Sample records for econometrics

  1. Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

    2005-07-01

    This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

  2. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  3. Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    2001-01-01

    Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

  4. Factors influencing crime rates: an econometric analysis approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bothos, John M. A.; Thomopoulos, Stelios C. A.

    2016-05-01

    The scope of the present study is to research the dynamics that determine the commission of crimes in the US society. Our study is part of a model we are developing to understand urban crime dynamics and to enhance citizens' "perception of security" in large urban environments. The main targets of our research are to highlight dependence of crime rates on certain social and economic factors and basic elements of state anticrime policies. In conducting our research, we use as guides previous relevant studies on crime dependence, that have been performed with similar quantitative analyses in mind, regarding the dependence of crime on certain social and economic factors using statistics and econometric modelling. Our first approach consists of conceptual state space dynamic cross-sectional econometric models that incorporate a feedback loop that describes crime as a feedback process. In order to define dynamically the model variables, we use statistical analysis on crime records and on records about social and economic conditions and policing characteristics (like police force and policing results - crime arrests), to determine their influence as independent variables on crime, as the dependent variable of our model. The econometric models we apply in this first approach are an exponential log linear model and a logit model. In a second approach, we try to study the evolvement of violent crime through time in the US, independently as an autonomous social phenomenon, using autoregressive and moving average time-series econometric models. Our findings show that there are certain social and economic characteristics that affect the formation of crime rates in the US, either positively or negatively. Furthermore, the results of our time-series econometric modelling show that violent crime, viewed solely and independently as a social phenomenon, correlates with previous years crime rates and depends on the social and economic environment's conditions during previous years.

  5. Parameterized examination in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

    2018-01-01

    The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

  6. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

  7. The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

    PubMed

    Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

    2015-06-01

    The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

  8. Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

    2008-10-01

    Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

  9. Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

    PubMed

    Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

    2016-10-01

    One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

  10. Econometrics and Psychometrics: A Survey of Communalities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldberger, Arthur S.

    1971-01-01

    Several themes which are common to both econometrics and psychometrics are surveyed. The themes are illustrated by reference to permanent income hypotheses, simultaneous equation models, adaptive expectations and partial adjustment schemes, and by reference to test score theory, factor analysis, and time-series models. (Author)

  11. Price of gasoline: forecasting comparisons. [Box-Jenkins, econometric, and regression methods

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bopp, A.E.; Neri, J.A.

    Gasoline prices are simulated using three popular forecasting methodologies: A Box--Jenkins type method, an econometric method, and a regression method. One-period-ahead and 18-period-ahead comparisons are made. For the one-period-ahead method, a Box--Jenkins type time-series model simulated best, although all do well. However, for the 18-period simulation, the econometric and regression methods perform substantially better than the Box-Jenkins formulation. A rationale for and implications of these results ae discussed. 11 references.

  12. Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-19

    This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

  13. Econometric Models of U.S. Navy Career Petty Officer Retention.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    PF AD-AL04 076 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA F/6 5/9 ECONO ETRIC MODELS OF U.S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION.(Ul JUN 81 J J B PKO...THESIS D . ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF U. S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION SML Vby John Joseph Bepko III June 1981 Thesis Advisor: George W. Thomas...DOCUMENTATION PACE 33703 coTu~rwc oEm 0419PsR 01N1911VT*48~ &GM01 1𔃻. 411CIP1SIMYS CATALOG IulmSIS Econometric Models of U. S. Navy Career Petty 1’ t h s s j

  14. Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

    1981-12-01

    An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

  15. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  16. Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

    2016-01-01

    The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

  17. Allocating physicians' overhead costs to services: an econometric/accounting-activity based-approach.

    PubMed

    Peden, Al; Baker, Judith J

    2002-01-01

    Using the optimizing properties of econometric analysis, this study analyzes how physician overhead costs (OC) can be allocated to multiple activities to maximize precision in reimbursing the costs of services. Drawing on work by Leibenstein and Friedman, the analysis also shows that allocating OC to multiple activities unbiased by revenue requires controlling for revenue when making the estimates. Further econometric analysis shows that it is possible to save about 10 percent of OC by paying only for those that are necessary.

  18. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  19. Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

    2013-07-01

    A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

  20. Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hansen, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

  1. An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold

    1982-01-01

    A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

  2. Crystal study and econometric model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1975-01-01

    An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

  3. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  4. What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morales, Lucia

    2013-01-01

    The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

  5. An Econometric Approach to Evaluate Navy Advertising Efficiency.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-03-01

    This thesis uses an econometric approach to systematically and comprehensively analyze Navy advertising and recruiting data to determine Navy... advertising cost efficiency in the Navy recruiting process. Current recruiting and advertising cost data are merged into an appropriate data base and...evaluated using multiple regression techniques to find assessments of the relationships between Navy advertising expenditures and recruit contracts attained

  6. Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Crow, R.T.

    1980-05-01

    Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also relatedmore » to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)« less

  7. Predicting future forestland area: a comparison of econometric approaches.

    Treesearch

    SoEun Ahn; Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig

    2000-01-01

    Predictions of future forestland area are an important component of forest policy analyses. In this article, we test the ability of econometric land use models to accurately forecast forest area. We construct a panel data set for Alabama consisting of county and time-series observation for the period 1964 to 1992. We estimate models using restricted data sets-namely,...

  8. Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

    Treesearch

    J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

    2014-01-01

    : We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

  9. An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1979-01-01

    A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

  10. An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chau, Laurence C.

    This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

  11. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  12. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-31

    This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

  13. Hedonic approaches based on spatial econometrics and spatial statistics: application to evaluation of project benefits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime

    2009-12-01

    This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.

  14. Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Das, Amaresh

    2010-01-01

    This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

  15. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  16. Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

  17. Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

    PubMed

    Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

    1998-01-01

    We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

  18. Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

    1991-01-01

    The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

  19. A comparative analysis of errors in long-term econometric forecasts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Tepel, R.

    1986-04-01

    The growing body of literature that documents forecast accuracy falls generally into two parts. The first is prescriptive and is carried out by modelers who use simulation analysis as a tool for model improvement. These studies are ex post, that is, they make use of known values for exogenous variables and generate an error measure wholly attributable to the model. The second type of analysis is descriptive and seeks to measure errors, identify patterns among errors and variables and compare forecasts from different sources. Most descriptive studies use an ex ante approach, that is, they evaluate model outputs based onmore » estimated (or forecasted) exogenous variables. In this case, it is the forecasting process, rather than the model, that is under scrutiny. This paper uses an ex ante approach to measure errors in forecast series prepared by Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (Wharton), and Chase Econometrics (Chase) and to determine if systematic patterns of errors can be discerned between services, types of variables (by degree of aggregation), length of forecast and time at which the forecast is made. Errors are measured as the percent difference between actual and forecasted values for the historical period of 1971 to 1983.« less

  20. Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

    Treesearch

    Ralph J. Alig

    1986-01-01

    Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

  1. Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

    1979-01-01

    Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

  2. Entropy Econometrics for combining regional economic forecasts: A Data-Weighted Prior Estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernández-Vázquez, Esteban; Moreno, Blanca

    2017-10-01

    Forecast combination has been studied in econometrics for a long time, and the literature has shown the superior performance of forecast combination over individual predictions. However, there is still controversy on which is the best procedure to specify the forecast weights. This paper explores the possibility of using a procedure based on Entropy Econometrics, which allows setting the weights for the individual forecasts as a mixture of different alternatives. In particular, we examine the ability of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed by Golan (J Econom 101(1):165-193, 2001) to combine forecasting models in a context of small sample sizes, a relative common scenario when dealing with time series for regional economies. We test the validity of the proposed approach using a simulation exercise and a real-world example that aims at predicting gross regional product growth rates for a regional economy. The forecasting performance of the Data-Weighted Prior Estimator proposed is compared with other combining methods. The simulation results indicate that in scenarios of heavily ill-conditioned datasets the approach suggested dominates other forecast combination strategies. The empirical results are consistent with the conclusions found in the numerical experiment.

  3. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  4. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  5. Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gana, Rajaram

    This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

  6. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  7. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  8. Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

    PubMed

    Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

    2002-07-01

    Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements

  10. A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

    PubMed Central

    Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

    1980-01-01

    The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

  11. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  12. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  13. Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, J. A.

    1978-01-01

    Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

  14. Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro-Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism.

    PubMed

    Nassios, Jason; Giesecke, James A

    2018-04-01

    Economic consequence analysis is one of many inputs to terrorism contingency planning. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are being used more frequently in these analyses, in part because of their capacity to accommodate high levels of event-specific detail. In modeling the potential economic effects of a hypothetical terrorist event, two broad sets of shocks are required: (1) physical impacts on observable variables (e.g., asset damage); (2) behavioral impacts on unobservable variables (e.g., investor uncertainty). Assembling shocks describing the physical impacts of a terrorist incident is relatively straightforward, since estimates are either readily available or plausibly inferred. However, assembling shocks describing behavioral impacts is more difficult. Values for behavioral variables (e.g., required rates of return) are typically inferred or estimated by indirect means. Generally, this has been achieved via reference to extraneous literature or ex ante surveys. This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE-relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare values for these shifts with input assumptions in earlier ex ante CGE studies; and (ii) discuss how future ex ante studies can be informed by our analysis. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

  15. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  16. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

  17. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Epple, D.

    1983-01-01

    This report takes a major step toward developing a fruitful approach to empirical analysis of resource supply. It is the first empirical application of resource theory that has successfully integrated the effects of depletion of nonrenewable resources with the effects of uncertainty about future costs and prices on supply behavior. Thus, the model is a major improvement over traditional engineering-optimization models that assume complete certainty, and over traditional econometrics models that are only implicitly related to the theory of resource supply. The model is used to test hypotheses about interdependence of oil and natural gas discoveries, depletion, ultimate recovery, andmore » the role of price expectations. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using exhaustible resource theory in the development of empirically testable models. 19 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

  19. Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

    PubMed

    Mcdonald, J F

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

  20. Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

  1. Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-09-21

    Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

  2. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  3. HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Lachaud, Jean-Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing simultaneously and drastically HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relationship between HIV prevalence in adult women and men, and living standards of individuals. Then, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relationship between, on the one hand, the level of regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (poverty) of households. At the same time, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Secondly, and correlatively, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty is called into question. First of all, some structural factors may contribute to a distortion of the relationship between resources of households and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This may be due, on the one hand, to the persistence of cognitive and behavioural factors inherent in a traditional society, and in particular, to the fact that the social construction of female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of "decision-makers" with regard to sexual intercourse, while the persistence of secular beliefs contributes to minimizing the perception of HIV/AIDS in terms of risk, independently of standards of living. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required development of road and railway traffic with neighbouring countries, in particular Côte d'Ivoire. Therefore, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of the exchange of goods, services

  4. Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

    PubMed

    Mullahy, J

    1998-06-01

    In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

  5. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

  6. A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

    Treesearch

    David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

  7. Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wells, Aaron Raymond

    This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust

  8. [Econometric and ethical validation of regression logistics. Reducing of the number of patients in the evaluation of mortality].

    PubMed

    Castiel, D; Herve, C

    1992-01-01

    In general, a large number of patients is needed to conclude whether the results of a therapeutic strategy are significant or not. One can lower this number with a logit. The method has been proposed in an article published recently (Cost-utility analysis of early thrombolytic therapy, Pharmaco Economics, 1992). The present article is an essay aimed at validating the method, both from the econometric and ethical points of view.

  9. Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

    2018-01-01

    The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

  10. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  11. Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

    PubMed

    Bramati, Maria Caterina

    2016-11-15

    Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSESmore » accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.« less

  13. Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.

    1981-03-01

    This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements aremore » developed in the report on the model specification).« less

  14. Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    González Canché, Manuel S.

    2018-01-01

    This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

  15. Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

    PubMed

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

  16. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  17. Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol

    PubMed Central

    Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

    2014-01-01

    Background: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the ‘Sheffield model’). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders’ views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Results: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the ‘real life’ world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Conclusion: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. PMID:24367068

  18. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  19. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the

  20. Family planning choice behaviour in urban slums of Bangladesh: an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Barkat, A; Rahman, M U; Bose, M L

    1997-03-01

    Bangladesh's urban population is projected to account for 26% of the country's total population by the year 2000 and 37% by 2015. A 1991 Bangladesh census report found that about 21 million of the total 111.5 million population were living in urban areas. 1551 currently-married women of reproductive age in 1551 households sampled from a representative sample of 91 slums in the metropolitan areas of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Khulna participated in a study of family planning behavior choice. 673 of the women were practicing family planning. The authors describe the construction of the econometric model used for analysis. Economic status as indicated by household income was found to considerably influence people's decisions concerning family planning practices. Higher women's educational status is also positively correlated with family planning practice. Husband's educational status has a less significant effect upon family planning practice. The change of a person from non-Muslim to Muslim has an insignificant, though positive, impact upon family planning practice. The more a woman feels empowered, being over age 19 years, the greater the number of living children, and the lower the level of preference for sons, the more likely a woman is to practice family planning.

  1. Research without billing data. Econometric estimation of patient-specific costs.

    PubMed

    Barnett, P G

    1997-06-01

    This article describes a method for computing the cost of care provided to individual patients in health care systems that do not routinely generate billing data, but gather information on patient utilization and total facility costs. Aggregate data on cost and utilization were used to estimate how costs vary with characteristics of patients and facilities of the US Department of Veterans Affairs. A set of cost functions was estimated, taking advantage of the department-level organization of the data. Casemix measures were used to determine the costs of acute hospital and long-term care. Hospitalization for medical conditions cost an average of $5,642 per US Health Care Financing Administration diagnosis-related group weight; surgical hospitalizations cost $11,836. Nursing home care cost $197.33 per day, intermediate care cost $280.66 per day, psychiatric care cost $307.33 per day, and domiciliary care cost $111.84 per day. Outpatient visits cost an average of $90.36. These estimates include the cost of physician services. The econometric method presented here accounts for variation in resource use caused by casemix that is not reflected in length of stay and for the effects of medical education, research, facility size, and wage rates. Data on non-Veteran's Affairs hospital stays suggest that the method accounts for 40% of the variation in acute hospital care costs and is superior to cost estimates based on length of stay or diagnosis-related group weight alone.

  2. Self-insurance and worksite alcohol programs: an econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Kenkel, D S

    1997-03-01

    The worksite is an important point of access for alcohol treatment and prevention, but not all firms are likely to find offering alcohol programs profitable. This study attempts to identify at a conceptual and empirical level factors that are important determinants of the profitability of worksite alcohol programs. A central question considered in the empirical analysis is whether firms' decisions about worksite alcohol programs are related to how employee group health insurance is provided. The data used are from the 1992 National Survey of Worksite Health Promotion Activities (N = 1,389-1,412). The econometric analysis focuses on measures of whether the surveyed firms offer Employee Assistance Programs (EAPs), individual counseling, group classes and resource materials regarding alcohol and other substance abuse. Holding other factors constant, the probability that a self-insured firm offers an EAP is estimated to be 59%, compared to 51% for a firm that purchases market group health insurance for its employees. Unionized worksites and larger worksites are also found to be more likely to offer worksite alcohol programs, compared to nonunionized smaller worksites. Worksites with younger work-forces are less likely than those with older employees to offer alcohol programs. The empirical results are consistent with the conceptual framework from labor economics, since self-insurance is expected to increase firms' demand for worksite alcohol programs while large worksite is expected to reduce the average program cost. The role of union status and workforce age suggests it is important to consider workers' preferences for the programs as fringe benefits. The results also suggest that the national trend towards self-insurance may be leading to more prevention and treatment of worker alcohol-related problems.

  3. Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

    2017-02-01

    This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

  4. Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

    2018-06-17

    Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

  5. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced

  6. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

    PubMed Central

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

  7. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

    PubMed

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-11-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

  8. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

  9. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

  10. Quality competition in local hospital markets: some econometric evidence from the period 1982-1988.

    PubMed

    Chirikos, T N

    1992-05-01

    This study examines whether American hospitals continued to engage in non-price or quality competition over the recent past as health care markets underwent fundamental structural changes and the economic incentives facing hospital managers were correspondingly altered. It also investigates the degree to which such rivalrous behavior contributes to losses in economic welfare. An econometric model of quality competition is specified that tests, among other things, for the effect of spending by the hospital to enhance the quality of output on annual changes in its share of the local (inpatient) market as well as the effects of competitive conditions in the local market on the annual sum spent on quality enhancement. The model is estimated with panel data on 195 acute care hospitals in the State of Florida for the years 1982-1988. The results suggest that quality competitive behavior continued unabated over this period and that it was stimulated as much by the growth in physician supply and alternative delivery mechanisms as it was by other competing hospitals in the local market. Furthermore, the results show that quality competition yields some inefficiency or waste, but much of it also meets the test of the market.

  11. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysismore » Protocol (MAAP) in this context.« less

  12. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  13. Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

    2017-12-01

    Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

  14. An econometric simulation model of income and electricity demand in Alaska's Railbelt, 1982-2022

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Maddigan, R.J.; Hill, L.J.; Hamblin, D.M.

    1987-01-01

    This report describes the specification of-and forecasts derived from-the Alaska Railbelt Electricity Load, Macroeconomic (ARELM) model. ARELM was developed as an independent, modeling tool for the evaluation of the need for power from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project which has been proposed by the Alaska Power Authority. ARELM is an econometric simulation model consisting of 61 equations - 46 behavioral equations and 15 identities. The system includes two components: (1) ARELM-MACRO which is a system of equations that simulates the performance of both the total Alaskan and Railbelt macroeconomies and (2) ARELM-LOAD which projects electricity-related activity in the Alaskan Railbelt region.more » The modeling system is block recursive in the sense that forecasts of population, personal income, and employment in the Railbelt derived from ARELM-MACRO are used as explanatory variables in ARELM-LOAD to simulate electricity demand, the real average price of electricity, and the number of customers in the Railbelt. Three scenarios based on assumptions about the future price of crude oil are simulated and documented in the report. The simulations, which do not include the cost-of-power impacts of Susitna-based generation, show that the growth rate in Railbelt electricity load is between 2.5 and 2.7% over the 1982 to 2022 forecast period. The forecasting results are consistent with other projections of load growth in the region using different modeling approaches.« less

  15. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Methods Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. Results For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Conclusions Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered. PMID:22413884

  16. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  17. Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

    PubMed

    Möser, Anke

    2010-08-01

    In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study).

    PubMed

    Waterlander, Wilma E; Blakely, Tony; Nghiem, Nhung; Cleghorn, Christine L; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Wilson, Nick; Jiang, Yannan; Swinburn, Boyd; Jacobi, Liana; Michie, Jo; Ni Mhurchu, Cliona

    2016-07-19

    There is a need for accurate and precise food price elasticities (PE, change in consumer demand in response to change in price) to better inform policy on health-related food taxes and subsidies. The Price Experiment and Modelling (Price ExaM) study aims to: I) derive accurate and precise food PE values; II) quantify the impact of price changes on quantity and quality of discrete food group purchases and; III) model the potential health and disease impacts of a range of food taxes and subsidies. To achieve this, we will use a novel method that includes a randomised Virtual Supermarket experiment and econometric methods. Findings will be applied in simulation models to estimate population health impact (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) using a multi-state life-table model. The study will consist of four sequential steps: 1. We generate 5000 price sets with random price variation for all 1412 Virtual Supermarket food and beverage products. Then we add systematic price variation for foods to simulate five taxes and subsidies: a fruit and vegetable subsidy and taxes on sugar, saturated fat, salt, and sugar-sweetened beverages. 2. Using an experimental design, 1000 adult New Zealand shoppers complete five household grocery shops in the Virtual Supermarket where they are randomly assigned to one of the 5000 price sets each time. 3. Output data (i.e., multiple observations of price configurations and purchased amounts) are used as inputs to econometric models (using Bayesian methods) to estimate accurate PE values. 4. A disease simulation model will be run with the new PE values as inputs to estimate QALYs gained and health costs saved for the five policy interventions. The Price ExaM study has the potential to enhance public health and economic disciplines by introducing internationally novel scientific methods to estimate accurate and precise food PE values. These values will be used to model the potential health and disease impacts of various food pricing policy

  19. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Refining cost-effectiveness analyses using the net benefit approach and econometric methods: an example from a trial of anti-depressant treatment.

