Science.gov

Sample records for econometrics

  1. Econometric Studies of Higher Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.

    The econometrics of higher education emerged from the development of human capital theory and efforts to estimate rates of return to education in the 1960s and 1970s. This paper surveys the various strands of the literature on the econometrics of higher education that have developed during the last 40 years and indicates how a collection of papers…

  2. An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taff, L. G.

    2010-02-01

    The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

  3. Econometrics Lectures in a Computer Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Michael P.

    1999-01-01

    Discusses the impact of teaching econometrics, particularly the theoretical aspects, in a computer classroom focusing on the hands-on and discovery learning approaches that computers encourage. Explores the problems that occur when teaching in a computer classroom, such as the increase in course preparation time. Includes reactions by Jeffrey…

  4. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  5. Econometrics and Psychometrics: A Survey of Communalities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldberger, Arthur S.

    1971-01-01

    Several themes which are common to both econometrics and psychometrics are surveyed. The themes are illustrated by reference to permanent income hypotheses, simultaneous equation models, adaptive expectations and partial adjustment schemes, and by reference to test score theory, factor analysis, and time-series models. (Author)

  6. Essays in financial economics and econometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Spada, Gabriele

    Chapter 1 (my job market paper) asks the following question: Do asset managers reach for yield because of competitive pressures in a low rate environment? I propose a tournament model of money market funds (MMFs) to study this issue. I show that funds with different costs of default respond differently to changes in interest rates, and that it is important to distinguish the role of risk-free rates from that of risk premia. An increase in the risk premium leads funds with lower default costs to increase risk-taking, while funds with higher default costs reduce risk-taking. Without changes in the premium, low risk-free rates reduce risk-taking. My empirical analysis shows that these predictions are consistent with the risk-taking of MMFs during the 2006--2008 period. Chapter 2, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo and published in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2014), studies the effect of round-off error (or discretization) on stationary Gaussian long-memory process. For large lags, the autocovariance is rescaled by a factor smaller than one, and we compute this factor exactly. Hence, the discretized process has the same Hurst exponent as the underlying one. We show that in presence of round-off error, two common estimators of the Hurst exponent, the local Whittle (LW) estimator and the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), are severely negatively biased in finite samples. We derive conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality of the LW estimator applied to discretized processes and compute the asymptotic properties of the DFA for generic long-memory processes that encompass discretized processes. Chapter 3, co-authored with Fabrizio Lillo, studies the effect of round-off error on integrated Gaussian processes with possibly correlated increments. We derive the variance and kurtosis of the realized increment process in the limit of both "small" and "large" round-off errors, and its autocovariance for large lags. We propose novel estimators for the variance and lag-one autocorrelation of the underlying, unobserved increment process. We also show that for fractionally integrated processes, the realized increments have the same Hurst exponent as the underlying ones, but the LW estimator applied to the realized series is severely negatively biased in medium-sized samples.

  7. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  8. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  9. An Econometric Model of the Performing Arts. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schwarz, Samuel; Greenfield, Harry I.

    An effort was made to construct and apply an econometric model to explain selected trends and characteristics of symphony orchestras, based on data for the years 1949-75 from 17 major orchestras belonging to the American Symphony Orchestra League. The average length of the playing season increased from about 26 to 49 weeks during the period of the…

  10. State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

    The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

  11. Technology trends in econometric energy models: Ignorance or information

    SciTech Connect

    Boyd, G. ); Kokkelenberg, E. State Univ., of New York, Binghamton, NY Dept. of Economics); Ross, M. Michigan Univ., Ann Arbor, MI . Dept. of Physics)

    1991-01-01

    Simple time trend variables in factor demand models can be statistically powerful variables, but may tell the researcher very little. Even more complex specification of technical change, e.g. factor biased, are still the economentrician's measure of ignorance'' about the shifts that occur in the underlying production process. Furthermore, in periods of rapid technology change the parameters based on time trends may be too large for long run forecasting. When there is clearly identifiable engineering information about new technology adoption that changes the factor input mix, data for the technology adoption may be included in the traditional factor demand model to economically model specific factor biased technical change and econometrically test their contribution. The adoption of thermomechanical pulping (TMP) and electric are furnaces (EAF) are two electricity intensive technology trends in the Paper and Steel industries, respectively. This paper presents the results of including these variables in a tradition econometric factor demand model, which is based on the Generalized Leontief. The coefficients obtained for this engineering based'' technical change compares quite favorably to engineering estimates of the impact of TMP and EAF on electricity intensities, improves the estimates of the other price coefficients, and yields a more believable long run electricity forecast. 6 refs., 1 fig.

  12. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling. PMID:12804277

  13. The econometric submodels of the Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM)

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, J.G.; Poyer, D.A.

    1994-04-01

    The Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model (EPSIM) is an econometric simulation model that runs on IBM-compatible personal computers. It can be used to assess the economic impact of energy policies and programs, such as utility rate designs and demand-side management programs, on various population groups, such as minority and low-income households. The econometric submodels that constitute the internal structure of EPSIM are described in detail.

  14. An update on econometric studies of energy demand behavior

    SciTech Connect

    Bohi, D.R.; Zimmerman, M.B.

    1984-01-01

    A by-product of the energy crisis has been a strong interest in modeling energy demand. Although the crisis has subsided in the last few years, the number of new demand studies has not. At least forty new econmetric studies of energy demand have been published since the appearance of three recent and comprehensive surveys of the literature. It is useful to keep abreast of developments in the literature, because the stock of information about demand continues to develop much like any other capital stock, with existing information in varying stages of obsolescence as new techniques and data bases are developed and exploited. Two kinds of information are conveyed in this body of literature: estimates of how demand behaves, and alternative ways of making the estimates. The information is sometimes bewildering, however, because of the variety of techniques employed and the disparities among the results. The authors' primary interest in this survey, is the sensitivity of statistical results to differences in modeling techniques and sample data. This exercise can serve as a basis for evaluating and choosing among alternative procedures and alternative statistical results. The literature on this subject is inherently technical, making it difficult to avoid specialized terminology and concepts. At the same time, nonspecialists are frequently the users of the information contained in econometric demand studies and should be aware of some of the technical issues that affect the reliability of that information.

  15. Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gerkman, Linda

    2012-07-01

    The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

  16. Forecasting space weather: Can new econometric methods improve accuracy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reikard, Gordon

    2011-06-01

    Space weather forecasts are currently used in areas ranging from navigation and communication to electric power system operations. The relevant forecast horizons can range from as little as 24 h to several days. This paper analyzes the predictability of two major space weather measures using new time series methods, many of them derived from econometrics. The data sets are the A p geomagnetic index and the solar radio flux at 10.7 cm. The methods tested include nonlinear regressions, neural networks, frequency domain algorithms, GARCH models (which utilize the residual variance), state transition models, and models that combine elements of several techniques. While combined models are complex, they can be programmed using modern statistical software. The data frequency is daily, and forecasting experiments are run over horizons ranging from 1 to 7 days. Two major conclusions stand out. First, the frequency domain method forecasts the A p index more accurately than any time domain model, including both regressions and neural networks. This finding is very robust, and holds for all forecast horizons. Combining the frequency domain method with other techniques yields a further small improvement in accuracy. Second, the neural network forecasts the solar flux more accurately than any other method, although at short horizons (2 days or less) the regression and net yield similar results. The neural net does best when it includes measures of the long-term component in the data.

  17. An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

    1982-01-01

    In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

  18. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  19. Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gana, Rajaram

    This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

  20. The Nexus of Place and Finance in the Analysis of Educational Attainment: A Spatial Econometric Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, Farah

    2012-01-01

    This study examines the spatial distribution of educational attainment and then builds upon current predictive frameworks for understanding patterns of educational attainment by applying a spatial econometric method of analysis. The research from this study enables a new approach to the policy discussion on how to improve educational attainment…

  1. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  2. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  3. Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

    2011-01-01

    Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

  4. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  5. Development and application of econometric demand and supply models for selected Chesapeake Bay seafood products

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Moe, R.J.

    1984-12-01

    Five models were developed to forecast future Chesapeake seafood product prices, harvest quantities, and resulting income. Annual econometric models are documented for oysters, hard and soft blue crabs, and hard and soft clams. To the degree that data permit, these models represent demand and supply at the retail, wholesale, and harvest levels. The resulting models have broad applications in environmental policy issues and regulatory analyses for the Chesapeake Bay. 37 references, 10 figures, 99 tables.

  6. Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schu, Kathryn L.

    Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements. Neither policy induces major increases in fuel economy.

  7. A multi-equation spatial econometric model, with application to EU manufacturing productivity growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fingleton, Bernard

    2007-06-01

    A multi-equation spatial econometric model is used to explain variations across EU regions in manufacturing productivity growth based on recent theoretical developments in urban economics and economic geography. The paper shows that temporal and spatial parameter homogeneity is an unrealistic assumption, contrary to what is typically assumed in the literature. Constraints are imposed on parameters across time periods and between core and peripheral regions of the EU, with the significant loss of fit providing overwhelming evidence of parameter heterogeneity, although the final model does highlight increasing returns to scale, which is a central feature of contemporary theory.

  8. HIV prevalence and poverty in Africa: micro- and macro-econometric evidences applied to Burkina Faso.

    PubMed

    Lachaud, Jean-Pierre

    2007-05-01

    Based on the data of the Demographic and Health Survey, and of the Household Priority Survey, carried out in 2003, the present study, examining the factors of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso, provides two conclusions. Firstly, the fight against poverty is not necessarily a means of reducing simultaneously and drastically HIV/AIDS prevalence, an assertion based on several elements of empirical analysis. First of all, the micro-econometric estimates of the probit models suggest a positive relationship between HIV prevalence in adult women and men, and living standards of individuals. Then, the macro-econometric approach reveals the existence of a positive (negative) relationship between, on the one hand, the level of regional HIV prevalence, and, on the other hand, the average monetary provincial standard of living (poverty) of households. At the same time, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty, apprehended at the regional level, is not linear. Secondly, and correlatively, the relationship between HIV prevalence and poverty is called into question. First of all, some structural factors may contribute to a distortion of the relationship between resources of households and the prevalence of HIV/AIDS. This may be due, on the one hand, to the persistence of cognitive and behavioural factors inherent in a traditional society, and in particular, to the fact that the social construction of female attributes and roles confers to men a statute of "decision-makers" with regard to sexual intercourse, while the persistence of secular beliefs contributes to minimizing the perception of HIV/AIDS in terms of risk, independently of standards of living. In addition, the enclavement of Burkina Faso required development of road and railway traffic with neighbouring countries, in particular Côte d'Ivoire. Therefore, it may be that the structural conditions of the process of development of Burkina Faso, concomitant with significant flows of the exchange of goods, services and labour with a country where the prevalence of the HIV is particularly high, constitute an element of an explanation of the positive relationship between the resources of households and HIV seroprevalence. Also, factors related to the economic situation probably contributed to reinforcing the opposite relationship between HIV seroprevalence and poverty, the macro-econometric analysis highlighting a direct relationship between the massive return of migrants of Côte d'Ivoire and the level of HIV prevalence in Burkina Faso. PMID:17113173

  9. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  10. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  11. Retail gas prices and its effect on actual automobile purchases: An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shaw, Brian F., Sr.

    Weekly aggregate vehicle purchase and retail gasoline price data, over the time span of 2001.01 to 2005.52, were used to determine in the Phoenix, Arizona metropolitan area if the price of gasoline helped to predict vehicle purchases. This time period and data set included the effects of rapidly changing technology and rapidly increasing retail gasoline prices. This time series econometric analysis took advantage of the Phillips-Perron and Augmented Dickey Fuller tests for stationarity, as well as the concept of Granger causality to answer this question. Short-run relationships were present and were not contingent on the gender of the purchaser. The long-run results were affirmative for female purchasers and there was not enough evidence to conclude the same for male purchasers.

  12. Price and income elasticities of energy demand: Some estimates for Kuwait using two econometric models

    SciTech Connect

    Al-Mutairi, N.H.; Eltony, M.N.

    1995-12-31

    This paper estimates the demand for energy in Kuwait for the period 1965-1989 using two econometric models: a cointegration and error correction model (ECM) and a simultaneous-equation model (SEM). The results obtained from both models are similar. It is found that the energy demand is inelastic with respect to price in the short and long run, and while it is elastic in the long run, the energy demand is inelastic with respect to income in the short run. Both models` validation shows that the ECM performed better in replicating the past than the simultaneous model, suggesting the need to use the ECM to identify future prospects for energy demand in Kuwait.

  13. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  14. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T; Lantz, Margaret W; Hauser, Katie R

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  15. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors). PMID:17854577

  16. The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

    2010-05-01

    Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. PMID:19914750

  17. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Methods Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. Results For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Conclusions Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered. PMID:22413884

  18. An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  19. Thailand's natural rubber economy in an international setting: an econometric investigation

    SciTech Connect

    Suwanakul, S.

    1986-01-01

    The Thai natural rubber economy is described in the context of the world rubber market. An econometric model is estimated for 15 structural equations; it includes the Thai, US, and rest-of-the-world rubber economies. Several simulation experiments are analyzed for the period from 1984 to 1995. Impact and dynamic multipliers are reported for major endogenous variables in response to changes in US GDP, world crude oil price, Thai replanting cess tax and Thai natural rubber production. A 1%, one-time increase in the US GDP has a positive effect on the Singapore natural rubber price. A world crude oil price decline shock has a negative effect in both the short-run and the long-run. The INRO buffer stock stabilization policy as well as alternative domestic Thai policies of market intervention are analyzed. The simulation results show that buffer stock management which allows a price band of +/-20% around the price target has the most stabilized price, compared to other band widths and no stock management. The outcome of the increase of the Thai replanting cess tax raises not only cess tax revenue, but also producer and export earning. Results showed that a decrease in rubber production positively affected producer and export earnings in the long-run.

  20. The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fisher, W. P., Jr.

    2010-07-01

    In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

  1. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

    PubMed Central

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

  2. An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

    PubMed

    Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

    2012-01-01

    This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

  3. Peer Influences on Drug Self-Administration: An Econometric Analysis in Socially Housed Rats

    PubMed Central

    Peitz, Geoffrey W.; Strickland, Justin C.; Pitts, Elizabeth G.; Foley, Mark; Tonidandel, Scott; Smith, Mark A.

    2013-01-01

    Social-learning theories of substance use propose that members of peer groups influence the drug use of other members by selectively modeling, reinforcing, and punishing either abstinence-related or drug-related behaviors. The objective of the present study was to examine social influences on cocaine self-administration in isolated and socially housed rats, with the caveat that the socially housed rats were tested simultaneously with their partner in the same chamber. To this end, male rats were obtained at weaning and housed in isolated or pair-housed conditions for 6 weeks. Rats were then implanted with intravenous catheters and cocaine self-administration was examined in custom-built operant conditioning chambers that allowed two rats to be tested simultaneously. For some socially housed subjects, both rats had simultaneous access to cocaine; for others, only one rat of the pair had access to cocaine. An econometric analysis was applied to the data, and the reinforcing strength of cocaine was measured by examining consumption (i.e., quantity demanded) and elasticity of demand as a function of price, which was manipulated by varying the dose and ratio requirements on a fixed ratio schedule of reinforcement. Cocaine consumption decreased as a function of price in all groups. Elasticity of demand did not vary across groups, but consumption was significantly lower in socially housed rats paired with a rat without access to cocaine. These data suggest that the presence of an abstaining peer decreases the reinforcing strength of cocaine, thus supporting the development of social interventions in drug abuse prevention and treatment programs. PMID:23412112

  4. Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation (fields in and out of production). The other three methods provide verification of the accuracy of the HLM model and create a robust comparison of the water savings estimates. Seventeen factors were used to isolate the effect of precision leveling from variations in climate, investments in other irrigation improvements, and farmers' management skills. These statistical analyses yield accurate water savings estimates because they consider farmers' actual irrigation technology and practices. Results suggest that savings from water conservation technology under farmers' actual production systems and management are less than those reported by experimental field studies. These water savings measure the 'in situ' effect of the technology, considering farmers' actual irrigation practices and technology. In terms of the accuracy of the models, HLM provides the most precise estimate of the impact of precision leveling on a field's water usage. The HLM estimate was within the 95% confidence interval of the other three models, thus verifying the accuracy and robustness of the statistical findings and model.

  5. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distributions that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global changes and refine adaptive management strategies.

  6. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  7. Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

    SciTech Connect

    Usip, E.E.E.

    1984-01-01

    The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

  8. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  9. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2014-09-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.

  10. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.

  11. Econometric analysis of the changing effects in wind strength and significant wave height on the probability of casualty in shipping.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Sabine; Kumar, Shashi; Sakurada, Yuri; Shen, Jiajun

    2011-05-01

    This study uses econometric models to measure the effect of significant wave height and wind strength on the probability of casualty and tests whether these effects changed. While both effects are in particular relevant for stability and strength calculations of vessels, it is also helpful for the development of ship construction standards in general to counteract increased risk resulting from changing oceanographic conditions. The authors analyzed a unique dataset of 3.2 million observations from 20,729 individual vessels in the North Atlantic and Arctic regions gathered during the period 1979-2007. The results show that although there is a seasonal pattern in the probability of casualty especially during the winter months, the effect of wind strength and significant wave height do not follow the same seasonal pattern. Additionally, over time, significant wave height shows an increasing effect in January, March, May and October while wind strength shows a decreasing effect, especially in January, March and May. The models can be used to simulate relationships and help understand the relationships. This is of particular interest to naval architects and ship designers as well as multilateral agencies such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that establish global standards in ship design and construction. PMID:21376925

  12. An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.

    1999-03-01

    This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.

  13. Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C.; Cronin, F.J.

    1985-02-01

    Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.

  14. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  15. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distribution that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global change and refine adaptive management strategies.

  16. Applying econometric techniques to hydrological problems in a large basin: Quantifying the rainfall-discharge relationship in the Burdekin, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, Diane; Stoeckl, Natalie; Chaiechi, Taha

    2013-07-01

    This study seeks to explore the relationship between rainfall and river discharge within a large river basin flowing into the waters surrounding the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and to investigate the best method of measuring the relationship. This aim is addressed by focusing on three specific research questions: (A) Has there been any evidence that global climate change has impacted on either rainfall or river discharge resulting in any change to the relationship between these variables over time? (B) What is the best measure of rainfall to be used to quantify the rainfall-discharge relationship, including the optimal number of rain stations to be included in the sample? (C) What is the optimal temporal scale for measuring the relationship (ranging from fine scale monthly data, medium scale quarterly data, and coarse scale annual data)? Modern econometric time series techniques are utilised, and compared with results using an alternate technique developed by researchers from the bio-physical sciences; the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. Firstly, stationarity testing, using econometric unit root tests, did not find evidence to suggest that the data are non-stationary. Evidently, climate change has not had a measurable impact on rainfall or river discharge in the region during the period covered by this study. Secondly, the analysis shows that the when dealing with fairly simple models with a fairly small number of explanatory variables, those which best represent the river-discharge relationship are those using the coarser scales (both geographic and temporal). In other words, stronger and more robust results are derived from models using fewer rain stations, and annual data (rather than quarterly or monthly data). This approach provides a viable alternative that may be very useful in data-poor environments when it is not possible to use other more data-hungry modelling approaches. The econometric models provided a better explanation of the relationship than the Thiessen Polygon approach, whilst utilising data from a smaller number of rain stations. The most appropriate functional form was that using the natural logs of discharge as the dependent variable, and the relationship appears to be a fairly simple one, with the inclusion of lagged data from previous years not significantly improving the explanation provided by current year models. The approach demonstrates that simple time series models can be enriched by the incorporation of additional variables beyond rainfall levels; both temperatures and rainfall concentration were considered with the inclusion of a rainfall concentration index proving to significantly improve the explanatory power of the model for this study region.

  17. [Are there irrationalities in the consumption of anti-obesity drugs in Brazil? A pharmaco-econometric analysis of panel datasets].

    PubMed

    Mota, Daniel Marques; de Oliveira, Márcia Gonçalves; Bovi, Rafael Filiacci; Silva, Sidarta Figueredo; Cunha, Jeane Araújo Fernandes; Divino, José Angelo

    2014-05-01

    The scope of this study is to analyze the determinants of the use of appetite suppressants (amfepramone, femproporex, mazindol and sibutramine) through the estimation of a dynamic panel dataset model for the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District (DF) in the period from 2009 to 2011. The results show that consumption of appetite suppressants did not follow the geographic distribution of overweight and obese individuals across the capitals and DF. There is a recurrent consumption of appetite inhibitors, in which 79% of the current consumption of these drugs is explained by past consumption. Among the variables that explain the use of inhibitors, the percentage of obese adults, the percentage of adults who habitually consume fruit and vegetables, and the coverage rate of health plans stand out. The pharmaco-econometric analysis suggests that there are problems in the rational use of appetite suppressants in the Brazilian state capitals and the Federal District with respect to both the combined consumption of these drugs with other medicines - deemed illegal by the Federal Council of Medicine and ANVISA - and in the therapeutic prescription of these products. PMID:24897204

  18. Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Briggs, Adam D M; Kehlbacher, Ariane; Tiffin, Richard; Garnett, Tara; Rayner, Mike; Scarborough, Peter

    2013-01-01

    Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100?g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18?683 (14?665to 22?889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15?228 (11?245to 19?492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets. PMID:24154517

  19. Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

    2015-03-01

    Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ? = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province. PMID:25515074

  20. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ?25) and obese (?30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ?50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180?000 (110?000 to 247?000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285?000 (201?000 to 364?000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180?000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults. PMID:24179043

  1. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for themore » criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.« less

  2. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.

  3. An econometric explanation of nuclear plant costs

    SciTech Connect

    Babar, R.A.; Bushnell, R.C.; Pearsall, E.S.

    1986-04-01

    What are the standards by which the costs of nuclear plants should be judged. It is a fact that the costs of many of the units built today would seem to be costing ten times their original estimated cost. Is this prudent. Have the utilities acted with ''due care'', with ''prudence''. This is the question being asked by regulatory bodies in numerous forums today. This paper attempts to answer the question.

  4. Manpower Projections to 1980. Econometric Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubota, Gordon H.; Tsukahara, Theodore, Jr.

    The objective of this study was to develop an economic approach to the forecasting of allied health manpower in markets in the State of California. The health manpower categories considered included: (1) Medical technology, (2) occupational therapy, (3) dietetic and nutritional services, (4) physical therapy, (5) health administration, (6)…

  5. An Econometric Analysis of Teacher Mobility.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bempah, E. Osei; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Uses Missouri beginning teacher survey to analyze teacher migration. Develops simultaneous equations model to identify teacher and school district characteristics predictive of teacher mobility and determine predictive relationships between teachers' annual earnings and selected demographic and geographic variables. Findings support conventional…

  6. Econometric and Statistical Bases for the Non-Econometrician

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyzenhouse, Joanne

    1978-01-01

    An overview is provided for librarians of the types of statistical or numeric data bases offered by Data Resources, Inc., General Electric Information Division, Predicasts, and Interactive Data Corporation. Tables list the types of data or statistical information available from each. (JPF)

  7. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  8. Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control Knob”

    PubMed Central

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a “feedback” from rising temperatures initially resulting only from “non-condensing” GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H2O]). However, this paper shows that “initial radiative forcing” is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H2O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective “control knob” as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010). PMID:22629196

  9. Econometric estimation of country-specific hospital costs

    PubMed Central

    Adam, Taghreed; Evans, David B; Murray, Christopher JL

    2003-01-01

    Information on the unit cost of inpatient and outpatient care is an essential element for costing, budgeting and economic-evaluation exercises. Many countries lack reliable estimates, however. WHO has recently undertaken an extensive effort to collect and collate data on the unit cost of hospitals and health centres from as many countries as possible; so far, data have been assembled from 49 countries, for various years during the period 1973–2000. The database covers a total of 2173 country-years of observations. Large gaps remain, however, particularly for developing countries. Although the long-term solution is that all countries perform their own costing studies, the question arises whether it is possible to predict unit costs for different countries in a standardized way for short-term use. The purpose of the work described in this paper, a modelling exercise, was to use the data collected across countries to predict unit costs in countries for which data are not yet available, with the appropriate uncertainty intervals. The model presented here forms part of a series of models used to estimate unit costs for the WHO-CHOICE project. The methods and the results of the model, however, may be used to predict a number of different types of country-specific unit costs, depending on the purpose of the exercise. They may be used, for instance, to estimate the costs per bed-day at different capacity levels; the "hotel" component of cost per bed-day; or unit costs net of particular components such as drugs. In addition to reporting estimates for selected countries, the paper shows that unit costs of hospitals vary within countries, sometimes by an order of magnitude. Basing cost-effectiveness studies or budgeting exercises on the results of a study of a single facility, or even a small group of facilities, is likely to be misleading. PMID:12773218

  10. The Econometric Analysis of Tomato Production with contracting in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunes, Erdogan

    Turkey is the largest grower of processing tomatoes in the world after the US, Italy, China and Spain. Growing tomatoes for sauce is one of the two major uses of contract farming in Turkey and this activity involves arrangements between private sauce companies and farms. This practice is now wide spread since the 1970s, especially in the Marmara Region. Before the production season begins, sauce industry firms sign contracts with farms that guarantee the quality and quantity of their raw material and guarantee the growers sales at predetermined prices. In addition, plants served to farmers for more productivity by techniques such as drop irrigation and also their extension services and field demonstrations at this region. This research is based on interviews with 100 farms that growing tomatoes for sauce factories in Bursa province to determine relationships between plants and farms and factors affecting tomato cultivation land. At this research, farms were divided to two groups based on tomatoes cultivation land. It was found that plants had highly effective on tomatoes land by means of input and supports on finance to the farms with logarithmic models.

  11. Applying econometrics to the carbon dioxide "control knob".

    PubMed

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a "feedback" from rising temperatures initially resulting only from "non-condensing" GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H(2)O]). However, this paper shows that "initial radiative forcing" is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H(2)O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective "control knob" as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010). PMID:22629196

  12. Essays on the economics and econometrics of human capital

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosso, Stefano

    This thesis is composed by three distinct chapters. They are related by their common theme: the economic analysis of the process of human capital formation. The first chapter distills and extends the recent research on the economics of human development and social mobility. It critically analyzes the literature on the role of early life conditions in shaping multiple life skills with emphasis on the importance of critical and sensitive investments periods in influencing skill development. It develops economic models that rationalize the empirical evidence on treatment effects of social programs and on family influence. It investigates the empirical support of recent claims, made by part of the literature, on the relevance of credit constraints in limiting skill development. It shows how credit constraints are not a major force explaining differences in the amount of parental and self-investments in skills and how untargeted income transfer policies to poor families do not significantly boost child outcomes. The second chapter compares the performance of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments in estimating dynamic discrete choice models. It presents a structural model of education and shows how it can be used to estimate heterogeneous returns from schooling choices which account for their continuation values. Continuation values have a large impact on returns, but are ignored in the measures commonly used to assess the value of schooling choices. The estimates from the model are used to compute a synthetic dataset. This is used to assess the ability of maximum likelihood and simulated methods of moments to recover the model parameters. It finally proposes a Monte Carlo exercise to gain confidence on the performance of a simulated method of moments algorithm. The last chapter proposes a method to assess long run impacts on earnings of early interventions even in absence of long-term data collection on earnings histories for program participants. It combines the methodological approaches of the literature on program evaluation, data combination and forecasting to develop estimators of the average treatment effects. This exercise allows a more complete cost-benefit evaluation of social programs accounting for benefits over the whole life cycle.

  13. Fertility decisions and desires in Bangladesh: an econometric investigation.

    PubMed

    Sirageldin, I; Khan, M A; Shah, F; Ariturk, A

    1976-07-01

    2 models are developed to examine fertility behavior in Bangladesh. The 1st model deals with the total number of ever-born children to a couple; the 2nd examines sequential decisions that characterize the desire for an additional child. The "Chicago-Columbia" or "New Home Economics" approach is used, but to the usual economic variables are added sociological and demographic variables; and fertility is examined in relation to the prices of child services consumed as well as a valuation of the mother's time. The data for the study were drawn from a sample of 3088 currently married women respondents to the 1968/69 Impact Survey (an extended KAP survey). The model for completed family size uses 4 endogenous variables: total live births, number of dead children, current income, and female labor force participation; these are examined in terms of 14 exogenous variables, including property ownership, age, literacy, awareness of family planning, rural vs urban, type of family, size of family, and schooling. The model is built on 4 equations with parameters estimated by 2-stage least squares technic and then subjected to multivariate analysis. The model for demand for additional children added 5 exogenous variables including sex of children, desire for children, and perceived need for education of children. This model was examined using standard probit analysis. Interpretation of the 2 models showed that 1) Income was positively related to completed family size but has no effect on desire for additional children; 2) female education, female employment, and cost of fertility control had no effect in either model; 3) Age at marriage had a positive effect on completed family size but none on desire for additional children; 4) Urban women had more live births, but rural women were more likely to want additional children; 5) Sex preference for boys is intense in Bangladesh. The study concludes that: 1) Economic well-being effects fertility; 2) The more adequate couples consider their income, the more likely they are to want more children; 3) Female education and employment have no effect on either completed family size or desire for more children; 4) There are no clear effects of family planning programs on either; and 5) desire for more children decreases as the number of children, particularly sons, increases. PMID:12281429

  14. A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Boyce, J K; Ravallion, M

    1991-11-01

    Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers. PMID:12285372

  15. Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

    PubMed Central

    Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

    2010-01-01

    We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

  16. An econometric study of the demand for gasoline in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

    SciTech Connect

    Eltony, M.N.

    1994-12-31

    Reliable and accurate estimation of price and income elasticities of demand for gasoline are important ingredients for long-run energy planning and policy formation. The purpose of this study is to develop and estimate a model for gasoline demand for Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Oatar, Saufi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates). The model is capable of producing short-run and long-run price and income elasticities. Since the first oil price hike in 1973, a great deal of attention has been directed toward the demand for gasoline, especially in the industrialized countries. Few studies have been directed toward the demand for gasoline in developing countries. In terms of primary energy consumption, the GCC`s energy needs are met by oil, natural gas, and electricity. Without any doubt, oil is the largest energy source consumed and gasoline is the most important oil product. However, very few studies have been directed toward analyzing GCC energy demand, and yet there has been not attempt to model and estimate GCC gasoline demand. This study attempts to address this gap.

