Science.gov

Sample records for econometrics

  1. An Econometrics Laboratory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McNown, Robert F.; Hunt, Gary L.

    1984-01-01

    Describes nine experiments designed to illustrate different applied statistical problems or econometric techniques suitable for the first course in econometrics. Additional information and computer programs are available from the authors. (Author/RM)

  2. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  3. Crystal study and econometric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  4. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

  5. On aggregation in spatial econometric modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paelinck, Jean H. P.

    The spatial aggregation problem - also termed the modifiable areal unit problem - has attracted regular attention in spatial statistics and econometrics. In this study econometric aggregation analysis is used to investigate the formal composition of meso-areal parameters given micro-areal underlying relations with spatial dependence. Impact on stochastic terms (possible meso-areal spatial autocorrelation) is also studied. Finally consequences for meso-areal estimation are derived, the general finding having been that spatial aggregation leads to meso-region specific parameter values, with the estimation problems this implies.

  6. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  7. Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2001-01-01

    Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

  8. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  9. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    PubMed

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research. PMID:25989555

  10. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  11. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  12. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  13. An Econometric Model of the Performing Arts. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwarz, Samuel; Greenfield, Harry I.

    An effort was made to construct and apply an econometric model to explain selected trends and characteristics of symphony orchestras, based on data for the years 1949-75 from 17 major orchestras belonging to the American Symphony Orchestra League. The average length of the playing season increased from about 26 to 49 weeks during the period of the…

  14. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    SciTech Connect

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. ); Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  15. Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bivand, Roger

    Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way.

  16. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  17. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information

    SciTech Connect

    Boyd, G. ); Kokkelenberg, E. State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY Dept. of Economics); Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics)

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig.

  18. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. PMID:25809022

  19. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling. PMID:12804277

  20. Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application

    SciTech Connect

    Epple, D.

    1983-01-01

    This report takes a major step toward developing a fruitful approach to empirical analysis of resource supply. It is the first empirical application of resource theory that has successfully integrated the effects of depletion of nonrenewable resources with the effects of uncertainty about future costs and prices on supply behavior. Thus, the model is a major improvement over traditional engineering-optimization models that assume complete certainty, and over traditional econometrics models that are only implicitly related to the theory of resource supply. The model is used to test hypotheses about interdependence of oil and natural gas discoveries, depletion, ultimate recovery, and the role of price expectations. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using exhaustible resource theory in the development of empirically testable models. 19 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.

  1. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  2. The econometric submodels of the Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM)

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, J.G.; Poyer, D.A.

    1994-04-01

    The Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM) is an econometric simulation model that runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. It can be used to assess the economic impact of energy policies and programs, such as utility rate designs and demand-side management programs, on various population groups, such as minority and low-income households. The econometric submodels that constitute the internal structure of EPSIM are described in detail.

  3. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  4. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  5. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  6. Part 2 The Link between GIS and spatial analysis . GIS, spatial econometrics and social science research

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anselin, Luc

    Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education.

  7. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  8. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  9. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  10. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  11. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  12. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  13. Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function

    SciTech Connect

    Lubowski, Ruben N.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Stavins, Robert N.

    2001-01-01

    Increased attention by policy makers to the threat of global climate change has brought with it considerable interest in the possibility of encouraging the expansion of forest area as a means of sequestering carbon dioxide. The marginal costs of carbon sequestration or, equivalently, the carbon sequestration supply function will determine the ultimate effects and desirability of policies aimed at enhancing carbon uptake. In particular, marginal sequestration costs are the critical statistic for identifying a cost-effective policy mix to mitigate net carbon dioxide emissions. We develop a framework for conducting an econometric analysis of land use for the forty-eight contiguous United States and employing it to estimate the carbon sequestration supply function. By estimating the opportunity costs of land on the basis of econometric evidence of landowners' actual behavior, we aim to circumvent many of the shortcomings of previous sequestration cost assessments. By conducting the first nationwide econometric estimation of sequestration costs, endogenizing prices for land-based commodities, and estimating land-use transition probabilities in a framework that explicitly considers the range of land-use alternatives, we hope to provide better estimates eventually of the true costs of large-scale carbon sequestration efforts. In this way, we seek to add to understanding of the costs and potential of this strategy for addressing the threat of global climate change.

  14. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  15. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.; Jorgenson, D.W.; Stoker, T.M.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements are developed in the report on the model specification).

  16. Gas or electricity, which is cheaper?: An econometric approach with application to Australian expenditure data

    SciTech Connect

    Bartels, R.; Fiebig, D.G.; Plumb, M.H.

    1996-12-31

    This paper introduces a new econometric approach to obtaining comparative estimates of the expenditures made on different end uses by households using either electricity or gas. A large sample of Austrialian households was used to derive precise estimates for space heating, water heating and cooking. Households using electricity for electricity for main heating spend less than similiar households using gas; for cooking, households using gas spend less than those using electricity in most regions; for water heating the results are mixed. The authors describe the methodology used to equate households and energy costs for the comparative analysis. 25 refs., 8 tabs.

  17. A multi-equation spatial econometric model, with application to EU manufacturing productivity growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fingleton, Bernard

    2007-06-01

    A multi-equation spatial econometric model is used to explain variations across EU regions in manufacturing productivity growth based on recent theoretical developments in urban economics and economic geography. The paper shows that temporal and spatial parameter homogeneity is an unrealistic assumption, contrary to what is typically assumed in the literature. Constraints are imposed on parameters across time periods and between core and peripheral regions of the EU, with the significant loss of fit providing overwhelming evidence of parameter heterogeneity, although the final model does highlight increasing returns to scale, which is a central feature of contemporary theory.

  18. A comparative analysis of errors in long-term econometric forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Tepel, R.

    1986-04-01

    The growing body of literature that documents forecast accuracy falls generally into two parts. The first is prescriptive and is carried out by modelers who use simulation analysis as a tool for model improvement. These studies are ex post, that is, they make use of known values for exogenous variables and generate an error measure wholly attributable to the model. The second type of analysis is descriptive and seeks to measure errors, identify patterns among errors and variables and compare forecasts from different sources. Most descriptive studies use an ex ante approach, that is, they evaluate model outputs based on estimated (or forecasted) exogenous variables. In this case, it is the forecasting process, rather than the model, that is under scrutiny. This paper uses an ex ante approach to measure errors in forecast series prepared by Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (Wharton), and Chase Econometrics (Chase) and to determine if systematic patterns of errors can be discerned between services, types of variables (by degree of aggregation), length of forecast and time at which the forecast is made. Errors are measured as the percent difference between actual and forecasted values for the historical period of 1971 to 1983.

  19. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  20. Econometric Mediation Analyses: Identifying the Sources of Treatment Effects from Experimentally Estimated Production Technologies with Unmeasured and Mismeasured Inputs

    PubMed Central

    Heckman, James; Pinto, Rodrigo

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents an econometric mediation analysis. It considers identification of production functions and the sources of output effects (treatment effects) from experimental interventions when some inputs are mismeasured and others are entirely omitted. JEL Code: D24, C21, C43, C38 PMID:25400327

  1. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T; Lantz, Margaret W; Hauser, Katie R

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  2. Price and income elasticities of energy demand: Some estimates for Kuwait using two econometric models

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Mutairi, N.H.; Eltony, M.N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper estimates the demand for energy in Kuwait for the period 1965-1989 using two econometric models: a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) and a simultaneous-equation model (SEM). The results obtained from both models are similar. It is found that the energy demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run, and while it is elastic in the long run, the energy demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run. Both models` validation shows that the ECM performed better in replicating the past than the simultaneous model, suggesting the need to use the ECM to identify future prospects for energy demand in Kuwait.

  3. Retail gas prices and its effect on actual automobile purchases: An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Brian F., Sr.

    Weekly aggregate vehicle purchase and retail gasoline price data, over the time span of 2001.01 to 2005.52, were used to determine in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area if the price of gasoline helped to predict vehicle purchases. This time period and data set included the effects of rapidly changing technology and rapidly increasing retail gasoline prices. This time series econometric analysis took advantage of the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey Fuller tests for stationarity, as well as the concept of Granger causality to answer this question. Short-run relationships were present and were not contingent on the gender of the purchaser. The long-run results were affirmative for female purchasers and there was not enough evidence to conclude the same for male purchasers.

  4. An econometric model of the regulated emissions for fuel-efficient new vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Khazzoom, J.D.

    1995-03-01

    Results of recent studies suggested that because of the way the auto emissions are regulated, increasing the fuel economy of new vehicles may lead to a degradation in air quality. These results rest on the hypothesis that increasing the fuel economy of new vehicles leaves the emission rate of the regulated pollutants unchanged. This paper develops an econometric model of the emission rate of new vehicles and uses the model to test the null hypothesis that increased fuel economy leaves the emission rate unchanged. The estimation results do not reject the null. We subject the model to extensive specification tests as well, to be reasonably confident of its adequacy. 32 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.

  5. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    PubMed

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  6. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  7. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  8. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  9. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

    PubMed Central

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

  10. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas. PMID:19207538

  11. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  12. Peer Influences on Drug Self-Administration: An Econometric Analysis in Socially Housed Rats

    PubMed Central

    Peitz, Geoffrey W.; Strickland, Justin C.; Pitts, Elizabeth G.; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, with the caveat that the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e., quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs. PMID:23412112

  13. Peer influences on drug self-administration: an econometric analysis in socially housed rats.

    PubMed

    Peitz, Geoffrey W; Strickland, Justin C; Pitts, Elizabeth G; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A

    2013-04-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine the social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, under conditions where the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e. quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs. PMID:23412112

  14. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents

  15. Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

    SciTech Connect

    Usip, E.E.E.

    1984-01-01

    The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

  16. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  17. Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Aaron Raymond

    This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust

  18. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  19. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  20. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2014-09-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  1. An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.

    1999-03-01

    This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.

  2. Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C.; Cronin, F.J.

    1985-02-01

    Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.

  3. Antiretroviral Treatment Scale-Up and Tuberculosis Mortality in High TB/HIV Burden Countries: An Econometric Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yan, Isabel; Bendavid, Eran; Korenromp, Eline L.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Antiretroviral therapy (ART) reduces mortality in patients with active tuberculosis (TB), but the population-level relationship between ART coverage and TB mortality is untested. We estimated the reduction in population-level TB mortality that can be attributed to increasing ART coverage across 41 high HIV-TB burden countries. Methods We compiled TB mortality trends between 1996 and 2011 from two sources: (1) national program-reported TB death notifications, adjusted for annual TB case detection rates, and (2) WHO TB mortality estimates. National coverage with ART, as proportion of HIV-infected people in need, was obtained from UNAIDS. We applied panel linear regressions controlling for HIV prevalence (5-year lagged), coverage of TB interventions (estimated by WHO and UNAIDS), gross domestic product per capita, health spending from domestic sources, urbanization, and country fixed effects. Results Models suggest that that increasing ART coverage was followed by reduced TB mortality, across multiple specifications. For death notifications at 2 to 5 years following a given ART scale-up, a 1% increase in ART coverage predicted 0.95% faster mortality rate decline (p = 0.002); resulting in 27% fewer TB deaths in 2011 alone than would have occurred without ART. Based on WHO death estimates, a 1% increase in ART predicted a 1.0% reduced TB death rate (p<0.001), and 31% fewer deaths in 2011. TB mortality was higher at higher HIV prevalence (p<0.001), but not related to coverage of isoniazid preventive therapy, cotrimoxazole preventive therapy, or other covariates. Conclusion This econometric analysis supports a substantial impact of ART on population-level TB mortality realized already within the first decade of ART scale-up, that is apparent despite variable-quality mortality data. PMID:27536864

  4. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  5. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree

  6. Applying econometric techniques to hydrological problems in a large basin: Quantifying the rainfall-discharge relationship in the Burdekin, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, Diane; Stoeckl, Natalie; Chaiechi, Taha

    2013-07-01

    This study seeks to explore the relationship between rainfall and river discharge within a large river basin flowing into the waters surrounding the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and to investigate the best method of measuring the relationship. This aim is addressed by focusing on three specific research questions: (A) Has there been any evidence that global climate change has impacted on either rainfall or river discharge resulting in any change to the relationship between these variables over time? (B) What is the best measure of rainfall to be used to quantify the rainfall-discharge relationship, including the optimal number of rain stations to be included in the sample? (C) What is the optimal temporal scale for measuring the relationship (ranging from fine scale monthly data, medium scale quarterly data, and coarse scale annual data)? Modern econometric time series techniques are utilised, and compared with results using an alternate technique developed by researchers from the bio-physical sciences; the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. Firstly, stationarity testing, using econometric unit root tests, did not find evidence to suggest that the data are non-stationary. Evidently, climate change has not had a measurable impact on rainfall or river discharge in the region during the period covered by this study. Secondly, the analysis shows that the when dealing with fairly simple models with a fairly small number of explanatory variables, those which best represent the river-discharge relationship are those using the coarser scales (both geographic and temporal). In other words, stronger and more robust results are derived from models using fewer rain stations, and annual data (rather than quarterly or monthly data). This approach provides a viable alternative that may be very useful in data-poor environments when it is not possible to use other more data-hungry modelling approaches. The econometric models provided a better explanation of the relationship than the

  7. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  8. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province. PMID:25515074

  9. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for themore » criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.« less

  10. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.

  11. Manpower Projections to 1980. Econometric Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubota, Gordon H.; Tsukahara, Theodore, Jr.

    The objective of this study was to develop an economic approach to the forecasting of allied health manpower in markets in the State of California. The health manpower categories considered included: (1) Medical technology, (2) occupational therapy, (3) dietetic and nutritional services, (4) physical therapy, (5) health administration, (6)…

  12. R&D and Productivity: Measurement Issues and Econometric Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griliches, Zvi

    1987-01-01

    Discusses the relationship and contributions of research and development (R&D) to productivity growth in the United States. Focuses on the impacts of industrial R&D and presents study results on trends in productivity. (ML)

  13. Cost savings from nuclear regulatory reform: An econometric model

    SciTech Connect

    Canterbery, E.R. |; Johnson, B.; Reading, D.

    1996-01-01

    The nuclear-generated power touted in the 1950s as someday being {open_quotes}too cheap to meter{close_quotes} got dismissed in the 1980s as incapable of being both safe and cost effective. Today, less than 20 percent of American`s electricity is nuclear-generated, no new plants are planned or on order, and some of the earliest units are scheduled for decommissioning within the next decade. Even so, interest in nuclear power has been revived by increasing energy demands, concerns about global warming, and the uncertainty surrounding oil resources in the Persian Gulf. As a long-term alternative to fossil fuels, atomic energy offers the important advantages of clean air and domestic availability of fuel. But these advantages will count for little unless and until the costs of nuclear power can be seen as reasonable. The authors premise is that the relevant costs are those of providing safe and environmentally clean electric energy. To the extent that increased costs have resulted from increasingly stringent regulations, they reflect the internalization of external costs. Indeed, the external costs of nuclear power (particularly safety and environmental protection) have been internalized to a greater degree than with most alternative fuel sources used by electric utilities. Nuclear construction costs are properly compared with those of alternative sources only after the latter are adjusted for environmental damage and endangerment, including, as examples, the costs of oil spills, of building double-hulled tankers, and of building off-shore offloading facilities. A shift to nuclear sources could reduce these costs whereas it would increase disposal costs for radioactive materials. The authors contend that a better understanding of nuclear plant construction costs is pivotal to a balanced evaluation of the merits of uranium relative to other fuel choices. 12 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.

  14. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    PubMed Central

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-01-01

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading. PMID:12773218

  15. Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control Knob”

    PubMed Central

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a “feedback” from rising temperatures initially resulting only from “non-condensing” GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H2O]). However, this paper shows that “initial radiative forcing” is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H2O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective “control knob” as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010). PMID:22629196

  16. An econometric analysis of the market for natural gas futures

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, W.D.

    1995-12-31

    This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of future markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets. 29 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  17. The Econometric Analysis of Tomato Production with contracting in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunes, Erdogan

    Turkey is the largest grower of processing tomatoes in the world after the US, Italy, China and Spain. Growing tomatoes for sauce is one of the two major uses of contract farming in Turkey and this activity involves arrangements between private sauce companies and farms. This practice is now wide spread since the 1970s, especially in the Marmara Region. Before the production season begins, sauce industry firms sign contracts with farms that guarantee the quality and quantity of their raw material and guarantee the growers sales at predetermined prices. In addition, plants served to farmers for more productivity by techniques such as drop irrigation and also their extension services and field demonstrations at this region. This research is based on interviews with 100 farms that growing tomatoes for sauce factories in Bursa province to determine relationships between plants and farms and factors affecting tomato cultivation land. At this research, farms were divided to two groups based on tomatoes cultivation land. It was found that plants had highly effective on tomatoes land by means of input and supports on finance to the farms with logarithmic models.

  18. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  19. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It combines the methodological approaches of the literature on program evaluation, data combination and forecasting to develop estimators of the average treatment effects. This exercise allows a more complete cost-benefit evaluation of social programs accounting for benefits over the whole life cycle.

  20. The effect of neighbourhood mortality shocks on fertility preferences: a spatial econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Owoo, Nkechi S; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Onuoha, Emily

    2015-07-01

    According to the demographic transition theory, fertility rates fall in response to declines in child mortality rates. Although national statistics indicate that child mortality rates have been declining over time, Ghana's fertility rates appear to have stalled. This paper hypothesises that women's fertility behaviours may be more responsive to child mortality experiences at more localised levels. Using all rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (1988-2008) and employing a variety of spatial and empirical estimation techniques, results indicate that in addition to own-child mortality, neighbourhood child mortality shocks are also a determinant of women's fertility in Ghana. Women in neighbourhoods with large child mortality shocks may desire more children as an "insurance" against future losses, as a result of their increased perceptions of own-child mortality risks. PMID:24947402

  1. Solicitation and Donation: An Econometric Evaluation of Alumni Generosity in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfried, Michael A.; Johnson, Erica L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluates the relationship between alumni solicitation and alumni donation within institutions of higher education. The issue of alumni giving is important for universities because the average cost of university tuition has increased dramatically over the past 20 years at an annual growth rate larger than the United States CPI (Harvard…

  2. Measuring the Efficiency of a Hospital based on the Econometric Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) Method

    PubMed Central

    Rezaei, Satar; Zandian, Hamed; Baniasadi, Akram; Moghadam, Telma Zahirian; Delavari, Somayeh; Delavari, Sajad

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Hospitals are the most expensive health services provider in the world. Therefore, the evaluation of their performance can be used to reduce costs. The aim of this study was to determine the efficiency of the hospitals at the Kurdistan University of Medical Sciences using stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Methods This was a cross-sectional and retrospective study that assessed the performance of Kurdistan teaching hospitals (n = 12) between 2007 and 2013. The Stochastic Frontier Analysis method was used to achieve this aim. The numbers of active beds, nurses, physicians, and other staff members were considered as input variables, while the inpatient admission was considered as the output. The data were analyzed using Frontier 4.1 software. Results The mean technical efficiency of the hospitals we studied was 0.67. The results of the Cobb-Douglas production function showed that the maximum elasticity was related to the active beds and the elasticity of nurses was negative. Also, the return to scale was increasing. Conclusion The results of this study indicated that the performances of the hospitals were not appropriate in terms of technical efficiency. In addition, there was a capacity enhancement of the output of the hospitals, compared with the most efficient hospitals studied, of about33%. It is suggested that the effect of various factors, such as the quality of health care and the patients’ satisfaction, be considered in the future studies to assess hospitals’ performances. PMID:27054014

  3. The Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of the Top-Ranked Economics Journals: An Econometric Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Asserts that subscription price increases for academic journals have been the area of single greatest concern to librarians during the past decade. Finds that systematic variations in library prices across economics journals offer explainable reasons. (CFR)

  4. Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

    This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

  5. Human resources for health and burden of disease: an econometric approach

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The effect of health workers on health has been proven to be important for various health outcomes (e.g. mortality, coverage of immunisation or skilled birth attendants). The study aim of this paper is to assess the relationship between health workers and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), which represents a much broader concept of health outcome, including not only mortality but also morbidity. Methods Cross-country multiple regression analyses were undertaken, with DALYs and DALYs disaggregated according to the three different groups of diseases as the dependent variable. Aggregate health workers and disaggregate physicians, nurses, and midwives were included as independent variables, as well as a variable accounting for the skill mix of professionals. The analysis also considers controlling for the effects of income, income distribution, percentage of rural population with access to improved water source, and health expenditure. Results This study presents evidence of a statistically negative relationship between the density of health workers (especially physicians) and the DALYs. An increase of one unit in the density of health workers per 1000 will decrease, on average, the total burden of disease between 1% and 3%. However, in line with previous findings in the literature, the density of nurses and midwives could not be said to be statistically associated to DALYs. Conclusions If countries increase their health worker density, they will be able to reduce significantly their burden of disease, especially the burden associated to communicable diseases. This study represents supporting evidence of the importance of health workers for health. PMID:21269453

  6. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

    PubMed Central

    Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

  7. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  8. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models.

    PubMed

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-12-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  9. SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  10. Nutrient-dense food groups have high energy costs: an econometric approach to nutrient profiling.

    PubMed

    Maillot, Matthieu; Darmon, Nicole; Darmon, Michel; Lafay, Lionel; Drewnowski, Adam

    2007-07-01

    Consumers wishing to replace some of the foods in their diets with more nutrient-dense options need to be able to identify such foods on the basis of nutrient profiling. The present study used nutrient profiling to rank 7 major food groups and 25 subgroups in terms of their contribution to dietary energy, diet quality, and diet cost for 1332 adult participants in the French National INCA1 Study. Nutrient profiles were based on the presence of 23 qualifying nutrients, expressed as the percentage of nutrient adequacy per 8 MJ, and 3 negative or disqualifying nutrients, expressed as the percentage of the maximal recommended values for saturated fatty acids, added sugar, and sodium per 1.4 kg. Calculated cost of energy (euro/8 MJ) was based on the mean retail price of 619 foods in the nutrient composition database. The meat and the fruit and vegetables food groups had the highest nutritional quality but were associated with highest energy costs. Sweets and salted snacks had the lowest nutritional quality but were also one of the least expensive sources of dietary energy. Starches and grains were unique because they were low in disqualifying nutrients yet provided low-cost dietary energy. Within each major food group, some subgroups had a higher nutritient-to-price ratio than others. However, the fact that food groups with the more favorable nutrient profiles were also associated with higher energy costs suggests that the present structure of food prices may be a barrier to the adoption of food-based dietary guidelines, at least by low-income households. PMID:17585036

  11. An econometric study of the demand for gasoline in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

    SciTech Connect

    Eltony, M.N.

