Scenario Analysis With Economic-Energy Systems Models Coupled to Simple Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanson, D. A.; Kotamarthi, V. R.; Foster, I. T.; Franklin, M.; Zhu, E.; Patel, D. M.

2008-12-01

Here, we compare two scenarios based on Stanford University's Energy Modeling Forum Study 22 on global cooperative and non-cooperative climate policies. In the former, efficient transition paths are implemented including technology Research and Development effort, energy conservation programs, and price signals for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the non-cooperative case, some countries try to relax their regulations and be free riders. Total emissions and costs are higher in the non-cooperative scenario. The simulations, including climate impacts, run to the year 2100. We use the Argonne AMIGA-MARS economic-energy systems model, the Texas AM University's Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (FASOM), and the University of Illinois's Integrated Science Assessment Model (ISAM), with offline coupling between the FASOM and AMIGA-MARS and an online coupling between AMIGA-MARS and ISAM. This set of models captures the interaction of terrestrial systems, land use, crops and forests, climate change, human activity, and energy systems. Our scenario simulations represent dynamic paths over which all the climate, terrestrial, economic, and energy technology equations are solved simultaneously Special attention is paid to biofuels and how they interact with conventional gasoline/diesel fuel markets. Possible low-carbon penetration paths are based on estimated costs for new technologies, including cellulosic biomass, coal-to-liquids, plug-in electric vehicles, solar and nuclear energy. We explicitly explore key uncertainties that affect mitigation and adaptation scenarios.

Microalgae biorefineries: The Brazilian scenario in perspective.

PubMed

Brasil, B S A F; Silva, F C P; Siqueira, F G

2017-10-25

Biorefineries have the potential to meet a significant part of the growing demand for energy, fuels, chemicals and materials worldwide. Indeed, the bio-based industry is expected to play a major role in energy security and climate change mitigation during the 21th century. Despite this, there are challenges related to resource consumption, processing optimization and waste minimization that still need to be overcome. In this context, microalgae appear as a promising non-edible feedstock with advantages over traditional land crops, such as high productivity, continuous harvesting throughout the year and minimal problems regarding land use. Importantly, both cultivation and microalgae processing can take place at the same site, which increases the possibilities for process integration and a reduction in logistic costs at biorefinery facilities. This review describes the actual scenario for microalgae biorefineries integration to the biofuels and petrochemical industries in Brazil, while highlighting the major challenges and recent advances in microalgae large-scale production. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health benefit evaluation of the energy use scenarios in Beijing, China.

PubMed

Pan, Xiaochuan; Yue, Wei; He, Kebin; Tong, Shilu

2007-03-15

Air pollution is one of the important causal factors for excess cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases. However, little information is available on health gains from clean energy usage in developing countries. In this study the expected population exposed to air pollutants was estimated under the different energy use scenarios by the year 2010, 2020 and 2030, respectively, in the urban area of Beijing, China. The concentration-response functions between air pollutants and the health endpoints were established using meta-analysis and regression models. The decreased cardiorespiratory deaths and diseases of the exposed population were predicted as the health benefits from air pollution reduction. We used daily measurements of particulate matter less than 10 mum in aerodynamic diameter (PM(10)) and sulphate dioxide (SO(2)) as air pollution indicators. The percentage of population exposed to higher level of PM(10) will be decreased significantly under the clean energy use scenario than that under the Baseline Scenario (i.e., business-as-usual scenario). Compared with the Baseline Scenario there will be, by 2010, 2020, and 2030, respectively, a decrease of 29-152, 30-212 and 39-287 acute excess deaths; and 340-1811, 356-2529 and 462-3424 chronic excess deaths associated with the reduction of PM(10) level; also a decrease of 237-331, 285-371 and 400-554 short-term excess deaths associated with the decrease of SO(2) level. Meanwhile, the number of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions, outpatient visits to internal and paediatrics departments, total emergency room visits and asthma attacks will be remarkably reduced with the reduction of air pollution. Energy structure improvement could reduce ambient air pollution and produce substantial health benefits to the population in Beijing. These findings may have significant implications for other metropolitan cities, particularly in developing countries.

Talking with consumers about energy reductions: recommendations from a motivational interviewing perspective

PubMed Central

Klonek, Florian E.; Kauffeld, Simone

2015-01-01

Reduction of energy costs has become a concern for many organizations. First, we review energy-saving studies in organizations in which consumers showed resistance to change their behavior. Second, we relate resistance to change to the psycholinguistic construct “sustain talk” that describes verbal arguments against behavior change (e.g., “Work processes have priority here”). Third, we argue how Motivational Interviewing (MI)—an interaction-approach to facilitate behavior change—might be helpful in dealing with this behavior. We transfer MI to interactions about energy-savings in organizations and demonstrate how qualification in MI for energy managers may affect these interactions. Therefore, we present three short case scenarios (i.e., video vignettes) that demonstrate socio-interactional mechanisms underlying energy-relevant decisions and behaviors. Consumer' verbal responses are graphed as one single time-variant index of readiness versus resistance (R-index) in order to illustrate interactional dynamics. In sum, we combine theoretical and empirical perspectives from multiple disciplines and discuss an innovative socio-interaction approach that may facilitate energy-efficient behavior in organizations. PMID:25821440

Using scenarios of North Slope energy and resource development to assess research and monitoring needs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Payne, J. F.

2016-12-01

Significant Arctic environmental and socio-economic change has been observed on the North Slope of Alaska, presenting challenges for resident communities and management agencies that need to adapt to future changes that are difficult to model or predict. Continued climate change coupled with new or modified energy development could substantially alter the landscape and ecosystem in the future. The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) recognized the value of using a participatory scenarios process to consider plausible future energy and resource development scenarios through the year 2040 to help identify and prioritize research and monitoring needs on the North Slope. The scenarios process engaged diverse stakeholders, including subject matter experts and local knowledge holders. Through identification and ranking of key drivers and uncertainties relevant to the focus of the study, a series of spatially explicit scenarios was developed, analyzed in terms of low, medium and high development activities. Climate change and economic factors were key drivers affecting plausible energy development scenarios. The implications from each of the scenarios were then used to identify important research and monitoring activities and their relevant spatial scales. The scenarios project identified over 40 research and monitoring needs. The top five research needs addressed data gaps and key concerns related to how the scenarios could affect: hunting and trapping on land, health and community well-being, permafrost and hydrology, marine mammal subsistence and potential marine oil spills. The use of a participatory scenarios process was essential for identifying a range of plausible energy and resource development scenarios using a framework that involved a systematic assessment of complex interacting drivers of change, consideration of key uncertainties, and transparency throughout the project.

Evaluating Uncertainty in GHG Emission Scenarios: Mapping IAM Outlooks With an Energy System Phase Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2017-12-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing (RF). Pathways for long-run fossil energy use that map to total forcing outcomes are commonly depicted with integrated assessment models (IAMs). IAMs structure outlooks for 21st-century emissions with various theories for developments in demographics, economics, land-use, energy markets and energy service demands. These concepts are applied to understand global changes in two key factors relevant for scenarios of carbon emissions: total energy use (E) this century and the carbon intensity of that energy (F/E). A simple analytical and graphical approach can also illustrate the full range of outcomes for these variables to determine if IAMs provide sufficient coverage of the uncertainty space for future energy use. In this talk, we present a method for understanding uncertainties relevant to RF scenario components in a phase space. The phase space of a dynamic system represents significant factors as axes to capture the full range of physically possible states. A two-dimensional phase space of E and F/E presents the possible system states that can lead to various levels of total 21st-century carbon emissions. Once defined in this way, a phase space of these energy system coordinates allows for rapid characterization of large IAM scenario sets with machine learning techniques. This phase space method is applied to the levels of RF described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The resulting RCP phase space identifies characteristics of the baseline energy system outlooks provided by IAMs for IPCC Working Group III. We conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the major features of IAM scenarios for each RCP range. Cluster analysis finds the IAM scenarios in AR5 illustrate RCPs with consistent combinations of energy resources. This suggests IAM scenarios understate uncertainty ranges for future

Smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0: Conceptual framework, scenarios, and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Pai; wang, Honghui; Sang, Zhiqian; Zhong, Ray Y.; Liu, Yongkui; Liu, Chao; Mubarok, Khamdi; Yu, Shiqiang; Xu, Xun

2018-06-01

Information and communication technology is undergoing rapid development, and many disruptive technologies, such as cloud computing, Internet of Things, big data, and artificial intelligence, have emerged. These technologies are permeating the manufacturing industry and enable the fusion of physical and virtual worlds through cyber-physical systems (CPS), which mark the advent of the fourth stage of industrial production (i.e., Industry 4.0). The widespread application of CPS in manufacturing environments renders manufacturing systems increasingly smart. To advance research on the implementation of Industry 4.0, this study examines smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0. First, a conceptual framework of smart manufacturing systems for Industry 4.0 is presented. Second, demonstrative scenarios that pertain to smart design, smart machining, smart control, smart monitoring, and smart scheduling, are presented. Key technologies and their possible applications to Industry 4.0 smart manufacturing systems are reviewed based on these demonstrative scenarios. Finally, challenges and future perspectives are identified and discussed.

Nuclear energy in Europe: uranium flow modeling and fuel cycle scenario trade-offs from a sustainability perspective.

PubMed

Tendall, Danielle M; Binder, Claudia R

2011-03-15

The European nuclear fuel cycle (covering the EU-27, Switzerland and Ukraine) was modeled using material flow analysis (MFA).The analysis was based on publicly available data from nuclear energy agencies and industries, national trade offices, and nongovernmental organizations. Military uranium was not considered due to lack of accessible data. Nuclear fuel cycle scenarios varying spent fuel reprocessing, depleted uranium re-enrichment, enrichment assays, and use of fast neutron reactors, were established. They were then assessed according to environmental, economic and social criteria such as resource depletion, waste production, chemical and radiation emissions, costs, and proliferation risks. The most preferable scenario in the short term is a combination of reduced tails assay and enrichment grade, allowing a 17.9% reduction of uranium demand without significantly increasing environmental, economic, or social risks. In the long term, fast reactors could theoretically achieve a 99.4% decrease in uranium demand and nuclear waste production. However, this involves important costs and proliferation risks. Increasing material efficiency is not systematically correlated with the reduction of other risks. This suggests that an overall optimization of the nuclear fuel cycle is difficult to obtain. Therefore, criteria must be weighted according to stakeholder interests in order to determine the most sustainable solution. This paper models the flows of uranium and associated materials in Europe, and provides a decision support tool for identifying the trade-offs of the alternative nuclear fuel cycles considered.

Novel pervasive scenarios for home management: the Butlers architecture.

PubMed

Denti, Enrico

2014-01-01

Many efforts today aim to energy saving, promoting the user's awareness and virtuous behavior in a sustainability perspective. Our houses, appliances, energy meters and devices are becoming smarter and connected, domotics is increasing possibilities in house automation and control, and ambient intelligence and assisted living are bringing attention onto people's needs from different viewpoints. Our assumption is that considering these aspects together allows for novel intriguing possibilities. To this end, in this paper we combine home energy management with domotics, coordination technologies, intelligent agents, ambient intelligence, ubiquitous technologies and gamification to devise novel scenarios, where energy monitoring and management is just the basic brick of a much wider and comprehensive home management system. The aim is to control home appliances well beyond energy consumption, combining home comfort, appliance scheduling, safety constraints, etc. with dynamically-changeable users' preferences, goals and priorities. At the same time, usability and attractiveness are seen as key success factors: so, the intriguing technologies available in most houses and smart devices are exploited to make the system configuration and use simpler, entertaining and attractive for users. These aspects are also integrated with ubiquitous and pervasive technologies, geo-localization, social networks and communities to provide enhanced functionalities and support smarter application scenarios, hereby further strengthening technology acceptation and diffusion. Accordingly, we first analyse the system requirements and define a reference multi-layer architectural model - the Butlers architecture - that specifies seven layers of functionalities, correlating the requirements, the corresponding technologies and the consequent value-added for users in each layer. Then, we outline a set of notable scenarios of increasing functionalities and complexity, discuss the structure of the

Environmental impacts of high penetration renewable energy scenarios for Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berrill, Peter; Arvesen, Anders; Scholz, Yvonne; Gils, Hans Christian; Hertwich, Edgar G.

2016-01-01

The prospect of irreversible environmental alterations and an increasingly volatile climate pressurises societies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, thereby mitigating climate change impacts. As global electricity demand continues to grow, particularly if considering a future with increased electrification of heat and transport sectors, the imperative to decarbonise our electricity supply becomes more urgent. This letter implements outputs of a detailed power system optimisation model into a prospective life cycle analysis framework in order to present a life cycle analysis of 44 electricity scenarios for Europe in 2050, including analyses of systems based largely on low-carbon fossil energy options (natural gas, and coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS)) as well as systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) (wind and solar). VRE curtailments and impacts caused by extra energy storage and transmission capabilities necessary in systems based on VRE are taken into account. The results show that systems based largely on VRE perform much better regarding climate change and other impact categories than the investigated systems based on fossil fuels. The climate change impacts from Europe for the year 2050 in a scenario using primarily natural gas are 1400 Tg CO2-eq while in a scenario using mostly coal with CCS the impacts are 480 Tg CO2-eq. Systems based on renewables with an even mix of wind and solar capacity generate impacts of 120-140 Tg CO2-eq. Impacts arising as a result of wind and solar variability do not significantly compromise the climate benefits of utilising these energy resources. VRE systems require more infrastructure leading to much larger mineral resource depletion impacts than fossil fuel systems, and greater land occupation impacts than systems based on natural gas. Emissions and resource requirements from wind power are smaller than from solar power.

Capital requirements for the transportation of energy materials based on PIES Scenario estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gezen, A.; Kendrick, M.J.; Khan, S.S.

In May 1978, Transportation and Economic Research Associates (TERA), Inc. completed a study in which information and methodologies were developed for the determination of capital requirements in the transportation of energy materials. This work was designed to aid EIA in the analysis of PIES solutions. The work consisted of the development of five algorithms which are used to estimate transportation-investment requirements associated with energy commodities and transportation modes. For the purpose of this analysis, TERA was provided with three PIES-solution scenarios for 1985. These are: Scenario A which assumes a high domestic economic rate of growth along with its correspondingmore » high demand for petroleum, as well as a high domestic supply of petroleum; Scenario C which assumes a medium level of economic growth and petroleum demand and supply; and Scenario E which assumes a low level of economic growth and domestic demand and supply for petroleum. Two PIES-related outputs used in TERA's analysis are the ''COOKIE'' reports which present activity summaries by region and ''PERUSE'' printouts of solution files which give interregional flows by energy material. Only the transportation of four energy materials, crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and coal is considered. In estimating the capital costs of new or expanded capacity for the transportation of these materials, three transportation modes were examined: pipelines, water carriers (inland barge and deep draft vessels), and railroads. (MCW)« less

The Future of Clinical Education: Using Futuristic Scenarios to Explore Allied Health Deans' Perspectives on Clinical Education.

PubMed

Romig, Barbara D; Tucker, Ann W; Hewitt, Anne M; O'Sullivan Maillet, Julie

2017-01-01

There is limited information and consensus on the future of clinical education. The Delphi technique was selected to identify agreement among Association of Schools of Allied Health Professions' (ASAHP) allied health deans on the future (2018-2023) of allied health (AH) clinical education. Sixty-one AH deans, 54.9% (61 of 111) of the ASAHP membership, expressed opinions about clinical education through a three-round Delphi study. In conjunction with a conceptual model, four futuristic scenarios were used to encourage deans' feedback on the key factors impacting the future of clinical education. The responses to the four scenarios showed ways the external environment influences which activities the deans recommend. The results presented, by individual scenario and in totality, provide relevant and timely information on the importance and transformation of AH clinical education and its future. Futuristic scenarios, in combination with the Delphi technique, generated information where little exists specific to AH deans' perspectives on AH clinical education. The results offer deans opportunities for future strategic improvements. The use of the futuristic scenarios was suitable for guiding deans' responses and reaching agreement on the future of AH clinical education. These contributions reflect the imminent conditions and healthcare environment identified in the various scenarios and provide additional insight on key factors impacting the future for AH clinical education.

Experimental energy consumption of Frame Slotted ALOHA and Distributed Queuing for data collection scenarios.

PubMed

Tuset-Peiro, Pere; Vazquez-Gallego, Francisco; Alonso-Zarate, Jesus; Alonso, Luis; Vilajosana, Xavier

2014-07-24

Data collection is a key scenario for the Internet of Things because it enables gathering sensor data from distributed nodes that use low-power and long-range wireless technologies to communicate in a single-hop approach. In this kind of scenario, the network is composed of one coordinator that covers a particular area and a large number of nodes, typically hundreds or thousands, that transmit data to the coordinator upon request. Considering this scenario, in this paper we experimentally validate the energy consumption of two Medium Access Control (MAC) protocols, Frame Slotted ALOHA (FSA) and Distributed Queuing (DQ). We model both protocols as a state machine and conduct experiments to measure the average energy consumption in each state and the average number of times that a node has to be in each state in order to transmit a data packet to the coordinator. The results show that FSA is more energy efficient than DQ if the number of nodes is known a priori because the number of slots per frame can be adjusted accordingly. However, in such scenarios the number of nodes cannot be easily anticipated, leading to additional packet collisions and a higher energy consumption due to retransmissions. Contrarily, DQ does not require to know the number of nodes in advance because it is able to efficiently construct an ad hoc network schedule for each collection round. This kind of a schedule ensures that there are no packet collisions during data transmission, thus leading to an energy consumption reduction above 10% compared to FSA.

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE PAGES

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander; ...

2016-08-18

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kriegler, Elmar; Bauer, Nico; Popp, Alexander

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, markingmore » the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.« less

Resource Demand Scenarios for the Major Metals.

PubMed

Elshkaki, Ayman; Graedel, T E; Ciacci, Luca; Reck, Barbara K

2018-03-06

The growth in metal use in the past few decades raises concern that supplies may be insufficient to meet demands in the future. From the perspective of historical and current use data for seven major metals-iron, manganese, aluminum, copper, nickel, zinc, and lead-we have generated several scenarios of potential metal demand from 2010 to 2050 under alternative patterns of global development. We have also compared those demands with various assessments of potential supply to midcentury. Five conclusions emerge: (1) The calculated demand for each of the seven metals doubles or triples relative to 2010 levels by midcentury; (2) The largest demand increases relate to a scenario in which increasingly equitable values and institutions prevail throughout the world; (3) The metal recycling flows in the scenarios meet only a modest fraction of future metals demand for the next few decades; (4) In the case of copper, zinc, and perhaps lead, supply may be unlikely to meet demand by about midcentury under the current use patterns of the respective metals; (5) Increased rates of demand for metals imply substantial new energy provisioning, leading to increases in overall global energy demand of 21-37%. These results imply that extensive technological transformations and governmental initiatives could be needed over the next several decades in order that regional and global development and associated metal demand are not to be constrained by limited metal supply.

Energy development and environment: What about solar energy in a long term perspective?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessus, Benjamin; Pharabod, Francois

After decades of strong growth, the next century might be that in which the world population is stabilized around 11 billion inhabitants. Next century's main concerns include the development hoped for the probable consequences of an increase of the greenhouse effect due to main induced emissions, and the risks posed by possible dissemination of nuclear energy to all the regions of the globe. In order to shed some light on these questions, we propose an energy scenario, based on an analysis of evolution of demographics, energy needs, renewable and fossil reserves, environmental issues, technological possibilities and regional imbalances. This scenario shows that solar energy could contribute significantly in the long term energy mix. We discuss the respective advantages and drawbacks of the different solar technologies: solar power satellites, ground solar power plants and decentralized applications, as they to the needs that must be satisfied.

Evaluation of Energy Policy Instruments for the Adoption of Renewable Energy: Case of Wind Energy in the Pacific Northwest U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abotah, Remal

The wide use of renewable energy technologies for generating electricity can be seen as one way of meeting environmental and climate change challenges along with a progression to a low-carbon economy. A large number of policy instruments have been formed and employed to support the adoption of renewable energy technologies in the power generation sector. However, the success of these policies in achieving their goals relies on how effective they are in satisfying their targets and thus increasing renewable energy adoption. One measurement for effectiveness of policy instruments can be their contribution to the input of the process of renewable energy adoption and their effect on satisfying regional goal. The objective of this research is evaluate the effectiveness of energy policy instruments on increasing the adoption of renewable energy by developing a comprehensive evaluation model. Criteria used in this assessment depend on five perspectives that are perceived by decision makers as important for adoption process. The decision model linked the perspectives to policy targets and various energy policy instruments. These perspectives are: economic, social, political, environmental and technical. The research implemented the hierarchical decision model (HDM) to construct a generalized policy assessment framework. Data for wind energy adoption in the Pacific Northwest region were collected as a case study and application for the model. Experts' qualitative judgments were collected and quantified using the pair-wise comparison method and the final rankings and effectiveness of policy alternatives with respect to the mission were identified. Results of this research identified economic feasibility improvement of renewable energy projects as the most influential perspective and that renewable portfolio standards and tax credits are the two most effective criteria to accomplish that. The research also applied sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis to identify the

Meeting China's electricity needs through clean energy sources: A 2030 low-carbon energy roadmap

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zheng

China is undergoing rapid economic development that generates significant increase in energy demand, primarily for electricity. Energy supply in China is heavily relying on coal, which leads to high carbon emissions. This dissertation explores opportunities for meeting China's growing power demand through clean energy sources. The utilization of China's clean energy sources as well as demand-side management is still at the initial phase. Therefore, development of clean energy sources would require substantial government support in order to be competitive in the market. One of the widely used means to consider clean energy in power sector supplying is Integrated Resource Strategic Planning, which aims to minimize the long term electricity costs while screening various power supply options for the power supply and demand analysis. The IRSP tool tackles the energy problem from the perspective of power sector regulators, and provides different policy scenarios to quantify the impacts of combined incentives. Through three scenario studies, Business as Usual, High Renewable, and Renewable and Demand Side Management, this dissertation identifies the optimized scenario for China to achieve the clean energy target of 2030. The scenarios are assessed through energy, economics, environment, and equity dimensions.

The Application of High Energy Resolution Green's Functions to Threat Scenario Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thoreson, Gregory G.; Schneider, Erich A.

2012-04-01

Radiation detectors installed at key interdiction points provide defense against nuclear smuggling attempts by scanning vehicles and traffic for illicit nuclear material. These hypothetical threat scenarios may be modeled using radiation transport simulations. However, high-fidelity models are computationally intensive. Furthermore, the range of smuggler attributes and detector technologies create a large problem space not easily overcome by brute-force methods. Previous research has demonstrated that decomposing the scenario into independently simulated components using Green's functions can simulate photon detector signals with coarse energy resolution. This paper extends this methodology by presenting physics enhancements and numerical treatments which allow for an arbitrary level of energy resolution for photon transport. As a result, spectroscopic detector signals produced from full forward transport simulations can be replicated while requiring multiple orders of magnitude less computation time.

Energy Storage Systems: A Manufacturer’s Perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallant, Eric

From a manufacturer’s perspective, Eric Gallant of GS Battery presents a case study of energy storage installations, emphasizing energy storage in terms of its impact on people’s lives, as well as changes in such related areas as evolving codes and standards.

Own aging: future time perspectives and scenarios perceived by females employed in old age care.

PubMed

Fromholt, P; Larsen, P; Snell, H

1994-04-01

This study focuses on anticipations of own aging, and the process of adaptation to aging across the life span. Future time perspectives and aging scenarios were investigated in 276 Danish females employed in old age care (aged 22 to 63 years), by use of questionnaires. Age-related differences were found regarding how far ahead subjects indicated to plan their future, increasing from about two years in subjects in their twenties and stabilizing at about ten years in older subjects. Datings of events that first initiated thinking of one's own aging increased with the age of the subjects, and some age-related patterns in the content of recalled events were found. A developmental mechanism involving reinterpretation of essential elements of aging is suggested as an explanation for these findings. A preponderance of positive scenarios suggests that optimistic anticipations of own aging may coexist with exposure to negative aspects of aging due to working experiences with disabled old people.

Scenario and multiple criteria decision analysis for energy and environmental security of military and industrial installations.

PubMed

Karvetski, Christopher W; Lambert, James H; Linkov, Igor

2011-04-01

Military and industrial facilities need secure and reliable power generation. Grid outages can result in cascading infrastructure failures as well as security breaches and should be avoided. Adding redundancy and increasing reliability can require additional environmental, financial, logistical, and other considerations and resources. Uncertain scenarios consisting of emergent environmental conditions, regulatory changes, growth of regional energy demands, and other concerns result in further complications. Decisions on selecting energy alternatives are made on an ad hoc basis. The present work integrates scenario analysis and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to identify combinations of impactful emergent conditions and to perform a preliminary benefits analysis of energy and environmental security investments for industrial and military installations. Application of a traditional MCDA approach would require significant stakeholder elicitations under multiple uncertain scenarios. The approach proposed in this study develops and iteratively adjusts a scoring function for investment alternatives to find the scenarios with the most significant impacts on installation security. A robust prioritization of investment alternatives can be achieved by integrating stakeholder preferences and focusing modeling and decision-analytical tools on a few key emergent conditions and scenarios. The approach is described and demonstrated for a campus of several dozen interconnected industrial buildings within a major installation. Copyright © 2010 SETAC.

Re-thinking Innovation in Organizations in the Industry 4.0 Scenario: New Challenges in a Primary Prevention Perspective.

PubMed

Palazzeschi, Letizia; Bucci, Ornella; Di Fabio, Annamaria

2018-01-01

In organizations, innovation is considered a relevant aspect of success and long-term survival. Organizations recognize that innovation contributes to creating competitive advantages in a more competitive, challenging and changing labor market. The present contribution addresses innovation in organizations in the scenario of Industry 4.0, including technological innovation and psychological innovation. Innovation is a core concept in this framework to face the challenge of globalized and fluid labor market in the 21st century. Reviewing the definition of innovation, the article focuses on innovative work behaviors and the relative measures. This perspective article also suggests new directions in a primary prevention perspective for future research and intervention relative to innovation and innovative work behaviors in the organizational context.

Energy-Efficient Transmissions for Remote Wireless Sensor Networks: An Integrated HAP/Satellite Architecture for Emergency Scenarios

PubMed Central

Dong, Feihong; Li, Hongjun; Gong, Xiangwu; Liu, Quan; Wang, Jingchao

2015-01-01

A typical application scenario of remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is identified as an emergency scenario. One of the greatest design challenges for communications in emergency scenarios is energy-efficient transmission, due to scarce electrical energy in large-scale natural and man-made disasters. Integrated high altitude platform (HAP)/satellite networks are expected to optimally meet emergency communication requirements. In this paper, a novel integrated HAP/satellite (IHS) architecture is proposed, and three segments of the architecture are investigated in detail. The concept of link-state advertisement (LSA) is designed in a slow flat Rician fading channel. The LSA is received and processed by the terminal to estimate the link state information, which can significantly reduce the energy consumption at the terminal end. Furthermore, the transmission power requirements of the HAPs and terminals are derived using the gradient descent and differential equation methods. The energy consumption is modeled at both the source and system level. An innovative and adaptive algorithm is given for the energy-efficient path selection. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithm. It is shown that the proposed adaptive algorithm can significantly improve energy efficiency when combined with the LSA and the energy consumption estimation. PMID:26404292

Energy-Efficient Transmissions for Remote Wireless Sensor Networks: An Integrated HAP/Satellite Architecture for Emergency Scenarios.

PubMed

Dong, Feihong; Li, Hongjun; Gong, Xiangwu; Liu, Quan; Wang, Jingchao

2015-09-03

A typical application scenario of remote wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is identified as an emergency scenario. One of the greatest design challenges for communications in emergency scenarios is energy-efficient transmission, due to scarce electrical energy in large-scale natural and man-made disasters. Integrated high altitude platform (HAP)/satellite networks are expected to optimally meet emergency communication requirements. In this paper, a novel integrated HAP/satellite (IHS) architecture is proposed, and three segments of the architecture are investigated in detail. The concept of link-state advertisement (LSA) is designed in a slow flat Rician fading channel. The LSA is received and processed by the terminal to estimate the link state information, which can significantly reduce the energy consumption at the terminal end. Furthermore, the transmission power requirements of the HAPs and terminals are derived using the gradient descent and differential equation methods. The energy consumption is modeled at both the source and system level. An innovative and adaptive algorithm is given for the energy-efficient path selection. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive algorithm. It is shown that the proposed adaptive algorithm can significantly improve energy efficiency when combined with the LSA and the energy consumption estimation.

Re-thinking Innovation in Organizations in the Industry 4.0 Scenario: New Challenges in a Primary Prevention Perspective

PubMed Central

Palazzeschi, Letizia; Bucci, Ornella; Di Fabio, Annamaria

2018-01-01

In organizations, innovation is considered a relevant aspect of success and long-term survival. Organizations recognize that innovation contributes to creating competitive advantages in a more competitive, challenging and changing labor market. The present contribution addresses innovation in organizations in the scenario of Industry 4.0, including technological innovation and psychological innovation. Innovation is a core concept in this framework to face the challenge of globalized and fluid labor market in the 21st century. Reviewing the definition of innovation, the article focuses on innovative work behaviors and the relative measures. This perspective article also suggests new directions in a primary prevention perspective for future research and intervention relative to innovation and innovative work behaviors in the organizational context. PMID:29445349

Community Solar Scenario Tool | Integrated Energy Solutions | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Community Solar Scenario Tool Community Solar Scenario Tool The Community Solar Scenario Tool (CSST ) provides a "first cut" analysis of different community or shared solar program options. NREL sponsoring utility. Community Solar Scenario Tool -Beta Version Available as a Microsoft Excel file, which

Defining climate change scenario characteristics with a phase space of cumulative primary energy and carbon intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, Justin; Dowlatabadi, Hadi

2018-02-01

Climate change modeling relies on projections of future greenhouse gas emissions and other phenomena leading to changes in planetary radiative forcing. Scenarios of socio-technical development consistent with end-of-century forcing levels are commonly produced by integrated assessment models. However, outlooks for forcing from fossil energy combustion can also be presented and defined in terms of two essential components: total energy use this century and the carbon intensity of that energy. This formulation allows a phase space diagram to succinctly describe a broad range of possible outcomes for carbon emissions from the future energy system. In the following paper, we demonstrate this phase space method with the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) as used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The resulting RCP phase space is applied to map IPCC Working Group III (WGIII) reference case ‘no policy’ scenarios. Once these scenarios are described as coordinates in the phase space, data mining techniques can readily distill their core features. Accordingly, we conduct a k-means cluster analysis to distinguish the shared outlooks of these scenarios for oil, gas and coal resource use. As a whole, the AR5 database depicts a transition toward re-carbonization, where a world without climate policy inevitably leads to an energy supply with increasing carbon intensity. This orientation runs counter to the experienced ‘dynamics as usual’ of gradual decarbonization, suggesting climate change targets outlined in the Paris Accord are more readily achievable than projected to date.

Renewable energy scenario in India: Opportunities and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sen, Souvik; Ganguly, Sourav; Das, Ayanangshu; Sen, Joyjeet; Dey, Sourav

2016-10-01

Majority of the power generation in India is carried out by conventional energy sources, coal and fossil fuels being the primary ones, which contribute heavily to greenhouse gas emission and global warming. The Indian power sector is witnessing a revolution as excitement grips the nation about harnessing electricity from various renewable energy sources. Electricity generation from renewable sources is increasingly recognized to play an important role for the achievement of a variety of primary and secondary energy policy goals, such as improved diversity and security of energy supply, reduction of local pollutant and global greenhouse gas emissions, regional and rural development, and exploitation of opportunities for fostering social cohesion, value addition and employment generation at the local and regional level. This focuses the solution of the energy crisis on judicious utilization of abundant the renewable energy resources, such as biomass, solar, wind, geothermal and ocean tidal energy. This paper reviews the renewable energy scenario of India as well as extrapolates the future developments keeping in view the consumption, production and supply of power. Research, development, production and demonstration have been carried out enthusiastically in India to find a feasible solution to the perennial problem of power shortage for the past three decades. India has obtained application of a variety of renewable energy technologies for use in different sectors too. There are ample opportunities with favorable geology and geography with huge customer base and widening gap between demand and supply. Technological advancement, suitable regulatory policies, tax rebates, efficiency improvement in consequence to R&D efforts are the few pathways to energy and environment conservation and it will ensure that these large, clean resource bases are exploited as quickly and cost effectively as possible. This paper gives an overview of the potential renewable energy resources

Energy transition in transport sector from energy substitution perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Wangmin; Yang, Xiaoguang; Han, Song; Sun, Xiaoyang

2017-10-01

Power and heating generation sector and transport sector contribute a highest GHG emissions and even air pollutions. This paper seeks to investigate life cycle costs and emissions in both the power sector and transport sector, and evaluate the cost-emission efficient (costs for one unit GHG emissions) of the substitution between new energy vehicles and conventional gasoline based vehicles under two electricity mix scenarios. In power sector, wind power and PV power will be cost comparative in 2030 forecasted with learning curve method. With high subsidies, new energy cars could be comparative now, but it still has high costs to lower GHG emissions. When the government subsidy policy is reversible, the emission reduction cost for new energy vehicle consumer will be 900/ton. According to the sensitive analysis, the paper suggests that the government implement policies that allocate the cost to the whole life cycle of energy production and consumption related to transport sector energy transition and policies that are in favor of new energy vehicle consumers but not the new energy car producers.

Modeling Urban Energy Savings Scenarios Using Earth System Microclimate and Urban Morphology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allen, M. R.; Rose, A.; New, J. R.; Yuan, J.; Omitaomu, O.; Sylvester, L.; Branstetter, M. L.; Carvalhaes, T. M.; Seals, M.; Berres, A.

2017-12-01

We analyze and quantify the relationships among climatic conditions, urban morphology, population, land cover, and energy use so that these relationships can be used to inform energy-efficient urban development and planning. We integrate different approaches across three research areas: earth system modeling; impacts, adaptation and vulnerability; and urban planning in order to address three major gaps in the existing capability in these areas: i) neighborhood resolution modeling and simulation of urban micrometeorological processes and their effect on and from regional climate; ii) projections for future energy use under urbanization and climate change scenarios identifying best strategies for urban morphological development and energy savings; iii) analysis and visualization tools to help planners optimally use these projections.

Multicriteria Decision Analysis of Material Selection of High Energy Performance Residential Building

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čuláková, Monika; Vilčeková, Silvia; Katunská, Jana; Krídlová Burdová, Eva

2013-11-01

In world with limited amount of energy sources and with serious environmental pollution, interest in comparing the environmental embodied impacts of buildings using different structure systems and alternative building materials will be increased. This paper shows the significance of life cycle energy and carbon perspective and the material selection in reducing energy consumption and emissions production in the built environment. The study evaluates embodied environmental impacts of nearly zero energy residential structures. The environmental assessment uses framework of LCA within boundary: cradle to gate. Designed alternative scenarios of material compositions are also assessed in terms of energy effectiveness through selected thermal-physical parameters. This study uses multi-criteria decision analysis for making clearer selection between alternative scenarios. The results of MCDA show that alternative E from materials on nature plant base (wood, straw bales, massive wood panel) present possible way to sustainable perspective of nearly zero energy houses in Slovak republic

Atmospheric energy and water balance perspective to projection of global-scale precipitation increase: may mitigation policies unexpectedly amplify precipitation?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alessandri, A.; Fogli, P.; Vichi, M.; Zeng, N.

2012-12-01

Future climate scenarios experiencing global warming are expected to strengthen hydrological cycle during 21st century by comparison with the last decades of 20th century. From the perspective of changes in whole atmospheric water and energy budgets, we analyze strengthening of the hydrological cycle as measured by the increase in global-scale precipitation. Furthermore, by combining energy and water equations for the whole atmosphere we profitably obtain constraints for the changes in surface fluxes and for the partitioning at the surface between sensible and latent components. Above approach is applied to investigate difference in precipitation increase in two scenario centennial simulations performed with an Earth System model forced with specified atmospheric concentration pathways. Alongside medium-high non-mitigation scenario (baseline), we considered an aggressive-mitigation scenario (E1) with reduced fossil fuel use for energy production aimed at stabilizing global warming below 2K. Quite unexpectedly, mitigation scenario is shown to strengthen hydrological cycle more than baseline till around 2070, that is a couple of decades after that mitigation of global temperature was already well established in E1. Our analysis shows that this is mostly a consequence of the larger increase in the negative radiative imbalance of atmosphere in E1 compared to baseline. This appears to be primarily related to the abated aerosol concentration in E1, which considerably reduces atmospheric absorption of solar radiation compared to baseline. In contrast, last decades of 21st century (21C) show marked increase of global precipitation in baseline compared to E1, despite the fact that the two scenarios display almost same overall increase of radiative imbalance with respect to 20th century. Our results show that radiative cooling is weakly effective in baseline throughout all 21C, so that two distinct mechanisms characterize the diverse strengthening of hydrological cycle in

EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

2008-12-01

worked to bring the experience generated from over four decades of scenario development in other issue domains, including energy and security, to bear on environmental scenarios, and to bring into dialogue scenario practitioners, both producers and users, with social science scholars. The set of contributions to this focus issue of Environmental Research Letters arose out of this workshop and collectively examines key challenges facing the scenario community, synthesizes lessons, and offers recommendations for new research and practice in this field. One theme that emerged in many of the discussions at the workshop revolved around the distinction between two broad perspectives on the goals of scenario exercises: scenarios as products and scenarios as processes. Most global environmental change scenario exercises are product-oriented; the content of the scenarios developed is the main goal of many participants and those who commission or organize the scenario development process. Typically, what is of most interest are the environmental outcomes produced, how they relate to the various factors driving them, and what the results tell us about the prospects for future environmental change, for impacts, and for mitigation. A product-oriented perspective assumes that once produced, scenario products have lives of their own, divorced from the processes that generated them and able to serve multiple, often unspecified purposes. Thus, it is often assumed that the scenario products can be 'taken up' by a variety of users in a variety of fora. A contrasting scenario approach is process-oriented and self-consciously privileges the process of scenario development as the primary goal, for example as a means to motivate organizational learning, find commonalities across different perspectives, achieve consensus on goals, or come to a shared understanding of challenges. Focusing on scenarios as processes highlights the social contexts in which scenarios are created and used. Process

ENERGY AND OUR ENVIRONMENT: A SYSTEMS AND LIFE CYCLE PERSPECTIVE

EPA Science Inventory

This is a presentation to the North Carolina BREATE Conference on March 28, 2017. This presentation provides an overview of energy modeling capabilities in ORD, and includes examples related to scenario development, water-energy nexus, bioenergy, etc. The focus is on system ap...

[Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

PubMed

Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

2013-05-01

It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

DOE PAGES

Guneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Urge-Vorsatz, Diana; ...

2017-01-09

Here, urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most ofmore » this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana

2017-01-09

Urban areas play a significant role in planetary sustainability. While the scale of impending urbanization is well acknowledged, we have a limited understanding on how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use, specifically, for heating and cooling. We also assess associated cobenefits and trade-offs with human well-being. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by midcentury will reach anywhere from about 45 EJ/yr to 59 EJ/yr (respectively, increases of 5% to 40% over the 2010 estimate). Most of thismore » variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban forms of rapidly growing cities in Asia and, particularly, in China. Compact urban development overall leads to less energy use in urban environments. Delaying the retrofit of the existing built environment leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in the energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared to the business-as-usual scenario in energy use for heating and cooling in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contribute to energy savings in North America and Europe. A systemic effort that focuses on both urban form and energy-efficient technologies, but also accounts for potential co-benefits and trade-offs, can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in mega-urban regions, such efforts can improve local environments for billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas and associated greenhouse gas emissions.« less

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050.

PubMed

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C

2017-08-22

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7-40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas.

Global scenarios of urban density and its impacts on building energy use through 2050

PubMed Central

Güneralp, Burak; Zhou, Yuyu; Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana; Gupta, Mukesh; Yu, Sha; Patel, Pralit L.; Fragkias, Michail; Li, Xiaoma; Seto, Karen C.

2017-01-01

Although the scale of impending urbanization is well-acknowledged, we have a limited understanding of how urban forms will change and what their impact will be on building energy use. Using both top-down and bottom-up approaches and scenarios, we examine building energy use for heating and cooling. Globally, the energy use for heating and cooling by the middle of the century will be between 45 and 59 exajoules per year (corresponding to an increase of 7–40% since 2010). Most of this variability is due to the uncertainty in future urban densities of rapidly growing cities in Asia and particularly China. Dense urban development leads to less urban energy use overall. Waiting to retrofit the existing built environment until markets are ready in about 5 years to widely deploy the most advanced renovation technologies leads to more savings in building energy use. Potential for savings in energy use is greatest in China when coupled with efficiency gains. Advanced efficiency makes the least difference compared with the business-as-usual scenario in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa but significantly contributes to energy savings in North America and Europe. Systemic efforts that focus on both urban form, of which urban density is an indicator, and energy-efficient technologies, but that also account for potential co-benefits and trade-offs with human well-being can contribute to both local and global sustainability. Particularly in growing cities in the developing world, such efforts can improve the well-being of billions of urban residents and contribute to mitigating climate change by reducing energy use in urban areas. PMID:28069957

Synthetic fuels development in Kentucky: Four scenarios for an energy future as constructed from lessons of the past

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musulin, Mike, II

The continued failure of synthetic fuels development in the United States to achieve commercialization has been documented through the sporadic periods of mounting corporate and government enthusiasm and high levels of research and development efforts. Four periods of enthusiasm at the national level were followed by waning intervals of shrinking financial support and sagging R&D work. The continuing cycle of mobilization and stagnation has had a corresponding history in Kentucky. To better understand the potential and the pitfalls of this type of technological development the history of synthetic fuels development in the United States is presented as background, with a more detailed analysis of synfuels development in Kentucky. The first two periods of interest in synthetic fuels immediately after the Second World War and in the 1950s did not result in any proposed plants for Kentucky, but the third and fourth periods of interest created a great deal of activity. A theoretically grounded case study is utilized in this research project to create four different scenarios for the future of synthetic fuels development. The Kentucky experience is utilized in this case study because a fifth incarnation of synthetic fuels development has been proposed for the state in the form of an integrated gasification combined cycle power plant (IGCC) to utilize coal and refuse derived fuel (RDF). The project has been awarded a grant from the U.S. Department of Energy Clean Coal Technology program. From an examination and analysis of these periods of interest and the subsequent dwindling of interest and participation, four alternative scenarios are constructed. A synfuels breakthrough scenario is described whereby IGCC becomes a viable part of the country's energy future. A multiplex scenario describes how IGCC becomes a particular niche in energy production. The status quo scenario describes how the old patterns of project failure repeat themselves. The fourth scenario describes

Scenarios for low carbon and low water electric power plant ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

In the water-energy nexus, water use for the electric power sector is critical. Currently, the operational phase of electric power production dominates the electric sector's life cycle withdrawal and consumption of fresh water resources. Water use associated with the fuel cycle and power plant equipment manufacturing phase is substantially lower on a life cycle basis. An outstanding question is: how do regional shifts to lower carbon electric power mixes affect the relative contribution of the upstream life cycle water use? To test this, we examine a range of scenarios comparing a baseline with scenarios of carbon reduction and water use constraints using the MARKet ALlocation (MARKAL) energy systems model with ORD's 2014 U.S. 9-region database (EPAUS9r). The results suggest that moving toward a low carbon and low water electric power mix may increase the non-operational water use. In particular, power plant manufacturing water use for concentrating solar power, and fuel cycle water use for biomass feedstock, could see sharp increases under scenarios of high deployment of these low carbon options. Our analysis addresses the following questions. First, how does moving to a lower carbon electricity generation mix affect the overall regional electric power water use from a life cycle perspective? Second, how does constraining the operational water use for power plants affect the mix, if at all? Third, how does the life cycle water use differ among regions under

Running of the spectral index in deformed matter bounce scenarios with Hubble-rate-dependent dark energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arab, M.; Khodam-Mohammadi, A.

2018-03-01

As a deformed matter bounce scenario with a dark energy component, we propose a deformed one with running vacuum model (RVM) in which the dark energy density ρ _{Λ } is written as a power series of H^2 and \\dot{H} with a constant equation of state parameter, same as the cosmological constant, w=-1. Our results in analytical and numerical point of views show that in some cases same as Λ CDM bounce scenario, although the spectral index may achieve a good consistency with observations, a positive value of running of spectral index (α _s) is obtained which is not compatible with inflationary paradigm where it predicts a small negative value for α _s. However, by extending the power series up to H^4, ρ _{Λ }=n_0+n_2 H^2+n_4 H^4, and estimating a set of consistent parameters, we obtain the spectral index n_s, a small negative value of running α _s and tensor to scalar ratio r, which these reveal a degeneracy between deformed matter bounce scenario with RVM-DE and inflationary cosmology.

The implications of renewable energy research and development: Policy scenario analysis with experience and learning effects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kobos, Peter Holmes

This dissertation analyzes the current and potential future costs of renewable energy technology from an institutional perspective. The central hypothesis is that reliable technology cost forecasting can be achieved through standard and modified experience curves implemented in a dynamic simulation model. Additionally, drawing upon region-specific institutional lessons highlights the role of market, social, and political institutions throughout an economy. Socio-political influences and government policy pathways drive resource allocation decisions that may be predominately influenced by factors other than those considered in a traditional market-driven, mechanistic approach. Learning in economic systems as a research topic is an attractive complement to the notion of institutional pathways. The economic implications of learning by doing, as first outlined by Arrow (1962), highlight decreasing production costs as individuals, or more generally the firm, become more familiar with a production process. The standard approach in the literature has been to employ a common experience curve where cumulative production is the only independent variable affecting costs. This dissertation develops a two factor experience curve, adding research, development and demonstration (RD&D) expenditures as a second variable. To illustrate the concept in the context of energy planning, two factor experience curves are developed for wind energy technology and solar photovoltaic (PV) modules under different assumptions on learning rates for cumulative capacity and the knowledge stock (a function of past RD&D efforts). Additionally, a one factor experience curve and cost trajectory scenarios are developed for concentrated solar power and geothermal energy technology, respectively. Cost forecasts are then developed for all four of these technologies in a dynamic simulation model. Combining the theoretical framework of learning by doing with the fields of organizational learning and

Perspectives on energy storage wheels for space station application

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oglevie, R. E.

1984-01-01

Several of the issues of the workshop are addressed from the perspective of a potential Space Station developer and energy wheel user. Systems' considerations are emphasized rather than component technology. The potential of energy storage wheel (ESW) concept is discussed. The current status of the technology base is described. Justification for advanced technology development is also discussed. The study concludes that energy storage in wheels is an attractive concept for immediate technology development and future Space Station application.

