Science.gov

Sample records for ecological simulation modeling

  1. Ecological simulation model of Los Angeles Harbor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kremer, James N.; Kremer, Patricia

    1983-05-01

    A quasi-steady state numerical ecosystem model was designed to help evaluate the potential impact of various scenarios of effluent treatment and of a landfill on the distribution of phytoplankton and inorganic nutrients in Los Angeles and Long Beach harbors Formulations included (a) tidal circulation, (b) phytoplankton growth and oxygen production as a function of temperature, light, and nutrients, (c) grazing by zooplankton, (d) respiration and nutrient regeneration by the benthos, (e) biochemical oxidation of organics, and (f) nitrification Phytoplankton nitrogen, ammonium, nitrate, and oxygen were the state variables, which were simulated with diel and spatial variability for a range of seasonal conditions. Physical circulation was indicated to be a primary factor governing the distribution of state variables, and the landfill resulted in significant alterations. Simulated phytoplankton stocks approximated the upper range of reported concentrations, indicating a satisfactory prediction of bloom conditions. The model indicated that while light may usually regulate maximum phytoplankton levels, under bloom conditions nutrient limitation may also be important Most of the outer Los Angeles Harbor was affected by the effluent, as shown by comparison to the case with zero input Simulations for secondary versus primary treatment converged a short distance from the outfall in response to high BOD oxidation rates. In general, total phytoplankton crop was not greatly affected by the change from primary to secondary treatment, and predation on phytoplankton was small

  2. ERROR AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS FOR ECOLOGICAL MODELING AND SIMULATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The main objectives of this project are a) to develop a general methodology for conducting sensitivity and uncertainty analysis and building error budgets in simulation modeling over space and time; and b) to apply that methodology to the assessment of soil erosion through the RU...

  3. Computer simulation model of ecological succession in Australian subtropical rainforest. Environmental Sciences Division Publication No. 1407

    SciTech Connect

    Shugart, H.H.; Mortlock, A.T.; Hopkins, M.S.; Burgess, I.P.

    1980-04-01

    KIAMBRAM, a detailed simulation model for ecological succession in an Australian subtropical humid rainforest is documented in respect to model structure. Model parameters for 125 rainforest tree species are provided. A listing of the KIAMBRAM model and a sample of output from the model is included.

  4. A FUNCTIONAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ECOLOGICAL DYNAMICS SIMULATION (EDYS) MODEL, WITH APPLICATIONS FOR ARMY AND OTHER FEDERAL LAND MANAGERS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A key component of this capability package is the Ecological Dynamics Simulation (EDYS) model. The model provides the capability to predict responses of training lands to both military and non-military stressors and facilitates linking the cost of training and testing land mainte...

  5. Adding ecology to particle capture models: numerical simulations of capture on a moving cylinder in crossflow.

    PubMed

    Krick, Julian; Ackerman, Josef Daniel

    2015-03-01

    The particle capture efficiency, ?, of systems that remove suspended particles from ambient flow (e.g. suspension feeding, abiotic pollination) has been studied using static collectors in steady flows. Particle deposition on collectors moving due to fluid flow remains largely unknown, despite its ecological relevance. We used numerical modeling to simulate particle deposition on a 2D circular cylinder subject to flow-induced oscillation in a cross flow. Using parameter values relevant to wind pollination and other natural biological systems, we examined the influence of the direction, amplitude and frequency of the oscillation, the Stokes number (Stk=0.01-5, characterizing particle behavior), as well as the Reynolds number (Re=662 and 3309, characterizing flow regime) in steady and unsteady flow, on ?. The numerical model was validated with empirical results for parts of the parameter space. Particle capture occurred via "inertial impaction", "direct interception" and "leeward deposition", as well as via a new mechanism, "collector chasing" for moving collectors. The ? of an oscillating cylinder varied significantly relative to a static cylinder, depending on the parameters used, and on the magnitude of a numerical error that caused loss of particles. This variance of ? was due to a change in relative momentum between the particle and the moving collector, which depends on Re, Stk and the oscillation parameters. Collector oscillation transverse to oncoming flow direction strongly increased ?, whereas collector motion parallel to flow had little effect on capture efficiency. The oscillation also changed leeward capture significantly in some cases. For most conditions, however, leeward deposition was small. Results suggest that collector motion could have significant influence on the particle capture efficiency of natural systems, which indicates the need to incorporate these ecologically more relevant findings into current models. Empirical studies, however, are still necessary to validate these results and provide reliable data. PMID:25496731

  6. Sensitivity of an ecological model to soil moisture simulations from two different hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ren, D.; Leslie, L. M.; Karoly, D. J.

    2008-08-01

    Although advanced land surface schemes have been developed in the past decade, many biosphere models still use the simple bucket model, partly due to its efficiency when it is coupled with an CGCM model. In this paper, we use a sophisticated land surface model, the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS), including an explicit vegetation canopy and its physiological control on evapotranspiration and multiple, interactive subsurface soil layers. It is found that this model has potential for improving the carbon cycling description of a widely used biosphere model, the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford approach (CASA), especially for multiple seasonal integrations. Verifying with observations from Oklahoma Atmospheric Surface-layer Instrumentation System (OASIS) stations, we show that a bucket model as implemented in the CASA produces good simulations of the seasonal cycle of soil moisture content, but only for the upper 15-cm soil depth, no matter how it is initialized. This is partly due to its inability to include vegetation characteristics other than a fixed wilting point. Although only approximate, the soil depth to which CASA simulates storage of below-ground carbon is assumed to be about 30 cm depth, significantly deeper than the 15 cm depth. The bucket model cannot utilize the soil profile measurements that have recently been made widely available. A major finding of this study is that carbon fluxes are sensitive to the soil moisture simulations, especially the soil water content of the upper 30 cm. The SHEELS exhibits potential for simulating soil moisture, and hence the total soil water amount, accurately at every level. For the Net Primary Production (NPP) parameter, the differences between two hydrological schemes occur primarily during the growing seasons, when the land surface processes are more important for climate. However, soil microbial respiration is found to be sensitive all year round to soil moisture simulations at our 7 selected Oklahoma Mesonet stations. These suggest that for future implementing of interactive representation of soil carbon in CGCMs, the accompanying hydrological scheme should not be over-simplified.

  7. The use of typed lambda calculus for comprehension and construction of simulation models in the domain of ecology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Uschold, Michael

    1992-01-01

    We are concerned with two important issues in simulation modelling: model comprehension and model construction. Model comprehension is limited because many important choices taken during the modelling process are not documented. This makes it difficult for models to be modified or used by others. A key factor hindering model construction is the vast modelling search space which must be navigated. This is exacerbated by the fact that many modellers are unfamiliar with the terms and concepts catered to by current tools. The root of both problems is the lack of facilities for representing or reasoning about domain concepts in current simulation technology. The basis for our achievements in both of these areas is the development of a language with two distinct levels; one for representing domain information, and the other for representing the simulation model. Of equal importance, is the fact that we make formal connections between these two levels. The domain we are concerned with is ecological modelling. This language, called Elklogic, is based on the typed lambda calculus. Important features include a rich type structure, the use of various higher order functions, and semantics. This enables complex expressions to be constructed from relatively few primitives. The meaning of each expression can be determined in terms of the domain, the simulation model, or the relationship between the two. We describe a novel representation for sets and substructure, and a variety of other general concepts that are especially useful in the ecological domain. We use the type structure in a novel way: for controlling the modelling search space, rather than a proof search space. We facilitate model comprehension by representing modelling decisions that are embodied in the simulation model. We represent the simulation model separately from, but in terms of a domain mode. The explicit links between the two models constitute the modelling decisions. The semantics of Elklogic enables English text to be generated to explain the simulation model in domain terms.

  8. A Simulated Stream Ecology Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zampella, Robert A.

    1979-01-01

    Describes a simulated field experience to study stream ecology in the classroom. Secondary students determine the composition of the stream community, describe the distribution of the benthic invertebrates, and design a food web. (Author/MA)

  9. Modelling the Geomorphological and Ecological Dynamics of River Corridors: Developing a Simulation Tool for River Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasington, J.; Richards, K.; Bithell, M.

    2002-12-01

    Interest in the integrated restoration of managed river corridors has arisen in response to falling levels of riparian and floodplain biodiversity due to flood control works including channalization and flow regulation by headwater impoundments. This decline is in part, a direct response to the impact of engineering works on the geomorphological dynamics of rivers and in particular, upon rates of channel migration. Channel instability, through the processes of bank erosion, avulsion and cutoff, and within and overbank sedimentation, continuously renews the floodplain creating virgin territory for plant colonization. The varying age of alluvial surfaces, in combination with differences in topography and sediment calibre influence plant succession pathways and gives rise to a mosaic of floodplain plant communities. This geomorphological influence underpins the `intermediate disturbance hypothesis' which suggests a non-linear relationship between floodplain turnover rates and biodiversity, which is low in both highly stable and unstable rivers regimes. In the former case, diversity is limited as stable regimes promote succession towards relatively uniform stands of floodplain forest while the in the later case, extreme instability results in the sole dominance of early coloniser species. By contrast, diversity is maximized for intermediate levels of disturbance, which result in a range of habitats at varying positions along successional pathways. While conceptually satisfying, calibration and validation of this perceptual model is confounded by the differing local conditions and environmental history of individual rivers, which complicates simple empirical inter-comparisons. Prescription of the appropriate levels of disturbance necessary to optimise habitat and biological diversity therefore remains unclear and difficult to translate into practical frameworks for river management. This paper presents an alternative approach to investigate this interdependence through the development of a numerical model which captures the primary geomorphological and ecological dynamics of river systems at appropriate levels of complexity tuned to reach and decadal space and time scales. Here a prototype model is presented for braided rivers, in which a simplified flow routing procedure is used to drive predictions of sediment transport and sorting based on a cellular spatial discretization, a force-balance entrainment model and a step-length advection and grain sorting procedure. This sub-model provides the topographic and sedimentological boundary conditions for a stochastic plant succession model which simulates colonization and community development on the evolving braidplain. The model is parameterised and validated against distributed datasets from the braided River Feshie, Scotland. A Monte-Carlo based sensitivity analysis is used to explore the one-way interaction between channel migration and habitat development, with an emphasis placed on the structure of the evolving timeseries of reach-scale biodiversity indicators. Importantly however, the framework also permits full coupling of this interrelationship by modelling the influence of vegetation on bank stability so that feedback can occur to affect channel migration and floodplain turnover. Such feedback is critical in understanding the autogenic switching between channel planform types (meandering and braiding) and a new computational framework for simulating this behaviour is presented.

  10. Linking Bayesian and Agent-Based Models to Simulate Complex Social-Ecological Systems in the Sonoran Desert

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pope, A.; Gimblett, R.

    2013-12-01

    Interdependencies of ecologic, hydrologic, and social systems challenge traditional approaches to natural resource management in semi-arid regions. As a complex social-ecological system, water demands in the Sonoran Desert from agricultural and urban users often conflicts with water needs for its ecologically-significant riparian corridors. To explore this system, we developed an agent-based model to simulate complex feedbacks between human decisions and environmental conditions. Cognitive mapping in conjunction with stakeholder participation produced a Bayesian model of conditional probabilities of local human decision-making processes resulting to changes in water demand. Probabilities created in the Bayesian model were incorporated into the agent-based model, so that each agent had a unique probability to make a positive decision based on its perceived environment at each point in time and space. By using a Bayesian approach, uncertainty in the human decision-making process could be incorporated. The spatially-explicit agent-based model simulated changes in depth-to-groundwater by well pumping based on an agent's water demand. Depth-to-groundwater was then used as an indicator of unique vegetation guilds within the riparian corridor. Each vegetation guild provides varying levels of ecosystem services, the changes of which, along with changes in depth-to-groundwater, feedback to influence agent behavior. Using this modeling approach allowed us to examine resilience of semi-arid riparian corridors and agent behavior under various scenarios. The insight provided by the model contributes to understanding how specific interventions may alter the complex social-ecological system in the future.

  11. Comparison of simulation modeling and satellite techniques for monitoring ecological processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Box, Elgene O.

    1988-01-01

    In 1985 improvements were made in the world climatic data base for modeling and predictive mapping; in individual process models and the overall carbon-balance models; and in the interface software for mapping the simulation results. Statistical analysis of the data base was begun. In 1986 mapping was shifted to NASA-Goddard. The initial approach involving pattern comparisons was modified to a more statistical approach. A major accomplishment was the expansion and improvement of a global data base of measurements of biomass and primary production, to complement the simulation data. The main accomplishments during 1987 included: production of a master tape with all environmental and satellite data and model results for the 1600 sites; development of a complete mapping system used for the initial color maps comparing annual and monthly patterns of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), actual evapotranspiration, net primary productivity, gross primary productivity, and net ecosystem production; collection of more biosphere measurements for eventual improvement of the biological models; and development of some initial monthly models for primary productivity, based on satellite data.

  12. Human behavior incorporation into ecological computer simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Courtland L.; Stander, Jeffrey M.; Tyler, Albert V.

    1982-05-01

    The responses of ecological computer simulations are significantly changed by the inclusion of human behavior patterns. Two computer simulations illustrate this principle for internal and external decision making. The Northwest Educational Trawler Simulation (NETS) models the interaction between fish populations, fishing effort, markets, and a fishing community. This simulation includes an internal decision making submodel for changing fishing effort based on observed behaviors of fishermen. NOGERO, a simulation of a mythical coastal fishing culture, uses external decision making where simulation users act as stewards. The patterns of model response vary depending on the attitudes and goals of decision makers. This shows how human behavior interacts with ecosystem dynamics to produce a variety of results.

  13. A simulation model of African Anopheles ecology and population dynamics for the analysis of malaria transmission

    PubMed Central

    Depinay, Jean-Marc O; Mbogo, Charles M; Killeen, Gerry; Knols, Bart; Beier, John; Carlson, John; Dushoff, Jonathan; Billingsley, Peter; Mwambi, Henry; Githure, John; Toure, Abdoulaye M; Ellis McKenzie, F

    2004-01-01

    Background Malaria is one of the oldest and deadliest infectious diseases in humans. Many mathematical models of malaria have been developed during the past century, and applied to potential interventions. However, malaria remains uncontrolled and is increasing in many areas, as are vector and parasite resistance to insecticides and drugs. Methods This study presents a simulation model of African malaria vectors. This individual-based model incorporates current knowledge of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics and their relations to the environment. One of its main strengths is that it is based on both biological and environmental variables. Results The model made it possible to structure existing knowledge, assembled in a comprehensive review of the literature, and also pointed out important aspects of basic Anopheles biology about which knowledge is lacking. One simulation showed several patterns similar to those seen in the field, and made it possible to examine different analyses and hypotheses for these patterns; sensitivity analyses on temperature, moisture, predation and preliminary investigations of nutrient competition were also conducted. Conclusions Although based on some mathematical formulae and parameters, this new tool has been developed in order to be as explicit as possible, transparent in use, close to reality and amenable to direct use by field workers. It allows a better understanding of the mechanisms underlying Anopheles population dynamics in general and also a better understanding of the dynamics in specific local geographic environments. It points out many important areas for new investigations that will be critical to effective, efficient, sustainable interventions. PMID:15285781

  14. Simulated ecology-driven sympatric speciation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.; Moss de Oliveira, S.; de Medeiros, G. A.

    2001-08-01

    We introduce a multilocus genetically acquired phenotype, submitted to mutations and with selective value, in an age-structured model for biological aging. This phenotype describes a single-trait effect of the environment on an individual, and we study the resulting distribution of this trait among the population. In particular, our simulations show that the appearance of a double phenotypic attractor in the ecology induces the emergence of a stable polymorphism, as observed in the Galapagos finches. In the presence of this polymorphism, the simulations generate short-term speciation, when mating preferences are also allowed to suffer mutations and acquire selective value.

  15. Ecological model of extinctions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abramson, Guillermo

    1997-01-01

    We present numerical results based on a simplified ecological system in evolution, showing features of extinction similar to that claimed for the biosystem on Earth. In the model each species consists of a population in interaction with the others, that reproduces and evolves in time. Each species is simultaneously a predator and a prey in a food chain. Mutations that change the interactions are supposed to occur randomly at a low rate. Extinctions of populations result naturally from the predator-prey dynamics. The model is not pinned in a fitness variable, and natural selection arises from the dynamics.

  16. Simulating fire-induced ecological succession with the dynamically coupled fire-vegetation model, ED-SPIFTIRE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Spessa, A.; Fisher, R.

    2009-04-01

    The simulation of fire-vegetation feedbacks is crucial for determining fire-induced changes to ecosystem structure and function, and emissions of trace gases and aerosols under future climate change. A new global fire model SPITFIRE (SPread and InTensity of FIRE) has been designed to overcome many of the limitations in existing fire models set within DGVM frameworks (Thonicke et al. 2008). SPITFIRE has been applied in coupled mode globally (Thonicke et al. 2008) and northern Australia (Spessa et al. unpubl.) as part of the LPJ DGVM. It has also been driven with MODIS burnt area data applied to sub-Saharan Africa (Lehsten et al. 2008) as part of the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model (Smith et al. 2001). Recently, Spessa & Fisher (unpubl.) completed the coupling of SPIFTIRE to the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model (Moorecroft et al. 2001), which has been globalised by Dr R. Fisher as part of the development of the new land surface scheme JULES (Joint UK Environment Simulator) within the QUEST Earth System Model (http://www.quest-esm.ac.uk/). In contrast to the LPJ DGVM, ED is a ‘size and age structured' approximation of an individual based gap model. The major innovation of the ED-SPITFIRE model compared with LPJ-SPITFIRE is the categorisation of each climatic grid cell into a series of non-spatially contiguous patches which are defined by a common ‘age since last disturbance'. In theory, the age-class structure of ED facilitates ecologically realistic processes of succession and re-growth to be represented. By contrast, LPJ DGVM adopts an ‘area-based approach' that implicitly averages individual and patch differences across a wider area and across ‘populations' of PFTs. This presentation provides an overview of SPITFIRE, and provides preliminary results from ED-SPITFIRE applied to northern Australian savanna ecosystems which, due to spatio-temporal variation in fire disturbance, comprise a patchwork of grasses and trees at different stages of post-fire succession. Comparisons with similar simulations undertaken with LPJ-SPITFIRE are also presented.

  17. COFLO: A Computer Aid for Teaching Ecological Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le vow, Roy B.

    A computer-assisted course was designed to provide students with an understanding of modeling and simulation techniques in quantitiative ecology. It deals with continuous systems and has two segments. One develops mathematical and computer tools, beginning with abstract systems and their relation to physical systems. Modeling principles are next…

  18. Ecological reality and model validation

    SciTech Connect

    Cale, Jr, W. G.; Shugart, H. H.

    1980-01-01

    Definitions of model realism and model validation are developed. Ecological and mathematical arguments are then presented to show that model equations which explicitly treat ecosystem processes can be systematically improved such that greater realism is attained and the condition of validity is approached. Several examples are presented.

  19. QUALITATIVE ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Students construct qualitative models of an ecosystem and use the models to evaluate the direct and indirect effects that may result from perturbations to the ecosystem. Qualitative modeling is described for use in two procedures, each with different educational goals and student backgrounds in min...

  20. Market Ecology, Pareto Wealth Distribution and Leptokurtic Returns in Microscopic Simulation of the LLS Stock Market Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solomon, Sorin; Levy, Moshe

    2001-06-01

    The LLS stock market model (see Levy Levy and Solomon Academic Press 2000 "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets; From Investor Behavior to Market Phenomena" for a review) is a model of heterogeneous quasi-rational investors operating in a complex environment about which they have incomplete information. We review the main features of this model and several of its extensions. We study the effects of investor heterogeneity and show that predation, competition, or symbiosis may occur between different investor populations. The dynamics of the LLS model lead to the empirically observed Pareto wealth distribution. Many properties observed in actual markets appear as natural consequences of the LLS dynamics: - truncated Levy distribution of short-term returns, - excess volatility, - a return autocorrelation "U-shape" pattern, and - a positive correlation between volume and absolute returns.

  1. Long-term impacts of selective logging on two Amazonian tree species with contrasting ecological and reproductive characteristics: inferences from Eco-gene model simulations.

    PubMed

    Vinson, C C; Kanashiro, M; Sebbenn, A M; Williams, T C R; Harris, S A; Boshier, D H

    2015-08-01

    The impact of logging and subsequent recovery after logging is predicted to vary depending on specific life history traits of the logged species. The Eco-gene simulation model was used to evaluate the long-term impacts of selective logging over 300 years on two contrasting Brazilian Amazon tree species, Dipteryx odorata and Jacaranda copaia. D. odorata (Leguminosae), a slow growing climax tree, occurs at very low densities, whereas J. copaia (Bignoniaceae) is a fast growing pioneer tree that occurs at high densities. Microsatellite multilocus genotypes of the pre-logging populations were used as data inputs for the Eco-gene model and post-logging genetic data was used to verify the output from the simulations. Overall, under current Brazilian forest management regulations, there were neither short nor long-term impacts on J. copaia. By contrast, D. odorata cannot be sustainably logged under current regulations, a sustainable scenario was achieved by increasing the minimum cutting diameter at breast height from 50 to 100 cm over 30-year logging cycles. Genetic parameters were only slightly affected by selective logging, with reductions in the numbers of alleles and single genotypes. In the short term, the loss of alleles seen in J. copaia simulations was the same as in real data, whereas fewer alleles were lost in D. odorata simulations than in the field. The different impacts and periods of recovery for each species support the idea that ecological and genetic information are essential at species, ecological guild or reproductive group levels to help derive sustainable management scenarios for tropical forests. PMID:24424164

  2. Cosmic emergy based ecological systems modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, H.; Chen, G. Q.; Ji, X.

    2010-09-01

    Ecological systems modelling based on the unified biophysical measure of cosmic emergy in terms of embodied cosmic exergy is illustrated in this paper with ecological accounting, simulation and scenario analysis, by a case study for the regional socio-economic ecosystem associated with the municipality of Beijing. An urbanized regional ecosystem model with eight subsystems of natural support, agriculture, urban production, population, finance, land area, potential environmental impact, and culture is representatively presented in exergy circuit language with 12 state variables governing by corresponding ecodynamic equations, and 60 flows and auxiliary variables. To characterize the regional socio-economy as an ecosystem, a series of ecological indicators based on cosmic emergy are devised. For a systematic ecological account, cosmic exergy transformities are provided for various dimensions including climate flows, natural resources, industrial products, cultural products, population with educational hierarchy, and environmental emissions. For the urban ecosystem of Beijing in the period from 1990 to 2005, ecological accounting is carried out and characterized in full details. Taking 2000 as the starting point, systems modelling is realized to predict the urban evolution in a one hundred time horizon. For systems regulation, scenario analyses with essential policy-making implications are made to illustrate the long term systems effects of the expected water diversion and rise in energy price.

  3. Ecologic simulation of warm water aquaculture ponds

    SciTech Connect

    Piedrahitu, R.H.; Brune, D.E.; Orlob, G.T.; Tchobanoglous, G.

    1983-06-01

    A generalized ecologic model of a fertilized warm-water aquaculture pond is under development. The model is intended to represent the pond ecosystem and its response to external stimuli. The major physical, chemical and biological processes and parameters are included in the model. A total of 19 state variables are included in the model (dissolved oxygen, alkalinity, pH, ammonia, phytoplankton, etc.). The model is formulated as a system of mass balance equations. The equations include stimulatory and inhibitory effects of environmental parameters on processes taking place in the pond. The equations may be solved for the entire growth period and diurnal as well as seasonal fluctuations may be identified. The ultimate objective of the model is to predict the fish biomass that can be produced in a pond under a given set of environmental conditions.

  4. Spatial uncertainty and ecological models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, Yetta; King, Anthony Wayne

    2004-07-01

    Applied ecological models that are used to understand and manage natural systems often rely on spatial data as input. Spatial uncertainty in these data can propagate into model predictions. Uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, error analysis, error budget analysis, spatial decision analysis, and hypothesis testing using neutral models are all techniques designed to explore the relationship between variation in model inputs and variation in model predictions. Although similar methods can be used to answer them, these approaches address different questions. These approaches differ in (a) whether the focus is forward or backward (forward to evaluate the magnitude of variation in model predictions propagated or backward to rank input parameters by their influence); (b) whether the question involves model robustness to large variations in spatial pattern or to small deviations from a reference map; and (c) whether processes that generate input uncertainty (for example, cartographic error) are of interest. In this commentary, we propose a taxonomy of approaches, all of which clarify the relationship between spatial uncertainty and the predictions of ecological models. We describe existing techniques and indicate a few areas where research is needed.

  5. Ecological modeling for applied science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melton, Forrest; Lobitz, Brad; Turner, Woody; Sheffner, Edwin; Haynes, John

    Ecological modeling is becoming an increasingly important tool for uniting biological observations with remote sensing and ground-based data networks to develop predictive tools for resource management and human health.The availability of over three petabytes of data from the NASA Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) alone provides an unprecedented opportunity to develop Earth science applications for decision support. In combination with data networks such as the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Climate Data Center, the nonprofit NatureServe's network of biological inventories, the National Environmental Public Health Tracking Network of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and many others, there is a vast wealth of Earth observation data on parameters as diverse as land cover, sea surface temperature, precipitation, species distribution, and disease occurrence.

  6. Simulated coevolution in a mutating ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sá Martins, J. S.

    2000-03-01

    The bit-string Penna model is used to simulate the competition between an asexual parthenogenetic and a sexual population sharing the same environment. A newborn of either population can mutate and become a part of the other with some probability. In a stable environment the sexual population soon dies out. When an infestation by rapidly mutating genetically coupled parasites is introduced, however, sexual reproduction prevails, as predicted by the so-called Red Queen hypothesis for the evolution of sex.

  7. Carbon dioxide emissions from Tucuruí reservoir (Amazon biome): New findings based on three-dimensional ecological model simulations.

    PubMed

    Curtarelli, Marcelo Pedroso; Ogashawara, Igor; de Araújo, Carlos Alberto Sampaio; Lorenzzetti, João Antônio; Leão, Joaquim Antônio Dionísio; Alcântara, Enner; Stech, José Luiz

    2016-05-01

    We used a three-dimensional model to assess the dynamics of diffusive carbon dioxide flux (FCO2) from a hydroelectric reservoir located at Amazon rainforest. Our results showed that for the studied periods (2013 summer/wet and winter/dry seasons) the surface averaged FCO2 presented similar behaviors, with regular emissions peaks. The mean daily surface averaged FCO2 showed no significant difference between the seasons (p>0.01), with values around -1338mgCm-2day-1 (summer/wet) and -1395mgCm-2day-1 (winter/dry). At diel scale, the FCO2 was large during the night and morning and low during the afternoon in both seasons. Regarding its spatial distribution, the FCO2 showed to be more heterogeneous during the summer/wet than during the winter/dry season. The highest FCO2 were observed at transition zone (-300mgCm-2h-1) during summer and at littoral zone (-55mgCm-2h-1) during the winter. The total CO2 emitted by the reservoir along 2013year was estimated to be 1.1TgCyear-1. By extrapolating our results we found that the total carbon emitted by all Amazonian reservoirs can be around 7TgCyear-1, which is 22% lower than the previous published estimate. This significant difference should not be neglected in the carbon inventories since the carbon emission is a key factor when comparing the environmental impacts of different sources of electricity generation and can influences decision makers in the selection of the more appropriate source of electricity and, in case of hydroelectricity, the geographical position of the reservoirs. PMID:26914722

  8. DYNAMIC LANDSCAPES, STABILITY AND ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The image of a ball rolling along a series of hills and valleys is an effective heuristic by which to communicate stability concepts in ecology. However, the dynamics of this landscape model have little to do with ecological systems. Other landscape representations, however, are ...

  9. Ecological Impacts of the Cerro Grande Fire: Predicting Elk Movement and Distribution Patterns in Response to Vegetative Recovery through Simulation Modeling October 2005

    SciTech Connect

    S.P. Rupp

    2005-10-01

    In May 2000, the Cerro Grande Fire burned approximately 17,200 ha in north-central New Mexico as the result of an escaped prescribed burn initiated by Bandelier National Monument. The interaction of large-scale fires, vegetation, and elk is an important management issue, but few studies have addressed the ecological implications of vegetative succession and landscape heterogeneity on ungulate populations following large-scale disturbance events. Primary objectives of this research were to identify elk movement pathways on local and landscape scales, to determine environmental factors that influence elk movement, and to evaluate movement and distribution patterns in relation to spatial and temporal aspects of the Cerro Grande Fire. Data collection and assimilation reflect the collaborative efforts of National Park Service, U.S. Forest Service, and Department of Energy (Los Alamos National Laboratory) personnel. Geographic positioning system (GPS) collars were used to track 54 elk over a period of 3+ years and locational data were incorporated into a multi-layered geographic information system (GIS) for analysis. Preliminary tests of GPS collar accuracy indicated a strong effect of 2D fixes on position acquisition rates (PARs) depending on time of day and season of year. Slope, aspect, elevation, and land cover type affected dilution of precision (DOP) values for both 2D and 3D fixes, although significant relationships varied from positive to negative making it difficult to delineate the mechanism behind significant responses. Two-dimensional fixes accounted for 34% of all successfully acquired locations and may affect results in which those data were used. Overall position acquisition rate was 93.3% and mean DOP values were consistently in the range of 4.0 to 6.0 leading to the conclusion collar accuracy was acceptable for modeling purposes. SAVANNA, a spatially explicit, process-oriented ecosystem model, was used to simulate successional dynamics. Inputs to the SAVANNA included a land cover map, long-term weather data, soil maps, and a digital elevation model. Parameterization and calibration were conducted using field plots. Model predictions of herbaceous biomass production and weather were consistent with available data and spatial interpolations of snow were considered reasonable for this study. Dynamic outputs generated by SAVANNA were integrated with static variables, movement rules, and parameters developed for the individual-based model through the application of a habitat suitability index. Model validation indicated reasonable model fit when compared to an independent test set. The finished model was applied to 2 realistic management scenarios for the Jemez Mountains and management implications were discussed. Ongoing validation of the individual-based model presented in this dissertation provides an adaptive management tool that integrates interdisciplinary experience and scientific information, which allows users to make predictions about the impact of alternative management policies.

  10. WASP TRANSPORT MODELING AND WASP ECOLOGICAL MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  11. Toward an Ecological Evaluation Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Jackson; Patterson, Jerry L.

    1979-01-01

    The authors suggest that the aura of authority traditionally placed on educational research and evaluation has been based on an outdated understanding of the scientific enterprise. They outline an alternative view of science which is more ecological and provides more scope and power for evaluating educational programs. They propose a new framework…

  12. Spatial Uncertainty Analysis of Ecological Models

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, H.I.; Ashwood, T.L.; Jackson, B.L.; King, A.W.

    2000-09-02

    The authors evaluated the sensitivity of a habitat model and a source-sink population model to spatial uncertainty in landscapes with different statistical properties and for hypothetical species with different habitat requirements. Sequential indicator simulation generated alternative landscapes from a source map. Their results showed that spatial uncertainty was highest for landscapes in which suitable habitat was rare and spatially uncorrelated. Although, they were able to exert some control over the degree of spatial uncertainty by varying the sampling density drawn from the source map, intrinsic spatial properties (i.e., average frequency and degree of spatial autocorrelation) played a dominant role in determining variation among realized maps. To evaluate the ecological significance of landscape variation, they compared the variation in predictions from a simple habitat model to variation among landscapes for three species types. Spatial uncertainty in predictions of the amount of source habitat depended on both the spatial life history characteristics of the species and the statistical attributes of the synthetic landscapes. Species differences were greatest when the landscape contained a high proportion of suitable habitat. The predicted amount of source habitat was greater for edge-dependent (interior) species in landscapes with spatially uncorrelated(correlated) suitable habitat. A source-sink model demonstrated that, although variation among landscapes resulted in relatively little variation in overall population growth rate, this spatial uncertainty was sufficient in some situations, to produce qualitatively different predictions about population viability (i.e., population decline vs. increase).

  13. An Interdisciplinary Model for Teaching Evolutionary Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coletta, John

    1992-01-01

    Describes a general systems evolutionary model and demonstrates how a previously established ecological model is a function of its past development based on the evolution of the rock, nutrient, and water cycles. Discusses the applications of the model in environmental education. (MDH)

  14. Individual-based models in ecology after four decades.

    PubMed

    DeAngelis, Donald L; Grimm, Volker

    2014-01-01

    Individual-based models simulate populations and communities by following individuals and their properties. They have been used in ecology for more than four decades, with their use and ubiquity in ecology growing rapidly in the last two decades. Individual-based models have been used for many applied or "pragmatic" issues, such as informing the protection and management of particular populations in specific locations, but their use in addressing theoretical questions has also grown rapidly, recently helping us to understand how the sets of traits of individual organisms influence the assembly of communities and food webs. Individual-based models will play an increasingly important role in questions posed by complex ecological systems. PMID:24991416

  15. Individual-based models in ecology after four decades

    PubMed Central

    Grimm, Volker

    2014-01-01

    Individual-based models simulate populations and communities by following individuals and their properties. They have been used in ecology for more than four decades, with their use and ubiquity in ecology growing rapidly in the last two decades. Individual-based models have been used for many applied or “pragmatic” issues, such as informing the protection and management of particular populations in specific locations, but their use in addressing theoretical questions has also grown rapidly, recently helping us to understand how the sets of traits of individual organisms influence the assembly of communities and food webs. Individual-based models will play an increasingly important role in questions posed by complex ecological systems. PMID:24991416

  16. Simulating the effects of fire and climate change on northern Rocky Mountain landscapes using the ecological process model FIRE-BGC

    SciTech Connect

    Keane, R.E.; Ryan, K.; Running, S.W.

    1995-12-31

    A mechanistic successional model, FIRE-BGC (a FIRE BioGeoChemical succession model), has been developed to investigate the role of fire and climate on long-term landscape dynamics in northern Rocky Mountain coniferous forests. This FIRE-BGC application explicitly simulates fire behavior and effects on landscape characteristics. Predictions of evapotranspiration are contrasted with and without fire over 200 years of simulation for the McDonald Drainage, Glacier National Park under current climate conditions are provided as an example of the potential of FIRE-BGC.

  17. Systemic, Ecological Model for Rehabilitation Counseling.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hershenson, David B.

    1998-01-01

    Presents a reformulation of Hershenson's theoretical model for rehabilitation counseling in systemic and ecological terms. This macrosystem is organized by precipitating event of disability and is composed of four systems: consumer, functional, provider, and contextual. Discusses the use of the model for selecting rehabilitation interventions…

  18. Models of Financial Market Information Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Challet, Damien

    I discuss a new simple framework that allows a more realistic modelling of speculation. The resulting model features expliciting position holding, contagion between predictability patterns, allows for an explicit measure of market inefficiency and substantiates the use of the minority game to study information ecology in financial markets.

  19. Introducing data-model assimilation to students of ecology.

    PubMed

    Hobbs, N Thompson; Ogle, Kiona

    2011-07-01

    Quantitative training for students of ecology has traditionally emphasized two sets of topics: mathematical modeling and statistical analysis. Until recently, these topics were taught separately, modeling courses emphasizing mathematical techniques for symbolic analysis and statistics courses emphasizing procedures for analyzing data. We advocate the merger of these traditions in ecological education by outlining a curriculum for an introductory course in data-model assimilation. This course replaces the procedural emphasis of traditional introductory material in statistics with an emphasis on principles needed to develop hierarchical models of ecological systems, fusing models of data with models of ecological processes. We sketch nine elements of such a course: (1) models as routes to insight, (2) uncertainty, (3) basic probability theory, (4) hierarchical models, (5) data simulation, (6) likelihood and Bayes, (7) computational methods, (8) research design, and (9) problem solving. The outcome of teaching these combined elements can be the fundamental understanding and quantitative confidence needed by students to create revealing analyses for a broad array of research problems. PMID:21830700

  20. Simulating Ecological Complexity Using the Example of Pesticides in Ecosystems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muir, Patricia S.; McCune, Bruce

    1993-01-01

    Describes a simulation exercise developed for an introductory biology course for nonmajors. The simulation focuses on the control of western spruce budworms in forests of the western United States. A nonlinear, multivariate simulation model is used. (PR)

  1. Social Ecological Model Analysis for ICT Integration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zagami, Jason

    2013-01-01

    ICT integration of teacher preparation programmes was undertaken by the Australian Teaching Teachers for the Future (TTF) project in all 39 Australian teacher education institutions and highlighted the need for guidelines to inform systemic ICT integration approaches. A Social Ecological Model (SEM) was used to positively inform integration…

  2. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE INFORMATION NEEDS FOR ECOLOGICAL EFFECTS MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Atmospheric scientists engaged in climate change research require a basic understanding of how ecological effects models incorporate climate. This report provides an overview of existing ecological models that might be used to model climate change effects on vegetation. ome agric...

  3. Modelling macroevolutionary patterns: An ecological perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solé, R. V.

    Complex ecosystems display well-defined macroscopic regularities suggesting that some generic dynamical rules operate at the ecosystem level where the relevance of the single-species features is rather weak. Most evolutionary theory deals with genes/species as the units of selection operating on populations. However, the role of ecological networks and external perturbations seems to be at least as important as microevolutionary events based on natural selection operating at the smalle st levels. Here we review some of the recent theoretical approximations to ecosystem evolution based on network dynamics. It is suggested that the evolutionary dynamics of ecological networks underlie fundamental laws of ecology-level dynamics which naturally decouple micro from macroevolutionary dynamics. Using simple models of macroevolution, most of the available statistical information obtained from the fossil record is remarkably well reproduced and explained within a new theoretical framework.

  4. A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON) for synthesising high-frequency sensor data for validation of deterministic ecological models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    David, Hamilton P; Carey, Cayelan C; Arvola, Lauri; Arzberger, Peter; Brewer, Carol A.; Cole, Jon J; Gaiser, Evelyn; Hanson, Paul C.; Ibelings, Bas W; Jennings, Eleanor; Kratz, Tim K; Lin, Fang-Pang; McBride, Christopher G; de Motta Marques, David; Muraoka, Kohji; Nishri, Ami; Qin, Boqiang; Read, Jordan S.; Rose, Kevin C.; Ryder, Elizabeth; Weathers, Kathleen C.; Zhu, Guangwei; Trolle, Dennis; Brookes, Justin D

    2014-01-01

    A Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network (GLEON; www.gleon.org) has formed to provide a coordinated response to the need for scientific understanding of lake processes, utilising technological advances available from autonomous sensors. The organisation embraces a grassroots approach to engage researchers from varying disciplines, sites spanning geographic and ecological gradients, and novel sensor and cyberinfrastructure to synthesise high-frequency lake data at scales ranging from local to global. The high-frequency data provide a platform to rigorously validate process- based ecological models because model simulation time steps are better aligned with sensor measurements than with lower-frequency, manual samples. Two case studies from Trout Bog, Wisconsin, USA, and Lake Rotoehu, North Island, New Zealand, are presented to demonstrate that in the past, ecological model outputs (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll) have been relatively poorly validated based on a limited number of directly comparable measurements, both in time and space. The case studies demonstrate some of the difficulties of mapping sensor measurements directly to model state variable outputs as well as the opportunities to use deviations between sensor measurements and model simulations to better inform process understanding. Well-validated ecological models provide a mechanism to extrapolate high-frequency sensor data in space and time, thereby potentially creating a fully 3-dimensional simulation of key variables of interest.

  5. Simulating ecological changes caused by marine energy devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuchert, Pia; Elsaesser, Bjoern; Pritchard, Daniel; Kregting, Louise

    2015-04-01

    Marine renewable energy from wave and tidal technology has the potential to contribute significantly globally to energy security for future generations. However common to both tidal and wave energy extraction systems is concern regarding the potential environmental consequences of the deployment of the technology as environmental and ecological effects are so far poorly understood. Ecological surveys and studies to investigate the environmental impacts are time consuming and costly and are generally reactive; a more efficient approach is to develop 2 and 3D linked hydrodynamic-ecological modelling which has the potential to be proactive and to allow forecasting of the effects of array installation. The objective of the study was to explore tools which can help model and evaluate possible far- and near field changes in the environment and ecosystem caused by the introduction of arrays of marine energy devices. Using the commercial software, MIKE by DHI, we can predict and model possible changes in the ecosystem. MIKE21 and ECOLab modelling software provide the opportunity to couple high level hydrodynamic models with process based ecological models and/or agent based models (ABM). The flow solutions of the model were determined in an idealised tidal basin with the dimensions similar to that of Strangford Lough, Northern Ireland, a body of water renowned for the location of the first grid-connected tidal turbine, SeaGen. In the first instance a simple process oriented ecological NPZD model was developed which are used to model marine and freshwater systems describing four state variables, Nutrient, Phytoplankton, Zooplankton and Detritus. The ecological model was run and evaluated under two hydrodynamic scenarios of the idealised basin. This included no tidal turbines (control) and an array of 55 turbines, an extreme scenario. Whilst an array of turbines has an effect on the hydrodynamics of the Lough, it is unlikely to see an extreme effect on the NPZD model. Further assessment on primary productivity and filter feeders is currently being implemented to assess impacts on these biological systems. Using MIKE software opens up many further possibilities to allow insights into the impacts of marine energy devices on the ecosystem.

  6. Social Ecological Model of Multilevel Influences on Diet

    Cancer.gov

    Social Ecological Model of Multilevel Influences on Diet Social ecological model of multilevel influences on diet: A graphic depicting concentric spheres, with the innermost sphere representing the Individual level and text labels corresponding to key

  7. Modelling the ecological niche from functional traits

    PubMed Central

    Kearney, Michael; Simpson, Stephen J.; Raubenheimer, David; Helmuth, Brian

    2010-01-01

    The niche concept is central to ecology but is often depicted descriptively through observing associations between organisms and habitats. Here, we argue for the importance of mechanistically modelling niches based on functional traits of organisms and explore the possibilities for achieving this through the integration of three theoretical frameworks: biophysical ecology (BE), the geometric framework for nutrition (GF) and dynamic energy budget (DEB) models. These three frameworks are fundamentally based on the conservation laws of thermodynamics, describing energy and mass balance at the level of the individual and capturing the prodigious predictive power of the concepts of ‘homeostasis’ and ‘evolutionary fitness’. BE and the GF provide mechanistic multi-dimensional depictions of climatic and nutritional niches, respectively, providing a foundation for linking organismal traits (morphology, physiology, behaviour) with habitat characteristics. In turn, they provide driving inputs and cost functions for mass/energy allocation within the individual as determined by DEB models. We show how integration of the three frameworks permits calculation of activity constraints, vital rates (survival, development, growth, reproduction) and ultimately population growth rates and species distributions. When integrated with contemporary niche theory, functional trait niche models hold great promise for tackling major questions in ecology and evolutionary biology. PMID:20921046

  8. Implicit assimilation for marine ecological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weir, B.; Miller, R.; Spitz, Y. H.

    2012-12-01

    We use a new data assimilation method to estimate the parameters of a marine ecological model. At a given point in the ocean, the estimated values of the parameters determine the behaviors of the modeled planktonic groups, and thus indicate which species are dominant. To begin, we assimilate in situ observations, e.g., the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study, the Hawaii Ocean Time-series, and Ocean Weather Station Papa. From there, we estimate the parameters at surrounding points in space based on satellite observations of ocean color. Given the variation of the estimated parameters, we divide the ocean into regions meant to represent distinct ecosystems. An important feature of the data assimilation approach is that it refines the confidence limits of the optimal Gaussian approximation to the distribution of the parameters. This enables us to determine the ecological divisions with greater accuracy.

  9. Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

    PubMed

    Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2013-09-01

    Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

  10. Modelling ecological systems in a changing world

    PubMed Central

    Evans, Matthew R.

    2012-01-01

    The world is changing at an unprecedented rate. In such a situation, we need to understand the nature of the change and to make predictions about the way in which it might affect systems of interest; often we may also wish to understand what might be done to mitigate the predicted effects. In ecology, we usually make such predictions (or forecasts) by making use of mathematical models that describe the system and projecting them into the future, under changed conditions. Approaches emphasizing the desirability of simple models with analytical tractability and those that use assumed causal relationships derived statistically from data currently dominate ecological modelling. Although such models are excellent at describing the way in which a system has behaved, they are poor at predicting its future state, especially in novel conditions. In order to address questions about the impact of environmental change, and to understand what, if any, action might be taken to ameliorate it, ecologists need to develop the ability to project models into novel, future conditions. This will require the development of models based on understanding the processes that result in a system behaving the way it does, rather than relying on a description of the system, as a whole, remaining valid indefinitely. PMID:22144381

  11. Rainfall simulation experiments in ecological and conventional vineyards.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adrian, Alexander; Brings, Christine; Rodrigo Comino, Jesús; Iserloh, Thomas; Ries, Johannes B.

    2015-04-01

    In October 2014, the Trier University started a measurement series, which defines, compares and evaluates the behavior of runoff and soil erosion with different farming productions in vineyards. The research area is located in Kanzem, a traditional wine village in the Saar Valley (Rheinland-Palatinate, Germany). The test fields show different cultivation methods: ecological (with natural vegetation cover under and around the vines) and conventional cultivated rows of wine. By using the small portable rainfall simulator of Trier University it shall be proved if the assumption that there is more runoff and soil erosion in the conventional part than in the ecological part of the tillage system. Rainfall simulations assess the generation of overland flow, soil erosion and infiltration. So, a trend of soil erosion and runoff of the different cultivation techniques are noted. The objective of this work is to compare the geomorphological dynamics of two different tillage systems. Therefore, 30 rainfall simulations plots were evenly distributed on a west exposition hillside with different slope angels (8-25°), vegetation- and stone-covers. In concrete, the plot surface reaches from strongly covered soil across lithoidal surfaces to bare soil often with compacted lanes of typical using machines. In addition, by using the collected substrate, an estimation and distribution of the grain size of the eroded material shall be given. The eroded substrate is compared to soil samples of the test plots. The first results have shown that there is slightly more runoff and soil erosion in the ecological area than on the conventional part of the vineyard.

  12. An Ecological Model for Premature Infant Feeding

    PubMed Central

    White-Traut, Rosemary; Norr, Kathleen

    2013-01-01

    Premature infants are at increased risk for poor health, feeding difficulties, and impaired mother-infant interaction leading to developmental delay. Social-environmental risks, such as poverty or minority status, compound these biologic risks, placing premature infants in double jeopardy. Guided by an ecological model, the Hospital-Home Transition: Optimizing Prematures’ Environment (H-HOPE) intervention combines the Auditory, Tactile, Visual, and Vestibular intervention with participatory guidance provided by a nurse and community advocate to address the impact of multiple risk factors on premature infants’ development. PMID:19614884

  13. Simulating social-ecological systems: the Island Digital Ecosystem Avatars (IDEA) consortium.

    PubMed

    Davies, Neil; Field, Dawn; Gavaghan, David; Holbrook, Sally J; Planes, Serge; Troyer, Matthias; Bonsall, Michael; Claudet, Joachim; Roderick, George; Schmitt, Russell J; Zettler, Linda Amaral; Berteaux, Véronique; Bossin, Hervé C; Cabasse, Charlotte; Collin, Antoine; Deck, John; Dell, Tony; Dunne, Jennifer; Gates, Ruth; Harfoot, Mike; Hench, James L; Hopuare, Marania; Kirch, Patrick; Kotoulas, Georgios; Kosenkov, Alex; Kusenko, Alex; Leichter, James J; Lenihan, Hunter; Magoulas, Antonios; Martinez, Neo; Meyer, Chris; Stoll, Benoit; Swalla, Billie; Tartakovsky, Daniel M; Murphy, Hinano Teavai; Turyshev, Slava; Valdvinos, Fernanda; Williams, Rich; Wood, Spencer

    2016-01-01

    Systems biology promises to revolutionize medicine, yet human wellbeing is also inherently linked to healthy societies and environments (sustainability). The IDEA Consortium is a systems ecology open science initiative to conduct the basic scientific research needed to build use-oriented simulations (avatars) of entire social-ecological systems. Islands are the most scientifically tractable places for these studies and we begin with one of the best known: Moorea, French Polynesia. The Moorea IDEA will be a sustainability simulator modeling links and feedbacks between climate, environment, biodiversity, and human activities across a coupled marine-terrestrial landscape. As a model system, the resulting knowledge and tools will improve our ability to predict human and natural change on Moorea and elsewhere at scales relevant to management/conservation actions. PMID:26998258

  14. Evaluation of model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol -- before and after model refinement

    SciTech Connect

    Hanratty, M.P.; Liber, K.

    1994-12-31

    The Littoral Ecosystem Risk Assessment Model (LERAM) is a bioenergetic ecosystem effects model. It links single species toxicity data to a bioenergetic model of the trophic structure of an ecosystem in order to simulate community and ecosystem level effects of chemical stressors. LERAM was used in 1992 to simulate the ecological effects of diflubenzuron. When compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study, the model exaggerated the cascading of effects through the trophic levels of the littoral ecosystem. It was hypothesized that this could be corrected by making minor changes in the representation of the littoral food web. Two refinements of the model were therefore performed: (1) the plankton and macroinvertebrate model populations [eg., predatory Copepoda, herbivorous Insecta, green phytoplankton, etc.] were changed to better represent the habitat and feeding preferences of the endemic taxa; and (2) the method for modeling the microbial degradation of detritus (and the resulting nutrient remineralization) was changed from simulating bacterial populations to simulating bacterial function. Model predictions of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol were made before and after these refinements. Both sets of predictions were then compared to the results from a littoral enclosure study of the ecological effects of 4-nonylphenol. The changes in the LERAM predictions were then used to determine the success of the refinements, to guide. future research, and to further define LERAM`s domain of application.

  15. PRECIPITATION SIMULATION MODELS 1425

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Precipitation simulation models generate synthesized sequences of precipitation at a range of spatial and temporal scales. Three broad categories are general circulation models, stochastic spatial-temporal rainstorm models and daily precipitation models. Model selection and use should be justified b...

  16. Aviation Safety Simulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Houser, Scott; Yackovetsky, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    The Aviation Safety Simulation Model is a software tool that enables users to configure a terrain, a flight path, and an aircraft and simulate the aircraft's flight along the path. The simulation monitors the aircraft's proximity to terrain obstructions, and reports when the aircraft violates accepted minimum distances from an obstruction. This model design facilitates future enhancements to address other flight safety issues, particularly air and runway traffic scenarios. This report shows the user how to build a simulation scenario and run it. It also explains the model's output.

  17. Modelling the unpredictability of future biodiversity in ecological networks.

    PubMed

    Ingram, Travis; Steel, Mike

    2010-06-01

    We consider the question of how accurately we can hope to predict future biodiversity in a world in which many interacting species are at risk of extinction. Simple models assuming that species' extinctions occur independently are easily analysed, but do not account for the fact that many species depend on or otherwise interact with each other. In this paper we evaluate the effect of explicitly incorporating ecological dependencies on the predictive ability of models of extinction. In particular, we compare a model in which species' extinction rates increase because of the extinction of their prey to a model in which the same average rate increase takes place, but in which extinctions occur independently from species to species. One might expect that including this ecological information would make the prediction of future biodiversity more accurate, but instead we find that accounting for food web dependencies reveals greater uncertainty. The expected loss of biodiversity over time is similar between the two models, but the variance in future biodiversity is considerably higher in the model that includes species interactions. This increased uncertainty is because of the non-independence of species-the tendency of two species to respond similarly to the loss of a species on which both depend. We use simulations to show that this increase in variance is robust to many variations of the model, and that its magnitude should be largest in food webs that are highly dependent on a few basal species. Our results should hold whenever ecological dependencies cause most species' extinction risks to covary positively, and illustrate how more information does not necessarily improve our ability to predict future biodiversity loss. PMID:20211629

  18. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. PMID:26160664

  19. Ecological Niche Modeling of Bacillus anthracis on Three Continents: Evidence for Genetic-Ecological Divergence?

    PubMed Central

    Mullins, Jocelyn C.; Garofolo, Giuliano; Van Ert, Matthew; Fasanella, Antonio; Lukhnova, Larisa; Hugh-Jones, Martin E.; Blackburn, Jason K.

    2013-01-01

    We modeled the ecological niche of a globally successful Bacillus anthracis sublineage in the United States, Italy and Kazakhstan to better understand the geographic distribution of anthrax and potential associations between regional populations and ecology. Country-specific ecological-niche models were developed and reciprocally transferred to the other countries to determine if pathogen presence could be accurately predicted on novel landscapes. Native models accurately predicted endemic areas within each country, but transferred models failed to predict known occurrences in the outside countries. While the effects of variable selection and limitations of the genetic data should be considered, results suggest differing ecological associations for the B. anthracis populations within each country and may reflect niche specialization within the sublineage. Our findings provide guidance for developing accurate ecological niche models for this pathogen; models should be developed regionally, on the native landscape, and with consideration to population genetics. Further genomic analysis will improve our understanding of the genetic-ecological dynamics of B. anthracis across these countries and may lead to more refined predictive models for surveillance and proactive vaccination programs. Further studies should evaluate the impact of variable selection of native and transferred models. PMID:23977300

  20. Theory Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Shlachter, Jack

    2012-08-23

    Los Alamos has a long history in theory, modeling and simulation. We focus on multidisciplinary teams that tackle complex problems. Theory, modeling and simulation are tools to solve problems just like an NMR spectrometer, a gas chromatograph or an electron microscope. Problems should be used to define the theoretical tools needed and not the other way around. Best results occur when theory and experiments are working together in a team.

  1. The role of ecological models in linking ecological risk assessment to ecosystem services in agroecosystems.

    PubMed

    Galic, Nika; Schmolke, Amelie; Forbes, Valery; Baveco, Hans; van den Brink, Paul J

    2012-01-15

    Agricultural practices are essential for sustaining the human population, but at the same time they can directly disrupt ecosystem functioning. Ecological risk assessment (ERA) aims to estimate possible adverse effects of human activities on ecosystems and their parts. Current ERA practices, however, incorporate very little ecology and base the risk estimates on the results of standard tests with several standard species. The main obstacles for a more ecologically relevant ERA are the lack of clear protection goals and the inherent complexity of ecosystems that is hard to approach empirically. In this paper, we argue that the ecosystem services framework offers an opportunity to define clear and ecologically relevant protection goals. At the same time, ecological models provide the tools to address ecological complexity to the degree needed to link measurement endpoints and ecosystem services, and to quantify service provision and possible adverse effects from human activities. We focus on the ecosystem services relevant for agroecosystem functioning, including pollination, biocontrol and eutrophication effects and present modeling studies relevant for quantification of each of the services. The challenges of the ecosystem services approach are discussed as well as the limitations of ecological models in the context of ERA. A broad, multi-stakeholder dialog is necessary to aid the definition of protection goals in terms of services delivered by ecosystems and their parts. The need to capture spatio-temporal dynamics and possible interactions among service providers pose challenges for ecological models as a basis for decision making. However, we argue that both fields are advancing quickly and can prove very valuable in achieving more ecologically relevant ERA. PMID:21802704

  2. Stochastic Downscaling for Hydrodynamic and Ecological Modeling of Lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schlabing, D.; Eder, M.; Frassl, M.; Rinke, K.; Bárdossy, A.