    1994-12-31

    Reliable and accurate estimation of price and income elasticities of demand for gasoline are important ingredients for long-run energy planning and policy formation. The purpose of this study is to develop and estimate a model for gasoline demand for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Oatar, Saufi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). The model is capable of producing short-run and long-run price and income elasticities. Since the first oil price hike in 1973, a great deal of attention has been directed toward the demand for gasoline, especially in the industrialized countries. Few studies have been directed toward the demand for gasoline in developing countries. In terms of primary energy consumption, the GCC`s energy needs are met by oil, natural gas, and electricity. Without any doubt, oil is the largest energy source consumed and gasoline is the most important oil product. However, very few studies have been directed toward analyzing GCC energy demand, and yet there has been not attempt to model and estimate GCC gasoline demand. This study attempts to address this gap.

  12. Econometrics of inventory holding and shortage costs: the case of refined gasoline

    SciTech Connect

    Krane, S.D.

    1985-01-01

    This thesis estimates a model of a firm's optimal inventory and production behavior in order to investigate the link between the role of inventories in the business cycle and the microeconomic incentives for holding stocks of finished goods. The goal is to estimate a set of structural cost function parameters that can be used to infer the optimal cyclical response of inventories and production to shocks in demand. To avoid problems associated with the use of value based aggregate inventory data, an industry level physical unit data set for refined motor gasoline is examined. The Euler equations for a refiner's multiperiod decision problem are estimated using restrictions imposed by the rational expectations hypothesis. The model also embodies the fact that, in most periods, the level of shortages will be zero, and even when positive, the shortages are not directly observable in the data set. These two concerns lead us to use a generalized method of moments estimation technique on a functional form that resembles the formulation of a Tobit problem. The estimation results are disappointing; the model and data yield coefficient estimates incongruous with the cost function interpretations of the structural parameters. These is only some superficial evidence that production smoothing is significant and that marginal inventory shortage costs increase at a faster rate than do marginal holding costs.

  13. ECONOMIC MODELLING OF WATER SUPPLY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPRODUCT FIRM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research was conducted to develop a comprehensive economic model that could use the neoclassical theory of the multiproduct firm to analyze the production structure of water supply. The project attempts to meet the need for in-depth analysis of the cost and economic structure of ...

  14. An Econometric Model of External Labor Supply to the Establishment Within a Confined Geographic Market.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hines, Robert James

    The study conducted in the Buffalo, New York standard metropolitan statistical area, was undertaken to formulate and test a simple model of labor supply for a local labor market. The principal variables to be examined to determine the external supply function of labor to the establishment are variants of the rate of change of the entry wage and…

  15. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation.

    PubMed

    Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S

    2009-09-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

  16. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  17. Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

    2013-04-01

    Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

  18. A micro-econometric analysis of the industrial demand for energy in NSW

    SciTech Connect

    Woodland, A.D. )

    1993-01-01

    This paper analyzes an extensive data set consisting of observations on all manufacturing establishments in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period. The focus is on the determinants of the demands by manufacturing establishments for different fuels (namely coal, oil, gas and electricity) and, in particular, upon the responsiveness of the demands to changes in the prices of the various fuels, the wage rate, and the rental rate on capital. Particular attention is paid to the facts that (a) establishments have different patterns of fuel consumption and (b) gas and electricity have block-pricing structures. Estimates of own-price elasticities of demand for electricity, gas and oil are higher than appear in the literature. 28 refs., 3 figs., 7 tabs.

  19. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  20. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  1. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  2. The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mushrush, Christopher E.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

  3. Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

  4. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    PubMed Central

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  5. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: The case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Hage, Olle Soederholm, Patrik

    2008-07-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used.

  6. New econometric approach to modelling peak load pricing policies: the case of electricity demand by large industrial customers

    SciTech Connect

    Jazayeri, A.A.

    1984-01-01

    This study relates the kWh consumption and the maximum instantaneous demand through a reasonable and simple inequity based on the property of the load curve. The model of analysis includes this inequality and two equations relating the kWh consumption and kW demand to their respective prices. The error term in the first equation is assumed to be normally distributed, and the error term in the second equation is assumed to have an asymptotic distribution similar to that of the largest extremes. Relating the two equations through the inequality necessitates the formation of the convolution of the normal and the extreme value distributions. Such a distribution is formed and the maximum-likelihood estimation technique along with methods of numerical analysis are utilized to estimate the parameters of this system of equations. In addition, the method of estimation is applied to time-of-use electricity pricing which preserve the basic structure of Hopkinson rate, introduction of demand and energy charges, and allows application of distinct demand and energy charges to different periods of the day or season.

  7. Assessing the Use of Econometric Analysis in Estimating the Costs of Meeting State Education Accountability Standards: Lessons from Texas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imazeki, Jennifer; Reschovsky, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    In 2004, over 300 school districts in Texas challenged the constitutionality of the Texas system of school finance. In West Orange-Cove et al. v. Neeley et al., the plaintiffs argued that because most school districts were at or near a state-imposed property tax rate ceiling and because the share of state education funding was declining, most…

  8. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

  9. Alternative approaches for econometric analysis of panel count data using dynamic latent class models (with application to doctor visits data).

    PubMed

    Hyppolite, Judex; Trivedi, Pravin

    2012-06-01

    Cross-sectional latent class regression models, also known as switching regressions or hidden Markov models, cannot identify transitions between classes that may occur over time. This limitation can potentially be overcome when panel data are available. For such data, we develop a sequence of models that combine features of the static cross-sectional latent class (finite mixture) models with those of hidden Markov models. We model the probability of movement between categories in terms of a Markovian structure, which links the current state with a previous state, where state may refer to the category of an individual. This article presents a suite of mixture models of varying degree of complexity and flexibility for use in a panel count data setting, beginning with a baseline model which is a two-component mixture of Poisson distribution in which latent classes are fixed and permanent. Sequentially, we extend this framework (i) to allow the mixing proportions to be smoothly varying continuous functions of time-varying covariates, (ii) to add time dependence to the benchmark model by modeling the class-indicator variable as a first-order Markov chain and (iii) to extend item (i) by making it dynamic and introducing covariate dependence in the transition probabilities. We develop and implement estimation algorithms for these models and provide an empirical illustration using 1995-1999 panel data on the number of doctor visits derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel. PMID:22556003

  10. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    PubMed

    Arima, E Y

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  11. An Econometric Model for Estimating IQ Scores and Environmental Influences on the Pattern of IQ Scores Over Time.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kadane, Joseph B.; And Others

    This paper offers a preliminary analysis of the effects of a semi-segregated school system on the IQ's of its students. The basic data consist of IQ scores for fourth, sixth, and eighth grades and associated environmental data obtained from their school records. A statistical model is developed to analyze longitudinal data when both process error…

  12. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  13. An econometric model of an episode of mental health care for patients with mild conditions: implications for caregiver substitution.

    PubMed

    Cross, J G; Knesper, D J; De Rooij, J P

    1990-01-01

    This article presents a model of the number of hours of mental health care, the concurrent improvement in the patient's condition, the probability the patient will receive medications, and the reasons for treatment termination. The variables related to these aspects of mental health care are analyzed separately for patients of psychiatrists, psychologists, and social workers. Estimates of the average length of treatment, the average price and income elasticities, and the average cost of treatment are obtained from the model. The major conclusions from this study are that psychiatrists do not have a benefit-cost advantage in the treatment of relatively mild conditions, and that consumer responsiveness to variations in price appear to be largely confined to the decision to seek treatment. These and other findings provide a basis for making tentative recommendations about personnel substitution and reimbursement policies in mental health. PMID:10113416

  14. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

    PubMed Central

    Arima, E. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  15. Adequate Funding of Education Programs for At-Risk Children: An Econometric Application of Research-Based Cost Differentials

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alexander, Kern; Wall, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    This article contributes to the ongoing discussion of the adequacy of funding for public schools, specifically with regard to the provision of programs for at-risk children. Of particular concern is the determination of realistic, research-based costs of adequately funded programs. This article has three basic parts: the definition and measurement…

  16. Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach

    PubMed Central

    Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Objective During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers’ sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Methods Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers’ income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Results Short-run price elasticity is estimated at −0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Conclusions Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. PMID:25564137

  17. Healthcare Costs Associated with an Adequate Intake of Sugars, Salt and Saturated Fat in Germany: A Health Econometrical Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Meier, Toni; Senftleben, Karolin; Deumelandt, Peter; Christen, Olaf; Riedel, Katja; Langer, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent not only the major driver for quality-restricted and lost life years; NCDs and their related medical treatment costs also pose a substantial economic burden on healthcare and intra-generational tax distribution systems. The main objective of this study was therefore to quantify the economic burden of unbalanced nutrition in Germany—in particular the effects of an excessive consumption of fat, salt and sugar—and to examine different reduction scenarios on this basis. In this study, the avoidable direct cost savings in the German healthcare system attributable to an adequate intake of saturated fatty acids (SFA), salt and sugar (mono- & disaccharides, MDS) were calculated. To this end, disease-specific healthcare cost data from the official Federal Health Monitoring for the years 2002–2008 and disease-related risk factors, obtained by thoroughly searching the literature, were used. A total of 22 clinical endpoints with 48 risk-outcome pairs were considered. Direct healthcare costs attributable to an unbalanced intake of fat, salt and sugar are calculated to be 16.8 billion EUR (CI95%: 6.3–24.1 billion EUR) in the year 2008, which represents 7% (CI95% 2%-10%) of the total treatment costs in Germany (254 billion EUR). This is equal to 205 EUR per person annually. The excessive consumption of sugar poses the highest burden, at 8.6 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.0–12.1); salt ranks 2nd at 5.3 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.2–7.3) and saturated fat ranks 3rd at 2.9 billion EUR (CI95%: 32 million—4.7 billion). Predicted direct healthcare cost savings by means of a balanced intake of sugars, salt and saturated fat are substantial. However, as this study solely considered direct medical treatment costs regarding an adequate consumption of fat, salt and sugars, the actual societal and economic gains, resulting both from direct and indirect cost savings, may easily exceed 16.8 billion EUR. PMID:26352606

  18. A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

    2014-07-01

    We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

  19. The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia.

    PubMed

    Engel, Christoph; Hamann, Hanjo

    2016-01-01

    The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020. PMID:27467518

  20. Econometric analysis to evaluate the effect of community-based health insurance on reducing informal self-care in Burkina Faso

    PubMed Central

    Robyn, Paul Jacob; Hill, Allan; Liu, Yuanli; Souares, Aurélia; Savadogo, Germain; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study examines the role of community-based health insurance (CBHI) in influencing health-seeking behaviour in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Community-based health insurance was introduced in Nouna district, Burkina Faso, in 2004 with the goal to improve access to contracted providers based at primary- and secondary-level facilities. The paper specifically examines the effect of CBHI enrolment on reducing the prevalence of seeking modern and traditional methods of self-treatment as the first choice in care among the insured population. Methods Three stages of analysis were adopted to measure this effect. First, propensity score matching was used to minimize the observed baseline differences between the insured and uninsured populations. Second, through matching the average treatment effect on the treated, the effect of insurance enrolment on health-seeking behaviour was estimated. Finally, multinomial logistic regression was applied to model demand for available health care options, including no treatment, traditional self-treatment, modern self-treatment, traditional healers and facility-based care. Results For the first choice in care sought, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of self-treatment among the insured and uninsured populations, reaching over 55% for each group. When comparing the alternative option of no treatment, CBHI played no significant role in reducing the demand for self-care (either traditional or modern) or utilization of traditional healers, while it did significantly increase consumption of facility-based care. The average treatment effect on the treated was insignificant for traditional self-care, modern self-care and traditional healer, but was significant with a positive effect for use of facility care. Discussion While CBHI does have a positive impact on facility care utilization, its effect on reducing the prevalence of self-care is limited. The policy recommendations for improving the CBHI scheme’s responsiveness to population health care demand should incorporate community-based initiatives that offer attractive and appropriate alternatives to self-care. PMID:21414993

  1. The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia

    PubMed Central

    Hamann, Hanjo

    2016-01-01

    The (German) market for law professors fulfils the conditions for a hog cycle: In the short run, supply cannot be extended or limited; future law professors must be hired soon after they first present themselves, or leave the market; demand is inelastic. Using a comprehensive German dataset, we show that the number of market entries today is negatively correlated with the number of market entries eight years ago. This suggests short-sighted behavior of young scholars at the time when they decide to prepare for the market. Using our statistical model, we make out-of-sample predictions for the German academic market in law until 2020. PMID:27467518

  2. Order from Chaos? The Effects of Early Labor Market Experience on Adult Labor Market Outcomes. Econometrics and Economic Theory Paper No. 9506.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardecki, Rosella; Neumark, David

    Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NYSY) for 1979-92, an empirical analysis documented and characterized early labor market experiences of men and women in the U.S. economy. It explored the evolution of these labor market experiences over the first 5 years in the labor market and studied the relationships between them and adult labor…

  3. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  4. Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1974-01-01

    The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

  5. A Non-Econometric Analysis with Algebraic Models to Forecast the Numbers of Newly Hired and Retirement of Public Primary School Teachers in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lung-Hsing, Kuo; Hung-Jen, Yang; Ying-Wen, Lin; Shang-Ming, Su

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "street teachers" issue has caused social concern in Taiwan. This study estimates the retirement of and needs for newly hired and public primary school teachers in 2010 using an algebraic model from the paper by Husssar (1999). This recursive methodology predicts the number of newly hired public primary school teachers due to…

  6. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

  7. 39 CFR 3050.22 - Documentation supporting attributable cost estimates in the Postal Service's section 3652 report.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...-Office Cost System (IOCS); (2) The Management Operating Data System (MODS); (3) The City Carrier Cost... output; (h) The econometric analysis of purchased highway transportation cost variability, including input data, processing programs, and output; (i) The econometric analysis of freight rail...

  8. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  9. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...; (6) Identification of applicable statistical models, when model-based procedures are employed; and (7... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic theory underlying the study; (b) A complete description of the econometric model(s) and the reasons for each...

  10. Analysis of the validity of the coefficient estimates and forecasting properties of the RDFOR (Regional Demand FORcasting) models: A summary report: Validation report

    SciTech Connect

    Kuh, E.; Lahiri, S.; Minkoff, A.; Swartz, S.; Welsch, R.

    1982-11-01

    The Regional Demand FORcasting model (RDFOR) is a simple econometric model currently used by the DOE within the Midterm Energy Forecasting System. Econometric models are often used to provide baseline forecasts of near- to mid-term economic behavior. From the point of view of the policymaker, it is desirable to ascertain as objectively as possible the degree to which these econometric forecasts can be trusted. This paper illustrates, within the context of the industrial and residential sectors of RDFOR, a number of diagnostic tools of general interest which are useful in assessing model reliability.

  11. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  12. Recent Developments in Empirical Industrial Organization.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Porter, Robert H.

    1994-01-01

    Presents an bibliographic essay of recent empirical research in industrial organization. Examines topics such as the econometrics of markets with imperfect competition, technology and industry structure, industry evolution, and industry studies of regulation. (CFR)

  13. An Evaluation of Public-Sector-Sponsored Continuous Vocational Training Programs in East Germany.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lechner, Michael

    2000-01-01

    Econometric estimates were used to determine the effects of publicly funded continuous vocational training and retraining in the former East Germany. Results suggest that, despite large public expenditures, no positive effects occurred in the first years after training. (SK)

  14. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  15. Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

    2003-11-01

    Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

  16. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  17. The Impact of the Win 2 Program on Welfare Costs and Recipient Rates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; Hewlett, James G.

    1976-01-01

    The paper presents an econometric analysis of the impact of the Work Incentive Program, as modified by the Talmadge Amendments of 1971 (WIN 2), on Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) program costs and recipient rates. (Author)

  18. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ..., survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they...: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  19. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to...: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  20. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ... data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau programs and activities... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology,...

  1. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where relevant and material... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  2. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  3. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... reference, such as the page and line, or the file and the worksheet or spreadsheet page or cell. Where... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  4. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  5. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  6. An analysis of oil and gas supply modeling techniques and a survey of offshore supply models

    SciTech Connect

    Walls, M.A.

    1990-01-01

    This report surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling techniques. These techniques are categorized as either geologic/engineering, econometric, or hybrid - the last being a combination of geologic and econometric techniques. The geologic/ engineering models are further disaggregated into play analysis models and discovery process models. The strengths and weaknesses of each of the models are discussed. The report concludes with a discussion of how these techniques have been applied to offshore oil and gas supply.

  7. Research on the Rationality of China Telecom Price Cap Regulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Ye; Miao, Yuchen

    Through econometric model, this paper analyzed empirically the data of China telecom output in 1990-2009, studying the rationality of the price regulation on the development of China telecom. During the research, this paper paid more attention to the specific issues and made conclusions by the econometric analysis and testing. It is concluded that price-capping regulation is an effective measure to promote China telecom industry development, while the effect of relax into control is not significant.

  8. State energy modeling. Volume 1: An analysis of state energy modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melcher, A. G.

    1981-05-01

    An inventory and analysis of state energy models were made. The inventory identified 69 models developed or used at the state government level. Most of these deal with energy demand and area mix as regards the sectors modeled and the fuel types included. Nearly all of these are econometric or econometric engineering end use models. Fewer models deal with energy supply, and several address both supply and demand. The most common types of models are econometric, engineering and use, linear programming, and input-output. Purposes of models include: forecasting; policy analysis; impact analysis; and scenario analysis. Uses include short term emergency management, long term strategic assessment, and specific applications in decisions on facility siting, utility capacity expansion and rate increases proposed legislation, and analysis of federal policy.

  9. Study on improving the method of analyzing the economic incident effects caused by public investment policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Momma, Toshiyuki; Hino, Seiichi; Koike, Atsushi; Nakano, Takeshi; Fujii, Satoshi

    A nationwide micro-econometric model was established to estimate changes in the national gross product based on road-related investment amounts. And by considering the supply-demand balance during inflationary and deflationary times and the price adjustment mechanism, this model was then used to examine issues with the current micro-econometric model in light of the present economic circumstances. The results showed that during deflationary times issuing government bonds is less likely to have a crowding-out effect and public investments tend to be more effective than during inflationary times.

  10. Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.

    1981-05-01

    An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.

  11. The effect of relationship status on health with dynamic health and persistent relationships.

    PubMed

    Kohn, Jennifer L; Averett, Susan L

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic evolution of health and persistent relationship status pose econometric challenges to disentangling the causal effect of relationships on health from the selection effect of health on relationship choice. Using a new econometric strategy we find that marriage is not universally better for health. Rather, cohabitation benefits the health of men and women over 45, being never married is no worse for health, and only divorce marginally harms the health of younger men. We find strong evidence that unobservable health-related factors can confound estimates. Our method can be applied to other research questions with dynamic dependent and multivariate endogenous variables. PMID:24769050

  12. Spatial-Temporal Models of Insect Growth, Diffusion and Derivative Pricing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Insect derivatives represent an important innovation in specialty crop risk management. An active over-the-counter market in insect derivatives will require a transparent pricing method. The paper develops an econometric model of the spatio-temporal process underlying a particular insect populatio...

  13. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  14. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  15. The Determinants of Girls' Educational Enrollment in Ghana. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Rebecca; Kyle, Steven

    This study examined the determinants of school enrollment in Ghana, considering historical and social information to formulate an econometric model of school enrollment patterns for households. Data came from a 1989 survey of households in Ghana. The survey collected basic information about community characteristics, health and school facilities,…

  16. Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

    2011-01-01

    The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

  17. Energy Conservation for Low-Income Households: The Evaporative Cooler Experience.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ridge, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    An econometric analysis, using a research design based on the nonequivalent control group (NECG), assessed the effectiveness of a program offering free evaporative coolers to low-income families owning air conditioners. The NECG controls for serious threats to internal validity, except for self-selection. The program successfully reduced energy…

  18. Modeling EU electricity market competition using the residual supply index

    SciTech Connect

    Swinand, Gregory; Scully, Derek; Ffoulkes, Stuart; Kessler, Brian

    2010-11-15

    An econometric approach to related hourly Residual Supply Index to price-cost margins in the major EU electricity generation markets suggests that market structure, as measured by the RSI, is a significant explanatory factor for markups, even when scarcity and other explanatory variables are included. (author)

  19. School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

    2007-01-01

    Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

  20. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  1. Gender and Migration Background in Intergenerational Educational Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneebaum, Alyssa; Rumplmaier, Bernhard; Altzinger, Wilfried

    2016-01-01

    We employ 2011 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey data for Austria to perform uni- and multivariate econometric analyses to study the role of gender and migration background (MB) in intergenerational educational mobility. We find that there is more persistence in the educational attainment of girls relative to their…

  2. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal...

  3. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal...

  4. An Analysis of Contributions and Contributors in Economic Education Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marlin, James W., Jr.; Durden, Garey C.

    1993-01-01

    Reports on a study of 25 years of the content and contributors in economic education research. Finds that economic education has become a legitimate subfield within economics and has grown from mostly descriptive research to sophisticated mathematical and econometric models. (CFR)

  5. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  6. A Graphical Interpretation of Probit Coefficients.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Becker, William E.; Waldman, Donald M.

    1989-01-01

    Contends that, when discrete choice models are taught, particularly the probit model, it is the method rather than the interpretation of the results that is emphasized. This article provides a graphical technique for interpretation of an estimated probit coefficient that will be useful in statistics and econometrics courses. (GG)

  7. The Effect of Training on Productivity: The Transfer of On-the-Job Training from the Perspective of Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Grip, Andries; Sauermann, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Although the transfer of on-the-job training to the workplace belongs to the realm of educational research, it is also highly related to labour economics. In the economic literature, the transfer of training is based on the theoretical framework of human capital theory and has been extensively analysed empirically in econometric studies that take…

  8. The Demand for Higher Education in the Netherlands, 1950-1999

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canton, Erik; de Jong, Frank

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of economic factors in the university enrollment decision for the post-war period in The Netherlands. We include those factors standing at the heart of the idea that education is an investment. The econometric results suggest that students are not responsive to tuition fees, but financial support (the sum of loans…

  9. ECONOMIC AND ENERGY ANALYSES OF REGIONAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two strategic approaches to water quality control in Oregon's Willamette River are presently being utilized: point source treatment and flow augmentation from reservoirs. Input/Output analysis (I/O) provides an econometric methodology to study direct and indirect energy response ...

  10. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Executive Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    A study that forecast the consequences of the projected growth in the number of practicing U.S. physicians during the 1980s and beyond is summarized. Attention was directed to the potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services. Econometric modeling and analysis of…

  11. Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosen, Harvey S.

