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Sample records for england complex systems

  1. International Instructional Systems: How England Measures Up

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Creese, Brian; Isaacs, Tina

    2016-01-01

    Although England was not included in the International Instructional Systems Study because it was not a high-performing jurisdiction by the Study's definition, contributors largely were England-based. Analysing the Study's nine overall aspects of instructional systems, this paper finds that England is out of step with many of the high-performing…

  2. Environment Agency England flood warning systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strong, Chris; Walters, Mark; Haynes, Elizabeth; Dobson, Peter

    2015-04-01

    Context In England around 5 million homes are at risk of flooding. We invest significantly in flood prevention and management schemes but we can never prevent all flooding. Early alerting systems are fundamental to helping us reduce the impacts of flooding. The Environment Agency has had the responsibility for flood warning since 1996. In 2006 we invested in a new dissemination system that would send direct messages to pre-identified recipients via a range of channels. Since then we have continuously improved the system and service we offer. In 2010 we introduced an 'opt-out' service where we pre-registered landline numbers in flood risk areas, significantly increasing the customer base. The service has performed exceptionally well under intense flood conditions. Over a period of 3 days in December 2013, when England was experiencing an east coast storm surge, the system sent nearly 350,000 telephone messages, 85,000 emails and 70,000 text messages, with a peak call rate of around 37,000 per hour and 100% availability. The Floodline Warnings Direct (FWD) System FWD provides warnings in advance of flooding so that people at risk and responders can take action to minimise the impact of the flood. Warnings are sent via telephone, fax, text message, pager or e-mail to over 1.1 million properties located within flood risk areas in England. Triggers for issuing alerts and warnings include attained and forecast river levels and rainfall in some rapidly responding locations. There are three levels of warning: Flood Alert, Flood Warning and Severe Flood Warning, and a stand down message. The warnings can be updated to include relevant information to help inform those at risk. Working with our current provider Fujitsu, the system is under a programme of continuous improvement including expanding the 'opt-out' service to mobile phone numbers registered to at risk addresses, allowing mobile registration to the system for people 'on the move' and providing access to

  3. United Kingdom (England): Health system review.

    PubMed

    Boyle, Seán

    2011-01-01

    The Health Systems in Transition (HiT) profiles are country-based reports that provide a detailed description of a health system and of policy initiatives in progress or under development. HiTs examine different approaches to the organization, financing and delivery of health services and the role of the main actors in health systems; describe the institutional framework, process, content and implementation of health and health care policies; and highlight challenges and areas that require more in-depth analysis. Various indicators show that the health of the population has improved over the last few decades. However, inequalities in health across socioeconomic groups have been increasing since the 1970s. The main diseases affecting the population are circulatory diseases, cancer, diseases of the respiratory system and diseases of the digestive system. Risk factors such as the steadily rising levels of alcohol consumption, the sharp increases in adult and child obesity and prevailing smoking levels are among the most pressing public health concerns, particularly as they reflect the growing health inequalities among different socioeconomic groups. Health services in England are largely free at the point of use. The NHS provides preventive medicine, primary care and hospital services to all those ordinarily resident. Over 12% of the population is covered by voluntary health insurance schemes, known in the United Kingdom as private medical insurance (PMI), which mainly provides access to acute elective care in the private sector. Responsibility for publicly funded health care rests with the Secretary of State for Health, supported by the Department of Health. The Department operates at a regional level through 10 strategic health authorities (SHAs), which are responsible for ensuring the quality and performance of local health services within their geographic area. Responsibility for commissioning health services at the local level lies with 151 primary care

  4. Value-Added Measures for Schools in England: Looking inside the "Black Box" of Complex Metrics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony; Downey, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Value-added measures can be used to allocate funding to schools, to identify those institutions in need of special attention and to underpin government guidance on targets. In England, there has been a tendency to include in these measures an ever-greater number of contextualising variables and to develop ever-more complex models that encourage…

  5. Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Goldberger, Ary L.

    2006-01-01

    Physiologic systems in health and disease display an extraordinary range of temporal behaviors and structural patterns that defy understanding based on linear constructs, reductionist strategies, and classical homeostasis. Application of concepts and computational tools derived from the contemporary study of complex systems, including nonlinear dynamics, fractals and “chaos theory,” is having an increasing impact on biology and medicine. This presentation provides a brief overview of an emerging area of biomedical research, including recent applications to cardiopulmonary medicine and chronic obstructive lung disease. PMID:16921107

  6. How a universal health system reduces inequalities: lessons from England

    PubMed Central

    Ali, Shehzad; Doran, Tim; Ferguson, Brian; Fleetcroft, Robert; Goddard, Maria; Goldblatt, Peter; Laudicella, Mauro; Raine, Rosalind; Cookson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background Provision of universal coverage is essential for achieving equity in healthcare, but inequalities still exist in universal healthcare systems. Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, the National Health Service (NHS) in England, which has provided universal coverage since 1948, made sustained efforts to reduce health inequalities by strengthening primary care. We provide the first comprehensive assessment of trends in socioeconomic inequalities of primary care access, quality and outcomes during this period. Methods Whole-population small area longitudinal study based on 32 482 neighbourhoods of approximately 1500 people in England from 2004/2005 to 2011/2012. We measured slope indices of inequality in four indicators: (1) patients per family doctor, (2) primary care quality, (3) preventable emergency hospital admissions and (4) mortality from conditions considered amenable to healthcare. Results Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, there were larger absolute improvements on all indicators in more-deprived neighbourhoods. The modelled gap between the most-deprived and least-deprived neighbourhoods in England decreased by: 193 patients per family doctor (95% CI 173 to 213), 3.29 percentage points of primary care quality (3.13 to 3.45), 0.42 preventable hospitalisations per 1000 people (0.29 to 0.55) and 0.23 amenable deaths per 1000 people (0.15 to 0.31). By 2011/2012, inequalities in primary care supply and quality were almost eliminated, but socioeconomic inequality was still associated with 158 396 preventable hospitalisations and 37 983 deaths amenable to healthcare. Conclusions Between 2004/2005 and 2011/2012, the NHS succeeded in substantially reducing socioeconomic inequalities in primary care access and quality, but made only modest reductions in healthcare outcome inequalities. PMID:26787198

  7. The Evolution of the Modern Vocational Training System in England and Germany: A Comparative View.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deissenger, Thomas

    1994-01-01

    Maintains that although Germany and England's vocational training systems both grew out of the Industrial Revolution, social and economic characteristics resulted in significantly different systems. England chose a more market driven approach while Germany relied on the authority of the central government. (MJP)

  8. Racialised Norms in Apprenticeship Systems in England and Germany

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chadderton, Charlotte; Wischmann, Anke

    2014-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the issue of the under-representation of young people from minority ethnic/migrant backgrounds in apprenticeships in England and Germany. Whilst there are many studies on apprenticeships in England and Germany, few focus on under-representation or discrimination, even fewer on ethnic under-representation, and there are…

  9. Modelling Trajectories through the Educational System in North West England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Penn, Roger; Berridge, Damon

    2008-01-01

    The main aim of this paper is to identify those school-level and locality-level factors that significantly affect each of the three stages in a young adult's educational trajectory in North West England: GCSE results, track taken at age 16 and "A"-level scores. By applying three-level models to data collected as part of the EFFNATIS project, we…

  10. Complexity in the new NHS: longitudinal case studies of CCGs in England

    PubMed Central

    Checkland, Katherine; Coleman, Anna; Perkins, Neil

    2016-01-01

    Objective The reform in the English National Health Services (NHS) under the Health and Social Care Act 2012 is unlike previous NHS reorganisations. The establishment of clinical commissioning groups (CCGs) was intended to be ‘bottom up’ with no central blueprint. This paper sets out to offer evidence about how this process has played out in practice and examines the implications of the complexity and variation which emerged. Design Detailed case studies in CCGs across England, using interviews, observation and documentary analysis. Using realist framework, we unpacked the complexity of CCG structures. Setting/participants In phase 1 of the study (January 2011 to September 2012), we conducted 96 interviews, 439 h of observation in a wide variety of meetings, 2 online surveys and 38 follow-up telephone interviews. In phase 2 (April 2013 to March 2015), we conducted 42 interviews with general practitioners (GPs) and managers and observation of 48 different types of meetings. Results Our study has highlighted the complexity inherent in CCGs, arising out of the relatively permissive environment in which they developed. Not only are they very different from one another in size, but also in structure, functions between different bodies and the roles played by GPs. Conclusions The complexity and lack of uniformity of CCGs is important as it makes it difficult for those who must engage with CCGs to know who to approach at what level. This is of increasing importance as CCGs are moving towards greater integration across health and social care. Our study also suggests that there is little consensus as to what being a ‘membership’ organisation means and how it should operate. The lack of uniformity in CCG structure and lack of clarity over the meaning of ‘membership’ raises questions over accountability, which becomes of greater importance as CCG is taking over responsibility for primary care co-commissioning. PMID:26743708

  11. Mapping stakeholders for system evaluation - the case of the Electronic Prescription Service in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, V; Petrakaki, D; Hibberd, R; Venters, W; Cornford, A; Barber, N

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the process of identifying stakeholders for the evaluation of health information systems through a map. Defining the multiplicity of stakeholders associated with a new system as well as the nature of their relationships is an important aspect of evaluating any intervention. We report a study of the Electronic Prescription Service (EPS) in primary care in England. We describe the complexity associated with the process of identifying stakeholders and illustrating their dynamic relationships. Reflecting upon our experience of map-making and map-using, we discuss the role of a stakeholder map to generate and communicate knowledge. The EPS stakeholder map - in its variety of possible alternative representations - reveals the complexity of the electronic prescribing scenario and the challenge of its evaluation. Recognising the drawbacks of a static two dimensional representation, we argue that a dynamic use of a stakeholder map and a reflective map-making practice is useful and important for the evaluation of IT programmes in healthcare. PMID:20841878

  12. Privatization and Sponsorship: The Re-Agenting of the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hatcher, Richard

    2006-01-01

    In this article I use the concept of "re-agenting" to explore and explain the role of non-state agencies, principally private companies and business entrepreneurs, as key instruments in the government's transformation of the school system in England. Their role takes both for-profit and not-for-profit forms. The outsourcing to private companies of…

  13. Towards a Universal Upper Secondary Education System in England: A Unified and Ecosystem Vision

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hodgson, Ann; Spours, Ken

    2012-01-01

    In their joint Inaugural Professorial Lecture, Hodgson and Spours argue for a universal upper secondary education system in England. Seeing the education of 14-19 year olds in this way brings considerable demands and requires a new form of critical analysis. At present English upper secondary education remains divided and a truncated experience…

  14. Rising to the Literacy Challenge: Building Adult Education Systems in New England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liebowitz, Marty; Robins, Amy; Rubin, Jerry

    This document describes a research study of the status of basic adult literacy services in New England, particularly the inadequate link between adult basic education (ABE) and work- force preparation programs. The report describes a system that has failed to adapt to the region's increased need for articulation among English as a Second Language…

  15. The Complex Determinants of School Intake Characteristics and Segregation, England 1989 to 2014

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2016-01-01

    The extent of between-school segregation, or clustering of disadvantaged students within schools, in England varies depending on the indicator of interest. For example, the trend over time for segregation by student poverty differs from those for ethnicity or special educational need. Additionally the causes of the level of segregation for any…

  16. The Dark Figure of Infanticide in England and Wales: Complexities of Diagnosis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brookman, Fiona; Nolan, Jane

    2006-01-01

    Infants aged younger than 12 months have the highest homicide victimization rate of any single age group in England and Wales. In addition, there are good grounds for believing that the official homicide statistics for this particular age group are an underestimate and subject to distortion. At the same time there is evidence mounting in the…

  17. Complexation of Optoelectronic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreisho, A. S.; Il‧in, M. Yu.; Konyaev, M. A.; Mikhailenko, A. S.; Morozov, A. V.; Strakhov, S. Yu.

    2016-06-01

    Problems of increasing the efficiency and the functionality of complex optoelectronic systems for monitoring real atmospheric conditions and of their use are discussed. It is shown by the example of a meteorological complex comprising an infrared wind-sensing lidar and an X-range Doppler radar that the complexation of probing systems working in different electromagnetic-radiation ranges opens up new opportunities for determining the meteorological parameters of a turbulent atmosphere and investigating the interaction of radiation with it.

  18. Controllability of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slotine, Jean-Jacques

    2013-03-01

    We review recent work on controllability of complex systems. We also discuss the interplay of our results with questions of synchronization, and point out key directions of future research. Work done in collaboration with Yang-Yu Liu, Center for Complex Network Research and Departments of Physics, Computer Science and Biology, Northeastern University and Center for Cancer Systems Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; and Albert-László Barabási, Center for Complex Network Research and Departments of Physics, Computer Science and Biology, Northeastern University; Center for Cancer Systems Biology, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute; and Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School.

  19. COMPLEXITY IN ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The enormous complexity of ecosystems is generally obvious under even the most cursory examination. In the modern world, this complexity is further augmented by the linkage of ecosystems to economic and social systems through the human use of the environment for technological pu...

  20. Product Diversity and Spectrum of Choice in Hospital ePrescribing Systems in England

    PubMed Central

    Mozaffar, Hajar; Williams, Robin; Cresswell, Kathrin; Morison, Zoe; Slee, Ann; Team, Aziz Sheikh; Coleman, Jamie; Bates, David W.; Robertson, Ann; Avery, Tony; Blake, Laurence; Chuter, Antony; Slight, Sarah P.; Girling, Alan; Lee, Lisa; Lilford, Richard; McCloughan, Lucy; Schofield, Jill

    2014-01-01

    Background ePrescribing systems have considerable potential for improving healthcare quality and safety. With growing expectations about the benefits of such systems, there is evidence of widespread plans to implement these systems in hospitals in England where hitherto they have had a low uptake. Given the international drive away from developing home-grown to systems to procuring commercial applications, we aimed to identify available ePrescribing systems in England and to use the findings to develop a taxonomy of the systems offered by suppliers. Methods and Findings We undertook a scoping review of the published and grey literature, and conducted expert interviews with vendors, healthcare organisations and national ePrescribing experts in order to identify the spectrum of available systems, identify and map their key features, and then iteratively develop and validate a taxonomy of commercial ePrescribing systems available to English hospitals. There is a wide range of available systems including 13 hospital-wide applications and a range of specialty systems. These commercial applications can be grouped into four sub-categories: standalone systems, modules within integrated systems, functionalities spread over several modules, and specialty systems. The findings also reveal that apart from four packaged applications (two of which are specialty systems), all other systems have none or less than two live implementations across England. Conclusions The wide range of products developed in the last few years by different national and international suppliers, and the low uptake of these products by English hospitals indicate that the English ePrescribing market is still in its infancy. This market is undergoing rapid cycles of change, both with respect to the number of suppliers and their diversity of offerings. Constant renewal of knowledge is needed on the status of this evolving market, encompassing the products development and adoption, to assist implementation

  1. Towards a Totalitarian Education System in England: Looking at the Academy Question in a Longer Policy Context

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Newsam, Peter

    2013-01-01

    In this opinion piece, the author writes that England is now well on the way to having the most totalitarian as well as one of the most inefficiently managed schools system in Europe. He states that in the much maligned 1960s, people came from all over the world to learn from what was being achieved in the best of England's publicly-funded,…

  2. A comparison of substance dependence treatment information system in America, England, and Iran

    PubMed Central

    Ajami, Sima; Mellat-Karkevandi, Zahra; Saghaeiannejad-Isfahani, Sakineh; Salehi, Mehrdad; Jahanbakhsh, Maryam

    2014-01-01

    Context: Addiction, as a social problem, is a phenomenon that causes structural changes in cultural, social, political, and economic system in society. Prevention of this problem means decrease of risk factors and increase of protective factors; and recognition of these factors is possible with the help of update, accurate, and complete information in information systems. Aims: The aim of this study was to compare substance dependence treatment information system (SDTIS) in America, England, and Iran. Materials and Methods: This research was an applied and comparison-descriptive study, in which SDTIS was compared in America, England, and Iran. These countries were chosen based on available information on the Internet and also on the development of these countries in the health information management field. Information resources included library resources, electronic resources, and expert people (Health Information Management, Medical Records Education, Psychologist, Psychiatrist, and Medical Informatics). The data collection tool was the data raw form, whose reliability was proved by expert people. Statistical Analysis Used: Findings were analyzed by theory and descriptive method. Results: America and England had the SDTIS. Their systems had special characteristics such as goals, scope, special method for collecting, processing, reporting, quality and validity control, and confidentiality principles. However, there was no such system in Iran and the present situation in Iran has many differences with similar situations in the studied countries. Conclusion: Presence of an information system in the substance dependence treatment field helps to prevent, control, and treat addicted people. Hence, we try to submit a suitable model for implementing this system. PMID:24741657

  3. Managing Complex Dynamical Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cox, John C.; Webster, Robert L.; Curry, Jeanie A.; Hammond, Kevin L.

    2011-01-01

    Management commonly engages in a variety of research designed to provide insight into the motivation and relationships of individuals, departments, organizations, etc. This paper demonstrates how the application of concepts associated with the analysis of complex systems applied to such data sets can yield enhanced insights for managerial action.

  4. Six Questions on Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Symons, John F.; Sanayei, Ali

    2011-09-01

    This paper includes an interview with John F. Symons regarding some important questions in "complex systems" and "complexity". In addition, he has stated some important open problems concerning complex systems in his research area from a philosophical point of view.

  5. Education in a Multicultural Environment: Equity Issues in Teaching and Learning in the School System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyle, Bill; Charles, Marie

    2011-01-01

    The paper focuses on the auditing and accountancy paradigm that has dominated educational measurement of pupil performance for the last 20 years in England. The advocates of this minimum competency paradigm do not take account of the results of its dominance. These results include ignoring the heterogeneous complexity of groups within societies…

  6. Environmental externality surcharges in power system planning: A case study of New England

    SciTech Connect

    Busch, J.F. Jr; Krause, F.L. )

    1993-08-01

    In several states, public utility commissions have adopted surcharges for environmental externalities (adders) to be used in electric utility planning. The Massachusetts adder system applies major surcharges to emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and carbon dioxide. In this paper the authors explore the implications in terms of cost and emissions of using the Massachusetts adders as shadow prices in dispatching the pooled electric power system in New England. Their analysis has made use of a probabilistic production cost simulation model to estimate the impacts on the present system, and on a resource mix envisioned 15 years hence. The externality cost adders are used to influence the dispatch of a fixed configuration of power plants and not used to affect the composition of the future resource mix. Compared to conventional dispatch, emissions of SO[sub 2] and NO[sub x] drop by 10% to 15%, while carbon emissions remain virtually unaffected. The production cost penalty is 3% to 4%. In each year, reductions are accomplished mainly by shifting generation away from New England's coal steam power plants.

  7. Mesozoic igneous intrusions in New England and Quebec: Implications from lead (Pb) isotopes on petrogenesis and mantle sources (Ascutney Mountain, Vermont; Mont Saint Hilaire, Quebec; Pliny Complex, New Hampshire)

    SciTech Connect

    Schucker, D.E.

    1992-01-01

    Lead isotopes are used to study Mesozoic intrusions from New England and Quebec, specifically the igneous complexes of Ascutney Mountain (Vermont), Mont Saint Hilaire (Quebec), and Pliny (New Hampshire). The main objectives are to address the: (1) petrogenesis of specific complexes using Pb isotopes along with previous results; and (2) sources of parental magmas in the context of a possible plume source for the Cretaceous intrusions and New England Seamounts. Analytical procedures for Pb and U are also described in detail. For each of the three complexes, significant variation in apparent initial [sup 208]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, [sup 207]Pb/[sup 204]Pb, and [sup 206]Pb/[sup 204]Pb ratios are observed. These variations reflect crustal contamination and local country rocks are isotopically suitable contaminants. Contamination lowers the Pb isotopic ratios of the modified magmas. The Pb ratios of the parental magmas are constrained by defining trends resulting from crustal contamination. At the Ascutney complex, granites appear to be uniform at the time of formation based on feldspar results. Granite whole rocks exhibit open system U-Pb behavior which is attributed to significant recent U loss (of up to 38%). Both local schists and gneisses are important contaminants with generally <25% contamination. Significant isotopic variations are apparent at Mont Saint Hilaire where rock-feldspar variations are apparently not in isotopic equilibrium. Feldspars reflect magmatic values and indicate crustal contamination of a parental magma for the Hilaire complex. A limited data set for the Pliny complex suggests a parental magma. The Pb results support a common mantle source for the Cretaceous continental intrusions (Ascutney and Mont Saint Hilaire) and the New England Seamounts. They imply magma from a sublithospheric mantle-plume, and that magmas ascended with little or no lithospheric interaction. The magma source for the Jurassic Pliny complex appears to be different.

  8. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England.

    PubMed

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, 'Ornithocheirus' capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., 'Ornithocheirus' polyodon, 'Ornithocheirus' platystomus, 'Pterodactylus' daviesii, and 'Ornithocheirus' denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here named Anhangueria, which also

  9. Hypernetworks of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Jeffrey

    Hypernetworks generalise the concept of a relation between two things to relations between many things. The notion of relational simplex generalises the concept of network edge to relations between many elements. Relational simplices have multi-dimensional connectivity related to hyper-graphs and the Galois lattice of maximally connected sets of elements. This structure acts as a kind of backcloth for the dynamic system traffic represented by numerical mappings, where the topology of the backcloth constrains the dynamics of the traffic. Simplices provide a way of defining multilevel structure. This relates to system time measured by the formation of simplices as system events. Multilevel hypernetworks are classes of sets of relational simplices that represent the system backcloth and the traffic of systems activity it supports. Hypernetworks provide a significant generalisation of network theory, enabling the integration of relational structure, logic, and topological and analytic dynamics. They provide structures that are likely to be necessary if not sufficient for a science of complex multilevel socio-technical systems.

  10. Forecasting in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rundle, J. B.; Holliday, J. R.; Graves, W. R.; Turcotte, D. L.; Donnellan, A.

    2014-12-01

    Complex nonlinear systems are typically characterized by many degrees of freedom, as well as interactions between the elements. Interesting examples can be found in the areas of earthquakes and finance. In these two systems, fat tails play an important role in the statistical dynamics. For earthquake systems, the Gutenberg-Richter magnitude-frequency is applicable, whereas for daily returns for the securities in the financial markets are known to be characterized by leptokurtotic statistics in which the tails are power law. Very large fluctuations are present in both systems. In earthquake systems, one has the example of great earthquakes such as the M9.1, March 11, 2011 Tohoku event. In financial systems, one has the example of the market crash of October 19, 1987. Both were largely unexpected events that severely impacted the earth and financial systems systemically. Other examples include the M9.3 Andaman earthquake of December 26, 2004, and the Great Recession which began with the fall of Lehman Brothers investment bank on September 12, 2013. Forecasting the occurrence of these damaging events has great societal importance. In recent years, national funding agencies in a variety of countries have emphasized the importance of societal relevance in research, and in particular, the goal of improved forecasting technology. Previous work has shown that both earthquakes and financial crashes can be described by a common Landau-Ginzburg-type free energy model. These metastable systems are characterized by fat tail statistics near the classical spinodal. Correlations in these systems can grow and recede, but do not imply causation, a common source of misunderstanding. In both systems, a common set of techniques can be used to compute the probabilities of future earthquakes or crashes. In this talk, we describe the basic phenomenology of these systems and emphasize their similarities and differences. We also consider the problem of forecast validation and verification

  11. Trajectories of Higher Education System Differentiation: Structural Policy-Making and the Impact of Tuition Fees in England and Australia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCaig, Colin

    2011-01-01

    This article explores the impact of student self-financing systems on inequalities of access to higher education (HE) through comparative analysis of two national systems, those of England and Australia. The analysis of the historical development of HE in each nation identifies a set of comparative global themes: the expansion of HE in response to…

  12. Taxonomic review of the Ornithocheirus complex (Pterosauria) from the Cretaceous of England

    PubMed Central

    Rodrigues, Taissa; Kellner, Alexander Wilhelm Armin

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Over a decade after the last major review of the Cambridge Greensand pterosaurs, their systematics remains one of the most disputed points in pterosaur taxonomy. Ornithocheiridae is still a wastebasket for fragmentary taxa, and some nomenclatural issues are still a problem. Here, the species from the Cretaceous of England that, at some point, were referred in Ornithocheirus, are reviewed. Investigation of the primary literature confirmed that Criorhynchus should be considered an objective junior synonym of Ornithocheirus. Taxonomic review of more than 30 species known from fragmentary remains showed that 16 of them are undiagnosable (nomina dubia): Palaeornis cliftii, Cimoliornis diomedeus, Pterodactylus compressirostris, Pterodactylus fittoni, Pterodactylus woodwardi, Ornithocheirus brachyrhinus, Ornithocheirus carteri, Ornithocheirus crassidens, Ornithocheirus dentatus, Ornithocheirus enchorhynchus, Ornithocheirus eurygnathus, Ornithocheirus oxyrhinus, Ornithocheirus scaphorhynchus, Ornithocheirus tenuirostris, Ornithocheirus xyphorhynchus, and Pterodactylus sagittirostris. Fourteen species are considered valid, and diagnoses are provided to all of them: Ornithocheirus simus, Lonchodraco giganteus comb. n., Lonchodraco machaerorhynchus comb. n., Lonchodraco(?) microdon comb. n., Coloborhynchus clavirostris, ‘Ornithocheirus’ capito, Camposipterus nasutus comb. n., Camposipterus(?) sedgwickii comb. n., Camposipterus(?) colorhinus comb. n., Cimoliopterus cuvieri comb. n., ‘Ornithocheirus’ polyodon, ‘Ornithocheirus’ platystomus, ‘Pterodactylus’ daviesii, and ‘Ornithocheirus’ denticulatus. These species are referred in the genera Ornithocheirus, Lonchodraco gen. n., Coloborhynchus, Cimoliopterus gen. n., and Camposipterus gen. n., but additional genera are probably present, as indicated by the use of single quotation marks throughout the text. A cladistic analysis demonstrates that Anhangueridae lies within a newly recognized clade, here

  13. Assessing the impact of a new health sector pay system upon NHS staff in England

    PubMed Central

    Buchan, James; Evans, David

    2008-01-01

    Background Pay and pay systems are a critical element in any health sector human resource strategy. Changing a pay system can be one strategy to achieve or sustain organizational change. This paper reports on the design and implementation of a completely new pay system in the National Health Service (NHS) in England. 'Agenda for Change' constituted the largest-ever attempt to introduce a new pay system in the UK public services, covering more than one million staff. Its objectives were to improve the delivery of patient care as well as enhance staff recruitment, retention and motivation, and to facilitate new ways of working. Methods This study was the first independent assessment of the impact of Agenda for Change at a local and national level. The methods used in the research were a literature review; review of 'grey' unpublished documentation provided by key stakeholders in the process; analysis of available data; interviews with key national informants (representing government, employers and trade unions), and case studies conducted with senior human resource managers in ten NHS hospitals in England Results Most of the NHS trust managers interviewed were in favour of Agenda for Change, believing it would assist in delivering improvements in patient care and staff experience. The main benefits highlighted were: 'fairness', moving different staff groups on to harmonized conditions; equal pay claim 'protection'; and scope to introduce new roles and working practices. Conclusion Agenda for Change took several years to design, and has only recently been implemented. Its very scale and central importance to NHS costs and delivery of care argues for a full assessment at an early stage so that lessons can be learned and any necessary changes made. This paper highlights weaknesses in evaluation and limitations in progress. The absence of systematically derived and applied impact indicators makes it difficult to assess impact and impact variations. Similarly, the lack of

  14. Ethnic Inequality in Choice-Driven Education Systems: A Longitudinal Study of Performance and Choice in England and Sweden

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jackson, Michelle; Jonsson, Jan O.; Rudolphi, Frida

    2012-01-01

    The authors ask whether choice-driven education systems, with comprehensive schools and mass education at the secondary and tertiary level, represented in this article by England and Sweden, provide educational opportunities for ethnic minorities. In studying educational attainment, the authors make a theoretical distinction between mechanisms…

  15. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of the pig health monitoring systems used in England.

    PubMed

    Stärk, K D C; Nevel, A

    2009-10-17

    Several systems are being used in England to record information about the health of pigs. The British Pig Health Scheme (BPHS), the National Animal Disease Information System (NADIS), the Zoonoses Action Plan (ZAP) for Salmonella and the Veterinary Investigation Diagnosis Analysis (VIDA) system have been assessed to make recommendations for their future separate or joint development. The structure, organisation, processes, data quality, dissemination, utilisation and acceptance of each system have been assessed. Information was extracted from documents and websites, and informal interviews were conducted with technical experts and stakeholders. The systems covered a broad range of objectives, used variable approaches and operated at very different scales and budgets. There was a high level of awareness and involvement by the industry. Common weaknesses of the systems were the lack of in-depth quantitative analysis of the data, the lack of assessment of each system's impact, and the unknown level of bias as a result of the voluntary or selective participation in them. PMID:19850852

  16. Lessons for major system change: centralization of stroke services in two metropolitan areas of England

    PubMed Central

    Ramsay, Angus; Perry, Catherine; Boaden, Ruth; McKevitt, Christopher; Morris, Stephen; Pursani, Nanik; Rudd, Anthony; Tyrrell, Pippa; Wolfe, Charles; Fulop, Naomi

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to identify the factors influencing the selection of a model of acute stroke service centralization to create fewer high-volume specialist units in two metropolitan areas of England (London and Greater Manchester). It considers the reasons why services were more fully centralized in London than in Greater Manchester. Methods In both areas, we analysed 316 documents and conducted 45 interviews with people leading transformation, service user organizations, providers and commissioners. Inductive and deductive analyses were used to compare the processes underpinning change in each area, with reference to propositions for achieving major system change taken from a realist review of the existing literature (the Best framework), which we critique and develop further. Results In London, system leadership was used to overcome resistance to centralization and align stakeholders to implement a centralized service model. In Greater Manchester, programme leaders relied on achieving change by consensus and, lacking decision-making authority over providers, accommodated rather than challenged resistance by implementing a less radical transformation of services. Conclusions A combination of system (top-down) and distributed (bottom-up) leadership is important in enabling change. System leadership provides the political authority required to coordinate stakeholders and to capitalize on clinical leadership by aligning it with transformation goals. Policy makers should examine how the structures of system authority, with performance management and financial levers, can be employed to coordinate transformation by aligning the disparate interests of providers and commissioners. PMID:26811375

  17. Managing complexity of aerospace systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tamaskar, Shashank

    Growing complexity of modern aerospace systems has exposed the limits of conventional systems engineering tools and challenged our ability to design them in a timely and cost effective manner. According to the US Government Accountability Office (GAO), in 2009 nearly half of the defense acquisition programs are expecting 25% or more increase in unit acquisition cost. Increase in technical complexity has been identified as one of the primary drivers behind cost-schedule overruns. Thus to assure the affordability of future aerospace systems, it is increasingly important to develop tools and capabilities for managing their complexity. We propose an approach for managing the complexity of aerospace systems to address this pertinent problem. To this end, we develop a measure that improves upon the state-of-the-art metrics and incorporates key aspects of system complexity. We address the problem of system decomposition by presenting an algorithm for module identification that generates modules to minimize integration complexity. We demonstrate the framework on diverse spacecraft and show the impact of design decisions on integration cost. The measure and the algorithm together help the designer track and manage complexity in different phases of system design. We next investigate how complexity can be used as a decision metric in the model-based design (MBD) paradigm. We propose a framework for complexity enabled design space exploration that introduces the idea of using complexity as a non-traditional design objective. We also incorporate complexity with the component based design paradigm (a sub-field of MBD) and demonstrate it on several case studies. The approach for managing complexity is a small but significant contribution to the vast field of complexity management. We envision our approach being used in concert with a suite of complexity metrics to provide an ability to measure and track complexity through different stages of design and development. This will not

  18. A national syndromic surveillance system for England and Wales using calls to a telephone helpline.

    PubMed

    Smith, G E; Cooper, D L; Loveridge, P; Chinemana, F; Gerard, E; Verlander, N

    2006-01-01

    Routine primary care data provide the means to monitor a variety of syndromes which could give early warning of health protection issues. In the United Kingdom, a national syndromic surveillance system, operated jointly by the UK Health Protection Agency (HPA) and NHS Direct (a national telephone health helpline), examines symptoms reported to NHS Direct. The aim of the system is to identify an increase in syndromes indicative of common infections and diseases, or the early stages of illness caused by the deliberate release of a biological or chemical agent. Data relating to 11 key symptoms/syndromes are received electronically from all 22 NHS Direct call centres covering England and Wales and analysed by the HPA on a daily basis. Statistically significant excesses in calls are automatically highlighted and assessed by a multi-disciplinary team. Although the surveillance system has characterised many sudden rises in syndromes reported to NHS Direct, no evidence of a biological or chemical attack has been detected. Benefits of this work, however, are early warning and tracking of rises in community morbidity (e.g. influenza-like illness, heatstroke); providing reassurance during times of perceived high risk (e.g. after the 7 July 2005 London bombs and December 2005 Buncefield oil depot fire); and timely surveillance data for influenza pandemic planning and epidemic modeling. PMID:17370968

  19. Complex Digital Visual Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeny, Robert W.

    2013-01-01

    This article identifies possibilities for data visualization as art educational research practice. The author presents an analysis of the relationship between works of art and digital visual culture, employing aspects of network analysis drawn from the work of Barabási, Newman, and Watts (2006) and Castells (1994). Describing complex network…

  20. Researching and Developing Music Provision in Special Schools in England for Children and Young People with Complex Needs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Evangeline; Ockelford, Adam; Welch, Graham

    2009-01-01

    The House of Commons Select Committee on Education (2006) estimated that around 18% of all pupils in England were categorised as having Special Educational Needs (SEN). "Around 3% of all children (250,000) had a statement of SEN and around 1% of all children were in special schools (90,000) which represent approximately one third of children with…

  1. Lost in translation? Theory, policy and practice in systems-based environmental approaches to obesity prevention in the Healthy Towns programme in England.

    PubMed

    Sautkina, Elena; Goodwin, Denise; Jones, Andy; Ogilvie, David; Petticrew, Mark; White, Martin; Cummins, Steven

    2014-09-01

    This paper explores how system-wide approaches to obesity prevention were 'theorised' and translated into practice in the 'Healthy Towns' programme implemented in nine areas in England. Semi-structured interviews with 20 informants, purposively selected to represent national and local programme development, management and delivery were undertaken. Results suggest that informants articulated a theoretical understanding of a system-wide approach to obesity prevention, but simplifying this complex task in the context of uncertainty over programme aims and objectives, and absence of a clear direction from the central government, resulted in local programmes relying on traditional multi-component approaches to programme delivery. The development of clear, practical guidance on implementation should form a central part of future system-wide approaches to obesity prevention. PMID:24973555

  2. The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.

    2011-03-01

    Operational flood forecasting systems share a fundamental challenge: forecast uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall forecasts are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall forecast used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic forecasts only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall forecasts in support of probabilistic flood forecasting. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble forecasts within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic forecasts. Although ensemble rainfall forecasts available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood forecasting systems can provide better information to the forecaster than use of the deterministic forecasts alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also forecasted rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.

  3. Dementia Coding, Workup, and Treatment in the VA New England Healthcare System

    PubMed Central

    Gagnon, David R.; Driver, Jane A.; Altincatal, Arman; Kosik, Nicole; Lanes, Stephan; Lawler, Elizabeth V.

    2014-01-01

    Growing evidence suggests that Alzheimer's disease and other types of dementia are underdiagnosed and poorly documented. In our study, we describe patterns of dementia coding and treatment in the Veteran's Administration New England Healthcare System. We conducted a retrospective cohort study with new outpatient ICD-9 codes for several types of dementia between 2002 and 2009. We examined healthcare utilization, medication use, initial dementia diagnoses, and changes in diagnoses over time by provider type. 8,999 veterans received new dementia diagnoses during the study period. Only 18.3% received a code for cognitive impairment other than dementia, most often “memory loss” (65.2%) prior to dementia diagnosis. Two-thirds of patients received their initial code from a PCP. The etiology of dementia was often never specified by ICD-9 code, even by specialists. Patients followed up exclusively by PCPs had lower rates of neuroimaging and were less likely to receive dementia medication. Emergency room visits and hospitalizations were frequent in all patients but highest in those seen by dementia specialists. Dementia medications are commonly used off-label. Our results suggest that, for the majority the patients, no prodrome of the dementia syndrome is documented with diagnostic code, and patients who do not see dementia specialists have less extensive diagnostic assessment and treatment. PMID:24701364

  4. Up or Down and Out? A Systemic Analysis of Young People's Educational Pathways in the Youth Justice System in England and Wales

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lanskey, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    Many young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales are educationally marginalised and systemic barriers to their engagement with education persist. This article presents an analytical framework for understanding how education and youth justice practices shape young people's educational pathways during their time in the youth…

  5. Paleozoic orogens in New England, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, P.; Tucker, R.D.; Bradley, D.; Berry, H.N., IV; Osberg, P.H.

    1998-01-01

    Stratigraphy and isotope geochronology in the crystalline core of the Appalachians suggest revised interpretations of the extent, nature and timing of Paleozoic orogens in New England. Five major episodes of magmatism, deformation, and high-grade regional metamorphism are recognized: Taconian (455-442 Ma), Acadian (423-385 Ma), Neo-Acadian (366-350 Ma), Late Pennsylvanian (300-290 Ma) and Alleghanian (280-260 Ma). In the Taconian, the passive margin of Laurentia was subducted below a complex magmatic arc lasting from 480 to 442 Ma, founded in part on continental crust of a Medial New England terrane with possible affinities with Amazonia. Questions about Medial New England involve its coherence as a single plate, and the nature of its underlying crust. The Acadian began in Late Silurian as a collision between the amalgamated Laurentia-Medial New England and outer belts of Composite Avalon along a cryptic suture in coastal Maine, and progressed northwestward to the Connecticut Valley basin by mid-Devonian. Tonalitic-granitic magmatism and up to granulite-facies metamorphism culminated in Early Devonian, possibly tied to lithospheric detachment below the subducting northwestern plate and consequent asthenosphere upwelling. Newly discovered Neo-Acadian Late Devonian to Early Mississippian tonalitic-granitic magmatism, up to granulite-facies metamorphism, and severe deformation in central Massachusetts took place in a plate context poorly understood. Late Pennsylvanian effects include magmatism, metamorphism, and deformation near south New England gneiss domes and the Sebago batholith, and development of the right-lateral Norumbega fault system. Permian Alleghanian effects include penetrative deformation, granitic intrusions and up to sillimanite-grade metamorphism of Pennsylvanian beds in southeastern New England. These last two episodes relate to the arrival of Africa.

  6. Educational Assessment in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Isaacs, Tina

    2010-01-01

    This profile explains the assessment system in England, concentrating on those aspects that are related to government policy. It begins by putting the system in context; it then describes the national educational structure, curriculum and assessment arrangements. The government agencies responsible for carrying out education policies are…

  7. The complexity of anatomical systems

    PubMed Central

    Grizzi, Fabio; Chiriva-Internati, Maurizio

    2005-01-01

    Background The conception of anatomical entities as a hierarchy of infinitely graduated forms and the increase in the number of observed anatomical sub-entities and structural variables has generated a growing complexity, thus highlighting new properties of organised biological matter. Results (1) Complexity is so pervasive in the anatomical world that it has come to be considered as a primary characteristic of anatomical systems. (2) Anatomical entities, when viewed at microscopic as well as macroscopic level of observation, show a different degree of complexity. (3) Complexity can reside in the structure of the anatomical system (having many diverse parts with varying interactions or an intricate architecture) or in its behaviour. Often complexity in structure and behaviour go together. (4) Complex systems admit many descriptions (ways of looking at the system) each of which is only partially true. Each way of looking at a complex system requires its own description, its own mode of analysis and its own breaking down of the system in different parts; (5) Almost all the anatomical entities display hierarchical forms: their component structures at different spatial scales or their process at different time scales are related to each other. Conclusion The need to find a new way of observing and measuring anatomical entities, and objectively quantifying their different structural changes, prompted us to investigate the non-Euclidean geometries and the theories of complexity, and to apply their concepts to human anatomy. This attempt has led us to reflect upon the complex significance of the shape of an observed anatomical entity. Its changes have been defined in relation to variations in its status: from a normal (i.e. natural) to a pathological or altered state introducing the concepts of kinematics and dynamics of anatomical forms, speed of their changes, and that of scale of their observation. PMID:16029490

  8. Challenges in complex systems science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    San Miguel, M.; Johnson, J. H.; Kertesz, J.; Kaski, K.; Díaz-Guilera, A.; MacKay, R. S.; Loreto, V.; Érdi, P.; Helbing, D.

    2012-11-01

    FuturICT foundations are social science, complex systems science, and ICT. The main concerns and challenges in the science of complex systems in the context of FuturICT are laid out in this paper with special emphasis on the Complex Systems route to Social Sciences. This include complex systems having: many heterogeneous interacting parts; multiple scales; complicated transition laws; unexpected or unpredicted emergence; sensitive dependence on initial conditions; path-dependent dynamics; networked hierarchical connectivities; interaction of autonomous agents; self-organisation; non-equilibrium dynamics; combinatorial explosion; adaptivity to changing environments; co-evolving subsystems; ill-defined boundaries; and multilevel dynamics. In this context, science is seen as the process of abstracting the dynamics of systems from data. This presents many challenges including: data gathering by large-scale experiment, participatory sensing and social computation, managing huge distributed dynamic and heterogeneous databases; moving from data to dynamical models, going beyond correlations to cause-effect relationships, understanding the relationship between simple and comprehensive models with appropriate choices of variables, ensemble modeling and data assimilation, modeling systems of systems of systems with many levels between micro and macro; and formulating new approaches to prediction, forecasting, and risk, especially in systems that can reflect on and change their behaviour in response to predictions, and systems whose apparently predictable behaviour is disrupted by apparently unpredictable rare or extreme events. These challenges are part of the FuturICT agenda.

  9. Data model and relational database design for the New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS)

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tessler, Steven

    2001-01-01

    The New England Water-Use Data System (NEWUDS) is a database for the storage and retrieval of water-use data. NEWUDS can handle data covering many facets of water use, including (1) tracking various types of water-use activities (withdrawals, returns, transfers, distributions, consumptive-use, wastewater collection, and treatment); (2) the description, classification and location of places and organizations involved in water-use activities; (3) details about measured or estimated volumes of water associated with water-use activities; and (4) information about data sources and water resources associated with water use. In NEWUDS, each water transaction occurs unidirectionally between two site objects, and the sites and conveyances form a water network. The core entities in the NEWUDS model are site, conveyance, transaction/rate, location, and owner. Other important entities include water resources (used for withdrawals and returns), data sources, and aliases. Multiple water-exchange estimates can be stored for individual transactions based on different methods or data sources. Storage of user-defined details is accommodated for several of the main entities. Numerous tables containing classification terms facilitate detailed descriptions of data items and can be used for routine or custom data summarization. NEWUDS handles single-user and aggregate-user water-use data, can be used for large or small water-network projects, and is available as a stand-alone Microsoft? Access database structure. Users can customize and extend the database, link it to other databases, or implement the design in other relational database applications.

  10. Opening Up Jewish Education to Inspection: The Impact of the OFSTED Inspection System in England.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Keiner, Judy

    1996-01-01

    Analysis of the first government inspections of Jewish schools in England by the Office for Standards in Education (OFSTED) shows mismatches between the schools' declared aims for Jewish Studies, and their practices, as well as problems in the teaching of Hebrew. (SLD)

  11. Monopolising the Examining Board System in England: A Theoretical Perspective in Support of Reform

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelly, Anthony

    2014-01-01

    The fiascoes that seem to accompany the annual publication of examination results in England, the subsequent inquiries instituted to ensure they "never happen again" and the Secretary of State's decision, reversed six months later because of fears about possible EU legal challenges, to "end competition between exam boards"…

  12. Language Networks as Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Max Kueiming; Ou, Sheue-Jen

    2008-01-01

    Starting in the late eighties, with a growing discontent with analytical methods in science and the growing power of computers, researchers began to study complex systems such as living organisms, evolution of genes, biological systems, brain neural networks, epidemics, ecology, economy, social networks, etc. In the early nineties, the research…

  13. Mineralogical Evidence for the Palaeohydrogeological Stability of a Deep Groundwater System in Fractured Rock, in West Cumbria, Northwest England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milodowski, A. E.; Gillespie, M. R.; Chenery, S. R. N.; Naden, J.; Shaw, R. P.

    2014-12-01

    An important requirement of the safety assessment for a geological disposal facility (GDF) for radioactive waste is to be able to demonstrate the long-term chemical stability of the groundwater system at repository depth over the long period of time during which the waste will be a hazard, typically up to one million years. Of particular concern in the UK is the potential for oxidising groundwater to penetrate to repository depth during periods of glaciation, thereby increasing the mobility of some transuranic radionuclides.Between 1990 and 1998, United Kingdom Nirex Limited carried out geological investigations into the suitability of a potential site in the Sellafield area of NW England, for a GDF for L/ILW. As part of these investigations, detailed petrological analysis of fracture mineralisation in 23 deep boreholes identified a complex sequence of mineralisation events referred to as ME1-ME9. The distribution of the ME9 calcite mineralisation correlates closely with present-day groundwater flows. The ME9 calcite has been studied in more detail to understand the evolution of the deep groundwater system. The morphology and growth zoning characteristics of the calcites reflects the groundwater chemistry. Freshwater calcites display c-axis flattened to equant crystals, and are non-ferroan and strongly zoned with Mn-rich and Mn-free bands. Deeper saline-zone calcites display c-axis elongated crystals, with high Mn:Fe and low Mn:Fe growth zones. Calcite in the transition zone between the saline and fresh groundwater display saline-type cores overgrown by freshwater-type calcite, indicating a small depression of the position of the transition zone during the growth of the calcites. Sr isotope ratios and fluid inclusion chemistry confirm a link between ME9 calcite and the present regional groundwater system. Modelling of the oxygen isotope data indicates that some growth zones in the ME9 calcite precipitated from groundwater potentially containing a significant

  14. 1998 Complex Systems Summer School

    SciTech Connect

    1998-12-15

    For the past eleven years a group of institutes, centers, and universities throughout the country have sponsored a summer school in Santa Fe, New Mexico as part of an interdisciplinary effort to promote the understanding of complex systems. The goal of these summer schools is to provide graduate students, postdoctoral fellows and active research scientists with an introduction to the study of complex behavior in mathematical, physical, and living systems. The Center for Nonlinear Studies supported the eleventh in this series of highly successful schools in Santa Fe in June, 1998.

