Science.gov

Sample records for econometrics

  1. Three essays on econometrics

    E-print Network

    Lee, Joonhwan

    2014-01-01

    This thesis consists of three chapters that cover separate topics in econometrics. The first chapter demonstrate a negative result on the asymptotic sizes of subset Anderson- Rubin tests with weakly identified nuisance ...

  2. An introduction to financial econometrics Jianqing Fan

    E-print Network

    Fan, Jianqing

    management, testing financial economics theory, capital asset pricing, derivative pricing, portfolio, proprietary trading, financial consulting and risk management. Financial econometrics is an active fieldAn introduction to financial econometrics Jianqing Fan Department of Operation Research

  3. 14.32 Econometrics, Spring 2003

    E-print Network

    Angrist, Joshua David

    Introduction to econometric models and techniques, emphasizing regression. Advanced topics include instrumental variables, panel data methods, measurement error, and limited dependent variable models. Includes problem sets. ...

  4. Essays on identification and semiparametric econometrics

    E-print Network

    Schrimpf, Paul

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation is a collection of three independent essays in theoretical and applied econometrics. The first chapter analyzes dynamic games with continuous states and controls. There are two main contributions. First, ...

  5. Essays in econometrics and random matrix theory

    E-print Network

    Harding, Matthew C

    2007-01-01

    This dissertation develops new econometric procedures for the analysis of high-dimensional datasets commonly encountered in finance, macroeconomics or industrial organization. First, I show that traditional approaches to ...

  6. THE TJALLING C+ KOOPMANS ECONOMETRIC THEORY PRIZE: 19941996

    E-print Network

    Davis, Richard A.

    THE TJALLING C+ KOOPMANS ECONOMETRIC THEORY PRIZE: 1994­1996 Econometric Theory is proud to announce the winning article for theTjalling C+ Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize over the period 1994+ Truus Koopmans+ It is named in honor of Tjalling C+ Koopmans, the 1975 Nobel Laureate in Economic

  7. Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Hara, Michael E.

    2014-01-01

    Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

  8. RANDOM SETS IN FINANCE AND ECONOMETRICS Ilya Molchanov

    E-print Network

    Molchanov, Ilya

    1 RANDOM SETS IN FINANCE AND ECONOMETRICS Ilya Molchanov Department of Mathematical Statistics several examples where random sets appear in math- ematical finance and econometrics: trading as for one person who has lost on a 1000 pounds stake. In finance this effect is widely used in diversifying

  9. Nonparametric estimation of econometric models with categorical variables 

    E-print Network

    Ouyang, Desheng

    2006-10-30

    In this dissertation I investigate several topics in the field of nonparametric econometrics. In chapter II, we consider the problem of estimating a nonparametric regression model with only categorical regressors. We investigate the theoretical...

  10. Essays on medical care using Semiparametric and structural econometrics

    E-print Network

    Kowalski, Amanda

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation consists of an empirical chapter, an econometrics chapter, and a theoretical chapter, all of which advance the study of the price elasticity of expenditure on medical care. In Chapter 1, I estimate the ...

  11. The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

    2012-01-01

    In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

  12. Econometric Estimation of Groundwater Pumping Costs: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanazawa, Mark T.

    1992-06-01

    Recent studies have attempted econometric estimation of the effect of changing groundwater costs on various dimensions of agricultural behavior. These studies assume parametric cost values, ignoring the possibility that marginal pumping costs may be endogenous to the extent of pumping activity. Under the alternative assumption of increasing marginal pumping costs, existing estimates of various elasticities may be suspect due to specification bias. This paper investigates this possibility, modeling a pumping technology based on hydrologic principles which incorporates constant pumping costs as a limiting case. The model also allows for common pool externalities when agents pump groundwater from the same aquifer. The results of the econometric analysis strongly suggest the presence of increasing marginal pumping costs for farmers in our data sample.

  13. Multivariate Skew-t Distributions in Econometrics and Environmetrics 

    E-print Network

    Marchenko, Yulia V.

    2012-02-14

    of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Approved by: Chair of Committee, Marc G. Genton Committee Members, Raymond J. Carroll Mohsen Pourahmadi Kenneth P. Bowman Head of Department, Simon J. Sheather December 2010 Major Subject: Statistics... iii ABSTRACT Multivariate Skew-t Distributions in Econometrics and Environmetrics. (December 2010) Yulia V. Marchenko, Diploma, Belarussian State University, Minsk, Belarus; M.S., Texas A&M University Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Marc G...

  14. December 28, 2000 Draft -Comments Welcome Do not quote without permission For JEP Econometrics Symposium

    E-print Network

    Johnson, Kent

    of California Irvine, CA 92697-5100 Email: dbrownst@uci.edu and Robert Valletta Federal Reserve Bank of San values for econometric estimators and test statistics. The bootstrap and multiple imputations are both in standard econometric software packages, thereby providing a much simpler approach for consistent inference

  15. Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

    PubMed

    DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

    2015-06-01

    Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. PMID:25809022

  16. Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

    PubMed

    Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

    2002-06-15

    This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling. PMID:12804277

  17. A comparison of structural and non-structural econometric models in the Toronto office market

    E-print Network

    Gole, Kimberly

    2014-01-01

    This thesis aims to compare five systems of econometric equations to describe the Toronto office market. It compares four structural systems differing in their demand equations and a non-structural system that does not ...

  18. Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Spring 2015 Professor Robert H. Patrick

    E-print Network

    Advanced Econometrics (26:223:655:01) Spring 2015 Professor Robert H. Patrick Department of Finance, limited dependent and duration models and their application are covered. References: (CT) A. Colin Cameron

  19. Essays on exponential series estimation and application of copulas in financial econometrics 

    E-print Network

    Chui, Chin Man

    2009-05-15

    This dissertation contains three essays. They are related to the exponential series estimation of copulas and the application of parametric copulas in financial econometrics. Chapter II proposes a multivariate exponential ...

  20. The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

  1. Financial Econometrics (29:390:300:50) Fall 2008 Professor Robert H. Patrick

    E-print Network

    , Calculus for Finance, Financial Accounting, or acceptable substitutes). This course is a Finance core of Finance and Economics Rutgers Business School - Newark and New Brunswick Class meets Thursdays 6 majors in Finance and Economics can take Introduction to Econometrics (220:322). References Course

  2. A Spatial Econometric Approach to Measuring Pollution Externalities: An Application to Ozone Smog

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    to analyze air pollution externalities. State-by-state source-receptor transfer coefficients that can be used of the six cri- teria pollutants for which National Ambient Air Quali- ty Standards have been establishedA Spatial Econometric Approach to Measuring Pollution Externalities: An Application to Ozone Smog C

  3. Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ibourk, Aomar

    2013-01-01

    Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

  4. Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

    2010-01-01

    This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

  5. Ghost in the shell : econometric forecast of Singapore's office market and where is architect in financial time

    E-print Network

    Sun, Aoran Alex

    2012-01-01

    Inspired by Singapore's recent effort in building its new skyline in Maria Bay, the thesis intends to employ econometric structural modeling techniques to Singapore's office market for the period from 1975 to 2011. Using ...

  6. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics

    E-print Network

    Angrist, Joshua

    2010-01-01

    Just over a quarter century ago, Edward Leamer (1983) reflected on the state of empirical work in economics. He urged empirical researchers to “take the con out of econometrics” and memorably observed (p. 37): “Hardly ...

  7. An econometric technique to remove unobserved variables that bias the relationship between alcohol and blood pressure.

    PubMed

    Leigh, J P; Berger, M C

    1993-03-01

    We use econometric techniques to consider whether the statistical association between drinking and blood pressure among men may be due, in part, to the constitutional hypothesis. The constitutional hypothesis holds that the same unobserved genetic or personality factors that affect blood pressure will affect the amount of alcohol consumed. Our sample is restricted to men because most investigations for women have revealed a weak to nonexistent positive, and sometimes a negative, association. Data are drawn from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1971-1975. The econometric technique requires fitting three equations using two-stage least squares or multiple regressions. The first equation explains how much people drink. The second and third equations explain fluctuations in systolic and diastolic blood pressures using information on the predicted values of the drinking variable from the first equation. Our results suggest that, after accounting for unobserved constitutional factors as well as other observed covariates such as obesity, salt intake, schooling and so on, the strength of the statistical association between high blood pressure and heavy drinking in men drops only slightly by 8% (diastolic) and 23% (systolic). Thus, a strong statistically significant result remains after removing the unobserved variables bias. PMID:8459717

  8. The Spaces and Places of Food Security: Learning from Spatial, Hierarchical, and Econometric Models in Urban Data-poor Areas

    E-print Network

    Lopez-Carr, David

    The Spaces and Places of Food Security: Learning from Spatial, Hierarchical, and Econometric Models in Urban Data-poor Areas David Lopéz Carra1, Anna Carla Lopéz-Carrb, Laura Grantc, John Weeksb a XXVII IUSSP ­ International Population Conference ­ Busan, Korea - 30 August 2013 Abstract In data poor

  9. First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

    2014-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

  10. The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing Conditions

    E-print Network

    Fisher, Anthony C.

    The Impact of Global Warming on U.S. Agriculture: An Econometric Analysis of Optimal Growing- nomic Research and the Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation at the University of California A relationship between global warming and increased concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO

  11. Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

    PubMed Central

    Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

  12. Econometric Based Modeling of Population Growth under Socio-cultual Constraints

    E-print Network

    Ausloos, Marcel; Herteliu, Claudiu; Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile

    2015-01-01

    There are many constraints on population growth or decay in a country: several are of socio-economic origins. Sometimes cultual constraints also exist: sexual intercourse is banned in various religions, during Nativity and Lent fasting periods. We analyzed data consisting of registered daily birth records for very long (35,429 points) time series and many (24,947,061) babies in Romania between 1905 and 2001 (97 years). The data was obtained from the 1992 and 2002 censuses. We grouped the population into two categories (Eastern Orthodox and Non-Orthodox) in order to distinguish cultual constraints. We performed extensive data analysis in a comparative manner for both groups. From such a long time series data analysis, it seems that the Lent fast has a more drastic effect than the Nativity fast over baby conception within the Eastern Orthodox population, thereby differently increasing the population ratio. Thereafter, we developed and tested econometric models where the dependent variable is the baby conception...

  13. From Physics to Economics: An Econometric Example Using Maximum Relative Entropy

    E-print Network

    Giffin, Adom

    2009-01-01

    Econophysics, is based on the premise that some ideas and methods from physics can be applied to economic situations. We intend to show in this paper how a physics concept such as entropy can be applied to an economic problem. In so doing, we demonstrate how information in the form of observable data and moment constraints are introduced into the method of Maximum relative Entropy (MrE). A general example of updating with data and moments is shown. Two specific econometric examples are solved in detail which can then be used as templates for real world problems. A numerical example is compared to a large deviation solution which illustrates some of the advantages of the MrE method.

  14. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T; Lantz, Margaret W; Hauser, Katie R

    2014-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.

  15. A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

    PubMed

    Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

    2007-09-01

    This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors). PMID:17854577

  16. Job opening: Junior Research Assistant (Statistics/Econometrics) -part time Location: Center for Puerto Rican Studies, Hunter College, City University of New York

    E-print Network

    Qiu, Weigang

    Job opening: Junior Research Assistant (Statistics/Econometrics) - part time Location: Center for Puerto Rican Studies, Hunter College, City University of New of the Director. Qualifications: · Bachelor's degree in economics, statistics, policy

  17. Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Methods Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. Results For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Conclusions Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered. PMID:22413884

  18. Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

    PubMed

    Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

    2009-10-01

    Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas. PMID:19207538

  19. Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

    PubMed Central

    Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

    2014-01-01

    We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

  20. Selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forest trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin-StPaul, N. K.; Ay, J. S.; Guillemot, J.; Doyen, L.; Leadley, P.

    2014-12-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global changes on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of applications on forest trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8km). We also compared the outputs of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM (i.e. Biomod ensemble modelling) in terms of bioclimatic response curves and potential distributions under current climate and climate change scenarios. The shapes of the bioclimatic response curves and the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between SSDM and classical SDMs, with contrasted patterns according to species and spatial resolutions. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distributions that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global changes and refine adaptive management strategies.

  1. Macro-econometric model of the Nigerian economy: a simulated analysis of oil shocks in a development context

    SciTech Connect

    Usip, E.E.E.

    1984-01-01

    The precarious position of Nigeria in being a one-resource (oil) based economy in terms of revenue generation has become a major cause of concern for the experts and political pundits. In this study, the author seeks to explore further the empirical basis for this concern in two stages. First, a macro-econometric model of Nigeria was constructed and evaluated. The model highlights the various channels through which the oil sector influences the rest of the economy. Economic theory, econometric techniques, existing fund of knowledge in the practice, computer simulation, and the institutional framework of Nigeria were brought to bear upon the modeling process. In the second stage, the resulting simulation model was used to examine the sensitivity of the economy to the leading sector (oil) as well as the growth potential of Nigeria up to 1986. The crucial question that was addressed is: will the oil sector be able to support a continuing economic growth of Nigeria in the absence of policy initiatives to diversify the revenue base of the economy. Although the empirical findings are hypothetical, they do have far-reaching implications for Nigeria's growth prospects and political stability.

  2. An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Travaglini, Guido

    2015-09-01

    Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

  3. The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

    2010-01-01

    This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

  4. Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

    2015-06-01

    Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.

  5. An Econometric Analysis of the Elasticity of Vehicle Travel with Respect to Fuel Cost per Mile Using RTEC Survey Data

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Kahn, J.; Gibson, R.

    1999-03-01

    This paper presents the results of econometric estimation of the ''rebound effect'' for household vehicle travel in the United States based on a comprehensive analysis of survey data collected by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) at approximately three-year intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect is defined as the percent change in vehicle travel for a percent change in fuel economy. It summarizes the tendency to ''take back'' potential energy savings due to fuel economy improvements in the form of increased vehicle travel. Separate vehicles use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results are consistent with the consensus of recently published estimates based on national or state-level data, which show a long-run rebound effect of about +0.2 (a ten percent increase in fuel economy, all else equal, would produce roughly a two percent increase in vehicle travel and an eight percent reduction in fuel use). The hypothesis that vehicle travel responds equally to changes in fuel cost-per-mile whether caused by changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon could not be rejected. Recognizing the interdependency in survey data among miles of travel, fuel economy and price paid for fuel for a particular vehicle turns out to be crucial to obtaining meaningful results.

  6. Effects of the R and D tax credit on energy R and D expenditures: an econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Moe, R.J.; Kee, J.R.; Lackey, K.C.; Cronin, F.J.

    1985-02-01

    Objective of the study was to estimate the effects on industrial energy research and development (R and D) expenditures of the R and D Tax Credit component of the Economic Recovery Tax Act of 1981. Two tasks were performed. The first task was to collect data on industrial R and D expenditures, sales, oil prices, and price deflators. The R and D expenditure data were obtained from the National Science Foundation; other data were collected from Commerce Department and Department of Energy publications. The second task was to perform an econometric analysis of the effects of the tax credit on industrial R and D expenditures. Equations relating: (1) total; and (2) energy-related R and D expenditures to sales, oil prices, and a variable representing the availability of the tax credit were estimated, using data for each of seven manufacturing industries and eleven years. The analysis showed that the tax credit caused real total industrial R and D expenditures to be 9.1% greater than they would have been without the credit, but caused real energy industrial R and D expenditures to be 13.8% less than they would have been without the tax credit.

  7. A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2010-01-01

    In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP) in this context.

  8. Accounting for selection bias in species distribution models: An econometric approach on forested trees based on structural modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ay, Jean-Sauveur; Guillemot, Joannès; Martin-StPaul, Nicolas K.; Doyen, Luc; Leadley, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to study and predict the outcome of global change on species. In human dominated ecosystems the presence of a given species is the result of both its ecological suitability and human footprint on nature such as land use choices. Land use choices may thus be responsible for a selection bias in the presence/absence data used in SDM calibration. We present a structural modelling approach (i.e. based on structural equation modelling) that accounts for this selection bias. The new structural species distribution model (SSDM) estimates simultaneously land use choices and species responses to bioclimatic variables. A land use equation based on an econometric model of landowner choices was joined to an equation of species response to bioclimatic variables. SSDM allows the residuals of both equations to be dependent, taking into account the possibility of shared omitted variables and measurement errors. We provide a general description of the statistical theory and a set of application on forested trees over France using databases of climate and forest inventory at different spatial resolution (from 2km to 8 km). We also compared the output of the SSDM with outputs of a classical SDM in term of bioclimatic response curves and potential distribution under current climate. According to the species and the spatial resolution of the calibration dataset, shapes of bioclimatic response curves the modelled species distribution maps differed markedly between the SSDM and classical SDMs. The magnitude and directions of these differences were dependent on the correlations between the errors from both equations and were highest for higher spatial resolutions. A first conclusion is that the use of classical SDMs can potentially lead to strong miss-estimation of the actual and future probability of presence modelled. Beyond this selection bias, the SSDM we propose represents a crucial step to account for economic constraints on tree species distribution that will help to assess the trade-offs and opportunities arising from global change and refine adaptive management strategies.

  9. Essays in Financial Econometrics 

    E-print Network

    Jeong, Dae Hee

    2010-01-14

    aversion clearly lowers relative risk aversion. The elasticity of intertemporal substitution (EIS) is higher than 1, around 1.3-22 with ambiguity aversion, and quite high without ambiguity aversion. The identification of EIS appears to be fairly weak...

  10. Essays in financial econometrics

    E-print Network

    Kocatulum, Emre

    2008-01-01

    Chapter 1 is the product of joint work with Ferhat Akbas and it provides a behavioral explanation for monthly negative serial correlation in stock returns. For the first time in the literature, this work reports that only ...

  11. Applying econometric techniques to hydrological problems in a large basin: Quantifying the rainfall-discharge relationship in the Burdekin, Queensland, Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jarvis, Diane; Stoeckl, Natalie; Chaiechi, Taha

    2013-07-01

    This study seeks to explore the relationship between rainfall and river discharge within a large river basin flowing into the waters surrounding the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), and to investigate the best method of measuring the relationship. This aim is addressed by focusing on three specific research questions: (A) Has there been any evidence that global climate change has impacted on either rainfall or river discharge resulting in any change to the relationship between these variables over time? (B) What is the best measure of rainfall to be used to quantify the rainfall-discharge relationship, including the optimal number of rain stations to be included in the sample? (C) What is the optimal temporal scale for measuring the relationship (ranging from fine scale monthly data, medium scale quarterly data, and coarse scale annual data)? Modern econometric time series techniques are utilised, and compared with results using an alternate technique developed by researchers from the bio-physical sciences; the widely used Thiessen Polygon method. Firstly, stationarity testing, using econometric unit root tests, did not find evidence to suggest that the data are non-stationary. Evidently, climate change has not had a measurable impact on rainfall or river discharge in the region during the period covered by this study. Secondly, the analysis shows that the when dealing with fairly simple models with a fairly small number of explanatory variables, those which best represent the river-discharge relationship are those using the coarser scales (both geographic and temporal). In other words, stronger and more robust results are derived from models using fewer rain stations, and annual data (rather than quarterly or monthly data). This approach provides a viable alternative that may be very useful in data-poor environments when it is not possible to use other more data-hungry modelling approaches. The econometric models provided a better explanation of the relationship than the Thiessen Polygon approach, whilst utilising data from a smaller number of rain stations. The most appropriate functional form was that using the natural logs of discharge as the dependent variable, and the relationship appears to be a fairly simple one, with the inclusion of lagged data from previous years not significantly improving the explanation provided by current year models. The approach demonstrates that simple time series models can be enriched by the incorporation of additional variables beyond rainfall levels; both temperatures and rainfall concentration were considered with the inclusion of a rainfall concentration index proving to significantly improve the explanatory power of the model for this study region.

  12. Overall and income specific effect on prevalence of overweight and obesity of 20% sugar sweetened drink tax in UK: econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Objective To model the overall and income specific effect of a 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks on the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the UK. Design Econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting United Kingdom. Population Adults aged 16 and over. Intervention A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks. Main outcome measures The primary outcomes were the overall and income specific changes in the number and percentage of overweight (body mass index ?25) and obese (?30) adults in the UK following the implementation of the tax. Secondary outcomes were the effect by age group (16-29, 30-49, and ?50 years) and by UK constituent country. The revenue generated from the tax and the income specific changes in weekly expenditure on drinks were also estimated. Results A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks was estimated to reduce the number of obese adults in the UK by 1.3% (95% credible interval 0.8% to 1.7%) or 180?000 (110?000 to 247?000) people and the number who are overweight by 0.9% (0.6% to 1.1%) or 285?000 (201?000 to 364?000) people. The predicted reductions in prevalence of obesity for income thirds 1 (lowest income), 2, and 3 (highest income) were 1.3% (0.3% to 2.0%), 0.9% (0.1% to 1.6%), and 2.1% (1.3% to 2.9%). The effect on obesity declined with age. Predicted annual revenue was £276m (£272m to £279m), with estimated increases in total expenditure on drinks for income thirds 1, 2, and 3 of 2.1% (1.4% to 3.0%), 1.7% (1.2% to 2.2%), and 0.8% (0.4% to 1.2%). Conclusions A 20% tax on sugar sweetened drinks would lead to a reduction in the prevalence of obesity in the UK of 1.3% (around 180?000 people). The greatest effects may occur in young people, with no significant differences between income groups. Both effects warrant further exploration. Taxation of sugar sweetened drinks is a promising population measure to target population obesity, particularly among younger adults. PMID:24179043

  13. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for themore »criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.« less

  14. Econometrics: A Bird's Eye View

    E-print Network

    Geweke, John; Horowitz, Joel; Pesaran, M. Hashem

    is attributed to Gregory King, who was the first to fit a linear function of changes in corn prices on deficiencies in the corn harvest, as reported in Charles Davenant (1698). One important consideration in the empirical work of King and others in this early... period seems to have been the discovery of ‘laws’ in economics, very much like those in physics and other natural sciences. This quest for economic laws was, and to a lesser extent still is, rooted in the desire to give economics the status that Newton...

  15. Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES)

    SciTech Connect

    2012-07-27

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing complance pressures require careful consideration and adaption. The CSES provides a measure (i.e. a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders' interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement.

  16. Manpower Projections to 1980. Econometric Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kubota, Gordon H.; Tsukahara, Theodore, Jr.

    The objective of this study was to develop an economic approach to the forecasting of allied health manpower in markets in the State of California. The health manpower categories considered included: (1) Medical technology, (2) occupational therapy, (3) dietetic and nutritional services, (4) physical therapy, (5) health administration, (6)…

  17. AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF NET INVESTMENT IN

    E-print Network

    seen a remarkable substitution of steel and fiberglass vessels for wooden vessels. The factors of steel, wood, and fiberglass vessels in the Gulf fleet. The effects of alternative macroeco- nomic vessel (e.g., wood, steel, fiberglass) can be stated algebraically as follows3: 2: p(ilXlilKj ) - (i

  18. High-dimensional econometrics and model selection

    E-print Network

    Luo, Ye, Ph. D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2015-01-01

    This dissertation consists of three chapters. Chapter 1 proposes a new method to solve the many moment problem: in Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), when the number of moment conditions is comparable to or larger than ...

  19. Econometrics Model Selection: Theory and Applications 

    E-print Network

    Long, Wei

    2015-06-10

    and density function of Xi, respectively, where 1 ? i ? p. According to Hu (2006) and Cai and Wang (2014), a mixture copula model is a linear mixture of some copula families. Specifically, a mixture copula model can be written as C(u;?,?) = L? l=1 ?lCl(u; ?l...) = L? l=1 ?lCl(F1(x1;?1), ..., Fp(xp;?p); ?l) (2.1) where {C1(·), ..., CL(·)} is a set of candidate copulas with a vector of unknown as- sociated parameters ? = (?1, . . . , ?L) T and p-dimension marginal distribution u = (F1(·), . . . , Fp(·)), ? = (?1...

  20. Econometrics and Data Analysis I Yale University

    E-print Network

    Post, David M.

    , we might be interested in estimating the demand for health insurance as a function of the price:00am Office Hours (online): MWF 11:00am­12:00am Course Description This course teaches how to evaluate, such as the uncertainties faced by financial investors, insurers, and individuals in everyday life. We will study

  1. Panel Data Econometric Models: Theory and Application 

    E-print Network

    Gao, Yichen

    2013-05-20

    equation and solve for ~m(x) yields ~m (x) = [ 0 nTKh(x) nT ] 1 0nTKh(x)[Y D0 ] = Pn i=1 PT t=1(yit i)Kh(Xit; x) Pn i=1 PT t=1Kh(Xit; x) : (2.2.3) Note that ~m (x) de ned in equation (2.2.3) is not feasible because f ig is unob... variables (LSDV) estimator of when m(x) is replaced by ~m (x) de ned in equation (2.2.3). Substituting equation (2.2.3) into equation (2.2.4), we obtain b = arg min (Y D0 ) 0P (Y D0 ); (2.2.5) where P = [InT S]0[InT S] with S = (sh(x11...

  2. An Econometric Model of the U.S. Wine Industry. 

    E-print Network

    Wohlgenant, Michael K.

    1985-01-01

    Argonautes (AGOs) are central components in RNA-induced gene silencing complexes (RISCs) and control almost all aspects of developmental processes in eukaryotes. Study on AGO proteins not only elucidates the fundamental ...

  3. Regression and Causation: A Critical Examination of Six Econometrics Textbooks

    E-print Network

    California at Los Angeles, University of

    mathematical notation that distinguishes causal from statistical concepts. This survey also provides taken from (Stock and Watson, 2011, p. 3) is modeling the effect of cigarette taxes on smoking. In this case, smoking, Y , is the dependent variable, and cigarette taxes, X, is the independent variable

  4. Curriculum for Econometrics First Version: July 9, 2001

    E-print Network

    Chriss, Neil

    issues techniques in the face of multiple variables. Lecture 11 (November 19, 2001): Applications I-square, t and F distributions is encouraged. Assignments Course Outline Lecture 1 (September 10, 2001, testing power and likelihood ratio tests. Asymptotic results will be discussed. Lecture 2 (September 17

  5. Econometrics of the Basu Asymmetric Timeliness Coefficient and Accounting Conservatism

    E-print Network

    BALL, RAY

    A substantial literature investigates conditional conservatism, defined as asymmetric accounting recognition of economic shocks (“news”), and how it depends on various market, political, and institutional variables. Studies ...

  6. Applying Econometrics to the Carbon Dioxide “Control Knob”

    PubMed Central

    Curtin, Timothy

    2012-01-01

    This paper tests various propositions underlying claims that observed global temperature change is mostly attributable to anthropogenic noncondensing greenhouse gases, and that although water vapour is recognized to be a dominant contributor to the overall greenhouse gas (GHG) effect, that effect is merely a “feedback” from rising temperatures initially resulting only from “non-condensing” GHGs and not at all from variations in preexisting naturally caused atmospheric water vapour (i.e., [H2O]). However, this paper shows that “initial radiative forcing” is not exclusively attributable to forcings from noncondensing GHG, both because atmospheric water vapour existed before there were any significant increases in GHG concentrations or temperatures and also because there is no evidence that such increases have produced measurably higher [H2O]. The paper distinguishes between forcing and feedback impacts of water vapour and contends that it is the primary forcing agent, at much more than 50% of the total GHG gas effect. That means that controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide is unlikely to be an effective “control knob” as claimed by Lacis et al. (2010). PMID:22629196

  7. Three Essays on Semiparametric Econometrics: Theory and Application 

    E-print Network

    Li, Hongjun

    2014-04-25

    . For the discrete vari- ables we use the kernel l(Y dis, y d s , ?s) = ? |Y dis?y d s | s (with ?0s = 1 and 0 0 = 1), where 1(A) = 1 if A holds, and 0 otherwise. I write the product (discrete variable) kernel as L?(ydi , y d, ?) = ?r s=1 l(y d is, y d s , ?s....0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l ll l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l...

  8. JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS J. Appl. Econ. 26: 3055 (2011)

    E-print Network

    Raftery, Adrian

    2011-01-01

    Research Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, USA c Departments of Statistics, subject to L Correspondence to: Chris Papageorgiou, Research Department, 700 19th St NW, Washington, DC 20 PAPAGEORGIOUb * AND ADRIAN E. RAFTERYc a Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA b

  9. Essays on Nonparametric Series Estimation with Application to Financial Econometrics 

    E-print Network

    Chang, Meng-Shiuh

    2012-10-19

    (2006) 307-335], and studied a class of univariate copula-based nonparametric stationary Markov models in which the copulas and the marginal distributions are estimated nonparametrically. In particular, I focused on the stationary Markov process of order...

  10. Econometric and Statistical Bases for the Non-Econometrician

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tyzenhouse, Joanne

    1978-01-01

    An overview is provided for librarians of the types of statistical or numeric data bases offered by Data Resources, Inc., General Electric Information Division, Predicasts, and Interactive Data Corporation. Tables list the types of data or statistical information available from each. (JPF)

  11. Hydrogen production econometric studies. [hydrogen and fossil fuels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Howell, J. R.; Bannerot, R. B.

    1975-01-01

    The current assessments of fossil fuel resources in the United States were examined, and predictions of the maximum and minimum lifetimes of recoverable resources according to these assessments are presented. In addition, current rates of production in quads/year for the fossil fuels were determined from the literature. Where possible, costs of energy, location of reserves, and remaining time before these reserves are exhausted are given. Limitations that appear to hinder complete development of each energy source are outlined.

  12. Econometric Analyses of Public Water Demand in the United States 

    E-print Network

    Bell, David

    2012-02-14

    or block rates, seasonal rates, metered-water-dependent sewerage fees, and often fees for the provision of nonwater services such as garbage disposal and energy. Consumer perception of water's marginal price is especially dim. Evidence suggests... request. Of 1406 community water providers considered, 734 responded to mailed inquiries seeking water and sewerage rate structures for a five-year period. Raw data expressed in nominal dollars are corrected for inflation in the analysis. Due...

  13. Essays in Financial Econometric Investigations of Farmland Valuations 

    E-print Network

    Xu, Jin

    2013-05-20

    of farmland, but this explanation works primarily in the short run. Finally, essay III investigates the duel effects of direct government payments and climate change on farmland values. This study uses a smooth coefficient semi-parametric panel data model...

  14. Causality and aggregation in economics: the use of high dimensional panel data in micro-econometrics and macro-econometrics 

    E-print Network

    Kwon, Dae-Heum

    2009-05-15

    .............................................................................................................vii LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ix LIST OF FIGURES... .......................................................................................................................................... 248 ix LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 3.1 Synthetic Parameters for Three Specifications................................................................ 93 3.2 Sorted Static Correlation Matrix...

  15. Computational models of consumer confidence from large-scale online attention data: crowd-sourcing econometrics.

    PubMed

    Dong, Xianlei; Bollen, Johan

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  16. Impacts of oil price shock on carbon emissions in India: An econometric analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Chattopadhyay, D.; Majumdar, S.

    1996-09-01

    Oil price shock has two interrelated impacts, GDP growth rate impact and energy impact, that induce a change in carbon emission level. This article seeks to find out, in the Indian context, whether the past oil shocks of the 1970s had any significant effect on carbon emission growth rate and then to simulate the impact on future GDP growth rate and carbon emissions if an oil price shock were to recur. Statistical diagnosis of the series confirms a structural break in the carbon emissions growth rate in 1975 following the 1973 oil shock. A Bayesian vector autoregressive model is developed with four variables: CO{sub 2} emission level, GDP, population, and oil price for the period 1970--1988. The carbon emissions and GDP for the period 1989--1995 are projected, given various simulated oil price scenarios. The oil price shock gives rise to a persistently high carbon emissions level with a time lag and an immediate negative impact on GDP that decreases within a short period.

  17. The impacts of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat productivity in China - An econometric approach.

    PubMed

    Yi, Fujin; Jiang, Fei; Zhong, Funing; Zhou, Xun; Ding, Aijun

    2016-01-01

    The impact of surface ozone pollution on winter wheat yield is empirically estimated by considering socio-economic and weather determinants. This research is the first to use an economic framework to estimate the ozone impact, and a unique county-level panel is employed to examine the impact of the increasing surface ozone concentration on the productivity of winter wheat in China. In general, the increment of surface ozone concentration during the ozone-sensitive period of winter wheat is determined to be harmful to its yield, and a conservative reduction of ozone pollution could significantly increase China's wheat supply. PMID:26552518

  18. Journal of Econometrics 112 (2003) 135151 www.elsevier.com/locate/econbase

    E-print Network

    Dominici, Francesca

    2003-01-01

    is that the net value includes the savings from smoking causing premature death in addition to increased, we focus on statistical methods for estimating the gross e ect that we call the smoking and their medical costs attributable to smoking: an analysis of the national medical expenditure survey Elizabeth

  19. Three Essays on Nonparametric Econometrics with Applications to Financial Economics and Insurance 

    E-print Network

    Wen, Kuangyu

    2015-05-07

    This dissertation includes three essays. The first essay concerns nonparametric kernel density estimation on the unit interval. The Kernel Density Estimator (KDE) suffers boundary biases when applied to densities on bounded ...

  20. Computational Models of Consumer Confidence from Large-Scale Online Attention Data: Crowd-Sourcing Econometrics

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Economies are instances of complex socio-technical systems that are shaped by the interactions of large numbers of individuals. The individual behavior and decision-making of consumer agents is determined by complex psychological dynamics that include their own assessment of present and future economic conditions as well as those of others, potentially leading to feedback loops that affect the macroscopic state of the economic system. We propose that the large-scale interactions of a nation's citizens with its online resources can reveal the complex dynamics of their collective psychology, including their assessment of future system states. Here we introduce a behavioral index of Chinese Consumer Confidence (C3I) that computationally relates large-scale online search behavior recorded by Google Trends data to the macroscopic variable of consumer confidence. Our results indicate that such computational indices may reveal the components and complex dynamics of consumer psychology as a collective socio-economic phenomenon, potentially leading to improved and more refined economic forecasting. PMID:25826692

  1. Forest fires in Italy: An econometric analysis of major driving factors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Michetti, Melania; Pinar, Mehmet

    2013-04-01

    Despite the relevant fire risk to which Italy is subject from north to south, very few analysis focus on this area. This article investigates the causes of forest fires frequency and intensity in Italy during the first decade of the XXI century. The dynamical aspects of fire danger are explored through the use of panel data techniques which fully capture the impacts on forest fires of changes in both socio-economic and climatic conditions. Italy is treated as a unique region in a first model specification, while it is then split into 3 geographical areas (north, centre, and south) to capture locally specific aspects. Two different dependent variables are alternatively employed and a number of ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate the robustness of our estimates. Results highlight the importance of considering the fire situation separately for the northern, central, and southern parts of Italy. While the presence of railway networks positively affects fire risk, the impact of livestock depends on its specific composition. Favourable effects in fire reduction are represented by the increase in education levels (north and centre) and touristic flows (north and south), and by the containment of illegal activities (south). Weather patterns appear to be important determinants all over the Italian peninsula.

  2. Econometric Methods to Analyze Consumer Behavior Using Hypothetical and Non-hypothetical Approaches 

    E-print Network

    Collart Dinarte, Alba Jeanette

    2013-11-22

    . When the model is applied to data collected in a non-hypothetical Vickrey auction to elicit WTP for government (Food Safety Modernization Act, FSMA) and industry-issued (Global GAP) food safety standards in specialty melons, findings indicate...

  3. Determining transit impact on Seoul office rent and land value: an application of spatial econometrics 

    E-print Network

    Kim, Jin

    2005-02-17

    This study posits that there may be a systematic bias in measuring the transit?s endogenous impact on land values in a built up area due to discrimination by location in the city. Studies of transit value-added effect ...

  4. Non-equilibrium thermodynamics theory of econometric source discovery for large data analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Bergem, Rutger; Jenkins, Jeffrey; Benachenhou, Dalila; Szu, Harold

    2014-05-01

    Almost all consumer and firm transactions are achieved using computers and as a result gives rise to increasingly large amounts of data available for analysts. The gold standard in Economic data manipulation techniques matured during a period of limited data access, and the new Large Data Analysis (LDA) paradigm we all face may quickly obfuscate most tools used by Economists. When coupled with an increased availability of numerous unstructured, multi-modal data sets, the impending 'data tsunami' could have serious detrimental effects for Economic forecasting, analysis, and research in general. Given this reality we propose a decision-aid framework for Augmented-LDA (A-LDA) - a synergistic approach to LDA which combines traditional supervised, rule-based Machine Learning (ML) strategies to iteratively uncover hidden sources in large data, the artificial neural network (ANN) Unsupervised Learning (USL) at the minimum Helmholtz free energy for isothermal dynamic equilibrium strategies, and the Economic intuitions required to handle problems encountered when interpreting large amounts of Financial or Economic data. To make the ANN USL framework applicable to economics we define the temperature, entropy, and energy concepts in Economics from non-equilibrium molecular thermodynamics of Boltzmann viewpoint, as well as defining an information geometry, on which the ANN can operate using USL to reduce information saturation. An exemplar of such a system representation is given for firm industry equilibrium. We demonstrate the traditional ML methodology in the economics context and leverage firm financial data to explore a frontier concept known as behavioral heterogeneity. Behavioral heterogeneity on the firm level can be imagined as a firm's interactions with different types of Economic entities over time. These interactions could impose varying degrees of institutional constraints on a firm's business behavior. We specifically look at behavioral heterogeneity for firms that are operating with the label of `Going-Concern' and firms labeled according to institutional influence they may be experiencing, such as constraints on firm hiring/spending while in a Bankruptcy or a Merger procedure. Uncovering invariant features, or behavioral data metrics from observable firm data in an economy can greatly benefit the FED, World Bank, etc. We find that the ML/LDA communities can benefit from Economic intuitions just as much as Economists can benefit from generic data exploration tools. The future of successful Economic data understanding, modeling, simulation, and visualization can be amplified by new A-LDA models and approaches for new and analogous models of Economic system dynamics. The potential benefits of improved economic data analysis and real time decision aid tools are numerous for researchers, analysts, and federal agencies who all deal with increasingly large amounts of complex data to support their decision making.

