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Sample records for england complex systems

  1. International Instructional Systems: How England Measures Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creese, Brian; Isaacs, Tina

    2016-01-01

    Although England was not included in the International Instructional Systems Study because it was not a high-performing jurisdiction by the Study's definition, contributors largely were England-based. Analysing the Study's nine overall aspects of instructional systems, this paper finds that England is out of step with many of the high-performing…

  2. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  3. United Kingdom (England): Health system review.

    PubMed

    Boyle, Seán

    2011-01-01

    The Health Systems in Transition (HiT) profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services and the role of the main actors in health systems; describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis. Various indicators show that the health of the population has improved over the last few decades. However, inequalities in health across socioeconomic groups have been increasing since the 1970s. The main diseases affecting the population are circulatory diseases, cancer, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. Risk factors such as the steadily rising levels of alcohol consumption, the sharp increases in adult and child obesity and prevailing smoking levels are among the most pressing public health concerns, particularly as they reflect the growing health inequalities among different socioeconomic groups. Health services in England are largely free at the point of use. The NHS provides preventive medicine, primary care and hospital services to all those ordinarily resident. Over 12% of the population is covered by voluntary health insurance schemes, known in the United Kingdom as private medical insurance (PMI), which mainly provides access to acute elective care in the private sector. Responsibility for publicly funded health care rests with the Secretary of State for Health, supported by the Department of Health. The Department operates at a regional level through 10 strategic health authorities (SHAs), which are responsible for ensuring the quality and performance of local health services within their geographic area. Responsibility for commissioning health services at the local level lies with 151 primary care

  4. Value-Added Measures for Schools in England: Looking inside the "Black Box" of Complex Metrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony; Downey, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Value-added measures can be used to allocate funding to schools, to identify those institutions in need of special attention and to underpin government guidance on targets. In England, there has been a tendency to include in these measures an ever-greater number of contextualising variables and to develop ever-more complex models that encourage…

  5. Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Goldberger, Ary L.

    2006-01-01

    Physiologic systems in health and disease display an extraordinary range of temporal behaviors and structural patterns that defy understanding based on linear constructs, reductionist strategies, and classical homeostasis. Application of concepts and computational tools derived from the contemporary study of complex systems, including nonlinear dynamics, fractals and “chaos theory,” is having an increasing impact on biology and medicine. This presentation provides a brief overview of an emerging area of biomedical research, including recent applications to cardiopulmonary medicine and chronic obstructive lung disease. PMID:16921107

  6. How a universal health system reduces inequalities: lessons from England

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Shehzad; Doran, Tim; Ferguson, Brian; Fleetcroft, Robert; Goddard, Maria; Goldblatt, Peter; Laudicella, Mauro; Raine, Rosalind; Cookson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background Provision of universal coverage is essential for achieving equity in healthcare, but inequalities still exist in universal healthcare systems. Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, the National Health Service (NHS) in England, which has provided universal coverage since 1948, made sustained efforts to reduce health inequalities by strengthening primary care. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of trends in socioeconomic inequalities of primary care access, quality and outcomes during this period. Methods Whole-population small area longitudinal study based on 32 482 neighbourhoods of approximately 1500 people in England from 2004/2005 to 2011/2012. We measured slope indices of inequality in four indicators: (1) patients per family doctor, (2) primary care quality, (3) preventable emergency hospital admissions and (4) mortality from conditions considered amenable to healthcare. Results Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, there were larger absolute improvements on all indicators in more-deprived neighbourhoods. The modelled gap between the most-deprived and least-deprived neighbourhoods in England decreased by: 193 patients per family doctor (95% CI 173 to 213), 3.29 percentage points of primary care quality (3.13 to 3.45), 0.42 preventable hospitalisations per 1000 people (0.29 to 0.55) and 0.23 amenable deaths per 1000 people (0.15 to 0.31). By 2011/2012, inequalities in primary care supply and quality were almost eliminated, but socioeconomic inequality was still associated with 158 396 preventable hospitalisations and 37 983 deaths amenable to healthcare. Conclusions Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, the NHS succeeded in substantially reducing socioeconomic inequalities in primary care access and quality, but made only modest reductions in healthcare outcome inequalities. PMID:26787198

  7. The Evolution of the Modern Vocational Training System in England and Germany: A Comparative View.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deissenger, Thomas

    1994-01-01

    Maintains that although Germany and England's vocational training systems both grew out of the Industrial Revolution, social and economic characteristics resulted in significantly different systems. England chose a more market driven approach while Germany relied on the authority of the central government. (MJP)

  8. Racialised Norms in Apprenticeship Systems in England and Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadderton, Charlotte; Wischmann, Anke

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the issue of the under-representation of young people from minority ethnic/migrant backgrounds in apprenticeships in England and Germany. Whilst there are many studies on apprenticeships in England and Germany, few focus on under-representation or discrimination, even fewer on ethnic under-representation, and there are…

  9. Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Roger; Berridge, Damon

    2008-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and "A"-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we…

  10. Complexity in the new NHS: longitudinal case studies of CCGs in England

    PubMed Central

    Checkland, Katherine; Coleman, Anna; Perkins, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Objective The reform in the English National Health Services (NHS) under the Health and Social Care Act 2012 is unlike previous NHS reorganisations. The establishment of clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) was intended to be ‘bottom up’ with no central blueprint. This paper sets out to offer evidence about how this process has played out in practice and examines the implications of the complexity and variation which emerged. Design Detailed case studies in CCGs across England, using interviews, observation and documentary analysis. Using realist framework, we unpacked the complexity of CCG structures. Setting/participants In phase 1 of the study (January 2011 to September 2012), we conducted 96 interviews, 439 h of observation in a wide variety of meetings, 2 online surveys and 38 follow-up telephone interviews. In phase 2 (April 2013 to March 2015), we conducted 42 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and managers and observation of 48 different types of meetings. Results Our study has highlighted the complexity inherent in CCGs, arising out of the relatively permissive environment in which they developed. Not only are they very different from one another in size, but also in structure, functions between different bodies and the roles played by GPs. Conclusions The complexity and lack of uniformity of CCGs is important as it makes it difficult for those who must engage with CCGs to know who to approach at what level. This is of increasing importance as CCGs are moving towards greater integration across health and social care. Our study also suggests that there is little consensus as to what being a ‘membership’ organisation means and how it should operate. The lack of uniformity in CCG structure and lack of clarity over the meaning of ‘membership’ raises questions over accountability, which becomes of greater importance as CCG is taking over responsibility for primary care co-commissioning. PMID:26743708

  11. Mapping stakeholders for system evaluation - the case of the Electronic Prescription Service in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, V; Petrakaki, D; Hibberd, R; Venters, W; Cornford, A; Barber, N

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the process of identifying stakeholders for the evaluation of health information systems through a map. Defining the multiplicity of stakeholders associated with a new system as well as the nature of their relationships is an important aspect of evaluating any intervention. We report a study of the Electronic Prescription Service (EPS) in primary care in England. We describe the complexity associated with the process of identifying stakeholders and illustrating their dynamic relationships. Reflecting upon our experience of map-making and map-using, we discuss the role of a stakeholder map to generate and communicate knowledge. The EPS stakeholder map - in its variety of possible alternative representations - reveals the complexity of the electronic prescribing scenario and the challenge of its evaluation. Recognising the drawbacks of a static two dimensional representation, we argue that a dynamic use of a stakeholder map and a reflective map-making practice is useful and important for the evaluation of IT programmes in healthcare. PMID:20841878

  12. Privatization and Sponsorship: The Re-Agenting of the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatcher, Richard

    2006-01-01

    In this article I use the concept of "re-agenting" to explore and explain the role of non-state agencies, principally private companies and business entrepreneurs, as key instruments in the government's transformation of the school system in England. Their role takes both for-profit and not-for-profit forms. The outsourcing to private companies of…

  13. Rising to the Literacy Challenge: Building Adult Education Systems in New England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebowitz, Marty; Robins, Amy; Rubin, Jerry

    This document describes a research study of the status of basic adult literacy services in New England, particularly the inadequate link between adult basic education (ABE) and work- force preparation programs. The report describes a system that has failed to adapt to the region's increased need for articulation among English as a Second Language…

  14. Towards a Universal Upper Secondary Education System in England: A Unified and Ecosystem Vision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgson, Ann; Spours, Ken

    2012-01-01

    In their joint Inaugural Professorial Lecture, Hodgson and Spours argue for a universal upper secondary education system in England. Seeing the education of 14-19 year olds in this way brings considerable demands and requires a new form of critical analysis. At present English upper secondary education remains divided and a truncated experience…

  15. Complexation of Optoelectronic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreisho, A. S.; Il‧in, M. Yu.; Konyaev, M. A.; Mikhailenko, A. S.; Morozov, A. V.; Strakhov, S. Yu.

    2016-06-01

    Problems of increasing the efficiency and the functionality of complex optoelectronic systems for monitoring real atmospheric conditions and of their use are discussed. It is shown by the example of a meteorological complex comprising an infrared wind-sensing lidar and an X-range Doppler radar that the complexation of probing systems working in different electromagnetic-radiation ranges opens up new opportunities for determining the meteorological parameters of a turbulent atmosphere and investigating the interaction of radiation with it.

  16. The Complex Determinants of School Intake Characteristics and Segregation, England 1989 to 2014

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The extent of between-school segregation, or clustering of disadvantaged students within schools, in England varies depending on the indicator of interest. For example, the trend over time for segregation by student poverty differs from those for ethnicity or special educational need. Additionally the causes of the level of segregation for any…

  17. The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

    2006-01-01

    Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

  18. Controllability of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slotine, Jean-Jacques

    2013-03-01

    We review recent work on controllability of complex systems. We also discuss the interplay of our results with questions of synchronization, and point out key directions of future research. Work done in collaboration with Yang-Yu Liu, Center for Complex Network Research and Departments of Physics, Computer Science and Biology, Northeastern University and Center for Cancer Systems Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; and Albert-László Barabási, Center for Complex Network Research and Departments of Physics, Computer Science and Biology, Northeastern University; Center for Cancer Systems Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; and Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School.

  19. COMPLEXITY IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The enormous complexity of ecosystems is generally obvious under even the most cursory examination. In the modern world, this complexity is further augmented by the linkage of ecosystems to economic and social systems through the human use of the environment for technological pu...

  20. Product Diversity and Spectrum of Choice in Hospital ePrescribing Systems in England

    PubMed Central

    Mozaffar, Hajar; Williams, Robin; Cresswell, Kathrin; Morison, Zoe; Slee, Ann; Team, Aziz Sheikh; Coleman, Jamie; Bates, David W.; Robertson, Ann; Avery, Tony; Blake, Laurence; Chuter, Antony; Slight, Sarah P.; Girling, Alan; Lee, Lisa; Lilford, Richard; McCloughan, Lucy; Schofield, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Background ePrescribing systems have considerable potential for improving healthcare quality and safety. With growing expectations about the benefits of such systems, there is evidence of widespread plans to implement these systems in hospitals in England where hitherto they have had a low uptake. Given the international drive away from developing home-grown to systems to procuring commercial applications, we aimed to identify available ePrescribing systems in England and to use the findings to develop a taxonomy of the systems offered by suppliers. Methods and Findings We undertook a scoping review of the published and grey literature, and conducted expert interviews with vendors, healthcare organisations and national ePrescribing experts in order to identify the spectrum of available systems, identify and map their key features, and then iteratively develop and validate a taxonomy of commercial ePrescribing systems available to English hospitals. There is a wide range of available systems including 13 hospital-wide applications and a range of specialty systems. These commercial applications can be grouped into four sub-categories: standalone systems, modules within integrated systems, functionalities spread over several modules, and specialty systems. The findings also reveal that apart from four packaged applications (two of which are specialty systems), all other systems have none or less than two live implementations across England. Conclusions The wide range of products developed in the last few years by different national and international suppliers, and the low uptake of these products by English hospitals indicate that the English ePrescribing market is still in its infancy. This market is undergoing rapid cycles of change, both with respect to the number of suppliers and their diversity of offerings. Constant renewal of knowledge is needed on the status of this evolving market, encompassing the products development and adoption, to assist implementation

  1. Towards a Totalitarian Education System in England: Looking at the Academy Question in a Longer Policy Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newsam, Peter

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the author writes that England is now well on the way to having the most totalitarian as well as one of the most inefficiently managed schools system in Europe. He states that in the much maligned 1960s, people came from all over the world to learn from what was being achieved in the best of England's publicly-funded,…

  2. A comparison of substance dependence treatment information system in America, England, and Iran

    PubMed Central

    Ajami, Sima; Mellat-Karkevandi, Zahra; Saghaeiannejad-Isfahani, Sakineh; Salehi, Mehrdad; Jahanbakhsh, Maryam

    2014-01-01

    Context: Addiction, as a social problem, is a phenomenon that causes structural changes in cultural, social, political, and economic system in society. Prevention of this problem means decrease of risk factors and increase of protective factors; and recognition of these factors is possible with the help of update, accurate, and complete information in information systems. Aims: The aim of this study was to compare substance dependence treatment information system (SDTIS) in America, England, and Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was an applied and comparison-descriptive study, in which SDTIS was compared in America, England, and Iran. These countries were chosen based on available information on the Internet and also on the development of these countries in the health information management field. Information resources included library resources, electronic resources, and expert people (Health Information Management, Medical Records Education, Psychologist, Psychiatrist, and Medical Informatics). The data collection tool was the data raw form, whose reliability was proved by expert people. Statistical Analysis Used: Findings were analyzed by theory and descriptive method. Results: America and England had the SDTIS. Their systems had special characteristics such as goals, scope, special method for collecting, processing, reporting, quality and validity control, and confidentiality principles. However, there was no such system in Iran and the present situation in Iran has many differences with similar situations in the studied countries. Conclusion: Presence of an information system in the substance dependence treatment field helps to prevent, control, and treat addicted people. Hence, we try to submit a suitable model for implementing this system. PMID:24741657

  3. Managing Complex Dynamical Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John C.; Webster, Robert L.; Curry, Jeanie A.; Hammond, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Management commonly engages in a variety of research designed to provide insight into the motivation and relationships of individuals, departments, organizations, etc. This paper demonstrates how the application of concepts associated with the analysis of complex systems applied to such data sets can yield enhanced insights for managerial action.

  4. Six Questions on Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Symons, John F.; Sanayei, Ali

    2011-09-01

    This paper includes an interview with John F. Symons regarding some important questions in "complex systems" and "complexity". In addition, he has stated some important open problems concerning complex systems in his research area from a philosophical point of view.

  5. Education in a Multicultural Environment: Equity Issues in Teaching and Learning in the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyle, Bill; Charles, Marie

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the auditing and accountancy paradigm that has dominated educational measurement of pupil performance for the last 20 years in England. The advocates of this minimum competency paradigm do not take account of the results of its dominance. These results include ignoring the heterogeneous complexity of groups within societies…

  6. Environmental externality surcharges in power system planning: A case study of New England

    SciTech Connect

    Busch, J.F. Jr; Krause, F.L. )

    1993-08-01

    In several states, public utility commissions have adopted surcharges for environmental externalities (adders) to be used in electric utility planning. The Massachusetts adder system applies major surcharges to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide. In this paper the authors explore the implications in terms of cost and emissions of using the Massachusetts adders as shadow prices in dispatching the pooled electric power system in New England. Their analysis has made use of a probabilistic production cost simulation model to estimate the impacts on the present system, and on a resource mix envisioned 15 years hence. The externality cost adders are used to influence the dispatch of a fixed configuration of power plants and not used to affect the composition of the future resource mix. Compared to conventional dispatch, emissions of SO[sub 2] and NO[sub x] drop by 10% to 15%, while carbon emissions remain virtually unaffected. The production cost penalty is 3% to 4%. In each year, reductions are accomplished mainly by shifting generation away from New England's coal steam power plants.

  7. Mesozoic igneous intrusions in New England and Quebec: Implications from lead (Pb) isotopes on petrogenesis and mantle sources (Ascutney Mountain, Vermont; Mont Saint Hilaire, Quebec; Pliny Complex, New Hampshire)

    SciTech Connect

    Schucker, D.E.

    1992-01-01

    Lead isotopes are used to study Mesozoic intrusions from New England and Quebec, specifically the igneous complexes of Ascutney Mountain (Vermont), Mont Saint Hilaire (Quebec), and Pliny (New Hampshire). The main objectives are to address the: (1) petrogenesis of specific complexes using Pb isotopes along with previous results; and (2) sources of parental magmas in the context of a possible plume source for the Cretaceous intrusions and New England Seamounts. Analytical procedures for Pb and U are also described in detail. For each of the three complexes, significant variation in apparent initial [sup 208]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, [sup 207]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, and [sup 206]Pb/[sup 204]Pb ratios are observed. These variations reflect crustal contamination and local country rocks are isotopically suitable contaminants. Contamination lowers the Pb isotopic ratios of the modified magmas. The Pb ratios of the parental magmas are constrained by defining trends resulting from crustal contamination. At the Ascutney complex, granites appear to be uniform at the time of formation based on feldspar results. Granite whole rocks exhibit open system U-Pb behavior which is attributed to significant recent U loss (of up to 38%). Both local schists and gneisses are important contaminants with generally <25% contamination. Significant isotopic variations are apparent at Mont Saint Hilaire where rock-feldspar variations are apparently not in isotopic equilibrium. Feldspars reflect magmatic values and indicate crustal contamination of a parental magma for the Hilaire complex. A limited data set for the Pliny complex suggests a parental magma. The Pb results support a common mantle source for the Cretaceous continental intrusions (Ascutney and Mont Saint Hilaire) and the New England Seamounts. They imply magma from a sublithospheric mantle-plume, and that magmas ascended with little or no lithospheric interaction. The magma source for the Jurassic Pliny complex appears to be different.

  8. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, 'Ornithocheirus' capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., 'Ornithocheirus' polyodon, 'Ornithocheirus' platystomus, 'Pterodactylus' daviesii, and 'Ornithocheirus' denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here named Anhangueria, which also

  9. Hypernetworks of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Jeffrey

    Hypernetworks generalise the concept of a relation between two things to relations between many things. The notion of relational simplex generalises the concept of network edge to relations between many elements. Relational simplices have multi-dimensional connectivity related to hyper-graphs and the Galois lattice of maximally connected sets of elements. This structure acts as a kind of backcloth for the dynamic system traffic represented by numerical mappings, where the topology of the backcloth constrains the dynamics of the traffic. Simplices provide a way of defining multilevel structure. This relates to system time measured by the formation of simplices as system events. Multilevel hypernetworks are classes of sets of relational simplices that represent the system backcloth and the traffic of systems activity it supports. Hypernetworks provide a significant generalisation of network theory, enabling the integration of relational structure, logic, and topological and analytic dynamics. They provide structures that are likely to be necessary if not sufficient for a science of complex multilevel socio-technical systems.