  15. Synchronization in complex dynamical networks coupled with complex chaotic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-Jun; Wang, Bo

    2015-11-01

    This paper investigates synchronization in complex dynamical networks with time delay and perturbation. The node of complex dynamical networks is composed of complex chaotic system. A complex feedback controller is designed to realize different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function when complex dynamical networks realize synchronization. The synchronization scaling function is changed from real field to complex field. Synchronization in complex dynamical networks with constant delay and time-varying coupling delay are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  16. Physical approach to complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwapień, Jarosław; Drożdż, Stanisław

    2012-06-01

    Typically, complex systems are natural or social systems which consist of a large number of nonlinearly interacting elements. These systems are open, they interchange information or mass with environment and constantly modify their internal structure and patterns of activity in the process of self-organization. As a result, they are flexible and easily adapt to variable external conditions. However, the most striking property of such systems is the existence of emergent phenomena which cannot be simply derived or predicted solely from the knowledge of the systems’ structure and the interactions among their individual elements. This property points to the holistic approaches which require giving parallel descriptions of the same system on different levels of its organization. There is strong evidence-consolidated also in the present review-that different, even apparently disparate complex systems can have astonishingly similar characteristics both in their structure and in their behaviour. One can thus expect the existence of some common, universal laws that govern their properties. Physics methodology proves helpful in addressing many of the related issues. In this review, we advocate some of the computational methods which in our opinion are especially fruitful in extracting information on selected-but at the same time most representative-complex systems like human brain, financial markets and natural language, from the time series representing the observables associated with these systems. The properties we focus on comprise the collective effects and their coexistence with noise, long-range interactions, the interplay between determinism and flexibility in evolution, scale invariance, criticality, multifractality and hierarchical structure. The methods described either originate from “hard” physics-like the random matrix theory-and then were transmitted to other fields of science via the field of complex systems research, or they originated elsewhere but

  17. Disorder in Complex Human System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akdeniz, K. Gediz

    2011-11-01

    Since the world of human and whose life becomes more and more complex every day because of the digital technology and under the storm of knowledge (media, internet, governmental and non-governmental organizations, etc...) the simulation is rapidly growing in the social systems and in human behaviors. The formation of the body and mutual interactions are left to digital technological, communication mechanisms and coding the techno genetics of the body. Deconstruction begins everywhere. The linear simulation mechanism with modern realities are replaced by the disorder simulation of human behaviors with awareness realities. In this paper I would like to introduce simulation theory of "Disorder Sensitive Human Behaviors". I recently proposed this theory to critique the role of disorder human behaviors in social systems. In this theory the principle of realty is the chaotic awareness of the complexity of human systems inside of principle of modern thinking in Baudrillard's simulation theory. Proper examples will be also considered to investigate the theory.

  18. A real time data acquisition system by satellite relay. [hydrology and flood measurement in New England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cooper, S.

    1974-01-01

    The overall aim was to evaluate the future usefulness of satellites in the performance of coordination and management functions related to the operation of flood control and other multipurpose projects in New England. Results on the data collection portion of the work are presented. The principal task was to develop statistics that demonstrate the relationship between conventional means of acquiring hydrologic data and the contribution made by using the satellite and its data collection platforms. Main interest was in determining the availability, reliability and usability of the data. Significant results on DCS show that the DCP's are reliable and useful and satellite data collection appears feasible on a nationwide basis.

  19. Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System

    SciTech Connect

    2004-10-14

    EMCAS is a model developed for the simulation and analysis of electricity markets. As power markets are relatively new and still continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time and how market participants may act and react to the changing economic, financial, and regulatory environments in which they operate. A new and rather promising approach applied in the EMCAS software is to model the electricity market as a complex adaptive system using an agent-based modeling and simulation scheme. With its unique combination of various novel approaches, the Agent Based Modeling System (ABMS) provides the ability to capture and investigate the complex interactions between the physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and the economic behavior of market participants that are a trademark of the newly emerging markets.

  20. Electricity Market Complex Adaptive System

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2004-10-14

    EMCAS is a model developed for the simulation and analysis of electricity markets. As power markets are relatively new and still continue to evolve, there is a growing need for advanced modeling approaches that simulate the behavior of electricity markets over time and how market participants may act and react to the changing economic, financial, and regulatory environments in which they operate. A new and rather promising approach applied in the EMCAS software is tomore » model the electricity market as a complex adaptive system using an agent-based modeling and simulation scheme. With its unique combination of various novel approaches, the Agent Based Modeling System (ABMS) provides the ability to capture and investigate the complex interactions between the physical infrastructures (generation, transmission, and distribution) and the economic behavior of market participants that are a trademark of the newly emerging markets.« less

  1. Human Error In Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, Nancy M.; Rouse, William B.

    1991-01-01

    Report presents results of research aimed at understanding causes of human error in such complex systems as aircraft, nuclear powerplants, and chemical processing plants. Research considered both slips (errors of action) and mistakes (errors of intention), and influence of workload on them. Results indicated that: humans respond to conditions in which errors expected by attempting to reduce incidence of errors; and adaptation to conditions potent influence on human behavior in discretionary situations.

  2. Semiotics of constructed complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Landauer, C.; Bellman, K.L.

    1996-12-31

    The scope of this paper is limited to software and other constructed complex systems mediated or integrated by software. Our research program studies foundational issues that we believe will help us develop a theoretically sound approach to constructing complex systems. There have really been only two theoretical approaches that have helped us understand and develop computational systems: mathematics and linguistics. We show how semiotics can also play a role, whether we think of it as part of these other theories or as subsuming one or both of them. We describe our notion of {open_quotes}computational semiotics{close_quotes}, which we define to be the study of computational methods of dealing with symbols, show how such a theory might be formed, and describe what we might get from it in terms of more interesting use of symbols by computing systems. This research was supported in part by the Federal Highway Administration`s Office of Advanced Research and by the Advanced Research Projects Agency`s Software and Intelligent Systems Technology Office.

  3. A Combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach for the analysis of Large Scale Atmospheric Features and River Floods in England and Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Conticello, Federico; Cioffi, Francesco; Lall, Upmanu; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    Floods and other hydroclimatic extremes may represent specific states of organization of the atmospheric circulation. Given this hypothesis an open question is how best to identify such states, and their space-time persistence. Such a mapping would facilitate a physically meaningful identification of the potential severity, frequency and duration of such events in future climates. With this in view, the link between large scale atmospheric circulation and the extreme floods in Germany and England is investigated by a combined Kohonen Networks and Complex Networks approach. Historical data from 57 streamflow gages in England and 68 in Germany and the Reanalysis Historical Data of the Atmospheric Circulation Fields, bounded from 90W to 70E and from 20N to 80N, are used for the purpose. The common period of record is from 1960 to 2012. A finite number of typical atmospheric configurations of the considered region are identified by using the Kohonen Networks approach. This approach is preceded by the application of the Principal Component Analysis of the selected atmospheric variable; a number of PCs is retained to explain more than the 99% of the variance. Then the historical sequence of the atmospheric fields, by using k-nearest neighbor methods, is transformed into a binary matrix which identifies, at each time step, the atmospheric configuration most similar to one of the typical ones identified by the Kohonen Network. A further binary matrix is constructed by using as a threshold the 99th percentile of the discharge rates. Finally the Event Synchronization method is applied determining synchronization, causality and delay between the extreme floods in each streamflow gage and the associated atmospheric circulation feature. We find that the proposed approach can be useful and effective to identify the most critical atmospheric circulation patterns responsible of the extreme floods and thus to be used as part of a prediction strategy.

  4. Pressure ulcer and wounds reporting in NHS hospitals in England part 2: Survey of monitoring systems.

    PubMed

    Coleman, Susanne; Smith, Isabelle L; Nixon, Jane; Wilson, Lyn; Brown, Sarah

    2016-02-01

    This is the second of a two related papers describing work undertaken to compare and contrast Pressure Ulcer (PU) monitoring systems across NHS in-patient facilities in England. The work comprised 1) a PU/Wound Audit (PUWA) and 2) a survey of PU monitoring systems. This second paper focusses on the survey which explores differences in the implementation of PU adverse event monitoring systems in 24 NHS hospital Trusts in England. The survey questionnaire comprised 41 items incorporating single and multiple response options and free-text items and was completed by the PUWA Trust lead in liaison with key people in the organisation. All 24 (100%) Trusts returned the questionnaire, with high levels of data completeness (99.1%). The questionnaire results showed variation between Trusts in relation to the recording of PUs and their reporting as part of NHS prevalence and incident monitoring systems and to Trust boards and healthcare commissioners including the inclusion (or not) of device ulcers, unstageable ulcers, Deep Tissue Injury, combined PUs/Incontinence Associated Dermatitis, category ≥ 1 ulcers or category ≥ 2 ulcers, inherited ulcers, acquired ulcers, avoidable and unavoidable ulcers and the definition of Present On Admission. These fundamental differences in reporting preclude Trust to Trust comparisons of PU prevalence and incident reporting and monitoring systems due to variation in local application and data collection methods. The results of this work and the PUWA led to the development of recommendations for PU monitoring practice, many of which are internationally relevant. PMID:26774821

  5. An American knowledge base in England - Alternate implementations of an expert system flight status monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, G. F.; Graves, A. T.; Disbrow, J. D.; Duke, E. L.

    1989-01-01

    A joint activity between the Dryden Flight Research Facility of the NASA Ames Research Center (Ames-Dryden) and the Royal Aerospace Establishment (RAE) on knowledge-based systems has been agreed. Under the agreement, a flight status monitor knowledge base developed at Ames-Dryden has been implemented using the real-time AI (artificial intelligence) toolkit MUSE, which was developed in the UK. Here, the background to the cooperation is described and the details of the flight status monitor and a prototype MUSE implementation are presented. It is noted that the capabilities of the expert-system flight status monitor to monitor data downlinked from the flight test aircraft and to generate information on the state and health of the system for the test engineers provides increased safety during flight testing of new systems. Furthermore, the expert-system flight status monitor provides the systems engineers with ready access to the large amount of information required to describe a complex aircraft system.

  6. Modeling Power Systems as Complex Adaptive Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chassin, David P.; Malard, Joel M.; Posse, Christian; Gangopadhyaya, Asim; Lu, Ning; Katipamula, Srinivas; Mallow, J V.

    2004-12-30

    Physical analogs have shown considerable promise for understanding the behavior of complex adaptive systems, including macroeconomics, biological systems, social networks, and electric power markets. Many of today's most challenging technical and policy questions can be reduced to a distributed economic control problem. Indeed, economically based control of large-scale systems is founded on the conjecture that the price-based regulation (e.g., auctions, markets) results in an optimal allocation of resources and emergent optimal system control. This report explores the state-of-the-art physical analogs for understanding the behavior of some econophysical systems and deriving stable and robust control strategies for using them. We review and discuss applications of some analytic methods based on a thermodynamic metaphor, according to which the interplay between system entropy and conservation laws gives rise to intuitive and governing global properties of complex systems that cannot be otherwise understood. We apply these methods to the question of how power markets can be expected to behave under a variety of conditions.

  7. Sustainability, Complexity and Learning: Insights from Complex Systems Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Espinosa, A.; Porter, T.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this research is to explore core contributions from two different approaches to complexity management in organisations aiming to improve their sustainability,: the Viable Systems Model (VSM), and the Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS). It is proposed to perform this by summarising the main insights each approach offers to…

  8. Multilevel Complex Networks and Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caldarelli, Guido

    2014-03-01

    Network theory has been a powerful tool to model isolated complex systems. However, the classical approach does not take into account the interactions often present among different systems. Hence, the scientific community is nowadays concentrating the efforts on the foundations of new mathematical tools for understanding what happens when multiple networks interact. The case of economic and financial networks represents a paramount example of multilevel networks. In the case of trade, trade among countries the different levels can be described by the different granularity of the trading relations. Indeed, we have now data from the scale of consumers to that of the country level. In the case of financial institutions, we have a variety of levels at the same scale. For example one bank can appear in the interbank networks, ownership network and cds networks in which the same institution can take place. In both cases the systemically important vertices need to be determined by different procedures of centrality definition and community detection. In this talk I will present some specific cases of study related to these topics and present the regularities found. Acknowledged support from EU FET Project ``Multiplex'' 317532.

  9. Multiscale Resilience of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J. M.; Giangola-Murzyn, A.; Hoang Cong, T.

    2014-12-01

    We first argue the need for well defined resilience metrics to better evaluate the resilience of complex systems such as (peri-)urban flood management systems. We review both the successes and limitations of resilience metrics in the framework of dynamical systems and their generalization in the framework of the viability theory. We then point out that the most important step to achieve is to define resilience across scales instead of doing it at a given scale. Our preliminary, critical analysis of the series of attempts to define an operational resilience metrics led us to consider a scale invariant metrics based on the scale independent codimension of extreme singularities. Multifractal downscaling of climate scenarios can be considered as a first illustration. We focussed on a flood scenario evaluation method with the help of two singularities γ_s and γ_Max, corresponding respectively to an effective and a probable maximum singularity, that yield an innovative framework to address the issues of flood resilience systems in a scale independent manner. Indeed, the stationarity of the universal multifractal parameters would result into a rather stable value of probable maximum singularity γ_s. By fixing the limit of acceptability for a maximum flood water depth at a given scale, with a corresponding singularity, we effectively fix the threshold of the probable maximum singularity γ_s as a criterion of the flood resilience we accept. Then various scenarios of flood resilient measures could be simulated with the help of Multi-Hydro under upcoming climat scenarios. The scenarios that result in estimates of either γ_Max or γ_s below the pre-selected γ_s value will assure the effective flood resilience of the whole modeled system across scales. The research for this work was supported, in part, by the EU FP7 SMARTesT and INTERREG IVB RainGain projects.

  10. Complexity and synchronization in stochastic chaotic systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Son Dang, Thai; Palit, Sanjay Kumar; Mukherjee, Sayan; Hoang, Thang Manh; Banerjee, Santo

    2016-02-01

    We investigate the complexity of a hyperchaotic dynamical system perturbed by noise and various nonlinear speech and music signals. The complexity is measured by the weighted recurrence entropy of the hyperchaotic and stochastic systems. The synchronization phenomenon between two stochastic systems with complex coupling is also investigated. These criteria are tested on chaotic and perturbed systems by mean conditional recurrence and normalized synchronization error. Numerical results including surface plots, normalized synchronization errors, complexity variations etc show the effectiveness of the proposed analysis.

  11. Cooperative behaviour in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karsai, Márton

    2009-07-01

    In my PhD thesis I studied cooperative phenomena arise in complex systems using the methods of statistical and computational physics. The aim of my work was also to study the critical behaviour of interacting many-body systems during their phase transitions and describe their universal features analytically and by means of numerical calculations. In order to do so I completed studies in four different subjects. My first investigated subject was a study of non-equilibrium phase transitions in weighted scale-free networks. The second problem I examined was the ferromagnetic random bond Potts model with large values of q on evolving scale-free networks which problem is equivalent to an optimal cooperation problem. The third examined problem was related to the large-q sate random bond Potts model also and I examined the critical density of clusters which touched a certain border of a perpendicular strip like geometry and expected to hold analytical forms deduced from conformal invariance. The last investigated problem was a study of the non-equilibrium dynamical behaviour of the antiferromagnetic Ising model on two-dimensional triangular lattice at zero temperature in the absence of external field and at the Kosterlitz-Thouless phase transition point.

  12. Collaboration in Complex Medical Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Xiao, Yan; Mankenzie, Colin F.

    1998-01-01

    Improving our understanding of collaborative work in complex environments has the potential for developing effective supporting technologies, personnel training paradigms, and design principles for multi-crew workplaces. USing a sophisticated audio-video-data acquisition system and a corresponding analysis system, the researchers at University of Maryland have been able to study in detail team performance during real trauma patient resuscitation. The first study reported here was on coordination mechanisms and on characteristics of coordination breakdowns. One of the key findings was that implicit communications were an important coordination mechanism (e.g. through the use of shared workspace and event space). The second study was on the sources of uncertainty during resuscitation. Although incoming trauma patients' status is inherently uncertain, the findings suggest that much of the uncertainty felt by care providers was related to communication and coordination. These two studies demonstrate the value of and need for creating a real-life laboratory for studying team performance with the use of comprehensive and integrated data acquisition and analysis tools.

  13. Reduction of Subjective and Objective System Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Watson, Michael D.

    2015-01-01

    Occam's razor is often used in science to define the minimum criteria to establish a physical or philosophical idea or relationship. Albert Einstein is attributed the saying "everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler". These heuristic ideas are based on a belief that there is a minimum state or set of states for a given system or phenomena. In looking at system complexity, these heuristics point us to an idea that complexity can be reduced to a minimum. How then, do we approach a reduction in complexity? Complexity has been described as a subjective concept and an objective measure of a system. Subjective complexity is based on human cognitive comprehension of the functions and inter relationships of a system. Subjective complexity is defined by the ability to fully comprehend the system. Simplifying complexity, in a subjective sense, is thus gaining a deeper understanding of the system. As Apple's Jonathon Ive has stated," It's not just minimalism or the absence of clutter. It involves digging through the depth of complexity. To be truly simple, you have to go really deep". Simplicity is not the absence of complexity but a deeper understanding of complexity. Subjective complexity, based on this human comprehension, cannot then be discerned from the sociological concept of ignorance. The inability to comprehend a system can be either a lack of knowledge, an inability to understand the intricacies of a system, or both. Reduction in this sense is based purely on a cognitive ability to understand the system and no system then may be truly complex. From this view, education and experience seem to be the keys to reduction or eliminating complexity. Objective complexity, is the measure of the systems functions and interrelationships which exist independent of human comprehension. Jonathon Ive's statement does not say that complexity is removed, only that the complexity is understood. From this standpoint, reduction of complexity can be approached

  14. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York.

    PubMed

    Phillips, P J; Schubert, C; Argue, D; Fisher, I; Furlong, E T; Foreman, W; Gray, J; Chalmers, A

    2015-04-15

    Septic-system discharges can be an important source of micropollutants (including pharmaceuticals and endocrine active compounds) to adjacent groundwater and surface water systems. Groundwater samples were collected from well networks tapping glacial till in New England (NE) and sandy surficial aquifer New York (NY) during one sampling round in 2011. The NE network assesses the effect of a single large septic system that receives discharge from an extended health care facility for the elderly. The NY network assesses the effect of many small septic systems used seasonally on a densely populated portion of Fire Island. The data collected from these two networks indicate that hydrogeologic and demographic factors affect micropollutant concentrations in these systems. The highest micropollutant concentrations from the NE network were present in samples collected from below the leach beds and in a well downgradient of the leach beds. Total concentrations for personal care/domestic use compounds, pharmaceutical compounds and plasticizer compounds generally ranged from 1 to over 20 μg/L in the NE network samples. High tris(2-butoxyethyl phosphate) plasticizer concentrations in wells beneath and downgradient of the leach beds (>20 μg/L) may reflect the presence of this compound in cleaning agents at the extended health-care facility. The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely

  15. Scale Effect in Nutrient Transport along a Rural River System: THE River Eden, Cumbria, Northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tijani, F. O.; Bathurst, J. C.; Quinn, P. F.

    2014-12-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities and this increase downstream. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Higher nitrate concentration is associated with the period of low flow (strongest negative relationship, R2 = 0.97, was recorded in autumn sampling campaign at a gauging station). In contrast, phosphorus and suspended sediment are positively associated with discharge (strongest relationship (R2= 0.97) for total P were recorded in spring campaign at a gauging station). Similarly the dryness or wetness of a season affects the nutrient concentrations. Thus, it appears that hydrology and land use

  16. Scale effect in nutrient transport along a rural river system: the River Eden, Cumbria, northwest, England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oladapo Tijani, Fatai; Bathurst, James; Quinn, Paul

    2015-04-01

    Only a limited amount of information derived from studies conducted at small catchment scales can be transferred to large scales because of the non-linear scale effects, thus necessitating studies (including nutrient concentrations and yields) across a range of scales. Here we present results from an investigation of spatial scale pattern and temporal variability of nutrient concentration in the River Eden in northwest England, a nested catchment stretching from Gais Gill (1.1 km2) to Great Corby (1373 km2). The monitoring involved seasonal campaigns and spot sampling of river water quality, using two United Kingdom national catchment study platforms. These are the Catchment Hydrology And Sustainable Management (CHASM) project, that provides a large spatial scale study platform along the Eden, and the Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) project that provides high resolution data for contrasting land uses that could help to explain, in detail, the mechanisms for transport of nutrients to the river. Nitrate concentration shows a clear increasing trend with the catchment area and there is highly significant difference (P<0.001) among the catchments. Compared with the headwater areas, phosphorus (P) and suspended sediment (SS) concentrations are significantly higher (P<0.05) downstream but do not show a very clear spatial pattern. An alternative explanation was therefore sought for their distribution along the river. Generally, intensity of agricultural activities appears to influence the concentrations of these water quality parameters. The field data show that the amount of nutrients and suspended sediment is higher in catchments with higher farming activities. This underscores the importance of the distribution of agricultural land use as a driving force in nutrient transport in River Eden. Agricultural production generally increases downstream and may therefore appear to support a spatial scale dependency in nutrient yield. Higher nitrate concentration is associated

  17. England's New Market Based System of Student Education: An Initial Report. Research & Occasional Paper Series: CSHE.7.13

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2013-01-01

    In 2012 the Conservative-Liberal Democrat Government introduced a number of reforms to the higher education system in England. The main change was to abolish direct state subsidies for the teaching of most subjects, and replace them with a state-subsidised tuition fee of up to $9,000 (US $13,700). A number of other changes were also made, all with…

  18. Proteins as paradigms of complex systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Fenimore, P. W.; Frauenfelder, Hans,; Young, R. D.

    2003-03-26

    The science of complexity has moved to center stage within the past few decades. Complex systems range from glasses to the immune system and the brain. Glasses are too simple to possess all aspects of complexity; brains are too complex to expose common concepts and laws of complexity. Proteins, however, are systems where many concepts and laws of complexity can be explored experimentally, theoretically, and computationally. Such studies have elucidated crucial aspects. The energy landscape has emerged as one central concept; it describes the free energy of a system as a function of temperature and the coordinates of all relevant atoms. A second concept is that of fluctuations. Without fluctuations, proteins would be dead and life impossible. A third concept is slaving. Proteins are not isolated systems; they are embedded in cells and membranes. Slaving arises when the fluctuations in the surroundings of a protein dominate many of the motions of the protein proper.

  19. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-04

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  20. Restricted Complexity Framework for Nonlinear Adaptive Control in Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Williams, Rube B.

    2004-02-01

    Control law adaptation that includes implicit or explicit adaptive state estimation, can be a fundamental underpinning for the success of intelligent control in complex systems, particularly during subsystem failures, where vital system states and parameters can be impractical or impossible to measure directly. A practical algorithm is proposed for adaptive state filtering and control in nonlinear dynamic systems when the state equations are unknown or are too complex to model analytically. The state equations and inverse plant model are approximated by using neural networks. A framework for a neural network based nonlinear dynamic inversion control law is proposed, as an extrapolation of prior developed restricted complexity methodology used to formulate the adaptive state filter. Examples of adaptive filter performance are presented for an SSME simulation with high pressure turbine failure to support extrapolations to adaptive control problems.

  1. Analysis of Hyperchaotic Complex Lorenz Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.; Ahmed, Mansour E.; Mahmoud, Emad E.

    This paper introduces and analyzes new hyperchaotic complex Lorenz systems. These systems are 6-dimensional systems of real first order autonomous differential equations and their dynamics are very complicated and rich. In this study we extend the idea of adding state feedback control and introduce the complex periodic forces to generate hyperchaotic behaviors. The fractional Lyapunov dimension of the hyperchaotic attractors of these systems is calculated. Bifurcation analysis is used to demonstrate chaotic and hyperchaotic behaviors of our new systems. Dynamical systems where the main variables are complex appear in many important fields of physics and communications.

  2. A new laboratory-based surveillance system (Respiratory DataMart System) for influenza and other respiratory viruses in England: results and experience from 2009 to 2012.

    PubMed

    Zhao, H; Green, H; Lackenby, A; Donati, M; Ellis, J; Thompson, C; Bermingham, A; Field, J; Sebastianpillai, P; Zambon, M; Watson, Jm; Pebody, R

    2014-01-01

    During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, a new laboratory-based virological sentinel surveillance system, the Respiratory DataMart System (RDMS), was established in a network of 14 Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England (PHE)) and National Health Service (NHS) laboratories in England. Laboratory results (both positive and negative) were systematically collected from all routinely tested clinical respiratory samples for a range of respiratory viruses including influenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus, adenovirus and human metapneumovirus (hMPV). The RDMS also monitored the occurrence of antiviral resistance of influenza viruses. Data from the RDMS for the 2009–2012 period showed that the 2009 pandemic influenza virus caused three waves of activity with different intensities during the pandemic and post pandemic periods. Peaks in influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 positivity (defined as number of positive samples per total number of samples tested) were seen in summer and autumn in 2009, with slightly higher peak positivity observed in the first post-pandemic season in 2010/2011. The influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus strain almost completely disappeared in the second postpandemic season in 2011/2012. The RDMS findings are consistent with other existing community-based virological and clinical surveillance systems. With a large sample size, this new system provides a robust supplementary mechanism, through the collection of routinely available laboratory data at minimum extra cost, to monitor influenza as well as other respiratory virus activity. A near real-time, daily reporting mechanism in the RDMS was established during the London 2012 Olympic and Paralympic Games. Furthermore, this system can be quickly adapted and used to monitor future influenza pandemics and other major outbreaks of respiratory infectious disease, including novel pathogens. PMID:24480060

  3. Local Authorities and the Education of Young People with Sickle Cell Disorders in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, S. M.; Abuateya, H.; Atkin, K.; Culley, L. A.; Dyson, S. E.; Rowley, D. T.

    2008-01-01

    The successful inclusion of minority ethnic pupils with sickle cell disorders (SCD) raises a number of challenges for educational systems. In England, local education authorities were important drivers for innovative responses to complex needs and the former Inner London Education Authority produced guidance in 1989 on SCD in schools. Local…

  4. The Ontologies of Complexity and Learning about Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jacobson, Michael J.; Kapur, Manu; So, Hyo-Jeong; Lee, June

    2011-01-01

    This paper discusses a study of students learning core conceptual perspectives from recent scientific research on complexity using a hypermedia learning environment in which different types of scaffolding were provided. Three comparison groups used a hypermedia system with agent-based models and scaffolds for problem-based learning activities that…

  5. Social networks as embedded complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Benham-Hutchins, Marge; Clancy, Thomas R

    2010-09-01

    As systems evolve over time, their natural tendency is to become increasingly more complex. Studies in the field of complex systems have generated new perspectives on management in social organizations such as hospitals. Much of this research appears as a natural extension of the cross-disciplinary field of systems theory. This is the 15th in a series of articles applying complex systems science to the traditional management concepts of planning, organizing, directing, coordinating, and controlling. In this article, the authors discuss healthcare social networks as a hierarchy of embedded complex adaptive systems. The authors further examine the use of social network analysis tools as a means to understand complex communication patterns and reduce medical errors. PMID:20798616

  6. Nervous System Complexity Baffles Scientists.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Jeffrey L.

    1982-01-01

    New research findings about how nerve cells transmit signals are forcing researchers to overhaul their simplistic ideas about the nervous system. Topics highlighted include the multiple role of peptides in the nervous system, receptor molecules, and molecules that form ion channels within membranes. (Author/JN)

  7. Systems chemistry: Selecting complex behaviour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bissette, Andrew J.; Fletcher, Stephen P.

    2015-01-01

    Creating chemical systems that can model living systems is far from easy. However, the evolution of oil droplets in water through the application of artificial selective pressure to produce droplets with dramatically different -- yet specific -- behaviours, is an encouraging step in this direction.

  8. Statistically Validated Networks in Bipartite Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tumminello, Michele; Miccichè, Salvatore; Lillo, Fabrizio; Piilo, Jyrki; Mantegna, Rosario N.

    2011-01-01

    Many complex systems present an intrinsic bipartite structure where elements of one set link to elements of the second set. In these complex systems, such as the system of actors and movies, elements of one set are qualitatively different than elements of the other set. The properties of these complex systems are typically investigated by constructing and analyzing a projected network on one of the two sets (for example the actor network or the movie network). Complex systems are often very heterogeneous in the number of relationships that the elements of one set establish with the elements of the other set, and this heterogeneity makes it very difficult to discriminate links of the projected network that are just reflecting system's heterogeneity from links relevant to unveil the properties of the system. Here we introduce an unsupervised method to statistically validate each link of a projected network against a null hypothesis that takes into account system heterogeneity. We apply the method to a biological, an economic and a social complex system. The method we propose is able to detect network structures which are very informative about the organization and specialization of the investigated systems, and identifies those relationships between elements of the projected network that cannot be explained simply by system heterogeneity. We also show that our method applies to bipartite systems in which different relationships might have different qualitative nature, generating statistically validated networks in which such difference is preserved. PMID:21483858

  9. Networking Hospital ePrescribing: A Systemic View of Digitalization of Medicines' Use in England.

    PubMed

    Lichtner, Valentina; Hibberd, Ralph; Cornford, Tony

    2016-01-01

    Medicine management is at the core of hospital care and digitalization of prescribing and administration of medicines is often the focus of attention of health IT programs. This may be conveyed to the public in terms of the elimination of paper-based drug charts and increased readability of doctors' prescriptions. Based on analysis of documents about hospital medicines supply and use (including systems' implementation) in the UK, in this conceptual paper electronic prescribing and administration are repositioned as only one aspect of an important wider transformation in medicine management in hospital settings, involving, for example, procurement, dispensing, auditing, waste management, research and safety vigilance. Approaching digitalization from a systemic perspective has the potential to uncover the wider implications of this transformation for patients, the organization and the wider health care system. PMID:27332165

  10. Infrared systems - Design and testing; Proceedings of the Meeting, London, England, June 9, 10, 1988

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, P.R.; Seeley, J.

    1988-01-01

    Topics discussed include design and devices, thermography and imaging, quality assurance aspects, and infrared modeling. Particular papers are presented on improvements in the design and manufacture of IR optical systems, IR linescanners for tactical reconnaissance, the optical testing of IR materials and components, the IR modeling for air targets.

  11. Geospatial assessments of cropping systems and farmland assemblages in New England

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Detailed assessments of the current state of crop production systems are essential to modeling potential productivity and evaluating core issues of sustainability for local to regional food supply studies. The main objective of this regionally-based geospatial investigation was to evaluate the most ...

  12. The Environmental Belief Systems of Organic and Conventional Farmers: Evidence from Central-Southern England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kings, David; Ilbery, Brian

    2010-01-01

    Little comparative work has been conducted on the environmental belief systems and behaviours of conventional and organic farmers, especially in relation to farming culture, the environment and lowland farmland avifauna. Adopting a modified behavioural approach, this paper analyses the ways in which the environmental attitudes and understandings…

  13. Simple molecules as complex systems.

    PubMed

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Arendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H2(16)O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an "ultra-small-world" property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  14. Simple molecules as complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Furtenbacher, Tibor; Árendás, Péter; Mellau, Georg; Császár, Attila G.

    2014-01-01

    For individual molecules quantum mechanics (QM) offers a simple, natural and elegant way to build large-scale complex networks: quantized energy levels are the nodes, allowed transitions among the levels are the links, and transition intensities supply the weights. QM networks are intrinsic properties of molecules and they are characterized experimentally via spectroscopy; thus, realizations of QM networks are called spectroscopic networks (SN). As demonstrated for the rovibrational states of H216O, the molecule governing the greenhouse effect on earth through hundreds of millions of its spectroscopic transitions (links), both the measured and first-principles computed one-photon absorption SNs containing experimentally accessible transitions appear to have heavy-tailed degree distributions. The proposed novel view of high-resolution spectroscopy and the observed degree distributions have important implications: appearance of a core of highly interconnected hubs among the nodes, a generally disassortative connection preference, considerable robustness and error tolerance, and an “ultra-small-world” property. The network-theoretical view of spectroscopy offers a data reduction facility via a minimum-weight spanning tree approach, which can assist high-resolution spectroscopists to improve the efficiency of the assignment of their measured spectra. PMID:24722221

  15. Active impedance matching of complex structural systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Macmartin, Douglas G.; Miller, David W.; Hall, Steven R.

    1991-01-01

    Viewgraphs on active impedance matching of complex structural systems are presented. Topics covered include: traveling wave model; dereverberated mobility model; computation of dereverberated mobility; control problem: optimal impedance matching; H2 optimal solution; statistical energy analysis (SEA) solution; experimental transfer functions; interferometer actuator and sensor locations; active strut configurations; power dual variables; dereverberation of complex structure; dereverberated transfer function; compensators; and relative power flow.

  16. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  17. Using real-time syndromic surveillance systems to help explore the acute impact of the air pollution incident of March/April 2014 in England.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gillian E; Bawa, Zharain; Macklin, Yolande; Morbey, Roger; Dobney, Alec; Vardoulakis, Sotiris; Elliot, Alex J

    2015-01-01

    During March and early April 2014 there was widespread poor air quality across the United Kingdom. Public Health England used existing syndromic surveillance systems to monitor community health during the period. Short lived statistically significant rises in a variety of respiratory conditions, including asthma and wheeze, were detected. This incident has demonstrated the value of real-time syndromic surveillance systems, during an air pollution episode, for helping to explore the impact of poor air quality on community health in real-time. PMID:25460672

  18. Prediction and characterization of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Mainieri, R.; Baer, M.; Brand, H.

    1996-10-01

    Complex systems are difficult to characterize and to simulate. By considering a series of explicit systems, through experiments and analysis, this project has shown that dynamical systems can be used to model complex systems. A complex dynamical system requires an exponential amount of computer work to simulate accurately. Direct methods are not practical and it is only by an hierarchical approach that one can gain control over the exponential behavior. This allows the development of efficient methods to study fluid flow and to simulate biological systems. There are two steps in the hierarchical approach. First, one must characterize the complex system as a collection of large domains or objects that have their own forms of interactions. This is done by considering coherent structures, such as solitons, spirals, and propagating fronts and determining their interactions. Second, one must be able to predict the properties of the resulting low-dimensional dynamical system.This is accomplished by an understanding of the topology of the orbits of the dynamical system. The coherent structure description was carried out in fluid and reaction diffusion systems. It was shown that very simple models from statistical mechanics could characterize a rotating Rayleigh-Benard system and that patters in reaction-diffusion systems are well described by soliton-like solutions. The studies of dynamical systems showed that simple characterizations of the phase space can be used to determine long time bounds. Also, that periodic orbit theory can be used to demonstrate that Monte Carlo simulations will converge to incorrect results.

  19. Quantum mechanics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoehn, Ross Douglas

    This document should be considered in its separation; there are three distinct topics contained within and three distinct chapters within the body of works. In a similar fashion, this abstract should be considered in three parts. Firstly, we explored the existence of multiply-charged atomic ions by having developed a new set of dimensional scaling equations as well as a series of relativistic augmentations to the standard dimensional scaling procedure and to the self-consistent field calculations. Secondly, we propose a novel method of predicting drug efficacy in hopes to facilitate the discovery of new small molecule therapeutics by modeling the agonist-protein system as being similar to the process of Inelastic Electron Tunneling Spectroscopy. Finally, we facilitate the instruction in basic quantum mechanical topics through the use of quantum games; this method of approach allows for the generation of exercises with the intent of conveying the fundamental concepts within a first year quantum mechanics classroom. Furthermore, no to be mentioned within the body of the text, yet presented in appendix form, certain works modeling the proliferation of cells types within the confines of man-made lattices for the purpose of facilitating artificial vascular transplants. In Chapter 2, we present a theoretical framework which describes multiply-charged atomic ions, their stability within super-intense laser fields, also lay corrections to the systems due to relativistic effects. Dimensional scaling calculations with relativistic corrections for systems: H, H-, H 2-, He, He-, He2-, He3- within super-intense laser fields were completed. Also completed were three-dimensional self consistent field calculations to verify the dimensionally scaled quantities. With the aforementioned methods the system's ability to stably bind 'additional' electrons through the development of multiple isolated regions of high potential energy leading to nodes of high electron density is shown

  20. (R)evolution of complex regulatory systems.

    PubMed

    Linding, Rune

    2010-01-01

    Signaling systems are exciting to study precisely because they are some of the most complex and dynamical systems that we know. The cell needs operational freedom and, thus, many motif-domain interactions might not be "hard-wired" through evolution, but instead may be like the Linux operating system, where symbolic links can point to files without duplication. PMID:20571125

  1. London, England

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2003-01-01

    For almost 2,000 years, the River Thames has served as the life force of London, capital of the United Kingdom and one of the world's most famous cities. In AD 43 the Romans established the trading settlement of Londinium at a favorable crossing point on the river. The Romans remained until the 5th century, when the city came under Saxon control. The early 17th century saw enormous growth, but the deadly plague of 1664 and 1665 ravaged the population, and in the following year the Great Fire, which burned for four days, destroyed most of the city. A public transportation system and other city services in the early 19th century eased many of the increasing urban problems of the burgeoning capital of the wealthy British Empire. After coping with the devastating effects of bombing during World War II and the gradual dismantling of the empire, London today thrives as a vital modern metropolis. London is one of 100 cities being studied using ASTER data to map and monitor urban use patterns and growth.

    This image was acquired on October 12, 2001 by the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) on NASA's Terra satellite. With its 14 spectral bands from the visible to the thermal infrared wavelength region, and its high spatial resolution of 15 to 90 meters (about 50 to 300 feet), ASTER images Earth to map and monitor the changing surface of our planet.

    ASTER is one of five Earth-observing instruments launched December 18, 1999, on NASA's Terra satellite. The instrument was built by Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry. A joint U.S./Japan science team is responsible for validation and calibration of the instrument and the data products.

    The broad spectral coverage and high spectral resolution of ASTER will provide scientists in numerous disciplines with critical information for surface mapping, and monitoring of dynamic conditions and temporal change. Example applications are: monitoring glacial advances and retreats

  2. What Is a Complex Innovation System?

    PubMed Central

    Katz, J. Sylvan

    2016-01-01

    Innovation systems are sometimes referred to as complex systems, something that is intuitively understood but poorly defined. A complex system dynamically evolves in non-linear ways giving it unique properties that distinguish it from other systems. In particular, a common signature of complex systems is scale-invariant emergent properties. A scale-invariant property can be identified because it is solely described by a power law function, f(x) = kxα, where the exponent, α, is a measure of scale-invariance. The focus of this paper is to describe and illustrate that innovation systems have properties of a complex adaptive system. In particular scale-invariant emergent properties indicative of their complex nature that can be quantified and used to inform public policy. The global research system is an example of an innovation system. Peer-reviewed publications containing knowledge are a characteristic output. Citations or references to these articles are an indirect measure of the impact the knowledge has on the research community. Peer-reviewed papers indexed in Scopus and in the Web of Science were used as data sources to produce measures of sizes and impact. These measures are used to illustrate how scale-invariant properties can be identified and quantified. It is demonstrated that the distribution of impact has a reasonable likelihood of being scale-invariant with scaling exponents that tended toward a value of less than 3.0 with the passage of time and decreasing group sizes. Scale-invariant correlations are shown between the evolution of impact and size with time and between field impact and sizes at points in time. The recursive or self-similar nature of scale-invariance suggests that any smaller innovation system within the global research system is likely to be complex with scale-invariant properties too. PMID:27258040

  3. In Defense of Simulating Complex and Tragic Historical Episodes: A Measured Response to the Outcry over a New England Slavery Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wright-Maley, Cory

    2014-01-01

    A slavery simulation that took place as part of a field trip for students of a Hartford junior high academy led a father to file a human rights suit against the school district, and for one official to comment that simulations of complex and tragic human phenomena have "no place in an educational system." In light of these conclusions,…

  4. Large-scale systems: Complexity, stability, reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Siljak, D. D.

    1975-01-01

    After showing that a complex dynamic system with a competitive structure has highly reliable stability, a class of noncompetitive dynamic systems for which competitive models can be constructed is defined. It is shown that such a construction is possible in the context of the hierarchic stability analysis. The scheme is based on the comparison principle and vector Liapunov functions.

  5. System Complexity Reduction via Feature Selection

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Deng, Houtao

    2011-01-01

    This dissertation transforms a set of system complexity reduction problems to feature selection problems. Three systems are considered: classification based on association rules, network structure learning, and time series classification. Furthermore, two variable importance measures are proposed to reduce the feature selection bias in tree…

  6. Design tools for complex dynamic security systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Rigdon, James Brian; Rohrer, Brandon Robinson; Laguna, Glenn A.; Robinett, Rush D. III; Groom, Kenneth Neal; Wilson, David Gerald; Bickerstaff, Robert J.; Harrington, John J.

    2007-01-01

    The development of tools for complex dynamic security systems is not a straight forward engineering task but, rather, a scientific task where discovery of new scientific principles and math is necessary. For years, scientists have observed complex behavior but have had difficulty understanding it. Prominent examples include: insect colony organization, the stock market, molecular interactions, fractals, and emergent behavior. Engineering such systems will be an even greater challenge. This report explores four tools for engineered complex dynamic security systems: Partially Observable Markov Decision Process, Percolation Theory, Graph Theory, and Exergy/Entropy Theory. Additionally, enabling hardware technology for next generation security systems are described: a 100 node wireless sensor network, unmanned ground vehicle and unmanned aerial vehicle.

  7. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-01

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed.

  8. Vacuum Ultraviolet Photoionization of Complex Chemical Systems.

    PubMed

    Kostko, Oleg; Bandyopadhyay, Biswajit; Ahmed, Musahid

    2016-05-27

    Tunable vacuum ultraviolet (VUV) radiation coupled to mass spectrometry is applied to the study of complex chemical systems. The identification of novel reactive intermediates and radicals is revealed in flame, pulsed photolysis, and pyrolysis reactors, leading to the elucidation of spectroscopy, reaction mechanisms, and kinetics. Mass-resolved threshold photoelectron photoion coincidence measurements provide unprecedented access to vibrationally resolved spectra of free radicals present in high-temperature reactors. Photoionization measurements in water clusters, nucleic acid base dimers, and their complexes with water provide signatures of proton transfer in hydrogen-bonded and π-stacked systems. Experimental and theoretical methods to track ion-molecule reactions and fragmentation pathways in intermolecular and intramolecular hydrogen-bonded systems in sugars and alcohols are described. Photoionization of laser-ablated molecules, clusters, and their reaction products inform thermodynamics and spectroscopy that are relevant to astrochemistry and catalysis. New directions in coupling VUV radiation to interrogate complex chemical systems are discussed. PMID:26980311

  9. Particlelike wave packets in complex scattering systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gérardin, Benoît; Laurent, Jérôme; Ambichl, Philipp; Prada, Claire; Rotter, Stefan; Aubry, Alexandre

    2016-07-01

    A wave packet undergoes a strong spatial and temporal dispersion while propagating through a complex medium. This wave scattering is often seen as a nightmare in wave physics whether it be for focusing, imaging, or communication purposes. Controlling wave propagation through complex systems is thus of fundamental interest in many areas, ranging from optics or acoustics to medical imaging or telecommunications. Here, we study the propagation of elastic waves in a cavity and a disordered waveguide by means of laser interferometry. From the direct experimental access to the time-delay matrix of these systems, we demonstrate the existence of particlelike wave packets that remain focused in time and space throughout their complex trajectory. Due to their limited dispersion, their selective excitation will be crucially relevant for all applications involving selective wave focusing and efficient information transfer through complex media.

  10. Complexity and Stability in Biological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demongeot, Jacques; Demetrius, Lloyd A.

    2015-06-01

    The hypothesis that a positive correlation exists between the complexity of a biological system, as described by its connectance, and its stability, as measured by its ability to recover from disturbance, derives from the investigations of the physiologists, Bernard and Cannon, and the ecologist Elton. Studies based on the ergodic theory of dynamical systems and the theory of large deviations have furnished an analytic support for this hypothesis. Complexity in this context is described by the mathematical object evolutionary entropy, stability is characterized by the rate at which the system returns to its stable conditions (steady state or periodic attractor) after a random perturbation of its robustness. This article reviews the analytical basis of the entropy — robustness theorem — and invokes studies of genetic regulatory networks to provide empirical support for the correlation between complexity and stability. Earlier investigations based on numerical studies of random matrix models and the notion of local stability have led to the claim that complex ecosystems tend to be more dynamically fragile. This article elucidates the basis for this claim which is largely inconsistent with the empirical observations of Bernard, Cannon and Elton. Our analysis thus resolves a long standing controversy regarding the relation between complex biological systems and their capacity to recover from perturbations. The entropy-robustness principle is a mathematical proposition with implications for understanding the basis for the large variations in stability observed in biological systems having evolved under different environmental conditions.

  11. Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems (CASOS) engineering environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Detry, Richard Joseph; Linebarger, John Michael; Finley, Patrick D.; Maffitt, S. Louise; Glass, Robert John, Jr.; Beyeler, Walter Eugene; Ames, Arlo Leroy

    2012-02-01

    Complex Adaptive Systems of Systems, or CASoS, are vastly complex physical-socio-technical systems which we must understand to design a secure future for the nation. The Phoenix initiative implements CASoS Engineering principles combining the bottom up Complex Systems and Complex Adaptive Systems view with the top down Systems Engineering and System-of-Systems view. CASoS Engineering theory and practice must be conducted together to develop a discipline that is grounded in reality, extends our understanding of how CASoS behave and allows us to better control the outcomes. The pull of applications (real world problems) is critical to this effort, as is the articulation of a CASoS Engineering Framework that grounds an engineering approach in the theory of complex adaptive systems of systems. Successful application of the CASoS Engineering Framework requires modeling, simulation and analysis (MS and A) capabilities and the cultivation of a CASoS Engineering Community of Practice through knowledge sharing and facilitation. The CASoS Engineering Environment, itself a complex adaptive system of systems, constitutes the two platforms that provide these capabilities.