Implications of the pseudo-Dirac scenario for ultra high energy neutrinos from GRBs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Esmaili, Arman; Farzan, Yasaman, E-mail: aesmaili@ifi.unicamp.br, E-mail: yasaman@theory.ipm.ac.ir

2012-12-01

The source of Ultra High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECR) is still an unresolved mystery. Up until recently, sources of Gamma Ray Bursts (GRBs) had been considered as a suitable source for UHECR. Within the fireball model, the UHECR produced at GRBs should be accompanied with a neutrino flux detectable at the neutrino telescope such as IceCube. Recently, IceCube has set an upper bound on the neutrino flux accompanied by GRBs about 3.7 times below the prediction. We investigate whether this deficit can be explained by the oscillation of the active neutrinos to sterile neutrinos en route from the source tomore » the detectors within the pseudo-Dirac scenario. We then discuss the implication of this scenario for diffuse supernova relic neutrinos.« less

New perspectives in offshore wind energy

PubMed Central

Failla, Giuseppe; Arena, Felice

2015-01-01

The design of offshore wind turbines is one of the most fascinating challenges in renewable energy. Meeting the objective of increasing power production with reduced installation and maintenance costs requires a multi-disciplinary approach, bringing together expertise in different fields of engineering. The purpose of this theme issue is to offer a broad perspective on some crucial aspects of offshore wind turbines design, discussing the state of the art and presenting recent theoretical and experimental studies. PMID:25583869

Severe accidents in the energy sector: comparative perspective.

PubMed

Hirschberg, Stefan; Burgherr, Peter; Spiekerman, Gerard; Dones, Roberto

2004-07-26

This paper addresses one of the controversial issues in the current comparative studies of the environmental and health impacts of energy systems, i.e. the treatment of severe accidents. The work covers technical aspects of severe accidents and thus primarily reflects an engineering perspective on the energy-related risk issues, though some social implications are also touched upon. The assessment concerns fossil energy sources (coal, oil and gas), nuclear power and hydro power. The scope is not limited to the power production (conversion) step of these energy chains but, whenever applicable, also includes exploration, extraction, transports, processing, storage and waste disposal. With the exception of the nuclear chain the focus of the work has been on the evaluation of the historical experience of accidents. The basis used for this evaluation is a comprehensive database ENSAD (Energy-related Severe Accident Database), established by the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI). For hypothetical nuclear accidents the probabilistic technique has also been employed and extended to cover the assessment of economic consequences of such accidents. The broader picture obtained by coverage of full energy chains leads on the world-wide basis to aggregated immediate fatality rates being much higher for the fossil chains than what one would expect if only power plants were considered. Generally, the immediate fatality rates are for all considered energy carriers significantly higher for the non-OECD countries than for OECD countries. In the case of hydro and nuclear the difference is in fact dramatic. The presentation of results is not limited to the aggregated values specific for each energy chain. Also frequency-consequence curves are provided. They reflect implicitly the ranking based on the aggregated values but include also such information as the observed or predicted chain-specific maximum extents of damages. This perspective on severe accidents may lead to different system

Evaluating the use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage in low emission scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair; Mander, Sarah; Littleton, Emma W.; Welfle, Andrew; Gernaat, David E. H. J.; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2018-04-01

Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) is heavily relied upon in scenarios of future emissions that are consistent with limiting global mean temperature increase to 1.5 °C or 2 °C above pre-industrial. These temperature limits are defined in the Paris Agreement in order to reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. Here, we explore the use of BECCS technologies in a reference scenario and three low emission scenarios generated by an integrated assessment model (IMAGE). Using these scenarios we investigate the feasibility of key implicit and explicit assumptions about these BECCS technologies, including biomass resource, land use, CO2 storage capacity and carbon capture and storage (CCS) deployment rate. In these scenarios, we find that half of all global CO2 storage required by 2100 occurs in USA, Western Europe, China and India, which is compatible with current estimates of regional CO2 storage capacity. CCS deployment rates in the scenarios are very challenging compared to historical rates of fossil, renewable or nuclear technologies and are entirely dependent on stringent policy action to incentivise CCS. In the scenarios, half of the biomass resource is derived from agricultural and forestry residues and half from dedicated bioenergy crops grown on abandoned agricultural land and expansion into grasslands (i.e. land for forests and food production is protected). Poor governance of the sustainability of bioenergy crop production can significantly limit the amount of CO2 removed by BECCS, through soil carbon loss from direct and indirect land use change. Only one-third of the bioenergy crops are grown in regions associated with more developed governance frameworks. Overall, the scenarios in IMAGE are ambitious but consistent with current relevant literature with respect to assumed biomass resource, land use and CO2 storage capacity.

Evolution of the US energy system and related emissions under varying social and technological development paradigms: Plausible scenarios for use in robust decision making.

PubMed

Brown, Kristen E; Hottle, Troy Alan; Bandyopadhyay, Rubenka; Babaee, Samaneh; Dodder, Rebecca Susanne; Kaplan, Pervin Ozge; Lenox, Carol; Loughlin, Dan

2018-06-21

The energy system is the primary source of air pollution. Thus, evolution of the energy system into the future will affect society's ability to maintain air quality. Anticipating this evolution is difficult because of inherent uncertainty in predicting future energy demand, fuel use, and technology adoption. We apply Scenario Planning to address this uncertainty, developing four very different visions of the future. Stakeholder engagement suggested technological progress and social attitudes toward the environment are critical and uncertain factors for determining future emissions. Combining transformative and static assumptions about these factors yields a matrix of four scenarios that encompass a wide range of outcomes. We implement these scenarios in the U.S. EPA MARKAL model. Results suggest that both shifting attitudes and technology transformation may lead to emission reductions relative to present, even without additional policies. Emission caps, such as the Cross State Air Pollution Rule, are most effective at protecting against future emission increases. An important outcome of this work is the scenario implementation approach, which uses technology-specific discount rates to encourage scenario-specific technology and fuel choices. End-use energy demands are modified to approximate societal changes. This implementation allows the model to respond to perturbations in manners consistent with each scenario.

Mid-Twenty-First-Century Changes in Global Wave Energy Flux: Single-Model, Single-Forcing and Single-Scenario Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Semedo, Alvaro; Lemos, Gil; Dobrynin, Mikhail; Behrens, Arno; Staneva, Joanna; Miranda, Pedro

2017-04-01

The knowledge of ocean surface wave energy fluxes (or wave power) is of outmost relevance since wave power has a direct impact in coastal erosion, but also in sediment transport and beach nourishment, and ship, as well as in coastal and offshore infrastructures design. Changes in the global wave energy flux pattern can alter significantly the impact of waves in continental shelf and coastal areas. Up until recently the impact of climate change in future global wave climate had received very little attention. Some single model single scenario global wave climate projections, based on CMIP3 scenarios, were pursuit under the auspices of the COWCLIP (coordinated ocean wave climate projections) project, and received some attention in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change) AR5 (fifth assessment report). In the present study the impact of a warmer climate in the near future global wave energy flux climate is investigated through a 4-member "coherent" ensemble of wave climate projections: single-model, single-forcing, and single-scenario. In this methodology model variability is reduced, leaving only room for the climate change signal. The four ensemble members were produced with the wave model WAM, forced with wind speed and ice coverage from EC-Earth projections, following the representative concentration pathway with a high emissions scenario 8.5 (RCP8.5). The ensemble present climate reference period (the control run) has been set for 1976 to 2005. The projected changes in the global wave energy flux climate are analyzed for the 2031-2060 period.

The Extent to Which Different 100% Clean, Renewable Energy Transition Scenarios can Reduce World Carbon Dioxide Levels to 350-400 ppmv by 2100

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobson, M. Z.; Byrne, J. M.

2016-12-01

Future levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) depend on CO2's natural and anthropogenic emission rates and its removal rates by primarily water dissolution, photosysnthesis, and weathering. We compare modeled past CO2 from 1750 to 2015 with data then model projected future changes in CO2 under different energy emission scenarios, including two where 100% of the world's all-purpose energy (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry, and agriculture/forestry/fishing) is electrified, and the electricity is powered by wind, water, and sunlight (WWS). The scenarios are derived from country-by-country energy roadmaps found at http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html. In one 100% scenario, 80% of the conversion is assumed to occur by 2030 and 100%, by 2050. In the second, 80% is assumed to occur by 2050, and the rest by 2100. We also compare with an unrealistic but best-case 100% conversion scenario starting in 2015 and IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, B1, B2, and A1F1. Results will be shown, and conclusions, drawn about the practicality of reducing CO2 to 350-400 ppmv by 2100. These results have significant impact on current and future energy policy.

Comparing environmental consequences of anaerobic mono- and co-digestion of pig manure to produce bio-energy--a life cycle perspective.

PubMed

De Vries, J W; Vinken, T M W J; Hamelin, L; De Boer, I J M

2012-12-01

The aim of this work was to assess the environmental consequences of anaerobic mono- and co-digestion of pig manure to produce bio-energy, from a life cycle perspective. This included assessing environmental impacts and land use change emissions (LUC) required to replace used co-substrates for anaerobic digestion. Environmental impact categories considered were climate change, terrestrial acidification, marine and freshwater eutrophication, particulate matter formation, land use, and fossil fuel depletion. Six scenarios were evaluated: mono-digestion of manure, co-digestion with: maize silage, maize silage and glycerin, beet tails, wheat yeast concentrate (WYC), and roadside grass. Mono-digestion reduced most impacts, but represented a limited source for bio-energy. Co-digestion with maize silage, beet tails, and WYC (competing with animal feed), and glycerin increased bio-energy production (up to 568%), but at expense of increasing climate change (through LUC), marine eutrophication, and land use. Co-digestion with wastes or residues like roadside grass gave the best environmental performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating experimental and numerical methods for a scenario-based quantitative assessment of subsurface energy storage options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kabuth, Alina; Dahmke, Andreas; Hagrey, Said Attia al; Berta, Márton; Dörr, Cordula; Koproch, Nicolas; Köber, Ralf; Köhn, Daniel; Nolde, Michael; Tilmann Pfeiffer, Wolf; Popp, Steffi; Schwanebeck, Malte; Bauer, Sebastian

2016-04-01

Within the framework of the transition to renewable energy sources ("Energiewende"), the German government defined the target of producing 60 % of the final energy consumption from renewable energy sources by the year 2050. However, renewable energies are subject to natural fluctuations. Energy storage can help to buffer the resulting time shifts between production and demand. Subsurface geological structures provide large potential capacities for energy stored in the form of heat or gas on daily to seasonal time scales. In order to explore this potential sustainably, the possible induced effects of energy storage operations have to be quantified for both specified normal operation and events of failure. The ANGUS+ project therefore integrates experimental laboratory studies with numerical approaches to assess subsurface energy storage scenarios and monitoring methods. Subsurface storage options for gas, i.e. hydrogen, synthetic methane and compressed air in salt caverns or porous structures, as well as subsurface heat storage are investigated with respect to site prerequisites, storage dimensions, induced effects, monitoring methods and integration into spatial planning schemes. The conceptual interdisciplinary approach of the ANGUS+ project towards the integration of subsurface energy storage into a sustainable subsurface planning scheme is presented here, and this approach is then demonstrated using the examples of two selected energy storage options: Firstly, the option of seasonal heat storage in a shallow aquifer is presented. Coupled thermal and hydraulic processes induced by periodic heat injection and extraction were simulated in the open-source numerical modelling package OpenGeoSys. Situations of specified normal operation as well as cases of failure in operational storage with leaking heat transfer fluid are considered. Bench-scale experiments provided parameterisations of temperature dependent changes in shallow groundwater hydrogeochemistry. As a

Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

2018-04-01

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy... REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion Standard § 63.322 Human intrusion scenario. For the purposes of the analysis of human intrusion, DOE must...

Life Cycle Assessment of Mixed Municipal Solid Waste: Multi-input versus multi-output perspective.

PubMed

Fiorentino, G; Ripa, M; Protano, G; Hornsby, C; Ulgiati, S

2015-12-01

This paper analyses four strategies for managing the Mixed Municipal Solid Waste (MMSW) in terms of their environmental impacts and potential advantages by means of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodology. To this aim, both a multi-input and a multi-output approach are applied to evaluate the effect of these perspectives on selected impact categories. The analyzed management options include direct landfilling with energy recovery (S-1), Mechanical-Biological Treatment (MBT) followed by Waste-to-Energy (WtE) conversion (S-2), a combination of an innovative MBT/MARSS (Material Advanced Recovery Sustainable Systems) process and landfill disposal (S-3), and finally a combination of the MBT/MARSS process with WtE conversion (S-4). The MARSS technology, developed within an European LIFE PLUS framework and currently implemented at pilot plant scale, is an innovative MBT plant having the main goal to yield a Renewable Refined Biomass Fuel (RRBF) to be used for combined heat and power production (CHP) under the regulations enforced for biomass-based plants instead of Waste-to-Energy systems, for increased environmental performance. The four scenarios are characterized by different resource investment for plant and infrastructure construction and different quantities of matter, heat and electricity recovery and recycling. Results, calculated per unit mass of waste treated and per unit exergy delivered, under both multi-input and multi-output LCA perspectives, point out improved performance for scenarios characterized by increased matter and energy recovery. Although none of the investigated scenarios is capable to provide the best performance in all the analyzed impact categories, the scenario S-4 shows the best LCA results in the human toxicity and freshwater eutrophication categories, i.e. the ones with highest impacts in all waste management processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

New perspectives in offshore wind energy.

PubMed

Failla, Giuseppe; Arena, Felice

2015-02-28

The design of offshore wind turbines is one of the most fascinating challenges in renewable energy. Meeting the objective of increasing power production with reduced installation and maintenance costs requires a multi-disciplinary approach, bringing together expertise in different fields of engineering. The purpose of this theme issue is to offer a broad perspective on some crucial aspects of offshore wind turbines design, discussing the state of the art and presenting recent theoretical and experimental studies. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A long-term, integrated impact assessment of alternative building energy code scenarios in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yu, Sha; Eom, Jiyong; Evans, Meredydd

2014-04-01

China is the second largest building energy user in the world, ranking first and third in residential and commercial energy consumption. Beginning in the early 1980s, the Chinese government has developed a variety of building energy codes to improve building energy efficiency and reduce total energy demand. This paper studies the impact of building energy codes on energy use and CO2 emissions by using a detailed building energy model that represents four distinct climate zones each with three building types, nested in a long-term integrated assessment framework GCAM. An advanced building stock module, coupled with the building energy model, ismore » developed to reflect the characteristics of future building stock and its interaction with the development of building energy codes in China. This paper also evaluates the impacts of building codes on building energy demand in the presence of economy-wide carbon policy. We find that building energy codes would reduce Chinese building energy use by 13% - 22% depending on building code scenarios, with a similar effect preserved even under the carbon policy. The impact of building energy codes shows regional and sectoral variation due to regionally differentiated responses of heating and cooling services to shell efficiency improvement.« less

Including the temporal change in PM{sub 2.5} concentration in the assessment of human health impact: Illustration with renewable energy scenarios to 2050

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gschwind, Benoit, E-mail: benoit.gschwind@mines-paristech.fr; Lefevre, Mireille, E-mail: mireille.lefevre@mines-paristech.fr; Blanc, Isabelle, E-mail: isabelle.blanc@mines-paristech.fr

This article proposes a new method to assess the health impact of populations exposed to fine particles (PM{sub 2.5}) during their whole lifetime, which is suitable for comparative analysis of energy scenarios. The method takes into account the variation of particle concentrations over time as well as the evolution of population cohorts. Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050: the Baseline (BL) and the Low Carbon, Maximum Renewable Power (LC-MRP). These pathways were combined with three sets of assumptions about emission control measures: Current Legislation (CLE), Fixed Emission Factors (FEFs), and themore » Maximum Technically Feasible Reductions (MTFRs). Analysis was carried out for 45 European countries. Average PM{sub 2.5} concentration over Europe in the LC-MRP/CLE scenario is reduced by 58% compared with the BL/FEF case. Health impacts (expressed in days of loss of life expectancy) decrease by 21%. For the LC-MRP/MTFR scenario the average PM{sub 2.5} concentration is reduced by 85% and the health impact by 34%. The methodology was developed within the framework of the EU's FP7 EnerGEO project and was implemented in the Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). The Platform enables performing health impact assessments for various energy scenarios. - Highlights: • A new method to assess health impact of PM{sub 2.5} for energy scenarios is proposed. • An algorithm to compute Loss of Life Expectancy attributable to exposure to PM{sub 2.5} is depicted. • Its capabilities are demonstrated for two pathways of European energy system development up to 2050. • Integrating the temporal evolution of PM{sub 2.5} is of great interest for assessing the potential impacts of energy scenarios.« less

Building application of solar energy. Study no. 4: Scenarios for the utilization of solar energy in southern California buildings, change 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, E. S.; French, R. L.; Hirshberg, A. S.

1976-01-01

Plausible future market scenarios for solar heating and cooling systems into buildings in the area served by the Southern California Edison Company. A range of plausible estimates for the number of solar systems which might be installed and the electrical energy which might be displaced by energy from these systems are provided. The effect on peak electrical load was not explicitly calculated but preliminary conclusions concerning peak load can be inferred from the estimates presented. Two markets are investigated: the single family market and the large power commercial market.

Annual Technology Baseline and Standard Scenarios | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

electric sector analysis in the United States. NREL analysts consistently apply the products of this work Scenarios Annual Report and A U.S. Electric Sector Outlook - This annual report presents an outlook of the U.S. electricity sector based on a suite of standard scenarios with their associated assumptions

Emissions Scenarios and Fossil-fuel Peaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecha, R.

2008-12-01

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios are based on detailed energy system models in which demographics, technology and economics are used to generate projections of future world energy consumption, and therefore, of greenhouse gas emissions. Built into the assumptions for these scenarios are estimates for ultimately recoverable resources of various fossil fuels. There is a growing chorus of critics who believe that the true extent of recoverable fossil resources is much smaller than the amounts taken as a baseline for the IPCC scenarios. In a climate optimist camp are those who contend that "peak oil" will lead to a switch to renewable energy sources, while others point out that high prices for oil caused by supply limitations could very well lead to a transition to liquid fuels that actually increase total carbon emissions. We examine a third scenario in which high energy prices, which are correlated with increasing infrastructure, exploration and development costs, conspire to limit the potential for making a switch to coal or natural gas for liquid fuels. In addition, the same increasing costs limit the potential for expansion of tar sand and shale oil recovery. In our qualitative model of the energy system, backed by data from short- and medium-term trends, we have a useful way to gain a sense of potential carbon emission bounds. A bound for 21st century emissions is investigated based on two assumptions: first, that extractable fossil-fuel resources follow the trends assumed by "peak oil" adherents, and second, that little is done in the way of climate mitigation policies. If resources, and perhaps more importantly, extraction rates, of fossil fuels are limited compared to assumptions in the emissions scenarios, a situation can arise in which emissions are supply-driven. However, we show that even in this "peak fossil-fuel" limit, carbon emissions are high enough to surpass 550 ppm or 2°C climate protection guardrails. Some

Scenario Planning to Identify Science Needs for the Management of Energy and Resource Development in the Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lassuy, D.

2013-12-01

The North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) is an intergovernmental science collaboration forum in Arctic Alaska (USA). NSSI has initiated a 'Scenario Planning' effort with the focal question: 'What is the future of energy development, resource extraction, and associated support activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas through 2040?' With over 500 thousand square kilometers of land and sea, the area of the North Slope and adjacent seas is believed to have some of the largest oil, gas, and coal potential remaining in the United States, but it is also home to a diverse array of fish, wildlife, and plant resources that support a vibrant subsistence culture. Our scenario planning will involve a full and collaborative dialogue among a wide range of U.S. Arctic stakeholders, including Alaska Native subsistence users, local communities, academia, non-governmental organizations, and a variety of industries (oil and gas, mining, transportation, etc.) and government agencies (federal, state, local). The formulation of development scenarios and an understanding of their implications will provide a practical context for NSSI member agencies to make informed decisions about the research and monitoring that will be needed to sustain these resources and to plan for safe energy and resource development in the face of impending changes. The future of Arctic America is difficult to accurately predict, particularly in an era of intense pressures from both energy development and climate warming. However, it will almost surely be characterized by highly consequential and unprecedented changes. Complex and uncertain are appropriate descriptors of the Arctic and its future; and scenario planning has proven an effective tool to help engage diverse stakeholders in a focused dialogue and systematic thinking about plausible futures in complex and uncertain settings. The NSSI leadership recognized the critical need for this dialogue and has begun a scenario planning effort for the North

India Energy Outlook: End Use Demand in India to 2020

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de la Rue du Can, Stephane; McNeil, Michael; Sathaye, Jayant

Integrated economic models have been used to project both baseline and mitigation greenhouse gas emissions scenarios at the country and the global level. Results of these scenarios are typically presented at the sectoral level such as industry, transport, and buildings without further disaggregation. Recently, a keen interest has emerged on constructing bottom up scenarios where technical energy saving potentials can be displayed in detail (IEA, 2006b; IPCC, 2007; McKinsey, 2007). Analysts interested in particular technologies and policies, require detailed information to understand specific mitigation options in relation to business-as-usual trends. However, the limit of information available for developing countries oftenmore » poses a problem. In this report, we have focus on analyzing energy use in India in greater detail. Results shown for the residential and transport sectors are taken from a previous report (de la Rue du Can, 2008). A complete picture of energy use with disaggregated levels is drawn to understand how energy is used in India and to offer the possibility to put in perspective the different sources of end use energy consumption. For each sector, drivers of energy and technology are indentified. Trends are then analyzed and used to project future growth. Results of this report provide valuable inputs to the elaboration of realistic energy efficiency scenarios.« less

Vehicle lightweighting energy use impacts in U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Das, Sujit; Graziano, Diane; Upadhyayula, Venkata K. K.

In this article, we estimate the potential energy benefits of lightweighting the light-duty vehicle fleet from both vehicle manufacturing and use perspectives using plausible lightweight vehicle designs involving several alternative lightweight materials, low- and high-end estimates of vehicle manufacturing energy, conventional and alternative powertrains, and two different market penetration scenarios for alternative powertrain light-duty vehicles at the fleet level. Cumulative life cycle energy savings (through 2050) across the nine material scenarios based on the conventional powertrain in the U.S. vehicle fleet range from -29 to 94 billion GJ, with the greatest savings achieved by multi-material vehicles that select different lightweightmore » materials to meet specific design purposes. Lightweighting alternative-powertrain vehicles could produce significant energy savings in the U.S. vehicle fleet, although their improved powertrain efficiencies lessen the energy savings opportunities for lightweighting. A maximum level of cumulative energy savings of lightweighting the U.S. light-duty vehicle through 2050 is estimated to be 66.1billion GJ under the conventional-vehicle dominated business-as-usual penetration scenario.« less

Biomethane production system: Energetic analysis of various scenarios.

PubMed

Wu, Bin; Zhang, Xiangping; Bao, Di; Xu, Yajing; Zhang, Suojiang; Deng, Liyuan

2016-04-01

The energy consumption models of biomethane production system were established, which are more rigorous and universal than the empirical data reported by previous biomethane system energetic assessment work. The energy efficiencies of different scenarios considering factors such as two digestion modes, two heating modes of digester, with or without heat exchange between slurry and feedstock, and four crude biogas upgrading technologies were evaluated. Results showed the scenario employing thermophilic digestion and high pressure water scrubbing technology, with heat exchange between feedstock and slurry, and heat demand of digester supplied by the energy source outside the system has the highest energy efficiency (46.5%) and lowest energy consumption (13.46 MJth/Nm(3) CH4), while scenario employing mesophilic digestion and pressure swing adsorption technology, without heat exchange and heat demand of digester supplied by combusting the biogas produced inside the system has the lowest energy efficiency (15.8%) and highest energy consumption (34.90 MJth/Nm(3) CH4). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Grid of the Future: Quantification of Benefits from Flexible Energy Resources in Scenarios With Extra-High Penetration of Renewable Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bebic, Jovan; Hinkle, Gene; Matic, Slobodan

2015-01-15

The main objective of this study is to quantify the entitlement for system benefits attainable by pervasive application of flexible energy resources in scenarios with extra-high penetration of renewable energy. The quantified benefits include savings in thermal energy and reduction of CO 2 emissions. Both are primarily a result of displacement of conventional thermal generation by renewable energy production, but there are secondary improvements that arise from lowering operating reserves, removing transmission constraints, and by partially removing energy-delivery losses due to energy production by distributed solar. The flexible energy resources in the context of this study include energy storage andmore » adjustable loads. The flexibility of both was constrained to a time horizon of one day. In case of energy storage this means that the state of charge is restored to the starting value at the end of each day, while for load this means that the daily energy consumed is maintained constant. The extra-high penetration of renewable energy in the context of this study means the level of penetration resulting in significant number of hours where instantaneous power output from renewable resources added to the power output from baseload nuclear fleet surpasses the instantaneous power consumption by the load.« less

Scenario analysis of carbon emissions' anti-driving effect on Qingdao's energy structure adjustment with an optimization model, Part II: Energy system planning and management.

PubMed

Wu, C B; Huang, G H; Liu, Z P; Zhen, J L; Yin, J G

2017-03-01

In this study, an inexact multistage stochastic mixed-integer programming (IMSMP) method was developed for supporting regional-scale energy system planning (EPS) associated with multiple uncertainties presented as discrete intervals, probability distributions and their combinations. An IMSMP-based energy system planning (IMSMP-ESP) model was formulated for Qingdao to demonstrate its applicability. Solutions which can provide optimal patterns of energy resources generation, conversion, transmission, allocation and facility capacity expansion schemes have been obtained. The results can help local decision makers generate cost-effective energy system management schemes and gain a comprehensive tradeoff between economic objectives and environmental requirements. Moreover, taking the CO 2 emissions scenarios mentioned in Part I into consideration, the anti-driving effect of carbon emissions on energy structure adjustment was studied based on the developed model and scenario analysis. Several suggestions can be concluded from the results: (a) to ensure the smooth realization of low-carbon and sustainable development, appropriate price control and fiscal subsidy on high-cost energy resources should be considered by the decision-makers; (b) compared with coal, natural gas utilization should be strongly encouraged in order to insure that Qingdao could reach the carbon discharges peak value in 2020; (c) to guarantee Qingdao's power supply security in the future, the construction of new power plants should be emphasised instead of enhancing the transmission capacity of grid infrastructure. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Understanding Water-Energy-Ecology Nexus from an Integrated Earth-Human System Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, H. Y.; Zhang, X.; Wan, W.; Zhuang, Y.; Hejazi, M. I.; Leung, L. R.

2017-12-01

Both Earth and human systems exert notable controls on streamflow and stream temperature that influence energy production and ecosystem health. An integrated water model representing river processes and reservoir regulations has been developed and coupled to a land surface model and an integrated assessment model of energy, land, water, and socioeconomics to investigate the energy-water-ecology nexus in the context of climate change and water management. Simulations driven by two climate change projections following the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 radiative forcing scenarios, with and without water management, are analyzed to evaluate the individual and combined effects of climate change and water management on streamflow and stream temperature in the U.S. The simulations revealed important impacts of climate change and water management on hydrological droughts. The simulations also revealed the dynamics of competition between changes in water demand and water availability in the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios that influence streamflow and stream temperature, with important consequences to thermoelectricity production and future survival of juvenile Salmon. The integrated water model is being implemented to the Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (ACME), a coupled Earth System Model, to enable future investigations of the energy-water-ecology nexus in the integrated Earth-Human system.

Viewing the Future of University Research Libraries through the Perspectives of Scenarios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cawthorne, Jon Edward

2013-01-01

This research highlights the scenarios that might serve as a strategic vision to describe a future beyond the current library, one which both guides provosts and creates a map for the transformation of human resources and technology in the university research libraries. The scenarios offer managerial leaders an opportunity to envision new roles…

Mapping alternative energy paths for taiwan to reach a sustainable future: An application of the leap model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei-Ming

Energy is the backbone of modern life which is highly related to national security, economic growth, and environmental protection. For Taiwan, a region having limited conventional energy resources but constructing economies and societies with high energy intensity, energy became the throat of national security and development. This dissertation explores energy solutions for Taiwan by constructing a sustainable and comprehensive energy planning framework (SCENE) and by simulating alternative energy pathways on the horizon to 2030. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning system (LEAP) is used as a platform for the energy simulation. The study models three scenarios based on the E4 (energy -- environment -- economic -- equity) perspectives. Three scenarios refer to the business-as-usual scenario (BAU), the government target scenario (GOV), and the renewable and efficiency scenario (REEE). The simulation results indicate that the most promising scenario for Taiwan is the REEE scenario, which aims to save 48.7 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of final energy consumption. It avoids USD 11.1 billion on electricity expenditure in final demand sectors. In addition, the cost of the REEE path is the lowest among all scenarios before 2020 in the electricity generation sector. In terms of global warming potential (GWP), the REEE scenario could reduce 35 percent of the GWP in the demand sectors, the lowest greenhouse gases emission in relation to all other scenarios. Based on lowest energy consumption, competitive cost, and least harm to the environment, the REEE scenario is the best option to achieve intergenerational equity. This dissertation proposes that promoting energy efficiency and utilizing renewable energy is the best strategy for Taiwan. For efficiency improvement, great energy saving potentials do exist in Taiwan so that Taiwan needs more ambitious targets, policies, and implementation mechanisms for energy efficiency enhancement to slow down and decrease

Evidence and future scenarios of a low-carbon energy transition in Central America: a case study in Nicaragua

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barido, Diego Ponce de Leon; Johnston, Josiah; Moncada, Maria V.; Callaway, Duncan; Kammen, Daniel M.

2015-10-01

The global carbon emissions budget over the next decades depends critically on the choices made by fast-growing emerging economies. Few studies exist, however, that develop country-specific energy system integration insights that can inform emerging economies in this decision-making process. High spatial- and temporal-resolution power system planning is central to evaluating decarbonization scenarios, but obtaining the required data and models can be cost prohibitive, especially for researchers in low, lower-middle income economies. Here, we use Nicaragua as a case study to highlight the importance of high-resolution open access data and modeling platforms to evaluate fuel-switching strategies and their resulting cost of power under realistic technology, policy, and cost scenarios (2014-2030). Our results suggest that Nicaragua could cost-effectively achieve a low-carbon grid (≥80%, based on non-large hydro renewable energy generation) by 2030 while also pursuing multiple development objectives. Regional cooperation (balancing) enables the highest wind and solar generation (18% and 3% by 2030, respectively), at the least cost (US127 MWh-1). Potentially risky resources (geothermal and hydropower) raise system costs but do not significantly hinder decarbonization. Oil price sensitivity scenarios suggest renewable energy to be a more cost-effective long-term investment than fuel oil, even under the assumption of prevailing cheap oil prices. Nicaragua’s options illustrate the opportunities and challenges of power system decarbonization for emerging economies, and the key role that open access data and modeling platforms can play in helping develop low-carbon transition pathways.

Water-energy nexus in the Sava River Basin: energy security in a transboundary perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, Eunice; Howells, Mark

2016-04-01

impacts of climate change under a moderate climate change projection scenario; and finally, deriving from the latter point, the cumulative impact of an increase in water demand in the agriculture sector, for irrigation. Additionally, electricity trade dynamics are compared across the different scenarios under scrutiny, as an effort to investigate the response of the regional energy systems in simulated trade conditions.

Examining the Societal Impacts of Nanotechnology through Simulation: NANO SCENARIO

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth; Toprac, Paul

2008-01-01

This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

Making Energy-Water Nexus Scenarios more Fit-for-Purpose through Better Characterization of Extremes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yetman, G.; Levy, M. A.; Chen, R. S.; Schnarr, E.

2017-12-01

Often quantitative scenarios of future trends exhibit less variability than the historic data upon which the models that generate them are based. The problem of dampened variability, which typically also entails dampened extremes, manifests both temporally and spatially. As a result, risk assessments that rely on such scenarios are in danger of producing misleading results. This danger is pronounced in nexus issues, because of the multiple dimensions of change that are relevant. We illustrate the above problem by developing alternative joint distributions of the probability of drought and of human population totals, across U.S. counties over the period 2010-2030. For the dampened-extremes case we use drought frequencies derived from climate models used in the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Environmental Protection Agency's population and land use projections contained in its Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS). For the elevated extremes case we use an alternative spatial drought frequency estimate based on tree-ring data, covering a 555-year period (Ho et al 2017); and we introduce greater temporal and spatial extremes in the ICLUS socioeconomic projections so that they conform to observed extremes in the historical U.S. spatial census data 1790-present (National Historical Geographic Information System). We use spatial and temporal coincidence of high population and extreme drought as a proxy for energy-water nexus risk. We compare the representation of risk in the dampened-extreme and elevated-extreme scenario analysis. We identify areas of the country where using more realistic portrayals of extremes makes the biggest difference in estimate risk and suggest implications for future risk assessments. References: Michelle Ho, Upmanu Lall, Xun Sun, Edward R. Cook. 2017. Multiscale temporal variability and regional patterns in 555 years of conterminous U.S. streamflow. Water Resources Research. . doi: 10.1002/2016WR019632

The Scenario of the Potential Analysis Alternative Energy in Order to Strengthening District's Energy Resilience (The Case Study in South Sumatera Province)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferry Muhrom, Muhammad; Ronny Rahman Nitibaskara, Tb; Herdiansyah, Herdis; Sari, Ravita

2017-10-01

The current development of fossil energy, which is the driving force of the economy in Indonesia, is a non-renewable energy and is in need to know when it will be exhausted so it may be replaced with renewable energy. Many powerplant systems in Indonesia are still using conventional system that utilizes fossil energy as the primary energy in the process of electricity generation. The occurrence of electrical energy crisis is marked by several electricity blackout phenomenon in some areas in South Sumatera province rotately, which is the proof that the installed power capacity has exceeded the capacity of generation power. Interconnection among several islands, namely Java Island, Sumatera Island, and Bali Island which has been interconnected with closed loop system through transmission network has not been able to overcome the electrical energy crisis. This paper aims to create alternative energy potential scenarios in the province of South Sumatera in sequence/ranking by using quantitative methods with sequential explanatory model formulated in the determination of alternative energy strategies then analyzed by using Analitycal Hierarchy Process(AHP) method. The simulation results from this research indicate that geothermal energy potentials get the highest value so that it becomes the priority of alternative energy strategy in South Sumatera Province.

Energy assessment of second generation (2G) ethanol production from wheat straw in Indian scenario.

PubMed

Mishra, Archana; Kumar, Akash; Ghosh, Sanjoy

2018-03-01

Impact of second-generation ethanol (2G) use in transportation sector mainly depends upon energy efficiency of entire production process. The objective of present study was to determine energy efficiency of a potential lignocellulosic feedstock; wheat straw and its conversion into cellulosic ethanol in Indian scenario. Energy efficiency was determined by calculating Net energy ratio (NER), i.e. ratio of output energy obtained by ethanol and input energy used in ethanol production. Energy consumption and generation at each step is calculated briefly (11,837.35 MJ/ha during Indian dwarf irrigated variety of wheat crop production and 7.1148 MJ/kg straw during ethanol production stage). Total energy consumption is calculated as 8.2988 MJ/kg straw whereas energy generation from ethanol is 15.082 MJ/kg straw; resulting into NER > 1. Major portion of agricultural energy input is contributed by diesel and fertilisers whereas refining process of wheat straw feedstock to ethanol and by-products require mainly in the form of steam and electricity. On an average, 1671.8 kg water free ethanol, 930 kg lignin rich biomass (for combustion), and 561 kg C5-molasses (for fodder) per hectare are produced. Findings of this study, net energy ratio (1.81) and figure of merit (14.8028 MJ/nil kg carbon) proves wheat straw as highest energy efficient lignocellulosic feedstock for the country.

Greenhouse gas emissions from different municipal solid waste management scenarios in China: Based on carbon and energy flow analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yili; Sun, Weixin; Liu, Jianguo

2017-10-01

Waste management is a major source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and many opportunities exist to reduce these emissions. To identify the GHG emissions from waste management in China, the characteristics of MSW and the current and future treatment management strategies, five typical management scenarios were modeled by EaseTech software following the principles of life cycle inventory and analyzed based on the carbon and energy flows. Due to the high organic fraction (50-70%) and moisture content (>50%) of Chinese municipal solid waste (MSW), the net GHG emissions in waste management had a significant difference from the developed countries. It was found that the poor landfill gas (LFG) collection efficiency and low carbon storage resulted landfilling with flaring and landfilling with biogas recovery scenarios were the largest GHG emissions (192 and 117 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively). In contrast, incineration had the best energy recovery rate (19%), and, by grid emissions substitution, led to a substantial decrease in net GHG emissions (-124 kgCO 2 -Eq/t). Due to the high energy consumption in operation, the unavoidable leakage of CH 4 and N 2 O in treatment, and the further release of CH 4 in disposing of the digested residue or composted product, the scenarios with biological treatment of the organic fractions after sorting, such as composting or anaerobic digestion (AD), did not lead to the outstanding GHG reductions (emissions of 32 and -36 kgCO 2 -Eq/t, respectively) as expected. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Using scenario analysis to determine managed care strategy.

PubMed

Krentz, S E; Gish, R S

2000-09-01

In today's volatile healthcare environment, traditional planning tools are inadequate to guide financial managers of provider organizations in developing managed care strategies. These tools often disregard the uncertainty surrounding market forces such as employee benefit structure, the future of Medicare managed care, and the impact of consumer behavior. Scenario analysis overcomes this limitation by acknowledging the uncertain healthcare environment and articulating a set of plausible alternative futures, thus supplying financial executives with the perspective to craft strategies that can improve the market position of their organizations. By being alert for trigger points that might signal the rise of a specific scenario, financial managers can increase their preparedness for changes in market forces.

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

The Standard Scenarios and this associated report, which are now in their second year, present an examination of some of the key aspects of the change occurring, or anticipated to occur, in the power sector over the next several decades. The Standard Scenarios consist of 18 power sector scenarios which have been projected using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) long-term capacity expansion model and the dGen rooftop PV diffusion model. The purpose of the Standard Scenarios and this associated report is to provide context, discussion, and data to inform stakeholder decision-making regarding the futuremore » direction of U.S. power sector. As an extension to this report, the Standard Scenario outputs are presented in a downloadable format online using the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer at http://en.openei.org/apps/reeds/. This report reflects high-level conclusions and analysis, whereas the Standard Scenarios' Results Viewer includes the scenario results that can be used for more in-depth analysis.« less

An ecological perspective of the energy basis of sustainable Bolivian natural resources: Forests and natural gas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izursa, Jose-Luis

Bolivia, traditionally known for being a country rich in natural resources, has suffered from a constant exploitation of its natural resources benefiting only small groups in and outside the country. The devastation of natural resources that occurred for many years was of concern to the latest government, rural communities and indigenous groups. As a result, Bolivia has a more sustainability-oriented forest law that has a strong orientation towards the utilization of natural resources at a national level and encompasses a fast-growing forestry industry than in previous years. In this dissertation, the wealth of Bolivia's national system was evaluated using solar emergy. Emergy (spelled with "m") is the sum of all energy of one form needed to develop a flow of energy of another form, over a period of time. The basic idea is that solar energy is our ultimate energy source and by expressing the value of products in solar emergy units, it becomes possible to compare different kinds of energy, allowing to express the value for the natural resources in Emergy Dollars. It was found out that Bolivia relies heavily in its natural resources and that its emergy exchange ratio with its international trading partners changed from 12.2 to 1 in 2001 to 6.2 to 1 in 2005. This means that Bolivia went from export 12.2 emdollars of goods for each 1 it received in 2001 to export 6.2 emdollars of products for each 1 it received in 2005. The study also showed that under forest certification practices less emergy is removed from forests (1.49E+19 sej/yr) compared to the amount of emergy removed (2.36E+19 sej/yr) under traditional uncertified practices, reflecting that forest ecology does better under certification. The "Ecologically-based Development for the Bolivian Industrial Forestry System" (DEBBIF) simulation model constructed during this study, compared four different scenarios: the Reference Scenario, the Increased Export Scenario, the Increased Domestic Use Scenario and the

Energy in perspective: an orientation conference for educators. [28 presentations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McKlveen, J.W.

An awareness of energy and the pertinent economic, environmental, and risk/benefit consideration must be presented to the public. A logical beginning point is in the classroom, through knowledgeable and motivated educators. Ms. Carolyn Warner, Superintendent of Public Instruction, State of Arizona, presented the first paper, Energy and the Educator. Papers on all aspects of energy were presented at the conference by experts from throughout the United States. The papers were: Energy Resources: World and U.S.A.; Coal Technology: Mining, Energy Generation, Wastes, and Environmental Considerations; Energy Conservation; Arizona's Energy Resources and Development; Gas and Oil: Natural Gas, S.N.G., Oil, Oil Shale,more » and Tar Sands; Geothermal Energy Perspective; Solar Energy; Solar Technology; Natural Radiation Environment; Fission Theory; Arizona's Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Complex; Gas Cooled Reactors, Liquid Metal Reactors and Alternatives; Radioactive Wastes: Disposal Alternatives; Reactor Safety; Nuclear Safeguards; Fusion Power; Genetic and Somatic Radiation Effects; Energy Economics; Religion, Philosophy, and Energy; Nuclear Studies in Fine Arts and Archeology; Nuclear Methods Applied to Agriculture and Food Preservation; Nuclear Methods in Criminology; Environmental Impact of Energy Generation; and Risk and Insurance Consideration--Energy for Tomorrow. The tours to energy installations conducted during the conference and demonstration related to energy are cited. (MCW)« less

NANO SCENARIO: Role-Playing to Appreciate the Societal Effects of Nanotechnology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarmon, Leslie; Keating, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

This article describes a university-sponsored experiential-based simulation, the NANO SCENARIO, to increase the public's awareness and affect attitudes on the societal implications of nanoscience and nanotechnology by bringing together diverse stakeholders' perspectives in a participatory learning environment. Nanotechnology has the potential for…

Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

2012-12-01

Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

Regional allocation of biomass to U.S. energy demands under a portfolio of policy scenarios.

PubMed

Mullins, Kimberley A; Venkatesh, Aranya; Nagengast, Amy L; Kocoloski, Matt

2014-01-01

The potential for widespread use of domestically available energy resources, in conjunction with climate change concerns, suggest that biomass may be an essential component of U.S. energy systems in the near future. Cellulosic biomass in particular is anticipated to be used in increasing quantities because of policy efforts, such as federal renewable fuel standards and state renewable portfolio standards. Unfortunately, these independently designed biomass policies do not account for the fact that cellulosic biomass can equally be used for different, competing energy demands. An integrated assessment of multiple feedstocks, energy demands, and system costs is critical for making optimal decisions about a unified biomass energy strategy. This study develops a spatially explicit, best-use framework to optimally allocate cellulosic biomass feedstocks to energy demands in transportation, electricity, and residential heating sectors, while minimizing total system costs and tracking greenhouse gas emissions. Comparing biomass usage across three climate policy scenarios suggests that biomass used for space heating is a low cost emissions reduction option, while biomass for liquid fuel or for electricity becomes attractive only as emissions reduction targets or carbon prices increase. Regardless of the policy approach, study results make a strong case for national and regional coordination in policy design and compliance pathways.

"Low road" to rehabilitation: a perspective on subliminal sensory neuroprosthetics.

PubMed

Ghai, Shashank; Ghai, Ishan; Effenberg, Alfred O

2018-01-01

Fear can propagate parallelly through both cortical and subcortical pathways. It can instigate memory consolidation habitually and might allow internal simulation of movements independent of the cortical structures. This perspective suggests delivery of subliminal, aversive and kinematic audiovisual stimuli via neuroprosthetics in patients with neocortical dysfunctions. We suggest possible scenarios by which these stimuli might bypass damaged neocortical structures and possibly assisting in motor relearning. Anticipated neurophysiological mechanisms and methodological scenarios have been discussed in this perspective. This approach introduces novel perspectives into neuropsychology as to how subcortical pathways might be used to induce motor relearning.

4% Yield Increase (HH4), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 4% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Architecture for nuclear energy in the 21st century

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arthu, E.D.; Cunningham, P.T.; Wagner, R.L. Jr.

1999-02-21

Global and regional scenarios for future energy demand have been assessed from the perspectives of nuclear materials management. From these the authors propose creation of a nuclear fuel cycle architecture which maximizes inherent protection of plutonium and other nuclear materials. The concept also provides technical and institutional flexibility for transition into other fuel cycle systems, particularly those involving breeder reactors. The system, its implementation timeline, and overall impact are described in the paper.

An activity theory perspective of how scenario-based simulations support learning: a descriptive analysis.

PubMed

Battista, Alexis

2017-01-01

The dominant frameworks for describing how simulations support learning emphasize increasing access to structured practice and the provision of feedback which are commonly associated with skills-based simulations. By contrast, studies examining student participants' experiences during scenario-based simulations suggest that learning may also occur through participation. However, studies directly examining student participation during scenario-based simulations are limited. This study examined the types of activities student participants engaged in during scenario-based simulations and then analyzed their patterns of activity to consider how participation may support learning. Drawing from Engeström's first-, second-, and third-generation activity systems analysis, an in-depth descriptive analysis was conducted. The study drew from multiple qualitative methods, namely narrative, video, and activity systems analysis, to examine student participants' activities and interaction patterns across four video-recorded simulations depicting common motivations for using scenario-based simulations (e.g., communication, critical patient management). The activity systems analysis revealed that student participants' activities encompassed three clinically relevant categories, including (a) use of physical clinical tools and artifacts, (b) social interactions, and (c) performance of structured interventions. Role assignment influenced participants' activities and the complexity of their engagement. Importantly, participants made sense of the clinical situation presented in the scenario by reflexively linking these three activities together. Specifically, student participants performed structured interventions, relying upon the use of physical tools, clinical artifacts, and social interactions together with interactions between students, standardized patients, and other simulated participants to achieve their goals. When multiple student participants were present, such as in a

Scenarios reveal pathways to sustain future ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape.