    PubMed

    Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; McCrone, Paul; Kendricks, Antony

    2013-04-01

    Economic evaluation analyses can be enhanced by employing regression methods, allowing for the identification of important sub-groups and to adjust for imperfect randomisation in clinical trials or to analyse non-randomised data. To explore the benefits of combining regression techniques and the standard Bayesian approach to refine cost-effectiveness analyses using data from randomised clinical trials. Data from a randomised trial of anti-depressant treatment were analysed and a regression model was used to explore the factors that have an impact on the net benefit (NB) statistic with the aim of using these findings to adjust the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Exploratory sub-samples' analyses were carried out to explore possible differences in cost-effectiveness. Results The analysis found that having suffered a previous similar depression is strongly correlated with a lower NB, independent of the outcome measure or follow-up point. In patients with previous similar depression, adding an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) to supportive care for mild-to-moderate depression is probably cost-effective at the level used by the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to make recommendations. This analysis highlights the need for incorporation of econometric methods into cost-effectiveness analyses using the NB approach.

  1. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data.

    PubMed

    Li, Jia; Zhang, Ya; Ma, Ling; Liu, Xuan

    2016-10-28

    Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the "Superstar" effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. ©Jia Li, Ya Zhang, Ling Ma, Xuan Liu. Originally published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (http://www.jmir.org), 28.10.2016.

  2. The Impact of the Internet on Health Consultation Market Concentration: An Econometric Analysis of Secondary Data

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Background Many markets have traditionally been dominated by a few best-selling products, and this is also the case for the health care industry. However, we do not know whether the market will be more or less concentrated when health care services are delivered online (known as E-consultation), nor do we know how to reduce the concentration of the E-consultation market. Objective The aim of this study was to investigate the concentration of the E-consultation market and how to reduce its concentration through information disclosure mechanisms (online reputation and self-representation). Methods We employed a secondary data econometric analysis using transaction data obtained from an E-consultation Website (haodf.com) for three diseases (infantile pneumonia, diabetes, and pancreatic cancer) from 2008 to 2015. We included 2439 doctors in the analysis. Results The E-consultation market largely follows the 20/80 principle, namely that approximately 80% of orders are fulfilled by nearly 20% of doctors. This is much higher than the offline health care market. Meanwhile, the market served by doctors with strong online reputations (beta=0.207, P<.001) or strong online self-representation (beta=0.386, P<.001) is less concentrated. Conclusions When health care services are delivered online, the market will be more concentrated (known as the “Superstar” effect), indicating poor service efficiency for society as a whole. To reduce market concentration, E-consultation websites should provide important design elements such as ratings of doctors (user feedback), articles contributed by doctors, and free consultation services (online representation). A possible and important way to reduce the market concentration of the E-consultation market is to accumulate enough highly rated or highly self-represented doctors. PMID:27793793

  3. Risk-adjusted econometric model to estimate postoperative costs: an additional instrument for monitoring performance after major lung resection.

    PubMed

    Brunelli, Alessandro; Salati, Michele; Refai, Majed; Xiumé, Francesco; Rocco, Gaetano; Sabbatini, Armando

    2007-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a risk-adjusted model to estimate individual postoperative costs after major lung resection and to use it for internal economic audit. Variable and fixed hospital costs were collected for 679 consecutive patients who underwent major lung resection from January 2000 through October 2006 at our unit. Several preoperative variables were used to develop a risk-adjusted econometric model from all patients operated on during the period 2000 through 2003 by a stepwise multiple regression analysis (validated by bootstrap). The model was then used to estimate the postoperative costs in the patients operated on during the 3 subsequent periods (years 2004, 2005, and 2006). Observed and predicted costs were then compared within each period by the Wilcoxon signed rank test. Multiple regression and bootstrap analysis yielded the following model predicting postoperative cost: 11,078 + 1340.3X (age > 70 years) + 1927.8X cardiac comorbidity - 95X ppoFEV1%. No differences between predicted and observed costs were noted in the first 2 periods analyzed (year 2004, $6188.40 vs $6241.40, P = .3; year 2005, $6308.60 vs $6483.60, P = .4), whereas in the most recent period (2006) observed costs were significantly lower than the predicted ones ($3457.30 vs $6162.70, P < .0001). Greater precision in predicting outcome and costs after therapy may assist clinicians in the optimization of clinical pathways and allocation of resources. Our economic model may be used as a methodologic template for economic audit in our specialty and complement more traditional outcome measures in the assessment of performance.

  4. Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation

  5. Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

    PubMed

    Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

    2011-10-01

    Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

  6. Do health care workforce, population, and service provision significantly contribute to the total health expenditure? An econometric analysis of Serbia.

    PubMed

    Santric-Milicevic, M; Vasic, V; Terzic-Supic, Z

    2016-08-15

    In times of austerity, the availability of econometric health knowledge assists policy-makers in understanding and balancing health expenditure with health care plans within fiscal constraints. The objective of this study is to explore whether the health workforce supply of the public health care sector, population number, and utilization of inpatient care significantly contribute to total health expenditure. The dependent variable is the total health expenditure (THE) in Serbia from the years 2003 to 2011. The independent variables are the number of health workers employed in the public health care sector, population number, and inpatient care discharges per 100 population. The statistical analyses include the quadratic interpolation method, natural logarithm and differentiation, and multiple linear regression analyses. The level of significance is set at P < 0.05. The regression model captures 90 % of all variations of observed dependent variables (adjusted R square), and the model is significant (P < 0.001). Total health expenditure increased by 1.21 standard deviations, with an increase in health workforce growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Furthermore, this rate decreased by 1.12 standard deviations, with an increase in (negative) population growth rate by 1 standard deviation. Finally, the growth rate increased by 0.38 standard deviation, with an increase of the growth rate of inpatient care discharges per 100 population by 1 standard deviation (P < 0.001). Study results demonstrate that the government has been making an effort to control strongly health budget growth. Exploring causality relationships between health expenditure and health workforce is important for countries that are trying to consolidate their public health finances and achieve universal health coverage at the same time.

  7. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

  8. Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting for Small Municipal Governments.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    Management Audit Econometric Revenue Forecast Gap and Impact Analysis Deterministic Expenditure Forecast Municipal Forecasting Municipal Budget Formlto...together with a multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasting model for the City of Monterey, California. The Monterey model includes an econometric ...65 5 D. FORECAST BASED ON THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ------- 67 E. FORECAST BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS

  9. Legitimate Techniques for Improving the R-Square and Related Statistics of a Multiple Regression Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-01-01

    explanatory variable has been ommitted. Ramsey (1974) has developed a rather interesting test for detecting specification errors using estimates of the...Peter. (1979) A Guide to Econometrics , Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Ramsey , J.B. (1974), "Classical Model Selection Through Specification Error... Tests ," in P. Zarembka, Ed. Frontiers in Econometrics , New York: Academia Press. Theil, Henri. (1971), Principles of Econometrics , New York: John Wiley

  10. Estimating the Regional Economic Significance of Airports

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-09-01

    following three options for estimating induced impacts: the economic base model , an econometric model , and a regional input-output model . One approach to...limitations, however, the economic base model has been widely used for regional economic analysis. A second approach is to develop an econometric model of...analysis is the principal statistical tool used to estimate the economic relationships. Regional econometric models are capable of estimating a single

  11. Cost Effectiveness Trade-Offs in Software Support Environment Standardization.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-09-30

    IIIIIEEEIIIIIE MiII I U..2 2 ma MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART 911C FILE C y, o FINAL REPORT - September 30, 1986 G- TECHNION INTERNATIONAL, INC. Cost...Summary description of econometric model B-I C. Causal chain used as basis for model C-I D. Excerpts from [Wer185) D-1 LIST OF FIGURES S-1 USAF MCCR...Productivity cost drivers D-4 LIST OF TASL3$ I-1 Summary of Tangible Benefits in Econometric Equations 1-9 1-2 Summary of Tangible Costs in Econometric

  12. 78 FR 41161 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-07-09

    ... behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in... included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied... calculate daily margin requirements. OCC has proposed at this time to clear only OTC Options on the S&P 500...

  13. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  14. Technical Change in the North American Forestry Sector: A Review

    Treesearch

    Jeffery C. Stier; David N. Bengston

    1992-01-01

    Economists have examined the impact of technical change on the forest products sector using the historical, index number, and econometric approaches. This paper reviews econometric analyses of the rate and bias of technical change, examining functional form, factors included, and empirical results. Studies are classified as first- second-, or third-generation...

  15. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Treesearch

    David Lewis; Ralph Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  16. Patterns of Marine Corps Reserve Continuation Behavior: Pre- and Post-9/11

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-03-01

    to consider when studying reserve retention and very difficult to measure using multivariate econometric models, which rely solely on observational...chapter present an interesting supplement to standard economic theoretical perspectives commonly used in econometric analyses. Notably, the structural...relevant to this thesis. These factors contribute to the over- arching themes of job satisfaction and organizational commitment and therefore ultimately

  17. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  18. The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-02-20

    being integrated within MAT, including Granger causality. Granger causality tests whether a data series helps when predicting future values of another...relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. Granger, C. W. (1980). Testing ... testing dataset. This effort is described in Section 3.2. 3.1. Improvements in Granger Causality User Interface Various metrics of causality are

  19. Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s Causal Analysis After Haavelmo

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-11-01

    Econometric Analysis , Cambridge University Press, 477–490, 1995. Halpern, J. (1998). Axiomatizing causal reasoning. In Uncertainty in Artificial...Models, Structural Models and Econometric Policy Evaluation. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, 4779–4874. Heckman, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a...Reflections on Heckman and Pinto’s “Causal Analysis After Haavelmo” Judea Pearl University of California, Los Angeles Computer Science Department Los

  20. Time Series Modeling of Army Mission Command Communication Networks: An Event-Driven Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-06-01

    Lehmann, D. R. (1984). How advertising affects sales: Meta- analysis of econometric results. Journal of Marketing Research , 21, 65-74. Barabási, A. L...317-357. Leone, R. P. (1983). Modeling sales-advertising relationships: An integrated time series- econometric approach. Journal of Marketing ... Research , 20, 291-295. McGrath, J. E., & Kravitz, D. A. (1982). Group research. Annual Review of Psychology, 33, 195- 230. Monge, P. R., & Contractor

  1. Crime Pattern Analysis: A Spatial Frequent Pattern Mining Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-10

    econometrics. A companion to theoretical econometrics, pages 310-330, 1988. [5] L. Anselin, J. Cohen, D. Cook, W. Gorr, and G. Tita . Spatial analyses...52] G. Mohler, M. Short, P. Brantingham, F. Schoenberg, and G. Tita . Self-exciting point process modeling of crime. Journal of the American...Systems, 9:462, 2010. [69] M. Short, P. Brantingham, A. Bertozzi, and G. Tita . Dissipation and displacement of hotspots in reaction-diffusion models

  2. The Changing Balance: South and North Korean Capabilities for Long-Term Military Competition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1985-12-01

    econometric model. Ideally, a model should be estimated over one period and then tested over a different period. If one esti- mates and tests over the...unprecedented impending shift of political leadership from Kim II-Sung to his son, Kim Chong-Il. Section III summarizes an aggregative econometric ...model of the South Korean economy, which we have developed to test the effect on that economy of alternative South Korean military force postures and

  3. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variancemore » that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.« less

  4. Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-09-07

    Kadane, J. (1980), "Bayesian decision theory and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , eds...the random model and weighted least squares regression," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217...likelihood function. On the other hand, H. Jeffreys’s theory of hypothesis testing covers the most important situations in which the prior is not diffuse. See

  5. Billions of Dollars are Involved in Taxation of the Life Insurance Industry -- Some Corrections in the Law are Needed.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-09-17

    leading life companies, 1979 69 i A A TABLES 16 A comparative example of the reserve test Calculation 76 17 Comparative income tax burden of life...pp. 159-61. 2/J. David Cummins, An Econometric Model of the Life Insurance Sector of the U.S. Economy (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1975), p. 57...3/Cummins, Econometric Model, p. 44. 4/Fact Book 1979, p. 32. 23 decades earlier. 1/ This decline has been attributed to two sources. First, as

  6. A Theory of Bayesian Data Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-10-10

    and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. 20 Ramsey , eds., Academic Press, 245-268. Edwards, W...Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217. Hill, Bruce M., (1980c), Review of Specification Searches, by E...also Hill (1970a, 1975a) for earlier thoughts the subject with regard to tests of significance, and Smith.(1986). The Baesi theory of tests of

  7. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Mytton, Oliver T; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥25) and obese (≥30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180 000 (110 000 to 247 000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285 000 (201 000 to 364 000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180 000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults. PMID:24179043

  8. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study.

    PubMed

    Briggs, Adam D M; Mytton, Oliver T; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-10-31

    To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. United Kingdom. Adults aged 16 and over. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ≥ 25) and obese (≥ 30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ≥ 50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180,000 (110,000 to 247,000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285,000 (201,000 to 364,000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180,000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults.

  9. Allocation of Future Federal Airport and Airway Costs.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-12-01

    attributable to users are allocated among them based upon Ramsey Pricing which minimizes the distortion in aviation markets resulting from the allocation of...the years following 1992, the producers price Uindex projections made by Wharton Econometric Forecasting . Associates1 were employed. This latter set...and on econometric cost estimation techniques. These are Volumes 3 and 5 respectively. 68 A(A A11 I FSZK7_ ODi Id Lin <j< .99 C-4 x\\ M LL- < P7 Pi0

  10. IWR-MAIN Water Use Forecasting System. Version 5.1. User’s Manual and System Description

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-12-01

    Crosschecks for Input Data 1-68 11-1 Organization of the IWR-MAIN System H-8 11-2 Example of Econometric Demand Model 11-9 11-3 Example of Unit Use Coefficient...Unaccounted (entry does not affect default Loss and free service calculations) Y Conservation Data City Name: Test City USA Fl-Hetp, F2-return to monu, F4...socioeconomic data. 1-11 (1) Internal Growth Models The IWR-MAIN program contains a subroutine called GROWTH which uses econometric growth models based on

  11. Long-term US energy outlook

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Friesen, G.

    Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

  12. The Science of Science Policy: A Federal Research Roadmap

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-11-01

    and Atmospheric Administra on, h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ oa /climate/globalwarming.html#q4. T S S P : A F R R4 maintain the na on’s dominance...econometric studies, surveys, case studies, and retrospec ve analyses. Econometric studies include the macroeconomic growth models pioneered by Robert...R A W ha t a re th e be ha vi or al fo un da o ns o f i nn ov a- o n? U nd er st an di ng th e be ha vi or o f i nd iv id ua ls an d

  13. Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.

    1981-05-01

    An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.

  14. Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

    PubMed

    Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

    2012-11-01

    We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

  15. Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

    PubMed Central

    XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

    2016-01-01

    Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

  16. The effect of relationship status on health with dynamic health and persistent relationships.

    PubMed

    Kohn, Jennifer L; Averett, Susan L

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic evolution of health and persistent relationship status pose econometric challenges to disentangling the causal effect of relationships on health from the selection effect of health on relationship choice. Using a new econometric strategy we find that marriage is not universally better for health. Rather, cohabitation benefits the health of men and women over 45, being never married is no worse for health, and only divorce marginally harms the health of younger men. We find strong evidence that unobservable health-related factors can confound estimates. Our method can be applied to other research questions with dynamic dependent and multivariate endogenous variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. 77 FR 28607 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-15

    ... bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant...; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations...

  18. Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

    1982-04-01

    Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

  19. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  20. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  1. Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

    2006-01-01

    Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

  2. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs.

    PubMed

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-02-26

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973-2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals.The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs.In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading.

  3. Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

    2007-10-15

    In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

  4. Identifying economics' place amongst academic disciplines: a science or a social science?

    PubMed

    Hudson, John

    2017-01-01

    Different academic disciplines exhibit different styles, including styles in journal titles. Using data from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF) in the UK we are able to identify the stylistic trends of different disciplines using 155,552 journal titles across all disciplines. Cluster analysis is then used to group the different disciplines together. The resulting identification fits the social sciences, the sciences and the arts and humanities reasonably well. Economics overall, fits best with philosophy, but the linkage is weak. When we divided economics into papers published in theory, econometrics and the remaining journals, the first two link with mathematics and computer science, particularly econometrics, and thence the sciences. The rest of economics then links with business and thence the social sciences.

  5. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  6. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ..., statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and... following disciplines: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... technical expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

  7. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  8. On accommodating spatial interactions in a Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) of mixed types of dependent variables.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2015-12-01

    We develop an econometric framework for incorporating spatial dependence in integrated model systems of latent variables and multidimensional mixed data outcomes. The framework combines Bhats Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) with a spat...

  9. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...

  10. 78 FR 49276 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-13

    ...; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant candidates..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

  11. 75 FR 57807 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-22

    ... bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

  12. Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

    2018-05-01

    The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

  13. Development of Regional Power Sector Coal Fuel Costs (Prices) for the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Model

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) produces monthly projections of energy supply, demand, trade, and prices over a 13-24 month period. Every January, the forecast horizon is extended through December of the following year. The STEO model is an integrated system of econometric regression equations and identities that link data on the various components of the U.S. energy industry together in order to develop consistent forecasts. The regression equations are estimated and the STEO model is solved using the EViews 9.5 econometric software package from IHS Global Inc. The model consists of various modules specific to each energy resource. All modules provide projections for the United States, and some modules provide more detailed forecasts for different regions of the country.

  14. Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Saten

    2013-06-01

    This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

  15. Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

    2003-11-01

    Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

  16. Estimating Environmental Compliance Costs for Industry (1981)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The paper discusses the pros and cons of existing approaches to compliance cost estimation such as ex post survey estimation and ex ante estimation techniques (input cost accounting methods, engineering process models and, econometric models).

  17. 78 FR 63267 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of No Objection to...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-23

    ... the set of risk factors whose behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied volatilities for a range of tenors and in-the-money and out-of...

  18. Valuing Eastern Visibility: A Field Test of the Contingent Valuation Method (1993)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The report describes the Eastern visibility survey design in detail, presents the implementation of and data obtained from the surveys, provides summary statistics on the overall response and discusses the econometric techniques employed to value benefits.

  19. Lost Productivity in Stroke Survivors: An Econometrics Analysis.

    PubMed

    Vyas, Manav V; Hackam, Daniel G; Silver, Frank L; Laporte, Audrey; Kapral, Moira K

    2016-01-01

    Stroke leads to a substantial societal economic burden. Loss of productivity among stroke survivors is a significant contributor to the indirect costs associated with stroke. We aimed to characterize productivity and factors associated with employability in stroke survivors. We used the Canadian Community Health Survey 2011-2012 to identify stroke survivors and employment status. We used multivariable logistic models to determine the impact of stroke on employment and on factors associated with employability, and used Heckman models to estimate the effect of stroke on productivity (number of hours worked/week and hourly wages). We included data from 91,633 respondents between 18 and 70 years and identified 923 (1%) stroke survivors. Stroke survivors were less likely to be employed (adjusted OR 0.39, 95% CI 0.33-0.46) and had hourly wages 17.5% (95% CI 7.7-23.7) lower compared to the general population, although there was no association between work hours and being a stroke survivor. We found that factors like older age, not being married, and having medical comorbidities were associated with lower odds of employment in stroke survivors in our sample. Stroke survivors are less likely to be employed and they earn a lower hourly wage than the general population. Interventions such as dedicated vocational rehabilitation and policies targeting return to work could be considered to address this lost productivity among stroke survivors. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

  20. Applying econometrics to the carbon dioxide "control knob".

    PubMed

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a "feedback" from rising temperatures initially resulting only from "non-condensing" GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H(2)O]). However, this paper shows that "initial radiative forcing" is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H(2)O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective "control knob" as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010).