  12. Complex system modelling for veterinary epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Lanzas, Cristina; Chen, Shi

    2015-02-01

    The use of mathematical models has a long tradition in infectious disease epidemiology. The nonlinear dynamics and complexity of pathogen transmission pose challenges in understanding its key determinants, in identifying critical points, and designing effective mitigation strategies. Mathematical modelling provides tools to explicitly represent the variability, interconnectedness, and complexity of systems, and has contributed to numerous insights and theoretical advances in disease transmission, as well as to changes in public policy, health practice, and management. In recent years, our modelling toolbox has considerably expanded due to the advancements in computing power and the need to model novel data generated by technologies such as proximity loggers and global positioning systems. In this review, we discuss the principles, advantages, and challenges associated with the most recent modelling approaches used in systems science, the interdisciplinary study of complex systems, including agent-based, network and compartmental modelling. Agent-based modelling is a powerful simulation technique that considers the individual behaviours of system components by defining a set of rules that govern how individuals ("agents") within given populations interact with one another and the environment. Agent-based models have become a recent popular choice in epidemiology to model hierarchical systems and address complex spatio-temporal dynamics because of their ability to integrate multiple scales and datasets. PMID:25449734

  13. Toolsets Maintain Health of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2010-01-01

    First featured in Spinoff 2001, Qualtech Systems Inc. (QSI), of Wethersfield, Connecticut, adapted its Testability, Engineering, and Maintenance System (TEAMS) toolset under Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) contracts from Ames Research Center to strengthen NASA's systems health management approach for its large, complex, and interconnected systems. Today, six NASA field centers utilize the TEAMS toolset, including TEAMS-Designer, TEAMS-RT, TEAMATE, and TEAMS-RDS. TEAMS is also being used on industrial systems that generate power, carry data, refine chemicals, perform medical functions, and produce semiconductor wafers. QSI finds TEAMS can lower costs by decreasing problems requiring service by 30 to 50 percent.

  14. The Physics of Complex Systems in Cuba

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sotolongo-Costa, Oscar

    In relating the circumstances that led to the birth and development of the physics of complex systems in Cuba, it is difficult to avoid being anecdotal—particularly because of the difficult times during which this research started. Cuban eclecticism, whose spectrum extends from religious syncretism to world-class medicine, seems quite coherent with the field of complex systems, characterized by the synergy of diverse fields. Such a combination, however, in the beginning seemed to be quite removed from the physicists' standard research dogmas.

  15. Mapping dynamical systems onto complex networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Borges, E. P.; Cajueiro, D. O.; Andrade, R. F. S.

    2007-08-01

    The objective of this study is to design a procedure to characterize chaotic dynamical systems, in which they are mapped onto a complex network. The nodes represent the regions of space visited by the system, while the edges represent the transitions between these regions. Parameters developed to quantify the properties of complex networks, including those related to higher order neighbourhoods, are used in the analysis. The methodology is tested on the logistic map, focusing on the onset of chaos and chaotic regimes. The corresponding networks were found to have distinct features that are associated with the particular type of dynamics that generated them.

  16. Mapping complex traits as a dynamic system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Lidan; Wu, Rongling

    2015-06-01

    Despite increasing emphasis on the genetic study of quantitative traits, we are still far from being able to chart a clear picture of their genetic architecture, given an inherent complexity involved in trait formation. A competing theory for studying such complex traits has emerged by viewing their phenotypic formation as a "system" in which a high-dimensional group of interconnected components act and interact across different levels of biological organization from molecules through cells to whole organisms. This system is initiated by a machinery of DNA sequences that regulate a cascade of biochemical pathways to synthesize endophenotypes and further assemble these endophenotypes toward the end-point phenotype in virtue of various developmental changes. This review focuses on a conceptual framework for genetic mapping of complex traits by which to delineate the underlying components, interactions and mechanisms that govern the system according to biological principles and understand how these components function synergistically under the control of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) to comprise a unified whole. This framework is built by a system of differential equations that quantifies how alterations of different components lead to the global change of trait development and function, and provides a quantitative and testable platform for assessing the multiscale interplay between QTLs and development. The method will enable geneticists to shed light on the genetic complexity of any biological system and predict, alter or engineer its physiological and pathological states.

  17. New England: Hudson River

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2014-05-15

    article title:  New York and Southern New England     View Larger Image ... Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) nadir-camera image includes New York City, site of the Yankees and the National League's Mets. The Yankees ...

  18. Multiphase reliability analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Azam, Mohammad S.; Tu, Fang; Pattipati, Krishna R.

    2003-08-01

    Modern industrial systems assume different configurations to accomplish multiple objectives during different phases of operation, and the component parameters may also vary from one phase to the next. Consequently, reliability evaluation of complex multi-phased systems is a vital and challenging issue. Maximization of mission reliability of a multi-phase system via optimal asset selection is another key demand; incorporation of optimization issues adds to the complexities of reliability evaluation processes. Introduction of components having self-diagnostics and self-recovery capabilities, along with increased complexity and phase-dependent configuration variations in network architectures, requires new approaches for reliability evaluation. This paper considers the problem of evaluating the reliability of a complex multi-phased system with self-recovery/fault-protection options. The reliability analysis is based on a colored digraph (i.e., multi-functional) model that subsumes fault trees and digraphs as special cases. These models enable system designers to decide on system architecture modifications and to determine the optimum levels of redundancy. A sum of disjoint products (SDP) approach is employed to compute system reliability. We also formulated the problem of optimal asset selection in a multi-phase system as one of maximizing the probability of mission success under random load profiles on components. Different methods (e.g., ordinal optimization, robust design, and nonparametric statistical testing) are explored to solve the problem. The resulting analytical expressions and the software tool are demonstrated on a generic programmable software-controlled switchgear, a data bus controller system and a multi-phase mission involving helicopters.

  19. Energy Consumption Monitoring System for Large Complexes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jorge, André; Guerreiro, João; Pereira, Pedro; Martins, João; Gomes, Luís

    This paper describes the development of an open source system for monitoring and data acquisition of several energy analyzers. The developed system is based on a computer with Internet/Intranet connection by means of RS485 using Modbus RTU as communication protocol. The monitoring/metering system was developed for large building complexes and was validated in the Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia University campus. The system considers two distinct applications. The first one allows the user to verify, in real time, the energy consumption of any department in the complex, produce load diagrams, tables and print, email or save all available data. The second application keeps records of active/reactive energy consumption in order to verify the existence of some anomalous situation, and also monthly charge energy consumption to each corresponding department.

  20. Constructing minimal models for complex system dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barzel, Baruch; Liu, Yang-Yu; Barabási, Albert-László

    2015-05-01

    One of the strengths of statistical physics is the ability to reduce macroscopic observations into microscopic models, offering a mechanistic description of a system's dynamics. This paradigm, rooted in Boltzmann's gas theory, has found applications from magnetic phenomena to subcellular processes and epidemic spreading. Yet, each of these advances were the result of decades of meticulous model building and validation, which are impossible to replicate in most complex biological, social or technological systems that lack accurate microscopic models. Here we develop a method to infer the microscopic dynamics of a complex system from observations of its response to external perturbations, allowing us to construct the most general class of nonlinear pairwise dynamics that are guaranteed to recover the observed behaviour. The result, which we test against both numerical and empirical data, is an effective dynamic model that can predict the system's behaviour and provide crucial insights into its inner workings.

  1. Managing interoperability and complexity in health systems.

    PubMed

    Bouamrane, M-M; Tao, C; Sarkar, I N

    2015-01-01

    In recent years, we have witnessed substantial progress in the use of clinical informatics systems to support clinicians during episodes of care, manage specialised domain knowledge, perform complex clinical data analysis and improve the management of health organisations' resources. However, the vision of fully integrated health information eco-systems, which provide relevant information and useful knowledge at the point-of-care, remains elusive. This journal Focus Theme reviews some of the enduring challenges of interoperability and complexity in clinical informatics systems. Furthermore, a range of approaches are proposed in order to address, harness and resolve some of the many remaining issues towards a greater integration of health information systems and extraction of useful or new knowledge from heterogeneous electronic data repositories. PMID:25579862

  2. Resource Letter CS-1: Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, M. E. J.

    2011-08-01

    A complex system is a system composed of many interacting parts, often called agents, which displays collective behavior that does not follow trivially from the behaviors of the individual parts. Examples include condensed-matter systems, ecosystems, stock markets and economies, biological evolution, and indeed the whole of human society. Substantial progress has been made in the quantitative understanding of complex systems, particularly since the 1980s, using a combination of basic theory, much of it derived from physics, and computer simulation. The subject is a broad one, drawing on techniques and ideas from a wide range of areas. Here, I give a selection of introductory resources, ranging from classic papers to recent books and reviews.

  3. Language Teacher Cognitions: Complex Dynamic Systems?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Feryok, Anne

    2010-01-01

    Language teacher cognition research is a growing field. In recent years several features of language teacher cognitions have been noted: they can be complex, ranging over a number of different subjects; they can be dynamic, changing over time and under different influences; and they can be systems, forming unified and cohesive personal or…

  4. Promoting Transfer by Grounding Complex Systems Principles

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstone, Robert L.; Wilensky, Uri

    2008-01-01

    Understanding scientific phenomena in terms of complex systems principles is both scientifically and pedagogically important. Situations from different disciplines of science are often governed by the same principle, and so promoting knowledge transfer across disciplines makes valuable cross-fertilization and scientific unification possible.…

  5. Engineering Education as a Complex System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating…

  6. Designing To Learn about Complex Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hmelo, Cindy E.; Holton, Douglas L.; Kolodner, Janet L.

    2000-01-01

    Indicates the presence of complex structural, behavioral, and functional relations to understanding. Reports on a design experiment in which 6th grade children learned about the human respiratory system by designing artificial lungs and building partial working models. Makes suggestions for successful learning from design activities. (Contains 44…

  7. Gaia as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed Central

    Lenton, Timothy M; van Oijen, Marcel

    2002-01-01

    We define the Gaia system of life and its environment on Earth, review the status of the Gaia theory, introduce potentially relevant concepts from complexity theory, then try to apply them to Gaia. We consider whether Gaia is a complex adaptive system (CAS) in terms of its behaviour and suggest that the system is self-organizing but does not reside in a critical state. Gaia has supported abundant life for most of the last 3.8 Gyr. Large perturbations have occasionally suppressed life but the system has always recovered without losing the capacity for large-scale free energy capture and recycling of essential elements. To illustrate how complexity theory can help us understand the emergence of planetary-scale order, we present a simple cellular automata (CA) model of the imaginary planet Daisyworld. This exhibits emergent self-regulation as a consequence of feedback coupling between life and its environment. Local spatial interaction, which was absent from the original model, can destabilize the system by generating bifurcation regimes. Variation and natural selection tend to remove this instability. With mutation in the model system, it exhibits self-organizing adaptive behaviour in its response to forcing. We close by suggesting how artificial life ('Alife') techniques may enable more comprehensive feasibility tests of Gaia. PMID:12079529

  8. Dependency visualization for complex system understanding

    SciTech Connect

    Smart, J.A.C.

    1994-09-01

    With the volume of software in production use dramatically increasing, the importance of software maintenance has become strikingly apparent. Techniques now sought and developed for reverse engineering and design extraction and recovery. At present, numerous commercial products and research tools exist which are capable of visualizing a variety of programming languages and software constructs. The list of new tools and services continues to grow rapidly. Although the scope of the existing commercial and academic product set is quite broad, these tools still share a common underlying problem. The ability of each tool to visually organize object representations is increasingly impaired as the number of components and component dependencies within systems increases. Regardless of how objects are defined, complex ``spaghetti`` networks result in nearly all large system cases. While this problem is immediately apparent in modem systems analysis involving large software implementations, it is not new. As will be discussed in Chapter 2, related problems involving the theory of graphs were identified long ago. This important theoretical foundation provides a useful vehicle for representing and analyzing complex system structures. While the utility of directed graph based concepts in software tool design has been demonstrated in literature, these tools still lack the capabilities necessary for large system comprehension. This foundation must therefore be expanded with new orgnizational and visualization constructs necessary to meet this challenge. This dissertation addresses this need by constructing a conceptual model and a set of methods for interactively exploring, organizing, and understanding the structure of complex software systems.

  9. Membrane Tethering Complexes in the Endosomal System

    PubMed Central

    Spang, Anne

    2016-01-01

    Vesicles that are generated by endocytic events at the plasma membrane are destined to early endosomes. A prerequisite for proper fusion is the tethering of two membrane entities. Tethering of vesicles to early endosomes is mediated by the class C core vacuole/endosome tethering (CORVET) complex, while fusion of late endosomes with lysosomes depends on the homotypic fusion and vacuole protein sorting (HOPS) complex. Recycling through the trans-Golgi network (TGN) and to the plasma membrane is facilitated by the Golgi associated retrograde protein (GARP) and endosome-associated recycling protein (EARP) complexes, respectively. However, there are other tethering functions in the endosomal system as there are multiple pathways through which proteins can be delivered from endosomes to either the TGN or the plasma membrane. Furthermore, proteins that may be part of novel tethering complexes have been recently identified. Thus, it is likely that more tethering factors exist. In this review, I will provide an overview of different tethering complexes of the endosomal system and discuss how they may provide specificity in membrane traffic. PMID:27243003

  10. Causes of catastrophic failure in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thomas, David A.

    2010-08-01

    Root causes of mission critical failures and major cost and schedule overruns in complex systems and programs are studied through the post-mortem analyses compiled for several examples, including the Hubble Space Telescope, the Challenger and Columbia Shuttle accidents, and the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant accident. The roles of organizational complexity, cognitive biases in decision making, the display of quantitative data, and cost and schedule pressure are all considered. Recommendations for mitigating the risk of similar failures in future programs are also provided.

  11. A Multifaceted Mathematical Approach for Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Alexander, F.; Anitescu, M.; Bell, J.; Brown, D.; Ferris, M.; Luskin, M.; Mehrotra, S.; Moser, B.; Pinar, A.; Tartakovsky, A.; Willcox, K.; Wright, S.; Zavala, V.

    2012-03-07

    Applied mathematics has an important role to play in developing the tools needed for the analysis, simulation, and optimization of complex problems. These efforts require the development of the mathematical foundations for scientific discovery, engineering design, and risk analysis based on a sound integrated approach for the understanding of complex systems. However, maximizing the impact of applied mathematics on these challenges requires a novel perspective on approaching the mathematical enterprise. Previous reports that have surveyed the DOE's research needs in applied mathematics have played a key role in defining research directions with the community. Although these reports have had significant impact, accurately assessing current research needs requires an evaluation of today's challenges against the backdrop of recent advances in applied mathematics and computing. To address these needs, the DOE Applied Mathematics Program sponsored a Workshop for Mathematics for the Analysis, Simulation and Optimization of Complex Systems on September 13-14, 2011. The workshop had approximately 50 participants from both the national labs and academia. The goal of the workshop was to identify new research areas in applied mathematics that will complement and enhance the existing DOE ASCR Applied Mathematics Program efforts that are needed to address problems associated with complex systems. This report describes recommendations from the workshop and subsequent analysis of the workshop findings by the organizing committee.

  12. Structured analysis and modeling of complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Strome, David R.; Dalrymple, Mathieu A.

    1992-01-01

    The Aircrew Evaluation Sustained Operations Performance (AESOP) facility at Brooks AFB, Texas, combines the realism of an operational environment with the control of a research laboratory. In recent studies we collected extensive data from the Airborne Warning and Control Systems (AWACS) Weapons Directors subjected to high and low workload Defensive Counter Air Scenarios. A critical and complex task in this environment involves committing a friendly fighter against a hostile fighter. Structured Analysis and Design techniques and computer modeling systems were applied to this task as tools for analyzing subject performance and workload. This technology is being transferred to the Man-Systems Division of NASA Johnson Space Center for application to complex mission related tasks, such as manipulating the Shuttle grappler arm.

  13. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the 'thinnest site' of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most 'dangerous' direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  14. Systems genetics approaches to understand complex traits

    PubMed Central

    Civelek, Mete; Lusis, Aldons J.

    2014-01-01

    Systems genetics is an approach to understand the flow of biological information that underlies complex traits. It uses a range of experimental and statistical methods to quantitate and integrate intermediate phenotypes, such as transcript, protein or metabolite levels, in populations that vary for traits of interest. Systems genetics studies have provided the first global view of the molecular architecture of complex traits and are useful for the identification of genes, pathways and networks that underlie common human diseases. Given the urgent need to understand how the thousands of loci that have been identified in genome-wide association studies contribute to disease susceptibility, systems genetics is likely to become an increasingly important approach to understanding both biology and disease. PMID:24296534

  15. Stability threshold approach for complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klinshov, Vladimir V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.; Kurths, Jürgen

    2016-01-01

    A new measure to characterize the stability of complex dynamical systems against large perturbations is suggested, the stability threshold (ST). It quantifies the magnitude of the weakest perturbation capable of disrupting the system and switch it to an undesired dynamical regime. In the phase space, the ST corresponds to the ‘thinnest site’ of the attraction basin and therefore indicates the most ‘dangerous’ direction of perturbations. We introduce a computational algorithm for quantification of the ST and demonstrate that the suggested approach is effective and provides important insights. The generality of the obtained results defines their vast potential for application in such fields as engineering, neuroscience, power grids, Earth science and many others where the robustness of complex systems is studied.

  16. Analysis of Complex Valve and Feed Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy; Cavallo, Peter; Dash, Sanford

    2007-01-01

    A numerical framework for analysis of complex valve systems supports testing of propulsive systems by simulating key valve and control system components in the test loop. In particular, it is designed to enhance the analysis capability in terms of identifying system transients and quantifying the valve response to these transients. This system has analysis capability for simulating valve motion in complex systems operating in diverse flow regimes ranging from compressible gases to cryogenic liquids. A key feature is the hybrid, unstructured framework with sub-models for grid movement and phase change including cryogenic cavitations. The multi-element unstructured framework offers improved predictions of valve performance characteristics under steady conditions for structurally complex valves such as pressure regulator valve. Unsteady simulations of valve motion using this computational approach have been carried out for various valves in operation at Stennis Space Center such as the split-body valve and the 10-in. (approx.25.4-cm) LOX (liquid oxygen) valve and the 4-in. (approx.10 cm) Y-pattern valve (liquid nitrogen). Such simulations make use of variable grid topologies, thereby permitting solution accuracy and resolving important flow physics in the seat region of the moving valve. An advantage to this software includes possible reduction in testing costs incurred due to disruptions relating to unexpected flow transients or functioning of valve/flow control systems. Prediction of the flow anomalies leading to system vibrations, flow resonance, and valve stall can help in valve scheduling and significantly reduce the need for activation tests. This framework has been evaluated for its ability to predict performance metrics like flow coefficient for cavitating venturis and valve coefficient curves, and could be a valuable tool in predicting and understanding anomalous behavior of system components at rocket propulsion testing and design sites.

  17. Engineering education as a complex system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gattie, David K.; Kellam, Nadia N.; Schramski, John R.; Walther, Joachim

    2011-12-01

    This paper presents a theoretical basis for cultivating engineering education as a complex system that will prepare students to think critically and make decisions with regard to poorly understood, ill-structured issues. Integral to this theoretical basis is a solution space construct developed and presented as a benchmark for evaluating problem-solving orientations that emerge within students' thinking as they progress through an engineering curriculum. It is proposed that the traditional engineering education model, while analytically rigorous, is characterised by properties that, although necessary, are insufficient for preparing students to address complex issues of the twenty-first century. A Synthesis and Design Studio model for engineering education is proposed, which maintains the necessary rigor of analysis within a uniquely complex yet sufficiently structured learning environment.

  18. Automated Design of Complex Dynamic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Hermans, Michiel; Schrauwen, Benjamin; Bienstman, Peter; Dambre, Joni

    2014-01-01

    Several fields of study are concerned with uniting the concept of computation with that of the design of physical systems. For example, a recent trend in robotics is to design robots in such a way that they require a minimal control effort. Another example is found in the domain of photonics, where recent efforts try to benefit directly from the complex nonlinear dynamics to achieve more efficient signal processing. The underlying goal of these and similar research efforts is to internalize a large part of the necessary computations within the physical system itself by exploiting its inherent non-linear dynamics. This, however, often requires the optimization of large numbers of system parameters, related to both the system's structure as well as its material properties. In addition, many of these parameters are subject to fabrication variability or to variations through time. In this paper we apply a machine learning algorithm to optimize physical dynamic systems. We show that such algorithms, which are normally applied on abstract computational entities, can be extended to the field of differential equations and used to optimize an associated set of parameters which determine their behavior. We show that machine learning training methodologies are highly useful in designing robust systems, and we provide a set of both simple and complex examples using models of physical dynamical systems. Interestingly, the derived optimization method is intimately related to direct collocation a method known in the field of optimal control. Our work suggests that the application domains of both machine learning and optimal control have a largely unexplored overlapping area which envelopes a novel design methodology of smart and highly complex physical systems. PMID:24497969

  19. Multifractal Resilience Metrics for Complex Systems?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schertzer, D. J.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    The term resilience has become extremely fashionable, especially for complex systems, whereas corresponding operational definitions have remained rather elusive (Carpenter et al. 2001). More precisely, the resilience assessment of man-made systems (from nuclear plants to cities) to geophysical extremes require mathematically defined resilience metrics based on some conceptual definition, e.g. the often cited definition of "ecological resilience" (Hollings 1973): "the capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and reorganize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity, and feedbacks". Surprisingly, whereas it was acknowledged by Folke et al. (2010) that "multiscale resilience is fundamental for understanding the interplay between persistence and change, adaptability and transformability", the relation between resilience and scaling has not been so much questioned, see however Peterson (2000). We argue that is rather indispensable to go well beyond the attractor approach (Pimm and Lawton 1977; Collings and Wollkind 1990;), as well as extensions (Martin et al., 2011) into the framework of the viability theory (Aubin 1991; Aubin et al. 2011). Indeed, both are rather limited to systems that are complex only in time. Scale symmetries are indeed indispensable to reduce the space-time complexity by defining scale independent observables, which are the singularities of the original, scale dependent fields. These singularities enable to define across-scale resilience, instead of resilience at a given scale.

  20. Controlling Complex Systems and Developing Dynamic Technology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Avizienis, Audrius Victor

    In complex systems, control and understanding become intertwined. Following Ilya Prigogine, we define complex systems as having control parameters which mediate transitions between distinct modes of dynamical behavior. From this perspective, determining the nature of control parameters and demonstrating the associated dynamical phase transitions are practically equivalent and fundamental to engaging with complexity. In the first part of this work, a control parameter is determined for a non-equilibrium electrochemical system by studying a transition in the morphology of structures produced by an electroless deposition reaction. Specifically, changing the size of copper posts used as the substrate for growing metallic silver structures by the reduction of Ag+ from solution under diffusion-limited reaction conditions causes a dynamical phase transition in the crystal growth process. For Cu posts with edge lengths on the order of one micron, local forces promoting anisotropic growth predominate, and the reaction produces interconnected networks of Ag nanowires. As the post size is increased above 10 microns, the local interfacial growth reaction dynamics couple with the macroscopic diffusion field, leading to spatially propagating instabilities in the electrochemical potential which induce periodic branching during crystal growth, producing dendritic deposits. This result is interesting both as an example of control and understanding in a complex system, and as a useful combination of top-down lithography with bottom-up electrochemical self-assembly. The second part of this work focuses on the technological development of devices fabricated using this non-equilibrium electrochemical process, towards a goal of integrating a complex network as a dynamic functional component in a neuromorphic computing device. Self-assembled networks of silver nanowires were reacted with sulfur to produce interfacial "atomic switches": silver-silver sulfide junctions, which exhibit

  1. Synchronization in node of complex networks consist of complex chaotic system

    SciTech Connect

    Wei, Qiang; Xie, Cheng-jun; Liu, Hong-jun; Li, Yan-hui

    2014-07-15

    A new synchronization method is investigated for node of complex networks consists of complex chaotic system. When complex networks realize synchronization, different component of complex state variable synchronize up to different scaling complex function by a designed complex feedback controller. This paper change synchronization scaling function from real field to complex field for synchronization in node of complex networks with complex chaotic system. Synchronization in constant delay and time-varying coupling delay complex networks are investigated, respectively. Numerical simulations are provided to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  2. Complex Failure Forewarning System - DHS Conference Proceedings

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain, aging bridges, is used to explain the Complex Structure Failure Forewarning System. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  3. Analysis of complex systems using neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E. . Dept. of Nuclear Engineering Oak Ridge National Lab., TN )

    1992-01-01

    The application of neural networks, alone or in conjunction with other advanced technologies (expert systems, fuzzy logic, and/or genetic algorithms), to some of the problems of complex engineering systems has the potential to enhance the safety, reliability, and operability of these systems. Typically, the measured variables from the systems are analog variables that must be sampled and normalized to expected peak values before they are introduced into neural networks. Often data must be processed to put it into a form more acceptable to the neural network (e.g., a fast Fourier transformation of the time-series data to produce a spectral plot of the data). Specific applications described include: (1) Diagnostics: State of the Plant (2) Hybrid System for Transient Identification, (3) Sensor Validation, (4) Plant-Wide Monitoring, (5) Monitoring of Performance and Efficiency, and (6) Analysis of Vibrations. Although specific examples described deal with nuclear power plants or their subsystems, the techniques described can be applied to a wide variety of complex engineering systems.

  4. Analysis of complex systems using neural networks

    SciTech Connect

    Uhrig, R.E. |

    1992-12-31

    The application of neural networks, alone or in conjunction with other advanced technologies (expert systems, fuzzy logic, and/or genetic algorithms), to some of the problems of complex engineering systems has the potential to enhance the safety, reliability, and operability of these systems. Typically, the measured variables from the systems are analog variables that must be sampled and normalized to expected peak values before they are introduced into neural networks. Often data must be processed to put it into a form more acceptable to the neural network (e.g., a fast Fourier transformation of the time-series data to produce a spectral plot of the data). Specific applications described include: (1) Diagnostics: State of the Plant (2) Hybrid System for Transient Identification, (3) Sensor Validation, (4) Plant-Wide Monitoring, (5) Monitoring of Performance and Efficiency, and (6) Analysis of Vibrations. Although specific examples described deal with nuclear power plants or their subsystems, the techniques described can be applied to a wide variety of complex engineering systems.

  5. Efficiently evaluate complex pressure relief systems

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.K.; Walker, A.G.

    1997-01-01

    This article will present the steps necessary to perform a comprehensive analysis of complex pressure relief systems. The goal is not to discuss detailed calculations for proper valve sizing and selection, but rather to analyze and verify existing system configurations. Sizing and selection have been covered in detail by the American Petroleum Institute (API) RP 520, API RP 521, various AIChE Design Institute for Emergency Relief Systems (DIERS) publications, and other sources. In their work with industry, the authors have noticed a tendency for some engineers to proceed with detailed calculations without first preparing an overall strategy and implementation plan to make sure that the calculations yield the desired results. They have seen detailed pressure relief system analyses costing hundreds of thousands of dollars which, for any number of reasons, are incorrect. The old adage GIGO (garbage in/garbage out) certainly applies to pressure relief system analysis. They will address the thought processes and actions necessary to correctly and efficiently evaluate complex pressure relief systems.

  6. Development of risk-based trading farm scoring system to assist with the control of bovine tuberculosis in cattle in England and Wales.

    PubMed

    Adkin, A; Brouwer, A; Simons, R R L; Smith, R P; Arnold, M E; Broughan, J; Kosmider, R; Downs, S H

    2016-01-01

    Identifying and ranking cattle herds with a higher risk of being or becoming infected on known risk factors can help target farm biosecurity, surveillance schemes and reduce spread through animal trading. This paper describes a quantitative approach to develop risk scores, based on the probability of infection in a herd with bovine tuberculosis (bTB), to be used in a risk-based trading (RBT) scheme in England and Wales. To produce a practical scoring system the risk factors included need to be simple and quick to understand, sufficiently informative and derived from centralised national databases to enable verification and assess compliance. A logistic regression identified herd history of bTB, local bTB prevalence, herd size and movements of animals onto farms in batches from high risk areas as being significantly associated with the probability of bTB infection on farm. Risk factors were assigned points using the estimated odds ratios to weight them. The farm risk score was defined as the sum of these individual points yielding a range from 1 to 5 and was calculated for each cattle farm that was trading animals in England and Wales at the start of a year. Within 12 months, of those farms tested, 30.3% of score 5 farms had a breakdown (sensitivity). Of farms scoring 1-4 only 5.4% incurred a breakdown (1-specificity). The use of this risk scoring system within RBT has the potential to reduce infected cattle movements; however, there are cost implications in ensuring that the information underpinning any system is accurate and up to date. PMID:26678120

  7. Complex Engineered Systems: A New Paradigm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mina, Ali A.; Braha, Dan; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

    Human history is often seen as an inexorable march towards greater complexity — in ideas, artifacts, social, political and economic systems, technology, and in the structure of life itself. While we do not have detailed knowledge of ancient times, it is reasonable to conclude that the average resident of New York City today faces a world of much greater complexity than the average denizen of Carthage or Tikal. A careful consideration of this change, however, suggests that most of it has occurred recently, and has been driven primarily by the emergence of technology as a force in human life. In the 4000 years separating the Indus Valley Civilization from 18th century Europe, human transportation evolved from the bullock cart to the hansom, and the methods of communication used by George Washington did not differ significantly from those used by Alexander or Rameses. The world has moved radically towards greater complexity in the last two centuries. We have moved from buggies and letter couriers to airplanes and the Internet — an increase in capacity, and through its diversity also in complexity, orders of magnitude greater than that accumulated through the rest of human history. In addition to creating iconic artifacts — the airplane, the car, the computer, the television, etc. — this change has had a profound effect on the scope of experience by creating massive, connected and multiultra- level systems — traffic networks, power grids, markets, multinational corporations — that defy analytical understanding and seem to have a life of their own. This is where complexity truly enters our lives.

  8. Complexity for Survival of Living Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    2009-01-01

    A logical connection between the survivability of living systems and the complexity of their behavior (equivalently, mental complexity) has been established. This connection is an important intermediate result of continuing research on mathematical models that could constitute a unified representation of the evolution of both living and non-living systems. Earlier results of this research were reported in several prior NASA Tech Briefs articles, the two most relevant being Characteristics of Dynamics of Intelligent Systems (NPO- 21037), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 26, No. 12 (December 2002), page 48; and Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems (NPO- 30634) NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (March 2003), page 72. As used here, living systems is synonymous with active systems and intelligent systems. The quoted terms can signify artificial agents (e.g., suitably programmed computers) or natural biological systems ranging from single-cell organisms at one extreme to the whole of human society at the other extreme. One of the requirements that must be satisfied in mathematical modeling of living systems is reconciliation of evolution of life with the second law of thermodynamics. In the approach followed in this research, this reconciliation is effected by means of a model, inspired partly by quantum mechanics, in which the quantum potential is replaced with an information potential. The model captures the most fundamental property of life - the ability to evolve from disorder to order without any external interference. The model incorporates the equations of classical dynamics, including Newton s equations of motion and equations for random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces. The equations of classical dynamics are coupled with corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces that are

  9. Integrating management tools and concepts to develop an estuarine planning support system: A case study of the Humber Estuary, Eastern England.

    PubMed

    Lonsdale, Jemma-Anne; Weston, Keith; Barnard, Steve; Boyes, Suzanne J; Elliott, Michael

    2015-11-15

    Estuaries are important because of their multiple uses and users which often makes them challenging to manage since management must strike a balance between the needs of users, the estuaries' ecological and economic value and the context of multiple legislative drivers. To facilitate management we have therefore developed an Estuarine Planning Support System (EPSS) framework using the Humber Estuary, Eastern England, as a case study which integrates the current legislation tools and concepts. This integrated EPSS framework is an improvement on previous approaches for assessing cumulative impacts as it takes into account legislative drivers, management tools and other mechanisms for controlling plans/projects specific to the estuary. It therefore enables managers and users to assess and address both the current state and the way in which a new industrial, port or urban development could impact an estuary in an accessible and understandable framework. PMID:26342391

  10. Confusion in the Ranks: How Good Are England's Schools?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smithers, Alan

    2013-01-01

    Understanding how well English education performs compared with other countries is a valuable exercise, particularly because the information can help England and other countries learn from successful systems. The most recent international league tables of pupil performance differ considerably. England languishes well down the list in PISA 2009,…

  11. 78 FR 29116 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-17

    ...-8238. Council address: New England Fishery Management Council, 50 Water Street, Mill 2, Newburyport, MA... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0645-XC688 New England Fishery Management Council... Council's (Council) Vessel Monitoring System (VMS)/Enforcement will meet jointly with the Advisory...

  12. Policy for Language Education in England: Does Less Mean More?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Linda

    2004-01-01

    This paper details major and significant developments in the teaching of English to pupils aged 5-16 years in the school system in England, the years of compulsory education. To begin with definitions of terms. There are four aspects of language education provision that pertain in England: (1) the teaching of English as the mother tongue; (2) the…

  13. Network representations of immune system complexity

    PubMed Central

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A.; Germain, Ronald N.; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multi-scale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather non-linear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multi-scale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating ‘omics’ and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  14. Network representations of immune system complexity.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Naeha; Torabi-Parizi, Parizad; Gottschalk, Rachel A; Germain, Ronald N; Dutta, Bhaskar

    2015-01-01

    The mammalian immune system is a dynamic multiscale system composed of a hierarchically organized set of molecular, cellular, and organismal networks that act in concert to promote effective host defense. These networks range from those involving gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions underlying intracellular signaling pathways and single-cell responses to increasingly complex networks of in vivo cellular interaction, positioning, and migration that determine the overall immune response of an organism. Immunity is thus not the product of simple signaling events but rather nonlinear behaviors arising from dynamic, feedback-regulated interactions among many components. One of the major goals of systems immunology is to quantitatively measure these complex multiscale spatial and temporal interactions, permitting development of computational models that can be used to predict responses to perturbation. Recent technological advances permit collection of comprehensive datasets at multiple molecular and cellular levels, while advances in network biology support representation of the relationships of components at each level as physical or functional interaction networks. The latter facilitate effective visualization of patterns and recognition of emergent properties arising from the many interactions of genes, molecules, and cells of the immune system. We illustrate the power of integrating 'omics' and network modeling approaches for unbiased reconstruction of signaling and transcriptional networks with a focus on applications involving the innate immune system. We further discuss future possibilities for reconstruction of increasingly complex cellular- and organism-level networks and development of sophisticated computational tools for prediction of emergent immune behavior arising from the concerted action of these networks. PMID:25625853

  15. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  16. Complex Generalized Synchronization and Parameter Identification of Nonidentical Nonlinear Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shibing; Wang, Xingyuan; Han, Bo

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, generalized synchronization (GS) is extended from real space to complex space, resulting in a new synchronization scheme, complex generalized synchronization (CGS). Based on Lyapunov stability theory, an adaptive controller and parameter update laws are designed to realize CGS and parameter identification of two nonidentical chaotic (hyperchaotic) complex systems with respect to a given complex map vector. This scheme is applied to synchronize a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, a chaotic complex Chen system and a memristor-based chaotic complex Lorenz system, as well as a memristor-based hyperchaotic complexsystem and a chaotic complexsystem with fully unknown parameters. The corresponding numerical simulations illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme. PMID:27014879

  17. The Neo-Liberalisation Policy Agenda and Its Consequences for Education in England: A Focus on Resistance Now and Possibilities for the Future

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maisuria, Alpesh

    2014-01-01

    In this article, the author explores the way that neo-liberalism is becoming more entrenched in the fabric of the education system in England. The article begins by setting out a very brief historical trajectory of neo-liberalism to provide a working definition of a complex and disarticulated socio-political and economic system. In part two, this…

  18. New England Lakes & Ponds Project

    EPA Science Inventory

    The New England Lakes and Ponds Project provides a consistent and first time comprehensive assessment of the ecological and water quality condition of lakes and ponds across the New England region. The project is being conducted by EPA along with the New England Interstate Water...

  19. Disproportionality in Special Needs Education in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dyson, Alan; Gallannaugh, Frances

    2008-01-01

    Unlike the United States, England does not have a special education system based on the identification of students as having disabilities of one or another type. Instead, the English system enables help to be provided to students on the basis of assessments of their individual "special educational needs." The authors consider the implications of…

  20. Simulating Complex Window Systems using BSDF Data

    SciTech Connect

    Konstantoglou, Maria; Jonsson, Jacob; Lee, Eleanor

    2009-06-22

    Nowadays, virtual models are commonly used to evaluate the performance of conventional window systems. Complex fenestration systems can be difficult to simulate accurately not only because of their geometry but also because of their optical properties that scatter light in an unpredictable manner. Bi-directional Scattering Distribution Functions (BSDF) have recently been developed based on a mixture of measurements and modelling to characterize the optics of such systems. This paper describes the workflow needed to create then use these BSDF datasets in the Radiance lighting simulation software. Limited comparisons are made between visualizations produced using the standard ray-tracing method, the BSDF method, and that taken in a full-scale outdoor mockup.

  1. Automated Diagnosis and Control of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kurien, James; Plaunt, Christian; Cannon, Howard; Shirley, Mark; Taylor, Will; Nayak, P.; Hudson, Benoit; Bachmann, Andrew; Brownston, Lee; Hayden, Sandra; Wragg, Steve; Millar, William; Pepke, Shirley; Christa, Scott; Garcia, Ray

    2007-01-01

    Livingstone2 is a reusable, artificial intelligence (AI) software system designed to assist spacecraft, life support systems, chemical plants, or other complex systems by operating with minimal human supervision, even in the face of hardware failures or unexpected events. The software diagnoses the current state of the spacecraft or other system, and recommends commands or repair actions that will allow the system to continue operation. Livingstone2 is an enhancement of the Livingstone diagnosis system that was flight-tested onboard the Deep Space One spacecraft in 1999. This version tracks multiple diagnostic hypotheses, rather than just a single hypothesis as in the previous version. It is also able to revise diagnostic decisions made in the past when additional observations become available. In such cases, Livingstone might arrive at an incorrect hypothesis. Re-architecting and re-implementing the system in C++ has increased performance. Usability has been improved by creating a set of development tools that is closely integrated with the Livingstone2 engine. In addition to the core diagnosis engine, Livingstone2 includes a compiler that translates diagnostic models written in a Java-like language into Livingstone2's language, and a broad set of graphical tools for model development.

  2. Modular interdependency in complex dynamical systems.

    PubMed

    Watson, Richard A; Pollack, Jordan B

    2005-01-01

    Herbert A. Simon's characterization of modularity in dynamical systems describes subsystems as having dynamics that are approximately independent of those of other subsystems (in the short term). This fits with the general intuition that modules must, by definition, be approximately independent. In the evolution of complex systems, such modularity may enable subsystems to be modified and adapted independently of other subsystems, whereas in a nonmodular system, modifications to one part of the system may result in deleterious side effects elsewhere in the system. But this notion of modularity and its effect on evolvability is not well quantified and is rather simplistic. In particular, modularity need not imply that intermodule dependences are weak or unimportant. In dynamical systems this is acknowledged by Simon's suggestion that, in the long term, the dynamical behaviors of subsystems do interact with one another, albeit in an "aggregate" manner--but this kind of intermodule interaction is omitted in models of modularity for evolvability. In this brief discussion we seek to unify notions of modularity in dynamical systems with notions of how modularity affects evolvability. This leads to a quantifiable measure of modularity and a different understanding of its effect on evolvability. PMID:16197673

  3. Addressing the Complexity of the Earth System

    SciTech Connect

    Nobre, Carlos; Brasseur, Guy P.; Shapiro, Melvyn; Lahsen, Myanna; Brunet, Gilbert; Busalacchi, Antonio; Hibbard, Kathleen A.; Seitzinger, Sybil; Noone, Kevin; Ometto, Jean P.

    2010-10-01

    This paper highlights the role of the Earth-system biosphere and illustrates the complex: biosphere-atmosphere interactions in the Amazon Basin, changes in nitrogen cycling, ocean chemistry, and land use. It introduces three important requirements for accelerating the development and use of Earth system information. The first requirement is to develop Earth system analysis and prediction models that account for multi-scale physical, chemical and biological processes, including their interactions in the coupled atmosphere-ocean-land-ice system. The development of these models requires partnerships between academia, national research centers, and operational prediction facilities, and builds upon accomplishments in weather and climate predictions. They will highlight the regional aspects of global change, and include modules for water system, agriculture, forestry, energy, air quality, health, etc. The second requirement is to model the interactions between humans and the weather-climate-biogeochemical system. The third requirement is to introduce novel methodologies to account for societal drivers, impacts and feedbacks. This is a challenging endeavor requiring creative solutions and some compromising because human behavior cannot be fully represented within the framework of present-day physical prediction systems.

  4. Nonlinear Dynamics, Chaotic and Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Infeld, E.; Zelazny, R.; Galkowski, A.

    2011-04-01

    Part I. Dynamic Systems Bifurcation Theory and Chaos: 1. Chaos in random dynamical systems V. M. Gunldach; 2. Controlling chaos using embedded unstable periodic orbits: the problem of optimal periodic orbits B. R. Hunt and E. Ott; 3. Chaotic tracer dynamics in open hydrodynamical flows G. Karolyi, A. Pentek, T. Tel and Z. Toroczkai; 4. Homoclinic chaos L. P. Shilnikov; Part II. Spatially Extended Systems: 5. Hydrodynamics of relativistic probability flows I. Bialynicki-Birula; 6. Waves in ionic reaction-diffusion-migration systems P. Hasal, V. Nevoral, I. Schreiber, H. Sevcikova, D. Snita, and M. Marek; 7. Anomalous scaling in turbulence: a field theoretical approach V. Lvov and I. Procaccia; 8. Abelian sandpile cellular automata M. Markosova; 9. Transport in an incompletely chaotic magnetic field F. Spineanu; Part III. Dynamical Chaos Quantum Physics and Foundations Of Statistical Mechanics: 10. Non-equilibrium statistical mechanics and ergodic theory L. A. Bunimovich; 11. Pseudochaos in statistical physics B. Chirikov; 12. Foundations of non-equilibrium statistical mechanics J. P. Dougherty; 13. Thermomechanical particle simulations W. G. Hoover, H. A. Posch, C. H. Dellago, O. Kum, C. G. Hoover, A. J. De Groot and B. L. Holian; 14. Quantum dynamics on a Markov background and irreversibility B. Pavlov; 15. Time chaos and the laws of nature I. Prigogine and D. J. Driebe; 16. Evolutionary Q and cognitive systems: dynamic entropies and predictability of evolutionary processes W. Ebeling; 17. Spatiotemporal chaos information processing in neural networks H. Szu; 18. Phase transitions and learning in neural networks C. Van den Broeck; 19. Synthesis of chaos A. Vanecek and S. Celikovsky; 20. Computational complexity of continuous problems H. Wozniakowski; Part IV. Complex Systems As An Interface Between Natural Sciences and Environmental Social and Economic Sciences: 21. Stochastic differential geometry in finance studies V. G. Makhankov; Part V. Conference Banquet

  5. PREFACE: Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mosekilde, Erik; Bohr, Tomas; Rasmussen, Jens Juul; Leth Christiansen, Peter

    1996-01-01

    Self-organization, or the spontaneous emergence of patterns and structures under far-from-equilibrium conditions, turbulence, and related nonlinear dynamic phenomena in spatially extended systems have developed into one of the most exciting topics of modern science. Phenomena of this type arise in a wide variety of different fields, ranging from the development of chemical and biological patterns in reaction-diffusion systems over vortex formation in connection with chemical, optical, hydrodynamic or magnetohydrodynamic turbulence to technical applications in connection with liquid crystal displays or pulse compression in optical communication systems. Lasers often show interesting patterns produced by self-focusing and other nonlinear phenomena, diffusion limited aggregation is known to generate fractal-like structures, and amazing struc- tures also arise in bacterial growth processes or when a droplet of an oil suspension of finely divided magnetic particles is subject to a magnetic field perpendicular to the surface of the cell in which it is contained. In September 1995 the Niels Bohr Institute in Copenhagen was the venue of an International Conference on Complex Dynamics in Spatially Extended Systems. Organizers of the conference were the three Danish centers for nonlinear dynamics: The Center for Chaos and Turbulence Studies (CATS), located at the Niels Bohr Institute; the Center for Modeling, Nonlinear Dynamics and Irreversible Thermodynamics (MIDIT), located at the Technical University of Denmark, and the Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Continuum Systems, located at the Risø National Laboratories. In the spirit of the successful NATO Advanced Research Workshops on Spatiotemporal Patterns in Nonequilibrium Systems of which the last was held in Santa Fe, New Mexico in 1993, the conference aimed at stimulating new ideas and providing a forum for the exchange of knowledge between leading practitioners of the field. With its 50 invited speakers and more than

  6. Characterization of fHbp, nhba (gna2132), nadA, porA, Sequence Type (ST), and Genomic Presence of IS1301 in Group B Meningococcal ST269 Clonal Complex Isolates from England and Wales▿

    PubMed Central

    Lucidarme, Jay; Comanducci, Maurizio; Findlow, Jamie; Gray, Stephen J.; Kaczmarski, Edward B.; Guiver, Malcolm; Kugelberg, Elisabeth; Vallely, Pamela J.; Oster, Philipp; Pizza, Mariagrazia; Bambini, Stefania; Muzzi, Alessandro; Tang, Christoph M.; Borrow, Ray

    2009-01-01

    Highly effective glycoconjugate vaccines exist against four of the five major pathogenic groups of meningococci: A, C, W-135, and Y. An equivalent vaccine against group B meningococci (menB) has remained elusive due to the poorly immunogenic capsular polysaccharide. A promising alternative, the investigational recombinant menB (rMenB)- outer membrane vesicle (OMV) vaccine, contains fHBP, NHBA (previously GNA2132), NadA, and outer membrane vesicles (OMVs) from the New Zealand MeNZB vaccine. MenB currently accounts for 90% of meningococcal disease in England and Wales, where the multilocus sequence type (ST) 269 (ST269) clonal complex (cc269) has recently expanded to account for a third of menB cases. To assess the potential cc269 coverage of the rMenB-OMV vaccine, English and Welsh cc269 isolates from the past decade were genetically characterized with respect to fHBP, NHBA, and NadA. All of the isolates harbored fHbp and nhba alleles, while 98% of the cc269 isolates were devoid of nadA. Subvariant profiling of fHbp, nhba, and porA against STs revealed the presence of two broadly distinct and well-defined clusters of isolates, centered around ST269 and ST275, respectively. An additional molecular marker, insertion sequence IS1301, was found to be present in 100% and <2% of isolates of the respective clusters. On the basis of the genetic data, the potential rMenB-OMV coverage of cc269 in England and Wales is high (up to 100%) within both clusters. Expression studies and serum bactericidal antibody assays will serve to enhance predictions of coverage and will augment ongoing studies regarding the significance of IS1301 within the ST269 cluster. PMID:19759227

  7. Assessment Environment for Complex Systems Software Guide

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2013-01-01

    This Software Guide (SG) describes the software developed to test the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems (AECS) by the West Virginia High Technology Consortium (WVHTC) Foundation's Mission Systems Group (MSG) for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD). This software is referred to as the AECS Test Project throughout the remainder of this document. AECS provides a framework for developing, simulating, testing, and analyzing modern avionics systems within an Integrated Modular Avionics (IMA) architecture. The purpose of the AECS Test Project is twofold. First, it provides a means to test the AECS hardware and system developed by MSG. Second, it provides an example project upon which future AECS research may be based. This Software Guide fully describes building, installing, and executing the AECS Test Project as well as its architecture and design. The design of the AECS hardware is described in the AECS Hardware Guide. Instructions on how to configure, build and use the AECS are described in the User's Guide. Sample AECS software, developed by the WVHTC Foundation, is presented in the AECS Software Guide. The AECS Hardware Guide, AECS User's Guide, and AECS Software Guide are authored by MSG. The requirements set forth for AECS are presented in the Statement of Work for the Assessment Environment for Complex Systems authored by NASA Dryden Flight Research Center (DFRC). The intended audience for this document includes software engineers, hardware engineers, project managers, and quality assurance personnel from WVHTC Foundation (the suppliers of the software), NASA (the customer), and future researchers (users of the software). Readers are assumed to have general knowledge in the field of real-time, embedded computer software development.