  10. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  11. Trajectories of Higher Education System Differentiation: Structural Policy-Making and the Impact of Tuition Fees in England and Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaig, Colin

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the impact of student self-financing systems on inequalities of access to higher education (HE) through comparative analysis of two national systems, those of England and Australia. The analysis of the historical development of HE in each nation identifies a set of comparative global themes: the expansion of HE in response to…

  12. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, ‘Ornithocheirus’ capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., ‘Ornithocheirus’ polyodon, ‘Ornithocheirus’ platystomus, ‘Pterodactylus’ daviesii, and ‘Ornithocheirus’ denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here

  13. Assessing the impact of a new health sector pay system upon NHS staff in England

    PubMed Central

    Buchan, James; Evans, David

    2008-01-01

    Background Pay and pay systems are a critical element in any health sector human resource strategy. Changing a pay system can be one strategy to achieve or sustain organizational change. This paper reports on the design and implementation of a completely new pay system in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. 'Agenda for Change' constituted the largest-ever attempt to introduce a new pay system in the UK public services, covering more than one million staff. Its objectives were to improve the delivery of patient care as well as enhance staff recruitment, retention and motivation, and to facilitate new ways of working. Methods This study was the first independent assessment of the impact of Agenda for Change at a local and national level. The methods used in the research were a literature review; review of 'grey' unpublished documentation provided by key stakeholders in the process; analysis of available data; interviews with key national informants (representing government, employers and trade unions), and case studies conducted with senior human resource managers in ten NHS hospitals in England Results Most of the NHS trust managers interviewed were in favour of Agenda for Change, believing it would assist in delivering improvements in patient care and staff experience. The main benefits highlighted were: 'fairness', moving different staff groups on to harmonized conditions; equal pay claim 'protection'; and scope to introduce new roles and working practices. Conclusion Agenda for Change took several years to design, and has only recently been implemented. Its very scale and central importance to NHS costs and delivery of care argues for a full assessment at an early stage so that lessons can be learned and any necessary changes made. This paper highlights weaknesses in evaluation and limitations in progress. The absence of systematically derived and applied impact indicators makes it difficult to assess impact and impact variations. Similarly, the lack of

  14. Ethnic Inequality in Choice-Driven Education Systems: A Longitudinal Study of Performance and Choice in England and Sweden

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Michelle; Jonsson, Jan O.; Rudolphi, Frida

    2012-01-01

    The authors ask whether choice-driven education systems, with comprehensive schools and mass education at the secondary and tertiary level, represented in this article by England and Sweden, provide educational opportunities for ethnic minorities. In studying educational attainment, the authors make a theoretical distinction between mechanisms…

  15. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the pig health monitoring systems used in England.

    PubMed

    Stärk, K D C; Nevel, A

    2009-10-17

    Several systems are being used in England to record information about the health of pigs. The British Pig Health Scheme (BPHS), the National Animal Disease Information System (NADIS), the Zoonoses Action Plan (ZAP) for Salmonella and the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system have been assessed to make recommendations for their future separate or joint development. The structure, organisation, processes, data quality, dissemination, utilisation and acceptance of each system have been assessed. Information was extracted from documents and websites, and informal interviews were conducted with technical experts and stakeholders. The systems covered a broad range of objectives, used variable approaches and operated at very different scales and budgets. There was a high level of awareness and involvement by the industry. Common weaknesses of the systems were the lack of in-depth quantitative analysis of the data, the lack of assessment of each system's impact, and the unknown level of bias as a result of the voluntary or selective participation in them. PMID:19850852

  16. Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England

    PubMed Central

    Ramsay, Angus; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Stephen; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony; Tyrrell, Pippa; Wolfe, Charles; Fulop, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. Methods In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. Results In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. Conclusions A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners. PMID:26811375

  17. Managing complexity of aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamaskar, Shashank

    Growing complexity of modern aerospace systems has exposed the limits of conventional systems engineering tools and challenged our ability to design them in a timely and cost effective manner. According to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), in 2009 nearly half of the defense acquisition programs are expecting 25% or more increase in unit acquisition cost. Increase in technical complexity has been identified as one of the primary drivers behind cost-schedule overruns. Thus to assure the affordability of future aerospace systems, it is increasingly important to develop tools and capabilities for managing their complexity. We propose an approach for managing the complexity of aerospace systems to address this pertinent problem. To this end, we develop a measure that improves upon the state-of-the-art metrics and incorporates key aspects of system complexity. We address the problem of system decomposition by presenting an algorithm for module identification that generates modules to minimize integration complexity. We demonstrate the framework on diverse spacecraft and show the impact of design decisions on integration cost. The measure and the algorithm together help the designer track and manage complexity in different phases of system design. We next investigate how complexity can be used as a decision metric in the model-based design (MBD) paradigm. We propose a framework for complexity enabled design space exploration that introduces the idea of using complexity as a non-traditional design objective. We also incorporate complexity with the component based design paradigm (a sub-field of MBD) and demonstrate it on several case studies. The approach for managing complexity is a small but significant contribution to the vast field of complexity management. We envision our approach being used in concert with a suite of complexity metrics to provide an ability to measure and track complexity through different stages of design and development. This will not

  18. A national syndromic surveillance system for England and Wales using calls to a telephone helpline.

    PubMed

    Smith, G E; Cooper, D L; Loveridge, P; Chinemana, F; Gerard, E; Verlander, N

    2006-01-01

    Routine primary care data provide the means to monitor a variety of syndromes which could give early warning of health protection issues. In the United Kingdom, a national syndromic surveillance system, operated jointly by the UK Health Protection Agency (HPA) and NHS Direct (a national telephone health helpline), examines symptoms reported to NHS Direct. The aim of the system is to identify an increase in syndromes indicative of common infections and diseases, or the early stages of illness caused by the deliberate release of a biological or chemical agent. Data relating to 11 key symptoms/syndromes are received electronically from all 22 NHS Direct call centres covering England and Wales and analysed by the HPA on a daily basis. Statistically significant excesses in calls are automatically highlighted and assessed by a multi-disciplinary team. Although the surveillance system has characterised many sudden rises in syndromes reported to NHS Direct, no evidence of a biological or chemical attack has been detected. Benefits of this work, however, are early warning and tracking of rises in community morbidity (e.g. influenza-like illness, heatstroke); providing reassurance during times of perceived high risk (e.g. after the 7 July 2005 London bombs and December 2005 Buncefield oil depot fire); and timely surveillance data for influenza pandemic planning and epidemic modeling. PMID:17370968

  19. Complex Digital Visual Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This article identifies possibilities for data visualization as art educational research practice. The author presents an analysis of the relationship between works of art and digital visual culture, employing aspects of network analysis drawn from the work of Barabási, Newman, and Watts (2006) and Castells (1994). Describing complex network…

  20. Researching and Developing Music Provision in Special Schools in England for Children and Young People with Complex Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Evangeline; Ockelford, Adam; Welch, Graham

    2009-01-01

    The House of Commons Select Committee on Education (2006) estimated that around 18% of all pupils in England were categorised as having Special Educational Needs (SEN). "Around 3% of all children (250,000) had a statement of SEN and around 1% of all children were in special schools (90,000) which represent approximately one third of children with…

  1. Lost in translation? Theory, policy and practice in systems-based environmental approaches to obesity prevention in the Healthy Towns programme in England.

    PubMed

    Sautkina, Elena; Goodwin, Denise; Jones, Andy; Ogilvie, David; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Cummins, Steven

    2014-09-01

    This paper explores how system-wide approaches to obesity prevention were 'theorised' and translated into practice in the 'Healthy Towns' programme implemented in nine areas in England. Semi-structured interviews with 20 informants, purposively selected to represent national and local programme development, management and delivery were undertaken. Results suggest that informants articulated a theoretical understanding of a system-wide approach to obesity prevention, but simplifying this complex task in the context of uncertainty over programme aims and objectives, and absence of a clear direction from the central government, resulted in local programmes relying on traditional multi-component approaches to programme delivery. The development of clear, practical guidance on implementation should form a central part of future system-wide approaches to obesity prevention. PMID:24973555

  2. The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.

    2011-03-01

    Operational flood forecasting systems share a fundamental challenge: forecast uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall forecasts are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall forecast used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic forecasts only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall forecasts in support of probabilistic flood forecasting. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble forecasts within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic forecasts. Although ensemble rainfall forecasts available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood forecasting systems can provide better information to the forecaster than use of the deterministic forecasts alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also forecasted rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.

  3. Dementia Coding, Workup, and Treatment in the VA New England Healthcare System

    PubMed Central

    Gagnon, David R.; Driver, Jane A.; Altincatal, Arman; Kosik, Nicole; Lanes, Stephan; Lawler, Elizabeth V.

    2014-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests that Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia are underdiagnosed and poorly documented. In our study, we describe patterns of dementia coding and treatment in the Veteran's Administration New England Healthcare System. We conducted a retrospective cohort study with new outpatient ICD-9 codes for several types of dementia between 2002 and 2009. We examined healthcare utilization, medication use, initial dementia diagnoses, and changes in diagnoses over time by provider type. 8,999 veterans received new dementia diagnoses during the study period. Only 18.3% received a code for cognitive impairment other than dementia, most often “memory loss” (65.2%) prior to dementia diagnosis. Two-thirds of patients received their initial code from a PCP. The etiology of dementia was often never specified by ICD-9 code, even by specialists. Patients followed up exclusively by PCPs had lower rates of neuroimaging and were less likely to receive dementia medication. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations were frequent in all patients but highest in those seen by dementia specialists. Dementia medications are commonly used off-label. Our results suggest that, for the majority the patients, no prodrome of the dementia syndrome is documented with diagnostic code, and patients who do not see dementia specialists have less extensive diagnostic assessment and treatment. PMID:24701364

  4. Up or Down and Out? A Systemic Analysis of Young People's Educational Pathways in the Youth Justice System in England and Wales

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lanskey, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    Many young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales are educationally marginalised and systemic barriers to their engagement with education persist. This article presents an analytical framework for understanding how education and youth justice practices shape young people's educational pathways during their time in the youth…

  5. Paleozoic orogens in New England, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, P.; Tucker, R.D.; Bradley, D.; Berry, H.N., IV; Osberg, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphy and isotope geochronology in the crystalline core of the Appalachians suggest revised interpretations of the extent, nature and timing of Paleozoic orogens in New England. Five major episodes of magmatism, deformation, and high-grade regional metamorphism are recognized: Taconian (455-442 Ma), Acadian (423-385 Ma), Neo-Acadian (366-350 Ma), Late Pennsylvanian (300-290 Ma) and Alleghanian (280-260 Ma). In the Taconian, the passive margin of Laurentia was subducted below a complex magmatic arc lasting from 480 to 442 Ma, founded in part on continental crust of a Medial New England terrane with possible affinities with Amazonia. Questions about Medial New England involve its coherence as a single plate, and the nature of its underlying crust. The Acadian began in Late Silurian as a collision between the amalgamated Laurentia-Medial New England and outer belts of Composite Avalon along a cryptic suture in coastal Maine, and progressed northwestward to the Connecticut Valley basin by mid-Devonian. Tonalitic-granitic magmatism and up to granulite-facies metamorphism culminated in Early Devonian, possibly tied to lithospheric detachment below the subducting northwestern plate and consequent asthenosphere upwelling. Newly discovered Neo-Acadian Late Devonian to Early Mississippian tonalitic-granitic magmatism, up to granulite-facies metamorphism, and severe deformation in central Massachusetts took place in a plate context poorly understood. Late Pennsylvanian effects include magmatism, metamorphism, and deformation near south New England gneiss domes and the Sebago batholith, and development of the right-lateral Norumbega fault system. Permian Alleghanian effects include penetrative deformation, granitic intrusions and up to sillimanite-grade metamorphism of Pennsylvanian beds in southeastern New England. These last two episodes relate to the arrival of Africa.

  6. Educational Assessment in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isaacs, Tina

    2010-01-01

    This profile explains the assessment system in England, concentrating on those aspects that are related to government policy. It begins by putting the system in context; it then describes the national educational structure, curriculum and assessment arrangements. The government agencies responsible for carrying out education policies are…

  7. The complexity of anatomical systems

    PubMed Central

    Grizzi, Fabio; Chiriva-Internati, Maurizio

    2005-01-01

    Background The conception of anatomical entities as a hierarchy of infinitely graduated forms and the increase in the number of observed anatomical sub-entities and structural variables has generated a growing complexity, thus highlighting new properties of organised biological matter. Results (1) Complexity is so pervasive in the anatomical world that it has come to be considered as a primary characteristic of anatomical systems. (2) Anatomical entities, when viewed at microscopic as well as macroscopic level of observation, show a different degree of complexity. (3) Complexity can reside in the structure of the anatomical system (having many diverse parts with varying interactions or an intricate architecture) or in its behaviour. Often complexity in structure and behaviour go together. (4) Complex systems admit many descriptions (ways of looking at the system) each of which is only partially true. Each way of looking at a complex system requires its own description, its own mode of analysis and its own breaking down of the system in different parts; (5) Almost all the anatomical entities display hierarchical forms: their component structures at different spatial scales or their process at different time scales are related to each other. Conclusion The need to find a new way of observing and measuring anatomical entities, and objectively quantifying their different structural changes, prompted us to investigate the non-Euclidean geometries and the theories of complexity, and to apply their concepts to human anatomy. This attempt has led us to reflect upon the complex significance of the shape of an observed anatomical entity. Its changes have been defined in relation to variations in its status: from a normal (i.e. natural) to a pathological or altered state introducing the concepts of kinematics and dynamics of anatomical forms, speed of their changes, and that of scale of their observation. PMID:16029490

  8. Challenges in complex systems science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Miguel, M.; Johnson, J. H.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.; Díaz-Guilera, A.; MacKay, R. S.; Loreto, V.; Érdi, P.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.

  9. Data model and relational database design for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tessler, Steven

    2001-01-01

    The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a database for the storage and retrieval of water-use data. NEWUDS can handle data covering many facets of water use, including (1) tracking various types of water-use activities (withdrawals, returns, transfers, distributions, consumptive-use, wastewater collection, and treatment); (2) the description, classification and location of places and organizations involved in water-use activities; (3) details about measured or estimated volumes of water associated with water-use activities; and (4) information about data sources and water resources associated with water use. In NEWUDS, each water transaction occurs unidirectionally between two site objects, and the sites and conveyances form a water network. The core entities in the NEWUDS model are site, conveyance, transaction/rate, location, and owner. Other important entities include water resources (used for withdrawals and returns), data sources, and aliases. Multiple water-exchange estimates can be stored for individual transactions based on different methods or data sources. Storage of user-defined details is accommodated for several of the main entities. Numerous tables containing classification terms facilitate detailed descriptions of data items and can be used for routine or custom data summarization. NEWUDS handles single-user and aggregate-user water-use data, can be used for large or small water-network projects, and is available as a stand-alone Microsoft? Access database structure. Users can customize and extend the database, link it to other databases, or implement the design in other relational database applications.

  10. Monopolising the Examining Board System in England: A Theoretical Perspective in Support of Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    The fiascoes that seem to accompany the annual publication of examination results in England, the subsequent inquiries instituted to ensure they "never happen again" and the Secretary of State's decision, reversed six months later because of fears about possible EU legal challenges, to "end competition between exam boards"…

  11. Opening Up Jewish Education to Inspection: The Impact of the OFSTED Inspection System in England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keiner, Judy

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of the first government inspections of Jewish schools in England by the Office for Standards in Education (OFSTED) shows mismatches between the schools' declared aims for Jewish Studies, and their practices, as well as problems in the teaching of Hebrew. (SLD)

  12. Language Networks as Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Max Kueiming; Ou, Sheue-Jen

    2008-01-01

    Starting in the late eighties, with a growing discontent with analytical methods in science and the growing power of computers, researchers began to study complex systems such as living organisms, evolution of genes, biological systems, brain neural networks, epidemics, ecology, economy, social networks, etc. In the early nineties, the research…

  13. Mineralogical Evidence for the Palaeohydrogeological Stability of a Deep Groundwater System in Fractured Rock, in West Cumbria, Northwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milodowski, A. E.; Gillespie, M. R.; Chenery, S. R. N.; Naden, J.; Shaw, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    An important requirement of the safety assessment for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for radioactive waste is to be able to demonstrate the long-term chemical stability of the groundwater system at repository depth over the long period of time during which the waste will be a hazard, typically up to one million years. Of particular concern in the UK is the potential for oxidising groundwater to penetrate to repository depth during periods of glaciation, thereby increasing the mobility of some transuranic radionuclides.Between 1990 and 1998, United Kingdom Nirex Limited carried out geological investigations into the suitability of a potential site in the Sellafield area of NW England, for a GDF for L/ILW. As part of these investigations, detailed petrological analysis of fracture mineralisation in 23 deep boreholes identified a complex sequence of mineralisation events referred to as ME1-ME9. The distribution of the ME9 calcite mineralisation correlates closely with present-day groundwater flows. The ME9 calcite has been studied in more detail to understand the evolution of the deep groundwater system. The morphology and growth zoning characteristics of the calcites reflects the groundwater chemistry. Freshwater calcites display c-axis flattened to equant crystals, and are non-ferroan and strongly zoned with Mn-rich and Mn-free bands. Deeper saline-zone calcites display c-axis elongated crystals, with high Mn:Fe and low Mn:Fe growth zones. Calcite in the transition zone between the saline and fresh groundwater display saline-type cores overgrown by freshwater-type calcite, indicating a small depression of the position of the transition zone during the growth of the calcites. Sr isotope ratios and fluid inclusion chemistry confirm a link between ME9 calcite and the present regional groundwater system. Modelling of the oxygen isotope data indicates that some growth zones in the ME9 calcite precipitated from groundwater potentially containing a significant

  14. 1998 Complex Systems Summer School

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-15

    For the past eleven years a group of institutes, centers, and universities throughout the country have sponsored a summer school in Santa Fe, New Mexico as part of an interdisciplinary effort to promote the understanding of complex systems. The goal of these summer schools is to provide graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and active research scientists with an introduction to the study of complex behavior in mathematical, physical, and living systems. The Center for Nonlinear Studies supported the eleventh in this series of highly successful schools in Santa Fe in June, 1998.

  15. Synchronization in complex dynamical networks coupled with complex chaotic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-Jun; Wang, Bo

    2015-11-01

    This paper investigates synchronization in complex dynamical networks with time delay and perturbation. The node of complex dynamical networks is composed of complex chaotic system. A complex feedback controller is designed to realize different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function when complex dynamical networks realize synchronization. The synchronization scaling function is changed from real field to complex field. Synchronization in complex dynamical networks with constant delay and time-varying coupling delay are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Physical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwapień, Jarosław; Drożdż, Stanisław

    2012-06-01

    Typically, complex systems are natural or social systems which consist of a large number of nonlinearly interacting elements. These systems are open, they interchange information or mass with environment and constantly modify their internal structure and patterns of activity in the process of self-organization. As a result, they are flexible and easily adapt to variable external conditions. However, the most striking property of such systems is the existence of emergent phenomena which cannot be simply derived or predicted solely from the knowledge of the systems’ structure and the interactions among their individual elements. This property points to the holistic approaches which require giving parallel descriptions of the same system on different levels of its organization. There is strong evidence-consolidated also in the present review-that different, even apparently disparate complex systems can have astonishingly similar characteristics both in their structure and in their behaviour. One can thus expect the existence of some common, universal laws that govern their properties. Physics methodology proves helpful in addressing many of the related issues. In this review, we advocate some of the computational methods which in our opinion are especially fruitful in extracting information on selected-but at the same time most representative-complex systems like human brain, financial markets and natural language, from the time series representing the observables associated with these systems. The properties we focus on comprise the collective effects and their coexistence with noise, long-range interactions, the interplay between determinism and flexibility in evolution, scale invariance, criticality, multifractality and hierarchical structure. The methods described either originate from “hard” physics-like the random matrix theory-and then were transmitted to other fields of science via the field of complex systems research, or they originated elsewhere but

  17. Disorder in Complex Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akdeniz, K. Gediz

    2011-11-01

    Since the world of human and whose life becomes more and more complex every day because of the digital technology and under the storm of knowledge (media, internet, governmental and non-governmental organizations, etc...) the simulation is rapidly growing in the social systems and in human behaviors. The formation of the body and mutual interactions are left to digital technological, communication mechanisms and coding the techno genetics of the body. Deconstruction begins everywhere. The linear simulation mechanism with modern realities are replaced by the disorder simulation of human behaviors with awareness realities. In this paper I would like to introduce simulation theory of "Disorder Sensitive Human Behaviors". I recently proposed this theory to critique the role of disorder human behaviors in social systems. In this theory the principle of realty is the chaotic awareness of the complexity of human systems inside of principle of modern thinking in Baudrillard's simulation theory. Proper examples will be also considered to investigate the theory.

