Statistical Analysis of Econometric Models
Arnold Zellner
1979-01-01
In this article, a summary of some research bearing on the statistical analysis of econometric models is reviewed. Many estimation, testing, and prediction techniques used in econometrics have just large-sample justifications. Selected Bayesian inference results relating to econometric models are reviewed. On the problem of constructing econometric models, an approach that is a blend of traditional econometric and modern time
Lee, Joonhwan
2014-01-01
This thesis consists of three chapters that cover separate topics in econometrics. The first chapter demonstrate a negative result on the asymptotic sizes of subset Anderson- Rubin tests with weakly identified nuisance ...
New Econometric Methods - Syllabus
NSDL National Science Digital Library
MIT
This course focuses on recent developments in econometrics, especially structural estimation. The topics include nonseparable models, models of imperfect competition, auction models, duration models, and nonlinear panel data. Results are illustrated with economic applications.
Econometric disequilibrium models
Richard E. Quandt
1982-01-01
Four basic strands in the disequilibrium literature are identified. Some examples are discussed and the canonical econometric disequilibrium model and its estimation are dealt with in detail. Specific criticisms of the canonical model,dealing with price and wage rigidity, with the nature of the min condition and the price-adjustment equation, are considered and a variety of modifications is entertained. Tests of
Reflections on Econometric Methodology
Peter C. B. Phillips
1988-01-01
General issues about the methodology of empirical econometric research are discussed. It is argued that the most successful paradigms for applied work are the ones that have a capacity to survive and to evolve into more useful forms as these are needed. Paradigms that embrace progressive modeling principles, such as those espoused by David Hendry, seem most amenable to this
Bootstrap Methods in Econometrics
JAMES G. MacKINNON
2006-01-01
There are many bootstrap methods that can be used for econometric analysis. In certain circumstances, such as regression models with independent and identically distributed error terms, appropriately chosen bootstrap methods generally work very well. However, there are many other cases, such as regression models with dependent errors, in which bootstrap methods do not always work well. This paper discusses a
Laws and Limits of Econometrics
Peter C. B. Phillips
2003-01-01
We start by discussing some general weaknesses and limitations of the econometric approach. A template from sociology is used to formulate six laws that characterize mainstream activities of econometrics and the scientific limits of those activities, we discuss some proximity theorems that quantify by means of explicit bounds how close we can get to the generating mechanism of the data
Econometric Studies of Higher Education.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ehrenberg, Ronald G.
The econometrics of higher education emerged from the development of human capital theory and efforts to estimate rates of return to education in the 1960s and 1970s. This paper surveys the various strands of the literature on the econometrics of higher education that have developed during the last 40 years and indicates how a collection of papers…
NSDL National Science Digital Library
1998-01-01
Designed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), MULTIMOD is a modern, dynamic, multi-country macro model of the world economy designed to study the transmission of shocks across countries as well as the short-run and medium-run consequences of alternative monetary and fiscal policies. Country sub-models include the seven largest industrial countries--Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the US--and an aggregate grouping of fourteen smaller industrial nations. Full documentation of the MULTIMOD's current variant, the Mark III Econometric Model, and its sub-models, and downloading instructions are provided as well as a bibliography of articles that either explain Multimod, apply it, or are part of its technical implementation.
New methods for econometric inference
Chetverikov, D. N. (Denis Nikolaevich)
2013-01-01
Monotonicity is a key qualitative prediction of a wide array of economic models derived via robust comparative statics. It is therefore important to design effective and practical econometric methods for testing this ...
New Econometric Methods - Reading List
NSDL National Science Digital Library
MIT
This course focuses on recent developments in econometrics, especially structural estimation. The topics include nonseparable models, models of imperfect competition, auction models, duration models, and nonlinear panel data. Results are illustrated with economic applications.
Graphical models, causal inference, and econometric models
Spirtes, Peter
Graphical models, causal inference, and econometric models Peter Spirtes Abstract A graphical model modeling has historical ties to causal modeling in econometrics and other social sciences, there have been in graphical causal modeling, and their relevance to econometrics and other social sciences. The use of graphs
The Econometrics of Financial Markets
Landweber, Laura
The Econometrics of Financial Markets John Y. Campbell, Andrew W. Lo, and A. Craig Mac in econo- metric technique or empirical results. Then, nearly four decades later, Campbell, Lo, and Mac in mod- ern financial theory and research. The book includes treatment of topics from the predictability
Fiscal Foresight: Analytics and Econometrics
Eric M. Leeper; Todd B. Walker; Shu-Chun Susan Yang
2008-01-01
Fiscal foresight---the phenomenon that legislative and implementation lags ensure that private agents receive clear signals about the tax rates they face in the future---is intrinsic to the tax policy process. This paper develops an analytical framework to study the econometric implications of fiscal foresight. Simple theoretical examples show that foresight produces equilibrium time series with a non-invertible moving average component,
An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Taff, L. G.
2010-02-01
The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )
14.32 Econometrics, Spring 2003
Angrist, Joshua David
Introduction to econometric models and techniques, emphasizing regression. Advanced topics include instrumental variables, panel data methods, measurement error, and limited dependent variable models. Includes problem sets. ...
Tier II Canada Research Chair Financial Econometrics
Sinnamon, Gordon J.
Tier II Canada Research Chair in Financial Econometrics The University of Western Ontario Research Chair in the area of Financial Econometrics, at the rank of probationary (tenure-track) Assistant the last ten years), and will be an outstanding emerging scholar who has demonstrated innovation
THE ECONOMETRICS OF CARTEL OVERCHARGES Marcel BOYER
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
THE ECONOMETRICS OF CARTEL OVERCHARGES Marcel BOYER Rachidi KOTCHONI March 21, 2011 REVISED August://www.enseignement.polytechnique.fr/economie/ mailto:chantal.poujouly@polytechnique.edu hal-00631429,version1-12Oct2011 #12;THE ECONOMETRICS OF CARTEL to model error, estimation error and publication bias. A quick glance at the Connor database reveals
Crystal study and econometric model
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
1975-01-01
An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.
Essays in econometrics and random matrix theory
Harding, Matthew C
2007-01-01
This dissertation develops new econometric procedures for the analysis of high-dimensional datasets commonly encountered in finance, macroeconomics or industrial organization. First, I show that traditional approaches to ...
Identification and Inference for Econometric Models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.
2005-07-01
This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.
High Dimensional Sparse Econometric Models: An Introduction
Belloni, Alexandre
2011-06-26
In this chapter we discuss conceptually high dimensional sparse econometric models as well as estimation of these models using ?1-penalization and post-?1-penalization methods. Focusing on linear and nonparametric regression ...
A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics
Fan, Jianqing
A selective overview of nonparametric methods in financial econometrics Jianqing Fan Department a brief overview on the nonparametric techniques that are useful for financial econometric problems (1973) launched general equilibrium model for security prices, two landmarks for modern asset pricing
Econometric Models of Asymmetric Ascending Auctions Department of Economics
Niebur, Ernst
Econometric Models of Asymmetric Ascending Auctions Han Hong Department of Economics Princeton econometric models of ascending (English) auctions which allow for both bid- der asymmetries as well as common an econometric model, thus extending the literature on structural estimation of auction models. Finally
Structural Econometric Modeling: Rationales and Examples from Industrial Organization
Peter C. Reiss; Frank A. Wolak
2003-01-01
This chapter explains the logic of structural econometric models and compares them to other types of econometric models. We provide a framework researchers can use to develop and evaluate structural econometric models. This framework pays particular attention to describing different sources of unobservables in structural models. We use our framework to evaluate several literatures in industrial organization economics, including the
On aggregation in spatial econometric modelling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Paelinck, Jean H. P.
The spatial aggregation problem - also termed the modifiable areal unit problem - has attracted regular attention in spatial statistics and econometrics. In this study econometric aggregation analysis is used to investigate the formal composition of meso-areal parameters given micro-areal underlying relations with spatial dependence. Impact on stochastic terms (possible meso-areal spatial autocorrelation) is also studied. Finally consequences for meso-areal estimation are derived, the general finding having been that spatial aggregation leads to meso-region specific parameter values, with the estimation problems this implies.
Bayesian Inference in Dynamic Econometric Models
Luc Bauwens; Michel Lubrano; Jean-Francois Richard
1999-01-01
This book contains an up-to-date coverage of the last twenty years advances in Bayesian inference in econometrics, with an emphasis on dynamic models. It shows how to treat Bayesian inference in non linear models, by integrating the useful developments of numerical integration techniques based on simulations (such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods), and the long available analytical results of
Bootstrapping an Econometric Model: Some Empirical Results
David A. Freedman; Stephen C. Peters
1984-01-01
The bootstrap, like the jackknife, is a technique for estimating standard errors. The idea is to use Monte Carlo simulation, based on a nonparametric estimate of the underlying error distribution. The bootstrap will be applied to an econometric model describing the demand for capital, labor, energy, and materials. The model is fitted by three-stage least squares. In sharp contrast with
An econometric analysis of Shanghai office rents
Qiulin Ke; Michael White
2009-01-01
Purpose – Shanghai is the most important economic centre in China. It also has the nation's largest modern office market in terms of floorspace and investment values. However, as with office markets in other cities and countries, the Shanghai market displays rental volatility. This paper aims to examine this issue. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – Rental volatility is examined by econometrically constructing a
Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
O'Hara, Michael E.
2014-01-01
Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…
Econometric models of limit-order executions
Andrew W. Lo; A. Craig MacKinlay; June Zhang
2002-01-01
We develop and estimate an econometric model of limit-order execution times using survival analysis and actual limit-order data. We estimate versions for time-to-first-fill and time-to-completion for both buy and sell limit orders, and incorporate the effects of explanatory variables such as the limit price, limit size, bid\\/offer spread, and market volatility. Execution times are very sensitive to the limit price,
Kwon, Dae-Heum
2009-05-15
CAUSALITY AND AGGREGATION IN ECONOMICS: THE USE OF HIGH DIMENSIONAL PANEL DATA IN MICRO-ECONOMETRICS AND MACRO-ECONOMETRICS A Dissertation by DAE-HEUM KWON Submitted to the Office of Graduate Studies of Texas A&M University... in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY December 2007 Major Subject: Agricultural Economics CAUSALITY AND AGGREGATION IN ECONOMICS: THE USE OF HIGH DIMENSIONAL PANEL DATA IN MICRO-ECONOMETRICS...
Some applications of functional data analysis to econometrics and finance
Kokoszka, Piotr
Some applications of functional data analysis to econometrics and finance Piotr Kokoszka Department University Hong Miao Department of Finance, Colorado State University Matthew Reimherr Department of Statistics, Penn State University Piotr Kokoszka FDA in econometrics and finance #12;Outline Functional time
Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kennedy, Peter E.
2001-01-01
Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)
Estimation and Confidence Regions for Parameter Sets in Econometric Models
Victor Chernozhukov; Han Hong; Elie Tamer
2007-01-01
This paper develops a framework for performing estimation and inference in econometric models with partial identification, focusing particularly on models characterized by moment inequalities and equalities. Applications of this framework include the analysis of game-theoretic models, revealed preference restrictions, regressions with missing and corrupted data, auction models, structural quantile regressions, and asset pricing models. Copyright The Econometric Society 2007.
Sparse Seemingly Unrelated Regression Modelling: Applications in Econometrics and Finance
Wolpert, Robert L
Sparse Seemingly Unrelated Regression Modelling: Applications in Econometrics and Finance By HAO) are frequently used in econometric, fi- nancial and sociological modelling (Zellner, 1962, 1971; Box & Tiao, 1973@stat.duke.edu Summary We present a sparse seemingly unrelated regression (SSUR) model to generate substan- tively
Author's personal copy Journal of Econometrics 147 (2008) 336349
LaFrance, Jeffrey T.
2008-01-01
Author's personal copy Journal of Econometrics 147 (2008) 336349 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Econometrics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom The structure nest functional form. The model nests rank up to rank three. The model is estimated by nonlinear three
Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics
G. S. Maddala
1989-01-01
This book presents the econometric analysis of single-equation and simultaneous-equation models in which the jointly dependent variables can be continuous, categorical, or truncated. Despite the traditional emphasis on continuous variables in econometrics, many of the economic variables encountered in practice are categorical (those for which a suitable category can be found but where no actual measurement exists) or truncated (those
Econometric analysis of Labour Market in Bulgaria - 1991-2006
Anita Staneva
2007-01-01
The paper elaborates on the problems for construction and estimation of econometric techniques for analysis of labour market in Bulgaria. It is used the econometrics vector autoregressive modeling (VAR). In the model are included and investigated the main indicators that characterize labour market functioning (unemployment, employment, wages, labour productivity and inflation). On the basis of the obtained estimates for the
Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods C. W. J. Granger
Timmer, Jens
Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-spectral Methods C. W. J. Granger #12;Econometrics, Vol. 37, No. 3 (July, 1969) INVESTIGATING CAUSAL RELATIONS BY ECONOMETRIC MODELS classes of econometric models involving feedback and the functions arising in spectral analysis
ECONOMICS 220-507: ECONOMETRICS I Dr. Kusum Mundra Rutgers University, Newark
Lin, Xiaodong
presents topics in econometrics including a review of the classical linear regression model and some and there will be a focus on using econometrics software in estimating econometrics models learned during the semester. Pre-Western College Publishing, 2006 2. Pindyck, Robert S. and Daniel I. Rubinfeld, Econometric Models and Economic
Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (principal investigators)
1979-01-01
Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.
Projecting electricity consumption with an econometric model
Sutherland, R.J.
1987-01-01
Using an econometric model estimated with state data for the period 1961-1982, long-term projections of the growth rate in electricity consumption are presented. A projection of 3.25% per year is produced by an aggregate model. Using a similar model estimated on a regional basis, an aggregate projection of 4.19% is obtained. The main variable contributing to these projections are economic expansion, broadly defined to include income and the number of customers. Although the price of electricity is a statistically significant variable, this price is projected to be approximately stable in real terms, and hence not to contribute to electricity demand. 10 references, 1 figure, 5 tables.
Kwon, Dae-Heum
2009-05-15
This study proposes one plausible procedure to address two methodological issues, which are common in micro- and macro- econometric analyses, for the full realization of research potential brought by recently available ...
The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.
Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T
2015-05-19
The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research. PMID:25989555
A GIS-Assisted Rail Construction Econometric Model that Incorporates LlDAR Data
Hodgson, Michael E.
A GIS-Assisted Rail Construction Econometric Model that Incorporates LlDAR Data David J. Cowen employed a raster GIS econometric routing model for the exploration of potential routes using construction in the grid-based econometric model was obtained from Light Detection and Ranging (LIDAR)data with accurate 0
Wolfe, Patrick J.
1999-01-01
Econometrics Journal (1999), volume 2, pp. 107Ð160. Statistical algorithms for models in state Gaussian models relevant to many areas of econometrics and statistics. Some Gaussian illustrations discusses the state space formulation for several econometric and statistical models. It also doc- uments
An Econometrics Analysis of Freight Rail Demand Growth in Albert Wijeweera a, *
this growth at about four per cent per year (BTRE, 2006). The econometric model used herein enables us1 An Econometrics Analysis of Freight Rail Demand Growth in Australia Albert Wijeweera a, * , Hong of non-bulk freight demand in Australia. The paper uses a simple but robust econometrics method
Journal of Econometrics 162 (2011) 225239 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect
Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-01-01
of Econometrics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics Zhibiao Zhao Department of Statistics, PennJournal of Econometrics 162 (2011) 225239 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal
INTERACTIVE ECONOMETRICS: A COMPUTER AIDED LEARNING APPROACH TO REGRESSION
Theodore J. Osborne
Since much of econometrics is presented graphically, it would seem that the use of computer based tutorials would be an indispensable part of learning about it. However, computer tutorials, while providing the learner with the benefits of immediate feedback, also require significant investment of time and resources on the part of their author. Also, they often feel \\
Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Six Econometrics Textbooks
California at Los Angeles, University of
a panoramic view of the state of causal thinking in econometric education which, to the best of our knowledge textbooks in terms of their math- ematical treatment of causal concepts. It highlights conceptual standards of causal analysis. We find that econonometric textbooks vary from complete denial to partial
An econometric analysis of development dynamics in modern Chinese industry
Wang Ai-ling
2009-01-01
The aim of this paper is to develop an analytic representation of Chinese labor productivity as a function of various classic and newly considered parameters. Its econometrics-based approach uses an elaborated version of the Cobb-Douglas production function, and includes both classic parameters (capital, labor ratio, average firm size, time) and new ones (proportion of output produced by enterprises of various
Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics Hal R. Varian
Varian, Hal R.
Big Data: New Tricks for Econometrics Hal R. Varian June 2013 Revised: April 14, 2014 Abstract, neural nets, deep learning and so on may allow for more effective ways to model complex relationships. In this essay I will describe a few of these tools for manipulating and an- alyzing big data. I believe
A selective overview of nonparametric methods in flnancial econometrics
Jianqing Fan
2003-01-01
This paper gives a brief overview on the nonparametric techniques that are useful for flnancial econometric problems. The problems include estimation and inferences of instantaneous returns and volatility functions, and estimation of transition densities and state price densities. We flrst brie?y describe the problems and then outline main techniques and main results. Some useful probabilistic aspects of difiusion processes are
Econometric dimensions of energy demand and supply. [8 essays
A. B. Askin; J. Kraft
1976-01-01
This book presents a set of econometric, policy-oriented studies on energy to provide a glimpse of current research in the energy economics field. Some of the eight essays report on studies directly related to FEA's Project Independence, while others bear either no relationship or only a peripheral relationship to it. In Chapter 2, John Kraft, Arthur Kraft, and Eugene Reiser
Essays on Nonparametric Series Estimation with Application to Financial Econometrics
Chang, Meng-Shiuh
2012-10-19
S & P 500 and FTSE 100 given Hangseng and Nikkei 225 is also discussed. In the second essay, I extended the semiparametric model by Chen and Fan [X. Chen, Y. Fan, Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models, Journal of Econometrics 130...
Chi-Square Diagnostic Tests for Econometric Models: Theory
Donald W K Andrews
1988-01-01
This paper extends the Pearson chi-square testing method to nondynam ic parametric econometric models, in particular, to models with covar iates. The paper establishes the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic when the test statistic is based on data-dependent random cells of a general form and on an arbitrary asymptotically normal estimator. These results a re attained by extending recent
Inference for identifiable parameters in partially identified econometric models
Joseph P. Romano; Azeem M. Shaikh
2008-01-01
This paper considers the problem of inference for partially identified econometric models. The class of models studied are defined by a population objective function Q(?,P) for ???. The second argument indicates the dependence of the objective function on P, the distribution of the observed data. Unlike the classical extremum estimation framework, it is not assumed that Q(?,P) has a unique
Economic Development and Environmental Quality: An Econometric Analysis
Nemat Shafik
1994-01-01
The relationship between economic development and environmental quality is analyzed econometrically for a large sample of countries over time. The results indicate that some indicators improve with rising incomes (like water and sanitation), others worsen and then improve (particulates and sulfur oxides), and others worsen steadily (dissolved oxygen in rivers, municipal solid wastes, and carbon emissions). Growth tends to be
Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Econometrics -a Brief Survey
P. Bergstrom
1999-01-01
This paper provides a brief survey of the bootstrap and its use in econometrics. As an introduction, the paper gives a description of the basics of the method, with a special emphasis on boostrap testing. A fairly large amount of space is devoted to discuss why bootstrap tests provide refinements compared to equivalent asymptotic tests. A series of recent different
Bootstrap Methods and Applications in Econometrics - A Brief Survey
Pål Bergström
1999-01-01
This paper provides a brief survey of the bootstrap and its use in econometrics. As an introduction, the paper gives a description of the basics of the method, with a special emphasis on boostrap testing. A fairly large amount of space is devoted to discuss why bootstrap tests provide refinements compared to equivalent asymptotic tests. A series of recent different
Regional Econometric Assessment of Aggregate Water Consumption Trends
Thomas M Fullerton Jr; David A Schauer
2004-01-01
Regional water availability is becoming an issue in many parts of the world. To accurately gauge the severity of potential supply shortfalls requires quantitative assessment of agggregate consumption trends. Regional econometric modeling and foreccasting analysis offers one means by which this objective may be achieved. Results in the paper, obtained for El Paso, Texas and Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, indicate that
REGIONAL ECONOMETRIC ASSESSMENT OF AGGREGATE WATER CONSUMPTION TRENDS1
Thomas M. Fullerton; David A. Schauer
2001-01-01
Regional water availability is rapidly becoming an issue throughout many areas of the world. To accurately gauge the severity of potential supply shortfalls requires quantitative assessment of aggregate consumption trends. Regional econometric modelling and forecasting analysis offers one means by which this objective may be attained. This requires partially expanding the traditional modelling framework to include water customer and per
Essays on Nonparametric Series Estimation with Application to Financial Econometrics
Chang, Meng-Shiuh
2012-10-19
S & P 500 and FTSE 100 given Hangseng and Nikkei 225 is also discussed. In the second essay, I extended the semiparametric model by Chen and Fan [X. Chen, Y. Fan, Estimation of copula-based semiparametric time series models, Journal of Econometrics 130...
An econometric analysis of development dynamics in modern Chinese industry
Alexander B. Hammer; Wharton Econometric
1999-01-01
The aim of this paper is to develop an analytic representation of Chinese labor productivity as a function of various classic\\u000a and newly considered parameters. Its econometrics?based approach uses an elaborated version of the Cobb?Douglas production\\u000a function, and includes both classic parameters (capital\\/labor ratio, average firm size, time) and new ones (proportion of\\u000a output produced by enterprises of various types
Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures
Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M. (Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City (United States)); Rogers, V.C.