  8. Melmark New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cancro, Lorraine

    2009-01-01

    This article features Melmark New England, a private, nonprofit, community based organization dedicated to serving children and adolescents with autism spectrum disorders, acquired brain injury, neurological diseases and disorders, and severe challenging behaviors. The Melmark parent corporation, a Pennsylvania based provider of services for those…

  9. New Developments in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Nicola

    2012-01-01

    Early years education in England has undergone a number of radical changes in the last decade. More recently, a change in government after the 2010 UK general election has meant that early years practitioners have experienced a period of uncertainty and change in policy in line with the ambitions and philosophy of the new Conservative/Liberal…

  10. Contrarian behavior in a complex adaptive system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Y.; An, K. N.; Yang, G.; Huang, J. P.

    2013-01-01

    Contrarian behavior is a kind of self-organization in complex adaptive systems (CASs). Here we report the existence of a transition point in a model resource-allocation CAS with contrarian behavior by using human experiments, computer simulations, and theoretical analysis. The resource ratio and system predictability serve as the tuning parameter and order parameter, respectively. The transition point helps to reveal the positive or negative role of contrarian behavior. This finding is in contrast to the common belief that contrarian behavior always has a positive role in resource allocation, say, stabilizing resource allocation by shrinking the redundancy or the lack of resources. It is further shown that resource allocation can be optimized at the transition point by adding an appropriate size of contrarians. This work is also expected to be of value to some other fields ranging from management and social science to ecology and evolution.

  11. Theoretical kinetic computations in complex reacting systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bittker, David A.

    1986-01-01

    Nasa Lewis' studies of complex reacting systems at high temperature are discussed. The changes which occur are the result of many different chemical reactions occurring at the same time. Both an experimental and a theoretical approach are needed to fully understand what happens in these systems. The latter approach is discussed. The differential equations which describe the chemical and thermodynamic changes are given. Their solution by numerical techniques using a detailed chemical mechanism is described. Several different comparisons of computed results with experimental measurements are also given. These include the computation of (1) species concentration profiles in batch and flow reactions, (2) rocket performance in nozzle expansions, and (3) pressure versus time profiles in hydrocarbon ignition processes. The examples illustrate the use of detailed kinetic computations to elucidate a chemical mechanism and to compute practical quantities such as rocket performance, ignition delay times, and ignition lengths in flow processes.

  12. Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K. (Compiler)

    2004-01-01

    The document contains the proceedings of the training workshop on Innovative Design of Complex Engineering Systems. The workshop was held at the Peninsula Higher Education Center, Hampton, Virginia, March 23 and 24, 2004. The workshop was jointly sponsored by Old Dominion University and NASA. Workshop attendees came from NASA, other government agencies, industry and universities. The objectives of the workshop were to a) provide broad overviews of the diverse activities related to innovative design of high-tech engineering systems; and b) identify training needs for future aerospace work force development in the design area. The format of the workshop included fifteen, half-hour overview-type presentations, a panel discussion on how to teach and train engineers in innovative design, and three exhibits by commercial vendors.

  13. Topological analysis of complexity in multiagent systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abaid, Nicole; Bollt, Erik; Porfiri, Maurizio

    2012-04-01

    Social organisms at every level of evolutionary complexity live in groups, such as fish schools, locust swarms, and bird flocks. The complex exchange of multifaceted information across group members may result in a spectrum of salient spatiotemporal patterns characterizing collective behaviors. While instances of collective behavior in animal groups are readily identifiable by trained and untrained observers, a working definition to distinguish these patterns from raw data is not yet established. In this work, we define collective behavior as a manifestation of low-dimensional manifolds in the group motion and we quantify the complexity of such behaviors through the dimensionality of these structures. We demonstrate this definition using the ISOMAP algorithm, a data-driven machine learning algorithm for dimensionality reduction originally formulated in the context of image processing. We apply the ISOMAP algorithm to data from an interacting self-propelled particle model with additive noise, whose parameters are selected to exhibit different behavioral modalities, and from a video of a live fish school. Based on simulations of such model, we find that increasing noise in the system of particles corresponds to increasing the dimensionality of the structures underlying their motion. These low-dimensional structures are absent in simulations where particles do not interact. Applying the ISOMAP algorithm to fish school data, we identify similar low-dimensional structures, which may act as quantitative evidence for order inherent in collective behavior of animal groups. These results offer an unambiguous method for measuring order in data from large-scale biological systems and confirm the emergence of collective behavior in an applicable mathematical model, thus demonstrating that such models are capable of capturing phenomena observed in animal groups.

  14. Alarm system for a nuclear control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1994-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  15. Intrinsic Uncertainties in Modeling Complex Systems.

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, Curtis S; Bramson, Aaron L.; Ames, Arlo L.

    2014-09-01

    Models are built to understand and predict the behaviors of both natural and artificial systems. Because it is always necessary to abstract away aspects of any non-trivial system being modeled, we know models can potentially leave out important, even critical elements. This reality of the modeling enterprise forces us to consider the prospective impacts of those effects completely left out of a model - either intentionally or unconsidered. Insensitivity to new structure is an indication of diminishing returns. In this work, we represent a hypothetical unknown effect on a validated model as a finite perturba- tion whose amplitude is constrained within a control region. We find robustly that without further constraints, no meaningful bounds can be placed on the amplitude of a perturbation outside of the control region. Thus, forecasting into unsampled regions is a very risky proposition. We also present inherent difficulties with proper time discretization of models and representing in- herently discrete quantities. We point out potentially worrisome uncertainties, arising from math- ematical formulation alone, which modelers can inadvertently introduce into models of complex systems. Acknowledgements This work has been funded under early-career LDRD project #170979, entitled "Quantify- ing Confidence in Complex Systems Models Having Structural Uncertainties", which ran from 04/2013 to 09/2014. We wish to express our gratitude to the many researchers at Sandia who con- tributed ideas to this work, as well as feedback on the manuscript. In particular, we would like to mention George Barr, Alexander Outkin, Walt Beyeler, Eric Vugrin, and Laura Swiler for provid- ing invaluable advice and guidance through the course of the project. We would also like to thank Steven Kleban, Amanda Gonzales, Trevor Manzanares, and Sarah Burwell for their assistance in managing project tasks and resources.

  16. Complex flows in granular and quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herrera, Mark Richard

    In this thesis we investigate three problems involving complex flows in granular and quantum systems. (a) We first study the dynamics of granular particles in a split-bottom shear cell experiment. We utilize network theory to quantify the dynamics of the granular system at the mesoscopic scale. We find an apparent phase transition in the formation of a giant component of broken links as a function of applied shear. These results are compared to a numerical model where breakages are based on the amount of local stretching in the granular pile. (b) Moving to quantum mechanical systems, we study revival and echo phenomena in systems of anharmonically confined atoms, and find a novel phenomena we call the "pre-revival echo". We study the effect of size and symmetry of the perturbations on the various echoes and revivals, and form a perturbative model to describe the phenomena. We then model the effect of interactions using the Gross-Pitaevskii Equation and study interactions' effect on the revivals. (c) Lastly, we continue to study the effect of interactions on particles in weakly anharmonic traps. We numerically observe a "dynamical localization" phenomena in the presence of both anharmonicity and interactions. States may remain localized or become spread out in the potential depending on the strength and sign of the anharmonicity and interactions. We formulate a model for this phenomena in terms of a classical phase space.

  17. Automatic restart of complex irrigation systems

    SciTech Connect

    Werner, H.D.; Alcock, R.; DeBoer, D.W.; Olson, D.I. . Dept. of Agricultural Engineering)

    1992-05-01

    Automatic restart of irrigation systems under load management has the potential to maximize pumping time during off-peak hours. Existing automation technology ranges from time delay relays to more sophisticated control using computers together with weather data to optimize irrigation practices. Centrifugal pumps and water hammer concerns prevent automatic restart of common but often complex irrigation systems in South Dakota. The irrigator must manually prime the pump and control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Methods to prime centrifugal pumps and control water hammer facilitate automatic restart after load management is released. Seven priming methods and three water hammer control methods were investigated. A sump pump and small vacuum pump were used to test two automatic prime and restart systems in the laboratory. A variable frequency phase converter was also used to automatically control water hammer during pipeline pressurization. Economical methods to safely prime and restart centrifugal pumps were discussed. The water hammer control methods safely pressurize the pipeline but require a higher initial investment. The automatic restart systems can be used to safely restart centrifugal pumps and control water hammer after load management is released. Based upon laboratory research and a technical review of available restart components, a computer software program was developed. The program assists customers in evaluating various restart options for automatic restarting of electric irrigation pumps. For further information on the software program, contact the South Dakota State University, Department of Agricultural Engineering.

  18. Orbital Architectures of Dynamically Complex Exoplanet Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Benjamin E.

    2015-01-01

    The most powerful constraints on planet formation will come from characterizing the dynamical state of complex multi-planet systems. Unfortunately, with that complexity comes a number of factors that make analyzing these systems a computationally challenging endeavor: the sheer number of model parameters, a wonky shaped posterior distribution, and hundreds to thousands of time series measurements. We develop a differential evolution Markov chain Monte Carlo (RUN DMC) to tackle these difficult aspects of data analysis. We apply RUN DMC to two classic multi-planet systems from radial velocity surveys, 55 Cancri and GJ 876. For 55 Cancri, we find the inner-most planet "e" must be coplanar to within 40 degrees of the outer planets, otherwise Kozai-like perturbations will cause the planet's orbit to cross the stellar surface. We find the orbits of planets "b" and "c" are apsidally aligned and librating with low to median amplitude (50±610 degrees), but they are not orbiting in a mean-motion resonance. For GJ 876, we can meaningfully constrain the three-dimensional orbital architecture of all the planets based on the radial velocity data alone. By demanding orbital stability, we find the resonant planets have low mutual inclinations (Φ) so they must be roughly coplanar (Φcb = 1.41±0.620.57 degrees and Φbe = 3.87±1.991.86 degrees). The three-dimensional Laplace argument librates with an amplitude of 50.5±7.910.0 degrees, indicating significant past disk migration and ensuring long-term stability. These empirically derived models will provide new challenges for planet formation models and motivate the need for more sophisticated algorithms to analyze exoplanet data.

  19. Geomorphology of New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Denny, C.S.

    1982-01-01

    Widely scattered terrestrial deposits of Cretaceous or Tertiary age and extensive nearshore and fluvial Coastal Plain deposits now largely beneath the sea indicate that the New England region has been above sea level during and since the Late Cretaceous. Estimates of rates of erosion based on sediment load in rivers and on volume of sediments in the Coastal Plain suggest that if the New England highlands had not been uplifted in the Miocene, the area would now be largely a lowland. If the estimated rates of erosion and uplift are of the right order of magnitude, then it is extremely unlikely that any part of the present landscape dates back before Miocene time. The only exception would be lowlands eroded in the early Mesozoic, later buried beneath Mesozoic and Cenozoic deposits, and exhumed by stream and glacial erosion during the later Cenozoic. Many of the rocks in the New England highlands are similar to those that underlie the Piedmont province in the central and southern Appalachians, where the relief over large areas is much less than in the highlands of New England. These comparisons suggest that the New England highlands have been upwarped in late Cenozoic time. The uplift took place in the Miocene and may have continued into the Quaternary. The New England landscape is primarily controlled by the underlying bedrock. Erosion and deposition during the Quaternary, related in large part to glaciation, have produced only minor changes in drainage and in topography. Shale and graywacke of Ordovician, Cambrian, and Proterozoic age forming the Taconic highlands, and akalic plutonic rocks of Mesozoic age are all highland makers. Sandstone and shale of Jurassic and Triassic age, similar rocks of Carboniferous age, and dolomite, limestone, and shale of Ordovician and Cambrian age commonly underlie lowlands. High-grade metapelites are more resistant than similar schists of low metamorphic grade and form the highest mountains in New England. Feldspathic rocks tend to

  20. Empirical and theoretical analysis of complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guannan

    This thesis is an interdisciplinary work under the heading of complexity science which focuses on an arguably common "hard" problem across physics, finance and biology [1], to quantify and mimic the macroscopic "emergent phenomenon" in large-scale systems consisting of many interacting "particles" governed by microscopic rules. In contrast to traditional statistical physics, we are interested in systems whose dynamics are subject to feedback, evolution, adaption, openness, etc. Global financial markets, like the stock market and currency market, are ideal candidate systems for such a complexity study: there exists a vast amount of accurate data, which is the aggregate output of many autonomous agents continuously competing with each other. We started by examining the ultrafast "mini flash crash (MFC)" events in the US stock market. An abrupt system-wide composition transition from a mixed human machine phase to a new all-machine phase is uncovered, and a novel theory developed to explain this observation. Then in the study of FX market, we found an unexpected variation in the synchronicity of price changes in different market subsections as a function of the overall trading activity. Several survival models have been tested in analyzing the distribution of waiting times to the next price change. In the region of long waiting-times, the distribution for each currency pair exhibits a power law with exponent in the vicinity of 3.5. By contrast, for short waiting times only, the market activity can be mimicked by the fluctuations emerging from a finite resource competition model containing multiple agents with limited rationality (so called El Farol Model). Switching to the biomedical domain, we present a minimal mathematical model built around a co-evolving resource network and cell population, yielding good agreement with primary tumors in mice experiment and with clinical metastasis data. In the quest to understand contagion phenomena in systems where social group

  1. The Current Brouhaha about Standards in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Roger

    2010-01-01

    Following a report by a Parliamentary Committee, the Higher Education Funding Council for England is consulting the sector about a strengthened national quality assurance system, with an enhanced role for information about quality and a closer focus on academic standards. This article provides a critical review of the main proposals.

  2. Polish Complementary Schools in Iceland and England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zielinska, Malgorzata; Kowzan, Piotr; Ragnarsdóttir, Hanna

    2014-01-01

    Since 2004, the opening of labour markets has spurred a considerable number of Poles to emigrate e.g. to Iceland and England. Families with school age children have had the challenge of adapting to foreign environments and school systems. Polish complementary schools have played an important, albeit ambivalent, role in this process. Through focus…

  3. A New Sentinel Surveillance System for Severe Influenza in England Shows a Shift in Age Distribution of Hospitalised Cases in the Post-Pandemic Period

    PubMed Central

    Bolotin, Shelly; Pebody, Richard; White, Peter J.; McMenamin, James; Perera, Luke; Nguyen-Van-Tam, Jonathan S.; Barlow, Thomas; Watson, John M.

    2012-01-01

    Background The World Health Organization and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control have highlighted the importance of establishing systems to monitor severe influenza. Following the H1N1 (2009) influenza pandemic, a sentinel network of 23 Trusts, the UK Severe Influenza Surveillance System (USISS), was established to monitor hospitalisations due to confirmed seasonal influenza in England. This article presents the results of the first season of operation of USISS in 2010/11. Methodology/Principal Findings A case was defined as a person hospitalised with confirmed influenza of any type. Weekly aggregate numbers of hospitalised influenza cases, broken down by flu type and level of care, were submitted by participating Trusts. Cases in 2010/11 were compared to cases during the 2009 pandemic in hospitals with available surveillance data for both time periods (n = 19). An unexpected resurgence in seasonal A/H1N1 (2009) influenza activity in England was observed in December 2010 with reports of severe disease. Reported cases over the period of 4 October 2010 to 13 February 2011 were mostly due to influenza A/H1N1 (2009). One thousand and seventy-one cases of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) occurred over this period compared to 409 at the same Trusts over the 2009/10 pandemic period (1 April 2009 to 6 January 2010). Median age of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) cases in 2010/11 was 35 years, compared with 20 years during the pandemic (p = <0.0001). Conclusions/Significance The Health Protection Agency successfully established a sentinel surveillance system for severe influenza in 2010/11, detecting a rise in influenza cases mirroring other surveillance indicators. The data indicate an upward shift in the age-distribution of influenza A/H1N1 (2009) during the 2010/11 influenza season as compared to the 2009/10 pandemic. Systems to enable the ongoing surveillance of severe influenza will be a key component in understanding and responding to the evolving epidemiology of

  4. Complex biological and bio-inspired systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    The understanding and characterization ofthe fundamental processes of the function of biological systems underpins many of the important challenges facing American society, from the pathology of infectious disease and the efficacy ofvaccines, to the development of materials that mimic biological functionality and deliver exceptional and novel structural and dynamic properties. These problems are fundamentally complex, involving many interacting components and poorly understood bio-chemical kinetics. We use the basic science of statistical physics, kinetic theory, cellular bio-chemistry, soft-matter physics, and information science to develop cell level models and explore the use ofbiomimetic materials. This project seeks to determine how cell level processes, such as response to mechanical stresses, chemical constituents and related gradients, and other cell signaling mechanisms, integrate and combine to create a functioning organism. The research focuses on the basic physical processes that take place at different levels ofthe biological organism: the basic role of molecular and chemical interactions are investigated, the dynamics of the DNA-molecule and its phylogenetic role are examined and the regulatory networks of complex biochemical processes are modeled. These efforts may lead to early warning algorithms ofpathogen outbreaks, new bio-sensors to detect hazards from pathomic viruses to chemical contaminants. Other potential applications include the development of efficient bio-fuel alternative-energy processes and the exploration ofnovel materials for energy usages. Finally, we use the notion of 'coarse-graining,' which is a method for averaging over less important degrees of freedom to develop computational models to predict cell function and systems-level response to disease, chemical stress, or biological pathomic agents. This project supports Energy Security, Threat Reduction, and the missions of the DOE Office of Science through its efforts to accurately

  5. Complexity in Strongly Correlated Electronic Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Dagotto, Elbio R

    2005-01-01

    A wide variety of experimental results and theoretical investigations in recent years have convincingly demonstrated that several transition metal oxides and other materials have dominant states that are not spatially homogeneous. This occurs in cases in which several physical interactions - spin, charge, lattice, and/or orbital - are simultaneously active. This phenomenon causes interesting effects, such as colossal magnetoresistance, and it also appears crucial to understand the high-temperature superconductors. The spontaneous emergence of electronic nanometer-scale structures in transition metal oxides, and the existence of many competing states, are properties often associated with complex matter where nonlinearities dominate, such as soft materials and biological systems. This electronic complexity could have potential consequences for applications of correlated electronic materials, because not only charge (semiconducting electronic), or charge and spin (spintronics) are of relevance, but in addition the lattice and orbital degrees of freedom are active, leading to giant responses to small perturbations. Moreover, several metallic and insulating phases compete, increasing the potential for novel behavior.

  6. Origin of Hofmeister Effects for Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Rui; Yang, Gang; Tang, Ying; Liu, Xinmin; Li, Rui; Zhu, Hualing; Li, Hang

    2015-01-01

    Hofmeister effects have been recognized as important as Mendel’s work was to genetics while remain largely controversial, especially for the mechanistic aspects. Here we demonstrated that complex colloids in electrolyte solutions show resembling aggregation kinetics as model colloid, and then quantitatively evaluated the resulting Hofmeister effects. Mechanism for the aggregation of complex colloids has been proposed that is closely associated with the charges of their constituents; despite that, electrostatic interactions play a minor role while polarization effect is evidenced to be the driving force for the aggregation processes. Polarization effect is further ascribed to arouse the resulting Hofmeister effects, which is supported by the fine correlation of activation energies vs. polarizability data of different alkali ions and the calculations of dipole moments for minerals with different charges and adsorbed alkali ions. Because of neglecting polarization effect, the prevailing DLVO theory is not sufficient to describe Hofmeister effects that are ubiquitous in nature. We speculate that polarization effect should also be responsible for Hofmeister effects of other charged systems such as proteins and membranes. PMID:26200350

  7. Using SysML to model complex systems for security.

    SciTech Connect

    Cano, Lester Arturo

    2010-08-01

    As security systems integrate more Information Technology the design of these systems has tended to become more complex. Some of the most difficult issues in designing Complex Security Systems (CSS) are: Capturing Requirements: Defining Hardware Interfaces: Defining Software Interfaces: Integrating Technologies: Radio Systems: Voice Over IP Systems: Situational Awareness Systems.

  8. Adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization of uncertain real and complex nonlinear systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shi-bing; Wang, Xing-yuan; Wang, Xiu-you; Zhou, Yu-fei

    2016-04-01

    With comprehensive consideration of generalized synchronization, combination synchronization and adaptive control, this paper investigates a novel adaptive generalized combination complex synchronization (AGCCS) scheme for different real and complex nonlinear systems with unknown parameters. On the basis of Lyapunov stability theory and adaptive control, an AGCCS controller and parameter update laws are derived to achieve synchronization and parameter identification of two real drive systems and a complex response system, as well as two complex drive systems and a real response system. Two simulation examples, namely, ACGCS for chaotic real Lorenz and Chen systems driving a hyperchaotic complexsystem, and hyperchaotic complex Lorenz and Chen systems driving a real chaotic Lü system, are presented to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed scheme.

  9. Understanding Complex Adaptive Systems by Playing Games

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van Bilsen, Arthur; Bekebrede, Geertje; Mayer, Igor

    2010-01-01

    While educators teach their students about decision making in complex environments, managers have to deal with the complexity of large projects on a daily basis. To make better decisions it is assumed, that the latter would benefit from better understanding of complex phenomena, as do students as the professionals of the future. The goal of this…

  10. A complex systems approach to bibliometrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stringer, Michael J.

    Enabled by technological change, we are in the midst of a fundamental shift in how scientific information is produced and communicated. Electronic publishing, preprint archives, blogs, and wikis are emerging as possible viable alternatives to the current journal publishing and peer review system. However, these new technologies flood the environment with information, making it increasingly difficult to find the highest quality and most relevant papers. Additionally, accreditation and quality assessment of published material becomes nearly impossible for agencies interested in funding the research and development that is most likely to succeed. Recently, bibliometric tools have emerged as an effective means for the filtering, accreditation, and assessment of scholarly information. In this thesis, we approach bibliometrics from a complex systems perspective. A unique characteristic of the work presented in this thesis is that we perform empirical validation of bibliometric models using the most comprehensive bibliographic database available. Using these methods, we quantify the dynamics of citations to scientific journals, and investigate the relationship between social network position and research performance.

  11. Estimating vaccine effectiveness against severe influenza in England and Scotland 2011/2012: applying the screening method to data from intensive care surveillance systems.

    PubMed

    Thomas, H L; Andrews, N; Green, H K; Boddington, N L; Zhao, H; Reynolds, A; McMenamin, J; Pebody, R G

    2014-01-01

    Methods for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) against severe influenza are not well established. We used the screening method to estimate VE against influenza resulting in intensive care unit (ICU) admission in England and Scotland in 2011/2012. We extracted data on confirmed influenza ICU cases from severe influenza surveillance systems, and obtained their 2011/2012 trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) status from primary care. We compared case vaccine uptake with population vaccine uptake obtained from routine monitoring systems, adjusting for age group, specific risk group, region and week. Of 60 influenza ICU cases reported, vaccination status was available for 56 (93%). Adjusted VE against ICU admission for those aged ≥ 65 years was -10% [95% confidence interval (CI) -207 to 60], consistent with evidence of poor protection from the 2011/2012 TIV in 2011/2012. Adjusted VE for those aged <65 years in risk groups was -296% (95% CI -930 to -52), suggesting significant residual confounding using the screening method in those subject to selective vaccination. PMID:23591102

  12. Rupture Synchronicity in Complex Fault Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milner, K. R.; Jordan, T. H.

    2013-12-01

    While most investigators would agree that the timing of large earthquakes within a fault system depends on stress-mediated interactions among its elements, much of the debate relevant to time-dependent forecasting has been centered on single-fault concepts, such as characteristic earthquake behavior. We propose to broaden this discussion by quantifying the multi-fault concept of rupture synchronicity. We consider a finite set of small, fault-spanning volumes {Vk} within a fault system of arbitrary (fractal) complexity. We let Ck be the catalog of length tmax comprising Nk discrete times {ti(k)} that mark when the kth volume participates in a rupture of magnitude > M. The main object of our analysis is the complete set of event time differences {τij(kk') = ti(k) - tj(k')}, which we take to be a random process with an expected density function ρkk'(t). When k = k', we call this function the auto-catalog density function (ACDF); when k ≠ k', we call it the cross-catalog density function (CCDF). The roles of the ACDF and CCDF in synchronicity theory are similar to those of autocorrelation and cross-correlation functions in time-series analysis. For a renewal process, the ACDF can be written in terms of convolutions of the interevent-time distribution, and many of its properties (e.g., large-t asymptote) can be derived analytically. The interesting information in the CCDF, like that in the ACDF, is concentrated near t = 0. If two catalogs are completely asynchronous, the CCDF collapses to an asymptote given by the harmonic mean of the ACDF asymptotes. Synchronicity can therefore be characterized by the variability of the CCDF about this asymptote. The brevity of instrumental catalogs makes the identification of synchronicity at large M difficult, but we will illustrate potentially interesting behaviors through the analysis of a million-year California catalog generated by the earthquake simulator, RSQSim (Deiterich & Richards-Dinger, 2010), which we sampled at a

  13. Management Strategies for Complex Adaptive Systems: Sensemaking, Learning, and Improvisation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McDaniel, Reuben R., Jr.

    2007-01-01

    Misspecification of the nature of organizations may be a major reason for difficulty in achieving performance improvement. Organizations are often viewed as machine-like, but complexity science suggests that organizations should be viewed as complex adaptive systems. I identify the characteristics of complex adaptive systems and give examples of…

  14. Uncoupled O and Hf isotopic systems in zircon from the contrasting granite suites of the New England Orogen, eastern Australia: Implications for studies of Phanerozoic magma genesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeon, Heejin; Williams, Ian S.; Bennett, Vickie C.

    2014-12-01

    The Permo-Triassic granites of the New England Orogen, eastern Australia, were emplaced into a volcanic arc complex accreted to the eastern Gondwana margin in the Late Devonian or Early Carboniferous. Zircon U-Pb dating shows that the S-type Hillgrove (∼297 Ma) and Bundarra (∼287 Ma) Supersuites predated intrusion of the I-type Moonbi Supersuite (∼250 Ma) by up to 50 Ma. The high δ18Ozrn of the S-type granites (10.0-11.5‰), and range of U-Pb ages (∼370-300 Ma) and δ18Ozrn (∼5-10‰) of their inherited zircon cores, show that their source rocks were predominantly weathered Carboniferous volcaniclastics, the youngest deposited < 25 Ma before the granites were emplaced. In contrast, the lower δ18Ozrn (6.9-7.8‰) and lack of inheritance in the I-type granites is consistent with a zircon poor, more juvenile source, probably a mafic igneous underplate mixed with a small amount of volcanogenic and/or oceanic sediment. Despite the differences in source materials, the εHf(t) values of all granites, both S- and I-type, are similar (+5.0 ± 0.5 cf. +5.9 ± 0.5), consistent with both the mafic and sedimentary components in the granite sources being relatively young and similar in Hf isotopic composition at the time of granite genesis. In young, isotopically juvenile orogens, the O isotopic composition of well-dated igneous and inherited zircon can be a much more sensitive indicator of petrogenetic processes than the zircon Hf isotopic compositions alone.

  15. Inference, simulation, modeling, and analysis of complex networks, with special emphasis on complex networks in systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Claire Petra

    Across diverse fields ranging from physics to biology, sociology, and economics, the technological advances of the past decade have engendered an unprecedented explosion of data on highly complex systems with thousands, if not millions of interacting components. These systems exist at many scales of size and complexity, and it is becoming ever-more apparent that they are, in fact, universal, arising in every field of study. Moreover, they share fundamental properties---chief among these, that the individual interactions of their constituent parts may be well-understood, but the characteristic behaviour produced by the confluence of these interactions---by these complex networks---is unpredictable; in a nutshell, the whole is more than the sum of its parts. There is, perhaps, no better illustration of this concept than the discoveries being made regarding complex networks in the biological sciences. In particular, though the sequencing of the human genome in 2003 was a remarkable feat, scientists understand that the "cellular-level blueprints" for the human being are cellular-level parts lists, but they say nothing (explicitly) about cellular-level processes. The challenge of modern molecular biology is to understand these processes in terms of the networks of parts---in terms of the interactions among proteins, enzymes, genes, and metabolites---as it is these processes that ultimately differentiate animate from inanimate, giving rise to life! It is the goal of systems biology---an umbrella field encapsulating everything from molecular biology to epidemiology in social systems---to understand processes in terms of fundamental networks of core biological parts, be they proteins or people. By virtue of the fact that there are literally countless complex systems, not to mention tools and techniques used to infer, simulate, analyze, and model these systems, it is impossible to give a truly comprehensive account of the history and study of complex systems. The author

  16. Earthquakes in New England

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Fratto, E. S.; Ebel, J.E.; Kadinsky-Cade, K.

    1990-01-01

    New England has a long history of earthquakes. Some of the first explorers were startled when they experienced strong shaking and rumbling of the earth below their feet. they soon learned from the Indians that this was not an uncommon occurrence in the New World. the Plymouth Pilgrims felt their first earthquake in 1638. that first shock rattled dishes, doors, and buildings. The shaking so frightened those working in the fields that they threw down their tools and ran panic-stricken through the countryside. 

  17. Complex systems thinking and current impasses in health disparities research.

    PubMed

    Diez Roux, Ana V

    2011-09-01

    Complex systems approaches have received increasing attention in public health because reductionist approaches yield limited insights in the context of dynamic systems. Most discussions have been highly abstract. There is a need to consider the application of complex systems approaches to specific research questions. I review the features of population health problems for which complex systems approaches are most likely to yield new insights, and discuss possible applications of complex systems to health disparities research. I provide illustrative examples of how complex systems approaches may help address unanswered and persistent questions regarding genetic factors, life course processes, place effects, and the impact of upstream policies. The concepts and methods of complex systems may help researchers move beyond current impasse points in health disparities research. PMID:21778505

  18. Multistage spectral relaxation method for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems.

    PubMed

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  19. Multistage Spectral Relaxation Method for Solving the Hyperchaotic Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Saberi Nik, Hassan; Rebelo, Paulo

    2014-01-01

    We present a pseudospectral method application for solving the hyperchaotic complex systems. The proposed method, called the multistage spectral relaxation method (MSRM) is based on a technique of extending Gauss-Seidel type relaxation ideas to systems of nonlinear differential equations and using the Chebyshev pseudospectral methods to solve the resulting system on a sequence of multiple intervals. In this new application, the MSRM is used to solve famous hyperchaotic complex systems such as hyperchaotic complex Lorenz system and the complex permanent magnet synchronous motor. We compare this approach to the Runge-Kutta based ode45 solver to show that the MSRM gives accurate results. PMID:25386624

  20. Electromagnetic coupling on complex systems - Topological approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parmantier, J. P.; Labaume, G.; Alliot, J. C.; Degauque, P.

    The principles of electromagnetic topology, developed by Baum, are reviewed. The method involves breaking a complex electromagnetic problem down into several small ones that are easier to solve. An example is used to illustrate the advantages of the approach.

  1. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System.

    PubMed

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model-Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  2. Studies of complexity in fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Nagel, Sidney R.

    2000-06-12

    This is the final report of Grant DE-FG02-92ER25119, ''Studies of Complexity in Fluids'', we have investigated turbulence, flow in granular materials, singularities in evolution of fluid surfaces and selective withdrawal fluid flows. We have studied numerical methods for dealing with complex phenomena, and done simulations on the formation of river networks. We have also studied contact-line deposition that occurs in a drying drop.

  3. Tethering Complexes in the Arabidopsis Endomembrane System

    PubMed Central

    Vukašinović, Nemanja; Žárský, Viktor

    2016-01-01

    Targeting of endomembrane transport containers is of the utmost importance for proper land plant growth and development. Given the immobility of plant cells, localized membrane vesicle secretion and recycling are amongst the main processes guiding proper cell, tissue and whole plant morphogenesis. Cell wall biogenesis and modification are dependent on vectorial membrane traffic, not only during normal development, but also in stress responses and in plant defense against pathogens and/or symbiosis. It is surprising how little we know about these processes in plants, from small GTPase regulation to the tethering complexes that act as their effectors. Tethering factors are single proteins or protein complexes mediating first contact between the target membrane and arriving membrane vesicles. In this review we focus on the tethering complexes of the best-studied plant model—Arabidopsis thaliana. Genome-based predictions indicate the presence of all major tethering complexes in plants that are known from a hypothetical last eukaryotic common ancestor (LECA). The evolutionary multiplication of paralogs of plant tethering complex subunits has produced the massively expanded EXO70 family, indicating a subfunctionalization of the terminal exocytosis machinery in land plants. Interpretation of loss of function (LOF) mutant phenotypes has to consider that related, yet clearly functionally-specific complexes often share some common core subunits. It is therefore impossible to conclude with clarity which version of the complex is responsible for the phenotypic deviations observed. Experimental interest in the analysis of plant tethering complexes is growing and we hope to contribute with this review by attracting even more attention to this fascinating field of plant cell biology. PMID:27243010

  4. Improving the health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heat-waves in England: a case-study approach using temperature-mortality relationships

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masato, Giacomo; Cavany, Sean; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Dacre, Helen; Bone, Angie; Carmicheal, Katie; Murray, Virginia; Danker, Rutger; Neal, Rob; Sarran, Christophe

    2015-04-01

    The health forecasting alert system for cold weather and heatwaves currently in use in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans for England is based on 5 alert levels, with levels 2 and 3 dependent on a forecast or actual single temperature action trigger. Epidemiological evidence indicates that for both heat and cold, the impact on human health is gradual, with worsening impact for more extreme temperatures. The 60% risk of heat and cold forecasts used by the alerts is a rather crude probabilistic measure, which could be substantially improved thanks to the state-of-the-art forecast techniques. In this study a prototype of a new health forecasting alert system is developed, which is aligned to the approach used in the Met Office's (MO) National Severe Weather Warning Service (NSWWS). This is in order to improve information available to responders in the health and social care system by linking temperatures more directly to risks of mortality, and developing a system more coherent with other weather alerts. The prototype is compared to the current system in the Cold Weather and Heatwave plans via a case-study approach to verify its potential advantages and shortcomings. The prototype health forecasting alert system introduces an "impact vs likelihood matrix" for the health impacts of hot and cold temperatures which is similar to those used operationally for other weather hazards as part of the NSWWS. The impact axis of this matrix is based on existing epidemiological evidence, which shows an increasing relative risk of death at extremes of outdoor temperature beyond a threshold which can be identified epidemiologically. The likelihood axis is based on a probability measure associated with the temperature forecast. The new method is tested for two case studies (one during summer 2013, one during winter 2013), and compared to the performance of the current alert system. The prototype shows some clear improvements over the current alert system. It allows for a much greater

  5. Understanding Equilibrium: The Study of Complex Systems. Final Project Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duckworth, Eleanor; And Others

    The Educational Technology Center (ETC) Complex Systems Project was initiated to explore ways of using computers to help students understand systems which have often proven too complex for most high school students to understand. Preliminary work concentrated on the cognitive processes involved in modeling simple systems. This paper describes an…

  6. Complex network synchronization of chaotic systems with delay coupling

    SciTech Connect

    Theesar, S. Jeeva Sathya Ratnavelu, K.

    2014-03-05

    The study of complex networks enables us to understand the collective behavior of the interconnected elements and provides vast real time applications from biology to laser dynamics. In this paper, synchronization of complex network of chaotic systems has been studied. Every identical node in the complex network is assumed to be in Lur’e system form. In particular, delayed coupling has been assumed along with identical sector bounded nonlinear systems which are interconnected over network topology.

  7. Complexity Thinking in PE: Game-Centred Approaches, Games as Complex Adaptive Systems, and Ecological Values

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Storey, Brian; Butler, Joy

    2013-01-01

    Background: This article draws on the literature relating to game-centred approaches (GCAs), such as Teaching Games for Understanding, and dynamical systems views of motor learning to demonstrate a convergence of ideas around games as complex adaptive learning systems. This convergence is organized under the title "complexity thinking"…

  8. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. Brad; Coco, Giovanni; Goldstein, Evan B.

    2014-06-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems does not always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small-scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes do not directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. Similarly, structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized, spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism in which the locations of the features do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break down and reform

  9. Developing resilience to England's future droughts: time for cap and trade?

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Gordon; McDonald, Adrian

    2015-02-01

    Much of England is seriously water stressed and future droughts will present major challenges to the water industry if socially and economically damaging supply restrictions are to be avoided. Demand management is seen as a key mechanism for alleviating water stress, yet there are no truly effective incentives to encourage widespread adoption of the behavioural and technological demand management practices available. Water pricing could promote conservation, but on its own it is an inefficient tool for dealing with short term restriction in water supply. Raising prices over the short term in response to a drought is likely to be ineffectual in lowering demand sufficiently; conversely, maintaining high prices over the long term implies costs to the consumer which are needlessly high most of the time. We propose a system for developing resilience to drought in highly water stressed areas, based on a cap and trade (C&T) model. The system would represent a significant innovation in England's water market. However, international experience shows that C&T is successful in other sectors, and need not be overly complex. Here, we open the debate on how a C&T system might work in England. PMID:25463575

  10. Governing Education through Data: Scotland, England and the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Ozga, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    This paper draws on interview data from national policy makers in England, Scotland and the European Commission to illustrate differences in the referencing of "Europe" in education policy-making in England and Scotland in order to highlight the emergent complexity of post-devolution policy-making in education through a focus on relations and…

  11. Concentrations of hormones, pharmaceuticals and other micropollutants in groundwater affected by septic systems in New England and New York

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Phillips, Patrick J.; Schubert, Christopher E.; Argue, Denise M.; Fisher, Irene J.; Furlong, Edward T.; Foreman, William T.; Gray, James L.; Chalmers, Ann T.

    2015-01-01

    The highest micropollutant concentrations for the NY network were present in the shoreline wells and reflect groundwater that is most affected by septic system discharges. One of the shoreline wells had personal care/domestic use, pharmaceutical, and plasticizer concentrations ranging from 0.4 to 5.7 μg/L. Estradiol equivalency quotient concentrations were also highest in a shoreline well sample (3.1 ng/L). Most micropollutant concentrations increase with increasing specific conductance and total nitrogen concentrations for shoreline well samples. These findings suggest that septic systems serving institutional settings and densely populated areas in coastal settings may be locally important sources of micropollutants to adjacent aquifer and marine systems.

  12. A review of medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System in England and Wales over 6 years (2005–2010)

    PubMed Central

    Cousins, David H; Gerrett, David; Warner, Bruce

    2012-01-01

    A review of all medication incidents reported to the National Reporting and Learning System (NRLS) in England in Wales between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2010 was undertaken. The 526 186 medication incident reports represented 9.68% of all patient safety incidents. Medication incidents from acute general hospitals (394 951) represented 75% of reports. There were relatively smaller numbers of medication incident reports (44 952) from primary care, representing 8.5% of the total. Of 86 821 (16%) medication incidents reporting actual patient harm, 822 (0.9%) resulted in death or severe harm. The incidents involving medicine administration (263 228; 50%) and prescribing (97 097; 18%) were the process steps with the largest number of reports. Omitted and delayed medicine (82 028; 16%) and wrong dose (80 170; 15%) represented the largest error categories. Thirteen medicines or therapeutic groups accounted for 377 (46%) of the incidents with outcomes of death or severe harm. The National Patient Safety Agency (NPSA) has issued guidance to help minimize incidents with many of these medicines. Many recent incidents could have been prevented if the NPSA guidance had been better implemented. It is recommended that healthcare organizations in all sectors establish an effective infrastructure to oversee and promote safe medication practice, including an annual medication safety report. In the future, preventable harms from medication incidents can be further minimized by; the continued use of the NRLS to identify and prioritize important actions to improve medication safety, a central organization continuing to issue medication safety guidance to the service and better methods to ensure that the National Health Service has implemented this guidance. PMID:22188210

  13. Robust Integrated Neurocontroller for Complex Dynamic Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zein-Sabatto, S.; Marpaka, D.; Hwang, W.

    1996-01-01

    The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are: adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as: sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system, (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and 3. Integration of above systems to create a Robust Integrated Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

  14. Robust integrated neurocontroller for complex dynamic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zein-Sabbato, S.; Marpaka, D.; Hwang, W.

    1995-01-01

    The goal of this research effort is to develop an integrated control software environment for the purpose of creating an intelligent neurocontrol system. The system will be capable of estimating states, identifying parameters, diagnosing conditions, planning control strategies, and producing intelligent control actions. The distinct features of such control system are adaptability and on-line learning capability. The proposed system will be flexible to allow structure adaptability to account for changes in the dynamic system such as sensory failures and/or component degradations. The developed system should learn system uncertainties and changes, as they occur, while maintaining minimal control level on the dynamic system. The research activities set to achieve the research objective are summarized by the following general items: (1) Development of a system identifier or diagnostic system; (2) Development of a robust neurocontroller system, and; (3) Integration of above systems to create a robust Integration Control system (RIC-system). Two contrary approaches are investigated in this research: classical (traditional) design approach, and the simultaneous design approach. However, in both approaches neural network is the base for the development of different functions of the system. The two resulting designs will be tested and simulation results will be compared for better possible implementation.

  15. Ofsted's Role in Promoting School Improvement: The Mechanisms of the School Inspection System in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, Karen; Tymms, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Most countries across Europe now have their own Inspectorate as part of a school improvement and accountability system. However, there has been little research on the impact of school inspections or on the aspects of school inspections that maximise the positive effects and minimise the unintended consequences. As a precursor to further research,…

  16. Statistical Features of Complex Systems ---Toward Establishing Sociological Physics---

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, Naoki; Kuninaka, Hiroto; Wakita, Jun-ichi; Matsushita, Mitsugu

    2011-07-01

    Complex systems have recently attracted much attention, both in natural sciences and in sociological sciences. Members constituting a complex system evolve through nonlinear interactions among each other. This means that in a complex system the multiplicative experience or, so to speak, the history of each member produces its present characteristics. If attention is paid to any statistical property in any complex system, the lognormal distribution is the most natural and appropriate among the standard or ``normal'' statistics to overview the whole system. In fact, the lognormality emerges rather conspicuously when we examine, as familiar and typical examples of statistical aspects in complex systems, the nursing-care period for the aged, populations of prefectures and municipalities, and our body height and weight. Many other examples are found in nature and society. On the basis of these observations, we discuss the possibility of sociological physics.

  17. Confluence and convergence: team effectiveness in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Porter-OʼGrady, Tim

    2015-01-01

    Complex adaptive systems require nursing leadership to rethink organizational work and the viability and effectiveness of teams. Much of emergent thinking about complexity and systems and organizations alter the understanding of the nature and function of teamwork and the configuration and leadership of team effort. Reflecting on basic concepts of complexity and their application to team formation, dynamics, and outcomes lays an important foundation for effectively guiding the strategic activity of systems through the focused tactical action of teams. Basic principles of complexity, their impact on teams, and the fundamental elements of team effectiveness are explored. PMID:25474670

  18. Complex, Dynamic Systems: A New Transdisciplinary Theme for Applied Linguistics?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane

    2012-01-01

    In this plenary address, I suggest that Complexity Theory has the potential to contribute a transdisciplinary theme to applied linguistics. Transdisciplinary themes supersede disciplines and spur new kinds of creative activity (Halliday 2001 [1990]). Investigating complex systems requires researchers to pay attention to system dynamics. Since…

  19. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Li, Na

    2013-01-01

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research…

  20. Complex Systems: Science for the 21st Century

    SciTech Connect

    Shank, Charles V.; Awschalom, David; Bawendi, Moungi; Frechet, Jean; Murphy, Donald; Stupp, Sam; Wolynes, Peter

    1999-03-06

    The workshop was designed to help define new scientific directions related to complex systems in order to create new understanding about the nano world and complicated, multicomponent structures. Five emerging themes regarding complexity were covered: Collective Phenomena; Materials by Design; Functional Systems; Nature's Mastery; and New Tools.

  1. Cause and effect in geomorphic systems: Complex-systems perspectives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murray, A. B.; Coco, G.

