Science.gov

Sample records for ecological simulation modeling

  1. Simulation of socio-ecological impacts: Modeling a fishing village

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, Philip C.

    1982-03-01

    The interrelationship of society and environment is addressed here through the study of a remote fishing village of 750 people. An interdisciplinary study evaluated demographic, economic, and social aspects of the community, and simulation modeling was used to integrate these societal characteristics with environmental factors. The population of the village had grown gradually until the 1960's, when a decline began. Out-migration correlated with declining fish harvests and with increased communications with urban centers. Fishing had provided the greatest economic opportunity, followed by logging. A survey was conducted to investigate the costs and revenues of village fishermen. Diversification characterized the local fleet, and analysis showed that rates of return on investment in the current year were equal between vessel types. The variable levels and rate parameters of the demographic, economic, and social components of the model were specified through static and time series data. Sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of uncertainty, and validation tests against known historical changes were also conducted. Forecast scenarios identified the development options under several levels of fish abundance and investment. The weight given to ecological versus economic resource management registered disproportionate effects due to the interaction between investment and migration rates and resource stochasticity. This finding argues against a “golden mean” rule for evaluating policy trade-offs and argues for the importance of using a dynamic, socio-ecological perspective in designing development policies for rural communities.

  2. Computer simulation model of ecological succession in Australian subtropical rainforest. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1407

    SciTech Connect

    Shugart, H.H.; Mortlock, A.T.; Hopkins, M.S.; Burgess, I.P.

    1980-04-01

    KIAMBRAM, a detailed simulation model for ecological succession in an Australian subtropical humid rainforest is documented in respect to model structure. Model parameters for 125 rainforest tree species are provided. A listing of the KIAMBRAM model and a sample of output from the model is included.

  3. Predicting waste stabilization pond performance using an ecological simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    New, G.R.

    1987-01-01

    Waste stabilization ponds (lagoons) are often favored in small communities because of their low cost and ease of operation. Most models currently used to predict performance are empirical or fail to address the primary lagoon cell. Empirical methods for predicting lagoon performance have been found to be off as much as 248 percent when used on a system other than the one they were developed for. Also, the present models developed for the primary cell lack the ability to predict parameters other than biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and nitrogen. Oxygen consumption is usually estimated from BOD utilization. LAGOON is a fortran program which models the biogeochemical processes characteristic of the primary cell of facultative lagoons. Model parameters can be measured from lagoons in the vicinity of a proposed lagoon or estimated from laboratory studies. The model was calibrated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah lagoon data then validated utilizing a subset of the Corinne Utah data.

  4. Simulating pesticides in ditches to assess ecological risk (SPIDER): I. Model description.

    PubMed

    Renaud, Fabrice G; Bellamy, Pat H; Brown, Colin D

    2008-05-01

    Risk assessment for pesticides in the aquatic environment relies on a comparison between estimated exposure concentrations in surface water bodies and endpoints from a series of effect tests. Many field- and catchment-scale models have been developed, ranging from simple empirical models to comprehensive, physically-based, distributed models that require complex parameterisation, often through inverse modelling methods. Routine use of catchment models for assessment and management of pesticides requires a tool that is comprehensive in being able to address all major routes of entry of pesticides into surface water and that has reasonable parameter requirements. Current models either focus primarily on transport of pesticides in surface runoff or are restricted in application because they require calibration against data from detailed monitoring programmes. SPIDER (Simulating Pesticides In Ditches to assess Ecological Risk) was developed to address the gap in models available to simulate pesticide exposure within networks of small surface water bodies (ditches and streams) in support of ecological risk assessment for pesticides. SPIDER is a locally distributed, capacitance-based model that accounts for pesticide entry into surface water bodies via spray drift, surface runoff, interlayer flow and drainflow and that can be used for small agricultural catchments. This paper provides a detailed description of the model. PMID:18275984

  5. CELSS-3D: a broad computer model simulating a controlled ecological life support system.

    PubMed

    Schneegurt, M A; Sherman, L A

    1997-01-01

    CELSS-3D is a dynamic, deterministic, and discrete computer simulation of a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) focusing on biological issues. A series of linear difference equations within a graphic-based modeling environment, the IThink program, was used to describe a modular CELSS system. The overall model included submodels for crop growth chambers, food storage reservoirs, the human crew, a cyanobacterial growth chamber, a waste processor, fixed nitrogen reservoirs, and the atmospheric gases, CO, O2, and N2. The primary process variable was carbon, although oxygen and nitrogen flows were also modeled. Most of the input data used in CELSS-3D were from published sources. A separate linear optimization program, What'sBest!, was used to compare options for the crew's vegetarian diet. CELSS-3D simulations were run for the equivalent of 3 years with a 1-h time interval. Output from simulations run under nominal conditions was used to illustrate dynamic changes in the concentrations of atmospheric gases. The modular design of CELSS-3D will allow other configurations and various failure scenarios to be tested and compared. PMID:11540449

  6. A FUNCTIONAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS SIMULATION (EDYS) MODEL, WITH APPLICATIONS FOR ARMY AND OTHER FEDERAL LAND MANAGERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A key component of this capability package is the Ecological Dynamics Simulation (EDYS) model. The model provides the capability to predict responses of training lands to both military and non-military stressors and facilitates linking the cost of training and testing land mainte...

  7. Simulating pesticides in ditches to assess ecological risk (SPIDER): II. Benchmarking for the drainage model.

    PubMed

    Renaud, Fabrice G; Brown, Colin D

    2008-05-01

    SPIDER (simulating pesticides in ditches to assess ecological risk) is a locally distributed, capacitance-based model that accounts for pesticide entry into surface water bodies via spray drift, surface runoff, interlayer flow and drainage. SPIDER was developed for application to small agricultural catchments. Transport of pesticide from site of application to surface water via subsurface field drains is one of the major routes of entry to surface water. Several pesticide fate models describe transfer of pesticide via drainflow, notably MACRO which has been evaluated against field data in several studies. The capacity of SPIDER to simulate drainflow and pesticide concentration in drain water was evaluated against two datasets that had been used previously to evaluate MACRO independently of this study: a plot experiment at Cockle Park and a field experiment at Maidwell, both located in the UK. In both circumstances, SPIDER was able to reproduce drain hydrographs relatively well with no or limited calibration. At Cockle Park, simulated and observed drainflow over the season were 240 and 278 mm, respectively with a Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSME) coefficient of 0.32 whilst at Maidwell they were 259 and 296 mm, respectively with a NSME coefficient of 0.55. Prediction of maximum isoproturon concentration at Cockle Park by SPIDER and MACRO were 5.3 and 13.1 microg L(- 1) respectively compared to the 3.8 microg L(- 1) measured in the field, whilst pesticide load to drains over the season were 0.22 and 1.53 g, respectively, compared to an observed load of 0.35 g. Maximum sulfosulfuron concentration at Maidwell were 2.3, 3.9 and 5.4 microg L(- 1) for observed and as simulated by SPIDER and MACRO, respectively and pesticide loading to drains of the season was 0.77, 5.61, 4.77 g, respectively. Results from the sensitivity analysis showed that the sensitivity of SPIDER compared favourably to that of several other capacity models but was more sensitive than MACRO to

  8. The use of typed lambda calculus for comprehension and construction of simulation models in the domain of ecology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Uschold, Michael

    1992-01-01

    We are concerned with two important issues in simulation modelling: model comprehension and model construction. Model comprehension is limited because many important choices taken during the modelling process are not documented. This makes it difficult for models to be modified or used by others. A key factor hindering model construction is the vast modelling search space which must be navigated. This is exacerbated by the fact that many modellers are unfamiliar with the terms and concepts catered to by current tools. The root of both problems is the lack of facilities for representing or reasoning about domain concepts in current simulation technology. The basis for our achievements in both of these areas is the development of a language with two distinct levels; one for representing domain information, and the other for representing the simulation model. Of equal importance, is the fact that we make formal connections between these two levels. The domain we are concerned with is ecological modelling. This language, called Elklogic, is based on the typed lambda calculus. Important features include a rich type structure, the use of various higher order functions, and semantics. This enables complex expressions to be constructed from relatively few primitives. The meaning of each expression can be determined in terms of the domain, the simulation model, or the relationship between the two. We describe a novel representation for sets and substructure, and a variety of other general concepts that are especially useful in the ecological domain. We use the type structure in a novel way: for controlling the modelling search space, rather than a proof search space. We facilitate model comprehension by representing modelling decisions that are embodied in the simulation model. We represent the simulation model separately from, but in terms of a domain mode. The explicit links between the two models constitute the modelling decisions. The semantics of Elklogic enables

  9. A Simulated Stream Ecology Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zampella, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    Describes a simulated field experience to study stream ecology in the classroom. Secondary students determine the composition of the stream community, describe the distribution of the benthic invertebrates, and design a food web. (Author/MA)

  10. Simulation of regionally ecological land based on a cellular automation model: a case study of Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

    2012-08-01

    Ecological land is like the "liver" of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

  11. Simulation of Regionally Ecological Land Based on a Cellular Automation Model: A Case Study of Beijing, China

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Hualin; Kung, Chih-Chun; Zhang, Yanting; Li, Xiubin

    2012-01-01

    Ecological land is like the “liver” of a city and is very useful to public health. Ecological land change is a spatially dynamic non-linear process under the interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors at different scales. In this study, by setting up natural development scenario, object orientation scenario and ecosystem priority scenario, a Cellular Automation (CA) model has been established to simulate the evolution pattern of ecological land in Beijing in the year 2020. Under the natural development scenario, most of ecological land will be replaced by construction land and crop land. But under the scenarios of object orientation and ecosystem priority, the ecological land area will increase, especially under the scenario of ecosystem priority. When considering the factors such as total area of ecological land, loss of key ecological land and spatial patterns of land use, the scenarios from priority to inferiority are ecosystem priority, object orientation and natural development, so future land management policies in Beijing should be focused on conversion of cropland to forest, wetland protection and prohibition of exploitation of natural protection zones, water source areas and forest parks to maintain the safety of the regional ecosystem. PMID:23066410

  12. Linking Bayesian and Agent-Based Models to Simulate Complex Social-Ecological Systems in the Sonoran Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pope, A.; Gimblett, R.

    2013-12-01

    Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent's water demand. Depth-to-groundwater was then used as an indicator of unique vegetation guilds within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation guild provides varying levels of ecosystem services, the changes of which, along with changes in depth-to-groundwater, feedback to influence agent behavior. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine resilience of semi-arid riparian corridors and agent behavior under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  13. Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Box, Elgene O.

    1988-01-01

    In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.

  14. The possibility of coexistence and co-development in language competition: ecology-society computational model and simulation.

    PubMed

    Yun, Jian; Shang, Song-Chao; Wei, Xiao-Dan; Liu, Shuang; Li, Zhi-Jie

    2016-01-01

    Language is characterized by both ecological properties and social properties, and competition is the basic form of language evolution. The rise and decline of one language is a result of competition between languages. Moreover, this rise and decline directly influences the diversity of human culture. Mathematics and computer modeling for language competition has been a popular topic in the fields of linguistics, mathematics, computer science, ecology, and other disciplines. Currently, there are several problems in the research on language competition modeling. First, comprehensive mathematical analysis is absent in most studies of language competition models. Next, most language competition models are based on the assumption that one language in the model is stronger than the other. These studies tend to ignore cases where there is a balance of power in the competition. The competition between two well-matched languages is more practical, because it can facilitate the co-development of two languages. A third issue with current studies is that many studies have an evolution result where the weaker language inevitably goes extinct. From the integrated point of view of ecology and sociology, this paper improves the Lotka-Volterra model and basic reaction-diffusion model to propose an "ecology-society" computational model for describing language competition. Furthermore, a strict and comprehensive mathematical analysis was made for the stability of the equilibria. Two languages in competition may be either well-matched or greatly different in strength, which was reflected in the experimental design. The results revealed that language coexistence, and even co-development, are likely to occur during language competition. PMID:27386304

  15. Ecological model of disaster management.

    PubMed

    Beaton, Randal; Bridges, Elizabeth; Salazar, Mary K; Oberle, Mark W; Stergachis, Andy; Thompson, Jack; Butterfield, Patricia

    2008-11-01

    The ecological model of disaster management provides a framework to guide occupational health nurses who are developing disaster management programs.This ecological model assumes that disaster planning, preparedness, response, and recovery occur at various levels of the organization. These nested, increasingly complex organizational levels include individual and family, workplace, community, state, tribal, federal, and global levels. The ecological model hypothesizes that these levels interact and these dynamic interactions determine disaster planning, preparedness, response, and recovery outcomes. In addition to the features of the hazard or disaster, it is also assumed that parallel disaster planning, preparedness, and response elements, logistical challenges, and flexibility, sustainability, and rehabilitation elements occur at each level of the ecological model. Finally, the model assumes that evaluation of response and recovery efforts should inform future planning and preparedness efforts. PMID:19051571

  16. COFLO: A Computer Aid for Teaching Ecological Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le vow, Roy B.

    A computer-assisted course was designed to provide students with an understanding of modeling and simulation techniques in quantitiative ecology. It deals with continuous systems and has two segments. One develops mathematical and computer tools, beginning with abstract systems and their relation to physical systems. Modeling principles are next…

  17. Ecological reality and model validation

    SciTech Connect

    Cale, Jr, W. G.; Shugart, H. H.

    1980-01-01

    Definitions of model realism and model validation are developed. Ecological and mathematical arguments are then presented to show that model equations which explicitly treat ecosystem processes can be systematically improved such that greater realism is attained and the condition of validity is approached. Several examples are presented.

  18. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-04-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  19. Exploring an Ecologically Sustainable Scheme for Landscape Restoration of Abandoned Mine Land: Scenario-Based Simulation Integrated Linear Programming and CLUE-S Model

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Liping; Zhang, Shiwen; Huang, Yajie; Cao, Meng; Huang, Yuanfang; Zhang, Hongyan

    2016-01-01

    Understanding abandoned mine land (AML) changes during land reclamation is crucial for reusing damaged land resources and formulating sound ecological restoration policies. This study combines the linear programming (LP) model and the CLUE-S model to simulate land-use dynamics in the Mentougou District (Beijing, China) from 2007 to 2020 under three reclamation scenarios, that is, the planning scenario based on the general land-use plan in study area (scenario 1), maximal comprehensive benefits (scenario 2), and maximal ecosystem service value (scenario 3). Nine landscape-scale graph metrics were then selected to describe the landscape characteristics. The results show that the coupled model presented can simulate the dynamics of AML effectively and the spatially explicit transformations of AML were different. New cultivated land dominates in scenario 1, while construction land and forest land account for major percentages in scenarios 2 and 3, respectively. Scenario 3 has an advantage in most of the selected indices as the patches combined most closely. To conclude, reclaiming AML by transformation into more forest can reduce the variability and maintain the stability of the landscape ecological system in study area. These findings contribute to better mapping AML dynamics and providing policy support for the management of AML. PMID:27023575

  20. Modeling extreme risks in ecology.

    PubMed

    Burgman, Mark; Franklin, James; Hayes, Keith R; Hosack, Geoffrey R; Peters, Gareth W; Sisson, Scott A

    2012-11-01

    Extreme risks in ecology are typified by circumstances in which data are sporadic or unavailable, understanding is poor, and decisions are urgently needed. Expert judgments are pervasive and disagreements among experts are commonplace. We outline approaches to evaluating extreme risks in ecology that rely on stochastic simulation, with a particular focus on methods to evaluate the likelihood of extinction and quasi-extinction of threatened species, and the likelihood of establishment and spread of invasive pests. We evaluate the importance of assumptions in these assessments and the potential of some new approaches to account for these uncertainties, including hierarchical estimation procedures and generalized extreme value distributions. We conclude by examining the treatment of consequences in extreme risk analysis in ecology and how expert judgment may better be harnessed to evaluate extreme risks. PMID:22817845

  1. Long-term impacts of selective logging on two Amazonian tree species with contrasting ecological and reproductive characteristics: inferences from Eco-gene model simulations.

    PubMed

    Vinson, C C; Kanashiro, M; Sebbenn, A M; Williams, T C R; Harris, S A; Boshier, D H

    2015-08-01

    The impact of logging and subsequent recovery after logging is predicted to vary depending on specific life history traits of the logged species. The Eco-gene simulation model was used to evaluate the long-term impacts of selective logging over 300 years on two contrasting Brazilian Amazon tree species, Dipteryx odorata and Jacaranda copaia. D. odorata (Leguminosae), a slow growing climax tree, occurs at very low densities, whereas J. copaia (Bignoniaceae) is a fast growing pioneer tree that occurs at high densities. Microsatellite multilocus genotypes of the pre-logging populations were used as data inputs for the Eco-gene model and post-logging genetic data was used to verify the output from the simulations. Overall, under current Brazilian forest management regulations, there were neither short nor long-term impacts on J. copaia. By contrast, D. odorata cannot be sustainably logged under current regulations, a sustainable scenario was achieved by increasing the minimum cutting diameter at breast height from 50 to 100 cm over 30-year logging cycles. Genetic parameters were only slightly affected by selective logging, with reductions in the numbers of alleles and single genotypes. In the short term, the loss of alleles seen in J. copaia simulations was the same as in real data, whereas fewer alleles were lost in D. odorata simulations than in the field. The different impacts and periods of recovery for each species support the idea that ecological and genetic information are essential at species, ecological guild or reproductive group levels to help derive sustainable management scenarios for tropical forests. PMID:24424164

  2. Long-term impacts of selective logging on two Amazonian tree species with contrasting ecological and reproductive characteristics: inferences from Eco-gene model simulations

    PubMed Central

    Vinson, C C; Kanashiro, M; Sebbenn, A M; Williams, T CR; Harris, S A; Boshier, D H

    2015-01-01

    The impact of logging and subsequent recovery after logging is predicted to vary depending on specific life history traits of the logged species. The Eco-gene simulation model was used to evaluate the long-term impacts of selective logging over 300 years on two contrasting Brazilian Amazon tree species, Dipteryx odorata and Jacaranda copaia. D. odorata (Leguminosae), a slow growing climax tree, occurs at very low densities, whereas J. copaia (Bignoniaceae) is a fast growing pioneer tree that occurs at high densities. Microsatellite multilocus genotypes of the pre-logging populations were used as data inputs for the Eco-gene model and post-logging genetic data was used to verify the output from the simulations. Overall, under current Brazilian forest management regulations, there were neither short nor long-term impacts on J. copaia. By contrast, D. odorata cannot be sustainably logged under current regulations, a sustainable scenario was achieved by increasing the minimum cutting diameter at breast height from 50 to 100 cm over 30-year logging cycles. Genetic parameters were only slightly affected by selective logging, with reductions in the numbers of alleles and single genotypes. In the short term, the loss of alleles seen in J. copaia simulations was the same as in real data, whereas fewer alleles were lost in D. odorata simulations than in the field. The different impacts and periods of recovery for each species support the idea that ecological and genetic information are essential at species, ecological guild or reproductive group levels to help derive sustainable management scenarios for tropical forests. PMID:24424164

  3. Cosmic emergy based ecological systems modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H.; Chen, G. Q.; Ji, X.

    2010-09-01

    Ecological systems modelling based on the unified biophysical measure of cosmic emergy in terms of embodied cosmic exergy is illustrated in this paper with ecological accounting, simulation and scenario analysis, by a case study for the regional socio-economic ecosystem associated with the municipality of Beijing. An urbanized regional ecosystem model with eight subsystems of natural support, agriculture, urban production, population, finance, land area, potential environmental impact, and culture is representatively presented in exergy circuit language with 12 state variables governing by corresponding ecodynamic equations, and 60 flows and auxiliary variables. To characterize the regional socio-economy as an ecosystem, a series of ecological indicators based on cosmic emergy are devised. For a systematic ecological account, cosmic exergy transformities are provided for various dimensions including climate flows, natural resources, industrial products, cultural products, population with educational hierarchy, and environmental emissions. For the urban ecosystem of Beijing in the period from 1990 to 2005, ecological accounting is carried out and characterized in full details. Taking 2000 as the starting point, systems modelling is realized to predict the urban evolution in a one hundred time horizon. For systems regulation, scenario analyses with essential policy-making implications are made to illustrate the long term systems effects of the expected water diversion and rise in energy price.

  4. Spread of insect-vectored plant pathogens: use of simulation models to assess the role of ecological and operational factors

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The spread of insect-vectored pathogens is dependent on many factors. As a consequence, it is often difficult to predict effects of manipulating one or more factors on pathogen spread. One method to aid in understanding the role of ecological and operational factors on pathogen spread is the use o...

  5. Simulated coevolution in a mutating ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.

    2000-03-01

    The bit-string Penna model is used to simulate the competition between an asexual parthenogenetic and a sexual population sharing the same environment. A newborn of either population can mutate and become a part of the other with some probability. In a stable environment the sexual population soon dies out. When an infestation by rapidly mutating genetically coupled parasites is introduced, however, sexual reproduction prevails, as predicted by the so-called Red Queen hypothesis for the evolution of sex.

  6. Carbon dioxide emissions from Tucuruí reservoir (Amazon biome): New findings based on three-dimensional ecological model simulations.