  18. A real time data acquisition system by satellite relay. [hydrology and flood measurement in New England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, S.

    1974-01-01

    The overall aim was to evaluate the future usefulness of satellites in the performance of coordination and management functions related to the operation of flood control and other multipurpose projects in New England. Results on the data collection portion of the work are presented. The principal task was to develop statistics that demonstrate the relationship between conventional means of acquiring hydrologic data and the contribution made by using the satellite and its data collection platforms. Main interest was in determining the availability, reliability and usability of the data. Significant results on DCS show that the DCP's are reliable and useful and satellite data collection appears feasible on a nationwide basis.

  19. Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2004-10-14

    EMCAS is a model developed for the simulation and analysis of electricity markets. As power markets are relatively new and still continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time and how market participants may act and react to the changing economic, financial, and regulatory environments in which they operate. A new and rather promising approach applied in the EMCAS software is tomore » model the electricity market as a complex adaptive system using an agent-based modeling and simulation scheme. With its unique combination of various novel approaches, the Agent Based Modeling System (ABMS) provides the ability to capture and investigate the complex interactions between the physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and the economic behavior of market participants that are a trademark of the newly emerging markets.« less

  20. Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System

    SciTech Connect

    2004-10-14

    EMCAS is a model developed for the simulation and analysis of electricity markets. As power markets are relatively new and still continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time and how market participants may act and react to the changing economic, financial, and regulatory environments in which they operate. A new and rather promising approach applied in the EMCAS software is to model the electricity market as a complex adaptive system using an agent-based modeling and simulation scheme. With its unique combination of various novel approaches, the Agent Based Modeling System (ABMS) provides the ability to capture and investigate the complex interactions between the physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and the economic behavior of market participants that are a trademark of the newly emerging markets.

  1. Human Error In Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Nancy M.; Rouse, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

  2. Semiotics of constructed complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Landauer, C.; Bellman, K.L.

    1996-12-31

    The scope of this paper is limited to software and other constructed complex systems mediated or integrated by software. Our research program studies foundational issues that we believe will help us develop a theoretically sound approach to constructing complex systems. There have really been only two theoretical approaches that have helped us understand and develop computational systems: mathematics and linguistics. We show how semiotics can also play a role, whether we think of it as part of these other theories or as subsuming one or both of them. We describe our notion of {open_quotes}computational semiotics{close_quotes}, which we define to be the study of computational methods of dealing with symbols, show how such a theory might be formed, and describe what we might get from it in terms of more interesting use of symbols by computing systems. This research was supported in part by the Federal Highway Administration`s Office of Advanced Research and by the Advanced Research Projects Agency`s Software and Intelligent Systems Technology Office.

  3. A Combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach for the analysis of Large Scale Atmospheric Features and River Floods in England and Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, Federico; Cioffi, Francesco; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may represent specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. Given this hypothesis an open question is how best to identify such states, and their space-time persistence. Such a mapping would facilitate a physically meaningful identification of the potential severity, frequency and duration of such events in future climates. With this in view, the link between large scale atmospheric circulation and the extreme floods in Germany and England is investigated by a combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach. Historical data from 57 streamflow gages in England and 68 in Germany and the Reanalysis Historical Data of the Atmospheric Circulation Fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N, are used for the purpose. The common period of record is from 1960 to 2012. A finite number of typical atmospheric configurations of the considered region are identified by using the Kohonen Networks approach. This approach is preceded by the application of the Principal Component Analysis of the selected atmospheric variable; a number of PCs is retained to explain more than the 99% of the variance. Then the historical sequence of the atmospheric fields, by using k-nearest neighbor methods, is transformed into a binary matrix which identifies, at each time step, the atmospheric configuration most similar to one of the typical ones identified by the Kohonen Network. A further binary matrix is constructed by using as a threshold the 99th percentile of the discharge rates. Finally the Event Synchronization method is applied determining synchronization, causality and delay between the extreme floods in each streamflow gage and the associated atmospheric circulation feature. We find that the proposed approach can be useful and effective to identify the most critical atmospheric circulation patterns responsible of the extreme floods and thus to be used as part of a prediction strategy.

  4. Pressure ulcer and wounds reporting in NHS hospitals in England part 2: Survey of monitoring systems.

    PubMed

    Coleman, Susanne; Smith, Isabelle L; Nixon, Jane; Wilson, Lyn; Brown, Sarah

    2016-02-01

    This is the second of a two related papers describing work undertaken to compare and contrast Pressure Ulcer (PU) monitoring systems across NHS in-patient facilities in England. The work comprised 1) a PU/Wound Audit (PUWA) and 2) a survey of PU monitoring systems. This second paper focusses on the survey which explores differences in the implementation of PU adverse event monitoring systems in 24 NHS hospital Trusts in England. The survey questionnaire comprised 41 items incorporating single and multiple response options and free-text items and was completed by the PUWA Trust lead in liaison with key people in the organisation. All 24 (100%) Trusts returned the questionnaire, with high levels of data completeness (99.1%). The questionnaire results showed variation between Trusts in relation to the recording of PUs and their reporting as part of NHS prevalence and incident monitoring systems and to Trust boards and healthcare commissioners including the inclusion (or not) of device ulcers, unstageable ulcers, Deep Tissue Injury, combined PUs/Incontinence Associated Dermatitis, category ≥ 1 ulcers or category ≥ 2 ulcers, inherited ulcers, acquired ulcers, avoidable and unavoidable ulcers and the definition of Present On Admission. These fundamental differences in reporting preclude Trust to Trust comparisons of PU prevalence and incident reporting and monitoring systems due to variation in local application and data collection methods. The results of this work and the PUWA led to the development of recommendations for PU monitoring practice, many of which are internationally relevant. PMID:26774821

  5. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  6. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  7. Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

  8. Multilevel Complex Networks and Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldarelli, Guido

    2014-03-01

    Network theory has been a powerful tool to model isolated complex systems. However, the classical approach does not take into account the interactions often present among different systems. Hence, the scientific community is nowadays concentrating the efforts on the foundations of new mathematical tools for understanding what happens when multiple networks interact. The case of economic and financial networks represents a paramount example of multilevel networks. In the case of trade, trade among countries the different levels can be described by the different granularity of the trading relations. Indeed, we have now data from the scale of consumers to that of the country level. In the case of financial institutions, we have a variety of levels at the same scale. For example one bank can appear in the interbank networks, ownership network and cds networks in which the same institution can take place. In both cases the systemically important vertices need to be determined by different procedures of centrality definition and community detection. In this talk I will present some specific cases of study related to these topics and present the regularities found. Acknowledged support from EU FET Project ``Multiplex'' 317532.

  9. Multiscale Resilience of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Giangola-Murzyn, A.; Hoang Cong, T.

    2014-12-01

    We first argue the need for well defined resilience metrics to better evaluate the resilience of complex systems such as (peri-)urban flood management systems. We review both the successes and limitations of resilience metrics in the framework of dynamical systems and their generalization in the framework of the viability theory. We then point out that the most important step to achieve is to define resilience across scales instead of doing it at a given scale. Our preliminary, critical analysis of the series of attempts to define an operational resilience metrics led us to consider a scale invariant metrics based on the scale independent codimension of extreme singularities. Multifractal downscaling of climate scenarios can be considered as a first illustration. We focussed on a flood scenario evaluation method with the help of two singularities γ_s and γ_Max, corresponding respectively to an effective and a probable maximum singularity, that yield an innovative framework to address the issues of flood resilience systems in a scale independent manner. Indeed, the stationarity of the universal multifractal parameters would result into a rather stable value of probable maximum singularity γ_s. By fixing the limit of acceptability for a maximum flood water depth at a given scale, with a corresponding singularity, we effectively fix the threshold of the probable maximum singularity γ_s as a criterion of the flood resilience we accept. Then various scenarios of flood resilient measures could be simulated with the help of Multi-Hydro under upcoming climat scenarios. The scenarios that result in estimates of either γ_Max or γ_s below the pre-selected γ_s value will assure the effective flood resilience of the whole modeled system across scales. The research for this work was supported, in part, by the EU FP7 SMARTesT and INTERREG IVB RainGain projects.

  10. Complexity and synchronization in stochastic chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Son Dang, Thai; Palit, Sanjay Kumar; Mukherjee, Sayan; Hoang, Thang Manh; Banerjee, Santo

    2016-02-01

    We investigate the complexity of a hyperchaotic dynamical system perturbed by noise and various nonlinear speech and music signals. The complexity is measured by the weighted recurrence entropy of the hyperchaotic and stochastic systems. The synchronization phenomenon between two stochastic systems with complex coupling is also investigated. These criteria are tested on chaotic and perturbed systems by mean conditional recurrence and normalized synchronization error. Numerical results including surface plots, normalized synchronization errors, complexity variations etc show the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.

  11. Cooperative behaviour in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karsai, Márton

    2009-07-01

    In my PhD thesis I studied cooperative phenomena arise in complex systems using the methods of statistical and computational physics. The aim of my work was also to study the critical behaviour of interacting many-body systems during their phase transitions and describe their universal features analytically and by means of numerical calculations. In order to do so I completed studies in four different subjects. My first investigated subject was a study of non-equilibrium phase transitions in weighted scale-free networks. The second problem I examined was the ferromagnetic random bond Potts model with large values of q on evolving scale-free networks which problem is equivalent to an optimal cooperation problem. The third examined problem was related to the large-q sate random bond Potts model also and I examined the critical density of clusters which touched a certain border of a perpendicular strip like geometry and expected to hold analytical forms deduced from conformal invariance. The last investigated problem was a study of the non-equilibrium dynamical behaviour of the antiferromagnetic Ising model on two-dimensional triangular lattice at zero temperature in the absence of external field and at the Kosterlitz-Thouless phase transition point.

  12. Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiao, Yan; Mankenzie, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

  13. Reduction of Subjective and Objective System Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Occam's razor is often used in science to define the minimum criteria to establish a physical or philosophical idea or relationship. Albert Einstein is attributed the saying "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler". These heuristic ideas are based on a belief that there is a minimum state or set of states for a given system or phenomena. In looking at system complexity, these heuristics point us to an idea that complexity can be reduced to a minimum. How then, do we approach a reduction in complexity? Complexity has been described as a subjective concept and an objective measure of a system. Subjective complexity is based on human cognitive comprehension of the functions and inter relationships of a system. Subjective complexity is defined by the ability to fully comprehend the system. Simplifying complexity, in a subjective sense, is thus gaining a deeper understanding of the system. As Apple's Jonathon Ive has stated," It's not just minimalism or the absence of clutter. It involves digging through the depth of complexity. To be truly simple, you have to go really deep". Simplicity is not the absence of complexity but a deeper understanding of complexity. Subjective complexity, based on this human comprehension, cannot then be discerned from the sociological concept of ignorance. The inability to comprehend a system can be either a lack of knowledge, an inability to understand the intricacies of a system, or both. Reduction in this sense is based purely on a cognitive ability to understand the system and no system then may be truly complex. From this view, education and experience seem to be the keys to reduction or eliminating complexity. Objective complexity, is the measure of the systems functions and interrelationships which exist independent of human comprehension. Jonathon Ive's statement does not say that complexity is removed, only that the complexity is understood. From this standpoint, reduction of complexity can be approached

  14. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York.

    PubMed

    Phillips, P J; Schubert, C; Argue, D; Fisher, I; Furlong, E T; Foreman, W; Gray, J; Chalmers, A

    2015-04-15

    Septic-system discharges can be an important source of micropollutants (including pharmaceuticals and endocrine active compounds) to adjacent groundwater and surface water systems. Groundwater samples were collected from well networks tapping glacial till in New England (NE) and sandy surficial aquifer New York (NY) during one sampling round in 2011. The NE network assesses the effect of a single large septic system that receives discharge from an extended health care facility for the elderly. The NY network assesses the effect of many small septic systems used seasonally on a densely populated portion of Fire Island. The data collected from these two networks indicate that hydrogeologic and demographic factors affect micropollutant concentrations in these systems. The highest micropollutant concentrations from the NE network were present in samples collected from below the leach beds and in a well downgradient of the leach beds. Total concentrations for personal care/domestic use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds and plasticizer compounds generally ranged from 1 to over 20 μg/L in the NE network samples. High tris(2-butoxyethyl phosphate) plasticizer concentrations in wells beneath and downgradient of the leach beds (>20 μg/L) may reflect the presence of this compound in cleaning agents at the extended health-care facility. The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely

  15. Scale Effect in Nutrient Transport along a Rural River System: THE River Eden, Cumbria, Northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tijani, F. O.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.

    2014-12-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities and this increase downstream. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Higher nitrate concentration is associated with the period of low flow (strongest negative relationship, R2 = 0.97, was recorded in autumn sampling campaign at a gauging station). In contrast, phosphorus and suspended sediment are positively associated with discharge (strongest relationship (R2= 0.97) for total P were recorded in spring campaign at a gauging station). Similarly the dryness or wetness of a season affects the nutrient concentrations. Thus, it appears that hydrology and land use

  16. Scale effect in nutrient transport along a rural river system: the River Eden, Cumbria, northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oladapo Tijani, Fatai; Bathurst, James; Quinn, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. These are the Catchment Hydrology And Sustainable Management (CHASM) project, that provides a large spatial scale study platform along the Eden, and the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) project that provides high resolution data for contrasting land uses that could help to explain, in detail, the mechanisms for transport of nutrients to the river. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Agricultural production generally increases downstream and may therefore appear to support a spatial scale dependency in nutrient yield. Higher nitrate concentration is associated

  17. England's New Market Based System of Student Education: An Initial Report. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.7.13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In 2012 the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government introduced a number of reforms to the higher education system in England. The main change was to abolish direct state subsidies for the teaching of most subjects, and replace them with a state-subsidised tuition fee of up to $9,000 (US $13,700). A number of other changes were also made, all with…

  18. Proteins as paradigms of complex systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fenimore, P. W.; Frauenfelder, Hans,; Young, R. D.

    2003-03-26

    The science of complexity has moved to center stage within the past few decades. Complex systems range from glasses to the immune system and the brain. Glasses are too simple to possess all aspects of complexity; brains are too complex to expose common concepts and laws of complexity. Proteins, however, are systems where many concepts and laws of complexity can be explored experimentally, theoretically, and computationally. Such studies have elucidated crucial aspects. The energy landscape has emerged as one central concept; it describes the free energy of a system as a function of temperature and the coordinates of all relevant atoms. A second concept is that of fluctuations. Without fluctuations, proteins would be dead and life impossible. A third concept is slaving. Proteins are not isolated systems; they are embedded in cells and membranes. Slaving arises when the fluctuations in the surroundings of a protein dominate many of the motions of the protein proper.

  19. Analysis of Hyperchaotic Complex Lorenz Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.; Ahmed, Mansour E.; Mahmoud, Emad E.

    This paper introduces and analyzes new hyperchaotic complex Lorenz systems. These systems are 6-dimensional systems of real first order autonomous differential equations and their dynamics are very complicated and rich. In this study we extend the idea of adding state feedback control and introduce the complex periodic forces to generate hyperchaotic behaviors. The fractional Lyapunov dimension of the hyperchaotic attractors of these systems is calculated. Bifurcation analysis is used to demonstrate chaotic and hyperchaotic behaviors of our new systems. Dynamical systems where the main variables are complex appear in many important fields of physics and communications.

  20. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-01

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  1. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-04

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  2. A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Zhao, H; Green, H; Lackenby, A; Donati, M; Ellis, J; Thompson, C; Bermingham, A; Field, J; Sebastianpillai, P; Zambon, M; Watson, Jm; Pebody, R

    2014-01-01

    During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, a new laboratory-based virological sentinel surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), was established in a network of 14 Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England (PHE)) and National Health Service (NHS) laboratories in England. Laboratory results (both positive and negative) were systematically collected from all routinely tested clinical respiratory samples for a range of respiratory viruses including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The RDMS also monitored the occurrence of antiviral resistance of influenza viruses. Data from the RDMS for the 2009–2012 period showed that the 2009 pandemic influenza virus caused three waves of activity with different intensities during the pandemic and post pandemic periods. Peaks in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positivity (defined as number of positive samples per total number of samples tested) were seen in summer and autumn in 2009, with slightly higher peak positivity observed in the first post-pandemic season in 2010/2011. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain almost completely disappeared in the second postpandemic season in 2011/2012. The RDMS findings are consistent with other existing community-based virological and clinical surveillance systems. With a large sample size, this new system provides a robust supplementary mechanism, through the collection of routinely available laboratory data at minimum extra cost, to monitor influenza as well as other respiratory virus activity. A near real-time, daily reporting mechanism in the RDMS was established during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Furthermore, this system can be quickly adapted and used to monitor future influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease, including novel pathogens. PMID:24480060

  3. Social networks as embedded complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Benham-Hutchins, Marge; Clancy, Thomas R

    2010-09-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 15th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, the authors discuss healthcare social networks as a hierarchy of embedded complex adaptive systems. The authors further examine the use of social network analysis tools as a means to understand complex communication patterns and reduce medical errors. PMID:20798616

  4. The Ontologies of Complexity and Learning about Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Michael J.; Kapur, Manu; So, Hyo-Jeong; Lee, June

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a study of students learning core conceptual perspectives from recent scientific research on complexity using a hypermedia learning environment in which different types of scaffolding were provided. Three comparison groups used a hypermedia system with agent-based models and scaffolds for problem-based learning activities that…

  5. Local Authorities and the Education of Young People with Sickle Cell Disorders in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, S. M.; Abuateya, H.; Atkin, K.; Culley, L. A.; Dyson, S. E.; Rowley, D. T.

    2008-01-01

    The successful inclusion of minority ethnic pupils with sickle cell disorders (SCD) raises a number of challenges for educational systems. In England, local education authorities were important drivers for innovative responses to complex needs and the former Inner London Education Authority produced guidance in 1989 on SCD in schools. Local…

  6. Systems chemistry: Selecting complex behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bissette, Andrew J.; Fletcher, Stephen P.