  5. Spatial Econometric Models for Panel Data: Incorporating Spatial and Temporal Data

    E-print Network

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    . Understanding the ways in which geographic, economic, demographic, political and other factors interact connection between the real world and the model, as opposed to largely theoretical work, is sought. This parallels some recent models, developed for use by planning organizations for regional forecasting

  6. Econometric model of the U.S. sheep and mohair industries for policy analysis 

    E-print Network

    Ribera Landivar, Luis Alejandro

    2005-08-29

    The U.S. sheep industry has been declining in size for many years. Many factors have contributed to the decline of the sheep industry including declining consumption of lamb and mutton, the growth in manmade fiber use, scarcity of labor...

  7. An econometric model of the U.S. secondary copper industry: Recycling versus disposal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Slade, M.E.

    1980-01-01

    In this paper, a theoretical model of secondary recovery is developed that integrates microeconomic theories of production and cost with a dynamic model of scrap generation and accumulation. The model equations are estimated for the U.S. secondary copper industry and used to assess the impacts that various policies and future events have on copper recycling rates. The alternatives considered are: subsidies for secondary production, differing energy costs, and varying ore quality in primary production. ?? 1990.

  8. Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

    This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

  9. An Econometric Study of Public School Expenditure Variations Across States, 1951-1967.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barro, Stephen M.

    Nine sets of annual data on State school finances are used to test a theory of expenditure determination by public school districts. The results support implications of the theory regarding effects of personal income, State and federal aid, the relative price of education, the pupil/population ratio, and enrollment growth on per pupil spending. A…

  10. Essays on econometric modeling of subjective perceptions of risks in environment and human health 

    E-print Network

    Nguyen, To Ngoc

    2009-05-15

    the estimator asymptotically unbiased and efficient. The third essay addresses the problem of modeling perceived mortality risks from arsenic concentrations in drinking water. I estimated a formal model that allows for ambiguity about risk. The empirical...

  11. Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometric study

    E-print Network

    Shi, Xiaoyu, M.C.P. Massachusetts Institute of Technology

    2005-01-01

    Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., physical energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product ...

  12. Energy prices and energy intensity in China : a structural decomposition analysis and econometrics study

    E-print Network

    Shi, Xiaoyu

    2006-01-01

    Since the start of its economic reforms in 1978, China's energy prices relative to other prices have increased. At the same time, its energy intensity, i.e., energy consumption per unit of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), has ...

  13. Econometric analysis of the historical growth and volatility trends of various metals

    E-print Network

    Jones, Brittany Laurél

    2012-01-01

    Post Malthusian economics, there is growing recognition of the impact technological change and advance has on market activity. By studying historical production and price trends, boundaries of feasible growth can be ...

  14. Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

    PubMed

    Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

    1996-04-15

    We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits. PMID:8740574

  15. An econometric analysis of the fertility and labor supply of unmarried women.

    PubMed

    Lehrer, E; Nerlove, M

    1982-01-01

    This article emphasizes the importance of dividing the life cycle into various stages for the analysis of female labor supply and fertility. It confirms the need for a multiperiod model for the case of unmarried women as well. The relationship between fertility and female employment varies across the life cycle stages; the pattern for postmarried women is similar to that of married women, but a completely different picture emerges for single women. It is also found that the impact of some exogenous variables on the labor supply of postmarried mothers changes over the life cycle, in the same direction as for married mothers. For the group of widowed, divorced, and separated women, the impact of female education on labor supply is much larger in the interval between marriage and 1st birth than in the subsequent stages. Also, although the former husband's income has no influence on the woman's market activity prior to the birth of the 1st child, it has a marked negative effect in the child rearing period. In the post child rearing stage, a variable that controls for other income sources, including alimony and child support, exerts a strong negative influence on female employment. Some differences in the fertility and labor supply behavior of married and unmarried women include: 1) the absence of husbands and their incomes in the case of unmarried women implies that such women face a relatively strong economic pressure to enter the labor market so that greater participation rates in the child rearing and post-child rearing stages occur; 2) whereas unmarried mothers are typically the sole earners in their households, they often qualify to receive other income such as welfare payments; 3) the labor supply of unmarried mothers is significantly affected by regional variations in the level of benefits; and 4) the family size of unmarried mothers is insensitive to being Catholic and having education. PMID:12264902

  16. Power law distribution in high frequency financial data? An econometric analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todorova, Lora; Vogt, Bodo

    2011-11-01

    Power law distributions are very common in natural sciences. We analyze high frequency financial data from XETRA and the NYSE using maximum likelihood estimation and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic to test whether the power law hypothesis holds also for these data. We find that the universality and scale invariance properties of the power law are violated. Furthermore, the returns of Daimler Chrysler and SAP traded simultaneously on both exchanges follow a power law at one exchange, but not at the other. These results raise some questions about the no-arbitrage condition. Finally, we find that an exponential function provides a better fit for the tails of the sample distributions than a power law function.

  17. An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

    2013-01-01

    The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

  18. The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mushrush, Christopher E.

    2013-01-01

    Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

  19. Approved Module Information for BFM115, 2014/5 Module Title/Name: Financial Econometrics Module Code: BFM115

    E-print Network

    Neirotti, Juan Pablo

    and evaluate forecast models for financial time-series * Understand, estimate and test Value-at-Risk investment risk in financial institutions, as well as risk monitoring techniques used by policy makers and central banks to ensure financial stability and robust economic growth. Module Delivery Methods

  20. A spatial econometric panel data examination of endogenous versus exogenous interaction in Chinese province-level patenting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LeSage, James P.; Sheng, Yuxue

    2014-07-01

    We examine the provincial-level relationship between domestic Chinese intellectual property (IP) and knowledge stocks using a space-time panel model and data set covering monthly patent activity over the period 2002-2010. The goal of the modeling exercise is to explore the elasticity response of IP to knowledge stocks classified by type of creator (universities and research institutes, enterprises, and individuals). A focus is on spatial and time dependence in the relationship between knowledge stocks and IP, which implies spatial spillovers and diffusion over time. Many past studies of regional knowledge production have focused on patent applications as a proxy for regional output from the knowledge production process. However, this ignores the distinction between patent applications and patents granted, with the latter reflecting a decision and ability to convert knowledge produced into IP. This study differs in its focus on the regional relation between IP and knowledge stocks and the space-time dynamics of these. Using patents granted as a proxy for IP, and past patent applications as a proxy for regional knowledge stocks, allows us to explore the implied quality of knowledge production by various types of creators. Because Chinese patent applications have grown by 22 %, questions have been raised about the quantity versus quality of these applications. Our findings shed light on this issue.

  1. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 2015, Vol. 13, No. 2, 478--504 Rounding Errors and Volatility Estimation

    E-print Network

    Mykland, Per A.

    Estimation YINGYING LI Department of Information Systems, Business Statistics and Operations Management, Hong statistical improvement. (JEL: C02, C13,C14) KEYWORDS: rounding errors, bias-correction, diffusion process comments. Address correspondence to Yingying Li, Department of Information Systems, Business Statistics

  2. Assessing the Use of Econometric Analysis in Estimating the Costs of Meeting State Education Accountability Standards: Lessons from Texas

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Imazeki, Jennifer; Reschovsky, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    In 2004, over 300 school districts in Texas challenged the constitutionality of the Texas system of school finance. In West Orange-Cove et al. v. Neeley et al., the plaintiffs argued that because most school districts were at or near a state-imposed property tax rate ceiling and because the share of state education funding was declining, most…

  3. An econometric analysis and forecast of the Central London Office Market : single model versus aggregate submarket models

    E-print Network

    Waisnor, Matthew E. (Matthew Edward)

    2013-01-01

    This paper examines and projects fundamental characteristics of the London Office rental market which is facing supply and demand issues in upcoming years despite being considered one of the few safe haven places for real ...

  4. Healthcare Costs Associated with an Adequate Intake of Sugars, Salt and Saturated Fat in Germany: A Health Econometrical Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Meier, Toni; Senftleben, Karolin; Deumelandt, Peter; Christen, Olaf; Riedel, Katja; Langer, Martin

    2015-01-01

    Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represent not only the major driver for quality-restricted and lost life years; NCDs and their related medical treatment costs also pose a substantial economic burden on healthcare and intra-generational tax distribution systems. The main objective of this study was therefore to quantify the economic burden of unbalanced nutrition in Germany—in particular the effects of an excessive consumption of fat, salt and sugar—and to examine different reduction scenarios on this basis. In this study, the avoidable direct cost savings in the German healthcare system attributable to an adequate intake of saturated fatty acids (SFA), salt and sugar (mono- & disaccharides, MDS) were calculated. To this end, disease-specific healthcare cost data from the official Federal Health Monitoring for the years 2002–2008 and disease-related risk factors, obtained by thoroughly searching the literature, were used. A total of 22 clinical endpoints with 48 risk-outcome pairs were considered. Direct healthcare costs attributable to an unbalanced intake of fat, salt and sugar are calculated to be 16.8 billion EUR (CI95%: 6.3–24.1 billion EUR) in the year 2008, which represents 7% (CI95% 2%-10%) of the total treatment costs in Germany (254 billion EUR). This is equal to 205 EUR per person annually. The excessive consumption of sugar poses the highest burden, at 8.6 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.0–12.1); salt ranks 2nd at 5.3 billion EUR (CI95%: 3.2–7.3) and saturated fat ranks 3rd at 2.9 billion EUR (CI95%: 32 million—4.7 billion). Predicted direct healthcare cost savings by means of a balanced intake of sugars, salt and saturated fat are substantial. However, as this study solely considered direct medical treatment costs regarding an adequate consumption of fat, salt and sugars, the actual societal and economic gains, resulting both from direct and indirect cost savings, may easily exceed 16.8 billion EUR. PMID:26352606

  5. Advances in nonmarket valuation econometrics: Spatial heterogeneity in hedonic pricing models and preference heterogeneity in stated preference models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoo, Jin Woo

    In my 1st essay, the study explores Pennsylvania residents. willingness to pay for development of renewable energy technologies such as solar power, wind power, biomass electricity, and other renewable energy using a choice experiment method. Principle component analysis identified 3 independent attitude components that affect the variation of preference, a desire for renewable energy and environmental quality and concern over cost. The results show that urban residents have a higher desire for environmental quality and concern less about cost than rural residents and consequently have a higher willingness to pay to increase renewable energy production. The results of sub-sample analysis show that a representative respondent in rural (urban) Pennsylvania is willing to pay 3.8(5.9) and 4.1(5.7)/month for increasing the share of Pennsylvania electricity generated from wind power and other renewable energy by 1 percent point, respectively. Mean WTP for solar and biomass electricity was not significantly different from zero. In my second essay, heterogeneity of individual WTP for various renewable energy technologies is investigated using several different variants of the multinomial logit model: a simple MNL with interaction terms, a latent class choice model, a random parameter mixed logit choice model, and a random parameter-latent class choice model. The results of all models consistently show that respondents. preference for individual renewable technology is heterogeneous, but the degree of heterogeneity differs for different renewable technologies. In general, the random parameter logit model with interactions and a hybrid random parameter logit-latent class model fit better than other models and better capture respondents. heterogeneity of preference for renewable energy. The impact of the land under agricultural conservation easement (ACE) contract on the values of nearby residential properties is investigated using housing sales data in two Pennsylvania Counties. The spatial-lag (SLM), the spatial error (SEM) and the spatial error component (SEC) models were compared. A geographically weighted regression (GWR) model is estimated to study the spatial heterogeneity of the marginal implicit prices of ACE impact within each county. New hybrid spatial hedonic models, the GWR-SEC and a modified GWR-SEM, are estimated such that both spatial autocorrelation and heterogeneity are accounted. The results show that the coefficient of land under easement contract varies spatially within one county, but not within the other county studied. Also, ACE's are found to have both positive and negative impacts on the values of nearby residential properties. Among global spatial models, the SEM fit better than the SLM and the SEC. Statistical goodness of fit measures showed that the GWR-SEC model fit better than the GWR or the GWR-SEC model. Finally, the GWR-SEC showed spatial autocorrelation is stronger in one county than in the other county.

  6. An econometric analysis of regional differences in household waste collection: The case of plastic packaging waste in Sweden

    SciTech Connect

    Hage, Olle Soederholm, Patrik

    2008-07-01

    The Swedish producer responsibility ordinance mandates producers to collect and recycle packaging materials. This paper investigates the main determinants of collection rates of household plastic packaging waste in Swedish municipalities. This is done by the use of a regression analysis based on cross-sectional data for 252 Swedish municipalities. The results suggest that local policies, geographic/demographic variables, socio-economic factors and environmental preferences all help explain inter-municipality collection rates. For instance, the collection rate appears to be positively affected by increases in the unemployment rate, the share of private houses, and the presence of immigrants (unless newly arrived) in the municipality. The impacts of distance to recycling industry, urbanization rate and population density on collection outcomes turn out, though, to be both statistically and economically insignificant. A reasonable explanation for this is that the monetary compensation from the material companies to the collection entrepreneurs vary depending on region and is typically higher in high-cost regions. This implies that the plastic packaging collection in Sweden may be cost ineffective. Finally, the analysis also shows that municipalities that employ weight-based waste management fees generally experience higher collection rates than those municipalities in which flat and/or volume-based fees are used.

  7. Econometric analysis on the impact of macroeconomic variables toward financial performance: A case of Malaysian public listed logistics companies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zakariah, Sahidah; Pyeman, Jaafar; Ghazali, Rahmat; Rahman, Ibrahim A.; Rashid, Ahmad Husni Mohd; Shamsuddin, Sofian

    2014-12-01

    The primary concern of this study is to analyse the impact against macroeconomic variables upon the financial performance, particularly in the case of public listed logistics companies in Malaysia. This study incorporated five macroeconomic variables and four proxies of financial performance. The macroeconomic variables selected are gross domestic product (GDP), total trade (XM), foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and interest rate (INT). This study is extended to the usage of ratio analysis to predict financial performance in relation to the changes upon macroeconomic variables. As such, this study selected four (4) ratios as proxies to financial performance, which is Operating Profit Margin (OPM), Net Profit Margin (NPM), Return on Asset (ROA), Return on Equity (ROE). The findings of this study may appear non-controversial to some, but it resulted in the following important consensus; (1) GDP is found to be highly impacting NPM and least of ROA, (2) XM has high positive impact on OPM and least on ROE, (3) FDI appear to have insignificant impact towards NPM, and (4) INF and INT show similar negative impact on financial performance, precisely highly negative on OPM and least on ROA. Such findings also conform to the local logistic industry settings, specifically in regards to public listed logistics companies in relation to its financial performance.

  8. The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

    PubMed

    Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

    2011-12-01

    The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact. PMID:22439555

  9. Estimates of price and income elasticity in Greece. Greek debt crisis transforming cigarettes into a luxury good: an econometric approach

    PubMed Central

    Tarantilis, Filippos; Athanasakis, Kostas; Zavras, Dimitris; Vozikis, Athanassios; Kyriopoulos, Ioannis

    2015-01-01

    Objective During the past decades, smoking prevalence in Greece was estimated to be near or over 40%. Following a sharp fall in cigarette consumption, as shown in current data, our objective is to assess smokers’ sensitivity to cigarette price and consumer income changes as well as to project health benefits of an additional tax increase. Methods Cigarette consumption was considered as the dependent variable, with Weighted Average Price as a proxy for cigarette price, gross domestic product as a proxy for consumers’ income and dummy variables reflecting smoking restrictions and antismoking campaigns. Values were computed to natural logarithms and regression was performed. Then, four scenarios of tax increase were distinguished in order to calculate potential health benefits. Results Short-run price elasticity is estimated at ?0.441 and short-run income elasticity is estimated at 1.040. Antismoking campaigns were found to have a statistically significant impact on consumption. Results indicate that, depending on the level of tax increase, annual per capita consumption could fall by at least 209.83 cigarettes; tax revenue could rise by more than €0.74 billion, while smokers could be reduced by up to 530?568 and at least 465 smoking-related deaths could be averted. Conclusions Price elasticity estimates are similar to previous studies in Greece, while income elasticity estimates are far greater. With cigarettes regarded as a luxury good, a great opportunity is presented for decisionmakers to counter smoking. Increased taxation, along with focused antismoking campaigns, law reinforcement (to ensure compliance with smoking bans) and intensive control for smuggling could invoke a massive blow to the tobacco epidemic in Greece. PMID:25564137

  10. An econometric analysis of changes in arable land utilization using multinomial logit model in Pinggu district, Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Yueqing; McNamara, Paul; Wu, Yanfang; Dong, Yue

    2013-10-15

    Arable land in China has been decreasing as a result of rapid population growth and economic development as well as urban expansion, especially in developed regions around cities where quality farmland quickly disappears. This paper analyzed changes in arable land utilization during 1993-2008 in the Pinggu district, Beijing, China, developed a multinomial logit (MNL) model to determine spatial driving factors influencing arable land-use change, and simulated arable land transition probabilities. Land-use maps, as well as social-economic and geographical data were used in the study. The results indicated that arable land decreased significantly between 1993 and 2008. Lost arable land shifted into orchard, forestland, settlement, and transportation land. Significant differences existed for arable land transitions among different landform areas. Slope, elevation, population density, urbanization rate, distance to settlements, and distance to roadways were strong drivers influencing arable land transition to other uses. The MNL model was proved effective for predicting transition probabilities in land use from arable land to other land-use types, thus can be used for scenario analysis to develop land-use policies and land-management measures in this metropolitan area. PMID:23774750

  11. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Genc, Murat; Scarborough, Peter; Rayner, Mike; Mizdrak, Anja; Nnoaham, Kelechi; Blakely, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Background Health-related food taxes and subsidies may promote healthier diets and reduce mortality. Our aim was to estimate the effects of health-related food taxes and subsidies on deaths prevented or postponed (DPP) in New Zealand. Methods A macrosimulation model based on household expenditure data, demand elasticities and population impact fractions for 18 diet-related diseases was used to estimate effects of five tax and subsidy regimens. We used price elasticity values for 24 major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, and food expenditure data from national Household Economic Surveys. Changes in mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, diabetes and other diet-related diseases were estimated. Findings A 20% subsidy on fruit and vegetables would result in 560 (95% uncertainty interval, 400 to 700) DPP each year (1.9% annual all-cause mortality). A 20% tax on major dietary sources of saturated fat would result in 1,500 (950 to 2,100) DPP (5.0%), and a 20% tax on major dietary sources of sodium would result in 2,000 (1300 to 2,700) DPP (6.8%). Combining taxes on saturated fat and sodium with a fruit and vegetable subsidy would result in 2,400 (1,800 to 3,000) DPP (8.1% mortality annually). A tax on major dietary sources of greenhouse gas emissions would generate 1,200 (750 to 1,700) DPP annually (4.0%). Effects were similar or greater for Maori and low-income households in relative terms. Conclusions Health-related food taxes and subsidies could improve diets and reduce mortality from diet-related disease in New Zealand. Our study adds to the growing evidence base suggesting food pricing policies should improve population health and reduce inequalities, but there is still much work to be done to improve estimation of health impacts. PMID:26154289

  12. Essays on Applied Economics and Econometrics: Decadal Climate Variability Impacts on Cropping and Sugar-sweetened Beverage Demand of Low-income 

    E-print Network

    Jithitikulchai, Theepakorn

    2014-12-10

    This dissertation examines the economic impacts of ocean-related climate variability on U.S. crops and the effect sweetened beverage taxes would have on beverage consumption among low income food assistance program ...

  13. A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

    1994-01-01

    Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

  14. Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

    1974-01-01

    The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

  15. A Non-Econometric Analysis with Algebraic Models to Forecast the Numbers of Newly Hired and Retirement of Public Primary School Teachers in Taiwan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lung-Hsing, Kuo; Hung-Jen, Yang; Ying-Wen, Lin; Shang-Ming, Su

    2011-01-01

    In recent years, the "street teachers" issue has caused social concern in Taiwan. This study estimates the retirement of and needs for newly hired and public primary school teachers in 2010 using an algebraic model from the paper by Husssar (1999). This recursive methodology predicts the number of newly hired public primary school teachers due to…

  16. THE 20002002 TJALLING C. KOOPMANS

    E-print Network

    THE 2000­2002 TJALLING C. KOOPMANS ECONOMETRIC THEORY PRIZE Econometric Theory is proud to announce the winning article for The Tjalling C+ Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize for the period 2000­2002 inclusive Tjøstheim, and Lijian Yang are awarded the Tjalling C+ Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize for their paper

  17. Information, Technology, and Information Worker Productivity

    E-print Network

    Aral, Sinan

    We econometrically evaluate information worker productivity at a midsize executive recruiting firm and assess whether the knowledge that workers accessed through their electronic communication networks enabled them to ...

  18. FACULTY, FIELDS OF INTEREST The Economics faculty are distinguished and active

    E-print Network

    Grissino-Mayer, Henri D.

    ­ Economics of Education, Public Economics, Antitrust Economics Don Clark ­ International Economics, Growth Organization, Law and Economics, Public Economics Georg Schaur ­ International Trade, Applied Econometrics

  19. 78 FR 49276 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-08-13

    ...professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well...epidemiology and applied statistics; immunology; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics;...

  20. 75 FR 57807 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-22

    ...professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well...epidemiology and applied statistics; immunology; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics;...

  1. 77 FR 28607 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-15

    ...professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well...epidemiology and applied statistics; immunology; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics;...

  2. MATHEMATICS MAJOR REQUIREMENTS: ADVISEMENT FORM BACHELOR OF SCIENCE DEGREE

    E-print Network

    Suri, Manil

    to Econometrics EDUC 320 Teaching Mathematics in the Elementary School EDUC 426 Teaching Mathematics Mechanics PHYS 407 Electromagnetic Theory PHYS 424 Introduction to Quantum Mechanics PHYS 440 Computations

  3. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

  4. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

  5. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ...analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain...Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

  6. 75 FR 57807 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-09-22

    ..., epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as... applied statistics; immunology; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics;...

  7. Denis Nekipelov Curriculum Vitae

    E-print Network

    Weimer, Westley

    Interests: Structural Econometrics for Big Data, Computational Methods of Industrial Organization Previous, Microsoft research ­ Silicon Valley Education Ph.D. in Economics, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA, 2008 M Kormilitsina), in Advances in Econometrics, 2013. Recovering Treatment Effects from Combined Data

  8. Composicion Lineas de trabajo Colaboraciones actuales Resumen de posibles colaboraciones Grupo de Computacion Cientifica y Programacion

    E-print Network

    Giménez, Domingo

    ´eneas... Aplicaciones Econometr´ia: estad´istica, paralelismo, metaheur´isticas Medicina: estad´istica, paralelismo, metaheur´isticas Electromagnetismo: paralelismo, metaheur´isticas Modelos bayesianos: estad´istica´eneas... Aplicaciones Econometr´ia: estad´istica, paralelismo, metaheur´isticas Medicina: estad´istica, paralelismo

  9. Journal of Environmental Protection, 2012, 3, 1117-1123 doi:10.4236/jep.2012.329130 Published Online September 2012 (http://www.SciRP.org/journal/jep)

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    in Lin (2010), in which I use spatial econometrics to analyze air pollution externalities. In Lin (2010,6]. A secondary pollutant, ozone is not emitted directly but is formed in ambient air by chemical reactions in Econometrics to Measure Ozone Pollution Externalities C.-Y. Cynthia Lin Agricultural and Resource Economics

  10. STATISTICS MAJOR REQUIREMENTS: ADVISEMENT FORM BACHELOR OF SCIENCE DEGREE

    E-print Network

    Suri, Manil

    STATISTICS MAJOR REQUIREMENTS: ADVISEMENT FORM BACHELOR OF SCIENCE DEGREE MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS Suggested Electives in Other Fields: CMSC 201 Computer Science I for Majors OR CMSC 202 Computer Science II to Econometrics ECON 422 Topics in Econometrics ECON 423 Economic Forecasting IS 410 Introduction to Database

  11. J. Edward Taylor September 2014

    E-print Network

    California at Davis, University of

    : Economic Development, Human Resources, and the Environment; Village and Rural Economy-wide Modeling; Applied Micro-Econometrics Teaching: Applied Microeconomic Theory, Development Economics, Econometrics://www.reap.ucdavis.edu) Co-Director, Program for the Study of Economic Change and Sustainability in Rural Mexico, El Colegio

  12. CREDIT MARKET ACCESS AND PROFITABILITY IN TUNISIAN AGRICULTURE

    E-print Network

    Foltz, Jeremy D.

    CREDIT MARKET ACCESS AND PROFITABILITY IN TUNISIAN AGRICULTURE Abstract This work develops an econometric model that links credit access with agricultural profitability and investment. Using data. Econometric estimates are run for agricultural investment and profitability as a function of credit access

  13. Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

    2013-01-01

    The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

  14. Identifying and estimating the distributional effects of unionization and the long-term consequences of military service

    E-print Network

    Frandsen, Brigham R

    2010-01-01

    This thesis is concerned with the economic consequences for individuals of two important U.S. labor market institutions: unionization and the military draft. The first chapter develops an econometric procedure for estimating ...

  15. 11.126J / 14.48J / 11.249J Economics of Education, Spring 2006

    E-print Network

    Levy, Frank, 1941-

    Discusses the economic aspects of current issues in education, using both economic theory and econometric and institutional readings. Topics include discussion of basic human capital theory; the growing impact of education ...

  16. Weather Factors and Performance of Network Utilities: A Methodology and Application to Electricity Distribution

    E-print Network

    Jamasb, Tooraj; Orea, Luis; Pollitt, Michael G.

    on the costs of electricity distribution networks using parametric techniques. It examines whether the use of popular statistical variable reduction techniques is conceptually and econometrically sound for analyzing the effect of weather on the network costs...

  17. 76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-01

    ... data collection, statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau programs and activities... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology,...

  18. 77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-10

    ..., survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they...: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  19. 78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-11-08

    ... methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to...: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences... areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social...

  20. Graduate School of International Cooperation Studies Curriculum Policy

    E-print Network

    Banbara, Mutsunori

    Economic Cooperation Studies Macroeconomics Development Finance Seminar Advanced Research Advanced Research System Workshop Workshop Advanced Research Economic Development Studies Regional Economics Presentation Econometrics Comparative Economic Development Public Finance Japanese Economic Development Socio-Economic

  1. 14.384 Time Series Analysis, Fall 2008

    E-print Network

    Schrimpf, Paul

    The course provides a survey of the theory and application of time series methods in econometrics. Topics covered will include univariate stationary and non-stationary models, vector autoregressions, frequency domain ...

  2. Master of Science in Marketing Business Core Courses

    E-print Network

    O'Toole, Alice J.

    Marketing Strategy MKT 6V98 Marketing Internship (1-3 credit hours) IMS 6314 Global eBusiness Marketing MIS Marketing IMS 6314 Global e-Business Marketing MECO 6312 Applied Econometrics and Time Series Analysis (or

  3. Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  4. Modeling of Travel Time Variations on Urban Links in London

    E-print Network

    Hasan, Samiul

    An econometric framework was developed to combine data from various sources to identify the key factors contributing to travel time variations in Central London. Nonlinear latent variable regression models that explicitly ...

  5. 14.384 Time Series Analysis, Fall 2007

    E-print Network

    Mikusheva, Anna, 1976-

    The course provides a survey of the theory and application of time series methods in econometrics. Topics covered will include univariate stationary and non-stationary models, vector autoregressions, frequency domain ...

  6. Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

  7. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ...2013-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26...3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January...provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal products accompanied...

  8. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ...2014-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26...3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January...provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal products accompanied...

  9. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ...2012-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26...3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January...provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal products accompanied...

  10. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ...2011-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26...3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January...provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal products accompanied...

  11. 77 FR 16894 - Financial Research Advisory Committee

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-22

    ...the activities of the OFR available to financial regulatory agencies; and --Assisting...experts in the fields of economics, financial institutions and markets, statistical analysis, financial markets analysis, econometrics,...

  12. Minority Utility Rate Design Assessment Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2003-01-20

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to various user-supplied, two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic welfare impact on black, hispanic, poor and majority households.

  13. Energy Policy Socioeconomic Impact Model

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1993-05-13

    Econometric model simulates consumer demand response to residential demand-side management programs and two-part tariff electricity rate designs and assesses their economic impact on various population groups.

  14. 14.33 Economics Research and Communication, Spring 2002

    E-print Network

    Ellison, Sara Fisher

    Designed to expose students to the process of conducting independent research in empirical economics and effectively communicating the results of the research. Begins with an econometric analysis of an assigned economic ...

  15. Forecasting and Risk Simulation: Proposed Analytical Tool

    E-print Network

    Datta, Shoumen

    2008-08-01

    Advances in econometrics and financial mathematics are still confined to use within the domains of stocks, bonds, shares, currency exchanges and derivatives markets. Extracting the principles (see paper by Datta & Granger) ...

  16. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ...false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26 Section...26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of...econometric estimates of demand elasticity for...

  17. Economic investigation of discount factors for agricultural greenhouse gas emission offsets 

    E-print Network

    Kim, Man-Keun

    2005-08-29

    ...................................................29 Markov Model of Land Use Change ..........................................................30 Econometric Model of Land Uses..............................................................33 Land-Share Model....................................................................90 Additionality....................................................................................................90 Estimation of Land Conversion Rates........................................................91 Land Conversion Rates with Markov...

  18. Essays on social networks in development economics

    E-print Network

    Chandrasekhar, Arun Gautham

    2012-01-01

    This thesis examines the role that social networks play in developing economies. The first two chapters analyze econometric issues that arise when researchers work with sampled network data. The final two chapters study ...

  19. THE UNIVERSITY of CHICAGO THE GRADUATE SCHOOL

    E-print Network

    He, Chuan

    Management 57 Managerial and Organizational Behavior 58; Organizations and Markets 59; Strategic Management Communications 51 Econometrics and Statistics 52 Economics 53 Entrepreneurship 54 Financial Management 55 General 60 Human Resource Management 61 International Business 62 Management Science and Information Systems

  20. NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION OF HOUSEHOLD VMT Young-Jun Kweon

    E-print Network

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION ESTIMATION OF HOUSEHOLD VMT Young-Jun Kweon (Corresponding Author variable, or both. This study employs nonparametric econometric techniques to examine the effects Transportation Survey. The results are density functions and regression surfaces for VMT, in relation

  1. Three Essays on Estimation and Testing of Nonparametric Models 

    E-print Network

    Ma, Guangyi

    2012-10-19

    In this dissertation, I focus on the development and application of nonparametric methods in econometrics. First, a constrained nonparametric regression method is developed to estimate a function and its derivatives subject to shape restrictions...

  2. Developing a model for explaining and forecasting international tourist arrivals from the major markets to Malaysia 

    E-print Network

    Chin, Loi Young

    1996-01-01

    four continents except Africa. These markets have distinct differences and characteristics. A model was developed for each of these markets. Demand studies have been based on econometrics or economic variables. Usually these methods lack a theoretical...

  3. Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) Overview

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) utilizes estimated econometric relationships for demand, inventories and prices to forecast energy market outcomes across key sectors and selected regions throughout the United States.

  4. JOSEPH ASUNKA Curriculum Vitae

    E-print Network

    strong support for the predictions of my argument using data collected in Ghana of Ghana, Legon M.Phil. Economics (Econometrics & Health Economics) Thesis: Drivers of Health Outcomes in Ghana University of Ghana, Legon B. Sc., Statistics and Computer

  5. Research Group: Development October 2, 2009 Reflections on Africa's Wars

    E-print Network

    such conflicts at the time, like Ivory Coast and Senegal. A suggestive econometric analysis by Azam et al. (1996 dies. The example of Ivory Coast is illuminating in this respect, where the political capital

  6. Admissible Clustering of Aggregator Components: A Necessary and Sufficient Stochastic Semi-Nonparametric Test for Weak Separability

    E-print Network

    Barnett, William A.; Peretti, Philippe De

    2009-09-01

    importance in aggregation and index number theory and in econometrics, prior attempts to produce statistical tests of weak separability have performed poorly in Monte Carlo studies. This paper introduces a new class of weak separability tests, which...

  7. 14.30 Introduction to Statistical Method in Economics, Spring 2003

    E-print Network

    Ellison, Sara Fisher

    This course will provide a solid foundation in probability and statistics for economists and other social scientists. We will emphasize topics needed in the further study of econometrics and provide basic preparation for ...

  8. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ...but not limited to sample surveys, econometric analyses...undertaken. In the case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the definition...universe under study, the sampling frame, and...

  9. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ...but not limited to sample surveys, econometric analyses...undertaken. In the case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the definition...universe under study, the sampling frame, and...

  10. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ...but not limited to sample surveys, econometric analyses...undertaken. In the case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the definition...universe under study, the sampling frame, and...

  11. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ...but not limited to sample surveys, econometric analyses...undertaken. In the case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the definition...universe under study, the sampling frame, and...

  12. 47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ...but not limited to sample surveys, econometric analyses...undertaken. In the case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the definition...universe under study, the sampling frame, and...

  13. Set identification and sensitivity analysis with Tobin regressors

    E-print Network

    Chernozhukov, Victor V.

    We give semiparametric identification and estimation results for econometric models with a regressor that is endogenous, bound censored, and selected; it is called a Tobin regressor. First, we show that the true parameter ...

  14. The organization and management of nuclear power plants

    E-print Network

    Carroll, John S.

    1990-01-01

    The explanation of aggregate and sectoral investment behavior has been one of the less successful endeavors in empirical economics. Existing econometric models have had little success in explaining or ...

  15. The effect of relationship status on health with dynamic health and persistent relationships.

    PubMed

    Kohn, Jennifer L; Averett, Susan L

    2014-07-01

    The dynamic evolution of health and persistent relationship status pose econometric challenges to disentangling the causal effect of relationships on health from the selection effect of health on relationship choice. Using a new econometric strategy we find that marriage is not universally better for health. Rather, cohabitation benefits the health of men and women over 45, being never married is no worse for health, and only divorce marginally harms the health of younger men. We find strong evidence that unobservable health-related factors can confound estimates. Our method can be applied to other research questions with dynamic dependent and multivariate endogenous variables. PMID:24769050

  16. TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

  17. Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

    2011-01-01

    How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

  18. Table of Contents Introduction

    E-print Network

    Kockelman, Kara M.

    of Economic Analysis 7.6 Input-Output (IO) Modeling The Foundation of the IO Model Using the IO Model Multiplier Analysis Limitations of IO Modeling 7.7 Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Models The CGE Model Double-Counting Creating the IO Model CGE Model Foundation 7.10 References Chapter 8. Econometrics

  19. A comparison of eight metamodeling techniques for the simulation of N2O fluxes and N leaching from corn crops

    E-print Network

    Villa-vialaneix, Nathalie

    more to global warming than the same mass emitted as CO2, on18 the basis of a 100-years time horizon and Sustainability, CCU, Ispra, Italy d European Commission, Econometrics and Applied Statistics Unit, Ispra, Italy. By compar- ing several statistical methods this paper aims to design a metamodel able to approximate

  20. Automatic Synthesis of Both the Topology and Tuning of a Common Parameterized Controller for Two Families of Plants using Genetic

    E-print Network

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Families of Plants using Genetic Programming Martin A. Keane Econometrics Inc. Chicago, Illinois makeane) for a common parameterized controller for all the plants in two families of plants that are representative that it contains free variables representing the characteristics of the particular plant. The genetically evolved

  1. Automatic Synthesis of Both the Topology and Tuning of a Common Parameterized Controller for Two Families of Plants

    E-print Network

    Fernandez, Thomas

    Families of Plants using Genetic Programming Martin A. Keane Econometrics Inc. Chicago, Illinois makeane) for a common parameterized controller for all the plants in two families of plants that are representative that it contains free variables representing the characteristics of the particular plant. The genetically evolved

  2. Tropentag 2010 ETH Zurich, September 14 -16, 2010

    E-print Network

    Lopez-Carr, David

    Security, Natural Resource Management and Rural Development The Spaces and Places of Food Security is said to be food secure. When, conversely, observed demand is less than desired demand, due States since the 1930s. Results Econometric Model Income affects food security measures in many

  3. Modeling EU electricity market competition using the residual supply index

    SciTech Connect

    Swinand, Gregory; Scully, Derek; Ffoulkes, Stuart; Kessler, Brian

    2010-11-15

    An econometric approach to related hourly Residual Supply Index to price-cost margins in the major EU electricity generation markets suggests that market structure, as measured by the RSI, is a significant explanatory factor for markups, even when scarcity and other explanatory variables are included. (author)

  4. Statistics and Its Interface Volume 1 (2008) 255278 Inference for volatility-type objects and

    E-print Network

    Mykland, Per A.