    PubMed

    Curtarelli, Marcelo Pedroso; Ogashawara, Igor; de Araújo, Carlos Alberto Sampaio; Lorenzzetti, João Antônio; Leão, Joaquim Antônio Dionísio; Alcântara, Enner; Stech, José Luiz

    2016-05-01

    We used a three-dimensional model to assess the dynamics of diffusive carbon dioxide flux (F(CO2)) from a hydroelectric reservoir located at Amazon rainforest. Our results showed that for the studied periods (2013 summer/wet and winter/dry seasons) the surface averaged F(CO2) presented similar behaviors, with regular emissions peaks. The mean daily surface averaged F(CO2) showed no significant difference between the seasons (p>0.01), with values around -1338mg Cm-2day-1 (summer/wet) and -1395mg Cm-2day-1 (winter/dry). At diel scale, the F(CO2) was large during the night and morning and low during the afternoon in both seasons. Regarding its spatial distribution, the F(CO2) showed to be more heterogeneous during the summer/wet than during the winter/dry season. The highest F(CO2) were observed at transition zone (-300mg Cm-2h-1) during summer and at littoral zone (-55mg Cm-2h-1) during the winter. The total CO2 emitted by the reservoir along 2013 year was estimated to be 1.1Tg C year-1. By extrapolating our results we found that the total carbon emitted by all Amazonian reservoirs can be around 7Tg C year-1, which is 22% lower than the previous published estimate. This significant difference should not be neglected in the carbon inventories since the carbon emission is a key factor when comparing the environmental impacts of different sources of electricity generation and can influences decision makers in the selection of the more appropriate source of electricity and, in case of hydroelectricity, the geographical position of the reservoirs. PMID:26914722

  7. DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES, STABILITY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The image of a ball rolling along a series of hills and valleys is an effective heuristic by which to communicate stability concepts in ecology. However, the dynamics of this landscape model have little to do with ecological systems. Other landscape representations, however, are ...

  8. Ecological Impacts of the Cerro Grande Fire: Predicting Elk Movement and Distribution Patterns in Response to Vegetative Recovery through Simulation Modeling October 2005

    SciTech Connect

    S.P. Rupp

    2005-10-01

    In May 2000, the Cerro Grande Fire burned approximately 17,200 ha in north-central New Mexico as the result of an escaped prescribed burn initiated by Bandelier National Monument. The interaction of large-scale fires, vegetation, and elk is an important management issue, but few studies have addressed the ecological implications of vegetative succession and landscape heterogeneity on ungulate populations following large-scale disturbance events. Primary objectives of this research were to identify elk movement pathways on local and landscape scales, to determine environmental factors that influence elk movement, and to evaluate movement and distribution patterns in relation to spatial and temporal aspects of the Cerro Grande Fire. Data collection and assimilation reflect the collaborative efforts of National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Department of Energy (Los Alamos National Laboratory) personnel. Geographic positioning system (GPS) collars were used to track 54 elk over a period of 3+ years and locational data were incorporated into a multi-layered geographic information system (GIS) for analysis. Preliminary tests of GPS collar accuracy indicated a strong effect of 2D fixes on position acquisition rates (PARs) depending on time of day and season of year. Slope, aspect, elevation, and land cover type affected dilution of precision (DOP) values for both 2D and 3D fixes, although significant relationships varied from positive to negative making it difficult to delineate the mechanism behind significant responses. Two-dimensional fixes accounted for 34% of all successfully acquired locations and may affect results in which those data were used. Overall position acquisition rate was 93.3% and mean DOP values were consistently in the range of 4.0 to 6.0 leading to the conclusion collar accuracy was acceptable for modeling purposes. SAVANNA, a spatially explicit, process-oriented ecosystem model, was used to simulate successional dynamics. Inputs to the

  9. WASP TRANSPORT MODELING AND WASP ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  10. Spatial Uncertainty Analysis of Ecological Models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, H.I.; Ashwood, T.L.; Jackson, B.L.; King, A.W.

    2000-09-02

    The authors evaluated the sensitivity of a habitat model and a source-sink population model to spatial uncertainty in landscapes with different statistical properties and for hypothetical species with different habitat requirements. Sequential indicator simulation generated alternative landscapes from a source map. Their results showed that spatial uncertainty was highest for landscapes in which suitable habitat was rare and spatially uncorrelated. Although, they were able to exert some control over the degree of spatial uncertainty by varying the sampling density drawn from the source map, intrinsic spatial properties (i.e., average frequency and degree of spatial autocorrelation) played a dominant role in determining variation among realized maps. To evaluate the ecological significance of landscape variation, they compared the variation in predictions from a simple habitat model to variation among landscapes for three species types. Spatial uncertainty in predictions of the amount of source habitat depended on both the spatial life history characteristics of the species and the statistical attributes of the synthetic landscapes. Species differences were greatest when the landscape contained a high proportion of suitable habitat. The predicted amount of source habitat was greater for edge-dependent (interior) species in landscapes with spatially uncorrelated(correlated) suitable habitat. A source-sink model demonstrated that, although variation among landscapes resulted in relatively little variation in overall population growth rate, this spatial uncertainty was sufficient in some situations, to produce qualitatively different predictions about population viability (i.e., population decline vs. increase).

  11. An Interdisciplinary Model for Teaching Evolutionary Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coletta, John

    1992-01-01

    Describes a general systems evolutionary model and demonstrates how a previously established ecological model is a function of its past development based on the evolution of the rock, nutrient, and water cycles. Discusses the applications of the model in environmental education. (MDH)

  12. The Integration of Ecological processes into a Multi-layer Higher order closure Land Surface Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, K. Y.; Paw U, K. T.; Chen, S. H.

    2015-12-01

    The ecological impacts on biogeophysical and biogeochemical processes were investigated by a series of simulations conducted by a multi-layer higher order closure land surface model (UCD-ACASA) driven by a variety of meteorological and ecological conditions. The results show that the implementation of a more realistic ecological dataset, once carefully quality controlled, can significantly improve the biogeophysical and biogeochemical simulations, which suggests that the ecological impacts on surface layer simulations are as important as the reliability of the selected land surface model. Therefore, the ability to simulate realistic ecological conditions is imperative and beneficial to improve weather and climate simulations. We coupled the ecological processes in UCD-ACASA by adapting the fully prognostic plant carbon and nitrogen dynamics from the version 4.5 of the Community Land Model (CLM4.5). The simulated ecological conditions are sensitive to both radiative transfer processes and leaf distribution inside the canopy, and the multi-layer feature built in UCD-ACASA enables it to describe these properties more realistically as compared to the other big-leaf models. We conducted another set of simulations to examine the reliability of the simulated biogeophysical, biogeochemical and ecological results. The simulated Leaf Area Index (LAI) was compared with a high resolution remotely sensed LAI dataset, and the results show that the simulated LAI tends to overestimate mean LAI and underestimate annual LAI variation at the selected sites. However, the simulated LAI is reasonable enough to produce comparable simulation results against the simulations driven directly by remotely sensed LAI for the tested biogeophysical and biogeochemical fluxes. The results show that ecological impacts on biogeophysical and biogeochemical simulations are significant, and the implementation of biogeochemical processes into a land surface model has the potential to improve weather and

  13. Individual-based models in ecology after four decades

    PubMed Central

    Grimm, Volker

    2014-01-01

    Individual-based models simulate populations and communities by following individuals and their properties. They have been used in ecology for more than four decades, with their use and ubiquity in ecology growing rapidly in the last two decades. Individual-based models have been used for many applied or “pragmatic” issues, such as informing the protection and management of particular populations in specific locations, but their use in addressing theoretical questions has also grown rapidly, recently helping us to understand how the sets of traits of individual organisms influence the assembly of communities and food webs. Individual-based models will play an increasingly important role in questions posed by complex ecological systems. PMID:24991416

  14. Simulating the effects of fire and climate change on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes using the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

    SciTech Connect

    Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.; Running, S.W.

    1995-12-31

    A mechanistic successional model, FIRE-BGC (a FIRE BioGeoChemical succession model), has been developed to investigate the role of fire and climate on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests. This FIRE-BGC application explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. Predictions of evapotranspiration are contrasted with and without fire over 200 years of simulation for the McDonald Drainage, Glacier National Park under current climate conditions are provided as an example of the potential of FIRE-BGC.

  15. Exploring the Realized Niche: Simulated Ecological Mapping with a Microcomputer.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, J. W.

    1983-01-01

    Describes a computer program based upon field observations of littoral zonation modified by a small stream. The program employs user-defined color graphic characters to display simulated ecological maps representing the patterning of organisms in response to local values of niche limiting factors. (Author/JN)

  16. Simulating Ecological Complexity Using the Example of Pesticides in Ecosystems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muir, Patricia S.; McCune, Bruce

    1993-01-01

    Describes a simulation exercise developed for an introductory biology course for nonmajors. The simulation focuses on the control of western spruce budworms in forests of the western United States. A nonlinear, multivariate simulation model is used. (PR)

  17. Crisis in Context Theory: An Ecological Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Myer, Rick A.; Moore, Holly B.

    2006-01-01

    This article outlines a theory for understanding the impact of a crisis on individuals and organizations. Crisis in context theory (CCT) is grounded in an ecological model and based on literature in the field of crisis intervention and on personal experiences of the authors. A graphic representation denotes key components and premises of CCT,…

  18. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  19. Modelling macroevolutionary patterns: An ecological perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solé, R. V.

    Complex ecosystems display well-defined macroscopic regularities suggesting that some generic dynamical rules operate at the ecosystem level where the relevance of the single-species features is rather weak. Most evolutionary theory deals with genes/species as the units of selection operating on populations. However, the role of ecological networks and external perturbations seems to be at least as important as microevolutionary events based on natural selection operating at the smalle st levels. Here we review some of the recent theoretical approximations to ecosystem evolution based on network dynamics. It is suggested that the evolutionary dynamics of ecological networks underlie fundamental laws of ecology-level dynamics which naturally decouple micro from macroevolutionary dynamics. Using simple models of macroevolution, most of the available statistical information obtained from the fossil record is remarkably well reproduced and explained within a new theoretical framework.

  20. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE INFORMATION NEEDS FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. This report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. ome agric...

  1. Regional Variation Exaggerates Ecological Divergence in Niche Models

    PubMed Central

    Godsoe, William

    2010-01-01

    Traditionally, the goal of systematics has been to produce classifications that are both strongly supported and biologically meaningful. In recent years several authors have advocated complementing phylogenetic analyses with measures of another form of evolutionary change, ecological divergence. These analyses frequently rely on ecological niche models to determine if species have comparable environmental requirements, but it has heretofore been difficult to test the accuracy of these inferences. To address this problem, I simulate the geographic distributions of allopatric species with identical environmental requirements. I then test whether existing analyses based on geographic distributions will correctly infer that the 2 species' requirements are identical. This work demonstrates that when taxa disperse to different environments, many analyses can erroneously infer changes in environmental requirements, but the severity of the problem depends on the method used. As this could exaggerate the number of ecologically distinct taxa in a clade, I suggest diagnostics to mitigate this problem. PMID:20525637

  2. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  3. Agent-based modeling in ecological economics.

    PubMed

    Heckbert, Scott; Baynes, Tim; Reeson, Andrew

    2010-01-01

    Interconnected social and environmental systems are the domain of ecological economics, and models can be used to explore feedbacks and adaptations inherent in these systems. Agent-based modeling (ABM) represents autonomous entities, each with dynamic behavior and heterogeneous characteristics. Agents interact with each other and their environment, resulting in emergent outcomes at the macroscale that can be used to quantitatively analyze complex systems. ABM is contributing to research questions in ecological economics in the areas of natural resource management and land-use change, urban systems modeling, market dynamics, changes in consumer attitudes, innovation, and diffusion of technology and management practices, commons dilemmas and self-governance, and psychological aspects to human decision making and behavior change. Frontiers for ABM research in ecological economics involve advancing the empirical calibration and validation of models through mixed methods, including surveys, interviews, participatory modeling, and, notably, experimental economics to test specific decision-making hypotheses. Linking ABM with other modeling techniques at the level of emergent properties will further advance efforts to understand dynamics of social-environmental systems. PMID:20146761

  4. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model

  5. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  6. Recent trends in environmental and ecological modelling.

    PubMed

    Jørgensen, S E

    1999-01-01

    The paper outlines the history of modelling and presents a status of ecological modelling: what is the modelling effort of various ecosystem and various environmental problems. Typical validation results and prognosis validation results of a eutrophication model are applied as an illustration of what models can do in environmental management. Structural dynamic modelling which considers parameters that are changed currently by optimisation of a so-called goal function is presented as one of the recent development to overcome one of the most crucial problems in modelling, namely to consider adaptation. Two case studies are presented to illustrate this approach, namely application of biomanipulation and eutrophication of a shallow lake. Forecast on the directions of development is finally presented. PMID:10683676

  7. Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Matthew R.

    2012-01-01

    The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

  8. Handbook of Scaling Methods in Aquatic Ecology: Measurement, Analysis, Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marrasé, Celia

    2004-03-01

    Researchers in aquatic sciences have long been interested in describing temporal and biological heterogeneities at different observation scales. During the 1970s, scaling studies received a boost from the application of spectral analysis to ecological sciences. Since then, new insights have evolved in parallel with advances in observation technologies and computing power. In particular, during the last 2 decades, novel theoretical achievements were facilitated by the use of microstructure profilers, the application of mathematical tools derived from fractal and wavelet analyses, and the increase in computing power that allowed more complex simulations. The idea of publishing the Handbook of Scaling Methods in Aquatic Ecology arose out of a special session of the 2001 Aquatic Science Meeting of the American Society of Limnology and Oceanography. The edition of the book is timely, because it compiles a good amount of the work done in these last 2 decades. The book is comprised of three sections: measurements, analysis, and simulation. Each contains some review chapters and a number of more specialized contributions. The contents are multidisciplinary and focus on biological and physical processes and their interactions over a broad range of scales, from micro-layers to ocean basins. The handbook topics include high-resolution observation methodologies, as well as applications of different mathematical tools for analysis and simulation of spatial structures, time variability of physical and biological processes, and individual organism behavior. The scientific background of the authors is highly diverse, ensuring broad interest for the scientific community.

  9. Rainfall simulation experiments in ecological and conventional vineyards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adrian, Alexander; Brings, Christine; Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Iserloh, Thomas; Ries, Johannes B.

    2015-04-01

    In October 2014, the Trier University started a measurement series, which defines, compares and evaluates the behavior of runoff and soil erosion with different farming productions in vineyards. The research area is located in Kanzem, a traditional wine village in the Saar Valley (Rheinland-Palatinate, Germany). The test fields show different cultivation methods: ecological (with natural vegetation cover under and around the vines) and conventional cultivated rows of wine. By using the small portable rainfall simulator of Trier University it shall be proved if the assumption that there is more runoff and soil erosion in the conventional part than in the ecological part of the tillage system. Rainfall simulations assess the generation of overland flow, soil erosion and infiltration. So, a trend of soil erosion and runoff of the different cultivation techniques are noted. The objective of this work is to compare the geomorphological dynamics of two different tillage systems. Therefore, 30 rainfall simulations plots were evenly distributed on a west exposition hillside with different slope angels (8-25°), vegetation- and stone-covers. In concrete, the plot surface reaches from strongly covered soil across lithoidal surfaces to bare soil often with compacted lanes of typical using machines. In addition, by using the collected substrate, an estimation and distribution of the grain size of the eroded material shall be given. The eroded substrate is compared to soil samples of the test plots. The first results have shown that there is slightly more runoff and soil erosion in the ecological area than on the conventional part of the vineyard.

  10. Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium.

    PubMed

    Davies, Neil; Field, Dawn; Gavaghan, David; Holbrook, Sally J; Planes, Serge; Troyer, Matthias; Bonsall, Michael; Claudet, Joachim; Roderick, George; Schmitt, Russell J; Zettler, Linda Amaral; Berteaux, Véronique; Bossin, Hervé C; Cabasse, Charlotte; Collin, Antoine; Deck, John; Dell, Tony; Dunne, Jennifer; Gates, Ruth; Harfoot, Mike; Hench, James L; Hopuare, Marania; Kirch, Patrick; Kotoulas, Georgios; Kosenkov, Alex; Kusenko, Alex; Leichter, James J; Lenihan, Hunter; Magoulas, Antonios; Martinez, Neo; Meyer, Chris; Stoll, Benoit; Swalla, Billie; Tartakovsky, Daniel M; Murphy, Hinano Teavai; Turyshev, Slava; Valdvinos, Fernanda; Williams, Rich; Wood, Spencer

    2016-01-01

    Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine-terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions. PMID:26998258

  11. Aviation Safety Simulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Houser, Scott; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Simulation Model is a software tool that enables users to configure a terrain, a flight path, and an aircraft and simulate the aircraft's flight along the path. The simulation monitors the aircraft's proximity to terrain obstructions, and reports when the aircraft violates accepted minimum distances from an obstruction. This model design facilitates future enhancements to address other flight safety issues, particularly air and runway traffic scenarios. This report shows the user how to build a simulation scenario and run it. It also explains the model's output.

  12. Modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

  13. Modelling the unpredictability of future biodiversity in ecological networks.

    PubMed

    Ingram, Travis; Steel, Mike

    2010-06-01

    We consider the question of how accurately we can hope to predict future biodiversity in a world in which many interacting species are at risk of extinction. Simple models assuming that species' extinctions occur independently are easily analysed, but do not account for the fact that many species depend on or otherwise interact with each other. In this paper we evaluate the effect of explicitly incorporating ecological dependencies on the predictive ability of models of extinction. In particular, we compare a model in which species' extinction rates increase because of the extinction of their prey to a model in which the same average rate increase takes place, but in which extinctions occur independently from species to species. One might expect that including this ecological information would make the prediction of future biodiversity more accurate, but instead we find that accounting for food web dependencies reveals greater uncertainty. The expected loss of biodiversity over time is similar between the two models, but the variance in future biodiversity is considerably higher in the model that includes species interactions. This increased uncertainty is because of the non-independence of species-the tendency of two species to respond similarly to the loss of a species on which both depend. We use simulations to show that this increase in variance is robust to many variations of the model, and that its magnitude should be largest in food webs that are highly dependent on a few basal species. Our results should hold whenever ecological dependencies cause most species' extinction risks to covary positively, and illustrate how more information does not necessarily improve our ability to predict future biodiversity loss. PMID:20211629

  14. Dynamic simulation of the laboratory-scale controlled ecological life support system.

    PubMed

    Finn, C K; Srinivasan, V

    1995-01-01

    There are a number of design and control issues that need to be resolved in order to make a crop growth chamber an integral part of a controlled ecological life support system (CELSS) capable of supporting life on extended space missions. A modeling and simulation effort, along with the construction of an experimental testbed, are underway at NASA Ames Research Center to explore the long-term dynamic behavior of closed-loop life support systems. One problem that has been isolated for investigation is the stability and robustness of closed-loop systems over extended periods of time. Currently a crop growth chamber is being integrated with a solid waste processor to study closure of the carbon loop. A dynamic simulation model of the system was developed to evaluate system design options and operational alternatives. The model was also used to simulate the impact of system buffer size on the dynamic behavior of conditions inside the crop growth chamber. PMID:11538310

  15. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. PMID:26160664

  16. Computer Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Pronskikh, V. S.

    2014-05-09

    Verification and validation of computer codes and models used in simulation are two aspects of the scientific practice of high importance and have recently been discussed by philosophers of science. While verification is predominantly associated with the correctness of the way a model is represented by a computer code or algorithm, validation more often refers to model’s relation to the real world and its intended use. It has been argued that because complex simulations are generally not transparent to a practitioner, the Duhem problem can arise for verification and validation due to their entanglement; such an entanglement makes it impossible to distinguish whether a coding error or model’s general inadequacy to its target should be blamed in the case of the model failure. I argue that in order to disentangle verification and validation, a clear distinction between computer modeling (construction of mathematical computer models of elementary processes) and simulation (construction of models of composite objects and processes by means of numerical experimenting with them) needs to be made. Holding on to that distinction, I propose to relate verification (based on theoretical strategies such as inferences) to modeling and validation, which shares the common epistemology with experimentation, to simulation. To explain reasons of their intermittent entanglement I propose a weberian ideal-typical model of modeling and simulation as roles in practice. I suggest an approach to alleviate the Duhem problem for verification and validation generally applicable in practice and based on differences in epistemic strategies and scopes

  17. Theory Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Shlachter, Jack

    2012-08-23

    Los Alamos has a long history in theory, modeling and simulation. We focus on multidisciplinary teams that tackle complex problems. Theory, modeling and simulation are tools to solve problems just like an NMR spectrometer, a gas chromatograph or an electron microscope. Problems should be used to define the theoretical tools needed and not the other way around. Best results occur when theory and experiments are working together in a team.

  18. AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PRACTICE OF ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    No abstract. Modeling has become an important tool in the study of ecological systems, as a scan of the table of contents of any major ecological journal makes abundently clear. The development of a conceptual model can be an integral part of designing and carrying out any resear...

  19. Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drysdale, Alan; Thomas, Mark; Fresa, Mark; Wheeler, Ray

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to CELSS, a critical technology for the Space Exploration Initiative. OCAM (object-oriented CELSS analysis and modeling) models carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen recycling. Multiple crops and plant types can be simulated. Resource recovery options from inedible biomass include leaching, enzyme treatment, aerobic digestion, and mushroom and fish growth. The benefit of using many small crops overlapping in time, instead of a single large crop, is demonstrated. Unanticipated results include startup transients which reduce the benefit of multiple small crops. The relative contributions of mass, energy, and manpower to system cost are analyzed in order to determine appropriate research directions.