  17. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  18. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  19. Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

    2013-04-01

    Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

  20. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  1. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  2. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  3. Power law distribution in high frequency financial data? An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorova, Lora; Vogt, Bodo

    2011-11-01

    Power law distributions are very common in natural sciences. We analyze high frequency financial data from XETRA and the NYSE using maximum likelihood estimation and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test whether the power law hypothesis holds also for these data. We find that the universality and scale invariance properties of the power law are violated. Furthermore, the returns of Daimler Chrysler and SAP traded simultaneously on both exchanges follow a power law at one exchange, but not at the other. These results raise some questions about the no-arbitrage condition. Finally, we find that an exponential function provides a better fit for the tails of the sample distributions than a power law function.

  4. An econometric study of industrial water demands in British Columbia, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renzetti, Steven

    1988-10-01

    Despite the importance of water use by the industrial sector, little economic research has been conducted to study the nature of industrial water demands. This paper uses a relatively simple model of input demands to test whether industrial water use is sensitive to changes to input prices or the level of production. Demands for four aspects of industrial water use (intake, treatment prior to use, recirculation, and treatment prior to discharge) are estimated as a system of simultaneous equations. The data set is a 1981 cross section of firm level observations on water use and expenditure. Empirical results are reported for four manufacturing subgroups: petrochemicals, heavy industry, forest industry, and light industry. Intake price elasticities range from -0.12 to -0.54 and intake elasticities with respect to the level of output range from 0.76 to 1.90. The cross price elasticity between intake and recirculation is positive for all subgroups (indicating substitutability) and ranges from 0.14 to 0.26.

  5. Optimal Allocation of Resources in Urban Education: An Econometric Approach. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parti, Michael; Adelman, Irma

    This study identifies the policy variables that are effective in increasing student verbal achievement in urban grammar schools and high schools, and estimates the impact of these variables upon verbal achievement, expected years of education completed by a typical student, and expected lifetime earnings of a typical student. A theoretical model…

  6. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China - An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. PMID:26552518

  7. Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

    PubMed Central

    Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

    2015-01-01

    This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

  8. ECONOMIC MODELLING OF WATER SUPPLY: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF THE MULTIPRODUCT FIRM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Research was conducted to develop a comprehensive economic model that could use the neoclassical theory of the multiproduct firm to analyze the production structure of water supply. The project attempts to meet the need for in-depth analysis of the cost and economic structure of ...

  9. Two-Stage Residual Inclusion Estimation: Addressing Endogeneity in Health Econometric Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Terza, Joseph V.; Basu, Anirban; Rathouz, Paul J.

    2008-01-01

    The paper focuses on two estimation methods that have been widely used to address endogeneity in empirical research in health economics and health services research B two-stage predictor substitution (2SPS) and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI). 2SPS is the rote extension (to nonlinear models) of the popular linear two-stage least squares estimator. The 2SRI estimator is similar except that in the second stage regression, the endogenous variables are not replaced by first-stage predictors. Instead, first-stage residuals are included as additional regressors. In a generic parametric framework, we show that 2SRI is consistent and 2SPS is not. Results from a simulation study and an illustrative example also recommend against 2SPS and favor 2SRI. Our findings are important given that there are many prominent examples of the application of inconsistent 2SPS in the recent literature. This study can be used as a guide by future researchers in health economics who are confronted with endogeneity in their empirical work. PMID:18192044

  10. Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhibiao

    2011-06-01

    We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

  11. An econometric analysis of the effects of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain.

    PubMed

    Castillo-Manzano, José I; Castro-Nuño, Mercedes; Pedregal, Diego J

    2010-07-01

    This article seeks to quantify the effects of the penalty points system driver's license during the 18-month period following its coming into force. This is achieved by means of univariate and multivariate unobserved component models set up in a state space framework estimated using maximum likelihood. A detailed intervention analysis is carried out in order to test for the effects and their duration of the introduction of the penalty points system driver's license in Spain. Other variables, mainly indicators of the level of economic activity in Spain, are also considered. Among the main effects, we can mention an average reduction of almost 12.6% in the number of deaths in highway accidents. It would take at least 2 years for that effect to disappear. For the rest of the safety indicator variables (vehicle occupants injured in highway accidents and vehicle occupants injured in accidents built-up areas) the effects disappeared 1 year after the law coming into force. PMID:20441847

  12. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  13. Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

    PubMed

    Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

    1996-04-15

    We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits. PMID:8740574

  14. An econometric analysis of the fertility and labor supply of unmarried women.

    PubMed

    Lehrer, E; Nerlove, M

    1982-01-01

    This article emphasizes the importance of dividing the life cycle into various stages for the analysis of female labor supply and fertility. It confirms the need for a multiperiod model for the case of unmarried women as well. The relationship between fertility and female employment varies across the life cycle stages; the pattern for postmarried women is similar to that of married women, but a completely different picture emerges for single women. It is also found that the impact of some exogenous variables on the labor supply of postmarried mothers changes over the life cycle, in the same direction as for married mothers. For the group of widowed, divorced, and separated women, the impact of female education on labor supply is much larger in the interval between marriage and 1st birth than in the subsequent stages. Also, although the former husband's income has no influence on the woman's market activity prior to the birth of the 1st child, it has a marked negative effect in the child rearing period. In the post child rearing stage, a variable that controls for other income sources, including alimony and child support, exerts a strong negative influence on female employment. Some differences in the fertility and labor supply behavior of married and unmarried women include: 1) the absence of husbands and their incomes in the case of unmarried women implies that such women face a relatively strong economic pressure to enter the labor market so that greater participation rates in the child rearing and post-child rearing stages occur; 2) whereas unmarried mothers are typically the sole earners in their households, they often qualify to receive other income such as welfare payments; 3) the labor supply of unmarried mothers is significantly affected by regional variations in the level of benefits; and 4) the family size of unmarried mothers is insensitive to being Catholic and having education. PMID:12264902

  15. Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

    2013-01-01

    Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

  16. The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mushrush, Christopher E.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

  17. Econometric analyses of national health expenditures: can positive economics help to answer normative questions?

    PubMed

    McGuire, A; Parkin, D; Hughes, D; Gerard, K

    1993-07-01

    The size of national health care expenditure is an important research and policy issue. This paper reviews theoretical and empirical analyses of an implied optimal size for a health sector. Various economic theories are explicitly or implicitly invoked, but none is fully satisfactory. Theory provides, at best, a loose justification for empirical specifications of health sector behaviour. Nevertheless, this has a large and growing empirical research industry. The complexity of the issues provides an excuse for reliance on empirical analyses using ad hoc models. The paper analyses aggregate time-series data, using the cointegration approach, on health, health care expenditures and national income. Only one national model met both statistical criteria and showed a significant relationship: between potential life years lost and health care expenditure in the UK. The case for any general relationships remains unproven. There is no objective scientific method to determine optimal health expenditure, nor should we expect one. However, positive analyses can help with normative questions. A better understanding of health expenditure determination would arise from better specification of the relationships, perhaps by analysis at a lower level of aggregation. PMID:8261033

  18. Landholding, rural fertility and internal migration in developing countries: econometric evidence from cross-national data.

    PubMed

    Bilsborrow, R E; Winegarden, C R

    1985-01-01

    This article examines the relationship between rural fertility and rural-urban migration and land holding patterns, using data for 26 developing countries. A 2-equation stochastic model is developed with variables for the rural total fertility rate, the average annual rate of rural-urban migration, the gross domestic product per agricultural worker, the small holder index, the concentration index, the land ownership index, agricultural density, the literacy rate, and life expectancy at birth. Regression results for the rural fertility and migration equations show that the coefficient for lagged migration is positive, as expected. The lack of an effect of literacy is surprising, and may indicate that urban-rural differentials in literacy rates vary widely across countries. The positive coefficient for rural income provides evidence of a positive income effect on fertility in rural areas. The 3 land holding variables receive strong statistical support. The urbanization variable is very powerful; studies that do not take this into account may be seriously biased. The smallholding variable is significant and positive, but the diffusion of land ownership raises fertility and rural-urban migration rates. The reduced form equation highlights both opportunities and obstacles. The statistical results provide strong support for the major hypotheses of the effects of land holding patterns on rural fertility and rural-urban migration: higher fertility is positively related to higher rates of out-migration. Higher out-migration in the previous decade means higher subsequent fertility. PMID:12314045

  19. Healthcare Costs Associated with an Adequate Intake of Sugars, Salt and Saturated Fat in Germany: A Health Econometrical Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Meier, Toni; Senftleben, Karolin; Deumelandt, Peter; Christen, Olaf; Riedel, Katja; Langer, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent not only the major driver for quality-restricted and lost life years; NCDs and their related medical treatment costs also pose a substantial economic burden on healthcare and intra-generational tax distribution systems. The main objective of this study was therefore to quantify the economic burden of unbalanced nutrition in Germany—in particular the effects of an excessive consumption of fat, salt and sugar—and to examine different reduction scenarios on this basis. In this study, the avoidable direct cost savings in the German healthcare system attributable to an adequate intake of saturated fatty acids (SFA), salt and sugar (mono- & disaccharides, MDS) were calculated. To this end, disease-specific healthcare cost data from the official Federal Health Monitoring for the years 2002–2008 and disease-related risk factors, obtained by thoroughly searching the literature, were used. A total of 22 clinical endpoints with 48 risk-outcome pairs were considered. Direct healthcare costs attributable to an unbalanced intake of fat, salt and sugar are calculated to be 16.8 billion EUR (CI95%: 6.3–24.1 billion EUR) in the year 2008, which represents 7% (CI95% 2%-10%) of the total treatment costs in Germany (254 billion EUR). This is equal to 205 EUR per person annually. The excessive consumption of sugar poses the highest burden, at 8.6 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.0–12.1); salt ranks 2nd at 5.3 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.2–7.3) and saturated fat ranks 3rd at 2.9 billion EUR (CI95%: 32 million—4.7 billion). Predicted direct healthcare cost savings by means of a balanced intake of sugars, salt and saturated fat are substantial. However, as this study solely considered direct medical treatment costs regarding an adequate consumption of fat, salt and sugars, the actual societal and economic gains, resulting both from direct and indirect cost savings, may easily exceed 16.8 billion EUR. PMID:26352606

  20. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: The case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Hage, Olle Soederholm, Patrik

    2008-07-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used.

  1. HOW JOINT IS JOINT FOREST PRODUCTION: AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF TIMBER SUPPLY CONDITIONAL ON ENDOGENOUS AMENITY VALUES. (R828785)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

  2. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru

    PubMed Central

    Arima, E. Y.

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200–300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  3. Estimating market penetration of steam, hot water and chilled water in commercial sector using a new econometric model

    SciTech Connect

    Teotia, A.P.S.; Karvelas, D.E.; Daniels, E.J.; Anderson, J.L.

    1993-08-01

    For the first time in the public domain, we have estimated the energy consumption and expenditures of district steam, hot water, and chilled water. Specifically, the combined energy consumption and expenditures of steam, hot water, and chilled water in 1989 were approximately 800 trillion Btu and 7 billion dollars, respectively. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) for estimating market penetration of steam, hot water, and chilled water systems in commercial buildings over the next 20 years. This research sponsored by the US Department of Energy (DOE) used the 1989 Commercial Building Energy Consumption Surveys (CBECS) to provide information on energy consumption and expenditures and related factors in about 6000 buildings. A general linear model to estimated parameters for each of the three equations for steam, hot water, and chilled water demand in the buildings. A logarithmic transformation was made for the dependent variable and most of the explanatory variables. The model provides estimates of building steam, hot water, and chilled water consumption and expenditures between now and the year 2010. This model should be of interest to policymakers, researchers, and market participants involved with planning and implementing community-based energy-conserving and environmentally beneficial energy systems.

  4. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: the case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Hage, Olle; Söderholm, Patrik

    2008-01-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used. PMID:17931849

  5. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  6. Assessing the Use of Econometric Analysis in Estimating the Costs of Meeting State Education Accountability Standards: Lessons from Texas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imazeki, Jennifer; Reschovsky, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    In 2004, over 300 school districts in Texas challenged the constitutionality of the Texas system of school finance. In West Orange-Cove et al. v. Neeley et al., the plaintiffs argued that because most school districts were at or near a state-imposed property tax rate ceiling and because the share of state education funding was declining, most…

  7. Alternative approaches for econometric analysis of panel count data using dynamic latent class models (with application to doctor visits data).

    PubMed

    Hyppolite, Judex; Trivedi, Pravin

    2012-06-01

    Cross-sectional latent class regression models, also known as switching regressions or hidden Markov models, cannot identify transitions between classes that may occur over time. This limitation can potentially be overcome when panel data are available. For such data, we develop a sequence of models that combine features of the static cross-sectional latent class (finite mixture) models with those of hidden Markov models. We model the probability of movement between categories in terms of a Markovian structure, which links the current state with a previous state, where state may refer to the category of an individual. This article presents a suite of mixture models of varying degree of complexity and flexibility for use in a panel count data setting, beginning with a baseline model which is a two-component mixture of Poisson distribution in which latent classes are fixed and permanent. Sequentially, we extend this framework (i) to allow the mixing proportions to be smoothly varying continuous functions of time-varying covariates, (ii) to add time dependence to the benchmark model by modeling the class-indicator variable as a first-order Markov chain and (iii) to extend item (i) by making it dynamic and introducing covariate dependence in the transition probabilities. We develop and implement estimation algorithms for these models and provide an empirical illustration using 1995-1999 panel data on the number of doctor visits derived from the German Socio-Economic Panel. PMID:22556003

  8. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

  9. A Spatial Probit Econometric Model of Land Change: The Case of Infrastructure Development in Western Amazonia, Peru.

    PubMed

    Arima, E Y

    2016-01-01

    Tropical forests are now at the center stage of climate mitigation policies worldwide given their roles as sources of carbon emissions resulting from deforestation and forest degradation. Although the international community has created mechanisms such as REDD+ to reduce those emissions, developing tropical countries continue to invest in infrastructure development in an effort to spur economic growth. Construction of roads in particular is known to be an important driver of deforestation. This article simulates the impact of road construction on deforestation in Western Amazonia, Peru, and quantifies the amount of carbon emissions associated with projected deforestation. To accomplish this objective, the article adopts a Bayesian probit land change model in which spatial dependencies are defined between regions or groups of pixels instead of between individual pixels, thereby reducing computational requirements. It also compares and contrasts the patterns of deforestation predicted by both spatial and non-spatial probit models. The spatial model replicates complex patterns of deforestation whereas the non-spatial model fails to do so. In terms of policy, both models suggest that road construction will increase deforestation by a modest amount, between 200-300 km2. This translates into aboveground carbon emissions of 1.36 and 1.85 x 106 tons. However, recent introduction of palm oil in the region serves as a cautionary example that the models may be underestimating the impact of roads. PMID:27010739

  10. The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

    PubMed

    Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

    2011-12-01

    The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact. PMID:22439555

  11. A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

    2014-07-01

    We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

  12. Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach

    PubMed Central

    Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Objective During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers’ sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Methods Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers’ income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Results Short-run price elasticity is estimated at −0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530 568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Conclusions Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. PMID:25564137

  13. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. PMID:23774750

  14. A theoretical and econometric analysis of the economic rationale backing the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935: A revisionist history

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schrade, William Ralph

    This dissertation challenges the economic rationale which justified the passage of the Public Utility Holding Company Act. It argues that the public utility holding company was a dynamic organization which overcame regulatory and organizational obstacles preventing consolidation of a fragmented industry. The historical evidence shows the holding company acted as a unique creator of liquidity which lowered the cost of capital for its constituent companies. Its organizational contribution achieved production economies by coordinating production to take advantage of the stochastic nature of demand diversity. These results are supported by the application of cliometrics to the historical record left by the public utility holding company. Two additional contributions of this dissertation are that by studying holding company operations and its historical development, the modern observer gets a better understanding of how this industry was meant to work and it also shows how the private market will seek organizational remedies for imperfect resource markets and institutional impediments.

  15. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

  16. An Econometric Analysis of the Unemployment Insurance System in a Local Urban Labor Market. Final Report for September 1, 1973--September 30, 1974.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marston, Stephen Tilney

    The study derives a model of the unemployment insurance (UI) system and its relationship to the labor market, estimates it with data from the Detroit Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area, and evaluates its potential use to forecast UI benefit amounts, UI insured unemployment, and UI exhaustions. It further uses the model to analyze policy issues…

  17. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  18. Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1974-01-01

    The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

  19. A Non-Econometric Analysis with Algebraic Models to Forecast the Numbers of Newly Hired and Retirement of Public Primary School Teachers in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lung-Hsing, Kuo; Hung-Jen, Yang; Ying-Wen, Lin; Shang-Ming, Su

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "street teachers" issue has caused social concern in Taiwan. This study estimates the retirement of and needs for newly hired and public primary school teachers in 2010 using an algebraic model from the paper by Husssar (1999). This recursive methodology predicts the number of newly hired public primary school teachers due to…

  20. Order from Chaos? The Effects of Early Labor Market Experience on Adult Labor Market Outcomes. Econometrics and Economic Theory Paper No. 9506.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gardecki, Rosella; Neumark, David

    Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NYSY) for 1979-92, an empirical analysis documented and characterized early labor market experiences of men and women in the U.S. economy. It explored the evolution of these labor market experiences over the first 5 years in the labor market and studied the relationships between them and adult labor…

  1. Modelling the Labour Market for Teachers: Some Lessons from the UK.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dolton, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Describes an econometric modeling of the labor market for teachers in an "administered" market setting in which the government partially controls the main determinants of demand and is very influential in setting teachers' wages. Reviews relevant econometric literature and shows market forces' crucial role. Discusses economic policy implications…

  2. Modelling the Labour Market for Teachers: Some Lessons from the UK.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dolton, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Describes an econometric modeling of the labor market for teachers in an "administered" market setting in which the government partially controls the main determinants of demand and is very influential in setting teachers' wages. Reviews relevant econometric literature and shows market forces' crucial role. Discusses economic policy implications…

  3. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  4. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  5. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  6. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  7. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  8. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ...: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and..., survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as...

  9. The impact of regional energy-price differentials on manufacturing employment in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Dye, R.A.

    1988-01-01

    This study is an econometric analysis of the role of industrial energy prices in the location of manufacturing employment in the United States. Historical electricity and natural gas prices are analyzed for the nine US Census divisions. Econometric regression equations are used to show the role of electricity and natural gas prices in the location of output and in labor demand for SIC sectors 22 (textiles), 28 (chemicals), and 35 (nonelectrical machinery) in each Census division. A structural econometric model is built showing the three-fold impact of energy prices on textile employment in the Middle Atlantic division. Energy prices are linked to investment, output, and the demand for labor. Energy prices are shown to have a significant but secondary role in determining the location of manufacturing employment.

  10. Study on improving the method of analyzing the economic incident effects caused by public investment policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Momma, Toshiyuki; Hino, Seiichi; Koike, Atsushi; Nakano, Takeshi; Fujii, Satoshi

    A nationwide micro-econometric model was established to estimate changes in the national gross product based on road-related investment amounts. And by considering the supply-demand balance during inflationary and deflationary times and the price adjustment mechanism, this model was then used to examine issues with the current micro-econometric model in light of the present economic circumstances. The results showed that during deflationary times issuing government bonds is less likely to have a crowding-out effect and public investments tend to be more effective than during inflationary times.

  11. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  12. The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric…

  13. Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

    2011-01-01

    The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

  14. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...—Reporting Systems Material (consisting of library references relating to the Service's statistical cost and revenue reporting systems, and their primary outputs); Category 2—Witness Foundational Material... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  15. 39 CFR 3001.31 - Evidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...—Reporting Systems Material (consisting of library references relating to the Service's statistical cost and revenue reporting systems, and their primary outputs); Category 2—Witness Foundational Material... adjustments, if any, to observed data. (iv) Econometric Studies. (a) A presentation of the economic...

  16. Manipulating Educational Expenditure: Dilemmas for the '70s. Monograph Series/13.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Handa, M. L.

    This document has been extracted from the same author's "Toward a Rational Educational Policy," which is an econometric analysis of the components of educational expenditure in the Ontario educational system. The author outlines some substantial changes in approach to educational policy that will be necessary if desirable educational objectives…

  17. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco: Can the Government Improve Outcomes? World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 264.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others

    This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…

  18. The Determinants of College Student Retention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guerrero, Adam A.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…

  19. Be as Careful of the Company You Keep as of the Books You Read: Peer Effects in Education and on the Labor Market. NBER Working Paper No. 14948

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeGiorgi, Giacomo; Pellizzari, Michele; Redaelli, Silvia

    2009-01-01

    In this paper we investigate whether peers' behavior influences the choice of college major, thus contributing to the mismatch of skills in the labor market. Using a newly constructed dataset, we are able to identify the endogenous effect of peers on such decisions through a novel identification strategy that solves the common econometric problems…

  20. Factors of the Earning Functions and Their Influence on the Intellectual Capital of an Organization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile; Tanasoiu, Ovidiu Emil

    2008-01-01

    This paper tries to consider some earning function as "start point" for the construction of indicators for intellectual capital measure. The analyze combines concepts from Mincer's and Becker theories and intellectual capital definitions currently in use. The correlation, significance and relation between elements are shown using three econometric…

  1. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  2. Spatial-Temporal Models of Insect Growth, Diffusion and Derivative Pricing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Insect derivatives represent an important innovation in specialty crop risk management. An active over-the-counter market in insect derivatives will require a transparent pricing method. The paper develops an econometric model of the spatio-temporal process underlying a particular insect populatio...

  3. The Effects of Factor Prices and Technological Change on the Occupational Demand for Labor: Evidence from Canadian Telecommunications.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denny, Michael; Fuss, Melvyn

    1983-01-01

    This paper investigates the effect of automation on the occupational demand for labor using modern econometric demand theory. The empirical results demonstrate the strong effects of innovative activity in the telecommunications industry. Technical change was capital-using and labor-saving, with the labor-saving impact being felt most severely by…

  4. A Comparison of Alternative Specifications of the College Attendance Equation with an Extension to two-stage Selectivity-Correction Models.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilmer, Michael J.

    2001-01-01

    Estimates a college-attendance equation for a common set of students (from the High School and Beyond Survey) using three popular econometric specifications: the multinomial logit, the ordered probit, and the bivariate probit. Estimated marginal effects do not differ significantly across the three specifications. Choice of specification may not…

  5. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  6. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2010-01-01

    The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

  7. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  8. Parallel processing for large-scale nonlinear control experiments in economics

    SciTech Connect

    Amman, H.M. ); Kendrick, D.A. . Dept. of Economics)

    1991-01-01

    In general, the econometric models relevant for purposes of evaluating economic policy contain a large number of nonlinear equations. Therefore, in applying optimal control techniques, computational difficulties are encountered. This paper presents the most common algorithm for computing nonlinear control problems and investigates the degree to which vector processing and parallel processing can facilitate optimal control experiments.

  9. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  10. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  11. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  12. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  13. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  14. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  15. Energy Conservation for Low-Income Households: The Evaporative Cooler Experience.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ridge, Richard S.

    1988-01-01

    An econometric analysis, using a research design based on the nonequivalent control group (NECG), assessed the effectiveness of a program offering free evaporative coolers to low-income families owning air conditioners. The NECG controls for serious threats to internal validity, except for self-selection. The program successfully reduced energy…

  16. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  17. Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

  18. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the... accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  19. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the... accompanied by the underlying econometric models and the input data sets used; and a volume forecast for...

  20. School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

    2007-01-01

    Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

  1. The Economic Impact of the Louisiana State University System on the Louisiana State Economy. AIR Forum 1980 Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Engler, Sheldon D.; And Others

    An econometric model was developed for use in measuring the impact of the Louisiana State University (LSU) upon the Louisiana economy. Emphasis is placed on measuring the effects of enrollment changes, salary and wage expenditures, and campus construction activity. The results show that, overall, each dollar spent by the LSU System creates another…

  2. Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Buda, Rodolphe

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

  3. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  4. Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Andrew; And Others

    The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

  5. Methods of Forecasting Manpower Requirements with Special Reference to the Province of Ontario.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mehmet, Ozay

    The most generally accepted approaches of quantitatively forecasting manpower requirements by industries and occupations are described and evaluated. The operational steps of each forecasting technique are spelled out fully and illustrations of their use are made for (1) the econometric method, (2) the productivity method, (3) the trend projection…

  6. Predisposition Factors of Career and Technical Education Transfer Students: A Hermeneutic Phenomenology Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hioki, Warren Glen

    2009-01-01

    Various econometric, sociological, and combined research models (e.g., Hossler and Gallagher's preeminent Three-Phase Model on College Choice) provide help in understanding high school students in their decision-making stages and college experience. Many studies that utilize these models on college choice strongly substantiate and perpetuate the…

  7. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we…

  8. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  9. Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

    1982-04-01

    Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

  10. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  11. ECONOMIC AND ENERGY ANALYSES OF REGIONAL WATER POLLUTION CONTROL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Two strategic approaches to water quality control in Oregon's Willamette River are presently being utilized: point source treatment and flow augmentation from reservoirs. Input/Output analysis (I/O) provides an econometric methodology to study direct and indirect energy response ...

  12. Model Study for an Economic Data Program on the Conditions of Arts and Cultural Institutions. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deane, Robert T.; And Others

    The development of econometric models and a data base to predict the responsiveness of arts institutions to changes in the economy is reported. The study focused on models for museums, theaters (profit and non-profit), symphony, ballet, opera, and dance. The report details four objectives of the project: to identify useful databases and studies on…

  13. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  14. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  15. Faith Schools, Social Capital and Academic Attainment: Evidence from TIMSS-R Mathematics Scores in Flemish Secondary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pugh, Geoff; Telhaj, Shqiponje

    2008-01-01

    Social capital theory, recent developments in the theory of identity and a small econometric literature all suggest positive attainment effects from faith schooling. To test this hypothesis, the authors use a unique data set on Flemish secondary school students from the 1999 repeat of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study to…

  16. Historical Estimates, 1960-1970, of Occupational Employment for the State SMSA's and Balance of State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franchak, Stephen J.; And Others

    The document is the report of a research project designed to provide occupational employment projections for the State of Pennsylvania through the development and use of a computer-based system. Section 1 of the report (11 pages) discusses the three projection methods used: two recommended by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one an econometric…

  17. Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boal, William M.

    1990-01-01

    This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

  18. Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in recent past due to frequent detections of nitrogen concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon Rive...

  19. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  20. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  1. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  2. 15-Year Enrollment and WSCH Forecast: California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office 1996 Forecast Using Statewide Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    California Community Colleges, Sacramento. Office of the Chancellor.

    In January 1996, the Chancellor's Office of the California Community Colleges prepared a 15-year forecast of enrollment and weekly student contact hours (WSCH) using an econometric model that analyzes real (i.e., price-adjusted) costs facing students, real operating budget expenditures of colleges, population and unemployment projections, and…

  3. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  4. Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

  5. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  6. The (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-Income Country.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schady, Norbert R.

    This paper analyzes the effects of the 1988-1992 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions taken by school-aged children in urban areas. It discusses the Peruvian setting during this period and describes the data used in the analysis and the econometric specification. Two basic findings were made: (1) there was no…

  7. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we…

  8. Earnings and Individual Variations in Postschool Human Investment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Knapp, Charles B.; Hansen, W. Lee

    1976-01-01

    Examines the effect on earnings of variations among individuals in postschool human investment (namely, in work experience after the completion of schooling). Data from the Johns Hopkins Retrospective Life History Survey are analyzed to make possible a reformulation of Becker and Chiswick's econometric model to allow for additional variations…

  9. The (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-Income Country.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schady, Norbert R.

    This paper analyzes the effects of the 1988-1992 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions taken by school-aged children in urban areas. It discusses the Peruvian setting during this period and describes the data used in the analysis and the econometric specification. Two basic findings were made: (1) there was no…

  10. Predisposition Factors of Career and Technical Education Transfer Students: A Hermeneutic Phenomenology Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hioki, Warren Glen

    2009-01-01

    Various econometric, sociological, and combined research models (e.g., Hossler and Gallagher's preeminent Three-Phase Model on College Choice) provide help in understanding high school students in their decision-making stages and college experience. Many studies that utilize these models on college choice strongly substantiate and perpetuate the…

  11. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  12. INFERRING WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR HOUSING AMENITIES FROM RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY VALUES

    EPA Science Inventory

    The report describes a new model of consumers' choices in housing markets that incorporates three heretofore overlooked market considerations. The new model has been tested econometrically against the standard model. The new model gives estimates of buyers' willingness to pay for...

  13. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  14. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  15. A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Gigi

    2009-01-01

    Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

  16. Education and Nonmetropolitan Income Growth in the South.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Henry, Mark; Barkley, David; Li, Haizhen

    Investigations of the linkages between improved schools and local economic development are rare. This paper considers several models that introduce human capital as a potential source of economic growth in the rural South. Results from various econometric models indicate that across the South, county per capita income growth rates from 1970 to…

  17. Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Jeffery H.

    2003-01-01

    This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

  18. Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

    2001-01-01

    Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

  19. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  20. Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

    2009-01-01

    For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

  1. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  2. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  3. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  4. Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

  5. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    The potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services is addressed in detail in this final research report. Econometric modeling and analyses of economic activity within the health sector were undertaken. An eight equation model of the hospital and physician sectors…

  6. Schools and Labor Market Outcomes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, David L.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Analyzes econometrically the relationship between individual school characteristics and earnings of students entering the labor force directly from high school, using High School and Beyond data. One category of characteristics, school-to-work interventions, is a predictor. Access to labor-market information and substantial work-for-pay experience…

  7. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  8. Key Management Challenges in Smart Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Duren, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Agenda Awarded in February 2011 Team of industry and research organizations Project Objectives Address difficult issues Complexity Diversity of systems Scale Longevity of solution Participate in standards efforts and working groups Develop innovative key management solutions Modeling and simulation ORNL Cyber Security Econometric Enterprise System Demonstrate effectiveness of solution Demonstrate scalability

  9. Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

    2015-01-01

    One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

  10. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  11. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  12. Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

    2007-01-01

    This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

  13. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  14. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  15. The Sources and Uses of Annual Giving at Selective Private Research Universities and Liberal Arts Colleges.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg. R. G.; Smith, C. L.

    2003-01-01

    Econometric analysis uses data from a panel of selected private research universities and liberal-arts colleges that span a 31-year period to provide explanations for differences across institutions in the sources and uses of giving. Finds, for example, that richer institutions devote a larger share of their annual giving to further building their…

  16. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  17. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  18. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  19. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  20. Class-Size Effects on Adolescents' Mental Health and Well-Being in Swedish Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jakobsson, Niklas; Persson, Mattias; Svensson, Mikael

    2013-01-01

    This paper analyzes whether class size has an effect on the prevalence of mental health problems and well-being among adolescents in Swedish schools. We use cross-sectional data collected in year 2008 covering 2755 Swedish adolescents in ninth grade from 40 schools and 159 classes. We utilize different econometric approaches to address potential…

  1. The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeh, Stuart S.

    2009-01-01

    Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…

  2. Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ng, Larson S. W. M.