  1. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  2. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector hasmore » been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.« less

  3. Integrating transit and urban form : final report, December 2008.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2008-09-01

    This study develops an integrated behavioral model of transit patronage and urban form. Although herein focused on transit, the framework can be easily generalized to study other forms of travel. Advanced econometric methods are used to test specific...

  4. A statistical analysis of the effects of a uniform minimum drinking age

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1987-04-01

    This report examines the relationship between minimum drinking age (MDA) and : highway fatalities during the 1975-1985 period, when 35 states changed their : MDAs. An econometric model of fatalities involving the 18-20 year-old driver : normalized by...

  5. The effects of impact fees in urban form and congestion in Florida for period 4/1/2010 to 11/30/2011.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2011-11-01

    This study analyzes the effect of impact fees in urban form and congestion through a combination of methods including econometric analysis, GIS techniques, and interviews with planning officials. The results show that there is some evidence that impa...

  6. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ..., econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau... technical expertise from the following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics..., psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences, Information Technology, computing...

  7. Motor Vehicle Demand Models : Assessment of the State of the Art and Directions for Future Research

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1981-04-01

    The report provides an assessment of the current state of motor vehicle demand modeling. It includes a detailed evaluation of one leading large-scale econometric vehicle demand model, which is tested for both logical consistency and forecasting accur...

  8. The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

    2016-08-01

    The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

  9. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  10. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  11. Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1979-12-01

    An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

  12. Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

  13. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  14. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  15. A Framework for Restructuring the Military Retirement System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-07-01

    Associate Professor of Economics in the Social Sciences Department at West Point where he teaches econometrics and labor economics. His areas of...others worth considering, but each should be carefully benchmarked against our proposed framework. 25 ENDNOTES 1. Office of the Actuary , Statistical

  16. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  17. Eliminating Problems Caused by Multicollinearity: A Warning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Peter E.

    1982-01-01

    Explains why an econometric practice introduced by J.C. Soper cannot eliminate the problems caused by multicollinearity. The author suggests that it can be a useful technique in that it forces researchers to pay more attention to the specifications of their models. (AM)

  18. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  19. 77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-12-04

    ... gas wellhead price using a time-series econometric model, which incorporates data from historical... (DOE). ACTION: Notice of a discontinuation of series in the publication of natural gas wellhead prices... price series. Beginning in January 2013, EIA will discontinue publishing wellhead prices, and will begin...

  20. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  1. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  2. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  3. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  4. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

  5. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  6. The Ontology of Science Teaching in the Neoliberal Era

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Ajay

    2017-01-01

    Because of ever stricter standards of accountability, science teachers are under an increasing and unrelenting pressure to demonstrate the effects of their teaching on student learning. Econometric perspectives of "teacher quality" have become normative in assessment of teachers' work for accountability purposes. These perspectives seek…

  7. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  8. Analytic Methods for Adjusting Subjective Rating Schemes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Richard V. L.; Nelson, Gary R.

    Statistical and econometric techniques of correcting for supervisor bias in models of individual performance appraisal were developed, using a variant of the classical linear regression model. Location bias occurs when individual performance is systematically overestimated or underestimated, while scale bias results when raters either exaggerate…

  9. The Determinants of College Student Retention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guerrero, Adam A.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…

  10. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  11. Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Larson S. W. M.

    2011-01-01

    The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

  12. Examining the Earnings Trajectories of Community College Students Using a Piecewise Growth Curve Modeling Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jaggars, Shanna Smith; Xu, Di

    2016-01-01

    Policymakers have become increasingly concerned with measuring--and holding colleges accountable for--students' labor market outcomes. In this article we introduce a piecewise growth curve approach to analyzing community college students' labor market outcomes, and we discuss how this approach differs from two popular econometric approaches:…

  13. Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

  14. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  15. An Econommetric Analysis of the U.S. Hardboard Market

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model of U.S. hardboard consumption was developed to identify the major variables affecting hardboard consumption and price. The variables identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, hardwood plywood price, productivity, pulpwood and residue price, hardboard tariff, and power cost, Disposable personal...

  16. Evaluating the Flipped Classroom: A Randomized Controlled Trial

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wozny, Nathan; Balser, Cary; Ives, Drew

    2018-01-01

    Despite recent interest in flipped classrooms, rigorous research evaluating their effectiveness is sparse. In this study, the authors implement a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of a flipped classroom technique relative to a traditional lecture in an introductory undergraduate econometrics course. Random assignment enables the…

  17. Demand for health care in Denmark: results of a national sample survey using contingent valuation.

    PubMed

    Gyldmark, M; Morrison, G C

    2001-10-01

    In this paper we use willingness to pay (WTP) to elicit values for private insurance covering treatment for four different health problems. By way of obtaining these values, we test the viability of the contingent valuation method (CVM) and econometric techniques, respectively, as means of eliciting and analysing values from the general public. WTP responses from a Danish national sample survey, which was designed in accordance with existing guidelines, are analysed in terms of consistency and validity checks. Large numbers of zero responses are common in WTP studies, and are found here; therefore, the Heckman selectivity model and log-transformed OLS are employed. The selectivity model is rejected, but test results indicate that the lognormal model yields efficient and unbiased estimates. The results give confidence in the WTP estimates obtained and, more generally, in CVM as a means of valuing publicly provided goods and in econometrics as a tool for analysing WTP results containing many zero responses.

  18. Projected electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company. Volume 1

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Estomin, S.; Kahal, M.

    1984-03-01

    This three-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) through the year 2002. Volume I describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations, the forecast assumptions and the calculated forecasts of peak demand and energy usage. Separate sets of models were developed for the Maryland Suburbs (Montgomery and Prince George's counties), the District of Columbia and Southern Maryland (served by a wholesale customer of PEPCO). For each of the three jurisdictions, energy equations were estimated for residential and commercial/industrial customers for both summer and wintermore » seasons. For the District of Columbia, summer and winter equations for energy sales to the federal government were also estimated. Equations were also estimated for street lighting and energy losses. Noneconometric techniques were employed to forecast energy sales to the Northern Virginia suburbs, Metrorail and federal government facilities located in Maryland.« less

  19. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  20. Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

    PubMed

    Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

    2013-01-01

    Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data.

  1. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  2. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country.

  3. Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

    2009-02-01

    This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

  4. Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

    2017-12-01

    The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

  5. Does Peer Ability Affect Student Achievement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A.; Kain, John F.; Markman, Jacob M.; Rivkin, Steven G.

    Empirical analysis of peer effects on student achievement has been open to question because of the difficulties of separating peer effects from other confounding influences. While most econometric attention has been directed at issues of simultaneous determination of peer interactions, this paper argues that issues of omitted and mismeasured…

  6. A Panel Analysis of Student Mathematics Achievement in the US in the 1990s: Does Increasing the Amount of Time in Learning Activities Affect Math Achievement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aksoy, Tevfik; Link, Charles R.

    2000-01-01

    Uses panel estimation techniques to estimate econometric models of mathematics achievement determinants for a nationally representative sample of high-school students. Extra time spent on math homework increases test scores; an extra hour of TV viewing negatively affects scores. Longer math periods also help. (Contains 56 references.) (MLH)

  7. Gaming via Computer Simulation Techniques for Junior College Economics Education. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Fred A.

    A study designed to answer the need for more attractive and effective economics education involved the teaching of one junior college economics class by the conventional (lecture) method and an experimental class by computer simulation techniques. Econometric models approximating the "real world" were computer programed to enable the experimental…

  8. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  9. The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2009-01-01

    Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…

  10. Schools and Labor Market Outcomes. EQW Working Papers WP33.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, David L.; And Others

    The relationship between school characteristics and labor market outcomes was examined through a literature review and an econometric analysis of the effects of various characteristics of the schooling experience on students' labor market performance after high school. Data from the National Center on Education Statistics' longitudinal survey of…

  11. School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

    2007-01-01

    Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

  12. Energy Conservation for Low-Income Households: The Evaporative Cooler Experience.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ridge, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    An econometric analysis, using a research design based on the nonequivalent control group (NECG), assessed the effectiveness of a program offering free evaporative coolers to low-income families owning air conditioners. The NECG controls for serious threats to internal validity, except for self-selection. The program successfully reduced energy…

  13. Revisiting the Principle of Relative Constancy: Consumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dupagne, Michel; Green, R. Jeffery

    1996-01-01

    Proposes two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). Reports on regression and cointegration analyses conducted with Belgian mass media expenditure data from 1953-91. Suggests that alternative mass media expenditure models should be developed because PRC lacks of economic foundation and sound empirical…

  14. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this…

  15. Estimated Effects of Retirement Revision on Retention of Navy Tactical Pilots.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-12-01

    detailed explanation of the procedure and proofs can be found in Hanushek and Jackson [Ref. 441. S511 ,V. 󈧈 VI. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS A. DESCRIPTIVE...Introduction to Econometrics, pp. 242-243, Prentice-Hall, 1978. 44. Hanushek Eric ard Jackson, John, Statistical .Mlethods for Social Scientists, p. S188

  16. David Keyser | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    . Areas of Expertise Economic impact studies Time series analysis Analysis of labor and demographic data Research Interests Static and dynamic economic impact models Labor data estimation Econometric modeling and 2030: A Strategic Roadmap for American Energy Innovation, Economic Growth, and Competitiveness."

  17. Teaching Students with Visual Impairments in an Inclusive Educational Setting: A Case from Nepal

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamichhane, Kamal

    2017-01-01

    Using the data set from teachers and students and utilising both qualitative and quantitative techniques for analysis, I discuss teaching style considerations in Nepal's mainstream schools for students with visual impairments. Results of the econometric analysis show that teachers' years of schooling, teaching experience, and using blackboard were…

  18. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  19. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  20. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  1. The Dynamics of Online User Behavior and IS Policy Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Keehyung

    2016-01-01

    This dissertation, which comprises three independent essays, explores the dynamics of online user behavior and provides IS policy implications across three different applications. The first essay employs an econometric empirical analysis to examine the role of IT interventions on online users' gambling behavior, based on field data collected over…

  2. Energy Models and the Policy Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Man, Reinier

    1983-01-01

    Describes the function of econometric and technological models in the policy process, and shows how different positions in the Dutch energy discussion are reflected by the application of different model methodologies. Discussion includes the energy policy context, a conceptual framework for using energy models, and energy scenarios in policy…

  3. Web-based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chizmar, John F.; Walbert, Mark S.

    1999-01-01

    Describes the preparation and execution of a statistics course, an undergraduate econometrics course, and a microeconomic theory course that all utilize Internet technology. Reviews seven principles of teaching practice in order to demonstrate how to enhance the quality of student learning using Web technologies. Includes reactions by Steve Hurd…

  4. The Insulation Board Industry - An Economic Analysis

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model of the domestic insulation board industry was developed to identify and quantify the major factors affecting quantity consumed and price. The factors identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, productivity, pulpwood and residue prices, and power costs. Disposable personal income was the most...

  5. Female-Male Earnings Differentials and Occupational Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Terrell, Katherine

    1992-01-01

    A review of econometric literature on female-male wage differences and asymmetrical distribution in occupations shows that differences in returns to human capital (i.e., discrimination) explains far more of the wage gap than differences in education and experience. Crowding of women into few occupations depresses wages. (SK)

  6. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  7. Household Schooling Decisions in Rural Pakistan. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sawada, Yasuyuki; Lokshin, Michael

    A study of household schooling decisions in rural Pakistan found serious supply-side constraints on female primary education in the villages studied. Field surveys of 25 Pakistani villages were integrated with economic theory and econometric analysis to investigate the sequential nature of educational decisions. The full-information maximum…

  8. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  9. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  10. The Determinants of Girls' Educational Enrollment in Ghana. Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Rebecca; Kyle, Steven

    This study examined the determinants of school enrollment in Ghana, considering historical and social information to formulate an econometric model of school enrollment patterns for households. Data came from a 1989 survey of households in Ghana. The survey collected basic information about community characteristics, health and school facilities,…

  11. The Effect of Income Taxation on Labor Supply in the United States.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Triest, Robert K.

    1990-01-01

    A study used an econometric model to examine the effect of income taxation on labor supply of married women and men. Male labor supply was found to be relatively invariant to income. Impact on married women depended upon the method used to estimate the labor supply function. (SK)

  12. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  13. Measuring Systematic Long-Term Trajectories of School Effectiveness Improvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Valenzuela, Juan Pablo; Bellei, Cristián; Allende, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    The objective of this study was to identify trajectories of school improvement experienced by Chilean elementary schools over the last decade. Using econometric analysis and controlling for potential confounding factors, we created an index of school performance combining outcome indicators focused on different school dimensions, and estimated the…

  14. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert M.; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  15. A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

    Treesearch

    Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

  16. Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control Knob”

    PubMed Central

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a “feedback” from rising temperatures initially resulting only from “non-condensing” GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H2O]). However, this paper shows that “initial radiative forcing” is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H2O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective “control knob” as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010). PMID:22629196

  17. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It combines the methodological approaches of the literature on program evaluation, data combination and forecasting to develop estimators of the average treatment effects. This exercise allows a more complete cost-benefit evaluation of social programs accounting for benefits over the whole life cycle.

  18. Fertility decisions and desires in Bangladesh: an econometric investigation.

    PubMed

    Sirageldin, I; Khan, M A; Shah, F; Ariturk, A

    1976-07-01

    2 models are developed to examine fertility behavior in Bangladesh. The 1st model deals with the total number of ever-born children to a couple; the 2nd examines sequential decisions that characterize the desire for an additional child. The "Chicago-Columbia" or "New Home Economics" approach is used, but to the usual economic variables are added sociological and demographic variables; and fertility is examined in relation to the prices of child services consumed as well as a valuation of the mother's time. The data for the study were drawn from a sample of 3088 currently married women respondents to the 1968/69 Impact Survey (an extended KAP survey). The model for completed family size uses 4 endogenous variables: total live births, number of dead children, current income, and female labor force participation; these are examined in terms of 14 exogenous variables, including property ownership, age, literacy, awareness of family planning, rural vs urban, type of family, size of family, and schooling. The model is built on 4 equations with parameters estimated by 2-stage least squares technic and then subjected to multivariate analysis. The model for demand for additional children added 5 exogenous variables including sex of children, desire for children, and perceived need for education of children. This model was examined using standard probit analysis. Interpretation of the 2 models showed that 1) Income was positively related to completed family size but has no effect on desire for additional children; 2) female education, female employment, and cost of fertility control had no effect in either model; 3) Age at marriage had a positive effect on completed family size but none on desire for additional children; 4) Urban women had more live births, but rural women were more likely to want additional children; 5) Sex preference for boys is intense in Bangladesh. The study concludes that: 1) Economic well-being effects fertility; 2) The more adequate couples consider their income, the more likely they are to want more children; 3) Female education and employment have no effect on either completed family size or desire for more children; 4) There are no clear effects of family planning programs on either; and 5) desire for more children decreases as the number of children, particularly sons, increases.

  19. An Econometric Model of Healthcare Demand With Nonlinear Pricing.

    PubMed

    Kunz, Johannes S; Winkelmann, Rainer

    2017-06-01

    From 2004 to 2012, the German social health insurance levied a co-payment for the first doctor visit in a calendar quarter. We develop a new model for estimating the effect of such a co-payment on the individual number of visits per quarter. The model combines a one-time increase in the otherwise constant hazard rate determining the timing of doctor visits with a difference-in-differences strategy to identify the reform effect. An extended version of the model accounts for a mismatch between reporting period and calendar quarter. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, we do not find an effect of the co-payment on demand for doctor visits. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Hierarchical Architectural Considerations in Econometric Modeling of Manufacturing Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-06-01

    behavioral factors must also be considered. A proposed economic model, to be aligned with ICAM program intentions, should be generic and have the... relevant to the effort and to identify contractors, if any, involved in economic model development. Due to the nature of involvement of other con...tractors with the ICAM program office, information which was thought relevant to the initiation of the current effort was in a lag-time and was

  1. A Note on Verification of Computer Simulation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aigner, Dennis J.

    1972-01-01

    Establishes an argument that questions the validity of one test'' of goodness-of-fit (the extent to which a series of obtained measures agrees with a series of theoretical measures) for the simulated time path of a simple endogenous (internally developed) variable in a simultaneous, perhaps dynamic econometric model. (Author)

  2. The Case of Effort Variables in Student Performance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Mary O.; And Others

    1989-01-01

    Tests the existence of a structural shift between above- and below-average students in the econometric models that explain students' grades in principles of economics classes. Identifies a structural shift and estimates separate models for above- and below-average students. Concludes that separate models as well as educational policies are…

  3. The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

    Treesearch

    Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

  4. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  5. Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

    Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

  6. Spatial analysis of rural land development

    Treesearch

    Seong-Hoon Cho; David H. Newman

    2005-01-01

    This article examines patterns of rural land development and density using spatial econometric models with the application of Geographical Information System (GIS). The cluster patterns of both development and high-density development indicate that the spatially continuous expansions of development and high-density development exist in relatively remote rural areas....

  7. National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators: a supporting technical document for the 1999 RPA assessment.

    Treesearch

    John Hof; Curtis Flather; Tony Baltic; Stephen Davies

    1999-01-01

    The 1999 forest and rangeland condition indicator model is a set of independent econometric production functions for environmental outputs (measured with condition indicators) at the national scale. This report documents the development of the database and the statistical estimation required by this particular production structure with emphasis on two special...

  8. Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

    2010-01-01

    Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

  9. A Transactions Cost Economics Approach to Defense Acquisition Management

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-12-30

    A path-breaking econometric study (Masten et al., 1991) based on the procurement of components and services by a large naval shipbuilder indicates...philosophy with four formal levels of hierarchical IPTs—from project-level working groups to over- arching OSD-level “teams.” Key in the IPT concept is

  10. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  11. Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

    2011-01-01

    The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

  12. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  13. Natural amenities and rural population migration: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

    Treesearch

    H. Ken Cordell; Vahé Heboyan; Florence Santos; John C. Bergstrom

    2011-01-01

    Research has suggested that significant relationships exist between rural population change and natural amenities. Thus, understanding and predicting domestic migration trends as a function of changes in natural amenities is important for effective regional growth and development policies and strategies. In this study, we first estimated an econometric model which...

  14. Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

    Treesearch

    Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

    1988-01-01

    Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

  15. The Determinants of Academic Performance of under Graduate Students: In the Case of Arba Minch University Chamo Campus

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yigermal, Moges Endalamaw

    2017-01-01

    The main objective of the paper is to investigate the determinant factors affecting the academic performance of regular undergraduate students of Arba Minch university (AMU) chamo campus students. To meet the objective, the Pearson product moment correlation statistical tool and econometrics data analysis (OLS regression) method were used with the…

  16. The Ph.D. Production Function: The Case at Berkeley.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Breneman, David W.