  20. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems.

    PubMed

    Galic, Nika; Schmolke, Amelie; Forbes, Valery; Baveco, Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2012-01-15

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices, however, incorporate very little ecology and base the risk estimates on the results of standard tests with several standard species. The main obstacles for a more ecologically relevant ERA are the lack of clear protection goals and the inherent complexity of ecosystems that is hard to approach empirically. In this paper, we argue that the ecosystem services framework offers an opportunity to define clear and ecologically relevant protection goals. At the same time, ecological models provide the tools to address ecological complexity to the degree needed to link measurement endpoints and ecosystem services, and to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. We focus on the ecosystem services relevant for agroecosystem functioning, including pollination, biocontrol and eutrophication effects and present modeling studies relevant for quantification of each of the services. The challenges of the ecosystem services approach are discussed as well as the limitations of ecological models in the context of ERA. A broad, multi-stakeholder dialog is necessary to aid the definition of protection goals in terms of services delivered by ecosystems and their parts. The need to capture spatio-temporal dynamics and possible interactions among service providers pose challenges for ecological models as a basis for decision making. However, we argue that both fields are advancing quickly and can prove very valuable in achieving more ecologically relevant ERA. PMID:21802704

  1. Stochastic Downscaling for Hydrodynamic and Ecological Modeling of Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlabing, D.; Eder, M.; Frassl, M.; Rinke, K.; Bárdossy, A.

    2012-04-01

    Weather generators are of interest in climate impact studies, because they allow different modi operandi: (1) More realizations of the past, (2) possible futures as defined by the modeler and (3) possible futures according to the combination of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and their Global Circulation Model (GCM) consequences. Climate modeling has huge inherently unquantifiable uncertainties, yet the results present themselves as single point values without any measure of uncertainty. Given this reduction of risk-relevant information, stochastic downscaling offers itself as a tool to recover the variability present in local measurements. One should bear in mind that the lake models that are fed with downscaling results are themselves deterministic and single runs may prove to be misleading. Especially population dynamics simulated by ecological models are sensitive to very particular events in the input data. A way to handle this sensitivity is to perform Monte Carlo studies with varying meteorological driving forces using a weather generator. For these studies, the Vector-Autoregressive Weather generator (VG), which was first presented at the EGU 2011, was developed further. VG generates daily air temperature, humidity, long- and shortwave radiance and wind. Wind and shortwave radiation is subsequently disaggregated to hourly values, because their short term variability has proven important for the application. Changes relative to the long-term values are modeled as disturbances that act during the autoregressive generation of the synthetic time series. The method preserves the dependence structure between the variables, as changes in the disturbed variable, say temperature, are propagated to the other variables. The approach is flexible because the disturbances can be chosen freely. Changes in mean can be represented as constant disturbance, changes in variability as episodes of certain length and amplitude. The disturbances can also be extracted from GCMs

  2. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  3. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  4. Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational po...

  5. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  6. Hydrodynamic and Ecological Assessment of Nearshore Restoration: A Modeling Study

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Heatwole, Danelle W.; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Thom, Ronald M.; Fuller, Roger

    2010-04-10

    Along the Pacific Northwest coast, much of the estuarine habitat has been diked over the last century for agricultural land use, residential and commercial development, and transportation corridors. As a result, many of the ecological processes and functions have been disrupted. To protect coastal habitats that are vital to aquatic species, many restoration projects are currently underway to restore the estuarine and coastal ecosystems through dike breaches, setbacks, and removals. Information on physical processes and hydrodynamic conditions are critical for the assessment of the success of restoration actions. Restoration of a 160- acre property at the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Puget Sound has been proposed. The goal is to restore native tidal habitats and estuary-scale ecological processes by removing the dike. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed for the Stillaguamish River estuary to simulate estuarine processes. The model was calibrated to observed tide, current, and salinity data for existing conditions and applied to simulate the hydrodynamic responses to two restoration alternatives. Responses were evaluated at the scale of the restoration footprint. Model data was combined with biophysical data to predict habitat responses at the site. Results showed that the proposed dike removal would result in desired tidal flushing and conditions that would support four habitat types on the restoration footprint. At the estuary scale, restoration would substantially increase the proportion of area flushed with freshwater (< 5 ppt) at flood tide. Potential implications of predicted changes in salinity and flow dynamics are discussed relative to the distribution of tidal marsh habitat.

  7. A Complementary Ecological Model of the Coordinated School Health Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lohrmann, David K.

    2010-01-01

    Background: A complementary ecological model of the coordinated school health program (CSHP) reflecting 20 years of evolved changes is proposed. Ecology refers to the complex interrelationship between intrapersonal factors, interpersonal processes and primary groups, institutional factors, community factors, and public policy. Methods: Public…

  8. Documentation of the Ecological Risk Assessment Computer Model ECORSK.5

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales

    1999-06-01

    The FORTRAN77 ecological risk computer model--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The model is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The model can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to risk evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical models used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving model parameters.

  9. Analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species.

    PubMed

    Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles K; Mehta, Pankaj

    2016-08-01

    A fundamental problem in community ecology is understanding how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration give rise to observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we analyze a recently introduced, analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly, and we use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, the amount of diversity, and demographic and environmental stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In the PA model, species are treated as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Building upon previous work, we show that, despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent studies of large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special ("critical") point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. These results suggest that the concepts of ecological "phases" and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology, and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. PMID:27627348

  10. [Simulation of urban ecological security pattern based on cellular automata: a case of Dongguan City, Guangdong Province of South China].

    PubMed

    Yang, Qing-Sheng; Qiao, Ji-Gang; Ai, Bin

    2013-09-01

    Taking the Dongguan City with rapid urbanization as a case, and selecting landscape ecological security level as evaluation criterion, the urbanization cellular number of 1 km x 1 km ecological security cells was obtained, and imbedded into the transition rules of cellular automata (CA) as the restraint term to control urban development, establish ecological security urban CA, and simulate ecological security urban development pattern. The results showed the integrated landscape ecological security index of the City decreased from 0.497 in 1998 to 0.395 in 2005, indicating that the ecological security at landscape scale was decreased. The CA-simulated integrated ecological security index of the City in 2005 was increased from the measured 0.395 to 0.479, showing that the simulated urban landscape ecological pressure from human became lesser, ecological security became better, and integrated landscape ecological security became higher. CA could be used as an effective tool in researching urban ecological security. PMID:24417120

  11. Boechera, a model system for ecological genomics

    PubMed Central

    Rushworth, Catherine A.; Song, Bao-Hua; Lee, Cheng-Ruei; Mitchell-Olds, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The selection and development of a study system for evolutionary and ecological functional genomics (EEFG) depends on a variety of factors. Here we present the genus Boechera as an exemplary system with which to address ecological and evolutionary questions. Our focus on Boechera is based on several characteristics: 1) native populations in undisturbed habitats where current environments reflect historical conditions over several thousand years; 2) functional genomics benefitting from its close relationship to Arabidopsis thaliana; 3) inbreeding tolerance enabling development of recombinant inbred lines, near-isogenic lines, and positional cloning; 4) interspecific crosses permitting mapping for genetic analysis of speciation; 5) apomixis (asexual reproduction by seeds) in a genetically tractable diploid; and 6) broad geographic distribution in North America, permitting ecological genetics for a large research community. These characteristics, along with the current sequencing of three Boechera species by the Joint Genome Institute, position Boechera as a rapidly advancing system for EEFG studies. PMID:22059452

  12. Boechera, a model system for ecological genomics.

    PubMed

    Rushworth, Catherine A; Song, Bao-Hua; Lee, Cheng-Ruei; Mitchell-Olds, Thomas

    2011-12-01

    The selection and development of a study system for evolutionary and ecological functional genomics (EEFG) depend on a variety of factors. Here, we present the genus Boechera as an exemplary system with which to address ecological and evolutionary questions. Our focus on Boechera is based on several characteristics as follows: (i) native populations in undisturbed habitats where current environments reflect historical conditions over several thousand years; (ii) functional genomics benefitting from its close relationship to Arabidopsis thaliana; (iii) inbreeding tolerance enabling development of recombinant inbred lines, near-isogenic lines and positional cloning; (iv) interspecific crosses permitting mapping for genetic analysis of speciation; (v) apomixis (asexual reproduction by seeds) in a genetically tractable diploid; and (vi) broad geographic distribution in North America, permitting ecological genetics for a large research community. These characteristics, along with the current sequencing of three Boechera species by the Joint Genome Institute, position Boechera as a rapidly advancing system for EEFG studies. PMID:22059452

  13. Ecological risk assessment of genetically modified crops based on cellular automata modeling.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jun; Wang, Zhi-Rui; Yang, De-Li; Yang, Qing; Yan, Jun; He, Ming-Feng

    2009-01-01

    The assessment of ecological risk in genetically modified (GM) biological systems is critically important for decision-making and public acceptance. Cellular automata (CA) provide a potential modeling and simulation framework for representing relationships and interspecies interactions both temporally and spatially. In this paper, a simple subsystem contains only four species: crop, target pest, non-target pest and enemy insect, and a three layer arrangement of LxL stochastic cellular automata with a periodic boundary were established. The simulation of this simplified system showed abundant and sufficient complexity in population assembly and densities, suggesting a prospective application in ecological risk assessment of GM crops. PMID:19477260

  14. INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

  15. An analytically tractable model for community ecology with many species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dickens, Benjamin; Fisher, Charles; Mehta, Pankaj; Pankaj Mehta Biophysics Theory Group Team

    A fundamental problem in community ecology is to understand how ecological processes such as selection, drift, and immigration yield observed patterns in species composition and diversity. Here, we present an analytically tractable, presence-absence (PA) model for community assembly and use it to ask how ecological traits such as the strength of competition, diversity in competition, and stochasticity affect species composition in a community. In our PA model, we treat species as stochastic binary variables that can either be present or absent in a community: species can immigrate into the community from a regional species pool and can go extinct due to competition and stochasticity. Despite its simplicity, the PA model reproduces the qualitative features of more complicated models of community assembly. In agreement with recent work on large, competitive Lotka-Volterra systems, the PA model exhibits distinct ecological behaviors organized around a special (``critical'') point corresponding to Hubbell's neutral theory of biodiversity. Our results suggest that the concepts of ``phases'' and phase diagrams can provide a powerful framework for thinking about community ecology and that the PA model captures the essential ecological dynamics of community assembly. Pm was supported by a Simons Investigator in the Mathematical Modeling of Living Systems and a Sloan Research Fellowship.

  16. Probabilistic ecological risk assessment of effluent toxicity of a wastewater reclamation plant based on process modeling.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Siyu; Huang, Yunqing; Sun, Fu; Li, Dan; He, Miao

    2016-09-01

    The growing use of reclaimed wastewater for environmental purposes such as stream flow augmentation requires comprehensive ecological risk assessment and management. This study applied a system analysis approach, regarding a wastewater reclamation plant (WRP) and its recipient water body as a whole system, and assessed the ecological risk of the recipient water body caused by the WRP effluent. Instead of specific contaminants, two toxicity indicators, i.e. genotoxicity and estrogenicity, were selected to directly measure the biological effects of all bio-available contaminants in the reclaimed wastewater, as well as characterize the ecological risk of the recipient water. A series of physically based models were developed to simulate the toxicity indicators in a WRP through a typical reclamation process, including ultrafiltration, ozonation, and chlorination. After being validated against the field monitoring data from a full-scale WRP in Beijing, the models were applied to simulate the probability distribution of effluent toxicity of the WRP through Latin Hypercube Sampling to account for the variability of influent toxicity and operation conditions. The simulated effluent toxicity was then used to derive the predicted environmental concentration (PEC) in the recipient stream, considering the variations of the toxicity and flow of the upstream inflow as well. The ratio of the PEC of each toxicity indicator to its corresponding predicted no-effect concentration was finally used for the probabilistic ecological risk assessment. Regional sensitivity analysis was also performed with the developed models to identify the critical control variables and strategies for ecological risk management. PMID:27219046

  17. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling.

    PubMed

    Escobar, Luis E; Craft, Meggan E

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  18. Advances and Limitations of Disease Biogeography Using Ecological Niche Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Escobar, Luis E.; Craft, Meggan E.

    2016-01-01

    Mapping disease transmission risk is crucial in public and animal health for evidence based decision-making. Ecology and epidemiology are highly related disciplines that may contribute to improvements in mapping disease, which can be used to answer health related questions. Ecological niche modeling is increasingly used for understanding the biogeography of diseases in plants, animals, and humans. However, epidemiological applications of niche modeling approaches for disease mapping can fail to generate robust study designs, producing incomplete or incorrect inferences. This manuscript is an overview of the history and conceptual bases behind ecological niche modeling, specifically as applied to epidemiology and public health; it does not pretend to be an exhaustive and detailed description of ecological niche modeling literature and methods. Instead, this review includes selected state-of-the-science approaches and tools, providing a short guide to designing studies incorporating information on the type and quality of the input data (i.e., occurrences and environmental variables), identification and justification of the extent of the study area, and encourages users to explore and test diverse algorithms for more informed conclusions. We provide a friendly introduction to the field of disease biogeography presenting an updated guide for researchers looking to use ecological niche modeling for disease mapping. We anticipate that ecological niche modeling will soon be a critical tool for epidemiologists aiming to map disease transmission risk, forecast disease distribution under climate change scenarios, and identify landscape factors triggering outbreaks. PMID:27547199

  19. [Removal of nitrogen in simulated rivers embanked by ecological concrete].

    PubMed

    Chen, Yang-hui; Lü, Xi-wu; Wu, Yi-feng

    2008-08-01

    The removal of nitrogen was studied in four types of pilot-scale rivers. The embankment for rivers No. 1, 2 and 3 consisted of respectively spheriform ecological-concrete prefab-bricks, rectangular ecological-concrete prefab-bricks and square ecological-concrete prefab-bricks with 4 hemispheroids. The embankment for river No. 4 was made of concrete C25. The results show that the removal rates of NH4+ -N, NO2- -N, NO3- -N and TN of river 1 are 83.6%, 75.2%, 37.1% and 47.5% under hydraulic retention time of 2 days, 83.4%, 53.0%, 30.6% and 40.4% for river 2, 88.1%, 72.4%, 33.0% and 40.9% for river 3. Under the same condition, NH4+ -N, TN of river 4 decreasesby 61.1%, 9.1%, while NO2- -N, NO3- -N increase by 7.4%, 3.4% due to the transformation of NH4+ -N. It indicates that ecological embankment rivers can effectively remove nitrogen. Besides, the addition of pore rate in embankment structure and more rate of plant coverage are good for the removal of nitrogen in ecological embankment rivers. PMID:18839568

  20. Gyrokinetic particle simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, W.W.

    1986-07-01

    A new type of particle simulation model based on the gyrophase-averaged Vlasov and Poisson equations is presented. The reduced system, in which particle gyrations are removed from the equations of motion while the finite Larmor radius effects are still preserved, is most suitable for studying low frequency microinstabilities in magnetized plasmas. It is feasible to simulate an elongated system (L/sub parallel/ >> L/sub perpendicular/) with a three-dimensional grid using the present model without resorting to the usual mode expansion technique, since there is essentially no restriction on the size of ..delta..x/sub parallel/ in a gyrokinetic plasma. The new approach also enables us to further separate the time and spatial scales of the simulation from those associated with global transport through the use of multiple spatial scale expansion. Thus, the model can be a very efficient tool for studying anomalous transport problems related to steady-state drift-wave turbulence in magnetic confinement devices. It can also be applied to other areas of plasma physics.

  1. Meeting in Korea: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  2. Meeting in Turkey: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  3. VARIOGRAPHY AND CONDITIONAL SEQUENTIAL SIMULATION: NEW TOOLS FOR ECOLOGICAL MONITORING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Superfund reauthorization Act requires an ecological impact statement as part of each site assessment. his is difficult because of the hierarchical multiple dimensionality of ecosystems and becaus of the limited time and resources for the site's monitoring and evaluation. he ...

  4. Comparison of Ecological Validity of Learning Disabilities Diagnostic Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dean, Vincent J.; Burns, Matthew K.; Grialou, Tina; Varro, Patrick J.

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to examine models designed for the determination of a learning disability and compare them to specific criteria to determine whether the given diagnostic process is ecological in nature. The traditional child-centered deficit model (CCD), Relative Achievement Discrepancy model (RAD), and Responsiveness to…

  5. SALSA: a simulation tool to assess ecological sustainability of agricultural production.

    PubMed

    Eriksson, Ingrid Strid; Elmquist, Helena; Nybrant, Thomas

    2005-06-01

    In order to assess the ecological sustainability of agricultural production systems, there is a need for effective tools. We describe an environmental systems analysis tool called SALSA (Systems Ana/ysis for Sustainable Agriculture). It consists of substance/material flow models in which the simulation results are interpreted with life-cycle assessment methodology. The application of SALSA is demonstrated in a case study in which three different ways of producing pigs are compared with respect to energy input and the environmental impacts of global warming, eutrophication, and acidification. The scenario that combined a low-protein diet without soy meal with an improved manure-management technique with low nitrogen losses was the best for all impact categories studied. The strength of the SALSA models was their capacity to capture consequences of management options that had an influence on several processes on a farm, which enabled the type of complex studies we describe. PMID:16092274

  6. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, G.W., II

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs.

  7. Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of nine Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing teachers and students with informational reading on various ecological topics. The bulletins have these titles: Schoolyard Laboratories, Owls and Predators, The Forest Community, Life in Freshwater Marshes, Camouflage in the Animal World, Life in the Desert, The…

  8. ECOLOGICAL MODEL TESTING: VERIFICATION, VALIDATION OR NEITHER?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consider the need to make a management decision about a declining animal population. Two models are available to help. Before a decision is made based on model results, the astute manager or policy maker may ask, "Do the models work?" Or, "Have the models been verified or validat...

  9. Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

  10. Ecological niche modelling of bank voles in Western Europe.

    PubMed

    Amirpour Haredasht, Sara; Barrios, Miguel; Farifteh, Jamshid; Maes, Piet; Clement, Jan; Verstraeten, Willem W; Tersago, Katrien; Van Ranst, Marc; Coppin, Pol; Berckmans, Daniel; Aerts, Jean-Marie

    2013-02-01

    The bank vole (Myodes glareolus) is the natural host of Puumala virus (PUUV) in vast areas of Europe. PUUV is one of the hantaviruses which are transmitted to humans by infected rodents. PUUV causes a general mild form of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) called nephropathia epidemica (NE). Vector-borne and zoonotic diseases generally display clear spatial patterns due to different space-dependent factors. Land cover influences disease transmission by controlling both the spatial distribution of vectors or hosts, as well as by facilitating the human contact with them. In this study the use of ecological niche modelling (ENM) for predicting the geographical distribution of bank vole population on the basis of spatial climate information is tested. The Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) is used to model the ecological niche of bank voles in Western Europe. The meteorological data, land cover types and geo-referenced points representing the locations of the bank voles (latitude/longitude) in the study area are used as the primary model input value. The predictive accuracy of the bank vole ecologic niche model was significant (training accuracy of 86%). The output of the GARP models based on the 50% subsets of points used for testing the model showed an accuracy of 75%. Compared with random models, the probability of such high predictivity was low (χ(2) tests, p < 10(-6)). As such, the GARP models were predictive and the used ecologic niche model indeed indicates the ecologic requirements of bank voles. This approach successfully identified the areas of infection risk across the study area. The result suggests that the niche modelling approach can be implemented in a next step towards the development of new tools for monitoring the bank vole's population. PMID:23358234

  11. Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 tomore » 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy’s (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.« less

  12. SSPX simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, T K

    1999-09-20

    An analytical approximation to an R-L-C circuit representing SSPX is shown to reproduce the observed capacitor bank efficiency and gun optimization data. As in the SPICE code, the spheromak gun is represented by a fixed resistance chosen to balance energy transfer to the gun. A revised estimate of the magnetic decay time in SSPX Shot 1822 then brings our estimate of the gun efficiency itself in line with the observed spheromak magnetic field for this shot. Prompted by these successes, we present a turbulence-based theoretical model for the spheromak resistance that can be implemented in the SPICE code, of the form: R{sub s} = {kappa}I (1-I{sub 0}/I){sup 2} where I is the gun current, I{sub 0} = ({Lambda}{sub 0}/{mu}{sub 0}){Phi} with bias flux and Taylor eigenvalue {lambda}{sub 0}, and {kappa} is a coefficient based on the magnetic turbulence model employed in Dan Hua's spheromak simulation code. The value of {kappa} giving a good energy balance (around 0.1 m{Omega}/KA) implies substantial turbulence levels. Implementing our model in SPICE would provide a calibration for theoretical calculations of the turbulence. Our analytic approximation to the SPICE code provides guidance to optimize future performance in SSPX, the greatest benefit appearing to come from reducing or eliminating the protective resistor to increase bank efficiency. Eliminating the resistor altogether doubles the bank efficiency and the spheromak magnetic energy.

