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Sample records for earthquakes occur frequently

  1. Receptor Editing Occurs Frequently during Normal B Cell Development

    PubMed Central

    Retter, Marc W.; Nemazee, David

    1998-01-01

    Allelic exclusion is established in development through a feedback mechanism in which the assembled immunoglobulin (Ig) suppresses further V(D)J rearrangement. But Ig expression sometimes fails to prevent further rearrangement. In autoantibody transgenic mice, reactivity of immature B cells with autoantigen can induce receptor editing, in which allelic exclusion is transiently prevented or reversed through nested light chain gene rearrangement, often resulting in altered B cell receptor specificity. To determine the extent of receptor editing in a normal, non-Ig transgenic immune system, we took advantage of the fact that λ light chain genes usually rearrange after κ genes. This allowed us to analyze κ loci in IgMλ+ cells to determine how frequently in-frame κ genes fail to suppress λ gene rearrangements. To do this, we analyzed recombined VκJκ genes inactivated by subsequent recombining sequence (RS) rearrangement. RS rearrangements delete portions of the κ locus by a V(D)J recombinase-dependent mechanism, suggesting that they play a role in receptor editing. We show that RS recombination is frequently induced by, and inactivates, functionally rearranged κ loci, as nearly half (47%) of the RS-inactivated VκJκ joins were in-frame. These findings suggest that receptor editing occurs at a surprisingly high frequency in normal B cells. PMID:9763602

  2. Loss of BAP1 Expression Occurs Frequently in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Andrici, Juliana; Goeppert, Benjamin; Sioson, Loretta; Clarkson, Adele; Renner, Marcus; Stenzinger, Albrecht; Tayao, Michael; Watson, Nicole; Farzin, Mahtab; Toon, Christopher W; Smith, Ross C; Mittal, Anubhav; Samra, Jaswinder S; Hugh, Thomas J; Chou, Angela; Lawlor, Rita T; Weichert, Wilko; Schirmacher, Peter; Sperandio, Nicola; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Scarpa, Aldo; Gill, Anthony J

    2016-01-01

    BRCA1-associated protein 1 (BAP1) is a deubiquitinating enzyme that functions as a tumor suppressor gene. Double hit BAP1 inactivation has been reported in a range of tumor types, including intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), sometimes in association with germline mutation.We performed immunohistochemistry for BAP1 on a well-characterized cohort of 211 ICC patients undergoing surgical resection with curative intent at 3 institutions based in 3 different countries. The median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 36.5-86) and 108 (51%) were men. Negative staining for BAP1 (defined as completely absent nuclear staining in the presence of positive internal controls in nonneoplastic cells) occurred in 55 ICCs (26%). BAP1 loss predicted a strong trend toward improved median survival of 40.80 months (95% CI, 28.14-53.46) versus 24.87 months (95% CI, 18.73-31.01), P = 0.059). In a multivariate model including age, sex, BAP1 status, tumor stage, tumor grade, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size, female sex was associated with improved survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34-0.85), while advanced tumor stage and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.89; 95% CI, 1.09-3.28) correlated with decreased survival. In a multivariate analysis, high grade tumors were associated with BAP1 loss (odds ratio [OR] 3.32; 95% CI, 1.29-8.55), while lymphatic invasion was inversely associated with BAP1 loss (OR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.13-0.99).In conclusion, we observed a trend toward improved prognosis in ICC associated with absent expression of BAP1 and an association of BAP1 loss with higher histological grade and absent lymphatic invasion. Female sex was associated with improved survival while advanced tumor stage and lymphatic invasion were associated with decreased survival. PMID:26765459

  3. Loss of BAP1 Expression Occurs Frequently in Intrahepatic Cholangiocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Andrici, Juliana; Goeppert, Benjamin; Sioson, Loretta; Clarkson, Adele; Renner, Marcus; Stenzinger, Albrecht; Tayao, Michael; Watson, Nicole; Farzin, Mahtab; Toon, Christopher W.; Smith, Ross C.; Mittal, Anubhav; Samra, Jaswinder S.; Hugh, Thomas J.; Chou, Angela; Lawlor, Rita T.; Weichert, Wilko; Schirmacher, Peter; Sperandio, Nicola; Ruzzenente, Andrea; Scarpa, Aldo; Gill, Anthony J.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract BRCA1-associated protein 1 (BAP1) is a deubiquitinating enzyme that functions as a tumor suppressor gene. Double hit BAP1 inactivation has been reported in a range of tumor types, including intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), sometimes in association with germline mutation. We performed immunohistochemistry for BAP1 on a well-characterized cohort of 211 ICC patients undergoing surgical resection with curative intent at 3 institutions based in 3 different countries. The median age at diagnosis was 65 years (range, 36.5–86) and 108 (51%) were men. Negative staining for BAP1 (defined as completely absent nuclear staining in the presence of positive internal controls in nonneoplastic cells) occurred in 55 ICCs (26%). BAP1 loss predicted a strong trend toward improved median survival of 40.80 months (95% CI, 28.14–53.46) versus 24.87 months (95% CI, 18.73–31.01), P = 0.059). In a multivariate model including age, sex, BAP1 status, tumor stage, tumor grade, lymphovascular invasion, and tumor size, female sex was associated with improved survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.54; 95% CI, 0.34–0.85), while advanced tumor stage and lymphovascular invasion (HR 1.89; 95% CI, 1.09–3.28) correlated with decreased survival. In a multivariate analysis, high grade tumors were associated with BAP1 loss (odds ratio [OR] 3.32; 95% CI, 1.29–8.55), while lymphatic invasion was inversely associated with BAP1 loss (OR 0.36; 95% CI, 0.13–0.99). In conclusion, we observed a trend toward improved prognosis in ICC associated with absent expression of BAP1 and an association of BAP1 loss with higher histological grade and absent lymphatic invasion. Female sex was associated with improved survival while advanced tumor stage and lymphatic invasion were associated with decreased survival. PMID:26765459

  4. Frequent excitations of T waves by earthquakes in the South Mariana Arc

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Po-Fei; Chen, Kai-Xun; Cheng, Hui-Yun

    2015-02-01

    We used broadband stations in Taiwan and on the Ryukyu Arc islands to investigate T waves induced by earthquakes in the Izu-Bonin-Mariana subduction zone. Of the 48 earthquakes that took place in 2005, 17 earthquakes exhibited T-wave signals consistent with predicted arrival times at stations. Of theses T-excited events, 13 were located in the South Mariana Arc, where the isobaths exhibit strong concave curvature, and were predominantly of normal faulting type. The energies of observed T waves were used quantitatively to evaluate the relative efficiency of receiver-side acoustic-elastic conversions by Gamma calculations. Results show that the steep slopes of offshore bathymetry together with nearly perpendicular angles of back azimuth relative to local isobaths are suitable conditions for T waves observations. In 2010, two clusters of repeated moderate earthquakes in the north and south ends of the Mariana Arc displayed stark contrasts in terms of T-wave excitations despite their normal faulting type. Examining of this discrepancy indicate that a specific curvature together with a specific radiation pattern accounts for the frequent excitations of T waves from shallow earthquakes in the South Mariana Arc.

  5. Tsunami earthquake can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench—Historical and geological evidence for the 1677 earthquake and tsunami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yanagisawa, H.; Goto, K.; Sugawara, D.; Kanamaru, K.; Iwamoto, N.; Takamori, Y.

    2016-05-01

    Since the 11 March 2011 Tohoku earthquake, the mechanisms of large earthquakes along the Japan Trench have been intensely investigated. However, characteristics of tsunami earthquakes, which trigger unusually large tsunami, remain unknown. The earthquake of 4 November 1677 was a tsunami earthquake striking the southern part of the Japan Trench. Its source mechanism remains unclear. This study elucidates the fault slip and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake and tsunami based on integrated analyses of historical documents, tsunami deposits, and numerical simulation. Geological survey results, the analytical results of thickness and grain size distributions and diatoms, revealed that tsunami deposits in a small pond at 11 m elevation were probably formed by the 1677 event. This finding and historical descriptions are useful as important constraint conditions to estimate unusually large fault slips and moment magnitude of the 1677 earthquake. Numerical simulation results reveal that 8.34-8.63 moment magnitude with the large 11-16 m slip area is necessary to satisfy the constraint conditions. This fault slip and magnitude are equivalent to those of the 1896 Sanriku earthquake: a well-known tsunami earthquake in the northern part of the Japan Trench. We therefore conclude that a tsunami earthquake of moment magnitude 8.3-8.6 with unusually large slip can occur elsewhere along the Japan Trench. This point should be considered for future tsunami risk assessment along the Japan Trench and along any trench having similar tectonic settings to those of the Japan Trench.

  6. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a ...

  7. Earthquakes

    MedlinePlus

    An earthquake happens when two blocks of the earth suddenly slip past one another. Earthquakes strike suddenly, violently, and without warning at any time of the day or night. If an earthquake occurs in a populated area, it may cause ...

  8. Negative surveillance endoscopy occurs frequently in patients with short-segment non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus.

    PubMed

    Melson, J; Desai, V; Greenspan, M; Yau, S; Abdalla, M; Dhanekula, R; Mobarhan, S; Shapiro, D; Losurdo, J; Jakate, S

    2015-10-01

    Surveillance endoscopy of non-dysplastic Barrett's esophagus (NDBE) that fails to detect intestinal metaplasia (IM), or negative surveillance, is known to occur in clinical practice, although the frequency and possible outcomes in a large cohort in clinical practice is not well described. The goals of this study were to define frequency in which negative surveillance occurs and endoscopic outcomes in a screening cohort of short segment NDBE. A retrospective cohort (n = 184) of patients newly diagnosed with short segment NDBE at an outpatient academic tertiary care center between 2003 and 2011 were reviewed. Only those with one or more surveillance endoscopies were included to define a frequency of negative surveillance. Included patients were further assessed if they had two or more surveillance endoscopies and were classified into groups as sampling error or negative IM on consecutive surveillances based on the results of their surveillance endoscopies. The frequency of a negative surveillance endoscopy in all short-segment NDBE patients was 19.66% (92 endoscopic exams were negative for IM of 468 total surveillance exams). A negative surveillance endoscopy occurred in 40.76% (n = 75) patients. Sampling error occurred in 44.12% and negative IM on consecutive surveillance endoscopies in 55.88% of those with ≥ 2 surveillance endoscopies and an initially negative surveillance exam. The frequency of negative IM on consecutive surveillances was 19.00% of all patients who had two surveillance endoscopies. When the index diagnostic Barrett's esophagus segment length was < 1 cm, 32.14% (18/56) of all patients (with ≥ 2 surveillance endoscopies) had negative IM on consecutive surveillance endoscopies. Negative surveillance occurs frequently in short-segment NDBE. When an initial negative surveillance endoscopy occurs, it may be due to either a sampling error or lack of detectable IM on surveillance exam. When a <1 cm segment of NDBE is diagnosed, a significant

  9. Mortality-based Quantification of Injury Severity for Frequently Occurring Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Ashley A.; Barnard, Ryan T.; Kilgo, Patrick D.; Martin, R. Shayn; Stitzel, Joel D.

    2013-01-01

    The study purpose was to develop mortality-based metrics of injury severity for frequent motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries. Injury severity was quantified with mortality-based metrics for 240 injuries comprising the top 95% most frequently occurring AIS 2+ injuries in the National Automotive Sampling System – Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000–2011. Mortality risk ratios (MRRs) were computed by dividing the number of deaths by occurrences for each of the 240 injuries using National Trauma Data Bank Research Data System (NTDB-RDS) MVC cases. MRRMAIS was computed using only patients with a maximum AIS (MAIS) equal to the AIS severity of a given injury. Each injury had an associated MRR and MRRMAIS which ranged from zero (0% mortality representing low severity) to one (100% or universal mortality representing high severity). Injuries with higher MRR and MRRMAIS values are considered more severe because they resulted in a greater proportion of deaths among injured patients. The results illustrated an overall positive trend between AIS severity and the MRR and MRRMAIS values as expected, but showed large variations in MRR and MRRMAIS for some injuries of the same AIS severity. Mortality differences up to 83% (MRR) and 54% (MRRMAIS) were observed for injuries of the same AIS severity. The MRR-based measures of injury severity indicate that some lower AIS severity injuries may result in as many deaths as higher AIS severity injuries. This data-driven determination of injury severity using MRR and MRRMAIS provides a supplement or an alternative to AIS severity classification. PMID:24406961

  10. Mortality-based Quantification of Injury Severity for Frequently Occurring Motor Vehicle Crash Injuries.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Ashley A; Barnard, Ryan T; Kilgo, Patrick D; Martin, R Shayn; Stitzel, Joel D

    2013-01-01

    The study purpose was to develop mortality-based metrics of injury severity for frequent motor vehicle crash (MVC) injuries. Injury severity was quantified with mortality-based metrics for 240 injuries comprising the top 95% most frequently occurring AIS 2+ injuries in the National Automotive Sampling System - Crashworthiness Data System (NASS-CDS) 2000-2011. Mortality risk ratios (MRRs) were computed by dividing the number of deaths by occurrences for each of the 240 injuries using National Trauma Data Bank Research Data System (NTDB-RDS) MVC cases. MRRMAIS was computed using only patients with a maximum AIS (MAIS) equal to the AIS severity of a given injury. Each injury had an associated MRR and MRRMAIS which ranged from zero (0% mortality representing low severity) to one (100% or universal mortality representing high severity). Injuries with higher MRR and MRRMAIS values are considered more severe because they resulted in a greater proportion of deaths among injured patients. The results illustrated an overall positive trend between AIS severity and the MRR and MRRMAIS values as expected, but showed large variations in MRR and MRRMAIS for some injuries of the same AIS severity. Mortality differences up to 83% (MRR) and 54% (MRRMAIS) were observed for injuries of the same AIS severity. The MRR-based measures of injury severity indicate that some lower AIS severity injuries may result in as many deaths as higher AIS severity injuries. This data-driven determination of injury severity using MRR and MRRMAIS provides a supplement or an alternative to AIS severity classification. PMID:24406961

  11. Source Mechanisms of Destructive Tsunamigenic Earthquakes occurred along the Major Subduction Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay; Ulutaş, Ergin

    2016-04-01

    Subduction zones, where an oceanic plate is subducted down into the mantle by tectonic forces, are potential tsunami locations. Many big, destructive and tsunamigenic earthquakes (Mw > 7.5) and high amplitude tsunami waves are observed along the major subduction zones particularly near Indonesia, Japan, Kuril and Aleutan Islands, Gulf of Alaska, Southern America. Not all earthquakes are tsunamigenic; in order to generate a tsunami, the earthquake must occur under or near the ocean, be large, and create significant vertical movements of the seafloor. It is also known that tsunamigenic earthquakes release their energy over a couple of minutes, have long source time functions and slow-smooth ruptures. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent destructive ten earthquakes (Mw ≥ 7.5) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30° - 90°, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained finite-fault rupture histories of those earthquakes to determine the faulting area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. We applied a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source, and customized it to estimate the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic energy release of earthquakes. Inversion results exhibit that recent tsunamigenic earthquakes show dominantly thrust faulting mechanisms with small amount of strike-slip components. Their focal depths are also relatively shallow (h < 40 km). As an example, the September 16, 2015 Illapel (Chile) earthquake (Mw: 8.3; h: 26 km

  12. Analysis of Geomagnetic Variations Related to Earthquakes Location: Occurred in and around the Korean Peninsula from 2012 to 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Min, D.; Oh, S.; Hong, J.

    2015-12-01

    This study aims at the correlation analysis of geomagnetic variations related to earthquake locations occurred in and around the Korean peninsula from 2012 to 2014. The wavelet based semblance technique was used to confirm the geomagnetic variations related to earthquakes. And as a result of the analysis, a pattern of consistent geomagnetic variations has been found from the earthquake occurred within 100 km radius at observation site. And similar correlation between earthquake location and Z-field geomagnetic data was also confirmed by the wavelet-based semblance analysis of geomagnetic data. Geomagnetic data obtained from Cheong-yang observatory, which have shown high quality, was used in analysis mainly. Geomagnetic variations from the earthquakes with magnitude greater than 3 within 100 km radius of the Cheng-yang observatory (figure 1) showed meaningful result. In addition, geomagnetic data from Bohyunsan observatory were also used to ensure the validity of the correlation between earthquake and Z-field geomagnetic data.

  13. Large submarine earthquakes occurred worldwide, 1 year period (June 2013 to June 2014), - contribution to the understanding of tsunamigenic potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omira, R.; Vales, D.; Marreiros, C.; Carrilho, F.

    2015-03-01

    This paper is a contribution to a better understanding of tsunamigenic potential from large submarine earthquakes. Here, we analyse the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes occurred worldwide with magnitudes around Mw 7.0 and greater, during a period of 1 year, from June 2013 to June 2014. The analysis involves earthquake model evaluation, tsunami numerical modelling, and sensors' records analysis in order to confirm the generation or not of a tsunami following the occurrence of an earthquake. We also investigate and discuss the sensitivity of tsunami generation to the earthquake parameters recognized to control the tsunami occurrence, including the earthquake magnitude, focal mechanism and fault rupture depth. A total of 23 events, with magnitudes ranging from Mw 6.7 to Mw 8.1 and hypocenter depths varying from 10 up to 585 km, have been analyzed in this study. Among them, 52% are thrust faults, 35% are strike-slip faults, and 13% are normal faults. Most analyzed events have been occurred in the Pacific Ocean. This study shows that about 39% of the analyzed earthquakes caused tsunamis that were recorded by different sensors with wave amplitudes varying from few centimetres to about 2 m. Some of them caused inundations of low-lying coastal areas and significant damages in harbours. On the other hand, tsunami numerical modeling shows that some of the events, considered as non-tsunamigenic, might trigger small tsunamis that were not recorded due to the absence of sensors in the near-field areas. We also find that the tsunami generation is mainly dependent of the earthquake focal mechanism and other parameters such as the earthquake hypocenter depth and the magnitude. The results of this study can help on the compilation of tsunami catalogs.

  14. Simulation of Strong Ground Motion for the 7.6Mw Kashmir Earthquake Occurred on 8 Oct 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naveed, A.; Muhammad sohail, K.

    2015-12-01

    The Mw 7.6 Kashmir earthquake which struck the northern area of Pakistan , the Kashmir region on 8 October 2005.The epicenter was located 18km north-northeast of Muzaffarabad, with a focal depth of 26km and it occurred in the Hazara-kashmir syntaxial bend near Main Mantle Thrust (MMT). This is one of the most devastating earthquakes occurred along Himalayan Arc and brought more than 80,000 deaths and more than 5.2 billion USD economical loss. The earthquake had duration of 25s and 75km rupture length along the surface. In order to investigate the strong motion caused by this earthquake, we simulate the Kashmir earthquake by the Curved grid finite difference method (CG-FDM). The finite-fault rupture, real topography variations and modified crustal model are considered. Simulated results are compared with available records, showing good mutual agreement between the synthetic and observed ground motions. According to the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), the intensity of four observed points had reached scale IX, whereas our simulated results show those points are located in the regions with our predicted intensity scale IX or VIII. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and Peak ground velocity (PGV) are most important parameters for hazard analysis, and our results are sufficiently coincide with their observed values. Finally, we also discuss the significant effect of surface topography on ground motion resulting by the Earthquake.

  15. Linking fossil reefs with earthquakes: Geologic insight to where induced seismicity occurs in Alberta

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schultz, Ryan; Corlett, Hilary; Haug, Kristine; Kocon, Ken; MacCormack, Kelsey; Stern, Virginia; Shipman, Todd

    2016-03-01

    Recently, a significant increase in North American, midcontinent earthquakes has been associated with contemporaneous development of petroleum resources. Despite the proliferation of drilling throughout sedimentary basins worldwide, earthquakes are only induced at a small fraction of wells. In this study, we focus on cases of induced seismicity where high-resolution data are available in the central Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Our regional comparison of induced earthquake depths suggests basement-controlled tectonics. Complementary to these findings, hypocenters of induced seismicity clusters coincide with the margins of Devonian carbonate reefs. We interpret this spatial correspondence as the result of geographically biased activation potential, possibly as a consequence of reef nucleation preference to paleobathymetric highs associated with Precambrian basement tectonics. This finding demonstrates the importance of geologic/tectonic factors to earthquake induction, in addition to industrial operational parameters. In fact, the observation of induced seismicity silhouetting deep fossil reef systems may be a useful tool to identify future regions with increased seismogenic potential.

  16. ANALYSIS OF LABOUR ACCIDENTS OCCURRING IN DISASTER RESTORATION WORK FOLLOWING THE NIIGATA CHUETSU EARTHQUAKE (2004) AND THE NIIGATA CHUETSU-OKI EARTHQUAKE (2007)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itoh, Kazuya; Noda, Masashi; Kikkawa, Naotaka; Hori, Tomohito; Tamate, Satoshi; Toyosawa, Yasuo; Suemasa, Naoaki

    Labour accidents in disaster-relief and disaster restoration work following the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake (2004) and the Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake (2007) were analysed and characterised in order to raise awareness of the risks and hazards in such work. The Niigata Chuetsu-oki Earthquake affected houses and buildings rather than roads and railways, which are generally disrupted due to landslides or slope failures caused by earthquakes. In this scenario, the predominant type of accident is a "fall to lower level," which increases mainly due to the fact that labourers are working to repair houses and buildings. On the other hand, landslides and slope failures were much more prevalent in the Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake, resulting in more accidents occurring in geotechnical works rather than in construction works. Therefore, care should be taken in preventing "fall to lower level" accidents associated with repair work on the roofs of low-rise houses, "cut or abrasion" accidents due to the demolition of damaged houses and "caught in or compressed by equipment" accidents in road works and water and sewage works.

  17. Neural repetition suppression in ventral occipito-temporal cortex occurs during conscious and unconscious processing of frequent stimuli.

    PubMed

    Vidal, Juan R; Perrone-Bertolotti, Marcela; Levy, Jonathan; De Palma, Luca; Minotti, Lorella; Kahane, Philippe; Bertrand, Olivier; Lutz, Antoine; Jerbi, Karim; Lachaux, Jean-Philippe

    2014-07-15

    Stimulus repetition can produce neural response attenuation in stimulus-category selective networks within the occipito-temporal lobe. It is hypothesized that this neural suppression reflects the functional sharpening of local neuronal assemblies which boosts information processing efficiency. This neural suppression phenomenon has been mainly reported during conditions of conscious stimulus perception. The question remains whether frequent stimuli processed in the absence of conscious perception also induce repetition suppression in those specialized networks. Using rare intracranial EEG recordings in the ventral occipito-temporal cortex (VOTC) of human epileptic patients we investigated neural repetition suppression in conditions of conscious and unconscious visual processing of words. To this end, we used an orthogonal design manipulating respectively stimulus repetition (frequent vs. unique stimuli) and conscious perception (masked vs. unmasked stimuli). By measuring the temporal dynamics of high-frequency broadband gamma activity in VOTC and testing for main and interaction effects, we report that early processing of words in word-form selective networks exhibits a temporal cascade of modulations by stimulus repetition and masking: neuronal attenuation initially is observed in response to repeated words (irrespective of consciousness), that is followed by a second modulation contingent upon word reportability (irrespective of stimulus repetition). Later on (>300ms post-stimulus), a significant effect of conscious perception on the extent of repetition suppression was observed. The temporal dynamics of consciousness, the recognition memory processes and their interaction revealed in this study advance our understanding of their contributions to the neural mechanisms of word processing in VOTC. PMID:24667455

  18. Observation of ionospheric disturbances for earthquakes (M>4) occurred during June 2013 to July 2014 in Indonesia using wavelets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Revathi, R.; Lakshminarayana, S.; Koteswara Rao, S.; Ramesh, K. S.; Uday Kiran, K.

    2016-05-01

    Seismo-ionospheric perturbations are extensively studied for large earthquakes occurred over various parts of the world. Specific signatures of these natural events are observed in the Total electron content (TEC) data prior to their occurrence. Analysis of these natural disasters occurring at a specific location will help in their accurate detection and prediction. In this paper the Java region of Indonesia comprising of a belt of volcanic mountains, where a considerable number of events to analyze their characteristics in the ionosphere are considered for study. This region of Indonesia has an International Global Navigation Satellite System Station at Bakosturnal, Indonesia. Vertical total electron content data on the earthquake day is analyzed for 13 events occurred during June 2013 to July 2014.

  19. Long-Term RST Analysis of Anomalous TIR Sequences in Relation with Earthquakes Occurred in Greece in the Period 2004-2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eleftheriou, Alexander; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Lacava, Teodosio; Lisi, Mariano; Paciello, Rossana; Pergola, Nicola; Vallianatos, Filippos; Tramutoli, Valerio

    2016-01-01

    Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short-term (from days to weeks) forecast. However, a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated with the complex process of preparation for major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameters (the Earth's emitted radiation in the Thermal InfraRed spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M ≥ 4 earthquakes occurred in Greece in between 2004 and 2013. The Robust Satellite Technique (RST) data analysis approach and Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies (RETIRA) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, significant sequences of TIR anomalies (SSTAs) in 10 years (2004-2013) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager on board the Meteosat Second Generation satellite. Taking into account the physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrences, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability—CSEP—Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 93 % of all identified SSTAs occur in the prefixed space-time window around ( M ≥ 4) earthquake's time and location of occurrence with a false positive rate smaller than 7 %. Molchan error diagram analysis shows that such a correlation is far to be achievable by chance notwithstanding the huge amount of missed events due to frequent space/time data gaps produced by the presence of clouds over the scene. Achieved results, and particularly the very low rate of false positives registered

  20. Long-term RST analysis of anomalous TIR sequences in relation with earthquakes occurred in Turkey in the period 2004-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lisi, Mariano; Corrado, Angelo; Filizzola, Carolina; Genzano, Nicola; Paciello, Rossana; Pergola, Nicola; Tramutoli, Valerio

    2016-04-01

    Real-time integration of multi-parametric observations is expected to accelerate the process toward improved, and operationally more effective, systems for time-Dependent Assessment of Seismic Hazard (t-DASH) and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast. However a very preliminary step in this direction is the identification of those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of major earthquakes. In this paper one of these parameter (the Earth's emitted radiation in the Thermal Infra-Red spectral region) is considered for its possible correlation with M≥4 earthquakes occurred in Turkey in between 2004 and 2015. The RST (Robust Satellite Technique) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to preliminarily define, and then to identify, Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) in 12 years (1 April 2004- 31 October 2015) of daily TIR images acquired by the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite. Taking into account physical models proposed for justifying the existence of a correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquakes occurrence, specific validation rules (in line with the ones used by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability - CSEP - Project) have been defined to drive a retrospective correlation analysis process. The analysis shows that more than 67% of all identified SSTAs occur in the pre-fixed space-time window around the occurrence time and location of earthquakes (M≥4), with a false positive rate smaller than 33%. Moreover, to better qualify the possible contribution of the use of SSTAs in the framework of a multiparametric system for a t-DASH, a Molchan error diagram analysis was applied in order to verify the actual SSTAs added value in comparison with a random alarm function. Notwithstanding the

  1. Source Mechanisms of Recent Earthquakes occurred in the Fethiye-Rhodes Basin and Anaximander Seamounts (SW Turkey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yolsal-Çevikbilen, Seda; Taymaz, Tuncay

    2015-04-01

    Understanding the active tectonics of southern Turkey involves integrating earthquake source parameters with the regional tectonics. In this respect, seismological studies have played important roles in deciphering tectonic deformations and existing stress accumulations in the region. This study is concerned with the source mechanism parameters and spatio-temporal finite-fault slip distributions of recent earthquakes occurred along the Pliny-Strabo Trench (PST), which constitutes the eastern part of the Hellenic subduction zone in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea Region, and along the Fethiye-Burdur Fault Zone (SW Turkey). The study area is located at the junction of the Hellenic and Cyprus arcs along which the African plate plunges northwards beneath the Aegean Sea and the Anatolian block. Bathymetry and topography including large-scale tectonic structures such as the Rhodes Basin, Anaximander Seamounts, the Florence Rise, the Isparta Angle, the Taurus Mountains, and Kyrenia Range also reflect the tectonic complexities in the region. In this study, we performed point-source inversions by using teleseismic long-period P- and SH- and broad-band P-waveforms recorded by the Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks (FDSN) and the Global Digital Seismograph Network (GDSN) stations. We obtained source mechanism parameters and finite-fault slip distributions of recent Fethiye-Rhodes earthquakes (Mw ≥ 5.0) by comparing the shapes and amplitudes of long period P- and SH-waveforms, recorded in the distance range of 30 - 90 degrees, with synthetic waveforms. We further obtained rupture histories of the earthquakes to determine the fault area (fault length and width), maximum displacement, rupture duration and stress drop. Inversion results exhibit that recent earthquakes show left-lateral strike-slip faulting mechanisms with relatively deeper focal depths (h > 40 km) consistent with tectonic characteristics of the region, for example, the June 10, 2012 Fethiye earthquake (Mw

  2. Sensitization of skin mast cells with IgE antibodies to Culicoides allergens occurs frequently in clinically healthy horses.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Bettina; Miller, William H; Erb, Hollis N; Lunn, D Paul; Antczak, Douglas F

    2009-11-15

    in the activation of mast cells or basophils in young horses and their role in the sensitization of adult horses remains unclear. Sensitization to Culicoides allergen in the absence of clinical disease was frequently found in horses of all age groups. Because many clinically healthy horses developed skin reactions to this allergen, sensitization results are useful to diagnose Culicoides-induced allergy only in horses with allergic conditions. PMID:19836083

  3. Rupture process of four medium-sized earthquakes that occurred in the Gulf of California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    RodríGuez-Lozoya, HéCtor E.; Quintanar, Luis; Ortega, Roberto; Rebollar, Cecilio J.; Yagi, Yuji

    2008-10-01

    Four medium-sized earthquakes (Mw Global CMT project 5.5, 5.6, 5.9, 6.3; hereinafter named Topolobampo, Angel de la Guarda, San Lorenzo, and Loreto earthquakes, respectively) located in the Gulf of California Extensional Province were studied to obtain their kinematic rupture processes. A network of broadband seismic stations located around the Gulf of California recorded the events (Network of Autonomously Recording Seismographs-Baja and Red Sísmica de Banda Ancha). Inversion of the seismic moment tensor and body waveform modeling were used to obtain the fault geometry and slip distribution on the fault plane, respectively. From these analyses, we obtained source depths of the order of 5.5 ± 0.5 km. We found also that the source rupture processes of the Topolobampo and Angel de la Guarda events have simple moment rate functions and source time durations of 5.0 ± 1.2 and 4.2 ± 1.2 s, respectively. The Topolobampo event was a right-lateral strike-slip event, and Angel de la Guarda was a normal event. The San Lorenzo and Loreto shocks show a rather complex rupture, with source time durations of 7.5 ± 1.2 and 9.0 ± 1.2 s, respectively. For these earthquakes, we tested the resolution of numerical results, performing an extra inversion with smoother waveforms. The new inversions do not show the separated patches of slip, as in the first analysis, but the slip distribution has an elongated shape not characteristic of simple events. We cannot therefore conclude rupture propagation for the San Lorenzo event, although the extent of the patch for the Loreto earthquake agrees with aftershock locations. Estimates of source time durations for these earthquakes are at the upper limit of the values found for earthquakes elsewhere. Directions of P axes are in the same order of magnitude as the maximum horizontal stress obtained for the so-called Gulf of California stress province from borehole elongations, focal plane solutions, and fault slip data.

  4. Tension crack characteristics of surface ruptures of 2 strong earthquakes recently occurred along reverse faults in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Mingjun; Dai, Aopeng; Zhang, Feng

    2014-05-01

    Field investigations show that there are some tension cracks in the surface ruptures of 2 strong earthquakes recently occurred along reverse faults with strike-slip component in China. Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake occurred on April 14, 2010 in Qinghai, China produced a ~65 km long co-seismic surface rupture with a strike of 310°, which is distributed along Ganzi-Yushu fault that is a reverse fault with strike-slip component in the Qinghai—Tibetan Plateau. The surface rupture of Yushu Ms7.1 earthqake consists of shear, transtensional cracks, transpressional cracks, tension cracks and mole tracks. Some tension cracks occur on the top of small uplifts and the cracking course is from surface to undergound for some tension cracks are shallow. The small uplifts are actually anticlines produced by a regional and deep compressional stress field, but there is a local tensional stress field on the top of the anticlines. Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake on 20 April 20, 2013 in Sichuan, China occurred on the southern segment of the Longmenshan fault zone with a NE strike which is also a reverse fault zone with strike-slip component, but only a co-seismic surface rupture 80m long with a NW strike was found without any NE-striking surface rupture found. The surface rupture shows the form of tension cracks on a top of a small uplift. There are two sets of fresh striation on the surface rupture plane, the striation with larger plunge angles usually only remains above the range 10-20cm below the ground surface, which is covered by the striation with smaller plunging angles. The comprehensive analysis shows that the surface rupture during the Ms7.0 Lushan earthquake at first experienced thrusting, then sinistral strike-slip, and tension cracking at last. In general, some tension cracks of the surface ruptures from Yushu Ms7.1 earthquake on April 14, 2010 and Lushan Ms7.0 earthquake on 20 April 2013 may be produced by the local tensional stress field, but they also reflect the regional and deep

  5. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Markle, Sandra

    1987-01-01

    A learning unit about earthquakes includes activities for primary grade students, including making inferences and defining operationally. Task cards are included for independent study on earthquake maps and earthquake measuring. (CB)

  6. Combining Seismic Arrays to Image Detailed Rupture Properties of Large Earthquakes: Evidence for Frequent Triggering of Multiple Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishii, M.; Kiser, E.

    2010-12-01

    Imaging detailed rupture characteristics using the back-projection method, which time-reverses waveforms to their source, has become feasible in recent years due to the availability of data from large aperture arrays with dense station coverage. In contrast to conventional techniques, this method can quickly and indiscriminately provide the spatio-temporal details of rupture propagation. Though many studies have utilized the back-projection method with a single regional array, the limited azimuthal coverage often leads to skewed resolution. In this study, we enhance the imaging power by combining data from two arrays, i.e., the Transportable Array (TA) in the United States and the High Sensitivity Seismographic Network (Hi-net) in Japan. This approach suppresses artifacts and achieves good lateral resolution by improving distance and azimuthal coverage while maintaining waveform coherence. We investigate four large events using this method: the August 15, 2007 Pisco, Peru earthquake, the September 12, 2007 Southern Sumatra earthquake, the September 29, 2009 Samoa Islands earthquake, and the February 27, 2010 Maule, Chile earthquake. In every case, except the Samoa Islands event, the distance of one of the arrays from the epicenter requires us to use the direct P wave and core phases in the back-projection. One of the common features of the rupture characteristics obtained from the back-projection analysis is spatio-temporal rupture discontinuities, or discrete subevents. Both the size of the gaps and the timing between subevents suggest that multiple segments are involved during giant earthquakes, and that they trigger slip on other faults. For example, the 2009 Samoa Islands event began with a rupture propagating north for about 15 seconds followed by a much larger rupture that originated 30 km northwest of the terminus of the first event and propagated back toward the southeast. The involvement of multiple rupture segments with different slip characteristics

  7. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Walter, Edward J.

    1977-01-01

    Presents an analysis of the causes of earthquakes. Topics discussed include (1) geological and seismological factors that determine the effect of a particular earthquake on a given structure; (2) description of some large earthquakes such as the San Francisco quake; and (3) prediction of earthquakes. (HM)

  8. Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pakiser, Louis C.

    One of a series of general interest publications on science topics, the booklet provides those interested in earthquakes with an introduction to the subject. Following a section presenting an historical look at the world's major earthquakes, the booklet discusses earthquake-prone geographic areas, the nature and workings of earthquakes, earthquake…

  9. An analytical method about anomalies on the synthetical variables of the multiple seismic activity parameters-taking 2 M =7 earthquakes occurring in Qinghai as examples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Heqing; Yang, Mingzhi

    2014-05-01

    Based on the random field theory, a new method of the synthetical variables of the multiple seismic activity parameters has been proposed. This method is that the natural perpendicular function development has been used on the random field function of seismic activity first. And then the synthetical variables constituted of the linear combination of four seismic activity parameters, i.e. the seismic strain release E-, the average distance between each two earthquakes D, the average time interval between each two earthquakes T , and the earthquake occurrence rate N have been studied. Though the analysis on the synthetical variables about the field, the seismic activity anomalies before large earthquakes have been drew. As the examples, the Gonghe M=7.0 earthquake occurred in Qinghai, 1990 and the Yushu M=7.1 earthquake occurred in Qinghai, 2010 have been discussed. The results have showed that before the two M=7 earthquakes, the main synthetical variables have all showed obvious abnormal variations, displaying better corresponding relationship with these two earthquakes. The synthetical variables of seismic activity field can focus on the slight differences which are included in each original variable. And the abnormal variations showed from the synthetical variables are as obvious as possible. The authors think that the synthetical variable method is possibly an effective analytic technique. Key words: seismic activity field; natural perpendicular function development; synthetical variables; anomaly; Earthquake example

  10. Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roper, Paul J.; Roper, Jere Gerard

    1974-01-01

    Describes the causes and effects of earthquakes, defines the meaning of magnitude (measured on the Richter Magnitude Scale) and intensity (measured on a modified Mercalli Intensity Scale) and discusses earthquake prediction and control. (JR)

  11. Source parameters of 2015 earthquake sequence occurred at the northwestern Romanian border

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borleanu, Felix; Popa, Mihaela; Radulian, Mircea; Oros, Eugen

    2016-04-01

    Between 19 July and 05 August, 2015 a seismic sequence occurred at the border region between the northwestern part of Romania and Ukraine. The largest event of 3.8 ML occurred on 19 July at a depth of 4.6 km. The sequence is the most significant seismic activity instrumentally recorded in the northwestern part of Romania, a region generally characterized by low seismic activity.. The location results, obtained by JHD and HYPO-DD techniques, show a NE-SW alignment along the Faget Fault. The focal depth estimation reveals a variation in depth delimiting two fault segments: one above 4 km depth, the other below 6 km depth. The hypocenter clustering is attributed to a non-breakable structure existing between the two segments. The fault plane solutions obtained using the first P-wave polarities and waveform inversion are consistent and show a strike slip fault plane solution.

  12. Solar wind ion density variations that preceded the M6+ earthquakes occurring on a global scale between 3 and 15 September 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataldi, Gabriele; Cataldi, Daniele; Straser, Valentino

    2015-04-01

    Between 3 and 15 September 2013 on Earth were recorded nine M6+ earthquakes: Canada M6,1 earthquake occurred on 3 September at 20:19 UTC; Japan M6,5 earthquake occurred on 4 September at 00:18 UTC; Canada M6,0 earthquake occurred on 4 September at 00:23 UTC; Alaska M6,5 earthquake occurred on 4 September at 02:32 UTC; Alaska M6,0 earthquake occurred on 4 September at 06:27 UTC; Northern Mid-Atlantic Ridge M6,0 earthquake occurred on 5 September at 04:01 UTC; Guatemala M6,4 earthquake occurred on 7 September at 00:13 UTC; Central East Pacific Rise M6,1 earthquake occurred on 11 September at 12:44 UTC; Alaska M6,1 earthquake occurred on 15 September at 16:21 UTC. The authors analyzed the modulation of solar wind ion density during the period from 1 to 18 September 2013 to determine whether the nine earthquakes were preceded by a variations of the solar wind ion density and for testing a method to be applied in the future also for the prediction of tsunami. The data on ion density used to realize the correlation study are represented by: solar wind ion density variation detected by ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) Satellite, in orbit near the L1 Lagrange point, at 1.5 million of km from Earth, in direction of the Sun. The instrument used to perform the measurement of the solar wind ion density is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument, equipped on the ACE Satellite. To conduct the study, the authors have taken in consideration the variation of the solar wind protons density that have these characteristics: differential proton flux 1060-1900 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 761-1220 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 310-580 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV) and differential proton flux 115-195 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV). This data set has been marked with the times (time markers) of M6+ earthquakes occurred on a global scale (the data on M6+ seismic activity are provided in real time by USGS, INGV and the CSEM) between

  13. Fusarium musae infected banana fruits as potential source of human fusariosis: May occur more frequently than we might think and hypotheses about infection.

    PubMed

    Triest, David; Piérard, Denis; De Cremer, Koen; Hendrickx, Marijke

    2016-01-01

    The banana fruit infecting fungus Fusarium musae was originally known as a distinct population within Fusarium verticillioides. However, recently, Fusarium musae was installed as a separate species and the first cases of human infection associated with Fusarium musae were found. In this article, we report an additional survey indicating that human pathogenic Fusarium musae infections may occur more frequently than we might think. Moreover, we evaluate the hypotheses on how infection can be acquired. A first hypothesis is that banana fruits act as carriers of Fusarium musae spores and thereby be the source of human infection with Fusarium musae. Acquisition is likely to be caused through contact with Fusarium musae contaminated banana fruits, either being imported or after traveling of the patient to a banana-producing country. An alternative hypothesis is that Fusarium musae is not only present on banana fruits, but also on other plant hosts or environmental sources. PMID:27195070

  14. Fusarium musae infected banana fruits as potential source of human fusariosis: May occur more frequently than we might think and hypotheses about infection

    PubMed Central

    Triest, David; Piérard, Denis; De Cremer, Koen; Hendrickx, Marijke

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT The banana fruit infecting fungus Fusarium musae was originally known as a distinct population within Fusarium verticillioides. However, recently, Fusarium musae was installed as a separate species and the first cases of human infection associated with Fusarium musae were found. In this article, we report an additional survey indicating that human pathogenic Fusarium musae infections may occur more frequently than we might think. Moreover, we evaluate the hypotheses on how infection can be acquired. A first hypothesis is that banana fruits act as carriers of Fusarium musae spores and thereby be the source of human infection with Fusarium musae. Acquisition is likely to be caused through contact with Fusarium musae contaminated banana fruits, either being imported or after traveling of the patient to a banana-producing country. An alternative hypothesis is that Fusarium musae is not only present on banana fruits, but also on other plant hosts or environmental sources. PMID:27195070

  15. Large submarine earthquakes that occurred worldwide in a 1-year period (June 2013 to June 2014) - a contribution to the understanding of tsunamigenic potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omira, R.; Vales, D.; Marreiros, C.; Carrilho, F.

    2015-10-01

    This paper is a contribution to a better understanding of the tsunamigenic potential of large submarine earthquakes. Here, we analyze the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes which have occurred worldwide with magnitudes around Mw = 7.0 and greater during a period of 1 year, from June 2013 to June 2014. The analysis involves earthquake model evaluation, tsunami numerical modeling, and sensors' records analysis in order to confirm the generation of a tsunami (or lack thereof) following the occurrence of an earthquake. We also investigate and discuss the sensitivity of tsunami generation to the earthquake parameters recognized to control tsunami occurrence, including the earthquake location, magnitude, focal mechanism and fault rupture depth. Through this analysis, we attempt to understand why some earthquakes trigger tsunamis and others do not, and how the earthquake source parameters are related to the potential of tsunami generation. We further discuss the performance of tsunami warning systems in detecting tsunamis and disseminating the alerts. A total of 23 events, with magnitudes ranging from Mw = 6.7 to Mw = 8.1, have been analyzed. This study shows that about 39 % of the analyzed earthquakes caused tsunamis that were recorded by different sensors with wave amplitudes varying from a few centimeters to about 2 m. Tsunami numerical modeling shows good agreement between simulated waveforms and recorded waveforms, for some events. On the other hand, simulations of tsunami generation predict that some of the events, considered as non-tsunamigenic, caused small tsunamis. We find that most generated tsunamis were caused by shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) and thrust faults that took place on/near the subduction zones. The results of this study can help the development of modified and improved versions of tsunami decision matrixes for various oceanic domains.

  16. Multifractal variability of Very Low Frequency (VLF) signal during Earthquakes (M greater than 5) occurred at Greece during the year 2011-2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sondhiya, Deepak Kumar; Gwal, Ashok Kumar; Verma, Shivali; Kasde, Satish Kumar; Sonakia, Anjana

    In this work Wavelet Transform Modulus Maxima (WTMM) based multifractal analysis method is used to extracts the earthquake precursory signatures from scaling characteristics of subionospheric Very Low Frequency (VLF) signals. We found specific dynamics of their fractal characteristics before the earthquake, appearance of the spike in the signal and increase of the fractal dimension. We analyze VLF signals of famous Turkey Bafa transmitter (N 370 24’, E 27019’) recorded by sudden Ionospheric Disturbance (SID) monitoring station located at South of France during the Earthquake occurred at Greece during the year 2011-2012. The analysis of VLF signal during some days before and after the occurrence of earthquake has been done. Keywords: Multifractal analysis, VLF signal, Sudden Ionospheric disturbances

  17. Earthquake!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hernandez, Hildo

    2000-01-01

    Examines the types of damage experienced by California State University at Northridge during the 1994 earthquake and what lessons were learned in handling this emergency are discussed. The problem of loose asbestos is addressed. (GR)

  18. Everyday Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Svec, Michael

    1996-01-01

    Describes methods to access current earthquake information from the National Earthquake Information Center. Enables students to build genuine learning experiences using real data from earthquakes that have recently occurred. (JRH)

  19. Solar wind proton density variations that preceded the M6+ earthquakes occurring on a global scale between 17 and 20 April 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataldi, Gabriele; Cataldi, Daniele; Straser, Valentino

    2015-04-01

    Between 17 and 20 April 2014 on Earth were recorded six M6+ earthquakes: Balleny Islands region M6,2 earthquake occurred on 17 April at 15:06 UTC; Solomon Islands M6,1 earthquake occurred on 18 April at 04:13 UTC; Mexico M7,2 earthquake occurred on 18 April at 14:27 UTC; Papua New Guinea M6,6 earthquake occurred on 19 April at 01:04 UTC; Papua New Guinea M7,5 earthquake occurred on 19 April at 13:28 UTC; Papua New Guinea M6,2 earthquake occurred on 20 April at 00:15 UTC. The authors analyzed the modulation of solar wind ion density during the period from 14 to 23 April 2014 to determine whether the six earthquakes were preceded by a variations of the solar wind ion density and for testing a method to be applied in the future also for the prediction of tsunami. The data on ion density used to realize the correlation study are represented by: solar wind ion density variation detected by ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) Satellite, in orbit near the L1 Lagrange point, at 1.5 million of km from Earth, in direction of the Sun. The instrument used to perform the measurement of the solar wind ion density is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument, equipped on the ACE Satellite. To conduct the study, the authors have taken in consideration the variation of the solar wind protons density that have these characteristics: differential proton flux 1060-1900 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 761-1220 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 310-580 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV) and differential proton flux 115-195 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV). This data set has been marked with the time data (time markers) of M6+ earthquakes occurred on a global scale between 17 and 20 April 2014 (the data on M6+ seismic activity are provided in real time by USGS, INGV and CSEM). The result of the analysis showed that the six M6+ earthquakes occurred on a global scale in the time period taken as a reference, were preceded by a significant variation of

  20. The First Results of Testing Methods and Algorithms for Automatic Real Time Identification of Waveforms Introduction from Local Earthquakes in Increased Level of Man-induced Noises for the Purposes of Ultra-short-term Warning about an Occurred Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gravirov, V. V.; Kislov, K. V.

    2009-12-01

    The chief hazard posed by earthquakes consists in their suddenness. The number of earthquakes annually recorded is in excess of 100,000; of these, over 1000 are strong ones. Great human losses usually occur because no devices exist for advance warning of earthquakes. It is therefore high time that mobile information automatic systems should be developed for analysis of seismic information at high levels of manmade noise. The systems should be operated in real time with the minimum possible computational delays and be able to make fast decisions. The chief statement of the project is that sufficiently complete information about an earthquake can be obtained in real time by examining its first onset as recorded by a single seismic sensor or a local seismic array. The essential difference from the existing systems consists in the following: analysis of local seismic data at high levels of manmade noise (that is, when the noise level may be above the seismic signal level), as well as self-contained operation. The algorithms developed during the execution of the project will be capable to be used with success for individual personal protection kits and for warning the population in earthquake-prone areas over the world. The system being developed for this project uses P and S waves as well. The difference in the velocities of these seismic waves permits a technique to be developed for identifying a damaging earthquake. Real time analysis of first onsets yields the time that remains before surface waves arrive and the damage potential of these waves. Estimates show that, when the difference between the earthquake epicenter and the monitored site is of order 200 km, the time difference between the arrivals of P waves and surface waves will be about 30 seconds, which is quite sufficient to evacuate people from potentially hazardous space, insertion of moderators at nuclear power stations, pipeline interlocking, transportation stoppage, warnings issued to rescue services

  1. Spectral-decomposition techniques for the identification of radon anomalies temporally associated with earthquakes occurring in the UK in 2002 and 2008.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crockett, R. G. M.; Gillmore, G. K.

    2009-04-01

    During the second half of 2002, the University of Northampton Radon Research Group operated two continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors 2.25 km apart in Northampton, in the (English) East Midlands. This period included the Dudley earthquake (22/09/2002) which was widely noticed by members of the public in the Northampton area. Also, at various periods during 2008 the Group has operated another pair of continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors similar distances apart in Northampton. One such period included the Market Rasen earthquake (27/02/2008) which was also widely noticed by members of the public in the Northampton area. During each period of monitoring, two time-series of radon readings were obtained, one from each detector. These have been analysed for evidence of simultaneous similar anomalies: the premise being that big disturbances occurring at big distances (in relation to the detector separation) should produce simultaneous similar anomalies but that simultaneous anomalies occurring by chance will be dissimilar. As previously reported, cross-correlating the two 2002 time-series over periods of 1-30 days duration, rolled forwards through the time-series at one-hour intervals produced two periods of significant correlation, i.e. two periods of simultaneous similar behaviour in the radon concentrations. One of these periods corresponded in time to the Dudley earthquake, the other corresponded in time to a smaller earthquake which occurred in the English Channel (26/08/2002). We here report subsequent investigation of the 2002 time-series and the 2008 time-series using spectral-decomposition techniques. These techniques have revealed additional simultaneous similar behaviour in the two radon concentrations, not revealed by the rolling correlation on the raw data. These correspond in time to the Manchester earthquake swarm of October 2002 and the Market Rasen earthquake of February 2008. The spectral-decomposition techniques effectively ‘de-noise' the

  2. The reasons why the M9 earthquake in the northeastern Japan subduction zone could not be anticipated and why it really occurred

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Matsuzawa, T.; Iio, Y.

    2011-12-01

    The M9 Tohoku earthquake on 11 March 2011 had a great impact on the seismologists all over the world. This is because the northeastern Japan subduction zone was one of the most investigated subduction zones and the interplate coupling there was thought to be too weak to generate M9 earthquakes. The bases of the judgment of weak coupling are as follows: (1) The portion of the Pacific plate subducting beneath the subduction zone is older than 100 my, which is older than most of the other ocean floors in the world. Note that although some researchers have casted doubt on the relationship between the M9 potential and plate convergence rate and back-arc spreading proposed by Ruff and Kanamori (1980) after the 2004 M9 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (e.g., McCaffrey, 2007, 2008; Stein and Okal, 2007), the dependency on the age of the oceanic plate had not been rejected. (2) Around 100 year geodetic survey shows dilatational areal strain is dominant in Tohoku (northeastern Honshu, Japan) (Hashimoto, 1990; Ishikawa and Hashimoto, 1999), indicating all the 'locked' areas on the plate boundary might be loosened by M7 earthquakes occurring with repeating intervals of several tens of years. (3) Although the analyses of GPS (e.g., Suwa et al., 2006) and small repeating earthquake data (Uchida and Matsuzawa, 2011) indicate a large 'locked' area off southern Tohoku, the data in the late 2000s show large portions of the locked area seemed to be released by large earthquakes of M6-7 and their afterslip. (4) The activity of moderate-sized earthquakes there is the highest in Japan. (5) Large interplate earthquakes with M6 or larger are usually followed by large afterslip whose scalar moment is sometimes as large as that of the seismic slip of the main shock. Moreover, Hasegawa et al. (2011) shows that the stress on the plate boundary was not large according to the stress rotation after the M9 earthquake. All of these observations indicate that the plate boundary was not strongly locked

  3. Earthquake swarms in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larsen, Tine B.; Voss, Peter H.; Dahl-Jensen, Trine

    2014-05-01

    Earthquake swarms occur primarily near active volcanoes and in areas with frequent tectonic activity. However, intraplate earthquake swarms are not an unknown phenomenon. They are located near zones of weakness, e.g. in regions with geological contrasts, where dynamic processes are active. An earthquake swarm is defined as a period of increased seismicity, in the form of a cluster of earthquakes of similar magnitude, occurring in the same general area, during a limited time period. There is no obvious main shock among the earthquakes in a swarm. Earthquake swarms occur in Greenland, which is a tectonically stable, intraplate environment. The first earthquake swarms in Greenland were detected more than 30 years ago in Northern and North-Eastern Greenland. However, detection of these low-magnitude events is challenging due to the enormous distances and the relatively sparse network of seismographs. The seismograph coverage of Greenland has vastly improved since the international GLISN-project was initiated in 2008. Greenland is currently coved by an open network of 19 BB seismographs, most of them transmitting data in real-time. Additionally, earthquake activity in Greenland is monitored by seismographs in Canada, Iceland, on Jan Mayen, and on Svalbard. The time-series of data from the GLISN network is still short, with the latest station been added in NW Greenland in 2013. However, the network has already proven useful in detecting several earthquake swarms. In this study we will focus on two swarms: one occurring near/on the East Greenland coast in 2008, and another swarm occurring in the Disko-area near the west coast of Greenland in 2010. Both swarms consist of earthquakes with local magnitudes between 1.9 and 3.2. The areas, where the swarms are located, are regularly active with small earthquakes. The earthquake swarms are analyzed in the context of the general seismicity and the possible relationship to the local geological conditions.

  4. A re-assessment of focal depth distributions in southern Iran, the Tien Shan and northern India: do earthquakes really occur in the continental mantle?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggi, A.; Jackson, J. A.; Priestley, K.; Baker, C.

    2000-12-01

    We investigate the depth distribution of earthquakes within the continental lithosphere of southern Iran, the Tien Shan and northern India by using synthetic seismograms to analyse P and SH body waveforms. In the Zagros mountains of southern Iran, earthquakes are apparently restricted to the upper crust (depths of <20km), whereas in the Tien Shan and northern India they occur throughout the thickness of the continental crust, to depths of ~40-45km. We find no convincing evidence for earthquakes in the continental mantle of these regions, in spite of previous suggestions to the contrary, and question whether seismicity in the continental mantle is important in any part of the world. In some regions, such as Iran, the Aegean, Tibet and California, seismicity is virtually restricted to the upper continental crust, whereas in others, including parts of East Africa, the Tien Shan and northern India, the lower crust is also seismically active, although usually less so than the upper crust. Such variations cannot reliably be demonstrated from published catalogue or bulletin locations, even from ones in which depth resolution is generally improved. In contrast to the oceanic mantle lithosphere, in which earthquakes certainly occur, the continental mantle lithosphere is, we suggest, virtually aseismic and may not be significantly stronger than the lower continental crust. These variations in continental seismogenic thickness are broadly correlated with variations in effective elastic thickness, suggesting that the strength of the continental lithosphere resides in the crust, and require some modification to prevalent views of lithosphere rheology.

  5. On the behavior of site effects in central Mexico (the Mexican volcanic belt - MVB), based on records of shallow earthquakes that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Lermo, J.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Valdés, C.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.; Arroyo, M.

    2014-06-01

    The Mexican volcanic belt (MVB) is a seismogenic zone that transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. The seismic risk and hazard of this seismogenic zone has not been studied in detail due to the scarcity of instrumental data as well as because seismicity in the continental regime of central Mexico is not too frequent. However, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) that have taken place in this zone. The valley of Mexico City (VM) is the sole zone, within the MVB, that has been studied in detail. Studies have mainly focused on the ground amplification during large events such as the 1985 subduction earthquake that occurred off coast of Michoacán. The purpose of this article is to analyze the behavior of site effects in the MVB zone based on records of shallow earthquakes (data not reported before) that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011. We present a general overview of site effects in the MVB, a classification of the stations in order to reduce the uncertainty in the data when obtaining attenuation parameters in future works, as well as some comparisons between the information presented here and that presented in previous studies. A regional evaluation of site effects and Fourier acceleration spectrum (FAS) shape was estimated based on 80 records of 22 shallow earthquakes within the MVB zone. Data of 25 stations were analyzed. Site effects were estimated by using the horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratio (HVSR) methodology. The results show that seismic waves are less amplified in the northeast sites of the MVB with respect to the rest of the zone and that it is possible to classify two groups of stations: (1) stations with negligible site amplification (NSA) and (2) stations with significant site amplification (SSA). Most of the sites in the first group showed small (<3) amplifications while the second group showed amplifications ranging from 4 to 6.5 at frequencies of about 0.35, 0.75, 15 and 23

  6. PRE SEISMIC ANOMALIES REVEALED IN THE AREA WHERE THE ABRUZZO EARTHQUAKE (M = 6.3) OCCURRED ON APRIL 6, 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, P. F.; Castellana, L.; Maggipinto, T.; Ermini, A.

    2009-12-01

    Since 1996, the intensity of CLT (f=189 kHz, Sicily, Italy), MCO (f=216 kHz, France) and CZE (f=270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcast signals has been collected with a ten minutes sampling rate by a receiver operating in a place located about 13 km far from the epicenter of the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3, April 6, 2009). During March 2009, the old receiver was substituted with a new one for measuring, with one minute sampling rate, the intensity of five VLF signals and five LF signals radiated by transmitters located in different zone of Europe. Two of the previous transmitters are included among them. In the period March 31-April 1 the intensity of the MCO radio signal dropped and this drop was observed only in this signal. The possibility that the drop was connected to problems in the transmitter or in the receiver was investigated and excluded. So, the drop indicates a defocusing of the radiated signal. Since none particular meteorological situation along the path transmitter-receiver happened, the defocusing must be related to other causes. The possibility that it is a precursor of the Abruzzo earthquake is presented. Beside, the flow rate of a natural spring located in the same place of the receiver is being sampled from 1992. During September-October 2008 the flow rate was abnormal with respect to all the previous periods. Also this anomaly takes the shape of a precursor of the Abruzzo earthquake. Probably, it is mainly related to the seismic sequence that started in the zone in the middle of January 2009 and that lasted up to the earthquake.

  7. Pre-seismic radio anomaly observed on the occasion of the MW=6.5 earthquake occurred in Crete on October 12, 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maggipinto, Tommaso; Colella, Roberto; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Schiavulli, Luigi; Ligonzo, Teresa; Ermini, Anita; Martinelli, Giovanni; Palangio, Paolo; Moldovan, Iren A.; Silva, Hugo G.; Bezzeghoud, Mourad; Contadakis, Michael E.; Arabelos, Dimitrios N.; Scordilis, Emmanuel M.; Frantzis, Xenophon; Katzis, Konstantinos; Buyuksarac, Aydın; D'Amico, Sebastiano

    2014-05-01

    On October 12, 2013 an earthquake with Mw=6.5 occurred in the southern Hellenic Arc, about 20km off the west coast of Crete. The mainshock, whose focal depth is of the order of 40km, was followed by aftershocks felt in the nearby cities and villages, even though the aftershock sequence was rather poor. The epicenter is located at about 60 km from the CRE receiver of the European VLF/LF Radio Network. Some day before the earthquake a clear disturbance appeared in one of the ten radio signals sampled by the CRE receiver . The disturbance, considered as an anomaly, appears in the 216 kHz radio signal radiated by the transmitter MCO that is the main broadcasting facility for long and medium wave broadcasting of Radio Monte Carlo near Roumoules, France. The site is an exclave of Monaco and extraterritorial area. The signal radiated by MCO transmitter can be well received, mainly at night time, in whole Europe. The radio path MCO-CRE crosses exactly the epicenter area of the previous earthquake. Here we present a detailed study of the anomaly by means of statistical and spectral tools and analyze also the behavior of other sampled radio signals in the European network, and take into account other possible causes of disturbances. We conclude that the possibility that the disturbance in the MCO radio signal is a precursor of the earthquake is rather convincing.

  8. Earthquake.

    PubMed

    Cowen, A R; Denney, J P

    1994-04-01

    On January 25, 1 week after the most devastating earthquake in Los Angeles history, the Southern California Hospital Council released the following status report: 928 patients evacuated from damaged hospitals. 805 beds available (136 critical, 669 noncritical). 7,757 patients treated/released from EDs. 1,496 patients treated/admitted to hospitals. 61 dead. 9,309 casualties. Where do we go from here? We are still waiting for the "big one." We'll do our best to be ready when Mother Nature shakes, rattles and rolls. The efforts of Los Angeles City Fire Chief Donald O. Manning cannot be overstated. He maintained department command of this major disaster and is directly responsible for implementing the fire department's Disaster Preparedness Division in 1987. Through the chief's leadership and ability to forecast consequences, the city of Los Angeles was better prepared than ever to cope with this horrendous earthquake. We also pay tribute to the men and women who are out there each day, where "the rubber meets the road." PMID:10133439

  9. Unexpectedly frequent occurrence of very small repeating earthquakes (-5.1 ≤ Mw ≤ -3.6) in a South African gold mine: Implications for monitoring intraplate faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naoi, Makoto; Nakatani, Masao; Igarashi, Toshihiro; Otsuki, Kenshiro; Yabe, Yasuo; Kgarume, Thabang; Murakami, Osamu; Masakale, Thabang; Ribeiro, Luiz; Ward, Anthony; Moriya, Hirokazu; Kawakata, Hironori; Nakao, Shigeru; Durrheim, Raymond; Ogasawara, Hiroshi

    2015-12-01

    We observed very small repeating earthquakes with -5.1 ≤ Mw ≤ -3.6 on a geological fault at 1 km depth in a gold mine in South Africa. Of the 851 acoustic emissions that occurred on the fault during the 2 month analysis period, 45% were identified as repeaters on the basis of waveform similarity and relative locations. They occurred steadily at the same location with similar magnitudes, analogous to repeaters at plate boundaries, suggesting that they are repeat ruptures of the same asperity loaded by the surrounding aseismic slip (background creep). Application of the Nadeau and Johnson (1998) empirical formula (NJ formula), which relates the amount of background creep and repeater activity and is well established for plate boundary faults, to the present case yielded an impossibly large estimate of the background creep. This means that the presently studied repeaters were produced more efficiently, for a given amount of background creep, than expected from the NJ formula. When combined with an independently estimated average stress drop of 16 MPa, which is not particularly high, it suggests that the small asperities of the presently studied repeaters had a high seismic coupling (almost unity), in contrast to one physical interpretation of the plate boundary repeaters. The productivity of such repeaters, per unit background creep, is expected to increase strongly as smaller repeaters are considered (∝ Mo -1/3 as opposed to Mo -1/6 of the NJ formula), which may be usable to estimate very slow creep that may occur on intraplate faults.

  10. Pre-seismic anomalous geomagnetic signature related to M8.3 earthquake occurred in Chile on September 16-th, 2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Armand Stanica, Dragos, ,, Dr.; Stanica, Dumitru, ,, Dr.; Vladimirescu, Nicoleta

    2016-04-01

    In this paper, we retrospectively analyzed the geomagnetic data collected, via internet (www.intermagnet.com), on the interval 01 July-30 September 2015 at the observatories Easter Island (IMP) and Pilar (PIL), placed in Chile and Argentina, respectively, to emphasize a possible relationship between the pre-seismic anomalous behavior of the normalized function Bzn and M8.3 earthquake, that occurred in Offshore Coquimbo (Chile) on September 16-th, 2015. The daily mean distributions of the normalized function Bzn=Bz/Bperp (where Bz is vertical component of the geomagnetic field; Bperp is geomagnetic component perpendicular to the geoelectrical strike) and its standard deviation (STDEV) are performed in the ULF frequency range 0.001Hz to 0.0083Hz by using the FFT band-pass filter analysis. It was demonstrated that in pre-seismic conditions the Bzn has a significant enhancement due to the crustal electrical conductivity changes, possibly associated with the earthquake-induced rupture-processes and high-pressure fluid flow through the faulting system developed inside the foci and its neighboring area. After analyzing the anomalous values of the normalized function Bzn obtained at Easter Island and Pilar observatories, the second one taken as reference, we used a statistical analysis, based on a standardized random variable equation, to identify on 1-2 September 2015 a pre-seismic signature related to the M8.3 earthquake. The lead time was 14 days before the M8.3 earthquake occurrence. The final conclusion is that the proposed geomagnetic methodology might be used to provide suitable information for the extreme earthquake hazard assessment.

  11. On the behavior of site effects in Central Mexico (the Mexican Volcanic Belt - MVB), based on records of shallow earthquakes that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clemente-Chavez, A.; Zúñiga, F. R.; Lermo, J.; Figueroa-Soto, A.; Valdés, C.; Montiel, M.; Chavez, O.; Arroyo, M.