    2008-01-01

    in the statistics and the econometrics literature. However, most of these stud- ies remain at the stageStatistics and Its Interface Volume 1 (2008) 255­278 Inference for volatility-type objects. The modification, in our example, is both substantial and statistically significant. In the inference problem

  5. Parallel processing for large-scale nonlinear control experiments in economics

    SciTech Connect

    Amman, H.M. ); Kendrick, D.A. . Dept. of Economics)

    1991-01-01

    In general, the econometric models relevant for purposes of evaluating economic policy contain a large number of nonlinear equations. Therefore, in applying optimal control techniques, computational difficulties are encountered. This paper presents the most common algorithm for computing nonlinear control problems and investigates the degree to which vector processing and parallel processing can facilitate optimal control experiments.

  6. Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ausrotas, R. A.

    1981-01-01

    International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

  7. Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: The long and the short of it

    E-print Network

    Carlini, David

    Wage-led versus profit-led demand regimes: The long and the short of it Robert A. Blecker* Revised wage-led or profit-led demand regimes based on a variety of econometric methodologies. However, most argues that demand is more likely to be profit led (or, at least, more weakly wage led) in the short run

  8. Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

    Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

  9. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2010-01-01

    The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

  10. Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

    2012-01-01

    This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

  11. Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

    2000-01-01

    Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

  12. School District Leave Policies, Teacher Absenteeism, and Student Achievement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Econometric analysis of data from over 700 New York state school districts found that (1) policies governing use of teacher leave days clearly influence their use; (2) higher student absenteeism correlated with poorer test performance; and (3) teacher absence was not largely associated with student test performance. Changes in leave policy were…

  13. Wind Turbine Shutdowns and Upgrades in Denmark: Timing Decisions and the Impact of Government Policy

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    Wind Turbine Shutdowns and Upgrades in Denmark: Timing Decisions and the Impact of Government structural econometric model of wind turbine owners' decisions about whether and when to add new turbines the underlying profit structure for wind producers and evaluate the impact of technology and government policy

  14. A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

  15. The (Positive) Effect of Macroeconomic Crises on the Schooling and Employment Decisions of Children in a Middle-Income Country.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schady, Norbert R.

    This paper analyzes the effects of the 1988-1992 macroeconomic crisis in Peru on the schooling and employment decisions taken by school-aged children in urban areas. It discusses the Peruvian setting during this period and describes the data used in the analysis and the econometric specification. Two basic findings were made: (1) there was no…

  16. Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

    2013-01-01

    Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

  17. The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng

    2007-01-01

    Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…

  18. Economics Exchange Modules 14/15 Banner Code Module Title Level Credits Semester Module Leader

    E-print Network

    Birmingham, University of

    Honours (Year 3) 10 1 CREES Economics 08 21343 Introduction to International Trade Honours (Year 3) 10 1 03345 Monetary Policy Honours (Year 3) 10 1 Christoph Gortz Economics 08 03615 Game Theory Honours (Year Economics 08 03163 Econometric Theory Honours (Year 3) 10 1 Marco Barassi Economics 07 24240 Behavioural

  19. The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

    2005-01-01

    The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

  20. The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study

    E-print Network

    The North American Forest Sector Outlook Study 2006-2030 Food and Agriculture Organization Outlook Study 2006-2030 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations United Nations Economic, Canada, carbon sequestration, climate change, consumption, demand, econometric, EFSOS, export, fellings

  1. Development of Short-term Demand Forecasting Model Application in Analysis of Resource Adequacy

    E-print Network

    Development of Short-term Demand Forecasting Model And its Application in Analysis of Resource will present the methodology, testing and results from short-term forecasting model developed by Northwest econometrically estimated relationships between loads and temperatures, in a three step process, we developed

  2. A Convex Optimization Approach to Modeling Consumer Heterogeneity in Conjoint Estimation

    E-print Network

    Pontil, Massimiliano

    , Econometric Models, Estimation and Other Statistical Techniques, Hierarchical Bayes Analysis, Marketing-based conjoint estimation using convex optimization and statistical machine learning. We compare our approach with hierarchical Bayes (HB) both theoretically and empirically. Both our methods and HB shrink individual

  3. Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Xu, Yonghong Jade

    2013-01-01

    Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

  4. Finite Sample Properties of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator and of Likelihood Ratio Tests in Hidden Markov Models

    E-print Network

    Timmer, Jens

    in Hidden Markov Models S. Michalek, M. Wagner, and J. Timmer1 FDM-Center for Data Analysis, University al., 1998), communication technology (Elliott et al., 1995), econometrics (Hamilton, 1990) and speech 203­5829, Fax ­7700, E-mail: Jens.Timmer@fdm.uni-freiburg.de #12;used, the applicability of asymptotic

  5. Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Round, David K.

    2007-01-01

    The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

  6. Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

  7. www.gsb.columbia.edu/recruiters Financial Economics

    E-print Network

    organizations where marketing analytics add value. Curriculum Coursework for the Master of Science in Marketing Microeconomics, Financial Statement Analysis, Financial Econometrics, Capital Markets, Finance Theory, and Debt Markets. They also complete a substantial research project. Schedule Students begin their academic program

  8. Curriculum Vitae Neil George Chalmers

    E-print Network

    ), basic production functions and econometrics. 06/2014 ­ 08/2015 Paper collaboration with Dr Sinne Smed? Outline: Modelling carbon consumption taxes on food products for Denmark 06/2013 ­ 04/2015 Worked: Measuring the Degree of Integration on the Dairy Products Market in Malawi [Online]. Agricultural Economics

  9. Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salas-Velasco, Manuel

    2010-01-01

    This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

  10. Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lindert, Peter H.

    2009-01-01

    This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

  11. Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

    2011-01-01

    There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this entanglement we…

  12. Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

  13. TAH(Total Academic Headcount) TAH Campus Student

    E-print Network

    Designated Computer · PC · PC ­ TAH Campus Network Concurrent User · · PC · #12;(R2014b) · MATLABMATLAB TAH 20154 #12; · TAH(Total Academic Headcount) ­ TAH Campus Student · PC ­ TAH Campus Toolbox · Econometrics Toolbox · Embedded Coder · Financial Toolbox · Fixed-Point Designer · Fuzzy Logic

  14. The Effect of Education on Economic Growth in Greece over the 1960-2000 Period

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tsamadias, Constantinos; Prontzas, Panagiotis

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines the impact of education on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000 by applying the model introduced by Mankiw, Romer, and Weil. The findings of the empirical analysis reveal that education had a positive and statistically significant effect on economic growth in Greece over the period 1960-2000. The econometric

  15. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal...

  16. 39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume... § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric estimates of demand elasticity for all postal...

  17. Double doctoral major in Global Affairs & IB Year 1 (2009-2010)

    E-print Network

    :553:607 Global Political Economy 26:553:686 First early research Year 2 (2010-2011) Fall Spring Summer 26 26:553:607 Global Political Economy 26:478:572. Evolution of the Global System 26:478:577. Global:220:507 Econometrics 26:553:607 Global Political Economy #12;

  18. Linear regression issues in astronomy

    E-print Network

    Babu, G. Jogesh

    Linear regression issues in astronomy Eric Feigelson Summer School in astrostatistics References-dependent & Quantitative Variables in Econometrics 1983) Astronomy: Malmquist bias in Hubble diagram (Deeming, Vistas Astr) Schmitt (ApJ 1985) Presented for astronomy by Isobe, Feigelson & Nelson (ApJ 1986) Implemented

  19. Marco Reale PUBLICATIONS

    E-print Network

    Reale, Marco

    . Scarrott (2014) A comparison of spillover effects before, during and after the 2008 financial crisis in temperature reconstruction. Climatic Change, 107, 247­265. 1.9 Robertson, B.L., C.J. Price and M. Reale (2011 trees: an application to market research. Econometric Reviews, 29, 754­777. 1.15 Zhao, X., C. Scarrott

  20. School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

    2007-01-01

    Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

  1. Historical Estimates, 1960-1970, of Occupational Employment for the State SMSA's and Balance of State.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Franchak, Stephen J.; And Others

    The document is the report of a research project designed to provide occupational employment projections for the State of Pennsylvania through the development and use of a computer-based system. Section 1 of the report (11 pages) discusses the three projection methods used: two recommended by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one an econometric

  2. Big Data, Analytics, Data-driven decisions, predictive modeling, machine learning, and so on. All these terms have become ubiquitous in our daily lives.

    E-print Network

    Nagurney, Anna

    Hosted By Big Data, Analytics, Data-driven decisions, predictive modeling, machine learning, and so not the most challenging aspect. The bigger problems facing an Analytics group include Data: Availability analytical areas including Statistics, Operations Research, Econometrics, Forecasting and Data Mining

  3. AGRICULTURAL SIMULATION MODEL (AGSIM)

    EPA Science Inventory

    AGSIM is a large-scale econometric simulation model of regional crop and national livestock production in the United States. The model was initially developed to analyze the aggregate economic impacts of a wide variety issues facing agriculture, such as technological change, pest...

  4. MScinFinance PPPPPPPPrrrrrreeeeeessssssssttttttttiiiiiiiigggggggggggiiiiiiiioooooooouuuuuuusssss

    E-print Network

    Saskatchewan, University of

    and speaking). The minimum accepted score on the IELTS is band 6.5 in all areas. At least 6 credit units (1 year) of Statistics and 3 credit units (1/2 year) of Calculus; a course in Econometrics and Linear

  5. Undergraduate Elective Modules Overview 2015-16 Academic Year

    E-print Network

    Harman, Neal.A.

    and Finance Module List Code Credits Title Code Credits Title Accounting MN-1003 15 Accounting for Business MN-1514 15 Accounting Tools MN-1004 15 Accounting Accounting/Finance MN-1013 15 Finance for Economics & Econometrics MN-1002 15 Maths 1 for Accounting & Finance MN-1503 15 Statistics 1 for Accounting & Finance

  6. Lecturer, Finance Lally School of Management

    E-print Network

    Salama, Khaled

    finance, and financial econometrics are especially desired. The Finance and Accounting area has 10 faculty of Quantitative Finance and Risk Analytics, and a Ph.D. program in Management that includes finance and accounting information, contact: Professor Bill B. Francis, Area Coordinator, Accounting and Finance, email: francb

  7. Spatial-Temporal Models of Insect Growth, Diffusion and Derivative Pricing

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Insect derivatives represent an important innovation in specialty crop risk management. An active over-the-counter market in insect derivatives will require a transparent pricing method. The paper develops an econometric model of the spatio-temporal process underlying a particular insect populatio...

  8. Analytic Methods for Adjusting Subjective Rating Schemes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Richard V. L.; Nelson, Gary R.

    Statistical and econometric techniques of correcting for supervisor bias in models of individual performance appraisal were developed, using a variant of the classical linear regression model. Location bias occurs when individual performance is systematically overestimated or underestimated, while scale bias results when raters either exaggerate…

  9. What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costrell, Robert; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

    2008-01-01

    Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

  10. Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boal, William M.

    1990-01-01

    This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

  11. The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

    This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

  12. Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Michelle Asha

    2009-01-01

    This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

  13. Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

    2012-01-01

    This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

  14. Model Study for an Economic Data Program on the Conditions of Arts and Cultural Institutions. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deane, Robert T.; And Others

    The development of econometric models and a data base to predict the responsiveness of arts institutions to changes in the economy is reported. The study focused on models for museums, theaters (profit and non-profit), symphony, ballet, opera, and dance. The report details four objectives of the project: to identify useful databases and studies on…

  15. Is Private Production of Public Services Cheaper Than Public Production? A Meta-Regression Analysis of Solid Waste and Water Services

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bel, Germa; Fageda, Xavier; Warner, Mildred E.

    2010-01-01

    Privatization of local government services is assumed to deliver cost savings, but empirical evidence for this from around the world is mixed. We conduct a meta-regression analysis of all econometric studies examining privatization of water distribution and solid waste collection services and find no systematic support for lower costs with private…

  16. A Review of Methods Used to Project the Future Supply of Dental Personnel and the Future Demand and Need for Dental Services.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Capilouto, Eli; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Econometric, supply, and manpower models adopted to forecast need and demand for dental services personnel are examined critically, based in part on the models' past success in prediction. Areas of concern and conditions not reflected in the models are noted. All the models are seen to be limited. (MSE)

  17. Potential Impact of Increased Numbers of Physicians upon Physician Behavior, Access to, and Cost of, Medical Care. Final Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Musgrave, Gerald L.

    The potential impact of the increasing supply of physicians on physician behavior, the cost of medical services, and access to services is addressed in detail in this final research report. Econometric modeling and analyses of economic activity within the health sector were undertaken. An eight equation model of the hospital and physician sectors…

  18. A tiered modelling approach for condition based maintenance of industrial assets with load sharing interaction and fault propagation

    E-print Network

    Liang, Zhenglin; Parlikad, Ajith Kumar

    2014-05-24

    , no 1, pp 80–87. Courtois, Pierre-Jacques. 1975. “Error Analysis in Nearly-Completely Decomposable Stochastic Systems.” Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 691–709. Dekker, R., Wildeman, R. E. and van der Duyn Schouten, F. A. (1997) “A...

  19. An Analysis of the Effects of Government Subsidies and the Renewable Fuels Standard on the Fuel Ethanol Industry: A

    E-print Network

    Lin, C.-Y. Cynthia

    Ethanol Industry: A Structural Econometric Model By Fujin Yi, C.-Y. Cynthia Lin, Karen Thome This paper ethanol industry. Analyses that ignore the dynamic implications of these policies, including their effects on incumbent ethanol firms' investment, production, and exit decisions and on potential entrants' entry

  20. Modelling Departure Time Choices by a Heteroskedastic Generalized Logit (Het-GenL) Model

    E-print Network

    Toronto, University of

    Modelling Departure Time Choices by a Heteroskedastic Generalized Logit (Het-GenL) Model 2012 #12;1 Modelling Departure Time Choices by a Heteroskedastic Generalized Logit (Het-GenL) Model.nurulhabib@utoronto.ca Abstract The paper presents an econometric model for departure time choice modelling. The proposed model

  1. Evaluation of variation in nitrate concentration levels in the Raccoon River watershed in Iowa

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Raccoon River Watershed in Iowa has received considerable attention in recent past due to frequent detections of nitrogen concentrations above the federal drinking water standard. This paper econometrically investigates the determinants of variation of nitrogen concentrations in the Raccoon Rive...

  2. Smith&Breeden&Associates&1&August,&2013& Summary&of&Recent&Internships&

    E-print Network

    Wolfe, Patrick J.

    $the$sensitivity$of$our$private$label$mortgage$model$to$ assumptions$about$home$price$appreciation$volatility$and$correlation$across$regions.$$This$ project$involves$loan$status$(delinquency,$foreclosure,$negative$equity)$and$home$sales$information$ (new,$resale,$reo$knowledge$of$probability,$statistics,$applied$econometrics,$and$simulation/optimization$ methods$ · Basic$understanding$of$bond$pricing$and$the$mortgage$market$ · Ability$to

  3. Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco: Can the Government Improve Outcomes? World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 264.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others

    This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…

  4. T H E U N I V E R S I T Y O F THE GRADUATE SCHOOL

    E-print Network

    He, Chuan

    Management 42 Managerial and Organizational Behavior (MOB) 43; Organizations and Markets (O&M) 44; Strategic Communications 36 Econometrics and Statistics 37 Economics 38 Entrepreneurship 39 Financial Management 40 General Management 45 Human Resource Management 46 International Business 47 Marketing Management 48 Operations

  5. The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

    2015-01-01

    Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

  6. Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badua, Frank

    2008-01-01

    The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

  7. e-journal: Information Technology for Economics & Management

    E-print Network

    Fernandez, Thomas

    a reasonable forecast. KEYWORDS: Econometric models; Energy modeling; Natural gas price; Genetic programming in 2000, making it one of the most important energy sources. The dramatic rise of natural gas prices" Liu2 Executive Summary As one of the most important energy resources, natural gas represented 24

  8. GRIFFIN. W L..J. P. NICHOLS. R. G ANDERSON.J. E. BUCKNER. AND 1978. Cost and returns data: Texas shrimp trawlers. Gulf

    E-print Network

    -601. Texas A&M Univ. JUHL. R. 1974. Economics ofthe GulfofMexico industrial and food· fish trawlers. Mar .. R. G. ROMAIN. AND D. W. HUGHES. 1981. Net investment in farm tractors: An econometric analysis. Am United States shrimp fisheries. Mar. Fish. Rev. 39(101:18-24. Wll.SON. R. R.. R. G. THOMPSON. AND R. W

  9. Predisposition Factors of Career and Technical Education Transfer Students: A Hermeneutic Phenomenology Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hioki, Warren Glen

    2009-01-01

    Various econometric, sociological, and combined research models (e.g., Hossler and Gallagher's preeminent Three-Phase Model on College Choice) provide help in understanding high school students in their decision-making stages and college experience. Many studies that utilize these models on college choice strongly substantiate and perpetuate the…

  10. Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

    2015-01-01

    The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

  11. Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    London, Jonathan D.

    2006-01-01

    In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

  12. Sharing Features among Dynamical Systems with Beta Processes

    E-print Network

    Kaski, Samuel

    recog- nition, econometrics, remote target tracking, and human motion capture. Our approach envisions PROCESSING SYSTEMS 2009 Abstract We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of modeling re of latent dynamical behaviors that are shared among multiple time series. The size of the set

  13. Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

  14. Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

    2012-01-01

    Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

  15. New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

    Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

  16. Access to and penetration of ICT in rural Thailand Pitikorn Tengtrakul n

    E-print Network

    Peha, Jon M.

    Access to and penetration of ICT in rural Thailand Pitikorn Tengtrakul n , Jon M. Peha Department Available online 19 January 2011 Keywords: ICT Thailand Developing country Universal service Penetration an econometric study of information and communication technology (ICT) in all 70,000 rural villages in Thailand

  17. ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

  18. An Analysis of Contributions and Contributors in Economic Education Research.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marlin, James W., Jr.; Durden, Garey C.

    1993-01-01

    Reports on a study of 25 years of the content and contributors in economic education research. Finds that economic education has become a legitimate subfield within economics and has grown from mostly descriptive research to sophisticated mathematical and econometric models. (CFR)

  19. School Cost Functions: A Meta-Regression Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Colegrave, Andrew D.; Giles, Margaret J.

    2008-01-01

    The education cost literature includes econometric studies attempting to determine economies of scale, or estimate an optimal school or district size. Not only do their results differ, but the studies use dissimilar data, techniques, and models. To derive value from these studies requires that the estimates be made comparable. One method to do…

  20. Do Workers Accurately Perceive Gender Wage Discrimination?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hampton, Mary B.; Heywood, John S.

    1993-01-01

    Analysis of data from 529 female and 1,343 male physicians found a strong positive correlation between women's perceptions of the gender income differences they experienced and econometric estimates of those differences. Women accurately perceived wage discrimination and used their perception in determining the amount they were underpaid. (SK)

  1. Female-Male Earnings Differentials and Occupational Structure.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Terrell, Katherine

    1992-01-01

    A review of econometric literature on female-male wage differences and asymmetrical distribution in occupations shows that differences in returns to human capital (i.e., discrimination) explains far more of the wage gap than differences in education and experience. Crowding of women into few occupations depresses wages. (SK)

  2. Schools and Labor Market Outcomes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, David L.; And Others

    1997-01-01

    Analyzes econometrically the relationship between individual school characteristics and earnings of students entering the labor force directly from high school, using High School and Beyond data. One category of characteristics, school-to-work interventions, is a predictor. Access to labor-market information and substantial work-for-pay experience…

  3. TIMOTHY D. McBRIDE, Curriculum Vitae, May 11, 2015 TIMOTHY D. McBRIDE

    E-print Network

    Subramanian, Venkat

    Professional Shortage Areas 2002-2010 Member, American Society of Health Economists (ASHE), Scientific Advisory-2007 Member, Agency for Health Care Research and Quality, Health Care Research Training Grant Review Panel of Interest: Health Economics, Health Policy, Economics of Aging, Public Economics, Econometrics Professional

  4. Proceedings of the ASME 2009 International Design Engineering Technical Conferences & Computers and Information in Engineering Conference

    E-print Network

    Papalambros, Panos

    consumer behavior. We assume consumers seek to maximize their expected utility, and the demand (or choice and Information in Engineering Conference IDETC/CIE 2009 August 30-September 2, 2009, San Diego, California, USA of methods for examin- ing econometric models of consumer demand for their suitability in product design

  5. University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

    2011-01-01

    Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

  6. Master of Food and Resource Economics

    E-print Network

    Management FRE 515 Agribusiness Management FRE 516 Financial and Marketing Management in Agri-food IndustriesMaster of Food and Resource Economics Information Sessions Thursday, November 19th Buchanan B307 4 Analysis FRE 502 Food Market Analysis FRE 528 Applied Econometrics FRE 585 Quantitative Methods

  7. Key Management Challenges in Smart Grid

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Duren, Mike

    2012-01-01

    Agenda Awarded in February 2011 Team of industry and research organizations Project Objectives Address difficult issues Complexity Diversity of systems Scale Longevity of solution Participate in standards efforts and working groups Develop innovative key management solutions Modeling and simulation ORNL Cyber Security Econometric Enterprise System Demonstrate effectiveness of solution Demonstrate scalability

  8. Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Strayhorn, Terrell L.

    2008-01-01

    Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

  9. Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

    1979-01-01

    An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

  10. Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mason, Andrew; And Others

    The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

  11. Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

  12. The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Seidel, A. D.

    1974-01-01

    The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  13. Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

    1981-01-01

    The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

  14. An integrated model of human-wildlife interdependence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    John, Kun H.; Walsh, Richard G.; Johnson, R. L.

    1994-01-01

    This paper attempts to integrate wildlife-related ecologic and economic variables into an econometric model. The model reveals empirical evidence of the presumed interdependence of human-wildlife and the holistic nature of humanity's relationship to the ecosystem. Human use of biologic resources varies not only with income, education, and population, but also with sustainability of humankind's action relative to the quality and quantity of the supporting ecological base.

  15. Dynamics of Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCauley, Joseph L.

    2009-09-01

    Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

  16. Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

    1980-01-01

    Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

  17. An Interview with James J. Heckman

    E-print Network

    Ginther, Donna K.

    2010-06-01

    contributions to the study of labor economics, microeconometrics, and the use of micro data in macroeconomic analysis. Heckman’s work is motivated by the scientific method, in which theory is held up to the scrutiny of the data and empirical analysis is informed... by economic theory. During the course of his work, he has made lasting contributions to the study of sample selection bias, duration analysis, heterogeneity, and treatment effects in microeconometrics. In labor economics, he has applied these econometric...

  18. Essays on electricity market reforms: a cross-country applied approach

    E-print Network

    Erdogdu, Erkan

    2013-06-11

    this opportunity to thank various people and institutions without whose extremely generous support this thesis would have hardly been prepared. First of all, I would like to thank my supervisors, Dr. Michael Pollitt and Prof. David Newbery, for all their helpful... comments and suggestions. Special thanks are due to Dr. Paul Kattuman, who provided me with the econometrics background that I have extensively exploited to prepare the thesis. I would like to extend my sincere thanks and appreciation to Mr. Anthony...

  19. Improved (ERTS) information and its impact on U.S. markets for agricultural commodities: A quantitiative economic investigation of production, distribution and net export effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1974-01-01

    An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scope, and architecture of the analysis and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The major empirical results and policy conclusions are set forth. These results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. A number of promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

  20. A note on the distribution of the partial correlation coefficient with nonparametrically estimated marginal regressions

    E-print Network

    Bergsma, Wicher

    2011-01-01

    There has been much interest in the nonparametric testing of conditional independence in the econometric and statistical literature, but the simplest and potentially most useful method, based on the sample partial correlation, seems to have been overlooked, its distribution only having been investigated in some simple parametric instances. The present note shows that an easy to apply permutation test based on the sample partial correlation with nonparametrically estimated marginal regressions has good large and small sample properties.

  1. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  2. Market penetration of new energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Packey, D.J.

    1993-02-01

    This report examines the characteristics, advantages, disadvantages, and, for some, the mathematical formulas of forecasting methods that can be used to forecast the market penetration of renewable energy technologies. Among the methods studied are subjective estimation, market surveys, historical analogy models, cost models, diffusion models, time-series models, and econometric models. Some of these forecasting methods are more effective than others at different developmental stages of new technologies.

  3. Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1976-01-01

    The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

  4. The Local Dimension of Energy

    E-print Network

    Kelly, Scott

    2011-01-31

     occurs  at  the household  level  and  includes  technologies such as solar photovoltaic’s, micro?chp and micro?wind.   2. Community energy initiatives usually evolve through grass?roots community led  organisations... (ESCo), CHP, District Heating JEL Classification Contact sjk64@cama.c.uk Publication January 2011 Financial Support 4CMR, Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge Trusts 1 The Local Dimension of Energy        Scott Kelly1...

  5. DOI: 10.1126/science.1249410 , 1485 (2014);343Science

    E-print Network

    Ramakrishnan, Venki

    2014-01-01

    . Waters et al., Cochrane Database Syst. Rev. 12, CD001871 (2011) Review. 23. J. P. Romano, M. Wolf, J. Am. Med. 148, 1257­1261 (1994). 21. M. A. T. Flynn et al., Obes. Rev. 7 (suppl. 1), 7­66 (2006). 22. E. Stat. Assoc. 100, 94­108 (2005). 24. J. Johnston, J. E. DiNardo, Econometric Methods. (McGraw-Hill, New

  6. India's iron and steel industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1998-10-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's iron and steel sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both growth accounting and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that over the observed period from 1973--74 to 1993--94 productivity declined by 1.71{percent} as indicated by the Translog index. Calculations of the Kendrick and Solow indices support this finding. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's iron and steel sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protective policy regarding price and distribution of iron and steel as well as by large inefficiencies in public sector integrated steel plants. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? Most likely they will not. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with the liberalization of the iron and steel sector, the industry is rapidly moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use in existing and future plants.

  7. Decision support system for utility performance evaluation

    SciTech Connect

    Anselin, L.; Henderson, J.S.

    1985-01-01

    In a previous NRRI report (Anselin, Pike, Smith (1981), ''The Measurement of Electric Utility Performance: Preliminary Analysis''), an overview of several traditional methodologies to achieve this was presented (management audits, financial and engineering indexes, econometric studies), and a new technique based on multicriteria decision analysis was suggested. In this report, the decision analytic method for performance evaluation is considered in more detail, and compared to the more traditional approaches of a total factor productivity index (TFP) and econometric cost function estimates. Utility performance evaluation is considered as part of a decision support system, i.e., the combination of an information system (data base) and a set of operational decision rules (performance indexes). As part of this decision support system, an extensive data on 210 variables for 123 privately owned electric utilities over the period 1964-1981. Multicriteria evaluation techniques, such as the analytic hierarchy process and concordance analysis, and economic techniques, such as a total factor productivity (TFP) index and the residual analysis of econometric short- and long-run cost functions are discussed in detail with respect to their methodological and theoretical foundations. They are also implemented empirically on a common data base, and compared with respect to the resulting performance rating of the companies. 78 references.

  8. India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector has been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.

  9. Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

    2014-12-01

    Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

  10. Gasoline demand in developing Asian countries

    SciTech Connect

    McRae, R.

    1994-12-31

    This paper presents econometric estimates of motor gasoline demand in eleven developing countries of Asia. The price and GDP per capita elasticities are estimated for each country separately, and for several pooled combinations of the countries. The estimated elasticities for the Asian countries are compared with those of the OECD countries. Generally, one finds that the OECD countries have GDP elasticities that are smaller, and price elasticities that are larger (in absolute value). The price elasticities for the low-income Asian countries are more inelastic than for the middle-income Asian countries, and the GDP elasticities are generally more elastic. 13 refs., 6 tabs.

  11. DDT (2,2,bis(p-chlorophenyl) 1,1,1-trichloroethane) induced structural changes in adrenal glands of rats

    SciTech Connect

    Chowdhury, A.R.; Gautam, A.K.; Venkatakrishna-Bhatt, H. )

    1990-08-01

    Oldest chlorinated hydrocarbon insecticide, DDT was used widely to control pest and vector borne diseases in developing countries. Malaria and vector borne diseases can be econometrically controlled by DDT. Chronic and acute exposures to DDT result in systemic disorders in human as well as this confirmed in animals. Experimental study revealed that DDT caused the structural and functional changes in thyroid and reproductive system. The effects of DDT on adrenal glands are not well documented. Therefore this experimental investigation was undertaken to evaluate the histomorphological changes of adrenal gland after the treatment with DDT in rats.

  12. Well-being losses due to care-giving???

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Bernard; Fiebig, Denzil G.; Hall, Jane

    2014-01-01

    This paper estimates the impact of informal caregiving on self-reported well-being. It uses a sample of 23,285 respondents of the first eleven waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA). We apply a relatively new analytical method that enables us to estimate fixed effects ordered logit to analyse subjective well-being. The econometric estimates show that providing informal care has a negative effect on subjective well-being. The empirical evidence of our paper could be helpful to inform policy makers to better understand the impact of caregiving and design the appropriate long term care policies and support services. PMID:24662888

  13. The impact of energy, transport, and trade on air pollution in China

    SciTech Connect

    Poon, J.P.H.; Casas, I.; He, C.F.

    2006-09-15

    A team of U.S.- and China-based geographers examines the relationship between China's economic development and its environment by modeling the effects of energy, transport, and trade on local air pollution emissions (sulfur dioxide and soot particulates) using the Environmental Kuznets model. Specifically, the latter model is investigated using spatial econometrics that take into account potential regional spillover effects from high-polluting neighbors. The analysis finds an inverted-U relationship for sulfur dioxide but a U-shaped curve for soot particulates. This suggests that soot particulates such as black carbon may pose a more serious environmental problem in China than sulfur dioxide.

  14. Risk Assessment Methodology Based on the NISTIR 7628 Guidelines

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    Earlier work describes computational models of critical infrastructure that allow an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the impact of loss per stakeholder resulting from security breakdowns. Here, we consider how to identify, monitor and estimate risk impact and probability for different smart grid stakeholders. Our constructive method leverages currently available standards and defined failure scenarios. We utilize the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Interagency or Internal Reports (NISTIR) 7628 as a basis to apply Cyberspace Security Econometrics system (CSES) for comparing design principles and courses of action in making security-related decisions.

  15. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on heat rates for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W. ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights the heat rate results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the U.S. Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the U.S. population of coal-fired steam generating units. In the study, techno- economic relationships between age and equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), equivalent availability factor (EAF), and heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964-1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant; they are documented elsewhere.

  16. Why is the performance of electric generating units declining

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.

    1983-06-01

    In the general context of declining performance in the electric utility industry, the NERA developed two econometric models of generating unit performance: one to explain annual unit equivalent availability, the other to explain annual unit heat rate. The models try to answer the question, to what extent can performance offset high fuel prices and forestall the need for new capacity. The moving averages of the differences between the earned return for each utility is calculated. The performance of a generating unit is found to decline when earnings are squeezed. This analysis shows that a performance standard should recognize the major differences among generating units.

  17. Consumer behavior towards fuel efficient vehicles. Volume III: forecasts of the composition of household motor vehicle holdings. Final report Oct 77-Feb 80

    SciTech Connect

    Sherman, L.; Manski, C.F.; Ginn, J.R.

    1980-02-01

    This volume presents forecasts of household vehicle type purchases and holdings over the 1978 - 1985 period covered by Title V fuel economy Standards. The forecasts are based on an econometric model explaining the make, model and vintage composition of individual household vehicle holdings. The empirical analysis is based on a national random sample of households contacted in February, 1976. Two models are estimated, one explaining the compositions of holdings in one-vehicle households, and the other explaining vehicle choices in multiple-vehicle households.

  18. Volumetric Pricing of Agricultural Water Supplies: A Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Griffin, Ronald C.; Perry, Gregory M.

    1985-07-01

    Models of water consumption by rice producers are conceptualized and then estimated using cross-sectional time series data obtained from 16 Texas canal operators for the years 1977-1982. Two alternative econometric models demonstrate that both volumetric and flat rate water charges are strongly and inversely related to agricultural water consumption. Nonprice conservation incentives accompanying flat rates are hypothesized to explain the negative correlation of flat rate charges and water consumption. Application of these results suggests that water supply organizations in the sample population converting to volumetric pricing will generally reduce water consumption.

  19. Parameter Evaluation of a Simple Mean-Field Model of Social Interaction

    E-print Network

    Ignacio Gallo; Adriano Barra; Pierluigi Contucci

    2008-11-20

    The aim of this work is to implement a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. A class of simple mean field discrete models is introduced and discussed both from the theoretical and phenomenological point of view. We propose a parameter evaluation procedure and test it by fitting our model against three families of data coming from different cases: the estimated interaction parameters are found to have similar positive values establishing a quantitative confirmation of the peer imitation behavior found in social psychology. Moreover all the values of the interaction parameters belong to the phase transition regime suggesting its possible role in the study of social systems.

  20. What is Learned from Longitudinal Studies of Advertising and Youth Drinking and Smoking? A Critical Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Nelson, Jon P

    2010-01-01

    This paper assesses the methodology employed in longitudinal studies of advertising and youth drinking and smoking behaviors. These studies often are given a causal interpretation in the psychology and public health literatures. Four issues are examined from the perspective of econometrics. First, specification and validation of empirical models. Second, empirical issues associated with measures of advertising receptivity and exposure. Third, potential endogeneity of receptivity and exposure variables. Fourth, sample selection bias in baseline and follow-up surveys. Longitudinal studies reviewed include 20 studies of youth drinking and 26 studies of youth smoking. Substantial shortcomings are found in the studies, which preclude a causal interpretation. PMID:20617009

  1. Barriers to energy-efficiency in electricity generation in India

    SciTech Connect

    Khanna, M. . Dept. of Agricultural and Consumer Economics); Zilberman, D. . Dept. of Agricultural and Resource Economics)

    1999-01-01

    This paper explores the sources and magnitude of energy-inefficiency in the electricity generating sector in India and its implications for carbon emissions from this sector. An econometric methodology is developed to disaggregate and quantify the contribution of technical and institutional factors to this inefficiency. The analysis demonstrates the potential for institutional and economic policy reforms that provide incentives for the adoption of efficiency-enhancing production practices to reduce carbon emissions while increasing net electricity generation, even with the existing capital equipment.

  2. The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cyr, K. J.

    1981-01-01

    The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

  3. Law of the Sea treaty and the regulation of nodule exploitation

    SciTech Connect

    Adams, F.G.

    1980-01-01

    The production of nonferrous metals from manganese nodules from the ocean floor has potential impact on the prices of cobalt, copper, nickel, and manganese and on the earnings of land-based producers. These effects must be considered in the Law of the Sea negotiations. Econometric models are used to evaluate the impact of nodule production on the less-developed countries (LDC) producers. It was found that the price impact is greater for cobalt, whose nodule production is very large relative to conventional output, but that the impact on LDC earnings is greater for copper and nickel. 13 references, 5 tables.

  4. Chapter12

    Cancer.gov

    The demands for tobacco products, however, differ from those for most other products because of the addictive drug they contain—i.e., nicotine. For years, the conventional wisdom was that addictive consumption was an irrational behavior that did not follow the basic laws of economics, includ-ing that of the downward sloping demand curve. However, a variety of econometric studies conducted over the past several decades clearly indicate that cigarette smoking and other tobacco use are not exceptions to the principles of economics.

  5. Parameter Evaluation of a Simple Mean-Field Model of Social Interaction

    E-print Network

    Gallo, Ignacio; Contucci, Pierluigi

    2008-01-01

    The aim of this work is to implement a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. A class of simple mean field discrete models is introduced and discussed both from the theoretical and phenomenological point of view. We propose a parameter evaluation procedure and test it by fitting our model against three families of data coming from different cases: the estimated interaction parameters are found to have similar positive values establishing a quantitative confirmation of the peer imitation behavior found in social psychology. Moreover all the values of the interaction parameters belong to the phase transition regime suggesting its possible role in the study of social systems.

  6. Migration plans and hours of work in Malaysia.

    PubMed

    Gillin, E D; Sumner, D A

    1985-01-01

    "This article describes characteristics of prospective migrants in the Malaysian Family Life Survey and investigates how planning to move affects hours of work. [The authors] use ideas about intertemporal substitution...to discuss the response to temporary and permanent wage expectations on the part of potential migrants. [An] econometric section presents reduced-form estimates for wage rates and planned migration equations and two-stage least squares estimates for hours of work. Men currently planning a move were found to work fewer hours. Those originally planning only a temporary stay at their current location work more hours." PMID:12280256

  7. Generalized Stochastic Gradient Learning

    E-print Network

    Evans, George W.; Honkapohja, Seppo; Williams, Noah

    2006-03-14

    a “perceived law of motion” (PLM) of the form yt = a+ bwt and estimate the parameters a and b econometrically. Thus at time t agents have the estimated PLM: E?t yt = at + btwt, which implies the forecast function E?t yt+1 = at + btFwt. To simplify... the analysis we have assumed that F is known, but it would be straightforward to allow F also to be estimated, and our results would be in essence unaffected. Any given PLM induces an “actual law of motion” (ALM) that gives the temporary equilibrium value of yt...