1991-01-01
The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.
Vine Copulas as a Way to Describe and Analyze Multi-Variate Dependence in Econometrics
Kreinovich, Vladik
Vine Copulas as a Way to Describe and Analyze Multi-Variate Dependence in Econometrics@nmsu.edu Abstract. In the last decade, vine copulas emerged as a new effi- cient techniques for describing problems of econometrics, there is still a lot of confusion and misunderstanding related to vine copulas
Heavy subsidization reduces free-ridership: Evidence from an econometric study of the
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
No 50-2013 Heavy subsidization reduces free-ridership: Evidence from an econometric study subsidization reduces free-ridership: Evidence from an econometric study of the French dwelling insulation tax measures. The percentage of subsidized households that would have invested even in the absence
Causality in Economics and Econometrics An Entry for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics
Fitelson, Branden
Causality in Economics and Econometrics An Entry for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics Kevin D. Hoover Departments of Economics and Philosophy Duke University Box 90097 Durham, NC 27708;Causality in Economics and Econometrics K.D. Hoover 9 June 2006 Abstract of Causality in Economics
The Econometrics of High Frequency Per. A. Mykland and Lan Zhang
Mykland, Per A.
CHAPTER 2 The Econometrics of High Frequency Data Per. A. Mykland and Lan Zhang Department that includes people interested in finance, econometrics, statistics, probability and financial engineering, introducing the probabilistic model for such data, and then turn to the estimation question in this model. We
Growth and Technological Leadership in US Industries: A Spatial Econometric Analysis at the State. A spatially explicit growth model in which technological progress is endogenously determined is used to model, industry level, technological leadership, spatial econometrics JEL codes: C21, I23, O33, R12 Copyright 2007
Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Investigating the Role of Real Divisia Money in Persistence-Robust Econometric Models Ryan S to inappropriate aggregation methods and, ii) Two-stage inference in econometric models. Concerning the former-lag VARX models (Bauer and Maynard, 2012). These two environments allow modeling mixtures of I(0)/I(1
Enhanced Econometric Model Structures: Application to Travel Behavior and Transportation Modeling
Bustamante, Fabián E.
Enhanced Econometric Model Structures: Application to Travel Behavior and Transportation Modeling Conference Room In this presentation we introduce two innovative econometric model structures that allow us mode and station choice for commuter train users is modeled as a hierarchical choice with mode being
Journal of Econometrics 39 (1988) 175-198. North-Holland LATENT VARIABLES, CAUSAL MODELS AND
Spirtes, Peter
1988-01-01
Journal of Econometrics 39 (1988) 175-198. North-Holland LATENT VARIABLES, CAUSAL MODELS should not appear as latent in econometric models of the British case [see Klein (1961) for an example on both variables? In this paper, we describe an approach towards model specification developed more fully
Spatial econometrics functions in R: Classes and methods
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Bivand, Roger
Placing spatial econometrics and more generally spatial statistics in the context of an extensible data analysis environment such as R exposes similarities and differences between traditions of analysis. This can be fruitful, and is explored here in relation to prediction and other methods usually applied to fitted models in R. Objects in R may be assigned a class attribute, including fitted model objects. Such fitted model objects may be provided with methods allowing them to be displayed, compared, and used for prediction, and it is of interest to see whether fitted spatial models can be treated in the same way.
Essays on exponential series estimation and application of copulas in financial econometrics
Chui, Chin Man
2009-05-15
This dissertation contains three essays. They are related to the exponential series estimation of copulas and the application of parametric copulas in financial econometrics. Chapter II proposes a multivariate exponential series estimator (ESE...
Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.
2013-07-01
A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.
will here focus on some of the issues which are at the reserach frontiers in financial econometrics the support of the National Science Foundation under grant DMS-0204639. 1 #12;Discussion of paper by Jianqing
Spatial Econometric Models for Panel Data: Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Data
Kockelman, Kara M.
Spatial Econometric Models for Panel Data: Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Data By Christopher evolving, complex systems; and modeling them, both theoretically and empirically, is a complicated task importance for transportation researchers and planners. In this paper, methodologies for modeling developed
A comparison of structural and non-structural econometric models in the Toronto office market
Gole, Kimberly
2014-01-01
This thesis aims to compare five systems of econometric equations to describe the Toronto office market. It compares four structural systems differing in their demand equations and a non-structural system that does not ...
Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gerkman, Linda
2012-07-01
The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.
Saunders, Mark
Econometrics of Models with Strategic Interaction Presenter: Elie Tamer (Northwestern) Fee: HE of the econometrics questions that arise when analyzing models with multiple decision makers interacting Models (joint with Northwestern and UCL)This is a free cemmap workshop organised by: Aureo de Paula
An econometric modeling approach to short-term crude oil price forecasting
Weiqi Li; Linwei Ma; Yaping Dai; Pei Liu
2011-01-01
In the competitive petroleum markets, oil price forecasting is becoming increasingly relevant to producers and consumers. This paper develops a structural econometric model of the Brent crude spot price using the explanatory variable of defined relative inventory and OPEC production to analyze and forecast short-run oil price. A Hodrick-Prescott filter method presented obtains the relative inventory variables caused by the
An Econometric Study Of Vine Copulas D. Guganand P.A. Maugis
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
An Econometric Study Of Vine Copulas D. Guéganand P.A. Maugis PSE, Université Paris 1 Panthéon to construct vine copulas based on an underlying tree structure. This new structure is interesting to compute multivariate distributions for dependent random variables. We proove the asymptotic normality of the vine
Human Resource Management Policies and Productivity: New Evidence from An Econometric Case Study
Derek C. Jones; Panu Kalmi; Antti Kauhanen
2006-01-01
First we distinguish various approaches used by economists to assess the impact of human resource management practices on productivity and then we briefly review and illustrate studies that represent different approaches. In the main part of the paper we illustrate the econometric case study method, by using new data to analyse a case from retail trade and by emulating an
Land-Use Change and Carbon Sinks: Econometric Estimation of the Carbon Sequestration Supply Function
Ruben N. Lubowski; Andrew J. Plantinga; Robert N. Stavins
2005-01-01
When and if the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it will be necessary to decide whether carbon sequestration policies — such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation — should be part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration. In contrast with previous approaches, we econometrically
Household Plastic Waste Collection in Swedish Municipalities: A Spatial-Econometric Approach
OLLE HAGE; KRISTER SANDBERG; PATRIK SÖDERHOLM; CHRISTER BERGLUND
This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of spatial econometric methods based on cross-sectional data for 282 Swedish municipalities in 2005. The empirical results suggest that the collection of plastic packaging is positively related to collection in neighboring municipalities. The analysis also shows that
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sutton, Farah
2012-01-01
This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…
Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.
2010-01-01
This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…
Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger
2011-01-01
Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…
The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel
2014-01-01
In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Anselin, Luc
Some ideas are formulated on the challenges presented to GIS, spatial analysis and spatial econometrics that result from recent trends in social science research. These new developments are characterized by a focus on the geography of phenomena. Particular emphasis is placed on the need to extend concepts of space, to broaden the analytical toolbox and to develop software and advance education.
Katharina Pijnenburg; Konstantin A. Kholodilin
2012-01-01
Pijnenburg K. and Kholodilin K. A. Do regions with entrepreneurial neighbours perform better? A spatial econometric approach for German regions, Regional Studies. A Neoclassical production function is used to analyse the effects of knowledge spillovers via entrepreneurship on economic performance of 337 German districts. To take the spatial dependence structure of the data into account, a spatial Durbin model was
Youri Pavlovich Lukashin
2000-01-01
The paper presents an econometric analysis of the determinants of the financial situation in Russian manufacturing. Official statistics in Russia are not reliable. This is why the analysis is based on business opinion surveys carried out within `The Russian Economic Barometer' long-term research programme for monitoring and investigation of the transition to the market in Russia. The new adaptive approach
Lasse Fridström; Harald Thune-Larsen
1989-01-01
A direct demand intercity gravity model has been developed with the purpose of forecasting air traffic volumes on the entire conventional Norwegian network. The model has been calibrated econometrically using combined cross-sectional and time series data on traffic flows, fares, travel time, income, and population. Fares and travel time are taken into account for air travel as well as for
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2013 Professor Robert H. Patrick
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2013 Professor Robert H. Patrick Department of Finance of these statistical concepts to study large-sample properties of estimators (defined as the solution to an optimization problem, under various assumptions regarding the true data generating process). These large sample
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2012 Professor Robert H. Patrick
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2012 Professor Robert H. Patrick Department of Finance statistical methods and the application of these statistical concepts to study large-sample properties data generating process). These large sample results will be applied to linear and nonlinear (in
Using simulation methods for bayesian econometric models: inference, development,and communication
John Geweke
1999-01-01
This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a fixed number of completely specified models, the paper introduces subjective Bayesian tools for formal comparison of these models with
The Washington Projection and Simulation Model: A Regional Interindustry Econometric Model
Richard S. Conway
1990-01-01
Originally built in 1977, the Washington Projection and Simulation Model (WPSM) is a regional interindustry econometric model designed for forecasting and impact analysis. This article describes the most recent formulation of WPSM, analyzes the accuracy of the long-range forecasts prepared with the original model in 1976, and evaluates the model's simulation properties. The experience of developing and applying WPSM over
Norman R. Swanson; Halbert White
1997-01-01
Nine macroeconomic variables are forecast in a real-time scenario using a variety of flexible specification, fixed specification, linear, and nonlinear econometric models. All models are allowed to evolve through time, and our analysis focuses on model selection and performance. In the context of real-time forecasts, flexible specification models (including linear autoregressive models with exogenous variables and nonlinear artificial neural networks)
University of California Mathematical and Econometric Modelling of Farm Labor Demand and
Mangel, Marc
University of California Santa Cruz Mathematical and Econometric Modelling of Farm Labor Demand production model, which treats water as a fixed, exogenous input. The model takes the form of a system is a function of water supply. We use this model to asses how farmers' labor demand responds to changes
An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns
Mila Getmansky; Andrew W. Lo; Igor Makarov
2004-01-01
The returns to hedge funds and other alternative investments are often highly serially correlated. In this paper, we explore several sources of such serial correlation and show that the most likely explanation is illiquidity exposure and smoothed returns. We propose an econometric model of return smoothing and develop estimators for the smoothing profile as well as a smoothing-adjusted Sharpe ratio.
An econometric model of health care utilization and health insurance in Switzerland
Alberto Holly; Lucien Gardiol; Gianfranco Domenighetti; Brigitte Bisig
1998-01-01
This paper presents a preliminary econometric analysis on how different alternative plans affect the utilization of health care services in Switzerland. The data come from the 1992–1993 Swiss Health Survey (SHS). We briefly describe some institutional aspects of the Swiss health system which prevailed at the time of the SHS, with particular emphasis on health insurance plans and payment system
1 Introduction The hedonic housing price model is a powerful econometric tool for capturing
Wei, Yehua Dennis
1 Introduction The hedonic housing price model is a powerful econometric tool for capturing)'' (Rosen, 1974, page 44), the hedonic model establishes a formal relationship between housing values conditions, such as proximity to certain public facilities. The model is appealing in that the implicit price
Using simulation methods for Bayesian econometric models: inference, development, and communication
John Geweke
1998-01-01
This paper surveys the fundamental principles of subjective Bayesian inference in econometrics and the implementation of those principles using posterior simulation methods. The emphasis is on the combination of models and the development of predictive distributions. Moving beyond conditioning on a fixed number of completely specified models, the paper introduces subjective Bayesian tools for formal comparison of these models with
Sun, Aoran Alex
2012-01-01
Inspired by Singapore's recent effort in building its new skyline in Maria Bay, the thesis intends to employ econometric structural modeling techniques to Singapore's office market for the period from 1975 to 2011. Using ...
An Econometric Analysis of the Costs of Sequestering Carbon in Forests
Douglas J. Miller; Thomas Mauldin
1999-01-01
The Kyoto Protocol and the U.S. Climate Change Plan recognize afforestation as a potential means of reducing atmospheric CO_{2<\\/sub> concentrations. To examine the cost-effectiveness of afforestation, we use econometric land use models to estimate the marginal costs of carbon sequestration in Maine, South Carolina, and Wisconsin. Our findings include the following: (a) earlier studies of afforestation programs tend to underestimate}
Land-use change and carbon sinks: Econometric estimation of the carbon sequestration supply function
Ruben N. Lubowski; Andrew J. Plantinga; Robert N. Stavins
2006-01-01
If the United States chooses to implement a greenhouse gas reduction program, it would be necessary to decide whether to include carbon sequestration policies—such as those that promote forestation and discourage deforestation—as part of the domestic portfolio of compliance activities. We investigate the cost of forest-based carbon sequestration by analyzing econometrically micro-data on revealed landowner preferences, modeling six major private
Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Martin, J. A.
1978-01-01
Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.
Econometric-Process Models for Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Production Systems
John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo
2001-01-01
This article develops the conceptual and empirical basis for a class of empirical economic production models that can be linked to site-specific biophysical models for use in integrated assessment research. Site-specific data are used to estimate econometric production models, and these data and models are then incorporated into a simulation model that represents the decision-making process of the farmer as
An Econometric Model of the Term Structure of Interest-Rate Swap Yields
Darrell Duffie; Kenneth J Singleton
1997-01-01
This article develops a multi-factor econometric model of the term structure of interest-rate swap yields. The model accommodates the possibility of counterparty default, and any differences in the liquidities of the Treasury and Swap markets. By parameterizing a model of swap rates directly, the authors are able to compute model-based estimates of the defaultable zero-coupon bond rates implicit in the
An econometric model for resource management in competitive wireless data networks
Sajal K. Das; Haitao Lin; M. Chatterjee
2004-01-01
This article investigates the role and importance of the economic aspects that are vital to the success of wireless services deployment and provider selection by users in a competitive environment. We show how some of the econometric measures can meaningfully capture the user decisions\\/actions (e.g., churning) that can potentially be utilized by the providers in managing radio resources (e.g., bandwidth)
S. Tsolakis
2005-01-01
This thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. \\u000aChapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four shipping markets (freight, newbuilding, second-hand and demolition) are distinguished as well as a fifth one (ship
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Tsutsumi, Morito; Seya, Hajime
2009-12-01
This study discusses the theoretical foundation of the application of spatial hedonic approaches—the hedonic approach employing spatial econometrics or/and spatial statistics—to benefits evaluation. The study highlights the limitations of the spatial econometrics approach since it uses a spatial weight matrix that is not employed by the spatial statistics approach. Further, the study presents empirical analyses by applying the Spatial Autoregressive Error Model (SAEM), which is based on the spatial econometrics approach, and the Spatial Process Model (SPM), which is based on the spatial statistics approach. SPMs are conducted based on both isotropy and anisotropy and applied to different mesh sizes. The empirical analysis reveals that the estimated benefits are quite different, especially between isotropic and anisotropic SPM and between isotropic SPM and SAEM; the estimated benefits are similar for SAEM and anisotropic SPM. The study demonstrates that the mesh size does not affect the estimated amount of benefits. Finally, the study provides a confidence interval for the estimated benefits and raises an issue with regard to benefit evaluation.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Schu, Kathryn L.
Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements. Neither policy induces major increases in fuel economy.
Neirotti, Juan Pablo
of modern econometrics and to demonstrate how economic and financial time series can be modelled students undertake and advances their knowledge and skills to the methods of econometric and time-series, static and dynamic modelling as well as univariate and multivariate time series analysis. Module Learning
Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report
Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.; Jorgenson, D.W.; Stoker, T.M.
1981-03-01
This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements are developed in the report on the model specification).
A comparative analysis of errors in long-term econometric forecasts
Tepel, R.
1986-04-01
The growing body of literature that documents forecast accuracy falls generally into two parts. The first is prescriptive and is carried out by modelers who use simulation analysis as a tool for model improvement. These studies are ex post, that is, they make use of known values for exogenous variables and generate an error measure wholly attributable to the model. The second type of analysis is descriptive and seeks to measure errors, identify patterns among errors and variables and compare forecasts from different sources. Most descriptive studies use an ex ante approach, that is, they evaluate model outputs based on estimated (or forecasted) exogenous variables. In this case, it is the forecasting process, rather than the model, that is under scrutiny. This paper uses an ex ante approach to measure errors in forecast series prepared by Data Resources Incorporated (DRI), Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (Wharton), and Chase Econometrics (Chase) and to determine if systematic patterns of errors can be discerned between services, types of variables (by degree of aggregation), length of forecast and time at which the forecast is made. Errors are measured as the percent difference between actual and forecasted values for the historical period of 1971 to 1983.
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
the impact of the foreign direct investments upon the Romanian Labor Productivity both with econometric a real advantage in the governmental economic policy and in any risk investing decision problem [1, the higher investments they get, the more it leads to a higher labor productivity, which makes the economy
Ronald W. Cotterill; Lawrence E. Haller
1997-01-01
This research report is the econometric analysis of product market definition and unilateral market power that the senior author presented as expert economic witness for the state of New York in State of New York v. Kraft General Foods et al. at trial in September 1994. It is the first, and to date as of September 1997, only full-scale attempt
Sadeh, Norman M.
A Classical Moment-Based Inference Framework with Bayesian Properties: Econometric Theory identification; Iden- tification; Exponential tilting; Foundations of statistics; Asymptotic theory; Bayesian, that is to say that it converges to a point mass at the population parameter like a Gaussian distribution
George Hall; John Rust
1999-01-01
This paper studies the econometric problems associated with estimation of a stochastic process that is endogenously sampled. Our interest is to infer the law of motion of a discrete-time stochastic process fp t g that is observed only at a subset of times ft1 ,... ,tng that depend on the outcome of a probabilistic sampling rule that depends on the
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Spring 2003 Meets Wednesdays, 1-3:50 PM, Global Financial statistical methods and the application of these statistical concepts to study the large-sample properties data generating process. These large sample results will be applied to maximum likelihood (ML
George Hall; John Rust
2002-01-01
This paper studies the econometric problems associated with estimation of a stochastic process that is endogenously sampled. Our interest is to infer the law of motion of a discrete-time stochastic process {pt} that is observed only at a subset of times {t1,..., tn} that depend on the outcome of a probabilistic sampling rule that depends on the history of the
2011-01-01
Belloni, A. and Chernozhukov, V. (2011). High Dimensional Sparse Econometric Models economet- ric models. arXiv:1201.0220. Friedman, Jerome and Hastie, Trevor and Tibshirani, Robert. (2008 graphical models. Statistical Science, 27, 519-537. Wasserman, Larry and Kolar, Mladen and Rinaldo
Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039
Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL] [ORNL; Schlicher, Bob G [ORNL] [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL] [ORNL; Lantz, Margaret W [ORNL] [ORNL; Hauser, Katie R [ORNL] [ORNL
2014-01-01
Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.
Al-Mutairi, N.H.; Eltony, M.N.
1995-12-31
This paper estimates the demand for energy in Kuwait for the period 1965-1989 using two econometric models: a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) and a simultaneous-equation model (SEM). The results obtained from both models are similar. It is found that the energy demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run, and while it is elastic in the long run, the energy demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run. Both models` validation shows that the ECM performed better in replicating the past than the simultaneous model, suggesting the need to use the ECM to identify future prospects for energy demand in Kuwait.
An econometric model of the regulated emissions for fuel-efficient new vehicles
Khazzoom, J.D. [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States)] [San Jose State Univ., CA (United States)
1995-03-01
Results of recent studies suggested that because of the way the auto emissions are regulated, increasing the fuel economy of new vehicles may lead to a degradation in air quality. These results rest on the hypothesis that increasing the fuel economy of new vehicles leaves the emission rate of the regulated pollutants unchanged. This paper develops an econometric model of the emission rate of new vehicles and uses the model to test the null hypothesis that increased fuel economy leaves the emission rate unchanged. The estimation results do not reject the null. We subject the model to extensive specification tests as well, to be reasonably confident of its adequacy. 32 refs., 1 fig., 1 tab.
A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.
Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R
2007-09-01
This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors). PMID:17854577
Is public R&D a complement or substitute for private R&D? A review of the econometric evidence
Paul A. David; Bronwyn H. Hall; Andrew A. Toole
2000-01-01
Is public R&D spending complementary and thus “additional” to private R&D spending, or does it substitute for and tend to “crowd out” private R&D? Conflicting answers are given to this question. We survey the body of available econometric evidence accumulated over the past 35 years. A framework for analysis of the problem is developed to help organize and summarize the
The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Fisher, W. P., Jr.
2010-07-01
In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.
An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model
Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro
2012-01-01
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of ?25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531
An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.
Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro
2012-01-01
This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531
Peer Influences on Drug Self-Administration: An Econometric Analysis in Socially Housed Rats
Peitz, Geoffrey W.; Strickland, Justin C.; Pitts, Elizabeth G.; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A.
2013-01-01
Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, with the caveat that the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e., quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs. PMID:23412112
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.
2014-12-01
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distributions that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global changes and refine adaptive management strategies.
Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.