    2013-11-01

    The Mexican Volcanic Belt (MVB) is a seismogenic zone that transects the central part of Mexico with an east-west orientation. The risk and hazard seismic of this seismogenic zone has not been studied at detail due to the scarcity of instrumental data as well as because seismicity in the continental regimen of Central Mexico is not too frequent, however, it is known that there are precedents of large earthquakes (Mw > 6.0) that have taken place in this zone. The Valley of Mexico City (VM) is the sole zone, within the MVB, which has been studied in detail; mainly focusing on the ground amplification during large events such as the 1985 subduction earthquake that occurred in Michoacan. The purpose of this article is to analyze the behavior of site effects in the MVB zone based on records of shallow earthquakes (data not reported before) that occurred in the zone between 1998 and 2011. We present a general overview of site effects on the MVB, a classification of the stations in order to reduce the uncertainty in the data to obtain attenuation parameters in future works, and some comparisons between the information presented here and that presented in previous studies. A regional evaluation of site effects and Fourier Acceleration Spectrum (FAS) shape was estimated based on 80 records of 22 shallow earthquakes within the MVB zone. Data of 25 stations were analyzed. Site effects were estimated by using the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) methodology. The results show that seismic waves are less amplified in the northeast sites of the MVB with respect to the rest of the zone and that it is possible to classify two groups of stations: (1) stations with Negligible Site Amplification (NSA) and (2) stations with Significant Site Amplification (SSA). Most of the sites in the first group showed small (< 3) amplifications while the second group showed amplifications ranging from 4 to 6.5 at frequencies of about 0.35, 0.75, 15 and 23 Hz. With these groups of

  12. Biased hypermutation occurred frequently in a gene inserted into the IC323 recombinant measles virus during its persistence in the brains of nude mice

    SciTech Connect

    Otani, Sanae; Ayata, Minoru; Takeuchi, Kaoru; Takeda, Makoto; Shintaku, Haruo; Ogura, Hisashi

    2014-08-15

    Measles virus (MV) is the causative agent of measles and its neurological complications, subacute sclerosing panencephalitis (SSPE) and measles inclusion body encephalitis (MIBE). Biased hypermutation in the M gene is a characteristic feature of SSPE and MIBE. To determine whether the M gene is the preferred target of hypermutation, an additional transcriptional unit containing a humanized Renilla reniformis green fluorescent protein (hrGFP) gene was introduced into the IC323 MV genome, and nude mice were inoculated intracerebrally with the virus. Biased hypermutation occurred in the M gene and also in the hrGFP gene when it was inserted between the leader and the N gene, but not between the H and L gene. These results indicate that biased hypermutation is usually found in a gene whose function is not essential for viral proliferation in the brain and that the location of a gene in the MV genome can affect its mutational frequency. - Highlights: • Wild-type MV can cause persistent infections in nude mice. • Biased hypermutation occurred in the M gene. • Biased hypermutation occurred in an inessential gene inserted between the leader and the N gene.

  13. Play it again: did this melody occur more frequently or was it heard more recently? The role of stimulus familiarity in episodic recognition of music.

    PubMed

    McAuley, J Devin; Stevens, Catherine; Humphreys, Michael S

    2004-05-01

    Episodic recognition of novel and familiar melodies was examined by asking participants to make judgments about the recency and frequency of presentation of melodies over the course of two days of testing. For novel melodies, recency judgments were poor and participants often confused the number of presentations of a melody with its day of presentation; melodies heard frequently were judged as have been heard more recently than they actually were. For familiar melodies, recency judgments were much more accurate and the number of presentations of a melody helped rather than hindered performance. Frequency judgments were generally more accurate than recency judgments and did not demonstrate the same interaction with musical familiarity. Overall, these findings suggest that (1) episodic recognition of novel melodies is based more on a generalized "feeling of familiarity" than on a specific episodic memory, (2) frequency information contributes more strongly to this generalized memory than recency information, and (3) the formation of an episodic memory for a melody depends either on the overall familiarity of the stimulus or the availability of a verbal label. PMID:15111232

  14. Solar wind proton density variations that preceded the M6,1 earthquake occurred in New Caledonia on November 10, 2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataldi, Gabriele; Cataldi, Daniele; Straser, Valentino

    2015-04-01

    This work analyzed the modulation of the solar wind proton density variation that preceded the M6,1 earthquake occurred in New Caledonia on November 10, 2014 at 10:04:21 UTC. The purpose of the study has been to verify the existence of a correlation between solar activity and the earthquake and for testing a method to be applied in the future also for the prediction of tsunami. The ionic data used to realize the correlation study are represented by: solar wind ion density variation detected by ACE (Advanced Composition Explorer) Satellite, in orbit near the L1 Lagrange point, at 1.5 million of km from Earth, in direction of the Sun. The instrument used to perform the measurement of the solar wind ion density is the Electron, Proton, and Alpha Monitor (EPAM) instrument, equipped on the ACE Satellite. To conduct the study, the authors have taken in consideration the variation of the solar wind protons density that have these characteristics: differential proton flux 1060-1900 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 761-1220 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV); differential proton flux 310-580 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV) and differential proton flux 115-195 keV (p/cm^2-sec-ster-MeV). The sample data used to conduct the study refers the period going from 7 to 10 November 2014. The data on the M6,1 earthquake are provided in real time by the USGS (United States Geological Survey). The data analysis revealed that the M6,1 earthquake occurred in New Caledonia on November 10, 2014 at 10:04:21 UTC, was preceded by a solar coronal mass ejection (CME) that reached Earth at 19:31:04 UTC (± 6 hours, ISWA data) on November 9, 2014. The CME event produced an increase of solar wind ion density that preceded the earthquakes of about 14.5 hours.

  15. Simulation of a step by step prediction of the M=4.7 earthquake occurred in central Italy on August 22, 2005

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, P. F.; Maggipinto, T.; Castellana, L.; Ermini, A.

    2009-04-01

    From 2002, a VLF-LF radio receiver is into operation in Bari (southern Italy). The intensity of the signals transmitted by GB (f=16 kHz, United Kingdom), FR (f=20.9 kHz, France), GE (f=23.4 kHz, Germany), IC (f=37.5 kHz, Island) and IT (f=54 kHz, Sicily, Italy) has been monitored with a 5s sampling rate. On August 19, 2005 a clear drop in the intensity of the FR radio signal appeared. Here a possible seismic prediction based on this drop considered as a precursor is presented. At first the probability that the drop could be connected to the seismicity was evaluated on the basis of the previous data analysis. Then, the analysis for defining time occurrence, location and magnitude of the forthcoming earthquake was undergone. The results have indicated a good probability for the occurrence within 15 days of an earthquake with M in the range 4.5-5.5 in the Colli Albani (near Rome) seismogenetic area. A fundamental rule in the precise definition of the epicentral zone was the indication of anomalies in the Radon content in air revealed in this zone by a station for monitoring the environmental radioactivity. On August 22, 2005 an earthquake with M = 4.7 occurred in the Anzio (near Rome) offshore area. The epicenter is inside the 5Th Fresnel zone of the FR radio signal and it is located 5 miles from the Tor Caldara "Diffuse Degassing Structure" where the Radon content in air is sampled by researchers of the INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology).

  16. Earthquake prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Ma, Z.; Fu, Z.; Zhang, Y.; Wang, C.; Zhang, G.; Liu, D.

    1989-01-01

    Mainland China is situated at the eastern edge of the Eurasian seismic system and is the largest intra-continental region of shallow strong earthquakes in the world. Based on nine earthquakes with magnitudes ranging between 7.0 and 7.9, the book provides observational data and discusses successes and failures of earthquake prediction. Derived from individual earthquakes, observations of various phenomena and seismic activities occurring before and after earthquakes, led to the establishment of some general characteristics valid for earthquake prediction.

  17. A pre seismic radio anomaly revealed in the area where the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3) occurred on 6 April 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, P. F.; Castellana, L.; Maggipinto, T.; Loiacono, D.; Schiavulli, L.; Ligonzo, T.; Fiore, M.; Suciu, E.; Ermini, A.

    2009-09-01

    On 6 April 2009 a strong (Mw=6.3) earthquake occurred in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Since 1996, the intensity of CLT (f=189 kHz, Sicily, Italy), MCO (f=216 kHz, France) and CZE (f=270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcast signals has been collected with a ten minutes sampling rate by a receiver operating in a place located about 13 km far from the epicenter. During March 2009, the old receiver was substituted with a new one able to measure, with one minute sampling rate, the intensity of five VLF signals and five LF signals radiated by transmitters located in different zones of Europe. The MCO and CZE transmitters mentioned above are included among them. From 31 March to 1 April the intensity of the MCO radio signal dropped and this drop was observed only in this signal. The possibility that the drop was connected to problems in the transmitter or in the receiver was investigated and excluded. So, the drop indicates a defocusing of the radiated signal. Since no particular meteorological situation along the path transmitter-receiver happened, the defocusing must be related to other causes, and a possibility is presented that it is a precursor of the Abruzzo earthquake.

  18. Anomalous pre-seismic behaviour of the electromagnetic normalized functions (EMNF) related to the intermediate depth earthquakes occurred in Vrancea zone, Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stanica, Dumitru; Armand Stanica, Dragos

    2010-05-01

    Electromagnetic research concerning a seismic hazard has been orientated for solving at least three kinds of pre-seismic phenomena occurred in the frequency ranges 100 MHz-DC: (i) Signals possibly emitted from earthquake sources which may produce geomagnetic/geoelectric changes in ULF-ELF-VLF-LF-HF bands; (ii) Anomalous transmission of electromagnetic waves due possibly to a disturbed ionosphere related to the transmission anomaly of man made (VLF) waves and scattering of MF radio waves (VHF); (iii) Spatial-temporal variation of the electric conductivity in the lithosphere, associated with seismic events inside and/or in close proximity of foci, may be reflected by the EM parameters carried out in ULF band. Thus, the EM techniques of monitoring able to reflect the relation between spatial-temporal changes of the electrical conductivity and seismic events, produced at the lithospheric level, may become an important subject in this direction, and the rock fracturing associated with dehydration processes and fluid migration through faulting systems, acting as high sensitive path, could be detected by means of the anomalous behavior of the EM parameters carried out throughout the frequency range 10-2 Hz - DC. To confirm the relationship between EMNF and the imminent earthquakes, a specific methodology for data collection and processing has been established. EM data were collected at Provita de Sus Geodynamic Observatory, located 100 km away from Vrancea epicentral zone. Finally, in this paper,the dally mean distributions of the EMNF (Bzn=Bz/Bperp; Rn=Rpar/Rz; where: Bz and Bperp are vertical and perpendicular geomagnetic components; Rpar and Rz are resistivity parallel and vertical, respectively), possibly related to the intermediate depth seismic events with magnitude higher than 4 occurred within 2009 year, have been investigated and presented.

  19. Hidden earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Stein, R.S.; Yeats, R.S.

    1989-06-01

    Seismologists generally look for earthquakes to happen along visible fault lines, e.g., the San Andreas fault. The authors maintain that another source of dangerous quakes has been overlooked: the release of stress along a fault that is hidden under a fold in the earth's crust. The paper describes the differences between an earthquake which occurs on a visible fault and one which occurs under an anticline and warns that Los Angeles greatest earthquake threat may come from a small quake originating under downtown Los Angeles, rather than a larger earthquake which occurs 50 miles away at the San Andreas fault.

  20. Subionospheric VLF/LF radio waves propagation characteristics before, during and after the Sofia, Bulgaria Mw=5.6 earthquake occurred on 22 May 2012

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moldovan, Iren Adelina; Emilian Toader, Victorin; Nenovski, Petko; Biagi, Pier Francesco; Maggipinto, Tommaso; Septimiu Moldovan, Adrian; Ionescu, Constantin

    2013-04-01

    In 2009, INFREP, a network of VLF (20-60 kHz) and LF (150-300 kHz) radio receivers, was put into operation in Europe having as principal goal, the study of disturbances produced by the earthquakes on the propagation properties of these signals. On May 22nd, 2012 an earthquake with Mw=567 occurred in Bulgaria, near Sofia, inside the "sensitive" area of the INFREP VLF/LF electromagnetic network. The data collected on different frequencies, during April-May 2012 were studied using different methods of analysis: daily correlation methods, spectral approaches and terminator time techniques, in order to find out possible connections between the seismic activity and the subionospheric propagation properties of radio waves. The studies were performed with the help of a specially designed LabVIEW application, which accesses the VLF/LF receiver through internet. This program opens the receiver's web-page and automatically retrieves the list of data files to synchronize the user-side data with the receiver's data. Missing zipped files are also automatically downloaded. The application performs primary, statistical correlation and spectral analysis, appends daily files into monthly and annual files and performs 3D colour-coded maps with graphic representations of VLF and LF signals' intensities versus the minute-of-the-day and the day-of-the-month, facilitating a near real-time observation of VLF and LF electromagnetic waves' propagation. Another feature of the software is the correlation of the daily recorded files for the studied frequencies by overlaying the 24 hours radio activity and taking into account the sunrise and sunset. Data are individually processed (spectral power, correlations, differentiation, filtered using bandpass, lowpass, highpass). JTFA spectrograms (Cone-Shaped Distribution CSD, Gabor, Wavelet, short-time Fourier transform STFT, Wigner-Ville Distribution WVD, Choi-Williams Distribution CWD) are used, too.

  1. Interaction of the san jacinto and san andreas fault zones, southern california: triggered earthquake migration and coupled recurrence intervals.

    PubMed

    Sanders, C O

    1993-05-14

    Two lines of evidence suggest that large earthquakes that occur on either the San Jacinto fault zone (SJFZ) or the San Andreas fault zone (SAFZ) may be triggered by large earthquakes that occur on the other. First, the great 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake in the SAFZ seems to have triggered a progressive sequence of earthquakes in the SJFZ. These earthquakes occurred at times and locations that are consistent with triggering by a strain pulse that propagated southeastward at a rate of 1.7 kilometers per year along the SJFZ after the 1857 earthquake. Second, the similarity in average recurrence intervals in the SJFZ (about 150 years) and in the Mojave segment of the SAFZ (132 years) suggests that large earthquakes in the northern SJFZ may stimulate the relatively frequent major earthquakes on the Mojave segment. Analysis of historic earthquake occurrence in the SJFZ suggests little likelihood of extended quiescence between earthquake sequences. PMID:17818388

  2. Safety and survival in an earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    1969-01-01

    Many earth scientists in this country and abroad are focusing their studies on the search for means of predicting impending earthquakes, but, as yet, an accurate prediction of the time and place of such an event cannot be made. From past experience, however, one can assume that earthquakes will continue to harass mankind and that they will occur most frequently in the areas where they have been relatively common in the past. In the United States, earthquakes can be expected to occur most frequently in the western states, particularly in Alaska, California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada, Utah, and Montana. The danger, however, is not confined to any one part of the country; major earthquakes have occurred at widely scattered locations.

  3. Characteristic and uncharacteristic earthquakes as possible artifacts: what does the seismic history actually tell us?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Newman, A.

    2004-05-01

    A challenge for tectonic studies and seismic hazard analysis is that the rates and sizes of the largest observed earthquakes in an area may differ significantly from their true long-term values. This especially likely for intraplate areas or others where recurrence intervals are long, so the earthquake record length is comparable to the mean recurrence time of large earthquakes. In many areas, the largest earthquakes - termed characteristic - appear more common than expected from the log-linear frequency-magnitude relation observed for smaller earthquakes. In others, large earthquakes which we term "uncharacteristic" appear less frequently than expected from the small earthquakes. These effects may be real, or may arise from several possible situations. Apparent characteristic earthquakes can occur if earthquake recurrence intervals are distributed about the mean for that magnitude range, because sampling bias makes those with shorter intervals more likely to be observed than those with longer ones (fractions of earthquakes cannot be observed). A second possibility is suggested by the fact that characteristic earthquakes are often inferred because paleoseismic data are discordant with instrumental or historical data. Hence apparent characteristic earthquakes would occur if paleoseismic data overestimate earthquake magnitudes. This appears to have occurred for the New Madrid zone, because paleoliquification data were calibrated assuming the 1811-12 earthquakes were M 8.3 events, whereas more recent analyses find that these earthquakes were low M 7. Conversely, paleoearthquakes in the Wabash seismic zone appear "uncharacteristic", perhaps because or the paleoseismic record captures only some of the large earthquakes.

  4. Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harrington, Rebecca M.; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Moran, Seth C.

    2015-07-01

    We analyze a group of 6073 low-frequency earthquakes recorded during a week-long temporary deployment of broadband seismometers at distances of less than 3 km from the crater at Mount St. Helens in September of 2006. We estimate the seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (f0) using a spectral ratio approach for events with a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio that have a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.8 or greater with at least five other events. A cluster analysis of cross-correlation values indicates that the group of 421 events meeting the SNR and cross-correlation criteria forms eight event families that exhibit largely self-similar scaling. We estimate the M0 and f0 values of the 421 events and calculate their static stress drop and scaled energy (ER/M0) values. The estimated values suggest self-similar scaling within families, as well as between five of eight families (i.e., M0∝f0-3 and ER/M0∝ constant). We speculate that differences in scaled energy values for the two families with variable scaling may result from a lack of resolution in the velocity model. The observation of self-similar scaling is the first of its kind for such a large group of low-frequency volcanic tectonic events occurring during a single active dome extrusion eruption.

  5. Self-similar rupture implied by scaling properties of volcanic earthquakes occurring during the 2004-2008 eruption of Mount St. Helens, Washington

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harrington, Rebecca M.; Kwiatek, Grzegorz; Moran, Seth C.

    2015-01-01

    We analyze a group of 6073 low-frequency earthquakes recorded during a week-long temporary deployment of broadband seismometers at distances of less than 3 km from the crater at Mount St. Helens in September of 2006. We estimate the seismic moment (M0) and spectral corner frequency (f0) using a spectral ratio approach for events with a high signal-to-noise (SNR) ratio that have a cross-correlation coefficient of 0.8 or greater with at least five other events. A cluster analysis of cross-correlation values indicates that the group of 421 events meeting the SNR and cross-correlation criteria forms eight event families that exhibit largely self-similar scaling. We estimate the M0 and f0 values of the 421 events and calculate their static stress drop and scaled energy (ER/M0) values. The estimated values suggest self-similar scaling within families, as well as between five of eight families (i.e.,  and  constant). We speculate that differences in scaled energy values for the two families with variable scaling may result from a lack of resolution in the velocity model. The observation of self-similar scaling is the first of its kind for such a large group of low-frequency volcanic tectonic events occurring during a single active dome extrusion eruption.

  6. Source Functions and Path Effects from Earthquakes in the Farallon Transform Fault Region, Gulf of California, Mexico that Occurred on October 2013

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castro, Raúl R.; Stock, Joann M.; Hauksson, Egill; Clayton, Robert W.

    2016-07-01

    We determined source spectral functions, Q and site effects using regional records of body waves from the October 19, 2013 (M w = 6.6) earthquake and eight aftershocks located 90 km east of Loreto, Baja California Sur, Mexico. We also analyzed records from a foreshock with magnitude 3.3 that occurred 47 days before the mainshock. The epicenters of this sequence are located in the south-central region of the Gulf of California (GoC) near and on the Farallon transform fault. This is one of the most active regions of the GoC, where most of the large earthquakes have strike-slip mechanisms. Based on the distribution of the aftershocks, the rupture propagated northwest with a rupture length of approximately 27 km. We calculated 3-component P- and S-wave spectra from ten events recorded by eleven stations of the Broadband Seismological Network of the GoC (RESBAN). These stations are located around the GoC and provide good azimuthal coverage (the average station gap is 39°). The spectral records were corrected for site effects, which were estimated calculating average spectral ratios between horizontal and vertical components (HVSR method). The site-corrected spectra were then inverted to determine the source functions and to estimate the attenuation quality factor Q. The values of Q resulting from the spectral inversion can be approximated by the relations Q_{P} = 48.1 ± 1.1 f^{0.88 ± 0.04} and Q_{S} = 135.4 ± 1.1 f^{0.58 ± 0.03} and are consistent with previous estimates reported by Vidales-Basurto et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 104:2027-2042, 2014) for the south-central GoC. The stress drop estimates, obtained using the ω2 model, are below 1.7 MPa, with the highest stress drops determined for the mainshock and the aftershocks located in the ridge zone. We used the values of Q obtained to recalculate source and site effects with a different spectral inversion scheme. We found that sites with low S-wave amplification also tend to have low P-wave amplification, except

  7. Spectral-decomposition techniques for the identification of radon anomalies temporally associated with earthquakes occurring in the UK in 2002 and 2008

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crockett, R. G. M.; Gillmore, G. K.

    2010-06-01

    During the second half of 2002, the University of Northampton Radon Research Group operated two continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors 2.25 km apart in the English East Midlands. This period included the Dudley earthquake (ML=5, 22 September 2002). Also, at various periods during 2008 the Group has operated other pairs of continuous hourly-sampling radon detectors similar distances apart in the same region. One such period included the Market Rasen earthquake (ML=5.2, 27 February 2008). Windowed cross-correlation of the paired time-series was used to identify simultaneous short-duration anomalies. In the 2002 data, only two periods of significant cross-correlation were observed, each corresponding temporally to a UK earthquake, one to the Dudley earthquake and the other to a smaller earthquake in the English Channel (ML=3, 26 August 2002). In the 2008 data, cross-correlation initially revealed little evidence of simultaneous short-duration anomalies but cross-correlation of data de-noised and de-trended using Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) revealed clear simultaneous short-duration anomalies which correspond temporally to the Market Rasen earthquake.

  8. Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences.

    PubMed

    Tibi, Rigobert; Wiens, Douglas A; Inoue, Hiroshi

    2003-08-21

    It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences. PMID:12931183

  9. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-01

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes.

  10. Connecting slow earthquakes to huge earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Obara, Kazushige; Kato, Aitaro

    2016-07-15

    Slow earthquakes are characterized by a wide spectrum of fault slip behaviors and seismic radiation patterns that differ from those of traditional earthquakes. However, slow earthquakes and huge megathrust earthquakes can have common slip mechanisms and are located in neighboring regions of the seismogenic zone. The frequent occurrence of slow earthquakes may help to reveal the physics underlying megathrust events as useful analogs. Slow earthquakes may function as stress meters because of their high sensitivity to stress changes in the seismogenic zone. Episodic stress transfer to megathrust source faults leads to an increased probability of triggering huge earthquakes if the adjacent locked region is critically loaded. Careful and precise monitoring of slow earthquakes may provide new information on the likelihood of impending huge earthquakes. PMID:27418504

  11. Burst of ULF Electric Field Recorded by DEMETER Possibly Related to the Series of Earthquakes Occurred during the Tsunami Over the Indian Region (P19)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gwal, A. K.; Shrivastava, A.

    2006-11-01

    ak_gwal@yahoo.co.in The scientists have found that the accumulation of tectonic energy is localized in certain places and is not universal. Taking into account this hypothesis the authors have studied the sequence of occurrence rate of the earthquakes (M≥5) in the South-East Asian region, as the chronological data related to the occurrence of earthquakes collected in that region for last five years i.e. from 2001 to 2005 have revealed that the disastrous tsunami events which took place on 26th December, 2004 as an effect of Sumatra earthquake( M=9) have increased the occurrence of earthquake frequency for a longer period (which might be due to adjustment of tectonic plates). Observing these facts i.e. sudden enhancement in occurrence rate of earthquakes, the authors have availed this opportunity to further explore the concept of seismoelectromagnetic-ionospheric phenomena, which still needs a lot of statistical evidences, comprising tremendous amount of data to establish it. In this paper the authors have tried to analyze the chain of observations made and data collected and stored month wise w.e.f. 26th December, 2004 to 31st March, 2005 in the region, using DEMETER satellite. Further, efforts have also been made to provide the statistical analysis of the ionospheric variability caused due to detected electromagnetic burst in ULF frequency ranges in the context of natural variability in order to distinguish the variability introduced by other sources. In brief, it could be concluded that there is possibility of getting the electromagnetic precursors in the ionosphere at different frequency ranges due to excess release of tectonic energy as a result of occurrence rate of the earthquakes in the region.

  12. Deep Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frohlich, Cliff

    1989-01-01

    Summarizes research to find the nature of deep earthquakes occurring hundreds of kilometers down in the earth's mantle. Describes further research problems in this area. Presents several illustrations and four references. (YP)

  13. Threat of an earthquake right under the capital in Japan

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rikitake, T.

    1990-01-01

    Tokyo, Japan's capital, has been enjoying a seismically quiet period following the 1923 Kanto earthquake of magnitude 7.9 that killed more than 140,000 people. Such a quiet period seems likely to be a repetition of the 80-year quiescence after the great 1703 Genroku earthquake of magntidue 8.2 that occurred in an epicentral area adjacent to that of the 1923 Kanto earthquake. In 1784, seismic activity immediately under the capital area revived with occasional occurrence of magnitude 6 to 7 shocks. Earthquakes of this class tended to occur more frequently as time went on and they eventually culminated in the 1923 Kanto earthquake. As more than 60 years have passed since the Kanto earthquake, we may well expect another revival of activity immediately under the capital area. 

  14. Improving the RST Approach for Earthquake Prone Areas Monitoring: Results of Correlation Analysis among Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies and Earthquakes (M>4) occurred in Italy during 2004-2014

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tramutoli, V.; Coviello, I.; Filizzola, C.; Genzano, N.; Lisi, M.; Paciello, R.; Pergola, N.

    2015-12-01

    Looking toward the assessment of a multi-parametric system for dynamically updating seismic hazard estimates and earthquake short term (from days to weeks) forecast, a preliminary step is to identify those parameters (chemical, physical, biological, etc.) whose anomalous variations can be, to some extent, associated to the complex process of preparation of a big earthquake. Among the different parameters, the fluctuations of Earth's thermally emitted radiation, as measured by sensors on board of satellite system operating in the Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) spectral range, have been proposed since long time as potential earthquake precursors. Since 2001, a general approach called Robust Satellite Techniques (RST) has been used to discriminate anomalous thermal signals, possibly associated to seismic activity from normal fluctuations of Earth's thermal emission related to other causes (e.g. meteorological) independent on the earthquake occurrence. Thanks to its full exportability on different satellite packages, RST has been implemented on TIR images acquired by polar (e.g. NOAA-AVHRR, EOS-MODIS) and geostationary (e.g. MSG-SEVIRI, NOAA-GOES/W, GMS-5/VISSR) satellite sensors, in order to verify the presence (or absence) of TIR anomalies in presence (absence) of earthquakes (with M>4) in different seismogenic areas around the world (e.g. Italy, Turkey, Greece, California, Taiwan, etc.).In this paper, a refined RST (Robust Satellite Techniques) data analysis approach and RETIRA (Robust Estimator of TIR Anomalies) index were used to identify Significant Sequences of TIR Anomalies (SSTAs) during eleven years (from May 2004 to December 2014) of TIR satellite records, collected over Italy by the geostationary satellite sensor MSG-SEVIRI. On the basis of specific validation rules (mainly based on physical models and results obtained by applying RST approach to several earthquakes all around the world) the level of space-time correlation among SSTAs and earthquakes (with M≥4

  15. Regional vertical tectonic displacement of shorelines in south- central Alaska during and between great earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plafker, G.

    1990-01-01

    Reviews the setting of the 1964 earthquake and the unprecedented tectonic deformation that accompanied it. Outlines research directed towards defining the deformation that occurs between great earthquakes (interseismic part of the seismic cycle) and the longterm history of deformation over repeated seismic cycles in the earthquake-affected region, emphasizing work in progress. An understanding of this record of deformation is basic for evaluating how frequently 1964-type events recur in this same region, for improved understanding for the earthquake cycle in great subduction-zone seismotectonic events, and for predicting future great earthquakes in this and tectonically similar regions elsewhere. -from Author

  16. Earthquake clusters in Corinth Rift

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mesimeri, Maria; Papadimitriou, Eleftheria; Karakostas, Vasilios; Tsaklidis, George

    2013-04-01

    Clusters commonly occur as main shock-aftershock (MS-AS) sequences but also as earthquake swarms, which are empirically defined as an increase in seismicity rate above the background rate without a clear triggering main shock earthquake. Earthquake swarms occur in a variety of different environments and might have a diversity of origins, characterized by a high b-value in their magnitude distribution. The Corinth Rift, which was selected as our target area, appears to be the most recent extensional structure, with a likely rate of fault slip of about 1cm/yr and opening of 7mm/yr. High seismic activity accommodates the active deformation with frequent strong (M≥6.0) events and several seismic excitations without a main shock with clearly discriminative magnitude. Identification of earthquake clusters that occurred in this area in last years and investigation of their spatio-temporal distribution is attempted, with the application of known declustering algorithms, aiming to associate their occurrence with certain patterns in seismicity behavior. The earthquake catalog of the National Hellenic Seismological Network is used, and a certain number of clusters were extracted from the dataset, with the MS-AS sequences being distinguished from earthquake swarms. Spatio-temporal properties of each subset were analyzed in detail, after determining the respective completeness magnitude. This work was supported in part by the THALES Program of the Ministry of Education of Greece and the European Union in the framework of the project entitled "Integrated understanding of Seismicity, using innovative Methodologies of Fracture mechanics along with Earthquake and non-extensive statistical physics - Application to the geodynamic system of the Hellenic Arc, SEISMO FEAR HELLARC".

  17. Tectonic earthquakes of anthropogenic origin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adushkin, V. V.

    2016-03-01

    The enhancement of seismicity induced by industrial activity in Russia in the conditions of present-day anthropization is noted. In particular, the growth in the intensity and number of strong tectonic earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 3 (seismic energy 109 J) due to human activity is revealed. These man-made tectonic earthquakes have started to occur in the regions of the East European Platform which were previously aseismic. The development of such seismicity is noted in the areas of intense long-term mineral extraction due to the increasing production depth and extended mining and production. The mechanisms and generation conditions of man-made tectonic earthquakes in the anthropogenically disturbed medium with the changed geodynamical and fluid regime is discussed. The source zones of these shallow-focus tectonic earthquakes of anthropogenic origin are formed in the setting of stress state rearrangement under anthropogenic loading both near these zones and at a significant distance from them. This distance is determined by the tectonic structure of the rock mass and the character of its energy saturation, in particular, by the level of the formation pressure or pore pressure. These earthquakes occur at any time of the day, have a triggered character, and are frequently accompanied by catastrophic phenomena in the underground mines and on the surface due to the closeness to the source zones.

  18. Winnetka deformation zone: Surface expression of coactive slip on a blind fault during the Northridge earthquake sequence, California. Evidence that coactive faulting occurred in the Canoga Park, Winnetka, and Northridge areas during the 17 January 1994, Northridge, California earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Cruikshank, K.M.; Johnson, A.M.; Fleming, R.W.; Jones, R.L.

    1996-12-31

    Measurements of normalized length changes of streets over an area of 9 km{sup 2} in San Fernando Valley of Los Angeles, California, define a distinctive strain pattern that may well reflect blind faulting during the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Strain magnitudes are about 3 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}, locally 10{sup {minus}3}. They define a deformation zone trending diagonally from near Canoga Park in the southwest, through Winnetka, to near Northridge in the northeast. The deformation zone is about 4.5 km long and 1 km wide. The northwestern two-thirds of the zone is a belt of extension of streets, and the southeastern one-third is a belt of shortening of streets. On the northwest and southeast sides of the deformation zone the magnitude of the strains is too small to measure, less than 10{sup {minus}4}. Complete states of strain measured in the northeastern half of the deformation zone show that the directions of principal strains are parallel and normal to the walls of the zone, so the zone is not a strike-slip zone. The magnitudes of strains measured in the northeastern part of the Winnetka area were large enough to fracture concrete and soils, and the area of larger strains correlates with the area of greater damage to such roads and sidewalks. All parts of the pattern suggest a blind fault at depth, most likely a reverse fault dipping northwest but possibly a normal fault dipping southeast. The magnitudes of the strains in the Winnetka area are consistent with the strains produced at the ground surface by a blind fault plane extending to depth on the order of 2 km and a net slip on the order of 1 m, within a distance of about 100 to 500 m of the ground surface. The pattern of damage in the San Fernando Valley suggests a fault segment much longer than the 4.5 km defined by survey data in the Winnetka area. The blind fault segment may extend several kilometers in both directions beyond the Winnetka area. This study of the Winnetka area further supports

  19. Perspectives on earthquake hazards in the New Madrid seismic zone, Missouri

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thenhaus, P.C.

    1990-01-01

    A sequence of three great earthquakes struck the Central United States during the winter of 1811-1812 in the area of New Madrid, Missouri. they are considered to be the greatest earthquakes in the conterminous U.S because they were felt and caused damage at far greater distances than any other earthquakes in U.S history. The large population currently living within the damage area of these earthquakes means that widespread destruction and loss of life is likely if the sequence were repeated. In contrast to California, where the earthquakes are felt frequently, the damaging earthquakes that have occurred in the Easter U.S-in 155 (Cape Ann, Mass.), 1811-12 (New Madrid, Mo.), 1886 (Charleston S.C) ,and 1897 (Giles County, Va.- are generally regarded as only historical phenomena (fig. 1). The social memory of these earthquakes no longer exists. A fundamental problem in the Eastern U.S, therefore, is that the earthquake hazard is not generally considered today in land-use and civic planning. This article offers perspectives on the earthquake hazard of the New Madrid seismic zone through discussions of the geology of the Mississippi Embayment, the historical earthquakes that have occurred there, the earthquake risk, and the "tools" that geoscientists have to study the region. The so-called earthquake hazard is defined  by the characterization of the physical attributes of the geological structures that cause earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, the estimation of the recurrence times of the earthquakes, their potential size, and the expected ground motions. the term "earthquake risk," on the other hand, refers to aspects of the expected damage to manmade strctures and to lifelines as a result of the earthquake hazard.  

  20. Simultaneous occurrence of earthquakes and viscous relaxation: A laboratory evidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Namiki, A.; Yamaguchi, T.; Sumita, I.; Suzuki, T.; Ide, S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake produced a huge coseismic slip exceeding 30 m, but it does not seem to account for all of the interseismic deformation since the previous earthquake. Despite frequent observation of repeating small earthquakes, the repeatability of large earthquakes (MW > 9) is unclear. Here we show that insufficient slip is explained by a simple viscoelastic rheology of crustal materials, based on model experiments using analogue material, i.e., slime. Depending on the imposed strain rate, viscoelastic slime exhibits either viscous deformation or earthquake-like slips which are elastic rebounds associated with rupture propagations. For an intermediate imposed strain rate, slip events are associated with rupturing which propagates at shear wave velocity, but the elastic rebound becomes only partial. Our experiments indicate that, even when some fraction of the accumulated stress relaxes, earthquakes can occur. The estimated strain rates for very large earthquakes are close to those for this intermediate case. Before the Tohoku-Oki Earthquake, part of the accumulated stress could have relaxed. Our experimental results suggest that wide-scale anelastic deformation affects the recurrence of large earthquakes deviating from the elastic rebound theory. Ignoring this mechanism ends up with inaccurate risk assessments of the most significant earthquakes.

  1. Poly-A binding protein-1 localization to a subset of TDP-43 inclusions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis occurs more frequently in patients harboring an expansion in C9orf72.

    PubMed

    McGurk, Leeanne; Lee, Virginia M; Trojanowksi, John Q; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Lee, Edward B; Bonini, Nancy M

    2014-09-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an adult-onset motor neuron disease in which the loss of spinal cord motor neurons leads to paralysis and death within a few years of clinical disease onset. In almost all cases of ALS, transactive response DNA binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) forms cytoplasmic neuronal inclusions. A second causative gene for a subset of ALS is fused in sarcoma, an RNA binding protein that also forms cytoplasmic inclusions in spinal cord motor neurons. Poly-A binding protein-1 (PABP-1) is a marker of stress granules (i.e. accumulations of proteins and RNA indicative of translational arrest in cells under stress). We report on the colocalization of PABP-1 to both TDP-43 and fused-in-sarcoma inclusions in 4 patient cohorts: ALS without a mutation, ALS with an intermediate polyglutamine repeat expansion in ATXN2, ALS with a GGGGCC hexanucleotide repeat expansion in C9orf72, and ALS with basophilic inclusion body disease. Notably, PABP-1 colocalization to TDP-43 was twice as frequent in ALS with C9orf72 expansions compared to ALS with no mutation. This study highlights PABP-1 as a protein that is important to the pathology of ALS and indicates that the proteomic profile of TDP-43 inclusions in ALS may differ depending on the causative genetic mutation. PMID:25111021

  2. Poly-A binding protein-1 localization to a subset of TAR DNA-binding protein of 43 kDa inclusions in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis occurs more frequently in patients harboring an expansion in C9orf72

    PubMed Central

    McGurk, Leeanne; Lee, Virginia, M.; Trojanowksi, John Q.; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M.; Lee, Edward B.; Bonini, Nancy M.

    2014-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is an adult-onset motor neuron disease in which the loss of spinal cord motor neurons leads to paralysis and death within a few years of clinical disease onset. In almost all cases of ALS, TAR DNA binding protein of 43 kDa (TDP-43) forms cytoplasmic neuronal inclusions. A second causative gene for a subset of ALS is fused in sarcoma (FUS), an RNA binding protein that also forms cytoplasmic inclusions in spinal cord motor neurons. Poly A binding protein 1 (PABP-1) is a marker of stress granules, i.e. accumulations of proteins and RNA indicative of translational arrest in cells under stress. We report on the colocalization PABP-1 to both TDP-43 and FUS inclusions in 4 patient cohorts: ALS without a mutation, ALS with an intermediate poly glutamine repeat expansion in ATXN2, ALS with a GGGGCC-hexanucleotide repeat expansion in C9orf72, and ALS with basophilic inclusion body disease. Notably, PABP-1 colocalization to TDP-43 was twice as frequent in ALS with C9orf72 expansions compared to ALS with no mutation. This study highlights PABP-1 as a protein important to the pathology of ALS and indicates that the proteomic profile of TDP-43 inclusions in ALS may be different depending on the causative genetic mutation. PMID:25111021

  3. Mapping of earthquakes vulnerability area in Papua

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muhammad Fawzy Ismullah, M.; Massinai, Muh. Altin

    2016-05-01

    Geohazard is a geological occurrence which may lead to a huge loss for human. A mitigation of these natural disasters is one important thing to be done properly in order to reduce the risks. One of the natural disasters that frequently occurs in the Papua Province is the earthquake. This study applies the principle of Geospatial and its application for mapping the earthquake-prone area in the Papua region. It uses earthquake data, which is recorded for 36 years (1973-2009), fault location map, and ground acceleration map of the area. The earthquakes and fault map are rearranged into an earthquake density map, as well as an earthquake depth density map and fault density map. The overlaid data of these three maps onto ground acceleration map are then (compiled) to obtain an earthquake unit map. Some districts area, such as Sarmi, Nabire, and Dogiyai, are identified by a high vulnerability index. In the other hand, Waropen, Puncak, Merauke, Asmat, Mappi, and Bouven Digoel area shows lower index. Finally, the vulnerability index in other places is detected as moderate.

  4. Tracking Earthquake Cascades

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jordan, T. H.

    2011-12-01

    In assessing their risk to society, earthquakes are best characterized as cascades that can propagate from the natural environment into the socio-economic (built) environment. Strong earthquakes rarely occur as isolated events; they usually cluster in foreshock-mainshock-aftershock sequences, seismic swarms, and extended sequences of large earthquakes that propagate along major fault systems. These cascades are regulated by stress-mediated interactions among faults driven by tectonic loading. Within these cascades, each large event can itself cause a chain reaction in which the primary effects of faulting and ground shaking induce secondary effects, including tsunami, landslides, liquefaction, and set off destructive processes within the built environment, such as fires and radiation leakage from nuclear plants. Recent earthquakes have demonstrated how the socio-economic effects of large earthquakes can reverberate for many years. To reduce earthquake risk and improve the resiliency of communities to earthquake damage, society depends on five geotechnologies for tracking earthquake cascades: long-term probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), short-term (operational) earthquake forecasting, earthquake early warning, tsunami warning, and the rapid production of post-event information for response and recovery (see figure). In this presentation, I describe how recent advances in earthquake system science are leading to improvements in this geotechnology pipeline. In particular, I will highlight the role of earthquake simulations in predicting strong ground motions and their secondary effects before and during earthquake cascades

  5. Toxic Peptides Occur Frequently in Pergid and Argid Sawfly Larvae

    PubMed Central

    Boevé, Jean-Luc; Rozenberg, Raoul; Shinohara, Akihiko; Schmidt, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Toxic peptides containing D-amino acids are reported from the larvae of sawfly species. The compounds are suspected to constitute environmental contaminants, as they have killed livestock grazing in areas with congregations of such larvae, and related larval extracts are deleterious to ants. Previously, two octapeptides (both called lophyrotomin) and three heptapeptides (pergidin, 4-valinepergidin and dephosphorylated pergidin) were identified from three species in the family Pergidae and one in Argidae. Here, the hypothesis of widespread occurrence of these peptides among sawflies was tested by LC-MS analyses of single larvae from eight pergid and 28 argid species, plus nine outgroup species. At least two of the five peptides were detected in most sawfly species, whereas none in any outgroup taxon. Wherever peptides were detected, they were present in each examined specimen of the respective species. Some species show high peptide concentrations, reaching up to 0.6% fresh weight of 4-valinepergidin (1.75 mg/larva) in the pergid Pterygophorus nr turneri. All analyzed pergids in the subfamily Pterygophorinae contained pergidin and 4-valinepergidin, all argids in Arginae contained pergidin and one of the two lophyrotomins, whereas none of the peptides was detected in any Perginae pergid or Sterictiphorinae argid (except in Schizocerella pilicornis, which contained pergidin). Three of the four sawfly species that were previously known to contain toxins were reanalyzed here, resulting in several, often strong, quantitative and qualitative differences in the chemical profiles. The most probable ecological role of the peptides is defense against natural enemies; the poisoning of livestock is an epiphenomenon. PMID:25121515

  6. Maximum Earthquake Magnitude Assessments by Japanese Government Committees (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (M 9.0) was the largest earthquake in Japanese history and such a gigantic earthquake was not foreseen around Japan. After the 2011 disaster, various government committees in Japan have discussed and assessed the maximum credible earthquake size around Japan, but their values vary without definite consensus. I will review them with earthquakes along the Nankai Trough as an example. The Central Disaster Management Council, under Cabinet Office, set up a policy for the future tsunami disaster mitigation. The possible future tsunamis are classified into two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, for which saving people's lives is the first priority with soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared. The assessments of L1 and L2 events are left to local governments. The CDMC also assigned M 9.1 as the maximum size of earthquake along the Nankai trough, then computed the ground shaking and tsunami inundation for several scenario earthquakes. The estimated loss is about ten times the 2011 disaster, with maximum casualties of 320,000 and economic loss of 2 trillion dollars. The Headquarters of Earthquake Research Promotion, under MEXT, was set up after the 1995 Kobe earthquake and has made long-term forecast of large earthquakes and published national seismic hazard maps. The future probability of earthquake occurrence, for example in the next 30 years, was calculated from the past data of large earthquakes, on the basis of characteristic earthquake model. The HERP recently revised the long-term forecast of Naknai trough earthquake; while the 30 year probability (60 - 70 %) is similar to the previous estimate, they noted the size can be M 8 to 9, considering the variability of past

  7. Earthquakes and Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Clearinghouse for Educational Facilities, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Earthquakes are low-probability, high-consequence events. Though they may occur only once in the life of a school, they can have devastating, irreversible consequences. Moderate earthquakes can cause serious damage to building contents and non-structural building systems, serious injury to students and staff, and disruption of building operations.…

  8. Disaster triggers disaster: Earthquake triggering by tropical cyclones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wdowinski, S.; Tsukanov, I.

    2011-12-01

    Three recent devastating earthquakes, the 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi (Taiwan), 2010 M=7.0 Leogane (Haiti), 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung (Taiwan), and additional three moderate size earthquakes (6occurred in tropical mountainous areas shortly after very wet tropical cyclones (hurricane or typhoon) hit the very same area. The most familiar example is Haiti, which was hit during the late summer of 2008 by two hurricanes and two tropical storms (Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike) within 25 days. A year an a half after this very wet hurricane season, the 2010 Leogane earthquake occurred in the mountainous Haiti's southern peninsula and caused the death of more than 300,000 people. The other cases are from Taiwan, which is characterized by a high seismicity level and frequent typhoon landfall. The three wettest typhoons in Taiwan's past 50 years were Morakot (in 2009, with 2885 mm or rain), Flossie (1969, 2162 mm) and Herb (1996, 1987 mm)[Lin et al., 2010]. Each of this three very wet storms was followed by one or two main-shock M>6 earthquake that occurred in the central mountainous area of Taiwan within three years after the typhoon. The 2009 Morakot typhoon was followed by 2009 M=6.2 Nantou and 2010 M=6.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes; the 1969 Flossie typhoon was followed by an M=6.3 earthquake in 1972; and the 1996 Herb typhoon by the 1998 M=6.2 Rueyli and 1999 M=7.6 Chi-Chi earthquakes. The earthquake catalog of Taiwan lists only two other M>6 main-shocks that occurred in Taiwan's central mountainous belt, one of them was in 1964 only four months after the wet Typhoon Gloria poured heavy rain in the same area. We suggest that the close proximity in time and space between wet tropical cyclones and earthquakes reflects a physical link between the two hazard types in which these earthquakes were triggered by rapid erosion induced by tropical cyclone's heavy rain. Based on remote sensing observations, meshfree finite element modeling, and Coulomb failure stress analysis, we show that the

  9. Earthquake swarms on Mount Erebus, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaminuma, Katsutada; Baba, Megumi; Ueki, Sadato

    1986-12-01

    Mount Erebus (3794 m), located on Ross Island in McMurdo Sound, is one of the few active volcanoes in Antartica. A high-sensitivity seismic network has been operated by Japanese and US parties on and around the Volcano since December, 1980. The results of these observations show two kinds of seismic activity on Ross Island: activity concentrated near the summit of Mount Erebus associated with Strombolian eruptions, and micro-earthquake activity spread through Mount Erebus and the surrounding area. Seismicity on Mount Erebus has been quite high, usually exceeding 20 volcanic earthquakes per day. They frequently occur in swarms with daily counts exceeding 100 events. Sixteen earthquake swarms with more than 250 events per day were recorded by the seismic network during the three year period 1982-1984, and three notable earthquake swarms out of the sixteen were recognized, in October, 1982 (named 82-C), March-April, 1984 (84-B) and July, 1984 (84-F). Swarms 84-B and 84-F have a large total number of earthquakes and large Ishimoto-Iida's "m"; hence these two swarms are presumed to constitute on one of the precursor phenomena to the new eruption, which took place on 13 September, 1984, and lasted a few months.

  10. Earthquake activity in Oklahoma

    SciTech Connect

    Luza, K.V.; Lawson, J.E. Jr. )

    1989-08-01

    Oklahoma is one of the most seismically active areas in the southern Mid-Continent. From 1897 to 1988, over 700 earthquakes are known to have occurred in Oklahoma. The earliest documented Oklahoma earthquake took place on December 2, 1897, near Jefferson, in Grant County. The largest known Oklahoma earthquake happened near El Reno on April 9, 1952. This magnitude 5.5 (mb) earthquake was felt from Austin, Texas, to Des Moines, Iowa, and covered a felt area of approximately 362,000 km{sup 2}. Prior to 1962, all earthquakes in Oklahoma (59) were either known from historical accounts or from seismograph stations outside the state. Over half of these events were located in Canadian County. In late 1961, the first seismographs were installed in Oklahoma. From 1962 through 1976, 70 additional earthquakes were added to the earthquake database. In 1977, a statewide network of seven semipermanent and three radio-telemetry seismograph stations were installed. The additional stations have improved earthquake detection and location in the state of Oklahoma. From 1977 to 1988, over 570 additional earthquakes were located in Oklahoma, mostly of magnitudes less than 2.5. Most of these events occurred on the eastern margin of the Anadarko basin along a zone 135 km long by 40 km wide that extends from Canadian County to the southern edge of Garvin County. Another general area of earthquake activity lies along and north of the Ouachita Mountains in the Arkoma basin. A few earthquakes have occurred in the shelves that border the Arkoma and Anadarko basins.

  11. Possible Biases in Characteristic Earthquake and Seismic Hazard Studies: Illustrations for the Wasatch, New Madrid, North Africa, and Eastern Canadian Seismic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swafford, L.; Stein, S.; Newman, A.; Friedrich, A.

    2005-12-01

    Attempts to study earthquake recurrence in space and time are limited in simple but frustrating ways by the short history of instrumental seismology compared to the long and variable recurrence time of large earthquakes. If major seismicity is spread uniformly with a seismic zone but the recurrence interval is long compared to the earthquake record, apparent differences in seismic hazard within the seismic zone inferred from the earthquake history are likely to simply reflect the short earthquake record. Simple numerical simulations suggest that this may be the case for the concentrated areas of high predicted hazard with seismic zones in North Africa, along the St. Lawrence valley, and the eastern coast of Canada. If so, with more time and a longer earthquake record, large earthquakes would likely occur over the entire seismic zone and show that the real hazard is uniform. Similarly, large earthquakes are likely to appear "characteristic", more frequent than would be inferred from the rates of smaller ones, for two reasons. First, a short history is likely to overestimate the rate of large earthquakes because fractions of earthquakes cannot be observed. Second, because the rates of small earthquakes are typically determined from the seismological record whereas the rates of large earthquakes are inferred from paleoseismology, biases in estimating paleomagnitudes can produce apparent characteristic earthquakes, as appears to have occurred for New Madrid. A further complexity is illustrated by results for the Wasatch seismic zone, where some studies find characteristic earthquake behavior whereas others do not. The discrepancy arises primarily because some studies consider the entire Wasatch front area whereas others focus on the Wasatch fault, on which only some of the smaller earthquakes but all of the large paleoearthquakes occur. Similar situations may arise in other seismic zones containing a major fault and a number of smaller ones.

  12. Defeating Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    The 2004 M=9.2 Sumatra earthquake claimed what seemed an unfathomable 228,000 lives, although because of its size, we could at least assure ourselves that it was an extremely rare event. But in the short space of 8 years, the Sumatra quake no longer looks like an anomaly, and it is no longer even the worst disaster of the Century: 80,000 deaths in the 2005 M=7.6 Pakistan quake; 88,000 deaths in the 2008 M=7.9 Wenchuan, China quake; 316,000 deaths in the M=7.0 Haiti, quake. In each case, poor design and construction were unable to withstand the ferocity of the shaken earth. And this was compounded by inadequate rescue, medical care, and shelter. How could the toll continue to mount despite the advances in our understanding of quake risk? The world's population is flowing into megacities, and many of these migration magnets lie astride the plate boundaries. Caught between these opposing demographic and seismic forces are 50 cities of at least 3 million people threatened by large earthquakes, the targets of chance. What we know for certain is that no one will take protective measures unless they are convinced they are at risk. Furnishing that knowledge is the animating principle of the Global Earthquake Model, launched in 2009. At the very least, everyone should be able to learn what his or her risk is. At the very least, our community owes the world an estimate of that risk. So, first and foremost, GEM seeks to raise quake risk awareness. We have no illusions that maps or models raise awareness; instead, earthquakes do. But when a quake strikes, people need a credible place to go to answer the question, how vulnerable am I, and what can I do about it? The Global Earthquake Model is being built with GEM's new open source engine, OpenQuake. GEM is also assembling the global data sets without which we will never improve our understanding of where, how large, and how frequently earthquakes will strike, what impacts they will have, and how those impacts can be lessened by

  13. Millenary Mw > 9.0 earthquakes required by geodetic strain in the Himalaya

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevens, V. L.; Avouac, J.-P.

    2016-02-01

    The Himalayan arc produced the largest known continental earthquake, the Mw ≈ 8.7 Assam earthquake of 1950, but how frequently and where else in the Himalaya such large-magnitude earthquakes occur is not known. Paleoseismic evidence for coseismic ruptures at the front of the Himalaya with 15 to 30 m of slip suggests even larger events in medieval times, but this inference is debated. Here we estimate the frequency and magnitude of the largest earthquake in the Himalaya needed so that the moment released by seismicity balances the deficit of moment derived from measurements of geodetic strain. Assuming one third of the moment buildup is released aseismically and the earthquakes roughly follow a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, we find that Mw > 9.0 events are needed with a confidence level of at least 60% and must return approximately once per 800 years on average.

  14. Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas fault.

    PubMed

    Shelly, David R

    2010-06-11

    Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between approximately 3 and approximately 6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes. PMID:20538948

  15. History of significant earthquakes in the Parkfield area

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.

    1988-01-01

    Seismicity on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield occurs in a tectonic section that differs markedly from neighboring sections along the San Andreas to the northwest and to the southeast. Northwest of the Parkfield section, small shocks (magnitudes of less than 4) do occur frequently, but San Andreas movement occurs predominantly as aseismic fault creep; shocks of magnitude 6 and larger are unknown, and little, if any, strain is accumulating. In contrast, very few small earthquakes and no aseismic slip have been observed on the adjacent section to the southeast, the Cholame section, which is considered to be locked, in as much as it apparently ruptures exclusively in large earthquakes (magnitudes greater than 7), most recently during the great Fort Tejon earthquake of 1857. The Parkfield section is thus a transition zone between two sections having different modes of fault failure. In fact, the regularity of significant earthquakes at Parkfield since 1857 may be due to the nearly constant slip rate pattern on the adjoining fault sections. Until the magnitude 6.7 Coalinga earthquake on May 2, 1983, 40 kilmoeters northeast of Parkfield, the Parkfield section had been relatively free of stress changes due to nearby shocks; the effect of the Coalinga shock on the timing of the next Parkfield shock is not known. 

  16. Volcanic earthquake swarms at Mt. Erebus, Antarctica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaminuma, Katsutada; Ueki, Sadato; Juergen, Kienle

    1985-04-01

    Mount Erebus is an active volcano in Antarctica located on Ross Island. A convecting lava lake occupies the summit crater of Mt. Erebus. Since December 1980 the seismic activity of Mt. Erebus has been continuously monitored using a radio-telemetered network of six seismic stations. The seismic activity observed by the Ross Island network during the 1982-1983 field season shows that: (1)Strombolian eruptions occur frequently at the Erebus summit lava lake at rates of 2-5 per day; (2)centrally located earthquakes map out a nearly vertical, narrow conduit system beneath the lava lake; (3)there are other source regions of seismicity on Ross Island, well removed from Mt. Erebus proper. An intense earthquake swarm recorded in October 1982 near Abbott Peak, 10 km northwest of the summit of Mt. Erebus, and volcanic tremor accompanying the swarm, may have been associated with new dike emplacement at depth.

  17. Distribution of similar earthquakes in aftershocks of inland earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, M.; Hiramatsu, Y.; Aftershock Observations Of 2007 Noto Hanto, G.

    2010-12-01

    Frictional properties control the slip behavior on a fault surface such as seismic slip and aseismic slip. Asperity, as a seismic slip area, is characterized by a strong coupling in the interseismic period and large coseismic slip. On the other hand, steady slip or afterslip occurs in an aseismic slip area around the asperity. If an afterslip area includes small asperities, a repeating rupture of single asperity can generate similar earthquakes due to the stress accumulation caused by the afterslip. We here investigate a detail distribution of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks of the 2007 Noto Hanto earthquake (Mjma 6.9) and the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake (Mjma 7.3), inland large earthquakes in Japan. We use the data obtained by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and by the group for the aftershock observations of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake. First, we select pairs of aftershocks whose cross correlation coefficients in 10 s time window of band-pass filtered waveforms of 1~4 Hz are greater than 0.95 at more than 5 stations and divide those into groups by a link of the cross correlation coefficients. Second, we reexamine the arrival times of P and S waves and the maximum amplitude for earthquakes of each group and apply the double-difference method (Waldhouser and Ellsworth, 2000) to relocate them. As a result of the analysis, we find 24 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2007 Noto Hanto Earthquake and 86 groups of similar earthquakes in the aftershocks on the source fault of the 2000 Western Tottori Earthquake. Most of them are distributed around or outside the asperity of the main shock. Geodetic studies reported that postseismic deformation was detected for the both earthquakes (Sagiya et al., 2002; Hashimoto et al., 2008). The source area of similar earthquakes seems to correspond to the afterslip area. These features suggest that the similar earthquakes observed

  18. Lightning activities associated with 308 M≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Taiwan during 1994-2003

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J. Y. G.; Chen, Y. I.; Ho, Y. Y.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake lights and luminous phenomena are spectacular features, which have been often observed and reported. It has been known that the crust deformation activates and releases gases/charges which generate the atmospheric electric field and currents possibly resulting in luminous phenomena before and during large earthquakes. The lightning activity has been known to be one of key parameters understanding the atmospheric electric field near the Earth's surface. However, lightning activities during large earthquakes have not yet been studied and reported. It is found that lightning activities significantly increase 3-8 and 20-30 days before the 21 September 1999 Mw7.6 earthquake. A statistical analysis has been conducted to study lightning activities over the epicenter 30 days before and after 78 land and 230 sea M≥5.0 earthquakes in Taiwan during 1994-2003. We find that lightning activities over the epicenter occur more frequently few days before the land earthquakes which is termed pre-earthquake lightning anomaly (PELA). For earthquakes with larger magnitudes, the PELA appears more frequent and expands a larger area from the epicenter. Our results confirm that the PELA associated with the M≥6.5 land earthquakes with the depth less than 20 km and 18 cumulative days meet the significant level 0.05. These suggest that for the PELA, the Earth's surface deformation plays an important role during the earthquake preparation period. We anticipate our study to be a starting point for developing lithosphere-atmosphere coupling model of earth system sciences.

  19. Hidden Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stein, Ross S.; Yeats, Robert S.

    1989-01-01

    Points out that large earthquakes can take place not only on faults that cut the earth's surface but also on blind faults under folded terrain. Describes four examples of fold earthquakes. Discusses the fold earthquakes using several diagrams and pictures. (YP)

  20. Earthquake faulting in subduction zones: insights from fault rocks in accretionary prisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ujiie, Kohtaro; Kimura, Gaku

    2014-12-01

    Subduction earthquakes on plate-boundary megathrusts accommodate most of the global seismic moment release, frequently resulting in devastating damage by ground shaking and tsunamis. As many earthquakes occur in deep-sea regions, the dynamics of earthquake faulting in subduction zones is poorly understood. However, the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Nankai Trough Seismogenic Zone Experiment (NanTroSEIZE) and fault rock studies in accretionary prisms exhumed from source depths of subduction earthquakes have greatly improved our understanding of earthquake faulting in subduction zones. Here, we review key advances that have been made over the last decade in the studies of fault rocks and in laboratory experiments using fault zone materials, with a particular focus on the Nankai Trough subduction zone and its on-land analog, the Shimanto accretionary complex in Japan. New insights into earthquake faulting in subduction zones are summarized in terms of the following: (1) the occurrence of seismic slip along velocity-strengthening materials both at shallow and deep depths; (2) dynamic weakening of faults by melt lubrication and fluidization, and possible factors controlling coseismic deformation mechanisms; (3) fluid-rock interactions and mineralogical and geochemical changes during earthquakes; and (4) geological and experimental aspects of slow earthquakes.

  1. A statistical study on ELF-whistlers/emissions and M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, J. Y.; Wang, K.; Chen, C. H.; Yang, W. H.; Yen, Y. H.; Chen, Y. I.; Hatorri, K.; Su, H. T.; Hsu, R. R.; Chang, C. H.

    2013-06-01

    In this paper, we conduct statistical approaches to study the potential relation between ELF-whistlers/emissions below 100 Hz and 20 M ≥ 5.0 earthquakes occurred in Taiwan in the period from 26 August 2003 to 13 July 2004. Occurrence ratios of the ELF-whistler and ELF-emission of the entire study period are computed as the reference backgrounds. Our study shows that the ELF-whistlers and ELF-emissions during the earthquake period appear less and more frequently than their associated backgrounds, respectively. For the ELF-emission, the larger earthquakes generally yield the higher occurrence ratios. The statistical analyses confirm that the occurrence ratios of the ELF-emission significantly enhance 5-7 days before the earthquakes and are proportional to the earthquake magnitude but inversely to the distance from the observatory to the epicenter.

  2. The 2004 Parkfield, CA Earthquake: A Teachable Moment for Exploring Earthquake Processes, Probability, and Earthquake Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kafka, A.; Barnett, M.; Ebel, J.; Bellegarde, H.; Campbell, L.

    2004-12-01

    The occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake provided a unique "teachable moment" for students in our science course for teacher education majors. The course uses seismology as a medium for teaching a wide variety of science topics appropriate for future teachers. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake occurred just 15 minutes after our students completed a lab on earthquake processes and earthquake prediction. That lab included a discussion of the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment as a motivation for the exercises they were working on that day. Furthermore, this earthquake was recorded on an AS1 seismograph right in their lab, just minutes after the students left. About an hour after we recorded the earthquake, the students were able to see their own seismogram of the event in the lecture part of the course, which provided an excellent teachable moment for a lecture/discussion on how the occurrence of the 2004 Parkfield earthquake might affect seismologists' ideas about earthquake prediction. The specific lab exercise that the students were working on just before we recorded this earthquake was a "sliding block" experiment that simulates earthquakes in the classroom. The experimental apparatus includes a flat board on top of which are blocks of wood attached to a bungee cord and a string wrapped around a hand crank. Plate motion is modeled by slowly turning the crank, and earthquakes are modeled as events in which the block slips ("blockquakes"). We scaled the earthquake data and the blockquake data (using how much the string moved as a proxy for time) so that we could compare blockquakes and earthquakes. This provided an opportunity to use interevent-time histograms to teach about earthquake processes, probability, and earthquake prediction, and to compare earthquake sequences with blockquake sequences. We were able to show the students, using data obtained directly from their own lab, how global earthquake data fit a Poisson exponential distribution better

  3. Living with earthquakes - development and usage of earthquake-resistant construction methods in European and Asian Antiquity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kázmér, Miklós; Major, Balázs; Hariyadi, Agus; Pramumijoyo, Subagyo; Ditto Haryana, Yohanes

    2010-05-01

    outermost layer was treated this way, the core of the shrines was made of simple rectangular blocks. The system resisted both in-plane and out-of-plane shaking quite well, as proven by survival of many shrines for more than a millennium, and by fracturing of blocks instead of displacement during the 2006 Yogyakarta earthquake. Systematic use or disuse of known earthquake-resistant techniques in any one society depends on the perception of earthquake risk and on available financial resources. Earthquake-resistant construction practice is significantly more expensive than regular construction. Perception is influenced mostly by short individual and longer social memory. If earthquake recurrence time is longer than the preservation of social memory, if damaging quakes fade into the past, societies commit the same construction mistakes again and again. Length of the memory is possibly about a generation's lifetime. Events occurring less frequently than 25-30 years can be readily forgotten, and the risk of recurrence considered as negligible, not worth the costs of safe construction practices. (Example of recurring flash floods in Hungary.) Frequent earthquakes maintain safe construction practices, like the Java masonry technique throughout at least two centuries, and like the Fachwerk tradition on Modern Aegean Samos throughout 500 years of political and technological development. (OTKA K67583)

  4. Large earthquake processes in the northern Vanuatu subduction zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleveland, K. Michael; Ammon, Charles J.; Lay, Thorne

    2014-12-01

    The northern Vanuatu (formerly New Hebrides) subduction zone (11°S to 14°S) has experienced large shallow thrust earthquakes with Mw > 7 in 1966 (MS 7.9, 7.3), 1980 (Mw 7.5, 7.7), 1997 (Mw 7.7), 2009 (Mw 7.7, 7.8, 7.4), and 2013 (Mw 8.0). We analyze seismic data from the latter four earthquake sequences to quantify the rupture processes of these large earthquakes. The 7 October 2009 earthquakes occurred in close spatial proximity over about 1 h in the same region as the July 1980 doublet. Both sequences activated widespread seismicity along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone. The focal mechanisms indicate interplate thrusting, but there are differences in waveforms that establish that the events are not exact repeats. With an epicenter near the 1980 and 2009 events, the 1997 earthquake appears to have been a shallow intraslab rupture below the megathrust, with strong southward directivity favoring a steeply dipping plane. Some triggered interplate thrusting events occurred as part of this sequence. The 1966 doublet ruptured north of the 1980 and 2009 events and also produced widespread aftershock activity. The 2013 earthquake rupture propagated southward from the northern corner of the trench with shallow slip that generated a substantial tsunami. The repeated occurrence of large earthquake doublets along the northern Vanuatu subduction zone is remarkable considering the doublets likely involved overlapping, yet different combinations of asperities. The frequent occurrence of large doublet events and rapid aftershock expansion in this region indicate the presence of small, irregularly spaced asperities along the plate interface.

  5. The 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance: A Case Study - Using an Earthquake Anniversary to Promote Earthquake Preparedness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocher, T. M.; Garcia, S.; Aagaard, B. T.; Boatwright, J. J.; Dawson, T.; Hellweg, M.; Knudsen, K. L.; Perkins, J.; Schwartz, D. P.; Stoffer, P. W.; Zoback, M.