    1976-01-01

    Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

  12. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  13. The Effects of Factor Prices and Technological Change on the Occupational Demand for Labor: Evidence from Canadian Telecommunications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denny, Michael; Fuss, Melvyn

    1983-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of automation on the occupational demand for labor using modern econometric demand theory. The empirical results demonstrate the strong effects of innovative activity in the telecommunications industry. Technical change was capital-using and labor-saving, with the labor-saving impact being felt most severely by…

  14. Response to Prof. Bormuth's Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Rexford

    Responding to John Bormuth's econometric argument for a more balanced program of support for reading and writing instruction, this paper considers some of the reasons that literacy policy has not been formulated in the economically most rational manner. These reasons include the fact that reading instruction has become politicized, the…

  15. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we…

  16. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  17. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  18. INFERRING WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR HOUSING AMENITIES FROM RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes a new model of consumers' choices in housing markets that incorporates three heretofore overlooked market considerations. The new model has been tested econometrically against the standard model. The new model gives estimates of buyers' willingness to pay for...

  19. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  20. Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

  1. East-West migration in Europe: can migration theories help estimate the numbers?

    PubMed

    Oberg, S; Wils, A B

    1992-01-01

    "In this article, we discuss the types of scientific knowledge that could be used to estimate migration flows." Theories from the disciplines of economics, geography, geopolitics, sociology, demography, econometrics, and history are reviewed. The authors find that "each field provides a partial explanation of...migration flows." The geographical focus is on Europe. PMID:12286068

  2. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the... accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  3. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the... accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  4. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the... accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  5. Altruism in the "Market" for Giving and Receiving: A Case of Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Jang H.; Harrison, William B.

    1989-01-01

    Examines donations to colleges as an outcome of simultaneously solving supply and demand functions. Donors demand attention and prestige supplied by college fund raisers. Using data from 13 colleges, this econometric study shows that the demand side has a unitary elasticity concerning per person donations, while the supply side seems inelastic.…

  6. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  7. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  8. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  9. Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buda, Rodolphe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

  10. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  11. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  12. Examining the Earnings Trajectories of Community College Students Using a Piecewise Growth Curve Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaggars, Shanna Smith; Xu, Di

    2016-01-01

    Policymakers have become increasingly concerned with measuring--and holding colleges accountable for--students' labor market outcomes. In this article we introduce a piecewise growth curve approach to analyzing community college students' labor market outcomes, and we discuss how this approach differs from two popular econometric approaches:…

  13. Faith Schools, Social Capital and Academic Attainment: Evidence from TIMSS-R Mathematics Scores in Flemish Secondary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pugh, Geoff; Telhaj, Shqiponje

    2008-01-01

    Social capital theory, recent developments in the theory of identity and a small econometric literature all suggest positive attainment effects from faith schooling. To test this hypothesis, the authors use a unique data set on Flemish secondary school students from the 1999 repeat of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study to…

  14. Oh No! I Got the Wrong Sign! What Should I Do?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2005-01-01

    Getting a "wrong" sign in empirical work is a common phenomenon. Remarkably, econometrics textbooks provide very little information to practitioners on how this problem can arise. The author exposits a long list of ways in which a wrong sign can occur and how it might be corrected.

  15. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  16. School Cost Functions: A Meta-Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colegrave, Andrew D.; Giles, Margaret J.

    2008-01-01

    The education cost literature includes econometric studies attempting to determine economies of scale, or estimate an optimal school or district size. Not only do their results differ, but the studies use dissimilar data, techniques, and models. To derive value from these studies requires that the estimates be made comparable. One method to do…

  17. Teaching Statistics in an Activity Encouraging Format

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knypstra, Sytse

    2009-01-01

    In a statistics course for bachelor students in econometrics a new format was adopted in which students were encouraged to study more actively and in which cooperative learning and peer teaching was implemented. Students had to work in groups of two or three students where each group had to perform certain tasks. One of these tasks was: explaining…

  18. Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

  19. Advance to and Persistence in Graduate School: Identifying the Influential Factors and Major-Based Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2014-01-01

    Structured within an expanded econometric theoretical framework, this study uses national data sources to identify the critical factors that influence college graduates' advance to and persistence in graduate education and to compare the systematic differences between students in the STEM and non-STEM majors. The findings indicate that there is a…

  20. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  1. A Tool To Assess Journal Price Discrimination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyer, Richard W.

    2001-01-01

    The author designed an experiment to determine whether periodical price inflation might be dampened by electronic scholarship. This article discusses results of an econometric analysis of prices for 859 periodical titles for three consecutive years, and concludes with a description of an analytical tool that may be used to assess journal prices.…

  2. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  3. Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

    Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

  4. Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boal, William M.

    1990-01-01

    This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

  5. Survey of conditional energy demand models for estimating residential unit energy consumption coefficients. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Lawrence, A.G.; Parti, M.

    1984-02-01

    Several recent econometric studies of residential energy use are reviewed. These studies specify residential energy use as the sum of energy use in each of several household appliances (including space conditioning systems). The energy used in each of the enumerated appliances (e.g., end-uses) is called its unit energy consumption (UEC) coefficient. Most of the studies use household survey data combined with utility billing records. In general, the UEC coefficients are parameterized as functions of weather conditions, household income, the size of the dwelling, the demographic composition of the household, the price of energy, and other variables from the survey data. A few of the studies have explored the econometric issues of demand analysis under the block tariff schedules prevalent in the utility industry. Some studies report price elasticities or income elasticities or both for specific end-uses. These studies show that such econometric estimation is a successful and efficient tool for measuring electricity consumption by end-use. Their results are compared with engineering estimates from other extant studies. Results from these econometric UEC models have improved the accuracy and end-use detail of the energy forecasting models of some utilities.

  6. Class-Size Effects on Adolescents' Mental Health and Well-Being in Swedish Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jakobsson, Niklas; Persson, Mattias; Svensson, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes whether class size has an effect on the prevalence of mental health problems and well-being among adolescents in Swedish schools. We use cross-sectional data collected in year 2008 covering 2755 Swedish adolescents in ninth grade from 40 schools and 159 classes. We utilize different econometric approaches to address potential…

  7. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  8. Modeling and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

  9. Lessons in Reading Reform: Finding What Works. Technical Appendix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betts, Julian R.; Zau, Andrew C.; Koedel, Cory

    2010-01-01

    This technical appendix provides more detail on the reading reforms implemented under the Blueprint for Student Success project in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) between 2000 and 2005. It provides details on the dataset, the econometric methods the authors employed, and the results, which are also detailed and discussed in the main…

  10. Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Larson S. W. M.

    2011-01-01

    The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

  11. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  12. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  13. The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2009-01-01

    Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…

  14. Education Returns of Wage Earners and Self-Employed Workers: Response

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garcia-Mainar, Inmaculada; Montuenga-Gomez, Victor M.

    2009-01-01

    This is a response to [Jordahl, H., Poutvaara, P., & Tuomala, J. (2009). Comment on education returns of wage earners and self-employed workers. "Economics of Education Review" 28]. We acknowledge that econometrics have improved since the time our original paper was written, so that the choice of accurate instruments is now more deeply founded.…

  15. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  16. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  17. Determinants of Employee Tardiness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leigh, J. Paul; Lust, John

    1988-01-01

    The Tobit econometrics technique was used to analyze data from the University of Michigan's Quality of Employment Survey 1972-73 regarding the correlates of work tardiness. Evidence is found that (1) marriage and experience have negative and significant effects on tardiness; (2) professionals and commuters are tardy more often than others; and (3)…

  18. Manipulating Educational Expenditure: Dilemmas for the '70s. Monograph Series/13.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Handa, M. L.

    This document has been extracted from the same author's "Toward a Rational Educational Policy," which is an econometric analysis of the components of educational expenditure in the Ontario educational system. The author outlines some substantial changes in approach to educational policy that will be necessary if desirable educational objectives…

  19. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  20. Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

    1982-04-01

    Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

  1. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  2. Be as Careful of the Company You Keep as of the Books You Read: Peer Effects in Education and on the Labor Market. NBER Working Paper No. 14948

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Pellizzari, Michele; Redaelli, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether peers' behavior influences the choice of college major, thus contributing to the mismatch of skills in the labor market. Using a newly constructed dataset, we are able to identify the endogenous effect of peers on such decisions through a novel identification strategy that solves the common econometric problems…

  3. 77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-04

    ..., uniform commodity. In theory, a wellhead price could be derived from nearby spot prices, assuming that....S. natural gas wellhead price using a time-series econometric model, which incorporates data from..., June 2012, for details). These model-based estimates were replaced with the data submissions...

  4. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    The potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services is addressed in detail in this final research report. Econometric modeling and analyses of economic activity within the health sector were undertaken. An eight equation model of the hospital and physician sectors…

  5. Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

  6. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  7. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  8. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2010-01-01

    The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

  9. The Way We Were (and Are): Changes in Public Finance and Its Textbooks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosen, Harvey S.

    1997-01-01

    Comparison of a contemporary public finance textbook with one written in the 1940s indicates the following major changes in the field: microeconomic theory is now the framework for analyzing positive and normative issues; research is dominated by econometrics; and topical coverage has changed along with changes in public policy. (JOW)

  10. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  11. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: Detailed Analysis of Selected Occupations and Industries. Report to the Honorable Berkley Bedell, United States House of Representatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    To compile its projections of future employment levels, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) combines the following five interlinked models in a six-step process: a labor force model, an econometric model of the U.S. economy, an industry activity model, an industry labor demand model, and an occupational labor demand model. The BLS was asked to…

  12. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  13. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  14. Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

  15. Revisiting the Principle of Relative Constancy: Consumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupagne, Michel; Green, R. Jeffery

    1996-01-01

    Proposes two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). Reports on regression and cointegration analyses conducted with Belgian mass media expenditure data from 1953-91. Suggests that alternative mass media expenditure models should be developed because PRC lacks of economic foundation and sound empirical…

  16. Key Management Challenges in Smart Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Duren, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Agenda Awarded in February 2011 Team of industry and research organizations Project Objectives Address difficult issues Complexity Diversity of systems Scale Longevity of solution Participate in standards efforts and working groups Develop innovative key management solutions Modeling and simulation ORNL Cyber Security Econometric Enterprise System Demonstrate effectiveness of solution Demonstrate scalability

  17. From Data to Bonuses: A Case Study of the Issues Related to Awarding Teachers Pay on the Basis of Their Students' Progress. Working Paper 2008-14

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Han, Bing; Lockwood, J. R.

    2008-01-01

    A key component to the new wave of performance-based pay initiatives is the use of student achievement data to evaluate teacher performance. As greater amounts of student achievement data are being collected, researchers have been developing and applying innovative statistical and econometric models to longitudinal data to develop measures of an…

  18. Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

  19. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  20. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  1. The (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-Income Country.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schady, Norbert R.

    This paper analyzes the effects of the 1988-1992 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions taken by school-aged children in urban areas. It discusses the Peruvian setting during this period and describes the data used in the analysis and the econometric specification. Two basic findings were made: (1) there was no…

  2. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  3. Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in recent past due to frequent detections of nitrogen concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon Rive...

  4. The Search for Equity in School Finance: Michigan School District Response to a Guaranteed Tax Base.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Rolla Edward; Carroll, Stephen J.

    Part of a three-volume report on the effects of school finance reform, this volume examines the effects of reform on Michigan school districts' budgets from 1971 to 1976. Econometric models were used. Researchers found a very small "price" effect--an elasticity of -.02. The data provide no evidence that state matching grants stimulate school…

  5. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  6. The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng

    2007-01-01

    Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…

  7. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco: Can the Government Improve Outcomes? World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 264.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others

    This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…

  8. 15-Year Enrollment and WSCH Forecast: California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office 1996 Forecast Using Statewide Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.

    In January 1996, the Chancellor's Office of the California Community Colleges prepared a 15-year forecast of enrollment and weekly student contact hours (WSCH) using an econometric model that analyzes real (i.e., price-adjusted) costs facing students, real operating budget expenditures of colleges, population and unemployment projections, and…

  9. Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mangan, Jean; Pugh, Geoff; Gray, John

    2005-01-01

    The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement…

  10. Household Schooling Decisions in Rural Pakistan. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sawada, Yasuyuki; Lokshin, Michael

    A study of household schooling decisions in rural Pakistan found serious supply-side constraints on female primary education in the villages studied. Field surveys of 25 Pakistani villages were integrated with economic theory and econometric analysis to investigate the sequential nature of educational decisions. The full-information maximum…

  11. Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

  12. The Case of Effort Variables in Student Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Mary O.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Tests the existence of a structural shift between above- and below-average students in the econometric models that explain students' grades in principles of economics classes. Identifies a structural shift and estimates separate models for above- and below-average students. Concludes that separate models as well as educational policies are…

  13. Predisposition Factors of Career and Technical Education Transfer Students: A Hermeneutic Phenomenology Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hioki, Warren Glen

    2009-01-01

    Various econometric, sociological, and combined research models (e.g., Hossler and Gallagher's preeminent Three-Phase Model on College Choice) provide help in understanding high school students in their decision-making stages and college experience. Many studies that utilize these models on college choice strongly substantiate and perpetuate the…

  14. Web-based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chizmar, John F.; Walbert, Mark S.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the preparation and execution of a statistics course, an undergraduate econometrics course, and a microeconomic theory course that all utilize Internet technology. Reviews seven principles of teaching practice in order to demonstrate how to enhance the quality of student learning using Web technologies. Includes reactions by Steve Hurd…

  15. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  16. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  17. Prorationing and reserves constraints for Texas oil production, 1945-1995

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackburne, Edward Francis, III

    Texas relies on the oil industry for direct tax revenues and jobs. The importance of oil to the state is not subject to debate. This dissertation models this all important supply of Texas onshore oil. Throughout this dissertation, the prorationing constraint and the cost constraint of reserves were explored. Two classes of models were estimated: (i) geophysical specifications, in the spirit of Hubbert Curves, and (ii) econometric models of partial adjustment. The econometric models were applied to both state aggregate data and a panel data set of the twelve Texas Railroad Commission districts. Various panel data techniques were explored. The marginal effect of prorationing on oil production was a strong limiting factor to oil producers until 1973. The stock of oil in the ground represents a cost constraint to producers. It is these two constraints, not prices, that dictate our state oil supply.

  18. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  19. A dynamic model of industrial energy demand in Kenya

    SciTech Connect

    Haji, S.H.H.

    1994-12-31

    This paper analyses the effects of input price movements, technology changes, capacity utilization and dynamic mechanisms on energy demand structures in the Kenyan industry. This is done with the help of a variant of the second generation dynamic factor demand (econometric) model. This interrelated disequilibrium dynamic input demand econometric model is based on a long-term cost function representing production function possibilities and takes into account the asymmetry between variable inputs (electricity, other-fuels and Tabour) and quasi-fixed input (capital) by imposing restrictions on the adjustment process. Variations in capacity utilization and slow substitution process invoked by the relative input price movement justifies the nature of input demand disequilibrium. The model is estimated on two ISIS digit Kenyan industry time series data (1961 - 1988) using the Iterative Zellner generalized least square method. 31 refs., 8 tabs.

  20. Productive trends in India's energy intensive industries

    SciTech Connect

    Roy, J.; Sathaye, J.; Sanstad, A.; Mongia, P.; Schumacher, K.

    1999-07-01

    This paper reports on an analysis of productivity growth and input trends in six energy intensive sectors of the Indian economy, using growth accounting and econometric methods. The econometric work estimates rates and factor price biases of technological change using a translog production model with an explicit relationship defined for technological change. Estimates of own-price responses indicate that raising energy prices would be an effective carbon abatement policy for India. At the same time, the authors results suggest that, as with previous findings on the US economy, such policies in India could have negative long run effects on productivity in these sectors. Inter-input substitution possibilities are relatively weak, so that such policies might have negative short and medium term effects on sectoral growth. The authors study provides information relevant for the analysis of costs and benefits of carbon abatement policies applied to India and thus contributes to the emerging body of modeling and analysis of global climate policy.

  1. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  2. Economic impact of climate

    SciTech Connect

    Eddy, A.

    1980-05-01

    This volume summarizes the first two of a series of six workshops to investigate the economic impact of climate. These two workshops dealt mainly with input-output and econometric models. Potential for introducing weather and climate variables was discussed. A listing of topics and authors follows: Economic Models and the Identification of Climatic Effects on Economic Processes, Stan Johnson; Economic Modeling, Jim Morgan; Econometric Modeling: State of the Arts for the US Agricultural Industry, Abner Womack; Regional Input-Output Models: Understanding Their Application, Charles Lamphear; Measuring Regional Economic Impact Associated With Unfavorable Conditions During Crop Production Periods: A concept Paper, Charles Lamphear; Possible Applications of Input-Output Models in Climatic Impact Analysis, William Cooter; and Aspects of Input-Output Analysis Pertinent to Climate-Economic Modeling: Three Short Notes, William Cooter. (PSB)

  3. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  4. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run. PMID:22581267

  5. Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

  6. Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: residential energy demand in the United States. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, L.D.; Blattenberger, G.R.; Rennhack, R.K.

    1982-04-01

    Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel types using time-series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

  7. Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

  8. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  9. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  10. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  11. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  12. Market and economic analysis of residential photovoltaic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tabors, R. D.

    1982-06-01

    The overall structure of a project to evaluate the U.S. residential photovoltaic market or markets is reviewed and experience obtained before cuts in federal funding for the project were reduced is summarized. Topics covered include residential worth analysis, (including retrofit applications); evaluation of presently available regional, econometric models which could be used to project housing stocks; and the analysis of retrofit potential for residential photovoltaic power systems given available roof area.

  13. Uranium price forecasting methods

    SciTech Connect

    Fuller, D.M.

    1994-03-01

    This article reviews a number of forecasting methods that have been applied to uranium prices and compares their relative strengths and weaknesses. The methods reviewed are: (1) judgemental methods, (2) technical analysis, (3) time-series methods, (4) fundamental analysis, and (5) econometric methods. Historically, none of these methods has performed very well, but a well-thought-out model is still useful as a basis from which to adjust to new circumstances and try again.

  14. Forest management and economics

    SciTech Connect

    Buongiorno, J.; Gilless, J.K.

    1987-01-01

    This volume provides a survey of quantitative methods, guiding the reader through formulation and analysis of models that address forest management problems. The authors use simple mathematics, graphics, and short computer programs to explain each method. Emphasizing applications, they discuss linear, integer, dynamic, and goal programming; simulation; network modeling; and econometrics, as these relate to problems of determining economic harvest schedules in even-aged and uneven-aged forests, the evaluation of forest policies, multiple-objective decision making, and more.

  15. Tax revenue and innovations in natural gas supply: New Mexico

    SciTech Connect

    Ulibarri, C.A.; Marsh, T.L.

    1994-10-01

    This paper develops an econometric model of natural gas supply at the state-level using New Mexico as a case study. The supply model is estimated using annual time series observations on production levels, delivered prices, proved reserves, existing wells, and extraction costs. The authors validate the model against historical data and then use it to consider the fiscal impacts on state tax revenue from innovations in extraction technologies.

  16. Maximum entropy and Bayesian methods. Proceedings.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grandy, W. T., Jr.; Schick, L. H.

    This volume contains a selection of papers presented at the Tenth Annual Workshop on Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods. The thirty-six papers included cover a wide range of applications in areas such as economics and econometrics, astronomy and astrophysics, general physics, complex systems, image reconstruction, and probability and mathematics. Together they give an excellent state-of-the-art overview of fundamental methods of data analysis.

  17. How many kilowatts are in a negawatt? Verifying ex post estimates of utility conservation impacts at the regional level

    SciTech Connect

    Parfomak, P.W.; Lave, L.B.

    1996-12-31

    Restructuring of utilities raises questions about the future of conservation programs. One of the greatest obstacles has been the persistent uncertainity among utility planners regarding true resource effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservation relative to conventional generation. The authors use econometric techniques to examine the aggregate commercial and industrial conservation impacts reported. The paper shows that utility conservation programs have been effective in reducing electric loads and that utilities have reported accurately. 44 refs., 3 tabs.

  18. Long-range correlations in time series generated by time-fractional diffusion: A numerical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbieri, Davide; Vivoli, Alessandro

    2005-09-01

    Time series models showing power law tails in autocorrelation functions are common in econometrics. A special non-Markovian model for such kind of time series is provided by the random walk introduced by Gorenflo et al. as a discretization of time fractional diffusion. The time series so obtained are analyzed here from a numerical point of view in terms of autocorrelations and covariance matrices.

  19. Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  20. Dynamics of Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  1. India's iron and steel industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1998-10-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's iron and steel sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both growth accounting and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that over the observed period from 1973--74 to 1993--94 productivity declined by 1.71{percent} as indicated by the Translog index. Calculations of the Kendrick and Solow indices support this finding. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's iron and steel sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protective policy regarding price and distribution of iron and steel as well as by large inefficiencies in public sector integrated steel plants. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? Most likely they will not. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with the liberalization of the iron and steel sector, the industry is rapidly moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use in existing and future plants.

  2. A socio-economic method for estimating future air pollutant emissions—Chicago case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, Zhining; Williams, Allen; Donaghy, Kieran; Hewings, Geoffrey

    This paper presents the development of an econometric-emission model to formulate future anthropogenic emission inventories for different societal and climate change scenarios. Our approach is to formulate the emission projections for a given scenario into growth factors that can be used to project forward the 1999 National Emission Inventory (NEI99). The process involves (1) mapping NEI99 source classification code (SCC)-based emissions into the sector or standard industrial classification (SIC)-based representation used by the econometric model, (2) developing a sectoral emission intensity (EMI) defined as the sector emissions per unit of sector economic output and the mechanism to consider EMI variations over time, (3) using the resulting EMI with econometric models and future emission activities to project future emissions, (4) and then mapping the emissions back to the original NEI99 format. As a case study, we apply the model to project emissions in the Chicago metropolitan area. The results show that the model is a fast, flexible, yet reasonable tool to produce a wide range of emission scenarios that are specific to regions, and would prove valuable for future air quality and other impact studies.

  3. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.

  4. Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

    PubMed Central

    XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

    2016-01-01

    Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

  5. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  6. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  7. Nurse staffing, quality, and financial performance.

    PubMed

    McCue, Michael; Mark, Barbara A; Harless, David W

    2003-01-01

    In examining the relationship among nurse staffing, quality of care, and financial performance, prior empirical studies used competing measures and applied different levels of analysis. Using longitudinal data from 1990 through 1995, our study applied a dynamic econometric model to evaluate whether hospitals that changed their nurse staffing and quality of care affected their financial performance. Sampling 422 hospitals over this study period, we found a statistically significant increase in operating costs when registered nurse levels increase, but no statistically significant decrease in profit. Higher levels of non-nurse staffing caused higher operating expenses, as well as lower profits. PMID:12908654

  8. Public understanding of participation in regulatory decision-making: The case of bottled water quality standards in India.