    2012-04-01

    Weather generators are of interest in climate impact studies, because they allow different modi operandi: (1) More realizations of the past, (2) possible futures as defined by the modeler and (3) possible futures according to the combination of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and their Global Circulation Model (GCM) consequences. Climate modeling has huge inherently unquantifiable uncertainties, yet the results present themselves as single point values without any measure of uncertainty. Given this reduction of risk-relevant information, stochastic downscaling offers itself as a tool to recover the variability present in local measurements. One should bear in mind that the lake models that are fed with downscaling results are themselves deterministic and single runs may prove to be misleading. Especially population dynamics simulated by ecological models are sensitive to very particular events in the input data. A way to handle this sensitivity is to perform Monte Carlo studies with varying meteorological driving forces using a weather generator. For these studies, the Vector-Autoregressive Weather generator (VG), which was first presented at the EGU 2011, was developed further. VG generates daily air temperature, humidity, long- and shortwave radiance and wind. Wind and shortwave radiation is subsequently disaggregated to hourly values, because their short term variability has proven important for the application. Changes relative to the long-term values are modeled as disturbances that act during the autoregressive generation of the synthetic time series. The method preserves the dependence structure between the variables, as changes in the disturbed variable, say temperature, are propagated to the other variables. The approach is flexible because the disturbances can be chosen freely. Changes in mean can be represented as constant disturbance, changes in variability as episodes of certain length and amplitude. The disturbances can also be extracted from GCMs with the help of QQ-downscaled time series. Results of water-quality and ecological modeling using data from VG is contributed by Marieke Anna Frassl under the title "Simulating the effect of meteorological variability on a lake ecosystem". Maria Magdalena Eder contributes three dimensional hydrodynamic lake simulations using VG data in a poster entitled "Advances in estimating the climate sensibility of a large lake using scenario simulations". Both posters can be found in the Session "Lakes and Inland Seas" (HS10.1).

  3. Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drysdale, Alan; Thomas, Mark; Fresa, Mark; Wheeler, Ray

    1992-01-01

    Attention is given to CELSS, a critical technology for the Space Exploration Initiative. OCAM (object-oriented CELSS analysis and modeling) models carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen recycling. Multiple crops and plant types can be simulated. Resource recovery options from inedible biomass include leaching, enzyme treatment, aerobic digestion, and mushroom and fish growth. The benefit of using many small crops overlapping in time, instead of a single large crop, is demonstrated. Unanticipated results include startup transients which reduce the benefit of multiple small crops. The relative contributions of mass, energy, and manpower to system cost are analyzed in order to determine appropriate research directions.

  4. Southern marl prairies conceptual ecological model

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Davis, S.M.; Loftus, W.F.; Gaiser, E.E.; Huffman, A.E.

    2005-01-01

    About 190,000 ha of higher-elevation marl prairies flank either side of Shark River Slough in the southern Everglades. Water levels typically drop below the ground surface each year in this landscape. Consequently, peat soil accretion is inhibited, and substrates consist either of calcitic marl produced by algal periphyton mats or exposed limestone bedrock. The southern marl prairies support complex mosaics of wet prairie, sawgrass sawgrass (Cladium jamaicense), tree islands, and tropical hammock communities and a high diversity of plant species. However, relatively short hydroperiods and annual dry downs provide stressful conditions for aquatic fauna, affecting survival in the dry season when surface water is absent. Here, we present a conceptual ecological model developed for this landscape through scientific concensus, use of empirical data, and modeling. The two major societal drivers affecting the southern marl prairies are water management practices and agricultural and urban development. These drivers lead to five groups of ecosystem stressors: loss of spatial extent and connectivity, shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity, extended hydroperiod and drying pattern reversals, introduction and spread of non-native trees, and introduction and spread of non-native fishes. Major ecological attributes include periphyton mats, plant species diversity and community mosaic, Cape Sable seaside sparrow (Ammodramus maritimus mirabilis), marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna prey base, American alligator (Alligator mississippiensis), and wading bird early dry season foraging. Water management and development are hypothesized to have a negative effect on the ecological attributes of the southern marl prairies in the following ways. Periphyton mats have decreased in cover in areas where hydroperiod has been significantly reduced and changed in community composition due to inverse responses to increased nutrient availability. Plant species diversity and community mosaics have changed due to shifting gradients to more terrestrial or more aquatic communities, displacement of native communities by non-natives, expansion of woody plants, high-intensity dry season fires, tree-island burnout, and reduced microtopography resulting from alligator population decline. Cape Sable seaside sparrow populations are threatened by nest destruction resulting from extended hydroperiods, drying pattern reversals, and high intensity dry season fires, as well as by the expansion of woody plants into graminoid wetland habitats. Populations of marsh fishes and associated aquatic fauna that constitute the aquatic prey base for higher vertebrates have decreased in density and changed in species composition and size structure due to loss of wetland spatial extent, shortened hydroperiod, increased drought severity, loss of aquatic drought refugia in solution holes and alligator holes, and spread of exotic fishes. American alligator populations have declined in the Rocky Glades, and alligator holes have filled with sediment, as a result of shortened hydroperiod and increased drought severity. Habitat options for wading birds to forage during the early dry season and during unusually wet years have been reduced due to loss of spatial extent and shortened hydroperiod.

  5. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library - International Society for Ecological Modelling Conference

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  6. Progress and Challenges in Coupled Hydrodynamic-Ecological Estuarine Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Numerical modeling has emerged over the last several decades as a widely accepted tool for investigations in environmental sciences. In estuarine research, hydrodynamic and ecological models have moved along parallel tracks with regard to complexity, refinement, computational po...

  7. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  8. Modeling the ecological impact of heavy metals on aquatic ecosystems: a framework for the development of an ecological model.

    PubMed

    He, M; Wang, Z; Tang, H

    2001-02-01

    In this paper, an ecological model is proposed to predict the effects of heavy metals on aquatic ecosystems. The bioavailable concentration of metals and a concept of toxicity strength (TS) are combined. The integrated ecological model relates the transport, distribution and speciation of heavy metals and their toxicity, and the effect of environmental variability on metal toxicity. It also emphasizes the link between physical and chemical processes of heavy metals in rivers and ecological effects. Based on the data obtained from research in the CERP project (Co-operative Ecological Research Project), the ecological impact of heavy metals on the aquatic ecosystem of the Le An River (polluted by heavy metals from a copper mine) was predicted. The results show that the estimated values of toxicity strength for surface water are in agreement with the percentage inhibition for the test organism (P. phosphoreum) and that the predicted ecological effect of polluted sediment is consistent with natural variability in aquatic ecosystems. PMID:11258829

  9. Cognitive Modeling for Agent-Based Simulation of Child Maltreatment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Xiaolin; Puddy, Richard

    This paper extends previous work to develop cognitive modeling for agent-based simulation of child maltreatment (CM). The developed model is inspired from parental efficacy, parenting stress, and the theory of planned behavior. It provides an explanatory, process-oriented model of CM and incorporates causality relationship and feedback loops from different factors in the social ecology in order for simulating the dynamics of CM. We describe the model and present simulation results to demonstrate the features of this model.

  10. Hydrodynamic and Ecological Assessment of Nearshore Restoration: A Modeling Study

    SciTech Connect

    Yang, Zhaoqing; Sobocinski, Kathryn L.; Heatwole, Danelle W.; Khangaonkar, Tarang; Thom, Ronald M.; Fuller, Roger

    2010-04-10

    Along the Pacific Northwest coast, much of the estuarine habitat has been diked over the last century for agricultural land use, residential and commercial development, and transportation corridors. As a result, many of the ecological processes and functions have been disrupted. To protect coastal habitats that are vital to aquatic species, many restoration projects are currently underway to restore the estuarine and coastal ecosystems through dike breaches, setbacks, and removals. Information on physical processes and hydrodynamic conditions are critical for the assessment of the success of restoration actions. Restoration of a 160- acre property at the mouth of the Stillaguamish River in Puget Sound has been proposed. The goal is to restore native tidal habitats and estuary-scale ecological processes by removing the dike. In this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model was developed for the Stillaguamish River estuary to simulate estuarine processes. The model was calibrated to observed tide, current, and salinity data for existing conditions and applied to simulate the hydrodynamic responses to two restoration alternatives. Responses were evaluated at the scale of the restoration footprint. Model data was combined with biophysical data to predict habitat responses at the site. Results showed that the proposed dike removal would result in desired tidal flushing and conditions that would support four habitat types on the restoration footprint. At the estuary scale, restoration would substantially increase the proportion of area flushed with freshwater (< 5 ppt) at flood tide. Potential implications of predicted changes in salinity and flow dynamics are discussed relative to the distribution of tidal marsh habitat.

  11. A Complementary Ecological Model of the Coordinated School Health Program

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lohrmann, David K.

    2010-01-01

    Background: A complementary ecological model of the coordinated school health program (CSHP) reflecting 20 years of evolved changes is proposed. Ecology refers to the complex interrelationship between intrapersonal factors, interpersonal processes and primary groups, institutional factors, community factors, and public policy. Methods: Public…

  12. Documentation of the Ecological Risk Assessment Computer Model ECORSK.5

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales

    1999-06-01

    The FORTRAN77 ecological risk computer model--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The model is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The model can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to risk evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical models used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving model parameters.

  13. Boechera, a model system for ecological genomics

    PubMed Central

    Rushworth, Catherine A.; Song, Bao-Hua; Lee, Cheng-Ruei; Mitchell-Olds, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    The selection and development of a study system for evolutionary and ecological functional genomics (EEFG) depends on a variety of factors. Here we present the genus Boechera as an exemplary system with which to address ecological and evolutionary questions. Our focus on Boechera is based on several characteristics: 1) native populations in undisturbed habitats where current environments reflect historical conditions over several thousand years; 2) functional genomics benefitting from its close relationship to Arabidopsis thaliana; 3) inbreeding tolerance enabling development of recombinant inbred lines, near-isogenic lines, and positional cloning; 4) interspecific crosses permitting mapping for genetic analysis of speciation; 5) apomixis (asexual reproduction by seeds) in a genetically tractable diploid; and 6) broad geographic distribution in North America, permitting ecological genetics for a large research community. These characteristics, along with the current sequencing of three Boechera species by the Joint Genome Institute, position Boechera as a rapidly advancing system for EEFG studies. PMID:22059452

  14. INVASIVE SPECIES: PREDICTING GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTIONS USING ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELING

    EPA Science Inventory

    Present approaches to species invasions are reactive in nature. This scenario results in management that perpetually lags behind the most recent invasion and makes control much more difficult. In contrast, spatially explicit ecological niche modeling provides an effective solut...

  15. Meeting in Korea: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  16. Meeting in Turkey: WASP Transport Modeling and WASP Ecological Modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    A combination of lectures, demonstrations, and hands-on excercises will be used to introduce pollutant transport modeling with the U.S. EPA's general water quality model, WASP (Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program). WASP features include a user-friendly Windows-based interfa...

  17. VARIOGRAPHY AND CONDITIONAL SEQUENTIAL SIMULATION: NEW TOOLS FOR ECOLOGICAL MONITORING

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Superfund reauthorization Act requires an ecological impact statement as part of each site assessment. his is difficult because of the hierarchical multiple dimensionality of ecosystems and becaus of the limited time and resources for the site's monitoring and evaluation. he ...

  18. Ecologic Niche Modeling and Spatial Patterns of Disease Transmission

    PubMed Central

    2006-01-01

    Ecologic niche modeling (ENM) is a growing field with many potential applications to questions regarding the geography and ecology of disease transmission. Specifically, ENM has the potential to inform investigations concerned with the geography, or potential geography, of vectors, hosts, pathogens, or human cases, and it can achieve fine spatial resolution without the loss of information inherent in many other techniques. Potential applications and current frontiers and challenges are reviewed. PMID:17326931

  19. Guide for developing conceptual models for ecological risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, G.W., II

    1996-05-01

    Ecological conceptual models are the result of the problem formulation phase of an ecological risk assessment, which is an important component of the Remedial Investigation process. They present hypotheses of how the site contaminants might affect the site ecology. The contaminant sources, routes, media, routes, and endpoint receptors are presented in the form of a flow chart. This guide is for preparing the conceptual models; use of this guide will standardize the models so that they will be of high quality, useful to the assessment process, and sufficiently consistent so that connections between sources of exposure and receptors can be extended across operable units (OU). Generic conceptual models are presented for source, aquatic integrator, groundwater integrator, and terrestrial OUs.

  20. Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of nine Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing teachers and students with informational reading on various ecological topics. The bulletins have these titles: Schoolyard Laboratories, Owls and Predators, The Forest Community, Life in Freshwater Marshes, Camouflage in the Animal World, Life in the Desert, The…

  1. Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    This set of teaching aids consists of nine Audubon Nature Bulletins, providing teachers and students with informational reading on various ecological topics. The bulletins have these titles: Schoolyard Laboratories, Owls and Predators, The Forest Community, Life in Freshwater Marshes, Camouflage in the Animal World, Life in the Desert, The…

  2. Delay modeling in logic simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Acken, J. M.; Goldstein, L. H.

    1980-01-01

    As digital integrated circuit size and complexity increases, the need for accurate and efficient computer simulation increases. Logic simulators such as SALOGS (SAndia LOGic Simulator), which utilize transition states in addition to the normal stable states, provide more accurate analysis than is possible with traditional logic simulators. Furthermore, the computational complexity of this analysis is far lower than that of circuit simulation such as SPICE. An eight-value logic simulation environment allows the use of accurate delay models that incorporate both element response and transition times. Thus, timing simulation with an accuracy approaching that of circuit simulation can be accomplished with an efficiency comparable to that of logic simulation. 4 figures.

  3. ECOLOGICAL MODEL TESTING: VERIFICATION, VALIDATION OR NEITHER?

    EPA Science Inventory

    Consider the need to make a management decision about a declining animal population. Two models are available to help. Before a decision is made based on model results, the astute manager or policy maker may ask, "Do the models work?" Or, "Have the models been verified or validat...

  4. Including Overweight or Obese Students in Physical Education: A Social Ecological Constraint Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Weidong; Rukavina, Paul

    2012-01-01

    In this review, we propose a social ecological constraint model to study inclusion of overweight or obese students in physical education by integrating key concepts and assumptions from ecological constraint theory in motor development and social ecological models in health promotion and behavior. The social ecological constraint model proposes…

  5. A New Approach to Ecological Risk Assessment: Simulating Effects of Global Warming on Complex Ecological Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Yun; Brose, Ulrich; Kastenberg, William; Martinez, Neo D.

    The field of Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) has been under development since the 1970s. Early ERA borrowed basic concepts from human health risk assessment (HRA) methodology [NAS 1983]. However, because of the nature of an ecosystem, there is a fundamental difference between HRA and ERA. In an HRA, the only receptor is a single human being and the concerned endpoints are always associated with human health issues, such as the risk of cancer. In ERA, however, entire populations, communities and ecosystems are at risk, and ERA must rigorously assess these more complex and larger scaled concerns. Many investigators have attempted to develop a new paradigm for ERA that can deal with this intrinsic distinction. Currently, a six-step framework is now widely used by the U.S. EPA and its contractors. This new paradigm is characterized by: (1) receptor identification, (2) hazard identification, (3) endpoint identification, (4) exposure assessment, (5) doseresponse assessment and (6) risk characterization [Lipton et al. 1993, Suter 1993]. The six-step framework identifies receptors at risk, possible hazards related to certain receptors, and chooses appropriate assessment and measurement endpoints [Suter 1990]. While the additional receptor and endpoint identifications improve on the traditional framework, single-species laboratory toxicity tests typically estimate ecological responses simply by predicting an environmental concentration associated with a certain stressor divided by the no-observed effect concentration (NOEC) for that stressor. This "Hazard Quotient" (HQ) approach ignores interactions between species that are critical to the functioning of communities and ecosystems.

  6. Model Organisms Retain an “Ecological Memory” of Complex Ecologically Relevant Environmental Variation

    PubMed Central

    Beer, Karlyn D.; Wurtmann, Elisabeth J.; Pinel, Nicolás

    2014-01-01

    Although tractable model organisms are essential to characterize the molecular mechanisms of evolution and adaptation, the ecological relevance of their behavior is not always clear because certain traits are easily lost during long-term laboratory culturing. Here, we demonstrate that despite their long tenure in the laboratory, model organisms retain “ecological memory” of complex environmental changes. We have discovered that Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1, a halophilic archaeon that dominates microbial communities in a dynamically changing hypersaline environment, simultaneously optimizes fitness to total salinity, NaCl concentration, and the [K]/[Mg] ratio. Despite being maintained under controlled conditions over the last 50 years, peaks in the three-dimensional fitness landscape occur in salinity and ionic compositions that are not replicated in laboratory culturing but are routinely observed in the natural hypersaline environment of this organism. Intriguingly, adaptation to variations in ion composition was associated with differential regulation of anaerobic metabolism genes, suggesting an intertwined relationship between responses to oxygen and salinity. Our results suggest that the ecological memory of complex environmental variations is imprinted in the networks for coordinating multiple cellular processes. These coordination networks are also essential for dealing with changes in other physicochemically linked factors present during routine laboratory culturing and, hence, retained in model organisms. PMID:24413600

  7. Model organisms retain an "ecological memory" of complex ecologically relevant environmental variation.

    PubMed

    Beer, Karlyn D; Wurtmann, Elisabeth J; Pinel, Nicolás; Baliga, Nitin S

    2014-03-01

    Although tractable model organisms are essential to characterize the molecular mechanisms of evolution and adaptation, the ecological relevance of their behavior is not always clear because certain traits are easily lost during long-term laboratory culturing. Here, we demonstrate that despite their long tenure in the laboratory, model organisms retain "ecological memory" of complex environmental changes. We have discovered that Halobacterium salinarum NRC-1, a halophilic archaeon that dominates microbial communities in a dynamically changing hypersaline environment, simultaneously optimizes fitness to total salinity, NaCl concentration, and the [K]/[Mg] ratio. Despite being maintained under controlled conditions over the last 50 years, peaks in the three-dimensional fitness landscape occur in salinity and ionic compositions that are not replicated in laboratory culturing but are routinely observed in the natural hypersaline environment of this organism. Intriguingly, adaptation to variations in ion composition was associated with differential regulation of anaerobic metabolism genes, suggesting an intertwined relationship between responses to oxygen and salinity. Our results suggest that the ecological memory of complex environmental variations is imprinted in the networks for coordinating multiple cellular processes. These coordination networks are also essential for dealing with changes in other physicochemically linked factors present during routine laboratory culturing and, hence, retained in model organisms. PMID:24413600

  8. Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 tomore » 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy’s (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.« less

  9. SSPX simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, T K

    1999-09-20

    An analytical approximation to an R-L-C circuit representing SSPX is shown to reproduce the observed capacitor bank efficiency and gun optimization data. As in the SPICE code, the spheromak gun is represented by a fixed resistance chosen to balance energy transfer to the gun. A revised estimate of the magnetic decay time in SSPX Shot 1822 then brings our estimate of the gun efficiency itself in line with the observed spheromak magnetic field for this shot. Prompted by these successes, we present a turbulence-based theoretical model for the spheromak resistance that can be implemented in the SPICE code, of the form: R{sub s} = {kappa}I (1-I{sub 0}/I){sup 2} where I is the gun current, I{sub 0} = ({Lambda}{sub 0}/{mu}{sub 0}){Phi} with bias flux and Taylor eigenvalue {lambda}{sub 0}, and {kappa} is a coefficient based on the magnetic turbulence model employed in Dan Hua's spheromak simulation code. The value of {kappa} giving a good energy balance (around 0.1 m{Omega}/KA) implies substantial turbulence levels. Implementing our model in SPICE would provide a calibration for theoretical calculations of the turbulence. Our analytic approximation to the SPICE code provides guidance to optimize future performance in SSPX, the greatest benefit appearing to come from reducing or eliminating the protective resistor to increase bank efficiency. Eliminating the resistor altogether doubles the bank efficiency and the spheromak magnetic energy.

  10. Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model

    SciTech Connect

    2005-09-01

    Stakeholders often have competing interests when selecting or planning new power plants. The purpose of developing this preliminary Electricity Portfolio Simulation Model (EPSim) is to provide a first cut, dynamic methodology and approach to this problem, that can subsequently be refined and validated, that may help energy planners, policy makers, and energy students better understand the tradeoffs associated with competing electricity portfolios. EPSim allows the user to explore competing electricity portfolios annually from 2002 to 2025 in terms of five different criteria: cost, environmental impacts, energy dependence, health and safety, and sustainability. Four additional criteria (infrastructure vulnerability, service limitations, policy needs and science and technology needs) may be added in future versions of the model. Using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) approach, users or groups of users apply weights to each of the criteria. The default energy assumptions of the model mimic Department of Energy?s (DOE) electricity portfolio to 2025 (EIA, 2005). At any time, the user can compare alternative portfolios to this reference case portfolio.

  11. Preparations, models, and simulations.

    PubMed

    Rheinberger, Hans-Jörg

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an outline for a typology of the different forms that scientific objects can take in the life sciences. The first section discusses preparations (or specimens)--a form of scientific object that accompanied the development of modern biology in different guises from the seventeenth century to the present: as anatomical-morphological specimens, as microscopic cuts, and as biochemical preparations. In the second section, the characteristics of models in biology are discussed. They became prominent from the end of the nineteenth century onwards. Some remarks on the role of simulations--characterising the life sciences of the turn from the twentieth to the twenty-first century--conclude the paper. PMID:26013191

  12. Climate and atmosphere simulator for experiments on ecological systems in changing environments.

    PubMed

    Verdier, Bruno; Jouanneau, Isabelle; Simonnet, Benoit; Rabin, Christian; Van Dooren, Tom J M; Delpierre, Nicolas; Clobert, Jean; Abbadie, Luc; Ferrière, Régis; Le Galliard, Jean-François

    2014-01-01

    Grand challenges in global change research and environmental science raise the need for replicated experiments on ecosystems subjected to controlled changes in multiple environmental factors. We designed and developed the Ecolab as a variable climate and atmosphere simulator for multifactor experimentation on natural or artificial ecosystems. The Ecolab integrates atmosphere conditioning technology optimized for accuracy and reliability. The centerpiece is a highly contained, 13-m(3) chamber to host communities of aquatic and terrestrial species and control climate (temperature, humidity, rainfall, irradiance) and atmosphere conditions (O2 and CO2 concentrations). Temperature in the atmosphere and in the water or soil column can be controlled independently of each other. All climatic and atmospheric variables can be programmed to follow dynamical trajectories and simulate gradual as well as step changes. We demonstrate the Ecolab's capacity to simulate a broad range of atmospheric and climatic conditions, their diurnal and seasonal variations, and to support the growth of a model terrestrial plant in two contrasting climate scenarios. The adaptability of the Ecolab design makes it possible to study interactions between variable climate-atmosphere factors and biotic disturbances. Developed as an open-access, multichamber platform, this equipment is available to the international scientific community for exploring interactions and feedbacks between ecological and climate systems. PMID:24955649

  13. POPULATION MODELS IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    A SETAC Pellston Workshop on Population-Level Risk Assessment was held in Roskilde, Denmark on 23-27 August 2003. One aspect of this workshop focused on modeling approaches for characterizing population-level effects of chemical exposure. The modeling work group identified th...

  14. Acute ecological toxicity and environmental persistence of simulants

    SciTech Connect

    Cataldo, D.A.; Ligotke, M.W.; McVeety, B.D.; Fellows, R.J.; Bolton, H. Jr.; Li, S.W.; Van Voris, P.; Wentsel, R.S.

    1988-06-01

    The objectives of these studies are to establish the comparative environmental behavior and chemical fate of chemical simulants. Laboratory studies were undertaken to establish: (1) deposition efficiency (deposition velocities, Vd) for receptor surfaces including plant foliage and soils; (2) dose/response relationships for important environmental components including plants and soil microflora; and (3) the environmental persistence of the simulants. Chemical agent simulants are employed for a range of testing and training activities where use of chemical agents is less than suitable from a safety and environmental standpoint. A variety of chemical simulant materials are used to simulate either nerve agents or blister agents. The following research describes the environmental effects and persistence of four simulants. These are the nerve agent stimulants diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP), diisopropyl fluorophosphate (DFP), and bis (2-ethylhexyl) phosphonate (BIS), and the mustard stimulant 2-chloroethyl ethyl sulfide (CEES). The vapor pressures for DIMP, DFP, and CEES are relatively high, reported to be 0.17, 0.58 and 3.4 mm Hg, respectively; while that of BIS is substantially less at 5.8 /times/ 10/sup /minus/5/ mm Hg at 25/degree/C. The chemical characteristics of DFP and CEES are very similar to G/VX-agents and mustard, respectively, and are employed for materials evaluation under controlled conditions. However, their toxicity precludes their use in the environment. DIMP and BIS are currently used for testing in the open air. 3 figs., 3 tabs.

  15. INTEGRATION OF AN ECONOMIC WITH AN ECOLOGICAL MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    We summarize our work on integration of an economy under imperfect competition with a simple Lotka-Volterra type ecological model. Firms and households operate within a single period planning horizon, thus there is no savings or investment. Wages are set by a dominant employer. P...

  16. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  17. A Model of Practice in Special Education: Dynamic Ecological Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hannant, Barbara; Lim, Eng Leong; McAllum, Ruth

    2010-01-01

    Dynamic Ecological Analysis (DEA) is a model of practice which increases a teams' efficacy by enabling the development of more effective interventions through collaboration and collective reflection. This process has proved to be useful in: a) clarifying thinking and problem-solving, b) transferring knowledge and thinking to significant parties,…

  18. ASSESSMENT OF SPATIAL AUTOCORRELATION IN EMPIRICAL MODELS IN ECOLOGY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Statistically assessing ecological models is inherently difficult because data are autocorrelated and this autocorrelation varies in an unknown fashion. At a simple level, the linking of a single species to a habitat type is a straightforward analysis. With some investigation int...

  19. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Fremantle

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  20. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Perth

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  1. Historical development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  2. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Sydney

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  3. Cognitive Comparisons of Students' Systems Modeling in Ecology.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hogan, Kathleen; Thomas, David

    2001-01-01

    Examines the cognition of five pairs of high school students over time as they built quantitative ecological models using STELLA software. Applies theories of the multifaceted nature of cognition to describe object-level, metalevel, and emotional dimensions of cognitive performance that help explain the observed differences among students'…

  4. The Quality of Home Environment in Brazil: An Ecological Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    de Oliveira, Ebenezer A.; Barros, Fernando C.; Anselmi, Luciana D. da Silva; Piccinini, Cesar A.

    2006-01-01

    Based on Bronfenbrenner's (1999) ecological perspective, a longitudinal, prospective model of individual differences in the quality of home environment (Home Observation for Measurement of the Environment--HOME) was tested in a sample of 179 Brazilian children and their families. Perinatal measures of family socioeconomic status (SES) and child…

  5. A Novel Integrated Ecological Model for the study of Sustainability

    EPA Science Inventory

    In recent years, there has been a growing interest among various sections of the society in the study of sustainability. Recently, a generalized mathematical model depicting a combined economic-ecological-social system has been proposed to help in the formal study of sustainabili...

  6. Development of stable isotope mixing models in ecology - Dublin

    EPA Science Inventory

    More than 40 years ago, stable isotope analysis methods used in geochemistry began to be applied to ecological studies. One common application is using mathematical mixing models to sort out the proportional contributions of various sources to a mixture. Examples include contri...

  7. Back-end Science Model Integration for Ecological Risk Assessment.

    EPA Science Inventory

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) relies on a number of ecological risk assessment models that have been developed over 30-plus years of regulating pesticide exposure and risks under Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA) and the Endangered Spe...

  8. Ecologic Niche Modeling of Blastomyces dermatitidis in Wisconsin

    PubMed Central

    Reed, Kurt D.; Meece, Jennifer K.; Archer, John R.; Peterson, A. Townsend

    2008-01-01

    Background Blastomycosis is a potentially fatal mycosis that is acquired by inhaling infectious spores of Blastomyces dermatitidis present in the environment. The ecology of this pathogen is poorly understood, in part because it has been extremely difficult to identify the niche(s) it occupies based on culture isolation of the organism from environmental samples. Methodology/Principal Findings We investigated the ecology of blastomycosis by performing maximum entropy modeling of exposure sites from 156 cases of human and canine blastomycosis to provide a regional-scale perspective of the geographic and ecologic distribution of B. dermatitidis in Wisconsin. Based on analysis with climatic, topographic, surface reflectance and other environmental variables, we predicted that ecologic conditions favorable for maintaining the fungus in nature occur predominantly within northern counties and counties along the western shoreline of Lake Michigan. Areas of highest predicted occurrence were often in proximity to waterways, especially in northcentral Wisconsin, where incidence of infection is highest. Ecologic conditions suitable for B. dermatitidis are present in urban and rural environments, and may differ at the extremes of distribution of the species in the state. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide a framework for a more informed search for specific environmental factors modulating B. dermatitidis occurrence and transmission and will be useful for improving public health awareness of relative exposure risks. PMID:18446224

  9. Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

    PubMed

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences. PMID:22543580

  10. Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  11. Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    Shenton W; Bond NR; Yen JD; Mac Nally R

    2012-07-01

    There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

  12. Evolutionary and Ecological Genomics of Non-Model Plants

    PubMed Central

    Song, Bao-Hua; Mitchell-Olds, Thomas

    2011-01-01

    Dissecting evolutionary dynamics of ecologically important traits is a long-term challenge for biologists. Attempts to understand natural variation and molecular mechanisms have motivated a move from laboratory model systems to non-model systems in diverse natural environments. Next generation sequencing methods, along with an expansion of genomic resources and tools, have fostered new links between diverse disciplines, including molecular biology, evolution, and ecology, and genomics. Great progress has been made in a few non-model wild plants, such as Arabidopsis relatives, monkey flowers, and wild sunflowers. Until recently, the lack of comprehensive genomic information has limited evolutionary and ecological studies to larger QTL regions rather than single gene resolution, and has hindered recognition of general patterns of natural variation and local adaptation. Further efforts in accumulating genomic data and developing bioinformatic and biostatistical tools are now poised to move this field forward. Integrative national and international collaborations and research communities are needed to facilitate development in the field of evolutionary and ecological genomics. PMID:21394233

  13. Contrail Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paoli, Roberto; Shariff, Karim

    2016-01-01

    There is large uncertainty in the radiative forcing induced by aircraft contrails, particularly after they transform to cirrus. It has recently become possible to simulate contrail evolution for long periods after their formation. We review the main physical processes and simulation efforts in the four phases of contrail evolution, namely the jet, vortex, vortex dissipation, and diffusion phases. Recommendations for further work are given.

  14. Assessing the Effectiveness of a Computer Simulation for Teaching Ecological Experimental Design

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stafford, Richard; Goodenough, Anne E.; Davies, Mark S.

    2010-01-01

    Designing manipulative ecological experiments is a complex and time-consuming process that is problematic to teach in traditional undergraduate classes. This study investigates the effectiveness of using a computer simulation--the Virtual Rocky Shore (VRS)--to facilitate rapid, student-centred learning of experimental design. We gave a series of…

  15. SIMULATION OF ECOLOGICALLY CONSCIOUS CHEMICAL PROCESSES: FUGITIVE EMISSIONS VERSUS OPERATING CONDITIONS: JOURNAL ARTICLE

    EPA Science Inventory

    NRMRL-CIN-1531A Mata, T.M., Smith*, R.L., Young*, D., and Costa, C.A.V. "Simulation of Ecologically Conscious Chemical Processes: Fugitive Emissions versus Operating Conditions." Paper published in: CHEMPOR' 2001, 8th International Chemical Engineering Conference, Aveiro, Portu...

  16. Inferential consequences of modeling rather than measuring snow accumulation in studies of animal ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cross, Faul C.; Klaver, Robert W.; Brennan, Angela; Creel, Scott; Beckmann, Jon P.; Higgs, Megan D.; Scurlock, Brandon M.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. It is increasingly common for studies of animal ecology to use model-based predictions of environmental variables as explanatory or predictor variables, even though model prediction uncertainty is typically unknown. To demonstrate the potential for misleading inferences when model predictions with error are used in place of direct measurements, we compared snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow depth as predicted by the Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) to field measurements of SWE and snow depth. We examined locations on elk (Cervus canadensis) winter ranges in western Wyoming, because modeled data such as SNODAS output are often used for inferences on elk ecology. Overall, SNODAS predictions tended to overestimate field measurements, prediction uncertainty was high, and the difference between SNODAS predictions and field measurements was greater in snow shadows for both snow variables compared to non-snow shadow areas. We used a simple simulation of snow effects on the probability of an elk being killed by a predator to show that, if SNODAS prediction uncertainty was ignored, we might have mistakenly concluded that SWE was not an important factor in where elk were killed in predatory attacks during the winter. In this simulation, we were interested in the effects of snow at finer scales (2) than the resolution of SNODAS. If bias were to decrease when SNODAS predictions are averaged over coarser scales, SNODAS would be applicable to population-level ecology studies. In our study, however, averaging predictions over moderate to broad spatial scales (9–2200 km2) did not reduce the differences between SNODAS predictions and field measurements. This study highlights the need to carefully evaluate two issues when using model output as an explanatory variable in subsequent analysis: (1) the model’s resolution relative to the scale of the ecological question of interest and (2) the implications of prediction uncertainty on inferences when using model predictions as explanatory or predictor variables.

  17. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

    2013-11-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by the insufficient amount of field measurements of ground truths in both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore coexistence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high-latitude areas and indicate seasonal coexistence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, has so far not been captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models, which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

  18. Distribution of phytoplankton functional types in high-nitrate low-chlorophyll waters in a new diagnostic ecological indicator model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Palacz, A. P.; St. John, M. A.; Brewin, R. J. W.; Hirata, T.; Gregg, W. W.

    2013-05-01

    Modeling and monitoring plankton functional types (PFTs) is challenged by insufficient amount of field measurements to ground-truth both plankton models and bio-optical algorithms. In this study, we combine remote sensing data and a dynamic plankton model to simulate an ecologically-sound spatial and temporal distribution of phyto-PFTs. We apply an innovative ecological indicator approach to modeling PFTs, and focus on resolving the question of diatom-coccolithophore co-existence in the subpolar high-nitrate and low-chlorophyll regions. We choose an artificial neural network as our modeling framework because it has the potential to interpret complex nonlinear interactions governing complex adaptive systems, of which marine ecosystems are a prime example. Using ecological indicators that fulfill the criteria of measurability, sensitivity and specificity, we demonstrate that our diagnostic model correctly interprets some basic ecological rules similar to ones emerging from dynamic models. Our time series highlight a dynamic phyto-PFT community composition in all high latitude areas, and indicate seasonal co-existence of diatoms and coccolithophores. This observation, though consistent with in situ and remote sensing measurements, was so far not captured by state-of-the-art dynamic models which struggle to resolve this "paradox of the plankton". We conclude that an ecological indicator approach is useful for ecological modeling of phytoplankton and potentially higher trophic levels. Finally, we speculate that it could serve as a powerful tool in advancing ecosystem-based management of marine resources.

  19. Relationship of stream ecological conditions to simulated hydraulic metrics across a gradient of basin urbanization

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Steuer, J.J.; Bales, J.D.; Giddings, E.M.P.

    2009-01-01

    The relationships among urbanization, stream hydraulics, and aquatic biology were investigated across a gradient of urbanization in 30 small basins in eastern Wisconsin, USA. Simulation of hydraulic metrics with 1-dimensional unsteady flow models was an effective means for mechanistically coupling the effects of urbanization with stream ecological conditions (i.e., algae, invertebrates, and fish). Urbanization, characterized by household, road, and urban land density, was positively correlated with the lowest shear stress for 2 adjacent transects in a reach for the low-flow summer (p < 0.001) and autumn (p < 0.01) periods. Urbanization also was positively correlated with Reynolds number and % exposed stream bed during months with moderate to low flows. Our study demonstrated the value of temporally and spatially explicit hydraulic models for providing mechanistic insight into the relationships between hydraulic variables and biological responses. For example, the positive correlation between filter-feeding invertebrate richness and minimum 2-transect shear stress observed in our study is consistent with a higher concentration of water-column particulates available for filtration. The strength of correlations between hydraulic and biological metrics is related to the time period (annual, seasonal, or monthly) considered. The hydraulic modeling approach, whether based on hourly or daily flow data, allowed documentation of the effects of a spatially variable response within a reach, and the results suggest that stream response to urbanization varies with hydraulic habitat type. ?? North American Benthological Society.

  20. Evaluating uncertainty in simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.D.; Beckman, R.J.; Morrison, J.D.; Upton, S.C.

    1998-12-01

    The authors discussed some directions for research and development of methods for assessing simulation variability, input uncertainty, and structural model uncertainty. Variance-based measures of importance for input and simulation variables arise naturally when using the quadratic loss function of the difference between the full model prediction y and the restricted prediction {tilde y}. The concluded that generic methods for assessing structural model uncertainty do not now exist. However, methods to analyze structural uncertainty for particular classes of models, like discrete event simulation models, may be attainable.

  1. Correlated percolation models of structured habitat in ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huth, Géraldine; Lesne, Annick; Munoz, François; Pitard, Estelle

    2014-12-01

    Percolation offers acknowledged models of random media when the relevant medium characteristics can be described as a binary feature. However, when considering habitat modeling in ecology, a natural constraint comes from nearest-neighbor correlations between the suitable/unsuitable states of the spatial units forming the habitat. Such constraints are also relevant in the physics of aggregation where underlying processes may lead to a form of correlated percolation. However, in ecology, the processes leading to habitat correlations are in general not known or very complex. As proposed by Hiebeler (2000), these correlations can be captured in a lattice model by an observable aggregation parameter q, supplementing the density p of suitable sites. We investigate this model as an instance of correlated percolation. We analyze the phase diagram of the percolation transition and compute the cluster size distribution, the pair-connectedness function C(r) and the correlation function g(r). We find that while g(r) displays a power-law decrease associated with long-range correlations in a wide domain of parameter values, critical properties are compatible with the universality class of uncorrelated percolation. We contrast the correlation structures obtained respectively for the correlated percolation model and for the Ising model, and show that the diversity of habitat configurations generated by the Hiebeler model is richer than the archetypal Ising model. We also find that emergent structural properties are peculiar to the implemented algorithm, leading to questioning the notion of a well-defined model of aggregated habitat. We conclude that the choice of model and algorithm has strong consequences on what insights ecological studies can get using such models of species habitat.

  2. Respiratory system simulations and modeling.

    PubMed

    MacIntyre, Neil R

    2004-04-01

    Simulators and models of the respiratory system range from simple mechanical devices to complex systems that include sophisticated computers. These systems have considerable utility in clinician education, guiding therapies, evaluating new devices and techniques, and in improving our understanding of the cardiorespiratory system. Simulators and models are of 3 types: signs-and-symptoms simulators, anatomic models, and physiologic models. Signs-and-symptoms simulators range from human actors to computer-controlled patient mannequins. Clinical scenarios, from minor abnormalities to catastrophic emergencies, can be simulated. As has been found with aircraft cockpit simulators, improved clinician performance in simulated emergencies should translate into improved performance in real patient-care situations. Anatomic modeling can simulate basic anatomy for training clinicians. Three-dimensional reconstruction of the airways, using real patient data, can help to plan therapy, understand the disease process, and warn of safety issues. Anatomic modeling with radiographs and magnetic resonance images, sometimes created using radiolabeled tracer gases, can create 3-dimensional images of regional lung anatomy and function. Physiologic signals such as carbon dioxide production, oxygen consumption, and washout/washin of various tracer gases can be used to model ventilation-perfusion and ventilation-volume relationships, and those models can improve understanding of disease processes and guide therapies. PMID:15030613

  3. Integrating models with data in ecology and palaeoecology: advances towards a model-data fusion approach.

    PubMed

    Peng, Changhui; Guiot, Joel; Wu, Haibin; Jiang, Hong; Luo, Yiqi

    2011-05-01

    It is increasingly being recognized that global ecological research requires novel methods and strategies in which to combine process-based ecological models and data in cohesive, systematic ways. Model-data fusion (MDF) is an emerging area of research in ecology and palaeoecology. It provides a new quantitative approach that offers a high level of empirical constraint over model predictions based on observations using inverse modelling and data assimilation (DA) techniques. Increasing demands to integrate model and data methods in the past decade has led to MDF utilization in palaeoecology, ecology and earth system sciences. This paper reviews key features and principles of MDF and highlights different approaches with regards to DA. After providing a critical evaluation of the numerous benefits of MDF and its current applications in palaeoecology (i.e., palaeoclimatic reconstruction, palaeovegetation and palaeocarbon storage) and ecology (i.e. parameter and uncertainty estimation, model error identification, remote sensing and ecological forecasting), the paper discusses method limitations, current challenges and future research direction. In the ongoing data-rich era of today's world, MDF could become an important diagnostic and prognostic tool in which to improve our understanding of ecological processes while testing ecological theory and hypotheses and forecasting changes in ecosystem structure, function and services. PMID:21366814

  4. Ecological prediction with nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional data models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Yang, Wen-Hsi; Wikle, Christopher K.; Holan, Scott H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.

    2013-01-01

    Time-frequency analysis has become a fundamental component of many scientific inquiries. Due to improvements in technology, the amount of high-frequency signals that are collected for ecological and other scientific processes is increasing at a dramatic rate. In order to facilitate the use of these data in ecological prediction, we introduce a class of nonlinear multivariate time-frequency functional models that can identify important features of each signal as well as the interaction of signals corresponding to the response variable of interest. Our methodology is of independent interest and utilizes stochastic search variable selection to improve model selection and performs model averaging to enhance prediction. We illustrate the effectiveness of our approach through simulation and by application to predicting spawning success of shovelnose sturgeon in the Lower Missouri River.

  5. Ecological dynamic model of grassland and its practical verification.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Xiaodong; Wang, Aihui; Zhao, Gang; Shen, Samuel S P; Zeng, Xubin; Zeng, Qingcun

    2005-02-01

    Based on the physico-biophysical considerations, mathematical analysis and some approximate formulations generally adopted in meteorology and ecology, an ecological dynamic model of grassland is developed. The model consists of three interactive variables, i.e. the biomass of living grass, the biomass of wilted grass, and the soil wetness. The major biophysical processes are represented in parameterization formulas, and the model parameters can be determined inversely by using the observational climatological and ecological data. Some major parameters are adjusted by this method to fit the data (although incomplete) in the Inner Mongolia grassland, and other secondary parameters are estimated through sensitivity studies. The model results are well agreed with reality, e.g., (i) the maintenance of grassland requires a minimum amount of annual precipitation (approximately 300 mm); (ii) there is a significant relationship between the annual precipitation and the biomass of living grass; and (iii) the overgrazing will eventually result in desertification. A specific emphasis is put on the shading effect of the wilted grass accumulated on the soil surface. It effectively reduces the soil surface temperature and the evaporation, hence benefits the maintenance of grassland and the reduction of water loss in the soil. PMID:15844356

  6. Cognitive Comparisons of Students' Systems Modeling in Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hogan, Kathleen; Thomas, David

    2001-12-01

    This study examined the cognition of five pairs of high school students over time as they built quantitative ecological models using STELLA software. One pair of students emerged as being particularly proficient at learning to model, and was able to use models productively to explore and explain ecological system behaviors. We present detailed contrasts between this and the other pairs of students' cognitive behaviors while modeling, in three areas that were crucial to their modeling productivity: (a) focusing on model output and net interactions versus on model input and individual relationships when building and revising models, (b) exploring the nature and implications of dependencies and feedbacks versus just creating these as properties of complex systems, and (c) using variables versus constants to represent continuous and periodic functions. We then apply theories of the multifaceted nature of cognition to describe object-level, metalevel, and emotional dimensions of cognitive performance that help to explain the observed differences among students' approaches to STELLA modeling. Finally, we suggest pedagogical strategies for supporting all types of students in learning the central scientific practice of model-based quantitative thinking.

  7. Numerical wind speed simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Athey, G.F.; Ballinger, M.Y.

    1981-09-01

    A relatively simple stochastic model for simulating wind speed time series that can be used as an alternative to time series from representative locations is described in this report. The model incorporates systematic seasonal variation of the mean wind, its standard deviation, and the correlation speeds. It also incorporates systematic diurnal variation of the mean speed and standard deviation. To demonstrate the model capabilities, simulations were made using model parameters derived from data collected at the Hanford Meteorology Station, and results of analysis of simulated and actual data were compared.

  8. Structural Equation Modeling: Applications in ecological and evolutionary biology research

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pugesek, Bruce H.; von Eye, Alexander; Tomer, Adrian

    2003-01-01

    This book presents an introduction to the methodology of structural equation modeling, illustrates its use, and goes on to argue that it has revolutionary implications for the study of natural systems. A major theme of this book is that we have, up to this point, attempted to study systems primarily using methods (such as the univariate model) that were designed only for considering individual processes. Understanding systems requires the capacity to examine simultaneous influences and responses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) has such capabilities. It also possesses many other traits that add strength to its utility as a means of making scientific progress. In light of the capabilities of SEM, it can be argued that much of ecological theory is currently locked in an immature state that impairs its relevance. It is further argued that the principles of SEM are capable of leading to the development and evaluation of multivariate theories of the sort vitally needed for the conservation of natural systems. Supplementary information can be found at the authors website, http://www.jamesbgrace.com/. ? Details why multivariate analyses should be used to study ecological systems ? Exposes unappreciated weakness in many current popular analyses ? Emphasizes the future methodological developments needed to advance our understanding of ecological systems.

  9. Modeling hydrologic and ecologic responses using a new eco-hydrological model for identification of droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Yohei; Koike, Toshio; Jaranilla-Sanchez, Patricia Ann

    2014-07-01

    Drought severely damages water and agricultural resources, and both hydrological and ecological responses are important for its understanding. First, precipitation deficit induces soil moisture deficiency and high plant water stress causing agricultural droughts. Second, hydrological drought characterized by deficit of river discharge and groundwater follows agricultural drought. However, contributions of vegetation dynamics to these processes at basin scale have not been quantified. To address this issue, we develop an eco-hydrological model that can calculate river discharge, groundwater, energy flux, and vegetation dynamics as diagnostic variables at basin scale within a distributed hydrological modeling framework. The model is applied to drought analysis in the Medjerda River basin. From model inputs and outputs, we calculate drought indices for different drought types. The model shows reliable accuracy in reproducing observed river discharge in long-term (19 year) simulation. Moreover, the drought index calculated from the model-estimated annual peak of leaf area index correlates well (correlation coefficient r = 0.89) with the drought index from nationwide annual crop production, which demonstrates that the modeled leaf area index is capable of representing agricultural droughts related to historical food shortages. We show that vegetation dynamics have a more rapid response to meteorological droughts than river discharge and groundwater dynamics in the Medjerda basin because vegetation dynamics are sensitive to soil moisture in surface layers, whereas soil moisture in deeper layers strongly contributes to streamflow and groundwater level. Our modeling framework can contribute to analyze drought progress, although analyses for other climate conditions are needed.

  10. Unifying wildfire models from ecology and statistical physics.

    PubMed

    Zinck, Richard D; Grimm, Volker

    2009-11-01

    Understanding the dynamics of wildfire regimes is crucial for both regional forest management and predicting global interactions between fire regimes and climate. Accordingly, spatially explicit modeling of forest fire ecosystems is a very active field of research, including both generic and highly specific models. There is, however, a second field in which wildfire has served as a metaphor for more than 20 years: statistical physics. So far, there has been only limited interaction between these two fields of wildfire modeling. Here we show that two typical generic wildfire models from ecology are structurally equivalent to the most commonly used model from statistical physics. All three models can be unified to a single model in which they appear as special cases of regrowth-dependent flammability. This local "ecological memory" of former fire events is key to self-organization in wildfire ecosystems. The unified model is able to reproduce three different patterns observed in real boreal forests: fire size distributions, fire shapes, and a hump-shaped relationship between disturbance intensity (average annual area burned) and diversity of succession stages. The unification enables us to bring together insights from both disciplines in a novel way and to identify limitations that provide starting points for further research. PMID:19799499

  11. Simulation Models in Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morrisseau, James J.

    1973-01-01

    This paper, adapted from a Society for College and University Planning conference, discusses cost simulation models in higher education. Emphasis is placed on the art of management, mini-models vs. maxi-models, the useful model, the reporting problem, anatomy of failure, information vs. action, and words of caution. (MJM)

  12. Integrative modeling of hydrological, ecological, and economical systems for water resources management at river basin scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xianglian; Yang, Xiusheng

    2005-09-01

    An integrated hydrological, ecological, and economical model (HEE) was developed at basin scale to evaluate the interactions among resources, agriculture, and rural development. Hydrological module in the integrated model was adapted from SWAT, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool, to simulate the water balance in terms of soil moisture, evapotranspiration, streamflow, and groundwater table change. Ecological module was integrated into the hydrological module to compute the ecosystem production of biomass and yield for different land use types. Economical module estimated the monetary values of crop yield and other ecosystem services. The model was implemented in a holistic approach, and able to produce simulation results at daily time steps with a spatial resolution of hydrological response unit (HRU). The integrated model was calibrated by data for the period of 1983-1991, and run for the period of 1986-1995 with the calibrated parameters for the upper and middle parts of the Yellow River basin, a semi-arid area in northwest China. The average efficiency of the model in simulating monthly streamflow was 0.63 during the calibration period, which indicated an acceptable calibration. Preliminary simulation results revealed that water use in the study area had largely reduced the streamflow in many parts of the area except for that in the riverhead. Spatial distribution of biomass, crop yield, and water productivity showed a strong impact of irrigation on agricultural production. In general, the simulation results from this study indicated that the model was capable of tracking the temporal and spatial variability of pertinent water balance variables, ecosystem dynamics, and regional economy, and provided a useful simulation tool in evaluating long-term water resources management strategies basin scale.

  13. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-06-01

    In estuaries suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. Sediment dynamics differs depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. A robust sediment transport model is a first step in developing a chain of models enabling simulations of contaminants, phytoplankton and habitat conditions. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry delta of the San Francisco estuary using a process-based approach (Delft3D Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters and the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year, water year (WY) 2011. Model results show that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models assessing the impact of climate change and management scenarios. Here we present a modeling approach that, with limited data, produces reliable predictions and can be useful for estuaries without a large amount of processes data.

  14. Joint modeling and simulation system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boyer, Richard T.; McQuay, William K.

    1993-08-01

    The defense budget is shrinking. Weapon systems are getting more complex. Test requirements are increasing. The training and war gaming scenarios are getting more demanding as fielded systems and training simulators are integrated to support combined arms training. To cope with these requirements and still stay within the budget, the Department of Defense is relying on modeling and simulation. The state of the modeling and simulation (M&S) art has advanced to the point where a user can now create incredibly realistic, extremely detailed models which can augment test and evaluation, support the acquisition process, enhance training and war gaming, facilitate intelligence gathering, and support detailed engineering.

  15. An ecological model organism flies into the genomics era.

    PubMed

    Santure, Anna W

    2016-03-01

    Despite the very rapid 'genomicization' of the field of Molecular Ecology in recent years, there have been relatively few annotated whole-genome assemblies of nonmodel organisms published. Instead, molecular ecologists have more frequently utilized next-generation sequencing technologies to develop genome-wide markers or to generate transcriptome data. Whole-genome assemblies are more expensive and require considerable computational resources and bioinformatic expertise. However, the availability of an annotated genome offers exciting opportunities to address fundamental questions in ecology and evolution that are difficult to address with moderate sets of markers or by transcriptome sequencing. Such questions include elucidating the roles of natural and sexual selection in shaping diversity, determining the roles of regulatory and protein-coding change in the evolution of traits, and determining the genomic architecture of sex-specific trait variation. Arguably, these questions are most tractable - and most interesting - in well-characterized species for which there is already some knowledge of natural and sexual selection, and of the traits that are most likely to link to fitness. In this issue, Mueller et al. () present the assembly and annotation of the genome of the blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus), a model ecological species. In addition, by sequencing the transcriptome of male and female blue tits, the authors identify and annotate sex-biased gene expression and conclude that noncoding RNA genes are likely to play a significant role in sex-biased expression. By making their assembly and annotation publically available and accessible via a genome browser, Mueller et al. () offer exciting possibilities for further research into the genomic basis of adaptation, and investigation of the roles of natural and sexual selection, in this well-studied ecological model species. PMID:26813493

  16. Automatic programming of simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, Shou X.; Dwan, Wen S.

    1988-01-01

    The objective of automatic programming is to improve the overall environment for describing the program. This improved environment is realized by a reduction in the amount of detail that the programmer needs to know and is exposed to. Furthermore, this improved environment is achieved by a specification language that is more natural to the user's problem domain and to the user's way of thinking and looking at the problem. The goal of this research is to apply the concepts of automatic programming (AP) to modeling discrete event simulation system. Specific emphasis is on the design and development of simulation tools to assist the modeler define or construct a model of the system and to then automatically write the corresponding simulation code in the target simulation language, GPSS/PC. A related goal is to evaluate the feasibility of various languages for constructing automatic programming simulation tools.

  17. Probability bounds analysis for nonlinear population ecology models.

    PubMed

    Enszer, Joshua A; Andrei M?ce?, D; Stadtherr, Mark A

    2015-09-01

    Mathematical models in population ecology often involve parameters that are empirically determined and inherently uncertain, with probability distributions for the uncertainties not known precisely. Propagating such imprecise uncertainties rigorously through a model to determine their effect on model outputs can be a challenging problem. We illustrate here a method for the direct propagation of uncertainties represented by probability bounds though nonlinear, continuous-time, dynamic models in population ecology. This makes it possible to determine rigorous bounds on the probability that some specified outcome for a population is achieved, which can be a core problem in ecosystem modeling for risk assessment and management. Results can be obtained at a computational cost that is considerably less than that required by statistical sampling methods such as Monte Carlo analysis. The method is demonstrated using three example systems, with focus on a model of an experimental aquatic food web subject to the effects of contamination by ionic liquids, a new class of potentially important industrial chemicals. PMID:26150119

  18. Simulation modeling of estuarine ecosystems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A simulation model has been developed of Galveston Bay, Texas ecosystem. Secondary productivity measured by harvestable species (such as shrimp and fish) is evaluated in terms of man-related and controllable factors, such as quantity and quality of inlet fresh-water and pollutants. This simulation model used information from an existing physical parameters model as well as pertinent biological measurements obtained by conventional sampling techniques. Predicted results from the model compared favorably with those from comparable investigations. In addition, this paper will discuss remotely sensed and conventional measurements in the framework of prospective models that may be used to study estuarine processes and ecosystem productivity.

  19. Modeling and Simulation with INS.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roberts, Stephen D.; And Others

    INS, the Integrated Network Simulation language, puts simulation modeling into a network framework and automatically performs such programming activities as placing the problem into a next event structure, coding events, collecting statistics, monitoring status, and formatting reports. To do this, INS provides a set of symbols (nodes and branches)…

  20. Opportunities for using the EOS Imaging Spectrometers and synthetic aperture radar in ecological models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ustin, Susan L.; Wessman, Carol A.; Curtiss, Brian; Kasischke, Eric; Way, Jobea; Vanderbilt, Vern C.

    1991-01-01

    Several promising approaches to assessing biochemical and architectural properties of landscapes are outlined. Strategies for using new EOS sensors in ecological models are examined. Ways in which ecological and remote sensing models can utilize information provided by the new sensors to characterize ecological properties at coarse scales and to estimate within-ecosystem properties are addressed.

  1. Estimation of Forest Biomass Increment Using Tree-ring data and Hydro-Ecological Modeling in a Rugged Forested Landscape

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, B.; Kang, S.; Kim, E.; Kim, Y.