PubMed

Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R; Booth, Eric G; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C; Kucharik, Christopher J; Chen, Xi; Loheide, Steven P; Seifert, Jenny; Turner, Monica G

2018-01-01

Sustaining food production, water quality, soil retention, flood, and climate regulation in agricultural landscapes is a pressing global challenge given accelerating environmental changes. Scenarios are stories about plausible futures, and scenarios can be integrated with biophysical simulation models to explore quantitatively how the future might unfold. However, few studies have incorporated a wide range of drivers (e.g., climate, land-use, management, population, human diet) in spatially explicit, process-based models to investigate spatial-temporal dynamics and relationships of a portfolio of ecosystem services. Here, we simulated nine ecosystem services (three provisioning and six regulating services) at 220 × 220 m from 2010 to 2070 under four contrasting scenarios in the 1,345-km 2 Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin, USA) using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic model of terrestrial ecosystem processes, biogeochemistry, water, and energy balance. We asked (1) How does ecosystem service supply vary among alternative future scenarios? (2) Where on the landscape is the provision of ecosystem services most susceptible to future social-ecological changes? (3) Among alternative future scenarios, are relationships (i.e., trade-offs, synergies) among food production, water, and biogeochemical services consistent over time? Our results showed that food production varied substantially with future land-use choices and management, and its trade-offs with water quality and soil retention persisted under most scenarios. However, pathways to mitigate or even reverse such trade-offs through technological advances and sustainable agricultural practices were apparent. Consistent relationships among regulating services were identified across scenarios (e.g., trade-offs of freshwater supply vs. flood and climate regulation, and synergies among water quality, soil retention, and climate regulation), suggesting opportunities and challenges to sustaining these services. In particular, proactive

Sustainability assessment framework for scenarios – SAFS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arushanyan, Yevgeniya, E-mail: yevgeniya.arushanyan@abe.kth.se; KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Centre for Sustainable Communications; Ekener, Elisabeth

To address current challenges regarding sustainable development and support planning for this form of development, new learning about different possible futures and their potential sustainability implications is needed. One way of facilitating this learning is by combining the futures studies and sustainability assessment (SA) research fields. This paper presents the sustainability assessment framework for scenarios (SAFS), a method developed for assessing the environmental and social risks and opportunities of future scenarios, provides guidelines for its application and demonstrates how the framework can be applied. SAFS suggests assessing environmental and social aspects using a consumption perspective and a life cycle approach,more » and provides qualitative results. SAFS does not suggest any modelling using precise data, but instead offers guidelines on how to carry out a qualitative assessment, where both the process of assessing and the outcome of the assessment are valuable and can be used as a basis for discussion. The benefits, drawbacks and potential challenges of applying SAFS are also discussed in the paper. SAFS uses systems thinking looking at future societies as a whole, considering both environmental and social consequences. This encourages researchers and decision-makers to consider the whole picture, and not just individual elements, when considering different futures. - Highlights: • The paper presents a new methodological framework for qualitative sustainability assessment of future scenarios with transformative changes. • The framework suggests qualitative assessment with consumption perspective and a life cycle approach. • The paper presents the framework and provides guidelines for its application. • The paper demonstrates on an example how the framework can be applied. • The benefits, drawbacks and challenges of the framework application and the need for further development are discussed.« less

Beyond Inflation:. A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-08-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful 'cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe [1], in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

Beyond Inflation: A Cyclic Universe Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turok, Neil; Steinhardt, Paul J.

2005-01-01

Inflation has been the leading early universe scenario for two decades, and has become an accepted element of the successful `cosmic concordance' model. However, there are many puzzling features of the resulting theory. It requires both high energy and low energy inflation, with energy densities differing by a hundred orders of magnitude. The questions of why the universe started out undergoing high energy inflation, and why it will end up in low energy inflation, are unanswered. Rather than resort to anthropic arguments, we have developed an alternative cosmology, the cyclic universe, in which the universe exists in a very long-lived attractor state determined by the laws of physics. The model shares inflation's phenomenological successes without requiring an epoch of high energy inflation. Instead, the universe is made homogeneous and flat, and scale-invariant adiabatic perturbations are generated during an epoch of low energy acceleration like that seen today, but preceding the last big bang. Unlike inflation, the model requires low energy acceleration in order for a periodic attractor state to exist. The key challenge facing the scenario is that of passing through the cosmic singularity at t = 0. Substantial progress has been made at the level of linearised gravity, which is reviewed here. The challenge of extending this to nonlinear gravity and string theory remains.

“Low road” to rehabilitation: a perspective on subliminal sensory neuroprosthetics

PubMed Central

Ghai, Shashank; Ghai, Ishan; Effenberg, Alfred O

2018-01-01

Fear can propagate parallelly through both cortical and subcortical pathways. It can instigate memory consolidation habitually and might allow internal simulation of movements independent of the cortical structures. This perspective suggests delivery of subliminal, aversive and kinematic audiovisual stimuli via neuroprosthetics in patients with neocortical dysfunctions. We suggest possible scenarios by which these stimuli might bypass damaged neocortical structures and possibly assisting in motor relearning. Anticipated neurophysiological mechanisms and methodological scenarios have been discussed in this perspective. This approach introduces novel perspectives into neuropsychology as to how subcortical pathways might be used to induce motor relearning. PMID:29398914

Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Options in ISEEM Global Energy Model: 2010-2050 Scenario Analysis for Least-Cost Carbon Reduction in Iron and Steel Sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

The goal of the modeling work carried out in this project was to quantify long-term scenarios for the future emission reduction potentials in the iron and steel sector. The main focus of the project is to examine the impacts of carbon reduction options in the U.S. iron and steel sector under a set of selected scenarios. In order to advance the understanding of carbon emission reduction potential on the national and global scales, and to evaluate the regional impacts of potential U.S. mitigation strategies (e.g., commodity and carbon trading), we also included and examined the carbon reduction scenarios in China’smore » and India’s iron and steel sectors in this project. For this purpose, a new bottom-up energy modeling framework, the Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM), (Karali et al. 2012) was used to provide detailed annual projections starting from 2010 through 2050. We used the ISEEM modeling framework to carry out detailed analysis, on a country-by-country basis, for the U.S., China’s, and India’s iron and steel sectors. The ISEEM model applicable to iron and steel section, called ISEEM-IS, is developed to estimate and evaluate carbon emissions scenarios under several alternative mitigation options - including policies (e.g., carbon caps), commodity trading, and carbon trading. The projections will help us to better understand emission reduction potentials with technological and economic implications. The database for input of ISEEM-IS model consists of data and information compiled from various resources such as World Steel Association (WSA), the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China Steel Year Books, India Bureau of Mines (IBM), Energy Information Administration (EIA), and recent LBNL studies on bottom-up techno-economic analysis of energy efficiency measures in the iron and steel sector of the U.S., China, and India, including long-term steel production in China. In the ISEEM-IS model, production technology and manufacturing

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

10 CFR 63.322 - Human intrusion scenario.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 10 Energy 2 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Human intrusion scenario. 63.322 Section 63.322 Energy NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION (CONTINUED) DISPOSAL OF HIGH-LEVEL RADIOACTIVE WASTES IN A GEOLOGIC REPOSITORY AT YUCCA MOUNTAIN, NEVADA Postclosure Public Health and Environmental Standards Human Intrusion...

Role of national labs in energy and environmental R & D: An industrial perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vaz, N.

1995-12-31

The perceived role of national laboratories in energy and environmental research and development is examined from an industrial perspective. A series of tables are used to summarize issues primarily related to the automotive industry. Impacts of policy on energy, environment, society, and international competition are outlined. Advances and further needs in automotive efficiency and pollution control, and research roles for national labs and industry are also summarized. 6 tabs.

Emotion Understanding and Reconciliation in Overt and Relational Conflict Scenarios among Preschoolers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liao, Zongqing; Li, Yan; Su, Yanjie

2014-01-01

This study examined emotion understanding and reconciliation in 47 (24 girls) 4-6-year-old preschool children. Participants first completed emotion recognition tasks and then answered questions regarding reconciliation tendencies and affective perspective-taking in a series of overt and relational aggressive conflict scenarios. Children's teachers…

Alternative Geothermal Power Production Scenarios

DOE Data Explorer

Sullivan, John

2014-03-14

The information given in this file pertains to Argonne LCAs of the plant cycle stage for a set of ten new geothermal scenario pairs, each comprised of a reference and improved case. These analyses were conducted to compare environmental performances among the scenarios and cases. The types of plants evaluated are hydrothermal binary and flash and Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) binary and flash plants. Each scenario pair was developed by the LCOE group using GETEM as a way to identify plant operational and resource combinations that could reduce geothermal power plant LCOE values. Based on the specified plant and well field characteristics (plant type, capacity, capacity factor and lifetime, and well numbers and depths) for each case of each pair, Argonne generated a corresponding set of material to power ratios (MPRs) and greenhouse gas and fossil energy ratios.

Promoting renewable energy and energy efficiency in Africa: a framework to evaluate employment generation and cost effectiveness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cantore, Nicola; Nussbaumer, Patrick; Wei, Max; Kammen, Daniel M.

2017-03-01

The ongoing debate over the cost-effectiveness of renewable energy (RE) and energy efficiency (EE) deployment often hinges on the current cost of incumbent fossil-fuel technologies versus the long-term benefit of clean energy alternatives. This debate is often focused on mature or ‘industrialized’ economies and externalities such as job creation. In many ways, however, the situation in developing economies is at least as or even more interesting due to the generally faster current rate of economic growth and of infrastructure deployment. On the one hand, RE and EE could help decarbonize economies in developing countries, but on the other hand, higher upfront costs of RE and EE could hamper short-term growth. The methodology developed in this paper confirms the existence of this trade-off for some scenarios, yet at the same time provides considerable evidence about the positive impact of EE and RE from a job creation and employment perspective. By extending and adopting a methodology for Africa designed to calculate employment from electricity generation in the U.S., this study finds that energy savings and the conversion of the electricity supply mix to renewable energy generates employment compared to a reference scenario. It also concludes that the costs per additional job created tend to decrease with increasing levels of both EE adoption and RE shares.

3% Yield Increase (HH3), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 3% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

2% Yield Increase (HH2), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, Maggie R.; Hellwinkel, Chad; Eaton, Laurence

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as an alternate high-yield scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. Date the data set was last modified: 02/02/2016 How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought tomore » market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 2% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.« less

An Exploration Perspective of Beamed Energy Propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cole, John W.

2007-01-01

The Vision for Exploration is currently focused on flying the Space Shuttle safely to complete our Space Station obligations, retiring the Shuttle in 2010, then returning humans to the Moon and learning how to proceed to Mars and beyond. The NASA budget still includes funds for science and aeronautics but the primary focus is on human exploration. Fiscal constraints have led to pursuing exploration vehicles that use heritage hardware, particularly existing boosters and engines, with the minimum modifications necessary to satisfy mission requirements. So, pursuit of immature technologies is not currently affordable by NASA. Beamed energy is one example of an immature technology, from a human exploration perspective, that may eventually provide significant benefits for human exploration of space, but likely not in the near future. Looking to the more distant future, this paper will examine some of the criteria that must be achieved by beamed energy propulsion to eventually contribute to human exploration of the solar system. The analysis focuses on some of the implications of increasing the payload fraction of a launch vehicle, with a quick look at trans-lunar injection. As one would expect, there is potential for benefit, and there are concerns. The analysis concludes with an assessment of the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) for some beamed energy propulsion components, indicating that TRL 2 is close to being completed.

Radiation Detection Computational Benchmark Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shaver, Mark W.; Casella, Andrew M.; Wittman, Richard S.

2013-09-24

Modeling forms an important component of radiation detection development, allowing for testing of new detector designs, evaluation of existing equipment against a wide variety of potential threat sources, and assessing operation performance of radiation detection systems. This can, however, result in large and complex scenarios which are time consuming to model. A variety of approaches to radiation transport modeling exist with complementary strengths and weaknesses for different problems. This variety of approaches, and the development of promising new tools (such as ORNL’s ADVANTG) which combine benefits of multiple approaches, illustrates the need for a means of evaluating or comparing differentmore » techniques for radiation detection problems. This report presents a set of 9 benchmark problems for comparing different types of radiation transport calculations, identifying appropriate tools for classes of problems, and testing and guiding the development of new methods. The benchmarks were drawn primarily from existing or previous calculations with a preference for scenarios which include experimental data, or otherwise have results with a high level of confidence, are non-sensitive, and represent problem sets of interest to NA-22. From a technical perspective, the benchmarks were chosen to span a range of difficulty and to include gamma transport, neutron transport, or both and represent different important physical processes and a range of sensitivity to angular or energy fidelity. Following benchmark identification, existing information about geometry, measurements, and previous calculations were assembled. Monte Carlo results (MCNP decks) were reviewed or created and re-run in order to attain accurate computational times and to verify agreement with experimental data, when present. Benchmark information was then conveyed to ORNL in order to guide testing and development of hybrid calculations. The results of those ADVANTG calculations were then sent to

SCENARIOS FOR MEETING CALIFORNIA'S 2050 CLIMATE GOALS California's Carbon Challenge Phase II Volume I: Non-Electricity Sectors and Overall Scenario Results

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wei, Max; Greenblatt, Jeffrey; Donovan, Sally

2014-06-01

This study provides an updated analysis of long-term energy system scenarios for California consistent with the State meeting its 2050 climate goal, including detailed analysis and assessment of electricity system build-out, operation, and costs across the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) region. Four key elements are found to be critical for the State to achieve its 2050 goal of 80 percent greenhouse (GHG) reductions from the 1990 level: aggressive energy efficiency; clean electricity; widespread electrification of passenger vehicles, building heating, and industry heating; and large-scale production of low-carbon footprint biofuels to largely replace petroleum-based liquid fuels. The approach taken heremore » is that technically achievable energy efficiency measures are assumed to be achieved by 2050 and aggregated with the other key elements mentioned above to estimate resultant emissions in 2050. The energy and non-energy sectors are each assumed to have the objective of meeting an 80 percent reduction from their respective 1990 GHG levels for the purposes of analysis. A different partitioning of energy and non-energy sector GHG greenhouse reductions is allowed if emission reductions in one sector are more economic or technically achievable than in the other. Similarly, within the energy or non-energy sectors, greater or less than 80 percent reduction from 1990 is allowed for sub-sectors within the energy or non-energy sectors as long as the overall target is achieved. Overall emissions for the key economy-wide scenarios are considered in this report. All scenarios are compliant or nearly compliant with the 2050 goal. This finding suggests that multiple technical pathways exist to achieve the target with aggressive policy support and continued technology development of largely existing technologies.« less

On global energy scenario, dye-sensitized solar cells and the promise of nanotechnology.

PubMed

Reddy, K Govardhan; Deepak, T G; Anjusree, G S; Thomas, Sara; Vadukumpully, Sajini; Subramanian, K R V; Nair, Shantikumar V; Nair, A Sreekumaran

2014-04-21

One of the major problems that humanity has to face in the next 50 years is the energy crisis. The rising population, rapidly changing life styles of people, heavy industrialization and changing landscape of cities have increased energy demands, enormously. The present annual worldwide electricity consumption is 12 TW and is expected to become 24 TW by 2050, leaving a challenging deficit of 12 TW. The present energy scenario of using fossil fuels to meet the energy demand is unable to meet the increase in demand effectively, as these fossil fuel resources are non-renewable and limited. Also, they cause significant environmental hazards, like global warming and the associated climatic issues. Hence, there is an urgent necessity to adopt renewable sources of energy, which are eco-friendly and not extinguishable. Of the various renewable sources available, such as wind, tidal, geothermal, biomass, solar, etc., solar serves as the most dependable option. Solar energy is freely and abundantly available. Once installed, the maintenance cost is very low. It is eco-friendly, safely fitting into our society without any disturbance. Producing electricity from the Sun requires the installation of solar panels, which incurs a huge initial cost and requires large areas of lands for installation. This is where nanotechnology comes into the picture and serves the purpose of increasing the efficiency to higher levels, thus bringing down the overall cost for energy production. Also, emerging low-cost solar cell technologies, e.g. thin film technologies and dye-sensitized solar cells (DSCs) help to replace the use of silicon, which is expensive. Again, nanotechnological implications can be applied in these solar cells, to achieve higher efficiencies. This paper vividly deals with the various available solar cells, choosing DSCs as the most appropriate ones. The nanotechnological implications which help to improve their performance are dealt with, in detail. Additionally, the

Scenarios for Ultrafast Gamma-Ray Variability in AGN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharonian, F. A.; Barkov, M. V.; Khangulyan, D.

2017-05-01

We analyze three scenarios to address the challenge of ultrafast gamma-ray variability reported from active galactic nuclei. We focus on the energy requirements imposed by these scenarios: (I) external cloud in the jet, (II) relativistic blob propagating through the jet material, and (III) production of high-energy gamma-rays in the magnetosphere gaps. We show that while the first two scenarios are not constrained by the flare luminosity, there is a robust upper limit on the luminosity of flares generated in the black hole magnetosphere. This limit depends weakly on the mass of the central black hole and is determined by the accretion disk magnetization, viewing angle, and the pair multiplicity. For the most favorable values of these parameters, the luminosity for 5-minute flares is limited by 2× {10}43 {erg} {{{s}}}-1, which excludes a black hole magnetosphere origin of the flare detected from IC 310. In the scopes of scenarios (I) and (II), the jet power, which is required to explain the IC 310 flare, exceeds the jet power estimated based on the radio data. To resolve this discrepancy in the framework of scenario (II), it is sufficient to assume that the relativistic blobs are not distributed isotropically in the jet reference frame. A realization of scenario (I) demands that the jet power during the flare exceeds by a factor 102 the power of the radio jet relevant to a timescale of 108 years.

Water Use in the US Electric Power Sector: Energy Systems ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation reviews the water demands of long-range electricity scenarios. It addresses questions such as: What are the aggregate water requirements of the U.S. electric power sector? How could water requirements evolve under different long-range regional generation mixes? It also looks at research addressing the electricity generation water demand from a life cycle perspective, such as water use for the fuel cycle (natural gas, coal, uranium, etc.) and water use for the materials/equipment/manufacturing of new power plants. The presentation is part of panel session on the Water-Energy Nexus at the World Energy Engineering Congress

Perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tonn, B.; Schaffhauser, A.

1994-04-01

This report offers perspectives on the future of the electric utility industry. These perspectives will be used in further research to assess the prospects for Integrated Resource Planning (IRP). The perspectives are developed first by examining economic, political and regulatory, societal, technological, and environmental trends that are (1) national and global in scope and (2) directly related to the electric utility industry. Major national and global trends include increasing global economic competition, increasing political and ethnic strife, rapidly changing technologies, and increasing worldwide concern about the environment. Major trends in the utility industry include increasing competition in generation; changing patternsmore » of electricity demand; increasing use of information technology to control power systems; and increasing implementation of environmental controls. Ways in which the national and global trends may directly affect the utility industry are also explored. The trends are used to construct three global and national scenarios- ``business as usual,`` ``technotopia future,`` and ``fortress state`` -and three electric utility scenarios- ``frozen in headlights,`` ``megaelectric,`` and ``discomania.`` The scenarios are designed to be thought provoking descriptions of potential futures, not predictions of the future, although three key variables are identified that will have significant impacts on which future evolves-global climate change, utility technologies, and competition. While emphasis needs to be placed on understanding the electric utility scenarios, the interactions between the two sets of scenarios is also of interest.« less

European energy and transport: scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-07-01

Energy efficiency and renewables are central to the EU and Member State's energy and climate policies. Reducing CO2 emissions, curbing the energy demand and/or provide alternative carbon-free supplies. The EU energy policies have three main objective...

Low-energy fusion dynamics of weakly bound nuclei: A time dependent perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diaz-Torres, A.; Boselli, M.

2016-05-01

Recent dynamical fusion models for weakly bound nuclei at low incident energies, based on a time-dependent perspective, are briefly presented. The main features of both the PLATYPUS model and a new quantum approach are highlighted. In contrast to existing timedependent quantum models, the present quantum approach separates the complete and incomplete fusion from the total fusion. Calculations performed within a toy model for 6Li + 209Bi at near-barrier energies show that converged excitation functions for total, complete and incomplete fusion can be determined with the time-dependent wavepacket dynamics.

Physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at very high energy

DOE PAGES

Chang, Ning-bo; Cao, ShanShan; Chen, Bao-yi; ...

2016-01-15

We expect heavy-ion collisions at very high colliding energies to produce a quark-gluon plasma (QGP) at the highest temperature obtainable in a laboratory setting. Experimental studies of these reactions can provide an unprecedented range of information on properties of the QGP at high temperatures. We also report theoretical investigations of the physics perspectives of heavy-ion collisions at a future high-energy collider. These include initial parton production, collective expansion of the dense medium, jet quenching, heavy-quark transport, dissociation and regeneration of quarkonia, photon and dilepton production. Here, we illustrate the potential of future experimental studies of the initial particle production andmore » formation of QGP at the highest temperature to provide constraints on properties of strongly interaction matter.« less

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of deep uncertainty presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be “technological development” and “change in societal paradigms.” These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emission implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOX and SO2 emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition

Health and social impacts of biomass gasification for household energy in rural China: Assessment from three perspectives and emergent insights from their synthesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Susan Lynn

Solid fuels such as coal, wood, and crop straw supply some fraction of household cooking and heating fuel for more than one billion people in China. As these fuels do not generally combust cleanly in household stoves, their use levies large health and environmental burdens, particularly in rural regions. Production of clean-burning fuels from agricultural residue offers one prospect for mitigating health and social burdens imposed by household use of solid fuels. This dissertation explores the question: how might production of clean-burning household fuels from agricultural residues affect human health and social conditions in rural China? I approach this question from three perspectives. First, a technically plausible but currently unproven village-scale energy technology is explored in a scenario bounded by natural resources and substantiated by engineering specifications, estimates of indoor exposures to air pollution, and epidemiological analyses. This analysis asks at the national (China) level: how might rural health burdens be mitigated and greenhouse gas emissions reduced by such a technology? Secondly, I perform wintertime indoor air quality monitoring in a Chinese village where coal and wood are used for heating and a variety of solid and "improved" fuels, including gas and electricity, are used for cooking. This fieldwork characterizes rural indoor air quality in terms of 24-hour and peak-period (1-hour) carbon monoxide (CO) and particulate matter (PM) concentrations and 24-hour airborne nicotine (a proxy for environmental tobacco smoke), as well as daily exposures of primary cooks to CO. I also explore relationships between observed measures of indoor air quality and investigate household structural and behavioral factors as determinants of air quality. The third perspective is an ethnographic case study of a demonstration project for production of household fuel from agricultural residue in Hechengli Village, Jilin Province, China. With an emphasis on

Deleterious Emission Abatement through Structured Energy Use Pattern: A North Central Nigeria Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ajayi-Banji, Ademola; Omotosho, Olayinka; Amori, Anthony; Alao, Damilola; Igbode, Imoisime; Abimbola, Olufemi

2016-05-01

Holistic view of household energy consumption based on greenhouse gas emissions in the North Central cities of Nigeria was examined in this study. Scenarios considered were based on income level of energy users (low and high) and energy metering system (i.e. pre-paid and post-paid energy billing systems). Strong direct nexus was observed between energy use and emissions pattern. Energy utilization by post-paid category had higher weekly average value of 35.09 and 41.70 kWh as against 23.18 and 33.38 kWh for low and high income pre-paid consumers respectively. Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions from both classification followed similar trend. Data obtained and analysed in the study show that global warming and acidification potentials could be reduced by 33.94 and 19.95 % for low and high income category consumers when pre-paid meters are in place. Conclusively, energy system users with pre-paid metering system displayed reasonable level of management decisions that reduce energy wastage and consequently environmental negative impacts.

Physical Simulation for Low-Energy Astrobiology Environmental Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gormly, Sherwin; Adams, V. D.; Marchand, Eric

2003-12-01

Speculations about the extent of life of independent origin and the potential for sustaining Earth-based life in subsurface environments on both Europa and Mars are of current and relevant interest. Theoretical modeling based on chemical energetics has demonstrated potential options for viable biochemical metabolism (metabolic pathways) in these types of environments. Also, similar environments on Earth show microbial activity. However, actual physical simulation testing of specific environments is required to confidently determine the interplay of various physical and chemical parameters on the viability of relevant metabolic pathways. This testing is required to determine the potential to sustain life in these environments on a specific scenario by scenario basis. This study examines the justification, design, and fabrication of, as well as the culture selection and screening for, a psychrophilic/halophilic/anaerobic digester. This digester is specifically designed to conform to physical testing needs of research relating to potential extent physical environments on Europa and other planetary bodies in the Solar System. The study is a long-term effort and is currently in an early phase, with only screening-level data at this time. Full study results will likely take an additional 2 years. However, researchers in electromagnetic biosignature and in situ instrument development should be aware of the study at this time, as they are invited to participate in planning for future applications of the digester facility.

Sustainable Systems Analysis of Production and Transportation Scenarios for Conventional and Bio-based Energy Commodities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, E. M.; Golden, J. S.; Nowacek, D. P.

2013-12-01

International commerce places unique pressures on the sustainability of water resources and marine environments. System impacts include noise, emissions, and chemical and biological pollutants like introduction of invasive species into key ecosystems. At the same time, maritime trade also enables the sustainability ambition of intragenerational equity in the economy through the global circulation of commodities and manufactured goods, including agricultural, energy and mining resources (UN Trade and Development Board 2013). This paper presents a framework to guide the analysis of the multiple dimensions of the sustainable commerce-ocean nexus. As a demonstration case, we explore the social, economic and environmental aspects of the nexus framework using scenarios for the production and transportation of conventional and bio-based energy commodities. Using coupled LCA and GIS methodologies, we are able to orient the findings spatially for additional insight. Previous work on the sustainable use of marine resources has focused on distinct aspects of the maritime environment. The framework presented here, integrates the anthropogenic use, governance and impacts on the marine and coastal environments with the natural components of the system. A similar framework has been highly effective in progressing the study of land-change science (Turner et al 2007), however modification is required for the unique context of the marine environment. This framework will enable better research integration and planning for sustainability objectives including mitigation and adaptation to climate change, sea level rise, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, protection of critical marine habitat and species, and better management of the ocean as an emerging resource base for the production and transport of commodities and energy across the globe. The framework can also be adapted for vulnerability analysis, resilience studies and to evaluate the trends in production, consumption and

Optimizing Aggregation Scenarios for Integrating Renewable Energy into the U.S. Electric Grid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corcoran, B. A.; Jacobson, M. Z.

2010-12-01

This study is an analysis of 2006 and 2007 electric load data, wind speed and solar irradiance data, and existing hydroelectric, geothermal, and other power plant data to quantify benefits of aggregating clean electric power from various Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) regions in the contiguous United States. First, various time series, statistics, and probability methods are applied to the electric load data to determine if there are any desirable demand-side results—specifically reducing variability and/or coincidence of peak events, which could reduce the amount of required carbon-based generators—in combining the electricity demands from geographically and temporally diverse areas. Second, an optimization algorithm is applied to determine the least-cost portfolio of energy resources to meet the electric load for a range of renewable portfolio standards (RPS’s) for each FERC region and for various aggregation scenarios. Finally, the installed capacities, ramp rates, standard deviation, and corresponding generator requirements from these optimization test runs are compared against the transmission requirements to determine the most economical organizational structure of the contiguous U.S. electric grid. Ideally, results from this study will help to justify and identify a possible structure of a federal RPS and offer insight into how to best organize regions for transmission planning.

The Top 10 Ethical Challenges in Dental Practice in Indian Scenario: Dentist Perspective

PubMed Central

Kemparaj, Vanishree M.; Panchmal, Ganesh Shenoy; Kadalur, Umashankar Gangadaraiah

2018-01-01

Aim: This exploratory qualitative research is an attempt to assess the health care ethical challenges in dental practice in an Indian scenario. Methodology: Qualitative indepth interview was conducted on 20 dental professionals to assess the ethical challenges prevailing in dental practice in Indian scenario. After obtaining the responses the verbatims were categorized into categories and finally 36 themes emerged. Later from two group of 6 panellists each after conducting focus group discussion the themes of ethical issues occurring in dental practice were ranked based on order of significance impact on the practice, patient and society using Delphi method. Result: The top ten ethical challenges listed by the panellists are inadequate sterilization and waste management in dental clinics, poor knowledge and attitude towards ethics among our dental practitioners, in competence among dental professional, increase in cost of oral health service, poor informed consent process, requirement of consensus about the treatment procedures among dentists, Conflict in Advertising, clustering of dental clinics in urban areas, disagreement with treatment modalities among dentist and patient, poor medical record maintenance among our dental practitioners. Conclusion: The study attempts to bring the prevailing ethical challenges in oral health care practice in Indian scenario. PMID:29599593

Water demands for electricity generation in the U.S.: Modeling different scenarios for the water–energy nexus

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Lu; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Patel, Pralit L.

Water withdrawal for electricity generation in the United States accounts for approximately half the total freshwater withdrawal. With steadily growing electricity demands, a changing climate, and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states, meeting future energy and water demands poses a significant socio-economic challenge. Employing an integrated modeling approach that can capture the energy-water interactions at regional and national scales is essential to improve our understanding of the key drivers that govern those interactions and the role of national policies. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and landmore » use, water, and climate systems, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. (GCAM-USA). GCAM-USA was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and consumption, and their associated water withdrawals and consumption under a set of six scenarios with extensive details on the generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and their associated water use intensities. Six scenarios of future water demands of the U.S. electric-sector were explored to investigate the implications of socioeconomics development and growing electricity demands, climate mitigation policy, the transition of cooling systems, electricity trade, and water saving technologies. Our findings include: 1) decreasing water withdrawals and substantially increasing water consumption from both climate mitigation and the conversion from open-loop to closed-loop cooling systems; 2) open trading of electricity benefiting energy scarce yet demand intensive states; 3) within state variability under different driving forces while across state homogeneity under certain driving force ; 4) a clear trade-off between water consumption and withdrawal for the electricity sector in the U.S. The paper discusses this withdrawal

Flexible and Stretchable Energy Storage: Recent Advances and Future Perspectives.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Song, Min-Sang; Kong, Biao; Cui, Yi

2017-01-01

Energy-storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors have become fundamental building blocks in modern society. Recently, the emerging direction toward the ever-growing market of flexible and wearable electronics has nourished progress in building multifunctional energy-storage systems that can be bent, folded, crumpled, and stretched while maintaining their electrochemical functions under deformation. Here, recent progress and well-developed strategies in research designed to accomplish flexible and stretchable lithium-ion batteries and supercapacitors are reviewed. The challenges of developing novel materials and configurations with tailored features, and in designing simple and large-scaled manufacturing methods that can be widely utilized are considered. Furthermore, the perspectives and opportunities for this emerging field of materials science and engineering are also discussed. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Futures of elderly care in Iran: A protocol with scenario approach.

PubMed

Goharinezhad, Salime; Maleki, Mohammadreza; Baradaran, Hamid Reza; Ravaghi, Hamid

2016-01-01

Background: The number of people aged 60 and older is increasing faster than other age groups worldwide. Iran will experience a sharp aging population increase in the next decades, and this will pose new challenges to the healthcare system. Since providing high quality aged-care services would be the major concern of the policymakers, this question arises that what types of aged care services should be organized in the coming 10 years? This protocol has been designed to develop a set of scenarios for the future of elderly care in Iran. Methods: In this study, intuitive logics approach and Global Business Network (GBN) model were used to develop scenarios for elderly care in Iran. In terms of perspective, the scenarios in this approach are normative, qualitative with respect to methodology and deductive in constructing the process of scenarios. The three phases of GBN model are as follows: 1) Orientation: Identifying strategic levels, stakeholders, participants and time horizon; 2) Exploration: Identifying the driving forces and key uncertainties; 3) Synthesis: Defining the scenario logics and constructing scenario storyline. Results: Presently, two phases are completed and the results will be published in mid-2016. Conclusion: This study delivers a comprehensive framework for taking appropriate actions in providing care for the elderly in the future. Moreover, policy makers should specify and provide the full range of services for the elderly, and in doing so, the scenarios and key findings of this study could be of valuable help.

Scenario analysis and path selection of low-carbon transformation in China based on a modified IPAT model.

PubMed

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40-45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China's low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance.

Scenario Analysis and Path Selection of Low-Carbon Transformation in China Based on a Modified IPAT Model

PubMed Central

Chen, Liang; Yang, Zhifeng; Chen, Bin

2013-01-01

This paper presents a forecast and analysis of population, economic development, energy consumption and CO2 emissions variation in China in the short- and long-term steps before 2020 with 2007 as the base year. The widely applied IPAT model, which is the basis for calculations, projections, and scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) reformulated as the Kaya equation, is extended to analyze and predict the relations between human activities and the environment. Four scenarios of CO2 emissions are used including business as usual (BAU), energy efficiency improvement scenario (EEI), low carbon scenario (LC) and enhanced low carbon scenario (ELC). The results show that carbon intensity will be reduced by 40–45% as scheduled and economic growth rate will be 6% in China under LC scenario by 2020. The LC scenario, as the most appropriate and the most feasible scheme for China’s low-carbon development in the future, can maximize the harmonious development of economy, society, energy and environmental systems. Assuming China's development follows the LC scenario, the paper further gives four paths of low-carbon transformation in China: technological innovation, industrial structure optimization, energy structure optimization and policy guidance. PMID:24204922

Base-Case 1% Yield Increase (BC1), All Energy Crops scenario of the 2016 Billion Ton Report

DOE Data Explorer

Davis, Maggie R. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000181319328); Hellwinkel, Chad [University of Tennessee] (ORCID:0000000173085058); Eaton, Laurence [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000312709626); Langholtz, Matthew H. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000281537154); Turhollow, Anthony [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000228159350); Brandt, Craig [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)] (ORCID:0000000214707379); Myers, Aaron (ORCID:0000000320373827)

2016-07-13

Scientific reason for data generation: to serve as the base-case scenario for the BT16 volume 1 agricultural scenarios to compare these projections of potential biomass supplies against a reference case (agricultural baseline 10.11578/1337885). The simulation runs from 2015 through 2040; a starting year of 2014 is used but not reported. How each parameter was produced (methods), format, and relationship to other data in the data set: This exogenous price simulations (also referred to as “specified-price” simulations) introduces a farmgate price, and POLYSYS solves for biomass supplies that may be brought to market in response to these prices. In specified-price scenarios, a specified farmgate price is offered constantly in all counties over all years of the simulation. This simulation begins in 2015 with an offered farmgate price for primary crop residues only between 2015 and 2018 and long-term contracts for dedicated crops beginning in 2019. Expected mature energy crop yield grows at a compounding rate of 1% beginning in 2016. The yield growth assumptions are fixed after crops are planted such that yield gains do not apply to crops already planted, but new plantings do take advantage of the gains in expected yield growth. Instruments used: Policy Analysis System –POLYSYS (version POLYS2015_V10_alt_JAN22B), an agricultural policy modeling system of U.S. agriculture (crops and livestock), supplied by the University of Tennessee Institute of Agriculture, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center.

Catalysis for biomass and CO2 use through solar energy: opening new scenarios for a sustainable and low-carbon chemical production.

PubMed

Lanzafame, Paola; Centi, Gabriele; Perathoner, Siglinda

2014-11-21

The use of biomass, bio-waste and CO2 derived raw materials, the latter synthesized using H2 produced using renewable energy sources, opens new scenarios to develop a sustainable and low carbon chemical production, particularly in regions such as Europe lacking in other resources. This tutorial review discusses first this new scenario with the aim to point out, between the different possible options, those more relevant to enable this new future scenario for the chemical production, commenting in particular the different drivers (economic, technological and strategic, environmental and sustainability and socio-political) which guide the selection. The case of the use of non-fossil fuel based raw materials for the sustainable production of light olefins is discussed in more detail, but the production of other olefins and polyolefins, of drop-in intermediates and other platform molecules are also analysed. The final part discusses the role of catalysis in establishing this new scenario, summarizing the development of catalysts with respect to industrial targets, for (i) the production of light olefins by catalytic dehydration of ethanol and by CO2 conversion via FTO process, (ii) the catalytic synthesis of butadiene from ethanol, butanol and butanediols, and (iii) the catalytic synthesis of HMF and its conversion to 2,5-FDCA, adipic acid, caprolactam and 1,6-hexanediol.

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE PAGES

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea; ...

2017-12-22

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Constructing probabilistic scenarios for wide-area solar power generation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woodruff, David L.; Deride, Julio; Staid, Andrea

Optimizing thermal generation commitments and dispatch in the presence of high penetrations of renewable resources such as solar energy requires a characterization of their stochastic properties. In this study, we describe novel methods designed to create day-ahead, wide-area probabilistic solar power scenarios based only on historical forecasts and associated observations of solar power production. Each scenario represents a possible trajectory for solar power in next-day operations with an associated probability computed by algorithms that use historical forecast errors. Scenarios are created by segmentation of historic data, fitting non-parametric error distributions using epi-splines, and then computing specific quantiles from these distributions.more » Additionally, we address the challenge of establishing an upper bound on solar power output. Our specific application driver is for use in stochastic variants of core power systems operations optimization problems, e.g., unit commitment and economic dispatch. These problems require as input a range of possible future realizations of renewables production. However, the utility of such probabilistic scenarios extends to other contexts, e.g., operator and trader situational awareness. Finally, we compare the performance of our approach to a recently proposed method based on quantile regression, and demonstrate that our method performs comparably to this approach in terms of two widely used methods for assessing the quality of probabilistic scenarios: the Energy score and the Variogram score.« less

Polyethylene recycling: Waste policy scenario analysis for the EU-27.

PubMed

Andreoni, Valeria; Saveyn, Hans G M; Eder, Peter

2015-08-01

This paper quantifies the main impacts that the adoption of the best recycling practices together with a reduction in the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the adoption of a kerbside collection system could have on the 27 Member States of the EU. The main consequences in terms of employment, waste management costs, emissions and energy use have been quantified for two scenarios of polyethylene (PE) waste production and recycling. That is to say, a "business as usual scenario", where the 2012 performances of PE waste production and recycling are extrapolated to 2020, is compared to a "best practice scenario", where the best available recycling practices are modelled together with the possible adoption of the amended Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive related to the consumption of single-use plastic bags and the implementation of a kerbside collection system. The main results show that socio-economic and environmental benefits can be generated across the EU by the implementation of the best practice scenario. In particular, estimations show a possible reduction of 4.4 million tonnes of non-recycled PE waste, together with a reduction of around €90 million in waste management costs in 2020 for the best practice scenario versus the business as usual scenario. An additional 35,622 jobs are also expected to be created. In environmental terms, the quantity of CO2 equivalent emissions could be reduced by around 1.46 million tonnes and the net energy requirements are expected to increase by 16.5 million GJ as a consequence of the reduction in the energy produced from waste. The main analysis provided in this paper, together with the data and the model presented, can be useful to identify the possible costs and benefits that the implementation of PE waste policies and Directives could generate for the EU. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Considerations in linking energy scenario modeling and Life Cycle Analysis

EPA Science Inventory

The U.S. EPA Office of Research and Development (ORD) has been exploring approaches for estimating U.S. anthropogenic air pollutant emissions through the mid-21st century. As a result, we have developed the Emission Scenario Projection methodology, or ESP. In this document, we pr...

A developing country perspective on implementing sustainable energy programs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ul Haq, Z.; James, J.A.; Kamal, S.

1997-12-31

Bangladesh is a developing country faced with many challenges such as high population growth rate, low literacy levels, and poverty. One of its most difficult tasks is providing the infrastructure necessary to sustain a growing population with a finite resource base. There is a need to develop a long term energy strategy that relies on sustainable resources while reducing environmental harm. Solar energy has the potential to meet these requirements and presents a highly attractive energy source for Bangladesh. Bangladesh is fortunate enough to have a significant amount of solar irradiance. A number of projects have been started in Bangladeshmore » to exploit renewable energy resources. This paper will highlight the current status of these projects. Major interest and activity is directed towards development of photovoltaic and wind resources. The market for renewable technologies is vast in Bangladesh where a significant portion of the population is off-grid and in need of energy. Although this is not an affluent market technology costs have come down sufficiently such that it is becoming accessible to rural populations with credit schemes. While developing sustainable energy is a worthwhile goal and much encouraged by donor agencies, Bangladesh`s perspective on attempting to develop this sector suggests that it is not an easy road to follow, due to numerous internal and external barriers. A discussion of the barriers to the commercialization of renewables will be included in this paper. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on these issues and to stimulate discussions on how to overcome the barriers and encourage the dissemination of renewables in developing countries.« less

2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley J.; Mai, Trieu T.; Richards, James

The 2017 Standard Scenarios includes a suite of U.S. electricity sector scenarios. The report explores four power sector storylines, including the growth in natural gas and renewable energy, the relative competitiveness of wind and solar PV, the potential impact of low-cost battery storage, and the impact of nuclear lifetimes on the capacity expansion of the power sector.

Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc

This presentation describes the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool, H2FAST, and provides an overview of each of the three H2FAST formats: the H2FAST web tool, the H2FAST Excel spreadsheet, and the H2FAST Business Case Scenario (BCS) tool. Examples are presented to illustrate the types of questions that H2FAST can help answer.

City-scale analysis of water-related energy identifies more cost-effective solutions.

PubMed

Lam, Ka Leung; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

2017-02-01

Energy and greenhouse gas management in urban water systems typically focus on optimising within the direct system boundary of water utilities that covers the centralised water supply and wastewater treatment systems, despite a greater energy influence by the water end use. This work develops a cost curve of water-related energy management options from a city perspective for a hypothetical Australian city. It is compared with that from the water utility perspective. The curves are based on 18 water-related energy management options that have been implemented or evaluated in Australia. In the studied scenario, the cost-effective energy saving potential from a city perspective (292 GWh/year) is far more significant than that from a utility perspective (65 GWh/year). In some cases, for similar capital cost, if regional water planners invested in end use options instead of utility options, a greater energy saving potential at a greater cost-effectiveness could be achieved in urban water systems. For example, upgrading a wastewater treatment plant for biogas recovery at a capital cost of $27.2 million would save 31 GWh/year with a marginal cost saving of $63/MWh, while solar hot water system rebates at a cost of $28.6 million would save 67 GWh/year with a marginal cost saving of $111/MWh. Options related to hot water use such as water-efficient shower heads, water-efficient clothes washers and solar hot water system rebates are among the most cost-effective city-scale opportunities. This study demonstrates the use of cost curves to compare both utility and end use options in a consistent framework. It also illustrates that focusing solely on managing the energy use within the utility would miss substantial non-utility water-related energy saving opportunities. There is a need to broaden the conventional scope of cost curve analysis to include water-related energy and greenhouse gas at the water end use, and to value their management from a city perspective. This

Dark scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahonen, Pasi; Alahuhta, Petteri; Daskala, Barbara; Delaitre, Sabine; Hert, Paul De; Lindner, Ralf; Maghiros, Ioannis; Moscibroda, Anna; Schreurs, Wim; Verlinden, Michiel

In this chapter, we present four "dark scenarios" that highlight the key socio-economic, legal, technological and ethical risks to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by new AmI technologies. We call them dark scenarios, because they show things that could go wrong in an AmI world, because they present visions of the future that we do not want to become reality. The scenarios expose threats and vulnerabilities as a way to inform policy-makers and planners about issues they need to take into account in developing new policies or updating existing legislation. Before presenting the four scenarios and our analysis of each, we describe the process of how we created the scenarios as well as the elements in our methodology for analysing the scenarios.

The Empirical Investigation of Perspective-Based Reading

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Green, Scott; Laitenberger, Oliver; Shull, Forrest; Sorumgard, Sivert; Zelkowitz, Marvin V.

1996-01-01

We consider reading techniques a fundamental means of achieving high quality software. Due to the lack of research in this area, we are experimenting with the application and comparison of various reading techniques. This paper deals with our experiences with Perspective-Based Reading (PBR), a particular reading technique for requirements documents. The goal of PBR is to provide operational scenarios where members of a review team read a document from a particular perspective (e.g., tester, developer, user). Our assumption is that the combination of different perspectives provides better coverage of the document than the same number of readers using their usual technique.

Global energy shifts: Future possibilities in historical perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podobnik, Bruce Michael

2000-11-01

This study adopts a macro-comparative, world-systems perspective in order to shed light on the dynamics that led to a global shift away from primary reliance on coal and towards over-reliance on petroleum. It is argued that the interaction of three global dynamics, those of geopolitical rivalry, commercial competition, and social unrest, undermined the nineteenth-century international coal system and paved the way for the consolidation of an international petroleum system in the twentieth century. Specifically, the historical analysis presented in this dissertation shows that: (1) intervention by state agents was absolutely crucial in the early development and later expansion of the international petroleum system; (2) private coal companies attempted to prevent the consolidation of an oil-based energy system, but these older companies were out-competed by newer, multinational petroleum corporations; and (3) waves of labor unrest in established coal industries played a key role in prompting a relatively rapid shift away from coal and towards petroleum. Indeed, a key conclusion of this study is that pressures exerted by such social movements as labor unions, nationalist movements, and environmental coalitions have played as important a role in influencing energy trajectories as the more commonly-recognized actions of governmental and corporate actors. By examining contemporary patterns of state and private investments in a cluster of new energy technologies, as well as the growing influence of environmental regulations it is argued that global dynamics are beginning to favor a shift towards new, more environmentally sustainable energy technologies. The fuel cell is highlighted as one new energy technology that is poised to enter into widespread diffusion in the coming decades, though potentials for expansions in wind, solar, small-scale hydro-electric, and modern biomass systems are also examined. Although significant hurdles must be overcome, this study concludes by

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning.

PubMed

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a "Stakeholder Feedback". Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and "blind spots". This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management.

Very high energy observations of the Galactic Centre: recent results and perspectives with CTA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terrier, Regis

2016-07-01

The central 300 pc of our Galaxy are a major laboratory for high energy astrophysics. They harbor the closest supermassive black hole (SMBH) and are the site of a sustained star formation activity. The energy released by the supernovae on the ambient medium must be very strong. Similarly, albeit extremely faint nowadays, the SMBH must have experienced episodes of intense activity in the past which can influence significantly the central regions and beyond, e.g. powering the Fermi bubbles. I review observational results at very high energies from the central region and discuss their implications and the questions they leave open. I discuss the perspectives CTA offers for Galactic Centre astrophysics.

Expert assessment concludes negative emissions scenarios may not deliver

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaughan, Naomi E.; Gough, Clair

2016-09-01

Many integrated assessment models (IAMs) rely on the availability and extensive use of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) to deliver emissions scenarios consistent with limiting climate change to below 2 °C average temperature rise. BECCS has the potential to remove carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere, delivering ‘negative emissions’. The deployment of BECCS at the scale assumed in IAM scenarios is highly uncertain: biomass energy is commonly used but not at such a scale, and CCS technologies have been demonstrated but not commercially established. Here we present the results of an expert elicitation process that explores the explicit and implicit assumptions underpinning the feasibility of BECCS in IAM scenarios. Our results show that the assumptions are considered realistic regarding technical aspects of CCS but unrealistic regarding the extent of bioenergy deployment, and development of adequate societal support and governance structures for BECCS. The results highlight concerns about the assumed magnitude of carbon dioxide removal achieved across a full BECCS supply chain, with the greatest uncertainty in bioenergy production. Unrealistically optimistic assumptions regarding the future availability of BECCS in IAM scenarios could lead to the overshoot of critical warming limits and have significant impacts on near-term mitigation options.