    PubMed

    Bhaduri, Saradindu; Sharma, Aviram

    2014-05-01

    "Science-based" standards are an integral part of modern regulatory systems. Studies on "public understanding of science" mostly focus on high technology areas in advanced economies. In contrast, the present study analyses the public understanding of regulation in the context of standard-setting for bottled water quality in India. Using primary data, the econometric models of this paper show that public understanding of participation in regulation depends on awareness of, and trust in, existing regulatory practices in a complex, non-linear manner. In this light, the paper argues that "deficit model" and "dialogue model" frameworks cannot be seen as two mutually exclusive frameworks of analyses. PMID:23825253

  9. What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

  10. Is inequality harmful for the environment? An empirical analysis applied to developing and transition countries.

    PubMed

    Clement, Matthieu; Meunie, Andre

    2010-01-01

    The object of this article is to examine the relation between social inequalities and pollution. First of all we provide a survey demonstrating that, from a theoretical point of view, a decrease in inequality has an uncertain impact on the environment. Second, on the basis of these conceptual considerations, we propose an econometric analysis based on panel data (fixed-effects and dynamic panel data models) concerning developing and transition countries for the 1988-2003 period. We examine specifically the effect of inequality on the extent of local pollution (sulphur dioxide emissions and organic water pollution) by integrating the Gini index into the formulation of the environmental Kuznets' curve. PMID:21280382

  11. A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

    PubMed

    Shriver, K A

    1986-01-01

    Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses. PMID:10279817

  12. Pre- and postnatal drivers of childhood intelligence: evidence from Singapore.

    PubMed

    Pacheco, Gail; Hedges, Mary; Schilling, Chris; Morton, Susan

    2013-01-01

    This study seeks to investigate what influences intelligence in early childhood. The Singapore Cohort Study of the Risk Factors of Myopia (SCORM) is used to assess determinants of childhood IQ and changes in IQ. This longitudinal data set, collected in 1999, includes a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic and prenatal characteristics. The richness of the data allows various econometric approaches to be employed, including the use of ordered and multinomial logit analysis. Mother's education is found to be a consistent and key determinant of childhood IQ. Father's education and school quality are found to be key drivers for increasing IQ levels above the average sample movement. PMID:22716898

  13. Econometricians, your probabilities are close to their end. Economists, now look for a new world!

    PubMed

    Brian, Éric

    2015-01-01

    The article examines several stochastic layers of epistemic reasoning at work in econometrics and in the current economic methods: (1) the argumentative level; (2) the reasoning based on the analogy with gambling; (3) the models based on analytical calculation of probabilities, where the phenomenon is held centered, its uncertainty being controlled by white noise as to its fluctuation; (4) the axiomatic calculus. Entanglement of these strata is observed. The article calls for reflexion on the topic. Doing so, it introduces the concept of stochastic cognitive artifacts. PMID:26223418

  14. Fractional derivatives of random walks: Time series with long-time memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roman, H. Eduardo; Porto, Markus

    2008-09-01

    We review statistical properties of models generated by the application of a (positive and negative order) fractional derivative operator to a standard random walk and show that the resulting stochastic walks display slowly decaying autocorrelation functions. The relation between these correlated walks and the well-known fractionally integrated autoregressive models with conditional heteroskedasticity (FIGARCH), commonly used in econometric studies, is discussed. The application of correlated random walks to simulate empirical financial times series is considered and compared with the predictions from FIGARCH and the simpler FIARCH processes. A comparison with empirical data is performed.

  15. Balancing the present and the future: a study of contraceptive use in Calcutta's slums.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Mousumi; Husain, Zakir

    2011-01-01

    Calcutta, an important metropolitan city in eastern India, has a large slum population. Despite the poor economic status of this population, analysis of DHS data (2004-2005) reveals that contraceptive use levels in Calcutta slums is quite high, with a large proportion preferring terminal methods. Econometric analysis reveals that cultural factors are important determinants of contraceptive use. Results also indicate that respondents attempt to balance current needs (by trying to limit family size through use of contraceptives) but also try to provide for the future (by having at least one son before adopting family planning methods). PMID:21677526

  16. Well-being losses due to care-giving.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G; Hall, Jane

    2014-05-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888

  17. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1992-10-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  18. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  19. Modeling the world in a spreadsheet: Environmental simulation on a microcomputer

    SciTech Connect

    Cartwright, T.J.

    1993-12-31

    This article focuses on the following: Modeling Natural Systems Blowing Smoke; Atmospheric Dispersion of Air Pollution Running Water; The Underground Transport of Pollutants Preserving the Species; Determining Minimum Viable Population Sustainable Yield; Managing the Forest for the Trees Here Comes the Sun; Solar Energy from a Flat-Plate Collector Modeling Social Systems Macroeconomic Policy; Econometrics and the Klein Model Urban Form; The Lowry Model of Population Distribution Affordable Housing; The Bertaud/World Bank Model Traffic on the Roads; Modeling Trip Generation and Trip Distribution Throwing Things Away; A Model for Waste Management Apples and Oranges; and An Environmental Impact Assessment Model Modeling Artificial Systems Life in a Spreadsheet.

  20. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  1. Gasoline demand in developing Asian countries

    SciTech Connect

    McRae, R.

    1994-12-31

    This paper presents econometric estimates of motor gasoline demand in eleven developing countries of Asia. The price and GDP per capita elasticities are estimated for each country separately, and for several pooled combinations of the countries. The estimated elasticities for the Asian countries are compared with those of the OECD countries. Generally, one finds that the OECD countries have GDP elasticities that are smaller, and price elasticities that are larger (in absolute value). The price elasticities for the low-income Asian countries are more inelastic than for the middle-income Asian countries, and the GDP elasticities are generally more elastic. 13 refs., 6 tabs.

  2. Measuring the costs and benefits of conservation programs

    SciTech Connect

    Einhorn, M.A.

    1985-07-25

    A step-by-step analysis of the effects of utility-sponsored conservation promoting programs begins by identifying several factors which will reduce a program's effectiveness. The framework for measuring cost savings and designing a conservation program needs to consider the size of appliance subsidies, what form incentives should take, and how will customer behavior change as a result of incentives. Continual reevaluation is necessary to determine whether to change the size of rebates or whether to continue the program. Analytical tools for making these determinations are improving as conceptual breakthroughs in econometrics permit more rigorous analysis. 5 figures.

  3. Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume III: forecasts of the composition of household motor vehicle holdings. Final report Oct 77-Feb 80

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, L.; Manski, C.F.; Ginn, J.R.

    1980-02-01

    This volume presents forecasts of household vehicle type purchases and holdings over the 1978 - 1985 period covered by Title V fuel economy Standards. The forecasts are based on an econometric model explaining the make, model and vintage composition of individual household vehicle holdings. The empirical analysis is based on a national random sample of households contacted in February, 1976. Two models are estimated, one explaining the compositions of holdings in one-vehicle households, and the other explaining vehicle choices in multiple-vehicle households.

  4. Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

  5. A multi-resolution approach for optimal mass transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominitz, Ayelet; Angenent, Sigurd; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2007-09-01

    Optimal mass transport is an important technique with numerous applications in econometrics, fluid dynamics, automatic control, statistical physics, shape optimization, expert systems, and meteorology. Motivated by certain problems in image registration and medical image visualization, in this note, we describe a simple gradient descent methodology for computing the optimal L2 transport mapping which may be easily implemented using a multiresolution scheme. We also indicate how the optimal transport map may be computed on the sphere. A numerical example is presented illustrating our ideas.

  6. Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  7. Explaining the variation in elasticity estimates of gasoline demand in the United States: A meta-analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Espey, M.

    1996-12-01

    Many econometric studies of gasoline demand have been conducted over the years when fuel prices where high and concerns about energy conservation and security of supply were prominent. Studies were motivated by interest in gasoline consumers` sensitivity to fuel price changes, for the insight this might give in explaining cross country differences in gas consumption and driving and in predicting the impact of fuel tax changes on driving, fuel consumption and government revenue collections. The author used meta-analysis to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand in the United States.

  8. An evaluation of dynamic mutuality measurements and methods in cyclic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Xiaohua; Huang, Guitian; Duan, Na

    2010-12-01

    Several measurements and techniques have been developed to detect dynamic mutuality and synchronicity of time series in econometrics. This study aims to compare the performances of five methods, i.e., linear regression, dynamic correlation, Markov switching models, concordance index and recurrence quantification analysis, through numerical simulations. We evaluate the abilities of these methods to capture structure changing and cyclicity in time series and the findings of this paper would offer guidance to both academic and empirical researchers. Illustration examples are also provided to demonstrate the subtle differences of these techniques.

  9. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  10. GARCH modelling of covariance in dynamical estimation of inverse solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galka, Andreas; Yamashita, Okito; Ozaki, Tohru

    2004-12-01

    The problem of estimating unobserved states of spatially extended dynamical systems poses an inverse problem, which can be solved approximately by a recently developed variant of Kalman filtering; in order to provide the model of the dynamics with more flexibility with respect to space and time, we suggest to combine the concept of GARCH modelling of covariance, well known in econometrics, with Kalman filtering. We formulate this algorithm for spatiotemporal systems governed by stochastic diffusion equations and demonstrate its feasibility by presenting a numerical simulation designed to imitate the situation of the generation of electroencephalographic recordings by the human cortex.

  11. Within-family variation in obesity.

    PubMed

    Price, Joseph; Swigert, Jeffrey

    2012-12-01

    We use data from the Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 to document the degree to which childhood obesity varies among siblings. We find considerable differences in body weight between siblings with over half of the siblings differing by more than 20 age-specific percentiles in terms of the body mass index. Even among identical twins, there is an average BMI difference of 12 percentiles. This variation is important for the use of econometric approaches that involve sibling comparisons. PMID:22640530

  12. DDT (2,2,bis(p-chlorophenyl) 1,1,1-trichloroethane) induced structural changes in adrenal glands of rats

    SciTech Connect

    Chowdhury, A.R.; Gautam, A.K.; Venkatakrishna-Bhatt, H. )

    1990-08-01

    Oldest chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticide, DDT was used widely to control pest and vector borne diseases in developing countries. Malaria and vector borne diseases can be econometrically controlled by DDT. Chronic and acute exposures to DDT result in systemic disorders in human as well as this confirmed in animals. Experimental study revealed that DDT caused the structural and functional changes in thyroid and reproductive system. The effects of DDT on adrenal glands are not well documented. Therefore this experimental investigation was undertaken to evaluate the histomorphological changes of adrenal gland after the treatment with DDT in rats.

  13. Stochastic Calculus and Differential Equations for Physics and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2013-02-01

    1. Random variables and probability distributions; 2. Martingales, Markov, and nonstationarity; 3. Stochastic calculus; 4. Ito processes and Fokker-Planck equations; 5. Selfsimilar Ito processes; 6. Fractional Brownian motion; 7. Kolmogorov's PDEs and Chapman-Kolmogorov; 8. Non Markov Ito processes; 9. Black-Scholes, martingales, and Feynman-Katz; 10. Stochastic calculus with martingales; 11. Statistical physics and finance, a brief history of both; 12. Introduction to new financial economics; 13. Statistical ensembles and time series analysis; 14. Econometrics; 15. Semimartingales; References; Index.

  14. Measuring natural resource scarcity

    SciTech Connect

    Halvorsen, R.; Smith, T.R.

    1984-10-01

    Conclusions concerning trends in natural resource scarcity may depend critically on the choice of scarcity index. Unfortunately, the prevalence of vertical integration in natural resource industries has hindered the use of some otherwise desirable scarcity measures. In this paper duality theory is used to derive an econometric procedure for estimating one such measure, the shadow price of the resource in situ. Empirical results for the Canadian metal mining industry indicate that resource scarcity as measured by this shadow price has decreased substantially over time. 23 refernces, 1 table.

  15. Medical technology and health expenditure: an economic review and a proposal.

    PubMed

    Doessel, D

    1986-01-01

    This paper is an evaluative survey of the economic literature on the relationship between technology and/or innovation and health expenditures. Various types of analysis viz. econometric modelling; three residual approaches; the cost-of-illness approach; and the literature on supplier interests are contrasted, and the results presented. The paper concludes with a discussion of the policy and planning implications, and a simple, and conventional, proposal is made that could unambiguously determine this relationship in the case of process innovations. PMID:10311981

  16. Demand 80/81: Forecasts of energy consumption to the year 2000. Volume 1: Forecasts and description of the forecasting model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, A. M.; Crow, R. T.

    1981-10-01

    National forecasts of end use consumption of electricity, liquid hydrocarbons, gaseous hydrocarbons, and coal are presented. The forecasts are based on an econometric model whose equations represent energy consumption of each form of energy in each end use sector. Each forecast is conditional upon a common forecast of long run economic growth, coupled with a scenario concerning energy prices and conservation policy. The scenarios are composed of four alternative sets of assumptions about energy prices and three alternative sets of assumptions on conservation policy.

  17. Well-being losses due to care-giving☆☆☆

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G.; Hall, Jane

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888

  18. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  19. Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M.; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J.; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. PMID:23178328

  20. A simultaneous-equations analysis of urban development: migration and industrial growth in Israel's new towns.

    PubMed

    Gabriel, S A; Justman, M; Levy, A

    1987-05-01

    A simultaneous-equations econometric model is used to analyze the recent development of new towns in Israel. The focus is on the relationships among migration, industrial investment, employment, and other structural and policy variables affecting urban development. "Our results affirm the importance of economic opportunity, agglomeration effects, population socioeconomic and ethnic composition, and access in determining migration flows. At the same time, unemployment and investment indices are affected by local labor-market conditions, government incentives, and regional development effects as well as by population composition and migration flows. Policy implications of the analysis are considered." PMID:12341521

  1. Migration plans and hours of work in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Gillin, E D; Sumner, D A

    1985-01-01

    "This article describes characteristics of prospective migrants in the Malaysian Family Life Survey and investigates how planning to move affects hours of work. [The authors] use ideas about intertemporal substitution...to discuss the response to temporary and permanent wage expectations on the part of potential migrants. [An] econometric section presents reduced-form estimates for wage rates and planned migration equations and two-stage least squares estimates for hours of work. Men currently planning a move were found to work fewer hours. Those originally planning only a temporary stay at their current location work more hours." PMID:12280256

  2. Volumetric Pricing of Agricultural Water Supplies: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, Ronald C.; Perry, Gregory M.

    1985-07-01

    Models of water consumption by rice producers are conceptualized and then estimated using cross-sectional time series data obtained from 16 Texas canal operators for the years 1977-1982. Two alternative econometric models demonstrate that both volumetric and flat rate water charges are strongly and inversely related to agricultural water consumption. Nonprice conservation incentives accompanying flat rates are hypothesized to explain the negative correlation of flat rate charges and water consumption. Application of these results suggests that water supply organizations in the sample population converting to volumetric pricing will generally reduce water consumption.

  3. On detecting and modeling periodic correlation in financial data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, E.; Makagon, A.; Weron, R.; Wyłomańska, A.

    2004-05-01

    For many economic problems standard statistical analysis, based on the notion of stationarity, is not adequate. These include modeling seasonal decisions of consumers, forecasting business cycles and-as we show in the present article-modeling wholesale power market prices. We apply standard methods and a novel spectral domain technique to conclude that electricity price returns exhibit periodic correlation with daily and weekly periods. As such they should be modeled with periodically correlated processes. We propose to apply periodic autoregression models which are closely related to the standard instruments in econometric analysis-vector autoregression models.

  4. The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China

    SciTech Connect

    Poon, J.P.H.; Casas, I.; He, C.F.

    2006-09-15

    A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide.

  5. Suicide and unemployment: a panel analysis of Canadian provinces.

    PubMed

    Jalles, João Tovar; Andresen, Martin A

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the causal relationship between suicide and unemployment. We use panel data from Canadian provinces and use recent panel econometric techniques to account for endogenous structural breaks in both the unit root and cointegration testing procedures in order to account for statistical specification issues. We find that the relationship between unemployment and suicide is context dependent. We do find positive and statistically significant relationships, but only for males in particular provinces. The relationship between unemployment and suicide is not monolithic. Rather, relationships are not always as expected for different demographic groups and all places. PMID:24579917

  6. Genetic markers as instrumental variables

    PubMed Central

    von Hinke, Stephanie; Davey Smith, George; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Propper, Carol; Windmeijer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    The use of genetic markers as instrumental variables (IV) is receiving increasing attention from economists, statisticians, epidemiologists and social scientists. Although IV is commonly used in economics, the appropriate conditions for the use of genetic variants as instruments have not been well defined. The increasing availability of biomedical data, however, makes understanding of these conditions crucial to the successful use of genotypes as instruments. We combine the econometric IV literature with that from genetic epidemiology, and discuss the biological conditions and IV assumptions within the statistical potential outcomes framework. We review this in the context of two illustrative applications. PMID:26614692

  7. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  8. Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

  9. Willingness to pay for ovulation induction treatment in case of WHO II anovulation: a study using the contingent valuation method

    PubMed Central

    Poder, Thomas G; He, Jie; Simard, Catherine; Pasquier, Jean-Charles

    2014-01-01

    Objective To measure the willingness to pay (WTP) of women aged 18–45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction (ie, the social value of normal cycles of ovulation for a woman of childbearing age) in order to feed the debate about the funding of fertility cares. Setting An anonymous questionnaire was used over the general population of Quebec. Participants A total of 136 subjects were recruited in three medical clinics, and 191 subjects through an online questionnaire. Method The questionnaire consisted of three parts: introduction to the problematic, socioeconomic data collection to determine factors influencing the formation of WTP, and a WTP question using the simple bid price dichotomous choice elicitation technique. The econometric estimation method is based on the “random utility theory.” Each subject responding to our questionnaire could express her uncertainty about the answer to our WTP question by choosing the answer “I do not know.” Outcome measure The WTP in Canadian dollars of women aged 18–45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction. Results Results are positive and indicate an average WTP exceeding 4,800 CAD, which is much more than the drug treatment cost. There is no evidence of sample frame bias or avidity bias across the two survey modes that cannot be controlled in econometric estimates. Conclusion Medical treatment for ovulation induction is highly socially desirable in Quebec. PMID:25328385

  10. The regional costs and benefits of acid rain control

    SciTech Connect

    Berkman, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    Congress recently enacted acid rain control legislation as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments following a decade-long debate among disparate regional interests. Although Congress succeeded in drafting a law acceptable to all regions, the regional costs and benefits of the legislation remain uncertain. The research presented here attempts to estimate the regional costs and benefits and the economic impacts of acid rain controls. These estimates are made using a modeling system composed of econometric, linear programming and input-output models. The econometric and linear programming components describe markets for electricity and coal. The outputs of these components including capital investment, electricity demand, and coal production are taken as exogenous inputs by a multiregional input-output model. The input-output model produces estimates of changes in final demand, gross output, and employment. The utility linear programming model also predicts sulfur dioxide emissions (an acid-rain precursor). According to model simulations, the costs of acid rain control exceed the benefits for many regions including several regions customarily thought to be the major beneficiaries of acid rain control such as New England.

  11. India's aluminum industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's aluminum sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. An analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector declined slightly by 0.2%. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's aluminum sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been labor saving. The decline in productivity was mainly driven by a decline in the 1970s when capacity utilization was low and the energy crisis hit India and the world. From the early 1980s on productivity recuperated. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian aluminum sector has high potential to move towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. Substantial energy savings and carbon reduction options exist.

  12. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H.; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W.

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  13. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country. PMID:24910313

  14. Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

    2009-02-01

    This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

  15. What roles do contemporaneous and cumulative incomes play in the income-child health gradient for young children? Evidence from an Australian panel.

    PubMed

    Khanam, Rasheda; Nghiem, Hong Son; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2014-08-01

    The literature to date shows that children from poorer households tend to have worse health than their peers, and the gap between them grows with age. We investigate whether and how health shocks (as measured by the onset of chronic conditions) contribute to the income-child health gradient and whether the contemporaneous or cumulative effects of income play important mitigating roles. We exploit a rich panel dataset with three panel waves called the Longitudinal Study of Australian children. Given the availability of three waves of data, we are able to apply a range of econometric techniques (e.g. fixed and random effects) to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The paper makes several contributions to the extant literature. First, it shows that an apparent income gradient becomes relatively attenuated in our dataset when the cumulative and contemporaneous effects of household income are distinguished econometrically. Second, it demonstrates that the income-child health gradient becomes statistically insignificant when controlling for parental health and health-related behaviours or unobserved heterogeneity. PMID:23780648

  16. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steward, David R.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Yang, Xiaoying; Bulatewicz, Tom; Herrera-Rodriguez, Mauricio; Mao, Dazhi; Hendricks, Nathan

    2009-05-01

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater wells and agricultural parcels is employed to couple these models using geographic information science technology and open modeling interface protocols. This approach is used to study the collective action problem of the common pool. Three different policies (existing, regulation, and incentive based) are studied in the semiarid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in the central United States. Results show that while regulation using the prior appropriation doctrine and incentives using a water buy-back program may each achieve the same level of water savings across the study region, each policy has a different impact on spatial patterns of groundwater declines and farm level economic activity. This represents the first time that groundwater and econometric models of irrigated agriculture have been integrated at the well-parcel level and provides methods for scientific investigation of this coupled natural-human system. Results are useful for science to inform decision making and public policy debate.

  17. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-08-11

    This report contains brief statements from the model managers about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models ''active'' through March 1987 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained support and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.

  18. Directory of Energy Information Administration Model Abstracts

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1986-07-16

    This directory partially fulfills the requirements of Section 8c, of the documentation order, which states in part that: The Office of Statistical Standards will annually publish an EIA document based on the collected abstracts and the appendices. This report contains brief statements about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models active through March 1985 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these proprietary models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.

  19. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  20. India's Fertilizer Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, K.; Sathaye, J.

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's fertilizer sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Our analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the fertilizer sector increased by 2.3% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's fertilizer sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been capital and labor saving. The increase in productivity took place during the era of total control when a retention price system and distribution control was in effect. With liberalization of the fertilizer sector and reduction of subsidies productivity declined substantially since the early 1990s. Industrial policies and fiscal incentives still play a major role in the Indian fertilizer sect or. As substantial energy savings and carbon reduction potential exists, energy policies can help overcome barriers to the adoption of these measures in giving proper incentives and correcting distorted prices.

  1. An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

    PubMed

    Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability. PMID:25034751

  2. India's cement industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's cement sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector increased by 0.8% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's cement sector has been biased towards the use of energy and capital, while it has been material and labor saving. The increase in productivity was mainly driven by a period of progress between 1983 and 1991 following partial decontrol of the cement sector in 1982. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian cement sector is moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. However, substantial further energy savings and carbon reduction potentials still exist.

  3. An investigation on the determinants of carbon emissions for OECD countries: empirical evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence.