    2012-04-01

    Applying complex systems perspectives to geomorphic systems leads to the conclusion that cause and effect in landscape systems doesn't always apply in the ways that common sense and traditional assumptions would suggest. Geomorphologists have long thought that events must have causes, and that landscape structures exist where they do for particular reasons. In addition, since the rise of process geomorphology, geomorphologists have often assumed that small scale processes directly cause large-scale, long-term landscape evolution; that for understanding or predicting the large-scale behaviors, the details of the small-scale processes matter; and that large-scale processes don't directly cause behaviors at much smaller scales. However, in self-organized systems, autogenic events can arise from feedbacks internal to the system, without any variation in the forcing to cause the event. And structures within self-organized patterns in the landscape can emerge spontaneously, even though there may not be any pre-existing heterogeneity to cause the localization of the structure. In addition, cause and effect can operate from large scales to small ones as well as the reverse, and interactions that emerge at larger scales can determine the characteristics of the landscape, independent of the details of the small-scale processes. To exemplify these points, we will use research on 'sorted bedforms', which are striking shallow seabed grain-sized sorted patterns on scales ranging from tens of meters to kilometers. The stripes of coarse sand or gravel that are segregated from intervening fine-sand domains were originally ascribed to hypothesized spatially focused currents. However, more recent modeling and field observations point to a self-organization mechanism, in which the location of the features in any snap shot do not correspond with any heterogeneity in the forcing or antecedent conditions. Very recent modeling work shows that regionally the pattern can spontaneously break

  2. Performance and diagnostic evaluation of ozone predictions by the Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality Forecast System during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shaocai; Mathur, Rohit; Kang, Daiwen; Schere, Kenneth; Eder, Brian; Pleim, Jonathan

    2006-10-01

    A real-time air quality forecasting system (Eta-Community Multiscale Air Quality [CMAQ] model suite) has been developed by linking the National Centers for Environmental Estimation Eta model to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) CMAQ model. This work presents results from the application of the Eta-CMAQ modeling system for forecasting ozone (O3) over the Northeastern United States during the 2002 New England Air Quality Study (NEAQS). Spatial and temporal performance of the Eta-CMAQ model for O3 was evaluated by comparison with observations from the EPA Air Quality System (AQS) network. This study also examines the ability of the model to simulate the processes governing the distributions of tropospheric O3 on the basis of the intensive datasets obtained at the four Atmospheric Investigation, Regional Modeling, Analysis, and Estimation (AIRMAP) and Harvard Forest (HF) surface sites. The episode analysis reveals that the model captured the buildup of O3 concentrations over the northeastern domain from August 11 and reproduced the spatial distributions of observed O3 very well for the daytime (8:00 p.m.) of both August 8 and 12 with most of normalized mean bias (NMB) within +/- 20%. The model reproduced 53.3% of the observed hourly O3 within a factor of 1.5 with NMB of 29.7% and normalized mean error of 46.9% at the 342 AQS sites. The comparison of modeled and observed lidar O3 vertical profiles shows that whereas the model reproduced the observed vertical structure, it tended to overestimate at higher altitude. The model reproduced 64-77% of observed NO2 photolysis rate values within a factor of 1.5 at the AIRMAP sites. At the HF site, comparison of modeled and observed O3/nitrogen oxide (NOx) ratios suggests that the site is mainly under strongly NOx-sensitive conditions (>53%). It was found that the modeled lower limits of the O3 production efficiency values (inferred from O3-CO correlation) are close to the observations. PMID:17063868

  3. Size and complexity in model financial systems.

    PubMed

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M

    2012-11-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in "confidence" in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  4. Size and complexity in model financial systems

    PubMed Central

    Arinaminpathy, Nimalan; Kapadia, Sujit; May, Robert M.

    2012-01-01

    The global financial crisis has precipitated an increasing appreciation of the need for a systemic perspective toward financial stability. For example: What role do large banks play in systemic risk? How should capital adequacy standards recognize this role? How is stability shaped by concentration and diversification in the financial system? We explore these questions using a deliberately simplified, dynamic model of a banking system that combines three different channels for direct transmission of contagion from one bank to another: liquidity hoarding, asset price contagion, and the propagation of defaults via counterparty credit risk. Importantly, we also introduce a mechanism for capturing how swings in “confidence” in the system may contribute to instability. Our results highlight that the importance of relatively large, well-connected banks in system stability scales more than proportionately with their size: the impact of their collapse arises not only from their connectivity, but also from their effect on confidence in the system. Imposing tougher capital requirements on larger banks than smaller ones can thus enhance the resilience of the system. Moreover, these effects are more pronounced in more concentrated systems, and continue to apply, even when allowing for potential diversification benefits that may be realized by larger banks. We discuss some tentative implications for policy, as well as conceptual analogies in ecosystem stability and in the control of infectious diseases. PMID:23091020

  5. Dispersion Modeling in Complex Urban Systems

    EPA Science Inventory

    Models are used to represent real systems in an understandable way. They take many forms. A conceptual model explains the way a system works. In environmental studies, for example, a conceptual model may delineate all the factors and parameters for determining how a particle move...

  6. Evaluation in the Design of Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ho, Li-An; Schwen, Thomas M.

    2006-01-01

    We identify literature that argues the process of creating knowledge-based system is often imbalanced. In most knowledge-based systems, development is often technology-driven instead of requirement-driven. Therefore, we argue designers must recognize that evaluation is a critical link in the application of requirement-driven development models…

  7. Complex Communication System and Social Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chang, Won H.

    The basic question under examination is the underlying force that brings forth changes in cultural and social organizations. By employing general system theory and communication systemic analysis, the author concludes that communication, especially human communication, is the main vehicle of change. Human interchange, it is suggested, is constant…

  8. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems.

    PubMed

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N; Rubin, Joshua B; Schlaggar, Bradley L

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems-univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  9. CONFERENCE ANNOUNCEMENT: European Conference on Complex Systems 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems 2009

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    2009-05-01

    The 2009 European Conference on Complex Systems will take place 21-25 September 2009 at the University of Warwick in the UK. Local Organising Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick, Chair), Francois Kepes (Genopole, Programme Chair), Robert MacKay (Warwick), Robin Ball (Warwick), Jeff Johnson (Open University). International Steering Committee Markus Kirkilionis (Warwick; Chair 2008-10), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Jürgen Jost (Leipzig), Scott Kirkpatrick (Jerusalem), David Lane (University of Modena and Reggio Emillia), Andreas Lorincz (Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Denise Pumain (Sorbonne), Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford), Eörs Szathmáry (Collegium Budapest, Hungary), Stephan Thurner (Wien), Paul Verschure (Barcelona), Alessandro Vespignani (Indiana, ISI), Riccardo Zecchina (Torino). Main tracks and Organisers Policy, Planning & Infrastructure: Jeff Johnson (Open University, Chair), Arnaud Banos (Strasbourg) Collective Human Behaviour and Society: Felix Reed-Tsochas (Oxford, Chair), Frances Griffiths (Warwick), Edmund Chattoe-Brown (Leicester) Interacting Populations and Environment: TBA Complexity and Computer Science: András Lörincz (Eötvös Loránd University), Paul Verschure (Zürich) From Molecules to Living Systems: Mark Chaplain (Dundee, Chair), Wolfgang Marwan (Magdeburg) Mathematics and Simulation: Holger Kantz (Dresden, Chair), Fatihcan Atay (Leipzig), Matteo Marsili (Trieste). Deadlines Paper submission: 31 March 2009 with decisions 15 May 2009. Paper submission deadline likely to be extended. See http://www.eccs09.info for more information. Meeting registration: early registration July 2009; last assured chance 1 Sept. Further information For contacts and the most up-to-date information visit http://www.eccs09.info.

  10. Nervous System and Intracranial Tumour Incidence by Ethnicity in England, 2001–2007: A Descriptive Epidemiological Study

    PubMed Central

    Maile, Edward J.; Barnes, Isobel; Finlayson, Alexander E.; Sayeed, Shameq; Ali, Raghib

    2016-01-01

    Background There is substantial variation in nervous system and intracranial tumour incidence worldwide. UK incidence data have limited utility because they group these diverse tumours together and do not provide data for individual ethnic groups within Blacks and South Asians. Our objective was to determine the incidence of individual tumour types for seven individual ethnic groups. Methods We used data from the National Cancer Intelligence Network on tumour site, age, sex and deprivation to identify 42,207 tumour cases. Self-reported ethnicity was obtained from the Hospital Episode Statistics database. We used mid-year population estimates from the Office for National Statistics. We analysed tumours by site using Poisson regression to estimate incidence rate ratios comparing non-White ethnicities to Whites after adjustment for sex, age and deprivation. Results Our study showed differences in tumour incidence by ethnicity for gliomas, meningiomas, pituitary tumours and cranial and paraspinal nerve tumours. Relative to Whites; South Asians, Blacks and Chinese have a lower incidence of gliomas (p<0.01), with respective incidence rate ratios of 0.68 (confidence interval: 0.60–0.77), 0.62 (0.52–0.73) and 0.58 (0.41–0.83). Blacks have a higher incidence of meningioma (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 1.29 (1.05–1.59) and there is heterogeneity in meningioma incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Blacks have a higher incidence of pituitary tumours relative to Whites (p<0.01) with an incidence rate ratio of 2.95 (2.37–3.67). There is heterogeneity in pituitary tumour incidence between individual South Asian ethnicities. Conclusions We present incidence data of individual tumour types for seven ethnic groups. Current understanding of the aetiology of these tumours cannot explain our results. These findings suggest avenues for further work. PMID:27135830

  11. Forewarning of Failure in Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Abercrombie, Robert K; Hively, Lee M; Prowell, Stacy J; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

    2011-01-01

    As the critical infrastructures of the United States have become more and more dependent on public and private networks, the potential for widespread national impact resulting from disruption or failure of these networks has also increased. Securing the nation s critical infrastructures requires protecting not only their physical systems but, just as important, the cyber portions of the systems on which they rely. A failure is inclusive of random events, design flaws, and instabilities caused by cyber (and/or physical) attack. One such domain is failure in critical equipment. A second is aging bridges. We discuss the workings of such a system in the context of the necessary sensors, command and control and data collection as well as the cyber security efforts that would support this system. Their application and the implications of this computing architecture are also discussed, with respect to our nation s aging infrastructure.

  12. Software Analyzes Complex Systems in Real Time

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2008-01-01

    Expert system software programs, also known as knowledge-based systems, are computer programs that emulate the knowledge and analytical skills of one or more human experts, related to a specific subject. SHINE (Spacecraft Health Inference Engine) is one such program, a software inference engine (expert system) designed by NASA for the purpose of monitoring, analyzing, and diagnosing both real-time and non-real-time systems. It was developed to meet many of the Agency s demanding and rigorous artificial intelligence goals for current and future needs. NASA developed the sophisticated and reusable software based on the experience and requirements of its Jet Propulsion Laboratory s (JPL) Artificial Intelligence Research Group in developing expert systems for space flight operations specifically, the diagnosis of spacecraft health. It was designed to be efficient enough to operate in demanding real time and in limited hardware environments, and to be utilized by non-expert systems applications written in conventional programming languages. The technology is currently used in several ongoing NASA applications, including the Mars Exploration Rovers and the Spacecraft Health Automatic Reasoning Pilot (SHARP) program for the diagnosis of telecommunication anomalies during the Neptune Voyager Encounter. It is also finding applications outside of the Space Agency.

  13. Design ATE systems for complex assemblies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Napier, R. S.; Flammer, G. H.; Moser, S. A.

    1983-06-01

    The use of ATE systems in radio specification testing can reduce the test time by approximately 90 to 95 percent. What is more, the test station does not require a highly trained operator. Since the system controller has full power over all the measurements, human errors are not introduced into the readings. The controller is immune to any need to increase output by allowing marginal units to pass through the system. In addition, the software compensates for predictable, repeatable system errors, for example, cabling losses, which are an inherent part of the test setup. With no variation in test procedures from unit to unit, there is a constant repeatability factor. Preparing the software, however, usually entails considerable expense. It is pointed out that many of the problems associated with ATE system software can be avoided with the use of a software-intensive, or computer-intensive, system organization. Its goal is to minimize the user's need for software development, thereby saving time and money.

  14. Measuring system complexity to support development cost estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malone, P.; Wolfarth, L.

    Systems and System-of-Systems (SoS) are being used more frequently either as a design element of stand alone systems or architectural frameworks. Consequently, a programmatic need has arisen to understand and measure systems complexity in order to estimate more accurately development plans and life-cycle costs. In a prior paper, we introduced the System Readiness Level (SRL) concept as a composite function of both Technology Readiness Levels (TRLs) and Integration Readiness Levels (IRLs) and touched on system complexity. While the SRL approach provides a repeatable, process-driven method to assess the maturity of a system or SoS, it does not capture all aspects of system complexity. In this paper we assess the concept of cyclomatic complexity as a system complexity metric and consider its utility as an approach for estimating the life-cycle costs and cost growth of complex systems. We hypothesize that the greater the number of technologies and integration tasks, the more complex the system and the higher its cost to develop and maintain. We base our analysis on historical data from DoD programs that have experienced significant cost growth, including some that have been cancelled due to unsustainable cost (and schedule) growth. We begin by describing the original implementation of the cyclomatic method, which was developed to estimate the effort to maintain system software. We then describe how the method can be generalized and applied to systems. Next, we show how to estimate the cyclomatic number (CN) and show the statistical significance between a system's CN metric and its cost. We illustrate the method with an example. Last, we discuss opportunities for future research.

  15. What is the utility of using syndromic surveillance systems during large subnational infectious gastrointestinal disease outbreaks? An observational study using case studies from the past 5 years in England.

    PubMed

    Todkill, D; Elliot, A J; Morbey, R; Harris, J; Hawker, J; Edeghere, O; Smith, G E

    2016-08-01

    Syndromic surveillance systems in England have demonstrated utility in the early identification of seasonal gastrointestinal illness (GI) tracking its spatio-temporal distribution and enabling early public health action. There would be additional public health utility if syndromic surveillance systems could detect or track subnational infectious disease outbreaks. To investigate using syndromic surveillance for this purpose we retrospectively identified eight large GI outbreaks between 2009 and 2014 (four randomly and four purposively sampled). We then examined syndromic surveillance information prospectively collected by the Real-time Syndromic Surveillance team within Public Health England for evidence of possible outbreak-related changes. None of the outbreaks were identified contemporaneously and no alerts were made to relevant public health teams. Retrospectively, two of the outbreaks - which happened at similar times and in proximal geographical locations - demonstrated changes in the local trends of relevant syndromic indicators and exhibited a clustering of statistical alarms, but did not warrant alerting local health protection teams. Our suite of syndromic surveillance systems may be more suited to their original purposes than as means of detecting or monitoring localized, subnational GI outbreaks. This should, however, be considered in the context of this study's limitations; further prospective work is needed to fully explore the use of syndromic surveillance for this purpose. Provided geographical coverage is sufficient, syndromic surveillance systems could be able to provide reassurance of no or minor excess healthcare systems usage during localized GI incidents. PMID:27033409

  16. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS. PMID:26656389

  17. Complex systems as lenses on learning and teaching

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hurford, Andrew C.

    From metaphors to mathematized models, the complexity sciences are changing the ways disciplines view their worlds, and ideas borrowed from complexity are increasingly being used to structure conversations and guide research on teaching and learning. The purpose of this corpus of research is to further those conversations and to extend complex systems ideas, theories, and modeling to curricula and to research on learning and teaching. A review of the literatures of learning and of complexity science and a discussion of the intersections between those disciplines are provided. The work reported represents an evolving model of learning qua complex system and that evolution is the result of iterative cycles of design research. One of the signatures of complex systems is the presence of scale invariance and this line of research furnishes empirical evidence of scale invariant behaviors in the activity of learners engaged in participatory simulations. The offered discussion of possible causes for these behaviors and chaotic phase transitions in human learning favors real-time optimization of decision-making as the means for producing such behaviors. Beyond theoretical development and modeling, this work includes the development of teaching activities intended to introduce pre-service mathematics and science teachers to complex systems. While some of the learning goals for this activity focused on the introduction of complex systems as a content area, we also used complex systems to frame perspectives on learning. Results of scoring rubrics and interview responses from students illustrate attributes of the proposed model of complex systems learning and also how these pre-service teachers made sense of the ideas. Correlations between established theories of learning and a complex adaptive systems model of learning are established and made explicit, and a means for using complex systems ideas for designing instruction is offered. It is a fundamental assumption of this

  18. Changing Landscapes in Safeguarding Babies and Young Children in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lumsden, Eunice

    2014-01-01

    The importance of safeguarding children from violence is internationally recognised. However, detecting, intervening and protecting children from abuse both within the family and in institutions is complex. This paper specifically focuses on safeguarding in England and how workforce reform in the early years offers the opportunity to forge new…

  19. Early Years Educators in Finland and England: Issues of Professionality.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moriarty, Viv

    2000-01-01

    Semi-structured interviews were conducted to examine early years educators' views of their professional role in England and Finland, related to the role of parents during early years education. Findings suggested that Finnish educators had adopted understanding of professionalism based more closely on notions of complexity and democracy than…

  20. The Social Organisation of Education Research in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawn, Martin; Furlong, John

    2007-01-01

    The field of education research has grown enormously in England over the last 25 years--in size, complexity, forms of production and purpose. It has been shaped by governmental, market and production changes, and it appears to be moving outside the university sector as well. The British Educational Research Association is trying to map the field…

  1. Multiscale Computational Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Walpole, Joseph; Papin, Jason A.; Peirce, Shayn M.

    2014-01-01

    Integration of data across spatial, temporal, and functional scales is a primary focus of biomedical engineering efforts. The advent of powerful computing platforms, coupled with quantitative data from high-throughput experimental platforms, has allowed multiscale modeling to expand as a means to more comprehensively investigate biological phenomena in experimentally relevant ways. This review aims to highlight recently published multiscale models of biological systems while using their successes to propose the best practices for future model development. We demonstrate that coupling continuous and discrete systems best captures biological information across spatial scales by selecting modeling techniques that are suited to the task. Further, we suggest how to best leverage these multiscale models to gain insight into biological systems using quantitative, biomedical engineering methods to analyze data in non-intuitive ways. These topics are discussed with a focus on the future of the field, the current challenges encountered, and opportunities yet to be realized. PMID:23642247

  2. Multiphoton coherent control in complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Goswami, Debabrata

    2005-01-01

    Control of multiphoton transitions is demonstrated for a multilevel system by generalizing the instantaneous phase of any chirped pulse as individual terms of a Taylor series expansion. In the case of a simple two-level system, all odd terms in the series lead to population inversion while the even terms lead to self-induced transparency. The results hold for multiphoton transitions that do not have any lower-order photon resonance or any intermediate virtual state dynamics within the laser pulse width. PMID:17396157

  3. Tailoring Enterprise Systems Engineering Policy for Project Scale and Complexity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cox, Renee I.; Thomas, L. Dale

    2014-01-01

    Space systems are characterized by varying degrees of scale and complexity. Accordingly, cost-effective implementation of systems engineering also varies depending on scale and complexity. Recognizing that systems engineering and integration happen everywhere and at all levels of a given system and that the life cycle is an integrated process necessary to mature a design, the National Aeronautic and Space Administration's (NASA's) Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) has developed a suite of customized implementation approaches based on project scale and complexity. While it may be argued that a top-level system engineering process is common to and indeed desirable across an enterprise for all space systems, implementation of that top-level process and the associated products developed as a result differ from system to system. The implementation approaches used for developing a scientific instrument necessarily differ from those used for a space station. .

  4. Second Language Learning of Complex Inflectional Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kempe, Vera; Brooks, Patricia J.

    2008-01-01

    This study explored learning and generalization of parts of the Russian case-marking paradigm, an inflecting-fusional system in which affixes simultaneously mark several grammatical features (case, gender, number, animacy). In Experiment 1, adult English speakers (N = 43) were exposed to nouns with transparent gender marking in the nominative case…

  5. Ice Storage System for School Complex.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery, Ross D.

    1998-01-01

    Describes a project at the Manatee Education Center in Naples, Florida, which won an ASHRAE award. Project involved the implementation of ice-storage technology in 19 schools. Compares the performance of ice-storage systems with traditional chiller designs in two other schools. Tables illustrate costs for the campuses. Addresses the maintenance…

  6. The Fallacy of Univariate Solutions to Complex Systems Problems

    PubMed Central

    Lessov-Schlaggar, Christina N.; Rubin, Joshua B.; Schlaggar, Bradley L.

    2016-01-01

    Complex biological systems, by definition, are composed of multiple components that interact non-linearly. The human brain constitutes, arguably, the most complex biological system known. Yet most investigation of the brain and its function is carried out using assumptions appropriate for simple systems—univariate design and linear statistical approaches. This heuristic must change before we can hope to discover and test interventions to improve the lives of individuals with complex disorders of brain development and function. Indeed, a movement away from simplistic models of biological systems will benefit essentially all domains of biology and medicine. The present brief essay lays the foundation for this argument. PMID:27375425

  7. Biology and Nonequilibrium: Remarks on a Paper by J.L. England

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ruelle, D.

    2015-07-01

    This note analyzes the physical basis of J.R. England's paper "Statistical physics of self-replication." [J. Chem. Phys. 139, 121923 (2013)]. We follow England's use of time-reversal symmetry but replace stochastic by deterministic dynamics, and introduce a definition of metastable states based on equilibrium statistical mechanics. We rederive England's detailed balance relation and obtain another similar relation which appears more natural and remains valid for quantum systems. The detailed balance relations are based on serious physical ideas, and either of them can be used for England's biological discussion. This biological discussion does of course deserve further scrutiny. This article is supplemented with comments by P. Gaspard.

  8. Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Hall, Laura E.

    1994-01-01

    DeMAID (A Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problem. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Available in two machine versions: Macintosh and Sun.

  9. Integrated Modeling of Complex Optomechanical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andersen, Torben; Enmark, Anita

    2011-09-01

    Mathematical modeling and performance simulation are playing an increasing role in large, high-technology projects. There are two reasons; first, projects are now larger than they were before, and the high cost calls for detailed performance prediction before construction. Second, in particular for space-related designs, it is often difficult to test systems under realistic conditions beforehand, and mathematical modeling is then needed to verify in advance that a system will work as planned. Computers have become much more powerful, permitting calculations that were not possible before. At the same time mathematical tools have been further developed and found acceptance in the community. Particular progress has been made in the fields of structural mechanics, optics and control engineering, where new methods have gained importance over the last few decades. Also, methods for combining optical, structural and control system models into global models have found widespread use. Such combined models are usually called integrated models and were the subject of this symposium. The objective was to bring together people working in the fields of groundbased optical telescopes, ground-based radio telescopes, and space telescopes. We succeeded in doing so and had 39 interesting presentations and many fruitful discussions during coffee and lunch breaks and social arrangements. We are grateful that so many top ranked specialists found their way to Kiruna and we believe that these proceedings will prove valuable during much future work.

  10. Critical care nursing: Embedded complex systems.

    PubMed

    Trinier, Ruth; Liske, Lori; Nenadovic, Vera

    2016-01-01

    Variability in parameters such as heart rate, respiratory rate and blood pressure defines healthy physiology and the ability of the person to adequately respond to stressors. Critically ill patients have lost this variability and require highly specialized nursing care to support life and monitor changes in condition. The critical care environment is a dynamic system through which information flows. The critical care unit is typically designed as a tree structure with generally one attending physician and multiple nurses and allied health care professionals. Information flow through the system allows for identification of deteriorating patient status and timely interventionfor rescue from further deleterious effects. Nurses provide the majority of direct patient care in the critical care setting in 2:1, 1:1 or 1:2 nurse-to-patient ratios. The bedside nurse-critically ill patient relationship represents the primary, real-time feedback loop of information exchange, monitoring and treatment. Variables that enhance information flow through this loop and support timely nursing intervention can improve patient outcomes, while barriers can lead to errors and adverse events. Examining patient information flow in the critical care environment from a dynamic systems perspective provides insights into how nurses deliver effective patient care and prevent adverse events. PMID:27047997

  11. Leading Systemic Improvement: Confronting Complexity in Turnaround Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Peurach, Donald J.; Marx, Gary E.

    2010-01-01

    This case is developed for use in a policy-centered course on systemic improvement in underperforming districts and schools. The narrative details the complexity that arose in the context of one such reform initiative, a framework for analyzing that complexity, and a set of leadership decisions that follow. Course instructors can use the case to:…

  12. Understanding Learner Agency as a Complex Dynamic System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mercer, Sarah

    2011-01-01

    This paper attempts to contribute to a fuller understanding of the nature of language learner agency by considering it as a complex dynamic system. The purpose of the study was to explore detailed situated data to examine to what extent it is feasible to view learner agency through the lens of complexity theory. Data were generated through a…

  13. Vertical leadership in highly complex and unpredictable health systems.

    PubMed

    Till, Alex; Dutta, Nina; McKimm, Judy

    2016-08-01

    This article explores how the concept of vertical leadership development might help health organizations cope with and thrive within highly complex and unpredictable health systems, looking at concepts of VUCA (volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity) and RUPT (rapid, unpredictable, paradoxical and tangled). PMID:27487058

  14. Classrooms as Complex Adaptive Systems: A Relational Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Burns, Anne; Knox, John S.

    2011-01-01

    In this article, we describe and model the language classroom as a complex adaptive system (see Logan & Schumann, 2005). We argue that linear, categorical descriptions of classroom processes and interactions do not sufficiently explain the complex nature of classrooms, and cannot account for how classroom change occurs (or does not occur), over…

  15. Research Methodology on Language Development from a Complex Systems Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larsen-Freeman, Diane; Cameron, Lynne

    2008-01-01

    Changes to research methodology motivated by the adoption of a complexity theory perspective on language development are considered. The dynamic, nonlinear, and open nature of complex systems, together with their tendency toward self-organization and interaction across levels and timescales, requires changes in traditional views of the functions…

  16. Complex Synchronization Phenomena in Ecological Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, Lewi; Olinky, Ronen; Blasius, Bernd; Huppert, Amit; Cazelles, Bernard

    2002-07-01

    Ecological and biological systems provide us with many striking examples of synchronization phenomena. Here we discuss a number of intriguing cases and attempt to explain them taking advantage of a modelling framework. One main focus will concern synchronized ecological end epidemiological cycles which have Uniform Phase growth associated with their regular recurrence, and Chaotic Amplitudes - a feature we term UPCA. Examples come from different areas and include decadal cycles of small mammals, recurrent viral epidemics such as childhood infections (eg., measles), and seasonally driven phytoplankton blooms observed in lakes and the oceans. A more detailed theoretical analysis of seasonally synchronized chaotic population cycles is presented.

  17. Program Helps Decompose Complex Design Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rogers, James L., Jr.; Hall, Laura E.

    1995-01-01

    DeMAID (Design Manager's Aid for Intelligent Decomposition) computer program is knowledge-based software system for ordering sequence of modules and identifying possible multilevel structure for design problems such as large platforms in outer space. Groups modular subsystems on basis of interactions among them. Saves considerable amount of money and time in total design process, particularly in new design problem in which order of modules has not been defined. Originally written for design problems, also applicable to problems containing modules (processes) that take inputs and generate outputs. Available in three machine versions: Macintosh written in Symantec's Think C 3.01, Sun, and SGI IRIS in C language.

  18. Multigroup Complex Geometry Neutron Diffusion Code System.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    2002-12-18

    Version 01 SNAP-3D is based on SNAP2 and is a one- two- or three-dimensional multigroup diffusion code system. It is primarily intended for neutron diffusion calculations, but it can also carry out gamma-ray calculations if the diffusion approximation is accurate enough. It is suitable for fast and thermal reactor core calculations and for shield calculations. SNAP-3D can solve the multi-group neutron diffusion equations using finite difference methods in (x,y,z), (r,theta,z), (TRI,z), (HEX,z) or (spherical) coordinates.more » The one-dimensional slab and cylindrical geometries and the two-dimensional (x,y), (r,z), (r,theta), (HEX) and (TRI) are all treated as simple special cases of three-dimensional geometries. Numerous reflective and periodic symmetry options are available and may be used to reduce the number of mesh points necessary to represent the system. Extrapolation lengths can be specified at internal and external boundaries. The problem classes are: 1) eigenvalue search for critical k-effective, 2) eigenvalue search for critical buckling, 3) eigenvalue search for critical time-constant, 4) fixed source problems in which the sources are functions of regions, 5) fixed source problems in which the sources are provided, on disc, for every mesh point and group.« less

  19. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000.

    PubMed

    Pall, Pardeep; Aina, Tolu; Stone, Dáithí A; Stott, Peter A; Nozawa, Toru; Hilberts, Arno G J; Lohmann, Dag; Allen, Myles R

    2011-02-17

    Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion (refs 5, 6). Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%. PMID:21331040

  20. Traditional Knowledge of Western Herbal Medicine and Complex Systems Science

    PubMed Central

    Niemeyer, Kathryn; Bell, Iris R.; Koithan, Mary

    2013-01-01

    Traditional knowledge of Western herbal medicine (WHM) supports experiential approaches to healing that have evolved over time. This is evident in the use of polyherb formulations comprised of crude plant parts, individually tailored to treat the cause of dysfunction and imbalance by addressing the whole person holistically. The challenge for WHM is to integrate science with traditional knowledge that is a foundation of the practice of WHM. The purpose of this paper is to provide a plausible theoretical hypothesis by applying complex systems science to WHM, illustrating how medicinal plants are complex, adaptive, environmentally interactive systems exhibiting synergy and nonlinear healing causality. This paper explores the conceptual congruence between medicinal plants and humans as complex systems coherently coupled through recurrent interaction. Complex systems science provides the theoretical tenets that explain traditional knowledge of medicinal plants while supporting clinical practice and expanding research and documentation of WHM. PMID:24058898

  1. AN ADVANCED SYSTEM FOR POLLUTION PREVENTION IN CHEMICAL COMPLEXES

    EPA Science Inventory

    One important accomplishment is that the system will give process engineers interactively and simultaneously use of programs for total cost analysis, life cycle assessment and sustainability metrics to provide direction for the optimal chemical complex analysis pro...

  2. A simple framework for complex system improvement.

    PubMed

    Kraft, Sally; Carayon, Pascale; Weiss, Jennifer; Pandhi, Nancy

    2015-05-01

    The need to rapidly improve health care value is unquestioned, but the means to accomplish this task is unknown. Improving performance at the level of the health care organization frequently involves multiple interventions, which must be coordinated and sequenced to fit the specific context. Those responsible for achieving large-scale improvements are challenged by the lack of a framework to describe and organize improvement strategies. Drawing from the fields of health services, industrial engineering, and organizational behavior, a simple framework was developed and has been used to guide and evaluate improvement initiatives at an academic health center. The authors anticipate that this framework will be helpful for health system leaders responsible for improving health care quality. PMID:24723664

  3. Correcting Aberrations in Complex Magnet Systems for Muon Cooling Channels

    SciTech Connect

    J.A. Maloney, B. Erdelyi, A. Afanaciev, R.P. Johnson, Y.S. Derbenev, V.S. Morozov

    2011-03-01

    Designing and simulating complex magnet systems needed for cooling channels in both neutrino factories and muon colliders requires innovative techniques to correct for both chromatic and spherical aberrations. Optimizing complex systems, such as helical magnets for example, is also difficult but essential. By using COSY INFINITY, a differential algebra based code, the transfer and aberration maps can be examined to discover what critical terms have the greatest influence on these aberrations.

  4. Anticipated synchronization in coupled complex Ginzburg-Landau systems.

    PubMed

    Ciszak, Marzena; Mayol, Catalina; Mirasso, Claudio R; Toral, Raul

    2015-09-01

    We study the occurrence of anticipated synchronization in two complex Ginzburg-Landau systems coupled in a master-slave configuration. Master and slave systems are ruled by the same autonomous function, but the slave system receives the injection from the master and is subject to a negative delayed self-feedback loop. We give evidence that the magnitude of the largest anticipation time, obtained for complex-valued coupling constants, depends on the dynamical regime where the system operates (defect turbulence, phase turbulence, or bichaos) and scales with the linear autocorrelation time of the system. We also provide analytical conditions for the stability of the anticipated synchronization manifold that are in qualitative agreement with those obtained numerically. Finally, we report on the existence of anticipated synchronization in coupled two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau systems. PMID:26465544

  5. Anticipated synchronization in coupled complex Ginzburg-Landau systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciszak, Marzena; Mayol, Catalina; Mirasso, Claudio R.; Toral, Raul

    2015-09-01

    We study the occurrence of anticipated synchronization in two complex Ginzburg-Landau systems coupled in a master-slave configuration. Master and slave systems are ruled by the same autonomous function, but the slave system receives the injection from the master and is subject to a negative delayed self-feedback loop. We give evidence that the magnitude of the largest anticipation time, obtained for complex-valued coupling constants, depends on the dynamical regime where the system operates (defect turbulence, phase turbulence, or bichaos) and scales with the linear autocorrelation time of the system. We also provide analytical conditions for the stability of the anticipated synchronization manifold that are in qualitative agreement with those obtained numerically. Finally, we report on the existence of anticipated synchronization in coupled two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau systems.

  6. Hydrodynamic complexity in the Earth system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peltier, W. Richard

    Geophysical fluid Dynamics (GFD), as a recognizably distinct subdiscipline in the geophysical sciences, was probably born in the continuing series of Summer Schools in GFD that began at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution over 20 years ago. The goal of these schools was to bring together relatively small groups of gifted graduate students with professional academics working in the areas of astrophysics, atmospheric science, geophysics, oceanography and other areas in which models based upon the concepts of classical hydrodynamics were coming to be seen as central to the understanding of a wide range of dynamical processes. The point of this effort was, and remains, to emphasize the commonality of physical process that underlies the behaviour of such apparently unrelated systems and thereby to stimulate the growth of a new group of theoretical geophysicists whose members are as comfortable in analyzing the behaviour of the infinite Reynold number flows that dominate the general circulation of the planetary atmosphere as they are in developing models of the zero Reynolds number flow associated with convection in the earth's mantle. The goal was, and remains, for example, to educate astrophysicists to understand that the double diffusive processes at work in magnetoconvection in the earth's core (say) have many similarities with the processes that operate in the oceanographically important heat-salt system; and similarly to educate oceanographers to understand that the process of Gulf Stream ring formation has everything to do with the process of occlusion of a frontal baroclinic wave in the atmosphere, etc. The summary of the present state and future promise of this young science, by Raymond Hyde, in the preceding paper of this volume, has provided an interesting view of some of the areas of present research that are liable to be most productive of new insights in the immediate future. By way of this invited response to what Dr. Hyde has written I thought I

  7. Recording information on protein complexes in an information management system

    PubMed Central

    Savitsky, Marc; Diprose, Jonathan M.; Morris, Chris; Griffiths, Susanne L.; Daniel, Edward; Lin, Bill; Daenke, Susan; Bishop, Benjamin; Siebold, Christian; Wilson, Keith S.; Blake, Richard; Stuart, David I.; Esnouf, Robert M.

    2011-01-01

    The Protein Information Management System (PiMS) is a laboratory information management system (LIMS) designed for use with the production of proteins in a research environment. The software is distributed under the CCP4 licence, and so is available free of charge to academic laboratories. Like most LIMS, the underlying PiMS data model originally had no support for protein–protein complexes. To support the SPINE2-Complexes project the developers have extended PiMS to meet these requirements. The modifications to PiMS, described here, include data model changes, additional protocols, some user interface changes and functionality to detect when an experiment may have formed a complex. Example data are shown for the production of a crystal of a protein complex. Integration with SPINE2-Complexes Target Tracker application is also described. PMID:21605682

  8. An ensemble approach to the evolution of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Arpağ, Göker; Erzan, Ayşe

    2014-04-01

    Adaptive systems frequently incorporate complex structures which can arise spontaneously and which may be nonadaptive in the evolutionary sense. We give examples from phase transition and fractal growth to develop the themes of cooperative phenomena and pattern formation. We discuss RNA interference and transcriptional gene regulation networks, where a major part of the topological properties can be accounted for by mere combinatorics. A discussion of ensemble approaches to biological systems and measures of complexity is presented, and a connection is established between complexity and fitness. PMID:24736159

  9. Approximate entropy as a measure of system complexity.

    PubMed Central

    Pincus, S M

    1991-01-01

    Techniques to determine changing system complexity from data are evaluated. Convergence of a frequently used correlation dimension algorithm to a finite value does not necessarily imply an underlying deterministic model or chaos. Analysis of a recently developed family of formulas and statistics, approximate entropy (ApEn), suggests that ApEn can classify complex systems, given at least 1000 data values in diverse settings that include both deterministic chaotic and stochastic processes. The capability to discern changing complexity from such a relatively small amount of data holds promise for applications of ApEn in a variety of contexts. PMID:11607165

  10. Green photonics realized by optical complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanri, Hiroto; Sasaki, Wakao

    2013-12-01

    We have experimentally demonstrated a new smart grid model which can control DC electric power flow autonomously among individual homes, by using an optical self-organized node with optical non-linear characteristics, and these homes are assumed to be installed by distributed power supplies, and electric power storage devices, and also supposed to be supplied partly by the commercial electric power grid utilities. An electric power network is composed of nodes and devises called Power Gate Unit (PGU). The nodes have optical nonlinearity for self-organizing informations about surplus or shortage of electric power as to individual homes. The PGU is a distributing unit of actual electric power based on above informations of power surplus or shortage at each home. The PGU at each home is electrically connected to both the onsite power supplies and household load such as a solar panel, a DC motor, and a storage battery as well as the commercial electric power grid utilities. In this work, we composed our experimental self-organized DC power grid with above components and supposed the supplied maximum power from the commercial electric power grid utilities to be limited to 5V-0.5A. In this network, information about surplus or shortage of electric power will propagate through the nodes. In the experiments, surplus electric current 0.4A at a particular node was distributed toward a PGU of another node suffering from shortage of electric current. We also confirmed in the experiments and simulations that even when signal propagation path was disconnected accidentally the network could recover an optimized path. The present smart grid system we have attained may be applied by optical fiber link in the near future because our essential components controlling PGU, i.e. the nodes are electro-optical hybrid which are easily applicable to fiber optical link so as to control electric power transmission line.

  11. Leadership and transitions: maintaining the science in complexity and complex systems.

    PubMed

    Sturmberg, Joachim P; Martin, Carmel M

    2012-02-01

    It is the 'moral compass', however subtle, that underpins leadership. Leadership, meaning showing the way, demands as much conviction as gentile diplomacy in the discourse with supporters and detractors. In particular, leadership defends the goal by safeguarding its principles from its detractors. The authors writing in the Forum on Complexity in Medicine and Healthcare since its inception are leaders in an intellectual transition to complex systems thinking in medicine and health. PMID:22221419

  12. Method and system for producing complex-shape objects

    DOEpatents

    Jeantette, Francisco P.; Keicher, David M.; Romero, Joseph A.; Schanwald, Lee P.

    2000-01-01

    A method and system are provided for producing complex, three-dimensional, net shape objects from a variety of powdered materials. The system includes unique components to ensure a uniform and continuous flow of powdered materials as well as to focus and locate the flow of powdered materials with respect to a laser beam which results in the melting of the powdered material. The system also includes a controller so that the flow of molten powdered materials can map out and form complex, three-dimensional, net-shape objects by layering the molten powdered material. Advantageously, such complex, three-dimensional net-shape objects can be produced having material densities varying from 90% of theoretical to fully dense, as well as a variety of controlled physical properties. Additionally, such complex, three-dimensional objects can be produced from two or more different materials so that the composition of the object can be transitioned from one material to another.

  13. Symmetric and Asymmetric Tendencies in Stable Complex Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tan, James P. L.

    2016-01-01

    A commonly used approach to study stability in a complex system is by analyzing the Jacobian matrix at an equilibrium point of a dynamical system. The equilibrium point is stable if all eigenvalues have negative real parts. Here, by obtaining eigenvalue bounds of the Jacobian, we show that stable complex systems will favor mutualistic and competitive relationships that are asymmetrical (non-reciprocative) and trophic relationships that are symmetrical (reciprocative). Additionally, we define a measure called the interdependence diversity that quantifies how distributed the dependencies are between the dynamical variables in the system. We find that increasing interdependence diversity has a destabilizing effect on the equilibrium point, and the effect is greater for trophic relationships than for mutualistic and competitive relationships. These predictions are consistent with empirical observations in ecology. More importantly, our findings suggest stabilization algorithms that can apply very generally to a variety of complex systems. PMID:27545722

  14. Active control technique of fractional-order chaotic complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.; Ahmed, Mansour E.; Abed-Elhameed, Tarek M.

    2016-06-01

    Several kinds of synchronization of fractional-order chaotic complex systems are challenging research topics of current interest since they appear in many applications in applied sciences. Our main goal in this paper is to introduce the definition of modified projective combination-combination synchronization (MPCCS) of some fractional-order chaotic complex systems. We show that our systems are chaotic by calculating their Lyapunov exponents. The fractional Lyapunov dimension of the chaotic solutions of these systems is computed. A scheme is introduced to calculate MPCCS of four different (or identical) chaotic complex systems using the active control technique. Special cases of this type, which are projective and anti C-C synchronization, are discussed. Some figures are plotted to show that MPCCS is achieved and its errors approach zero.

  15. Universality of flux-fluctuation law in complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Zhao; Huang, Zi-Gang; Huang, Liang; Lai, Ying-Cheng; Yang, Lei; Xue, De-Sheng

    2013-01-01

    Recent work has revealed a law governing flux fluctuation and the average flux in complex dynamical systems. We establish the universality of this flux-fluctuation law through the following steps: (i) We derive the law in a more general setting, showing that it depends on a single parameter characterizing the external driving; (ii) we conduct extensive numerical computations using distinct external driving, different network topologies, and multiple traffic routing strategies; and (iii) we analyze data from an actual vehicle traffic system in a major city in China to lend more credence to the universality of the flux-fluctuation law. Additional factors considered include flux fluctuation on links, window size effect, and hidden topological structures such as nodal degree correlation. Besides its fundamental importance in complex systems, the flux-fluctuation law can be used to infer certain intrinsic property of the system for potential applications such as control of complex systems for improved performance.

  16. Application of Complex Systems Research To Efforts of International Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brunner, Hans-Peter

    Fundamental research on complex systems has shown relevance to efforts of international development. This paper canvasses some practitioner friendly approaches to international development. Development is about interventions in a highly complex system, the society. Complex systems research tells us that development interventions should not be overly planned, rather the fundamental uncertainty of a changing social system requires a diversity of interventions, and rapid learning from development success and failure. Developing economies are functioning at a low level of effectiveness and resource use. Complex systems are change resistant, and intervention requires understanding the autocatalytic nature of a process of change. International development is about the stimulation of a society's innate autocatalytic / self-organizing processes through interventions that stimulate enough to overcome change resistance, but which do not overwhelm the system. Since the size of financial interventions may in some cases be a substantial fraction of the existing economic activity, disruption is a likely outcome. Crucially, one must avoid having the socio-economic activity organized around the intervention itself, since then an undesirable dependency of the economy on the intervention arises. Stimulation of the innate modes of activity results in the development of socio-economic organization around energy, material and financial flows. The primary generator of effectiveness is an appropriate network structure of interactions and relationships. This paper summarizes traditional development efforts and their outcomes as well as a plausible description of the process of complex systems motivated interventions. Examples are given of recent approaches which aim to appropriately stimulate international development.

  17. THE GENETIC BASIS OF A COMPLEX FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM

    PubMed Central

    Parnell, Nicholas F; Hulsey, C Darrin; Streelman, J Todd

    2012-01-01

    The relationship between form and function can have profound effects on evolutionary dynamics and such effects may differ for simple versus complex systems. In particular, functions produced by multiple structural configurations (many-to-one mapping, MTOM) may dampen constituent trade-offs and promote diversification. Unfortunately, we lack information about the genetic architecture of MTOM functional systems. The skulls of teleost fishes contain both simple (lower jaw levers) as well as more complex (jaws modeled as 4-bar linkages) functional systems within the same craniofacial unit. We examined the mapping of form to function and the genetic basis of these systems by identifying quantitative trait loci (QTL) in hybrids of two Lake Malawi cichlid species. Hybrid individuals exhibited novelty (transgressive segregation) in morphological components and function of the simple and complex jaw systems. Functional novelty was proportional to the prevalence of extreme morphologies in the simple levers; by contrast, recombination of parental morphologies produced transgression in the MTOM 4-bar linkage. We found multiple loci of moderate effect and epistasis controlling jaw phenotypes in both the simple and complex systems, with less phenotypic variance explained by QTL for the 4-bar. Genetic linkage between components of the simple and complex systems partly explains phenotypic correlations and may constrain functional evolution. PMID:23106702

  18. Cx-02 Program, workshop on modeling complex systems

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mossotti, Victor G.; Barragan, Jo Ann; Westergard, Todd D.

    2003-01-01

    This publication contains the abstracts and program for the workshop on complex systems that was held on November 19-21, 2002, in Reno, Nevada. Complex systems are ubiquitous within the realm of the earth sciences. Geological systems consist of a multiplicity of linked components with nested feedback loops; the dynamics of these systems are non-linear, iterative, multi-scale, and operate far from equilibrium. That notwithstanding, It appears that, with the exception of papers on seismic studies, geology and geophysics work has been disproportionally underrepresented at regional and national meetings on complex systems relative to papers in the life sciences. This is somewhat puzzling because geologists and geophysicists are, in many ways, preadapted to thinking of complex system mechanisms. Geologists and geophysicists think about processes involving large volumes of rock below the sunlit surface of Earth, the accumulated consequence of processes extending hundreds of millions of years in the past. Not only do geologists think in the abstract by virtue of the vast time spans, most of the evidence is out-of-sight. A primary goal of this workshop is to begin to bridge the gap between the Earth sciences and life sciences through demonstration of the universality of complex systems science, both philosophically and in model structures.

  19. Semiotic aspects of control and modeling relations in complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Joslyn, C.

    1996-08-01

    A conceptual analysis of the semiotic nature of control is provided with the goal of elucidating its nature in complex systems. Control is identified as a canonical form of semiotic relation of a system to its environment. As a form of constraint between a system and its environment, its necessary and sufficient conditions are established, and the stabilities resulting from control are distinguished from other forms of stability. These result from the presence of semantic coding relations, and thus the class of control systems is hypothesized to be equivalent to that of semiotic systems. Control systems are contrasted with models, which, while they have the same measurement functions as control systems, do not necessarily require semantic relations because of the lack of the requirement of an interpreter. A hybrid construction of models in control systems is detailed. Towards the goal of considering the nature of control in complex systems, the possible relations among collections of control systems are considered. Powers arguments on conflict among control systems and the possible nature of control in social systems are reviewed, and reconsidered based on our observations about hierarchical control. Finally, we discuss the necessary semantic functions which must be present in complex systems for control in this sense to be present at all.