    2008-12-01

    Last October 21st marked the 140th anniversary of the M6.8 1868 Hayward Earthquake, the last damaging earthquake on the southern Hayward Fault. This anniversary was used to help publicize the seismic hazards associated with the fault because: (1) the past five such earthquakes on the Hayward Fault occurred about 140 years apart on average, and (2) the Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault system is the most likely (with a 31 percent probability) fault in the Bay Area to produce a M6.7 or greater earthquake in the next 30 years. To promote earthquake awareness and preparedness, over 140 public and private agencies and companies and many individual joined the public-private nonprofit 1868 Hayward Earthquake Alliance (1868alliance.org). The Alliance sponsored many activities including a public commemoration at Mission San Jose in Fremont, which survived the 1868 earthquake. This event was followed by an earthquake drill at Bay Area schools involving more than 70,000 students. The anniversary prompted the Silver Sentinel, an earthquake response exercise based on the scenario of an earthquake on the Hayward Fault conducted by Bay Area County Offices of Emergency Services. 60 other public and private agencies also participated in this exercise. The California Seismic Safety Commission and KPIX (CBS affiliate) produced professional videos designed forschool classrooms promoting Drop, Cover, and Hold On. Starting in October 2007, the Alliance and the U.S. Geological Survey held a sequence of press conferences to announce the release of new research on the Hayward Fault as well as new loss estimates for a Hayward Fault earthquake. These included: (1) a ShakeMap for the 1868 Hayward earthquake, (2) a report by the U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasting the number of employees, employers, and wages predicted to be within areas most strongly shaken by a Hayward Fault earthquake, (3) new estimates of the losses associated with a Hayward Fault earthquake, (4) new ground motion

  6. Statistical similarity between high energy charged particle fluxes in near-earth space and earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, P.; Chang, Z.; Wang, H.; Lu, H.

    2014-05-01

    It has long been noticed that rapid short-term variations of high energy charged particle fluxes in near-Earth space occur more frequently several hours before the main shock of earthquakes. Physicists wish that this observation supply a possible precursor of strong earthquakes. Based on DEMETER data, we investigate statistical behaviors of flux fluctuations for high energy charged particles in near-Earth space. Long-term clustering, scaling, and universality in the temporal occurrence are found. There is high degree statistical similarity between high energy charged particle fluxes in near-Earth space and earthquakes. Thus, the observations of the high energy particle fluxes in near-Earth space may supply a useful tool in the study of earthquakes.

  7. Education for Earthquake Disaster Prevention in the Tokyo Metropolitan Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, S.; Tsuji, H.; Koketsu, K.; Yazaki, Y.

    2008-12-01

    Japan frequently suffers from all types of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. In the first half of this year, we already had three big earthquakes and heavy rainfall, which killed more than 30 people. This is not just for Japan but Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 90% of all those affected by disasters, and more than 50% of the total fatalities and economic losses. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage of natural disasters is to educate the general public to let them understand what is going on during those desasters. This leads individual to make the sound decision on what to do to prevent or reduce the damage. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools, and ERI, the Earthquake Research Institute, is qualified to develop education for earthquake disaster prevention in the Tokyo metropolitan area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1703 Genroku earthquake (M 8.0) and the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) which had 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global economic repercussion. To better understand earthquakes in this region, "Special Project for Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Tokyo Metropolitan Area" has been conducted mainly by ERI. It is a 4-year

  8. Upper-Plate Seismicity Remotely Triggered by the 2012 Mw-7.6 Nicoya Earthquake, Costa Rica

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Linkimer, L.; Arroyo, I. G.; Montero Pohly, W. K.; Lücke, O. H.

    2014-12-01

    Remotely triggered seismicity that takes place at distances greater than 1-2 fault lengths appears to be a frequent phenomenon after large earthquakes, including examples in Costa Rica after the large (Mw > 7.0) inter-plate earthquakes in 1941, 1950, 1983, 1990, and 1991. On September 5, 2012, an inter-plate 7.6-Mw earthquake struck the Nicoya Peninsula, triggering upper-plate seismicity in the interior of Costa Rica. In this study, we analyze the largest earthquakes and earthquake swarms that took place during the first nine months after the Nicoya earthquake. These swarms occurred at distances of 150 to 450 km from the Nicoya source region in different tectonic settings: the Calero Island near the Costa Rica-Nicaragua border in the backarc Caribbean region, the Sixaola region near the Costa Rica-Panama border in the backarc Caribbean region, the Cartago area in the central part of Costa Rica near the active volcanic arc, and the San Vito area in the Costa Rica-Panama border region, at the southern flank of the Talamanca Cordillera in an inactive portion of the magmatic arc. The Calero swarm with 70 2.0-to-4.2 Mw earthquakes took place from September 22 to October 9, 2012. The earthquake pattern suggests a smaller-scale fault as a possible source, which is located along the inland projection of the Hess Escarpment. The Cartago swarm with 284 1.8-to-4.1 Mw earthquakes occurred from September 5 to October 31, 2012. The focal mechanism solutions suggest that strike-slip faulting predominates in this region, consistent with neotectonic observations. The San Vito earthquake swarm with 30 2.3-to-4.5 Mw earthquakes occurred between October 14, 2012 and January 28, 2013. These earthquakes occurred in the vicinity of north-south striking faults, which are located along the inland projection of the Panama Fracture Zone. The largest earthquake (5.6 Mw) occurred on the Sixaola region on 27 of May, 2013. The focal mechanism solution suggests a thrust fault that correlates with

  9. Intrastab Earthquakes: Dehydration of the Cascadia Slab

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Preston, L.A.; Creager, K.C.; Crosson, R.S.; Brocher, T.M.; Trehu, A.M.

    2003-01-01

    We simultaneously invert travel times of refracted and wide-angle reflected waves for three-dimensional compressional-wave velocity structure, earthquake locations, and reflector geometry in northwest Washington state. The reflector, interpreted to be the crust-mantle boundary (Moho) of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, separates intrastab earthquakes into two groups, permitting a new understanding of the origins of intrastab earthquakes in Cascadia. Earthquakes up-dip of the Moho's 45-kilometer depth contour occur below the reflector, in the subducted oceanic mantle, consistent with serpentinite dehydration; earthquakes located down-dip occur primarily within the subducted crust, consistent with the basalt-to-eclogite transformation.

  10. Intraslab earthquakes: dehydration of the Cascadia slab.

    PubMed

    Preston, Leiph A; Creager, Kenneth C; Crosson, Robert S; Brocher, Thomas M; Trehu, Anne M

    2003-11-14

    We simultaneously invert travel times of refracted and wide-angle reflected waves for three-dimensional compressional-wave velocity structure, earthquake locations, and reflector geometry in northwest Washington state. The reflector, interpreted to be the crust-mantle boundary (Moho) of the subducting Juan de Fuca plate, separates intraslab earthquakes into two groups, permitting a new understanding of the origins of intraslab earthquakes in Cascadia. Earthquakes up-dip of the Moho's 45-kilometer depth contour occur below the reflector, in the subducted oceanic mantle, consistent with serpentinite dehydration; earthquakes located down-dip occur primarily within the subducted crust, consistent with the basalt-to-eclogite transformation. PMID:14615535

  11. Triggering of repeated earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobolev, G. A.; Zakrzhevskaya, N. A.; Sobolev, D. G.

    2016-03-01

    Based on the analysis of the world's earthquakes with magnitudes M ≥ 6.5 for 1960-2013, it is shown that they cause global-scale coherent seismic oscillations which most distinctly manifest themselves in the period interval of 4-6 min during 1-3 days after the event. After these earthquakes, a repeated shock has an increased probability to occur in different seismically active regions located as far away as a few thousand km from the previous event, i.e., a remote interaction of seismic events takes place. The number of the repeated shocks N( t) decreases with time, which characterizes the memory of the lithosphere about the impact that has occurred. The time decay N( t) can be approximated by the linear, exponential, and powerlaw dependences. No distinct correlation between the spatial locations of the initial and repeated earthquakes is revealed. The probable triggering mechanisms of the remote interaction between the earthquakes are discussed. Surface seismic waves traveling several times around the Earth's, coherent oscillations, and global source are the most preferable candidates. This may lead to the accumulation and coalescence of ruptures in the highly stressed or weakened domains of a seismically active region, which increases the probability of a repeated earthquake.

  12. Seismology: Remote-controlled earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayes, Gavin

    2016-04-01

    Large earthquakes cause other quakes near and far. Analyses of quakes in Pakistan and Chile suggest that such triggering can occur almost instantaneously, making triggered events hard to detect, and potentially enhancing the associated hazards.

  13. Earthquakes in Stable Continental Crust.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnston, Arch C.; Kanter, Lisa R.

    1990-01-01

    Discussed are some of the reasons for earthquakes which occur in stable crust away from familiar zones at the ends of tectonic plates. Crust stability and the reactivation of old faults are described using examples from India and Australia. (CW)

  14. Earthquake Hazards.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Donovan, Neville

    1979-01-01

    Provides a survey and a review of earthquake activity and global tectonics from the advancement of the theory of continental drift to the present. Topics include: an identification of the major seismic regions of the earth, seismic measurement techniques, seismic design criteria for buildings, and the prediction of earthquakes. (BT)

  15. Earthquake prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Turcotte, Donald L.

    1991-01-01

    The state of the art in earthquake prediction is discussed. Short-term prediction based on seismic precursors, changes in the ratio of compressional velocity to shear velocity, tilt and strain precursors, electromagnetic precursors, hydrologic phenomena, chemical monitors, and animal behavior is examined. Seismic hazard assessment is addressed, and the applications of dynamical systems to earthquake prediction are discussed.

  16. Tectonic controls on earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate: slab buoyancy and slab bending

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nishikawa, T.; Ide, S.

    2014-12-01

    There are clear variations in maximum earthquake magnitude among Earth's subduction zones. These variations have been studied extensively and attributed to differences in tectonic properties in subduction zones, such as relative plate velocity and subducting plate age [Ruff and Kanamori, 1980]. In addition to maximum earthquake magnitude, the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes also differs among subduction zones, such as the b-value (i.e., the slope of the earthquake size distribution) and the frequency of seismic events. However, the casual relationship between the seismicity of medium to large earthquakes and subduction zone tectonics has been unclear. Here we divide Earth's subduction zones into over 100 study regions following Ide [2013] and estimate b-values and the background seismicity rate—the frequency of seismic events excluding aftershocks—for subduction zones worldwide using the maximum likelihood method [Utsu, 1965; Aki, 1965] and the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model [Ogata, 1988]. We demonstrate that the b-value varies as a function of subducting plate age and trench depth, and that the background seismicity rate is related to the degree of slab bending at the trench. Large earthquakes tend to occur relatively frequently (lower b-values) in shallower subduction zones with younger slabs, and more earthquakes occur in subduction zones with deeper trench and steeper dip angle. These results suggest that slab buoyancy, which depends on subducting plate age, controls the earthquake size distribution, and that intra-slab faults due to slab bending, which increase with the steepness of the slab dip angle, have influence on the frequency of seismic events, because they produce heterogeneity in plate coupling and efficiently inject fluid to elevate pore fluid pressure on the plate interface. This study reveals tectonic factors that control earthquake size distribution and seismicity rate, and these relationships between seismicity and

  17. Earthquake Drill using the Earthquake Early Warning System at an Elementary School

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oki, Satoko; Yazaki, Yoshiaki; Koketsu, Kazuki

    2010-05-01

    Japan frequently suffers from many kinds of disasters such as earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. On average, we lose about 120 people a year due to natural hazards in this decade. Above all, earthquakes are noteworthy, since it may kill thousands of people in a moment like in Kobe in 1995. People know that we may have "a big one" some day as long as we live on this land and that what to do; retrofit houses, appliance heavy furniture to walls, add latches to kitchen cabinets, and prepare emergency packs. Yet most of them do not take the action, and result in the loss of many lives. It is only the victims that learn something from the earthquake, and it has never become the lore of the nations. One of the most essential ways to reduce the damage is to educate the general public to be able to make the sound decision on what to do at the moment when an earthquake hits. This will require the knowledge of the backgrounds of the on-going phenomenon. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), therefore, offered for public subscription to choose several model areas to adopt scientific education to the local elementary schools. This presentation is the report of a year and half courses that we had at the model elementary school in Tokyo Metropolitan Area. The tectonic setting of this area is very complicated; there are the Pacific and Philippine Sea plates subducting beneath the North America and the Eurasia plates. The subduction of the Philippine Sea plate causes mega-thrust earthquakes such as the 1923 Kanto earthquake (M 7.9) making 105,000 fatalities. A magnitude 7 or greater earthquake beneath this area is recently evaluated to occur with a probability of 70 % in 30 years. This is of immediate concern for the devastating loss of life and property because the Tokyo urban region now has a population of 42 million and is the center of approximately 40 % of the nation's activities, which may cause great global

  18. Analog earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Hofmann, R.B.

    1995-09-01

    Analogs are used to understand complex or poorly understood phenomena for which little data may be available at the actual repository site. Earthquakes are complex phenomena, and they can have a large number of effects on the natural system, as well as on engineered structures. Instrumental data close to the source of large earthquakes are rarely obtained. The rare events for which measurements are available may be used, with modfications, as analogs for potential large earthquakes at sites where no earthquake data are available. In the following, several examples of nuclear reactor and liquified natural gas facility siting are discussed. A potential use of analog earthquakes is proposed for a high-level nuclear waste (HLW) repository.

  19. Complex earthquake rupture and local tsunamis

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, E.L.

    2002-01-01

    In contrast to far-field tsunami amplitudes that are fairly well predicted by the seismic moment of subduction zone earthquakes, there exists significant variation in the scaling of local tsunami amplitude with respect to seismic moment. From a global catalog of tsunami runup observations this variability is greatest for the most frequently occuring tsunamigenic subduction zone earthquakes in the magnitude range of 7 < Mw < 8.5. Variability in local tsunami runup scaling can be ascribed to tsunami source parameters that are independent of seismic moment: variations in the water depth in the source region, the combination of higher slip and lower shear modulus at shallow depth, and rupture complexity in the form of heterogeneous slip distribution patterns. The focus of this study is on the effect that rupture complexity has on the local tsunami wave field. A wide range of slip distribution patterns are generated using a stochastic, self-affine source model that is consistent with the falloff of far-field seismic displacement spectra at high frequencies. The synthetic slip distributions generated by the stochastic source model are discretized and the vertical displacement fields from point source elastic dislocation expressions are superimposed to compute the coseismic vertical displacement field. For shallow subduction zone earthquakes it is demonstrated that self-affine irregularities of the slip distribution result in significant variations in local tsunami amplitude. The effects of rupture complexity are less pronounced for earthquakes at greater depth or along faults with steep dip angles. For a test region along the Pacific coast of central Mexico, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude is calculated for a large number (N = 100) of synthetic slip distribution patterns, all with identical seismic moment (Mw = 8.1). Analysis of the results indicates that for earthquakes of a fixed location, geometry, and seismic moment, peak nearshore tsunami amplitude can vary by a

  20. Anthropogenic Triggering of Large Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-08-01

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor ``foreshocks'', since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years.

  1. Anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1-10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor "foreshocks", since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years. PMID:25156190

  2. Anthropogenic Triggering of Large Earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Mulargia, Francesco; Bizzarri, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    The physical mechanism of the anthropogenic triggering of large earthquakes on active faults is studied on the basis of experimental phenomenology, i.e., that earthquakes occur on active tectonic faults, that crustal stress values are those measured in situ and, on active faults, comply to the values of the stress drop measured for real earthquakes, that the static friction coefficients are those inferred on faults, and that the effective triggering stresses are those inferred for real earthquakes. Deriving the conditions for earthquake nucleation as a time-dependent solution of the Tresca-Von Mises criterion applied in the framework of poroelasticity yields that active faults can be triggered by fluid overpressures < 0.1 MPa. Comparing this with the deviatoric stresses at the depth of crustal hypocenters, which are of the order of 1–10 MPa, we find that injecting in the subsoil fluids at the pressures typical of oil and gas production and storage may trigger destructive earthquakes on active faults at a few tens of kilometers. Fluid pressure propagates as slow stress waves along geometric paths operating in a drained condition and can advance the natural occurrence of earthquakes by a substantial amount of time. Furthermore, it is illusory to control earthquake triggering by close monitoring of minor “foreshocks”, since the induction may occur with a delay up to several years. PMID:25156190

  3. Charles Darwin's earthquake reports

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galiev, Shamil

    2010-05-01

    As it is the 200th anniversary of Darwin's birth, 2009 has also been marked as 170 years since the publication of his book Journal of Researches. During the voyage Darwin landed at Valdivia and Concepcion, Chile, just before, during, and after a great earthquake, which demolished hundreds of buildings, killing and injuring many people. Land was waved, lifted, and cracked, volcanoes awoke and giant ocean waves attacked the coast. Darwin was the first geologist to observe and describe the effects of the great earthquake during and immediately after. These effects sometimes repeated during severe earthquakes; but great earthquakes, like Chile 1835, and giant earthquakes, like Chile 1960, are rare and remain completely unpredictable. This is one of the few areas of science, where experts remain largely in the dark. Darwin suggested that the effects were a result of ‘ …the rending of strata, at a point not very deep below the surface of the earth…' and ‘…when the crust yields to the tension, caused by its gradual elevation, there is a jar at the moment of rupture, and a greater movement...'. Darwin formulated big ideas about the earth evolution and its dynamics. These ideas set the tone for the tectonic plate theory to come. However, the plate tectonics does not completely explain why earthquakes occur within plates. Darwin emphasised that there are different kinds of earthquakes ‘...I confine the foregoing observations to the earthquakes on the coast of South America, or to similar ones, which seem generally to have been accompanied by elevation of the land. But, as we know that subsidence has gone on in other quarters of the world, fissures must there have been formed, and therefore earthquakes...' (we cite the Darwin's sentences following researchspace. auckland. ac. nz/handle/2292/4474). These thoughts agree with results of the last publications (see Nature 461, 870-872; 636-639 and 462, 42-43; 87-89). About 200 years ago Darwin gave oneself airs by the

  4. The CATDAT damaging earthquakes database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, J. E.; Khazai, B.; Wenzel, F.; Vervaeck, A.

    2011-08-01

    The global CATDAT damaging earthquakes and secondary effects (tsunami, fire, landslides, liquefaction and fault rupture) database was developed to validate, remove discrepancies, and expand greatly upon existing global databases; and to better understand the trends in vulnerability, exposure, and possible future impacts of such historic earthquakes. Lack of consistency and errors in other earthquake loss databases frequently cited and used in analyses was a major shortcoming in the view of the authors which needed to be improved upon. Over 17 000 sources of information have been utilised, primarily in the last few years, to present data from over 12 200 damaging earthquakes historically, with over 7000 earthquakes since 1900 examined and validated before insertion into the database. Each validated earthquake includes seismological information, building damage, ranges of social losses to account for varying sources (deaths, injuries, homeless, and affected), and economic losses (direct, indirect, aid, and insured). Globally, a slightly increasing trend in economic damage due to earthquakes is not consistent with the greatly increasing exposure. The 1923 Great Kanto (214 billion USD damage; 2011 HNDECI-adjusted dollars) compared to the 2011 Tohoku (>300 billion USD at time of writing), 2008 Sichuan and 1995 Kobe earthquakes show the increasing concern for economic loss in urban areas as the trend should be expected to increase. Many economic and social loss values not reported in existing databases have been collected. Historical GDP (Gross Domestic Product), exchange rate, wage information, population, HDI (Human Development Index), and insurance information have been collected globally to form comparisons. This catalogue is the largest known cross-checked global historic damaging earthquake database and should have far-reaching consequences for earthquake loss estimation, socio-economic analysis, and the global reinsurance field.

  5. Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Bam: A Comparative Evaluation of Pre- and Post-Earthquake Years (1999–2008)

    PubMed Central

    Sharifi, I; Nakhaei, N; Aflatoonian, MR; Parizi, M Hakimi; Fekri, AR; Safizadeh, H; Shirzadi, MR; Gooya, MM; Khamesipour, A; Nadim, A

    2011-01-01

    Background: The recent devastating earthquake of December 26 in Bam, 2003 created various risk factors; caused a sharp increase in incidence of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) cases and reached to an epidemic proportion. The objective of this study was to evaluate the status of ACL cases five years before the earthquake compared to the cases occurred five years after the earthquake (1999–2008). Methods: Status of disease was assessed retrospectively for the five years before the earthquake and prospectively for the five years after the earthquake. Identification was confirmed by smear and polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Results: The mean annual incidence of ACL for the period from 1999 to 2003 was 1.9 per 1000 comparing to post earthquake period, which was 7.6 per 1000. Most of the infection was in individuals of <20 years, more frequently in females before the earthquake, whilst in contrast, there was a progressive rise in the number of cases, significantly in male individuals of >20 years (P< 0.0001) in post earthquake era. The anatomical distribution of lesions considerably changed during the two periods. Most of the cases were limited to three zones within the city prior to the earthquake, whereas it was spread throughout different zones after the earthquake. PCR indicated that the CL was due to Leishmania tropica in the city. Conclusion: The results strongly suggest that in natural disasters such as earthquakes various precipitating factors in favor of disease will be created, which in turn provide a suitable condition for propagation of the vector and the transmission of the parasite. PMID:23113072

  6. Testing earthquake predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luen, Brad; Stark, Philip B.

    2008-01-01

    Statistical tests of earthquake predictions require a null hypothesis to model occasional chance successes. To define and quantify 'chance success' is knotty. Some null hypotheses ascribe chance to the Earth: Seismicity is modeled as random. The null distribution of the number of successful predictions - or any other test statistic - is taken to be its distribution when the fixed set of predictions is applied to random seismicity. Such tests tacitly assume that the predictions do not depend on the observed seismicity. Conditioning on the predictions in this way sets a low hurdle for statistical significance. Consider this scheme: When an earthquake of magnitude 5.5 or greater occurs anywhere in the world, predict that an earthquake at least as large will occur within 21 days and within an epicentral distance of 50 km. We apply this rule to the Harvard centroid-moment-tensor (CMT) catalog for 2000-2004 to generate a set of predictions. The null hypothesis is that earthquake times are exchangeable conditional on their magnitudes and locations and on the predictions - a common "nonparametric" assumption in the literature. We generate random seismicity by permuting the times of events in the CMT catalog. We consider an event successfully predicted only if (i) it is predicted and (ii) there is no larger event within 50 km in the previous 21 days. The P-value for the observed success rate is <0.001: The method successfully predicts about 5% of earthquakes, far better than 'chance' because the predictor exploits the clustering of earthquakes - occasional foreshocks - which the null hypothesis lacks. Rather than condition on the predictions and use a stochastic model for seismicity, it is preferable to treat the observed seismicity as fixed, and to compare the success rate of the predictions to the success rate of simple-minded predictions like those just described. If the proffered predictions do no better than a simple scheme, they have little value.

  7. Earthquake hazards: a national threat

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2006-01-01

    Earthquakes are one of the most costly natural hazards faced by the Nation, posing a significant risk to 75 million Americans in 39 States. The risks that earthquakes pose to society, including death, injury, and economic loss, can be greatly reduced by (1) better planning, construction, and mitigation practices before earthquakes happen, and (2) providing critical and timely information to improve response after they occur. As part of the multi-agency National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has the lead Federal responsibility to provide notification of earthquakes in order to enhance public safety and to reduce losses through effective forecasts based on the best possible scientific information.

  8. Earthquake Simulator Finds Tremor Triggers

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, Paul

    2015-03-27

    Using a novel device that simulates earthquakes in a laboratory setting, a Los Alamos researcher has found that seismic waves-the sounds radiated from earthquakes-can induce earthquake aftershocks, often long after a quake has subsided. The research provides insight into how earthquakes may be triggered and how they recur. Los Alamos researcher Paul Johnson and colleague Chris Marone at Penn State have discovered how wave energy can be stored in certain types of granular materials-like the type found along certain fault lines across the globe-and how this stored energy can suddenly be released as an earthquake when hit by relatively small seismic waves far beyond the traditional “aftershock zone” of a main quake. Perhaps most surprising, researchers have found that the release of energy can occur minutes, hours, or even days after the sound waves pass; the cause of the delay remains a tantalizing mystery.

  9. Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

    1997-01-01

    A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

  10. Earthquake Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinoza, Fernando

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the importance of the development of students' measurement and estimation skills. Analyzes earthquake data recorded at seismograph stations and explains how to read and modify the graphs. Presents an activity for student evaluation. (YDS)

  11. Groundwater Ion Content Precursors of Strong Earthquakes in Kamchatka (Russia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, P. F.; Ermini, A.; Kingsley, S. P.; Khatkevich, Y. M.; Gordeev, E. I.

    The Kamchatka peninsula, located in the far east of Russia, is a geologically active margin where the Pacific plate subducts beneath the North American and Eurasia plates. This area is characterised by frequent and strong seismic activity (magnitudes reaching 8.6) and epicentres are generally distributed offshore along the eastern coast of the peninsula. For many years, hydrogeochemicals have been sampled with a mean interval of three days to measure the most common ions in the groundwater of five deep wells in the southern area of the Kamchatka peninsula. In the last decade, five earthquakes with M > 6.5 have occurred at distances less than 250 km from these wells. These earthquakes were powerful enough for them to be considered as potential originators of precursors. In order to reveal possible precursors of these earthquakes, we analysed the groundwater ion contents. The quasi-periodic annual variation was filtered out, together with other slow trends, and then we smoothed out the high frequency fluctuations that arise from errors in a single measurement. When examining the data, we labelled each signal with an amplitude greater than three times the standard deviation as an irregularity and we made a first attempt at defining an anomaly as an irregularity occurring simultaneously in more than one parameter at each well. In a second definition we used the existence of an irregularity occurring simultaneously in each ion at more than one well. Then, on the basis of past results worldwide and the time interval between the earthquakes observed, we chose 158 days as the maximum temporal window between a possible anomaly and the subsequent earthquake. With the first anomaly definition we identified 6 anomalies with 4 possible successes and 2 failures. For the five earthquakes considered capable of producing precursors we obtained precursors in three cases. With the second anomaly definition we identified 10 anomalies with 7 possible successes and 3 failures and we

  12. The Apparent Periodicity of Felt Reports in the Alaskan Earthquake Record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hafner, L. A.; McNutt, S. R.

    2004-12-01

    Felt reports for Alaskan earthquakes were found to be non-uniformly distributed throughout the year. With a predominantly tourist economy, the Alaskan population nearly triples in the summer months, possibly affecting the reporting of earthquakes in the historical record. Using published felt reports from the National Earthquake Information Center and the Alaska Earthquake Information Center, the percentage of events felt each month in central mainland Alaska were tabulated and compared between the summer and winter seasons. Earthquakes were selected from January 1, 1990 to October 31, 2002, from latitudes 58 to 70 degrees N and longitudes 140 to 160 degrees W, and depths 0 to 200 km. 408 events were felt out of a total of 695 that occurred. A number of parameters, including time of day, latitude, longitude, and magnitude, were additionally compared to specify possible limiting factors within each season. While a strong seasonal effect was not found in magnitude 4.0 ML events and greater, the months of May and June were consistently found to have the highest percentage of felt events with a steep drop occurring in the month of July. We ascribe this effect to the summer melting of the top layer of frozen ground to a depth of about 1.5 meters. Additionally, smaller events from magnitude 1.0 to 4.0 ML were also examined. 396 events were felt out of a total of 7,451 that occurred. We found that small earthquakes were felt, with a significant difference, more readily during summer months than in winter. This is likely an effect of the higher summer population of tourists and greater distribution of open businesses. Together these observations suggest that the historical Alaskan earthquake record is likely biased in favor of more frequent reporting of events occurring in summer months as opposed to winter.

  13. Differentially Private Frequent Subgraph Mining

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Shengzhi; Xiong, Li; Cheng, Xiang; Xiao, Ke

    2016-01-01

    Mining frequent subgraphs from a collection of input graphs is an important topic in data mining research. However, if the input graphs contain sensitive information, releasing frequent subgraphs may pose considerable threats to individual's privacy. In this paper, we study the problem of frequent subgraph mining (FGM) under the rigorous differential privacy model. We introduce a novel differentially private FGM algorithm, which is referred to as DFG. In this algorithm, we first privately identify frequent subgraphs from input graphs, and then compute the noisy support of each identified frequent subgraph. In particular, to privately identify frequent subgraphs, we present a frequent subgraph identification approach which can improve the utility of frequent subgraph identifications through candidates pruning. Moreover, to compute the noisy support of each identified frequent subgraph, we devise a lattice-based noisy support derivation approach, where a series of methods has been proposed to improve the accuracy of the noisy supports. Through formal privacy analysis, we prove that our DFG algorithm satisfies ε-differential privacy. Extensive experimental results on real datasets show that the DFG algorithm can privately find frequent subgraphs with high data utility.

  14. Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, P.A.; Savage, H.; Knuth, M.; Gomberg, J.; Marone, C.

    2008-01-01

    It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence. ??2007 Nature Publishing Group.

  15. Effects of acoustic waves on stick-slip in granular media and implications for earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Paul A; Savage, Heather; Knuth, Matt; Gomberg, Joan; Marone, Chris

    2008-01-01

    It remains unknown how the small strains induced by seismic waves can trigger earthquakes at large distances, in some cases thousands of kilometres from the triggering earthquake, with failure often occurring long after the waves have passed. Earthquake nucleation is usually observed to take place at depths of 10-20 km, and so static overburden should be large enough to inhibit triggering by seismic-wave stress perturbations. To understand the physics of dynamic triggering better, as well as the influence of dynamic stressing on earthquake recurrence, we have conducted laboratory studies of stick-slip in granular media with and without applied acoustic vibration. Glass beads were used to simulate granular fault zone material, sheared under constant normal stress, and subject to transient or continuous perturbation by acoustic waves. Here we show that small-magnitude failure events, corresponding to triggered aftershocks, occur when applied sound-wave amplitudes exceed several microstrain. These events are frequently delayed or occur as part of a cascade of small events. Vibrations also cause large slip events to be disrupted in time relative to those without wave perturbation. The effects are observed for many large-event cycles after vibrations cease, indicating a strain memory in the granular material. Dynamic stressing of tectonic faults may play a similar role in determining the complexity of earthquake recurrence. PMID:18172496

  16. Predicted Surface Displacements for Scenario Earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Murray-Moraleda, Jessica R.

    2008-01-01

    In the immediate aftermath of a major earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) will be called upon to provide information on the characteristics of the event to emergency responders and the media. One such piece of information is the expected surface displacement due to the earthquake. In conducting probabilistic hazard analyses for the San Francisco Bay Region, the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) identified a series of scenario earthquakes involving the major faults of the region, and these were used in their 2003 report (hereafter referred to as WG03) and the recently released 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF). Here I present a collection of maps depicting the expected surface displacement resulting from those scenario earthquakes. The USGS has conducted frequent Global Positioning System (GPS) surveys throughout northern California for nearly two decades, generating a solid baseline of interseismic measurements. Following an earthquake, temporary GPS deployments at these sites will be important to augment the spatial coverage provided by continuous GPS sites for recording postseismic deformation, as will the acquisition of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) scenes. The information provided in this report allows one to anticipate, for a given event, where the largest displacements are likely to occur. This information is valuable both for assessing the need for further spatial densification of GPS coverage before an event and prioritizing sites to resurvey and InSAR data to acquire in the immediate aftermath of the earthquake. In addition, these maps are envisioned to be a resource for scientists in communicating with emergency responders and members of the press, particularly during the time immediately after a major earthquake before displacements recorded by continuous GPS stations are available.

  17. Frequent Itemset Hiding Algorithm Using Frequent Pattern Tree Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alnatsheh, Rami

    2012-01-01

    A problem that has been the focus of much recent research in privacy preserving data-mining is the frequent itemset hiding (FIH) problem. Identifying itemsets that appear together frequently in customer transactions is a common task in association rule mining. Organizations that share data with business partners may consider some of the frequent…

  18. The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities

    2008-01-01

    California?s 35 million people live among some of the most active earthquake faults in the United States. Public safety demands credible assessments of the earthquake hazard to maintain appropriate building codes for safe construction and earthquake insurance for loss protection. Seismic hazard analysis begins with an earthquake rupture forecast?a model of probabilities that earthquakes of specified magnitudes, locations, and faulting types will occur during a specified time interval. This report describes a new earthquake rupture forecast for California developed by the 2007 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP 2007).

  19. Major Existence of Very Low Frequency Earthquakes in Background Seismicity Along Subduction Zone of South-western Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishihara, Y.

    2003-12-01

    The condense, high quality and equalized broadband seismic network provided us to recognize the variety of seismic sources. The active volcanoes excite seismic waves with various frequency characteristics. Some cases show the long period seismic waves greater than 10 sec associates with volcanic activities. The tectonic seismic events originated at the close to trench zone are frequently lack of high frequency, greater than 1 Hz, seismic wave component. Meanwhile, the many low frequency earthquakes and tremors whose sources are not explicated are occurred in lower crust and subcrustal region. The subduction zone of Philippine Sea plate in south-western Japan is actively genetic area of low frequency earthquake group. The broadband seismic array of Japan region observed unknown long period ground motions. The seismograms are higher amplitude between 10 and 30 sec period than ground noise level. The earthquake JMA and USGS catalogues don_ft list about these long period seismograms. The arrival order of wave packet means that these events locate subduction zone around Japan. The hypocenters of unknown events are estimated by arrival times of vertical peak amplitude using the assumption that the ground motion dominates Rayleigh wave. The more detailed determination of major events is performed by combined technique for moment tensor inversion and grid search. The moment magnitude of uncatalogued event is greater than 3.5 because of the detection limitation. The largest event is distributed to about 4.5 Mw level and special event is greater than 5.0. The frequency characteristics show that source time is 7 to 20 sec by comparison with synthetic seismograms. We call these uncatalogued events _gvery low frequency earthquake_h. The hypocenters are located to two kinds of zones along the Philippine Sea subducting plate in south-western Japan. The one zone is very close to the trough. The seismicity listed by earthquake catalogues is low level in the zone and hypocenters are

  20. California earthquake history

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Toppozada, T.; Branum, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents an overview of the advancement in our knowledge of California's earthquake history since ??? 1800, and especially during the last 30 years. We first review the basic statewide research on earthquake occurrences that was published from 1928 through 2002, to show how the current catalogs and their levels of completeness have evolved with time. Then we review some of the significant new results in specific regions of California, and some of what remains to be done. Since 1850, 167 potentially damaging earthquakes of M ??? 6 or larger have been identified in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of 1.1 such events per year. Table I lists the earthquakes of M ??? 6 to 6.5 that were also destructive since 1812 in California and its border regions, indicating an average rate of one such event every ??? 5 years. Many of these occurred before 1932 when epicenters and magnitudes started to be determined routinely using seismographs in California. The number of these early earthquakes is probably incomplete in sparsely populated remote parts of California before ??? 1870. For example, 6 of the 7 pre-1873 events in table I are of M ??? 7, suggesting that other earthquakes of M 6.5 to 6.9 occurred but were not properly identified, or were not destructive. The epicenters and magnitudes (M) of the pre-instrumental earthquakes were determined from isoseismal maps that were based on the Modified Mercalli Intensity of shaking (MMI) at the communities that reported feeling the earthquakes. The epicenters were estimated to be in the regions of most intense shaking, and values of M were estimated from the extent of the areas shaken at various MMI levels. MMI VII or greater shaking is the threshold of damage to weak buildings. Certain areas in the regions of Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Eureka were each shaken repeatedly at MMI VII or greater at least six times since ??? 1812, as depicted by Toppozada and Branum (2002, fig. 19).

  1. Earthquakes for Kids

    MedlinePlus

    ... Hazards Data & Products Learn Monitoring Research Earthquakes for Kids Kid's Privacy Policy Earthquake Topics for Education FAQ Earthquake Glossary For Kids Prepare Google Earth/KML Files Earthquake Summary Posters ...

  2. What caused a large number of fatalities in the Tohoku earthquake?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ando, M.; Ishida, M.; Nishikawa, Y.; Mizuki, C.; Hayashi, Y.

    2012-04-01

    The Mw9.0 earthquake caused 20,000 deaths and missing persons in northeastern Japan. 115 years prior to this event, there were three historical tsunamis that struck the region, one of which is a "tsunami earthquake" resulted with a death toll of 22,000. Since then, numerous breakwaters were constructed along the entire northeastern coasts and tsunami evacuation drills were carried out and hazard maps were distributed to local residents on numerous communities. However, despite the constructions and preparedness efforts, the March 11 Tohoku earthquake caused numerous fatalities. The strong shaking lasted three minutes or longer, thus all residents recognized that this is the strongest and longest earthquake that they had been ever experienced in their lives. The tsunami inundated an enormous area at about 560km2 over 35 cities along the coast of northeast Japan. To find out the reasons behind the high number of fatalities due to the March 11 tsunami, we interviewed 150 tsunami survivors at public evacuation shelters in 7 cities mainly in Iwate prefecture in mid-April and early June 2011. Interviews were done for about 30min or longer focused on their evacuation behaviors and those that they had observed. On the basis of the interviews, we found that residents' decisions not to evacuate immediately were partly due to or influenced by earthquake science results. Below are some of the factors that affected residents' decisions. 1. Earthquake hazard assessments turned out to be incorrect. Expected earthquake magnitudes and resultant hazards in northeastern Japan assessed and publicized by the government were significantly smaller than the actual Tohoku earthquake. 2. Many residents did not receive accurate tsunami warnings. The first tsunami warning were too small compared with the actual tsunami heights. 3. The previous frequent warnings with overestimated tsunami height influenced the behavior of the residents. 4. Many local residents above 55 years old experienced

  3. Large historical earthquakes and tsunamis in a very active tectonic rift: the Gulf of Corinth, Greece

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Triantafyllou, Ioanna; Papadopoulos, Gerassimos

    2014-05-01

    The Gulf of Corinth is an active tectonic rift controlled by E-W trending normal faults with an uplifted footwall in the south and a subsiding hangingwall with antithetic faulting in the north. Regional geodetic extension rates up to about 1.5 cm/yr have been measured, which is one of the highest for tectonic rifts in the entire Earth, while seismic slip rates up to about 1 cm/yr were estimated. Large earthquakes with magnitudes, M, up to about 7 were historically documented and instrumentally recorded. In this paper we have compiled historical documentation of earthquake and tsunami events occurring in the Corinth Gulf from the antiquity up to the present. The completeness of the events reported improves with time particularly after the 15th century. The majority of tsunamis were caused by earthquake activity although the aseismic landsliding is a relatively frequent agent for tsunami generation in Corinth Gulf. We focus to better understand the process of tsunami generation from earthquakes. To this aim we have considered the elliptical rupture zones of all the strong (M≥ 6.0) historical and instrumental earthquakes known in the Corinth Gulf. We have taken into account rupture zones determined by previous authors. However, magnitudes, M, of historical earthquakes were recalculated from a set of empirical relationships between M and seismic intensity established for earthquakes occurring in Greece during the instrumental era of seismicity. For this application the macroseismic field of each one of the earthquakes was identified and seismic intensities were assigned. Another set of empirical relationships M/L and M/W for instrumentally recorded earthquakes in the Mediterranean region was applied to calculate rupture zone dimensions; where L=rupture zone length, W=rupture zone width. The rupture zones positions were decided on the basis of the localities of the highest seismic intensities and co-seismic ground failures, if any, while the orientation of the maximum

  4. The threat of silent earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cervelli, Peter

    2004-01-01

    Not all earthquakes shake the ground. The so-called silent types are forcing scientists to rethink their understanding of the way quake-prone faults behave. In rare instances, silent earthquakes that occur along the flakes of seaside volcanoes may cascade into monstrous landslides that crash into the sea and trigger towering tsunamis. Silent earthquakes that take place within fault zones created by one tectonic plate diving under another may increase the chance of ground-shaking shocks. In other locations, however, silent slip may decrease the likelihood of destructive quakes, because they release stress along faults that might otherwise seem ready to snap.

  5. Remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1992, remotely triggered earthquakes have been identified following large (M > 7) earthquakes in California as well as in other regions. These events, which occur at much greater distances than classic aftershocks, occur predominantly in active geothermal or volcanic regions, leading to theories that the earthquakes are triggered when passing seismic waves cause disruptions in magmatic or other fluid systems. In this paper, I focus on observations of remotely triggered earthquakes following moderate main shocks in diverse tectonic settings. I summarize evidence that remotely triggered earthquakes occur commonly in mid-continent and collisional zones. This evidence is derived from analysis of both historic earthquake sequences and from instrumentally recorded M5-6 earthquakes in eastern Canada. The latter analysis suggests that, while remotely triggered earthquakes do not occur pervasively following moderate earthquakes in eastern North America, a low level of triggering often does occur at distances beyond conventional aftershock zones. The inferred triggered events occur at the distances at which SmS waves are known to significantly increase ground motions. A similar result was found for 28 recent M5.3-7.1 earthquakes in California. In California, seismicity is found to increase on average to a distance of at least 200 km following moderate main shocks. This supports the conclusion that, even at distances of ???100 km, dynamic stress changes control the occurrence of triggered events. There are two explanations that can account for the occurrence of remotely triggered earthquakes in intraplate settings: (1) they occur at local zones of weakness, or (2) they occur in zones of local stress concentration. ?? 2007 The Geological Society of America.

  6. Earthquake statistics, spatiotemporal distribution of foci and source mechanisms - a key to understanding of the West Bohemia/Vogtland earthquake swarms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horálek, Josef; Čermáková, Hana; Fischer, Tomáš

    2016-04-01

    Earthquake swarms are sequences of numerous events closely clustered in space and time and do not have a single dominant mainshock. A few of the largest events in a swarm reach similar magnitudes and usually occur throughout the course of the earthquake sequence. These attributes differentiate earthquake swarms from ordinary mainshock-aftershock sequences. Earthquake swarms occur worldwide, in diverse geological units. The swarms typically accompany volcanic activity at margins of the tectonic plate but also occur in intracontinental areas where strain from tectonic-plate movement is small. The origin of earthquake swarms is still unclear. The swarms typically occur at the plate margins but also in intracontinental areas. West Bohemia-Vogtland represents one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe. It is characterised by a frequent reoccurrence of ML < 4.0 swarms and by high activity of crustal fluids. West Bohemia-Vogtland is one of the most active intraplate earthquake-swarm areas in Europe which also exhibits high activity of crustal fluids. The Nový Kostel focal zone (NK) dominates the recent seismicity, there were swarms in 1997, 2000, 2008 and 20011, and a striking non-swarm activity (mainshock-aftershock sequences) up to magnitude ML= 4.5 in May to August 2014. The swarms and the 2014 mainshock-aftershock sequences are located close to each other at depths between 6 and 13 km. The frequency-magnitude distributions of all the swarms show bimodal-like character: the most events obey the b-value = 1.0 distribution, but a group of the largest events depart significantly from it. All the ML > 2.8 swarm events are located in a few dense clusters which implies step by step rupturing of one or a few asperities during the individual swarms. The source mechanism patters (moment-tensor description, MT) of the individual swarms indicate several families of the mechanisms, which fit well geometry of respective fault segments. MTs of the most

  7. Hazard Assessment and Early Warning of Tsunamis: Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, K.

    2012-12-01

    . Tsunami hazard assessments or long-term forecast of earthquakes have not considered such a triggering or simultaneous occurrence of different types of earthquakes. The large tsunami at the Fukushima nuclear power station was due to the combination of the deep and shallow slip. Disaster prevention for low-frequency but large-scale hazard must be considered. The Japanese government established a general policy to for two levels: L1 and L2. The L2 tsunamis are the largest possible tsunamis with low frequency of occurrence, but cause devastating disaster once they occur. For such events, saving people's lives is the first priority and soft measures such as tsunami hazard maps, evacuation facilities or disaster education will be prepared. The L1 tsunamis are expected to occur more frequently, typically once in a few decades, for which hard countermeasures such as breakwater must be prepared to protect lives and properties of residents as well as economic and industrial activities.

  8. Some clinical characteristics of children who survived the Marmara earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Demir, Turkay; Demir, Demet Eralp; Alkas, Leyla; Copur, Mazlum; Dogangun, Burak; Kayaalp, Levent

    2010-02-01

    The Marmara earthquakes occurred in the Marmara Region (North West) of Turkey in 1999 and resulted in a death toll of approximately 20,000. This paper investigates the relationships between diagnoses and certain variables in children who developed emotional and/or behavioral disturbances in the aftermath of the Marmara earthquakes and were subsequently seen at a child psychiatry outpatient clinic. The variables evaluated are gender, age, the location where the earthquake was experienced, and the degree of losses, bodily injuries, and damage to the residence. Medical records of 321 children and adolescents ranging in age from 2 to 15 years who presented at the clinic due to problems associated with the earthquake between August 1999 and February 2000 were reviewed. Of the patients, 25.5% were diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), 16.5% with acute stress disorder (ASD) and 38% with adjustment disorder. No relationship is found between gender and diagnosis. Younger age groups tended to be diagnosed with adjustment disorder. Those who had lost relatives, friends or neighbors were more frequently diagnosed with ASD or PTSD. The same was true for children whose residence was heavily damaged. Children and adolescents constitute the age group that is most severely affected by natural disasters and display significant emotional-behavioral disturbances. The frequency of ASD and PTSD found in our study is considerably high. Although rarely mentioned in the literature, adjustment disorder appears to be one of the most common reactions of children to trauma. PMID:19639383

  9. The parkfield, california, earthquake prediction experiment.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Lindh, A G

    1985-08-16

    Five moderate (magnitude 6) earthquakes with similar features have occurred on the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault in central California since 1857. The next moderate Parkfield earthquake is expected to occur before 1993. The Parkfield prediction experiment is designed to monitor the details of the final stages of the earthquake preparation process; observations and reports of seismicity and aseismic slip associated with the last moderate Parkfield earthquake in 1966 constitute much of the basis of the design of the experiment. PMID:17739363

  10. Source Parameters of European Intraplate Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braunmiller, J.

    2002-12-01

    Seismicity in the European-Mediterranean region follows mainly the plate boundary zones. However, a significant number of earthquakes is located inside the Eurasian plate in Europe. These intraplate events pose a serious hazard; for example, a repeat of the 1356 Basel earthquake, the largest historic earthquake in central Europe, could cause billions of US\\ in damage. The cause for intraplate seismicity is still poorly understood. Systematic fault parameter retrieval may improve our understanding of their origin in relation to the acting stresses and existing geologic structures. Here, I present robust, waveform modeling derived earthquake source parameters that provide the seismic moment tensor (principal stress axes), seismic moment and centroid depth. One data source is the global Harvard CMT catalog covering larger events (moment magnitude M_{w} \\geq 5) for a 26 year period. Such larger intraplate events, that can be analyzed with teleseismic data, occur infrequently. I thus used regional data from the evolving European broadband station network to analyze the more frequent moderate size events of the last three years. The magnitude threshold for regional analysis is M_{w}=4.5. In some areas with dense station coverage events as small as M_{w}$=3.5 can be analyzed. Regional analysis expands the spatial coverage and number of events significantly. The combined source parameter data set contains more than 60 intraplate events in Europe. Most intraplate activity is associated with known weak zones (palaeo-collision zones, former continental rifts and subduction zones, and passive continental margins) and other, slowly moving faults. Distributed seismicity in southeastern Europe may be related to the near-by active subduction and collision zones. Several events are probably mining induced and have large non double-couple source components. Thrust type source mechanisms are restricted to continental margins (offshore Norway) and former subduction zones (Romania

  11. What Can Sounds Tell Us About Earthquake Interactions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aiken, C.; Peng, Z.

    2012-12-01

    It is important not only for seismologists but also for educators to effectively convey information about earthquakes and the influences earthquakes can have on each other. Recent studies using auditory display [e.g. Kilb et al., 2012; Peng et al. 2012] have depicted catastrophic earthquakes and the effects large earthquakes can have on other parts of the world. Auditory display of earthquakes, which combines static images with time-compressed sound of recorded seismic data, is a new approach to disseminating information to a general audience about earthquakes and earthquake interactions. Earthquake interactions are influential to understanding the underlying physics of earthquakes and other seismic phenomena such as tremors in addition to their source characteristics (e.g. frequency contents, amplitudes). Earthquake interactions can include, for example, a large, shallow earthquake followed by increased seismicity around the mainshock rupture (i.e. aftershocks) or even a large earthquake triggering earthquakes or tremors several hundreds to thousands of kilometers away [Hill and Prejean, 2007; Peng and Gomberg, 2010]. We use standard tools like MATLAB, QuickTime Pro, and Python to produce animations that illustrate earthquake interactions. Our efforts are focused on producing animations that depict cross-section (side) views of tremors triggered along the San Andreas Fault by distant earthquakes, as well as map (bird's eye) views of mainshock-aftershock sequences such as the 2011/08/23 Mw5.8 Virginia earthquake sequence. These examples of earthquake interactions include sonifying earthquake and tremor catalogs as musical notes (e.g. piano keys) as well as audifying seismic data using time-compression. Our overall goal is to use auditory display to invigorate a general interest in earthquake seismology that leads to the understanding of how earthquakes occur, how earthquakes influence one another as well as tremors, and what the musical properties of these

  12. Revised seismic history of the El Pilar fault, Northeastern Venezuela, from the Cariaco 1997 earthquake and recent preliminary paleoseismic results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Audemard, Franck A.

    2007-07-01

    In light of the July 9, 1997, Cariaco earthquake, it is clearly understood now that damage in the city of Cumaná located in northeastern Venezuela and frequently destroyed by the largest earthquakes since the first recorded event in 1530 is strongly enhanced by poor soil conditions that, in turn, are responsible for site amplification and widespread earthquake-induced effects. Therefore, most previous macroseismic studies of historical earthquakes must be revaluated because those localized high-intensity values at Cumaná surely led to the misestimation of past epicenters. Preliminary paleoseismic results, gathered at three exploratory trenches dug across the surface break of the Cariaco 1997 earthquake in 1998, allow us to associate the 1684 earthquake with this recently ruptured fault segment that extends between the towns of San Antonio del Golfo and Río Casanay (roughly between the two gulfs of Cariaco and Paria, state of Sucre). Other major results from the reassessment of the seismic history of this fault are: (a) the 1766 event seems to have generated in a different source to the El Pilar fault because the size of the felt area suggests that it is an intermediate-depth earthquake; (b) damage to Cumaná produced by the 1797 event suggests that this was a local earthquake, perhaps equivalent to the 1929 earthquake, which ruptured for some 30 km just east of Cumaná into the Gulf of Cariaco; and (c) seismogenic association of the 1530 and 1853 earthquakes still remains unclear but it is very likely that these ruptures occurred offshore, as suggested by the rather large tsunami waves that both events have generated, placing their hypocenters west of Cumaná in the Cariaco Trough. This reassessment also sheds light into the El Pilar fault segmentation and the behavior of its seismogenic barriers through time.

  13. Blue Mountain Lake, New York, earthquake of October 7, 1983.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wendt, G.

    1984-01-01

    The October 7 earthquake near Blue Mountain Lake in the central Adirondack Mountains registered a preliminary Richter magnitude of 5.2. It was widely felt throughout the Northeastern United States and Canada and occurred in an area that has been periodically shaken by earthquakes throughout recorded history. Since 1737, at least 346 felt earthquakes have occurred in New York; an earthquake of similar magnitude last shook the Blue Mountain Lake area on June 9, 1975.    

  14. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Timothy H; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-12-01

    The 5 September 2012 M(w) 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr-Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

  15. Results of the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ya-Ting; Turcotte, Donald L.; Holliday, James R.; Sachs, Michael K.; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien-Chih; Tiampo, Kristy F.

    2011-01-01

    The Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models (RELM) test of earthquake forecasts in California was the first competitive evaluation of forecasts of future earthquake occurrence. Participants submitted expected probabilities of occurrence of M≥4.95 earthquakes in 0.1° × 0.1° cells for the period 1 January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2010. Probabilities were submitted for 7,682 cells in California and adjacent regions. During this period, 31 M≥4.95 earthquakes occurred in the test region. These earthquakes occurred in 22 test cells. This seismic activity was dominated by earthquakes associated with the M = 7.2, April 4, 2010, El Mayor–Cucapah earthquake in northern Mexico. This earthquake occurred in the test region, and 16 of the other 30 earthquakes in the test region could be associated with it. Nine complete forecasts were submitted by six participants. In this paper, we present the forecasts in a way that allows the reader to evaluate which forecast is the most “successful” in terms of the locations of future earthquakes. We conclude that the RELM test was a success and suggest ways in which the results can be used to improve future forecasts. PMID:21949355

  16. Earthquake and tsunami forecasts: Relation of slow slip events to subsequent earthquake rupture

    PubMed Central

    Dixon, Timothy H.; Jiang, Yan; Malservisi, Rocco; McCaffrey, Robert; Voss, Nicholas; Protti, Marino; Gonzalez, Victor

    2014-01-01

    The 5 September 2012 Mw 7.6 earthquake on the Costa Rica subduction plate boundary followed a 62-y interseismic period. High-precision GPS recorded numerous slow slip events (SSEs) in the decade leading up to the earthquake, both up-dip and down-dip of seismic rupture. Deeper SSEs were larger than shallower ones and, if characteristic of the interseismic period, release most locking down-dip of the earthquake, limiting down-dip rupture and earthquake magnitude. Shallower SSEs were smaller, accounting for some but not all interseismic locking. One SSE occurred several months before the earthquake, but changes in Mohr–Coulomb failure stress were probably too small to trigger the earthquake. Because many SSEs have occurred without subsequent rupture, their individual predictive value is limited, but taken together they released a significant amount of accumulated interseismic strain before the earthquake, effectively defining the area of subsequent seismic rupture (rupture did not occur where slow slip was common). Because earthquake magnitude depends on rupture area, this has important implications for earthquake hazard assessment. Specifically, if this behavior is representative of future earthquake cycles and other subduction zones, it implies that monitoring SSEs, including shallow up-dip events that lie offshore, could lead to accurate forecasts of earthquake magnitude and tsunami potential. PMID:25404327

  17. Earthquakes and plate tectonics.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1982-01-01

    Earthquakes occur at the following three kinds of plate boundary: ocean ridges where the plates are pulled apart, margins where the plates scrape past one another, and margins where one plate is thrust under the other. Thus, we can predict the general regions on the earth's surface where we can expect large earthquakes in the future. We know that each year about 140 earthquakes of magnitude 6 or greater will occur within this area which is 10% of the earth's surface. But on a worldwide basis we cannot say with much accuracy when these events will occur. The reason is that the processes in plate tectonics have been going on for millions of years. Averaged over this interval, plate motions amount to several mm per year. But at any instant in geologic time, for example the year 1982, we do not know, exactly where we are in the worldwide cycle of strain build-up and strain release. Only by monitoring the stress and strain in small areas, for instance, the San Andreas fault, in great detail can we hope to predict when renewed activity in that part of the plate tectonics arena is likely to take place. -from Author

  18. Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions

    MedlinePlus

    ... Planning Information on Specific Types of Emergencies Winter Weather Frequently Asked Questions Language: English Español (Spanish) Recommend ... I do if I get stranded in cold weather? Tie a brightly colored cloth to the antenna ...

  19. Comparative Seismic Study and its Tectonic Implications of two Recent Intermediate-Depth Earthquakes in Central Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamamoto, J.

    2002-12-01

    The genesis of intermediate-depth earthquakes is one of the most intriguing phenomenon in seismology. Basically the main problem arises because the temperature and pressure existing at depth inhibit the possibility of a brittle fracture. In Mexico, this problem is not only important from the theoretical point of view but also from practical reasons, intermediate-depth earthquakes occur inland in very populated areas and their ground motion accelerations seems to be higher than accelerations produced by shallow thrust earthquakes of the same magnitude. In the present paper we present a comparative study of two intermediate-depth earthquakes in central Mexico, the July 21, 2000 (5.9Ms) and the January 30, 2002 (5.1Ms). Both earthquakes share similar tectonic environment and show similar focal depth (~70-100 km). Their normal fault plane solution based on the polarity of the first motion and P-wave modeling can be interpreted as ruptures occurring along a pre-existing deep seated system of faults. This hypothesis is supported by the frequent occurrence of similar earthquakes in this area. Other possibilities are also commented.

  20. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake.

    PubMed

    Cisternas, Marco; Atwater, Brian F; Torrejón, Fernando; Sawai, Yuki; Machuca, Gonzalo; Lagos, Marcelo; Eipert, Annaliese; Youlton, Cristián; Salgado, Ignacio; Kamataki, Takanobu; Shishikura, Masanobu; Rajendran, C P; Malik, Javed K; Rizal, Yan; Husni, Muhammad

    2005-09-15

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. PMID:16163355

  1. Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cisternas, M.; Atwater, B.F.; Torrejon, F.; Sawai, Y.; Machuca, G.; Lagos, M.; Eipert, A.; Youlton, C.; Salgado, I.; Kamataki, T.; Shishikura, M.; Rajendran, C.P.; Malik, J.K.; Rizal, Y.; Husni, M.

    2005-01-01

    It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended. ?? 2005 Nature Publishing Group.

  2. The physics of an earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, John

    2008-03-01

    The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 26 December 2004 (Boxing Day 2004) and its tsunami will endure in our memories as one of the worst natural disasters of our time. For geophysicists, the scale of the devastation and the likelihood of another equally destructive earthquake set out a series of challenges of how we might use science not only to understand the earthquake and its aftermath but also to help in planning for future earthquakes in the region. In this article a brief account of these efforts is presented. Earthquake prediction is probably impossible, but earth scientists are now able to identify particularly dangerous places for future events by developing an understanding of the physics of stress interaction. Having identified such a dangerous area, a series of numerical Monte Carlo simulations is described which allow us to get an idea of what the most likely consequences of a future earthquake are by modelling the tsunami generated by lots of possible, individually unpredictable, future events. As this article was being written, another earthquake occurred in the region, which had many expected characteristics but was enigmatic in other ways. This has spawned a series of further theories which will contribute to our understanding of this extremely complex problem.

  3. Utilizing Changes in Repeating Earthquakes to Monitor Evolving Processes and Structure Before and During Volcanic Eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hotovec-Ellis, Alicia

    Repeating earthquakes are two or more earthquakes that share the same source location and source mechanism, which results in the earthquakes having highly similar waveforms when recorded at a seismic instrument. Repeating earthquakes have been observed in a wide variety of environments: from fault systems (such as the San Andreas and Cascadia subduction zone), to hydrothermal areas and volcanoes. Volcano seismologists are particularly concerned with repeating earthquakes, as they have been observed at volcanoes along the entire range of eruptive style and are often a prominent feature of eruption seismicity. The behavior of repeating earthquakes sometimes changes with time, which possibly reflects subtle changes in the mechanism creating the earthquakes. In Chapter 1, we document an example of repeating earthquakes during the 2009 eruption of Redoubt volcano that became increasingly frequent with time, until they blended into harmonic tremor prior to several explosions. We interpreted the source of the earthquakes as stick-slip on a fault near the conduit that slipped increasingly often as the explosion neared in response to the build-up of pressure in the system. The waveforms of repeating earthquakes may also change, even if the behavior does not. We can quantify changes in waveform using the technique of coda wave interferometry to differentiate between changes in source and medium. In Chapters 2 and 3, we document subtle changes in the coda of repeating earthquakes related to small changes in the near-surface velocity structure at Mount St. Helens before and during its eruption in 2004. Velocity changes have been observed prior to several volcanic eruptions, are thought to occur in response to volumetric strain and the opening or closing of cracks in the subsurface. We compared continuous records of velocity change against other geophysical data, and found that velocities at Mount St. Helens change in response to snow loading, fluid saturation, shaking from

  4. Two models for earthquake forerunners

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mjachkin, V.I.; Brace, W.F.; Sobolev, G.A.; Dieterich, J.H.

    1975-01-01

    Similar precursory phenomena have been observed before earthquakes in the United States, the Soviet Union, Japan, and China. Two quite different physical models are used to explain these phenomena. According to a model developed by US seismologists, the so-called dilatancy diffusion model, the earthquake occurs near maximum stress, following a period of dilatant crack expansion. Diffusion of water in and out of the dilatant volume is required to explain the recovery of seismic velocity before the earthquake. According to a model developed by Soviet scientists growth of cracks is also involved but diffusion of water in and out of the focal region is not required. With this model, the earthquake is assumed to occur during a period of falling stress and recovery of velocity here is due to crack closure as stress relaxes. In general, the dilatancy diffusion model gives a peaked precursor form, whereas the dry model gives a bay form, in which recovery is well under way before the earthquake. A number of field observations should help to distinguish between the two models: study of post-earthquake recovery, time variation of stress and pore pressure in the focal region, the occurrence of pre-existing faults, and any changes in direction of precursory phenomena during the anomalous period. ?? 1975 Birkha??user Verlag.

  5. The next new Madrid earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Atkinson, W.

    1988-01-01

    Scientists who specialize in the study of Mississippi Valley earthquakes say that the region is overdue for a powerful tremor that will cause major damage and undoubtedly some casualties. The inevitability of a future quake and the lack of preparation by both individuals and communities provided the impetus for this book. It brings together applicable information from many disciplines: history, geology and seismology, engineering, zoology, politics and community planning, economics, environmental science, sociology, and psychology and mental health to provide a perspective of the myriad impacts of a major earthquake on the Mississippi Valley. The author addresses such basic questions as What, actually, are earthquakes How do they occur Can they be predicted, perhaps even prevented He also addresses those steps that individuals can take to improve their chances for survival both during and after an earthquake.

  6. Long Period Earthquakes Beneath California's Young and Restless Volcanoes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pitt, A. M.; Dawson, P. B.; Shelly, D. R.; Hill, D. P.; Mangan, M.

    2013-12-01

    The newly established USGS California Volcano Observatory has the broad responsibility of monitoring and assessing hazards at California's potentially threatening volcanoes, most notably Mount Shasta, Medicine Lake, Clear Lake Volcanic Field, and Lassen Volcanic Center in northern California; and Long Valley Caldera, Mammoth Mountain, and Mono-Inyo Craters in east-central California. Volcanic eruptions occur in California about as frequently as the largest San Andreas Fault Zone earthquakes-more than ten eruptions have occurred in the last 1,000 years, most recently at Lassen Peak (1666 C.E. and 1914-1917 C.E.) and Mono-Inyo Craters (c. 1700 C.E.). The Long Valley region (Long Valley caldera and Mammoth Mountain) underwent several episodes of heightened unrest over the last three decades, including intense swarms of volcano-tectonic (VT) earthquakes, rapid caldera uplift, and hazardous CO2 emissions. Both Medicine Lake and Lassen are subsiding at appreciable rates, and along with Clear Lake, Long Valley Caldera, and Mammoth Mountain, sporadically experience long period (LP) earthquakes related to migration of magmatic or hydrothermal fluids. Worldwide, the last two decades have shown the importance of tracking LP earthquakes beneath young volcanic systems, as they often provide indication of impending unrest or eruption. Herein we document the occurrence of LP earthquakes at several of California's young volcanoes, updating a previous study published in Pitt et al., 2002, SRL. All events were detected and located using data from stations within the Northern California Seismic Network (NCSN). Event detection was spatially and temporally uneven across the NCSN in the 1980s and 1990s, but additional stations, adoption of the Earthworm processing system, and heightened vigilance by seismologists have improved the catalog over the last decade. LP earthquakes are now relatively well-recorded under Lassen (~150 events since 2000), Clear Lake (~60 events), Mammoth Mountain

  7. Patterns of Seismicity Characterizing the Earthquake Cycle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Yoder, M. R.; Holliday, J. R.; Schultz, K.; Wilson, J. M.; Donnellan, A.; Grant Ludwig, L.

    2015-12-01

    A number of methods to calculate probabilities of major earthquakes have recently been proposed. Most of these methods depend upon understanding patterns of small earthquakes preceding the large events. For example, the Natural Time Weibull method for earthquake forecasting (see www.openhazards.com) is based on the assumption that large earthquakes complete the Gutenberg-Richter scaling relation defined by the smallest earthquakes. Here we examine the scaling patterns of small earthquakes having magnitudes between cycles of large earthquakes. For example, in the region of California-Nevada between longitudes -130 to -114 degrees W, and latitudes 32 to 45 degrees North, we find 79 earthquakes having magnitudes M6 during the time interval 1933 - present, culminating with the most recent event, the M6.0 Napa, California earthquake of August 24, 2014. Thus we have 78 complete cycles of large earthquakes in this region. After compiling and stacking the smaller events occurring between the large events, we find a characteristic pattern of scaling for the smaller events. This pattern shows a scaling relation for the smallest earthquakes up to about 3earthquakes for 4.5earthquake having M~6.4. In addition, statistics indicate that departure of the successive earthquake cycles from their average pattern can be characterized by Coefficients of Variability and other measures. We discuss these ideas and apply them not only to California, but also to other seismically active areas in the world

  8. Earthquakes triggered by fluid extraction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Segall, P.

    1989-01-01

    Seismicity is correlated in space and time with production from some oil and gas fields where pore pressures have declined by several tens of megapascals. Reverse faulting has occurred both above and below petroleum reservoirs, and normal faulting has occurred on the flanks of at least one reservoir. The theory of poroelasticity requires that fluid extraction locally alter the state of stress. Calculations with simple geometries predict stress perturbations that are consistent with observed earthquake locations and focal mechanisms. Measurements of surface displacement and strain, pore pressure, stress, and poroelastic rock properties in such areas could be used to test theoretical predictions and improve our understanding of earthquake mechanics. -Author

  9. America's faulty earthquake plans

    SciTech Connect

    Rosen, J

    1989-10-01

    In this article, the author discusses the liklihood of major earthquakes in both the western and eastern United States as well as the level of preparedness of each region of the U.S. for a major earthquake. Current technology in both earthquake-resistance design and earthquake detection is described. Governmental programs for earthquake hazard reduction are outlined and critiqued.