    PubMed

    Dogan, Eyup; Seker, Fahri

    2016-07-01

    This empirical study analyzes the impacts of real income, energy consumption, financial development and trade openness on CO2 emissions for the OECD countries in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model by using panel econometric approaches that consider issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Results from the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran-Yamagata's homogeneity test, the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, the DSUR estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose Granger causality test indicate that (i) the panel time-series data are heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent; (ii) CO2 emissions, real income, the quadratic income, energy consumption, financial development and openness are integrated of order one; (iii) the analyzed data are cointegrated; (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for the OECD countries; (v) increases in openness and financial development mitigate the level of emissions whereas energy consumption contributes to carbon emissions; (vi) a variety of Granger causal relationship is detected among the analyzed variables; and (vii) empirical results and policy recommendations are accurate and efficient since panel econometric models used in this study account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in their estimation procedures. PMID:27072031

  4. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  5. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. PMID:26119330

  6. Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

    PubMed

    Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2016-02-01

    This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. PMID:25504934

  7. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate

  8. 'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

    2015-12-01

    This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. PMID:26344780

  9. The impact of energy prices on technology choice in the United States steel industry

    SciTech Connect

    Karlson, S.H. . Dept. of Economics); Boyd, G. )

    1991-01-01

    In the last thirty years US steel producers have replaced their aging open hearth steel furnaces with basic oxygen or large electric arc furnaces. This choice of technology leads to the opportunity to substitute electricity for fossil fuels as a heat source. We extend earlier research to investigate whether or not energy prices affect this type of technology adoption as predicted by economic theory. The econometric model uses the seemingly unrelated Tobit'' method to capture the effects of the industry's experience with both technologies, technical change, and potential cost reductions, as well as energy prices, on adoption. When we include the prices of electricity and coking coal as explanatory variables, the four energy price coefficients have the signs predicted by the law of demand. The two price coefficients have a statistically significant effect on adoption of basic oxygen furnaces. The inclusion of energy prices leads to significantly more efficient estimates of other coefficients in the model. 19 refs., 3 tabs.

  10. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    2016-01-01

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓr norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics. PMID:26806986

  11. Cost of reducing carbon emissions in developing countries: Evidence from Columbia. Staff working paper No. 9

    SciTech Connect

    Linden, G.

    1993-06-01

    The author discusses the issue of the cost of reducing CO2 emissions related to the energy sector and the implications for the structure of the energy sector in Colombia. While there have been a number of attempts to estimate the costs of CO2 reduction in various developed countries such as the United States, there appears to be a lack of similar studies for developing countries. The analysis is based on optimizations using a comprehensive mathematical programming model of Colombia's energy sector in conjunction with an econometric model of the sector. Section one outlines the empirical methods used to analyze the energy/environmental linkages in Colombia. Section two summarizes the simulated results.

  12. Increased reward value of non-social stimuli in children and adolescents with autism

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Karli K.; Miller, Stephanie; Hannah, Eleanor; Kovac, Megan; Damiano, Cara R.; Sabatino-DiCrisco, Antoinette; Turner-Brown, Lauren; Sasson, Noah J.; Platt, Michael L.; Dichter, Gabriel S.

    2015-01-01

    An econometric choice task was used to estimate the implicit reward value of social and non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in children and adolescents with (n = 12) and without (n = 22) autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Mixed effects logistic regression analyses revealed that groups differed in valuation of images related to restricted interests: control children were indifferent to cash payouts to view these images, but children with ASD were willing to receive less cash payout to view these images. Groups did not differ in valuation of social images or non-social images not related to restricted interests. Results highlight that motivational accounts of ASD should also consider the reward value of non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in ASD (Dichter and Adolphs, 2012). PMID:26257684

  13. How does social capital matter to the health status of older adults? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey.

    PubMed

    Liu, Gordon G; Xue, Xindong; Yu, Chenxi; Wang, Yafeng

    2016-09-01

    This paper uses longitudinal data from China to examine the causal relationship between structural social capital and health among Chinese older adults. We employ various econometric strategies to control for the potential endogeneity of social capital and account for the possible contextual confounding effects by including community-level social capital. We use three indicators to measure individuals' general, physical, and mental health. Results indicate that social capital has a significant and positive effect on general and physical health. Based on our primary IV findings, a one standard-deviation increase in social capital leads to a 4.9 standard-deviation decrease in the probability of having bad health and a 2.2 standard-deviation decrease in physical activity limitations. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. Further analysis suggests heterogeneous effects by age but not by gender or area of residence. PMID:27235837

  14. Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity

    PubMed Central

    Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

    2009-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

  15. World oil outlook. Hearings before the Committee on Energy and Natural Resources, United States Senate, One Hundredth Congress, First Session, January 22 and March 11, 1987

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1987-01-01

    Dr. James E. Akins, Ambassador to Saudi Arabia, James R. Schlesinger of the Georgetown Center for Strategic and International Studies, Dr. Daniel Dreyfus of the Gas Research Institute, Dr. Scott Jones of Chase Econometrics, Inc., and Dr. John H. Lichtblau of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation were the principal witnesses at a hearing held to review the potential for another oil crisis due to reduced domestic production and exploration and a diminished capability in both areas. Statements made by several senators reviewed the dangers of depending upon Middle East oil imports and the threat of an energy problem more serious than those of 1973 and 1979. Of primary concern was the need to retain a healthy domestic petroleum industry in the wake of fluctuating prices and restrengthening of OPEC as a cartel. Additional material submitted by Americans for Energy Independence follows the two-day testimony of the 16 witnesses.

  16. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  17. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  18. Model documention: Commercial Sector Energy Model. [CSEM

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-08-10

    The CSEM forecasts floorspace area and demand for natural gas, electricity and fuel oil for six building categories in four Census regions. Real disposable personal income, population and real fuel prices are the major exogenous drivers of these forecasts. The commercial model uses the coefficients from the three econometric submodules to calculate building floorspace, end-use fuel choices, and utilization (enegy use per square foot) for the three major fuels. Separately from these structural components the model also calculates energy use for the minor fuels liquefied petroleum gas, kerosene, coal and motor gasoline. Through the use of accounting equations, the commercial model combines the structural components to get total commercial energy use over the major fuels. It then adds in the minor fuels, passes the information back to the other models and writes reports.

  19. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-01

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  20. Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity.

    PubMed

    Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

    2009-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

  1. Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.

  2. Exports and Economic Growth in Saudi Arabia: A VAR Model Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alhajhoj, Hassan

    Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is a developing country and is rich in natural resources. The export sector plays an important role in the economic growth of a country. Basically, economic growth of a country depends on the nature and type of relationship between exports and domestic economic growth. Modern econometric techniques such as Vector Auto-Regression (VAR), Impulse Response Function (IFR) and the Granger-causality test were applied to determine long-term relationship between exports and domestic economic growth from 1970 to 2005. It was found that the export sector of Saudi Arabia caused a significant effect on the economic growth and a positive influence on other economic activities in the long run. Also, a long-term equilibrium existed among the various macroeconomic variables such as RGDP, RC, RG, RI, RX and RM considered in the study. It is apparent that a steady state condition can be reached between exports and economic growth in Saudi Arabia.

  3. National health expenditures: a global analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Murray, C. J.; Govindaraj, R.; Musgrove, P.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the background research to the World development report 1993: investing in health, an effort was made to estimate public, private and total expenditures on health for all countries of the world. Estimates could be found for public spending for most countries, but for private expenditure in many fewer countries. Regressions were used to predict the missing values of regional and global estimates. These econometric exercises were also used to relate expenditure to measures of health status. In 1990 the world spent an estimated US$ 1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10(12) on health, or $1.9 trillion (1.9 x 10(12)) in dollars adjusted for higher purchasing power in poorer countries. This amount was about 60% public and 40% private in origin. However, as incomes rise, public health expenditure tends to displace private spending and to account for the increasing share of incomes devoted to health. PMID:7923542

  4. Differential effects of negative publicity on beef consumption according to household characteristics in South Korea.

    PubMed

    Youn, Hyungho; Lim, Byung In; Jin, Hyun Joung

    2012-07-01

    This paper examines how South Korean households responded to an unprecedented boycott campaign against US beef from spring to summer of 2008, and investigates differential responses in relation to households' characteristics. It was found that beef consumption reduced by 4.8% immediately after the so-called candle-light demonstration. Instead, pork and chicken consumption increased by 17.2% and 16.6%, respectively. This confirms a substitution effect due to the negative publicity concerning US beef. It was also found that the negative publicity effect was transitory and the reactions of consumers were not uniform; they differed depending on their socio-economic characteristics. The econometric model revealed that younger, less-educated, and/or lower-income households were more susceptible to the negative publicity, and reduced their beef consumption more than other households. PMID:22482492

  5. The Pot Calling the Kettle Black? A Comparison of Measures of Current Tobacco Use

    PubMed Central

    ROSENMAN, ROBERT

    2014-01-01

    Researchers often use the discrepancy between self-reported and biochemically assessed active smoking status to argue that self-reported smoking status is not reliable, ignoring the limitations of biochemically assessed measures and treating it as the gold standard in their comparisons. Here, we employ econometric techniques to compare the accuracy of self-reported and biochemically assessed current tobacco use, taking into account measurement errors with both methods. Our approach allows estimating and comparing the sensitivity and specificity of each measure without directly observing true smoking status. The results, robust to several alternative specifications, suggest that there is no clear reason to think that one measure dominates the other in accuracy. PMID:25587199

  6. Economic Effects of Precipitation Enhancement in the Corn Belt.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gapcia, Philip; Changnon, Stanley; Pinar, Musa

    1990-01-01

    Policy formulation in weather modification requires an understanding of the economic effects from altered weather. The focus of this study is to provide insight into the beneficiaries of a functioning weather modification technology when applied at various spatial and temporal levels. An econometric model which links the corn/scybean production to U.S. cattle, hog and poultry sectors is used to determine the effects of precipitation enhancement in the U.S. Corn Belt, a humid climatic region. A regional supply formulation permits assessment of weather modification on production, prices, revenues to producers, and savings in consumers expenditures on meat. The results provide insight into the distribution of economic effects, emphasize the importance of careful planning in the use of weather modification technology, and provide useful information on the roles of local, state, and federal governments in the support of weather modification.

  7. Electricity generation modeling and photovoltaic forecasts in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shengnan

    With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979--2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

  8. `Been There Done That': Disentangling Option Value Effects from User Heterogeneity When Valuing Natural Resources with a Use Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2012-11-01

    Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

  9. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  10. Using artificial neural networks to forecast the futures prices of crude oil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khazem, Hassan A.

    Crude oil is the commodity de jour and its pricing is of paramount importance to the layperson as well as to any responsible government. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric pricing models is the forecasting accuracy. Historically, linear and non-linear time series models were used. Although, a great success was achieved in that regard, yet there were no definite and universal conclusions drawn. The crude oil forecasting field is still wide open for improvement, especially when applying different forecasting models and alternative techniques. Toward this end, the proposed research implemented Artificial Neural Network models (ANN). The models will forecast the daily crude oil futures prices from 1996 to 2006, listed in NYMEX. Due to the nonlinearity presented by the test results of the crude oil pricing, it is expected that the ANN models will improve forecasting accuracy. An evaluation of the outcomes of the forecasts among different models was done to authenticate that this is undeniably the situation.

  11. The Role of the Manufacturer in Air Transportation Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackenzie, J.

    1972-01-01

    The role of the aircraft manufacturer in the airline industry is considered. The process is illustrated by using a fictitious airline as an example--that is, a case study approach with Mid-Coast Airways serving as the example. Both in slide form and with supporting papers, a brief history of the airline, a description of its route structure and a forecast based on econometric analysis are presented. Once the forecast rationale is explained, information outlines the requirements for additional aircraft and the application of new aircraft across the system using alternative fleet plan options. The fleet plan is translated into financial summaries which indicate the relative merit of alternative aircraft types or operating plans.

  12. How Sustainable Is Government-Sponsored Desertification Rehabilitation in China? Behavior of Households to Changes in Environmental Policies

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Ning; Zhou, Lihua; Hauger, J. Scott

    2013-01-01

    This paper undertakes a direct, comprehensive assessment of the long-term sustainability of desertification rehabilitation in China under a plausible but worst case scenario where governmental interventions, in the form of payments for environmental services (PES), will cease. The analysis is based on household behavior as well as experimental data. Our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the sustainability of rehabilitation programs subsequent to cessation of government intervention, including specific shortfalls in households’ preference for a free ride, budget constraints, attitudes, tolerance of and responsibility for desertification, and dissatisfaction with governmental actions. We conclude that desertification rehabilitation is not sustainable in China without continued governmental intervention. The results of this study are intended to support policy makers as they consider future directions for rehabilitation sustainability. PMID:24204849

  13. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  14. Constructing 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erland, Sveinung; Greenwood, Priscilla E.

    2007-09-01

    This paper gives sufficient conditions for the output of 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains on finite state spaces. We construct several examples exhibiting this behavior in a specified range of frequencies. We apply simple representations of the covariance function and the spectral density in terms of the eigendecomposition of the probability transition matrix. The results extend to hidden Markov chains. We generalize the results for aggregations of AR1-processes of C. W. J. Granger [J. Econometrics 14, 227 (1980)]. Given the eigenvalue function, there is a variety of ways to assign values to the states such that the 1/ωα condition is satisfied. We show that a random walk on a certain state space is complementary to the point process model of 1/ω noise of B. Kaulakys and T. Meskauskas [Phys. Rev. E 58, 7013 (1998)]. Passing to a continuous state space, we construct 1/ωα noise which also has a long memory.

  15. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    SciTech Connect

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

  16. Cognitive functioning and the probability of falls among seniors in Havana, Cuba.

    PubMed

    Trujillo, Antonio J; Hyder, Adnan A; Steinhardt, Laura C

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (> or = 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available information to reduce the endogeneity problem of cognitive functioning and the individual probability of falling. Our findings suggest that memory scores and cognitive functioning impacts the probability of falling--even after controlling for demographics, socioeconomic status, existence of chronic non-communicable conditions, vision/ hearing capacity, and baseline health. Monitoring elderly with low cognitive functioning may be a cost-effective way to reduce the economic burden of falls. PMID:22010363

  17. Unequal Recovery? Federal Resource Distribution after a Midwest Flood Disaster

    PubMed Central

    Muñoz, Cristina E.; Tate, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Following severe flooding in 2008, three Iowa communities acquired over 1000 damaged properties to support disaster recovery and mitigation. This research applies a distributive justice framework to analyze the distribution of disaster recovery funds for property acquisition. Two research questions drive the analysis: (1) how does recovery vary by acquisition funding source; and (2) what is the relationship between recovery and vulnerable populations? Through spatial econometric modeling, relative recovery is compared between two federal programs that funded the acquisitions, and across socially vulnerable populations. The results indicate both distributive and temporal inequalities in the allocation of federal recovery funds. In particular, Latino and elderly populations were associated with lower recovery rates. Recommendations for future research in flood recovery and acquisitions are provided. PMID:27196921

  18. Consumer Choice of E85 Denatured Ethanol Fuel Blend: Price Sensitivity and Cost of Limited Fuel Availability

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David

    2014-12-01

    The promotion of greater use of E85, a fuel blend of 85% denatured ethanol, by flex-fuel vehicle owners is an important means of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard 2. A good understanding of factors affecting E85 demand is necessary for effective policies that promote E85 and for developing models that forecast E85 sales in the United States. In this paper, the sensitivity of aggregate E85 demand to E85 and gasoline prices is estimated, as is the relative availability of E85 versus gasoline. The econometric analysis uses recent data from Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa. The more recent data allowmore » a better estimate of nonfleet demand and indicate that the market price elasticity of E85 choice is substantially higher than previously estimated.« less

  19. Quantifying Availability in SCADA Environments Using the Cyber Security Metric MFC

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Rabai, Latifa Ben Arfa; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are distributed networks dispersed over large geographic areas that aim to monitor and control industrial processes from remote areas and/or a centralized location. They are used in the management of critical infrastructures such as electric power generation, transmission and distribution, water and sewage, manufacturing/industrial manufacturing as well as oil and gas production. The availability of SCADA systems is tantamount to assuring safety, security and profitability. SCADA systems are the backbone of the national cyber-physical critical infrastructure. Herein, we explore the definition and quantification of an econometric measure of availability, as it applies to SCADA systems; our metric is a specialization of the generic measure of mean failure cost.

  20. A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

    2006-04-01

    The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

  1. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  2. Migration and fishing in Indonesian coastal villages.

    PubMed

    Kramer, Randall A; Simanjuntak, Sahat M H; Liese, Christopher

    2002-06-01

    The coastal ecosystems in Southeast Asia are under increased pressure from local and global change. This paper examines human migration and the use of marine resources in coastal villages in the Minahasa district of North Sulawesi, Indonesia. Primary data were collected through interviews with village leaders, focus groups, and a sample survey of 600 fishing households. Migration is responsible for at least one quarter of the total growth during the past decade. All groups of fishermen report falling productivity of the nearshore fisheries. Econometric analysis is used to examine the weekly fish catch of the artisanal fishing sector. Migration status and socioeconomic variables seem to have no systematic effect, while fishing effort (labor, boat, and gear), the degree of specialization, and the remoteness of villages are found to be positively related to weekly fish catches. PMID:12174608

  3. MEDISE: A macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica

    SciTech Connect

    Booth, S.R. ); Leiva, C.L. . Direccion Sectorial de Energia)

    1991-08-01

    This report describes the development and results of MEDISE, an econometric macroeconomic model for energy planning in Costa Rica. The model is a simultaneous system of 19 equations that was constructed using ENERPLAN, an energy planning tool developed by the United Nations for use in developing countries. The equations were estimated using regression analysis on a data time series of 1966 to 1984. ENERPLAN's model solution package was used to obtain forecasts of 19 economic variables from 1985 to 2005. the modeling effort was conducted jointly by Los Alamos Central American Energy and Resources Project (CAP) personnel and the Energy Sector Directorate of Costa Rica during 1986. The CAP was funded by the US Agency for International Development. 6 refs., 3 figs., 11 tabs.

  4. Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Susmita; Hossain, Md Moqbul; Huq, Mainul; Wheeler, David

    2015-12-01

    This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher. PMID:26152508

  5. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  6. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    SciTech Connect

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  7. Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, A. C.; Kochanowski, P.

    1976-01-01

    Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

  8. A spatiotemporal analysis of aggregate labour force behaviour by sex and age across the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2008-06-01

    This study investigates the causes of variation in age-specific male and female labour force participation rates using annual data from 154 regions across ten European Union member states for the period 1983-1997. Regional participation rates appear to be strongly correlated in time, weakly correlated in space and to parallel their national counterparts. An econometric model is designed consistent with these empirical findings. To control for potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables, we use an instrumental variables estimation scheme based on a matrix exponential spatial specification of the error terms. Many empirical studies of aggregate labour force behaviour have ignored population distribution effects, relying instead on the representative-agent paradigm. In order for representative-agent models to accurately describe aggregate behaviour, all marginal reactions of individuals to changes in aggregate variables must be identical. It turns out that this condition cannot apply to individuals across different sex/age groups.

  9. Unequal Recovery? Federal Resource Distribution after a Midwest Flood Disaster.

    PubMed

    Muñoz, Cristina E; Tate, Eric

    2016-01-01

    Following severe flooding in 2008, three Iowa communities acquired over 1000 damaged properties to support disaster recovery and mitigation. This research applies a distributive justice framework to analyze the distribution of disaster recovery funds for property acquisition. Two research questions drive the analysis: (1) how does recovery vary by acquisition funding source; and (2) what is the relationship between recovery and vulnerable populations? Through spatial econometric modeling, relative recovery is compared between two federal programs that funded the acquisitions, and across socially vulnerable populations. The results indicate both distributive and temporal inequalities in the allocation of federal recovery funds. In particular, Latino and elderly populations were associated with lower recovery rates. Recommendations for future research in flood recovery and acquisitions are provided. PMID:27196921

  10. Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

    2012-09-28

    Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense. PMID:23030125

  11. Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model.

    PubMed

    López Nicolás, Angel; Vera-Hernández, Marcos

    2008-09-01

    This paper develops an empirical strategy to estimate whether subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing in countries where public and private insurance coexist and the latter covers the same treatments as the former. We construct a simulation routine based on a micro-econometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services. As an application, we estimate the budgetary effects of scrapping a subsidy from the purchase of individual private policies, using micro-data from Catalonia. Our results suggest that the subsidy is not self-financing. This result is driven by the fact that private medical insurance holders make concurrent use of public and private services, and by the price inelasticity of the demand for private policies. PMID:18692262

  12. New constraints in absorptive capacity and the optimum rate of petroleum output

    SciTech Connect

    El Mallakh, R

    1980-01-01

    Economic policy in four oil-producing countries is analyzed within a framework that combines a qualitative assessment of the policy-making process with an empirical formulation based on historical and current trends in these countries. The concept of absorptive capacity is used to analyze the optimum rates of petroleum production in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. A control solution with an econometric model is developed which is then modified for alternative development strategies based on analysis of factors influencing production decisions. The study shows the consistencies and inconsistencies between the goals of economic growth, oil production, and exports, and the constraints on economic development. Simulation experiments incorporated a number of the constraints on absorptive capacity. Impact of other constraints such as income distribution and political stability is considered qualitatively. (DLC)

  13. The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xuan; Guo, Kun; Lu, Xiaolin

    2016-07-01

    The behavior information of financial market plays a more and more important role in modern economic system. The behavior information reflected in INTERNET search data has already been used in short-term prediction for exchange rate, stock market return, house price and so on. However, the long-run relationship between behavior information and financial market fluctuation has not been studied systematically. Further, most traditional statistic methods and econometric models could not catch the dynamic and non-linear relationship. An attention index of CNY/USD exchange rate is constructed based on search data from 360 search engine of China in this paper. Then the DCCA and Thermal Optimal Path methods are used to explore the long-run dynamic relationship between CNY/USD exchange rate and the corresponding attention index. The results show that the significant interdependency exists and the change of exchange rate is 1-2 days lag behind the attention index.

  14. Non performing loans (NPLs) in a crisis economy: Long-run equilibrium analysis with a real time VEC model for Greece (2001-2015)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantakis, Konstantinos N.; Michaelides, Panayotis G.; Vouldis, Angelos T.