    2011-01-01

    The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

  3. Modeling EU electricity market competition using the residual supply index

    SciTech Connect

    Swinand, Gregory; Scully, Derek; Ffoulkes, Stuart; Kessler, Brian

    2010-11-15

    An econometric approach to related hourly Residual Supply Index to price-cost margins in the major EU electricity generation markets suggests that market structure, as measured by the RSI, is a significant explanatory factor for markups, even when scarcity and other explanatory variables are included. (author)

  4. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Executive Summary.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    A study that forecast the consequences of the projected growth in the number of practicing U.S. physicians during the 1980s and beyond is summarized. Attention was directed to the potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services. Econometric modeling and analysis of…

  5. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  6. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  7. East-West migration in Europe: can migration theories help estimate the numbers?

    PubMed

    Oberg, S; Wils, A B

    1992-01-01

    "In this article, we discuss the types of scientific knowledge that could be used to estimate migration flows." Theories from the disciplines of economics, geography, geopolitics, sociology, demography, econometrics, and history are reviewed. The authors find that "each field provides a partial explanation of...migration flows." The geographical focus is on Europe. PMID:12286068

  8. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  9. Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

    Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

  10. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  11. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  12. Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

  13. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  14. Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

    PubMed

    Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

    2013-01-01

    Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data. PMID:23920815

  15. Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

    1982-04-01

    Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

  16. WEFA Multiregional Model Project. Volume 1: model design. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Fromm, D.W.; Loxley, C.J.; McCarthy, M.D.

    1981-11-01

    The overall objective of the Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates, Inc., (WEFA) Multiregional Model project is to design a long-term econometric forecasting model for regional economic growth and energy consumption, with particular emphasis on modeling the interdependency between energy prices, economic trends, and electricity and other energy demand. Such a model could be used to perform conditional forecasting and develop scenarios with varying inputs for electricity prices, fossil fuel prices, and national economic policies and trends. The model design - subject to data constraints - is rigorously derived from economic theory. Key features are the extent of the bottom-up (region to nation) forecasting provided for; the incorporation of the full complexity of interregional linkages; interindustry relationships; and the role of transportation costs, taxes, and other factor costs (including energy) in affecting regional competitiveness. The regional model presented here determines regional investment, cost of capital and capital stocks, output and employment, wages, unemployment, population, electricity demand, and other energy demand.

  17. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  18. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  19. Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1978-01-01

    A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

  20. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  1. A dynamic model of industrial energy demand in Kenya

    SciTech Connect

    Haji, S.H.H.

    1994-12-31

    This paper analyses the effects of input price movements, technology changes, capacity utilization and dynamic mechanisms on energy demand structures in the Kenyan industry. This is done with the help of a variant of the second generation dynamic factor demand (econometric) model. This interrelated disequilibrium dynamic input demand econometric model is based on a long-term cost function representing production function possibilities and takes into account the asymmetry between variable inputs (electricity, other-fuels and Tabour) and quasi-fixed input (capital) by imposing restrictions on the adjustment process. Variations in capacity utilization and slow substitution process invoked by the relative input price movement justifies the nature of input demand disequilibrium. The model is estimated on two ISIS digit Kenyan industry time series data (1961 - 1988) using the Iterative Zellner generalized least square method. 31 refs., 8 tabs.

  2. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  3. Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

  4. Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  5. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  6. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  7. How many kilowatts are in a negawatt? Verifying ex post estimates of utility conservation impacts at the regional level

    SciTech Connect

    Parfomak, P.W.; Lave, L.B.

    1996-12-31

    Restructuring of utilities raises questions about the future of conservation programs. One of the greatest obstacles has been the persistent uncertainity among utility planners regarding true resource effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservation relative to conventional generation. The authors use econometric techniques to examine the aggregate commercial and industrial conservation impacts reported. The paper shows that utility conservation programs have been effective in reducing electric loads and that utilities have reported accurately. 44 refs., 3 tabs.

  8. Dynamics of Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  9. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  10. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.

  11. India's iron and steel industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1998-10-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's iron and steel sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both growth accounting and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that over the observed period from 1973--74 to 1993--94 productivity declined by 1.71{percent} as indicated by the Translog index. Calculations of the Kendrick and Solow indices support this finding. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's iron and steel sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protective policy regarding price and distribution of iron and steel as well as by large inefficiencies in public sector integrated steel plants. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? Most likely they will not. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with the liberalization of the iron and steel sector, the industry is rapidly moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use in existing and future plants.

  12. Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

    2010-06-01

    Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

  13. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  14. Frontier efficiency measurement in health care: a review of empirical techniques and selected applications.

    PubMed

    Worthington, Andrew C

    2004-06-01

    Health care institutions worldwide are increasingly the subject of analyses aimed at defining, measuring, and improving organizational efficiency. However, despite the importance of efficiency measurement in health care services, it is only relatively recently that the more advanced econometric and mathematical programming frontier techniques have been applied to hospitals, nursing homes, health management organizations, and physician practices, among others. This article provides a synoptic survey of the comparatively few empirical analyses of frontier efficiency measurement in health care services. Both the measurement of efficiency in a range of health care services and the posited determinants of health care efficiency are examined. PMID:15155049

  15. Volumetric Pricing of Agricultural Water Supplies: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, Ronald C.; Perry, Gregory M.

    1985-07-01

    Models of water consumption by rice producers are conceptualized and then estimated using cross-sectional time series data obtained from 16 Texas canal operators for the years 1977-1982. Two alternative econometric models demonstrate that both volumetric and flat rate water charges are strongly and inversely related to agricultural water consumption. Nonprice conservation incentives accompanying flat rates are hypothesized to explain the negative correlation of flat rate charges and water consumption. Application of these results suggests that water supply organizations in the sample population converting to volumetric pricing will generally reduce water consumption.

  16. Pre- and postnatal drivers of childhood intelligence: evidence from Singapore.

    PubMed

    Pacheco, Gail; Hedges, Mary; Schilling, Chris; Morton, Susan

    2013-01-01

    This study seeks to investigate what influences intelligence in early childhood. The Singapore Cohort Study of the Risk Factors of Myopia (SCORM) is used to assess determinants of childhood IQ and changes in IQ. This longitudinal data set, collected in 1999, includes a wealth of demographic, socioeconomic and prenatal characteristics. The richness of the data allows various econometric approaches to be employed, including the use of ordered and multinomial logit analysis. Mother's education is found to be a consistent and key determinant of childhood IQ. Father's education and school quality are found to be key drivers for increasing IQ levels above the average sample movement. PMID:22716898

  17. Well-being losses due to care-giving???

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G.; Hall, Jane

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888

  18. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  19. Balancing the present and the future: a study of contraceptive use in Calcutta's slums.

    PubMed

    Dutta, Mousumi; Husain, Zakir

    2011-01-01

    Calcutta, an important metropolitan city in eastern India, has a large slum population. Despite the poor economic status of this population, analysis of DHS data (2004-2005) reveals that contraceptive use levels in Calcutta slums is quite high, with a large proportion preferring terminal methods. Econometric analysis reveals that cultural factors are important determinants of contraceptive use. Results also indicate that respondents attempt to balance current needs (by trying to limit family size through use of contraceptives) but also try to provide for the future (by having at least one son before adopting family planning methods). PMID:21677526

  20. What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

  1. Barriers to energy-efficiency in electricity generation in India

    SciTech Connect

    Khanna, M. . Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics); Zilberman, D. . Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics)

    1999-01-01

    This paper explores the sources and magnitude of energy-inefficiency in the electricity generating sector in India and its implications for carbon emissions from this sector. An econometric methodology is developed to disaggregate and quantify the contribution of technical and institutional factors to this inefficiency. The analysis demonstrates the potential for institutional and economic policy reforms that provide incentives for the adoption of efficiency-enhancing production practices to reduce carbon emissions while increasing net electricity generation, even with the existing capital equipment.

  2. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on heat rates for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W. ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights the heat rate results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the U.S. population of coal-fired steam generating units. In the study, techno- economic relationships between age and equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), equivalent availability factor (EAF), and heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964-1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant; they are documented elsewhere.

  3. Why is the performance of electric generating units declining

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.

    1983-06-01

    In the general context of declining performance in the electric utility industry, the NERA developed two econometric models of generating unit performance: one to explain annual unit equivalent availability, the other to explain annual unit heat rate. The models try to answer the question, to what extent can performance offset high fuel prices and forestall the need for new capacity. The moving averages of the differences between the earned return for each utility is calculated. The performance of a generating unit is found to decline when earnings are squeezed. This analysis shows that a performance standard should recognize the major differences among generating units.

  4. Scientific and economic potential of the SEASAT Program. [satellite system for global oceanographic data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccandless, S. W.; Miller, B. P.

    1974-01-01

    The SEASAT satellite system is planned as a user-oriented system for timely monitoring of global ocean dynamics and mapping the global ocean geoid. The satellite instrumentation and modular concept are discussed. Operational data capabilities will include oceanographic data services, direct satellite read-out to users, and conversational retrieval and analysis of stored data. A case-study technique, generalized through physical and econometric modeling, indicates potential economic benefit from SEASAT to users in the following areas: ship routing, iceberg reconnaissance, arctic operations, Alaska pipeline ship link, and off-shore oil production.

  5. Health spending projections for 2001-2011: the latest outlook.

    PubMed

    Heffler, Stephen; Smith, Sheila; Won, Greg; Clemens, M Kent; Keehan, Sean; Zezza, Mark

    2002-01-01

    This paper describes the most recent ten-year projections of national health spending. projections, produced annually, are based on econometric and actuarial models of the health sector. Our current outlook includes a sharper near-term increase in the health sector's share of gross domestic product (GDP), which reaches 16.8 percent by 2010, compared with the 15.9 percent projected last year. This difference largely reflects legislation-driven increases in public spending growth combined with a weaker economic outlook. Recent acceleration in private-sector health spending is projected to peak in 2002. PMID:11900160

  6. The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China

    SciTech Connect

    Poon, J.P.H.; Casas, I.; He, C.F.

    2006-09-15

    A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide.

  7. DDT (2,2,bis(p-chlorophenyl) 1,1,1-trichloroethane) induced structural changes in adrenal glands of rats

    SciTech Connect

    Chowdhury, A.R.; Gautam, A.K.; Venkatakrishna-Bhatt, H. )

    1990-08-01

    Oldest chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticide, DDT was used widely to control pest and vector borne diseases in developing countries. Malaria and vector borne diseases can be econometrically controlled by DDT. Chronic and acute exposures to DDT result in systemic disorders in human as well as this confirmed in animals. Experimental study revealed that DDT caused the structural and functional changes in thyroid and reproductive system. The effects of DDT on adrenal glands are not well documented. Therefore this experimental investigation was undertaken to evaluate the histomorphological changes of adrenal gland after the treatment with DDT in rats.

  8. An economic approach to abortion demand.

    PubMed

    Rothstein, D S

    1992-01-01

    "This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." PMID:12345163

  9. Social and spatial processes associated with childhood diarrheal disease in Matlab, Bangladesh

    PubMed Central

    Perez-Heydrich, Carolina; Furgurson, Jill M.; Giebultowicz, Sophia; Winston, Jennifer J.; Yunus, Mohammad; Streatfield, Peter Kim; Emch, Michael

    2012-01-01

    We develop novel methods for conceptualizing geographic space and social networks to evaluate their respective and combined contributions to childhood diarrheal incidence. After defining maternal networks according to direct familial linkages between females, and road networks using satellite imagery of the study area, we use a spatial econometrics model to evaluate the significance of correlation terms relating childhood diarrheal incidence to the incidence observed within respective networks. Disease was significantly clustered within road networks across time, but only inconsistently correlated within maternal networks. These methods could be widely applied to systems in which both social and spatial processes jointly influence health outcomes. PMID:23178328

  10. Migration plans and hours of work in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Gillin, E D; Sumner, D A

    1985-01-01

    "This article describes characteristics of prospective migrants in the Malaysian Family Life Survey and investigates how planning to move affects hours of work. [The authors] use ideas about intertemporal substitution...to discuss the response to temporary and permanent wage expectations on the part of potential migrants. [An] econometric section presents reduced-form estimates for wage rates and planned migration equations and two-stage least squares estimates for hours of work. Men currently planning a move were found to work fewer hours. Those originally planning only a temporary stay at their current location work more hours." PMID:12280256

  11. Law of the Sea treaty and the regulation of nodule exploitation

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, F.G.

    1980-01-01

    The production of nonferrous metals from manganese nodules from the ocean floor has potential impact on the prices of cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese and on the earnings of land-based producers. These effects must be considered in the Law of the Sea negotiations. Econometric models are used to evaluate the impact of nodule production on the less-developed countries (LDC) producers. It was found that the price impact is greater for cobalt, whose nodule production is very large relative to conventional output, but that the impact on LDC earnings is greater for copper and nickel. 13 references, 5 tables.

  12. Chapter12

    Cancer.gov

    The demands for tobacco products, however, differ from those for most other products because of the addictive drug they contain—i.e., nicotine. For years, the conventional wisdom was that addictive consumption was an irrational behavior that did not follow the basic laws of economics, includ-ing that of the downward sloping demand curve. However, a variety of econometric studies conducted over the past several decades clearly indicate that cigarette smoking and other tobacco use are not exceptions to the principles of economics.

  13. Genetic markers as instrumental variables

    PubMed Central

    von Hinke, Stephanie; Davey Smith, George; Lawlor, Debbie A.; Propper, Carol; Windmeijer, Frank

    2016-01-01

    The use of genetic markers as instrumental variables (IV) is receiving increasing attention from economists, statisticians, epidemiologists and social scientists. Although IV is commonly used in economics, the appropriate conditions for the use of genetic variants as instruments have not been well defined. The increasing availability of biomedical data, however, makes understanding of these conditions crucial to the successful use of genotypes as instruments. We combine the econometric IV literature with that from genetic epidemiology, and discuss the biological conditions and IV assumptions within the statistical potential outcomes framework. We review this in the context of two illustrative applications. PMID:26614692

  14. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  15. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H.; Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W.

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  16. India's aluminum industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's aluminum sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. An analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector declined slightly by 0.2%. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's aluminum sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been labor saving. The decline in productivity was mainly driven by a decline in the 1970s when capacity utilization was low and the energy crisis hit India and the world. From the early 1980s on productivity recuperated. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian aluminum sector has high potential to move towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. Substantial energy savings and carbon reduction options exist.

  17. NGV fleet fueling station business plan: A public, private and utility partnership to identify economical business options for implementation of CNG fueling infrastructure

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-07-01

    The City of Long Beach recently incorporated an additional 61 natural gas vehicles (NGV) within its own fleet, bringing the City`s current NGV fleet to 171 NGVs. During January 1992, the City opened its first public access compressed natural gas (CNG) fueling station (86 CFM). This action served as the City`s first step toward developing the required CNG infrastructure to accommodate its growing NGV fleet, as well as those of participating commercial and private fleet owners. The City of Long Beach is committed to promoting NGVs within its own fleet, as well as encouraging NGV use by commercial and private fleet owners and resolving market development barriers. The NGV Business Plan provides recommendations for priority locations, station size and design, capital investment, partnership and pricing options. The NGV Business Plan also includes an econometric model to calculate CNG infrastructure cost recovery options, based on CNG market research within the City of Long Beach and Southern California area. Furthermore, the NGV Business Plan provides the City with a guide regarding CNG infrastructure investment, partnerships and private fueling programs. Although the NGV Business Plan was developed to address the prevailing CNG-related issues affecting the City of Long Beach, the methodology used within the NGV Business Plan and, more significantly, the accompanying econometric model will assist local governments, nation-wide, in the successful implementation of similar CNG infrastructures required for effective market penetration of NGVs.

  18. The regional costs and benefits of acid rain control

    SciTech Connect

    Berkman, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    Congress recently enacted acid rain control legislation as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments following a decade-long debate among disparate regional interests. Although Congress succeeded in drafting a law acceptable to all regions, the regional costs and benefits of the legislation remain uncertain. The research presented here attempts to estimate the regional costs and benefits and the economic impacts of acid rain controls. These estimates are made using a modeling system composed of econometric, linear programming and input-output models. The econometric and linear programming components describe markets for electricity and coal. The outputs of these components including capital investment, electricity demand, and coal production are taken as exogenous inputs by a multiregional input-output model. The input-output model produces estimates of changes in final demand, gross output, and employment. The utility linear programming model also predicts sulfur dioxide emissions (an acid-rain precursor). According to model simulations, the costs of acid rain control exceed the benefits for many regions including several regions customarily thought to be the major beneficiaries of acid rain control such as New England.

  19. Decreasing inequality under Latin America's "social democratic" and "populist" governments: is the difference real?

    PubMed

    Montecino, Juan Antonio

    2012-01-01

    The article addresses the claim that the "left populist" governments of Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Venezuela failed to effectively reduce inequality in the 2000s. The author examines the econometric evidence presented by McLeod and Lustig (2011) that the "social democratic" governments of Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay were more successful and shows that McLeod and Lustig's results are highly sensitive to their use of data from the Socioeconomic Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC). Conducting the same analysis using inequality data from the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) suggests the exactly opposite conclusion. The contrast between the results obtained using SEDLAC and ECLAC data suggests that the choice of inequality data source is not immaterial and that the difference is probably driven by how the two sources handle the underreporting of income in household surveys. The key difference between SEDLAC and ECLAC data is that the latter correct for the underreporting of income while the former do not. Absent reasonable criteria for choosing between the two datasets, the author suggests that any econometric results pertaining to Latin American income inequality should prove robust to both data sources. PMID:22611654

  20. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  1. Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

  2. Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

    PubMed

    Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2016-02-01

    This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:25504934

  3. Energy risk in the arbitrage pricing model: an empirical and theoretical study

    SciTech Connect

    Bremer, M.A.

    1986-01-01

    This dissertation empirically explores the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the context of energy risk for securities over the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Starting from a general multifactor pricing model, the paper develops a two factor model based on a market-like factor and an energy factor. This model is then tested on portfolios of securities grouped according to industrial classification using several econometric techniques designed to overcome some of the more serious estimation problems common to these models. The paper concludes that energy risk is priced in the 1970s and possibly even in the 1960s. Energy risk is found to be priced in the sense that investors who hold assets subjected to energy risk are paid for this risk. The classic version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model which posits the market as the single priced factor is rejected in favor of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or multi-beta versions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces some original econometric methodology to carry out empirical tests.

  4. Macroeconomic effects of accelerated implementation of renewable energy technologies in the US

    SciTech Connect

    Marcuse, W; Groncki, P J

    1980-02-01

    The original formulation of the Brookhaven energy system models was directed toward technology assessment for new and competing energy technologies. The Hudson-Jorgenson econometric model was originally formulated to identify the economic impacts of energy futures where energy-use projections departed markedly from historical trends. The two models were married so that the feedback effects of energy and nonenergy demand levels and nonenergy prices generated by the economic model could be reflected in the technology and fuel-mix-selection solutions of the energy model. In turn, the engineering-based energy costs, energy prices, and capital requirements for energy systems characterized in the energy model are used to override the econometric estimates based on historical data in the economic model. Recently, the coupled models have been used to address questions concerning the macroeconomic impacts of accelerating the implementation of renewable energy technologies in the United States. Of particular interest were the scenarios where (1) renewables were included which cost more than conventional alternatives now and in the future, and (2) some renewables that are initially more costly are characterized by a learning curve so that in time their costs come to equal conventional alternatives. A further analysis was done for the first case (renewables always more expensive) under conditions where (1) the incremental costs were paid by the government through deficit financing, and (2) the incremental costs were paid by consumers. This paper presents the formulation of the analysis using the combined energy system - economic model and the results of the study.

  5. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    PubMed

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts. PMID:19732940

  6. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country. PMID:24910313

  7. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steward, David R.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Yang, Xiaoying; Bulatewicz, Tom; Herrera-Rodriguez, Mauricio; Mao, Dazhi; Hendricks, Nathan

    2009-05-01

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater wells and agricultural parcels is employed to couple these models using geographic information science technology and open modeling interface protocols. This approach is used to study the collective action problem of the common pool. Three different policies (existing, regulation, and incentive based) are studied in the semiarid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in the central United States. Results show that while regulation using the prior appropriation doctrine and incentives using a water buy-back program may each achieve the same level of water savings across the study region, each policy has a different impact on spatial patterns of groundwater declines and farm level economic activity. This represents the first time that groundwater and econometric models of irrigated agriculture have been integrated at the well-parcel level and provides methods for scientific investigation of this coupled natural-human system. Results are useful for science to inform decision making and public policy debate.

  8. Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

    PubMed

    Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-30

    Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method. PMID:24570579

  9. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. PMID:26119330

  10. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  11. What roles do contemporaneous and cumulative incomes play in the income-child health gradient for young children? Evidence from an Australian panel.

    PubMed

    Khanam, Rasheda; Nghiem, Hong Son; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2014-08-01

    The literature to date shows that children from poorer households tend to have worse health than their peers, and the gap between them grows with age. We investigate whether and how health shocks (as measured by the onset of chronic conditions) contribute to the income-child health gradient and whether the contemporaneous or cumulative effects of income play important mitigating roles. We exploit a rich panel dataset with three panel waves called the Longitudinal Study of Australian children. Given the availability of three waves of data, we are able to apply a range of econometric techniques (e.g. fixed and random effects) to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The paper makes several contributions to the extant literature. First, it shows that an apparent income gradient becomes relatively attenuated in our dataset when the cumulative and contemporaneous effects of household income are distinguished econometrically. Second, it demonstrates that the income-child health gradient becomes statistically insignificant when controlling for parental health and health-related behaviours or unobserved heterogeneity. PMID:23780648

  12. India's cement industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's cement sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector increased by 0.8% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's cement sector has been biased towards the use of energy and capital, while it has been material and labor saving. The increase in productivity was mainly driven by a period of progress between 1983 and 1991 following partial decontrol of the cement sector in 1982. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian cement sector is moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. However, substantial further energy savings and carbon reduction potentials still exist.

  13. Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

    2009-02-01

    This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

  14. India's Fertilizer Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, K.; Sathaye, J.

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's fertilizer sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Our analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the fertilizer sector increased by 2.3% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's fertilizer sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been capital and labor saving. The increase in productivity took place during the era of total control when a retention price system and distribution control was in effect. With liberalization of the fertilizer sector and reduction of subsidies productivity declined substantially since the early 1990s. Industrial policies and fiscal incentives still play a major role in the Indian fertilizer sect or. As substantial energy savings and carbon reduction potential exists, energy policies can help overcome barriers to the adoption of these measures in giving proper incentives and correcting distorted prices.

  15. Competitive electricity markets, prices and generator entry and exit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ethier, Robert George

    The electric power industry in the United States is quickly being deregulated and restructured. In the past, new electric generation capacity was added by regulated utilities to meet forecasted demand levels and maintain reserve margins. With competitive wholesale generation, investment will be the responsibility of independent private investors. Electricity prices will assume the coordinating function which has until recently been the responsibility of regulatory agencies. Competitive prices will provide the entry and exit signals for generators in the future. Competitive electricity markets have a distinctive price formation process, and thus require a specialized price model. A mean-reverting price process with stochastic jumps is proposed as an appropriate long-run price process for annual electricity prices. This price process is used to develop an analytic real options model for private investment decisions. The required recursive infinite series solutions have not been widely used for real option models. Entry thresholds and asset values for competitive wholesale electricity markets, and exit decisions for plants with significant retirement costs (i.e. nuclear power plants), are examined. The proposed model results in significantly lower trigger prices for both entry and exit decisions, and higher asset values, when compared with other standard models. The model is used to show that the incentives for retiring a nuclear plant are very sensitive to the treatment of decommissioning costs (e.g. if plant owners do not face full decommissioning costs, retirement decisions may be economically premature.) An econometric model of short-run price behavior is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood using daily electricity prices from markets in the USA and Australia. The model specifies two mean reverting price processes with stochastic Markov switching between the regimes, which allows discontinuous jumps in electricity prices. Econometric tests show that a two regime model is preferred to a single regime model, providing an explanation for the observed price spikes in electricity markets. The Markov specification is also supported by econometric tests, suggesting that price spikes persist. The two-regime model produces option values that differ markedly from those generated by a conventional mean reverting model with no stochastic jumps.

  16. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence. PMID:22645830

  17. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    SciTech Connect

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  18. Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: some further considerations.

    PubMed

    van Baal, Pieter H; Wong, Albert

    2012-12-01

    Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981-2007. Forecasts for the years 2008-2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models' forecasts of HCE for the 2008-2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE. PMID:23000700

  19. The relation between global migration and trade networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sgrignoli, Paolo; Metulini, Rodolfo; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

  20. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  1. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W. Philip T.; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15–49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  2. Estimating the Economic Value of Ice Climbing in Hyalite Canyon: An Application of Travel Cost Count Data Models that Account for Excess Zeros*

    PubMed Central

    Anderson, D. Mark

    2009-01-01

    Recently, the sport of ice climbing has seen a drastic increase in popularity. This paper uses the travel cost method to estimate the demand for ice climbing in Hyalite Canyon, Montana, one of the premier ice climbing venues in North America. Access to Hyalite and other ice climbing destinations have been put at risk due to liability issues, public land management agendas, and winter road conditions. To this point, there has been no analysis on the economic benefits of ice climbing. In addition to the novel outdoor recreation application, this study applies econometric methods designed to deal with “excess zeros” in the data. Depending upon model specification, per person per trip values are estimated to be in the range of $76 to $135. PMID:20044202

  3. On the economic performance of the waste sector. A literature review.

    PubMed

    Simões, Pedro; Marques, Rui Cunha

    2012-09-15

    In a context of increasing international concern about public cost savings, research interest in the waste sector has gradually emerged. The literature on waste cost and inefficiency, particularly the use of parametric and non-parametric methods has increased exponentially in the last years. This paper reviews the developments, themes, objectives, concerns and characteristics of this kind of research, by reviewing a comprehensive database consisting of more than 100 relevant papers on economic performance of the waste services were published since 1965. Based on the econometric and mathematical programming methods (cost and product ion frontiers) used so far, the paper identifies characteristics of the waste research community (such as the authors' case-studies, aims of research, methods adopted, among others). Finally, it also identifies the main targets in this research field, such as market structure, ownership, incentives (through regulation and legal mechanism) and performance assessment. PMID:22562010

  4. Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, John

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

  5. Differential effects of negative publicity on beef consumption according to household characteristics in South Korea.

    TOXLINE Toxicology Bibliographic Information

    Youn H; Lim BI; Jin HJ

    2012-07-01

    This paper examines how South Korean households responded to an unprecedented boycott campaign against US beef from spring to summer of 2008, and investigates differential responses in relation to households' characteristics. It was found that beef consumption reduced by 4.8% immediately after the so-called candle-light demonstration. Instead, pork and chicken consumption increased by 17.2% and 16.6%, respectively. This confirms a substitution effect due to the negative publicity concerning US beef. It was also found that the negative publicity effect was transitory and the reactions of consumers were not uniform; they differed depending on their socio-economic characteristics. The econometric model revealed that younger, less-educated, and/or lower-income households were more susceptible to the negative publicity, and reduced their beef consumption more than other households.

  6. Registered nurse turnover and the changing health care system.

    PubMed

    Jones, C B

    1996-01-01

    Changes in health care delivery and cyclic fluctuations in the registered nurse (RN) labor market affect health care costs, access, and quality. This study provides insight into one factor central to these issues, the job-change behavior of RNs. The theory of human capital provides the foundation to guide investigation, and econometric modeling is used to explore relationships among study variables. Model results show clear differences in job change behavior of nurses employed in hospital and nonhospital settings. These differences are a reflection, not only of individual nurse preferences, but also of wages, working conditions, and opportunities associated with various health care settings. Understanding these relationships is essential to leaders in the nursing profession as they plan for and respond to changes in health care delivery. PMID:8788635

  7. `Been There Done That': Disentangling Option Value Effects from User Heterogeneity When Valuing Natural Resources with a Use Component

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

    2012-11-01

    Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

  8. The Pot Calling the Kettle Black? A Comparison of Measures of Current Tobacco Use

    PubMed Central

    ROSENMAN, ROBERT

    2014-01-01

    Researchers often use the discrepancy between self-reported and biochemically assessed active smoking status to argue that self-reported smoking status is not reliable, ignoring the limitations of biochemically assessed measures and treating it as the gold standard in their comparisons. Here, we employ econometric techniques to compare the accuracy of self-reported and biochemically assessed current tobacco use, taking into account measurement errors with both methods. Our approach allows estimating and comparing the sensitivity and specificity of each measure without directly observing true smoking status. The results, robust to several alternative specifications, suggest that there is no clear reason to think that one measure dominates the other in accuracy. PMID:25587199

  9. Junior doctors' preferences for specialty choice.

    PubMed

    Sivey, Peter; Scott, Anthony; Witt, Julia; Joyce, Catherine; Humphreys, John

    2012-12-01

    A number of studies suggest that there is an over-supply of specialists and an under-supply of general practitioners in many developed countries. Previous econometric studies of specialty choice from the US suggest that although income plays a role, other non-pecuniary factors may be important. This paper presents a novel application of a choice experiment to identify the effects of expected future earnings and other attributes on specialty choice. We find the implied marginal wage estimated from our discrete choice model is close to the actual wages of senior specialists, but much higher than those of senior GPs. In a policy simulation we find that increasing GPs' earnings by $50,000, or increasing opportunities for procedural or academic work can increase the number of junior doctors choosing general practice by between 8 and 13 percentage points. The simulation implies an earnings elasticity of specialty choice of 0.95. PMID:22940638

  10. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG&E`s experimental TOU rates. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers` time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer`s demand curves determine the customer`s choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas & Electric Company`s experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility`s revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG&E`s experiment decreased PG&E`s profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  11. Optional time-of-use prices for electricity: Analysis of PG E's experimental TOU rates

    SciTech Connect

    Train, K.; Mehrez, G.

    1992-07-01

    We examine customers' time-of-use (TOU) demand for electricity and their choice between standard and TOU rate schedules. We specify an econometric model in which the customer's demand curves determine the customer's choice of rate schedule. We estimate the model on data from Pacific Gas Electric Company's experiment with optional TOU prices in the residential sector. With the model, we compare the TOU consumption and price elasticities of customers who chose TOU rates with those who chose standard rates. We also estimate the impact of the TOU rates on the utility's revenues and costs. The analysis suggests that the TOU rates offered under PG E's experiment decreased PG E's profits and hence contributed to higher general rate levels. The model can be used, however, to design optional TOU rates that increase profits and lower general rate levels.