  10. Earthquake waves and the geomagnetic dynamo.

    PubMed

    Mullan, D J

    1973-08-10

    It is proposed that earthquake waves energize the geomagnetic dynamo. Fluid motions generated by earthquakes may have enough energy to be in equipartition with fields as large as 100 gauss. Seismic waves from meteoritic impacts with energies sufficient to reverse the field occur every 170,000 years. PMID:17777805

  11. Darwin's earthquake.

    PubMed

    Lee, Richard V

    2010-07-01

    Charles Darwin experienced a major earthquake in the Concepción-Valdivia region of Chile 175 years ago, in February 1835. His observations dramatically illustrated the geologic principles of James Hutton and Charles Lyell which maintained that the surface of the earth was subject to alterations by natural events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and the erosive action of wind and water, operating over very long periods of time. Changes in the land created new environments and fostered adaptations in life forms that could lead to the formation of new species. Without the demonstration of the accumulation of multiple crustal events over time in Chile, the biologic implications of the specific species of birds and tortoises found in the Galapagos Islands and the formulation of the concept of natural selection might have remained dormant. PMID:21038753

  12. Characteristic and Uncharacteristic Earthquakes as Possible Artifacts: Applied to the New Madrid and Wabash Seismic Zones

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Newman, A. V.

    2003-12-01

    Generally, the largest events, characteristic earthquakes (CE), appear more often than expected from the Gutenberg-Richter relation. Whether this effect is real or apparent is an interesting question since apparent differences can arise from several possible situations. If the known history is shorter than or comparable to the recurrence time of largest events, apparent CEs can occur because sampling bias allows anomalous short recurrence to be observed more frequently (fractions of earthquakes cannot be observed). Alternatively, apparent CEs can occur if paleoseismic data overstimate magnitudes or underestimate recurrence. In the New Madrid Zone (NMSZ), simulations suggest that because the 2000 year paleoseismic record is 4x the accepted recurrence for CEs, there is a small probability of observing apparent CEs. A more significant effect is that paleoliquifaction data regionally appear to overestimate magnitudes. It is commonly assumed that the distribution of liquifaction, used for paleomagnitudes, near the NMSZ is smaller that seen globally. Liquefaction features extending 250 km from an earthquake in the NMSZ are interpreted as evidence for an M 8.3 event, rather than an M 7.6 as would be inferred from the global curve. This practice arose because the curve was calibrated assuming an M 8.3 for the 1811-12 events whereas more recent analysis finds M ˜7.4. Hence either the largest earthquakes are CEs or the paleoevents were smaller than those in 1811-12. The opposite effect occurs in the Wabash Valley Seismic zone, where the paleoearthquakes appear ``uncharacteristic'', less frequent than would be inferred from instrumental seismicity. The paleoseismic record is long enough that the discrepancy is unlikely to be a sampling artifact. Hence either the uncharacteristic behavior is real, or the paleoseismic record captures only a small fraction of the large preinstrumental earthquakes.

  13. Luzon earthquake strongest in 90 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    The magnitude 7.7 Philippine earthquake that took place 2 weeks ago was the strongest recorded on the island of Luzon in nearly 90 years and the strongest in all of the Philippines in nearly 14 years, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.The earthquake occurred 60 miles north of Manila and was the third strongest recorded on Luzon, exceeded only by an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.8, on December 14, 1901, near Lucena, about 80 miles southeast of Manila, and an earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.9 on August 15, 1897, off the northwest coast of Luzon.

  14. Nonlinear Network Dynamics on Earthquake Fault Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, P. B.; Rundle, J. B.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2001-12-01

    Understanding the physics of earthquakes is essential if large events are ever to be forecast. Real faults occur in topologically complex networks that exhibit cooperative, emergent space-time behavior that includes precursory quiescence or activation, and clustering of events. The purpose of this work is to investigate the sensitivity of emergent behavior of fault networks to changes in the physics on the scale of single faults or smaller. In order to investigate the effect of changes at small scales on the behavior of the network, we need to construct models of earthquake fault systems that contain the essential physics. A network topology is therefore defined in an elastic medium, the stress Green's functions (i.e. the stress transfer coefficients) are computed, frictional properties are defined and the system is driven via the slip deficit as defined below. The long-range elastic interactions produce mean-field dynamics in the simulations. We focus in this work on the major strike-slip faults in Southern California that produce the most frequent and largest magnitude events. To determine the topology and properties of the network, we used the tabulation of fault properties published in the literature. We have found that the statistical distribution of large earthquakes on a model of a topologically complex, strongly correlated real fault network is highly sensitive to the precise nature of the stress dissipation properties of the friction laws associated with individual faults. These emergent, self-organizing space-time modes of behavior are properties of the network as a whole, rather than of the individual fault segments of which the network is comprised (ref: PBR et al., Physical Review Letters, in press, 2001).

  15. Pain after earthquake

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Introduction On 6 April 2009, at 03:32 local time, an Mw 6.3 earthquake hit the Abruzzi region of central Italy causing widespread damage in the City of L Aquila and its nearby villages. The earthquake caused 308 casualties and over 1,500 injuries, displaced more than 25,000 people and induced significant damage to more than 10,000 buildings in the L'Aquila region. Objectives This observational retrospective study evaluated the prevalence and drug treatment of pain in the five weeks following the L'Aquila earthquake (April 6, 2009). Methods 958 triage documents were analysed for patients pain severity, pain type, and treatment efficacy. Results A third of pain patients reported pain with a prevalence of 34.6%. More than half of pain patients reported severe pain (58.8%). Analgesic agents were limited to available drugs: anti-inflammatory agents, paracetamol, and weak opioids. Reduction in verbal numerical pain scores within the first 24 hours after treatment was achieved with the medications at hand. Pain prevalence and characterization exhibited a biphasic pattern with acute pain syndromes owing to trauma occurring in the first 15 days after the earthquake; traumatic pain then decreased and re-surged at around week five, owing to rebuilding efforts. In the second through fourth week, reports of pain occurred mainly owing to relapses of chronic conditions. Conclusions This study indicates that pain is prevalent during natural disasters, may exhibit a discernible pattern over the weeks following the event, and current drug treatments in this region may be adequate for emergency situations. PMID:22747796

  16. Putting down roots in earthquake country-Your handbook for earthquakes in the Central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Contributors: Dart, Richard; McCarthy, Jill; McCallister, Natasha; Williams, Robert A.

    2011-01-01

    This handbook provides information to residents of the Central United States about the threat of earthquakes in that area, particularly along the New Madrid seismic zone, and explains how to prepare for, survive, and recover from such events. It explains the need for concern about earthquakes for those residents and describes what one can expect during and after an earthquake. Much is known about the threat of earthquakes in the Central United States, including where they are likely to occur and what can be done to reduce losses from future earthquakes, but not enough has been done to prepare for future earthquakes. The handbook describes such preparations that can be taken by individual residents before an earthquake to be safe and protect property.

  17. Earthquakes: A Teacher's Package for K-6. Revised Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Science Teachers Association, Arlington, VA.

    This teacher guide features five hands-on science units designed for elementary school students using an interdisciplinary approach. The first four units are presented at three different grade levels: K-2, 3-4, and 5-6. Units include: (1) "Defining an Earthquake"; (2) "Why and Where Earthquakes Occur"; (3) "Physical Results of Earthquakes"; (4)…

  18. Causes of earthquakes and lithospheric plates movement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostřihanský, L.

    2012-11-01

    The goal of the paper was to verify triggering of earthquakes by the length of day variations, i.e. the sidereal 13.66 days Earth's rotation variations, in contrast with tidal biweekly 14.76 days variations (full and new Moon), which for hundred years of investigation give negative results. Earthquake triggering governed by sidereal variations caused by variable Moon's declination accelerates and decelerates the Earth's rotation. Profound Schuster's test proved that earthquakes are triggered both in Earth's deceleration and acceleration. For this investigation the most prominent earthquakes from 2010-2011 were used from Mid-Atlantic Ridge, Southeast Indian Ridge, Sumatra and Andaman Sea, Chile trench, Haiti and Honshu region including important older earthquakes of Sumatra 26 December 2004 and Denali Fault 3 November 2002. Dominant number of earthquake occurring in extremes of length of day variations initiated the calculation of forces acting in these time intervals. Calculated forces of tidal force acting on Earth's flattening and the westward drift are strong enough to trigger earthquakes and the movement of plates follows from GPS performed immediately after earthquakes on continents and from increased number of earthquakes of the side of the mid-ocean ridge belonging to the moving plate. Generally the Northern Hemisphere moves quicker westward than the Southern one. Earthquakes are repeated in 19 yr Metonic cycle. Repetitions caused by tidal force acting on Earth's fattening are exact in date. Repetitions caused by westward drift are delayed for several months.

  19. Earthquakes at North Atlantic passive margins

    SciTech Connect

    Gregersen, S. ); Basham, P.W. )

    1989-01-01

    The main focus of this volume is the earthquakes that occur at and near the continental margins on both sides of the North Atlantic. The book, which contains the proceedings of the NATO workshop on Causes and Effects of Earthquakes at Passive Margins and in Areas of Postglacial Rebound on Both Sides of the North Atlantic, draws together the fields of geophysics, geology and geodesy to address the stress and strain in the Earth's crust. The resulting earthquakes produced on ancient geological fault zones and the associated seismic hazards these pose to man are also addressed. Postglacial rebound in North America and Fennoscandia is a minor source of earthquakes today, during the interglacial period, but evidence is presented to suggest that the ice sheets suppressed earthquake strain while they were in place, and released this strain as a pulse of significant earthquakes after the ice melted about 9000 years ago.

  20. Twitter earthquake detection: Earthquake monitoring in a social world

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Earle, Paul; Bowden, Daniel C.; Guy, Michelle R.

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public text messages, can augment USGS earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. Rapid detection and qualitative assessment of shaking events are possible because people begin sending public Twitter messages (tweets) with in tens of seconds after feeling shaking. Here we present and evaluate an earthquake detection procedure that relies solely on Twitter data. A tweet-frequency time series constructed from tweets containing the word "earthquake" clearly shows large peaks correlated with the origin times of widely felt events. To identify possible earthquakes, we use a short-term-average, long-term-average algorithm. When tuned to a moderate sensitivity, the detector finds 48 globally-distributed earthquakes with only two false triggers in five months of data. The number of detections is small compared to the 5,175 earthquakes in the USGS global earthquake catalog for the same five-month time period, and no accurate location or magnitude can be assigned based on tweet data alone. However, Twitter earthquake detections are not without merit. The detections are generally caused by widely felt events that are of more immediate interest than those with no human impact. The detections are also fast; about 75% occur within two minutes of the origin time. This is considerably faster than seismographic detections in poorly instrumented regions of the world. The tweets triggering the detections also provided very short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking.

  1. Intraplate triggered earthquakes: Observations and interpretation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J.G.

    2003-01-01

    We present evidence that at least two of the three 1811-1812 New Madrid, central United States, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake triggered earthquakes at regional distances. In addition to previously published evidence for triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region in 1812, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and near Charleston, South Carolina. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky within seconds of the passage of surface waves from the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Notwithstanding the uncertainty associated with analysis of historical accounts, there is evidence that at least three out of the four known Mw 7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes at distances beyond the typically assumed aftershock zone of 1-2 mainshock fault lengths. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low-strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low-strain-rate environment, permanent, nonelastic deformation might play a more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than do faults in high-strain-rate regions. Our results further suggest that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults are at a critical stress state in only some areas. Remotely triggered earthquakes may thus serve as beacons that identify regions of

  2. Laboratory Generated M -6 Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLaskey, Gregory C.; Kilgore, Brian D.; Lockner, David A.; Beeler, Nicholas M.

    2014-10-01

    We consider whether mm-scale earthquake-like seismic events generated in laboratory experiments are consistent with our understanding of the physics of larger earthquakes. This work focuses on a population of 48 very small shocks that are foreshocks and aftershocks of stick-slip events occurring on a 2.0 m by 0.4 m simulated strike-slip fault cut through a large granite sample. Unlike the larger stick-slip events that rupture the entirety of the simulated fault, the small foreshocks and aftershocks are contained events whose properties are controlled by the rigidity of the surrounding granite blocks rather than characteristics of the experimental apparatus. The large size of the experimental apparatus, high fidelity sensors, rigorous treatment of wave propagation effects, and in situ system calibration separates this study from traditional acoustic emission analyses and allows these sources to be studied with as much rigor as larger natural earthquakes. The tiny events have short (3-6 μs) rise times and are well modeled by simple double couple focal mechanisms that are consistent with left-lateral slip occurring on a mm-scale patch of the precut fault surface. The repeatability of the experiments indicates that they are the result of frictional processes on the simulated fault surface rather than grain crushing or fracture of fresh rock. Our waveform analysis shows no significant differences (other than size) between the M -7 to M -5.5 earthquakes reported here and larger natural earthquakes. Their source characteristics such as stress drop (1-10 MPa) appear to be entirely consistent with earthquake scaling laws derived for larger earthquakes.

  3. Identified EM Earthquake Precursors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Kenneth, II; Saxton, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    Many attempts have been made to determine a sound forecasting method regarding earthquakes and warn the public in turn. Presently, the animal kingdom leads the precursor list alluding to a transmission related source. By applying the animal-based model to an electromagnetic (EM) wave model, various hypotheses were formed, but the most interesting one required the use of a magnetometer with a differing design and geometry. To date, numerous, high-end magnetometers have been in use in close proximity to fault zones for potential earthquake forecasting; however, something is still amiss. The problem still resides with what exactly is forecastable and the investigating direction of EM. After a number of custom rock experiments, two hypotheses were formed which could answer the EM wave model. The first hypothesis concerned a sufficient and continuous electron movement either by surface or penetrative flow, and the second regarded a novel approach to radio transmission. Electron flow along fracture surfaces was determined to be inadequate in creating strong EM fields, because rock has a very high electrical resistance making it a high quality insulator. Penetrative flow could not be corroborated as well, because it was discovered that rock was absorbing and confining electrons to a very thin skin depth. Radio wave transmission and detection worked with every single test administered. This hypothesis was reviewed for propagating, long-wave generation with sufficient amplitude, and the capability of penetrating solid rock. Additionally, fracture spaces, either air or ion-filled, can facilitate this concept from great depths and allow for surficial detection. A few propagating precursor signals have been detected in the field occurring with associated phases using custom-built loop antennae. Field testing was conducted in Southern California from 2006-2011, and outside the NE Texas town of Timpson in February, 2013. The antennae have mobility and observations were noted for

  4. Earthquake Facts

    MedlinePlus

    ... plate boundaries such as the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the North American plate. One of ... are frequent, for example, is around the massive Pacific Plate commonly referred to as the Pacific Ring ...

  5. Why so few? Landslides triggered by the 2002 Denali earthquake, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorum, Tolga; Korup, Oliver; van Westen, Cees J.; van der Meijde, Mark; Xu, Chong; van der Meer, Freek D.

    2014-07-01

    The 2002 Mw 7.9 Denali Fault earthquake, Alaska, provides an unparalleled opportunity to investigate in quantitative detail the regional hillslope mass-wasting response to strong seismic shaking in glacierized terrain. We present the first detailed inventory of ∼1580 coseismic slope failures, out of which some 20% occurred above large valley glaciers, based on mapping from multi-temporal remote sensing data. We find that the Denali earthquake produced at least one order of magnitude fewer landslides in a much narrower corridor along the fault ruptures than empirical predictions for an M ∼8 earthquake would suggest, despite the availability of sufficiently steep and dissected mountainous topography prone to frequent slope failure. In order to explore potential controls on the reduced extent of regional coseismic landsliding we compare our data with inventories that we compiled for two recent earthquakes in periglacial and formerly glaciated terrain, i.e. at Yushu, Tibet (Mw 6.9, 2010), and Aysén Fjord, Chile (2007 Mw 6.2). Fault movement during these events was, similarly to that of the Denali earthquake, dominated by strike-slip offsets along near-vertical faults. Our comparison returns very similar coseismic landslide patterns that are consistent with the idea that fault type, geometry, and dynamic rupture process rather than widespread glacier cover were among the first-order controls on regional hillslope erosional response in these earthquakes. We conclude that estimating the amount of coseismic hillslope sediment input to the sediment cascade from earthquake magnitude alone remains highly problematic, particularly if glacierized terrain is involved.

  6. Naturally occurring chemical carcinogens

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Natural products are chemicals found in nature which have unique pharmacological effects. Humans are exposed to many of these bioactive naturally occurring chemicals via the air breathed, the water drunk and the food eaten. Exposure also occurs in clinical settings. Naturally occurring chemicals ...

  7. Earthquake swarms reveal submarine magma unrest induced by distant mega-earthquakes: Andaman Sea region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Špičák, Aleš; Vaněk, Jiří

    2016-02-01

    Little is known about earthquake-triggered magma intrusions or eruptions of submarine volcanoes. The analysis of teleseismic earthquake occurrence performed in this study offers a tool to address such enigmatic and inaccessible processes. In the past ten years, the Andaman Sea region repeatedly became a site of shallow earthquake swarms that followed distant mega-earthquakes by days to weeks. The MW 9.1 December 26, 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake was followed by two earthquake swarms about 600 km northward in the Andaman Sea region, delayed by 30 and 35 days, respectively. Earthquakes of one of these seismic episodes, the extensive January 2005 earthquake swarm, migrated laterally at a rate of about 0.25 km per hour during the swarm evolution. The strong Indian Ocean MW 8.6 and 8.2 April 11, 2012 earthquake doublet west of Northern Sumatra was followed by an earthquake swarm approximately 800 km northward in the Andaman Sea region, delayed by 13 days. All the three swarms that followed the 2004 and 2012 mega-earthquakes occurred beneath distinct seamounts and seafloor ridges. Based on the observations of migration of earthquakes during the swarm and swarm occurrence beneath distinct highs at the seafloor, we conclude that these earthquake swarms probably resulted as a consequence of magma unrest induced by static and/or dynamic stress changes following the distant mega-earthquakes. Repeated occurrence of such a phenomenon suggests that the arc magma reservoirs beneath the Andaman Sea have recently reached some form of criticality and are vulnerable to even small stress changes. The Andaman seafloor could thus become a site of submarine volcanic eruptions in near future and deserves close attention of Earth scientists.

  8. Recommendations on frequently encountered relief requests

    SciTech Connect

    Hartley, R.S.; Ransom, C.B.

    1992-01-01

    This paper is based on the review of a large database of requests for relief from enservice testing (1ST) requirements for pumps and valves. From the review, the paper identifies areas where enhancements to either the relief request process or the applicable test codes can improve IST of pumps and valves. Certain types of requests occur frequently. The paper examines some frequent requests and considers possible changes to the requirements to determine if the frequent requests can be eliminated. Recommended changes and their bases will be discussed. IST of safety-related pumps and valves at commercial nuclear power plants is done according to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (the Code), Section XI. Because of the design and function of some safety systems in nuclear plants, performing Code testing of certain pumps and valves is impractical or a hardship without a compensating increase in the level of safety. Deviations from the Code are allowed by law, as reviewed and approved by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), through the relief request process. Because of similarities in plant design and system function, many problems encountered in testing components are similar from plant to plant. Likewise, there are often common problems associated with test methods or equipment. Therefore, many relief requests received by the NRC from various plants are similar. Identifying and addressing the root causes for these common requests will greatly improve IST.

  9. Recommendations on frequently encountered relief requests

    SciTech Connect

    Hartley, R.S.; Ransom, C.B.

    1992-09-01

    This paper is based on the review of a large database of requests for relief from enservice testing (1ST) requirements for pumps and valves. From the review, the paper identifies areas where enhancements to either the relief request process or the applicable test codes can improve IST of pumps and valves. Certain types of requests occur frequently. The paper examines some frequent requests and considers possible changes to the requirements to determine if the frequent requests can be eliminated. Recommended changes and their bases will be discussed. IST of safety-related pumps and valves at commercial nuclear power plants is done according to the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code (the Code), Section XI. Because of the design and function of some safety systems in nuclear plants, performing Code testing of certain pumps and valves is impractical or a hardship without a compensating increase in the level of safety. Deviations from the Code are allowed by law, as reviewed and approved by the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), through the relief request process. Because of similarities in plant design and system function, many problems encountered in testing components are similar from plant to plant. Likewise, there are often common problems associated with test methods or equipment. Therefore, many relief requests received by the NRC from various plants are similar. Identifying and addressing the root causes for these common requests will greatly improve IST.

  10. Observed Weather Satellite Thermal IR Responses Prior to Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bryant, N. A.; Zobrist, A. L.; Logan, L. L.; Freund, F.; Nishenko, S.

    2002-12-01

    A number of observers claim to have seen thermal anomalies prior to earthquakes, but subsequent analysis by others have failed to produce similar findings. It was the purpose of this study to determine if thermal anomalies could be found in association with known earthquakes by systematically co-registering weather satellite images at the sub-pixel level and then determining if statistically significant responses had occurred prior to an event. Earthquakes associated with plate movement (strike-slip and thrust faulting), rather than volcanism, were to be considered. A new set of automatic co-registration procedures were developed for this task to accommodate all properties particular to weather satellite observations taken at night. Spacecraft and sensor ephemeris and the horizontal displacement due to elevation were all factored in, and final adjustment for minor satellite deviations (related to roll, pitch, and yaw) were made by using image-to-image tiepoint correlations. Reliance upon visual clues in an image (frequently the subject of debate in the past) is not required. The technique relies on the general condition where ground cools after sunset. The technique applies best to the use of the geosynchronous weather satellites (GOES, Meteosat, and GMS), where images are taken every thirty minutes. Use of the geosynchronous satellites also reduces the potential for miscalculation of trends due to weather front movement or local cloud/fog formation. The polar orbiting satellites have better resolution (1km vs 5km) and better signal-to-noise, but only acquire images twice during an evening, thereby making trend analysis difficult. Case studies investigated to date include the Hector Mine California and Ikrit Turkey earthquakes of 1999, and the Bhuj India quake of 2001. The result of the new analytic procedures has been the observance of apparent heating trends close to epicenters in satellite data acquisitions a few hours prior to an earthquake. When observations

  11. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone

    SciTech Connect

    Heaton, T.H.; Hartzell, S.H.

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M/sub w/) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M/sub w/ 8) or a giant earthquake (M/sub w/ 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M/sub w/ less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M/sub w/ up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. 35 references, 6 figures.

  12. Earthquake hazards on the cascadia subduction zone.

    PubMed

    Heaton, T H; Hartzell, S H

    1987-04-10

    Large subduction earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone pose a potential seismic hazard. Very young oceanic lithosphere (10 million years old) is being subducted beneath North America at a rate of approximately 4 centimeters per year. The Cascadia subduction zone shares many characteristics with subduction zones in southern Chile, southwestern Japan, and Colombia, where comparably young oceanic lithosphere is also subducting. Very large subduction earthquakes, ranging in energy magnitude (M(w)) between 8 and 9.5, have occurred along these other subduction zones. If the Cascadia subduction zone is also storing elastic energy, a sequence of several great earthquakes (M(w) 8) or a giant earthquake (M(w) 9) would be necessary to fill this 1200-kilometer gap. The nature of strong ground motions recorded during subduction earthquakes of M(w) less than 8.2 is discussed. Strong ground motions from even larger earthquakes (M(w) up to 9.5) are estimated by simple simulations. If large subduction earthquakes occur in the Pacific Northwest, relatively strong shaking can be expected over a large region. Such earthquakes may also be accompanied by large local tsunamis. PMID:17789780

  13. Meeting focuses on catastrophic Asian earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Harsh K.

    The International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior (IAS-PEI) and the Asian Seismological Commission met August 1-3, 1996, in Tangshan, China. Twenty years ago, Tangshan was destroyed by the century's worst earthquake, which killed an estimated 243,000 people.It was the first meeting of the Asian Seismological Commission (ASC), a group formed in 1995 by the IASPEI umbrella, to improve understanding of geological processes in Asia and to mitigate earthquake disasters. Because of its widespread seismic activity, the vast, populated territory of Asia has more catastrophic earthquakes than other regions of the world (see Figure 1). During the period from 1892 to 1992, 50 percent of the world's major earthquakes (magnitude greater than 8) occurred in Asia and the Southern Pacific region. Economic losses of more than $100 billion from the most recent major Asian earthquake that occurred in Kobe, Japan, in early 1995, make Kobe the most expensive earthquake in the world. In September 1993, the Latur earthquake in the stable shield region of southern India claimed 10,000 lives, and although of only 6.1 magnitude, was the deadliest stable continental region earthquake.

  14. Earthquake history, 1769-1989

    SciTech Connect

    Ellsworth, W.L.

    1990-01-01

    Motion between the North American and Pacific plates at the latitude of the San Andreas fault produces a broad zone of large-magnitude earthquake activity extending more than 500 km into the continental interior. The San Andreas fault system defines the western limits of plate interaction and dominates the overall pattern of seismic strain release. Few of the M {ge} 6 earthquakes that have occurred in the past 2 centuries were located on the San Andreas fault proper, an observation emphasizing the importance of secondary faults for both seismic-hazard assessment and tectonic processes.

  15. THE PERIOD OF LIFE AT WHICH INFECTION FROM TUBERCULOSIS OCCURS MOST FREQUENTLY

    PubMed Central

    Knopf, S. Adolphus

    1916-01-01

    This paper not only contains Doctor Knopf's own valuable conclusions upon the subject presented, but it is also a compendium of the opinions which Doctor Knopf has secured from a number of other eminent physicians. PMID:18009535

  16. Development of Tools for the Rapid Assessment of Landslide Potential in Areas Exposed to Intense Storms, Earthquakes, and Other Triggering Mechanisms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Highland, Lynn

    2014-05-01

    Landslides frequently occur in connection with other types of hazardous phenomena such as earthquake or volcanic activity and intense rainstorms. Strong shaking, for example, often triggers extensive landslides in mountainous areas, which can then complicate response and compound socio-economic impacts over shaking losses alone. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is exploring different ways to add secondary hazards to its Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which has been developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following significant global earthquakes. The PAGER team found that about 22 percent of earthquakes with fatalities have deaths due to secondary causes, and the percentage of economic losses they incur has not been widely studied, but is probably significant. The current approach for rapid assessment and reporting of the potential and distribution of secondary earthquake-induced landslides involves empirical models that consider ground acceleration, slope, and rock-strength. A complementary situational awareness tool being developed is a region-specific landslide database for the U.S. The latter will be able to define, in a narrative form, the landslide types (debris flows, rock avalanches, shallow versus deep) that generally occur in each area, along with the type of soils, geology and meteorological effects that could have a bearing on soil saturation, and thus susceptibility. When a seismic event occurs in the U.S. and the PAGER system generates web-based earthquake information, these landslide narratives will simultaneously be made available, which will help in the assessment of the nature of landslides in that particular region. This landslide profile database could also be applied to landslide events that are not triggered by earthquake shaking, in conjunction with National Weather Service Alerts and other landslide/debris-flow alerting systems. Currently, prototypes are being developed for both

  17. Field reconnaissance of the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Apostolakis, Georgios; Qu, Bing; Ecemis, Nurhan; Dogruel, Seda

    2007-12-01

    As part of the 2007 Tri-Center Field Mission to Japan, a reconnaissance team comprised of fourteen graduate students and three faculty members from three U.S. earthquake engineering research centers, namely, Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER), Mid-America Earthquake Center (MAE), and Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), undertook a reconnaissance visit to the affected area shortly after the 2007 Niigata-Chuetsu Oki earthquake. This mission provided an opportunity to review the nature of the earthquake damage that occurred, as well as to assess the significance of the damage from an educational perspective. This paper reports on the seismological characteristics of the earthquake, preliminary findings of geotechnical and structural damage, and the causes of the observed failures or collapses. In addition, economic and socio-economic considerations and experiences to enhance earthquake resilience are presented.

  18. Tilt precursors before earthquakes on the San Andreas fault, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Mortensen, C.E.

    1974-01-01

    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 10-7 radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (>10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake.

  19. Tilt Precursors before Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault, California.

    PubMed

    Johnston, M J; Mortensen, C E

    1974-12-13

    An array of 14 biaxial shallow-borehole tiltmeters (at 1O(-7) radian sensitivity) has been installed along 85 kilometers of the San Andreas fault during the past year. Earthquake-related changes in tilt have been simultaneously observed on up to four independent instruments. At earthquake distances greater than 10 earthquake source dimensions, there are few clear indications of tilt change. For the four instruments with the longest records (> 10 months), 26 earthquakes have occurred since July 1973 with at least one instrument closer than 10 source dimensions and 8 earthquakes with more than one instrument within that distance. Precursors in tilt direction have been observed before more than 10 earthquakes or groups of earthquakes, and no similar effect has yet been seen without the occurrence of an earthquake. PMID:17843056

  20. Earthquake occurrence and effects.

    PubMed

    Adams, R D

    1990-01-01

    Although earthquakes are mainly concentrated in zones close to boundaries of tectonic plates of the Earth's lithosphere, infrequent events away from the main seismic regions can cause major disasters. The major cause of damage and injury following earthquakes is elastic vibration, rather than fault displacement. This vibration at a particular site will depend not only on the size and distance of the earthquake but also on the local soil conditions. Earthquake prediction is not yet generally fruitful in avoiding earthquake disasters, but much useful planning to reduce earthquake effects can be done by studying the general earthquake hazard in an area, and taking some simple precautions. PMID:2347628

  1. Earthquake and Tsunami booklet based on two Indonesia earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayashi, Y.; Aci, M.

    2014-12-01

    Many destructive earthquakes occurred during the last decade in Indonesia. These experiences are very important precepts for the world people who live in earthquake and tsunami countries. We are collecting the testimonies of tsunami survivors to clarify successful evacuation process and to make clear the characteristic physical behaviors of tsunami near coast. We research 2 tsunami events, 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and 2010 Mentawai slow earthquake tsunami. Many video and photographs were taken by people at some places in 2004 Indian ocean tsunami disaster; nevertheless these were few restricted points. We didn't know the tsunami behavior in another place. In this study, we tried to collect extensive information about tsunami behavior not only in many places but also wide time range after the strong shake. In Mentawai case, the earthquake occurred in night, so there are no impressive photos. To collect detail information about evacuation process from tsunamis, we contrived the interview method. This method contains making pictures of tsunami experience from the scene of victims' stories. In 2004 Aceh case, all survivors didn't know tsunami phenomena. Because there were no big earthquakes with tsunami for one hundred years in Sumatra region, public people had no knowledge about tsunami. This situation was highly improved in 2010 Mentawai case. TV programs and NGO or governmental public education programs about tsunami evacuation are widespread in Indonesia. Many people know about fundamental knowledge of earthquake and tsunami disasters. We made drill book based on victim's stories and painted impressive scene of 2 events. We used the drill book in disaster education event in school committee of west Java. About 80 % students and teachers evaluated that the contents of the drill book are useful for correct understanding.

  2. The 8 February 1843 Lesser Antilles Earthquake: A "Missing" Great Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.

    2012-12-01

    The seismic potential of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone and the adjacent Puerto Rico trench remains a matter of debate. The central arc of the Lesser Antilles subduction zone is currently accumulating elastic strain at a rate slower than the plate motion (Manaker et al., 2008), and a recent study concludes that no major subduction zone earthquake has occurred along the Puerto Rico trench during the 500-year historical record (tenBrink et al., 2012). The 8 February 1843 earthquake is the largest historical event on the Lesser Antilles arc. A recent study estimated a preferred magnitude of 8.5 based on near-field macroseismic effects (Feuillet et al., 2011), but the generally accepted value has been 7.5-8. A consideration of the regional and far-field macroseismic effects reveals a felt distribution comparable to those of recent great (Mw ≥ 9.0) earthquakes. Credible archival accounts provide compelling evidence that the earthquake was felt throughout a wide region of the eastern United States, as far north as New York City. The event was also felt at three locations in South America, and in Bermuda. A modest tsunami is described by two witnesses; two other accounts describe uplift of a stone wharf in Antigua, and along the northern coast of Guadaloupe . The distribution and character of intensities in the near field of any earthquake will reflect the complexity of the source; the pattern of high- and low-frequency radiation from the 2011 Tohoku, Japan, earthquake, demonstrates that these patterns can be complex for great earthquakes. For the 1843 earthquake, the far-field intensity distribution provides a stronger constraint on magnitude. The observations support the inference of a high (M≥8.5) magnitude, and significant moment release towards or possibly around the northern corner of the Lesser Antilles Arc. Possible modern analogs for such an event can be identified, including the Mw8.6 2005 Nias earthquake and the 11 April 2012 Mw8.6 strike

  3. Earthquake Strong Ground Motion Scenario at the 2008 Olympic Games Sites, Beijing, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, L.; Rohrbach, E. A.; Chen, Q.; Chen, Y.

    2006-12-01

    Historic earthquake record indicates mediate to strong earthquakes have been frequently hit greater Beijing metropolitan area where is going to host the 2008 summer Olympic Games. For the readiness preparation of emergency response to the earthquake shaking for a mega event in a mega city like Beijing in summer 2008, this paper tries to construct the strong ground motion scenario at a number of gymnasium sites for the 2008 Olympic Games. During the last 500 years (the Ming and Qing Dynasties) in which the historic earthquake record are thorough and complete, there are at least 12 earthquake events with the maximum intensity of VI or greater occurred within 100 km radius centered at the Tiananmen Square, the center of Beijing City. Numerical simulation of the seismic wave propagation and surface strong ground motion is carried out by the pseudospectral time domain methods with viscoelastic material properties. To improve the modeling efficiency and accuracy, a multi-scale approach is adapted: the seismic wave propagation originated from an earthquake rupture source is first simulated by a model with larger physical domain with coarser grids. Then the wavefield at a given plane is taken as the source input for the small-scale, fine grid model for the strong ground motion study at the sites. The earthquake source rupture scenario is based on two particular historic earthquake events: One is the Great 1679 Sanhe-Pinggu Earthquake (M~8, Maximum Intensity XI at the epicenter and Intensity VIII in city center)) whose epicenter is about 60 km ENE of the city center. The other one is the 1730 Haidian Earthquake (M~6, Maximum Intensity IX at the epicenter and Intensity VIII in city center) with the epicentral distance less than 20 km away from the city center in the NW Haidian District. The exist of the thick Tertiary-Quaternary sediments (maximum thickness ~ 2 km) in Beijing area plays a critical role on estimating the surface ground motion at the Olympic Games sites, which

  4. Estimating Casualties for Large Earthquakes Worldwide Using an Empirical Approach

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Hearne, Mike

    2009-01-01

    We developed an empirical country- and region-specific earthquake vulnerability model to be used as a candidate for post-earthquake fatality estimation by the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. The earthquake fatality rate is based on past fatal earthquakes (earthquakes causing one or more deaths) in individual countries where at least four fatal earthquakes occurred during the catalog period (since 1973). Because only a few dozen countries have experienced four or more fatal earthquakes since 1973, we propose a new global regionalization scheme based on idealization of countries that are expected to have similar susceptibility to future earthquake losses given the existing building stock, its vulnerability, and other socioeconomic characteristics. The fatality estimates obtained using an empirical country- or region-specific model will be used along with other selected engineering risk-based loss models for generation of automated earthquake alerts. These alerts could potentially benefit the rapid-earthquake-response agencies and governments for better response to reduce earthquake fatalities. Fatality estimates are also useful to stimulate earthquake preparedness planning and disaster mitigation. The proposed model has several advantages as compared with other candidate methods, and the country- or region-specific fatality rates can be readily updated when new data become available.

  5. Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elst, Nicholas J.; Page, Morgan T.; Weiser, Deborah A.; Goebel, Thomas H. W.; Hosseini, S. Mehran

    2016-06-01

    A major question for the hazard posed by injection-induced seismicity is how large induced earthquakes can be. Are their maximum magnitudes determined by injection parameters or by tectonics? Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter distribution for tectonic earthquakes, assuming no upper magnitude bound. The data pass three specific tests: (1) the largest observed earthquake at each site scales with the log of the total number of induced earthquakes, (2) the order of occurrence of the largest event is random within the induced sequence, and (3) the injected volume controls the total number of earthquakes rather than the total seismic moment. All three tests point to an injection control on earthquake nucleation but a tectonic control on earthquake magnitude. Given that the largest observed earthquakes are exactly as large as expected from the sampling statistics, we should not conclude that these are the largest earthquakes possible. Instead, the results imply that induced earthquake magnitudes should be treated with the same maximum magnitude bound that is currently used to treat seismic hazard from tectonic earthquakes.

  6. Earthquake catalog for estimation of maximum earthquake magnitude, Central and Eastern United States: Part B, historical earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wheeler, Russell L.

    2014-01-01

    Computation of probabilistic earthquake hazard requires an estimate of Mmax: the moment magnitude of the largest earthquake that is thought to be possible within a specified geographic region. The region specified in this report is the Central and Eastern United States and adjacent Canada. Parts A and B of this report describe the construction of a global catalog of moderate to large earthquakes that occurred worldwide in tectonic analogs of the Central and Eastern United States. Examination of histograms of the magnitudes of these earthquakes allows estimation of Central and Eastern United States Mmax. The catalog and Mmax estimates derived from it are used in the 2014 edition of the U.S. Geological Survey national seismic-hazard maps. Part A deals with prehistoric earthquakes, and this part deals with historical events.

  7. Earthquake history of the United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Coffman, Jerry L., (Edited By); Von Hake, Carl A.; Stover, Carl W.

    1982-01-01

    This publication is a history of the prominent earthquakes in the United States from historical times through 1970. It supersedes all previous editions with the same or similar titles (see page ii) and, in addition to updating earthquake listings through 1970, contains several additions and corrections to previous issues. It also brings together under a common cover earthquake data previously listed in two separate reports: Earthquake History of the United States, Part I, Stronger Earthquakes of the United States (Exclusive of California and Western Nevada) and Earthquake History of the United States, Part II, Stronger Earthquakes of California and Western Nevada. Another addition to this publication is the inclusion of a section describing earthquakes in the Puerto Rico region. For the purpose of listing and describing earthquakes, the United States has been divided into nine regions: (1) Northeastern Region, which includes New England and New York activity and observations of the principal earthquakes of eastern Canada; (2) Eastern Region, including the central Appalachian seismic region activity and the area near Charleston, S.C.; (3) Central Region, which consists of the area between the region just described and the Rocky Mountains; (4) Western Mountain Region, which includes all remaining states except those on the Pacific coast; (5) Washington and Oregon; (6) Alaska; (7) Hawaii; (8) Puerto Rico; and (9) California and Western Nevada. This arrangement has been made chiefly with reference to the natural seismic divisions. It also is a convenient arrangement because there are only three states where there is an important division of earthquake activity: In Tennessee, there are quite distinct areas at opposite ends of the state that fall into different regions. Only central and eastern Nevada are included in the Western Mountain Region, as the activity of the western part is closely associated with that of California. Some earthquake activity has occurred in the

  8. Major earthquake shakes northern Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Mohi

    A magnitude 7.6 earthquake that shook the western Himalayas on 8 October killed at least 23,000 in Pakistan and 1,400 in India, injured more than 50,000 people, and left more 2.5 million people homeless across the Kashmir region. The official death toll could exceed 30,000, placing this among most deadly earthquakes to have ever occurred on the Indian subcontinent.Scientists warn that, given the lack of development and poor construction in the area, future earthquakes in more densely populated areas could be devastating. David Simpson, president of the Incorporated Research Institutes for Seismology, said the 8 October quake ‘was a terrible disaster, but not to the level of what could happen in the future. This is yet again another warning message of things to come.”

  9. Material contrast does not predict earthquake rupture propagation direction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Harris, R.A.; Day, S.M.

    2005-01-01

    Earthquakes often occur on faults that juxtapose different rocks. The result is rupture behavior that differs from that of an earthquake occurring on a fault in a homogeneous material. Previous 2D numerical simulations have studied simple cases of earthquake rupture propagation where there is a material contrast across a fault and have come to two different conclusions: 1) earthquake rupture propagation direction can be predicted from the material contrast, and 2) earthquake rupture propagation direction cannot be predicted from the material contrast. In this paper we provide observational evidence from 70 years of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, and new 3D numerical simulations. Both the observations and the numerical simulations demonstrate that earthquake rupture propagation direction is unlikely to be predictable on the basis of a material contrast. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  10. Co-Occurring Disorders

    MedlinePlus

    ... Care of You Top Ten Freshman Year Issues Alcohol, Substance Abuse and Depression Winter Break Survival Tips for College Students Implementing ... supporters and consumers in the mental health field. Alcohol and Drug Abuse, Addiction and Co-occurring Disorders: Co-occurring ... In Crisis? Call ...

  11. Izmit, Turkey 1999 Earthquake Interferogram

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2001-01-01

    This image is an interferogram that was created using pairs of images taken by Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR). The images, acquired at two different times, have been combined to measure surface deformation or changes that may have occurred during the time between data acquisition. The images were collected by the European Space Agency's Remote Sensing satellite (ERS-2) on 13 August 1999 and 17 September 1999 and were combined to produce these image maps of the apparent surface deformation, or changes, during and after the 17 August 1999 Izmit, Turkey earthquake. This magnitude 7.6 earthquake was the largest in 60 years in Turkey and caused extensive damage and loss of life. Each of the color contours of the interferogram represents 28 mm (1.1 inches) of motion towards the satellite, or about 70 mm (2.8 inches) of horizontal motion. White areas are outside the SAR image or water of seas and lakes. The North Anatolian Fault that broke during the Izmit earthquake moved more than 2.5 meters (8.1 feet) to produce the pattern measured by the interferogram. Thin red lines show the locations of fault breaks mapped on the surface. The SAR interferogram shows that the deformation and fault slip extended west of the surface faults, underneath the Gulf of Izmit. Thick black lines mark the fault rupture inferred from the SAR data. Scientists are using the SAR interferometry along with other data collected on the ground to estimate the pattern of slip that occurred during the Izmit earthquake. This then used to improve computer models that predict how this deformation transferred stress to other faults and to the continuation of the North Anatolian Fault, which extends to the west past the large city of Istanbul. These models show that the Izmit earthquake further increased the already high probability of a major earthquake near Istanbul.

  12. Fault failure with moderate earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnston, M.J.S.; Linde, A.T.; Gladwin, M.T.; Borcherdt, R.D.

    1987-01-01

    High resolution strain and tilt recordings were made in the near-field of, and prior to, the May 1983 Coalinga earthquake (ML = 6.7, ?? = 51 km), the August 4, 1985, Kettleman Hills earthquake (ML = 5.5, ?? = 34 km), the April 1984 Morgan Hill earthquake (ML = 6.1, ?? = 55 km), the November 1984 Round Valley earthquake (ML = 5.8, ?? = 54 km), the January 14, 1978, Izu, Japan earthquake (ML = 7.0, ?? = 28 km), and several other smaller magnitude earthquakes. These recordings were made with near-surface instruments (resolution 10-8), with borehole dilatometers (resolution 10-10) and a 3-component borehole strainmeter (resolution 10-9). While observed coseismic offsets are generally in good agreement with expectations from elastic dislocation theory, and while post-seismic deformation continued, in some cases, with a moment comparable to that of the main shock, preseismic strain or tilt perturbations from hours to seconds (or less) before the main shock are not apparent above the present resolution. Precursory slip for these events, if any occurred, must have had a moment less than a few percent of that of the main event. To the extent that these records reflect general fault behavior, the strong constraint on the size and amount of slip triggering major rupture makes prediction of the onset times and final magnitudes of the rupture zones a difficult task unless the instruments are fortuitously installed near the rupture initiation point. These data are best explained by an inhomogeneous failure model for which various areas of the fault plane have either different stress-slip constitutive laws or spatially varying constitutive parameters. Other work on seismic waveform analysis and synthetic waveforms indicates that the rupturing process is inhomogeneous and controlled by points of higher strength. These models indicate that rupture initiation occurs at smaller regions of higher strength which, when broken, allow runaway catastrophic failure. ?? 1987.

  13. Pore-fluid migration and the timing of the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hughes, K.L.H.; Masterlark, Timothy; Mooney, W.D.

    2011-01-01

    Two great earthquakes have occurred recently along the Sunda Trench, the 2004 M9.2 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake and the 2005 M8.7 Nias earthquake. These earthquakes ruptured over 1600 km of adjacent crust within 3 mo of each other. We quantitatively present poroelastic deformation analyses suggesting that postseismic fluid flow and recovery induced by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake. Simple back-slip simulations indicate that the megapascal (MPa)-scale pore-pressure recovery is equivalent to 7 yr of interseismic Coulomb stress accumulation near the Nias earthquake hypocenter, implying that pore-pressure recovery of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake advanced the timing of the Nias earthquake by ~7 yr. That is, in the absence of postseismic pore-pressure recovery, we predict that the Nias earthquake would have occurred in 2011 instead of 2005. ?? 2011 Geological Society of America.

  14. Numerical Simulation of Earthquake Generation Cycles before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake in Northeast Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakata, R.; Ariyoshi, K.; Hyodo, M.; Hori, T.

    2014-12-01

    Along the Japan Trench, M7 class earthquakes have occurred in the past. Among them, earthquakes off the coast of Miyagi prefecture have occurred with recurrence intervals of approximately 30-40 years. The M 7.2 earthquake in 2005 is the latest before 2011. On 11 March 2011, the M 9.0 great interplate earthquake occurred off the coast of the Tohoku district (including Miyagi). Currently, it has been passed for more than three years since the M 9.0 earthquake. Post-seismic deformation has continued today, and Off-Miyagi earthquake has not occurred yet. We numerically simulated cycles for occurrences of seismic and aseismic events along the Japan Trench with the 3D geometry of the Pacific plate using the aging law, which is a type of rate- and state-dependent friction law. We evaluated simulation results achieved using different values of frictional parameters with respect to characteristics such as the slip history and crustal deformation before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake. Before the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, two slow slip events (SSEs) were observed on 2008 and 2011. The M=7.3 largest foreshock occurred on March 9 [Ito et al., 2013]. Source areas of the mainshock, the foreshock, and the SSEs are in the updip area of the Off-Miyagi earthquakes and post-seismic slip of the M9 earthquake. By now, we have approximately reproduced some characteristics of observed slips by using several sets of frictional parameter values. In our simulations, M=7.0-7.6 foreshock occurred 0.4~7 days before the mainshock (M=8.6-9.0). And the foreshock occurred within 10 years after the M=7.2-7.3 earthquake at Off-Miyagi. In these models, time interval between the mainshock and the first Off-Miyagi earthquake after the great earthquake tend to be shorter than the average recurrence interval of the past. This tendency was observed at Indonesia. Two M7 class earthquakes occurred before (2002) and after (2008) the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (M9.1). The source regions were at the south end of the

  15. Unusual low-angle normal fault earthquakes after the 2011 Tohoku-oki megathrust earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yagi, Yuji; Okuwaki, Ryo; Enescu, Bogdan; Fukahata, Yukitoshi

    2015-06-01

    A few low-angle normal fault earthquakes at approximately the depth of the plate interface, with a strike nearly parallel to the trench axis, were detected immediately after the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. After that, however, no such normal fault events have been observed until the occurrence of the 2014 M W 6.6 Fukushima-oki earthquake. Here we analyze the teleseismic body waveforms of the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake. We first compare the observed teleseismic body waves of the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake with those of the largest previous low-angle normal fault aftershock ( M W 6.6), which occurred on 12 March 2011, and then estimate the centroid depth and moment tensor solution of the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake. The teleseismic body waves and moment tensor solution of the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake are similar to those of the 2011 normal fault aftershock, which suggests that the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake occurred at a similar depth and had a similar mechanism to that of the 2011 aftershock. We detected five low-angle normal fault aftershocks at approximately the depth of the plate interface, with a strike nearly parallel to the trench axis, and confirmed that all of them except for the 2014 Fukushima-oki earthquake occurred within 17 days after the mainshock. The occurrence of these low-angle normal fault events is likely to reflect the reversal of shear stress due to overshooting of slip during the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We speculate that a fast but heterogeneous recovery of stress state at the plate interface may explain why these events preferentially occurred immediately after the megathrust event, while one of them occurred with a significant delay. In order to better understand the characteristics of stress state in the crust, we have to carefully observe the ongoing seismic activity around this region.

  16. Parallelization of the Coupled Earthquake Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Block, Gary; Li, P. Peggy; Song, Yuhe T.

    2007-01-01

    This Web-based tsunami simulation system allows users to remotely run a model on JPL s supercomputers for a given undersea earthquake. At the time of this reporting, predicting tsunamis on the Internet has never happened before. This new code directly couples the earthquake model and the ocean model on parallel computers and improves simulation speed. Seismometers can only detect information from earthquakes; they cannot detect whether or not a tsunami may occur as a result of the earthquake. When earthquake-tsunami models are coupled with the improved computational speed of modern, high-performance computers and constrained by remotely sensed data, they are able to provide early warnings for those coastal regions at risk. The software is capable of testing NASA s satellite observations of tsunamis. It has been successfully tested for several historical tsunamis, has passed all alpha and beta testing, and is well documented for users.

  17. Oklahoma's recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal.

    PubMed

    Walsh, F Rall; Zoback, Mark D

    2015-06-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from "produced" water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

  18. [Osmolality of frequently consumed beverages].

    PubMed

    Dini, Elizabeth; De Abreu, Jorge; López, Emeris

    2004-12-01

    The objective of this work was to determine the osmolality of beverages frequently consumed by children and adolescents due to the scarce information available in our country. The samples were grouped as follows: milks; refreshments; beverages based on fruits, vegetables, cereals, and tubers; sport drinks; energizing drinks; oral rehydrating solutions; reconstituted drinks and infusions. A vapor pressure digital osmometer was used, five samples of each beverage from different lots were analyzed. Four osmolality determinations were made on each sample and the average of such values was calculated. When the variation coefficient of the osmolality measurements of the five samples was higher than 10%, five additional samples were analyzed. As many samples as possible were used with breast milk in the time period of the study. Osmolality averages, standard deviation, and the osmolality confidence intervals (95% reliability) were calculated. The osmolality (mmol/kg) of breast milk and that of cow milk were between 273 and 389; refreshments, white, black and flavored colas, and malts ranged between 479-811; and soda and light drinks: 44-62; fresh fruit and commercial drinks (coconut, peach, apple, orange, pear, pineapple, grape, plum, tamarind): 257-1152 and light juices: 274; sports beverages: 367; energizing drinks: 740; drinks based on vegetables and cereals: 213-516; oral rehydrating solutions: 236-397; reconstituted drinks: 145; infusions: 25. Beverages with adequate osmolality levels for children were: milks, light refreshments, soda, fresh and light juices, oral rehydrating, soy, and reconstituted drinks and infusions. PMID:15602899

  19. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake.

    PubMed

    Hayes, Gavin P; Herman, Matthew W; Barnhart, William D; Furlong, Kevin P; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul S; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-08-21

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile, which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ∼8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March-April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence. PMID:25119028

  20. Continuing megathrust earthquake potential in Chile after the 2014 Iquique earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hayes, Gavin P.; Herman, Matthew W.; Barnhart, William D.; Furlong, Kevin P.; Riquelme, Sebástian; Benz, Harley M.; Bergman, Eric; Barrientos, Sergio; Earle, Paul; Samsonov, Sergey

    2014-01-01

    The seismic gap theory identifies regions of elevated hazard based on a lack of recent seismicity in comparison with other portions of a fault. It has successfully explained past earthquakes (see, for example, ref. 2) and is useful for qualitatively describing where large earthquakes might occur. A large earthquake had been expected in the subduction zone adjacent to northern Chile which had not ruptured in a megathrust earthquake since a M ~8.8 event in 1877. On 1 April 2014 a M 8.2 earthquake occurred within this seismic gap. Here we present an assessment of the seismotectonics of the March–April 2014 Iquique sequence, including analyses of earthquake relocations, moment tensors, finite fault models, moment deficit calculations and cumulative Coulomb stress transfer. This ensemble of information allows us to place the sequence within the context of regional seismicity and to identify areas of remaining and/or elevated hazard. Our results constrain the size and spatial extent of rupture, and indicate that this was not the earthquake that had been anticipated. Significant sections of the northern Chile subduction zone have not ruptured in almost 150 years, so it is likely that future megathrust earthquakes will occur to the south and potentially to the north of the 2014 Iquique sequence.

  1. Slow earthquakes coincident with episodic tremors and slow slip events.

    PubMed

    Ito, Yoshihiro; Obara, Kazushige; Shiomi, Katsuhiko; Sekine, Shutaro; Hirose, Hitoshi

    2007-01-26

    We report on the very-low-frequency earthquakes occurring in the transition zone of the subducting plate interface along the Nankai subduction zone in southwest Japan. Seismic waves generated by very-low-frequency earthquakes with seismic moment magnitudes of 3.1 to 3.5 predominantly show a long period of about 20 seconds. The seismicity of very-low-frequency earthquakes accompanies and migrates with the activity of deep low-frequency tremors and slow slip events. The coincidence of these three phenomena improves the detection and characterization of slow earthquakes, which are thought to increase the stress on updip megathrust earthquake rupture zones. PMID:17138867

  2. Issues on the Japanese Earthquake Hazard Evaluation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashimoto, M.; Fukushima, Y.; Sagiya, T.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake forced the policy of counter-measurements to earthquake disasters, including earthquake hazard evaluations, to be changed in Japan. Before the March 11, Japanese earthquake hazard evaluation was based on the history of earthquakes that repeatedly occurs and the characteristic earthquake model. The source region of an earthquake was identified and its occurrence history was revealed. Then the conditional probability was estimated using the renewal model. However, the Japanese authorities changed the policy after the megathrust earthquake in 2011 such that the largest earthquake in a specific seismic zone should be assumed on the basis of available scientific knowledge. According to this policy, three important reports were issued during these two years. First, the Central Disaster Management Council issued a new estimate of damages by a hypothetical Mw9 earthquake along the Nankai trough during 2011 and 2012. The model predicts a 34 m high tsunami on the southern Shikoku coast and intensity 6 or higher on the JMA scale in most area of Southwest Japan as the maximum. Next, the Earthquake Research Council revised the long-term earthquake hazard evaluation of earthquakes along the Nankai trough in May 2013, which discarded the characteristic earthquake model and put much emphasis on the diversity of earthquakes. The so-called 'Tokai' earthquake was negated in this evaluation. Finally, another report by the CDMC concluded that, with the current knowledge, it is hard to predict the occurrence of large earthquakes along the Nankai trough using the present techniques, based on the diversity of earthquake phenomena. These reports created sensations throughout the country and local governments are struggling to prepare counter-measurements. These reports commented on large uncertainty in their evaluation near their ends, but are these messages transmitted properly to the public? Earthquake scientists, including authors, are involved in

  3. Surface displacements in the 1906 san francisco and 1989 loma prieta earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Segall, P; Lisowski, M

    1990-11-30

    The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes. PMID:17829210

  4. Surface displacements in the 1906 San Francisco and 1989 Loma Prieta earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Segall, P.; Lisowski, M.

    1990-01-01

    The horizontal displacements accompanying the 1906 San Francisco earthquake and the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake are computed from geodetic survey measurements. The 1906 earthquake displacement field is entirely consistent with right-lateral strike slip on the San Andreas fault. In contrast, the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake exhibited subequal components of strike slip and reverse faulting. This result, together with other seismic and geologic data, may indicate that the two earthquakes occurred on two different fault planes.

  5. Frog Swarms: Earthquake Precursors or False Alarms?

    PubMed Central

    Grant, Rachel A.; Conlan, Hilary

    2013-01-01

    Simple Summary Media reports linking unusual animal behaviour with earthquakes can potentially create false alarms and unnecessary anxiety among people that live in earthquake risk zones. Recently large frog swarms in China and elsewhere have been reported as earthquake precursors in the media. By examining international media reports of frog swarms since 1850 in comparison to earthquake data, it was concluded that frog swarms are naturally occurring dispersal behaviour of juveniles and are not associated with earthquakes. However, the media in seismic risk areas may be more likely to report frog swarms, and more likely to disseminate reports on frog swarms after earthquakes have occurred, leading to an apparent link between frog swarms and earthquakes. Abstract In short-term earthquake risk forecasting, the avoidance of false alarms is of utmost importance to preclude the possibility of unnecessary panic among populations in seismic hazard areas. Unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes has been reported for millennia but has rarely been scientifically documented. Recently large migrations or unusual behaviour of amphibians have been linked to large earthquakes, and media reports of large frog and toad migrations in areas of high seismic risk such as Greece and China have led to fears of a subsequent large earthquake. However, at certain times of year large migrations are part of the normal behavioural repertoire of amphibians. News reports of “frog swarms” from 1850 to the present day were examined for evidence that this behaviour is a precursor to large earthquakes. It was found that only two of 28 reported frog swarms preceded large earthquakes (Sichuan province, China in 2008 and 2010). All of the reported mass migrations of amphibians occurred in late spring, summer and autumn and appeared to relate to small juvenile anurans (frogs and toads). It was concluded that most reported “frog swarms” are actually normal behaviour, probably caused by

  6. The difference lunar-solar zenith distance and the tidal triggering of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, P.

    2009-12-01

    The Earth is a member of the solar system. The gravitational force origin from the Sun and the Moon, produce a periodical displacement on the Earth. Such phenomenon has attracted a broad interesting both from the astronomers and the geophysicists. Since one century, the scientists have been wondered that the seismic activities may relate with the tight beating of tides whose amplitude is around 1kPa. However, the conclusions are controversial after analysis the correlations between the occurrence of global earthquakes and the tides. In contrast, some other works have indicated the tidal triggering of earthquakes from regional seismic and volcanic activities. In fact, such phenomenon is more frequently observed from the oceanic seismic events. Until recently, the correlation between the dip-slip earthquakes and tides has been reported, but few evidences were found from the strike-slip types. In this study, the correlations between the earthquake occurrence and the tides were investigated using 26,129 global earthquakes selected from the Harvard CMT catalog. Two days time series of cubic tidal stress was computed before and after each earthquake. It included the solid earth tides as well as the ocean loading parts. A tidal phase corresponding to the cubic tidal stress was assigned to each event. Then the distributions of tidal phase were statistically examined by the Schuster's test. Furthermore, I defined a difference zenith angle between the Moon's and the Sun's (γ=Zm-Zs) which was calculated at the epicenter of each event in the mean time a random distributed γ was also generated. The complete catalog was separated into two groups according to real computed and random generated γ: γa (|γ|<=30°) and γt (γ>30° or γ<-30°). Then the hypothesis of tidal triggering of earthquakes was separately tested by the Schuster's test for each group of events (Figure). (1) No correlations were found for the global earthquakes. The evidence of tidal triggering of

  7. Frequent Hemodialysis Fistula Infectious Complications

    PubMed Central

    Lok, Charmaine E.; Sontrop, Jessica M.; Faratro, Rose; Chan, Christopher T.; Zimmerman, Deborah Lynn

    2014-01-01

    Background Few studies have examined if infectious arteriovenous access complications vary with the cannulation technique and whether this is modified by dialysis frequency. We compared the infection rate between fistulas cannulated using buttonhole versus stepladder techniques for patients treated with short daily (SDH) or nocturnal hemodialysis at home (NHD). We also compared patients receiving conventional intermittent hemodialysis (CIHD) using stepladder cannulation. Methods Data were prospectively collected from 631 patients dialyzed with a fistula from 2001 to 2010 (Toronto and Ottawa, Canada). We compared the person-time incidence rate of bacteremia and local fistula infections using the exact binomial test. Results Forty-six (7.3%) patients received SDH (≥5 sessions/week, 2-4 h/session), 128 (20.3%) NHD (≥4 sessions/week, ≥5 h/session) and 457 (72%) CIHD (3 sessions/week, ≤4 h/session). Fifty percent of SDH and 72% of NHD patients used the buttonhole technique. There were 39 buttonhole-related bacteremias (rate: 0.196/1,000 fistula days) and at least 2 local buttonhole site infections. Staphylococcus aureus accounted for 85% of the bacteremias. There were 5 (13%) infection-related hospitalizations and 3 (10%) serious metastatic infections, including fistula loss. In comparison, there was 1 possible fistula-related infection in CIHD during follow-up (rate: 0.002/1,000 fistula days). Conclusions The rate of buttonhole-related infections was high among patients on frequent hemodialysis and more than 50 times greater than that among patients on CIHD with the stepladder technique. Most bacteremias were due to S. aureus – with serious consequences. The risks and benefits of buttonhole cannulation require individual consideration with careful monitoring, prophylaxis and management. PMID:25473405

  8. Predicting the endpoints of earthquake ruptures.

    PubMed

    Wesnousky, Steven G

    2006-11-16

    The active fault traces on which earthquakes occur are generally not continuous, and are commonly composed of segments that are separated by discontinuities that appear as steps in map-view. Stress concentrations resulting from slip at such discontinuities may slow or stop rupture propagation and hence play a controlling role in limiting the length of earthquake rupture. Here I examine the mapped surface rupture traces of 22 historical strike-slip earthquakes with rupture lengths ranging between 10 and 420 km. I show that about two-thirds of the endpoints of strike-slip earthquake ruptures are associated with fault steps or the termini of active fault traces, and that there exists a limiting dimension of fault step (3-4 km) above which earthquake ruptures do not propagate and below which rupture propagation ceases only about 40 per cent of the time. The results are of practical importance to seismic hazard analysis where effort is spent attempting to place limits on the probable length of future earthquakes on mapped active faults. Physical insight to the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process is further gained with the observation that the limiting dimension appears to be largely independent of the earthquake rupture length. It follows that the magnitude of stress changes and the volume affected by those stress changes at the driving edge of laterally propagating ruptures are largely similar and invariable during the rupture process regardless of the distance an event has propagated or will propagate. PMID:17108963

  9. Napa Earthquake impact on water systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, J.

    2014-12-01

    South Napa earthquake occurred in Napa, California on August 24 at 3am, local time, and the magnitude is 6.0. The earthquake was the largest in SF Bay Area since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake. Economic loss topped $ 1 billion. Wine makers cleaning up and estimated the damage on tourism. Around 15,000 cases of lovely cabernet were pouring into the garden at the Hess Collection. Earthquake potentially raise water pollution risks, could cause water crisis. CA suffered water shortage recent years, and it could be helpful on how to prevent underground/surface water pollution from earthquake. This research gives a clear view on drinking water system in CA, pollution on river systems, as well as estimation on earthquake impact on water supply. The Sacramento-San Joaquin River delta (close to Napa), is the center of the state's water distribution system, delivering fresh water to more than 25 million residents and 3 million acres of farmland. Delta water conveyed through a network of levees is crucial to Southern California. The drought has significantly curtailed water export, and salt water intrusion reduced fresh water outflows. Strong shaking from a nearby earthquake can cause saturated, loose, sandy soils liquefaction, and could potentially damage major delta levee systems near Napa. Napa earthquake is a wake-up call for Southern California. It could potentially damage freshwater supply system.

  10. Catalog of significant historical earthquakes in the Central United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Hopper, M.G.

    2004-01-01

    We use Modified Mercalli intensity assignments to estimate source locations and moment magnitude M for eighteen 19th-century and twenty early- 20th-century earthquakes in the central United States (CUS) for which estimates of M are otherwise not available. We use these estimates, and locations and M estimated elsewhere, to compile a catelog of significant historical earthquakes in the CUS. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes apparently dominated CUS seismicity in the first two decades of the 19th century. M5-6 earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in 1843 and 1878, but none have occurred since 1878. There has been persistent seismic activity in the Illinois Basin in southern Illinois and Indiana, with M > 5.0 earthquakes in 1895, 1909, 1917, 1968, and 1987. Four other M > 5.0 CUS historical earthquakes have occurred: in Kansas in 1867, in Nebraska in 1877, in Oklahoma in 1882, and in Kentucky in 1980.

  11. Loss estimation of Membramo earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Damanik, R.; Sedayo, H.

    2016-05-01

    Papua Tectonics are dominated by the oblique collision of the Pacific plate along the north side of the island. A very high relative plate motions (i.e. 120 mm/year) between the Pacific and Papua-Australian Plates, gives this region a very high earthquake production rate, about twice as much as that of Sumatra, the western margin of Indonesia. Most of the seismicity occurring beneath the island of New Guinea is clustered near the Huon Peninsula, the Mamberamo region, and the Bird's Neck. At 04:41 local time(GMT+9), July 28th 2015, a large earthquake of Mw = 7.0 occurred at West Mamberamo Fault System. The earthquake focal mechanism are dominated by northwest-trending thrust mechanisms. GMPE and ATC vulnerability curve were used to estimate distribution of damage. Mean of estimated losses was caused by this earthquake is IDR78.6 billion. We estimated insurance loss will be only small portion in total general due to deductible.