    This report analyzes departmental variations in time to degree and attrition in Ph.D. programs at Berkeley. An alternative hypothesis, the Ph.D. production function, is examined by cross-section econometric analysis of 28 departments. The inputs included in the production function were student variables--quality and percent males; faculty…

  17. Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

    1982-04-01

    Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

  18. Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Andrew; And Others

    The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

  19. Advance to and Persistence in Graduate School: Identifying the Influential Factors and Major-Based Differences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2014-01-01

    Structured within an expanded econometric theoretical framework, this study uses national data sources to identify the critical factors that influence college graduates' advance to and persistence in graduate education and to compare the systematic differences between students in the STEM and non-STEM majors. The findings indicate that there is a…

  20. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  1. Child Care and the Labor Supply of Married Women: Reduced Form Evidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ribar, David C.

    1992-01-01

    With data from the Survey of Income Program Participation, a three-equation, reduced-form econometric model is used to generate estimates revealing that the cost of market child care decreases the labor force participation of married women. High wages increase likelihood of working and use of paid child care. (SK)

  2. VISUAL-SEVEIF, a tool for integrating fire behavior simulation and economic evaluation of the impact of Wildfires

    Treesearch

    Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Juan Ramón Molina Martínez; Miguel Ángel Herrera Machuca; Jesús Mª Rodríguez Leal

    2013-01-01

    Progress made in recent years in fire science, particularly as applied to forest fire protection, coupled with the increased power offered by mathematical processors integrated into computers, has led to important developments in the field of dynamic and static simulation of forest fires. Furthermore, and similarly, econometric models applied to economic...

  3. Economics of Job Search: A Biracial Analysis of Job Search Behavior of Urban Male Youth Ages 18-22.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephenson, Stanley P., Jr.

    This study presents and tests an econometric model of job search behavior for youth. The main hypothesis is that differences in search behavior help account for youth-adult employment differences and that within the youth group, black-white unemployment and earnings differentials can be partially explained by job search behavior. Endogenous…

  4. An examination of the relationships between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in Ohio

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John E. Baumgras

    1998-01-01

    Understanding the relationship between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices is critical in evaluating market efficiency and in understanding the potential impact of changing technology on stumpage markets. Unfortunately, the complexity of the hardwood lumber market and lack of reliable data make it difficult to evaluate this relationship using traditional econometric...

  5. Gender and Migration Background in Intergenerational Educational Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schneebaum, Alyssa; Rumplmaier, Bernhard; Altzinger, Wilfried

    2016-01-01

    We employ 2011 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey data for Austria to perform uni- and multivariate econometric analyses to study the role of gender and migration background (MB) in intergenerational educational mobility. We find that there is more persistence in the educational attainment of girls relative to their…

  6. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2010-01-01

    The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

  7. Faith Schools, Social Capital and Academic Attainment: Evidence from TIMSS-R Mathematics Scores in Flemish Secondary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pugh, Geoff; Telhaj, Shqiponje

    2008-01-01

    Social capital theory, recent developments in the theory of identity and a small econometric literature all suggest positive attainment effects from faith schooling. To test this hypothesis, the authors use a unique data set on Flemish secondary school students from the 1999 repeat of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study to…

  8. School District Leave Policies, Teacher Absenteeism, and Student Achievement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Econometric analysis of data from over 700 New York state school districts found that (1) policies governing use of teacher leave days clearly influence their use; (2) higher student absenteeism correlated with poorer test performance; and (3) teacher absence was not largely associated with student test performance. Changes in leave policy were…

  9. The Effect of School Size on Exam Performance in Secondary Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bradley, Steve; Taylor, Jim

    1998-01-01

    Examines the effects of school size on exam performance for pupils in their final year of compulsory education in England. Background information about English secondary schools and the determinants of exam performance are discussed along with a description of the variables used in the econometric analysis and their expected effects on exam…

  10. Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mangan, Jean; Pugh, Geoff; Gray, John

    2005-01-01

    The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement…

  11. From Data to Bonuses: A Case Study of the Issues Related to Awarding Teachers Pay on the Basis of Their Students' Progress. Working Paper 2008-14

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaffrey, Daniel F.; Han, Bing; Lockwood, J. R.

    2008-01-01

    A key component to the new wave of performance-based pay initiatives is the use of student achievement data to evaluate teacher performance. As greater amounts of student achievement data are being collected, researchers have been developing and applying innovative statistical and econometric models to longitudinal data to develop measures of an…

  12. School Cost Functions: A Meta-Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colegrave, Andrew D.; Giles, Margaret J.

    2008-01-01

    The education cost literature includes econometric studies attempting to determine economies of scale, or estimate an optimal school or district size. Not only do their results differ, but the studies use dissimilar data, techniques, and models. To derive value from these studies requires that the estimates be made comparable. One method to do…

  13. Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

  14. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26 Section 3050.26 Postal Service POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION PERSONNEL PERIODIC REPORTING § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric...

  15. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco: Can the Government Improve Outcomes? World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 264.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others

    This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…

  16. Resources and Constraints: Public Education and the Economic Environment in Ontario, 1978-1987.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foot, David K.

    Considering the national and provincial economic environments for the next decade, this paper projects financial resources and constraints likely to be faced by school boards in Ontario over the same period. The study utilizes an econometric model developed by the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of Toronto. The findings indicate…

  17. IDA 2004 Cost Research Symposium: Investments in, Use of, and Management of Cost Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-09-01

    Database: None Publication: Technical Report Keywords: Government, Aircraft, SD&D, Production, Integration, Data Collection, Database, CER B- 71 ... Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia,” IDA Paper P-3590, July 2001 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Raytheon Plant in...NAVSEA) ............................................................ B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD

  18. An Investigation of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for Modeling and Analysis of Univariate and Semi-Multivariate Time Series Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-09-01

    However, there is no guarantee that this would work; for instance if the data were generated by an ARCH model (Tong, 1990 pp. 116-117) then a simple...Hill, R., Griffiths, W., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T., Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 2th ed., Wiley, 1985. Kendall, M., Stuart

  19. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  20. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  1. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  2. Size-biased distributions in the generalized beta distribution family, with applications to forestry

    Treesearch

    Mark J. Ducey; Jeffrey H. Gove

    2015-01-01

    Size-biased distributions arise in many forestry applications, as well as other environmental, econometric, and biomedical sampling problems. We examine the size-biased versions of the generalized beta of the first kind, generalized beta of the second kind and generalized gamma distributions. These distributions include, as special cases, the Dagum (Burr Type III),...

  3. Determining How Tertiary Education and Human Capital Formation Influenced Economic Expansion in Israel, Japan, and Norway from 2000-2010

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kalkbrenner, Erin Lee

    2014-01-01

    Researchers have calculated the relationship between human capital development and economic output by various means of econometric modeling and by use of numerous indicators under the context of an assortment of human capital theory. This study was conducted to identify new interpretations of the expansion of human capital in the form of tertiary…

  4. Infrastructure in the 21st Century Economy: A Review of the Issues and Outline of a Study of the Impacts of Federal Infrastructure Investments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1993-07-01

    future effects since future technologies like MAGLEV haven’t transpired yet. IV. Panel Question and Answers Nadiri: Let me make two points. First, this...towards Medicare or infrastructure and then within that MAGLEV or fiber optics, but the econometrics is so loose on this that we can’t really say much

  5. Space-time modeling of timber prices

    Treesearch

    Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

    2006-01-01

    A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

  6. Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

  7. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  8. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  9. Altruism in the "Market" for Giving and Receiving: A Case of Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yoo, Jang H.; Harrison, William B.

    1989-01-01

    Examines donations to colleges as an outcome of simultaneously solving supply and demand functions. Donors demand attention and prestige supplied by college fund raisers. Using data from 13 colleges, this econometric study shows that the demand side has a unitary elasticity concerning per person donations, while the supply side seems inelastic.…

  10. 78 FR 29258 - Blueberry Promotion, Research and Information Order; Assessment Rate Increase

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-20

    .... \\6\\ The econometric model used statistical methods with time series data to measure how strongly the... program has been over 15 times greater than the costs. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the supply... times greater than the costs. Given the wide range of supply responses considered in the analysis, and...

  11. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  12. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  13. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  14. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  15. 10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

  16. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    The potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services is addressed in detail in this final research report. Econometric modeling and analyses of economic activity within the health sector were undertaken. An eight equation model of the hospital and physician sectors…

  17. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  18. Industrial companies' demand for energy based on a micro panel database -- Effects of CO{sub 2} taxation and agreements on energy savings

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bjoerner, T.B.; Togeby, M.

    1999-07-01

    An econometric panel data analysis of industrial demand for electricity and energy is presented. In the panel energy consumption, production and value added are observed at company level. The authors estimate price and production elasticities for electricity and total energy (i.e. measuring the X per cent change in demand of say electricity of a one per cent increase in the price of electricity). The estimated price and production elasticities are allowed to vary according to company characteristics such as industrial sub-sector, company size, energy intensity and type of ownership. Most previous econometric studies on industrial energy demand use aggregate data,more » while a couple of micro level studies mainly employ cross-section analysis. To the knowledge this is only the second econometric study on industrial energy demand based on a large micro panel database. More than 2,700 Danish industrial companies during the period 1983 to 1995 are included in the model (covering the majority of all Danish industrial energy consumption). One advantage of micro data is that these data can be used to estimate the effect of an instrument like voluntary energy agreements. By entering a voluntary energy agreement a Danish company avoids paying the usual CO{sub 2} tax. Preliminary analyses suggest that there is a large positive gross reduction of electricity and total energy consumption of companies with energy agreements. However, the authors also find that companies would have had about the same reduction in electricity consumption if they had not entered into an agreement, but instead paid the full CO{sub 2} tax. Thus, the analysis suggests that the net effect on electricity use of the voluntary energy agreements is very low (perhaps even negative).« less

  19. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  20. Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

  1. Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jeffery H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

  2. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  3. Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buda, Rodolphe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

  4. Lessons in Reading Reform: Finding What Works. Technical Appendix

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betts, Julian R.; Zau, Andrew C.; Koedel, Cory

    2010-01-01

    This technical appendix provides more detail on the reading reforms implemented under the Blueprint for Student Success project in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) between 2000 and 2005. It provides details on the dataset, the econometric methods the authors employed, and the results, which are also detailed and discussed in the main…

  5. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  6. Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boal, William M.

    1990-01-01

    This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

  7. Dynamic learning and context-dependence in sequential, attribute-based, stated-preference valuation questions

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; Kevin J. Boyle

    2005-01-01

    A hybrid stated-preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes. A sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail-back format. Econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence, and the...

  8. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  9. Decisions That Affect Outcomes in the Distant Future.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-12-01

    cost-he.n- efit analysis is a special case of the results lerived in this rvso arch . %; In Chapter 3, the assumptions underlying willingness to pay are...p°,m°,z°). This information would generally cone from ex- perts or econometric studies. 5.5 Consistency Conditions There are two ways in which we

  10. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  11. The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

    It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

  12. Class-Size Effects on Adolescents' Mental Health and Well-Being in Swedish Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jakobsson, Niklas; Persson, Mattias; Svensson, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes whether class size has an effect on the prevalence of mental health problems and well-being among adolescents in Swedish schools. We use cross-sectional data collected in year 2008 covering 2755 Swedish adolescents in ninth grade from 40 schools and 159 classes. We utilize different econometric approaches to address potential…

  13. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  14. Effects of land use change on soil carbon cycling in the conterminous United States from 1900 to 2050

    Treesearch

    Peter B. Woodbury; Linda S. Heath; James E. Smith

    2007-01-01

    We developed matrices representing historical area transitions between forest and other land uses. We projected future transitions on the basis of historical transitions and econometric model results. These matrices were used to drive a model of changes in soil and forest floor carbon stocks. Our model predicted net carbon emission from 1900 until 1982, then...

  15. Be as Careful of the Company You Keep as of the Books You Read: Peer Effects in Education and on the Labor Market. NBER Working Paper No. 14948

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Pellizzari, Michele; Redaelli, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether peers' behavior influences the choice of college major, thus contributing to the mismatch of skills in the labor market. Using a newly constructed dataset, we are able to identify the endogenous effect of peers on such decisions through a novel identification strategy that solves the common econometric problems…

  16. Resource Allocation in Public Research Universities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Santos, Jose L.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of internal resource allocation. Two theories are used for this study of resource allocation in public research universities, and these are: (1) Theory of the Firm; and (2) Resource Dependence Theory. This study used the American Association of Universities Data Exchange (AAUDE)…

  17. The Effect of Training on Productivity: The Transfer of On-the-Job Training from the Perspective of Economics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Grip, Andries; Sauermann, Jan

    2013-01-01

    Although the transfer of on-the-job training to the workplace belongs to the realm of educational research, it is also highly related to labour economics. In the economic literature, the transfer of training is based on the theoretical framework of human capital theory and has been extensively analysed empirically in econometric studies that take…

  18. Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

    Treesearch

    Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

    2010-01-01

    We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

  19. Model Study for an Economic Data Program on the Conditions of Arts and Cultural Institutions. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deane, Robert T.; And Others

    The development of econometric models and a data base to predict the responsiveness of arts institutions to changes in the economy is reported. The study focused on models for museums, theaters (profit and non-profit), symphony, ballet, opera, and dance. The report details four objectives of the project: to identify useful databases and studies on…

  20. 78 FR 59775 - Blueberry Promotion, Research and Information Order; Assessment Rate Increase

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-30

    ... demand. \\6\\ The econometric model used statistical methods with time series data to measure how strongly... been over 15 times greater than the costs. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the supply response, the average BCR was computed to be 5.36, implying that the benefits of the USHBC were over five times...

  1. The Search for Equity in School Finance: Michigan School District Response to a Guaranteed Tax Base.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Park, Rolla Edward; Carroll, Stephen J.

    Part of a three-volume report on the effects of school finance reform, this volume examines the effects of reform on Michigan school districts' budgets from 1971 to 1976. Econometric models were used. Researchers found a very small "price" effect--an elasticity of -.02. The data provide no evidence that state matching grants stimulate…

  2. Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

  3. Heterogeneous autoregressive model with structural break using nearest neighbor truncation volatility estimators for DAX.

    PubMed

    Chin, Wen Cheong; Lee, Min Cherng; Yap, Grace Lee Ching

    2016-01-01

    High frequency financial data modelling has become one of the important research areas in the field of financial econometrics. However, the possible structural break in volatile financial time series often trigger inconsistency issue in volatility estimation. In this study, we propose a structural break heavy-tailed heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) volatility econometric model with the enhancement of jump-robust estimators. The breakpoints in the volatility are captured by dummy variables after the detection by Bai-Perron sequential multi breakpoints procedure. In order to further deal with possible abrupt jump in the volatility, the jump-robust volatility estimators are composed by using the nearest neighbor truncation approach, namely the minimum and median realized volatility. Under the structural break improvements in both the models and volatility estimators, the empirical findings show that the modified HAR model provides the best performing in-sample and out-of-sample forecast evaluations as compared with the standard HAR models. Accurate volatility forecasts have direct influential to the application of risk management and investment portfolio analysis.

  4. Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

    2008-06-01

    Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

  5. Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

    PubMed

    Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-30

    Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.

  6. Energy risk in the arbitrage pricing model: an empirical and theoretical study

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bremer, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    This dissertation empirically explores the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the context of energy risk for securities over the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Starting from a general multifactor pricing model, the paper develops a two factor model based on a market-like factor and an energy factor. This model is then tested on portfolios of securities grouped according to industrial classification using several econometric techniques designed to overcome some of the more serious estimation problems common to these models. The paper concludes that energy risk is priced in the 1970s and possibly even in the 1960s. Energy risk is found tomore » be priced in the sense that investors who hold assets subjected to energy risk are paid for this risk. The classic version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model which posits the market as the single priced factor is rejected in favor of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or multi-beta versions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces some original econometric methodology to carry out empirical tests.« less

  7. Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

    PubMed

    Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2016-02-01

    This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Perceived and measured stigma among workers with serious mental illness.

    PubMed

    Baldwin, Marjorie L; Marcus, Steven C

    2006-03-01

    This research analyzed the extent to which self-reports of job-related discrimination by persons with serious mental illness are associated with econometric measures of discrimination. Data were from the 1994-1995 National Health Interview Survey-Disability Supplement. Data for workers with mood, psychotic, or anxiety disorders (N=1,139) were compared with data for those without such disorders (N=66,341). The main outcome measures were self-reports of wages and stigmatizing experiences in the workplace. After the analyses controlled for functional limitations and job characteristics, no significant difference in mean wages was found between workers with serious mental illness who did not report experiencing stigma and those with no mental illness. In contrast, for all types of mental disorders examined, mean wages for workers with serious mental illness who reported experiencing stigma were significantly lower than mean wages for those with no mental illness. Workers' self-reports of stigmatizing experiences in the labor market appear to be consistent with econometric measures of the effect of stigma on wages, suggesting that workers know when they are being discriminated against.

  9. Ranking product aspects through sentiment analysis of online reviews

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Wei; Wang, Hongwei; Song, Yuan

    2017-03-01

    The electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) is one of the most important among all the factors affecting consumers' behaviours. Opinions towards a product through online reviews will influence purchase decisions of other online consumers by changing their perceptions on the product quality. Furthermore, each product aspect may impact consumers' intentions differently. Thus, sentiment analysis and econometric models are incorporated to examine the relationship between purchase intentions and aspect-opinion pairs, which enable the weight estimation for each product aspect. We first identify product aspects and reduce dimensions to extract aspect-opinion pairs. Next the information gain is calculated for each aspect through entropy theory. Based on sentiment polarity and sentiment strength, we formulate an econometric model by integrating the information gain to measure the aspect's weight. In the experiment, we track 386 digital cameras on Amazon for 39 months, and results show that the aspect weight for digital cameras is detected more precisely than TF-ID and HAC algorithms. The results will bridge product aspects and consumption intention to facilitate e-WOM-based marketing.

  10. Children's weight and participation in organized sports.

    PubMed

    Quinto Romani, Annette

    2011-11-01

    Literature dealing with the impact of organized sports on children's weight has been marked by a lack of consensus. A major weakness characterizing most of this research is a lack of proper measurement methods. This paper seeks to fill an important knowledge gap through careful application of econometric methods. Estimations are carried out using data on 1,400 children attending 6th grade in 2008 in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark. We use standard ordinary least squares (OLS) and class fixed effects to explore the effect of sports participation on body mass index (BMI) as well as underweight, overweight and obesity. Results indicate that participation in organized sports reduced BMI by 2.1%. Likewise it reduced the likelihood of being overweight by 8.2 percentage points and obese by 3.1 percentage points. It is the unique dataset combined with econometric methods that distinguishes our contribution from that of others in the field, thereby offering new insight. Results using statistically sound methods suggest that participation in organized sports has a beneficial effect on children's weight.

  11. Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosen, Harvey S.

    1976-01-01

    Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

  12. College Choice in America.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manski, Charles F.; And Others

    The processes of choosing a college and being accepted by a college are analyzed, based on data on nearly 23,000 seniors from more than 1,300 high schools from the National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972. Econometric modeling and descriptive statistics are provided on: student behavior in selecting a college, choosing school/nonschool…

  13. Enhancing Hungarian Special Forces through Transformation -- The Shift to Special Operations Forces

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-06-01

    heteroskedasticity and the Ramsey RESET test . For the detailed regression results see Appendix B. Damodar N. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics , Third...96 Table 13. Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of DV1 (relative attitude toward HUNSF... Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of DV1 (relative attitude toward HUNSF) B. REGRESSION ANALYSIS

  14. The determinants of hardwood lumber price

    Treesearch

    William G. Luppold; Jennifer M. Jacobsen; Jennifer M. Jacobsen

    1985-01-01

    Econometric equations were estimated to determine the effects of domestic foreign hardwood lumber demands on oak and hardwood lumber prices. Oak price seemed to be more sensitive to changes in exports than overall hardwood lumber price. However, the main determinants of hardwood lumber and oak lumber prices were found to be domestic demand and millstock levels.