  13. Model Organisms Retain an “Ecological Memory” of Complex Ecologically Relevant Environmental Variation

    PubMed Central

    Beer, Karlyn D.; Wurtmann, Elisabeth J.; Pinel, Nicolás

    2014-01-01

    Although tractable model organisms are essential to characterize the molecular mechanisms of evolution and adaptation, the ecological relevance of their behavior is not always clear because certain traits are easily lost during long-term laboratory culturing. Here, we demonstrate that despite their long tenure in the laboratory, model organisms retain “ecological memory” of complex environmental changes. We have discovered that Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1, a halophilic archaeon that dominates microbial communities in a dynamically changing hypersaline environment, simultaneously optimizes fitness to total salinity, NaCl concentration, and the [K]/[Mg] ratio. Despite being maintained under controlled conditions over the last 50 years, peaks in the three-dimensional fitness landscape occur in salinity and ionic compositions that are not replicated in laboratory culturing but are routinely observed in the natural hypersaline environment of this organism. Intriguingly, adaptation to variations in ion composition was associated with differential regulation of anaerobic metabolism genes, suggesting an intertwined relationship between responses to oxygen and salinity. Our results suggest that the ecological memory of complex environmental variations is imprinted in the networks for coordinating multiple cellular processes. These coordination networks are also essential for dealing with changes in other physicochemically linked factors present during routine laboratory culturing and, hence, retained in model organisms. PMID:24413600

  14. Individual-based modeling of ecological and evolutionary processes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Mooij, Wolf M.

    2005-01-01

    Individual-based models (IBMs) allow the explicit inclusion of individual variation in greater detail than do classical differential-equation and difference-equation models. Inclusion of such variation is important for continued progress in ecological and evolutionary theory. We provide a conceptual basis for IBMs by describing five major types of individual variation in IBMs: spatial, ontogenetic, phenotypic, cognitive, and genetic. IBMs are now used in almost all subfields of ecology and evolutionary biology. We map those subfields and look more closely at selected key papers on fish recruitment, forest dynamics, sympatric speciation, metapopulation dynamics, maintenance of diversity, and species conservation. Theorists are currently divided on whether IBMs represent only a practical tool for extending classical theory to more complex situations, or whether individual-based theory represents a radically new research program. We feel that the tension between these two poles of thinking can be a source of creativity in ecology and evolutionary theory.

  15. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems. PMID:24955649

  16. Acute ecological toxicity and environmental persistence of simulants

    SciTech Connect

    Cataldo, D.A.; Ligotke, M.W.; McVeety, B.D.; Fellows, R.J.; Bolton, H. Jr.; Li, S.W.; Van Voris, P.; Wentsel, R.S.

    1988-06-01

    The objectives of these studies are to establish the comparative environmental behavior and chemical fate of chemical simulants. Laboratory studies were undertaken to establish: (1) deposition efficiency (deposition velocities, Vd) for receptor surfaces including plant foliage and soils; (2) dose/response relationships for important environmental components including plants and soil microflora; and (3) the environmental persistence of the simulants. Chemical agent simulants are employed for a range of testing and training activities where use of chemical agents is less than suitable from a safety and environmental standpoint. A variety of chemical simulant materials are used to simulate either nerve agents or blister agents. The following research describes the environmental effects and persistence of four simulants. These are the nerve agent stimulants diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP), diisopropyl fluorophosphate (DFP), and bis (2-ethylhexyl) phosphonate (BIS), and the mustard stimulant 2-chloroethyl ethyl sulfide (CEES). The vapor pressures for DIMP, DFP, and CEES are relatively high, reported to be 0.17, 0.58 and 3.4 mm Hg, respectively; while that of BIS is substantially less at 5.8 /times/ 10/sup /minus/5/ mm Hg at 25/degree/C. The chemical characteristics of DFP and CEES are very similar to G/VX-agents and mustard, respectively, and are employed for materials evaluation under controlled conditions. However, their toxicity precludes their use in the environment. DIMP and BIS are currently used for testing in the open air. 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  17. ASSESSMENT OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN EMPIRICAL MODELS IN ECOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Statistically assessing ecological models is inherently difficult because data are autocorrelated and this autocorrelation varies in an unknown fashion. At a simple level, the linking of a single species to a habitat type is a straightforward analysis. With some investigation int...

  18. A Model of Practice in Special Education: Dynamic Ecological Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannant, Barbara; Lim, Eng Leong; McAllum, Ruth

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic Ecological Analysis (DEA) is a model of practice which increases a teams' efficacy by enabling the development of more effective interventions through collaboration and collective reflection. This process has proved to be useful in: a) clarifying thinking and problem-solving, b) transferring knowledge and thinking to significant parties,…

  19. Advances in Violence and Trauma: Toward Comprehensive Ecological Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, Honore M.; Humphrey, Natalie N.; Weaver, Terri L.

    2005-01-01

    The most important things learned about violence and trauma in the past 20 years are that interpersonal violence is prevalent, with different forms co-occurring, and that victims' reactions are complex. Researchers are called to consider models that include the ecological context within which victims experience violence and trauma to gain a better…

  20. The Quality of Home Environment in Brazil: An Ecological Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Oliveira, Ebenezer A.; Barros, Fernando C.; Anselmi, Luciana D. da Silva; Piccinini, Cesar A.

    2006-01-01

    Based on Bronfenbrenner's (1999) ecological perspective, a longitudinal, prospective model of individual differences in the quality of home environment (Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment--HOME) was tested in a sample of 179 Brazilian children and their families. Perinatal measures of family socioeconomic status (SES) and child…

  1. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  2. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  3. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Dublin

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  4. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Fremantle

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  5. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Sydney

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  6. A Novel Integrated Ecological Model for the study of Sustainability

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years, there has been a growing interest among various sections of the society in the study of sustainability. Recently, a generalized mathematical model depicting a combined economic-ecological-social system has been proposed to help in the formal study of sustainabili...

  7. INTEGRATION OF AN ECONOMIC WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    We summarize our work on integration of an economy under imperfect competition with a simple Lotka-Volterra type ecological model. Firms and households operate within a single period planning horizon, thus there is no savings or investment. Wages are set by a dominant employer. P...

  8. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Perth

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  9. Historical development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  10. Contrail Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paoli, Roberto; Shariff, Karim

    2016-01-01

    There is large uncertainty in the radiative forcing induced by aircraft contrails, particularly after they transform to cirrus. It has recently become possible to simulate contrail evolution for long periods after their formation. We review the main physical processes and simulation efforts in the four phases of contrail evolution, namely the jet, vortex, vortex dissipation, and diffusion phases. Recommendations for further work are given.

  11. [New experimental models in microbial ecology].

    PubMed

    Liz'ko, N N

    1989-06-01

    Peculiar features of dysbiosis development in persons under extreme conditions were studied. It was shown that a number of extreme factors participated in formation of dysbiotic disorders in intestinal microflora. Of paramount importance was the neuro-emotional stress. Lability of bifido- and lactoflora was considered as the starting mechanism in dysbacteriosis under the extreme conditions. In the experimental models with rats SPF and Primates during flights of biosatellites of the Kosmos series the role of indigenous++ microflora in maintaining the microecological homeostasis, as well as the need for development of artificial and controlled intestinal microflora promising in prophylaxis of dysbacteriosis under extreme conditions was shown. The theoretical and experimentally grounded necessity of maintaining constant intestine microbiocenosis was confirmed by the practice of using the system of measures for recovery, stabilization and optimization of microflora in persons under extreme conditions. PMID:2802876

  12. INTERPRETING ECOLOGICAL DIVERSITY INDICES APPLIED TO T-RFLP DATA: INSIGHTS FROM SIMULATED MICROBIAL COMMUNITIES

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Ecological diversity indices are frequently applied to molecular profiling methods, such as terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP), in order to detect differences in diversity of the microbial communities sampled. We performed simulations to determine whether diversity indices c...

  13. SIMULATION OF ECOLOGICALLY CONSCIOUS CHEMICAL PROCESSES: FUGITIVE EMISSIONS VERSUS OPERATING CONDITIONS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1531A Mata, T.M., Smith*, R.L., Young*, D., and Costa, C.A.V. "Simulation of Ecologically Conscious Chemical Processes: Fugitive Emissions versus Operating Conditions." Paper published in: CHEMPOR' 2001, 8th International Chemical Engineering Conference, Aveiro, Portu...

  14. Assessing the Effectiveness of a Computer Simulation for Teaching Ecological Experimental Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stafford, Richard; Goodenough, Anne E.; Davies, Mark S.

    2010-01-01

    Designing manipulative ecological experiments is a complex and time-consuming process that is problematic to teach in traditional undergraduate classes. This study investigates the effectiveness of using a computer simulation--the Virtual Rocky Shore (VRS)--to facilitate rapid, student-centred learning of experimental design. We gave a series of…

  15. Modeling the ecological consequences of land-use policies in an urbanizing region.

    PubMed

    Conway, Tenley M; Lathrop, Richard G

    2005-03-01

    Insight into future land use and effective ways to control land-use change is crucial to addressing environmental change. A variety of growth-control policies have been adopted by municipal and regional governments within the United States to try to minimize the ecological impact of continued urbanization, but it is often unclear if those policies can meet the stated ecological goals. Land-use-change models provide a way to generate predictions of future change, while exploring the impact of different land-use policies before irreversible transformations occur. In this article, an approach to modeling land-use policies that focuses on their ecological consequences is described. The policy simulation approach was used to predict future land use in the Barnegat Bay and Mullica River watersheds, in southeastern New Jersey, USA. Four commonly used policies were considered: down-zoning, cluster development, wetlands/water buffers, and open space protection. The results of the analysis suggest that none of the policies modeled were able to alter future land-use patterns, raising questions about the effectiveness of commonly adopted land-use policies. However, the policy modeling approach used in this study proved to be a useful way to determine if adoption of a given policy could improve the likelihood of meeting ecological goals. PMID:15772716

  16. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

    2013-11-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

  17. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

    2013-05-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs, and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore co-existence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high latitude areas, and indicate seasonal co-existence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, was so far not captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

  18. Relationship of stream ecological conditions to simulated hydraulic metrics across a gradient of basin urbanization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steuer, J.J.; Bales, J.D.; Giddings, E.M.P.

    2009-01-01

    The relationships among urbanization, stream hydraulics, and aquatic biology were investigated across a gradient of urbanization in 30 small basins in eastern Wisconsin, USA. Simulation of hydraulic metrics with 1-dimensional unsteady flow models was an effective means for mechanistically coupling the effects of urbanization with stream ecological conditions (i.e., algae, invertebrates, and fish). Urbanization, characterized by household, road, and urban land density, was positively correlated with the lowest shear stress for 2 adjacent transects in a reach for the low-flow summer (p < 0.001) and autumn (p < 0.01) periods. Urbanization also was positively correlated with Reynolds number and % exposed stream bed during months with moderate to low flows. Our study demonstrated the value of temporally and spatially explicit hydraulic models for providing mechanistic insight into the relationships between hydraulic variables and biological responses. For example, the positive correlation between filter-feeding invertebrate richness and minimum 2-transect shear stress observed in our study is consistent with a higher concentration of water-column particulates available for filtration. The strength of correlations between hydraulic and biological metrics is related to the time period (annual, seasonal, or monthly) considered. The hydraulic modeling approach, whether based on hourly or daily flow data, allowed documentation of the effects of a spatially variable response within a reach, and the results suggest that stream response to urbanization varies with hydraulic habitat type. ?? North American Benthological Society.

  19. Correlated percolation models of structured habitat in ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huth, Géraldine; Lesne, Annick; Munoz, François; Pitard, Estelle

    2014-12-01

    Percolation offers acknowledged models of random media when the relevant medium characteristics can be described as a binary feature. However, when considering habitat modeling in ecology, a natural constraint comes from nearest-neighbor correlations between the suitable/unsuitable states of the spatial units forming the habitat. Such constraints are also relevant in the physics of aggregation where underlying processes may lead to a form of correlated percolation. However, in ecology, the processes leading to habitat correlations are in general not known or very complex. As proposed by Hiebeler (2000), these correlations can be captured in a lattice model by an observable aggregation parameter q, supplementing the density p of suitable sites. We investigate this model as an instance of correlated percolation. We analyze the phase diagram of the percolation transition and compute the cluster size distribution, the pair-connectedness function C(r) and the correlation function g(r). We find that while g(r) displays a power-law decrease associated with long-range correlations in a wide domain of parameter values, critical properties are compatible with the universality class of uncorrelated percolation. We contrast the correlation structures obtained respectively for the correlated percolation model and for the Ising model, and show that the diversity of habitat configurations generated by the Hiebeler model is richer than the archetypal Ising model. We also find that emergent structural properties are peculiar to the implemented algorithm, leading to questioning the notion of a well-defined model of aggregated habitat. We conclude that the choice of model and algorithm has strong consequences on what insights ecological studies can get using such models of species habitat.

  20. Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology.

    PubMed

    Brennan, Angela; Cross, Paul C; Higgs, Megan; Beckmann, Jon P; Klaver, Robert W; Scurlock, Brandon M; Creel, Scott

    2013-04-01

    It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (< 1 km2) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9-2200 km2) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model's resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model predictions

  1. Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

  2. Ecological dynamic model of grassland and its practical verification.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Xiaodong; Wang, Aihui; Zhao, Gang; Shen, Samuel S P; Zeng, Xubin; Zeng, Qingcun

    2005-02-01

    Based on the physico-biophysical considerations, mathematical analysis and some approximate formulations generally adopted in meteorology and ecology, an ecological dynamic model of grassland is developed. The model consists of three interactive variables, i.e. the biomass of living grass, the biomass of wilted grass, and the soil wetness. The major biophysical processes are represented in parameterization formulas, and the model parameters can be determined inversely by using the observational climatological and ecological data. Some major parameters are adjusted by this method to fit the data (although incomplete) in the Inner Mongolia grassland, and other secondary parameters are estimated through sensitivity studies. The model results are well agreed with reality, e.g., (i) the maintenance of grassland requires a minimum amount of annual precipitation (approximately 300 mm); (ii) there is a significant relationship between the annual precipitation and the biomass of living grass; and (iii) the overgrazing will eventually result in desertification. A specific emphasis is put on the shading effect of the wilted grass accumulated on the soil surface. It effectively reduces the soil surface temperature and the evaporation, hence benefits the maintenance of grassland and the reduction of water loss in the soil. PMID:15844356

  3. Numerical wind speed simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Ballinger, M.Y.

    1981-09-01

    A relatively simple stochastic model for simulating wind speed time series that can be used as an alternative to time series from representative locations is described in this report. The model incorporates systematic seasonal variation of the mean wind, its standard deviation, and the correlation speeds. It also incorporates systematic diurnal variation of the mean speed and standard deviation. To demonstrate the model capabilities, simulations were made using model parameters derived from data collected at the Hanford Meteorology Station, and results of analysis of simulated and actual data were compared.

  4. Applying ecological modeling to parenting for Australian refugee families.

    PubMed

    Grant, Julian; Guerin, Pauline B

    2014-10-01

    Children in families with parents from refugee backgrounds are often viewed as a vulnerable group with increased risks of developing physical or psychological problems. However, there is very little research regarding the strategies that parents might use to parent their children in a new country while they also manage the interrelated challenges of poverty, social isolation, maternal stress, and mental ill health that often go along with resettlement. We explore the application of ecological modeling, specifically at individual, institutional, and policy levels, within an Australian context to critique the factors that shape the development of parenting capacity within refugee families settling in a new Western country. Ecological modeling enables examination of how public policy at local state and national levels influences the individual and family directly and through the organizations that are given the task of implementing many of the policy recommendations. Recommendations for health practice and research are made. PMID:24583875

  5. Simulation Models in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrisseau, James J.

    1973-01-01

    This paper, adapted from a Society for College and University Planning conference, discusses cost simulation models in higher education. Emphasis is placed on the art of management, mini-models vs. maxi-models, the useful model, the reporting problem, anatomy of failure, information vs. action, and words of caution. (MJM)

  6. Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cross, Faul C.; Klaver, Robert W.; Brennan, Angela; Creel, Scott; Beckmann, Jon P.; Higgs, Megan D.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (2) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9–2200 km2) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model’s resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model

  7. So Many Variables: Joint Modeling in Community Ecology.

    PubMed

    Warton, David I; Blanchet, F Guillaume; O'Hara, Robert B; Ovaskainen, Otso; Taskinen, Sara; Walker, Steven C; Hui, Francis K C

    2015-12-01

    Technological advances have enabled a new class of multivariate models for ecology, with the potential now to specify a statistical model for abundances jointly across many taxa, to simultaneously explore interactions across taxa and the response of abundance to environmental variables. Joint models can be used for several purposes of interest to ecologists, including estimating patterns of residual correlation across taxa, ordination, multivariate inference about environmental effects and environment-by-trait interactions, accounting for missing predictors, and improving predictions in situations where one can leverage knowledge of some species to predict others. We demonstrate this by example and discuss recent computation tools and future directions. PMID:26519235

  8. Modeling hydrologic and ecologic responses using a new eco-hydrological model for identification of droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio; Jaranilla-Sanchez, Patricia Ann

    2014-07-01

    Drought severely damages water and agricultural resources, and both hydrological and ecological responses are important for its understanding. First, precipitation deficit induces soil moisture deficiency and high plant water stress causing agricultural droughts. Second, hydrological drought characterized by deficit of river discharge and groundwater follows agricultural drought. However, contributions of vegetation dynamics to these processes at basin scale have not been quantified. To address this issue, we develop an eco-hydrological model that can calculate river discharge, groundwater, energy flux, and vegetation dynamics as diagnostic variables at basin scale within a distributed hydrological modeling framework. The model is applied to drought analysis in the Medjerda River basin. From model inputs and outputs, we calculate drought indices for different drought types. The model shows reliable accuracy in reproducing observed river discharge in long-term (19 year) simulation. Moreover, the drought index calculated from the model-estimated annual peak of leaf area index correlates well (correlation coefficient r = 0.89) with the drought index from nationwide annual crop production, which demonstrates that the modeled leaf area index is capable of representing agricultural droughts related to historical food shortages. We show that vegetation dynamics have a more rapid response to meteorological droughts than river discharge and groundwater dynamics in the Medjerda basin because vegetation dynamics are sensitive to soil moisture in surface layers, whereas soil moisture in deeper layers strongly contributes to streamflow and groundwater level. Our modeling framework can contribute to analyze drought progress, although analyses for other climate conditions are needed.

  9. Structural Equation Modeling: Applications in ecological and evolutionary biology research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pugesek, Bruce H.; von Eye, Alexander; Tomer, Adrian

    2003-01-01

    This book presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems. Supplementary information can be found at the authors website, http://www.jamesbgrace.com/. • Details why multivariate analyses should be used to study ecological systems • Exposes unappreciated weakness in many current popular analyses • Emphasizes the future methodological developments needed to advance our understanding of ecological systems.

  10. Advancing Ecological Models to Compare Scale in Multi-Level Educational Change

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woo, David James

    2016-01-01

    Education systems as units of analysis have been metaphorically likened to ecologies to model change. However, ecological models to date have been ineffective in modelling educational change that is multi-scale and occurs across multiple levels of an education system. Thus, this paper advances two innovative, ecological frameworks that improve on…

  11. Unifying wildfire models from ecology and statistical physics.

    PubMed

    Zinck, Richard D; Grimm, Volker

    2009-11-01

    Understanding the dynamics of wildfire regimes is crucial for both regional forest management and predicting global interactions between fire regimes and climate. Accordingly, spatially explicit modeling of forest fire ecosystems is a very active field of research, including both generic and highly specific models. There is, however, a second field in which wildfire has served as a metaphor for more than 20 years: statistical physics. So far, there has been only limited interaction between these two fields of wildfire modeling. Here we show that two typical generic wildfire models from ecology are structurally equivalent to the most commonly used model from statistical physics. All three models can be unified to a single model in which they appear as special cases of regrowth-dependent flammability. This local "ecological memory" of former fire events is key to self-organization in wildfire ecosystems. The unified model is able to reproduce three different patterns observed in real boreal forests: fire size distributions, fire shapes, and a hump-shaped relationship between disturbance intensity (average annual area burned) and diversity of succession stages. The unification enables us to bring together insights from both disciplines in a novel way and to identify limitations that provide starting points for further research. PMID:19799499

  12. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-06-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  13. Automatic programming of simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, Shou X.; Dwan, Wen S.

    1988-01-01

    The objective of automatic programming is to improve the overall environment for describing the program. This improved environment is realized by a reduction in the amount of detail that the programmer needs to know and is exposed to. Furthermore, this improved environment is achieved by a specification language that is more natural to the user's problem domain and to the user's way of thinking and looking at the problem. The goal of this research is to apply the concepts of automatic programming (AP) to modeling discrete event simulation system. Specific emphasis is on the design and development of simulation tools to assist the modeler define or construct a model of the system and to then automatically write the corresponding simulation code in the target simulation language, GPSS/PC. A related goal is to evaluate the feasibility of various languages for constructing automatic programming simulation tools.