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

Perspective: Some Causal and Priority Language about Food Energy Supply as the Sufficient Cause of the Obesity Pandemic is Premature or Incorrect

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-09

AFRL-SA-WP-SR-2016-0015 Perspective: Some Causal and Priority Language about Food Energy Supply as the Sufficient Cause of the Obesity ...SUBTITLE Perspective: Some Causal and Priority Language about Food Energy Supply as the Sufficient Cause of the Obesity Pandemic is Premature or...3701, 11 Aug 2014. 14. ABSTRACT Several obesity experts have claimed the growth in food supply after 1965 was the primary cause of the global

Scenario management and automated scenario generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKeever, William; Gilmour, Duane; Lehman, Lynn; Stirtzinger, Anthony; Krause, Lee

2006-05-01

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4 th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

Forecast of Future Aviation Fuels. Part 1: Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

English, J. M.; Liu, C. Y.; Smith, J. L.; Yin, A. K. K.; Pan, G. A.; Ayati, M. B.; Gyamfi, M.; Arabzadah, M. R.

1978-01-01

A preliminary set of scenarios is described for depicting the air transport industry as it grows and changes, up to the year 2025. This provides the background for predicting the needs for future aviation fuels to meet the requirements of the industry as new basic sources, such as oil shale and coal, which are utilized to supplement petroleum. Five scenarios are written to encompass a range of futures from a serious resource-constrained economy to a continuous and optimistic economic growth. A unique feature is the choice of one immediate range scenario which is based on a serious interruption of economic growth occasioned by an energy shortfall. This is presumed to occur due to lags in starting a synfuels program.

Future Scenarios for Fission Based Reactors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

David, S.

2005-04-01

The coming century will see the exhaustion of standard fossil fuels, coal, gas and oil, which today represent 75% of the world energy production. Moreover, their use will have caused large-scale emission of greenhouse gases (GEG), and induced global climate change. This problem is exacerbated by a growing world energy demand. In this context, nuclear power is the only GEG-free energy source available today capable of responding significantly to this demand. Some scenarios consider a nuclear energy production of around 5 Gtoe in 2050, wich would represent a 20% share of the world energy supply. Present reactors generate energy from the fission of U-235 and require around 200 tons of natural Uranium to produce 1GWe.y of energy, equivalent to the fission of one ton of fissile material. In a scenario of a significant increase in nuclear energy generation, these standard reactors will consume the whole of the world's estimated Uranium reserves in a few decades. However, natural Uranium or Thorium ore, wich are not themselves fissile, can produce a fissile material after a neutron capture ( 239Pu and 233U respectively). In a breeder reactor, the mass of fissile material remains constant, and the fertile ore is the only material to be consumed. In this case, only 1 ton of natural ore is needed to produce 1GWe.y. Thus, the breeding concept allows optimal use of fertile ore and development of sustainable nuclear energy production for several thousand years into the future. Different sustainable nuclear reactor concepts are studied in the international forum "generation IV". Different types of coolant (Na, Pb and He) are studied for fast breeder reactors based on the Uranium cycle. The thermal Thorium cycle requires the use of a liquid fuel, which can be reprocessed online in order to extract the neutron poisons. This paper presents these different sustainable reactors, based on the Uranium or Thorium fuel cycles and will compare the different options in term of fissile

Relevance of Clean Coal Technology for India’s Energy Security: A Policy Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garg, Amit; Tiwari, Vineet; Vishwanathan, Saritha

2017-07-01

Climate change mitigation regimes are expected to impose constraints on the future use of fossil fuels in order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In 2015, 41% of total final energy consumption and 64% of power generation in India came from coal. Although almost a sixth of the total coal based thermal power generation is now super critical pulverized coal technology, the average CO2 emissions from the Indian power sector are 0.82 kg-CO2/kWh, mainly driven by coal. India has large domestic coal reserves which give it adequate energy security. There is a need to find options that allow the continued use of coal while considering the need for GHG mitigation. This paper explores options of linking GHG emission mitigation and energy security from 2000 to 2050 using the AIM/Enduse model under Business-as-Usual scenario. Our simulation analysis suggests that advanced clean coal technologies options could provide promising solutions for reducing CO2 emissions by improving energy efficiencies. This paper concludes that integrating climate change security and energy security for India is possible with a large scale deployment of advanced coal combustion technologies in Indian energy systems along with other measures.

Scenarios Based on Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Assumptions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

A set of new scenarios is being developed by the international scientific community as part of a larger program that was articulated in Moss, et al. (2009), published in Nature. A long series of meetings including climate researchers drawn from the climate modeling, impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (IAV) and integrated assessment modeling (IAM) communities have led to the development of a set of five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), which define the state of human and natural societies at a macro scale over the course of the 21st century without regard to climate mitigation or change. SSPs were designed to explore a range of possible futures consistent with greater or lesser challenges to mitigation and challenges to adaptation. They include a narrative storyline and a set of quantified measures--e.g. demographic and economic profiles--that define the high-level state of society as it evolves over the 21st century under the assumption of no significant climate feedback. SSPs can be used to develop quantitative scenarios of human Earth systems using IAMs. IAMs produce information about greenhouse gas emissions, energy systems, the economy, agriculture and land use. Each set of SSPs will have a different human Earth system realization for each IAM. Five groups from the IAM community have begun to explore the implications of SSP assumptions for emissions, energy, economy, agriculture and land use. We report the quantitative results of initial experiments from those groups. A major goal of the Moss, et al. strategy was to enable the use of CMIP5 climate model ensemble products for IAV research. CMIP5 climate scenarios used four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, defined in terms of radiative forcing in the year 2100: 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 Wm-2. There is no reason to believe that the SSPs will generate year 2100 levels of radiative forcing that correspond to the four RCP levels, though it is important that at least one SSP produce a

Looking to the future: Framing the implementation of interprofessional education and practice with scenario planning.

PubMed

Forman, Dawn; Nicol, Pam; Nicol, Paul

2015-01-01

Adapting to interprofessional education and practice requires a change of perspective for many health professionals. We aimed to explore the potential of scenario planning to bridge the understanding gap and framing strategic planning for interprofessional education (IPE) and practice (IPP), as well as to implement innovative techniques and technology for large-group scenario planning. A full-day scenario planning workshop incorporating innovative methodology was designed and offered to participants. The 71 participants included academics from nine universities, as well as service providers, government, students and consumer organisations. The outcomes were evaluated by statistical and thematic analysis of a mixed method survey questionnaire. The scenario planning method resulted in a positive response as a means of collaboratively exploring current knowledge and broadening entrenched attitudes. It was perceived to be an effective instrument for framing strategy for the implementation of IPE/IPP, with 81 percent of respondents to a post-workshop survey indicating they would consider using scenario planning in their own organisations. The scenario planning method can be used by tertiary academic institutions as a strategy in developing, implementing and embedding IPE, and for the enculturation of IPP in practice settings.

Assessing the Energy and Emissions Implications of Alternative Population Scenarios Using a State-Level Integrated Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, W.; Nolte, C. G.; Loughlin, D. H.; Ou, Y.; Smith, S. J.

2017-12-01

We use GCAM-USA to examine the sensitivity of energy demands and resulting pollutant emissions and health impacts to differing population projections. The population projections are based on future fertility, mortality, migration and education assumptions consistent with the five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) (Jones and O'Neill, 2016). By using a state-level integrated assessment model, we capture the energy and emissions implications of population changes. Additionally, we overlay heating degree days and cooling degree days calculated from climate change projections to assess the individual and combined impacts of population shifts and climate change. A unique aspect of this work is the explicit representation of important regulatory drivers, such as the Cross-State Air Pollution Rule and vehicle efficiency standards. Preliminary results indicate there are significant differences across population scenarios in both U.S. national and state-level emissions. In this presentation, we will examine the influence of underlying factors such as climate, population, and technology changes on emissions and environmental impacts at 2050.

Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

Thomason, Study Co-Lead Zachary S. Rabold, Sub-Task Lead Ylli Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario... Bajraktari Rachel D. Dubin Mary Catherine Flythe Open Scenario Study: IDA Open Scenario Repository User’s Manual iii Preface This document reports the...vii Appendices A. Identifying Scenario Components...........................................................A-1 B . Acronyms

Insights into future air quality: a multipollutant analysis of future scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

In this presentation, we will provide an update on the development and evaluation of the Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The four AQF scenarios di...

Projection of U.S. forest sector carbon sequestration under U.S. and global timber market and wood energy consumption scenarios, 2010-2060

Treesearch

Prakash Nepal; Peter J. Ince; Kenneth E. Skog; Sun J. Chang

2012-01-01

This study provides a modeling framework to examine change over time in U.S. forest sector carbon inventory (in U.S. timberland tree biomass and harvested wood products) for alternative projections of U.S. and global timber markets, including wood energy consumption, based on established IPCC/RPA scenarios. Results indicated that the U.S. forest sector’s projected...

Development of Optimal Stressor Scenarios for New Operational Energy Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-12-01

Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical information about the associated operational...from experimentation. The resulting system requirements can be used to revisit the design requirements and develop a more robust system. This process...stressor scenarios for acceptance testing. Analyzing the previous model using a design of experiments (DOE) and regression analysis provides critical

Management strategies in hospitals: scenario planning

PubMed Central

Ghanem, Mohamed; Schnoor, Jörg; Heyde, Christoph-Eckhard; Kuwatsch, Sandra; Bohn, Marco; Josten, Christoph

2015-01-01

Background: Instead of waiting for challenges to confront hospital management, doctors and managers should act in advance to optimize and sustain value-based health. This work highlights the importance of scenario planning in hospitals, proposes an elaborated definition of the stakeholders of a hospital and defines the influence factors to which hospitals are exposed to. Methodology: Based on literature analysis as well as on personal interviews with stakeholders we propose an elaborated definition of stakeholders and designed a questionnaire that integrated the following influence factors, which have relevant impact on hospital management: political/legal, economic, social, technological and environmental forces. These influence factors are examined to develop the so-called critical uncertainties. Thorough identification of uncertainties was based on a “Stakeholder Feedback”. Results: Two key uncertainties were identified and considered in this study: the development of workload for the medical staff the profit oriented performance of the medical staff. According to the developed scenarios, complementary education of the medical staff as well as of non-medical top executives and managers of hospitals was the recommended core strategy. Complementary scenario-specific strategic options should be considered whenever needed to optimize dealing with a specific future development of the health care environment. Conclusion: Strategic planning in hospitals is essential to ensure sustainable success. It considers multiple situations and integrates internal and external insights and perspectives in addition to identifying weak signals and “blind spots”. This flows into a sound planning for multiple strategic options. It is a state of the art tool that allows dealing with the increasing challenges facing hospital management. PMID:26504735

Coarse-Grained Simulations of Protein-Protein Association: An Energy Landscape Perspective

PubMed Central

Ravikumar, Krishnakumar M.; Huang, Wei; Yang, Sichun

2012-01-01

Understanding protein-protein association is crucial in revealing the molecular basis of many biological processes. Here, we describe a theoretical simulation pipeline to study protein-protein association from an energy landscape perspective. First, a coarse-grained model is implemented and its applications are demonstrated via molecular dynamics simulations for several protein complexes. Second, an enhanced search method is used to efficiently sample a broad range of protein conformations. Third, multiple conformations are identified and clustered from simulation data and further projected on a three-dimensional globe specifying protein orientations and interacting energies. Results from several complexes indicate that the crystal-like conformation is favorable on the energy landscape even if the landscape is relatively rugged with metastable conformations. A closer examination on molecular forces shows that the formation of associated protein complexes can be primarily electrostatics-driven, hydrophobics-driven, or a combination of both in stabilizing specific binding interfaces. Taken together, these results suggest that the coarse-grained simulations and analyses provide an alternative toolset to study protein-protein association occurring in functional biomolecular complexes. PMID:22947945

2016 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Logan, Jeffrey

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory is conducting a study sponsored by the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) that aims to document and implement an annual process designed to identify a realistic and timely set of input assumptions (e.g., technology cost and performance, fuel costs), and a diverse set of potential futures (standard scenarios), initially for electric sector analysis.

A model to evaluate 100-year energy mix scenarios to facilitate deep decarbonization in the southeastern United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Adkisson, Mary A.; Qualls, A. L.

The Southeast United States consumes approximately one billion megawatt-hours of electricity annually; roughly two-thirds from carbon dioxide (CO 2) emitting sources. The balance is produced by non-CO 2 emitting sources: nuclear power, hydroelectric power, and other renewables. Approximately 40% of the total CO 2 emissions come from the electric grid. The CO 2 emitting sources, coal, natural gas, and petroleum, produce approximately 372 million metric tons of CO 2 annually. The rest is divided between the transportation sector (36%), the industrial sector (20%), the residential sector (3%), and the commercial sector (2%). An Energy Mix Modeling Analysis (EMMA) tool wasmore » developed to evaluate 100-year energy mix strategies to reduce CO 2 emissions in the southeast. Current energy sector data was gathered and used to establish a 2016 reference baseline. The spreadsheet-based calculation runs 100-year scenarios based on current nuclear plant expiration dates, assumed electrical demand changes from the grid, assumed renewable power increases and efficiency gains, and assumed rates of reducing coal generation and deployment of new nuclear reactors. Within the model, natural gas electrical generation is calculated to meet any demand not met by other sources. Thus, natural gas is viewed as a transitional energy source that produces less CO 2 than coal until non-CO 2 emitting sources can be brought online. The annual production of CO 2 and spent nuclear fuel and the natural gas consumed are calculated and summed. A progression of eight preliminary scenarios show that nuclear power can substantially reduce or eliminate demand for natural gas within 100 years if it is added at a rate of only 1000 MWe per year. Any increases in renewable energy or efficiency gains can offset the need for nuclear power. However, using nuclear power to reduce CO 2 will result in significantly more spent fuel. More efficient advanced reactors can only marginally reduce the amount of spent

Integrated assessment and scenarios simulation of urban water security system in the southwest of China with system dynamics analysis.

PubMed

Yin, Su; Dongjie, Guan; Weici, Su; Weijun, Gao

2017-11-01

The demand for global freshwater is growing, while global freshwater available for human use is limited within a certain time and space. Its security has significant impacts on both the socio-economic system and ecological system. Recently, studies have focused on the urban water security system (UWSS) in terms of either water quantity or water quality. In this study, water resources, water environment, and water disaster issues in the UWSS were combined to establish an evaluation index system with system dynamics (SD) and geographic information systems (GIS). The GIS method performs qualitative analysis from the perspective of the spatial dimension; meanwhile, the SD method performs quantitative calculation about related water security problems from the perspective of the temporal dimension. We established a UWSS model for Guizhou province, China to analyze influencing factors, main driving factors, and system variation law, by using the SD method. We simulated the water security system from 2005 to 2025 under four scenarios (Guiyang scenario, Zunyi scenario, Bijie scenario and combined scenario). The results demonstrate that: (1) the severity of water security in cities is ranked as follows: three cities are secure in Guizhou province, four cities are in basic security and two cities are in a situation of insecurity from the spatial dimension of GIS through water security synthesis; and (2) the major driving factors of UWSS in Guizhou province include agricultural irrigation water demand, soil and water losses area, a ratio increase to the standard of water quality, and investment in environmental protection. A combined scenario is the best solution for UWSS by 2025 in Guizhou province under the four scenarios from the temporal dimension of SD. The results of this study provide a useful suggestion for the management of freshwater for the cities of Guizhou province in southwest China.

US National Climate Assessment (NCA) Scenarios for Assessing Our Climate Future: Issues and Methodological Perspectives Background Whitepaper for Participants

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moss, Richard H.; Engle, Nathan L.; Hall, John

This whitepaper is intended to provide a starting point for discussion at a workshop for the National Climate Assessment (NCA) that focuses on the use and development of scenarios. The paper will provide background needed by participants in the workshop in order to review options for developing and using scenarios in NCA. The paper briefly defines key terms and establishes a conceptual framework for developing consistent scenarios across different end uses and spatial scales. It reviews uses of scenarios in past U.S. national assessments and identifies potential users of and needs for scenarios for both the report scheduled for releasemore » in June 2013 and to support an ongoing distributed assessment process in sectors and regions around the country. Because scenarios prepared for the NCA will need to leverage existing research, the paper takes account of recent scientific advances and activities that could provide needed inputs. Finally, it considers potential approaches for providing methods, data, and other tools for assessment participants. We note that the term 'scenarios' has many meanings. An important goal of the whitepaper (and portions of the workshop agenda) is pedagogical (i.e., to compare different meanings and uses of the term and make assessment participants aware of the need to be explicit about types and uses of scenarios). In climate change research, scenarios have been used to establish bounds for future climate conditions and resulting effects on human and natural systems, given a defined level of greenhouse gas emissions. This quasi-predictive use contrasts with the way decision analysts typically use scenarios (i.e., to consider how robust alternative decisions or strategies may be to variation in key aspects of the future that are uncertain). As will be discussed, in climate change research and assessment, scenarios describe a range of aspects of the future, including major driving forces (both human activities and natural processes

Engineering Strategies and Methods for Avoiding Air-Quality Externalities: Dispersion Modeling, Home Energy Conservation, and Scenario Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, Andrew James

Energy conservation can improve air quality by reducing emissions from fuel combustion. The human health value retained through better air quality can then offset the cost of energy conservation. Through this thesis' innovative yet widely-accessible combination of air pollution dispersion modeling and atmospheric chemistry, it is estimated that the health value retained by avoiding emissions from Ontario's former coal-fired generating stations is 5.74/MWh (using an upper-bound value of 265,000 per year of life lost). This value is combined with energy modeling of homes in the first-ever assessment of the air-quality health benefits of low-energy buildings. It is shown that avoided health damages can equal 7% of additional construction costs of energy efficient buildings in Ontario. At 7%, health savings are a significant item in the cost analysis of efficient buildings. Looking to energy efficiency in the context of likely future low-resource natural gas scenarios, building efficient buildings today is shown to be more economically efficient than any building retrofit option. Considering future natural gas scarcity in the context of Ontario's Long-Term Energy Plan reveals that Ontario may be forced to return to coal-fired electricity. Projected coal use would result in externalities greater than $600 million/year; 80% more than air-quality externalities from Ontario's electricity in 1985. Radically aggressive investment in electricity conservation (75% reduction per capita by 2075) is one promising path forward that keeps air-quality externalities below 1985 levels. Non-health externalities are an additional concern, the quantification, and ultimately monetization, of which could be practical using emerging air pollution monitoring technologies. Energy, conservation, energy planning, and energy's externalities form a complex situation in which today's decisions are critical to a successful future. It is clear that reducing the demand for energy is essential and

An integrated assessment of energy-water nexus at the state level in the United States: Projections and analyses under different scenarios through 2095

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Patel, P. L.; Hejazi, M. I.; Kyle, P.; Davies, E. G.; Zhou, Y.; Clarke, L.; Edmonds, J.

2013-12-01

Water withdrawals for thermoelectric power plants account for approximately half of the total water use in the United States. With growing electricity demands in the future and limited water supplies in many water-scarce states in the U.S., grasping the trade-off between energy and water requires an integrated modeling approach that can capture the interactions among energy, water availability, climate, technology, and economic factors at various scales. In this study, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a technologically-detailed integrated model of the economy, energy, agriculture and land use, water, and climate systems, with 14 geopolitical regions that are further dissaggregated into up to 18 agro-ecological zones, was extended to model the electricity and water systems at the state level in the U.S. More specifically, GCAM was employed to estimate future state-level electricity generation and demands, and the associated water withdrawals and consumptions under a set of six scenarios with extensive levels of details on generation fuel portfolio, cooling technology mix, and water use intensities. The state-level estimates were compared against available inventories where good agreement was achieved on national and regional levels. We then explored the electric-sector water use up to 2095, focusing on implications from: 1) socioeconomics and growing demands, 2) the adoption of climate mitigation policy (e.g., RCP4.5 W/m2 vs. a reference scenario), 3) the transition of cooling systems, 4) constraints on electricity trading across states (full trading vs. limited trading), and 5) the adoption of water saving technologies. Overall, the fast retirement of once-through cooling, together with the gradual transition from fossil fuels dominant to a mixture of different fuels, accelerate the decline of water withdrawals and correspondingly compensate consumptive water use. Results reveal that U.S. electricity generation expands significantly as population grows

Carbon footprint of four different wastewater treatment scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diafarou, Moumouni; Mariska, Ronteltap, ,, Dr.; Damir, Brdjanovic, ,, Prof.

2014-05-01

Since the era of industrialization, concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) have tremendously increased in the atmosphere, as a result of the extensive use of fossil fuels, deforestation, improper waste management, transport, and other economic activities (Boer, 2008).This has led to a great accumulation of greenhouse gases, forming a blanket around the Earth which contributes in the so-called "Global Warming". Over the last decades, wastewater treatment has developed strongly and has become a very important asset in mitigating the impact of domestic and industrial effluents on the environment. There are many different forms of wastewater treatment, and one of the most effective treatment technology in terms COD, N and P removal, activated sludge is often criticized for its high energy use. Some other treatment concepts have a more "green" image, but it is not clear whether this image is justified based on their greenhouse gas emission. This study focuses on the estimation of GHG emissions of four different wastewater treatment configurations, both conventional and innovative systems namely: (1) Harnaschpolder, (2) Sneek, (3) EIER-Ouaga and (4) Siddhipur. This analysis is based on COD mass balance, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 guidelines for estimating CO2 and CH4, and literature review. Furthermore, the energy requirements for each of the systems were estimated based on energy survey. The study showed that an estimated daily average of 87 g of CO2 equivalent, ranging between 38 to 192 g, was derived to be the per capita CO2 emission for the four different wastewater treatment scenarios. Despite the fact that no electrical energy is used in the treatment process, the GHG emission from EIER Ouaga anaerobic pond systems is found to be the highest compared to the three other scenarios analysed. It was estimated 80% higher than the most favourable scenario (Sneek). Moreover, the results indicate that the GHGs emitted from these WWTPs are

Annual Energy Review 1999

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seiferlein, Katherine E.

A generation ago the Ford Foundation convened a group of experts to explore and assess the Nation’s energy future, and published their conclusions in A Time To Choose: America’s Energy Future (Cambridge, MA: Ballinger, 1974). The Energy Policy Project developed scenarios of U.S. potential energy use in 1985 and 2000. Now, with 1985 well behind us and 2000 nearly on the record books, it may be of interest to take a look back to see what actually happened and consider what it means for our future. The study group sketched three primary scenarios with differing assumptions about the growth ofmore » energy use. The Historical Growth scenario assumed that U.S. energy consumption would continue to expand by 3.4 percent per year, the average rate from 1950 to 1970. This scenario assumed no intentional efforts to change the pattern of consumption, only efforts to encourage development of our energy supply. The Technical Fix scenario anticipated a “conscious national effort to use energy more efficiently through engineering know-how." The Zero Energy Growth scenario, while not clamping down on the economy or calling for austerity, incorporated the Technical Fix efficiencies plus additional efficiencies. This third path anticipated that economic growth would depend less on energy-intensive industries and more on those that require less energy, i.e., the service sector. In 2000, total energy consumption was projected to be 187 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) in the Historical Growth case, 124 quadrillion Btu in the Technical Fix case, and 100 quadrillion Btu in the Zero Energy Growth case. The Annual Energy Review 1999 reports a preliminary total consumption for 1999 of 97 quadrillion Btu (see Table 1.1), and the Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook (April 2000) forecasts total energy consumption of 98 quadrillion Btu in 2000. What energy consumption path did the United States actually travel to get from 1974, when the scenarios were

Perspective: Mechanochemistry of biological and synthetic molecules

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makarov, Dmitrii E., E-mail: makarov@cm.utexas.edu

Coupling of mechanical forces and chemical transformations is central to the biophysics of molecular machines, polymer chemistry, fracture mechanics, tribology, and other disciplines. As a consequence, the same physical principles and theoretical models should be applicable in all of those fields; in fact, similar models have been invoked (and often repeatedly reinvented) to describe, for example, cell adhesion, dry and wet friction, propagation of cracks, and action of molecular motors. This perspective offers a unified view of these phenomena, described in terms of chemical kinetics with rates of elementary steps that are force dependent. The central question is then tomore » describe how the rate of a chemical transformation (and its other measurable properties such as the transition path) depends on the applied force. I will describe physical models used to answer this question and compare them with experimental measurements, which employ single-molecule force spectroscopy and which become increasingly common. Multidimensionality of the underlying molecular energy landscapes and the ensuing frequent misalignment between chemical and mechanical coordinates result in a number of distinct scenarios, each showing a nontrivial force dependence of the reaction rate. I will discuss these scenarios, their commonness (or its lack), and the prospects for their experimental validation. Finally, I will discuss open issues in the field.« less

Dissecting Leishmania infantum Energy Metabolism - A Systems Perspective

PubMed Central

Subramanian, Abhishek; Jhawar, Jitesh; Sarkar, Ram Rup

2015-01-01

Leishmania infantum, causative agent of visceral leishmaniasis in humans, illustrates a complex lifecycle pertaining to two extreme environments, namely, the gut of the sandfly vector and human macrophages. Leishmania is capable of dynamically adapting and tactically switching between these critically hostile situations. The possible metabolic routes ventured by the parasite to achieve this exceptional adaptation to its varying environments are still poorly understood. In this study, we present an extensively reconstructed energy metabolism network of Leishmania infantum as an attempt to identify certain strategic metabolic routes preferred by the parasite to optimize its survival in such dynamic environments. The reconstructed network consists of 142 genes encoding for enzymes performing 237 reactions distributed across five distinct model compartments. We annotated the subcellular locations of different enzymes and their reactions on the basis of strong literature evidence and sequence-based detection of cellular localization signal within a protein sequence. To explore the diverse features of parasite metabolism the metabolic network was implemented and analyzed as a constraint-based model. Using a systems-based approach, we also put forth an extensive set of lethal reaction knockouts; some of which were validated using published data on Leishmania species. Performing a robustness analysis, the model was rigorously validated and tested for the secretion of overflow metabolites specific to Leishmania under varying extracellular oxygen uptake rate. Further, the fate of important non-essential amino acids in L. infantum metabolism was investigated. Stage-specific scenarios of L. infantum energy metabolism were incorporated in the model and key metabolic differences were outlined. Analysis of the model revealed the essentiality of glucose uptake, succinate fermentation, glutamate biosynthesis and an active TCA cycle as driving forces for parasite energy metabolism

China's transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions from a global perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Xiang; Chen, Wenying; Eom, Jiyong

2015-07-01

ABSTRACT Rapidly growing energy demand from China's transportation sector in the last two decades have raised concerns over national energy security, local air pollution, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and there is broad consensus that China's transportation sector will continue to grow in the coming decades. This paper explores the future development of China's transportation sector in terms of service demands, final energy consumption, and CO2 emissions, and their interactions with global climate policy. This study develops a detailed China transportation energy model that is nested in an integrated assessment model—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM)—to evaluate the long-term energy consumptionmore » and CO2 emissions of China's transportation sector from a global perspective. The analysis suggests that, without major policy intervention, future transportation energy consumption and CO2 emissions will continue to rapidly increase and the transportation sector will remain heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Although carbon price policies may significantly reduce the sector's energy consumption and CO2 emissions, the associated changes in service demands and modal split will be modest, particularly in the passenger transport sector. The analysis also suggests that it is more difficult to decarbonize the transportation sector than other sectors of the economy, primarily owing to its heavy reliance on petroleum products.« less

Climate impact analysis of waste treatment scenarios--thermal treatment of commercial and pretreated waste versus landfilling in Austria.

PubMed

Ragossnig, A M; Wartha, C; Pomberger, R

2009-11-01

A major challenge for modern waste management lies in a smart integration of waste-to-energy installations in local energy systems in such a way that the energy efficiency of the waste-to-energy plant is optimized and that the energy contained in the waste is, therefore, optimally utilized. The extent of integration of thermal waste treatment processes into regular energy supply systems plays a major role with regard to climate control. In this research, the specific waste management situation looked at scenarios aiming at maximizing the energy recovery from waste (i.e. actual scenario and waste-to-energy process with 75% energy efficiency [22.5% electricity, 52.5% heat]) yield greenhouse gas emission savings due to the fact that more greenhouse gas emissions are avoided in the energy sector than caused by the various waste treatment processes. Comparing dedicated waste-to-energy-systems based on the combined heat and power (CHP) process with concepts based on sole electricity production, the energy efficiency proves to be crucial with regard to climate control. This underlines the importance of choosing appropriate sites for waste-to-energy-plants. This research was looking at the effect with regard to the climate impact of various waste management scenarios that could be applied alternatively by a private waste management company in Austria. The research is, therefore, based on a specific set of data for the waste streams looked at (waste characteristics, logistics needed, etc.). Furthermore, the investigated scenarios have been defined based on the actual available alternatives with regard to the usage of treatment plants for this specific company. The standard scenarios for identifying climate impact implications due to energy recovery from waste are based on the respective marginal energy data for the power and heat generation facilities/industrial processes in Austria.

Clean energy storage technology in the making: An innovation systems perspective on flywheel energy storage.

PubMed

Wicki, Samuel; Hansen, Erik G

2017-09-20

The emergence and diffusion of green and sustainable technologies is full of obstacles and has therefore become an important area of research. We are interested in further understanding the dynamics between entrepreneurial experimentation, market formation, and institutional contexts, together playing a decisive role for successful diffusion of such technologies. Accordingly, we study these processes by adopting a technological innovation system perspective focusing on actors, networks, and institutions as well as the functions provided by them. Using a qualitative case study research design, we focus on the high-speed flywheel energy storage technology. As flywheels are based on a rotating mass allowing short-term storage of energy in kinetic form, they represent an environmentally-friendly alternative to electrochemical batteries and therefore can play an important role in sustainable energy transitions. Our contribution is threefold: First , regarding the flywheel energy storage technology, our findings reveal two subsystems and related markets in which development took different courses. In the automotive sector, flywheels are developing well as a braking energy recovery technology under the influence of two motors of innovation. In the electricity sector, they are stagnating at the stage of demonstration projects because of two important system weaknesses that counteract demand for storage. Second , we contribute to the theory of technological innovation systems by better understanding the internal dynamics between different functions of an innovation system as well as between the innovation system and its (external) contextual structures. Our third contribution is methodological. According to our best knowledge, we are the first to use system dynamics to (qualitatively) analyze and visualize dynamics between the diverse functions of innovation systems with the aim of enabling a better understanding of complex and iterative system processes. The paper also

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE PAGES

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; ...

2016-09-28

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. Here, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide rangemore » of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. Furthermore, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2°C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. In order to serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

2016-01-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate amore » wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

2016-09-01

Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially explicit

Science for decision making: Transmitting hazard science using catastrophic scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A.

2010-12-01

The ShakeOut and ARkStorm scenarios are scientifically-based, multi-disciplinary efforts to describe the damages and consequences of large, but plausible, natural disasters for use in emergency management and other planning. The ShakeOut earthquake scenario, completed in 2008, posits the occurrence of a major earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. It was used by more than 5,000 emergency personnel in a California statewide exercise, and it underpins the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) Catastrophic Plan for Southern California. The ARkStorm winter storm scenario, to be completed in 2010, posits the occurrence of a statewide disaster like the storm that occurred during 1861-1862. The ARkStorm scenario will culminate with two planning summits comprised of federal and state agencies, because such an event would exceed local response and recovery capabilities. This talk will address the following questions that are critical to transmitting science for decision making with examples and observations from the two scenarios: 1) Who are the end users of the scenarios, what types of decisions can scenarios inform, and how are stakeholders engaged? 2) What forms of information and processes work best to communicate and apply the hazard science? 3) What are the challenges of using science in decision making? 4) What future directions shall we pursue? From my perspective as coordinator of economic consequences analyses for the two scenarios, I will share insights to these questions. Framing stakeholder decisions in terms of scale (e.g., household to State) and disaster phase (e.g., emergency response, recovery, and mitigation) allows us to align methods of stakeholder engagement with stakeholder decision making. For these regional-scale scenarios, the methods of engagement included stakeholder participation in project vision, scenario construction workshops, presentations, conferences, and emergency response and recovery exercises. Champions (self

CORSICA modelling of ITER hybrid operation scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, S. H.; Bulmer, R. H.; Campbell, D. J.; Casper, T. A.; LoDestro, L. L.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Snipes, J. A.

2016-12-01

The hybrid operating mode observed in several tokamaks is characterized by further enhancement over the high plasma confinement (H-mode) associated with reduced magneto-hydro-dynamic (MHD) instabilities linked to a stationary flat safety factor (q ) profile in the core region. The proposed ITER hybrid operation is currently aiming at operating for a long burn duration (>1000 s) with a moderate fusion power multiplication factor, Q , of at least 5. This paper presents candidate ITER hybrid operation scenarios developed using a free-boundary transport modelling code, CORSICA, taking all relevant physics and engineering constraints into account. The ITER hybrid operation scenarios have been developed by tailoring the 15 MA baseline ITER inductive H-mode scenario. Accessible operation conditions for ITER hybrid operation and achievable range of plasma parameters have been investigated considering uncertainties on the plasma confinement and transport. ITER operation capability for avoiding the poloidal field coil current, field and force limits has been examined by applying different current ramp rates, flat-top plasma currents and densities, and pre-magnetization of the poloidal field coils. Various combinations of heating and current drive (H&CD) schemes have been applied to study several physics issues, such as the plasma current density profile tailoring, enhancement of the plasma energy confinement and fusion power generation. A parameterized edge pedestal model based on EPED1 added to the CORSICA code has been applied to hybrid operation scenarios. Finally, fully self-consistent free-boundary transport simulations have been performed to provide information on the poloidal field coil voltage demands and to study the controllability with the ITER controllers. Extended from Proc. 24th Int. Conf. on Fusion Energy (San Diego, 2012) IT/P1-13.

Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

PubMed

Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

2015-11-01

The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

Untangling Consequential Futures: Discovering Self-Consistent Regional and Global Multi-Sector Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lamontagne, J. R.; Reed, P. M.

2017-12-01

Impacts and adaptations to global change largely occur at regional scales, yet they are shaped globally through the interdependent evolution of the climate, energy, agriculture, and industrial systems. It is important for regional actors to account for the impacts of global changes on their systems in a globally consistent but regionally relevant way. This can be challenging because emerging global reference scenarios may not reflect regional challenges. Likewise, regionally specific scenarios may miss important global feedbacks. In this work, we contribute a scenario discovery framework to identify regionally-specific decision relevant scenarios from an ensemble of scenarios of global change. To this end, we generated a large ensemble of time evolving regional, multi-sector global change scenarios by a full factorial sampling of the underlying assumptions in the emerging shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs), using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Statistical and visual analytics were then used to discover which SSP assumptions are particularly consequential for various regions, considering a broad range of time-evolving metrics that encompass multiple spatial scales and sectors. In an illustrative examples, we identify the most important global change narratives to inform water resource scenarios for several geographic regions using the proposed scenario discovery framework. Our results highlight the importance of demographic and agricultural evolution compared to technical improvements in the energy sector. We show that narrowly sampling a few canonical reference scenarios provides a very narrow view of the consequence space, increasing the risk of tacitly ignoring major impacts. Even optimistic scenarios contain unintended, disproportionate regional impacts and intergenerational transfers of consequence. Formulating consequential scenarios of deeply and broadly uncertain futures requires a better exploration of which quantitative measures of

Deforestation scenarios for the Bolivian lowlands.

PubMed

Tejada, Graciela; Dalla-Nora, Eloi; Cordoba, Diana; Lafortezza, Raffaele; Ovando, Alex; Assis, Talita; Aguiar, Ana Paula

2016-01-01

all Bolivian lowlands reaching 37,944,434 ha and leaves small forest patches in a few PAs. These deforestation scenarios are not meant to predict the future but to show how current and future decisions carried out by the neo-extractivist practices of MAS government could affect deforestation and carbon emission trends. In this perspective, recognizing land use systems as open and dynamic systems is a central challenge in designing efficient land use policies and managing a transition towards sustainable land use. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy efficiency in the U.S. residential sector: An engineering and economic assessment of opportunities for large energy savings and greenhouse gas emissions reductions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima de Azevedo, Ines Margarida

Energy efficiency and conservation is a very promising part of a portfolio of the needed strategies to mitigate climate change. Several technologies and energy efficiency measures in the residential sector offer potential for large energy savings. However, while energy efficiency options are currently considered as a means of reducing carbon emissions, there is still large uncertainty about the effect of such measures on overall carbon savings. The first part of this thesis provides a national assessment of the energy efficiency potential in the residential sector under several different scenarios, which include the perspectives of different economic agents (consumers, utilities, ESCOs, and a society). The scenarios also include maximizing energy, electricity or carbon dioxide savings. The second part of this thesis deals with a detailed assessment of the potential for white-light LEDs for energy and carbon dioxide savings in the U.S. commercial and residential sectors. Solid-state lighting shows great promise as a source of efficient, affordable, color-balanced white light. Indeed, assuming market discount rates, the present work demonstrates that white solid-state lighting already has a lower levelized annual cost (LAC) than incandescent bulbs and that it will be lower than that of the most efficient fluorescent bulbs by the end of this decade. However, a large literature indicates that households do not make their decisions in terms of simple expected economic value. The present analysis shows that incorporating the findings from literature on high implicit discount rates from households when performing decisions towards efficient technologies delays the adoption of white LEDs by a couple of years. After a review of the technology, the present work compares the electricity consumption, carbon emissions and cost-effectiveness of current lighting technologies, when accounting for expected performance evolution through 2015. Simulations of lighting electricity

Pre-Service Teachers' Perspectives on Using Scenario-Based Virtual Worlds in Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy-Clark, Shannon

2011-01-01

This paper presents the findings of a study on the current knowledge and attitudes of pre-service teachers on the use of scenario-based multi-user virtual environments in science education. The 28 participants involved in the study were introduced to "Virtual Singapura," a multi-user virtual environment, and completed an open-ended questionnaire.…

Carbon footprint and energy use of food waste management options for fresh fruit and vegetables from supermarkets.

PubMed

Eriksson, Mattias; Spångberg, Johanna

2017-02-01

Food waste is a problem with economic, environmental and social implications, making it both important and complex. Previous studies have addressed food waste management options at the less prioritised end of the waste hierarchy, but information on more prioritised levels is also needed when selecting the best available waste management options. Investigating the global warming potential and primary energy use of different waste management options offers a limited perspective, but is still important for validating impacts from the waste hierarchy in a local context. This study compared the effect on greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use of different food waste management scenarios in the city of Växjö, Sweden. A life cycle assessment was performed for four waste management scenarios (incineration, anaerobic digestion, conversion and donation), using five food products (bananas, tomatoes, apples, oranges and sweet peppers) from the fresh fruit and vegetables department in two supermarkets as examples when treated as individual waste streams. For all five waste streams, the established waste hierarchy was a useful tool for prioritising the various options, since the re-use options (conversion and donation) reduced the greenhouse gas emissions and the primary energy use to a significantly higher degree than the energy recovery options (incineration and anaerobic digestion). The substitution of other products and services had a major impact on the results in all scenarios. Re-use scenarios where food was replaced therefore had much higher potential to reduce environmental impact than the energy recovery scenarios where fossil fuel was replaced. This is due to the high level of resources needed to produce food compared with production of fossil fuels, but also to fresh fruit and vegetables having a high water content, making them inefficient as energy carriers. Waste valorisation measures should therefore focus on directing each type of food to the waste

Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

PubMed

Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

2014-01-01

Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

Assessement of user needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger-Knutti, Jacqueline

2016-04-01

scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. The survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy sector for the combination of wind speed and global radiation (to assess energy production). The majority of interviewees appreciates to have the new scenarios with respect to the same reference period as in CH2011 due to comparability purposes. The survey also investigated the incorporation of provided scenario uncertainty into the businesses of the users. The survey shows that this largely depends on the type of users: while intensive users often can handle uncertainties, there are a lot of other users that either cannot or purposely do not make use of uncertainty. Results of the user survey will be presented and the consequences for the next generation of Swiss climate change scenarios are discussed.

Scenarios for future biodiversity loss due to multiple drivers reveal conflict between mitigating climate change and preserving biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Thomas W. R.; Lenton, Timothy M.

2013-06-01

We assess the potential for future biodiversity loss due to three interacting factors: energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change. We develop four scenarios to 2050 with different combinations of high or low agricultural efficiency and high or low meat diets, and use species-energy and species-area relationships to estimate their effects on biodiversity. In our scenarios, natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the increasing dietary demands of the global population. Biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is used as a means of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere (and offsetting fossil fuel emissions). BECCS is based on waste biomass, with the addition of bio-energy crops only when already managed land is no longer needed for food production. Forecast biodiversity loss from natural biomes increases by more than a factor of five in going from high to low agricultural efficiency scenarios, due to destruction of productive habitats by the expansion of pasture. Biodiversity loss from energy withdrawal on managed land varies by a factor of two across the scenarios. Biodiversity loss due to climate change varies only modestly across the scenarios. Climate change is lowest in the ‘low meat high efficiency’ scenario, in which by 2050 around 660 million hectares of pasture are converted to biomass plantation that is used for BECCS. However, the resulting withdrawal of energy from managed ecosystems has a large negative impact on biodiversity. Although the effects of energy withdrawal and climate change on biodiversity cannot be directly compared, this suggests that using bio-energy to tackle climate change in order to limit biodiversity loss could instead have the opposite effect.

Developing clinical scenarios from a European perspective: successes and challenges.

PubMed

Wiseman, Allison; Horton, Khim

2011-10-01

This paper presents developmental work involving students from the University College Dublin (UCD), Ireland (n=9), University of Surrey, England (n=8) and University of Ljubljana and University of Maribor, Slovenia (n=5) participating in the Erasmus Intensive Programme. The Erasmus programme offers a two week 'Summer School' in the Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Maribor, Slovenia. Using a participatory approach, facilitators from both the UCD and Surrey engaged with students from all of the universities to develop scenarios for simulated learning experiences, in the care of older people, for utilisation on an e learning facility and within the simulated clinical learning environment. Students developed key transferable skills in learning, such as information literacy, cultural diversity, team working, communication, and clinical skills acquisition whilst exploring differences in healthcare delivery in other European countries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimization of vibratory energy harvesters with stochastic parametric uncertainty: a new perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haji Hosseinloo, Ashkan; Turitsyn, Konstantin

2016-04-01

Vibration energy harvesting has been shown as a promising power source for many small-scale applications mainly because of the considerable reduction in the energy consumption of the electronics and scalability issues of the conventional batteries. However, energy harvesters may not be as robust as the conventional batteries and their performance could drastically deteriorate in the presence of uncertainty in their parameters. Hence, study of uncertainty propagation and optimization under uncertainty is essential for proper and robust performance of harvesters in practice. While all studies have focused on expectation optimization, we propose a new and more practical optimization perspective; optimization for the worst-case (minimum) power. We formulate the problem in a generic fashion and as a simple example apply it to a linear piezoelectric energy harvester. We study the effect of parametric uncertainty in its natural frequency, load resistance, and electromechanical coupling coefficient on its worst-case power and then optimize for it under different confidence levels. The results show that there is a significant improvement in the worst-case power of thus designed harvester compared to that of a naively-optimized (deterministically-optimized) harvester.

Coarse-grained simulations of protein-protein association: an energy landscape perspective.

PubMed

Ravikumar, Krishnakumar M; Huang, Wei; Yang, Sichun

2012-08-22

Understanding protein-protein association is crucial in revealing the molecular basis of many biological processes. Here, we describe a theoretical simulation pipeline to study protein-protein association from an energy landscape perspective. First, a coarse-grained model is implemented and its applications are demonstrated via molecular dynamics simulations for several protein complexes. Second, an enhanced search method is used to efficiently sample a broad range of protein conformations. Third, multiple conformations are identified and clustered from simulation data and further projected on a three-dimensional globe specifying protein orientations and interacting energies. Results from several complexes indicate that the crystal-like conformation is favorable on the energy landscape even if the landscape is relatively rugged with metastable conformations. A closer examination on molecular forces shows that the formation of associated protein complexes can be primarily electrostatics-driven, hydrophobics-driven, or a combination of both in stabilizing specific binding interfaces. Taken together, these results suggest that the coarse-grained simulations and analyses provide an alternative toolset to study protein-protein association occurring in functional biomolecular complexes. Copyright © 2012 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Operational management of offshore energy assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kolios, A. J.; Martinez Luengo, M.

2016-02-01

Energy assets and especially those deployed offshore are subject to a variety of harsh operational and environmental conditions which lead to deterioration of their performance and structural capacity over time. The aim of reduction of CAPEX in new installations shifts focus to operational management to monitor and assess performance of critical assets ensuring their fitness for service throughout their service life and also to provide appropriate and effective information towards requalification or other end of life scenarios, optimizing the OPEX. Over the last decades, the offshore oil & gas industry has developed and applied various approaches in operational management of assets through Structural Health and Condition Monitoring (SHM/CM) systems which can be, at a certain level, transferable to offshore renewable installations. This paper aims to highlight the key differences between offshore oil & gas and renewable energy assets from a structural integrity and reliability perspective, provide a comprehensive overview of different approaches that are available and applicable, and distinguish the benefits of such systems in the efficient operation of offshore energy assets.

Insights into future air quality: Analysis of future emissions scenarios using the MARKAL model

EPA Science Inventory

This presentation will provide an update on the development and evaluation of four Air Quality Futures (AQF) scenarios. These scenarios represent widely different assumptions regarding the evolution of the U.S. energy system over the next 40 years. The primary differences between...

Dirac δ -function potential in quasiposition representation of a minimal-length scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusson, M. F.; Gonçalves, A. Oakes O.; Francisco, R. O.; Furtado, R. G.; Fabris, J. C.; Nogueira, J. A.

2018-03-01

A minimal-length scenario can be considered as an effective description of quantum gravity effects. In quantum mechanics the introduction of a minimal length can be accomplished through a generalization of Heisenberg's uncertainty principle. In this scenario, state eigenvectors of the position operator are no longer physical states and the representation in momentum space or a representation in a quasiposition space must be used. In this work, we solve the Schroedinger equation with a Dirac δ -function potential in quasiposition space. We calculate the bound state energy and the coefficients of reflection and transmission for the scattering states. We show that leading corrections are of order of the minimal length ({ O}(√{β })) and the coefficients of reflection and transmission are no longer the same for the Dirac delta well and barrier as in ordinary quantum mechanics. Furthermore, assuming that the equivalence of the 1s state energy of the hydrogen atom and the bound state energy of the Dirac {{δ }}-function potential in the one-dimensional case is kept in a minimal-length scenario, we also find that the leading correction term for the ground state energy of the hydrogen atom is of the order of the minimal length and Δx_{\\min } ≤ 10^{-25} m.

Biohydrogen production from microalgal biomass: energy requirement, CO2 emissions and scale-up scenarios.