  15. Eric O'Shaughnessy | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    of residential solar PV markets. Eric leads the lab's solar data partnerships program. Eric's current green power market research. Research Interests Economic analysis, econometrics, distributed solar PV . Ardani, R. Margolis. 2018. Solar plus: Optimization of distributed solar PV through battery storage and

  16. 2003 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Cost of Evolutionary Acquisition/Spiral Development

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2003-08-01

    Louis, Missouri”, IDA Paper P-3548 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Lockheed- Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia”, IDA...Systems Command (NAVSEA)..................................................... B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD...cost estimates and reports on life-cycle costs of major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) in Acquisition Category ID (see Reference [1]). Cost

  17. Income Distribution Over Educational Levels: A Simple Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinbergen, Jan

    An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a…

  18. Homocores, Cores and Operational Inefficiency in Superadditive N-Person Games.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-02-01

    MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS -963-A ’I .. . Re,, arch Report CCS 456 HOMOCO.S S, WOkLS AND OPLP AI [OW \\l INEFFICIENCY...modifications were made in L. Johanssen’s working papers at The Econometric Institute of The University of Oslo in 1981 and in Aumann [1981]. Yet we know

  19. Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

    Treesearch

    Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla Markowski-Lindsay

    2014-01-01

    Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

  20. The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng

    2007-01-01

    Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…

  1. Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Projections: Detailed Analysis of Selected Occupations and Industries. Report to the Honorable Berkley Bedell, United States House of Representatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

    To compile its projections of future employment levels, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) combines the following five interlinked models in a six-step process: a labor force model, an econometric model of the U.S. economy, an industry activity model, an industry labor demand model, and an occupational labor demand model. The BLS was asked to…

  2. Efficiency versus bias: the role of distributional parameters in count contingent behaviour models

    Treesearch

    Joseph Englin; Arwin Pang; Thomas Holmes

    2011-01-01

    One of the challenges facing many applications of non-market valuations is to find data with enough variation in the variable(s) of interest to estimate econometrically their effects on the quantity demanded. A solution to this problem was the introduction of stated preference surveys. These surveys can introduce variation into variables where there is no natural...

  3. The Impact of Socioeconomic Status and Population Size on the Use of the Tatar Language at Home

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio; Podmazin, Evgeny

    2018-01-01

    Based on econometric methods, we found that Tatar children from families with better material conditions and those who live in bigger cities are more likely to use the Russian language at home. Although Tatar seems to be well protected, thanks to local language policies after perestroika, we found some warning signs for the reformulation of public…

  4. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  5. Colin A. McMillan | NREL

    Science.gov Websites

    Colin A. McMillan Photo of Colin A. McMillan. Colin McMillan Researcher IV-Operations Research Econometrics Research Interests Systems-level energy efficiency analysis Material and energy flows in economies ; Journal of Industrial Ecology 17, no. 5 (October 2013): 700-11. doi:10.1111/jiec.12050 McMillan, C.A., S.J

  6. Accounting for respondent uncertainty to improve willingness-to-pay estimates

    Treesearch

    Rebecca Moore; Richard C. Bishop; Bill Provencher; Patricia A. Champ

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, we develop an econometric model of willingness to pay (WTP) that integrates data on respondent uncertainty regarding their own WTP. The integration is utility consistent, there is no recoding of variables, and no need to calibrate the contingent responses to actual payment data, so the approach can "stand alone." In an application to a...

  7. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  8. The Demand for Higher Education in the Netherlands, 1950-1999

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canton, Erik; de Jong, Frank

    2005-01-01

    This paper investigates the role of economic factors in the university enrollment decision for the post-war period in The Netherlands. We include those factors standing at the heart of the idea that education is an investment. The econometric results suggest that students are not responsive to tuition fees, but financial support (the sum of loans…

  9. An Econometric Analysis of the Effectiveness of Compensation to Retention

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-03-01

    increased significantly in recent years. A 2005 study estimated that 72 percent of enlisted members had one or more years of college education...DoD only uses basic pay in calculating the retirement annuity. The Office of the Actuary found that while a 20-year retiree may be entitled to 50...percent of RMC ( Actuary , 2007:10). The current retirement system available to eligible uniformed personnel is a defined benefit plan. Employee

  10. A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Boyce, J K; Ravallion, M

    1991-11-01

    Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.

  11. The stability of coupled renewal-differential equations with econometric applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhoten, R. P.; Aggarwal, J. K.

    1969-01-01

    Concepts and results are presented in the fields of mathematical modeling, economics, and stability analysis. A coupled renewal-differential equation structure is presented as a modeling form for systems possessing hereditary characteristics, and this structure is applied to a model of the Austrian theory of business cycles. For realistic conditions, the system is shown to have an infinite number of poles, and conditions are presented which are both necessary and sufficient for all poles to lie strictly in the left half plane.

  12. Modeling and simulation

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

    1986-01-01

    This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

  13. Determining the Relationship Between Moral Waivers and Marine Corps Unsuitability Attrition

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-03-01

    observed characteristics. However, econometric research indicates that the magnitude of interaction effects estimated via probit or logit models may...1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service separations. 15. NUMBER OF...files from fiscal years 1997 to 2005. Multivariate probit models were used to analyze the effects of moral waivers on unsatisfactory service

  14. Federal timber restrictions, interregional spillovers, and the impact on US softwood markets

    Treesearch

    David N. Wear; Brian C. Murray

    2004-01-01

    An econometric model of the US softwood lumber and timber markets is estimated and used to simulate the price, trade, and welfare effects of reductions in federal timber sales in the western US commencing in the late 1980s. Results indicate that the timber sale reductions increased lumber prices by roughly 15 percent in the mid-1990s. Lumber consumers were the...

  15. Joint Use of the MAB-II and MicroCog for Improvements in the Clinical and Neuropsychological Screening and Aeromedical Waiver Process of Rated USAF Pilots

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-01-01

    medical flight screening and the aeromedical waiver process ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout, 1995). Currently, the...Student pilots with high scores on ability tests are more likely to complete training ( Olea & Ree, 1994; Ree & Carretta, 1996; Ree, Carretta, & Teachout...Matrix differential calculus with applications in statistics and econometrics. New York, NY: John Wiley. Olea , M., & Ree, M.J. (1994

  16. An investigation on the determinants of carbon emissions for OECD countries: empirical evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence.

    PubMed

    Dogan, Eyup; Seker, Fahri

    2016-07-01

    This empirical study analyzes the impacts of real income, energy consumption, financial development and trade openness on CO2 emissions for the OECD countries in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model by using panel econometric approaches that consider issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Results from the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran-Yamagata's homogeneity test, the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, the DSUR estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose Granger causality test indicate that (i) the panel time-series data are heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent; (ii) CO2 emissions, real income, the quadratic income, energy consumption, financial development and openness are integrated of order one; (iii) the analyzed data are cointegrated; (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for the OECD countries; (v) increases in openness and financial development mitigate the level of emissions whereas energy consumption contributes to carbon emissions; (vi) a variety of Granger causal relationship is detected among the analyzed variables; and (vii) empirical results and policy recommendations are accurate and efficient since panel econometric models used in this study account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in their estimation procedures.

  17. Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the Mabel Survey.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Terence C; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates the nature and consequences of sample attrition in a unique longitudinal survey of medical doctors. We describe the patterns of non-response and examine if attrition affects the econometric analysis of medical labour market outcomes using the estimation of physician earnings equations as a case study. We compare the econometric gestimates obtained from a number of different modelling strategies, which are as follows: balanced versus unbalanced samples; an attrition model for panel data based on the classic sample selection model; and a recently developed copula-based selection model. Descriptive evidence shows that doctors who work longer hours, have lower years of experience, are overseas trained and have changed their work location are more likely to drop out. Our analysis suggests that the impact of attrition on inference about the earnings of general practitioners is small. For specialists, there appears to be some evidence for an economically significant bias. Finally, we discuss how the top-up samples in the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life survey can be used to address the problem of panel attrition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  18. Directory of Energy Information Administration Model Abstracts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1986-07-16

    This directory partially fulfills the requirements of Section 8c, of the documentation order, which states in part that: The Office of Statistical Standards will annually publish an EIA document based on the collected abstracts and the appendices. This report contains brief statements about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models active through March 1985 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models withinmore » these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these proprietary models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.« less

  19. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steward, David R.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Yang, Xiaoying; Bulatewicz, Tom; Herrera-Rodriguez, Mauricio; Mao, Dazhi; Hendricks, Nathan

    2009-05-01

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater wells and agricultural parcels is employed to couple these models using geographic information science technology and open modeling interface protocols. This approach is used to study the collective action problem of the common pool. Three different policies (existing, regulation, and incentive based) are studied in the semiarid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in the central United States. Results show that while regulation using the prior appropriation doctrine and incentives using a water buy-back program may each achieve the same level of water savings across the study region, each policy has a different impact on spatial patterns of groundwater declines and farm level economic activity. This represents the first time that groundwater and econometric models of irrigated agriculture have been integrated at the well-parcel level and provides methods for scientific investigation of this coupled natural-human system. Results are useful for science to inform decision making and public policy debate.

  20. Measuring Efficiency of Secondary Healthcare Providers in Slovenia

    PubMed Central

    Blatnik, Patricia; Bojnec, Štefan; Tušak, Matej

    2017-01-01

    Abstract The chief aim of this study was to analyze secondary healthcare providers' efficiency, focusing on the efficiency analysis of Slovene general hospitals. We intended to present a complete picture of technical, allocative, and cost or economic efficiency of general hospitals. Methods We researched the aspects of efficiency with two econometric methods. First, we calculated the necessary quotients of efficiency with the stochastic frontier analyze (SFA), which are realized by econometric evaluation of stochastic frontier functions; then, with the data envelopment analyze (DEA), we calculated the necessary quotients that are based on the linear programming method. Results Results on measures of efficiency showed that the two chosen methods produced two different conclusions. The SFA method concluded Celje General Hospital is the most efficient general hospital, whereas the DEA method concluded Brežice General Hospital was the hospital to be declared as the most efficient hospital. Conclusion Our results are a useful tool that can aid managers, payers, and designers of healthcare policy to better understand how general hospitals operate. The participants can accordingly decide with less difficulty on any further business operations of general hospitals, having the best practices of general hospitals at their disposal. PMID:28730180

  1. Macro policy responses to oil booms and busts in the United Arab Emirates

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Al-Mutawa, A.K.

    1991-01-01

    The effects of oil shocks and macro policy changes in the United Arab Emirates are analyzed. A theoretical model is developed within the framework of the Dutch Disease literature. It contains four unique features that are applicable to the United Arab Emirates' economy. There are: (1) the presence of a large foreign labor force; (2) OPEC's oil export quotas; (3) the division of oil profits; and (4) the important role of government expenditures. The model is then used to examine the welfare effects of the above-mentioned shocks. An econometric model is then specified that conforms to the analytical model. Inmore » the econometric model the method of principal components' is applied owing to the undersized sample data. The principal components methodology is used in both the identification testing and the estimation of the structural equations. The oil and macro policy shocks are then simulated. The simulation results show that an oil-quantity boom leads to a higher welfare gain than an oil-price boom. Under certain circumstances, this finding is also confirmed by the comparative statistics that follow from the analytical model.« less

  2. Assessing the impact of vulnerability on perceptions of social cohesion in the context of community resilience to disaster in the Blue Mountains.

    PubMed

    Redshaw, Sarah; Ingham, Valerie; McCutcheon, Marion; Hicks, John; Burmeister, Oliver

    2018-02-01

    To assess the impact of network communications, community participation and elements of vulnerability on the perception of social cohesiveness in the Blue Mountains local government area (Blue Mountains LGA). A questionnaire was administered to residents of the Blue Mountains LGA. Econometric analysis of the resulting data was undertaken. Blue Mountains LGA, Australia. One thousand one hundred and three residents of the Blue Mountains LGA responded to the questionnaire. The responses enabled the construction of variables measuring individual perceptions of community cohesiveness, their network communications and community participation. Demographic data and data on the vulnerabilities of individuals were also collected. The data were used in an econometric model which identified that network communications and community participation impacted positively on perceptions of social cohesiveness while vulnerability factors had a negative impact. Remedial action to build community cohesiveness and network communications can be expected to have a positive impact on social cohesiveness. In developing strategies to build community cohesiveness and network communication, particular care needs to be taken to ensure the inclusion of those members of society who are regarded as the most vulnerable. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

  3. Density Deconvolution With EPI Splines

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-09-01

    effects of various substances on test subjects [11], [12]. Whereas in geophysics, a shot may be fired into the ground, in pharmacokinetics, a signal is...be significant, including medicine, bioinformatics, chemistry, as- tronomy, and econometrics , as well as an extensive review of kernel based methods...demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in simulations motivated by test instances in [32]. We consider an additive measurement model scenario where

  4. Analytical Tools for Affordability Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-04-30

    flunk this basic test from their inception. —Honorable Ashton B. Carter (2010), Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics... Testing , and Evaluation] funding has been lost to cancelled programs. (Decker & Wagner, 2011) The Army is scarcely unique in this regard. All... econometric model of how schedule affects cost should take advantage of these different cost categories and treat them separately when they are known

  5. Evaluation to Redesign a Prototype Officer Data Base for Interdisciplinary Research

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-01-01

    accommodate cohort longitudinal research and econometric model testing . Recommendations regarding the adoption of the LOADB were presented. Utilization...commission data sets (Younkman, 1987), and the AIMS data set ( Ramsey & Younkman, 1989). An analysis of selected standardized tests for ROTC screening was...ARI Research Note 92-16 Evaluation to Redesign a Prototype il Officer Data Base for Interdisciplinary Research Dianne D. Younkman and Lori G. Ramsey

  6. Long-range correlations in time series generated by time-fractional diffusion: A numerical study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barbieri, Davide; Vivoli, Alessandro

    2005-09-01

    Time series models showing power law tails in autocorrelation functions are common in econometrics. A special non-Markovian model for such kind of time series is provided by the random walk introduced by Gorenflo et al. as a discretization of time fractional diffusion. The time series so obtained are analyzed here from a numerical point of view in terms of autocorrelations and covariance matrices.

  7. Analysis of the Impact of ’People Programs’ Upon Retention of Enlisted Personnel in the Air Force. Appendices K, L, N.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-09

    32 V. An Econometric Model of Retention 71 Bibliography 166 Appendix A Appendix B Volume II Appendix C Appendix D Appendix E Volume III Appendix F...RETENTION OF ENLISTED PE.(U R O0URC RE SE ARCH CORP NH L LEG E ST AIT ION TO 09 jN 82 F4698 _H 8 -0063 NCASFEEEFhEE 5/9 hE EhsohEohmhhhhEE

  8. Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

  9. Defense Infrastructure: Guam Needs Timely Information from DOD to Meet Challenges in Planning and Financing Off-Base Projects and Programs to Support a Larger Military Presence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-11-13

    plan to guide the civilian community as a result of rapid military growth • Designing, testing, and implementation of an econometric model to...continue. 17 48 U.S.C. § 1423a. Most U.S. states and local municipalities have similar...additional revenue. For instance, Guam receives federal income taxes paid by military and civilian employees of the U.S. government stationed in Guam.22

  10. Who's Minding the Neighborhood? The Role of Adult Capacity in Keeping Young People on a Path to Graduation. Research Brief

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center for Promise, 2016

    2016-01-01

    This brief is based on an econometric study conducted in 2016 by Thomas Malone and Dr. Jonathan Zaff. The nation's high school graduation rate has been rising over the past decade and is now at a historic high. As of 2014, however, four percent of all 16- to 19-year-olds in the United States--a total of 690,000 young people--had left high school…

  11. Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

    Treesearch

    David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

    2011-01-01

    An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

  12. Linking land-use projections and forest fragmentation analysis.

    Treesearch

    Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig; Henry Eichman; David J. Lewis

    2007-01-01

    An econometric model of private land-use decisions is used to project land use to 2030 for each county in the continental United States. On a national scale, forest area is projected to increase overall between 0.1 and 0.2 percent per year between now and 2030. However, forest area is projected to decrease in a majority of regions, including the key forestry regions of...

  13. The Effects of Defense and Security on Capital Formation in Africa: An Empirical Investigation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    costs in forgone investment of defense. An econometric model is constructed and applied to data from 27 Sub-Saharan African countries from 1971 through...undeniably greater homogeneity among African countries than among developing countries from different regions. Most of the countries considered here...alter our conclusions. Despite these similarities, there is considerable variation among African countries as well. About one-third of the countries

  14. East Europe Report

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-07-28

    computation the lack of availability of goods, with the aid of an econometric model of the 4-person wage earner household (FRG consumption...substantially reducing the specific consumption of en- ergy, raw materials, and intermediate products per unit of national income . Cooperation conventions...of income , availability of goods, etc. Without a doubt, such differences impair the indicative value of consumer parities. However, the differences

  15. Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    1999-11-01

    Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

  16. Allocation of Federal Airport and Airway Costs for FY 1985.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-12-01

    100 GLOSSARY OF FAA TERMS...................107 APPENDIX A RAMSEY PRICING..................1 ’I"P LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES Title...Methodology .. ....... 26 Figure 2.3.1 Estimation and Allocation of operating Site Costs................28 Table 2.3.2.1 Econometric Results for FAA...Based on Ramsey Pricing ............. 39 Table 2.3.5.1 Allocation of TRACON O&M Costs Based on Ramsey Pricing. ............ 41 Table 2.3.6.1

  17. Peer and Leadership Effects in Academic and Athletic Performance

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-05-02

    literature has used previous peer achievement as an instrument for current achievement (Betts & Zau, 2004; Burke & Sass, 2004; Hanushek , et al...Betts & Zau, 2004; Burke & Sass, 2004; Hanushek , et al., 2003). This has typically been accomplished using large administrative panel data sets while... Hanushek , E.A., Kain, J.F., Markham, J.M. & Rivkin, S.G. (2003). Does Peer Ability Affect Student Achievement? Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 527

  18. 2002 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Estimating the Costs of Transforming U.S. Military Forces

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-08-01

    FY00 billing rates for the following contractors and locations: Lockheed- Martin (Fort Worth, Palmdale, and Marietta ), Boeing (Puget Sound, Southern...2001 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Lockheed- Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia,” IDA Paper P-3590, July 2001...Improvement Group (CAIG) in the Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) provides independent cost estimates and reports on life-cycle costs of major

  19. FAA Aviation Forecast Conference Proceedings (16th)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-02-01

    FORECASTS The FAA forecasting process is a continuous one which involves FAA Forecast Branch’s interaction with various FAA Offices and Services... process uses various economic and aviation data bases, the outputs of several econometric models and equations, and other analytical techniques. The FAA...workload measures, summarized numerically in the table on page 8, are the resultant forecasts of this process and are used annually by the agency for

  20. Dynamics of Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  1. U.S. COIN Doctrine: Betting the Future on a Too Distant Past

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-05-17

    authority. This conceptualization also draws on the Maoist model of insurgency reflecting the influence that 20th Century events have on current...doctrine. The model for legitimate government is a representative government, which Galula points out, is responsive to the needs of its people. JP 1-02... econometrics approach to address the COIN problem. Systems analysis implied that there were two competing systems, insurgency and COIN, with the

  2. The Evolving Urban Community and Military Installations: A Dynamic Spatial Decision Support System for Sustainable Military Communities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-01-01

    focus on identifying growth by income and housing costs. These, and other models are focused on the city itself and deal with growth over the course...2. This model employs a set of econometric models to project future population, household, and employment. The landscape is gridded into one... model in LEAM (LEAMecon) forecasts changes in output, employment and income over time based on changes in the market, technology, productivity and

  3. The Precision of Category Versus Continuous Economic Data: Evidence from the Longitudinal Research on Officer Careers Survey

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1992-08-01

    Hill, D. H. (1985). An investigation of the extent and consequences of measurement error in labor-economic survey data. Journal of Labor Economics , 4...from the Seattle-Denver experiment. Journal of Labor Economics , 4, 380- 407. Griliches, G. & Intriligator, M. (Eds.). (1986). Handbook of econometrics...W., & Sider, H. (1983). Accuracy of response in labor market surveys: Evidence and implication. Journal of Labor Economics , A, 331-344. 13 APPENDIX A

  4. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R.L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  5. Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

  6. SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  7. Econometrics of joint production: another approach. [Petroleum refining and petrochemicals production

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Griffin, J.M.