  8. Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

    PubMed

    Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

    2015-09-01

    Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. PMID:26119330

  9. Estimating economic value of agricultural water under changing conditions and the effects of spatial aggregation.

    PubMed

    Medellín-Azuara, Josué; Harou, Julien J; Howitt, Richard E

    2010-11-01

    Given the high proportion of water used for agriculture in certain regions, the economic value of agricultural water can be an important tool for water management and policy development. This value is quantified using economic demand curves for irrigation water. Such demand functions show the incremental contribution of water to agricultural production. Water demand curves are estimated using econometric or optimisation techniques. Calibrated agricultural optimisation models allow the derivation of demand curves using smaller datasets than econometric models. This paper introduces these subject areas then explores the effect of spatial aggregation (upscaling) on the valuation of water for irrigated agriculture. A case study from the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin in North Mexico investigates differences in valuation at farm and regional aggregated levels under four scenarios: technological change, warm-dry climate change, changes in agricultural commodity prices, and water costs for agriculture. The scenarios consider changes due to external shocks or new policies. Positive mathematical programming (PMP), a calibrated optimisation method, is the deductive valuation method used. An exponential cost function is compared to the quadratic cost functions typically used in PMP. Results indicate that the economic value of water at the farm level and the regionally aggregated level are similar, but that the variability and distributional effects of each scenario are affected by aggregation. Moderately aggregated agricultural production models are effective at capturing average-farm adaptation to policy changes and external shocks. Farm-level models best reveal the distribution of scenario impacts. PMID:19732940

  10. India's Fertilizer Industry: Productivity and Energy Efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, K.; Sathaye, J.

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's fertilizer sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Our analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the fertilizer sector increased by 2.3% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's fertilizer sector has been biased towards the use of energy, while it has been capital and labor saving. The increase in productivity took place during the era of total control when a retention price system and distribution control was in effect. With liberalization of the fertilizer sector and reduction of subsidies productivity declined substantially since the early 1990s. Industrial policies and fiscal incentives still play a major role in the Indian fertilizer sect or. As substantial energy savings and carbon reduction potential exists, energy policies can help overcome barriers to the adoption of these measures in giving proper incentives and correcting distorted prices.

  11. Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

    PubMed

    Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

    2015-04-01

    This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country. PMID:24910313

  12. The regional costs and benefits of acid rain control

    SciTech Connect

    Berkman, M.P.

    1991-01-01

    Congress recently enacted acid rain control legislation as part of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments following a decade-long debate among disparate regional interests. Although Congress succeeded in drafting a law acceptable to all regions, the regional costs and benefits of the legislation remain uncertain. The research presented here attempts to estimate the regional costs and benefits and the economic impacts of acid rain controls. These estimates are made using a modeling system composed of econometric, linear programming and input-output models. The econometric and linear programming components describe markets for electricity and coal. The outputs of these components including capital investment, electricity demand, and coal production are taken as exogenous inputs by a multiregional input-output model. The input-output model produces estimates of changes in final demand, gross output, and employment. The utility linear programming model also predicts sulfur dioxide emissions (an acid-rain precursor). According to model simulations, the costs of acid rain control exceed the benefits for many regions including several regions customarily thought to be the major beneficiaries of acid rain control such as New England.

  13. An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

    PubMed

    Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability. PMID:25034751

  14. Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowen, Eric

    In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

  15. What roles do contemporaneous and cumulative incomes play in the income-child health gradient for young children? Evidence from an Australian panel.

    PubMed

    Khanam, Rasheda; Nghiem, Hong Son; Connelly, Luke Brian

    2014-08-01

    The literature to date shows that children from poorer households tend to have worse health than their peers, and the gap between them grows with age. We investigate whether and how health shocks (as measured by the onset of chronic conditions) contribute to the income-child health gradient and whether the contemporaneous or cumulative effects of income play important mitigating roles. We exploit a rich panel dataset with three panel waves called the Longitudinal Study of Australian children. Given the availability of three waves of data, we are able to apply a range of econometric techniques (e.g. fixed and random effects) to control for unobserved heterogeneity. The paper makes several contributions to the extant literature. First, it shows that an apparent income gradient becomes relatively attenuated in our dataset when the cumulative and contemporaneous effects of household income are distinguished econometrically. Second, it demonstrates that the income-child health gradient becomes statistically insignificant when controlling for parental health and health-related behaviours or unobserved heterogeneity. PMID:23780648

  16. Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

  17. Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the Mabel Survey.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Terence C; Trivedi, Pravin K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates the nature and consequences of sample attrition in a unique longitudinal survey of medical doctors. We describe the patterns of non-response and examine if attrition affects the econometric analysis of medical labour market outcomes using the estimation of physician earnings equations as a case study. We compare the econometric gestimates obtained from a number of different modelling strategies, which are as follows: balanced versus unbalanced samples; an attrition model for panel data based on the classic sample selection model; and a recently developed copula-based selection model. Descriptive evidence shows that doctors who work longer hours, have lower years of experience, are overseas trained and have changed their work location are more likely to drop out. Our analysis suggests that the impact of attrition on inference about the earnings of general practitioners is small. For specialists, there appears to be some evidence for an economically significant bias. Finally, we discuss how the top-up samples in the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life survey can be used to address the problem of panel attrition. PMID:26033504

  18. An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

    2014-09-01

    Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

  19. Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loomis, John

    2003-04-01

    Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

  20. India's cement industry: Productivity, energy efficiency and carbon emissions

    SciTech Connect

    Schumacher, Katja; Sathaye, Jayant

    1999-07-01

    Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's cement sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. Analysis shows that in the twenty year period, 1973 to 1993, productivity in the aluminum sector increased by 0.8% per annum. An econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's cement sector has been biased towards the use of energy and capital, while it has been material and labor saving. The increase in productivity was mainly driven by a period of progress between 1983 and 1991 following partial decontrol of the cement sector in 1982. The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency in the sector. Their analysis shows that the Indian cement sector is moving towards world-best technology, which will result in fewer carbon emissions and more efficient energy use. However, substantial further energy savings and carbon reduction potentials still exist.

  1. Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model (18-sector version)

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, M.H. . Dept. of Physics); Thimmapuram, P.; Fisher, R.E.; Maciorowski, W. )

    1993-05-01

    The new 18-sector Long-term Industrial Energy Forecasting (LIEF) model is designed for convenient study of future industrial energy consumption, taking into account the composition of production, energy prices, and certain kinds of policy initiatives. Electricity and aggregate fossil fuels are modeled. Changes in energy intensity in each sector are driven by autonomous technological improvement (price-independent trend), the opportunity for energy-price-sensitive improvements, energy price expectations, and investment behavior. Although this decision-making framework involves more variables than the simplest econometric models, it enables direct comparison of an econometric approach with conservation supply curves from detailed engineering analysis. It also permits explicit consideration of a variety of policy approaches other than price manipulation. The model is tested in terms of historical data for nine manufacturing sectors, and parameters are determined for forecasting purposes. Relatively uniform and satisfactory parameters are obtained from this analysis. In this report, LIEF is also applied to create base-case and demand-side management scenarios to briefly illustrate modeling procedures and outputs.

  2. Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

    PubMed

    Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

    2014-01-30

    Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method. PMID:24570579

  3. Economic-based projections of future land use in the conterminous United States under alternative policy scenarios.

    PubMed

    Radeloff, V C; Nelson, E; Plantinga, A J; Lewis, D J; Helmers, D; Lawler, J J; Withey, J C; Beaudry, F; Martinuzzi, S; Butsic, V; Lonsdorf, E; White, D; Polasky, S

    2012-04-01

    Land-use change significantly contributes to biodiversity loss, invasive species spread, changes in biogeochemical cycles, and the loss of ecosystem services. Planning for a sustainable future requires a thorough understanding of expected land use at the fine spatial scales relevant for modeling many ecological processes and at dimensions appropriate for regional or national-level policy making. Our goal was to construct and parameterize an econometric model of land-use change to project future land use to the year 2051 at a fine spatial scale across the conterminous United States under several alternative land-use policy scenarios. We parameterized the econometric model of land-use change with the National Resource Inventory (NRI) 1992 and 1997 land-use data for 844 000 sample points. Land-use transitions were estimated for five land-use classes (cropland, pasture, range, forest, and urban). We predicted land-use change under four scenarios: business-as-usual, afforestation, removal of agricultural subsidies, and increased urban rents. Our results for the business-as-usual scenario showed widespread changes in land use, affecting 36% of the land area of the conterminous United States, with large increases in urban land (79%) and forest (7%), and declines in cropland (-16%) and pasture (-13%). Areas with particularly high rates of land-use change included the larger Chicago area, parts of the Pacific Northwest, and the Central Valley of California. However, while land-use change was substantial, differences in results among the four scenarios were relatively minor. The only scenario that was markedly different was the afforestation scenario, which resulted in an increase of forest area that was twice as high as the business-as-usual scenario. Land-use policies can affect trends, but only so much. The basic economic and demographic factors shaping land-use changes in the United States are powerful, and even fairly dramatic policy changes, showed only moderate deviations from the business-as-usual scenario. Given the magnitude of predicted land-use change, any attempts to identify a sustainable future or to predict the effects of climate change will have to take likely land-use changes into account. Econometric models that can simulate land-use change for broad areas with fine resolution are necessary to predict trends in ecosystem service provision and biodiversity persistence. PMID:22645830

  4. Competitive electricity markets, prices and generator entry and exit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ethier, Robert George

    The electric power industry in the United States is quickly being deregulated and restructured. In the past, new electric generation capacity was added by regulated utilities to meet forecasted demand levels and maintain reserve margins. With competitive wholesale generation, investment will be the responsibility of independent private investors. Electricity prices will assume the coordinating function which has until recently been the responsibility of regulatory agencies. Competitive prices will provide the entry and exit signals for generators in the future. Competitive electricity markets have a distinctive price formation process, and thus require a specialized price model. A mean-reverting price process with stochastic jumps is proposed as an appropriate long-run price process for annual electricity prices. This price process is used to develop an analytic real options model for private investment decisions. The required recursive infinite series solutions have not been widely used for real option models. Entry thresholds and asset values for competitive wholesale electricity markets, and exit decisions for plants with significant retirement costs (i.e. nuclear power plants), are examined. The proposed model results in significantly lower trigger prices for both entry and exit decisions, and higher asset values, when compared with other standard models. The model is used to show that the incentives for retiring a nuclear plant are very sensitive to the treatment of decommissioning costs (e.g. if plant owners do not face full decommissioning costs, retirement decisions may be economically premature.) An econometric model of short-run price behavior is estimated by the method of maximum likelihood using daily electricity prices from markets in the USA and Australia. The model specifies two mean reverting price processes with stochastic Markov switching between the regimes, which allows discontinuous jumps in electricity prices. Econometric tests show that a two regime model is preferred to a single regime model, providing an explanation for the observed price spikes in electricity markets. The Markov specification is also supported by econometric tests, suggesting that price spikes persist. The two-regime model produces option values that differ markedly from those generated by a conventional mean reverting model with no stochastic jumps.

  5. A cost function for HIV prevention services: is there a 'u' – shape?

    PubMed Central

    Guinness, Lorna; Kumaranayake, Lilani; Hanson, Kara

    2007-01-01

    Background Global resource needs estimation is a critical part of addressing the HIV/AIDS epidemic. To generate these estimates knowledge of costs and cost structures is required. The evidence base for costs of HIV prevention programmes is limited. Even less is known about the existence of economies scale and whether, as economic theory suggests, average costs form a 'u'-shaped curve as scale increases. Using an econometric analysis, this paper addresses this question by estimating marginal costs and economies of scale for HIV prevention programmes for vulnerable groups in Southern India with different levels of coverage. Methods Two hybrid translog-cost functions were estimated. First, expenditure data from 78 state-funded HIV prevention projects in Andhra Pradesh were used to explore the impact of scale, institutional history and price on costs; second, economic cost data from 16 commercial sex worker projects across Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh were analysed to additionally assess the impact of the value of inputs not reported in expenditure data and location. Coefficient estimates were used to calculate marginal costs and economies of scale. Results The econometric model yielded a good fit (R2 = 0.46, p < 0.001 and R2 = 0.79, p < 0.001, for the expenditure and economic cost datasets, respectively). The economies of scale index was greater than 1 for both datasets and fell as coverage increased. Analysis of the expenditure data found economies of scale were not exhausted, with a 0.002% change in total cost for each extra person reached and an 11% difference in total cost between target group categories. Estimation using the economic cost data suggests a point of minimum efficient scale at around 1750–2000 people reached, a 0.03% change in total cost for each extra person reached, and 28% lower costs in Tamil Nadu than Andhra Pradesh. Conclusion Econometric analysis of these standardized datasets provides insights into how costs change with coverage, the impact of project location and nature of the project target group. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding the nature of the cost function when designing, budgeting and estimating resource requirements for scaling up coverage of HIV prevention projects. PMID:17983475

  6. Quantifying Availability in SCADA Environments Using the Cyber Security Metric MFC

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Rabai, Latifa Ben Arfa; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are distributed networks dispersed over large geographic areas that aim to monitor and control industrial processes from remote areas and/or a centralized location. They are used in the management of critical infrastructures such as electric power generation, transmission and distribution, water and sewage, manufacturing/industrial manufacturing as well as oil and gas production. The availability of SCADA systems is tantamount to assuring safety, security and profitability. SCADA systems are the backbone of the national cyber-physical critical infrastructure. Herein, we explore the definition and quantification of an econometric measure of availability, as it applies to SCADA systems; our metric is a specialization of the generic measure of mean failure cost.

  7. National health expenditures: a global analysis.

    PubMed

    Murray, C J; Govindaraj, R; Musgrove, P

    1994-01-01

    As part of the background research to the World development report 1993: investing in health, an effort was made to estimate public, private and total expenditures on health for all countries of the world. Estimates could be found for public spending for most countries, but for private expenditure in many fewer countries. Regressions were used to predict the missing values of regional and global estimates. These econometric exercises were also used to relate expenditure to measures of health status. In 1990 the world spent an estimated US$ 1.7 trillion (1.7 x 10(12) on health, or $1.9 trillion (1.9 x 10(12)) in dollars adjusted for higher purchasing power in poorer countries. This amount was about 60% public and 40% private in origin. However, as incomes rise, public health expenditure tends to displace private spending and to account for the increasing share of incomes devoted to health. PMID:7923542

  8. Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jacobson, I. D.

    1978-01-01

    Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

  9. Economic considerations for bariatric surgery and morbid obesity.

    PubMed

    Frezza, Eldo E; Wacthell, Mitchell; Ewing, Bradley

    2009-01-01

    The obesity epidemic is also an economic tragedy. This analysis evaluates the economic effects and the potential to improve the well-being of both individual and societal wealth. Econometric techniques should carefully assess the degree to which obesity affects declines in business output, employment, income, and tax revenues at the regional and national levels. Microeconomics assesses lost productivity and associated wages and profit. Macroeconomics assesses trends associated with employment, inflation, interest rates, money supply, and output. To decrease the adverse economic consequences of the obesity epidemic, policy makers must emphasize bariatric surgery as a cost-effective option for qualified patients. Early intervention, education, and tax rebates for obese individuals who undergo bariatric surgery and for medical centers and doctors would likely have positive economic effects on the whole economy in a few years. PMID:21935309

  10. Are tax subsidies for private medical insurance self-financing? Evidence from a microsimulation model.

    PubMed

    López Nicolás, Angel; Vera-Hernández, Marcos

    2008-09-01

    This paper develops an empirical strategy to estimate whether subsidies to private medical insurance are self-financing in countries where public and private insurance coexist and the latter covers the same treatments as the former. We construct a simulation routine based on a micro-econometric discrete choice model that allows us to evaluate the impact of premium changes on the utilization of outpatient and inpatient health care services. As an application, we estimate the budgetary effects of scrapping a subsidy from the purchase of individual private policies, using micro-data from Catalonia. Our results suggest that the subsidy is not self-financing. This result is driven by the fact that private medical insurance holders make concurrent use of public and private services, and by the price inelasticity of the demand for private policies. PMID:18692262

  11. Aggregate vehicle travel forecasting model

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.; Chin, Shih-Miao; Gibson, R.

    1995-05-01

    This report describes a model for forecasting total US highway travel by all vehicle types, and its implementation in the form of a personal computer program. The model comprises a short-run, econometrically-based module for forecasting through the year 2000, as well as a structural, scenario-based longer term module for forecasting through 2030. The short-term module is driven primarily by economic variables. It includes a detailed vehicle stock model and permits the estimation of fuel use as well as vehicle travel. The longer-tenn module depends on demographic factors to a greater extent, but also on trends in key parameters such as vehicle load factors, and the dematerialization of GNP. Both passenger and freight vehicle movements are accounted for in both modules. The model has been implemented as a compiled program in the Fox-Pro database management system operating in the Windows environment.

  12. Two essays on real-time pricing of electric power

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Nainish Kumar

    1997-09-01

    This dissertation contains two essays on a new innovative pricing mechanism in the electric power industry known as Real Time Pricing (RTP). RTP is a method of pricing electric power wherein at least one component of the price is set at or near levels that reflect the marginal costs of providing power during each time-specific interval. These prices vary in accord with time-specific, incremental supplier costs. RTP allows customers to manage their own bills by adjusting their consumption as spot prices and supplier costs vary, which may amount during a single day from 2 cents to 85 cents for one kilowatt hour (kWh) of usage. Using 1995 data the hypothesis that industrial customers shift their usage patterns of electricity in response to real time prices is tested. To measure customer responsiveness to real time electric rates, econometric techniques are applied to estimate demand elasticities.

  13. The transfer of technological know-how to developing countries: Technology licensing, tacit knowledge, and the acquisition of technological capability

    SciTech Connect

    Arora, A.

    1992-01-01

    Indian technology policy appears to have been based on the promise that though technology imports are important for growth, it could hinder technological effort in the recipient country. A model with two technology importing firms and a technical input supplying domestic sector competing with technology suppliers in the developed world is analyzed. Domestic purchases convey a beneficial externality on other users so that the resulting market outcome is inefficient. However, absent synergies between technological efforts of users and the learning activities in the domestic technical input sector, restricting technology imports will not encourage domestic technological efforts. The empirical literature suggests that technological efforts and technology imports are complements. Many of these econometric studies on the subject are found to suffer from methodological problems. A unifying framework and a simple way of testing for complementarities between decision variables using reduced form regressions is provided.

  14. "Malaria and Primary education in Mali: a longitudinal study in the village of Donéguébougou."

    PubMed Central

    Sissoko, Mahamadou S; Toure, Ousmane B; Kamate, Paul; Berthelemy, Jean-Claude; Doumbo, Ogobara K

    2010-01-01

    This article assesses the role of malaria and certain social determinants on primary education, especially on educational achievement in Donéguébougou, a small village in a malaria-endemic area near Bamako, Mali. Field data was collected by the authors between November 2007 and June 2008 on 227 schoolchildren living in Donéguébougou. Various malaria indicators and econometric models were used to explain the variation in cognitive abilities, teachers' evaluation scores, school progression and absences. Malaria is the primary cause of school absences. Fixed effects estimates showed that asymptomatic malaria and the presence of falciparum malaria parasites had a direct correlation with educational achievement and cognitive performance. The evidence suggests that the correlation is causal. PMID:20413198

  15. Using Weather Data and Climate Model Output in Economic Analyses of Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Auffhammer, Maximilian; Hsiang, Solomon M.; Schlenker, Wolfram; Sobel, Adam H.

    2013-06-28

    Economists are increasingly using weather data and climate model output in analyses of the economic impacts of climate change. This article introduces a set of weather data sets and climate models that are frequently used, discusses the most common mistakes economists make in using these products, and identifies ways to avoid these pitfalls. We first provide an introduction to weather data, including a summary of the types of datasets available, and then discuss five common pitfalls that empirical researchers should be aware of when using historical weather data as explanatory variables in econometric applications. We then provide a brief overview of climate models and discuss two common and significant errors often made by economists when climate model output is used to simulate the future impacts of climate change on an economic outcome of interest.

  16. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

  17. New constraints in absorptive capacity and the optimum rate of petroleum output

    SciTech Connect

    El Mallakh, R

    1980-01-01

    Economic policy in four oil-producing countries is analyzed within a framework that combines a qualitative assessment of the policy-making process with an empirical formulation based on historical and current trends in these countries. The concept of absorptive capacity is used to analyze the optimum rates of petroleum production in Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait. A control solution with an econometric model is developed which is then modified for alternative development strategies based on analysis of factors influencing production decisions. The study shows the consistencies and inconsistencies between the goals of economic growth, oil production, and exports, and the constraints on economic development. Simulation experiments incorporated a number of the constraints on absorptive capacity. Impact of other constraints such as income distribution and political stability is considered qualitatively. (DLC)

  18. Quantifying the Impact of Unavailability in Cyber-Physical Environments

    SciTech Connect

    Aissa, Anis Ben; Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Federick T.; Mili, Ali

    2014-01-01

    The Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system discussed in this work manages a distributed control network for the Tunisian Electric & Gas Utility. The network is dispersed over a large geographic area that monitors and controls the flow of electricity/gas from both remote and centralized locations. The availability of the SCADA system in this context is critical to ensuring the uninterrupted delivery of energy, including safety, security, continuity of operations and revenue. Such SCADA systems are the backbone of national critical cyber-physical infrastructures. Herein, we propose adapting the Mean Failure Cost (MFC) metric for quantifying the cost of unavailability. This new metric combines the classic availability formulation with MFC. The resulting metric, so-called Econometric Availability (EA), offers a computational basis to evaluate a system in terms of the gain/loss ($/hour of operation) that affects each stakeholder due to unavailability.

  19. The impact of economic, political and social globalization on overweight and obesity in the 56 low and middle income countries

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Lobstein, Tim; James, W. Philip T.; Suhrcke, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Anecdotal and descriptive evidence has led to the claim that globalization plays a major role in inducing overweight and obesity in developing countries, but robust quantitative evidence is scarce. We undertook extensive econometric analyses of several datasets, using a series of new proxies for different dimensions of globalization potentially affecting overweight in up to 887,000 women aged 15–49 living in 56 countries between 1991 and 2009. After controlling for relevant individual and country level factors, globalization as a whole is substantially and significantly associated with an increase in the individual propensity to be overweight among women. Surprisingly, political and social globalization dominate the influence of the economic dimension. Hence, more consideration needs to be given to the forms of governance required to shape a more health-oriented globalization process. PMID:25841097

  20. The relation between global migration and trade networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sgrignoli, Paolo; Metulini, Rodolfo; Schiavo, Stefano; Riccaboni, Massimo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper we develop a methodology to analyze and compare multiple global networks, focusing our analysis on the relation between human migration and trade. First, we identify the subset of products for which the presence of a community of migrants significantly increases trade intensity, where to assure comparability across networks we apply a hypergeometric filter that lets us identify those links which intensity is significantly higher than expected. Next, proposing a new way to define country neighbors based on the most intense links in the trade network, we use spatial econometrics techniques to measure the effect of migration on international trade, while controlling for network interdependences. Overall, we find that migration significantly boosts trade across countries and we are able to identify product categories for which this effect is particularly strong.

  1. Potential niche markets for biodiesel and their effects on agriculture

    SciTech Connect

    Raneses, A.R.; Glaser, L.K.; Price, J.M.

    1996-12-31

    This analysis estimates possible biodiesel demand in three niche markets the biodiesel industry has identified as likely candidates for commercialization: federal fleets, mining, and marine/estuary areas. If a 20-percent biodiesel blend becomes a competitive alternative fuel in the coming years, these markets could demand as much as 379 million liters (100 million gallons) of biodiesel. The Food and Agricultural Policy Simulator, an econometric model of U.S. agriculture, was used to estimate the impacts of 76, 193, and 379 million liters (20, 50, and 100 million gallons) of soybean-oil-based biodiesel production on the agricultural sector. The results indicate the effect of increased soybean oil demand on the soybean complex (beans, oil, and meal) and U.S. farm income would be small, but livestock producers and consumers could benefit from low meat prices.

  2. Effects of urban growth controls on intercity commuting.

    PubMed

    Ogura, Laudo M

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents an empirical study of the effects of urban growth controls on the intercity commuting of workers. Growth controls (land use regulations that attempt to restrict population growth and urban sprawl) have increased housing prices and diverted population growth to uncontrolled cities. It has been suggested that resulting changes in local labour supply might stimulate intercity commuting from uncontrolled to controlled cities. To test this hypothesis, a gravity model of commuting flows between places in California is estimated using alternative econometric methods (OLS, Heckman selection and count-data). The possibility of spatial dependence in commuting flows is also taken into consideration. Results suggest larger commuting flows to destination places that restrict residential growth. PMID:20722227

  3. Understanding Civil War Violence through Military Intelligence: Mining Civilian Targeting Records from the Vietnam War

    E-print Network

    Douglass, Rex W

    2015-01-01

    Military intelligence is underutilized in the study of civil war violence. Declassified records are hard to acquire and difficult to explore with the standard econometrics toolbox. I investigate a contemporary government database of civilians targeted during the Vietnam War. The data are detailed, with up to 45 attributes recorded for 73,712 individual civilian suspects. I employ an unsupervised machine learning approach of cleaning, variable selection, dimensionality reduction, and clustering. I find support for a simplifying typology of civilian targeting that distinguishes different kinds of suspects and different kinds targeting methods. The typology is robust, successfully clustering both government actors and rebel departments into groups that mirror their known functions. The exercise highlights methods for dealing with high dimensional found conflict data. It also illustrates how aggregating measures of political violence masks a complex underlying empirical data generating process as well as a comple...

  4. On approximate pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation for LARCH-processes

    E-print Network

    Beran, Jan; 10.3150/09-BEJ189

    2010-01-01

    Linear ARCH (LARCH) processes were introduced by Robinson [J. Econometrics 47 (1991) 67--84] to model long-range dependence in volatility and leverage. Basic theoretical properties of LARCH processes have been investigated in the recent literature. However, there is a lack of estimation methods and corresponding asymptotic theory. In this paper, we consider estimation of the dependence parameters for LARCH processes with non-summable hyperbolically decaying coefficients. Asymptotic limit theorems are derived. A central limit theorem with $\\sqrt{n}$-rate of convergence holds for an approximate conditional pseudo-maximum likelihood estimator. To obtain a computable version that includes observed values only, a further approximation is required. The computable estimator is again asymptotically normal, however with a rate of convergence that is slower than $\\sqrt{n}.$

  5. Increased reward value of non-social stimuli in children and adolescents with autism

    PubMed Central

    Watson, Karli K.; Miller, Stephanie; Hannah, Eleanor; Kovac, Megan; Damiano, Cara R.; Sabatino-DiCrisco, Antoinette; Turner-Brown, Lauren; Sasson, Noah J.; Platt, Michael L.; Dichter, Gabriel S.

    2015-01-01

    An econometric choice task was used to estimate the implicit reward value of social and non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in children and adolescents with (n = 12) and without (n = 22) autism spectrum disorder (ASD). Mixed effects logistic regression analyses revealed that groups differed in valuation of images related to restricted interests: control children were indifferent to cash payouts to view these images, but children with ASD were willing to receive less cash payout to view these images. Groups did not differ in valuation of social images or non-social images not related to restricted interests. Results highlight that motivational accounts of ASD should also consider the reward value of non-social stimuli related to restricted interests in ASD (Dichter and Adolphs, 2012). PMID:26257684

  6. Lévy walks

    E-print Network

    V. Zaburdaev; S. Denisov; J. Klafter

    2015-01-23

    Random walk is a fundamental concept with applications ranging from quantum physics to econometrics. Remarkably, one specific model of random walks appears to be ubiquitous across many fields as a tool to analyze transport phenomena in which the dispersal process is faster than dictated by Brownian diffusion. The L\\'{e}vy walk model combines two key features, the ability to generate anomalously fast diffusion and a finite velocity of a random walker. Recent results in optics, Hamiltonian chaos, cold atom dynamics, bio-physics, and behavioral science demonstrate that this particular type of random walks provides significant insight into complex transport phenomena. This review provides a self-consistent introduction to L\\'{e}vy walks, surveys their existing applications, including latest advances, and outlines further perspectives.

  7. Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

    2015-01-01

    The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

  8. Health effects of particulate air pollution.

    PubMed

    Dockery, Douglas W

    2009-04-01

    In the 1980's it was generally felt that particulate air pollution concentrations in the United States were not a hazard to the public health. However, in the early 1990's the application of econometric time-series studies and prospective cohort studies suggested increased mortality associated with acute (daily) and chronic (decades) exposures to particulate air pollution commonly observed in the developed world. The epidemiologic evidence was not supported by evidence of causal associations from other disciplines. Nevertheless, the EPA moved to tighten controls on fine particulate air pollution. The debate over the science was played out in public hearings and the courts. The experience provides lessons on the use of epidemiologic data in setting public policy. PMID:19344865

  9. Forecasting energy demand in the developing world

    SciTech Connect

    Dahl, C.A.; McDonald, L.

    1998-11-01

    The developing world with three-fourths of the world`s population consumes less than one-quarter of the world`s commercial energy. As these countries grow and develop they will consume a larger share of the world`s commercial energy. The goal of this article is to estimate the changes in the developing world`s energy consumption in the coming decades. The authors use all available econometric estimates of income and price elasticities and other historical trends for income, population, and price growth to forecast developing world energy consumption for the next thirty years. Although the authors find large uncertainties over the forecasts, most scenarios suggest that energy demand in the developing world will increase over 5.5% per year and that global energy consumption can be expected to more than triple in the coming three decades.

  10. Model of world energy markets and OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) pricing. World bank staff working paper

    SciTech Connect

    Choe, B.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model. The model accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil (a price seen as being chosen by OPEC mainly on the basis of its revenue implications) together with assumptions about GDP and population growth, and generates energy balance projections for seven world regions--three industrial country regions and four developing country groups. The demand side of the model consists of three end-use sectors (transportation, industrial and residential/commercial) and one energy transformation sector (thermal power generation). The model presently has an endogenous supply specification only for coal. The performance of the model in simulating the historical period of the 1970s was reasonably satisfactory.

  11. Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

    SciTech Connect

    Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

    2014-06-19

    The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependence is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.

  12. Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fry, John

    2014-01-01

    In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

  13. Climate change and soil salinity: The case of coastal Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Dasgupta, Susmita; Hossain, Md Moqbul; Huq, Mainul; Wheeler, David

    2015-12-01

    This paper estimates location-specific soil salinity in coastal Bangladesh for 2050. The analysis was conducted in two stages: First, changes in soil salinity for the period 2001-2009 were assessed using information recorded at 41 soil monitoring stations by the Soil Research Development Institute. Using these data, a spatial econometric model was estimated linking soil salinity with the salinity of nearby rivers, land elevation, temperature, and rainfall. Second, future soil salinity for 69 coastal sub-districts was projected from climate-induced changes in river salinity and projections of rainfall and temperature based on time trends for 20 Bangladesh Meteorological Department weather stations in the coastal region. The findings indicate that climate change poses a major soil salinization risk in coastal Bangladesh. Across 41 monitoring stations, the annual median projected change in soil salinity is 39 % by 2050. Above the median, 25 % of all stations have projected changes of 51 % or higher. PMID:26152508

  14. MODELING THE DEMAND FOR E85 IN THE UNITED STATES

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

    2013-10-01

    How demand for E85 might evolve in the future in response to changing economics and policies is an important subject to include in the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). This report summarizes a study to develop an E85 choice model for NEMS. Using the most recent data from the states of Minnesota, North Dakota, and Iowa, this study estimates a logit model that represents E85 choice as a function of prices of E10 and E85, as well as fuel availability of E85 relative to gasoline. Using more recent data than previous studies allows a better estimation of non-fleet demand and indicates that the price elasticity of E85 choice appears to be higher than previously estimated. Based on the results of the econometric analysis, a model for projecting E85 demand at the regional level is specified. In testing, the model produced plausible predictions of US E85 demand to 2040.

  15. Time to death and the forecasting of macro-level health care expenditures: some further considerations.

    PubMed

    van Baal, Pieter H; Wong, Albert

    2012-12-01

    Although the effect of time to death (TTD) on health care expenditures (HCE) has been investigated using individual level data, the most profound implications of TTD have been for the forecasting of macro-level HCE. Here we estimate the TTD model using macro-level data from the Netherlands consisting of mortality rates and age- and gender-specific per capita health expenditures for the years 1981-2007. Forecasts for the years 2008-2020 of this macro-level TTD model were compared to forecasts that excluded TTD. Results revealed that the effect of TTD on HCE in our macro model was similar to those found in micro-econometric studies. As the inclusion of TTD pushed growth rate estimates from unidentified causes upwards, however, the two models' forecasts of HCE for the 2008-2020 were similar. We argue that including TTD, if modeled correctly, does not lower forecasts of HCE. PMID:23000700

  16. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  17. Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

    SciTech Connect

    Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.; Kobos, Peter Holmes; McNamara, Laura A.

    2004-09-01

    This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a result of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.

  18. How to Estimate the Value of Service Reliability Improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, Michael J.; Mercurio, Matthew G.; Schellenberg, Josh A.; Eto, Joseph H.

    2010-06-08

    A robust methodology for estimating the value of service reliability improvements is presented. Although econometric models for estimating value of service (interruption costs) have been established and widely accepted, analysts often resort to applying relatively crude interruption cost estimation techniques in assessing the economic impacts of transmission and distribution investments. This paper first shows how the use of these techniques can substantially impact the estimated value of service improvements. A simple yet robust methodology that does not rely heavily on simplifying assumptions is presented. When a smart grid investment is proposed, reliability improvement is one of the most frequently cited benefits. Using the best methodology for estimating the value of this benefit is imperative. By providing directions on how to implement this methodology, this paper sends a practical, usable message to the industry.

  19. Are stock market returns related to the weather effects? Empirical evidence from Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Tsangyao; Nieh, Chien-Chung; Yang, Ming Jing; Yang, Tse-Yu

    2006-05-01

    In this study, we employ a recently developed econometric technique of the threshold model with the GJR-GARCH process on error terms to investigate the relationships between weather factors and stock market returns in Taiwan using daily data for the period of 1 July 1997-22 October 2003. The major weather factors studied include temperature, humidity, and cloud cover. Our empirical evidence shows that temperature and cloud cover are two important weather factors that affect the stock returns in Taiwan. Our empirical findings further support the previous arguments that advocate the inclusion of economically neutral behavioral variables in asset pricing models. These results also have significant implications for individual investors and financial institutions planning to invest in the Taiwan stock market.

  20. Electricity generation modeling and photovoltaic forecasts in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Shengnan

    With the economic development of China, the demand for electricity generation is rapidly increasing. To explain electricity generation, we use gross GDP, the ratio of urban population to rural population, the average per capita income of urban residents, the electricity price for industry in Beijing, and the policy shift that took place in China. Ordinary least squares (OLS) is used to develop a model for the 1979--2009 period. During the process of designing the model, econometric methods are used to test and develop the model. The final model is used to forecast total electricity generation and assess the possible role of photovoltaic generation. Due to the high demand for resources and serious environmental problems, China is pushing to develop the photovoltaic industry. The system price of PV is falling; therefore, photovoltaics may be competitive in the future.

  1. Impacts of Weather Shocks on Murder and Drug Cartel Violence in Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miguel, E.; Hsiang, S. M.; Burke, M.; Gonzalez, F.; Baysan, C.

    2014-12-01

    We estimate impacts of weather shocks on several dimensions of violence in Mexico during 1990-2010, using disaggregated data at the state-by-month level. Controlling for location and time fixed effects, we show that higher than normal temperatures lead to: (i) higher total murder rates, (ii) higher rates of drug cartel related murders, and (iii) higher suicide rates. The effects of high temperatures on inter-personal violence (murders) and on inter-group violence (drug cartel related murders) are large, statistically significant and similar to those found in other recent settings. The use of panel data econometric methods to examine the effect of weather on suicide incidence is novel. We assess the role of economic channels (i.e., agricultural production affected by weather) and conclude that they cannot account for most of the estimated impacts, suggesting that other mechanisms, including psychological explanations, are likely to be important in this setting.

  2. Integrating agricultural and forestry GHG mitigation responses into general economy frameworks: Developing a family of response functions

    SciTech Connect

    Gillig, Dhazn; McCarl, Bruce A.; Sands, Ronald D.

    2004-07-01

    An econometrically estimated family of response functions is developed for characterizing potential responses to greenhouse gas mitigation policies by the agriculture and forestry sectors. The response functions are estimated based on results of an agricultural/forestry sector model. They provide estimates of sequestration and emission reductions in forestry and agriculture along with levels of sectoral production, prices, welfare, and environmental attributes given a carbon price, levels of demand for agricultural goods, and the energy price. Six alternative mitigation policies representing types of greenhouse gas offsets allowed are considered. Results indicate that the largest quantity of greenhouse gas offset consistently appears with the mitigation policy that pays for all opportunities. Restricting carbon payments (emission tax or sequestration subsidy) only to aff/deforestation or only to agricultural sequestration substantially reduces potential mitigation. Higher carbon prices lead to more sequestration, less emissions, reduced consumer and total welfare, improved environmental indicators and increased producer welfare.

  3. Economic development, urbanization, technological change and overweight: What do we learn from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys?