  12. Non-Double-Couple Earthquakes 2. Observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.; Julian, B.R.

    1998-01-01

    Most studies assume that earthquakes have double-couple (DC) source mechanisms, corresponding to shear motion on planar faults. However, many well-recorded earthquakes have radiation patterns that depart radically from this model, indicating fundamentally different source processes. Seismic waves excited by advective processes, such as landslides and volcanic eruptions, are consistent with net forces rather than DCs. Some volcanic earthquakes also have single-force mechanisms, probably because of advection of magmatic fluids. Other volcanic earthquakes have mechanisms close to compensated linear vector dipoles and may be caused by magmatic intrusions. Shallow earthquakes in volcanic or geothermal areas and mines often have mechanisms with isotropic components, indicating volume changes of either explosive or implosive polarity. Such mechanisms are consistent with failure involving both shear and tensile faulting, which may be facilitated by high-pressure, high-temperature fluids. In mines, tunnels are cavities that may close. Deep-focus earthquakes occur within zones of polymorphic phase transformations in the upper mantle at depths where stick-slip instability cannot occur. Their mechanisms tend to be deviatoric (volume conserving), but non-DC, and their source processes are poorly understood. Automatic global moment tensor services routinely report statistically significant non-DC components for large earthquakes, but detailed reexamination of individual events is required to confirm such results.

  13. A Simplified Approach to Earthquake Risk in Mainland China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Qi-Fu; Mi, Hongliang; Huang, Jing

    2005-06-01

    There are limitations in conventional earthquake loss procedures if attempts are made to apply these to assess the social and economic impacts of recent disastrous earthquakes. This paper addresses the need to develop an applicable model for estimating the significant increases of earthquake loss in mainland China. The casualties of earthquakes were studied first. The casualties of earthquakes are strongly related to earthquake strength, occurrence time (day or night) and the distribution of population in the affected area. Using data on earthquake casualties in mainland China from 1980 to 2000, we suggest a relationship between average losses of life and the magnitude of earthquakes. Combined with information on population density and earthquake occurrence times, we use these data to give a further relationship between the loss of life and factors like population density, intensity and occurrence time of the earthquake. Earthquakes that occurred from 2001 to 2003 were tested for the given relationships. This paper also explores the possibility of using a macroeconomic indicator, here GDP (Gross Domestic Product), to roughly estimate earthquake exposure in situations where no detailed insurance or similar inventories exist, thus bypassing some problems of the conventional method.

  14. Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes - Forecast - Counteraction)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, Elias

    2013-04-01

    Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1)Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2)Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3)The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is

  15. Earthquakes - Volcanoes (Causes - Forecast - Counteraction)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, Elias

    2015-04-01

    Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1) Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2) Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3) The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is

  16. EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES (Causes - Forecast - Counteraction)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, Elias

    2014-05-01

    Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: 1)Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). 2)Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). 3)The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is

  17. Rupture process of the 2015 Mw7.9 Nepal earthquake from the joint inversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, J.; Wang, W.; Zhou, Y.; Yao, Z.

    2015-12-01

    The 25 April 2015 earthquake (Mw7.9) struck Nepal near the middle segment of Himalaya. Large earthquakes occurred around this region frequently in history. The rupture process could help us to investigate the characters of the disaster earthquakes. For this event many kinds of observation data could be used to constrain the rupture process. Data of some 1Hz GPS stations of the China Crustal Movement Observation Network were processed by the software GAMIT and we obtained the waveforms of this earthquake. The waveforms of several 5Hz GPS stations near the epicenter were provided by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) (http://aria-share.jpl.nasa.gov/events/20150425-Nepal_EQ/GPS/). The ALOS-2 satellite, operated by the Japanese Space Agency, collected a useful of L-band InSAR data and Lindsey et al. determined the coseismic displacement of the line-of-sight (http://topex.ucsd.edu/nepal/). We resampled the coseismic displacement of Lindsey et al. to constrain the rupture process. In addition teleseismic broadband body waves, long period surface waves, waveforms of one regional broadband station and one local strong motion station were combined in the joint inversion. The epicenter of United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the mechanism of Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) were applied. The Mw 7.9 earthquake ruptured a thrust fault orienting 293o and dipping 7o to the NE, locating near the middle segment of Himalaya. This earthquake was a unilateral event and the rupture of asperity mainly propagates to the southeast, spanning a depth range from 8 km to 18 km. The inverted slip distribution is dominated by a rectangle shape slip patch with the length of ~120km. The weighted rupture velocity is about 2.1 km/s and the total seismic moment is about 8.6x1020 Nm. The imaged fault slip correlates well with the aftershock distribution.

  18. In search of earthquake-related hydrologic and chemical changes along Hayward Fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    King, C.-Y.; Basler, D.; Presser, T.S.; Evans, William C.; White, L.D.; Minissale, A.

    1994-01-01

    Flow and chemical measurements have been made about once a month, and more frequently when required, since 1976 at two springs in Alum Rock Park in eastern San Jose, California, and since 1980 at two shallow wells in eastern Oakland in search of earthquake-related changes. All sites are on or near the Hayward Fault and are about 55 km apart. Temperature, electric conductivity, and water level or flow rate were measured in situ with portable instruments. Water samples were collected for later chemical and isotopic analyses in the laboratory. The measured flow rate at one of the springs showed a long-term decrease of about 40% since 1987, when a multi-year drought began in California. It also showed several increases that lasted a few days to a few months with amplitudes of 2.4 to 8.6 times the standard deviations above the background rate. Five of these increases were recorded shortly after nearby earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 or larger, and may have resulted from unclogging of the flow path and increase of permeability caused by strong seismic shaking. Two other flow increases were possibly induced by exceptionally heavy rainfalls. The water in both wells showed seasonal temperature and chemical variations, largely in response to rainfall. In 1980 the water also showed some clear chemical changes unrelated to rainfall that lasted a few months; these changes were followed by a magnitude 4 earthquake 37 km away. The chemical composition at one of the wells and at the springs also showed some longer-term variations that were not correlated with rainfall but possibly correlated with the five earthquakes mentioned above. These correlations suggest a common tectonic origin for the earthquakes and the anomalies. The last variation at the affected well occurred abruptly in 1989, shortly before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake 54 km away. ?? 1993.

  19. Intraplate Triggered Earthquakes: Observations and Interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

    2001-12-01

    We present evidence that at least two of the three principal 1811-1812 New Madrid, mainshocks and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake were associated with remotely triggered earthquakes. In addition to previously published results showing that the New Madrid sequence triggered earthquakes in the northern Kentucky/southern Ohio region, we present evidence suggesting that triggered events might have occurred in the Wabash Valley, to the south of the New Madrid Seismic Zone, and possibly near Charleston, South Carolina region as well. We also discuss evidence that earthquakes might have been triggered in northern Kentucky in the immediate wake of the strong ground motions associated with the 23 January 1812 New Madrid mainshock. After the 1886 Charleston earthquake, accounts suggest that triggered events occurred near Moodus, Connecticut, and in southern Indiana. Thus at least three out of the four known M>=7 earthquakes in the central and eastern United States seem to have triggered earthquakes outside their aftershock zones. We explore the possibility that remotely triggered earthquakes might be common in low strain-rate regions. We suggest that in a low strain-rate environment, permanent, non-elastic deformation might play a relatively more important role in stress accumulation than it does in interplate crust. Using a simple model incorporating both elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust might remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than faults in high strain-rate regions. Our results furthermore reveal that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults tend to be at a critical stress state in only some areas. It is not surprising that triggered earthquakes would serve as beacons that identify regions that are approaching a critical stress state. Their

  20. Earthquake and the Catastrophic End of the Late Bronze Age in the Eastern Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nur, A.

    2009-04-01

    The reasons for the catastrophic and wide spread political as well as physical collapse in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean areas that define the end of the Bronze age ca. 1225 BC to 1175 BC remain a major enigma. It has been attributed by historian to attacks by outsiders with the most favored group being the (enigmatic) so-called sea people. Unfortunately there is no real evidence for this. However combined geological, geophysical and archaeological evidence suggests that earthquakes may have played a key role in this extraordinary collapse during the late 13th and early 12th centuries . Based on the instrumentally recorded earthquakes occurring in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region during the 20th century, several events that have clear historical information, and the geography of seismically active faults it is obvious that numerous earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 or greater (enough to destroy modern buildings, let alone those of antiquity) occurred here frequently in the past. Furthermore major earthquakes often occur in this region in groups, known as ‘‘sequences'' or ‘‘storms'', in which one large quake is followed days, months, or a few years later by others elsewhere on the plate boundary fault lines. When a map of the areas in the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean region shaken by 20th century  earthquakes of magnitude 6·5 and greater and with an intensity of VII or greater is overlaid on Robert Drews' map of sites destroyed in these same regions during the so-called ‘‘Catastrophe'' near the end of the Late Bronze Age, it is readily apparent that virtually all of these LBA sites lie within the affected (‘‘high-shaking'') areas. This would suggest that a major ‘‘earthquake storm'' may have occurred in the Late Bronze Age Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean during the years 1225-1175 . This ‘‘storm'' may have interacted with societal, political and economic forces at work in these areas c. 1200  and

  1. Precursory seismicity associated with frequent, large ice avalanches on Iliamna Volcano, Alaska, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caplan-Auerbach, Jacqueline; Huggel, C.

    2007-01-01

    Since 1994, at least six major (volume>106 m3) ice and rock avalanches have occurred on Iliamna volcano, Alaska, USA. Each of the avalanches was preceded by up to 2 hours of seismicity believed to represent the initial stages of failure. Each seismic sequence begins with a series of repeating earthquakes thought to represent slip on an ice-rock interface, or between layers of ice. This stage is followed by a prolonged period of continuous ground-shaking that reflects constant slip accommodated by deformation at the glacier base. Finally the glacier fails in a large avalanche. Some of the events appear to have entrained large amounts of rock, while others comprise mostly snow and ice. Several avalanches initiated from the same source region, suggesting that this part of the volcano is particularly susceptible to failure, possibly due to the presence of nearby fumaroles. Although thermal conditions at the time of failure are not well constrained, it is likely that geothermal energy causes melting at the glacier base, promoting slip and culminating in failure. The frequent nature and predictable failure sequence of Iliamna avalanches makes the volcano an excellent laboratory for the study of ice avalanches. The prolonged nature of the seismic signal suggests that warning may one day be given for similar events occurring in populated regions.

  2. A Statistical Analysis of Lunisolar-Earthquake Connections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rüegg, Christian Michael-André

    2012-11-01

    Despite over a century of study, the relationship between lunar cycles and earthquakes remains controversial and difficult to quantitatively investigate. Perhaps as a consequence, major earthquakes around the globe are frequently followed by "prediction claim", using lunar cycles, that generate media furore and pressure scientists to provide resolute answers. The 2010-2011 Canterbury earthquakes in New Zealand were no exception; significant media attention was given to lunar derived earthquake predictions by non-scientists, even though the predictions were merely "opinions" and were not based on any statistically robust temporal or causal relationships. This thesis provides a framework for studying lunisolar earthquake temporal relationships by developing replicable statistical methodology based on peer reviewed literature. Notable in the methodology is a high accuracy ephemeris, called ECLPSE, designed specifically by the author for use on earthquake catalogs and a model for performing phase angle analysis.

  3. The orientation of disaster donations: differences in the global response to five major earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Wei, Jiuchang; Marinova, Dora

    2016-07-01

    This study analyses the influence of gift giving, geographical location, political regime, and trade openness on disaster donation decisions, using five severe earthquakes that occurred between 2008 and 2012 as case studies. The results show that global disaster donation is not dominated by only philanthropy or trade interests, and that the determinants of donation decisions vary with the scale of the natural disaster and the characteristics of the disaster-affected countries. While gift giving exists in the case of middle-size earthquakes, political regimes play a very important part in the overall donation process. Countries with higher perceived corruption may donate more frequently, but those that are more democratic may be more generous in their donations. Generosity based on geographical proximity to the calamity is significant in the decision-making process for most natural disasters, yet it may have a negative effect on donations in Latin America and the Caribbean. PMID:27295360

  4. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-04-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogs with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behavior of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the "Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1" model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 by 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalog from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a "General Earthquake Model" (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalog of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalog of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation principle that

  5. Earthquake rate and magnitude distributions of great earthquakes for use in global forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.; Jackson, David D.

    2016-07-01

    We have obtained new results in the statistical analysis of global earthquake catalogues with special attention to the largest earthquakes, and we examined the statistical behaviour of earthquake rate variations. These results can serve as an input for updating our recent earthquake forecast, known as the `Global Earthquake Activity Rate 1' model (GEAR1), which is based on past earthquakes and geodetic strain rates. The GEAR1 forecast is expressed as the rate density of all earthquakes above magnitude 5.8 within 70 km of sea level everywhere on earth at 0.1 × 0.1 degree resolution, and it is currently being tested by the Collaboratory for Study of Earthquake Predictability. The seismic component of the present model is based on a smoothed version of the Global Centroid Moment Tensor (GCMT) catalogue from 1977 through 2013. The tectonic component is based on the Global Strain Rate Map, a `General Earthquake Model' (GEM) product. The forecast was optimized to fit the GCMT data from 2005 through 2012, but it also fit well the earthquake locations from 1918 to 1976 reported in the International Seismological Centre-Global Earthquake Model (ISC-GEM) global catalogue of instrumental and pre-instrumental magnitude determinations. We have improved the recent forecast by optimizing the treatment of larger magnitudes and including a longer duration (1918-2011) ISC-GEM catalogue of large earthquakes to estimate smoothed seismicity. We revised our estimates of upper magnitude limits, described as corner magnitudes, based on the massive earthquakes since 2004 and the seismic moment conservation principle. The new corner magnitude estimates are somewhat larger than but consistent with our previous estimates. For major subduction zones we find the best estimates of corner magnitude to be in the range 8.9 to 9.6 and consistent with a uniform average of 9.35. Statistical estimates tend to grow with time as larger earthquakes occur. However, by using the moment conservation

  6. The Nankai Trough earthquake tsunamis in Korea: numerical studies of the 1707 Hoei earthquake and physics-based scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, SatByul; Saito, Tatsuhiko; Fukuyama, Eiichi; Kang, Tae-Seob

    2016-04-01

    Historical documents in Korea and China report abnormal waves in the sea and rivers close to the date of the 1707 Hoei earthquake, which occurred in the Nankai Trough, off southwestern Japan. This indicates that the tsunami caused by the Hoei earthquake might have reached Korea and China, which suggests a potential hazard in Korea from large earthquakes in the Nankai Trough. We conducted tsunami simulations to study the details of tsunamis in Korea caused by large earthquakes. Our results showed that the Hoei earthquake (Mw 8.8) tsunami reached the Korean Peninsula about 200 min after the earthquake occurred. The maximum tsunami height was ~0.5 m along the Korean coast. The model of the Hoei earthquake predicted a long-lasting tsunami whose highest peak arrived 600 min later after the first arrival near the coastline of Jeju Island. In addition, we conducted tsunami simulations using physics-based scenarios of anticipated earthquakes in the Nankai subduction zone. The maximum tsunami height in the scenarios (Mw 8.5-8.6) was ~0.4 m along the Korean coast. As a simple evaluation of larger possible tsunamis, we increased the amount of stress released by the earthquake by a factor of two and three, resulting in scenarios for Mw 8.8 and 8.9 earthquakes, respectively. The tsunami height increased by 0.1-0.4 m compared to that estimated by the Hoei earthquake.

  7. A characteristic earthquake cycle: Parkfield 1971 to 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turcotte, D. L.; Yoder, M. R.; Rundle, J. B.

    2010-12-01

    The sequence of m≈6 earthquakes that have occurred on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault are often considered the best example of “characteristic earthquakes.” The last two of these earthquakes occurred on 28 June 1966 and 28 September 2004. To use the best quality seismic data, we will consider the period 28 June 1971 to 28 September 2009 as representative of a characteristic earthquake cycle. We study seismicity in the region of aftershocks of the 2004 earthquake. One focus of our studies is the validity of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) hypothesis for earthquakes in this region for the period given above. Fitting the GR relation to all earthquakes during the period gives a=5.5 with b=1.0. Full GR scaling would require a=5.97 with b=1.0. Thus, only 34% of the earthquakes required for full GR scaling actually occurred. Many of the earthquakes are not on the Parkfield segment but on the adjacent small faults that were also associated with aftershocks. We conclude that the “characteristic earthquakes” dominate the seismicity on the Parkfield segment. We also study the mean recurrence times of m>1.5 earthquakes in the aftershock regions. For the five years prior to 28 September 2004, recurrence intervals were nearly stationary, with T =4.5 days. Since the 2004 mainshock, mean interoccurrence intervals have increased systematically, consistent with Omori's law, to a current value of approximately T =4.0 days.

  8. Source processes of the 1949 Olympia, Washington and other Cascadia intraslab earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ichinose, G. A.; Somerville, P. G.; Thio, H.

    2004-12-01

    Cascadia intraslab earthquakes have occurred frequently including in 1949 (M 7), 1965 (M 6.9), and 2001 (Mw 6.8) and the hazard they pose is equal to other seismic sources for time scales relevant to retrofitting (50%PE in 75 yrs). Reexamination of historical earthquakes and analysis of broadband seismograms from new earthquakes improves strong motion prediction more than stochastic scenarios and provides a better understanding in how stress is released in the subducting slab relative to external tectonic forces and local dehydration. Reanalysis of the 1949 Olympia earthquake using digitized seismograms collected by Barker and Langston [1987], Wiest et al. [2004], long-period WWSSN data from College, Alaska, Bogotá, Columbia, and Pasadena, California, has yielded a normal-slip mechanism that fits all the available data with ˜ E-W extensional-axis. This mechanism better resembles those from previous Puget Sound intraslab earthquakes. The earthquake ruptured southward along a plane with 170\\deg strike and 70\\deg dip. The hypocenter depth is 60 km with a total Mo of 1.9\\times1026 dyne-cm (Mw 6.78). We inverted teleseismic body waves to determine the mechanism and rupture pattern in space and time using a time-domain iterative inversion process. We limited the number of unknowns by assuming only 2 subevents and performed a grid search on the remaining variables including hypocenter depth, rupture direction, subevent rise time and rupture velocity. A rise time of 3 s best fits the frequency content of the waveforms but there is no resolution of rupture velocity with this dataset so we assume 3.5 km/s. The total moment is typically lower because of stricter model assumptions and the use of band limited data. The amplitudes from the Pasadena 1-90 s Benioff records indicate a higher Mw ˜ 6.8 when compared to those from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake convolved with a similar response. We show from similar analyses of this and other intraslab earthquakes that they have

  9. Automatic recognition of seismic intensity based on RS and GIS: a case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake of China.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Qiuwen; Zhang, Yan; Yang, Xiaohong; Su, Bin

    2014-01-01

    In recent years, earthquakes have frequently occurred all over the world, which caused huge casualties and economic losses. It is very necessary and urgent to obtain the seismic intensity map timely so as to master the distribution of the disaster and provide supports for quick earthquake relief. Compared with traditional methods of drawing seismic intensity map, which require many investigations in the field of earthquake area or are too dependent on the empirical formulas, spatial information technologies such as Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographical Information System (GIS) can provide fast and economical way to automatically recognize the seismic intensity. With the integrated application of RS and GIS, this paper proposes a RS/GIS-based approach for automatic recognition of seismic intensity, in which RS is used to retrieve and extract the information on damages caused by earthquake, and GIS is applied to manage and display the data of seismic intensity. The case study in Wenchuan Ms8.0 earthquake in China shows that the information on seismic intensity can be automatically extracted from remotely sensed images as quickly as possible after earthquake occurrence, and the Digital Intensity Model (DIM) can be used to visually query and display the distribution of seismic intensity. PMID:24688445

  10. Combined GPS and InSAR models of postseismic deformation from the Northridge Earthquake

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Donnellan, A.; Parker, J. W.; Peltzer, G.

    2002-01-01

    Models of combined Global Positioning System and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar data collected in the region of the Northridge earthquake indicate that significant afterslip on the main fault occurred following the earthquake.

  11. Children and the San Fernando earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Howard, S. J.

    1980-01-01

    Before dawn, on February 9, 1971, a magnitude 6.4 earthquake occurred in the San Fernando Valley of California. On the following day, theSan Fernando Valley Child Guidance Clinic, through radio and newspapers, offered mental health crises services to children frightened by the earthquake. Response to this invitation was immediate and almost overwhelming. During the first 2 weeks, the Clinic's staff counseled hundreds of children who were experiencing various degrees of anxiety. 

  12. Assessing Earthquake Risks in the Pacific Northwest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2014-10-01

    Megaquakes, which are subduction earthquakes with magnitudes of 8 or greater, occur about every 500 years on average along the Cascadia Subduction Zone in the Pacific Northwest. The earthquakes and related tsunamis can cause enormous damage. However, they may not be the most urgent seismic threat in the region, according to John Clague, a professor and expert on natural hazards at Simon Fraser University (SFU) in British Columbia.

  13. Scenarios of tsunamigenic earthquakes generated along the Hellenic subduction zone and impact along the French coastlines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gailler, Audrey; Hébert, Hélène; Schindelé, François

    2016-04-01

    The Hellenic subduction is an active deformation zone characterized by a sustained day-to-day seismicity (magnitude < 4.5) among the strongest in Europe. The last significant earthquake along the Hellenic subduction zone detected and characterized by the French tsunami warning center (CENALT) occurred on 16th April 2015 (Mw = 6.0) along the southeastern coasts of Crete, without any tsunami risk for the French coastlines. Even if great subduction earthquakes (magnitude > 7.5) are less frequent than in Chile or Japan, the Hellenic area experienced several strong events by the past, the biggest being associated with major tsunamis (e.g., in 551, in 1303). The last known sequence dates the end of the 19th beginning of the 20th century with a seismic gap located along the South Peloponnese - West Crete segment. The legendary 365 AD great earthquake (magnitude 8 to 8.5) is assumed to have ruptured along a major inverse fault parallel to the trench in this area, generating a large tsunami observed up to the Adriatic. In this work we investigate the tsunami potential of earthquakes localized along the Hellenic subduction zone, especially the minimum magnitude required to generate a tsunami that would be able to cross from Eastern to Western Mediterranean. The impact along Corsica coastlines is discussed through the modeling of a set of tsunami scenarios (magnitude ranging from 8.0 to 8.5) established from historical events parameters.

  14. Earthquakes: Predicting the unpredictable?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, S.E.

    2005-01-01

    The earthquake prediction pendulum has swung from optimism in the 1970s to rather extreme pessimism in the 1990s. Earlier work revealed evidence of possible earthquake precursors: physical changes in the planet that signal that a large earthquake is on the way. Some respected earthquake scientists argued that earthquakes are likewise fundamentally unpredictable. The fate of the Parkfield prediction experiment appeared to support their arguments: A moderate earthquake had been predicted along a specified segment of the central San Andreas fault within five years of 1988, but had failed to materialize on schedule. At some point, however, the pendulum began to swing back. Reputable scientists began using the "P-word" in not only polite company, but also at meetings and even in print. If the optimism regarding earthquake prediction can be attributed to any single cause, it might be scientists' burgeoning understanding of the earthquake cycle.

  15. Estimating earthquake potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Page, R.A.

    1980-01-01

    The hazards to life and property from earthquakes can be minimized in three ways. First, structures can be designed and built to resist the effects of earthquakes. Second, the location of structures and human activities can be chosen to avoid or to limit the use of areas known to be subject to serious earthquake hazards. Third, preparations for an earthquake in response to a prediction or warning can reduce the loss of life and damage to property as well as promote a rapid recovery from the disaster. The success of the first two strategies, earthquake engineering and land use planning, depends on being able to reliably estimate the earthquake potential. The key considerations in defining the potential of a region are the location, size, and character of future earthquakes and frequency of their occurrence. Both historic seismicity of the region and the geologic record are considered in evaluating earthquake potential. 

  16. Earthquakes: hydrogeochemical precursors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ingebritsen, Steven E.; Manga, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Earthquake prediction is a long-sought goal. Changes in groundwater chemistry before earthquakes in Iceland highlight a potential hydrogeochemical precursor, but such signals must be evaluated in the context of long-term, multiparametric data sets.

  17. Speeding earthquake disaster relief

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mortensen, Carl; Donlin, Carolyn; Page, Robert A.; Ward, Peter

    1995-01-01

    In coping with recent multibillion-dollar earthquake disasters, scientists and emergency managers have found new ways to speed and improve relief efforts. This progress is founded on the rapid availability of earthquake information from seismograph networks.

  18. A Decade of Giant Earthquakes - What does it mean?

    SciTech Connect

    Wallace, Terry C. Jr.

    2012-07-16

    On December 26, 2004 the largest earthquake since 1964 occurred near Ache, Indonesia. The magnitude 9.2 earthquake and subsequent tsunami killed a quarter of million people; it also marked the being of a period of extraordinary seismicity. Since the Ache earthquake there have been 16 magnitude 8 earthquakes globally, including 2 this last April. For the 100 years previous to 2004 there was an average of 1 magnitude 8 earthquake every 2.2 years; since 2004 there has been 2 per year. Since magnitude 8 earthquakes dominate global seismic energy release, this period of seismicity has seismologist rethinking what they understand about plate tectonics and the connectivity between giant earthquakes. This talk will explore this remarkable period of time and its possible implications.

  19. Anomalous Schumann resonance observed in China, possibly associated with Honshu, Japan Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ouyang, X. Y.; Zhang, X. M.; Shen, X. H.; Miao, Y. Q.

    2012-04-01

    Schumann resonance (hereafter SR) occurs in the cavity between the Earth and the ionosphere, and it is originated by the global lightning activities [1]. Some recent publications showed that anomalous SR phenomena may occur before major earthquakes [2-4]. Considering good prospects for the application of SR in Earthquake monitoring, we have established four observatories in Yunnan province, a region with frequent seismicity in the southwest of China. Our instruments can provide three components of magnetic field in 0-30 Hz, including BNS(North-South component), BEW(East-West component) and BV (Vertical component). The sample frequency is 100 Hz. In this research, we use high quality data recorded at Yongsheng observatory (geographic coordinates: 26.7° N, 100.77°E) to analyze SR phenomena to find out anomalous effects possibly related with the Ms9.0 Earthquake (epicenter: 38.297° N, 142.372° E) near the east coast of Honshu, Japan on 11 March 2011. We select the data 15 days before and after the earthquake. SR in BNS and SR in BEWappear different in background characteristics. Frequencies of four SR modes in BNSare generally higher than that in BEW. Amplitude of SR in BNSis strong at around 05:00 LT, 15:00 LT and 23:00 LT of the day, while amplitude of SR in BEW is just intense around 16:00 LT, corresponding to about 08:00 UT. Because American, African and Asian thunderstorm centers play their dominant roles respectively in the intervals of 21:00UT±1h, 15:00UT±1h and 08:00UT±1h [1, 3], we can see that SR in BEWis most sensitive to signals from Asian center and SR in BNS is in good response to three centers. SR in BNS and SR in BEW have presented different features in the aspect of anomalous effects related with earthquakes. BEW component gives us a clear picture of anomalous SR phenomena, which are characterized by increase in amplitude of four SR modes and increase in frequency at first SR mode several days before the earthquake. The amplitude of four SR

  20. A Century of Induced Earthquakes in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.; Page, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. A growing body of evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised the questions, what is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? And how much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? We first review the historical catalog, including assessment of the completeness level of felt earthquakes, and show that seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the 20th century. Furthermore, several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant (Mw > 3.5) earthquakes in Oklahoma during the 20th century were likely induced by wastewater injection and/or enhanced oil recovery operations. We show that there is a statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence between earthquakes and disposal wells permitted during the 1950s. The intensity distributions of the 1952 Mw5.7 El Reno earthquake and the 1956 Mw3.9 Tulsa county earthquake are similar to those from recent induced earthquakes, with significantly lower shaking than predicted given a regional intensity-prediction equation. The rate of tectonic earthquakes is thus inferred to be significantly lower than previously estimated throughout most of the state, but is difficult to estimate given scant incontrovertible evidence for significant tectonic earthquakes during the 20th century. We do find evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt, and conclude that the 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw4.8, occurred in this zone.

  1. Earthquake Prognosis With Applied Microseism.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ahmedov, N.; Nagiyev, A.

    Earthquakes are the most dangerous natural catastrophy in terms of numerous casualties, amount of damages, areal coverage and difficulties associated with a need to provide secure measures. Inability to forecast these events makes the situation worse due to the following circumstances:-their buried focuses are invisible in the subsurface, they occur suddenly as a thunder, and some tens of the seconds later they leave devastated areas and casualties of tens of thousands of people. Currently earthquake forecausting is actually absolutely inefficient. Microseism application is one of the possible ways to forecast earthquakes. These small oscillation of up-going low-ampitude, irregular wawes observed on seismograms are refered to as microseism. Having been different from earhquakes itself, they are continuous, that is, have no origin coordinate on time axis. Their occurence is associated with breakers observed along shorelines, strong wind and hurricane patterns and so on. J.J.Linch has discovered a new tool to monitor hurricane motion trend over the seas with applied microseism recorded at ad hocstations. Similar to these observations it became possible to monitor the formation of the earthquake focuses based on correlation between low-frequency horizontal ahannels'N-S and E-W components. Microseism field and preceding abnormal variations monitoring data derived from "Cherepaha" 3M and 6/12 device enable to draw out some systematic trend in amplitude/frecuency domain. This relationship observed in a certain frequency range made it possible to define the generation of earthquake focuses with regard to the monitoring station. This variation trend was observed while Turkish and Iranian events happened during 1990,1992, and 1997. It is suggested to be useful to verify these effects in other regions to further correlate available data and work out common forecausting criteria.

  2. A New Global Classification of Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costain, J. K.; Bollinger, G.

    2010-12-01

    Virtually all naturally-occurring earthquakes fall into one of just two categories: 1) those associated with the dynamics of plate tectonics, or 2) those associated with the elements of the hydrologic cycle ("Hydroseismicity"). Category 1 includes interplate earthquakes triggered by interactions between moving tectonic plates of the Earth. Category 2 includes intraplate and plate-marginal earthquakes triggered in an SOC (self-organized crust) by pore-fluid pressure diffusion associated with rainfall, water-table and reservoir fluctuations, and hurricanes or typhoons. Newly-compiled results from 30 worldwide studies of earthquake-rainfall correlations published over the past 22 years and conducted in both intraplate and plate-marginal environments on five continents provide strong support for Category 2. Many if not most "slow earthquakes" also belong in this category and are a manifestation of pore-fluid pressure diffusion as predicted by Biot's remarkable theory, which describes a slow dilatational wave of pure pore-fluid pressure diffusion in a fluid-saturated porous medium and is characterized by severe attenuation and slow speed (days or months). Liu and others (2009) showed that slow earthquakes in an intraplate setting can be triggered by typhoons. Costain (2008) suggested that the timing of three relatively large intraplate earthquakes in Virginia and West Virginia with respect to hurricanes Camille (1969) and Agnes (1972), together with inferred values of crustal hydraulic diffusivity, was consistent with a causal relationship between the hurricanes and the earthquakes. Thus, recognition of just two categories of naturally-occurring earthquakes allows for a simple global division of seismicity.

  3. Probing failure susceptibilities of earthquake faults using small-quake tidal correlations.

    PubMed

    Brinkman, Braden A W; LeBlanc, Michael; Ben-Zion, Yehuda; Uhl, Jonathan T; Dahmen, Karin A

    2015-01-01

    Mitigating the devastating economic and humanitarian impact of large earthquakes requires signals for forecasting seismic events. Daily tide stresses were previously thought to be insufficient for use as such a signal. Recently, however, they have been found to correlate significantly with small earthquakes, just before large earthquakes occur. Here we present a simple earthquake model to investigate whether correlations between daily tidal stresses and small earthquakes provide information about the likelihood of impending large earthquakes. The model predicts that intervals of significant correlations between small earthquakes and ongoing low-amplitude periodic stresses indicate increased fault susceptibility to large earthquake generation. The results agree with the recent observations of large earthquakes preceded by time periods of significant correlations between smaller events and daily tide stresses. We anticipate that incorporating experimentally determined parameters and fault-specific details into the model may provide new tools for extracting improved probabilities of impending large earthquakes. PMID:25625338

  4. Redefining Earthquakes and the Earthquake Machine

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hubenthal, Michael; Braile, Larry; Taber, John

    2008-01-01

    The Earthquake Machine (EML), a mechanical model of stick-slip fault systems, can increase student engagement and facilitate opportunities to participate in the scientific process. This article introduces the EML model and an activity that challenges ninth-grade students' misconceptions about earthquakes. The activity emphasizes the role of models…

  5. Children's Ideas about Earthquakes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simsek, Canan Lacin

    2007-01-01

    Earthquake, a natural disaster, is among the fundamental problems of many countries. If people know how to protect themselves from earthquake and arrange their life styles in compliance with this, damage they will suffer will reduce to that extent. In particular, a good training regarding earthquake to be received in primary schools is considered…

  6. School Safety and Earthquakes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dwelley, Laura; Tucker, Brian; Fernandez, Jeanette

    1997-01-01

    A recent assessment of earthquake risk to Quito, Ecuador, concluded that many of its public schools are vulnerable to collapse during major earthquakes. A subsequent examination of 60 buildings identified 15 high-risk buildings. These schools were retrofitted to meet standards that would prevent injury even during Quito's largest earthquakes. US…

  7. Real Earthquakes, Real Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schomburg, Aaron

    2003-01-01

    One teacher took her class on a year long earthquake expedition. The goal was to monitor the occurrences of real earthquakes during the year and mark their locations with push pins on a wall-sized world map in the hallway outside the science room. The purpose of the project was to create a detailed picture of the earthquakes that occurred…

  8. Rheological Limitations on Deep Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weidner, D. J.; Raterron, P.; Chen, J.; Li, L.

    2002-05-01

    The occurrence of earthquakes deeper than 50 km requires processes that differ from the friction-mitigated phenomena that control fault slip of shallow events. These earthquakes that extend to depths of about 700 km have been useful in delineating plate tectonic processes and stresses, but remain elusive as to why the stress is released as earthquakes and not dissipated by slow plastic flow. Indeed, our understanding of plate tectonic and fracture processes would not be challenged if these events did not occur at all. While the source of deviatoric stress for these earthquakes results from the dynamics of plate tectonics, the ability to store the stress and catastrophically release the stress in an earthquake is controlled by the properties of the minerals that constitute the subducting slab. Guided by our recent experimental results, we propose that the deep earthquake process is largely controlled by the rheology of the subducted material. The core of the slab for depths shallower than 400 km, at temperatures less than 500,aC, is capable of supporting high levels of shear stress with a mildly temperature dependent strength. This region is not seismogenic as it does not have access to stress instabilities. Above 600,aC, olivine becomes too weak to be seismogenic. Between 500 and 600,aC, olivine strength is highly temperature dependent and the region is ripe for runaway plastic instabilities which give rise to earthquakes. This can account for double seismic zones owing to the distorted temperature profile. If the tectonic stress is insufficient in one of these zones, then there will be only a single seismic plane. Deeper than 400 km even though temperature continues to increase, the properties of the high pressure phases of olivine, wadsleyite and ringwoodite, control the seismicity. Higher temperatures are required of these phases to access the plastic instability process, thus allowing seismicity to increase in this region. Our data for perovskite indicate that

  9. Earthquake location in island arcs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Engdahl, E.R.; Dewey, J.W.; Fujita, K.

    1982-01-01

    A comprehensive data set of selected teleseismic P-wave arrivals and local-network P- and S-wave arrivals from large earthquakes occurring at all depths within a small section of the central Aleutians is used to examine the general problem of earthquake location in island arcs. Reference hypocenters for this special data set are determined for shallow earthquakes from local-network data and for deep earthquakes from combined local and teleseismic data by joint inversion for structure and location. The high-velocity lithospheric slab beneath the central Aleutians may displace hypocenters that are located using spherically symmetric Earth models; the amount of displacement depends on the position of the earthquakes with respect to the slab and on whether local or teleseismic data are used to locate the earthquakes. Hypocenters for trench and intermediate-depth events appear to be minimally biased by the effects of slab structure on rays to teleseismic stations. However, locations of intermediate-depth events based on only local data are systematically displaced southwards, the magnitude of the displacement being proportional to depth. Shallow-focus events along the main thrust zone, although well located using only local-network data, are severely shifted northwards and deeper, with displacements as large as 50 km, by slab effects on teleseismic travel times. Hypocenters determined by a method that utilizes seismic ray tracing through a three-dimensional velocity model of the subduction zone, derived by thermal modeling, are compared to results obtained by the method of joint hypocenter determination (JHD) that formally assumes a laterally homogeneous velocity model over the source region and treats all raypath anomalies as constant station corrections to the travel-time curve. The ray-tracing method has the theoretical advantage that it accounts for variations in travel-time anomalies within a group of events distributed over a sizable region of a dipping, high

  10. "Naturally occurring asbestos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cagnard, F.; Lahondère, D.; Blein, O.; Lahfid, A.; Wille, G.

    2012-04-01

    The term asbestos refers to six silicate minerals from amphibole and serpentine groups. By definition, it consists in bundles of thin and flexible long fibers, with high-tensile strength, and chemical and heat resistance. In contrast to asbestos found within commercial products and mining, the specific term ''naturally occurring asbestos'' (NOA) refers to asbestiform minerals occurring within rocks or soils that can be released by human activities or weathering processes. The fact that the exposure to asbestos is related to lung pathologies is now widely demonstrated (e.g. asbestosis, mesothelioma and lung cancer). However, if health risks associated with exposure to NOA exist, they are not yet well documented. The crystallization of natural asbestos occurs in specific Mg-rich lithologies associated with peculiar structural and metamorphic conditions. By recognizing and combining such specific geologic criteria, the presence or the absence of asbestos in bedrock terrains can be reasonably predicted and maps of NOA hazard can be drawn. We present here new results of geological mapping and petrological study concerning the evaluation of the NOA hazard in the Alps and Corsica, in France. The three folds approach consists in (1) a determination of lithologies with potential NOA from a bibliographic compilation and extraction of target zones from a geological geodatabase (2) a geological mapping of the target zones followed by a petrological characterization of sampled asbestiform minerals in the laboratory (optical microscopy, TEM, SEM, and Raman spectroscopy technics), and (3) the drawing of the final map of NOA hazard, at regional-scale. Occurrence criteria can be retained as follows: 1. NOA are abundant in the internal zones of the Alps and Corsica, especially within ophiolitic complexes. Natural asbestos are mostly concentrated within ultramafic rocks but can also occur within basic lithologies such as Mg-metagabbros, metabasalts and meta-pillow-lavas, 2. Asbestos

  11. Operational earthquake forecasting can enhance earthquake preparedness

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jordan, T.H.; Marzocchi, W.; Michael, A.J.; Gerstenberger, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    We cannot yet predict large earthquakes in the short term with much reliability and skill, but the strong clustering exhibited in seismic sequences tells us that earthquake probabilities are not constant in time; they generally rise and fall over periods of days to years in correlation with nearby seismic activity. Operational earthquake forecasting (OEF) is the dissemination of authoritative information about these time‐dependent probabilities to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. The goal of OEF is to inform the decisions that people and organizations must continually make to mitigate seismic risk and prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes on time scales from days to decades. To fulfill this role, OEF must provide a complete description of the seismic hazard—ground‐motion exceedance probabilities as well as short‐term rupture probabilities—in concert with the long‐term forecasts of probabilistic seismic‐hazard analysis (PSHA).

  12. Seismic databases and earthquake catalogue of the Caucasus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godoladze, Tea; Javakhishvili, Zurab; Tvaradze, Nino; Tumanova, Nino; Jorjiashvili, Nato; Gok, Rengen

    2016-04-01

    The Caucasus has a documented historical catalog stretching back to the beginning of the Christian era. Most of the largest historical earthquakes prior to the 19th century are assumed to have occurred on active faults of the Greater Caucasus. Important earthquakes include the Samtskhe earthquake of 1283, Ms~7.0, Io=9; Lechkhumi-Svaneti earthquake of 1350, Ms~7.0, Io=9; and the Alaverdi(earthquake of 1742, Ms~6.8, Io=9. Two significant historical earthquakes that may have occurred within the Javakheti plateau in the Lesser Caucasus are the Tmogvi earthquake of 1088, Ms~6.5, Io=9 and the Akhalkalaki earthquake of 1899, Ms~6.3, Io =8-9. Large earthquakes that occurred in the Caucasus within the period of instrumental observation are: Gori 1920; Tabatskuri 1940; Chkhalta 1963; 1991 Ms=7.0 Racha earthquake, the largest event ever recorded in the region; the 1992 M=6.5 Barisakho earthquake; Ms=6.9 Spitak, Armenia earthquake (100 km south of Tbilisi), which killed over 50,000 people in Armenia. Recently, permanent broadband stations have been deployed across the region as part of various national networks (Georgia (~25 stations), Azerbaijan (~35 stations), Armenia (~14 stations)). The data from the last 10 years of observation provides an opportunity to perform modern, fundamental scientific investigations. A catalog of all instrumentally recorded earthquakes has been compiled by the IES (Institute of Earth Sciences, Ilia State University). The catalog consists of more then 80,000 events. Together with our colleagues from Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey the database for the Caucasus seismic events was compiled. We tried to improve locations of the events and calculate Moment magnitudes for the events more than magnitude 4 estimate in order to obtain unified magnitude catalogue of the region. The results will serve as the input for the Seismic hazard assessment for the region.

  13. Frog Swarms: Earthquake Precursors or False Alarms?

    PubMed

    Grant, Rachel A; Conlan, Hilary

    2013-01-01

    In short-term earthquake risk forecasting, the avoidance of false alarms is of utmost importance to preclude the possibility of unnecessary panic among populations in seismic hazard areas. Unusual animal behaviour prior to earthquakes has been reported for millennia but has rarely been scientifically documented. Recently large migrations or unusual behaviour of amphibians have been linked to large earthquakes, and media reports of large frog and toad migrations in areas of high seismic risk such as Greece and China have led to fears of a subsequent large earthquake. However, at certain times of year large migrations are part of the normal behavioural repertoire of amphibians. News reports of "frog swarms" from 1850 to the present day were examined for evidence that this behaviour is a precursor to large earthquakes. It was found that only two of 28 reported frog swarms preceded large earthquakes (Sichuan province, China in 2008 and 2010). All of the reported mass migrations of amphibians occurred in late spring, summer and autumn and appeared to relate to small juvenile anurans (frogs and toads). It was concluded that most reported "frog swarms" are actually normal behaviour, probably caused by juvenile animals migrating away from their breeding pond, after a fruitful reproductive season. As amphibian populations undergo large fluctuations in numbers from year to year, this phenomenon will not occur on a yearly basis but will depend on successful reproduction, which is related to numerous climatic and geophysical factors. Hence, most large swarms of amphibians, particularly those involving very small frogs and occurring in late spring or summer, are not unusual and should not be considered earthquake precursors. In addition, it is likely that reports of several mass migration of small toads prior to the Great Sichuan Earthquake in 2008 were not linked to the subsequent M = 7.9 event (some occurred at a great distance from the epicentre), and were probably co

  14. Sichuan Earthquake in China

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    The Sichuan earthquake in China occurred on May 12, 2008, along faults within the mountains, but near and almost parallel the mountain front, northwest of the city of Chengdu. This major quake caused immediate and severe damage to many villages and cities in the area. Aftershocks pose a continuing danger, but another continuing hazard is the widespread occurrence of landslides that have formed new natural dams and consequently new lakes. These lakes are submerging roads and flooding previously developed lands. But an even greater concern is the possible rapid release of water as the lakes eventually overflow the new dams. The dams are generally composed of disintegrated rock debris that may easily erode, leading to greater release of water, which may then cause faster erosion and an even greater release of water. This possible 'positive feedback' between increasing erosion and increasing water release could result in catastrophic debris flows and/or flooding. The danger is well known to the Chinese earthquake response teams, which have been building spillways over some of the new natural dams.

    This ASTER image, acquired on June 1, 2008, shows two of the new large landslide dams and lakes upstream from the town of Chi-Kua-Kan at 32o12'N latitude and 104o50'E longitude. Vegetation is green, water is blue, and soil is grayish brown in this enhanced color view. New landslides appear bright off-white. The northern (top) lake is upstream from the southern lake. Close inspection shows a series of much smaller lakes in an elongated 'S' pattern along the original stream path. Note especially the large landslides that created the dams. Some other landslides in this area, such as the large one in the northeast corner of the image, occur only on the mountain slopes, so do not block streams, and do not form lakes.

  15. The effects of earthquake measurement concepts and magnitude anchoring on individuals' perceptions of earthquake risk

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celsi, R.; Wolfinbarger, M.; Wald, D.

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this research is to explore earthquake risk perceptions in California. Specifically, we examine the risk beliefs, feelings, and experiences of lay, professional, and expert individuals to explore how risk is perceived and how risk perceptions are formed relative to earthquakes. Our results indicate that individuals tend to perceptually underestimate the degree that earthquake (EQ) events may affect them. This occurs in large part because individuals' personal felt experience of EQ events are generally overestimated relative to experienced magnitudes. An important finding is that individuals engage in a process of "cognitive anchoring" of their felt EQ experience towards the reported earthquake magnitude size. The anchoring effect is moderated by the degree that individuals comprehend EQ magnitude measurement and EQ attenuation. Overall, the results of this research provide us with a deeper understanding of EQ risk perceptions, especially as they relate to individuals' understanding of EQ measurement and attenuation concepts. ?? 2005, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. The surface latent heat flux anomalies related to major earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jing, Feng; Shen, Xuhui; Kang, Chunli; Xiong, Pan; Hong, Shunying

    2011-12-01

    SLHF (Surface Latent Heat Flux) is an atmospheric parameter, which can describe the heat released by phase changes and dependent on meteorological parameters such as surface temperature, relative humidity, wind speed etc. There is a sharp difference between the ocean surface and the land surface. Recently, many studies related to the SLHF anomalies prior to earthquakes have been developed. It has been shown that the energy exchange enhanced between coastal surface and atmosphere prior to earthquakes can increase the rate of the water-heat exchange, which will lead to an obviously increases in SLHF. In this paper, two earthquakes in 2010 (Haiti earthquake and southwest of Sumatra in Indonesia earthquake) have been analyzed using SLHF data by STD (standard deviation) threshold method. It is shows that the SLHF anomaly may occur in interpolate earthquakes or intraplate earthquakes and coastal earthquakes or island earthquakes. And the SLHF anomalies usually appear 5-6 days prior to an earthquake, then disappear quickly after the event. The process of anomaly evolution to a certain extent reflects a dynamic energy change process about earthquake preparation, that is, weak-strong-weak-disappeared.

  17. Earthquake Observation through Groundwater Monitoring in South Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Piao, J.; Woo, N. C.

    2014-12-01

    According to previous researches, the influence of the some earthquakes can be detected by groundwater monitoring. Even in some countries groundwater monitoring is being used as an important tool to identify earthquake precursors and prediction measures. Thus, in this study we attempt to catch the anomalous changes in groundwater produced by earthquakes occurred in Korea through the National Groundwater Monitoring Network (NGMN). For observing the earthquake impacts on groundwater more effectively, from the National Groundwater Monitoring Network we selected 28 stations located in the five earthquake-prone zones in South Korea. And we searched the responses to eight earthquakes with M ≥2.5 which occurred in the vicinity of five earthquake-prone zones in 2012. So far, we tested the groundwater monitoring data (water-level, temperature and electrical conductivity). Those data have only been treated to remove barometric pressure changes. Then we found 29 anomalous changes, confirming that groundwater monitoring data can provide valuable information on earthquake effects. To identify the effect of the earthquake from mixture signals of water-level, other signals must be separated from the original data. Periodic signals will be separated from the original data using Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). After that we will attempt to separate precipitation effect, and determine if the anomalies were generated by earthquake or not.

  18. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    PubMed Central

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  19. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning.

    PubMed

    Minson, Sarah E; Brooks, Benjamin A; Glennie, Craig L; Murray, Jessica R; Langbein, John O; Owen, Susan E; Heaton, Thomas H; Iannucci, Robert A; Hauser, Darren L

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an M w (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California's Hayward fault, and real data from the M w 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing. PMID:26601167

  20. Intensity earthquake scenario (scenario event - a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence) for the city of Sofia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aleksandrova, Irena; Simeonova, Stela; Solakov, Dimcho; Popova, Maria

    2014-05-01

    Among the many kinds of natural and man-made disasters, earthquakes dominate with regard to their social and economical impact on the urban environment. Global seismic risk to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that a prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The earthquake scenarios are intended as a basic input for developing detailed earthquake damage scenarios for the cities and can be used in earthquake-safe town and infrastructure planning. The city of Sofia is the capital of Bulgaria. It is situated in the centre of the Sofia area that is the most populated (the population is of more than 1.2 mil. inhabitants), industrial and cultural region of Bulgaria that faces considerable earthquake risk. The available historical documents prove the occurrence of destructive earthquakes during the 15th-18th centuries in the Sofia zone. In 19th century the city of Sofia has experienced two strong earthquakes: the 1818 earthquake with epicentral intensity I0=8-9 MSK and the 1858 earthquake with I0=9-10 MSK. During the 20th century the strongest event occurred in the vicinity of the city of Sofia is the 1917 earthquake with MS=5.3 (I0=7-8 MSK). Almost a century later (95 years) an earthquake of moment magnitude 5.6 (I0=7-8 MSK) hit the city of Sofia, on May 22nd, 2012. In the present study as a deterministic scenario event is considered a damaging earthquake with higher probability of occurrence that could affect the city with intensity less than or equal to VIII

  1. Earthquake forecasting and warning

    SciTech Connect

    Rikitake, T.

    1983-01-01

    This review briefly describes two other books on the same subject either written or partially written by Rikitake. In this book, the status of earthquake prediction efforts in Japan, China, the Soviet Union, and the United States are updated. An overview of some of the organizational, legal, and societal aspects of earthquake prediction in these countries is presented, and scientific findings of precursory phenomena are included. A summary of circumstances surrounding the 1975 Haicheng earthquake, the 1978 Tangshan earthquake, and the 1976 Songpan-Pingwu earthquake (all magnitudes = 7.0) in China and the 1978 Izu-Oshima earthquake in Japan is presented. This book fails to comprehensively summarize recent advances in earthquake prediction research.

  2. Crustal earthquake triggering by modern great earthquakes on subduction zone thrusts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, Joan; Sherrod, Brian

    2014-02-01

    Among the many questions raised by the recent abundance of great (M > 8.0) subduction thrust earthquakes is their potential to trigger damaging earthquakes on crustal faults within the overriding plate and beneath many of the world's densely populated urban centers. We take advantage of the coincident abundance of great earthquakes globally and instrumental observations since 1960 to assess this triggering potential by analyzing centroids and focal mechanisms from the centroid moment tensor catalog for events starting in 1976 and published reports about the M9.5 1960 Chile and M9.2 1964 Alaska earthquake sequences. We find clear increases in the rates of crustal earthquakes in the overriding plate within days following all subduction thrust earthquakes of M > 8.6, within about ±10° of the triggering event centroid latitude and longitude. This result is consistent with dynamic triggering of more distant increases of shallow seismicity rates at distances beyond ±10°, suggesting that dynamic triggering may be important within the near field too. Crustal earthquake rate increases may also follow smaller M > 7.5 subduction thrust events, but because activity typically occurs offshore in the immediately vicinity of the triggering rupture plane, it cannot be unambiguously attributed to sources within the overriding plate. These observations are easily explained in the context of existing earthquake scaling laws.

  3. Disturbances in equilibrium function after major earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honma, Motoyasu; Endo, Nobutaka; Osada, Yoshihisa; Kim, Yoshiharu; Kuriyama, Kenichi

    2012-10-01

    Major earthquakes were followed by a large number of aftershocks and significant outbreaks of dizziness occurred over a large area. However it is unclear why major earthquake causes dizziness. We conducted an intergroup trial on equilibrium dysfunction and psychological states associated with equilibrium dysfunction in individuals exposed to repetitive aftershocks versus those who were rarely exposed. Greater equilibrium dysfunction was observed in the aftershock-exposed group under conditions without visual compensation. Equilibrium dysfunction in the aftershock-exposed group appears to have arisen from disturbance of the inner ear, as well as individual vulnerability to state anxiety enhanced by repetitive exposure to aftershocks. We indicate potential effects of autonomic stress on equilibrium function after major earthquake. Our findings may contribute to risk management of psychological and physical health after major earthquakes with aftershocks, and allow development of a new empirical approach to disaster care after such events.

  4. Shallow moonquakes - How they compare with earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nakamura, Y.

    1980-01-01

    Of three types of moonquakes strong enough to be detectable at large distances - deep moonquakes, meteoroid impacts and shallow moonquakes - only shallow moonquakes are similar in nature to earthquakes. A comparison of various characteristics of moonquakes with those of earthquakes indeed shows a remarkable similarity between shallow moonquakes and intraplate earthquakes: (1) their occurrences are not controlled by tides; (2) they appear to occur in locations where there is evidence of structural weaknesses; (3) the relative abundances of small and large quakes (b-values) are similar, suggesting similar mechanisms; and (4) even the levels of activity may be close. The shallow moonquakes may be quite comparable in nature to intraplate earthquakes, and they may be of similar origin.

  5. Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

    2014-01-24

    Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion. PMID:24458636

  6. Earthquake sources near Uturuncu Volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keyson, L.; West, M. E.

    2013-12-01

    Uturuncu, located in southern Bolivia near the Chile and Argentina border, is a dacitic volcano that was last active 270 ka. It is a part of the Altiplano-Puna Volcanic Complex, which spans 50,000 km2 and is comprised of a series of ignimbrite flare-ups since ~23 ma. Two sets of evidence suggest that the region is underlain by a significant magma body. First, seismic velocities show a low velocity layer consistent with a magmatic sill below depths of 15-20 km. This inference is corroborated by high electrical conductivity between 10km and 30km. This magma body, the so called Altiplano-Puna Magma Body (APMB) is the likely source of volcanic activity in the region. InSAR studies show that during the 1990s, the volcano experienced an average uplift of about 1 to 2 cm per year. The deformation is consistent with an expanding source at depth. Though the Uturuncu region exhibits high rates of crustal seismicity, any connection between the inflation and the seismicity is unclear. We investigate the root causes of these earthquakes using a temporary network of 33 seismic stations - part of the PLUTONS project. Our primary approach is based on hypocenter locations and magnitudes paired with correlation-based relative relocation techniques. We find a strong tendency toward earthquake swarms that cluster in space and time. These swarms often last a few days and consist of numerous earthquakes with similar source mechanisms. Most seismicity occurs in the top 10 kilometers of the crust and is characterized by well-defined phase arrivals and significant high frequency content. The frequency-magnitude relationship of this seismicity demonstrates b-values consistent with tectonic sources. There is a strong clustering of earthquakes around the Uturuncu edifice. Earthquakes elsewhere in the region align in bands striking northwest-southeast consistent with regional stresses.

  7. Analysis of recent glacial earthquakes in Greenland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olsen, K.; Nettles, M.

    2015-12-01

    Large calving events at Greenland's outlet glaciers produce teleseismically detectable glacial earthquakes. These events are observed in the seismic record for the past 22 years, but the complete catalog of glacial earthquakes still numbers only ~300. The annual occurrence of these long-period events has increased over time, which makes recent years especially valuable in expanding the global dataset. Glacial earthquakes from 1993- 2010 have been analyzed systematically (Tsai and Ekström, 2007; Veitch and Nettles, 2012). Here, we analyze more recent events using the same centroid—single-force (CSF) approach as previous authors, focusing initially on data from 2013. In addition, we perform a focused study of selected events from 2009-2010 to assess the reliability of the force azimuths obtained from such inversions. Recent spatial and temporal patterns of glacial earthquakes in Greenland differ from those in previous years. In 2013, three times as many events occurred on the west coast as on the east, and these events originated predominantly from two glaciers: Jakobshavn Glacier on the west coast and Helheim Glacier on the east. Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, on the east coast, produced no glacial earthquakes in 2013, though it produced many events in earlier years. Previous CSF results for glacial earthquakes show force azimuths perpendicular to the glacier front during a calving event, with force plunges near horizontal. However, some azimuths indicate forces initially oriented upglacier, while others are oriented downglacier (seaward). We perform a set of experiments on events from 2009 and 2010 and find two acceptable solutions for each glacial earthquake, oriented 180° apart with plunges of opposite sign and centroid times differing by approximately one half of the assumed duration of the earthquake time function. These results suggest the need for a more complex time function to model glacial earthquakes more accurately.

  8. Forecasting the Next Great San Francisco Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, P.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.; Yakovlev, G.; Tiampo, K. F.

    2005-12-01

    The great San Francisco earthquake of 18 April 1906 and its subsequent fires killed more than 3,000 persons, and destroyed much of the city leaving 225,000 out of 400,000 inhabitants homeless. The 1906 earthquake occurred on a km segment of the San Andreas fault that runs from the San Juan Bautista north to Cape Mendocino and is estimated to have had a moment magnitude m ,l 7.9. Observations of surface displacements across the fault were in the range m. As we approach the 100 year anniversary of this event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this talk we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are new results for the statistical distribution of interval times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach. We find that our results are fit well under most circumstances by the Weibull statistical distribution, and we compute waiting times to future earthquakes based upon our simulation results. A contrasting approach to the same problem has been adopted by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, who use observational data combined with statistical assumptions to compute probabilities of future earthquakes.

  9. Computer simulation of earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cohen, S. C.

    1976-01-01

    Two computer simulation models of earthquakes were studied for the dependence of the pattern of events on the model assumptions and input parameters. Both models represent the seismically active region by mechanical blocks which are connected to one another and to a driving plate. The blocks slide on a friction surface. In the first model elastic forces were employed and time independent friction to simulate main shock events. The size, length, and time and place of event occurrence were influenced strongly by the magnitude and degree of homogeniety in the elastic and friction parameters of the fault region. Periodically reoccurring similar events were frequently observed in simulations with near homogeneous parameters along the fault, whereas, seismic gaps were a common feature of simulations employing large variations in the fault parameters. The second model incorporated viscoelastic forces and time-dependent friction to account for aftershock sequences. The periods between aftershock events increased with time and the aftershock region was confined to that which moved in the main event.

  10. Naturally occurring cardiac glycosides.

    PubMed

    Radford, D J; Gillies, A D; Hinds, J A; Duffy, P

    1986-05-12

    Cardiac glycoside poisoning from the ingestion of plants, particularly of oleanders, occurs with reasonable frequency in tropical and subtropical areas. We have assessed a variety of plant specimens for their cardiac glycoside content by means of radioimmunoassays with antibodies that differ in their specificity for cardiac glycosides. Significant amounts of immunoreactive cardiac glycoside were found to be present in the ornamental shrubs: yellow oleander (Thevetia peruviana); oleander (Nerium oleander); wintersweet (Carissa spectabilis); bushman's poison (Carissa acokanthera); sea-mango (Cerbera manghas); and frangipani (Plumeria rubra); and in the milkweeds: redheaded cotton-bush (Asclepias curassavica); balloon cotton (Asclepias fruiticosa); king's crown (Calotropis procera); and rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandifolia). The venom gland of the cane toad (Bufo marinus) also contained large quantities of cardiac glycosides. The competitive immunoassay method permits the rapid screening of specimens that are suspected to contain cardiac glycosides. Awareness of the existence of these plant and animal toxins and their dangers allows them to be avoided and poisoning prevented. The method is also useful for the confirmation of the presence of cardiac glycosides in serum in cases of poisoning. PMID:3086679

  11. Naturally Occurring Food Toxins

    PubMed Central

    Dolan, Laurie C.; Matulka, Ray A.; Burdock, George A.

    2010-01-01

    Although many foods contain toxins as a naturally-occurring constituent or, are formed as the result of handling or processing, the incidence of adverse reactions to food is relatively low. The low incidence of adverse effects is the result of some pragmatic solutions by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other regulatory agencies through the creative use of specifications, action levels, tolerances, warning labels and prohibitions. Manufacturers have also played a role by setting limits on certain substances and developing mitigation procedures for process-induced toxins. Regardless of measures taken by regulators and food producers to protect consumers from natural food toxins, consumption of small levels of these materials is unavoidable. Although the risk for toxicity due to consumption of food toxins is fairly low, there is always the possibility of toxicity due to contamination, overconsumption, allergy or an unpredictable idiosyncratic response. The purpose of this review is to provide a toxicological and regulatory overview of some of the toxins present in some commonly consumed foods, and where possible, discuss the steps that have been taken to reduce consumer exposure, many of which are possible because of the unique process of food regulation in the United States. PMID:22069686

  12. Seismicity and earthquake hazard analysis of the Teton-Yellowstone region, Wyoming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Bonnie J. Pickering; Smith, Robert B.; Husen, Stephan; Farrell, Jamie M.; Wong, Ivan

    2009-11-01

    Earthquakes of the Teton-Yellowstone region represent a high level of seismicity in the Intermountain west (U.S.A.) that is associated with intraplate extension associated with the Yellowstone hotspot including the nearby Teton and Hebgen Lake faults. The seismicity and the occurrence of high slip-rate late Quaternary faults in this region leads to a high level of seismic hazard that was evaluated using new earthquake catalogues determined from three-dimensional (3-D) seismic velocity models, followed by the estimation of the probabilistic seismic hazard incorporating fault slip and background earthquake occurrence rates. The 3-D P-wave velocity structure of the Teton region was determined using local earthquake data from the Jackson Lake seismic network that operated from 1986-2002. An earthquake catalog was then developed for 1986-2002 for the Teton region using relocated hypocenters. The resulting data revealed a seismically quiescent Teton fault, at M L, local magnitude > 3, with diffuse seismicity in the southern Jackson Hole Valley area but notable seismicity eastward into the Gros Ventre Range. Relocated Yellowstone earthquakes determined by the same methods highlight a dominant E-W zone of seismicity that extends from the aftershock area of the 1959 (M S surface wave magnitude) 7.5 Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquake along the north side of the 0.64 Ma Yellowstone caldera. Earthquakes are less frequent and shallow beneath the Yellowstone caldera and notably occur along northward trending zones of activity sub-parallel to the post-caldera volcanic vents. Stress-field orientations derived from inversion of focal mechanism data reveal dominant E-W extension across the Teton fault with a NE-SW extension along the northern Teton fault area and southern Yellowstone. The minimum stress axes directions then rotate to E-W extension across the Yellowstone caldera to N-S extension northwest of the caldera and along the Hebgen Lake fault zone. The combination of accurate

  13. The Ordered Network Structure of M≥8 Earthquakes and its Prediction for the Ordered Pair Great Earthquakes in Mainland China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Men, Ke-Pei; Zhao, Kai

    2014-04-01

    According to the statistical data, a total of 23 M ≥ 8 earthquakes occurred in Mainland China from 1303 to 2012. The seismic activity of M ≥ 8 earthquakes has showed an obvious self-organized orderliness. It should be remarked especially that there were three ordered pairs of M ≥8 earthquakes occurred in West China during 1902 - 2001, of which the time interval in each pair of two earthquakes was four years. This is a unique and rare earthquake example in earthquake history of China and the world. In the guidance of the information forecasting theory of Wen-Bo Weng, based on previous research results, combining ordered analysis with complex network technology, this paper focuses on the summary of the ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes, supplements new information, constructs and further optimizes the 2D- and 3D-ordered network structure of M ≥ 8 earthquakes to make prediction research. At last, a new prediction opinion is presented that the future ordered pair of great earthquakes will probably occur around 2022 and 2026 in Mainland China.

  14. Earthquake precursors: activation or quiescence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, John B.; Holliday, James R.; Yoder, Mark; Sachs, Michael K.; Donnellan, Andrea; Turcotte, Donald L.; Tiampo, Kristy F.; Klein, William; Kellogg, Louise H.

    2011-10-01

    We discuss the long-standing question of whether the probability for large earthquake occurrence (magnitudes m > 6.0) is highest during time periods of smaller event activation, or highest during time periods of smaller event quiescence. The physics of the activation model are based on an idea from the theory of nucleation, that a small magnitude earthquake has a finite probability of growing into a large earthquake. The physics of the quiescence model is based on the idea that the occurrence of smaller earthquakes (here considered as magnitudes m > 3.5) may be due to a mechanism such as critical slowing down, in which fluctuations in systems with long-range interactions tend to be suppressed prior to large nucleation events. To illuminate this question, we construct two end-member forecast models illustrating, respectively, activation and quiescence. The activation model assumes only that activation can occur, either via aftershock nucleation or triggering, but expresses no choice as to which mechanism is preferred. Both of these models are in fact a means of filtering the seismicity time-series to compute probabilities. Using 25 yr of data from the California-Nevada catalogue of earthquakes, we show that of the two models, activation and quiescence, the latter appears to be the better model, as judged by backtesting (by a slight but not significant margin). We then examine simulation data from a topologically realistic earthquake model for California seismicity, Virtual California. This model includes not only earthquakes produced from increases in stress on the fault system, but also background and off-fault seismicity produced by a BASS-ETAS driving mechanism. Applying the activation and quiescence forecast models to the simulated data, we come to the opposite conclusion. Here, the activation forecast model is preferred to the quiescence model, presumably due to the fact that the BASS component of the model is essentially a model for activated seismicity. These

  15. The Likelihood of Major Global Earthquakes and the 2014 Napa Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ejeta, M. Z.