2012-12-01
Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation (fields in and out of production). The other three methods provide verification of the accuracy of the HLM model and create a robust comparison of the water savings estimates. Seventeen factors were used to isolate the effect of precision leveling from variations in climate, investments in other irrigation improvements, and farmers' management skills. These statistical analyses yield accurate water savings estimates because they consider farmers' actual irrigation technology and practices. Results suggest that savings from water conservation technology under farmers' actual production systems and management are less than those reported by experimental field studies. These water savings measure the 'in situ' effect of the technology, considering farmers' actual irrigation practices and technology. In terms of the accuracy of the models, HLM provides the most precise estimate of the impact of precision leveling on a field's water usage. The HLM estimate was within the 95% confidence interval of the other three models, thus verifying the accuracy and robustness of the statistical findings and model.
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Spring 2008 Meets Tuesdays, 2:30-5:20 PM, GFMC (Ackerson Hall statistical methods and the application of these statistical concepts to study large-sample properties data generating process). These large sample results will be applied to linear and nonlinear
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2010 Class meets Thursday 11:30-2:20 PM, 1 Washington of these statistical concepts to study large-sample properties of estimators (defined as the solution to an optimization problem, under various assumptions regarding the true data generating process). These large sample
Lin, Xiaodong
Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Fall 2009 Class meets Thursday 1:00-3:40 PM, 1 Washington of these statistical concepts to study large-sample properties of estimators (defined as the solution to an optimization problem, under various assumptions regarding the true data generating process). These large sample
Wetzel, B.M.
1988-01-01
This study analyzes a subsample of 523 households from the 1975 Lifestyles and Household Energy Use survey conducted for the Washington Center for Metropolitan Studies. The study explores the empirical relationship between a set of four (4) Energy-Related Attitude/Belief (ERAB) variables and household electricity and natural gas consumption and three (3) Energy-Related Discrete Choice (ERDC) variables. The ERAB variables were constructed, using principal components factor analysis, from a portion of the survey responses dealing with what households felt should be done to handle current or future energy shortages. A key finding of the study is that, in the context of a conventional econometric specification of electricity and natural gas consumption, ERAB variables are statistically significant although less significant than conventional explanatory variables for household energy consumption.
John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo; Keith Paustian
2007-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply a new method to assess economic potential for agricultural greenhouse gas\\u000a mitigation. This method uses secondary economic data and conventional econometric production models, combined with estimates\\u000a of soil carbon stocks derived from biophysical simulation models such as Century, to construct economic simulation models\\u000a that estimate economic potential for carbon sequestration.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling
2015-06-01
Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling
2014-09-01
Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.
Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.
1999-03-01
This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.
Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H.
2013-01-01
While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity. PMID:23460912
Basu, Sanjay; Yoffe, Paula; Hills, Nancy; Lustig, Robert H
2013-01-01
While experimental and observational studies suggest that sugar intake is associated with the development of type 2 diabetes, independent of its role in obesity, it is unclear whether alterations in sugar intake can account for differences in diabetes prevalence among overall populations. Using econometric models of repeated cross-sectional data on diabetes and nutritional components of food from 175 countries, we found that every 150 kcal/person/day increase in sugar availability (about one can of soda/day) was associated with increased diabetes prevalence by 1.1% (p <0.001) after testing for potential selection biases and controlling for other food types (including fibers, meats, fruits, oils, cereals), total calories, overweight and obesity, period-effects, and several socioeconomic variables such as aging, urbanization and income. No other food types yielded significant individual associations with diabetes prevalence after controlling for obesity and other confounders. The impact of sugar on diabetes was independent of sedentary behavior and alcohol use, and the effect was modified but not confounded by obesity or overweight. Duration and degree of sugar exposure correlated significantly with diabetes prevalence in a dose-dependent manner, while declines in sugar exposure correlated with significant subsequent declines in diabetes rates independently of other socioeconomic, dietary and obesity prevalence changes. Differences in sugar availability statistically explain variations in diabetes prevalence rates at a population level that are not explained by physical activity, overweight or obesity. PMID:23460912
Abercrombie, Robert K [ORNL] [ORNL; Sheldon, Frederick T [ORNL] [ORNL; Grimaila, Michael R [ORNL] [ORNL
2010-01-01
In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Pretis, F.; Hendry, D. F.
2013-10-01
We outline six important hazards that can be encountered in econometric modelling of time-series data, and apply that analysis to demonstrate errors in the empirical modelling of climate data in Beenstock et al. (2012). We show that the claim made in Beenstock et al. (2012) as to the different degrees of integrability of CO2 and temperature is incorrect. In particular, the level of integration is not constant and not intrinsic to the process. Further, we illustrate that the measure of anthropogenic forcing in Beenstock et al. (2012), a constructed "anthropogenic anomaly", is not appropriate regardless of the time-series properties of the data.
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul
2015-04-01
Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distribution that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global change and refine adaptive management strategies.
Wetzel, B.M.
1988-10-01
The study analyzes a subsample of 523 households from the 1975 Lifestyles and Household Energy Use Survey conducted for the Washington Center for Metropolitan Studies. The study explores the empirical relationship between a set of four Energy-Related Attitude/Belief (ERAB) variables, household electricity and natural gas consumption, and three Energy-Related Discrete Choice (ERDC) variables. Using principal components factor analysis, the ERAB variables were constructed from a portion of the survey responses dealing with what households felt should be done to handle current or future energy shortages. A key finding of the study is that in the context of a conventional econometric specification of electricity and natural gas consumption, ERAB variables are statistically significant, although less significant than conventional explanatory variables for household energy consumption.
Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji
2015-03-01
Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ? = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province. PMID:25515074
Google Econometrics and Unemployment Forecasting
Nikolaos Askitas; Klaus F. Zimmermann
2009-01-01
The current economic crisis requires fast information to predict economic behavior early, which is difficult at times of structural changes. This paper suggests an innovative new method of using data on internet activity for that purpose. It demonstrates strong correlations between keyword searches and unemployment rates using monthly German data and exhibits a strong potential for the method used.
Bayesian comparison of econometric models
John F. Geweke
1994-01-01
This paper integrates and extends some recent computational advances in Bayesian inference with the objective of more fully realizing the Bayesian promise of coherent inference and model comparison in economics. It combines Markov chain Monte Carlo and independence Monte Carlo with importance sampling to provide an efficient and generic method for updating posterior distributions. It exploits the multiplicative decomposition of
Panel Data Econometric Models: Theory and Application
Gao, Yichen
2013-05-20
variables (LSDV) estimator of when m(x) is replaced by ~m (x) de ned in equation (2.2.3). Substituting equation (2.2.3) into equation (2.2.4), we obtain b = arg min (Y D0 ) 0P (Y D0 ); (2.2.5) where P = [InT S]0[InT S] with S = (sh(x11...); : : : ; sh(xnT ))0 being an nT nT ma- trix. Each argument of S is an nT 1 vector of sh(x)0 = [ 0nTKh(x) nT ] 1 0nTKh(x). From equation (2.2.5) one may conclude that b = [D00PD0] 1D00PY , but this estima- 7 tor is not feasible since D00PD0...
Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis
Jordi Gal??; Mark Gertler
1999-01-01
We develop and estimate a structural model of inflation that allows for a fraction of firms that use a backward-looking rule to set prices. The model nests the purely forward-looking New Keynesian Phillips curve as a particular case. We use measures of marginal cost as the relevant determinant of inflation, as the theory suggests, instead of an ad hoc output
An Econometric Model Of Postal Delivery
Michael D. Bradley; Jeff Colvin
\\u000a The traditional economic justification for the state regulation of an industry is based upon its technological cost structure.\\u000a To put the matter simply, if a single firm can produce the industry’s output(s) more cheaply than two or more firms, then\\u000a duplicating the effort must necessarily be wasteful. In such cases, therefore, the state may wish to permit or even protect
Econometric Models of Insurance under Asymmetric Information
Pierre-André Chiappori
\\u000a The paper surveys recent empirical studies that test for or evaluate the importance of asymmetric information in insurance\\u000a relationships. I first discus the main conclusions reached by insurance theory in both a static and a dynamic framework. A\\u000a particular emphasis is put on the testable consequences that can be derived from existing models. I review several studies\\u000a exploiting these theoretical
A GENETIC APPROACH TO ECONOMETRIC MODELING
John R. Koza
1990-01-01
An important problem in economics and other areas of science is finding the mathematical relationship between the empirically observed variables measuring a system. In many conventional modeling techniques, one necessarily begins by selecting the size and shape of the mathematical model. Because the the vast majority of available mathematical tools only handle linear models, this choice is often simply a
An Econometric Model of Cattle Inventories
Randal R. Rucker; Oscar R. Burt; Jeffrey T. LaFrance
1984-01-01
Dynamic regression equations are estimated for each beef cattle breeding herd and beef cattle inventories at two levels of aggregation, the U.S. and Montana. The analysis for Montana was utilized as a guide for specification of the national equation to reduce the inference problem associated with letting the sample data help specify the model. Rational lags on average price received
Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models
Ray C Fair; Robert J Shiller
1990-01-01
The information contained in one model's forecast compared to that in another can be assessed from a regression of actual values on predicted values from the two models. The authors do this for forecasts of real GNP growth rates for different pairs of models. The models include a structural model (the Fair model), various versions of the vector autoregressive model,
The Econometric Analysis of Constructed Binary Time Series
Don Harding; Adrian Pagan
2006-01-01
Macroeconometric and Financial researchers often use secondary or constructed binary random variables that differ in terms of their statistical properties from the primary random variables used in microeconometric studies. One important di¤erence between primary and secondary binary variables is that while the former are, in many instances, independently distributed (i.d.) the later are rarely i.d. We show how popular rules
Warming and Dimming: An Econometric Assessment of Climate Change
Victoria Prowse; James Reade; Simon Quinn; Melissa Dell; Tom Holden; Thomas Flury
Global warming is a serious concern for policy in the present context. In this research, we explore the different effects of carbon dioxide and aerosols upon that process. Carbon dioxide is known to have a deleterious effect upon climate. Before now, political action taken to fi ght global warming has aimed mainly at reducing the emission of carbon dioxide. Nobel
An Econometric Analysis of U.S. Foreign Direct Investment
Ray Barrell; Nigel Pain
1996-01-01
This paper constructs a theoretical model of foreign direct investment and examines the extent to which the model can explain the level of outward direct investment by U.S. companies over the last two decades. The authors find that market size and factor costs, both labor and capital, are important factors in the investment decision. Instrumental variable estimation is used to
The Econometric Analysis of Tomato Production with contracting in Turkey
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Gunes, Erdogan
Turkey is the largest grower of processing tomatoes in the world after the US, Italy, China and Spain. Growing tomatoes for sauce is one of the two major uses of contract farming in Turkey and this activity involves arrangements between private sauce companies and farms. This practice is now wide spread since the 1970s, especially in the Marmara Region. Before the production season begins, sauce industry firms sign contracts with farms that guarantee the quality and quantity of their raw material and guarantee the growers sales at predetermined prices. In addition, plants served to farmers for more productivity by techniques such as drop irrigation and also their extension services and field demonstrations at this region. This research is based on interviews with 100 farms that growing tomatoes for sauce factories in Bursa province to determine relationships between plants and farms and factors affecting tomato cultivation land. At this research, farms were divided to two groups based on tomatoes cultivation land. It was found that plants had highly effective on tomatoes land by means of input and supports on finance to the farms with logarithmic models.
An econometric analysis of the market for natural gas futures
Walls, W.D. [Univ. of Hong Kong (Hong Kong)
1995-12-31
This research tests a form of the efficient markets hypothesis in the market for natural gas futures. Unlike other studies of future markets, the test for market efficiency is conducted at numerous locations which comprise the natural gas spot market in addition to the delivery location specified in the futures contract. Natural gas spot and futures prices are found to be nonstationary and accordingly are modeled using recently developed maximum likelihood cointegrated with nearly all of the spot market prices across the national network of gas pipelines. The hypothesis of market efficiency can be rejected in 3 of the 13 spot markets. 29 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.
Multivariate Skew-t Distributions in Econometrics and Environmetrics
Marchenko, Yulia V.
2012-02-14
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 II A HECKMAN SELECTION-T MODEL . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 A. Heckman Selection Models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 1. Classical Heckman sample-selection model . . . . . . . 12 2. Link to extended skew-elliptical distributions... of lean body mass on weight and height. . . . 71 11 Skew-t regression of lean body mass on weight and height. . . . . . . 72 12 Skew-normal regression analysis of the AIS data. . . . . . . . . . . . 85 13 Skew-normal regression of lean body mass...
Econometrics of the Basu Asymmetric Timeliness Coefficient and Accounting Conservatism
BALL, RAY
A substantial literature investigates conditional conservatism, defined as asymmetric accounting recognition of economic shocks (“news”), and how it depends on various market, political, and institutional variables. Studies ...
Three Essays on Semiparametric Econometrics: Theory and Application
Li, Hongjun
2014-04-25
.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l ll l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l... l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l ll l ll l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.2 0...
Income, Energy Taxation, and the Environment: An Econometric Analysis
Tarek Ghalwash
2006-01-01
This thesis consists of four papers: two of them deal with the relationship between consumption, energy taxation, and emissions on macro level, and two of them focus on the effects of changes in consumption and income on the environmental quality on a micro level. The main objective of paper [I] is to examine how exogenous technological progress, in terms of
Discussion on Agricultural Econometrics: Its History and Its Future
McCarl, Bruce A.
in the presentation. 3 W.S. Jevons 4 F.Y. Edgeworth #12;More Early Concerns Alfred Marshall seconded Edgeworth to me impracticable. (Quoted in Stigler Ecmt.1962:7) Alfred Marshall Henry Moore's 1914 work (Economic was a bit more careful. He recognized Marshall's caution with respect to ceteris paribus: The `demands
Partially Adaptive Econometric Methods For Regression and Classification
James V. Hansen; James B. McDonald; Panayiotis Theodossiou; Brad J. Larsen
2010-01-01
Assumptions about the distributions of domain variables are important for much of statistical learning, including both regression\\u000a and classification problems. However, it is important that the assumed models are consistent with the stylized facts. For\\u000a example selecting a normal distribution permits modeling two data characteristics—the mean and the variance, but it is not\\u000a appropriate for data which are skewed or
Econometric Approach to Water Use Estimation in Power Plants
Perini Praveena Sri
2010-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to examine water use estimation in hydel and thermal electric power plants in selected regions i.e. Coastal, Rayalaseema and Telangana regions of Andhra Pradesh. The study primarily focuses on the realistic fundamental premise thatthermal electric and hydro electric energy generation is responsible for the largest monthly volume of water withdrawals in four seasons (i.e.
Econometric Approach to Water Use Estimation in Power Plants
Perini Praveena Sri
2010-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to examine water use estimation in hydel and thermal electric power plants in selected regions i.e. Coastal, Rayalaseema and Telangana regions of Andhra Pradesh. The study primarily focuses on the realistic fundamental premise that thermal electric and hydro electric energy generation is responsible for the largest monthly volume of water withdrawals in four seasons
An econometric model of the Texas softwood pulpwood stumpage market
Carter, Douglas Ray
1989-01-01
). If processed residues in the form of chips from lumber and plywood production are taken into account, that figure might be as high as 50 percent (Cart. er and O'Laughlin 1989). This paper follows the style and form found in Forest Science. PROBLEM STATEMENT.... t to pay tribute to my mother and father, and especially my wife, Anna, for their constant love and encouragement. TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT Page ACKNOWLEDGMENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS iv LIST OF TABLES LIST OF FIGURES var viii INTRODUCTION PROBLEM...
An econometric analysis of prices for Texas grapefruit
Gutierrez-Villarreal, Jorge
1967-01-01
-65 1965-66 550&160 449, 268 645, 872 814, 811 735, 462 869&167 827 98o 772, 947 618, 120 7 G0, 357 681&360 o68, 355 /56, 968 591)302 617, 90'/ 665)o05 633, 123 45. 8 /l 3 9 46. 0 58 53 5 50. 4 54. 8 5]. . 1 48. 0 47. 0 47. 0 52... or Texas, varv- ing from 2~). j percer t in . 'o~a 8-", g to zero pez cert in 1'362- 6) p S5. 2 percent f o Florid. -. , 4 . ~ percent f or Arizona, and $. 8 pe ccz, t fo Cali "ozni, "'able 6. izz summary, it can be said that during the lgL', -8 ? 65...
Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change
DONALD W. K. ANDREWS; RAY C. FAIR
1988-01-01
This paper extends the classical test for structural change in line ar regression models (see Chow\\\\1960\\\\) to a wide variety of nonlinear models, estimated by a variety of different procedures. Wald, Lagran ge multiplier-like, and likelihood ratio-like test statistics are int roduced. The results allow for heterogeneity and temporal dependence of the observations. In the process of developing the above
Equilibrium and Economic Growth: Spatial Econometric Models and Simulations
Bernard Fingleton
2001-01-01
Neoclassical theory assumes diminishing returns to capital and spatially constant exogenously-determined technological progress, although it is questionable whether these are realistic assumptions for modeling manufacturing productivity growth variations across European Union (E.U.) regions. In contrast, the model developed in this paper assumes increasing returns and spatially varying technical progress, and is linked to endogenous growth theory and particularly to 'new
On unification of the asymptotic theory of nonlinear econometric models
Jose F. Burguete; A. Ronald Gallant; Geraldo Souza
1982-01-01
After reading a few articles in the nonlinear econonetric literature one begins to notice that each discussion follows roughly the same lines as the classical treatment of maximum likelihood estimation. There are some technical problems having to do with simultaneously conditioning on the exogenous variables and subjecting the true parameter to a Pittman drift which prevent the use of the
Do Youths Substitute Alcohol and Marijuana? Some Econometric Evidence
Frank J. Chaloupka; Adit Laixuthai
1997-01-01
This paper examines the substitutability of alcoholic beverages and marijuana among youths. Results indicate that drinking frequency and heavy drinking are negatively related to beer prices, but positively related to the full price of marijuana. The implications of this for driving while intoxicated are examined using self-reported involvement in non-fatal accidents and state-level youth motor vehicle accident fatality rates. The
Cost savings from nuclear regulatory reform: An econometric model
Canterbery, E.R. [Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States)]|[Ben Johnson Associates, Inc., Tallahassee, FL (United States); Johnson, B. [Ben Johnson Associates, Inc., Tallahassee, FL (United States); Reading, D. [Ben Johnson Associates, Inc., Boise, ID (United States)
1996-01-01
The nuclear-generated power touted in the 1950s as someday being {open_quotes}too cheap to meter{close_quotes} got dismissed in the 1980s as incapable of being both safe and cost effective. Today, less than 20 percent of American`s electricity is nuclear-generated, no new plants are planned or on order, and some of the earliest units are scheduled for decommissioning within the next decade. Even so, interest in nuclear power has been revived by increasing energy demands, concerns about global warming, and the uncertainty surrounding oil resources in the Persian Gulf. As a long-term alternative to fossil fuels, atomic energy offers the important advantages of clean air and domestic availability of fuel. But these advantages will count for little unless and until the costs of nuclear power can be seen as reasonable. The authors premise is that the relevant costs are those of providing safe and environmentally clean electric energy. To the extent that increased costs have resulted from increasingly stringent regulations, they reflect the internalization of external costs. Indeed, the external costs of nuclear power (particularly safety and environmental protection) have been internalized to a greater degree than with most alternative fuel sources used by electric utilities. Nuclear construction costs are properly compared with those of alternative sources only after the latter are adjusted for environmental damage and endangerment, including, as examples, the costs of oil spills, of building double-hulled tankers, and of building off-shore offloading facilities. A shift to nuclear sources could reduce these costs whereas it would increase disposal costs for radioactive materials. The authors contend that a better understanding of nuclear plant construction costs is pivotal to a balanced evaluation of the merits of uranium relative to other fuel choices. 12 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs.
An Econometric Model of the U.S. Wine Industry.
Wohlgenant, Michael K.
1985-01-01
, and production and inventories of domestic wine; (b) demand and supply of grapes crushed for wine production and grapes dried for raisins; (c) demand and supply of grapes sold for fresh use and grape~ sold for canned use; and (d) acreage, yield, and production... of grapes. There are three main types of grapes which have alternative uses. Raisin grapes (mainly Thompson Seedless) can be dried, crushed, sold for fresh consumption, or sold for canning. Table grapes (e.g., Tokay) can be sold for fresh consumption...
An Econometric Analysis of the Operating Profit of Romanian Companies
Adriana DEACONU
2011-01-01
This paper aims to contribute to the empirical literature by employing a panel data model for analysing the connection between operating profit of Romanian companies and the turnover, tangible assets, payrolls, stocks and cash. We find that the companies with a higher turnover recorded better economic results and an increased payroll is associated with a decline in economic performance. Likewise,
An econometric analysis of prices for Texas grapefruit
Gutierrez-Villarreal, Jorge
1967-01-01
+ . 00370y (. 191) (. 00083) Xf = 6. 441 Means: Xz Where: Xz. q y . 437q + . 00000y 11 3067 X? 9 2067 Xf ? 2 1000 q 9 o333 y 1666 GG G. S. azu:ual average retail pr'ce for orapefruit (cents per pound) U. S. annual averag fam-retail price spread...
Econometric Analyses of Public Water Demand in the United States
Bell, David
2012-02-14
Two broad surveys of community- level water consumption and pricing behavior are used to answer questions about water demand in a more flexible and dynamic context than is provided in the literature. Central themes of price representation...
An Econometric Model of the U.S. Wine Industry.
Wohlgenant, Michael K.