  12. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  13. Broader health coverage is good for the nation's health: evidence from country level panel data

    PubMed Central

    Moreno-Serra, Rodrigo; Smith, Peter C

    2015-01-01

    Progress towards universal health coverage involves providing people with access to needed health services without entailing financial hardship and is often advocated on the grounds that it improves population health. The paper offers econometric evidence on the effects of health coverage on mortality outcomes at the national level. We use a large panel data set of countries, examined by using instrumental variable specifications that explicitly allow for potential reverse causality and unobserved country-specific characteristics. We employ various proxies for the coverage level in a health system. Our results indicate that expanded health coverage, particularly through higher levels of publicly funded health spending, results in lower child and adult mortality, with the beneficial effect on child mortality being larger in poorer countries. PMID:25598588

  14. Judging Statistical Models of Individual Decision Making under Risk Using In- and Out-of-Sample Criteria

    PubMed Central

    Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Lusk, Jayson L.

    2014-01-01

    Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

  15. Lévy walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaburdaev, V.; Denisov, S.; Klafter, J.

    2015-04-01

    Random walk is a fundamental concept with applications ranging from quantum physics to econometrics. Remarkably, one specific model of random walks appears to be ubiquitous across many fields as a tool to analyze transport phenomena in which the dispersal process is faster than dictated by Brownian diffusion. The Lévy-walk model combines two key features, the ability to generate anomalously fast diffusion and a finite velocity of a random walker. Recent results in optics, Hamiltonian chaos, cold atom dynamics, biophysics, and behavioral science demonstrate that this particular type of random walk provides significant insight into complex transport phenomena. This review gives a self-consistent introduction to Lévy walks, surveys their existing applications, including latest advances, and outlines further perspectives.

  16. New constraints in absorptive capacity and the optimum rate of petroleum output

    SciTech Connect

    El Mallakh, R

    1980-01-01

    Economic policy in four oil-producing countries is analyzed within a framework that combines a qualitative assessment of the policy-making process with an empirical formulation based on historical and current trends in these countries. The concept of absorptive capacity is used to analyze the optimum rates of petroleum production in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. A control solution with an econometric model is developed which is then modified for alternative development strategies based on analysis of factors influencing production decisions. The study shows the consistencies and inconsistencies between the goals of economic growth, oil production, and exports, and the constraints on economic development. Simulation experiments incorporated a number of the constraints on absorptive capacity. Impact of other constraints such as income distribution and political stability is considered qualitatively. (DLC)

  17. How Sustainable Is Government-Sponsored Desertification Rehabilitation in China? Behavior of Households to Changes in Environmental Policies

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Ning; Zhou, Lihua; Hauger, J. Scott

    2013-01-01

    This paper undertakes a direct, comprehensive assessment of the long-term sustainability of desertification rehabilitation in China under a plausible but worst case scenario where governmental interventions, in the form of payments for environmental services (PES), will cease. The analysis is based on household behavior as well as experimental data. Our econometric results highlight the main obstacles to the sustainability of rehabilitation programs subsequent to cessation of government intervention, including specific shortfalls in households’ preference for a free ride, budget constraints, attitudes, tolerance of and responsibility for desertification, and dissatisfaction with governmental actions. We conclude that desertification rehabilitation is not sustainable in China without continued governmental intervention. The results of this study are intended to support policy makers as they consider future directions for rehabilitation sustainability. PMID:24204849

  18. Does managed care reduce health care expenditure? Evidence from spatial panel data.

    PubMed

    Ehlert, Andree; Oberschachtsiek, Dirk

    2014-09-01

    Similar to, for example, the US, Switzerland or Great Britain the German health care sector has recently undergone a series of reforms towards managed care. These measures are intended to yield both a higher quality of care and cost containment. In our study we ask whether managed care reduces health care expenditure at the market level. We apply a macroeconomic evaluation approach based on a regional panel data set which is as yet unique in the context of managed care. Econometrically, we account for both unobserved heterogeneity and spatial dependence, i.e. regional interrelations in health care. We discuss alternative model specifications and include a range of sensitivity analyses. Our results suggest that in contrast to public perception the share of managed care contracts has a positive impact on pharmaceutical spending, in particular through regional spillover effects. PMID:24691774

  19. Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machado, José A. F.

    2010-05-01

    The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

  20. MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

    2013-10-01

    How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

  1. Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Susmita; Hossain, Md Moqbul; Huq, Mainul; Wheeler, David

    2015-12-01

    This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher. PMID:26152508

  2. Potential niche markets for biodiesel and their effects on agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Raneses, A.R.; Glaser, L.K.; Price, J.M.

    1996-12-31

    This analysis estimates possible biodiesel demand in three niche markets the biodiesel industry has identified as likely candidates for commercialization: federal fleets, mining, and marine/estuary areas. If a 20-percent biodiesel blend becomes a competitive alternative fuel in the coming years, these markets could demand as much as 379 million liters (100 million gallons) of biodiesel. The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture, was used to estimate the impacts of 76, 193, and 379 million liters (20, 50, and 100 million gallons) of soybean-oil-based biodiesel production on the agricultural sector. The results indicate the effect of increased soybean oil demand on the soybean complex (beans, oil, and meal) and U.S. farm income would be small, but livestock producers and consumers could benefit from low meat prices.

  3. Albemarle-Pamlico Sounds revealed and stated preference data.

    PubMed

    Whitehead, John C

    2015-06-01

    In this article we describe the contingent valuation and behavior methods scenario developed in the 1995 Albemarle-Pamlico Sounds Survey. The survey elicits revealed and stated preference recreation behavior data which are used to estimate the value of water quality improvements [4,8]. The survey elicits willingness to pay data which are used to conduct a split-sample scope test [7]. The data are used to jointly estimate revealed and stated preference recreation and willingness to pay data [2,6]. The data has been, and can continue to be, used to investigate econometric specification [3], bid design and other nonmarket valuation issues. The data have been used as illustrations and examples in three books that develop nonmarket valuation methods [1,5,9]. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:26217724

  4. The price of a drink: the potential of alcohol minimum unit pricing as a public health measure in the UK.

    PubMed

    Rice, Peter; Drummond, Colin

    2012-09-01

    The UK has seen a dramatic increase in alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm over the past 30 years. Alcohol taxation has long been considered a key method of controlling alcohol-related harm but a combination of factors has recently led to consideration of methods which affect the price of the cheapest alcohol as a means of improved targeting of alcohol control measures to curb the consumption of the heaviest drinkers. Although much of the evidence in favour of setting a minimum price of a unit of alcohol is based on complex econometric models rather than empirical data, all jurisdictions within the UK now intend to make selling alcohol below a set price illegal, which will provide a naturalistic experiment allowing assessment of the impact of minimum pricing. PMID:22945922

  5. Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation responses into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

    SciTech Connect

    Gillig, Dhazn; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sands, Ronald D.

    2004-07-01

    An econometrically estimated family of response functions is developed for characterizing potential responses to greenhouse gas mitigation policies by the agriculture and forestry sectors. The response functions are estimated based on results of an agricultural/forestry sector model. They provide estimates of sequestration and emission reductions in forestry and agriculture along with levels of sectoral production, prices, welfare, and environmental attributes given a carbon price, levels of demand for agricultural goods, and the energy price. Six alternative mitigation policies representing types of greenhouse gas offsets allowed are considered. Results indicate that the largest quantity of greenhouse gas offset consistently appears with the mitigation policy that pays for all opportunities. Restricting carbon payments (emission tax or sequestration subsidy) only to aff/deforestation or only to agricultural sequestration substantially reduces potential mitigation. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare.

  6. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    SciTech Connect

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

  7. Brand the Pricing: Critical Critique

    PubMed Central

    Kazmi, Syed Hasnain Alam

    2016-01-01

    Brand pricing decision models and established theories in the marketing and econometrics focus typically on assuming the symmetric competing businesses. The empirical generalities are key for strategic marketplace planning. The significance of pricing to customer store and brand choices are always regarded as a widely known truth among marketing scholars and explains consumer’s role responding to their psychological representations of price rather than price itself. Scholars have highlighted simple but earlier unrecognized marketing practices that managers can employ to cultivate the positioning of their prices. Many theoretical researches in promotions have focused its aspects on developing powerful pricing strategies and its impact on consumer decisions, which is might because much of the literature has focused on building and evaluating price promotion strategies. This review experiential will enlighten us on advancements that will also lead us for optimistic cross-brand category level, cross-cultural level and cross-national level influences in pricing strategies. PMID:26962383

  8. Education And Gender Bias in the Sex Ratio At Birth: Evidence From India

    PubMed Central

    ECHÁVARRI, REBECA A.; EZCURRA, ROBERTO

    2010-01-01

    This article investigates the possible existence of a nonlinear link between female disadvantage in natality and education. To this end, we devise a theoretical model based on the key role of social interaction in explaining people’s acquisition of preferences, which justifies the existence of a nonmonotonic relationship between female disadvantage in natality and education. The empirical validity of the proposed model is examined for the case of India, using district-level data. In this context, our econometric analysis pays particular attention to the role of spatial dependence to avoid any potential problems of misspecification. The results confirm that the relationship between the sex ratio at birth and education in India follows an inverted U-shape. This finding is robust to the inclusion of additional explanatory variables in the analysis, and to the choice of the spatial weight matrix used to quantify the spatial interdependence between the sample districts. PMID:20355693

  9. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

  10. ESTIMATION OF FUNCTIONALS OF SPARSE COVARIANCE MATRICES

    PubMed Central

    Fan, Jianqing; Rigollet, Philippe; Wang, Weichen

    2016-01-01

    High-dimensional statistical tests often ignore correlations to gain simplicity and stability leading to null distributions that depend on functionals of correlation matrices such as their Frobenius norm and other ℓr norms. Motivated by the computation of critical values of such tests, we investigate the difficulty of estimation the functionals of sparse correlation matrices. Specifically, we show that simple plug-in procedures based on thresholded estimators of correlation matrices are sparsity-adaptive and minimax optimal over a large class of correlation matrices. Akin to previous results on functional estimation, the minimax rates exhibit an elbow phenomenon. Our results are further illustrated in simulated data as well as an empirical study of data arising in financial econometrics. PMID:26806986

  11. Alcohol marketing and young people's drinking: a review of the research.

    PubMed

    Hastings, Gerard; Anderson, Susan; Cooke, Emma; Gordon, Ross

    2005-09-01

    The influence of alcohol advertising on young people continues to be the subject of much debate. This paper presents a review of the literature showing that, while many econometric studies suggest little effect, more focused consumer studies, especially recent ones with sophisticated designs, do show clear links between advertising and behaviour. Furthermore, these effects have to be viewed in combination with the possible impact of other marketing activities such as price promotions, distribution, point of sale activity and new product development. Here, the evidence base is less well developed, but there are indications of effects. It must be acknowledged that categorical statements of cause and effect are always difficult in the social sciences; marketing is a complex phenomenon involving the active participation of consumers as well as marketers and more research is needed on its cumulative impact. Nonetheless, the literature presents an increasingly compelling picture that alcohol marketing is having an effect on young people's drinking. PMID:16167558

  12. Distinguishing between yield advances and yield plateaus in historical crop production trends

    PubMed Central

    Grassini, Patricio; Eskridge, Kent M.; Cassman, Kenneth G.

    2013-01-01

    Food security and land required for food production largely depend on rate of yield gain of major cereal crops. Previous projections of food security are often more optimistic than what historical yield trends would support. Many econometric projections of future food production assume compound rates of yield gain, which are not consistent with historical yield trends. Here we provide a framework to characterize past yield trends and show that linear trajectories adequately describe past yield trends, which means the relative rate of gain decreases over time. Furthermore, there is evidence of yield plateaus or abrupt decreases in rate of yield gain, including rice in eastern Asia and wheat in northwest Europe, which account for 31% of total global rice, wheat and maize production. Estimating future food production capacity would benefit from an analysis of past crop yield trends based on a robust statistical analysis framework that evaluates historical yield trajectories and plateaus. PMID:24346131

  13. Using theory to identify beliefs associated with support for policies to raise the price of high-fat and high-sugar foods.

    PubMed

    Niederdeppe, Jeff; Porticella, Norman; Shapiro, Michael A

    2012-01-01

    Public policies designed to dramatically raise the price of high-fat and high-sugar foods have received substantial attention from researchers and the media. Although econometric studies suggest that these policies could reduce obesity rates, they are likely to face substantial public opposition. This study used the theory of perceived responsibility and social motivation as a framework to analyze data from a politically diverse convenience sample of 500 adults in upstate New York. The authors examined associations between attribution beliefs and policy support to identify what types of scientific evidence and accompanying messages appear most likely to generate public support for price-raising policies. Results suggest that public health advocates and health communicators could benefit from an increased emphasis on advertising for unhealthy foods as a cause of obesity and the food industry's (manufacturers, advertisers, markets, and restaurants) responsibility for addressing the problem. PMID:22059780

  14. Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity.

    PubMed

    Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

    2009-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

  15. Is migration status a determinant of urban nutrition insecurity? Empirical evidence from Mumbai city, India.

    PubMed

    Choudhary, Neetu; Parthasarathy, D

    2009-09-01

    From an economic perspective that understood it as a spillover of development, migration is now also the subject of socioeconomic investigation incorporating the problems of assimilation, relative deprivation and isolation. The corollary is an increased emphasis on economic and social understanding of migration and its consequences. This entails studying migration or migrants in terms of factors beyond income. Health outcome is important among these non-income factors but at the same time remains less studied. Although there have been a few influential studies on health issues as linked to migration status, the issue of malnutrition in this context continues to be under-researched. This paper explores, theoretically and empirically, migration status and malnutrition in Mumbai in India. An econometric analysis of Demographic and Health Survey data gives insight into the dynamics of child and maternal undernutrition as mediated by migration status in Mumbai. PMID:19508740

  16. A spatiotemporal analysis of aggregate labour force behaviour by sex and age across the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elhorst, J. Paul

    2008-06-01

    This study investigates the causes of variation in age-specific male and female labour force participation rates using annual data from 154 regions across ten European Union member states for the period 1983-1997. Regional participation rates appear to be strongly correlated in time, weakly correlated in space and to parallel their national counterparts. An econometric model is designed consistent with these empirical findings. To control for potential endogeneity of the explanatory variables, we use an instrumental variables estimation scheme based on a matrix exponential spatial specification of the error terms. Many empirical studies of aggregate labour force behaviour have ignored population distribution effects, relying instead on the representative-agent paradigm. In order for representative-agent models to accurately describe aggregate behaviour, all marginal reactions of individuals to changes in aggregate variables must be identical. It turns out that this condition cannot apply to individuals across different sex/age groups.

  17. Turning points in international labor migration: a case study of Thailand.

    PubMed

    Vasuprasat, P

    1994-01-01

    "This article describes the dynamics of the structural transformation of the Thai economy, labor migration and direct foreign investment and proposes an econometric model to explain the migration phenomenon. Though migration shifts have been significantly influenced by political factors such as the Gulf crisis and tensions with Saudi Arabia, economic factors such as the Thai government's liberalization of markets and the expansion of trade and direct foreign investment have contributed to changes in labor market needs. The economic conditions of a shift from net exporter to net importer for labor are posited in the model. The empirical results reveal a turning point in labor migration from Thailand and also confirm the contribution of commodity export in place of labor export in creating employment and income." PMID:12287676

  18. Constructing 1/omegaalpha noise from reversible Markov chains.

    PubMed

    Erland, Sveinung; Greenwood, Priscilla E

    2007-09-01

    This paper gives sufficient conditions for the output of 1/omegaalpha noise from reversible Markov chains on finite state spaces. We construct several examples exhibiting this behavior in a specified range of frequencies. We apply simple representations of the covariance function and the spectral density in terms of the eigendecomposition of the probability transition matrix. The results extend to hidden Markov chains. We generalize the results for aggregations of AR1-processes of C. W. J. Granger [J. Econometrics 14, 227 (1980)]. Given the eigenvalue function, there is a variety of ways to assign values to the states such that the 1/omegaalpha condition is satisfied. We show that a random walk on a certain state space is complementary to the point process model of 1/omega noise of B. Kaulakys and T. Meskauskas [Phys. Rev. E 58, 7013 (1998)]. Passing to a continuous state space, we construct 1/omegaalpha noise which also has a long memory. PMID:17930206

  19. Constructing 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erland, Sveinung; Greenwood, Priscilla E.

    2007-09-01

    This paper gives sufficient conditions for the output of 1/ωα noise from reversible Markov chains on finite state spaces. We construct several examples exhibiting this behavior in a specified range of frequencies. We apply simple representations of the covariance function and the spectral density in terms of the eigendecomposition of the probability transition matrix. The results extend to hidden Markov chains. We generalize the results for aggregations of AR1-processes of C. W. J. Granger [J. Econometrics 14, 227 (1980)]. Given the eigenvalue function, there is a variety of ways to assign values to the states such that the 1/ωα condition is satisfied. We show that a random walk on a certain state space is complementary to the point process model of 1/ω noise of B. Kaulakys and T. Meskauskas [Phys. Rev. E 58, 7013 (1998)]. Passing to a continuous state space, we construct 1/ωα noise which also has a long memory.

  20. The Role of the Manufacturer in Air Transportation Planning

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mackenzie, J.

    1972-01-01

    The role of the aircraft manufacturer in the airline industry is considered. The process is illustrated by using a fictitious airline as an example--that is, a case study approach with Mid-Coast Airways serving as the example. Both in slide form and with supporting papers, a brief history of the airline, a description of its route structure and a forecast based on econometric analysis are presented. Once the forecast rationale is explained, information outlines the requirements for additional aircraft and the application of new aircraft across the system using alternative fleet plan options. The fleet plan is translated into financial summaries which indicate the relative merit of alternative aircraft types or operating plans.

  1. Costa Rica's payment for environmental services program: intention, implementation, and impact.

    PubMed

    Sánchez-Azofeifa, G Arturo; Pfaff, Alexander; Robalino, Juan Andres; Boomhower, Judson P

    2007-10-01

    We evaluated the intention, implementation, and impact of Costa Rica's program of payments for environmental services (PSA), which was established in the late 1990s. Payments are given to private landowners who own land in forest areas in recognition of the ecosystem services their land provides. To characterize the distribution of PSA in Costa Rica, we combined remote sensing with geographic information system databases and then used econometrics to explore the impacts of payments on deforestation. Payments were distributed broadly across ecological and socioeconomic gradients, but the 1997-2000 deforestation rate was not significantly lower in areas that received payments. Other successful Costa Rican conservation policies, including those prior to the PSA program, may explain the current reduction in deforestation rates. The PSA program is a major advance in the global institutionalization of ecosystem investments because few, if any, other countries have such a conservation history and because much can be learned from Costa Rica's experiences. PMID:17883482

  2. The value of information as applied to the Landsat Follow-on benefit-cost analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wood, D. B.

    1978-01-01

    An econometric model was run to compare the current forecasting system with a hypothetical (Landsat Follow-on) space-based system. The baseline current system was a hybrid of USDA SRS domestic forecasts and the best known foreign data. The space-based system improved upon the present Landsat by the higher spatial resolution capability of the thematic mapper. This satellite system is a major improvement for foreign forecasts but no better than SRS for domestic forecasts. The benefit analysis was concentrated on the use of Landsat Follow-on to forecast world wheat production. Results showed that it was possible to quantify the value of satellite information and that there are significant benefits in more timely and accurate crop condition information.

  3. Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buffalano, A. C.; Kochanowski, P.

    1976-01-01

    Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

  4. Effects of urban growth controls on intercity commuting.

    PubMed

    Ogura, Laudo M

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical study of the effects of urban growth controls on the intercity commuting of workers. Growth controls (land use regulations that attempt to restrict population growth and urban sprawl) have increased housing prices and diverted population growth to uncontrolled cities. It has been suggested that resulting changes in local labour supply might stimulate intercity commuting from uncontrolled to controlled cities. To test this hypothesis, a gravity model of commuting flows between places in California is estimated using alternative econometric methods (OLS, Heckman selection and count-data). The possibility of spatial dependence in commuting flows is also taken into consideration. Results suggest larger commuting flows to destination places that restrict residential growth. PMID:20722227

  5. Albemarle–Pamlico Sounds revealed and stated preference data

    PubMed Central

    Whitehead, John C.

    2015-01-01

    In this article we describe the contingent valuation and behavior methods scenario developed in the 1995 Albemarle–Pamlico Sounds Survey. The survey elicits revealed and stated preference recreation behavior data which are used to estimate the value of water quality improvements [4,8]. The survey elicits willingness to pay data which are used to conduct a split-sample scope test [7]. The data are used to jointly estimate revealed and stated preference recreation and willingness to pay data [2,6]. The data has been, and can continue to be, used to investigate econometric specification [3], bid design and other nonmarket valuation issues. The data have been used as illustrations and examples in three books that develop nonmarket valuation methods [1,5,9]. Data are supplied with this article. PMID:26217724

  6. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  7. Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model.

    PubMed

    López Nicolás, Angel; Vera-Hernández, Marcos

    2008-09-01

    This paper develops an empirical strategy to estimate whether subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing in countries where public and private insurance coexist and the latter covers the same treatments as the former. We construct a simulation routine based on a micro-econometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services. As an application, we estimate the budgetary effects of scrapping a subsidy from the purchase of individual private policies, using micro-data from Catalonia. Our results suggest that the subsidy is not self-financing. This result is driven by the fact that private medical insurance holders make concurrent use of public and private services, and by the price inelasticity of the demand for private policies. PMID:18692262

  8. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  9. Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.

  10. Economic effects of the rise in energy prices: what have we learned in ten years

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgenson, D.W.

    1984-05-01

    An econometric model used to assess the significance of changing forms of energy, specifically the role of electrification and nonelectrical energy, to productivity growth explains certain trends first described by Schurr and associates. The 1953-1973 decline in real energy prices led to the substitution of energy input for other inputs, a trend that was reversed after the oil shocks of the 1970s, when capital, labor, and materials inputs were substituted for energy to reduce the energy intensity of production. The energy price trends contributed to a marked slowdown in productivity growth. The data support the hypothesis that electrification and productivity growth are interrelated, and that the relation is even stronger for the use of nonelectrical energy and productivity growth. 11 references, 1 table.

  11. Determinants of Propranolol's Selective Effect on Loss Aversion.

    PubMed

    Sokol-Hessner, Peter; Lackovic, Sandra F; Tobe, Russell H; Camerer, Colin F; Leventhal, Bennett L; Phelps, Elizabeth A

    2015-07-01

    Research on emotion and decision making has suggested that arousal mediates risky decisions, but several distinct and often confounded processes drive such choices. We used econometric modeling to separate and quantify the unique contributions of loss aversion, risk attitudes, and choice consistency to risky decision making. We administered the beta-blocker propranolol in a double-blind, placebo-controlled within-subjects study, targeting the neurohormonal basis of physiological arousal. Matching our intervention's pharmacological specificity with a quantitative model delineating decision-making components allowed us to identify the causal relationships between arousal and decision making that do and do not exist. Propranolol selectively reduced loss aversion in a baseline- and dose-dependent manner (i.e., as a function of initial loss aversion and body mass index), and did not affect risk attitudes or choice consistency. These findings provide evidence for a specific, modulatory, and causal relationship between precise components of emotion and risky decision making. PMID:26063441

  12. ECONOMICS OF INDIVIDUALIZATION IN COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVENESS RESEARCH AND A BASIS FOR A PATIENT-CENTERED HEALTH CARE

    PubMed Central

    Basu, Anirban

    2011-01-01

    The United States aspires to use information from comparative effectiveness research (CER) to reduce waste and contain costs without instituting a formal rationing mechanism or compromising patient or physician autonomy with regard to treatment choices. With such ambitious goals, traditional combinations of research designs and analytical methods used in CER may lead to disappointing results. In this paper, I study how alternate regimes of comparative effectiveness information help shape the marginal benefits (demand) curve in the population and how such perceived demand curves impact decision-making at the individual patient level and welfare at the societal level. I highlight the need to individualize comparative effectiveness research in order to generate the true (normative) demand curve for treatments. I discuss methodological principles that guide research designs for such studies. Using an example of the comparative effect of substance abuse treatments on crime, I use novel econometric methods to salvage individualized information from an existing dataset. PMID:21601299

  13. Impact of energy and environmental legislation on industry: problems of regulatory cost assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Meier, P; Brown, S

    1980-01-01

    An examination is made of some of the problems of environmental impact assessment in the industrial sector, with particular attention to some important methodological problems frequently ignored. Some general problems of impact analysis are addressed in Section 2. This is followed in Section 3 by an overview of these major issues: the level of import substitutions, capital expenditures on pollution control, and a brief examination at how the industrial sector responded to post embargo energy price changes. Section 4 investigates marketplace responses to changes in manufacturing costs induced by regulatory requirements, from a general, theoretical microeconomics perspective. How industry responses can be estimated quantitatively for practical assessment purposes is taken up in Section 5, with a focus on the advantages and limitations of the two major modeling approaches (econometric and process models). These models allow investigations of the effects of different policies. (MCW)

  14. Economics of radiology report editing using voice recognition technology.

    PubMed

    Reinus, William R

    2007-12-01

    As voice recognition technology takes hold in radiology practices, independent and hospital-based practices are faced with a decision of who should be responsible for the report-editing process, radiologists or transcriptionists. Although a radiologist's time is expensive compared with a transcriptionist's, if certain other conditions prevail, it may be possible to eliminate transcriptionists from the report generation process. Among these conditions are political, budgeting, psychosocial, and economic constraints. The author presents an econometric model that examines the economic issues involved in such a decision. Practices, both academic and private, can use this model to help determine which course of action makes the most economic sense. This is not always obvious. PMID:18047984

  15. 'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

    2015-12-01

    This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. PMID:26344780

  16. Synopsis of Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission Value

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with the goal of improved enterprise and business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative work styles, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper summarizes the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural underpinnings.

  17. Methodology for Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. This paper proposes a Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) that provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings.

  18. Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

  19. National economic implications of substituting plant oils for diesel fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, G.S.; Griffin, R.C.; Lacewell, R.D.

    1982-01-01

    A regional field crop and national livestock econometric model (TECHSIM) was used to examine the impacts of diverting plant oils (cottonseed and soybeans) to use as a diesel fuel replacement. Two scenarios which represented a five and ten percent replacement of agriculture's diesel fuel use by plant oils were simulated. Producers shift into cotton and soybean production and out of corn, small grains and grain sorghum. Significant price shifts were estimated for cottonseed and soybean meal and oil, fed beef, pork and sheep. The annual reduction in social well being was estimated at about $.5 billion and over $1 billion for replacement of 5 and 10 percent, respectively of agricultural's diesel fuel use by plant oils. 2 figures, 4 tables.

  20. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries.

    PubMed

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W Philip T; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-05-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15-49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  1. Influence of health and environmental information on hedonic evaluation of organic and conventional bread.

    PubMed

    Annett, L E; Muralidharan, V; Boxall, P C; Cash, S B; Wismer, W V

    2008-05-01

    Grain from paired samples of the hard red spring wheat cultivar "Park" grown on both conventionally and organically managed land was milled and baked into 60% whole wheat bread. Consumers (n= 384) rated their liking of the bread samples on a 9-point hedonic scale before (blind) and after (labeled) receiving information about organic production. Consumers liked organic bread more (P < 0.05) than conventional bread under blind and labeled conditions. Environmental information about organic production did not impact consumer preference changes for organic bread, but health information coupled with sensory evaluation increased liking of organic bread. Ordinary least squares (OLS) and binary response (probit) regression models identified that postsecondary education, income level, frequency of bread consumption, and proenvironmental attitudes played a significant role in preference changes for organic bread. The techniques used in this study demonstrate that a combination of sensory and econometric techniques strengthens the evaluation of consumer food choice. PMID:18460130

  2. Business establishment mobility behavior in urban areas: a microanalytical model for the City of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maoh, Hanna; Kanaroglou, Pavlos

    2007-09-01

    We present a microanalytical firm mobility model for the City of Hamilton, Canada, developed with data from the Statistics Canada Business Register. Contributing to the scarce literature on firm migration behavior, we explore and model the determinants of mobility among small and medium size firms who retained less than 200 employees between 1996 and 1997. Our exploratory results suggest that short distance moves are more common and tend to occur among smaller firms. Econometric modeling results support these assertions and indicate that the willingness to move can be explained by a firm’s internal characteristics (e.g. age, size, growth and industry type) as well as location factors related to the urban environment where the firm is located. The modeling results will serve as input for the development of an agent-based firmographic decision support system that can be used to inform the planning process in the study area.

  3. Globalization in road safety: explaining the downward trend in road accident rates in a single country (Israel).

    PubMed

    Beenstock, M; Gafni, D

    2000-01-01

    A theoretical model is proposed in which road safety in a single country depends upon parochial considerations, such as police enforcement, and upon global considerations, such as international road safety technology. We show that there is a non-spurious relationship between the downward trend in the rate of road accidents in Israel and the road accident rate abroad. We suggest that this reflects the international propagation of road safety technology as it is embodied in motor vehicles and road design, rather than parochial road safety policy. Recent developments in the econometric analysis of time series are used to estimate the model using data for Israel. We make no direct attempt to explain the downward trend in the rate of road accidents outside Israel. PMID:10576678

  4. Two essays on real-time pricing of electric power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nainish Kumar

    1997-09-01

    This dissertation contains two essays on a new innovative pricing mechanism in the electric power industry known as Real Time Pricing (RTP). RTP is a method of pricing electric power wherein at least one component of the price is set at or near levels that reflect the marginal costs of providing power during each time-specific interval. These prices vary in accord with time-specific, incremental supplier costs. RTP allows customers to manage their own bills by adjusting their consumption as spot prices and supplier costs vary, which may amount during a single day from 2 cents to 85 cents for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of usage. Using 1995 data the hypothesis that industrial customers shift their usage patterns of electricity in response to real time prices is tested. To measure customer responsiveness to real time electric rates, econometric techniques are applied to estimate demand elasticities.

  5. Increased reward value of non-social stimuli in children and adolescents with autism

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Karli K.; Miller, Stephanie; Hannah, Eleanor; Kovac, Megan; Damiano, Cara R.; Sabatino-DiCrisco, Antoinette; Turner-Brown, Lauren; Sasson, Noah J.; Platt, Michael L.; Dichter, Gabriel S.