    1977-11-01

    The pseudo data approach to the joint production of petroleum refining and chemicals is described as an alternative that avoids the multicollinearity of time series data and allows a complex technology to be characterized in a statistical price possibility frontier. Intended primarily for long-range analysis, the pseudo data method can be used as a source of elasticity estimate for policy analysis. 19 references.

  8. Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

    Treesearch

    Thomas P. Holmes; David E. Calkin

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs...

  9. Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

    This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

  10. Water and growth: An econometric analysis of climate and policy impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khan, Hassaan Furqan; Morzuch, Bernard J.; Brown, Casey M.

    2017-06-01

    Water-related hazards such as floods, droughts, and disease cause damage to an economy through the destruction of physical capital including property and infrastructure, the loss of human capital, and the interruption of economic activities, like trade and education. The question for policy makers is whether the impacts of water-related risk accrue to manifest as a drag on economic growth at a scale suggesting policy intervention. In this study, the average drag on economic growth from water-related hazards faced by society at a global level is estimated. We use panel regressions with various specifications to investigate the relationship between economic growth and hydroclimatic variables at the country-river basin level. In doing so, we make use of surface water runoff variables never used before. The analysis of the climate variables shows that water availability and water hazards have significant effects on economic growth, providing further evidence beyond earlier studies finding that precipitation extremes were at least as important or likely more important than temperature effects. We then incorporate a broad set of variables representing the areas of infrastructure, institutions, and information to identify the characteristics of a region that determine its vulnerability to water-related risks. The results identify water scarcity, governance, and agricultural intensity as the most relevant measures affecting vulnerabilities to climate variability effects.

  11. Spatial econometric analysis of factors influencing regional energy efficiency in China.

    PubMed

    Song, Malin; Chen, Yu; An, Qingxian

    2018-05-01

    Increased environmental pollution and energy consumption caused by the country's rapid development has raised considerable public concern, and has become the focus of the government and public. This study employs the super-efficiency slack-based model-data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) to measure the total factor energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China. The estimation model for the spatial interaction intensity of regional total factor energy efficiency is based on Wilson's maximum entropy model. The model is used to analyze the factors that affect the potential value of total factor energy efficiency using spatial dynamic panel data for 30 provinces during 2000-2014. The study found that there are differences and spatial correlations of energy efficiency among provinces and regions in China. The energy efficiency in the eastern, central, and western regions fluctuated significantly, and was mainly because of significant energy efficiency impacts on influences of industrial structure, energy intensity, and technological progress. This research is of great significance to China's energy efficiency and regional coordinated development.

  12. Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

    2013-04-01

    Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

  13. Executive Summary: The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE JHiiriuTn.. O 0 n-^ ^ isnmnii/ivuuwun MB * < Report Categories: The research outn ,t by the Strategic Studies Center is...research as well as the general method- ology employed. The reports are previewed and approved by the Director of the Strategic Studies Center or higher...than rormally edited, printed, and bound in standard SRI covers. The reports are reviewed and approved by the Director of the Strategic Studies

  14. Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

    2018-06-01

    Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

  15. Airport and Airway Costs: Allocation and Recovery in the 1980’s.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-02-01

    1997 [8]. 3*X S.% Volume 4, FAA Cost Recovery Options [9). Volume 5, Econometric Cost Functions for FAA Cost Allocation Model [10]. Volume 6, Users...and relative price elasticities ( Ramsey pricing technique). User fees based on the Ramsey pricing tend to be less burdensome on users and minimize...full discussion of the Ramsey pricing techniques is provided in Allocation of Federal Airport and Airway Costs for FY 1985 [6]. -12- In step 5

  16. Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  17. LEAMram (Trademark): Land Use Evolution and Impact Assessment Model Residential Attractiveness Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-09-01

    MEPLAN are popular in both the United States and overseas, and focus on identifying growth by income and housing costs. These and other models focus...CUF-2), SLEUTH, Landuse Evolution Assessment Model (LEAM™), Smart Places, and What If?: • CUF-2 uses a set of econometric models to project...ER D C/ CE R L TR -0 6 -2 8 LEAMram™: Land use Evolution and impact Assessment Model Residential Attractiveness Model James D

  18. Recruiters, Advertising, and Navy Enlistments.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    Population’s Awareness and Advertising Previous studies on advertising have focused on measuring its effects in product markets : the consensus is that...needed that would have an immediate effect. Since about half of the HSGs generated by advertising accrue after the second year, the proper strategy is...1 June 1973. 4. Clarke, D.G., "Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, Vol. III

  19. Analyzing the Effects of Technological Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-09-01

    to obtain. One way out of this dilemma is to change slightly the interpretation of the formal model of consumer behavior which has been presented above...approach to analyzing the economy-wide effects of a phenomenon such as technological change. By focussing on aggregate producer and consumer behavior , it is... Consumer Behavior ." In R.L. Baseman and G. Rhodes, eds., Advances in Econometrics, vol. 1. Greenwich: JAI Press, 1982. Nagurney [1987] Nagurney, A

  20. United States Military Retirement Migration: Patterns and Processes.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-03-27

    active duty force e) Number of heating degree days tA 23 f) Number of physicians per 1000 population g) Recreation acres per 1000 population h...Eva Mueller. 1967. The Geographic Mobility of Labor. Ann Arbor : University of Michigan. Institute for Social Research, Survey Research Center. Law, C.M... Chicken or Egg?. Southern Economic Journal. 37:295-306. Muth, J.F. 1961. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements. Econometrics. 29:315

  1. Understrength Air Force Officer Career Fields. A Force Management Approach

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2005-01-01

    LtCol John Crown (DPSA). In addition, we had very helpful interviews with Mr. Vaughan Blackstone (DPAPP) and Mr. Dennis Miller (DPPAO). Also at...econometric impact analysis that was used to determine an optimal bonus amount or target population prior to bonus implementation.15 The success of...problems in managing personnel assignments. First, there is a high " tax " for special-duty jobs that requires them to place personnel officers into

  2. Modified Maxium Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-08-01

    McCullagh, P.; Nelder, J.A. Generalized Linear Model , 2nd ed.; Chapman and Hall: London, 1989. 7. Johnston, J. Econometric Methods, 3rd ed.; McGraw...FOR A DOSE-RESPONSE MODEL ECBC-TN-068 Kyong H. Park Steven J. Lagan RESEARCH AND TECHNOLOGY DIRECTORATE August 2015 Approved for public release...Likelihood Estimation Method for Completely Separated and Quasi-Completely Separated Data for a Dose-Response Model 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT

  3. Oscillatory dynamics of investment and capacity utilization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenblatt, R. E.

    2017-01-01

    Capitalist economic systems display a wide variety of oscillatory phenomena whose underlying causes are often not well understood. In this paper, I consider a very simple model of the reciprocal interaction between investment, capacity utilization, and their time derivatives. The model, which gives rise periodic oscillations, predicts qualitatively the phase relations between these variables. These predictions are observed to be consistent in a statistical sense with econometric data from the US economy.

  4. Application of an Entropic Approach to Assessing Systems Integration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-03-01

    two econometrical measures of information efficiency – Shannon entropy and Hurst exponent . Shannon entropy (which is explained in Chapter III) can be...applied to evaluate long-term correlation of time series, while Hurst exponent can be applied to classify the time series in accordance to existence...of trend. Hurst exponent is the statistical measure of time series long-range dependence, and its value falls in the interval [0, 1] – a value in

  5. Robust Bounded Influence Tests in Linear Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1988-11-01

    sensitivity analysis and bounded influence estimation. In: Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J.B. Ramsey (eds.) Academic Press, New York...1R’OBUST bOUNDED INFLUENCE TESTS IN LINEA’ MODELS and( I’homas P. [lettmansperger* Tim [PennsylvanLa State UJniversity A M i0d fix pu111 rsos.p JJ 1 0...November 1988 ROBUST BOUNDED INFLUENCE TESTS IN LINEAR MODELS Marianthi Markatou The University of Iowa and Thomas P. Hettmansperger* The Pennsylvania

  6. Regression Models of Quarterly Overhead Costs for Six Government Aerospace Contractors.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-03-01

    34 Testing ,, for Serial Correlation After Least Squares %Regression, Econometrica, Vol. 36, No. 1, pp. 133-150, January 1968. Intrili8ator M.D., Econometric ...to be superior. These two estimators are both two-stage estimators that are calculated utilizing Wallis’s test statistic for fourth-order...utilizing Wallis’s test statistic for fourth-order autocorrelation. NTIS C F’,& D tI1C T - .1 I -. . . ..- rJ ,. *p J • - DA 3

  7. Estimating the Standard Error of Robust Regression Estimates.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-03-01

    error is 0(n4/5). In another Monte Carlo study, McKean and Schrader (1984) found that the tests resulting from studentizing ; by _3d/1/2 with d =0(n4 /5...44 4 -:~~-~*v: -. *;~ ~ ~*t .~ # ~ 44 % * ~ .%j % % % * . ., ~ -%. -14- Sheather, S. J. and McKean, J. W. (1987). A comparison of testing and...Wiley, New York. Welsch, R. E. (1980). Regression Sensitivity Analysis and Bounded- Influence Estimation, in Evaluation of Econometric Models eds. J

  8. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  9. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  10. Forest management and economics

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Buongiorno, J.; Gilless, J.K.

    1987-01-01

    This volume provides a survey of quantitative methods, guiding the reader through formulation and analysis of models that address forest management problems. The authors use simple mathematics, graphics, and short computer programs to explain each method. Emphasizing applications, they discuss linear, integer, dynamic, and goal programming; simulation; network modeling; and econometrics, as these relate to problems of determining economic harvest schedules in even-aged and uneven-aged forests, the evaluation of forest policies, multiple-objective decision making, and more.

  11. Recruiters, Advertising, and Navy Enlistments,

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-10-01

    product markets have concluded that advertising increases demand in current and future periods, but its effects decline over time (see reference 2). A study...Apr 1979 2. Clarke, D.G., "Econometric Measurement of the Duration of Advertising Effect on Sales," Journal of Marketing Research, Nov 1976, pp. 345...7AD-AOA6201 CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA INST OF NAVAL--ETC F/6 5/9 I RECRUITERS, ADVERTISING , AND NAVY ENLISTMENTS. (U) IOCT 79 L

  12. The Defense Department’s Support of Industry’s Independent Research and Development (IR&D). Analyses and Evaluation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-04-01

    Hill and Susan Bodilly were incorporated into this report. Todd Porter, a RAND Summer Intern, contributed to the data development, statistical...5Bailey and Lawrence , 1987, pp. 19-20. The R&D tax credit allowed a 25 percent credit for R&D expenditures in excess of the average amount spent...See J. A. Hausman , ’Specificaticn Tests in Econometrics,"Econormetrica, Vol, 46, No. 6, November 1978. 61 (7) and (8) report the results of this

  13. Treatment effects model for assessing disease management: measuring outcomes and strengthening program management.

    PubMed

    Wendel, Jeanne; Dumitras, Diana

    2005-06-01

    This paper describes an analytical methodology for obtaining statistically unbiased outcomes estimates for programs in which participation decisions may be correlated with variables that impact outcomes. This methodology is particularly useful for intraorganizational program evaluations conducted for business purposes. In this situation, data is likely to be available for a population of managed care members who are eligible to participate in a disease management (DM) program, with some electing to participate while others eschew the opportunity. The most pragmatic analytical strategy for in-house evaluation of such programs is likely to be the pre-intervention/post-intervention design in which the control group consists of people who were invited to participate in the DM program, but declined the invitation. Regression estimates of program impacts may be statistically biased if factors that impact participation decisions are correlated with outcomes measures. This paper describes an econometric procedure, the Treatment Effects model, developed to produce statistically unbiased estimates of program impacts in this type of situation. Two equations are estimated to (a) estimate the impacts of patient characteristics on decisions to participate in the program, and then (b) use this information to produce a statistically unbiased estimate of the impact of program participation on outcomes. This methodology is well-established in economics and econometrics, but has not been widely applied in the DM outcomes measurement literature; hence, this paper focuses on one illustrative application.

  14. Willingness to pay for ovulation induction treatment in case of WHO II anovulation: a study using the contingent valuation method.

    PubMed

    Poder, Thomas G; He, Jie; Simard, Catherine; Pasquier, Jean-Charles

    2014-01-01

    To measure the willingness to pay (WTP) of women aged 18-45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction (ie, the social value of normal cycles of ovulation for a woman of childbearing age) in order to feed the debate about the funding of fertility cares. An anonymous questionnaire was used over the general population of Quebec. A total of 136 subjects were recruited in three medical clinics, and 191 subjects through an online questionnaire. THE QUESTIONNAIRE CONSISTED OF THREE PARTS: introduction to the problematic, socioeconomic data collection to determine factors influencing the formation of WTP, and a WTP question using the simple bid price dichotomous choice elicitation technique. The econometric estimation method is based on the "random utility theory." Each subject responding to our questionnaire could express her uncertainty about the answer to our WTP question by choosing the answer "I do not know." The WTP in Canadian dollars of women aged 18-45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction. Results are positive and indicate an average WTP exceeding 4,800 CAD, which is much more than the drug treatment cost. There is no evidence of sample frame bias or avidity bias across the two survey modes that cannot be controlled in econometric estimates. Medical treatment for ovulation induction is highly socially desirable in Quebec.

  15. [Demand for cigarettes and tax increases in El Salvador].

    PubMed

    Ramos-Carbajales, Alejandro; González-Rozada, Martín; Vallarino, Hugo

    2016-10-01

    Analyze short- and long-term elasticities of demand for cigarettes in El Salvador as a tool for supporting recommendations on tax increases to reduce prevalence and consumption through price increases. Demand for cigarettes in El Salvador was analyzed through an econometric time-series model using a database from El Salvador's General Directorate of Internal Taxes (DGII) and the General Directorate of Statistics and Census (DIGESTYC). The analysis period was quarterly: 2000Q1-2012Q4. The usual tests were done to prevent a spurious econometric estimation. It was found that the variables volume sales, actual sale prices, and actual per capita income exhibited first-order cointegration; this result makes it possible to use an error correction model with short- and long-term elasticity estimates. Only long-term elasticities were found to be statistically significant to 5%. Results show long-term price elasticity (5 quarters) of -0.9287 and income price elasticity of 0.9978. Absolute price elasticity is somewhat high, although it is within the levels estimated in other studies in low per-capita income countries. A tax increase from a base amount of US$1.04 per pack of 20 cigarettes to US$1.66 within three years would reduce demand by 20% to 31% and would increase tax revenues by 9% to 22%.

  16. Market for ethanol feed joint products

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Hertzmark, D.; Gould, B.

    1979-10-01

    This report presents results of econometric estimations and mathematical simulations of markets for joint feed products of motor ethanol. The major issues considered are the nature of current market price relationships, effects on prices, including feed substitutes prices, and effects of demands for increased use of distillers' grains and gluten meal. The econometric section shows that soybean meal was by far the dominant force in the pricing of the two products. However, neither one could be adequately explained without the inclusion of corn in the estimating equations. Later research shows that this was due to the importance of both feedsmore » for metabolizable energy as well as for protein in livestock diets. Current ration formulations would require some discounting of the value of the protein content of the two feeds. Careful siting of the ethanol facilities, and flexible design of the plants so that a maximum number of products may be extracted from the feedstock, seem necessary. Finally, the analysis indicates that substitution in animal diets of these joint products for the corn or milo used originally requires that additional energy be supplied to the animal by some type of forage crop. This implies that additional land may be required for energy production, for such marginal crops as hay and alfalfa, rather than for row crops.« less

  17. Regional economic forecasting models: Suitability for use in the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    South, D.W.; McDonald, J.F.; Oakland, W.H.

    1990-02-01

    In preparation for the Phase 1 test runs of the National Acid Precipitation Assessment Program Task Group B (TG-B) emissions model set, the need arose to provide regional economic data directly to the sector models in the model set and to the Argonne Regionalization Activity Module (ARAM). Candidate regional economic models were reviewed, and the Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), model was selected. This review of models, conducted during 1984--1985, is documented in this report. Even though considerable time has elapsed since then, the model descriptions and critique contained in this report are still fairly accurate and the recommendations should stillmore » be valid. There have been, however, some significant changes: (1) two of the economic consulting firms whose models were reviewed, Chase Econometrics and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, have merged, (2) the DRI Regional Information System (DRI/RIS) now constructs a regional measure of industrial value of shipments, which will be used as the industrial activity variable (instead of employment) in the Phase 2 scenario analyses, and (3) based on recommendations from the third-party review of the TG-B model set, price-sensitive regional equations were developed to provide inputs, not already produced by the DRI/RIS model, directly to the sector models, thus eliminating the function served by ARAM. 44 refs., 12 figs., 44 tabs.« less

  18. Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

  19. Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

    PubMed

    Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

    2018-01-01

    The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

  20. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. The ontology of science teaching in the neoliberal era

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sharma, Ajay

    2017-12-01

    Because of ever stricter standards of accountability, science teachers are under an increasing and unrelenting pressure to demonstrate the effects of their teaching on student learning. Econometric perspectives of teacher quality have become normative in assessment of teachers' work for accountability purposes. These perspectives seek to normalize some key ontological assumptions about teachers and teaching, and thus play an important role in shaping our understanding of the work science teachers do as teachers in their classrooms. In this conceptual paper I examine the ontology of science teaching as embedded in econometric perspectives of teacher quality. Based on Foucault's articulation of neoliberalism as a discourse of governmentality in his `The Birth of Biopolitics' lectures, I suggest that this ontology corresponds well with the strong and substantivist ontology of work under neoliberalism, and thus could potentially be seen as reflection of the influence of neoliberal ideas in education. Implications of the mainstreaming of an ontology of teaching that is compatible with neoliberalism can be seen in increasing marketization of teaching, `teaching evangelism', and impoverished notions of learning and teaching. A shift of focus from teacher quality to quality of teaching and building conceptual models of teaching based on relational ontologies deserve to be explored as important steps in preserving critical and socially just conceptions of science teaching in neoliberal times.

  2. Determinant of Road Traffic Crash Fatalities in Iran: A Longitudinal Econometric Analysis.

    PubMed

    Rezaei, Satar; Bagheri Lankarani, Kamran; Karami Matin, Behzad; Bazyar, Mohammad; Hamzeh, Behrooz; Najafi, Farid

    2015-01-01

    Injuries and deaths from road traffic crashes are one of the main public health problems throughout the world. This study aimed to identify determinants of fatality traffic accident in Iran for the twenty-span year from 1991 to 2011. A time series analysis (1991-2011) was used to examine the effects of some of the key explanatory factors (GDP per capita, number of doctors per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization, unemployment rate and motorization rate) on deaths from road traffic in Iran. In order to examine long- and short-run effects of variables, we employed autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach and error correction method (ECM). The data for the study was obtained from the Central Bank of Iran (CBI), Iranian Statistical Center (ISC) and Legal medical organizations (LMO). GDP per capita, doctor per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization and motorization rate had a significant impact on fatality from road traffic in Iran. We did not observe any short- and long-term effects of the unemployment rate on fatality from road traffic. GDP per capita, doctor per 10,000 populations, degree of urbanization and motorization rate were identified as main determinant of fatality from road traffic accidents in Iran. We hope the results of the current study enable health policy-makers to understand better the factors affecting deaths from road traffic accidents in the country.