    2016-06-01

    As a result of domestic and international factors, the Greek economy faced a severe crisis which is directly comparable only to the Great Recession. In this context, a prominent victim of this situation was the country's banking system. This paper attempts to shed light on the determining factors of non-performing loans in the Greek banking sector. The analysis presents empirical evidence from the Greek economy, using aggregate data on a quarterly basis, in the time period 2001-2015, fully capturing the recent recession. In this work, we use a relevant econometric framework based on a real time Vector Autoregressive (VAR)-Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, which captures the dynamic interdependencies among the variables used. Consistent with international evidence, the empirical findings show that both macroeconomic and financial factors have a significant impact on non-performing loans in the country. Meanwhile, the deteriorating credit quality feeds back into the economy leading to a self-reinforcing negative loop.

  15. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  16. 'Been there done that': disentangling option value effects from user heterogeneity when valuing natural resources with a use component.

    PubMed

    Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2012-11-01

    Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada). PMID:22968477

  17. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  18. An autoregressive growth model for longitudinal item analysis.

    PubMed

    Jeon, Minjeong; Rabe-Hesketh, Sophia

    2016-09-01

    A first-order autoregressive growth model is proposed for longitudinal binary item analysis where responses to the same items are conditionally dependent across time given the latent traits. Specifically, the item response probability for a given item at a given time depends on the latent trait as well as the response to the same item at the previous time, or the lagged response. An initial conditions problem arises because there is no lagged response at the initial time period. We handle this problem by adapting solutions proposed for dynamic models in panel data econometrics. Asymptotic and finite sample power for the autoregressive parameters are investigated. The consequences of ignoring local dependence and the initial conditions problem are also examined for data simulated from a first-order autoregressive growth model. The proposed methods are applied to longitudinal data on Korean students' self-esteem. PMID:26645083

  19. Social comparison and subjective well-being: does the health of others matter?

    PubMed

    Carrieri, Vincenzo

    2012-01-01

    The importance of social comparison in shaping individual utility has been widely documented by subjective well-being literature. So far, income and unemployment have been the main dimensions considered in social comparison. This paper aims to investigate whether subjective well-being is influenced by inter-personal comparison with respect to health. Thus, we study the effects of the health of others and relative health hypotheses on two measures of subjective well-being: happiness and subjective health. Using data from the Italian Health Conditions survey, we show that a high incidence of chronic conditions and disability among reference groups negatively affects both happiness and subjective health. Such effects are stronger among people in the same condition. These results, robust to different econometric specifications and estimation techniques, suggest the presence of some sympathy in individual preferences with respect to health and reveal that other people's health status serves as a benchmark to assess one's own health condition. PMID:22299192

  20. ECONOMICS OF INDIVIDUALIZATION IN COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVENESS RESEARCH AND A BASIS FOR A PATIENT-CENTERED HEALTH CARE

    PubMed Central

    Basu, Anirban

    2011-01-01

    The United States aspires to use information from comparative effectiveness research (CER) to reduce waste and contain costs without instituting a formal rationing mechanism or compromising patient or physician autonomy with regard to treatment choices. With such ambitious goals, traditional combinations of research designs and analytical methods used in CER may lead to disappointing results. In this paper, I study how alternate regimes of comparative effectiveness information help shape the marginal benefits (demand) curve in the population and how such perceived demand curves impact decision-making at the individual patient level and welfare at the societal level. I highlight the need to individualize comparative effectiveness research in order to generate the true (normative) demand curve for treatments. I discuss methodological principles that guide research designs for such studies. Using an example of the comparative effect of substance abuse treatments on crime, I use novel econometric methods to salvage individualized information from an existing dataset. PMID:21601299

  1. The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, D. B.

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.

  2. Channels of synthesis forty years on: integrated analysis of spatial economic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hewings, Geoffrey J. D.; Nazara, Suahasil; Dridi, Chokri

    . Isard's vision of integrated modeling that was laid out in the 1960s book Methods of Regional Science provided a road map for the development of more sophisticated analysis of spatial economic systems. Some forty years later, we look back at this vision and trace developments in a sample of three areas - demographic-econometric integrated modeling, spatial interaction modeling, and environmental-economic modeling. Attention will be focused on methodological advances and their motivation by new developments in theory as well as innovations in the applications of these models to address new policy challenges. Underlying the discussion will be an evaluation of the way in which spatial issues have been addressed, ranging from concerns with regionalization to issues of spillovers and spatial correlation.

  3. Properties of Zero-Free Transfer Function Matrices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D. O. Anderson, Brian; Deistler, Manfred

    Transfer functions of linear, time-invariant finite-dimensional systems with more outputs than inputs, as arise in factor analysis (for example in econometrics), have, for state-variable descriptions with generic entries in the relevant matrices, no finite zeros. This paper gives a number of characterizations of such systems (and indeed square discrete-time systems with no zeros), using state-variable, impulse response, and matrix-fraction descriptions. Key properties include the ability to recover the input values at any time from a bounded interval of output values, without any knowledge of an initial state, and an ability to verify the no-zero property in terms of a property of the impulse response coefficient matrices. Results are particularized to cases where the transfer function matrix in question may or may not have a zero at infinity or a zero at zero.

  4. Methodology for Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. This paper proposes a Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) that provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings.

  5. A joint model of household space heat production and consumption: Empirical evidence from a Belgian micro-data survey

    SciTech Connect

    Cuijpers, C.

    1995-12-31

    Households are faced with increasing regulation to improve energy conservation and energy efficiency for environmental concerns. Understanding how a house produces space heat and how energy consumption can be reduced becomes a keystone in designing energy and environmental policies. This paper provides empirical evidence on household behavior in the context of house heating. A joint household space heat production and consumption model is developed and empirically implemented. Attention is devoted mainly to the intermediate role of the characteristics of the house, with special reference to insulation levels, which determine the ability of the house to convert energy into heat levels. House heat levels are characterized and empirical support for the so-called {open_quote}rebound{close_quote} effects are shown. The econometric model is specified for a single period cross-section regression estimation, The database is drawn from the 1987-88 Belgian Household Expenditure Survey.

  6. Fuel economy rebound effect of U.S. household vehicles

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.R.; Gibson, R.C.

    1999-07-01

    This paper presents an econometric estimation of the rebound effect for household vehicle travel in the US based on analysis of survey data collected by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect measures the tendency to take back potential energy savings from fuel economy improvements as increased travel. Vehicle use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results confirm recent estimates based on national or state-level data: a long-run take back of about 20% of potential energy savings. Consumer responses to changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon appear to be equal and opposite in sign. Recognizing the interdependencies among miles of travel, fuel economy and price is key to obtaining meaningful results.

  7. Modeling of gold production in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Muda, Nora; Ainuddeen, Nasihah Rasyiqah; Ismail, Hamizun; Umor, Mohd Rozi

    2013-04-01

    This study was conducted to identify the main factors that contribute to the gold production and hence determine the factors that affect to the development of the mining industry in Malaysia. An econometric approach was used by performing the cointegration analysis among the factors to determine the existence of long term relationship between the gold prices, the number of gold mines, the number of workers in gold mines and the gold production. The study continued with the Granger analysis to determine the relationship between factors and gold production. Results have found that there are long term relationship between price, gold production and number of employees. Granger causality analysis shows that there is only one way relationship between the number of employees with gold production in Malaysia and the number of gold mines in Malaysia.

  8. Synopsis of Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission Value

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with the goal of improved enterprise and business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative work styles, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper summarizes the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural underpinnings.

  9. Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrmann, K.

    2009-11-01

    Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

  10. Using directed information for influence discovery in interconnected dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O.; States, David J.; Engel, James Douglas

    2008-08-01

    Structure discovery in non-linear dynamical systems is an important and challenging problem that arises in various applications such as computational neuroscience, econometrics, and biological network discovery. Each of these systems have multiple interacting variables and the key problem is the inference of the underlying structure of the systems (which variables are connected to which others) based on the output observations (such as multiple time trajectories of the variables). Since such applications demand the inference of directed relationships among variables in these non-linear systems, current methods that have a linear assumption on structure or yield undirected variable dependencies are insufficient. Hence, in this work, we present a methodology for structure discovery using an information-theoretic metric called directed time information (DTI). Using both synthetic dynamical systems as well as true biological datasets (kidney development and T-cell data), we demonstrate the utility of DTI in such problems.

  11. Long-term U. S. energy outlook

    SciTech Connect

    Friesen, G.

    1984-01-01

    Each year Chase Econometrics offers its clients a brief summary of the assumptions underlying the long-term energy forecast for the U.S. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they choose to compare forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the Department of Energy's Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Particular emphasis is placed on Scenario B, which is the mid-range reference case. As the introduction to the supplement emphasizes, the NEPP projections should not be considered a statement of the policy goals of the Reagan Administration. They represent an analysis of the possible evolution of U.S. energy markets, given current information and existing policies. The purpose of providing Scenario B as a reference case as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand.

  12. Approaches to nonlinear cointegration with a view towards applications in SHM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cross, E. J.; Worden, K.

    2011-07-01

    One of the major problems confronting the application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) to real structures is that of divorcing the effect of environmental changes from those imposed by damage. A recent development in this area is the import of the technique of cointegration from the field of econometrics. While cointegration is a mature technology within economics, its development has been largely concerned with linear time-series analysis and this places a severe constraint on its application - particularly in the new context of SHM where damage can often make a given structure nonlinear. The objective of the current paper is to introduce two possible approaches to nonlinear cointegration: the first is an optimisation-based method; the second is a variation of the established Johansen procedure based on the use of an augmented basis. Finally, the ideas of nonlinear cointegration will be explored through application to real SHM data from the benchmark project on the Z24 Highway Bridge.

  13. FBST for Cointegration Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Diniz, M.; Pereira, C. A. B.; Stern, J. M.

    2008-11-01

    In order to estimate causal relations, the time series econometrics has to be aware of spurious correlation, a problem first mentioned by Yule [21]. To solve the problem, one can work with differenced series or use multivariate models like VAR or VEC models. In this case, the analysed series are going to present a long run relation i.e. a cointegration relation. Even though the Bayesian literature about inference on VAR/VEC models is quite advanced, Bauwens et al. [2] highlight that "the topic of selecting the cointegrating rank has not yet given very useful and convincing results." This paper presents the Full Bayesian Significance Test applied to cointegration rank selection tests in multivariate (VAR/VEC) time series models and shows how to implement it using available in the literature and simulated data sets. A standard non-informative prior is assumed.

  14. Cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, Dustin Y.; Todd, Michael D.

    2012-04-01

    The structural health monitoring literature has shown an abundance of features sensitive to various types of damage in laboratory tests. However, robust feature extraction in the presence of varying operational and environmental conditions has proven to be one of the largest obstacles in the development of practical structural health monitoring systems. Cointegration, a technique adapted from the field of econometrics, has recently been introduced to the SHM field as one solution to the data normalization problem. Response measurements and feature histories often show long-run nonstationarity due to fluctuating temperature, load conditions, or other factors that leads to the occurrence of false positives. Cointegration theory allows nonstationary trends common to two or more time series to be modeled and subsequently removed. Thus, the residual retains sensitivity to damage with dependence on operational and environmental variability removed. This study further explores the use of cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications.

  15. Lévy walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaburdaev, V.; Denisov, S.; Klafter, J.

    2015-04-01

    Random walk is a fundamental concept with applications ranging from quantum physics to econometrics. Remarkably, one specific model of random walks appears to be ubiquitous across many fields as a tool to analyze transport phenomena in which the dispersal process is faster than dictated by Brownian diffusion. The Lévy-walk model combines two key features, the ability to generate anomalously fast diffusion and a finite velocity of a random walker. Recent results in optics, Hamiltonian chaos, cold atom dynamics, biophysics, and behavioral science demonstrate that this particular type of random walk provides significant insight into complex transport phenomena. This review gives a self-consistent introduction to Lévy walks, surveys their existing applications, including latest advances, and outlines further perspectives.

  16. Models for forecasting energy use in the US farm sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, L. R.

    1981-07-01

    Econometric models were developed and estimated for the purpose of forecasting electricity and petroleum demand in US agriculture. A structural approach is pursued which takes account of the fact that the quantity demanded of any one input is a decision made in conjunction with other input decisions. Three different functional forms of varying degrees of complexity are specified for the structural cost function, which describes the cost of production as a function of the level of output and factor prices. Demand for materials (all purchased inputs) is derived from these models. A separate model which break this demand up into demand for the four components of materials is used to produce forecasts of electricity and petroleum is a stepwise manner.

  17. Investigating the effects of ICT on innovation and performance of European hospitals: an exploratory study.

    PubMed

    Arvanitis, Spyros; Loukis, Euripidis N

    2016-05-01

    Hospitals are making big investments in various types of ICT, so it is important to investigate their effects on innovation and performance. This paper presents an empirical study in this direction, based on data for 743 hospitals from 18 European countries. We specified and estimated econometrically five equations: one for product innovation, one for process innovation and three equations for the three different dimensions of (ICT-enabled) hospital performance. All five equations included various ICT-related variables reflecting ICT infrastructure and a series of important ICT applications, some of them hospital-specific, and some others of general business use, and also ICT personnel (viewed as a kind of 'soft' ICT investment), while the performance equations also included the two innovation measures. PMID:25822165

  18. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  19. Impact of energy and environmental legislation on industry: problems of regulatory cost assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, P; Brown, S

    1980-01-01

    An examination is made of some of the problems of environmental impact assessment in the industrial sector, with particular attention to some important methodological problems frequently ignored. Some general problems of impact analysis are addressed in Section 2. This is followed in Section 3 by an overview of these major issues: the level of import substitutions, capital expenditures on pollution control, and a brief examination at how the industrial sector responded to post embargo energy price changes. Section 4 investigates marketplace responses to changes in manufacturing costs induced by regulatory requirements, from a general, theoretical microeconomics perspective. How industry responses can be estimated quantitatively for practical assessment purposes is taken up in Section 5, with a focus on the advantages and limitations of the two major modeling approaches (econometric and process models). These models allow investigations of the effects of different policies. (MCW)

  20. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  1. Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability. This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.

  2. Diffusion on social networks: Survey data from rural villages in central China

    PubMed Central

    Xiong, Hang; Wang, Puqing; Zhu, Yueji

    2016-01-01

    Empirical studies on social diffusions are often restricted by the access to data of diffusion and social relations on the same objects. We present a set of first-hand data that we collected in ten rural villages in central China through household surveys. The dataset contains detailed and comprehensive data of the diffusion of an innovation, the major social relationships and the household level demographic characteristics in these villages. The data have been used to study peer effects in social diffusion using simulation models, “Peer Effects and Social Network: The Case of Rural Diffusion in Central China” [1]. They can also be used to estimate spatial econometric models. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:27054157

  3. Effects of land use change on soil carbon cycling in the conterminous United States from 1900 to 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Woodbury, Peter B.; Heath, Linda S.; Smith, James E.

    2007-09-01

    We developed matrices representing historical area transitions between forest and other land uses. We projected future transitions on the basis of historical transitions and econometric model results. These matrices were used to drive a model of changes in soil and forest floor carbon stocks. Our model predicted net carbon emission from 1900 until 1982, then sequestration until 2030, with little subsequent change. However, the northeast region showed substantial carbon sequestration from 1900 to the present. From 1990 to 2004, afforestation caused sequestration averaging 17 Tg C yr-1: 6 Tg C yr-1 in soil and 11 Tg C yr-1 in forest floor. Deforestation caused emission averaging 12 Tg C yr-1: 3 Tg C yr-1 from soil and 9 Tg C yr-1 from forest floor. However, these effects were only 5% of the total change in carbon stocks in all forestland.

  4. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  5. Toward a more universal approach in health valuation.

    PubMed

    Craig, Benjamin M; Busschbach, Jan J V

    2011-07-01

    By polling individual responses to hypothetical scenarios, valuation studies estimate population preferences toward health on a quality-adjusted life year (QALY) scale. The scenarios typically involve trade-offs in time (time trade-off (TTO)), risk (standard gamble (SG)), or number of persons affected (person trade-off (PTO)). This paper revisits the QALY assumptions and provides a coherent health econometric approach that unites TTO, SG, and PTO techniques under a common estimator. The proposed approach avoids the use of ratio statistics in QALY estimation and the common convention of arbitrarily changing trade-off responses. As an example, 34% of the TTO responses from the seminal Measurement and Valuation of Health study were changed in the original UK analysis, which led to substantially lower QALY estimates. As a general rule, if the original estimate is less than 0.5 QALYs, add 0.25 QALYs to get the new estimates. PMID:20677328

  6. Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

  7. Business establishment mobility behavior in urban areas: a microanalytical model for the City of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maoh, Hanna; Kanaroglou, Pavlos

    2007-09-01

    We present a microanalytical firm mobility model for the City of Hamilton, Canada, developed with data from the Statistics Canada Business Register. Contributing to the scarce literature on firm migration behavior, we explore and model the determinants of mobility among small and medium size firms who retained less than 200 employees between 1996 and 1997. Our exploratory results suggest that short distance moves are more common and tend to occur among smaller firms. Econometric modeling results support these assertions and indicate that the willingness to move can be explained by a firm’s internal characteristics (e.g. age, size, growth and industry type) as well as location factors related to the urban environment where the firm is located. The modeling results will serve as input for the development of an agent-based firmographic decision support system that can be used to inform the planning process in the study area.

  8. Exploring the disparities of regional health care expenditures in Switzerland: some empirical evidence.

    PubMed

    Reich, Oliver; Weins, Cornelia; Schusterschitz, Claudia; Thöni, Magdalena

    2012-04-01

    This study investigates the determinants of regional variations in health care expenditures (HCE) in Switzerland, since there are significant differences between cantons per capita HCE. The empirical analysis contributes to the discussion on the outcome of federalism in the Swiss health care system by improving the understanding of the determinants of the differences in HCE. Our econometric estimations indicate that HCE are significantly related to the density of specialist physicians, density of dispensing doctors, per capita income, proportion of managed care, medical and technological progress and socio-economic factors. Due to the presumptive importance of the organisation of ambulatory care, we suggest policy makers should particularly concentrate on promoting the supply of managed care models in Switzerland. Supporting the development of managed care may help to countervail some of the influences which tend to lead to higher cantonal health expenditures. PMID:21290253

  9. Constructing 1/omegaalpha noise from reversible Markov chains.

    PubMed

    Erland, Sveinung; Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2007-09-01

    This paper gives sufficient conditions for the output of 1/omegaalpha noise from reversible Markov chains on finite state spaces. We construct several examples exhibiting this behavior in a specified range of frequencies. We apply simple representations of the covariance function and the spectral density in terms of the eigendecomposition of the probability transition matrix. The results extend to hidden Markov chains. We generalize the results for aggregations of AR1-processes of C. W. J. Granger [J. Econometrics 14, 227 (1980)]. Given the eigenvalue function, there is a variety of ways to assign values to the states such that the 1/omegaalpha condition is satisfied. We show that a random walk on a certain state space is complementary to the point process model of 1/omega noise of B. Kaulakys and T. Meskauskas [Phys. Rev. E 58, 7013 (1998)]. Passing to a continuous state space, we construct 1/omegaalpha noise which also has a long memory. PMID:17930206

  10. Albemarle–Pamlico Sounds revealed and stated preference data

    PubMed Central

    Whitehead, John C.

    2015-01-01

    In this article we describe the contingent valuation and behavior methods scenario developed in the 1995 Albemarle–Pamlico Sounds Survey. The survey elicits revealed and stated preference recreation behavior data which are used to estimate the value of water quality improvements [4,8]. The survey elicits willingness to pay data which are used to conduct a split-sample scope test [7]. The data are used to jointly estimate revealed and stated preference recreation and willingness to pay data [2,6]. The data has been, and can continue to be, used to investigate econometric specification [3], bid design and other nonmarket valuation issues. The data have been used as illustrations and examples in three books that develop nonmarket valuation methods [1,5,9]. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:26217724

  11. The relation between global migration and trade networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sgrignoli, Paolo; Metulini, Rodolfo; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

  12. MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

    2013-10-01

    How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

  13. Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

  14. Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

    PubMed

    Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

    2014-01-01

    Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

  15. Behavioral economics and health policy: understanding Medicaid's failure.

    PubMed

    Richman, Barak D

    2005-03-01

    This Article employs a behavioral economic analysis to understand why Medicaid has failed to improve the health outcomes of its beneficiaries. It begins with a formal economic model of health care consumption and then systematically incorporates a survey of psychosocial variables to formulate explanations for persistent health disparities. This methodology suggests that consulting the literature in health psychology and intertemporal decision theory--empirical sources generally excluded from orthodox economic analysis--provides valuable material to explain certain findings in health econometrics. More significantly, the lessons from this behavioral economic approach generate useful policy considerations for Medicaid policymakers, who largely have neglected psychosocial variables in implementing a health insurance program that rests chiefly on orthodox economic assumptions. The Article's chief contributions include an expansion of the behavioral economic approach to include a host of variables in health psychology, a behavioral refinement of empirical health economics, a behavioral critique of Medicaid policy, and a menu of suggested Medicaid reforms. PMID:15868692

  16. Transfer Entropy as a Log-Likelihood Ratio

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

    2012-09-01

    Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic χ2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense.