    2015-01-01

    An econometric choice task was used to estimate the implicit reward value of social and non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in children and adolescents with (n = 12) and without (n = 22) autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Mixed effects logistic regression analyses revealed that groups differed in valuation of images related to restricted interests: control children were indifferent to cash payouts to view these images, but children with ASD were willing to receive less cash payout to view these images. Groups did not differ in valuation of social images or non-social images not related to restricted interests. Results highlight that motivational accounts of ASD should also consider the reward value of non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in ASD (Dichter and Adolphs, 2012). PMID:26257684

  6. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

  7. Transfer entropy as a log-likelihood ratio.

    PubMed

    Barnett, Lionel; Bossomaier, Terry

    2012-09-28

    Transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between joint processes, has steadily gained popularity in the analysis of complex stochastic dynamics in diverse fields, including the neurosciences, ecology, climatology, and econometrics. We show that for a broad class of predictive models, the log-likelihood ratio test statistic for the null hypothesis of zero transfer entropy is a consistent estimator for the transfer entropy itself. For finite Markov chains, furthermore, no explicit model is required. In the general case, an asymptotic ?2 distribution is established for the transfer entropy estimator. The result generalizes the equivalence in the Gaussian case of transfer entropy and Granger causality, a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression, and establishes a fundamental connection between directed information transfer and causality in the Wiener-Granger sense. PMID:23030125

  8. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

  9. The impact of energy prices on technology choice in the United States steel industry

    SciTech Connect

    Karlson, S.H. . Dept. of Economics); Boyd, G. )

    1991-01-01

    In the last thirty years US steel producers have replaced their aging open hearth steel furnaces with basic oxygen or large electric arc furnaces. This choice of technology leads to the opportunity to substitute electricity for fossil fuels as a heat source. We extend earlier research to investigate whether or not energy prices affect this type of technology adoption as predicted by economic theory. The econometric model uses the seemingly unrelated Tobit'' method to capture the effects of the industry's experience with both technologies, technical change, and potential cost reductions, as well as energy prices, on adoption. When we include the prices of electricity and coking coal as explanatory variables, the four energy price coefficients have the signs predicted by the law of demand. The two price coefficients have a statistically significant effect on adoption of basic oxygen furnaces. The inclusion of energy prices leads to significantly more efficient estimates of other coefficients in the model. 19 refs., 3 tabs.

  10. National health expenditures: a global analysis.

    PubMed Central

    Murray, C. J.; Govindaraj, R.; Musgrove, P.

    1994-01-01

    As part of the background research to the World development report 1993: investing in health, an effort was made to estimate public, private and total expenditures on health for all countries of the world. Estimates could be found for public spending for most countries, but for private expenditure in many fewer countries. Regressions were used to predict the missing values of regional and global estimates. These econometric exercises were also used to relate expenditure to measures of health status. In 1990 the world spent an estimated US$ 1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10(12) on health, or $1.9 trillion (1.9 x 10(12)) in dollars adjusted for higher purchasing power in poorer countries. This amount was about 60% public and 40% private in origin. However, as incomes rise, public health expenditure tends to displace private spending and to account for the increasing share of incomes devoted to health. PMID:7923542

  11. Social comparison and subjective well-being: does the health of others matter?

    PubMed

    Carrieri, Vincenzo

    2012-01-01

    The importance of social comparison in shaping individual utility has been widely documented by subjective well-being literature. So far, income and unemployment have been the main dimensions considered in social comparison. This paper aims to investigate whether subjective well-being is influenced by inter-personal comparison with respect to health. Thus, we study the effects of the health of others and relative health hypotheses on two measures of subjective well-being: happiness and subjective health. Using data from the Italian Health Conditions survey, we show that a high incidence of chronic conditions and disability among reference groups negatively affects both happiness and subjective health. Such effects are stronger among people in the same condition. These results, robust to different econometric specifications and estimation techniques, suggest the presence of some sympathy in individual preferences with respect to health and reveal that other people's health status serves as a benchmark to assess one's own health condition. PMID:22299192

  12. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  13. Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

  14. Financial Constrains for Innovative Firms: The Role of Size, Industry and ICT Uses as Determinants of Firms' Financial Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castillo-Merino, David; Vilaseca-Requena, Jordi; Plana-Erta, Dolors

    This paper uses a large and original data set of Catalan firms in all the economic branches to analyse the effects of size, industry and degree of ICT uses on financial constraints for innovative firms. We have conducted a micro econometric analysis following Henry et al. (1999) investment model to empirically contrast the relationship between firms' investment spread over time and their financial structure, and we have used von Kalckreuth (2004) methodology, based on an original survey with data on financial issues. Our results show that it exits a positive and significant relationship between investment shift and financial structure, emerging financial constraints for more innovative firms. Furthermore, these constraints are higher for micro companies and firms within the knowledge-advanced services' industry. Finally, we have also found that advanced ICT uses by more innovative firms allow them to reduce constraints of access to sources of finance.

  15. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  16. Correlates of violence in Guinea's Maison Centrale Prison: a statistical approach to documenting human rights abuses.

    PubMed

    Osborn, Ronald E

    2010-01-01

    Les Mêmes Droits Pour Tous (MDT) is a human rights NGO in Guinea, West Africa that focuses on the rights of prisoners in Maison Centrale, the country's largest prison located in the capital city of Conakry. In 2007, MDT completed a survey of the prison population to assess basic legal and human rights conditions. This article uses statistical tools to explore MDT's survey results in greater depth, shedding light on human rights violations in Guinea. It contributes to human rights literature that argues for greater use of econometric tools in rights reporting, and demonstrates how human rights practitioners and academics can work together to construct an etiology of violence and torture by state actors, as physical violence is perhaps the most extreme violation of the individual's right to health. PMID:21178191

  17. Paradoxical Behavior of Granger Causality

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witt, Annette; Battaglia, Demian; Gail, Alexander

    2013-03-01

    Granger causality is a standard tool for the description of directed interaction of network components and is popular in many scientific fields including econometrics, neuroscience and climate science. For time series that can be modeled as bivariate auto-regressive processes we analytically derive an expression for spectrally decomposed Granger Causality (SDGC) and show that this quantity depends only on two out of four groups of model parameters. Then we present examples of such processes whose SDGC expose paradoxical behavior in the sense that causality is high for frequency ranges with low spectral power. For avoiding misinterpretations of Granger causality analysis we propose to complement it by partial spectral analysis. Our findings are illustrated by an example from brain electrophysiology. Finally, we draw implications for the conventional definition of Granger causality. Bernstein Center for Computational Neuroscience Goettingen

  18. Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability. This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.

  19. Quantifying Availability in SCADA Environments Using the Cyber Security Metric MFC

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Rabai, Latifa Ben Arfa; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are distributed networks dispersed over large geographic areas that aim to monitor and control industrial processes from remote areas and/or a centralized location. They are used in the management of critical infrastructures such as electric power generation, transmission and distribution, water and sewage, manufacturing/industrial manufacturing as well as oil and gas production. The availability of SCADA systems is tantamount to assuring safety, security and profitability. SCADA systems are the backbone of the national cyber-physical critical infrastructure. Herein, we explore the definition and quantification of an econometric measure of availability, as it applies to SCADA systems; our metric is a specialization of the generic measure of mean failure cost.

  20. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  1. Estimating the effects of urban residential development on water quality using microdata.

    PubMed

    Atasoy, Mary; Palmquist, Raymond B; Phaneuf, Daniel J

    2006-06-01

    In this study, we examine the impact on water quality of urbanization using disaggregate data from Wake County, North Carolina. We use a unique panel data set tracing the conversion of individual residentially zoned land parcels to relate the density of residential development and the change in residential land use to three measures of water quality. Using a spatial econometrics model, we relate spatially and temporally referenced monitoring station readings to our measures of residential land use while controlling for other factors affecting water quality. We find that both the density of residential land use and the rate of land conversion have a negative impact on water quality. The impacts of these non-point sources are found to be larger in magnitude than those from urban point sources. PMID:16303238

  2. Cost Drivers for Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Using Primary Source Data from Sub-Saharan Africa

    PubMed Central

    Bollinger, Lori; Adesina, Adebiyi; Forsythe, Steven; Godbole, Ramona; Reuben, Elan; Njeuhmeli, Emmanuel

    2014-01-01

    Background As voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) programs scale up, there is a pressing need for information about the important cost drivers, and potential efficiency gains. We examine those cost drivers here, and estimate the potential efficiency gains through an econometric model. Methods and Findings We examined the main cost drivers (i.e., personnel and consumables) associated with providing VMMC in sub-Saharan Africa along a number of dimensions, including facility type and service provider. Primary source facility level data from Kenya, Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia were utilized throughout. We estimated the efficiency gains by econometrically estimating a cost function in order to calculate the impact of scale and other relevant factors. Personnel and consumables were estimated at 36% and 28%, respectively, of total costs across countries. Economies of scale (EOS) is estimated to be eight at the median volume of VMMCs performed, and EOS falls from 23 at the 25th percentile volume of VMMCs performed to 5.1 at the 75th percentile. Conclusions The analysis suggests that there is significant room for efficiency improvement as indicated by declining EOS as VMMC volume increases. The scale of the fall in EOS as VMMC volume increases suggests that we are still at the ascension phase of the scale-up of VMMC, where continuing to add new sites results in additional start-up costs as well. A key aspect of improving efficiency is task sharing VMMC procedures, due to the large percentage of overall costs associated with personnel costs. In addition, efficiency improvements in consumables are likely to occur over time as prices and distribution costs decrease. PMID:24802593

  3. The federal photovoltaics commercialization program

    SciTech Connect

    Pegram, W.M.

    1989-01-01

    This dissertation presents a political and economic history of the federal government's program to commercialize photovoltaic energy. Chapter 1 is a detailed history of the program. Chapter 2 is a brief review of the Congressional roll call voting literature. Chapter 3 develops PV benefit measures at the state and Congressional district level necessary for an econometric analysis of PV roll call voting. The econometric analysis is presented in Chapter 4. Because PV power was more expensive than conventional power, the research and development program was designed to eventually make PV a significant power source. The decentralized R D program pursued alternative approaches in parallel, with subsequent funding dependent on earlier programs. Funding rose rapidly in the 1970s before shrinking in the 1980s. Tax credits were introduced in 1978, with the last of the credits due to expire this year. Major issues in the program have been the appropriate magnitude of demonstrations and government procurement, whether decentralized, residential use or centralized utility generation would first be economic, the role of storage in PV, and the role of PV in a utility's generation mix. Roll call voting on solar energy (all votes analyzed occur from 1975- 1980) was influenced in a cross-sectional sense by all the influence predicted: party and ideology, local economic benefits of the technology, local PV federal spending and manufacturing, and appropriations committee membership. The cross-sectional results for ideology are consistent with the strongly ideological character of solar energy politics and the timing of funding increases and decreases discussed in Chapter 1. Local PV spending and manufacturing was is significant than ideology or the economic benefits of the technology. Because time series analysis of the votes was not possible, it is not possible to test the role of economic benefits to the nation as a whole.

  4. Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin

  5. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to ?0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was ?0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657

  6. Financial incentives and primary care provision in Britain: do general practitioners maximise their income?

    PubMed

    Lynch, M

    1998-01-01

    The system of remunerating general practitioners (GPs) in Britain underwent significant changes in April 1990 with the implementation of a new contract between individual GPs and health authorities. The changes were a precursor to a wide-ranging programme of reforms of the British National Health Service. This paper investigates the relationship between financial incentives and the provision of primary health care services in Britain. A comprehensive anonymized data set was used, comprising information on 208 general practices in Scotland which serve just under one million people. An econometric model was tested to identify the determinants of cross-practice variation in the magnitude of the changes in GPs' remuneration levels between the two contracts. A linear programming model was used to examine the GPs' response to the financial incentives built into the new contract. The results of the econometric model indicated that the main beneficiaries of the 1990 contract were the practices which had expanded over the 1989-92 period, re-structured the GPs' partnership and made use of managerial skills by employing a practice manager; those practices also had larger lists in 1992 and relatively more patients attracting deprivation payments. The linear programming model showed that only a small minority of the practices (4.8%) maximised the remuneration from the new contract. Optimal solutions concerning income maximization strategies identified financial disincentives in the fee structure of the remuneration system associated with the provision of selected services and the care of particular groups of patients. The successful adoption of these strategies would involve cream skimming and selective service provision. However, there is no conclusive evidence of British GPs engaging in such activities. PMID:10662404

  7. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.

  8. Analyzing the Impact of Residential Building Attributes, Demographic and Behavioral Factors on Natural Gas Usage

    SciTech Connect

    Livingston, Olga V.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2011-03-03

    This analysis examines the relationship between energy demand and residential building attributes, demographic characteristics, and behavioral variables using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2005 microdata. This study investigates the applicability of the smooth backfitting estimator to statistical analysis of residential energy consumption via nonparametric regression. The methodology utilized in the study extends nonparametric additive regression via local linear smooth backfitting to categorical variables. The conventional methods used for analyzing residential energy consumption are econometric modeling and engineering simulations. This study suggests an econometric approach that can be utilized in combination with simulation results. A common weakness of previously used econometric models is a very high likelihood that any suggested parametric relationships will be misspecified. Nonparametric modeling does not have this drawback. Its flexibility allows for uncovering more complex relationships between energy use and the explanatory variables than can possibly be achieved by parametric models. Traditionally, building simulation models overestimated the effects of energy efficiency measures when compared to actual "as-built" observed savings. While focusing on technical efficiency, they do not account for behavioral or market effects. The magnitude of behavioral or market effects may have a substantial influence on the final energy savings resulting from implementation of various energy conservation measures and programs. Moreover, variability in behavioral aspects and user characteristics appears to have a significant impact on total energy consumption. Inaccurate estimates of energy consumption and potential savings also impact investment decisions. The existing modeling literature, whether it relies on parametric specifications or engineering simulation, does not accommodate inclusion of a behavioral component. This study attempts to bridge that gap by analyzing behavioral data and investigate the applicability of additive nonparametric regression to this task. This study evaluates the impact of 31 regressors on residential natural gas usage. The regressors include weather, economic variables, demographic and behavioral characteristics, and building attributes related to energy use. In general, most of the regression results were in line with previous engineering and economic studies in this area. There were, however, some counterintuitive results, particularly with regard to thermostat controls and behaviors. There are a number of possible reasons for these counterintuitive results including the inability to control for regional climate variability due to the data sanitization (to prevent identification of respondents), inaccurate data caused by to self-reporting, and the fact that not all relevant behavioral variables were included in the data set, so we were not able to control for them in the study. The results of this analysis could be used as an in-sample prediction for approximating energy demand of a residential building whose characteristics are described by the regressors in this analysis, but a certain combination of their particular values does not exist in the real world. In addition, this study has potential applications for benefit-cost analysis of residential upgrades and retrofits under a fixed budget, because the results of this study contain information on how natural gas consumption might change once a particular characteristic or attribute is altered. Finally, the results of this study can help establish a relationship between natural gas consumption and changes in behavior of occupants.

  9. Calendar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-06-01

    JULY 2004 2nd World Congress of the Game Theory Society, Faculty of Luminy, Marseille, France 5-9 July 2004 Europa Organisation (europa@europa-organisation.com), +33 5 34 45 26 45, www.gts2004.org Budapest Workshop on Behavioral Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary 5-10 July 2004 Eva Dotzi (behavecon@ceu.hu), www.iza.org/en/calls_conferences/CallCEU_04.pdf FDA'04. 1st IFAC Workshop on Fractional Differentiation and its Applications, Bordeaux, France 19-20 July 2004 IFAC secretariat (fda04@lap.u-bordeaux1.fr), www.lap.u-bordeaux.fr/fda04/ Bachelier Finance Society Third World Congress, InterContinental Hotel, Chicago, IL, USA 21-24 July 2004 bfs2004@uic.edu, www.uic.edu/orgs/bachelier/ BS/IMS 2004. 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Barcelona, Spain 26-31 July 2004 wc2004@pacifico-meetings.com, +34 93 402 13 85, www.imub.ub.es/events/wc2004 AUGUST 2004 Summer School in Econometrics. The Cointegrated VAR Model: Econometric Methodology and Macroeconomic Applications, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 2-22 August 2004 Summerschool@econ.ku.dk, www.econ.ku.dk/summerschool SEPTEMBER 2004 First Bonzenfreies Colloquium on Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics, Alessandria, Palazzo Borsalino, Italy 9-10 September 2004 colloquium@unipmn.it, www.mfn.unipmn.it/~colloqui/ Risk Analysis 2004. 4th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, Aldemar Paradise Royal Mare Hotel, Rhodes, Greece 27-29 September 2004 enquiries@wessex.ac.uk, +44 (0)238 029 3223, www.wessex.ac.uk/conferences/2004/risk04/ OCTOBER 2004 IRC Hedge 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 10, 11 October 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=10 NOVEMBER 2004 IRC DICE 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 22, 23 November 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=13 DECEMBER 2004 Quantitative Methods in Finance 2004, Sydney, Australia 15-18 December 2004 Andrea Schnaufer (qmf@uts.edu.au), +61 2 9514 7737, www.business.uts.edu.au/finance/resources/qmf2004/ JANUARY 2005 Developments in Quantitative Finance, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, UK 24 January-22 July 2005 www.newton.cam.ac.uk/programmes/DQF/index.html

  10. An analysis of the factors influencing demand-side management activity in the electric utility industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bock, Mark Joseph

    Demand-side management (DSM), defined as the "planning, implementation, and monitoring of utility activities designed to encourage consumers to modify their pattern of electricity usage, including the timing and level of electricity demand," is a relatively new concept in the U.S. electric power industry. Nevertheless, in twenty years since it was first introduced, utility expenditures on DSM programs, as well as the number of such programs, have grown rapidly. At first glance, it may seem peculiar that a firm would actively attempt to reduce demand for its primary product. There are two primary explanations as to why a utility might pursue DSM: regulatory mandate, and self-interest. The purpose of this dissertation is to determine the impact these influences have on the amount of DSM undertaken by utilities. This research is important for two reasons. First, it provides insight into whether DSM will continue to exist as competition becomes more prevalent in the industry. Secondly, it is important because no one has taken a comprehensive look at firm-level DSM activity on an industry-wide basis. The primary data set used in this dissertation is the U.S. Department of Energy's Annual Electric Utility Report, Form EIA-861, which represents the most comprehensive data set available for analyzing DSM activity in the U.S. There are four measures of DSM activity in this data set: (1) utility expenditures on DSM programs; (2) energy savings by DSM program participants; and (3) the actual and (4) the potential reductions in peak load resulting from utility DSM measures. Each is used as the dependent variable in an econometric analysis where independent variables include various utility characteristics, regulatory characteristics, and service territory and customer characteristics. In general, the results from the econometric analysis suggest that in 1993, DSM activity was primarily the result of regulatory pressure. All of the evidence suggests that if DSM continues to exist in a deregulated environment, it will be at a greatly reduced level. This conclusion holds unless utilities see advantages to DSM as a marketing tool to increase customer satisfaction and loyalty.

  11. [The methods selected and the assumption fixed for the population projection by region: the case of Japan since the 1960s (author's transl)].

    PubMed

    Kawabe, H

    1983-01-01

    Like many other countries, a large number of population projections have been undertaken in Japan since the 1960s, by both the central and the local governments and by other institutions. The methods selected and the assumptions fixed in these projections differ from one projection to another. In a review of 20 cases in which a clear description of the assumption is available, it became apparent that the methods selected had altered according to the transformation of the demand for the future population. Namely, the demands for the population projection had mainly been of the whole population during the 1960s but the demands for the population by sex and age have increased since the end of that period. Accordingly, the methods selected in the 1970s changed from the mathematical to the cohort component method (including the estimation by demographic models). It is also apparent that the criticism of the methods selected for the population projection itself and on the assumption fixed for the estimation, especially of migration rates, induce the alternation of the method selected. 1 of the criticisms of the methodology was concerning the mathematical one, in which the future population was projected by use of the mathematical equation which fit past population trends. It was pointed out that the future population should be estimated by use of estimated economic variables since the past population did not necessarily change to fit any mathematical equations. Another criticism of the methodology was of the cohort component method, in which net migration rates are estimated. It was argued that the multiregional demographic models were more suitable for population projections since they consider inmigration and outmigration as separate entities. The criticism of the assumption of migration rates was focused mainly on the cases which select the cohort component method. That is, these assumptions based only on the demographic consideration, neglecting the interrelationships between migration and socioeconomic factors which affect migration. It was emphasized that migration rates should be estimated by use of the econometric techniques such as the system dynamics model. The careful analysis of the assumptions fixed in 21 cases allowed the authors to conclude that 1 of these projections had not succeeded in obtaining satisfactory results, even when estimated by econometric techniques. This is partly due to the lack of information the relationships between migration and socioeconomic factors affecting migration, and partly due to the difficulties in estimating the future trend of socioeconomic variables. (author's modified) PMID:12155113

  12. Generality in nanotechnologies and its relationship to economic performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez Baquero, Fernando

    In the history if economic analysis there is perhaps no more important question than the one of how economic development is achieved. For more than a century, economists have explored the role of technology in economic growth but there is still much to be learned about the effect that technologies, in particular emerging ones, have on economic growth and productivity. The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between nanotechnologies and economic growth and productivity, using the theory of General Purpose Technology (GPT)-driven economic growth. To do so, the Generality Index (calculated from patent data) was used to understand the relative pervasiveness of nanotechnologies. The analysis of trends and patterns of Generality Index, using the largest group of patents since the publication of the NBER Patent Database, indicates that nanotechnologies possess a higher average Generality than other technological groups. Next, the relationship between the Generality Index and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was studied using econometric analysis. Model estimates indicate that the variation in Generality for the group of nanotechnologies can explain a large proportion of the variation in TFP. However, the explanatory power of the entire set of patents (not just nanotechnologies) is larger and corresponds better to the expected theoretical models. Additionally, there is a negative short-run relationship between Generality and TFP, conflicting with part of the theoretical GPT-models. Finally, the relationship between the Generality of nanotechnologies and policy-driven investment events, such as R&D investments and grant awards, was studied using econometric methods. The statistical evidence suggests that NSF awards are related to technologies with higher Generality, while NIH awards and NNI investments are related to a lower average Generality. Overall, results of this research work indicate that the introduction of pervasive technologies into an economic system sets in motion an interesting series of events that can both increase and decrease productivity and therefore economic growth. The metrics and methods developed in this work emphasize the importance of developing and using new metrics for strategic decision making, both in the private sector and in the public sector.

  13. Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological, phenological, geological, agronomic, and socio-economic variables are also considered to extend the model in order to reveal the proper causal relation. First results show that dry as well as wet extremes of SMI have a negative impact on crop yield for winter wheat. This indicates that soil moisture has at least a limiting affect on crop production.

  14. Economic Impacts of Wind Turbine Development in U.S. Counties

    SciTech Connect

    J., Brown; B., Hoen; E., Lantz; J., Pender; R., Wiser

    2011-07-25

    The objective is to address the research question using post-project construction, county-level data, and econometric evaluation methods. Wind energy is expanding rapidly in the United States: Over the last 4 years, wind power has contributed approximately 35 percent of all new electric power capacity. Wind power plants are often developed in rural areas where local economic development impacts from the installation are projected, including land lease and property tax payments and employment growth during plant construction and operation. Wind energy represented 2.3 percent of the U.S. electricity supply in 2010, but studies show that penetrations of at least 20 percent are feasible. Several studies have used input-output models to predict direct, indirect, and induced economic development impacts. These analyses have often been completed prior to project construction. Available studies have not yet investigated the economic development impacts of wind development at the county level using post-construction econometric evaluation methods. Analysis of county-level impacts is limited. However, previous county-level analyses have estimated operation-period employment at 0.2 to 0.6 jobs per megawatt (MW) of power installed and earnings at $9,000/MW to $50,000/MW. We find statistically significant evidence of positive impacts of wind development on county-level per capita income from the OLS and spatial lag models when they are applied to the full set of wind and non-wind counties. The total impact on annual per capita income of wind turbine development (measured in MW per capita) in the spatial lag model was $21,604 per MW. This estimate is within the range of values estimated in the literature using input-output models. OLS results for the wind-only counties and matched samples are similar in magnitude, but are not statistically significant at the 10-percent level. We find a statistically significant impact of wind development on employment in the OLS analysis for wind counties only, but not in the other models. Our estimates of employment impacts are not precise enough to assess the validity of employment impacts from input-output models applied in advance of wind energy project construction. The analysis provides empirical evidence of positive income effects at the county level from cumulative wind turbine development, consistent with the range of impacts estimated using input-output models. Employment impacts are less clear.

  15. Essays on measurement and evaluation of demand side management programs in the electricity industry, and impacts of firm strategy on stock price in the biotechnology industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandres Motola, Miguel A.

    Essay one estimates changes in small business customer energy consumption (kWh) patterns resulting from a seasonally differentiated pricing structure. Econometric analysis leverages cross-sectional time series data across the entire population of affected customers, from 2007 through the present. Observations include: monthly energy usage (kWh), relevant customer segmentations, local daily temperature, energy price, and region-specific economic conditions, among other variables. The study identifies the determinants of responsiveness to seasonal price differentiation. In addition, estimated energy consumption changes occurring during the 2010 summer season are reported for the average customer and in aggregate grouped by relevant customer segments, climate zone, and total customer base. Essay two develops an econometric modeling methodology to evaluate load impacts for short duration demand response events. The study analyzes time series data from a season of direct load control program tests aimed at integrating demand response into the wholesale electricity market. I have combined "fuzzy logic" with binary variables to create "fuzzy indicator variables" that allow for measurement of short duration events while using industry standard model specifications. Typically, binary variables for every hour are applied in load impact analysis of programs dispatched in hourly intervals. As programs evolve towards integration with the wholesale market, event durations become irregular and often occur for periods of only a few minutes. This methodology is innovative in that it conserves the degrees of freedom in the model while allowing for analysis of high frequency data using fixed effects. Essay three examines the effects of strategies, intangibles, and FDA news on the stocks of young biopharmaceutical firms. An event study methodology is used to explore those effects. This study investigates 20,839 announcements from 1990 to 2005. Announcements on drug development, alliances, publications, presentations, and FDA approval have a positive effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms. Announcements on goals not met, FDA drug approval denied, and changes in structural organizations have a negative effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms.

  16. The economic potential of carbon sequestration in Californian agricultural land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catala-Luque, Rosa

    This dissertation studies the potential success of a carbon sequestration policy based on payments to farmers for adoption of alternative, less intensive, management practices in California. Since this is a first approach from a Californian perspective, we focus on Yolo County, an important agricultural county of the State. We focus on the six more important crops of the region: wheat, tomato, corn, rice, safflower, and sunflower. In Chapter 1, we characterize the role of carbon sequestration in Climate Change policy. We also give evidence on which alternative management practices have greenhouse gas mitigation potential (reduced tillage, cover-cropping, and organic systems) based on a study of experimental sites. Chapter 2 advances recognizing the need for information at the field level, and describes the survey designed used to obtain data at the field level, something required to perform a complete integrated assessment of the issue. The survey design is complex in the sense that we use auxiliary information to obtain a control (subpopulation of conventional farmers)-case (subpopulation of innovative farmers) design with stratification for land use. We present estimates for population quantities of interest such as total variable costs, profits, managerial experience in different alternatives, etc. This information efficiently gives field level information for innovative farmers, a missing piece of information so far, since our sampling strategy required the inclusion with probability one of farmers identified as innovative. Using an agronomic process model (DayCent) for the sample and population units, we construct carbon mitigation cost curves for each crop and management observed. Chapter 3 builds different econometric models for cross-sectional data taking into account the survey design, and expanding the sample size constructing productivity potential under each alternative. Based on the yield productivity potential modeled for each unit, we conclude that a carbon sequestration program based in payments for management adoption is going to favor the probability of adoption of mitigating alternatives. Finally, in Chapter 4, we interpret the yield productivity potential, as a state variable, summarizing the complex system of environmental and land-use history of each field, and propose fully dynamic econometric models to structurally assess carbon sequestration policies.

  17. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality theory. Both results would not necessarily be achieved using standard econometric methods. The final chapter "Daylight Time and Energy" uses a quasi-experiment to evaluate a popular energy conservation policy: we challenge the conventional wisdom that extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces energy demand. Using detailed panel data on half-hourly electricity consumption, prices, and weather conditions from four Australian states we employ a novel 'triple-difference' technique to test the electricity-saving hypothesis. We show that the extension failed to reduce electricity demand and instead increased electricity prices. We also apply the most sophisticated electricity simulation model available in the literature to the Australian data. We find that prior simulation models significantly overstate electricity savings. Our results suggest that extending DST will fail as an instrument to save energy resources.

  18. Land-use change, deforestation, and peasant farm systems: A case study of Mexico's Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vance, Colin James

    This dissertation develops spatially explicit econometric models by linking Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery with household survey data to test behavioral propositions of semi-subsistence farmers in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR) of Mexico. Covering 22,000 km2, this agricultural frontier contains one of the largest and oldest expanses of tropical forests in the Americas outside of Amazonia. Over the past 30 years, the SYPR has undergone significant land-use change largely owing to the construction of a highway through the region's center in 1967. These landscape dynamics are modeled by exploiting a spatial database linking a time series of TM imagery with socio-economic and geo-referenced land-use data collected from a random sample of 188 farm households. The dissertation moves beyond the existing literature on deforestation in three principal respects. Theoretically, the study develops a non-separable model of land-use that relaxes the assumption of profit maximization almost exclusively invoked in studies of the deforestation issue. The model is derived from a utility-maximizing framework that explicitly incorporates the interdependency of the household's production and consumption choices as these affect the allocation of resources. Methodologically, the study assembles a spatial database that couples satellite imagery with household-level socio-economic data. The field survey protocol recorded geo-referenced land-use data through the use of a geographic positioning system and the creation of sketch maps detailing the location of different uses observed within individual plots. Empirically, the study estimates spatially explicit econometric models of land-use change using switching regressions and duration analysis. A distinguishing feature of these models is that they link the dependent and independent variables at the level of the decision unit, the land manager, thereby capturing spatial and temporal heterogeneity that is otherwise obscured in studies using data aggregated to higher scales of analysis. The empirical findings suggest the potential of various policy initiatives to impede or otherwise alter the pattern of land-cover conversions. In this regard, the study reveals that consideration of missing or thin markets is critical to understanding how farmers in the SYPR reach subsistence and commercial cropping decisions.

  19. Measuring the impact of energy consumption and air quality indicators on climate change: evidence from the panel of UNFCC classified countries.