1985-01-01
of the per capita quantity dried, per capita beginning inventories of rai sins, per capita income, and lagged price of raisin grapes dried. Beginning inventories were converted to a fresh weight basis and were added to the current-year quantity of raisin...-level price for rai sins, ending inventories of raisins, and the proportion of the supply of raisin grapes crushed, respectively. All parameter estimates have the expected signs and are of reasonable magnitudes. A negative mean short-run price flexibility...
An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism
Walter Enders; Todd Sandler; Gerald F. Parise
1992-01-01
This paper quantifies the impact that terrorism has had on tourism since 1970. To accomplish this task, the authors estimate a forecasting equation for a country's (region's) share of tourism using an ARIMA model with a transfer function based on the time series of terrorist attacks in the country (or region). Their results focus on three European countries--Greece, Italy, and
Object-Oriented Econometrics: Matrix Programming in C++ Using GCC and NEWMAT
Dirk Eddelbuttel
1996-01-01
Object-oriented programming using C plus plus offers features that can be as beneficial for econometricians as they are for other programmers. This review considers the standard programming paradigm and then discusses object-oriented programming, in particular the C plus plus language. Both GCC, a C plus plus complier available free of charge from the GNU Project, and the newmat matrix class
Limit on Saudi Arabia's oil pricing policy: a short-run econometric-simulation model
Bagour; O. S. M
1985-01-01
Absence of a unified OPEC policy is largely attributed to frequent Saudi Arabian pricing\\/production decisions to influence oil price changes. Such demonstrated ability in the past prompted many to attribute oil price current downward rigidity to Saudi Arabian unwillingness to increase production. Empirically, this study presents a simultaneous equations oil market model in a simulation setting to test this hypothesis
Econometric analysis applied to urban property transactions in Havana between 1994-2007
Fernández R. N
2009-01-01
This research allows me to corroborate and demonstrate my judgment about urban transactions in Havana with more credible and consistent information. It is one thing to observe a process, and another to prove where the thinking was accurate or mistaken. The determination of the price per square meter of urban land and buildings, that is quite a routine in other
An Econometric Perspective on Classroom Reading Instruction. Research Series No. 22.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Brown, Byron W.; Saks, Daniel H.
Elements of economic production theory are applied to the relation between time and student learning. The analysis takes into account that individual students matter, that students are often taught in classes, and that jointness in production is the rule rather than the exception. The values teachers place on the different possible educational…
Determining Transit’s Impact on Seoul Commercial Land Values: An Application of Spatial Econometrics
Jin Kim; Ming Zhang
2005-01-01
Literature regarding transit’s impact on land values reports mixed results concerning the economic benefits of accessibility to subway stations, specifically regarding commercial properties. After examining 731 commercial land values in Seoul, Korea, this study suggests a possible explanation for the mixed results: transit’s discrimination impact on land values by location in a built-up urban area. The regression coefficient for distance
Effects of Urban Land Supply Policy on Real Estate in China: An Econometric Analysis
Hong Zhang
Since 2005, the Chinese government has frequently strengthened controls on the real estate market. Land supply policy was included in the system of state macro-control on the real estate market and state economic development. This paper examines the following issues after analyzing the panel data of Yunnan Province and other provinces of China. (1) Does land supply have significant effects
Rebecca Schrock
2010-01-01
An increasing number of studies deals with consumer decisions regarding organic food, but only a few provide quantitative estimates of price and income elasticities. This paper contributes to the existing literature by providing own-price elasticity estimates as well as an analysis of the sociodemographic determinants of demand for organic milk. The analysis is based on the GfK Consumer Scan Scanner
Workers' Health in Latin America: An Econometric Analysis of Work-Related Injuries
Antonio Giuffrida; Roberto F. Iunes; Héctor Macías
2001-01-01
Occupational health is increasingly recognized as an important public health issue in Latin American and the Caribbean. One major concern is the absence of reliable data on its magnitude and economic consequences. The first part of the paper presents the official statistics on workplace injuries, which suggest that workers in the Region are exposed to occupational risks that are significantly
Townsend, Robert
We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural ...
Firm and Employee Effects of an Enterprise Information System: Micro-econometric Evidence
Derek C. Jones; Panu Kalmi; Antti Kauhanen
2010-01-01
We investigate the impact of adopting an enterprise resource planning (ERP) system on performance changes and employee outcomes in a retail chain. We find that: (i) sales and inventory turnover initially drop by 7 % and recover in 6-12 months; (ii) inventory turnover recovers more quickly for establishments that adopt ERP later; (iii) employee outcomes, including increased workload, greater job
Firm and employee effects of an enterprise information system: Micro-econometric evidence
Derek C. Jones; Panu Kalmi; Antti Kauhanen
2011-01-01
We investigate the impact of adopting an Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system in a retail chain and find interesting parallels between firm and employee outcomes. Concerning performance: (i) sales and inventory turnover initially drop by 7% and recover in 6–12 months; (ii) inventory turnover recovers more quickly for establishments adopting ERP later; and (iii) broader training produces faster sales recovery.
Essays on econometric modeling of subjective perceptions of risks in environment and human health
Nguyen, To Ngoc
2009-05-15
A large body of literature studies the issues of the option price and other ex-ante welfare measures under the microeconomic theory to valuate reductions of risks inherent in environment and human health. However, it does not offer a careful...
Do Roads Cause Deforestation? Using Satellite Images in Econometric Analysis of Land Use
Gerald C. Nelson; Daniel Hellerstein
1997-01-01
In this paper we demonstrate how satellite images and other geographic data can be used to predict land use. A cross-section model of land use is estimated with data for a region in central Mexico. Parameters from the model are used to examine the effects of reduced human activity. If variables that proxy human influence are changed to reflect reduced
ECONOMETRIC MODELLING AND FORECASTING OF FREIGHT TRANSPORT DEMAND IN GREAT BRITAIN
Shujie Shen; Tony Fowkes; Tony Whiteing; Daniel Johnson
Empirically derived estimates of freight transport demand elasticities and accurate forecasts of future demand are important for freight planning and policy making. The sensitivity of freight transport demand to the changes of its determinants can help policy makers to evaluate alternative policy options in controlling future freight transportation growth, emissions reductions or modal shift. Accurate forecasts can provide information on
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mushrush, Christopher E.
2013-01-01
Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…
Scott J. Wallsten
2001-01-01
This paper explores the effects of privatization, competition, and regulation on telecommunications performance in 30 African and Latin American countries from 1984 through 1997. Fixed-effects regressions reveal that competition--measured by mobile operators not owned by the incumbent--is correlated with increases in the per capita number of mainlines, payphones, and connection capacity, and with decreases in the price of local calls.
THE SPARTA Model: An Econometric Analysis of Consumer Behaviour under Risk
Mario Mazzocchi; Alexandra E. Lobb; W. Bruce Traill
2006-01-01
This paper explores the role of trust in food safety information in determining consumer choice in relation to socio-demographic effects and other determinants. The complexity of factors influencing the way a consumer processes food safety information makes it difficult to develop adequate risk communication strategies. This is, however, a priority for current European policy and this paper tries to answer
The impact of the congestion charge on the retail business in London: An econometric analysis
Mohammed A. Quddus; Michael G. H. Bell; Jan-Dirk Schmöcker; Achille Fonzone
2007-01-01
On 17 February 2003, London introduced a pioneering congestion-charging scheme. The impact on traffic was sudden and dramatic. For example, car movements within the congestion-charging zone (21km2) were reduced by about 30%. However, the impact on other activities, such as retail business within the charged zone, is taking longer to become evident. Many unusual events happened in close succession in
SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)
The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...
Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan
2015-01-01
Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692
ECONOMIC MODELLING OF WATER SUPPLY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPRODUCT FIRM
Research was conducted to develop a comprehensive economic model that could use the neoclassical theory of the multiproduct firm to analyze the production structure of water supply. The project attempts to meet the need for in-depth analysis of the cost and economic structure of ...
Econometrics of testing for jumps in financial economics using bipower variation
Wolfe, Patrick J.
between jumps and continuous sample path price movements is important as it has implications for risk using low frequency return data (e.g. the parametric models of Eraker, Johannes, and Polson (2003 on the quadratic variation process (e.g. Back (1991)). Asset pricing theory links the dynamics of increments
Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology
2005-01-01
Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product ...
Richard Fowles; Peter D. Loeb; Wm. A. Clarke
2010-01-01
This paper examines the potential effect of cell phones on motor vehicle fatality rates normalized for other driving related and socioeconomic factors. The model used is non-linear so as to address both life-taking and life-saving attributes of cell phones. The model is evaluated using classical methods along with Bayesian Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA). The use of both classical and Bayesian
A Family Hitch : Econometrics of the New and the Used Car Markets
Sylvain Prado
2010-01-01
Everybody knows that the new cars of today are used cars of tomorrow and some people assume a competition between new and used markets. There are numerous, preconceived ideas and academic theories regarding the interactions between primary and secondary markets. To investigate the relations, we provide a macroeconomic analysis of the French, the British and the US car markets. We
Consumers' responses to fuel-efficient vehicles: a critical review of econometric studies
Kenneth Train
1979-01-01
In an effort to conserve fuel, Congress required that automobile manufacturers increase the average fuel efficiency of the vehicles which they sell. The extent to which this policy is successful in conserving fuel depends on how consumers respond to the more fuel-efficient vehicles. The present paper reviews previous economic research on automobile demand and examines what this research can tell
Matsukawa, Isamu [Central Research Institute, Tokyo (Japan); Fujii, Yoshifumi [Bunkyo Univ., Kanagawa (Japan); Madono, Seishi [Senshu Univ., Kanagawa (Japan)
1993-12-31
In this paper, we analyze interfuel substitution according to Japanese manufacturing sectors. We examine the impact of environmental regulations and technical changes on fuel choice, and the effects of price on fuel substitution, using pooled data on fuel consumption and purchase price for 58 regions in the period 1980-88. The empirical results, based on the estimation of translog unit fuel cost functions by sector, indicate that (1) substitution possibilities were found for most combinations of fuel types in every sector; and (2) environmental regulations and technical changes significantly impact fuel consumption for most sectors, but their effects on fuel demand differ both across sectors and fuel types. 19 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.
An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal
Slade, M.E.
1980-01-01
In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.
Townsend, Robert M; Urzua, Sergio S
2009-09-01
We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953
Vincenzo Scoppa
2008-01-01
Many incentive contracts are based on subjective evaluations and contractual disputes depend on judges’ decisions. However,\\u000a subjective evaluations raise risks of favouritism and distortions. Sport contests are a fruitful field for testing empirically\\u000a theories of incentives. In this paper the behaviour of the referees in the Italian soccer (football) league (“Serie A”) is\\u000a analyzed. Using data on injury (or extra)
Journal of Econometrics 140 (2007) 425449 Stochastic volatility with leverage: Fast and efficient
Wolfe, Patrick J.
2007-01-01
the Bayesian approach of Kim et al. (1998) (KSC) has become well established (for example, Mahieu and Schotman, 1998; Primiceri, 2005; Stroud et al., 2003). A salient feature of the KSC approach is that it produces of any well-constructed MCMC algorithm. It has long been believed, however, that the KSC approach cannot
An econometric approach to understanding the international tourism flows from Japan to Taiwan
Chang, Chun-Ling
1993-01-01
travelers has doubled from 1986 to 1990 (Bywater 1990). Japanese overseas investment is another helper for progressing Japan's outbound travel market. Many Japanese owned tourism related properties such as hotels, resorts, restaurants, and shopping mails... great efforts on promoting outbound travels and been identified to be the largest market for nations interested in exporting tourism and related goods. In particular, the ten million programme announced in 1987 stimulated a large amount of Japanese...
Forecasting the monthly volume of orders for southern pine lumber - an econometric model
Jackson, Ben Douglas
1973-01-01
, on the other hand, gave very good results, as evidenced by the fact that the independent variables retained in the final forecasting equation (the price indices of Douglas-fir, softwood plywood, and clay products; seasonal indices of orders, and residential... for Study Statement of Problem Review of Previous Work Ob)ectives 1 6 7 11 REVIEW OF FORECASTING TECHNIQUES 12 Time-Series Analysis ~ Secular Trend Cyclical Fluctuations Seasonal Variations . Irregular Movements Multiple Linear Regression...
Power law distribution in high frequency financial data? An econometric analysis
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Todorova, Lora; Vogt, Bodo
2011-11-01
Power law distributions are very common in natural sciences. We analyze high frequency financial data from XETRA and the NYSE using maximum likelihood estimation and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test whether the power law hypothesis holds also for these data. We find that the universality and scale invariance properties of the power law are violated. Furthermore, the returns of Daimler Chrysler and SAP traded simultaneously on both exchanges follow a power law at one exchange, but not at the other. These results raise some questions about the no-arbitrage condition. Finally, we find that an exponential function provides a better fit for the tails of the sample distributions than a power law function.
Journal of Econometrics 113 (2003) 3348 www.elsevier.com/locate/econbase
Spirtes, Peter
2003-01-01
and economists for the presentation of expert testimony in legal proceedings. In this paper, we describe), and Zeisel and Kaye (1997). In many legal contexts the central issue is causal. In some, the causes the accident, or was it the failure of the anti-lock braking system in the trailing driver's car? In others
Zhao, Zhibiao
2011-06-01
We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601
A joint econometric model of macroeconomic and term-structure dynamics
Peter Hördahl; Oreste Tristani; David Vestin
2006-01-01
We construct and estimate a tractable model of macroeconomic and yield curve dynamics. Bond yields are affine in the state variables of a forward-looking macromodel, and are derived assuming absence of arbitrage opportunities. Our approach allows us to interpret the dynamics of yields and risk premia in terms of macroeconomic fundamentals. In an application to German data, the forecasting performance
Econometric Modelling of World Oil Supplies: Terminal Price and the Time to Depletion
Mohaddes, Kamiar
2012-03-02
demand, it is dependent on the world real interest rate and the total life-time stock of oil resources, as well as on the marginal extraction and scarcity cost parameters. The theoretical predictions of this model are evaluated using data on the cost...
An econometric model integrating conservation measures in the residential demand for energy
Khazzoom, H.D.
1986-01-01
The contents of this book are: PART I: BACKGROUND. The Engineering Effect of Conservation. An Economic Analysis of the Effect of Conservation. A Glance at the State of the Art. Issues in the Quantification of Conservation Impact on the Residential Demand for Electricity. PART II: MODEL SPECIFICATION. The Incorporation of the Applicance Efficiency Variable. Incorporation of Thermal Integrity and Awareness Variables in the Model. Specification of Other Demand-Determining Variables. PART III: ESTIMATION. Problems of Estimation. Consistent Estimation. References.
The Role of the List Price in Housing Markets: Theory and an Econometric Model
Joel L. Horowitz
1992-01-01
Houses are routinely sold at prices below, but rarely sold at prices above, their list price. List prices appear to be price ceilings that preclude the possibility of sales at higher prices. This paper presents a theory of sellers' behavior that explains why there are list prices in housing markets and why list prices are distinct from sellers' reservation prices.
Econometric models for count data with an application to the patents?R&Drelationship
Jerry A. Hausman; Bronwyn H. Hall; Zvi Griliches
1984-01-01
This paper focuses on developing and adapting statistical models of counts (non-negative integers) in the context of panel data and using them to analyze the relationship between patents and R&D expenditures. The model used is an application and generalization of the Poisson distribution to allow for independent variables; persistent individual (fixed or random) effects, and \\
Econometrics of inventory holding and shortage costs: the case of refined gasoline
Krane, S.D.
1985-01-01
This thesis estimates a model of a firm's optimal inventory and production behavior in order to investigate the link between the role of inventories in the business cycle and the microeconomic incentives for holding stocks of finished goods. The goal is to estimate a set of structural cost function parameters that can be used to infer the optimal cyclical response of inventories and production to shocks in demand. To avoid problems associated with the use of value based aggregate inventory data, an industry level physical unit data set for refined motor gasoline is examined. The Euler equations for a refiner's multiperiod decision problem are estimated using restrictions imposed by the rational expectations hypothesis. The model also embodies the fact that, in most periods, the level of shortages will be zero, and even when positive, the shortages are not directly observable in the data set. These two concerns lead us to use a generalized method of moments estimation technique on a functional form that resembles the formulation of a Tobit problem. The estimation results are disappointing; the model and data yield coefficient estimates incongruous with the cost function interpretations of the structural parameters. These is only some superficial evidence that production smoothing is significant and that marginal inventory shortage costs increase at a faster rate than do marginal holding costs.
An econometric approach to understanding the international tourism flows from Japan to Taiwan
Chang, Chun-Ling
1993-01-01
industries for developing the national economy of various countries all over the world. In recent years, tourism products in countries such as U. S. , France, Spain, Japan, and many other major tourists' destinations occupy a large portion of exporting... from the inbound foreign tourism industry has greatly helped the financial problems for lifting Taiwan into a developed country from a developing area. Secondly, the job opportunities created by the tourism industry have reduced the pressure...
Syllabus for SS-223A: Advanced Topics in Econometric Theory: Asymptotics of Optimization Estimators
Low, Steven H.
's a tentative schedule for the term: Week 1 1st HW assigned Week 3 1st HW due, 2nd HW assigned Week 5 2nd HW due, 3rd HW assigned Week 7 3rd HW due, 4th HW assigned Week 9 4th HW due 12/05 last day of class 2 #12;
Econometric Methods to Analyze Consumer Behavior Using Hypothetical and Non-hypothetical Approaches
Collart Dinarte, Alba Jeanette
2013-11-22
. Moreover, Random Effects Tobit models are estimated to investigate differences in WTP among latent classes. The three latent classes found were characterized as: “Fee-Chasers”, “Certification Conscious”, and “Taste Conscious”. Results reveal...
The Impact Of Oil And Gas Production On The Nigerian Economy: A Rural Sector Econometric Model
Matthew Nga
The oil economy of Nigeria is very important to the country, but the people of Nigeria still suffer from a corrupt government. Despite the revenues being brought in from oil exports, the Nigerian government still holds a large unemployment rate and a high poverty rate. This paper shows the amount of oil being produced per day, as well as, the
Ashok Parikh
2006-01-01
The objectives of this article are to study the impact of liberalization on growth, the trade deficits, and the current accounts of developing countries. It is expected that trade liberalization would promote economic growth from the supply side by leading to a more efficient use of resources, by encouraging competition, and by increasing the flow of ideas and knowledge across
Econometric Analysis via Filtering for Financial Ultra-High Frequency (UHF) Data
Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri
Poisson). Modeling High Frequency Data in Finance, Stevens Institute of Technology, July 10 - 12, 2009 Â p; ) Modeling High Frequency Data in Finance, Stevens Institute of Technology, July 10 - 12, 2009 Â p. 4/37 #12 of MPP: Zeng (2003) Modeling High Frequency Data in Finance, Stevens Institute of Technology, July 10
Stéphane Jacobzone; Faye Steiner; Erika Lopez Ponton; Emmanuel Job
2010-01-01
This Working Paper presents preliminary analytical estimates using the 1998 and 2005 surveys of indicators of systems for the management of regulatory quality. Two broad dimensions are found in regulatory management systems using Factor Analysis, and Principal Component Analysis. The first reflects an integrated approach to ex ante assessment, with the use of tools such as formal consultation and regulatory
An Econometric Model of The Term Structure of Interest Rates Under
Zeng, Yong - Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Missouri
of Markov regime shifts that helps elucidate the effect of regime shifts on the yield curve and give a clear models with a closed form solution of the yield curve, yet it is flexible enough to accommo- date priced- vestigates the implications of a 2-regime model of the business cycle based on GDP, consumption
Econometric estimates of price indexes for personal computers in the 1990's
Ernst R. Berndt; Zvi Griliches; Neal J. Rappaport
1995-01-01
In this paper we construct a number of quality-adjusted price indexes for personal computers in the US marketplace over the 1989–1992 time period. We generalize earlier work by incorporating simultaneously the time, age, and vintage effects of computer models and then develop a corresponding specification test procedure. When data on new and surviving models are used in the estimation of
Elizabeth A. Maharaj; Imad Moosa; Jonathan Dark; Param Silvapulle
2008-01-01
This paper utilises wavelet analysis, which is becoming popular in economics and finance, to estimate the hedge ratios for spot positions on the West Texas Intermediate crude oil, soybeans and the S&P500 index. This technique is combined with a two-stage regime switching threshold model to estimate asymmetric hedge ratios corresponding to positive and negative returns on futures contracts. Other simple
The Mib30 index and futures relationship: econometric analysis and implications for hedging
Francesco Pattarin; Riccardo Ferretti
2004-01-01
The interactions between the Mib30 stock market index and its future contract are examined. Using daily data for the 1994–2002 period, it is found that the cost-of-carry model holds as an equilibrium relationship between spot and futures prices. Deviations from equilibrium are corrected by movements in the spot market, but cross-market dynamics are also important in the short run. We
Gary G Madden; Michael Simpson
1997-01-01
The recent roll-out of fibre-optic cable suggests that the willingness of households in passed communities to subscribe to networked services is an important issue. This paper studies the determination of the demand for network subscription. Through a discrete choice model the effect of installation and rental price on the likelihood of subscription is analysed. The logit regression is based on
Kim, Jin
2005-02-17
This study posits that there may be a systematic bias in measuring the transit?s endogenous impact on land values in a built up area due to discrimination by location in the city. Studies of transit value-added effect ...
An econometric study of the demand for gasoline in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries
Eltony, M.N.