    2006-12-01

    Terrestrial carbon sequestration by forest biomass is an important component of global carbon cycle, which is closely related to the greenhouse effect and climate system. Many researchers have studied on how to estimate forest biomass accurately and they utilized various methods including ecological modeling, remote sensing, and field measurements. However, it is still highly uncertain to estimate the forest biomass accurately and predict the future change. In particular, where water limitation is likely expected, carbon and water relations should be considered importantly in predicting vegetation primary production. The main objective of this study is to estimate biomass increments in the Gwangneung Experimental Forest (GEF) and to compare them with the simulation results of RHESSys, a GIS-based hydro-ecological model designed to simulate water and nutrient fluxes. We measured biomass and to estimate biomass increments using tree-ring data from 1991 to 2004, and they were calculated by using the single tree biomass equation. Average biomass increment during the study period was 271.38 g C m-2yr-1. RHESSys simulations need to a certain number of years to allow carbon and nitrogen stores to stabilize (spin up), which provides initial condition of the model simulation from 1991 to 2004. The data of Leaf Area Index (LAI) and daily stream discharge were used for model calibration. In addition, the results of biomass increment measurement from 1991 to 1997 in GEF were used for model parameterization, and those from 1998 to 2004 were used for validation. Our preliminary simulation results indicated that the simulation results of RHESSys model on the biomass increment was reasonably accurate, but in order to improve the prediction accuracy of this model, we concluded that various efforts on model verification and field data collection are required. *Keyword: Biomass increment, Hydro-Ecological Model. *Acknowledgement : This work was supported by the 2nd phase Brain Korea 21 Project in 2006, National Long-term Ecological Research in Korea, Ministry of Environment (CarboKorea).

  2. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR MULTI-SCALAR ASSESSMENTS OF ESTUARINE ECOLOGICAL INTEGRITY

    EPA Science Inventory

    A conceptual model was developed that relates an estuarine system's anthropogenic inputs to it's ecological integrity. Ecological integrity is operationally defined as an emergent property of an ecosystem that exists when the structural components are complete and the functional ...

  3. Dense and sparse aggregations in complex motion: Video coupled with simulation modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In censuses of aggregations composed of highly mobile animals, the link between image processing technology and simulation modeling remains relatively unexplored despite demonstrated ecological needs for abundance and density assessments. We introduce a framework that connects video censusing with ...

  4. Modeling and Simulation at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Steele, Martin J.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation is composed of two topics. The first reviews the use of modeling and simulation (M&S) particularly as it relates to the Constellation program and discrete event simulation (DES). DES is defined as a process and system analysis, through time-based and resource constrained probabilistic simulation models, that provide insight into operation system performance. The DES shows that the cycles for a launch from manufacturing and assembly to launch and recovery is about 45 days and that approximately 4 launches per year are practicable. The second topic reviews a NASA Standard for Modeling and Simulation. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board made some recommendations related to models and simulations. Some of the ideas inherent in the new standard are the documentation of M&S activities, an assessment of the credibility, and reporting to decision makers, which should include the analysis of the results, a statement as to the uncertainty in the results,and the credibility of the results. There is also discussion about verification and validation (V&V) of models. There is also discussion about the different types of models and simulation.

  5. Sensitivity analysis and simulation for DOC concentration and flux in the stream in the regional hydro-ecological simulation system (RHESSys)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Y.; Schaaf, C.; Tague, C.; Tenenbaum, D. E.; Wang, Z.; Douglas, E. M.; Chen, R. F.; Cialino, K. T.; Hwang, T.

    2013-12-01

    While the individual components of carbon cycle have been well studied for a long time, the characteristics, source and destination of carbon fluxes from the land to water are still not yet clear, especially for Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC). Empirical models have been widely used to estimate DOC in stream channels. Physical process based models are starting to play an important role in improving our knowledge as more of the key processes of DOC production and transportation are being unveiled. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys) is a physical process based terrestrial model that has the ability to simulate both the source and transportation of DOC by combining both hydrological and ecological processes. This current effort is focused on using the RHESSys model in a coastal urbanized watershed in New England Area. The first part of this research is a description of sensitivity tests undertaken to determine the influence of different parameters on the DOC concentration and flux from the land into the stream in RHESSys. Five groups of parameters were tested. The average and coefficient variance of DOC concentration and flux, as well as a Feedback Index (FI) (which was calculated as the change of DOC concentration and flux divided by the change of each parameter) were used to estimate the extent of these parameters' effects. Four groups of parameters were tested, including model parameters such as DOM_decay_rate, DOC_production_rate and DOC_absorption_rate, climate indices (which included temperature and N_deposition rate), soil and vegetation parameters (which included soil texture and vegetation types) and litter composition. The second part of this research focuses on simulating the DOC concentration and flux from the land to the water using RHESSys in the urbanized Neponset River watershed, which lies to the south of the city of Boston. Both efforts used 30 meters resolution input data at a daily time step. The simulated results compare favorably with field measures of DOC for the watershed.

  6. Advanced Space Shuttle simulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tatom, F. B.; Smith, S. R.

    1982-01-01

    A non-recursive model (based on von Karman spectra) for atmospheric turbulence along the flight path of the shuttle orbiter was developed. It provides for simulation of instantaneous vertical and horizontal gusts at the vehicle center-of-gravity, and also for simulation of instantaneous gusts gradients. Based on this model the time series for both gusts and gust gradients were generated and stored on a series of magnetic tapes, entitled Shuttle Simulation Turbulence Tapes (SSTT). The time series are designed to represent atmospheric turbulence from ground level to an altitude of 120,000 meters. A description of the turbulence generation procedure is provided. The results of validating the simulated turbulence are described. Conclusions and recommendations are presented. One-dimensional von Karman spectra are tabulated, while a discussion of the minimum frequency simulated is provided. The results of spectral and statistical analyses of the SSTT are presented.

  7. From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models

    PubMed Central

    Rounsevell, M. D. A.; Robinson, D. T.; Murray-Rust, D.

    2012-01-01

    The ecosystem service concept has emphasized the role of people within socio-ecological systems (SESs). In this paper, we review and discuss alternative ways of representing people, their behaviour and decision-making processes in SES models using an agent-based modelling (ABM) approach. We also explore how ABM can be empirically grounded using information from social survey. The capacity for ABM to be generalized beyond case studies represents a crucial next step in modelling SESs, although this comes with considerable intellectual challenges. We propose the notion of human functional types, as an analogy of plant functional types, to support the expansion (scaling) of ABM to larger areas. The expansion of scope also implies the need to represent institutional agents in SES models in order to account for alternative governance structures and policy feedbacks. Further development in the coupling of human-environment systems would contribute considerably to better application and use of the ecosystem service concept. PMID:22144388

  8. Using a probabilistic approach in an ecological risk assessment simulation tool: test case for depleted uranium (DU).

    PubMed

    Fan, Ming; Thongsri, Tepwitoon; Axe, Lisa; Tyson, Trevor A

    2005-06-01

    A probabilistic approach was applied in an ecological risk assessment (ERA) to characterize risk and address uncertainty employing Monte Carlo simulations for assessing parameter and risk probabilistic distributions. This simulation tool (ERA) includes a Window's based interface, an interactive and modifiable database management system (DBMS) that addresses a food web at trophic levels, and a comprehensive evaluation of exposure pathways. To illustrate this model, ecological risks from depleted uranium (DU) exposure at the US Army Yuma Proving Ground (YPG) and Aberdeen Proving Ground (APG) were assessed and characterized. Probabilistic distributions showed that at YPG, a reduction in plant root weight is considered likely to occur (98% likelihood) from exposure to DU; for most terrestrial animals, likelihood for adverse reproduction effects ranges from 0.1% to 44%. However, for the lesser long-nosed bat, the effects are expected to occur (>99% likelihood) through the reduction in size and weight of offspring. Based on available DU data for the firing range at APG, DU uptake will not likely affect survival of aquatic plants and animals (<0.1% likelihood). Based on field and laboratory studies conducted at APG and YPG on pocket mice, kangaroo rat, white-throated woodrat, deer, and milfoil, body burden concentrations observed fall into the distributions simulated at both sites. PMID:15910910

  9. Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs

    PubMed Central

    Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

    2015-01-01

    Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

  10. Modeling ecological traps for the control of feral pigs.

    PubMed

    Dexter, Nick; McLeod, Steven R

    2015-05-01

    Ecological traps are habitat sinks that are preferred by dispersing animals but have higher mortality or reduced fecundity compared to source habitats. Theory suggests that if mortality rates are sufficiently high, then ecological traps can result in extinction. An ecological trap may be created when pest animals are controlled in one area, but not in another area of equal habitat quality, and when there is density-dependent immigration from the high-density uncontrolled area to the low-density controlled area. We used a logistic population model to explore how varying the proportion of habitat controlled, control mortality rate, and strength of density-dependent immigration for feral pigs could affect the long-term population abundance and time to extinction. Increasing control mortality, the proportion of habitat controlled and the strength of density-dependent immigration decreased abundance both within and outside the area controlled. At higher levels of these parameters, extinction was achieved for feral pigs. We extended the analysis with a more complex stochastic, interactive model of feral pig dynamics in the Australian rangelands to examine how the same variables as the logistic model affected long-term abundance in the controlled and uncontrolled area and time to extinction. Compared to the logistic model of feral pig dynamics, the stochastic interactive model predicted lower abundances and extinction at lower control mortalities and proportions of habitat controlled. To improve the realism of the stochastic interactive model, we substituted fixed mortality rates with a density-dependent control mortality function, empirically derived from helicopter shooting exercises in Australia. Compared to the stochastic interactive model with fixed mortality rates, the model with the density-dependent control mortality function did not predict as substantial decline in abundance in controlled or uncontrolled areas or extinction for any combination of variables. These models demonstrate that pest eradication is theoretically possible without the pest being controlled throughout its range because of density-dependent immigration into the area controlled. The stronger the density-dependent immigration, the better the overall control in controlled and uncontrolled habitat combined. However, the stronger the density-dependent immigration, the poorer the control in the area controlled. For feral pigs, incorporating environmental stochasticity improves the prospects for eradication, but adding a realistic density-dependent control function eliminates these prospects. PMID:26045954

  11. Modelling dendritic ecological networks in space: anintegrated network perspective

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Peterson, Erin E.; Ver Hoef, Jay M.; Isaak, Dan J.; Falke, Jeffrey A.; Fortin, Marie-Josée; Jordon, Chris E.; McNyset, Kristina; Monestiez, Pascal; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Sengupta, Aritra; Som, Nicholas; Steel, E. Ashley; Theobald, David M.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Wenger, Seth J.

    2013-01-01

    the context of stream ecology. Within this context, we summarise the key innovations of a new family of spatial statistical models that describe spatial relationships in DENs. Finally, we discuss how different network analyses may be combined to address more complex and novel research questions. While our main focus is streams, the taxonomy of network analyses is also relevant anywhere spatial patterns in both network and 2-D space can be used to explore the influence of multi-scale processes on biota and their habitat (e.g. plant morphology and pest infestation, or preferential migration along stream or road corridors).

  12. Violence Against Women: Globalizing the Integrated Ecological Model.

    PubMed

    Fulu, Emma; Miedema, Stephanie

    2015-12-01

    Globalization theories have proliferated over the past two decades. However, global developments have yet to be systematically incorporated into theories around violence against women. This article proposes to add a global level to the existing ecological model framework, popularized by Lori Heise in 1998, to explore the relationships between global processes and experiences of violence against women. Data from the Maldives and Cambodia are used to assess how globalized ideologies, economic development and integration, religious fundamentalisms, and global cultural exchange, as components of a larger globalization process, have affected men and women's experiences and perceptions of violence against women. PMID:26215287

  13. Homogenization of Large-Scale Movement Models in Ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Garlick, M.J.; Powell, J.A.; Hooten, M.B.; McFarlane, L.R.

    2011-01-01

    A difficulty in using diffusion models to predict large scale animal population dispersal is that individuals move differently based on local information (as opposed to gradients) in differing habitat types. This can be accommodated by using ecological diffusion. However, real environments are often spatially complex, limiting application of a direct approach. Homogenization for partial differential equations has long been applied to Fickian diffusion (in which average individual movement is organized along gradients of habitat and population density). We derive a homogenization procedure for ecological diffusion and apply it to a simple model for chronic wasting disease in mule deer. Homogenization allows us to determine the impact of small scale (10-100 m) habitat variability on large scale (10-100 km) movement. The procedure generates asymptotic equations for solutions on the large scale with parameters defined by small-scale variation. The simplicity of this homogenization procedure is striking when compared to the multi-dimensional homogenization procedure for Fickian diffusion,and the method will be equally straightforward for more complex models. ?? 2010 Society for Mathematical Biology.

  14. Fiber 3.0: An ecological growth model for northeastern forest types. Forest Service general technical report (Final)

    SciTech Connect

    Solomon, D.S.; Herman, D.A.; Leak, W.B.

    1995-05-22

    Fiber, a stand projection growth model, simulates the growth and structural development of stands in the Northeast. The internal structure of the model is specified and constructed by the ecological type classifications of sugar maple--ash, beech--red maple, oad--white pine, spruce--fir, hemlock--spruce, and cedar--black spruce. Guidelines are provided on operational procedures for the major commercial species growing on these different ecologic land classifications for a range of even-aged and uneven-aged silvicultural treatments and harvesting schedules.

  15. Land surface model (LSM version 1.0) for ecological, hydrological, and atmospheric studies: Technical description and user`s guide. Technical note

    SciTech Connect

    Bonan, G.B.

    1996-01-01

    This technical note describes version 1 of the LSM land surface model. In this model, land surface processes are described in terms of biophysical fluxes (latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, reflected solar radiation, emitted longwave radiation) and biochemical fluxes (CO2) that depend on the ecological and hydrologic state of the land. Consequently, ecological and hydrological sub-models are needed to simulate temporal changes in terrestrial biomass and water.

  16. System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

    PubMed

    Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

    2013-05-15

    Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. PMID:23524327

  17. Biodiversity on island chains: Neutral model simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Warren, Patrick B.

    2010-11-01

    A neutral ecology model is simulated on an island chain, in which neighboring islands can exchange individuals but only the first island is able to receive immigrants from a metacommunity. It is found by several measures that ? -diversity decreases along the chain. Subtle changes in taxon abundance distributions can be detected when islands in the chain are compared to diversity-matched single islands. The island chain is found to have unexpectedly rich dynamics. Significant ? -diversity correlations are found between islands in the chain, which are absent between diversity-matched single islands. The results potentially apply to human microbial biodiversity and biogeography and suggest that measurements of interindividual and intraindividual ? -diversity may give insights into microbial community assembly mechanisms.

  18. Process-Driven Ecological Modeling for Landscape Change Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Altman, S.; Reif, M. K.; Swannack, T. M.

    2013-12-01

    Landscape pattern is an important driver in ecosystem dynamics and can control system-level functions such as nutrient cycling, connectivity, biodiversity and carbon sequestration. However, the links between process, pattern and function remain ambiguous. Understanding the quantitative relationship between ecological processes and landscape pattern across temporal and spatial scales is vital for successful management and implementation of ecosystem-level projects. We used remote sensing imagery to develop critical landscape metrics to understand the factors influencing landscape change. Our study area, a coastal area in southwest Florida, is highly dynamic with critically eroding beaches and a range of natural and developed land cover types. Hurricanes in 2004 and 2005 caused a breach along the coast of North Captiva Island that filled in by 2010. We used a time series of light detection and ranging (lidar) elevation data and hyperspectral imagery from 2006 and 2010 to determine land cover changes. Landscape level metrics used included: Largest Patch Index, Class Area, Area-weighted mean area, Clumpiness, Area-weighted Contiguity Index, Number of Patches, Percent of landcover, Area-weighted Shape. Our results showed 1) 27% increase in sand/soil class as the channel repaired itself and shoreline was reestablished, 2) 40% decrease in the mudflat class area due to conversion to sand/soil and water, 3) 30% increase in non-wetland vegetation class as a result of new vegetation around the repaired channel, and 4) the water class only slightly increased though there was a marked increase in the patch size area. Thus, the smaller channels disappeared with the infilling of the channel, leaving much larger, less complex patches behind the breach. Our analysis demonstrated that quantification of landscape pattern is critical to linking patterns to ecological processes and understanding how both affect landscape change. Our proof of concept indicated that ecological processes can correlate to landscape pattern and that ecosystem function changes significantly as pattern changes. However, the number of links between landscape metrics and ecological processes are highly variable. Extensively studied processes such as biodiversity can be linked to numerous landscape metrics. In contrast, correlations between sediment cycling and landscape pattern have only been evaluated for a limited number of metrics. We are incorporating these data into a relational database linking landscape and ecological patterns, processes and metrics. The database will be used to parameterize site-specific landscape evolution models projecting how landscape pattern will change as a result of future ecosystem restoration projects. The model is a spatially-explicit, grid-based model that projects changes in community composition based on changes in soil elevations. To capture scalar differences in landscape change, local and regional landscape metrics are analyzed at each time step and correlated with ecological processes to determine how ecosystem function changes with scale over time.

  19. Modeling socioeconomic and ecologic aspects of land-use change

    SciTech Connect

    Dale, V.H.; Pedlowski, M.A.; O'Neill, R.V.; Southworth, F.

    1992-01-01

    Land use change is one of the major factors affecting global environmental conditions. Prevalent types of land-use change include replacing forests with agriculture, mines or ranches; forest degradation from collection of firewood; and forest logging. A global effect of wide-scale deforestation is an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, which may affect climate. Regional effects include loss of biodiversity and disruption of hydrologic regimes. Local effects include soil erosion, siltation and decreases in soil fertility, loss of extractive reserves, and disruption of indigenous people. Modeling land use change requires combining socioeconomic and ecological factors because socioeconomic forces frequently initiate land-use change and are affected by the subsequent ecological degradation. This paper describes a modeling system that integrates submodels of human colonization and impacts to estimate patterns and rates of deforestation under different immigration and land use scenarios. Immigration which follows road building or paving is a major factor in the rapid deforestation of previously inaccessible areas. Roads facilitate colonization, allow access for large machines, and provide transportation routes for mort of raw materials and produce.

  20. Stochastic models: theory and simulation.

    SciTech Connect

    Field, Richard V., Jr.

    2008-03-01

    Many problems in applied science and engineering involve physical phenomena that behave randomly in time and/or space. Examples are diverse and include turbulent flow over an aircraft wing, Earth climatology, material microstructure, and the financial markets. Mathematical models for these random phenomena are referred to as stochastic processes and/or random fields, and Monte Carlo simulation is the only general-purpose tool for solving problems of this type. The use of Monte Carlo simulation requires methods and algorithms to generate samples of the appropriate stochastic model; these samples then become inputs and/or boundary conditions to established deterministic simulation codes. While numerous algorithms and tools currently exist to generate samples of simple random variables and vectors, no cohesive simulation tool yet exists for generating samples of stochastic processes and/or random fields. There are two objectives of this report. First, we provide some theoretical background on stochastic processes and random fields that can be used to model phenomena that are random in space and/or time. Second, we provide simple algorithms that can be used to generate independent samples of general stochastic models. The theory and simulation of random variables and vectors is also reviewed for completeness.

  1. Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-11-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  2. Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

  3. Tree Modeling and Dynamics Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tian-shuang, Fu; Yi-bing, Li; Dong-xu, Shen

    This paper introduces the theory about tree modeling and dynamic movements simulation in computer graphics. By comparing many methods we choose Geometry-based rendering as our method. The tree is decomposed into branches and leaves, under the rotation and quaternion methods we realize the tree animation and avoid the Gimbals Lock in Euler rotation. We take Orge 3D as render engine, which has good graphics programming ability. By the end we realize the tree modeling and dynamic movements simulation, achieve realistic visual quality with little computation cost.

  4. Evolutionary model on market ecology of investors and investments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Ya-Chun; Cai, Shi-Min; Lü, Linyuan; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2013-08-01

    The interactions between investors and investments are of significant importance to understand the dynamics of financial markets. An evolutionary model is proposed to investigate the dynamic behaviors of investors and investments in a market ecology. The investors are divided into two groups, active ones and passive ones, distinguished by different selection capabilities based on the partial information, while the investments are simply categorized as good ones and bad ones. Without external influence, the system consisting of both investors and investments can self-organize to a quasi-stationary state according to their own strategies associating with the gains of market information. The model suggests that the partial information asymmetry of investors and various qualities of investments commonly give rise to a diverse dynamic behavior of the system by quantifying the fraction of active investors and of good investment at the quasi-stationary state.

  5. Ecological risk model of childhood obesity in Chinese immigrant children.

    PubMed

    Zhou, Nan; Cheah, Charissa S L

    2015-07-01

    Chinese Americans are the largest and fastest growing Asian American subgroup, increasing about one-third during the 2000s. Despite the slender Asian stereotype, nearly one-third of 6-to-11 year old Chinese American children were found to be overweight (above the 85th percentile in BMI). Importantly, unique and severe health risks are associated with being overweight/obese in Chinese. Unfortunately, Chinese immigrant children have been neglected in the literature on obesity. This review aimed to identify factors at various levels of the ecological model that may place Chinese immigrant children at risk for being overweight/obese in the U.S. Key contextual factors at the micro-, meso-, exo-, macro- and chronosystem were identified guided by Bronfenbrenner's ecological systems theory. The corresponding mediating and moderating processes among the factors were also reviewed and proposed. By presenting a conceptual framework and relevant research, this review can provide a basic framework for directing future interdisciplinary research in seeking solutions to childhood obesity within this understudied population. PMID:25728887

  6. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagherazzi, Sergio; Kirwan, Matthew L.; Mudd, Simon M.; Guntenspergen, Glenn R.; Temmerman, Stijn; D'Alpaos, Andrea; van de Koppel, Johan; Rybczyk, John; Reyes, Enrique; Craft, Chris; Clough, Jonathan

    2012-01-01

    Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise.

  7. Numerical models of salt marsh evolution: Ecological, geomorphic, and climatic factors

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fagherazzi, S.; Kirwan, M.L.; Mudd, S.M.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Temmerman, S.; D'Alpaos, A.; Van De Koppel, J.; Rybczyk, J.M.; Reyes, E.; Craft, C.; Clough, J.

    2012-01-01

    Salt marshes are delicate landforms at the boundary between the sea and land. These ecosystems support a diverse biota that modifies the erosive characteristics of the substrate and mediates sediment transport processes. Here we present a broad overview of recent numerical models that quantify the formation and evolution of salt marshes under different physical and ecological drivers. In particular, we focus on the coupling between geomorphological and ecological processes and on how these feedbacks are included in predictive models of landform evolution. We describe in detail models that simulate fluxes of water, organic matter, and sediments in salt marshes. The interplay between biological and morphological processes often produces a distinct scarp between salt marshes and tidal flats. Numerical models can capture the dynamics of this boundary and the progradation or regression of the marsh in time. Tidal channels are also key features of the marsh landscape, flooding and draining the marsh platform and providing a source of sediments and nutrients to the marsh ecosystem. In recent years, several numerical models have been developed to describe the morphogenesis and long-term dynamics of salt marsh channels. Finally, salt marshes are highly sensitive to the effects of long-term climatic change. We therefore discuss in detail how numerical models have been used to determine salt marsh survival under different scenarios of sea level rise. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.

  8. Niche and neutral models predict asymptotically equivalent species abundance distributions in high-diversity ecological communities.

    PubMed

    Chisholm, Ryan A; Pacala, Stephen W

    2010-09-01

    A fundamental challenge in ecology is to understand the mechanisms that govern patterns of relative species abundance. Previous numerical simulations have suggested that complex niche-structured models produce species abundance distributions (SADs) that are qualitatively similar to those of very simple neutral models that ignore differences between species. However, in the absence of an analytical treatment of niche models, one cannot tell whether the two classes of model produce the same patterns via similar or different mechanisms. We present an analytical proof that, in the limit as diversity becomes large, a strong niche model give rises to exactly the same asymptotic form of SAD as the neutral model, and we verify the analytical predictions for a Panamanian tropical forest data set. Our results strongly suggest that neutral processes drive patterns of relative species abundance in high-diversity ecological communities, even when strong niche structure exists. However, neutral theory cannot explain what generates high diversity in the first place, and it may not be valid in low-diversity communities. Our results also confirm that neutral theory cannot be used to infer an absence of niche structure or to explain ecosystem function. PMID:20733073

  9. Automatic programming of simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schroer, Bernard J.; Tseng, Fan T.; Zhang, Shou X.; Dwan, Wen S.

    1990-01-01

    The concepts of software engineering were used to improve the simulation modeling environment. Emphasis was placed on the application of an element of rapid prototyping, or automatic programming, to assist the modeler define the problem specification. Then, once the problem specification has been defined, an automatic code generator is used to write the simulation code. The following two domains were selected for evaluating the concepts of software engineering for discrete event simulation: manufacturing domain and a spacecraft countdown network sequence. The specific tasks were to: (1) define the software requirements for a graphical user interface to the Automatic Manufacturing Programming System (AMPS) system; (2) develop a graphical user interface for AMPS; and (3) compare the AMPS graphical interface with the AMPS interactive user interface.

  10. [Measuring water ecological carrying capacity with the ecosystem-service-based ecological footprint (ESEF) method: Theory, models and application].

    PubMed

    Jiao, Wen-jun; Min, Qing-wen; Li, Wen-hua; Fuller, Anthony M

    2015-04-01

    Integrated watershed management based on aquatic ecosystems has been increasingly acknowledged. Such a change in the philosophy of water environment management requires recognizing the carrying capacity of aquatic ecosystems for human society from a more general perspective. The concept of the water ecological carrying capacity is therefore put forward, which considers both water resources and water environment, connects socio-economic development to aquatic ecosystems and provides strong support for integrated watershed management. In this paper, the authors proposed an ESEF-based measure of water ecological carrying capacity and constructed ESEF-based models of water ecological footprint and capacity, aiming to evaluate water ecological carrying capacity with footprint methods. A regional model of Taihu Lake Basin was constructed and applied to evaluate the water ecological carrying capacity in Changzhou City which located in the upper reaches of the basin. Results showed that human demand for water ecosystem services in this city had exceeded the supply capacity of local aquatic ecosystems and the significant gap between demand and supply had jeopardized the sustainability of local aquatic ecosystems. Considering aqua-product provision, water supply and pollutant absorption in an integrated way, the scale of population and economy aquatic ecosystems in Changzhou could bear only 54% of the current status. PMID:26259444

  11. Economic Analysis. Computer Simulation Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sterling Inst., Washington, DC. Educational Technology Center.

    A multimedia course in economic analysis was developed and used in conjunction with the United States Naval Academy. (See ED 043 790 and ED 043 791 for final reports of the project evaluation and development model.) This volume of the text discusses the simulation of behavioral relationships among variable elements in an economy and presents…

  12. Collective Philanthropy: Describing and Modeling the Ecology of Giving

    PubMed Central

    Gottesman, William L.; Reagan, Andrew James; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicated to education, medicine, art, public support, and religion. We find that the detailed forms of gift-size distributions differ across but are relatively constant within charity categories. We construct a model for how a donor's income affects their giving preferences in different charity categories, offering a mechanistic explanation for variations in institutional gift-size distributions. We discuss how knowledge of gift-sized distributions may be used to assess an institution's gift-giving profile, to help set fundraising goals, and to design an institution-specific giving pyramid. PMID:24983864

  13. Collective philanthropy: describing and modeling the ecology of giving.

    PubMed

    Gottesman, William L; Reagan, Andrew James; Dodds, Peter Sheridan

    2014-01-01

    Reflective of income and wealth distributions, philanthropic gifting appears to follow an approximate power-law size distribution as measured by the size of gifts received by individual institutions. We explore the ecology of gifting by analysing data sets of individual gifts for a diverse group of institutions dedicated to education, medicine, art, public support, and religion. We find that the detailed forms of gift-size distributions differ across but are relatively constant within charity categories. We construct a model for how a donor's income affects their giving preferences in different charity categories, offering a mechanistic explanation for variations in institutional gift-size distributions. We discuss how knowledge of gift-sized distributions may be used to assess an institution's gift-giving profile, to help set fundraising goals, and to design an institution-specific giving pyramid. PMID:24983864

  14. Integrated Bayesian network framework for modeling complex ecological issues.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Sandra; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2012-07-01

    The management of environmental problems is multifaceted, requiring varied and sometimes conflicting objectives and perspectives to be considered. Bayesian network (BN) modeling facilitates the integration of information from diverse sources and is well suited to tackling the management challenges of complex environmental problems. However, combining several perspectives in one model can lead to large, unwieldy BNs that are difficult to maintain and understand. Conversely, an oversimplified model may lead to an unrealistic representation of the environmental problem. Environmental managers require the current research and available knowledge about an environmental problem of interest to be consolidated in a meaningful way, thereby enabling the assessment of potential impacts and different courses of action. Previous investigations of the environmental problem of interest may have already resulted in the construction of several disparate ecological models. On the other hand, the opportunity may exist to initiate this modeling. In the first instance, the challenge is to integrate existing models and to merge the information and perspectives from these models. In the second instance, the challenge is to include different aspects of the environmental problem incorporating both the scientific and management requirements. Although the paths leading to the combined model may differ for these 2 situations, the common objective is to design an integrated model that captures the available information and research, yet is simple to maintain, expand, and refine. BN modeling is typically an iterative process, and we describe a heuristic method, the iterative Bayesian network development cycle (IBNDC), for the development of integrated BN models that are suitable for both situations outlined above. The IBNDC approach facilitates object-oriented BN (OOBN) modeling, arguably viewed as the next logical step in adaptive management modeling, and that embraces iterative development. The benefits of OOBN modeling in the environmental community have not yet been fully realized in environmental management research. The IBNDC approach to BN modeling is described in the context of 2 case studies. The first is the initiation of blooms of Lyngbya majuscula, a blue-green algae, in Deception Bay, Australia where 3 existing models are being integrated, and the second case study is the viability of the free-ranging cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) population in Namibia where an integrated OOBN model is created consisting of 3 independent subnetworks, each describing a particular aspect of free-ranging cheetah population conservation. PMID:21853523

  15. Airborne castanea pollen forecasting model for ecological and allergological implementation.

    PubMed

    Astray, G; Fernández-González, M; Rodríguez-Rajo, F J; López, D; Mejuto, J C

    2016-04-01

    Castanea sativa Miller belongs to the natural vegetation of many European deciduous forests prompting impacts in the forestry, ecology, allergological and chestnut food industry fields. The study of the Castanea flowering represents an important tool for evaluating the ecological conservation of North-Western Spain woodland and the possible changes in the chestnut distribution due to recent climatic change. The Castanea pollen production and dispersal capacity may cause hypersensitivity reactions in the sensitive human population due to the relationship between patients with chestnut pollen allergy and a potential cross reactivity risk with other pollens or plant foods. In addition to Castanea pollen's importance as a pollinosis agent, its study is also essential in North-Western Spain due to the economic impact of the industry around the chestnut tree cultivation and its beekeeping interest. The aim of this research is to develop an Artificial Neural Networks for predict the Castanea pollen concentration in the atmosphere of the North-West Spain area by means a 20years data set. It was detected an increasing trend of the total annual Castanea pollen concentrations in the atmosphere during the study period. The Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) implemented in this study show a great ability to predict Castanea pollen concentration one, two and three days ahead. The model to predict the Castanea pollen concentration one day ahead shows a high linear correlation coefficient of 0.784 (individual ANN) and 0.738 (multiple ANN). The results obtained improved those obtained by the classical methodology used to predict the airborne pollen concentrations such as time series analysis or other models based on the correlation of pollen levels with meteorological variables. PMID:26802339

  16. Modeling and Simulation for Safeguards

    SciTech Connect

    Swinhoe, Martyn T.

    2012-07-26

    The purpose of this talk is to give an overview of the role of modeling and simulation in Safeguards R&D and introduce you to (some of) the tools used. Some definitions are: (1) Modeling - the representation, often mathematical, of a process, concept, or operation of a system, often implemented by a computer program; (2) Simulation - the representation of the behavior or characteristics of one system through the use of another system, especially a computer program designed for the purpose; and (3) Safeguards - the timely detection of diversion of significant quantities of nuclear material. The role of modeling and simulation are: (1) Calculate amounts of material (plant modeling); (2) Calculate signatures of nuclear material etc. (source terms); and (3) Detector performance (radiation transport and detection). Plant modeling software (e.g. FACSIM) gives the flows and amount of material stored at all parts of the process. In safeguards this allow us to calculate the expected uncertainty of the mass and evaluate the expected MUF. We can determine the measurement accuracy required to achieve a certain performance.

  17. Multiscale Stochastic Simulation and Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    James Glimm; Xiaolin Li

    2006-01-10

    Acceleration driven instabilities of fluid mixing layers include the classical cases of Rayleigh-Taylor instability, driven by a steady acceleration and Richtmyer-Meshkov instability, driven by an impulsive acceleration. Our program starts with high resolution methods of numerical simulation of two (or more) distinct fluids, continues with analytic analysis of these solutions, and the derivation of averaged equations. A striking achievement has been the systematic agreement we obtained between simulation and experiment by using a high resolution numerical method and improved physical modeling, with surface tension. Our study is accompanies by analysis using stochastic modeling and averaged equations for the multiphase problem. We have quantified the error and uncertainty using statistical modeling methods.

  18. Application of QUAL2K Model to Assess Ecological Purification Technology for a Polluted River

    PubMed Central

    Zhu, Wenting; Niu, Qian; Zhang, Ruibin; Ye, Rui; Qian, Xin; Qian, Yu

    2015-01-01

    Industrialization and urbanization have caused water pollution and ecosystem degradation, especially in urban canals and rivers in China; accordingly, effective water quality improvement programs are needed. In this study, the Tianlai River in Jiangsu, China was taken as a research site, and a combination of ecological purification technologies consisting of biological rope, phytoremediation, and activated carbon were applied in a laboratory-scale study to examine degradation coefficients under dynamic water conditions. Coefficients were then input into the QUAL2K model to simulate various hypothetical scenarios and determine the minimum density of ecological purification combination and hydraulic retention time (HRT) to meet Grade V or IV of the China standard for surface water. The minimum densities for Grade V and IV were 1.6 times and 2 times the experimental density, while the minimum HRTs for Grade V and IV were 2.4 day and 3 day. The results of this study should provide a practical and efficient design method for ecological purification programs. PMID:25689997

  19. Assessment of Molecular Modeling & Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    2002-01-03

    This report reviews the development and applications of molecular and materials modeling in Europe and Japan in comparison to those in the United States. Topics covered include computational quantum chemistry, molecular simulations by molecular dynamics and Monte Carlo methods, mesoscale modeling of material domains, molecular-structure/macroscale property correlations like QSARs and QSPRs, and related information technologies like informatics and special-purpose molecular-modeling computers. The panel's findings include the following: The United States leads this field in many scientific areas. However, Canada has particular strengths in DFT methods and homogeneous catalysis; Europe in heterogeneous catalysis, mesoscale, and materials modeling; and Japan in materials modeling and special-purpose computing. Major government-industry initiatives are underway in Europe and Japan, notably in multi-scale materials modeling and in development of chemistry-capable ab-initio molecular dynamics codes.

  20. Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fletcher, R.J., Jr.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

    2011-01-01

    Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

  1. Rethinking the linear regression model for spatial ecological data.

    PubMed

    Wagner, Helene H

    2013-11-01

    The linear regression model, with its numerous extensions including multivariate ordination, is fundamental to quantitative research in many disciplines. However, spatial or temporal structure in the data may invalidate the regression assumption of independent residuals. Spatial structure at any spatial scale can be modeled flexibly based on a set of uncorrelated component patterns (e.g., Moran's eigenvector maps, MEM) that is derived from the spatial relationships between sampling locations as defined in a spatial weight matrix. Spatial filtering thus addresses spatial autocorrelation in the residuals by adding such component patterns (spatial eigenvectors) as predictors to the regression model. However, space is not an ecologically meaningful predictor, and commonly used tests for selecting significant component patterns do not take into account the specific nature of these variables. This paper proposes "spatial component regression" (SCR) as a new way of integrating the linear regression model with Moran's eigenvector maps. In its unconditioned form, SCR decomposes the relationship between response and predictors by component patterns, whereas conditioned SCR provides an alternative method of spatial filtering, taking into account the statistical properties of component patterns in the design of statistical hypothesis tests. Application to the well-known multivariate mite data set illustrates how SCR may be used to condition for significant residual spatial structure and to identify additional predictors associated with residual spatial structure. Finally, I argue that all variance is spatially structured, hence spatial independence is best characterized by a lack of excess variance at any spatial scale, i.e., spatial white noise. PMID:24400490

  2. Modeling Channelization in Coastal Wetlands with Ecological Feedbacks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Z. J.; Mahadevan, A.; Pennings, S.; FitzGerald, D.

    2014-12-01

    In coastal wetlands in Georgia and South Carolina, dendritic channel networks are actively incising headward at the rate of nearly 2 m/yr. The future geomorphic evolution of these marshes remains in question as rates of relative sea-level rise increase. Our objective is to understand the mechanisms that lead to the evolution of these channel networks through field observations and modeling. We model the geomorphological evolution of tidal creeks by viewing the wetland as a permeable medium. The porosity of the medium affects its hydraulic conductivity, which in turn is altered by erosion. Our multiphase model spontaneously generates channelization and branching networks through flow and erosion. In our field studies, we find that crabs play an active role in grazing vegetation and in the bioturbation of sediments. These effects are incorporated in our model based on field and laboratory observations of crab behavior and its effects on the marsh. We find the erosional patterns and channelization are significantly altered by the faunal feedback. Crabs enhance the growth of channels, inducing the headward erosion of creeks where flow-induced stresses are weakest. They are instrumental in generating high rates of creek extension, which channelize the marsh more effectively in response to sea-level rise. This indicates that the evolution of coastal wetlands is responding to interactions between physics and ecology and highlights the importance of the faunal contribution to these feedbacks.

  3. Hydro-Ecological Modeling of Lower Mississippi River

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meselhe, E. A.; Habib, E. H.; Griborio, A.; McCorquodale, J. A.; Georgiou, I. Y.; Stronach, J.; Campanella, R.

    2005-05-01

    The Mississippi River is one of largest rivers in the world and has major economic, environmental, ecological, and industrial values not only to Louisiana but also to the entire United States. At present, the Mississippi River Delta area of coastal Louisiana is being deprived of practically all the sediment (about 220 million tons annually) that the river is transporting to the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, alternative solutions to recover or re-direct portion of this massive amount of valuable sediment to benefit the restoration of Louisiana coastal lands should be carefully investigated. In order for such investigation to be successful, the impact of management and restoration projects on the conditions of the River (supply side) and on the surrounding wetland and water bodies (demand side) should be considered. The objective of this study is to develop a three-dimensional (3D) model for portion of the Lower Mississippi River. The model should provide detailed information on the spatial and temporal patterns of the river's hydrodynamics, salinity, sediment, and water quality parameters. The model will serve as an excellent overall management and analysis tool for the Lower Mississippi River. The model will provide detailed information on the availability of fresh water and sediment for diversion to surrounding wetlands; and determine quantitatively the impact of exiting and planned diversion projects on the dynamics of the river.

  4. Predicting population dynamics with analytical, simulation and supercomputer models

    SciTech Connect

    Onstad, D.W.

    1987-07-01

    A set of epizootiological models describing the influence of a microsporidian disease on the population dynamics of an herbivorous insect demonstrate the similarities and differences between the three major approaches now available for ecological modeling. Simulation modeling allows the incorporation of randomness or the timing of discrete events in the temporal dynamics. More complex models incorporating both temporal and spatial dynamics in variable and heterogeneous environments require the use of supercomputers. Under a number of realistic circumstances, the qualitative predictions of the approaches may differ.

  5. Strategies for fitting nonlinear ecological models in R, AD Model Builder, and BUGS

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bolker, Benjamin M.; Gardner, Beth; Maunder, Mark; Berg, Casper W.; Brooks, Mollie; Comita, Liza; Crone, Elizabeth; Cubaynes, Sarah; Davies, Trevor; de Valpine, Perry; Ford, Jessica; Gimenez, Olivier; Kéry, Marc; Kim, Eun Jung; Lennert-Cody, Cleridy; Magunsson, Arni; Martell, Steve; Nash, John; Nielson, Anders; Regentz, Jim; Skaug, Hans; Zipkin, Elise

    2013-01-01

    1. Ecologists often use nonlinear fitting techniques to estimate the parameters of complex ecological models, with attendant frustration. This paper compares three open-source model fitting tools and discusses general strategies for defining and fitting models. 2. R is convenient and (relatively) easy to learn, AD Model Builder is fast and robust but comes with a steep learning curve, while BUGS provides the greatest flexibility at the price of speed. 3. Our model-fitting suggestions range from general cultural advice (where possible, use the tools and models that are most common in your subfield) to specific suggestions about how to change the mathematical description of models to make them more amenable to parameter estimation. 4. A companion web site (https://groups.nceas.ucsb.edu/nonlinear-modeling/projects) presents detailed examples of application of the three tools to a variety of typical ecological estimation problems; each example links both to a detailed project report and to full source code and data.

  6. Residue and Residuals: Evaluation of an Agroecosystem Model Using Eddy Flux Measurements and Other Ecological Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kucharik, C.; Twine, T.

    2006-12-01

    Many biogeochemical and ecological models were not originally developed to simulate the intricate aspects of crop growth and phenology in unison with carbon and water exchange across large scales. Rather, agronomists have often developed cultivar specific crop growth and yield models but these unfortunately do not always capture coupled biogeochemical cycles. Here we argue that if process-based ecosystem models are to be relied upon to capture the long-term net C balance of agroecosystems in support of such activities such as the NACP, they will have to go beyond simple adjustments to phenology and C allocation and include the effects of important management influences. We used the Agro-IBIS model, an advanced version of the IBIS DGVM, to simulate C, water, and energy exchange, phenology, C allocation, and soil environmental conditions at the Mead, Nebraska AmeriFlux site, which has varied management applied to corn and soybean crops. The key objective was to understand whether the modeling approach captured crop development, C allocation to various plant biomass pools, and end-of-season yields collectively with seasonal changes in C, water, and energy fluxes. The key finding was that the model adequately captured crop growth and yields even though rather large discrepancies in seasonal energy and water exchange were noted, particularly when LAI was not at a maximum. We concluded that failing to account for the impacts of a crop residue layer to changing surface albedo and physical properties, which influence soil moisture, soil temperature, and energy partitioning, led to the simulated errors. We conclude that if ecosystem modelers tune a new generation of agroecosystem models to FLUXNET data without accounting for the impacts of surface residue, flawed simulations of larger scale C and water exchange with the atmosphere could result, especially in the context of climate change scenarios. Given the increasing adoption of conservation tillage in agricultural management, including representation of crop residue dynamics should be a priority in future agroecosystem model development and refinement.

  7. Analysis of ecological transitions in the Black Sea during the last four decades: A modelling study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akoglu, Ekin; Salihoglu, Baris; Oguz, Temel

    2010-05-01

    This work investigates the Black Sea ecosystem and the changes it had undergone in the second half of the 20th century from a fisheries perspective using Ecopath, a widely adopted fisheries model. Different states of the Black Sea ecosystem were modeled using 5 simulation scenarios: Simulation 1, represents the quasi-pristine conditions of the Black Sea ecosystem during early 1960's; Simulation 2, represents the over-enrichment period of the ecosystem during early 1980's before the fisheries collapse and the outburst of alien ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi; Simulation 3, represents the changes in the ecosystem along with the outburst of Mnemiopsis in 1989; Simulation 4, represents the aftermath effects in the components of the Black Sea ecosystem just after the collapse of the fisheries; and Simulation 5, represents the recovery period of the fish stocks in the very beginning of the 1990's. According to the results of the model runs, it was found that the Black Sea ecosystem in its quasi-pristine conditions during early 1960's was top-down controlled. The piscivorous pelagic fish and dolphins exerted predation pressure on small pelagic fish species and suppressed their over-development. Our findings suggest that after the removal of these top predators from the ecosystem due to fishing and whaling, the small pelagic fish species had the opportunity to thrive themselves along with the over-enrichment of the Black Sea and reached high biomass levels in 1980's. Small pelagic fishes prevailed in the Black Sea ecosystem until the highly debated outburst of alien ctenophore Mnemiopsis leidyi. In 1989, the biomass of small pelagic fish species declined drastically and their population did not recover until the very beginning of 1990's due to various ecological and anthropogenic effects put forward by the outcomes of the simulations.

  8. Simulation Framework for Teaching in Modeling and Simulation Areas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Giusti, Marisa Raquel; Lira, Ariel Jorge; Villarreal, Gonzalo Lujan

    2008-01-01

    Simulation is the process of executing a model that describes a system with enough detail; this model has its entities, an internal state, some input and output variables and a list of processes bound to these variables. Teaching a simulation language such as general purpose simulation system (GPSS) is always a challenge, because of the way it…

  9. Simulations of quantum double models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brennen, G. K.; Aguado, M.; Cirac, J. I.

    2009-05-01

    We demonstrate how to build a simulation of two-dimensional (2D) physical theories describing topologically ordered systems whose excitations are in one-to-one correspondence with irreducible representations of a Hopf algebra, D(G), the quantum double of a finite group G. Our simulation uses a digital sequence of operations in a spin lattice model originally due to Kitaev to prepare a ground 'vacuum' state and to create, braid and fuse anyonic excitations. The simulation works with or without the presence of a background Hamiltonian though only in the latter case is the system topologically protected. We describe a physical realization of a simulation of the simplest non-Abelian model, D(S3), using trapped neutral atoms in a 2D optical lattice and provide a sequence of steps to perform universal quantum computation with anyons. The use of ancillary spin degrees of freedom figures prominently in our construction and provides a novel technique to prepare and probe these systems.

  10. Simulation model for the closed plant experiment facility of CEEF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abe, Koichi; Ishikawa, Yoshio; Kibe, Seishiro; Nitta, Keiji

    The Closed Ecology Experiment Facilities (CEEF) is a testbed for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS) investigations. CEEF including the physico-chemical material regenerative system has been constructed for the experiments of material circulation among plants, breeding animals and crew of CEEF. Because CEEF is a complex system, an appropriate schedule for the operation must be prepared in advance. The CEEF behavioral Prediction System, CPS, that will help to confirm the operation schedule, is under development. CPS will simulate CEEFs behavior with data (conditions of equipments, quantity of materials in tanks, etc.) of CEEF and an operation schedule that will be made by the operation team everyday, before the schedule will be carried out. The result of the simulation will show whether the operation schedule is appropriate or not. In order to realize CPS, models of the simulation program that is installed in CPS must mirror the real facilities of CEEF. For the first step of development, a flexible algorithm of the simulation program was investigated. The next step was development of a replicate simulation model of the material circulation system for the Closed Plant Experiment Facility (CPEF) that is a part of CEEF. All the parts of a real material circulation system for CPEF are connected together and work as a complex mechanism. In the simulation model, the system was separated into 38 units according to its operational segmentation. In order to develop each model for its corresponding unit, specifications for the model were fixed based on the specifications of the real part. These models were put into a simulation model for the system.

  11. Rule-based simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nieten, Joseph L.; Seraphine, Kathleen M.

    1991-01-01

    Procedural modeling systems, rule based modeling systems, and a method for converting a procedural model to a rule based model are described. Simulation models are used to represent real time engineering systems. A real time system can be represented by a set of equations or functions connected so that they perform in the same manner as the actual system. Most modeling system languages are based on FORTRAN or some other procedural language. Therefore, they must be enhanced with a reaction capability. Rule based systems are reactive by definition. Once the engineering system has been decomposed into a set of calculations using only basic algebraic unary operations, a knowledge network of calculations and functions can be constructed. The knowledge network required by a rule based system can be generated by a knowledge acquisition tool or a source level compiler. The compiler would take an existing model source file, a syntax template, and a symbol table and generate the knowledge network. Thus, existing procedural models can be translated and executed by a rule based system. Neural models can be provide the high capacity data manipulation required by the most complex real time models.

  12. Sensitivity analysis as an aid in modelling and control of (poorly-defined) ecological systems. [closed ecological systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornberger, G. M.; Rastetter, E. B.

    1982-01-01

    A literature review of the use of sensitivity analyses in modelling nonlinear, ill-defined systems, such as ecological interactions is presented. Discussions of previous work, and a proposed scheme for generalized sensitivity analysis applicable to ill-defined systems are included. This scheme considers classes of mathematical models, problem-defining behavior, analysis procedures (especially the use of Monte-Carlo methods), sensitivity ranking of parameters, and extension to control system design.

  13. Interdisciplinary Industrial Ecology Education: Recommendations for an Inclusive Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Archana

    2009-01-01

    Industrial ecology education is being developed and delivered predominantly within the domains of engineering and management. Such an approach could prove somewhat limiting to the broader goal of developing industrial ecology as an integrated knowledge base inclusive of diverse disciplines, contributing to sustainable development. This paper…

  14. Testing Natureserve's ecological integrity assessment model in Michigan and Indiana

    EPA Science Inventory

    NatureServe, in partnership with member programs from the Natural Heritage Network and federal agencies, has developed an assessment of ecosystems condition, structured around the concept of ecological integrity. Our multi-metric approach for our Ecological Integrity Assessment m...

  15. Interdisciplinary Industrial Ecology Education: Recommendations for an Inclusive Pedagogical Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Archana

    2009-01-01

    Industrial ecology education is being developed and delivered predominantly within the domains of engineering and management. Such an approach could prove somewhat limiting to the broader goal of developing industrial ecology as an integrated knowledge base inclusive of diverse disciplines, contributing to sustainable development. This paper…

  16. Creating Simulated Microgravity Patient Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hurst, Victor; Doerr, Harold K.; Bacal, Kira

    2004-01-01

    The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) has been tasked by the Space and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) to integrate medical simulation into 1) medical training for ground and flight crews and into 2) evaluations of medical procedures and equipment for the International Space Station (ISS). To do this, the MOST requires patient models that represent the physiological changes observed during spaceflight. Despite the presence of physiological data collected during spaceflight, there is no defined set of parameters that illustrate or mimic a 'space normal' patient. Methods: The MOST culled space-relevant medical literature and data from clinical studies performed in microgravity environments. The areas of focus for data collection were in the fields of cardiovascular, respiratory and renal physiology. Results: The MOST developed evidence-based patient models that mimic the physiology believed to be induced by human exposure to a microgravity environment. These models have been integrated into space-relevant scenarios using a human patient simulator and ISS medical resources. Discussion: Despite the lack of a set of physiological parameters representing 'space normal,' the MOST developed space-relevant patient models that mimic microgravity-induced changes in terrestrial physiology. These models are used in clinical scenarios that will medically train flight surgeons, biomedical flight controllers (biomedical engineers; BME) and, eventually, astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO).

  17. [Ecological characteristics of different Pseudosciaena crocea culture models].

    PubMed

    Lu, Guang-Ming; Xu, Yong-Jian; Lu, Hui-Xian

    2011-05-01

    A comparative study was conducted on the ecological characteristics of different Pseudosciaena crocea culture models including monoculture P. crocea (F) and polyculture P. crocea with seaweed Gracilaria lichevoides (FG), benthos Perinereis aibuhitensis (FP), and G. lichevoides plus P. aibuhitensis (FGP) in land-based enclosures, with the sediment and water environment condition, culture benefit, and nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) reclaim efficiency analyzed. G. lichevoides could effectively remove the N and P in the water body. The water N and P concentrations in FG and FGP were significantly lower than those in F and FP, and the P utilization efficiency reached 33.8% - 34.0% of the total P input. P. aibuhitensis improved sediment environment condition. The sediment N and P concentrations in FP and FGP were lower than those in F and FG, and had significant differences between surface sediment (1-2 cm) and subsurface sediment (2-4 cm). Comparing with those in F, the total N, total P, and inorganic P in FP and FGP reduced by 8.9% -9.2% , 6.1% -6.3% and 8.0% -8.1%, respectively. P. aibuhitensis had a higher efficiency in reclaiming sediment P (7.5% -7.8% of the total P input), being able to effectively mitigate the P accumulation in sediment. Among the test models, FGP had the best material utilization efficiency and optimal resource benefit. PMID:21812313

  18. Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-04-25

    The Electricity Generation Cost Simulation Model (GENSIM) is a user-friendly, high-level dynamic simulation model that calculates electricity production costs for variety of electricity generation technologies, including: pulverized coal, gas combustion turbine, gas combined cycle, nuclear, solar (PV and thermal), and wind. The model allows the user to quickly conduct sensitivity analysis on key variables, including: capital, O&M, and fuel costs; interest rates; construction time; heat rates; and capacity factors. The model also includes consideration ofmore » a wide range of externality costs and pollution control options for carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and mercury. Two different data sets are included in the model; one from the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the other from Platt's Research Group. Likely users of this model include executives and staff in the Congress, the Administration and private industry (power plant builders, industrial electricity users and electric utilities). The model seeks to improve understanding of the economic viability of various generating technologies and their emission trade-offs. The base case results using the DOE data, indicate that in the absence of externality costs, or renewable tax credits, pulverized coal and gas combined cycle plants are the least cost alternatives at 3.7 and 3.5 cents/kwhr, respectively. A complete sensitivity analysis on fuel, capital, and construction time shows that these results coal and gas are much more sensitive to assumption about fuel prices than they are to capital costs or construction times. The results also show that making nuclear competitive with coal or gas requires significant reductions in capital costs, to the $1000/kW level, if no other changes are made. For renewables, the results indicate that wind is now competitive with the nuclear option and is only competitive with coal and gas for grid connected applications if one includes the federal production tax credit of 1.8 cents/kwhr.« less

  19. Hierarchical modeling and inference in ecology: The analysis of data from populations, metapopulations and communities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew; Dorazio, Robert M.

    2008-01-01

    A guide to data collection, modeling and inference strategies for biological survey data using Bayesian and classical statistical methods. This book describes a general and flexible framework for modeling and inference in ecological systems based on hierarchical models, with a strict focus on the use of probability models and parametric inference. Hierarchical models represent a paradigm shift in the application of statistics to ecological inference problems because they combine explicit models of ecological system structure or dynamics with models of how ecological systems are observed. The principles of hierarchical modeling are developed and applied to problems in population, metapopulation, community, and metacommunity systems. The book provides the first synthetic treatment of many recent methodological advances in ecological modeling and unifies disparate methods and procedures. The authors apply principles of hierarchical modeling to ecological problems, including * occurrence or occupancy models for estimating species distribution * abundance models based on many sampling protocols, including distance sampling * capture-recapture models with individual effects * spatial capture-recapture models based on camera trapping and related methods * population and metapopulation dynamic models * models of biodiversity, community structure and dynamics.

  20. Identifying Droughts by Modeling the Hydrologic and Ecologic Responses in the Medjerda River Basin, Tunisia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sawada, Y.; Koike, T.; Jaranilla-sanchez, P. A.

    2013-12-01

    Drought brings severe damage to water and agricultural resources, and both of hydrological and ecological responses are important for understanding droughts. However, the ecological contributions to drought characteristics at the basin scale have not been quantified. To address this issue, we developed an eco-hydrological model that can calculate vegetation dynamics as a diagnostic valuable in a distributed-hydrological modeling framework and identified different drought types in the Medjerda River Basin where drought is a predominant issue. From the inputs and outputs of the model, we calculate drought indices for different drought types. The model shows reliable accuracy in reproducing the observed river discharge and the satellite observed leaf area index in the long-term (19-year) simulation. Moreover, the drought index calculated from model estimated annual peak of leaf area index is well correlated (correlation coefficient; r = 0.89; see Figure) with drought index from nationwide annual crop production, which show the modeled leaf area index has enough capacity to reproducing agricultural droughts that can be related with historical food shortage on 1988-1989 and 1993-1995. Our model can estimate vegetation dynamics and water cycle simultaneously in the enough accuracy to analyze the basin-scale agricultural and hydrological droughts separately. We clarify that vegetation dynamics has quicker response to meteorological droughts than river discharge and groundwater dynamics in Medjerda River Basin because vegetation dynamics is sensitive to soil moisture in surface layers while soil moisture in deeper layers strongly contributes to stream flow and depth of groundwater level. Therefore, historical agricultural droughts predominantly occurred prior to hydrological droughts and in the 1988-1989 drought, the hydrological drought lasted much longer even after crop production recovered. Standardized anomaly index (SA) for estimated annual maximum leaf area index (green line) from model and observed annual crop production in Tunisia (orange line).

  1. SEMI Modeling and Simulation Roadmap

    SciTech Connect

    Hermina, W.L.