    PubMed

    Ozturk, Ilhan

    2015-10-01

    This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, air pollution, and climate change in the panel of six economically diversified countries classified by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as industrialized countries and economies in transition nations by using the panel econometric techniques for the period of 1990-2012. The results of pooled least square regression show that both the energy consumption and air quality indicators have a positive and significant relationship with the climate change, i.e., 1 % increase in energy consumption increases greenhouse gas emissions by 0.124 %, carbon dioxide emissions increase by 0.652 %, methane emissions increase by 0.123 %, and nitrous oxide emissions increase greenhouse gas emissions by 0.105 % age points. The results of fixed-effect regression and random-effect regression confirmed the deteriorating impact of air quality indicators on climate change; however, the results failed to show any significant association between energy consumption and climate change when absorbing country-specific shocks and time-variant shocks during the study time period. PMID:26004566

  20. The Science of Transportation Analysis and Simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gleibe, John

    2010-03-01

    Transportation Science focuses on methods developed to model and analyze the interaction between human behavior and transportation systems. From the human behavioral, or demand, perspective, we are interested in how person and households organize their activities across space and time, with travel viewed as an enabling activity. We have a particular interest in how to model the range of responses to public policy and transportation system changes, which leads to the consideration of both short- and long-term decision-making, interpersonal dependencies, and non-transportation-related opportunities and constraints, including household budgets, land use systems and economic systems. This has led to the development of complex structural econometric modeling systems as well as agent-based simulations. From the transportation systems, or supply, perspective we are interested in the level of service provide by transportation facilities, be it auto, transit or multi-modal systems. This has led to the development of network models and equilibrium concepts as well as hybrid simulation systems based on concepts borrowed from physics, such as fluid flow models, and cellular automata-type models. In this presentation, we review a representative sample of these methods and their use in transportation planning and public policy analysis.

  1. Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

    2015-01-01

    Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

  2. With string model to time series forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

    2015-10-01

    Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant date but rather on the aggregate date, which is also not a real financial case. In this paper, we would like to show a new way how to analyze and, moreover, forecast financial market. We utilize the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology in the OANDA market. The latter approach allows us to build the stable prediction models in trading in the financial forex market. The real application of the multi-string structures is provided to demonstrate our ideas for the solution of the problem of the robust portfolio selection. The comparison with the trend following strategies was performed, the stability of the algorithm on the transaction costs for long trade periods was confirmed.

  3. An interregional hedonic analysis of noxious facility impacts on local wages and property values

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, D.E.; Nieves, L.A.

    1991-12-31

    Claims of property value loss are commonly raised by homeowners when noxious facilities are sited or when new information about the hazards of existing facilities is made public. While the capitalization of externalities into land values is consistent with economic theory, empirical measurement of impacts has not generated consistent results. This is true both for hedonic measurements as well as other types of econometric analyses. While it is well established that job and site risks have similar impacts on regional labor markets, there are no studies relating the presence of a broad range of noxious facilities to local wage premiums. In contrast, this study employs an interregional framework in a hedonic analysis of both wage and property markets and considers eight different facility classifications. This paper discusses the development of the hedonic model employed in this study. It develops more fully the theoretical advantages of the intercity model and alternative methods of deriving implicit prices for environmental amenities and disamenities. The unique data base and the structure of the estimated model are described. It also includes a discussion of the research findings. Major conclusions and suggestions for further research are presented.

  4. An interregional hedonic analysis of noxious facility impacts on local wages and property values

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, D.E.; Nieves, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    Claims of property value loss are commonly raised by homeowners when noxious facilities are sited or when new information about the hazards of existing facilities is made public. While the capitalization of externalities into land values is consistent with economic theory, empirical measurement of impacts has not generated consistent results. This is true both for hedonic measurements as well as other types of econometric analyses. While it is well established that job and site risks have similar impacts on regional labor markets, there are no studies relating the presence of a broad range of noxious facilities to local wage premiums. In contrast, this study employs an interregional framework in a hedonic analysis of both wage and property markets and considers eight different facility classifications. This paper discusses the development of the hedonic model employed in this study. It develops more fully the theoretical advantages of the intercity model and alternative methods of deriving implicit prices for environmental amenities and disamenities. The unique data base and the structure of the estimated model are described. It also includes a discussion of the research findings. Major conclusions and suggestions for further research are presented.

  5. Tradeoffs among carbon, biodiversity, and economic returns for future land-use scenarios in the conterminous United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pennington, D. N.; Nelson, E.; Polasky, S.; Plantinga, A.; Lewis, D.; Whithey, J.; Radeloff, V.; Lawler, J.; White, D.; Martinuzzi, S.; Helmers, D.; Lonsdorf, E.

    2011-12-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, changes ecosystem processes, and causes ultimately the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected future land use at both the fine-spatial scale relevant for many ecological processes and at the larger regional levels relevant for large-scale policy making. We use an econometric model to predict business as usual land-use change across the continental US with 100-m resolution in 5-year time steps from 2001 to 2051. We then simulate the affect of various national-level tax, subsidy, and zoning policies on expected land-use change over this time frame. Further, we model the impact of projected land-use change under business as usual and the various policy scenarios on carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the conterminous United States. Our results showed that overall, land use composition will remain fairly stable, but there are considerable regional changes. Differences among policy scenarios were relatively minor highlighting that the underlying economic drivers of land use patterns are strong, and even fairly drastic policies may not be able to change these.

  6. An empirical study on the driving mechanism of proactive corporate environmental management in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xianbing; Liu, Beibei; Shishime, Tomohiro; Yu, Qinqin; Bi, Jun; Fujitsuka, Tetsuro

    2010-08-01

    Environmentalism in China is under transformation from the traditional command and control model to emphasize the advantages of economic tools and encourage the participation of the public. Firms are much more aware of the importance of environmental issues, and some of them have practiced environmental activities beyond compliance. In order to help understand the driving mechanism of proactive corporate environmental behaviors from the firm's perspective, this paper identifies the drivers affecting the proactive environmental management level (EML(p)) based on the institutional theory, and gives an empirical study on the firms based in Changshu city of Jiangsu Province, China. The usable data, collected from the 117 valid respondents in a questionnaire survey, indicates that EML(p) is still moderately low currently. Less than 10% of the samples are practicing all the six categorized types of voluntary environmental activities. The econometric exercise confirms a significantly positive effect of the externally mimetic pressure on EML(p), which may attribute to a higher sensitivity of Chinese companies to the market factors. However, the roles of the general public and industrial associations are not significant, showing the marginal power of selected normative pressures. Regarding internal factors, firms, which view environmental issues as opportunities and often arrange internal environmental training, are more likely to adopt proactive environmental activities. More concerns from the general public like neighborhood communities and mass media shall be addressed to enhance the normative power to improve EML(p) in China from the future perspective. PMID:20399552

  7. Cost-benefit analysis of riparian protection in an eastern Canadian watershed.

    PubMed

    Trenholm, Ryan; Lantz, Van; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto; Little, Shawn

    2013-02-15

    Forested riparian buffers have proved to be an effective management practice that helps maintain ecological goods and services in watersheds. In this study, we assessed the non-market benefits and opportunity costs associated with implementing these buffers in an eastern Canadian watershed using contingent valuation and wood supply modeling methods, respectively. A number of buffer scenarios were considered, including 30 and 60 m buffers on woodlots and on all land (including woodlots, agricultural, and residential lands) in the watershed. Household annual WTP estimates ranged from -$6.80 to $42.85, and total present value benefits ranged from -$11.7 to $121.7 million (CDN 2007), depending on the buffer scenario, affected population, time horizon, and econometric modeling assumptions considered. Opportunity cost estimates range from $1.3 to $10.4 million in present value terms, depending on silvicultural and agriculture land rental rate assumptions. Overall, we found that the net present value of riparian buffers was positive for the majority of scenarios and assumptions. Some exceptions were found under more conservative benefit, and higher unit cost, assumptions. These results provide decision makers with data on stated benefits and opportunity costs of riparian buffers, as well as insight into the importance of modeling assumptions when using this framework of analysis. PMID:23291404

  8. Failure Impact Analysis of Key Management in AMI Using Cybernomic Situational Assessment (CSA)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    In earlier work, we presented a computational framework for quantifying the security of a system in terms of the average loss a stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of threats to the system. We named this system, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES). In this paper, we refine the framework and apply it to cryptographic key management within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) as an example. The stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats are determined. We then populate the matrices with justified values by addressing the AMI at a higher level, rather than trying to consider every piece of hardware and software involved. We accomplish this task by leveraging the recently established NISTR 7628 guideline for smart grid security. This allowed us to choose the stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats realistically. We reviewed the literature and selected an industry technical working group to select three representative threats from a collection of 29 threats. From this subset, we populate the stakes, dependency, and impact matrices, and the threat vector with realistic numbers. Each Stakeholder s Mean Failure Cost is then computed.

  9. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  10. Low-carbon transition of iron and steel industry in China: carbon intensity, economic growth and policy intervention.

    PubMed

    Yu, Bing; Li, Xiao; Qiao, Yuanbo; Shi, Lei

    2015-02-01

    As the biggest iron and steel producer in the world and one of the highest CO2 emission sectors, China's iron and steel industry is undergoing a low-carbon transition accompanied by remarkable technological progress and investment adjustment, in response to the macroeconomic climate and policy intervention. Many drivers of the CO2 emissions of the iron and steel industry have been explored, but the relationships between CO2 abatement, investment and technological expenditure, and their connections with the economic growth and governmental policies in China, have not been conjointly and empirically examined. We proposed a concise conceptual model and an econometric model to investigate this crucial question. The results of regression, Granger causality test and impulse response analysis indicated that technological expenditure can significantly reduce CO2 emissions, and that investment expansion showed a negative impact on CO2 emission reduction. It was also argued with empirical evidence that a good economic situation favored CO2 abatement in China's iron and steel industry, while achieving CO2 emission reduction in this industrial sector did not necessarily threaten economic growth. This shed light on the dispute over balancing emission cutting and economic growth. Regarding the policy aspects, the year 2000 was found to be an important turning point for policy evolution and the development of the iron and steel industry in China. The subsequent command and control policies had a significant, positive effect on CO2 abatement. PMID:25662248

  11. A REVIEW OF ASSUMPTIONS AND ANALYSIS IN EPRI EA-3409,"HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCE CHOICE: REVISION OF REEPS BEHAVIORAL MODELS"

    SciTech Connect

    Wood, D.J.; Ruderman, H.; McMahon, J. E.

    1989-05-01

    This paper revises and extends EPRI report EA-3409, ''Household Appliance Choice: Revision of REEPS Behavioral Models.'' That paper reported the results of an econometric study of major appliance choice in new residential construction. Errors appeared in two tables of that report. We offer revised versions of those tables, and a brief analysis of the consequences and significance of the errors. The present paper also proposes several possible extensions and re-specifications of the models examined by EPRI. Some of these are judged to be highly successful; they both satisfy economic intuition more completely than the original specification and produce a better quality fit to the dependent variable. We feel that inclusion of these modifications produces a more useful set of coefficients for economic modeling than the original specification. This paper focuses on EPRI's models of residential space heating technology choice. That choice was modeled as a nested logit structure, with consumers choosing whether to have central air conditioning or not, and, given that choice, what kind of space heating system to have. The model included five space heating alternatives with central cooling (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; heat pumps; and electric baseboard) and eight alternatives without it (gas, oil, and electric forced-air; gas and oil boilers and non-central systems; and electric baseboard heat). The structure of the nested logit model is shown in Figure 1.

  12. A spatial generalized ordered response model to examine highway crash injury severity.

    PubMed

    Castro, Marisol; Paleti, Rajesh; Bhat, Chandra R

    2013-03-01

    This paper proposes a flexible econometric structure for injury severity analysis at the level of individual crashes that recognizes the ordinal nature of injury severity categories, allows unobserved heterogeneity in the effects of contributing factors, as well as accommodates spatial dependencies in the injury severity levels experienced in crashes that occur close to one another in space. The modeling framework is applied to analyze the injury severity sustained in crashes occurring on highway road segments in Austin, Texas. The sample is drawn from the Texas Department of Transportation (TxDOT) crash incident files from 2009 and includes a variety of crash characteristics, highway design attributes, driver and vehicle characteristics, and environmental factors. The results from our analysis underscore the value of our proposed model for data fit purposes as well as to accurately estimate variable effects. The most important determinants of injury severity on highways, according to our results, are (1) whether any vehicle occupant is ejected, (2) whether collision type is head-on, (3) whether any vehicle involved in the crash overturned, (4) whether any vehicle occupant is unrestrained by a seat-belt, and (5) whether a commercial truck is involved. PMID:23333845

  13. The evolution of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy--Canadian consumer and producer behavior.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jun; Goddard, Ellen

    2011-01-01

    In this study the dynamics of risk perceptions related to bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) held by Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers were evaluated. Since the first domestic case of BSE in 2003, Canadian consumers and cow-calf producers have needed to make decisions on whether or not their purchasing/production behavior should change. Such changes in their behavior may relate to their levels of risk perceptions about BSE, risk perceptions that may be evolving over time and be affected by BSE media information available. An econometric analysis of the behavior of consumers and cow-calf producers might identify the impacts of evolving BSE risk perceptions. Risk perceptions related to BSE are evaluated through observed market behavior, an approach that differs from traditional stated preference approaches to eliciting risk perceptions at a particular point in time. BSE risk perceptions may be specified following a Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF) derived from sociology, psychology, and economics. Based on the SARF, various quality and quantity indices related to BSE media information are used as explanatory variables in risk perception equations. Risk perceptions are approximated using a predictive difference approach as defined by Liu et al. (1998). Results showed that Canadian consumer and cow-calf producer risk perceptions related to BSE have been amplified or attenuated by both quantity and quality of BSE media information. Government policies on risk communications need to address the different roles of BSE information in Canadian consumers' and cow-calf producers' behavior. PMID:21218347

  14. Residential Electricity Demand in China -- Can Efficiency Reverse the Growth?

    SciTech Connect

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.; Zhou, Nan

    2009-05-18

    The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic growth that China has experienced is not expected to slow down significantly in the long term, which implies continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper draws on the extensive expertise from the China Energy Group at LBNL on forecasting energy consumption in China, but adds to it by exploring the dynamics of demand growth for electricity in the residential sector -- and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling, in combination with historical trends in China. The products considered (refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, washing machines, lighting, standby power, space heaters, and water heating) account for 90percent of household electricity consumption in China. Using this method, we determine the trend and dynamics of demandgrowth and its dependence on macroeconomic drivers at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, we present scenarios for reducing residential consumption through efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, thus allowing for a technologically realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities specifically in the Chinese context.

  15. Fractal patterns in Stock Intertrading Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, Ainslie; Lee, Youngki; Ivanov, Plamen Ch.

    2003-03-01

    We study intertrades times (ITT) of stock trades of a range of companies included in the New York Stock Exchange's Trades and Quotes (TAQ) database. The time between transactions is an indicator of the dynamics of the market, and in the field of econometrics, intertrade durations play a key role in the understanding of the market activity and microstructure. Previous work has mainly focused on the properties of price changes of individual company stocks as well as global financial indices (e.g. SP500, DJ etc.). We hypothesize that there is a relation between the dynamics of price change and the trading activity. To investigate this relation we first study the statistical features of ITT data. The TAQ database covers all transactions on the NSE, AMEX, NASDAQ and the US regional exchanges. We have performed a preliminary analysis of 100 company stocks from a range of industries of the US economy selecting predominantly those companies which have large market capitalisations (MC). We focus on companies with large MC, since the dynamics of the price change and trading activity of stocks of such companies has a considerable impact on the market behaviour.

  16. Combating unmeasured confounding in cross-sectional studies: evaluating instrumental-variable and Heckman selection models.

    PubMed

    DeMaris, Alfred

    2014-09-01

    Unmeasured confounding is the principal threat to unbiased estimation of treatment "effects" (i.e., regression parameters for binary regressors) in nonexperimental research. It refers to unmeasured characteristics of individuals that lead them both to be in a particular "treatment" category and to register higher or lower values than others on a response variable. In this article, I introduce readers to 2 econometric techniques designed to control the problem, with a particular emphasis on the Heckman selection model (HSM). Both techniques can be used with only cross-sectional data. Using a Monte Carlo experiment, I compare the performance of instrumental-variable regression (IVR) and HSM to that of ordinary least squares (OLS) under conditions with treatment and unmeasured confounding both present and absent. I find HSM generally to outperform IVR with respect to mean-square-error of treatment estimates, as well as power for detecting either a treatment effect or unobserved confounding. However, both HSM and IVR require a large sample to be fully effective. The use of HSM and IVR in tandem with OLS to untangle unobserved confounding bias in cross-sectional data is further demonstrated with an empirical application. Using data from the 2006-2010 General Social Survey (National Opinion Research Center, 2014), I examine the association between being married and subjective well-being. PMID:25110904

  17. What drives patient mobility across Italian regions? Evidence from hospital discharge data.

    PubMed

    Balia, Silvia; Brau, Rinaldo; Marrocu, Emanuela

    2014-01-01

    This chapter examines patient mobility across Italian regions using data on hospital discharges that occurred in 2008. The econometric analysis is based on Origin-Destination (OD) flow data. Since patient mobility is a crucial phenomenon in contexts of hospital competition based on quality and driven by patient choice, as is the case in Italy, it is crucial to understand its determinants. What makes the Italian case more interesting is the decentralization of the National Health Service that yields large regional variation in patient flows in favor of Centre-Northern regions, which typically are 'net exporters' of hospital treatments. We present results from gravity models estimated using count data estimators, for total and specific types of flows (ordinary admissions, surgical DRGs and medical DRGs). We model cross-section dependence by specifically including features other than geographical distance for OD pairs, such as past migration flows and the share of surgical DRGs. Most of the explanatory variables exhibit the expected effect, with distance and GDP per capita at origin showing a negative impact on patient outflows. Past migrations and indicators of performance at destination are effective determinants of patient mobility. Moreover, we find evidence of regional externalities due to spatial proximity effects at both origin and destination. PMID:24864385

  18. Do pharmaceuticals displace local knowledge and use of medicinal plants? Estimates from a cross-sectional study in a rural indigenous community, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Giovannini, Peter; Reyes-García, Victoria; Waldstein, Anna; Heinrich, Michael

    2011-03-01

    Researchers examining the relationships between traditional medicine and biomedicine have observed two conflicting tendencies. Some suggest that the use of biomedicine and biomedical concepts displaces the use of traditional medicine and medical beliefs. Other scholars have found that traditional medicine and biomedicine can co-exist, complement, and blend with each other. In this paper we use an econometric model and quantitative data to test the association between individual knowledge of pharmaceuticals and individual knowledge of medicinal plants. We use data from a survey among 136 household heads living in a rural indigenous community in Oaxaca, Mexico. Data were collected as a part of long term fieldwork conducted between April 2005 and August 2006 and between December 2006 and April 2007. We found a significant positive association between an individual's knowledge of medicinal plants and the same individual's knowledge of pharmaceuticals, as well as between her use of medicinal plants and her use of pharmaceuticals. We also found a negative association between the use of medicinal plants and schooling. Our results suggest that, in the study site, individual knowledge of medicinal plants and individual knowledge of pharmaceuticals co-exist in a way which might be interpreted as complementary. We conclude that social organization involved in the use of medicines from both traditional medicine and biomedicine is of particular significance, as our findings suggest that the use of pharmaceuticals alone is not associated with a decline in knowledge/use of medicinal plants. PMID:21345562

  19. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

  20. Valuing biodiversity attributes and water supply using choice experiments: a case study of La Campana Peñuelas Biosphere Reserve, Chile.

    PubMed

    Cerda, Claudia

    2013-01-01

    The main objective of this study is to assess public economic preferences for biodiversity conservation and water supply and to analyse the factors influencing those preferences. A survey based on the choice experiment method was carried out at Peñuelas National Reserve, Chile, an area that is threatened by both occasional forest fires and the growing housing market. The input of local administrators was used to define environmental attributes of the area related to biodiversity conservation and water supply. Attributes were selected for analysis by the choice experiment. The selected attributes were the following: existence of endemic orchid species, chances of observing animals with scenic attraction, additional protection for an endemic amphibian, and availability of drinkable water in the future. A monetary variable consisting of an increase in the rate for entry to the area was also incorporated to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for additional protection for the selected attributes. Three hundred four Chilean visitors to the reserve were randomly selected for interviews. Econometric analysis based on the Theory of Utility Maximization shows that visitors are willing to pay to protect the selected attributes. WTP values for the attributes range from CHP $2,600 ($5.4) to $6,600 ($14) per person per visit. The results of this research provide reserve managers information about tradeoffs that could be used to enhance public support and maximise the social benefits of nature conservation management programmes. PMID:22367365

  1. Hospital merger control in Germany, the Netherlands and England: Experiences and challenges.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Andreas; Varkevisser, Marco

    2016-01-01

    Aiming at the efficiency enhancing and quality improving effects of competition, various steps have been undertaken to foster competition in hospital markets. For these mechanisms to work, robust competition policy needs to be enacted and enforced. We compare the hospital markets in Germany, the Netherlands and England regarding their experience with competition and put a special focus on merger control and the stringency of its implementation. Elaborating on the differences in merger control practice we find that despite very similar goals the respective agencies apply very different approaches and take fundamentally different routes when balancing proclaimed benefits of mergers with potential risks of consolidated markets. While the German competition authority has a strong focus on maintaining the preconditions for competition, in the Netherlands we find over the past decade a much stronger focus on hypothesized countervailing buyer power, accepting in turn highly concentrated markets. In England we find the currently most comprehensive analysis of proposed mergers in combination with a clearly positive assessment of the effects of patient choice and competition on prices and quality. All agencies are still reluctant to implement merger simulation models or similarly advanced econometric methods in their appraisal. One very likely reason is a lack of country specific empirical evidence on these matters. PMID:26643437

  2. The ASAC Air Carrier Investment Model (Second Generation)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wingrove, Earl R., III; Johnson, Jesse P.; Sickles, Robin C.; Good, David H.

    1997-01-01

    To meet its objective of assisting the U.S. aviation industry with the technological challenges of the future, NASA must identify research areas that have the greatest potential for improving the operation of the air transportation system. To accomplish this, NASA is building an Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC). The ASAC differs from previous NASA modeling efforts in that the economic behavior of buyers and sellers in the air transportation and aviation industries is central to its conception. To link the economics of flight with the technology of flight, ASAC requires a parametrically based mode with extensions that link airline operations and investments in aircraft with aircraft characteristics. This model also must provide a mechanism for incorporating air travel demand and profitability factors into the airlines' investment decisions. Finally, the model must be flexible and capable of being incorporated into a wide-ranging suite of economic and technical models that are envisioned for ASAC. We describe a second-generation Air Carrier Investment Model that meets these requirements. The enhanced model incorporates econometric results from the supply and demand curves faced by U.S.-scheduled passenger air carriers. It uses detailed information about their fleets in 1995 to make predictions about future aircraft purchases. It enables analysts with the ability to project revenue passenger-miles flown, airline industry employment, airline operating profit margins, numbers and types of aircraft in the fleet, and changes in aircraft manufacturing employment under various user-defined scenarios.

  3. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series.

    PubMed

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

  4. Role of sugar cane in Brazil's history and economy

    SciTech Connect

    Nastari, P.M.

    1983-01-01

    The history and evolution of the sugar-cane culture in Brazil is reviewed. An econometric model is constructed to explain the economic relationships of supply and demand of sugar, hydrous ethanol (ethyl alcohol), and anhydrous ethanol in Brazil overtime. Estimates of the parameters in the model are obtained using the methods of ordinary least squares and three stages least squares. Because the number of exogenous variables is larger than the number of observations, principal components of the exogenous variables is used. The model estimated using three stages least squares with seven principal components has the best performance among the alternatives considered. Using the estimated model, the level of a number of policy variables is determined in consistency with the objectives of ethanol production established by the Brazilian government for 1985. It is estimated that in 1985 the proportion of anhydrous ethanol added to gasoline must be 16.5%. Analysis of the net income accrued by producers and the government since the creation of the National Alcohol Program (Proalcool) in 1975 reveals that producers of sugar have been able to triple their net annual income. Independent producers of ethanol have also been able to accrue positive net results during this period. It is concluded that the Proalcool has been beneficial to the Brazilian economy, largely because of the savings in oil imports and the internal creation of jobs, while at the same time it has contributed to a superavit in the government's budget.

  5. How energy conversion drives economic growth far from the equilibrium of neoclassical economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kümmel, Reiner; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2014-12-01

    Energy conversion in the machines and information processors of the capital stock drives the growth of modern economies. This is exemplified for Germany, Japan, and the USA during the second half of the 20th century: econometric analyses reveal that the output elasticity, i.e. the economic weight, of energy is much larger than energy's share in total factor cost, while for labor just the opposite is true. This is at variance with mainstream economic theory according to which an economy should operate in the neoclassical equilibrium, where output elasticities equal factor cost shares. The standard derivation of the neoclassical equilibrium from the maximization of profit or of time-integrated utility disregards technological constraints. We show that the inclusion of these constraints in our nonlinear-optimization calculus results in equilibrium conditions, where generalized shadow prices destroy the equality of output elasticities and cost shares. Consequently, at the prices of capital, labor, and energy we have known so far, industrial economies have evolved far from the neoclassical equilibrium. This is illustrated by the example of the German industrial sector evolving on the mountain of factor costs before and during the first and the second oil price explosion. It indicates the influence of the ‘virtually binding’ technological constraints on entrepreneurial decisions, and the existence of ‘soft constraints’ as well. Implications for employment and future economic growth are discussed.

  6. Technology cost segment model for light-duty trucks

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-12-01

    Development of a computerized model to forecast the consumer cost of improving domestic light duty truck (LDT) fuel economy is developed. The LDT TCSM described is designed for two alternative uses: to provide technical information for econometric models of light truck sales and to be used interactively to support the analysis of specific policy issues. A means of categorizing the vehicles in the LDT market is developed and the way the truck market structure differs from that of the automobile market is explained. The methodology used to create the LDT TCSM is presented. The basic automotive TCSM (Technology/Cost Segment Model) was altered to incorporate upcoming changes in the LDT market. New models and technologies used in the LDT TCSM are described. TCSM construction and operation are explained. Special attention is devoted to explaining the model structure which accounts for engineering, marketing, and manufacturing constraints on new technology introduction. Appendix A provides an exhaustive listing of the data sources used in compiling the cost matrices. Appendix B lists the cost matrices; Appendix C contains sales projections for use in calculating aggregate fuel economy levels for manufacturers and size classes.

  7. Latent class instrumental variables: a clinical and biostatistical perspective.

    PubMed

    Baker, Stuart G; Kramer, Barnett S; Lindeman, Karen S

    2016-01-15

    In some two-arm randomized trials, some participants receive the treatment assigned to the other arm as a result of technical problems, refusal of a treatment invitation, or a choice of treatment in an encouragement design. In some before-and-after studies, the availability of a new treatment changes from one time period to this next. Under assumptions that are often reasonable, the latent class instrumental variable (IV) method estimates the effect of treatment received in the aforementioned scenarios involving all-or-none compliance and all-or-none availability. Key aspects are four initial latent classes (sometimes called principal strata) based on treatment received if in each randomization group or time period, the exclusion restriction assumption (in which randomization group or time period is an instrumental variable), the monotonicity assumption (which drops an implausible latent class from the analysis), and the estimated effect of receiving treatment in one latent class (sometimes called efficacy, the local average treatment effect, or the complier average causal effect). Since its independent formulations in the biostatistics and econometrics literatures, the latent class IV method (which has no well-established name) has gained increasing popularity. We review the latent class IV method from a clinical and biostatistical perspective, focusing on underlying assumptions, methodological extensions, and applications in our fields of obstetrics and cancer research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26239275

  8. Assessments of Wind-Energy Potential in Selected Sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria: Implications for Renewable/Sustainable Rural Electrification

    PubMed Central

    Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

  9. Changing and Differentiated Urban Landscape in China: Spatiotemporal Patterns and Driving Forces.

    PubMed

    Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong; Wang, Shaojian

    2016-03-01

    Urban landscape spatiotemporal change patterns and their driving mechanisms in China are poorly understood at the national level. Here we used remote sensing data, landscape metrics, and a spatial econometric model to characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of urban landscape change and investigate its driving forces in China between 1990 and 2005. The results showed that the urban landscape pattern has experienced drastic changes over the past 15 years. Total urban area has expanded approximately 1.61 times, with a 2.98% annual urban-growth rate. Compared to previous single-city studies, although urban areas are expanding rapidly, the overall fragmentation of the urban landscape is decreasing and is more irregular and complex at the national level. We also found a stair-stepping, urban-landscape changing pattern among eastern, central, and western counties. In addition, administrative level, urban size, and hierarchy have effects on the urban landscape pattern. We also found that a combination of landscape metrics can be used to supplement our understanding of the pattern of urbanization. The changes in these metrics are correlated with geographical indicators, socioeconomic factors, infrastructure variables, administrative level factors, policy factors, and historical factors. Our results indicate that the top priority should be strengthening the management of urban planning. A compact and congregate urban landscape may be a good choice of pattern for urban development in China. PMID:26856966

  10. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  11. Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?*

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986–2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections’ positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment. PMID:26052164

  12. Invited Commentary: Fundamental Causes, Social Context, and Modifiable Risk Factors in the Racial/Ethnic Inequalities in Blood Pressure and Hypertension.

    PubMed

    Hicken, Margaret T

    2015-08-15

    Racial and ethnic inequalities in blood pressure and hypertension have been well documented, but their causes remain unclear, making efforts to reduce these inequalities challenging. In this issue of the Journal, Basu et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2015;182(4):345-353) address this gap in our knowledge by using an econometric approach to examine the role of 4 conventional risk factors for hypertension. Their results suggest that targeting certain risk factors will reduce racial inequalities in the prevalence of hypertension. However, racial differences in modifiable risk factors are enmeshed within disparate socioenvironmental contexts which are in turn determined by inequalities in the distribution of social, economic, and political resources and constraints. A small but growing body of literature suggests that targeting the intermediate risk factors that link racial group membership to hypertension, rather than the context or the inequalities in the distribution of resources and constraints, will ultimately result in little change in hypertension inequalities, increase these inequalities, or even create inequalities in poor mental health. PMID:26199378

  13. Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

  14. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-09-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors.

  15. Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project. [Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winston, M. M.; Conner, D. W.