  14. Research on agricultural ecology and environment analysis and modeling based on RS and GIS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wensheng; Chen, Hongfu; Wang, Mingsheng

    2009-07-01

    Analysis of agricultural ecology and environment is based on the data of agricultural resources, which are obtained by RS monitoring. The over-exploitation of farmlands will cause structural changes of the soil composition, and damage the planting environment and the agro-ecosystem. Through the research on the dynamic monitoring methods of multitemporal RS images and GIS technology, the crop growth status, crop acreage and other relevant information in agricultural production are extracted based on the monitor and analysis of the conditions of the fields and crop growth. The agro-ecological GIS platform is developed with the establishment of the agricultural resources management database, which manages spatial data, RS data and attribute data of agricultural resources. Using the RS, GIS analysis results, the reasons of agro-ecological destruction are analyzed and the evaluation methods are established. This paper puts forward the concept of utilization capacity of farmland, which describes farmland space for development and utilization that is influenced by the conditions of the land, water resources, climate, pesticides and chemical fertilizers and many other agricultural production factors. Assessment model of agricultural land use capacity is constructed with the help of Fuzzy. Assessing the utilization capacity of farmland can be helpful to agricultural production and ecological protection of farmland. This paper describes the application of the capacity evaluation model with simulated data in two aspects, namely, in evaluating the status of farmland development and utilization and in optimal planting.

  15. Simulation modeling of estuarine ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A simulation model has been developed of Galveston Bay, Texas ecosystem. Secondary productivity measured by harvestable species (such as shrimp and fish) is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh-water and pollutants. This simulation model used information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements obtained by conventional sampling techniques. Predicted results from the model compared favorably with those from comparable investigations. In addition, this paper will discuss remotely sensed and conventional measurements in the framework of prospective models that may be used to study estuarine processes and ecosystem productivity.

  16. Introducing MERGANSER: A Flexible Framework for Ecological Niche Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klawonn, M.; Dow, E. M.

    2015-12-01

    Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is a collection of techniques to find a "fundamental niche", the range of environmental conditions suitable for a species' survival in the absence of inter-species interactions, given a set of environmental parameters. Traditional approaches to ENM face a number of obstacles including limited data accessibility, data management problems, computational costs, interface usability, and model validation. The MERGANSER system, which stands for Modeling Ecological Residency Given A Normalized Set of Environmental Records, addresses these issues through powerful data persistence and flexible data access, coupled with a clear presentation of results and fine-tuned control over model parameters. MERGANSER leverages data measuring 72 weather related phenomena, land cover, soil type, population, species occurrence, general species information, and elevation, totaling over 1.5 TB of data. To the best of the authors' knowledge, MERGANSER uses higher-resolution spatial data sets than previously published models. Since MERGANSER stores data in an instance of Apache SOLR, layers generated in support of niche models are accessible to users via simplified Apache Lucene queries. This is made even simpler via an HTTP front end that generates Lucene queries automatically. Specifically, a user need only enter the name of a place and a species to run a model. Using this approach to synthesizing model layers, the MERGANSER system has successfully reproduced previously published niche model results with a simplified user experience. Input layers for the model are generated dynamically using OpenStreetMap and SOLR's spatial search functionality. Models are then run using either user-specified or automatically determined parameters after normalizing them into a common grid. Finally, results are visualized in the web interface, which allows for quick validation. Model results and all surrounding metadata are also accessible to the user for further study.

  17. TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

    SciTech Connect

    DeHart, Mark David

    2015-09-01

    This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

  18. Model Predictive Control for Automobile Ecological Driving Using Traffic Signal Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamaguchi, Daisuke; Kamal, M. A. S.; Mukai, Masakazu; Kawabe, Taketoshi

    This paper presents development of a control system for ecological driving of an automobile. Prediction using traffic signal information is considered to improve the fuel economy. It is assumed that the automobile receives traffic signal information from Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS). Model predictive control is used to calculate optimal vehicle control inputs using traffic signal information. The performance of the proposed method was analyzed through computer simulation results. It was observed that fuel economy was improved compared with driving of a typical human driving model.

  19. Modeling and Simulation at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation is composed of two topics. The first reviews the use of modeling and simulation (M&S) particularly as it relates to the Constellation program and discrete event simulation (DES). DES is defined as a process and system analysis, through time-based and resource constrained probabilistic simulation models, that provide insight into operation system performance. The DES shows that the cycles for a launch from manufacturing and assembly to launch and recovery is about 45 days and that approximately 4 launches per year are practicable. The second topic reviews a NASA Standard for Modeling and Simulation. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board made some recommendations related to models and simulations. Some of the ideas inherent in the new standard are the documentation of M&S activities, an assessment of the credibility, and reporting to decision makers, which should include the analysis of the results, a statement as to the uncertainty in the results,and the credibility of the results. There is also discussion about verification and validation (V&V) of models. There is also discussion about the different types of models and simulation.

  20. Advanced Space Shuttle simulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tatom, F. B.; Smith, S. R.

    1982-01-01

    A non-recursive model (based on von Karman spectra) for atmospheric turbulence along the flight path of the shuttle orbiter was developed. It provides for simulation of instantaneous vertical and horizontal gusts at the vehicle center-of-gravity, and also for simulation of instantaneous gusts gradients. Based on this model the time series for both gusts and gust gradients were generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes, entitled Shuttle Simulation Turbulence Tapes (SSTT). The time series are designed to represent atmospheric turbulence from ground level to an altitude of 120,000 meters. A description of the turbulence generation procedure is provided. The results of validating the simulated turbulence are described. Conclusions and recommendations are presented. One-dimensional von Karman spectra are tabulated, while a discussion of the minimum frequency simulated is provided. The results of spectral and statistical analyses of the SSTT are presented.

  1. Infrared simulation model SENSAT-2.

    PubMed

    Richter, R

    1987-06-15

    The computer model SENSAT-2 has been developed for remote sensing uses of passive sensors in the 1-28-, microm infrared spectral region. The model calculates the IR signature of up to three homogeneous objects in the instantaneous field of view of the sensor. For the atmospheric part, model LOWTRAN-6 is used within SENSAT-2. Model SENSAT-2 can be used for mission analysis of sensors on different platforms like groundbased, aircraft, or satellite. It is a useful design tool for simulating and assessing the radiometric relations that are indispensable in designing sensors. Further uses include the comparison of measurements with simulation results and the radiometric correction of measurements. PMID:20489878

  2. Dense and sparse aggregations in complex motion: Video coupled with simulation modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In censuses of aggregations composed of highly mobile animals, the link between image processing technology and simulation modeling remains relatively unexplored despite demonstrated ecological needs for abundance and density assessments. We introduce a framework that connects video censusing with ...

  3. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR MULTI-SCALAR ASSESSMENTS OF ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A conceptual model was developed that relates an estuarine system's anthropogenic inputs to it's ecological integrity. Ecological integrity is operationally defined as an emergent property of an ecosystem that exists when the structural components are complete and the functional ...

  4. From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models.

    PubMed

    Rounsevell, M D A; Robinson, D T; Murray-Rust, D

    2012-01-19

    The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

  5. From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

    PubMed Central

    Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.

    2012-01-01

    The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

  6. Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

    2015-05-01

    Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables

  7. Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

    PubMed Central

    Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

    2015-01-01

    Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables

  8. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Isaak, Dan J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordon, Chris E.; McNyset, Kristina; Monestiez, Pascal; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Sengupta, Aritra; Som, Nicholas; Steel, E. Ashley; Theobald, David M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2013-01-01

    the context of stream ecology. Within this context, we summarise the key innovations of a new family of spatial statistical models that describe spatial relationships in DENs. Finally, we discuss how different network analyses may be combined to address more complex and novel research questions. While our main focus is streams, the taxonomy of network analyses is also relevant anywhere spatial patterns in both network and 2-D space can be used to explore the influence of multi-scale processes on biota and their habitat (e.g. plant morphology and pest infestation, or preferential migration along stream or road corridors).

  9. Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU).

    PubMed

    Fan, Ming; Thongsri, Tepwitoon; Axe, Lisa; Tyson, Trevor A

    2005-06-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites. PMID:15910910

  10. Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

    2011-01-01

    A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  11. Fiber 3.0: An ecological growth model for northeastern forest types. Forest Service general technical report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, D.S.; Herman, D.A.; Leak, W.B.

    1995-05-22

    Fiber, a stand projection growth model, simulates the growth and structural development of stands in the Northeast. The internal structure of the model is specified and constructed by the ecological type classifications of sugar maple--ash, beech--red maple, oad--white pine, spruce--fir, hemlock--spruce, and cedar--black spruce. Guidelines are provided on operational procedures for the major commercial species growing on these different ecologic land classifications for a range of even-aged and uneven-aged silvicultural treatments and harvesting schedules.

  12. Land surface model (LSM version 1.0) for ecological, hydrological, and atmospheric studies: Technical description and user`s guide. Technical note

    SciTech Connect

    Bonan, G.B.

    1996-01-01

    This technical note describes version 1 of the LSM land surface model. In this model, land surface processes are described in terms of biophysical fluxes (latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, reflected solar radiation, emitted longwave radiation) and biochemical fluxes (CO2) that depend on the ecological and hydrologic state of the land. Consequently, ecological and hydrological sub-models are needed to simulate temporal changes in terrestrial biomass and water.

  13. Aquilegia: a new model for plant development, ecology, and evolution.

    PubMed

    Kramer, Elena M

    2009-01-01

    The lower eudicot genus Aquilegia holds enormous potential for investigating aspects of development, ecology, and evolution that are otherwise unrepresented among existing model systems. Its evolutionary history is of particular interest because it represents a phylogenetic midpoint between models such as Arabidopsis and Oryza but, at the same time, has experienced a recent adaptive radiation within the genus. To take advantage of these features, a collaborative group has developed a number of genetic and genomic resources for Aquilegia that have facilitated the study of its distinct morphology. This work has demonstrated that although the petaloid sepals of Aquilegia do not depend on B-class genes for their identity, these loci do control development of the petals, stamens, and novel staminodium. Overall, Aquilegia stands as a key example of the potential utility and speed of developing new genetic model systems. PMID:19575583

  14. Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

  15. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  16. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  17. A model of ecological and evolutionary consequences of color polymorphism.

    PubMed

    Forsman, Anders; Ahnesjö, Jonas; Caesar, Sofia; Karlsson, Magnus

    2008-01-01

    We summarize direct and indirect effects on fitness components of animal color pattern and present a synthesis of theories concerning the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of chromatic multiple niche polymorphisms. Previous endeavors have aimed primarily at identifying conditions that promote the evolution and maintenance of polymorphisms. We consider in a conceptual model also the reciprocal influence of color polymorphism on population processes and propose that polymorphism entails selective advantages that may promote the ecological success of polymorphic species. The model begins with an evolutionary branching event from mono- to polymorphic condition that, under the influence of correlational selection, is predicted to promote the evolution of physical integration of coloration and other traits (cf. multi-trait coevolution and complex phenotypes). We propose that the coexistence within a population of alternative ecomorphs with coadapted gene complexes promotes utilization of diverse environmental resources, population stability and persistence, colonization success, and range expansions, and enhances the evolutionary potential and speciation. Conversely, we predict polymorphic populations to be less vulnerable to environmental change and at lower risk of range contractions and extinctions compared with monomorphic populations. We offer brief suggestions as to how these falsifiable predictions may be tested. PMID:18376544

  18. Tree Modeling and Dynamics Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian-shuang, Fu; Yi-bing, Li; Dong-xu, Shen

    This paper introduces the theory about tree modeling and dynamic movements simulation in computer graphics. By comparing many methods we choose Geometry-based rendering as our method. The tree is decomposed into branches and leaves, under the rotation and quaternion methods we realize the tree animation and avoid the Gimbals Lock in Euler rotation. We take Orge 3D as render engine, which has good graphics programming ability. By the end we realize the tree modeling and dynamic movements simulation, achieve realistic visual quality with little computation cost.

  19. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: lessons from ecology.

    PubMed

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M; Railsback, Steven F; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L

    2005-11-11

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity. PMID:16284171

  20. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  1. Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-11-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  2. Evolutionary model on market ecology of investors and investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Lü, Linyuan; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-08-01

    The interactions between investors and investments are of significant importance to understand the dynamics of financial markets. An evolutionary model is proposed to investigate the dynamic behaviors of investors and investments in a market ecology. The investors are divided into two groups, active ones and passive ones, distinguished by different selection capabilities based on the partial information, while the investments are simply categorized as good ones and bad ones. Without external influence, the system consisting of both investors and investments can self-organize to a quasi-stationary state according to their own strategies associating with the gains of market information. The model suggests that the partial information asymmetry of investors and various qualities of investments commonly give rise to a diverse dynamic behavior of the system by quantifying the fraction of active investors and of good investment at the quasi-stationary state.

  3. Automatic programming of simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, Shou X.; Dwan, Wen S.

    1990-01-01

    The concepts of software engineering were used to improve the simulation modeling environment. Emphasis was placed on the application of an element of rapid prototyping, or automatic programming, to assist the modeler define the problem specification. Then, once the problem specification has been defined, an automatic code generator is used to write the simulation code. The following two domains were selected for evaluating the concepts of software engineering for discrete event simulation: manufacturing domain and a spacecraft countdown network sequence. The specific tasks were to: (1) define the software requirements for a graphical user interface to the Automatic Manufacturing Programming System (AMPS) system; (2) develop a graphical user interface for AMPS; and (3) compare the AMPS graphical interface with the AMPS interactive user interface.

  4. Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

  5. University Macro Analytic Simulation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baron, Robert; Gulko, Warren

    The University Macro Analytic Simulation System (UMASS) has been designed as a forecasting tool to help university administrators budgeting decisions. Alternative budgeting strategies can be tested on a computer model and then an operational alternative can be selected on the basis of the most desirable projected outcome. UMASS uses readily…

  6. Ecological Risk Model of Childhood Obesity in Chinese Immigrant Children

    PubMed Central

    Zhou, Nan; Cheah, Charissa S. L.

    2015-01-01

    Chinese Americans are the largest and fastest growing Asian American subgroup, increasing about one-third during the 2000s. Despite the slender Asian stereotype, nearly one-third of 6-to-11 years old Chinese American children were found to be overweight (above the 85th percentile in BMI). Importantly, unique and severe health risks are associated with being overweight/obese in Chinese. Unfortunately, Chinese immigrant children have been neglected in the literature on obesity. This review aimed to identify factors at various levels of the ecological model that may place Chinese immigrant children at risk for being overweight/obese in the U.S. Key contextual factors at the micro-, meso-, exo-, macro- and chronosystem were identified guided by Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory. The corresponding mediating and moderating processes among the factors were also reviewed and proposed. By presenting a conceptual framework and relevant research, this review can provide a basic framework for directing future interdisciplinary research in seeking solutions to childhood obesity within this understudied population. PMID:25728887

  7. Ecological risk model of childhood obesity in Chinese immigrant children.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Nan; Cheah, Charissa S L

    2015-07-01

    Chinese Americans are the largest and fastest growing Asian American subgroup, increasing about one-third during the 2000s. Despite the slender Asian stereotype, nearly one-third of 6-to-11 year old Chinese American children were found to be overweight (above the 85th percentile in BMI). Importantly, unique and severe health risks are associated with being overweight/obese in Chinese. Unfortunately, Chinese immigrant children have been neglected in the literature on obesity. This review aimed to identify factors at various levels of the ecological model that may place Chinese immigrant children at risk for being overweight/obese in the U.S. Key contextual factors at the micro-, meso-, exo-, macro- and chronosystem were identified guided by Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory. The corresponding mediating and moderating processes among the factors were also reviewed and proposed. By presenting a conceptual framework and relevant research, this review can provide a basic framework for directing future interdisciplinary research in seeking solutions to childhood obesity within this understudied population. PMID:25728887

  8. Niche and neutral models predict asymptotically equivalent species abundance distributions in high-diversity ecological communities

    PubMed Central

    Chisholm, Ryan A.; Pacala, Stephen W.

    2010-01-01

    A fundamental challenge in ecology is to understand the mechanisms that govern patterns of relative species abundance. Previous numerical simulations have suggested that complex niche-structured models produce species abundance distributions (SADs) that are qualitatively similar to those of very simple neutral models that ignore differences between species. However, in the absence of an analytical treatment of niche models, one cannot tell whether the two classes of model produce the same patterns via similar or different mechanisms. We present an analytical proof that, in the limit as diversity becomes large, a strong niche model give rises to exactly the same asymptotic form of SAD as the neutral model, and we verify the analytical predictions for a Panamanian tropical forest data set. Our results strongly suggest that neutral processes drive patterns of relative species abundance in high-diversity ecological communities, even when strong niche structure exists. However, neutral theory cannot explain what generates high diversity in the first place, and it may not be valid in low-diversity communities. Our results also confirm that neutral theory cannot be used to infer an absence of niche structure or to explain ecosystem function. PMID:20733073

  9. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Temmerman, Stijn; D'Alpaos, Andrea; van de Koppel, Johan; Rybczyk, John; Reyes, Enrique; Craft, Chris; Clough, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

  10. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagherazzi, S.; Kirwan, M.L.; Mudd, S.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Temmerman, S.; D'Alpaos, A.; Van De Koppel, J.; Rybczyk, J.M.; Reyes, E.; Craft, C.; Clough, J.

    2012-01-01

    Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

  11. Simulating landscape change in the Olympic Peninsula using spatial ecological and socioeconomic data

    SciTech Connect

    Flamm, R.O. ); Gottfried, R. ); Lee, R.G.; Naiman, R.J. ); Turner, M.G. ); Wear, D. )

    1994-06-01

    Ecological and socioeconomic data were integrated to study landscape change for the Dungeness River basin in the Olympic Peninsula, Washington State. A multinomial logit procedure was used to evaluate twenty-two maps representing various data themes to derive transition probabilities of land cover change. Probabilities of forest disturbance were greater on private land than public. Between 1975 and 1988, forest cover increased, grassy/brushy covers decreased, and the number of forest patches increased about 30%. Simulations were run to estimate future land cover. These results were represented as frequency distributions for proportion cover and patch characteristics.

  12. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Swinhoe, Martyn T.

    2012-07-26

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R&D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  13. Multiscale Stochastic Simulation and Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    James Glimm; Xiaolin Li

    2006-01-10

    Acceleration driven instabilities of fluid mixing layers include the classical cases of Rayleigh-Taylor instability, driven by a steady acceleration and Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, driven by an impulsive acceleration. Our program starts with high resolution methods of numerical simulation of two (or more) distinct fluids, continues with analytic analysis of these solutions, and the derivation of averaged equations. A striking achievement has been the systematic agreement we obtained between simulation and experiment by using a high resolution numerical method and improved physical modeling, with surface tension. Our study is accompanies by analysis using stochastic modeling and averaged equations for the multiphase problem. We have quantified the error and uncertainty using statistical modeling methods.

  14. The HWVP availability simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Reisdorf, J.; Sienko, F.; Melville, D.; Gogg, T.

    1994-12-31

    This report described the hanford Waste Vitrification Plant simualtion model (HWVP).The model was utilized to simulate the performance and repair of remote handling equipment utilizied at the vitrification plant. The simulation model demonstrates that the HWVP has an availability of {approx} 85%. It also shows that both the MC and CDC cranes have a high utilization factor of {approx} 70%. This means that the crane`s idle time of {approx} 30% may not be sufficient to meet off-normal events such as canister rework. A study is recommended to optimize the crane operations in these areas. The ST/ET crane`s utilization factor is 16%, indicating that it can meet upset conditions. The analysis also shows that the canyon crane has a utilization factor of 29%, or it is idle 61% of the time. This large amount of inactive time demonstrates that the crane can service failed equipment without affecting production.