    2000-10-02

    With the exponential growth in the power of computing hardware and software, modeling and simulation is becoming a key enabler for the rapid design of reliable Microsystems. One vision of the future microsystem design process would include the following primary software capabilities: (1) The development of 3D part design, through standard CAD packages, with automatic design rule checks that guarantee the manufacturability and performance of the microsystem. (2) Automatic mesh generation, for 3D parts as manufactured, that permits computational simulation of the process steps, and the performance and reliability analysis for the final microsystem. (3) Computer generated 2D layouts for process steps that utilize detailed process models to generate the layout and process parameter recipe required to achieve the desired 3D part. (4) Science-based computational tools that can simulate the process physics, and the coupled thermal, fluid, structural, solid mechanics, electromagnetic and material response governing the performance and reliability of the microsystem. (5) Visualization software that permits the rapid visualization of 3D parts including cross-sectional maps, performance and reliability analysis results, and process simulation results. In addition to these desired software capabilities, a desired computing infrastructure would include massively parallel computers that enable rapid high-fidelity analysis, coupled with networked compute servers that permit computing at a distance. We now discuss the individual computational components that are required to achieve this vision. There are three primary areas of focus: design capabilities, science-based capabilities and computing infrastructure. Within each of these areas, there are several key capability requirements.

  2. A National Disturbance Modeling System to Support Ecological Carbon Sequestration Assessments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hawbaker, T. J.; Rollins, M. G.; Volegmann, J. E.; Shi, H.; Sohl, T. L.

    2009-12-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is prototyping a methodology to fulfill requirements of Section 712 of the Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007. At the core of the EISA requirements is the development of a methodology to complete a two-year assessment of current carbon stocks and other greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes, and potential increases for ecological carbon sequestration under a range of future climate changes, land-use / land-cover configurations, and policy, economic and management scenarios. Disturbances, especially fire, affect vegetation dynamics and ecosystem processes, and can also introduce substantial uncertainty and risk to the efficacy of long-term carbon sequestration strategies. Thus, the potential impacts of disturbances need to be considered under different scenarios. As part of USGS efforts to meet EISA requirements, we developed the National Disturbance Modeling System (NDMS) using a series of statistical and process-based simulation models. NDMS produces spatially-explicit forecasts of future disturbance locations and severity, and the resulting effects on vegetation dynamics. NDMS is embedded within the Forecasting Scenarios of Future Land Cover (FORE-SCE) model and informs the General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System (GEMS) for quantifying carbon stocks and GHG fluxes. For fires, NDMS relies on existing disturbance histories, such as the Landsat derived Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) and Vegetation Change Tracker (VCT) data being used to update LANDFIRE fuels data. The MTBS and VCT data are used to parameterize models predicting the number and size of fires in relation to climate, land-use/land-cover change, and socioeconomic variables. The locations of individual fire ignitions are determined by an ignition probability surface and then FARSITE is used to simulate fire spread in response to weather, fuels, and topography. Following the fire spread simulations, a burn severity model is used to determine annual changes in biomass pools. Vegetation succession among LANDFIRE vegetation types is initiated using burn perimeter and severity data at the end of each annual simulation. Results from NDMS are used to update land-use/land-cover layers used by FORE-SCE and also transferred to GEMS for quantifying and updating carbon stocks and greenhouse gas fluxes. In this presentation, we present: 1) an overview of NDMS and its role in USGS's national ecological carbon sequestration assessment; 2) validation of NDMS using historic data; and 3) initial forecasts of disturbances for the southeastern United States and their impacts on greenhouse gas emissions, and post-fire carbon stocks and fluxes.

  3. Group-based modeling of ecological trajectories in restored wetlands.

    PubMed

    Matthews, Jeffrey W

    2015-03-01

    Repeated measures taken at the same restoration sites over time are used to describe restoration trajectories and identify sites that are trending toward unexpected outcomes. Analogously, social scientists use repeated measures of individuals to describe developmental trajectories of behaviors or other outcomes. Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) is one statistical method used in behavioral and health sciences for this purpose. I introduce the use of GBTM to identify clusters of similar restoration trajectories within a sample of sites. Data collected at 54 restored wetlands in Illinois for up to 15 years post-restoration were used to describe trajectories of six indicators: plant species richness, number of Carex (sedge) species, mean coefficient of conservatism (mean C), native plant cover, perennial plant cover, and planted species cover. For each indicator, I used GBTM to classify wetlands into three to four groups with distinct trajectories. In general, cover by native and planted species declined, while species richness and mean C increased over time or peaked then declined. Site context and management may explain trajectory group membership. Specifically, wetlands restored more recently and those restored within forested contexts were more likely to follow increasing trajectories. I show GBTM to be useful for identifying typical restoration trajectory patterns, developing hypotheses regarding factors driving those patterns and pinpointing critical times for intervention. Furthermore, GBTM might be applied more broadly in ecological research to identify common patterns of community assembly in large numbers of plots or sites. PMID:26263669

  4. Simulated annealing model of acupuncture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shang, Charles; Szu, Harold

    2015-05-01

    The growth control singularity model suggests that acupuncture points (acupoints) originate from organizers in embryogenesis. Organizers are singular points in growth control. Acupuncture can cause perturbation of a system with effects similar to simulated annealing. In clinical trial, the goal of a treatment is to relieve certain disorder which corresponds to reaching certain local optimum in simulated annealing. The self-organizing effect of the system is limited and related to the person's general health and age. Perturbation at acupoints can lead a stronger local excitation (analogous to higher annealing temperature) compared to perturbation at non-singular points (placebo control points). Such difference diminishes as the number of perturbed points increases due to the wider distribution of the limited self-organizing activity. This model explains the following facts from systematic reviews of acupuncture trials: 1. Properly chosen single acupoint treatment for certain disorder can lead to highly repeatable efficacy above placebo 2. When multiple acupoints are used, the result can be highly repeatable if the patients are relatively healthy and young but are usually mixed if the patients are old, frail and have multiple disorders at the same time as the number of local optima or comorbidities increases. 3. As number of acupoints used increases, the efficacy difference between sham and real acupuncture often diminishes. It predicted that the efficacy of acupuncture is negatively correlated to the disease chronicity, severity and patient's age. This is the first biological - physical model of acupuncture which can predict and guide clinical acupuncture research.

  5. Modeling and Simulation: PowerBoosting Productivity with Simulation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Riley, Suzanne

    Minnesota high school students and teachers are learning the technology of simulation and integrating it into business and industrial technology courses. Modeling and simulation is the science of using software to construct a system within an organization and then running simulations of proposed changes to assess results before funds are spent. In…

  6. Modelling and simulation of radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirkby, Norman F.

    2007-02-01

    In this paper, models are described which have been developed to model both the way in which a population of cells respond to radiation and the way in which a population of patients respond to radiotherapy to assist the conduct of clinical trials in silico. Population balance techniques have been used to simulate the age distribution of tumour cells in the cell cycle. Sensitivity to radiation is not constant round the cell cycle and a single fraction of radiation changes the age distribution. Careful timing of further fractions of radiation can be used to maximize the damage delivered to the tumour while minimizing damage to normal tissue. However, tumour modelling does not necessarily predict patient outcome. A separate model has been established to predict the course of a brain cancer called glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). The model considers the growth of the tumour and its effect on the normal brain. A simple representation is included of the health status of the patient and hence the type of treatment offered. It is concluded that although these and similar models have a long way yet to be developed, they are beginning to have an impact on the development of clinical practice.

  7. STABLE ISOTOPES IN ECOLOGICAL STUDIES: NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN MIXING MODELS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Stable isotopes are increasingly being used as tracers in ecological studies. One application uses isotopic ratios to quantify the proportional contributions of multiple sources to a mixture. Examples include food sources for animals, water sources for plants, pollution sources...

  8. EPA ’s ECOLOGICAL MODELS FOR INTEGRATED WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Aquatic ecological populations and communities are affected by the nature and quality of the water in which they live. Specific factors that affect instream biota include chemical variables, biotic interactions, energy source, flow regime, and habitat structure. As watershed mana...

  9. Operations planning simulation: Model study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    The use of simulation modeling for the identification of system sensitivities to internal and external forces and variables is discussed. The technique provides a means of exploring alternate system procedures and processes, so that these alternatives may be considered on a mutually comparative basis permitting the selection of a mode or modes of operation which have potential advantages to the system user and the operator. These advantages are measurements is system efficiency are: (1) the ability to meet specific schedules for operations, mission or mission readiness requirements or performance standards and (2) to accomplish the objectives within cost effective limits.

  10. Power analysis for generalized linear mixed models in ecology and evolution

    PubMed Central

    Johnson, Paul C D; Barry, Sarah J E; Ferguson, Heather M; Müller, Pie

    2015-01-01

    ‘Will my study answer my research question?’ is the most fundamental question a researcher can ask when designing a study, yet when phrased in statistical terms – ‘What is the power of my study?’ or ‘How precise will my parameter estimate be?’ – few researchers in ecology and evolution (EE) try to answer it, despite the detrimental consequences of performing under- or over-powered research. We suggest that this reluctance is due in large part to the unsuitability of simple methods of power analysis (broadly defined as any attempt to quantify prospectively the ‘informativeness’ of a study) for the complex models commonly used in EE research. With the aim of encouraging the use of power analysis, we present simulation from generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) as a flexible and accessible approach to power analysis that can account for random effects, overdispersion and diverse response distributions.We illustrate the benefits of simulation-based power analysis in two research scenarios: estimating the precision of a survey to estimate tick burdens on grouse chicks and estimating the power of a trial to compare the efficacy of insecticide-treated nets in malaria mosquito control. We provide a freely available R function, sim.glmm, for simulating from GLMMs.Analysis of simulated data revealed that the effects of accounting for realistic levels of random effects and overdispersion on power and precision estimates were substantial, with correspondingly severe implications for study design in the form of up to fivefold increases in sampling effort. We also show the utility of simulations for identifying scenarios where GLMM-fitting methods can perform poorly.These results illustrate the inadequacy of standard analytical power analysis methods and the flexibility of simulation-based power analysis for GLMMs. The wider use of these methods should contribute to improving the quality of study design in EE. PMID:25893088

  11. Predicting geographic and ecological distributions of triatomine species in the southern Mexican state of Puebla using ecological niche modeling.

    PubMed

    Sandoval-Ruiz, C A; Zumaquero-Rios, J L; Rojas-Soto, O R

    2008-05-01

    We analyzed the geographic distribution using ecological niche modeling of three species of triatomines distributed in the Mexican state of Puebla. Punctual records were gathered for a period of 5 yr of fieldwork sampling. We used the genetic algorithm for rule-set production (GARP) to achieve the potential distribution of the ecological niche of triatomines. The models showed that Triatoma barberi and Meccus pallidipennis are sympatric and widely distributed in the central-southern part of the state, whereas T. dimidata is restricted to the northern mountains of the state with no overlapping among other species, M. bassolsae was not modeled because of the scarce number of locality records. We highlighted the warm and dry conditions in southern Puebla as important potential areas for triatomine presence. Finally, we correlated the species potential presence with the human population at risk of acquiring Chagas disease by vector-borne transmission; it is showed that M. pallidipennis presents the highest values of both ecological and poverty risk scenarios representing the main potential vector in the state. PMID:18533450

  12. Modeling on an ecological food chain with recycling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Qinghua; Mohamad, Zakaria; Yuan, Yuan

    2012-12-01

    We propose two nutrient-phytoplankton models with instantaneous and time delayed recycling, investigate the dynamics and examine the responses to model complexities. Instead of the familiar specific uptake rate and growth rate functions, we assume only that the nutrient uptake and phytoplankton growth rate functions are positive, increasing and bounded above. We use geometrical and analytical methods to find conditions for the existence of none, one, or at most two positive steady states and analyze the stability properties of each of these equilibria. With the variation of parameters, the system may lose its stability and bifurcation may occur. We study the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation and the possibility of stability switching. Numerical simulations illustrate the analytical results and provide further insight into the dynamics of the models, biological interpretations are given.

  13. A primer for data assimilation with ecological models using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).

    PubMed

    Zobitz, J M; Desai, A R; Moore, D J P; Chadwick, M A

    2011-11-01

    Data assimilation, or the fusion of a mathematical model with ecological data, is rapidly expanding knowledge of ecological systems across multiple spatial and temporal scales. As the amount of ecological data available to a broader audience increases, quantitative proficiency with data assimilation tools and techniques will be an essential skill for ecological analysis in this data-rich era. We provide a data assimilation primer for the novice user by (1) reviewing data assimilation terminology and methodology, (2) showcasing a variety of data assimilation studies across the ecological, environmental, and atmospheric sciences with the aim of gaining an understanding of potential applications of data assimilation, and (3) applying data assimilation in specific ecological examples to determine the components of net ecosystem carbon uptake in a forest and also the population dynamics of the mayfly (Hexagenia limbata, Serville). The review and examples are then used to provide guiding principles to newly proficient data assimilation practitioners. PMID:21874332

  14. A modular BLSS simulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rummel, John D.; Volk, Tyler

    1987-01-01

    A bioregenerative life support system (BLSS) for extraterrestrial use will be faced with coordination problems more acute than those in any ecosystem found on Earth. A related problem in BLSS design is providing an interface between the various life support processors, one that will allow for their coordination while still allowing for system expansion. A modular model is presented of a BLSS that interfaces system processors only with the material storage reservoirs, allowing those reservoirs to act as the principal buffers in the system and thus minimizing difficulties with processor coordination. The modular nature of the model allows independent development of the detailed submodels that exist within the model framework. Using this model, BLSS dynamics were investigated under normal conditions and under various failure modes. Partial and complete failures of various components, such as the waste processors or the plants themselves, drive transient responses in the model system, allowing the examination of the effectiveness of the system reservoirs as buffers. The results from simulations help to determine control strategies and BLSS design requirements. An evolved version could be used as an interactive control aid in a future BLSS.

  15. Simulation of Watershed Systems Using Component-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elag, M.; Goodall, J. L.

    2011-12-01

    Component-based modeling introduces an alternative approach for simulating watershed systems where a model can be composed of components from different disciplines, interlinked through shared boundary conditions. One advantage of component-based modeling is that it allows components to be created, tested, and maintained by independent groups, while still remaining compliant within a larger modeling system. By providing a basic framework in which components can be interlinked, watershed models can evolve more dynamically because groups are able to specialize in parts of the overall system. Despite these advantages of component-based modeling of watershed systems, there are also challenges. This paper addresses the metadata requirements for guiding development of a component-based watershed model so that different representations of the same process can be easily exchanged. We address this challenge by considering how two widely used watershed modeling systems, the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys) and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), can be decomposed into components. We then implement prototype components from these models using the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI) and test how different component configurations can be assembled to simulate rainfall/runoff processes using the Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory as our study area. The result of this work is proposed metadata requirements for the organization of a component-based watershed modeling system, focusing in particular on the classification of model components and the structure required to enable plug-and-play of model components.

  16. A Conceptual Framework for Evaluating the Domains of Applicability of Ecological Models and its Implementation in the Ecological Production Function Library

    EPA Science Inventory

    The use of computational ecological models to inform environmental management and policy has proliferated in the past 25 years. These models have become essential tools as linkages and feedbacks between human actions and ecological responses can be complex, and as funds for sampl...

  17. Ubiquitin: molecular modeling and simulations.

    PubMed

    Ganoth, Assaf; Tsfadia, Yossi; Wiener, Reuven

    2013-11-01

    The synthesis and destruction of proteins are imperative for maintaining their cellular homeostasis. In the 1970s, Aaron Ciechanover, Avram Hershko, and Irwin Rose discovered that certain proteins are tagged by ubiquitin before degradation, a discovery that awarded them the 2004 Nobel Prize in Chemistry. Compelling data gathered during the last several decades show that ubiquitin plays a vital role not only in protein degradation but also in many cellular functions including DNA repair processes, cell cycle regulation, cell growth, immune system functionality, hormone-mediated signaling in plants, vesicular trafficking pathways, regulation of histone modification and viral budding. Due to the involvement of ubiquitin in such a large number of diverse cellular processes, flaws and impairments in the ubiquitin system were found to be linked to cancer, neurodegenerative diseases, genetic disorders, and immunological disorders. Hence, deciphering the dynamics and complexity of the ubiquitin system is of significant importance. In addition to experimental techniques, computational methodologies have been gaining increasing influence in protein research and are used to uncover the structure, stability, folding, mechanism of action and interactions of proteins. Notably, molecular modeling and molecular dynamics simulations have become powerful tools that bridge the gap between structure and function while providing dynamic insights and illustrating essential mechanistic characteristics. In this study, we present an overview of molecular modeling and simulations of ubiquitin and the ubiquitin system, evaluate the status of the field, and offer our perspective on future progress in this area of research. PMID:24113788

  18. A malaria transmission-directed model of mosquito life cycle and ecology

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Malaria is a major public health issue in much of the world, and the mosquito vectors which drive transmission are key targets for interventions. Mathematical models for planning malaria eradication benefit from detailed representations of local mosquito populations, their natural dynamics and their response to campaign pressures. Methods A new model is presented for mosquito population dynamics, effects of weather, and impacts of multiple simultaneous interventions. This model is then embedded in a large-scale individual-based simulation and results for local elimination of malaria are discussed. Mosquito population behaviours, such as anthropophily and indoor feeding, are included to study their effect upon the efficacy of vector control-based elimination campaigns. Results Results for vector control tools, such as bed nets, indoor spraying, larval control and space spraying, both alone and in combination, are displayed for a single-location simulation with vector species and seasonality characteristic of central Tanzania, varying baseline transmission intensity and vector bionomics. The sensitivities to habitat type, anthropophily, indoor feeding, and baseline transmission intensity are explored. Conclusions The ability to model a spectrum of local vector species with different ecologies and behaviours allows local customization of packages of interventions and exploration of the effect of proposed new tools. PMID:21999664

  19. Importance of the predator's ecological neighborhood in modeling predation on migrating prey

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Petersen, James H.

    2001-01-01

    Most mathematical descriptions of predator-prey interactions fail to take into account the spatio-temporal structures of the populations, which can lead to errors or misinterpretations. For example, a compact pulse of prey migrating through a field of quasi-stationary predators may not be well described by standard predator-prey models, because the predators and prey are unlikely to be well mixed; that is, the prey may be exposed to only a fraction of the predator population at a time. This underscores the importance of properly accounting for the ecological neighborhood, or effective feeding range, of predators in models. We illustrate this situation with a series of models of salmon smolts migrating through a reservoir arrayed with predators. The reservoir is divided into a number of longitudinal compartments or spatial cells, the length of each cell representing the upstream-downstream range over which predators can forage. In this series of models a 100-km-long reservoir is divided, successively into 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 400 cells, with respective cell lengths of 50, 20, 10, 4, 2, 1, 0.5, and 0.25 km. We used a detailed individual-based simulation model at first, but to ensure robustness of results we supplemented this with a simple analytic model. Both models showed sharp differences in the predicted mortality to a compact pulse of smolt prey moving through the reservoir, depending on the number of spatial cells in the model. In particular, models with fewer than about 10 cells vastly overpredicted the amount of mortality due to predators with activity ranges of not more than a few kilometers. These results corroborate recent theoretical and simulation studies on the importance of spatial scale and behavior in modeling predator-prey dynamics.

  20. Violent Victimization and Perpetration during Adolescence: Developmental Stage Dependent Ecological Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Matjasko, Jennifer L.; Needham, Belinda L.; Grunden, Leslie N.; Farb, Amy Feldman

    2010-01-01

    Using a variant of the ecological-transactional model and developmental theories of delinquency on a nationally representative sample of adolescents, the current study explored the ecological predictors of violent victimization, perpetration, and both for three different developmental stages during adolescence. We examined the relative influence…

  1. The Efficacy of Ecological Macro-Models in Preservice Teacher Education: Transforming States of Mind

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stibbards, Adam; Puk, Tom

    2011-01-01

    The present study aimed to describe and evaluate a transformative, embodied, emergent learning approach to acquiring ecological literacy through higher education. A class of teacher candidates in a bachelor of education program filled out a survey, which had them rate their level of agreement with 15 items related to ecological macro-models

  2. The ecological effects of thermopeaking in Alpine streams in flume simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maiolini, Bruno; Carolli, Mauro; Bruno, M. Cristina; Siviglia, Annunziato

    2010-05-01

    In Alpine areas, the temporal patterns of hydropower plants operations can have consequences for the water bodies which receive downstream releases in the form of "hydropeaking", typically consisting in sharp releases of turbinated water in the river reaches below dams. Hydropeaking may significantly affect also the thermal regime of rivers: typically power plants fed by hypolimnetic releases from large dams cause a reduction in summer temperature and an increase in winter temperatures for long distances downstream. Very few studies have addressed the effects of the short-term temperature fluctuations related to hydropeaking (i.e., thermopeaking) on aquatic fauna, although they can be a major cause of riverine habitat degradation posing serious threats to aquatic communities. In the Adige River watershed, warm thermopeaking occurs from September to January and results in additional (up to 4°C) heating to the natural dial fluctuations; cold thermopeaking occurs from March to July and cools down the temperature (up to 6°C), in contrast with the natural trend that would result in heating during the day. The biological effects of thermopeaking are difficult to study in nature, because they are associated with hydropeaking, which is known to cause a high catastrophic drift due to the increased intensity of bed scour. However, controlled simulations of thermopeaking events could be performed in artificial flumes. We used artificial flumes which had proved to perform discharge manipulations which simulate hydropeaking events, and conducted four simulations, two warm thermopeakings in early and late winter, and two cold-thermopeakings, in early and late summer, respectively. The impact of thermopeaking on benthic macroinvertebrates was assessed by collecting those organisms which are displaced from the substrate and drift in the water column. Displacement can be active (i.e., part of the behavioural repertoire of certain insect species), or passive (i.e., catastrophic and generated by any disturbance). Drifting invertebrates were collected at time intervals before the simulation, and at continuous, short-time intervals during the simulation in order to follow the changes in drift over a short time period during the simulation. We assessed the effects of thermopreaking on the benthos community by answering to the following questions: 1) Do thermal alterations induce an increase in drift of benthic invertebrates? 3) Do a reduction or an increase in water temperature have different effects of invertebrate drift? Benthic invertebrates responded more to the cold thermopeaking simulations, with differences among taxa with different life strategies and ecological requirements.

  3. Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling.

    PubMed

    Cressie, Noel; Calder, Catherine A; Clark, James S; Ver Hoef, Jay M; Wikle, Christopher K

    2009-04-01

    Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises. PMID:19425416

  4. Georeferenced model simulations efficiently support targeted monitoring

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berlekamp, Jürgen; Klasmeier, Jörg

    2010-05-01

    The European Water Framework Directive (WFD) demands the good ecological and chemical status of surface waters. To meet the definition of good chemical status of the WFD surface water concentrations of priority pollutants must not exceed established environmental quality standards (EQS). Surveillance of the concentrations of numerous chemical pollutants in whole river basins by monitoring is laborious and time-consuming. Moreover, measured data do often not allow for immediate source apportionment which is a prerequisite for defining promising reduction strategies to be implemented within the programme of measures. In this context, spatially explicit model approaches are highly advantageous because they provide a direct link between local point emissions (e.g. treated wastewater) or diffuse non-point emissions (e.g. agricultural runoff) and resulting surface water concentrations. Scenario analyses with such models allow for a priori investigation of potential positive effects of reduction measures such as optimization of wastewater treatment. The geo-referenced model GREAT-ER (Geography-referenced Regional Exposure Assessment Tool for European Rivers) has been designed to calculate spatially resolved averaged concentrations for different flow conditions (e.g. mean or low flow) based on emission estimations for local point source emissions such as treated effluents from wastewater treatment plants. The methodology was applied to selected pharmaceuticals (diclofenac, sotalol, metoprolol, carbamazepin) in the Main river basin in Germany (approx. 27,290 km²). Average concentrations of the compounds were calculated for each river reach in the whole catchment. Simulation results were evaluated by comparison with available data from orienting monitoring and used to develop an optimal monitoring strategy for the assessment of water quality regarding micropollutants at the catchment scale.

  5. Galaxy Alignments: Theory, Modelling & Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiessling, Alina; Cacciato, Marcello; Joachimi, Benjamin; Kirk, Donnacha; Kitching, Thomas D.; Leonard, Adrienne; Mandelbaum, Rachel; Schäfer, Björn Malte; Sifón, Cristóbal; Brown, Michael L.; Rassat, Anais

    2015-11-01

    The shapes of galaxies are not randomly oriented on the sky. During the galaxy formation and evolution process, environment has a strong influence, as tidal gravitational fields in the large-scale structure tend to align nearby galaxies. Additionally, events such as galaxy mergers affect the relative alignments of both the shapes and angular momenta of galaxies throughout their history. These "intrinsic galaxy alignments" are known to exist, but are still poorly understood. This review will offer a pedagogical introduction to the current theories that describe intrinsic galaxy alignments, including the apparent difference in intrinsic alignment between early- and late-type galaxies and the latest efforts to model them analytically. It will then describe the ongoing efforts to simulate intrinsic alignments using both N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Due to the relative youth of this field, there is still much to be done to understand intrinsic galaxy alignments and this review summarises the current state of the field, providing a solid basis for future work.

  6. Propulsion System Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tai, Jimmy C. M.; McClure, Erin K.; Mavris, Dimitri N.; Burg, Cecile

    2002-01-01

    The Aerospace Systems Design Laboratory at the School of Aerospace Engineering in Georgia Institute of Technology has developed a core competency that enables propulsion technology managers to make technology investment decisions substantiated by propulsion and airframe technology system studies. This method assists the designer/manager in selecting appropriate technology concepts while accounting for the presence of risk and uncertainty as well as interactions between disciplines. This capability is incorporated into a single design simulation system that is described in this paper. This propulsion system design environment is created with a commercially available software called iSIGHT, which is a generic computational framework, and with analysis programs for engine cycle, engine flowpath, mission, and economic analyses. iSIGHT is used to integrate these analysis tools within a single computer platform and facilitate information transfer amongst the various codes. The resulting modeling and simulation (M&S) environment in conjunction with the response surface method provides the designer/decision-maker an analytical means to examine the entire design space from either a subsystem and/or system perspective. The results of this paper will enable managers to analytically play what-if games to gain insight in to the benefits (and/or degradation) of changing engine cycle design parameters. Furthermore, the propulsion design space will be explored probabilistically to show the feasibility and viability of the propulsion system integrated with a vehicle.

  7. Modeling of Army Research Laboratory EMP simulators

    SciTech Connect

    Miletta, J.R.; Chase, R.J.; Luu, B.B. ); Williams, J.W.; Viverito, V.J. )

    1993-12-01

    Models are required that permit the estimation of emitted field signatures from EMP simulators to design the simulator antenna structure, to establish the usable test volumes, and to estimate human exposure risk. This paper presents the capabilities and limitations of a variety of EMP simulator models useful to the Army's EMP survivability programs. Comparisons among frequency and time-domain models are provided for two powerful US Army Research Laboratory EMP simulators: AESOP (Army EMP Simulator Operations) and VEMPS II (Vertical EMP Simulator II).

  8. On the use of remotely sensed data to constrain process modeling and ecological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serbin, S.; Greenberg, J. A.

    2014-12-01

    The ability to seamlessly integrate information on vegetation structure, function, and dynamics across a continuum of scales, from the field to satellite observations, greatly enhances our ability to understand how terrestrial vegetation-atmosphere interactions change over time and in response?to disturbances and global change. For example, ecosystem process models require detailed information on the state (e.g. structure, leaf area index), surface properties (e.g. albedo), and dynamics (e.g. phenology, succession) of ecosystems in order to properly simulate the fluxes of carbon (C), water, and energy from the land to the atmosphere as well as address the vulnerability of ecosystems to environmental, pest and pathogen, and other anthropogenic perturbations. Other activities such as species distribution and environmental niche modeling (SDENM) require not only presence/absence information but also detailed spatial and temporal datasets, including climate and remotely sensed observations, to accurately project species ranges under current and often future climatic scenarios. Despite the many challenges of adequately initializing and parameterizing models, the last several decades have shown a substantial increase in the amount of available data useful for improving ecological predictions. Specifically remote sensing data provides an important data constraint for projecting species and successional changes as well as vegetation dynamics and the fluxes of C, water and energy and the storage of C in ecosystems, principally as a synoptic observational dataset for capturing short- to long-term plant-climate interactions. In this talk we will highlight the current and potential uses of various remotely sensed data sources in constraining process modeling and SDENM activities. We will pay particular attention to the uses of remote sensing as a direct constraint on ecological forecasts or a key observational dataset used to capture plant-climate interactions

  9. An approximate model for pulsar navigation simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jovanovic, Ilija; Enright, John

    2016-02-01

    This paper presents an approximate model for the simulation of pulsar aided navigation systems. High fidelity simulations of these systems are computationally intensive and impractical for simulating periods of a day or more. Simulation of yearlong missions is done by abstracting navigation errors as periodic Gaussian noise injections. This paper presents an intermediary approximate model to simulate position errors for periods of several weeks, useful for building more accurate Gaussian error models. This is done by abstracting photon detection and binning, replacing it with a simple deterministic process. The approximate model enables faster computation of error injection models, allowing the error model to be inexpensively updated throughout a simulation. Testing of the approximate model revealed an optimistic performance prediction for non-millisecond pulsars with more accurate predictions for pulsars in the millisecond spectrum. This performance gap was attributed to noise which is not present in the approximate model but can be predicted and added to improve accuracy.

  10. Composition and analysis of a model waste for a CELSS (Controlled Ecological Life Support System)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wydeven, T. J.

    1983-01-01

    A model waste based on a modest vegetarian diet is given, including composition and elemental analysis. Its use is recommended for evaluation of candidate waste treatment processes for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS).

  11. Modelling the ecological-functional diversification of marine Metazoa on geological time scales.

    PubMed

    Bush, Andrew M; Novack-Gottshall, Philip M

    2012-02-23

    The ecological traits and functional capabilities of marine animals have changed significantly since their origin in the late Precambrian. These changes can be analysed quantitatively using multi-dimensional parameter spaces in which the ecological lifestyles of species are represented by particular combinations of parameter values. Here, we present models that describe the filling of this multi-dimensional 'ecospace' by ecological lifestyles during metazoan diversification. These models reflect varying assumptions about the processes that drove ecological diversification; they contrast diffusive expansion with driven expansion and niche conservatism with niche partitioning. Some models highlight the importance of interactions among organisms (ecosystem engineering and predator-prey escalation) in promoting new lifestyles or eliminating existing ones. These models reflect processes that were not mutually exclusive; rigorous analyses will continue to reveal their applicability to episodes in metazoan history. PMID:21813550

  12. Modelling the ecological–functional diversification of marine Metazoa on geological time scales

    PubMed Central

    Bush, Andrew M.; Novack-Gottshall, Philip M.

    2012-01-01

    The ecological traits and functional capabilities of marine animals have changed significantly since their origin in the late Precambrian. These changes can be analysed quantitatively using multi-dimensional parameter spaces in which the ecological lifestyles of species are represented by particular combinations of parameter values. Here, we present models that describe the filling of this multi-dimensional ‘ecospace’ by ecological lifestyles during metazoan diversification. These models reflect varying assumptions about the processes that drove ecological diversification; they contrast diffusive expansion with driven expansion and niche conservatism with niche partitioning. Some models highlight the importance of interactions among organisms (ecosystem engineering and predator–prey escalation) in promoting new lifestyles or eliminating existing ones. These models reflect processes that were not mutually exclusive; rigorous analyses will continue to reveal their applicability to episodes in metazoan history. PMID:21813550

  13. Aeroacoustic simulation for phonation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Irwin, Jeffrey; Hanford, Amanda; Craven, Brent; Krane, Michael

    2011-11-01

    The phonation process occurs as air expelled from the lungs creates a pressure drop and a subsequent air flow across the larynx. The fluid-structure interaction between the turbulent air flow and oscillating vocal folds, combined with additional resonance in the oral and nasal cavities, creates much of what we hear in the human voice. As many voice-related disorders can be traced to irregular vocal tract shape or motion, it is important to understand in detail the physics involved in the phonation process. To numerically compute the physics of phonation, a solver must be able to accurately model acoustic airflow through a moving domain. The open-source CFD package OpenFOAM is currently being used to evaluate existing solvers against simple acoustic test cases, including an open-ended resonator and an expansion chamber, both of which utilize boundary conditions simulating acoustic sources as well as anechoic termination. Results of these test cases will be presented and compared with theory, and the future development of a three-dimensional vocal tract model and custom-mode acoustic solver will be discussed. Acknowledge support of NIH grant 5R01DC005642 and ARL E&F program.

  14. Assessing the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems by means of food-web models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coll, Marta; Navarro, Joan; Olson, Robert J.; Christensen, Villy

    2013-10-01

    We synthesized available information from ecological models at local and regional scales to obtain a global picture of the trophic position and ecological role of squids in marine ecosystems. First, static food-web models were used to analyze basic ecological parameters and indicators of squids: biomass, production, consumption, trophic level, omnivory index, predation mortality diet, and the ecological role. In addition, we developed various dynamic temporal simulations using two food-web models that included squids in their parameterization, and we investigated potential impacts of fishing pressure and environmental conditions for squid populations and, consequently, for marine food webs. Our results showed that squids occupy a large range of trophic levels in marine food webs and show a large trophic width, reflecting the versatility in their feeding behaviors and dietary habits. Models illustrated that squids are abundant organisms in marine ecosystems, and have high growth and consumption rates, but these parameters are highly variable because squids are adapted to a large variety of environmental conditions. Results also show that squids can have a large trophic impact on other elements of the food web, and top-down control from squids to their prey can be high. In addition, some squid species are important prey of apical predators and may be keystone species in marine food webs. In fact, we found strong interrelationships between neritic squids and the populations of their prey and predators in coastal and shelf areas, while the role of squids in open ocean and upwelling ecosystems appeared more constrained to a bottom-up impact on their predators. Therefore, large removals of squids will likely have large-scale effects on marine ecosystems. In addition, simulations confirm that squids are able to benefit from a general increase in fishing pressure, mainly due to predation release, and quickly respond to changes triggered by the environment. Squids may thus be very sensitive to the effects of fishing and climate change.

  15. Next generation dynamic global vegetation models: learning from community ecology (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheiter, S.; Higgins, S.; Langan, L.

    2013-12-01

    Dynamic global vegetation models are a powerful tool to project past, current and future vegetation patterns and the associated biogeochemical cycles. However, most models are limited by their representation of vegetation by using static and pre-defined plant functional types and by their simplistic representation of competition. We discuss how concepts from community assembly theory and coexistence theory can help to improve dynamic vegetation models. We present a trait- and individual-based dynamic vegetation model, the aDGVM2, that allows individual plants to adopt a unique combination of trait values. These traits define how individual plants grow, compete and reproduce under the given biotic and abiotic conditions. A genetic optimization algorithm is used to simulate trait inheritance and reproductive isolation between individuals. These model properties allow the assembly of plant communities that are adapted to biotic and abiotic conditions. We show (1) that the aDGVM2 can simulate coarse vegetation patterns in Africa, (2) that changes in the environmental conditions and disturbances strongly influence trait diversity and the assembled plant communities by influencing traits such as leaf phenology and carbon allocation patterns of individual plants and (3) that communities do not necessarily return to the initial state when environmental conditions return to the initial state. The aDGVM2 deals with functional diversity and competition fundamentally differently from current models and allows novel insights as to how vegetation may respond to climate change. We believe that the aDGVM2 approach could foster collaborations between research communities that focus on functional plant ecology, plant competition, plant physiology and Earth system science.

  16. Predicting Ecological Roles in the Rhizosphere Using Metabolome and Transportome Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang

    2015-01-01

    The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. However, new algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data. PMID:26332409

  17. Predicting ecological roles in the rhizosphere using metabolome and transportome modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang; Blanchard, Jeffrey L.

    2015-09-02

    The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. New algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.

  18. An introduction to enterprise modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Ostic, J.K.; Cannon, C.E.

    1996-09-01

    As part of an ongoing effort to continuously improve productivity, quality, and efficiency of both industry and Department of Energy enterprises, Los Alamos National Laboratory is investigating various manufacturing and business enterprise simulation methods. A number of enterprise simulation software models are being developed to enable engineering analysis of enterprise activities. In this document the authors define the scope of enterprise modeling and simulation efforts, and review recent work in enterprise simulation at Los Alamos National Laboratory as well as at other industrial, academic, and research institutions. References of enterprise modeling and simulation methods and a glossary of enterprise-related terms are provided.

  19. Modeling low-flow bedrock springs providing ecological habitats with climate change scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Levison, J.; Larocque, M.; Ouellet, M. A.

    2014-07-01

    Groundwater discharge areas, including low-flow bedrock aquifer springs, are ecologically important and can be impacted by climate change. The development of and results from a groundwater modeling study simulating fractured bedrock spring flow are presented. This was conducted to produce hydrological data for an ecohydrological study of an endangered species, Allegheny Mountain Dusky Salamanders (Desmognathus ochrophaeus), in southern Quebec, Canada. The groundwater modeling approach in terms of scale and complexity was strongly driven by the need to produce hydrological data for the related ecohydrological modeling. Flows at four springs at different elevations were simulated for recent past conditions (2006-2010) and for reference (1971-2000) and future (2041-2070) periods using precipitation and temperature data from ten climate scenarios. Statistical analyses of spring flow parameters including activity periods and duration of flow were conducted. Flow rates for the four simulated springs, located at different elevations, are predicted to increase between 2% and 46% and will be active (flowing) 1-2% longer in the future. A significant change (predominantly an increase) looking at the seasonality of the number of active days occurs in the winter (2-4.9%) and spring seasons (-0.6-6.5%). Greatest flow rates were produced from springs at elevations where sub-horizontal fractures intersect the ground surface. These results suggest an intensification of the spring activity at the study site in context of climate change by 2050, which provides a positive habitat outlook for the endangered salamanders residing in the springs for the future.

  20. Modeling and simulation of spacecraft power systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, J. R.; Cho, B. H.; Kim, S. J.; Lee, F. C.

    1987-01-01

    EASY5 modeling of a complete spacecraft power processing system is presented. Component models are developed, and several system models including a solar array switching system, a partially-shunted solar array system and COBE system are simulated. The power system's modes of operation, such as shunt mode, battery-charge mode, and battery-discharge mode, are simulated for a complete orbit cycle.

  1. Investment simulation model in electrical utility industry

    SciTech Connect

    Park, C.S.

    1980-01-01

    A simulation model is presented which would provide an effective investment tool with the decision makers in dealing with uncertainty inherent in the choice of constructing a power plant. A general simulation model based upon SLAM is developed and a case study is provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the model. 2 refs.

  2. Cognitive niches: an ecological model of strategy selection.

    PubMed

    Marewski, Julian N; Schooler, Lael J

    2011-07-01

    How do people select among different strategies to accomplish a given task? Across disciplines, the strategy selection problem represents a major challenge. We propose a quantitative model that predicts how selection emerges through the interplay among strategies, cognitive capacities, and the environment. This interplay carves out for each strategy a cognitive niche, that is, a limited number of situations in which the strategy can be applied, simplifying strategy selection. To illustrate our proposal, we consider selection in the context of 2 theories: the simple heuristics framework and the ACT-R (adaptive control of thought-rational) architecture of cognition. From the heuristics framework, we adopt the thesis that people make decisions by selecting from a repertoire of simple decision strategies that exploit regularities in the environment and draw on cognitive capacities, such as memory and time perception. ACT-R provides a quantitative theory of how these capacities adapt to the environment. In 14 simulations and 10 experiments, we consider the choice between strategies that operate on the accessibility of memories and those that depend on elaborate knowledge about the world. Based on Internet statistics, our model quantitatively predicts people's familiarity with and knowledge of real-world objects, the distributional characteristics of the associated speed of memory retrieval, and the cognitive niches of classic decision strategies, including those of the fluency, recognition, integration, lexicographic, and sequential-sampling heuristics. In doing so, the model specifies when people will be able to apply different strategies and how accurate, fast, and effortless people's decisions will be. PMID:21744978

  3. Theory, Modeling, and Simulation of Semiconductor Lasers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ning, Cun-Zheng; Saini, Subbash (Technical Monitor)

    1998-01-01

    Semiconductor lasers play very important roles in many areas of information technology. In this talk, I will first give an overview of semiconductor laser theory. This will be followed by a description of different models and their shortcomings in modeling and simulation. Our recent efforts in constructing a fully space and time resolved simulation model will then be described. Simulation results based on our model will be presented. Finally the effort towards a self-consistent and comprehensive simulation capability for the opto-electronics integrated circuits (OEICs) will be briefly reviewed.

  4. Evaluating uncertainty in stochastic simulation models

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.D.

    1998-02-01

    This paper discusses fundamental concepts of uncertainty analysis relevant to both stochastic simulation models and deterministic models. A stochastic simulation model, called a simulation model, is a stochastic mathematical model that incorporates random numbers in the calculation of the model prediction. Queuing models are familiar simulation models in which random numbers are used for sampling interarrival and service times. Another example of simulation models is found in probabilistic risk assessments where atmospheric dispersion submodels are used to calculate movement of material. For these models, randomness comes not from the sampling of times but from the sampling of weather conditions, which are described by a frequency distribution of atmospheric variables like wind speed and direction as a function of height above ground. A common characteristic of simulation models is that single predictions, based on one interarrival time or one weather condition, for example, are not nearly as informative as the probability distribution of possible predictions induced by sampling the simulation variables like time and weather condition. The language of model analysis is often general and vague, with terms having mostly intuitive meaning. The definition and motivations for some of the commonly used terms and phrases offered in this paper lead to an analysis procedure based on prediction variance. In the following mathematical abstraction the authors present a setting for model analysis, relate practical objectives to mathematical terms, and show how two reasonable premises lead to a viable analysis strategy.

  5. Modelling and simulation of a heat exchanger

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xia, Lei; Deabreu-Garcia, J. Alex; Hartley, Tom T.

    1991-01-01

    Two models for two different control systems are developed for a parallel heat exchanger. First by spatially lumping a heat exchanger model, a good approximate model which has a high system order is produced. Model reduction techniques are applied to these to obtain low order models that are suitable for dynamic analysis and control design. The simulation method is discussed to ensure a valid simulation result.

  6. Pathogen survival trajectories: an eco-environmental approach to the modeling of human campylobacteriosis ecology.

    PubMed Central

    Skelly, Chris; Weinstein, Phil

    2003-01-01

    Campylobacteriosis, like many human diseases, has its own ecology in which the propagation of human infection and disease depends on pathogen survival and finding new hosts in order to replicate and sustain the pathogen population. The complexity of this process, a process common to other enteric pathogens, has hampered control efforts. Many unknowns remain, resulting in a poorly understood disease ecology. To provide structure to these unknowns and help direct further research and intervention, we propose an eco-environmental modeling approach for campylobacteriosis. This modeling approach follows the pathogen population as it moves through the environments that define the physical structure of its ecology. In this paper, we term the ecologic processes and environments through which these populations move "pathogen survival trajectories." Although such a modeling approach could have veterinary applications, our emphasis is on human campylobacteriosis and focuses on human exposures to Campylobacter through feces, food, and aquatic environments. The pathogen survival trajectories that lead to human exposure include ecologic filters that limit population size, e.g., cooking food to kill Campylobacter. Environmental factors that influence the size of the pathogen reservoirs include temperature, nutrient availability, and moisture availability during the period of time the pathogen population is moving through the environment between infected and susceptible hosts. We anticipate that the modeling approach proposed here will work symbiotically with traditional epidemiologic and microbiologic research to help guide and evaluate the acquisition of new knowledge about the ecology, eventual intervention, and control of campylobacteriosis. PMID:12515674

  7. Simulating Energy, Water and Carbon Fluxes at the Shortgrass Steppe Long Term Ecological Research (LTER) Site

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beltran-Przekurat, A. B.; Pielke, R. A.; Morgan, J. A.; Burke, I. C.

    2005-12-01

    Coupled atmospheric-biospheric models are a particularly valuable tool for studying the potential effects of land-use and land-cover changes on the near-surface atmosphere since the atmosphere and biosphere are allowed to dynamically interact through the surface and canopy energy balance. GEMRAMS is a coupled atmospheric-biospheric model comprised of an atmospheric model, RAMS, and an ecophysiological process-based model, GEMTM. In the first part of this study, the soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer (SVAT) scheme, LEAF2, from RAMS, coupled with GEMTM, are used to simulate energy, water and carbon fluxes over different cropping systems (winter wheat and irrigated corn) and over a mixed C3/C4 shortgrass prairie located at the USDA-ARS Central Plains Experimental Range near Nunn, Colorado, the LTER Shortgrass Steppe site. The new SVAT scheme, GEMLEAF, is forced with air temperature and humidity, wind speed and photosynthetic active radiation (PAR). Calculated canopy temperature and relative humidity, soil moisture and temperature and PAR are used to compute sunlit/shaded leaf photosynthesis (for C3 and C4 plant types) and respiration. Photosynthate is allocated to leaves, shoots, roots and reproductive organs with variable partition coefficients, which are functions of soil water conditions. As water stress increases, the fraction of photosynthate allocated to root growth increases. Leaf area index (LAI) is estimated from daily leaf biomass growth, using the vegetation-prescribed specific leaf area. Canopy conductance, computed and based on photosynthesis and relative humidity, is used to calculate latent heat flux. Simulated energy and CO2 fluxes are compared to observations collected using Bowen ratio flux towers during two growing seasons. Seasonality of the fluxes reflecting different plant phenologies agrees well with the observed patterns. In the second part of this study, simulations for two clear days are performed with GEMRAMS over a model domain centered at the SGS site. Simulated spatial differences in the energy fluxes can be associated with the highly heterogeneous landscape in this area.

  8. A Generic Multibody Parachute Simulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Neuhaus, Jason Richard; Kenney, Patrick Sean

    2006-01-01

    Flight simulation of dynamic atmospheric vehicles with parachute systems is a complex task that is not easily modeled in many simulation frameworks. In the past, the performance of vehicles with parachutes was analyzed by simulations dedicated to parachute operations and were generally not used for any other portion of the vehicle flight trajectory. This approach required multiple simulation resources to completely analyze the performance of the vehicle. Recently, improved software engineering practices and increased computational power have allowed a single simulation to model the entire flight profile of a vehicle employing a parachute.

  9. Using observation-level random effects to model overdispersion in count data in ecology and evolution

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Overdispersion is common in models of count data in ecology and evolutionary biology, and can occur due to missing covariates, non-independent (aggregated) data, or an excess frequency of zeroes (zero-inflation). Accounting for overdispersion in such models is vital, as failing to do so can lead to biased parameter estimates, and false conclusions regarding hypotheses of interest. Observation-level random effects (OLRE), where each data point receives a unique level of a random effect that models the extra-Poisson variation present in the data, are commonly employed to cope with overdispersion in count data. However studies investigating the efficacy of observation-level random effects as a means to deal with overdispersion are scarce. Here I use simulations to show that in cases where overdispersion is caused by random extra-Poisson noise, or aggregation in the count data, observation-level random effects yield more accurate parameter estimates compared to when overdispersion is simply ignored. Conversely, OLRE fail to reduce bias in zero-inflated data, and in some cases increase bias at high levels of overdispersion. There was a positive relationship between the magnitude of overdispersion and the degree of bias in parameter estimates. Critically, the simulations reveal that failing to account for overdispersion in mixed models can erroneously inflate measures of explained variance (r2), which may lead to researchers overestimating the predictive power of variables of interest. This work suggests use of observation-level random effects provides a simple and robust means to account for overdispersion in count data, but also that their ability to minimise bias is not uniform across all types of overdispersion and must be applied judiciously. PMID:25320683

  10. Assessment of ecological security in Changbai Mountain Area, China based on MODIS data and PSR model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Fang; Wang, Ping; Qi, Xin

    2014-11-01

    The assessment of ecological security is to identify the stability of the ecosystem, and to distinguish the capacity of sustainable health and integrity under different kinds of risks. Using MODIS time series images from 2000 to 2008 as the main data source, the derived parameters including NDVI, the ratio of NPP and GPP, forest coverage, landscape diversity and ecological flexibility etc. are integrated to depict the properties of the ecological system. The pressure and response indicators such as population density, industrial production intensity, arable land per capita, fertilizer consumption, highway density, agricultural mechanization level and GDP per capita are also collected and managed by ArcGIS. The `pressure-state-response' (PSR) conceptual model and a hierarchical weighted model are applied to construct an evaluation framework and determine the state of ecological security in Changbai Mountain area. The results show that the ecological security index (ESI) values in 2000 and 2008 were 5.75 and 5.59 respectively, indicating the ecological security state in Changbai Mountain area degraded. In 2000, the area of in good state of ecological security was 21901km2, occupying 28.96% of the study region. 48201 km2 of the land were with moderate level. The grades of ESI in Dunhua, Longjing and Antu decreased from moderate to poor. Though the ESI value of Meihekou increased by 0.12 during 2000-2008, it was still in a very poor state of ecological security induced by intensive human activities. The ecological security situation of Changbai Mountain region was not optimistic on the whole.

  11. Ecological modeling for the extrapolation of ecotoxicological effects measured during in situ assays in Gammarus.

    PubMed

    Coulaud, Romain; Geffard, Olivier; Coquillat, Amandine; Quéau, Hervé; Charles, Sandrine; Chaumot, Arnaud

    2014-06-01

    Evaluating the effects of chemical contamination on populations and ecological communities still constitutes a challenging necessity in environmental management. However, the toxic effects of contaminants are commonly measured by means of organism-level responses. Linking such effects measures with ecological models is a promising way to determine population-level impacts. In this way, population models are currently increasingly used in predictive risk assessment procedures, but their use in environmental diagnostic framework remains limited due to their lack of ecological realism. The present study with the crustacean Gammarus fossarum, a sentinel species in freshwater monitoring, combines a dual field and laboratory experimental approach with a population modeling framework. In this way, we developed an ecologically relevant periodic matrix population model for Gammarus. This model allowed us to capture the population dynamics in the field, and to understand the particular pattern of demographic sensitivities induced by Gammarus life-history phenology. The model we developed provided a robust population-level assessment of in situ-based effects measures recorded during a biomonitoring program on a French watershed impacted by past mining activities. Thus, our study illustrates the potential of population modeling when seeking to decipher the role of environmental toxic contamination in ecological perturbations. PMID:24805228

  12. Stream ecological condition modeling at the reach and the hydrologic unit (HUC) scale: A look at model performance and mapping

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Hydrography and updated Watershed Boundary Datasets provide a ready-made framework for hydrographic modeling. Determining particular stream reaches or watersheds in poor ecological condition across large regions is an essential goal for monitoring and management. T...

  13. Teaching Population Ecology Modeling by Means of the Hewlett-Packard 9100A.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuinstra, Kenneth E.

    The incorporation of mathematical modeling experiences into an undergraduate biology course is described. Detailed expositions of three models used to teach concepts of population ecology are presented, including introductions to major concepts, user instructions, trial data and problem sets. The models described are: 1) an exponential/logistic…

  14. Supervision in School Psychology: The Developmental/Ecological/Problem-Solving Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Dennis J.; Cruise, Tracy K.; Huber, Brenda J.; Swerdlik, Mark E.; Newman, Daniel S.

    2014-01-01

    Effective supervision models guide the supervisory relationship and supervisory tasks leading to reflective and purposeful practice. The Developmental/Ecological/Problem-Solving (DEP) Model provides a contemporary framework for supervision specific to school psychology. Designed for the school psychology internship, the DEP Model is also…

  15. Supervision in School Psychology: The Developmental/Ecological/Problem-Solving Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simon, Dennis J.; Cruise, Tracy K.; Huber, Brenda J.; Swerdlik, Mark E.; Newman, Daniel S.

    2014-01-01

    Effective supervision models guide the supervisory relationship and supervisory tasks leading to reflective and purposeful practice. The Developmental/Ecological/Problem-Solving (DEP) Model provides a contemporary framework for supervision specific to school psychology. Designed for the school psychology internship, the DEP Model is also…

  16. Conceptual ecological models to support detection of ecological change on Alaska National Wildlife Refuges

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woodward, Andrea; Beever, Erik A.

    2011-01-01

    More than 31 million hectares of land are protected and managed in 16 refuges by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in Alaska. The vastness and isolation of Alaskan refuges give rise to relatively intact and complete ecosystems. The potential for these lands to provide habitat for trust species is likely to be altered, however, due to global climate change, which is having dramatic effects at high latitudes. The ability of USFWS to effectively manage these lands in the future will be enhanced by a regional inventory and monitoring program that integrates and supplements monitoring currently being implemented by individual refuges. Conceptual models inform monitoring programs in a number of ways, including summarizing important ecosystem components and processes as well as facilitating communication, discussion and debate about the nature of the system and important management issues. This process can lead to hypotheses regarding future changes, likely results of alternative management actions, identification of monitoring indicators, and ultimately, interpretation of monitoring results. As a first step towards developing a monitoring program, the 16 refuges in Alaska each created a conceptual model of their refuge and the landscape context. Models include prominent ecosystem components, drivers, and processes by which components are linked or altered. The Alaska refuge system also recognizes that designing and implementing monitoring at regional and ecoregional extents has numerous scientific, fiscal, logistical, and political advantages over monitoring conducted exclusively at refuge-specific scales. Broad-scale monitoring is particularly advantageous for examining phenomena such as climate change because effects are best interpreted at broader spatial extents. To enable an ecoregional perspective, a rationale was developed for deriving ecoregional boundaries for four ecoregions (Polar, Interior Alaska, Bering Coast, and North Pacific Coast) from the Unified Ecoregions of Alaska. Ecoregional models were then developed to illustrate resources and processes that operate at spatial scales larger than individual refuges within each ecoregion. Conceptual models also were developed for adjacent marine areas, designated as the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Beaufort-Chukchi Sea Marine Ecoregions. Although many more conceptual models will be required to support development of a regional monitoring program, these definitions of ecoregions and associated conceptual models are an important foundation.

  17. VHDL simulation with access to transistor models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gibson, J.

    1991-01-01

    Hardware description languages such as VHDL have evolved to aid in the design of systems with large numbers of elements and a wide range of electronic and logical abstractions. For high performance circuits, behavioral models may not be able to efficiently include enough detail to give designers confidence in a simulation's accuracy. One option is to provide a link between the VHDL environment and a transistor level simulation environment. The coupling of the Vantage Analysis Systems VHDL simulator and the NOVA simulator provides the combination of VHDL modeling and transistor modeling.

  18. Integrating human and natural systems in community psychology: an ecological model of stewardship behavior.

    PubMed

    Moskell, Christine; Allred, Shorna Broussard

    2013-03-01

    Community psychology (CP) research on the natural environment lacks a theoretical framework for analyzing the complex relationship between human systems and the natural world. We introduce other academic fields concerned with the interactions between humans and the natural environment, including environmental sociology and coupled human and natural systems. To demonstrate how the natural environment can be included within CP's ecological framework, we propose an ecological model of urban forest stewardship action. Although ecological models of behavior in CP have previously modeled health behaviors, we argue that these frameworks are also applicable to actions that positively influence the natural environment. We chose the environmental action of urban forest stewardship because cities across the United States are planting millions of trees and increased citizen participation in urban tree planting and stewardship will be needed to sustain the benefits provided by urban trees. We used the framework of an ecological model of behavior to illustrate multiple levels of factors that may promote or hinder involvement in urban forest stewardship actions. The implications of our model for the development of multi-level ecological interventions to foster stewardship actions are discussed, as well as directions for future research to further test and refine the model. PMID:22722897

  19. Crop Simulation Models and Decision Support Systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The first computer simulation models for agricultural systems were developed in the 1970s. These early models simulated potential production for major crops as a function of weather conditions, especially temperature and solar radiation. At a later stage, the water component was added to be able to ...

  20. A Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model for Developing Ecological Site Descriptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nearing, M. A.; Hernandez, M.; Armendariz, G.; Barker, S.; Williams, C. J.