  20. Study of circulating immune complex size in systemic lupus erythematosus.

    PubMed Central

    Tung, K S; DeHoratius, R J; Williams, R C

    1981-01-01

    The molecular size of circulating immune complexes in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus was determined by the C1q solid-phase assay after the sera were fractionated by sucrose-gradient ultracentrifugation. Circulating immune complexes in patients with membranous glomerulonephritis were uniformly large, sedimenting exclusively above 19S, whereas the immune complexes in patients with cerebritis were small, at or just above 7S. In lupus patients with diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis and patients without renal involvement, immune complexes of both large and small sizes were found. Of patients without renal involvement, more circulating immune complexes were associated with active disease (n = 22, prevalence = 82%, mean level = 24 standard deviations) than with inactive disease (n = 17, prevalence = 41%, mean level = 41%, mean level = 6 . 5 standard deviations). In patients with clinical evidence for renal involvement, circulating immune complexes were detected in all of five patients with membranous glomerulonephritis, in 88% of 17 patients with diffuse proliferative glomerulonephritis and in one of four patients with mesangial nephritis. Thus, in addition to the finding of an overall positive correlation between disease activity and circulating immune complex levels, circulating immune complexes of certain general molecular size ranges appear to be associated with different clinical manifestations of systemic lupus erythematosus. Images Fig. 1 Fig. 2 Fig. 3 PMID:7285395

  1. The Quaternary uplift history of central southern England: evidence from the terraces of the Solent River system and nearby raised beaches

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westaway, Rob; Bridgland, David; White, Mark

    2006-09-01

    We have used fluvial (Solent River system) and marine terraces to reconstruct the uplift history of central southern England. In the case of the former, we make the assumption that fluvial incision has been a direct response to surface uplift, with its precise timing controlled by climatic forcing of fluvial activity, such that height of terrace gravel above modern river is a consequence of uplift since deposition. In the case of the marine sequence, we take the height of interglacial raised beaches above a calculated contemporaneous sea-level as a measure of uplift, the calculation involving an adjustment from modern sea-level using the deep oceanic oxygen isotope signal as an indication of global ice volume at the time of deposition. This exercise requires some degree of dating constraint, which is problematic for both environments. The Solent terraces have yielded little biostratigraphical evidence, whereas the south coast raised beaches have either been poorly exposed in recent years or their ages have been controversial because of disputes between biostratigraphy and geochronological data. We have supplemented the evidence available from these sources by using key aspects of the archaeological record as dating constraints, in particular the first appearances of Levallois technique (a marker for MIS 9-8) and of bout coupé handaxes (MIS 3). The first of these has been particularly useful in modelling of the Middle Pleistocene parts of the river terrace staircases of the Solent system. In undertaking this reappraisal, we have noted several inconsistencies and disagreements between past correlation schemes for the terraces of the Solent and its various tributaries. We find that versions involving shallower downstream gradients in the main Solent River are most likely to be correct and that revisions on this basis solve a number of problems in interpretation encountered previously. Our results show that most of this region has uplifted by ˜70 m since the late

  2. Please Come to New England: Slow Growth Spells Trouble for Local Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Francese, Peter

    2002-01-01

    New England may be the wealthiest region in the United States, but it is also the oldest and slowest-growing, and among the least diverse. These peculiar demographic characteristics combined with New England's history of heavy reliance on local governments suggest future problems for the region's educational systems. Since most public schools in…

  3. Education Reform in England: Quality and Equity in the Performative School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilkins, Chris

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that contradictory forces affect teachers' work in the neo-liberal school system in England, with a diversity of governance models alongside increasingly dominant orthodoxies of what constitutes 'effective practice and leadership'. School reforms in England have focused on increasing overall attainment and on closing the…

  4. Market-Oriented School Reform in England and Finland: School Choice, Finance and Governance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    West, Anne; Ylonen, Annamari

    2010-01-01

    This paper explores the introduction of market-oriented reforms into school-based education in England and Finland. The contexts into which reforms were introduced differed, with a fully comprehensive system being in place in Finland but not in England; the motives were also different; and different trajectories have since been followed. Whilst…

  5. Complexity and Control: Towards a Rigorous Behavioral Theory of Complex Dynamical Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivancevic, Vladimir G.; Reid, Darryn J.

    We introduce our motive for writing this book on complexity and control with a popular "complexity myth," which seems to be quite wide spread among chaos and complexity theory fashionistas: Low-dimensional systems usually exhibit complex behaviours (which we know fromMay's studies of the Logisticmap), while high-dimensional systems usually exhibit simple behaviours (which we know from synchronisation studies of the Kuramoto model)... We admit that this naive view on complex (e.g., human) systems versus simple (e.g., physical) systems might seem compelling to various technocratic managers and politicians; indeed, the idea makes for appealing sound-bites. However, it is enough to see both in the equations and computer simulations of pendula of various degree - (i) a single pendulum, (ii) a double pendulum, and (iii) a triple pendulum - that this popular myth is plain nonsense. The only thing that we can learn from it is what every tyrant already knows: by using force as a strong means of control, it is possible to effectively synchronise even hundreds of millions of people, at least for a while.

  6. Computer-Assisted Monitoring Of A Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beil, Bob J.; Mickelson, Eric M.; Sterritt, John M.; Costantino, Rob W.; Houvener, Bob C.; Super, Mike A.

    1995-01-01

    Propulsion System Advisor (PSA) computer-based system assists engineers and technicians in analyzing masses of sensory data indicative of operating conditions of space shuttle propulsion system during pre-launch and launch activities. Designed solely for monitoring; does not perform any control functions. Although PSA developed for highly specialized application, serves as prototype of noncontrolling, computer-based subsystems for monitoring other complex systems like electric-power-distribution networks and factories.

  7. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-01

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  8. From globally coupled maps to complex-systems biology

    SciTech Connect

    Kaneko, Kunihiko

    2015-09-15

    Studies of globally coupled maps, introduced as a network of chaotic dynamics, are briefly reviewed with an emphasis on novel concepts therein, which are universal in high-dimensional dynamical systems. They include clustering of synchronized oscillations, hierarchical clustering, chimera of synchronization and desynchronization, partition complexity, prevalence of Milnor attractors, chaotic itinerancy, and collective chaos. The degrees of freedom necessary for high dimensionality are proposed to equal the number in which the combinatorial exceeds the exponential. Future analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems with regard to complex-systems biology is briefly discussed.

  9. A Multiobjective Optimization Framework for Stochastic Control of Complex Systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas; Maroulas, Vasileios; Xiong, Professor Jie

    2015-01-01

    This paper addresses the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of subsystems that interact with each other and the environment. We treat the stochastic control problem as a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems, and we show that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution is an optimal control policy that minimizes the average cost criterion for the entire system. For practical situations with constraints consistent to those we study here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value in deriving online an optimal control policy in complex systems.

  10. A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derive online the optimal control policy in complex systems.

  11. Complex Moving Parts: Assessment Systems and Electronic Portfolios

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larkin, Martha J.; Robertson, Royce L.

    2013-01-01

    The largest college within an online university of over 50,000 students invested significant resources in translating a complex assessment system focused on continuous improvement and national accreditation into an effective and efficient electronic portfolio (ePortfolio). The team building the system needed a model to address problems met…

  12. Understanding leukemic hematopoiesis as a complex adaptive system

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Xavier

    2015-01-01

    Normal and abnormal hematopoiesis is working as a complex adaptive system. From this perspective, the development and the behavior of hematopoietic cell lineages appear as a balance between normal and abnormal hematopoiesis in the setting of a functioning or malfunctioning microenvironment under the control of the immune system and the influence of hereditary and environmental events. PMID:26516407

  13. Can Models Capture the Complexity of the Systems Engineering Process?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boppana, Krishna; Chow, Sam; de Weck, Olivier L.; Lafon, Christian; Lekkakos, Spyridon D.; Lyneis, James; Rinaldi, Matthew; Wang, Zhiyong; Wheeler, Paul; Zborovskiy, Marat; Wojcik, Leonard A.

    Many large-scale, complex systems engineering (SE) programs have been problematic; a few examples are listed below (Bar-Yam, 2003 and Cullen, 2004), and many others have been late, well over budget, or have failed: Hilton/Marriott/American Airlines system for hotel reservations and flights; 1988-1992; 125 million; "scrapped"

  14. Integrability of Lotka-Volterra Planar Complex Cubic Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dukarić, Maša; Giné, Jaume

    In this paper, we study the Lotka-Volterra complex cubic systems. We obtain necessary conditions of integrability for these systems with some restriction on the parameters. The sufficiency is proved for all conditions, except one which remains open, using different methods.

  15. Managing the Complexity of E-Learning Systems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trentin, Guglielmo

    2003-01-01

    Discussion of the use of information and communication technologies to support educational processes focuses on electronic learning systems and problems related to the management of the complexity of these systems. Presents electronic learning models and discusses the need for specific research about their organizational development. (Author/LRW)

  16. Dual-phase evolution in complex adaptive systems

    PubMed Central

    Paperin, Greg; Green, David G.; Sadedin, Suzanne

    2011-01-01

    Understanding the origins of complexity is a key challenge in many sciences. Although networks are known to underlie most systems, showing how they contribute to well-known phenomena remains an issue. Here, we show that recurrent phase transitions in network connectivity underlie emergent phenomena in many systems. We identify properties that are typical of systems in different connectivity phases, as well as characteristics commonly associated with the phase transitions. We synthesize these common features into a common framework, which we term dual-phase evolution (DPE). Using this framework, we review the literature from several disciplines to show that recurrent connectivity phase transitions underlie the complex properties of many biological, physical and human systems. We argue that the DPE framework helps to explain many complex phenomena, including perpetual novelty, modularity, scale-free networks and criticality. Our review concludes with a discussion of the way DPE relates to other frameworks, in particular, self-organized criticality and the adaptive cycle. PMID:21247947

  17. Complex Homology and the Evolution of Nervous Systems

    PubMed Central

    Liebeskind, Benjamin J.; Hillis, David M.; Zakon, Harold H.; Hofmann, Hans A.

    2016-01-01

    We examine the complex evolution of animal nervous systems and discuss the ramifications of this complexity for inferring the nature of early animals. Although reconstructing the origins of nervous systems remains a central challenge in biology, and the phenotypic complexity of early animals remains controversial, a compelling picture is emerging. We now know that the nervous system and other key animal innovations contain a large degree of homoplasy, at least on the molecular level. Conflicting hypotheses about early nervous system evolution are due primarily to differences in the interpretation of this homoplasy. We highlight the need for explicit discussion of assumptions and discuss the limitations of current approaches for inferring ancient phenotypic states. PMID:26746806

  18. Teacher Unionism and Collective Bargaining in England and Wales.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thornton, Robert J.

    1982-01-01

    This article analyzes the teacher union movement and the system of teacher bargaining in England and Wales. The author traces the postwar history of teacher negotiations and shows that the present system of negotiation has experienced increasing difficulties in the past decade, such as a rise in teacher militancy. (Author/CT)

  19. Data driven uncertainty evaluation for complex engineered system design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Boyuan; Huang, Shuangxi; Fan, Wenhui; Xiao, Tianyuan; Humann, James; Lai, Yuyang; Jin, Yan

    2016-05-01

    Complex engineered systems are often difficult to analyze and design due to the tangled interdependencies among their subsystems and components. Conventional design methods often need exact modeling or accurate structure decomposition, which limits their practical application. The rapid expansion of data makes utilizing data to guide and improve system design indispensable in practical engineering. In this paper, a data driven uncertainty evaluation approach is proposed to support the design of complex engineered systems. The core of the approach is a data-mining based uncertainty evaluation method that predicts the uncertainty level of a specific system design by means of analyzing association relations along different system attributes and synthesizing the information entropy of the covered attribute areas, and a quantitative measure of system uncertainty can be obtained accordingly. Monte Carlo simulation is introduced to get the uncertainty extrema, and the possible data distributions under different situations is discussed in detail. The uncertainty values can be normalized using the simulation results and the values can be used to evaluate different system designs. A prototype system is established, and two case studies have been carried out. The case of an inverted pendulum system validates the effectiveness of the proposed method, and the case of an oil sump design shows the practicability when two or more design plans need to be compared. This research can be used to evaluate the uncertainty of complex engineered systems completely relying on data, and is ideally suited for plan selection and performance analysis in system design.

  20. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

    PubMed Central

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity. PMID:27297496

  1. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions.

    PubMed

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-01-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity. PMID:27297496

  2. A Statistical Physics Characterization of the Complex Systems Dynamics: Quantifying Complexity from Spatio-Temporal Interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koorehdavoudi, Hana; Bogdan, Paul

    2016-06-01

    Biological systems are frequently categorized as complex systems due to their capabilities of generating spatio-temporal structures from apparent random decisions. In spite of research on analyzing biological systems, we lack a quantifiable framework for measuring their complexity. To fill this gap, in this paper, we develop a new paradigm to study a collective group of N agents moving and interacting in a three-dimensional space. Our paradigm helps to identify the spatio-temporal states of the motion of the group and their associated transition probabilities. This framework enables the estimation of the free energy landscape corresponding to the identified states. Based on the energy landscape, we quantify missing information, emergence, self-organization and complexity for a collective motion. We show that the collective motion of the group of agents evolves to reach the most probable state with relatively lowest energy level and lowest missing information compared to other possible states. Our analysis demonstrates that the natural group of animals exhibit a higher degree of emergence, self-organization and complexity over time. Consequently, this algorithm can be integrated into new frameworks to engineer collective motions to achieve certain degrees of emergence, self-organization and complexity.

  3. Observation-Driven Configuration of Complex Software Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sage, Aled

    2010-06-01

    The ever-increasing complexity of software systems makes them hard to comprehend, predict and tune due to emergent properties and non-deterministic behaviour. Complexity arises from the size of software systems and the wide variety of possible operating environments: the increasing choice of platforms and communication policies leads to ever more complex performance characteristics. In addition, software systems exhibit different behaviour under different workloads. Many software systems are designed to be configurable so that policies can be chosen to meet the needs of various stakeholders. For complex software systems it can be difficult to accurately predict the effects of a change and to know which configuration is most appropriate. This thesis demonstrates that it is useful to run automated experiments that measure a selection of system configurations. Experiments can find configurations that meet the stakeholders' needs, find interesting behavioural characteristics, and help produce predictive models of the system's behaviour. The design and use of ACT (Automated Configuration Tool) for running such experiments is described, in combination a number of search strategies for deciding on the configurations to measure. Design Of Experiments (DOE) is discussed, with emphasis on Taguchi Methods. These statistical methods have been used extensively in manufacturing, but have not previously been used for configuring software systems. The novel contribution here is an industrial case study, applying the combination of ACT and Taguchi Methods to DC-Directory, a product from Data Connection Ltd (DCL). The case study investigated the applicability of Taguchi Methods for configuring complex software systems. Taguchi Methods were found to be useful for modelling and configuring DC- Directory, making them a valuable addition to the techniques available to system administrators and developers.

  4. What nurse leaders should know about complex adaptive systems theory.

    PubMed

    Penprase, Barbara; Norris, Diane

    2005-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to provide an overview of key concepts in understanding complex adaptive systems theory (CAS) and its application to nursing management. CAS concerns altering management practice and revolutionizing how nurse leaders think, behave, and problem solve. CAS discards former beliefs and embraces the concepts of self-organization and attractors (catalysts that allow new behaviors to emerge spontaneously) that enable order and creativity to emerge. Stressing that the most powerful processes begin at the micro level of an organization with the staff, complexity science offers nursing leadership new strategies for successfully navigating chaotic, complex times in health care management. PMID:16206697

  5. Demonstration of a Safety Analysis on a Complex System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Alfaro, Liliana; Alvarado, Christine; Brown, Molly; Hunt, Earl B.; Jaffe, Matt; Joslyn, Susan; Pinnell, Denise; Reese, Jon; Samarziya, Jeffrey; Sandys, Sean; Shaw, Alan; Zabinsky, Zelda

    1997-01-01

    For the past 17 years, Professor Leveson and her graduate students have been developing a theoretical foundation for safety in complex systems and building a methodology upon that foundation. The methodology includes special management structures and procedures, system hazard analyses, software hazard analysis, requirements modeling and analysis for completeness and safety, special software design techniques including the design of human-machine interaction, verification, operational feedback, and change analysis. The Safeware methodology is based on system safety techniques that are extended to deal with software and human error. Automation is used to enhance our ability to cope with complex systems. Identification, classification, and evaluation of hazards is done using modeling and analysis. To be effective, the models and analysis tools must consider the hardware, software, and human components in these systems. They also need to include a variety of analysis techniques and orthogonal approaches: There exists no single safety analysis or evaluation technique that can handle all aspects of complex systems. Applying only one or two may make us feel satisfied, but will produce limited results. We report here on a demonstration, performed as part of a contract with NASA Langley Research Center, of the Safeware methodology on the Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) portion of the air traffic control (ATC) system and procedures currently employed at the Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) TRACON (Terminal Radar Approach CONtrol). CTAS is an automated system to assist controllers in handling arrival traffic in the DFW area. Safety is a system property, not a component property, so our safety analysis considers the entire system and not simply the automated components. Because safety analysis of a complex system is an interdisciplinary effort, our team included system engineers, software engineers, human factors experts, and cognitive psychologists.

  6. Novel measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity for use in complex system behavior studies and time series analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mihailović, Dragutin T.; Mimić, Gordan; Nikolić-Djorić, Emilija; Arsenić, Ilija

    2015-01-01

    We propose novel metrics based on the Kolmogorov complexity for use in complex system behavior studies and time series analysis. We consider the origins of the Kolmogorov complexity and discuss its physical meaning. To get better insights into the nature of complex systems and time series analysis we introduce three novel measures based on the Kolmogorov complexity: (i) the Kolmogorov complexity spectrum, (ii) the Kolmogorov complexity spectrum highest value and (iii) the overall Kolmogorov complexity. The characteristics of these measures have been tested using a generalized logistic equation. Finally, the proposed measures have been applied to different time series originating from: a model output (the biochemical substance exchange in a multi-cell system), four different geophysical phenomena (dynamics of: river flow, long term precipitation, indoor 222Rn concentration and UV radiation dose) and the economy (stock price dynamics). The results obtained offer deeper insights into the complexity of system dynamics and time series analysis with the proposed complexity measures.

  7. Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muery, Kim; Foshee, Mark; Marsh, Angela

    2006-01-01

    International Space Station (ISS) payload developers submit their payload science requirements for the development of on-board execution timelines. The ISS systems required to execute the payload science operations must be represented as constraints for the execution timeline. Payload developers use a software application, User Requirements Collection (URC), to submit their requirements by selecting a simplified representation of ISS system constraints. To fully represent the complex ISS systems, the constraints require a level of detail that is beyond the insight of the payload developer. To provide the complex representation of the ISS system constraints, HOSC operations personnel, specifically the Payload Activity Requirements Coordinators (PARC), manually translate the payload developers simplified constraints into detailed ISS system constraints used for scheduling the payload activities in the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). This paper describes the implementation for a software application, User Requirements Integration (URI), developed to automate the manual ISS constraint translation process.

  8. Stephen Jay Kline on systems, or physics, complex systems, and the gap between.

    SciTech Connect

    Campbell, Philip LaRoche

    2011-06-01

    At the end of his life, Stephen Jay Kline, longtime professor of mechanical engineering at Stanford University, completed a book on how to address complex systems. The title of the book is 'Conceptual Foundations of Multi-Disciplinary Thinking' (1995), but the topic of the book is systems. Kline first establishes certain limits that are characteristic of our conscious minds. Kline then establishes a complexity measure for systems and uses that complexity measure to develop a hierarchy of systems. Kline then argues that our minds, due to their characteristic limitations, are unable to model the complex systems in that hierarchy. Computers are of no help to us here. Our attempts at modeling these complex systems are based on the way we successfully model some simple systems, in particular, 'inert, naturally-occurring' objects and processes, such as what is the focus of physics. But complex systems overwhelm such attempts. As a result, the best we can do in working with these complex systems is to use a heuristic, what Kline calls the 'Guideline for Complex Systems.' Kline documents the problems that have developed due to 'oversimple' system models and from the inappropriate application of a system model from one domain to another. One prominent such problem is the Procrustean attempt to make the disciplines that deal with complex systems be 'physics-like.' Physics deals with simple systems, not complex ones, using Kline's complexity measure. The models that physics has developed are inappropriate for complex systems. Kline documents a number of the wasteful and dangerous fallacies of this type.

  9. Governance of complex systems: results of a sociological simulation experiment.

    PubMed

    Adelt, Fabian; Weyer, Johannes; Fink, Robin D

    2014-01-01

    Social sciences have discussed the governance of complex systems for a long time. The following paper tackles the issue by means of experimental sociology, in order to investigate the performance of different modes of governance empirically. The simulation framework developed is based on Esser's model of sociological explanation as well as on Kroneberg's model of frame selection. The performance of governance has been measured by means of three macro and two micro indicators. Surprisingly, central control mostly performs better than decentralised coordination. However, results not only depend on the mode of governance, but there is also a relation between performance and the composition of actor populations, which has yet not been investigated sufficiently. Practitioner Summary: Practitioners can gain insights into the functioning of complex systems and learn how to better manage them. Additionally, they are provided with indicators to measure the performance of complex systems. PMID:24456093

  10. State analysis requirements database for engineering complex embedded systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bennett, Matthew B.; Rasmussen, Robert D.; Ingham, Michel D.

    2004-01-01

    It has become clear that spacecraft system complexity is reaching a threshold where customary methods of control are no longer affordable or sufficiently reliable. At the heart of this problem are the conventional approaches to systems and software engineering based on subsystem-level functional decomposition, which fail to scale in the tangled web of interactions typically encountered in complex spacecraft designs. Furthermore, there is a fundamental gap between the requirements on software specified by systems engineers and the implementation of these requirements by software engineers. Software engineers must perform the translation of requirements into software code, hoping to accurately capture the systems engineer's understanding of the system behavior, which is not always explicitly specified. This gap opens up the possibility for misinterpretation of the systems engineer's intent, potentially leading to software errors. This problem is addressed by a systems engineering tool called the State Analysis Database, which provides a tool for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models. This paper describes how requirements for complex aerospace systems can be developed using the State Analysis Database.

  11. Complex systems dynamics in aging: new evidence, continuing questions.

    PubMed

    Cohen, Alan A

    2016-02-01

    There have long been suggestions that aging is tightly linked to the complex dynamics of the physiological systems that maintain homeostasis, and in particular to dysregulation of regulatory networks of molecules. This review synthesizes recent work that is starting to provide evidence for the importance of such complex systems dynamics in aging. There is now clear evidence that physiological dysregulation--the gradual breakdown in the capacity of complex regulatory networks to maintain homeostasis--is an emergent property of these regulatory networks, and that it plays an important role in aging. It can be measured simply using small numbers of biomarkers. Additionally, there are indications of the importance during aging of emergent physiological processes, functional processes that cannot be easily understood through clear metabolic pathways, but can nonetheless be precisely quantified and studied. The overall role of such complex systems dynamics in aging remains an important open question, and to understand it future studies will need to distinguish and integrate related aspects of aging research, including multi-factorial theories of aging, systems biology, bioinformatics, network approaches, robustness, and loss of complexity. PMID:25991473

  12. New England After 3 PM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Afterschool Alliance, 2007

    2007-01-01

    Some 20 percent of children in New England have no safe, supervised activities after the school day ends each afternoon. These children are in self-care, missing out on opportunities to learn and explore new interests, and at risk for any number of risky behaviors including substance abuse, crime and teen pregnancy. Policy makers, parents and many…

  13. Apprenticeships in England: What Next?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hogarth, Terence; Gambin, Lynn; Hasluck, Chris

    2012-01-01

    This paper examines recent development in Apprenticeship training in England. Since the introduction of Modern Apprenticeships in the mid-1990s this form of training has been subject to much analysis and reform. This paper summarises the current situation and highlights some of the challenges and opportunities which face Apprenticeship over the…

  14. Promoting Community Cohesion in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morris, Andrew B.; McDaid, Maggie; Potter, Hugh

    2011-01-01

    Following serious disturbances in some northern cities in England in 2001, concerns about possible rising inter-communal tension have led to a statutory duty to promote community cohesion being placed on schools. Inspectors from the Office for Standards in Education (Ofsted) are required to make judgements in the leadership and management section…

  15. HYDROLOGIC FEATURES OF NEW ENGLAND

    EPA Science Inventory

    The data set portrays the polygon and line water features of New England. The file was produced by joining the individual State hydrography layers from the 1:2,000,000-scale Digital Line Graph (DLG) data produced by the USGS. This is a revised version of the March 1999 data set...

  16. Mapping School Types in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Courtney, Steven J.

    2015-01-01

    The number and range of school types in England is increasing rapidly in response to a neoliberal policy agenda aiming to expand choice of provision as a mechanism for raising educational standards. In this paper, I seek to undertake a mapping of these school types in order to describe and explain what is happening. I capture this busy terrain…

  17. Emergent “quantum” theory in complex adaptive systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Minic, Djordje; Pajevic, Sinisa

    2016-03-01

    Motivated by the question of stability, in this paper we argue that an effective quantum-like theory can emerge in complex adaptive systems. In the concrete example of stochastic Lotka-Volterra dynamics, the relevant effective “Planck constant” associated with such emergent “quantum” theory has the dimensions of the square of the unit of time. Such an emergent quantum-like theory has inherently nonclassical stability as well as coherent properties that are not, in principle, endangered by thermal fluctuations and therefore might be of crucial importance in complex adaptive systems.

  18. Balancing Management and Leadership in Complex Health Systems

    PubMed Central

    Kwamie, Aku

    2015-01-01

    Health systems, particularly those in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), need stronger management and leadership capacities. Management and leadership are not synonymous, yet should be considered together as there can be too much of one and not enough of the other. In complex adaptive health systems, the multiple interactions and relationships between people and elements of the system mean that management and leadership, so often treated as domains of the individual, are additionally systemic phenomena, emerging from these relational interactions. This brief commentary notes some significant implications for how we can support capacity strengthening interventions for complex management and leadership. These would necessarily move away from competency-based models focused on training for individuals, and would rather encompass longer-term initiatives explicitly focused on systemic goals of accountability, innovation, and learning. PMID:26673472

  19. Agent Technology, Complex Adaptive Systems, and Autonomic Systems: Their Relationships

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truszkowski, Walt; Rash, James; Rouff, Chistopher; Hincheny, Mike

    2004-01-01

    To reduce the cost of future spaceflight missions and to perform new science, NASA has been investigating autonomous ground and space flight systems. These goals of cost reduction have been further complicated by nanosatellites for future science data-gathering which will have large communications delays and at times be out of contact with ground control for extended periods of time. This paper describes two prototype agent-based systems, the Lights-out Ground Operations System (LOGOS) and the Agent Concept Testbed (ACT), and their autonomic properties that were developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) to demonstrate autonomous operations of future space flight missions. The paper discusses the architecture of the two agent-based systems, operational scenarios of both, and the two systems autonomic properties.

  20. Specialist complex care.

    PubMed

    Oliver, Susan

    2016-08-01

    I agree with your editorial on how NHS England and the Department of Health (DH) have failed to realise that specialist care for complex diseases requires experienced and knowledgeable support. PMID:27484551

  1. A comparative study of actinide complexation in three ligand systems with increasing complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jeanson, A.; Dahou, S.; Guillaumont, D.; Moisy, P.; Den Auwer, C.; Scheinost, A.; Hennig, C.; Vidaud, C.; Subra, G.; Solari, P. L.

    2009-11-01

    The complexation of thorium, neptunium and plutonium at oxidation state +IV with three ligands of increasing complexity has been investigated. These ligands are relevant for bio inorganic systems. The first ligand is the small nitrilotriacetic acid that often play the role of protecting ligands against hydrolysis. EXAFS results for the Th to Pu series have been correlated to quantum chemical calculations and show an homogeneous behavior of the actinide at oxidation state +IV. For larger ligands, steric effects may become significant and one can ask how the ligand may accommodate the large actinide cation coordination sphere. Model pentapeptides have been synthesized and tested as complexing agents. Comparison with NTA shows that the molecular arrangements are radically different. The third ligand system is transferrin, a diferric metalloptrotein that is well known to coordinate a large variety of cations from transition metals of f-elements. Metalloproteins bear primary, secondary and tertiary structures that all play a crucial role in bonding. At a given oxidation state (+IV), but for various atomic numbers (Th, Np, Pu) EXAFS data at the cation LIII edge exhibit significant coordination discrepancies that are related to a changes in protein geometry. In that sense, the metalloprotein may be viewed as a complex system.

  2. Complex amplitude correlations of dynamic laser speckle in complex ABCD optical systems.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wei; Hanson, Steen G; Takeda, Mitsuo

    2006-09-01

    Within the framework of complex ABCD-matrix theory, exact theoretical expressions are derived for the space-time-lagged cross-covariance functions of the fields valid for arbitrary (complex) ABCD-optical systems, i.e., systems that include Gaussian-shaped apertures and partially developed speckle. Specifically, we show and discuss the results for the three generic systems, i.e., free-space propagation, Fourier transform configuration, and imaging. To cope with various surface structures of varying rms surface heights, we apply two models in addition to employing the usual model for surfaces giving rise to fully developed speckle. The theoretical results found for free-space propagation are supported by interferometrically obtained data. PMID:16912746

  3. Economic Decision Making: Application of the Theory of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitt, Robert

    In this chapter the complex systems are discussed in the context of economic and business policy and decision making. It will be showed and motivated that social systems are typically chaotic, non-linear and/or non-equilibrium and therefore complex systems. It is discussed that the rapid change in global consumer behaviour is underway, that further increases the complexity in business and management. For policy making under complexity, following principles are offered: openness and international competition, tolerance and variety of ideas, self-reliability and low dependence on external help. The chapter contains four applications that build on the theoretical motivation of complexity in social systems. The first application demonstrates that small economies have good prospects to gain from the global processes underway, if they can demonstrate production flexibility, reliable business ethics and good risk management. The second application elaborates on and discusses the opportunities and challenges in decision making under complexity from macro and micro economic perspective. In this environment, the challenges for corporate management are being also permanently changed: the balance between short term noise and long term chaos whose attractor includes customers, shareholders and employees must be found. The emergence of chaos in economic relationships is demonstrated by a simple system of differential equations that relate the stakeholders described above. The chapter concludes with two financial applications: about debt and risk management. The non-equilibrium economic establishment leads to additional problems by using excessive borrowing; unexpected downturns in economy can more easily kill companies. Finally, the demand for quantitative improvements in risk management is postulated. Development of the financial markets has triggered non-linearity to spike in prices of various production articles such as agricultural and other commodities that has added market

  4. Non-metallocene organometallic complexes and related methods and systems

    DOEpatents

    Agapie, Theodor; Golisz, Suzanne Rose; Tofan, Daniel; Bercaw, John E.

    2010-12-07

    A non-metallocene organometallic complex comprising a tridentate ligand and a metal bonded to a tridentate ligand, wherein two substituted aryl groups in the tridentate ligand are connected to a cyclic group at the ortho position via semi-rigid ring-ring linkages, and selected so to provide the resulting non-metallocene organometallic complex with a C.sub.S geometry, a C.sub.1 geometry, a C.sub.2 geometry or a C.sub.2v geometry. Method for performing olefin polymerization with a non-metallocene organometallic complex as a catalyst, related catalytic systems, tridentate ligand and method for providing a non-metallocene organometallic complex.

  5. Refined scale-dependent permutation entropy to analyze systems complexity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shuen-De; Wu, Chiu-Wen; Humeau-Heurtier, Anne

    2016-05-01

    Multiscale entropy (MSE) has become a prevailing method to quantify the complexity of systems. Unfortunately, MSE has a temporal complexity in O(N2) , which is unrealistic for long time series. Moreover, MSE relies on the sample entropy computation which is length-dependent and which leads to large variance and possible undefined entropy values for short time series. Here, we propose and introduce a new multiscale complexity measure, the refined scale-dependent permutation entropy (RSDPE). Through the processing of different kinds of synthetic data and real signals, we show that RSDPE has a behavior close to the one of MSE. Furthermore, RSDPE has a temporal complexity in O(N) . Finally, RSDPE has the advantage of being much less length-dependent than MSE. From all this, we conclude that RSDPE over-performs MSE in terms of computational cost and computational accuracy.

  6. Natural selection and self-organization in complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Di Bernardo, Mirko

    2010-01-01

    The central theme of this work is self-organization "interpreted" both from the point of view of theoretical biology, and from a philosophical point of view. By analysing, on the one hand, those which are now considered--not only in the field of physics--some of the most important discoveries, that is complex systems and deterministic chaos and, on the other hand, the new frontiers of systemic biology, this work highlights how large thermodynamic systems which are open can spontaneously stay in an orderly regime. Such systems can represent the natural source of the order required for a stable self-organization, for homoeostasis and for hereditary variations. The order, emerging in enormous randomly interconnected nets of binary variables, is almost certainly only the precursor of similar orders emerging in all the varieties of complex systems. Hence, this work, by finding new foundations for the order pervading the living world, advances the daring hypothesis according to which Darwinian natural selection is not the only source of order in the biosphere. Thus, the article, by examining the passage from Prigogine's dissipative structures theory to the contemporary theory of biological complexity, highlights the development of a coherent and continuous line of research which is set to individuate the general principles marking the profound reality of that mysterious self-organization characterizing the complexity of life. PMID:20882479

  7. Managing Programmatic Risk for Complex Space System Developments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Panetta, Peter V.; Hastings, Daniel; Brumfield, Mark (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Risk management strategies have become a recent important research topic to many aerospace organizations as they prepare to develop the revolutionary complex space systems of the future. Future multi-disciplinary complex space systems will make it absolutely essential for organizations to practice a rigorous, comprehensive risk management process, emphasizing thorough systems engineering principles to succeed. Project managers must possess strong leadership skills to direct high quality, cross-disciplinary teams for successfully developing revolutionary space systems that are ever increasing in complexity. Proactive efforts to reduce or eliminate risk throughout a project's lifecycle ideally must be practiced by all technical members in the organization. This paper discusses some of the risk management perspectives that were collected from senior managers and project managers of aerospace and aeronautical organizations by the use of interviews and surveys. Some of the programmatic risks which drive the success or failure of projects are revealed. Key findings lead to a number of insights for organizations to consider for proactively approaching the risks which face current and future complex space systems projects.

  8. Computer Simulations and Theoretical Studies of Complex Systems: from complex fluids to frustrated magnets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, Eunsong

    Computer simulations are an integral part of research in modern condensed matter physics; they serve as a direct bridge between theory and experiment by systemactically applying a microscopic model to a collection of particles that effectively imitate a macroscopic system. In this thesis, we study two very differnt condensed systems, namely complex fluids and frustrated magnets, primarily by simulating classical dynamics of each system. In the first part of the thesis, we focus on ionic liquids (ILs) and polymers--the two complementary classes of materials that can be combined to provide various unique properties. The properties of polymers/ILs systems, such as conductivity, viscosity, and miscibility, can be fine tuned by choosing an appropriate combination of cations, anions, and polymers. However, designing a system that meets a specific need requires a concrete understanding of physics and chemistry that dictates a complex interplay between polymers and ionic liquids. In this regard, molecular dynamics (MD) simulation is an efficient tool that provides a molecular level picture of such complex systems. We study the behavior of Poly (ethylene oxide) (PEO) and the imidazolium based ionic liquids, using MD simulations and statistical mechanics. We also discuss our efforts to develop reliable and efficient classical force-fields for PEO and the ionic liquids. The second part is devoted to studies on geometrically frustrated magnets. In particular, a microscopic model, which gives rise to an incommensurate spiral magnetic ordering observed in a pyrochlore antiferromagnet is investigated. The validation of the model is made via a comparison of the spin-wave spectra with the neutron scattering data. Since the standard Holstein-Primakoff method is difficult to employ in such a complex ground state structure with a large unit cell, we carry out classical spin dynamics simulations to compute spin-wave spectra directly from the Fourier transform of spin trajectories. We

  9. Complexity VIII. Ontology of closure in complex systems: The C* hypothesis and the O° notation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chandler, Jerry LR

    1999-03-01

    Closure is a common characteristic of mathematical, natural and socio-cultural systems. Whether one is describing a graph, a molecule, a cell, a human, or a nation state, closure is implicitly understood. An objective of this paper is to continue a construction of a systematic framework for closure which is sufficient for future quantitative transdisciplinary investigations. A further objective is to extend the Birkhoff-von Neumann criterion for quantum systems to complex natural objects. The C* hypothesis is being constructed to be consistent with algebraic category theory (Ehresmann and Vanbremeersch, 1987, 1997, Chandler, 1990, 1991, Chandler, Ehresmann and Vanbremeersch, 1996). Five aspects of closure will be used to construct a framework for categories of complex systems: 1. Truth functions in mathematics and the natural sciences 2. Systematic descriptions in the mks and O° notations 3. Organizational structures in hierarchical scientific languages 4. Transitive organizational pathways in the causal structures of complex behaviors 5. Composing additive, multiplicative and exponential operations in complex systems Truth functions can be formal or objective or subjective, depending on the complexity of the system and on our capability to represent the fine structure of the system symbolically, observationally or descriptively. "Complete" material representations of the fine structure of a system may allow truth functions to be created over sets of one to one correspondences. Less complete descriptions can support less stringent truth functions based on coherence or subjective judgments. The role of human values in creating and perpetuating truth functions can be placed in context of the degree of fine structure in the system's description. The organization of complex systems are hypothesized to be categorizable into degrees relative to one another, thereby creating an ordering relationship. This ordering relationship is denoted by the symbols: O°1, O°2,O°3

  10. [The dimension of the paradigm of complexity in health systems].

    PubMed

    Fajardo-Ortiz, Guillermo; Fernández-Ortega, Miguel Ángel; Ortiz-Montalvo, Armando; Olivares-Santos, Roberto Antonio

    2015-01-01

    This article presents elements to better understand health systems from the complety paradigm, innovative perspective that offers other ways in the conception of the scientific knowledge prevalent away from linear, characterized by the arise of emerging dissociative and behaviors, based on the intra and trans-disciplinarity concepts such knowledges explain and understand in a different way what happens in the health systems with a view to efficiency and effectiveness. The complexity paradigm means another way of conceptualizing the knowledge, is different from the prevalent epistemology, is still under construction does not separate, not isolated, is not reductionist, or fixed, does not solve the problems, but gives other bases to know them and study them, is a different strategy, a perspective that has basis in the systems theory, informatics and cybernetics beyond traditional knowledge, the positive logics, the newtonian physics and symmetric mathematics, in which everything is centered and balanced, joint the "soft sciences and hard sciences", it has present the Social Determinants of Health and organizational culture. Under the complexity paradigm the health systems are identified with the following concepts: entropy, neguentropy, the thermodynamic second law, attractors, chaos theory, fractals, selfmanagement and self-organization, emerging behaviors, percolation, uncertainty, networks and robusteness; such expressions open new possibilities to improve the management and better understanding of the health systems, giving rise to consider health systems as complex adaptive systems. PMID:25982615

  11. Paucity of attractors in nonlinear systems driven with complex signals.

    PubMed

    Pethel, Shawn D; Blakely, Jonathan N

    2011-04-01

    We study the probability of multistability in a quadratic map driven repeatedly by a random signal of length N, where N is taken as a measure of the signal complexity. We first establish analytically that the number of coexisting attractors is bounded above by N. We then numerically estimate the probability p of a randomly chosen signal resulting in a multistable response as a function of N. Interestingly, with increasing drive signal complexity the system exhibits a paucity of attractors. That is, almost any drive signal beyond a certain complexity level will result in a single attractor response (p=0). This mechanism may play a role in allowing sensitive multistable systems to respond consistently to external influences. PMID:21599268

  12. A Knowledge Based Interactive System for Complex Product Design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gayretli, Ahmet

    This research presents a new Artificial Intelligence (AI) based product development approach for integrating mechanical design with electronic design to improve design and manufacture of electromechanical products by avoiding design conflicts in the early stages of the design process. The proposed approach has been implemented in a Delphi based environment integrated with a CAD system. The system assists designers from different disciplines in evaluating complex systems as far as parts relation, potential effects on each other, conflict management, costs, weight and physical constraints are concerned in the early design stages. This helps the designers to avoid design iterations leading to longer lead-time, hence increased cost. The developed system enables to rapidly develop and evaluate new complex products and add new functions to the existing products within given constraints.

  13. Reducing the complexity of software systems - A strategic software perspective

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hornstein, Rhoda S.

    1992-01-01

    The results of a combined management and technical initiative aimed at reducing the size and complexity associated with developing operations planning, scheduling, and resource management software systems are presented. The initiative has produced operations concepts, functional requirements, system architectures, a comprehensive lexicon, and software tools to revolutionize the traditional software technology and development practices for planning, scheduling, and resource management systems used in space operations control centers. Examples of technology and practices to reduce complexity include a method for projecting design consequences from an operations concept, a universal architecture for heuristic algorithms, an object-oriented framework for describing large classes of problems that parametrically adapt to all domain peculiarities, the identification of general approaches which respond to changes with minimum impact on systems implementations, and a management structure for prototyping to minimize the risks of ill-conceived designs.

  14. Applications of fidelity measures to complex quantum systems.

    PubMed

    Wimberger, Sandro

    2016-06-13

    We revisit fidelity as a measure for the stability and the complexity of the quantum motion of single-and many-body systems. Within the context of cold atoms, we present an overview of applications of two fidelities, which we call static and dynamical fidelity, respectively. The static fidelity applies to quantum problems which can be diagonalized since it is defined via the eigenfunctions. In particular, we show that the static fidelity is a highly effective practical detector of avoided crossings characterizing the complexity of the systems and their evolutions. The dynamical fidelity is defined via the time-dependent wave functions. Focusing on the quantum kicked rotor system, we highlight a few practical applications of fidelity measurements in order to better understand the large variety of dynamical regimes of this paradigm of a low-dimensional system with mixed regular-chaotic phase space. PMID:27140967

  15. Mathematical approaches for complexity/predictivity trade-offs in complex system models : LDRD final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Goldsby, Michael E.; Mayo, Jackson R.; Bhattacharyya, Arnab; Armstrong, Robert C.; Vanderveen, Keith

    2008-09-01

    The goal of this research was to examine foundational methods, both computational and theoretical, that can improve the veracity of entity-based complex system models and increase confidence in their predictions for emergent behavior. The strategy was to seek insight and guidance from simplified yet realistic models, such as cellular automata and Boolean networks, whose properties can be generalized to production entity-based simulations. We have explored the usefulness of renormalization-group methods for finding reduced models of such idealized complex systems. We have prototyped representative models that are both tractable and relevant to Sandia mission applications, and quantified the effect of computational renormalization on the predictive accuracy of these models, finding good predictivity from renormalized versions of cellular automata and Boolean networks. Furthermore, we have theoretically analyzed the robustness properties of certain Boolean networks, relevant for characterizing organic behavior, and obtained precise mathematical constraints on systems that are robust to failures. In combination, our results provide important guidance for more rigorous construction of entity-based models, which currently are often devised in an ad-hoc manner. Our results can also help in designing complex systems with the goal of predictable behavior, e.g., for cybersecurity.

  16. Chaotic and hyperchaotic attractors of a complex nonlinear system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahmoud, Gamal M.; Al-Kashif, M. A.; Farghaly, A. A.

    2008-02-01

    In this paper, we introduce a complex nonlinear hyperchaotic system which is a five-dimensional system of nonlinear autonomous differential equations. This system exhibits both chaotic and hyperchaotic behavior and its dynamics is very rich. Based on the Lyapunov exponents, the parameter values at which this system has chaotic, hyperchaotic attractors, periodic and quasi-periodic solutions and solutions that approach fixed points are calculated. The stability analysis of these fixed points is carried out. The fractional Lyapunov dimension of both chaotic and hyperchaotic attractors is calculated. Some figures are presented to show our results. Hyperchaos synchronization is studied analytically as well as numerically, and excellent agreement is found.

  17. Computer modeling of properties of complex molecular systems

    SciTech Connect

    Kulkova, E.Yu.; Khrenova, M.G.; Polyakov, I.V.

    2015-03-10

    Large molecular aggregates present important examples of strongly nonhomogeneous systems. We apply combined quantum mechanics / molecular mechanics approaches that assume treatment of a part of the system by quantum-based methods and the rest of the system with conventional force fields. Herein we illustrate these computational approaches by two different examples: (1) large-scale molecular systems mimicking natural photosynthetic centers, and (2) components of prospective solar cells containing titan dioxide and organic dye molecules. We demonstrate that modern computational tools are capable to predict structures and spectra of such complex molecular aggregates.

  18. Complex-compound low-temperature TES system

    SciTech Connect

    Rockenfeller, U.

    1989-03-01

    Development of a complex-compound low-temperature TES system is described herein from basic chemical principles through current bench scale system development. Important application engineering issues and an economic outlook are addressed as well. The system described uses adsorption reactions between solid metal inorganic salts and ammonia refrigerant. It is the coordinative nature of these reactions that allows for storage of ammonia refrigerant within the solid salt crystals that function as a chemical compressor during on peak periods (substituting the mechanical compressor) and release ammonia during off peak periods while a mechanical vapor compression system provides the necessary reactor pressure and heat.

  19. Complex Teacher Evaluation Systems Can Produce Negative Perceptions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schumacher, Gary

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine teacher perceptions of the impact on instructional practice when using a complex, standards-based performance evaluation system. The study used expectancy theory to investigate teacher expectancy (did they believe they could enhance their practice to the identified program standards?), instrumentality…

  20. The German and English Auxiliary Systems and Complex Predicates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McCormick, Terrence C.

    1976-01-01

    This paper explores the auxiliary systems of English and German and the use of the auxiliary verbs in various complex predicate structures in the two languages. It aims at alleviating two types of problems in learning German involving governing patterns and ordering problems in clauses. (CHK)

  1. Mining Students' Inquiry Actions for Understanding of Complex Systems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Sharona T.; Wilensky, Uri

    2011-01-01

    This study lies at an intersection between advancing educational data mining methods for detecting students' knowledge-in-action and the broader question of how conceptual and mathematical forms of knowing interact in exploring complex chemical systems. More specifically, it investigates students' inquiry actions in three computer-based models of…

  2. Complex Adaptive Systems as Metaphors for Organizational Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Palmberg, Klara

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explore the concept of complex adaptive systems (CAS) from the perspective of managing organizations, to describe and explore the management principles in a case study of an organization with unconventional ways of management and to present a tentative model for managing organizations as CAS--system…

  3. EVALUATING DISCONTINUITIES IN COMPLEX SYSTEMS: TOWARD QUANTITATIVE MEASURE OF RESILIENCE

    EPA Science Inventory

    The textural discontinuity hypothesis (TDH) is based on the observation that animal body mass distributions exhibit discontinuities that may reflect the texture of the landscape available for exploitation. This idea has been extended to other complex systems, hinting that the ide...