  15. Introducing BioSARN - an ecological niche model refinement tool.

    PubMed

    Heap, Marshall J

    2016-08-01

    Environmental niche modeling outputs a biological species' potential distribution. Further work is needed to arrive at a species' realized distribution. The Biological Species Approximate Realized Niche (BioSARN) application provides the ecological modeler with a toolset to refine Environmental niche models (ENMs). These tools include soil and land class filtering, niche area quantification and novelties like enhanced temporal corridor definition, and output to a high spatial resolution land class model. BioSARN is exemplified with a study on Fraser fir, a tree species with strong land class and edaphic correlations. Soil and land class filtering caused the potential distribution area to decline 17%. Enhanced temporal corridor definition permitted distinction of current, continuing, and future niches, and thus niche change and movement. Tile quantification analysis provided further corroboration of these trends. BioSARN does not substitute other established ENM methods. Rather, it allows the experimenter to work with their preferred ENM, refining it using their knowledge and experience. Output from lower spatial resolution ENMs to a high spatial resolution land class model is a pseudo high-resolution result. Still, it maybe the best that can be achieved until wide range high spatial resolution environmental data and accurate high precision species occurrence data become generally available. PMID:27547356

  16. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  17. Integrated Bayesian network framework for modeling complex ecological issues.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-07-01

    The management of environmental problems is multifaceted, requiring varied and sometimes conflicting objectives and perspectives to be considered. Bayesian network (BN) modeling facilitates the integration of information from diverse sources and is well suited to tackling the management challenges of complex environmental problems. However, combining several perspectives in one model can lead to large, unwieldy BNs that are difficult to maintain and understand. Conversely, an oversimplified model may lead to an unrealistic representation of the environmental problem. Environmental managers require the current research and available knowledge about an environmental problem of interest to be consolidated in a meaningful way, thereby enabling the assessment of potential impacts and different courses of action. Previous investigations of the environmental problem of interest may have already resulted in the construction of several disparate ecological models. On the other hand, the opportunity may exist to initiate this modeling. In the first instance, the challenge is to integrate existing models and to merge the information and perspectives from these models. In the second instance, the challenge is to include different aspects of the environmental problem incorporating both the scientific and management requirements. Although the paths leading to the combined model may differ for these 2 situations, the common objective is to design an integrated model that captures the available information and research, yet is simple to maintain, expand, and refine. BN modeling is typically an iterative process, and we describe a heuristic method, the iterative Bayesian network development cycle (IBNDC), for the development of integrated BN models that are suitable for both situations outlined above. The IBNDC approach facilitates object-oriented BN (OOBN) modeling, arguably viewed as the next logical step in adaptive management modeling, and that embraces iterative development

  18. Collective Philanthropy: Describing and Modeling the Ecology of Giving

    PubMed Central

    Gottesman, William L.; Reagan, Andrew James; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicated to education, medicine, art, public support, and religion. We find that the detailed forms of gift-size distributions differ across but are relatively constant within charity categories. We construct a model for how a donor's income affects their giving preferences in different charity categories, offering a mechanistic explanation for variations in institutional gift-size distributions. We discuss how knowledge of gift-sized distributions may be used to assess an institution's gift-giving profile, to help set fundraising goals, and to design an institution-specific giving pyramid. PMID:24983864

  19. Airborne castanea pollen forecasting model for ecological and allergological implementation.

    PubMed

    Astray, G; Fernández-González, M; Rodríguez-Rajo, F J; López, D; Mejuto, J C

    2016-04-01

    Castanea sativa Miller belongs to the natural vegetation of many European deciduous forests prompting impacts in the forestry, ecology, allergological and chestnut food industry fields. The study of the Castanea flowering represents an important tool for evaluating the ecological conservation of North-Western Spain woodland and the possible changes in the chestnut distribution due to recent climatic change. The Castanea pollen production and dispersal capacity may cause hypersensitivity reactions in the sensitive human population due to the relationship between patients with chestnut pollen allergy and a potential cross reactivity risk with other pollens or plant foods. In addition to Castanea pollen's importance as a pollinosis agent, its study is also essential in North-Western Spain due to the economic impact of the industry around the chestnut tree cultivation and its beekeeping interest. The aim of this research is to develop an Artificial Neural Networks for predict the Castanea pollen concentration in the atmosphere of the North-West Spain area by means a 20years data set. It was detected an increasing trend of the total annual Castanea pollen concentrations in the atmosphere during the study period. The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) implemented in this study show a great ability to predict Castanea pollen concentration one, two and three days ahead. The model to predict the Castanea pollen concentration one day ahead shows a high linear correlation coefficient of 0.784 (individual ANN) and 0.738 (multiple ANN). The results obtained improved those obtained by the classical methodology used to predict the airborne pollen concentrations such as time series analysis or other models based on the correlation of pollen levels with meteorological variables. PMID:26802339

  20. A new quantitative model of ecological compensation based on ecosystem capital in Zhejiang Province, China*

    PubMed Central

    Jin, Yan; Huang, Jing-feng; Peng, Dai-liang

    2009-01-01

    Ecological compensation is becoming one of key and multidiscipline issues in the field of resources and environmental management. Considering the change relation between gross domestic product (GDP) and ecological capital (EC) based on remote sensing estimation, we construct a new quantitative estimate model for ecological compensation, using county as study unit, and determine standard value so as to evaluate ecological compensation from 2001 to 2004 in Zhejiang Province, China. Spatial differences of the ecological compensation were significant among all the counties or districts. This model fills up the gap in the field of quantitative evaluation of regional ecological compensation and provides a feasible way to reconcile the conflicts among benefits in the economic, social, and ecological sectors. PMID:19353749

  1. Application of QUAL2K Model to Assess Ecological Purification Technology for a Polluted River

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Wenting; Niu, Qian; Zhang, Ruibin; Ye, Rui; Qian, Xin; Qian, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Industrialization and urbanization have caused water pollution and ecosystem degradation, especially in urban canals and rivers in China; accordingly, effective water quality improvement programs are needed. In this study, the Tianlai River in Jiangsu, China was taken as a research site, and a combination of ecological purification technologies consisting of biological rope, phytoremediation, and activated carbon were applied in a laboratory-scale study to examine degradation coefficients under dynamic water conditions. Coefficients were then input into the QUAL2K model to simulate various hypothetical scenarios and determine the minimum density of ecological purification combination and hydraulic retention time (HRT) to meet Grade V or IV of the China standard for surface water. The minimum densities for Grade V and IV were 1.6 times and 2 times the experimental density, while the minimum HRTs for Grade V and IV were 2.4 day and 3 day. The results of this study should provide a practical and efficient design method for ecological purification programs. PMID:25689997

  2. Rethinking the linear regression model for spatial ecological data.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Helene H

    2013-11-01

    The linear regression model, with its numerous extensions including multivariate ordination, is fundamental to quantitative research in many disciplines. However, spatial or temporal structure in the data may invalidate the regression assumption of independent residuals. Spatial structure at any spatial scale can be modeled flexibly based on a set of uncorrelated component patterns (e.g., Moran's eigenvector maps, MEM) that is derived from the spatial relationships between sampling locations as defined in a spatial weight matrix. Spatial filtering thus addresses spatial autocorrelation in the residuals by adding such component patterns (spatial eigenvectors) as predictors to the regression model. However, space is not an ecologically meaningful predictor, and commonly used tests for selecting significant component patterns do not take into account the specific nature of these variables. This paper proposes "spatial component regression" (SCR) as a new way of integrating the linear regression model with Moran's eigenvector maps. In its unconditioned form, SCR decomposes the relationship between response and predictors by component patterns, whereas conditioned SCR provides an alternative method of spatial filtering, taking into account the statistical properties of component patterns in the design of statistical hypothesis tests. Application to the well-known multivariate mite data set illustrates how SCR may be used to condition for significant residual spatial structure and to identify additional predictors associated with residual spatial structure. Finally, I argue that all variance is spatially structured, hence spatial independence is best characterized by a lack of excess variance at any spatial scale, i.e., spatial white noise. PMID:24400490

  3. Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fletcher, R.J., Jr.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

    2011-01-01

    Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

  4. Modeling Channelization in Coastal Wetlands with Ecological Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Z. J.; Mahadevan, A.; Pennings, S.; FitzGerald, D.

    2014-12-01

    In coastal wetlands in Georgia and South Carolina, dendritic channel networks are actively incising headward at the rate of nearly 2 m/yr. The future geomorphic evolution of these marshes remains in question as rates of relative sea-level rise increase. Our objective is to understand the mechanisms that lead to the evolution of these channel networks through field observations and modeling. We model the geomorphological evolution of tidal creeks by viewing the wetland as a permeable medium. The porosity of the medium affects its hydraulic conductivity, which in turn is altered by erosion. Our multiphase model spontaneously generates channelization and branching networks through flow and erosion. In our field studies, we find that crabs play an active role in grazing vegetation and in the bioturbation of sediments. These effects are incorporated in our model based on field and laboratory observations of crab behavior and its effects on the marsh. We find the erosional patterns and channelization are significantly altered by the faunal feedback. Crabs enhance the growth of channels, inducing the headward erosion of creeks where flow-induced stresses are weakest. They are instrumental in generating high rates of creek extension, which channelize the marsh more effectively in response to sea-level rise. This indicates that the evolution of coastal wetlands is responding to interactions between physics and ecology and highlights the importance of the faunal contribution to these feedbacks.

  5. Simulation Framework for Teaching in Modeling and Simulation Areas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Giusti, Marisa Raquel; Lira, Ariel Jorge; Villarreal, Gonzalo Lujan

    2008-01-01

    Simulation is the process of executing a model that describes a system with enough detail; this model has its entities, an internal state, some input and output variables and a list of processes bound to these variables. Teaching a simulation language such as general purpose simulation system (GPSS) is always a challenge, because of the way it…

  6. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolker, Benjamin M.; Gardner, Beth; Maunder, Mark; Berg, Casper W.; Brooks, Mollie; Comita, Liza; Crone, Elizabeth; Cubaynes, Sarah; Davies, Trevor; de Valpine, Perry; Ford, Jessica; Gimenez, Olivier; Kéry, Marc; Kim, Eun Jung; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Magunsson, Arni; Martell, Steve; Nash, John; Nielson, Anders; Regentz, Jim; Skaug, Hans; Zipkin, Elise

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data.

  7. Simulating spin models on GPU

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weigel, Martin

    2011-09-01

    Over the last couple of years it has been realized that the vast computational power of graphics processing units (GPUs) could be harvested for purposes other than the video game industry. This power, which at least nominally exceeds that of current CPUs by large factors, results from the relative simplicity of the GPU architectures as compared to CPUs, combined with a large number of parallel processing units on a single chip. To benefit from this setup for general computing purposes, the problems at hand need to be prepared in a way to profit from the inherent parallelism and hierarchical structure of memory accesses. In this contribution I discuss the performance potential for simulating spin models, such as the Ising model, on GPU as compared to conventional simulations on CPU.

  8. Standard for Models and Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2016-01-01

    This NASA Technical Standard establishes uniform practices in modeling and simulation to ensure essential requirements are applied to the design, development, and use of models and simulations (MS), while ensuring acceptance criteria are defined by the program project and approved by the responsible Technical Authority. It also provides an approved set of requirements, recommendations, and criteria with which MS may be developed, accepted, and used in support of NASA activities. As the MS disciplines employed and application areas involved are broad, the common aspects of MS across all NASA activities are addressed. The discipline-specific details of a given MS should be obtained from relevant recommended practices. The primary purpose is to reduce the risks associated with MS-influenced decisions by ensuring the complete communication of the credibility of MS results.

  9. Rule-based simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

    1991-01-01

    Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

  10. Simulation model for the closed plant experiment facility of CEEF.

    PubMed

    Abe, Koichi; Ishikawa, Yoshio; Kibe, Seishiro; Nitta, Keiji

    2005-01-01

    The Closed Ecology Experiment Facilities (CEEF) is a testbed for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) investigations. CEEF including the physico-chemical material regenerative system has been constructed for the experiments of material circulation among plants, breeding animals and crew of CEEF. Because CEEF is a complex system, an appropriate schedule for the operation must be prepared in advance. The CEEF behavioral Prediction System, CPS, that will help to confirm the operation schedule, is under development. CPS will simulate CEEFs behavior with data (conditions of equipments, quantity of materials in tanks, etc.) of CEEF and an operation schedule that will be made by the operation team everyday, before the schedule will be carried out. The result of the simulation will show whether the operation schedule is appropriate or not. In order to realize CPS, models of the simulation program that is installed in CPS must mirror the real facilities of CEEF. For the first step of development, a flexible algorithm of the simulation program was investigated. The next step was development of a replicate simulation model of the material circulation system for the Closed Plant Experiment Facility (CPEF) that is a part of CEEF. All the parts of a real material circulation system for CPEF are connected together and work as a complex mechanism. In the simulation model, the system was separated into 38 units according to its operational segmentation. In order to develop each model for its corresponding unit, specifications for the model were fixed based on the specifications of the real part. These models were put into a simulation model for the system. PMID:16175692

  11. Simulation model for the closed plant experiment facility of CEEF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abe, Koichi; Ishikawa, Yoshio; Kibe, Seishiro; Nitta, Keiji

    The Closed Ecology Experiment Facilities (CEEF) is a testbed for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) investigations. CEEF including the physico-chemical material regenerative system has been constructed for the experiments of material circulation among plants, breeding animals and crew of CEEF. Because CEEF is a complex system, an appropriate schedule for the operation must be prepared in advance. The CEEF behavioral Prediction System, CPS, that will help to confirm the operation schedule, is under development. CPS will simulate CEEFs behavior with data (conditions of equipments, quantity of materials in tanks, etc.) of CEEF and an operation schedule that will be made by the operation team everyday, before the schedule will be carried out. The result of the simulation will show whether the operation schedule is appropriate or not. In order to realize CPS, models of the simulation program that is installed in CPS must mirror the real facilities of CEEF. For the first step of development, a flexible algorithm of the simulation program was investigated. The next step was development of a replicate simulation model of the material circulation system for the Closed Plant Experiment Facility (CPEF) that is a part of CEEF. All the parts of a real material circulation system for CPEF are connected together and work as a complex mechanism. In the simulation model, the system was separated into 38 units according to its operational segmentation. In order to develop each model for its corresponding unit, specifications for the model were fixed based on the specifications of the real part. These models were put into a simulation model for the system.

  12. Analysis of ecological transitions in the Black Sea during the last four decades: A modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris; Oguz, Temel

    2010-05-01

    This work investigates the Black Sea ecosystem and the changes it had undergone in the second half of the 20th century from a fisheries perspective using Ecopath, a widely adopted fisheries model. Different states of the Black Sea ecosystem were modeled using 5 simulation scenarios: Simulation 1, represents the quasi-pristine conditions of the Black Sea ecosystem during early 1960's; Simulation 2, represents the over-enrichment period of the ecosystem during early 1980's before the fisheries collapse and the outburst of alien ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi; Simulation 3, represents the changes in the ecosystem along with the outburst of Mnemiopsis in 1989; Simulation 4, represents the aftermath effects in the components of the Black Sea ecosystem just after the collapse of the fisheries; and Simulation 5, represents the recovery period of the fish stocks in the very beginning of the 1990's. According to the results of the model runs, it was found that the Black Sea ecosystem in its quasi-pristine conditions during early 1960's was top-down controlled. The piscivorous pelagic fish and dolphins exerted predation pressure on small pelagic fish species and suppressed their over-development. Our findings suggest that after the removal of these top predators from the ecosystem due to fishing and whaling, the small pelagic fish species had the opportunity to thrive themselves along with the over-enrichment of the Black Sea and reached high biomass levels in 1980's. Small pelagic fishes prevailed in the Black Sea ecosystem until the highly debated outburst of alien ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi. In 1989, the biomass of small pelagic fish species declined drastically and their population did not recover until the very beginning of 1990's due to various ecological and anthropogenic effects put forward by the outcomes of the simulations.

  13. Sensitivity analysis as an aid in modelling and control of (poorly-defined) ecological systems. [closed ecological systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornberger, G. M.; Rastetter, E. B.

    1982-01-01

    A literature review of the use of sensitivity analyses in modelling nonlinear, ill-defined systems, such as ecological interactions is presented. Discussions of previous work, and a proposed scheme for generalized sensitivity analysis applicable to ill-defined systems are included. This scheme considers classes of mathematical models, problem-defining behavior, analysis procedures (especially the use of Monte-Carlo methods), sensitivity ranking of parameters, and extension to control system design.

  14. [Ecological security early-warning in Zhoushan Islands based on variable weight model].

    PubMed

    Zhou, Bin; Zhong, Lin-sheng; Chen, Tian; Zhou, Rui

    2015-06-01

    Ecological security early warning, as an important content of ecological security research, is of indicating significance in maintaining regional ecological security. Based on driving force, pressure, state, impact and response (D-P-S-I-R) framework model, this paper took Zhoushan Islands in Zhejiang Province as an example to construct the ecological security early warning index system, test degrees of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands from 2000 to 2012 by using the method of variable weight model, and forecast ecological security state of 2013-2018 by Markov prediction method. The results showed that the variable weight model could meet the study needs of ecological security early warning of Zhoushan Islands. There was a fluctuant rising ecological security early warning index from 0.286 to 0.484 in Zhoushan Islands between year 2000 and 2012, in which the security grade turned from "serious alert" into " medium alert" and the indicator light turned from "orange" to "yellow". The degree of ecological security warning was "medium alert" with the light of "yellow" for Zhoushan Islands from 2013 to 2018. These findings could provide a reference for ecological security maintenance of Zhoushan Islands. PMID:26572042

  15. Testing Natureserve's ecological integrity assessment model in Michigan and Indiana

    EPA Science Inventory

    NatureServe, in partnership with member programs from the Natural Heritage Network and federal agencies, has developed an assessment of ecosystems condition, structured around the concept of ecological integrity. Our multi-metric approach for our Ecological Integrity Assessment m...

  16. Interdisciplinary Industrial Ecology Education: Recommendations for an Inclusive Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Archana

    2009-01-01

    Industrial ecology education is being developed and delivered predominantly within the domains of engineering and management. Such an approach could prove somewhat limiting to the broader goal of developing industrial ecology as an integrated knowledge base inclusive of diverse disciplines, contributing to sustainable development. This paper…

  17. Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model

    SciTech Connect

    2003-04-25

    The Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model (GENSIM) is a user-friendly, high-level dynamic simulation model that calculates electricity production costs for variety of electricity generation technologies, including: pulverized coal, gas combustion turbine, gas combined cycle, nuclear, solar (PV and thermal), and wind. The model allows the user to quickly conduct sensitivity analysis on key variables, including: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; and capacity factors. The model also includes consideration of a wide range of externality costs and pollution control options for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury. Two different data sets are included in the model; one from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the other from Platt's Research Group. Likely users of this model include executives and staff in the Congress, the Administration and private industry (power plant builders, industrial electricity users and electric utilities). The model seeks to improve understanding of the economic viability of various generating technologies and their emission trade-offs. The base case results using the DOE data, indicate that in the absence of externality costs, or renewable tax credits, pulverized coal and gas combined cycle plants are the least cost alternatives at 3.7 and 3.5 cents/kwhr, respectively. A complete sensitivity analysis on fuel, capital, and construction time shows that these results coal and gas are much more sensitive to assumption about fuel prices than they are to capital costs or construction times. The results also show that making nuclear competitive with coal or gas requires significant reductions in capital costs, to the $1000/kW level, if no other changes are made. For renewables, the results indicate that wind is now competitive with the nuclear option and is only competitive with coal and gas for grid connected applications if one includes the federal production tax credit

  18. Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-04-25

    The Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model (GENSIM) is a user-friendly, high-level dynamic simulation model that calculates electricity production costs for variety of electricity generation technologies, including: pulverized coal, gas combustion turbine, gas combined cycle, nuclear, solar (PV and thermal), and wind. The model allows the user to quickly conduct sensitivity analysis on key variables, including: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; and capacity factors. The model also includes consideration ofmore » a wide range of externality costs and pollution control options for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury. Two different data sets are included in the model; one from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the other from Platt's Research Group. Likely users of this model include executives and staff in the Congress, the Administration and private industry (power plant builders, industrial electricity users and electric utilities). The model seeks to improve understanding of the economic viability of various generating technologies and their emission trade-offs. The base case results using the DOE data, indicate that in the absence of externality costs, or renewable tax credits, pulverized coal and gas combined cycle plants are the least cost alternatives at 3.7 and 3.5 cents/kwhr, respectively. A complete sensitivity analysis on fuel, capital, and construction time shows that these results coal and gas are much more sensitive to assumption about fuel prices than they are to capital costs or construction times. The results also show that making nuclear competitive with coal or gas requires significant reductions in capital costs, to the $1000/kW level, if no other changes are made. For renewables, the results indicate that wind is now competitive with the nuclear option and is only competitive with coal and gas for grid connected applications if one includes the federal production tax

  19. Stability of ecological industry chain: an entropy model approach.

    PubMed

    Wang, Qingsong; Qiu, Shishou; Yuan, Xueliang; Zuo, Jian; Cao, Dayong; Hong, Jinglan; Zhang, Jian; Dong, Yong; Zheng, Ying

    2016-07-01

    A novel methodology is proposed in this study to examine the stability of ecological industry chain network based on entropy theory. This methodology is developed according to the associated dissipative structure characteristics, i.e., complexity, openness, and nonlinear. As defined in the methodology, network organization is the object while the main focus is the identification of core enterprises and core industry chains. It is proposed that the chain network should be established around the core enterprise while supplementation to the core industry chain helps to improve system stability, which is verified quantitatively. Relational entropy model can be used to identify core enterprise and core eco-industry chain. It could determine the core of the network organization and core eco-industry chain through the link form and direction of node enterprises. Similarly, the conductive mechanism of different node enterprises can be examined quantitatively despite the absence of key data. Structural entropy model can be employed to solve the problem of order degree for network organization. Results showed that the stability of the entire system could be enhanced by the supplemented chain around the core enterprise in eco-industry chain network organization. As a result, the sustainability of the entire system could be further improved. PMID:27055893

  20. Using two-dimensional hydrodynamic models at scales of ecological importance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crowder, D. W.; Diplas, P.

    2000-05-01

    Modeling of flow features that are important in assessing stream habitat conditions has been a long-standing interest of stream biologists. Recently, they have begun examining the usefulness of two-dimensional (2-D) hydrodynamic models in attaining this objective. Current modeling practices consider relatively long channel sections with their bathymetry represented in terms of large, macro-scale, topographic features. Meso-scale topographic features, such as boulders, root-wads and other obstructions are typically not considered in the modeling process. Instead, the overall effects of these flow obstructions are captured through increased values in the channel roughness parameters. Such an approach to 2-D modeling allows one to accurately predict average depth and velocity values; however, it is not capable of providing any information about the flow patterns in the vicinity of these obstructions. Biologists though have known that such meso-scale features and the complex velocity patterns generated by their presence, play an important role in the ecology of streams, and thus cannot be ignored. It is therefore evident that there is a need to develop better tools, capable of modeling flow characteristics at scales of ecological importance. The purpose of this study is to expand the utility of 2-D hydraulic models to capture these flow features that are critical for characterizing stream habitat conditions. There exists a paucity of research addressing what types of topographic features should be included in 2-D model studies and to what extent a boulder or series of exposed boulders can influence predicted flow conditions and traditional useable habitat computations. Moreover, little research has been performed to evaluate the impact mesh refinement has on model results in natural streams. Numerical simulations, based on a natural river channel containing several large boulders, indicate that explicitly modeling local obstructions/boulders can significantly impact

  1. SEMI Modeling and Simulation Roadmap

    SciTech Connect

    Hermina, W.L.