    2015-01-01

    Creating chemical systems that can model living systems is far from easy. However, the evolution of oil droplets in water through the application of artificial selective pressure to produce droplets with dramatically different -- yet specific -- behaviours, is an encouraging step in this direction.

  7. Nervous System Complexity Baffles Scientists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jeffrey L.

    1982-01-01

    New research findings about how nerve cells transmit signals are forcing researchers to overhaul their simplistic ideas about the nervous system. Topics highlighted include the multiple role of peptides in the nervous system, receptor molecules, and molecules that form ion channels within membranes. (Author/JN)

  8. Statistically Validated Networks in Bipartite Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tumminello, Michele; Miccichè, Salvatore; Lillo, Fabrizio; Piilo, Jyrki; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2011-01-01

    Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite structure where elements of one set link to elements of the second set. In these complex systems, such as the system of actors and movies, elements of one set are qualitatively different than elements of the other set. The properties of these complex systems are typically investigated by constructing and analyzing a projected network on one of the two sets (for example the actor network or the movie network). Complex systems are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set, and this heterogeneity makes it very difficult to discriminate links of the projected network that are just reflecting system's heterogeneity from links relevant to unveil the properties of the system. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of a projected network against a null hypothesis that takes into account system heterogeneity. We apply the method to a biological, an economic and a social complex system. The method we propose is able to detect network structures which are very informative about the organization and specialization of the investigated systems, and identifies those relationships between elements of the projected network that cannot be explained simply by system heterogeneity. We also show that our method applies to bipartite systems in which different relationships might have different qualitative nature, generating statistically validated networks in which such difference is preserved. PMID:21483858

  9. Networking Hospital ePrescribing: A Systemic View of Digitalization of Medicines' Use in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, Valentina; Hibberd, Ralph; Cornford, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Medicine management is at the core of hospital care and digitalization of prescribing and administration of medicines is often the focus of attention of health IT programs. This may be conveyed to the public in terms of the elimination of paper-based drug charts and increased readability of doctors' prescriptions. Based on analysis of documents about hospital medicines supply and use (including systems' implementation) in the UK, in this conceptual paper electronic prescribing and administration are repositioned as only one aspect of an important wider transformation in medicine management in hospital settings, involving, for example, procurement, dispensing, auditing, waste management, research and safety vigilance. Approaching digitalization from a systemic perspective has the potential to uncover the wider implications of this transformation for patients, the organization and the wider health care system. PMID:27332165

  10. The Environmental Belief Systems of Organic and Conventional Farmers: Evidence from Central-Southern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kings, David; Ilbery, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Little comparative work has been conducted on the environmental belief systems and behaviours of conventional and organic farmers, especially in relation to farming culture, the environment and lowland farmland avifauna. Adopting a modified behavioural approach, this paper analyses the ways in which the environmental attitudes and understandings…

  11. Geospatial assessments of cropping systems and farmland assemblages in New England

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Detailed assessments of the current state of crop production systems are essential to modeling potential productivity and evaluating core issues of sustainability for local to regional food supply studies. The main objective of this regionally-based geospatial investigation was to evaluate the most ...

  12. Infrared systems - Design and testing; Proceedings of the Meeting, London, England, June 9, 10, 1988

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, P.R.; Seeley, J.

    1988-01-01

    Topics discussed include design and devices, thermography and imaging, quality assurance aspects, and infrared modeling. Particular papers are presented on improvements in the design and manufacture of IR optical systems, IR linescanners for tactical reconnaissance, the optical testing of IR materials and components, the IR modeling for air targets.

  13. Simple molecules as complex systems.

    PubMed

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Arendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H2(16)O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an "ultra-small-world" property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  14. Simple molecules as complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Árendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H216O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an “ultra-small-world” property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  15. Active impedance matching of complex structural systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macmartin, Douglas G.; Miller, David W.; Hall, Steven R.

    1991-01-01

    Viewgraphs on active impedance matching of complex structural systems are presented. Topics covered include: traveling wave model; dereverberated mobility model; computation of dereverberated mobility; control problem: optimal impedance matching; H2 optimal solution; statistical energy analysis (SEA) solution; experimental transfer functions; interferometer actuator and sensor locations; active strut configurations; power dual variables; dereverberation of complex structure; dereverberated transfer function; compensators; and relative power flow.

  16. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  17. Prediction and characterization of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mainieri, R.; Baer, M.; Brand, H.

    1996-10-01

    Complex systems are difficult to characterize and to simulate. By considering a series of explicit systems, through experiments and analysis, this project has shown that dynamical systems can be used to model complex systems. A complex dynamical system requires an exponential amount of computer work to simulate accurately. Direct methods are not practical and it is only by an hierarchical approach that one can gain control over the exponential behavior. This allows the development of efficient methods to study fluid flow and to simulate biological systems. There are two steps in the hierarchical approach. First, one must characterize the complex system as a collection of large domains or objects that have their own forms of interactions. This is done by considering coherent structures, such as solitons, spirals, and propagating fronts and determining their interactions. Second, one must be able to predict the properties of the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system.This is accomplished by an understanding of the topology of the orbits of the dynamical system. The coherent structure description was carried out in fluid and reaction diffusion systems. It was shown that very simple models from statistical mechanics could characterize a rotating Rayleigh-Benard system and that patters in reaction-diffusion systems are well described by soliton-like solutions. The studies of dynamical systems showed that simple characterizations of the phase space can be used to determine long time bounds. Also, that periodic orbit theory can be used to demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulations will converge to incorrect results.

  18. Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gillian E; Bawa, Zharain; Macklin, Yolande; Morbey, Roger; Dobney, Alec; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Elliot, Alex J

    2015-01-01

    During March and early April 2014 there was widespread poor air quality across the United Kingdom. Public Health England used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health during the period. Short lived statistically significant rises in a variety of respiratory conditions, including asthma and wheeze, were detected. This incident has demonstrated the value of real-time syndromic surveillance systems, during an air pollution episode, for helping to explore the impact of poor air quality on community health in real-time. PMID:25460672

  19. (R)evolution of complex regulatory systems.

    PubMed

    Linding, Rune

    2010-01-01

    Signaling systems are exciting to study precisely because they are some of the most complex and dynamical systems that we know. The cell needs operational freedom and, thus, many motif-domain interactions might not be "hard-wired" through evolution, but instead may be like the Linux operating system, where symbolic links can point to files without duplication. PMID:20571125

  20. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  1. London, England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth.

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats

  2. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed Central

    Katz, J. Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too. PMID:27258040

  3. In Defense of Simulating Complex and Tragic Historical Episodes: A Measured Response to the Outcry over a New England Slavery Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright-Maley, Cory

    2014-01-01

    A slavery simulation that took place as part of a field trip for students of a Hartford junior high academy led a father to file a human rights suit against the school district, and for one official to comment that simulations of complex and tragic human phenomena have "no place in an educational system." In light of these conclusions,…

  4. Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.

    1975-01-01

    After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

  5. System Complexity Reduction via Feature Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deng, Houtao

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree…

  6. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III; Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  7. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-01

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed.

  8. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems.

    PubMed

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-27

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed. PMID:26980311

  9. Particlelike wave packets in complex scattering systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gérardin, Benoît; Laurent, Jérôme; Ambichl, Philipp; Prada, Claire; Rotter, Stefan; Aubry, Alexandre

    2016-07-01

    A wave packet undergoes a strong spatial and temporal dispersion while propagating through a complex medium. This wave scattering is often seen as a nightmare in wave physics whether it be for focusing, imaging, or communication purposes. Controlling wave propagation through complex systems is thus of fundamental interest in many areas, ranging from optics or acoustics to medical imaging or telecommunications. Here, we study the propagation of elastic waves in a cavity and a disordered waveguide by means of laser interferometry. From the direct experimental access to the time-delay matrix of these systems, we demonstrate the existence of particlelike wave packets that remain focused in time and space throughout their complex trajectory. Due to their limited dispersion, their selective excitation will be crucially relevant for all applications involving selective wave focusing and efficient information transfer through complex media.

  10. Complexity and Stability in Biological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demongeot, Jacques; Demetrius, Lloyd A.

    2015-06-01

    The hypothesis that a positive correlation exists between the complexity of a biological system, as described by its connectance, and its stability, as measured by its ability to recover from disturbance, derives from the investigations of the physiologists, Bernard and Cannon, and the ecologist Elton. Studies based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems and the theory of large deviations have furnished an analytic support for this hypothesis. Complexity in this context is described by the mathematical object evolutionary entropy, stability is characterized by the rate at which the system returns to its stable conditions (steady state or periodic attractor) after a random perturbation of its robustness. This article reviews the analytical basis of the entropy — robustness theorem — and invokes studies of genetic regulatory networks to provide empirical support for the correlation between complexity and stability. Earlier investigations based on numerical studies of random matrix models and the notion of local stability have led to the claim that complex ecosystems tend to be more dynamically fragile. This article elucidates the basis for this claim which is largely inconsistent with the empirical observations of Bernard, Cannon and Elton. Our analysis thus resolves a long standing controversy regarding the relation between complex biological systems and their capacity to recover from perturbations. The entropy-robustness principle is a mathematical proposition with implications for understanding the basis for the large variations in stability observed in biological systems having evolved under different environmental conditions.

  11. Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASOS) engineering environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Detry, Richard Joseph; Linebarger, John Michael; Finley, Patrick D.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2012-02-01

    Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

  12. Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lanzas, Cristina; Chen, Shi

    2015-02-01

    The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets. PMID:25449734

  13. Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    First featured in Spinoff 2001, Qualtech Systems Inc. (QSI), of Wethersfield, Connecticut, adapted its Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System (TEAMS) toolset under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Ames Research Center to strengthen NASA's systems health management approach for its large, complex, and interconnected systems. Today, six NASA field centers utilize the TEAMS toolset, including TEAMS-Designer, TEAMS-RT, TEAMATE, and TEAMS-RDS. TEAMS is also being used on industrial systems that generate power, carry data, refine chemicals, perform medical functions, and produce semiconductor wafers. QSI finds TEAMS can lower costs by decreasing problems requiring service by 30 to 50 percent.

  14. The Physics of Complex Systems in Cuba

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sotolongo-Costa, Oscar

    In relating the circumstances that led to the birth and development of the physics of complex systems in Cuba, it is difficult to avoid being anecdotal—particularly because of the difficult times during which this research started. Cuban eclecticism, whose spectrum extends from religious syncretism to world-class medicine, seems quite coherent with the field of complex systems, characterized by the synergy of diverse fields. Such a combination, however, in the beginning seemed to be quite removed from the physicists' standard research dogmas.

  15. Mapping dynamical systems onto complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, E. P.; Cajueiro, D. O.; Andrade, R. F. S.

    2007-08-01

    The objective of this study is to design a procedure to characterize chaotic dynamical systems, in which they are mapped onto a complex network. The nodes represent the regions of space visited by the system, while the edges represent the transitions between these regions. Parameters developed to quantify the properties of complex networks, including those related to higher order neighbourhoods, are used in the analysis. The methodology is tested on the logistic map, focusing on the onset of chaos and chaotic regimes. The corresponding networks were found to have distinct features that are associated with the particular type of dynamics that generated them.

  16. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2015-06-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a "system" in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states.

  17. New England: Hudson River

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2014-05-15

    article title:  New York and Southern New England     View Larger Image ... Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) nadir-camera image includes New York City, site of the Yankees and the National League's Mets. The Yankees ...

  18. Multiphase reliability analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azam, Mohammad S.; Tu, Fang; Pattipati, Krishna R.

    2003-08-01

    Modern industrial systems assume different configurations to accomplish multiple objectives during different phases of operation, and the component parameters may also vary from one phase to the next. Consequently, reliability evaluation of complex multi-phased systems is a vital and challenging issue. Maximization of mission reliability of a multi-phase system via optimal asset selection is another key demand; incorporation of optimization issues adds to the complexities of reliability evaluation processes. Introduction of components having self-diagnostics and self-recovery capabilities, along with increased complexity and phase-dependent configuration variations in network architectures, requires new approaches for reliability evaluation. This paper considers the problem of evaluating the reliability of a complex multi-phased system with self-recovery/fault-protection options. The reliability analysis is based on a colored digraph (i.e., multi-functional) model that subsumes fault trees and digraphs as special cases. These models enable system designers to decide on system architecture modifications and to determine the optimum levels of redundancy. A sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach is employed to compute system reliability. We also formulated the problem of optimal asset selection in a multi-phase system as one of maximizing the probability of mission success under random load profiles on components. Different methods (e.g., ordinal optimization, robust design, and nonparametric statistical testing) are explored to solve the problem. The resulting analytical expressions and the software tool are demonstrated on a generic programmable software-controlled switchgear, a data bus controller system and a multi-phase mission involving helicopters.

  19. Constructing minimal models for complex system dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barzel, Baruch; Liu, Yang-Yu; Barabási, Albert-László

    2015-05-01

    One of the strengths of statistical physics is the ability to reduce macroscopic observations into microscopic models, offering a mechanistic description of a system's dynamics. This paradigm, rooted in Boltzmann's gas theory, has found applications from magnetic phenomena to subcellular processes and epidemic spreading. Yet, each of these advances were the result of decades of meticulous model building and validation, which are impossible to replicate in most complex biological, social or technological systems that lack accurate microscopic models. Here we develop a method to infer the microscopic dynamics of a complex system from observations of its response to external perturbations, allowing us to construct the most general class of nonlinear pairwise dynamics that are guaranteed to recover the observed behaviour. The result, which we test against both numerical and empirical data, is an effective dynamic model that can predict the system's behaviour and provide crucial insights into its inner workings.

  20. Managing interoperability and complexity in health systems.

    PubMed

    Bouamrane, M-M; Tao, C; Sarkar, I N

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, we have witnessed substantial progress in the use of clinical informatics systems to support clinicians during episodes of care, manage specialised domain knowledge, perform complex clinical data analysis and improve the management of health organisations' resources. However, the vision of fully integrated health information eco-systems, which provide relevant information and useful knowledge at the point-of-care, remains elusive. This journal Focus Theme reviews some of the enduring challenges of interoperability and complexity in clinical informatics systems. Furthermore, a range of approaches are proposed in order to address, harness and resolve some of the many remaining issues towards a greater integration of health information systems and extraction of useful or new knowledge from heterogeneous electronic data repositories. PMID:25579862

  1. Resource Letter CS-1: Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M. E. J.

    2011-08-01

    A complex system is a system composed of many interacting parts, often called agents, which displays collective behavior that does not follow trivially from the behaviors of the individual parts. Examples include condensed-matter systems, ecosystems, stock markets and economies, biological evolution, and indeed the whole of human society. Substantial progress has been made in the quantitative understanding of complex systems, particularly since the 1980s, using a combination of basic theory, much of it derived from physics, and computer simulation. The subject is a broad one, drawing on techniques and ideas from a wide range of areas. Here, I give a selection of introductory resources, ranging from classic papers to recent books and reviews.

  2. Energy Consumption Monitoring System for Large Complexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jorge, André; Guerreiro, João; Pereira, Pedro; Martins, João; Gomes, Luís

    This paper describes the development of an open source system for monitoring and data acquisition of several energy analyzers. The developed system is based on a computer with Internet/Intranet connection by means of RS485 using Modbus RTU as communication protocol. The monitoring/metering system was developed for large building complexes and was validated in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia University campus. The system considers two distinct applications. The first one allows the user to verify, in real time, the energy consumption of any department in the complex, produce load diagrams, tables and print, email or save all available data. The second application keeps records of active/reactive energy consumption in order to verify the existence of some anomalous situation, and also monthly charge energy consumption to each corresponding department.

  3. Language Teacher Cognitions: Complex Dynamic Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feryok, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Language teacher cognition research is a growing field. In recent years several features of language teacher cognitions have been noted: they can be complex, ranging over a number of different subjects; they can be dynamic, changing over time and under different influences; and they can be systems, forming unified and cohesive personal or…

  4. Engineering Education as a Complex System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating…

  5. Designing To Learn about Complex Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hmelo, Cindy E.; Holton, Douglas L.; Kolodner, Janet L.

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the presence of complex structural, behavioral, and functional relations to understanding. Reports on a design experiment in which 6th grade children learned about the human respiratory system by designing artificial lungs and building partial working models. Makes suggestions for successful learning from design activities. (Contains 44…

  6. Promoting Transfer by Grounding Complex Systems Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Wilensky, Uri

    2008-01-01

    Understanding scientific phenomena in terms of complex systems principles is both scientifically and pedagogically important. Situations from different disciplines of science are often governed by the same principle, and so promoting knowledge transfer across disciplines makes valuable cross-fertilization and scientific unification possible.…

  7. Gaia as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, Timothy M; van Oijen, Marcel

    2002-01-01

    We define the Gaia system of life and its environment on Earth, review the status of the Gaia theory, introduce potentially relevant concepts from complexity theory, then try to apply them to Gaia. We consider whether Gaia is a complex adaptive system (CAS) in terms of its behaviour and suggest that the system is self-organizing but does not reside in a critical state. Gaia has supported abundant life for most of the last 3.8 Gyr. Large perturbations have occasionally suppressed life but the system has always recovered without losing the capacity for large-scale free energy capture and recycling of essential elements. To illustrate how complexity theory can help us understand the emergence of planetary-scale order, we present a simple cellular automata (CA) model of the imaginary planet Daisyworld. This exhibits emergent self-regulation as a consequence of feedback coupling between life and its environment. Local spatial interaction, which was absent from the original model, can destabilize the system by generating bifurcation regimes. Variation and natural selection tend to remove this instability. With mutation in the model system, it exhibits self-organizing adaptive behaviour in its response to forcing. We close by suggesting how artificial life ('Alife') techniques may enable more comprehensive feasibility tests of Gaia. PMID:12079529

  8. Dependency visualization for complex system understanding

    SciTech Connect

    Smart, J.A.C.

    1994-09-01

    With the volume of software in production use dramatically increasing, the importance of software maintenance has become strikingly apparent. Techniques now sought and developed for reverse engineering and design extraction and recovery. At present, numerous commercial products and research tools exist which are capable of visualizing a variety of programming languages and software constructs. The list of new tools and services continues to grow rapidly. Although the scope of the existing commercial and academic product set is quite broad, these tools still share a common underlying problem. The ability of each tool to visually organize object representations is increasingly impaired as the number of components and component dependencies within systems increases. Regardless of how objects are defined, complex ``spaghetti`` networks result in nearly all large system cases. While this problem is immediately apparent in modem systems analysis involving large software implementations, it is not new. As will be discussed in Chapter 2, related problems involving the theory of graphs were identified long ago. This important theoretical foundation provides a useful vehicle for representing and analyzing complex system structures. While the utility of directed graph based concepts in software tool design has been demonstrated in literature, these tools still lack the capabilities necessary for large system comprehension. This foundation must therefore be expanded with new orgnizational and visualization constructs necessary to meet this challenge. This dissertation addresses this need by constructing a conceptual model and a set of methods for interactively exploring, organizing, and understanding the structure of complex software systems.