  17. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

  18. Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

    2005-09-01

    The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking. PMID:16167558

  19. Economics of individualization in comparative effectiveness research and a basis for a patient-centered health care.

    PubMed

    Basu, Anirban

    2011-05-01

    The United States aspires to use information from comparative effectiveness research (CER) to reduce waste and contain costs without instituting a formal rationing mechanism or compromising patient or physician autonomy with regard to treatment choices. With such ambitious goals, traditional combinations of research designs and analytical methods used in CER may lead to disappointing results. In this paper, I study how alternate regimes of comparative effectiveness information help shape the marginal benefits (demand) curve in the population and how such perceived demand curves impact decision-making at the individual patient level and welfare at the societal level. I highlight the need to individualize comparative effectiveness research in order to generate the true (normative) demand curve for treatments. I discuss methodological principles that guide research designs for such studies. Using an example of the comparative effect of substance abuse treatments on crime, I use novel econometric methods to salvage individualized information from an existing dataset. PMID:21601299

  20. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W. Philip T.; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15–49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  1. Diffusion on social networks: Survey data from rural villages in central China.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Hang; Wang, Puqing; Zhu, Yueji

    2016-06-01

    Empirical studies on social diffusions are often restricted by the access to data of diffusion and social relations on the same objects. We present a set of first-hand data that we collected in ten rural villages in central China through household surveys. The dataset contains detailed and comprehensive data of the diffusion of an innovation, the major social relationships and the household level demographic characteristics in these villages. The data have been used to study peer effects in social diffusion using simulation models, "Peer Effects and Social Network: The Case of Rural Diffusion in Central China" [1]. They can also be used to estimate spatial econometric models. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:27054157

  2. Physician-induced demand for surgery.

    PubMed

    Cromwell, J; Mitchell, J B

    1986-12-01

    Following up the earlier findings by Fuchs on surgeon-induced demand, this paper makes numerous data and econometric improvements in conducting a test of neoclassical and inducement theories. A simultaneous equation model is used to estimate physician demand and equilibrium fees for surgery from a sample of 350 PSUs over the 1969-76 period. The results provide definite support for the notion of competitive market failure--particularly in large metropolitan areas. Other things equal, fees and utilization are higher in surgeon-rich areas although our estimated shift elasticities were only about one-third those found by Fuchs. A statistically significant, albeit small price elasticity of demand for surgery was also obtained, in contrast to Fuchs. Increasing monopoly and disequilibrium models are also tested without altering the basic findings. Where surgeons were in short supply, their availability significantly affected surgery rates, although a small supply effect was found in plentiful areas as well. PMID:10317903

  3. Price and income elasticities of demand for alcoholic beverages.

    PubMed

    Ornstein, S I; Levy, D

    1983-01-01

    Estimating the demand for alcoholic beverages represents a difficult statistical problem. A number of studies have attempted to estimate the demand for beer, wine, distilled spirits, or total alcohol consumption. The results vary widely according to country of study, data used, and model and statistical technique. For the United States, most studies find the demand for beer to be relatively price inelastic, at around -0.3. The demand for distilled spirits appears to be unitary price elasticity or somewhat greater, around -1.5. The evidence on wine is too sketchy to draw any conclusions. There is no strong evidence of substitutability among beer, wine, and distilled spirits based on econometric models, nor evidence that advertising plays a strong role in the aggregate demand for beer, wine, or distilled spirits. The main policy implication is that price increases to control consumption will have a stronger impact on the consumption of distilled spirits than on beer. PMID:6390555

  4. Effects of urban growth controls on intercity commuting.

    PubMed

    Ogura, Laudo M

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical study of the effects of urban growth controls on the intercity commuting of workers. Growth controls (land use regulations that attempt to restrict population growth and urban sprawl) have increased housing prices and diverted population growth to uncontrolled cities. It has been suggested that resulting changes in local labour supply might stimulate intercity commuting from uncontrolled to controlled cities. To test this hypothesis, a gravity model of commuting flows between places in California is estimated using alternative econometric methods (OLS, Heckman selection and count-data). The possibility of spatial dependence in commuting flows is also taken into consideration. Results suggest larger commuting flows to destination places that restrict residential growth. PMID:20722227

  5. Potential niche markets for biodiesel and their effects on agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Raneses, A.R.; Glaser, L.K.; Price, J.M.

    1996-12-31

    This analysis estimates possible biodiesel demand in three niche markets the biodiesel industry has identified as likely candidates for commercialization: federal fleets, mining, and marine/estuary areas. If a 20-percent biodiesel blend becomes a competitive alternative fuel in the coming years, these markets could demand as much as 379 million liters (100 million gallons) of biodiesel. The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture, was used to estimate the impacts of 76, 193, and 379 million liters (20, 50, and 100 million gallons) of soybean-oil-based biodiesel production on the agricultural sector. The results indicate the effect of increased soybean oil demand on the soybean complex (beans, oil, and meal) and U.S. farm income would be small, but livestock producers and consumers could benefit from low meat prices.

  6. Perspectives on potential agricultural and budgetary impacts from an increased use of ethanol fuels

    SciTech Connect

    England-Joseph, J.

    1990-02-01

    GAO testified on its use of an econometric model to assess the affects of expanded ethanol production in this country. This report discusses its conclusion: that expanded use of fuels would financially benefits some sectors of agriculture, increase consumer foods costs, decrease federal farm program outlays, and reduce federal motor fuel tax revenues. GAO's study was not designed to reach a conclusion on whether to extend the ethanol fuel tax exemption or the blenders income tax credit, and GAO does not take a position on these matters. GAO does believe, however, that other factors not addressed in its study, including important environmental, energy security, and economic growth consequences attributable to the use of ethanol as a fuel or a fuel blend, need to be factored into the debate on ethanol tax issues.

  7. A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

    2009-02-01

    This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

  8. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries.

    PubMed

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W Philip T; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-05-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15-49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  9. The impact of policy on hospital productivity: a time series analysis of Dutch hospitals.

    PubMed

    Blank, Jos L T; Eggink, Evelien

    2014-06-01

    The health care industry, in particular the hospital industry, is under an increasing degree of pressure, by an ageing population, advancing expensive medical technology a shrinking labor. The pressure on hospitals is further increased by the planned budget cuts in public spending by many current administrations as a result of the economic and financial crises. However, productivity increases may alleviate these problems. Therefore we study whether productivity in the hospital sector is growing, and whether this productivity growth can be influenced by government policy. Using an econometric time series analysis of the hospital sector in the Netherlands, productivity is estimated for the period 1972-2010. Then, productivity is linked to the different regulation regimes during that period, ranging from output funding in the 1970s to the current liberalized hospital market. The results indicate that the average productivity of the hospital sector in different periods differs and that these differences are related to the structure of regulation in those periods. PMID:24258183

  10. Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation responses into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

    SciTech Connect

    Gillig, Dhazn; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sands, Ronald D.

    2004-07-01

    An econometrically estimated family of response functions is developed for characterizing potential responses to greenhouse gas mitigation policies by the agriculture and forestry sectors. The response functions are estimated based on results of an agricultural/forestry sector model. They provide estimates of sequestration and emission reductions in forestry and agriculture along with levels of sectoral production, prices, welfare, and environmental attributes given a carbon price, levels of demand for agricultural goods, and the energy price. Six alternative mitigation policies representing types of greenhouse gas offsets allowed are considered. Results indicate that the largest quantity of greenhouse gas offset consistently appears with the mitigation policy that pays for all opportunities. Restricting carbon payments (emission tax or sequestration subsidy) only to aff/deforestation or only to agricultural sequestration substantially reduces potential mitigation. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare.

  11. Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, John

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

  12. Correlates of violence in Guinea's Maison Centrale Prison: a statistical approach to documenting human rights abuses.

    PubMed

    Osborn, Ronald E

    2010-01-01

    Les Mêmes Droits Pour Tous (MDT) is a human rights NGO in Guinea, West Africa that focuses on the rights of prisoners in Maison Centrale, the country's largest prison located in the capital city of Conakry. In 2007, MDT completed a survey of the prison population to assess basic legal and human rights conditions. This article uses statistical tools to explore MDT's survey results in greater depth, shedding light on human rights violations in Guinea. It contributes to human rights literature that argues for greater use of econometric tools in rights reporting, and demonstrates how human rights practitioners and academics can work together to construct an etiology of violence and torture by state actors, as physical violence is perhaps the most extreme violation of the individual's right to health. PMID:21178191

  13. Consumer Choice of E85 Denatured Ethanol Fuel Blend: Price Sensitivity and Cost of Limited Fuel Availability

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David

    2014-12-01

    The promotion of greater use of E85, a fuel blend of 85% denatured ethanol, by flex-fuel vehicle owners is an important means of complying with the Renewable Fuel Standard 2. A good understanding of factors affecting E85 demand is necessary for effective policies that promote E85 and for developing models that forecast E85 sales in the United States. In this paper, the sensitivity of aggregate E85 demand to E85 and gasoline prices is estimated, as is the relative availability of E85 versus gasoline. The econometric analysis uses recent data from Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa. The more recent data allow a better estimate of nonfleet demand and indicate that the market price elasticity of E85 choice is substantially higher than previously estimated.

  14. Does migration equalize regional unemployment rates? Evidence from Australia.

    PubMed

    Groenewold, N

    1997-01-01

    Whether inter-regional migration equilibrates regional economic performance is a question which has received considerable attention in recent literature. The author examines that question, focusing upon regional unemployment rates and real wages within the context of a 24-hour equation econometric model of the interaction between regional wages, regional unemployment, and inter-regional migration in Australia. Used to solve for steady-state values of wage and unemployment differences, the model determined that the steady state involves non-zero unemployment rate differences and non-zero wage differences. The model is also used to investigate the stability of the equilibrating mechanism and to simulate the effects upon unemployment, migration, and wage rates of a shock to employment growth. The main findings are that inter-regional equilibrating forces are slow and do not help equalize regional unemployment rates or wages. PMID:12295005

  15. Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

    2004-11-01

    In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

  16. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

  17. The federal photovoltaics commercialization program

    SciTech Connect

    Pegram, W.M.

    1989-01-01

    This dissertation presents a political and economic history of the federal government's program to commercialize photovoltaic energy. Chapter 1 is a detailed history of the program. Chapter 2 is a brief review of the Congressional roll call voting literature. Chapter 3 develops PV benefit measures at the state and Congressional district level necessary for an econometric analysis of PV roll call voting. The econometric analysis is presented in Chapter 4. Because PV power was more expensive than conventional power, the research and development program was designed to eventually make PV a significant power source. The decentralized R D program pursued alternative approaches in parallel, with subsequent funding dependent on earlier programs. Funding rose rapidly in the 1970s before shrinking in the 1980s. Tax credits were introduced in 1978, with the last of the credits due to expire this year. Major issues in the program have been the appropriate magnitude of demonstrations and government procurement, whether decentralized, residential use or centralized utility generation would first be economic, the role of storage in PV, and the role of PV in a utility's generation mix. Roll call voting on solar energy (all votes analyzed occur from 1975- 1980) was influenced in a cross-sectional sense by all the influence predicted: party and ideology, local economic benefits of the technology, local PV federal spending and manufacturing, and appropriations committee membership. The cross-sectional results for ideology are consistent with the strongly ideological character of solar energy politics and the timing of funding increases and decreases discussed in Chapter 1. Local PV spending and manufacturing was is significant than ideology or the economic benefits of the technology. Because time series analysis of the votes was not possible, it is not possible to test the role of economic benefits to the nation as a whole.

  18. Space weather and the electricity market: An initial assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbes, Kevin F.; St. Cyr, O. C.

    2004-10-01

    The paper examines the economic impact of space weather by drawing on hourly data from the PJM power grid over the period 1 June 2000 through 31 December 2001. The PJM grid is one of the largest power pools in North America. As of 31 December 2001, its service area had a population of approximately 22 million and included all or part of Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, and the District of Columbia. Market prices are determined for every hour of the day. As of June 2000, there are actually two markets for energy: a real-time market in which market participants can buy and sell electricity in "real time" and a day ahead market that allows participants to enter into transactions one day ahead of time. The existence of these two markets allows us to disentangle the effect of space weather conditions from other factors (such as fuel prices and expected demand) that affect the baseline price (as established in the day ahead market) for wholesale electricity. Several econometric analyses are conducted. The first examines the contribution of space weather to transmission congestion within the power grid. Building on the first analysis, the second analysis constructs an econometric model that examines the impact of space weather on the real-time market. Factors considered in the model include the outcome in the day ahead market, the level of generation utilization, unexpected demand, generation outages, unexpected transmission outages that are believed to be terrestrial in origin, and space weather. The results indicate the presence of space weather effects on the real-time price even after controlling for the other factors. A third model examines whether these space weather impacts affect subsequent prices in the far larger day ahead market.

  19. Cost Drivers for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Using Primary Source Data from Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Bollinger, Lori; Adesina, Adebiyi; Forsythe, Steven; Godbole, Ramona; Reuben, Elan; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Background As voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs scale up, there is a pressing need for information about the important cost drivers, and potential efficiency gains. We examine those cost drivers here, and estimate the potential efficiency gains through an econometric model. Methods and Findings We examined the main cost drivers (i.e., personnel and consumables) associated with providing VMMC in sub-Saharan Africa along a number of dimensions, including facility type and service provider. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia were utilized throughout. We estimated the efficiency gains by econometrically estimating a cost function in order to calculate the impact of scale and other relevant factors. Personnel and consumables were estimated at 36% and 28%, respectively, of total costs across countries. Economies of scale (EOS) is estimated to be eight at the median volume of VMMCs performed, and EOS falls from 23 at the 25th percentile volume of VMMCs performed to 5.1 at the 75th percentile. Conclusions The analysis suggests that there is significant room for efficiency improvement as indicated by declining EOS as VMMC volume increases. The scale of the fall in EOS as VMMC volume increases suggests that we are still at the ascension phase of the scale-up of VMMC, where continuing to add new sites results in additional start-up costs as well. A key aspect of improving efficiency is task sharing VMMC procedures, due to the large percentage of overall costs associated with personnel costs. In addition, efficiency improvements in consumables are likely to occur over time as prices and distribution costs decrease. PMID:24802593

  20. Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide

  1. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts 1988

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-01-01

    This directory contains descriptions about each basic and auxiliary model, including the title, acronym, purpose, and type, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. For developing models, limited information is provided. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 44 EIA models active as of February 1, 1988; 16 of which operate on personal computers. Models that run on personal computers are identified by ''PC'' as part of the acronyms. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical listing of all basic and auxiliary EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies EIA models by type (basic or auxiliary). Appendix C lists developing models and contact persons for those models. A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained support and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here.

  2. Safety regulations, firm size, and the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico outer continental shelf

    SciTech Connect

    Iledare, O.O.; Pulsipher, A.G.; Baumann, R.H.; Dismukes, D.E.

    1996-12-31

    The current expanded role of smaller independent oil producers in the OCS has led to concern about the possibility of increased risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. In addition, questions have been posed concerning the effects of the Minerals Management Service`s (MMS) safety regulations and inspection program, firm size, and industry practices on the risk of accidents in E&P operations on the Gulf of Mexico OCS. The specific purposes of the study reported in this paper were to ascertain (1) whether any empirical justification exists for the widespread concern that an increase in independents relative share of E&P operations in the Gulf OCS region will be detrimental to safety, and (2) whether MMS policies and safety programs have reduced the frequency or severity of accidents on the OCS. Our statistical and descriptive analyses of data on accidents from MMS provide no statistical evidence to support the apprehension that an expanded role for independents in E&P activity constitutes any major threat to safety on the OCS. Further, the results of our econometrics analysis confirm the expectation that the more effective MMS inspectors are at detecting incidents of noncompliance the lower the rate of accidents on the OCS is, ceteris paribus. In addition the results indicate that the variability in platform exposure years--cumulative age of operating platform--in comparison to other factors explains a significant portion of the variation in accidents per operating platform. That is, the platform aging process provides more opportunity for accidents than any other contributing factors. Our econometrics analysis also suggests that, if the other factors contributing to offshore accidents are held constant, the responsiveness of accident rate to drilling activity is inelastic while the response of accident rate to production activity levels is elastic.

  3. Linkages between the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products

    SciTech Connect

    Didziulis, V.S.

    1990-01-01

    To understand the crude oil price determination process it is necessary to extend the analysis beyond the markets for petroleum. Crude oil prices are determined in two closely related markets: the markets for crude oil and the markets for refined products. An econometric-linear programming model was developed to capture the linkages between the markets for crude oil and refined products. In the LP refiners maximize profits given crude oil supplies, refining capacities, and prices of refined products. The objective function is profit maximization net of crude oil prices. The shadow price on crude oil gives the netback price. Refined product prices are obtained from the econometric models. The model covers the free world divided in five regions. The model is used to analyze the impacts on the markets of policies that affect crude oil supplies, the demands for refined products, and the refining industry. For each scenario analyzed the demand for crude oil is derived from the equilibrium conditions in the markets for products. The demand curve is confronted with a supply curve which maximizes revenues providing an equilibrium solution for both crude oil and product markets. The model also captures crude oil price differentials by quality. The results show that the demands for crude oil are different across regions due to the structure of the refining industries and the characteristics of the demands for refined products. Changes in the demands for products have a larger impact on the markets than changes in the refining industry. Since markets for refined products and crude oil are interrelated they can't be analyzed individually if an accurate and complete assessment of a policy is to be made. Changes in only one product market in one region affect the other product markets and the prices of crude oil.

  4. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.

  5. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to −0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was −0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657

  6. Analyzing the Impact of Residential Building Attributes, Demographic and Behavioral Factors on Natural Gas Usage

    SciTech Connect

    Livingston, Olga V.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2011-03-03

    This analysis examines the relationship between energy demand and residential building attributes, demographic characteristics, and behavioral variables using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2005 microdata. This study investigates the applicability of the smooth backfitting estimator to statistical analysis of residential energy consumption via nonparametric regression. The methodology utilized in the study extends nonparametric additive regression via local linear smooth backfitting to categorical variables. The conventional methods used for analyzing residential energy consumption are econometric modeling and engineering simulations. This study suggests an econometric approach that can be utilized in combination with simulation results. A common weakness of previously used econometric models is a very high likelihood that any suggested parametric relationships will be misspecified. Nonparametric modeling does not have this drawback. Its flexibility allows for uncovering more complex relationships between energy use and the explanatory variables than can possibly be achieved by parametric models. Traditionally, building simulation models overestimated the effects of energy efficiency measures when compared to actual "as-built" observed savings. While focusing on technical efficiency, they do not account for behavioral or market effects. The magnitude of behavioral or market effects may have a substantial influence on the final energy savings resulting from implementation of various energy conservation measures and programs. Moreover, variability in behavioral aspects and user characteristics appears to have a significant impact on total energy consumption. Inaccurate estimates of energy consumption and potential savings also impact investment decisions. The existing modeling literature, whether it relies on parametric specifications or engineering simulation, does not accommodate inclusion of a behavioral component. This

  7. Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological

  8. Economic Impacts of Wind Turbine Development in U.S. Counties

    SciTech Connect

    J., Brown; B., Hoen; E., Lantz; J., Pender; R., Wiser

    2011-07-25

    The objective is to address the research question using post-project construction, county-level data, and econometric evaluation methods. Wind energy is expanding rapidly in the United States: Over the last 4 years, wind power has contributed approximately 35 percent of all new electric power capacity. Wind power plants are often developed in rural areas where local economic development impacts from the installation are projected, including land lease and property tax payments and employment growth during plant construction and operation. Wind energy represented 2.3 percent of the U.S. electricity supply in 2010, but studies show that penetrations of at least 20 percent are feasible. Several studies have used input-output models to predict direct, indirect, and induced economic development impacts. These analyses have often been completed prior to project construction. Available studies have not yet investigated the economic development impacts of wind development at the county level using post-construction econometric evaluation methods. Analysis of county-level impacts is limited. However, previous county-level analyses have estimated operation-period employment at 0.2 to 0.6 jobs per megawatt (MW) of power installed and earnings at $9,000/MW to $50,000/MW. We find statistically significant evidence of positive impacts of wind development on county-level per capita income from the OLS and spatial lag models when they are applied to the full set of wind and non-wind counties. The total impact on annual per capita income of wind turbine development (measured in MW per capita) in the spatial lag model was $21,604 per MW. This estimate is within the range of values estimated in the literature using input-output models. OLS results for the wind-only counties and matched samples are similar in magnitude, but are not statistically significant at the 10-percent level. We find a statistically significant impact of wind development on employment in the OLS analysis for

  9. The economic potential of carbon sequestration in Californian agricultural land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catala-Luque, Rosa

    This dissertation studies the potential success of a carbon sequestration policy based on payments to farmers for adoption of alternative, less intensive, management practices in California. Since this is a first approach from a Californian perspective, we focus on Yolo County, an important agricultural county of the State. We focus on the six more important crops of the region: wheat, tomato, corn, rice, safflower, and sunflower. In Chapter 1, we characterize the role of carbon sequestration in Climate Change policy. We also give evidence on which alternative management practices have greenhouse gas mitigation potential (reduced tillage, cover-cropping, and organic systems) based on a study of experimental sites. Chapter 2 advances recognizing the need for information at the field level, and describes the survey designed used to obtain data at the field level, something required to perform a complete integrated assessment of the issue. The survey design is complex in the sense that we use auxiliary information to obtain a control (subpopulation of conventional farmers)-case (subpopulation of innovative farmers) design with stratification for land use. We present estimates for population quantities of interest such as total variable costs, profits, managerial experience in different alternatives, etc. This information efficiently gives field level information for innovative farmers, a missing piece of information so far, since our sampling strategy required the inclusion with probability one of farmers identified as innovative. Using an agronomic process model (DayCent) for the sample and population units, we construct carbon mitigation cost curves for each crop and management observed. Chapter 3 builds different econometric models for cross-sectional data taking into account the survey design, and expanding the sample size constructing productivity potential under each alternative. Based on the yield productivity potential modeled for each unit, we conclude that a

  10. An analysis of the factors influencing demand-side management activity in the electric utility industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, Mark Joseph

    Demand-side management (DSM), defined as the "planning, implementation, and monitoring of utility activities designed to encourage consumers to modify their pattern of electricity usage, including the timing and level of electricity demand," is a relatively new concept in the U.S. electric power industry. Nevertheless, in twenty years since it was first introduced, utility expenditures on DSM programs, as well as the number of such programs, have grown rapidly. At first glance, it may seem peculiar that a firm would actively attempt to reduce demand for its primary product. There are two primary explanations as to why a utility might pursue DSM: regulatory mandate, and self-interest. The purpose of this dissertation is to determine the impact these influences have on the amount of DSM undertaken by utilities. This research is important for two reasons. First, it provides insight into whether DSM will continue to exist as competition becomes more prevalent in the industry. Secondly, it is important because no one has taken a comprehensive look at firm-level DSM activity on an industry-wide basis. The primary data set used in this dissertation is the U.S. Department of Energy's Annual Electric Utility Report, Form EIA-861, which represents the most comprehensive data set available for analyzing DSM activity in the U.S. There are four measures of DSM activity in this data set: (1) utility expenditures on DSM programs; (2) energy savings by DSM program participants; and (3) the actual and (4) the potential reductions in peak load resulting from utility DSM measures. Each is used as the dependent variable in an econometric analysis where independent variables include various utility characteristics, regulatory characteristics, and service territory and customer characteristics. In general, the results from the econometric analysis suggest that in 1993, DSM activity was primarily the result of regulatory pressure. All of the evidence suggests that if DSM continues to

  11. Generality in nanotechnologies and its relationship to economic performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez Baquero, Fernando

    In the history if economic analysis there is perhaps no more important question than the one of how economic development is achieved. For more than a century, economists have explored the role of technology in economic growth but there is still much to be learned about the effect that technologies, in particular emerging ones, have on economic growth and productivity. The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between nanotechnologies and economic growth and productivity, using the theory of General Purpose Technology (GPT)-driven economic growth. To do so, the Generality Index (calculated from patent data) was used to understand the relative pervasiveness of nanotechnologies. The analysis of trends and patterns of Generality Index, using the largest group of patents since the publication of the NBER Patent Database, indicates that nanotechnologies possess a higher average Generality than other technological groups. Next, the relationship between the Generality Index and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was studied using econometric analysis. Model estimates indicate that the variation in Generality for the group of nanotechnologies can explain a large proportion of the variation in TFP. However, the explanatory power of the entire set of patents (not just nanotechnologies) is larger and corresponds better to the expected theoretical models. Additionally, there is a negative short-run relationship between Generality and TFP, conflicting with part of the theoretical GPT-models. Finally, the relationship between the Generality of nanotechnologies and policy-driven investment events, such as R&D investments and grant awards, was studied using econometric methods. The statistical evidence suggests that NSF awards are related to technologies with higher Generality, while NIH awards and NNI investments are related to a lower average Generality. Overall, results of this research work indicate that the introduction of pervasive technologies into an

  12. Land-use change, deforestation, and peasant farm systems: A case study of Mexico's Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vance, Colin James

    This dissertation develops spatially explicit econometric models by linking Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery with household survey data to test behavioral propositions of semi-subsistence farmers in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR) of Mexico. Covering 22,000 km2, this agricultural frontier contains one of the largest and oldest expanses of tropical forests in the Americas outside of Amazonia. Over the past 30 years, the SYPR has undergone significant land-use change largely owing to the construction of a highway through the region's center in 1967. These landscape dynamics are modeled by exploiting a spatial database linking a time series of TM imagery with socio-economic and geo-referenced land-use data collected from a random sample of 188 farm households. The dissertation moves beyond the existing literature on deforestation in three principal respects. Theoretically, the study develops a non-separable model of land-use that relaxes the assumption of profit maximization almost exclusively invoked in studies of the deforestation issue. The model is derived from a utility-maximizing framework that explicitly incorporates the interdependency of the household's production and consumption choices as these affect the allocation of resources. Methodologically, the study assembles a spatial database that couples satellite imagery with household-level socio-economic data. The field survey protocol recorded geo-referenced land-use data through the use of a geographic positioning system and the creation of sketch maps detailing the location of different uses observed within individual plots. Empirically, the study estimates spatially explicit econometric models of land-use change using switching regressions and duration analysis. A distinguishing feature of these models is that they link the dependent and independent variables at the level of the decision unit, the land manager, thereby capturing spatial and temporal heterogeneity that is otherwise

  13. Market Anatomy of a Drought: Modeling Barge and Corn Market Adaptation to Reduced Rainfall and Low Mississippi River Water Levels During the 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foster, B.; Characklis, G. W.; Thurman, W. N.