    1980-01-01

    An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

  16. Determinants of Healthcare Expenditure in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Countries: Evidence from Panel Cointegration Tests

    PubMed Central

    Samadi, Alihussein; Homaie Rad, Enayatollah

    2013-01-01

    Background: Over the last decade there has been an increase in healthcare expenditures while at the same time the inequity in distribution of resources has grown. These two issues have urged the researchers to review the determinants of healthcare expenditures. In this study, we surveyed the determinants of health expenditures in Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) countries. Methods: We used Panel data econometrics methods for the purpose of this research. For long term analysis, we used Pesaran cross sectional dependency test followed by panel unit root tests to show first whether the variables were stationary or not. Upon confirmation of no stationary variables, we used Westerlund panel cointegration test in order to show whether long term relationships exist between the variables. At the end, we estimated the model with Continuous-Updated Fully Modified (CUP-FM) estimator. For short term analysis also, we used Fixed Effects (FE) estimator to estimate the model. Results: A long term relationship was found between the health expenditures per capita and GDP per capita, the proportion of population below 15 and above 65 years old, number of physicians, and urbanisation. Besides, all the variables had short term relationships with health expenditures, except for the proportion of population above 65 years old. Conclusion: The coefficient of GDP was below 1 in the model. Therefore, health is counted as a necessary good in ECO countries and governments must pay due attention to the equal distribution of health services in all regions of the country. PMID:24596838

  17. Measurement error and outcome distributions: Methodological issues in regression analyses of behavioral coding data.

    PubMed

    Holsclaw, Tracy; Hallgren, Kevin A; Steyvers, Mark; Smyth, Padhraic; Atkins, David C

    2015-12-01

    Behavioral coding is increasingly used for studying mechanisms of change in psychosocial treatments for substance use disorders (SUDs). However, behavioral coding data typically include features that can be problematic in regression analyses, including measurement error in independent variables, non normal distributions of count outcome variables, and conflation of predictor and outcome variables with third variables, such as session length. Methodological research in econometrics has shown that these issues can lead to biased parameter estimates, inaccurate standard errors, and increased Type I and Type II error rates, yet these statistical issues are not widely known within SUD treatment research, or more generally, within psychotherapy coding research. Using minimally technical language intended for a broad audience of SUD treatment researchers, the present paper illustrates the nature in which these data issues are problematic. We draw on real-world data and simulation-based examples to illustrate how these data features can bias estimation of parameters and interpretation of models. A weighted negative binomial regression is introduced as an alternative to ordinary linear regression that appropriately addresses the data characteristics common to SUD treatment behavioral coding data. We conclude by demonstrating how to use and interpret these models with data from a study of motivational interviewing. SPSS and R syntax for weighted negative binomial regression models is included in online supplemental materials. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26098126

  18. Deregulation-restructuring: Evidence for individual industries

    SciTech Connect

    Costello, K.W.; Graniere, R.J.

    1997-05-01

    Several studies have measured the effects of regulation on a particular industry. These studies range widely in sophistication, from simple observation (comparison) of pre-transformation and post-transformation actual industry performance to econometric analysis that attempt to separate the effects of deregulation from other factors in explaining changes in an industry`s performance. The major problem with observation studies is that they are unable to measure the effect of one particular event, such as deregulation, on an industry`s performance. For example, at the same time that the United Kingdom privatized its electric power industry, it also radically restructured the industry to encourage competition and instituted a price-cap mechanism to regulate the prices of transmission, distribution, and bundled retail services. Subsequent to these changes in 1991, real prices for most UK electricity customers have fallen. It is not certain however, which of these factors was most important or even contributed to the decline in price. In any event, one must be cautious in interpreting the results of studies that attempt to measure the effect of deregulation per se for a specific industry. This report highlights major outcomes for five industries undergoing deregulation or major regulatory and restructuring reforms. These include the natural gas, transportation, UK electric power, financial, and telecommunications industries. Particular attention was given to the historical development of events in the telecommunications industry.

  19. Nuclear's role in 21. century Pacific rim energy use

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, Clifford; Taylor, J'Tia

    2007-07-01

    Extrapolations contrast the future of nuclear energy use in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to that of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Japan can expect a gradual rise in the nuclear fraction of a nearly constant total energy use rate as the use of fossil fuels declines. ROK nuclear energy rises gradually with total energy use. ASEAN's total nuclear energy use rate can rapidly approach that of the ROK if Indonesia and Vietnam make their current nuclear energy targets by 2020, but experience elsewhere suggests that nuclear energy growth may be slower than planned. Extrapolations are based on econometric calibration to a utility optimization model of the impact of growth of population, gross domestic product, total energy use, and cumulative fossil carbon use. Fractions of total energy use from fluid fossil fuels, coal, water-driven electrical power production, nuclear energy, and wind and solar electric energy sources are fit to market fractions data. Where historical data is insufficient for extrapolation, plans for non-fossil energy are used as a guide. Extrapolations suggest much more U.S. nuclear energy and spent nuclear fuel generation than for the ROK and ASEAN until beyond the first half of the twenty-first century. (authors)

  20. Measuring competition in health care markets.

    PubMed Central

    Baker, L C

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Measuring competition is increasingly important for analysis of health care markets and policies. Measurement of competition in health care is made complex by the breadth of potential issues under study, by the lack of necessary data, and by rapid changes in health care financing and delivery. This study reviews key issues in the measurement of competition and is designed to familiarize researchers and policymakers interested in competition measurement, but not steeped in its practice, with key concepts, data sources, and ways of adapting measures to fit ongoing changes in health care markets. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Attention to several key issues will strengthen measurement. Important components of successful measurement are: careful identification of the products and market areas for study; selection of Herfindahl-Hirschman or other indices to fit the issues being considered; consideration of econometric problems, like endogeneity, with common measures; and attention to the ways that current marketplace changes, like growth in managed care, affect the performance of classic measures. Data needed for constructing measures are also frequently scarce, insufficient, or both. Measurement could be improved with access to better data. PMID:11327175

  1. Obesity and fast food in urban markets: a new approach using geo-referenced micro data.

    PubMed

    Chen, Susan Elizabeth; Florax, Raymond J; Snyder, Samantha D

    2013-07-01

    This paper presents a new method of assessing the relationship between features of the built environment and obesity, particularly in urban areas. Our empirical application combines georeferenced data on the location of fast-food restaurants with data about personal health, behavioral, and neighborhood characteristics. We define a 'local food environment' for every individual utilizing buffers around a person's home address. Individual food landscapes are potentially endogenous because of spatial sorting of the population and food outlets, and the body mass index (BMI) values for individuals living close to each other are likely to be spatially correlated because of observed and unobserved individual and neighborhood effects. The potential biases associated with endogeneity and spatial correlation are handled using spatial econometric estimation techniques. Our application provides quantitative estimates of the effect of proximity to fast-food restaurants on obesity in an urban food market. We also present estimates of a policy simulation that focuses on reducing the density of fast-food restaurants in urban areas. In the simulations, we account for spatial heterogeneity in both the policy instruments and individual neighborhoods and find a small effect for the hypothesized relationships between individual BMI values and the density of fast-food restaurants. PMID:22911977

  2. Behavioral interventions in resource conservation: a system approach based on behavioral economics

    SciTech Connect

    Winkler, R.C.; Winett, R.A.

    1982-04-01

    Behavioral interventions to promote resource conservation have tended to focus narrowly on the control of target behaviors or practices, at the expense of viewing conservation behaviors within a systems context both at the micro and macro levels. This article outlines some of the advantages of an integration of psychological (social-learning) and economic conceptualizations. This integration is illustrated (a) by discussion of the procedures and results of rebate studies in residential energy and water conservation, in which rebates were used as a method to modify conservation behaviors and to estimate experimentally price elasticity in contrast to the usual econometric methods; (b) by a meta-analysis on behavioral energy studies conducted from 1973 to 1980, which shows that the effectiveness of rebates and feedback is partially explained by an economic factor; (c) by field-based studies designed to modify perceptions of comfort and residential energy conservation; and (d) by the development of a rebate system congruent with planning policies and instituted to reduce domestic water consumption. Maximization theory is offered as an integrative, conceptual framework that may be useful for planning resource conservation interventions. The importance of combining economic and psychological analyses and techniques for effective resource management is emphasized. 49 references, 1 figure.

  3. Contextual determinants of induced abortion: a panel analysis

    PubMed Central

    Llorente-Marrón, Mar; Díaz-Fernández, Montserrat; Méndez-Rodríguez, Paz

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Analyze the contextual and individual characteristics that explain the differences in the induced abortion rate, temporally and territorially. METHODS We conducted an econometric analysis with panel data of the influence of public investment in health and per capita income on induced abortion as well as a measurement of the effect of social and economic factors related to the labor market and reproduction: female employment, immigration, adolescent fertility and marriage rate. The empirical exercise was conducted with a sample of 22 countries in Europe for the 2001-2009 period. RESULTS The great territorial variability of induced abortion was the result of contextual and individual socioeconomic factors. Higher levels of national income and investments in public health reduce its incidence. The following sociodemographic characteristics were also significant regressors of induced abortion: female employment, civil status, migration, and adolescent fertility. CONCLUSIONS Induced abortion responds to sociodemographic patterns, in which the characteristics of each country are essential. The individual and contextual socioeconomic inequalities impact significantly on its incidence. Further research on the relationship between economic growth, labor market, institutions and social norms is required to better understand its transnational variability and to reduce its incidence. PMID:27007684

  4. Impacts of energy price increases on the well-being of farmers and consumers

    SciTech Connect

    Christensen, D.A.; Heady, E.O.

    1984-01-01

    The change which has most affected the agricultural sector has been the substitution of capital inputs for labor in the agricultural production process facilitated by availability of cheap fuel to run new machinery. Farmers are now experiencing large increases in the cost of energy. This econometric study examines the impacts of rising petroleum prices on the well-being of farmers and consumers. In general, as energy prices rise, farmers purchase less machinery, less fertilizer, and more labor, reversing previous trends in input usage. Because of these changes, crop yields decline and output is reduced. As total crop supply declines, prices received by farmers increase. The higher prices for these crops raise the cost of feeding livestock. Thus livestock production is reduced and the price for livestock rises. Since the demand for food goods is inelastic with respect to its own price, farm incomes actually rise. Consumers, on the other hand, face higher food prices and slightly reduce their consumption of meat products. 9 references, 9 figures, 4 tables.

  5. Success factors for reducing maternal and child mortality.

    PubMed

    Kuruvilla, Shyama; Schweitzer, Julian; Bishai, David; Chowdhury, Sadia; Caramani, Daniele; Frost, Laura; Cortez, Rafael; Daelmans, Bernadette; de Francisco, Andres; Adam, Taghreed; Cohen, Robert; Alfonso, Y Natalia; Franz-Vasdeki, Jennifer; Saadat, Seemeen; Pratt, Beth Anne; Eugster, Beatrice; Bandali, Sarah; Venkatachalam, Pritha; Hinton, Rachael; Murray, John; Arscott-Mills, Sharon; Axelson, Henrik; Maliqi, Blerta; Sarker, Intissar; Lakshminarayanan, Rama; Jacobs, Troy; Jack, Susan; Jacks, Susan; Mason, Elizabeth; Ghaffar, Abdul; Mays, Nicholas; Presern, Carole; Bustreo, Flavia

    2014-07-01

    Reducing maternal and child mortality is a priority in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and will likely remain so after 2015. Evidence exists on the investments, interventions and enabling policies required. Less is understood about why some countries achieve faster progress than other comparable countries. The Success Factors for Women's and Children's Health studies sought to address this knowledge gap using statistical and econometric analyses of data from 144 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) over 20 years; Boolean, qualitative comparative analysis; a literature review; and country-specific reviews in 10 fast-track countries for MDGs 4 and 5a. There is no standard formula--fast-track countries deploy tailored strategies and adapt quickly to change. However, fast-track countries share some effective approaches in addressing three main areas to reduce maternal and child mortality. First, these countries engage multiple sectors to address crucial health determinants. Around half the reduction in child mortality in LMICs since 1990 is the result of health sector investments, the other half is attributed to investments made in sectors outside health. Second, these countries use strategies to mobilize partners across society, using timely, robust evidence for decision-making and accountability and a triple planning approach to consider immediate needs, long-term vision and adaptation to change. Third, the countries establish guiding principles that orient progress, align stakeholder action and achieve results over time. This evidence synthesis contributes to global learning on accelerating improvements in women's and children's health towards 2015 and beyond. PMID:25110379

  6. An analysis of long and medium-haul air passenger demand, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.

    1978-01-01

    A basic model was developed which is a two equation pair econometric system in which air passenger demand and airline level-of-service are the endogenous variables. The model aims to identify the relationship between each of these two variables and its determining factors, and to identify the interaction of demand and level-of-service with each other. The selected variable for the measure of air passenger traffic activity in a given pair market is defined as the number of passengers in a given time that originate in one region and fly to the other region for purposes other than to make a connection to a third region. For medium and long haul markets, the model seems to perform better for larger markets. This is due to a specification problem regarding the route structure variable. In larger markets, a greater percentage of nonlocal passengers are accounted for by this variable. Comparing the estimated fare elasticities of long and medium haul markets, it appears that air transportation demand is more price elastic in longer haul markets. Long haul markets demand will saturate with a fewer number of departures than will demand in medium haul markets.

  7. Multidisciplinary modeling and GIS for landscape management

    SciTech Connect

    Flamm, R.O.; Turner, M.G.

    1993-12-31

    Ecological dynamics in human-influenced landscapes are strongly affected by the socioeconomic factors that influence land-use decisions. Incorporating these factors into a spatially-explicit landscape-change model requires the integration of multidisciplinary data. We developed a model that simulates the effects of land use on landscape structure in the Little Tennessee River Basin in western North Carolina. This model uses a variety of data, including interpreted remotely-sensed imagery, census and ownership maps, topography, and results from econometric models. Data are integrated by using a geographic information system and translated into a common format, maps. Simulations generate new maps of land cover representing the amount of land-cover change that occurs. With spatially-explicit projections of landscape change, issues such as biodiversity conservation, the importance of specific landscape elements to conservation goals, and long-term landscape integrity can be addressed. In order for management to use the model to address these issues, a computer-based landscape-management decision aid is being developed. This tool integrates the models, associated data bases, and a geographic information system to facilitate the evaluation of land-use decisions and management plans. This system will estimate landscape-level consequences of alternative actions and will serve to focus coordination among different land-owners and land-use interests in managing the regional landscape.

  8. Geographic Determinants of Chinese Urbanization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mccord, G. C.; Christensen, P.

    2011-12-01

    In the first years of the 21st century, the human race became primarily urban for the first time in history. With countries like India and China rapidly undergoing structural change from rural agricultural-based economies to urbanized manufacturing- and service-based economies, knowing where the coming waves of urbanization will occur would be of interest for infrastructure planning and for modeling consequences for ecological systems. We employ spatial econometric methods (geographically weighted regression, spatial lag models, and spatial errors models) to estimate two determinants of urbanization in China. The first is the role of physical geography, measured as topography-adjusted distance to major ports and suitability of land for agriculture. The second is the spatial agglomeration effect, which we estimate with a spatial lag model. We find that Chinese urbanization between 1990 and 2000 exhibited important spatial agglomeration effects, as well as significant explanatory power of nearby agricultural suitability and distance to ports, both in a nationwide model and in a model of local regression estimates. These results can help predict the location of new Chinese urbanization, and imply that climate change-induced changes in agricultural potential can affect the spatial distribution of urban areas.

  9. Natural experiment evidence on the effect of migration on blood pressure and hypertension.

    PubMed

    Gibson, John; Stillman, Steven; McKenzie, David; Rohorua, Halahingano

    2013-06-01

    Over 200 million people worldwide live outside their country of birth and typically experience large gains in material well-being by moving to where wages are higher. But, the effect of this migration on other dimensions of well-being such as health are less clear and existing evidence is ambiguous because of potential for self-selection bias. In this paper, we use a natural experiment, comparing successful and unsuccessful applicants to a migration lottery to experimentally estimate the impact of migration on measured blood pressure and hypertension. Hypertension is a leading global health problem, as well as being an important health measure that responds quickly to migration. We use various econometric estimators to form bounds on the treatment effects because there appears to be selective non-compliance in the natural experiment. Even with these bounds, the results suggest significant and persistent increases in blood pressure and hypertension, which are likely to have implications for future health budgets given recent increases in developing to developed country migration. PMID:22566369

  10. Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

    2014-07-01

    One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

  11. The limitations of randomized controlled trials in predicting effectiveness.

    PubMed

    Cartwright, Nancy; Munro, Eileen

    2010-04-01

    What kinds of evidence reliably support predictions of effectiveness for health and social care interventions? There is increasing reliance, not only for health care policy and practice but also for more general social and economic policy deliberation, on evidence that comes from studies whose basic logic is that of JS Mill's method of difference. These include randomized controlled trials, case-control studies, cohort studies, and some uses of causal Bayes nets and counterfactual-licensing models like ones commonly developed in econometrics. The topic of this paper is the 'external validity' of causal conclusions from these kinds of studies. We shall argue two claims. Claim, negative: external validity is the wrong idea; claim, positive: 'capacities' are almost always the right idea, if there is a right idea to be had. If we are right about these claims, it makes big problems for policy decisions. Many advice guides for grading policy predictions give top grades to a proposed policy if it has two good Mill's-method-of difference studies that support it. But if capacities are to serve as the conduit for support from a method-of-difference study to an effectiveness prediction, much more evidence, and much different in kind, is required. We will illustrate the complexities involved with the case of multisystemic therapy, an internationally adopted intervention to try to diminish antisocial behaviour in young people. PMID:20367845

  12. A hybrid finite mixture model for exploring heterogeneous ordering patterns of driver injury severity.

    PubMed

    Ma, Lu; Wang, Guan; Yan, Xuedong; Weng, Jinxian

    2016-04-01

    Debates on the ordering patterns of crash injury severity are ongoing in the literature. Models without proper econometrical structures for accommodating the complex ordering patterns of injury severity could result in biased estimations and misinterpretations of factors. This study proposes a hybrid finite mixture (HFM) model aiming to capture heterogeneous ordering patterns of driver injury severity while enhancing modeling flexibility. It attempts to probabilistically partition samples into two groups in which one group represents an unordered/nominal data-generating process while the other represents an ordered data-generating process. Conceptually, the newly developed model offers flexible coefficient settings for mining additional information from crash data, and more importantly it allows the coexistence of multiple ordering patterns for the dependent variable. A thorough modeling performance comparison is conducted between the HFM model, and the multinomial logit (MNL), ordered logit (OL), finite mixture multinomial logit (FMMNL) and finite mixture ordered logit (FMOL) models. According to the empirical results, the HFM model presents a strong ability to extract information from the data, and more importantly to uncover heterogeneous ordering relationships between factors and driver injury severity. In addition, the estimated weight parameter associated with the MNL component in the HFM model is greater than the one associated with the OL component, which indicates a larger likelihood of the unordered pattern than the ordered pattern for driver injury severity. PMID:26809075

  13. [Economic factors and gender differences in the prevalence of smoking among adults].

    PubMed

    Paes, Nelson Leitão

    2016-01-01

    This article presents a study that seeks to identify the relevant economic variables in the prevalence of smoking in a group of 37 countries. The chosen methodology was to estimate multiple linear regression using the least square approach. The econometric exercise is performed by gender, seeking to examine whether there are different motivations for cigarette smoking among the adult population of men and women. The results show that although taxation is a common element in the decision of both sexes, the decision to smoke among women is also sensitive to price and other social and cultural factors. These factors were based on the fact that women who live in countries that are part of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reveal a significantly higher prevalence of cigarette consumption. The evidence presented in this study, therefore, reinforces the perception that taxation is in fact a crucial tool in the control of smoking, but in the specific case of women, higher prices and the promotion of greater equality with men, are also important. PMID:26816163

  14. Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty.

    PubMed

    Hanauer, Merlin M; Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo

    2015-11-01

    Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts. PMID:26460125

  15. Contextual determinants of induced abortion: a panel analysis.

    PubMed

    Llorente-Marrón, Mar; Díaz-Fernández, Montserrat; Méndez-Rodríguez, Paz

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Analyze the contextual and individual characteristics that explain the differences in the induced abortion rate, temporally and territorially. METHODS We conducted an econometric analysis with panel data of the influence of public investment in health and per capita income on induced abortion as well as a measurement of the effect of social and economic factors related to the labor market and reproduction: female employment, immigration, adolescent fertility and marriage rate. The empirical exercise was conducted with a sample of 22 countries in Europe for the 2001-2009 period. RESULTS The great territorial variability of induced abortion was the result of contextual and individual socioeconomic factors. Higher levels of national income and investments in public health reduce its incidence. The following sociodemographic characteristics were also significant regressors of induced abortion: female employment, civil status, migration, and adolescent fertility. CONCLUSIONS Induced abortion responds to sociodemographic patterns, in which the characteristics of each country are essential. The individual and contextual socioeconomic inequalities impact significantly on its incidence. Further research on the relationship between economic growth, labor market, institutions and social norms is required to better understand its transnational variability and to reduce its incidence. PMID:27007684

  16. Causal effects of socioeconomic status on central adiposity risks: Evidence using panel data from urban Mexico.

    PubMed

    Levasseur, Pierre

    2015-07-01

    Associated with overweight, obesity and chronic diseases, the nutrition transition process reveals important socioeconomic issues in Mexico. Using panel data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, the purpose of the study is to estimate the causal effect of household socioeconomic status (SES) on nutritional outcomes among urban adults. We divide the analysis into two steps. First, using a mixed clustering procedure, we distinguish four socioeconomic classes based on income, educational and occupational dimensions: (i) a poor class; (ii) a lower-middle class; (iii) an upper-middle class; (iv) a rich class. Second, using an econometric framework adapted to our study (the Hausman-Taylor estimator), we measure the impact of belonging to these socioeconomic groups on individual anthropometric indicators, based on the body-mass index (BMI) and the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Our results make several contributions: (i) we show that a new middle class, rising out of poverty, is the most exposed to the risks of adiposity; (ii) as individuals from the upper class seem to be fatter than individuals from the upper-middle class, we can reject the assumption of an inverted U-shaped relationship between socioeconomic and anthropometric status as commonly suggested in emerging economies; (iii) the influence of SES on central adiposity appears to be particularly strong for men. PMID:26004210

  17. Granger causality for state-space models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnett, Lionel; Seth, Anil K.

    2015-04-01

    Granger causality has long been a prominent method for inferring causal interactions between stochastic variables for a broad range of complex physical systems. However, it has been recognized that a moving average (MA) component in the data presents a serious confound to Granger causal analysis, as routinely performed via autoregressive (AR) modeling. We solve this problem by demonstrating that Granger causality may be calculated simply and efficiently from the parameters of a state-space (SS) model. Since SS models are equivalent to autoregressive moving average models, Granger causality estimated in this fashion is not degraded by the presence of a MA component. This is of particular significance when the data has been filtered, downsampled, observed with noise, or is a subprocess of a higher dimensional process, since all of these operations—commonplace in application domains as diverse as climate science, econometrics, and the neurosciences—induce a MA component. We show how Granger causality, conditional and unconditional, in both time and frequency domains, may be calculated directly from SS model parameters via solution of a discrete algebraic Riccati equation. Numerical simulations demonstrate that Granger causality estimators thus derived have greater statistical power and smaller bias than AR estimators. We also discuss how the SS approach facilitates relaxation of the assumptions of linearity, stationarity, and homoscedasticity underlying current AR methods, thus opening up potentially significant new areas of research in Granger causal analysis.

  18. An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

  19. Do incentives still matter for the reform of irrigation management in the Yellow River Basin in China?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Jinxia; Huang, Jikun; Zhang, Lijuan; Huang, Qiuqiong

    2014-09-01

    Under the pressure of increasing water shortages and the need to sustain the development of irrigated agriculture, since the middle of the 1990s, officials in the YRB have begun to push for the institutional reform of irrigation management. Based on a panel data set collected in 2001 and 2005 in the Yellow River Basin, the overall goal of this paper is to examine how the irrigation management reform has proceeded since the early 2000s and what the impacts are of the incentive mechanisms on water use and crop yields. The results show that after the early 2000s, irrigation management reform has accelerated. Different from contracting management, more Water User Associations (WUAs) chose not to establish incentive mechanisms. The econometric model results indicate that using incentive mechanisms to promote water savings is effective under the arrangement of contracting management and not effective under WUAs. However, if incentives are provided to the contracting managers, the wheat yield declines significantly. Our results imply that at the later stage of the reform, the cost of reducing water use by providing incentives to managers includes negative impacts on some crop yields. Therefore, how to design win-win supporting policies to ensure the healthy development of the irrigation management reform should be highly addressed by policy makers.

  20. Addressing the Need for Independence in the CSE Model

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Ferragut, Erik M; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Information system security risk, defined as the product of the monetary losses associated with security incidents and the probability that they occur, is a suitable decision criterion when considering different information system architectures. Risk assessment is the widely accepted process used to understand, quantify, and document the effects of undesirable events on organizational objectives so that risk management, continuity of operations planning, and contingency planning can be performed. One technique, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES), is a methodology for estimating security costs to stakeholders as a function of possible risk postures. In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain, as a result of security breakdowns. Additional work has applied CSES to specific business cases. The current state-of-the-art of CSES addresses independent events. In typical usage, analysts create matrices that capture their expert opinion, and then use those matrices to quantify costs to stakeholders. This expansion generalizes CSES to the common real-world case where events may be dependent.

  1. Effects of government incentives on wind innovation in the United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horner, Nathaniel; Azevedo, Inês; Hounshell, David

    2013-12-01

    In the United States, as elsewhere, state and federal governments have considered or implemented a range of policies to create more sustainable energy generation systems in response to concerns over climate change, security of fuel supply, and environmental impacts. These policies include both regulatory instruments such as renewable portfolio standards (RPSs) and market incentives such as tax credits. While these policies are primarily geared towards increasing renewable generation capacity, they can indirectly affect innovation in associated technologies through a ‘demand-pull’ dynamic. Other policies, such as public research and development (R&D) funding, directly incentivize innovation through ‘technology-push’ means. In this letter, we examine these effects on innovation in the United States wind energy industry. We estimate a set of econometric models relating a set of US federal and state policies to patenting activity in wind technologies over the period 1974-2009. We find that RPS policies have had significant positive effects on wind innovation, whereas tax-based incentives have not been particularly effective. We also find evidence that the effects of RPS incentives differ between states. Finally, we find that public R&D funding can be a significant driver of wind innovation, though its effect in the US has been modest.

  2. Exploring spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem-service values and hotspots in China.

    PubMed

    Li, Guangdong; Fang, Chuanglin; Wang, Shaojian

    2016-03-01

    Although ecosystems are valuable, they have been allowed to deteriorate globally in recent decades. However, the spatiotemporal changes in ecosystem-service values (ESVs) and their hotspots in China are not well understood. Here, long-term land-cover data, the spatial analysis method and an econometric analysis model were used to examine these changes. The results indicate that the total terrestrial ESV decreased from US$2398.31 billion in 1990 to US$2347.56 billion in 2010 (converted to 2009 dollar values), which provides strong evidence for the tendency of ecosystems in China to deteriorate over time, albeit slightly. We also found that the changes in ESVs had significant spatial heterogeneity. Our analysis showed that the relationship between ESV and gross domestic product (GDP) is generally negative, but this relationship is not always fixed. The Loess Plateau, Guizhou, Hubei, Henan and Xinjiang continually presented concentrated hotspot areas of ESV changes, whereas coastal regions continually presented concentrated cold-spot areas. Overlap analyses and logistic regressions demonstrate that national ecological programs have clear effects on the improvement of ecosystems but that the effectiveness of different policies varies on spatial and temporal scales. The results of this study will support more effective decision-making around the implementation of ecological conservation policies. PMID:26760280

  3. Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.

  4. Economic policy and private investment since the oil crisis: a comparative study of France and Germany

    SciTech Connect

    Artus, P.; Muet, P.A.; Palinkas, P.; Pauly, P.

    1980-10-01

    Present investment equations for private business investment (equipment and structures) in France and Germany are presented. The comparative analysis of properties of estimates and the relative importance of explanatory variables are emphasized. The results are presented of a comparative exercise in cliometrics: selective public policy measures actually taken in France and Germany during the period 1973 to 1978 and analyzed with respect to their efficiency as stabilization policy devices. The comparative study is executed within the framework of two comparable quarterly econometric models for the two countries, METRIC for France and SYSIFO for Germany. The basic theoretical framework for business investment in both models is briefly summarized. Empirical results are presented within the respective partial models, namely, the comparative analysis of economic factors explaining the behavior of business investment over the sample period. The comparative results of policy scenarios are presented to evaluate the role of active economic policy in determining the performance of private investment in France and Germany between 1973 and 1978. (MCW)

  5. Potential impact of Thailand's alcohol program on production, consumption, and trade of cassava, sugarcane, and corn

    SciTech Connect

    Boonserm, P.

    1985-01-01

    On the first of May 1980, Thailand's fuel-alcohol program was announced by the Thai government. According to the program, a target of 147 million liters of ethanol would be produced in 1981, from cassava, sugarcane, and other biomasses. Projecting increases in output each year, the target level of ethanol produciton was set at 482 million liters of ethanol for 1986. The proposed amount of ethanol production could create a major shift up in the demand schedule of energy crops such as cassava, sugarcane, and corn. The extent of the adjustments in price, production, consumption, and exports for these energy crops need to be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential impact of Thailand's fuel-alcohol program on price, production, consumption, and exports of three potential energy crops: cassava, sugarcane, and corn. Econometric commodity models of cassava, sugarcane, and corn are constructed and used as a method of assessment. The overall results of the forecasting simulations of the models indicate that the fuel-alcohol program proposed by the Thai government will cause the price, production, and total consumption of cassava, sugarcane, and corn to increase; on the other hand, it will cause exports to decline. In addition, based on the relative prices and the technical coefficients of ethanol production of these three energy crops, this study concludes that only cassava should be used to produce the proposed target of ethanol production.

  6. Cost-minimizing industry structure for petroleum refining: an application of contestable market theory and multiproduct cost functions

    SciTech Connect

    Shoesmith, G.L.

    1986-01-01

    Since the elimination of crude-oil price controls and the entitlements program in 1980, the US petroleum-refining industry has undergone significant changes in structure and technology. The number of refineries has declined from 303 in January 1981 to 191 in January 1985. Several mergers and acquisitions among major refiners have resulted in some reductions in capacity as plants have been retired or sold to independents. Meanwhile, capital investment in existing refineries has made the US industry much more flexible in terms of handling various grades of crude oil. This research first estimates econometrically the long run cost structure of petroleum refining operations using a translog multiproduct cost function and company refining data from the Financial Reporting System (FRS) maintained by the Energy Information Administration. The principles of contestable market theory are then applied to the estimated cost function to determine the cost minimizing number and size of overall company refining operations. It is determined that the existing structure is not sustainable due to the discrepancy between the optimal and existing industry structures and the fact that firms are not producing where price equals marginal cost for each of the three products: motor gasoline, distillate fuels, and other refined products.