    2000-10-02

    With the exponential growth in the power of computing hardware and software, modeling and simulation is becoming a key enabler for the rapid design of reliable Microsystems. One vision of the future microsystem design process would include the following primary software capabilities: (1) The development of 3D part design, through standard CAD packages, with automatic design rule checks that guarantee the manufacturability and performance of the microsystem. (2) Automatic mesh generation, for 3D parts as manufactured, that permits computational simulation of the process steps, and the performance and reliability analysis for the final microsystem. (3) Computer generated 2D layouts for process steps that utilize detailed process models to generate the layout and process parameter recipe required to achieve the desired 3D part. (4) Science-based computational tools that can simulate the process physics, and the coupled thermal, fluid, structural, solid mechanics, electromagnetic and material response governing the performance and reliability of the microsystem. (5) Visualization software that permits the rapid visualization of 3D parts including cross-sectional maps, performance and reliability analysis results, and process simulation results. In addition to these desired software capabilities, a desired computing infrastructure would include massively parallel computers that enable rapid high-fidelity analysis, coupled with networked compute servers that permit computing at a distance. We now discuss the individual computational components that are required to achieve this vision. There are three primary areas of focus: design capabilities, science-based capabilities and computing infrastructure. Within each of these areas, there are several key capability requirements.

  2. Simulation and experimental studies of operators` decision styles and crew composition while using an ecological and traditional user interface for the control room of a nuclear power plant

    SciTech Connect

    Meshkati, N.; Buller, B.J.; Azadeh, M.A.

    1995-04-01

    The goal of this research is threefold: (1) use of the Skill-, Rule-, and Knowledge-based levels of cognitive control -- the SRK framework -- to develop an integrated information processing conceptual framework (for integration of workstation, job, and team design); (2) to evaluate the user interface component of this framework -- the Ecological display; and (3) to analyze the effect of operators` individual information processing behavior and decision styles on handling plant disturbances plus their performance on, and preference for, Traditional and Ecological user interfaces. A series of studies were conducted. In Part I, a computer simulation model and a mathematical model were developed. In Part II, an experiment was designed and conducted at the EBR-II plant of the Argonne National Laboratory-West in Idaho Falls, Idaho. It is concluded that: the integrated SRK-based information processing model for control room operations is superior to the conventional rule-based model; operators` individual decision styles and the combination of their styles play a significant role in effective handling of nuclear power plant disturbances; use of the Ecological interface results in significantly more accurate event diagnosis and recall of various plant parameters, faster response to plant transients, and higher ratings of subject preference; and operators` decision styles affect on both their performance and preference for the Ecological interface.

  3. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  4. Identifying Droughts by Modeling the Hydrologic and Ecologic Responses in the Medjerda River Basin, Tunisia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Y.; Koike, T.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.

    2013-12-01

    Drought brings severe damage to water and agricultural resources, and both of hydrological and ecological responses are important for understanding droughts. However, the ecological contributions to drought characteristics at the basin scale have not been quantified. To address this issue, we developed an eco-hydrological model that can calculate vegetation dynamics as a diagnostic valuable in a distributed-hydrological modeling framework and identified different drought types in the Medjerda River Basin where drought is a predominant issue. From the inputs and outputs of the model, we calculate drought indices for different drought types. The model shows reliable accuracy in reproducing the observed river discharge and the satellite observed leaf area index in the long-term (19-year) simulation. Moreover, the drought index calculated from model estimated annual peak of leaf area index is well correlated (correlation coefficient; r = 0.89; see Figure) with drought index from nationwide annual crop production, which show the modeled leaf area index has enough capacity to reproducing agricultural droughts that can be related with historical food shortage on 1988-1989 and 1993-1995. Our model can estimate vegetation dynamics and water cycle simultaneously in the enough accuracy to analyze the basin-scale agricultural and hydrological droughts separately. We clarify that vegetation dynamics has quicker response to meteorological droughts than river discharge and groundwater dynamics in Medjerda River Basin because vegetation dynamics is sensitive to soil moisture in surface layers while soil moisture in deeper layers strongly contributes to stream flow and depth of groundwater level. Therefore, historical agricultural droughts predominantly occurred prior to hydrological droughts and in the 1988-1989 drought, the hydrological drought lasted much longer even after crop production recovered. Standardized anomaly index (SA) for estimated annual maximum leaf area index

  5. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  6. Modelling and simulation of radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkby, Norman F.

    2007-02-01

    In this paper, models are described which have been developed to model both the way in which a population of cells respond to radiation and the way in which a population of patients respond to radiotherapy to assist the conduct of clinical trials in silico. Population balance techniques have been used to simulate the age distribution of tumour cells in the cell cycle. Sensitivity to radiation is not constant round the cell cycle and a single fraction of radiation changes the age distribution. Careful timing of further fractions of radiation can be used to maximize the damage delivered to the tumour while minimizing damage to normal tissue. However, tumour modelling does not necessarily predict patient outcome. A separate model has been established to predict the course of a brain cancer called glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The model considers the growth of the tumour and its effect on the normal brain. A simple representation is included of the health status of the patient and hence the type of treatment offered. It is concluded that although these and similar models have a long way yet to be developed, they are beginning to have an impact on the development of clinical practice.

  7. Uterine Contraction Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Miao; Belfore, Lee A.; Shen, Yuzhong; Scerbo, Mark W.

    2010-01-01

    Building a training system for medical personnel to properly interpret fetal heart rate tracing requires developing accurate models that can relate various signal patterns to certain pathologies. In addition to modeling the fetal heart rate signal itself, the change of uterine pressure that bears strong relation to fetal heart rate and provides indications of maternal and fetal status should also be considered. In this work, we have developed a group of parametric models to simulate uterine contractions during labor and delivery. Through analysis of real patient records, we propose to model uterine contraction signals by three major components: regular contractions, impulsive noise caused by fetal movements, and low amplitude noise invoked by maternal breathing and measuring apparatus. The regular contractions are modeled by an asymmetric generalized Gaussian function and least squares estimation is used to compute the parameter values of the asymmetric generalized Gaussian function based on uterine contractions of real patients. Regular contractions are detected based on thresholding and derivative analysis of uterine contractions. Impulsive noise caused by fetal movements and low amplitude noise by maternal breathing and measuring apparatus are modeled by rational polynomial functions and Perlin noise, respectively. Experiment results show the synthesized uterine contractions can mimic the real uterine contractions realistically, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

  8. Plasma disruption modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hassanein, A.

    1994-07-01

    Disruptions in tokamak reactors are considered a limiting factor to successful operation and a reliable design. The behavior of plasma-facing components during a disruption is critical to the overall integrity of the reactor. Erosion of plasma facing-material (PFM) surfaces due to thermal energy dump during the disruption can severely limit the lifetime of these components and thus diminish the economic feasibility of the reactor.Initially, the incident plasma particles will deposit their energy directly on the PFM surface, heating it to a very high temperature where ablation occurs. Models for plasma-material interactions have been developed and used to predict material thermal evolution during the disruption. Within a few microseconds after the start of the disruption, enough material is vaporized to intercept most of the incoming plasma particles. Models for plasma-vapor interactions are necessary to predict vapor cloud expansion and hydrodynamics. Continuous heating of the vapor cloud above the material surface by the incident plasma particles will excite, ionize, and cause vapor atoms to emit thermal radiation. Accurate models for radiation transport in the vapor are essential for calculating the net radiated flux to the material surface which determines the final erosion thickness and consequently component lifetime. A comprehensive model that takes into account various stages of plasma-material interaction has been developed and used to predict erosion rates during reactor disruption, as well during induced disruption in laboratory experiments. Differences between various simulation experiments and reactor conditions are discussed. A two-dimensional radiation transport model has been developed to particularly simulate the effect of small test samples used in laboratory disruption experiments.

  9. A National Disturbance Modeling System to Support Ecological Carbon Sequestration Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Rollins, M. G.; Volegmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Sohl, T. L.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is prototyping a methodology to fulfill requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. At the core of the EISA requirements is the development of a methodology to complete a two-year assessment of current carbon stocks and other greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and potential increases for ecological carbon sequestration under a range of future climate changes, land-use / land-cover configurations, and policy, economic and management scenarios. Disturbances, especially fire, affect vegetation dynamics and ecosystem processes, and can also introduce substantial uncertainty and risk to the efficacy of long-term carbon sequestration strategies. Thus, the potential impacts of disturbances need to be considered under different scenarios. As part of USGS efforts to meet EISA requirements, we developed the National Disturbance Modeling System (NDMS) using a series of statistical and process-based simulation models. NDMS produces spatially-explicit forecasts of future disturbance locations and severity, and the resulting effects on vegetation dynamics. NDMS is embedded within the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Cover (FORE-SCE) model and informs the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) for quantifying carbon stocks and GHG fluxes. For fires, NDMS relies on existing disturbance histories, such as the Landsat derived Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) data being used to update LANDFIRE fuels data. The MTBS and VCT data are used to parameterize models predicting the number and size of fires in relation to climate, land-use/land-cover change, and socioeconomic variables. The locations of individual fire ignitions are determined by an ignition probability surface and then FARSITE is used to simulate fire spread in response to weather, fuels, and topography. Following the fire spread simulations, a burn severity model is used to determine annual

  10. Locating Pleistocene Refugia: Comparing Phylogeographic and Ecological Niche Model Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Waltari, Eric; Hijmans, Robert J.; Peterson, A. Townsend; Nyári, Árpád S.; Perkins, Susan L.; Guralnick, Robert P.

    2007-01-01

    Ecological niche models (ENMs) provide a means of characterizing the spatial distribution of suitable conditions for species, and have recently been applied to the challenge of locating potential distributional areas at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) when unfavorable climate conditions led to range contractions and fragmentation. Here, we compare and contrast ENM-based reconstructions of LGM refugial locations with those resulting from the more traditional molecular genetic and phylogeographic predictions. We examined 20 North American terrestrial vertebrate species from different regions and with different range sizes for which refugia have been identified based on phylogeographic analyses, using ENM tools to make parallel predictions. We then assessed the correspondence between the two approaches based on spatial overlap and areal extent of the predicted refugia. In 14 of the 20 species, the predictions from ENM and predictions based on phylogeographic studies were significantly spatially correlated, suggesting that the two approaches to development of refugial maps are converging on a similar result. Our results confirm that ENM scenario exploration can provide a useful complement to molecular studies, offering a less subjective, spatially explicit hypothesis of past geographic patterns of distribution. PMID:17622339

  11. STABLE ISOTOPES IN ECOLOGICAL STUDIES: NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIXING MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Stable isotopes are increasingly being used as tracers in ecological studies. One application uses isotopic ratios to quantify the proportional contributions of multiple sources to a mixture. Examples include food sources for animals, water sources for plants, pollution sources...

  12. A modular BLSS simulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rummel, John D.; Volk, Tyler

    1987-01-01

    A bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on Earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processors or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing the examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.

  13. Modeling on an ecological food chain with recycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Qinghua; Mohamad, Zakaria; Yuan, Yuan

    2012-12-01

    We propose two nutrient-phytoplankton models with instantaneous and time delayed recycling, investigate the dynamics and examine the responses to model complexities. Instead of the familiar specific uptake rate and growth rate functions, we assume only that the nutrient uptake and phytoplankton growth rate functions are positive, increasing and bounded above. We use geometrical and analytical methods to find conditions for the existence of none, one, or at most two positive steady states and analyze the stability properties of each of these equilibria. With the variation of parameters, the system may lose its stability and bifurcation may occur. We study the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation and the possibility of stability switching. Numerical simulations illustrate the analytical results and provide further insight into the dynamics of the models, biological interpretations are given.

  14. Ubiquitin: molecular modeling and simulations.

    PubMed

    Ganoth, Assaf; Tsfadia, Yossi; Wiener, Reuven

    2013-11-01

    The synthesis and destruction of proteins are imperative for maintaining their cellular homeostasis. In the 1970s, Aaron Ciechanover, Avram Hershko, and Irwin Rose discovered that certain proteins are tagged by ubiquitin before degradation, a discovery that awarded them the 2004 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Compelling data gathered during the last several decades show that ubiquitin plays a vital role not only in protein degradation but also in many cellular functions including DNA repair processes, cell cycle regulation, cell growth, immune system functionality, hormone-mediated signaling in plants, vesicular trafficking pathways, regulation of histone modification and viral budding. Due to the involvement of ubiquitin in such a large number of diverse cellular processes, flaws and impairments in the ubiquitin system were found to be linked to cancer, neurodegenerative diseases, genetic disorders, and immunological disorders. Hence, deciphering the dynamics and complexity of the ubiquitin system is of significant importance. In addition to experimental techniques, computational methodologies have been gaining increasing influence in protein research and are used to uncover the structure, stability, folding, mechanism of action and interactions of proteins. Notably, molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations have become powerful tools that bridge the gap between structure and function while providing dynamic insights and illustrating essential mechanistic characteristics. In this study, we present an overview of molecular modeling and simulations of ubiquitin and the ubiquitin system, evaluate the status of the field, and offer our perspective on future progress in this area of research. PMID:24113788

  15. A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures. Methods A new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns. Results Results for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored. Conclusions The ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools. PMID:21999664

  16. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  17. The Efficacy of Ecological Macro-Models in Preservice Teacher Education: Transforming States of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stibbards, Adam; Puk, Tom

    2011-01-01

    The present study aimed to describe and evaluate a transformative, embodied, emergent learning approach to acquiring ecological literacy through higher education. A class of teacher candidates in a bachelor of education program filled out a survey, which had them rate their level of agreement with 15 items related to ecological macro-models.…

  18. Georeferenced model simulations efficiently support targeted monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berlekamp, Jürgen; Klasmeier, Jörg

    2010-05-01

    The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) demands the good ecological and chemical status of surface waters. To meet the definition of good chemical status of the WFD surface water concentrations of priority pollutants must not exceed established environmental quality standards (EQS). Surveillance of the concentrations of numerous chemical pollutants in whole river basins by monitoring is laborious and time-consuming. Moreover, measured data do often not allow for immediate source apportionment which is a prerequisite for defining promising reduction strategies to be implemented within the programme of measures. In this context, spatially explicit model approaches are highly advantageous because they provide a direct link between local point emissions (e.g. treated wastewater) or diffuse non-point emissions (e.g. agricultural runoff) and resulting surface water concentrations. Scenario analyses with such models allow for a priori investigation of potential positive effects of reduction measures such as optimization of wastewater treatment. The geo-referenced model GREAT-ER (Geography-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers) has been designed to calculate spatially resolved averaged concentrations for different flow conditions (e.g. mean or low flow) based on emission estimations for local point source emissions such as treated effluents from wastewater treatment plants. The methodology was applied to selected pharmaceuticals (diclofenac, sotalol, metoprolol, carbamazepin) in the Main river basin in Germany (approx. 27,290 km²). Average concentrations of the compounds were calculated for each river reach in the whole catchment. Simulation results were evaluated by comparison with available data from orienting monitoring and used to develop an optimal monitoring strategy for the assessment of water quality regarding micropollutants at the catchment scale.

  19. The ecological effects of thermopeaking in Alpine streams in flume simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiolini, Bruno; Carolli, Mauro; Bruno, M. Cristina; Siviglia, Annunziato

    2010-05-01

    and generated by any disturbance). Drifting invertebrates were collected at time intervals before the simulation, and at continuous, short-time intervals during the simulation in order to follow the changes in drift over a short time period during the simulation. We assessed the effects of thermopreaking on the benthos community by answering to the following questions: 1) Do thermal alterations induce an increase in drift of benthic invertebrates? 3) Do a reduction or an increase in water temperature have different effects of invertebrate drift? Benthic invertebrates responded more to the cold thermopeaking simulations, with differences among taxa with different life strategies and ecological requirements.

  20. Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tai, Jimmy C. M.; McClure, Erin K.; Mavris, Dimitri N.; Burg, Cecile

    2002-01-01

    The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

  1. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel.

  2. Framework for analyzing ecological trait-based models in multidimensional niche spaces.

    PubMed

    Biancalani, Tommaso; DeVille, Lee; Goldenfeld, Nigel

    2015-05-01

    We develop a theoretical framework for analyzing ecological models with a multidimensional niche space. Our approach relies on the fact that ecological niches are described by sequences of symbols, which allows us to include multiple phenotypic traits. Ecological drivers, such as competitive exclusion, are modeled by introducing the Hamming distance between two sequences. We show that a suitable transform diagonalizes the community interaction matrix of these models, making it possible to predict the conditions for niche differentiation and, close to the instability onset, the asymptotically long time population distributions of niches. We exemplify our method using the Lotka-Volterra equations with an exponential competition kernel. PMID:26066119

  3. An approximate model for pulsar navigation simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jovanovic, Ilija; Enright, John

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents an approximate model for the simulation of pulsar aided navigation systems. High fidelity simulations of these systems are computationally intensive and impractical for simulating periods of a day or more. Simulation of yearlong missions is done by abstracting navigation errors as periodic Gaussian noise injections. This paper presents an intermediary approximate model to simulate position errors for periods of several weeks, useful for building more accurate Gaussian error models. This is done by abstracting photon detection and binning, replacing it with a simple deterministic process. The approximate model enables faster computation of error injection models, allowing the error model to be inexpensively updated throughout a simulation. Testing of the approximate model revealed an optimistic performance prediction for non-millisecond pulsars with more accurate predictions for pulsars in the millisecond spectrum. This performance gap was attributed to noise which is not present in the approximate model but can be predicted and added to improve accuracy.

  4. Nutrient and plankton dynamics in an intermittently closed/open lagoon, Smiths Lake, south-eastern Australia: An ecological model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Everett, Jason D.; Baird, Mark E.; Suthers, Iain M.

    2007-05-01

    A spatially resolved, eleven-box ecological model is presented for an Intermittently Closed and Open Lake or Lagoon (ICOLL), configured for Smiths Lake, NSW Australia. ICOLLs are characterised by low flow from the catchment and a dynamic sand bar blocking oceanic exchange, which creates two distinct phases - open and closed. The process descriptions in the ecological model are based on a combination of physical and physiological limits to the processes of nutrient uptake, light capture by phytoplankton and predator-prey interactions. An inverse model is used to calculate mixing coefficients from salinity observations. When compared to field data, the ecological model obtains a fit for salinity, nitrogen, phosphorus, chlorophyll a and zooplankton which is within 1.5 standard deviations of the mean of the field data. Simulations show that nutrient limitation (nitrogen and phosphorus) is the dominant factor limiting growth of the autotrophic state variables during both the open and closed phases of the lake. The model is characterised by strong oscillations in phytoplankton and zooplankton abundance, typical of predator-prey cycles. There is an increase in the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton during the open phase. This increased productivity is exported out of the lagoon with a net nitrogen export from water column variables of 489 and 2012 mol N d -1 during the two studied openings. The model is found to be most sensitive to the mortality and feeding efficiency of zooplankton.

  5. Aeroacoustic simulation for phonation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irwin, Jeffrey; Hanford, Amanda; Craven, Brent; Krane, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The phonation process occurs as air expelled from the lungs creates a pressure drop and a subsequent air flow across the larynx. The fluid-structure interaction between the turbulent air flow and oscillating vocal folds, combined with additional resonance in the oral and nasal cavities, creates much of what we hear in the human voice. As many voice-related disorders can be traced to irregular vocal tract shape or motion, it is important to understand in detail the physics involved in the phonation process. To numerically compute the physics of phonation, a solver must be able to accurately model acoustic airflow through a moving domain. The open-source CFD package OpenFOAM is currently being used to evaluate existing solvers against simple acoustic test cases, including an open-ended resonator and an expansion chamber, both of which utilize boundary conditions simulating acoustic sources as well as anechoic termination. Results of these test cases will be presented and compared with theory, and the future development of a three-dimensional vocal tract model and custom-mode acoustic solver will be discussed. Acknowledge support of NIH grant 5R01DC005642 and ARL E&F program.

  6. An Ecological Model of Child Maltreatment in a Canadian Province.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krishnan, Vijaya; Morrison, Kenneth B.