  9. Membrane Tethering Complexes in the Endosomal System

    PubMed Central

    Spang, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Vesicles that are generated by endocytic events at the plasma membrane are destined to early endosomes. A prerequisite for proper fusion is the tethering of two membrane entities. Tethering of vesicles to early endosomes is mediated by the class C core vacuole/endosome tethering (CORVET) complex, while fusion of late endosomes with lysosomes depends on the homotypic fusion and vacuole protein sorting (HOPS) complex. Recycling through the trans-Golgi network (TGN) and to the plasma membrane is facilitated by the Golgi associated retrograde protein (GARP) and endosome-associated recycling protein (EARP) complexes, respectively. However, there are other tethering functions in the endosomal system as there are multiple pathways through which proteins can be delivered from endosomes to either the TGN or the plasma membrane. Furthermore, proteins that may be part of novel tethering complexes have been recently identified. Thus, it is likely that more tethering factors exist. In this review, I will provide an overview of different tethering complexes of the endosomal system and discuss how they may provide specificity in membrane traffic. PMID:27243003

  10. Causes of catastrophic failure in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, David A.

    2010-08-01

    Root causes of mission critical failures and major cost and schedule overruns in complex systems and programs are studied through the post-mortem analyses compiled for several examples, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle accidents, and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. The roles of organizational complexity, cognitive biases in decision making, the display of quantitative data, and cost and schedule pressure are all considered. Recommendations for mitigating the risk of similar failures in future programs are also provided.

  11. A Multifaceted Mathematical Approach for Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Alexander, F.; Anitescu, M.; Bell, J.; Brown, D.; Ferris, M.; Luskin, M.; Mehrotra, S.; Moser, B.; Pinar, A.; Tartakovsky, A.; Willcox, K.; Wright, S.; Zavala, V.

    2012-03-07

    Applied mathematics has an important role to play in developing the tools needed for the analysis, simulation, and optimization of complex problems. These efforts require the development of the mathematical foundations for scientific discovery, engineering design, and risk analysis based on a sound integrated approach for the understanding of complex systems. However, maximizing the impact of applied mathematics on these challenges requires a novel perspective on approaching the mathematical enterprise. Previous reports that have surveyed the DOE's research needs in applied mathematics have played a key role in defining research directions with the community. Although these reports have had significant impact, accurately assessing current research needs requires an evaluation of today's challenges against the backdrop of recent advances in applied mathematics and computing. To address these needs, the DOE Applied Mathematics Program sponsored a Workshop for Mathematics for the Analysis, Simulation and Optimization of Complex Systems on September 13-14, 2011. The workshop had approximately 50 participants from both the national labs and academia. The goal of the workshop was to identify new research areas in applied mathematics that will complement and enhance the existing DOE ASCR Applied Mathematics Program efforts that are needed to address problems associated with complex systems. This report describes recommendations from the workshop and subsequent analysis of the workshop findings by the organizing committee.

  12. Systems genetics approaches to understand complex traits

    PubMed Central

    Civelek, Mete; Lusis, Aldons J.

    2014-01-01

    Systems genetics is an approach to understand the flow of biological information that underlies complex traits. It uses a range of experimental and statistical methods to quantitate and integrate intermediate phenotypes, such as transcript, protein or metabolite levels, in populations that vary for traits of interest. Systems genetics studies have provided the first global view of the molecular architecture of complex traits and are useful for the identification of genes, pathways and networks that underlie common human diseases. Given the urgent need to understand how the thousands of loci that have been identified in genome-wide association studies contribute to disease susceptibility, systems genetics is likely to become an increasingly important approach to understanding both biology and disease. PMID:24296534

  13. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the 'thinnest site' of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most 'dangerous' direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  14. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  15. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  16. Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy; Cavallo, Peter; Dash, Sanford

    2007-01-01

    A numerical framework for analysis of complex valve systems supports testing of propulsive systems by simulating key valve and control system components in the test loop. In particular, it is designed to enhance the analysis capability in terms of identifying system transients and quantifying the valve response to these transients. This system has analysis capability for simulating valve motion in complex systems operating in diverse flow regimes ranging from compressible gases to cryogenic liquids. A key feature is the hybrid, unstructured framework with sub-models for grid movement and phase change including cryogenic cavitations. The multi-element unstructured framework offers improved predictions of valve performance characteristics under steady conditions for structurally complex valves such as pressure regulator valve. Unsteady simulations of valve motion using this computational approach have been carried out for various valves in operation at Stennis Space Center such as the split-body valve and the 10-in. (approx.25.4-cm) LOX (liquid oxygen) valve and the 4-in. (approx.10 cm) Y-pattern valve (liquid nitrogen). Such simulations make use of variable grid topologies, thereby permitting solution accuracy and resolving important flow physics in the seat region of the moving valve. An advantage to this software includes possible reduction in testing costs incurred due to disruptions relating to unexpected flow transients or functioning of valve/flow control systems. Prediction of the flow anomalies leading to system vibrations, flow resonance, and valve stall can help in valve scheduling and significantly reduce the need for activation tests. This framework has been evaluated for its ability to predict performance metrics like flow coefficient for cavitating venturis and valve coefficient curves, and could be a valuable tool in predicting and understanding anomalous behavior of system components at rocket propulsion testing and design sites.

  17. Engineering education as a complex system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-12-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating problem-solving orientations that emerge within students' thinking as they progress through an engineering curriculum. It is proposed that the traditional engineering education model, while analytically rigorous, is characterised by properties that, although necessary, are insufficient for preparing students to address complex issues of the twenty-first century. A Synthesis and Design Studio model for engineering education is proposed, which maintains the necessary rigor of analysis within a uniquely complex yet sufficiently structured learning environment.

  18. Automated Design of Complex Dynamic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Hermans, Michiel; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Bienstman, Peter; Dambre, Joni

    2014-01-01

    Several fields of study are concerned with uniting the concept of computation with that of the design of physical systems. For example, a recent trend in robotics is to design robots in such a way that they require a minimal control effort. Another example is found in the domain of photonics, where recent efforts try to benefit directly from the complex nonlinear dynamics to achieve more efficient signal processing. The underlying goal of these and similar research efforts is to internalize a large part of the necessary computations within the physical system itself by exploiting its inherent non-linear dynamics. This, however, often requires the optimization of large numbers of system parameters, related to both the system's structure as well as its material properties. In addition, many of these parameters are subject to fabrication variability or to variations through time. In this paper we apply a machine learning algorithm to optimize physical dynamic systems. We show that such algorithms, which are normally applied on abstract computational entities, can be extended to the field of differential equations and used to optimize an associated set of parameters which determine their behavior. We show that machine learning training methodologies are highly useful in designing robust systems, and we provide a set of both simple and complex examples using models of physical dynamical systems. Interestingly, the derived optimization method is intimately related to direct collocation a method known in the field of optimal control. Our work suggests that the application domains of both machine learning and optimal control have a largely unexplored overlapping area which envelopes a novel design methodology of smart and highly complex physical systems. PMID:24497969

  19. Multifractal Resilience Metrics for Complex Systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schertzer, D. J.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    The term resilience has become extremely fashionable, especially for complex systems, whereas corresponding operational definitions have remained rather elusive (Carpenter et al. 2001). More precisely, the resilience assessment of man-made systems (from nuclear plants to cities) to geophysical extremes require mathematically defined resilience metrics based on some conceptual definition, e.g. the often cited definition of "ecological resilience" (Hollings 1973): "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks". Surprisingly, whereas it was acknowledged by Folke et al. (2010) that "multiscale resilience is fundamental for understanding the interplay between persistence and change, adaptability and transformability", the relation between resilience and scaling has not been so much questioned, see however Peterson (2000). We argue that is rather indispensable to go well beyond the attractor approach (Pimm and Lawton 1977; Collings and Wollkind 1990;), as well as extensions (Martin et al., 2011) into the framework of the viability theory (Aubin 1991; Aubin et al. 2011). Indeed, both are rather limited to systems that are complex only in time. Scale symmetries are indeed indispensable to reduce the space-time complexity by defining scale independent observables, which are the singularities of the original, scale dependent fields. These singularities enable to define across-scale resilience, instead of resilience at a given scale.

  20. Controlling Complex Systems and Developing Dynamic Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avizienis, Audrius Victor

    In complex systems, control and understanding become intertwined. Following Ilya Prigogine, we define complex systems as having control parameters which mediate transitions between distinct modes of dynamical behavior. From this perspective, determining the nature of control parameters and demonstrating the associated dynamical phase transitions are practically equivalent and fundamental to engaging with complexity. In the first part of this work, a control parameter is determined for a non-equilibrium electrochemical system by studying a transition in the morphology of structures produced by an electroless deposition reaction. Specifically, changing the size of copper posts used as the substrate for growing metallic silver structures by the reduction of Ag+ from solution under diffusion-limited reaction conditions causes a dynamical phase transition in the crystal growth process. For Cu posts with edge lengths on the order of one micron, local forces promoting anisotropic growth predominate, and the reaction produces interconnected networks of Ag nanowires. As the post size is increased above 10 microns, the local interfacial growth reaction dynamics couple with the macroscopic diffusion field, leading to spatially propagating instabilities in the electrochemical potential which induce periodic branching during crystal growth, producing dendritic deposits. This result is interesting both as an example of control and understanding in a complex system, and as a useful combination of top-down lithography with bottom-up electrochemical self-assembly. The second part of this work focuses on the technological development of devices fabricated using this non-equilibrium electrochemical process, towards a goal of integrating a complex network as a dynamic functional component in a neuromorphic computing device. Self-assembled networks of silver nanowires were reacted with sulfur to produce interfacial "atomic switches": silver-silver sulfide junctions, which exhibit

  1. Synchronization in node of complex networks consist of complex chaotic system

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-jun; Liu, Hong-jun; Li, Yan-hui

    2014-07-15

    A new synchronization method is investigated for node of complex networks consists of complex chaotic system. When complex networks realize synchronization, different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function by a designed complex feedback controller. This paper change synchronization scaling function from real field to complex field for synchronization in node of complex networks with complex chaotic system. Synchronization in constant delay and time-varying coupling delay complex networks are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Complex Failure Forewarning System - DHS Conference Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain, aging bridges, is used to explain the Complex Structure Failure Forewarning System. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  3. Analysis of complex systems using neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E. . Dept. of Nuclear Engineering Oak Ridge National Lab., TN )

    1992-01-01

    The application of neural networks, alone or in conjunction with other advanced technologies (expert systems, fuzzy logic, and/or genetic algorithms), to some of the problems of complex engineering systems has the potential to enhance the safety, reliability, and operability of these systems. Typically, the measured variables from the systems are analog variables that must be sampled and normalized to expected peak values before they are introduced into neural networks. Often data must be processed to put it into a form more acceptable to the neural network (e.g., a fast Fourier transformation of the time-series data to produce a spectral plot of the data). Specific applications described include: (1) Diagnostics: State of the Plant (2) Hybrid System for Transient Identification, (3) Sensor Validation, (4) Plant-Wide Monitoring, (5) Monitoring of Performance and Efficiency, and (6) Analysis of Vibrations. Although specific examples described deal with nuclear power plants or their subsystems, the techniques described can be applied to a wide variety of complex engineering systems.

  4. Analysis of complex systems using neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E. |

    1992-12-31

    The application of neural networks, alone or in conjunction with other advanced technologies (expert systems, fuzzy logic, and/or genetic algorithms), to some of the problems of complex engineering systems has the potential to enhance the safety, reliability, and operability of these systems. Typically, the measured variables from the systems are analog variables that must be sampled and normalized to expected peak values before they are introduced into neural networks. Often data must be processed to put it into a form more acceptable to the neural network (e.g., a fast Fourier transformation of the time-series data to produce a spectral plot of the data). Specific applications described include: (1) Diagnostics: State of the Plant (2) Hybrid System for Transient Identification, (3) Sensor Validation, (4) Plant-Wide Monitoring, (5) Monitoring of Performance and Efficiency, and (6) Analysis of Vibrations. Although specific examples described deal with nuclear power plants or their subsystems, the techniques described can be applied to a wide variety of complex engineering systems.

  5. Efficiently evaluate complex pressure relief systems

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.K.; Walker, A.G.

    1997-01-01

    This article will present the steps necessary to perform a comprehensive analysis of complex pressure relief systems. The goal is not to discuss detailed calculations for proper valve sizing and selection, but rather to analyze and verify existing system configurations. Sizing and selection have been covered in detail by the American Petroleum Institute (API) RP 520, API RP 521, various AIChE Design Institute for Emergency Relief Systems (DIERS) publications, and other sources. In their work with industry, the authors have noticed a tendency for some engineers to proceed with detailed calculations without first preparing an overall strategy and implementation plan to make sure that the calculations yield the desired results. They have seen detailed pressure relief system analyses costing hundreds of thousands of dollars which, for any number of reasons, are incorrect. The old adage GIGO (garbage in/garbage out) certainly applies to pressure relief system analysis. They will address the thought processes and actions necessary to correctly and efficiently evaluate complex pressure relief systems.

  6. Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. PMID:26678120

  7. Complex Engineered Systems: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mina, Ali A.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    Human history is often seen as an inexorable march towards greater complexity — in ideas, artifacts, social, political and economic systems, technology, and in the structure of life itself. While we do not have detailed knowledge of ancient times, it is reasonable to conclude that the average resident of New York City today faces a world of much greater complexity than the average denizen of Carthage or Tikal. A careful consideration of this change, however, suggests that most of it has occurred recently, and has been driven primarily by the emergence of technology as a force in human life. In the 4000 years separating the Indus Valley Civilization from 18th century Europe, human transportation evolved from the bullock cart to the hansom, and the methods of communication used by George Washington did not differ significantly from those used by Alexander or Rameses. The world has moved radically towards greater complexity in the last two centuries. We have moved from buggies and letter couriers to airplanes and the Internet — an increase in capacity, and through its diversity also in complexity, orders of magnitude greater than that accumulated through the rest of human history. In addition to creating iconic artifacts — the airplane, the car, the computer, the television, etc. — this change has had a profound effect on the scope of experience by creating massive, connected and multiultra- level systems — traffic networks, power grids, markets, multinational corporations — that defy analytical understanding and seem to have a life of their own. This is where complexity truly enters our lives.

  8. Complexity for Survival of Living Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    2009-01-01

    A logical connection between the survivability of living systems and the complexity of their behavior (equivalently, mental complexity) has been established. This connection is an important intermediate result of continuing research on mathematical models that could constitute a unified representation of the evolution of both living and non-living systems. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO- 21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; and Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO- 30634) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72. As used here, living systems is synonymous with active systems and intelligent systems. The quoted terms can signify artificial agents (e.g., suitably programmed computers) or natural biological systems ranging from single-cell organisms at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. One of the requirements that must be satisfied in mathematical modeling of living systems is reconciliation of evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics. In the approach followed in this research, this reconciliation is effected by means of a model, inspired partly by quantum mechanics, in which the quantum potential is replaced with an information potential. The model captures the most fundamental property of life - the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The model incorporates the equations of classical dynamics, including Newton s equations of motion and equations for random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces. The equations of classical dynamics are coupled with corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces that are

  9. Network representations of immune system complexity.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A; Germain, Ronald N; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multiscale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular, and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single-cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning, and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather nonlinear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multiscale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels, while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating 'omics' and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular- and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  10. Network representations of immune system complexity

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A.; Germain, Ronald N.; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multi-scale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather non-linear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multi-scale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating ‘omics’ and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  11. Integrating management tools and concepts to develop an estuarine planning support system: A case study of the Humber Estuary, Eastern England.

    PubMed

    Lonsdale, Jemma-Anne; Weston, Keith; Barnard, Steve; Boyes, Suzanne J; Elliott, Michael

    2015-11-15

    Estuaries are important because of their multiple uses and users which often makes them challenging to manage since management must strike a balance between the needs of users, the estuaries' ecological and economic value and the context of multiple legislative drivers. To facilitate management we have therefore developed an Estuarine Planning Support System (EPSS) framework using the Humber Estuary, Eastern England, as a case study which integrates the current legislation tools and concepts. This integrated EPSS framework is an improvement on previous approaches for assessing cumulative impacts as it takes into account legislative drivers, management tools and other mechanisms for controlling plans/projects specific to the estuary. It therefore enables managers and users to assess and address both the current state and the way in which a new industrial, port or urban development could impact an estuary in an accessible and understandable framework. PMID:26342391

  12. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  13. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  14. Confusion in the Ranks: How Good Are England's Schools?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smithers, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how well English education performs compared with other countries is a valuable exercise, particularly because the information can help England and other countries learn from successful systems. The most recent international league tables of pupil performance differ considerably. England languishes well down the list in PISA 2009,…

  15. 78 FR 29116 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-17

    ...-8238. Council address: New England Fishery Management Council, 50 Water Street, Mill 2, Newburyport, MA... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0645-XC688 New England Fishery Management Council... Council's (Council) Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)/Enforcement will meet jointly with the Advisory...

  16. Policy for Language Education in England: Does Less Mean More?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Linda

    2004-01-01

    This paper details major and significant developments in the teaching of English to pupils aged 5-16 years in the school system in England, the years of compulsory education. To begin with definitions of terms. There are four aspects of language education provision that pertain in England: (1) the teaching of English as the mother tongue; (2) the…

  17. The Neo-Liberalisation Policy Agenda and Its Consequences for Education in England: A Focus on Resistance Now and Possibilities for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maisuria, Alpesh

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explores the way that neo-liberalism is becoming more entrenched in the fabric of the education system in England. The article begins by setting out a very brief historical trajectory of neo-liberalism to provide a working definition of a complex and disarticulated socio-political and economic system. In part two, this…

  18. New England Lakes & Ponds Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England Lakes and Ponds Project provides a consistent and first time comprehensive assessment of the ecological and water quality condition of lakes and ponds across the New England region. The project is being conducted by EPA along with the New England Interstate Water...

  19. Disproportionality in Special Needs Education in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, Alan; Gallannaugh, Frances

    2008-01-01

    Unlike the United States, England does not have a special education system based on the identification of students as having disabilities of one or another type. Instead, the English system enables help to be provided to students on the basis of assessments of their individual "special educational needs." The authors consider the implications of…

  20. Simulating Complex Window Systems using BSDF Data

    SciTech Connect

    Konstantoglou, Maria; Jonsson, Jacob; Lee, Eleanor

    2009-06-22

    Nowadays, virtual models are commonly used to evaluate the performance of conventional window systems. Complex fenestration systems can be difficult to simulate accurately not only because of their geometry but also because of their optical properties that scatter light in an unpredictable manner. Bi-directional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF) have recently been developed based on a mixture of measurements and modelling to characterize the optics of such systems. This paper describes the workflow needed to create then use these BSDF datasets in the Radiance lighting simulation software. Limited comparisons are made between visualizations produced using the standard ray-tracing method, the BSDF method, and that taken in a full-scale outdoor mockup.