    2015-12-01

    In mid 2012, a severe drought swept across the Midwest, the heartland of corn production in the U.S. When the drought persisted into late Fall, corn markets were affected in two distinct ways: (1) reduced rainfall led to projected and actual corn yields that were lower than expected and (2) navigation restrictions, a result of low water levels on the Mississippi River, disrupted barge transportation, the most common and inexpensive mode for moving corn to many markets. Both (1) and (2) led to significant financial losses, but due to the complexity of the economic system and the coincidence of two different market impacts, the size of the role that low water levels played wass unclear. This is important, as losses related to low water levels are used to justify substantial investments in dredging activities on the Mississippi River. An "engineering" model of the system, suggests that low water levels should drive large increases in barge and corn prices, while some econometric models suggest that water levels explain very little of the changes in barge rates and corn prices. Employing a model that integrates both the engineering and economic elements of the system indicates that corn prices and barge rates during the drought display spatial and temporal behavior that is difficult to explain using either the engineering or econometric models alone. This integrated model accounts for geographic and temporal variations in drought impacts and identifies unique market responses to four different sets of conditions over the drought's length. Results illustrate that corn and barge price responses during the drought were a product of comingled, but distinct, reactions to both supply changes and navigation disruptions. Results also provide a more structured description of how the economic system that governs corn allocation interacts with the Mississippi River system during drought. As both public and private parties discuss potential managerial or infrastructural methods

  14. Calendar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-06-01

    JULY 2004 2nd World Congress of the Game Theory Society, Faculty of Luminy, Marseille, France 5-9 July 2004 Europa Organisation (europa@europa-organisation.com), +33 5 34 45 26 45, www.gts2004.org Budapest Workshop on Behavioral Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary 5-10 July 2004 Eva Dotzi (behavecon@ceu.hu), www.iza.org/en/calls_conferences/CallCEU_04.pdf FDA'04. 1st IFAC Workshop on Fractional Differentiation and its Applications, Bordeaux, France 19-20 July 2004 IFAC secretariat (fda04@lap.u-bordeaux1.fr), www.lap.u-bordeaux.fr/fda04/ Bachelier Finance Society Third World Congress, InterContinental Hotel, Chicago, IL, USA 21-24 July 2004 bfs2004@uic.edu, www.uic.edu/orgs/bachelier/ BS/IMS 2004. 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Barcelona, Spain 26-31 July 2004 wc2004@pacifico-meetings.com, +34 93 402 13 85, www.imub.ub.es/events/wc2004 AUGUST 2004 Summer School in Econometrics. The Cointegrated VAR Model: Econometric Methodology and Macroeconomic Applications, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 2-22 August 2004 Summerschool@econ.ku.dk, www.econ.ku.dk/summerschool SEPTEMBER 2004 First Bonzenfreies Colloquium on Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics, Alessandria, Palazzo Borsalino, Italy 9-10 September 2004 colloquium@unipmn.it, www.mfn.unipmn.it/~colloqui/ Risk Analysis 2004. 4th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, Aldemar Paradise Royal Mare Hotel, Rhodes, Greece 27-29 September 2004 enquiries@wessex.ac.uk, +44 (0)238 029 3223, www.wessex.ac.uk/conferences/2004/risk04/ OCTOBER 2004 IRC Hedge 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 10, 11 October 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=10 NOVEMBER 2004 IRC DICE 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 22, 23 November 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=13 DECEMBER 2004

  15. Essays on measurement and evaluation of demand side management programs in the electricity industry, and impacts of firm strategy on stock price in the biotechnology industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandres Motola, Miguel A.

    Essay one estimates changes in small business customer energy consumption (kWh) patterns resulting from a seasonally differentiated pricing structure. Econometric analysis leverages cross-sectional time series data across the entire population of affected customers, from 2007 through the present. Observations include: monthly energy usage (kWh), relevant customer segmentations, local daily temperature, energy price, and region-specific economic conditions, among other variables. The study identifies the determinants of responsiveness to seasonal price differentiation. In addition, estimated energy consumption changes occurring during the 2010 summer season are reported for the average customer and in aggregate grouped by relevant customer segments, climate zone, and total customer base. Essay two develops an econometric modeling methodology to evaluate load impacts for short duration demand response events. The study analyzes time series data from a season of direct load control program tests aimed at integrating demand response into the wholesale electricity market. I have combined "fuzzy logic" with binary variables to create "fuzzy indicator variables" that allow for measurement of short duration events while using industry standard model specifications. Typically, binary variables for every hour are applied in load impact analysis of programs dispatched in hourly intervals. As programs evolve towards integration with the wholesale market, event durations become irregular and often occur for periods of only a few minutes. This methodology is innovative in that it conserves the degrees of freedom in the model while allowing for analysis of high frequency data using fixed effects. Essay three examines the effects of strategies, intangibles, and FDA news on the stocks of young biopharmaceutical firms. An event study methodology is used to explore those effects. This study investigates 20,839 announcements from 1990 to 2005. Announcements on drug development

  16. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality

  17. Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Aydin, Alev Dilek; Caliskan Cavdar, Seyma

    2015-01-01

    The ANN method has been applied by means of multilayered feedforward neural networks (MLFNs) by using different macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate of USD/TRY, gold prices, and the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index based on monthly data over the period of January 2000 and September 2014 for Turkey. Vector autoregressive (VAR) method has also been applied with the same variables for the same period of time. In this study, different from other studies conducted up to the present, ENCOG machine learning framework has been used along with JAVA programming language in order to constitute the ANN. The training of network has been done by resilient propagation method. The ex post and ex ante estimates obtained by the ANN method have been compared with the results obtained by the econometric forecasting method of VAR. Strikingly, our findings based on the ANN method reveal that there is a possibility of financial distress or a financial crisis in Turkey starting from October 2017. The results which were obtained with the method of VAR also support the results of ANN method. Additionally, our results indicate that the ANN approach has more superior prediction performance than the VAR method. PMID:26550010

  18. Persistent Symptoms of Dengue: Estimates of the Incremental Disease and Economic Burden in Mexico

    PubMed Central

    Tiga, D. Carolina; Undurraga, Eduardo A.; Ramos-Castañeda, José; Martínez-Vega, Ruth A.; Tschampl, Cynthia A.; Shepard, Donald S.

    2016-01-01

    Dengue is mostly considered an acute illness with three phases: febrile, critical with possible hemorrhagic manifestations, and recovery. But some patients present persistent symptoms, including fatigue and depression, as acknowledged by the World Health Organization. If persistent symptoms affect a non-negligible share of patients, the burden of dengue will be underestimated. On the basis of a systematic literature review and econometric modeling, we found a significant relationship between the share of patients reporting persisting symptoms and time. We updated estimates of the economic burden of dengue in Mexico, addressing uncertainty in productivity loss and incremental expenses using Monte Carlo simulations. Persistent symptoms represent annually about US$22.6 (95% certainty level [CL]: US$13–US$29) million in incremental costs and 28.2 (95% CL: 21.6–36.2) additional disability-adjusted life years per million population, or 13% and 43% increases over previous estimates, respectively. Although our estimates have uncertainty from limited data, they show a substantial, unmeasured burden. Similar patterns likely extend to other dengue-endemic countries. PMID:26976885

  19. The carbohydrate-fat problem: can we construct a healthy diet based on dietary guidelines?

    PubMed

    Drewnowski, Adam

    2015-05-01

    The inclusion of nutrition economics in dietary guidance would help ensure that the Dietary Guidelines for Americans benefit equally all segments of the US population. The present review outlines some novel metrics of food affordability that assess nutrient density of foods and beverages in relation to cost. Socioeconomic disparities in diet quality in the United States are readily apparent. In general, groups of lower socioeconomic status consume cheaper, lower-quality diets and suffer from higher rates of noncommunicable diseases. Nutrient profiling models, initially developed to assess the nutrient density of foods, can be turned into econometric models that assess both calories and nutrients per reference amount and per unit cost. These novel metrics have been used to identify individual foods that were affordable, palatable, culturally acceptable, and nutrient rich. Not all nutrient-rich foods were expensive. In dietary surveys, both local and national, some high-quality diets were associated with relatively low cost. Those population subgroups that successfully adopted dietary guidelines at an unexpectedly low monetary cost were identified as "positive deviants." Constructing a healthy diet based on dietary guidelines can be done, provided that nutrient density of foods, their affordability, as well as taste and social norms are all taken into account. PMID:25979505

  20. The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior. PMID:21218347

  1. Do Executives' Backgrounds Matter to IPO Investors? Evidence from the Life Science Industry

    PubMed Central

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds. PMID:23690920

  2. Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.

  3. The remittances of migrant Tongan and Samoan nurses from Australia

    PubMed Central

    Connell, John; Brown, Richard PC

    2004-01-01

    Background Migration and remittances are of considerable importance in the small Pacific island states. There has been a significant migration of skilled health workers in recent decades to metropolitan fringe states, including Australia and New Zealand. This paper reports the findings of a re-analysis of survey of Samoan and Tongan migrants in Australia where the sample is split between nurse households and others. Methods The study analyzes the survey data with a view to comparing the remittance behaviour and determinants of remittances for nurses and other migrant households, using both descriptive, cross-tabulations and appropriate econometric methods. Results It is found that a significantly higher proportion of nurse households sent remittances home, and, on average remitted more. Remittances of nurse households did not decline significantly over time contrary to what has generally been predicted. This was in contrast to other migrant households in the sample, for whom remittances showed a sharp decline after 15 years absence. Remittances contribute much more to the income of migrant sending countries, than the cost of the additional human capital in nurse training. Conclusions Given the shortage of nurses in Australia and New Zealand, and therefore the high demand for immigrant nurses, investment by Pacific island governments and families in nurse training constitutes a rational use of economic resources. Policies encouraging investment in home countries may be more effective than policies directly discouraging brain drain in contributing to national development. PMID:15078577

  4. The comparison of robust partial least squares regression with robust principal component regression on a real

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polat, Esra; Gunay, Suleyman

    2013-10-01

    One of the problems encountered in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is multicollinearity, which causes the overestimation of the regression parameters and increase of the variance of these parameters. Hence, in case of multicollinearity presents, biased estimation procedures such as classical Principal Component Regression (CPCR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) are then performed. SIMPLS algorithm is the leading PLSR algorithm because of its speed, efficiency and results are easier to interpret. However, both of the CPCR and SIMPLS yield very unreliable results when the data set contains outlying observations. Therefore, Hubert and Vanden Branden (2003) have been presented a robust PCR (RPCR) method and a robust PLSR (RPLSR) method called RSIMPLS. In RPCR, firstly, a robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for high-dimensional data on the independent variables is applied, then, the dependent variables are regressed on the scores using a robust regression method. RSIMPLS has been constructed from a robust covariance matrix for high-dimensional data and robust linear regression. The purpose of this study is to show the usage of RPCR and RSIMPLS methods on an econometric data set, hence, making a comparison of two methods on an inflation model of Turkey. The considered methods have been compared in terms of predictive ability and goodness of fit by using a robust Root Mean Squared Error of Cross-validation (R-RMSECV), a robust R2 value and Robust Component Selection (RCS) statistic.

  5. Financing the response to AIDS: some fiscal and macroeconomic considerations.

    PubMed

    Haacker, Markus

    2008-07-01

    This article examines the international response to AIDS from a fiscal perspective: first the financing of the international response to AIDS, especially the role of external financing, and second, a more comprehensive perspective on the costs of the national response to AIDS relevant for fiscal policy. The second half of the article focuses on the effectiveness of the response to AIDS. We find that there is little basis for concerns about macroeconomic constraints to scaling up, in light of the moderate scale of AIDS-related aid flows relative to overall aid. Regarding sectoral constraints, the picture is more differentiated. Many countries with high prevalence rates have also achieved high rates of access to treatment, but most of these are middle-income countries. Our econometric analysis credits external aid as a key factor that has enabled higher-prevalence countries to cope with the additional demands for health services. At the same time, gross domestic product per capita and health sector capacities are important determinants of access to treatment. PMID:18664949

  6. Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends.

    PubMed

    Ionides, Edward L; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A

    2013-10-01

    Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association. PMID:24587843

  7. Macroeconomic effects on mortality revealed by panel analysis with nonlinear trends

    PubMed Central

    Ionides, Edward L.; Wang, Zhen; Tapia Granados, José A.

    2013-01-01

    Many investigations have used panel methods to study the relationships between fluctuations in economic activity and mortality. A broad consensus has emerged on the overall procyclical nature of mortality: perhaps counter-intuitively, mortality typically rises above its trend during expansions. This consensus has been tarnished by inconsistent reports on the specific age groups and mortality causes involved. We show that these inconsistencies result, in part, from the trend specifications used in previous panel models. Standard econometric panel analysis involves fitting regression models using ordinary least squares, employing standard errors which are robust to temporal autocorrelation. The model specifications include a fixed effect, and possibly a linear trend, for each time series in the panel. We propose alternative methodology based on nonlinear detrending. Applying our methodology on data for the 50 US states from 1980 to 2006, we obtain more precise and consistent results than previous studies. We find procyclical mortality in all age groups. We find clear procyclical mortality due to respiratory disease and traffic injuries. Predominantly procyclical cardiovascular disease mortality and countercyclical suicide are subject to substantial state-to-state variation. Neither cancer nor homicide have significant macroeconomic association. PMID:24587843

  8. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region

    PubMed Central

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-01-01

    Background Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. Methods The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. Results The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. Conclusions We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  9. Impact of socio-economic growth on desalination in the US.

    PubMed

    Ziolkowska, Jadwiga R; Reyes, Reuben

    2016-02-01

    In 2013, around 1336 desalination plants in the United States (US) provided purified water mainly to municipalities, the industry sector and for power generation. In 2013 alone, ∼200 million m(3) of water were desalinated; the amount that could satisfy annual municipal water consumption of more than 1.5 million people in the US. Desalination has proven to be a reliable water supply source in many countries around the world, with the total global desalination capacity of ∼60 million m(3)/day in 2013. Desalination has been used to mitigate water scarcity and lessen the pressure on water resources. Currently, data and information about desalination are still limited, while extensive socio-economic analyses are missing. This paper presents an econometric model to fill this gap. It evaluates the impact of selected socio-economic variables on desalination development in the US in the time span 1970-2013. The results show that the GDP and population growth have significantly impacted the desalination sector over the analyzed time period. The insights into the economics of desalination provided with this paper can be used to further evaluate cost-effectiveness of desalination both in the US and in other countries around the world. PMID:26610194

  10. Financial hardship and obesity.

    PubMed

    Averett, Susan L; Smith, Julie K

    2014-12-01

    There is a substantial correlation between household debt and health. Individuals with less healthy lifestyles are more likely to hold debt, yet there is little evidence as to whether this is merely a correlation or if financial hardship actually causes obesity. In this paper, we use data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health to test whether financial hardship affects body weight. We divide our sample into two groups: men and women, explore two different types of financial hardship: holding credit card debt and having trouble paying bills, and three outcomes: overweight, obese and body mass index (BMI). We use a variety of econometric techniques: Ordinary Least Squares, Propensity Score Matching, Sibling Fixed Effects, and Instrumental Variables to investigate the relationship that exists between financial hardship and body weight. In addition, we conduct several robustness checks. Although our OLS and PSM results indicate a correlation between financial hardship and body weight these results appear to be largely driven by unobservables. Our IV results suggest that there is no causal relationship between credit card debt and overweight or obesity for either men or women. However, we find suggestive evidence that having trouble paying bills may be a cause of obesity for women. PMID:24411309

  11. An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houde, Jean-Francois

    In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

  12. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

  13. Do executives' backgrounds matter to IPO investors? Evidence from the life science industry.

    PubMed

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds. PMID:23690920

  14. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

  15. Determinants of US Prescription Drug Utilization using County Level Data.

    PubMed

    Nianogo, Thierry; Okunade, Albert; Fofana, Demba; Chen, Weiwei

    2016-05-01

    Prescription drugs are the third largest component of US healthcare expenditures. The 2006 Medicare Part D and the 2010 Affordable Care Act are catalysts for further growths in utilization becuase of insurance expansion effects. This research investigating the determinants of prescription drug utilization is timely, methodologically novel, and policy relevant. Differences in population health status, access to care, socioeconomics, demographics, and variations in per capita number of scripts filled at retail pharmacies across the USA justify fitting separate econometric models to county data of the states partitioned into low, medium, and high prescription drug users. Given the skewed distribution of per capita number of filled prescriptions (response variable), we fit the variance stabilizing Box-Cox power transformation regression models to 2011 county level data for investigating the correlates of prescription drug utilization separately for low, medium, and high utilization states. Maximum likelihood regression parameter estimates, including the optimal Box-Cox λ power transformations, differ across high (λ = 0.214), medium (λ = 0.942), and low (λ = 0.302) prescription drug utilization models. The estimated income elasticities of -0.634, 0.031, and -0.532 in high, medium, and low utilization models suggest that the economic behavior of prescriptions is not invariant across different utilization levels. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25903420

  16. Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

  17. Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun

    2015-02-01

    Understanding climate controls on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems is critically important in predicting the impacts of future climate change on grassland productivity and carbon storage. The third-generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were applied to derive the start of the growing season (SOS) from 1982-2010 in grassland ecosystems of Ordos, a typical semi-arid area in China. Then, the conditional Granger causality method was utilized to quantify the directed functional connectivity between key climatic drivers and the SOS. The results show that the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) function is better in reducing noise of NDVI time series than the double logistic (DL) function within our study area. The southeastern Ordos has earlier occurrence and lower variability of the SOS, whereas the northwestern Ordos has later occurrence and higher variability of the SOS. The research also reveals that spring precipitation has stronger causal connectivity with the SOS than other climatic factors over different grassland ecosystem types. There is no statistically significant trend across the study area, while the similar pattern is observed for spring precipitation. Our study highlights the link of spring phenology with different grassland types, and the use of coupling remote sensing and econometric tools. With the dramatic increase in global change research, Granger causality method augurs well for further development and application of time-series modeling of complex social-ecological systems at the intersection of remote sensing and landscape changes.

  18. International energy cooperation: The mismatch between IEA policy actions and policy goals: (Final report)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, R.T.

    1985-01-01

    This analysis discusses the link, if any, between IEA policy actions and stated goals of the Program. Understanding the reasons for success or failure of IEA actions identifies which policies achieve real gains from international energy cooperation, and which are counterproductive. Section I is an overview of the structural framework of the IEA. Section II describes the institutional and organizational background, including the policy mechanisms, of the IEA. Section III looks at specific policy actions undertaken by the agency, particularly during the Iranian revolution and at the outbreak of the Iran-Iraq War. The economic consequences of oil sharing are examined in section IV, which simulates a world oil supply disruption affecting IEA member countries differentially. Section V analyzes import controls, focusing on coordination problems and possible OPEC pricing responses, and examines the actual record of general petroleum consumption restraints in 1980. Oil stockpiling is analyzed both as a general economic phenomenon and an object of IEA coordination in section VI, which also offers an econometric analysis of actual experience in the 1970s and 1980s. Section VII considers a number of less formal assessments of IEA policies, including self-evaluations by the IEA itself.

  19. What are the policy lessons of National Alcohol Prohibition in the United States, 1920-1933?

    PubMed

    Hall, Wayne

    2010-07-01

    National alcohol prohibition in the United States between 1920 and 1933 is believed widely to have been a misguided and failed social experiment that made alcohol problems worse by encouraging drinkers to switch to spirits and created a large black market for alcohol supplied by organized crime. The standard view of alcohol prohibition provides policy lessons that are invoked routinely in policy debates about alcohol and other drugs. The alcohol industry invokes it routinely when resisting proposals to reduce the availability of alcohol, increase its price or regulate alcohol advertising and promotion. Advocates of cannabis law reform invoke it frequently in support of their cause. This paper aims: (i) to provide an account of alcohol prohibition that is more accurate than the standard account because it is informed by historical and econometric analyses; (ii) to describe the policy debates in the 1920s and 1930s about the effectiveness of national prohibition; and (iii) to reflect on any relevance that the US experience with alcohol prohibition has for contemporary policies towards alcohol. It is incorrect to claim that the US experience of National Prohibition indicates that prohibition as a means of regulating alcohol is always doomed to failure. Subsequent experience shows that partial prohibitions can produce substantial public health benefits at an acceptable social cost, in the absence of substantial enforcement. PMID:20331549

  20. Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: carbon intensity, economic growth and policy intervention.

    PubMed

    Yu, Bing; Li, Xiao; Qiao, Yuanbo; Shi, Lei

    2015-02-01

    As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO2 emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO2 abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO2 emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO2 emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO2 abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO2 emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO2 abatement. PMID:25662248