  4. Risk-return relationship in a complex adaptive system.

    PubMed

    Song, Kunyu; An, Kenan; Yang, Guang; Huang, Jiping

    2012-01-01

    For survival and development, autonomous agents in complex adaptive systems involving the human society must compete against or collaborate with others for sharing limited resources or wealth, by using different methods. One method is to invest, in order to obtain payoffs with risk. It is a common belief that investments with a positive risk-return relationship (namely, high risk high return and vice versa) are dominant over those with a negative risk-return relationship (i.e., high risk low return and vice versa) in the human society; the belief has a notable impact on daily investing activities of investors. Here we investigate the risk-return relationship in a model complex adaptive system, in order to study the effect of both market efficiency and closeness that exist in the human society and play an important role in helping to establish traditional finance/economics theories. We conduct a series of computer-aided human experiments, and also perform agent-based simulations and theoretical analysis to confirm the experimental observations and reveal the underlying mechanism. We report that investments with a negative risk-return relationship have dominance over those with a positive risk-return relationship instead in such a complex adaptive systems. We formulate the dynamical process for the system's evolution, which helps to discover the different role of identical and heterogeneous preferences. This work might be valuable not only to complexity science, but also to finance and economics, to management and social science, and to physics. PMID:22479416

  5. The Factorization Method for Simulating Systems with a Complex Action

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambjørn, J.; Anagnostopoulos, K. N.; Nishimura, J.; Verbaarschot, J. J. M.

    2004-04-01

    We propose a method for Monte Carlo simulations of systems with a complex action. The method has the advantages of being in principle applicable to any such system and provides a solution to the overlap problem. We apply it in random matrix theory of finite density QCD where we compare with analytic results. In this model we find non-commutativity of the limits μ → 0 and N → ∞ which could be of relevance in QCD at finite density.

  6. Envisioning an Ecologically Sustainable Campus At New England College

    SciTech Connect

    Paula Amato; Gregory Palmer

    2010-09-30

    Appropriation funding for our project Ecologically Sustainable Campus - New England College (NH). 67.09. supported five environmental initiatives: (1) a wood pellet boiler for our Science Building, (2) solar hot water panels and systems for five campus buildings, (3) campus-wide energy lighting efficiency project, (4) new efficiency boiler system in Colby Residence Hall, and (5) energy efficient lighting system for the new artificial athletic turf field. (1) New England College purchased and installed a new wood pellet boiler in the Science Building. This new boiler serves as the primary heating source for this building. Our boiler was purchased through New England Wood Pellet, LLC, located in Jaffrey, New Hampshire. The boiler selected was a Swebo, P500. 300KW wood pellet boiler. The primary goals, objectives, and outcomes of this initiative include the installation of a wood pellet boiler system that is environmentally friendly, highly efficient, and represents a sustainable and renewable resource for New England College. This project was completed on December 15, 2010. (2) New England College purchased and installed solar hot water panels and systems for the Science Building, the Simon Center (student center), the H. Raymond Danforth Library, Gilmore Dining Hall, and Bridges Gymnasium. The College worked with Granite State Plumbing & Heating, LLC, located in Weare, New Hampshire on this project. The solar panels are manufactured by Heat Transfer; the product is Heat Transfer 30-tube collector panels (Evacuated Tube Type) with stainless steel hardware. The interior equipment includes Super Stor Ultra stainless steel super insulated storage tank, Taco 009 Bronze circulator pump, Solar Relay Control Pack, and a Taco Thermal Expansion Tank. The primary goals, objectives, and outcomes of this initiative will allow the College to utilize the sun as an energy resource. These solar hot water panels and systems will alleviate our dependency on fossil fuel as our primary

  7. Early Childhood Music Education in England: Changes, Choices, and Challenges

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Susan

    2007-01-01

    Early childhood provision in England is undergoing a period of expansion and change. Policy for English early years education and care is based on principles of serving children in need rather than entitlement for all. The result is a two-tier system of private and state provision. Music has benefited from this increase in interest and investment.…

  8. The Uncertain Future of Comprehensive Schooling in England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gorard, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    This is an article about secondary schools in England, and what type of school is fair and efficient for a national education system. It discusses what "fair" could mean in this context, summarises some key policy revisions since 1944 in this light, and reminds readers of the damage caused by unfairness within education. Most notably it…

  9. Youth Justice in England and Wales: A Risky Business

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paylor, Ian

    2011-01-01

    Risk factor research dominates explanatory models of youth offending and "evidence-based" policy and practice with young people in the youth justice system in England and Wales. Asset is the product of these actuarial ideas and has put the risk factor prevention paradigm into practice. This article evaluates the impact that an actuarial approach…

  10. Fatal Child Maltreatment in England, 2005-2009

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sidebotham, Peter; Bailey, Sue; Belderson, Pippa; Brandon, Marian

    2011-01-01

    Objective: This paper presents comprehensive and up-to-date data covering 4 years of Serious Case Reviews into fatal child maltreatment in England. Methods: Information on all notified cases of fatal maltreatment between April 2005 and March 2009 was examined to obtain case characteristics related to a systemic classification of 5 broad groups of…

  11. Primary Teacher Education in England: 40 Years On

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, Jean; Passy, Rowena

    2014-01-01

    This article examines the relationship between pre-service teacher education (ITE) for primary schooling and primary teaching in England between 1974 and 2014, and explores the "fitness of purpose" of the current system of preparing teachers for the classrooms of the twenty-first century. Our historical analysis suggests that, despite 40…

  12. Policy Perspective: School Turnaround in England. Utilizing the Private Sector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Corbett, Julie

    2014-01-01

    This paper, written by strategic partner of the Center on School Turnaround (CST), Julie Corbett, provides research and examples on England's approach to turning around its lowest performing schools. The English education system utilizes private vendors to support chronically low-performing schools and districts. The introduction is followed by…

  13. Demographic Demise: The Declining Young Adult Population in New England

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gittell, Ross

    2007-01-01

    Young adult workers provide businesses with the dynamic labor force and fresh ideas they need to innovate and grow. With their contributions to cultural, intellectual and social life, young adults also make New England a vibrant and interesting place to live. Young families support local schools and demand a strong educational system. Yet New…

  14. Architectural Analysis of Complex Evolving Systems of Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lindvall, Mikael; Stratton, William C.; Sibol, Deane E.; Ray, Arnab; Ackemann, Chris; Yonkwa, Lyly; Ganesan, Dharma

    2009-01-01

    The goal of this collaborative project between FC-MD, APL, and GSFC and supported by NASA IV&V Software Assurance Research Program (SARP), was to develop a tool, Dynamic SAVE, or Dyn-SAVE for short, for analyzing architectures of systems of systems. The project team was comprised of the principal investigator (PI) from FC-MD and four other FC-MD scientists (part time) and several FC-MD students (full time), as well as, two APL software architects (part time), and one NASA POC (part time). The PI and FC-MD scientists together with APL architects were responsible for requirements analysis, and for applying and evaluating the Dyn-SAVE tool and method. The PI and a group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for improving the method and conducting outreach activities, while another group of FC-MD scientists were responsible for development and improvement of the tool. Oversight and reporting was conducted by the PI and NASA POC. The project team produced many results including several prototypes of the Dyn-SAVE tool and method, several case studies documenting how the tool and method was applied to APL s software systems, and several published papers in highly respected conferences and journals. Dyn-SAVE as developed and enhanced throughout this research period, is a software tool intended for software developers and architects, software integration testers, and persons who need to analyze software systems from the point of view of how it communicates with other systems. Using the tool, the user specifies the planned communication behavior of the system modeled as a sequence diagram. The user then captures and imports the actual communication behavior of the system, which is then converted and visualized as a sequence diagram by Dyn-SAVE. After mapping the planned to the actual and specifying parameter and timing constraints, Dyn-SAVE detects and highlights deviations between the planned and the actual behavior. Requirements based on the need to analyze two inter-system

  15. Statistical tools for prognostics and health management of complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, David H; Huzurbazar, Aparna V; Anderson - Cook, Christine M

    2010-01-01

    Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) is increasingly important for understanding and managing today's complex systems. These systems are typically mission- or safety-critical, expensive to replace, and operate in environments where reliability and cost-effectiveness are a priority. We present background on PHM and a suite of applicable statistical tools and methods. Our primary focus is on predicting future states of the system (e.g., the probability of being operational at a future time, or the expected remaining system life) using heterogeneous data from a variety of sources. We discuss component reliability models incorporating physical understanding, condition measurements from sensors, and environmental covariates; system reliability models that allow prediction of system failure time distributions from component failure models; and the use of Bayesian techniques to incorporate expert judgments into component and system models.

  16. Cognitive robotic system for learning of complex visual stimuli

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potapov, A. S.; Rozhkov, A. S.

    2013-05-01

    The problem of learning of complex visual stimuli in cognitive robotics is considered. These stimuli should be selected on the base of rules supporting arbitrary comparisons of stimulus features with features of other salient objects (context). New perceptual knowledge representation based on the predicate logic is implemented to express such rules. Computable predicates are provided by low-level vision system. The rules are constructed using genetic algorithms on the base of a set of examples obtained by a robot during consequent trials. Dependence between the number of necessary trials and rule complexity is studied.

  17. Complex vibration ultrasonic welding systems with large area welding tips.

    PubMed

    Tsujino, Jiromaru; Sano, Tsutomu; Ogata, Hayato; Tanaka, Soichi; Harada, Yoshiki

    2002-05-01

    Vibration and welding characteristics of complex vibration ultrasonic welding systems of 27 and 40 kHz were studied. Complex vibration systems, which have elliptical to circular or rectangular to square locus, are effective for ultrasonic welding of various specimens including the same and different metal specimens, and for direct welding of semiconductor tips and packaging of various electronic devices without solder. The complex vibration systems consist of a one-dimensional longitudinal-torsional vibration converter with slitted part, a stepped horn and a longitudinal vibration transducer as a driving source. The complex vibration welding tips of 27 and 40 kHz have enough area of 6-8 mm square for various welding specimens. Aluminum plate specimens of 0.3-1.0 mm thickness were successfully joined with weld strengths almost equal to aluminum specimen strength, and independent to the specimen direction. Required vibration amplitude of 40 kHz is smaller than that of 27 kHz. PMID:12159965

  18. Topics in Complexity: From Physical to Life Science Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charry, Pedro David Manrique

    Complexity seeks to unwrap the mechanisms responsible for collective phenomena across the physical, biological, chemical, economic and social sciences. This thesis investigates real-world complex dynamical systems ranging from the quantum/natural domain to the social domain. The following novel understandings are developed concerning these systems' out-of-equilibrium and nonlinear behavior. Standard quantum techniques show divergent outcomes when a quantum system comprising more than one subunit is far from thermodynamic equilibrium. Abnormal photon inter-arrival times help fulfill the metabolic needs of a terrestrial photosynthetic bacterium. Spatial correlations within incident light can act as a driving mechanism for an organism's adaptation toward more ordered structures. The group dynamics of non-identical objects, whose assembly rules depend on mutual heterogeneity, yield rich transition dynamics between isolation and cohesion, with the cohesion regime reproducing a particular universal pattern commonly found in many real-world systems. Analyses of covert networks reveal collective gender superiority in the connectivity that provides benefits for system robustness and survival. Nodal migration in a network generates complex contagion profiles that lie beyond traditional approaches and yet resemble many modern-day outbreaks.

  19. Probabilistic Analysis Techniques Applied to Complex Spacecraft Power System Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hojnicki, Jeffrey S.; Rusick, Jeffrey J.

    2005-01-01

    Electric power system performance predictions are critical to spacecraft, such as the International Space Station (ISS), to ensure that sufficient power is available to support all the spacecraft s power needs. In the case of the ISS power system, analyses to date have been deterministic, meaning that each analysis produces a single-valued result for power capability because of the complexity and large size of the model. As a result, the deterministic ISS analyses did not account for the sensitivity of the power capability to uncertainties in model input variables. Over the last 10 years, the NASA Glenn Research Center has developed advanced, computationally fast, probabilistic analysis techniques and successfully applied them to large (thousands of nodes) complex structural analysis models. These same techniques were recently applied to large, complex ISS power system models. This new application enables probabilistic power analyses that account for input uncertainties and produce results that include variations caused by these uncertainties. Specifically, N&R Engineering, under contract to NASA, integrated these advanced probabilistic techniques with Glenn s internationally recognized ISS power system model, System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation (SPACE).

  20. Complex systems and the technology of variability analysis.

    PubMed

    Seely, Andrew J E; Macklem, Peter T

    2004-12-01

    Characteristic patterns of variation over time, namely rhythms, represent a defining feature of complex systems, one that is synonymous with life. Despite the intrinsic dynamic, interdependent and nonlinear relationships of their parts, complex biological systems exhibit robust systemic stability. Applied to critical care, it is the systemic properties of the host response to a physiological insult that manifest as health or illness and determine outcome in our patients. Variability analysis provides a novel technology with which to evaluate the overall properties of a complex system. This review highlights the means by which we scientifically measure variation, including analyses of overall variation (time domain analysis, frequency distribution, spectral power), frequency contribution (spectral analysis), scale invariant (fractal) behaviour (detrended fluctuation and power law analysis) and regularity (approximate and multiscale entropy). Each technique is presented with a definition, interpretation, clinical application, advantages, limitations and summary of its calculation. The ubiquitous association between altered variability and illness is highlighted, followed by an analysis of how variability analysis may significantly improve prognostication of severity of illness and guide therapeutic intervention in critically ill patients. PMID:15566580

  1. Formal Requirements-Based Programming for Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rash, James L.; Hinchey, Michael G.; Rouff, Christopher A.; Gracanin, Denis

    2005-01-01

    Computer science as a field has not yet produced a general method to mechanically transform complex computer system requirements into a provably equivalent implementation. Such a method would be one major step towards dealing with complexity in computing, yet it remains the elusive holy grail of system development. Currently available tools and methods that start with a formal model of a system and mechanically produce a provably equivalent implementation are valuable but not sufficient. The gap that such tools and methods leave unfilled is that the formal models cannot be proven to be equivalent to the system requirements as originated by the customer For the classes of complex systems whose behavior can be described as a finite (but significant) set of scenarios, we offer a method for mechanically transforming requirements (expressed in restricted natural language, or appropriate graphical notations) into a provably equivalent formal model that can be used as the basis for code generation and other transformations. While other techniques are available, this method is unique in offering full mathematical tractability while using notations and techniques that are well known and well trusted. We illustrate the application of the method to an example procedure from the Hubble Robotic Servicing Mission currently under study and preliminary formulation at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center.

  2. Looking the World from Inside:. Intrinsic Geometry of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boi, L.

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we shall address some meeting points between geometry and biology, in order to show that geometrical things and transformations take part intrinsically in the living systems. We focus on some features of macromolecular structures like DNA-proteins complexes. All things we speak about take place in the 3-dimensional space of a living cell and particularly in its nucleus, which of course interacts in many ways and at different levels with the whole cell, its cytoplasm and the organelles. Ideally, we think we should rather consider, instead of a 3-dimensional space, a configuration space characterized by all its phase spaces, since a living being is a very complex dynamical system, but this would be a too difficult, impossible task. This is of course a very partial view, an oversimplification, of what really happen in our organisms. Nevertheless, We believe that in biology we are today facing the following problem: how small or local changes in a living system do affect the global behaviour and response of the whole organisms? We search for an answer by arguing that mostly overall features of living systems are emergent properties of organization and regulation defined at the macroscopic level of their morphology and physiological behaviours, and also by showing that in complex living systems self-organization ensures robustness without loss of plasticity, in the sense that perturbations in the interactions properties of its single parts generally do not have damaging consequences on the living form as a whole.

  3. The simple fly larval visual system can process complex images.

    PubMed

    Justice, Elizabeth Daubert; Macedonia, Nicholas James; Hamilton, Catherine; Condron, Barry

    2012-01-01

    Animals that have simple eyes are thought to only detect crude visual detail such as light level. However, predatory insect larvae using a small number of visual inputs seem to distinguish complex image targets. Here we show that Drosophila melanogaster larvae, which have 12 photoreceptor cells per hemisphere, are attracted to distinct motions of other, tethered larvae and that this recognition requires the visual system but not the olfactory system. In addition, attraction to tethered larvae still occurs across a clear plastic barrier, does not occur significantly in the dark and attraction occurs to a computer screen movie of larval motion. By altering the artificial attractant movie, we conclude that visual recognition involves both spatial and temporal components. Our results demonstrate that a simple but experimentally tractable visual system can distinguish complex images and that processing in the relatively large central brain may compensate for the simple input. PMID:23093193

  4. Complex Features in Lotka-Volterra Systems with Behavioral Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tebaldi, Claudio; Lacitignola, Deborah

    Lotka-Volterra systems have played a fundamental role for mathematical modelling in many branches of theoretical biology and proved to describe, at least qualitatively, the essential features of many phenomena, see for example Murray [Murray 2002]. Furthermore models of that kind have been considered successfully also in quite different and less mathematically formalized context: Goodwin' s model of economic growth cycles [Goodwin 1967] and urban dynamics [Dendrinos 1992] are only two of a number of examples. Such systems can certainly be defined as complex ones and in fact the aim of modelling was essentially to clarify mechanims rather than to provide actual precise simulations and predictions. With regards to complex systems, we recall that one of their main feature, no matter of the specific definition one has in mind, is adaptation, i. e. the ability to adjust.

  5. Computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kudinov, I. V.; Kolesnikov, S. V.; Eremin, A. V.; Branfileva, A. N.

    2013-11-01

    This paper describes the principal theoretical concepts of the method used for constructing computer models of complex multiloop branched pipeline networks, and this method is based on the theory of graphs and two Kirchhoff's laws applied to electrical circuits. The models make it possible to calculate velocities, flow rates, and pressures of a fluid medium in any section of pipeline networks, when the latter are considered as single hydraulic systems. On the basis of multivariant calculations the reasons for existing problems can be identified, the least costly methods of their elimination can be proposed, and recommendations for planning the modernization of pipeline systems and construction of their new sections can be made. The results obtained can be applied to complex pipeline systems intended for various purposes (water pipelines, petroleum pipelines, etc.). The operability of the model has been verified on an example of designing a unified computer model of the heat network for centralized heat supply of the city of Samara.

  6. Systems Engineering Metrics: Organizational Complexity and Product Quality Modeling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mog, Robert A.

    1997-01-01

    Innovative organizational complexity and product quality models applicable to performance metrics for NASA-MSFC's Systems Analysis and Integration Laboratory (SAIL) missions and objectives are presented. An intensive research effort focuses on the synergistic combination of stochastic process modeling, nodal and spatial decomposition techniques, organizational and computational complexity, systems science and metrics, chaos, and proprietary statistical tools for accelerated risk assessment. This is followed by the development of a preliminary model, which is uniquely applicable and robust for quantitative purposes. Exercise of the preliminary model using a generic system hierarchy and the AXAF-I architectural hierarchy is provided. The Kendall test for positive dependence provides an initial verification and validation of the model. Finally, the research and development of the innovation is revisited, prior to peer review. This research and development effort results in near-term, measurable SAIL organizational and product quality methodologies, enhanced organizational risk assessment and evolutionary modeling results, and 91 improved statistical quantification of SAIL productivity interests.

  7. Structural limits for evolutive capacities in complex molecular systems.

    PubMed

    Bergareche, A M; Ostolaza, J F

    1990-01-01

    The possibilities of evolution for a system with and without a code of translation from nucleic acids into proteins are evaluated. Our interest is mainly centred on the enzymatic RNA case since this molecule has, at the same time, reproductive and functional properties. After scanning the evolutive capacities of the enzymatic RNAs, including the possibility to play the role of "synthetase" which would match nucleic acids with amino acids as a transition step towards a code, we will try to show that due to their own functional limitative factors, the matching system (code) is necessary. This would be the only way to transform the formal complexity--complexity which has not entered into action before the translation process--into functional information to drive the instructive self-reproductive process. Once this stage is reached, the system could evolve without a limit. PMID:1707552

  8. Control of complex dynamics and chaos in distributed parameter systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chakravarti, S.; Marek, M.; Ray, W.H.

    1995-12-31

    This paper discusses a methodology for controlling complex dynamics and chaos in distributed parameter systems. The reaction-diffusion system with Brusselator kinetics, where the torus-doubling or quasi-periodic (two characteristic incommensurate frequencies) route to chaos exists in a defined range of parameter values, is used as an example. Poincare maps are used for characterization of quasi-periodic and chaotic attractors. The dominant modes or topos, which are inherent properties of the system, are identified by means of the Singular Value Decomposition. Tested modal feedback control schemas based on identified dominant spatial modes confirm the possibility of stabilization of simple quasi-periodic trajectories in the complex quasi-periodic or chaotic spatiotemporal patterns.

  9. A duality framework for stochastic optimal control of complex systems

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Malikopoulos, Andreas A.

    2016-01-01

    In this study, we address the problem of minimizing the long-run expected average cost of a complex system consisting of interactive subsystems. We formulate a multiobjective optimization problem of the one-stage expected costs of the subsystems and provide a duality framework to prove that the control policy yielding the Pareto optimal solution minimizes the average cost criterion of the system. We provide the conditions of existence and a geometric interpretation of the solution. For practical situations having constraints consistent with those studied here, our results imply that the Pareto control policy may be of value when we seek to derivemore » online the optimal control policy in complex systems.« less

  10. A Complex Systems Model Approach to Quantified Mineral Resource Appraisal

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gettings, M.E.; Bultman, M.W.; Fisher, F.S.

    2004-01-01

    For federal and state land management agencies, mineral resource appraisal has evolved from value-based to outcome-based procedures wherein the consequences of resource development are compared with those of other management options. Complex systems modeling is proposed as a general framework in which to build models that can evaluate outcomes. Three frequently used methods of mineral resource appraisal (subjective probabilistic estimates, weights of evidence modeling, and fuzzy logic modeling) are discussed to obtain insight into methods of incorporating complexity into mineral resource appraisal models. Fuzzy logic and weights of evidence are most easily utilized in complex systems models. A fundamental product of new appraisals is the production of reusable, accessible databases and methodologies so that appraisals can easily be repeated with new or refined data. The data are representations of complex systems and must be so regarded if all of their information content is to be utilized. The proposed generalized model framework is applicable to mineral assessment and other geoscience problems. We begin with a (fuzzy) cognitive map using (+1,0,-1) values for the links and evaluate the map for various scenarios to obtain a ranking of the importance of various links. Fieldwork and modeling studies identify important links and help identify unanticipated links. Next, the links are given membership functions in accordance with the data. Finally, processes are associated with the links; ideally, the controlling physical and chemical events and equations are found for each link. After calibration and testing, this complex systems model is used for predictions under various scenarios.

  11. Human Balance System: A Complex Coordination of Central and Peripheral Systems

    MedlinePlus

    ... 8428 · INFO @ VESTIBULAR . ORG · WWW . VESTIBULAR . ORG The Human Balance System — A Complex Coordination of Central and ... support. 1 A properly functioning balance system allows humans to see clearly while moving, identify orientation with ...

  12. "Health for All" in England and Brazil?

    PubMed

    Duncan, Peter; Bertolozzi, Maria Rita; Cowley, Sarah; Egry, Emiko Yoshikawa; Chiesa, Anna Maria; de Siqueira França, Francisco Oscar

    2015-01-01

    This article discusses the achievements and challenges that England and Brazil face in relation to their capacity to address inequalities in health through health promotion and public health policies. Using secondary data (policy texts and related documents), this article contextualizes, explains, and critically appraises health promotion and public health efforts for the reduction of inequalities in health in the 2 countries. A historic documentary analysis was undertaken, with hermeneutics as the methodological framework. The global economic crisis has prompted the so-called developed economies of Europe to reconsider their economic and social priorities. England represents a state facing this kind of challenge. Equally, Brazil is assuming new positions not only on the world stage but also in terms of the relationship it has with its citizens and the priorities it has for state welfare. The United Kingdom continues to finance a health care system allowing universal access in the form of the National Health Service, and state concern about the public health task of reducing inequalities has recently been underlined in policy. For Brazil, although there have been recent achievements related to population access to healthcare, challenges continue, especially with regard to the quality of care. PMID:26077860

  13. Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) Facilities Sprinkler System Hydraulic Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    KERSTEN, J.K.

    2003-07-11

    The attached calculations demonstrate sprinkler system operational water requirements as determined by hydraulic analysis. Hydraulic calculations for the waste storage buildings of the Central Waste Complex (CWC), T Plant, and Waste Receiving and Packaging (WRAP) facility are based upon flow testing performed by Fire Protection Engineers from the Hanford Fire Marshal's office. The calculations received peer review and approval prior to release. The hydraulic analysis program HASS Computer Program' (under license number 1609051210) is used to perform all analyses contained in this document. Hydraulic calculations demonstrate sprinkler system operability based upon each individual system design and available water supply under the most restrictive conditions.

  14. The Complex Economic System of Supply Chain Financing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Lili; Yan, Guangle

    Supply Chain Financing (SCF) refers to a series of innovative and complicated financial services based on supply chain. The SCF set-up is a complex system, where the supply chain management and Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) financing services interpenetrate systematically. This paper establishes the organization structure of SCF System, and presents two financing models respectively, with or without the participation of the third-party logistic provider (3PL). Using Information Economics and Game Theory, the interrelationship among diverse economic sectors is analyzed, and the economic mechanism of development and existent for SCF system is demonstrated. New thoughts and approaches to solve SMEs financing problem are given.

  15. A complexity classification of spin systems with an external field

    PubMed Central

    Goldberg, Leslie Ann; Jerrum, Mark

    2015-01-01

    We study the computational complexity of approximating the partition function of a q-state spin system with an external field. There are just three possible levels of computational difficulty, depending on the interaction strengths between adjacent spins: (i) efficiently exactly computable, (ii) equivalent to the ferromagnetic Ising model, and (iii) equivalent to the antiferromagnetic Ising model. Thus, every nontrivial q-state spin system, irrespective of the number q of spins, is computationally equivalent to one of two fundamental two-state spin systems. PMID:26443859

  16. 2. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking north. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    2. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking north. The Components Test Laboratory (T-27) is located in the immediate foreground. Immediately uphill to the left of T-27 is the Boiler Chiller Plant (T-28H). To the left of T-28H is the Oxidizer Conditioning Structure (T-28D). Behind the T-28D is the Long-Term Oxidizer Silo (T-28B). The twin gantry structure at the left is the Systems Integration Laboratory (T-28). - Air Force Plant PJKS, Systems Integration Laboratory, Waterton Canyon Road & Colorado Highway 121, Lakewood, Jefferson County, CO

  17. 1. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking northwest. ...

    Library of Congress Historic Buildings Survey, Historic Engineering Record, Historic Landscapes Survey

    1. View, structures in Systems Integration Laboratory complex, looking northwest. The twin gantry structure in the center is the Systems Integration Laboratory (T-28). To its immediate left in the foreground is a truck well, concrete retaining wall, piping, and stack associated with the oxidizer vault storage area. To the immediate right of T-28 is the concrete Signal Transfer Building (T-28A). At the extreme right is the Long-Term Hydrazine Silo (T-28E). - Air Force Plant PJKS, Systems Integration Laboratory, Waterton Canyon Road & Colorado Highway 121, Lakewood, Jefferson County, CO

  18. New England Compounding Center Indictment.

    PubMed

    Cabaleiro, Joe

    2015-01-01

    This article is a review of the lapses in compliance with United States Pharmacopeia standards and pharmacy law as alleged by the New England Compounding Center indictment. This indictment was a result of an outbreak of fungal meningitis traced to fungal contamination of compounded methylprednisolone suspension for epidural steroid injections. This article is also intended as a gap analysis for compounders to review compliance at their own facility, and, if necessary, take the appropriate steps to implement best practices. PMID:26685489

  19. From precision polymers to complex materials and systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lutz, Jean-François; Lehn, Jean-Marie; Meijer, E. W.; Matyjaszewski, Krzysztof

    2016-05-01

    Complex chemical systems, such as living biological matter, are highly organized structures based on discrete molecules in constant dynamic interactions. These natural materials can evolve and adapt to their environment. By contrast, man-made materials exhibit simpler properties. In this Review, we highlight that most of the necessary elements for the development of more complex synthetic matter are available today. Using modern strategies, such as controlled radical polymerizations, supramolecular polymerizations or stepwise synthesis, polymers with precisely controlled molecular structures can be synthesized. Moreover, such tailored polymers can be folded or self-assembled into defined nanoscale morphologies. These self-organized macromolecular objects can be at thermal equilibrium or can be driven out of equilibrium. Recently, in the latter case, interesting dynamic materials have been developed. However, this is just a start, and more complex adaptive materials are anticipated.

  20. Decision support systems and methods for complex networks

    DOEpatents

    Huang, Zhenyu; Wong, Pak Chung; Ma, Jian; Mackey, Patrick S; Chen, Yousu; Schneider, Kevin P

    2012-02-28

    Methods and systems for automated decision support in analyzing operation data from a complex network. Embodiments of the present invention utilize these algorithms and techniques not only to characterize the past and present condition of a complex network, but also to predict future conditions to help operators anticipate deteriorating and/or problem situations. In particular, embodiments of the present invention characterize network conditions from operation data using a state estimator. Contingency scenarios can then be generated based on those network conditions. For at least a portion of all of the contingency scenarios, risk indices are determined that describe the potential impact of each of those scenarios. Contingency scenarios with risk indices are presented visually as graphical representations in the context of a visual representation of the complex network. Analysis of the historical risk indices based on the graphical representations can then provide trends that allow for prediction of future network conditions.

  1. Complex Morphological Variability in Complex Evaporitic Systems: Thermal Spring Snails from the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Carol M.; Roopnarine, Peter D.

    2003-11-01

    Thermal springs in evaporitic environments provide a unique biological laboratory in which to study natural selection and evolutionary diversification. These isolated systems may be an analogue for conditions in early Earth or Mars history. One modern example of such a system can be found in the Chihuahuan Desert of north-central Mexico. The Cuatro Cienegas basin hosts a series of thermal springs that form a complex of aquatic ecosystems under a range of environmental conditions. Using landmark-based morphometric techniques, we have quantified an unusually high level of morphological variability in the endemic gastropod Mexipyrgus from Cuatro Cienegas. The differentiation is seen both within and between hydrological systems. Our results suggest that this type of environmental system is capable of producing and maintaining a high level of morphological diversity on small spatial scales, and thus should be a target for future astrobiological research.

  2. Complex morphological variability in complex evaporitic systems: thermal spring snails from the Chihuahuan Desert, Mexico.

    PubMed

    Tang, Carol M; Roopnarine, Peter D

    2003-01-01

    Thermal springs in evaporitic environments provide a unique biological laboratory in which to study natural selection and evolutionary diversification. These isolated systems may be an analogue for conditions in early Earth or Mars history. One modern example of such a system can be found in the Chihuahuan Desert of north-central Mexico. The Cuatro Cienegas basin hosts a series of thermal springs that form a complex of aquatic ecosystems under a range of environmental conditions. Using landmark-based morphometric techniques, we have quantified an unusually high level of morphological variability in the endemic gastropod Mexipyrgus from Cuatro Cienegas. The differentiation is seen both within and between hydrological systems. Our results suggest that this type of environmental system is capable of producing and maintaining a high level of morphological diversity on small spatial scales, and thus should be a target for future astrobiological research. PMID:14678668

  3. High Dynamic Range Complex Impedance Measurement System for Petrophysical Usage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, R.; He, X.; Yao, H.; Tan, S.; Shi, H.; Shen, R.; Yan, C.; Zeng, P.; He, L.; Qiao, N.; Xi, F.; Zhang, H.; Xie, J.

    2015-12-01

    Spectral induced polarization method (SIP) or complex resistivity method is increasing its application in metalliferous ore exploration, hydrocarbon exploration, underground water exploration, monitoring of environment pollution, and the evaluation of environment remediation. And the measurement of complex resistivity or complex impedance of rock/ore sample and polluted water plays a fundamental role in improving the application effect of SIP and the application scope of SIP. However, current instruments can't guaranty the accuracy of measurement when the resistance of sample is less than 10Ω or great than 100kΩ. A lot of samples, such as liquid, polluted sea water, igneous rock, limestone, and sandstone, can't be measured with reliable complex resistivity result. Therefore, this problem projects a shadow in the basic research and application research of SIP. We design a high precision measurement system from the study of measurement principle, sample holder, and measurement instrument. We design input buffers in a single board. We adopt operation amplifier AD549 in this system because of its ultra-high input impedance and ultra-low current noise. This buffer is good in acquiring potential signal across high impedance sample. By analyzing the sources of measurement error and errors generated by the measurement system, we propose a correction method to remove the error in order to achieve high quality complex impedance measurement for rock and ore samples. This measurement system can improve the measurement range of the complex impedance to 0.1 Ω ~ 10 GΩ with amplitude error less than 0.1% and phase error less than 0.1mrad when frequency ranges as 0.01 Hz ~ 1 kHz. We tested our system on resistors with resistance as 0.1Ω ~ 10 GΩ in frequency range as 1 Hz ~ 1000 Hz, and the measurement error is less than 0.1 mrad. We also compared the result with LCR bridge and SCIP, we can find that the bridge's measuring range only reaches 100 MΩ, SCIP's measuring range

  4. Complexity analysis and parameter estimation of dynamic metabolic systems.

    PubMed

    Tian, Li-Ping; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Wu, Fang-Xiang

    2013-01-01

    A metabolic system consists of a number of reactions transforming molecules of one kind into another to provide the energy that living cells need. Based on the biochemical reaction principles, dynamic metabolic systems can be modeled by a group of coupled differential equations which consists of parameters, states (concentration of molecules involved), and reaction rates. Reaction rates are typically either polynomials or rational functions in states and constant parameters. As a result, dynamic metabolic systems are a group of differential equations nonlinear and coupled in both parameters and states. Therefore, it is challenging to estimate parameters in complex dynamic metabolic systems. In this paper, we propose a method to analyze the complexity of dynamic metabolic systems for parameter estimation. As a result, the estimation of parameters in dynamic metabolic systems is reduced to the estimation of parameters in a group of decoupled rational functions plus polynomials (which we call improper rational functions) or in polynomials. Furthermore, by taking its special structure of improper rational functions, we develop an efficient algorithm to estimate parameters in improper rational functions. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of parameters in a dynamic metabolic system. The simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method. PMID:24233242

  5. Enduring the shipboard stressor complex: a systems approach.

    PubMed

    Comperatore, Carlos A; Rivera, Pik Kwan; Kingsley, Leonard

    2005-06-01

    A high incidence of physiological and psychological stressors characterizes the maritime work environment in many segments of the commercial maritime industry and in the military. Traditionally, crewmembers work embedded in a complex of stressors. Stressors rarely act independently because most occur concurrently, simultaneously taxing physical and mental resources. Stressors such as extreme environmental temperatures, long work hours, heavy mental and physical workload, authoritative leadership, isolation from family and loved ones, lack of exercise, and unhealthy diets often combine to degrade crewmember health and performance, particularly on long voyages. This complex system of interacting stressors affects the ability of maritime crewmembers to maintain adequate levels of alertness and performance. An analytical systems approach methodology is described here as a viable method to identify workplace stressors and track their systemic interactions. A systems-based program for managing the stressor complex is then offered, together with the empirical research supporting its efficacy. Included is an example implementation of a stressor-control program aboard a U.S. Coast Guard cutter. PMID:15943203

  6. Trust, Nostalgia and Narrative Accounts of Blood Banking in England in the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Busby, Helen Wynne

    2010-01-01

    Historically, cultural accounts and descriptions of blood banking in Britain have been associated with notions of altruism, national solidarity and imagined community. While these ideals have continued to be influential, the business of procuring and supplying blood has become increasingly complex. Drawing on interview data with donors in one blood centre in England, this article reports that these donors tend not to acknowledge the complex dynamics of production and exchange in modern blood systems. This, it is argued, is congruent with nostalgic narratives in both popular and official accounts of blood services, which tend to bracket these important changes. A shift to a more open institutional narrative about modern blood services is advocated, as blood services face current and future challenges. PMID:20603307

  7. 75 FR 16096 - New England Power Generators Association Inc., Complainant v. ISO New England Inc., Respondent...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-03-31

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission New England Power Generators Association Inc., Complainant v. ISO New... Generators Association Inc. (Complainant) filed a formal complaint against ISO New England Inc....

  8. Complex organics in space from Solar System to distant galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwok, Sun

    2016-02-01

    Recent observational and experimental evidence for the presence of complex organics in space is reviewed. Remote astronomical observations have detected ˜ 200 gas-phased molecules through their rotational and vibrational transitions. Many classes of organic molecules are represented in this list, including some precursors to biological molecules. A number of unidentified spectral phenomena observed in the interstellar medium are likely to have originated from complex organics. The observations of these features in distant galaxies suggests that organic synthesis had already taken place during the early epochs of the Universe. In the Solar System, almost all biologically relevant molecules can be found in the soluble component of carbonaceous meteorites. Complex organics of mixed aromatic and aliphatic structures are present in the insoluble component of meteorites. Hydrocarbons cover much of the surface of the planetary satellite Titan and complex organics are found in comets and interplanetary dust particles. The possibility that the early Solar System, or even the early Earth, have been enriched by interstellar organics is discussed.

  9. Toward the quality evaluation of complex information systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todoran, Ion-George; Lecornu, Laurent; Khenchaf, Ali; Le Caillec, Jean-Marc

    2014-06-01

    Recent technological evolutions and developments allow gathering huge amounts of data stemmed from different types of sensors, social networks, intelligence reports, distributed databases, etc. Data quantity and heterogeneity imposed the evolution necessity of the information systems. Nowadays the information systems are based on complex information processing techniques at multiple processing stages. Unfortunately, possessing large quantities of data and being able to implement complex algorithms do not guarantee that the extracted information will be of good quality. The decision-makers need good quality information in the process of decision-making. We insist that for a decision-maker the information and the information quality, viewed as a meta-information, are of great importance. A system not proposing to its user the information quality is in danger of not being correctly used or in more dramatic cases not to be used at all. In literature, especially in organizations management and in information retrieval, can be found some information quality evaluation methodologies. But none of these do not allow the information quality evaluation in complex and changing environments. We propose a new information quality methodology capable of estimating the information quality dynamically with data changes and/or with the information system inner changes. Our methodology is able to instantaneously update the system's output quality. For capturing the information quality changes through the system, we introduce the notion of quality transfer function. It is equivalent to the signal processing transfer function but working on the quality level. The quality transfer function describes the influence of a processing module over the information quality. We also present two different views over the notion of information quality: a global one, characterizing the entire system and a local one, for each processing module.

  10. Character change of New England snow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huntington, T.G.; Hodgkins, G.A.; Keim, B.D.; Dudley, R.W.

    2004-01-01

    The annual ratio of snow to total precipitation (S/P) for 11 out of 21 US Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) sites in New England decreased significantly from 1949 through 2000. One possible explanation for the observed decrease in S/P ratio is that their temperature increased in New England during the 20th century. The results are consistent with published reports indicating lengthening of the growing season in New England.

  11. Loschmidt echo and time reversal in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Goussev, Arseni; Jalabert, Rodolfo A; Pastawski, Horacio M; Wisniacki, Diego A

    2016-06-13

    Echoes are ubiquitous phenomena in several branches of physics, ranging from acoustics, optics, condensed matter and cold atoms to geophysics. They are at the base of a number of very useful experimental techniques, such as nuclear magnetic resonance, photon echo and time-reversal mirrors. Particularly interesting physical effects are obtained when the echo studies are performed on complex systems, either classically chaotic, disordered or many-body. Consequently, the term Loschmidt echo has been coined to designate and quantify the revival occurring when an imperfect time-reversal procedure is applied to a complex quantum system, or equivalently to characterize the stability of quantum evolution in the presence of perturbations. Here, we present the articles which discuss the work that has shaped the field in the past few years. PMID:27140977

  12. Complex dynamics in a prey predator system with multiple delays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gakkhar, Sunita; Singh, Anuraj

    2012-02-01

    The complex dynamics is explored in a prey predator system with multiple delays. Holling type-II functional response is assumed for prey dynamics. The predator dynamics is governed by modified Leslie-Gower scheme. The existence of periodic solutions via Hopf-bifurcation with respect to both delays are established. An algorithm is developed for drawing two-parametric bifurcation diagram with respect to two delays. The domain of stability with respect to τ1 and τ2 is thus obtained. The complex dynamical behavior of the system outside the domain of stability is evident from the exhaustive numerical simulation. Direction and stability of periodic solutions are also determined using normal form theory and center manifold argument.

  13. Carbohydrase Systems of Saccharophagus degradans Degrading Marine Complex Polysaccharides

    PubMed Central

    Hutcheson, Steven W.; Zhang, Haitao; Suvorov, Maxim

    2011-01-01

    Saccharophagus degradans 2–40 is a γ-subgroup proteobacterium capable of using many of the complex polysaccharides found in the marine environment for growth. To utilize these complex polysaccharides, this bacterium produces a plethora of carbohydrases dedicated to the processing of a carbohydrate class. Aiding in the identification of the contributing genes and enzymes is the known genome sequence for this bacterium. This review catalogs the genes and enzymes of the S. degradans genome that are likely to function in the systems for the utilization of agar, alginate, α- and β-glucans, chitin, mannans, pectins, and xylans and discusses the cell biology and genetics of each system as it functions to transfer carbon back to the bacterium. PMID:21731555

  14. Loschmidt echo and time reversal in complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Goussev, Arseni; Jalabert, Rodolfo A.; Pastawski, Horacio M.; Wisniacki, Diego A.

    2016-01-01

    Echoes are ubiquitous phenomena in several branches of physics, ranging from acoustics, optics, condensed matter and cold atoms to geophysics. They are at the base of a number of very useful experimental techniques, such as nuclear magnetic resonance, photon echo and time-reversal mirrors. Particularly interesting physical effects are obtained when the echo studies are performed on complex systems, either classically chaotic, disordered or many-body. Consequently, the term Loschmidt echo has been coined to designate and quantify the revival occurring when an imperfect time-reversal procedure is applied to a complex quantum system, or equivalently to characterize the stability of quantum evolution in the presence of perturbations. Here, we present the articles which discuss the work that has shaped the field in the past few years. PMID:27140977

  15. Complex adaptive systems and game theory: An unlikely union

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hadzikadic, M.; Carmichael, T.; Curtin, C.

    2010-01-01

    A Complex Adaptive System is a collection of autonomous, heterogeneous agents, whose behavior is defined with a limited number of rules. A Game Theory is a mathematical construct that assumes a small number of rational players who have a limited number of actions or strategies available to them. The CAS method has the potential to alleviate some of the shortcomings of GT. On the other hand, CAS researchers are always looking for a realistic way to define interactions among agents. GT offers an attractive option for defining the rules of such interactions in a way that is both potentially consistent with observed real-world behavior and subject to mathematical interpretation. This article reports on the results of an effort to build a CAS system that utilizes GT for determining the actions of individual agents. ?? 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 16,24-42, 2010.

  16. Prognosis of remaining useful life for complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Hines, J. W.; Usynin, A.; Urmanov, A.

    2006-07-01

    There has been a growing interest in extending conventional maintenance strategies, such as corrective and predictive maintenance, towards the implementations that would allow forecasting of system degradation through a prognostic procedure. The recent progress in sensor and computer technologies employed in complex engineering systems facilitates the integration of model-based and data-driven diagnostics and prognostics leading to condition-based maintenance and extended availability of equipment. This paper describes data-driven models and methods aimed at performing the tasks constituting the diagnostic/prognostic framework. The proposed models and methods allow performing Prognostic and Health Management (PHM) routines over a fleet of equipment populating complex engineering systems. Although several approaches to PHM implementation have been categorized in recently published literature, this paper focuses on PHM techniques associated with observing features related to anomalous system behavior. Observed anomalous patterns in the system behavior are considered to be precursors of impending failures. Measurements taken on the observed deviations are used to deduce a quantitative estimate of how long the system will stay within its specification-defined operational ranges. (authors)

  17. Thermodynamic model to describe miscibility in complex fluid systems

    SciTech Connect

    Guerrero, M.I.

    1982-01-01

    In the basic studies of tertiary oil recovery, it is necessary to describe the phase diagrams of mixtures of hydrocarbons, surfactants and brine. It has been observed that certain features of those phase diagrams, such as the appearance of 3-phase regions, can be correlated to ultra-low interfacial tensions. In this work, a simple thermodynamic model is described. The phase diagram obtained is qualitatively identical to that of real, more complex systems. 13 references.

  18. Complex gas/lift gathering system project in Nigeria

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1981-08-01

    A new gas lift and gathering system is located in the Makaraba oil field, Nigeria. It connects 12 wellheads to a flow station by a series of 6-in. pipelines and one 16-in. trunk-line. The complexity of the project was due to the swampy site conditions which necessitated all work being conducted with floating plant, including a specially made laybarge and amphibious swamp buggies.

  19. A Complex Systems Approach to Causal Discovery in Psychiatry

    PubMed Central

    Saxe, Glenn N.; Statnikov, Alexander; Fenyo, David; Ren, Jiwen; Li, Zhiguo; Prasad, Meera; Wall, Dennis; Bergman, Nora; Briggs, Ernestine C.; Aliferis, Constantin

    2016-01-01

    Conventional research methodologies and data analytic approaches in psychiatric research are unable to reliably infer causal relations without experimental designs, or to make inferences about the functional properties of the complex systems in which psychiatric disorders are embedded. This article describes a series of studies to validate a novel hybrid computational approach–the Complex Systems-Causal Network (CS-CN) method–designed to integrate causal discovery within a complex systems framework for psychiatric research. The CS-CN method was first applied to an existing dataset on psychopathology in 163 children hospitalized with injuries (validation study). Next, it was applied to a much larger dataset of traumatized children (replication study). Finally, the CS-CN method was applied in a controlled experiment using a ‘gold standard’ dataset for causal discovery and compared with other methods for accurately detecting causal variables (resimulation controlled experiment). The CS-CN method successfully detected a causal network of 111 variables and 167 bivariate relations in the initial validation study. This causal network had well-defined adaptive properties and a set of variables was found that disproportionally contributed to these properties. Modeling the removal of these variables resulted in significant loss of adaptive properties. The CS-CN method was successfully applied in the replication study and performed better than traditional statistical methods, and similarly to state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms in the causal detection experiment. The CS-CN method was validated, replicated, and yielded both novel and previously validated findings related to risk factors and potential treatments of psychiatric disorders. The novel approach yields both fine-grain (micro) and high-level (macro) insights and thus represents a promising approach for complex systems-oriented research in psychiatry. PMID:27028297

  20. The Socialization of Girls in the Secondary Schools of England and the Two Germanies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shafer, Susanne M.