    PubMed Central

    Goryakin, Yevgeniy; Suhrcke, Marc

    2014-01-01

    Obesity and overweight are spreading fast in developing countries, and have reached world record levels in some of them. Capturing the size, patterns and trends of the problem has, however, been severely hampered by the lack of comparable data in low and middle income countries. We seek to begin to fill this gap by testing several hypotheses on the determinants/correlates of overweight among women, related to the influence of economic and technological development. We undertake econometric analysis of nationally representative data on about 878,000 women aged 15–49 from 244 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) for 56 countries over the years 1991–2009. Our findings support most previously expressed hypotheses of what might explain obesity patterns in developing countries, but they also reject some prior notions and add considerable nuance to the emerging pattern. PMID:24457038

  4. Cross-impacts analysis development and energy policy analysis applications

    SciTech Connect

    Roop, J.M.; Scheer, R.M.; Stacey, G.S.

    1986-12-01

    Purpose of this report is to describe the cross-impact analysis process and microcomputer software developed for the Office of Policy, Planning, and Analysis (PPA) of DOE. First introduced in 1968, cross-impact analysis is a technique that produces scenarios of future conditions and possibilities. Cross-impact analysis has several unique attributes that make it a tool worth examining, especially in the current climate when the outlook for the economy and several of the key energy markets is uncertain. Cross-impact analysis complements the econometric, engineering, systems dynamics, or trend approaches already in use at DOE. Cross-impact analysis produces self-consistent scenarios in the broadest sense and can include interaction between the economy, technology, society and the environment. Energy policy analyses that couple broad scenarios of the future with detailed forecasting can produce more powerful results than scenario analysis or forecasts can produce alone.

  5. Measurement of density correlations in pseudorapidity via charged particle multiplicity fluctuations in Au plus Au collisions at root s(NN) =200 GeV 

    E-print Network

    Adler, S. S.; Afanasiev, S.; Aidala, C.; Ajitanand, N. N.; Akiba, Y.; Alexander, J.; Amirikas, R.; Aphecetche, L.; Aronson, S. H.; Averbeck, R.; Awes, T. C.; Azmoun, R.; Babintsev, V.; Baldisseri, A.; Barish, K. N.; Barnes, P. D.; Bassalleck, B.; Bathe, S.; Batsouli, S.; Baublis, V.; Bazilevsky, A.; Belikov, S.; Berdnikov, Y.; Bhagavatula, S.; Boissevain, J. G.; Borel, H.; Borenstein, S.; Brooks, M. L.; Brown, D. S.; Bruner, N.; Bucher, D.; Buesching, H.; Bumazhnov, V.; Bunce, G.; Burward-Hoy, J. M.; Butsyk, S.; Camard, X.; Chai, J. -S; Chand, P.; Chang, W. C.; Chernichenko, S.; Chi, C. Y.; Chiba, J.; Chiu, M.; Choi, I. J.; Choi, J.; Choudhury, R. K.; Chujo, T.; Cianciolo, V.; Cobigo, Y.; Cole, B. A.; Constantin, P.; d'Enterria, D.; David, G.; Delagrange, H.; Denisov, A.; Deshpande, A.; Desmond, E. J.; Devismes, A.; Dietzsch, O.; Drapier, O.; Drees, A.; Drees, K. A.; Durum, A.; Dutta, D.; Efremenko, Y. V.; El Chenawi, K.; Enokizono, A.; En'yo, H.; Esumi, S.; Ewell, L.; Fields, D. E.; Fleuret, F.; Fokin, S. L.; Fox, B. D.; Fraenkel, Z.; Frantz, J. E.; Franz, A.; Frawley, A. D.; Fung, S. -Y; Garpman, S.; Ghosh, T. K.; Glenn, A.; Gogiberidze, G.; Gonin, M.; Gosset, J.; Goto, Y.; de Cassagnac, R. Granier; Grau, N.; Greene, S. V.; Perdekamp, M. Grosse; Guryn, W.; Gustafsson, H. -A; Hachiya, T.; Haggerty, J. S.; Hamagaki, H.; Hansen, A. G.; Hartouni, E. P.; Harvey, M.; Hayano, R.; Hayashi, N.; He, X.; van Hecke, H. W.; Heffner, M.; Hemmick, T. K.; Heuser, J. M.; Hibino, M.; Hill, J. C.; Holzmann, W.; Homma, K.; Hong, B.; Hoover, A.; Ichihara, T.; Ikonnikov, V. V.; Imai, K.; Isenhower, D.; Ishihara, M.; Issah, M.; Isupov, A.; Jacak, B. V.; Jang, W. Y.; Jeong, Y.; Jia, J.; Jinnouchi, O.; Johnson, B. M.; Johnson, S. C.; Joo, K. S.; Jouan, D.; Kametani, S.; Kamihara, N.; Kang, J. H.; Kapoor, S. S.; Katou, K.; Kelly, S.; Khachaturov, B.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kikuchi, J.; Kim, D. H.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, E.; Kim, G. -B; Kim, H. J.; Kistenev, E.; Kiyomichi, A.; Kiyoyama, K.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Kobayashi, H.; Kochenda, L.; Kochetkov, V.; Koehler, D.; Kohama, T.; Kopytine, M.; Kotchetkov, D.; Kozlov, A.; Kroon, P. J.; Kuberg, C. H.; Kurita, K.; Kuroki, Y.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; Kyle, G. S.; Lacey, R.; Ladygin, V.; Lajoie, J. G.; Lebedev, A.; Leckey, S.; Lee, D. M.; Lee, S.; Leitch, M. J.; Li, X. H.; Lim, H.; Litvinenko, A.; Liu, M. X.; Liu, Y.; Maguire, C. F.; Makdisi, Y. I.; Malakhov, A.; Manko, V. I.; Mao, Y.; Martinez, G.; Marx, M. D.; Masui, H.; Matathias, F.; Matsumoto, T.; McGaughey, P. L.; Melnikov, E.; Messer, F.; Miake, Y.; Milan, J.; Miller, T. E.; Milov, A.; Mioduszewski, Saskia; Mischke, R. E.; Mishra, G. C.; Mitchell, J. T.; Mohanty, A. K.; Morrison, D. P.; Moss, J. M.; Muhlbacher, F.; Mukhopadhyay, D.; Muniruzzaman, M.; Murata, J.; Nagamiya, S.; Nagle, J. L.; Nakamura, T.; Nandi, B. K.; Nara, M.; Newby, J.; Nilsson, P.; Nyanin, A. S.; Nystrand, J.; O'Brien, E.; Ogilvie, C. A.; Ohnishi, H.; Ojha, I. D.; Okada, K.; Ono, M.; Onuchin, V.; Oskarsson, A.; Otterlund, I.; Oyama, K.; Ozawa, K.; Pal, D.; Palounek, A. P. T.; Pantuev, V.; Papavassiliou, V.; Park, J.; Parmar, A.; Pate, S. F.; Peitzmann, T.; Peng, J. -C; Peresedov, V.; Pinkenburg, C.; Pisani, R. P.; Plasil, F.; Purschke, M. L.; Purwar, A. K.; Rak, J.; Ravinovich, I.; Read, K. F.; Reuter, M.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Riabov, Y.; du Rietz, R.; Roche, G.; Romana, A.; Rosati, M.; Rosnet, P.; Ryu, S. S.; Sadler, M. E.; Saito, N.; Sakaguchi, T.; Sakai, M.; Sakai, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sanfratello, L.; Santo, R.; Sato, H. D.; Sato, S.; Sawada, S.; Schutz, Y.; Semenov, V.; Seto, R.; Shaw, M. R.; Shea, T. K.; Shibata, T. -A; Shigaki, K.; Shiina, T.; Silva, C. L.; Silvermyr, D.; Sim, K. S.; Singh, C. P.; Singh, V.; Sivertz, M.; Soldatov, A.; Soltz, R. A.; Sondheim, W. E.; Sorensen, S. P.; Sourikova, I. V.; Staley, F.; Stankus, P. W.; Stenlund, E.; Stepanov, M.; Ster, A.; Stoll, S. P.; Sugitate, T.; Sullivan, J. P.; Takagui, E. M.; Taketani, A.; Tamai, M.; Tanaka, K. H.; Tanaka, Y.; Tanida, K.; Tannenbaum, M. J.; Tarjan, P.; Tepe, J. D.; Thomas, T. L.; Toia, A.; Tojo, J.; Torii, H.; Towell, R. S.; Tserruya, I.; Tsuruoka, H.; Tuli, S. K.; Tydesjo, H.; Tyurin, N.; Velkovska, J.; Velkovsky, M.; Veszpremi, V.; Villatte, L.; Vinogradov, A. A.; Volkov, M. A.; Vznuzdaev, E.; Wang, X. R.; Watanabe, Y.; White, S. N.; Wohn, F. K.; Woody, C. L.; Xie, W.; Yang, Y.; Yanovich, A.; Yokkaichi, S.; Young, G. R.; Yushmanov, I. E.; Zajc, W. A.; Zhang, C.; Zhou, S.; Zhou, J.; Zolin, L.; PHENIX Collaboration.

    2007-01-01

    of Econometric Models With Categorical Variables. (August 2005) Desheng Ouyang, B.S., Huazhong University of Science and Technology; M.S., Huazhong University of Science and Technology Chair of Advisory Committee: Dr. Qi Li In this dissertation I investigate... generating processes (DGP): DGP1 : Yi = Xi1 + Xi2 + Xi3 + Xi1Xi2 + Xi1Xi3 + Xi2Xi3 + epsilon1i, DGP2 : Yi = Xi2 + Xi3 + Xi2Xi3 + epsilon1i, where X1,X2,X3 element {0,1}, Pr[Xj = 1] = 0.5,j = 1,2,3, epsilon1 similar N(0,1). Note that, in both DGP?s, we have...

  6. Perspectives on resource-policy modeling: energy and minerals

    SciTech Connect

    Amit, R.; Avriel, M.

    1982-01-01

    Thirteen essays and a panel discussion on resource-policy modeling demonstrate the degree to which economic modeling is being applied to energy decision making. Based on the International Seminar on Resource Policy Modeling held in Herzlia, Israel, in December 1980, the essays include: (1) a description and analysis of energy-economy interactions, process analysis, econometric estimation, and input-output techniques, with examples from the US, Canada, and Israel; (2) demand estimation, pricing policies, and investment planning of the electricity sector; (3) a description and applications of mineral-supply models covering mineral-supply functions, resource depletion, cost of minerals, and problems concerning government regulations of the US coal industry; and (4) an overview of the energy-related decision-making process, including a discussion of the role of models and modelers in policy formulation. 212 references, 90 figures, 11 tables.

  7. Methodology for Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. This paper proposes a Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) that provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings.

  8. Synopsis of Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission Value

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with the goal of improved enterprise and business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative work styles, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper summarizes the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural underpinnings.

  9. 'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

    2015-12-01

    This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. PMID:26344780

  10. A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

    2006-04-01

    The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

  11. Lévy walks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaburdaev, V.; Denisov, S.; Klafter, J.

    2015-04-01

    Random walk is a fundamental concept with applications ranging from quantum physics to econometrics. Remarkably, one specific model of random walks appears to be ubiquitous across many fields as a tool to analyze transport phenomena in which the dispersal process is faster than dictated by Brownian diffusion. The Lévy-walk model combines two key features, the ability to generate anomalously fast diffusion and a finite velocity of a random walker. Recent results in optics, Hamiltonian chaos, cold atom dynamics, biophysics, and behavioral science demonstrate that this particular type of random walk provides significant insight into complex transport phenomena. This review gives a self-consistent introduction to Lévy walks, surveys their existing applications, including latest advances, and outlines further perspectives.

  12. Effect of farm management practices in the Bt toxin production by Bt cotton: evidence from farm fields in China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Jikun; Mi, Jianwei; Chen, Ruijian; Su, Honghua; Wu, Kongming; Qiao, Fangbin; Hu, Ruifa

    2014-06-01

    Based on farm field plot level survey data and laboratory test, we examine the determinants of the expression of Bt toxin in China's Bt cotton production. The results show that the expression of Bt toxin differs significantly among varieties. Even for the same variety the expression of Bt toxin also varies substantially among villages and among farmers in the same village. Econometric analyses show that after controlling for the effects of varieties and locations (or villages), farm management, particular applications of phosphate and potash fertilizers, and manure, has significant positive effects on Bt toxin expression in farmer's fields. In contrast to previous studies which showed that nitrogen fertilizer has a positive impact on expression of Bt toxin, this study shows that nitrogen fertilizer has no significant impact on expression of Bt toxin in farmer's fields. On the other hand, the expression of Bt toxin has a positive relationship with phosphate fertilizer, potash fertilizer and manure application. PMID:24445856

  13. Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

    2015-09-01

    This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. PMID:26081307

  14. Risky Business and the American Climate Prospectus: Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gordon, K.; Houser, T.; Kopp, R. E., III; Hsiang, S. M.; Larsen, K.; Jina, A.; Delgado, M.; Muir-Wood, R.; Rasmussen, D.; Rising, J.; Mastrandrea, M.; Wilson, P. S.

    2014-12-01

    The United States faces a range of economic risks from global climate change - from increased flooding and storm damage, to climate-driven changes in crop yields and labor productivity, to heat-related strains on energy and public health systems. The Risky Business Project commissioned a groundbreaking new analysis of these and other climate risks by region of the country and sector of the economy. The American Climate Prospectus (ACP) links state-of-the-art climate models with econometric research of human responses to climate variability and cutting edge private sector risk assessment tools, the ACP offers decision-makers a data driven assessment of the specific risks they face. We describe the challenge, methods, findings, and policy implications of the national risk analysis, with particular focus on methodological innovations and novel insights.

  15. An empirical analysis of cigarette demand in Argentina

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Eugenio; Mejia, Raul; Pérez-Stable, Eliseo J

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the long-term and short-term effects on cigarette demand in Argentina based on changes in cigarette price and income per person >14 years old. Method Public data from the Ministry of Economics and Production were analysed based on monthly time series data between 1994 and 2010. The econometric analysis used cigarette consumption per person >14 years of age as the dependent variable and the real income per person >14 years old and the real average price of cigarettes as independent variables. Empirical analyses were done to verify the order of integration of the variables, to test for cointegration to capture the long-term effects and to capture the short-term dynamics of the variables. Results The demand for cigarettes in Argentina was affected by changes in real income and the real average price of cigarettes. The long-term income elasticity was equal to 0.43, while the own-price elasticity was equal to ?0.31, indicating a 10% increase in the growth of real income led to an increase in cigarette consumption of 4.3% and a 10% increase in the price produced a fall of 3.1% in cigarette consumption. The vector error correction model estimated that the short-term income elasticity was 0.25 and the short-term own-price elasticity of cigarette demand was ?0.15. A simulation exercise showed that increasing the price of cigarettes by 110% would maximise revenues and result in a potentially large decrease in total cigarette consumption. Conclusion Econometric analyses of cigarette consumption and their relationship with cigarette price and income can provide valuable information for developing cigarette price policy. PMID:23760657

  16. Motor Fuel Consumption model. Twelfth periodical report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1985-11-01

    This document is the twelfth of a series of periodic reports on the Motor Fuel Consumption (MFC) model developed for the Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Policy Integration, Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis. The MFC model is used by DOE to evaluate the impact of conservation policies on fuel consumption and on the disaggregate components of fuel demand. These components include passenger cars, light-duty trucks, and heavy-duty vehicles. The model is not a forecasting tool in that it does not provide detailed econometrically-based projections of fuel demand. The model is, however, calibrated to current statistics on fuel consumption. fleet size, and travel growth, and to econometric forecasts of new vehicle sales provided by DOE. During the past year (November 1984 to October 1985), the MFC model has been used to evaluate the consumption impacts of a reduction in Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for model year (MY) 1986 passenger cars. To facilitate analyses of the potential development and expansion of a market for alcohol fuels in transportation, the model has been reconfigured to include neat methanol, ethanol/gasoline blend, and methanol/gasoline blend components. In addition, as part of an overall effort by the sponsor to transfer DOE analytical models onto micro-computers, a version of the MFC model was developed for operation on an IBM Personal Computer (PC/XT). The purpose of this report is to provide the reader with the most current output of the Motor Fuel Consumption Model and to discuss revisions in the model structure, input data and assumptions which have occurred in the past year. 46 refs., 3 figs., 26 tabs.

  17. The federal photovoltaics commercialization program

    SciTech Connect

    Pegram, W.M.

    1989-01-01

    This dissertation presents a political and economic history of the federal government's program to commercialize photovoltaic energy. Chapter 1 is a detailed history of the program. Chapter 2 is a brief review of the Congressional roll call voting literature. Chapter 3 develops PV benefit measures at the state and Congressional district level necessary for an econometric analysis of PV roll call voting. The econometric analysis is presented in Chapter 4. Because PV power was more expensive than conventional power, the research and development program was designed to eventually make PV a significant power source. The decentralized R D program pursued alternative approaches in parallel, with subsequent funding dependent on earlier programs. Funding rose rapidly in the 1970s before shrinking in the 1980s. Tax credits were introduced in 1978, with the last of the credits due to expire this year. Major issues in the program have been the appropriate magnitude of demonstrations and government procurement, whether decentralized, residential use or centralized utility generation would first be economic, the role of storage in PV, and the role of PV in a utility's generation mix. Roll call voting on solar energy (all votes analyzed occur from 1975- 1980) was influenced in a cross-sectional sense by all the influence predicted: party and ideology, local economic benefits of the technology, local PV federal spending and manufacturing, and appropriations committee membership. The cross-sectional results for ideology are consistent with the strongly ideological character of solar energy politics and the timing of funding increases and decreases discussed in Chapter 1. Local PV spending and manufacturing was is significant than ideology or the economic benefits of the technology. Because time series analysis of the votes was not possible, it is not possible to test the role of economic benefits to the nation as a whole.

  18. Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

    2012-04-01

    The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin

  19. Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Harder, B.J.

    1995-03-01

    Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be made to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.

  20. Analyzing the Impact of Residential Building Attributes, Demographic and Behavioral Factors on Natural Gas Usage

    SciTech Connect

    Livingston, Olga V.; Cort, Katherine A.

    2011-03-03

    This analysis examines the relationship between energy demand and residential building attributes, demographic characteristics, and behavioral variables using the U.S. Department of Energy’s Residential Energy Consumption Survey 2005 microdata. This study investigates the applicability of the smooth backfitting estimator to statistical analysis of residential energy consumption via nonparametric regression. The methodology utilized in the study extends nonparametric additive regression via local linear smooth backfitting to categorical variables. The conventional methods used for analyzing residential energy consumption are econometric modeling and engineering simulations. This study suggests an econometric approach that can be utilized in combination with simulation results. A common weakness of previously used econometric models is a very high likelihood that any suggested parametric relationships will be misspecified. Nonparametric modeling does not have this drawback. Its flexibility allows for uncovering more complex relationships between energy use and the explanatory variables than can possibly be achieved by parametric models. Traditionally, building simulation models overestimated the effects of energy efficiency measures when compared to actual "as-built" observed savings. While focusing on technical efficiency, they do not account for behavioral or market effects. The magnitude of behavioral or market effects may have a substantial influence on the final energy savings resulting from implementation of various energy conservation measures and programs. Moreover, variability in behavioral aspects and user characteristics appears to have a significant impact on total energy consumption. Inaccurate estimates of energy consumption and potential savings also impact investment decisions. The existing modeling literature, whether it relies on parametric specifications or engineering simulation, does not accommodate inclusion of a behavioral component. This study attempts to bridge that gap by analyzing behavioral data and investigate the applicability of additive nonparametric regression to this task. This study evaluates the impact of 31 regressors on residential natural gas usage. The regressors include weather, economic variables, demographic and behavioral characteristics, and building attributes related to energy use. In general, most of the regression results were in line with previous engineering and economic studies in this area. There were, however, some counterintuitive results, particularly with regard to thermostat controls and behaviors. There are a number of possible reasons for these counterintuitive results including the inability to control for regional climate variability due to the data sanitization (to prevent identification of respondents), inaccurate data caused by to self-reporting, and the fact that not all relevant behavioral variables were included in the data set, so we were not able to control for them in the study. The results of this analysis could be used as an in-sample prediction for approximating energy demand of a residential building whose characteristics are described by the regressors in this analysis, but a certain combination of their particular values does not exist in the real world. In addition, this study has potential applications for benefit-cost analysis of residential upgrades and retrofits under a fixed budget, because the results of this study contain information on how natural gas consumption might change once a particular characteristic or attribute is altered. Finally, the results of this study can help establish a relationship between natural gas consumption and changes in behavior of occupants.

  1. Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

    2015-04-01

    Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological, phenological, geological, agronomic, and socio-economic variables are also considered to extend the model in order to reveal the proper causal relation. First results show that dry as well as wet extremes of SMI have a negative impact on crop yield for winter wheat. This indicates that soil moisture has at least a limiting affect on crop production.

  2. Economic Impacts of Wind Turbine Development in U.S. Counties

    SciTech Connect

    J., Brown; B., Hoen; E., Lantz; J., Pender; R., Wiser

    2011-07-25

    The objective is to address the research question using post-project construction, county-level data, and econometric evaluation methods. Wind energy is expanding rapidly in the United States: Over the last 4 years, wind power has contributed approximately 35 percent of all new electric power capacity. Wind power plants are often developed in rural areas where local economic development impacts from the installation are projected, including land lease and property tax payments and employment growth during plant construction and operation. Wind energy represented 2.3 percent of the U.S. electricity supply in 2010, but studies show that penetrations of at least 20 percent are feasible. Several studies have used input-output models to predict direct, indirect, and induced economic development impacts. These analyses have often been completed prior to project construction. Available studies have not yet investigated the economic development impacts of wind development at the county level using post-construction econometric evaluation methods. Analysis of county-level impacts is limited. However, previous county-level analyses have estimated operation-period employment at 0.2 to 0.6 jobs per megawatt (MW) of power installed and earnings at $9,000/MW to $50,000/MW. We find statistically significant evidence of positive impacts of wind development on county-level per capita income from the OLS and spatial lag models when they are applied to the full set of wind and non-wind counties. The total impact on annual per capita income of wind turbine development (measured in MW per capita) in the spatial lag model was $21,604 per MW. This estimate is within the range of values estimated in the literature using input-output models. OLS results for the wind-only counties and matched samples are similar in magnitude, but are not statistically significant at the 10-percent level. We find a statistically significant impact of wind development on employment in the OLS analysis for wind counties only, but not in the other models. Our estimates of employment impacts are not precise enough to assess the validity of employment impacts from input-output models applied in advance of wind energy project construction. The analysis provides empirical evidence of positive income effects at the county level from cumulative wind turbine development, consistent with the range of impacts estimated using input-output models. Employment impacts are less clear.

  3. Calendar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2004-06-01

    JULY 2004 2nd World Congress of the Game Theory Society, Faculty of Luminy, Marseille, France 5-9 July 2004 Europa Organisation (europa@europa-organisation.com), +33 5 34 45 26 45, www.gts2004.org Budapest Workshop on Behavioral Economics, Central European University, Budapest, Hungary 5-10 July 2004 Eva Dotzi (behavecon@ceu.hu), www.iza.org/en/calls_conferences/CallCEU_04.pdf FDA'04. 1st IFAC Workshop on Fractional Differentiation and its Applications, Bordeaux, France 19-20 July 2004 IFAC secretariat (fda04@lap.u-bordeaux1.fr), www.lap.u-bordeaux.fr/fda04/ Bachelier Finance Society Third World Congress, InterContinental Hotel, Chicago, IL, USA 21-24 July 2004 bfs2004@uic.edu, www.uic.edu/orgs/bachelier/ BS/IMS 2004. 6th World Congress of the Bernoulli Society for Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Barcelona, Spain 26-31 July 2004 wc2004@pacifico-meetings.com, +34 93 402 13 85, www.imub.ub.es/events/wc2004 AUGUST 2004 Summer School in Econometrics. The Cointegrated VAR Model: Econometric Methodology and Macroeconomic Applications, Institute of Economics, University of Copenhagen, Denmark 2-22 August 2004 Summerschool@econ.ku.dk, www.econ.ku.dk/summerschool SEPTEMBER 2004 First Bonzenfreies Colloquium on Market Dynamics and Quantitative Economics, Alessandria, Palazzo Borsalino, Italy 9-10 September 2004 colloquium@unipmn.it, www.mfn.unipmn.it/~colloqui/ Risk Analysis 2004. 4th International Conference on Computer Simulation in Risk Analysis and Hazard Mitigation, Aldemar Paradise Royal Mare Hotel, Rhodes, Greece 27-29 September 2004 enquiries@wessex.ac.uk, +44 (0)238 029 3223, www.wessex.ac.uk/conferences/2004/risk04/ OCTOBER 2004 IRC Hedge 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 10, 11 October 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=10 NOVEMBER 2004 IRC DICE 2004, InterContinental Hotel, London, UK 22, 23 November 2004 enquiries@irc-conferences.com, www.irc-conferences.com/show_conference.php?id=13 DECEMBER 2004 Quantitative Methods in Finance 2004, Sydney, Australia 15-18 December 2004 Andrea Schnaufer (qmf@uts.edu.au), +61 2 9514 7737, www.business.uts.edu.au/finance/resources/qmf2004/ JANUARY 2005 Developments in Quantitative Finance, Isaac Newton Institute for Mathematical Sciences, Cambridge, UK 24 January-22 July 2005 www.newton.cam.ac.uk/programmes/DQF/index.html

  4. Essays on measurement and evaluation of demand side management programs in the electricity industry, and impacts of firm strategy on stock price in the biotechnology industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bandres Motola, Miguel A.

    Essay one estimates changes in small business customer energy consumption (kWh) patterns resulting from a seasonally differentiated pricing structure. Econometric analysis leverages cross-sectional time series data across the entire population of affected customers, from 2007 through the present. Observations include: monthly energy usage (kWh), relevant customer segmentations, local daily temperature, energy price, and region-specific economic conditions, among other variables. The study identifies the determinants of responsiveness to seasonal price differentiation. In addition, estimated energy consumption changes occurring during the 2010 summer season are reported for the average customer and in aggregate grouped by relevant customer segments, climate zone, and total customer base. Essay two develops an econometric modeling methodology to evaluate load impacts for short duration demand response events. The study analyzes time series data from a season of direct load control program tests aimed at integrating demand response into the wholesale electricity market. I have combined "fuzzy logic" with binary variables to create "fuzzy indicator variables" that allow for measurement of short duration events while using industry standard model specifications. Typically, binary variables for every hour are applied in load impact analysis of programs dispatched in hourly intervals. As programs evolve towards integration with the wholesale market, event durations become irregular and often occur for periods of only a few minutes. This methodology is innovative in that it conserves the degrees of freedom in the model while allowing for analysis of high frequency data using fixed effects. Essay three examines the effects of strategies, intangibles, and FDA news on the stocks of young biopharmaceutical firms. An event study methodology is used to explore those effects. This study investigates 20,839 announcements from 1990 to 2005. Announcements on drug development, alliances, publications, presentations, and FDA approval have a positive effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms. Announcements on goals not met, FDA drug approval denied, and changes in structural organizations have a negative effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms.

  5. Land-use change, deforestation, and peasant farm systems: A case study of Mexico's Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vance, Colin James

    This dissertation develops spatially explicit econometric models by linking Thematic Mapper (TM) satellite imagery with household survey data to test behavioral propositions of semi-subsistence farmers in the Southern Yucatan Peninsular Region (SYPR) of Mexico. Covering 22,000 km2, this agricultural frontier contains one of the largest and oldest expanses of tropical forests in the Americas outside of Amazonia. Over the past 30 years, the SYPR has undergone significant land-use change largely owing to the construction of a highway through the region's center in 1967. These landscape dynamics are modeled by exploiting a spatial database linking a time series of TM imagery with socio-economic and geo-referenced land-use data collected from a random sample of 188 farm households. The dissertation moves beyond the existing literature on deforestation in three principal respects. Theoretically, the study develops a non-separable model of land-use that relaxes the assumption of profit maximization almost exclusively invoked in studies of the deforestation issue. The model is derived from a utility-maximizing framework that explicitly incorporates the interdependency of the household's production and consumption choices as these affect the allocation of resources. Methodologically, the study assembles a spatial database that couples satellite imagery with household-level socio-economic data. The field survey protocol recorded geo-referenced land-use data through the use of a geographic positioning system and the creation of sketch maps detailing the location of different uses observed within individual plots. Empirically, the study estimates spatially explicit econometric models of land-use change using switching regressions and duration analysis. A distinguishing feature of these models is that they link the dependent and independent variables at the level of the decision unit, the land manager, thereby capturing spatial and temporal heterogeneity that is otherwise obscured in studies using data aggregated to higher scales of analysis. The empirical findings suggest the potential of various policy initiatives to impede or otherwise alter the pattern of land-cover conversions. In this regard, the study reveals that consideration of missing or thin markets is critical to understanding how farmers in the SYPR reach subsistence and commercial cropping decisions.

  6. Generality in nanotechnologies and its relationship to economic performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomez Baquero, Fernando

    In the history if economic analysis there is perhaps no more important question than the one of how economic development is achieved. For more than a century, economists have explored the role of technology in economic growth but there is still much to be learned about the effect that technologies, in particular emerging ones, have on economic growth and productivity. The objective of this research is to understand the relationship between nanotechnologies and economic growth and productivity, using the theory of General Purpose Technology (GPT)-driven economic growth. To do so, the Generality Index (calculated from patent data) was used to understand the relative pervasiveness of nanotechnologies. The analysis of trends and patterns of Generality Index, using the largest group of patents since the publication of the NBER Patent Database, indicates that nanotechnologies possess a higher average Generality than other technological groups. Next, the relationship between the Generality Index and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was studied using econometric analysis. Model estimates indicate that the variation in Generality for the group of nanotechnologies can explain a large proportion of the variation in TFP. However, the explanatory power of the entire set of patents (not just nanotechnologies) is larger and corresponds better to the expected theoretical models. Additionally, there is a negative short-run relationship between Generality and TFP, conflicting with part of the theoretical GPT-models. Finally, the relationship between the Generality of nanotechnologies and policy-driven investment events, such as R&D investments and grant awards, was studied using econometric methods. The statistical evidence suggests that NSF awards are related to technologies with higher Generality, while NIH awards and NNI investments are related to a lower average Generality. Overall, results of this research work indicate that the introduction of pervasive technologies into an economic system sets in motion an interesting series of events that can both increase and decrease productivity and therefore economic growth. The metrics and methods developed in this work emphasize the importance of developing and using new metrics for strategic decision making, both in the private sector and in the public sector.

  7. The economic potential of carbon sequestration in Californian agricultural land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catala-Luque, Rosa

    This dissertation studies the potential success of a carbon sequestration policy based on payments to farmers for adoption of alternative, less intensive, management practices in California. Since this is a first approach from a Californian perspective, we focus on Yolo County, an important agricultural county of the State. We focus on the six more important crops of the region: wheat, tomato, corn, rice, safflower, and sunflower. In Chapter 1, we characterize the role of carbon sequestration in Climate Change policy. We also give evidence on which alternative management practices have greenhouse gas mitigation potential (reduced tillage, cover-cropping, and organic systems) based on a study of experimental sites. Chapter 2 advances recognizing the need for information at the field level, and describes the survey designed used to obtain data at the field level, something required to perform a complete integrated assessment of the issue. The survey design is complex in the sense that we use auxiliary information to obtain a control (subpopulation of conventional farmers)-case (subpopulation of innovative farmers) design with stratification for land use. We present estimates for population quantities of interest such as total variable costs, profits, managerial experience in different alternatives, etc. This information efficiently gives field level information for innovative farmers, a missing piece of information so far, since our sampling strategy required the inclusion with probability one of farmers identified as innovative. Using an agronomic process model (DayCent) for the sample and population units, we construct carbon mitigation cost curves for each crop and management observed. Chapter 3 builds different econometric models for cross-sectional data taking into account the survey design, and expanding the sample size constructing productivity potential under each alternative. Based on the yield productivity potential modeled for each unit, we conclude that a carbon sequestration program based in payments for management adoption is going to favor the probability of adoption of mitigating alternatives. Finally, in Chapter 4, we interpret the yield productivity potential, as a state variable, summarizing the complex system of environmental and land-use history of each field, and propose fully dynamic econometric models to structurally assess carbon sequestration policies.

  8. Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wolff, Hendrik

    2007-12-01

    This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality theory. Both results would not necessarily be achieved using standard econometric methods. The final chapter "Daylight Time and Energy" uses a quasi-experiment to evaluate a popular energy conservation policy: we challenge the conventional wisdom that extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces energy demand. Using detailed panel data on half-hourly electricity consumption, prices, and weather conditions from four Australian states we employ a novel 'triple-difference' technique to test the electricity-saving hypothesis. We show that the extension failed to reduce electricity demand and instead increased electricity prices. We also apply the most sophisticated electricity simulation model available in the literature to the Australian data. We find that prior simulation models significantly overstate electricity savings. Our results suggest that extending DST will fail as an instrument to save energy resources.

  9. Addressing the Need for Independence in the CSE Model

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Ferragut, Erik M; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Information system security risk, defined as the product of the monetary losses associated with security incidents and the probability that they occur, is a suitable decision criterion when considering different information system architectures. Risk assessment is the widely accepted process used to understand, quantify, and document the effects of undesirable events on organizational objectives so that risk management, continuity of operations planning, and contingency planning can be performed. One technique, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES), is a methodology for estimating security costs to stakeholders as a function of possible risk postures. In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain, as a result of security breakdowns. Additional work has applied CSES to specific business cases. The current state-of-the-art of CSES addresses independent events. In typical usage, analysts create matrices that capture their expert opinion, and then use those matrices to quantify costs to stakeholders. This expansion generalizes CSES to the common real-world case where events may be dependent.

  10. Financing the response to AIDS: some fiscal and macroeconomic considerations.

    PubMed

    Haacker, Markus

    2008-07-01

    This article examines the international response to AIDS from a fiscal perspective: first the financing of the international response to AIDS, especially the role of external financing, and second, a more comprehensive perspective on the costs of the national response to AIDS relevant for fiscal policy. The second half of the article focuses on the effectiveness of the response to AIDS. We find that there is little basis for concerns about macroeconomic constraints to scaling up, in light of the moderate scale of AIDS-related aid flows relative to overall aid. Regarding sectoral constraints, the picture is more differentiated. Many countries with high prevalence rates have also achieved high rates of access to treatment, but most of these are middle-income countries. Our econometric analysis credits external aid as a key factor that has enabled higher-prevalence countries to cope with the additional demands for health services. At the same time, gross domestic product per capita and health sector capacities are important determinants of access to treatment. PMID:18664949

  11. New Methods in Exploring Old Topics: Case Studying Brittle Diabetes in the Family Context.

    PubMed

    Günther, Moritz Philipp; Winker, Peter; Wudy, Stefan A; Brosig, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    Background. In questing for a more refined quantitative research approach, we revisited vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling for the analysis of time series data in the context of the so far poorly explored concept of family dynamics surrounding instable diabetes type 1 (or brittle diabetes). Method. We adopted a new approach to VAR analysis from econometrics referred to as the optimized multivariate lag selection process and applied it to a set of raw data previously analyzed through standard approaches. Results. We illustrated recurring psychosomatic circles of cause and effect relationships between emotional and somatic parameters surrounding glycemic control of the child's diabetes and the affective states of all family members. Conclusion. The optimized multivariate lag selection process allowed for more specific, dynamic, and statistically reliable results (increasing R (2) tenfold in explaining glycemic variability), which were derived from a larger window of past explanatory variables (lags). Such highly quantitative versus historic more qualitative approaches to case study analysis of psychosomatics surrounding diabetes in adolescents were reflected critically. PMID:26634215

  12. Urbanization patterns and their determinants in Eastern China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Lifen; Tian, Yongzhong; Zhou, Wenzuo

    2007-09-01

    The selection of urbanization patterns and its determinants are hot issues in China nowadays. Based on land-use remote sensing data estimated from Landsat Thematic Mapper/Enhanced Thematic Mapper digital images of Chinese Academy of Sciences and a unique set of socioeconomic data collected by the authors, according to the build-up area (BUA), we classified the patterns of urbanization into five scales (rural "villages", small townships, small and medium cities, large, and super large cities). Then an econometric model is developed to empirically estimate the determinants of urbanization patterns. Results indicate that BUA expanded rapidly from late 1980s and the patterns of urbanization are associated with policy factors. At the same time, population and economy growth also help affect the development of urbanization patterns. Two important policy implications can be drawn from this study. First, the process of urbanization could be predictable and to some extent controlled through various government policies as the urbanization is strongly related to policy choices. Second, further study is necessary to evaluate China's past and current urbanization strategy that have been focused on the development of both small townships and super large cities since the middle 1990s. The rapid growth of super large cities is an issue that needs more concerns by policy makers.

  13. Disentangling Aerosol Cooling and Greenhouse Warming to Reveal Earth's Climate Sensitivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Storelvmo, Trude; Leirvik, Thomas; Phillips, Petter; Lohmann, Ulrike; Wild, Martin

    2015-04-01

    Earth's climate sensitivity has been the subject of heated debate for decades, and recently spurred renewed interest after the latest IPCC assessment report suggested a downward adjustment of the most likely range of climate sensitivities. Here, we present a study based on the time period 1964 to 2010, which is unique in that it does not rely on global climate models (GCMs) in any way. The study uses surface observations of temperature and incoming solar radiation from approximately 1300 surface sites, along with observations of the equivalent CO2 concentration (CO2,eq) in the atmosphere, to produce a new best estimate for the transient climate sensitivity of 1.9K (95% confidence interval 1.2K - 2.7K). This is higher than other recent observation-based estimates, and is better aligned with the estimate of 1.8K and range (1.1K - 2.5K) derived from the latest generation of GCMs. The new estimate is produced by incorporating the observations in an energy balance framework, and by applying statistical methods that are standard in the field of Econometrics, but less common in climate studies. The study further suggests that about a third of the continental warming due to increasing CO2,eq was masked by aerosol cooling during the time period studied.