  7. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  8. HIGHLIGHTING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACHES THROUGH AN APPLICATION TO ASSESS MEDICATION ADHERENCE

    PubMed Central

    BORAH, BIJAN J.; BASU, ANIRBAN

    2014-01-01

    The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:23616446

  9. Termination Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bruce McCarl and Dhazngilly

    2004-01-07

    The results of this project include: (1) Development of econometrically estimated marginal abatement and associated production curves describing response of agricultural and forestry emissions/sink/offsets enhancements for use in integrated assessments. Curves were developed that reflected agricultural, and forestry production of traditional commodities, carbon and other greenhouse gas offsets and biofuels given signals of general commodity demand, and carbon and energy prices. (2) Integration of the non-dynamic curves from (1) into a version of the PNNL SGM integrated assessment model was done in cooperation with Dr. Ronald Sands at PNNL. The results were reported at the second DOE conference on sequestration in the paper listed and the abstract is in Annex B of this report. (3) Alternative agricultural sequestration estimates were developed in conjunction with personnel at Colorado State University using CENTURY and analyses can operate under the use of agricultural soil carbon data from either the EPIC or CENTURY models. (4) A major effort was devoted to understanding the possible role and applicable actions from agriculture. (5) Work was done with EPA and EIA to update the biofuel data and assumptions resulting in some now emerging results showing the criticality of biofuel assumptions.

  10. EMF 7 model comparisons: key relationships and parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Hickman, B.G.

    1983-12-01

    A simplified textbook model of aggregate demand and supply interprets the similarities and differences in the price and income responses of the various EMF 7 models to oil and policy shocks. The simplified model is a marriage of Hicks' classic IS-LM formulation of the Keynesian theory of effective demand with a rudimentary model of aggregate supply, combining a structural Phillips curve for wage determination and a markup theory of price determination. The reduced-form income equation from the fix-price IS-LM model is used to define an aggregate demand (AD) locus in P-Y space, showing alternative pairs of the implicit GNP deflator and real GNP which would simultaneously satisfy the saving-investment identity and the condition for money market equilibrium. An aggregate supply (AS) schedule is derived by a similar reduction of relations between output and labor demand, unemployment and wage inflation, and the wage-price-productivity nexus governing markup pricing. Given a particular econometric model it is possible to derive IS and LM curves algebraically. The resulting locuses would show alternative combinations of interest rate and real income which equilibrate real income identity on the IS side and the demand and supply of money on the LM side. By further substitution the reduced form fix-price income relation could be obtained for direct quantification of the AD locus. The AS schedule is obtainable by algebraic reduction of the structural supply side equations.

  11. Cell lineage tracing in the developing enteric nervous system: superstars revealed by experiment and simulation

    PubMed Central

    Cheeseman, Bevan L.; Zhang, Dongcheng; Binder, Benjamin J.; Newgreen, Donald F.; Landman, Kerry A.

    2014-01-01

    Cell lineage tracing is a powerful tool for understanding how proliferation and differentiation of individual cells contribute to population behaviour. In the developing enteric nervous system (ENS), enteric neural crest (ENC) cells move and undergo massive population expansion by cell division within self-growing mesenchymal tissue. We show that single ENC cells labelled to follow clonality in the intestine reveal extraordinary and unpredictable variation in number and position of descendant cells, even though ENS development is highly predictable at the population level. We use an agent-based model to simulate ENC colonization and obtain agent lineage tracing data, which we analyse using econometric data analysis tools. In all realizations, a small proportion of identical initial agents accounts for a substantial proportion of the total final agent population. We term these individuals superstars. Their existence is consistent across individual realizations and is robust to changes in model parameters. This inequality of outcome is amplified at elevated proliferation rate. The experiments and model suggest that stochastic competition for resources is an important concept when understanding biological processes which feature high levels of cell proliferation. The results have implications for cell-fate processes in the ENS. PMID:24501272

  12. Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States

    PubMed Central

    Manson, Steven M.; Evans, Tom

    2007-01-01

    We combine mixed-methods research with integrated agent-based modeling to understand land change and economic decision making in the United States and Mexico. This work demonstrates how sustainability science benefits from combining integrated agent-based modeling (which blends methods from the social, ecological, and information sciences) and mixed-methods research (which interleaves multiple approaches ranging from qualitative field research to quantitative laboratory experiments and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery). We test assumptions of utility-maximizing behavior in household-level landscape management in south-central Indiana, linking parcel data, land cover derived from aerial photography, and findings from laboratory experiments. We examine the role of uncertainty and limited information, preferences, differential demographic attributes, and past experience and future time horizons. We also use evolutionary programming to represent bounded rationality in agriculturalist households in the southern Yucatán of Mexico. This approach captures realistic rule of thumb strategies while identifying social and environmental factors in a manner similar to econometric models. These case studies highlight the role of computational models of decision making in land-change contexts and advance our understanding of decision making in general. PMID:18093928

  13. An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Houde, Jean-Francois

    In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

  14. Now or later? Understanding the etiologic period of suicide

    PubMed Central

    Vandoros, Sotiris; Kavetsos, Georgios

    2015-01-01

    Previous research shows that the announcement of austerity measures leads to an immediate and short-lived increase in behaviour that demonstrates anxiety, stress, frustration and other mental effects. This paper uses evidence from the same natural experiment to study whether, for a given decision to commit suicide (as documented by the overall increase over the study period), suicides follow immediately after the announcement of austerity measures in Greece; or whether this is an effect that matures in peoples' minds before being transformed into action. We use evidence from a natural experiment and follow an econometric approach. Our findings show that, despite an overall sharp increase in suicides over the study period, the increase does not follow immediately in the first few days after each such negative event. This suggests that suicides are not spontaneous. They are rather decisions that take time to mature. This time lag implies that suicides arguably attributed to recessions are, in principle, preventable and underlines the importance of mental health services. PMID:26844154

  15. Discrete choice experiments in health economics: a review of the literature.

    PubMed

    de Bekker-Grob, Esther W; Ryan, Mandy; Gerard, Karen

    2012-02-01

    Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) have become a commonly used instrument in health economics. This paper updates a review of published papers between 1990 and 2000 for the years 2001-2008. Based on this previous review, and a number of other key review papers, focus is given to three issues: experimental design; estimation procedures; and validity of responses. Consideration is also given to how DCEs are applied and reported. We identified 114 DCEs, covering a wide range of policy questions. Applications took place in a broader range of health-care systems, and there has been a move to incorporating fewer attributes, more choices and interview-based surveys. There has also been a shift towards statistically more efficient designs and flexible econometric models. The reporting of monetary values continues to be popular, the use of utility scores has not gained popularity, and there has been an increasing use of odds ratios and probabilities. The latter are likely to be useful at the policy level to investigate take-up and acceptability of new interventions. Incorporation of interactions terms in the design and analysis of DCEs, explanations of risk, tests of external validity and incorporation of DCE results into a decision-making framework remain important areas for future research. PMID:22223558

  16. Effects of the Premier Hospital Quality Incentive Demonstration on Medicare Patient Mortality and Cost

    PubMed Central

    Ryan, Andrew M

    2009-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the effects of the Premier Inc. and Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Hospital Quality Incentive Demonstration (PHQID), a public quality reporting and pay-for-performance (P4P) program, on Medicare patient mortality, cost, and outlier classification. Data Sources The 2000–2006 Medicare inpatient claims, Medicare denominator files, and Medicare Provider of Service files. Study Design Panel data econometric methods are applied to a retrospective cohort of 11,232,452 admissions from 6,713,928 patients with principal diagnoses of acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, pneumonia, or a coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) procedure from 3,570 acute care hospitals between 2000 and 2006. Three estimators are used to evaluate the effects of the PHQID on risk-adjusted (RA) mortality, cost, and outlier classification in the presence of unobserved selection, resulting from the PHQID being voluntary: fixed effects (FE), FE estimated in the subset of hospitals eligible for the PHQID, and difference-in-difference-in-differences. Data Extraction Methods Data were obtained from CMS. Principal Findings This analysis found no evidence that the PHQID had a significant effect on RA 30-day mortality or RA 60-day cost for AMI, heart failure, pneumonia, or CABG and weak evidence that the PHQID increased RA outlier classification for heart failure and pneumonia. Conclusions By not reducing mortality or cost growth, this study suggests that the PHQID has made little impact on the value of inpatient care purchased by Medicare. PMID:19674427

  17. Managing Complex IT Security Processes with Value Based Measures

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Current trends indicate that IT security measures will need to greatly expand to counter the ever increasingly sophisticated, well-funded and/or economically motivated threat space. Traditional risk management approaches provide an effective method for guiding courses of action for assessment, and mitigation investments. However, such approaches no matter how popular demand very detailed knowledge about the IT security domain and the enterprise/cyber architectural context. Typically, the critical nature and/or high stakes require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach that provides reliable and consistent methods for rating vulnerabilities. As reported in earlier works, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System provides a comprehensive measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. This paper advocates a dependability measure that acknowledges the aggregate structure of complex system specifications, and accounts for variations by stakeholder, by specification components, and by verification and validation impact.

  18. The Impact of The Fractal Paradigm on Geography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    De Cola, L.

    2001-12-01

    Being itself somewhat fractal, Benoit Mandelbrot's magnum opus THE FRACTAL GEOMETRY OF NATURE may be deconstructed in many ways, including geometrically, systematically, and epistemologically. Viewed as a work of geography it may be used to organize the major topics of interest to scientists preoccupied with the understanding of real-world space in astronomy, geology, meteorology, hydrology, and biology. We shall use it to highlight such recent geographic accomplishments as automated feature detection, understanding urban growth, and modeling the spread of disease in space and time. However, several key challenges remain unsolved, among them: 1. It is still not possible to move continuously from one map scale to another so that objects change their dimension smoothly. I.e. as a viewer zooms in on a map the zero-dimensional location of a city should gradually become a 2-dimensional polygon, then a network of 1-dimensional streets, then 3-dimensional buildings, etc. 2. Spatial autocorrelation continues to be regarded more as an econometric challenge than as a problem of scaling. Similarities of values among closely-spaced observation is not so much a problem to be overcome as a source of information about spatial structure. 3. Although the fractal paradigm is a powerful model for data analysis, its ideas and techniques need to be brought to bear on the problems of understanding such hierarchies as ecosystems (the flow networks of energy and matter), taxonomies (biological classification), and knowledge (hierarchies of bureaucratic information, networks of linked data, etc).

  19. Coping with increasing water and land resources limitation for meeting world's food needs: the role of virtual water and virtual land trade

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soriano, Barbara; Garrido, Alberto; Novo, Paula

    2013-04-01

    Increasing pressure to expand agriculture production is giving rise to renewed interest to obtain access to land and water resources in the world. Water footprint evaluations show the importance of green water in global food trade and production. Green water and land are almost inseparable resources. In this work we analyse the role of foreign direct investment and cooperation programmes from developed countries in developing counties, focusing on virtual water trade and associated resources. We develop econometric models with the aim to explain observed trends in virtual water exports from developing countries as explained by the inverse flow of investments and cooperation programmes. We analyse the main 19 emerging food exporters, from Africa, Asia and America, using 15 years of data. Results show that land per capita availability and foreign direct investments explain observed flows of virtual water exports. However, there is no causality with these and flows cooperation investments. Our analysis sheds light on the underlying forces explaining the phenomenon of land grab, which is the appropriation of land access in developing countries by food-importers.

  20. Do Executives' Backgrounds Matter to IPO Investors? Evidence from the Life Science Industry

    PubMed Central

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds. PMID:23690920

  1. Random effects specifications in eigenvector spatial filtering: a simulation study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Daisuke; Griffith, Daniel A.

    2015-10-01

    Eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) is becoming a popular way to address spatial dependence. Recently, a random effects specification of ESF (RE-ESF) is receiving considerable attention because of its usefulness for spatial dependence analysis considering spatial confounding. The objective of this study was to analyze theoretical properties of RE-ESF and extend it to overcome some of its disadvantages. We first compare the properties of RE-ESF and ESF with geostatistical and spatial econometric models. There, we suggest two major disadvantages of RE-ESF: it is specific to its selected spatial connectivity structure, and while the current form of RE-ESF eliminates the spatial dependence component confounding with explanatory variables to stabilize the parameter estimation, the elimination can yield biased estimates. RE-ESF is extended to cope with these two problems. A computationally efficient residual maximum likelihood estimation is developed for the extended model. Effectiveness of the extended RE-ESF is examined by a comparative Monte Carlo simulation. The main findings of this simulation are as follows: Our extension successfully reduces errors in parameter estimates; in many cases, parameter estimates of our RE-ESF are more accurate than other ESF models; the elimination of the spatial component confounding with explanatory variables results in biased parameter estimates; efficiency of an accuracy maximization-based conventional ESF is comparable to RE-ESF in many cases.

  2. Modeling Mode Choice Behavior Incorporating Household and Individual Sociodemographics and Travel Attributes Based on Rough Sets Theory

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

  3. Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters.

    PubMed

    Frey, Bruno S; Savage, David A; Torgler, Benno

    2010-03-16

    To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo economicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 min, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominated behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 h, 40 min), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to reemerge. Maritime disasters are traditionally not analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions provides insight into how widely human behavior can vary, depending on differing external conditions. PMID:20194743

  4. The impact of energy prices on technology choice in the United States steel industry

    SciTech Connect

    Boyd, G.A. ); Karlson, S.H. )

    1993-01-01

    In the last 30 years, US steel producers have replaced their aging open hearth steel furnaces with basic oxygen (BOF) or large electric arc furnaces (LEF). This choice of technology creates the opportunity to substitute electricity for fossil fuels. The authors extend earlier research to investigate whether energy prices affect this type of technology adoption. The econometric model uses the [open quotes]seemingly unrelated Tobit[close quotes] method to capture the effects of the industry's experience with both technologies, technical change, and potential cost reductions, as well as energy prices, on adoption. When they include the prices of electricity and coking coal as explanatory variables, the four energy price coefficients have the signs predicted by the law of demand, but the magnitude of the coefficients is such that the non-price terms are more important, e.g. a 50% increase in electricity prices would delay LEF adoption by only 12 days. The results suggest that the adoption of LEF represents a form of major process technical change (factor biased - electricity using), rather than a price-induced technological innovation. 19 refs., 1 tab.

  5. Analyzing the Social Factors That Influence Willingness to Pay for Invasive Alien Species Management Under Two Different Strategies: Eradication and Prevention

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García-Llorente, Marina; Martín-López, Berta; Nunes, Paulo A. L. D.; González, José A.; Alcorlo, Paloma; Montes, Carlos

    2011-09-01

    Biological invasions occur worldwide, and have been the object of ecological and socio-economic research for decades. However, the manner in which different stakeholder groups identify the problems associated with invasive species and confront invasive species management under different policies remains poorly understood. In this study, we conducted an econometric analysis of the social factors influencing willingness to pay for invasive alien species management under two different regimes: eradication and prevention in the Doñana Natural Protected Area (SW Spain). Controlling for the participation of local residents, tourists and conservationists, email and face-to-face questionnaires were conducted. Results indicated that respondents were more willing to pay for eradication than prevention; and public support for invasive alien species management was influenced by an individual's knowledge and perception of invasive alien species, active interest in nature, and socio-demographic attributes. We concluded that invasive alien species management research should confront the challenges to engage stakeholders and accept any tradeoffs necessary to modify different conservation policies to ensure effective management is implemented. Finally, our willingness to pay estimates suggest the Department of Environment of Andalusian Government has suitable social support to meet the budgetary expenditures required for invasive alien species plans and adequate resources to justify an increase in the invasive alien species management budget.

  6. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on heat rates for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W. ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights the heat rate results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. In the study, techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effects of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects on heat rate vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. For subcritical units, heat rates increase at a decreasing rate as the unit gets older. The increase became greater as the psi of the unit went down. For supercritical units, heat rates initially improve (i.e., go down), although at a decreasing rate, until age 14. After age 14, heat rates start to increase, at an increasing rate, finally reaching their startling levels by age 20. By age 26, heat rates have increased over starting values by 529 Btu/kWh. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  7. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) and EAF (equivalent availability factor) for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.; South, D.W.; Stokes, H.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. Techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. In the first 28 years of operation, it was determined that EFOR deteriorates by 8--9 percentage points due to age, without life extension/plant betterment programs. Improvement in EFOR after age 28 is attributable to a shift in duty cycle (baseload to cycling). The results of EAF with respect to age are similar to those found for EFOR. After an initial improvement, EAF deteriorates by 5--15 percentage points by age 18, depending on steam pressure. 2 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) and EAF (equivalent availability factor) for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights results from Phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. Techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. In the first 28 years of operation, it was determined that EFOR deteriorates by 8--9% points due to age, without life extension/plant betterment programs. Improvement in EFOR after age 28 is attributable to a shift in duty cycle (baseload to cycling). The results of EAF with respect to age are similar to those found for EFOR. After an initial improvement, EAF deteriorates by 5--15% points by age 18, depending on steam pressure. 1 ref., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  9. The effect of generating unit age on the cost and performance of US fossil-fired steam units

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.; Stokes, H.H.; South, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of Phase 1 of this study is to quantify the effect of age on the performance of coal-fired units in the absence of life extension/betterment programs (i.e., beyond normal maintenance). Time-series cross-sectional unit-level data for the period 1964--1987 were used to estimate regressions relating the effect of age on equivalent forced-outage rate (EFOR), equivalent availability forced (EAF), and heat rate (HR). A sample of electric generating units representing about two-thirds of total US coal capacity in 1987 provided the basis for the regressions. The sample included roughly 570 subcritical units accounting for 5600 unit-years and 150 gigawatts (GW) and 100 supercritical units accounting for 1000 unit-years and 70 GW. An important feature of the study was to develop one model for both subcritical and supercritical units to control for various operating and design characteristics, and to profile the aging pattern of these units. The econometric models developed controlled for the effects of: age, capacity, design vintage or generation of design, boiler and furnace design, rest-of-plant design, coal quality, duty cycle, and life extension and plant betterment investments. The impact of life extension and plant betterment investments on the aging effect was controlled by identifying when their effect on operations and maintenance expenditures increased and by terminating the time-series analysis in that year. 6 refs., 8 figs., 12 tabs.

  10. Hybrid Support Vector Regression and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models Improved by Particle Swarm Optimization for Property Crime Rates Forecasting with Economic Indicators

    PubMed Central

    Alwee, Razana; Hj Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models. PMID:23766729

  11. Radiation Therapy Resources and Guideline-Concordant Radiotherapy for Early-Stage Breast Cancer Patients in an Underserved Region

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Nengliang; Matthews, Stephen A; Hillemeier, Marianne M; Anderson, Roger T

    2013-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between radiation therapy resources and guideline-concordant radiotherapy after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) in Kentucky. Data Sources The SEER registry and Area Resource File provided county-level data describing cancer care resources and socioeconomic conditions of Kentucky residents. Study Design The outcome variable was rate of BCS without radiotherapy in each county for 2000–2007. Eight-year weighted average rates of radiation therapy providers and hospitals per 100,000 residents were explanatory variables of interest. Exploratory spatial data analyses and spatial econometric models were estimated. Principal Findings Appalachian counties in Kentucky had significantly fewer radiation oncologists, hospitals with radiation therapy facilities, and surgeons per 100,000 residents than non-Appalachian counties. The likelihood of BCS without radiation was significantly higher among Appalachian compared to non-Appalachian women (42.5 percent vs. 29.0 percent, p < .001). Higher proportions of women not receiving recommended radiotherapy after BCS were clustered in Eastern Kentucky around Lexington. This geographic disparity was partially explained by significantly fewer radiation therapy facilities in Appalachian Kentucky in adjusted analyses. Conclusions Scarce radiation therapy resources in Appalachian Kentucky are associated with disparities in receipt of guideline-concordant radiotherapy, suggesting that policy action is needed to improve the cancer treatment infrastructure in disadvantaged mountainous areas. PMID:23445478

  12. Cheaper faster drug development validated by the repositioning of drugs against neglected tropical diseases.

    PubMed

    Williams, Kevin; Bilsland, Elizabeth; Sparkes, Andrew; Aubrey, Wayne; Young, Michael; Soldatova, Larisa N; De Grave, Kurt; Ramon, Jan; de Clare, Michaela; Sirawaraporn, Worachart; Oliver, Stephen G; King, Ross D

    2015-03-01

    There is an urgent need to make drug discovery cheaper and faster. This will enable the development of treatments for diseases currently neglected for economic reasons, such as tropical and orphan diseases, and generally increase the supply of new drugs. Here, we report the Robot Scientist 'Eve' designed to make drug discovery more economical. A Robot Scientist is a laboratory automation system that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to discover scientific knowledge through cycles of experimentation. Eve integrates and automates library-screening, hit-confirmation, and lead generation through cycles of quantitative structure activity relationship learning and testing. Using econometric modelling we demonstrate that the use of AI to select compounds economically outperforms standard drug screening. For further efficiency Eve uses a standardized form of assay to compute Boolean functions of compound properties. These assays can be quickly and cheaply engineered using synthetic biology, enabling more targets to be assayed for a given budget. Eve has repositioned several drugs against specific targets in parasites that cause tropical diseases. One validated discovery is that the anti-cancer compound TNP-470 is a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase from the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax. PMID:25652463

  13. Cheaper faster drug development validated by the repositioning of drugs against neglected tropical diseases

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Kevin; Bilsland, Elizabeth; Sparkes, Andrew; Aubrey, Wayne; Young, Michael; Soldatova, Larisa N.; De Grave, Kurt; Ramon, Jan; de Clare, Michaela; Sirawaraporn, Worachart; Oliver, Stephen G.; King, Ross D.

    2015-01-01

    There is an urgent need to make drug discovery cheaper and faster. This will enable the development of treatments for diseases currently neglected for economic reasons, such as tropical and orphan diseases, and generally increase the supply of new drugs. Here, we report the Robot Scientist ‘Eve’ designed to make drug discovery more economical. A Robot Scientist is a laboratory automation system that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to discover scientific knowledge through cycles of experimentation. Eve integrates and automates library-screening, hit-confirmation, and lead generation through cycles of quantitative structure activity relationship learning and testing. Using econometric modelling we demonstrate that the use of AI to select compounds economically outperforms standard drug screening. For further efficiency Eve uses a standardized form of assay to compute Boolean functions of compound properties. These assays can be quickly and cheaply engineered using synthetic biology, enabling more targets to be assayed for a given budget. Eve has repositioned several drugs against specific targets in parasites that cause tropical diseases. One validated discovery is that the anti-cancer compound TNP-470 is a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase from the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax. PMID:25652463

  14. An analysis of consumer demand for fruits in Sri Lanka. 1981-2010.

    PubMed

    Weerahewa, Jeevika; Rajapakse, Chamila; Pushpakumara, Gamini

    2013-01-01

    Micronutrient deficiency has become a serious health concern in many countries and Sri Lanka is no exception. Inclusion of vegetables and fruits, which are rich in micronutrients, in the diet is considered as one of the most cost effective measures to alleviate such deficiencies. The purpose of this paper is to analyze consumer demand for fruits in Sri Lanka. The specific objectives are to: (i) describe the patterns of fruit consumption across various households groups (ii) document the changes that have taken place in the local fruit supply for meeting the changes in demand, and (iii) to estimate price and income effects of changes in fruit consumption during 1981-2010. The study was conducted using secondary data which were extracted from government publications. The analysis shows that banana, papaw, mangoes and pineapple are the major fruits consumed and the consumption levels of such fruits have been rising over the years. The urban households and the households in high-income deciles are found to be allocating a relatively higher proportion of their food expenditure on fruits. The country is self sufficient in most of the fruits and only a small portion is traded. The results of econometric estimations reveal large income effects and relatively small price effects. A larger role for income based interventions as opposed to price based interventions to improve fruit consumption in Sri Lanka is evident from the results. PMID:23036284

  15. Volatility and Uncertainty in Environmental Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maniloff, Peter Taylor

    Environmental policy is increasingly implemented via market mechanisms. While this is in many ways a great success for the economics profession, a number of questions remain. In this dissertation, I empirically explore the question of what will happen as environmental outcomes are coupled to potentially volatile market phenomena, whether policies can insulate environmental outcomes and market shocks, and policymakers should act to mitigate such volatility. I use a variety of empirical methods including reduced form and structural econometrics as well as theoretical models to consider a variety of policy, market, and institutional contexts. The effectiveness of market interventions depends on the context and on the policy mechanism. In particular, energy markets are characterized by low demand elasticities and kinked supply curves which are very flat below a capacity constraint (elastic) and very steep above it (inelastic). This means that a quantity-based policy that acts on demand, such as releasing additional pollution emission allowances from a reserved fund would be an effective way to constrain price shocks in a cap-and-trade system. However, a quantity-based policy that lowers the need for inframarginal supply, such as using ethanol as an oil product substitute to mitigate oil shocks, would be ineffective. Similarly, the benefits of such interventions depends on the macroeconomic impacts of price shocks from the sector. Relatedly, I show that a liability rule designed to reduce risk from low-probability, high-consequence oil spills have very low compliance costs.

  16. Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

    PubMed

    Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models. PMID:23766729

  17. An empirical investigation of the efficiency effects of integrated care models in Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Reich, Oliver; Rapold, Roland; Flatscher-Thöni, Magdalena

    2012-01-01

    Introduction This study investigates the efficiency gains of integrated care models in Switzerland, since these models are regarded as cost containment options in national social health insurance. These plans generate much lower average health care expenditure than the basic insurance plan. The question is, however, to what extent these total savings are due to the effects of selection and efficiency. Methods The empirical analysis is based on data from 399,274 Swiss residents that constantly had compulsory health insurance with the Helsana Group, the largest health insurer in Switzerland, covering the years 2006–2009. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the different integrated care models, we apply an econometric approach with a mixed-effects model. Results Our estimations indicate that the efficiency effects of integrated care models on health care expenditure are significant. However, the different insurance plans vary, revealing the following efficiency gains per model: contracted capitated model 21.2%, contracted non-capitated model 15.5% and telemedicine model 3.7%. The remaining 8.5%, 5.6% and 22.5%, respectively, of the variation in total health care expenditure can be attributed to the effects of selection. Conclusions Integrated care models have the potential to improve care for patients with chronic diseases and concurrently have a positive impact on health care expenditure. We suggest policy-makers improve the incentives for patients with chronic diseases within the existing regulations providing further potential for cost-efficiency of medical care. PMID:22371691

  18. Energy and agriculture in the Haitian economy: A computable general equilibrium model

    SciTech Connect

    Jones, D.W.; Wu, M.T.C.; Das, S.; Cohn, S.M.

    1988-02-01

    This report documents a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the economy of Haiti, emphasizing energy use in agriculture. CGE models compare favorably with econometric models for developing countries in terms of their ability to take advantage of available data. The model of Haiti contains ten production sectors: manufacturing, services, transportation, electricity, rice, coffee, sugar cane, sugar refining, general agriculture, and fuelwood and charcoal. All production functions use functional forms which permit factor substitution. Consumption is specified for three income categories of consumers and a government sector with a linear expenditure system (LES) of demand equations. The economy exports four categories of products and imports six. Balanced trade and capital accounts are required for equilibrium. Total sectoral allocations of land, labor and capital are constrained to equal the quantities of these inputs in the Haitian economy as of the early 1980s. The model can be used to study the consequences of fiscal and trade policies and sectorally oriented productivity improvement policies. Guidance is offered regarding how to use the model to study economic growth and technological change. Limitations of the mode are also pointed out as well as user strategies which can lessen or work around some of those limitations. 19 refs.

  19. Quantifying effects of abiotic and biotic drivers on community dynamics with multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models.

    PubMed

    Hampton, Stephanie E; Holmes, Elizabeth E; Scheef, Lindsay P; Scheuerell, Mark D; Katz, Stephen L; Pendleton, Daniel E; Ward, Eric J

    2013-12-01

    Long-term ecological data sets present opportunities for identifying drivers of community dynamics and quantifying their effects through time series analysis. Multivariate autoregressive (MAR) models are well known in many other disciplines, such as econometrics, but widespread adoption of MAR methods in ecology and natural resource management has been much slower despite some widely cited ecological examples. Here we review previous ecological applications of MAR models and highlight their ability to identify abiotic and biotic drivers of population dynamics, as well as community-level stability metrics, from long-term empirical observations. Thus far, MAR models have been used mainly with data from freshwater plankton communities; we examine the obstacles that may be hindering adoption in other systems and suggest practical modifications that will improve MAR models for broader application. Many of these modifications are already well known in other fields in which MAR models are common, although they are frequently described under different names. In an effort to make MAR models more accessible to ecologists, we include a worked example using recently developed R packages (MAR1 and MARSS), freely available and open-access software. PMID:24597213

  20. Longitudinal Predictors of Institutionalization in Old Age

    PubMed Central

    Hajek, André; Brettschneider, Christian; Lange, Carolin; Posselt, Tina; Wiese, Birgitt; Steinmann, Susanne; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Stein, Janine; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Wagner, Michael; Jessen, Frank; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Objective To investigate time-dependent predictors of institutionalization in old age using a longitudinal approach. Methods In a representative survey of the German general population aged 75 years and older predictors of institutionalization were observed every 1.5 years over six waves. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions (with 201 individuals and 960 observations) were performed to estimate the effects of marital status, depression, dementia, and physical impairments (mobility, hearing and visual impairments) on the risk of admission to old-age home or nursing home. By exploiting the longitudinal data structure using panel econometric models, we were able to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as genetic predisposition and personality traits. Results The probability of institutionalization increased significantly with occurrence of widowhood, depression, dementia, as well as walking and hearing impairments. In particular, the occurrence of widowhood (OR = 78.3), dementia (OR = 154.1) and substantial mobility impairment (OR = 36.7) were strongly associated with institutionalization. Conclusion Findings underline the strong influence of loss of spouse as well as dementia on institutionalization. This is relevant as the number of old people (a) living alone and (b) suffering from dementia is expected to increase rapidly in the next decades. Consequently, it is supposed that the demand for institutionalization among the elderly will increase considerably. Practitioners as well as policy makers should be aware of these upcoming challenges. PMID:26658776