  3. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

  4. An Econometric Study of Public School Expenditure Variations Across States, 1951-1967.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barro, Stephen M.

    Nine sets of annual data on State school finances are used to test a theory of expenditure determination by public school districts. The results support implications of the theory regarding effects of personal income, State and federal aid, the relative price of education, the pupil/population ratio, and enrollment growth on per pupil spending. A…

  5. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-01-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

  6. Solicitation and Donation: An Econometric Evaluation of Alumni Generosity in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gottfried, Michael A.; Johnson, Erica L.

    2006-01-01

    This paper evaluates the relationship between alumni solicitation and alumni donation within institutions of higher education. The issue of alumni giving is important for universities because the average cost of university tuition has increased dramatically over the past 20 years at an annual growth rate larger than the United States CPI (Harvard…

  7. Econometrics of inventory holding and shortage costs: the case of refined gasoline

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Krane, S.D.

    1985-01-01

    This thesis estimates a model of a firm's optimal inventory and production behavior in order to investigate the link between the role of inventories in the business cycle and the microeconomic incentives for holding stocks of finished goods. The goal is to estimate a set of structural cost function parameters that can be used to infer the optimal cyclical response of inventories and production to shocks in demand. To avoid problems associated with the use of value based aggregate inventory data, an industry level physical unit data set for refined motor gasoline is examined. The Euler equations for a refiner'smore » multiperiod decision problem are estimated using restrictions imposed by the rational expectations hypothesis. The model also embodies the fact that, in most periods, the level of shortages will be zero, and even when positive, the shortages are not directly observable in the data set. These two concerns lead us to use a generalized method of moments estimation technique on a functional form that resembles the formulation of a Tobit problem. The estimation results are disappointing; the model and data yield coefficient estimates incongruous with the cost function interpretations of the structural parameters. These is only some superficial evidence that production smoothing is significant and that marginal inventory shortage costs increase at a faster rate than do marginal holding costs.« less

  8. [Public spending on health and population health in Algeria: an econometric analysis].

    PubMed

    Messaili, Moussa; Kaïd Tlilane, Nouara

    2017-07-10

    Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of public spending on health, among other determinants of health, on the health of the population in Algeria, using life expectancy (men and women) and infant mortality rates as indicators of health status. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study over the period from 1974 to 2010 using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) approach to co-integration to estimate the short-term and long-term relationship. Results: Public spending on health has a positive, but not statistically significant impact, in the long and short term, on life expectancy (men and women). However, public spending significantly reduces the infant mortality rate. The long-term impact of the number of hospital beds is significant for the life expectancy of men, but not for women and infant mortality, but is significant for all indicators in the short-term relationship. The most important variables in improving the health of the population are real GDP per capita and fertility rate.

  9. Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 19, 2014 : Final report

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2014-12-19

    Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrain imposed by Air Traffic Control. Identifying conditions that lead to more severe loss of s...

  10. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  11. Identifiability and Problems of Model Selection for Time-Series Analysis in Econometrics.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-01-01

    Z is defined by (2.1) Fx + ( y( If x(t), T c R;dt for discrete-time, that is, with the time set T = Z = integers, a system F is given by * The...O1/14/81 cb (2.2) x(t + 1) Fx (t) + Gu(t), y(t) = Hx(t), t c Z. In (2.1-2.2), the real (or complex) vectors x, u, and y are called state, inpuI, and...compulsory. Astro - loryi has been tried. No optimist would quarrel with the declaration of one of von NE!MAfrIiI’s direct successors that "exposure to the

  12. Cost Growth in Weapons Systems: Re-examining Rubber Baselines and Economic Factors

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-03-01

    committee members for their support in this endeavor. They allowed me to test my econometric limits without performing the analysis for me. I...Bruesch-Pagan Het Test Ramsey Omitted Variable Test 6 The adjusted r-squared value indicates that this model explains nearly 16% of the factors...Observations 1150 Chi2(1) 69.01 P(Chi) 0.0000 F(3, 1139) 7.22 P(F) 0.0001 Bruesch-Pagan Het Test Ramsey Omitted Variable Test The results of these two

  13. Stochastic Calculus and Differential Equations for Physics and Finance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2013-02-01

    1. Random variables and probability distributions; 2. Martingales, Markov, and nonstationarity; 3. Stochastic calculus; 4. Ito processes and Fokker-Planck equations; 5. Selfsimilar Ito processes; 6. Fractional Brownian motion; 7. Kolmogorov's PDEs and Chapman-Kolmogorov; 8. Non Markov Ito processes; 9. Black-Scholes, martingales, and Feynman-Katz; 10. Stochastic calculus with martingales; 11. Statistical physics and finance, a brief history of both; 12. Introduction to new financial economics; 13. Statistical ensembles and time series analysis; 14. Econometrics; 15. Semimartingales; References; Index.

  14. An Analysis of Selectivity Bias in the Medicare AAPCC

    PubMed Central

    Dowd, Bryan; Feldman, Roger; Moscovice, Ira; Wisner, Catherine; Bland, Pat; Finch, Mike

    1996-01-01

    Using econometric models of endogenous sample selection, we examine possible payment bias to Medicare Tax Equity and Fiscal Responsibility Act of 1982 (TEFRA)-risk health maintenance organizations (HMOs) in the Twin Cities in 1988. We do not find statistically significant evidence of favorable HMO selection. In fact, the sign of the selection term indicates adverse selection into HMOs. This finding is interesting, in view of the fact that three of the five risk HMOs in the study have since converted to non-risk contracts. PMID:10158735

  15. A multi-resolution approach for optimal mass transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dominitz, Ayelet; Angenent, Sigurd; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2007-09-01

    Optimal mass transport is an important technique with numerous applications in econometrics, fluid dynamics, automatic control, statistical physics, shape optimization, expert systems, and meteorology. Motivated by certain problems in image registration and medical image visualization, in this note, we describe a simple gradient descent methodology for computing the optimal L2 transport mapping which may be easily implemented using a multiresolution scheme. We also indicate how the optimal transport map may be computed on the sphere. A numerical example is presented illustrating our ideas.

  16. A statistical test of the stability assumption inherent in empirical estimates of economic depreciation.

    PubMed

    Shriver, K A

    1986-01-01

    Realistic estimates of economic depreciation are required for analyses of tax policy, economic growth and production, and national income and wealth. THe purpose of this paper is to examine the stability assumption underlying the econometric derivation of empirical estimates of economic depreciation for industrial machinery and and equipment. The results suggest that a reasonable stability of economic depreciation rates of decline may exist over time. Thus, the assumption of a constant rate of economic depreciation may be a reasonable approximation for further empirical economic analyses.

  17. Oil and Gas Supply Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gass, S. I.

    1982-05-01

    The theoretical and applied state of the art of oil and gas supply models was discussed. The following areas were addressed: the realities of oil and gas supply, prediction of oil and gas production, problems in oil and gas modeling, resource appraisal procedures, forecasting field size and production, investment and production strategies, estimating cost and production schedules for undiscovered fields, production regulations, resource data, sensitivity analysis of forecasts, econometric analysis of resource depletion, oil and gas finding rates, and various models of oil and gas supply.

  18. Out-of-pocket expenditures for pharmaceuticals: lessons from the Austrian household budget survey.

    PubMed

    Sanwald, Alice; Theurl, Engelbert

    2017-05-01

    Paying pharmaceuticals out of pocket is an important source of financing pharmaceutical consumption. Only limited empirical knowledge is available on the determinants of these expenditures. In this article we analyze which characteristics of private households influence out-of-pocket pharmaceutical expenditure (OOPPE) in Austria. We use cross-sectional information on OOPPE and household characteristics provided by the Austrian household budget survey 2009/10. We split pharmaceutical expenditures into the two components prescription fees and over-the-counter (OTC) expenditures. To adjust for the specific characteristics of the data, we compare different econometric approaches: a two-part model, hurdle model, generalized linear model and zero-inflated negative binomial regression model. The finally selected econometric approaches give a quite consistent picture. The probability of expenditures of both types is strongly influenced by the household structure. It increases with age, doctoral visits and the presence of a female householder. The education level and income only increase the probability of OTC pharmaceuticals. The level of OTC expenditures remains widely unexplained while the household structure and age influence the expenditures for prescription fees. Insurance characteristics of private households, either private or public, play a minor role in explaining the expenditure levels in all specifications. This refers to a homogeneous and comprehensive provision of pharmaceuticals in the public part of the Austrian health care system. The article gives useful insights into the determinants of pharmaceutical expenditures of private households and supplements the previous research that focuses on the individual level.

  19. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1987-08-11

    This report contains brief statements from the model managers about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models ''active'' through March 1987 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained supportmore » and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.« less

  20. Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions.

    PubMed

    Braza, Mark

    2017-08-01

    Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity-score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

  1. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  2. Willingness to pay for ovulation induction treatment in case of WHO II anovulation: a study using the contingent valuation method

    PubMed Central

    Poder, Thomas G; He, Jie; Simard, Catherine; Pasquier, Jean-Charles

    2014-01-01

    Objective To measure the willingness to pay (WTP) of women aged 18–45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction (ie, the social value of normal cycles of ovulation for a woman of childbearing age) in order to feed the debate about the funding of fertility cares. Setting An anonymous questionnaire was used over the general population of Quebec. Participants A total of 136 subjects were recruited in three medical clinics, and 191 subjects through an online questionnaire. Method The questionnaire consisted of three parts: introduction to the problematic, socioeconomic data collection to determine factors influencing the formation of WTP, and a WTP question using the simple bid price dichotomous choice elicitation technique. The econometric estimation method is based on the “random utility theory.” Each subject responding to our questionnaire could express her uncertainty about the answer to our WTP question by choosing the answer “I do not know.” Outcome measure The WTP in Canadian dollars of women aged 18–45 years to receive drug treatment for ovulation induction. Results Results are positive and indicate an average WTP exceeding 4,800 CAD, which is much more than the drug treatment cost. There is no evidence of sample frame bias or avidity bias across the two survey modes that cannot be controlled in econometric estimates. Conclusion Medical treatment for ovulation induction is highly socially desirable in Quebec. PMID:25328385

  3. An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

    PubMed

    Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  4. Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

  5. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1994-01-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  6. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS data base). Published Search

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1992-10-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  7. Energy supply and demand modeling. (Latest citations from the NTIS bibliographic database). Published Search

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1994-12-01

    The bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (Contains 250 citations and includes a subject term index and title list.)

  8. An evaluation of dynamic mutuality measurements and methods in cyclic time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xia, Xiaohua; Huang, Guitian; Duan, Na

    2010-12-01

    Several measurements and techniques have been developed to detect dynamic mutuality and synchronicity of time series in econometrics. This study aims to compare the performances of five methods, i.e., linear regression, dynamic correlation, Markov switching models, concordance index and recurrence quantification analysis, through numerical simulations. We evaluate the abilities of these methods to capture structure changing and cyclicity in time series and the findings of this paper would offer guidance to both academic and empirical researchers. Illustration examples are also provided to demonstrate the subtle differences of these techniques.

  9. Raising household saving: does financial education work?

    PubMed

    Gale, William G; Harris, Benjamin H; Levine, Ruth

    2012-01-01

    This article highlights the prevalence and economic outcomes of financial illiteracy among American households, and reviews previous research that examines how improving financial literacy affects household saving. Analysis of the research literature suggests that previous financial literacy efforts have yielded mixed results. Evidence suggests that interventions provided for employees in the workplace have helped increase household saving, but estimates of the magnitude of the impact vary widely. For financial education initiatives targeted to other groups, the evidence is much more ambiguous, suggesting a need for more econometrically rigorous evaluations.

  10. An economic approach to abortion demand.

    PubMed

    Rothstein, D S

    1992-01-01

    "This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." excerpt

  11. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  12. An Econometric Model of the Scholastic Aptitude Test Performance of State Educational Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hashway, Robert M.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Nationwide data were partitioned into wealth, fiscal policy, fiscal orientation, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) performance and participation. Largest between-group differences show that low SAT achieving states have a larger percentage of seniors taking the SAT, along with higher per capita income, per pupil expenditures, and teacher…

  13. The causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem-an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Asumadu-Sarkodie, Samuel; Owusu, Phebe Asantewaa

    2017-01-01

    Achieving a long-term food security and preventing hunger include a better nutrition through sustainable systems of production, distribution, and consumption. Nonetheless, the quest for an alternative to increasing global food supply to meet the growing demand has led to the use of poor agricultural practices that promote climate change. Given the contribution of the agricultural ecosystem towards greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, this study investigated the causal nexus between carbon dioxide emissions and agricultural ecosystem by employing a data spanning from 1961 to 2012. Evidence from long-run elasticity shows that a 1 % increase in the area of rice paddy harvested will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.49 %, a 1 % increase in biomass-burned crop residues will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.00 %, a 1 % increase in cereal production will increase carbon dioxide emissions by 1.38 %, and a 1 % increase in agricultural machinery will decrease carbon dioxide emissions by 0.09 % in the long run. There was a bidirectional causality between carbon dioxide emissions, cereal production, and biomass-burned crop residues. The Granger causality shows that the agricultural ecosystem in Ghana is sensitive to climate change vulnerability.

  14. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  15. Do hospitals respond to rivals' quality and efficiency? A spatial panel econometric analysis.

    PubMed

    Longo, Francesco; Siciliani, Luigi; Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita

    2017-09-01

    We investigate whether hospitals in the English National Health Service change their quality or efficiency in response to changes in quality or efficiency of neighbouring hospitals. We first provide a theoretical model that predicts that a hospital will not respond to changes in the efficiency of its rivals but may change its quality or efficiency in response to changes in the quality of rivals, though the direction of the response is ambiguous. We use data on eight quality measures (including mortality, emergency readmissions, patient reported outcome, and patient satisfaction) and six efficiency measures (including bed occupancy, cancelled operations, and costs) for public hospitals between 2010/11 and 2013/14 to estimate both spatial cross-sectional and spatial fixed- and random-effects panel data models. We find that although quality and efficiency measures are unconditionally spatially correlated, the spatial regression models suggest that a hospital's quality or efficiency does not respond to its rivals' quality or efficiency, except for a hospital's overall mortality that is positively associated with that of its rivals. The results are robust to allowing for spatially correlated covariates and errors and to instrumenting rivals' quality and efficiency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Social Security and Saving: A Time-Series Econometrics Pedagogical Example (With "R" Code)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wassell, Charles S., Jr.

    2018-01-01

    In 1974, and then again in 1996, Martin Feldstein published studies of the impact of the Social Security system on private saving in the U.S. economy. He found that Social Security depressed personal saving by a substantial amount--up to 50 percent. The author uses the Feldstein data and empirical models in this article to illustrate the steps in…

  17. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

    PubMed Central

    Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

  18. Nitrogen Oxide Emission, Economic Growth and Urbanization in China: a Spatial Econometric Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Zhimin; Zhou, Yanli; Ge, Xiangyu

    2018-01-01

    This research studies the nexus of nitrogen oxide emissions and economic development/urbanization. Under the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, we apply the analysis technique of spatial panel data in the STIRPAT framework, and thus obtain the estimated impacts of income/urbanization on nitrogen oxide emission systematically. The empirical findings suggest that spatial dependence on nitrogen oxide emission distribution exist at provincial level, and the inverse N-shape EKC describes both income-nitrogen oxide and urbanization-nitrogen oxide nexuses. In addition, some well-directed policy advices are made to reduce the nitrogen oxide emission in future.

  19. Econometric Model for Optimizing Troop Dining Facility Operations (The Army Master Menu Study).

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-11-01

    Vegetables and fruit -- 4 or more servings daily including a serving of citrus fruit (or juice ) or other fruit / vegetable rich in Vitamin C and a...to provide variety and contrast in texture, flavor and color. II. BREAKFAST A. At least one fruit , fruit juice or vegetable juice will be offered...Each nutritional goal is to be met or exceeded except the calorie goal which is to be met due to an emphasis on weight control. In addition AR 30

  20. Driving factors of interactions between the exchange rate market and the commodity market: A wavelet-based complex network perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wen, Shaobo; An, Haizhong; Chen, Zhihua; Liu, Xueyong

    2017-08-01

    In traditional econometrics, a time series must be in a stationary sequence. However, it usually shows time-varying fluctuations, and it remains a challenge to execute a multiscale analysis of the data and discover the topological characteristics of conduction in different scales. Wavelet analysis and complex networks in physical statistics have special advantages in solving these problems. We select the exchange rate variable from the Chinese market and the commodity price index variable from the world market as the time series of our study. We explore the driving factors behind the behavior of the two markets and their topological characteristics in three steps. First, we use the Kalman filter to find the optimal estimation of the relationship between the two markets. Second, wavelet analysis is used to extract the scales of the relationship that are driven by different frequency wavelets. Meanwhile, we search for the actual economic variables corresponding to different frequency wavelets. Finally, a complex network is used to search for the transfer characteristics of the combination of states driven by different frequency wavelets. The results show that statistical physics have a unique advantage over traditional econometrics. The Chinese market has time-varying impacts on the world market: it has greater influence when the world economy is stable and less influence in times of turmoil. The process of forming the state combination is random. Transitions between state combinations have a clustering feature. Based on these characteristics, we can effectively reduce the information burden on investors and correctly respond to the government's policy mix.

  1. The Cost of Smoking in California.

    PubMed

    Max, Wendy; Sung, Hai-Yen; Shi, Yanling; Stark, Brad

    2016-05-01

    The economic impact of smoking, including healthcare costs and the value of lost productivity due to illness and mortality, was estimated for California for 2009. Smoking-attributable healthcare costs were estimated using a series of econometric models that estimate expenditures for hospital care, ambulatory care, prescriptions, home health care, and nursing home care. Lost productivity due to illness was estimated using an econometric model predicting how smoking status affects the number of days lost from work or other activities. The value of lives lost from premature mortality due to smoking was estimated using an epidemiological approach. Almost 4 million Californians still smoke, including 146 000 adolescents. The cost of smoking in 2009 totaled $18.1 billion, including $9.8 billion in healthcare costs, $1.4 billion in lost productivity from illness, and $6.8 billion in lost productivity from premature mortality. This amounts to $487 per California resident and $4603 per smoker. Costs were greater for men than for women. Hospital costs comprised 44% of healthcare costs. Despite extensive efforts at tobacco control in California, healthcare and lost productivity costs attributable to smoking remain high. Compared to costs for 1999, the total cost was 15% greater in 2009. However, after adjusting for inflation, real costs have fallen by 13% over the past decade, indicating that efforts have been successful in reducing the economic burden of smoking in the state. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  2. Cost-effectiveness of aortic valve replacement in the elderly: an introductory study.