    2014-12-01

    A previous study that analyzed global major earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 and above for the 1897 to 1977 period suggests that random occurrence of these earthquakes is very unlikely (Olsson 1982). Following an analysis of global major earthquakes of magnitude 7 and above for the 1901 to January 2010 period, a recent study attempts to show an association between major global earthquake and cyclic lunisolar alignment events (Ejeta 2011). The latter study suggests that the inverse square relationship in Newton's law of universal gravitation is likely to explain the physics behind the skewed occurrences of major earthquake events around these alignment events. Using random and non-random occurrence analysis, this paper will present the likelihoods of major global earthquakes since 1990 through September 2014 and how the magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of 2014 may be a particular realization of the observed association. Specifically, it will show that using the random occurrence approach, the average probability of occurrence on any day of the 396 major earthquakes recorded by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) during the selected period, which has 9,039 days, is about 4.4%. It will also show that based on the observed association, these events are skewed, with average probabilities of about 39% and 68%, respectively, towards one and two days within lunisolar alignment events recorded by the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) during the same period. Of the 396 major earthquake events during the selected period, 154 and 271 occurred, respectively, within one and two days of either new, first quarter, full, or last quarter moon days. This result suggests that a major earthquake event that occurred during this period was more likely than not to have occurred within two days of an alignment event. The magnitude 6.0 Napa earthquake of August 24, 2014, occurred within a day of the August 25, 2014, new moon day. This paper suggests that further research

  16. Earthquake Recurrence and Slip Over the Past 4 - 5 events on the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains Section of the San Andreas Fault

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Streig, A. R.; Dawson, T. E.; Weldon, R. J.

    2011-12-01

    The Santa Cruz Mountains section (SAS) of the San Andreas fault last ruptured during the 1906 earthquake, an event that ruptured about 470 km, from Point Arena to San Juan Bautista, California. Paleoseismic studies on the SAS at the Grizzly Flat (GF) and Arano Flat - Mill Creek (AF) paleoseismic sites provide evidence of 1906 surface deformation, but have yielded differing records of prehistoric surface-fault ruptures. GF is located 14 km northwest of the AF site and records one 17th Century earthquake dated between 1632-1659 (Schwartz et al., 1996). The record at AF site records a younger penultimate earthquake between AD 1711 - 1770, with a third event between AD 1660-1670 (Fumal, in review). The AF sites suggest nine earthquakes in the past ~1000 years, and an average recurrence interval of 105 years over the past 1,000 years (Fumal et al., 2003). The Hazel Dell site is located approximately 9.5 km north of AF, between the AF and GF sites. This site has yielded good evidence of the most recent earthquake the 1906 surface rupture (E1), and 3 to 4 earlier events, including new evidence for two mid 1800's earthquakes. Evidence for the penultimate event, E2, is expressed as upward fault terminations within a massive sand infilling a topographic low. This sand infilled a depression formed by the pre-penultimate earthquake, E3. We identified milled wood stratigraphically below the pre-penultimate earthquake horizon, which suggests that surface rupturing earthquakes E2 and E3 occurred after deposition of the milled wood stratigraphic unit. Lumber harvesting began in the area around 1832, which suggests that earthquakes E2 and E3 are historical. Based on the presence of milled wood, the stratigraphic record at Hazel Dell appears more complete during the early historical period than at the AF and GF sites. These new event data for the SAS suggest more frequent surface rupturing earthquakes within historical time than previously recognized. We present a preliminary short

  17. Nepal Earthquake: Exploring some of the Catastrophes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hazra, Pranab; Sundar De, Syam; Paul, Suman; Ghosh, Abhijit; Guha, Gautam

    2016-07-01

    The characteristic variations of different meteorological parameters during the period of Nepal earthquakes having M=7.8 occurred on April 25, 2015 and M=7.3 on May 12, 2015 are presented. The results are interpreted in terms of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere coupling processes occurred due to thermal anomalies in the event of major earthquakes. These are reported in terms of thermodynamic properties within the lower ionosphere. The differences in the results are explained through the emission of α-particle from Rn ^{222}.

  18. Thoracic Injuries in earthquake-related versus non-earthquake-related trauma patients: differentiation via Multi-detector Computed Tomography

    PubMed Central

    Dong, Zhi-hui; Yang, Zhi-gang; Chen, Tian-wu; Chu, Zhi-gang; Deng, Wen; Shao, Heng

    2011-01-01

    PURPOSE: Massive earthquakes are harmful to humankind. This study of a historical cohort aimed to investigate the difference between earthquake-related crush thoracic traumas and thoracic traumas unrelated to earthquakes using a multi-detector Computed Tomography (CT). METHODS: We retrospectively compared an earthquake-exposed cohort of 215 thoracic trauma crush victims of the Sichuan earthquake to a cohort of 215 non-earthquake-related thoracic trauma patients, focusing on the lesions and coexisting injuries to the thoracic cage and the pulmonary parenchyma and pleura using a multi-detector CT. RESULTS: The incidence of rib fracture was elevated in the earthquake-exposed cohort (143 vs. 66 patients in the non-earthquake-exposed cohort, Risk Ratio (RR) = 2.2; p<0.001). Among these patients, those with more than 3 fractured ribs (106/143 vs. 41/66 patients, RR = 1.2; p<0.05) or flail chest (45/143 vs. 11/66 patients, RR = 1.9; p<0.05) were more frequently seen in the earthquake cohort. Earthquake-related crush injuries more frequently resulted in bilateral rib fractures (66/143 vs. 18/66 patients, RR = 1.7; p<0.01). Additionally, the incidence of non-rib fracture was higher in the earthquake cohort (85 vs. 60 patients, RR = 1.4; p<0.01). Pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries were more frequently seen in earthquake-related crush injuries (117 vs. 80 patients, RR = 1.5 for parenchymal and 146 vs. 74 patients, RR = 2.0 for pleural injuries; p<0.001). Non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries had significant positive correlation with rib fractures in these two cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic crush traumas resulting from the earthquake were life threatening with a high incidence of bony thoracic fractures. The ribs were frequently involved in bilateral and severe types of fractures, which were accompanied by non-rib fractures, pulmonary parenchymal and pleural injuries. PMID:21789386

  19. Unified scaling law for earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Christensen, Kim; Danon, Leon; Scanlon, Tim; Bak, Per

    2002-01-01

    We propose and verify a unified scaling law that provides a framework for viewing the probability of the occurrence of earthquakes in a given region and for a given cutoff magnitude. The law shows that earthquakes occur in hierarchical correlated clusters, which overlap with other spatially separated correlated clusters for large enough time periods and areas. For a small enough region and time-scale, only a single correlated group can be sampled. The law links together the Gutenberg–Richter Law, the Omori Law of aftershocks, and the fractal dimensions of the faults. The Omori Law is shown to be the short time limit of general hierarchical phenomenon containing the statistics of both “main shocks” and “aftershocks,” indicating that they are created by the same mechanism. PMID:11875203

  20. Non-volcanic tremors, low-frequency earthquake swarms, and their association with orogenic fluid flow in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, K. H.; Kim, A.; Chuang, Y. L.; Peng, W.; Leu, T.

    2012-12-01

    Taiwan is a young transpressive orogen exhibiting high uplift and exhumation. Under the southern flank of Central Range, two types of seismic activities typically observed in volcanic region are found to occur closely in space. Swarms of earthquakes showing vertical planar features occur frequently at a depth range of 0-20 km, whereas some shallow events (< 7 km) reveal the characteristics similar to volcanic low-frequency earthquakes: (1) dominant by ~ 2 Hz (2) lack of S phases (3) long coda. Below the swarm events, the deep-seated, ambient tremors are also observed. Spatial correlation between deeper tremor and shallow low-frequency swarm events indicates a common generation mechanism. These two seismic activities are confined in a small area where the localized veining, anomalous magnetic and thermal anomalies are distributed, suggesting the involvement of fluid-pressure processes within the orogen. Here we pay special attention to develop an automatic detection scheme for Taiwan tremors. Using this method we find 87 tremor episodes with duration ranging from 5 to 30 minutes. The tremors activity appears to have increased at the time of local M6 earthquakes. In March 2008, an active swarm composed of 632 events (M0.4-5.2) occurred only two days apart of the preceding tremor episode (duration 60 minutes). The possible spatial and temporal relationship between ambient tremors and earthquake swarms provides a rare opportunity for the understanding of tremor source model. Here we examine if the swarms are induced by shear stress increases due to slip events along the decollement underneath Central Range. Other than slip model, fluid-filled cracks model is also examined. Moment tensor inversion will be used to determine focal mechanism of the low-frequency earthquake swarms, to investigate the fluids related volume changes.

  1. Source parameters of a M4.8 and its accompanying repeating earthquakes off Kamaishi, NE Japan: Implications for the hierarchical structure of asperities and earthquake cycle

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Uchida, N.; Matsuzawa, T.; Ellsworth, W.L.; Imanishi, K.; Okada, T.; Hasegawa, A.

    2007-01-01

    We determine the source parameters of a M4.9 ?? 0.1 'characteristic earthquake' sequence and its accompanying microearthquakes at ???50 km depth on the subduction plate boundary offshore of Kamaishi, NE Japan. The microearthquakes tend to occur more frequently in the latter half of the recurrence intervals of the M4.9 ?? 0.1 events. Our results show that the microearthquakes are repeating events and they are located not only around but also within the slip area for the 2001 M4.8 event. From the hierarchical structure of slip areas and smaller stress drops for the microearthquakes compared to the M4.8 event, we infer the small repeating earthquakes rupture relatively weak patches in and around the slip area for the M4.8 event and their activity reflects a stress concentration process and/or change in frictional property (healing) at the area. We also infer the patches for the M4.9 ?? 0.1 and other repeating earthquakes undergo aseismic slip during their interseismic period. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. Psychological Intervention in Primary Care After Earthquakes in Lorca, Spain

    PubMed Central

    Garriga, Ascensión; Egea, Carmen

    2015-01-01

    Objective: After the earthquakes that occurred in Lorca, Spain, on May 11, 2011, the regional mental health management employed 2 clinical psychologists for 6 months to provide care to people referred by primary care physicians. The objective was to address the expected increased demand for treatment of mental disorders, notably posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and adjustment disorders. Method: Referred individuals were evaluated and treated according to a clinical protocol designed ad hoc from June 12, 2011, to November 30, 2011. The protocol provided a stepped intervention guided by clinical and psychometric assessment using “normalization” for those with no psychiatric diagnosis, brief group treatment for mild to moderate PTSD or adjustment disorders, individual treatment for more severe PTSD, and referral to the local mental health center for other mental health disorders. Standard adult and child scales to assess posttraumatic, depression, and anxiety symptoms and resilience were used at initial assessment to guide treatment allocation and repeated to assess outcome status. Psychologists also provided a clinical assessment of symptom resolution at the end of the study. Results: Rates of symptom resolution and improvements on all scales (PTSD, depression, anxiety, and resilience) demonstrated clinically and statistically significant improvement in all treatment groups (P = .000). Dropout was low. Medications were prescribed frequently to adults; no child received medication as a result of the earthquakes. No case of mental disorder related to the earthquakes was referred to the local mental health center during the 6 months of psychologist intervention. Conclusion:The structured intervention resulted in a high resolution of cases and low dropout, allowing treatment of a larger number of people with optimal frequency (weekly), devoting more time to the most severe cases and less to those moderately or mildly affected. PMID:26137356

  3. On the reported magnetic precursor of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, J.N.; Love, J.J.; Johnston, M.J.S.

    2009-01-01

    Among the most frequently cited reports in the science of earthquake prediction is that by Fraser-Smith et al. (1990) and Bernardi et al. (1991). They found anomalous enhancement of magnetic-field noise levels prior to the 18 October 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake in the ultra-low-frequency range (0.0110-10.001 Hz) from a ground-based sensor at Corralitos, CA, just 7 km from the earthquake epicenter. In this analysis, we re-examine all of the available Corralitos data (21 months from January 1989 to October 1990) and the logbook kept during this extended operational period. We also examine 1.0-Hz (1-s) data collected from Japan, 0.0167-Hz (1-min) data collected from the Fresno, CA magnetic observatory, and the global Kp magnetic-activity index. The Japanese data are of particular importance since their acquisition rate is sufficient to allow direct comparison with the lower-frequency bands of the Corralitos data. We identify numerous problems in the Corralitos data, evident from both straightforward examination of the Corralitos data on their own and by comparison with the Japanese and Fresno data sets. The most notable problems are changes in the baseline noise levels occurring during both the reported precursory period and at other times long before and after the earthquake. We conclude that the reported anomalous magnetic noise identified by Fraser-Smith et al. and Bernardi et al. is not related to the Loma Prieta earthquake but is an artifact of sensor-system malfunction. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

  4. Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake.

    PubMed

    Bakun, W H; Aagaard, B; Dost, B; Ellsworth, W L; Hardebeck, J L; Harris, R A; Ji, C; Johnston, M J S; Langbein, J; Lienkaemper, J J; Michael, A J; Murray, J R; Nadeau, R M; Reasenberg, P A; Reichle, M S; Roeloffs, E A; Shakal, A; Simpson, R W; Waldhauser, F

    2005-10-13

    Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking. PMID:16222291

  5. Response of Sensitive Behaviors to Frequent Measurement

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    We study the influence of frequent survey measurement on behavior. Widespread access to the Internet has made important breakthroughs in frequent measurement possible—potentially revolutionizing social science measurement of processes that change quickly over time. One key concern about using such frequent measurement is that it may influence the behavior being studied. We investigate this possibility using both a population-based experiment with random assignment to participation in a weekly journal for twelve months (versus no journal) and a large scale population-based journal-keeping study with weekly measurement for 30 months. Results reveal few of the measured behaviors are correlated with assignment to frequent measurement. Theoretical reasoning regarding the likely behavioral response to frequent measurement correctly predicts domains most vulnerable to this possibility. Overall, however, we found little evidence of behavioral response to frequent measurement. PMID:25432599

  6. Astronomical tides and earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Xiaoping; Mao, Wei; Huang, Yong

    2001-03-01

    A review on the studies of correlation between astronomical tides and earthquakes is given in three categories, including (1) earthquakes and the relative locations of the sun, the moon and the earth, (2) earthquakes and the periods and phases of tides and (3) earthquakes and the tidal stress. The first two categories mainly investigate whether or not there exist any dominant pattern of the relative locations of the sun, the moon and the earth during earthquakes, whether or not the occurrences of earthquakes are clustered in any special phase during a tidal period, whether or not there exists any tidal periodic phenomenon in seismic activities, By empasizing the tidal stress in seismic focus, the third category investigates the relationship between various seismic faults and the triggering effects of tidal stress, which reaches the crux of the issue. Possible reasons to various inconsistent investigation results by using various methods and samples are analyzed and further investigations are proposed.

  7. The 2005 volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm in the Andaman Sea: Triggered by the 2004 great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kundu, Bhaskar; Legrand, Denis; Gahalaut, Kalpna; Gahalaut, Vineet K.; Mahesh, P.; Kamesh Raju, K. A.; Catherine, J. K.; Ambikapthy, A.; Chadha, R. K.

    2012-10-01

    A 6 day duration earthquakes swarm occurred in the Andaman Sea, 31 days after the giant 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (Mw 9.2). The swarm occurred less than 100 km from the eastern edge of the 2004 earthquake rupture and is the most energetic ever recorded in the world. The earthquakes swarm appear to have occurred on en echelon fault system bounded by the two main right-lateral strike-slip faults, namely, the Seulimeum Strand of Sumatra Fault system (SEU) and the West Andaman Fault (WAF). At the beginning of the swarm, earthquakes with predominantly strike-slip focal mechanisms occurred which were followed by earthquakes with predominantly normal faulting focal mechanisms having significant deviatoric component. Highbvalue, presence of double slope in the Gutenberg-Richter relation, presence of monogenetic submarine volcanoes in the region of the swarm and the earthquake focal mechanisms suggest that the swarm was of volcano-tectonic origin and fluid flow played an important role in its occurrence. Indeed, our modeling suggests that it was triggered by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake through poroelastic relaxation of the coseismic stresses.

  8. Earthquakes, active faults, and geothermal areas in the Imperial Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hill, D.P.; Mowinckel, P.; Peake, L.G.

    1975-01-01

    A dense seismograph network in the Imperial Valley recorded a series of earthquake swarms along the Imperial and Brawley faults and a diffuse pattern of earthquakes along the San Jacinto fault. Two known geothermal areas are closely associated with these earthquake swarms. This seismicity pattern demonstrates that seismic slip is occurring along both the Imperial-Brawley and San Jacinto fault systems.

  9. Use of wavelets techniques to discriminate between explosions and natural earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beccar-Varela, Maria P.; Gonzalez-Huizar, Hector; Mariani, Maria C.; Tweneboah, Osei K.

    2016-09-01

    Wavelets analysis is used to discriminate between explosions and natural earthquakes. We applied wavelets techniques to analyze the seismograms of a set of mining explosions, reported in catalogs as earthquakes, and compared them with natural earthquakes that occurred in the same region (within a radius of 10 km).

  10. Earthquakes, active faults, and geothermal areas in the imperial valley, california.

    PubMed

    Hill, D P; Mowinckel, P; Peake, L G

    1975-06-27

    A dense seismograph network in the Imperial Valley recorded a series of earthquake swarms along the Imperial and Brawley faults and a diffuse pattern of earthquakes along the San Jacinto fault. Two known geothermal areas are closely associated with these earthquake swarms. This seismicity pattern demonstrates that seismic slip is occurring along both the Imperial-Brawley and San Jacinto fault systems. PMID:17772600

  11. Earthquakes clustering based on the magnitude and the depths in Molluca Province

    SciTech Connect

    Wattimanela, H. J.; Pasaribu, U. S.; Indratno, S. W.; Puspito, A. N. T.

    2015-12-22

    In this paper, we present a model to classify the earthquakes occurred in Molluca Province. We use K-Means clustering method to classify the earthquake based on the magnitude and the depth of the earthquake. The result can be used for disaster mitigation and for designing evacuation route in Molluca Province.

  12. Absence of remotely triggered large earthquakes beyond the mainshock region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Velasco, A.A.

    2011-01-01

    Large earthquakes are known to trigger earthquakes elsewhere. Damaging large aftershocks occur close to the mainshock and microearthquakes are triggered by passing seismic waves at significant distances from the mainshock. It is unclear, however, whether bigger, more damaging earthquakes are routinely triggered at distances far from the mainshock, heightening the global seismic hazard after every large earthquake. Here we assemble a catalogue of all possible earthquakes greater than M 5 that might have been triggered by every M 7 or larger mainshock during the past 30 years. We compare the timing of earthquakes greater than M 5 with the temporal and spatial passage of surface waves generated by large earthquakes using a complete worldwide catalogue. Whereas small earthquakes are triggered immediately during the passage of surface waves at all spatial ranges, we find no significant temporal association between surface-wave arrivals and larger earthquakes. We observe a significant increase in the rate of seismic activity at distances confined to within two to three rupture lengths of the mainshock. Thus, we conclude that the regional hazard of larger earthquakes is increased after a mainshock, but the global hazard is not.

  13. Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake.

    PubMed

    Gomberg, J; Bodin, P; Larson, K; Dragert, H

    2004-02-12

    The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered widespread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable. PMID:14961117

  14. Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Bodin, P.; Larson, K.; Dragert, H.

    2004-01-01

    The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered wide-spread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.

  15. Earthquake Hazard in the Heart of the Homeland

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; Schweig, Eugene

    2007-01-01

    Evidence that earthquakes threaten the Mississippi, Ohio, and Wabash River valleys of the Central United States abounds. In fact, several of the largest historical earthquakes to strike the continental United States occurred in the winter of 1811-1812 along the New Madrid seismic zone, which stretches from just west of Memphis, Tenn., into southern Illinois. Several times in the past century, moderate earthquakes have been widely felt in the Wabash Valley seismic zone along the southern border of Illinois and Indiana. Throughout the region, between 150 and 200 earthquakes are recorded annually by a network of monitoring instruments, although most are too small to be felt by people. Geologic evidence for prehistoric earthquakes throughout the region has been mounting since the late 1970s. But how significant is the threat? How likely are large earthquakes and, more importantly, what is the chance that the shaking they cause will be damaging?

  16. The loma prieta, california, earthquake: an anticipated event.

    PubMed

    1990-01-19

    The first major earthquake on the San Andreas fault since 1906 fulfilled a long-term forecast for its rupture in the southern Santa Cruz Mountains. Severe damage occurred at distances of up to 100 kilometers from the epicenter in areas underlain by ground known to be hazardous in strong earthquakes. Stronger earthquakes will someday strike closer to urban centers in the United States, most of which also contain hazardous ground. The Loma Prieta earthquake demonstrated that meaningful predictions can be made of potential damage patterns and that, at least in well-studied areas, long-term forecasts can be made of future earthquake locations and magnitudes. Such forecasts can serve as a basis for action to reduce the threat major earthquakes pose to the United States. PMID:17735847

  17. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-01-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake's parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data. PMID:25472861

  18. NCEER seminars on earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pantelic, J.

    1987-01-01

    In May of 1986, the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER) in Buffalo, New York, held the first seminar in its new monthly forum called Seminars on Earthquakes. The Center's purpose in initiating the seminars was to educate the audience about earthquakes, to facilitate cooperation between the NCEER and visiting researchers, and to enable visiting speakers to learn more about the NCEER   

  19. Earthquake at 40 feet

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, G. J.

    1976-01-01

    The earthquake that struck the island of Guam on November 1, 1975, at 11:17 a.m had many unique aspects-not the least of which was the experience of an earthquake of 6.25 Richter magnitude while at 40 feet. My wife Bonnie, a fellow diver, Greg Guzman, and I were diving at Gabgab Beach in teh outer harbor of Apra Harbor, engaged in underwater phoyography when the earthquake struck. 

  20. Earthquakes and Plate Boundaries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lowman, Paul; And Others

    1978-01-01

    Contains the contents of the Student Investigation booklet of a Crustal Evolution Education Project (CEEP) instructional modules on earthquakes. Includes objectives, procedures, illustrations, worksheets, and summary questions. (MA)

  1. Are Earthquake Magnitudes Clustered?

    SciTech Connect

    Davidsen, Joern; Green, Adam

    2011-03-11

    The question of earthquake predictability is a long-standing and important challenge. Recent results [Phys. Rev. Lett. 98, 098501 (2007); ibid.100, 038501 (2008)] have suggested that earthquake magnitudes are clustered, thus indicating that they are not independent in contrast to what is typically assumed. Here, we present evidence that the observed magnitude correlations are to a large extent, if not entirely, an artifact due to the incompleteness of earthquake catalogs and the well-known modified Omori law. The latter leads to variations in the frequency-magnitude distribution if the distribution is constrained to those earthquakes that are close in space and time to the directly following event.

  2. Missing Great Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.; Martin, S.

    2013-12-01

    The occurrence of three earthquakes with Mw greater than 8.8, and six earthquakes larger than Mw8.5, since 2004 has raised interest in the long-term rate of great earthquakes. Past studies have focused on rates since 1900, which roughly marks the start of the instrumental era. Yet substantial information is available for earthquakes prior to 1900. A re-examination of the catalog of global historical earthquakes reveals a paucity of Mw ≥ 8.5 events during the 18th and 19th centuries compared to the rate during the instrumental era (Hough, 2013, JGR), suggesting that the magnitudes of some documented historical earthquakes have been underestimated, with approximately half of all Mw≥8.5 earthquakes missing or underestimated in the 19th century. Very large (Mw≥8.5) magnitudes have traditionally been estimated for historical earthquakes only from tsunami observations given a tautological assumption that all such earthquakes generate significant tsunamis. Magnitudes would therefore tend to be underestimated for deep megathrust earthquakes that generated relatively small tsunamis, deep earthquakes within continental collision zones, earthquakes that produced tsunamis that were not documented, outer rise events, and strike-slip earthquakes such as the 11 April 2012 Sumatra event. We further show that, where magnitudes of historical earthquakes are estimated from earthquake intensities using the Bakun and Wentworth (1997, BSSA) method, magnitudes of great earthquakes can be significantly underestimated. Candidate 'missing' great 19th century earthquakes include the 1843 Lesser Antilles earthquake, which recent studies suggest was significantly larger than initial estimates (Feuillet et al., 2012, JGR; Hough, 2013), and an 1841 Kamchatka event, for which Mw9 was estimated by Gusev and Shumilina (2004, Izv. Phys. Solid Ear.). We consider cumulative moment release rates during the 19th century compared to that during the 20th and 21st centuries, using both the Hough

  3. Seismic and Geodetic Investigation of the 1996-1998 Earthquake Swarm at Strandline Lake, Alaska

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kilgore, W.; Roman, D. C.; Power, J. A.; Hansen, R. A.; Biggs, J.

    2009-12-01

    Microearthquake (< M3.0) swarms occur frequently in volcanic environments, but do not always culminate in an eruption. Such non-eruptive swarms may be caused by stresses induced by magma intrusion, hydrothermal fluid circulation, or regional tectonic processes, such as slow-slip earthquakes. Strandline Lake, located 30 km northeast of Mount Spurr volcano in south-central Alaska, experienced a strong earthquake swarm between August 1996 and August 1998. The Alaska Volcano Observatory (AVO) catalog indicates that a total of 2,999 earthquakes were detected during the swarm period, with a maximum magnitude of Mw 3.1 and a depth range of 0-30 km below sea level (with the majority of catalog hypocenters located between 5-10 km BSL). The cumulative seismic moment of the swarm was 2.03e15 N m, equivalent to a cumulative magnitude of Mw 4.2. Because of the swarm's distance from the nearest Holocene volcanic vent, seismic monitoring was poor and gas and deformation data for the swarm period do not exist. However, combined waveforms from a dense seismic network on Mount Spurr and from several regional seismic stations allowed us to re-analyze the swarm earthquakes. We first developed a new 1-D velocity model for the Strandline Lake region by re-picking and inverting precise arrival times for 27 large Strandline Lake earthquakes. The new velocity model reduced the average RMS for these earthquakes from 0.16 to 0.11s, and the average horizontal and vertical location errors from 3.3 to 2.5 km and 4.7 to 3.0 km, respectively. Depths of the 27 earthquakes ranged from 10.5 to 22.1 km with an average depth of 16.6 km. A moderately high b-value of 1.33 was determined for the swarm period, possibly indicative of magmatic activity. However, a similarly high b-value of 1.25 was calculated for the background period. 28 well-constrained fault plane solutions for both swarm and background earthquakes indicate a diverse mixture of strike-slip, dip-slip, and reverse faulting beneath

  4. Landslides triggered by the earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Harp, E.L.; Keefer, D.K.

    1990-01-01

    The May 2 earthquake triggered landslides numbering in the thousands. Most numerous were rockfalls and rockslides that occurred mainly on slopes steeper than 60{degree} within sandstone, siltstone, and shale units of Upper Cretaceous and Tertiary strata. Soil falls from cutbank slopes along streams were also numerous. Seven slumps in natural slopes were triggered, and minor liquefaction-induced lateral-spread failures occurred along Los Gatos Creek. Rockfalls and rockslides occurred as far as 34 km northwest, 15 km south, and 26 km southwest of the epicenter. There were few slope failures to the east of the epicenter, owing to the absence of steep slopes in that direction. Throughout the area affected, rockfalls and rockslides were concentrated on southwest-facing slopes; the failures on slopes facing in the southwest quadrant accounted for as much as 93% of all failures in some areas. Rockfalls and rockslides from ridge crests were predominantly from sandstone units. Along steeply incised canyons, however, failures in shale and siltstone units were also common. Small rockslides and soil slides occurred from cut slopes above oil-well pump pads in the oil fields; slumps were common in the outer parts of steep fill slopes of the pump pads. The distribution of seismically induced landslides throughout the entire earthquake-affected area was mapped from true-color airphotos taken on May 3, 1985.

  5. The 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) sequence and subduction dynamics in Western Pacific and East Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Dapeng

    2015-02-01

    We review recent findings on the causal mechanism of the great 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw 9.0) sequence and related issues on seismic structure and subduction dynamics in Western Pacific and East Asia. High-resolution tomography revealed significant lateral heterogeneities in the interplate megathrust zone beneath the Tohoku, South Kuril and Southwest Japan forearc regions. Large megathrust earthquakes since 1900 generally occurred in or around high-velocity (high-V) patches in the megathrust zone, which may reflect asperities resulting from subducted seamounts, oceanic ridges and other topographic highs on the Pacific seafloor. In contrast, low-velocity (low-V) patches in the megathrust zone may contain more sediments and fluids, where the subducting oceanic plate and the overlying continental plate are less coupled or even decoupled. The nucleation of large crustal earthquakes in the Japan Islands, including the 11 April 2011 Iwaki earthquake (M 7.0) in SE Tohoku, is affected by arc magma and fluids resulting from slab dehydration. The Philippine Sea plate has subducted aseismically down to 430-460 km depth under East China Sea, Tsushima Strait and Japan Sea. A window in the aseismic Philippine Sea slab is detected, which may be caused by splitting of weak parts of the slab at the subducted ridges (e.g., Kyushu-Paula ridge) and hot upwelling in the mantle wedge above the Pacific slab. The intraplate volcanism in Northeast Asia is caused by hot and wet upwelling flows in the big mantle wedge above the stagnant Pacific slab in the mantle transition zone. Frequent generation of large deep earthquakes (>500 km depth) in the Pacific slab may supply additional fluids preserved in the slab to the mantle wedge under the Changbai volcano, making Changbai the largest and most active intraplate volcano in Northeast Asia. Fluids may be involved in nucleation and rupture processes of all types of earthquakes.

  6. Somalian Earthquakes of May, 1980, East Africa

    SciTech Connect

    Ruegg, J.C.; Lepine, J.C.; Tarantola, A.; Leveque, J.J.

    1981-04-01

    A seismic crisis, with a m/sub b/ = 5.3 main shock, occured in the Somali Republic East Africa (10 /sup 0/N, 43 /sup 0/E) from April to November 1980. Up to 2000 earthquakes with M/sub L/>2 have been recorded during this period. This earthquake sequence is of particular interest because it occurred in a seismically inactive zone and include a rather long aftershock sequence. Two groups of epicenters were identified using a relative location procedure. Aftershocks observed during the first two weeks fall very close to the Borama City, while latter shocks are situated 10km west. This may suggest that the second group of earthquakes has been induced continental margin between the Somalian Plateau shield and the quasi-oceanic crust of the Afar-Gulf of Aden region, remains active to day and is relevant to intraplate seismicity.

  7. A century of induced earthquakes in Oklahoma?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hough, Susan E.; Page, Morgan T.

    2015-01-01

    Seismicity rates have increased sharply since 2009 in the central and eastern United States, with especially high rates of activity in the state of Oklahoma. Growing evidence indicates that many of these events are induced, primarily by injection of wastewater in deep disposal wells. The upsurge in activity has raised two questions: What is the background rate of tectonic earthquakes in Oklahoma? How much has the rate varied throughout historical and early instrumental times? In this article, we show that (1) seismicity rates since 2009 surpass previously observed rates throughout the twentieth century; (2) several lines of evidence suggest that most of the significant earthquakes in Oklahoma during the twentieth century were likely induced by oil production activities, as they exhibit statistically significant temporal and spatial correspondence with disposal wells, and intensity measurements for the 1952 El Reno earthquake and possibly the 1956 Tulsa County earthquake follow the pattern observed in other induced earthquakes; and (3) there is evidence for a low level of tectonic seismicity in southeastern Oklahoma associated with the Ouachita structural belt. The 22 October 1882 Choctaw Nation earthquake, for which we estimate Mw 4.8, occurred in this zone.

  8. A revised “earthquake report” questionaire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Stover, C.; Reagor, G.; Simon, R.

    1976-01-01

    The U.S geological Survey is responsible for conducting intensity and damage surveys following felt or destructive earthquakes in the United States. Shortly after a felt or damaging earthquake occurs, a canvass of the affected area is made. Specially developed questionnaires are mailed to volunteer observers located within the estimated felt area. These questionnaires, "Earthquake Reports," are filled out by the observers and returned to the Survey's National Earthquake Information Service, which is located in Colorado. They are then evaluated, and, based on answers to questions about physical effects seen or felt, each canvassed location is assigned to the various locations, they are plotted on an intensity distribution map. When all of the intensity data have been plotted, isoseismals can then be contoured through places where equal intensity was experienced. The completed isoseismal map yields a detailed picture of the earthquake, its effects, and its felt area. All of the data and maps are published quarterly in a U.S Geological Survey Circular series entitled "Earthquakes in the United States".  

  9. Earthquake Breccias (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rowe, C. D.; Melosh, B. L.; Lamothe, K.; Schnitzer, V.; Bate, C.

    2013-12-01

    fracture tip propagation in both field studies and analog experiments. In dilational jogs, these fractures interact and intersect the wall rock foliation to cut the wall rock into distinctive clast shapes and sizes, giving the breccia a characteristic texture that can be defined quantitatively by image analysis. Breccia clast morphology, size distribution and angularity are markers for dynamic fracture patterns. Older microbreccias are cemented, and interfingering grain boundaries between quartz in clasts and quartz in cement show that crystal plastic deformation of quartz has occurred after breccia cementation. These deformed breccias are cut by younger breccias, establishing cyclicity of brittle and ductile slip on the Pofadder Shear Zone. Our results distinguish between fault breccias that could have formed quasi-statically, and those that are the result of dynamic processes and therefore define a new tool for recognizing earthquakes in the rock record.

  10. Post-earthquake building safety assessments for the Canterbury Earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Marshall, J.; Barnes, J.; Gould, N.; Jaiswal, K.; Lizundia, B.; Swanson, David A.; Turner, F.

    2012-01-01

    This paper explores the post-earthquake building assessment program that was utilized in Christchurch, New Zealand following the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes beginning with the Magnitude (Mw.) 7.1 Darfield event in September 2010. The aftershocks or triggered events, two of which exceeded Mw 6.0, continued with events in February and June 2011 causing the greatest amount of damage. More than 70,000 building safety assessments were completed following the February event. The timeline and assessment procedures will be discussed including the use of rapid response teams, selection of indicator buildings to monitor damage following aftershocks, risk assessments for demolition of red-tagged buildings, the use of task forces to address management of the heavily damaged downtown area and the process of demolition. Through the post-event safety assessment program that occurred throughout the Canterbury Sequence of earthquakes, many important lessons can be learned that will benefit future response to natural hazards that have potential to damage structures.

  11. Induced earthquake magnitudes are as large as (statistically) expected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Elst, N.; Page, M. T.; Weiser, D. A.; Goebel, T.; Hosseini, S. M.

    2015-12-01

    Key questions with implications for seismic hazard and industry practice are how large injection-induced earthquakes can be, and whether their maximum size is smaller than for similarly located tectonic earthquakes. Deterministic limits on induced earthquake magnitudes have been proposed based on the size of the reservoir or the volume of fluid injected. McGarr (JGR 2014) showed that for earthquakes confined to the reservoir and triggered by pore-pressure increase, the maximum moment should be limited to the product of the shear modulus G and total injected volume ΔV. However, if induced earthquakes occur on tectonic faults oriented favorably with respect to the tectonic stress field, then they may be limited only by the regional tectonics and connectivity of the fault network, with an absolute maximum magnitude that is notoriously difficult to constrain. A common approach for tectonic earthquakes is to use the magnitude-frequency distribution of smaller earthquakes to forecast the largest earthquake expected in some time period. In this study, we show that the largest magnitudes observed at fluid injection sites are consistent with the sampling statistics of the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) distribution for tectonic earthquakes, with no assumption of an intrinsic upper bound. The GR law implies that the largest observed earthquake in a sample should scale with the log of the total number induced. We find that the maximum magnitudes at most sites are consistent with this scaling, and that maximum magnitude increases with log ΔV. We find little in the size distribution to distinguish induced from tectonic earthquakes. That being said, the probabilistic estimate exceeds the deterministic GΔV cap only for expected magnitudes larger than ~M6, making a definitive test of the models unlikely in the near future. In the meantime, however, it may be prudent to treat the hazard from induced earthquakes with the same probabilistic machinery used for tectonic earthquakes.

  12. Correlating precursory declines in groundwater radon with earthquake magnitude.

    PubMed

    Kuo, T

    2014-01-01

    Both studies at the Antung hot spring in eastern Taiwan and at the Paihe spring in southern Taiwan confirm that groundwater radon can be a consistent tracer for strain changes in the crust preceding an earthquake when observed in a low-porosity fractured aquifer surrounded by a ductile formation. Recurrent anomalous declines in groundwater radon were observed at the Antung D1 monitoring well in eastern Taiwan prior to the five earthquakes of magnitude (Mw ): 6.8, 6.1, 5.9, 5.4, and 5.0 that occurred on December 10, 2003; April 1, 2006; April 15, 2006; February 17, 2008; and July 12, 2011, respectively. For earthquakes occurring on the longitudinal valley fault in eastern Taiwan, the observed radon minima decrease as the earthquake magnitude increases. The above correlation has been proven to be useful for early warning local large earthquakes. In southern Taiwan, radon anomalous declines prior to the 2010 Mw 6.3 Jiasian, 2012 Mw 5.9 Wutai, and 2012 ML 5.4 Kaohsiung earthquakes were also recorded at the Paihe spring. For earthquakes occurring on different faults in southern Taiwan, the correlation between the observed radon minima and the earthquake magnitude is not yet possible. PMID:23550908

  13. Mexican Earthquakes and Tsunamis Catalog Reviewed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.; Castillo-Aja, R.

    2015-12-01

    Today the availability of information on the internet makes online catalogs very easy to access by both scholars and the public in general. The catalog in the "Significant Earthquake Database", managed by the National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI formerly NCDC), NOAA, allows access by deploying tabular and cartographic data related to earthquakes and tsunamis contained in the database. The NCEI catalog is the product of compiling previously existing catalogs, historical sources, newspapers, and scientific articles. Because NCEI catalog has a global coverage the information is not homogeneous. Existence of historical information depends on the presence of people in places where the disaster occurred, and that the permanence of the description is preserved in documents and oral tradition. In the case of instrumental data, their availability depends on the distribution and quality of seismic stations. Therefore, the availability of information for the first half of 20th century can be improved by careful analysis of the available information and by searching and resolving inconsistencies. This study shows the advances we made in upgrading and refining data for the earthquake and tsunami catalog of Mexico since 1500 CE until today, presented in the format of table and map. Data analysis allowed us to identify the following sources of error in the location of the epicenters in existing catalogs: • Incorrect coordinate entry • Place name erroneous or mistaken • Too general data that makes difficult to locate the epicenter, mainly for older earthquakes • Inconsistency of earthquakes and the tsunami occurrence: earthquake's epicenter located too far inland reported as tsunamigenic. The process of completing the catalogs directly depends on the availability of information; as new archives are opened for inspection, there are more opportunities to complete the history of large earthquakes and tsunamis in Mexico. Here, we also present new earthquake and

  14. The Magnitude and Energy of Large Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Purcaru, G.

    2003-12-01

    Several magnitudes were introduced to quantify large earthquakes better and more comprehensive than Ms: Mw (moment magnitude; Kanamori, 1977), ME (strain energy magnitude; Purcaru and Berckhemer, 1978), Mt (tsunami magnitude; Abe, 1979), Mm (mantle magnitude; Okal and Talandier, 1985), Me (seismic energy magnitude; Choy and Boatwright, 1995). Although these magnitudes are still subject to different uncertainties, various kinds of earthquakes can now be better understood in terms or combinations of them. They can also be viewd as mappings of basic source parameters: seismic moment, strain energy, seismic energy, stress drop, under certain assumptions or constraints. We studied a set of about 90 large earthquakes (shallow and deeper) occurred in different tectonic regimes, with more reliable source parameters, and compared them in terms of the above magnitudes. We found large differences between the strain energy (mapped to ME) and seismic energy (mapped to Me), and between ME of events with about the same Mw. This confirms that no 1-to-1 correspondence exists between these magnitudes (Purcaru, 2002). One major cause of differences for "normal" earthquakes is the level of the stress drop over asperities which release and partition the strain energy. We quantify the energetic balance of earthquakes in terms of strain energy Est and its components (fracture (Eg), friction (Ef) and seismic (Es) energy) using an extended Hamilton's principle. The earthquakes are thrust-interplate, strike slip, shallow in-slab, slow/tsunami, deep and continental. The (scaled) strain energy equation we derived is: Est/M0 = (1+e(g,s))(Es/M_0), e(g,s) = Eg/E_s, assuming complete stress drop, using the (static) stress drop variability, and that Est and Es are not in a 1-to-1 correspondence. With all uncertainties, our analysis reveal, for a given seismic moment, a large variation of earthquakes in terms of energies, even in the same seismic region. In view of these, for further understanding

  15. Frequently asked questions: iodinated contrast agents.

    PubMed

    Bettmann, Michael A

    2004-10-01

    Although iodinated contrast agents are safe and widely used, adverse events occur and questions remain about their use, safety, and interactions. Some questions are easily answered and others still require extensive investigation. For one frequent question--is informed consent necessary before all contrast media injections--the simple answer is no. Another question concerns use of contrast media in patients with prior reactions or allergies. Contrast agents can be safely used in such patients, but special care must be taken to be aware of what the previous reaction was and to be ready to treat any reaction. The protective role of pre-treatment with steroids is well established for minor reactions, but they may not prevent major reactions. It is important to realize that even life-threatening, anaphylactoid reactions are not the result of a true allergy to contrast media. Many questions arise about contrast agent-induced nephropathy. Baseline serum creatinine values should be obtained in patients who are at risk, not all patients. The incidence and natural history of contrast agent-induced nephropathy remain unclear. It occurs only in patients with compromised renal function before contrast agent injection, but even patients with normal serum creatinine levels can have renal dysfunction. Calculated creatinine clearance is a better way to determine risk and to follow this complication. The outcome in almost all patients is benign, with progression to end-stage renal disease being rare. The major risk factors, in addition to renal dysfunction, are long-standing diabetes mellitus, dehydration, and use of other nephrotoxic medications. Recent work in preventing and ameliorating contrast agent-induced nephropathy with N-acetyl cysteine, substitution of an isosmolal nonionic contrast agent, and various hydration regimens has been promising. Another common concern is use of iodinated contrast agents in pregnant or breast-feeding women. In both cases, there is no evidence

  16. Amending and complicating Chile’s seismic catalog with the Santiago earthquake of 7 August 1580

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cisternas, Marco; Torrejón, Fernando; Gorigoitia, Nicolás

    2012-02-01

    Historical earthquakes of Chile's metropolitan region include a previously uncatalogued earthquake that occurred on 7 August 1580 in the Julian calendar. We found an authoritative account of this earthquake in a letter written four days later in Santiago and now archived in Spain. The letter tells of a destructive earthquake that struck Santiago and its environs. In its reported effects it surpassed the one in the same city in 1575, until now presumed to be the only earthquake in the first century of central Chile's written history. It is not yet possible to identify the source of the 1580 earthquake but viable candidates include both the plate boundary and Andean faults at shallows depths around Santiago. By occurring just five years after another large earthquake, the 1580 earthquake casts doubt on the completeness of the region's historical earthquake catalog and the periodicity of its large earthquakes. That catalog, based on eyewitness accounts compiled mainly by Alexander Perrey and Fernand Montessus de Ballore, tells of large Chile's metropolitan region earthquakes in 1575, 1647, 1730, 1822, 1906 and 1985. The addition of a large earthquake in 1580 implies greater variability in recurrence intervals and may also mean greater variety in earthquake sources.

  17. Napa earthquake: An earthquake in a highly connected world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bossu, R.; Steed, R.; Mazet-Roux, G.; Roussel, F.

    2014-12-01

    The Napa earthquake recently occurred close to Silicon Valley. This makes it a good candidate to study what social networks, wearable objects and website traffic analysis (flashsourcing) can tell us about the way eyewitnesses react to ground shaking. In the first part, we compare the ratio of people publishing tweets and with the ratio of people visiting EMSC (European Mediterranean Seismological Centre) real time information website in the first minutes following the earthquake occurrence to the results published by Jawbone, which show that the proportion of people waking up depends (naturally) on the epicentral distance. The key question to evaluate is whether the proportions of inhabitants tweeting or visiting the EMSC website are similar to the proportion of people waking up as shown by the Jawbone data. If so, this supports the premise that all methods provide a reliable image of the relative ratio of people waking up. The second part of the study focuses on the reaction time for both Twitter and EMSC website access. We show, similarly to what was demonstrated for the Mineral, Virginia, earthquake (Bossu et al., 2014), that hit times on the EMSC website follow the propagation of the P waves and that 2 minutes of website traffic is sufficient to determine the epicentral location of an earthquake on the other side of the Atlantic. We also compare with the publication time of messages on Twitter. Finally, we check whether the number of tweets and the number of visitors relative to the number of inhabitants is correlated to the local level of shaking. Together these results will tell us whether the reaction of eyewitnesses to ground shaking as observed through Twitter and the EMSC website analysis is tool specific (i.e. specific to Twitter or EMSC website) or whether they do reflect people's actual reactions.

  18. Prediction of earthquake-triggered landslide event sizes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braun, Anika; Havenith, Hans-Balder; Schlögel, Romy

    2016-04-01

    Seismically induced landslides are a major environmental effect of earthquakes, which may significantly contribute to related losses. Moreover, in paleoseismology landslide event sizes are an important proxy for the estimation of the intensity and magnitude of past earthquakes and thus allowing us to improve seismic hazard assessment over longer terms. Not only earthquake intensity, but also factors such as the fault characteristics, topography, climatic conditions and the geological environment have a major impact on the intensity and spatial distribution of earthquake induced landslides. We present here a review of factors contributing to earthquake triggered slope failures based on an "event-by-event" classification approach. The objective of this analysis is to enable the short-term prediction of earthquake triggered landslide event sizes in terms of numbers and size of the affected area right after an earthquake event occurred. Five main factors, 'Intensity', 'Fault', 'Topographic energy', 'Climatic conditions' and 'Surface geology' were used to establish a relationship to the number and spatial extend of landslides triggered by an earthquake. The relative weight of these factors was extracted from published data for numerous past earthquakes; topographic inputs were checked in Google Earth and through geographic information systems. Based on well-documented recent earthquakes (e.g. Haiti 2010, Wenchuan 2008) and on older events for which reliable extensive information was available (e.g. Northridge 1994, Loma Prieta 1989, Guatemala 1976, Peru 1970) the combination and relative weight of the factors was calibrated. The calibrated factor combination was then applied to more than 20 earthquake events for which landslide distribution characteristics could be cross-checked. One of our main findings is that the 'Fault' factor, which is based on characteristics of the fault, the surface rupture and its location with respect to mountain areas, has the most important

  19. Modified-Fibonacci-Dual-Lucas method for earthquake prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucouvalas, A. C.; Gkasios, M.; Tselikas, N. T.; Drakatos, G.

    2015-06-01

    The FDL method makes use of Fibonacci, Dual and Lucas numbers and has shown considerable success in predicting earthquake events locally as well as globally. Predicting the location of the epicenter of an earthquake is one difficult challenge the other being the timing and magnitude. One technique for predicting the onset of earthquakes is the use of cycles, and the discovery of periodicity. Part of this category is the reported FDL method. The basis of the reported FDL method is the creation of FDL future dates based on the onset date of significant earthquakes. The assumption being that each occurred earthquake discontinuity can be thought of as a generating source of FDL time series The connection between past earthquakes and future earthquakes based on FDL numbers has also been reported with sample earthquakes since 1900. Using clustering methods it has been shown that significant earthquakes (<6.5R) can be predicted with very good accuracy window (+-1 day). In this contribution we present an improvement modification to the FDL method, the MFDL method, which performs better than the FDL. We use the FDL numbers to develop possible earthquakes dates but with the important difference that the starting seed date is a trigger planetary aspect prior to the earthquake. Typical planetary aspects are Moon conjunct Sun, Moon opposite Sun, Moon conjunct or opposite North or South Modes. In order to test improvement of the method we used all +8R earthquakes recorded since 1900, (86 earthquakes from USGS data). We have developed the FDL numbers for each of those seeds, and examined the earthquake hit rates (for a window of 3, i.e. +-1 day of target date) and for <6.5R. The successes are counted for each one of the 86 earthquake seeds and we compare the MFDL method with the FDL method. In every case we find improvement when the starting seed date is on the planetary trigger date prior to the earthquake. We observe no improvement only when a planetary trigger coincided with

  20. Study of Low-Frequency Earth motions from Earthquakes and a Hurricane using a Modified Standard Seismometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peters, R. D.

    2004-12-01

    The modification of a WWSSN Sprengnether vertical seismometer has resulted in significantly improved performance at low frequencies. Instead of being used as a velocity detector as originally designed, the Faraday subsystem is made to function as an actuator to provide a type of force feedback. Added to the instrument to detect ground motions is an array form of the author's symmetric differential capacitive (SDC) sensor. The feedback circuit is not conventional, but rather is used to eliminate long-term drift by placing between sensor and actuator an operational amplifier integrator having a time constant of several thousand seconds. Signal to noise ratio at low frequencies is increased, since the modified instrument does not suffer from the 20dB/decade falloff in sensitivity that characterizes conventional force-feedback seismometers. A Hanning-windowed FFT algorithm is employed in the analysis of recorded earthquakes, including that of the very large Indonesia earthquake (M 7.9) of 25 July 2004. The improved low frequency response allows the study of the free oscillations of the Earth that accompany large earthquakes. Data will be provided showing oscillations with spectral components in the vicinity of 1 mHz, that frequently have been observed with this instrument to occur both before as well as after an earthquake. Additionally, microseisms and other interesting data will be shown from records collected by the instrument as Hurricane Charley moved across Florida and up the eastern seaboard.

  1. OMG Earthquake! Can Twitter improve earthquake response?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Earle, P. S.; Guy, M.; Ostrum, C.; Horvath, S.; Buckmaster, R. A.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is investigating how the social networking site Twitter, a popular service for sending and receiving short, public, text messages, can augment its earthquake response products and the delivery of hazard information. The goal is to gather near real-time, earthquake-related messages (tweets) and provide geo-located earthquake detections and rough maps of the corresponding felt areas. Twitter and other social Internet technologies are providing the general public with anecdotal earthquake hazard information before scientific information has been published from authoritative sources. People local to an event often publish information within seconds via these technologies. In contrast, depending on the location of the earthquake, scientific alerts take between 2 to 20 minutes. Examining the tweets following the March 30, 2009, M4.3 Morgan Hill earthquake shows it is possible (in some cases) to rapidly detect and map the felt area of an earthquake using Twitter responses. Within a minute of the earthquake, the frequency of “earthquake” tweets rose above the background level of less than 1 per hour to about 150 per minute. Using the tweets submitted in the first minute, a rough map of the felt area can be obtained by plotting the tweet locations. Mapping the tweets from the first six minutes shows observations extending from Monterey to Sacramento, similar to the perceived shaking region mapped by the USGS “Did You Feel It” system. The tweets submitted after the earthquake also provided (very) short first-impression narratives from people who experienced the shaking. Accurately assessing the potential and robustness of a Twitter-based system is difficult because only tweets spanning the previous seven days can be searched, making a historical study impossible. We have, however, been archiving tweets for several months, and it is clear that significant limitations do exist. The main drawback is the lack of quantitative information

  2. Earthquake casualty models within the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David J.; Earle, Paul; Porter, Keith A.; Hearne, Mike

    2011-01-01

    Since the launch of the USGS’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system in fall of 2007, the time needed for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to determine and comprehend the scope of any major earthquake disaster anywhere in the world has been dramatically reduced to less than 30 min. PAGER alerts consist of estimated shaking hazard from the ShakeMap system, estimates of population exposure at various shaking intensities, and a list of the most severely shaken cities in the epicentral area. These estimates help government, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses in the immediate aftermath of a significant earthquake. To account for wide variability and uncertainty associated with inventory, structural vulnerability and casualty data, PAGER employs three different global earthquake fatality/loss computation models. This article describes the development of the models and demonstrates the loss estimation capability for earthquakes that have occurred since 2007. The empirical model relies on country-specific earthquake loss data from past earthquakes and makes use of calibrated casualty rates for future prediction. The semi-empirical and analytical models are engineering-based and rely on complex datasets including building inventories, time-dependent population distributions within different occupancies, the vulnerability of regional building stocks, and casualty rates given structural collapse.

  3. The USGS Earthquake Scenario Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wald, D. J.; Petersen, M. D.; Wald, L. A.; Frankel, A. D.; Quitoriano, V. R.; Lin, K.; Luco, N.; Mathias, S.; Bausch, D.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (EHP) is producing a comprehensive suite of earthquake scenarios for planning, mitigation, loss estimation, and scientific investigations. The Earthquake Scenario Project (ESP), though lacking clairvoyance, is a forward-looking project, estimating earthquake hazard and loss outcomes as they may occur one day. For each scenario event, fundamental input includes i) the magnitude and specified fault mechanism and dimensions, ii) regional Vs30 shear velocity values for site amplification, and iii) event metadata. A grid of standard ShakeMap ground motion parameters (PGA, PGV, and three spectral response periods) is then produced using the well-defined, regionally-specific approach developed by the USGS National Seismic Hazard Mapping Project (NHSMP), including recent advances in empirical ground motion predictions (e.g., the NGA relations). The framework also allows for numerical (3D) ground motion computations for specific, detailed scenario analyses. Unlike NSHMP ground motions, for ESP scenarios, local rock and soil site conditions and commensurate shaking amplifications are applied based on detailed Vs30 maps where available or based on topographic slope as a proxy. The scenario event set is comprised primarily by selection from the NSHMP events, though custom events are also allowed based on coordination of the ESP team with regional coordinators, seismic hazard experts, seismic network operators, and response coordinators. The event set will be harmonized with existing and future scenario earthquake events produced regionally or by other researchers. The event list includes approximate 200 earthquakes in CA, 100 in NV, dozens in each of NM, UT, WY, and a smaller number in other regions. Systematic output will include all standard ShakeMap products, including HAZUS input, GIS, KML, and XML files used for visualization, loss estimation, ShakeCast, PAGER, and for other systems. All products will be

  4. Effect of the Wenchuan earthquake in China on hemodynamically unstable ventricular tachyarrhythmia in hospitalized patients.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao Qiang; Chen, Mao; Yang, Qing; Yan, Shao Di; Huang, De Jia

    2009-04-01

    Earthquake may increase the risk of hemodynamically unstable ventricular tachyarrhythmias (HUSVTs). However, it was unclear how these arrhythmias were triggered during the period of earthquake. Medical records of patients in the Cardiovascular (CV) Department of West China Hospital, Chengdu, Sichuan, China, during the month after the Wenchuan earthquake and the 2 control periods (1 month before the earthquake and April 12 through July 11, 2007) were reviewed. The HUSVT event rate/10,000 person-days was higher during the month after the earthquake than during the 2 control periods (67 events/10,000 person-days vs 7 and 14 events/10,000 person-days; p = 0.000006 and p = 0.0004, respectively). Most HUSVT events in the earthquake month occurred in afternoon hours, consistent with the temporal trend of strong seismic activities and different from the pattern of diurnal distribution of HUSVT events occurring in the control periods. In the subpopulation consisting of patients admitted to the CV Department before the earthquake who continued to be treated the CV Department during the earthquake period, all HUSVT events occurred during the interval after the earthquake in comparison to no HUSVT event during the interval before the earthquake. Hypokalemia without identifiable cause, acute myocardial ischemia, and heart failure without evidence of ischemia were associated with HUSVT events in the earthquake month. In conclusion, the earthquake and its aftershocks could trigger the occurrence of HUSVT events in hospitalized patients with heart disease. PMID:19327429

  5. A fluid-driven earthquake swarm on the margin of the Yellowstone caldera

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shelly, David R.; Hill, David P.; Massin, Frederick; Farrell, Jamie; Smith, Robert B.; Taira, Taka'aki

    2013-01-01

    Over the past several decades, the Yellowstone caldera has experienced frequent earthquake swarms and repeated cycles of uplift and subsidence, reflecting dynamic volcanic and tectonic processes. Here, we examine the detailed spatial-temporal evolution of the 2010 Madison Plateau swarm, which occurred near the northwest boundary of the Yellowstone caldera. To fully explore the evolution of the swarm, we integrated procedures for seismic waveform-based earthquake detection with precise double-difference relative relocation. Using cross-correlation of continuous seismic data and waveform templates constructed from cataloged events, we detected and precisely located 8710 earthquakes during the three-week swarm, nearly four times the number of events included in the standard catalog. This high-resolution analysis reveals distinct migration of earthquake activity over the course of the swarm. The swarm initiated abruptly on January 17, 2010 at about 10 km depth and expanded dramatically outward (both shallower and deeper) over time, primarily along a NNW-striking, ~55º ENE-dipping structure. To explain these characteristics, we hypothesize that the swarm was triggered by the rupture of a zone of confined high-pressure aqueous fluids into a pre-existing crustal fault system, prompting release of accumulated stress. The high-pressure fluid injection may have been accommodated by hybrid shear and dilatational failure, as is commonly observed in exhumed hydrothermally affected fault zones. This process has likely occurred repeatedly in Yellowstone as aqueous fluids exsolved from magma migrate into the brittle crust, and it may be a key element in the observed cycles of caldera uplift and subsidence.

  6. Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Y. Y.; Jackson, D. D.

    2010-06-01

    We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.

  7. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed

    Sykes, L R

    1996-04-30

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. PMID:11607658

  8. Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Sykes, L R

    1996-01-01

    Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study. Images Fig. 1 PMID:11607658

  9. Can we control earthquakes?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raleigh, B.

    1977-01-01

    In 1966, it was discovered that high pressure injection of industrial waste fluids into the subsurface near Denver, Colo., was triggering earthquakes. While this was disturbing at the time, it was also exciting because there was immediate speculation that here at last was a mechanism to control earthquakes.  

  10. Earthquake history of Texas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    von Hake, C. A.

    1977-01-01

    Seventeen earthquakes, intensity V or greater, have centered in Texas since 1882, when the first shock was reported. The strongest earthquake, a maximum intensity VIII, was in western Texas in 1931 and was felt over 1 165 000 km 2. Three shocks in the Panhandle region in 1925, 1936, and 1943 were widely felt. 

  11. Earthquake research in China

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Raleigh, B.

    1977-01-01

    The prediction of the Haicheng earthquake was an extraordinary achievement by the geophysical workers of the People's Republic of China, whose national program in earthquake reserach was less than 10 years old at the time. To study the background to this prediction, a delgation of 10 U.S scientists, which I led, visited China in June 1976. 

  12. Retrospective stress-forecasting of earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Yuan; Crampin, Stuart

    2015-04-01

    Observations of changes in azimuthally varying shear-wave splitting (SWS) above swarms of small earthquakes monitor stress-induced changes to the stress-aligned vertical microcracks pervading the upper crust, lower crust, and uppermost ~400km of the mantle. (The microcracks are intergranular films of hydrolysed melt in the mantle.) Earthquakes release stress, and an appropriate amount of stress for the relevant magnitude must accumulate before each event. Iceland is on an extension of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, where two transform zones, uniquely run onshore. These onshore transform zones provide semi-continuous swarms of small earthquakes, which are the only place worldwide where SWS can be routinely monitored. Elsewhere SWS must be monitored above temporally-active occasional swarms of small earthquakes, or in infrequent SKS and other teleseismic reflections from the mantle. Observations of changes in SWS time-delays are attributed to stress-induced changes in crack aspect-ratios allowing stress-accumulation and stress-relaxation to be identified. Monitoring SWS in SW Iceland in 1988, stress-accumulation before an impending earthquake was recognised and emails were exchanged between the University of Edinburgh (EU) and the Iceland Meteorological Office (IMO). On 10th November 1988, EU emailed IMO that a M5 earthquake could occur soon on a seismically-active fault plane where seismicity was still continuing following a M5.1 earthquake six-months earlier. Three-days later, IMO emailed EU that a M5 earthquake had just occurred on the specified fault-plane. We suggest this is a successful earthquake stress-forecast, where we refer to the procedure as stress-forecasting earthquakes as opposed to predicting or forecasting to emphasise the different formalism. Lack of funds has prevented us monitoring SWS on Iceland seismograms, however, we have identified similar characteristic behaviour of SWS time-delays above swarms of small earthquakes which have enabled us to

  13. Modeling earthquake dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charpentier, Arthur; Durand, Marilou

    2015-07-01

    In this paper, we investigate questions arising in Parsons and Geist (Bull Seismol Soc Am 102:1-11, 2012). Pseudo causal models connecting magnitudes and waiting times are considered, through generalized regression. We do use conditional model (magnitude given previous waiting time, and conversely) as an extension to joint distribution model described in Nikoloulopoulos and Karlis (Environmetrics 19: 251-269, 2008). On the one hand, we fit a Pareto distribution for earthquake magnitudes, where the tail index is a function of waiting time following previous earthquake; on the other hand, waiting times are modeled using a Gamma or a Weibull distribution, where parameters are functions of the magnitude of the previous earthquake. We use those two models, alternatively, to generate the dynamics of earthquake occurrence, and to estimate the probability of occurrence of several earthquakes within a year or a decade.

  14. Turkish Compulsory Earthquake Insurance and "Istanbul Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durukal, E.; Sesetyan, K.; Erdik, M.

    2009-04-01

    The city of Istanbul will likely experience substantial direct and indirect losses as a result of a future large (M=7+) earthquake with an annual probability of occurrence of about 2%. This paper dwells on the expected building losses in terms of probable maximum and average annualized losses and discusses the results from the perspective of the compulsory earthquake insurance scheme operational in the country. The TCIP system is essentially designed to operate in Turkey with sufficient penetration to enable the accumulation of funds in the pool. Today, with only 20% national penetration, and about approximately one-half of all policies in highly earthquake prone areas (one-third in Istanbul) the system exhibits signs of adverse selection, inadequate premium structure and insufficient funding. Our findings indicate that the national compulsory earthquake insurance pool in Turkey will face difficulties in covering incurring building losses in Istanbul in the occurrence of a large earthquake. The annualized earthquake losses in Istanbul are between 140-300 million. Even if we assume that the deductible is raised to 15%, the earthquake losses that need to be paid after a large earthquake in Istanbul will be at about 2.5 Billion, somewhat above the current capacity of the TCIP. Thus, a modification to the system for the insured in Istanbul (or Marmara region) is necessary. This may mean an increase in the premia and deductible rates, purchase of larger re-insurance covers and development of a claim processing system. Also, to avoid adverse selection, the penetration rates elsewhere in Turkey need to be increased substantially. A better model would be introduction of parametric insurance for Istanbul. By such a model the losses will not be indemnified, however will be directly calculated on the basis of indexed ground motion levels and damages. The immediate improvement of a parametric insurance model over the existing one will be the elimination of the claim processing

  15. Mental health training experiences among Haitian healthcare workers post-earthquake 2010

    PubMed Central

    Cianelli, R.; Wilkinson, C.; Mitchell, E.; Anglade, D.; Nicolas, G.; Mitrani, V.; Peragallo, N.

    2014-01-01

    Background After the 2010 earthquake in Haiti, the large number of persons with major limb damage, amputations, shock, trauma, anxiety and depression placed a severe strain on mental health (MH) services. Purpose This qualitative study describes the impact and acceptability of a Mental Health Training Program (MHTP) implemented in the north of Haiti after the earthquake. Methods A total of 113 healthcare workers (HCWs) participated in a training program designed to build local MH care capacity. The training curriculum draws on literature related to MH and the impact of the Haiti earthquake. Two focus groups were conducted with 16 HCWs; discussions centred on the personal and professional impact and acceptability of the training program. Discussion Results demonstrated that the MHTP changed the HCWs’ perceptions about MH issues and provided them with the knowledge and skills to respond to growing community MH needs. Acceptability of the MHTP was related to the content covered, to the delivery mode of the content and to the cultural appropriateness of the program. Conclusions Disasters of different types will continue to occur and to impact MH in communities around the world. MH training will allow nurses to quickly and effectively respond to disasters. A coordinated emergency plan that is subject to frequent review, rehearsal and evaluation is also essential. PMID:24251943

  16. A tectonic earthquake sequence preceding the April-May 1999 eruption of Shishaldin Volcano, Alaska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moran, S.C.; Stihler, S.D.; Power, J.A.

    2002-01-01

    On 4 March 1999, a shallow ML 5.2 earthquake occurred beneath Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc. This earthquake was located 10-15 km west of Shishaldin Volcano, a large, frequently active basaltic-andesite stratovolcano. A Strombolian eruption began at Shishaldin roughly 1 month after the mainshock, culminating in a large explosive eruption on 19 April. We address the question of whether or not the eruption caused the mainshock by computing the Coulomb stress change caused by an inflating dike on fault planes oriented parallel to the mainshock focal mechanism. We found Coulomb stress increases of ???0.1 MPa in the region of the mainshock, suggesting that magma intrusion prior to the eruption could have caused the mainshock. Satellite and seismic data indicate that magma was moving upwards beneath Shishaldin well before the mainshock. indicating that, in an overall sense, the mainshock cannot be said to have caused the eruption. However, observations of changes at the volcano following the mainshock and several large aftershocks suggest that the earthquakes may, in turn, have influenced the course of the eruption.