1994-12-31
Reliable and accurate estimation of price and income elasticities of demand for gasoline are important ingredients for long-run energy planning and policy formation. The purpose of this study is to develop and estimate a model for gasoline demand for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Oatar, Saufi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). The model is capable of producing short-run and long-run price and income elasticities. Since the first oil price hike in 1973, a great deal of attention has been directed toward the demand for gasoline, especially in the industrialized countries. Few studies have been directed toward the demand for gasoline in developing countries. In terms of primary energy consumption, the GCC`s energy needs are met by oil, natural gas, and electricity. Without any doubt, oil is the largest energy source consumed and gasoline is the most important oil product. However, very few studies have been directed toward analyzing GCC energy demand, and yet there has been not attempt to model and estimate GCC gasoline demand. This study attempts to address this gap.
Inflation, minimum wage and other wages: an econometric study on French macroeconomic data
Yannick Lhorty; Christophe Rault
2004-01-01
This study examines the set of interdependences between the formation of wages, prices and the minimum wage (SMIC) through a vectorial error correction model estimated on French quarterly macroeconomic data covering the 1970–1\\/1999-4 period. Two periods are distinguished: the period of inflation rise from 1970 to 1981, which coincides with an important squeeze of the wage range, measured by the
Spatial Data Analysis and GIS: Interfacing GIS and Econometric Software (93-7)
Anselin, Luc; Hudak, Sheri; Dodson, Rustin
1993-01-01
DEPVAR =GENl EPSILON = Qé?????l :- :i'k***'k*'EPSILON = Qi?????l [convergence criterion, 0.000001 is smallest allowed] ‘k :K [move to matrix area] [concatenate] [scalar] * 9: =NL 1 / NCOEF=NEST LOGDEN START=SLIST CONV=EPSILON
Shi, Xiaoyu
2006-01-01
Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has ...
Some Impossibility Theorems in Econometrics with Applications to Structural and Dynamic Models
Jean-Marie Dufour
1997-01-01
General characterizations of valid confidence sets and tests in problems involving (locally almost) unidentified (LAU) parameters are presented. In particular, any valid confidence set for an unbounded LAU parameter must be unbounded with positive probability. Consequently, almost surely bounded confidence sets, like Wald-type confidence sets, have zero coverage probability and Wald-type test statistics cannot be pivotal functions. The results are
Government Grants, Plant Survival And Employment Growth: A Micro-Econometric Analysis
Sourafel Girma; Holger Gorg
2004-01-01
In this paper we analyse the impact of governmental grant provision on plant performance. To this end we utilise rich information derived from three data sources for the manufacturing sector in Ireland, where grant provision has been an important part of the industrial policy. We use a matching technique combined with a difference-in-differences estimator in the empirical analysis. Our results
The effects of government grants on plant survival: A micro-econometric analysis
Sourafel Girma; Holger Görg; Eric Strobl
2007-01-01
In this paper, we analyse the impact of government grant provision on plant survival. To this end, we utilise rich information derived from three data sources for the manufacturing sector in Ireland, where grant provision has been an important part of industrial policy. Our empirical analysis is based on estimating a hazard model of plant exit on a matched sample
Pagan, Adrian; Pesaran, M Hashem
= #0; #0; B(1) C(1) #1; zt#0;1 + "t = #0;#12;0zt#0;1 + "t Hence it is immediately apparent that #11;#3;1 = #0;Ip i.e. the coe¢ cient on the ECM term is known. The requirement that there must be the same number of co-integrating vectors as dim... ?cations: C30, C32, E10 Key Words: Permanent shocks, structural identi?cation, error correction models, IS-LM models. #3;The research of the ?rst author was supported by ARC Grant DP0449659. 1 1 Introduction The fact that macroeconomic variables are often...
S Masson; I Joly; R Petiot
2004-01-01
The aim of this paper is to set up an inventory of the key features favouring the urban public transport (PT) use. The analysis rests on the UITP (Union International of Transport Public) database – “The millennium cities database” – which is based on a 100 city urban transport systems data collection. It contains 175 variables which concern demography, urban
Financial Aid Packages and College Enrollment Decisions: An Econometric Case Study
David M. Linsenmeier; Harvey S. Rosen; Cecilia Elena Rouse
2006-01-01
We study the effects of a change in financial aid policy introduced by an anonymous university in 1998. Prior to that time, the university's financial aid packages for low-income students consisted of grants, loans, and campus jobs. After the change, the entire loan portion of the package for low-income students was replaced with grants. We find the program increased the
Econometric model of the U.S. sheep and mohair industries for policy analysis
Ribera Landivar, Luis Alejandro
2005-08-29
with the marketing loan program for wool in the 2002 Farm Bill. However, a higher loan rate for wool would reduce the decline rate of the industry. The Angora goat industry will continue to decline in size, but with a higher loan rate for mohair, the number of goats...
Tinoush Jamali Jaghdani; Bernhard Brummer
2011-01-01
Depletion of groundwater resources is an international problem, and groundwater is probably the world’s most extracted raw material. The agriculture sector is one of the biggest users of groundwater resources for irrigation activities, and it plays an important role in the depletion of these resources. The estimation of demand function for groundwater resources is the first step toward any policy
Owoo, Nkechi S; Agyei-Mensah, Samuel; Onuoha, Emily
2015-07-01
According to the demographic transition theory, fertility rates fall in response to declines in child mortality rates. Although national statistics indicate that child mortality rates have been declining over time, Ghana's fertility rates appear to have stalled. This paper hypothesises that women's fertility behaviours may be more responsive to child mortality experiences at more localised levels. Using all rounds of the Ghana Demographic and Health Surveys (1988-2008) and employing a variety of spatial and empirical estimation techniques, results indicate that in addition to own-child mortality, neighbourhood child mortality shocks are also a determinant of women's fertility in Ghana. Women in neighbourhoods with large child mortality shocks may desire more children as an "insurance" against future losses, as a result of their increased perceptions of own-child mortality risks. PMID:24947402
An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.
Castillo-Manzano, José I; Castro-Nuño, Mercedes; Pedregal, Diego J
2010-07-01
This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force. PMID:20441847
An econometric analysis of the major determinants of nursing home costs in the United States
Mark R. Meiners
1982-01-01
This study presents statistical cost function estimates based on data from the 1973-1974 National Nursing Home Survey. Using multiple regression techniques, multiplicative and additive models of both total cost and operating cost are presented. Findings from the analysis contribute to the growing literature on nursing home costs and provide added insight to a number of important topics. Economies to scale
An econometric analysis of the major determinants of nursing home costs in the United States.
Meiners, M R
1982-01-01
This study presents statistical cost function estimates based on data from the 1973-74 National Nursing Home Survey. Using multiple regression techniques, multiplicative and additive models of both total cost and operating cost are presented. Findings from the analysis contribute to the growing literature on nursing home costs and provide added insight to a number of important topics. Economies to scale are indicated with an optimum size in the 300-400 bed range. Flat-rate reimbursement systems and other systems which set rates prospectively are shown to be associated with significantly lower nursing home costs when compared to the incentives of cost based systems with or without limits and the incentives of private financing. Increases in both the admission rate and the occupancy rate are associated with higher costs though only the latter relationship proves of much practical significance, with the cost savings more pronounced for facilities starting with low occupancy rates. The profit motive is confirmed as an important incentive for containing costs. Holding several important level or scope of service indicators constant, proprietary nursing homes were found to have total costs 7% lower and operating costs 11% lower than in the voluntary non-profit nursing homes. The range of therapeutic services available and the type of staff coverage of the daily shifts provided in the nursing homes are confirmed as key cost determinants. Evidence is also provided which suggests that residents with mid-level dependency are relatively more costly to treat than those who are completely dependent or independent. The usefulness of other facility descriptions and quality proxy measures as cost determinants is also explored. The results are compared to those from other recent nursing home cost function studies. PMID:7101004
The island factor as a growth booster for nations: a mental advantage econometrically revealed
Jean-Eric Aubert; Derek H. C. Chen
2008-01-01
Purpose – This paper aims to postulate that countries which are either geographical or cultural islands, (defined as countries that are surrounded by neighboring countries that do not speak the same language), tend to experience higher rates of economic growth, all other things being equal. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – Using historical macroeconomic data for a large number of countries and statistical growth
Erricos John Kontoghiorghes
1999-01-01
. Parallel strategies based on compound disjoint Givens rotations are proposed for computing the main two factorizations that\\u000a are used in the solution of seemingly unrelated regression and simultaneous equations models. The first factorization requires\\u000a the triangularization of a set of upper-trapezoidals after deleting columns. The second factorization is equivalent to updating\\u000a a lower-triangular matrix with a matrix having
Financial Econometrics (29:390:300:50) Fall 2008 Professor Robert H. Patrick
Lin, Xiaodong
of Forecasting Roles and conditions of forecasting Explanatory versus time-series forecasting Accuracy Walks Co-integrated time-series AR, MA, ARMA, and ARIMA models 7. Estimating and Forecasting with time-series://www.rci.rutgers.edu/~rpatrick/hp.html This course presents an overview of short-term and long-term financial analysis, planning, and forecasting
The effectiveness of the US endangered species act: An econometric analysis using matching methods
Paul J. Ferraro; Craig McIntosh; Monica Ospina
2007-01-01
Diametrically opposed views of the effectiveness of the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) co-exist more than 30 years after the Act's creation. The evidence marshaled to date for and against the ESA suffers from a problem common in analyses of biodiversity protection measures: the absence of a well-chosen control group. We demonstrate how matching methods can be used to
Curriculum Vita for W. Douglass Shaw February 2014
Shaw, W. Douglass
, Introduction to Statistics and Econometrics, Advanced Undergraduate Econometrics, Graduate Econometrics (MS Economics (2012-2014). Reviewer of the EPA Safewater CBX model, via Intellitech Systems Inc, August 2010
Hage, Olle; Söderholm, Patrik
2008-01-01
The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used. PMID:17931849
Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J
2011-12-01
The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact. PMID:22439555
The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...
Teotia, A.P.S.; Karvelas, D.E.; Daniels, E.J.; Anderson, J.L.
1993-08-01
For the first time in the public domain, we have estimated the energy consumption and expenditures of district steam, hot water, and chilled water. Specifically, the combined energy consumption and expenditures of steam, hot water, and chilled water in 1989 were approximately 800 trillion Btu and 7 billion dollars, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for estimating market penetration of steam, hot water, and chilled water systems in commercial buildings over the next 20 years. This research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) used the 1989 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Surveys (CBECS) to provide information on energy consumption and expenditures and related factors in about 6000 buildings. A general linear model to estimated parameters for each of the three equations for steam, hot water, and chilled water demand in the buildings. A logarithmic transformation was made for the dependent variable and most of the explanatory variables. The model provides estimates of building steam, hot water, and chilled water consumption and expenditures between now and the year 2010. This model should be of interest to policymakers, researchers, and market participants involved with planning and implementing community-based energy-conserving and environmentally beneficial energy systems.
J. Wesley Burnett; John C. Bergstrom
2010-01-01
One of the major criticisms of past environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) studies is that the spatiotemporal aspects within the data have largely been ignored. By ignoring the spatial aspect of pollution emissions past estimates of the EKC implicitly assume that a region’s emissions are unaffected by events in neighboring regions (i.e., assume there are no transboundary pollution emissions between neighbors).
Ahmad Faruqui; Sanem Sergici
2011-01-01
The Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BGE) undertook a dynamic pricing experiment to test customer price responsiveness\\u000a to different dynamic pricing options. The pilot ran during the summers of 2008 and 2009 and was called the Smart Energy Pricing (SEP) Pilot. In 2008, it tested two types of dynamic pricing tariffs: critical peak pricing (CPP) and peak time rebate (PTR)
Emilia ?I?AN; Cristina BOBOC; Simona GHI??; Daniela TODOSE
2011-01-01
This paper analyses the correlation between social security budget and the main macroeconomic indicators (like GDP, monthly average gross earnings, unemployment) in Romania during the period 2000 – 2009. Romania faces a more severe economic recession than originally anticipated. Although the implementation of anti-crisis program was able to lead to normalization of financial conditions, the contraction of economic activity is
Nutrient-Dense Food Groups Have High Energy Costs: An Econometric Approach to Nutrient Profiling1,2
Matthieu Maillot; Nicole Darmon; Michel Darmon; Lionel Lafay; Adam Drewnowski
Consumers wishing to replace some of the foods in their diets with more nutrient-dense options need to be able to identify such foods on the basis of nutrient profiling. The present study used nutrient profiling to rank 7 major food groups and 25 subgroups in terms of their contribution to dietary energy, diet quality, and diet cost for 1332 adult
Gunjal, K.R.
1981-01-01
The historical trends in structure, extent, and intensity of agricultural mechanization are analyzed in this study. The number of tractors, grain combines, corn pickers and picker shellers, pickup balers, and field forage harvesters peaked during the early 1960s. The decline in this numbers after the '60s is brought about mainly by the qualitative changes in those machines. Based on the various investments theories, the alternative models of stock adjustment, expectations, and derived demand type are estimated for tractor and other machinery investments at the national and regional levels using 1950 to 1977 annual data. Investment demand functions for harvesting machinery are estimated at the national level. Statistical tests for structural change in the machinery investments are performed. The demand elasticities with respect to prices, income and other economic variables are calculated. Dynamic multipliers expressing the long-lasting effects of the interest rates, price of fuel and oil, and net farm income are calculated for selected machinery investments. The impact and long-term multipliers are also presented. Finally, a block recursive simulation model of the regional farm-machinery investments is developed. The relevant variables are selected from agriculture, industry, and the economy in general to complete the linkages specified in the model. The regional tractor and other machinery investments and national tractor, harvesting-machinery, other machinery, and all machinery investments are predicted up to 1990. The potential effects of six alternative policies of energy prices, support prices, and agricultural exports on future farm-machinery investments are also analyzed.
Gunjal
1981-01-01
The historical trends in structure, extent, and intensity of agricultural mechanization are analyzed in this study. The number of tractors, grain combines, corn pickers and picker shellers, pickup balers, and field forage harvesters peaked during the early 1960s. The decline in this numbers after the '60s is brought about mainly by the qualitative changes in those machines. Based on the
Michele Cincera
1997-01-01
The paper analyses the relationship between the main determinants of technological activity and patent applications. To this end, an original panel of 181 international manufacturing firms investigating substantial amounts in R&D during the late 1980s has been constructed. The number of patent applications by firms is explained by current and lagged levels of R&D expenditures and technological spillovers. Technological and
Waisnor, Matthew E. (Matthew Edward)
2013-01-01
This paper examines and projects fundamental characteristics of the London Office rental market which is facing supply and demand issues in upcoming years despite being considered one of the few safe haven places for real ...
Olle Hage; Patrik Soederholm
2008-01-01
The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic\\/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental
Tucker, James Leroy
1981-01-01
Increase in U. S. Soybean Production Increase in Brazil Soybean Production Increase in the EC Import Price of Cassava . Increase in the EC import of FGS protein from the United States Increase in the EC import Price of FGS Energy Ingredients from... (continued) Table Page 74. The impact of a 10 percent increase in Brazil Soybean Production on the endogenous variables, all other ex- ogenous variables at their individual averages for the 1976-78 period 225 75. The impact of a 10 percent increase...
David Wheeler; Susmita Dasgupta; Timothy S. Thomas
2009-01-01
Summary This paper investigates the determinants of disparities in coverage by cell telephone systems in Sub-Saharan Africa. It uses a spatially disaggregated probit for over 990,000 grid cells with adjustments for spatial autocorrelation. Determinants include potential market size (population); cost factors related to accessibility (elevation, slope, distance from a main road, and distance from the nearest large city); and competition
David J. Vanness
2003-01-01
This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected
Vanness, David J
2003-09-01
This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification. PMID:12950095
Robyn, Paul Jacob; Hill, Allan; Liu, Yuanli; Souares, Aurélia; Savadogo, Germain; Sié, Ali; Sauerborn, Rainer
2012-01-01
Objective This study examines the role of community-based health insurance (CBHI) in influencing health-seeking behaviour in Burkina Faso, West Africa. Community-based health insurance was introduced in Nouna district, Burkina Faso, in 2004 with the goal to improve access to contracted providers based at primary- and secondary-level facilities. The paper specifically examines the effect of CBHI enrolment on reducing the prevalence of seeking modern and traditional methods of self-treatment as the first choice in care among the insured population. Methods Three stages of analysis were adopted to measure this effect. First, propensity score matching was used to minimize the observed baseline differences between the insured and uninsured populations. Second, through matching the average treatment effect on the treated, the effect of insurance enrolment on health-seeking behaviour was estimated. Finally, multinomial logistic regression was applied to model demand for available health care options, including no treatment, traditional self-treatment, modern self-treatment, traditional healers and facility-based care. Results For the first choice in care sought, there was no significant difference in the prevalence of self-treatment among the insured and uninsured populations, reaching over 55% for each group. When comparing the alternative option of no treatment, CBHI played no significant role in reducing the demand for self-care (either traditional or modern) or utilization of traditional healers, while it did significantly increase consumption of facility-based care. The average treatment effect on the treated was insignificant for traditional self-care, modern self-care and traditional healer, but was significant with a positive effect for use of facility care. Discussion While CBHI does have a positive impact on facility care utilization, its effect on reducing the prevalence of self-care is limited. The policy recommendations for improving the CBHI scheme’s responsiveness to population health care demand should incorporate community-based initiatives that offer attractive and appropriate alternatives to self-care. PMID:21414993
NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)
Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.
1974-01-01
The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.
Derek C. Jones; Panu Kalmi; Antti Kauhanen
By assembling and analyzing new panel data, we investigate the impact of innovative human resource management (HRM) practices on performance for a retail firm. Monthly financial and performance data for 2001-2003, for all (47) units, are combined with information for crucial aspects of HRM environments obtained from employee surveys and multiple case visits. Our rich data include measures of the
Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn
2014-12-10
Yields ......................................................... 11 Analyses of Effects of Climate Change on US Crop Yields .................................... 13 Studies on Crop Yield Higher Order Moments.... Below we review those that focus on ocean phenomena and climate change. We will also review studies that analyze higher order moments of crop yield distributions. Impacts of Ocean Phenomena on Weather A number of other studies have addressed weather...
Ravikumar, B.
-sectional techniques, time series analysis, simultaneous equation modeling, and forecasting. Applying widely structure. Topics include: demand analysis, resource allocation, production economics, and cost analysis of public and private sector strategies for achieving the optimal use of natural resources and the control
Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony
2015-01-01
Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289
Robert K. Abercrombie; Frederick T. Sheldon; Michael R. Grimaila
2010-01-01
In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle
M. C. Guisan
2004-01-01
This articles emphasizes the important role of human capital, manufacturing and imports to increase real income per inhabitant and non-agrarian employment. Some researchers specialized in economic growth analyse the export-led growth in many countries and insist upon the importance of openness to increase real Gdp. Often this type of beneficial effects seem very clear but it does not always happen
Empirical study of new Keynesian model using cointegrated VAR : what New Zealand data tell us
Kim, Hae-min
2009-01-01
Econometric analysis of rational expectations models has been a widely studied topic in the macro-econometric literature. This thesis looks in particular at evaluating Neokeynesian model (NKM) with respect to its conformity ...
BA Economics and BA Financial Economics Assessment Plan Program Learning Objectives
Cantlon, Jessica F.
model economic decisions. 3. The ability to analyze historical and current events of thinking 2 Model economic decision 3 Analyze historical / current events 4 Econometrics ECO 231W Econometrics X X X 4 ECO electives 3
A Guided Tour to Wonderland: Visualizing the SlowFast Dynamics of an Analytical Dynamical System
dimensional continuous dynamical system (Wonderland model) coming from the field of econometrics. This system of the underlying dynamics. This work investigates the visualization of Wonderland, a four dimensional econometric model, which describes interactions between population growth, economic activity and environmental
Last Updated: Jan 7, 2014 DR. NILOPA SHAH www.socsci.uci.edu/~nilopas
Loudon, Catherine
. (2012): "A Model of Price and Frequency Competition in Freight Transportation", Transportation Research of California, Irvine M.A. Economics (2004), Econometrics & Mathematical Economics, University of Mumbai, India in Intermediate Microeconomics, Basic Macroeconomics, Applied Econometrics, Quantitative Economics, Game Theory
CURRICULUM VITAE Name: Otis W. Gilley Date of Birth: April 10, 1952
Selmic, Sandra
1991 - Honorable mention, Best Article Award by Western Economics Association International Society Western Economic Association AREUEA Courses Taught Econometrics Probability Applied Econometrics Considerations," with Yingxu Kuang and Ted Englebrecht, Southern Economic Journal, Volume 78, Number 2, October
Supply determination and government cost accounting for federal crop programs
Davis, Joey Keith
1992-01-01
OF THEORETICAL EQUATIONS Sources of Data . Choice of Estimator Estimation Results Supply related equations . Expected commodity price Program participation rate Program planted acres Nonprogram acres 92 92 93 94 95 96 101 104 106 CHAPTER...) Table Page 5. 2 Econometric Estimates of Participation Rate Equations 101 5. 3 Econometric Estimates of Program Planted Acres 104 5. 4 Econometric Estimates of Nonprogram Planted Acres 107 5. 5 5. 6 5. 7 5. 8 5. 9 5. 10 Econometric Estimates...