PubMed

Ferreira, Ana F; Ortigueira, Joana; Alves, Luís; Gouveia, Luísa; Moura, Patrícia; Silva, Carla

2013-09-01

This paper presents a life cycle inventory of biohydrogen production by Clostridium butyricum through the fermentation of the whole Scenedesmus obliquus biomass. The main purpose of this work was to determine the energy consumption and CO2 emissions during the production of hydrogen. This was accomplished through the fermentation of the microalgal biomass cultivated in an outdoor raceway pond and the preparation of the inoculum and culture media. The scale-up scenarios are discussed aiming for a potential application to a fuel cell hybrid taxi fleet. The H2 yield obtained was 7.3 g H2/kg of S. obliquus dried biomass. The results show that the production of biohydrogen required 71-100 MJ/MJ(H2) and emitted about 5-6 kg CO2/MJ(H2). Other studies and production technologies were taken into account to discuss an eventual process scale-up. Increased production rates of microalgal biomass and biohydrogen are necessary for bioH2 to become competitive with conventional production pathways. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing Interventions to Manage West Nile Virus Using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis with Risk Scenarios

PubMed Central

Hongoh, Valerie; Campagna, Céline; Panic, Mirna; Samuel, Onil; Gosselin, Pierre; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Ravel, André; Samoura, Karim; Michel, Pascal

2016-01-01

The recent emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America highlights vulnerability to climate sensitive diseases and stresses the importance of preventive efforts to reduce their public health impact. Effective prevention involves reducing environmental risk of exposure and increasing adoption of preventive behaviours, both of which depend on knowledge and acceptance of such measures. When making operational decisions about disease prevention and control, public health must take into account a wide range of operational, environmental, social and economic considerations in addition to intervention effectiveness. The current study aimed to identify, assess and rank possible risk reduction measures taking into account a broad set of criteria and perspectives applicable to the management of WNV in Quebec under increasing transmission risk scenarios, some of which may be related to ongoing warming in higher-latitude regions. A participatory approach was used to collect information on categories of concern to relevant stakeholders with respect to WNV prevention and control. Multi-criteria decision analysis was applied to examine stakeholder perspectives and their effect on strategy rankings under increasing transmission risk scenarios. Twenty-three preventive interventions were retained for evaluation using eighteen criteria identified by stakeholders. Combined evaluations revealed that, at an individual-level, inspecting window screen integrity, wearing light colored, long clothing, eliminating peridomestic larval sites and reducing outdoor activities at peak times were top interventions under six WNV transmission scenarios. At a regional-level, the use of larvicides was a preferred strategy in five out of six scenarios, while use of adulticides and dissemination of sterile male mosquitoes were found to be among the least favoured interventions in almost all scenarios. Our findings suggest that continued public health efforts aimed at reinforcing individual

A triple fouling layers perspective on evaluation of membrane fouling under different scenarios of membrane bioreactor operation

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the main factors affecting membrane fouling in MBRs is operational conditions. In this study the influence of aeration rate, filtration mode, and SRT on hollow fiber membrane fouling was investigated using a triple fouling layers perspective. The sludge microbial population distribution was also determined by PCR method. Through various applied operational scenarios the optimal conditions were: aeration rate of 15 LPM; relaxation mode with 40s duration and 8 min. interval; and SRT of 30 days. The similarity between SMP variations in triple fouling layers with its corresponding hydraulic resistance confirmed the effect of SMP on membrane fouling. Among three fouling fractions, the upper (rinsed) layer found to have the most effect on membrane fouling which implies the critical role of aeration, but as for multilateral effects of aeration, the optimal aeration rate should be determined more precisely. Relaxation interval was more effective than its duration for fouling control. SRT variations in addition to influencing the amount of SMP, also affect on the structure of these material. At longer SRTs (20, 30 days) a greater percentage of SMP could penetrate into the membrane pores and for shorter SRTs they accumulate more on membrane surface. Results showed that there is a very good correlation between total hydraulic resistance (Log R) and protein to carbohydrate ratio at the rinsed layer (P1/C1). Considering significant effects of aeration and SRT conditions on this ratio (according to data), it is very determinative to apply the optimal aeration and SRT conditions. PMID:25002969

Disentangling Hadronic and Leptonic Cascade Scenarios from the Very-High-Energy Gamma-Ray Emission of Distant Hard-Spectrum Blazars

DOE PAGES

Takami, Hajime; Murase, Kohta; Dermer, Charles D.

2013-06-26

We show that recent data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope have revealed about a dozen distant hard-spectrum blazars that have very-high-energy (VHE; ≳ 100 eV) photons associated with them, but most of them have not yet been detected by imaging atmospheric Cherenkov Telescopes. Most of these high-energy gamma-ray spectra, like those of other extreme high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects, can be well explained either by gamma rays emitted at the source or by cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays, as we show specifically for KUV 00311–1938. We consider the prospects for detection of the VHE sources by the plannedmore » Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) and show how it can distinguish the two scenarios by measuring the integrated flux above ~500 GeV (depending on source redshift) for several luminous sources with z ≲ 1 in the sample. Strong evidence for the origin of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays could be obtained from VHE observations with CTA. Depending on redshift, if the often quoted redshift of KUV 00311–1938 (z = 0.61) is believed, then preliminary H.E.S.S. data favor cascades induced by ultra-high-energy cosmic rays. Lastly, accurate redshift measurements of hard-spectrum blazars are essential for this study.« less

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M. W.; Heath, G.; Sandor, D.

2013-04-01

Achieving the Department of Energy target of an 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 depends on transportation-related strategies combining technology innovation, market adoption, and changes in consumer behavior. This study examines expanding low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure to achieve deep GHG emissions reductions, with an emphasis on fuel production facilities and retail components serving light-duty vehicles. Three distinct low-carbon fuel supply scenarios are examined: Portfolio: Successful deployment of a range of advanced vehicle and fuel technologies; Combustion: Market dominance by hybridized internal combustion engine vehicles fueled by advanced biofuels and natural gas; Electrification: Market dominance by electric drive vehiclesmore » in the LDV sector, including battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell vehicles, that are fueled by low-carbon electricity and hydrogen. A range of possible low-carbon fuel demand outcomes are explored in terms of the scale and scope of infrastructure expansion requirements and evaluated based on fuel costs, energy resource utilization, fuel production infrastructure expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion for LDVs. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored transportation-related strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence.« less

Floating Offshore Wind in California: Gross Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Speer, Bethany; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

Construction of the first offshore wind farm in the United States began in 2015, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) has commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical, large-scale deployment scenarios for California: 16more » GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario A) and 10 GW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). The results of this analysis can be used to better understand the general scales of economic opportunities that could result from offshore wind development. Results show total state gross domestic product (GDP) impacts of $16.2 billion in Scenario B or $39.7 billion in Scenario A for construction; and $3.5 billion in Scenario B or $7.9 billion in Scenario A for the operations phases.« less

Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogelj, Joeri; Popp, Alexander; Calvin, Katherine V.; Luderer, Gunnar; Emmerling, Johannes; Gernaat, David; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Strefler, Jessica; Hasegawa, Tomoko; Marangoni, Giacomo; Krey, Volker; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Doelman, Jonathan; Drouet, Laurent; Edmonds, Jae; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Havlík, Petr; Humpenöder, Florian; Stehfest, Elke; Tavoni, Massimo

2018-04-01

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m-2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m-2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale low-carbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m-2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

Oil palm biomass utilization as an energy source and its possibility use for polygeneration scenarios in Langsa City, Aceh Province, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hani, M. R.; Mahidin, M.; Husin, H.; Hamdani, H.; Khairil, K.

2018-03-01

This article deals with the discussion on the recent status of oil palm biomass utilization as an energy source and its possibility use for polygeneration system. The discussion focused only on the energy viewpoint. At this point, many projects and research have been developed in order to utilize the oil palm biomass to meet the energy demand of industries and communities, especially in the largest producing countries: Indonesia and Malaysia; and a few in Thailand, Africa, Latin America and Europe. Through the simulation work in the case study, it is evident that the government of Langsa City can fulfill the fresh water to their community and electricity to Langsa Harbor only by using EFB and PKS from one POM with the generated power of 12 MW, while the desalination plant consumes about 7 MW of electricity. If all potency of biomass from all POMs in Aceh Timur and Aceh Tamiang, without the combination of other primary energy sources is used, Langsa City might earn surplus of energy. The use of the oil palm biomass for polygeneration scenarios is possible and feasible from the technical point of view.

JET DT Scenario Extrapolation and Optimization with METIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urban, Jakub; Jaulmes, Fabien; Artaud, Jean-Francois

2017-10-01

Prospective JET (Joint European Torus) DT operation scenarios are modelled by the fast integrated code METIS. METIS combines scaling laws, e.g. for global and pedestal energy or density peaking, with simplified transport and source models, while retaining fundamental nonlinear couplings, in particular in the fusion power. We have tuned METIS parameters to match JET-ILW high performance experiments, including baseline and hybrid. Based on recent observations, we assume a weaker input power scaling than IPB98 and a 10% confinement improvement due to the higher ion mass. The rapidity of METIS is utilized to scan the performance of JET DT scenarios with respect to fundamental parameters, such as plasma current, magnetic field, density or heating power. Simplified, easily parameterized waveforms are used to study the effect the ramp-up speed or heating timing. Finally, an efficient Bayesian optimizer is employed to seek the most performant scenarios in terms of the fusion power or gain.

Perspectives in Energy Research: How Can We Change the Game? (2011 Summit)

ScienceCinema

Isaacs, Eric

2018-02-12

Eric Issacs, Director of DOE's Argonne National Laboratory, discussed the role of the EFRC Program and National Laboratories in developing game-changing energy technologies in the EFRC Summit session titled "Leading Perspectives in Energy Research." The 2011 EFRC Summit and Forum brought together the EFRC community and science and policy leaders from universities, national laboratories, industry and government to discuss "Science for our Nation's Energy Future." In August 2009, the Office of Science established 46 Energy Frontier Research Centers. The EFRCs are collaborative research efforts intended to accelerate high-risk, high-reward fundamental research, the scientific basis for transformative energy technologies of the future. These Centers involve universities, national laboratories, nonprofit organizations, and for-profit firms, singly or in partnerships, selected by scientific peer review. They are funded at $2 to $5 million per year for a total planned DOE commitment of $777 million over the initial five-year award period, pending Congressional appropriations. These integrated, multi-investigator Centers are conducting fundamental research focusing on one or more of several “grand challenges” and use-inspired “basic research needs” recently identified in major strategic planning efforts by the scientific community. The purpose of the EFRCs is to integrate the talents and expertise of leading scientists in a setting designed to accelerate research that transforms the future of energy and the environment.

A chemistry and material perspective on lithium redox flow batteries towards high-density electrical energy storage.

PubMed

Zhao, Yu; Ding, Yu; Li, Yutao; Peng, Lele; Byon, Hye Ryung; Goodenough, John B; Yu, Guihua

2015-11-21

Electrical energy storage system such as secondary batteries is the principle power source for portable electronics, electric vehicles and stationary energy storage. As an emerging battery technology, Li-redox flow batteries inherit the advantageous features of modular design of conventional redox flow batteries and high voltage and energy efficiency of Li-ion batteries, showing great promise as efficient electrical energy storage system in transportation, commercial, and residential applications. The chemistry of lithium redox flow batteries with aqueous or non-aqueous electrolyte enables widened electrochemical potential window thus may provide much greater energy density and efficiency than conventional redox flow batteries based on proton chemistry. This Review summarizes the design rationale, fundamentals and characterization of Li-redox flow batteries from a chemistry and material perspective, with particular emphasis on the new chemistries and materials. The latest advances and associated challenges/opportunities are comprehensively discussed.

About the Need of Combining Power Market and Power Grid Model Results for Future Energy System Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mende, Denis; Böttger, Diana; Löwer, Lothar; Becker, Holger; Akbulut, Alev; Stock, Sebastian

2018-02-01

The European power grid infrastructure faces various challenges due to the expansion of renewable energy sources (RES). To conduct investigations on interactions between power generation and the power grid, models for the power market as well as for the power grid are necessary. This paper describes the basic functionalities and working principles of both types of models as well as steps to couple power market results and the power grid model. The combination of these models is beneficial in terms of gaining realistic power flow scenarios in the grid model and of being able to pass back results of the power flow and restrictions to the market model. Focus is laid on the power grid model and possible application examples like algorithms in grid analysis, operation and dynamic equipment modelling.

Keratoprosthesis: Current global scenario and a broad Indian perspective

PubMed Central

Iyer, Geetha; Srinivasan, Bhaskar; Agarwal, Shweta; Talele, Deepti; Rishi, Ekta; Rishi, Pukhraj; Krishnamurthy, Sripriya; Vijaya, Lingam; Subramanian, Nirmala; Somasundaram, Shanmugasundaram

2018-01-01

Keratoprosthesis (Kpro) forms the last resort for bilateral end-stage corneal blindness. The Boston Type 1 and 2 Kpros, the modified osteo-odonto Kpro and the osteo-Kpro are the more frequently and commonly performed Kpros, and this review attempts to compile the current data available on these Kpros worldwide from large single-center studies and compare the indications and outcomes with Kpros in the Indian scenario. Although the indications have significantly expanded over the years and the complications have reduced with modifications in design and postoperative regimen, these are procedures that require an exclusive setup, and a commitment toward long-term follow-up and post-Kpro care. The last decade has seen a surge in the number of Kpro procedures performed worldwide as well as in India. There is a growing need in our country among ophthalmologists to be aware of the indications for Kpro to facilitate appropriate referral as well as of the procedure to enable basic evaluation during follow-ups in case the need arises, and among corneal specialists interested to pursue the field of Kpros in understanding the nuances of these surgeries and to make a judicious decision regarding patient and Kpro selection and more importantly deferral. PMID:29676302

MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

EPA Science Inventory

This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

Vulnerability of Hidropower Generation in Amazon's Tributaries Under Global Change Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Von Randow, R.; Siqueira, J. L., Jr.; Rodriguez, D. A.; Tomasella, J.; Floriano, L. E.

2014-12-01

The Brazilian energy sector is under continued expansion. The majority of energy power generation in the country is done through hydropower, which represents around 88% of the energy originated from renewable sources in the country. Still, only 10% of the high potential for production of the Amazon basin is currently availed, and this raises attention for the implantation of new hydropower plants in the region. When a hydropower plant is considered to be built, the natural characteristics of the region are taken into account, considering that the rainfall regime follows certain stationarity. However, under the possibility of global change, the expected capacity of the plants may be compromised. The objective of this study is to evaluate if the current hydropower plants of some Amazon River tributaries can maintain their functionality under global environmental change conditions. For that, based on the discharge data and hydropower information available by Brazilian National Agency of Water and Energy we will infer the energy potential of these hydropower dams for the historic period that will be compared with the energy potential for future discharge under global environmental change conditions. The future discharge will be generated by the Distributed Hydrological Model developed at the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research (MHD-INPE), driven by different climate change scenarios projected by regional and global atmospheric models, associated with land use scenarios projected by a dynamic land use model (LUCC-ME/INPE). MHD-INPE will be calibrated through observed discharges for 1970-1990 using current land use conditions, and will generate discharges for the period of 2000 to 2050. In addition, special attention will be given to the presence of secondary forest growth in the land use scenarios in order to identify the importance of considering this use in the modelling exercise, since that use is not usually considered in hydrological modelling studies.

Energy implications of mechanical and mechanical-biological treatment compared to direct waste-to-energy.

PubMed

Cimpan, Ciprian; Wenzel, Henrik

2013-07-01

Primary energy savings potential is used to compare five residual municipal solid waste treatment systems, including configurations with mechanical (MT) and mechanical-biological (MBT) pre-treatment, which produce waste-derived fuels (RDF and SRF), biogas and/or recover additional materials for recycling, alongside a system based on conventional mass burn waste-to-energy and ash treatment. To examine the magnitude of potential savings we consider two energy efficiency levels (state-of-the-art and best available technology), the inclusion/exclusion of heat recovery (CHP vs. PP) and three different background end-use energy production systems (coal condensing electricity and natural gas heat, Nordic electricity mix and natural gas heat, and coal CHP energy quality allocation). The systems achieved net primary energy savings in a range between 34 and 140 MJprimary/100 MJinput waste, in the different scenario settings. The energy footprint of transportation needs, pre-treatment and reprocessing of recyclable materials was 3-9.5%, 1-18% and 1-8% respectively, relative to total energy savings. Mass combustion WtE achieved the highest savings in scenarios with CHP production, nonetheless, MBT-based systems had similarly high performance if SRF streams were co-combusted with coal. When RDF and SRF was only used in dedicated WtE plants, MBT-based systems totalled lower savings due to inherent system losses and additional energy costs. In scenarios without heat recovery, the biodrying MBS-based system achieved the highest savings, on the condition of SRF co-combustion. As a sensitivity scenario, alternative utilisation of SRF in cement kilns was modelled. It supported similar or higher net savings for all pre-treatment systems compared to mass combustion WtE, except when WtE CHP was possible in the first two background energy scenarios. Recovery of plastics for recycling before energy recovery increased net energy savings in most scenario variations, over those of full

Overview of the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST); NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian; Penev, Michael

This presentation provides an introduction to the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) and includes an overview of each of the three versions of H2FAST: the Web tool, the Excel spreadsheet version, and the beta version of the H2FAST Business Case Scenario tool.

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oladosu, Gbadebo

Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007) were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transitionmore » to advanced biofuel begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. Here, all scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term economic benefits for the USA economy.« less

An economic evaluation of alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA

DOE PAGES

Oladosu, Gbadebo

2017-05-03

Energy market conditions have shifted dramatically since the USA renewable fuel standards (RFS1 in 2005; RFS2 in 2007) were enacted. The USA has transitioned from an increasing dependence on oil imports to abundant domestic oil production. In addition, increases in the use of ethanol, the main biofuel currently produced in the USA, is now limited by the blend wall constraint. Given this, the current study evaluates alternative biofuel deployment scenarios in the USA, accounting for changes in market conditions. The analysis is performed with a general equilibrium model that reflects the structure of the USA biofuel market as the transitionmore » to advanced biofuel begins. Results suggest that ethanol consumption would increase, albeit slowly, if current biofuel deployment rates of about 10% are maintained as persistently lower oil prices lead to a gradual increase in the consumption of liquid transportation fuels. Without the blend wall constraint, this study finds that the overall economic impact of a full implementation of the USA RFS2 policy is largely neutral before 2022. However, the economic impacts become slightly negative under the blend wall constraint since more expensive bio-hydrocarbons are needed to meet the RFS2 mandates. Results for a scenario with reduced advanced biofuel deployment based on current policy plans show near neutral economic impacts up to 2027. This scenario is also consistent with another scenario where the volume of bio-hydrocarbons deployed is reduced to adjust for its higher cost and energy content relative to deploying the mandated RFS2 advanced biofuel volumes as ethanol. The important role of technological change is demonstrated under pioneer and accelerated technology scenarios, with the latter leading to neutral or positive economic effects up to 2023 under most blend wall scenarios. Here, all scenarios evaluated in this study are found to have positive long-term economic benefits for the USA economy.« less

The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pitcher, Hugh M.

2009-04-01

In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

Long-term US energy outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friesen, G.

Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

A dynamic model for organic waste management in Quebec (D-MOWIQ) as a tool to review environmental, societal and economic perspectives of a waste management policy.

PubMed

Hénault-Ethier, Louise; Martin, Jean-Philippe; Housset, Johann

2017-08-01

A dynamic systems model of organic waste management for the province of Quebec, Canada, was built. Six distinct modules taking into account social, economical and environmental issues and perspectives were included. Five scenarios were designed and tested to identify the potential consequences of different governmental and demographic combinations of decisions over time. Among these scenarios, one examines Quebec's organic waste management policy (2011-2015), while the other scenarios represent business as usual or emphasize ecology, economy or social benefits in the decision-making process. Model outputs suggest that the current governmental policy should yield favorable environmental benefits, energy production and waste valorization. The projections stemming from the current policy action plan approach the benefits gained by another scenario emphasizing the environmental aspects in the decision-making process. As expected, without the current policy and action plan in place, or business as usual, little improvements are expected in waste management compared to current trends, and strictly emphasizing economic imperatives does not favor sustainable organic waste management. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Social Networks and Workplace Risk: Classroom Scenarios from a U.S. and EU Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Binder, Perry; Mansfield, Nancy R.

2013-01-01

The explosion of social networks and the growing concern over privacy in the digital age--both in the United States and Europe--have provided an opportunity to introduce students to the legal risks of using social media in the workplace. This article builds on the authors' classroom experiences and provides social media scenarios and projects that…

Decommissioning of offshore oil and gas facilities: a comparative assessment of different scenarios.

PubMed

Ekins, Paul; Vanner, Robin; Firebrace, James

2006-06-01

A material and energy flow analysis, with corresponding financial flows, was carried out for different decommissioning scenarios for the different elements of an offshore oil and gas structure. A comparative assessment was made of the non-financial (especially environmental) outcomes of the different scenarios, with the reference scenario being to leave all structures in situ, while other scenarios envisaged leaving them on the seabed or removing them to shore for recycling and disposal. The costs of each scenario, when compared with the reference scenario, give an implicit valuation of the non-financial outcomes (e.g. environmental improvements), should that scenario be adopted by society. The paper concludes that it is not clear that the removal of the topsides and jackets of large steel structures to shore, as currently required by regulations, is environmentally justified; that concrete structures should certainly be left in place; and that leaving footings, cuttings and pipelines in place, with subsequent monitoring, would also be justified unless very large values were placed by society on a clear seabed and trawling access.

Gauge mediation scenario with hidden sector renormalization in MSSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arai, Masato; Kawai, Shinsuke; Okada, Nobuchika

2010-02-01

We study the hidden sector effects on the mass renormalization of a simplest gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking scenario. We point out that possible hidden sector contributions render the soft scalar masses smaller, resulting in drastically different sparticle mass spectrum at low energy. In particular, in the 5+5¯ minimal gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking with high messenger scale (that is favored by the gravitino cold dark matter scenario), we show that a stau can be the next lightest superparticle for moderate values of hidden sector self-coupling. This provides a very simple theoretical model of long-lived charged next lightest superparticles, which imply distinctive signals in ongoing and upcoming collider experiments.

A multiple perspective modeling and simulation approach for renewable energy policy evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alyamani, Talal M.

Environmental issues and reliance on fossil fuel sources, including coal, oil, and natural gas, are the two most common energy issues that are currently faced by the United States (U.S.). Incorporation of renewable energy sources, a non-economical option in electricity generation compared to conventional sources that burn fossil fuels, single handedly promises a viable solution for both of these issues. Several energy policies have concordantly been suggested to reduce the financial burden of adopting renewable energy technologies and make such technologies competitive with conventional sources throughout the U.S. This study presents a modeling and analysis approach for comprehensive evaluation of renewable energy policies with respect to their benefits to various related stakeholders--customers, utilities, governmental and environmental agencies--where the debilitating impacts, advantages, and disadvantages of such policies can be assessed and quantified at the state level. In this work, a novel simulation framework is presented to help policymakers promptly assess and evaluate policies from different perspectives of its stakeholders. The proposed framework is composed of four modules: 1) a database that collates the economic, operational, and environmental data; 2) elucidation of policy, which devises the policy for the simulation model; 3) a preliminary analysis, which makes predictions for consumption, supply, and prices; and 4) a simulation model. After the validity of the proposed framework is demonstrated, a series of planned Florida and Texas renewable energy policies are implemented into the presented framework as case studies. Two solar and one energy efficiency programs are selected as part of the Florida case study. A utility rebate and federal tax credit programs are selected as part of the Texas case study. The results obtained from the simulation and conclusions drawn on the assessment of current energy policies are presented with respect to the

Economic and environmental assessment of cellulosic ethanol production scenarios annexed to a typical sugar mill.

PubMed

Ali Mandegari, Mohsen; Farzad, Somayeh; Görgens, Johann F

2017-01-01

In this work different biorefinery scenarios were investigated, concerning the co-production of bioethanol and electricity from available lignocellulose at a typical sugar mill, as possible extensions to the current combustion of bagasse for steam and electricity production and burning trash on-filed. In scenario 1, the whole bagasse and brown leaves is utilized in a biorefinery and coal is burnt in the existing inefficient sugar mill boiler. Scenario 2 & 3 are assumed with a new centralized CHP unit without/with coal co-combustion, respectively. Also, through scenarios 4 & 5, the effect of water insoluble loading were studied. All scenarios provided energy for the sugarmill and the ethanol plant, with the export of surplus electricity. Economic analysis determined that scenario 1 was the most viable scenario due to less capital cost and economies-of scale. Based on Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) results, scenario 2 outperformed the other scenarios, while three scenarios showed lower contribution to environmental burdens than the current situation. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Initial exploration of scenarios with Internal Transport Barrier in the first NBI-heated L-mode TCV plasmas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piron, Chiara; Sauter, Olivier; Coda, Stefano; Merle, Antoine; Karpushov, Alexander; Pigatto, Leonardo; Bolzonella, Tommaso; Piovesan, Paolo; Vianello, Nicola; TCV Team; EUROfusion MST1 Team

2016-10-01

Fully non-inductive operation of high performance plasmas is one of the main objectives of contemporary Tokamak research. In this perspective, plasmas with Internal Transport Barriers (ITBs) are an attractive scenario, since they can attain a high fraction of bootstrap current. In this work we start exploring ITB scenarios on the Tokamak à Configuration Variable (TCV) heated by a newly available 1MW Neutral Beam Injector (NBI). Here we investigate for the first time in this device the impact of the additional NBI power on the performance and stability of L-mode plasmas with ITBs. Results of both experimental data analyses and ASTRA transport simulations are presented. The work examines also the Magneto Hydro-Dynamics (MHD) activity and stability of the explored plasmas. In particular, the role of plasma magnetic equilibrium parameters, such as plasma elongation and triangularity, on the sustainment of these NBI-heated ITB scenarios is discussed.

Search for Ultra-High Energy Photons with the Pierre Auger Observatory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Homola, Piotr

One of key scientific objectives of the Pierre Auger Observatory is the search for ultra-high energy photons. Such photons could originate either in the interactions of energetic cosmic-ray nuclei with the cosmic microwave background (so-called cosmogenic photons) or in the exotic scenarios, e.g. those assuming a production and decay of some hypothetical super-massive particles. The latter category of models would imply relatively large fluxes of photons with ultra-high energies at Earth, while the former, involving interactions of cosmic-ray nuclei with the microwave background - just the contrary: very small fractions. The investigations on the data collected so far in themore » Pierre Auger Observatory led to placing very stringent limits to ultra-high energy photon fluxes: below the predictions of the most of the exotic models and nearing the predicted fluxes of the cosmogenic photons. In this paper the status of these investigations and perspectives for further studies are summarized.« less

2017 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cole, Wesley; Mai, Trieu; Richards, James

This report summarizes the results of 26 forward-looking “standard scenarios” of the U.S. power sector simulated by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and Distributed Generation (dGen) capacity expansion models. The annual Standard Scenarios, which are now in their third year, have been designed to capture a range of possible power system futures considering a variety of factors that impact power sector evolution.

[Occupational health and safety management systems: scenarios and perspectives for occupational physicians].

PubMed

Santantonio, P; Casciani, M; Bartolucci, G B

2008-01-01

This paper analyzes the role of the occupational physicians, taking into account the new Italian legislation within the frame of CSR, that puts in a new light the physicians inside the Organizations. In this context, Occupational Medicine and Workplace Health Promotion play a central role in most of the items of the Occupational Health and safety management systems, from H&S politics to training, from First Aid to audit and revision systems. From this innovative perspective, the authors try to identify the occupational physician's new challenges and opportunities.

Correlation among the effective mass (m*), λab and Tc of superconducting cuprates in a Casimir energy scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orlando, M. T. D.; Rouver, A. N.; Rocha, J. R.; Cavichini, A. S.

2018-06-01

The relevance of the Casimir effect, discovered in 1948, has recently been pointed out in studies on materials such as graphene and high-temperature superconducting cuprates. In particular, the relationship between Casimir energy and the energy of a superconducting condensate with anisotropy characterized by high bidimensionality has already been discussed in certain theoretical scenarios. Using this proposal, this work describes the relationship between the effective mass of the charge carriers (m* = αme) and the macroscopic parameters characteristic of several families of high-Tc superconducting cuprates (Cu-HTSC) that have copper and oxygen superconducting planes (Cu-O). We have verified that an expression exists that correlates the effective mass, the London penetration length in the plane λab, the critical temperature Tc and the distance d between the equivalent superconducting planes of Cu-HTSC. This study revealed that the intersection between the asymptotic behavior of α as a function of Tc and the line describing the optimal value of α ≃ 2 (m* ≃ 2me) indicates that a nonadiabatic region exists, which implies a carrier-lattice interaction and where the critical temperature can have its highest value in Cu-HTSC.

Development of energy consumption and energy efficiency potential in the Brazilian industrial sector according to the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tolmasquim, M.T.; Szklo, A.S.; Cohen, C.

This paper presents the development of energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector and energy efficiency potential based on the analysis undertaken through a model developed in the Energy Planning Program at COPPE/UFRJ, known as the Integrated Energy Planning Model (IEPM). The study starts by presenting the IEPM, which is a technical and economic parameter-based model designed to forecast energy supplies and consumption for all economic sectors in Brazil, within three scenarios. Outlines of all three scenarios are presented, as they were constructed according to certain specific assumptions. The industrial sector was broken down into eleven sub-sectors: food and beverages,more » ceramics, cement, iron and steel, mining and pelletizing, ferroalloys, non-ferrous metals and others (metallurgy), chemicals, pulp and paper, textiles and other industries (MME, 1998). All these sub-sectors will also be presented as well as the results of the scenario forecasts. Results deriving from these forecasts come from very specific studies that analyze all process steps in each sub-sector in order to propose energy replacements, efficiency improvements of structural production alterations that result in major potential energy consumption reductions. Last but not least, this paper gives the development forecasts deriving from the three scenarios over ten years, with their contributions to energy efficiency in the Brazilian industrial sector, showing that the authors can reduce energy consumption in the Brazilian industrial sector by: substituting less efficient processes by more efficient ones, through the conversion of final energy into usable energy, basically, in the cement and aluminum industries; replacing equipment and energy sources; modifying product mix of several industries (pulp and paper), assigning top priority to producing goods with higher added value that are less energy intensive, and, finally, reducing the share held by some energy intensive sectors in

Structural safety assessment for FLNG-LNGC system during offloading operation scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Zhi-qiang; Zhang, Dong-wei; Zhao, Dong-ya; Chen, Gang

2017-04-01

The crashworthiness of the cargo containment systems (CCSs) of a floating liquid natural gas (FLNG) and the side structures in side-by-side offloading operations scenario are studied in this paper. An FLNG vessel is exposed to potential threats from collisions with a liquid natural gas carrier (LNGC) during the offloading operations, which has been confirmed by a model test of FLNG-LNGC side-by-side offloading operations. A nonlinear finite element code LS-DYNA is used to simulate the collision scenarios during the offloading operations. Finite element models of an FLNG vessel and an LNGC are established for the purpose of this study, including a detailed LNG cargo containment system in the FLNG side model. Based on the parameters obtained from the model test and potential dangerous accidents, typical collision scenarios are defined to conduct a comprehensive study. To evaluate the safety of the FLNG vessel, a limit state is proposed based on the structural responses of the LNG CCS. The different characteristics of the structural responses for the primary structural components, energy dissipation and collision forces are obtained for various scenarios. Deformation of the inner hull is found to have a great effect on the responses of the LNG CCS, with approximately 160 mm deformation corresponding to the limit state. Densely arranged web frames can absorb over 35% of the collision energy and be proved to greatly enhance the crashworthiness of the FLNG side structures.

Floating Offshore Wind in Oregon: Potential for Jobs and Economic Impacts from Two Future Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jimenez, Tony; Keyser, David; Tegen, Suzanne

Construction of the first offshore wind power plant in the United States began in 2015, off the coast of Rhode Island, using fixed platform structures that are appropriate for shallow seafloors, like those located off of the East Coast and mid-Atlantic. However, floating platforms, which have yet to be deployed commercially, will likely need to anchor to the deeper seafloor if deployed off of the West Coast. To analyze the employment and economic potential for floating offshore wind along the West Coast, the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) commissioned the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) to analyze two hypothetical,more » large-scale deployment scenarios for Oregon: 5,500 megawatts (MW) of offshore wind deployment in Oregon by 2050 (Scenario A), and 2,900 MW of offshore wind by 2050 (Scenario B). These levels of deployment could power approximately 1,600,000 homes (Scenario A) or 870,000 homes (Scenario B). Offshore wind would contribute to economic development in Oregon in the near future, and more substantially in the long term, especially if equipment and labor are sourced from within the state. According to the analysis, over the 2020-2050 period, Oregon floating offshore wind facilities could support 65,000-97,000 job-years and add $6.8 billion-$9.9 billion to the state GDP (Scenario A).« less

NOx emissions in China: historical trends and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, B.; Wang, S. X.; Liu, H.; Xu, J. Y.; Fu, K.; Klimont, Z.; Hao, J. M.; He, K. B.; Cofala, J.; Amann, M.

2013-10-01

Nitrogen oxides (NOx) are key pollutants for the improvement of ambient air quality. Within this study we estimated the historical NOx emissions in China for the period 1995-2010, and calculated future NOx emissions every five years until 2030 under six emission scenarios. Driven by the fast growth of energy consumption, we estimate the NOx emissions in China increased rapidly from 11.0 Mt in 1995 to 26.1 Mt in 2010. Power plants, industry and transportation were major sources of NOx emissions, accounting for 28.4%, 34.0%, and 25.4% of the total NOx emissions in 2010, respectively. Two energy scenarios, a business as usual scenario (BAU) and an alternative policy scenario (PC), were developed to project future energy consumption. In 2030, total energy consumption is projected to increase by 64% and 27% from 2010 level respectively. Three sets of end-of-pipe pollution control measures, including baseline, progressive, and stringent control case, were developed for each energy scenario, thereby constituting six emission scenarios. By 2030, the total NOx emissions are projected to increase (compared to 2010) by 36% in the baseline while policy cases result in reduction up to 61% in the most ambitious case with stringent control measures. More than a third of the reduction achieved by 2030 between least and most ambitious scenario comes from power sector, and more than half is distributed equally between industry and transportation sectors. Selective catalytic reduction dominates the NOx emission reductions in power plants, while life style changes, control measures for industrial boilers and cement production are major contributors to reductions in industry. Timely enforcement of legislation on heavy-duty vehicles would contribute significantly to NOx emission reductions. About 30% of the NOx emission reduction in 2020 and 40% of the NOx emission reduction in 2030 could be treated as the ancillary benefit of energy conservation. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to

Operationalising a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Crépin, Anne-Sophie; Gren, Åsa; Engström, Gustav; Ospina, Daniel

2017-12-01

We propose a framework to support management that builds on a social-ecological system perspective on the Arctic Ocean. We illustrate the framework's application for two policy-relevant scenarios of climate-driven change, picturing a shift in zooplankton composition and alternatively a crab invasion. We analyse archetypical system dynamics between the socio-economic, the natural, and the governance systems in these scenarios. Our holistic approach can help managers identify looming problems arising from complex system interactions and prioritise among problems and solutions, even when available data are limited.

The Response of the Ionospheric Cusp to the Solar Through Two Perspectives: Low Energy Changed Particle In-Situ Measurements and Low- Energy Neutral Atom Imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, V. N.; Moore, T. E.; Chandler, M. O.; Craven, P. D.

2000-01-01

The IMAGE mission provides a new perspective on the study of the response of the magnetosphere/ionosphere system to changing solar wind conditions, particularly the variability of ion outflow. Learning to interpret this new type of data becomes an essential step in the process of melding these results with the wealth of in-situ charged particle observations obtained over the past 25 years. In order to understand how the in-situ data correspond to and contrast with IMAGE results we will perform a conjunctive study of event data from two instruments to shed light on the coupling of the solar wind and ionosphere from these different perspectives. We will use the Low Energy Neutral Atom instrument (LENA) which images energetic neutral atom emissions from upward flowing ionospheric ions and the Thermal Ion Dynamics Instrument (TIDE) on the Polar satellite which measures in-situ ion outflow from 0.3-300 eV. Our primary goal will be to understand how comparing the imaging and in-situ perspectives can aid in the analysis of both data sets.

New Perspectives on Spontaneous Brain Activity: Dynamic Networks and Energy Matter.

PubMed

Tozzi, Arturo; Zare, Marzieh; Benasich, April A

2016-01-01

Spontaneous brain activity has received increasing attention as demonstrated by the exponential rise in the number of published article on this topic over the last 30 years. Such "intrinsic" brain activity, generated in the absence of an explicit task, is frequently associated with resting-state or default-mode networks (DMN)s. The focus on characterizing spontaneous brain activity promises to shed new light on questions concerning the structural and functional architecture of the brain and how they are related to "mind". However, many critical questions have yet to be addressed. In this review, we focus on a scarcely explored area, specifically the energetic requirements and constraints of spontaneous activity, taking into account both thermodynamical and informational perspectives. We argue that the "classical" definitions of spontaneous activity do not take into account an important feature, that is, the critical thermodynamic energetic differences between spontaneous and evoked brain activity. Spontaneous brain activity is associated with slower oscillations compared with evoked, task-related activity, hence it exhibits lower levels of enthalpy and "free-energy" (i.e., the energy that can be converted to do work), thus supporting noteworthy thermodynamic energetic differences between spontaneous and evoked brain activity. Increased spike frequency during evoked activity has a significant metabolic cost, consequently, brain functions traditionally associated with spontaneous activity, such as mind wandering, require less energy that other nervous activities. We also review recent empirical observations in neuroscience, in order to capture how spontaneous brain dynamics and mental function can be embedded in a non-linear dynamical framework, which considers nervous activity in terms of phase spaces, particle trajectories, random walks, attractors and/or paths at the edge of the chaos. This takes us from the thermodynamic free-energy, to the realm of "variational

Model selection and constraints from holographic dark energy scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akhlaghi, I. A.; Malekjani, M.; Basilakos, S.; Haghi, H.

2018-07-01

In this study, we combine the expansion and the growth data in order to investigate the ability of the three most popular holographic dark energy models, namely event future horizon, Ricci scale, and Granda-Oliveros IR cutoffs, to fit the data. Using a standard χ2 minimization method, we place tight constraints on the free parameters of the models. Based on the values of the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, we find that two out of three holographic dark energy models are disfavoured by the data, because they predict a non-negligible amount of fractional dark energy density at early enough times. Although the growth rate data are relatively consistent with the holographic dark energy models which are based on Ricci scale and Granda-Oliveros IR cutoffs, the combined analysis provides strong indications against these models. Finally, we find that the model for which the holographic dark energy is related with the future horizon is consistent with the combined observational data.

Evaluating different scenarios for Tradable Green Certificates by game theory approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghaffari, Meysam; Hafezalkotob, Ashkan

2018-06-01

Right now employment of polices and tools to decrease the carbon emission through electricity generation from renewable resources is one of the most important problem in energy policy. Tradable Green Certificate (TGC) is an economics mechanism to support green power generation. Any country has the challenge to choose an appropriate policy and mechanism for design and implementation of TGC. The purpose of this study is to help policy makers to design and choose the best scenario of TGC by evaluating six scenarios, based on game theory approach. This study will be useful for increasing the effectiveness of TGC system in interaction with electricity market. Particularly, the competition between thermal and renewable power plants is modeled by mathematical modeling tools such as cooperative games like Nash and Stackelberg. Each game is modeled by taking into account of the two following policies. The results of the six scenarios and the sensitivity analysis of some key parameters have been evaluated by numerical studies. Finally, in order to evaluate the scenarios we calculated the level of social welfare in the all scenarios. The results of all models demonstrate that when the green electricity share (minimum requirement) increases the TGC price decreases. Moreover, in all scenarios when the minimum requirement is 100% then the maximum level of social welfare is not met. Also when the minimum requirement is less than 50%, the scenarios with the market TGC price policy have more social welfare in comparison with the scenarios with fixed TGC price policy.

Emissions Scenario Portal for Visualization of Low Carbon Pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Friedrich, J.; Hennig, R. J.; Mountford, H.; Altamirano, J. C.; Ge, M.; Fransen, T.

2016-12-01

This proposal for a presentation is centered around a new project which is developed collaboratively by the World Resources Institute (WRI), Google Inc., and Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP). The project aims to develop an online, open portal, the Emissions Scenario Portal (ESP),to enable users to easily visualize a range of future greenhouse gas emission pathways linked to different scenarios of economic and energy developments, drawing from a variety of modeling tools. It is targeted to users who are not modelling experts, but instead policy analysts or advisors, investment analysts, and similar who draw on modelled scenarios to inform their work, and who can benefit from better access to, and transparency around, the wide range of emerging scenarios on ambitious climate action. The ESP will provide information from scenarios in a visually appealing and easy-to-understand manner that enable these users to recognize the opportunities to reduce GHG emissions, the implications of the different scenarios, and the underlying assumptions. To facilitate the application of the portal and tools in policy dialogues, a series of country-specific and potentially sector-specific workshops with key decision-makers and analysts, supported by relevant analysis, will be organized by the key partners and also in broader collaboration with others who might wish to convene relevant groups around the information. This project will provide opportunities for modelers to increase their outreach and visibility in the public space and to directly interact with key audiences of emissions scenarios, such as policy analysts and advisors. The information displayed on the portal will cover a wide range of indicators, sectors and important scenario characteristics such as macroeconomic information, emission factors and policy as well as technology assumptions in order to facilitate comparison. These indicators have been selected based on existing standards (such as the IIASA AR5

User needs for climate change scenarios in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fischer, Andreas; Liniger, Mark; Flückiger Knutti, Jacqueline

2017-04-01

In the framework of the recently founded National Center for Climate Services (NCCS) new climate change scenarios for Switzerland are currently under development that will be released in 2018 ("CH2018 scenarios"). An important component herein is the consideration of user needs in order to ensure that the new scenarios are user tailored and hence find a wide applicability in different sectors in Switzerland. A comprehensive market research was conducted to get a better overview of who the users of climate scenarios are and what they need. The survey targeted the most climate relevant sectors, and involved representatives from administration, research and private companies across Switzerland. The survey comprised several qualitative group interviews with key stakeholders, a written questionaire, answered by more than one hundred users and two specific workshops gathering the needs in dissemination. Additionally, the survey results were consolidated at a national symposium with around 150 participants from research, administration and practice. The results of the survey show the necessity to classify the users of climate scenarios according to their level of usage and according to the different sectors. It turns out that the less intensive the usage of the climate scenarios is, the more important becomes the need of comprehensibility, clarity and support when disseminating new climate scenarios. According to the survey it is especially the non-experts that should be better addressed in the new cycle of national climate scenarios. In terms of content, the survey reveals strongest needs for quantitative information on changes in extremes, an aspect that was handled in a qualitative way only in the predecessor climate scenario suite CH2011. Another cross-sectoral need are physically consistent data in time, space and between several variables. For instance, in agriculture the combination of heat and dryness is an important aspect, while the same is true in the energy

NEA Mitigation Studies for Short Warning Time Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barbee, Brent; Syal, Megan Bruck; Gisler, Galen

2016-01-01

This talk describes current collaborative research efforts between NASA GSFC and the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) national labs (Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, and Sandia) to design systems and frameworks for robust responses to short warning time near-Earth asteroid (NEA) scenarios, in which we would have less than 10 years to respond to an NEA on its way to impact the Earth.

Evolutionary Perspectives on Diversity of Lignocellulose Decay Mechanisms in Basidionycetes (JGI Seventh Annual User Meeting 2012: Genomics of Energy and Environment)

ScienceCinema

Hibbett, David

2018-05-18

David Hibbett from Clark University on "Evolutionary Perspectives on Diversity of Lignocellulose Decay Mechanisms in Basidiomycetes" at the 7th Annual Genomics of Energy & Environment Meeting on March 21, 2012 in Walnut Creek, California.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

Energy efficiency in waste-to-energy and its relevance with regard to climate control.

PubMed

Ragossnig, Arne M; Wartha, Christian; Kirchner, Andreas

2008-02-01

This article focuses on systematically highlighting the ways to optimize waste-to-energy plants in terms of their energy efficiency as an indicator of the positive effect with regard to climate control. Potentials for increasing energy efficiency are identified and grouped into categories. The measures mentioned are illustrated by real-world examples. As an example, district cooling as a means for increasing energy efficiency in the district heating network of Vienna is described. Furthermore a scenario analysis shows the relevance of energy efficiency in waste management scenarios based on thermal treatment of waste with regard to climate control. The description is based on a model that comprises all relevant processes from the collection and transportation up to the thermal treatment of waste. The model has been applied for household-like commercial waste. The alternatives compared are a combined heat and power incinerator, which is being introduced in many places as an industrial utility boiler or in metropolitan areas where there is a demand for district heating and a classical municipal solid waste incinerator producing solely electrical power. For comparative purposes a direct landfilling scenario has been included in the scenario analysis. It is shown that the energy efficiency of thermal treatment facilities is crucial to the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted.

Energy implications of mechanical and mechanical–biological treatment compared to direct waste-to-energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cimpan, Ciprian, E-mail: cic@kbm.sdu.dk; Wenzel, Henrik

2013-07-15

Highlights: • Compared systems achieve primary energy savings between 34 and 140 MJ{sub primary}/100 MJ{sub input} {sub waste.} • Savings magnitude is foremost determined by chosen primary energy and materials production. • Energy consumption and process losses can be upset by increased technology efficiency. • Material recovery accounts for significant shares of primary energy savings. • Direct waste-to-energy is highly efficient if cogeneration (CHP) is possible. - Abstract: Primary energy savings potential is used to compare five residual municipal solid waste treatment systems, including configurations with mechanical (MT) and mechanical–biological (MBT) pre-treatment, which produce waste-derived fuels (RDF and SRF), biogasmore » and/or recover additional materials for recycling, alongside a system based on conventional mass burn waste-to-energy and ash treatment. To examine the magnitude of potential savings we consider two energy efficiency levels (state-of-the-art and best available technology), the inclusion/exclusion of heat recovery (CHP vs. PP) and three different background end-use energy production systems (coal condensing electricity and natural gas heat, Nordic electricity mix and natural gas heat, and coal CHP energy quality allocation). The systems achieved net primary energy savings in a range between 34 and 140 MJ{sub primary}/100 MJ{sub input} {sub waste}, in the different scenario settings. The energy footprint of transportation needs, pre-treatment and reprocessing of recyclable materials was 3–9.5%, 1–18% and 1–8% respectively, relative to total energy savings. Mass combustion WtE achieved the highest savings in scenarios with CHP production, nonetheless, MBT-based systems had similarly high performance if SRF streams were co-combusted with coal. When RDF and SRF was only used in dedicated WtE plants, MBT-based systems totalled lower savings due to inherent system losses and additional energy costs. In scenarios without

A 1,000 GtC Coal Question for Future Energy Scenarios: How Much Coal Will Renewables Need to Displace?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ritchie, W. J.; Dowlatabadi, H.