    2014-12-01

    Predicting soil erosion is common practice in natural resource management for assessing the effects of management practices and control techniques of soil productivity, sediment delivery and off site water quality. The Rangeland Hydrology and Erosion Model (RHEM) was designed for this purpose. RHEM is an event-based model that estimates runoff, erosion, and sediment delivery rates and volumes at the spatial scale of the hillslope and the temporal scale of as single rainfall event. It represents erosion processes under normal and fire-impacted rangeland conditions. Moreover, it adopts a new splash erosion and thin sheet -flow transport equation developed from rangeland data, and it links the model hydrologic and erosion parameters with rangeland plant community by providing a new system of parameter estimation equations based on 204 plots at 49 rangeland sites distributed across 15 western U.S. states. Testing was done using long-term runoff and erosion data from small semi-aridland catchments. One of our goals with this project is to develop a framework for incorporating key ecohydrologic information/relationships in Ecological Site Descriptions and thereby enhanced utility of Ecological Site Descriptions s for guiding management. These key ecohydrologic relationships govern the ecologic resilience of the various states and community phases on many rangeland ecological sites and are strongly affected by management practices, land use, and disturbances. However, ecohydrologic data and relationships are often missing in Ecological Site Descriptions and resilience-based state-and-transition models. In this study we applied the RHEM model to data from multiple points in several ecological sites in Arizona, New Mexico, and Utah to assess the utility of the model for informing these Ecological Site Descriptions.

  1. Resist profile simulation with fast lithography model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Yan-Ying; Chou, Chih-Shiang; Tang, Yu-Po; Huang, Wen-Chun; Liu, Ru-Gun; Gau, Tsai-Sheng

    2014-03-01

    A traditional approach to construct a fast lithographic model is to match wafer top-down SEM images, contours and/or gauge CDs with a TCC model plus some simple resist representation. This modeling method has been proven and is extensively used for OPC modeling. As the technology moves forward, this traditional approach has become insufficient in regard to lithography weak point detection, etching bias prediction, etc. The drawback of this approach is from metrology and simulation. First, top-down SEM is only good for acquiring planar CD information. Some 3D metrology such as cross-section SEM or AFM is necessary to obtain the true resist profile. Second, the TCC modeling approach is only suitable for planar image simulation. In order to model the resist profile, full 3D image simulation is needed. Even though there are many rigorous simulators capable of catching the resist profile very well, none of them is feasible for full-chip application due to the tremendous consumption of computational resource. The authors have proposed a quasi-3D image simulation method in the previous study [1], which is suitable for full-chip simulation with the consideration of sidewall angles, to improve the model accuracy of planar models. In this paper, the quasi-3D image simulation is extended to directly model the resist profile with AFM and/or cross-section SEM data. Resist weak points detected by the model generated with this 3D approach are verified on the wafer.

  2. Graphical simulation environments for modelling and simulation of integrative physiology.

    PubMed

    Mangourova, Violeta; Ringwood, John; Van Vliet, Bruce

    2011-06-01

    Guyton's original integrative physiology model was a milestone in integrative physiology, combining significant physiological knowledge with an engineering perspective to develop a computational diagrammatic model. It is still used in research and teaching, with a small number of variants on the model also in circulation. However, though new research has added significantly to the knowledge represented by Guyton's model, and significant advances have been made in computing and simulation software, an accepted common platform to integrate this new knowledge has not emerged. This paper discusses the issues in the selection of a suitable platform, together with a number of current possibilities, and suggests a graphical computing environment for modelling and simulation. By way of example, a validated version of Guyton's 1992 model, implemented in the ubiquitous Simulink environment, is presented which provides a hierarchical representation amenable to extension and suitable for teaching and research uses. It is designed to appeal to the biomedical engineer and physiologist alike. PMID:20576310

  3. Automated experimentation in ecological networks

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background In ecological networks, natural communities are studied from a complex systems perspective by representing interactions among species within them in the form of a graph, which is in turn analysed using mathematical tools. Topological features encountered in complex networks have been proved to provide the systems they represent with interesting attributes such as robustness and stability, which in ecological systems translates into the ability of communities to resist perturbations of different kinds. A focus of research in community ecology is on understanding the mechanisms by which these complex networks of interactions among species in a community arise. We employ an agent-based approach to model ecological processes operating at the species' interaction level for the study of the emergence of organisation in ecological networks. Results We have designed protocols of interaction among agents in a multi-agent system based on ecological processes occurring at the interaction level between species in plant-animal mutualistic communities. Interaction models for agents coordination thus engineered facilitate the emergence of network features such as those found in ecological networks of interacting species, in our artificial societies of agents. Conclusions Agent based models developed in this way facilitate the automation of the design an execution of simulation experiments that allow for the exploration of diverse behavioural mechanisms believed to be responsible for community organisation in ecological communities. This automated way of conducting experiments empowers the study of ecological networks by exploiting the expressive power of interaction models specification in agent systems. PMID:21554669

  4. It is the economy, stupid! Projecting the fate of fish populations using ecological-economic modeling.

    PubMed

    Quaas, Martin F; Reusch, Thorsten B H; Schmidt, Jörn O; Tahvonen, Olli; Voss, Rudi

    2016-01-01

    Four marine fish species are among the most important on the world market: cod, salmon, tuna, and sea bass. While the supply of North American and European markets for two of these species - Atlantic salmon and European sea bass - mainly comes from fish farming, Atlantic cod and tunas are mainly caught from wild stocks. We address the question what will be the status of these wild stocks in the midterm future, in the year 2048, to be specific. Whereas the effects of climate change and ecological driving forces on fish stocks have already gained much attention, our prime interest is in studying the effects of changing economic drivers, as well as the impact of variable management effectiveness. Using a process-based ecological-economic multispecies optimization model, we assess the future stock status under different scenarios of change. We simulate (i) technological progress in fishing, (ii) increasing demand for fish, and (iii) increasing supply of farmed fish, as well as the interplay of these driving forces under different scenarios of (limited) fishery management effectiveness. We find that economic change has a substantial effect on fish populations. Increasing aquaculture production can dampen the fishing pressure on wild stocks, but this effect is likely to be overwhelmed by increasing demand and technological progress, both increasing fishing pressure. The only solution to avoid collapse of the majority of stocks is institutional change to improve management effectiveness significantly above the current state. We conclude that full recognition of economic drivers of change will be needed to successfully develop an integrated ecosystem management and to sustain the wild fish stocks until 2048 and beyond. PMID:26348787

  5. Modeling and simulation of fire spreading through the activity tracking paradigm

    SciTech Connect

    Muzy,; Nutaro, James J; Zeigler, Bernard P; Coquillard,

    2008-01-01

    Modeling and simulation is essential for understanding complex ecological systems. However, knowledge of the structure and behavior of these systems is limited, and models must be revised frequently as our understanding of a system improves. Moreover, the dynamic, spatial distribution of activity in very large systems necessitates mapping natural mechanisms as logically as possible onto computer structures. This paper describes theoretical and algorithmic tools for building component-based models and simulations of dynamic spatial phenomena. These methods focus attention on and exploit the irregular distribution of activity in ecological processes. We use the DEVS formalism as the basis for a component based approach to modeling spatially distributed systems. DEVS is a mathematical theory of discrete-event systems that is well suited for describing large systems that are described by small parts with irregular, short-range interactions. This event-based approach to modeling leads naturally to efficient simulations algorithms which focus on the active parts of a large model. Ecological modeling benefits from these efficient the simulation algorithms and the reusability of the model s basic components. Our event-based method is demonstrated with a physics-based model of fire spread.

  6. Modelling channel incision and drainage basin evolution with a multi-scale simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anders, N. S.; Seijmonsbergen, A. C.; Bouten, W.

    2009-04-01

    In this research we present a new and multi-scale approach to simulate channel incision and drainage basin evolution. A vector bedrock channel incision model (CIM) dynamically simulates the development of a longitudinal river profile at a fine scale. The CIM is combined with a grid cell-based reaction-diffusion erosion model to incorporate hillslope development at a broad scale, as a response to an incising fluvial network of bedrock river channels. The combined simulation model is applied to the post-glacial landscape evolution of a geologically complex Alpine catchment. High resolution laser altimetry data is used to reconstruct the catchment's late-glacial topography that served as initial model conditions for a simulation towards the present. Longitudinal and cross sectional profiles extracted from model output and the current elevation data are compared to evaluate the model performance. The combined model is time-efficient and is able to realistically adapt to contrasting geological substrata, including knick-point recession and a variable hillslope development. Dynamic geomorphological simulation models, in combination with high resolution datasets, facilitate research of complex and difficult-to-access mountainous terrain at greater detail than before. It potentially paves the way for more efficient landscape evolution research and can contribute to increasing the understanding of the functioning of geo-ecological systems.

  7. Carbon sequestration by patch fertilization: A comprehensive assessment using coupled physical-ecological-biogeochemical models

    SciTech Connect

    Sarmiento, Jorge L.; Gnanadesikan, Anand; Gruber, Nicolas; Jin, Xin; Armstrong, Robert

    2007-06-21

    This final report summarizes research undertaken collaboratively between Princeton University, the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory on the Princeton University campus, the State University of New York at Stony Brook, and the University of California, Los Angeles between September 1, 2000, and November 30, 2006, to do fundamental research on ocean iron fertilization as a means to enhance the net oceanic uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. The approach we proposed was to develop and apply a suite of coupled physical-ecological-biogeochemical models in order to (i) determine to what extent enhanced carbon fixation from iron fertilization will lead to an increase in the oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 and how long this carbon will remain sequestered (efficiency), and (ii) examine the changes in ocean ecology and natural biogeochemical cycles resulting from iron fertilization (consequences). The award was funded in two separate three-year installments: September 1, 2000 to November 30, 2003, for a project entitled “Ocean carbon sequestration by fertilization: An integrated biogeochemical assessment.” A final report was submitted for this at the end of 2003 and is included here as Appendix 1; and, December 1, 2003 to November 30, 2006, for a follow-on project under the same grant number entitled “Carbon sequestration by patch fertilization: A comprehensive assessment using coupled physical-ecological-biogeochemical models.” This report focuses primarily on the progress we made during the second period of funding subsequent to the work reported on in Appendix 1. When we began this project, we were thinking almost exclusively in terms of long-term fertilization over large regions of the ocean such as the Southern Ocean, with much of our focus being on how ocean circulation and biogeochemical cycling would interact to control the response to a given fertilization scenario. Our research on these types of scenarios, which was carried out largely during the first three years of our project, led to several major new insights on the interaction between ocean biogeochemistry and circulation. This work, which is described in the following Section II on “Large scale fertilization,” has continued to appear in the literature over the past few years, including two high visibility papers in Nature. Early on in the first three years of our project, it became clear that small "patch-scale" fertilizations over limited regions of order 100 km diameter were much more likely than large scale fertilization, and we carried out a series of idealized patch fertilization simulations reported on in Gnanadesikan et al. (2003). Based on this paper and other results we had obtained by the end of our first three-year grant, we identified a number of important issues that needed to be addressed in the second three-year period of this grant. Section III on “patch fertilization” discusses the major findings of this phase of our research, which is described in two major manuscripts that will be submitted for publication in the near future. This research makes use of new more realistic ocean ecosystem and iron cycling models than our first paper on this topic. We have several major new insights into what controls the efficiency of iron fertilization in the ocean. Section IV on “model development” summarizes a set of papers describing the progress that we made on improving the ecosystem models we use for our iron fertilization simulations.

  8. Metabolic ecology.

    PubMed

    Humphries, Murray M; McCann, Kevin S

    2014-01-01

    Ecological theory that is grounded in metabolic currencies and constraints offers the potential to link ecological outcomes to biophysical processes across multiple scales of organization. The metabolic theory of ecology (MTE) has emphasized the potential for metabolism to serve as a unified theory of ecology, while focusing primarily on the size and temperature dependence of whole-organism metabolic rates. Generalizing metabolic ecology requires extending beyond prediction and application of standardized metabolic rates to theory focused on how energy moves through ecological systems. A bibliometric and network analysis of recent metabolic ecology literature reveals a research network characterized by major clusters focused on MTE, foraging theory, bioenergetics, trophic status, and generalized patterns and predictions. This generalized research network, which we refer to as metabolic ecology, can be considered to include the scaling, temperature and stoichiometric models forming the core of MTE, as well as bioenergetic equations, foraging theory, life-history allocation models, consumer-resource equations, food web theory and energy-based macroecology models that are frequently employed in ecological literature. We conclude with six points we believe to be important to the advancement and integration of metabolic ecology, including nomination of a second fundamental equation, complementary to the first fundamental equation offered by the MTE. PMID:24028511

  9. Ecological niche modeling of sympatric krill predators around Marguerite Bay, Western Antarctic Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedlaender, Ari S.; Johnston, David W.; Fraser, William R.; Burns, Jennifer; Halpin, Patrick N.; Costa, Daniel P.

    2011-07-01

    Adélie penguins ( Pygoscelis adeliae), carabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophagus), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae), and minke whales ( Balaenoptera bonaernsis) are found in the waters surrounding the Western Antarctic Peninsula. Each species relies primarily on Antarctic krill ( Euphausia superba) and has physiological constraints and foraging behaviors that dictate their ecological niches. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between sympatric krill predators is critical to understanding and predicting the impacts on climate-driven changes to the Antarctic marine ecosystem. To explore ecological relationships amongst sympatric krill predators, we developed ecological niche models using a maximum entropy modeling approach (Maxent) that allows the integration of data collected by a variety of means (e.g. satellite-based locations and visual observations). We created spatially explicit probability distributions for the four krill predators in fall 2001 and 2002 in conjunction with a suite of environmental variables. We find areas within Marguerite Bay with high krill predator occurrence rates or biological hot spots. We find the modeled ecological niches for Adélie penguins and crabeater seals may be affected by their physiological needs to haul-out on substrate. Thus, their distributions may be less dictated by proximity to prey and more so by physical features that over time provide adequate access to prey. Humpback and minke whales, being fully marine and having greater energetic demands, occupy ecological niches more directly proximate to prey. We also find evidence to suggest that the amount of overlap between modeled niches is relatively low, even for species with similar energetic requirements. In a rapidly changing and variable environment, our modeling work shows little indication that krill predators maintain similar ecological niches across years around Marguerite Bay. Given the amount of variability in the marine environment around the Antarctic Peninsula and how this affects the local abundance of prey, there may be consequences for krill predators with historically little niche overlap to increase the potential for interspecific competition for shared prey resources.

  10. Using circuit theory to model connectivity in ecology, evolution, and conservation.

    PubMed

    McRae, Brad H; Dickson, Brett G; Keitt, Timothy H; Shah, Viral B

    2008-10-01

    Connectivity among populations and habitats is important for a wide range of ecological processes. Understanding, preserving, and restoring connectivity in complex landscapes requires connectivity models and metrics that are reliable, efficient, and process based. We introduce a new class of ecological connectivity models based in electrical circuit theory. Although they have been applied in other disciplines, circuit-theoretic connectivity models are new to ecology. They offer distinct advantages over common analytic connectivity models, including a theoretical basis in random walk theory and an ability to evaluate contributions of multiple dispersal pathways. Resistance, current, and voltage calculated across graphs or raster grids can be related to ecological processes (such as individual movement and gene flow) that occur across large population networks or landscapes. Efficient algorithms can quickly solve networks with millions of nodes, or landscapes with millions of raster cells. Here we review basic circuit theory, discuss relationships between circuit and random walk theories, and describe applications in ecology, evolution, and conservation. We provide examples of how circuit models can be used to predict movement patterns and fates of random walkers in complex landscapes and to identify important habitat patches and movement corridors for conservation planning. PMID:18959309

  11. OCAM - A CELSS modeling tool: Description and results. [Object-oriented Controlled Ecological Life Support System Analysis and Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Drysdale, Alan; Thomas, Mark; Fresa, Mark; Wheeler, Ray

    1992-01-01

    Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) technology is critical to the Space Exploration Initiative. NASA's Kennedy Space Center has been performing CELSS research for several years, developing data related to CELSS design. We have developed OCAM (Object-oriented CELSS Analysis and Modeling), a CELSS modeling tool, and have used this tool to evaluate CELSS concepts, using this data. In using OCAM, a CELSS is broken down into components, and each component is modeled as a combination of containers, converters, and gates which store, process, and exchange carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen on a daily basis. Multiple crops and plant types can be simulated. Resource recovery options modeled include combustion, leaching, enzyme treatment, aerobic or anaerobic digestion, and mushroom and fish growth. Results include printouts and time-history graphs of total system mass, biomass, carbon dioxide, and oxygen quantities; energy consumption; and manpower requirements. The contributions of mass, energy, and manpower to system cost have been analyzed to compare configurations and determine appropriate research directions.

  12. Modeling the growth dynamics of four candidate crops for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Volk, Tyler

    1987-01-01

    The production of food for human life support for advanced space missions will require the management of many different crops. The research to design these food production capabilities along with the waste management to recycle human metabolic wastes and inedible plant components are parts of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS). Since complete operating CELSS were not yet built, a useful adjunct to the research developing the various pieces of a CELSS are system simulation models that can examine what is currently known about the possible assembly of subsystems into a full CELSS. The growth dynamics of four crops (wheat, soybeans, potatoes, and lettuce) are examined for their general similarities and differences within the context of their important effects upon the dynamics of the gases, liquids, and solids in the CELSS. Data for the four crops currently under active research in the CELSS program using high-production hydroponics are presented. Two differential equations are developed and applied to the general characteristics of each crop growth pattern. Model parameters are determined by closely approximating each crop's data.

  13. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model

    PubMed Central

    Simms, Andrew M.; Daggett, Valerie

    2011-01-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost—significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server. PMID:23204646

  14. Protein Simulation Data in the Relational Model.

    PubMed

    Simms, Andrew M; Daggett, Valerie

    2012-10-01

    High performance computing is leading to unprecedented volumes of data. Relational databases offer a robust and scalable model for storing and analyzing scientific data. However, these features do not come without a cost-significant design effort is required to build a functional and efficient repository. Modeling protein simulation data in a relational database presents several challenges: the data captured from individual simulations are large, multi-dimensional, and must integrate with both simulation software and external data sites. Here we present the dimensional design and relational implementation of a comprehensive data warehouse for storing and analyzing molecular dynamics simulations using SQL Server. PMID:23204646

  15. Range bagging: a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data

    PubMed Central

    Drake, John M.

    2015-01-01

    The ecological niche is the set of environments in which a population of a species can persist without introduction of individuals from other locations. A good mathematical or computational representation of the niche is a prerequisite to addressing many questions in ecology, biogeography, evolutionary biology and conservation. A particularly challenging question for ecological niche modelling is the problem of presence-only modelling. That is, can an ecological niche be identified from records drawn only from the set of niche environments without records from non-niche environments for comparison? Here, I introduce a new method for ecological niche modelling from presence-only data called range bagging. Range bagging draws on the concept of a species' environmental range, but was inspired by the empirical performance of ensemble learning algorithms in other areas of ecological research. This paper extends the concept of environmental range to multiple dimensions and shows that range bagging is computationally feasible even when the number of environmental dimensions is large. The target of the range bagging base learner is an environmental tolerance of the species in a projection of its niche and is therefore an ecologically interpretable property of a species' biological requirements. The computational complexity of range bagging is linear in the number of examples, which compares favourably with the main alternative, Qhull. In conclusion, range bagging appears to be a reasonable choice for niche modelling in applications in which a presence-only method is desired and may provide a solution to problems in other disciplines where one-class classification is required, such as outlier detection and concept learning. PMID:25948612

  16. Integrating ecological risk assessments across levels of organization using the Franklin-Noss model of biodiversity

    SciTech Connect

    Brugger, K.E.; Tiebout, H.M. III

    1994-12-31

    Wildlife toxicologists pioneered methodologies for assessing ecological risk to nontarget species. Historically, ecological risk assessments (ERAS) focused on a limited array of species and were based on a relatively few population-level endpoints (mortality, reproduction). Currently, risk assessment models are becoming increasingly complex that factor in multi-species interactions (across trophic levels) and utilize an increasingly diverse number of ecologically significant endpoints. This trend suggests the increasing importance of safeguarding not only populations of individual species, but also the overall integrity of the larger biotic systems that support them. In this sense, ERAs are in alignment with Conservation Biology, an applied science of ecological knowledge used to conserve biodiversity. A theoretical conservation biology model could be incorporated in ERAs to quantify impacts to biodiversity (structure, function or composition across levels of biological organization). The authors suggest that the Franklin-Noss model for evaluating biodiversity, with its nested, hierarchical approach, may provide a suitable paradigm for assessing and integrating the ecological risk that chemical contaminants pose to biological systems from the simplest levels (genotypes, individual organisms) to the most complex levels of organization (communities and ecosystems). The Franklin-Noss model can accommodate the existing ecotoxicological database and, perhaps more importantly, indicate new areas in which critical endpoints should be identified and investigated.

  17. Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) as a model system in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bowker, Matthew A.; Maestre, Fernando T.; Eldridge, David; Belnap, Jayne; Castillo-Monroy, Andrea; Escolar, Cristina; Soliveres, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Model systems have had a profound influence on the development of ecological theory and general principles. Compared to alternatives, the most effective models share some combination of the following characteristics: simpler, smaller, faster, general, idiosyncratic or manipulable. We argue that biological soil crusts (biocrusts) have unique combinations of these features that should be more widely exploited in community, landscape and ecosystem ecology. In community ecology, biocrusts are elucidating the importance of biodiversity and spatial pattern for maintaining ecosystem multifunctionality due to their manipulability in experiments. Due to idiosyncrasies in their modes of facilitation and competition, biocrusts have led to new models on the interplay between environmental stress and biotic interactions and on the maintenance of biodiversity by competitive processes. Biocrusts are perhaps one of the best examples of micro-landscapes—real landscapes that are small in size. Although they exhibit varying patch heterogeneity, aggregation, connectivity and fragmentation, like macro-landscapes, they are also compatible with well-replicated experiments (unlike macro-landscapes). In ecosystem ecology, a number of studies are imposing small-scale, low cost manipulations of global change or state factors in biocrust micro-landscapes. The versatility of biocrusts to inform such disparate lines of inquiry suggests that they are an especially useful model system that can enable researchers to see ecological principles more clearly and quickly.

  18. Forest Productivity and Diversity: Using Ecological Theory and Landscape Models to Guide Sustainable Forest Management

    SciTech Connect

    Huston, M.A.

    1998-11-01

    Sustainable forest management requires maintaining or increasing ecosystem productivity, while preserving or restoring natural levels of biodiversity. Application of general concepts from ecological theory, along with use of mechanistic, landscape-based computer models, can contribute to the successful achievement of both of these objectives. Ecological theories based on the energetics and dynamics of populations can be used to predict the general distribution of individual species, the diversity of different types of species, ecosystem process rates and pool sizes, and patterns of spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a broad range of environmental conditions. This approach requires subdivision of total biodiversity into functional types of organisms, primarily because different types of organisms respond very differently to the spatial and temporal variation of environmental conditions on landscapes. The diversity of species of the same functional type (particularly among plants) tends to be highest at relatively low levels of net primary productivity, while the total number of different functional types (particularly among animals) tends to be highest at high levels of productivity (e.g., site index or potential net primary productivity). In general, the diversity of animals at higher trophic levels (e.g., predators) reaches its maximum at much higher levels of productivity than the diversity of lower trophic levels (e.g., plants). This means that a single environment cannot support high diversity of all types of organisms. Within the framework of the general patterns described above, the distributions, population dynamics, and diversity of organisms in specific regions can be predicted more precisely using a combination of computer simulation models and GIS data based on satellite information and ground surveys. Biophysical models that use information on soil properties, climate, and hydrology have been developed to predict how the abundance and spatial distribution of various plants and animals. These models can be, used to predict the patterns of forest type and structure that develop in response to variation in productivity and disturbance across complex landscapes, as well as species diversity and the distribution and population fluctuations of threatened species in specific regions.

  19. COMPARING THE UTILITY OF MULTIMEDIA MODELS FOR HUMAN AND ECOLOGICAL EXPOSURE ANALYSIS: TWO CASES

    EPA Science Inventory

    A number of models are available for exposure assessment; however, few are used as tools for both human and ecosystem risks. This discussion will consider two modeling frameworks that have recently been used to support human and ecological decision making. The study will compare ...

  20. Families of Chronically Ill Children: A Systems and Social-Ecological Model of Adaptation and Challenge.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kazak, Anne E.

    1989-01-01

    Presents family systems model for understanding adaptation and coping in childhood chronic illness. Provides overview of systems and social-ecological theories relevant to this population. Reviews literature on stress and coping in these families. Examines unique issues and discusses importance of these models for responding to families with…

  1. INTEGRATION OF AN ECONOMY UNDER IMPERFECT COMPETITION WITH A TWELVE-CELL ECOLOGICAL MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report documents the scientific research work done to date on developing a generalized mathematical model depicting a combined economic-ecological-social system with the goal of making it available to the scientific community. The model is preliminary and has not been tested...

  2. SIMULATION MODELING OF GASTROINTESTINAL ABSORPTION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Mathematical dosimetry models incorporate mechanistic determinants of chemical disposition in a living organism to describe relationships between exposure concentration and the internal dose needed for PBPK models and human health risk assessment. Because they rely on determini...

  3. Reconstruction of fire regimes through integrated paleoecological proxy data and ecological modeling

    PubMed Central

    Iglesias, Virginia; Yospin, Gabriel I.; Whitlock, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Fire is a key ecological process affecting vegetation dynamics and land cover. The characteristic frequency, size, and intensity of fire are driven by interactions between top-down climate-driven and bottom-up fuel-related processes. Disentangling climatic from non-climatic drivers of past fire regimes is a grand challenge in Earth systems science, and a topic where both paleoecology and ecological modeling have made substantial contributions. In this manuscript, we (1) review the use of sedimentary charcoal as a fire proxy and the methods used in charcoal-based fire history reconstructions; (2) identify existing techniques for paleoecological modeling; and (3) evaluate opportunities for coupling of paleoecological and ecological modeling approaches to better understand the causes and consequences of past, present, and future fire activity. PMID:25657652

  4. Simulation of the heliosphere - Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNutt, R. L., Jr.; Lyon, John; Goodrich, Charles C.

    1998-02-01

    The problem of the interaction of the solar wind with the very local interstellar medium (VLISM) is complicated by the role played by collisions between the plasma components of the heliosphere and VLISM and the neutral component of the VLISM. We outline the inherent approximations in fluid descriptions of the problem and give formulas for the near-exact charge exchange and elastic collision transfer integrals for particles, momentum, and energy for two drifting Maxwellians with different drift speeds and temperatures. To lowest order, all Boltzmann collision operators can be evaluated analytically in terms of exponentials and error functions. Analytic approximations that have relative errors of less than 2.62 percent compared with the exact expressions can be implemented in large simulation codes. Our formulation avoids approximations used previously by others and leads to a simplification of the formulation and increased accuracy for numerical simulations of the heliosphere/VLISM interaction.

  5. Coupled Human-Ecological Dynamics and Land Degradation in Global Drylands-A modelling approach (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Helldén, U.

    2009-12-01

    Drylands comprise one-third of the Earth’s land area. They pose research, management, and policy challenges impacting the livelihoods of 2.5 billion people. Desertification is said to affect some 10-20% of the drylands and is assumed to expand with climate change and population growth. Recent paradigms stress the importance of understanding linkages between human-ecological (H-E) systems in order to achieve sustainable management policies. Understanding coupled H-E systems is difficult at local levels. It represents an even greater challenge at regional scales to guide priorities and policy decisions at national and international levels. System dynamic modelling may help facilitating the probblem. Desertification and land degradation are often modelled and mathematically defined in terms of soil erosion. The soil erosion process is usually described as a function of vegetation ground cover, rainfall characteristics, topography, soil characteristics and land management. On-going research based on system dynamic modelling, focussing on elucidating the inherent complexity of H-E systems across multiple scales, enables an assessment of the relative roles that climate, policy, management, land condition, vulnerability and human adaptation may play in desertification and dryland development. An early approach (1995) to study desertification through an H-E coupled model considered desertification to be stress beyond resilience, i.e. irreversible, using a predator-prey system approach. As most predator-prey models, it was based on two linked differential equations describing the evolution of both a human population (predator) and natural resources (prey) in terms of gains, losses and interaction. A recent effort used a model approach to assess desertification risk through system stability condition analysis. It is based on the assumption that soil erosion and the soil sub-system play an overriding final role in the desertification processes. It is stressing the role and importance of economic units, production costs, investments and profitability in natural resources exploitation. This paper presents a recently developed coupled H-E system dynamic model to simulate and analyse desertification syndromes. The model integrates socio-economic drivers with bio-physical drivers of biomass production and land degradation. It is based on the UN and GEF definitions of desertification. It analyses and simulates dryland dynamics and desertification through differential equations and numeric simulation. The model relates population pressure and dynamics over time to the growth and availability of biomass resources. The human population stock is described as a function of growth rate, death rate and resources dependent migration of people. The relative growth rate of the stock of resources is modelled as a function of climate and human exploitation pressure affecting the removal of resources, soil erosion and water availability over time. The model is applied, demonstrated and discussed for combinations of time series of simulated and observed data referring to “desertification” cases in the Sahel, the Mediterranean and Inner Mongolia, China. The results are compared to existing land and population related statistics and remotely sensed observations opening for land system “carrying capacity” analysis and discussions.

  6. Predicting ecological roles in the rhizosphere using metabolome and transportome modeling

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Larsen, Peter E.; Collart, Frank R.; Dai, Yang; Blanchard, Jeffrey L.

    2015-09-02

    The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. New algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad’s ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter ofmore » plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism’s transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.« less

  7. Ecological models supporting environmental decision making: a strategy for the future

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmolke, Amelie; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Grimm, Volker

    2010-01-01

    Ecological models are important for environmental decision support because they allow the consequences of alternative policies and management scenarios to be explored. However, current modeling practice is unsatisfactory. A literature review shows that the elements of good modeling practice have long been identified but are widely ignored. The reasons for this might include lack of involvement of decision makers, lack of incentives for modelers to follow good practice, and the use of inconsistent terminologies. As a strategy for the future, we propose a standard format for documenting models and their analyses: transparent and comprehensive ecological modeling (TRACE) documentation. This standard format will disclose all parts of the modeling process to scrutiny and make modeling itself more efficient and coherent.

  8. Software-Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, C. Y.; Abdel-Hamid, T.; Sherif, J. S.

    1992-01-01

    The Software Engineering Process Simulation (SEPS) model is described which was developed at JPL. SEPS is a dynamic simulation model of the software project development process. It uses the feedback principles of system dynamics to simulate the dynamic interactions among various software life cycle development activities and management decision making processes. The model is designed to be a planning tool to examine tradeoffs of cost, schedule, and functionality, and to test the implications of different managerial policies on a project's outcome. Furthermore, SEPS will enable software managers to gain a better understanding of the dynamics of software project development and perform postmodern assessments.

  9. Entomopathogenic Nematodes as a Model System for Advancing the Frontiers of Ecology

    PubMed Central

    Campos–Herrera, Raquel; Barbercheck, Mary; Hoy, Casey W.; Stock, S. Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Entomopathogenic nematodes (EPNs) in the families Heterorhabditidae and Steinernematidae have a mutualistic–symbiotic association with enteric γ-Proteobacteria (Steinernema–Xenorhabdus and Heterorhabditis–Photorhabdus), which confer high virulence against insects. EPNs have been studied intensively because of their role as a natural mortality factor for soil-dwelling arthropods and their potential as biological control agents for belowground insect pests. For many decades, research on EPNs focused on the taxonomy, phylogeny, biogeography, genetics, physiology, biochemistry and ecology, as well as commercial production and application technologies. More recently, EPNs and their bacterial symbionts are being viewed as a model system for advancing research in other disciplines such as soil ecology, symbiosis and evolutionary biology. Integration of existing information, particularly the accumulating information on their biology, into increasingly detailed population models is critical to improving our ability to exploit and manage EPNs as a biological control agent and to understand ecological processes in a changing world. Here, we summarize some recent advances in phylogeny, systematics, biogeography, community ecology and population dynamics models of EPNs, and describe how this research is advancing frontiers in ecology. PMID:23482825

  10. Simulation modeling and analysis with Arena

    SciTech Connect

    Tayfur Altiok; Benjamin Melamed

    2007-06-15

    The textbook which treats the essentials of the Monte Carlo discrete-event simulation methodology, and does so in the context of a popular Arena simulation environment. It treats simulation modeling as an in-vitro laboratory that facilitates the understanding of complex systems and experimentation with what-if scenarios in order to estimate their performance metrics. The book contains chapters on the simulation modeling methodology and the underpinnings of discrete-event systems, as well as the relevant underlying probability, statistics, stochastic processes, input analysis, model validation and output analysis. All simulation-related concepts are illustrated in numerous Arena examples, encompassing production lines, manufacturing and inventory systems, transportation systems, and computer information systems in networked settings. Chapter 13.3.3 is on coal loading operations on barges/tugboats.

  11. Toward the Quantification of a Conceptual Framework for Movement Ecology Using Circular Statistical Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Shimatani, Ichiro Ken; Yoda, Ken; Katsumata, Nobuhiro; Sato, Katsufumi

    2012-01-01

    To analyze an animal’s movement trajectory, a basic model is required that satisfies the following conditions: the model must have an ecological basis and the parameters used in the model must have ecological interpretations, a broad range of movement patterns can be explained by that model, and equations and probability distributions in the model should be mathematically tractable. Random walk models used in previous studies do not necessarily satisfy these requirements, partly because movement trajectories are often more oriented or tortuous than expected from the models. By improving the modeling for turning angles, this study aims to propose a basic movement model. On the basis of the recently developed circular auto-regressive model, we introduced a new movement model and extended its applicability to capture the asymmetric effects of external factors such as wind. The model was applied to GPS trajectories of a seabird (Calonectris leucomelas) to demonstrate its applicability to various movement patterns and to explain how the model parameters are ecologically interpreted under a general conceptual framework for movement ecology. Although it is based on a simple extension of a generalized linear model to circular variables, the proposed model enables us to evaluate the effects of external factors on movement separately from the animal’s internal state. For example, maximum likelihood estimates and model selection suggested that in one homing flight section, the seabird intended to fly toward the island, but misjudged its navigation and was driven off-course by strong winds, while in the subsequent flight section, the seabird reset the focal direction, navigated the flight under strong wind conditions, and succeeded in approaching the island. PMID:23226261

  12. Numerical Simulation of Unsteady Aerodynamic Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nguyen, Khanh Q.; Warmbrodt, William (Technical Monitor)

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the results of the numerical simulations of unsteady aerodynamic models. The results focus on numerical accuracy and efficiency, and the robustness of the numerical methods. The aerodynamic models includes the classical Wagner and Kussner functions and the Leishman-Beddoes dynamic stall model. The simulations includes the numerical approximations of the Duhamel's integrals using both indicial (step) and impulse responses, the numerical integrations of the state-space models, and the exact solutions. The report also presents the conversion among different model representations.

  13. Can we reach consensus between marine ecological models and DEB theory? A look at primary producers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marques, Gonçalo M.; Mateus, Marcos; Domingos, Tiago

    2014-11-01

    In the last decades we have witnessed an explosion in marine modeling efforts, both at the development and application levels. A general agreement is expected between ecological models and metabolic theories, and one should be able to use ideas and principles from both views. Nevertheless, there are marked differences that can vary from differences in formulation of processes to baseline assumptions. So far, efforts to reconcile these models of natural systems have been limited. Here, we critically compare ERSEM (European Regional Seas Ecosystem Model), a state of the art ecological model in marine biogeochemical modeling, with a DEB (Dynamic Energy Budget) model (based on the metabolic theory DEB), highlighting similarities and showing where the approaches differ. This study focuses on primary producers and is driven by two main questions: (1) Is it possible to harmonize the philosophy and structure of models like ERSEM with the general scope of unifying metabolic theories such as DEB? (2) Can we bring the current paradigms in ecological modeling for marine communities to consensus with metabolic theories? We analyze the links between the underling processes in the DEB and ERSEM models. We found that the processes of assimilation and mobilization are the most difficult to reconcile between the two models. However, we also find a number of clear analogies between the parameters, state variables and fluxes of the two models, which allow for the transference of knowledge between them.

  14. Studying dissolved organic carbon export from the Penobscot Watershed in to Gulf of Maine using Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rouhani, S. F. B. B.; Schaaf, C.; Douglas, E. M.; Choate, J. S.; Yang, Y.; Kim, J.

    2014-12-01

    The movement of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) from terrestrial system into aquatic system plays an important role for carbon sequestration in ecosystems and affects the formation of soil organic matters.Carbon cycling, storage, and transport to marine systems have become critical issues in global-change science, especially with regard to northern latitudes (Freeman et al., 2001; Benner et al., 2004). DOC, as an important composition of the carbon cycling, leaches from the terrestrial watersheds is a large source of marine DOC. The Penobscot River basin in north-central Maine is the second largest watershed in New England, which drains in to Gulf of Maine. Approximately 89% of the watershed is forested (Griffith and Alerich, 1996).Studying temporal and spatial changes in DOC export can help us to understand terrestrial carbon cycling and to detect any shifts from carbon sink to carbon source or visa versa in northern latitude forested ecosystems.Despite for the importance of understanding carbon cycling in terrestrial and aquatic biogeochemistry, the Doc export, especially the combination of DOC production from bio-system and DOC transportation from the terrestrial in to stream has been lightly discussed in most conceptual or numerical models. The Regional Hydro-Ecological Simulation System (RHESSys), which has been successfully applied in many study sites, is a physical process based terrestrial model that has the ability to simulate both the source and transportation of DOC by combining both hydrological and ecological processes. The focus of this study is on simulating the DOC concentration and flux from the land to the water using RHESSys in the Penobscot watershed. The simulated results will be compared with field measurement of DOC from the watershed to explore the spatial and temporal DOC export pattern. This study will also enhance our knowledge to select sampling locations properly and also improve our understanding on DOC production and transportation in terrestrial forest ecosystem.

  15. Integrating Evolution into Ecological Modelling: Accommodating Phenotypic Changes in Agent Based Models

    PubMed Central

    Moustakas, Aristides; Evans, Matthew R.

    2013-01-01

    Evolutionary change is a characteristic of living organisms and forms one of the ways in which species adapt to changed conditions. However, most ecological models do not incorporate this ubiquitous phenomenon. We have developed a model that takes a ‘phenotypic gambit’ approach and focuses on changes in the frequency of phenotypes (which differ in timing of breeding and fecundity) within a population, using, as an example, seasonal breeding. Fitness per phenotype calculated as the individual’s contribution to population growth on an annual basis coincide with the population dynamics per phenotype. Simplified model variants were explored to examine whether the complexity included in the model is justified. Outputs from the spatially implicit model underestimated the number of individuals across all phenotypes. When no phenotype transitions are included (i.e. offspring always inherit their parent’s phenotype) numbers of all individuals are always underestimated. We conclude that by using a phenotypic gambit approach evolutionary dynamics can be incorporated into individual based models, and that all that is required is an understanding of the probability of offspring inheriting the parental phenotype. PMID:23940700

  16. Maintenance Personnel Performance Simulation (MAPPS) model

    SciTech Connect

    Siegel, A.I.; Bartter, W.D.; Wolf, J.J.; Knee, H.E.; Haas, P.M.

    1984-01-01

    A stochastic computer model for simulating the actions and behavior of nuclear power plant maintenance personnel is described. The model considers personnel, environmental, and motivational variables to yield predictions of maintenance performance quality and time to perform. The mode has been fully developed and sensitivity tested. Additional evaluation of the model is now taking place.

  17. ECOLOGICAL THEORY. A general consumer-resource population model.

    PubMed

    Lafferty, Kevin D; DeLeo, Giulio; Briggs, Cheryl J; Dobson, Andrew P; Gross, Thilo; Kuris, Armand M

    2015-08-21

    Food-web dynamics arise from predator-prey, parasite-host, and herbivore-plant interactions. Models for such interactions include up to three consumer activity states (questing, attacking, consuming) and up to four resource response states (susceptible, exposed, ingested, resistant). Articulating these states into a general model allows for dissecting, comparing, and deriving consumer-resource models. We specify this general model for 11 generic consumer strategies that group mathematically into predators, parasites, and micropredators and then derive conditions for consumer success, including a universal saturating functional response. We further show how to use this framework to create simple models with a common mathematical lineage and transparent assumptions. Underlying assumptions, missing elements, and composite parameters are revealed when classic consumer-resource models are derived from the general model. PMID:26293960

  18. Theory, modeling, and simulation annual report, 1992

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    This report briefly discusses research on the following topics: development of electronic structure methods; modeling molecular processes in clusters; modeling molecular processes in solution; modeling molecular processes in separations chemistry; modeling interfacial molecular processes; modeling molecular processes in the atmosphere; methods for periodic calculations on solids; chemistry and physics of minerals; graphical user interfaces for computational chemistry codes; visualization and analysis of molecular simulations; integrated computational chemistry environment; and benchmark computations.

  19. Structural model uncertainty in stochastic simulation

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.D.; Morrison, J.D.

    1997-09-01

    Prediction uncertainty in stochastic simulation models can be described by a hierarchy of components: stochastic variability at the lowest level, input and parameter uncertainty at a higher level, and structural model uncertainty at the top. It is argued that a usual paradigm for analysis of input uncertainty is not suitable for application to structural model uncertainty. An approach more likely to produce an acceptable methodology for analyzing structural model uncertainty is one that uses characteristics specific to the particular family of models.

  20. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ADVANCED UTILITY SIMULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper discusses the development of the Advanced Utility Simulation Model (AUSM), developed for the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program (NAPAP), to forecast air emissions of pollutants from electric utilities. USM integrates generating unit engineering detail with d...

  1. MATHEMATICAL MODELING OF SIMULATED PHOTOCHEMICAL SMOG

    EPA Science Inventory

    This report deals with the continuing effort to develop a chemical kinetic mechanism to describe the formation of photochemical smog. Using the technique of computer modeling to simulate smog chamber data, several explicit kinetic mechanisms for specific hydrocarbons were analyze...

  2. A Simulation To Model Exponential Growth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Appelbaum, Elizabeth Berman

    2000-01-01

    Describes a simulation using dice-tossing students in a population cluster to model the growth of cancer cells. This growth is recorded in a scatterplot and compared to an exponential function graph. (KHR)

  3. MODELING CONCEPTS FOR BMP/LID SIMULATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Enhancement of simulation options for stormwater best management practices (BMPs) and hydrologic source control is discussed in the context of the EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). Options for improvement of various BMP representations are presented, with emphasis on inco...

  4. Mathematical Model Development and Simulation Support

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Francis, Ronald C.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    2000-01-01

    This report summarizes the work performed in support of the Contact Dynamics 6DOF Facility and the Flight Robotics Lab at NASA/ MSFC in the areas of Mathematical Model Development and Simulation Support.

  5. Heat pipe modeling and simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, G. P.

    1985-01-01

    Presented herein is a parametric study of the defining equations which govern the steady state operational characteristics of the Grumman Monogroove Dual Passage Heat Pipe. These defining equations are combined to develop a mathematical model which describes and predicts the operational and performance capabilities of a specific heat pipe, given the necessary physical characteristics and working fluid. Included is a brief review of the current literature, a discussion of the governing equations, and a description of both the mathematical and computer model. Final results of preliminary test runs of the model are presented and compared with experimental tests performed by Grumman on actual prototypes.

  6. The impacts of multiple stressors to model ecological structures

    SciTech Connect

    Landis, W.G.; Kelly, S.A.; Markiewicz, A.J.; Matthews, R.A.; Matthews, G.B.

    1995-12-31

    The basis of the community conditioning hypothesis is that ecological structures are the result of their unique etiology. Systems that have been exposed to a variety of stressors should reflect this history. The authors how conducted a series of microcosm experiments that can compare the effects of multiple stressors upon community dynamics. The microcosm protocols are derived from the Standardized Aquatic Microcosm (SAM) and have Lemma and additional protozoan species. Two multiple stressor experiments have been conducted. In an extended length SAM (ELSAM), two of four treatments were dosed with the turbine fuel JP-8 one week into the experiment. Two treatments were later exposed to the heat stress, one that had received jet fuel and one that had not. Similarly, an ELSAM was conducted with the second stressor being the further addition of JP-8 replacing the heat shock. Biological, physical and chemical data were analyzed with multivariate techniques including nonmetric clustering and association analysis. Space-time worms and phase diagrams were also employed to ascertain the dynamic relationships of variables identified as important by the multivariate techniques. The experiments do not result in a simple additive linear response to the additional stressor. Examination of the relative population dynamics reveal alterations in trajectories that suggest treatment related effects. As in previous single stressor experiments, recovery does not occur even after extended experimental periods. The authors are now attempting to measure the resulting trajectories, changes in similarity vectors and overall dynamics. However, community conditioning does appear to be an important framework in understanding systems with a heterogeneous array of stressors.

  7. Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling.

    PubMed

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence. PMID:22359670

  8. Predicting the Current and Future Potential Distributions of Lymphatic Filariasis in Africa Using Maximum Entropy Ecological Niche Modelling

    PubMed Central

    Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin

    2012-01-01

    Modelling the spatial distributions of human parasite species is crucial to understanding the environmental determinants of infection as well as for guiding the planning of control programmes. Here, we use ecological niche modelling to map the current potential distribution of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis (LF), in Africa, and to estimate how future changes in climate and population could affect its spread and burden across the continent. We used 508 community-specific infection presence data collated from the published literature in conjunction with five predictive environmental/climatic and demographic variables, and a maximum entropy niche modelling method to construct the first ecological niche maps describing potential distribution and burden of LF in Africa. We also ran the best-fit model against climate projections made by the HADCM3 and CCCMA models for 2050 under A2a and B2a scenarios to simulate the likely distribution of LF under future climate and population changes. We predict a broad geographic distribution of LF in Africa extending from the west to the east across the middle region of the continent, with high probabilities of occurrence in the Western Africa compared to large areas of medium probability interspersed with smaller areas of high probability in Central and Eastern Africa and in Madagascar. We uncovered complex relationships between predictor ecological niche variables and the probability of LF occurrence. We show for the first time that predicted climate change and population growth will expand both the range and risk of LF infection (and ultimately disease) in an endemic region. We estimate that populations at risk to LF may range from 543 and 804 million currently, and that this could rise to between 1.65 to 1.86 billion in the future depending on the climate scenario used and thresholds applied to signify infection presence. PMID:22359670

  9. The Ecological Model Web Concept: A Consultative Infrastructure for Decision Makers and Researchers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Geller, G.; Nativi, S.

    2011-12-01

    Rapid climate and socioeconomic changes may be outrunning society's ability to understand, predict, and respond to change effectively. Decision makers want better information about what these changes will be and how various resources will be affected, while researchers want better understanding of the components and processes of ecological systems, how they interact, and how they respond to change. Although there are many excellent models in ecology and related disciplines, there is only limited coordination among them, and accessible, openly shared models or model systems that can be consulted to gain insight on important ecological questions or assist with decision-making are rare. A "consultative infrastructure" that increased access to and sharing of models and model outputs would benefit decision makers, researchers, as well as modelers. Of course, envisioning such an ambitious system is much easier than building it, but several complementary approaches exist that could contribute. The one discussed here is called the Model Web. This is a concept for an open-ended system of interoperable computer models and databases based on making models and their outputs available as services ("model as a service"). Initially, it might consist of a core of several models from which it could grow gradually as new models or databases were added. However, a model web would not be a monolithic, rigidly planned and built system--instead, like the World Wide Web, it would grow largely organically, with limited central control, within a framework of broad goals and data exchange standards. One difference from the WWW is that a model web is much harder to create, and has more pitfalls, and thus is a long term vision. However, technology, science, observations, and models have advanced enough so that parts of an ecological model web can be built and utilized now, forming a framework for gradual growth as well as a broadly accessible infrastructure. Ultimately, the value of a model web lies in the increase in access to and sharing of both models and model outputs. By lowering access barriers to models and their outputs there is less reinvention, more efficient use of resources, greater interaction among researchers and across disciplines, as well as other benefits. The growth of such a system of models fits well with the concept and architecture of the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS) as well as the Semantic Web. And, while framed here in the context of ecological forecasting, the same concept can be applied to any discipline utilizing models.

  10. LAKE WATER TEMPERATURE SIMULATION MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Functional relationships to describe surface wind mixing, vertical turbulent diffusion, convective heat transfer, and radiation penetration based on data from lakes in Minnesota have been developed. hese relationships have been introduced by regressing model parameters found eith...

  11. Stochastic Approximation to Understand Simple Simulation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izquierdo, Segismundo S.; Izquierdo, Luis R.

    2013-04-01

    This paper illustrates how a deterministic approximation of a stochastic process can be usefully applied to analyse the dynamics of many simple simulation models. To demonstrate the type of results that can be obtained using this approximation, we present two illustrative examples which are meant to serve as methodological references for researchers exploring this area. Finally, we prove some convergence results for simulations of a family of evolutionary games, namely, intra-population imitation models in n-player games with arbitrary payoffs.

  12. Atomistic spin model simulations of magnetic nanomaterials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evans, R. F. L.; Fan, W. J.; Chureemart, P.; Ostler, T. A.; Ellis, M. O. A.; Chantrell, R. W.

    2014-03-01

    Atomistic modelling of magnetic materials provides unprecedented detail about the underlying physical processes that govern their macroscopic properties, and allows the simulation of complex effects such as surface anisotropy, ultrafast laser-induced spin dynamics, exchange bias, and microstructural effects. Here we present the key methods used in atomistic spin models which are then applied to a range of magnetic problems. We detail the parallelization strategies used which enable the routine simulation of extended systems with full atomistic resolution.

  13. Ecological Niche Model used to examine the distribution of an invasive, non-indigenous coral.

    PubMed

    Carlos-Júnior, L A; Barbosa, N P U; Moulton, T P; Creed, J C

    2015-02-01

    All organisms have a set of ecological conditions (or niche) which they depend on to survive and establish in a given habitat. The ecological niche of a species limits its geographical distribution. In the particular case of non-indigenous species (NIS), the ecological requirements of the species impose boundaries on the potential distribution of the organism in the new receptor regions. This is a theoretical assumption implicit when Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are used to assess the potential distribution of NIS. This assumption has been questioned, given that in some cases niche shift may occur during the process of invasion. We used ENMs to investigate whether the model fit with data from the native range of the coral Tubastraea coccinea Lesson, 1829 successfully predicts its invasion in the Atlantic. We also identified which factors best explain the distribution of this NIS. The broad native distributional range of T. coccinea predicted the invaded sites well, especially along the Brazilian coast, the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. The occurrence of T. coccinea was positively related to calcite levels and negatively to eutrophy, but was rather unaffected to other variables that often limit other marine organisms, suggesting that this NIS has wide ecological limits, a trait typical of invasive species. PMID:25465286

  14. Minimum-complexity helicopter simulation math model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heffley, Robert K.; Mnich, Marc A.

    1988-01-01

    An example of a minimal complexity simulation helicopter math model is presented. Motivating factors are the computational delays, cost, and inflexibility of the very sophisticated math models now in common use. A helicopter model form is given which addresses each of these factors and provides better engineering understanding of the specific handling qualities features which are apparent to the simulator pilot. The technical approach begins with specification of features which are to be modeled, followed by a build up of individual vehicle components and definition of equations. Model matching and estimation procedures are given which enable the modeling of specific helicopters from basic data sources such as flight manuals. Checkout procedures are given which provide for total model validation. A number of possible model extensions and refinement are discussed. Math model computer programs are defined and listed.

  15. An ecological model evaluation of two nutrient abatement strategies for the Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neumann, Thomas; Schernewski, Gerald

    2005-05-01

    The reduction of nutrient loads is the overriding strategy in order to abate eutrophication and to improve the ecological state of the Baltic Sea. A 3D-ecosystem model of the Baltic Sea was used to analyze the effects of two different 50% nitrogen and phosphorus load reduction scenarios. The first scenario assumed a proportional 50% load reduction in all riparian countries. The second was based on a cost-effective approach by Gren [I.-M. Gren, 2000. Managing a sea. Cost-Effective Nutrient Reduction To The Baltic Sea. Earthscan Publ., London. Ch. 43-56.] with significant regional differences in load reduction. The simulations suggest that a 50% reduction of nitrogen and phosphorus loads affect predominantly the coastal waters and favours cyanobacteria blooms in the central Baltic Sea. In the cost-effective approach, blooms of the potentially toxic cyanobacteria become even more pronounced in the northern part of the Baltic Proper. The comparison between the two 50% reduction scenarios reveals differences mainly in coastal waters. Near large rivers in the southern Baltic, like the Oder and the Vistula, the cost-effective scenario shows a greater decrease of nutrients and chlorophyll- a concentrations. Altogether the water quality in southern Baltic Sea, especially in Germany, Poland and the Baltic states benefits from a cost-effective approach. However, differences in nutrient and chlorophyll- a concentrations between the scenarios are small. Referring to our simulation results, in a medium-term perspective the measures to abate eutrophication in the Baltic Sea will be not very efficient concerning the central Baltic Sea and might generate undesirable summer blooms of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria. These are a result of nutrient imbalances in the system and may persist for several decades. A more pronounced and early reduction of the phosphorus loads might shorten the period of bloom persistence.

  16. Integrating Empirical-Modeling Approaches to Improve Understanding of Terrestrial Ecology Processes

    SciTech Connect

    McCarthy, Heather; Luo, Yiqi; Wullschleger, Stan D

    2012-01-01

    Recent decades have seen tremendous increases in the quantity of empirical ecological data collected by individual investigators, as well as through research networks such as FLUXNET (Baldocchi et al., 2001). At the same time, advances in computer technology have facilitated the development and implementation of large and complex land surface and ecological process models. Separately, each of these information streams provides useful, but imperfect information about ecosystems. To develop the best scientific understanding of ecological processes, and most accurately predict how ecosystems may cope with global change, integration of empirical and modeling approaches is necessary. However, true integration - in which models inform empirical research, which in turn informs models (Fig. 1) - is not yet common in ecological research (Luo et al., 2011). The goal of this workshop, sponsored by the Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program, was to bring together members of the empirical and modeling communities to exchange ideas and discuss scientific practices for increasing empirical - model integration, and to explore infrastructure and/or virtual network needs for institutionalizing empirical - model integration (Yiqi Luo, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA). The workshop included presentations and small group discussions that covered topics ranging from model-assisted experimental design to data driven modeling (e.g. benchmarking and data assimilation) to infrastructure needs for empirical - model integration. Ultimately, three central questions emerged. How can models be used to inform experiments and observations? How can experimental and observational results be used to inform models? What are effective strategies to promote empirical - model integration?

  17. An Open Source Simulation Model for Soil and Sediment Bioturbation

    PubMed Central

    Schiffers, Katja; Teal, Lorna Rachel; Travis, Justin Mark John; Solan, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Bioturbation is one of the most widespread forms of ecological engineering and has significant implications for the structure and functioning of ecosystems, yet our understanding of the processes involved in biotic mixing remains incomplete. One reason is that, despite their value and utility, most mathematical models currently applied to bioturbation data tend to neglect aspects of the natural complexity of bioturbation in favour of mathematical simplicity. At the same time, the abstract nature of these approaches limits the application of such models to a limited range of users. Here, we contend that a movement towards process-based modelling can improve both the representation of the mechanistic basis of bioturbation and the intuitiveness of modelling approaches. In support of this initiative, we present an open source modelling framework that explicitly simulates particle displacement and a worked example to facilitate application and further development. The framework combines the advantages of rule-based lattice models with the application of parameterisable probability density functions to generate mixing on the lattice. Model parameters can be fitted by experimental data and describe particle displacement at the spatial and temporal scales at which bioturbation data is routinely collected. By using the same model structure across species, but generating species-specific parameters, a generic understanding of species-specific bioturbation behaviour can be achieved. An application to a case study and comparison with a commonly used model attest the predictive power of the approach. PMID:22162997

  18. Intelligent Simulation Model To Facilitate EHR Training

    PubMed Central

    Mohan, Vishnu; Scholl, Gretchen; Gold, Jeffrey A.