    1995-01-01

    This study employed an ecological perspective to predict variations in the rate of child abuse and neglect among children aged 0 to 19 years in Alberta, Canada, in 1986. Positive correlates of the child maltreatment rate included population change, unemployment rate, percent Native, and North West region of Alberta. Implications for assessing…

  7. Modelling the ecological-functional diversification of marine Metazoa on geological time scales.

    PubMed

    Bush, Andrew M; Novack-Gottshall, Philip M

    2012-02-23

    The ecological traits and functional capabilities of marine animals have changed significantly since their origin in the late Precambrian. These changes can be analysed quantitatively using multi-dimensional parameter spaces in which the ecological lifestyles of species are represented by particular combinations of parameter values. Here, we present models that describe the filling of this multi-dimensional 'ecospace' by ecological lifestyles during metazoan diversification. These models reflect varying assumptions about the processes that drove ecological diversification; they contrast diffusive expansion with driven expansion and niche conservatism with niche partitioning. Some models highlight the importance of interactions among organisms (ecosystem engineering and predator-prey escalation) in promoting new lifestyles or eliminating existing ones. These models reflect processes that were not mutually exclusive; rigorous analyses will continue to reveal their applicability to episodes in metazoan history. PMID:21813550

  8. Composition and analysis of a model waste for a CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support System)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wydeven, T. J.

    1983-01-01

    A model waste based on a modest vegetarian diet is given, including composition and elemental analysis. Its use is recommended for evaluation of candidate waste treatment processes for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS).

  9. Assessing the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems by means of food-web models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coll, Marta; Navarro, Joan; Olson, Robert J.; Christensen, Villy

    2013-10-01

    We synthesized available information from ecological models at local and regional scales to obtain a global picture of the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems. First, static food-web models were used to analyze basic ecological parameters and indicators of squids: biomass, production, consumption, trophic level, omnivory index, predation mortality diet, and the ecological role. In addition, we developed various dynamic temporal simulations using two food-web models that included squids in their parameterization, and we investigated potential impacts of fishing pressure and environmental conditions for squid populations and, consequently, for marine food webs. Our results showed that squids occupy a large range of trophic levels in marine food webs and show a large trophic width, reflecting the versatility in their feeding behaviors and dietary habits. Models illustrated that squids are abundant organisms in marine ecosystems, and have high growth and consumption rates, but these parameters are highly variable because squids are adapted to a large variety of environmental conditions. Results also show that squids can have a large trophic impact on other elements of the food web, and top-down control from squids to their prey can be high. In addition, some squid species are important prey of apical predators and may be keystone species in marine food webs. In fact, we found strong interrelationships between neritic squids and the populations of their prey and predators in coastal and shelf areas, while the role of squids in open ocean and upwelling ecosystems appeared more constrained to a bottom-up impact on their predators. Therefore, large removals of squids will likely have large-scale effects on marine ecosystems. In addition, simulations confirm that squids are able to benefit from a general increase in fishing pressure, mainly due to predation release, and quickly respond to changes triggered by the environment. Squids may thus

  10. Simulation model for the Closed Plant Experimental Facilities of CEEF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abe, K.; Ishikawa, Y.; Kibe, S.; Nitta, K.

    The Closed Ecology Experiment Facilities (CEEF) is a testbed for CELSS investigations. CEEF including the physico-chemical material regenerative system has been constructed for the experiments of material circulation among plants, breeding animals, humans (crew of the CEEF). Because CEEF is a complex system, an appropriate schedule for the operation must be prepared in advance. The CEEF behavioral Prediction System, CPS, that will help to confirm the operation schedule, is under development. CPS will simulate CEEF's behavior with data (conditions of equipments, quantity of materials in tanks, etc.) of CEEF and an operation schedule that will be made by the operation team everyday, before the schedule will be carried out. The result of the simulation will show whether the operation schedule is appropriate or not. In order to realize CPS, models of the simulation program that is installed in CPS must mirror the real facilities of CEEF. A flexible algorithm for the first step of development of the simulation program was already investigated. The next step was development of a replicate simulation model of the material circulation system for the Closed Plant Experimental Facilities (CPEF) that is a part of CEEF. All the parts of real material circulation system for CPEF are connected together and work as a complex mechanism. In the simulation model, the system was separated into 38 units according to its operational segmentation. In order to develop each model for its corresponding unit, specifications for the model were fixed based on the specifications of the real part. These models were put into a simulation model for the system.

  11. Assessing uncertainties in a second-generation dynamic vegetation model caused by ecological scale limitations.

    PubMed

    Fisher, Rosie; McDowell, Nate; Purves, Drew; Moorcroft, Paul; Sitch, Stephen; Cox, Peter; Huntingford, Chris; Meir, Patrick; Woodward, F Ian

    2010-08-01

    *Second-generation Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have recently been developed that explicitly represent the ecological dynamics of disturbance, vertical competition for light, and succession. Here, we introduce a modified second-generation DGVM and examine how the representation of demographic processes operating at two-dimensional spatial scales not represented by these models can influence predicted community structure, and responses of ecosystems to climate change. *The key demographic processes we investigated were seed advection, seed mixing, sapling survival, competitive exclusion and plant mortality. We varied these parameters in the context of a simulated Amazon rainforest ecosystem containing seven plant functional types (PFTs) that varied along a trade-off surface between growth and the risk of starvation induced mortality. *Varying the five unconstrained parameters generated community structures ranging from monocultures to equal co-dominance of the seven PFTs. When exposed to a climate change scenario, the competing impacts of CO(2) fertilization and increasing plant mortality caused ecosystem biomass to diverge substantially between simulations, with mid-21st century biomass predictions ranging from 1.5 to 27.0 kg C m(-2). *Filtering the results using contemporary observation ranges of biomass, leaf area index (LAI), gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary productivity (NPP) did not substantially constrain the potential outcomes. We conclude that demographic processes represent a large source of uncertainty in DGVM predictions. PMID:20618912

  12. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E.

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  13. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Dobbs, Justin R.; Hencey, Brondon M.

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  14. Ecologically-focused Calibration of Hydrological Models for Environmental Flow Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, S. K.; Bledsoe, B. P.

    2015-12-01

    Hydrologic alteration resulting from watershed urbanization is a common cause of aquatic ecosystem degradation. Developing environmental flow criteria for urbanizing watersheds requires quantitative flow-ecology relationships that describe biological responses to streamflow alteration. Ideally, gaged flow data are used to develop flow-ecology relationships; however, biological monitoring sites are frequently ungaged. For these ungaged locations, hydrologic models must be used to predict streamflow characteristics through calibration and testing at gaged sites, followed by extrapolation to ungaged sites. Physically-based modeling of rainfall-runoff response has frequently utilized "best overall fit" calibration criteria, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), that do not necessarily focus on specific aspects of the flow regime relevant to biota of interest. This study investigates the utility of employing flow characteristics known a priori to influence regional biological endpoints as "ecologically-focused" calibration criteria compared to traditional, "best overall fit" criteria. For this study, 19 continuous HEC-HMS 4.0 models were created in coastal southern California and calibrated to hourly USGS streamflow gages with nearby biological monitoring sites using one "best overall fit" and three "ecologically-focused" criteria: NSE, Richards-Baker Flashiness Index (RBI), percent of time when the flow is < 1 cfs (%<1), and a Combined Calibration (RBI and %<1). Calibrated models were compared using calibration accuracy, environmental flow metric reproducibility, and the strength of flow-ecology relationships. Results indicate that "ecologically-focused" criteria can be calibrated with high accuracy and may provide stronger flow-ecology relationships than "best overall fit" criteria, especially when multiple "ecologically-focused" criteria are used in concert, despite inabilities to accurately reproduce additional types of ecological flow metrics to which the

  15. The big data-big model (BDBM) challenges in ecological research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The field of ecology has become a big-data science in the past decades due to development of new sensors used in numerous studies in the ecological community. Many sensor networks have been established to collect data. For example, satellites, such as Terra and OCO-2 among others, have collected data relevant on global carbon cycle. Thousands of field manipulative experiments have been conducted to examine feedback of terrestrial carbon cycle to global changes. Networks of observations, such as FLUXNET, have measured land processes. In particular, the implementation of the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON), which is designed to network different kinds of sensors at many locations over the nation, will generate large volumes of ecological data every day. The raw data from sensors from those networks offer an unprecedented opportunity for accelerating advances in our knowledge of ecological processes, educating teachers and students, supporting decision-making, testing ecological theory, and forecasting changes in ecosystem services. Currently, ecologists do not have the infrastructure in place to synthesize massive yet heterogeneous data into resources for decision support. It is urgent to develop an ecological forecasting system that can make the best use of multiple sources of data to assess long-term biosphere change and anticipate future states of ecosystem services at regional and continental scales. Forecasting relies on big models that describe major processes that underlie complex system dynamics. Ecological system models, despite great simplification of the real systems, are still complex in order to address real-world problems. For example, Community Land Model (CLM) incorporates thousands of processes related to energy balance, hydrology, and biogeochemistry. Integration of massive data from multiple big data sources with complex models has to tackle Big Data-Big Model (BDBM) challenges. Those challenges include interoperability of multiple

  16. Projection- vs. selection-based model reduction of complex hydro-ecological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Alsahaf, A.

    2014-12-01

    Projection-based model reduction is one of the most popular approaches used for the identification of reduced-order models (emulators). It is based on the idea of sampling from the original model various values, or snapshots, of the state variables, and then using these snapshots in a projection scheme to find a lower-dimensional subspace that captures the majority of the variation of the original model. The model is then projected onto this subspace and solved, yielding a computationally efficient emulator. Yet, this approach may unnecessarily increase the complexity of the emulator, especially when only a few state variables of the original model are relevant with respect to the output of interest. This is the case of complex hydro-ecological models, which typically account for a variety of water quality processes. On the other hand, selection-based model reduction uses the information contained in the snapshots to select the state variables of the original model that are relevant with respect to the emulator's output, thus allowing for model reduction. This provides a better trade-off between fidelity and model complexity, since the irrelevant and redundant state variables are excluded from the model reduction process. In this work we address these issues by presenting an exhaustive experimental comparison between two popular projection- and selection-based methods, namely Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) and Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo). The comparison is performed on the reduction of DYRESM-CAEDYM, a 1D hydro-ecological model used to describe the in-reservoir water quality conditions of Tono Dam, an artificial reservoir located in western Japan. Experiments on two different output variables (i.e. chlorophyll-a concentration and release water temperature) show that DEMo allows obtaining the same fidelity as POD while reducing the number of state variables in the emulator.

  17. Space station models, mockups and simulators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Miller, K. H.; Osgood, A.

    1985-01-01

    Schematic outlines for space station models, mockups, and simulators are presented. The types of Boeing models, mockups, and simulators are given along with the classes and characteristics. The use of models in the 767 program is briefly given. Computerized human factors tools are outlined. The use of computer aided design and computer aided manufacturing in the approach for the space station is advocated.

  18. Predicting Ecological Roles in the Rhizosphere Using Metabolome and Transportome Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang

    2015-01-01

    The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. However, new algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data. PMID:26332409

  19. Predicting ecological roles in the rhizosphere using metabolome and transportome modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang; Blanchard, Jeffrey L.

    2015-09-02

    The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. New algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.

  20. Survey of models/simulations at RADC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denz, M. L.

    1982-11-01

    A survey was conducted to evaluate the current state of the art and technology of model/simulation capabilities at Rome Air Development Center, Griffiss AFB, NY. This memo presents a tabulation of 28 such models/simulations. These models/simulations are being used within RADC in the development and evaluations of Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence (C3I) technology. The results of this survey are incorporated in this memo.

  1. BOTTOMLAND HARDWOODS IN THE TIFTON-VIDIALIA UPLAND OF GEORGIA: A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Ecology risk assessment provides a methodology for evaluating threats to ecosystem function associated with environmental perturbations or stressors. his report documents the development of a conceptual model for assessing the ecological risk to the water quality function (WQF) o...

  2. From the Conceptual Change Model to the Productive Ecological Koinos Model: Learning that transcends

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelpi-Rodriguez, Phaedra

    This investigation presents the analysis of a model of teaching science called the Conceptual Change Model. This model stimulates students to identify their own and alternate science concepts, and to confront these concepts with dynamic situations that will incite a conceptual change and promote their ability to master and understand the conceptual systems that serve as foundations for scientific knowledge. During a previous research made by this investigator on the Conceptual Change Model, a proposal for a new teaching model came up which she called the Productive Ecological Koinos Model. This model incorporates, among other things, the teacher's reflection and inner thoughts about the concepts taught and the learning experiences achieved in concurrence with students. Using action research, an exploration and analysis was done that focused upon how students and teachers modified their perspective of science while testing the Productive Ecological Koinos Model during the teaching-learning processes that took place in a microbiology course. The action research design allows the researcher to analyze these points from the experiential perspective, while also allowing the researcher to participate in the study. The study employed qualitative research techniques such as reflective diaries, personal profiles of participants, document analysis, audio tape recordings and transcriptions. All of these techniques are accepted within action research (Elliot, 1991). The Wolcott Model was the data analysis method used in the research. The description, analysis and interpretation carried out allowed for the examination of the various components of the Productive Ecological Koinos Model with students and teachers as to the scientific terms virus and contagion, and their experiences during the learning process within and outside the classroom. From the analysis of the Model a modification cropped up which places emphasis on conscious introspection on the learning process. This new

  3. Modeling low-flow bedrock springs providing ecological habitats with climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levison, J.; Larocque, M.; Ouellet, M. A.

    2014-07-01

    Groundwater discharge areas, including low-flow bedrock aquifer springs, are ecologically important and can be impacted by climate change. The development of and results from a groundwater modeling study simulating fractured bedrock spring flow are presented. This was conducted to produce hydrological data for an ecohydrological study of an endangered species, Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamanders (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), in southern Quebec, Canada. The groundwater modeling approach in terms of scale and complexity was strongly driven by the need to produce hydrological data for the related ecohydrological modeling. Flows at four springs at different elevations were simulated for recent past conditions (2006-2010) and for reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) periods using precipitation and temperature data from ten climate scenarios. Statistical analyses of spring flow parameters including activity periods and duration of flow were conducted. Flow rates for the four simulated springs, located at different elevations, are predicted to increase between 2% and 46% and will be active (flowing) 1-2% longer in the future. A significant change (predominantly an increase) looking at the seasonality of the number of active days occurs in the winter (2-4.9%) and spring seasons (-0.6-6.5%). Greatest flow rates were produced from springs at elevations where sub-horizontal fractures intersect the ground surface. These results suggest an intensification of the spring activity at the study site in context of climate change by 2050, which provides a positive habitat outlook for the endangered salamanders residing in the springs for the future.

  4. Theory, Modeling, and Simulation of Semiconductor Lasers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ning, Cun-Zheng; Saini, Subbash (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Semiconductor lasers play very important roles in many areas of information technology. In this talk, I will first give an overview of semiconductor laser theory. This will be followed by a description of different models and their shortcomings in modeling and simulation. Our recent efforts in constructing a fully space and time resolved simulation model will then be described. Simulation results based on our model will be presented. Finally the effort towards a self-consistent and comprehensive simulation capability for the opto-electronics integrated circuits (OEICs) will be briefly reviewed.

  5. Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology

    PubMed Central

    Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.08208.001 PMID:26473972

  6. Evaluating uncertainty in stochastic simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.D.

    1998-02-01

    This paper discusses fundamental concepts of uncertainty analysis relevant to both stochastic simulation models and deterministic models. A stochastic simulation model, called a simulation model, is a stochastic mathematical model that incorporates random numbers in the calculation of the model prediction. Queuing models are familiar simulation models in which random numbers are used for sampling interarrival and service times. Another example of simulation models is found in probabilistic risk assessments where atmospheric dispersion submodels are used to calculate movement of material. For these models, randomness comes not from the sampling of times but from the sampling of weather conditions, which are described by a frequency distribution of atmospheric variables like wind speed and direction as a function of height above ground. A common characteristic of simulation models is that single predictions, based on one interarrival time or one weather condition, for example, are not nearly as informative as the probability distribution of possible predictions induced by sampling the simulation variables like time and weather condition. The language of model analysis is often general and vague, with terms having mostly intuitive meaning. The definition and motivations for some of the commonly used terms and phrases offered in this paper lead to an analysis procedure based on prediction variance. In the following mathematical abstraction the authors present a setting for model analysis, relate practical objectives to mathematical terms, and show how two reasonable premises lead to a viable analysis strategy.

  7. Simultaneous estimation of both hydrological and ecological parameters in an ecohydrological model by assimilating microwave signal

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio

    2014-07-01

    To improve the skill of reproducing land-atmosphere interactions in weather, seasonal, and climate prediction systems, it is necessary to simulate correctly and simultaneously the surface soil moisture (SSM) and terrestrial biomass in land surface models. Despite the performance of hydrological and ecosystem models depends highly on parameter calibration, a method for parameter estimation in ungauged areas has yet to be established. We develop an autocalibration system that can simultaneously estimate both hydrological and ecological parameters by assimilating a microwave signal that is sensitive to both SSM and terrestrial biomass. This system comprises a hydrological model that has a physically based, sophisticated soil hydrology scheme, a dynamic vegetation model that can estimate vegetation growth and senescence, and a radiative transfer model that can convert land surface condition into brightness temperatures in the microwave region. By assimilating microwave signals from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System, the system simultaneously optimizes the parameters of these models. We test this approach at three in situ observation sites under different hydroclimatic conditions. Estimated SSM exhibits good agreement with ground-based in situ observed SSM, and estimated leaf area index (LAI) is also improved by the optimization, compared with satellite-observed LAI. The root-mean-square error of SSM and LAI at all sites, estimated by the model with optimized parameters, is much less than that estimated by the model with default parameters. Using microwave satellite brightness temperature data sets, this system offers the potential to calibrate parameters of both hydrological and ecosystem models globally.

  8. Ecological Niche Modelling of the Bacillus anthracis A1.a sub-lineage in Kazakhstan

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, is a globally distributed zoonotic pathogen that continues to be a veterinary and human health problem in Central Asia. We used a database of anthrax outbreak locations in Kazakhstan and a subset of genotyped isolates to model the geographic distribution and ecological associations of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The aims of the study were to test the influence of soil variables on a previous ecological niche based prediction of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan and to determine if a single sub-lineage of B. anthracis occupies a unique ecological niche. Results The addition of soil variables to the previously developed ecological niche model did not appreciably alter the limits of the predicted geographic or ecological distribution of B. anthracis in Kazakhstan. The A1.a experiment predicted the sub-lineage to be present over a larger geographic area than did the outbreak based experiment containing multiple lineages. Within the geographic area predicted to be suitable for B. anthracis by all ten best subset models, the A1.a sub-lineage was associated with a wider range of ecological tolerances than the outbreak-soil experiment. Analysis of rule types showed that logit rules predominate in the outbreak-soil experiment and range rules in the A1.a sub-lineage experiment. Random sub-setting of locality points suggests that models of B. anthracis distribution may be sensitive to sample size. Conclusions Our analysis supports careful consideration of the taxonomic resolution of data used to create ecological niche models. Further investigations into the environmental affinities of individual lineages and sub-lineages of B. anthracis will be useful in understanding the ecology of the disease at large and small scales. With model based predictions serving as approximations of disease risk, these efforts will improve the efficacy of public health interventions for anthrax prevention and control. PMID:22152056

  9. A Generic Multibody Parachute Simulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neuhaus, Jason Richard; Kenney, Patrick Sean

    2006-01-01

    Flight simulation of dynamic atmospheric vehicles with parachute systems is a complex task that is not easily modeled in many simulation frameworks. In the past, the performance of vehicles with parachutes was analyzed by simulations dedicated to parachute operations and were generally not used for any other portion of the vehicle flight trajectory. This approach required multiple simulation resources to completely analyze the performance of the vehicle. Recently, improved software engineering practices and increased computational power have allowed a single simulation to model the entire flight profile of a vehicle employing a parachute.

  10. Regional assessment of boreal forest productivity using an ecological process model and remote sensing parameter maps.

    PubMed

    Kimball, J. S.; Keyser, A. R.; Running, S. W.; Saatchi, S. S.

    2000-06-01

    An ecological process model (BIOME-BGC) was used to assess boreal forest regional net primary production (NPP) and response to short-term, year-to-year weather fluctuations based on spatially explicit, land cover and biomass maps derived by radar remote sensing, as well as soil, terrain and daily weather information. Simulations were conducted at a 30-m spatial resolution, over a 1205 km(2) portion of the BOREAS Southern Study Area of central Saskatchewan, Canada, over a 3-year period (1994-1996). Simulations of NPP for the study region were spatially and temporally complex, averaging 2.2 (+/- 0.6), 1.8 (+/- 0.5) and 1.7 (+/- 0.5) Mg C ha(-1) year(-1) for 1994, 1995 and 1996, respectively. Spatial variability of NPP was strongly controlled by the amount of aboveground biomass, particularly photosynthetic leaf area, whereas biophysical differences between broadleaf deciduous and evergreen coniferous vegetation were of secondary importance. Simulations of NPP were strongly sensitive to year-to-year variations in seasonal weather patterns, which influenced the timing of spring thaw and deciduous bud-burst. Reductions in annual NPP of approximately 17 and 22% for 1995 and 1996, respectively, were attributed to 3- and 5-week delays in spring thaw relative to 1994. Boreal forest stands with greater proportions of deciduous vegetation were more sensitive to the timing of spring thaw than evergreen coniferous stands. Similar relationships were found by comparing simulated snow depth records with 10-year records of aboveground NPP measurements obtained from biomass harvest plots within the BOREAS region. These results highlight the importance of sub-grid scale land cover complexity in controlling boreal forest regional productivity, the dynamic response of the biome to short-term interannual climate variations, and the potential implications of climate change and other large-scale disturbances. PMID:12651512