2016-12-01

Twenty years ago, global coal assessments indicated reserve-to-production (R-P) ratios of more than 300 years. Consequently, most studies of energy futures established coal as a virtually unlimited backstop to meet the world's projected energy needs. Coal was modeled to offset oil and gas production declines and provide a source of energy which renewables and lower carbon supply strategies needed to outcompete. Over the past two decades, increasingly consistent methodologies have been applied globally to assess recoverable coal. Coal production has also witnessed significant mechanization to meet higher demand. Each of these has led to a significant reduction in estimates of economically recoverable coal reserves despite a doubling of market prices over this period. The current reserve to production ratio for coal is now around 100 years. It is time to reconsider coal as the inexhaustible energy backstop The energy models which develop long-term estimates of renewable energy needs and projections of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions still adopt the characteristics of vintage coal assessments. By convention, baseline GHG emissions used by the IPCC and others, project combustion of most known coal reserves before the year 2100. When vintage assessments are used, this involves extraction of all currently known coal reserves plus twice again from resources invalidated as recoverable for geologic, environmental, social, legal, technical or economic reasons. We provide evidence for rejecting these projections of unbounded growth in coal consumption. Legacy pathways of implausibly high coal use upwardly bias long-term scenarios for total cumulative GHG emissions and subsequent research on climate change. This bias has precluded consideration of much more ambitious climate mitigation targets without significant socio-economic dislocation and unnecessarily diminishes possible future contributions from renewables.

Observation of ultra high energy cosmic rays from space: Status and perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casolino, M.; Klimov, P.; Piotrowski, L.

2017-12-01

The study of ultra high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) offers unique possibilities to probe the energies currently inaccessible by man-made accelerators. Recent years have shed light on several characteristics of these particles, but—due to their extremely low flux—their origin, nature, and acceleration mechanisms are still unclear. Space-based observations have the potential for an increase in statistics, up to several orders of magnitude, and would be able to cover the whole sky, allowing for a direct comparison of spectra and direction of arrival. A detector with the exposure of a few times that of the Pierre Auger Observatory would be able to clarify the observed differences between the northern and southern skies, confirm the existence of TA hot spot, and measure multipolar anisotropies with high precision. A number of novel technologies—from optics to sensors, front-end and read-out electronics—have been developed over the years to achieve this goal. In this paper we describe the progress and results obtained so far and discuss the perspectives of UHECR physics observation from space.

EDITORIAL: Perspectives Perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dewhurst, Richard

2011-05-01

In this issue, we are delighted to publish the second in a series of articles under the banner of Perspectives. The series commenced in late 2008, when Udo Kaatze [1] published an article about the powerful technique of dielectric spectrometry for liquid measurements. In addition to examining the very wide frequency range from 10-6 Hz to 10-13 Hz, an outline of possible future developments was presented. Some challenging tasks for the future were briefly outlined. The format of the article was different to the usual style of a contributed paper or review article. Instead, it represented a short summary of recent work in the field and offered a viewpoint of an expert in the area. Its commentary noted several milestones that had been recently achieved, and then looked to the future. The Perspective format allowed the author to provide some opinion about the challenges of the future not normally permitted in a Topical Review. The journal now intends to publish several more Perspectives. For example, in this issue David Birch [2] presents a Perspective about another important measurement science, namely fluorescence detections and their future directions. These are based on an old technique which provided the basis for detecting the presence of molecular species. Successful research led to an understanding and description of the phenomenon of molecular fluorescence in terms of excited state energies, transitions, symmetries and rate parameters. More recently, using fluorescence as a probe, and with the exploitation of new technologies, new applications have included the study of protein, vision, photosynthesis, membranes and DNA. Indeed nowhere has fluorescence had more impact than in the biosciences. Once again, the intention of the Perspective article has been to highlight recent milestones within the field. Importantly, it also indicates some of the future challenges. Such Perspectives are an occasional series. They are not intended to deflect from the balance of

Scenarios of global agricultural biomass harvest reveal conflicts and trade-offs for bioenergy with CCS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Powell, Tom; Lenton, Tim

2013-04-01

We assess the quantitative potential for future land management to help rebalance the global carbon cycle by actively removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere with simultaneous bio-energy offsets of CO2 emissions, whilst meeting global food demand, preserving natural ecosystems and minimising CO2 emissions from land use change. Four alternative future scenarios are considered out to 2050 with different combinations of high or low technology food production and high or low meat diets. Natural ecosystems are protected except when additional land is necessary to fulfil the dietary demands of the global population. Dedicated bio-energy crops can only be grown on land that is already under management but is no longer needed for food production. We find that there is only room for dedicated bio-energy crops if there is a marked increase in the efficiency of food production (sustained annual yield growth of 1%, shifts towards more efficient animals like pigs and poultry, and increased recycling of wastes and residues). If there is also a return to lower meat diets, biomass energy with carbon storage (BECS) as CO2 and biochar could remove up to 4.0 Pg C per year in 2050. With the current trend to higher meat diets there is only room for limited expansion of bio-energy crops after 2035 and instead BECS must be based largely on biomass residues, removing up to 1.5 Pg C per year in. A high-meat, low-efficiency future would be a catastrophe for natural ecosystems (and thus for the humans that depend on their services) with around 8.5 Gha under cultivation in 2050. When included in a simple earth system model with a technological mitigation CO2 emission baseline these produce atmospheric CO2 concentrations of ~ 450-525ppm in 2050. In addition we assess the potential for future biodiversity loss under the scenarios due to three interacting factors; energy withdrawal from ecosystems due to biomass harvest, habitat loss due to land-use change, and climate change

Growth of perturbations in dark energy parametrization scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehrabi, Ahmad

2018-04-01

In this paper, we study the evolution of dark matter perturbations in the linear regime by considering the possibility of dark energy perturbations. To do this, two popular parametrizations, Chevallier-Polarski-Linder (CPL) and Barboza-Alcaniz (BA), with the same number of free parameters and different redshift dependency have been considered. We integrate the full relativistic equations to obtain the growth of matter fluctuations for both clustering and smooth versions of CPL and BA dark energy. The growth rate is larger (smaller) than the Λ CDM in the smooth cases when w <-1 (w >-1 ), but the dark energy clustering gives a larger (smaller) growth index when w >-1 (w <-1 ). We measure the relative difference of the growth rate with respect to concordance Λ CDM and study how it changes depending on the free parameters. Furthermore, it is found that the difference of growth rates between smooth CPL and BA is negligible, less than 0.5%, while for the clustering case, the difference is considerable and might be as large as 2%. Eventually, using the latest geometrical and growth rate observational data, we perform an overall likelihood analysis and show that both smooth and clustering cases of CPL and BA parametrizations are consistent with observations. In particular, we find the dark energy figure of merit is approximately 70 for the BA and approximately 30 for the CPL, which indicates the BA model constrains relatively better than the CPL one.

Replacement policy of residential lighting optimized for cost, energy, and greenhouse gas emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lixi; Keoleian, Gregory A.; Saitou, Kazuhiro

2017-11-01

Accounting for 10% of the electricity consumption in the US, artificial lighting represents one of the easiest ways to cut household energy bills and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by upgrading to energy-efficient technologies such as compact fluorescent lamps (CFL) and light emitting diodes (LED). However, given the high initial cost and rapidly improving trajectory of solid-state lighting today, estimating the right time to switch over to LEDs from a cost, primary energy, and GHG emissions perspective is not a straightforward problem. This is an optimal replacement problem that depends on many determinants, including how often the lamp is used, the state of the initial lamp, and the trajectories of lighting technology and of electricity generation. In this paper, multiple replacement scenarios of a 60 watt-equivalent A19 lamp are analyzed and for each scenario, a few replacement policies are recommended. For example, at an average use of 3 hr day-1 (US average), it may be optimal both economically and energetically to delay the adoption of LEDs until 2020 with the use of CFLs, whereas purchasing LEDs today may be optimal in terms of GHG emissions. In contrast, incandescent and halogen lamps should be replaced immediately. Based on expected LED improvement, upgrading LED lamps before the end of their rated lifetime may provide cost and environmental savings over time by taking advantage of the higher energy efficiency of newer models.

Sustainable WEE management in Malaysia: present scenarios and future perspectives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaul Hasan Shumon, Md; Ahmed, S.

2013-12-01

Technological advances have resulted development of a lot of electronic products for continuously increasing number of customers. As the customer taste and features of these products change rapidly, the life cycles have come down tremendously. Therefore, a large volume of e-wastes are now emanated every year. This scenario is very much predominant in Malaysia. On one hand e-wastes are becoming environmental hazards and affecting the ecological imbalance. On the other, these wastes are remaining still economically valuable. In Malaysia, e-waste management system is still in its nascent state. This paper describes the current status of e-waste generation and recycling and explores issues for future e-waste management system in Malaysia from sustainable point of view. As to draw some factual comparisons, this paper reviews the e-waste management system in European Union, USA, Japan, as a benchmark. Then it focuses on understanding the Malaysian culture, consumer discarding behavior, flow of the materials in recycling, e-waste management system, and presents a comparative view with the Swiss e-waste system. Sustainable issues for e-waste management in Malaysia are also presented. The response adopted so far in collection and recovery activities are covered in later phases. Finally, it investigates the barriers and challenges of e-waste system in Malaysia.

Environmental impact of PV cell waste scenario.

PubMed

Bogacka, M; Pikoń, K; Landrat, M

2017-12-01

Rapid growth of the volume of waste from PV cells is expected in the following years. The problem of its utilization seems to be the most important issue for future waste management systems. The environmental impacts of the PV recycling scenario are presented in the manuscript. The analysis is based on the LCA approach and the average data available in specialized databases for silicon standard PV cell is used. The functional unit includes parameters like: efficiency, composition, surface area. The discussion on the environmental impact change due to the location of the PV production and waste processing plants is presented in the manuscript. Additionally, the discussion on the environmental effect of substituting different energy resources with PV cells is presented in the manuscript. The analysis of the PV cell life cycle scenario presented in the article was performed using the SIMA PRO software and data from Ecoinvent 3.0 database together with additional data obtained from other sources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Response of the Ionospheric Cusp to the Solar Wind Through Two Perspectives: Low Energy Charged Particle In-Situ Measurements and Low-Energy Neutral Atom Imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, V. N.; Moore, T. E.; Chandler, M. O.; Giles, B. L.; Craven, P. D.; Rose, M. Franklin (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

The Imager for Magnetopause-to-Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) mission provides a new perspective on the study of the response of the magnetosphere/ionosphere system to changing solar wind conditions, particularly the variability of ion outflow. Learning to interpret this new type of data becomes an essential step in the process of melding these results with the wealth of in-situ charged particle observations obtained over the past 25 years. In order to understand how the in-situ data correspond to and contrast with IMAGE results we will perform a conjunctive study of event data from two instruments to shed light on the coupling of the solar wind and ionosphere from these different perspectives. We will use the Low Energy Neutral Atom instrument (LENA) which images energetic neutral atom emissions from upward flowing ionospheric ions and the Thermal Ion Dynamics Instrument (TIDE) on the Polar satellite which measures in-situ ion outflow from 0.3-300 eV. Our primary goal will be to understand how comparing the imaging and in-situ perspectives can aid in the analysis of both data sets.

WESTERN ENERGY RESOURCES AND THE ENVIRONMENT: GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

EPA Science Inventory

Geothermal energy--from subsurface heat sources created by the underlying geologic configuration of the earth--is addressed, from an environmental research and development perspective. The report covers various geothermal energy systems, which serve as present or potential energy...

Aircraft accident investigation: the decision-making in initial action scenario.

PubMed

Barreto, Marcia M; Ribeiro, Selma L O

2012-01-01

In the complex aeronautical environment, the efforts in terms of operational safety involve the adoption of proactive and reactive measures. The process of investigation begins right after the occurrence of the aeronautical accident, through the initial action. Thus, it is in the crisis scenario, that the person responsible for the initial action makes decisions and gathers the necessary information for the subsequent phases of the investigation process. Within this scenario, which is a natural environment, researches have shown the fragility of rational models of decision making. The theoretical perspective of naturalistic decision making constitutes a breakthrough in the understanding of decision problems demanded by real world. The proposal of this study was to verify if the initial action, after the occurrence of an accident, and the decision-making strategies, used by the investigators responsible for this activity, are characteristic of the naturalistic decision making theoretical approach. To attend the proposed objective a descriptive research was undertaken with a sample of professionals that work in this activity. The data collected through individual interviews were analyzed and the results demonstrated that the initial action environment, which includes restricted time, dynamic conditions, the presence of multiple actors, stress and insufficient information is characteristic of the naturalistic decision making. They also demonstrated that, when the investigators make their decisions, they use their experience and the mental simulation, intuition, improvisation, metaphors and analogues cases, as strategies, all of them related to the naturalistic approach of decision making, in order to satisfy the needs of the situation and reach the objectives of the initial action in the accident scenario.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative smoking cessation scenarios in Spain: results from the EQUIPTMOD.

PubMed

Trapero-Bertran, Marta; Muñoz, Celia; Coyle, Kathryn; Coyle, Doug; Lester-George, Adam; Leidl, Reiner; Németh, Bertalan; Cheung, Kei-Long; Pokhrel, Subhash; Lopez-Nicolás, Ángel

2018-03-13

To assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative smoking cessation scenarios from the perspective of the Spanish National Health Service (NHS). We used the European study on Quantifying Utility of Investment in Protection from Tobacco model (EQUIPTMOD), a Markov-based state transition economic model, to estimate the return on investment (ROI) of: (a) the current provision of smoking cessation services (brief physician advice and printed self-helped material + smoking ban and tobacco duty at current levels); and (b) four alternative scenarios to complement the current provision: coverage of proactive telephone calls; nicotine replacement therapy (mono and combo) [prescription nicotine replacement therapy (Rx NRT)]; varenicline (standard duration); or bupropion. A rate of 3% was used to discount life-time costs and benefits. Spain. Adult smoking population (16+ years). Health-care costs associated with treatment of smoking attributable diseases (lung cancer, coronary heart disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary infection and stroke); intervention costs; quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs and outcomes were summarized using various ROI estimates. The cost of implementing the current provision of smoking cessation services is approximately €61 million in the current year. This translates to 18 quitters per 1000 smokers and a life-time benefit-cost ratio of 5, compared with no such provision. All alternative scenarios were dominant (cost-saving: less expensive to run and generated more QALYs) from the life-time perspective, compared with the current provision. The life-time benefit-cost ratios were: 1.87 (proactive telephone calls); 1.17 (Rx NRT); 2.40 (varenicline-standard duration); and bupropion (2.18). The results remained robust in the sensitivity analysis. According to the EQUIPTMOD modelling tool it would be cost-effective for the Spanish authorities to expand the reach of existing GP brief interventions for smoking cessation, provide pro-active telephone

Energy Impacts of Wide Band Gap Semiconductors in U.S. Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet.

PubMed

Warren, Joshua A; Riddle, Matthew E; Graziano, Diane J; Das, Sujit; Upadhyayula, Venkata K K; Masanet, Eric; Cresko, Joe

2015-09-01

Silicon carbide and gallium nitride, two leading wide band gap semiconductors with significant potential in electric vehicle power electronics, are examined from a life cycle energy perspective and compared with incumbent silicon in U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet. Cradle-to-gate, silicon carbide is estimated to require more than twice the energy as silicon. However, the magnitude of vehicle use phase fuel savings potential is comparatively several orders of magnitude higher than the marginal increase in cradle-to-gate energy. Gallium nitride cradle-to-gate energy requirements are estimated to be similar to silicon, with use phase savings potential similar to or exceeding that of silicon carbide. Potential energy reductions in the United States vehicle fleet are examined through several scenarios that consider the market adoption potential of electric vehicles themselves, as well as the market adoption potential of wide band gap semiconductors in electric vehicles. For the 2015-2050 time frame, cumulative energy savings associated with the deployment of wide band gap semiconductors are estimated to range from 2-20 billion GJ depending on market adoption dynamics.

Pesticide runoff from energy crops: A threat to aquatic invertebrates?

PubMed

Bunzel, Katja; Schäfer, Ralf B; Thrän, Daniela; Kattwinkel, Mira

2015-12-15

The European Union aims to reach a 10% share of biofuels in the transport sector by 2020. The major burden is most likely to fall on already established annual energy crops such as rapeseed and cereals for the production of biodiesel and bioethanol, respectively. Annual energy crops are typically cultivated in intensive agricultural production systems, which require the application of pesticides. Agricultural pesticides can have adverse effects on aquatic invertebrates in adjacent streams. We assessed the relative ecological risk to aquatic invertebrates associated with the chemical pest management from six energy crops (maize, potato, sugar beet, winter barley, winter rapeseed, and winter wheat) as well as from mixed cultivation scenarios. The pesticide exposure related to energy crops and cultivation scenarios was estimated as surface runoff for 253 small stream sites in Central Germany using a GIS-based runoff potential model. The ecological risk for aquatic invertebrates, an important organism group for the functioning of stream ecosystems, was assessed using acute toxicity data (48-h LC50 values) of the crustacean Daphnia magna. We calculated the Ecological Risk from potential Pesticide Runoff (ERPR) for all three main groups of pesticides (herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides). Our findings suggest that the crops potato, sugar beet, and rapeseed pose a higher ecological risk to aquatic invertebrates than maize, barley, and wheat. As maize had by far the lowest ERPR values, from the perspective of pesticide pollution, its cultivation as substrate for the production of the gaseous biofuel biomethane may be preferable compared to the production of, for example, biodiesel from rapeseed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Scenario modeling potential eco-efficiency gains from a transition to organic agriculture: life cycle perspectives on Canadian canola, corn, soy, and wheat production.

PubMed

Pelletier, N; Arsenault, N; Tyedmers, P

2008-12-01

We used Life Cycle Assessment to scenario model the potential reductions in cumulative energy demand (both fossil and renewable) and global warming, acidifying, and ozone-depleting emissions associated with a hypothetical national transition from conventional to organic production of four major field crops [canola (Brassica rapa), corn (Zea mays), soy (Glycine max), and wheat (Triticum aestivum)] in Canada. Models of these systems were constructed using a combination of census data, published values, and the requirements for organic production described in the Canadian National Organic Standards in order to be broadly representative of the similarities and differences that characterize these disparate production technologies. Our results indicate that organic crop production would consume, on average, 39% as much energy and generate 77% of the global warming emissions, 17% of the ozone-depleting emissions, and 96% of the acidifying emissions associated with current national production of these crops. These differences were almost exclusively due to the differences in fertilizers used in conventional and organic farming and were most strongly influenced by the higher cumulative energy demand and emissions associated with producing conventional nitrogen fertilizers compared to the green manure production used for biological nitrogen fixation in organic agriculture. Overall, we estimate that a total transition to organic production of these crops in Canada would reduce national energy consumption by 0.8%, global warming emissions by 0.6%, and acidifying emissions by 1.0% but have a negligible influence on reducing ozone-depleting emissions.

Design scenarios for renovation of sports complex: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nižetić, S.

2018-02-01

This paper elaborates design scenarios for a sports complex in Croatia from a technical and economic aspect. Different energy options are analysed and two are additionally addressed and discussed as the most viable ones. The possibilities of sports complex renovation are shown by properly choosing the appropriate energy concept and thus reducing the overall cost for produced thermal energy by around 33% and reducing the carbon dioxide emission by a factor of 1.8 in comparison with its present state. Finally, this study presents an example of good practice, where renewable energy solutions can be proposed and where it is possible to cover around 70-80% of overall yearly costs from achieved energy savings for the novel plant that is assumed to be financed through a bank loan.

On the usage of agricultural raw materials--energy or food? An assessment from an economics perspective.

PubMed

Lenk, Fabian; Bröring, Stefanie; Herzog, Philipp; Leker, Jens

2007-12-01

Bioenergies are promoted across the globe as the answer for global warming and the chance to reduce dependency from fossil energy sources. Despite the fact that renewable energy sources offer the opportunity to reduce CO2 emission and present a chance to increase agricultural incomes, they also come along with some drawbacks that have been mostly neglected in the current discussion. This paper seeks to build a basis for discussing the impacts of the growing subsidization of bioenergy and the resulting usage competition of agricultural raw materials between foods and energy. To assess the usage competition and the subsidization of bioenergy, this article employs a welfare economics perspective associated with an emphasize on the construct of externalities. This will help to foster the discussion on the further subsidization of bioenergy, where funding for R&D on new ways of using non-food raw materials ought to play a significant role.

Decision- rather than scenario-centred downscaling: Towards smarter use of climate model outputs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, Robert L.

2013-04-01

Climate model output has been used for hydrological impact assessments for at least 25 years. Scenario-led methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to the security of supplies, performance of water infrastructure, and health of freshwater ecosystems. However, it is less clear how these analyses translate into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that scenario-led methods typically yield very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and river catchment scales. Consequently, there is growing interest in vulnerability-based frameworks and strategies for employing climate model output in decision-making contexts. This talk begins by summarising contrasting perspectives on climate models and principles for testing their utility for water sector applications. Using selected examples it is then shown how water resource systems may be adapted with varying levels of reliance on climate model information. These approaches include the conventional scenario-led risk assessment, scenario-neutral strategies, safety margins and sensitivity testing, and adaptive management of water systems. The strengths and weaknesses of each approach are outlined and linked to selected water management activities. These cases show that much progress can be made in managing water systems without dependence on climate models. Low-regret measures such as improved forecasting, better inter-agency co-operation, and contingency planning, yield benefits regardless of the climate outlook. Nonetheless, climate model scenarios are useful for evaluating adaptation portfolios, identifying system thresholds and fixing weak links, exploring the timing of investments, improving operating rules, or developing smarter licensing regimes. The most problematic application remains the climate change safety margin because of the very low confidence in extreme precipitation and river flows generated by climate models. In such cases, it is necessary to

From "farm to fork" strawberry system: current realities and potential innovative scenarios from life cycle assessment of non-renewable energy use and green house gas emissions.

PubMed

Girgenti, Vincenzo; Peano, Cristiana; Baudino, Claudio; Tecco, Nadia

2014-03-01

In this study, we analysed the environmental profile of the strawberry industry in Northern Italy. The analysis was conducted using two scenarios as reference systems: strawberry crops grown in unheated plastic tunnels using currently existing cultivation techniques, post-harvest management practices and consumption patterns (scenario 1) and the same strawberry cultivation chain in which some of the materials used were replaced with bio-based materials (scenario 2). In numerous studies, biodegradable polymers have been shown to be environmentally friendly, thus potentially reducing environmental impacts. These materials can be recycled into carbon dioxide and water through composting. Many materials, such as Mater-BI® and PLA®, are also derived from renewable resources. The methodology chosen for the environmental analysis was a life cycle assessment (LCA) based on a consequential approach developed to assess a product's overall environmental impact from the production system to its usage and disposal. In the field stage, a traditional mulching film (non-biodegradable) could be replaced with a biodegradable product. This change would result in waste production of 0 kg/ha for the bio-based product compared to 260 kg/ha of waste for polyethylene (PE). In the post-harvest stage, the issue addressed was the use and disposal of packaging materials. The innovative scenario evaluated herein pertains to the use of new packaging materials that increase the shelf life of strawberries, thereby decreasing product losses while increasing waste management efficiency at the level of a distribution platform and/or sales outlet. In the event of product deterioration or non-sale of the product, the packaging and its contents could be collected together as organic waste without any additional processes because the packaging is compostable according to EN13432. Scenario 2 would achieve reductions of 20% in the global warming potential and non-renewable energy impact categories

SERA Scenarios of Early Market Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle Introductions: Modeling Framework, Regional Markets, and Station Clustering; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, M.

This presentation provides an overview of the Scenario Evaluation and Regionalization Analysis (SERA) model, describes the methodology for developing scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure development, outlines an example "Hydrogen Success" scenario, and discusses detailed scenario metrics for a particular case study region, the Northeast Corridor.

Energy Perspective: Is Hydroelectricity Green?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Childress, Vincent W.

2009-01-01

The current worldwide concern over energy is primarily related to imported oil, oil drilling and refining capacity, and transportation capacity. However, this concern has bolstered interest in a broader range of "green" energy technologies. In this article, the author discusses the use of hydroelectricity as an alternative energy source…

Becoming allies: Combining social science and technological perspectives to improve energy research and policy making

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diamond, Rick; Moezzi, Mithra

Within the energy research community, social sciences tends to be viewed fairly narrowly, often as simply a marketing tool to change the behavior of consumers and decision makers, and to ''attack market barriers''. As we see it, social sciences, which draws on sociology, psychology, political science, business administration, and other academic disciplines, is capable of far more. A social science perspective can re-align questions in ways that can lead to the development of technologies and technology policy that are much stronger and potentially more successful than they would be otherwise. In most energy policies governing commercial buildings, the prevailing Rmore » and D directives are firmly rooted in a technology framework, one that is generally more quantitative and evaluative than that fostered by the social sciences. To illustrate how social science thinking would approach the goal of achieving high energy performance in the commercial building sector, they focus on the US Department of Energy's Roadmap for commercial buildings (DOE 2000) as a starting point. By ''deconstructing'' the four strategies provided by the Roadmap, they set the stage for proposing a closer partnership between advocates of technology-based and social science-based approaches.« less

Scenarios use to engage scientists and decision-makers in a changing Arctic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, O. A.; Eicken, H.; Payne, J. F.

2015-12-01

Scenarios provide a framework to develop more adaptive Arctic policies that allow decision makers to consider the best available science to address complex relationships and key uncertainties in drivers of change. These drivers may encompass biophysical factors such as climate change, socioeconomic drivers, and wild-cards that represent low likelihood but influential events such as major environmental disasters. We outline some of the lessons learned from the North Slope Science Initiative (NSSI) scenarios project that could help in the development of adaptive science-based policies. Three spatially explicit development scenarios were identified corresponding to low, medium and high resource extraction activities on the North Slope and adjacent seas. In the case of the high energy development scenario science needs were focused on new technology, oil spill response, and the effects of offshore activities on marine mammals important for subsistence. Science needs related to community culture, erosion, permafrost degradation and hunting and trapping on land were also identified for all three scenarios. The NSSI science needs will guide recommendations for future observing efforts, and data from these observing activities could subsequently improve policy guidance for emergency response, subsistence management and other issues. Scenarios at pan-Arctic scales may help improve the development of international policies for resilient northern communities and encourage the use of science to reduce uncertainties in plans for adapting to change in the Arctic.

Influence of urban resilience measures in the magnitude and behaviour of energy fluxes in the city of Porto (Portugal) under a climate change scenario.

PubMed

Rafael, S; Martins, H; Sá, E; Carvalho, D; Borrego, C; Lopes, M

2016-10-01

Different urban resilience measures, such as the increase of urban green areas and the application of white roofs, were evaluated with the WRF-SUEWS modelling system. The case study consists of five heat waves occurring in Porto (Portugal) urban area in a future climate scenario. Meteorological forcing and boundary data were downscaled for Porto urban area from the CMIP5 earth system model MPI-ESM, for the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 scenario. The influence of different resilience measures on the energy balance components was quantified and compared between each other. Results show that the inclusion of green urban areas increases the evaporation and the availability of surface moisture, redirecting the energy to the form of latent heat flux (maximum increase of +200Wm(-2)) rather than to sensible heat. The application of white roofs increases the solar radiation reflection, due to the higher albedo of such surfaces, reducing both sensible and storage heat flux (maximum reductions of -62.8 and -35Wm(-2), respectively). The conjugations of the individual benefits related to each resilience measure shows that this measure is the most effective one in terms of improving the thermal comfort of the urban population, particularly due to the reduction of both sensible and storage heat flux. The obtained results contribute to the knowledge of the surface-atmosphere exchanges and can be of great importance for stakeholders and decision-makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost utility, budget impact, and scenario analysis of racecadotril in addition to oral rehydration for acute diarrhea in children in Malaysia

PubMed Central

Rautenberg, Tamlyn Anne; Zerwes, Ute; Lee, Way Seah

2018-01-01

Objective To perform cost utility (CU) and budget impact (BI) analyses augmented by scenario analyses of critical model structure components to evaluate racecadotril as adjuvant to oral rehydration solution (ORS) for children under 5 years with acute diarrhea in Malaysia. Methods A CU model was adapted to evaluate racecadotril plus ORS vs ORS alone for acute diarrhea in children younger than 5 years from a Malaysian public payer’s perspective. A bespoke BI analysis was undertaken in addition to detailed scenario analyses with respect to critical model structure components. Results According to the CU model, the intervention is less costly and more effective than comparator for the base case with a dominant incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of −RM 1,272,833/quality-adjusted life year (USD −312,726/quality-adjusted life year) in favor of the intervention. According to the BI analysis (assuming an increase of 5% market share per year for racecadotril+ORS for 5 years), the total cumulative incremental percentage reduction in health care expenditure for diarrhea in children is 0.136578%, resulting in a total potential cumulative cost savings of −RM 73,193,603 (USD −17,983,595) over a 5-year period. Results hold true across a range of plausible scenarios focused on critical model components. Conclusion Adjuvant racecadotril vs ORS alone is potentially cost-effective from a Malaysian public payer perspective subject to the assumptions and limitations of the model. BI analysis shows that this translates into potential cost savings for the Malaysian public health care system. Results hold true at evidence-based base case values and over a range of alternate scenarios. PMID:29588606

Energy Analysis Research | Energy Analysis | NREL

Science.gov Websites

innovation through integration. Illustration of NREL energy analysis research, including impact systems analysis integrates all aspects of our capability set to develop future energy system scenarios evaluate and understand the impact of markets, policies, and financing on technology uptake and the impact

Life cycle assessment of four municipal solid waste management scenarios in China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hong Jinglan, E-mail: hongjing@sdu.edu.c; Li Xiangzhi; Zhaojie Cui

2010-11-15

A life cycle assessment was carried out to estimate the environmental impact of municipal solid waste. Four scenarios mostly used in China were compared to assess the influence of various technologies on environment: (1) landfill, (2) incineration, (3) composting plus landfill, and (4) composting plus incineration. In all scenarios, the technologies significantly contribute to global warming and increase the adverse impact of non-carcinogens on the environment. The technologies played only a small role in the impact of carcinogens, respiratory inorganics, terrestrial ecotoxicity, and non-renewable energy. Similarly, the influence of the technologies on the way other elements affect the environment wasmore » ignorable. Specifically, the direct emissions from the operation processes involved played an important role in most scenarios except for incineration, while potential impact generated from transport, infrastructure and energy consumption were quite small. In addition, in the global warming category, highest potential impact was observed in landfill because of the direct methane gas emissions. Electricity recovery from methane gas was the key factor for reducing the potential impact of global warming. Therefore, increasing the use of methane gas to recover electricity is highly recommended to reduce the adverse impact of landfills on the environment.« less

Effect of different scenarios for selective dry-cow therapy on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics.

PubMed

Scherpenzeel, C G M; den Uijl, I E M; van Schaik, G; Riekerink, R G M Olde; Hogeveen, H; Lam, T J G M

2016-05-01

, varying from €4,893 for scenario 5 to €5,383 for scenario 8. The effect of selective DCT compared with BDCT on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics is influenced by the SCC criteria used to select cows for DCT. Scenario 2 resulted in the lowest increases in clinical and subclinical mastitis compared with BDCT. The greatest reduction in antimicrobial usage was achieved under scenario 8. From an economic perspective, lowest costs were achieved with scenario 5. Drying off dairy cows with antimicrobials has an effect on udder health, antimicrobial usage, and economics. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Energy Portfolio Assessment Tool (EPAT): Sustainable Energy Planning Using the WEF Nexus Approach - Texas Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mroue, A. M.

2017-12-01

The future energy portfolio at the national and subnational levels should consider its impact on water resources and environment. Although energy resources are the main contributors to the national economic growth, these resources must not exploit other primary natural resources. A study of the connections between energy and natural systems, such as water, environment and land is required prior to proceeding to energy development. Policy makers are in need of a tool quantifying the interlinkages across energy, water and the environment, while demonstrating the consequent trade-offs across the nexus systems. The Energy Portfolio Assessment Tool (EPAT) is a tool that enables the policy maker to create different energy portfolio scenarios with various energy and electricity sources, and evaluate the scenario's sustainability environmentally and economically. The Water-Energy-Food nexus systematic approach is the foundation of the EPAT framework. The research evaluates the impact of the current and projected Texas energy portfolios on water and the environment, taking into consideration energy production, electricity generation and policy change. The three scenarios to be assessed include EIA projections for energy production, and EIA projections for electricity generation with and without the Clean Power Plan (CPP). Each scenario is accompanied by tradeoffs across water, land, emissions, energy revenue and electricity cost. The CPP succeeds in mitigating the emissions of the electricity portfolio, but leads to an increase in water consumption and land use. The cost of electricity generation is almost identical with and without environmental conservation. Revenue from energy production increased, but results are majorly influenced by commodity price. Therefore, conservation policies should move from the silo to the nexus mentality to avoid unintended consequences as improving one part of the nexus could end up worsening the other parts.

The Anthropocene: A Planetary Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anbar, A. D.; Hartnett, H. E.; York, A.; Selin, C.

2016-12-01

The Anthropocene is a new planetary epoch defined by the emergence of human activity as one of the most important driving forces on Earth, rivaling and also stressing the other systems that govern the planet's habitability. Public discussions and debates about the challenges of this epoch tend to be polarized. One extreme denies that humans have a planetary-scale impact, while the other wishes that this impact could disappear. The tension between these perspectives is often paralyzing. Effective adaptation and mitigation requires a new perspective that reframes the conversation. We propose a planetary perspective according to which this epoch is the result of a recent major innovation in the 4 ­billion ­year history of life on Earth: the emergence of an energy-intensive planetary civilization. The rate of human energy use is already within an order of magnitude of that of the rest of the biosphere, and rising rapidly, and so this innovation is second only to the evolution of photosynthesis in terms of energy capture and utilization by living systems. Such energy use has and will continue to affect Earth at planetary scale. This reality cannot be denied nor wished away. From this pragmatic perspective, the Anthropocene is not an unnatural event that can be reversed, as though humanity is separate from the Earth systems with which we are co-evolving. Rather, it is an evolutionary transition to be managed. This is the challenge of turning a carelessly altered planet into a carefully designed and managed world, maintaining a "safe operating space" for human civilization (Steffen et al., 2011). To do so, we need an integrated approach to Earth systems science that considers humans as a natural and integral component of Earth's systems. Insights drawn from the humanities and the social sciences must be integrated with the natural sciences in order to thrive in this new epoch. This type of integrated perspective is relatively uncontroversial on personal, local, and even

Integrating manufacturing softwares for intelligent planning execution: a CIIMPLEX perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Bei Tseng B.; Tolone, William J.; Wilhelm, Robert G.; Hegedus, M.; Fesko, J.; Finin, T.; Peng, Yun; Jones, Chris H.; Long, Junshen; Matthews, Mike; Mayfield, J.; Shimp, J.; Su, S.

1997-01-01

Recent developments have made it possible to interoperate complex business applications at much lower costs. Application interoperation, along with business process re- engineering can result in significant savings by eliminating work created by disconnected business processes due to isolated business applications. However, we believe much greater productivity benefits can be achieved by facilitating timely decision-making, utilizing information from multiple enterprise perspectives. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is designed to enable such productivity gains by helping people to carry out integrated enterprise scenarios. An enterprise scenario is triggered typically by some external event. The goal of an enterprise scenario is to make the right decisions considering the full context of the problem. Enterprise scenarios are difficult for people to carry out because of the interdependencies among various actions. One can easily be overwhelmed by the large amount of information. We propose the use of software agents to help gathering relevant information and present them in the appropriate context of an enterprise scenario. The CIIMPLEX enterprise integration architecture is based on the FAIME methodology for application interoperation and plug-and-play. It also explores the use of software agents in application plug-and- play.

Progress in understanding and overcoming biomass recalcitrance: a BioEnergy Science Center (BESC) perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilna, Paul; Lynd, Lee R.; Mohnen, Debra

The DOE BioEnergy Science Center has operated as a virtual center with multiple partners for a decade targeting overcoming biomass recalcitrance. BESC has redefined biomass recalcitrance from an observable phenotype to a better understood and manipulatable fundamental and operational property. These manipulations are then the result of deeper biological understanding and can be combined with other advanced biotechnology improvements in biomass conversion to improve bioenergy processes and markets. This article provides an overview of key accomplishments in overcoming recalcitrance via better plants, better microbes, and better tools and combinations. Finally, we present a perspective on the aspects of successful centermore » operation.« less

Progress in understanding and overcoming biomass recalcitrance: a BioEnergy Science Center (BESC) perspective

DOE PAGES

Gilna, Paul; Lynd, Lee R.; Mohnen, Debra; ...

2017-11-30

The DOE BioEnergy Science Center has operated as a virtual center with multiple partners for a decade targeting overcoming biomass recalcitrance. BESC has redefined biomass recalcitrance from an observable phenotype to a better understood and manipulatable fundamental and operational property. These manipulations are then the result of deeper biological understanding and can be combined with other advanced biotechnology improvements in biomass conversion to improve bioenergy processes and markets. This article provides an overview of key accomplishments in overcoming recalcitrance via better plants, better microbes, and better tools and combinations. Finally, we present a perspective on the aspects of successful centermore » operation.« less

Wave energy: a Pacific perspective.

PubMed

Paasch, Robert; Ruehl, Kelley; Hovland, Justin; Meicke, Stephen

2012-01-28

This paper illustrates the status of wave energy development in Pacific rim countries by characterizing the available resource and introducing the region's current and potential future leaders in wave energy converter development. It also describes the existing licensing and permitting process as well as potential environmental concerns. Capabilities of Pacific Ocean testing facilities are described in addition to the region's vision of the future of wave energy.

Development of reduction scenarios for criteria air pollutants emission in Tehran Traffic Sector, Iran.

PubMed

Mohammadiha, Amir; Malakooti, Hossein; Esfahanian, Vahid

2018-05-01

Transport-related pollution as the main source of air pollution must be reduced in Tehran mega-city. The performance of various developed scenarios including BAU (Business As Usual) as baseline scenario, ECV (Elimination of carburetor equipped Vehicle), NEM (New Energy Motorcycles), HES (Higher Emission Standard), VCR (Vehicle Catalyst Replacement), FQE (Fuel Quality Enhancement), DPF (Diesel Particulate Filter) and TSA (Total Scenarios Aggregation) are evaluated by International Vehicle Model up to 2028. In the short term, the ECV, VCR, and FQE scenarios provided high performance in CO, VOCs and NOx emissions control. Also FQE has an excellent effect on SOx emission reduction (86%) and DPF on PM emissions (20%). In the mid-term, the VCR, ECV, and FQE scenarios were presented desirable mean emission reduction on CO, VOCs, and NOx. Moreover, NOx emission reduction of DPF scenario is the most common (14%). Again FQE scenario proves to have great effect on SOx emission reduction in mid-term (86%), DPF and HES scenarios on PM (DPF: 49% and HES: 17%). Finally for the long term, VCR, ECV, FQE, and NEM scenarios were shown good performance in emission control on CO, VOCs and NOx. For SOx only FQE has a good effect in all time periods (FQE: 86%) and DPF and HES scenarios have the best effect on PM emission reduction respectively (DPF: 51% and HES: 27%) compared with BAU scenario. However, DPF scenario increases 12% SOx emission in long-term (2028). It can be generally concluded that VCR and ECV scenarios would achieve a significant reduction on gaseous pollutants emission except for SOx in general and FQE scenarios have desirable performance for all gaseous pollutants in the short term and also for SOx and VOCs in long term. In addition, the DPF and HES would be desirable scenario for emission control on PM in Tehran Traffic Sector. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Differential cross sections in a thick brane world scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedraza, Omar; Arceo, R.; López, L. A.; Cerón, V. E.

2018-04-01

The elastic differential cross section is calculated at low energies for the elements He and Ne using an effective 4D electromagnetic potential coming from the contribution of the massive Kaluza-Klein modes of the 5D vector field in a thick brane scenario. The length scale is adjusted in the potential to compare with known experimental data and to set bounds for the parameter of the model.

Renewable energies in electricity generation for reduction of greenhouse gases in Mexico 2025.

PubMed

Islas, Jorge; Manzini, Fabio; Martínez, Manuel

2002-02-01

This study presents 4 scenarios relating to the environmental futures of electricity generation in Mexico up to the year 2025. The first scenario emphasizes the use of oil products, particularly fuel oil, and represents the historic path of Mexico's energy policy. The second scenario prioritizes the use of natural gas, reflecting the energy consumption pattern that arose in the mid-1990s as a result of reforms in the energy sector. In the third scenario, the high participation of renewable sources of energy is considered feasible from a technical and economic point of view. The fourth scenario takes into account the present- and medium-term use of natural-gas technologies that the energy reform has produced, but after 2007 a high and feasible participation of renewable sources of energy is considered. The 4 scenarios are evaluated up to the year 2025 in terms of greenhouse gases (GHG) and acid rain precursor gases (ARPG).

Future Scenario Development from Disruptive Exploration Technologies and Business Models in the U.S. Geothermal Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wall, Anna

With recent trends toward intermittent renewable energy sources in the U.S., the geothermal industry in its current form faces a crossroad: adapt, disrupt, or be left behind. Strategic planning with scenario analysis offers a framework to characterize plausible views of the future given current trends - as well as disruptions to the status quo. To inform strategic planning in the Department of Energy's (DOE) Geothermal Technology Office (GTO), the Geothermal Vision Study is tasked with offering data-driven pathways for future geothermal development. Scenario analysis is a commonly used tool in private industry corporate strategic planning as a way to prioritizemore » and manage large investments in light of uncertainty and risk. Since much of the uncertainty and risk in a geothermal project is believed to occur within early stage exploration and drilling, this paper focuses on the levers (technical and financial) within the exploration process that can be pulled to affect change. Given these potential changes, this work first qualitatively explores potential shifts to the geothermal industry. Future work within the Geothermal Vision Study will incorporate these qualitative scenarios quantitatively, in competition with other renewable and conventional energy industries.« less

Integrated Scenario Modeling of NSTX Advanced Plasma Configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kessel, Charles; Synakowski, Edward

2003-10-01

The Spherical Torus will provide an attractive fusion energy source if it can demonstrate the following major features: high elongation and triangularity, 100% non-inductive current with a credible path to high bootstrap fractions, non-solenoidal startup and current rampup, high beta with stabilization of RWM instabilities, and sufficiently high energy confinement. NSTX has specific experimental milestones to examine these features, and integrated scenario modeling is helping to understand how these configurations might be produced and what tools are needed to access this operating space. Simulations with the Tokamak Simulation Code (TSC), CURRAY, and JSOLVER/BALMSC/PEST2 have identified fully non-inductively sustained, high beta plasmas that rely on strong plasma shaping accomplished with a PF coil modification, off-axis current drive from Electron Bernstein Waves (EBW), flexible on-axis heating and CD from High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) and Neutral Beam Injection (NBI), and density control. Ideal MHD stability shows that with wall stabilization through plasma rotation and/or RWM feedback coils, a beta of 40% is achievable, with 100% non-inductive current sustained for 4 current diffusion times. Experimental data and theory are combined to produce a best extrapolation to these regimes, which is continuously improved as the discharges approach these parameters, and theoretical/computational methods expand. Further investigations and development for integrated scenario modeling on NSTX is discussed.

FHWA scenario planning guidebook

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-02-01

The purpose of this guidebook is to assist transportation agencies with carrying out a scenario planning process from start to finish. Transportation agencies can use the guidebook as a framework to develop a scenario planning approach tailored to th...

Modulus stabilization in a non-flat warped braneworld scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Banerjee, Indrani; SenGupta, Soumitra

2017-05-01

The stability of the modular field in a warped brane world scenario has been a subject of interest for a long time. Goldberger and Wise (GW) proposed a mechanism to achieve this by invoking a massive scalar field in the bulk space-time neglecting the back-reaction. In this work, we examine the possibility of stabilizing the modulus without bringing about any external scalar field. We show that instead of flat 3-branes as considered in Randall-Sundrum (RS) warped braneworld model, if one considers a more generalized version of warped geometry with de Sitter 3-brane, then the brane vacuum energy automatically leads to a modulus potential with a metastable minimum. Our result further reveals that in this scenario the gauge hierarchy problem can also be resolved for an appropriate choice of the brane's cosmological constant.

Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

2017-12-05

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vimmerstedt, Laura J; Newes, Emily K

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, andmore » provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.« less

Regional Issue Identification and Assessment program (RIIA). Environmental impacts and issues of the EIA MID-MID scenario: Federal Region I (New England)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brainard, J.; Munson, J.S.

1979-04-15

The impacts described here for 1985 and 1990 are based on a national energy projection which assumes medium energy demand and fuel supply through 1990 but does not incorporate the policies of the National Energy Act (NEA). This scenario, referred to as the Projection Series C or the TRENDLONG MID-MID scenario, is one of six possible energy futures developed by the DOE Energy Information Administration for the Department's 1977 Annual Report to Congress. It was chosen as representative of the official DOE national energy projections when this project was initiated, prior to the passage of the National Energy Act. Sincemore » the RIIA program is part of an ongoing review of the regional impact of energy policies, the next phase will examine the National Energy Act (NEA) and initiatives suggested by the President's second National Energy Plan. However, since coal utilization increases under the NEA, in general, impacts identified in the TRENDLONG Series C Scenario should provide a framework for the discussion of impacts by NEA. The environmental impacts discussed in this volume are for Federal Region I (Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut). However, there are nine companion volumes, one for each of the other Federal Regions.« less

Low-mass neutralino dark matter in supergravity scenarios: phenomenology and naturalness

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peiró, M.; Robles, S., E-mail: mpeirogarcia@gmail.com, E-mail: sandra.robles@uam.es

2017-05-01

The latest experimental results from the LHC and dark matter (DM) searches suggest that the parameter space allowed in supersymmetric theories is subject to strong reductions. These bounds are especially constraining for scenarios entailing light DM particles. Previous studies have shown that light neutralino DM in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), with parameters defined at the electroweak scale, is still viable when the low energy spectrum of the model features light sleptons, in which case, the relic density constraint can be fulfilled. In view of this, we have investigated the viability of light neutralinos as DM candidates in themore » MSSM, with parameters defined at the grand unification scale. We have analysed the optimal choices of non-universalities in the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters for both, gauginos and scalars, in order to avoid the stringent experimental constraints. We show that light neutralinos, with a mass as low as 25 GeV, are viable in supergravity scenarios if the gaugino mass parameters at high energy are very non universal, while the scalar masses can remain of the same order. These scenarios typically predict a very small cross section of neutralinos off protons and neutrons, thereby being very challenging for direct detection experiments. However, a potential detection of smuons and selectrons at the LHC, together with a hypothetical discovery of a gamma-ray signal from neutralino annihilations in dwarf spheroidal galaxies could shed light on this kind of solutions. Finally, we have investigated the naturalness of these scenarios, taking into account all the potential sources of tuning. Besides the electroweak fine-tuning, we have found that the tuning to reproduce the correct DM relic abundance and that to match the measured Higgs mass can also be important when estimating the total degree of naturalness.« less

Low-mass neutralino dark matter in supergravity scenarios: phenomenology and naturalness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peiró, M.; Robles, S.