Tyndall Briefing Note No. 42 November 2009
Watson, Andrew
econometric simulation model developed by 4CMR and Cambridge Econometrics. For more information on E3MG, see, 1621 Silver Street, Cambridge, CB3 9EP 2 Cambridge Econometrics, Reuben House, Covent Garden climate change. Using the Energy-Environment-Economy Model at the Global level (E3MG), constructed
Information-Theoretic Deconvolution Approximation of Treatment Effect Distribution
Perloff, Jeffrey M.
of Toronto seminar, the Midwest Econometrics Group 2005 meeting and the Econometrics Society 2006 winter The past two decades have seen a surge in econometric work on evaluating program effects. Prior to the last individual treatment effect distribution based on the standard average treatment effect model. The proposed
In-sample Asymptotics and Across-sample Efficiency Gains for High Frequency Data
Mykland, Per A.
to Kalman-Bucy filters, although our approach is non-Gaussian and model-free. We derive theoretical results econometrics conference, the North American Winter Meetings of the Econometric Society, Northern Illinois University, the Inaugural Conference of the Society for Financial econometrics, the University
Memoire de synthese en vue de l'obtention de
Comte, Fabienne
Causality in Continuous Time Models'', with Eric Renault, Econometric Theory, 12, 1996, 215256. 3. ``Long Memory Continuous Time Models'', with Eric Renault, Journal of Econometrics, 76, 1996, 101149. 4 Volatility Model'', Working paper Paris 6 n o 560, in revision for Econometric Theory. 12. ``Asymptotic
Prior knowledge in economic applications of data mining
Feelders, Ad
in the field of econometrics. In the model specification stage of econometric modelling the relevant in econometrics. This is quite natural since economic models are often expressed as (systems of) equations where.J.Feelders@kub.nl Abstract. A common form of prior knowledge in economic modelling concerns the monotonicity of relations
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
involved. Abstract: The recent progress in spatial econometrics offers a number of estimators for models the object of recent important developments, the econometric analysis of spatial and dynamic panel models: Spatial Econometrics, Dynamic Panel Model, GMM, Regional Convergence JEL Classification: C21, C23, O52, R
ETC-Raux.doc -07/10/03 17:10 Page 1 of 21
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
and econometrics. The purpose of the system of models is to simulate the medium- and long-term effects of urban describes the development of a model architecture based on systems dynamics and econometrics. The purpose such data, which relates to expressed demand, econometric modelling attempts to reproduce the final
Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis
Neil R. Ericsson; David F. Hendry; Grayham E. Mizon
1998-01-01
This overview examines conditions for reliable economic policy analysis based on econometric models, focusing on the econometric concepts of exogeneity, cointegration, causality, and invariance. Weak, strong, and super exogeneity are discussed in general and these concepts are then applied to the use of econometric models in policy analysis when the variables are cointegrated. Implications follow for model constancy, the Lucas
M. Poudyal
2005-01-01
Despite a relatively successful conservation programme for the endangered one-horned rhinoc- eros in the National Parks of the Terai region, poaching remains one of the major threats to its survival in Nepal. In recent years, there has been an alarming rise in the number of rhinos poached; over 100 rhinos were taken in and around the Royal Chitwan National Park
NSDL National Science Digital Library
Betty Blecha
The Fair model web site includes a freely available United States macroeconomic econometric model and a multicounty econometric model. The models run on the Windows OS. Instructors can use the models to teach forecasting, run policy experiments, and evaluate historical episodes of macroeconomic behavior. The web site includes extensive documentation for both models. The simulation is for upper-division economics courses in macroeconomics or econometrics. The principle developer is Ray Fair at Yale University.
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2011-03-01
...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...
77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2012-01-10
...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...
Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014
2013-11-08
...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...
1 UPDATED 5 Sep 2014 T R A V I S J . L Y B B E R T
California at Davis, University of
of Microeconomics Honors Environmental Economics Honors GIS & Economics Honors Introduction to Econometrics. 2014. "Coping with drought by adjusting land tenancy contracts: A model and evidence from rural Morocco
Sources of Identifying Information in Evaluation Models
Joshua D. Angrist; Guido W. Imbens
1991-01-01
The average effect of social programs on outcomes such as earnings is a parameter of primary interest in econometric evaluations studies. New results on using exclusion restrictions to identify and estimate average treatment effects are presented. Identification is achieved given a minimum of parametric assumptions, initially without reference to a latent index framework. Most econometric analyses of evaluation models motivate
Andrea Resti
1997-01-01
Research on bank efficiency has developed in two separate streams: econometric studies and Data Envelopment Analysis, a linear programming technique. These two branches of literature have developed quickly, but separately; in this paper these two approaches have been tested on a common panel of 270 Italian banks, and this has suggested the following: (i) econometric and linear programming results do
A Guide to Applied Modern Macroeconometrics
Alain Paquet
1994-01-01
The 1980s and early 1990s have set applied macroeconometrics on a new course because of advances in econometric theory and the development of ever more powerful computers and softwares. A thorough understanding of the fundamental statistical theory underlying the new techniques may be too involved for the needs and interests of most practitioners. Nonetheless, various new econometric tools can serve
Witsanu Attavanich; Bruce A. McCarl
2011-01-01
Many studies have done econometric estimates of how climate alters crop yields and or land rents in an effort to gain information on potential effects of climate change. However, an important related factor, the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and in fact a driver of climate change is ignored. This means the prior econometric estimates are biased as they infer
Dozent/Lecturer Autor/Author Titel / Title Signatur VW
Richner, Heinz
Econometrics II M/ MIME Boes, St. and Gerfin, M. Berndt, E. R. The Practice of Econometrics Addison-Wesley 1990 Macroeconomics M / MIME Dellas, H. 542 Doing Economics with the Computer B Emons, W Cooter, R. and T. Ulen Law. /Buchholz, W. Ökonomie des Sozialstaats Springer 2007 G.XVIII.a 36 9374 Oekonomie des Sozialstaates B Gerfin
Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie
2013-01-01
The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…
The economic benefits of publicly funded basic research: a critical review
Ammon J. Salter; Ben R. Martin
2001-01-01
This article critically reviews the literature on the economic benefits of publicly funded basic research. In that literature, three main methodological approaches have been adopted — econometric studies, surveys and case studies. Econometric studies are subject to certain methodological limitations but they suggest that the economic benefits are very substantial. These studies have also highlighted the importance of spillovers and
Empirical contract theory: The case of insurance data
Pierre-André Chiappori; Bernard Salanié
1997-01-01
While contract theory has reached a high degree of sophistication, econometric applications remain scarse. One often invoked reason is that adequate data is hard to find. We argue that insurance data fit especially well the requirements of econometric testing. Then we propose some insights on how insurance data can be used to test the predictions of contract theory. As an
IEDWorking Paper 18 September 2012
Fischlin, Andreas
.3 Econometric framework......................................................... 13 3.4 The latent class model and Econometrics. Currently his research focuses on the Microeconomics of the Public Sector as well as Energy are consistent with the revealed behavior. The adopted latent class model accounts for heterogeneity
10 March 2014 Bryan S. Graham Associate Professor UC -Berkeley
Sadoulet, Elisabeth
for an empirical one-to-one transferable utility matching model," Advances in Econometrics 31: 151 179. - 0 2013 of Economic Studies 2013 - 2013 Associate Editor, Econometrics Journal 2012 - Present Human Capital Bryan S. Graham Associate Professor UC - Berkeley panel data models" (PI) (365K) 2008
135Department of Economics Graduate Catalogue 201415
data models. Annually. ECON 306 Econometrics II 3.0; 3 cr. Nonlinear regression, vector autoregression 305 Econometrics I 3.0; 3 cr. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing within the framework of the classical linear regression model. Subjects covered include general least squares and its application (e
A rational model of preference learning and choice prediction by children
Edinburgh, University of
how a simple econometric model can be extended to capture two- to four-year-olds' use of statistical psychology is paralleled by work in econometrics on statistical models for inferring preferences from choicesA rational model of preference learning and choice prediction by children Christopher G. Lucas
Personal Data Name: Jean Paul CHAVAS
Radeloff, Volker C.
University of Missouri, Columbia (USA) 1976 to 1978 Ph.D. in Agricultural Economics Thesis: An Econometric Model of the U.S. Poultry Industry. University of Missouri, Columbia (USA) 1975 to 1976 M-1988) o Economics of Risk (1989-1995, 2000-present) o Food Policy (1990-1995 and 1999-2001) o Econometrics
An Article Submitted to Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics &
Ben-Gal, Irad E.
an information theory and data compression model to an econometrics problem. In particular, we use the VariableAn Article Submitted to Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics Manuscript 1648 Predicting Stock Returns Using a Variable Order Markov Tree Model Armin Shmilovici Irad Ben-Gal Ben
Bayesian inference for time series with heavytailed symmetric #stable noise processes
Godsill, Simon
model with sym metric stable terms, but we illustrate their application to linear models # The first and econometrics community in #stable distributions. There is now a large literature. Nikias and Shao [27 in fields as diverse as wireless communica tions, sonar and econometrics (where pioneering work was done
Kahana, Michael J.
Association, the 2007 CIRANO Financial Econometrics Con- ference, the 2007 Winter Meeting of the Econometric. The investor in our model considers the evidence in favor of the following linear model for excess returns: rt also places a finite probability on the following model: rt+1 = + ut+1. (2) Namely, the investor
HIGHDIMENSIONAL INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES REGRESSION AND CONFIDENCE SETS
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
programs. We provide rates of convergence, model selection results and propose three types of joint also be used for low dimensional models. In our IV regression setting, the standard tools from CIREQ conference on High Dimensional Problems in Econometrics and 4th French Econometrics Conference
LaFrance, Jeffrey T.
's personal copy Journal of Econometrics 162 (2011) 3543 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Journal of Econometrics journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom Agricultural arbitrage and risk preferences model of agricultural asset arbitrage equilibrium is developed and applied to agriculture in the North
Technology policy and technical change, a dynamic global and UK approach
Watson, Andrew
....................................................11 2.2.3 GHG policy analysis, using econometric estimation in the MDM-E3 model to investigate Econometrics Professor Paul Ekins, Policy Studies Institute, London Professor Ken Green, UMIST School.2.1 Analysis of Technical Change in the Economy at Large..............................7 2.2.2 Modelling
Estimating strategic interactions in petroleum exploration
Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia
; at student workshops in econometrics, in industrial organization, in microeconomic theory, in energy in econometrics at MIT. I thank Kenneth Hendricks and Robert Porter for sharing their lease sale data with me. A discrete response model of a firm's exploration timing decision that uses variables based on the timing
HIGH-DIMENSIONAL INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES REGRESSION AND CONFIDENCE SETS
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
be obtained by solving K convex programs. We provide rates of convergence, model selection results and propose instruments which could also be used for low dimensional models. In our IV regression setting, the standard and the 2012 CIREQ conference on High Dimensional Problems in Econometrics and 4th French Econometrics
GREQAMGroupement de Recherche en Economie Quantitative d'Aix-Marseille -UMR-CNRS 6579
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
form. This paper breaks the ordinary rules in econometrics and makes use of time series with artificial if the variables in a model are approximately linear. Keywords: Cointegration; Non-linear time series analysis The cointegration analysis have played a key role in econometrics and macroeconomics in the last two decades
CRAE forms a collaborative applied economic research
of Econometrics and Quantitative Modelling, School of Economics and Finance, Curtin Business School, Curtin an econometric model that has applications in panel or cross-sectional settings, where the choice spectrum Spencer§ Abstract We extend Harris and Zhao (2007) by proposing a (Panel) Inflated Ordered Probit model
852 NATURE PHYSICS | VOL 8 | DECEMBER 2012 | www.nature.com/naturephysics Cause and correlation
Loss, Daniel
, in fields from econometrics to statistical physics, the search for correlations in data drives a small example (Science 338, 496500; 2012). Consider a simple model for the interaction of two species -- foxes in econometrics. However, the theory applies to stochastic variables, especially in linear systems. As Granger
Power variation & stochastic volatility: a review and some new results
Wolfe, Patrick J.
it to be used in finance and econometrics as a model for log-prices. In turn, this provides the basis for option econometrics in the analysis of volatility. The paper also provides some new results and discusses open issues of financial economics. In that field a very important and broad class of models for the log price process
Supporting Changes in Structure in Causal Model Construction
Druzdzel, Marek J.
," originating from work in econometrics, refers to structural modifications invoked by actions on a causal model prior knowledge to predict the effects of changes in structure, researchers in econometrics modeledSupporting Changes in Structure in Causal Model Construction Tsai-Ching Lu and Marek J. Druzdzel
Semiparametric Model Based Bootstrap Guang Cheng
Cheng, Guang
to the semiparametric models in a wide variety of contexts, e.g. Biostatistics, Survival Analysis and Econometrics to the semiparametric models in a wide variety of contexts, e.g. Biostatistics, Survival Analysis and EconometricsSemiparametric Model Based Bootstrap Guang Cheng Department of Statistics, Purdue University The 2
Risk Management Institute RMI Research Workshop Series
Chaudhuri, Sanjay
in Bayesian analysis to an approximate factor model and investigates the role or otherwise of measured a PhD in Economics with from Boston College. Her fields of specialization are Econometric Theory, Time Series and Applied Econometrics. Since then, she joined the school of Economics at the University of New
ISSN1398-599XMPS-RR2000-16www.maphysto.dk Modelling by Levy Processes
Wolfe, Patrick J.
ISSN1398-599XMPS-RR2000-16www.maphysto.dk Modelling by L´evy Processes for Financial Econometrics´evy processes are used to model and ana- lyse time series from financial econometrics. A main feature processes. The basic probability theory asso- ciated with such models is discussed in some detail. 1
Carlini, David
Research Interests Time Series Econometrics, Economic and Financial Forecasting, Applied Macroeconomics), with K. Lahiri, Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 25, pp. 514-538. (8) Learning and Heterogeneity. 265-292. #12;2 (9) Evolution of Forecast Disagreement in a Bayesian Learning Model (2008), with K
Superstars in the National Basketball Association: Economic Value and Policy
Jerry A. Hausman; Gregory K. Leonard
1997-01-01
An econometric analysis demonstrates that television ratings for NBA games are substantially higher when certain players ('superstars') are involved. Thus, these superstars are quite important for generating revenue, not only for their own teams but for other teams as well. Using the econometric analysis and additional information on attendance and paraphernalia sales, the authors estimate the value of Michael Jordan
Federico A. Bugni
2010-01-01
This paper introduces a novel bootstrap procedure to perform inference in a wide class of partially identified econometric models. We consider econometric models defined by finitely many weak moment inequalities, -super-2 which encompass many applications of economic interest. The objective of our inferential procedure is to cover the identified set with a prespecified probability. -super-3 We compare our bootstrap procedure,
2009-01-01
Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The
CREDIT MARKET ACCESS AND PROFITABILITY IN TUNISIAN AGRICULTURE
Foltz, Jeremy D.
CREDIT MARKET ACCESS AND PROFITABILITY IN TUNISIAN AGRICULTURE Abstract This work develops an econometric model that links credit access with agricultural profitability and investment. Using data. Econometric estimates are run for agricultural investment and profitability as a function of credit access
David McAdams Professor of Business Administration and Economics
Reif, John H.
for Theoretical Economics; in 2004 at Econometric Society Annual Summer Meetings. [3] "Monotonicity in Asymmetric First-Price Auctions with Affiliation", International Journal of Game Theory, February 2007, 35(3), 427, Columbia Economics / GSB, Penn Economics, Stanford Economics / GSB; in 2006 at Econometric Society Annual
UNIVERSITIES AND AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY PATENT PRODUCTION
Jeremy D. Foltz; Bradford L. Barham; Kwansoo Kim
2000-01-01
Using patent data, this work provides an initial empirical investigation into university production of agricultural biotechnology patents. We develop a consistent theoretical methodology for understanding the university patent production process and then estimate count data econometric models of university-owned agricultural biotechnology patents on a series of explanatory variables. The zero inflated negative binomial econometric model used allows inclusion of all
What Do We Know About Economic Growth? Or, Why Don't We Know Very Much?
David Williams
2001-01-01
The last 10 years has seen an explosion in cross country econometric studies of growth, driven by two factors—new mathematical models of the growth process that lend themselves to econometric testing, and new data sets that make such testing possible. This paper looks at a selective review of these studies. It concludes that the results are disappointing in that no
Department of Economics and Business Aarhus University
of the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model, which is designed to model and forecast volatility of financial time the conditional variance or volatility of financial time series is an impor- tant issue in econometrics. General acknowledges support from CREATES-Center for Research in Econometric Analysis of Time Series (DNRF78), funded
technology. We are looking for someone comfortable at the intersection of computer science and statistics an advanced degree in a quantitative field (Computer Science / Statistics / Economics / Operations Research
The organization and management of nuclear power plants
Carroll, John S.
1990-01-01
The explanation of aggregate and sectoral investment behavior has been one of the less successful endeavors in empirical economics. Existing econometric models have had little success in explaining or ...
Analysing the Employability of Business and Administration Study Programs in Portugal
Aurora Galego; Margarida Saraiva
2010-01-01
This paper presents an analysis on the higher education graduates' employability in the field of Business and Administration in Portugal. Using econometric techniques, we consider the impact of several variables in the unemployment \\
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
Inflation Uncertainty, Output Growth Uncertainty and Macroeconomic Performance: Comparing severe financial and economic crisis, accompanied by inflation and exchange rate instability, Eastern and Inflation targeting). The task of our study is to compare econometrically the performance of these two
Social Influence and Individual Difference in Experimental Juries
Parkinson, Sophia; Baddeley, Michelle
may be biased. This paper presents original experimental data which shows that groups do have a significant tendency to compromise in jury-like settings. Econometric evidence also shows that features of groups, including the generosity of the group...
van der Torre, Leon
Recherche en Economie Appliquée International Finance, International Economics FR - EN michel and Development Economics, Applied Econometrics FR - EN luisito.bertinelli@uni.lu BOURGAIN Arnaud Assistant-Professeur CREA - Cellule de Recherche en Economie Appliquée Economic and Financial Integration, International
Chuang, Hao-Chun
2013-03-12
This dissertation comprises three essays in which we develop optimization, econometric, and simulation models to help traditional retailers improve in-store operations. Our modeling efforts aim to tackle inventory record inaccuracy (IRI...
Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen
2003-11-01
Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.
Essays on the Predictability and Volatility of Asset Returns
Jacewitz, Stefan A.
2010-10-12
This dissertation collects two papers regarding the econometric and economic theory and testing of the predictability of asset returns. It is widely accepted that stock returns are not only predictable but highly so. This ...
Endogeneity in Nonparametric and Semiparametri cR egression Models
Richard Blundell; James L. Powell
The analysis of data with endogenous regressors - that is, observable explana- tory variables that are correlated with unobservable error terms - is arguably the main contribution of econometrics to statistical science. Although \\
Choi, Hankyeung
2012-10-19
of attributes on data relations, including cointegration, causal relationship, time-varying correlation and variance, and multivariate non-normality. This dissertation employs several econometric models to specify these characteristics. This approach...
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...
11.126J / 14.48J / 11.249J Economics of Education, Spring 2006
Levy, Frank, 1941-
Discusses the economic aspects of current issues in education, using both economic theory and econometric and institutional readings. Topics include discussion of basic human capital theory; the growing impact of education ...
Mahon, Bradford Z.
Yandrofski, "Labor and Housing Market Dynamics" Written for Econometrics (ECO 231W), Professor Joshua Kinsler, "Changes in Capillary Morphology and Red Blood Cell Velocity in a Mouse Model of HIV Neuroinflammation
THE JOURNAL OF PHILOSOPHY VOLUME XCVIII, NO. 6, jUNE 2001
Fitelson, Branden
interest in the techniques of causal model- ing developed and employed within fields such as econometrics theories of token causation in terms of structural equations of the sort used in causal modeling
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 79057923, 2011 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/11/7905/2011/
Meskhidze, Nicholas
and autocorrelation of residuals between the un- derlying model and the available data, using both artificially and from marketing to econometrics; it naturally plays a critical role in geophysics, Correspondence to: J
Risk, Return, and Dividends Columbia University and NBER
Pricing meeting, the Financial Econometrics Conference at the University of Waterloo, the West- ern, in a standard CAPM or Merton (1973) model, the expected return of the market is a product of the relative risk
The notion of time plays a vital role in many real-world routing problems.
Handy, Todd C.
mathematical model for such routing problems. Since then several more sophisticated models and algorithms and Econometrics (CORE) in Belgium and two years in Berlin. He was a visiting professor at the Research Institute
Department of Statistics The University of Chicago
Stephens, Matthew
ABSTRACT Quantile regression offers a more complete statistical model than mean regression and now has in financial econometrics. Next I will outline various approaches to estimation. I will finish by briefly
FACULTY SENATE MEETING AGENDA Thursday, March 27, 2008
Gering, Jon C.
205; STAT 190 or STAT 290 · SB3207 ECON 373 Econometrics not Writing Enhanced, Prerequisites: ECON History at the Movies · SB 3507 New Course Model UN/Country Studies · SB 3607 New Course Women
Learning and Making Decisions When Costs and Probabilities are Both Unknown
Wang, Deli
selection bias in econometrics. Our solution to it is based on Nobel prize-winning work due to the economist a model that is useless because it classi#12;es every example as belonging to the most frequent class
Essays in International Macroeconomics and Forecasting
Bejarano Rojas, Jesus Antonio
2012-10-19
provides both conditional and unconditional predictive ability evaluations of the aluminum futures contracts prices, by using five different econometric models, in forecasting the aluminum spot price monthly return 3, 15, and 27-months ahead for the sample...