  17. Evidence for external forcing temporal clustering of great earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khachikyan, Galina; Zhumabayev, Beibit; Toyshiev, Nursultan; Kairatkyzy, Dina; Kaldybayev, Azamat; Nurakynov, Serik

    2016-04-01

    It is shown by Bufe and Perkins [2005, BSSA, doi:10.1785/0120040110] and Shearera and Stark [2012, PNAS, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1118525109] that clustering of great earthquakes in 1950-1965 and 2004-2011 years is highly significant, with a 0.5% probability of random occurrence. Lutikov and Rogozhin [2014, Physics of the Solid Earth] reported on a similar clustering in the end of 19th - beginning of 20ty centuries as well, when strongest earthquakes occurred in Tien Shan (1889, M=8.3; and 1911, M=8.2); Alaska (1899, M=8.0); Kashgaria (1902, M=8.2); Mongolia (1905, M=8.2); San Francisco (1906, M=8.3), China(1906, M=8.3); Columbia (1906, M=8.6). Shearera and Stark [2012] have found that clustering of great earthquakes is analogous to seismic swarms that occur for a limited time. Simultaneously, they mentioned that at present no physical mechanism has been proposed to explain possible global seismicity swarms. Our results suggest that a mechanism responsible for temporal clustering of great earthquakes could be an external one related to the processes in the whole solar system including the Sun. We pay attention that the three marked periods of great earthquake clustering are related closely to the extreme phases of the recent Solar Centennial Gleissberg Cycle, which minimums occurred around of 1913 and 2008 years, and maximum - around of 1960 year. In particular, the great earthquake clustering in 1950-1965 coincides closely with the extremely high 19th eleven year solar cycle lasting from February 1954 to October 1964, while a great earthquake clustering after 2004 year coincides closely with the recent prolonged solar minimum developing after 2000 year. Also, we demonstrate that depending on the structure and composition of the lithosphere, strongest earthquakes may prefer to occur either in high or low solar activity. In particular, data analysis for 32 strongest (M=>7.0) earthquakes occurred in 1973-2014 years in the orogeny region of Eurasia, restricted by coordinates

  18. Interseismic Lithospheric Response of the Southern End of the Cascadia Subduction Zone Following the 1992 Cape Mendocino Earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vermeer, J.; Hemphill-Haley, M. A.

    2014-12-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) in the Pacific Northwest where the pacific plate is subducting beneath the North American plate may be capable of producing M 9 earthquakes. At its southern end, the CSZ terminates at the Mendocino triple junction in northern California, a region of frequent seismic activity. The 1992 M 7.1 Cape Mendocino earthquake caused up to 1.4 m of measured coseismic deformation and it is thought to have been rupture of the southern end of the CSZ. I will present static GPS monument relocation data and the positions of intertidal organisms to measure the interseismic crustal deformation in the 22 years since the 1992 event. This evidence for post- and interseismic lithospheric response may show whether the earthquake was due to rupture of the southern end of the CSZ or a subsidiary fault. Because the megathrust has higher strain rates than subsidiary faults, we expect that significant interseismic deformation should have occurred if the 1992 earthquake was on the subduction zone interface. It will also provide an estimate of whether post-seismic recovery has been occurring since that event. Although the coseismic deformation was well documented via leveling and Vertical Extent of Mortality (VEM) of sessile intertidal organisms, no post seismic work had been done to measure the interseismic deformation. This study utilizes high resolution GPS observation of established benchmarks compared with the leveling from 1992 to measure the vertical change. It also compares elevation of specific intertidal organism colonies to the elevation of living organisms following the 1992 uplift as a proxy for relative sea level change. Quantifying the interseismic deformation allows us to better understand the source of the earthquake and how the upper plate is responding to strain accumulation along the subduction zone. Significant interseismic deformation would indicate that the fault may be reloading quickly and the earthquake was likely associated with

  19. Fluid injection triggering of 2011 earthquake sequence in Oklahoma

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keranen, K. M.; Savage, H. M.; Abers, G. A.; Cochran, E. S.

    2012-12-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the United States midcontinent, with nine having moment-magnitude (Mw) ≥4.0 and five with Mw≥5.0 in 2011 alone. In parallel, wastewater injection into deep sedimentary formations has increased as unconventional oil and gas resources are developed. Injected fluids may lower normal stress on existing fault planes, and the correlation between injection wells and earthquake locations led to speculation that many 2011 earthquakes were triggered by injection. The largest earthquake potentially related to injection (Mw5.7) struck in November 2011 in central Oklahoma. Here we use aftershocks to document the fault patterns responsible for the M5.7 earthquake and a prolific sequence of related events, and use the timing and spatial correlation of the earthquakes with injection wells and subsurface structures to show that the earthquakes were likely triggered by fluid injection. The aftershock sequence details rupture along three distinct fault planes, the first of which reaches within 250 meters of active injection wells and within 1 km of the surface. This earthquake sequence began where fluids are injected at low pressure into a depleted oil reservoir bound by faults that effectively seal fluid flow. Injection into sealed compartments allows reservoir pressure to increase gradually over time, suggesting that reservoir volume, in this case, controls the triggering timescale. This process allows multi-year lags between the commencement of fluid injection and triggered earthquakes.

  20. Earthquakes and fault creep on the northern San Andreas fault

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nason, R.

    1979-01-01

    At present there is an absence of both fault creep and small earthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault, which had a magnitude 8 earthquake with 5 m of slip in 1906. The fault has apparently been dormant after the 1906 earthquake. One possibility is that the fault is 'locked' in some way and only produces great earthquakes. An alternative possibility, presented here, is that the lack of current activity on the northern San Andreas fault is because of a lack of sufficient elastic strain after the 1906 earthquake. This is indicated by geodetic measurements at Fort Ross in 1874, 1906 (post-earthquake), and 1969, which show that the strain accumulation in 1969 (69 ?? 10-6 engineering strain) was only about one-third of the strain release (rebound) in the 1906 earthquake (200 ?? 10-6 engineering strain). The large difference in seismicity before and after 1906, with many strong local earthquakes from 1836 to 1906, but only a few strong earthquakes from 1906 to 1976, also indicates a difference of elastic strain. The geologic characteristics (serpentine, fault straightness) of most of the northern San Andreas fault are very similar to the characteristics of the fault south of Hollister, where fault creep is occurring. Thus, the current absence of fault creep on the northern fault segment is probably due to a lack of sufficient elastic strain at the present time. ?? 1979.

  1. Waveform Cross-Correlation for Improved North Texas Earthquake Locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, M.; DeShon, H. R.; Oldham, H. R.; Hayward, C.

    2014-12-01

    In November 2013, a sequence of earthquakes began in Reno and Azle, TX, two communities located northwest of Fort Worth in an area of active oil and gas extraction. Only one felt earthquake had been reported within the area before the occurrence of probable injection-induced earthquakes at the Dallas-Fort Worth airport in 2008. The USGS National Earthquakes Information Center (NEIC) has reported 27 felt earthquakes in the Reno-Azle area through January 28, 2014. A temporary seismic network was installed beginning in December 2013 to acquire data to improve location and magnitude estimates and characterize the earthquake sequence. Here, we present high-resolution relative earthquake locations derived using differential time data from waveform cross-correlation. Cross-correlation is computed using the GISMO software suite and event relocation is done using double difference relocation techniques. Waveform cross-correlation of the local data indicates high (>70%) similarity between 4 major swarms of events lasting between 18 and 24 hours. These swarms are temporal zones of high event frequency; 1.4% of the time series data accounts for 42.1% of the identified local earthquakes. Local earthquakes are occurring along the Newark East Fault System, a NE-SW striking normal fault system previously thought inactive at depths between 2 and 8 km in the Ellenburger limestone formation and underlying Precambrian basement. Data analysis is ongoing and continued characterization of the associated fault will provide improved location estimates.

  2. Real-time forecasts of tomorrow's earthquakes in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gerstenberger, M.C.; Wiemer, S.; Jones, L.M.; Reasenberg, P.A.

    2005-01-01

    Despite a lack of reliable deterministic earthquake precursors, seismologists have significant predictive information about earthquake activity from an increasingly accurate understanding of the clustering properties of earthquakes. In the past 15 years, time-dependent earthquake probabilities based on a generic short-term clustering model have been made publicly available in near-real time during major earthquake sequences. These forecasts describe the probability and number of events that are, on average, likely to occur following a mainshock of a given magnitude, but are not tailored to the particular sequence at hand and contain no information about the likely locations of the aftershocks. Our model builds upon the basic principles of this generic forecast model in two ways: it recasts the forecast in terms of the probability of strong ground shaking, and it combines an existing time-independent earthquake occurrence model based on fault data and historical earthquakes with increasingly complex models describing the local time-dependent earthquake clustering. The result is a time-dependent map showing the probability of strong shaking anywhere in California within the next 24 hours. The seismic hazard modelling approach we describe provides a better understanding of time-dependent earthquake hazard, and increases its usefulness for the public, emergency planners and the media.

  3. Frequently Asked Questions about Digital Mammography

    MedlinePlus

    ... Consumer Information (MQSA) Frequently Asked Questions About Digital Mammography Share Tweet Linkedin Pin it More sharing options ... mammography exams, such as DBT? What is digital mammography? Full field digital mammography (FFDM, also known simply ...

  4. Frequently Asked Questions (Palliative Care: Conversations Matter)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Questions Frequently Asked Questions: What is pediatric palliative care? Pediatric palliative (pal-lee-uh-tiv) care is ... for patients and families. Who provides pediatric palliative care? Every palliative care team is different. The team ...

  5. Head Lice: Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  6. Head Lice: Treatment Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  7. Body Lice Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

    MedlinePlus

    ... Treatment FAQs Malathion FAQs Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ... Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Epidemiology & Risk Factors Disease Biology Diagnosis Treatment Prevention & Control Resources for Health Professionals ...

  8. Frequently Asked Questions about Genetic Disorders

    MedlinePlus

    ... used on this page Frequently Asked Questions About Genetic Disorders What are genetic disorders? A genetic disorder is a disease caused ... significant risk of developing the disease. . Geneticists group genetic disorders into three categories: Monogenetic disorders are caused ...

  9. Frequently Asked Questions about Genetic Testing

    MedlinePlus

    ... sobre las pruebas genéticas Frequently Asked Questions About Genetic Testing What is genetic testing? What can I ... find more information about genetic testing? What is genetic testing? Genetic testing uses laboratory methods to look ...

  10. Frequent patterns mining in multiple biological sequences.

    PubMed

    Chen, Ling; Liu, Wei

    2013-10-01

    Existing algorithms for mining frequent patterns in multiple biosequences may generate multiple projected databases and short candidate patterns, which can increase computation time and memory requirement. In order to overcome such shortcomings, we propose a fast and efficient algorithm for mining frequent patterns in multiple biological sequences (MSPM). We first present the concept of a primary pattern, which can be extended to form larger patterns in the sequence. To detect frequent primary patterns, a prefix tree is constructed. Based on this prefix tree, a pattern-extending approach is also presented to mine frequent patterns without producing a large number of irrelevant candidate patterns. The experimental results show that the MSPM algorithm can achieve not only faster speed, but also higher quality results as compared with other methods. PMID:24034736

  11. Women and Diabetes: Frequently Asked Questions

    MedlinePlus

    ... A A A Listen En Español Women and Diabetes: Frequently Asked Questions Why are women with diabetes ... 08-book-sabores-de-cuba.html More from diabetes.org Shopdiabetes.org: Take the Guesswork out of ...

  12. Levetiracetam: Probably Associated Diurnal Frequent Urination.

    PubMed

    Ju, Jun; Zou, Li-Ping; Shi, Xiu-Yu; Hu, Lin-Yan; Pang, Ling-Yu

    2016-01-01

    Diurnal frequent urination is a common condition in elementary school children who are especially at risk for associated somatic and behavioral problems. Levetiracetam (LEV) is a broad-spectrum antiepileptic drug that has been used in both partial and generalized seizures and less commonly adverse effects including psychiatric and behavioral problems. Diurnal frequent urination is not a well-known adverse effect of LEV. Here, we reported 2 pediatric cases with epilepsy that developed diurnal frequent urination after LEV administration. Case 1 was a 6-year-old male patient who presented urinary frequency and urgency in the daytime since the third day after LEV was given as adjunctive therapy. Symptoms increased accompanied by the raised dosage of LEV. Laboratory tests and auxiliary examinations did not found evidence of organic disease. Diurnal frequent urination due to LEV was suspected, and then the drug was discontinued. As expected, his frequency of urination returned to normal levels. Another 13-year-old female patient got similar clinical manifestations after oral LEV monotherapy and the symptoms became aggravated while in stress state. Since the most common causes of frequent micturition had been ruled out, the patient was considered to be diagnosed with LEV-associated psychogenic frequent urination. The dosage of LEV was reduced to one-third, and the frequency of urination was reduced by 60%. Both patients got the Naranjo score of 6, which indicated that LEV was a "probable" cause of diurnal frequent urination. Although a definite causal link between LEV and diurnal urinary frequency in the 2 cases remains to be established, we argue that diurnal frequent urination associated with LEV deserves clinician's attention. PMID:26938751

  13. The mass balance of earthquakes and earthquake sequences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marc, O.; Hovius, N.; Meunier, P.

    2016-04-01

    Large, compressional earthquakes cause surface uplift as well as widespread mass wasting. Knowledge of their trade-off is fragmentary. Combining a seismologically consistent model of earthquake-triggered landsliding and an analytical solution of coseismic surface displacement, we assess how the mass balance of single earthquakes and earthquake sequences depends on fault size and other geophysical parameters. We find that intermediate size earthquakes (Mw 6-7.3) may cause more erosion than uplift, controlled primarily by seismic source depth and landscape steepness, and less so by fault dip and rake. Such earthquakes can limit topographic growth, but our model indicates that both smaller and larger earthquakes (Mw < 6, Mw > 7.3) systematically cause mountain building. Earthquake sequences with a Gutenberg-Richter distribution have a greater tendency to lead to predominant erosion, than repeating earthquakes of the same magnitude, unless a fault can produce earthquakes with Mw > 8 or more.

  14. Comparative study of two tsunamigenic earthquakes in the Solomon Islands: 2015 Mw 7.0 normal-fault and 2013 Santa Cruz Mw 8.0 megathrust earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heidarzadeh, Mohammad; Harada, Tomoya; Satake, Kenji; Ishibe, Takeo; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

    2016-05-01

    The July 2015 Mw 7.0 Solomon Islands tsunamigenic earthquake occurred ~40 km north of the February 2013 Mw 8.0 Santa Cruz earthquake. The proximity of the two epicenters provided unique opportunities for a comparative study of their source mechanisms and tsunami generation. The 2013 earthquake was an interplate event having a thrust focal mechanism at a depth of 30 km while the 2015 event was a normal-fault earthquake occurring at a shallow depth of 10 km in the overriding Pacific Plate. A combined use of tsunami and teleseismic data from the 2015 event revealed the north dipping fault plane and a rupture velocity of 3.6 km/s. Stress transfer analysis revealed that the 2015 earthquake occurred in a region with increased Coulomb stress following the 2013 earthquake. Spectral deconvolution, assuming the 2015 tsunami as empirical Green's function, indicated the source periods of the 2013 Santa Cruz tsunami as 10 and 22 min.

  15. What to do given that earthquake hazard maps often fail

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stein, S.; Geller, R.; Liu, M.

    2012-04-01

    The 2011 Tohoku earthquake is another striking example - after the 2008 Wenchuan and 2010 Haiti earthquakes - of highly destructive earthquakes that occurred in areas predicted by earthquake hazard maps to have significantly lower hazard than nearby supposedly high-risk areas which have been essentially quiescent. Given the limited seismic record available and limited understanding of earthquake mechanics, hazard maps have to depend heavily on poorly constrained parameters and the mapmakers' preconceptions. These preconceptions are often incorrect. The Tohoku earthquake and its tsunami were much larger than "expected" by the mappers because of the presumed absence of such large earthquakes in the seismological record. This assumption seemed consistent with a model based on the convergence rate and age of the subducting lithosphere, which predicted at most a low M 8 earthquake. Although this model was invalidated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake, and paleotsunami deposits showed evidence of three large past earthquakes in the Tohoku region in the past 3000 years, these facts were not incorporated in the hazard mapping. The failure to anticipate the Tohoku and other recent large earthquakes suggests two changes to current hazard mapping practices. First, the uncertainties in hazard map predictions should be assessed and communicated clearly to potential users. Communication of uncertainties would make the maps more useful by letting users decide how much credence to place in the maps. Second, hazard maps should undergo objective testing to compare their predictions to those of null hypotheses based on random regional seismicity. Such testing, which is common and useful in other fields, will hopefully produce measurable improvements. There are likely, however, to be limits on how well hazard maps can ever be made due to the intrinsic variability of earthquake processes.

  16. The Lushan earthquake and the giant panda: impacts and conservation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zejun; Yuan, Shibin; Qi, Dunwu; Zhang, Mingchun

    2014-06-01

    Earthquakes not only result in a great loss of human life and property, but also have profound effects on the Earth's biodiversity. The Lushan earthquake occurred on 20 Apr 2013, with a magnitude of 7.0 and an intensity of 9.0 degrees. A distance of 17.0 km from its epicenter to the nearest distribution site of giant pandas recorded in the Third National Survey was determined. Making use of research on the Wenchuan earthquake (with a magnitude of 8.0), which occurred approximately 5 years ago, we briefly analyze the impacts of the Lushan earthquake on giant pandas and their habitat. An earthquake may interrupt ongoing behaviors of giant pandas and may also cause injury or death. In addition, an earthquake can damage conservation facilities for pandas, and result in further habitat fragmentation and degradation. However, from a historical point of view, the impacts of human activities on giant pandas and their habitat may, in fact, far outweigh those of natural disasters such as earthquakes. Measures taken to promote habitat restoration and conservation network reconstruction in earthquake-affected areas should be based on requirements of giant pandas, not those of humans. PMID:24952972

  17. Earthquakes induced by deep penetrating bombing?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balassanian, Serguei Y.

    2005-11-01

    The data of M≥5 earthquakes occurred in one year before and after 4 deep penetrating bombs in the region within 500 km and 1 000 km from the shooting site are presented. The 4 bombs are those happened in 1999 Kosovo of Yugoslavia, the 1991 Baghdad of Iraq, the 2001 Tora Bora of Afghanistan, and the 2003 Kirkuk of Iraq, respectively. The data indicate that the deep penetrating bombs may have remotely triggered some earthquakes. The deep penetrating bombs in seismically active regions should be forbidden.

  18. Role of Bioindicators In Earthquake Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zelinsky, I. P.; Melkonyan, D. V.; Astrova, N. G.

    On the basis of experimental researches of influence of sound waves on bacteria- indicators a model of earthquake is constructed. It is revealed that the growth of num- ber of bacteria depends on frequency of a sound wave, influencing on the bacterium, (the less frequency of a sound wave, the faster takes place a growth). It is shown, that at absorption of energy of a sound wave by bacterium occurs growth of concentration of isopotential lines of biodynamic field in a bacterium. This process leads to the bac- terium braking and heating. By structure of deformation of lines of a biodynamic field it is possible to predict various geodynamic processes including earthquakes.

  19. Earthquake fluctuations in wells in New Jersey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Austin, Charles R.

    1960-01-01

    New Jersey is fortunate to be situated in a region that is relatively stable, geologically. For this reason scientists believe, on the basis of the best scientific evidence available, that the chances of New Jersey experiencing a major earthquake are very small. The last major earthquake on the east coast occurred at Charleston, S. C., in 1886. Minor shocks have been felt in New Jersey, however, from time to time. Reports of dishes being rattled or even of plaster in buildings being cracked are not uncommon. These minor disturbances are generally restricted to relatively small areas.

  20. A primer to frequent itemset mining for bioinformatics.

    PubMed

    Naulaerts, Stefan; Meysman, Pieter; Bittremieux, Wout; Vu, Trung Nghia; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Goethals, Bart; Laukens, Kris

    2015-03-01

    Over the past two decades, pattern mining techniques have become an integral part of many bioinformatics solutions. Frequent itemset mining is a popular group of pattern mining techniques designed to identify elements that frequently co-occur. An archetypical example is the identification of products that often end up together in the same shopping basket in supermarket transactions. A number of algorithms have been developed to address variations of this computationally non-trivial problem. Frequent itemset mining techniques are able to efficiently capture the characteristics of (complex) data and succinctly summarize it. Owing to these and other interesting properties, these techniques have proven their value in biological data analysis. Nevertheless, information about the bioinformatics applications of these techniques remains scattered. In this primer, we introduce frequent itemset mining and their derived association rules for life scientists. We give an overview of various algorithms, and illustrate how they can be used in several real-life bioinformatics application domains. We end with a discussion of the future potential and open challenges for frequent itemset mining in the life sciences. PMID:24162173

  1. A primer to frequent itemset mining for bioinformatics

    PubMed Central

    Naulaerts, Stefan; Meysman, Pieter; Bittremieux, Wout; Vu, Trung Nghia; Vanden Berghe, Wim; Goethals, Bart

    2015-01-01

    Over the past two decades, pattern mining techniques have become an integral part of many bioinformatics solutions. Frequent itemset mining is a popular group of pattern mining techniques designed to identify elements that frequently co-occur. An archetypical example is the identification of products that often end up together in the same shopping basket in supermarket transactions. A number of algorithms have been developed to address variations of this computationally non-trivial problem. Frequent itemset mining techniques are able to efficiently capture the characteristics of (complex) data and succinctly summarize it. Owing to these and other interesting properties, these techniques have proven their value in biological data analysis. Nevertheless, information about the bioinformatics applications of these techniques remains scattered. In this primer, we introduce frequent itemset mining and their derived association rules for life scientists. We give an overview of various algorithms, and illustrate how they can be used in several real-life bioinformatics application domains. We end with a discussion of the future potential and open challenges for frequent itemset mining in the life sciences. PMID:24162173

  2. Precursors to Great Earthquakes Along the Nankai Trough; Slow Earthquakes, Non-volcanic Deep Tremor and Slow Slip

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sacks, S.; Linde, A. T.

    2007-12-01

    Just before (and during) the December 1944 Tonankai great earthquake, the Military Survey Institute of Japan carried out leveling surveys in the anticipated region of the earthquake. Mogi (1985) pointed out that large closure errors, for line segments measured on the day before and the morning of the earthquake, could be indicative of continuing tilting due to precursory slip. Before the 1946 Nankaido great earthquake there were level changes recorded by tide gauges and also large changes in water levels in wells. We have shown (Linde and Sacks 2002) that the pre-earthquake changes for both events are indicative of slow slip on the down-dip extension of the seismogenic zone, a region that can store strain energy but fails with slow slip. The coseismic slip for both earthquakes averages about 4 meters; the down-dip slow slip was determined to be about half the seismogenic value. In his most recent studies of the same area, Obara (2006) reports that small (~cm) slow slip events and non-volcanic tremor occur on the upper surface of the subducting plate. The locations for these events correspond rather closely to the areas we proposed as having slow slip precursory to the great earthquakes. Additionally the slip rate from Obara's work would result in about 2 meters being released in 100 years, the approximate return interval for the great earthquakes. This is consistent with the deficit being released as a large slow event just before those great earthquakes.

  3. Rapid estimation of earthquake loss based on instrumental seismic intensity: design and realization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Hongsheng; Chen, Lin; Zhu, Gengqing; Wang, Lin; Lin, Yanzhao; Wang, Huishan

    2013-11-01

    As a result of our ability to acquire large volumes of real-time earthquake observation data, coupled with increased computer performance, near real-time seismic instrument intensity can be obtained by using ground motion data observed by instruments and by using the appropriate spatial interpolation methods. By combining vulnerability study results from earthquake disaster research with earthquake disaster assessment models, we can estimate the losses caused by devastating earthquakes, in an attempt to provide more reliable information for earthquake emergency response and decision support. This paper analyzes the latest progress on the methods of rapid earthquake loss estimation at home and abroad. A new method involving seismic instrument intensity rapid reporting to estimate earthquake loss is proposed and the relevant software is developed. Finally, a case study using the M L4.9 earthquake that occurred in Shun-chang county, Fujian Province on March 13, 2007 is given as an example of the proposed method.

  4. Cooperative earthquake research between the United States and the People's Republic of China

    SciTech Connect

    Russ, D.P.; Johnson, L.E.

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes cooperative research by scientists of the US and the People's Republic of China (PRC) which has resulted in important new findings concerning the fundamental characteristics of earthquakes and new insight into mitigating earthquake hazards. There have been over 35 projects cooperatively sponsored by the Earthquake Studies Protocol in the past 5 years. The projects are organized into seven annexes, including investigations in earthquake prediction, intraplate faults and earthquakes, earthquake engineering and hazards investigation, deep crustal structure, rock mechanics, seismology, and data exchange. Operational earthquake prediction experiments are currently being developed at two primary sites: western Yunnan Province near the town of Xiaguan, where there are several active faults, and the northeast China plain, where the devastating 1976 Tangshan earthquake occurred.

  5. The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa Earthquake in the Context of the Earthquake Cycle in the San Francisco Bay Area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaume, S. C.

    2014-12-01

    The 2014 M 6.0 South Napa earthquake is the second M ≥ 5.5 earthquake to occur in the San Francisco Bay region since the 1989 M 7.0 Loma Prieta earthquake. This poster will examine how this earthquake fits into the earthquake history of the Bay region, which has shown considerable variation in the rate of moderate (M 5.5-6.5) earthquakes. A number of models have been developed to explain these changes in moderate earthquake rates, including the Accelerating Moment Release model (e.g., Sykes and Jaumé, Nature, 1990; Bufe and Varnes, J. Geophys. Res., 1993) and the Stress Shadow model (e.g., Harris and Simpson, J. Geophys. Res., 1998). In addition, various groups have made projections of future earthquake activity in the San Francisco Bay region, including the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (Field et al., USGS OFR, 2008) and Bebbington et al. (PAGEOPH, 2010), utilizing different physical models for earthquake occurrence. In my poster I will compare and contrast these different views of seismicity in the Bay region and where the 2014 South Napa earthquake fits into them. In particular, I will explore what these different models imply for future moderate earthquake occurrence and hazards thereof.

  6. The Challenge of Centennial Earthquakes to Improve Modern Earthquake Engineering

    SciTech Connect

    Saragoni, G. Rodolfo

    2008-07-08

    The recent commemoration of the centennial of the San Francisco and Valparaiso 1906 earthquakes has given the opportunity to reanalyze their damages from modern earthquake engineering perspective. These two earthquakes plus Messina Reggio Calabria 1908 had a strong impact in the birth and developing of earthquake engineering. The study of the seismic performance of some up today existing buildings, that survive centennial earthquakes, represent a challenge to better understand the limitations of our in use earthquake design methods. Only Valparaiso 1906 earthquake, of the three considered centennial earthquakes, has been repeated again as the Central Chile, 1985, Ms = 7.8 earthquake. In this paper a comparative study of the damage produced by 1906 and 1985 Valparaiso earthquakes is done in the neighborhood of Valparaiso harbor. In this study the only three centennial buildings of 3 stories that survived both earthquakes almost undamaged were identified. Since for 1985 earthquake accelerogram at El Almendral soil conditions as well as in rock were recoded, the vulnerability analysis of these building is done considering instrumental measurements of the demand. The study concludes that good performance of these buildings in the epicentral zone of large earthquakes can not be well explained by modern earthquake engineering methods. Therefore, it is recommended to use in the future of more suitable instrumental parameters, such as the destructiveness potential factor, to describe earthquake demand.

  7. Sun, Moon and Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolvankar, V. G.

    2013-12-01

    During a study conducted to find the effect of Earth tides on the occurrence of earthquakes, for small areas [typically 1000km X1000km] of high-seismicity regions, it was noticed that the Sun's position in terms of universal time [GMT] shows links to the sum of EMD [longitude of earthquake location - longitude of Moon's foot print on earth] and SEM [Sun-Earth-Moon angle]. This paper provides the details of this relationship after studying earthquake data for over forty high-seismicity regions of the world. It was found that over 98% of the earthquakes for these different regions, examined for the period 1973-2008, show a direct relationship between the Sun's position [GMT] and [EMD+SEM]. As the time changes from 00-24 hours, the factor [EMD+SEM] changes through 360 degree, and plotting these two variables for earthquakes from different small regions reveals a simple 45 degree straight-line relationship between them. This relationship was tested for all earthquakes and earthquake sequences for magnitude 2.0 and above. This study conclusively proves how Sun and the Moon govern all earthquakes. Fig. 12 [A+B]. The left-hand figure provides a 24-hour plot for forty consecutive days including the main event (00:58:23 on 26.12.2004, Lat.+3.30, Long+95.980, Mb 9.0, EQ count 376). The right-hand figure provides an earthquake plot for (EMD+SEM) vs GMT timings for the same data. All the 376 events including the main event faithfully follow the straight-line curve.

  8. Moment Tensor Catalogue of Important Earthquakes in Turkey and Surrounding Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalafat, D.; Kekovali, K.; Ocal, M.; Gülen, L.

    2009-12-01

    We have prepared a catalogue of fault-source parameters of important earthquakes that have occurred during the period 1938-2008 in Turkey and surrounding regions. This catalogue contains source parameters of total 738 earthquakes with M≥4.0. The source parameters of 341 recent earthquakes were calculated, and that of 397 old earthquakes were compiled from published sources. The missing parameters of old earthquakes were calculated in order to obtain a complete and integrated database. The Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI) seismic network has been improved significantly by the installation of 96 3-component, broad-band stations in recent years. This enabled the calculation of source parameters of recent 341 (M≥4.0) earthquakes that have occurred in the region. The fault plane solutions of the earthquakes were calculated using regional moment tensor inversion method (Dreger, 2002), and running under zSacWin software (Yilmazer, 2003). Thus, fault mechanism (Moment Tensor/Source Parameters) database of 738 earthquakes were compiled in a standard digital format. This catalogue can be obtained from the National Earthquake Monitoring Center of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute. Map showing the fault plane solutions contained in the catalogue for the period 1938-2008 (Kalafat et al. 2009 and other sources). The size of the focal spheres is proportional to the magnitude of the earthquake.

  9. Pre-Earthquake Unipolar Electromagnetic Pulses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scoville, J.; Freund, F.

    2013-12-01

    Transient ultralow frequency (ULF) electromagnetic (EM) emissions have been reported to occur before earthquakes [1,2]. They suggest powerful transient electric currents flowing deep in the crust [3,4]. Prior to the M=5.4 Alum Rock earthquake of Oct. 21, 2007 in California a QuakeFinder triaxial search-coil magnetometer located about 2 km from the epicenter recorded unusual unipolar pulses with the approximate shape of a half-cycle of a sine wave, reaching amplitudes up to 30 nT. The number of these unipolar pulses increased as the day of the earthquake approached. These pulses clearly originated around the hypocenter. The same pulses have since been recorded prior to several medium to moderate earthquakes in Peru, where they have been used to triangulate the location of the impending earthquakes [5]. To understand the mechanism of the unipolar pulses, we first have to address the question how single current pulses can be generated deep in the Earth's crust. Key to this question appears to be the break-up of peroxy defects in the rocks in the hypocenter as a result of the increase in tectonic stresses prior to an earthquake. We investigate the mechanism of the unipolar pulses by coupling the drift-diffusion model of semiconductor theory to Maxwell's equations, thereby producing a model describing the rock volume that generates the pulses in terms of electromagnetism and semiconductor physics. The system of equations is then solved numerically to explore the electromagnetic radiation associated with drift-diffusion currents of electron-hole pairs. [1] Sharma, A. K., P. A. V., and R. N. Haridas (2011), Investigation of ULF magnetic anomaly before moderate earthquakes, Exploration Geophysics 43, 36-46. [2] Hayakawa, M., Y. Hobara, K. Ohta, and K. Hattori (2011), The ultra-low-frequency magnetic disturbances associated with earthquakes, Earthquake Science, 24, 523-534. [3] Bortnik, J., T. E. Bleier, C. Dunson, and F. Freund (2010), Estimating the seismotelluric current

  10. Information Needs While A Disaster Is Occurring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, S. C.

    2010-12-01

    Evidence from recent earthquakes, wildfires, and debris flows in southern California indicates that many people - local officials as well as residents and visitors - lack important understanding during the time that a disaster is unfolding, a time of uncertainty and confusion. While some of the uncertainty is inherent, some could be alleviated. Physical scientists and engineers know what to expect as the event unfolds. Social scientists know how humans will react during a disaster, and how to effectively communicate the warnings or evacuation orders that may precede it. Such knowledge can improve public safety. As just a few of many examples: - Based on questions posed at numerous public talks, many individuals who practice "Drop Cover and Hold" during earthquake drills do not understand what they are protecting themselves against, and thus cannot determine what to do when an earthquake strikes and they have no cover available. Similarly, they do not know how to act during the aftershocks that follow. - The 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains put foothills communities at risk, first from the wildfire and then from debris flows. Some neighborhoods received multiple evacuation notices during a few days or months. Local officials have expressed frustration and concern about an evacuation compliance rate that is steadily dropping and is now below 50%. The debris flow danger will persist over the next 2-4 winters yet evacuation compliance may drop lower still. - On February 6, 2010, a significant rainstorm brought the threat of imminent debris flows to areas burned by the Station Fire. In one neighborhood, residents loaded their cars with important belongings then waited for indications that they should evacuate. Powerful debris flows suddenly appeared, sweeping the cars downhill and destroying both cars and belongings. Some residents did understand that rainfall intensity would control the generation of debris flows in that storm. But they didn't understand

  11. Non-double-couple earthquakes. 1. Theory

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Julian, B.R.; Miller, A.D.; Foulger, G.R.

    1998-01-01

    Historically, most quantitative seismological analyses have been based on the assumption that earthquakes are caused by shear faulting, for which the equivalent force system in an isotropic medium is a pair of force couples with no net torque (a 'double couple,' or DC). Observations of increasing quality and coverage, however, now resolve departures from the DC model for many earthquakes and find some earthquakes, especially in volcanic and geothermal areas, that have strongly non-DC mechanisms. Understanding non-DC earthquakes is important both for studying the process of faulting in detail and for identifying nonshear-faulting processes that apparently occur in some earthquakes. This paper summarizes the theory of 'moment tensor' expansions of equivalent-force systems and analyzes many possible physical non-DC earthquake processes. Contrary to long-standing assumption, sources within the Earth can sometimes have net force and torque components, described by first-rank and asymmetric second-rank moment tensors, which must be included in analyses of landslides and some volcanic phenomena. Non-DC processes that lead to conventional (symmetric second-rank) moment tensors include geometrically complex shear faulting, tensile faulting, shear faulting in an anisotropic medium, shear faulting in a heterogeneous region (e.g., near an interface), and polymorphic phase transformations. Undoubtedly, many non-DC earthquake processes remain to be discovered. Progress will be facilitated by experimental studies that use wave amplitudes, amplitude ratios, and complete waveforms in addition to wave polarities and thus avoid arbitrary assumptions such as the absence of volume changes or the temporal similarity of different moment tensor components.

  12. Earthquake engineering in Peru

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vargas, N.J

    1983-01-01

    During the last decade, earthquake engineering research in Peru has been carried out at the Catholic University of Peru and at the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera (UNI). The Geophysical Institute (IGP) under the auspices of the Organization of American States (OAS) has initiated in Peru other efforts in regional seismic hazard assessment programs with direct impact to the earthquake engineering program. Further details on these programs have been reported by L. Ocola in the Earthquake Information Bulletin, January-February 1982, vol. 14, no. 1, pp. 33-38. 

  13. AGU develops earthquake curriculum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blue, Charles

    AGU, in cooperation with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), announces the production of a new curriculum package for grades 7-12 on the engineering and geophysical aspects of earthquakes.According to Frank Ireton, AGU's precollege education manager, “Both AGU and FEMA are working to promote the understanding of earthquake processes and their impact on the built environment. We are designing a program that involves students in learning how science, mathematics, and social studies concepts can be applied to reduce earthquake hazards.”

  14. Influence of Solar Cycles on Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tavares, M.

    2011-12-01

    geological feature on earth's surface less frequently. Solar driven events include coronal mass ejections (CME) and coronal holes, which are at a maximum during the descending phase of solar activity. The tectonic are important because there is heterogeneity in the crust and the tectonic stress depends on each region. The geo-effectiveness of solar wind from a coronal hole only depends on the position of the hole relative to the Earth and for the CMEs an additional factor is their velocity. The influence of these solar events could be detected from electromagnetic variations on the ground prior the earthquakes. The goal in this research was to show the solar events influenced the earthquakes and seismologic events following some special display and also how the Sun's activity played to make earthquakes increase. This paper discussed details of this mechanism, calculations and associated factors.

  15. The December 1872 Washington state earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bakun, W.H.; Haugerud, R.A.; Hopper, M.G.; Ludwin, R.S.

    2002-01-01

    The largest historical earthquake in eastern Washington occurred on 15 December 1872. We used Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments for 12 twentieth-century earthquakes to determine attenuation relations for different regions in the Pacific Northwest. MMI attenuation for propagation paths east and west of the Cascade Mountains differs significantly only for epicentral distances greater than about 225 km. We used these attenuation relations and the MMI assignments for the 15 December 1872 earthquake to conclude that its epicentral region was east of the Cascade Mountains near Lake Chelan, Washington, and most probably near the south end of Lake Chelan. The intensity magnitude, M1, is 6.8 and moment magnitude, M, is 6.5-7.0 at the 95% confidence level.

  16. Tectonic implications of earthquake mechanisms in Svalbard

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junek, W. N.; Roman-Nieves, J. I.; Woods, M. T.

    2014-02-01

    A new model for the local structure of the Svalbard archipelago, based on joint inversion of teleseismic receiver functions and regional surface wave dispersion, is optimized for waveform simulation at near-regional distances, thus allowing a better match between synthetic and observed waveforms for local earthquakes. We have used this model to calculate a moment tensor for the Mw 6.0 event of 2008 February 21 that occurred off Spitsbergen's southeast coast, and have reconciled the regional solution with the teleseismic solution. We have also compiled moment tensor solutions for other members of the earthquake sequence, which allow us to quantify the direction of maximum horizontal stress for the region. This direction does not align with the local direction of plate motion, and the difference between the two directions indicates the importance of local stress perturbations on the earthquake process near Svalbard.

  17. Evaluating real-time air-quality data as earthquake indicator.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Yi-Tang; Huang, Jr-Chung; Tu, Jien-Yi; Engling, Guenter; Lin, Chuan-Yao; Lin, Fei-Jan; Huang, Chao-Hao

    2010-05-01

    A catastrophic earthquake, namely the 921-earthquake, occurred with a magnitude of M(L)=7.3 in Taiwan on September 21, 1999, causing severe disaster. The evaluation of real-time air-quality data, obtained by the Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (EPA), revealed a staggering increase in ambient SO(2) concentrations by more than one order of magnitude across the island several hours prior to the earthquake, particularly at background stations. The abrupt increase in SO(2) concentrations likely resulted from seismic-triggered degassing instead of air pollution. An additional case of a large earthquake (M(L)=6.8), occurring on March 31, 2002, was examined to confirm our observations of significantly enhanced SO(2) concentrations in ambient air prior to large earthquakes. The coincidence between large earthquakes and increases in trace gases during the pre-quake period (several hours) indicates the potential of employing air-quality monitoring data to forecast catastrophic earthquakes. PMID:20226499

  18. Dynamic rupture process of the great 1668 Anatolian earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kase, Yuko; Kondo, Hisao; Emre, Ömer

    2010-05-01

    The North Anatolian fault system (NAFS) gives us the well-preserved evidences of multi-segment earthquakes. During the 1939 Erzincan earthquake, surface ruptures extended along the Resadiye segment. The surface ruptures during the 1942 earthquake appeared on two segments, the eastern Niksar and the western Erbaa segments which are to the west of the Resadiye segment. On the other hand, paleoseismological evidences show that the 1668 earthquake was a single multi-segment earthquake including the Resadiye, Niksar, and Erbaa segments (Kondo et al., 2009). The fault geometry, however, does not make us imagine a single multi-segment occurring. The distance along strike and step-over width between the Resadiye and Niksar segments is 17 and 11 km, respectively. This fault discontinuity is much larger than the previously-known threshold of a multi-segment rupture, 5 km, shown in observations of historical earthquakes (Matsuda, 1990; Wesnousky, 2006) and numerical studies (Harris and Day, 1999; Kase and Kuge, 2001). In this study, we construct dynamic rupture models for the North Anatolian earthquakes based on seismological data of the 1939 and 1942 earthquakes and the present stress condition, and then we investigate possibility of a single multi-segment earthquake in agreement with the paleoseismological data of the 1668 earthquake. A fault model is assumed, based on the surface traces, hypocenter distribution and source mechanisms of the 20th century earthquakes on the NAFS. Using the source mechanism of the 1939 earthquake (McKenzie, 1972) and the stress inversion results along the NAFS (Bellier et al., 1997; Fuenzalida et al., 1997), we adopt a regional stress field that is resolved onto all fault segments. We perform preliminary simulations to determine a hydrostatic stress condition and coefficient of friction producing surface slip distribution consistent with the observed surface slips during the 1939 and 1942 earthquakes (Barka, 1996; Emre et al., 2009; Kondo et

  19. Variation of P-Wave Velocity before the Bear Valley, California, Earthquake of 24 February 1972.

    PubMed

    Robinson, R; Wesson, R L; Ellsworth, W L

    1974-06-21

    Residuals for P-wave traveltimes at a seismnograph station near Bear Valley, California, for small, precisely located local earthquakes at distances of 20 to 70 kilometers show a sharp increase of nearly 0.3 second about 2 months before a magnitude 5.0 earthquake that occurred within a few kilometers of the station. This indicates that velocity changes observed elsewhere premonitory to earthquakes, possibly related to dilatancy, occur along the central section of the San Andreas fault system. PMID:17784227

  20. Triggered earthquakes and deep well activities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nicholson, C.; Wesson, R.L.

    1992-01-01

    Earthquakes can be triggered by any significant perturbation of the hydrologic regime. In areas where potentially active faults are already close to failure, the increased pore pressure resulting from fluid injection, or, alternatively, the massive extraction of fluid or gas, can induce sufficient stress and/or strain changes that, with time, can lead to sudden catastrophic failure in a major earthquake. Injection-induced earthquakes typically result from the reduction in frictional strength along preexisting, nearby faults caused by the increased formation fluid pressure. Earthquakes associated with production appear to respond to more complex mechanisms of subsidence, crustal unloading, and poroelastic changes in response to applied strains induced by the massive withdrawal of subsurface material. As each of these different types of triggered events can occur up to several years after well activities have begun (or even several years after all well activities have stopped), this suggests that the actual triggering process may be a very complex combination of effects, particularly if both fluid extraction and injection have taken place locally. To date, more than thirty cases of earthquakes triggered by well activities can be documented throughout the United States and Canada. Based on these case histories, it is evident that, owing to preexisting stress conditions in the upper crust, certain areas tend to have higher probabilities of exhibiting such induced seismicity. ?? 1992 Birkha??user Verlag.

  1. Interseismic deformation for normal fault earthquakes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reilinger, Robert

    1987-01-01

    Comparison between the coseismic vertical deformation associated with normal fault earthquakes and permanent deformation indicated by geologic structure indicates that large deformation must occur during the period between earthquakes. When sufficient geodetic and geologic information is available it is possible to estimate the spatial character of this interseismic deformation. A case in point is the 1983 Borah Peak, Idaho earthquake. This normal fault earthquake produced roughly 5 times as much basin subsidence as it did uplift of the adjacent mountain ranges. In contrast, geophysical and geological observations show that the basin is roughly as deep as the bounding range is high. A similar normal fault event in the Basin and Range, the 1959 Hebgen Lake earthquake, was also accompanied by substantially larger subsidence than uplift. In this case, postseismic geodetic measurements show broad regional uplift with a spatial pattern which is roughly consistent with that proposed for the Borah Peak event. Modeling suggests that postseismic viscoelastic relaxation and strain accumulation in an elastic lithosphere overlying a viscoelastic asthenosphere are possible physical mechanisms to generate interseismic uplift. These mechanisms may be the contemporary expression of those processes responsible for the high elevation of the Basin and Range Province.

  2. Extending the ISC-GEM Global Earthquake Instrumental Catalogue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Di Giacomo, Domenico; Engdhal, Bob; Storchak, Dmitry; Villaseñor, Antonio; Harris, James

    2015-04-01

    After a 27-month project funded by the GEM Foundation (www.globalquakemodel.org), in January 2013 we released the ISC-GEM Global Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue (1900 2009) (www.isc.ac.uk/iscgem/index.php) as a special product to use for seismic hazard studies. The new catalogue was necessary as improved seismic hazard studies necessitate that earthquake catalogues are homogeneous (to the largest extent possible) over time in their fundamental parameters, such as location and magnitude. Due to time and resource limitation, the ISC-GEM catalogue (1900-2009) included earthquakes selected according to the following time-variable cut-off magnitudes: Ms=7.5 for earthquakes occurring before 1918; Ms=6.25 between 1918 and 1963; and Ms=5.5 from 1964 onwards. Because of the importance of having a reliable seismic input for seismic hazard studies, funding from GEM and two commercial companies in the US and UK allowed us to start working on the extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue both for earthquakes that occurred beyond 2009 and for earthquakes listed in the International Seismological Summary (ISS) which fell below the cut-off magnitude of 6.25. This extension is part of a four-year program that aims at including in the ISC-GEM catalogue large global earthquakes that occurred before the beginning of the ISC Bulletin in 1964. In this contribution we present the updated ISC GEM catalogue, which will include over 1000 more earthquakes that occurred in 2010 2011 and several hundreds more between 1950 and 1959. The catalogue extension between 1935 and 1949 is currently underway. The extension of the ISC-GEM catalogue will also be helpful for regional cross border seismic hazard studies as the ISC-GEM catalogue should be used as basis for cross-checking the consistency in location and magnitude of those earthquakes listed both in the ISC GEM global catalogue and regional catalogues.

  3. Earthquakes and Tremors Remotely Triggered by the 2011, M9.0 Japan Earthquake's Seismic Waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalez-Huizar, H.; Velasco, A. A.

    2011-12-01

    Evidence suggests that large earthquakes can trigger seismicity at large distances. The passing of seismic waves can change the stress conditions on previously over stressed regions causing the triggering of small earthquakes and tremors, this phenomenon is known as remote or dynamic triggering seismicity. Here we present the results of a global search of earthquakes and tremors potentially triggered by the surfaces waves from the 2011, M9.0 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. Global seismic networks and catalogs were used to search for instance of instantaneous triggering of earthquakes and tremors during the passing of the seismic waves, as well as for significant changes in local seismic rate after the passing of the waves at several regions of interest. Instantaneous triggering of tremor and earthquakes was observed in places as US, Taiwan, Armenia, Russia, Ecuador and the Caribbean. Important local seismic rate changes were observed in places as Mexico and the Solomon Sea. In order to have a better understanding of this phenomenon, we analyzed the seismic waves and modeled the stress changes caused by them and their relationship with the local stress where triggering occurred.

  4. Periodic slow slip triggers megathrust zone earthquakes in northeastern Japan.

    PubMed

    Uchida, Naoki; Iinuma, Takeshi; Nadeau, Robert M; Bürgmann, Roland; Hino, Ryota

    2016-01-29

    Both aseismic and seismic slip accommodate relative motion across partially coupled plate-boundary faults. In northeastern Japan, aseismic slip occurs in the form of decelerating afterslip after large interplate earthquakes and as relatively steady slip on uncoupled areas of the subduction thrust. Here we report on a previously unrecognized quasi-periodic slow-slip behavior that is widespread in the megathrust zone. The repeat intervals of the slow slip range from 1 to 6 years and often coincide with or precede clusters of large [magnitude (M) ≥ 5] earthquakes, including the 2011 M 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake. These results suggest that inherently periodic slow-slip events result in periodic stress perturbations and modulate the occurrence time of larger earthquakes. The periodicity in the slow-slip rate has the potential to help refine time-dependent earthquake forecasts. PMID:26823425

  5. Intraplate earthquakes and the state of stress in oceanic lithosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bergman, Eric A.

    1986-01-01

    The dominant sources of stress relieved in oceanic intraplate earthquakes are investigated to examine the usefulness of earthquakes as indicators of stress orientation. The primary data for this investigation are the detailed source studies of 58 of the largest of these events, performed with a body-waveform inversion technique of Nabelek (1984). The relationship between the earthquakes and the intraplate stress fields was investigated by studying, the rate of seismic moment release as a function of age, the source mechanisms and tectonic associations of larger events, and the depth-dependence of various source parameters. The results indicate that the earthquake focal mechanisms are empirically reliable indicators of stress, probably reflecting the fact that an earthquake will occur most readily on a fault plane oriented in such a way that the resolved shear stress is maximized while the normal stress across the fault, is minimized.

  6. Seismicity anomalies of the 2003 Bam, Iran earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ashtari Jafari, Mohammad

    2012-08-01

    The Bam earthquake occurred in an area without any historically recorded major earthquake. Based on active tectonics and CMT solutions the area is under the influence of shortening and right-lateral strike-slip faulting. Seismicity is of a shallow crustal type which is mainly distributed within the Koohbanan-Golbaf, Lakarkooh-Shahdad-Gowk fault systems and the terminal sections of Zagros. In order to detect temporal seismicity anomalies before this earthquake we compiled a catalog from the ISC events and then analyzed it for the magnitude of completeness. After declustering this catalog, changes in seismicity were assessed by the z-value test. The temporal variations indicate a relative decrease in z-value before the Bam earthquake. Additional to seismic quiescence and decrease in b-value before the main shock there are pieces of evidence corresponding to increase in triggered background seismicity after this earthquake.

  7. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-12-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data.

  8. Oklahoma’s recent earthquakes and saltwater disposal

    PubMed Central

    Walsh, F. Rall; Zoback, Mark D.

    2015-01-01

    Over the past 5 years, parts of Oklahoma have experienced marked increases in the number of small- to moderate-sized earthquakes. In three study areas that encompass the vast majority of the recent seismicity, we show that the increases in seismicity follow 5- to 10-fold increases in the rates of saltwater disposal. Adjacent areas where there has been relatively little saltwater disposal have had comparatively few recent earthquakes. In the areas of seismic activity, the saltwater disposal principally comes from “produced” water, saline pore water that is coproduced with oil and then injected into deeper sedimentary formations. These formations appear to be in hydraulic communication with potentially active faults in crystalline basement, where nearly all the earthquakes are occurring. Although most of the recent earthquakes have posed little danger to the public, the possibility of triggering damaging earthquakes on potentially active basement faults cannot be discounted. PMID:26601200

  9. Real-time earthquake monitoring using a search engine method

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Jie; Zhang, Haijiang; Chen, Enhong; Zheng, Yi; Kuang, Wenhuan; Zhang, Xiong

    2014-01-01

    When an earthquake occurs, seismologists want to use recorded seismograms to infer its location, magnitude and source-focal mechanism as quickly as possible. If such information could be determined immediately, timely evacuations and emergency actions could be undertaken to mitigate earthquake damage. Current advanced methods can report the initial location and magnitude of an earthquake within a few seconds, but estimating the source-focal mechanism may require minutes to hours. Here we present an earthquake search engine, similar to a web search engine, that we developed by applying a computer fast search method to a large seismogram database to find waveforms that best fit the input data. Our method is several thousand times faster than an exact search. For an Mw 5.9 earthquake on 8 March 2012 in Xinjiang, China, the search engine can infer the earthquake’s parameters in <1 s after receiving the long-period surface wave data. PMID:25472861

  10. Nonlinear processes in earthquakes

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, E.M.; Frohlich, C.

    1998-12-31

    This is the final report of a one-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). Three-dimensional, elastic-wave-propagation calculations were performed to define the effects of near-source geologic structure on the degree to which seismic signals produced by earthquakes resemble {open_quotes}non-double-couple{close_quotes} sources. Signals from sources embedded in a subducting slab showed significant phase and amplitude differences compared with a {open_quotes}no-slab{close_quotes} case. Modifications to the LANL elastic-wave propagation code enabled improved simulations of path effects on earthquake and explosion signals. These simulations demonstrate that near-source, shallow, low-velocity basins can introduce earthquake-like features into explosion signatures through conversion of compressive (P-wave) energy to shear (S- and R-wave) modes. Earthquake sources simulated to date do not show significant modifications.

  11. Forecasting southern california earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Raleigh, C B; Sieh, K; Sykes, L R; Anderson, D L

    1982-09-17

    Since 1978 and 1979, California has had a significantly higher frequency of moderate to large earthquakes than in the preceding 25 years. In the past such periods have also been associated with major destructive earthquakes, of magnitude 7 or greater, and the annual probability of occurrence of such an event is now 13 percent in California. The increase in seismicity is associated with a marked deviation in the pattern of strain accumulation, a correlation that is physically plausible. Although great earthquakes (magnitude greater than 7.5) are too infrequent to have clear associations with any pattern of seismicity that is now observed, the San Andreas fault in southern California has accumulated sufficient potential displacement since the last rupture in 1857 to generate a great earthquake along part or all of its length. PMID:17740956

  12. To capture an earthquake

    SciTech Connect

    Ellsworth, W.L. )

    1990-11-01

    An earthquake model based on the theory of plate tectonics is presented. It is assumed that the plates behave elastically in response to slow, steady motions and the strains concentrate within the boundary zone between the plates. When the accumulated stresses exceed the bearing capacity of the rocks, the rocks break, producing an earthquake and releasing the accumulated stresses. As the steady movement of the plates continues, strain begins to reaccumulate. The cycle of strain accumulation and release is modeled using the motion of a block, pulled across a rough surface by a spring. A model earthquake can be predicted by taking into account a precursory event or the peak spring force prior to slip as measured in previous cycles. The model can be applied to faults, e.g., the San Andreas fault, if the past earthquake history of the fault and the rate of strain accumulation are known.

  13. The recent tectonic stress districts and strong earthquakes in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, F.; Zhang, H.

    2010-12-01

    According to the stress state and force source character, the recent tectonic stress field of China is preliminary divided into four classes. Among them, there are two first order districts, four second order districts, five third order districts and twenty-six fourth order districts. By analyzing those tectonic stress districts and strong earthquakes, the close relation between them is mainly summarized as follows: (1) The boundary of stress districts especially the first or second order boundary controlled by the interaction of tectonic plates has strong earthquakes very easily and frequently. (2) Stress districts with stress direction, regime type and stress value transformation are concentrative zones of strong earthquakes. (3) Stress districts with local stress differentiation but in the homogeneous stress background are the places where strong earthquakes are rela-tively concentrated. On the basis of these research work, we discuss the present dynamic environment in China from force source and plates movement.

  14. Potentially induced earthquakes in Oklahoma, USA: links between wastewater injection and the 2011 Mw 5.7 earthquake sequence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Keranen, Katie M.; Savage, Heather M.; Abers, Geoffrey A.; Cochran, Elizabeth S.

    2013-01-01

    Significant earthquakes are increasingly occurring within the continental interior of the United States, including five of moment magnitude (Mw) ≥ 5.0 in 2011 alone. Concurrently, the volume of fluid injected into the subsurface related to the production of unconventional resources continues to rise. Here we identify the largest earthquake potentially related to injection, an Mw 5.7 earthquake in November 2011 in Oklahoma. The earthquake was felt in at least 17 states and caused damage in the epicentral region. It occurred in a sequence, with 2 earthquakes of Mw 5.0 and a prolific sequence of aftershocks. We use the aftershocks to illuminate the faults that ruptured in the sequence, and show that the tip of the initial rupture plane is within ~200 m of active injection wells and within ~1 km of the surface; 30% of early aftershocks occur within the sedimentary section. Subsurface data indicate that fluid was injected into effectively sealed compartments, and we interpret that a net fluid volume increase after 18 yr of injection lowered effective stress on reservoir-bounding faults. Significantly, this case indicates that decades-long lags between the commencement of fluid injection and the onset of induced earthquakes are possible, and modifies our common criteria for fluid-induced events. The progressive rupture of three fault planes in this sequence suggests that stress changes from the initial rupture triggered the successive earthquakes, including one larger than the first.

  15. Response of a 14-story Anchorage, Alaska, building in 2002 to two close earthquakes and two distant Denali fault earthquakes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, M.

    2004-01-01

    The recorded responses of an Anchorage, Alaska, building during four significant earthquakes that occurred in 2002 are studied. Two earthquakes, including the 3 November 2002 M7.9 Denali fault earthquake, with epicenters approximately 275 km from the building, generated long trains of long-period (>1 s) surface waves. The other two smaller earthquakes occurred at subcrustal depths practically beneath Anchorage and produced higher frequency motions. These two pairs of earthquakes have different impacts on the response of the building. Higher modes are more pronounced in the building response during the smaller nearby events. The building responses indicate that the close-coupling of translational and torsional modes causes a significant beating effect. It is also possible that there is some resonance occurring due to the site frequency being close to the structural frequency. Identification of dynamic characteristics and behavior of buildings can provide important lessons for future earthquake-resistant designs and retrofit of existing buildings. ?? 2004, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  16. Antimicrobial susceptibility of clinical isolates from earthquake victims in Wenchuan.

    PubMed

    Kang, M; Xie, Y; Mintao, C; Chen, Z; Chen, H; Fan, H; Chen, W; Guo, X

    2009-01-01

    On 12 May 2008, an earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale struck Wenchuan County, Sichuan, China. Between 12 May and 11 June, 1823 victims were hospitalized in West China Hospital. These patients were severely injured, and most of their wounds were contaminated. Here, the results of bacteriological identification and antibiotic susceptibility testing of 725 non-duplicate isolates from earthquake victims are presented. Gram-negative bacilli were most frequently isolated (71.3%). Only 18.9% of isolates were Gram-positive bacteria; Candida spp. accounted for 9.7%, and Gram-negative cocci for 0.1%. After anaerobic culture, four Clostridium sordellii strains and one Clostridium bifermentans strain were isolated from deep wounds. Specimen culture from earthquake victims revealed a spectrum of pathogens and antibiotic susceptibilities that was different from that usually encountered in West China Hospital, especially concerning methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producers, and multidrug-resistant (MDR) non-fermenting Gram-negative bacilli. The pathophysiology of the injuries in earthquake victims was different from that in the patients who were not earthquake victims. A combination of environmental bacteria with a high proportion of Gram-negative bacteria was often observed in the earthquake victims. Approximately 26% of all earthquake victims were shown to be carriers of MDR microorganisms. Therefore, appropriate microbiological assessment upon admission, and identification of patients to be put in quarantine, is of paramount importance. PMID:19220339

  17. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    . The culminating activity is for students to "design" an early warning system that will protect their school from nearby earthquakes. The better they design the system, the safer they will be. Each team of students receives a map of faults in the area and possible sites for real-time seismometer installation. Given a fixed budget, they must select the best sites for detecting a likely earthquake. After selecting their locations, teams face-off two-by-two in a tournament of simulated earthquakes. We created animations of a few simulated earthquakes for our institution and have plans to build a web-based version that will allow others to customize the location to their own location and facilitate the competition between teams. Earthquake early warning is both cutting-edge and has huge societal benefits. Instead of teaching our students how to locate epicenters after an earthquake has occurred, we can teach the same content standards while showing them that earthquake science can really save lives.

  18. Earthquake education in California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    MacCabe, M. P.

    1980-01-01

    In a survey of community response to the earthquake threat in southern California, Ralph Turner and his colleagues in the Department of Sociology at the University of California, Los Angeles, found that the public very definitely wants to be educated about the kinds of problems and hazards they can expect during and after a damaging earthquake; and they also want to know how they can prepare themselves to minimize their vulnerability. Decisionmakers, too, are recognizing this new wave of public concern. 

  19. Cluster analysis of earthquake swarms - results from West Bohemia and South-West Iceland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Čermáková, Hana; Cesca, Simone; Horálek, Josef

    2015-04-01

    investigated which indicates that in all such different tectonic environments the swarms activate a number of smaller fault segments rather than one main fault. The time clustering discovered several separate phases in time which are characterized by abrupt increase of activity in a view of number of events and their magnitude. In case of WB, both 2000 and 2008 swarms show the same pattern. One significant and several smaller clusters appeared by processing of locations. From the analysis based on focal mechanisms we obtained three main mechanisms (oblique-normal, oblique-thrust and thrust faulting). For 2008 we got one additional mechanism appearing on a fault segment which was not activated in 2000 (thrust faulting with different strike). Strikes and dips of the focal mechanisms correspond to geometry of fault segments which are identified by the clustering method applied to the locations. The main fault segment is characterized by the most frequent mechanism (oblique-normal with strike and dip of about 170° and 80°). However, in its northern part, on its edge and sometime even inside the segment focal mechanisms differ significantly. This supports an idea that earthquake swarms occur on short fault segments with heterogeneous stress. References: Cesca S, Sen AT, Dahm T (2014) "Seismicity monitoring by cluster analysis of moment tensors", Geophys. J. Int., 196 (3):1813-1826

  20. Slow earthquakes associated with fault healing on a serpentinized plate interface

    PubMed Central

    Katayama, Ikuo; Iwata, Mutsumi; Okazaki, Keishi; Hirauchi, Ken-ichi

    2013-01-01

    Slow earthquakes that occur at subduction zones are distinct from regular earthquakes in terms of their slip behavior. We consider this difference to relate to localized hydration reactions at the plate interface that influence the frictional properties. The results of laboratory friction experiments indicate that simulated serpentine faults are characterized by a low healing rate and large slip-weakening distance compared with unaltered dry fault patches. These results are consistent with the slip mechanism of slow earthquakes, indicating that a locally serpentinized plate interface could trigger slow earthquakes, assisted by pore pressure build-up, whereas unaltered dry patches that remain strongly coupled are potential sites of regular earthquakes.

  1. Predicting earthquakes along the major plate tectonic boundaries in the Pacific

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Spall, H.

    1978-01-01

    In an article in the last issue of the Earthquake Information Bulletin ("Earthquakes and Plate Tectonics," by Henry Spall), we saw how 90 percent of the world's earthquakes occur at the margins of the Earth's major crustal plates. however, when we look at the distribution of earthquakes in detail, we see that a number of nearly aseismic regions, or seismic gaps, can be found along the present-day plate boundaries. Why is this? And can we regard these areas as being more likely to be the sites for future larger earthquakes than those segments of the plate boundaries that have ruptured recently. 

  2. Fundamental questions of earthquake statistics, source behavior, and the estimation of earthquake probabilities from possible foreshocks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, Andrew J.

    2012-01-01

    Estimates of the probability that an ML 4.8 earthquake, which occurred near the southern end of the San Andreas fault on 24 March 2009, would be followed by an M 7 mainshock over the following three days vary from 0.0009 using a Gutenberg–Richter model of aftershock statistics (Reasenberg and Jones, 1989) to 0.04 using a statistical model of foreshock behavior and long‐term estimates of large earthquake probabilities, including characteristic earthquakes (Agnew and Jones, 1991). I demonstrate that the disparity between the existing approaches depends on whether or not they conform to Gutenberg–Richter behavior. While Gutenberg–Richter behavior is well established over large regions, it could be violated on individual faults if they have characteristic earthquakes or over small areas if the spatial distribution of large‐event nucleations is disproportional to the rate of smaller events. I develop a new form of the aftershock model that includes characteristic behavior and combines the features of both models. This new model and the older foreshock model yield the same results when given the same inputs, but the new model has the advantage of producing probabilities for events of all magnitudes, rather than just for events larger than the initial one. Compared with the aftershock model, the new model has the advantage of taking into account long‐term earthquake probability models. Using consistent parameters, the probability of an M 7 mainshock on the southernmost San Andreas fault is 0.0001 for three days from long‐term models and the clustering probabilities following the ML 4.8 event are 0.00035 for a Gutenberg–Richter distribution and 0.013 for a characteristic‐earthquake magnitude–frequency distribution. Our decisions about the existence of characteristic earthquakes and how large earthquakes nucleate have a first‐order effect on the probabilities obtained from short‐term clustering models for these large events.

  3. Postseismic relaxation following the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake, southern California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Savage, J.C.; Svarc, J.L.

    2010-01-01

    We have reexamined the postearthquake deformation of a 65 km long linear array of 11 geodetic monuments extending north–south across the rupture (reverse slip on a blind thrust dipping 40°S–20°W) associated with the 1994 Mw6.7 Northridge earthquake. That array was surveyed frequently in the interval from 4 to 2650 days after the earthquake. The velocity of each of the monuments over the interval 100–2650 days postearthquake appears to be constant. Moreover, the profile of those velocities along the length of the array is very similar to a preearthquake velocity profile for a nearby, similarly oriented array. We take this to indicate that significant postseismic relaxation is evident only in the first 100 days postseismic and that the subsequent linear trend is typical of the interseismic interval. The postseismic relaxation (postseismic displacement less displacement that would have occurred at the preseismic velocity) is found to be almost wholly parallel (N70°W) to the nearby (40 km) San Andreas Fault with only negligible relaxation in the direction of coseismic slip (N20°E) on the Northridge rupture. We suggest that the N70°W relaxation is caused by aseismic, right-lateral slip at depth on the San Andreas Fault, excess slip presumably triggered by the Northridge rupture. Finally, using the Dieterich (1994) stress-seismicity relation, we show that return to the preseismic deformation rate within 100 days following the earthquake could be consistent with the cumulative number of M > 2.5 earthquakes observed following the main shock.

  4. Microbiological study of pathogenic bacteria isolated from paediatric wound infections following the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.