    PubMed

    Wu, YingXing; Jin, Ruyun; Gao, Guangqiang; Grunkemeier, Gary L; Starr, Albert

    2007-03-01

    With increased life expectancy and improved technology, valve replacement is being offered to increasing numbers of elderly patients with satisfactory clinical results. By using standard econometric techniques, we estimated the relative cost-effectiveness of aortic valve replacement by drawing on a large prospective database at our institution. By using aortic valve replacement as an example, this introductory report paves the way to more definitive studies of these issues in the future. From 1961 to 2003, 4617 adult patients underwent aortic valve replacement at our service. These patients were provided with a prospective lifetime follow-up. As of 2005, these patients had accumulated 31,671 patient-years of follow-up (maximum 41 years) and had returned 22,396 yearly questionnaires. A statistical model was used to estimate the future life years of patients who are currently alive. In the absence of direct estimates of utility, quality-adjusted life years were estimated from New York Heart Association class. The cost-effectiveness ratio was calculated by the patient's age at surgery. The overall cost-effectiveness ratio was approximately 13,528 dollars per quality-adjusted life year gained. The cost-effectiveness ratio increased according to age at surgery, up to 19,826 dollars per quality-adjusted life year for octogenarians and 27,182 dollars per quality-adjusted life year for nonagenarians. Given the limited scope of this introductory study, aortic valve replacement is cost-effective for all age groups and is very cost-effective for all but the most elderly according to standard econometric rules of thumb.

  3. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    PubMed

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts. Copyright © 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Potential benefits of toothpaste advertising on dental health.

    PubMed

    Kioulafas, K E; Athanassouli, T N; Weatherell, J A

    1989-03-01

    This paper considers the effect of advertising on the sales of various brands of toothpaste. It has attempted to investigate the relationship between the level of sales of a brand and those of its competitors. Econometric estimations of the demand-function for toothpaste have been made and the authors have tried to determine the interrelationships between advertisement and toothpaste sales. The findings cast doubt upon the efficiency of the present system of competitive advertisement and suggest a possible alternative approach to the marketing of toothpaste which could increase sales and, at the same time, beneficially influence dental health.

  5. The Interaction of Statistics and Geology -- Finite Deformations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-11-01

    UNCLASSIFIlED TR-178-SER-2 N 7 DIZO9 f l l ff-63f ~ l f f PRNEO VN TO TTSISF61/ EOM.’..lN 11 1 .1 2I " IIIj.5IIHL4. 1. 111 1----_III MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST ... Ramsey (1967). These might be the result of a sequence of linear deformations or homogeneous strains. In this section we summarize the description of...problem may be found in textbooks (see e.g. Theil (1971)) on Econometrics : y=B&+f, x=&+e where the errors of measurement e and f of x and y are

  6. Statistical and Economic Techniques for Site-specific Nematode Management.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zheng; Griffin, Terry; Kirkpatrick, Terrence L

    2014-03-01

    Recent advances in precision agriculture technologies and spatial statistics allow realistic, site-specific estimation of nematode damage to field crops and provide a platform for the site-specific delivery of nematicides within individual fields. This paper reviews the spatial statistical techniques that model correlations among neighboring observations and develop a spatial economic analysis to determine the potential of site-specific nematicide application. The spatial econometric methodology applied in the context of site-specific crop yield response contributes to closing the gap between data analysis and realistic site-specific nematicide recommendations and helps to provide a practical method of site-specifically controlling nematodes.

  7. GARCH modelling of covariance in dynamical estimation of inverse solutions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galka, Andreas; Yamashita, Okito; Ozaki, Tohru

    2004-12-01

    The problem of estimating unobserved states of spatially extended dynamical systems poses an inverse problem, which can be solved approximately by a recently developed variant of Kalman filtering; in order to provide the model of the dynamics with more flexibility with respect to space and time, we suggest to combine the concept of GARCH modelling of covariance, well known in econometrics, with Kalman filtering. We formulate this algorithm for spatiotemporal systems governed by stochastic diffusion equations and demonstrate its feasibility by presenting a numerical simulation designed to imitate the situation of the generation of electroencephalographic recordings by the human cortex.

  8. The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Poon, J.P.H.; Casas, I.; He, C.F.

    2006-09-15

    A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide.

  9. Energy supply and demand modeling. February 1985-March 1988 (A Bibliography from the NTIS data base). Report for February 1985-March 1988

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1990-06-01

    This bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 201 citations, none of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  10. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  11. Measuring the costs and benefits of conservation programs

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Einhorn, M.A.

    1985-07-25

    A step-by-step analysis of the effects of utility-sponsored conservation promoting programs begins by identifying several factors which will reduce a program's effectiveness. The framework for measuring cost savings and designing a conservation program needs to consider the size of appliance subsidies, what form incentives should take, and how will customer behavior change as a result of incentives. Continual reevaluation is necessary to determine whether to change the size of rebates or whether to continue the program. Analytical tools for making these determinations are improving as conceptual breakthroughs in econometrics permit more rigorous analysis. 5 figures.

  12. Energy supply and demand modeling. February 1985-March 1988 (Citations from the NTIS data base). Report for February 1985-March 1988

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1988-04-01

    This bibliography contains citations concerning the utilization of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long-term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 201 citations, 129 of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  13. Energy supply and demand modeling. April 1988-June 1990 (A Bibliography from the NTIS data base). Report for April 1988-June 1990

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1990-06-01

    This bibliography contains citations concerning the use of mathematical models in trend analysis and forecasting of energy supply and demand factors. Models are presented for the industrial, transportation, and residential sectors. Aspects of long term energy strategies and markets are discussed at the global, national, state, and regional levels. Energy demand and pricing, and econometrics of energy, are explored for electric utilities and natural resources, such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Energy resources are modeled both for fuel usage and for reserves. (This updated bibliography contains 200 citations, all of which are new entries to the previous edition.)

  14. Market structure and the role of consumer information in the physician services industry: an empirical test.

    PubMed

    Wong, H S

    1996-04-01

    This paper applies Panzar and Rosse's (1987) econometric test of market structure to examine two long-debated issues: What is the market structure for physician services? Do more physicians in a market area raise the search cost of obtaining consumer information and increase prices (Satterthwaite, 1979, 1985)? For primary care and general and family practice physicians, the monopolistically competitive model prevailed over the competing hypotheses--monopoly, perfect competition, and monopolistic competition characterized by consumer informational confusion. Although less conclisive, there is some evidence to support the monopolistically competitive model for surgeons and the consumer informational confusion model for internal medicine physicians.

  15. 3D Weight Matrices in Modeling Real Estate Prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mimis, A.

    2016-10-01

    Central role in spatial econometric models of real estate data has the definition of the weight matrix by which we capture the spatial dependence between the observations. The weight matrices presented in literature so far, treats space in a two dimensional manner leaving out the effect of the third dimension or in our case the difference in height where the property resides. To overcome this, we propose a new definition of the weight matrix including the third dimensional effect by using the Hadamard product. The results illustrated that the level effect can be absorbed into the new weight matrix.

  16. An examination of flexible spending accounts.

    PubMed

    Cardon, J H; Showalter, M H

    2001-11-01

    This paper develops a framework for analyzing flexible spending account (FSA) participation and usage. We explore patterns of FSA usage using data from a benefits firm for 1996 including an examination of types of FSA expenditures and their timing. We estimate some simple econometric models of the participation decision and also the decision of how much to put into an FSA. Several pieces of evidence suggest that much of an FSA election amount is based on foreknowledge of expenditures. We also find that participants tend to spend their election amount early, thus obtaining an interest-free loan.

  17. Effect of economic growth and environmental quality on tourism in Southeast Asian Countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Firmansyah

    2017-02-01

    The tourism is an important sector in generating income for a country, nevertheless, tourism is sensitive toward the changes in economy, as well as changes in environmental quality. By employing econometric models of error correction on annual data, this study examines the influence of environmental quality, domestic and global economic growth on foreign tourist arrivals in selected Southeast Asian countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, and Singapore. The findings of this study showed that all of countries long run model were proved statistically, indicated that world economic growth as well as environmental quality affect foreign tourism arrivals.

  18. Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2018-01-01

    We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Migration plans and hours of work in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Gillin, E D; Sumner, D A

    1985-01-01

    "This article describes characteristics of prospective migrants in the Malaysian Family Life Survey and investigates how planning to move affects hours of work. [The authors] use ideas about intertemporal substitution...to discuss the response to temporary and permanent wage expectations on the part of potential migrants. [An] econometric section presents reduced-form estimates for wage rates and planned migration equations and two-stage least squares estimates for hours of work. Men currently planning a move were found to work fewer hours. Those originally planning only a temporary stay at their current location work more hours." excerpt

  20. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  1. Econometric analysis of the impact of the relationship of GDP and the pension capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nepp, A. N.; Amiryan, A. A.

    2016-12-01

    The article demonstrates the impact of institutional risks on indicators of compulsory pension insurance and describes the results of a comparative analysis of investment risks faced by the pension systems of the Russian Federation and OECD countries. Efficiency of private companies managing pension funds in Russia and OECD countries is compared and analyzed to show the necessity to liberalize requirements placed on investments of pension savings funds. On the basis of the available statistical data, the article puts forward and discusses the hypothesis that increasing of the basic indicators of the pension system is possible by reducing its institutional risks. It is concluded that if the institutional risks are reduced and the level of trust increases, there will be enhance growth in the pension system key indicators, such as pension payments and the replacement rate.

  2. Does foreign direct investment affect environmental pollution in China's cities? A spatial econometric perspective.

    PubMed

    Liu, Qianqian; Wang, Shaojian; Zhang, Wenzhong; Zhan, Dongsheng; Li, Jiaming

    2018-02-01

    Environmental pollution has aroused extensive concern worldwide. Existing literature on the relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and environmental pollution has, however, seldom taken into account spatial effects. Addressing this gap, this paper investigated the spatial agglomeration effects and dynamics at work in FDI and environmental pollution (namely, in waste soot and dust, sulfur dioxide, and wastewater) in 285 Chinese cities during the period 2003-2014, using global and local measures of spatial autocorrelation. Our results showed significant spatial autocorrelation in FDI and environmental pollution levels, both of which demonstrated obvious path dependence characteristics in their geographical distribution. A range of agglomeration regions were observed. The high-value and low-value agglomeration areas of FDI were not fully consistent with those of environmental pollution. This result indicates that higher inflows of FDI did not necessarily lead to greater environmental pollution from a geographic perspective, and vice versa. Spatial panel data models were further adopted to explore the impact of FDI on environmental pollution. The results of a spatial lag model (SLM) and a spatial error model (SEM) revealed that the inflow of FDI had distinct effects on different environmental pollutants, thereby confirming the Pollution Heaven Hypothesis and Pollution Halo Hypothesis. The inflow of FDI was found to have reduced waste soot and dust pollution to a certain extent, while it increased the degree of wastewater and sulfur dioxide pollution. The findings set out in this paper hold significant implications for Chinese environmental pollution protection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Disentangling the influence of cell phone usage in the dilemma zone: An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Yasmin, Shamsunnahar

    2016-11-01

    This paper focuses on developing an analysis framework to study the impact of cell phone treatment (cell phone type and call status) on driver behavior in the presence of a dilemma zone. Specifically, we examine how the treatment influences the driver maneuver decision at the intersection (stop or cross) and the eventual success of the maneuver. For a stop maneuver, success is defined as stopping before the stop line. Similarly, for a cross maneuver, success is defined as clearing the intersection safely before the light turns red. The eventual success or failure of the driver's decision process is dependent on the factors that affected the maneuver decision. Hence it is important to recognize the interconnectedness of the stop or cross decision with its eventual success (or failure). Toward this end, we formulate and estimate a joint framework to analyze the stop/cross decision with its eventual success (or failure) simultaneously. The study is conducted based on driving simulator data provided online for the 2014 Transportation Research Board Data Contest at http://depts.washington.edu/hfsm/upload.php. The model is estimated to analyze drivers' behavior at the onset of yellow by employing exogenous variables from three broad categories: driver characteristics, cell phone attributes and driving attributes. We also generate probability surfaces to identify dilemma zone distribution associated with different cell phone treatment types. The plots clearly illustrate the impact of various cellphone treatments on driver dilemma zone behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting.

  5. The Latino Male Educational Trajectory: A Precollege Econometric Model and 21st Century Implications

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ortiz, Ramon, Jr.

    2017-01-01

    The twin challenges of aging demographics in the United States and the need for higher levels of education to compete in the new technology-based economy is creating a socioeconomic paradox (Friedman, 2005). As the Baby Boomer generation retires, those replacing them are increasingly a non-White population. This demographic shift is inevitable and…

  6. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  7. From deficit to surplus: An econometric analysis of US trade balance in forest products

    Treesearch

    Daowei Zhang; Ying Lin; Jeffrey P. Prestemon

    2017-01-01

    Although the US trade deficit has persisted since 1975, the country changed in 2009 from a net importer to a net exporter of forest products, emerging as the world's largest exporter of forest products. Drawing on recent data, we model the real dollar value of US exports, imports, and the trade balance in forest products to identify factors likely to explain this...

  8. Stranded cost recovery: Reregulating the electricity markets in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wagle, Pushkar Ghanashyam

    2000-10-01

    For the past few years, Stranded Cost recovery has been one of the most contentious issues regarding the restructuring of electricity markets among the regulators, researchers, and the other interested parties. Among the states that have moved towards retail competition, some have already made decisions regarding the levels of the stranded cost recovery. So the question is: how have these states handled the "stranded cost problem"? Following the introduction and the historical perspective of the industry in the first chapter, the second chapter takes a broad view for understanding the overall process of deregulation. It attempts to analyze why some states have made a rapid transition to competition in the electric utility industry, while other states are just beginning to consider the issue. White (1996) and Ando & Palmer (1998) have conducted a similar exercise. We present a more comprehensive and theoretically informed econometric analysis that sheds light over some of the crucial issues involved in restructuring, such as, stranded cost recovery, regulation of transmission and distribution sectors, and establishment of Independent System Operator, etc. This chapter offers the rationale for alternative econometric techniques, and extends the political economy analysis to incorporate actual timings of retail competition. Once we have identified the role of stranded cost in restructuring and the theoretical foundations, we study empirically the political economy of states' decisions to grant stranded cost recovery. This constitutes the third chapter. Here, we concentrate on California and Pennsylvania, two states that are at the frontiers of deregulation, and compare their respective treatments of the stranded cost. We probe the reasons behind Pennsylvania's lead over California on the path towards deregulation.

  9. Directory of Energy Information Administration model abstracts 1988

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    1988-01-01

    This directory contains descriptions about each basic and auxiliary model, including the title, acronym, purpose, and type, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. For developing models, limited information is provided. Sources for additional information are identified. Included in this directory are 44 EIA models active as of February 1, 1988; 16 of which operate on personal computers. Models that run on personal computers are identified by ''PC'' as part of the acronyms. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical listing of all basic and auxiliary EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systemsmore » and the models within these systems, and Appendix B identifies EIA models by type (basic or auxiliary). Appendix C lists developing models and contact persons for those models. A basic model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being sufficiently important to require sustained support and public scrutiny. An auxiliary model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being used only occasionally in analyses, and therefore requires minimal levels of documentation. A developing model is one designated by the EIA Administrator as being under development and yet of sufficient interest to require a basic level of documentation at a future date. EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these ''proprietary'' models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here.« less

  10. HUMAN DECISIONS AND MACHINE PREDICTIONS.

    PubMed

    Kleinberg, Jon; Lakkaraju, Himabindu; Leskovec, Jure; Ludwig, Jens; Mullainathan, Sendhil

    2018-02-01

    Can machine learning improve human decision making? Bail decisions provide a good test case. Millions of times each year, judges make jail-or-release decisions that hinge on a prediction of what a defendant would do if released. The concreteness of the prediction task combined with the volume of data available makes this a promising machine-learning application. Yet comparing the algorithm to judges proves complicated. First, the available data are generated by prior judge decisions. We only observe crime outcomes for released defendants, not for those judges detained. This makes it hard to evaluate counterfactual decision rules based on algorithmic predictions. Second, judges may have a broader set of preferences than the variable the algorithm predicts; for instance, judges may care specifically about violent crimes or about racial inequities. We deal with these problems using different econometric strategies, such as quasi-random assignment of cases to judges. Even accounting for these concerns, our results suggest potentially large welfare gains: one policy simulation shows crime reductions up to 24.7% with no change in jailing rates, or jailing rate reductions up to 41.9% with no increase in crime rates. Moreover, all categories of crime, including violent crimes, show reductions; and these gains can be achieved while simultaneously reducing racial disparities. These results suggest that while machine learning can be valuable, realizing this value requires integrating these tools into an economic framework: being clear about the link between predictions and decisions; specifying the scope of payoff functions; and constructing unbiased decision counterfactuals. JEL Codes: C10 (Econometric and statistical methods and methodology), C55 (Large datasets: Modeling and analysis), K40 (Legal procedure, the legal system, and illegal behavior).

  11. [Healthcare management of an epilepsy clinic: factors involved in the demand for health care and clinical situation of patients].

    PubMed

    García-Martín, Guillermina; Martín-Reyes, Guillermina; Dawid-Milner, Marc Stefan; Chamorro-Muñoz, M Isabel; Pérez-Errazquin, Francisco; Romero-Acebal, Manuel

    2013-05-16

    Epilepsy is a chronic illness that requires a long-term periodic follow-up of the patient and this means that as time goes by the number of patients attended increases, with the ensuing added cost for the healthcare system. To determine the factors involved in the time until an epileptic patient's next visit. Our sample consisted of a selection of patients who visited the epilepsy clinic at our hospital consecutively during one year. Their clinical situation and relationship with the medical advice they were given, together with the factors involved in the time elapsed until the next visit, were analysed by means of predictive econometric models. There is a clear association between the patient's clinical situation and the modification of the treatment proposed by the neurologist in the previous visit. The factors involved in the time until the next visit were the frequency of seizures, adverse side effects from medicines -above all those that affect cognition- and the medical advice given to the patient. Polytherapy, psychoaffective disorders or the patient's social situation were not found to be significant. Follow-up visits in a specific epilepsy clinic improves the patient's situation. This is the first analysis of the demand for healthcare in patients with epilepsy conducted by means of econometric methods and from a mixed physician-patient perspective. Since the factors that determine the time until the next visit can be modified, the number of visits per year could be reduced, thus improving patients' clinical situation. We suggest a greater amount of time should be spent per visit so as to be able to have a bearing on it and thereby cut costs in the long term.

  12. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

  13. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to −0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was −0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657

  14. Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Pricing and Welfare in Health Plan Choice.

    PubMed

    Bundorf, M Kate; Levin, Jonathan; Mahoney, Neale

    2012-12-01

    Premiums in health insurance markets frequently do not reflect individual differences in costs, either because consumers have private information or because prices are not risk rated. This creates inefficiencies when consumers self-select into plans. We develop a simple econometric model to study this problem and estimate it using data on small employers. We find a welfare loss of 2-11 percent of coverage costs compared to what is feasible with risk rating. Only about one-quarter of this is due to inefficiently chosen uniform contribution levels. We also investigate the reclassification risk created by risk rating individual incremental premiums, finding only a modest welfare cost.

  16. Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

    2009-12-01

    Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

  17. What is learned from longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking? A critical assessment.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-03-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation.

  18. Is inequality harmful for the environment? An empirical analysis applied to developing and transition countries.

    PubMed

    Clement, Matthieu; Meunie, Andre

    2010-01-01

    The object of this article is to examine the relation between social inequalities and pollution. First of all we provide a survey demonstrating that, from a theoretical point of view, a decrease in inequality has an uncertain impact on the environment. Second, on the basis of these conceptual considerations, we propose an econometric analysis based on panel data (fixed-effects and dynamic panel data models) concerning developing and transition countries for the 1988-2003 period. We examine specifically the effect of inequality on the extent of local pollution (sulphur dioxide emissions and organic water pollution) by integrating the Gini index into the formulation of the environmental Kuznets' curve.

  19. What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

  20. Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

    PubMed

    Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

    2018-05-31

    Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.