Bandyopadhyay, Antar
pollution. We derive implications from the phenomenon of by-production for econometric and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) specifications of pollution-generating technologies. We derive a DEA specification
14.384 Time Series Analysis, Fall 2007
Mikusheva, Anna, 1976-
The course provides a survey of the theory and application of time series methods in econometrics. Topics covered will include univariate stationary and non-stationary models, vector autoregressions, frequency domain ...
Three Essays on Estimation and Testing of Nonparametric Models
Ma, Guangyi
2012-10-19
In this dissertation, I focus on the development and application of nonparametric methods in econometrics. First, a constrained nonparametric regression method is developed to estimate a function and its derivatives subject to shape restrictions...
Financing smallholder agribusiness in Zambia: an economic analysis of the ZATAC model
Mwanamambo, Brian Namushi
2009-05-15
by the lender and how these have been adapted to suit seasonal agricultural production credit requirements. Econometric models are developed to examine the influence of key economic factors such as nominal and real interest rates, loan fees, and loan term...
Ferrari, Silvia
/Natural Resources Rasiel FinanceEmma Asset Pricing; Volatility; Behavioral Finance Roberts Applied Microeconomics Models; Education; Discrimination Bianchi Macroeconomics; Finance Francesco Monetary Economics; Asset Pricing Bollerslev Econometrics; Finance Tim Time Series Models; Volatility; GARCH; High
Terzopoulos, Demetri
anonymous referees, and seminar par- ticipants at the Canadian Econometrics Study Group Meeting in Quebec City, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Johns Hopkins University, the Meetings of the Society
Chuang, Hao-Chun
2013-03-12
This dissertation comprises three essays in which we develop optimization, econometric, and simulation models to help traditional retailers improve in-store operations. Our modeling efforts aim to tackle inventory record inaccuracy (IRI...
Three essays on business failure: causality and prediction
Zhang, Jin
2009-05-15
across fields. To name just a few, Dorsey and Mayer (1995) e GA when applied to econometric estimation. GA was tested with multiple optima, nondifferentiability, and irregular problems and compared with four other methods: Nelder-Mead simplex, simulated...
The residential demand for electricity in New England,
Levy, Paul F.
1973-01-01
The residential demand for electricity, studied on the national level for many years, is here investigated on the regional level. A survey of the literature is first presented outlining past econometric work in the field ...
14.33 Economics Research and Communication, Spring 2002
Ellison, Sara Fisher
Designed to expose students to the process of conducting independent research in empirical economics and effectively communicating the results of the research. Begins with an econometric analysis of an assigned economic ...
14.384 Time Series Analysis, Fall 2008
Schrimpf, Paul
The course provides a survey of the theory and application of time series methods in econometrics. Topics covered will include univariate stationary and non-stationary models, vector autoregressions, frequency domain ...
Forecasting and Risk Simulation: Proposed Analytical Tool
Datta, Shoumen
2008-08-01
Advances in econometrics and financial mathematics are still confined to use within the domains of stocks, bonds, shares, currency exchanges and derivatives markets. Extracting the principles (see paper by Datta & Granger) ...
Fees are subject to change. See studyguide.au.dk *PLACE OF STUDY
. Advanced Corporate Finance studies cor- porate finance in the context of asymmetrical information courses: Corporate Finance; Internationalisation of the Firm; Applied Econometric Methods; and Inter and agency. Traditional agency theory and asymmetrical information are used to revisit capital structure
Exact duality in semidefinite programming based on elementary ...
2014-12-08
to the need of having access to infeasible problems, and we hope that our results will be ...... These sets – in general – are nonconvex, neither open, nor closed. .... Technical. Report Report 9719/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Econometric ...
Bayesian Analysis, Computation and Communication Homepage
NSDL National Science Digital Library
The Bayesian Analysis, Computation and Communication site is being developed by Siddhartha Chib and John Gweke from the University of Minnesota for the project Bayesian Communication in the Social Sciences. The site provides software codes for the Bayesian communication software, utility routines and Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of econometric models developed under the project. A software manual and an article by John Gweke titled "Using Simulation Methods for Bayesian Econometric Models: Inference, Development and Communication" is also available at the site.
Research on the Rationality of China Telecom Price Cap Regulation
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Wang, Ye; Miao, Yuchen
Through econometric model, this paper analyzed empirically the data of China telecom output in 1990-2009, studying the rationality of the price regulation on the development of China telecom. During the research, this paper paid more attention to the specific issues and made conclusions by the econometric analysis and testing. It is concluded that price-capping regulation is an effective measure to promote China telecom industry development, while the effect of relax into control is not significant.
An analysis of oil and gas supply modeling techniques and a survey of offshore supply models
Walls, M.A.
1990-01-01
This report surveys the literature on empirical oil and gas supply modeling techniques. These techniques are categorized as either geologic/engineering, econometric, or hybrid - the last being a combination of geologic and econometric techniques. The geologic/ engineering models are further disaggregated into play analysis models and discovery process models. The strengths and weaknesses of each of the models are discussed. The report concludes with a discussion of how these techniques have been applied to offshore oil and gas supply.
Localised knowledge spillovers vs. innovative milieux: Knowledge “tacitness” reconsidered
Stefano Breschi; Francesco Lissoni
2001-01-01
. This article provides a critical discussion of the recent econometric literature on “localised knowledge spillovers” and\\u000a the related notion of tacit knowledge. The basic claim of the article is that the increasing, and more or less automatic reliance\\u000a of industrial geographers upon such econometric evidence and theoretical concepts to support their work on industrial districts,\\u000a hi-tech agglomerations and, more
Online Forecast Combination for Dependent Heterogeneous Data
Sancetta, Alessio
in Journal of Econometrics. 27 Breiman, L. (1961) Optimal Gambling Systems for Favorable Games. Proceeding 4th Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability 1, 65-78. Breiman, L. (1996) Heuristics of Instability and Stabilization in Model... .X. and P. Pauly (1990). The Use of Prior Information in Forecast Com- bination. International Journal of Forecasting 6, 503-508. Ding, Z., C.W.J. Granger (1996) Modeling Volatility Persistence of Speculative Returns: A New Approach. Journal of Econometrics...
Should Economists Use Open Source Software for Doing Research?
A. Talha Yalta; A. Yasemin Yalta
2010-01-01
We survey the literature on the accuracy of econometric software. We also assess the advantages of open source software from\\u000a the point of view of reliability and discuss its potential in applied economics, which has now become fully dependent on computers.\\u000a As a case study, we apply various accuracy tests on GNU Regression, Econometrics and Time-series Library (gretl) and demonstrate
State energy modeling. Volume 1: An analysis of state energy modeling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Melcher, A. G.
1981-05-01
An inventory and analysis of state energy models were made. The inventory identified 69 models developed or used at the state government level. Most of these deal with energy demand and area mix as regards the sectors modeled and the fuel types included. Nearly all of these are econometric or econometric engineering end use models. Fewer models deal with energy supply, and several address both supply and demand. The most common types of models are econometric, engineering and use, linear programming, and input-output. Purposes of models include: forecasting; policy analysis; impact analysis; and scenario analysis. Uses include short term emergency management, long term strategic assessment, and specific applications in decisions on facility siting, utility capacity expansion and rate increases proposed legislation, and analysis of federal policy.
Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.
1981-05-01
An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.
Mamula, Aaron T.
2010-01-16
results. I believe that an intriguing feature of the SB auction is that bidders have an incentive to bid above their true valuation. In the event that a bid is not accepted in the current period, the bidder will have another chance to participate... value of the license. 5 In Chapter V I use our econometric results to inform a simulation model to compare SB auctions with OTB auctions. Chapter V uses parameter estimates from our econometric model to predict bidding behavior for a hypothetical...
Testing Weak Cross-Sectional Dependence in Large Panels
Pesaran, M. Hashem
2012-02-28
of weak-cross-sectional dependence, and in particular determine the range of values of #11; for which the test has power. 18 References [1] Anselin, L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Dorddrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers. [2] Anselin, L... of Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1206, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge. [4] Baltagi, B. Q. Feng, and Kao, C. (2011), "Testing for Sphericity in a Fixed E¤ects Panel Data Model. The Econometrics Journal 14, 25-47. [5] Breusch, T...
Forest Management, Gender, and Food Security of the Rural Poor in Africa
Daniel Gbetnkom
2007-01-01
This paper addresses the economic impact of forest management on gender and food security of rural poor in Africa. The analyses reveal that deforestation places major demands on women and children?s time, limiting their opportunities to obtain an education or undertake income-generating activities. It also impairs the capacity of forests to contribute to food security. The econometric evidence applied in
Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices
Yue-Jun Zhang; Ying Fan; Hsien-Tang Tsai; Yi-Ming Wei
2008-01-01
The US dollar is frequently used as the invoicing currency of international crude oil trading. Hence, the fluctuation in US dollar exchange rate is believed to underlie the volatility of crude oil price and especially its forecasting accuracy. Using econometric techniques including cointegration, VAR model, ARCH type models and a newly proposed approach to test Granger causality in risk, three
Modeling Dynamics of Oil Prices under Different Regimes of Oil Market Development
Leonid Varshavsky
2009-01-01
The problem of modeling oil prices over the last three decades is analyzed. Because of radical changes of regimes on the oil market necessity of studying two periods of time (the 1980’s to the end of 1990’s and the end of 1990’s to 2008) is discussed. Two aggregate models reflecting the situation over the two periods are built: an econometric
Investigation of cointegration of oil prices and Russian market indices
Alexander Alexeev
2010-01-01
We perform an econometric analysis of cointegration of the Brent oil price and general and industrial indices of the RTS and MICEX stock exchanges. Positive relation between the oil price and the MICEX industrial index for an oil sector. It is interesting to note that a cointegration between the oil price and industrial RTS index is not detected. A cointegration
Effects on School Enrollment and Performance of a Conditional Transfers Program in Mexico
Sadoulet, Elisabeth
of Toulouse, Canadian Economic Association Conference in Montreal, Society for Economic Dynamics Conference in Stockholm, Econometric Society European Meeting and European Economic Association Annual Conference and University College London. 1 #12;1 Introduction In 1998, the Education, Health, and Nutrition Program, known
Econ 126 syllabus Fall 2007 Prof. Bhattacharya Economics 126: Economics of Health and Medical Care
Ford, James
is an active field of microeconomics with a large and growing literature. In the past decade, some of the most be comfortable with basic concepts in statistics. Much of the literature in health economics requires that readers be conversant in the language of statistics and econometrics, so we will review these as necessary
Revisiting the Principle of Relative ConstancyConsumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium
MICHEL DUPAGNE; R. JEFFERY GREEN
1996-01-01
This study extends prior consumer mass media expenditures research by proposing two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). The PRC posits that the proportion of income devoted to the mass media will not change significantly over time, although some variations among mass media categories may occur to enable new communication technologies to succeed in the
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE COLLEGE OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Hickman, Mark
portfolios, Financial derivatives, Financial econometrics, Options, Futures, Volatility, Spillovers, Hedging CHRISTCHURCH, NEW ZEALAND Risk Management and Financial Derivatives: An Overview Shawkat Hammoudeh Michael Mc and Financial Derivatives: An Overview Shawkat Hammoudeh1 , Michael McAleer2 30 April 2012 Abstract: Risk
Rechtssystem und Arbeitsmarkt-Performance
Horst Feldmann
2004-01-01
This paper econometrically analyzes whether and to what extent the structural features of the legal system affect the labor market. According to the regression results, a legal system characterized by judicial dependence, biased courts, a lack of intellectual property protection, frequent military interference, as well as a lack of integrity diminishes the performance of the labor market considerably. Obviously, this
University of California, Berkeley Professor Alan Auerbach Department of Economics 525 Evans Hall
Sadoulet, Elisabeth
. courses in economic theory and econometrics. Requirements: Problem sets (2) - 30% Paper (5 page review Review, Oxford University Press (2010) http://www.ifs.org.uk/mirrleesReview/dimensions I. THEORYSkWA&md5=33f2a17d513cfd73b21bc4134f1b09e4&ie=/sdarticle.pdf Alberto Alesina, Andrea Ichino, Loukas
IMPACT OF RISK AVERSE BEHAVIOR ON FERTILIZER DEMAND FOR TAME FORAGES
C. Richard Shumway; Tesfaye Gebremeskel
1978-01-01
The importance of risk in affecting produc- Hazell's risk-constrained linear program- tion decisions is amply attested in the econom- ming model (8), with risk measured as mean ics literature (3, 12). Recent investigation of annual absolute deviations from expected net the influence of risky alternatives on supply re- returns, is adapted to accommodate both inter- lations has included both econometric
The Determinants of Girls' Educational Enrollment in Ghana. Working Paper.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Johnson, Rebecca; Kyle, Steven
This study examined the determinants of school enrollment in Ghana, considering historical and social information to formulate an econometric model of school enrollment patterns for households. Data came from a 1989 survey of households in Ghana. The survey collected basic information about community characteristics, health and school facilities,…
A duration analysis of on-farm agrobiodiversity conservation: Evidence from portuguese fruit growers
Anabela Botelho; Isabel Dinis; Lígia Pinto
2008-01-01
We investigate the factors that influence farmers’ adoption of agrobiodiversity measures using survey data collected at a geographically relevant scale. The current economic theory of technology adoption is used to guide our thinking. While, to date, studies in this area have frequently employed standard probit\\/logit techniques, we adopt an econometric technique that addresses simultaneously the issue of sample censoring, temporal
Modeling the structure of CV formation and expectations : The commercial retail real estate sector
2007-01-01
Purpose – The paper aims to form system dynamics modeling in introduced in conjunction with econometric analysis and planned scenario analysis which will uniquely structure the process whereby the ex ante capital values of the prime retail real estate sector. Design\\/methodology\\/approach – The integrated system dynamics model investigates the structural factors affecting a unique expectation-centered capital value (CV) formation of
Hickman, Mark
During the 2008-09 Financial Crisis? Michael McAleer Econometric Institute Erasmus University Rotterdam about the value of financial assets. A crisis may also be accompanied by panic, which can be contagious. During a financial crisis, the risks associated with investing increase substantially. The financial
Job Mobility after Apprenticeship Training in West Germany
Wolfgang Franz; Volker Zimmermann
1999-01-01
This econometric study deals with the question as to what extent apprentices after successfully completing their training stay with the firm where they have received their training and, if so, how long that job tenure holds. Determinants of both decisions can be seen from both the employer's and the employee's viewpoint. The firm is interested to employ these former apprentices
Wolfgang Franz; Volker Zimmermann
2001-01-01
This econometric study deals with the question as to what extent apprentices after successfully completing their training stay with the firm where they have received their training and, if so, how long that job tenure holds. Determinants of both decisions can be seen from both the employer`s and the employee`s viewpoint. The firm is interested to employ this apprentices in
Short-Term Institutional Investors and Uncertainty This draft: March 2013
Lin, Xiaodong
at Stanford University and the 2012 Asian Meeting of the Econometric Society for helpful comments. All errors remain our responsibility. Corresponding author: Darius Palia; dpalia@rci.rutgers.edu. #12;1 Short of the top 1,000 U.S. Corporation. Consistent with popular sentiment, several papers have examined
Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter
Andrew C. Harvey
1989-01-01
In this book, Andrew Harvey sets out to provide a unified and comprehensive theory of structural time series models. Unlike the traditional ARIMA models, structural time series models consist explicitly of unobserved components, such as trends and seasonals, which have a direct interpretation. As a result the model selection methodology associated with structural models is much closer to econometric methodology.
Alternative forms of fractional Brownian motion
D. Marinucci; P. M. Robinson
1999-01-01
It is pointed out that two contradictory definitions of fractional Brownian motion are well-established, one prevailing in the probabilistic literature, the other in the econometric literature. Each is associated with a different definition of nonstationary fractional time series, arising in functional limit theorems based on such series. These various definitions have occasionally led to some confusion. The paper discusses the
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Denny, Michael; Fuss, Melvyn
1983-01-01
This paper investigates the effect of automation on the occupational demand for labor using modern econometric demand theory. The empirical results demonstrate the strong effects of innovative activity in the telecommunications industry. Technical change was capital-using and labor-saving, with the labor-saving impact being felt most severely by…
Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa
Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)
The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in recent past due to frequent detections of nitrogen concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon Rive...
Longitudinal Analyses of the Effects of Trade Unions
Richard Barry Freeman
1984-01-01
This paper examines how measurement error biases longitudinal estimates of union effects. It develops numerical examples, statistical models, and econometric estimates which indicate that measurement error is a major problem in longitudinal data sets, so that longitudinal analyses do not provide the research panacea for determining the effects of unionism (or other economic forces) some have suggested. There are three
The Drivers of Foreign Direct Investment into Research and Development: An Empirical Investigation
Walter Kuemmerle
1999-01-01
This paper examines the determinants of foreign direct investment (FDI) in research and development laboratories by 32 multinational enterprises in the pharmaceutical and electronics industries. The paper applies a dichotomous set of motives for FDI. Results from an econometric analysis of 136 laboratory investments show that relative market size and relative strength of a country's science base determine whether FDI
Governance infrastructure and US foreign direct investment
Steven Globerman; Daniel Shapiro
2003-01-01
This paper examines the statistical importance of governance infrastructure as a determinant of US foreign direct investment (FDI). In broad terms, governance infrastructure represents attributes of legislation, regulation, and legal systems that condition freedom of transacting, security of property rights, and transparency of government and legal processes. Our econometric analysis uses a two-stage estimation procedure. In the first stage, the
Causal links between foreign direct investment and trade in China
Xiaming Liu; Chengang Wang; Yingqi Wei
2001-01-01
This paper examines the causal relationship between foreign direct investment (FDI) and trade (exports and imports) in China. The empirical study is based on a panel of bilateral data for China and 19 home countries\\/regions over the period 1984–1998. Econometric techniques for panel data are applied to test unit roots and causality. The results indicate a virtuous procedure of development
The Regional Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment in China
Yingqi Wei; Xiaming Liu; David Parker; Kirit Vaidya
1999-01-01
WEI Y., LIU X., PARKER D. and VAIDYA K. (1999) The regional distribution of foreign direct investment in China, Reg. Studies 33 , 857-867. This paper analyses the determinants of the regional distribution of both pledged and realized foreign direct investment (FDI) within China. The econometric properties of the panel data set are examined using a standardized 't-bar' test for
Derek C. Jones; Panu Kalmi; Antti Kauhanen
2006-01-01
By assembling and analyzing new panel data, we investigate the impact of important changes in HR practices on firm performance for a food-processing plant. Our principal economic data are most unusual - weekly records on efficiency for all four production lines in the plant during 1999-2005. Compared to other insider econometric studies our case experienced an unusual degree of change
The Determinants of Stock Option Compensation: Evidence from Finland
DEREK C. JONES; PANU KALMI; MIKKO MÄKINEN
2006-01-01
A new, long, and rich panel data set consisting of all Finnish publicly traded firms is used to study how firm characteristics and stock market developments influence the adoption and targeting of stock option compensation. Stock option adoption is found to be a procyclical phenomenon. Findings from firm-level econometric analysis often corroborate those based on U.S. data, but important differences
Prediction in random coefficient regression
Rudolf Beran
1995-01-01
Random coefficient regression and autoregressive models are important in diverse applications such as the classical statistical analysis of random and mixed effects models, the modelling of certain econometric and biological time series, and as a means for image compression. This paper develops nonparametric prediction intervals for a random coefficient regression model. The construction of these intervals requires a consistent estimate
Analysis of stock market indices through multidimensional scaling
NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)
Machado, J. Tenreiro; Duarte, Fernando B.; Duarte, Gonçalo Monteiro
2011-12-01
We propose a graphical method to visualize possible time-varying correlations between fifteen stock market values. The method is useful for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behaviour. The graphs, originated from applying multidimensional scaling techniques (MDS), may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.
DETERMINING THE NUMBER OFF ACTORS IN APPROXIMATE FACTOR MODELS
Jushan Bai; Serena Ng
2002-01-01
In this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimen- sions. The focus is the determination of the number of factorsr? , which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We first establish the con- vergence rate for the factor estimates that will allow for consistent estimation of r .W e
Paul Ellickson; Scott Stern; Manuel Trajtenberg
1999-01-01
The main goal of this paper is to develop an empirical framework for evaluating the patient welfare benefits arising from pharmaceutical innovation. Extending previous studies of the welfare benefits from innovation (Trajtenberg, 1990; Hausman, 1996), this paper unpacks the separate choices made by physicians and patients in pharmaceutical decisionmaking and develops an estimable econometric model which reflects these choices. Our
Leanness and Convenience Dimensions of Beef Products: an Exploratory Analysis Using Scanner Data.
Capps, Oral Jr; Nayga, Rodolfo M. Jr.
1991-01-01
... . Individual UPCs ... . Customer Counts . . . . . Advertisement Space . Statistical Procedures . . -. :. Deletion of Particular UPCs and Data Anomalies Descriptive Statistics (Individual UPCs) Descriptive Statistics (Commodity Groups) Econometric... . . . . . Own-Advertisement Elasticities . ? .5 ? .7 ? .7 ? .8 ? .8 ? .9 .. 10 ? 11 ? 11 .17 .17 .20 .20 .21 .25 .30 .31 .32 .32 .33 .34 .35 Cross-Advertisement Elasticities . 35 Holidays and Seasonality . . . . . 36 Fresh Beef...