    PubMed

    Ran, Ying-Chun; Ao, Xiao-Xiao; Liu, Lan; Fu, Yi-Long; Tuo, Hui; Xu, Feng

    2010-05-01

    On 12 May 2008, the Wenchuan earthquake struck in Sichuan, China. Within 1 month after the earthquake, 98 injured children were admitted to the Children's Hospital of Chongqing Medical University. According to clinical manifestations, 50 children were diagnosed with wound infections. Wound secretions were cultured for bacteria. Pathogen distribution and drug resistance were analyzed. A total of 99 pathogens were isolated; 16 (16%) were Gram-positive bacteria and 81 (82%) were Gram-negative bacteria. The distribution of pathogens isolated within 1 month after the earthquake was different to the distribution of pathogens in 546 general hospitalized cases in the y before the earthquake. The pathogens most frequently isolated 1 month after the earthquake were Acinetobacter baumannii (27%), Enterobacter cloacae (18%) and Pseudomonas aeruginosa (13%). The pathogens most frequently isolated in the y prior to the earthquake were Escherichia coli (27%), Staphylococcus aureus (23%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (9%). The rate of isolated drug-resistant bacteria was higher in the earthquake cases than in the general hospitalized cases. In the cases injured in the earthquake, the rates of isolation of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus and extended-spectrum beta-lactamase-producing E. cloacae, E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae were higher than in the cases from before the earthquake. Multidrug-resistant and pandrug-resistant A. baumannii were isolated at a higher rate in cases after the earthquake than in those before the earthquake. These changes in the spectrum of pathogens and in the drug resistance of the pathogens isolated following an earthquake will provide the basis for emergency treatment after earthquakes. PMID:20095936

  5. Injection-induced earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Ellsworth, William L

    2013-07-12

    Earthquakes in unusual locations have become an important topic of discussion in both North America and Europe, owing to the concern that industrial activity could cause damaging earthquakes. It has long been understood that earthquakes can be induced by impoundment of reservoirs, surface and underground mining, withdrawal of fluids and gas from the subsurface, and injection of fluids into underground formations. Injection-induced earthquakes have, in particular, become a focus of discussion as the application of hydraulic fracturing to tight shale formations is enabling the production of oil and gas from previously unproductive formations. Earthquakes can be induced as part of the process to stimulate the production from tight shale formations, or by disposal of wastewater associated with stimulation and production. Here, I review recent seismic activity that may be associated with industrial activity, with a focus on the disposal of wastewater by injection in deep wells; assess the scientific understanding of induced earthquakes; and discuss the key scientific challenges to be met for assessing this hazard. PMID:23846903

  6. Aftershock process of Chu earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emanov, Alexey; Leskova, Ekaterina; Emanov, Aleksandr; Kolesnikov, Yury; Fateyev, Aleksandr

    2010-05-01

    Chu earthquake of 27.09.2003, Ms =7.3 occurred in joint zone of Chagan-Uzun raised block with North-Chu ridge. Epicentral zone cover a series of contrast geological structures of Mountain Altai (two hollows: Chu and Kurai, devided by Chagan-Uzun block, and mountain range, franking them,: Nort-Chu, Kurai, South-Chu, Aigulak). The seismic process occurred in zone of expressive block structure, and this is embodied in its space-time structure. The high accuracy of hypocental construction in epicenral zone of Chu earthquake is provided by local network of seismological stations (fifteen stations) and experiments with temporary station network in this zone (20-50 stations). The first stage of aftershock process formation is connected with Chagan-Uzun block. The second large aftershock of 01.10.2003 changes cardinally spatial pattern of aftershock process. Instead of round area an elongate aftershock area is formed along boundary of Kurai hollow with North-Chu ridge. In the following process spread out in north-west angle of Chu hollow. Linear elongate aftershock area is subdivided into four elements. The north-west element has form of horse tail, starting as a line in area of outlet of Aktru River in Kurai hollow, and ramifies short of settlement Chibit. Slope of plane of aftershocks for this element is determined from hollow under North-Chu ridge. The seismic process is going not along boundary hollow-mountain ridge, but displaced in hollow side. The central part of element - this are mainly horizontal shift faults, and outlying districts have pronounced vertical components of displacements. The second element stretches from Aktru River to Chagan-Uzun block. Earthquake epicenters in plane make two curved parallel lines. In the angle of Chagan-Uzun block are ceiling amount of uplifts. The third element is the boundary of Chagan-Uzun block with North-Chu ridge. The forth element is formed by aftershocks, leaving in range of Chu hollow. Areal dispersal of earthquakes is

  7. Statistical distributions of earthquake numbers: consequence of branching process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kagan, Yan Y.

    2010-03-01

    We discuss various statistical distributions of earthquake numbers. Previously, we derived several discrete distributions to describe earthquake numbers for the branching model of earthquake occurrence: these distributions are the Poisson, geometric, logarithmic and the negative binomial (NBD). The theoretical model is the `birth and immigration' population process. The first three distributions above can be considered special cases of the NBD. In particular, a point branching process along the magnitude (or log seismic moment) axis with independent events (immigrants) explains the magnitude/moment-frequency relation and the NBD of earthquake counts in large time/space windows, as well as the dependence of the NBD parameters on the magnitude threshold (magnitude of an earthquake catalogue completeness). We discuss applying these distributions, especially the NBD, to approximate event numbers in earthquake catalogues. There are many different representations of the NBD. Most can be traced either to the Pascal distribution or to the mixture of the Poisson distribution with the gamma law. We discuss advantages and drawbacks of both representations for statistical analysis of earthquake catalogues. We also consider applying the NBD to earthquake forecasts and describe the limits of the application for the given equations. In contrast to the one-parameter Poisson distribution so widely used to describe earthquake occurrence, the NBD has two parameters. The second parameter can be used to characterize clustering or overdispersion of a process. We determine the parameter values and their uncertainties for several local and global catalogues, and their subdivisions in various time intervals, magnitude thresholds, spatial windows, and tectonic categories. The theoretical model of how the clustering parameter depends on the corner (maximum) magnitude can be used to predict future earthquake number distribution in regions where very large earthquakes have not yet occurred.

  8. Magnitude 8.1 Earthquake off the Solomon Islands

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2007-01-01

    On April 1, 2007, a magnitude 8.1 earthquake rattled the Solomon Islands, 2,145 kilometers (1,330 miles) northeast of Brisbane, Australia. Centered less than ten kilometers beneath the Earth's surface, the earthquake displaced enough water in the ocean above to trigger a small tsunami. Though officials were still assessing damage to remote island communities on April 3, Reuters reported that the earthquake and the tsunami killed an estimated 22 people and left as many as 5,409 homeless. The most serious damage occurred on the island of Gizo, northwest of the earthquake epicenter, where the tsunami damaged the hospital, schools, and hundreds of houses, said Reuters. This image, captured by the Landsat-7 satellite, shows the location of the earthquake epicenter in relation to the nearest islands in the Solomon Island group. Gizo is beyond the left edge of the image, but its triangular fringing coral reefs are shown in the upper left corner. Though dense rain forest hides volcanic features from view, the very shape of the islands testifies to the geologic activity of the region. The circular Kolombangara Island is the tip of a dormant volcano, and other circular volcanic peaks are visible in the image. The image also shows that the Solomon Islands run on a northwest-southeast axis parallel to the edge of the Pacific plate, the section of the Earth's crust that carries the Pacific Ocean and its islands. The earthquake occurred along the plate boundary, where the Australia/Woodlark/Solomon Sea plates slide beneath the denser Pacific plate. Friction between the sinking (subducting) plates and the overriding Pacific plate led to the large earthquake on April 1, said the United States Geological Survey (USGS) summary of the earthquake. Large earthquakes are common in the region, though the section of the plate that produced the April 1 earthquake had not caused any quakes of magnitude 7 or larger since the early 20th century, said the USGS.

  9. Analysis of Landslides Triggered by October 2005, Kashmir Earthquake

    PubMed Central

    Mahmood, Irfan; Qureshi, Shahid Nadeem; Tariq, Shahina; Atique, Luqman; Iqbal, Muhammad Farooq

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: The October 2005, Kashmir earthquake main event was triggered along the Balakot-Bagh Fault which runs from Bagh to Balakot, and caused more damages in and around these areas. Major landslides were activated during and after the earthquake inflicting large damages in the area, both in terms of infrastructure and casualties. These landslides were mainly attributed to the minimum threshold of the earthquake, geology of the area, climatologic and geomorphologic conditions, mudflows, widening of the roads without stability assessment, and heavy rainfall after the earthquake. These landslides were mainly rock and debris falls. Hattian Bala rock avalanche was largest landslide associated with the earthquake which completely destroyed a village and blocked the valley creating a lake. Discussion: The present study shows that the fault rupture and fault geometry have direct influence on the distribution of landslides and that along the rupture zone a high frequency band of landslides was triggered. There was an increase in number of landslides due to 2005 earthquake and its aftershocks and that most of earthquakes have occurred along faults, rivers and roads. It is observed that the stability of landslide mass is greatly influenced by amplitude, frequency and duration of earthquake induced ground motion. Most of the slope failures along the roads resulted from the alteration of these slopes during widening of the roads, and seepages during the rainy season immediately after the earthquake. Conclusion: Landslides occurred mostly along weakly cemented and indurated rocks, colluvial sand and cemented soils. It is also worth noting that fissures and ground crack which were induced by main and after shock are still present and they pose a major potential threat for future landslides in case of another earthquake activity or under extreme weather conditions. PMID:26366324

  10. Treatment of Anthrax Disease Frequently Asked Questions

    SciTech Connect

    Judd, Kathleen S.; Young, Joan E.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Malone, John D.

    2010-05-14

    This document provides a summary of Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) on the treatment of anthrax disease caused by a wide-area release of Bacillus anthracis spores as an act bioterrorism. These FAQs are intended to provide the public health and medical community, as well as others, with guidance and communications to support the response and long-term recovery from an anthrax event.

  11. EXPOSURE FACTORS HANDBOOK - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    This page provides a list of the most frequently asked questions and answers related to exposure factors. The following questions and answers have been compiled from inquiries made by users of the Exposure Factors Handbook. These questions and answers provide general information ...

  12. Frequent Collaborative Quiz Taking and Conceptual Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rezaei, Ali R.

    2015-01-01

    This quasi-experimental study reports on the effectiveness of three assessment strategies for students' performance. The primary goal was to determine whether there are any improvements in students' conceptual learning when a frequent (weekly) quiz is used for grading purposes compared to using midterm and final examinations only. Another goal was…

  13. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Tullis, T E

    1996-04-30

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. PMID:11607668

  14. Rock friction and its implications for earthquake prediction examined via models of Parkfield earthquakes.

    PubMed Central

    Tullis, T E

    1996-01-01

    The friction of rocks in the laboratory is a function of time, velocity of sliding, and displacement. Although the processes responsible for these dependencies are unknown, constitutive equations have been developed that do a reasonable job of describing the laboratory behavior. These constitutive laws have been used to create a model of earthquakes at Parkfield, CA, by using boundary conditions appropriate for the section of the fault that slips in magnitude 6 earthquakes every 20-30 years. The behavior of this model prior to the earthquakes is investigated to determine whether or not the model earthquakes could be predicted in the real world by using realistic instruments and instrument locations. Premonitory slip does occur in the model, but it is relatively restricted in time and space and detecting it from the surface may be difficult. The magnitude of the strain rate at the earth's surface due to this accelerating slip seems lower than the detectability limit of instruments in the presence of earth noise. Although not specifically modeled, microseismicity related to the accelerating creep and to creep events in the model should be detectable. In fact the logarithm of the moment rate on the hypocentral cell of the fault due to slip increases linearly with minus the logarithm of the time to the earthquake. This could conceivably be used to determine when the earthquake was going to occur. An unresolved question is whether this pattern of accelerating slip could be recognized from the microseismicity, given the discrete nature of seismic events. Nevertheless, the model results suggest that the most likely solution to earthquake prediction is to look for a pattern of acceleration in microseismicity and thereby identify the microearthquakes as foreshocks. Images Fig. 4 Fig. 4 Fig. 5 Fig. 7 PMID:11607668

  15. Frequent oligonucleotides and peptides of the Haemophilus influenzae genome.

    PubMed Central

    Karlin, S; Mrázek, J; Campbell, A M

    1996-01-01

    The complete Haemophilus influenzae genome (1.83 Mb, Rd strain) provides opportunities for characterizing global genomic inhomogeneities and for detecting important sequence signals. Along these lines, new methods for identifying frequent words (oligonucleotides and/or peptides) and their distributions are applied to the H.influenzae genome with some comparisons and contrasts made with frequent words of other bacterial genomes. Three major classes of frequent oligonucleotides stand out: (i) oligos related to the familiar uptake signal sequences (USSs), AAGTGCGGT (USS+) and its inverted complement (USS-), (ii) multiple tetranucleotide iterations and (iii) intergenic dyad sequences (ISDs) found as AAGCCCACCCTAC and its dyad form. The USS+ and USS- occur in almost equal counts, are remarkably evenly spaced around the genome, and appear predominantly in the same reading frame of protein coding domains (USS+ translated to Ser-Ala-Val, USS- translated to Thr-Ala-Leu). These observations suggest that USSs contribute to global genomic functions, for example, in replication and/or repair processes, or as membrane attachment sites, or as sequences helping to pack DNA. The long tetranucleotide iterations, virtually unique to H.influenzae (i.e., unknown in other prokaryotes), through polymerase slippage during replication and/or homologous recombination may produce subpopulations expressing alternative proteins. The 13 bp frequent IDS words, invariably intergenic, occur mostly in clusters and provide potential for complex secondary structures suggesting that these sequences may be important signals for regulating the activity of their flanking genes. The frequent oligopeptides of H.influenzae are principally of two kinds--those induced by oligonucleotide frequent words (USSs, tetranucleotide iterations), and those associated with ATP or GTP binding sites that are generally composed of three motifs: the A-box which contributes to delineating the binding pocket; the B-box which

  16. Earthquake-induced water-level fluctuations at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, June 1992

    SciTech Connect

    O`Brien, G.M.

    1993-07-01

    This report presents earthquake-induced water-level and fluid-pressure data for wells in the Yucca Mountain area, Nevada, during June 1992. Three earthquakes occurred which caused significant water-level and fluid-pressure responses in wells. Wells USW H-5 and USW H-6 are continuously monitored to detect short-term responses caused by earthquakes. Two wells, monitored hourly, had significant, longer-term responses in water level following the earthquakes. On June 28, 1992, a 7.5-magnitude earthquake occurred near Landers, California causing an estimated maximum water-level change of 90 centimeters in well USW H-5. Three hours later a 6.6-magnitude earthquake occurred near Big Bear Lake, California; the maximum water-level fluctuation was 20 centimeters in well USW H-5. A 5.6-magnitude earthquake occurred at Little Skull Mountain, Nevada, on June 29, approximately 23 kilometers from Yucca Mountain. The maximum estimated short-term water-level fluctuation from the Little Skull Mountain earthquake was 40 centimeters in well USW H-5. The water level in well UE-25p {number_sign}1, monitored hourly, decreased approximately 50 centimeters over 3 days following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The water level in UE-25p {number_sign}1 returned to pre-earthquake levels in approximately 6 months. The water level in the lower interval of well USW H-3 increased 28 centimeters following the Little Skull Mountain earthquake. The Landers and Little Skull Mountain earthquakes caused responses in 17 intervals of 14 hourly monitored wells, however, most responses were small and of short duration. For several days following the major earthquakes, many smaller magnitude aftershocks occurred causing measurable responses in the continuously monitored wells.

  17. Evidence of a Large-Magnitude Recent Prehistoric Earthquake on the Bear River Fault, Wyoming and Utah: Implications for Recurrence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hecker, S.; Schwartz, D. P.

    2015-12-01

    Trenching across the antithetic strand of the Bear River normal fault in Utah has exposed evidence of a very young surface rupture. AMS radiocarbon analysis of three samples comprising pine-cone scales and needles from a 5-cm-thick faulted layer of organic detritus indicates the earthquake occurred post-320 CAL yr. BP (after A.D. 1630). The dated layer is buried beneath topsoil and a 15-cm-high scarp on the forest floor. Prior to this study, the entire surface-rupturing history of this nascent normal fault was thought to consist of two large events in the late Holocene (West, 1994; Schwartz et al., 2012). The discovery of a third, barely pre-historic, event led us to take a fresh look at geomorphically youthful depressions on the floodplain of the Bear River that we had interpreted as possible evidence of liquefaction. The appearance of these features is remarkably similar to sand-blow craters formed in the near-field of the M6.9 1983 Borah Peak earthquake. We have also identified steep scarps (<2 m high) and a still-forming coarse colluvial wedge near the north end of the fault in Wyoming, indicating that the most recent event ruptured most or all of the 40-km length of the fault. Since first rupturing to the surface about 4500 years ago, the Bear River fault has generated large-magnitude earthquakes at intervals of about 2000 years, more frequently than most active faults in the region. The sudden initiation of normal faulting in an area of no prior late Cenozoic extension provides a basis for seismic hazard estimates of the maximum-magnitude background earthquake (earthquake not associated with a known fault) for normal faults in the Intermountain West.

  18. Present, Past, Future - What earthquake clusters can tell us about an upcoming Marmara Sea earthquake

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaefer, Andreas; Daniell, James; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    Earthquake clusters are a worldwide observation, especially with respect to large events in terms of their respective aftershock sequences. These clusters contain a lot of information about the general seismicity of the region and follow various magnitude and location-dependent characteristics. Using the seismic record of smaller magnitudes in the aftermath of large earthquakes, these details can be used to extrapolate these characteristics and to simulate the unrecorded cluster activity of historic earthquakes. The Marmara Sea is prone to frequent strong seismicity, most recently experienced by the destructive Izmit earthquake in 1999 and several historic events with frequent return periods of only a few centuries. For the future, such an event is expected in the area of Istanbul. The city has already experienced several earthquakes over its long history, such as in 1509, when major parts of Constantinople were destroyed or severely damaged. The fault system in the Marmara Sea is very complex, but based on the distribution of fault ruptures during the last 500 years, a seismic gap is visible and experts around the world see an increased probability of a strong earthquake in the vicinity of Istanbul for the next decades. The seismicity and characteristics of clusters around the Marmara Sea and along the North Anatolian fault have been studied. The activity of these clusters, recorded during the last decades, is used to model the spatial and temporal distribution of aftershocks of historic events. In addition, a fault model is used and combined with the results of the cluster analysis to elongate the synthetic earthquake locations to active tectonics. The results are correlated and calibrated with the observed macroseismic intensity distribution of each historic event. With respect to recent ruptures, several scenarios are modelled for future events including and compared in terms of their respective ground accelerations. As a result, a new collection of possible

  19. Earthquake scenarios based on lessons from the past

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solakov, Dimcho; Simeonova, Stella; Aleksandrova, Irena; Popova, Iliana

    2010-05-01

    Earthquakes are the most deadly of the natural disasters affecting the human environment; indeed catastrophic earthquakes have marked the whole human history. Global seismic hazard and vulnerability to earthquakes are increasing steadily as urbanization and development occupy more areas that are prone to effects of strong earthquakes. Additionally, the uncontrolled growth of mega cities in highly seismic areas around the world is often associated with the construction of seismically unsafe buildings and infrastructures, and undertaken with an insufficient knowledge of the regional seismicity peculiarities and seismic hazard. The assessment of seismic hazard and generation of earthquake scenarios is the first link in the prevention chain and the first step in the evaluation of the seismic risk. The implementation of the earthquake scenarios into the policies for seismic risk reduction will allow focusing on the prevention of earthquake effects rather than on intervention following the disasters. The territory of Bulgaria (situated in the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula) represents a typical example of high seismic risk area. Over the centuries, Bulgaria has experienced strong earthquakes. At the beginning of the 20-the century (from 1901 to 1928) five earthquakes with magnitude larger than or equal to MS=7.0 occurred in Bulgaria. However, no such large earthquakes occurred in Bulgaria since 1928, which may induce non-professionals to underestimate the earthquake risk. The 1986 earthquake of magnitude MS=5.7 occurred in the central northern Bulgaria (near the town of Strazhitsa) is the strongest quake after 1928. Moreover, the seismicity of the neighboring countries, like Greece, Turkey, former Yugoslavia and Romania (especially Vrancea-Romania intermediate earthquakes), influences the seismic hazard in Bulgaria. In the present study deterministic scenarios (expressed in seismic intensity) for two Bulgarian cities (Rouse and Plovdiv) are presented. The work on

  20. Searching for Unknown Earthquakes in the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, Earthquake Sequence using Efficient Waveform Similarity Search

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, C. E.; OReilly, O. J.; Bergen, K.; Huang, Y.; Beroza, G. C.

    2015-12-01

    Recent seismicity rate increases in the central United States have been attributed to injection of wastewater from oil and gas production. One example is the Guy-Greenbrier, Arkansas, earthquake sequence, which occurred from July 2010 through October 2011, and was potentially induced by fluid injection into nearby disposal wells (Horton, 2012). Although the Arkansas seismic network is sparse, a single 3-component station WHAR recorded continuous data before, during, and after this earthquake sequence at distances ranging from 2-9 km. Huang and Beroza (2015) used template matching to detect over 100 times the number of cataloged earthquakes by cross-correlating the continuous data with waveform templates based on known earthquakes to search for additional low-magnitude events. Because known waveform templates do not necessarily fully represent all seismic signals in the continuous data, small earthquakes from unknown sources could have escaped detection. We use a method called Fingerprint And Similarity Thresholding (FAST) to detect additional low-magnitude earthquakes that were missed by template matching. FAST enables fast, scalable search for earthquakes with similar waveforms without making prior assumptions about the seismic signal of interest. FAST, based on a data mining technique, first creates compact "fingerprints" of waveforms by extracting discriminative features, then uses locality-sensitive hashing to organize and efficiently search for similar fingerprints (and therefore similar earthquake waveforms) in a probabilistic manner. With FAST, each search query is processed in near-constant time, independent of the dataset size; this computational efficiency is gained at the expense of an approximate, rather than exact, search. During one week of continuous data at station WHAR, from 2010-07-01 to 2010-07-08, FAST detected over 200 uncataloged earthquakes that were not found through template matching. These newly detected earthquakes have the potential to

  1. Relationship Between Afterslip of 2003 Tokachi Earthquakes and Coseismic-slip of 2004 Kushiro Earthquakes Using Viscoelastic Media

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sato, T.; Takemura, H.

    2010-12-01

    The studies of afterslip distribution of large plate interface earthquakes are important for revealing frictional properties on faults, and investigating trigger processes to adjacent faults. After 2003 Tokachi Earthquake (M8.0), Hokkaido, Japan, post seismic deformation was observed, and this observation indicates occurrence of afterslip at eastern side of the earthquake. After 1.2 yr of the Tokachi Earthquake, two large events (M7.1, M6.9) occurred at off Kushiro, which is located 150km east from the Tokachi Earthquake. It is considered that these two events may be triggered by the afterslip of the Tokachi Earthquake. To investigate the trigger process, we estimate special and temporal afterslip distribution. The effect of viscoelastic relaxation at the asthenosphere is important on post seismic surface deformation (Matsu’ura and Sato, GJI, 1989; Sato and Matsu’ura, GJI, 1992). We estimate afterslip distribution of large interplate earthquakes using viscoelastic media. We consider not only viscoelastic responses of coseismic slip but also viscoelastic responses of afterslips (Sato and Higuchi, AGU Fall Meeting, 2009). Because many studies suggested that the magnitude of afterslips was comparable to that of coseismic slip, viscoelastic responses of afterslips should not be negligible. Therefore, surface displacement data include viscoelastic response of coseismic slip, viscoelastic response of afterslips which occurred just after coseismic period to just before the present, and elastic response of the present afterslip. We estimate afterslip distribution of the Tokachi Earthquake using GPS data by GSI, Japan. We use CAMP model (Hashimoto et al, PAGEOPH, 2004) as a plate interface between the Pacific plate and the North American plate. The viscoelastic results show that afterslips concentrate deeper parts of the plate interface at the eastern adjoining area of the Tokachi Earthquake. Just before the Kushiro Events (1-1.2 yr after the Tokachi Earthquake

  2. The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schweig, E.; Gomberg, J.; Petersen, M.; Ellis, M.; Bodin, P.; Mayrose, L.; Rastogi, B.K.

    2003-01-01

    The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

  3. Afterslip, tremor, and the Denali fault earthquake

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, Joan; Prejean, Stephanie; Ruppert, Natalia

    2012-01-01

    We tested the hypothesis that afterslip should be accompanied by tremor using observations of seismic and aseismic deformation surrounding the 2002 M 7.9 Denali fault, Alaska, earthquake (DFE). Afterslip happens more frequently than spontaneous slow slip and has been observed in a wider range of tectonic environments, and thus the existence or absence of tremor accompanying afterslip may provide new clues about tremor generation. We also searched for precursory tremor, as a proxy for posited accelerating slip leading to rupture. Our search yielded no tremor during the five days prior to the DFE or in several intervals in the three months after. This negative result and an array of other observations all may be explained by rupture penetrating below the presumed locked zone into the frictional transition zone. While not unique, such an explanation corroborates previous models of megathrust and transform earthquake ruptures that extend well into the transition zone.

  4. Remotely Triggered Earthquakes in Stable Continental Regions: Beacons of Stress?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hough, S. E.; Seeber, L.; Armbruster, J. G.

    2002-12-01

    Remotely triggered earthquakes appear to occur relatively commonly following large (Mw>7) mainshocks in stable continental regions (SCRs). Such events are important for several reasons: 1) they can give rise to locally high ground motions that can be mistaken for mainshock shaking, and thereby inflate isoseismal contours, 2) they can be potentially damaging events in their own right, and 3) they prove that remotely triggered earthquakes occur in diverse tectonic and mechanical settings. We present examples from several large SCR earthquakes including the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina earthquake. We explore the possibility that in low strain-rate regions, remotely triggered earthquakes reflect a prevalence of faults that are close to failure rather than the presence of weak faults or geothermal/hydrothermal fluids. We further illustrate how, in a low strain-rate environment, permanent, non-elastic deformation might account for this prevalence, playing a larger role in stress accumulation than in high strain-rate regions. Using a simple model incorporating both elastic and anelastic strain release, we show that, for realistic parameter values, faults in intraplate crust might remain close to their failure stress for a longer part of the earthquake cycle than faults in high strain-rate regions. Our results furthermore reveal that remotely triggered earthquakes occur preferentially in regions of recent and/or future seismic activity, which suggests that faults tend to be at a critical stress state in only some areas. It is not surprising that triggered earthquakes would serve as beacons that identify regions that are approaching a critical stress state. Their occurrence in regions that have experienced large earthquakes in the recent past (a few hundred years) provides evidence that, once developed, a critically stressed region of intraplate crust will persist for hundreds if not thousands of years and give rise to prolonged

  5. Hayward fault: Large earthquakes versus surface creep

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lienkaemper, James J.; Borchardt, Glenn

    1992-01-01

    The Hayward fault, thought a likely source of large earthquakes in the next few decades, has generated two large historic earthquakes (about magnitude 7), one in 1836 and another in 1868. We know little about the 1836 event, but the 1868 event had a surface rupture extending 41 km along the southern Hayward fault. Right-lateral surface slip occurred in 1868, but was not well measured. Witness accounts suggest coseismic right slip and afterslip of under a meter. We measured the spatial variation of the historic creep rate along the Hayward fault, deriving rates mainly from surveys of offset cultural features, (curbs, fences, and buildings). Creep occurs along at least 69 km of the fault's 82-km length (13 km is underwater). Creep rate seems nearly constant over many decades with short-term variations. The creep rate mostly ranges from 3.5 to 6.5 mm/yr, varying systemically along strike. The fastest creep is along a 4-km section near the south end. Here creep has been about 9mm/yr since 1921, and possibly since the 1868 event as indicated by offset railroad track rebuilt in 1869. This 9mm/yr slip rate may approach the long-term or deep slip rate related to the strain buildup that produces large earthquakes, a hypothesis supported by geoloic studies (Lienkaemper and Borchardt, 1992). If so, the potential for slip in large earthquakes which originate below the surficial creeping zone, may now be 1/1m along the southern (1868) segment and ≥1.4m along the northern (1836?) segment. Substracting surface creep rates from a long-term slip rate of 9mm/yr gives present potential for surface slip in large earthquakes of up to 0.8m. Our earthquake potential model which accounts for historic creep rate, microseismicity distribution, and geodetic data, suggests that enough strain may now be available for large magnitude earthquakes (magnitude 6.8 in the northern (1836?) segment, 6.7 in the southern (1868) segment, and 7.0 for both). Thus despite surficial creep, the fault may be

  6. Reducing the Risks of Nonstructural Earthquake Damage: A Practical Guide. Earthquake Hazards Reduction Series 1.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Reitherman, Robert

    The purpose of this booklet is to provide practical information to owners, operators, and occupants of office and commercial buildings on the vulnerabilities posed by earthquake damage to nonstructural items and the means available to deal with these potential problems. Examples of dangerous nonstructural damages that have occurred in past…

  7. What is the best use of 100 Euros to reduce the earthquake risk of a residential masonry building in a developed nation? Optimisation and Quantification of the benefits of risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daniell, James; Schaefer, Andreas; Wenzel, Friedemann

    2015-04-01

    The average loss per building in developed countries like Australia or Switzerland due to earthquakes will be far in excess of 100€ over a political lifetime of 4 years (via a stochastic risk assessment). So a good question is, what can be done for 100€ and a bit of hard work, to strengthen and retrofit a URM (unreinforced masonry house). Of course much of the loss occurs in a few large events, but significant damage also occurs from more frequent smaller events. Using the CATDAT Damaging Earthquakes Database (Daniell et al., 2011), 57% of deaths from earthquakes have occurred in masonry buildings since 1900 globally. Thus, with a view towards life safety and the maximum return on investment, different options are tested and discussed for retrofitting the average brick house for earthquake resistance. Bolting and bracketing furniture, electrical equipment and valuables to walls, the removal or tying in of certain non-structural elements, as well as adjustments such as seismic wallpaper and reinforcement are tested from empirical and analytical experience from around the world. Of course, earthquakes are not the only main concern for developed nation populations, so a view as to the best use of the 100€ is looked at in combination with other disaster types. Insurance takeout and its implications are also discussed. The process is repeated for the D-A-CH (Germany, Austria and Switzerland) region in order to see the regional economic implications for widespread awareness of earthquake risks and losses. The risk reduction is quantified and is seen to be significant for nearly all of the D-A-CH region. This analysis has implications for developed and developing nations alike.

  8. Earthquake safety program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Freeland, G. E.

    1985-08-01

    Within three minutes on the morning of January 24, 1980, an earthquake and three aftershocks, with Richter magnitudes of 5.8, 5.1, 4.0, and 4.2, respectively, struck the Livermore Valley. Two days later, a Richter magnitude 5.4 earthquake occurred, which had its epicenter about 4 miles northwest of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Although no one at the Lab was seriously injured, these earthquakes caused considerable damage and disruption. Masonry and concrete structures cracked and broke trailers shifted and fell off their pedestals, office ceilings and overhead lighting fell, and bookcases overturned. Employee suddenly found themselves immersed in a site-wide program of repairing earthquake-damaged facilities, and protecting employees and the surrounding community from future earthquakes. Over the past five years, LLNL has spent approximately $10 million on its earthquake restoration effort for repairs and upgrades. The discussion there centers upon the earthquake damage that occurred, clean-up and restoration efforts, the seismic review of LLNL facilities, site-specific seismic design criteria, computer-floor upgrades, ceiling-system upgrades, unique building seismic upgrades, geologic and seismologic studies, and seismic instrumentation.

  9. Earthquake Nonconcordancies in the Aceh-Nias and Mentawai Forearcs: Implications for the Energetics of Earthquakes and Tsunamis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choy, G. L.; Kirby, S. H.

    2012-12-01

    The identification and characterization of nonconcordant events, by virtue of their strong influence on rupture geometry and extent, will be valuable for estimating seismic and tsunami potential. We classify thrust earthquakes at the subduction zone as nonconcordant if (1) their depths are unequivocally off the slab interface; (2) neither nodal plane of their focal mechanisms is compatible with the dip of the slab interface; or (3) their radiated energies are anomalously high (having taua > 1 MPa, where taua is apparent stress mu ES/M_O). We find that about 12% of large (M > 5.5) thrust earthquakes in the subduction zone occur off the slab interface. Other earthquakes with hypocenters that are not distinguishable from the slab interface have nonconcordant focal mechanisms. Another subset of earthquakes is characterized by high apparent stress. This is an indicator of nonconcordancy because high energy radiation is associated with immature faults. [In contrast, the subducting-plate interface is a mature fault on which thrust events radiate generally low energy (Choy and Kirby, 2004)]. The environments in which nonconcordant high-energy events typically occur are intraslab or regions of plate reorganization. On the other hand, nonconcordant mid-energy events (taua < 1 MPa) often correlate with subducted topography or splay faults. Transoceanic tsunamis are often associated with slow earthquakes which are characterized by an anomalous depletion of high frequency energy. However, some recent large earthquakes in the Aceh-Nias and Mentawai forearcs show (1) that tsunamis generated by mid- and high-energy earthquakes are possible, and (2) that regional tsunami wave heights can be associated with intraslab and intracrustal earthquakes. Furthermore, epicenters of nonconcordant earthquakes in the Sunda arc can help define the rupture zone of large earthquakes as they tend to be located on the periphery of the rupture zones. Clusters of high-energy nonconcordant events

  10. Differential Energy Radiation from Two Earthquakes with Similar Mw: The Baja California 2010 and Haiti 2010 Earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, L.; Shi, B.

    2010-12-01

    The Baja, Mexico, earthquake of the April 4, 2010, Mw 7.2 occurred in northern Baja California at shallow depth along the principal plate boundary between the North American and Pacific plates, 2 people killed in the Mexicali area. The January 12, 2010, Mw 7.0, Haiti, earthquake occurred in the vicinity of Port-au-Prince, the capital of Haiti, on the Enriquillo Plantain Garden Fault, and with estimates of almost 250,000 deaths. International media reports of such kind of disasters by Haiti earthquake is just resulted from poor building structure design comparing with Mexicali area. Although the moment magnitude of the Haiti earthquake is similar as the Baja earthquake, but the radiated energy of the Haiti earthquake almost as 15 times as the Baja earthquake, resulting stronger near-fault ground motions. For the Haiti earthquake and Baja earthquake with the similar moment magnitude, two special finite fault models are constructed to simulate the near-fault strong ground motion for comparison purpose. We propose a new technique based on the far-field energy integrand over a simple finite fault to estimate S-wave energy radiation with associated the composite source model. The fault slip distributions on both faults are generated based on the composite source model in which the subevent-source-function is described by Brune’s pulse. The near-field peak ground accelerations (PGAs) including the shallow velocity structures (V30, average shear-velocity down to 30 m ) from the Haiti earthquake is almost as 20 times as from Baja earthquake, while the peak ground velocities (PGVs) including the shallow velocity structures from Yushu earthquake is almost as 8 times as from the Baja earthquake. Therefore, the radiated seismic energy plays a significant role in determining the levels of strong grounds in which stronger ground accelerations usually could cause much more property damages on the ground. The source rupture dynamics related to the frictional overshoot and

  11. Quantifying the Seismic Hazard From Natural and Induced Earthquakes (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rubinstein, J. L.; Llenos, A. L.; Ellsworth, W. L.; McGarr, A.; Michael, A. J.; Mueller, C. S.; Petersen, M. D.

    2013-12-01

    In the past 12 years, seismicity rates in portions of the central and eastern United States (CEUS) have increased. In 2011, the year of peak activity, three M ≥ 5 earthquakes occurred, causing millions of dollars in damage. Much of the increase in seismicity is believed to have been induced by wastewater from oil and gas activity that is injected deep underground. This includes damaging earthquakes in southern Colorado, central Arkansas, and central Oklahoma in 2011. Earthquakes related to oil and gas activities contribute significantly to the total seismic hazard in some areas of the CEUS, but most of the tens of thousands of wastewater disposal wells in the CEUS do not cause damaging earthquakes. The challenge is to better understand this contribution to the hazard in a realistic way for those wells that are inducing earthquakes or wells that may induce earthquakes in the future. We propose a logic-tree approach to estimate the hazard posed by the change in seismicity that deemphasizes the need to evaluate whether the seismicity is natural or man-made. We first compile a list of areas of increased seismicity, including areas of known induced earthquakes. Using areas of increased seismicity (instead of just induced earthquakes) allows us to assess the hazard over a broader region, avoiding the often-difficult task of judging whether an earthquake sequence is induced. With the zones of increased seismicity defined, we then estimate the earthquake hazard for each zone using a four-branch logic tree: (1) The increased seismicity rate is natural, short-term variation within the longer-term background seismicity rate. Thus, these earthquakes would be added to the catalog when computing the background seismicity rate. (2) The increased seismicity rate represents a new and permanent addition to the background seismicity. In this branch, a new background seismicity rate begins at the time of the change in earthquake rate. (3) Induced earthquakes account for the

  12. EARTHQUAKES - VOLCANOES(Causes - Forecast - Counteraction)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsiapas, E.; Soumelidou, D.; Tsiapas, C.

    2012-04-01

    Earthquakes and volcanoes are caused by: Α) Various liquid elements (e.g. H20, H2S, S02) which emerge from the pyrosphere and are trapped in the space between the solid crust and the pyrosphere (Moho discontinuity). Β) Protrusions of the solid crust at the Moho discontinuity (mountain range roots, sinking of the lithosphere's plates). C) The differential movement of crust and pyrosphere. The crust misses one full rotation for approximately every 100 pyrosphere rotations, mostly because of the lunar pull. The above mentioned elements can be found in small quantities all over the Moho discontinuity, and they are constantly causing minor earthquakes and small volcanic eruptions. When large quantities of these elements (H20, H2S, SO2, etc) concentrate, they are carried away by the pyrosphere, moving from west to east under the crust. When this movement takes place under flat surfaces of the solid crust, it does not cause earthquakes. But when these elements come along a protrusion (a mountain root) they concentrate on its western side, displacing the pyrosphere until they fill the space created. Due to the differential movement of pyrosphere and solid crust, a vacuum is created on the eastern side of these protrusions and when the aforementioned liquids overfill this space, they explode, escaping to the east. At the point of their escape, these liquids are vaporized and compressed, their flow accelerates, their temperature rises due to fluid friction and they are ionized. On the Earth's surface, a powerful rumbling sound and electrical discharges in the atmosphere, caused by the movement of the gasses, are noticeable. When these elements escape, the space on the west side of the protrusion is violently taken up by the pyrosphere, which collides with the protrusion, causing a major earthquake, attenuation of the protrusions, cracks on the solid crust and damages to structures on the Earth's surface. It is easy to foresee when an earthquake will occur and how big it is

  13. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

    2016-06-10

    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard. PMID:27284188

  14. Deeper penetration of large earthquakes on seismically quiescent faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Junle; Lapusta, Nadia

    2016-06-01

    Why many major strike-slip faults known to have had large earthquakes are silent in the interseismic period is a long-standing enigma. One would expect small earthquakes to occur at least at the bottom of the seismogenic zone, where deeper aseismic deformation concentrates loading. We suggest that the absence of such concentrated microseismicity indicates deep rupture past the seismogenic zone in previous large earthquakes. We support this conclusion with numerical simulations of fault behavior and observations of recent major events. Our modeling implies that the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in Southern California penetrated below the seismogenic zone by at least 3 to 5 kilometers. Our findings suggest that such deeper ruptures may occur on other major fault segments, potentially increasing the associated seismic hazard.

  15. LONG-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS IN CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gori, P.L.; Greene, M.R.

    1986-01-01

    The Charleston, South Carolina, area offers a unique opportunity to conduct studies that give insight into the implementation of policy for long-term earthquake preparedness at the local level. Research by Greene and Gori documented the low state of preparedness in 1981. Recent studies show that earthquake preparedness activities are now occurring in Charleston. Since 1981, increased national attention has been used by local citizens in Charleston to overcome political, informational, social, organizational, and economic barriers which tend to retard the adoption and implementation of earthquake mitigation policies.

  16. Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Nishenko, S.P.; Bollinger, G.A.

    1990-01-01

    Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude ??? 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years.

  17. Forecasting damaging earthquakes in the central and eastern United States.

    PubMed

    Nishenko, S P; Bollinger, G A

    1990-09-21

    Analysis of seismograph network data, earthquake catalogs from 1727 to 1982, and paleoseismic data for the central and eastern United States indicate that the Poisson probability of a damaging earthquake (magnitude >/= 6.0) occurring during the next 30 years is at a moderate to high level (0.4 to 0.6). When differences in seismic wave attenuation are taken into account, the central and eastern United States has approximately two-thirds the likelihood of California to produce an earthquake with comparable damage area and societal impact within the next 30 years. PMID:17812170

  18. Geological control of earthquake induced landslide in El Salvador

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsige Aga, Meaza

    2010-05-01

    Geological control of earthquake induced landslides in El Salvador. M., Tsige(1), I., Garcia-Flórez(1), R., Mateos(2) (1)Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Geología, Madrid, Spain, (meaza@geo.ucm.es) (2)IGME, Mallorca El Salvador is located at one of the most seismically active areas en Central America, and suffered severe damage and loss of life in historical and recent earthquakes, as a consequence of earthquake induced landslides. The most common landslides were shallow disrupted soil-slides on steep slopes and were particularly dense in the central part of the country. Most of them are cited in the recent mechanically weak volcanic pyroclastic deposits known as "Tierra Blanca" and "Tierra Color Café" which are prone to seismic wave amplification and are supposed to have contributed to the triggering of some of the hundreds of landslides related to the 2001 (Mw = 7.6 and Mw = 6.7), seismic events. The earthquakes also triggered numerous deep large scale landslides responsible for the enormous devastation of villages and towns and are the source for the current high seismic hazard as well. Many of these landslides are located at distances more than 50 and 100 km from the focal distance, although some of them occurred at near field. Until now there has been little effort to explain the causes and concentration of the deep large-scale landslides especially their distribution, failure mechanism and post-rapture behavior of the landslide mass (long run-out). It has been done a field investigation of landslides, geological materiales and interpretation of aerial photographs taken before and after the two 2001 (Mw= 7.6 and Mw= 6.7) El Salvador earthquakes. The result of the study showed that most of the large-scale landslides occured as coherent block slides with the sliding surface parallel to a pre-existing fractures and fault planes (La Leona, Barriolera, El Desague, Jiboa landslides). Besides that the pre-existing fractures are weak zones controlling

  19. Evidence for frequent incest in a cooperatively breeding mammal.

    PubMed

    Nichols, H J; Cant, M A; Hoffman, J I; Sanderson, J L

    2014-12-01

    As breeding between relatives often results in inbreeding depression, inbreeding avoidance is widespread in the animal kingdom. However, inbreeding avoidance may entail fitness costs. For example, dispersal away from relatives may reduce survival. How these conflicting selection pressures are resolved is challenging to investigate, but theoretical models predict that inbreeding should occur frequently in some systems. Despite this, few studies have found evidence of regular incest in mammals, even in social species where relatives are spatio-temporally clustered and opportunities for inbreeding frequently arise. We used genetic parentage assignments together with relatedness data to quantify inbreeding rates in a wild population of banded mongooses, a cooperatively breeding carnivore. We show that females regularly conceive to close relatives, including fathers and brothers. We suggest that the costs of inbreeding avoidance may sometimes outweigh the benefits, even in cooperatively breeding species where strong within-group incest avoidance is considered to be the norm. PMID:25540153

  20. Evidence for frequent incest in a cooperatively breeding mammal

    PubMed Central

    Nichols, H. J.; Cant, M. A.; Hoffman, J. I.; Sanderson, J. L.

    2014-01-01

    As breeding between relatives often results in inbreeding depression, inbreeding avoidance is widespread in the animal kingdom. However, inbreeding avoidance may entail fitness costs. For example, dispersal away from relatives may reduce survival. How these conflicting selection pressures are resolved is challenging to investigate, but theoretical models predict that inbreeding should occur frequently in some systems. Despite this, few studies have found evidence of regular incest in mammals, even in social species where relatives are spatio-temporally clustered and opportunities for inbreeding frequently arise. We used genetic parentage assignments together with relatedness data to quantify inbreeding rates in a wild population of banded mongooses, a cooperatively breeding carnivore. We show that females regularly conceive to close relatives, including fathers and brothers. We suggest that the costs of inbreeding avoidance may sometimes outweigh the benefits, even in cooperatively breeding species where strong within-group incest avoidance is considered to be the norm. PMID:25540153

  1. The 2001 Bhuj Earthquake: Interplate, Intraplate, or Moot?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ellis, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    On January 26, 2001, Republic Day in India, a Mw 7.7 earthquake occurred in the Kachchh region, in the state of Gujarat, India. Four red flags were waved almost immediately. First, the earthquake occurred many hundreds of kms away from the nearest plate boundary. Second, the earthquake was felt from Calcutta to Madras to Katmandu, an area 16 times that of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. Third, the Bhuj earthquake occurred in a failed rift that is in part seismically active, and last but not least, despite the relatively shallow hypocenter and large magnitude, the earthquake appeared to have no surface rupture. Each of these strongly bring to mind the great New Madrid earthquakes of 1811-1812, and so the debate began: was Bhuj an intraplate or interplate earthquake? Or is this a mootish red herring? The debate was fueled by early analyses of aftershock data collected by the Center for Earthquake Research and Information (CERI) that shows aftershocks (and most likely the main rupture) to densely populate depths of 20 to 37 km. The possibility of coseismic rupture well into the lower crust is particularly relevant to scaling issues and in understanding the origin of seismic moment in the New Madrid earthquakes. Intraplate, interplate, or moot? Certainly, the earthquake did not occur on the well-defined plate boundary between India and Eurasia. (In contrast to the diffuse northern boundary, the southern boundary is relatively well-defined, and the proposition that the setting is similar to that of the western USA is nonsense.) The closest plate boundary runs through Karachi, about 500 km to the northeast, and the orientation there of active structures and by inference, principal compression, is essentially orthogonal to those in the Bhuj region and to the probable E-W rupture plane. On the other hand, the principal compression of the Bhuj earthquake is essentially parallel to the relative motion of India with respect to Euasia and so the connection to India

  2. Postdialysis Fatigue: A Frequent and Debilitating Symptom.

    PubMed

    Bossola, Maurizio; Tazza, Luigi

    2016-05-01

    Postdialysis fatigue (PDF) is a frequent and debilitating symptom of patients on chronic hemodialysis that affects their daily living and quality of life. Little is known about the mechanisms underlying this symptom and its severity. Only a few studies have investigated therapeutic interventions and with conflicting results. Given the major impact of PDF on the quality of life of hemodialysis patients, a larger effort is warranted to better understand, prevent, and treat PDF. PMID:26806879

  3. SNTEMP (In)frequently asked questions

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bartholow, J.M.

    2000-01-01

    Here, you will find a series of questions and answers resulting from many years of technical assistance with SNTEMP and SSTEMP. These (in)frequently asked questions are presented here so that you may get a feel for the range of questions posed, learn from the questions and their 'answers,' and share in the discussions if you wish. I certainly didn't answer all the questions, nor do I feel like I've got the only answer for them all.

  4. On Differentially Private Frequent Itemset Mining.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Chen; Naughton, Jeffrey F; Cai, Jin-Yi

    2012-11-01

    We consider differentially private frequent itemset mining. We begin by exploring the theoretical difficulty of simultaneously providing good utility and good privacy in this task. While our analysis proves that in general this is very difficult, it leaves a glimmer of hope in that our proof of difficulty relies on the existence of long transactions (that is, transactions containing many items). Accordingly, we investigate an approach that begins by truncating long transactions, trading off errors introduced by the truncation with those introduced by the noise added to guarantee privacy. Experimental results over standard benchmark databases show that truncating is indeed effective. Our algorithm solves the "classical" frequent itemset mining problem, in which the goal is to find all itemsets whose support exceeds a threshold. Related work has proposed differentially private algorithms for the top-k itemset mining problem ("find the k most frequent itemsets".) An experimental comparison with those algorithms show that our algorithm achieves better F-score unless k is small. PMID:24039383

  5. Is It Possible to Predict Strong Earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polyakov, Y. S.; Ryabinin, G. V.; Solovyeva, A. B.; Timashev, S. F.

    2015-07-01

    The possibility of earthquake prediction is one of the key open questions in modern geophysics. We propose an approach based on the analysis of common short-term candidate precursors (2 weeks to 3 months prior to strong earthquake) with the subsequent processing of brain activity signals generated in specific types of rats (kept in laboratory settings) who reportedly sense an impending earthquake a few days prior to the event. We illustrate the identification of short-term precursors using the groundwater sodium-ion concentration data in the time frame from 2010 to 2014 (a major earthquake occurred on 28 February 2013) recorded at two different sites in the southeastern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula, Russia. The candidate precursors are observed as synchronized peaks in the nonstationarity factors, introduced within the flicker-noise spectroscopy framework for signal processing, for the high-frequency component of both time series. These peaks correspond to the local reorganizations of the underlying geophysical system that are believed to precede strong earthquakes. The rodent brain activity signals are selected as potential "immediate" (up to 2 weeks) deterministic precursors because of the recent scientific reports confirming that rodents sense imminent earthquakes and the population-genetic model of K irshvink (Soc Am 90, 312-323, 2000) showing how a reliable genetic seismic escape response system may have developed over the period of several hundred million years in certain animals. The use of brain activity signals, such as electroencephalograms, in contrast to conventional abnormal animal behavior observations, enables one to apply the standard "input-sensor-response" approach to determine what input signals trigger specific seismic escape brain activity responses.

  6. Dynamic stress changes during earthquake rupture

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Day, S.M.; Yu, G.; Wald, D.J.

    1998-01-01

    We assess two competing dynamic interpretations that have been proposed for the short slip durations characteristic of kinematic earthquake models derived by inversion of earthquake waveform and geodetic data. The first interpretation would require a fault constitutive relationship in which rapid dynamic restrengthening of the fault surface occurs after passage of the rupture front, a hypothesized mechanical behavior that has been referred to as "self-healing." The second interpretation would require sufficient spatial heterogeneity of stress drop to permit rapid equilibration of elastic stresses with the residual dynamic friction level, a condition we refer to as "geometrical constraint." These interpretations imply contrasting predictions for the time dependence of the fault-plane shear stresses. We compare these predictions with dynamic shear stress changes for the 1992 Landers (M 7.3), 1994 Northridge (M 6.7), and 1995 Kobe (M 6.9) earthquakes. Stress changes are computed from kinematic slip models of these earthquakes, using a finite-difference method. For each event, static stress drop is highly variable spatially, with high stress-drop patches embedded in a background of low, and largely negative, stress drop. The time histories of stress change show predominantly monotonic stress change after passage of the rupture front, settling to a residual level, without significant evidence for dynamic restrengthening. The stress change at the rupture front is usually gradual rather than abrupt, probably reflecting the limited resolution inherent in the underlying kinematic inversions. On the basis of this analysis, as well as recent similar results obtained independently for the Kobe and Morgan Hill earthquakes, we conclude that, at the present time, the self-healing hypothesis is unnecessary to explain earthquake kinematics.

  7. Are Our Buildings Safe Enough for Controlling Earthquake Mortality Risk?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsang, Hing-Ho; Wenzel, Friedemann; Daniell, James

    2016-04-01

    Structural engineers design buildings strictly according to the earthquake actions (demand) specified in code of practice, whilst the rationale behind such requirement is commonly untold. In fact, even if a structure is designed strictly in accordance to the best standard and practice in the world, there is still a (small) chance of failure or collapse in an extreme earthquake event, due to the uncertainties in material properties and actual ground motion characteristics. This is called the residual risk, which is unavoidable, and should be taken as a governing parameter for determining the performance goals of seismic design. Eurocode 8 is not a risk targeted code as its design requirements refer to return periods of ground motion rather than to collapse probabilities and/or probability of fatalities. The US International Building Code (IBC 2012) and the 2010 structural design standards of ASCE 7-10 target collapse probabilities for all levels of ground motion and accept a 1% collapse probability in 50 years as acceptable for design. Consequently, the input ground motion to design is no longer a hazard map for a uniform return period. However, we show that this risk target is not generally compatible with the intention to keep the fatality risk below the 10-6 per year threshold in code-compliant buildings. Moreover, the metric of individual fatality risk may not be appropriate as for (technological) incidents many regulations define requirements for the F-N curve so that loss events with, for instance, 100 fatalities in one event should occur much less frequently than events with 10 or more fatalities.

  8. Temporal variation of crustal deformation during the days preceding a thrust-type great earthquake — The 1944 Tonankai earthquake of magnitude 8.1, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mogi, Kiyoo

    1984-11-01

    The temporal variation in precursory ground tilt prior to the 1944 Tonankai (Japan) earthquake, which is a great thrust-type earthquake along the Nankai Trough, is discussed using the analysis of data from repeated surveys along short-distance leveling routes. Sato (1970) pointed out that an anomalous tilt occurred one day before the earthquake at Kakegawa near the northern end of the focal region of the earthquake. From the analysis of additional leveling data, Sato's result is re-examined and the temporal change in the ground tilt is deduced for the period of about ten days beginning six days before the earthquake. A remarkable precursory tilt started two or three days before the earthquake. The direction of the precursory tilt was up towards the south (uplift on the southern Nankai Trough side), but the coseismic tilt was up towards the southeast, perpendicular to the strike of the main thrust fault of the Tonankai earthquake. The postseismic tilt was probably opposite of the coseismic tilt. The preseismic tilt is attributed to precursory slip on part of the main fault. If similar precursory deformation occurs before a future earthquake expected to occur in the adjacent Tokai region, the deformation may help predict the time of the Tokai earthquake.

  9. Earthquakes and Earthquake Engineering. LC Science Tracer Bullet.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buydos, John F., Comp.

    An earthquake is a shaking of the ground resulting from a disturbance in the earth's interior. Seismology is the (1) study of earthquakes; (2) origin, propagation, and energy of seismic phenomena; (3) prediction of these phenomena; and (4) investigation of the structure of the earth. Earthquake engineering or engineering seismology includes the…

  10. Engineering geological aspect of Gorkha Earthquake 2015, Nepal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adhikari, Basanta Raj; Andermann, Christoff; Cook, Kristen

    2016-04-01

    Strong shaking by earthquake causes massif landsliding with severe effects on infrastructure and human lives. The distribution of landslides and other hazards are depending on the combination of earthquake and local characteristics which influence the dynamic response of hillslopes. The Himalayas are one of the most active mountain belts with several kilometers of relief and is very prone to catastrophic mass failure. Strong and shallow earthquakes are very common and cause wide spread collapse of hillslopes, increasing the background landslide rate by several magnitude. The Himalaya is facing many small and large earthquakes in the past i.e. earthquakes i.e. Bihar-Nepal earthquake 1934 (Ms 8.2); Large Kangra earthquake of 1905 (Ms 7.8); Gorkha earthquake 2015 (Mw 7.8). The Mw 7.9 Gorkha earthquake has occurred on and around the main Himalayan Thrust with a hypocentral depth of 15 km (GEER 2015) followed by Mw 7.3 aftershock in Kodari causing 8700+ deaths and leaving hundreds of thousands of homeless. Most of the 3000 aftershocks located by National Seismological Center (NSC) within the first 45 days following the Gorkha Earthquake are concentrated in a narrow 40 km-wide band at midcrustal to shallow depth along the strike of the southern slope of the high Himalaya (Adhikari et al. 2015) and the ground shaking was substantially lower in the short-period range than would be expected for and earthquake of this magnitude (Moss et al. 2015). The effect of this earthquake is very unique in affected areas by showing topographic effect, liquefaction and land subsidence. More than 5000 landslides were triggered by this earthquake (Earthquake without Frontiers, 2015). Most of the landslides are shallow and occurred in weathered bedrock and appear to have mobilized primarily as raveling failures, rock slides and rock falls. Majority of landslides are limited to a zone which runs east-west, approximately parallel the lesser and higher Himalaya. There are numerous cracks in

  11. Earthquakes: Megathrusts and mountain building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Briggs, Rich

    2016-05-01

    Coastlines above subduction zones slowly emerge from the sea despite repeated drowning by great, shallow earthquakes. Analysis of the Chilean coast suggests that moderate-to-large, deeper earthquakes may be responsible for the net uplift.

  12. Possible earthquake precursors revealed by LF radio signals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biagi, P. F.; Piccolo, R.; Ermini, A.; Martellucci, S.; Bellecci, C.; Hayakawa, M.; Capozzi, V.; Kingsley, S. P.

    Among radio signals, low frequency (LF) radio signals lie in the band between 30-300 kHz. Monitoring equipment with the ability to measure the electric strength of such signals at field sites, were designed and assembled in Italy. From 1993 onwards, the electric field strength of the MCO (216 kHz, France) broadcasting station has been collecting measurements at two sites in central Italy that were chosen according to very low noise levels. At the end of 1996, radio signals from the CLT (189 kHz, Italy) and CZE (270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcasting stations were included in the measurements. Meteorological data from central Italy were also collected over the same time period in order to study the influence of weather conditions on the experimental measurements. During the monitoring period, we observed some evident attenuation of the electric field strength in some of the radio signals at some of the receivers. The duration of the attenuation observed was several days, so it could possibly be related to particular meteorological conditions. On the other hand, this phenomenon might represent precursors of moderate (3.0 < M < 3.5) earthquakes that occurred near the receivers (within 50 km) along the transmitter-receiver path. In this case, it is possible that the pre-seismic processes could have produced irregularities in the troposphere, such as ducts, reflecting layers and scattering zones, so that some local troposphere defocusing of the radio signals might have occurred. These observations were related only to moderate earthquakes and in these cases, suitable meteorological conditions were probably needed to observe the effect. Between February - March 1998, we observed at one measuring site, a significant increase in the CZE electric field strength. Unfortunately, we could not use the data of the other receiver in this case, due to frequent interruptions in the data set. The increase might have been a precursor of the strong seismic sequence (M = 5.0-6.0) that

  13. EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS TO DOMESTIC WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS IN SALT LAKE COUNTY, UTAH.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Highland, Lynn M.

    1985-01-01

    A magnitude-7. 5 earthquake occurring along the central portion of the Wasatch Fault, Utah, may cause significant damage to Salt Lake County's domestic water system. This system is composed of water treatment plants, aqueducts, distribution mains, and other facilities that are vulnerable to ground shaking, liquefaction, fault movement, and slope failures. Recent investigations into surface faulting, landslide potential, and earthquake intensity provide basic data for evaluating the potential earthquake hazards to water-distribution systems in the event of a large earthquake. Water supply system components may be vulnerable to one or more earthquake-related effects, depending on site geology and topography. Case studies of water-system damage by recent large earthquakes in Utah and in other regions of the United States offer valuable insights in evaluating water system vulnerability to earthquakes.

  14. Bicentennial of the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquake sequence December 2011-2012

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    U.S. Geological Survey

    2010-01-01

    A series of earthquakes hit the New Madrid seismic zone of southeastern Missouri, northeastern Arkansas, and adjacent parts of Tennessee and Kentucky, in December 1811 to February 1812. Three earthquakes had a magnitude of 7.0 or greater. The first earthquake occurred December 16, 1811, at 2:15 a.m.; the second 9 a.m. on January 23, 1812; and the third on February 7, 1812, at 3:45 a.m. These three earthquakes were among the largest to strike North America since European settlement. The main shocks were followed by many hundreds of aftershocks that lasted for decades. Many of the aftershocks were major earthquakes themselves. The area that was strongly shaken by the three main shocks was 2-3 times as large as the strongly shaken area of the 1964 M9.2 Alaskan earthquake, and 10 times as large as that of the 1906 M7.8 San Francisco earthquake.

  15. Mantle phase changes and deep-earthquake faulting in subducting lithosphere

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kirby, S.H.; Durham, W.B.; Stern, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    Inclined zones of earthquakes are the primary expression of lithosphere subduction. A distinct deep population of subduction-zone earthquakes occurs at depths of 350 to 690 kilometers. At those depths ordinary brittle fracture and frictional sliding, the faulting processes of shallow earthquakes, are not expected. A fresh understanding of these deep earthquakes comes from developments in several areas of experimental and theoretical geophysics, including the discovery and characterization of transformational faulting, a shear instability connected with localized phase transformations under nonhydrostatic stress. These developments support the hypothesis that deep earthquakes represent transformational faulting in a wedge of olivine-rich peridotite that is likely to persist metastably in coldest plate interiors to depths as great as 690 km. Predictions based on this deep structure of mantle phase changes are consistent with the global depth distribution of deep earthquakes, the maximum depths of earthquakes in individual subductions zones, and key source characteristics of deep events.

  16. Slow stick slip of antigorite serpentinite under hydrothermal conditions as a possible mechanism for slow earthquakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Okazaki, Keishi; Katayama, Ikuo

    2015-02-01

    Slow earthquakes, characterized by a different scaling law to regular earthquakes, have been detected at the hydrated plate interface in the subduction zones, but the generating mechanism of them remains almost unexplored. Frictional experiments on antigorite serpentinite under hydrothermal conditions are conducted to assess the distinct scaling law of slow earthquakes. Slow stick-slip was observed at temperatures that were close to the dehydration temperature of antigorite, which is resulted by the localized dehydration of serpentine in the shear zone. The occurrence of slow stick-slip is consistent with the temperature range found in the corner of the mantle wedge in SW Japan and Cascadia, where slow earthquakes occur. The laboratory slow stick-slip shows a similar scaling law of slow earthquakes, but distinct from that of regular earthquakes. We propose that the shear-induced dehydration of the serpentine play an important role for the generation of slow earthquakes.

  17. Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1 through December 31, 2007

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dixon, James P.; Stihler, Scott D.; Power, John A.

    2008-01-01

    Between January 1 and December 31, 2007, AVO located 6,664 earthquakes of which 5,660 occurred within 20 kilometers of the 33 volcanoes monitored by the Alaska Volcano Observatory. Monitoring highlights in 2007 include: the eruption of Pavlof Volcano, volcanic-tectonic earthquake swarms at the Augustine, Illiamna, and Little Sitkin volcanic centers, and the cessation of episodes of unrest at Fourpeaked Mountain, Mount Veniaminof and the northern Atka Island volcanoes (Mount Kliuchef and Korovin Volcano). This catalog includes descriptions of : (1) locations of seismic instrumentation deployed during 2007; (2) earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival systems; (3) seismic velocity models used for earthquake locations; (4) a summary of earthquakes located in 2007; and (5) an accompanying UNIX tar-file with a summary of earthquake origin times, hypocenters, magnitudes, phase arrival times, location quality statistics, daily station usage statistics, and all files used to determine the earthquake locations in 2007.

  18. Catalog of earthquake hypocenters at Alaskan volcanoes: January 1 through December 31, 2006

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dixon, James P.; Stihler, Scott D.; Power, John A.; Searcy, Cheryl

    2008-01-01

    Between January 1 and December 31, 2006, AVO located 8,666 earthquakes of which 7,783 occurred on or near the 33 volcanoes monitored within Alaska. Monitoring highlights in 2006 include: an eruption of Augustine Volcano, a volcanic-tectonic earthquake swarm at Mount Martin, elevated seismicity and volcanic unrest at Fourpeaked Mountain, and elevated seismicity and low-level tremor at Mount Veniaminof and Korovin Volcano. A new seismic subnetwork was installed on Fourpeaked Mountain. This catalog includes: (1) descriptions and locations of seismic instrumentation deployed in the field during 2006, (2) a description of earthquake detection, recording, analysis, and data archival systems, (3) a description of seismic velocity models used for earthquake locations, (4) a summary of earthquakes located in 2006, and (5) an accompanying UNIX tar-file with a summary of earthquake origin times, hypocenters, magnitudes, phase arrival times, location quality statistics, daily station usage statistics, and all files used to determine the earthquake locations in 2006.

  19. Mantle phase changes and deep-earthquake faulting in subducting lithosphere.

    PubMed

    Kirby, S H; Durham, W B; Stern, L A

    1991-04-12

    Inclined zones of earthquakes are the primary expression of lithosphere subduction. A distinct deep population of subduction-zone earthquakes occurs at depths of 350 to 690 kilometers. At those depths ordinary brittle fracture and frictional sliding, the faulting processes of shallow earthquakes, are not expected. A fresh understanding of these deep earthquakes comes from developments in several areas of experimental and theoretical geophysics, including the discovery and characterization of transformational faulting, a shear instability connected with localized phase transformations under nonhydrostatic stress. These developments support the hypothesis that deep earthquakes represent transformational faulting in a wedge of olivine-rich peridotite that is likely to persist metastably in coldest plate interiors to depths as great as 690 km. Predictions based on this deep structure of mantle phase changes are consistent with the global depth distribution of deep earthquakes, the maximum depths of earthquakes in individual subductions zones, and key source characteristics of deep events. PMID:17769266

  20. GEM - The Global Earthquake Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A.

    2009-04-01

    Over 500,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. In many seismic regions, no hazard and risk models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts, or available only for commercial purposes. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers the need for an openly accessible risk management tool. GEM is an internationally sanctioned public private partnership initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) which will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating earthquake hazard and risk, and will be designed to serve as the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, at global, regional and local scale. The work is organized in three modules: hazard, risk, and socio-economic impact. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, building vulnerability, and the distribution of population and of exposed values and facilities. The socio-economic impact module delivers tools for making educated decisions to mitigate and manage risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool, with open source code and a map-based graphical interface. The underlying data will be open wherever possible, and its modular input and output will be adapted to multiple user groups: scientists and engineers, risk managers and decision makers in the public and private sectors, and the public-at- large. GEM will be the first global model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence. Its development will occur in a

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