  1. Modular interdependency in complex dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Watson, Richard A; Pollack, Jordan B

    2005-01-01

    Herbert A. Simon's characterization of modularity in dynamical systems describes subsystems as having dynamics that are approximately independent of those of other subsystems (in the short term). This fits with the general intuition that modules must, by definition, be approximately independent. In the evolution of complex systems, such modularity may enable subsystems to be modified and adapted independently of other subsystems, whereas in a nonmodular system, modifications to one part of the system may result in deleterious side effects elsewhere in the system. But this notion of modularity and its effect on evolvability is not well quantified and is rather simplistic. In particular, modularity need not imply that intermodule dependences are weak or unimportant. In dynamical systems this is acknowledged by Simon's suggestion that, in the long term, the dynamical behaviors of subsystems do interact with one another, albeit in an "aggregate" manner--but this kind of intermodule interaction is omitted in models of modularity for evolvability. In this brief discussion we seek to unify notions of modularity in dynamical systems with notions of how modularity affects evolvability. This leads to a quantifiable measure of modularity and a different understanding of its effect on evolvability. PMID:16197673

  2. Automated Diagnosis and Control of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurien, James; Plaunt, Christian; Cannon, Howard; Shirley, Mark; Taylor, Will; Nayak, P.; Hudson, Benoit; Bachmann, Andrew; Brownston, Lee; Hayden, Sandra; Wragg, Steve; Millar, William; Pepke, Shirley; Christa, Scott; Garcia, Ray

    2007-01-01

    Livingstone2 is a reusable, artificial intelligence (AI) software system designed to assist spacecraft, life support systems, chemical plants, or other complex systems by operating with minimal human supervision, even in the face of hardware failures or unexpected events. The software diagnoses the current state of the spacecraft or other system, and recommends commands or repair actions that will allow the system to continue operation. Livingstone2 is an enhancement of the Livingstone diagnosis system that was flight-tested onboard the Deep Space One spacecraft in 1999. This version tracks multiple diagnostic hypotheses, rather than just a single hypothesis as in the previous version. It is also able to revise diagnostic decisions made in the past when additional observations become available. In such cases, Livingstone might arrive at an incorrect hypothesis. Re-architecting and re-implementing the system in C++ has increased performance. Usability has been improved by creating a set of development tools that is closely integrated with the Livingstone2 engine. In addition to the core diagnosis engine, Livingstone2 includes a compiler that translates diagnostic models written in a Java-like language into Livingstone2's language, and a broad set of graphical tools for model development.

  3. Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System

    SciTech Connect

    Nobre, Carlos; Brasseur, Guy P.; Shapiro, Melvyn; Lahsen, Myanna; Brunet, Gilbert; Busalacchi, Antonio; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Seitzinger, Sybil; Noone, Kevin; Ometto, Jean P.

    2010-10-01

    This paper highlights the role of the Earth-system biosphere and illustrates the complex: biosphere-atmosphere interactions in the Amazon Basin, changes in nitrogen cycling, ocean chemistry, and land use. It introduces three important requirements for accelerating the development and use of Earth system information. The first requirement is to develop Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for multi-scale physical, chemical and biological processes, including their interactions in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system. The development of these models requires partnerships between academia, national research centers, and operational prediction facilities, and builds upon accomplishments in weather and climate predictions. They will highlight the regional aspects of global change, and include modules for water system, agriculture, forestry, energy, air quality, health, etc. The second requirement is to model the interactions between humans and the weather-climate-biogeochemical system. The third requirement is to introduce novel methodologies to account for societal drivers, impacts and feedbacks. This is a challenging endeavor requiring creative solutions and some compromising because human behavior cannot be fully represented within the framework of present-day physical prediction systems.

  4. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaotic and Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infeld, E.; Zelazny, R.; Galkowski, A.

    2011-04-01

    Part I. Dynamic Systems Bifurcation Theory and Chaos: 1. Chaos in random dynamical systems V. M. Gunldach; 2. Controlling chaos using embedded unstable periodic orbits: the problem of optimal periodic orbits B. R. Hunt and E. Ott; 3. Chaotic tracer dynamics in open hydrodynamical flows G. Karolyi, A. Pentek, T. Tel and Z. Toroczkai; 4. Homoclinic chaos L. P. Shilnikov; Part II. Spatially Extended Systems: 5. Hydrodynamics of relativistic probability flows I. Bialynicki-Birula; 6. Waves in ionic reaction-diffusion-migration systems P. Hasal, V. Nevoral, I. Schreiber, H. Sevcikova, D. Snita, and M. Marek; 7. Anomalous scaling in turbulence: a field theoretical approach V. Lvov and I. Procaccia; 8. Abelian sandpile cellular automata M. Markosova; 9. Transport in an incompletely chaotic magnetic field F. Spineanu; Part III. Dynamical Chaos Quantum Physics and Foundations Of Statistical Mechanics: 10. Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and ergodic theory L. A. Bunimovich; 11. Pseudochaos in statistical physics B. Chirikov; 12. Foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics J. P. Dougherty; 13. Thermomechanical particle simulations W. G. Hoover, H. A. Posch, C. H. Dellago, O. Kum, C. G. Hoover, A. J. De Groot and B. L. Holian; 14. Quantum dynamics on a Markov background and irreversibility B. Pavlov; 15. Time chaos and the laws of nature I. Prigogine and D. J. Driebe; 16. Evolutionary Q and cognitive systems: dynamic entropies and predictability of evolutionary processes W. Ebeling; 17. Spatiotemporal chaos information processing in neural networks H. Szu; 18. Phase transitions and learning in neural networks C. Van den Broeck; 19. Synthesis of chaos A. Vanecek and S. Celikovsky; 20. Computational complexity of continuous problems H. Wozniakowski; Part IV. Complex Systems As An Interface Between Natural Sciences and Environmental Social and Economic Sciences: 21. Stochastic differential geometry in finance studies V. G. Makhankov; Part V. Conference Banquet

  5. PREFACE: Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Bohr, Tomas; Rasmussen, Jens Juul; Leth Christiansen, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of patterns and structures under far-from-equilibrium conditions, turbulence, and related nonlinear dynamic phenomena in spatially extended systems have developed into one of the most exciting topics of modern science. Phenomena of this type arise in a wide variety of different fields, ranging from the development of chemical and biological patterns in reaction-diffusion systems over vortex formation in connection with chemical, optical, hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic turbulence to technical applications in connection with liquid crystal displays or pulse compression in optical communication systems. Lasers often show interesting patterns produced by self-focusing and other nonlinear phenomena, diffusion limited aggregation is known to generate fractal-like structures, and amazing struc- tures also arise in bacterial growth processes or when a droplet of an oil suspension of finely divided magnetic particles is subject to a magnetic field perpendicular to the surface of the cell in which it is contained. In September 1995 the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen was the venue of an International Conference on Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems. Organizers of the conference were the three Danish centers for nonlinear dynamics: The Center for Chaos and Turbulence Studies (CATS), located at the Niels Bohr Institute; the Center for Modeling, Nonlinear Dynamics and Irreversible Thermodynamics (MIDIT), located at the Technical University of Denmark, and the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Continuum Systems, located at the Risø National Laboratories. In the spirit of the successful NATO Advanced Research Workshops on Spatiotemporal Patterns in Nonequilibrium Systems of which the last was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico in 1993, the conference aimed at stimulating new ideas and providing a forum for the exchange of knowledge between leading practitioners of the field. With its 50 invited speakers and more than

  6. Characterization of fHbp, nhba (gna2132), nadA, porA, Sequence Type (ST), and Genomic Presence of IS1301 in Group B Meningococcal ST269 Clonal Complex Isolates from England and Wales▿

    PubMed Central

    Lucidarme, Jay; Comanducci, Maurizio; Findlow, Jamie; Gray, Stephen J.; Kaczmarski, Edward B.; Guiver, Malcolm; Kugelberg, Elisabeth; Vallely, Pamela J.; Oster, Philipp; Pizza, Mariagrazia; Bambini, Stefania; Muzzi, Alessandro; Tang, Christoph M.; Borrow, Ray

    2009-01-01

    Highly effective glycoconjugate vaccines exist against four of the five major pathogenic groups of meningococci: A, C, W-135, and Y. An equivalent vaccine against group B meningococci (menB) has remained elusive due to the poorly immunogenic capsular polysaccharide. A promising alternative, the investigational recombinant menB (rMenB)- outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine, contains fHBP, NHBA (previously GNA2132), NadA, and outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) from the New Zealand MeNZB vaccine. MenB currently accounts for 90% of meningococcal disease in England and Wales, where the multilocus sequence type (ST) 269 (ST269) clonal complex (cc269) has recently expanded to account for a third of menB cases. To assess the potential cc269 coverage of the rMenB-OMV vaccine, English and Welsh cc269 isolates from the past decade were genetically characterized with respect to fHBP, NHBA, and NadA. All of the isolates harbored fHbp and nhba alleles, while 98% of the cc269 isolates were devoid of nadA. Subvariant profiling of fHbp, nhba, and porA against STs revealed the presence of two broadly distinct and well-defined clusters of isolates, centered around ST269 and ST275, respectively. An additional molecular marker, insertion sequence IS1301, was found to be present in 100% and <2% of isolates of the respective clusters. On the basis of the genetic data, the potential rMenB-OMV coverage of cc269 in England and Wales is high (up to 100%) within both clusters. Expression studies and serum bactericidal antibody assays will serve to enhance predictions of coverage and will augment ongoing studies regarding the significance of IS1301 within the ST269 cluster. PMID:19759227

  7. Assessment Environment for Complex Systems Software Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2013-01-01

    This Software Guide (SG) describes the software developed to test the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems (AECS) by the West Virginia High Technology Consortium (WVHTC) Foundation's Mission Systems Group (MSG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). This software is referred to as the AECS Test Project throughout the remainder of this document. AECS provides a framework for developing, simulating, testing, and analyzing modern avionics systems within an Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA) architecture. The purpose of the AECS Test Project is twofold. First, it provides a means to test the AECS hardware and system developed by MSG. Second, it provides an example project upon which future AECS research may be based. This Software Guide fully describes building, installing, and executing the AECS Test Project as well as its architecture and design. The design of the AECS hardware is described in the AECS Hardware Guide. Instructions on how to configure, build and use the AECS are described in the User's Guide. Sample AECS software, developed by the WVHTC Foundation, is presented in the AECS Software Guide. The AECS Hardware Guide, AECS User's Guide, and AECS Software Guide are authored by MSG. The requirements set forth for AECS are presented in the Statement of Work for the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems authored by NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC). The intended audience for this document includes software engineers, hardware engineers, project managers, and quality assurance personnel from WVHTC Foundation (the suppliers of the software), NASA (the customer), and future researchers (users of the software). Readers are assumed to have general knowledge in the field of real-time, embedded computer software development.

  8. New Developments in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Early years education in England has undergone a number of radical changes in the last decade. More recently, a change in government after the 2010 UK general election has meant that early years practitioners have experienced a period of uncertainty and change in policy in line with the ambitions and philosophy of the new Conservative/Liberal…

  9. Melmark New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cancro, Lorraine

    2009-01-01

    This article features Melmark New England, a private, nonprofit, community based organization dedicated to serving children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorders, acquired brain injury, neurological diseases and disorders, and severe challenging behaviors. The Melmark parent corporation, a Pennsylvania based provider of services for those…

  10. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  11. Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

    2004-01-01

    The document contains the proceedings of the training workshop on Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems. The workshop was held at the Peninsula Higher Education Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 23 and 24, 2004. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University and NASA. Workshop attendees came from NASA, other government agencies, industry and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to a) provide broad overviews of the diverse activities related to innovative design of high-tech engineering systems; and b) identify training needs for future aerospace work force development in the design area. The format of the workshop included fifteen, half-hour overview-type presentations, a panel discussion on how to teach and train engineers in innovative design, and three exhibits by commercial vendors.

  12. Theoretical kinetic computations in complex reacting systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bittker, David A.

    1986-01-01

    Nasa Lewis' studies of complex reacting systems at high temperature are discussed. The changes which occur are the result of many different chemical reactions occurring at the same time. Both an experimental and a theoretical approach are needed to fully understand what happens in these systems. The latter approach is discussed. The differential equations which describe the chemical and thermodynamic changes are given. Their solution by numerical techniques using a detailed chemical mechanism is described. Several different comparisons of computed results with experimental measurements are also given. These include the computation of (1) species concentration profiles in batch and flow reactions, (2) rocket performance in nozzle expansions, and (3) pressure versus time profiles in hydrocarbon ignition processes. The examples illustrate the use of detailed kinetic computations to elucidate a chemical mechanism and to compute practical quantities such as rocket performance, ignition delay times, and ignition lengths in flow processes.

  13. Topological analysis of complexity in multiagent systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaid, Nicole; Bollt, Erik; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2012-04-01

    Social organisms at every level of evolutionary complexity live in groups, such as fish schools, locust swarms, and bird flocks. The complex exchange of multifaceted information across group members may result in a spectrum of salient spatiotemporal patterns characterizing collective behaviors. While instances of collective behavior in animal groups are readily identifiable by trained and untrained observers, a working definition to distinguish these patterns from raw data is not yet established. In this work, we define collective behavior as a manifestation of low-dimensional manifolds in the group motion and we quantify the complexity of such behaviors through the dimensionality of these structures. We demonstrate this definition using the ISOMAP algorithm, a data-driven machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction originally formulated in the context of image processing. We apply the ISOMAP algorithm to data from an interacting self-propelled particle model with additive noise, whose parameters are selected to exhibit different behavioral modalities, and from a video of a live fish school. Based on simulations of such model, we find that increasing noise in the system of particles corresponds to increasing the dimensionality of the structures underlying their motion. These low-dimensional structures are absent in simulations where particles do not interact. Applying the ISOMAP algorithm to fish school data, we identify similar low-dimensional structures, which may act as quantitative evidence for order inherent in collective behavior of animal groups. These results offer an unambiguous method for measuring order in data from large-scale biological systems and confirm the emergence of collective behavior in an applicable mathematical model, thus demonstrating that such models are capable of capturing phenomena observed in animal groups.

  14. Alarm system for a nuclear control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1994-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  15. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  16. Automatic restart of complex irrigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, H.D.; Alcock, R.; DeBoer, D.W.; Olson, D.I. . Dept. of Agricultural Engineering)

    1992-05-01

    Automatic restart of irrigation systems under load management has the potential to maximize pumping time during off-peak hours. Existing automation technology ranges from time delay relays to more sophisticated control using computers together with weather data to optimize irrigation practices. Centrifugal pumps and water hammer concerns prevent automatic restart of common but often complex irrigation systems in South Dakota. The irrigator must manually prime the pump and control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Methods to prime centrifugal pumps and control water hammer facilitate automatic restart after load management is released. Seven priming methods and three water hammer control methods were investigated. A sump pump and small vacuum pump were used to test two automatic prime and restart systems in the laboratory. A variable frequency phase converter was also used to automatically control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Economical methods to safely prime and restart centrifugal pumps were discussed. The water hammer control methods safely pressurize the pipeline but require a higher initial investment. The automatic restart systems can be used to safely restart centrifugal pumps and control water hammer after load management is released. Based upon laboratory research and a technical review of available restart components, a computer software program was developed. The program assists customers in evaluating various restart options for automatic restarting of electric irrigation pumps. For further information on the software program, contact the South Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Engineering.

  17. Complex flows in granular and quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera, Mark Richard

    In this thesis we investigate three problems involving complex flows in granular and quantum systems. (a) We first study the dynamics of granular particles in a split-bottom shear cell experiment. We utilize network theory to quantify the dynamics of the granular system at the mesoscopic scale. We find an apparent phase transition in the formation of a giant component of broken links as a function of applied shear. These results are compared to a numerical model where breakages are based on the amount of local stretching in the granular pile. (b) Moving to quantum mechanical systems, we study revival and echo phenomena in systems of anharmonically confined atoms, and find a novel phenomena we call the "pre-revival echo". We study the effect of size and symmetry of the perturbations on the various echoes and revivals, and form a perturbative model to describe the phenomena. We then model the effect of interactions using the Gross-Pitaevskii Equation and study interactions' effect on the revivals. (c) Lastly, we continue to study the effect of interactions on particles in weakly anharmonic traps. We numerically observe a "dynamical localization" phenomena in the presence of both anharmonicity and interactions. States may remain localized or become spread out in the potential depending on the strength and sign of the anharmonicity and interactions. We formulate a model for this phenomena in terms of a classical phase space.

  18. Orbital Architectures of Dynamically Complex Exoplanet Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Benjamin E.

    2015-01-01

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. We develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) to tackle these difficult aspects of data analysis. We apply RUN DMC to two classic multi-planet systems from radial velocity surveys, 55 Cancri and GJ 876. For 55 Cancri, we find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet's orbit to cross the stellar surface. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50±610 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. For GJ 876, we can meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital architecture of all the planets based on the radial velocity data alone. By demanding orbital stability, we find the resonant planets have low mutual inclinations (Φ) so they must be roughly coplanar (Φcb = 1.41±0.620.57 degrees and Φbe = 3.87±1.991.86 degrees). The three-dimensional Laplace argument librates with an amplitude of 50.5±7.910.0 degrees, indicating significant past disk migration and ensuring long-term stability. These empirically derived models will provide new challenges for planet formation models and motivate the need for more sophisticated algorithms to analyze exoplanet data.