  14. Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States

    PubMed Central

    Manson, Steven M.; Evans, Tom

    2007-01-01

    We combine mixed-methods research with integrated agent-based modeling to understand land change and economic decision making in the United States and Mexico. This work demonstrates how sustainability science benefits from combining integrated agent-based modeling (which blends methods from the social, ecological, and information sciences) and mixed-methods research (which interleaves multiple approaches ranging from qualitative field research to quantitative laboratory experiments and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery). We test assumptions of utility-maximizing behavior in household-level landscape management in south-central Indiana, linking parcel data, land cover derived from aerial photography, and findings from laboratory experiments. We examine the role of uncertainty and limited information, preferences, differential demographic attributes, and past experience and future time horizons. We also use evolutionary programming to represent bounded rationality in agriculturalist households in the southern Yucatán of Mexico. This approach captures realistic rule of thumb strategies while identifying social and environmental factors in a manner similar to econometric models. These case studies highlight the role of computational models of decision making in land-change contexts and advance our understanding of decision making in general. PMID:18093928

  15. Impact of socio-economic growth on desalination in the US.

    PubMed

    Ziolkowska, Jadwiga R; Reyes, Reuben

    2016-02-01

    In 2013, around 1336 desalination plants in the United States (US) provided purified water mainly to municipalities, the industry sector and for power generation. In 2013 alone, ?200 million m(3) of water were desalinated; the amount that could satisfy annual municipal water consumption of more than 1.5 million people in the US. Desalination has proven to be a reliable water supply source in many countries around the world, with the total global desalination capacity of ?60 million m(3)/day in 2013. Desalination has been used to mitigate water scarcity and lessen the pressure on water resources. Currently, data and information about desalination are still limited, while extensive socio-economic analyses are missing. This paper presents an econometric model to fill this gap. It evaluates the impact of selected socio-economic variables on desalination development in the US in the time span 1970-2013. The results show that the GDP and population growth have significantly impacted the desalination sector over the analyzed time period. The insights into the economics of desalination provided with this paper can be used to further evaluate cost-effectiveness of desalination both in the US and in other countries around the world. PMID:26610194

  16. Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?*

    PubMed Central

    Shen, Yan; Yao, Yang

    2014-01-01

    Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986–2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections’ positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment. PMID:26052164

  17. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of Propensity Score Matching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-01-01

    The employment of damage mitigation measures by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called Propensity Score Matching to a survey of German households along along two major rivers major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005 and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly € 1700 to € 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between € 6700-14 000 of flood damage. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply Propensity Score Matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of flood damage mitigation measures by the application of propensity score matching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, P.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Kreibich, H.; Bubeck, P.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.

    2014-07-01

    The employment of damage mitigation measures (DMMs) by individuals is an important component of integrated flood risk management. In order to promote efficient damage mitigation measures, accurate estimates of their damage mitigation potential are required. That is, for correctly assessing the damage mitigation measures' effectiveness from survey data, one needs to control for sources of bias. A biased estimate can occur if risk characteristics differ between individuals who have, or have not, implemented mitigation measures. This study removed this bias by applying an econometric evaluation technique called propensity score matching (PSM) to a survey of German households along three major rivers that were flooded in 2002, 2005, and 2006. The application of this method detected substantial overestimates of mitigation measures' effectiveness if bias is not controlled for, ranging from nearly EUR 1700 to 15 000 per measure. Bias-corrected effectiveness estimates of several mitigation measures show that these measures are still very effective since they prevent between EUR 6700 and 14 000 of flood damage per flood event. This study concludes with four main recommendations regarding how to better apply propensity score matching in future studies, and makes several policy recommendations.

  19. Economic development and coastal ecosystem change in China

    PubMed Central

    He, Qiang; Bertness, Mark D.; Bruno, John F.; Li, Bo; Chen, Guoqian; Coverdale, Tyler C.; Altieri, Andrew H.; Bai, Junhong; Sun, Tao; Pennings, Steven C.; Liu, Jianguo; Ehrlich, Paul R.; Cui, Baoshan

    2014-01-01

    Despite their value, coastal ecosystems are globally threatened by anthropogenic impacts, yet how these impacts are driven by economic development is not well understood. We compiled a multifaceted dataset to quantify coastal trends and examine the role of economic growth in China's coastal degradation since the 1950s. Although China's coastal population growth did not change following the 1978 economic reforms, its coastal economy increased by orders of magnitude. All 15 coastal human impacts examined increased over time, especially after the reforms. Econometric analysis revealed positive relationships between most impacts and GDP across temporal and spatial scales, often lacking dropping thresholds. These relationships generally held when influences of population growth were addressed by analyzing per capita impacts, and when population density was included as explanatory variables. Historical trends in physical and biotic indicators showed that China's coastal ecosystems changed little or slowly between the 1950s and 1978, but have degraded at accelerated rates since 1978. Thus economic growth has been the cause of accelerating human damage to China's coastal ecosystems. China's GDP per capita remains very low. Without strict conservation efforts, continuing economic growth will further degrade China's coastal ecosystems. PMID:25104138

  20. Neuroanatomy Predicts Individual Risk Attitudes

    PubMed Central

    Gilaie-Dotan, Sharon; Tymula, Agnieszka; Cooper, Nicole; Kable, Joseph W.; Glimcher, Paul W.

    2014-01-01

    Over the course of the last decade a multitude of studies have investigated the relationship between neural activations and individual human decision-making. Here we asked whether the anatomical features of individual human brains could be used to predict the fundamental preferences of human choosers. To that end, we quantified the risk attitudes of human decision-makers using standard economic tools and quantified the gray matter cortical volume in all brain areas using standard neurobiological tools. Our whole-brain analysis revealed that the gray matter volume of a region in the right posterior parietal cortex was significantly predictive of individual risk attitudes. Participants with higher gray matter volume in this region exhibited less risk aversion. To test the robustness of this finding we examined a second group of participants and used econometric tools to test the ex ante hypothesis that gray matter volume in this area predicts individual risk attitudes. Our finding was confirmed in this second group. Our results, while being silent about causal relationships, identify what might be considered the first stable biomarker for financial risk-attitude. If these results, gathered in a population of midlife northeast American adults, hold in the general population, they will provide constraints on the possible neural mechanisms underlying risk attitudes. The results will also provide a simple measurement of risk attitudes that could be easily extracted from abundance of existing medical brain scans, and could potentially provide a characteristic distribution of these attitudes for policy makers. PMID:25209279

  1. Economic policy and private investment since the oil crisis: a comparative study of France and Germany

    SciTech Connect

    Artus, P.; Muet, P.A.; Palinkas, P.; Pauly, P.

    1980-10-01

    Present investment equations for private business investment (equipment and structures) in France and Germany are presented. The comparative analysis of properties of estimates and the relative importance of explanatory variables are emphasized. The results are presented of a comparative exercise in cliometrics: selective public policy measures actually taken in France and Germany during the period 1973 to 1978 and analyzed with respect to their efficiency as stabilization policy devices. The comparative study is executed within the framework of two comparable quarterly econometric models for the two countries, METRIC for France and SYSIFO for Germany. The basic theoretical framework for business investment in both models is briefly summarized. Empirical results are presented within the respective partial models, namely, the comparative analysis of economic factors explaining the behavior of business investment over the sample period. The comparative results of policy scenarios are presented to evaluate the role of active economic policy in determining the performance of private investment in France and Germany between 1973 and 1978. (MCW)

  2. A Buildings Module for the Stochastic Energy Deployment System

    SciTech Connect

    Lacommare, Kristina S H; Marnay, Chris; Stadler, Michael; Borgeson, Sam; Coffey, Brian; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Lai, Judy

    2008-05-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) is building a new long-range (to 2050) forecasting model for use in budgetary and management applications called the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS), which explicitly incorporates uncertainty through its development within the Analytica(R) platform of Lumina Decision Systems. SEDS is designed to be a fast running (a few minutes), user-friendly model that analysts can readily run and modify in its entirety through a visual programming interface. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory is responsible for implementing the SEDS Buildings Module. The initial Lite version of the module is complete and integrated with a shared code library for modeling demand-side technology choice developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Lumina. The module covers both commercial and residential buildings at the U.S. national level using an econometric forecast of floorspace requirement and a model of building stock turnover as the basis for forecasting overall demand for building services. Although the module is fundamentally an engineering-economic model with technology adoption decisions based on cost and energy performance characteristics of competing technologies, it differs from standard energy forecasting models by including considerations of passive building systems, interactions between technologies (such as internal heat gains), and on-site power generation.

  3. Future Air Conditioning Energy Consumption in Developing Countriesand what can be done about it: The Potential of Efficiency in theResidential Sector

    SciTech Connect

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E.

    2007-05-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interestto energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of thisproduct, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paperaddresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residentialelectricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent historyhas shown that air conditioner ownership can grow grows more rapidly thaneconomic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percentof urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this numberrose to 62 percent. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of airconditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room airconditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 percent peryear, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residentialsector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements toassess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricityconsumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'highefficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownershipand use model based on household income, climate and demographicparameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accountingwith geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a uniqueanalysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenariomodule considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies,and achievable timelines for development of market transformationprograms, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) andlabeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption andemissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.

  4. A Regional Approach to Market Monitoring in the West

    SciTech Connect

    Barmack, Matthew; Kahn, Edward; Tierney, Susan; Goldman, Charles

    2006-10-01

    Market monitoring involves the systematic analysis of pricesand behavior in wholesale power markets to determine when and whetherpotentially anti-competitive behavior is occurring. Regional TransmissionOrganizations (RTOs) typically have a market monitoring function. Becausethe West does not have active RTOs outside of California, it does nothave the market monitoring that RTOs have. In addition, because the Westoutside of California does not have RTOs that perform centralized unitcommitment and dispatch, the rich data that are typically available tomarket monitors in RTO markets are not available in the West outside ofCalifornia. This paper examines the feasibility of market monitoring inthe West outside of California given readily available data. We developsimple econometric models of wholesale power prices in the West thatmight be used for market monitoring. In addition, we examine whetherproduction cost simulations that have been developed for long-runplanning might be useful for market monitoring. We find that simpleeconometric models go a long ways towards explaining wholesale powerprices in the West and might be used to identify potentially anomalousprices. In contrast, we find that the simulated prices from a specificset of production cost simulations exhibit characteristics that aresufficiently different from observed prices that we question theirusefulness for explaining price formation in the West and hence theirusefulness as a market monitoring tool.

  5. Modeling mode choice behavior incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel attributes based on rough sets theory.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Long; Chen, Xuewu; Wei, Ming; Wu, Jingxian; Hou, Xianyao

    2014-01-01

    Most traditional mode choice models are based on the principle of random utility maximization derived from econometric theory. Alternatively, mode choice modeling can be regarded as a pattern recognition problem reflected from the explanatory variables of determining the choices between alternatives. The paper applies the knowledge discovery technique of rough sets theory to model travel mode choices incorporating household and individual sociodemographics and travel information, and to identify the significance of each attribute. The study uses the detailed travel diary survey data of Changxing county which contains information on both household and individual travel behaviors for model estimation and evaluation. The knowledge is presented in the form of easily understood IF-THEN statements or rules which reveal how each attribute influences mode choice behavior. These rules are then used to predict travel mode choices from information held about previously unseen individuals and the classification performance is assessed. The rough sets model shows high robustness and good predictive ability. The most significant condition attributes identified to determine travel mode choices are gender, distance, household annual income, and occupation. Comparative evaluation with the MNL model also proves that the rough sets model gives superior prediction accuracy and coverage on travel mode choice modeling. PMID:25431585

  6. An economic model of the manufacturers' aircraft production and airline earnings potential, volume 3

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kneafsey, J. T.; Hill, R. M.

    1978-01-01

    A behavioral explanation of the process of technological change in the U. S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries is presented. The model indicates the principal factors which influence the aircraft (airframe) manufacturers in researching, developing, constructing and promoting new aircraft technology; and the financial requirements which determine the delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk airlines. Following specification and calibration of the model, the types and numbers of new aircraft were estimated historically for each airline's fleet. Examples of possible applications of the model to forecasting an individual airline's future fleet also are provided. The functional form of the model is a composite which was derived from several preceding econometric models developed on the foundations of the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change and represents an important contribution to the improved understanding of the economic and financial requirements for aircraft selection and production. The model's primary application will be to forecast the future types and numbers of new aircraft required for each domestic airline's fleet.

  7. Measuring the impact of energy consumption and air quality indicators on climate change: evidence from the panel of UNFCC classified countries.

    PubMed

    Ozturk, Ilhan

    2015-10-01

    This study examines the relationship between energy consumption, air pollution, and climate change in the panel of six economically diversified countries classified by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) as industrialized countries and economies in transition nations by using the panel econometric techniques for the period of 1990-2012. The results of pooled least square regression show that both the energy consumption and air quality indicators have a positive and significant relationship with the climate change, i.e., 1 % increase in energy consumption increases greenhouse gas emissions by 0.124 %, carbon dioxide emissions increase by 0.652 %, methane emissions increase by 0.123 %, and nitrous oxide emissions increase greenhouse gas emissions by 0.105 % age points. The results of fixed-effect regression and random-effect regression confirmed the deteriorating impact of air quality indicators on climate change; however, the results failed to show any significant association between energy consumption and climate change when absorbing country-specific shocks and time-variant shocks during the study time period. PMID:26004566

  8. Determining the relative importance of climatic drivers on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems of semi-arid areas.

    PubMed

    Zhu, Likai; Meng, Jijun

    2015-02-01

    Understanding climate controls on spring phenology in grassland ecosystems is critically important in predicting the impacts of future climate change on grassland productivity and carbon storage. The third-generation Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS3g) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were applied to derive the start of the growing season (SOS) from 1982-2010 in grassland ecosystems of Ordos, a typical semi-arid area in China. Then, the conditional Granger causality method was utilized to quantify the directed functional connectivity between key climatic drivers and the SOS. The results show that the asymmetric Gaussian (AG) function is better in reducing noise of NDVI time series than the double logistic (DL) function within our study area. The southeastern Ordos has earlier occurrence and lower variability of the SOS, whereas the northwestern Ordos has later occurrence and higher variability of the SOS. The research also reveals that spring precipitation has stronger causal connectivity with the SOS than other climatic factors over different grassland ecosystem types. There is no statistically significant trend across the study area, while the similar pattern is observed for spring precipitation. Our study highlights the link of spring phenology with different grassland types, and the use of coupling remote sensing and econometric tools. With the dramatic increase in global change research, Granger causality method augurs well for further development and application of time-series modeling of complex social-ecological systems at the intersection of remote sensing and landscape changes. PMID:25487765

  9. Aviation System Analysis Capability Air Carrier Investment Model-Cargo

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Jesse; Santmire, Tara

    1999-01-01

    The purpose of the Aviation System Analysis Capability (ASAC) Air Cargo Investment Model-Cargo (ACIMC), is to examine the economic effects of technology investment on the air cargo market, particularly the market for new cargo aircraft. To do so, we have built an econometrically based model designed to operate like the ACIM. Two main drivers account for virtually all of the demand: the growth rate of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and changes in the fare yield (which is a proxy of the price charged or fare). These differences arise from a combination of the nature of air cargo demand and the peculiarities of the air cargo market. The net effect of these two factors are that sales of new cargo aircraft are much less sensitive to either increases in GDP or changes in the costs of labor, capital, fuel, materials, and energy associated with the production of new cargo aircraft than the sales of new passenger aircraft. This in conjunction with the relatively small size of the cargo aircraft market means technology improvements to the cargo aircraft will do relatively very little to spur increased sales of new cargo aircraft.

  10. Do Executives' Backgrounds Matter to IPO Investors? Evidence from the Life Science Industry

    PubMed Central

    Chok, Jay; Qian, Jifeng

    2013-01-01

    In this study, we focus on the impact of senior executives' industry backgrounds on the amount of capital raised in the stock market. The primary contribution of the study entails applying the upper echelon theory to the initial public offering (IPO) phenomenon. Specifically, we hypothesize that the industry backgrounds of corporate executives affect the amount of capital that the firm raised in the primary stock market. We argue that the firm's future investment strategies are unobserved by the investors ex-ante and investors expect firms' investment strategies to be based on the executives' industry backgrounds. As a result, the executives' industry backgrounds influence the investors' expectations about what investment strategies the firm is likely to deploy. Furthermore, the above logic also suggests that executives of different industry backgrounds should prefer different investment strategies corresponding with demand for different amount of capital. As a result, we expect the industry backgrounds to covary with the capital raised from both the supply and demand perspectives. To test the hypotheses, we ran a reduced econometric model wherein the executives' background predicts the amount of capital raised. Regression analyses suggest that the capital raised is negatively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in the healthcare and genomic sectors but positively associated with the number of senior executives with prior career experience in regulatory affairs. The results provide tentative support for the notion that investors infer corporate strategies from senior executives' industry backgrounds. PMID:23690920

  11. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shaojian; Fang, Chuanglin; Li, Guangdong

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China's CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995-2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  12. Implications of heterogeneous impacts of protected areas on deforestation and poverty.

    PubMed

    Hanauer, Merlin M; Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo

    2015-11-01

    Protected areas are a popular policy instrument in the global fight against loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services. However, the effectiveness of protected areas in preventing deforestation, and their impacts on poverty, are not well understood. Recent studies have found that Bolivia's protected-area system, on average, reduced deforestation and poverty. We implement several non-parametric and semi-parametric econometric estimators to characterize the heterogeneity in Bolivia's protected-area impacts on joint deforestation and poverty outcomes across a number of socioeconomic and biophysical moderators. Like previous studies from Costa Rica and Thailand, we find that Bolivia's protected areas are not associated with poverty traps. Our results also indicate that protection did not have a differential impact on indigenous populations. However, results from new multidimensional non-parametric estimators provide evidence that the biophysical characteristics associated with the greatest avoided deforestation are the characteristics associated with the potential for poverty exacerbation from protection. We demonstrate that these results would not be identified using the methods implemented in previous studies. Thus, this study provides valuable practical information on the impacts of Bolivia's protected areas for conservation practitioners and demonstrates methods that are likely to be valuable to researchers interested in better understanding the heterogeneity in conservation impacts. PMID:26460125

  13. Metric use in the tool industry. A status report and a test of assessment methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cushen, W. E.

    1982-04-01

    This study served a dual purpose of testing the most promising methods of assessing metric status in the United States while providing an assessment of the current status and progress of metrication activities of the machine tool industry. The machine tool industry provides capital equipment for other manufacturing industries including the automotive, aerospace, construction, and farm machinery industry. It is a small but critical segment of the national economy. There have been a number of studies of industrial metrication, but they dealt with broad categories of industry and provided little detailed information about specific industries or about the process. This study draws directly on the experience of industry companies and on data from many public and private sources. Some of the major findings are: (1) Metrication is progressing slowly but steadly in the U.S. Machine Tool Industry. (2) The U.S. Machine Tool Industry meets overseas demand and the small domestic demand for metric tools by building metric-capable machines. (3) The serious decline of the U.s. share of the world market has been somewhat masked by the fact that the dollar volume of U.S. overseas sales has increased. (4) Because of the paucity of data, assessment of metric status in specific industries cannot be handled through econometric modeling or aggregation of massive amounts of statistical data.

  14. Implications of the recent reductions in natural gas prices for emissions of CO2 from the US power sector.

    PubMed

    Lu, Xi; Salovaara, Jackson; McElroy, Michael B

    2012-03-01

    CO(2) emissions from the US power sector decreased by 8.76% in 2009 relative to 2008 contributing to a decrease over this period of 6.59% in overall US emissions of greenhouse gases. An econometric model, tuned to data reported for regional generation of US electricity, is used to diagnose factors responsible for the 2009 decrease. More than half of the reduction is attributed to a shift from generation of power using coal to gas driven by a recent decrease in gas prices in response to the increase in production from shale. An important result of the model is that, when the cost differential for generation using gas rather than coal falls below 2-3 cents/kWh, less efficient coal fired plants are displaced by more efficient natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) generation alternatives. Costs for generation using NGCC decreased by close to 4 cents/kWh in 2009 relative to 2008 ensuring that generation of electricity using gas was competitive with coal in 2009 in contrast to the situation in 2008 when gas prices were much higher. A modest price on carbon could contribute to additional switching from coal to gas with further savings in CO(2) emissions. PMID:22321206

  15. Gender differences in alcohol demand: a systematic review of the role of prices and taxes.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jon P

    2014-10-01

    Gender differences in drinking patterns are potentially important for public policies, especially policies that rely extensively on higher alcohol taxes and prices. This paper presents a systematic review of alcohol prices and gender differences in drinking and heavy drinking by adults and young adults. Starting with a database of 578 studies of alcohol demand and other outcomes, 15 studies are reviewed of adult drinking including discussion of samples, measurement issues, econometric models, special variables, and key empirical results. A similar discussion is presented for eight studies of drinking by young adults, ages 18-26?years. Four conclusions are obtained from the review. First, adult men have less elastic demands compared with women. Second, there is little or no price response by heavy-drinking adults, regardless of gender. Third, although the sample is small, price might be important for drinking participation by young adults. Fourth, the results strongly suggest that heavy drinking by young adults, regardless of gender, is not easily dissuaded by higher prices. Policy implications, primary study limitations, and suggestions for future research are discussed. PMID:23868570

  16. Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Aydin, Alev Dilek; Caliskan Cavdar, Seyma

    2015-01-01

    The ANN method has been applied by means of multilayered feedforward neural networks (MLFNs) by using different macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate of USD/TRY, gold prices, and the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index based on monthly data over the period of January 2000 and September 2014 for Turkey. Vector autoregressive (VAR) method has also been applied with the same variables for the same period of time. In this study, different from other studies conducted up to the present, ENCOG machine learning framework has been used along with JAVA programming language in order to constitute the ANN. The training of network has been done by resilient propagation method. The ex post and ex ante estimates obtained by the ANN method have been compared with the results obtained by the econometric forecasting method of VAR. Strikingly, our findings based on the ANN method reveal that there is a possibility of financial distress or a financial crisis in Turkey starting from October 2017. The results which were obtained with the method of VAR also support the results of ANN method. Additionally, our results indicate that the ANN approach has more superior prediction performance than the VAR method. PMID:26550010

  17. Obesity and access to chain grocers.

    PubMed

    Chen, Susan; Florax, Raymond J G M; Snyder, Samantha; Miller, Christopher C

    2010-01-01

    Recent empirical work in the obesity literature has highlighted the role of the built environment and its potential influence in the increasing prevalence of obesity in adults and children. One feature of the built environment that has gained increasing attention is the role of access to chain grocers and their impact on body mass index (BMI). The assessment of the impacts of spatial access to chain grocers on BMI is complicated by two empirical regularities in the data. There is evidence that health outcomes such as BMI are clustered in space and that there is spatial dependence across individuals. In this article, we use an econometric model that takes into account the spatial dependence, and we allow the effect of access to differ for a person depending on whether he or she lives in a low-income community or peer group. We categorize this community using the characteristics of the people who immediately surround the individual rather than using census tracts. Using georeferenced survey data on adults in Marion County, Indiana, we find that the effect of improvements in chain grocer access on BMI varies depending on community characteristics. PMID:21117331

  18. The burden of natural and technological disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product (GDP) in the WHO African region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, W; Mwabu, Germano M

    2002-01-01

    The WHO Africa region has the highest disaster mortality rate compared to the other five regions of the organization. Those deaths are hypothesized to have significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. We estimated the impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data (from the UNDP and the World Bank publications) on 45 out of 46 countries in the WHO African Region. The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The abovementioned explanatory variables were found to have statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.018. We have demonstrated that disaster mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increase in educational enrolment, they should always recall that investments in strengthening national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively shall yield significant economic returns. PMID:17298162

  19. Impact of disaster-related mortality on gross domestic product in the WHO African Region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Sambo, Luis G; Aldis, William; Mwabu, Germano M

    2004-03-15

    BACKGROUND: Disaster-related mortality is a growing public health concern in the African Region. These deaths are hypothesized to have a significantly negative effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of this study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to natural and technological disaster-related mortality in the WHO African Region. METHODS: The impact of disaster-related mortality on GDP was estimated using double-log econometric model and cross-sectional data on various Member States in the WHO African Region. The analysis was based on 45 of the 46 countries in the Region. The data was obtained from various UNDP and World Bank publications. RESULTS: The coefficients for capital (K), educational enrolment (EN), life expectancy (LE) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while imports (M) and disaster mortality (DS) were found to impact negatively on GDP. The above-mentioned explanatory variables were found to have a statistically significant effect on GDP at 5% level in a t-distribution test. Disaster mortality of a single person was found to reduce GDP by US$0.01828. CONCLUSIONS: We have demonstrated that disaster-related mortality has a significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through capital investment, export promotion and increased educational enrolment, they should always keep in mind that investments made in the strengthening of national capacity to mitigate the effects of national disasters expeditiously and effectively will yield significant economic returns. PMID:15113453

  20. Effects of maternal mortality on gross domestic product (GDP) in the WHO African region.

    PubMed

    Kirigia, Joses M; Oluwole, Doyin; Mwabu, Germano M; Gatwiri, Doris; Kainyu, Lenity H

    2006-01-01

    WHO African region has got the highest maternal mortality rate compared to the other five regions. Maternal mortality is hypothesized to have significantly negative effect on the gross domestic product (GDP). The objective of the current study was to estimate the loss in GDP attributable to maternal mortality in the WHO African Region. The burden of maternal mortality on GDP was estimated using a double-log econometric model. The analysis is based on cross-sectional data for 45 of the 46 Member States in the WHO African Region. Data were obtained from UNDP and the World Bank publications. All the explanatory variables included in the double-log model were found to have statistically significant effect on per capita gross domestic product (GDP) at 5 % level in a t-distribution test. The coefficients for land (D), capital (K), educational enrollment (EN) and exports (X) had a positive sign; while labor (L), imports (M) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) were found to impact negatively on GDP. Maternal mortality of a single person was found to reduce per capita GDP by US $ 0.36 per year. The study has demonstrated that maternal mortality has a statistically significant negative effect on GDP. Thus, as policy-makers strive to increase GDP through land reform programs, capital investments, export promotion and increase in educational enrollment, they should always remember that investment in maternal mortality-reducing interventions promises significant economic returns. PMID:17348747

  1. Neighborhood Ethnic Composition, Spatial Assimilation, and Change in Body Mass Index Over Time Among Hispanic and Chinese Immigrants: Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Albrecht, Sandra S.; Osypuk, Theresa L.; Sánchez, Brisa N.; Diez Roux, Ana V.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We investigated relations between changes in neighborhood ethnic composition and changes in body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference among Chinese and Hispanic immigrants in the United States. Methods. We used Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis data over a median 9-year follow-up (2000–2002 to 2010–2012) among Chinese (n?=?642) and Hispanic (n?=?784) immigrants aged 45 to 84 years at baseline. We incorporated information about residential moves and used econometric fixed-effects models to control for confounding by time-invariant characteristics. We characterized neighborhood racial/ethnic composition with census tract–level percentage Asian for Chinese participants and percentage Hispanic for Hispanic participants (neighborhood coethnic concentration). Results. In covariate-adjusted longitudinal fixed-effects models, results suggested associations between decreasing neighborhood coethnic concentration and increasing weight, although results were imprecise: within-person BMI increases associated with an interquartile range decrease in coethnic concentration were 0.15 kilograms per meters squared (95% confidence interval [CI]?=?0.00, 0.30) among Chinese and 0.17 kilograms per meters squared (95% CI?=?–0.17, 0.51) among Hispanic participants. Results did not differ between those who did and did not move during follow-up. Conclusions. Residential neighborhoods may help shape chronic disease risk among immigrants. PMID:25211724

  2. Cheaper faster drug development validated by the repositioning of drugs against neglected tropical diseases

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Kevin; Bilsland, Elizabeth; Sparkes, Andrew; Aubrey, Wayne; Young, Michael; Soldatova, Larisa N.; De Grave, Kurt; Ramon, Jan; de Clare, Michaela; Sirawaraporn, Worachart; Oliver, Stephen G.; King, Ross D.

    2015-01-01

    There is an urgent need to make drug discovery cheaper and faster. This will enable the development of treatments for diseases currently neglected for economic reasons, such as tropical and orphan diseases, and generally increase the supply of new drugs. Here, we report the Robot Scientist ‘Eve’ designed to make drug discovery more economical. A Robot Scientist is a laboratory automation system that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to discover scientific knowledge through cycles of experimentation. Eve integrates and automates library-screening, hit-confirmation, and lead generation through cycles of quantitative structure activity relationship learning and testing. Using econometric modelling we demonstrate that the use of AI to select compounds economically outperforms standard drug screening. For further efficiency Eve uses a standardized form of assay to compute Boolean functions of compound properties. These assays can be quickly and cheaply engineered using synthetic biology, enabling more targets to be assayed for a given budget. Eve has repositioned several drugs against specific targets in parasites that cause tropical diseases. One validated discovery is that the anti-cancer compound TNP-470 is a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase from the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax. PMID:25652463

  3. Role of sugar cane in Brazil's history and economy

    SciTech Connect

    Nastari, P.M.

    1983-01-01

    The history and evolution of the sugar-cane culture in Brazil is reviewed. An econometric model is constructed to explain the economic relationships of supply and demand of sugar, hydrous ethanol (ethyl alcohol), and anhydrous ethanol in Brazil overtime. Estimates of the parameters in the model are obtained using the methods of ordinary least squares and three stages least squares. Because the number of exogenous variables is larger than the number of observations, principal components of the exogenous variables is used. The model estimated using three stages least squares with seven principal components has the best performance among the alternatives considered. Using the estimated model, the level of a number of policy variables is determined in consistency with the objectives of ethanol production established by the Brazilian government for 1985. It is estimated that in 1985 the proportion of anhydrous ethanol added to gasoline must be 16.5%. Analysis of the net income accrued by producers and the government since the creation of the National Alcohol Program (Proalcool) in 1975 reveals that producers of sugar have been able to triple their net annual income. Independent producers of ethanol have also been able to accrue positive net results during this period. It is concluded that the Proalcool has been beneficial to the Brazilian economy, largely because of the savings in oil imports and the internal creation of jobs, while at the same time it has contributed to a superavit in the government's budget.

  4. Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

    2013-11-01

    This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

  5. Oil: Lessons from Comparative Perspectives for Ghana

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Osei-Boakye, Maame Frema

    Oil as it relates to maintenance of energy consumption is becoming a very important acquired resource all around the world. This thesis focuses on Ghana as a place where recent oil discoveries have taken place, to assess the current policies being put in place to avoid the oil pitfalls of their other African counterparts and to examine oil models that could possibly work to reinforce a positive outcome for the new found oil industry in Ghana. These research aims were met through extensive research of relevant literature. The research resulted in the finding that the Ghanaian government would benefit from a combination of economic models that have been used in the past (spend all, save all and spend interest only). The main conclusion that has resulted from this research is that through strong fiscal policies towards the Ghanaian oil industry Ghana should be able to maintain a relatively stable economy which in turn will produce a stable country all around. This research argues that by creating strong policies and using a combination of the econometric oil models this will help Ghana account for the immediate need for things like infrastructure while also saving money for when/if the oil is no longer being produced in the country.

  6. Deregulation-restructuring: Evidence for individual industries

    SciTech Connect

    Costello, K.W.; Graniere, R.J.

    1997-05-01

    Several studies have measured the effects of regulation on a particular industry. These studies range widely in sophistication, from simple observation (comparison) of pre-transformation and post-transformation actual industry performance to econometric analysis that attempt to separate the effects of deregulation from other factors in explaining changes in an industry`s performance. The major problem with observation studies is that they are unable to measure the effect of one particular event, such as deregulation, on an industry`s performance. For example, at the same time that the United Kingdom privatized its electric power industry, it also radically restructured the industry to encourage competition and instituted a price-cap mechanism to regulate the prices of transmission, distribution, and bundled retail services. Subsequent to these changes in 1991, real prices for most UK electricity customers have fallen. It is not certain however, which of these factors was most important or even contributed to the decline in price. In any event, one must be cautious in interpreting the results of studies that attempt to measure the effect of deregulation per se for a specific industry. This report highlights major outcomes for five industries undergoing deregulation or major regulatory and restructuring reforms. These include the natural gas, transportation, UK electric power, financial, and telecommunications industries. Particular attention was given to the historical development of events in the telecommunications industry.

  7. An interregional hedonic analysis of noxious facility impacts on local wages and property values

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, D.E.; Nieves, L.A.

    1991-01-01

    Claims of property value loss are commonly raised by homeowners when noxious facilities are sited or when new information about the hazards of existing facilities is made public. While the capitalization of externalities into land values is consistent with economic theory, empirical measurement of impacts has not generated consistent results. This is true both for hedonic measurements as well as other types of econometric analyses. While it is well established that job and site risks have similar impacts on regional labor markets, there are no studies relating the presence of a broad range of noxious facilities to local wage premiums. In contrast, this study employs an interregional framework in a hedonic analysis of both wage and property markets and considers eight different facility classifications. This paper discusses the development of the hedonic model employed in this study. It develops more fully the theoretical advantages of the intercity model and alternative methods of deriving implicit prices for environmental amenities and disamenities. The unique data base and the structure of the estimated model are described. It also includes a discussion of the research findings. Major conclusions and suggestions for further research are presented.

  8. An interregional hedonic analysis of noxious facility impacts on local wages and property values

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, D.E.; Nieves, L.A.

    1991-12-31

    Claims of property value loss are commonly raised by homeowners when noxious facilities are sited or when new information about the hazards of existing facilities is made public. While the capitalization of externalities into land values is consistent with economic theory, empirical measurement of impacts has not generated consistent results. This is true both for hedonic measurements as well as other types of econometric analyses. While it is well established that job and site risks have similar impacts on regional labor markets, there are no studies relating the presence of a broad range of noxious facilities to local wage premiums. In contrast, this study employs an interregional framework in a hedonic analysis of both wage and property markets and considers eight different facility classifications. This paper discusses the development of the hedonic model employed in this study. It develops more fully the theoretical advantages of the intercity model and alternative methods of deriving implicit prices for environmental amenities and disamenities. The unique data base and the structure of the estimated model are described. It also includes a discussion of the research findings. Major conclusions and suggestions for further research are presented.

  9. Failure Impact Analysis of Key Management in AMI Using Cybernomic Situational Assessment (CSA)

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Hauser, Katie R; Lantz, Margaret W; Mili, Ali

    2013-01-01

    In earlier work, we presented a computational framework for quantifying the security of a system in terms of the average loss a stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of threats to the system. We named this system, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES). In this paper, we refine the framework and apply it to cryptographic key management within the Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI) as an example. The stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats are determined. We then populate the matrices with justified values by addressing the AMI at a higher level, rather than trying to consider every piece of hardware and software involved. We accomplish this task by leveraging the recently established NISTR 7628 guideline for smart grid security. This allowed us to choose the stakeholders, requirements, components, and threats realistically. We reviewed the literature and selected an industry technical working group to select three representative threats from a collection of 29 threats. From this subset, we populate the stakes, dependency, and impact matrices, and the threat vector with realistic numbers. Each Stakeholder s Mean Failure Cost is then computed.

  10. Outlook for improved automobile fuel efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Ford, A.; Sutherland, R.J.

    1982-06-01

    The prospects of improved fuel efficiency in new cars through 1995 are analyzed. We estimate the costs of retooling and the optimal rate of retooling as a function of the price of gasoline and the discounted life of the car. With these estimates, and an econometric model of market shares of five car classes, we estimate that the average new fleet fuel efficiency will be 32 mpg in 1985 and about 39 mpg in 1995 if all car classes are optimally retooled. If only three of five car classes are retooled, the new car fleet should obtain 31 mpg in 1985, which exceeds the Government mandated 27.5 mpg. We examine three potential policies - differential pricing, gas guzzler tax, and a gasoline tax - in terms of their cost and effectiveness of shifting the mix in demand for new cars and thereby improving overall fuel economy. These policies would produce a large redistribution of expenditures, and only a moderate improvement in fuel efficiency would be achieved.

  11. Assessments of Wind-Energy Potential in Selected Sites from Three Geopolitical Zones in Nigeria: Implications for Renewable/Sustainable Rural Electrification

    PubMed Central

    Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

  12. The challenges of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution through energy sources: evidence from a panel of developed countries.