    2015-01-01

    Despite the rapid growth of EHR use, there are currently no standardized protocols for EHR training. A simulation EHR environment may offer significant advantages with respect to EHR training, but optimizing the training paradigm requires careful consideration of the simulation model itself, and how it is to be deployed during training. In this paper, we propose Six Principles that are EHR-agnostic and provide the framework for the development of an intelligent simulation model that can optimize EHR training by replicating real-world clinical conditions and appropriate cognitive loads.

  19. Modeling of transformers using circuit simulators

    SciTech Connect

    Archer, W.E.; Deveney, M.F.; Nagel, R.L.

    1994-07-01

    Transformers of two different designs; and unencapsulated pot core and an encapsulated toroidal core have been modeled for circuit analysis with circuit simulation tools. We selected MicroSim`s PSPICE and Anology`s SABER as the simulation tools and used experimental BH Loop and network analyzer measurements to generate the needed input data. The models are compared for accuracy and convergence using the circuit simulators. Results are presented which demonstrate the effects on circuit performance from magnetic core losses, eddy currents, and mechanical stress on the magnetic cores.

  20. Combining correlative and mechanistic habitat suitability models to improve ecological compensation.

    PubMed

    Meineri, Eric; Deville, Anne-Sophie; Grémillet, David; Gauthier-Clerc, Michel; Béchet, Arnaud

    2015-02-01

    Only a few studies have shown positive impacts of ecological compensation on species dynamics affected by human activities. We argue that this is due to inappropriate methods used to forecast required compensation in environmental impact assessments. These assessments are mostly descriptive and only valid at limited spatial and temporal scales. However, habitat suitability models developed to predict the impacts of environmental changes on potential species' distributions should provide rigorous science-based tools for compensation planning. Here we describe the two main classes of predictive models: correlative models and individual-based mechanistic models. We show how these models can be used alone or synoptically to improve compensation planning. While correlative models are easier to implement, they tend to ignore underlying ecological processes and lack accuracy. On the contrary, individual-based mechanistic models can integrate biological interactions, dispersal ability and adaptation. Moreover, among mechanistic models, those considering animal energy balance are particularly efficient at predicting the impact of foraging habitat loss. However, mechanistic models require more field data compared to correlative models. Hence we present two approaches which combine both methods for compensation planning, especially in relation to the spatial scale considered. We show how the availability of biological databases and software enabling fast and accurate population projections could be advantageously used to assess ecological compensation requirement efficiently in environmental impact assessments. PMID:24837691

  1. mMWeb - An Online Platform for Employing Multiple Ecological Niche Modeling Algorithms

    PubMed Central

    Qiao, Huijie; Lin, Congtian; Ji, Liqiang; Jiang, Zhigang

    2012-01-01

    Background Predicting the ecological niche and potential habitat distribution of a given organism is one of the central domains of ecological and biogeographical research. A wide variety of modeling techniques have been developed for this purpose. In order to implement these models, the users must prepare a specific runtime environment for each model, learn how to use multiple model platforms, and prepare data in a different format each time. Additionally, often model results are difficult to interpret, and a standardized method for comparing model results across platforms does not exist. We developed a free and open source online platform, the multi-models web-based (mMWeb) platform, to address each of these problems, providing a novel environment in which the user can implement and compare multiple ecological niche model (ENM) algorithms. Methodology mMWeb combines 18 existing ENMs and their corresponding algorithms and provides a uniform procedure for modeling the potential habitat niche of a species via a common web browser. mMWeb uses Java Native Interface (JNI), Java R Interface to combine the different ENMs and executes multiple tasks in parallel on a super computer. The cross-platform, user-friendly interface of mMWeb simplifies the process of building ENMs, providing an accessible and efficient environment from which to explore and compare different model algorithms. PMID:22912854

  2. Importance of ocean circulation in ecological modeling: An example from the North Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skogen, Morten D.; Moll, Andreas

    2005-09-01

    There is an increasing number of ecological models for the North Sea around. Skogen and Moll (2000) [Skogen, M.D., Moll, A. 2000. Interannual variability of the North Sea primary production: comparison from two model studies. Continental Shelf Research 20 (2), 129-151] compared the interannual variability of the North Sea primary production using two state-of-the-art ecological models, NORWECOM and ECOHAM1. Their conclusion was that the two models agreed on an annual mean primary production, its variability and the timing and size of the peak production. On the other hand, there was a low (even negative dependent of area) correlation in the production in different years between the two models. In the present work, these conclusions are brought further. To try to better understand the observed differences between the two models, the two ecological models are run in an identical physical setting. With such a set-up also the interannual variability between the two models is in agreement, and it is concluded that the single most important factor for a reliable modeling of phytoplankton and nutrient distributions and transports within the North Sea is a proper physical model.

  3. Simulating Runoff from a Grid Based Mercury Model: Flow Comparisons

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several mercury cycling models, including general mass balance approaches, mixed-batch reactors in streams or lakes, or regional process-based models, exist to assess the ecological exposure risks associated with anthropogenically increased atmospheric mercury (Hg) deposition, so...

  4. An approach to the mathematical modelling of a controlled ecological life support system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Averner, M. M.

    1981-01-01

    An approach to the design of a computer based model of a closed ecological life-support system suitable for use in extraterrestrial habitats is presented. The model is based on elemental mass balance and contains representations of the metabolic activities of biological components. The model can be used as a tool in evaluating preliminary designs for closed regenerative life support systems and as a method for predicting the behavior of such systems.

  5. Ecological responses to simulated agricultural runoff in a riverine backwater wetland

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Riverine backwater wetlands within river floodplains provide valuable ecological functions such as acting as filters for suspended sediment, nutrients and pesticides entering from adjacent agricultural fields, as well as habitat and refugia for aquatic biota. A 500 m long, 20 m wide riverine backwa...

  6. Local Geostatistical Models and Big Data in Hydrological and Ecological Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hristopulos, Dionissios

    2015-04-01

    The advent of the big data era creates new opportunities for environmental and ecological modelling but also presents significant challenges. The availability of remote sensing images and low-cost wireless sensor networks implies that spatiotemporal environmental data to cover larger spatial domains at higher spatial and temporal resolution for longer time windows. Handling such voluminous data presents several technical and scientific challenges. In particular, the geostatistical methods used to process spatiotemporal data need to overcome the dimensionality curse associated with the need to store and invert large covariance matrices. There are various mathematical approaches for addressing the dimensionality problem, including change of basis, dimensionality reduction, hierarchical schemes, and local approximations. We present a Stochastic Local Interaction (SLI) model that can be used to model local correlations in spatial data. SLI is a random field model suitable for data on discrete supports (i.e., regular lattices or irregular sampling grids). The degree of localization is determined by means of kernel functions and appropriate bandwidths. The strength of the correlations is determined by means of coefficients. In the "plain vanilla" version the parameter set involves scale and rigidity coefficients as well as a characteristic length. The latter determines in connection with the rigidity coefficient the correlation length of the random field. The SLI model is based on statistical field theory and extends previous research on Spartan spatial random fields [2,3] from continuum spaces to explicitly discrete supports. The SLI kernel functions employ adaptive bandwidths learned from the sampling spatial distribution [1]. The SLI precision matrix is expressed explicitly in terms of the model parameter and the kernel function. Hence, covariance matrix inversion is not necessary for parameter inference that is based on leave-one-out cross validation. This property helps to overcome a significant computational bottleneck of geostatistical models due to the poor scaling of the matrix inversion [4,5]. We present applications to real and simulated data sets, including the Walker lake data, and we investigate the SLI performance using various statistical cross validation measures. References [1] T. Hofmann, B. Schlkopf, A.J. Smola, Annals of Statistics, 36, 1171-1220 (2008). [2] D. T. Hristopulos, SIAM Journal on Scientific Computing, 24(6): 2125-2162 (2003). [3] D. T. Hristopulos and S. N. Elogne, IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 57(9): 3475-3487 (2009) [4] G. Jona Lasinio, G. Mastrantonio, and A. Pollice, Statistical Methods and Applications, 22(1):97-112 (2013) [5] Sun, Y., B. Li, and M. G. Genton (2012). Geostatistics for large datasets. In: Advances and Challenges in Space-time Modelling of Natural Events, Lecture Notes in Statistics, pp. 55-77. Springer, Berlin-Heidelberg.

  7. Trimming an aircraft model for flight simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mcfarland, Richard E.

    1987-01-01

    Real-time piloted aircraft simulations with digital computers have been performed at Ames Research Center (ARC) for over two decades. For the simulation of conventional aircraft models, the establishment of initial vehicle and control orientations at various operational flight regimes has been adequately handled by either analog techniques or simple inversion processes. However, exotic helicopter configurations have been introduced recently that require more sophisticated techniques because of their expanded degrees of freedom and environmental vibration levels. At ARC, these techniques are used for the backward solutions to real-time simulation models as required for the generation of trim points. These techniques are presented in this paper with examples from a blade-element helicopter simulation model.

  8. SPATIAL FOREST SOIL PROPERTIES FOR ECOLOGICAL MODELING IN THE WESTERN OREGON CASCADES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The ultimate objective of this work is to provide a spatially distributed database of soil properties to serve as inputs to model ecological processes in western forests at the landscape scale. The Central Western Oregon Cascades are rich in biodiversity and they are a fascinati...

  9. Exploring the Influence of a Social Ecological Model on School-Based Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langille, Jessie-Lee D.; Rodgers, Wendy M.

    2010-01-01

    Among rising rates of overweight and obesity, schools have become essential settings to promote health behaviors, such as physical activity (PA). As schools exist within a broader environment, the social ecological model (SEM) provided a framework to consider how different levels interact and influence PA. The purpose of this study was to provide…

  10. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  11. Applying the Social Ecological Model to Creating Asthma-Friendly Schools in Louisiana

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuss, Henry J.; Hester, Laura L.; Perry, Mark A.; Stewart-Briley, Collette; Reagon, Valamar M.; Collins, Pamela

    2016-01-01

    Background: In 2010, the Louisiana Asthma Management and Prevention Program (LAMP) implemented the Asthma-Friendly Schools Initiative in high-risk Louisiana populations. The social ecological model (SEM) was used as a framework for an asthma program implemented in 70 state K-12 public schools over 2 years. Methods: Activities included a needs…

  12. Social Ecological Model of Illness Management in High-Risk Youths with Type 1 Diabetes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naar-King, Sylvie; Podolski, Cheryl-Lynn; Ellis, Deborah A.; Frey, Maureen A.; Templin, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the authors tested a social ecological model of illness management in high-risk, urban adolescents with Type 1 diabetes. It was hypothesized that management behaviors would be associated with individual adolescent characteristics as well as family, peer, and provider relationships. Questionnaires were collected from 96 adolescents…

  13. An Ecological Risk Model for Early Childhood Anxiety: The Importance of Early Child Symptoms and Temperament

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mian, Nicholas D.; Wainwright, Laurel; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret J.; Carter, Alice S.

    2011-01-01

    Childhood anxiety is impairing and associated with later emotional disorders. Studying risk factors for child anxiety may allow earlier identification of at-risk children for prevention efforts. This study applied an ecological risk model to address how early childhood anxiety symptoms, child temperament, maternal anxiety and depression symptoms,…

  14. Applying the Social Ecological Model to Creating Asthma-Friendly Schools in Louisiana

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nuss, Henry J.; Hester, Laura L.; Perry, Mark A.; Stewart-Briley, Collette; Reagon, Valamar M.; Collins, Pamela

    2016-01-01

    Background: In 2010, the Louisiana Asthma Management and Prevention Program (LAMP) implemented the Asthma-Friendly Schools Initiative in high-risk Louisiana populations. The social ecological model (SEM) was used as a framework for an asthma program implemented in 70 state K-12 public schools over 2 years. Methods: Activities included a needs…

  15. Social Ecological Model of Illness Management in High-Risk Youths with Type 1 Diabetes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Naar-King, Sylvie; Podolski, Cheryl-Lynn; Ellis, Deborah A.; Frey, Maureen A.; Templin, Thomas

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the authors tested a social ecological model of illness management in high-risk, urban adolescents with Type 1 diabetes. It was hypothesized that management behaviors would be associated with individual adolescent characteristics as well as family, peer, and provider relationships. Questionnaires were collected from 96 adolescents…

  16. DEVELOPMENT AND APPLICATION OF POPULATION MODELS TO SUPPORT EPA'S ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESSES FOR PESTICIDES

    EPA Science Inventory

    As part of a broader exploratory effort to develop ecological risk assessment approaches to estimate potential chemical effects on non-target populations, we describe an approach for developing simple population models to estimate the extent to which acute effects on individual...

  17. Exploring the Influence of a Social Ecological Model on School-Based Physical Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Langille, Jessie-Lee D.; Rodgers, Wendy M.

    2010-01-01

    Among rising rates of overweight and obesity, schools have become essential settings to promote health behaviors, such as physical activity (PA). As schools exist within a broader environment, the social ecological model (SEM) provided a framework to consider how different levels interact and influence PA. The purpose of this study was to provide…

  18. Female-Headed Families: An Ecological Model of Residential Concentration in a Small City.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    And Others; Roncek, Dennis W.

    1980-01-01

    Proposed an ecological model to explain the concentration of female-headed families in a small city. Data for city blocks provided patterns of concentration. Of the physical variables, only historical development of the city and market decisions by nonresidential consumers were important predictors of concentration; spatial concentration was not…

  19. A CONCEPTUAL MODEL FOR EVALUATING RELATIVE POTENCY DATA FOR USE IN ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    For chemicals with a common mechanism of toxicity, relative potency factors (RPFs) allow dose and exposure measures to be normalized to an equivalent toxicity amount of a model chemical... In ecological risk assessments the large number of possible target species, variety of expo...

  20. Molecular tools and bumble bees: revealing hidden details of ecology and evolution in a model system

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bumble bees are a longstanding model system for studies on behavior, ecology, and evolution, due to their well-studied social lifestyle, invaluable roles as both wild and managed pollinators, and their ubiquity and diversity across temperate ecosystems. Yet despite their importance, many aspects of ...

  1. Using Teacher-Generated Ecological Models to Assess Knowledge Gained During Teacher Training

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dresner, M.; Moldenke, A.

    2005-12-01

    Developing a capacity for systems thinking (ways to understand complex systems) requires both immersion in challenging, real-world problem contexts and exposure to systems analysis language, tools and procedures, such as ecosystem modeling. Modeling is useful as a means of conveying complex, dynamic interactions. Models of ecosystems can facilitate an ability to be attentive to whole systems by illustrating multiple factors of interaction, feedback, subsystems and inputs and outputs, which lead to a greater understanding of ecosystem functioning. Concept mapping, which uses models of students' ideas organized hierarchically is used in assessment, but it does not having any outside utility. Ecosystem models, on the other hand, are legitimate end-products in and of themselves. A change made in a learner-generated model that conforms to patterns observed in nature by the learner can be seen as reflections of his or her understanding. Starting with their own reflections on previous ecological knowledge, teachers will model components of the ecosystem they are about to study. 'Teaching models' will be used to familiarize learners with the symbolic language of models and to teach some basic ecology concepts. Teachers then work directly with ecologists in conducting research, using the steps of a straightforward study as a guide, and then observe and discuss patterns in the data they have collected. Higher-order thinking skills are practiced through the reflective use of ecological models. Through a series of questions including analysis, relational reasoning, synthesis, testing, and explaining, pairs of teacher describe the principles and theories about ecology that they think might be operating in their models to one another. They describe the consequences of human-caused impacts and possible causal patterns. They explain any differences in their understanding of ecosystem interactions before and after their research experiences

  2. Architecting a Simulation Framework for Model Rehosting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Madden, Michael M.

    2004-01-01

    The utility of vehicle math models extends beyond human-in-the-loop simulation. It is desirable to deploy a given model across a multitude of applications that target design, analysis, and research. However, the vehicle model alone represents an incomplete simulation. One must also replicate the environment models (e.g., atmosphere, gravity, terrain) to achieve identical vehicle behavior across all applications. Environment models are increasing in complexity and represent a substantial investment to re-engineer for a new application. A software component that can be rehosted in each application is one solution to the deployment problem. The component must encapsulate both the vehicle and environment models. The component must have a well-defined interface that abstracts the bulk of the logic to operate the models. This paper examines the characteristics of a rehostable modeling component from the perspective of a human-in-the-loop simulation framework. The Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++) is used as an example. LaSRS++ was recently redesigned to transform its modeling package into a rehostable component.

  3. A virtual laboratory notebook for simulation models.

    PubMed

    Winfield, A J

    1998-01-01

    In this paper we describe how we have adopted the laboratory notebook as a metaphor for interacting with computer simulation models. This 'virtual' notebook stores the simulation output and meta-data (which is used to record the scientist's interactions with the simulation). The meta-data stored consists of annotations (equivalent to marginal notes in a laboratory notebook), a history tree and a log of user interactions. The history tree structure records when in 'simulation' time, and from what starting point in the tree changes are made to the parameters by the user. Typically these changes define a new run of the simulation model (which is represented as a new branch of the history tree). The tree shows the structure of the changes made to the simulation and the log is required to keep the order in which the changes occurred. Together they form a record which you would normally find in a laboratory notebook. The history tree is plotted in simulation parameter space. This shows the scientist's interactions with the simulation visually and allows direct manipulation of the parameter information presented, which in turn is used to control directly the state of the simulation. The interactions with the system are graphical and usually involve directly selecting or dragging data markers and other graphical control devices around in parameter space. If the graphical manipulators do not provide precise enough control then textual manipulation is still available which allows numerical values to be entered by hand. The Virtual Laboratory Notebook, by providing interesting interactions with the visual view of the history tree, provides a mechanism for giving the user complex and novel ways of interacting with biological computer simulation models. PMID:9697181

  4. Islands as model systems in ecology and evolution: prospects fifty years after MacArthur-Wilson.

    PubMed

    Warren, Ben H; Simberloff, Daniel; Ricklefs, Robert E; Aguilée, Robin; Condamine, Fabien L; Gravel, Dominique; Morlon, Hélène; Mouquet, Nicolas; Rosindell, James; Casquet, Juliane; Conti, Elena; Cornuault, Josselin; Fernández-Palacios, José María; Hengl, Tomislav; Norder, Sietze J; Rijsdijk, Kenneth F; Sanmartín, Isabel; Strasberg, Dominique; Triantis, Kostas A; Valente, Luis M; Whittaker, Robert J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Emerson, Brent C; Thébaud, Christophe

    2015-02-01

    The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit re-assessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution - understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification - frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future. PMID:25560682

  5. Agent-based modeling to simulate the dengue spread

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Chengbin; Tao, Haiyan; Ye, Zhiwei

    2008-10-01

    In this paper, we introduce a novel method ABM in simulating the unique process for the dengue spread. Dengue is an acute infectious disease with a long history of over 200 years. Unlike the diseases that can be transmitted directly from person to person, dengue spreads through a must vector of mosquitoes. There is still no any special effective medicine and vaccine for dengue up till now. The best way to prevent dengue spread is to take precautions beforehand. Thus, it is crucial to detect and study the dynamic process of dengue spread that closely relates to human-environment interactions where Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) effectively works. The model attempts to simulate the dengue spread in a more realistic way in the bottom-up way, and to overcome the limitation of ABM, namely overlooking the influence of geographic and environmental factors. Considering the influence of environment, Aedes aegypti ecology and other epidemiological characteristics of dengue spread, ABM can be regarded as a useful way to simulate the whole process so as to disclose the essence of the evolution of dengue spread.

  6. From patterns to causal understanding: Structural equation modeling (SEM) in soil ecology

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Eisenhauer, Nico; Powell, Jeff R; Grace, James B.; Bowker, Matthew A.

    2015-01-01

    In this perspectives paper we highlight a heretofore underused statistical method in soil ecological research, structural equation modeling (SEM). SEM is commonly used in the general ecological literature to develop causal understanding from observational data, but has been more slowly adopted by soil ecologists. We provide some basic information on the many advantages and possibilities associated with using SEM and provide some examples of how SEM can be used by soil ecologists to shift focus from describing patterns to developing causal understanding and inspiring new types of experimental tests. SEM is a promising tool to aid the growth of soil ecology as a discipline, particularly by supporting research that is increasingly hypothesis-driven and interdisciplinary, thus shining light into the black box of interactions belowground.

  7. Population demographic models in ecological risk assessment: Interpreting effects and predicting contaminant risk

    SciTech Connect

    Dillon, T.M.

    1994-12-31

    Ecological risk can be assessed at different levels of biological organization: biochemical, whole animal, populations and communities. Each level is characterized by varying degrees of contaminant sensitivity, response time, causal linkage and ecological interpretation. Whole animal bioassays are used in research and regulatory programs to assess contaminant impacts. In many ways, bioassays represent a compromise between the need for rapid, sensitive testing and the desire to measure ecologically important endpoints. Population demographic models represent a tool for interpreting bioassay results. They integrate life-history information and project population-level contaminant effects. Four important research issues must be addressed before demographic models can be fully utilized in this manner. Assumptions and extrapolations accompanying many models must be critically examined; e.g. assumption of no density-dependence and spatial/temporal extrapolations. Laboratory-based models must be calibrated with field-derived demographic models. Population models must be coupled with exposure models to characterize contaminant risk. Finally, field verification studies must be conducted to evaluate the accuracy of demographic model predictions.

  8. Parallel methods for the flight simulation model

    SciTech Connect

    Xiong, Wei Zhong; Swietlik, C.

    1994-06-01

    The Advanced Computer Applications Center (ACAC) has been involved in evaluating advanced parallel architecture computers and the applicability of these machines to computer simulation models. The advanced systems investigated include parallel machines with shared. memory and distributed architectures consisting of an eight processor Alliant FX/8, a twenty four processor sor Sequent Symmetry, Cray XMP, IBM RISC 6000 model 550, and the Intel Touchstone eight processor Gamma and 512 processor Delta machines. Since parallelizing a truly efficient application program for the parallel machine is a difficult task, the implementation for these machines in a realistic setting has been largely overlooked. The ACAC has developed considerable expertise in optimizing and parallelizing application models on a collection of advanced multiprocessor systems. One of aspect of such an application model is the Flight Simulation Model, which used a set of differential equations to describe the flight characteristics of a launched missile by means of a trajectory. The Flight Simulation Model was written in the FORTRAN language with approximately 29,000 lines of source code. Depending on the number of trajectories, the computation can require several hours to full day of CPU time on DEC/VAX 8650 system. There is an impetus to reduce the execution time and utilize the advanced parallel architecture computing environment available. ACAC researchers developed a parallel method that allows the Flight Simulation Model to be able to run in parallel on the multiprocessor system. For the benchmark data tested, the parallel Flight Simulation Model implemented on the Alliant FX/8 has achieved nearly linear speedup. In this paper, we describe a parallel method for the Flight Simulation Model. We believe the method presented in this paper provides a general concept for the design of parallel applications. This concept, in most cases, can be adapted to many other sequential application programs.

  9. Atmospheric model intercomparison project: Monsoon simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Sperber, K.R.; Palmer, T.N.

    1994-06-01

    The simulation of monsoons, in particular the Indian summer monsoon, has proven to be a critical test of a general circulation model`s ability to simulate tropical climate and variability. The Monsoon Numerical Experimentation Group has begun to address questions regarding the predictability of monsoon extremes, in particular conditions associated with El Nino and La Nina conditions that tend to be associated with drought and flood conditions over the Indian subcontinent, through a series of seasonal integrations using analyzed initial conditions from successive days in 1987 and 1988. In this paper the authors present an analysis of simulations associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), a coordinated effort to simulate the 1979--1988 decade using standardized boundary conditions with approximately 30 atmospheric general circulation models. The 13 models analyzed to date are listed. Using monthly mean data from these simulations they have calculated indices of precipitation and wind shear in an effort to access the performance of the models over the course of the AMIP decade.

  10. Revolutions in energy through modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Tatro, M.; Woodard, J.

    1998-08-01

    The development and application of energy technologies for all aspects from generation to storage have improved dramatically with the advent of advanced computational tools, particularly modeling and simulation. Modeling and simulation are not new to energy technology development, and have been used extensively ever since the first commercial computers were available. However, recent advances in computing power and access have broadened the extent and use, and, through increased fidelity (i.e., accuracy) of the models due to greatly enhanced computing power, the increased reliance on modeling and simulation has shifted the balance point between modeling and experimentation. The complex nature of energy technologies has motivated researchers to use these tools to understand better performance, reliability and cost issues related to energy. The tools originated in sciences such as the strength of materials (nuclear reactor containment vessels); physics, heat transfer and fluid flow (oil production); chemistry, physics, and electronics (photovoltaics); and geosciences and fluid flow (oil exploration and reservoir storage). Other tools include mathematics, such as statistics, for assessing project risks. This paper describes a few advancements made possible by these tools and explores the benefits and costs of their use, particularly as they relate to the acceleration of energy technology development. The computational complexity ranges from basic spreadsheets to complex numerical simulations using hardware ranging from personal computers (PCs) to Cray computers. In all cases, the benefits of using modeling and simulation relate to lower risks, accelerated technology development, or lower cost projects.

  11. Abstracts and program proceedings of the 1994 meeting of the International Society for Ecological Modelling North American Chapter

    SciTech Connect

    Kercher, J.R.

    1994-06-01

    This document contains information about the 1994 meeting of the International Society for Ecological Modelling North American Chapter. The topics discussed include: extinction risk assessment modelling, ecological risk analysis of uranium mining, impacts of pesticides, demography, habitats, atmospheric deposition, and climate change.

  12. Electrical Load Modeling and Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.

    2013-01-01

    Electricity consumer demand response and load control are playing an increasingly important role in the development of a smart grid. Smart grid load management technologies such as Grid FriendlyTM controls and real-time pricing are making their way into the conventional model of grid planning and operations. However, the behavior of load both affects, and is affected by load control strategies that are designed to support electric grid planning and operations. This chapter discussed the natural behavior of electric loads, how it interacts with various load control and demand response strategies, what the consequences are for new grid operation concepts and the computing issues these new technologies raise.

  13. Forest-succession models and their ecological and management implications

    SciTech Connect

    West, D.; Smith, T.M.; Weinstein, D.A.; Shugart, H.H.

    1981-01-01

    Computer models of forest succession have been developed to an extent that allows their use as a tool for predicting forest ecosystem behavior over long periods of time. This paper outlines the use of one approach to forest succession modeling for a variety of problems including: (1) determining the effect of climate change on forests; (2) integrating information on wildlife habitat changes with the changes in forest structure associated with timber management; (3) assessing the potential effect of air pollutants on forest dynamics; and (4) determining the theoretical importance of disturbance on forest community diversity and function.

  14. Rotor systems research aircraft simulation mathematical model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Houck, J. A.; Moore, F. L.; Howlett, J. J.; Pollock, K. S.; Browne, M. M.

    1977-01-01

    An analytical model developed for evaluating and verifying advanced rotor concepts is discussed. The model was used during in both open loop and real time man-in-the-loop simulation during the rotor systems research aircraft design. Future applications include: pilot training, preflight of test programs, and the evaluation of promising concepts before their implementation on the flight vehicle.

  15. Non-linear transformer modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Archer, W.E.; Deveney, M.F.; Nagel, R.L.

    1994-08-01

    Transformers models for simulation with Pspice and Analogy`s Saber are being developed using experimental B-H Loop and network analyzer measurements. The models are evaluated for accuracy and convergence using several test circuits. Results are presented which demonstrate the effects on circuit performance from magnetic core losses eddy currents and mechanical stress on the magnetic cores.

  16. Estimating solar radiation for plant simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hodges, T.; French, V.; Leduc, S.

    1985-01-01

    Five algorithms producing daily solar radiation surrogates using daily temperatures and rainfall were evaluated using measured solar radiation data for seven U.S. locations. The algorithms were compared both in terms of accuracy of daily solar radiation estimates and terms of response when used in a plant growth simulation model (CERES-wheat). Requirements for accuracy of solar radiation for plant growth simulation models are discussed. One algorithm is recommended as being best suited for use in these models when neither measured nor satellite estimated solar radiation values are available.

  17. ECOLOGICAL ENDPOINT MODELING: EFFECTS OF SEDIMENT ON FISH POPULATIONS

    EPA Science Inventory

    Sediment is one of the main stressors of concern for TMDLs (Total Maximum Daily Loads) for streams, and often it is a concern because of its impact on biological endpoints. The National Research Council (NRC) has recommended that the EPA promote the development of models that ca...

  18. Beyond Cultural Relativism: An Ecological Model for Rhetorical Ethics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mackin, Jim

    A model intended to overcome the cultural relativism of determining what is an ethical act draws an analogy to environmental studies. Beginning with the concepts of "telos" (final purpose) and "archai" (priority), the notion of an ecosystem of ethics avoids limitation to a particular historical definition of good. Since the telos of human life is…

  19. Cognitive Niches: An Ecological Model of Strategy Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marewski, Julian N.; Schooler, Lael J.

    2011-01-01

    How do people select among different strategies to accomplish a given task? Across disciplines, the strategy selection problem represents a major challenge. We propose a quantitative model that predicts how selection emerges through the interplay among strategies, cognitive capacities, and the environment. This interplay carves out for each…

  20. Understanding the Codevelopment of Modeling Practice and Ecological Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manz, Eve

    2012-01-01

    Despite a recent focus on engaging students in epistemic practices, there is relatively little research on how learning environments can support the simultaneous, coordinated development of both practice and the knowledge that emerges from and supports scientific activity. This study reports on the co-construction of modeling practice and…

  1. Great Basin Land Management Planning Using Ecological Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbis, Tara A.; Provencher, Louis; Frid, Leonardo; Medlyn, Gary

    2006-07-01

    This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations.

  2. Great Basin land management planning using ecological modeling.

    PubMed

    Forbis, Tara A; Provencher, Louis; Frid, Leonardo; Medlyn, Gary

    2006-07-01

    This report describes a land management modeling effort that analyzed potential impacts of proposed actions under an updated Bureau of Land Management Resource Management Plan that will guide management for 20 years on 4.6 million hectares in the Great Basin ecoregion of the United States. State-and-transition models that included vegetation data, fire histories, and many parameters (i.e., rates of succession, fire return intervals, outcomes of management actions, and invasion rates of native and nonnative invasive species) were developed through workshops with scientific experts and range management specialists. Alternative restoration scenarios included continuation of current management, full fire suppression, wildfire use in designated fire use zones, wildfire use in resilient vegetation types only, restoration with a tenfold budget increase, no restoration treatments, and no livestock grazing. Under all the scenarios, cover of vegetation states with native perennial understory declined and was replaced by tree-invaded and weed-dominated states. The greatest differences among alternative management scenarios resulted from the use of fire as a tool to maintain native understory. Among restoration scenarios, only the scenario assuming a tenfold budget increase had a more desirable outcome than the current management scenario. Removal of livestock alone had little effect on vegetation resilience. Rather, active restoration was required. The predictive power of the model was limited by current understanding of Great Basin vegetation dynamics and data needs including statistically valid monitoring of restoration treatments, invasiveness and invasibility, and fire histories. The authors suggest that such computer models can be useful tools for systematic analysis of potential impacts in land use planning. However, for a modeling effort to be productive, the management situation must be conducive to open communication among land management agencies and partner entities, including nonprofit organizations. PMID:16514478

  3. The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

    2013-12-01

    The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth step is the man-made ecological risks analysis. The mineral resources exploitation, forest resources developing, farming, tourism, industrialization and urbanization are integrated to derive the potential ecological risks made by human activities. The risks weight are given using the expert marking method, Then the man-made ecological risks are classified and divided among the regions. In the fifth step, the comprehensive ecological controlling divisions are obtained based on the above factors classification. At last, the applicable regions and distribution are derived using the spatial overlay analysis removing the higher ecological risks area and considering the land use status. In conclusion, based on the above comprehensive analyses, the applicable basins area are 2,575 km2 and 1,011 km2 respectively for the Yunnan province and Guizhou province. The amount is less than 1% of the perspective province total area focusing on the central part of the two provinces.

  4. A queuing model for road traffic simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Guerrouahane, N.; Aissani, D.; Bouallouche-Medjkoune, L.; Farhi, N.

    2015-03-10

    We present in this article a stochastic queuing model for the raod traffic. The model is based on the M/G/c/c state dependent queuing model, and is inspired from the deterministic Godunov scheme for the road traffic simulation. We first propose a variant of M/G/c/c state dependent model that works with density-flow fundamental diagrams rather than density-speed relationships. We then extend this model in order to consider upstream traffic demand as well as downstream traffic supply. Finally, we show how to model a whole raod by concatenating raod sections as in the deterministic Godunov scheme.

  5. Modeling Physics with Easy Java Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christian, Wolfgang; Esquembre, Francisco

    2007-11-01

    Modeling has been shown to correct weaknesses of traditional instruction by engaging students in the design of physical models to describe, explain, and predict phenomena. Although the modeling method can be used without computers, the use of computers allows students to study problems that are difficult and time consuming, to visualize their results, and to communicate their results with others. This combination of computer modeling with theory and experiment can achieve insight and understanding that cannot be achieved with only one approach. This paper describes the Easy Java Simulations (Ejs) modeling and authoring tool and shows how it can be used to teach mechanics concepts with computer modeling.

  6. Mars Smart Lander Parachute Simulation Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Queen, Eric M.; Raiszadeh, Ben

    2002-01-01

    A multi-body flight simulation for the Mars Smart Lander has been developed that includes six degree-of-freedom rigid-body models for both the supersonically-deployed and subsonically-deployed parachutes. This simulation is designed to be incorporated into a larger simulation of the entire entry, descent and landing (EDL) sequence. The complete end-to-end simulation will provide attitude history predictions of all bodies throughout the flight as well as loads on each of the connecting lines. Other issues such as recontact with jettisoned elements (heat shield, back shield, parachute mortar covers, etc.), design of parachute and attachment points, and desirable line properties can also be addressed readily using this simulation.

  7. PIXE simulation: Models, methods and technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Batic, M.; Pia, M. G.; Saracco, P.; Weidenspointner, G.

    2013-04-19

    The simulation of PIXE (Particle Induced X-ray Emission) is discussed in the context of general-purpose Monte Carlo systems for particle transport. Dedicated PIXE codes are mainly concerned with the application of the technique to elemental analysis, but they lack the capability of dealing with complex experimental configurations. General-purpose Monte Carlo codes provide powerful tools to model the experimental environment in great detail, but so far they have provided limited functionality for PIXE simulation. This paper reviews recent developments that have endowed the Geant4 simulation toolkit with advanced capabilities for PIXE simulation, and related efforts for quantitative validation of cross sections and other physical parameters relevant to PIXE simulation.

  8. Power electronics system modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Lai, Jih-Sheng

    1994-12-31

    This paper introduces control system design based softwares, SIMNON and MATLAB/SIMULINK, for power electronics system simulation. A complete power electronics system typically consists of a rectifier bridge along with its smoothing capacitor, an inverter, and a motor. The system components, featuring discrete or continuous, linear or nonlinear, are modeled in mathematical equations. Inverter control methods,such as pulse-width-modulation and hysteresis current control, are expressed in either computer algorithms or digital circuits. After describing component models and control methods, computer programs are then developed for complete systems simulation. Simulation results are mainly used for studying system performances, such as input and output current harmonics, torque ripples, and speed responses. Key computer programs and simulation results are demonstrated for educational purposes.

  9. A review and synthesis of late Pleistocene extinction modeling: progress delayed by mismatches between ecological realism, interpretation, and methodological transparency.

    PubMed

    Yule, Jeffrey V; Fournier, Robert J; Jensen, Christopher X J; Yang, Jinyan

    2014-06-01

    Late Pleistocene extinctions occurred globally over a period of about 50,000 years, primarily affecting mammals of > or = 44 kg body mass (i.e., megafauna) first in Australia, continuing in Eurasia and, finally, in the Americas. Polarized debate about the cause(s) of the extinctions centers on the role of climate change and anthropogenic factors (especially hunting). Since the late 1960s, investigators have developed mathematical models to simulate the ecological interactions that might have contributed to the extinctions. Here, we provide an overview of the various methodologies used and conclusions reached in the modeling literature, addressing both the strengths and weaknesses of modeling as an explanatory tool. Although late Pleistocene extinction models now provide a solid foundation for viable future work, we conclude, first, that single models offer less compelling support for their respective explanatory hypotheses than many realize; second, that disparities in methodology (both in terms of model parameterization and design) prevent meaningful comparison between models and, more generally, progress from model to model in increasing our understanding of these extinctions; and third, that recent models have been presented and possibly developed without sufficient regard for the transparency of design that facilitates scientific progress. PMID:24984323

  10. Radiation, Ecology and the Invalid LNT Model: The Evolutionary Imperative

    PubMed Central

    Parsons, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    Metabolic and energetic efficiency, and hence fitness of organisms to survive, should be maximal in their habitats. This tenet of evolutionary biology invalidates the linear-nothreshold (LNT) model for the risk consequences of environmental agents. Hormesis in response to selection for maximum metabolic and energetic efficiency, or minimum metabolic imbalance, to adapt to a stressed world dominated by oxidative stress should therefore be universal. Radiation hormetic zones extending substantially beyond common background levels, can be explained by metabolic interactions among multiple abiotic stresses. Demographic and experimental data are mainly in accord with this expectation. Therefore, non-linearity becomes the primary model for assessing risks from low-dose ionizing radiation. This is the evolutionary imperative upon which risk assessment for radiation should be based. PMID:18648598

  11. Development of NASA's Models and Simulations Standard

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bertch, William J.; Zang, Thomas A.; Steele, Martin J.

    2008-01-01

    From the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident Investigation, there were several NASA-wide actions that were initiated. One of these actions was to develop a standard for development, documentation, and operation of Models and Simulations. Over the course of two-and-a-half years, a team of NASA engineers, representing nine of the ten NASA Centers developed a Models and Simulation Standard to address this action. The standard consists of two parts. The first is the traditional requirements section addressing programmatics, development, documentation, verification, validation, and the reporting of results from both the M&S analysis and the examination of compliance with this standard. The second part is a scale for evaluating the credibility of model and simulation results using levels of merit associated with 8 key factors. This paper provides an historical account of the challenges faced by and the processes used in this committee-based development effort. This account provides insights into how other agencies might approach similar developments. Furthermore, we discuss some specific applications of models and simulations used to assess the impact of this standard on future model and simulation activities.

  12. Coupling Ecology and River Dynamics using a Simplified Interaction Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Longjas, A.; Czuba, J. A.; Schwenk, J.; Danesh Yazdi, M.; Hansen, A.; Foufoula-Georgiou, E.

    2013-12-01

    Quantifying how changes in streamflow and sediment affect riverine life is an important component of river basin management and stream restoration efforts, especially under human and climate-induced changes affecting many basins around the world. In the Midwestern US, drastic changes in mussel populations have been witnessed over the past decade begging quantitative understanding of cause and effect and attribution of these changes to the concurrent changes in streamflow and sediment loads to the rivers. Previous empirical analyses have attempted to explore mussel abundance with habitat associations and bulk hydrologic and geomorphic attributes as predictors but results showed relatively weak relationships and low predictive power. In this work, we developed a process-based model that incorporates water-sediment-mussel interactions using functional relationships and predicts the long-term trends of suspended-sediment, chlorophyll-a and mussel population using a daily streamflow record. We applied the model to the Minnesota River Basin, which has experienced significant changes in precipitation and runoff, increased sediment delivery, and decreasing mussel populations. Our model captures the general dynamics of the system and provides a better predictor of mussel populations than predictions based on geomorphic (e.g. upstream drainage area, slope) and hydraulic variables (e.g. 2-year recurrence interval peak streamflow, depth, width, cross sectional area, velocity, and Froude number) alone. To highlight the utility of our model, we tested possible scenarios that illustrate (1) how climate and land-use change may undermine the resilience of mussel populations and (2) how management efforts can allow mussel populations to recover.

  13. Effects of stream topology on ecological community results from neutral models

    EPA Science Inventory

    While neutral theory and models have stimulated considerable literature, less well investigated is the effect of topology on neutral metacommunity model simulations. We implemented a neutral metacommunity model using two different stream network topologies, a widely branched netw...

  14. Simulation Modeling of Software Development Processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Calavaro, G. F.; Basili, V. R.; Iazeolla, G.

    1996-01-01

    A simulation modeling approach is proposed for the prediction of software process productivity indices, such as cost and time-to-market, and the sensitivity analysis of such indices to changes in the organization parameters and user requirements. The approach uses a timed Petri Net and Object Oriented top-down model specification. Results demonstrate the model representativeness, and its usefulness in verifying process conformance to expectations, and in performing continuous process improvement and optimization.

  15. Incorporation of RAM techniques into simulation modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, S.C. Jr.; Haire, M.J.; Schryver, J.C.

    1995-07-01

    This work concludes that reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analytical techniques can be incorporated into computer network simulation modeling to yield an important new analytical tool. This paper describes the incorporation of failure and repair information into network simulation to build a stochastic computer model represents the RAM Performance of two vehicles being developed for the US Army: The Advanced Field Artillery System (AFAS) and the Future Armored Resupply Vehicle (FARV). The AFAS is the US Army`s next generation self-propelled cannon artillery system. The FARV is a resupply vehicle for the AFAS. Both vehicles utilize automation technologies to improve the operational performance of the vehicles and reduce manpower. The network simulation model used in this work is task based. The model programmed in this application requirements a typical battle mission and the failures and repairs that occur during that battle. Each task that the FARV performs--upload, travel to the AFAS, refuel, perform tactical/survivability moves, return to logistic resupply, etc.--is modeled. Such a model reproduces a model reproduces operational phenomena (e.g., failures and repairs) that are likely to occur in actual performance. Simulation tasks are modeled as discrete chronological steps; after the completion of each task decisions are programmed that determine the next path to be followed. The result is a complex logic diagram or network. The network simulation model is developed within a hierarchy of vehicle systems, subsystems, and equipment and includes failure management subnetworks. RAM information and other performance measures are collected which have impact on design requirements. Design changes are evaluated through ``what if`` questions, sensitivity studies, and battle scenario changes.

  16. Incorporation of RAM techniques into simulation modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, S. C., Jr.; Haire, M. J.; Schryver, J. C.

    1995-01-01

    This work concludes that reliability, availability, and maintainability (RAM) analytical techniques can be incorporated into computer network simulation modeling to yield an important new analytical tool. This paper describes the incorporation of failure and repair information into network simulation to build a stochastic computer model to represent the RAM Performance of two vehicles being developed for the US Army: The Advanced Field Artillery System (AFAS) and the Future Armored Resupply Vehicle (FARV). The AFAS is the US Army's next generation self-propelled cannon artillery system. The FARV is a resupply vehicle for the AFAS. Both vehicles utilize automation technologies to improve the operational performance of the vehicles and reduce manpower. The network simulation model used in this work is task based. The model programmed in this application requirements a typical battle mission and the failures and repairs that occur during that battle. Each task that the FARV performs--upload, travel to the AFAS, refuel, perform tactical/survivability moves, return to logistic resupply, etc.--is modeled. Such a model reproduces a model reproduces operational phenomena (e.g., failures and repairs) that are likely to occur in actual performance. Simulation tasks are modeled as discrete chronological steps; after the completion of each task decisions are programmed that determine the next path to be followed. The result is a complex logic diagram or network. The network simulation model is developed within a hierarchy of vehicle systems, subsystems, and equipment and includes failure management subnetworks. RAM information and other performance measures are collected which have impact on design requirements. Design changes are evaluated through 'what if' questions, sensitivity studies, and battle scenario changes.

  17. Requirements for psychological models to support design: Towards ecological task analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirlik, Alex

    1991-01-01

    Cognitive engineering is largely concerned with creating environmental designs to support skillful and effective human activity. A set of necessary conditions are proposed for psychological models capable of supporting this enterprise. An analysis of the psychological nature of the design product is used to identify a set of constraints that models must meet if they can usefully guide design. It is concluded that cognitive engineering requires models with resources for describing the integrated human-environment system, and that these models must be capable of describing the activities underlying fluent and effective interaction. These features are required in order to be able to predict the cognitive activity that will be required given various design concepts, and to design systems that promote the acquisition of fluent, skilled behavior. These necessary conditions suggest that an ecological approach can provide valuable resources for psychological modeling to support design. Relying heavily on concepts from Brunswik's and Gibson's ecological theories, ecological task analysis is proposed as a framework in which to predict the types of cognitive activity required to achieve productive behavior, and to suggest how interfaces can be manipulated to alleviate certain types of cognitive demands. The framework is described in terms, and illustrated with an example from the previous research on modeling skilled human-environment interaction.

  18. A coupled geomorphic and ecological model of tidal marsh evolution.

    PubMed

    Kirwan, Matthew L; Murray, A Brad

    2007-04-10

    The evolution of tidal marsh platforms and interwoven channel networks cannot be addressed without treating the two-way interactions that link biological and physical processes. We have developed a 3D model of tidal marsh accretion and channel network development that couples physical sediment transport processes with vegetation biomass productivity. Tidal flow tends to cause erosion, whereas vegetation biomass, a function of bed surface depth below high tide, influences the rate of sediment deposition and slope-driven transport processes such as creek bank slumping. With a steady, moderate rise in sea level, the model builds a marsh platform and channel network with accretion rates everywhere equal to the rate of sea-level rise, meaning water depths and biological productivity remain temporally constant. An increase in the rate of sea-level rise, or a reduction in sediment supply, causes marsh-surface depths, biomass productivity, and deposition rates to increase while simultaneously causing the channel network to expand. Vegetation on the marsh platform can promote a metastable equilibrium where the platform maintains elevation relative to a rapidly rising sea level, although disturbance to vegetation could cause irreversible loss of marsh habitat. PMID:17389384

  19. Wave modelling as a proxy for seagrass ecological modelling: Comparing fetch and process-based predictions for a bay and reef lagoon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Callaghan, David P.; Leon, Javier X.; Saunders, Megan I.

    2015-02-01

    The distribution, abundance, behaviour, and morphology of marine species is affected by spatial variability in the wave environment. Maps of wave metrics (e.g. significant wave height Hs, peak energy wave period Tp, and benthic wave orbital velocity URMS) are therefore useful for predictive ecological models of marine species and ecosystems. A number of techniques are available to generate maps of wave metrics, with varying levels of complexity in terms of input data requirements, operator knowledge, and computation time. Relatively simple "fetch-based" models are generated using geographic information system (GIS) layers of bathymetry and dominant wind speed and direction. More complex, but computationally expensive, "process-based" models are generated using numerical models such as the Simulating Waves Nearshore (SWAN) model. We generated maps of wave metrics based on both fetch-based and process-based models and asked whether predictive performance in models of benthic marine habitats differed. Predictive models of seagrass distribution for Moreton Bay, Southeast Queensland, and Lizard Island, Great Barrier Reef, Australia, were generated using maps based on each type of wave model. For Lizard Island, performance of the process-based wave maps was significantly better for describing the presence of seagrass, based on Hs, Tp, and URMS. Conversely, for the predictive model of seagrass in Moreton Bay, based on benthic light availability and Hs, there was no difference in performance using the maps of the different wave metrics. For predictive models where wave metrics are the dominant factor determining ecological processes it is recommended that process-based models be used. Our results suggest that for models where wave metrics provide secondarily useful information, either fetch- or process-based models may be equally useful.

  20. Microbial ecology-based methods to characterize the bacterial communities of non-model insects.

    PubMed

    Prosdocimi, Erica M; Mapelli, Francesca; Gonella, Elena; Borin, Sara; Crotti, Elena

    2015-12-01

    Among the animals of the Kingdom Animalia, insects are unparalleled for their widespread diffusion, diversity and number of occupied ecological niches. In recent years they have raised researcher interest not only because of their importance as human and agricultural pests, disease vectors and as useful breeding species (e.g. honeybee and silkworm), but also because of their suitability as animal models. It is now fully recognized that microorganisms form symbiotic relationships with insects, influencing their survival, fitness, development, mating habits and the immune system and other aspects of the biology and ecology of the insect host. Thus, any research aimed at deepening the knowledge of any given insect species (perhaps species of applied interest or species emerging as novel pests or vectors) must consider the characterization of the associated microbiome. The present review critically examines the microbiology and molecular ecology techniques that can be applied to the taxonomical and functional analysis of the microbiome of non-model insects. Our goal is to provide an overview of current approaches and methods addressing the ecology and functions of microorganisms and microbiomes associated with insects. Our focus is on operational details, aiming to provide a concise guide to currently available advanced techniques, in an effort to extend insect microbiome research beyond simple descriptions of microbial communities. PMID:26476138

  1. Ecological Interventionist Causal Models in Psychosis: Targeting Psychological Mechanisms in Daily Life.

    PubMed

    Reininghaus, Ulrich; Depp, Colin A; Myin-Germeys, Inez

    2016-03-01

    Integrated models of psychotic disorders have posited a number of putative psychological mechanisms that may contribute to the development of psychotic symptoms, but it is only recently that a modest amount of experience sampling research has provided evidence on their role in daily life, outside the research laboratory. A number of methodological challenges remain in evaluating specificity of potential causal links between a given psychological mechanism and psychosis outcomes in a systematic fashion, capitalizing on longitudinal data to investigate temporal ordering. In this article, we argue for testing ecological interventionist causal models that draw on real world and real-time delivered, ecological momentary interventions for generating evidence on several causal criteria (association, time order, and direction/sole plausibility) under real-world conditions, while maximizing generalizability to social contexts and experiences in heterogeneous populations. Specifically, this approach tests whether ecological momentary interventions can (1) modify a putative mechanism and (2) produce changes in the mechanism that lead to sustainable changes in intended psychosis outcomes in individuals' daily lives. Future research using this approach will provide translational evidence on the active ingredients of mobile health and in-person interventions that promote sustained effectiveness of ecological momentary interventions and, thereby, contribute to ongoing efforts that seek to enhance effectiveness of psychological interventions under real-world conditions. PMID:26707864

  2. Ecological risk assessment of water environment for Luanhe River Basin based on relative risk model.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jingling; Chen, Qiuying; Li, Yongli

    2010-11-01

    The relative risk model (RRM) was applied in regional ecological risk assessments successfully. In this study, the RRM was developed through increasing the data of risk source and introducing the source-stressor-habitat exposure filter (SSH), the endpoint-habitat exposure filter (EH) and the stressor-endpoint effect filter (SE) to reflect the meaning of exposure and effect more explicit. Water environment which include water quality, water quantity and aquatic ecosystems was selected as the ecological risk assessment endpoints. The Luanhe River Basin located in the North China was selected as model case. The results showed that there were three low risk regions, one medium risk region and two high risk regions in the Luanhe River Basin. The results also indicated habitat destruction was the largest stressor with the risk scores as high as 11.87 for the Luanhe water environment, the second was oxygen consuming organic pollutants (9.28) and the third was nutrients (7.78). So these three stressors were the main influencing factors of the ecological pressure in the study area. Furthermore, animal husbandry was the biggest source with the risk scores as high as 20.38, the second was domestic sewage (14.00), and the third was polluting industry (9.96). For habitats, waters and farmland were enduring the bigger pressure and should be taken considerable attention. Water deterioration and ecological service values damaged were facing the biggest risk pressure, and secondly was biodiversity decreased and landscape fragmentation. PMID:20683654

  3. Multiannual simulations with the Mars climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Haberle, R. M.; Houben, Howard C.; Young, R. E.

    1993-01-01

    The martian atmospheric circulaton for 10 Mars years was simulated using a simplified three-dimensional climate model that is briefly described below. Analysis of these simulations reveals several interesting behaviors not previously recognized in other three-dimensional models. The first concerns the potential for interannual variability in the martian climate system. It is now known from the aperiodic frequency of planet-encircling storms, as well as differences in atmospheric water vapor from one year to the next, that the real planet exhibits interannual variations. The results of our simulations also show significant interannual variability and, interestingly, that variability maximizes during southern spring, the dust storm season. A second and related finding is that transient eddies in the southern hemisphere during winter are indeed weaker than their northern hemisphere counterparts as was found in more sophisticated models. However, southern hemisphere eddy activity rises dramatically during spring and is greater than that in the northern hemisphere at any season.

  4. Analyzing Strategic Business Rules through Simulation Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orta, Elena; Ruiz, Mercedes; Toro, Miguel

    Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) holds promise for business agility since it allows business process to change to meet new customer demands or market needs without causing a cascade effect of changes in the underlying IT systems. Business rules are the instrument chosen to help business and IT to collaborate. In this paper, we propose the utilization of simulation models to model and simulate strategic business rules that are then disaggregated at different levels of an SOA architecture. Our proposal is aimed to help find a good configuration for strategic business objectives and IT parameters. The paper includes a case study where a simulation model is built to help business decision-making in a context where finding a good configuration for different business parameters and performance is too complex to analyze by trial and error.

  5. Use of an integrated flow model to estimate ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics at stream biomonitoring sites

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kennen, J.G.; Kauffman, L.J.; Ayers, M.A.; Wolock, D.M.; Colarullo, S.J.

    2008-01-01

    We developed an integrated hydroecological model to provide a comprehensive set of hydrologic variables representing five major components of the flow regime at 856 aquatic-invertebrate monitoring sites in New Jersey. The hydroecological model simulates streamflow by routing water that moves overland and through the subsurface from atmospheric delivery to the watershed outlet. Snow accumulation and melt, evapotranspiration, precipitation, withdrawals, discharges, pervious- and impervious-area runoff, and lake storage were accounted for in the water balance. We generated more than 78 flow variables, which describe the frequency, magnitude, duration, rate of change, and timing of flow events. Highly correlated variables were filtered by principal component analysis to obtain a non-redundant subset of variables that explain the majority of the variation in the complete set. This subset of variables was used to evaluate the effect of changes in the flow regime on aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure at 856 biomonitoring sites. We used non-metric multidimensional scaling (NMS) to evaluate variation in aquatic-invertebrate assemblage structure across a disturbance gradient. We employed multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis to build a series of MLR models that identify the most important environmental and hydrologic variables driving the differences in the aquatic-invertebrate assemblages across the disturbance gradient. The first axis of NMS ordination was significantly related to many hydrologic, habitat, and land-use/land-cover variables, including the average number of annual storms producing runoff, ratio of 25-75% exceedance flow (flashiness), diversity of natural stream substrate, and the percentage of forested land near the stream channel (forest buffer). Modifications in the hydrologic regime as the result of changes in watershed land use appear to promote the retention of highly tolerant aquatic species; in contrast, species that are sensitive to hydrologic instability and other anthropogenic disturbance become much less prevalent. We also found strong relations between an index of invertebrate-assemblage impairment, its component metrics, and the primary disturbance gradient. The process-oriented watershed modeling approach used in this study provides a means to evaluate how natural landscape features interact with anthropogenic factors and assess their effects on flow characteristics and stream ecology. By combining watershed modeling and indirect ordination techniques, we were able to identify components of the hydrologic regime that have a considerable effect on aquatic-assemblage structure and help in developing short- and long-term management measures that mitigate the effects of anthropogenic disturbance in stream systems.

  6. Hydrodynamic simulations of propellers: Isothermal model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seiß, M.; Hoffmann, H.; Spahn, F.