  19. Empirical and theoretical analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guannan

    This thesis is an interdisciplinary work under the heading of complexity science which focuses on an arguably common "hard" problem across physics, finance and biology [1], to quantify and mimic the macroscopic "emergent phenomenon" in large-scale systems consisting of many interacting "particles" governed by microscopic rules. In contrast to traditional statistical physics, we are interested in systems whose dynamics are subject to feedback, evolution, adaption, openness, etc. Global financial markets, like the stock market and currency market, are ideal candidate systems for such a complexity study: there exists a vast amount of accurate data, which is the aggregate output of many autonomous agents continuously competing with each other. We started by examining the ultrafast "mini flash crash (MFC)" events in the US stock market. An abrupt system-wide composition transition from a mixed human machine phase to a new all-machine phase is uncovered, and a novel theory developed to explain this observation. Then in the study of FX market, we found an unexpected variation in the synchronicity of price changes in different market subsections as a function of the overall trading activity. Several survival models have been tested in analyzing the distribution of waiting times to the next price change. In the region of long waiting-times, the distribution for each currency pair exhibits a power law with exponent in the vicinity of 3.5. By contrast, for short waiting times only, the market activity can be mimicked by the fluctuations emerging from a finite resource competition model containing multiple agents with limited rationality (so called El Farol Model). Switching to the biomedical domain, we present a minimal mathematical model built around a co-evolving resource network and cell population, yielding good agreement with primary tumors in mice experiment and with clinical metastasis data. In the quest to understand contagion phenomena in systems where social group

  20. Geomorphology of New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Denny, C.S.

    1982-01-01

    Widely scattered terrestrial deposits of Cretaceous or Tertiary age and extensive nearshore and fluvial Coastal Plain deposits now largely beneath the sea indicate that the New England region has been above sea level during and since the Late Cretaceous. Estimates of rates of erosion based on sediment load in rivers and on volume of sediments in the Coastal Plain suggest that if the New England highlands had not been uplifted in the Miocene, the area would now be largely a lowland. If the estimated rates of erosion and uplift are of the right order of magnitude, then it is extremely unlikely that any part of the present landscape dates back before Miocene time. The only exception would be lowlands eroded in the early Mesozoic, later buried beneath Mesozoic and Cenozoic deposits, and exhumed by stream and glacial erosion during the later Cenozoic. Many of the rocks in the New England highlands are similar to those that underlie the Piedmont province in the central and southern Appalachians, where the relief over large areas is much less than in the highlands of New England. These comparisons suggest that the New England highlands have been upwarped in late Cenozoic time. The uplift took place in the Miocene and may have continued into the Quaternary. The New England landscape is primarily controlled by the underlying bedrock. Erosion and deposition during the Quaternary, related in large part to glaciation, have produced only minor changes in drainage and in topography. Shale and graywacke of Ordovician, Cambrian, and Proterozoic age forming the Taconic highlands, and akalic plutonic rocks of Mesozoic age are all highland makers. Sandstone and shale of Jurassic and Triassic age, similar rocks of Carboniferous age, and dolomite, limestone, and shale of Ordovician and Cambrian age commonly underlie lowlands. High-grade metapelites are more resistant than similar schists of low metamorphic grade and form the highest mountains in New England. Feldspathic rocks tend to

  1. Complex biological and bio-inspired systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The understanding and characterization ofthe fundamental processes of the function of biological systems underpins many of the important challenges facing American society, from the pathology of infectious disease and the efficacy ofvaccines, to the development of materials that mimic biological functionality and deliver exceptional and novel structural and dynamic properties. These problems are fundamentally complex, involving many interacting components and poorly understood bio-chemical kinetics. We use the basic science of statistical physics, kinetic theory, cellular bio-chemistry, soft-matter physics, and information science to develop cell level models and explore the use ofbiomimetic materials. This project seeks to determine how cell level processes, such as response to mechanical stresses, chemical constituents and related gradients, and other cell signaling mechanisms, integrate and combine to create a functioning organism. The research focuses on the basic physical processes that take place at different levels ofthe biological organism: the basic role of molecular and chemical interactions are investigated, the dynamics of the DNA-molecule and its phylogenetic role are examined and the regulatory networks of complex biochemical processes are modeled. These efforts may lead to early warning algorithms ofpathogen outbreaks, new bio-sensors to detect hazards from pathomic viruses to chemical contaminants. Other potential applications include the development of efficient bio-fuel alternative-energy processes and the exploration ofnovel materials for energy usages. Finally, we use the notion of 'coarse-graining,' which is a method for averaging over less important degrees of freedom to develop computational models to predict cell function and systems-level response to disease, chemical stress, or biological pathomic agents. This project supports Energy Security, Threat Reduction, and the missions of the DOE Office of Science through its efforts to accurately

  2. Polish Complementary Schools in Iceland and England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zielinska, Malgorzata; Kowzan, Piotr; Ragnarsdóttir, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Since 2004, the opening of labour markets has spurred a considerable number of Poles to emigrate e.g. to Iceland and England. Families with school age children have had the challenge of adapting to foreign environments and school systems. Polish complementary schools have played an important, albeit ambivalent, role in this process. Through focus…

  3. The Current Brouhaha about Standards in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Following a report by a Parliamentary Committee, the Higher Education Funding Council for England is consulting the sector about a strengthened national quality assurance system, with an enhanced role for information about quality and a closer focus on academic standards. This article provides a critical review of the main proposals.

  4. A New Sentinel Surveillance System for Severe Influenza in England Shows a Shift in Age Distribution of Hospitalised Cases in the Post-Pandemic Period

    PubMed Central

    Bolotin, Shelly; Pebody, Richard; White, Peter J.; McMenamin, James; Perera, Luke; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S.; Barlow, Thomas; Watson, John M.

    2012-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have highlighted the importance of establishing systems to monitor severe influenza. Following the H1N1 (2009) influenza pandemic, a sentinel network of 23 Trusts, the UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS), was established to monitor hospitalisations due to confirmed seasonal influenza in England. This article presents the results of the first season of operation of USISS in 2010/11. Methodology/Principal Findings A case was defined as a person hospitalised with confirmed influenza of any type. Weekly aggregate numbers of hospitalised influenza cases, broken down by flu type and level of care, were submitted by participating Trusts. Cases in 2010/11 were compared to cases during the 2009 pandemic in hospitals with available surveillance data for both time periods (n = 19). An unexpected resurgence in seasonal A/H1N1 (2009) influenza activity in England was observed in December 2010 with reports of severe disease. Reported cases over the period of 4 October 2010 to 13 February 2011 were mostly due to influenza A/H1N1 (2009). One thousand and seventy-one cases of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) occurred over this period compared to 409 at the same Trusts over the 2009/10 pandemic period (1 April 2009 to 6 January 2010). Median age of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) cases in 2010/11 was 35 years, compared with 20 years during the pandemic (p = <0.0001). Conclusions/Significance The Health Protection Agency successfully established a sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in 2010/11, detecting a rise in influenza cases mirroring other surveillance indicators. The data indicate an upward shift in the age-distribution of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) during the 2010/11 influenza season as compared to the 2009/10 pandemic. Systems to enable the ongoing surveillance of severe influenza will be a key component in understanding and responding to the evolving epidemiology of

  5. Origin of Hofmeister Effects for Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Rui; Yang, Gang; Tang, Ying; Liu, Xinmin; Li, Rui; Zhu, Hualing; Li, Hang

    2015-01-01

    Hofmeister effects have been recognized as important as Mendel’s work was to genetics while remain largely controversial, especially for the mechanistic aspects. Here we demonstrated that complex colloids in electrolyte solutions show resembling aggregation kinetics as model colloid, and then quantitatively evaluated the resulting Hofmeister effects. Mechanism for the aggregation of complex colloids has been proposed that is closely associated with the charges of their constituents; despite that, electrostatic interactions play a minor role while polarization effect is evidenced to be the driving force for the aggregation processes. Polarization effect is further ascribed to arouse the resulting Hofmeister effects, which is supported by the fine correlation of activation energies vs. polarizability data of different alkali ions and the calculations of dipole moments for minerals with different charges and adsorbed alkali ions. Because of neglecting polarization effect, the prevailing DLVO theory is not sufficient to describe Hofmeister effects that are ubiquitous in nature. We speculate that polarization effect should also be responsible for Hofmeister effects of other charged systems such as proteins and membranes. PMID:26200350

  6. Complexity in Strongly Correlated Electronic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Dagotto, Elbio R

    2005-01-01

    A wide variety of experimental results and theoretical investigations in recent years have convincingly demonstrated that several transition metal oxides and other materials have dominant states that are not spatially homogeneous. This occurs in cases in which several physical interactions - spin, charge, lattice, and/or orbital - are simultaneously active. This phenomenon causes interesting effects, such as colossal magnetoresistance, and it also appears crucial to understand the high-temperature superconductors. The spontaneous emergence of electronic nanometer-scale structures in transition metal oxides, and the existence of many competing states, are properties often associated with complex matter where nonlinearities dominate, such as soft materials and biological systems. This electronic complexity could have potential consequences for applications of correlated electronic materials, because not only charge (semiconducting electronic), or charge and spin (spintronics) are of relevance, but in addition the lattice and orbital degrees of freedom are active, leading to giant responses to small perturbations. Moreover, several metallic and insulating phases compete, increasing the potential for novel behavior.

  7. Using SysML to model complex systems for security.

    SciTech Connect

    Cano, Lester Arturo

    2010-08-01

    As security systems integrate more Information Technology the design of these systems has tended to become more complex. Some of the most difficult issues in designing Complex Security Systems (CSS) are: Capturing Requirements: Defining Hardware Interfaces: Defining Software Interfaces: Integrating Technologies: Radio Systems: Voice Over IP Systems: Situational Awareness Systems.

  8. Adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization of uncertain real and complex nonlinear systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shi-bing; Wang, Xing-yuan; Wang, Xiu-you; Zhou, Yu-fei

    2016-04-01

    With comprehensive consideration of generalized synchronization, combination synchronization and adaptive control, this paper investigates a novel adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization (AGCCS) scheme for different real and complex nonlinear systems with unknown parameters. On the basis of Lyapunov stability theory and adaptive control, an AGCCS controller and parameter update laws are derived to achieve synchronization and parameter identification of two real drive systems and a complex response system, as well as two complex drive systems and a real response system. Two simulation examples, namely, ACGCS for chaotic real Lorenz and Chen systems driving a hyperchaotic complexsystem, and hyperchaotic complex Lorenz and Chen systems driving a real chaotic Lü system, are presented to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  9. Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

    2010-01-01

    While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

  10. A complex systems approach to bibliometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, Michael J.

    Enabled by technological change, we are in the midst of a fundamental shift in how scientific information is produced and communicated. Electronic publishing, preprint archives, blogs, and wikis are emerging as possible viable alternatives to the current journal publishing and peer review system. However, these new technologies flood the environment with information, making it increasingly difficult to find the highest quality and most relevant papers. Additionally, accreditation and quality assessment of published material becomes nearly impossible for agencies interested in funding the research and development that is most likely to succeed. Recently, bibliometric tools have emerged as an effective means for the filtering, accreditation, and assessment of scholarly information. In this thesis, we approach bibliometrics from a complex systems perspective. A unique characteristic of the work presented in this thesis is that we perform empirical validation of bibliometric models using the most comprehensive bibliographic database available. Using these methods, we quantify the dynamics of citations to scientific journals, and investigate the relationship between social network position and research performance.

  11. Estimating vaccine effectiveness against severe influenza in England and Scotland 2011/2012: applying the screening method to data from intensive care surveillance systems.

    PubMed

    Thomas, H L; Andrews, N; Green, H K; Boddington, N L; Zhao, H; Reynolds, A; McMenamin, J; Pebody, R G

    2014-01-01

    Methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza are not well established. We used the screening method to estimate VE against influenza resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admission in England and Scotland in 2011/2012. We extracted data on confirmed influenza ICU cases from severe influenza surveillance systems, and obtained their 2011/2012 trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) status from primary care. We compared case vaccine uptake with population vaccine uptake obtained from routine monitoring systems, adjusting for age group, specific risk group, region and week. Of 60 influenza ICU cases reported, vaccination status was available for 56 (93%). Adjusted VE against ICU admission for those aged ≥ 65 years was -10% [95% confidence interval (CI) -207 to 60], consistent with evidence of poor protection from the 2011/2012 TIV in 2011/2012. Adjusted VE for those aged <65 years in risk groups was -296% (95% CI -930 to -52), suggesting significant residual confounding using the screening method in those subject to selective vaccination. PMID:23591102

  12. Rupture Synchronicity in Complex Fault Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    While most investigators would agree that the timing of large earthquakes within a fault system depends on stress-mediated interactions among its elements, much of the debate relevant to time-dependent forecasting has been centered on single-fault concepts, such as characteristic earthquake behavior. We propose to broaden this discussion by quantifying the multi-fault concept of rupture synchronicity. We consider a finite set of small, fault-spanning volumes {Vk} within a fault system of arbitrary (fractal) complexity. We let Ck be the catalog of length tmax comprising Nk discrete times {ti(k)} that mark when the kth volume participates in a rupture of magnitude > M. The main object of our analysis is the complete set of event time differences {τij(kk') = ti(k) - tj(k')}, which we take to be a random process with an expected density function ρkk'(t). When k = k', we call this function the auto-catalog density function (ACDF); when k ≠ k', we call it the cross-catalog density function (CCDF). The roles of the ACDF and CCDF in synchronicity theory are similar to those of autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions in time-series analysis. For a renewal process, the ACDF can be written in terms of convolutions of the interevent-time distribution, and many of its properties (e.g., large-t asymptote) can be derived analytically. The interesting information in the CCDF, like that in the ACDF, is concentrated near t = 0. If two catalogs are completely asynchronous, the CCDF collapses to an asymptote given by the harmonic mean of the ACDF asymptotes. Synchronicity can therefore be characterized by the variability of the CCDF about this asymptote. The brevity of instrumental catalogs makes the identification of synchronicity at large M difficult, but we will illustrate potentially interesting behaviors through the analysis of a million-year California catalog generated by the earthquake simulator, RSQSim (Deiterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010), which we sampled at a

  13. Management Strategies for Complex Adaptive Systems: Sensemaking, Learning, and Improvisation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Misspecification of the nature of organizations may be a major reason for difficulty in achieving performance improvement. Organizations are often viewed as machine-like, but complexity science suggests that organizations should be viewed as complex adaptive systems. I identify the characteristics of complex adaptive systems and give examples of…

  14. Uncoupled O and Hf isotopic systems in zircon from the contrasting granite suites of the New England Orogen, eastern Australia: Implications for studies of Phanerozoic magma genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, Heejin; Williams, Ian S.; Bennett, Vickie C.

    2014-12-01

    The Permo-Triassic granites of the New England Orogen, eastern Australia, were emplaced into a volcanic arc complex accreted to the eastern Gondwana margin in the Late Devonian or Early Carboniferous. Zircon U-Pb dating shows that the S-type Hillgrove (∼297 Ma) and Bundarra (∼287 Ma) Supersuites predated intrusion of the I-type Moonbi Supersuite (∼250 Ma) by up to 50 Ma. The high δ18Ozrn of the S-type granites (10.0-11.5‰), and range of U-Pb ages (∼370-300 Ma) and δ18Ozrn (∼5-10‰) of their inherited zircon cores, show that their source rocks were predominantly weathered Carboniferous volcaniclastics, the youngest deposited < 25 Ma before the granites were emplaced. In contrast, the lower δ18Ozrn (6.9-7.8‰) and lack of inheritance in the I-type granites is consistent with a zircon poor, more juvenile source, probably a mafic igneous underplate mixed with a small amount of volcanogenic and/or oceanic sediment. Despite the differences in source materials, the εHf(t) values of all granites, both S- and I-type, are similar (+5.0 ± 0.5 cf. +5.9 ± 0.5), consistent with both the mafic and sedimentary components in the granite sources being relatively young and similar in Hf isotopic composition at the time of granite genesis. In young, isotopically juvenile orogens, the O isotopic composition of well-dated igneous and inherited zircon can be a much more sensitive indicator of petrogenetic processes than the zircon Hf isotopic compositions alone.

  15. Inference, simulation, modeling, and analysis of complex networks, with special emphasis on complex networks in systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Claire Petra

    Across diverse fields ranging from physics to biology, sociology, and economics, the technological advances of the past decade have engendered an unprecedented explosion of data on highly complex systems with thousands, if not millions of interacting components. These systems exist at many scales of size and complexity, and it is becoming ever-more apparent that they are, in fact, universal, arising in every field of study. Moreover, they share fundamental properties---chief among these, that the individual interactions of their constituent parts may be well-understood, but the characteristic behaviour produced by the confluence of these interactions---by these complex networks---is unpredictable; in a nutshell, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. There is, perhaps, no better illustration of this concept than the discoveries being made regarding complex networks in the biological sciences. In particular, though the sequencing of the human genome in 2003 was a remarkable feat, scientists understand that the "cellular-level blueprints" for the human being are cellular-level parts lists, but they say nothing (explicitly) about cellular-level processes. The challenge of modern molecular biology is to understand these processes in terms of the networks of parts---in terms of the interactions among proteins, enzymes, genes, and metabolites---as it is these processes that ultimately differentiate animate from inanimate, giving rise to life! It is the goal of systems biology---an umbrella field encapsulating everything from molecular biology to epidemiology in social systems---to understand processes in terms of fundamental networks of core biological parts, be they proteins or people. By virtue of the fact that there are literally countless complex systems, not to mention tools and techniques used to infer, simulate, analyze, and model these systems, it is impossible to give a truly comprehensive account of the history and study of complex systems. The author

  16. Earthquakes in New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fratto, E. S.; Ebel, J.E.; Kadinsky-Cade, K.

    1990-01-01

    New England has a long history of earthquakes. Some of the first explorers were startled when they experienced strong shaking and rumbling of the earth below their feet. they soon learned from the Indians that this was not an uncommon occurrence in the New World. the Plymouth Pilgrims felt their first earthquake in 1638. that first shock rattled dishes, doors, and buildings. The shaking so frightened those working in the fields that they threw down their tools and ran panic-stricken through the countryside. 

  17. Complex systems thinking and current impasses in health disparities research.

    PubMed

    Diez Roux, Ana V

    2011-09-01

    Complex systems approaches have received increasing attention in public health because reductionist approaches yield limited insights in the context of dynamic systems. Most discussions have been highly abstract. There is a need to consider the application of complex systems approaches to specific research questions. I review the features of population health problems for which complex systems approaches are most likely to yield new insights, and discuss possible applications of complex systems to health disparities research. I provide illustrative examples of how complex systems approaches may help address unanswered and persistent questions regarding genetic factors, life course processes, place effects, and the impact of upstream policies. The concepts and methods of complex systems may help researchers move beyond current impasse points in health disparities research. PMID:21778505

  18. Multistage spectral relaxation method for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems.

    PubMed

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  19. Multistage Spectral Relaxation Method for Solving the Hyperchaotic Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  20. Electromagnetic coupling on complex systems - Topological approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmantier, J. P.; Labaume, G.; Alliot, J. C.; Degauque, P.

    The principles of electromagnetic topology, developed by Baum, are reviewed. The method involves breaking a complex electromagnetic problem down into several small ones that are easier to solve. An example is used to illustrate the advantages of the approach.

  1. Studies of complexity in fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Nagel, Sidney R.

    2000-06-12

    This is the final report of Grant DE-FG02-92ER25119, ''Studies of Complexity in Fluids'', we have investigated turbulence, flow in granular materials, singularities in evolution of fluid surfaces and selective withdrawal fluid flows. We have studied numerical methods for dealing with complex phenomena, and done simulations on the formation of river networks. We have also studied contact-line deposition that occurs in a drying drop.

  2. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System.

    PubMed

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model-Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  3. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System

    PubMed Central

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model—Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  4. Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-04-01

    The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

  5. Understanding Equilibrium: The Study of Complex Systems. Final Project Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duckworth, Eleanor; And Others

    The Educational Technology Center (ETC) Complex Systems Project was initiated to explore ways of using computers to help students understand systems which have often proven too complex for most high school students to understand. Preliminary work concentrated on the cognitive processes involved in modeling simple systems. This paper describes an…

  6. Complex network synchronization of chaotic systems with delay coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Theesar, S. Jeeva Sathya Ratnavelu, K.

    2014-03-05

    The study of complex networks enables us to understand the collective behavior of the interconnected elements and provides vast real time applications from biology to laser dynamics. In this paper, synchronization of complex network of chaotic systems has been studied. Every identical node in the complex network is assumed to be in Lur’e system form. In particular, delayed coupling has been assumed along with identical sector bounded nonlinear systems which are interconnected over network topology.

  7. Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

  8. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. Brad; Coco, Giovanni; Goldstein, Evan B.

    2014-06-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems does not always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small-scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes do not directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. Similarly, structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized, spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism in which the locations of the features do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break down and reform

  9. Developing resilience to England's future droughts: time for cap and trade?

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Gordon; McDonald, Adrian

    2015-02-01

    Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England. PMID:25463575

  10. Governing Education through Data: Scotland, England and the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Ozga, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    This paper draws on interview data from national policy makers in England, Scotland and the European Commission to illustrate differences in the referencing of "Europe" in education policy-making in England and Scotland in order to highlight the emergent complexity of post-devolution policy-making in education through a focus on relations and…

  11. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Patrick J.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Argue, Denise M.; Fisher, Irene J.; Furlong, Edward T.; Foreman, William T.; Gray, James L.; Chalmers, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely populated areas in coastal settings may be locally important sources of micropollutants to adjacent aquifer and marine systems.