    PubMed

    Akhmat, Ghulam; Zaman, Khalid; Shukui, Tan; Sajjad, Faiza; Khan, Muhammad Azhar; Khan, Muhammad Zahir

    2014-06-01

    The objective of the study is to investigate the long-run relationship between climatic factors (i.e., greenhouse gas emissions, agricultural methane emissions, and industrial nitrous oxide emission), air pollution (i.e., carbon dioxide emissions), and energy sources (i.e., nuclear energy; oil, gas, and coal energy; and fossil fuel energy) in the panel of 35 developed countries (including EU-15, new EU member states, G-7, and other countries) over a period of 1975-2012. In order to achieve this objective, the present study uses sophisticated panel econometric techniques including panel cointegration, panel fully modified OLS (FMOLS), and dynamic OLS (DOLS). The results show that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. Nuclear energy reduces greenhouse gases and carbon emissions; however, the other emissions, i.e., agricultural methane emissions and industrial nitrous oxide, are still to increase during the study period. Electricity production from oil, gas, and coal sources increases the greenhouse gases and carbon emissions; however, the intensity to increase emissions is far less than the intensity to increase emissions through fossil fuel. Policies that reduce emissions of greenhouse gases can simultaneously alter emissions of conventional pollutants that have deleterious effects on human health and the environment. PMID:24584642

  13. Modeling global and regional energy futures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rethinaraj, T. S. Gopi

    A rigorous econometric calibration of a model of energy consumption is presented using a comprehensive time series database on energy consumption and other socioeconomic indicators. The future of nuclear power in the evolving distribution of various energy sources is also examined. An important consideration for the long-term future of nuclear power concerns the rate of decline of the fraction of energy that comes from coal, which has historically declined on a global basis about linearly as a function of the cumulative use of coal. The use of fluid fossil fuels is also expected to eventually decline as the more readily extractable deposits are depleted. The investigation here is restricted to examining a comparatively simple model of the dynamics of competition between nuclear and other competing energy sources. Using a defined tropical/temperate disaggregation of the world, region-specific modeling results are presented for population growth, GDP growth, energy use, and carbon use compatible with a gradual transition to energy sustainability. Results for the fractions of energy use from various sources by grouping nine commercial primary energy sources into pairs of competing fuel categories are presented in combination with the idea of experiential learning and resource depletion. Analysis based on this division provides estimates for future evolution of the fractional shares, annual use rates, cumulative use of individual energy sources, and the economic attractiveness of spent nuclear fuel reprocessing. This unified approach helps to conceptualize and understand the dynamics of evolution of importance of various energy resources over time.

  14. The comparison of robust partial least squares regression with robust principal component regression on a real

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polat, Esra; Gunay, Suleyman

    2013-10-01

    One of the problems encountered in Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) is multicollinearity, which causes the overestimation of the regression parameters and increase of the variance of these parameters. Hence, in case of multicollinearity presents, biased estimation procedures such as classical Principal Component Regression (CPCR) and Partial Least Squares Regression (PLSR) are then performed. SIMPLS algorithm is the leading PLSR algorithm because of its speed, efficiency and results are easier to interpret. However, both of the CPCR and SIMPLS yield very unreliable results when the data set contains outlying observations. Therefore, Hubert and Vanden Branden (2003) have been presented a robust PCR (RPCR) method and a robust PLSR (RPLSR) method called RSIMPLS. In RPCR, firstly, a robust Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method for high-dimensional data on the independent variables is applied, then, the dependent variables are regressed on the scores using a robust regression method. RSIMPLS has been constructed from a robust covariance matrix for high-dimensional data and robust linear regression. The purpose of this study is to show the usage of RPCR and RSIMPLS methods on an econometric data set, hence, making a comparison of two methods on an inflation model of Turkey. The considered methods have been compared in terms of predictive ability and goodness of fit by using a robust Root Mean Squared Error of Cross-validation (R-RMSECV), a robust R2 value and Robust Component Selection (RCS) statistic.

  15. Cost-minimizing industry structure for petroleum refining: an application of contestable market theory and multiproduct cost functions

    SciTech Connect

    Shoesmith, G.L.

    1986-01-01

    Since the elimination of crude-oil price controls and the entitlements program in 1980, the US petroleum-refining industry has undergone significant changes in structure and technology. The number of refineries has declined from 303 in January 1981 to 191 in January 1985. Several mergers and acquisitions among major refiners have resulted in some reductions in capacity as plants have been retired or sold to independents. Meanwhile, capital investment in existing refineries has made the US industry much more flexible in terms of handling various grades of crude oil. This research first estimates econometrically the long run cost structure of petroleum refining operations using a translog multiproduct cost function and company refining data from the Financial Reporting System (FRS) maintained by the Energy Information Administration. The principles of contestable market theory are then applied to the estimated cost function to determine the cost minimizing number and size of overall company refining operations. It is determined that the existing structure is not sustainable due to the discrepancy between the optimal and existing industry structures and the fact that firms are not producing where price equals marginal cost for each of the three products: motor gasoline, distillate fuels, and other refined products.

  16. A study of suicide and socioeconomic factors.

    PubMed

    Ying, Yung-Hsiang; Chang, Koyin

    2009-04-01

    The topic of suicide has long been an important socioeconomic issue studied in many countries. Suicides inject an atmosphere of unrest into society, and media attention furthers that social uneasiness. From the viewpoint of economics and management, suicide is a waste of human resource: it decreases the labor force in society and deteriorates human capital. This paper provides a series of analyses of suicide rate based on theoretical reasoning and empirical approaches. Aggregate data from G7 countries are obtained and stacked into panel data for analysis. Data are collected for different age groups. Even though suicide issues have been extensively discussed in the past, newly developed econometric tools are applied to her. Beyond previously recognized relationships between economic factors and suicide rates findings include that unemployment strikes men more than women in terms of psychological pressure: for middle age or older women, unemployment may even be positive for the entire family; and female labor force participation exerts pressure on male counterparts and increases its suicide rate. As a result, a low income family with an unemployed man and an employed woman is at high risk for adult male suicide. PMID:19527162

  17. Volatility and Uncertainty in Environmental Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maniloff, Peter Taylor

    Environmental policy is increasingly implemented via market mechanisms. While this is in many ways a great success for the economics profession, a number of questions remain. In this dissertation, I empirically explore the question of what will happen as environmental outcomes are coupled to potentially volatile market phenomena, whether policies can insulate environmental outcomes and market shocks, and policymakers should act to mitigate such volatility. I use a variety of empirical methods including reduced form and structural econometrics as well as theoretical models to consider a variety of policy, market, and institutional contexts. The effectiveness of market interventions depends on the context and on the policy mechanism. In particular, energy markets are characterized by low demand elasticities and kinked supply curves which are very flat below a capacity constraint (elastic) and very steep above it (inelastic). This means that a quantity-based policy that acts on demand, such as releasing additional pollution emission allowances from a reserved fund would be an effective way to constrain price shocks in a cap-and-trade system. However, a quantity-based policy that lowers the need for inframarginal supply, such as using ethanol as an oil product substitute to mitigate oil shocks, would be ineffective. Similarly, the benefits of such interventions depends on the macroeconomic impacts of price shocks from the sector. Relatedly, I show that a liability rule designed to reduce risk from low-probability, high-consequence oil spills have very low compliance costs.

  18. The effect of activity-based financing on hospital efficiency: a panel data analysis of DEA efficiency scores 1992-2000.

    PubMed

    Biørn, Erik; Hagen, Terje P; Iversen, Tor; Magnussen, Jon

    2003-11-01

    Activity-based financing (ABF) was implemented in the Norwegian hospital sector from 1 July 1997. A fraction of the block grant from the state to the county councils has been replaced by a matching grant depending upon the number and composition of hospital treatments. As a result of the reform, the majority of county councils have introduced activity-based contracts with their hospitals. This paper studies the effect of activity-based funding on hospital efficiency. We predict that hospital efficiency will increase because the benefit from cost-reducing efforts in terms of number of treated patients is increased under ABF as compared with global budgets. The prediction is tested using a panel data set from the period 1992-2000. Efficiency indicators are estimated by means of data envelopment analysis (DEA) with multiple inputs and outputs. Using a variety of econometric methods, we find that the introduction of ABF has improved efficiency when measured as technical efficiency according to DEA analysis. The result is less uniform with respect to the effect on cost-efficiency. PMID:14686633

  19. Causal effects of socioeconomic status on central adiposity risks: Evidence using panel data from urban Mexico.

    PubMed

    Levasseur, Pierre

    2015-07-01

    Associated with overweight, obesity and chronic diseases, the nutrition transition process reveals important socioeconomic issues in Mexico. Using panel data from the Mexican Family Life Survey, the purpose of the study is to estimate the causal effect of household socioeconomic status (SES) on nutritional outcomes among urban adults. We divide the analysis into two steps. First, using a mixed clustering procedure, we distinguish four socioeconomic classes based on income, educational and occupational dimensions: (i) a poor class; (ii) a lower-middle class; (iii) an upper-middle class; (iv) a rich class. Second, using an econometric framework adapted to our study (the Hausman-Taylor estimator), we measure the impact of belonging to these socioeconomic groups on individual anthropometric indicators, based on the body-mass index (BMI) and the waist-to-height ratio (WHtR). Our results make several contributions: (i) we show that a new middle class, rising out of poverty, is the most exposed to the risks of adiposity; (ii) as individuals from the upper class seem to be fatter than individuals from the upper-middle class, we can reject the assumption of an inverted U-shaped relationship between socioeconomic and anthropometric status as commonly suggested in emerging economies; (iii) the influence of SES on central adiposity appears to be particularly strong for men. PMID:26004210

  20. Model of world energy markets and OPEC pricing

    SciTech Connect

    Choe, B.J.

    1984-01-01

    This paper presents an analysis of the world energy and petroleum markets, carried out by means of an econometric simulation model. The model accepts a certain pricing path for OPEC crude oil (a price seen as being chosen by OPEC mainly on the basis of its revenue implications) together with assumptions about GDP and population growth, and generates energy balance projections for seven world regions - three industrial country regions and four developing country groups. The demand side of the model consists of three end-use sectors (transportation, industrial and residential/commercial) and one energy transformation sector (thermal power generation). The model presently has an endogenous supply specification only for coal. The performance of the model in simulating the historical period of the 1970s was reasonably satisfactory. Simulation results under a range of assumptions about future economic growth and OPEC pricing portend that world demand for energy and petroleum is likely to remain at relatively low levels throughout the 1980s and the early 1990s. Past and expected petroleum price increases will provide a strong and sustained incentive to substitute away from energy and petroleum; enough to keep the demand for OPEC oil comfortably within OPEC's productive capacity through the early 1990s. Coal will play a key role as a substitute fuel for the next 20 years. About two-thirds of the projected incremental demand for primary energy between 1978 and the year 2000 is accounted for by developing countries. 87 references, 8 figures, 45 tables.

  1. New Methods in Exploring Old Topics: Case Studying Brittle Diabetes in the Family Context

    PubMed Central

    Günther, Moritz Philipp; Winker, Peter; Wudy, Stefan A.; Brosig, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    Background. In questing for a more refined quantitative research approach, we revisited vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling for the analysis of time series data in the context of the so far poorly explored concept of family dynamics surrounding instable diabetes type 1 (or brittle diabetes). Method. We adopted a new approach to VAR analysis from econometrics referred to as the optimized multivariate lag selection process and applied it to a set of raw data previously analyzed through standard approaches. Results. We illustrated recurring psychosomatic circles of cause and effect relationships between emotional and somatic parameters surrounding glycemic control of the child's diabetes and the affective states of all family members. Conclusion. The optimized multivariate lag selection process allowed for more specific, dynamic, and statistically reliable results (increasing R2 tenfold in explaining glycemic variability), which were derived from a larger window of past explanatory variables (lags). Such highly quantitative versus historic more qualitative approaches to case study analysis of psychosomatics surrounding diabetes in adolescents were reflected critically. PMID:26634215

  2. Potential impact of Thailand's alcohol program on production, consumption, and trade of cassava, sugarcane, and corn

    SciTech Connect

    Boonserm, P.

    1985-01-01

    On the first of May 1980, Thailand's fuel-alcohol program was announced by the Thai government. According to the program, a target of 147 million liters of ethanol would be produced in 1981, from cassava, sugarcane, and other biomasses. Projecting increases in output each year, the target level of ethanol produciton was set at 482 million liters of ethanol for 1986. The proposed amount of ethanol production could create a major shift up in the demand schedule of energy crops such as cassava, sugarcane, and corn. The extent of the adjustments in price, production, consumption, and exports for these energy crops need to be evaluated. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential impact of Thailand's fuel-alcohol program on price, production, consumption, and exports of three potential energy crops: cassava, sugarcane, and corn. Econometric commodity models of cassava, sugarcane, and corn are constructed and used as a method of assessment. The overall results of the forecasting simulations of the models indicate that the fuel-alcohol program proposed by the Thai government will cause the price, production, and total consumption of cassava, sugarcane, and corn to increase; on the other hand, it will cause exports to decline. In addition, based on the relative prices and the technical coefficients of ethanol production of these three energy crops, this study concludes that only cassava should be used to produce the proposed target of ethanol production.

  3. Managing Complex IT Security Processes with Value Based Measures

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

    2009-01-01

    Current trends indicate that IT security measures will need to greatly expand to counter the ever increasingly sophisticated, well-funded and/or economically motivated threat space. Traditional risk management approaches provide an effective method for guiding courses of action for assessment, and mitigation investments. However, such approaches no matter how popular demand very detailed knowledge about the IT security domain and the enterprise/cyber architectural context. Typically, the critical nature and/or high stakes require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach that provides reliable and consistent methods for rating vulnerabilities. As reported in earlier works, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System provides a comprehensive measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. This paper advocates a dependability measure that acknowledges the aggregate structure of complex system specifications, and accounts for variations by stakeholder, by specification components, and by verification and validation impact.

  4. Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

    SciTech Connect

    Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

    2008-01-01

    Good security metrics are required to make good decisions about how to design security countermeasures, to choose between alternative security architectures, and to improve security during operations. Therefore, in essence, measurement can be viewed as a decision aid. The lack of sound practical security metrics is severely hampering progress in the development of secure systems. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) offers the following advantages over traditional measurement systems: (1) CSES reflects the variances that exist amongst different stakeholders of the same system. Different stakeholders will typically attach different stakes to the same requirement or service (e.g., a service may be provided by an information technology system or process control system, etc.). (2) For a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. The same stakeholder may attach different stakes to satisfying different requirements within the overall system specification. (3) For a given compound specification (e.g., combination(s) of commercial off the shelf software and/or hardware), CSES reflects the variance that may exist amongst the levels of verification and validation (i.e., certification) performed on components of the specification. The certification activity may produce higher levels of assurance across different components of the specification than others. Consequently, this paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs and the basic structural and mathematical underpinnings.

  5. The impacts of recent smoking control policies on individual smoking choice: the case of Japan

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Abstract This article comprehensively examines the impact of recent smoking control policies in Japan, increases in cigarette taxes and the enforcement of the Health Promotion Law, on individual smoking choice by using multi-year and nationwide individual survey data to overcome the analytical problems of previous Japanese studies. In the econometric analyses, I specify a simple binary choice model based on a random utility model to examine the effects of smoking control policies on individual smoking choice by employing the instrumental variable probit model to control for the endogeneity of cigarette prices. The empirical results show that an increase in cigarette prices statistically significantly reduces the smoking probability of males by 1.0 percent and that of females by 1.4 to 2.0 percent. The enforcement of the Health Promotion Law has a statistically significant effect on reducing the smoking probability of males by 15.2 percent and of females by 11.9 percent. Furthermore, an increase in cigarette prices has a statistically significant negative effect on the smoking probability of office workers, non-workers, male manual workers, and female unemployed people, and the enforcement of the Health Promotion Law has a statistically significant effect on decreasing the smoking probabilities of office workers, female manual workers, and male non-workers. JEL classification C25, C26, I18 PMID:23497490

  6. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on heat rates for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W. ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights the heat rate results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. In the study, techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effects of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects on heat rate vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. For subcritical units, heat rates increase at a decreasing rate as the unit gets older. The increase became greater as the psi of the unit went down. For supercritical units, heat rates initially improve (i.e., go down), although at a decreasing rate, until age 14. After age 14, heat rates start to increase, at an increasing rate, finally reaching their startling levels by age 20. By age 26, heat rates have increased over starting values by 529 Btu/kWh. 2 refs., 2 figs.

  7. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) and EAF (equivalent availability factor) for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.; South, D.W.; Stokes, H.H.

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights results from phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. Techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. In the first 28 years of operation, it was determined that EFOR deteriorates by 8--9 percentage points due to age, without life extension/plant betterment programs. Improvement in EFOR after age 28 is attributable to a shift in duty cycle (baseload to cycling). The results of EAF with respect to age are similar to those found for EFOR. After an initial improvement, EAF deteriorates by 5--15 percentage points by age 18, depending on steam pressure. 2 figs., 1 tab.

  8. Estimating the effect of generating unit age on EFOR (equivalent forced outage rate) and EAF (equivalent availability factor) for coal-fired steam units operating between 1964 and 1981

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R. ); South, D.W ); Stokes, H.H. . Dept. of Economics)

    1990-01-01

    This paper highlights results from Phase 1 of a study conducted for the US Department of Energy, wherein we estimated the effect of age on various performance indices associated with the US population of coal-fired steam generating units. Techno-economic relationships between age and (1) equivalent forced outage rate (EFOR), (2) equivalent availability factor (EAF), and (3) heat rate were estimated with time series, cross-sectional econometric models for the period 1964--1981. The effect of age on EFOR and EAF were found to be significant. Although the effects vary by the operating and design characteristics of the unit, some general patterns can be seen. In the first 28 years of operation, it was determined that EFOR deteriorates by 8--9% points due to age, without life extension/plant betterment programs. Improvement in EFOR after age 28 is attributable to a shift in duty cycle (baseload to cycling). The results of EAF with respect to age are similar to those found for EFOR. After an initial improvement, EAF deteriorates by 5--15% points by age 18, depending on steam pressure. 1 ref., 2 figs., 1 tab.

  9. The effect of generating unit age on the cost and performance of US fossil-fired steam units

    SciTech Connect

    Corio, M.R.; Stokes, H.H.; South, D.W.

    1990-01-01

    The purpose of Phase 1 of this study is to quantify the effect of age on the performance of coal-fired units in the absence of life extension/betterment programs (i.e., beyond normal maintenance). Time-series cross-sectional unit-level data for the period 1964--1987 were used to estimate regressions relating the effect of age on equivalent forced-outage rate (EFOR), equivalent availability forced (EAF), and heat rate (HR). A sample of electric generating units representing about two-thirds of total US coal capacity in 1987 provided the basis for the regressions. The sample included roughly 570 subcritical units accounting for 5600 unit-years and 150 gigawatts (GW) and 100 supercritical units accounting for 1000 unit-years and 70 GW. An important feature of the study was to develop one model for both subcritical and supercritical units to control for various operating and design characteristics, and to profile the aging pattern of these units. The econometric models developed controlled for the effects of: age, capacity, design vintage or generation of design, boiler and furnace design, rest-of-plant design, coal quality, duty cycle, and life extension and plant betterment investments. The impact of life extension and plant betterment investments on the aging effect was controlled by identifying when their effect on operations and maintenance expenditures increased and by terminating the time-series analysis in that year. 6 refs., 8 figs., 12 tabs.

  10. Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project. [Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Winston, M. M.; Conner, D. W.

    1980-01-01

    An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

  11. Residential Electricity Demand in China -- Can Efficiency Reverse the Growth?

    SciTech Connect

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.; Zhou, Nan

    2009-05-18

    The time when energy-related carbon emissions come overwhelmingly from developed countries is coming to a close. China has already overtaken the United States as the world's leading emitter of greenhouse gas emissions. The economic growth that China has experienced is not expected to slow down significantly in the long term, which implies continued massive growth in energy demand. This paper draws on the extensive expertise from the China Energy Group at LBNL on forecasting energy consumption in China, but adds to it by exploring the dynamics of demand growth for electricity in the residential sector -- and the realistic potential for coping with it through efficiency. This paper forecasts ownership growth of each product using econometric modeling, in combination with historical trends in China. The products considered (refrigerators, air conditioners, fans, washing machines, lighting, standby power, space heaters, and water heating) account for 90percent of household electricity consumption in China. Using this method, we determine the trend and dynamics of demandgrowth and its dependence on macroeconomic drivers at a level of detail not accessible by models of a more aggregate nature. In addition, we present scenarios for reducing residential consumption through efficiency measures defined at the product level. The research takes advantage of an analytical framework developed by LBNL (BUENAS) which integrates end use technology parameters into demand forecasting and stock accounting to produce detailed efficiency scenarios, thus allowing for a technologically realistic assessment of efficiency opportunities specifically in the Chinese context.

  12. Interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms exploring the Titanic and Lusitania disasters.

    PubMed

    Frey, Bruno S; Savage, David A; Torgler, Benno

    2010-03-16

    To understand human behavior, it is important to know under what conditions people deviate from selfish rationality. This study explores the interaction of natural survival instincts and internalized social norms using data on the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. We show that time pressure appears to be crucial when explaining behavior under extreme conditions of life and death. Even though the two vessels and the composition of their passengers were quite similar, the behavior of the individuals on board was dramatically different. On the Lusitania, selfish behavior dominated (which corresponds to the classical homo economicus); on the Titanic, social norms and social status (class) dominated, which contradicts standard economics. This difference could be attributed to the fact that the Lusitania sank in 18 min, creating a situation in which the short-run flight impulse dominated behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic (2 h, 40 min), there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to reemerge. Maritime disasters are traditionally not analyzed in a comparative manner with advanced statistical (econometric) techniques using individual data of the passengers and crew. Knowing human behavior under extreme conditions provides insight into how widely human behavior can vary, depending on differing external conditions. PMID:20194743

  13. The carbohydrate-fat problem: can we construct a healthy diet based on dietary guidelines?

    PubMed

    Drewnowski, Adam

    2015-05-01

    The inclusion of nutrition economics in dietary guidance would help ensure that the Dietary Guidelines for Americans benefit equally all segments of the US population. The present review outlines some novel metrics of food affordability that assess nutrient density of foods and beverages in relation to cost. Socioeconomic disparities in diet quality in the United States are readily apparent. In general, groups of lower socioeconomic status consume cheaper, lower-quality diets and suffer from higher rates of noncommunicable diseases. Nutrient profiling models, initially developed to assess the nutrient density of foods, can be turned into econometric models that assess both calories and nutrients per reference amount and per unit cost. These novel metrics have been used to identify individual foods that were affordable, palatable, culturally acceptable, and nutrient rich. Not all nutrient-rich foods were expensive. In dietary surveys, both local and national, some high-quality diets were associated with relatively low cost. Those population subgroups that successfully adopted dietary guidelines at an unexpectedly low monetary cost were identified as "positive deviants." Constructing a healthy diet based on dietary guidelines can be done, provided that nutrient density of foods, their affordability, as well as taste and social norms are all taken into account. PMID:25979505

  14. Hybrid support vector regression and autoregressive integrated moving average models improved by particle swarm optimization for property crime rates forecasting with economic indicators.

    PubMed

    Alwee, Razana; Shamsuddin, Siti Mariyam Hj; Sallehuddin, Roselina

    2013-01-01

    Crimes forecasting is an important area in the field of criminology. Linear models, such as regression and econometric models, are commonly applied in crime forecasting. However, in real crimes data, it is common that the data consists of both linear and nonlinear components. A single model may not be sufficient to identify all the characteristics of the data. The purpose of this study is to introduce a hybrid model that combines support vector regression (SVR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) to be applied in crime rates forecasting. SVR is very robust with small training data and high-dimensional problem. Meanwhile, ARIMA has the ability to model several types of time series. However, the accuracy of the SVR model depends on values of its parameters, while ARIMA is not robust to be applied to small data sets. Therefore, to overcome this problem, particle swarm optimization is used to estimate the parameters of the SVR and ARIMA models. The proposed hybrid model is used to forecast the property crime rates of the United State based on economic indicators. The experimental results show that the proposed hybrid model is able to produce more accurate forecasting results as compared to the individual models. PMID:23766729

  15. Japan's Residential Energy Demand Outlook to 2030 Considering Energy Efficiency Standards"Top-Runner Approach"

    SciTech Connect

    Lacommare, Kristina S H; Komiyama, Ryoichi; Marnay, Chris

    2008-05-15

    As one of the measures to achieve the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions agreed to in the"Kyoto Protocol," an institutional scheme for determining energy efficiency standards for energy-consuming appliances, called the"Top-Runner Approach," was developed by the Japanese government. Its goal is to strengthen the legal underpinnings of various energy conservation measures. Particularly in Japan's residential sector, where energy demand has grown vigorously so far, this efficiency standard is expected to play a key role in mitigating both energy demand growth and the associated CO2 emissions. This paper presents an outlook of Japan's residential energy demand, developed by a stochastic econometric model for the purpose of analyzing the impacts of the Japan's energy efficiency standards, as well as the future stochastic behavior of income growth, demography, energy prices, and climate on the future energy demand growth to 2030. In this analysis, we attempt to explicitly take into consideration more than 30 kinds of electricity uses, heating, cooling and hot water appliances in order to comprehensively capture the progress of energy efficiency in residential energy end-use equipment. Since electricity demand, is projected to exhibit astonishing growth in Japan's residential sector due to universal increasing ownership of electric and other appliances, it is important to implement an elaborate efficiency standards policy for these appliances.

  16. NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF MULTIVARIATE CONVEX-TRANSFORMED DENSITIES

    PubMed Central

    Seregin, Arseni; Wellner, Jon A.

    2011-01-01

    We study estimation of multivariate densities p of the form p(x) = h(g(x)) for x ? ?d and for a fixed monotone function h and an unknown convex function g. The canonical example is h(y) = e?y for y ? ?; in this case, the resulting class of densities P(e?y)={p=exp(?g):gis convex}is well known as the class of log-concave densities. Other functions h allow for classes of densities with heavier tails than the log-concave class. We first investigate when the maximum likelihood estimator p? exists for the class P(h) for various choices of monotone transformations h, including decreasing and increasing functions h. The resulting models for increasing transformations h extend the classes of log-convex densities studied previously in the econometrics literature, corresponding to h(y) = exp(y). We then establish consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator for fairly general functions h, including the log-concave class P(e?y) and many others. In a final section, we provide asymptotic minimax lower bounds for the estimation of p and its vector of derivatives at a fixed point x0 under natural smoothness hypotheses on h and g. The proofs rely heavily on results from convex analysis. PMID:21423877

  17. State policy change: Revenue decoupling in the electricity market

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McNeil, Kytson L.

    The study seeks to answer the question, why are states adopting revenue decoupling in the electricity market, by investigating the relationship between policy adoption and attributes of the electricity market, the structure of the state utility commissions, and the political climate of the state. The study examines the period 1978-2008. Two econometric models, the marginal risk set model and the conditional risk set model, are estimated to predict the influence of covariates on the probability of the state adopting revenue decoupling in the electricity market. The models are both variants of the Cox proportional hazard model and use different underlying assumptions about the nature of adoption of revenue decoupling and when the states are considered to be at risk of adoption. Results suggest that market attributes, such as the source of electricity generation in the state, state energy intensity, and the distribution of non-public and public utilities, significantly influence the adoption of the policy. Also, the method of selecting commissioners and the party affiliation of elected officials in the state are important factors. The study concludes by suggestions to improve the implementation and evaluation of revenue decoupling in the electricity markets.

  18. Water scarcity, market-based incentives, and consumer response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krause, K.; Chermak, J. M.; Brookshire, D. S.

    2003-04-01

    Water is an increasingly scarce resource and the future viability of many regions will depend in large part on how efficiently resources are utilized. A key factor to this success will be a thorough understanding of consumers and the characteristics that drive their water use. In this research test and find support for the hypothesis that residential water consumers are heterogeneous. We combine experimental and survey responses to test for statistically significant consumer characteristics that are observable factors of demand for water. Significant factors include "stage of life" (i.e., student versus workforce versus retired), as well as various social and cultural factors including age, ethnicity, political affiliation and religious affiliation. Identification of these characteristics allows us to econometrically estimate disaggregated water demand for a sample of urban water consumers in Albuquerque, New Mexico, USA. The results provide unique parameter estimates for different consumer types. Using these results we design an incentive compatible, non-linear pricing program that allows individual consumers to choose a fixed fee/commodity charge from a menu that not only allows the individual to maximize his or her utility, while meeting the conservation goals of the program. We show that this program, with the attention to consumer differences is more efficient than the traditional "one size fits all" programs commonly employed by many water utilities.

  19. Environmental trade-offs of tunnels vs cut-and-cover subways

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walton, M.

    1978-01-01

    Heavy construction projects in cities entail two kinds of cost - internal cost, which can be defined in terms of payments from one set of parties to another, and external cost, which is the cost borne by the community at large as the result of disutilities entailed in construction and operation. Environmental trade-offs involve external costs, which are commonly difficult to measure. Cut-and-cover subway construction probably entails higher external and internal cost than deep tunnel construction in many urban geological environments, but uncertainty concerning the costs and environmental trade-offs of tunneling leads to limited and timid use of tunneling by American designers. Thus uncertainty becomes a major trade-off which works against tunneling. The reverse is true in Sweden after nearly 30 years of subway construction. Econometric methods for measuring external costs exist in principle, but are limited in application. Economic theory based on market pressure does not address the real problem of urban environmental trade-offs. Nevertheless, the problem of uncertainty can be addressed by comparative studies of estimated and as-built costs of cut-and-cover vs tunnel projects and a review of environmental issues associated with such construction. Such a study would benefit the underground construction industry and the design of transportation systems. It would also help solve an aspect of the urban problem. ?? 1978.

  20. Termination Report

    SciTech Connect

    Bruce McCarl and Dhazngilly

    2004-01-07

    The results of this project include: (1) Development of econometrically estimated marginal abatement and associated production curves describing response of agricultural and forestry emissions/sink/offsets enhancements for use in integrated assessments. Curves were developed that reflected agricultural, and forestry production of traditional commodities, carbon and other greenhouse gas offsets and biofuels given signals of general commodity demand, and carbon and energy prices. (2) Integration of the non-dynamic curves from (1) into a version of the PNNL SGM integrated assessment model was done in cooperation with Dr. Ronald Sands at PNNL. The results were reported at the second DOE conference on sequestration in the paper listed and the abstract is in Annex B of this report. (3) Alternative agricultural sequestration estimates were developed in conjunction with personnel at Colorado State University using CENTURY and analyses can operate under the use of agricultural soil carbon data from either the EPIC or CENTURY models. (4) A major effort was devoted to understanding the possible role and applicable actions from agriculture. (5) Work was done with EPA and EIA to update the biofuel data and assumptions resulting in some now emerging results showing the criticality of biofuel assumptions.

  1. Two Different Points of View through Artificial Intelligence and Vector Autoregressive Models for Ex Post and Ex Ante Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Aydin, Alev Dilek; Caliskan Cavdar, Seyma

    2015-01-01

    The ANN method has been applied by means of multilayered feedforward neural networks (MLFNs) by using different macroeconomic variables such as the exchange rate of USD/TRY, gold prices, and the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) 100 index based on monthly data over the period of January 2000 and September 2014 for Turkey. Vector autoregressive (VAR) method has also been applied with the same variables for the same period of time. In this study, different from other studies conducted up to the present, ENCOG machine learning framework has been used along with JAVA programming language in order to constitute the ANN. The training of network has been done by resilient propagation method. The ex post and ex ante estimates obtained by the ANN method have been compared with the results obtained by the econometric forecasting method of VAR. Strikingly, our findings based on the ANN method reveal that there is a possibility of financial distress or a financial crisis in Turkey starting from October 2017. The results which were obtained with the method of VAR also support the results of ANN method. Additionally, our results indicate that the ANN approach has more superior prediction performance than the VAR method. PMID:26550010

  2. Assessing the impacts of regional characteristics on the location of manufacturing facilities: A review of recent methods and findings

    SciTech Connect

    Calzonetti, F.J. . Dept. of Geology and Geography); Hemphill, R.C. . Environmental Assessment and Information Sciences Div.)

    1992-01-01

    This report gives federal agencies background information to help them assess the impacts that siting a nuclear-waste storage facility could have on industries making location decisions in various regions of influence. It reviews two major research methods used to analyze reasons for location choices: economic-based or econometric methods and survey-based factor-ranking methods. It summarizes the results of studies that have used these methods, identifying and ranking factors shown to be important to industries making location decisions throughout the nation and in western states. Neither economic-based nor survey-based studies have shown the public's perceptions of a region to be an important determinant in the selection of new manufacturing sites, although consideration of the level of amenities is gaining importance in the West. In general, available studies are inconclusive with respect to the extent to which perceptions about hazards play a role in the location of manufacturing facilities in any region of the nation.

  3. Assessing the impacts of regional characteristics on the location of manufacturing facilities: A review of recent methods and findings

    SciTech Connect

    Calzonetti, F.J.; Hemphill, R.C.

    1992-01-01

    This report gives federal agencies background information to help them assess the impacts that siting a nuclear-waste storage facility could have on industries making location decisions in various regions of influence. It reviews two major research methods used to analyze reasons for location choices: economic-based or econometric methods and survey-based factor-ranking methods. It summarizes the results of studies that have used these methods, identifying and ranking factors shown to be important to industries making location decisions throughout the nation and in western states. Neither economic-based nor survey-based studies have shown the public`s perceptions of a region to be an important determinant in the selection of new manufacturing sites, although consideration of the level of amenities is gaining importance in the West. In general, available studies are inconclusive with respect to the extent to which perceptions about hazards play a role in the location of manufacturing facilities in any region of the nation.

  4. Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity, substitutability, and other channels of influence.

    PubMed

    Greenwood, M J; Hunt, G L

    1995-04-01

    The authors use Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data constructed from 1980 census microdata files and other sources to estimate a structural model of native/foreign-born labor demand and labor supply which distinguishes the effects upon real wages of each type of labor and on the employment of natives. The authors specify, econometrically estimate, and simulate the structural model which incorporates not only a production structure channel through which immigrants influence area real wages and employment, but also demand and native labor supply channels. It is noted that while these are not the only channels through which immigrants may affect native workers, the model nonetheless constitutes a step in the direction of a general equilibrium approach. In the production structure channel, immigrants and natives are found to be substitutes in production. Immigration lowers foreign-born wage rates and leads to lower wages for natives. The negative effects of the production channel usually are ameliorated through the demand channel. Further, immigrants add to local demand through their earnings and potentially through non-labor income, while also lowering unit costs and local prices which enhances real incomes and potentially net exports, and thus the demands for local output and area labor. The author discusses findings of interest from the simulation results based upon an analysis of all areas. PMID:12346954

  5. Alerts of forest disturbance from MODIS imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hammer, Dan; Kraft, Robin; Wheeler, David

    2014-12-01

    This paper reports the methodology and computational strategy for a forest cover disturbance alerting system. Analytical techniques from time series econometrics are applied to imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor to detect temporal instability in vegetation indices. The characteristics from each MODIS pixel's spectral history are extracted and compared against historical data on forest cover loss to develop a geographically localized classification rule that can be applied across the humid tropical biome. The final output is a probability of forest disturbance for each 500 m pixel that is updated every 16 days. The primary objective is to provide high-confidence alerts of forest disturbance, while minimizing false positives. We find that the alerts serve this purpose exceedingly well in Pará, Brazil, with high probability alerts garnering a user accuracy of 98 percent over the training period and 93 percent after the training period (2000-2005) when compared against the PRODES deforestation data set, which is used to assess spatial accuracy. Implemented in Clojure and Java on the Hadoop distributed data processing platform, the algorithm is a fast, automated, and open source system for detecting forest disturbance. It is intended to be used in conjunction with higher-resolution imagery and data products that cannot be updated as quickly as MODIS-based data products. By highlighting hotspots of change, the algorithm and associated output can focus high-resolution data acquisition and aid in efforts to enforce local forest conservation efforts.

  6. Change in agricultural land use constrains adaptation of national wildlife refuges to climate change

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hamilton, Christopher M.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Radeloff, Volker C.; Plantinga, Andrew J.; Heglund, Patricia J.; Martinuzzi, Sebastian; Pidgeon, Anna M.

    2015-01-01

    Land-use change around protected areas limits their ability to conserve biodiversity by altering ecological processes such as natural hydrologic and disturbance regimes, facilitating species invasions, and interfering with dispersal of organisms. This paper informs USA National Wildlife Refuge System conservation planning by predicting future land-use change on lands within 25 km distance of 461 refuges in the USA using an econometric model. The model contained two differing policy scenarios, namely a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario and a ‘pro-agriculture’ scenario. Regardless of scenario, by 2051, forest cover and urban land use were predicted to increase around refuges, while the extent of range and pasture was predicted to decrease; cropland use decreased under the business-as-usual scenario, but increased under the pro-agriculture scenario. Increasing agricultural land value under the pro-agriculture scenario slowed an expected increase in forest around refuges, and doubled the rate of range and pasture loss. Intensity of land-use change on lands surrounding refuges differed by regions. Regional differences among scenarios revealed that an understanding of regional and local land-use dynamics and management options was an essential requirement to effectively manage these conserved lands. Such knowledge is particularly important given the predicted need to adapt to a changing global climate.

  7. Assessing the benefits of OHER (Office of Health and Environmental Research) research: Three case studies

    SciTech Connect

    Nesse, R.J.; Callaway, J.M.; Englin, J.E.; Klan, M.S.; Nicholls, A.K.; Serot, D.E.

    1987-09-01

    This research was undertaken to estimate the societal benefits and costs of selected past research performed for the Office of Health and Environmental Research (OHER) of the US Department of Energy (DOE). Three case studies of representative OHER and DOE research were performed. One of these, the acid rain case study, includes research conducted elsewhere in DOE. The other two cases were the OHER marine research program and the development of high-purity germanium that is used in radiation detectors. The acid rain case study looked at the research benefits and costs of furnace sorbent injection and duct injection, technologies that might reduce acid deposition precursors. Both appear to show benefits in excess of costs. We examined in detail one of the OHER marine research program's accomplishments - the increase in environmental information used by the Outer Continental Shelf leasing program to manage bidding for off-shore oil drilling. The results of an econometric model show that environmental information of the type supported by OHER is unequivocally linked to government and industry leasing decisions. The germanium case study indicated that the benefits of germanium radiation detectors were significant.