Was Germany ever united? Borders and domestic trade, 1885 - 1933
Nikolaus Wolf
2006-01-01
Was Germany ever united? Given the historical circumstances of Germanys unification in the 19th century there is no obvious answer to this question. But such an answer can affect the prospects of the post-1989 unification process, and beyond this of European integration. We provide an econometric analysis of Germanys economic integration across various internal borders from the foundation of the
Households Food Security in Poverty-Stricken Regions: Evidence from Western Rural China
Yun Li; Wen Yu
2010-01-01
Food security of poor rural households has always been a policy concern. Based on a field survey on three western provinces, the paper finds that over two thirds of households achieved self-sufficiency in grain consumption, but the consumption of other major food items are all below recommended standard. Most households are unsatisfied with and expect to change this situation. Econometric
University of Michigan Gender Salary Study: An Update Robert F. Schoeni, Patricia Andreski,
Shyy, Wei
1 University of Michigan Gender Salary Study: An Update Robert F. Schoeni, Patricia Andreski to the issue of gender equity in faculty salaries, Edward M. Gramlich, former Interim Provost and Executive to conduct an econometric analysis of salaries of tenured and tenure-track faculty at the University
Paris-Sud XI, Université de
314 Int. J. Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Vol. 6, No. 4, 2013 Copyright © 2013 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd. Economic development as major determinant of Olympic medal wins: predicting in the future given China's swift economic development. Keywords: econometric modelling; forecasting; Olympics
Location Effects and the Determination of Beginning Teacher Salaries: Evidence from Ohio.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Wagner, Gary A.; Porter, Tod S.
2000-01-01
Uses a (spatial-econometric) location weighing variable to examine how starting teacher salaries in one Ohio district are influenced by other regional starting salaries. A $1 increase in a neighboring district generates a $.51 to $.96 increase. Size and distance factors help account for spill-over effects. (Contains 34 references.) (MLH)
Predicting the severity of motor vehicle accident injuries using models of ordered multiple choice
C. J. O'Donnell; D. H. Connor
1996-01-01
This paper presents statistical evidence showing how variations in the attributes of road users can lead to variations in the probabilities of sustaining different levels of injury in motor vehicle accidents. Data from New South Wales, Australia, is used to estimate two models of multiple choice which are reasonably commonplace in the econometrics literature: the ordered logit model and the
The effectiveness of seat belt legislation in reducing driver-involved injury rates in Maryland
Peter D. Loeb
2001-01-01
This study makes use of econometric models to evaluate the effect of the Maryland seat belt law (SBL) on various driver-involved injury rates. Models are developed for various types of injuries using a large data set from the US Department of Transportation's State Traffic Accident Files. Models are normalized for vehicle damage levels and account for the general impact of
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold
This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…
Open Source Software: Management, Diffusion and Competition
Kouroupetroglou, Georgios
-political level (effect). At the economic level, the changes in markets structure and dynamics as a result- ous methodological frameworks of mathematics and econometrics. Results can be a valuable input method of organization and management of human and technol- ogy resources of OSS communities. Second
Forecasting automobile demand using disaggregate choice models
James Berkovec
1985-01-01
This paper presents a simulation model of the American automobile market. The simulation model combines a disaggregate model of household automobile number and type choice with an econometric model of used vehicle scrappage and simple models of new car supply. For fixed vehicle designs, consumer and producer interactions determine new car sales, used car scrappage and consumer vehicle holdings. The
Automated Synthesis by Means of Genetic Programming of Complex Structures Incorporating
Fernandez, Thomas
Chapter 14 Automated Synthesis by Means of Genetic Programming of Complex Structures Incorporating A. Keane3 1 Stanford University, Stanford, California 2 Genetic Programming Inc., Mountain View, California 3 Econometrics Inc., Chicago, Illinois Abstract: Genetic programming can be used as an automated
Three Essays on Climate Variability, Water and Agricultural Production
Ding, Jinxiu
2014-07-23
of a perfect DCV forecast is $40.25 million per year. In the third essay, we use an econometric method to estimate the DCV effects on yields of five crops in the Marias river basin in Montana. We find strong DCV effects on barley, spring/winter wheat...
L’analyse économétrique et la saisonnalité
Éric Ghysels
1994-01-01
In this article, we survey recent developments on the econometric analysis of seasonal time series. As the subject area is rather vast, we cannot cover all aspects of the topic. Instead, we focus exclusively on the subject of seasonal adjustment and other data transformations. Next, we discuss estimation of models with prefiltered data. Finally, our paper concludes with a review
A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro
2015-01-01
The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…
A FARMer's View of the Ricardian Approach to Measuring Agricultural Effects of Climatic Change
Roy Darwin
1999-01-01
During the past few years two new methods, each based on the analogous region concept, have been developed to account for farmer adaptation in response to global climatic change. The first, called 'Ricardian' by Mendelsohn, Nordhaus, and Shaw (1994), econometrically estimates the impact of climatic and other variables on the value of farm real estate. Under some conditions, estimates of
East-West migration in Europe: can migration theories help estimate the numbers?
Oberg, S; Wils, A B
1992-01-01
"In this article, we discuss the types of scientific knowledge that could be used to estimate migration flows." Theories from the disciplines of economics, geography, geopolitics, sociology, demography, econometrics, and history are reviewed. The authors find that "each field provides a partial explanation of...migration flows." The geographical focus is on Europe. PMID:12286068
No Such Thing as a Free Safe Lunch: The Cost of Food Safety Regulation in the Meat Industry
John M. Antle
2000-01-01
This study develops theoretical and econometric cost function models for the meat industry to test the hypothesis of safety exogeneity, i.e., that product safety does not affect productive efficiency. Using plant-level data from the Census of Manufactures, this hypothesis is rejected. Estimates of the impacts of food safety regulation on variable cost of production in the beef, pork, and poultry
Document de travail Lille 1 Lille 2 Lille 3
Boyer, Edmond
Hgh Document de travail Lille 1 Lille 2 Lille 3 [2012Â9] "ENVIRONMENTAL MAINTENANCE IN A DYNAMIC-CambrÂ´esis and Laboratoire EQUIPPE, Uni- versitÂ´e Lille 1, and Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE), UniversitÂ´e catholique de Louvain, Belgium, email: stephane.lambrecht@univ-lille1.fr 1 hal-00989799,version1
Inference Concerning the Number of Factors in a Multivariate Nonparametric Relationship
Stephen G. Donald
1997-01-01
This paper considers the problem of determining the number of factors in a multivariate nonparametric relationship. The definition of factors given is broad enough to encompass a number of potential applications in econometrics, including inferring the rank of demand, consistent tests for lack of identification in linear instrumental variable models, and testing arbitrage pricing theory. The paper gives both series
Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models
Jushan Bai; Serena Ng
2000-01-01
In this paper we develop some econometric theory for factor models of large dimensions. The focus is the determination of the number of factors, which is an unresolved issue in the rapidly growing literature on multifactor models. We propose some panel C(p) criteria and show that the number of factors can be consistently estimated using the criteria. The theory is
The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis
2012-01-01
This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others
This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…
Autor/Author Dozent/Lecturer Titel / Title Signatur VW
Richner, Heinz
: An Empiricist's Companion Princeton University Press 2009 Q.III.B 84 7127 Microeconometrics M Baldwin R. and C. R. Boes, St. and Gerfin, M. The Practice of Econometrics Addison-Wesley 1990 Q.III.A 29 6263 Seminar.II.b 286 (2011) eng 3047 Makroökonomie I B Breyer, F. /Buchholz, W. Gerfin, M. Ökonomie des Sozialstaats
Approved Module Information for BF3358, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Investments Module Code: BF3358
Neirotti, Juan Pablo
of Micro Economics (BS2242). Introduction to Econometrics 1 (BS2247). Introduction to Business Analytics and how to make security selection decisions across a range of asset classes ? Professional Skills ? have allocation Market timing. The Black-Litterman model. Weeks 6-7 Passive security selection Equity indexing
Gabriele Tondl; Goran Vuksicb
2003-01-01
This paper analyses regional growth in Eastern Europe in the second half of the 1990s, when regional disparities sharply increased. We aim to identify the factors behind growth and investigate in particular the role of (foreign) investment, education and innovation as well as geographical factors in a model of economic growth. The key relationships are estimated with spatial econometric tools
Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos
2015-01-01
The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…
Economics & Finance press.princeton.edu
Landweber, Laura
Economics & Finance 2012 press.princeton.edu #12;TEXT Professors who wish to consider a book from & Research 18 Game Theory 22 Finance 23 Econometrics, Mathematical & Applied Economics 26 Political Economy page 25 see page 3 see page 12 see page 20 Contents #12;press.princeton.edu 1 forThcoming Finance
Doctoral Program in Finance: Curriculum Fall FIN 7935 Finance Research Forum (1 credit hour)
Foroosh, Hassan
Doctoral Program in Finance: Curriculum First Year Fall FIN 7935 Finance Research Forum (1 credit of Finance Spring FIN 7935 Finance Research Forum (1 credit hour) ECO 6424 Econometrics I ECO 7116 Microeconomic Theory II FIN 7807 Seminar in Corporate Finance Attend FCTL Teaching Workshop for Doctoral
Testing for duration dependence in economic cycles
Jonathan Ohn; Larry W. Taylor; Adrian Pagan
2004-01-01
Summary In this paper, we discuss discrete-time tests for duration dependence. Two of our test statistics are new to the econometrics literature, and we make an important distinction between the discrete and continuous time frameworks. We then test for duration dependence in business and stock market cycles, and compare our results for business cycles with those of Diebold and Rudebusch
Job performance and job satisfaction: an integrated survey
Maurizio Pugno; Sara Depedri
2009-01-01
The empirical evidence from the econometrics of self-reported job satisfaction and from organisational psychology on job performance confronts economic theory with some puzzling results. Job performance is found to be positively correlated with job satisfaction, whereas effort is assumed to be a disutility in the theory. Economic incentives are not found to be the main motivations of job performance; in
Job Performance and Job Satisfaction: An Integrated Survey
Pugno Maurizio; Depedri Sara
2010-01-01
The empirical evidence from the econometrics of self-reported job satisfaction and from organisational psychology on job performance raises the main issues regarding the relationship between job performance and job satisfaction (i.e. the sign and the direction of causality), and the connected issues of the effectiveness of economic incentives for job performance and job satisfaction with respect to individuals' characteristics and
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Stern, David
1973-01-01
Presents a prototype econometric model of current expenditure. Aims at helping legislatures realize how the amount expended by local school districts would respond to different forms of State aid. The model is specified to permit simulation of alternative formulas for distributing general-purpose State aid. The author examines block grants,…
Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960–2015
Joyce Dargay; Dermot Gately
1999-01-01
This paper makes projections of the growth in the car and total vehicle stock to the year 2015, for OECD countries and a number of developing economies, including China, India, and Pakistan. The projections are based on an econometrically estimated model that explains the growth of the car\\/population ratio (`car ownership') as a function of per-capita income; a similar model
Duration, volume and volatility impact of trades
Simone Manganelli
2005-01-01
This paper presents a framework to model duration, volume and returns simultaneously, obtaining an econometric reduced form that incorporates causal and feedback effects among these variables. The methodology is applied to two groups of stocks, classified according to trade intensity. We find that: (1) all stocks exhibit trading volume clustering (which is significantly higher for frequently traded stocks); (2) times
Technology change in US iron and steel production
Matthias Ruth
1995-01-01
Recent calls for sustainable practices in industry have highlighted the need to assess the interrelationships between changes in industrial material and energy use, availability and quality of material and energy sources, and emissions. This study provides such an assessment for the US iron and steel industry. It quantifies these relationships using econometric time series analysis of aggregate industry behaviour. The
The effect of fuel price increases on road transport CO2 emissions
Simon Virley
1993-01-01
In his March 1993 Budget, the Chancellor announced a commitment to increase the real value of road fuel duty in subsequent Budgets as part of a strategy to return UK CO2 emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. This paper examines the effect of higher fuel prices on UK road transport CO2 emission using an econometric model of road
The Impact of the Congestion Charge on Retail: the London Experience
Mohammed A. Quddus; Alon Carmel; Michael G. H. Bell
2007-01-01
The effect of London's congestion charge on the retail sector has aroused considerable interest since the introduction of the scheme in February 2003. We investigate the impact of the congestion charge using a variety of econometric models applied to a total retail sales index for central London (monthly) and weekly retail sales data for the John Lewis Oxford Street store
Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Rosen, Harvey S.
1976-01-01
Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…
A frontier model for landscape ecology: the tapir in Honduras
Kevin M. Flesher; Eduardo Leyy
1996-01-01
We borrow a frontier specification from the econometrics literature to make inferences about the tolerance of the tapir to\\u000a human settlements. We estimate the width of an invisible band surrounding human settlements which would act as a frontier\\u000a or exclusion zone to the tapir to be around 290 metres.
When information dominates comparison
Claudia Senik
2004-01-01
We propose a micro-econometric evaluation of the relation between life satisfaction and income distribution, using a balanced panel survey of the Russian population, Russian longitudinal monitoring survey (RLMS), running from 1994 to 2000, covering 4685 individuals. We show that in the context of the very volatile Russian environment, Hirschman’s [Q. J. Econ. 87 (1973) 544] “tunnel effect” conjecture seems to
When Information Dominates Comparison. A Panel Data Analysis Using Russian Subjective Data
Claudia Senik
2002-01-01
We propose a micro-econometric investigation into the relation between subjective life satisfaction and income distribution, using a balanced panel survey of the Russian population (RLMS), running from 1994 to 2000, including 4096 individuals. We show that in the context of the Russian very volatile environment, Hirschman's (1973) \\
W. Wayne Fu
2004-01-01
This article studies network effects induced by termination-based price discrimination in the evolving Taiwan mobile phone market. An econometric model that estimates the effects attests to the formation of bandwagon behavior among network subscribers. It is shown that networks with a large subscriber base will recruit a disproportionately greater share of new users ceteris paribus compared with low-penetration operators. The
The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Yeh, Stuart S.
2009-01-01
Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…
The Demand for Higher Education in the Netherlands, 1950-1999
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Canton, Erik; de Jong, Frank
2005-01-01
This paper investigates the role of economic factors in the university enrollment decision for the post-war period in The Netherlands. We include those factors standing at the heart of the idea that education is an investment. The econometric results suggest that students are not responsive to tuition fees, but financial support (the sum of loans…
University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia
2011-01-01
Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…
The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda
2015-01-01
Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…
Teaching Statistics in an Activity Encouraging Format
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Knypstra, Sytse
2009-01-01
In a statistics course for bachelor students in econometrics a new format was adopted in which students were encouraged to study more actively and in which cooperative learning and peer teaching was implemented. Students had to work in groups of two or three students where each group had to perform certain tasks. One of these tasks was: explaining…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Cooper, Michelle Asha
2009-01-01
This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…
Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.
2011-01-01
The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…
Factors of the Earning Functions and Their Influence on the Intellectual Capital of an Organization
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile; Tanasoiu, Ovidiu Emil
2008-01-01
This paper tries to consider some earning function as "start point" for the construction of indicators for intellectual capital measure. The analyze combines concepts from Mincer's and Becker theories and intellectual capital definitions currently in use. The correlation, significance and relation between elements are shown using three econometric…
The Determinants of College Student Retention
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Guerrero, Adam A.
2010-01-01
This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Pellizzari, Michele; Redaelli, Silvia
2009-01-01
In this paper we investigate whether peers' behavior influences the choice of college major, thus contributing to the mismatch of skills in the labor market. Using a newly constructed dataset, we are able to identify the endogenous effect of peers on such decisions through a novel identification strategy that solves the common econometric problems…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ehrenberg. R. G.; Smith, C. L.
2003-01-01
Econometric analysis uses data from a panel of selected private research universities and liberal-arts colleges that span a 31-year period to provide explanations for differences across institutions in the sources and uses of giving. Finds, for example, that richer institutions devote a larger share of their annual giving to further building their…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David
2010-01-01
The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Xu, Yonghong Jade
2013-01-01
Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…
Using Shocks to School Enrollment to Estimate the Effect of School Size on Student Achievement
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kuziemko, Ilyana
2006-01-01
Previous studies of the connection between school enrollment size and student achievement use cross-sectional econometric models and thus do not account for unobserved heterogeneity across schools. To address this concern, I utilize school-level panel data, and generate first-differences estimates of the effect of school size on achievement.…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra
2015-01-01
This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…
The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng
2007-01-01
Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…
Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo
2009-01-01
For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…
School Effects that Shape Students' Intentions To Stay on in Education.
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Thomas, Wayne; Webber, Don J.; Walton, Fiona
2003-01-01
Econometric estimations using Bradford Youth Cohort data investigated influences on intention to continue education after age 16. Fixed effects nominal logit regression analyses identified significant effects of school quality, teachers' advice, work experience, neighborhood income, and ability. (Contains 37 references.) (SK)
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David
2012-01-01
This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Ng, Larson S. W. M.
2011-01-01
The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…
Oh No! I Got the Wrong Sign! What Should I Do?
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Kennedy, Peter E.
2005-01-01
Getting a "wrong" sign in empirical work is a common phenomenon. Remarkably, econometrics textbooks provide very little information to practitioners on how this problem can arise. The author exposits a long list of ways in which a wrong sign can occur and how it might be corrected.
Kuo S. Huang
1998-01-01
This session focuses on advanced econometric issues in demand estimation. Testing Aggregation Without Separability in Meat Demand: An Investigation of the Generalized Composite Commodity Theorem George Davis, Texas A&M University. A New, More General Demand System: The Nested PIGLOG Julian Alston and James Chalfant, University of California-Davis; Nicholas Piggott, North Carolina State University. An Almost Ideal Demand System with Global
J. M. C. Santos Silva; Silvana Tenreyro
2006-01-01
Although economists have long been aware of Jensen's inequality, many econometric applications have neglected an important implication of it: under heteroskedasticity, the parameters of log-linearized models estimated by OLS lead to biased estimates of the true elasticities. We explain why this problem arises and propose an appropriate estimator. Our criticism of conventional practices and the proposed solution extend to a
Anton Nakov
2010-01-01
I replicate most of the results in Angrist, Imbens, and Krueger (Journal of Applied Econometrics 1999; 14: 57-67), point to a possible error in and re-estimate Model 3, and analyze some simple extensions. The programming code, data, and results are available at
POLITICAL ECONOMY SECS-P/02 ECONOMIC POLICY SECS-P/03 FINANCE SECS-P/05 ECONOMETRICS SECS-P/06 APPLIED Development and Global Dynamics" XXV cycle THE RECTOR Given Law no. 210 of 3.07.1998, and in particular, art criteria for uniform treatment regarding the right to higher education; Given the Statute of the University
A model of the Dutch labour market (AMOK)
J. A. M. Heijke; J. De Koning; R. J. M. Maas; G. Den Broeder
1985-01-01
Summary So far, the labour market has not received any special attention from macro-econometric model builders. In this article an attempt has been made to describe the labour market in detail, paying attention to such important phenomena as the friction between labour supply and demand, the heterogeneity of labour, the dependence of labour supply on the labour-market situation, the Phillips
Exchange Rate Pass-Throught to Domestic Prices: The Case of Colombia
Peter Rowland
2004-01-01
This study uses two different econometric frameworks to study exchange rate pass-throught to import, producer and consumer prices in Colombia. Both frameworks are based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models, the first using an unrestricted VAR model, and the second using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. Exchange rate pass-through is shown to be incomplete. Import prices, nevertheless, respond quickly to
EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES: THE CASE OF COLOMBIA
Peter Rowland
2003-01-01
This study uses two different econometric frameworks to study exchange rate passthrough to import, producer and consumer prices in Colombia. Both frameworks are based on vector autoregressive (VAR) models, the first using an unrestricted VAR model, and the second using the Johansen framework of multivariate cointegration. Exchange rate pass-through is shown to be incomplete. Import prices, nevertheless, respond quickly to
Measuring the Influence of Unemployment Insurance on Unemployment Experiences
R. Mark Gritz; Thomas MaCurdy
1997-01-01
This article investigates the comprehensive effects of unemployment insurance (UI) policies on the amount of time and unemployment that individuals report between jobs. The econometric model jointly determines the effects of UI on the lengths of nonemployment spells, the classification of these spells as unemployment, and the likelihood of collecting program benefits. The model carefully attempts to isolate variation in
ERIC Educational Resources Information Center
Mason, Andrew; And Others
The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…
A regime-switching relative value arbitrage rule
Michael Bock; Roland Mestel
In this situation, pairs trading suggests to take a long position in the relative undervalued stock, while the relative overvalued stock should be shortened. The formation of the pairs ensues from a cointegration analysis of the historical prices. Consequently, pairs trading represents a form of statistical arbitrage where econometric time series models are applied to identify trading signals. However, fundamental
Why is trade at borders a costly affair in South Asia? An empirical investigation
Prabir De
2011-01-01
Through the agreement on the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA), South Asian countries are now looking towards deeper integration of the region. Nevertheless, South Asia is far from realising its full potential. The econometric evidence provided in this article strengthens the existing linkage of trade costs, transit and trade flows; the higher the transaction costs between each pair of
Angus S. Deaton
2009-01-01
There is currently much debate about the effectiveness of foreign aid and about what kind of projects can engender economic development. There is skepticism about the ability of econometric analysis to resolve these issues, or of development agencies to learn from their own experience. In response, there is movement in development economics towards the use of randomized controlled trials (RCTs)