  12. A review of medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System in England and Wales over 6 years (2005–2010)

    PubMed Central

    Cousins, David H; Gerrett, David; Warner, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    A review of all medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) in England in Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010 was undertaken. The 526 186 medication incident reports represented 9.68% of all patient safety incidents. Medication incidents from acute general hospitals (394 951) represented 75% of reports. There were relatively smaller numbers of medication incident reports (44 952) from primary care, representing 8.5% of the total. Of 86 821 (16%) medication incidents reporting actual patient harm, 822 (0.9%) resulted in death or severe harm. The incidents involving medicine administration (263 228; 50%) and prescribing (97 097; 18%) were the process steps with the largest number of reports. Omitted and delayed medicine (82 028; 16%) and wrong dose (80 170; 15%) represented the largest error categories. Thirteen medicines or therapeutic groups accounted for 377 (46%) of the incidents with outcomes of death or severe harm. The National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA) has issued guidance to help minimize incidents with many of these medicines. Many recent incidents could have been prevented if the NPSA guidance had been better implemented. It is recommended that healthcare organizations in all sectors establish an effective infrastructure to oversee and promote safe medication practice, including an annual medication safety report. In the future, preventable harms from medication incidents can be further minimized by; the continued use of the NRLS to identify and prioritize important actions to improve medication safety, a central organization continuing to issue medication safety guidance to the service and better methods to ensure that the National Health Service has implemented this guidance. PMID:22188210

  13. Robust Integrated Neurocontroller for Complex Dynamic Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zein-Sabatto, S.; Marpaka, D.; Hwang, W.

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are: adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as: sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system, (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and 3. Integration of above systems to create a Robust Integrated Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

  14. Robust integrated neurocontroller for complex dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zein-Sabbato, S.; Marpaka, D.; Hwang, W.

    1995-01-01

    The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system; (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and; (3) Integration of above systems to create a robust Integration Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

  15. Ofsted's Role in Promoting School Improvement: The Mechanisms of the School Inspection System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Karen; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Most countries across Europe now have their own Inspectorate as part of a school improvement and accountability system. However, there has been little research on the impact of school inspections or on the aspects of school inspections that maximise the positive effects and minimise the unintended consequences. As a precursor to further research,…

  16. Statistical Features of Complex Systems ---Toward Establishing Sociological Physics---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Naoki; Kuninaka, Hiroto; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    2011-07-01

    Complex systems have recently attracted much attention, both in natural sciences and in sociological sciences. Members constituting a complex system evolve through nonlinear interactions among each other. This means that in a complex system the multiplicative experience or, so to speak, the history of each member produces its present characteristics. If attention is paid to any statistical property in any complex system, the lognormal distribution is the most natural and appropriate among the standard or ``normal'' statistics to overview the whole system. In fact, the lognormality emerges rather conspicuously when we examine, as familiar and typical examples of statistical aspects in complex systems, the nursing-care period for the aged, populations of prefectures and municipalities, and our body height and weight. Many other examples are found in nature and society. On the basis of these observations, we discuss the possibility of sociological physics.

  17. Confluence and convergence: team effectiveness in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Porter-OʼGrady, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems require nursing leadership to rethink organizational work and the viability and effectiveness of teams. Much of emergent thinking about complexity and systems and organizations alter the understanding of the nature and function of teamwork and the configuration and leadership of team effort. Reflecting on basic concepts of complexity and their application to team formation, dynamics, and outcomes lays an important foundation for effectively guiding the strategic activity of systems through the focused tactical action of teams. Basic principles of complexity, their impact on teams, and the fundamental elements of team effectiveness are explored. PMID:25474670

  18. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Na

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research…

  19. Complex Systems: Science for the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Shank, Charles V.; Awschalom, David; Bawendi, Moungi; Frechet, Jean; Murphy, Donald; Stupp, Sam; Wolynes, Peter

    1999-03-06

    The workshop was designed to help define new scientific directions related to complex systems in order to create new understanding about the nano world and complicated, multicomponent structures. Five emerging themes regarding complexity were covered: Collective Phenomena; Materials by Design; Functional Systems; Nature's Mastery; and New Tools.

  20. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  1. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex-systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. B.; Coco, G.

    2012-04-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems doesn't always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes, and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes don't directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. And structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', which are striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism, in which the location of the features in any snap shot do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break

  2. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    PubMed

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  3. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    PubMed Central

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  4. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations. PMID:17063868

  5. Evaluation in the Design of Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Li-An; Schwen, Thomas M.

    2006-01-01

    We identify literature that argues the process of creating knowledge-based system is often imbalanced. In most knowledge-based systems, development is often technology-driven instead of requirement-driven. Therefore, we argue designers must recognize that evaluation is a critical link in the application of requirement-driven development models…

  6. Complex Communication System and Social Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Won H.

    The basic question under examination is the underlying force that brings forth changes in cultural and social organizations. By employing general system theory and communication systemic analysis, the author concludes that communication, especially human communication, is the main vehicle of change. Human interchange, it is suggested, is constant…

  7. Dispersion Modeling in Complex Urban Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models are used to represent real systems in an understandable way. They take many forms. A conceptual model explains the way a system works. In environmental studies, for example, a conceptual model may delineate all the factors and parameters for determining how a particle move...

  8. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems.

    PubMed

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Rubin, Joshua B; Schlaggar, Bradley L

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems-univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  9. CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: European Conference on Complex Systems 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-05-01

    The 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems will take place 21-25 September 2009 at the University of Warwick in the UK. Local Organising Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick, Chair), Francois Kepes (Genopole, Programme Chair), Robert MacKay (Warwick), Robin Ball (Warwick), Jeff Johnson (Open University). International Steering Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick; Chair 2008-10), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Jürgen Jost (Leipzig), Scott Kirkpatrick (Jerusalem), David Lane (University of Modena and Reggio Emillia), Andreas Lorincz (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Denise Pumain (Sorbonne), Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford), Eörs Szathmáry (Collegium Budapest, Hungary), Stephan Thurner (Wien), Paul Verschure (Barcelona), Alessandro Vespignani (Indiana, ISI), Riccardo Zecchina (Torino). Main tracks and Organisers Policy, Planning & Infrastructure: Jeff Johnson (Open University, Chair), Arnaud Banos (Strasbourg) Collective Human Behaviour and Society: Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford, Chair), Frances Griffiths (Warwick), Edmund Chattoe-Brown (Leicester) Interacting Populations and Environment: TBA Complexity and Computer Science: András Lörincz (Eötvös Loránd University), Paul Verschure (Zürich) From Molecules to Living Systems: Mark Chaplain (Dundee, Chair), Wolfgang Marwan (Magdeburg) Mathematics and Simulation: Holger Kantz (Dresden, Chair), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Matteo Marsili (Trieste). Deadlines Paper submission: 31 March 2009 with decisions 15 May 2009. Paper submission deadline likely to be extended. See http://www.eccs09.info for more information. Meeting registration: early registration July 2009; last assured chance 1 Sept. Further information For contacts and the most up-to-date information visit http://www.eccs09.info.

  10. Nervous System and Intracranial Tumour Incidence by Ethnicity in England, 2001–2007: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

    PubMed Central

    Maile, Edward J.; Barnes, Isobel; Finlayson, Alexander E.; Sayeed, Shameq; Ali, Raghib

    2016-01-01

    Background There is substantial variation in nervous system and intracranial tumour incidence worldwide. UK incidence data have limited utility because they group these diverse tumours together and do not provide data for individual ethnic groups within Blacks and South Asians. Our objective was to determine the incidence of individual tumour types for seven individual ethnic groups. Methods We used data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network on tumour site, age, sex and deprivation to identify 42,207 tumour cases. Self-reported ethnicity was obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We used mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. We analysed tumours by site using Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing non-White ethnicities to Whites after adjustment for sex, age and deprivation. Results Our study showed differences in tumour incidence by ethnicity for gliomas, meningiomas, pituitary tumours and cranial and paraspinal nerve tumours. Relative to Whites; South Asians, Blacks and Chinese have a lower incidence of gliomas (p<0.01), with respective incidence rate ratios of 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.60–0.77), 0.62 (0.52–0.73) and 0.58 (0.41–0.83). Blacks have a higher incidence of meningioma (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.29 (1.05–1.59) and there is heterogeneity in meningioma incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Blacks have a higher incidence of pituitary tumours relative to Whites (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 2.95 (2.37–3.67). There is heterogeneity in pituitary tumour incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Conclusions We present incidence data of individual tumour types for seven ethnic groups. Current understanding of the aetiology of these tumours cannot explain our results. These findings suggest avenues for further work. PMID:27135830

  11. Forewarning of Failure in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain is failure in critical equipment. A second is aging bridges. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  12. Software Analyzes Complex Systems in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Expert system software programs, also known as knowledge-based systems, are computer programs that emulate the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine) is one such program, a software inference engine (expert system) designed by NASA for the purpose of monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing both real-time and non-real-time systems. It was developed to meet many of the Agency s demanding and rigorous artificial intelligence goals for current and future needs. NASA developed the sophisticated and reusable software based on the experience and requirements of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) Artificial Intelligence Research Group in developing expert systems for space flight operations specifically, the diagnosis of spacecraft health. It was designed to be efficient enough to operate in demanding real time and in limited hardware environments, and to be utilized by non-expert systems applications written in conventional programming languages. The technology is currently used in several ongoing NASA applications, including the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Spacecraft Health Automatic Reasoning Pilot (SHARP) program for the diagnosis of telecommunication anomalies during the Neptune Voyager Encounter. It is also finding applications outside of the Space Agency.

  13. Design ATE systems for complex assemblies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Napier, R. S.; Flammer, G. H.; Moser, S. A.

    1983-06-01

    The use of ATE systems in radio specification testing can reduce the test time by approximately 90 to 95 percent. What is more, the test station does not require a highly trained operator. Since the system controller has full power over all the measurements, human errors are not introduced into the readings. The controller is immune to any need to increase output by allowing marginal units to pass through the system. In addition, the software compensates for predictable, repeatable system errors, for example, cabling losses, which are an inherent part of the test setup. With no variation in test procedures from unit to unit, there is a constant repeatability factor. Preparing the software, however, usually entails considerable expense. It is pointed out that many of the problems associated with ATE system software can be avoided with the use of a software-intensive, or computer-intensive, system organization. Its goal is to minimize the user's need for software development, thereby saving time and money.

  14. Measuring system complexity to support development cost estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malone, P.; Wolfarth, L.

    Systems and System-of-Systems (SoS) are being used more frequently either as a design element of stand alone systems or architectural frameworks. Consequently, a programmatic need has arisen to understand and measure systems complexity in order to estimate more accurately development plans and life-cycle costs. In a prior paper, we introduced the System Readiness Level (SRL) concept as a composite function of both Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and Integration Readiness Levels (IRLs) and touched on system complexity. While the SRL approach provides a repeatable, process-driven method to assess the maturity of a system or SoS, it does not capture all aspects of system complexity. In this paper we assess the concept of cyclomatic complexity as a system complexity metric and consider its utility as an approach for estimating the life-cycle costs and cost growth of complex systems. We hypothesize that the greater the number of technologies and integration tasks, the more complex the system and the higher its cost to develop and maintain. We base our analysis on historical data from DoD programs that have experienced significant cost growth, including some that have been cancelled due to unsustainable cost (and schedule) growth. We begin by describing the original implementation of the cyclomatic method, which was developed to estimate the effort to maintain system software. We then describe how the method can be generalized and applied to systems. Next, we show how to estimate the cyclomatic number (CN) and show the statistical significance between a system's CN metric and its cost. We illustrate the method with an example. Last, we discuss opportunities for future research.

  15. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS. PMID:26656389

  16. Complex systems as lenses on learning and teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurford, Andrew C.

    From metaphors to mathematized models, the complexity sciences are changing the ways disciplines view their worlds, and ideas borrowed from complexity are increasingly being used to structure conversations and guide research on teaching and learning. The purpose of this corpus of research is to further those conversations and to extend complex systems ideas, theories, and modeling to curricula and to research on learning and teaching. A review of the literatures of learning and of complexity science and a discussion of the intersections between those disciplines are provided. The work reported represents an evolving model of learning qua complex system and that evolution is the result of iterative cycles of design research. One of the signatures of complex systems is the presence of scale invariance and this line of research furnishes empirical evidence of scale invariant behaviors in the activity of learners engaged in participatory simulations. The offered discussion of possible causes for these behaviors and chaotic phase transitions in human learning favors real-time optimization of decision-making as the means for producing such behaviors. Beyond theoretical development and modeling, this work includes the development of teaching activities intended to introduce pre-service mathematics and science teachers to complex systems. While some of the learning goals for this activity focused on the introduction of complex systems as a content area, we also used complex systems to frame perspectives on learning. Results of scoring rubrics and interview responses from students illustrate attributes of the proposed model of complex systems learning and also how these pre-service teachers made sense of the ideas. Correlations between established theories of learning and a complex adaptive systems model of learning are established and made explicit, and a means for using complex systems ideas for designing instruction is offered. It is a fundamental assumption of this

  17. What is the utility of using syndromic surveillance systems during large subnational infectious gastrointestinal disease outbreaks? An observational study using case studies from the past 5 years in England.

    PubMed

    Todkill, D; Elliot, A J; Morbey, R; Harris, J; Hawker, J; Edeghere, O; Smith, G E

    2016-08-01

    Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks - which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations - demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents. PMID:27033409

  18. Multiscale Computational Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Walpole, Joseph; Papin, Jason A.; Peirce, Shayn M.

    2014-01-01

    Integration of data across spatial, temporal, and functional scales is a primary focus of biomedical engineering efforts. The advent of powerful computing platforms, coupled with quantitative data from high-throughput experimental platforms, has allowed multiscale modeling to expand as a means to more comprehensively investigate biological phenomena in experimentally relevant ways. This review aims to highlight recently published multiscale models of biological systems while using their successes to propose the best practices for future model development. We demonstrate that coupling continuous and discrete systems best captures biological information across spatial scales by selecting modeling techniques that are suited to the task. Further, we suggest how to best leverage these multiscale models to gain insight into biological systems using quantitative, biomedical engineering methods to analyze data in non-intuitive ways. These topics are discussed with a focus on the future of the field, the current challenges encountered, and opportunities yet to be realized. PMID:23642247

  19. Early Years Educators in Finland and England: Issues of Professionality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moriarty, Viv

    2000-01-01

    Semi-structured interviews were conducted to examine early years educators' views of their professional role in England and Finland, related to the role of parents during early years education. Findings suggested that Finnish educators had adopted understanding of professionalism based more closely on notions of complexity and democracy than…

  20. The Social Organisation of Education Research in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawn, Martin; Furlong, John

    2007-01-01

    The field of education research has grown enormously in England over the last 25 years--in size, complexity, forms of production and purpose. It has been shaped by governmental, market and production changes, and it appears to be moving outside the university sector as well. The British Educational Research Association is trying to map the field…

  1. Changing Landscapes in Safeguarding Babies and Young Children in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumsden, Eunice

    2014-01-01

    The importance of safeguarding children from violence is internationally recognised. However, detecting, intervening and protecting children from abuse both within the family and in institutions is complex. This paper specifically focuses on safeguarding in England and how workforce reform in the early years offers the opportunity to forge new…

  2. Tailoring Enterprise Systems Engineering Policy for Project Scale and Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Renee I.; Thomas, L. Dale

    2014-01-01

    Space systems are characterized by varying degrees of scale and complexity. Accordingly, cost-effective implementation of systems engineering also varies depending on scale and complexity. Recognizing that systems engineering and integration happen everywhere and at all levels of a given system and that the life cycle is an integrated process necessary to mature a design, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a suite of customized implementation approaches based on project scale and complexity. While it may be argued that a top-level system engineering process is common to and indeed desirable across an enterprise for all space systems, implementation of that top-level process and the associated products developed as a result differ from system to system. The implementation approaches used for developing a scientific instrument necessarily differ from those used for a space station. .

  3. Multiphoton coherent control in complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Goswami, Debabrata

    2005-01-01

    Control of multiphoton transitions is demonstrated for a multilevel system by generalizing the instantaneous phase of any chirped pulse as individual terms of a Taylor series expansion. In the case of a simple two-level system, all odd terms in the series lead to population inversion while the even terms lead to self-induced transparency. The results hold for multiphoton transitions that do not have any lower-order photon resonance or any intermediate virtual state dynamics within the laser pulse width. PMID:17396157

  4. Second Language Learning of Complex Inflectional Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kempe, Vera; Brooks, Patricia J.

    2008-01-01

    This study explored learning and generalization of parts of the Russian case-marking paradigm, an inflecting-fusional system in which affixes simultaneously mark several grammatical features (case, gender, number, animacy). In Experiment 1, adult English speakers (N = 43) were exposed to nouns with transparent gender marking in the nominative case…

  5. Ice Storage System for School Complex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Ross D.

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project at the Manatee Education Center in Naples, Florida, which won an ASHRAE award. Project involved the implementation of ice-storage technology in 19 schools. Compares the performance of ice-storage systems with traditional chiller designs in two other schools. Tables illustrate costs for the campuses. Addresses the maintenance…

  6. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems

    PubMed Central

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N.; Rubin, Joshua B.; Schlaggar, Bradley L.

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems—univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  7. Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Hall, Laura E.

    1994-01-01

    DeMAID (A Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problem. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Available in two machine versions: Macintosh and Sun.

  8. Critical care nursing: Embedded complex systems.

    PubMed

    Trinier, Ruth; Liske, Lori; Nenadovic, Vera

    2016-01-01

    Variability in parameters such as heart rate, respiratory rate and blood pressure defines healthy physiology and the ability of the person to adequately respond to stressors. Critically ill patients have lost this variability and require highly specialized nursing care to support life and monitor changes in condition. The critical care environment is a dynamic system through which information flows. The critical care unit is typically designed as a tree structure with generally one attending physician and multiple nurses and allied health care professionals. Information flow through the system allows for identification of deteriorating patient status and timely interventionfor rescue from further deleterious effects. Nurses provide the majority of direct patient care in the critical care setting in 2:1, 1:1 or 1:2 nurse-to-patient ratios. The bedside nurse-critically ill patient relationship represents the primary, real-time feedback loop of information exchange, monitoring and treatment. Variables that enhance information flow through this loop and support timely nursing intervention can improve patient outcomes, while barriers can lead to errors and adverse events. Examining patient information flow in the critical care environment from a dynamic systems perspective provides insights into how nurses deliver effective patient care and prevent adverse events. PMID:27047997

  9. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  10. Biology and Nonequilibrium: Remarks on a Paper by J.L. England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruelle, D.

    2015-07-01

    This note analyzes the physical basis of J.R. England's paper "Statistical physics of self-replication." [J. Chem. Phys. 139, 121923 (2013)]. We follow England's use of time-reversal symmetry but replace stochastic by deterministic dynamics, and introduce a definition of metastable states based on equilibrium statistical mechanics. We rederive England's detailed balance relation and obtain another similar relation which appears more natural and remains valid for quantum systems. The detailed balance relations are based on serious physical ideas, and either of them can be used for England's biological discussion. This biological discussion does of course deserve further scrutiny. This article is supplemented with comments by P. Gaspard.