2017-05-01

The latest experimental results from the LHC and dark matter (DM) searches suggest that the parameter space allowed in supersymmetric theories is subject to strong reductions. These bounds are especially constraining for scenarios entailing light DM particles. Previous studies have shown that light neutralino DM in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM), with parameters defined at the electroweak scale, is still viable when the low energy spectrum of the model features light sleptons, in which case, the relic density constraint can be fulfilled. In view of this, we have investigated the viability of light neutralinos as DM candidates in the MSSM, with parameters defined at the grand unification scale. We have analysed the optimal choices of non-universalities in the soft supersymmetry-breaking parameters for both, gauginos and scalars, in order to avoid the stringent experimental constraints. We show that light neutralinos, with a mass as low as 25 GeV, are viable in supergravity scenarios if the gaugino mass parameters at high energy are very non universal, while the scalar masses can remain of the same order. These scenarios typically predict a very small cross section of neutralinos off protons and neutrons, thereby being very challenging for direct detection experiments. However, a potential detection of smuons and selectrons at the LHC, together with a hypothetical discovery of a gamma-ray signal from neutralino annihilations in dwarf spheroidal galaxies could shed light on this kind of solutions. Finally, we have investigated the naturalness of these scenarios, taking into account all the potential sources of tuning. Besides the electroweak fine-tuning, we have found that the tuning to reproduce the correct DM relic abundance and that to match the measured Higgs mass can also be important when estimating the total degree of naturalness.

Black hole formation due to collapsing dark matter in a presence of dark energy in the brane-world scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shah, Hasrat Hussain

In the last three to four decades, various programs have been studied in order to investigate the final fate of gravitational collapse of massive astronomical objects. In the theoretical context, Black Holes (BHs) are the consequence of final stage of the gravitational collapse. In this work, we investigated the gravitational collapse process of a spherically symmetric star constituted of dark matter (DM), ρM, and Dark Energy (DE), ρ in the context of the brane-world scenario. In our model, we discussed the anisotropy of the pressure in a fluid with Equation of State (EoS) pt = kρ and pr = lρ, (l + 2k < ‑1). We briefly discussed various cases of gravitational collapse and it is found that BH can be formed by the gravitational collapse in brane-world regime while in some cases there is only a naked singularity at their end state.

Marine Hydrokinetic Energy Site Identification and Ranking Methodology Part I: Wave Energy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilcher, Levi; Thresher, Robert

Marine hydrokinetic energy is a promising and growing piece of the renewable energy sector that offers high predictability and additional energy sources for a diversified energy economy. This report investigates the market opportunities for wave energy along the U.S. coastlines. It is part one of a two-part investigation into the United State's two largest marine hydrokinetic resources (wave and tidal). Wave energy technology is still an emerging form of renewable energy for which large-scale, grid-connected project costs are currently poorly defined. Ideally, device designers would like to know the resource conditions at economical project sites so they can optimize devicemore » designs. On the other hand, project developers need detailed device cost data to identify sites where projects are economical. That is, device design and siting are, to some extent, a coupled problem. This work describes a methodology for identifying likely deployment locations based on a set of criteria that wave energy experts in industry, academia, and national laboratories agree are likely to be important factors for all technology types. This work groups the data for the six criteria into 'locales' that are defined as the smaller of either the local transmission grid or a state boundary. The former applies to U.S. islands (e.g., Hawaii, American Samoa) and rural villages (e.g., in Alaska); the latter applies to states in the contiguous United States. These data are then scored from 0 to 10 according to scoring functions that were developed with input from wave energy industry and academic experts. The scores are aggregated using a simple product method that includes a weighting factor for each criterion. This work presents two weighting scenarios: a long-term scenario that does not include energy price (weighted zero) and a near term scenario that includes energy price. The aggregated scores are then used to produce ranked lists of likely deployment locales. In both scenarios

Global Transportation Energy Consumption Examination of Scenarios to 2040 using ITEDD

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Energy consumption in the transportation sector is evolving. Over the next 25 years, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) International Energy Outlook (IEO) 2016 Reference case projects that Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries’ transportation energy consumption will remain relatively flat. In contrast, non-OECD countries will grow to levels higher than in OECD countries by the early 2020s. This rapid non-OECD growth results in continued transportation energy consumption growth through at least 2040.

Lighting and energy in perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fisher, W.S.

Lighting has been used far too often as a symbol of energy use. As a result, much of the public is under the impression that lighting is one of the biggest energy users. In this paper the very opposite is proven. By pie diagrams it is seen that lighting uses only 5% of the nation's energy. Mandates to reduce lighting in the event of an oil emergency may be counterproductive as a result. Reductions would be better sought in transportation use (51%) and space heating. In a survey of Portland families, car use was 56%, lighting only 2%. It wasmore » also determined that ''Dad, Mom, and the kids'' use far more energy than all the stores, offices, schools, hotels, motels, and hospitals in the country.« less

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment.

PubMed

Kunkel, Kenneth E; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scales and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.

Scenario Development for the Southwestern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoud, M.; Gupta, H.; Stewart, S.; Liu, Y.; Hartmann, H.; Wagener, T.

2006-12-01

The primary goal of employing a scenario development approach for the U.S. southwest is to inform regional policy by examining future possibilities related to regional vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian restoration. This approach is necessary due to a lack of existing explicit water resources application of scenarios to the entire southwest region. A formal approach for scenario development is adopted and applied towards water resources issues within the arid and semi-arid regions of the U.S. southwest following five progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. In the scenario definition phase, the inputs of scientists, modelers, and stakeholders were collected in order to define and construct relevant scenarios to the southwest and its water sustainability needs. From stakeholder-driven scenario workshops and breakout sessions, the three main axes of principal change were identified to be climate change, population development patterns, and quality of information monitoring technology. Based on the extreme and varying conditions of these three main axes, eight scenario narratives were drafted to describe the state of each scenario's respective future and the events which led to it. Events and situations are described within each scenario narrative with respect to key variables; variables that are both important to regional water resources (as distinguished by scientists and modelers), and are good tracking and monitoring indicators of change. The current phase consists of scenario construction, where the drafted scenarios are re-presented to regional scientists and modelers to verify that proper key variables are included (or excluded) from the eight narratives. The next step is to construct the data sets necessary to implement the eight scenarios on the respective computational models of modelers investigating vegetation change, water-leasing, and riparian

Exclusion of black hole disaster scenarios at the LHC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Benjamin; Bleicher, Marcus; Stöcker, Horst

2009-02-01

The upcoming high energy experiments at the LHC are one of the most outstanding efforts for a better understanding of nature. It is associated with great hopes in the physics community. But there is also some fear in the public, that the conjectured production of mini black holes might lead to a dangerous chain reaction. In this Letter we summarize the most straightforward arguments that are necessary to rule out such doomsday scenarios.

Standard Scenarios for the Less-Lethal Weapons Evaluation Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-08-01

smoke (for obscuration) with chemical irritant. "MODIPAC" - 12 - gauge plastic shotgun shell loaded with polyethyleie shot. Net - A net for entrapment...Oklahoma, U. S. Department of Justice, April 30, 1974 (Grant Numbers 73-TA-08-0004 and 73-DF-06-0053). 12 Ana~lysis of Scenarios a. The developmecnt of...for transmitting electrical energy (e.g., TASER ). Electrical Prod - A device to transmit electrical shock to the target. Heavy Slug - Experimental

[Relationships between settlement morphology transition and residents commuting energy consumption].

PubMed

Zhou, Jian; Xiao, Rong-Bo; Sun, Xiang

2013-07-01

Settlement morphology transition is triggered by rapid urbanization and urban expansion, but its relationships with residents commuting energy consumption remains ambiguous. It is of significance to understand the controlling mechanisms of sustainable public management policies on the energy consumption and greenhouse gases emission during the process of urban settlement morphology transition. Taking the Xiamen City of East China as a case, and by using the integrated land use and transportation modeling system TRANUS, a scenario analysis was made to study the effects of urban settlement morphology transition on the urban spatial distribution of population, jobs, and land use, and on the residents commuting energy consumption and greenhouse gasses emission under different scenarios. The results showed that under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, the energy consumption of the residents at the morning peak travel time was 54.35 tce, and the CO2 emission was 119.12 t. As compared with those under BAU scenario, both the energy consumption and the CO2 emission under the Transition of Settlement Morphology (TSM) scenario increased by 12%, and, with the implementation of the appropriate policies such as land use, transportation, and economy, the energy consumption and CO2 emission under the Transition of Settlement Morphology with Policies (TSMP) scenario reduced by 7%, indicating that urban public management policies could effectively control the growth of residents commuting energy consumption and greenhouse gases emission during the period of urban settlement morphology transition.

Future Arctic temperature change resulting from a range of aerosol emissions scenarios

DOE PAGES

Wobus, Cameron; Flanner, Mark; Sarofim, Marcus C.; ...

2016-05-17

The Arctic temperature response to emissions of aerosols – specifically black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and sulfate – depends on both the sector and the region where these emissions originate. Thus, the net Arctic temperature response to global aerosol emissions reductions will depend strongly on the blend of emissions sources being targeted. We use recently published equilibrium Arctic temperature response factors for BC, OC, and sulfate to estimate the range of present-day and future Arctic temperature changes from seven different aerosol emissions scenarios. Globally, Arctic temperature changes calculated from all of these emissions scenarios indicate that present-day emissions frommore » the domestic and transportation sectors generate the majority of present-day Arctic warming from BC. However, in all of these scenarios, this warming is more than offset by cooling resulting from SO 2 emissions from the energy sector. Thus, long-term climate mitigation strategies that are focused on reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions from the energy sector could generate short-term, aerosol-induced Arctic warming. As a result, a properly phased approach that targets BC-rich emissions from the transportation sector as well as the domestic sectors in key regions – while simultaneously working toward longer-term goals of CO 2 mitigation – could potentially avoid some amount of short-term Arctic warming.« less

Hydrological Sensitivity of Land Use Scenarios for Climate Mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boegh, E.; Friborg, T.; Hansen, K.; Jensen, R.; Seaby, L. P.

2014-12-01

Bringing atmospheric concentration to 550 ppm CO2 or below by 2100 will require large-scale changes to global and national energy systems, and potentially the use of land (IPCC, 2013) The Danish government aims at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) by 40 % in 1990-2020 and energy consumption to be based on 100 % renewable energy by 2035. By 2050, GHG emissions should be reduced by 80-95 %. Strategies developed to reach these goals require land use change to increase the production of biomass for bioenergy, further use of catch crops, reduced nitrogen inputs in agriculture, reduced soil tillage, afforestation and establishment of permanent grass fields. Currently, solar radiation in the growing season is not fully exploited, and it is expected that biomass production for bioenergy can be supported without reductions in food and fodder production. Impacts of climate change on the hydrological sensitivity of biomass growth and soil carbon storage are however not known. The present study evaluates the hydrological sensitivity of Danish land use options for climate mitigation in terms of crop yields (including straw for bioenergy) and net CO2 exchange for wheat, barley, maize and clover under current and future climate conditions. Hydrological sensitivity was evaluated using the agrohydrological model Daisy. Simulations during current climate conditions were in good agreement with measured dry matter, crop nitrogen content and eddy covariance fluxes of water vapour and CO2. Climate scenarios from the European ENSEMBLES database were downscaled for simulating water, nitrogen and carbon balance for 2071-2100. The biomass potential generally increase, but water stress also increases in strength and extends over a longer period, thereby increasing sensitivity to water availability. The potential of different land use scenarios to maximize vegetation cover and biomass for climate mitigation is further discussed in relation to impacts on the energy- and water balance.

Combinatorial structure of genome rearrangements scenarios.

PubMed

Ouangraoua, Aïda; Bergeron, Anne

2010-09-01

In genome rearrangement theory, one of the elusive questions raised in recent years is the enumeration of rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. This problem is related to the uniform generation of rearrangement scenarios and the derivation of tests of statistical significance of the properties of these scenarios. Here we give an exact formula for the number of double-cut-and-join (DCJ) rearrangement scenarios between two genomes. We also construct effective bijections between the set of scenarios that sort a component as well studied combinatorial objects such as parking functions, labeled trees, and prüfer codes.

Life cycle analyses of CO2, energy, and cost for four different routes of microalgal bioenergy conversion.

PubMed

Ventura, Jey-R S; Yang, Benqin; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Kisay; Jahng, Deokjin

2013-06-01

With a target production of 1000 ton of dry algae/yr, lipid content of 30 wt.%, and productivity of 30 g/m(2)-d in a 340-day annual operation, four common scenarios of microalgae bioenergy routes were assessed in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 inputs and outputs. Scenario 1 (biodiesel production), Scenario 2 (Scenario 1 with integrated anaerobic digestion system), Scenario 3 (biogas production), and Scenario 4 (supercritical gasification) were evaluated. Scenario 4 outperformed other scenarios in terms of net energy production (1282.42 kWh/ton algae) and CO2 removal (1.32 ton CO2/ton algae) while Scenario 2 surpassed the other three scenarios in terms of net cost. Scenario 1 produced the lowest energy while Scenario 3 was the most expensive bioenergy system. This study evaluated critical parameters that could direct the proper design of the microalgae bioenergy system with an efficient energy production, CO2 removal, and economic feasibility. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Web Based Tool for Mission Operations Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyles, Carole A.; Bindschadler, Duane L.

2008-01-01

A conventional practice for spaceflight projects is to document scenarios in a monolithic Operations Concept document. Such documents can be hundreds of pages long and may require laborious updates. Software development practice utilizes scenarios in the form of smaller, individual use cases, which are often structured and managed using UML. We have developed a process and a web-based scenario tool that utilizes a similar philosophy of smaller, more compact scenarios (but avoids the formality of UML). The need for a scenario process and tool became apparent during the authors' work on a large astrophysics mission. It was noted that every phase of the Mission (e.g., formulation, design, verification and validation, and operations) looked back to scenarios to assess completeness of requirements and design. It was also noted that terminology needed to be clarified and structured to assure communication across all levels of the project. Attempts to manage, communicate, and evolve scenarios at all levels of a project using conventional tools (e.g., Excel) and methods (Scenario Working Group meetings) were not effective given limitations on budget and staffing. The objective of this paper is to document the scenario process and tool created to offer projects a low-cost capability to create, communicate, manage, and evolve scenarios throughout project development. The process and tool have the further benefit of allowing the association of requirements with particular scenarios, establishing and viewing relationships between higher- and lower-level scenarios, and the ability to place all scenarios in a shared context. The resulting structured set of scenarios is widely visible (using a web browser), easily updated, and can be searched according to various criteria including the level (e.g., Project, System, and Team) and Mission Phase. Scenarios are maintained in a web-accessible environment that provides a structured set of scenario fields and allows for maximum

Energy Impacts of Wide Band Gap Semiconductors in U.S. Light-Duty Electric Vehicle Fleet

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Warren, Joshua A.; Riddle, Matthew E.; Graziano, Diane J.

2015-08-12

Silicon carbide and gallium nitride, two leading wide band gap semiconductors with significant potential in electric vehicle power electronics, are examined from a life cycle energy perspective and compared with incumbent silicon in U.S. light-duty electric vehicle fleet. Cradle-to-gate, silicon carbide is estimated to require more than twice the energy as silicon. However, the magnitude of vehicle use phase fuel savings potential is comparatively several orders of magnitude higher than the marginal increase in cradle-to-gate energy. Gallium nitride cradle-to-gate energy requirements are estimated to be similar to silicon, with use phase savings potential similar to or exceeding that of siliconmore » carbide. Potential energy reductions in the United States vehicle fleet are examined through several scenarios that consider the market adoption potential of electric vehicles themselves, as well as the market adoption potential of wide band gap semiconductors in electric vehicles. For the 2015–2050 time frame, cumulative energy savings associated with the deployment of wide band gap semiconductors are estimated to range from 2–20 billion GJ depending on market adoption dynamics.« less

Shifting primary energy source and NOx emission location with plug-in hybrid vehicles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karman, Deniz

2011-06-01

Plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) present an interesting technological opportunity for using non-fossil primary energy in light duty passenger vehicles, with the associated potential for reducing air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, to the extent that the electric power grid is fed by non-fossil sources. This perspective, accompanying the article by Thompson et al (2011) in this issue, will touch on two other studies that are directly related: the Argonne study (Elgowainy et al 2010) and a PhD thesis from Utrecht (van Vliet 2010). Thompson et al (2011) have examined air quality effects in a case where the grid is predominantly fossil fed. They estimate a reduction of 7.42 tons/day of NOx from motor vehicles as a result of substituting electric VMTs for 20% of the light duty gasoline vehicle miles traveled. To estimate the impact of this reduction on air quality they also consider the increases in NOx emissions due to the increased load on electricity generating units. The NOx emission increases are estimated as 4.0, 5.5 and 6.3 tons for the Convenience, Battery and Night charging scenarios respectively. The net reductions are thus in the 1.1-3.4 tons/day range. The air quality modelling results presented show that the air quality impact from a ground-level ozone perspective is favorable overall, and while the effect is stronger in some localities, the difference between the three scenarios is small. This is quite significant and suggests that localization of the NOx emissions to point sources has a more pronounced effect than the absolute reductions achieved. Furthermore it demonstrates that localization of NOx emissions to electricity generating units by using PHEVs in vehicle traffic has beneficial effects for air quality not only by minimizing direct human exposure to motor vehicle emissions, but also due to reduced exposure to secondary pollutants (i.e. ozone). In an electric power grid with a smaller share of fossil fired generating units, the beneficial

Innovations in science and scenarios for assessment

DOE PAGES

Kunkel, Kenneth E.; Moss, Richard; Parris, Adam

2015-08-29

Scenarios for the Third National Climate Assessment (NCA3) were produced for physical climate and sea level rise with substantial input from disciplinary and regional experts. These scenarios underwent extensive review and were published as NOAA Technical Reports. For land use/cover and socioeconomic conditions, scenarios already developed by other agencies were specified for use in the NCA3. Efforts to enhance participatory scenario planning as an assessment activity were pursued, but with limited success. Issues and challenges included the timing of availability of scenarios, the need for guidance in use of scenarios, the need for approaches to nest information within multiple scalesmore » and sectors, engagement and collaboration of end users in scenario development, and development of integrated scenarios. Future assessments would benefit from an earlier start to scenarios development, the provision of training in addition to guidance documents, new and flexible approaches for nesting information, ongoing engagement and advice from both scientific and end user communities, and the development of consistent and integrated scenarios.« less

Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

PubMed

Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

2014-08-19

Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

Mars base buildup scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Blacic, J. D.

1986-01-01

Two Mars surface based build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second senario, Earth development of an infrastructure to exploit the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first in this scenario relative to the first, but once begun develops rapidly, aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station.

Development scenario for laser fusion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maniscalco, J.A.; Hovingh, J.; Buntzen, R.R.

1976-03-30

This scenario proposes establishment of test and engineering facilities to (1) investigate the technological problems associated with laser fusion, (2) demonstrate fissile fuel production, and (3) demonstrate competitive electrical power production. Such facilities would be major milestones along the road to a laser-fusion power economy. The relevant engineering and economic aspects of each of these research and development facilities are discussed. Pellet design and gain predictions corresponding to the most promising laser systems are presented for each plant. The results show that laser fusion has the potential to make a significant contribution to our energy needs. Beginning in the earlymore » 1990's, this new technology could be used to produce fissile fuel, and after the turn of the century it could be used to generate electrical power.« less

The Economic Potential of Three Nuclear-Renewable Hybrid Energy Systems Providing Thermal Energy to Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark; Cutler, Dylan; Flores-Espino, Francisco

This report is one of a series of reports that Idaho National Laboratory and National Renewable Energy Laboratory are producing to investigate the technical and economic aspects of nuclear-renewable hybrid energy systems (N-R HESs). Previous reports provided results of an analysis of two N-R HES scenarios. This report builds that analysis with a Texas-synthetic gasoline scenario providing the basis in which the N-R HES sells heat directly to an industrial customer. Subsystems were included that convert electricity to heat, thus allowing the renewable energy subsystem to generate heat and benefit from that revenue stream. Nuclear and renewable energy sources aremore » important to consider in the energy sector's evolution because both are considered to be clean and non-carbon-emitting energy sources.« less

Development of robust building energy demand-side control strategy under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Sean Hay

The potential of carbon emission regulations applied to an individual building will encourage building owners to purchase utility-provided green power or to employ onsite renewable energy generation. As both cases are based on intermittent renewable energy sources, demand side control is a fundamental precondition for maximizing the effectiveness of using renewable energy sources. Such control leads to a reduction in peak demand and/or in energy demand variability, therefore, such reduction in the demand profile eventually enhances the efficiency of an erratic supply of renewable energy. The combined operation of active thermal energy storage and passive building thermal mass has shown substantial improvement in demand-side control performance when compared to current state-of-the-art demand-side control measures. Specifically, "model-based" optimal control for this operation has the potential to significantly increase performance and bring economic advantages. However, due to the uncertainty in certain operating conditions in the field its control effectiveness could be diminished and/or seriously damaged, which results in poor performance. This dissertation pursues improvements of current demand-side controls under uncertainty by proposing a robust supervisory demand-side control strategy that is designed to be immune from uncertainty and perform consistently under uncertain conditions. Uniqueness and superiority of the proposed robust demand-side controls are found as below: a. It is developed based on fundamental studies about uncertainty and a systematic approach to uncertainty analysis. b. It reduces variability of performance under varied conditions, and thus avoids the worst case scenario. c. It is reactive in cases of critical "discrepancies" observed caused by the unpredictable uncertainty that typically scenario uncertainty imposes, and thus it increases control efficiency. This is obtainable by means of i) multi-source composition of weather forecasts

Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Aerosol Emission Scenarios on Hydrology in the Mekong Basins and their Effects on Irrigation and Hydropower

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yeo, L. K.; Wang, C.

2016-12-01

Water distribution is closely linked to food and energy security. Aerosol emissions affect cloud properties, as well as atmospheric stability, changing the distribution of precipitation. These changes in precipitation causes changes in water availability, affecting food production and energy generation. These impacts are especially important in Southeast Asia, which uses up to 90% of their water supply for irrigation. In addition, the Mekong river, the largest inland fishery in the world, has 30,000MW of hydropower potential in its lower reaches alone. Modelling the impacts of these anthropogenic emission scenarios will allow us to better understand their downstream effects on hydrology, and any potential feedbacks it may have on future aerosol emissions. In the first step, we run the WRF model using FNL reanlaysis data from 2014 and 2015 to generate the WRF-hydro model forcing inputs. We then run the WRF-hydro model and compare the output with current measurements of soil moisture, river flow, and precipitation. Secondly, we run the WRF-Chem model with various anthropogenic emission scenarios and put the results through the WRF-hydro model to determine the impact of these emission scenarios on soil moisture and river flow. The scenarios include enhanced anthropogenic emissions in Asia, anologous to widespread adoption of coal burning as an energy source in Asia. Anthropogenic emissions have the potential to affect energy policy in countries affected by these emissions. When hydropower generation is affected by changes in precipitation, the affected countries will have to switch to alternative sources of fuel to meet their energy needs. These sources typically result in changes in anthropogenic aerosol emisssions, especially if coal is used as an alternative source of energy.

Oil substitution and energy saving - A research and development strategy of the International Energy Agency /IEA/

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rath-Nagel, S.

1981-03-01

Systems analyses were carried out by the International Energy Agency for the participating 15 countries in order to work out strategies and scenarios for lessening the dependence on imported oil and for developing new energy technologies. MARKAL model computations show the technology and energy mixes necessary for achieving a reduction of oil imports by two thirds over the next 40 years. The scenario 'high social security' examines the projected rise in energy consumption, the development of oil substitutes, the increase in alternative heating sources, the development of markets for liquid energy products, the demand for gas, and the relative usage of various energy generation methods. The recommended strategy involves as the most important points an increase in coal consumption, greater nuclear energy reliance and development of alternative technologies.

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario

PubMed Central

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)—weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will

Offshore Wind Energy Climate Projection Using UPSCALE Climate Data under the RCP8.5 Emission Scenario.

PubMed

Gross, Markus; Magar, Vanesa

2016-01-01

In previous work, the authors demonstrated how data from climate simulations can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular, it was shown that the quality of wind power densities, estimated from the UPSCALE global dataset in offshore regions of Mexico, compared well with regional high resolution studies. Additionally, a link between surface temperature and moist air density in the estimates was presented. UPSCALE is an acronym for UK on PRACE (the Partnership for Advanced Computing in Europe)-weather-resolving Simulations of Climate for globAL Environmental risk. The UPSCALE experiment was performed in 2012 by NCAS (National Centre for Atmospheric Science)-Climate, at the University of Reading and the UK Met Office Hadley Centre. The study included a 25.6-year, five-member ensemble simulation of the HadGEM3 global atmosphere, at 25km resolution for present climate conditions. The initial conditions for the ensemble runs were taken from consecutive days of a test configuration. In the present paper, the emphasis is placed on the single climate run for a potential future climate scenario in the UPSCALE experiment dataset, using the Representation Concentrations Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. Firstly, some tests were performed to ensure that the results using only one instantiation of the current climate dataset are as robust as possible within the constraints of the available data. In order to achieve this, an artificial time series over a longer sampling period was created. Then, it was shown that these longer time series provided almost the same results than the short ones, thus leading to the argument that the short time series is sufficient to capture the climate. Finally, with the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient, the future climate dataset was analysed to provide, for the first time, a projection of future changes in wind power resources using the UPSCALE dataset. It is hoped that this, in turn, will provide

Scenarios of Earth system change in western Canada: Conceptual understanding and process insights from the Changing Cold Regions Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeBeer, C. M.; Wheater, H. S.; Pomeroy, J. W.; Stewart, R. E.; Turetsky, M. R.; Baltzer, J. L.; Pietroniro, A.; Marsh, P.; Carey, S.; Howard, A.; Barr, A.; Elshamy, M.

2017-12-01

The interior of western Canada has been experiencing rapid, widespread, and severe hydroclimatic change in recent decades, and this is projected to continue in the future. To better assess future hydrological, cryospheric and ecological states and fluxes under future climates, a regional hydroclimate project was formed under the auspices of the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) project of the World Climate Research Programme; the Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN; www.ccrnetwork.ca) aims to understand, diagnose, and predict interactions among the changing Earth system components at multiple spatial scales over the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River basins of western Canada. A particular challenge is in applying land surface and hydrological models under future climates, as system changes and cold regions process interactions are not often straightforward, and model structures and parameterizations based on historical observations and understanding of contemporary system functioning may not adequately capture these complexities. To address this and provide guidance and direction to the modelling community, CCRN has drawn insights from a multi-disciplinary perspective on the process controls and system trajectories to develop a set of feasible scenarios of change for the 21st century across the region. This presentation will describe CCRN's efforts towards formalizing these insights and applying them in a large-scale modelling context. This will address what are seen as the most critical processes and key drivers affecting hydrological, cryospheric and ecological change, how these will most likely evolve in the coming decades, and how these are parameterized and incorporated as future scenarios for terrestrial ecology, hydrological functioning, permafrost state, glaciers, agriculture, and water management.

The use of scenarios for long-range planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyons, John V.

Scenario planning is a method of organizing and understanding large amounts of quantitative and qualitative data for leaders to make better strategic decisions. There is a lack of academic research about scenario planning with a subsequent shortage of definitions and theories. This study utilized a case study methodology to analyze scenario planning by investor-owned electric utilities in the Pacific Northwest in their integrated resource planning (IRP) process. The cases include Avista Corporation, Idaho Power, PacifiCorp, Portland General Electric, and Puget Sound Energy. This study sought to determine how scenario planning was used, what scenario approach was used, the scenario outcomes, and the similarities and differences in the scenario planning processes. The literature review of this study covered the development of scenario planning, common definitions and theories, approaches to scenario development, and scenario outcomes. A research methodology was developed to classify the scenario development approach into intuitive, hybrid, or quantitative approaches; and scenario outcomes of changed thinking, stories of plausible futures, improved decision making, and enhanced organizational learning. The study found all three forms of scenario planning in the IRPs. All of the cases used a similar approach to IRP development. All of the cases had at least improved decision making as an outcome of scenario planning. Only one case demonstrated all four scenario outcomes. A critical finding was a correlation between the use of the intuitive approach and the use of all scenario outcomes. Another major finding was the unique use of predetermined elements, which are normally consistent across scenarios, but became critical uncertainties in some of the scenarios in the cases for this study. This finding will need to be confirmed by future research as unique to the industry or an aberration. An unusually high number of scenarios were found for cases using the hybrid approach

Renewable energy sources and the realities of setting an energy agenda.

PubMed

Potocnik, Janez

2007-02-09

The European Commission has been devoting considerable attention to energy issues. This Perspective describes recent progress in Europe toward achieving goals for renewable energy use, and the role that technology can play, as well as the new Strategic Energy Package.

Energy efficiency evaluation of hospital building office

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fitriani, Indah; Sangadji, Senot; Kristiawan, S. A.

2017-01-01

One of the strategy employed in building design is reducing energy consumption while maintaining the best comfort zone in building indoor climate. The first step to improve office buildings energy performance by evaluating its existing energy usage using energy consumption intensity (Intensitas Konsumsi Energi, IKE) index. Energy evaluation of office building for hospital dr. Sayidiman at Kabupaten Magetan has been carried out in the initial investigation. The office building is operated with active cooling (air conditioning, AC) and use limited daylighting which consumes 14.61 kWh/m2/month. This IKE value is attributed into a slightly inefficient category. Further investigation was carried out by modeling and simulating thermal energy load and room lighting in every building zone using of Ecotect from Autodesk. Three scenarios of building energy and lighting retrofit have been performed simulating representing energy efficiency using cross ventilation, room openings, and passive cooling. The results of the numerical simulation indicate that the third scenario by employing additional windows, reflector media and skylight exhibit the best result and in accordance with SNI 03-6575-2001 lighting standard. Total thermal load of the existing building which includes fabric gains, indirect solar gains, direct solar gains, ventilation fans, internal gains, inter-zonal gains and cooling load were 162,145.40 kWh. Based on the three scenarios, the thermal load value (kWh) obtained was lowest achieved scenario 2 with the thermal value of 117,539.08 kWh.The final results are interpreted from the total energy emissions evaluated using the Ecotect software, the heating and cooling demand value and specific design of the windows are important factors to determine the energy efficiency of the buildings.

DEVELOPMENT OF IMPACT ORIENTED CLIMATE SCENARIOS

EPA Science Inventory

Appropriate scenarios of future climate must be developed prior to any assessment of the impacts of climate change. he information needed by impact assessors was examined in consultation with those having experience in scenario use. ost assessors require regional scenarios with a...

Energy crops on landfills: functional, environmental, and costs analysis of different landfill configurations.

PubMed

Pivato, Alberto; Garbo, Francesco; Moretto, Marco; Lavagnolo, Maria Cristina

2018-02-09

The cultivation of energy crops on landfills represents an important challenge for the near future, as the possibility to use devalued sites for energy production is very attractive. In this study, four scenarios have been assessed and compared with respect to a reference case defined for northern Italy. The scenarios were defined taking into consideration current energy crops issues. In particular, the first three scenarios were based on energy maximisation, phytotreatment ability, and environmental impact, respectively. The fourth scenario was a combination of these characteristics emphasised by the previous scenarios. A multi-criteria analysis, based on economic, energetic, and environmental aspects, was performed. From the analysis, the best scenario resulted to be the fourth, with its ability to pursue several objectives simultaneously and obtain the best score relatively to both environmental and energetic criteria. On the contrary, the economic criterion emerges as weak, as all the considered scenarios showed some limits from this point of view. Important indications for future designs can be derived. The decrease of leachate production due to the presence of energy crops on the top cover, which enhances evapotranspiration, represents a favourable but critical aspect in the definition of the results.

Towards realistic Holocene land cover scenarios: integration of archaeological, palynological and geomorphological records and comparison to global land cover scenarios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Brue, Hanne; Verstraeten, Gert; Broothaerts, Nils; Notebaert, Bastiaan

2016-04-01

Accurate and spatially explicit landscape reconstructions for distinct time periods in human history are essential for the quantification of the effect of anthropogenic land cover changes on, e.g., global biogeochemical cycles, ecology, and geomorphic processes, and to improve our understanding of interaction between humans and the environment in general. A long-term perspective covering Mid and Late Holocene land use changes is recommended in this context, as it provides a baseline to evaluate human impact in more recent periods. Previous efforts to assess the evolution and intensity of agricultural land cover in past centuries or millennia have predominantly focused on palynological records. An increasing number of quantitative techniques has been developed during the last two decades to transfer palynological data to land cover estimates. However, these techniques have to deal with equifinality issues and, furthermore, do not sufficiently allow to reconstruct spatial patterns of past land cover. On the other hand, several continental and global databases of historical anthropogenic land cover changes based on estimates of global population and the required agricultural land per capita have been developed in the past decennium. However, at such long temporal and spatial scales, reconstruction of past anthropogenic land cover intensities and spatial patterns necessarily involves many uncertainties and assumptions as well. Here, we present a novel approach that combines archaeological, palynological and geomorphological data for the Dijle catchment in the central Belgium Loess Belt in order to arrive at more realistic Holocene land cover histories. Multiple land cover scenarios (> 60.000) are constructed using probabilistic rules and used as input into a sediment delivery model (WaTEM/SEDEM). Model outcomes are confronted with a detailed geomorphic dataset on Holocene sediment fluxes and with REVEALS based estimates of vegetation cover using palynological data from

Life-cycle energy impacts for adapting an urban water supply system to droughts.

PubMed

Lam, Ka Leung; Stokes-Draut, Jennifer R; Horvath, Arpad; Lane, Joe L; Kenway, Steven J; Lant, Paul A

2017-12-15

In recent years, cities in some water stressed regions have explored alternative water sources such as seawater desalination and potable water recycling in spite of concerns over increasing energy consumption. In this study, we evaluate the current and future life-cycle energy impacts of four alternative water supply strategies introduced during a decade-long drought in South East Queensland (SEQ), Australia. These strategies were: seawater desalination, indirect potable water recycling, network integration, and rainwater tanks. Our work highlights the energy burden of alternative water supply strategies which added approximately 24% life-cycle energy use to the existing supply system (with surface water sources) in SEQ even for a current post-drought low utilisation status. Over half of this additional life-cycle energy use was from the centralised alternative supply strategies. Rainwater tanks contributed an estimated 3% to regional water supply, but added over 10% life-cycle energy use to the existing system. In the future scenario analysis, we compare the life-cycle energy use between "Normal", "Dry", "High water demand" and "Design capacity" scenarios. In the "Normal" scenario, a long-term low utilisation of the desalination system and the water recycling system has greatly reduced the energy burden of these centralised strategies to only 13%. In contrast, higher utilisation in the unlikely "Dry" and "Design capacity" scenarios add 86% and 140% to life-cycle energy use of the existing system respectively. In the "High water demand" scenario, a 20% increase in per capita water use over 20 years "consumes" more energy than is used by the four alternative strategies in the "Normal" scenario. This research provides insight for developing more realistic long-term scenarios to evaluate and compare life-cycle energy impacts of drought-adaptation infrastructure and regional decentralised water sources. Scenario building for life-cycle assessments of water supply

Biomass Scenario Model: BETO Analysis Platform Peer Review; NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, B.

2015-03-23

The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique, carefully validated, state-of-the-art fourth-generation model of the domestic bioenergy supply chain which explicitly focuses on policy issues and their potential side effects. It integrates resource availability, behavior, policy, and physical, technological, and economic constraints. The BSM uses system-dynamics simulation to model dynamic interactions across the supply chain; it tracks the deployment of biofuels given technological development and the reaction of the investment community to those technologies in the context of land availability, the competing oil market, consumer demand for biofuels, and government policies over time. It places a strong emphasis on themore » behavior and decision-making of various economic agents. The model treats the major infrastructure-compatible fuels. Scenario analysis based on the BSM shows that the biofuels industry tends not to rapidly thrive without significant external actions in the early years of its evolution. An initial focus for jumpstarting the industry typically has strongest results in the BSM in areas where effects of intervention have been identified to be multiplicative. In general, we find that policies which are coordinated across the whole supply chain have significant impact in fostering the growth of the biofuels industry and that the production of tens of billions of gallons of biofuels may occur under sufficiently favorable conditions.« less

Understanding the influence of power and empathic perspective-taking on collaborative natural resource management.

PubMed

Wald, Dara M; Segal, Elizabeth A; Johnston, Erik W; Vinze, Ajay

2017-09-01

Public engagement in collaborative natural resource management necessitates shared understanding and collaboration. Empathic perspective-taking is a critical facilitator of shared understanding and positive social interactions, such as collaboration. Yet there is currently little understanding about how to reliably generate empathic perspective-taking and collaboration, particularly in situations involving the unequal distribution of environmental resources or power. Here we examine how experiencing the loss or gain of social power influenced empathic perspective-taking and behavior within a computer-mediated scenario. Participants (n = 180) were randomly assigned to each condition: high resources, low resources, lose resources, gain resources. Contrary to our expectations, participants in the perspective-taking condition, specifically those who lost resources, also lost perspective taking and exhibited egoistic behavior. This finding suggests that resource control within the collaborative process is a key contextual variable that influences perspective-taking and collaborative behavior. Moreover, the observed relationship between perspective-taking and egoistic behavior within a collaborative resource sharing exercise suggests that when resource control or access is unequal, interventions to promote perspective-taking deserve careful consideration. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multiple perspective vulnerability analysis of the power network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shuliang; Zhang, Jianhua; Duan, Na

2018-02-01

To understand the vulnerability of the power network from multiple perspectives, multi-angle and multi-dimensional vulnerability analysis as well as community based vulnerability analysis are proposed in this paper. Taking into account of central China power grid as an example, correlation analysis of different vulnerability models is discussed. Then, vulnerabilities produced by different vulnerability metrics under the given vulnerability models and failure scenarios are analyzed. At last, applying the community detecting approach, critical areas of central China power grid are identified, Vulnerable and robust communities on both topological and functional perspective are acquired and analyzed. The approach introduced in this paper can be used to help decision makers develop optimal protection strategies. It will be also useful to give a multiple vulnerability analysis of the other infrastructure systems.

Expanded Capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bush, Brian; Melaina, Marc; Penev, Michael

This presentation describes how NREL expanded the capabilities for the Hydrogen Financial Analysis Scenario Tool (H2FAST) in FY16. It was presented at the U.S. Department of Energy Hydrogen and Fuel Cells Program 2016 Annual Merit Review and Peer Evaluation Meeting on June 8, 2016, in Washington, D.C.

Scenarios of global mercury emissions from anthropogenic sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rafaj, P.; Bertok, I.; Cofala, J.; Schöpp, W.

2013-11-01

This paper discusses the impact of air quality and climate policies on global mercury emissions in the time horizon up to 2050. Evolution of mercury emissions is based on projections of energy consumption for a scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and for a 2 °C climate policy scenario, which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. The assessment takes into account current air quality legislation in each country, as well as provides estimates of maximum feasible reductions in mercury through 2050. Results indicate significant scope for co-benefits of climate policies for mercury emissions. Atmospheric releases of mercury from anthropogenic sources under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 45% when compared to the case without climate measures. Around one third of world-wide co-benefits for mercury emissions by 2050 occur in China. An annual Hg-abatement of about 800 tons is estimated for the coal combustion in power sector if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel.

The Energy Puzzle Between the United States and China

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-01

information if it does not display a currently valid OMB control number. PLEASE DO NOT RETURN YOUR FORM TO THE ABOVE ADDRESS. 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM...development, energy growth and developments in energy technology. It concludes with the best case scenario of the two countries building a trust that...development, energy growth and developments in energy technology. It concludes with the best case scenario of the two countries building a trust that will

Very high-energy gamma-ray signature of ultrahigh-energy cosmic ray acceleration in Centaurus A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Miranda, Luis Salvador; Razzaque, Soebur; Yang, Lili

2018-07-01

The association of at least a dozen ultrahigh-energy cosmic ray (UHECR) events with energy ≳ 55 EeV detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory from the direction of Centaurus-A, the nearest radio galaxy, supports the scenario of UHECR acceleration in the jets of radio galaxies. In this work, we model radio to very high energy (VHE,≳ 100 GeV) γ-ray emission from Cen A, including GeV hardness detected by Fermi-LAT and TeV emission detected by the High Energy Stereoscopic System (HESS). We consider two scenarios: (i) two-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and external-Compton (EC) models, (ii) two-zone SSC, EC, and photohadronic emission from cosmic ray interactions. The GeV hardness observed by Fermi-LAT can be explained using these two scenarios, where zone 2 EC emission is very important. Hadronic emission in scenario (ii) can explain VHE data with the same spectral slope as obtained through fitting UHECRs from Cen A. The peak luminosity in cosmic ray proton at 1 TeV, to explain the VHE γ-ray data is ≈2.5 × 1046 erg s-1. The bolometric luminosity in cosmic ray protons is consistent with the luminosity required to explain the origin of 13 UHECR signal events that are correlated with Cen A.

Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

DOE PAGES

Ellis, John; Evans, Jason L.; Luo, Feng; ...

2016-02-11

In this article, we study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parametermore » space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m X ≲ 8TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.« less

Thermal effects and sudden decay approximation in the curvaton scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kitajima, Naoya; Takesako, Tomohiro; Yokoyama, Shuichiro

2014-10-01

We study the impact of a temperature-dependent curvaton decay rate on the primordial curvature perturbation generated in the curvaton scenario. Using the familiar sudden decay approximation, we obtain an analytical expression for the curvature perturbation after the decay of the curvaton. We then investigate numerically the evolution of the background and of the perturbations during the decay. We first show that the instantaneous transfer coefficient, related to the curvaton energy fraction at the decay, can be extended into a more general parameter, which depends on the net transfer of the curvaton energy into radiation energy or, equivalently, on the totalmore » entropy ratio after the complete curvaton decay. We then compute the curvature perturbation and compare this result with the sudden decay approximation prediction.« less

Food waste conversion options in Singapore: environmental impacts based on an LCA perspective.

PubMed

Khoo, Hsien H; Lim, Teik Z; Tan, Reginald B H

2010-02-15

Proper management and recycling of huge volumes of food waste is one of the challenges faced by Singapore. Semakau island - the only offshore landfill of the nation - only accepts inert, inorganic solid waste and therefore a large bulk of food waste is directed to incinerators. A remaining small percent is sent for recycling via anaerobic digestion (AD), followed by composting of the digestate material. This article investigates the environmental performance of four food waste conversion scenarios - based on a life cycle assessment perspective - taking into account air emissions, useful energy from the incinerators and AD process, as well as carbon dioxide mitigation from the compost products derived from the digestate material and a proposed aerobic composting system. The life cycle impact results were generated for global warming, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidation and energy use. The total normalized results showed that a small-scale proposed aerobic composting system is more environmentally favorable than incinerators, but less ideal compared to the AD process. By making full use of the AD's Recycling Phase II process alone, the Singapore Green Plan's 2012 aim to increase the recycling of food waste to 30% can easily be achieved, along with reduced global warming impacts.

The use of multi criteria analysis to compare the operating scenarios of the hybrid generation system of wind turbines, photovoltaic modules and a fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ceran, Bartosz

2017-11-01

The paper presents the results of the use of multi-criteria analysis to compare hybrid power generation system collaboration scenarios (HSW) consisting of wind turbines, solar panels and energy storage electrolyzer - PEM type fuel cell with electricity system. The following scenarios were examined: the base S-I-hybrid system powers the off-grid mode receiver, S-II, S-III, S-IV scenarios-electricity system covers 25%, 50%, 75% of energy demand by the recipient. The effect of weights of the above-mentioned criteria on the final result of the multi-criteria analysis was examined.

Modelling controlled VDE's and ramp-down scenarios in ITER

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lodestro, L. L.; Kolesnikov, R. A.; Meyer, W. H.; Pearlstein, L. D.; Humphreys, D. A.; Walker, M. L.

2011-10-01

Following the design reviews of recent years, the ITER poloidal-field coil-set design, including in-vessel coils (VS3), and the divertor configuration have settled down. The divertor and its material composition (the latter has not been finalized) affect the development of fiducial equilibria and scenarios together with the coils through constraints on strike-point locations and limits on the PF and control systems. Previously we have reported on our studies simulating controlled vertical events in ITER with the JCT 2001 controller to which we added a PID VS3 circuit. In this paper we report and compare controlled VDE results using an optimized integrated VS and shape controller in the updated configuration. We also present our recent simulations of alternate ramp-down scenarios, looking at the effects of ramp-down time and shape strategies, using these controllers. This work performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by LLNL under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

2017-03-01

Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay

This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

Simulated ground motion in Santa Clara Valley, California, and vicinity from M≥6.7 scenario earthquakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmsen, Stephen C.; Hartzell, Stephen

2008-01-01

Models of the Santa Clara Valley (SCV) 3D velocity structure and 3D finite-difference software are used to predict ground motions from scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas (SAF), Monte Vista/Shannon, South Hayward, and Calaveras faults. Twenty different scenario ruptures are considered that explore different source models with alternative hypocenters, fault dimensions, and rupture velocities and three different velocity models. Ground motion from the full wave field up to 1 Hz is exhibited as maps of peak horizontal velocity and pseudospectral acceleration at periods of 1, 3, and 5 sec. Basin edge effects and amplification in sedimentary basins of the SCV are observed that exhibit effects from shallow sediments with relatively low shear-wave velocity (330 m/sec). Scenario earthquakes have been simulated for events with the following magnitudes: (1) M 6.8–7.4 Calaveras sources, (2) M 6.7–6.9 South Hayward sources, (3) M 6.7 Monte Vista/Shannon sources, and (4) M 7.1–7.2 Peninsula segment of the SAF sources. Ground motions are strongly influenced by source parameters such as rupture velocity, rise time, maximum depth of rupture, hypocenter, and source directivity. Cenozoic basins also exert a strong influence on ground motion. For example, the Evergreen Basin on the northeastern side of the SCV is especially responsive to 3–5-sec energy from most scenario earthquakes. The Cupertino Basin on the southwestern edge of the SCV tends to be highly excited by many Peninsula and Monte Vista fault scenarios. Sites over the interior of the Evergreen Basin can have long-duration coda that reflect the trapping of seismic energy within this basin. Plausible scenarios produce predominantly 5-sec wave trains with greater than 30 cm/sec sustained ground-motion amplitude with greater than 30 sec duration within the Evergreen Basin.

Reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions of magnesia refractory products: A life-cycle perspective

DOE PAGES

An, Jing; Li, Yingnan; Middleton, Richard S.

2018-02-20

China is the largest producer of magnesia refractory materials and products in the world, resulting in significant energy consumption and carbon emissions. This paper analyzes measures to reduce both the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the production phase and use phase, providing a theoretical basis for a sustainable magnesia refractory industry. Results show that the total carbon emissions of carbon-containing magnesia bricks produced with fused magnesia are much higher than those of other products, and the total carbon emissions of both general magnesia brick and magnesia-carbon spray are lower than those of other products. Carbon emissions of magnesia productsmore » are mainly concentrated in the production process of magnesia. Manufacturers should select materials with lower environmental impacts and emphasize saving energy and reducing carbon emissions in the magnesia production process. Through scenario analysis we found that CO 2 capture is an effective measure to reduce carbon emissions compared with just improving energy consumption. However, a robust CO 2 market does not currently exist. Policy makers should plan on integrating CO 2 capture in the magnesia industry into a regional CO 2 capture and storage development planning in the long term. In particular, magnesia production is concentrated in a single geographical area which would and thus could take advantage of significant scale effects. Finally, in the use phase, extending the service lifetime reduces carbon emissions over the product lifetime, thus users should attempt to extend the service lifetime of a furnace as a whole. However, results show that it is not advisable to add a large number of repair refractories to extend the lifetime of existing furnaces.« less

Reducing energy consumption and carbon emissions of magnesia refractory products: A life-cycle perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

An, Jing; Li, Yingnan; Middleton, Richard S.

China is the largest producer of magnesia refractory materials and products in the world, resulting in significant energy consumption and carbon emissions. This paper analyzes measures to reduce both the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the production phase and use phase, providing a theoretical basis for a sustainable magnesia refractory industry. Results show that the total carbon emissions of carbon-containing magnesia bricks produced with fused magnesia are much higher than those of other products, and the total carbon emissions of both general magnesia brick and magnesia-carbon spray are lower than those of other products. Carbon emissions of magnesia productsmore » are mainly concentrated in the production process of magnesia. Manufacturers should select materials with lower environmental impacts and emphasize saving energy and reducing carbon emissions in the magnesia production process. Through scenario analysis we found that CO 2 capture is an effective measure to reduce carbon emissions compared with just improving energy consumption. However, a robust CO 2 market does not currently exist. Policy makers should plan on integrating CO 2 capture in the magnesia industry into a regional CO 2 capture and storage development planning in the long term. In particular, magnesia production is concentrated in a single geographical area which would and thus could take advantage of significant scale effects. Finally, in the use phase, extending the service lifetime reduces carbon emissions over the product lifetime, thus users should attempt to extend the service lifetime of a furnace as a whole. However, results show that it is not advisable to add a large number of repair refractories to extend the lifetime of existing furnaces.« less

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Dynamic EROI Assessment of the IPCC 21st Century Electricity Production Scenario

DOE PAGES

Neumeyer, Charles; Goldston, Robert

2016-04-28

Abstract: The Energy Return on Investment (EROI) is an important measure of the energy gain of an electrical power generating facility that is typically evaluated based on the life cycle energy balance of a single facility. The EROI concept can be extended to cover a collection of facilities that comprise a complete power system and used to assess the expansion and evolution of a power system as it transitions from one portfolio mix of technologies to another over time. In this study we develop a dynamic EROI model that simulates the evolution of a power system and we perform anmore » EROI simulation of one of the electricity production scenarios developed under the auspices of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) covering the global supply of electricity in the 21st century. Our analytic tool provides the means for evaluation of dynamic EROI based on arbitrary time-dependent demand scenarios by modeling the required expansion of power generation, including the plowback needed for new construction and to replace facilities as they are retired. The results provide insight into the level of installed and delivered power, above and beyond basic consumer demand, that is required to support construction during expansion, as well as the supplementary power that may be required if plowback constraints are imposed. In addition, sensitivity to EROI parameters, and the impact of energy storage efficiency are addressed.« less

Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for crop management system scenarios

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ is a high-end computer interface that simulates daily fertilizer application information for any gridded domain. It integrates the Weather Research and Forecasting model and CMAQ.

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral assessment of climate change impacts on operational performance of a multipurpose reservoir

Treesearch

Allison G. Danner; Mohammad Safeeq; Gordon E. Grant; Charlotte Wickham; Desirée Tullos; Mary V. Santelmann

2017-01-01

Scenario-based and scenario-neutral impacts assessment approaches provide complementary information about how climate change-driven effects on streamflow may change the operational performance of multipurpose dams. Examining a case study of Cougar Dam in Oregon, United States, we simulated current reservoir operations under scenarios of plausible future hydrology....

CO2 utilization: an enabling element to move to a resource- and energy-efficient chemical and fuel production.

PubMed

Ampelli, Claudio; Perathoner, Siglinda; Centi, Gabriele

2015-03-13

CO(2) conversion will be at the core of the future of low-carbon chemical and energy industry. This review gives a glimpse into the possibilities in this field by discussing (i) CO(2) circular economy and its impact on the chemical and energy value chain, (ii) the role of CO(2) in a future scenario of chemical industry, (iii) new routes for CO(2) utilization, including emerging biotechnology routes, (iv) the technology roadmap for CO(2) chemical utilization, (v) the introduction of renewable energy in the chemical production chain through CO(2) utilization, and (vi) CO(2) as a suitable C-source to move to a low-carbon chemical industry, discussing in particular syngas and light olefin production from CO(2). There are thus many stimulating possibilities offered by using CO(2) and this review shows this new perspective on CO(2) at the industrial, societal and scientific levels. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

R modes and neutron star recycling scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chugunov, A. I.; Gusakov, M. E.; Kantor, E. M.

2017-06-01

To put new constraints on the r-mode instability window, we analyse the formation of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) within the recycling scenario, making use of three sets of observations: (a) X-ray observations of neutron stars (NSs) in low-mass X-ray binaries; (b) timing of MSPs and (c) X-ray and UV observations of MSPs. As shown in previous works, r-mode dissipation by shear viscosity is not sufficient to explain observational set (a), and enhanced r-mode dissipation at the redshifted internal temperatures T ∞ ˜ 108 K is required to stabilize the observed NSs. Here, we argue that models with enhanced bulk viscosity can hardly lead to a self-consistent explanation of observational set (a) due to strong neutrino emission, which is typical for these models (unrealistically powerful energy source is required to keep NSs at the observed temperatures.). We also demonstrate that the observational set (b), combined with the theory of internal heating and NS cooling, provides evidence of enhanced r-mode dissipation at low temperatures, T ∞ ˜ 2 × 107 K. Observational set (c) allows us to set an upper limit on the internal temperatures of MSPs, T ∞ < 2 × 107 K (assuming a canonical NS with the accreted crust). Recycling scenario can produce MSPs at these temperatures only if r-mode instability is suppressed in the whole MSP spin frequency range (ν ≲ 750 Hz) at temperatures 2 × 107 ≲ T ∞ ≲ 3 × 107 K, providing thus a new constraint on the r-mode instability window. These observational constraints are analysed in more details in application to the resonance uplift scenario of Gusakov et al.

The increasing importance of a continence nurse specialist to improve outcomes and save costs of urinary incontinence care: an analysis of future policy scenarios.

PubMed

Franken, Margreet G; Corro Ramos, Isaac; Los, Jeanine; Al, Maiwenn J

2018-02-17

In an ageing population, it is inevitable to improve the management of care for community-dwelling elderly with incontinence. A previous study showed that implementation of the Optimum Continence Service Specification (OCSS) for urinary incontinence in community-dwelling elderly with four or more chronic diseases results in a reduction of urinary incontinence, an improved quality of life, and lower healthcare and lower societal costs. The aim of this study was to explore future consequences of the OCSS strategy of various healthcare policy scenarios in an ageing population. We adapted a previously developed decision analytical model in which the OCSS new care strategy was operationalised as the appointment of a continence nurse specialist located within the general practice in The Netherlands. We used a societal perspective including healthcare costs (healthcare providers, treatment costs, insured containment products, insured home care), and societal costs (informal caregiving, containment products paid out-of-pocket, travelling expenses, home care paid out-of-pocket). All outcomes were computed over a three-year time period using two different base years (2014 and 2030). Settings for future policy scenarios were based on desk-research and expert opinion. Our results show that implementation of the OSCC new care strategy for urinary incontinence would yield large health gains in community dwelling elderly (2030: 2592-2618 QALYs gained) and large cost-savings in The Netherlands (2030: health care perspective: €32.4 Million - €72.5 Million; societal perspective: €182.0 Million - €250.6 Million). Savings can be generated in different categories which depends on healthcare policy. The uncertainty analyses and extreme case scenarios showed the robustness of the results. Implementation of the OCSS new care strategy for urinary incontinence results in an improvement in the quality of life of community-dwelling elderly, a reduction of the costs for payers and

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Alternative Fuel Infrastructure Expansion: Costs, Resources, Production Capacity, and Retail Availability for Low-Carbon Scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melaina, W.; Heath, Garvin; Sandor, Debra

2013-04-01

The petroleum-based transportation fuel system is complex and highly developed, in contrast to the nascent low-petroleum, low-carbon alternative fuel system. This report examines how expansion of the low-carbon transportation fuel infrastructure could contribute to deep reductions in petroleum use and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions across the U.S. transportation sector. Three low-carbon scenarios, each using a different combination of low-carbon fuels, were developed to explore infrastructure expansion trends consistent with a study goal of reducing transportation sector GHG emissions to 80% less than 2005 levels by 2050.These scenarios were compared to a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and were evaluated with respect tomore » four criteria: fuel cost estimates, resource availability, fuel production capacity expansion, and retail infrastructure expansion.« less

Towards "DRONE-BORNE" Disaster Management: Future Application Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanzi, Tullio Joseph; Chandra, Madhu; Isnard, Jean; Camara, Daniel; Sebastien, Olivier; Harivelo, Fanilo

2016-06-01

Information plays a key role in crisis management and relief efforts for natural disaster scenarios. Given their flight properties, UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) provide new and interesting perspectives on the data gathering for disaster management. A new generation of UAVs may help to improve situational awareness and information assessment. Among the advantages UAVs may bring to the disaster management field, we can highlight the gain in terms of time and human resources, as they can free rescue teams from time-consuming data collection tasks and assist research operations with more insightful and precise guidance thanks to advanced sensing capabilities. However, in order to be useful, UAVs need to overcome two main challenges. The first one is to achieve a sufficient autonomy level, both in terms of navigation and interpretation of the data sensed. The second major challenge relates to the reliability of the UAV, with respect to accidental (safety) or malicious (security) risks. This paper first discusses the potential of UAV in assisting in different humanitarian relief scenarios, as well as possible issues in such situations. Based on recent experiments, we discuss the inherent advantages of autonomous flight operations, both lone flights and formation flights. The question of autonomy is then addressed and a secure embedded architecture and its specific hardware capabilities is sketched out. We finally present a typical use case based on the new detection and observation abilities that UAVs can bring to rescue teams. Although this approach still has limits that have to be addressed, technically speaking as well as operationally speaking, it seems to be a very promising one to enhance disaster management efforts activities.

On the Integration of Wind and Solar Energy to Provide a Total Energy Supply in the U.S

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liebig, E. C.; Rhoades, A.; Sloggy, M.; Mills, D.; Archer, C. L.

2009-12-01

This study examines the feasibility of using renewable energy - mostly wind and solar radiation - as the primary sources of energy in the U.S., under the assumption that a nationwide electric transmission grid is in place. Previous studies have shown that solar output from California and Texas using energy storage is well correlated with the state energy load on an hour by hour basis throughout the year and with the US national load on a monthly basis. Other studies have shown that solar or wind alone can power the present US grid on average. This study explores scenarios for use of wind and solar energy together at the national scale on an hour by hour basis to determine if such a combination is a better match to national seasonal load scenarios than either of the two alone on an hour-by-hour basis. Actual hour by hour national load data from a particular year will be used as a basis, with some scenarios incorporating vehicle sector electrification and building heating and cooling using electric heat pumps. Hydro and geothermal generation can provide additional controllable output, when needed, to fulfill the hourly electricity and/or energy needs. Hourly wind speed data were calculated at the hub height of 80 m above the ground for the year 2006 at over 150 windy locations in the continental US using an extrapolation technique based on 10-m wind speed measurements and vertical sounding profiles. Using a 1.5 MW wind turbine as benchmark, the hourly wind power production nationwide was determined at all locations. Similarly, the hourly output from solar plants, with and without thermal storage, was calculated based on Ausra’s model assuming that the solar production would occur in the Southwest, the area with the greatest solar radiation density in the U.S. Hourly electricity demand for the year 2006 was obtained nationwide from a variety of sources, including the Federal Energy Regulation Commission. Hourly residential heating and cooking, industrial heat

The principle of ‘maximum energy dissipation’: a novel thermodynamic perspective on rapid water flow in connected soil structures

PubMed Central

Zehe, Erwin; Blume, Theresa; Blöschl, Günter

2010-01-01

Preferential flow in biological soil structures is of key importance for infiltration and soil water flow at a range of scales. In the present study, we treat soil water flow as a dissipative process in an open non-equilibrium thermodynamic system, to better understand this key process. We define the chemical potential and Helmholtz free energy based on soil physical quantities, parametrize a physically based hydrological model based on field data and simulate the evolution of Helmholtz free energy in a cohesive soil with different populations of worm burrows for a range of rainfall scenarios. The simulations suggest that flow in connected worm burrows allows a more efficient redistribution of water within the soil, which implies a more efficient dissipation of free energy/higher production of entropy. There is additional evidence that the spatial pattern of worm burrow density at the hillslope scale is a major control of energy dissipation. The pattern typically found in the study is more efficient in dissipating energy/producing entropy than other patterns. This is because upslope run-off accumulates and infiltrates via the worm burrows into the dry soil in the lower part of the hillslope, which results in an overall more efficient dissipation of free energy. PMID:20368256

Exploring NASA Human Spaceflight and Pioneering Scenarios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zapata, Edgar; Wilhite, Alan

2015-01-01

The life cycle cost analysis of space exploration scenarios is explored via a merger of (1) scenario planning, separating context and (2) modeling and analysis of specific content. Numerous scenarios are presented, leading to cross-cutting recommendations addressing life cycle costs, productivity, and approaches applicable to any scenarios. Approaches address technical and non-technical factors.

Rural energy - ODA`s perspective

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Woolnough, D.

1997-12-01

The Overseas Development Administration has as a goal `to improve the quality of life of people in poorer countries by contributing to sustainable development and reducing poverty and suffering.` Rural energy fits into this goal as a means to an end. The emphasis is firmly on the service provided, with the aim being provision of basic needs as a part of rural development. ODA plays a role in this task on a number of fronts: research and development; support for NGO`s; aid in a bilateral or multilateral form. The view of ODA is that even rural energy projects must emphasizemore » the service provided and must be economically sustainable. Within its sphere of influence, there is a clearly growing position for the employment of rural energy programs.« less

MEGASTAR: The Meaning of Energy Growth: An Assessment of Systems, Technologies, and Requirements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

A methodology for the display and analysis of postulated energy futures for the United States is presented. A systems approach that includes the methodology of technology assessment is used to examine three energy scenarios--the Westinghouse Nuclear Electric Economy, the Ford Technical Fix Base Case and a MEGASTAR generated Alternate to the Ford Technical Fix Base Case. The three scenarios represent different paths of energy consumption for the present to the year 2000. Associated with these paths are various mixes of fuels, conversion, distribution, conservation and end-use technologies. MEGASTAR presents the estimated times and unit requirements to supply the fuels, conversion and distribution systems for the postulated end uses for the three scenarios and then estimates the aggregate manpower, materials, and capital requirements needed to develop the energy system described by the particular scenario. The total requirements and the energy subsystems for each scenario are assessed for their primary impacts in the areas of society, the environment, technology and the economy.

Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the conterminous US to the year 2100 as part of the Integrated Climate and Land Use Scenarios (ICLUS) project. The report was prepared by the Global Change Research Program (GCRP) in the National Center for Environmental Assessment (NCEA) of the Office of Research and Development (ORD) at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The ICLUS report describes the methods used to develop land-use scenarios by decade from the year 2000 to 2100 that are consistent with these storylines.

Energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Iran, 2025.

PubMed

Mirzaei, Maryam; Bekri, Mahmoud

2017-04-01

Climate change and global warming as the key human societies' threats are essentially associated with energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. A system dynamic model was developed in this study to model the energy consumption and CO 2 emission trends for Iran over 2000-2025. Energy policy factors are considered in analyzing the impact of different energy consumption factors on environmental quality. The simulation results show that the total energy consumption is predicted to reach 2150 by 2025, while that value in 2010 is 1910, which increased by 4.3% yearly. Accordingly, the total CO 2 emissions in 2025 will reach 985million tonnes, which shows about 5% increase yearly. Furthermore, we constructed policy scenarios based on energy intensity reduction. The analysis show that CO 2 emissions will decrease by 12.14% in 2025 compared to 2010 in the scenario of 5% energy intensity reduction, and 17.8% in the 10% energy intensity reduction scenario. The results obtained in this study provide substantial awareness regarding Irans future energy and CO 2 emission outlines. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Does Gender Matter? An Exploratory Study of Perspectives across Genders, Age and Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carinci, Sherrie; Wong, Pia Lindquist

2009-01-01

Using a convenience sample and survey research methods, the authors seek to better understand how perspectives on gender are shaped by individuals' age, level of education and gender. Study participants responded in writing to scenarios and survey questions, revealing their personal views on gender as an identity category and as a marker in the…

Comparative Analysis of Modeling Studies on China's Future Energy and Emissions Outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zheng, Nina; Zhou, Nan; Fridley, David

The past decade has seen the development of various scenarios describing long-term patterns of future Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, with each new approach adding insights to our understanding of the changing dynamics of energy consumption and aggregate future energy trends. With the recent growing focus on China's energy use and emission mitigation potential, a range of Chinese outlook models have been developed across different institutions including in China's Energy Research Institute's 2050 China Energy and CO2 Emissions Report, McKinsey & Co's China's Green Revolution report, the UK Sussex Energy Group and Tyndall Centre's China's Energy Transition report, and the China-specificmore » section of the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009. At the same time, the China Energy Group at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has developed a bottom-up, end-use energy model for China with scenario analysis of energy and emission pathways out to 2050. A robust and credible energy and emission model will play a key role in informing policymakers by assessing efficiency policy impacts and understanding the dynamics of future energy consumption and energy saving and emission reduction potential. This is especially true for developing countries such as China, where uncertainties are greater while the economy continues to undergo rapid growth and industrialization. A slightly different assumption or storyline could result in significant discrepancies among different model results. Therefore, it is necessary to understand the key models in terms of their scope, methodologies, key driver assumptions and the associated findings. A comparative analysis of LBNL's energy end-use model scenarios with the five above studies was thus conducted to examine similarities and divergences in methodologies, scenario storylines, macroeconomic drivers and assumptions as well as aggregate energy and emission scenario results. Besides directly tracing different energy and CO{sub 2} savings

Beamed energy propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shoji, James M.

1992-01-01

Beamed energy concepts offer an alternative for an advanced propulsion system. The use of a remote power source reduces the weight of the propulsion system in flight and this, combined with the high performance, provides significant payload gains. Within the context of this study's baseline scenario, two beamed energy propulsion concepts are potentially attractive: solar thermal propulsion and laser thermal propulsion. The conceived beamed energy propulsion devices generally provide low thrust (tens of pounds to hundreds of pounds); therefore, they are typically suggested for cargo transportation. For the baseline scenario, these propulsion system can provide propulsion between the following nodes: (1) low Earth orbit to geosynchronous Earth orbit; (2) low Earth orbit to low lunar orbit; (3) low lunar orbit to low Mars orbit--only solar thermal; and (4) lunar surface to low lunar orbit--only laser thermal.

Modeling of policies for reduction of GHG emissions in energy sector using ANN: case study-Croatia (EU).

PubMed

Bolanča, Tomislav; Strahovnik, Tomislav; Ukić, Šime; Stankov, Mirjana Novak; Rogošić, Marko

2017-07-01

This study describes the development of tool for testing different policies for reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in energy sector using artificial neural networks (ANNs). The case study of Croatia was elaborated. Two different energy consumption scenarios were used as a base for calculations and predictions of GHG emissions: the business as usual (BAU) scenario and sustainable scenario. Both of them are based on predicted energy consumption using different growth rates; the growth rates within the second scenario resulted from the implementation of corresponding energy efficiency measures in final energy consumption and increasing share of renewable energy sources. Both ANN architecture and training methodology were optimized to produce network that was able to successfully describe the existing data and to achieve reliable prediction of emissions in a forward time sense. The BAU scenario was found to produce continuously increasing emissions of all GHGs. The sustainable scenario was found to decrease the GHG emission levels of all gases with respect to BAU. The observed decrease was attributed to the group of measures termed the reduction of final energy consumption through energy efficiency measures.

Stakeholder engagement in scenario development process - bioenergy production and biodiversity conservation in eastern Finland.

PubMed

Haatanen, Anniina; den Herder, Michael; Leskinen, Pekka; Lindner, Marcus; Kurttila, Mikko; Salminen, Olli

2014-03-15

In this study participatory approaches were used to develop alternative forest resource management scenarios with particular respect to the effects on increased use of forest bioenergy and its effect on biodiversity in Eastern Finland. As technical planning tools, we utilized a forest management planning system (MELA) and the Tool for Sustainability Impact Assessment (ToSIA) to visualize the impacts of the scenarios. We organized a stakeholder workshop where group discussions were used as a participatory method to get the stakeholder preferences and insights concerning forest resource use in the year 2030. Feedback from the workshop was then complemented with a questionnaire. Based on the results of the workshop and a questionnaire we developed three alternative forest resource scenarios: (1) bioenergy 2030 - in which energy production is more centralized and efficient; (2) biodiversity 2030 - in which harvesting methods are more nature friendly and protected forests make up 10% of the total forest area; and (3) mixed bioenergy + biodiversity 2030 scenario - in which wood production, recreation and nature protection are assigned to the most suitable areas. The study showed that stakeholder engagement combined with the MELA and ToSIA tools can be a useful approach in scenario development. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Research on natural lighting in reading spaces of university libraries in Jinan under the perspective of energy-efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Zengzhang

2017-11-01

The natural lighting design in the reading spaces of university libraries not only influences physical and mental health of readers but also concerns the energy consumption of the libraries. The scientific and rational design of natural lighting is the key to the design of energy saving for physical environment of the reading space. The paper elaborates the present situation and existed problems of natural lighting in reading spaces of university libraries across Jinan region based on characteristics of light climate of Jinan region and concrete utilization of reading spaces in university libraries, and combining field measurement, survey, research and data analysis of reading spaces in Shandong Women’s University’s library. The paper, under the perspective of energy-efficiency, puts forward proposals to improve natural lighting in the reading spaces of university libraries from five aspects, such as adjustment of interior layout, optimization of outer windows design, employment of the reflector panel, design lighting windows on inner walls and utilization of adjustable sun shading facilities.

40 CFR 68.28 - Alternative release scenario analysis.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Alternative release scenario analysis... scenario analysis. (a) The number of scenarios. The owner or operator shall identify and analyze at least... release scenario under § 68.25; and (ii) That will reach an endpoint offsite, unless no such scenario...

Global energy, sustainability, and the conventional development paradigm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raskin, P.D.; Margolis, R.M.

1998-05-01

The conventional development paradigm assumes that the values, consumption patterns, and dynamics of the western industrial system will be progressively played out on a global scale. In this inquiry, the authors explore the implications of the conventional paradigm for the evolution of global energy patterns, and the compatibility with notions of sustainability. They present a global long-range conventional development scenario to the year 2050, and identify major environmental, resource, and social pressures and uncertainties. These include the economic and geopolitical consequences of fossil fuel depletion, the environmental and security implications of increased nuclear generation, the risk of significant climatic change,more » and the threats to social cohesion of distributional inequities. Such potential problems could negate the basic scenario assumption of steady economic and social development. By clarifying the stress points in a conventional picture of energy development, the scenario provides a useful point of departure for examining alternative long-range scenarios for sustainable energy development.« less

Very high-energy gamma-ray signature of ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray acceleration in Centaurus A

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Jagdish C.; Miranda, Luis Salvador; Razzaque, Soebur; Yang, Lili

2018-04-01

The association of at least a dozen ultrahigh-energy cosmic-ray (UHECR) events with energy ≳ 55 EeV detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO) from the direction of Centaurus-A, the nearest radio galaxy, supports the scenario of UHECR acceleration in the jets of radio galaxies. In this work, we model radio to very high energy (VHE,≳ 100 GeV) γ-ray emission from Cen A, including GeV hardness detected by Fermi-LAT and TeV emission detected by HESS. We consider two scenarios: (i) Two zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) and external-Compton (EC) models, (ii) Two zone SSC, EC and photo-hadronic emission from cosmic ray interactions. The GeV hardness observed by Fermi-LAT can be explained using these two scenarios, where zone 2 EC emission is very important. Hadronic emission in scenario (ii) can explain VHE data with the same spectral slope as obtained through fitting UHECRs from Cen A. The peak luminosity in cosmic ray proton at 1 TeV, to explain the VHE γ-ray data is ≈2.5 × 1046 erg/s. The bolometric luminosity in cosmic ray protons is consistent with the luminosity required to explain the origin of 13 UHECR signal events that are correlated with Cen A.

Future nutrient load scenarios for the Baltic Sea due to climate and lifestyle changes.

PubMed

Hägg, Hanna Eriksson; Lyon, Steve W; Wällstedt, Teresia; Mörth, Carl-Magnus; Claremar, Björn; Humborg, Christoph

2014-04-01

Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

Coordinated scenarios for a transdisciplinary assessment of the scientific understanding of Arctic environmental change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ammann, C. M.; Holland, M. M.

2016-12-01

The Arctic is undergoing an exceptionally rapid transformation. Trying to predict or project the consequences of this change is pushing nearly every discipline in the physical, biogeochemical and social sciences towards the limits of their current understanding. Adequate data is missing to test and validate models for capturing a state of the Arctic system that we have not observed. But even more challenging is the systems-level evaluation, where impacts can quickly lead to unexpected outcomes with cascading repercussions throughout the different components and subcomponents of the environment. One approach to test our understanding, and to expose gaps in current observation strategies, modeling approaches as well as planning tools (e.g., forecast workflows, or decision frameworks) is to carefully design a small number of coordinated scenarios of plausible future states of the system, and then to study their diverse, potential impacts. A coordination of the scenarios is essential so that all disciplinary perspectives can be arranged around a common state, assumptions can be aligned, and a transdisciplinary conversation can be advanced from a common platform to form a comprehensive assessment of our knowledge. This presentation is a call to the community to join and assist the SEARCH program in designing effective scenarios that can be used for cross-cutting investigation of current limitations in our scientific understanding of how the Arctic environment might change, and what consequences these changes might bring to the physical, biological and social environments.

Impact of energy prices on agricultural and energy markets: an integrated modeling approach

EPA Science Inventory

The accelerated growth in biofuels markets has both created and reinforced linkages between agricultural and energy markets. This study investigates the dynamics in biofuel and agricultural markets under alternative price scenarios for both crude oil and natural gas. Two energy ...

Renewable energy.

PubMed

Destouni, Georgia; Frank, Harry

2010-01-01

The Energy Committee of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has in a series of projects gathered information and knowledge on renewable energy from various sources, both within and outside the academic world. In this article, we synthesize and summarize some of the main points on renewable energy from the various Energy Committee projects and the Committee's Energy 2050 symposium, regarding energy from water and wind, bioenergy, and solar energy. We further summarize the Energy Committee's scenario estimates of future renewable energy contributions to the global energy system, and other presentations given at the Energy 2050 symposium. In general, international coordination and investment in energy research and development is crucial to enable future reliance on renewable energy sources with minimal fossil fuel use.

Inflation scenario driven by a low energy physics inflaton

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, J. G.; Pires, C. A. de S.; Rodrigues, J. G.; Rodrigues da Silva, P. S.

2017-11-01

It is a longstanding desire of cosmologists, and particle physicists as well, to connect inflation to low energy physics, culminating, for instance, in what is known as Higgs inflation. The condition for the standard Higgs boson playing the role of the inflaton, and driving sucessfully inflation, is that it couples nonminimally with gravity. Nevertheless, cosmological constraints impose that the nonminimal coupling be large. This causes the loss of perturbative unitarity in a scale of energy far below the Planck one. Our aim in this work is to point out that inflaton potential containing a particular type of trilinear coupling involving the inflaton may circumvent this problem by realizing Higgs inflation with tiny nonminimal coupling of the inflaton with gravity. We then develop the idea within a toy model and implement it in the inverse type-II seesaw mechanism for small neutrinos masses.

Energy Conservation in Dissipative Processes: Teacher Expectations and Strategies Associated with Imperceptible Thermal Energy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Daane, Abigail R.; McKagan, Sarah B.; Vokos, Stamatis; Scherr, Rachel E.

2015-01-01

Research has demonstrated that many students and some teachers do not consistently apply the conservation of energy principle when analyzing mechanical scenarios. In observing elementary and secondary teachers engaged in learning activities that require tracking and conserving energy, we find that challenges to energy conservation often arise in…

CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

DOE PAGES

Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.; ...

2016-02-18

We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

CP violation in heavy MSSM Higgs scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carena, M.; Ellis, J.; Lee, J. S.

We introduce and explore new heavy Higgs scenarios in the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM) with explicit CP violation, which have important phenomenological implications that may be testable at the LHC. For soft supersymmetry-breaking scales M S above a few TeV and a charged Higgs boson mass M H+ above a few hundred GeV, new physics effects including those from explicit CP violation decouple from the light Higgs boson sector. However, such effects can significantly alter the phenomenology of the heavy Higgs bosons while still being consistent with constraints from low-energy observables, for instance electric dipole moments. To consider scenariosmore » with a charged Higgs boson much heavier than the Standard Model (SM) particles but much lighter than the supersymmetric particles, we revisit previous calculations of the MSSM Higgs sector. We compute the Higgs boson masses in the presence of CP violating phases, implementing improved matching and renormalization-group (RG) effects, as well as two-loop RG effects from the effective two-Higgs Doublet Model (2HDM) scale M H± to the scale M S. Here, we illustrate the possibility of non-decoupling CP-violating effects in the heavy Higgs sector using new benchmark scenarios named.« less

Energy cost of vessel disturbance to Kittlitz's Murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris

USGS Publications Warehouse

Agness, Alison M.; Marshall, Kristin N.; Piatt, John F.; Ha, James C.; VanBlaricom, Glenn R.

2013-01-01

We evaluated the energy cost of vessel disturbance for individual Kittlitz’s Murrelets Brachyramphus brevirostris in Glacier Bay National Park and Preserve in Alaska, USA. We used Monte Carlo simulations to model the daily energy expense associated with flight from vessels by both breeding and non-breeding birds and evaluated risk based on both the magnitude of costs incurred and the degree to which the costs may be chronic. We used two scenarios of vessel disturbance for average- and peak-vessel traffic. Because they are more likely to fly away from vessels, non-breeding birds had a greater increase in energy expenditure when disturbed (up to 30% increase under the average scenario and >50% increase under the peak scenario) than breeders (up to 10% and 30% increases under the average and peak scenarios, respectively). Likewise, non-breeding birds were more likely to experience chronic increases in energy expense (i.e. a greater percentage of days with an increase in energy expenditure) than breeding birds. Our modeling results indicated that breeding and non-breeding birds were both susceptible to fitness consequences (e.g. reduced reproductive success and survival) resulting from the energy cost.

Journal Article: Using Scientists and Real-World Scenarios in Professional Development for Middle School Science Teachers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morrison, Judith A.; Estes, Jeffrey C.

Middle school science teachers were involved in a problem-solving experience presented and guided by research scientists. Data on the teachers’ perspectives about this professional development and any impact it may have had on their teaching practices were collected through interviews, surveys, and classroom observations. The findings show that the professional development experience was positive, although one concern expressed by teachers was their lack of understanding of the scientists’ vocabulary. Using scientists and real-world scenarios was shown to be an effective strategy for encouraging middle school teachers to teach science as a process and help them strengthen their science content understanding.

Hawaii energy strategy report, October 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This is a report on the Hawaii Energy Strategy Program. The topics of the report include the a description of the program including an overview, objectives, policy statement and purpose and objectives; energy strategy policy development; energy strategy projects; current energy situation; modeling Hawaii`s energy future; energy forecasts; reducing energy demand; scenario assessment, and recommendations.

Medical Scenarios Relevant to Spaceflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bacal, Kira; Hurs, Victor; Doerr, Harold

2004-01-01

The Medical Operational Support Team (MOST) was tasked by the JSC Space Medicine and Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) to incorporate medical simulation into 1) medical training for astronaut-crew medical officers (CMO) and medical flight control teams and 2) evaluations of procedures and resources required for medical care aboard the International Space Station (ISS). Development of evidence-based medical scenarios that mimic the physiology observed during spaceflight will be needed for the MOST to complete these two tasks. The MOST used a human patient simulator, the ISS-like resources in the Medical Simulation Laboratory (MSL), and evidence from space operations, military operations and medical literature to develop space relevant medical scenarios. These scenarios include conditions concerning airway management, Advanced Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and mitigating anaphylactic symptoms. The MOST has used these space relevant medical scenarios to develop a preliminary space medical training regimen for NASA flight surgeons, Biomedical Flight Controllers (Biomedical Engineers; BME) and CMO-analogs. This regimen is conducted by the MOST in the MSL. The MOST has the capability to develop evidence-based space-relevant medical scenarios that can help SLSD I) demonstrate the proficiency of medical flight control teams to mitigate space-relevant medical events and 2) validate nextgeneration medical equipment and procedures for space medicine applications.

Futures Scenario in Science Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lloyd, David; Vanderhout, Annastasia; Lloyd, Lisa; Atkins, David

2010-01-01

In this article we describe our experiences in developing futures scenarios in two science contexts, space science and atmospheric science/climate change. Futures scenario writing can develop scientific literacy by connecting science learning to students' lifeworlds--past, present and future. They also provide a synthesising mechanism for…

Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parson, E. A.

2008-10-01

Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

Projecting High Beta Steady-State Scenarios from DIII-D Advanced Tokamk Discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Park, J. M.

2013-10-01

Fusion power plant studies based on steady-state tokamak operation suggest that normalized beta in the range of 4-6 is needed for economic viability. DIII-D is exploring a range of candidate high beta scenarios guided by FASTRAN modeling in a repeated cycle of experiment and modeling validation. FASTRAN is a new iterative numerical procedure coupled to the Integrated Plasma Simulator (IPS) that integrates models of core transport, heating and current drive, equilibrium and stability self-consistently to find steady state (d / dt = 0) solutions, and reproduces most features of DIII-D high beta discharges with a stationary current profile. Separately, modeling components such as core transport (TGLF) and off-axis neutral beam current drive (NUBEAM) show reasonable agreement with experiment. Projecting forward to scenarios possible on DIII-D with future upgrades, two self-consistent noninductive scenarios at βN > 4 are found: high qmin and high internal inductance li. Both have bootstrap current fraction fBS > 0 . 5 and rely on the planned addition of a second off-axis neutral beamline and increased electron cyclotron heating. The high qmin > 2 scenario achieves stable operation at βN as high as 5 by a very broad current density profile to improve the ideal-wall stabilization of low-n instabilities along with confinement enhancement from low magnetic shear. The li near 1 scenario does not depend on ideal-wall stabilization. Improved confinement from strong magnetic shear makes up for the lower pedestal needed to maintain li high. The tradeoff between increasing li and reduced edge pedestal determines the achievable βN (near 4) and fBS (near 0.5). This modeling identifies the necessary upgrades to achieve target scenarios and clarifies the pros and cons of particular scenarios to better inform the development of steady-state fusion. Supported by the US Department of Energy under DE-AC05-00OR22725 & DE-FC02-04ER54698.

Inventories and scenarios of nitrous oxide emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davidson, Eric A.; Kanter, David

2014-10-01

Effective mitigation for N2O emissions, now the third most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas and the largest remaining anthropogenic source of stratospheric ozone depleting substances, requires understanding of the sources and how they may increase this century. Here we update estimates and their uncertainties for current anthropogenic and natural N2O emissions and for emissions scenarios to 2050. Although major uncertainties remain, ‘bottom-up’ inventories and ‘top-down’ atmospheric modeling yield estimates that are in broad agreement. Global natural N2O emissions are most likely between 10 and 12 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Net anthropogenic N2O emissions are now about 5.3 Tg N2O-N yr-1. Gross anthropogenic emissions by sector are 66% from agriculture, 15% from energy and transport sectors, 11% from biomass burning, and 8% from other sources. A decrease in natural emissions from tropical soils due to deforestation reduces gross anthropogenic emissions by about 14%. Business-as-usual emission scenarios project almost a doubling of anthropogenic N2O emissions by 2050. In contrast, concerted mitigation scenarios project an average decline of 22% relative to 2005, which would lead to a near stabilization of atmospheric concentration of N2O at about 350 ppb. The impact of growing demand for biofuels on future projections of N2O emissions is highly uncertain; N2O emissions from second and third generation biofuels could remain trivial or could become the most significant source to date. It will not be possible to completely eliminate anthropogenic N2O emissions from agriculture, but better matching of crop N needs and N supply offers significant opportunities for emission reductions.

‘Energy landscapes’: Meeting energy demands and human aspirations

PubMed Central

Blaschke, Thomas; Biberacher, Markus; Gadocha, Sabine; Schardinger, Ingrid

2013-01-01

Renewable energy will play a crucial role in the future society of the 21st century. The various renewable energy sources need to be balanced and their use carefully planned since they are characterized by high temporal and spatial variability that will pose challenges to maintaining a well balanced supply and to the stability of the grid. This article examines the ways that future ‘energy landscapes’ can be modelled in time and space. Biomass needs a great deal of space per unit of energy produced but it is an energy carrier that may be strategically useful in circumstances where other renewable energy carriers are likely to deliver less. A critical question considered in this article is whether a massive expansion in the use of biomass will allow us to construct future scenarios while repositioning the ‘energy landscape’ as an object of study. A second important issue is the utilization of heat from biomass energy plants. Biomass energy also has a larger spatial footprint than other carriers such as, for example, solar energy. This article seeks to provide a bridge between energy modelling and spatial planning while integrating research and techniques in energy modelling with Geographic Information Science. This encompasses GIS, remote sensing, spatial disaggregation techniques and geovisualization. Several case studies in Austria and Germany demonstrate a top-down methodology and some results while stepwise calculating potentials from theoretical to technically feasible potentials and setting the scene for the definition of economic potentials based on scenarios and assumptions. PMID:26109751

Modelling regional climate change and urban planning scenarios and their impacts on the urban environment in two cities with WRF-ACASA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Falk, M.; Pyles, R. D.; Marras, S.; Spano, D.; Paw U, K. T.

2011-12-01

The number of urban metabolism studies has increased in recent years, due to the important impact that energy, water and carbon exchange over urban areas have on climate change. Urban modeling is therefore crucial in the future design and management of cities. This study presents the ACASA model coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) mesoscale model to simulate urban fluxes at a horizontal resolution of 200 meters for urban areas of roughly 100 km^2. As part of the European Project "BRIDGE", these regional simulations were used in combination with remotely sensed data to provide constraints on the land surface types and the exchange of carbon and energy fluxes from urban centers. Surface-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy were simulated using the Advanced Canopy Atmosphere Soil Algorithm (ACASA). ACASA is a multi-layer high-order closure model, recently modified to work over natural, agricultural as well as urban environments. In particular, improvements were made to account for the anthropogenic contribution to heat and carbon production. For two cities four climate change and four urban planning scenarios were simulated: The climate change scenarios include a base scenario (Sc0: 2008 Commit in IPCC), a medium emission scenario (Sc1: IPCC A2), a worst case emission scenario (Sce2: IPCC A1F1) and finally a best case emission scenario (Sce3: IPCC B1). The urban planning scenarios include different development scenarios such as smart growth. The two cities are a high latitude city, Helsinki (Finland) and an historic city, Florence (Italy). Helsinki is characterized by recent, rapid urbanization that requires a substantial amount of energy for heating, while Florence is representative of cities in lower latitudes, with substantial cultural heritage and a comparatively constant architectural footprint over time. In general, simulated fluxes matched the point observations well and showed consistent improvement in the energy partitioning over

Measuring the distribution of equity in terms of energy, environmental, and economic costs in the fuel cycles of alternative fuel vehicles with hydrogen pathway scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meyer, Patrick E.

moderately inequitable. However, the distribution of energy and environmental costs in a population in which some drivers use CGVs and other drivers use solar-electrolysis-based FCVs can be extremely inequitable. Further, it is found that the method of production and delivery of hydrogen (i.e. centralized production or refueling station-based production) can have an impact on the equity of energy and environmental costs. The implications of these results are interesting, in that wealthy people purchase FCVs that have high upfront costs and very low societal energy and environmental costs. Simultaneously, however, low-income people purchase CGVs that have low upfront costs and very high societal energy and environmental costs. In this situation, due to the high-polluting nature of CGV technology in relation to FCV technology, CGV drivers account for more than their equitable share of energy and environmental costs. Scenarios are conducted which explore modifications of assumptions, such as the price of oil, price of natural gas, cost to offset emissions, consumer purchase price of FCVs, and the level of taxation on the cost streams. Among other findings, it is found that altering the purchase price of an FCV has the greatest impact on social equity whereas altering the cost to offset fuel-cycle emissions has the least impact, indicating that policy mechanisms aimed at incentivizing FCVs may have a more positive impact on social equity than policies aimed at mitigating emissions. Based on the results of the scenario analysis, policy recommendations are formulated which seek to maximize social equity in populations in which not all drivers use the same vehicular technology. The policies, if implemented as a single portfolio, would assist a systematic deviation away from the fossil fuel energy economy while ensuring that social equity is preserved to the greatest degree possible. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

Late decaying 2-component dark matter scenario as an explanation of the AMS-02 positron excess

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Buch, Jatan; Ralegankar, Pranjal; Rentala, Vikram, E-mail: jatan_buch@brown.edu, E-mail: pranjal6@illinois.edu, E-mail: rentala@phy.iitb.ac.in

The long standing anomaly in the positron flux as measured by the PAMELA and AMS-02 experiments could potentially be explained by dark matter (DM) annihilations. This scenario typically requires a large 'boost factor' to be consistent with a thermal relic dark matter candidate produced via freeze-out. However, such an explanation is disfavored by constraints from CMB observations on energy deposition during the epoch of recombination. We discuss a scenario called late-decaying two-component dark matter (LD2DM), where the entire DM consists of two semi-degenerate species. Within this framework, the heavier species is produced as a thermal relic in the early universemore » and decays to the lighter species over cosmological timescales. Consequently, the lighter species becomes the DM which populates the universe today. We show that annihilation of the lighter DM species with an enhanced cross-section, produced via such a non-thermal mechanism, can explain the observed AMS-02 positron flux while avoiding CMB constraints. The observed DM relic density can be correctly reproduced as well with simple s -wave annihilation cross-sections. We demonstrate that the scenario is safe from CMB constraints on late-time energy depositions during the cosmic 'dark ages'. Interestingly, structure formation constraints force us to consider small mass splittings between the two dark matter species. We explore possible cosmological and particle physics signatures in a toy model that realizes this scenario.« less

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Synthetic wind speed scenarios generation for probabilistic analysis of hybrid energy systems

DOE PAGES

Chen, Jun; Rabiti, Cristian

2016-11-25

Hybrid energy systems consisting of multiple energy inputs and multiple energy outputs have been proposed to be an effective element to enable ever increasing penetration of clean energy. In order to better understand the dynamic and probabilistic behavior of hybrid energy systems, this paper proposes a model combining Fourier series and autoregressive moving average (ARMA) to characterize historical weather measurements and to generate synthetic weather (e.g., wind speed) data. In particular, Fourier series is used to characterize the seasonal trend in historical data, while ARMA is applied to capture the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements minus seasonal trends).more » The generated synthetic wind speed data is then utilized to perform probabilistic analysis of a particular hybrid energy system con guration, which consists of nuclear power plant, wind farm, battery storage, natural gas boiler, and chemical plant. As a result, requirements on component ramping rate, economic and environmental impacts of hybrid energy systems, and the effects of deploying different sizes of batteries in smoothing renewable variability, are all investigated.« less

Energy Models and the Policy Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Man, Reinier

1983-01-01

Describes the function of econometric and technological models in the policy process, and shows how different positions in the Dutch energy discussion are reflected by the application of different model methodologies. Discussion includes the energy policy context, a conceptual framework for using energy models, and energy scenarios in policy…

Energy models and national energy policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloyd, Cary N.; Streets, David G.; Fisher, Ronald E.

1990-01-01

As work begins on the development of a new National Energy Strategy (NES), the role of energy models is becoming increasingly important. Such models are needed to determine and assess both the short and long term effects of new policy initiatives on U.S. energy supply and demand. A central purpose of the model is to translate overall energy strategy goals into policy options while identifying potential costs and environmental benefits. Three models currently being utilized in the NES process are described, followed by a detailed listing of the publicly identified NES goals. These goals are then viewed in light of the basic modeling scenarios that were proposed as part of the NES development process.

Potential assessment of establishing a renewable energy plant in a rural agricultural area.

PubMed

Su, Ming-Chien; Kao, Nien-Hsin; Huang, Wen-Jar

2012-06-01

An evaluation of the green energy potential generated from biogas and solar power, using agricultural manure waste and a photovoltaic (PV) system, was conducted in a large geographical area of a rural county with low population density and low pollution. The studied area, Shoufeng Township in Hualien County, is located in eastern Taiwan, where a large amount of manure waste is generated from pig farms that are scattered throughout the county. The objective of the study is to assess the possibility of establishing an integrated manure waste treatment plant by using the generated biogas incorporated with the PV system to produce renewable energy and then feed it back to the incorporated farms. A filed investigation, geographic information system (GIS) application, empirical equations development, and RETScreen modeling were conducted in the study. The results indicate that Shoufeng Township has the highest priority in setting up an integrated treatment and renewable energy plant by using GIS mapping within a 10-km radius of the transportation range. Two scenarios were plotted in assessing the renewable energy plant and the estimated electricity generation, plus the greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction was evaluated. Under the current governmental green energy scheme and from a long-term perspective, the assessment shows great potential in establishing the plant, especially in reducing environmental pollution problems, waste treatment, and developing suitable renewable energy.

A scenario for inflationary magnetogenesis without strong coupling problem

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)