    2015-10-01

    Small moons embedded in Saturn's rings can cause S-shaped density structures, called propellers, in their close vicinity. This structures have been predicted first on base of a combined model involving gravitational scattering of test particles (creating the structure) and diffusion (smearing out the structure) [1, 2]. The propeller model was confirmed later with the help of Nbody simulations showing the additional appearance of moon wakes adjacent to the S-shaped gaps [3, 4]. It was a great success of the Cassini mission when the propeller were detected in the ISS imaging [5, 6] and UVIS occultation data [7]. Here we present an isothermal hydrodynamic simulation of a propeller as a further development of the original model [1, 2] where gravitational scattering and diffusion had to be treated separately. With this new approach we prove the correctness of the predicted scaling laws for the radial and azimuthal extent of the propeller. Furthermore, we will show a comparison between results of N-body and hydrodynamic simulations. Finally, we will present simulation results of the giant propeller Bleriot, which can not be modeled by N-body simulations in its full extent yet.

  7. Distributed earth model/orbiter simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Geisler, Erik; Mcclanahan, Scott; Smith, Gary

    1989-01-01

    Distributed Earth Model/Orbiter Simulation (DEMOS) is a network based application developed for the UNIX environment that visually monitors or simulates the Earth and any number of orbiting vehicles. Its purpose is to provide Mission Control Center (MCC) flight controllers with a visually accurate three dimensional (3D) model of the Earth, Sun, Moon and orbiters, driven by real time or simulated data. The project incorporates a graphical user interface, 3D modelling employing state-of-the art hardware, and simulation of orbital mechanics in a networked/distributed environment. The user interface is based on the X Window System and the X Ray toolbox. The 3D modelling utilizes the Programmer's Hierarchical Interactive Graphics System (PHIGS) standard and Raster Technologies hardware for rendering/display performance. The simulation of orbiting vehicles uses two methods of vector propagation implemented with standard UNIX/C for portability. Each part is a distinct process that can run on separate nodes of a network, exploiting each node's unique hardware capabilities. The client/server communication architecture of the application can be reused for a variety of distributed applications.

  8. Common modeling system for digital simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Painter, Rick

    1994-01-01

    The Joint Modeling and Simulation System is a tri-service investigation into a common modeling framework for the development digital models. The basis for the success of this framework is an X-window-based, open systems architecture, object-based/oriented methodology, standard interface approach to digital model construction, configuration, execution, and post processing. For years Department of Defense (DOD) agencies have produced various weapon systems/technologies and typically digital representations of the systems/technologies. These digital representations (models) have also been developed for other reasons such as studies and analysis, Cost Effectiveness Analysis (COEA) tradeoffs, etc. Unfortunately, there have been no Modeling and Simulation (M&S) standards, guidelines, or efforts towards commonality in DOD M&S. The typical scenario is an organization hires a contractor to build hardware and in doing so an digital model may be constructed. Until recently, this model was not even obtained by the organization. Even if it was procured, it was on a unique platform, in a unique language, with unique interfaces, and, with the result being UNIQUE maintenance required. Additionally, the constructors of the model expended more effort in writing the 'infrastructure' of the model/simulation (e.g. user interface, database/database management system, data journalizing/archiving, graphical presentations, environment characteristics, other components in the simulation, etc.) than in producing the model of the desired system. Other side effects include: duplication of efforts; varying assumptions; lack of credibility/validation; and decentralization in policy and execution. J-MASS provides the infrastructure, standards, toolset, and architecture to permit M&S developers and analysts to concentrate on the their area of interest.

  9. Ecological hierarchies and self-organisation - Pattern analysis, modelling and process integration across scales

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reuter, H.; Jopp, F.; Blanco-Moreno, J. M.; Damgaard, C.; Matsinos, Y.; DeAngelis, D.L.

    2010-01-01

    A continuing discussion in applied and theoretical ecology focuses on the relationship of different organisational levels and on how ecological systems interact across scales. We address principal approaches to cope with complex across-level issues in ecology by applying elements of hierarchy theory and the theory of complex adaptive systems. A top-down approach, often characterised by the use of statistical techniques, can be applied to analyse large-scale dynamics and identify constraints exerted on lower levels. Current developments are illustrated with examples from the analysis of within-community spatial patterns and large-scale vegetation patterns. A bottom-up approach allows one to elucidate how interactions of individuals shape dynamics at higher levels in a self-organisation process; e.g., population development and community composition. This may be facilitated by various modelling tools, which provide the distinction between focal levels and resulting properties. For instance, resilience in grassland communities has been analysed with a cellular automaton approach, and the driving forces in rodent population oscillations have been identified with an agent-based model. Both modelling tools illustrate the principles of analysing higher level processes by representing the interactions of basic components.The focus of most ecological investigations on either top-down or bottom-up approaches may not be appropriate, if strong cross-scale relationships predominate. Here, we propose an 'across-scale-approach', closely interweaving the inherent potentials of both approaches. This combination of analytical and synthesising approaches will enable ecologists to establish a more coherent access to cross-level interactions in ecological systems. ?? 2010 Gesellschaft f??r ??kologie.

  10. Modeling surgical skill learning with cognitive simulation.

    PubMed

    Park, Shi-Hyun; Suh, Irene H; Chien, Jung-hung; Paik, Jaehyon; Ritter, Frank E; Oleynikov, Dmitry; Siu, Ka-Chun

    2011-01-01

    We used a cognitive architecture (ACT-R) to explore the procedural learning of surgical tasks and then to understand the process of perceptual motor learning and skill decay in surgical skill performance. The ACT-R cognitive model simulates declarative memory processes during motor learning. In this ongoing study, four surgical tasks (bimanual carrying, peg transfer, needle passing, and suture tying) were performed using the da Vinci© surgical system. Preliminary results revealed that an ACT-R model produced similar learning effects. Cognitive simulation can be used to demonstrate and optimize the perceptual motor learning and skill decay in surgical skill training. PMID:21335834

  11. METC Gasifier Advanced Simulation (MGAS) model

    SciTech Connect

    Syamlal, M.; Bissett, L.A.

    1992-01-01

    Morgantown Energy Technology Center is developing an advanced moving-bed gasifier, which is the centerpiece of the Integrated Gasifier Combined-Cycle (IGCC) system, with the features of good efficiency, low cost, and minimal environmental impact. A mathematical model of the gasifier, the METC-Gasifier Advanced Simulation (MGAS) model, has been developed for the analysis and design of advanced gasifiers and other moving-bed gasifiers. This report contains the technical and the user manuals of the MGAS model. The MGAS model can describe the transient operation of coflow, counterflow, or fixed-bed gasifiers. It is a one-dimensional model and can simulate the addition and withdrawal of gas and solids at multiple locations in the bed, a feature essential for simulating beds with recycle. The model describes the reactor in terms of a gas phase and a solids (coal or char) phase. These phases may exist at different temperatures. The model considers several combustion, gasification, and initial stage reactions. The model consists of a set of mass balances for 14 gas species and three coal (pseudo-) species and energy balances for the gas and the solids phases. The resulting partial differential equations are solved using a finite difference technique.

  12. An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu.

    PubMed

    Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H; Tinker, Martin T; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui). PMID:25343723

  13. An online database for informing ecological network models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Tinker, M. Tim; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H.; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison C.

    2014-01-01

    Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/data​baseui).

  14. An Online Database for Informing Ecological Network Models: http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu

    PubMed Central

    Beas-Luna, Rodrigo; Novak, Mark; Carr, Mark H.; Tinker, Martin T.; Black, August; Caselle, Jennifer E.; Hoban, Michael; Malone, Dan; Iles, Alison

    2014-01-01

    Ecological network models and analyses are recognized as valuable tools for understanding the dynamics and resiliency of ecosystems, and for informing ecosystem-based approaches to management. However, few databases exist that can provide the life history, demographic and species interaction information necessary to parameterize ecological network models. Faced with the difficulty of synthesizing the information required to construct models for kelp forest ecosystems along the West Coast of North America, we developed an online database (http://kelpforest.ucsc.edu/) to facilitate the collation and dissemination of such information. Many of the database's attributes are novel yet the structure is applicable and adaptable to other ecosystem modeling efforts. Information for each taxonomic unit includes stage-specific life history, demography, and body-size allometries. Species interactions include trophic, competitive, facilitative, and parasitic forms. Each data entry is temporally and spatially explicit. The online data entry interface allows researchers anywhere to contribute and access information. Quality control is facilitated by attributing each entry to unique contributor identities and source citations. The database has proven useful as an archive of species and ecosystem-specific information in the development of several ecological network models, for informing management actions, and for education purposes (e.g., undergraduate and graduate training). To facilitate adaptation of the database by other researches for other ecosystems, the code and technical details on how to customize this database and apply it to other ecosystems are freely available and located at the following link (https://github.com/kelpforest-cameo/databaseui). PMID:25343723

  15. A 2-D process-based model for suspended sediment dynamics: a first step towards ecological modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Achete, F. M.; van der Wegen, M.; Roelvink, D.; Jaffe, B.

    2015-02-01

    In estuaries most of the sediment load is carried in suspension. Sediment dynamics differ depending on sediment supply and hydrodynamic forcing conditions that vary over space and over time. Suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is one of the most important contributors to turbidity, which influences habitat conditions and ecological functions of the system. A robust sediment model is the first step towards a chain of model including contaminants and phytoplankton dynamics and habitat modeling. This works aims to determine turbidity levels in the complex-geometry Delta of San Francisco Estuary using a process-based approach (D-Flow Flexible Mesh software). Our approach includes a detailed calibration against measured SSC levels, a sensitivity analysis on model parameters, the determination of a yearly sediment budget as well as an assessment of model results in terms of turbidity levels for a single year (Water Year 2011). Model results shows that our process-based approach is a valuable tool in assessing sediment dynamics and their related ecological parameters over a range of spatial and temporal scales. The current model may act as the base model for a chain of ecological models and climate scenario forecasting.

  16. Using historical and projected future climate model simulations as drivers of agricultural and biological models (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefanova, L. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate model evaluation is frequently performed as a first step in analyzing climate change simulations. Atmospheric scientists are accustomed to evaluating climate models through the assessment of model climatology and biases, the models' representation of large-scale modes of variability (such as ENSO, PDO, AMO, etc) and the relationship between these modes and local variability (e.g. the connection between ENSO and the wintertime precipitation in the Southeast US). While these provide valuable information about the fidelity of historical and projected climate model simulations from an atmospheric scientist's point of view, the application of climate model data to fields such as agriculture, ecology and biology may require additional analyses focused on the particular application's requirements and sensitivities. Typically, historical climate simulations are used to determine a mapping between the model and observed climate, either through a simple (additive for temperature or multiplicative for precipitation) or a more sophisticated (such as quantile matching) bias correction on a monthly or seasonal time scale. Plants, animals and humans however are not directly affected by monthly or seasonal means. To assess the impact of projected climate change on living organisms and related industries (e.g. agriculture, forestry, conservation, utilities, etc.), derivative measures such as the heating degree-days (HDD), cooling degree-days (CDD), growing degree-days (GDD), accumulated chill hours (ACH), wet season onset (WSO) and duration (WSD), among others, are frequently useful. We will present a comparison of the projected changes in such derivative measures calculated by applying: (a) the traditional temperature/precipitation bias correction described above versus (b) a bias correction based on the mapping between the historical model and observed derivative measures themselves. In addition, we will present and discuss examples of various application-based climate model evaluations, such as: (a) agricultural crop yield estimates and (b) species population viability estimates modeled using observed climate data vs. historical climate simulations.

  17. Conceptualizing Ecology: A Learning Cycle Approach.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lauer, Thomas E.

    2003-01-01

    Proposes a teaching strategy to teach ecological concepts and terminology through the use of games and simulations. Includes examples from physiological ecology, population ecology, and ecosystem ecology. (Author/SOE)

  18. Do Ecological Niche Models Accurately Identify Climatic Determinants of Species Ranges?

    PubMed

    Searcy, Christopher A; Shaffer, H Bradley

    2016-04-01

    Defining species' niches is central to understanding their distributions and is thus fundamental to basic ecology and climate change projections. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are a key component of making accurate projections and include descriptions of the niche in terms of both response curves and rankings of variable importance. In this study, we evaluate Maxent's ranking of environmental variables based on their importance in delimiting species' range boundaries by asking whether these same variables also govern annual recruitment based on long-term demographic studies. We found that Maxent-based assessments of variable importance in setting range boundaries in the California tiger salamander (Ambystoma californiense; CTS) correlate very well with how important those variables are in governing ongoing recruitment of CTS at the population level. This strong correlation suggests that Maxent's ranking of variable importance captures biologically realistic assessments of factors governing population persistence. However, this result holds only when Maxent models are built using best-practice procedures and variables are ranked based on permutation importance. Our study highlights the need for building high-quality niche models and provides encouraging evidence that when such models are built, they can reflect important aspects of a species' ecology. PMID:27028071

  19. A Transmission Model for the Ecology of an Avian Blood Parasite in a Temperate Ecosystem

    PubMed Central

    Murdock, Courtney C.; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Simon, Carl P.

    2013-01-01

    Most of our knowledge about avian haemosporidian parasites comes from the Hawaiian archipelago, where recently introduced Plasmodiumrelictum has contributed to the extinction of many endemic avian species. While the ecology of invasive malaria is reasonably understood, the ecology of endemic haemosporidian infection in mainland systems is poorly understood, even though it is the rule rather than the exception. We develop a mathematical model to explore and identify the ecological factors that most influence transmission of the common avian parasite, Leucocytozoonfringillinarum (Apicomplexa). The model was parameterized from White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichialeucophrys) and S. silvestre / craigi black fly populations breeding in an alpine ecosystem. We identify and examine the importance of altricial nestlings, the seasonal relapse of infected birds for parasite persistence across breeding seasons, and potential impacts of seasonal changes in black fly emergence on parasite prevalence in a high elevation temperate system. We also use the model to identify and estimate the parameters most influencing transmission dynamics. Our analysis found that relapse of adult birds and young of the year birds were crucial for parasite persistence across multiple seasons. However, distinguishing between nude nestlings and feathered young of the year was unnecessary. Finally, due to model sensitivity to many black fly parameters, parasite prevalence and sparrow recruitment may be most affected by seasonal changes in environmental temperature driving shifts in black fly emergence and gonotrophic cycles. PMID:24073288

  20. A transmission model for the ecology of an avian blood parasite in a temperate ecosystem.

    PubMed

    Murdock, Courtney C; Foufopoulos, Johannes; Simon, Carl P

    2013-01-01

    Most of our knowledge about avian haemosporidian parasites comes from the Hawaiian archipelago, where recently introduced Plasmodiumrelictum has contributed to the extinction of many endemic avian species. While the ecology of invasive malaria is reasonably understood, the ecology of endemic haemosporidian infection in mainland systems is poorly understood, even though it is the rule rather than the exception. We develop a mathematical model to explore and identify the ecological factors that most influence transmission of the common avian parasite, Leucocytozoonfringillinarum (Apicomplexa). The model was parameterized from White-crowned Sparrow (Zonotrichialeucophrys) and S. silvestre / craigi black fly populations breeding in an alpine ecosystem. We identify and examine the importance of altricial nestlings, the seasonal relapse of infected birds for parasite persistence across breeding seasons, and potential impacts of seasonal changes in black fly emergence on parasite prevalence in a high elevation temperate system. We also use the model to identify and estimate the parameters most influencing transmission dynamics. Our analysis found that relapse of adult birds and young of the year birds were crucial for parasite persistence across multiple seasons. However, distinguishing between nude nestlings and feathered young of the year was unnecessary. Finally, due to model sensitivity to many black fly parameters, parasite prevalence and sparrow recruitment may be most affected by seasonal changes in environmental temperature driving shifts in black fly emergence and gonotrophic cycles. PMID:24073288

  1. Ecological interpretation of short-term toxicity results: Development of a population model for Arbacia

    SciTech Connect

    Munns, W.R. Jr.; Nacci, D.E.; Walker, H.A.; Johnston, R.K.

    1994-12-31

    The Arbacia punctulata fertilization and larval development tests are used extensively in regulatory and research programs to evaluate toxicity associated with contaminants in aqueous media. These short-term assays are inexpensive, easy to use, and provide information regarding the effects of environmental contaminants on critical life history stages of the sea urchin. Despite substantial consideration of the precision of assay methods, and a clear understanding of the statistical significance of treatment differences, an appreciation of the ecological significance of treatment effects is lacking. To address this problem, a stage classified population projection model was developed to relate short-term test endpoints to potential effects at the population level. The model was applied to evaluate population-level effects using short-term toxicity data obtained in an estuarine ecological risk assessment conducted for Portsmouth Naval Shipyard, Kittery, Maine. The model also was used to examine which test endpoints provide useful information relative to population growth dynamics. Population modeling approaches can be extremely valuable in extrapolating single species toxicity information to higher level ecological endpoints and for identifying appropriate measurement endpoints during toxicity test development.

  2. Modeling Galaxy CO Simulations as an Observer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamenetzky, Julia R.; Privon, George C.; Narayanan, Desika

    2016-01-01

    Our new ability to comprehensively model CO emission from J=1-0 to J=13-12 is one legacy of the SPIRE FTS onboard the Herschel Space Observatory. Much attention has been paid to this dataset by both theorists and observers, due to these lines' ability to probe the warm, highly excited molecular gas that may be associated with star formation. We are investigating the CO excitation ladders produced by the numerical simulations of disc galaxies and galaxy mergers (Narayanan and Krumholz 2014). Using one- and two-component non-LTE RADEX models, we compare the physical conditions derived from modeling the unresolved CO as SPIRE observers would with the known gas properties and distributions of the simulations. Our goal is to better understand the meaning of the derived physical conditions when modeling unresolved continuous gas distributions as discrete physical components over the CO ladder.

  3. An ecological model of the impact of sexual assault on women's mental health.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Rebecca; Dworkin, Emily; Cabral, Giannina

    2009-07-01

    This review examines the psychological impact of adult sexual assault through an ecological theoretical perspective to understand how factors at multiple levels of the social ecology contribute to post-assault sequelae. Using Bronfenbrenner's (1979, 1986, 1995) ecological theory of human development, we examine how individual-level factors (e.g., sociodemographics, biological/genetic factors), assault characteristics (e.g., victim-offender relationship, injury, alcohol use), microsystem factors (e.g., informal support from family and friends), meso/ exosystem factors (e.g., contact with the legal, medical, and mental health systems, and rape crisis centers), macrosystem factors (e.g., societal rape myth acceptance), and chronosystem factors (e.g., sexual revictimization and history of other victimizations) affect adult sexual assault survivors' mental health outcomes (e.g., post-traumatic stress disorder, depression, suicidality, and substance use). Self-blame is conceptualized as meta-construct that stems from all levels of this ecological model. Implications for curbing and/or preventing the negative mental health effects of sexual assault are discussed. PMID:19433406

  4. Nutritional models for a Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS): Linear mathematical modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wade, Rose C.

    1989-01-01

    The NASA Controlled Ecological Life Support System (CELSS) Program is involved in developing a biogenerative life support system that will supply food, air, and water to space crews on long-duration missions. An important part of this effort is in development of the knowledge and technological capability of producing and processing foods to provide optimal diets for space crews. This involves such interrelated factors as determination of the diet, based on knowledge of nutrient needs of humans and adjustments in those needs that may be required as a result of the conditions of long-duration space flight; determination of the optimal mixture of crops required to provide nutrients at levels that are sufficient but not excessive or toxic; and consideration of the critical issues of spacecraft space and power limitations, which impose a phytomass minimization requirement. The complex interactions among these factors are examined with the goal of supplying a diet that will satisfy human needs while minimizing the total phytomass requirement. The approach taken was to collect plant nutritional composition and phytomass production data, identify human nutritional needs and estimate the adjustments to the nutrient requirements likely to result from space flight, and then to generate mathematical models from these data.

  5. Center for Advanced Modeling and Simulation Intern

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, Vanessa

    2010-01-01

    Some interns just copy papers and seal envelopes. Not at INL! Check out how Vanessa Gertman, an INL intern working at the Center for Advanced Modeling and Simulation, spent her summer working with some intense visualization software. Lots more content like this is available at INL's facebook page http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  6. Simulation Modeling on the Macintosh using STELLA.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costanza, Robert

    1987-01-01

    Describes a new software package for the Apple Macintosh computer which can be used to create elaborate simulation models in a fraction of the time usually required without using a programming language. Illustrates the use of the software which relates to water usage. (TW)

  7. Physical SEU model for circuit simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Peczalski, A.; Bergman, J.; Berndt, D.; Lai, C.

    1988-12-01

    An SEU model of a bipolar transistor based on device and ion- track physical parameters has been incorporated into standard SPICE. Less than 50% error has been observed between experimental and simulation data on five device configurations and six flip-flops under different biases and for hits from five ion types.

  8. Love Kills:. Simulations in Penna Ageing Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, Dietrich; Cebrat, Stanisław; Penna, T. J. P.; Sousa, A. O.

    The standard Penna ageing model with sexual reproduction is enlarged by adding additional bit-strings for love: Marriage happens only if the male love strings are sufficiently different from the female ones. We simulate at what level of required difference the population dies out.

  9. WATER SUPPLY SIMULATION MODEL. VOLUME 3. DOCUMENTATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This three-volume report describes the development of a water supply simulation model (WSSM), a system of computer programs that allows for a systematic evaluation of the physical and economic characteristics of a water distribution system in a spatial framework. The WSSM concept...

  10. Center for Advanced Modeling and Simulation Intern

    ScienceCinema

    Gertman, Vanessa

    2013-05-28

    Some interns just copy papers and seal envelopes. Not at INL! Check out how Vanessa Gertman, an INL intern working at the Center for Advanced Modeling and Simulation, spent her summer working with some intense visualization software. Lots more content like this is available at INL's facebook page http://www.facebook.com/idahonationallaboratory.

  11. Upscaling aquatic ecology: Pairing modern analytics with Big Data to simulate 2500 U.S. lakes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, J. S.; Winslow, L.; Hansen, G.; Van Den Hoek, J.; Markfort, C. D.; Booth, N.

    2013-12-01

    Lakes are increasingly recognized as relevant engines in global processes, as recent estimates of the number of lakes and their contribution to biogeochemical cycles greatly exceed estimates from earlier assessments. Currently, our understanding of the diversity of physical controls on lake ecosystems is lacking, in part due to geographically limited observational campaigns and a failure to integrate Big Data products and informatics into modern limnological science practices. Momentum towards the interoperability of cyber-infrastructure in the fields of hydrology, climatology, remote sensing, and the geosciences has provided timely access to the pursuit of research aimed at upscaling our knowledge of the drivers of aquatic ecosystems. Here we share details of an open-source, standards-based data manipulation framework and one-dimensional model that were used to simulate water temperature dynamics for thousands of individual lakes. In addition to the automated scaling of gridded meteorological driver data, we integrated satellite estimates of water clarity and surrounding canopy heights in order to parameterize important lake-specific characteristics that influence lake physics. These methods keep terabyte-scale data off of the desktop through the use of web processing services, which performed many of our data-rich and computationally intensive tasks. We highlight results from a regional test-bed (the state of Wisconsin), as well as discuss opportunities for aquatic ecologists to leverage future pairings between Big Data and web-informatics. Supporting datasets include satellite imagery, space and airborne LIDAR, gridded climate reanalysis data, hydrography inventories, and citizen scientist measurements of water temperature; all components of the successful modeling of daily water temperature profiles for 2,500 lakes during 1979-2011. These results are being used to explain the long-term climate component of trends in the populations of two staples of the statewide fishery (bass and walleye). This framework can be used to capture hydrodynamic processes across the full distribution of lakes, removing many of the barriers to limnological research questions at global and continental scales. Future efforts could improve our estimates of greenhouse gas transfer, available thermal habitat, and the coupled physical-biogeochemical responses of lakes to climate change.

  12. Twitter's tweet method modelling and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    This paper seeks to purpose the concept of Twitter marketing methods. The tools that Twitter provides are modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Twitter media-marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following models have been developed for a twitter marketing agent/company and tested in real circumstances and with real numbers. These models were finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, develop, simulate, test and evaluate. It also addresses these methods that suit most organized promotion through targeting, to the Twitter social media service. The validity and usefulness of these Twitter marketing methods models for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. It implements system dynamics concepts of Twitter marketing methods modelling and produce models of various Twitter marketing situations. The Tweet method that Twitter provides can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the profit of the company/agent.

  13. Adaptive System Modeling for Spacecraft Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, Justin

    2011-01-01

    This invention introduces a methodology and associated software tools for automatically learning spacecraft system models without any assumptions regarding system behavior. Data stream mining techniques were used to learn models for critical portions of the International Space Station (ISS) Electrical Power System (EPS). Evaluation on historical ISS telemetry data shows that adaptive system modeling reduces simulation error anywhere from 50 to 90 percent over existing approaches. The purpose of the methodology is to outline how someone can create accurate system models from sensor (telemetry) data. The purpose of the software is to support the methodology. The software provides analysis tools to design the adaptive models. The software also provides the algorithms to initially build system models and continuously update them from the latest streaming sensor data. The main strengths are as follows: Creates accurate spacecraft system models without in-depth system knowledge or any assumptions about system behavior. Automatically updates/calibrates system models using the latest streaming sensor data. Creates device specific models that capture the exact behavior of devices of the same type. Adapts to evolving systems. Can reduce computational complexity (faster simulations).

  14. Modelling non-Euclidean movement and landscape connectivity in highly structured ecological networks

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sutherland, Christopher; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The ecological distance SCR model uses spatially indexed capture-recapture data to estimate how activity patterns are influenced by landscape structure. As well as reducing bias in estimates of abundance, this approach provides biologically realistic representations of home range geometry, and direct information about species-landscape interactions. The incorporation of both structural (landscape) and functional (movement) components of connectivity provides a direct measure of species-specific landscape connectivity.

  15. Application of the social ecological model in folic acid public health initiatives.

    PubMed

    Quinn, Lisa A; Thompson, Sharon J; Ott, M Katherine

    2005-01-01

    All women of childbearing age who are capable of becoming pregnant should consume 0.4 mg/400 microg of folic acid daily. Folic acid decreases the incidence of neural tube defects in newborns. Despite continued public health initiatives, many women still do not consume the recommended daily requirement. This article analyzes the use of the social ecological model in folic acid public health initiatives and emphasizes assessing the outcomes of such initiatives. PMID:16282224

  16. Modelling the ecological consequences of whole tree harvest for bioenergy production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skår, Silje; Lange, Holger; Sogn, Trine

    2013-04-01

    There is an increasing demand for energy from biomass as a substitute to fossil fuels worldwide, and the Norwegian government plans to double the production of bioenergy to 9% of the national energy production or to 28 TWh per year by 2020. A large part of this increase may come from forests, which have a great potential with respect to biomass supply as forest growth increasingly has exceeded harvest in the last decades. One feasible option is the utilization of forest residues (needles, twigs and branches) in addition to stems, known as Whole Tree Harvest (WTH). As opposed to WTH, the residues are traditionally left in the forest with Conventional Timber Harvesting (CH). However, the residues contain a large share of the treés nutrients, indicating that WTH may possibly alter the supply of nutrients and organic matter to the soil and the forest ecosystem. This may potentially lead to reduced tree growth. Other implications can be nutrient imbalance, loss of carbon from the soil and changes in species composition and diversity. This study aims to identify key factors and appropriate strategies for ecologically sustainable WTH in Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest stands in Norway. We focus on identifying key factors driving soil organic matter, nutrients, biomass, biodiversity etc. Simulations of the effect on the carbon and nitrogen budget with the two harvesting methods will also be conducted. Data from field trials and long-term manipulation experiments are used to obtain a first overview of key variables. The relationships between the variables are hitherto unknown, but it is by no means obvious that they could be assumed as linear; thus, an ordinary multiple linear regression approach is expected to be insufficient. Here we apply two advanced and highly flexible modelling frameworks which hardly have been used in the context of tree growth, nutrient balances and biomass removal so far: Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) and Random Forests. Results obtained for GAMs so far show that there are differences between WTH and CH in two directions: both the significance of drivers and the shape of the response functions differ. GAMs turn out to be a flexible and powerful alternative to multivariate linear regression. The restriction to linear relationships seems to be unjustified in the present case. We use Random Forests as a highly efficient classifier which gives reliable estimates for the importance of each driver variable in determining the diameter growth for the two different harvesting treatments. Based on the final results of these two modelling approaches, the study contributes to find appropriate strategies and suitable regions (in Norway) where WTH may be sustainable performed.

  17. Advances in NLTE Modeling for Integrated Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Scott, H A; Hansen, S B

    2009-07-08

    The last few years have seen significant progress in constructing the atomic models required for non-local thermodynamic equilibrium (NLTE) simulations. Along with this has come an increased understanding of the requirements for accurately modeling the ionization balance, energy content and radiative properties of different elements for a wide range of densities and temperatures. Much of this progress is the result of a series of workshops dedicated to comparing the results from different codes and computational approaches applied to a series of test problems. The results of these workshops emphasized the importance of atomic model completeness, especially in doubly excited states and autoionization transitions, to calculating ionization balance, and the importance of accurate, detailed atomic data to producing reliable spectra. We describe a simple screened-hydrogenic model that calculates NLTE ionization balance with surprising accuracy, at a low enough computational cost for routine use in radiation-hydrodynamics codes. The model incorporates term splitting, {Delta}n = 0 transitions, and approximate UTA widths for spectral calculations, with results comparable to those of much more detailed codes. Simulations done with this model have been increasingly successful at matching experimental data for laser-driven systems and hohlraums. Accurate and efficient atomic models are just one requirement for integrated NLTE simulations. Coupling the atomic kinetics to hydrodynamics and radiation transport constrains both discretizations and algorithms to retain energy conservation, accuracy and stability. In particular, the strong coupling between radiation and populations can require either very short timesteps or significantly modified radiation transport algorithms to account for NLTE material response. Considerations such as these continue to provide challenges for NLTE simulations.

  18. Computational Spectrum of Agent Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Perumalla, Kalyan S

    2010-01-01

    The study of human social behavioral systems is finding renewed interest in military, homeland security and other applications. Simulation is the most generally applied approach to studying complex scenarios in such systems. Here, we outline some of the important considerations that underlie the computational aspects of simulation-based study of human social systems. The fundamental imprecision underlying questions and answers in social science makes it necessary to carefully distinguish among different simulation problem classes and to identify the most pertinent set of computational dimensions associated with those classes. We identify a few such classes and present their computational implications. The focus is then shifted to the most challenging combinations in the computational spectrum, namely, large-scale entity counts at moderate to high levels of fidelity. Recent developments in furthering the state-of-the-art in these challenging cases are outlined. A case study of large-scale agent simulation is provided in simulating large numbers (millions) of social entities at real-time speeds on inexpensive hardware. Recent computational results are identified that highlight the potential of modern high-end computing platforms to push the envelope with respect to speed, scale and fidelity of social system simulations. Finally, the problem of shielding the modeler or domain expert from the complex computational aspects is discussed and a few potential solution approaches are identified.

  19. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts

    PubMed Central

    Lade, Steven J.; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J.; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F.; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-01-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social–ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social–ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social–ecological models. PMID:26283344

  20. An empirical model of the Baltic Sea reveals the importance of social dynamics for ecological regime shifts.

    PubMed

    Lade, Steven J; Niiranen, Susa; Hentati-Sundberg, Jonas; Blenckner, Thorsten; Boonstra, Wiebren J; Orach, Kirill; Quaas, Martin F; Österblom, Henrik; Schlüter, Maja

    2015-09-01

    Regime shifts triggered by human activities and environmental changes have led to significant ecological and socioeconomic consequences in marine and terrestrial ecosystems worldwide. Ecological processes and feedbacks associated with regime shifts have received considerable attention, but human individual and collective behavior is rarely treated as an integrated component of such shifts. Here, we used generalized modeling to develop a coupled social-ecological model that integrated rich social and ecological data to investigate the role of social dynamics in the 1980s Baltic Sea cod boom and collapse. We showed that psychological, economic, and regulatory aspects of fisher decision making, in addition to ecological interactions, contributed both to the temporary persistence of the cod boom and to its subsequent collapse. These features of the social-ecological system also would have limited the effectiveness of stronger fishery regulations. Our results provide quantitative, empirical evidence that incorporating social dynamics into models of natural resources is critical for understanding how resources can be managed sustainably. We also show that generalized modeling, which is well-suited to collaborative model development and does not require detailed specification of causal relationships between system variables, can help tackle the complexities involved in creating and analyzing social-ecological models. PMID:26283344

  1. Development of stressor-response models for an ecological risk assessment case study

    SciTech Connect

    Nacci, D.E.; Munns, W.R.; Cayula, S.; Serbst, J.; Johnston, R.K.; Walker, H.A.

    1994-12-31

    An estuarine ecological risk assessment for the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (Kittery, ME) is being conducted following the US EPA`s Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). As part of the Analysis phase of the ERA, laboratory studies were conducted to develop stressor-response models for lead, the primary contaminant of concern. Thirty-day exposures to adult sea urchins, Arbacia punctulata, occurred via food or suspended sediment. Exposure media were amended with lead sulfate to 10--100 or 100--300 times uncontaminated levels for the Feeding or Sediment Experiments, respectively. The sea urchin experimental model was selected because it permitted the measurement of biological endpoints with significance at the population level (e.g., adult survival and reproduction success), including those used in standard marine bioassays (i.e., fertilization and larval development). Feeding Experiment treatments produced few effects. Sediment Experiment treatments resulted in reductions in survival, growth and reproductive output of exposed adults and were directly toxic to early lifestages. However, in uncontaminated sea water, gametes from Sediment Experiment adults fertilized and completed larval development normally. Data from these experimental systems will be used to produce models relating lead exposure to specific biological responses and, ultimately, ecological risk.

  2. Towards more ecologically realistic scenarios of plant uptake modelling for chemicals: PAHs in a small forest.

    PubMed

    Terzaghi, Elisa; Zacchello, Gabriele; Scacchi, Marco; Raspa, Giuseppe; Jones, Kevin C; Cerabolini, Bruno; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2015-02-01

    The importance of plants in the accumulation of organic contaminants from air and soil was recognized to the point that even regulatory predictive approaches now include a vegetation compartment or sub-compartment. However, it has recently been shown that many of such approaches lack ecological realism to properly evaluate the dynamic of air/plant/soil exchange, especially when environmental conditions are subject to sudden variations of meteorological or ecological parameters. This paper focuses on the development of a fully dynamic scenario in which the variability of concentrations of selected chemicals in air and plant leaves was studied weekly and related to the corresponding meteorological and ecological parameters, to the evaluate their influence. To develop scenarios for modelling purposes, two different sampling campaigns were performed to measure temporal variability of: 1) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations in air of a clearing and a forest site, as well as in leaves of two broadleaf species and 2) two important leaf and canopy traits, specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf area index (LAI). The aim was to evaluate in detail how the variability of meteorological and ecological parameters (SLA and LAI) can influence the uptake/release of organic contaminants by plants and therefore air concentrations. A principal component analysis demonstrated how both meteorological and ecological parameters jointly influence PAH air concentrations. SLA, LAI, as well as leaf density were showed to change over time and among species and to be directly proportional to leaf/canopy uptake rate. While hazelnut had the higher leaf uptake rate, maple became the most important species when considering the canopy uptake rate due to its higher LAI. Other species specific traits, such as the seasonal variation in production of new leaves and the timing of bud burst, were also shown to influence the uptake rate of PAHs by vegetation. PMID:25461034

  3. Robust three-body water simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tainter, C. J.; Pieniazek, P. A.; Lin, Y.-S.; Skinner, J. L.

    2011-05-01

    The most common potentials used in classical simulations of liquid water assume a pairwise additive form. Although these models have been very successful in reproducing many properties of liquid water at ambient conditions, none is able to describe accurately water throughout its complicated phase diagram. The primary reason for this is the neglect of many-body interactions. To this end, a simulation model with explicit three-body interactions was introduced recently [R. Kumar and J. L. Skinner, J. Phys. Chem. B 112, 8311 (2008), 10.1021/jp8009468]. This model was parameterized to fit the experimental O-O radial distribution function and diffusion constant. Herein we reparameterize the model, fitting to a wider range of experimental properties (diffusion constant, rotational correlation time, density for the liquid, liquid/vapor surface tension, melting point, and the ice Ih density). The robustness of the model is then verified by comparing simulation to experiment for a number of other quantities (enthalpy of vaporization, dielectric constant, Debye relaxation time, temperature of maximum density, and the temperature-dependent second and third virial coefficients), with good agreement.

  4. Fault diagnosis based on continuous simulation models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Feyock, Stefan

    1987-01-01

    The results are described of an investigation of techniques for using continuous simulation models as basis for reasoning about physical systems, with emphasis on the diagnosis of system faults. It is assumed that a continuous simulation model of the properly operating system is available. Malfunctions are diagnosed by posing the question: how can we make the model behave like that. The adjustments that must be made to the model to produce the observed behavior usually provide definitive clues to the nature of the malfunction. A novel application of Dijkstra's weakest precondition predicate transformer is used to derive the preconditions for producing the required model behavior. To minimize the size of the search space, an envisionment generator based on interval mathematics was developed. In addition to its intended application, the ability to generate qualitative state spaces automatically from quantitative simulations proved to be a fruitful avenue of investigation in its own right. Implementations of the Dijkstra transform and the envisionment generator are reproduced in the Appendix.

  5. Atmospheric Modeling And Sensor Simulation (AMASS) study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parker, K. G.

    1984-10-01

    The capabilities of the atmospheric modeling and sensor simulation (AMASS) system were studied in order to enhance them. This system is used in processing atmospheric measurements which are utilized in the evaluation of sensor performance, conducting design-concept simulation studies, and also in the modeling of the physical and dynamical nature of atmospheric processes. The study tasks proposed in order to both enhance the AMASS system utilization and to integrate the AMASS system with other existing equipment to facilitate the analysis of data for modeling and image processing are enumerated. The following array processors were evaluated for anticipated effectiveness and/or improvements in throughput by attachment of the device to the P-e: (1) Floating Point Systems AP-120B; (2) Floating Point Systems 5000; (3) CSP, Inc. MAP-400; (4) Analogic AP500; (5) Numerix MARS-432; and (6) Star Technologies, Inc. ST-100.

  6. Flight Simulation Model Exchange. Volume 2; Appendices

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murri, Daniel G.; Jackson, E. Bruce

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center Review Board sponsored an assessment of the draft Standard, Flight Dynamics Model Exchange Standard, BSR/ANSI-S-119-201x (S-119) that was conducted by simulation and guidance, navigation, and control engineers from several NASA Centers. The assessment team reviewed the conventions and formats spelled out in the draft Standard and the actual implementation of two example aerodynamic models (a subsonic F-16 and the HL-20 lifting body) encoded in the Extensible Markup Language grammar. During the implementation, the team kept records of lessons learned and provided feedback to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee representative. This document contains the appendices to the main report.

  7. Flight Simulation Model Exchange. Volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murri, Daniel G.; Jackson, E. Bruce

    2011-01-01

    The NASA Engineering and Safety Center Review Board sponsored an assessment of the draft Standard, Flight Dynamics Model Exchange Standard, BSR/ANSI-S-119-201x (S-119) that was conducted by simulation and guidance, navigation, and control engineers from several NASA Centers. The assessment team reviewed the conventions and formats spelled out in the draft Standard and the actual implementation of two example aerodynamic models (a subsonic F-16 and the HL-20 lifting body) encoded in the Extensible Markup Language grammar. During the implementation, the team kept records of lessons learned and provided feedback to the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics Modeling and Simulation Technical Committee representative. This document contains the results of the assessment.

  8. Atmospheric Modeling And Sensor Simulation (AMASS) study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, K. G.

    1984-01-01

    The capabilities of the atmospheric modeling and sensor simulation (AMASS) system were studied in order to enhance them. This system is used in processing atmospheric measurements which are utilized in the evaluation of sensor performance, conducting design-concept simulation studies, and also in the modeling of the physical and dynamical nature of atmospheric processes. The study tasks proposed in order to both enhance the AMASS system utilization and to integrate the AMASS system with other existing equipment to facilitate the analysis of data for modeling and image processing are enumerated. The following array processors were evaluated for anticipated effectiveness and/or improvements in throughput by attachment of the device to the P-e: (1) Floating Point Systems AP-120B; (2) Floating Point Systems 5000; (3) CSP, Inc. MAP-400; (4) Analogic AP500; (5) Numerix MARS-432; and (6) Star Technologies, Inc. ST-100.

  9. Compressible homogeneous shear: Simulation and modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sarkar, S.; Erlebacher, G.; Hussaini, M. Y.

    1992-01-01

    Compressibility effects were studied on turbulence by direct numerical simulation of homogeneous shear flow. A primary observation is that the growth of the turbulent kinetic energy decreases with increasing turbulent Mach number. The sinks provided by compressible dissipation and the pressure dilatation, along with reduced Reynolds shear stress, are shown to contribute to the reduced growth of kinetic energy. Models are proposed for these dilatational terms and verified by direct comparison with the simulations. The differences between the incompressible and compressible fields are brought out by the examination of spectra, statistical moments, and structure of the rate of strain tensor.

  10. Modeling and simulation of magnetic nanoparticle sensor.

    PubMed

    Makiranta, Jarkko; Lekkala, Jukka

    2005-01-01

    Sensitivity and detection limit of a magnetic nanoparticle sensor is modeled and simulated. A micro coil generates an alternating magnetic field which excites magnetic nanoparticles in its vicinity. A concentric sensing coil applies Faraday's law of induction measuring the excited magnetization of the magnetic particles at high frequency. A differential measurement compensates disturbances and the influence of the driving microcoil leaving only the signal caused by the magnetic particles. The sensing system can be used for detection of magnetic nanoparticle labels in immunological point of care diagnostics. The paper shows simulation results for a microcoil system capable of detecting a single superparamagnetic nanoparticle. PMID:17282422

  11. Electron precipitation models in global magnetosphere simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, B.; Lotko, W.; Brambles, O.; Wiltberger, M.; Lyon, J.

    2015-02-01

    General methods for improving the specification of electron precipitation in global simulations are described and implemented in the Lyon-Fedder-Mobarry (LFM) global simulation model, and the quality of its predictions for precipitation is assessed. LFM's existing diffuse and monoenergetic electron precipitation models are improved, and new models are developed for lower energy, broadband, and direct-entry cusp precipitation. The LFM simulation results for combined diffuse plus monoenergetic electron precipitation exhibit a quadratic increase in the hemispheric precipitation power as the intensity of solar wind driving increases, in contrast with the prediction from the OVATION Prime (OP) 2010 empirical precipitation model which increases linearly with driving intensity. Broadband precipitation power increases approximately linearly with driving intensity in both models. Comparisons of LFM and OP predictions with estimates of precipitating power derived from inversions of Polar satellite UVI images during a double substorm event (28-29 March 1998) show that the LFM peak precipitating power is >4× larger when using the improved precipitation model and most closely tracks the larger of three different inversion estimates. The OP prediction most closely tracks the double peaks in the intermediate inversion estimate, but it overestimates the precipitating power between the two substorms by a factor >2 relative to all other estimates. LFMs polar pattern of precipitating energy flux tracks that of OP for broadband precipitation exhibits good correlation with duskside region 1 currents for monoenergetic energy flux that OP misses and fails to produce sufficient diffuse precipitation power in the prenoon quadrant that is present in OP. The prenoon deficiency is most likely due to the absence of drift kinetic physics in the LFM simulation.

  12. A system for compartmental modelling and simulation.

    PubMed

    Leaning, M S; Boroujerdi, M A

    1991-06-01

    The paper describes a software package for modelling and simulating compartmental systems based upon a generalisation of the equations of compartmental systems. The aim is a versatile package which can be used for rapid model development. Its use is first illustrated in a number of simple classical examples. The power of the software--and more generally the methodology--is demonstrated by showing its application in developing a model-based system for insulin planning for diabetic patients. The software has been written in Pascal and runs on IBM PC and compatible computers. PMID:1914454

  13. Common Challenges for Ecological Modelling: Synthesis of Facilitated Discussions Held at the Symposia Organized for the Conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling in Quebec City, Canada (October 6-9, 2009)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The symposia organized for the conference of the International Society for Ecological Modelling (ISEM 2009) included facilitated discussion sessions following formal presentations. Each symposium focused on a specific subject, and all the subjects could be classified into three b...

  14. Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at the sub-continental scale: male gypsy moth flight phenology as an example

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Régnière, J.; Sharov, Alexei

    We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.

  15. Facebook's personal page modelling and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarlis, Apostolos S.; Sakas, Damianos P.; Vlachos, D. S.

    2015-02-01

    In this paper we will try to define the utility of Facebook's Personal Page marketing method. This tool that Facebook provides, is modelled and simulated using iThink in the context of a Facebook marketing agency. The paper has leveraged the system's dynamic paradigm to conduct Facebook marketing tools and methods modelling, using iThink™ system to implement them. It uses the design science research methodology for the proof of concept of the models and modelling processes. The following model has been developed for a social media marketing agent/company, Facebook platform oriented and tested in real circumstances. This model is finalized through a number of revisions and iterators of the design, development, simulation, testing and evaluation processes. The validity and usefulness of this Facebook marketing model for the day-to-day decision making are authenticated by the management of the company organization. Facebook's Personal Page method can be adjusted, depending on the situation, in order to maximize the total profit of the company which is to bring new customers, keep the interest of the old customers and deliver traffic to its website.

  16. Optimisation Strategies for Modelling and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Louchet, Jean

    2007-12-01

    Progress in computation techniques has been dramatically reducing the gap between modeling and simulation. Simulation as the natural outcome of modeling is used both as a tool to predict the behavior of natural or artificial systems, a tool to validate modeling, and a tool to build and refine models - in particular identify model internal parameters. In this paper we will concentrate upon the latter, model building and identification, using modern optimization techniques, through application examples taken from the digital imaging field. The first example is given by Image Processing with retrieval of known patterns in an image. The second example is taken from synthetic image animation: we show how it is possible to learn the model's internal physical parameters from actual trajectory examples, using Darwin-inspired evolutionary algorithms. In the third example, we will demonstrate how it is possible, when the problem cannot easily be handled by a reasonably simple optimization technique, to split the problem into simpler elements which can be efficiently evolved by an evolutionary optimization algorithm - which is now called "Parisian Evolution". The "Fly algorithm" is a realtime stereovision algorithm which skips conventional preliminary stages of image processing, now applied into mobile robotics and medical imaging. The main question left is now, to which degree is it possible to delegate to a computer a part of the physicist's role, which is to collect examples and build general laws from these examples?

  17. Deep Drawing Simulations With Different Polycrystalline Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duchêne, Laurent; de Montleau, Pierre; Bouvier, Salima; Habraken, Anne Marie

    2004-06-01

    The goal of this research is to study the anisotropic material behavior during forming processes, represented by both complex yield loci and kinematic-isotropic hardening models. A first part of this paper describes the main concepts of the `Stress-strain interpolation' model that has been implemented in the non-linear finite element code Lagamine. This model consists of a local description of the yield locus based on the texture of the material through the full constraints Taylor's model. The texture evolution due to plastic deformations is computed throughout the FEM simulations. This `local yield locus' approach was initially linked to the classical isotropic Swift hardening law. Recently, a more complex hardening model was implemented: the physically-based microstructural model of Teodosiu. It takes into account intergranular heterogeneity due to the evolution of dislocation structures, that affects isotropic and kinematic hardening. The influence of the hardening model is compared to the influence of the texture evolution thanks to deep drawing simulations.

  18. Pattern-oriented modelling: a ‘multi-scope’ for predictive systems ecology

    PubMed Central

    Grimm, Volker; Railsback, Steven F.

    2012-01-01

    Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels—especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour—is essential for making the science predictive. ‘Pattern-oriented modelling’ (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions. PMID:22144392

  19. Towards Better Coupling of Hydrological Simulation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Penton, D.; Stenson, M.; Leighton, B.; Bridgart, R.

    2012-12-01

    Standards for model interoperability and scientific workflow software provide techniques and tools for coupling hydrological simulation models. However, model builders are yet to realize the benefits of these and continue to write ad hoc implementations and scripts. Three case studies demonstrate different approaches to coupling models, the first using tight interfaces (OpenMI), the second using a scientific workflow system (Trident) and the third using a tailored execution engine (Delft Flood Early Warning System - Delft-FEWS). No approach was objectively better than any other approach. The foremost standard for coupling hydrological models is the Open Modeling Interface (OpenMI), which defines interfaces for models to interact. An implementation of the OpenMI standard involves defining interchange terms and writing a .NET/Java wrapper around the model. An execution wrapper such as OatC.GUI or Pipistrelle executes the models. The team built two OpenMI implementations for eWater Source river system models. Once built, it was easy to swap river system models. The team encountered technical challenges with versions of the .Net framework (3.5 calling 4.0) and with the performance of the execution wrappers when running daily simulations. By design, the OpenMI interfaces are general, leaving significant decisions around the semantics of the interfaces to the implementer. Increasingly, scientific workflow tools such as Kepler, Taverna and Trident are able to replace custom scripts. These tools aim to improve the provenance and reproducibility of processing tasks. In particular, Taverna and the myExperiment website have had success making many bioinformatics workflows reusable and sharable. The team constructed Trident activities for hydrological software including IQQM, REALM and eWater Source. They built an activity generator for model builders to build activities for particular river systems. The models were linked at a simulation level, without any daily time-step feedbacks. There was no obvious way to add daily time-step feedbacks without incurring a considerable performance penalty. The Delft-FEWS system connects hydrological models for flood warnings and forecasts in a workflow system. It provides a range of custom facilities for connecting real-time data services. A Delft-FEWS system was constructed to connect a series of eWater Source hydrological models using the batch forecast mode to orchestrate a time-stepping system. The system coupled a series of river models running daily through a service interface. The implementation did not easily support interoperability with other models; however, using command line calls and the file-system did allow a level of language independence. The case-studies covered the coupling of hydrological models through tight interfaces (OpenMI), broad scientific workflow software (Trident) and a tailored execution engine (Delft-FEWS). We found that no approach was objectively better than any other approach. OpenMI had the most flexible interfaces, Trident the best handling of provenance and Delft-FEWS provided a significant set of tools for ingesting and transforming data. The case studies revealed a need for stable execution wrappers, patterns for efficient cross-language interoperability, targeted semantics for hydrological simulation and better handling of daily simulation.

  20. A superbubble feedback model for galaxy simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, B. W.; Wadsley, J.; Benincasa, S. M.; Couchman, H. M. P.

    2014-08-01

    We present a new stellar feedback model that reproduces superbubbles. Superbubbles from clustered young stars evolve quite differently to individual supernovae and are substantially more efficient at generating gas motions. The essential new components of the model are thermal conduction, subgrid evaporation and a subgrid multiphase treatment for cases where the simulation mass resolution is insufficient to model the early stages of the superbubble. The multiphase stage is short compared to superbubble lifetimes. Thermal conduction physically regulates the hot gas mass without requiring a free parameter. Accurately following the hot component naturally avoids overcooling. Prior approaches tend to heat too much mass, leaving the hot interstellar medium (ISM) below 106 K and susceptible to rapid cooling unless ad hoc fixes were used. The hot phase also allows feedback energy to correctly accumulate from multiple, clustered sources, including stellar winds and supernovae. We employ high-resolution simulations of a single star cluster to show the model is insensitive to numerical resolution, unresolved ISM structure and suppression of conduction by magnetic fields. We also simulate a Milky Way analogue and a dwarf galaxy. Both galaxies show regulated star formation and produce strong outflows.

  1. Modeling and simulation of the human eye

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duran, R.; Ventura, L.; Nonato, L.; Bruno, O.

    2007-02-01

    The computational modeling of the human eye has been wide studied for different sectors of the scientific and technological community. One of the main reasons for this increasing interest is the possibility to reproduce eye optic properties by means of computational simulations, becoming possible the development of efficient devices to treat and to correct the problems of the vision. This work explores this aspect still little investigated of the modeling of the visual system, considering a computational sketch that make possible the use of real data in the modeling and simulation of the human visual system. This new approach makes possible the individual inquiry of the optic system, assisting in the construction of new techniques used to infer vital data in medical investigations. Using corneal topography to collect real data from patients, a computational model of cornea is constructed and a set of simulations were build to ensure the correctness of the system and to investigate the effect of corneal abnormalities in retinal image formation, such as Plcido Discs, Point Spread Function, Wave front and the projection of a real image and it's visualization on retina.

  2. Theory, modeling and simulation: Annual report 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, T.H. Jr.; Garrett, B.C.

    1994-07-01

    Developing the knowledge base needed to address the environmental restoration issues of the US Department of Energy requires a fundamental understanding of molecules and their interactions in insolation and in liquids, on surfaces, and at interfaces. To meet these needs, the PNL has established the Environmental and Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) and will soon begin construction of a new, collaborative research facility devoted to advancing the understanding of environmental molecular science. Research in the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation program (TMS), which is one of seven research directorates in the EMSL, will play a critical role in understanding molecular processes important in restoring DOE`s research, development and production sites, including understanding the migration and reactions of contaminants in soils and groundwater, the development of separation process for isolation of pollutants, the development of improved materials for waste storage, understanding the enzymatic reactions involved in the biodegradation of contaminants, and understanding the interaction of hazardous chemicals with living organisms. The research objectives of the TMS program are to apply available techniques to study fundamental molecular processes involved in natural and contaminated systems; to extend current techniques to treat molecular systems of future importance and to develop techniques for addressing problems that are computationally intractable at present; to apply molecular modeling techniques to simulate molecular processes occurring in the multispecies, multiphase systems characteristic of natural and polluted environments; and to extend current molecular modeling techniques to treat complex molecular systems and to improve the reliability and accuracy of such simulations. The program contains three research activities: Molecular Theory/Modeling, Solid State Theory, and Biomolecular Modeling/Simulation. Extended abstracts are presented for 89 studies.

  3. Testing a Social Ecological Model for Relations between Political Violence and Child Adjustment in Northern Ireland

    PubMed Central

    Cummings, E. Mark; Merrilees, Christine E.; Schermerhorn, Alice C.; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C.; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2013-01-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of inter-relations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M= 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children’s regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members’ reports of current sectarian and non-sectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children’s emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children’s adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world. PMID:20423550

  4. Applications of next generation sequencing in molecular ecology of non-model organisms

    PubMed Central

    Ekblom, R; Galindo, J

    2011-01-01

    As most biologists are probably aware, technological advances in molecular biology during the last few years have opened up possibilities to rapidly generate large-scale sequencing data from non-model organisms at a reasonable cost. In an era when virtually any study organism can ‘go genomic', it is worthwhile to review how this may impact molecular ecology. The first studies to put the next generation sequencing (NGS) to the test in ecologically well-characterized species without previous genome information were published in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. Since then several studies have followed in their footsteps, and a large number are undoubtedly under way. This review focuses on how NGS has been, and can be, applied to ecological, population genetic and conservation genetic studies of non-model species, in which there is no (or very limited) genomic resources. Our aim is to draw attention to the various possibilities that are opening up using the new technologies, but we also highlight some of the pitfalls and drawbacks with these methods. We will try to provide a snapshot of the current state of the art for this rapidly advancing and expanding field of research and give some likely directions for future developments. PMID:21139633

  5. Testing a social ecological model for relations between political violence and child adjustment in Northern Ireland.

    PubMed

    Cummings, E Mark; Merrilees, Christine E; Schermerhorn, Alice C; Goeke-Morey, Marcie C; Shirlow, Peter; Cairns, Ed

    2010-05-01

    Relations between political violence and child adjustment are matters of international concern. Past research demonstrates the significance of community, family, and child psychological processes in child adjustment, supporting study of interrelations between multiple social ecological factors and child adjustment in contexts of political violence. Testing a social ecological model, 300 mothers and their children (M = 12.28 years, SD = 1.77) from Catholic and Protestant working class neighborhoods in Belfast, Northern Ireland, completed measures of community discord, family relations, and children's regulatory processes (i.e., emotional security) and outcomes. Historical political violence in neighborhoods based on objective records (i.e., politically motivated deaths) were related to family members' reports of current sectarian antisocial behavior and nonsectarian antisocial behavior. Interparental conflict and parental monitoring and children's emotional security about both the community and family contributed to explanatory pathways for relations between sectarian antisocial behavior in communities and children's adjustment problems. The discussion evaluates support for social ecological models for relations between political violence and child adjustment and its implications for understanding relations in other parts of the world. PMID:20423550

  6. eShopper modeling and simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrushin, Valery A.