  8. An empirical study on the driving mechanism of proactive corporate environmental management in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Xianbing; Liu, Beibei; Shishime, Tomohiro; Yu, Qinqin; Bi, Jun; Fujitsuka, Tetsuro

    2010-08-01

    Environmentalism in China is under transformation from the traditional command and control model to emphasize the advantages of economic tools and encourage the participation of the public. Firms are much more aware of the importance of environmental issues, and some of them have practiced environmental activities beyond compliance. In order to help understand the driving mechanism of proactive corporate environmental behaviors from the firm's perspective, this paper identifies the drivers affecting the proactive environmental management level (EML(p)) based on the institutional theory, and gives an empirical study on the firms based in Changshu city of Jiangsu Province, China. The usable data, collected from the 117 valid respondents in a questionnaire survey, indicates that EML(p) is still moderately low currently. Less than 10% of the samples are practicing all the six categorized types of voluntary environmental activities. The econometric exercise confirms a significantly positive effect of the externally mimetic pressure on EML(p), which may attribute to a higher sensitivity of Chinese companies to the market factors. However, the roles of the general public and industrial associations are not significant, showing the marginal power of selected normative pressures. Regarding internal factors, firms, which view environmental issues as opportunities and often arrange internal environmental training, are more likely to adopt proactive environmental activities. More concerns from the general public like neighborhood communities and mass media shall be addressed to enhance the normative power to improve EML(p) in China from the future perspective. PMID:20399552

  9. Club convergence of house prices: Evidence from China’s ten key cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meng, Hao; Xie, Wen-Jie; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-09-01

    The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a marked fall during the global financial tsunami and China’s economy has also slowed down by about 2%-3% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than 10 years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here, we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing 10 representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The 10 key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices among different cities.

  10. An analysis of long and medium-haul air passenger demand, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eriksen, S. E.

    1978-01-01

    A basic model was developed which is a two equation pair econometric system in which air passenger demand and airline level-of-service are the endogenous variables. The model aims to identify the relationship between each of these two variables and its determining factors, and to identify the interaction of demand and level-of-service with each other. The selected variable for the measure of air passenger traffic activity in a given pair market is defined as the number of passengers in a given time that originate in one region and fly to the other region for purposes other than to make a connection to a third region. For medium and long haul markets, the model seems to perform better for larger markets. This is due to a specification problem regarding the route structure variable. In larger markets, a greater percentage of nonlocal passengers are accounted for by this variable. Comparing the estimated fare elasticities of long and medium haul markets, it appears that air transportation demand is more price elastic in longer haul markets. Long haul markets demand will saturate with a fewer number of departures than will demand in medium haul markets.

  11. What are the policy lessons of National Alcohol Prohibition in the United States, 1920-1933?

    PubMed

    Hall, Wayne

    2010-07-01

    National alcohol prohibition in the United States between 1920 and 1933 is believed widely to have been a misguided and failed social experiment that made alcohol problems worse by encouraging drinkers to switch to spirits and created a large black market for alcohol supplied by organized crime. The standard view of alcohol prohibition provides policy lessons that are invoked routinely in policy debates about alcohol and other drugs. The alcohol industry invokes it routinely when resisting proposals to reduce the availability of alcohol, increase its price or regulate alcohol advertising and promotion. Advocates of cannabis law reform invoke it frequently in support of their cause. This paper aims: (i) to provide an account of alcohol prohibition that is more accurate than the standard account because it is informed by historical and econometric analyses; (ii) to describe the policy debates in the 1920s and 1930s about the effectiveness of national prohibition; and (iii) to reflect on any relevance that the US experience with alcohol prohibition has for contemporary policies towards alcohol. It is incorrect to claim that the US experience of National Prohibition indicates that prohibition as a means of regulating alcohol is always doomed to failure. Subsequent experience shows that partial prohibitions can produce substantial public health benefits at an acceptable social cost, in the absence of substantial enforcement. PMID:20331549

  12. R and D Evaluation Workshop report, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Research, September 7--8, 1995

    SciTech Connect

    Jordan, G.

    1995-10-30

    The objective of the workshop was to promote discussions between experts and research managers on developing approaches for assessing the impact of DOE`s basic energy research upon the energy mission, applied research, technology transfer, the economy, and society. The purpose of this impact assessment is to demonstrate results and improve ER research programs in this era when basic research is expected to meet changing national economic and social goals. The questions addressed were: (1) By what criteria and metrics does Energy Research measure performance and evaluate its impact on the DOE mission and society while maintaining an environment that fosters basic research? (2) What combination of evaluation methods best applies to assessing the performance and impact of OBES basic research? The focus will be upon the following methods: Case studies, User surveys, Citation analysis, TRACES approach, Return on DOE investment (ROI)/Econometrics, and Expert panels. (3) What combination of methods and specific rules of thumb can be applied to capture impacts along the spectrum from basic research to products and societal impacts?

  13. Characteristics of the transmission of autoregressive sub-patterns in financial time series

    PubMed Central

    Gao, Xiangyun; An, Haizhong; Fang, Wei; Huang, Xuan; Li, Huajiao; Zhong, Weiqiong

    2014-01-01

    There are many types of autoregressive patterns in financial time series, and they form a transmission process. Here, we define autoregressive patterns quantitatively through an econometrical regression model. We present a computational algorithm that sets the autoregressive patterns as nodes and transmissions between patterns as edges, and then converts the transmission process of autoregressive patterns in a time series into a network. We utilised daily Shanghai (securities) composite index time series to study the transmission characteristics of autoregressive patterns. We found statistically significant evidence that the financial market is not random and that there are similar characteristics between parts and whole time series. A few types of autoregressive sub-patterns and transmission patterns drive the oscillations of the financial market. A clustering effect on fluctuations appears in the transmission process, and certain non-major autoregressive sub-patterns have high media capabilities in the financial time series. Different stock indexes exhibit similar characteristics in the transmission of fluctuation information. This work not only proposes a distinctive perspective for analysing financial time series but also provides important information for investors. PMID:25189200

  14. Essays in applied microeconomics: measuring the multilateral allocation of rent and dual tests of market power

    SciTech Connect

    Kerkvliet, J.

    1986-01-01

    The first essay develops a general econometric procedure for the join estimation of rents in a bilateral monopoly/oligopoly market for an intermediate good. This procedure is utilized to measure the rent-gathering success of firms involved in the extraction, transportation, and consumption of Wyoming coal. Statistical results indicate that railroads and coal producers capture 23% of potential rent, while taxing authorities and utilities capture 7 and 47%, respectively. Further statistical tests indicate that rents have shifted towards railroads since their deregulation in 1980 and that railroads and coal producers engage in price discrimination. The second essay estimates the extent to which regulated electric utilities are inefficient in the use of base-load fossil fuels. Utilities are assumed to be shadow profit maximizers acting as if they face shadow prices which may diverge from observed prices because of monopoly power in output markets, monopsony power in input markets, or distortions induced by fuel-adjustment-clause rate making. Supply, demand, and actual profit equations are derived from a behavioral profit function, and the model is estimated for a sample of utilities using Wyoming and Montana coal. Results indicate that this group of utilities uses fuel inefficiently.

  15. Socioeconomic determinants of outpatient antibiotic use in Europe

    PubMed Central

    Filippini, Massimo; Ferech, Matus; Goossens, Herman

    2010-01-01

    Objectives Outpatient antibiotic consumption widely varies across Europe. The investigation of the causes of such variation may help to identify interventions that would improve the efficient use of antibiotics. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of socioeconomic determinants and the role played by information about bacterial resistance. Methods Comparable data on systemically administered antibiotics and socioeconomic determinants in 17 European countries were available between 2000 and 2005. We estimated an ad hoc econometric model by means of a hybrid log–log functional form and random effects generalised least squares regressions. Lagged values and the instrumental variable method were applied to address endogeneity of bacterial resistance and infections. Bacterial resistance was measured by the rate of penicillin non-susceptible Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates (PNSP) and methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA). Results The population income, demographic structure, density of general practitioners and their remuneration method appeared to be significant determinants of antibiotic consumption. Although countries with higher levels of bacterial resistance exhibited significantly higher levels of per capita antibiotic use, ceteris paribus, the responsiveness of antibiotic use to changes in bacterial resistance was relatively low (0.09–0.18). Conclusions The study confirms that socioeconomic factors should be taken into account while explaining differences in outpatient antibiotic use across countries. The impact of supply-side factors and incentives attached to payment schemes for physicians need to be considered in government interventions to reduce inequalities and improve effectiveness in antibiotic utilisation. PMID:20603713

  16. Relationship between recycling rate and air pollution: Waste management in the state of Massachusetts.

    PubMed

    Giovanis, Eleftherios

    2015-06-01

    This study examines the relationship between recycling rate of solid waste and air pollution using data from a waste municipality survey in the state of Massachusetts during the period 2009-2012. Two econometric approaches are applied. The first approach is a fixed effects model, while the second is a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with fixed effects model. The advantage of the first approach is the ability of controlling for stable time invariant characteristics of the municipalities, thereby eliminating potentially large sources of bias. The second approach is applied in order to estimate the technical efficiency and rank of each municipality accordingly. The regressions control for various demographic, economic and recycling services, such as income per capita, population density, unemployment, trash services, Pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) program and meteorological data. The findings support that a negative relationship between particulate particles in the air 2.5 ?m or less in size (PM2.5) and recycling rate is presented. In addition, the pollution is increased with increases on income per capita up to $23,000-$26,000, while after this point income contributes positively on air quality. Finally, based on the efficiency derived by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model, the municipalities which provide both drop off and curbside services for trash, food and yard waste and the PAYT program present better performance regarding the air quality. PMID:25827258

  17. With string model to time series forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pin?ák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

    2015-10-01

    Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant date but rather on the aggregate date, which is also not a real financial case. In this paper, we would like to show a new way how to analyze and, moreover, forecast financial market. We utilize the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology in the OANDA market. The latter approach allows us to build the stable prediction models in trading in the financial forex market. The real application of the multi-string structures is provided to demonstrate our ideas for the solution of the problem of the robust portfolio selection. The comparison with the trend following strategies was performed, the stability of the algorithm on the transaction costs for long trade periods was confirmed.

  18. Political economy of the US oil industry

    SciTech Connect

    Isser, S.N.

    1989-01-01

    The political struggles over oil policy in the 1950s were contests between narrow economic interest groups to collect economic rents, as would be expected if government is considered to be just another forum for rent seeking behavior, with government intervention accepted as a norm. Conversely, the attempt to obtain decontrol of natural gas production during this period, during which consumer interests and pro-market ideology were important factors, presaged the oil politics of the 1970s. The significant impact of consumer interests on oil policy contradicts the expectations of public choice theorists that consumers will be disadvantaged in contests with well organized and wealthy interest groups. The ability of latent interest groups to influence policy when represented by politicians and private actors acting as political entrepreneurs was demonstrated during the 1970s as they dominated oil politics. Substantial economic rents, generated by the OPEC price increases, were transferred to consumers and refiners, while tax break were eliminated despite the economic resources available to producers. The pattern of distribution of those economic rents, as well as various tax breaks and exemptions from controls, was skewed toward small producers and refiners, reflecting a traditional ideological prejudice against big business. Econometric analysis revealed that ideology, party and oil production by constituents were the most important influences on congressional voting.

  19. Material World: Forecasting Household Appliance Ownership in a Growing Global Economy

    SciTech Connect

    Letschert, Virginie; McNeil, Michael A.

    2009-03-23

    Over the past years the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed an econometric model that predicts appliance ownership at the household level based on macroeconomic variables such as household income (corrected for purchase power parity), electrification, urbanization and climate variables. Hundreds of data points from around the world were collected in order to understand trends in acquisition of new appliances by households, especially in developing countries. The appliances covered by this model are refrigerators, lighting fixtures, air conditioners, washing machines and televisions. The approach followed allows the modeler to construct a bottom-up analysis based at the end use and the household level. It captures the appliance uptake and the saturation effect which will affect the energy demand growth in the residential sector. With this approach, the modeler can also account for stock changes in technology and efficiency as a function of time. This serves two important functions with regard to evaluation of the impact of energy efficiency policies. First, it provides insight into which end uses will be responsible for the largest share of demand growth, and therefore should be policy priorities. Second, it provides a characterization of the rate at which policies affecting new equipment penetrate the appliance stock. Over the past 3 years, this method has been used to support the development of energy demand forecasts at the country, region or global level.

  20. Spatiotemporal Characteristics, Determinants and Scenario Analysis of CO2 Emissions in China Using Provincial Panel Data

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shaojian

    2015-01-01

    This paper empirically investigated the spatiotemporal variations, influencing factors and future emission trends of China’s CO2 emissions based on a provincial panel data set. A series of panel econometric models were used taking the period 1995–2011 into consideration. The results indicated that CO2 emissions in China increased over time, and were characterized by noticeable regional discrepancies; in addition, CO2 emissions also exhibited properties of spatial dependence and convergence. Factors such as population scale, economic level and urbanization level exerted a positive influence on CO2 emissions. Conversely, energy intensity was identified as having a negative influence on CO2 emissions. In addition, the significance of the relationship between CO2 emissions and the four variables varied across the provinces based on their scale of economic development. Scenario simulations further showed that the scenario of middle economic growth, middle population increase, low urbanization growth, and high technology improvement (here referred to as Scenario BTU), constitutes the best development model for China to realize the future sustainable development. Based on these empirical findings, we also provide a number of policy recommendations with respect to the future mitigation of CO2 emissions. PMID:26397373

  1. Impact of alcohol fuel production on agricultural markets

    SciTech Connect

    Gardiner, W.H.

    1986-01-01

    Production of alcohol from biomass feedstocks, such as corn, was given Federal and State support which resulted in alcohol production rising from 20 million gallons in 1979 to 430 million gallons in 1984. This study estimates the impacts of alcohol production from corn on selected agricultural markets. The tool of analysis was a three region (United States, the European Community and the rest of the world) econometric model of the markets for corn, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, wheat and corn byproduct feeds. Three alternative growth paths for alcohol production (totalling 1.1, 2.0, and 3.0 billion gallons) were analyzed with the model in the context of three different trade environments. The results of this analysis indicate that alcohol production of 1.1 billion gallons by 1980 would have caused moderate adjustments to commodity markets while 3.0 billion gallons would have caused major adjustments. Corn prices rose sharply with increased alcohol production as did wheat prices but to a somewhat lesser extent. The substitution of corn for soybeans on the supply side was not sufficient to offset the demand depressing effects of corn byproduct feeds on soybean meal which translated into slightly lower soybean prices. A quota limiting imports of corn gluten feed into the EC to three million tons annually would cause reductions in export earnings for corn millers.

  2. Using genetic algorithm to solve a new multi-period stochastic optimization model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xin-Li; Zhang, Ke-Cun

    2009-09-01

    This paper presents a new asset allocation model based on the CVaR risk measure and transaction costs. Institutional investors manage their strategic asset mix over time to achieve favorable returns subject to various uncertainties, policy and legal constraints, and other requirements. One may use a multi-period portfolio optimization model in order to determine an optimal asset mix. Recently, an alternative stochastic programming model with simulated paths was proposed by Hibiki [N. Hibiki, A hybrid simulation/tree multi-period stochastic programming model for optimal asset allocation, in: H. Takahashi, (Ed.) The Japanese Association of Financial Econometrics and Engineering, JAFFE Journal (2001) 89-119 (in Japanese); N. Hibiki A hybrid simulation/tree stochastic optimization model for dynamic asset allocation, in: B. Scherer (Ed.), Asset and Liability Management Tools: A Handbook for Best Practice, Risk Books, 2003, pp. 269-294], which was called a hybrid model. However, the transaction costs weren't considered in that paper. In this paper, we improve Hibiki's model in the following aspects: (1) The risk measure CVaR is introduced to control the wealth loss risk while maximizing the expected utility; (2) Typical market imperfections such as short sale constraints, proportional transaction costs are considered simultaneously. (3) Applying a genetic algorithm to solve the resulting model is discussed in detail. Numerical results show the suitability and feasibility of our methodology.

  3. Policy support, economic incentives and the adoption of irrigation technology in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cremades, R.; Wang, J.; Morris, J.

    2014-11-01

    The challenges China faces in terms of water availability in the agricultural sector are exacerbated by the sector's low irrigation efficiency. To increase irrigation efficiency, promoting irrigation technology has been emphasized by policy makers in China. The overall goal of this paper is to understand the effect of policy support and economic incentives on the adoption of irrigation technology in China. Based on a unique dataset collected at household and village levels from seven provinces in China, results indicated that household-based irrigation technology has become noticeable in almost every Chinese village. In contrast, only about half of Chinese villages have adopted community-based irrigation technology. Despite the relatively high adoption level of household-based irrigation technology at the village level, its actual adoption on crop-sown areas was not high, and it was even lower for community-based irrigation technology. The econometric analyses results revealed that policy supports via subsidies and extension services have played an important role in promoting the adoption of irrigation technology. Strikingly, the present irrigation pricing policy has played significant but contradictory roles in promoting the adoption of different types of irrigation technology. Irrigation pricing showed a positive impact on household-based irrigation technology, and a negative impact on community-based irrigation technology, possibly related to their substitution relationship, because having higher adoption of household-based irrigation technology reduce the incentives to invest in community-based irrigation technology. The paper finally concludes and discusses some policy implications.

  4. Youth are more sensitive to price changes in cigarettes than adults.

    PubMed Central

    Ding, Alexander

    2003-01-01

    Virtually all smoking begins in our population's youth and remains as a habit into those smokers' elder years. If we desire to halt smoking in its infancy, we should seek to deter and induce cessation in the youth years. It has been cited that taxation is an effective means to deter smoking at all ages, particularly efficacious in the youth population. This paper explores the merits of this method of preventative medicine, and intends to investigate differences between the price elasticity of cigarette demand between various cohorts, particularly the adult versus the youth population. We use a two-variable log-log, ordinary least-squares econometric regression to determine the extent that price alterations have on participation rates and quantity smoked. Our results show that youth are quite responsive to price increases showing a decrease of 14 percent prevalence in smoking for a 10 percent increase in price; whereas, the adult population is relatively less responsive to such price changes, exhibiting nearly a 2 percent decrease in prevalence for a 10 percent increase in price. We conclude that taxation is an effective means of socially-enacted preventative medicine in deterring youth smoking. PMID:15369626

  5. Assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three geopolitical zones in Nigeria: implications for renewable/sustainable rural electrification.

    PubMed

    Okeniyi, Joshua Olusegun; Ohunakin, Olayinka Soledayo; Okeniyi, Elizabeth Toyin

    2015-01-01

    Electricity generation in rural communities is an acute problem militating against socioeconomic well-being of the populace in these communities in developing countries, including Nigeria. In this paper, assessments of wind-energy potential in selected sites from three major geopolitical zones of Nigeria were investigated. For this, daily wind-speed data from Katsina in northern, Warri in southwestern and Calabar in southeastern Nigeria were analysed using the Gumbel and the Weibull probability distributions for assessing wind-energy potential as a renewable/sustainable solution for the country's rural-electrification problems. Results showed that the wind-speed models identified Katsina with higher wind-speed class than both Warri and Calabar that were otherwise identified as low wind-speed sites. However, econometrics of electricity power simulation at different hub heights of low wind-speed turbine systems showed that the cost of electric-power generation in the three study sites was converging to affordable cost per kWh of electric energy from the wind resource at each site. These power simulations identified cost/kWh of electricity generation at Kaduna as €0.0507, at Warri as €0.0774, and at Calabar as €0.0819. These bare positive implications on renewable/sustainable rural electrification in the study sites even as requisite options for promoting utilization of this viable wind-resource energy in the remote communities in the environs of the study sites were suggested. PMID:25879063

  6. Causality analysis in business performance measurement system using system dynamics methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yusof, Zainuridah; Yusoff, Wan Fadzilah Wan; Maarof, Faridah

    2014-07-01

    One of the main components of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) that differentiates it from any other performance measurement system (PMS) is the Strategy Map with its unidirectional causality feature. Despite its apparent popularity, criticisms on the causality have been rigorously discussed by earlier researchers. In seeking empirical evidence of causality, propositions based on the service profit chain theory were developed and tested using the econometrics analysis, Granger causality test on the 45 data points. However, the insufficiency of well-established causality models was found as only 40% of the causal linkages were supported by the data. Expert knowledge was suggested to be used in the situations of insufficiency of historical data. The Delphi method was selected and conducted in obtaining the consensus of the causality existence among the 15 selected expert persons by utilizing 3 rounds of questionnaires. Study revealed that only 20% of the propositions were not supported. The existences of bidirectional causality which demonstrate significant dynamic environmental complexity through interaction among measures were obtained from both methods. With that, a computer modeling and simulation using System Dynamics (SD) methodology was develop as an experimental platform to identify how policies impacting the business performance in such environments. The reproduction, sensitivity and extreme condition tests were conducted onto developed SD model to ensure their capability in mimic the reality, robustness and validity for causality analysis platform. This study applied a theoretical service management model within the BSC domain to a practical situation using SD methodology where very limited work has been done.

  7. Multidisciplinary modeling and GIS for landscape management

    SciTech Connect

    Flamm, R.O.; Turner, M.G.

    1993-12-31

    Ecological dynamics in human-influenced landscapes are strongly affected by the socioeconomic factors that influence land-use decisions. Incorporating these factors into a spatially-explicit landscape-change model requires the integration of multidisciplinary data. We developed a model that simulates the effects of land use on landscape structure in the Little Tennessee River Basin in western North Carolina. This model uses a variety of data, including interpreted remotely-sensed imagery, census and ownership maps, topography, and results from econometric models. Data are integrated by using a geographic information system and translated into a common format, maps. Simulations generate new maps of land cover representing the amount of land-cover change that occurs. With spatially-explicit projections of landscape change, issues such as biodiversity conservation, the importance of specific landscape elements to conservation goals, and long-term landscape integrity can be addressed. In order for management to use the model to address these issues, a computer-based landscape-management decision aid is being developed. This tool integrates the models, associated data bases, and a geographic information system to facilitate the evaluation of land-use decisions and management plans. This system will estimate landscape-level consequences of alternative actions and will serve to focus coordination among different land-owners and land-use interests in managing the regional landscape.

  8. Economic growth and the demand for dietary quality: Evidence from Russia during transition.

    PubMed

    Burggraf, Christine; Teuber, Ramona; Brosig, Stephan; Glauben, Thomas

    2015-12-01

    The increasing incidence of nutrition-related chronic diseases worldwide has raised people's awareness of dietary quality. Most existing studies on the topic of changing nutrition patterns measure dietary quality by single macronutrient indicators or anthropometric outcomes. However, such an approach is often too narrow to provide a picture of overall dietary quality and is sometimes even misleading. This study contributes to the existing literature by taking into account that the analysis of dietary quality comprises two dimensions: the adequate intake of vitamins and minerals, as well as the moderate intake of nutrients that increase the risk of chronic diseases. Thereby, we apply Grossman's health investment model to the analysis of the demand for dietary quality, explicitly addressing the different dimensions of dietary quality and the intertemporal character of health investments. We apply our approach to Russia using data from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey from 1996 to 2008. Our results show that intake levels of vitamins and minerals as well as saturated and total fatty acids increased after 1998 along with economic recovery, while the intake of fiber decreased. Our econometric results imply an income elasticity of vitamins and minerals of 0.051, and an income elasticity of fats of 0.073. Overall, our results are in line with an ongoing nutrition transition in the Russian Federation, which is marked by decreasing deficiencies in vitamins and minerals, as well as the increasing consumption of fats with its accompanying negative health consequences. PMID:26469973

  9. Dutch Disease model of a natural resource export boom: coal in Columbia

    SciTech Connect

    Seidelman, J.E.

    1987-01-01

    This dissertation examines the economic adjustments of a natural resource export boom in a developing country using a Dutch Disease approach. It surveys the existing literature on general-equilibrium Dutch Disease models. In addition, intermediate goods are introduced, and the changes this brings in Dutch Disease adjustment of an export boom are explored. The Colombian coffee and drug booms of the 1970s are analyzed using a Dutch Disease framework. Econometric estimations of several key Dutch Disease variables are conducted. Furthermore, Colombia's policy response to the coffee and drug booms is examined as a means to identify appropriate policy responses for developing countries in the event of an export boom. This study explicitly integrates many of the socio-economic characteristics and policy problems peculiar to developing countries with Dutch Disease analysis of a boom. This integration is extended by examining how a booming export such as Cerrejon coal may affect factor incomes and sectoral allocations in Colombia. Finally, Colombia's policy options are explored given the introduction of Colombia's newest booming export (Cerrejon Coal), along with some concluding thoughts about Dutch Disease adjustment, natural resource export booms and developing countries.

  10. What improves environmental compliance? Evidence from Mexican industry

    SciTech Connect

    Dasgupta, S.; Hettige, H.; Wheeler, D.

    2000-01-01

    This paper uses new survey evidence to analyze the effects of regulation, plant-level management policies, and other factors on the environmental compliance of Mexican manufacturers. In Mexico and other developing countries, many plants avoid complying with regulations because monitoring and enforcement are sporadic. On the other hand, some plants overcomply because their abatement decisions are strongly affected by extra legal factors. The authors attempt to capture both possibilities in a model of decision making under uncertainty: A plant minimizes expected pollution-related costs by setting emissions intensity (emissions/output) at the point where marginal abatement cost is equal to the expected marginal penalty for polluting. Compliance status is determined by the positive or negative gap between the regulatory standard and the plant's cost-minimizing emissions intensity. Among determinants of the latter, the authors focus particularly on environmental management policies: the degree of effort to reduce emissions, and the type of management strategy which is adopted. Recognizing that these policies and emissions are simultaneously determined, they use two-stage least squares for econometric estimation. Their results suggest that environmental management has a strong, independent effect on compliance, even after their control for simultaneity and take many other determinants of emissions intensity into account. The authors conclude that in developing countries with weak regulations, the carrot of subsidized environmental management training may provide a useful complement to the uncertain stick of conventional enforcement.

  11. Modified multidimensional scaling approach to analyze financial markets.

    PubMed

    Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    Detrended cross-correlation coefficient (?DCCA) and dynamic time warping (DTW) are introduced as the dissimilarity measures, respectively, while multidimensional scaling (MDS) is employed to translate the dissimilarities between daily price returns of 24 stock markets. We first propose MDS based on ?DCCA dissimilarity and MDS based on DTW dissimilarity creatively, while MDS based on Euclidean dissimilarity is also employed to provide a reference for comparisons. We apply these methods in order to further visualize the clustering between stock markets. Moreover, we decide to confront MDS with an alternative visualization method, "Unweighed Average" clustering method, for comparison. The MDS analysis and "Unweighed Average" clustering method are employed based on the same dissimilarity. Through the results, we find that MDS gives us a more intuitive mapping for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behavior, while the MDS analysis based on ?DCCA dissimilarity can provide more clear, detailed, and accurate information on the classification of the stock markets than the MDS analysis based on Euclidean dissimilarity. The MDS analysis based on DTW dissimilarity indicates more knowledge about the correlations between stock markets particularly and interestingly. Meanwhile, it reflects more abundant results on the clustering of stock markets and is much more intensive than the MDS analysis based on Euclidean dissimilarity. In addition, the graphs, originated from applying MDS methods based on ?DCCA dissimilarity and DTW dissimilarity, may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models. PMID:24985414

  12. Modified multidimensional scaling approach to analyze financial markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yi; Shang, Pengjian

    2014-06-01

    Detrended cross-correlation coefficient (?DCCA) and dynamic time warping (DTW) are introduced as the dissimilarity measures, respectively, while multidimensional scaling (MDS) is employed to translate the dissimilarities between daily price returns of 24 stock markets. We first propose MDS based on ?DCCA dissimilarity and MDS based on DTW dissimilarity creatively, while MDS based on Euclidean dissimilarity is also employed to provide a reference for comparisons. We apply these methods in order to further visualize the clustering between stock markets. Moreover, we decide to confront MDS with an alternative visualization method, "Unweighed Average" clustering method, for comparison. The MDS analysis and "Unweighed Average" clustering method are employed based on the same dissimilarity. Through the results, we find that MDS gives us a more intuitive mapping for observing stable or emerging clusters of stock markets with similar behavior, while the MDS analysis based on ?DCCA dissimilarity can provide more clear, detailed, and accurate information on the classification of the stock markets than the MDS analysis based on Euclidean dissimilarity. The MDS analysis based on DTW dissimilarity indicates more knowledge about the correlations between stock markets particularly and interestingly. Meanwhile, it reflects more abundant results on the clustering of stock markets and is much more intensive than the MDS analysis based on Euclidean dissimilarity. In addition, the graphs, originated from applying MDS methods based on ?DCCA dissimilarity and DTW dissimilarity, may also guide the construction of multivariate econometric models.

  13. Cheaper faster drug development validated by the repositioning of drugs against neglected tropical diseases.

    PubMed

    Williams, Kevin; Bilsland, Elizabeth; Sparkes, Andrew; Aubrey, Wayne; Young, Michael; Soldatova, Larisa N; De Grave, Kurt; Ramon, Jan; de Clare, Michaela; Sirawaraporn, Worachart; Oliver, Stephen G; King, Ross D

    2015-03-01

    There is an urgent need to make drug discovery cheaper and faster. This will enable the development of treatments for diseases currently neglected for economic reasons, such as tropical and orphan diseases, and generally increase the supply of new drugs. Here, we report the Robot Scientist 'Eve' designed to make drug discovery more economical. A Robot Scientist is a laboratory automation system that uses artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to discover scientific knowledge through cycles of experimentation. Eve integrates and automates library-screening, hit-confirmation, and lead generation through cycles of quantitative structure activity relationship learning and testing. Using econometric modelling we demonstrate that the use of AI to select compounds economically outperforms standard drug screening. For further efficiency Eve uses a standardized form of assay to compute Boolean functions of compound properties. These assays can be quickly and cheaply engineered using synthetic biology, enabling more targets to be assayed for a given budget. Eve has repositioned several drugs against specific targets in parasites that cause tropical diseases. One validated discovery is that the anti-cancer compound TNP-470 is a potent inhibitor of dihydrofolate reductase from the malaria-causing parasite Plasmodium vivax. PMID:25652463

  14. How energy conversion drives economic growth far from the equilibrium of neoclassical economics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kümmel, Reiner; Lindenberger, Dietmar

    2014-12-01

    Energy conversion in the machines and information processors of the capital stock drives the growth of modern economies. This is exemplified for Germany, Japan, and the USA during the second half of the 20th century: econometric analyses reveal that the output elasticity, i.e. the economic weight, of energy is much larger than energy's share in total factor cost, while for labor just the opposite is true. This is at variance with mainstream economic theory according to which an economy should operate in the neoclassical equilibrium, where output elasticities equal factor cost shares. The standard derivation of the neoclassical equilibrium from the maximization of profit or of time-integrated utility disregards technological constraints. We show that the inclusion of these constraints in our nonlinear-optimization calculus results in equilibrium conditions, where generalized shadow prices destroy the equality of output elasticities and cost shares. Consequently, at the prices of capital, labor, and energy we have known so far, industrial economies have evolved far from the neoclassical equilibrium. This is illustrated by the example of the German industrial sector evolving on the mountain of factor costs before and during the first and the second oil price explosion. It indicates the influence of the ‘virtually binding’ technological constraints on entrepreneurial decisions, and the existence of ‘soft constraints’ as well. Implications for employment and future economic growth are discussed.

  15. Nuclear's role in 21. century Pacific rim energy use

    SciTech Connect

    Singer, Clifford; Taylor, J'Tia

    2007-07-01

    Extrapolations contrast the future of nuclear energy use in Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) to that of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Japan can expect a gradual rise in the nuclear fraction of a nearly constant total energy use rate as the use of fossil fuels declines. ROK nuclear energy rises gradually with total energy use. ASEAN's total nuclear energy use rate can rapidly approach that of the ROK if Indonesia and Vietnam make their current nuclear energy targets by 2020, but experience elsewhere suggests that nuclear energy growth may be slower than planned. Extrapolations are based on econometric calibration to a utility optimization model of the impact of growth of population, gross domestic product, total energy use, and cumulative fossil carbon use. Fractions of total energy use from fluid fossil fuels, coal, water-driven electrical power production, nuclear energy, and wind and solar electric energy sources are fit to market fractions data. Where historical data is insufficient for extrapolation, plans for non-fossil energy are used as a guide. Extrapolations suggest much more U.S. nuclear energy and spent nuclear fuel generation than for the ROK and ASEAN until beyond the first half of the twenty-first century. (authors)

  16. Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence from China's Ten Key Cities

    E-print Network

    Meng, Hao; Zhou, Wei-Xing

    2015-01-01

    The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\\%-3\\% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than ten years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing ten representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5\\% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The ten key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident converge...

  17. The impact of micro health insurance on Rwandan health centre costs.

    PubMed

    Schneider, Pia; Hanson, Kara

    2007-01-01

    While the implications of payment mechanisms for provider behaviour and cost have been amply explored in industrialized countries, there is little empirical evidence from developing countries. This study exploits the opportunities created by a pilot study of micro health insurance with capitation in Rwanda to address this issue. Using cross-sectional data collected in 52 health centres, the paper employs an econometric cost function with payer-specific outputs to assess the cost impact of two provider payment mechanisms: (1) user fees for care paid by the uninsured, and (2) capitation payment paid by informal insurance schemes for the insured. The cost function allows payer-specific marginal and average costs and scale measures to be calculated. Findings point to significant differences in cost between the two payment forms. These may be due to the incentives embodied in the capitation provider payment or the less severe case-mix among insured patients arising from improved access to care for this group, or both. For both payment types there are important short-run economies of scale, which could be exploited through more intensive use of idle resources in health centres. PMID:17158521

  18. Adjusting body mass for measurement error with invalid validation data.

    PubMed

    Courtemanche, Charles; Pinkston, Joshua C; Stewart, Jay

    2015-12-01

    We propose a new method for using validation data to correct self-reported weight and height in surveys that do not measure respondents. The standard correction in prior research regresses actual measures on reported values using an external validation dataset, and then uses the estimated coefficients to predict actual measures in the primary dataset. This approach requires the strong assumption that the expectations of measured weight and height conditional on the reported values are the same in both datasets. In contrast, we use percentile ranks rather than levels of reported weight and height. Our approach requires the weaker assumption that the conditional expectations of actual measures are increasing in reported values in both samples. This makes our correction more robust to differences in measurement error across surveys as long as both surveys represent the same population. We examine three nationally representative datasets and find that misreporting appears to be sensitive to differences in survey context. When we compare predicted BMI distributions using the two validation approaches, we find that the standard correction is affected by differences in misreporting while our correction is not. Finally, we present several examples that demonstrate the potential importance of our correction for future econometric analyses and estimates of obesity rates. PMID:26072329

  19. Spatial distribution of U.S. household carbon footprints reveals suburbanization undermines greenhouse gas benefits of urban population density.

    PubMed

    Jones, Christopher; Kammen, Daniel M

    2014-01-21

    Which municipalities and locations within the United States contribute the most to household greenhouse gas emissions, and what is the effect of population density and suburbanization on emissions? Using national household surveys, we developed econometric models of demand for energy, transportation, food, goods, and services that were used to derive average household carbon footprints (HCF) for U.S. zip codes, cities, counties, and metropolitan areas. We find consistently lower HCF in urban core cities (? 40 tCO2e) and higher carbon footprints in outlying suburbs (? 50 tCO2e), with a range from ? 25 to >80 tCO2e in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. Population density exhibits a weak but positive correlation with HCF until a density threshold is met, after which range, mean, and standard deviation of HCF decline. While population density contributes to relatively low HCF in the central cities of large metropolitan areas, the more extensive suburbanization in these regions contributes to an overall net increase in HCF compared to smaller metropolitan areas. Suburbs alone account for ? 50% of total U.S. HCF. Differences in the size, composition, and location of household carbon footprints suggest the need for tailoring of greenhouse gas mitigation efforts to different populations. PMID:24328208

  20. Measuring overfitting in nonlinear models: a new method and an application to health expenditures.

    PubMed

    Bilger, Marcel; Manning, Willard G

    2015-01-01

    When fitting an econometric model, it is well known that we pick up part of the idiosyncratic characteristics of the data along with the systematic relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. This phenomenon is known as overfitting and generally occurs when a model is excessively complex relative to the amount of data available. Overfitting is a major threat to regression analysis in terms of both inference and prediction. We start by showing that the Copas measure becomes confounded by shrinkage or expansion arising from in-sample bias when applied to the untransformed scale of nonlinear models, which is typically the scale of interest when assessing behaviors or analyzing policies. We then propose a new measure of overfitting that is both expressed on the scale of interest and immune to this problem. We also show how to measure the respective contributions of in-sample bias and overfitting to the overall predictive bias when applying an estimated model to new data. We finally illustrate the properties of our new measure through both a simulation study and a real-data illustration based on inpatient healthcare expenditure data, which shows that the distinctions can be important. PMID:24123628