    2001-03-01

    The advent of e-commerce gives an opportunity to shift the paradigm of customer communication into a highly interactive mode. The new generation of commercial Web servers, such as the Blue Martini's server, combines the collection of data on a customer behavior with real-time processing and dynamic tailoring of a feedback page. The new opportunities for direct product marketing and cross selling are arriving. The key problem is what kind of information do we need to achieve these goals, or in other words, how do we model the customer? The paper is devoted to customer modeling and simulation. The focus is on modeling an individual customer. The model is based on the customer's transaction data, click stream data, and demographics. The model includes the hierarchical profile of a customer's preferences to different types of products and brands; consumption models for the different types of products; the current focus, trends, and stochastic models for time intervals between purchases; product affinity models; and some generalized features, such as purchasing power, sensitivity to advertising, price sensitivity, etc. This type of model is used for predicting the date of the next visit, overall spending, and spending for different types of products and brands. For some type of stores (for example, a supermarket) and stable customers, it is possible to forecast the shopping lists rather accurately. The forecasting techniques are discussed. The forecasting results can be used for on- line direct marketing, customer retention, and inventory management. The customer model can also be used as a generative model for simulating the customer's purchasing behavior in different situations and for estimating customer's features.

  7. Modelling and simulation of virtual Mars scene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Si-liang; Chen, Ren; Sun, Li; Yan, Jie

    2011-08-01

    There is a limited cognition on human beings comprehend the universe. Aiming at the impending need of mars exploration in the near future, starting from the mars three-dimensional (3D) model, the mars texture which based on several reality pictures was drew and the Bump mapping technique was managed to enhance the realistic rendering. In order to improve the simulation fidelity, the composing of mars atmospheric was discussed and the reason caused atmospheric scattering was investigated, the scattering algorithm was studied and calculated as well. The reasons why "Red storm" that frequently appeared on mars were particularized, these factors inevitable brought on another celestial body appearance. To conquer this problem, two methods which depended on different position of view point (universe point and terrestrial point) were proposed: in previous way, the 3D model was divided into different meshes to simulate the storm effect and the formula algorithm that mesh could rotate with any axis was educed. From a certain extent the model guaranteed rendering result when looked at the mars (with "Red storm") in universe; in latter way, 3D mars terrain scene was build up according to the mars pictures downloaded on "Google Mars", particle system used to simulated the storm effect, then the Billboard technique was managed to finish the color emendation and rendering compensation. At the end, the star field simulation based on multiple texture blending was given. The result of experiment showed that these methods had not only given a substantial increase in fidelity, but also guaranteed real-time rendering. It can be widely used in simulation of space battlefield and exploration tasks.

  8. Computer Simulation in Chemical Kinetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Jay Martin

    1976-01-01

    Discusses the use of the System Dynamics technique in simulating a chemical reaction for kinetic analysis. Also discusses the use of simulation modelling in biology, ecology, and the social sciences, where experimentation may be impractical or impossible. (MLH)

  9. Simulation model of clastic sedimentary processes

    SciTech Connect

    Tetzlaff, D.M.

    1987-01-01

    This dissertation describes SEDSIM, a computer model that simulates erosion, transport, and deposition of clastic sediments by free-surface flow in natural environments. SEDSIM is deterministic and is applicable to sedimentary processes in rivers, deltas, continental shelves, submarine canyons, and turbidite fans. The model is used to perform experiments in clastic sedimentation. Computer experimentation is limited by computing power available, but is free from scaling problems associated with laboratory experiments. SEDSIM responds to information provided to it at the outset of a simulation experiment, including topography, subsurface configuration, physical parameters of fluid and sediment, and characteristics of sediment sources. Extensive computer graphics are incorporated in SEDSIM. The user can display the three-dimensional geometry of simulated deposits in the form of successions of contour maps, perspective diagrams, vector plots of current velocities, and vertical sections of any azimuth orientation. The sections show both sediment age and composition. SEDSIM works realistically with processes involving channel shifting and topographic changes. Example applications include simulation of an ancient submarine canyon carved into a Cretaceous sequence in the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska, known mainly from seismic sections and a sequence of Tertiary age in the Golden Meadow oil field of Louisiana, known principally from well logs.

  10. Ecological Niche Modeling to Estimate the Distribution of Japanese Encephalitis Virus in Asia

    PubMed Central

    Miller, Robin H.; Masuoka, Penny; Klein, Terry A.; Kim, Heung-Chul; Somer, Todd; Grieco, John

    2012-01-01

    Background Culex tritaeniorhynchus is the primary vector of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV), a leading cause of encephalitis in Asia. JEV is transmitted in an enzootic cycle involving large wading birds as the reservoirs and swine as amplifying hosts. The development of a JEV vaccine reduced the number of JE cases in regions with comprehensive childhood vaccination programs, such as in Japan and the Republic of Korea. However, the lack of vaccine programs or insufficient coverage of populations in other endemic countries leaves many people susceptible to JEV. The aim of this study was to predict the distribution of Culex tritaeniorhynchus using ecological niche modeling. Methods/Principal Findings An ecological niche model was constructed using the Maxent program to map the areas with suitable environmental conditions for the Cx. tritaeniorhynchus vector. Program input consisted of environmental data (temperature, elevation, rainfall) and known locations of vector presence resulting from an extensive literature search and records from MosquitoMap. The statistically significant Maxent model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence showed that the mean temperatures of the wettest quarter had the greatest impact on the model. Further, the majority of human Japanese encephalitis (JE) cases were located in regions with higher estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence. Conclusions/Significance Our ecological niche model of the estimated probability of Cx. tritaeniorhynchus presence provides a framework for better allocation of vector control resources, particularly in locations where JEV vaccinations are unavailable. Furthermore, this model provides estimates of vector probability that could improve vector surveillance programs and JE control efforts. PMID:22724030

  11. Modelling the Ecological Vulnerability to Forest Fires in Mediterranean Ecosystems Using Geographic Information Technologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duguy, Beatriz; Alloza, José Antonio; Baeza, M. Jaime; De la Riva, Juan; Echeverría, Maite; Ibarra, Paloma; Llovet, Juan; Cabello, Fernando Pérez; Rovira, Pere; Vallejo, Ramon V.

    2012-12-01

    Forest fires represent a major driver of change at the ecosystem and landscape levels in the Mediterranean region. Environmental features and vegetation are key factors to estimate the ecological vulnerability to fire; defined as the degree to which an ecosystem is susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse effects of fire (provided a fire occurs). Given the predicted climatic changes for the region, it is urgent to validate spatially explicit tools for assessing this vulnerability in order to support the design of new fire prevention and restoration strategies. This work presents an innovative GIS-based modelling approach to evaluate the ecological vulnerability to fire of an ecosystem, considering its main components (soil and vegetation) and different time scales. The evaluation was structured in three stages: short-term (focussed on soil degradation risk), medium-term (focussed on changes in vegetation), and coupling of the short- and medium-term vulnerabilities. The model was implemented in two regions: Aragón (inland North-eastern Spain) and Valencia (eastern Spain). Maps of the ecological vulnerability to fire were produced at a regional scale. We partially validated the model in a study site combining two complementary approaches that focused on testing the adequacy of model's predictions in three ecosystems, all very common in fire-prone landscapes of eastern Spain: two shrublands and a pine forest. Both approaches were based on the comparison of model's predictions with values of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), which is considered a good proxy for green biomass. Both methods showed that the model's performance is satisfactory when applied to the three selected vegetation types.

  12. Dynamic modeling and simulation of gaseous systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, S. Z.; Wormley, D. N.; Rowell, D.; Paynter, H. M.

    1985-12-01

    A general computer-based mathematical modeling system for analyzing air/gas system dynamics has been developed. A set of generic lumped and distributed elements are interconnected by generalized junction structures to represent system configurations. The dynamic response of pressure, flow, temperature, and heat transfer rate at any point in a system, due to control actions, or fluid, thermal, or mechanical disturbances can be determined. The model has been used to analyze furnace implosion and disturbance propagation problems in fossil fuel power plants. To illustrate the modeling techniques, a model of a coal-fired plant has been constructed and pressue transients computed following a fuel trip. The model simulation predictions of the furnace pressure excursions are in close agreement with the data from field tests.

  13. A comparison of hydrologic models for ecological flows and water availability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Caldwell, Peter V; Kennen, Jonathan G.; Sun, Gee; Kiang, Julie E.; Butcher, John B; Eddy, Michelle C; Hay, Lauren E.; LaFontaine, Jacob H.; Hain, Ernie F.; Nelson, Stacy C; McNulty, Steve G

    2015-01-01

    Robust hydrologic models are needed to help manage water resources for healthy aquatic ecosystems and reliable water supplies for people, but there is a lack of comprehensive model comparison studies that quantify differences in streamflow predictions among model applications developed to answer management questions. We assessed differences in daily streamflow predictions by four fine-scale models and two regional-scale monthly time step models by comparing model fit statistics and bias in ecologically relevant flow statistics (ERFSs) at five sites in the Southeastern USA. Models were calibrated to different extents, including uncalibrated (level A), calibrated to a downstream site (level B), calibrated specifically for the site (level C) and calibrated for the site with adjusted precipitation and temperature inputs (level D). All models generally captured the magnitude and variability of observed streamflows at the five study sites, and increasing level of model calibration generally improved performance. All models had at least 1 of 14 ERFSs falling outside a +/−30% range of hydrologic uncertainty at every site, and ERFSs related to low flows were frequently over-predicted. Our results do not indicate that any specific hydrologic model is superior to the others evaluated at all sites and for all measures of model performance. Instead, we provide evidence that (1) model performance is as likely to be related to calibration strategy as it is to model structure and (2) simple, regional-scale models have comparable performance to the more complex, fine-scale models at a monthly time step.

  14. BAYESIAN SPATIAL-TEMPORAL MODELING OF ECOLOGICAL ZERO-INFLATED COUNT DATA

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xia; Chen, Ming-Hui; Kuo, Rita C.; Dey, Dipak K.

    2015-01-01

    A Bayesian hierarchical model is developed for count data with spatial and temporal correlations as well as excessive zeros, uneven sampling intensities, and inference on missing spots. Our contribution is to develop a model on zero-inflated count data that provides flexibility in modeling spatial patterns in a dynamic manner and also improves the computational efficiency via dimension reduction. The proposed methodology is of particular importance for studying species presence and abundance in the field of ecological sciences. The proposed model is employed in the analysis of the survey data by the Northeast Fisheries Sciences Center (NEFSC) for estimation and prediction of the Atlantic cod in the Gulf of Maine - Georges Bank region. Model comparisons based on the deviance information criterion and the log predictive score show the improvement by the proposed spatial-temporal model.

  15. Advanced Modeling, Simulation and Analysis (AMSA) Capability Roadmap Progress Review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Antonsson, Erik; Gombosi, Tamas

    2005-01-01

    Contents include the following: NASA capability roadmap activity. Advanced modeling, simulation, and analysis overview. Scientific modeling and simulation. Operations modeling. Multi-special sensing (UV-gamma). System integration. M and S Environments and Infrastructure.

  16. Macro Level Simulation Model Of Space Shuttle Processing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    The contents include: 1) Space Shuttle Processing Simulation Model; 2) Knowledge Acquisition; 3) Simulation Input Analysis; 4) Model Applications in Current Shuttle Environment; and 5) Model Applications for Future Reusable Launch Vehicles (RLV's). This paper is presented in viewgraph form.

  17. Aeroacoustics Simulations Using Lattice-Based Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qian, Yuehong; Zhang, Raoyang; Chen, Hudong; Chen, Shiyi

    2000-11-01

    Aeroacoustics is an important problem particularly in morden automotive industry. Successful designes are aimed at significant reduction of aerodynamic noise to the interior cabin at high speed driving. Most traditional Computational Fluid Dyamics solvers use steady incompressible approximations. Therefore, they are not suitable to simulate aeroacoustics. Lattice-based models are intrinsically time-dependent and weakly compressible (Mach numbers are usually smaller than 0.3) in addition to their naturally parallel computing feature. This makes it quite appropriate for acoustics simulations. In this presentation, techniques of how to generate and retain acoustics dynamics in lattice Boltzmann models will be discussed. Results of some simple benchmark cases together with some more complicated cases of external flows around real cars using with Exa Corp's PowerFLOW will be presented.

  18. Spatial modeling of ecological areas by fitting the limiting factors for As in the vicinity of mine, Serbia.

    PubMed

    Cakmak, Dragan; Perovic, Veljko; Saljnikov, Elmira; Jaramaz, Darko; Sikiric, Biljana

    2014-03-01

    Elevated arsenic (As) concentrations in soil are often found in the vicinity of certain mineral deposits that have been, or are currently, under exploitation, regardless of the target resource. Detailed study of such areas for safe agriculture requires considerable financial costs and long periods of time. Application of an appropriate spatial model that describes the behavior of arsenic in soil and plants can significantly ease the whole investigation process. This paper presents a model of ecological security of an area that, in the past, was an antimony mine and has a naturally high content of arsenic. For simulation and modeling the geographic information science (GIS) technology with the inserted predictors influencing the accessibility of As and its content in plants was used. The results obtained were the following: (1) a categorization of contaminated soils according to soil properties was developed; (2) the proposed methodology allows focusing on particular suspect area saving an energy and human resource input; and (3) new safe areas for growing crops in contaminated area were modeled. The application of the proposed model of As solubility to various crops grown around a former antimony mine near the village of Lisa, southwest Serbia showed that significant expansion of the areas suitable for growing potato, raspberry, and pasture was possible. PMID:24281676

  19. Uncovering stability mechanisms in microbial ecosystems - combining microcosm experiments, computational modelling and ecological theory in a multidisciplinary approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Worrich, Anja; König, Sara; Banitz, Thomas; Centler, Florian; Frank, Karin; Kästner, Matthias; Miltner, Anja; Thullner, Martin; Wick, Lukas

    2015-04-01

    Although bacterial degraders in soil are commonly exposed to fluctuating environmental conditions, the functional performance of the biodegradation processes can often be maintained by resistance and resilience mechanisms. However, there is still a gap in the mechanistic understanding of key factors contributing to the stability of such an ecosystem service. Therefore we developed an integrated approach combining microcosm experiments, simulation models and ecological theory to directly make use of the strengths of these disciplines. In a continuous interplay process, data, hypotheses, and central questions are exchanged between disciplines to initiate new experiments and models to ultimately identify buffer mechanisms and factors providing functional stability. We focus on drying and rewetting-cycles in soil ecosystems, which are a major abiotic driver for bacterial activity. Functional recovery of the system was found to depend on different spatial processes in the computational model. In particular, bacterial motility is a prerequisite for biodegradation if either bacteria or substrate are heterogeneously distributed. Hence, laboratory experiments focussing on bacterial dispersal processes were conducted and confirmed this finding also for functional resistance. Obtained results will be incorporated into the model in the next step. Overall, the combination of computational modelling and laboratory experiments identified spatial processes as the main driving force for functional stability in the considered system, and has proved a powerful methodological approach.

  20. Proposal for scalable models in EMC simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leibinger, Á.; Hajdu, Á.

    2011-08-01

    In this paper a method "Component Series Modeling" (CoSeMod) is presented. This allows fast and easy implementation of scalable model generations for passive component series based on measurement data or specification provided by manufacturer. These can be used in circuit models for fast EMC analysis and optimization, especially in frequency ranges where conducted emission and susceptibility dominate. EMC tasks require high precision equivalent circuit models of components. Models generated with CoSeMod provide in many cases as high a quality as original (static) models do. One feature of scalability is that new netlisting is not needed after component changes. The process of model creation is based on similarities of the components of the same model series (packaging, manufacturing process, material etcetera). Required equations of the relationship between nominal and parasitic values are calculated by nonlinear regression. Model generation for unknown components of a known series is possible with interpolation. Implementation is possible with relatively simple actions made in circuit simulator Saber. An EMC application example of the implemented model is also shown in this paper.

  1. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A.; Garrett, Bruce C.; Straatsma, Tp; Jones, Donald R.; Studham, Ronald S.; Harrison, Robert J.; Nichols, Jeffrey A.

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM&S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  2. Theory, Modeling and Simulation Annual Report 2000

    SciTech Connect

    Dixon, David A; Garrett, Bruce C; Straatsma, TP; Jones, Donald R; Studham, Scott; Harrison, Robert J; Nichols, Jeffrey A

    2001-11-01

    This annual report describes the 2000 research accomplishments for the Theory, Modeling, and Simulation (TM and S) directorate, one of the six research organizations in the William R. Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL). EMSL is a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) national scientific user facility and is the centerpiece of the DOE commitment to providing world-class experimental, theoretical, and computational capabilities for solving the nation's environmental problems.

  3. Refined Transistor Model For Simulation Of SEU

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zoutendyk, John A.; Benumof, Reuben

    1988-01-01

    Equivalent base resistance added. Theoretical study develops equations for parameters of Gummel-Poon model of bipolar junction transistor: includes saturation current, amplification factors, charging times, knee currents, capacitances, and resistances. Portion of study concerned with base region goes beyond Gummel-Poon analysis to provide more complete understanding of transistor behavior. Extended theory useful in simulation of single-event upset (SEU) caused in logic circuits by cosmic rays or other ionizing radiation.

  4. . Ecological conceptual models: a framework and case study on ecosystem management for South Florida sustainability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gentile, J.H.; Harwell, M.A.; Cropper, W., Jr.; Harwell, C. C.; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Davis, S.; Ogden, J.C.; Lirman, D.

    2001-01-01

    The Everglades and South Florida ecosystems are the focus of national and international attention because of their current degraded and threatened state. Ecological risk assessment, sustainability and ecosystem and adaptive management principles and processes are being used nationally as a decision and policy framework for a variety of types of ecological assessments. The intent of this study is to demonstrate the application of these paradigms and principles at a regional scale. The effects-directed assessment approach used in this study consists of a retrospective, eco-epidemiological phase to determine the causes for the current conditions and a prospective predictive risk-based assessment using scenario analysis to evaluate future options. Embedded in these assessment phases is a process that begins with the identification of goals and societal preferences which are used to develop an integrated suite of risk-based and policy relevant conceptual models. Conceptual models are used to illustrate the linkages among management (societal) actions, environmental stressors, and societal/ecological effects, and provide the basis for developing and testing causal hypotheses. These models, developed for a variety of landscape units and their drivers, stressors, and endpoints, are used to formulate hypotheses to explain the current conditions. They are also used as the basis for structuring management scenarios and analyses to project the temporal and spatial magnitude of risk reduction and system recovery. Within the context of recovery, the conceptual models are used in the initial development of performance criteria for those stressors that are determined to be most important in shaping the landscape, and to guide the use of numerical models used to develop quantitative performance criteria in the scenario analysis. The results will be discussed within an ecosystem and adaptive management framework that provides the foundation for decision making.

  5. Streptococcus mutans, caries and simulation models.

    PubMed

    Forssten, Sofia D; Björklund, Marika; Ouwehand, Arthur C

    2010-03-01

    Dental caries and dental plaque are among the most common diseases worldwide, and are caused by a mixture of microorganisms and food debris. Specific types of acid-producing bacteria, especially Streptococcus mutans, colonize the dental surface and cause damage to the hard tooth structure in the presence of fermentable carbohydrates e.g., sucrose and fructose. This paper reviews the link between S. mutans and caries, as well as different simulation models that are available for studying caries. These models offer a valuable approach to study cariogenicity of different substrates as well as colonization of S. mutans. PMID:22254021

  6. Computer Models Simulate Fine Particle Dispersion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    Through a NASA Seed Fund partnership with DEM Solutions Inc., of Lebanon, New Hampshire, scientists at Kennedy Space Center refined existing software to study the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces. The software, EDEM, allows users to import particles and obtain accurate representations of their shapes for modeling purposes, such as simulating bulk solids behavior, and was enhanced to be able to more accurately model fine, abrasive, cohesive particles. These new EDEM capabilities can be applied in many industries unrelated to space exploration and have been adopted by several prominent U.S. companies, including John Deere, Pfizer, and Procter & Gamble.

  7. Simulated lights for an airfield model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gdovin, David P. (Inventor); Lusk, Frank J. (Inventor)

    1982-01-01

    A light at an aircraft landing site is simulated on a model board by the protruding output end of a precision cut optical fiber. The fiber is secured within a counterbore of a counterbored hole in the model board. The length of the precision cut fiber and the depth of the counterbore are closely controlled to ensure that the output end of the fiber protrudes a desired distance. The input end of the precision cut fiber is optically coupled to a collimated light source by a second optical fiber extending through the smaller diameter bore of the counterbored hole.

  8. TMS modeling toolbox for realistic simulation.

    PubMed

    Cho, Young Sun; Suh, Hyun Sang; Lee, Won Hee; Kim, Tae-Seong

    2010-01-01

    Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a technique for brain stimulation using rapidly changing magnetic fields generated by coils. It has been established as an effective stimulation technique to treat patients suffering from damaged brain functions. Although TMS is known to be painless and noninvasive, it can also be harmful to the brain by incorrect focusing and excessive stimulation which might result in seizure. Therefore there is ongoing research effort to elucidate and better understand the effect and mechanism of TMS. Lately Boundary element method (BEM) and Finite element method (FEM) have been used to simulate the electromagnetic phenomenon of TMS. However, there is a lack of general tools to generate the models of TMS due to some difficulties in realistic modeling of the human head and TMS coils. In this study, we have developed a toolbox through which one can generate high-resolution FE TMS models. The toolbox allows creating FE models of the head with isotropic and anisotropic electrical conductivities in five different tissues of the head and the coils in 3D. The generated TMS model is importable to FE software packages such as ANSYS for further and efficient electromagnetic analysis. We present a set of demonstrative results of realistic simulation of TMS with our toolbox. PMID:21095745

  9. Mechanistic effect modeling for ecological risk assessment: where to go from here?

    PubMed

    Grimm, Volker; Martin, Benjamin T

    2013-07-01

    Mechanistic effect models (MEMs) consider the mechanisms of how chemicals affect individuals and ecological systems such as populations and communities. There is an increasing awareness that MEMs have high potential to make risk assessment of chemicals more ecologically relevant than current standard practice. Here we discuss what kinds of MEMs are needed to improve scientific and regulatory aspects of risk assessment. To make valid predictions for a wide range of environmental conditions, MEMs need to include a sufficient amount of emergence, for example, population dynamics emerging from what individual organisms do. We present 1 example where the life cycle of individuals is described using Dynamic Energy Budget theory. The resulting individual-based population model is thus parameterized at the individual level but correctly predicts multiple patterns at the population level. This is the case for both control and treated populations. We conclude that the state-of-the-art in mechanistic effect modeling has reached a level where MEMs are robust and predictive enough to be used in regulatory risk assessment. Mechanistic effect models will thus be used to advance the scientific basis of current standard practice and will, if their development follows Good Modeling Practice, be included in a standardized way in future regulatory risk assessments. PMID:23564619

  10. Simulating Electroweak Baryogenesis in the Standard Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaikie, Andrew; Winters, R. Mike; O'Neil, Deva

    2011-03-01

    One explanation for the abundance of matter over anti-matter in the universe is Electroweak Baryogenesis, which proposes that an excess of baryons was created during the electroweak phase transition, when particles first acquired mass. This transition, which occurred about one-tenth of a nanosecond after the Big Bang, proceeded through bubble nucleation, with the walls of the ``bubbles'' expanding until the electroweak symmetry was broken everywhere in space. We modeled this process in Mathematica using the Standard Model. Although current mass limits for the Higgs boson rule out Electroweak Baryogenesis in the Standard Model, our simulation can provide the basis for modeling more sophisticated scenarios. We used the sonification software SuperCollider to create an audio representation of the growth of the bubbles.

  11. Qualitative simulation for process modeling and control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dalle Molle, D. T.; Edgar, T. F.

    1989-01-01

    A qualitative model is developed for a first-order system with a proportional-integral controller without precise knowledge of the process or controller parameters. Simulation of the qualitative model yields all of the solutions to the system equations. In developing the qualitative model, a necessary condition for the occurrence of oscillatory behavior is identified. Initializations that cannot exhibit oscillatory behavior produce a finite set of behaviors. When the phase-space behavior of the oscillatory behavior is properly constrained, these initializations produce an infinite but comprehensible set of asymptotically stable behaviors. While the predictions include all possible behaviors of the real system, a class of spurious behaviors has been identified. When limited numerical information is included in the model, the number of predictions is significantly reduced.

  12. A mean field model for competition: from neutral ecology to the Red Queen.

    PubMed

    O'Dwyer, James P; Chisholm, Ryan

    2014-08-01

    Individual species are distributed inhomogeneously over space and time, yet, within large communities of species, aggregated patterns of biodiversity seem to display nearly universal behaviour. Neutral models assume that an individual's demographic prospects are independent of its species identity. They have successfully predicted certain static, time-independent patterns. But they have generally failed to predict temporal patterns, such as species ages or population dynamics. We construct a new, multispecies framework incorporating competitive differences between species, and assess the impact of this competition on static and dynamic patterns of biodiversity. We solve this model exactly for the special case of a Red Queen hypothesis, where fitter species are continually arising. The model predicts more realistic species ages than neutral models, without greatly changing predictions for static species abundance distributions. Our modelling approach may allow users to incorporate a broad range of ecological mechanisms. PMID:24924150

  13. Integration of modeling components into ecological and human health risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Chernoff, H.; Tomchuk, D.

    1995-12-31

    The Hudson River is an important recreational and ecological resource in New York State. From 1957 to 1975 between 209,000 and 1.3 million pounds of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were discharged into the Hudson River from two electrical capacitor manufacturing facilities. Many PCBs discharged to the river adhered to the sediment in the Upper River. Aquatic organisms have been exposed to PCBs in the sediment through ingestion or direct contact with sediment. PCBs in the sediment can enter the water column via particulate resuspension and dissolved PCB diffusion from sediment pore water to the overlying water column, providing additional exposure pathways. Multiple exposure pathways can increase the body burden of organisms living in contaminated areas. Ecological and human health risk assessments are being performed as part of a reassessment effort to determine the need and extent of remediation, required for contaminated sediments in the Upper River. Hydrodynamic, water quality and food-chain models based upon and calibrated to recent and historical data collection efforts are integrated into the risk assessments to provide estimates of total PCBs, Aroclors and selected congener concentrations at specific locations in the river under current and future scenarios. The results of both the ecological and human health risk assessments will assist in defining PCB concentrations that pose risks to the biological communities of the Hudson River.

  14. Modeling Ecologic and Geomorphic Change in Semi-Arid New Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, D. B.; Bras, R. L.

    2004-12-01

    A record of grazing, fire suppression and drought in the semi-arid American south-west since the 1800s has left a mark on the landscape. In the Pajarito Plateau, New Mexico, pinyon-juniper woodlands have expanded at the expense of ponderosa pine forest, giving rise to increased erosion rates - a concern to the sustainability of the soil resource and of vegetation. Soil loss also risks human exposure to contaminants from Los Alamos National Laboratory. The dynamics of this water-controlled environment arise from the complex interplay of climate, hydrology, ecology and geomorphology, an understanding of which is fundamental to solution of the environmental challenges. In an effort to predict the course of ecological and geomorphic change in the region, and to provide a tool for land-use planners in averting possible human health and environmental hazards, a numerical landscape evolution model is developed. It assimilates research encompassing plant physiology, ecology, hydrology, and geomorphology, highlights weaknesses in process understanding, and provides a prediction of the future environmental state on the time-scale of 100s of years.

  15. Development of a conceptual model for ecological risk assessment in the Clinch River, VA

    SciTech Connect

    Diamond, J.; Miller, J.

    1995-12-31

    The Clinch River watershed is one of five selected by the USEPA to: (1) evaluate the methodology given in the USEPA Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment, and (2) provide a case study with which to develop an ecological risk problem formulation framework given a complex watershed with multiple stressors. The Clinch water is perhaps most notable for its high diversity of endemic mussel and fish species, most of which are threatened and endangered. Discussions among most of the resource managers in the watershed revealed four assessment endpoints for this risk assessment, all of which have ecological and societal value, and which are susceptible to a number of stressors common in the recruitment and reproduction; threatened and endangered mussel species recruitment and reproduction; threatened and endangered fish species recruitment and reproduction; aquatic cave fauna abundance and diversity; and riparian corridor extent, connectivity, and species composition. Together, these endpoints address the goals established by the workgroup: self-sustaining populations of native macroinvertebrates and fish; improving surface and subsurface water quality; and establishing and maintaining functional riparian corridors of native vegetation. The heart of the problem formulation was defining the conceptual model for this system. Several sources were addressed including various anthropogenic land-use activities, introduced species, and acid rain.

  16. Atomistic modeling and simulation of nanopolycrystalline solids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Zidong

    In the past decades, nanostructured materials have opened new and fascinating avenues for research. Nanopolycrystalline solids, which consist of nano-sized crystalline grains and significant volume fractions of amorphous grain boundaries, are believed to have substantially different response to the thermal-mechanical-electric-magnetic loads, as compared to the response of single-crystalline materials. Nanopolycrystalline materials are expected to play a key role in the next generation of smart materials. This research presents a framework (1) to generate full atomistic models, (2) to perform non-equilibrium molecular dynamics simulations, and (3) to study multi-physics phenomena of nanopolycrystalline solids. This work starts the physical model and mathematical representation with the framework of molecular dynamics. In addition to the latest theories and techniques of molecular dynamics simulations, this work implemented principle of objectivity and incorporates multi-physics features. Further, a database of empirical interatomic potentials is established and the combination scheme for potentials is revisited, which enables investigation of a broad spectrum of chemical elements (as in periodic table) and compounds (such as rocksalt, perovskite, wurtzite, diamond, etc.). The configurational model of nanopolycrystalline solids consists of two spatial components: (1) crystalline grains, which can be obtained through crystal structure optimization, and (2) amorphous grain boundaries, which can be obtained through amorphization process. Therefore, multi-grain multi-phase nanopolycrystalline material system can be constructed by partitioning the space for grains, followed by filling the inter-grain space with amorphous grain boundaries. Computational simulations are performed on several representative crystalline materials and their mixture, such as rocksalt, perovskite and diamond. Problems of relaxation, mechanical loading, thermal stability, heat conduction, electrical field response, magnetic field response are studied. The simulation results of the mechanical, thermal, electrical and magnetic properties are expected to facilitate the rational design and application of nanostructured materials.

  17. Integrating Visualizations into Modeling NEST Simulations

    PubMed Central

    Nowke, Christian; Zielasko, Daniel; Weyers, Benjamin; Peyser, Alexander; Hentschel, Bernd; Kuhlen, Torsten W.

    2015-01-01

    Modeling large-scale spiking neural networks showing realistic biological behavior in their dynamics is a complex and tedious task. Since these networks consist of millions of interconnected neurons, their simulation produces an immense amount of data. In recent years it has become possible to simulate even larger networks. However, solutions to assist researchers in understanding the simulation's complex emergent behavior by means of visualization are still lacking. While developing tools to partially fill this gap, we encountered the challenge to integrate these tools easily into the neuroscientists' daily workflow. To understand what makes this so challenging, we looked into the workflows of our collaborators and analyzed how they use the visualizations to solve their daily problems. We identified two major issues: first, the analysis process can rapidly change focus which requires to switch the visualization tool that assists in the current problem domain. Second, because of the heterogeneous data that results from simulations, researchers want to relate data to investigate these effectively. Since a monolithic application model, processing and visualizing all data modalities and reflecting all combinations of possible workflows in a holistic way, is most likely impossible to develop and to maintain, a software architecture that offers specialized visualization tools that run simultaneously and can be linked together to reflect the current workflow, is a more feasible approach. To this end, we have developed a software architecture that allows neuroscientists to integrate visualization tools more closely into the modeling tasks. In addition, it forms the basis for semantic linking of different visualizations to reflect the current workflow. In this paper, we present this architecture and substantiate the usefulness of our approach by common use cases we encountered in our collaborative work. PMID:26733860

  18. Perspectives on why digital ecologies matter: combining population genetics and ecologically informed agent-based models with GIS for managing dipteran livestock pests.

    PubMed

    Peck, Steven L

    2014-10-01

    It is becoming clear that handling the inherent complexity found in ecological systems is an essential task for finding ways to control insect pests of tropical livestock such as tsetse flies, and old and new world screwworms. In particular, challenging multivalent management programs, such as Area Wide Integrated Pest Management (AW-IPM), face daunting problems of complexity at multiple spatial scales, ranging from landscape level processes to those of smaller scales such as the parasite loads of individual animals. Daunting temporal challenges also await resolution, such as matching management time frames to those found on ecological and even evolutionary temporal scales. How does one deal with representing processes with models that involve multiple spatial and temporal scales? Agent-based models (ABM), combined with geographic information systems (GIS), may allow for understanding, predicting and managing pest control efforts in livestock pests. This paper argues that by incorporating digital ecologies in our management efforts clearer and more informed decisions can be made. I also point out the power of these models in making better predictions in order to anticipate the range of outcomes possible or likely. PMID:24680756

  19. Postglacial species displacement in Triturus newts deduced from asymmetrically introgressed mitochondrial DNA and ecological niche models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background If the geographical displacement of one species by another is accompanied by hybridization, mitochondrial DNA can introgress asymmetrically, from the outcompeted species into the invading species, over a large area. We explore this phenomenon using the two parapatric crested newt species, Triturus macedonicus and T. karelinii, distributed on the Balkan Peninsula in south-eastern Europe, as a model. Results We first delimit a ca. 54,000?km2 area in which T. macedonicus contains T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA. This introgression zone bisects the range of T. karelinii, cutting off a T. karelinii enclave. The high similarity of introgressed mitochondrial DNA haplotypes with those found in T. karelinii suggests a recent transfer across the species boundary. We then use ecological niche modeling to explore habitat suitability of the location of the present day introgression zone under current, mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum conditions. This area was inhospitable during the Last Glacial Maximum for both species, but would have been habitable at the mid-Holocene. Since the mid-Holocene, habitat suitability generally increased for T. macedonicus, whereas it decreased for T. karelinii. Conclusion The presence of a T. karelinii enclave suggests that T. karelinii was the first to colonize the area where the present day introgression zone is positioned after the Last Glacial Maximum. Subsequently, we propose T. karelinii was outcompeted by T. macedonicus, which captured T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA via introgressive hybridization in the process. Ecological niche modeling suggests that this replacement was likely facilitated by a shift in climate since the mid-Holocene. We suggest that the northwestern part of the current introgression zone was probably never inhabited by T. karelinii itself, and that T. karelinii mitochondrial DNA spread there through T. macedonicus exclusively. Considering the spatial distribution of the introgressed mitochondrial DNA and the signal derived from ecological niche modeling, we do not favor the hypothesis that foreign mitochondrial DNA was pulled into the T. macedonicus range by natural selection. PMID:22935041

  20. Equation-free modeling unravels the behavior of complex ecological systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    DeAngelis, Donald L.; Yurek, Simeon

    2015-01-01

    Ye et al. (1) address a critical problem confronting the management of natural ecosystems: How can we make forecasts of possible future changes in populations to help guide management actions? This problem is especially acute for marine and anadromous fisheries, where the large interannual fluctuations of populations, arising from complex nonlinear interactions among species and with varying environmental factors, have defied prediction over even short time scales. The empirical dynamic modeling (EDM) described in Ye et al.’s report, the latest in a series of papers by Sugihara and his colleagues, offers a promising quantitative approach to building models using time series to successfully project dynamics into the future. With the term “equation-free” in the article title, Ye et al. (1) are suggesting broader implications of their approach, considering the centrality of equations in modern science. From the 1700s on, nature has been increasingly described by mathematical equations, with differential or difference equations forming the basic framework for describing dynamics. The use of mathematical equations for ecological systems came much later, pioneered by Lotka and Volterra, who showed that population cycles might be described in terms of simple coupled nonlinear differential equations. It took decades for Lotka–Volterra-type models to become established, but the development of appropriate differential equations is now routine in modeling ecological dynamics. There is no question that the injection of mathematical equations, by forcing “clarity and precision into conjecture” (2), has led to increased understanding of population and community dynamics. As in science in general, in ecology equations are a key method of communication and of framing hypotheses. These equations serve as compact representations of an enormous amount of empirical data and can be analyzed by the powerful methods of mathematics.

  1. Tropical Forests, Savannas and Grasslands: Bridging the Knowledge Gap Between Ecology and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baudena, M.; Dekker, S. C.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Cuesta, B.; Higgins, S. I.; Lehsten, V.; Reick, C. H.; Rietkerk, M.; Scheiter, S.; Yin, Z.; Zavala, M. A.; Brovkin, V.

    2014-12-01

    Due to global climate change, tropical forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are largely used to understand vegetation dynamics under present climate, and to predict its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we present the results of a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their different representations of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modelling. We compared model outcomes to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. Through these comparisons, and by drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need an improved representation in the DGVMs. The first mechanism encompasses water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna occurrence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savannas in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant savanna trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant forest trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also and especially under future scenarios.

  2. Forests, savannas and grasslands: bridging the knowledge gap between ecology and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baudena, M.; Dekker, S. C.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Cuesta, B.; Higgins, S. I.; Lehsten, V.; Reick, C. H.; Rietkerk, M.; Scheiter, S.; Yin, Z.; Zavala, M. A.; Brovkin, V.

    2014-06-01

    The forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future, due to global climate change. Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) are very useful to understand vegetation dynamics under present climate, and to predict its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we perform a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their representation of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modelling. Model outcomes, obtained including different mechanisms, are compared to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. Through these comparisons, and by drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need an improved representation in the DGVMs. The first mechanism includes water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna presence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna occurrences in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant savanna trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant forest trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also and especially under future scenarios.

  3. Forests, savannas, and grasslands: bridging the knowledge gap between ecology and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baudena, M.; Dekker, S. C.; van Bodegom, P. M.; Cuesta, B.; Higgins, S. I.; Lehsten, V.; Reick, C. H.; Rietkerk, M.; Scheiter, S.; Yin, Z.; Zavala, M. A.; Brovkin, V.

    2015-03-01

    The forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, and the transitions between them, are expected to undergo major changes in the future due to global climate change. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) are very useful for understanding vegetation dynamics under the present climate, and for predicting its changes under future conditions. However, several DGVMs display high uncertainty in predicting vegetation in tropical areas. Here we perform a comparative analysis of three different DGVMs (JSBACH, LPJ-GUESS-SPITFIRE and aDGVM) with regard to their representation of the ecological mechanisms and feedbacks that determine the forest, savanna, and grassland biomes, in an attempt to bridge the knowledge gap between ecology and global modeling. The outcomes of the models, which include different mechanisms, are compared to observed tree cover along a mean annual precipitation gradient in Africa. By drawing on the large number of recent studies that have delivered new insights into the ecology of tropical ecosystems in general, and of savannas in particular, we identify two main mechanisms that need improved representation in the examined DGVMs. The first mechanism includes water limitation to tree growth, and tree-grass competition for water, which are key factors in determining savanna presence in arid and semi-arid areas. The second is a grass-fire feedback, which maintains both forest and savanna presence in mesic areas. Grasses constitute the majority of the fuel load, and at the same time benefit from the openness of the landscape after fires, since they recover faster than trees. Additionally, these two mechanisms are better represented when the models also include tree life stages (adults and seedlings), and distinguish between fire-prone and shade-tolerant forest trees, and fire-resistant and shade-intolerant savanna trees. Including these basic elements could improve the predictive ability of the DGVMs, not only under current climate conditions but also and especially under future scenarios.

  4. Modeling ecological drivers in marine viral communities using comparative metagenomics and network analyses

    PubMed Central

    Hurwitz, Bonnie L.; Westveld, Anton H.; Brum, Jennifer R.; Sullivan, Matthew B.

    2014-01-01

    Long-standing questions in marine viral ecology are centered on understanding how viral assemblages change along gradients in space and time. However, investigating these fundamental ecological questions has been challenging due to incomplete representation of naturally occurring viral diversity in single gene- or morphology-based studies and an inability to identify up to 90% of reads in viral metagenomes (viromes). Although protein clustering techniques provide a significant advance by helping organize this unknown metagenomic sequence space, they typically use only ?75% of the data and rely on assembly methods not yet tuned for naturally occurring sequence variation. Here, we introduce an annotation- and assembly-free strategy for comparative metagenomics that combines shared k-mer and social network analyses (regression modeling). This robust statistical framework enables visualization of complex sample networks and determination of ecological factors driving community structure. Application to 32 viromes from the Pacific Ocean Virome dataset identified clusters of samples broadly delineated by photic zone and revealed that geographic region, depth, and proximity to shore were significant predictors of community structure. Within subsets of this dataset, depth, season, and oxygen concentration were significant drivers of viral community structure at a single open ocean station, whereas variability along onshore–offshore transects was driven by oxygen concentration in an area with an oxygen minimum zone and not depth or proximity to shore, as might be expected. Together these results demonstrate that this highly scalable approach using complete metagenomic network-based comparisons can both test and generate hypotheses for ecological investigation of viral and microbial communities in nature. PMID:25002514

  5. LISP based simulation generators for modeling complex space processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tseng, Fan T.; Schroer, Bernard J.; Dwan, Wen-Shing

    1987-01-01

    The development of a simulation assistant for modeling discrete event processes is presented. Included are an overview of the system, a description of the simulation generators, and a sample process generated using the simulation assistant.

  6. A Social Ecological Model of Syndemic Risk affecting Women with and At-Risk for HIV in Impoverished Urban Communities.

    PubMed

    Batchelder, A W; Gonzalez, J S; Palma, A; Schoenbaum, E; Lounsbury, D W

    2015-12-01

    Syndemic risk is an ecological construct, defined by co-occurring interdependent socio-environmental, interpersonal and intrapersonal determinants. We posited syndemic risk to be a function of violence, substance use, perceived financial hardship, emotional distress and self-worth among women with and at-risk for HIV in an impoverished urban community. In order to better understand these interrelationships, we developed and validated a system dynamics (SD) model based upon peer-reviewed literature; secondary data analyses of a cohort dataset including women living with and at-risk of HIV in Bronx, NY (N = 620); and input from a Bronx-based community advisory board. Simulated model output revealed divergent levels and patterns of syndemic risk over time across different sample profiles. Outputs generated new insights about how to effectively explore multicomponent multi-level programs in order to strategically develop more effective services for this population. Specifically, the model indicated that effective multi-level interventions might bolster women's resilience by increasing self-worth, which may result in decreased perceived financial hardship and risk of violence. Overall, our stakeholder-informed model depicts how self-worth may be a major driver of vulnerability and a meaningful addition to syndemic theory affecting this population. PMID:26370203

  7. Model Validation of Power System Components Using Hybrid Dynamic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Nguyen, Tony B.; Kosterev, Dmitry; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2008-05-31

    Hybrid dynamic simulation, with its capability of injecting external signals into dynamic simulation, opens the traditional dynamic simulation loop for interaction with actual field measurements. This simulation technique enables rigorous comparison between simulation results and actual measurements and model validation of individual power system components within a small subsystem. This paper uses a real example of generator model validation to illustrate the procedure and validity of the component model validation methodology using hybrid dynamic simulation. Initial model calibration has also been carried out to show how model validation results would be used to improve component models

  8. Model Validation of Power System Components Using Hybrid Dynamic Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Zhenyu; Nguyen, Tony B.; Kosterev, Dmitry; Guttromson, Ross T.

    2006-05-21

    Abstract—Hybrid dynamic simulation, with its capability of injecting external signals into dynamic simulation, opens the traditional dynamic simulation loop for interaction with actual field measurements. This simulation technique enables rigorous comparison between simulation results and actual measurements and model validation of individual power system components within a small subsystem. This paper uses a real example of generator model validation to illustrate the procedure and validity of the component model validation methodology using hybrid dynamic simulation. Initial model calibration has also been carried out to show how model validation results would be used to improve component models.

  9. Ecological modelling and toxicity data coupled to assess population recovery of marine amphipod Gammarus locusta: Application to disturbance by chronic exposure to aniline.

    PubMed

    de los Santos, Carmen B; Neuparth, Teresa; Torres, Tiago; Martins, Irene; Cunha, Isabel; Sheahan, Dave; McGowan, Tom; Santos, Miguel M

    2015-06-01

    A population agent-based model of marine amphipod Gammarus locusta was designed and implemented as a basis for ecological risk assessment of chemical pollutants impairing life-history traits at the individual level. We further used the model to assess the toxic effects of aniline (a priority hazardous and noxious substance, HNS) on amphipod populations using empirically-built dose-response functions derived from a chronic bioassay that we previously performed with this species. We observed a significant toxicant-induced mortality and adverse effects in reproductive performance (reduction of newborn production) in G. locusta at the individual level. Coupling the population model with the toxicological data from the chronic bioassay allowed the projection of the ecological costs associated with exposure to aniline that might occur in wild populations. Model simulations with different scenarios indicated that even low level prolonged exposure to the HNS aniline can have significant long-term impacts on G. locusta population abundance, until the impacted population returns to undisturbed levels. This approach may be a useful complement in ecotoxicological studies of chemical pollution to transfer individual-collected data to ecological-relevant levels. PMID:25854699

  10. Best Practices for Crash Modeling and Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fasanella, Edwin L.; Jackson, Karen E.

    2002-01-01

    Aviation safety can be greatly enhanced by the expeditious use of computer simulations of crash impact. Unlike automotive impact testing, which is now routine, experimental crash tests of even small aircraft are expensive and complex due to the high cost of the aircraft and the myriad of crash impact conditions that must be considered. Ultimately, the goal is to utilize full-scale crash simulations of aircraft for design evaluation and certification. The objective of this publication is to describe "best practices" for modeling aircraft impact using explicit nonlinear dynamic finite element codes such as LS-DYNA, DYNA3D, and MSC.Dytran. Although "best practices" is somewhat relative, it is hoped that the authors' experience will help others to avoid some of the common pitfalls in modeling that are not documented in one single publication. In addition, a discussion of experimental data analysis, digital filtering, and test-analysis correlation is provided. Finally, some examples of aircraft crash simulations are described in several appendices following the main report.

  11. Systematic simulations of modified gravity: chameleon models

    SciTech Connect

    Brax, Philippe; Li, Baojiu; Winther, Hans A.; Zhao, Gong-Bo E-mail: a.c.davis@damtp.cam.ac.uk E-mail: h.a.winther@astro.uio.no

    2013-04-01

    In this work we systematically study the linear and nonlinear structure formation in chameleon theories of modified gravity, using a generic parameterisation which describes a large class of models using only 4 parameters. For this we have modified the N-body simulation code ecosmog to perform a total of 65 simulations for different models and parameter values, including the default ?CDM. These simulations enable us to explore a significant portion of the parameter space. We have studied the effects of modified gravity on the matter power spectrum and mass function, and found a rich and interesting phenomenology where the difference with the ?CDM paradigm cannot be reproduced by a linear analysis even on scales as large as k ? 0.05 hMpc{sup ?1}, since the latter incorrectly assumes that the modification of gravity depends only on the background matter density. Our results show that the chameleon screening mechanism is significantly more efficient than other mechanisms such as the dilaton and symmetron, especially in high-density regions and at early times, and can serve as a guidance to determine the parts of the chameleon parameter space which are cosmologically interesting and thus merit further studies in the future.

  12. Simulation Assisted Risk Assessment: Blast Overpressure Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawrence, Scott L.; Gee, Ken; Mathias, Donovan; Olsen, Michael

    2006-01-01

    A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach has been developed and applied to the risk analysis of capsule abort during ascent. The PRA is used to assist in the identification of modeling and simulation applications that can significantly impact the understanding of crew risk during this potentially dangerous maneuver. The PRA approach is also being used to identify the appropriate level of fidelity for the modeling of those critical failure modes. The Apollo launch escape system (LES) was chosen as a test problem for application of this approach. Failure modes that have been modeled and/or simulated to date include explosive overpressure-based failure, explosive fragment-based failure, land landing failures (range limits exceeded either near launch or Mode III trajectories ending on the African continent), capsule-booster re-contact during separation, and failure due to plume-induced instability. These failure modes have been investigated using analysis tools in a variety of technical disciplines at various levels of fidelity. The current paper focuses on the development and application of a blast overpressure model for the prediction of structural failure due to overpressure, including the application of high-fidelity analysis to predict near-field and headwinds effects.

  13. Resolving within- and between-population variation in feeding ecology with a biomechanical model.

    PubMed

    Osenberg, Craig W; Huckins, Casey J F; Kaltenberg, Anthony; Martinez, Ari

    2004-09-01

    Studies of phenotypic plasticity have emphasized the effect of the environment on the phenotype, but plasticity can also be used as a tool to study the functional significance of key traits. By inducing variation in phenotypes and testing quantitative models that predict performance based on biological mechanisms, we can develop functionally general models of performance. Pumpkinseed sunfish from lakes with high snail availability have large levator posterior muscles (which are used to crush snail shells), whereas fish from lakes with few snails have relatively small muscles. Here we: (1) quantify differences in the feeding ability of an ontogenetic series of pumpkinseed from two populations; and (2) evaluate whether a biomechanical model can resolve the observed ontogenetic and between-population variation in feeding ecology. Mass, but not length, of the levator posterior muscle in fish from Three Lakes (a lake rich in snails) was greater than for comparably sized fish from Wintergreen Lake (a lake with few snails). Handling times were shorter, crushing strengths were 71% greater, and foraging rate (snail tissue mass consumed per time) and the fraction of thick-shelled snails in the diet were approximately 100% greater for fish from Three Lakes compared to comparably sized fish from Wintergreen. These between-lake differences were not significant after adjusting for variation in pharyngeal morphology, suggesting that the biomechanical model of snail crushing resolved observed ontogenetic and population-level variation in the feeding ecology of pumpkinseed. PMID:15338265

  14. Ecological Forecasting in Chesapeake Bay: Using a Mechanistic-Empirical Modelling Approach

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, C. W.; Hood, Raleigh R.; Long, Wen; Jacobs, John M.; Ramers, D. L.; Wazniak, C.; Wiggert, J. D.; Wood, R.; Xu, J.

    2013-09-01

    The Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System (CBEPS) automatically generates daily nowcasts and three-day forecasts of several environmental variables, such as sea-surface temperature and salinity, the concentrations of chlorophyll, nitrate, and dissolved oxygen, and the likelihood of encountering several noxious species, including harmful algal blooms and water-borne pathogens, for the purpose of monitoring the Bay's ecosystem. While the physical and biogeochemical variables are forecast mechanistically using the Regional Ocean Modeling System configured for the Chesapeake Bay, the species predictions are generated using a novel mechanistic empirical approach, whereby real-time output from the coupled physical biogeochemical model drives multivariate empirical habitat models of the target species. The predictions, in the form of digital images, are available via the World Wide Web to interested groups to guide recreational, management, and research activities. Though full validation of the integrated forecasts for all species is still a work in progress, we argue that the mechanistic–empirical approach can be used to generate a wide variety of short-term ecological forecasts, and that it can be applied in any marine system where sufficient data exist to develop empirical habitat models. This paper provides an overview of this system, its predictions, and the approach taken.

  15. Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Emlen, J.M.

    1989-01-01

    Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

  16. Use of an ecologically relevant modelling approach to improve remote sensing-based schistosomiasis risk profiling.

    PubMed

    Walz, Yvonne; Wegmann, Martin; Leutner, Benjamin; Dech, Stefan; Vounatsou, Penelope; N'Goran, Eliézer K; Raso, Giovanna; Utzinger, Jürg

    2015-01-01

    Schistosomiasis is a widespread water-based disease that puts close to 800 million people at risk of infection with more than 250 million infected, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Transmission is governed by the spatial distribution of specific freshwater snails that act as intermediate hosts and the frequency, duration and extent of human bodies exposed to infested water sources during human water contact. Remote sensing data have been utilized for spatially explicit risk profiling of schistosomiasis. Since schistosomiasis risk profiling based on remote sensing data inherits a conceptual drawback if school-based disease prevalence data are directly related to the remote sensing measurements extracted at the location of the school, because the disease transmission usually does not exactly occur at the school, we took the local environment around the schools into account by explicitly linking ecologically relevant environmental information of potential disease transmission sites to survey measurements of disease prevalence. Our models were validated at two sites with different landscapes in Côte d'Ivoire using high- and moderateresolution remote sensing data based on random forest and partial least squares regression. We found that the ecologically relevant modelling approach explained up to 70% of the variation in Schistosoma infection prevalence and performed better compared to a purely pixelbased modelling approach. Furthermore, our study showed that model performance increased as a function of enlarging the school catchment area, confirming the hypothesis that suitable environments for schistosomiasis transmission rarely occur at the location of survey measurements. PMID:26618326

  17. Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics.

    PubMed

    Restif, Olivier; Hayman, David T S; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Plowright, Raina K; George, Dylan B; Luis, Angela D; Cunningham, Andrew A; Bowen, Richard A; Fooks, Anthony R; O'Shea, Thomas J; Wood, James L N; Webb, Colleen T

    2012-10-01

    Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems. PMID:22809422

  18. Model-guided fieldwork: practical guidelines for multidisciplinary research on wildlife ecological and epidemiological dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Restif, Olivier; Hayman, David T S; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Plowright, Raina K; George, Dylan B; Luis, Angela D; Cunningham, Andrew A; Bowen, Richard A; Fooks, Anthony R; O'Shea, Thomas J; Wood, James L N; Webb, Colleen T

    2012-01-01

    Infectious disease ecology has recently raised its public profile beyond the scientific community due to the major threats that wildlife infections pose to biological conservation, animal welfare, human health and food security. As we start unravelling the full extent of emerging infectious diseases, there is an urgent need to facilitate multidisciplinary research in this area. Even though research in ecology has always had a strong theoretical component, cultural and technical hurdles often hamper direct collaboration between theoreticians and empiricists. Building upon our collective experience of multidisciplinary research and teaching in this area, we propose practical guidelines to help with effective integration among mathematical modelling, fieldwork and laboratory work. Modelling tools can be used at all steps of a field-based research programme, from the formulation of working hypotheses to field study design and data analysis. We illustrate our model-guided fieldwork framework with two case studies we have been conducting on wildlife infectious diseases: plague transmission in prairie dogs and lyssavirus dynamics in American and African bats. These demonstrate that mechanistic models, if properly integrated in research programmes, can provide a framework for holistic approaches to complex biological systems. PMID:22809422

  19. Closed loop models for analyzing engineering requirements for simulators

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baron, S.; Muralidharan, R.; Kleinman, D.

    1980-01-01

    A closed loop analytic model, incorporating a model for the human pilot, (namely, the optimal control model) that would allow certain simulation design tradeoffs to be evaluated quantitatively was developed. This model was applied to a realistic flight control problem. The resulting model is used to analyze both overall simulation effects and the effects of individual elements. The results show that, as compared to an ideal continuous simulation, the discrete simulation can result in significant performance and/or workload penalties.

  20. Geometric Modeling, Radiation Simulation, Rendering, Analysis Package

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1995-01-17

    RADIANCE is intended to aid lighting designers and architects by predicting the light levels and appearance of a space prior to construction. The package includes programs for modeling and translating scene geometry, luminaire data and material properties, all of which are needed as input to the simulation. The lighting simulation itself uses ray tracing techniques to compute radiance values (ie. the quantity of light passing through a specific point in a specific direction), which aremore » typically arranged to form a photographic quality image. The resulting image may be analyzed, displayed and manipulated within the package, and converted to other popular image file formats for export to other packages, facilitating the production of hard copy output.« less