    1976-01-01

    The socialization of girls in the secondary schools of England, West Germany, and East Germany provides an opportunity to compare the functionality of different curricular and structural arrangements in educational systems of technologically advanced nations. (Author)

  1. 78 FR 32384 - New England Power Generators Association v. ISO New England Inc.; Notice of Complaint

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-30

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission New England Power Generators Association v. ISO New England Inc.; Notice of... Federal Power Act (FPA), 16 U.S.C. 824(e), the New England Power Generators Association...

  2. Synchronization in human musical rhythms and mutually interacting complex systems

    PubMed Central

    Hennig, Holger

    2014-01-01

    Though the music produced by an ensemble is influenced by multiple factors, including musical genre, musician skill, and individual interpretation, rhythmic synchronization is at the foundation of musical interaction. Here, we study the statistical nature of the mutual interaction between two humans synchronizing rhythms. We find that the interbeat intervals of both laypeople and professional musicians exhibit scale-free (power law) cross-correlations. Surprisingly, the next beat to be played by one person is dependent on the entire history of the other person’s interbeat intervals on timescales up to several minutes. To understand this finding, we propose a general stochastic model for mutually interacting complex systems, which suggests a physiologically motivated explanation for the occurrence of scale-free cross-correlations. We show that the observed long-term memory phenomenon in rhythmic synchronization can be imitated by fractal coupling of separately recorded or synthesized audio tracks and thus applied in electronic music. Though this study provides an understanding of fundamental characteristics of timing and synchronization at the interbrain level, the mutually interacting complex systems model may also be applied to study the dynamics of other complex systems where scale-free cross-correlations have been observed, including econophysics, physiological time series, and collective behavior of animal flocks. PMID:25114228

  3. From structure to function via complex supramolecular dendrimer systems.

    PubMed

    Sun, Hao-Jan; Zhang, Shaodong; Percec, Virgil

    2015-06-21

    This tutorial review summarizes strategies elaborated for the discovery and prediction of programmed primary structures derived from quasi-equivalent constitutional isomeric libraries of self-assembling dendrons, dendrimers and dendronized polymers. These libraries demonstrate an 82% predictability, defined as the percentage of similar primary structures resulting in at least one conserved supramolecular shape with internal order. A combination of structural and retrostructural analysis that employs methodologies transplanted from structural biology, adapted to giant supramolecular assemblies was used for this process. A periodic table database of programmed primary structures was elaborated and used to facilitate the emergence of a diversity of functions in complex dendrimer systems via first principles. Assemblies generated by supramolecular and covalent polymer backbones were critically compared. Although by definition complex functional systems cannot be designed, this tutorial hints to a methodology based on database analysis principles to facilitate design principles that may help to mediate an accelerated emergence of chemical, physical and most probably also societal, political and economic complex systems on a shorter time scale and lower cost than by the current methods. This tutorial review is limited to the simplest, synthetically most accessible self-assembling minidendrons, minidendrimers and polymers dendronized with minidendrons that are best analyzed and elucidated at molecular, supramolecular and theoretical levels, and most used in other laboratories. These structures are all interrelated, and their principles expand in a simple way to their higher generations. PMID:25325787

  4. Mitotic Exit Control as an Evolved Complex System

    SciTech Connect

    Bosl, W; Li, R

    2005-04-25

    The exit from mitosis is the last critical decision a cell has to make during a division cycle. A complex regulatory system has evolved to evaluate the success of mitotic events and control this decision. Whereas outstanding genetic work in yeast has led to rapid discovery of a large number of interacting genes involved in the control of mitotic exit, it has also become increasingly difficult to comprehend the logic and mechanistic features embedded in the complex molecular network. Our view is that this difficulty stems in part from the attempt to explain mitotic exit control using concepts from traditional top-down engineering design, and that exciting new results from evolutionary engineering design applied to networks and electronic circuits may lend better insights. We focus on four particularly intriguing features of the mitotic exit control system: the two-stepped release of Cdc14; the self-activating nature of Tem1 GTPase; the spatial sensor associated with the spindle pole body; and the extensive redundancy in the mitotic exit network. We attempt to examine these design features from the perspective of evolutionary design and complex system engineering.

  5. Automated Derivation of Complex System Constraints from User Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Foshee, Mark; Murey, Kim; Marsh, Angela

    2010-01-01

    The Payload Operations Integration Center (POIC) located at the Marshall Space Flight Center has the responsibility of integrating US payload science requirements for the International Space Station (ISS). All payload operations must request ISS system resources so that the resource usage will be included in the ISS on-board execution timelines. The scheduling of resources and building of the timeline is performed using the Consolidated Planning System (CPS). The ISS resources are quite complex due to the large number of components that must be accounted for. The planners at the POIC simplify the process for Payload Developers (PD) by providing the PDs with a application that has the basic functionality PDs need as well as list of simplified resources in the User Requirements Collection (URC) application. The planners maintained a mapping of the URC resources to the CPS resources. The process of manually converting PD's science requirements from a simplified representation to a more complex CPS representation is a time-consuming and tedious process. The goal is to provide a software solution to allow the planners to build a mapping of the complex CPS constraints to the basic URC constraints and automatically convert the PD's requirements into systems requirements during export to CPS.

  6. Predictive modelling of complex agronomic and biological systems.

    PubMed

    Keurentjes, Joost J B; Molenaar, Jaap; Zwaan, Bas J

    2013-09-01

    Biological systems are tremendously complex in their functioning and regulation. Studying the multifaceted behaviour and describing the performance of such complexity has challenged the scientific community for years. The reduction of real-world intricacy into simple descriptive models has therefore convinced many researchers of the usefulness of introducing mathematics into biological sciences. Predictive modelling takes such an approach another step further in that it takes advantage of existing knowledge to project the performance of a system in alternating scenarios. The ever growing amounts of available data generated by assessing biological systems at increasingly higher detail provide unique opportunities for future modelling and experiment design. Here we aim to provide an overview of the progress made in modelling over time and the currently prevalent approaches for iterative modelling cycles in modern biology. We will further argue for the importance of versatility in modelling approaches, including parameter estimation, model reduction and network reconstruction. Finally, we will discuss the difficulties in overcoming the mathematical interpretation of in vivo complexity and address some of the future challenges lying ahead. PMID:23777295

  7. Complex Systems: From Nuclear Physics to Financial Markets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speth, Josef

    2003-04-01

    Complexity is an interdisciplinary concept which first of all addresses the question of how order emerges out of randomness. We discuss two natural complex systems, the nuclear many-body systems and the financial markets. In the nuclear physics case we investigate the chaos-driven decay of giant resonances, where collective states are embedded in complex spectra. In the case of financial markets we discuss the dynamics and correlations of stock and bond indices. The first important observation here is that such indices, e.g. DOW or S, like nuclei, have a finite number of constituents, and therefore one may ask similar questions and apply the same methods to these indices as to finite nuclei. A second, more speculative observation is that financial crashes may be the analogue of critical points in statistical mechanics. Criticality implies a scale invariance that can mathematically defined as: F(λ x) = γ F(x). The general solution of this equation accounts for continuous as well as discrete scale invariance, the latter giving rise to log-periodic modulations correcting the structureless pure power-law behavior. The existence of log-periodic oscillations has been observed in many different systems.We have identified such oscillations in financial markets at very different time scales and indices. This observation seems to have some predictive power.

  8. Modeling high-resolution broadband discourse in complex adaptive systems.

    PubMed

    Dooley, Kevin J; Corman, Steven R; McPhee, Robert D; Kuhn, Timothy

    2003-01-01

    Numerous researchers and practitioners have turned to complexity science to better understand human systems. Simulation can be used to observe how the microlevel actions of many human agents create emergent structures and novel behavior in complex adaptive systems. In such simulations, communication between human agents is often modeled simply as message passing, where a message or text may transfer data, trigger action, or inform context. Human communication involves more than the transmission of texts and messages, however. Such a perspective is likely to limit the effectiveness and insight that we can gain from simulations, and complexity science itself. In this paper, we propose a model of how close analysis of discursive processes between individuals (high-resolution), which occur simultaneously across a human system (broadband), dynamically evolve. We propose six different processes that describe how evolutionary variation can occur in texts-recontextualization, pruning, chunking, merging, appropriation, and mutation. These process models can facilitate the simulation of high-resolution, broadband discourse processes, and can aid in the analysis of data from such processes. Examples are used to illustrate each process. We make the tentative suggestion that discourse may evolve to the "edge of chaos." We conclude with a discussion concerning how high-resolution, broadband discourse data could actually be collected. PMID:12876447

  9. Statistical physics of networks, information and complex systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ecke, Robert E

    2009-01-01

    In this project we explore the mathematical methods and concepts of statistical physics that are fmding abundant applications across the scientific and technological spectrum from soft condensed matter systems and bio-infonnatics to economic and social systems. Our approach exploits the considerable similarity of concepts between statistical physics and computer science, allowing for a powerful multi-disciplinary approach that draws its strength from cross-fertilization and mUltiple interactions of researchers with different backgrounds. The work on this project takes advantage of the newly appreciated connection between computer science and statistics and addresses important problems in data storage, decoding, optimization, the infonnation processing properties of the brain, the interface between quantum and classical infonnation science, the verification of large software programs, modeling of complex systems including disease epidemiology, resource distribution issues, and the nature of highly fluctuating complex systems. Common themes that the project has been emphasizing are (i) neural computation, (ii) network theory and its applications, and (iii) a statistical physics approach to infonnation theory. The project's efforts focus on the general problem of optimization and variational techniques, algorithm development and infonnation theoretic approaches to quantum systems. These efforts are responsible for fruitful collaborations and the nucleation of science efforts that span multiple divisions such as EES, CCS, 0 , T, ISR and P. This project supports the DOE mission in Energy Security and Nuclear Non-Proliferation by developing novel infonnation science tools for communication, sensing, and interacting complex networks such as the internet or energy distribution system. The work also supports programs in Threat Reduction and Homeland Security.

  10. Management of complex long bone nonunions using limb reconstruction system

    PubMed Central

    Seenappa, Hiranya Kumar; Shukla, Manoj Kumar; Narasimhaiah, Muralidhar

    2013-01-01

    Background: Management of complex nonunions is difficult due to the presence of infection, deformities, shortening and multiple surgeries in the past. Complex nonunions are traditionally managed by Ilizarov fixation. The disadvantages of Ilizarov are poor patient compliance, inconvenience of the frame and difficult frame construction. We conducted a study on 30 long bone complex nonunions treated by the limb reconstruction system (LRS). Materials and Methods: Between April 2009 and September 2012, we treated 30 cases of complex nonunion of long bone with the LRS. 28 were male and 2 females. Average shortening was 5.06 cm and 14 cases presented with infected implants. Initially we managed with implant removal, radical debridement followed by fixation with the LRS. In 16 cases, corticotomy and lengthening was done. The average duration of treatment was 9.68 months. We compressed the fracture site at the rate of 0.25 mm per day for 1-2 weeks and distracted the corticotomy at the rate of 1 mm/day till lengthening was achieved. Result: The union occurred in 89.28% cases and eradication of infection in 91.66% cases. Average lengthening done was 4.57 cm. We had 79% excellent, 11% good and 10% poor bony result and fnctional result was excellent in 40% cases, good in 50% and failure in 10% cases using ASAMI scoring system. Conclusion: LRS is an alternative to the Ilizarov fixation in their management of complex nonunion of long bones. It is less cumbersome to the patient and more surgeon and patient friendly. PMID:24379467

  11. New Approach to the Simulation of Complex Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogdanov, Alexander; Degtyarev, Alexander; Korkhov, Vladimir

    2016-02-01

    The paper analyzes the problems of scalability of modern computational systems, and offers a new paradigm for solving complex problems on them. It implies (1) Creating a virtual computing cluster with shared virtual memory, (2) Selecting a representation for the problem that minimizes the interaction between computing threads and (3) Configuring the virtual computer system for optimal mapping of the pertinent algorithm on it. Arguments for optimizing virtual clusters are given and test results on them are shown. We discuss the challenges that can be addressed most effectively within the framework of the proposed approach.

  12. Discovering Recurring Anomalies in Text Reports Regarding Complex Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zane-Ulman, Brett; Srivastava, Ashok N.

    2005-01-01

    Many existing complex space systems have a significant amount of historical maintenance and problem data bases that are stored in unstructured text forms. For some platforms, these reports may be encoded as scanned images rather than even searchable text. The problem that we address in this paper is the discovery of recurring anomalies and relationships between different problem reports that may indicate larger systemic problems. We will illustrate our techniques on data from discrepancy reports regarding software anomalies in the Space Shuttle. These free text reports are written by a number of different penp!e, thus the emphasis and wording varies considerably.

  13. Simulations of Instabilities in Complex Valve and Feed Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy; Cavallo, Peter A.

    2006-01-01

    CFD analyses are playing an increasingly important role in identifying and characterizing flow induced instabilities in rocket engine test facilities and flight systems. In this paper, we analyze instability mechanisms that range from turbulent pressure fluctuations due to vortex shedding in structurally complex valve systems to flow resonance in plug cavities to large scale pressure fluctuations due to collapse of cavitation induced vapor clouds. Furthermore, we discuss simulations of transient behavior related to valve motion that can serve as guidelines for valve scheduling. Such predictions of valve response to varying flow conditions is of crucial importance to engine operation and testing.

  14. 76 FR 9756 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-22

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA236 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management..., 2011 to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  15. 76 FR 52640 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-23

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA653 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  16. 75 FR 62507 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-10-12

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XZ55 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management Council's (Council) Groundfish Committee will meet to consider actions affecting New England fisheries...

  17. 76 FR 78905 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-12-20

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA876 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations...

  18. 77 FR 27440 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-05-10

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting...), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management Council (Council) is... New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations from this group will...

  19. 76 FR 7548 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

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    2011-02-10

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA205 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations from...

  20. 76 FR 30306 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

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    2011-05-25

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA454 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management..., 2011 to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  1. 76 FR 17381 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-29

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA325 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management..., 2011, to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  2. 76 FR 9755 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-22

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN: 0648-XA233 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  3. 75 FR 41818 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-19

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN: 0648-XX63 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations from...

  4. 76 FR 9756 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-02-22

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA234 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations...

  5. 75 FR 31424 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-03

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XW78 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management..., 2010 to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  6. 77 FR 5774 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-06

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA980 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management..., to consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone...

  7. 76 FR 50183 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-12

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA635 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations...

  8. 75 FR 49466 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-08-13

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XY16 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management Council's (Council) Groundfish Committee will meet to consider actions affecting New England fisheries...

  9. 77 FR 17459 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-03-26

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XB106 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... consider actions affecting New England fisheries in the exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Recommendations...

  10. 76 FR 16619 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-03-24

    ... National Oeanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA318 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... England Fishery Management Council, 50 Water Street, Mill 2, Newburyport, MA 01950. FOR...

  11. 78 FR 30869 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-23

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC693 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... England Fishery Management Council, 50 Water Street, Mill 2, Newburyport, MA 01950. FOR...

  12. 77 FR 58982 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meeting

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-09-25

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XC256 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meeting. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... England Fishery Management Council, 50 Water Street, Mill 2, Newburyport, MA 01950. FOR...

  13. 76 FR 64073 - New England Fishery Management Council; Public Meetings

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-10-17

    ... National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration RIN 0648-XA763 New England Fishery Management Council... Administration (NOAA), Commerce. ACTION: Notice; public meetings. SUMMARY: The New England Fishery Management... locations, see SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION. Council address: New England Fishery Management Council, 50...

  14. A complex biological system: the fly's visual module.

    PubMed

    Baptista, Murilo S; de Almeida, Lirio O B; Slaets, Jan F W; Köberle, Roland; Grebogi, Celso

    2008-02-13

    Is the characterization of biological systems as complex systems in the mathematical sense a fruitful assertion? In this paper we argue in the affirmative, although obviously we do not attempt to confront all the issues raised by this question. We use the fly's visual system as an example and analyse our experimental results of one particular neuron in the fly's visual system from this point of view. We find that the motion-sensitive 'H1' neuron, which converts incoming signals into a sequence of identical pulses or 'spikes', encodes the information contained in the stimulus into an alphabet composed of a few letters. This encoding occurs on multilayered sets, one of the features attributed to complex systems. The conversion of intervals between consecutive occurrences of spikes into an alphabet requires us to construct a generating partition. This entails a one-to-one correspondence between sequences of spike intervals and words written in the alphabet. The alphabet dynamics is multifractal both with and without stimulus, though the multifractality increases with the stimulus entropy. This is in sharp contrast to models generating independent spike intervals, such as models using Poisson statistics, whose dynamics is monofractal. We embed the support of the probability measure, which describes the distribution of words written in this alphabet, in a two-dimensional space, whose topology can be reproduced by an M-shaped map. This map has positive Lyapunov exponents, indicating a chaotic-like encoding. PMID:17673416

  15. Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems

    PubMed Central

    Transtrum, Mark K.; Qiu, Peng

    2016-01-01

    The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior. PMID:27187545

  16. Informational analysis involving application of complex information system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ciupak, Clébia; Vanti, Adolfo Alberto; Balloni, Antonio José; Espin, Rafael

    The aim of the present research is performing an informal analysis for internal audit involving the application of complex information system based on fuzzy logic. The same has been applied in internal audit involving the integration of the accounting field into the information systems field. The technological advancements can provide improvements to the work performed by the internal audit. Thus we aim to find, in the complex information systems, priorities for the work of internal audit of a high importance Private Institution of Higher Education. The applied method is quali-quantitative, as from the definition of strategic linguistic variables it was possible to transform them into quantitative with the matrix intersection. By means of a case study, where data were collected via interview with the Administrative Pro-Rector, who takes part at the elaboration of the strategic planning of the institution, it was possible to infer analysis concerning points which must be prioritized at the internal audit work. We emphasize that the priorities were identified when processed in a system (of academic use). From the study we can conclude that, starting from these information systems, audit can identify priorities on its work program. Along with plans and strategic objectives of the enterprise, the internal auditor can define operational procedures to work in favor of the attainment of the objectives of the organization.

  17. Panpsychic organicism: Sewall Wright's philosophy for understanding complex genetic systems.

    PubMed

    Steffes, David M

    2007-01-01

    Sewall Wright first encountered the complex systems characteristic of gene combinations while a graduate student at Harvard's Bussey Institute from 1912 to 1915. In Mendelian breeding experiments, Wright observed a hierarchical dependence of the organism's phenotype on dynamic networks of genetic interaction and organization. An animal's physical traits, and thus its autonomy from surrounding environmental constraints, depended greatly on how genes behaved in certain combinations. Wright recognized that while genes are the material determinants of the animal phenotype, operating with great regularity, the special nature of genetic systems contributes to the animal phenotype a degree of spontaneity and novelty, creating unpredictable trait variations by virtue of gene interactions. As a result of his experimentation, as well as his keen interest in the philosophical literature of his day, Wright was inspired to see genetic systems as conscious, living organisms in their own right. Moreover, he decided that since genetic systems maintain ordered stability and cause unpredictable novelty in their organic wholes (the animal phenotype), it would be necessary for biologists to integrate techniques for studying causally ordered phenomena (experimental method) and chance phenomena (correlation method). From 1914 to 1921 Wright developed his "method of path coefficient" (or "path analysis"), a new procedure drawing from both laboratory experimentation and statistical correlation in order to analyze the relative influence of specific genetic interactions on phenotype variation. In this paper I aim to show how Wright's philosophy for understanding complex genetic systems (panpsychic organicism) logically motivated his 1914-1921 design of path analysis. PMID:18175605

  18. Bridging Mechanistic and Phenomenological Models of Complex Biological Systems.

    PubMed

    Transtrum, Mark K; Qiu, Peng

    2016-05-01

    The inherent complexity of biological systems gives rise to complicated mechanistic models with a large number of parameters. On the other hand, the collective behavior of these systems can often be characterized by a relatively small number of phenomenological parameters. We use the Manifold Boundary Approximation Method (MBAM) as a tool for deriving simple phenomenological models from complicated mechanistic models. The resulting models are not black boxes, but remain expressed in terms of the microscopic parameters. In this way, we explicitly connect the macroscopic and microscopic descriptions, characterize the equivalence class of distinct systems exhibiting the same range of collective behavior, and identify the combinations of components that function as tunable control knobs for the behavior. We demonstrate the procedure for adaptation behavior exhibited by the EGFR pathway. From a 48 parameter mechanistic model, the system can be effectively described by a single adaptation parameter τ characterizing the ratio of time scales for the initial response and recovery time of the system which can in turn be expressed as a combination of microscopic reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and biochemical concentrations. The situation is not unlike modeling in physics in which microscopically complex processes can often be renormalized into simple phenomenological models with only a few effective parameters. The proposed method additionally provides a mechanistic explanation for non-universal features of the behavior. PMID:27187545

  19. Complexity and the reductionism-holism debate in systems biology.

    PubMed

    Mazzocchi, Fulvio

    2012-01-01

    Reductionism has largely influenced the development of science, culminating in its application to molecular biology. An increasing number of novel research findings have, however, shattered this view, showing how the molecular-reductionist approach cannot entirely handle the complexity of biological systems. Within this framework, the advent of systems biology as a new and more integrative field of research is described, along with the form which has taken on the debate of reductionism versus holism. Such an issue occupies a central position in systems biology, and nonetheless it is not always clearly delineated. This partly occurs because different dimensions (ontological, epistemological, methodological) are involved, and yet the concerned ones often remain unspecified. Besides, within systems biology different streams can be distinguished depending on the degree of commitment to embrace genuine systemic principles. Some useful insights into the future development of this discipline might be gained from the tradition of complexity and self-organization. This is especially true with regards the idea of self-reference, which incorporated into the organizational scheme is able to generate autonomy as an emergent property of the biological whole. PMID:22761024

  20. The engineering design integration (EDIN) system. [digital computer program complex

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glatt, C. R.; Hirsch, G. N.; Alford, G. E.; Colquitt, W. N.; Reiners, S. J.

    1974-01-01

    A digital computer program complex for the evaluation of aerospace vehicle preliminary designs is described. The system consists of a Univac 1100 series computer and peripherals using the Exec 8 operating system, a set of demand access terminals of the alphanumeric and graphics types, and a library of independent computer programs. Modification of the partial run streams, data base maintenance and construction, and control of program sequencing are provided by a data manipulation program called the DLG processor. The executive control of library program execution is performed by the Univac Exec 8 operating system through a user established run stream. A combination of demand and batch operations is employed in the evaluation of preliminary designs. Applications accomplished with the EDIN system are described.

  1. Risk assessment and life prediction of complex engineering systems

    SciTech Connect

    Garcia, M.D.; Varma, R.; Heger, A.S.

    1996-03-01

    Many complex engineering systems will exceed their design life expectancy within the next 10 to 15 years. It is also expected that these systems must be maintained and operated beyond their design life. This paper presents a integrated approach for managing the risks associated with aging effects and predicting the residually expectancy these systems, The approach unifies risk assessment, enhanced surveillance and testing, and robust computational models to assess the risk, predict age, and develop a life-extension management procedure. It also relies on the state of the art in life-extension and risk assessment methods from the nuclear power industry. Borrowing from the developments in decision analysis, this approach should systematically identify the options available for managing the existing aging systems beyond their intended design life.

  2. An entropical characterization for complex systems becoming out of control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaudiano, Marcos E.

    2015-12-01

    General properties of N-dimensional multi-component or many-particle systems exhibiting self-similar hierarchical structure are presented. The entire system is partitioned into cells, which have an associated generalized entropy S(D) that is shown to be a universal function of the fractal dimension D of the configurations, exhibiting self-similarity properties which are independent of the dimensionality N. This provides a general way to classify the components of the system according to entropical reasons, independently of the observer's criteria. For certain complex systems, the normalized S(D) may also be associated with the large time stationary profile of the fractal density distribution in the absence of external fields (or control).

  3. Complex socio-technical systems: Characterization and management guidelines.

    PubMed

    Righi, Angela Weber; Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu

    2015-09-01

    Although ergonomics has paid increasing attention to the perspective of complexity, methods for its operationalization are scarce. This study introduces a framework for the operationalization of the "attribute view" of complexity, which involves: (i) the delimitation of the socio-technical system (STS); (ii) the description of four complexity attributes, namely a large number of elements in dynamic interactions, a wide diversity of elements, unexpected variability, and resilience; (iii) the assessment of six management guidelines, namely design slack, give visibility to processes and outcomes, anticipate and monitor the impacts of small changes, monitor the gap between prescription and practice, encourage diversity of perspectives when making decisions, and create an environment that supports resilience; and (iv) the identification of leverage points for improving the STS design, based on both the analysis of relationships among the attributes and their classification as irreducible/manageable complexity, and liability/asset. The use of the framework is illustrated by the study of an emergency department of a University hospital. Data collection involved analysis of documents, observations of work at the front-line, interviews with employees, and the application of questionnaires. PMID:25959314

  4. Exsolution as an Example of Complex-System Behavior

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mogk, D. W.; Dutrow, B. L.

    2010-12-01

    Exsolution in minerals is an important process that occurs in a wide range of mineral groups (e.g. alkali feldspars, pyroxenes, amphiboles, carbonates, oxides, sulfides) in response to changing physical conditions. Exsolution describes a physical process in which a mineral with an initially homogeneous solid solution separates into at least two distinct derivative minerals of disparate composition and is typically interpreted as the product of unmixing in response to lattice strain during slow cooling. Such a process is typically taught in introductory mineralogy and petrology courses, in part because exsolution textures can be readily observed in hand sample or thin section. Exsolution is typically represented on equilibrium binary phase diagrams (T-X), and compositions of the unmixed products can be used in geothermobarometry to calculate temperatures and pressures of initial equilibration or compositions of the unmixed products. Although central to course content, traditional approaches to teaching exsolution are largely descriptive, and do not address the underlying principles that drive this phenomenon: that is, dissipation of energy results in segregating and self-organizing behavior of the system. This process exemplifies complex-system behavior. We use perthite formation (i.e. exsolution in the alkali feldspar system) in a series of scaffolded exercises to teach and more completely demonstrate complex-system behavior. These exercises include the use of: 1) hand samples and a series of optical and TEM photomicrographs to display the scale invariance of perthite textures; 2) a puzzle activity in which a chessboard is used as an analog model of atomic positions and nickels and pennies are used to represent individual atoms (Na and K respectively); sequential moves to optimize contacts with similar coins approximates minimization of lattice energies and reveals a power-law relationship as the system becomes increasingly segregated as a function of time to

  5. Sustainable design of complex industrial and energy systems under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zheng

    Depletion of natural resources, environmental pressure, economic globalization, etc., demand seriously industrial organizations to ensure that their manufacturing be sustainable. On the other hand, the efforts of pursing sustainability also give raise to potential opportunities for improvements and collaborations among various types of industries. Owing to inherent complexity and uncertainty, however, sustainability problems of industrial and energy systems are always very difficult to deal with, which has made industrial practice mostly experience based. For existing research efforts on the study of industrial sustainability, although systems approaches have been applied in dealing with the challenge of system complexity, most of them are still lack in the ability of handling inherent uncertainty. To overcome this limit, there is a research need to develop a new generation of systems approaches by integrating techniques and methods for handling various types of uncertainties. To achieve this objective, this research introduced series of holistic methodologies for sustainable design and decision-making of industrial and energy systems. The introduced methodologies are developed in a systems point of view with the functional components involved in, namely, modeling, assessment, analysis, and decision-making. For different methodologies, the interval-parameter-based, fuzzy-logic-based, and Monte Carlo based methods are selected and applied respectively for handling various types of uncertainties involved, and the optimality of solutions is guaranteed by thorough search or system optimization. The proposed methods are generally applicable for any types of industrial systems, and their efficacy had been successfully demonstrated by the given case studies. Beyond that, a computational tool was designed, which provides functions on the industrial sustainability assessment and decision-making through several convenient and interactive steps of computer operation. This

  6. Young Children's Knowledge About the Moon: A Complex Dynamic System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venville, Grady J.; Louisell, Robert D.; Wilhelm, Jennifer A.

    2012-08-01

    The purpose of this research was to use a multidimensional theoretical framework to examine young children's knowledge about the Moon. The research was conducted in the interpretive paradigm and the design was a multiple case study of ten children between the ages of three and eight from the USA and Australia. A detailed, semi-structured interview was conducted with each child. In addition, each child's parents were interviewed to determine possible social and cultural influences on the child's knowledge. We sought evidence about how the social and cultural experiences of the children might have influenced the development of their ideas. From a cognitive perspective we were interested in whether the children's ideas were constructed in a theory like form or whether the knowledge was the result of gradual accumulation of fragments of isolated cultural information. Findings reflected the strong and complex relationship between individual children, their social and cultural milieu, and the way they construct ideas about the Moon and astronomy. Findings are presented around four themes including ontology, creatures and artefacts, animism, and permanence. The findings support a complex dynamic system view of students' knowledge that integrates the framework theory perspective and the knowledge in fragments perspective. An initial model of a complex dynamic system of young children's knowledge about the Moon is presented.

  7. Probing Potential Energy Surface Exploration Strategies for Complex Systems.

    PubMed

    N'Tsouaglo, Gawonou Kokou; Béland, Laurent Karim; Joly, Jean-François; Brommer, Peter; Mousseau, Normand; Pochet, Pascal

    2015-04-14

    The efficiency of minimum-energy configuration searching algorithms is closely linked to the energy landscape structure of complex systems, yet these algorithms often include a number of steps of which the effect is not always clear. Decoupling these steps and their impacts can allow us to better understand both their role and the nature of complex energy landscape. Here, we consider a family of minimum-energy algorithms based, directly or indirectly, on the well-known Bell-Evans-Polanyi (BEP) principle. Comparing trajectories generated with BEP-based algorithms to kinetically correct off-lattice kinetic Monte Carlo schemes allow us to confirm that the BEP principle does not hold for complex systems since forward and reverse energy barriers are completely uncorrelated. As would be expected, following the lowest available energy barrier leads to rapid trapping. This is why BEP-based methods require also a direct handling of visited basins or barriers. Comparing the efficiency of these methods with a thermodynamical handling of low-energy barriers, we show that most of the efficiency of the BEP-like methods lie first and foremost in the basin management rather than in the BEP-like step. PMID:26574398

  8. Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gulati, Sandeep; Mackey, Ryan

    2003-01-01

    A new method of robust, autonomous real-time diagnosis of a time-varying complex system (e.g., a spacecraft, an advanced aircraft, or a process-control system) is presented here. It is based upon the characterization and comparison of (1) the execution of software, as reported by discrete data, and (2) data from sensors that monitor the physical state of the system, such as performance sensors or similar quantitative time-varying measurements. By taking account of the relationship between execution of, and the responses to, software commands, this method satisfies a key requirement for robust autonomous diagnosis, namely, ensuring that control is maintained and followed. Such monitoring of control software requires that estimates of the state of the system, as represented within the control software itself, are representative of the physical behavior of the system. In this method, data from sensors and discrete command data are analyzed simultaneously and compared to determine their correlation. If the sensed physical state of the system differs from the software estimate (see figure) or if the system fails to perform a transition as commanded by software, or such a transition occurs without the associated command, the system has experienced a control fault. This method provides a means of detecting such divergent behavior and automatically generating an appropriate warning.

  9. Monitoring and analysis of data from complex systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dollman, Thomas; Webster, Kenneth

    1991-01-01

    Some of the methods, systems, and prototypes that have been tested for monitoring and analyzing the data from several spacecraft and vehicles at the Marshall Space Flight Center are introduced. For the Huntsville Operations Support Center (HOSC) infrastructure, the Marshall Integrated Support System (MISS) provides a migration path to the state-of-the-art workstation environment. Its modular design makes it possible to implement the system in stages on multiple platforms without the need for all components to be in place at once. The MISS provides a flexible, user-friendly environment for monitoring and controlling orbital payloads. In addition, new capabilities and technology may be incorporated into MISS with greater ease. The use of information systems technology in advanced prototype phases, as adjuncts to mainline activities, is used to evaluate new computational techniques for monitoring and analysis of complex systems. Much of the software described (specially, HSTORESIS (Hubble Space Telescope Operational Readiness Expert Safemode Investigation System), DRS (Device Reasoning Shell), DART (Design Alternatives Rational Tool), elements of the DRA (Document Retrieval Assistant), and software for the PPS (Peripheral Processing System) and the HSPP (High-Speed Peripheral Processor)) is available with supporting documentation, and may be applicable to other system monitoring and analysis applications.

  10. Multimode lasers as analogs of complex biological systems (a survey)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Danilov, O. B.; Rosanov, N. N.; Solov'ev, N. A.; Soms, L. N.

    2016-04-01

    Simulating the activity of complex biological systems, in particular, the human brain, is a topical problem the solution of which is necessary both for understanding their functioning and for developing new classes of computational system based on operating principles of the brain. Some features and analogies that can be found in the operation of laser systems and brain and used for developing new generation computational systems are discussed. The appropriateness of such analogies is justified by the fact that both laser systems and the brain are open (interacting with the environment) dissipative spatially distributed nonlinear systems. Therefore, laser optical systems and, in particular, systems with dissipative optical solitons offer an opportunity to experimentally and theoretically model some important cognitive brain functions. One of particularities of the brain operation is the ability to manipulate images. Proceeding from this, in this work, problems related to generation and amplification with laser of spatial structures (images), as well as to amplification of signals coming to it from outside are discussed.

  11. Distributed Cooperation Solution Method of Complex System Based on MAS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijin, Jiang; Yuhui, Xu

    To adapt the model in reconfiguring fault diagnosing to dynamic environment and the needs of solving the tasks of complex system fully, the paper introduced multi-Agent and related technology to the complicated fault diagnosis, an integrated intelligent control system is studied in this paper. Based on the thought of the structure of diagnostic decision and hierarchy in modeling, based on multi-layer decomposition strategy of diagnosis task, a multi-agent synchronous diagnosis federation integrated different knowledge expression modes and inference mechanisms are presented, the functions of management agent, diagnosis agent and decision agent are analyzed, the organization and evolution of agents in the system are proposed, and the corresponding conflict resolution algorithm in given, Layered structure of abstract agent with public attributes is build. System architecture is realized based on MAS distributed layered blackboard. The real world application shows that the proposed control structure successfully solves the fault diagnose problem of the complex plant, and the special advantage in the distributed domain.

  12. Fractal variability: An emergent property of complex dissipative systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seely, Andrew J. E.; Macklem, Peter

    2012-03-01

    The patterns of variation of physiologic parameters, such as heart and respiratory rate, and their alteration with age and illness have long been under investigation; however, the origin and significance of scale-invariant fractal temporal structures that characterize healthy biologic variability remain unknown. Quite independently, atmospheric and planetary scientists have led breakthroughs in the science of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. In this paper, we aim to provide two novel hypotheses regarding the origin and etiology of both the degree of variability and its fractal properties. In a complex dissipative system, we hypothesize that the degree of variability reflects the adaptability of the system and is proportional to maximum work output possible divided by resting work output. Reductions in maximal work output (and oxygen consumption) or elevation in resting work output (or oxygen consumption) will thus reduce overall degree of variability. Second, we hypothesize that the fractal nature of variability is a self-organizing emergent property of complex dissipative systems, precisely because it enables the system's ability to optimally dissipate energy gradients and maximize entropy production. In physiologic terms, fractal patterns in space (e.g., fractal vasculature) or time (e.g., cardiopulmonary variability) optimize the ability to deliver oxygen and clear carbon dioxide and waste. Examples of falsifiability are discussed, along with the need to further define necessary boundary conditions. Last, as our focus is bedside utility, potential clinical applications of this understanding are briefly discussed. The hypotheses are clinically relevant and have potential widespread scientific relevance.

  13. Fractal variability: an emergent property of complex dissipative systems.

    PubMed

    Seely, Andrew J E; Macklem, Peter

    2012-03-01

    The patterns of variation of physiologic parameters, such as heart and respiratory rate, and their alteration with age and illness have long been under investigation; however, the origin and significance of scale-invariant fractal temporal structures that characterize healthy biologic variability remain unknown. Quite independently, atmospheric and planetary scientists have led breakthroughs in the science of non-equilibrium thermodynamics. In this paper, we aim to provide two novel hypotheses regarding the origin and etiology of both the degree of variability and its fractal properties. In a complex dissipative system, we hypothesize that the degree of variability reflects the adaptability of the system and is proportional to maximum work output possible divided by resting work output. Reductions in maximal work output (and oxygen consumption) or elevation in resting work output (or oxygen consumption) will thus reduce overall degree of variability. Second, we hypothesize that the fractal nature of variability is a self-organizing emergent property of complex dissipative systems, precisely because it enables the system's ability to optimally dissipate energy gradients and maximize entropy production. In physiologic terms, fractal patterns in space (e.g., fractal vasculature) or time (e.g., cardiopulmonary variability) optimize the ability to deliver oxygen and clear carbon dioxide and waste. Examples of falsifiability are discussed, along with the need to further define necessary boundary conditions. Last, as our focus is bedside utility, potential clinical applications of this understanding are briefly discussed. The hypotheses are clinically relevant and have potential widespread scientific relevance. PMID:22462984

  14. Black-box calibration for complex-system simulation.

    PubMed

    Forrester, Alexander I J

    2010-08-13

    Predicting or measuring the output of complex systems is an important and challenging part of many areas of science. If multiple observations are required for parameter studies and optimization, accurate, computationally intensive predictions or expensive experiments are intractable. This paper looks at the use of Gaussian-process-based correlations to correct simple computer models with sparse data from physical experiments or more complex computer models. In essence, physics-based computer codes and experiments are replaced by fast problem-specific statistics-based codes. Two aerodynamic design examples are presented. First, a cheap two-dimensional potential-flow solver is calibrated to represent the flow over the wing of an unmanned air vehicle. The rear wing of a racing car is then optimized using rear-wing simulations calibrated to include the effects of the flow over the whole car. PMID:20603368

  15. Constructed wetland treatment system for upper blackfoot mining complex

    SciTech Connect

    Sanders, F.S.

    1996-12-31

    A combined passive oxidation/sedimentation (pre-treatment) and constructed wetland (polishing) system has been designed and installed to treat mine drainage at the inactive Upper Blackfoot River Mining Complex northeast of Lincoln, MT. The system is designed to treat up to 100 gpm flow with moderate heavy metal concentrations (25 to 95 mg/L Zn; lower concentrations of Pb, Cu, and As), moderate Fe concentrations (< 100 mg/L), and periodic high acidity (pH 2.6 to 3.5). The treatment scheme is flexible to accommodate a wide range of flows, metal concentrations, and acidity in order to gain cost-efficiencies and to meet restrictive discharge standards for the environmentally-sensitive Blackfoot River watershed. The wetland treatment system presently is undergoing start-up testing and initial tuning and will be operational during summer, 1996. Conceptual and engineering designs are presented along with preliminary data.

  16. Ecosystems and the Biosphere as Complex Adaptive Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Levin, Simon A.

    1998-01-01

    Ecosystems are prototypical examples of complex adaptive systems, in which patterns at higher levels emerge from localized interactions and selection processes acting at lower levels. An essential aspect of such systems is nonlinearity, leading to historical dependency and multiple possible outcomes of dynamics. Given this, it is essential to determine the degree to which system features are determined by environmental conditions, and the degree to which they are the result of self-organization. Furthermore, given the multiple levels at which dynamics become apparent and at which selection can act, central issues relate to how evolution shapes ecosystems properties, and whether ecosystems become buffered to changes (more resilient) over their ecological and evolutionary development or proceed to critical states and the edge of chaos.

  17. Integrated geometry and grid generation system for complex configurations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Akdag, Vedat; Wulf, Armin

    1992-01-01

    A grid generation system was developed that enables grid generation for complex configurations. The system called ICEM/CFD is described and its role in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) applications is presented. The capabilities of the system include full computer aided design (CAD), grid generation on the actual CAD geometry definition using robust surface projection algorithms, interfacing easily with known CAD packages through common file formats for geometry transfer, grid quality evaluation of the volume grid, coupling boundary condition set-up for block faces with grid topology generation, multi-block grid generation with or without point continuity and block to block interface requirement, and generating grid files directly compatible with known flow solvers. The interactive and integrated approach to the problem of computational grid generation not only substantially reduces manpower time but also increases the flexibility of later grid modifications and enhancements which is required in an environment where CFD is integrated into a product design cycle.

  18. Focus on coherent control of complex quantum systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whaley, Birgitta; Milburn, Gerard

    2015-10-01

    The rapid growth of quantum information sciences over the past few decades has fueled a corresponding rise in high profile applications in fields such as metrology, sensors, spintronics, and attosecond dynamics, in addition to quantum information processing. Realizing this potential of today’s quantum science and the novel technologies based on this requires a high degree of coherent control of quantum systems. While early efforts in systematizing methods for high fidelity quantum control focused on isolated or closed quantum systems, recent advances in experimental design, measurement and monitoring, have stimulated both need and interest in the control of complex or large scale quantum systems that may also be coupled to an interactive environment or reservoir. This focus issue brings together new theoretical and experimental work addressing the formulation and implementation of quantum control for a broad range of applications in quantum science and technology today.

  19. Modularity and the spread of perturbations in complex dynamical systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kolchinsky, Artemy; Gates, Alexander J.; Rocha, Luis M.

    2015-12-01

    We propose a method to decompose dynamical systems based on the idea that modules constrain the spread of perturbations. We find partitions of system variables that maximize "perturbation modularity," defined as the autocovariance of coarse-grained perturbed trajectories. The measure effectively separates the fast intramodular from the slow intermodular dynamics of perturbation spreading (in this respect, it is a generalization of the "Markov stability" method of network community detection). Our approach captures variation of modular organization across different system states, time scales, and in response to different kinds of perturbations: aspects of modularity which are all relevant to real-world dynamical systems. It offers a principled alternative to detecting communities in networks of statistical dependencies between system variables (e.g., "relevance networks" or "functional networks"). Using coupled logistic maps, we demonstrate that the method uncovers hierarchical modular organization planted in a system's coupling matrix. Additionally, in homogeneously coupled map lattices, it identifies the presence of self-organized modularity that depends on the initial state, dynamical parameters, and type of perturbations. Our approach offers a powerful tool for exploring the modular organization of complex dynamical systems.

  20. Control of Future Air Traffic Systems via Complexity Bound Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexandrov, Natalia

    2013-01-01

    The complexity of the present system for managing air traffic has led to "discreteness" in approaches to creating new concepts: new concepts are created as point designs, based on experience, expertise, and creativity of the proposer. Discrete point designs may be highly successful but they are difficult to substantiate in the face of equally strong substantiation of competing concepts, as well as the state of the art in concept evaluation via simulations. Hybrid concepts may present a compromise - the golden middle. Yet a hybrid of sometimes in principle incompatible concepts forms another point design that faces the challenge of substantiation and validation. We are faced with the need to re-design the air transportation system ab initio. This is a daunting task, especially considering the problem of transitioning from the present system to any fundamentally new system. However, design from scratch is also an opportunity to reconsider approaches to new concept development. In this position paper we propose an approach, Optimized Parametric Functional Design, for systematic development of concepts for management and control of airspace systems, based on optimization formulations in terms of required system functions and states. This reasoning framework, realizable in the context of ab initio system design, offers an approach to deriving substantiated airspace management and control concepts. With growing computational power, we hope that the approach will also yield a methodology for actual dynamic control of airspace

  1. New England Takes Stock of Midterm Elections

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harney, John O.; Morwick, Carolyn

    2014-01-01

    The recent midterm elections brought New England two new governors. Rhode Island elected its first woman chief executive in Gina Raimondo (D). Massachusetts elected Charlie Baker (R), a former Harvard Pilgrim CEO and official in the Weld and Cellucci administrations. Otherwise, the New England corner offices cautiously welcomed back incumbents:…

  2. Leading Indicator: New England's Higher Education Economy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mortenson, Thomas G.

    2003-01-01

    In few places is higher education so ingrained in a region's economic vitality as in New England. Students from all over the world enroll in New England's institutions of learning and research, bringing resources to finance their education and living expenses that reverberate throughout local and state economies. Human capital-based industries…

  3. New England's Vital Resource: The Labor Force.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoy, John C., Ed.; Bernstein, Melvin H., Ed.

    A collection of analyses and projections is presented that explores the challenges posed by a rapidly evolving economy and the critical issue of manpower policy facing New England and the nation. New England was able to move from traditional industry to high technology because its colleges and universities supplied basic research and trained…

  4. Renyi entropy as a statistical entropy for complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bashkirov, A. G.

    2006-11-01

    To describe a complex system, we propose using the Renyi entropy depending on the parameter q (0 < q ≤ 1) and passing into the Gibbs-Shannon entropy at q = 1. The maximum principle for the Renyi entropy yields a Renyi distribution that passes into the Gibbs canonical distribution at q = 1. The thermodynamic entropy of the complex system is defined as the Renyi entropy for the Renyi distribution. In contrast to the usual entropy based on the Gibbs-Shannon entropy, the Renyi entropy increases as the distribution deviates from the Gibbs distribution (the deviation is estimated by the parameter η = 1 - q) and reaches its maximum at the maximum possible value ηmax. As this occurs, the Renyi distribution becomes a power-law distribution. The parameter η can be regarded as an order parameter. At η = 0, the derivative of the thermodynamic entropy with respect to η exhibits a jump, which indicates a kind of phase transition into a more ordered state. The evolution of the system toward further order in this phase state is accompanied by an entropy gain. This means that in accordance with the second law of thermodynamics, a natural evolution in the direction of self-organization is preferable.

  5. Knowledge-based design of complex mechanical systems

    SciTech Connect

    Ishii, K.

    1988-01-01

    The recent development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques allows incorporation of qualitative aspects of design into the computer aids. This thesis presents a framework for applying AI techniques to the design of complex mechanical systems. A complex, yet well-understood design example as a vehicle for the effort is used. The author first reviews how experienced designers use knowledge at various stages of system design. He then proposes a knowledge-based model of the design process and develop frameworks for applying knowledge engineering in order to construct a consultation system for the designers. He proposes four such frameworks for use at different stages of design: (1) Design Compatibility Analysis (DCA) analyzes the compatibility of the designer's design alternatives with the design specification, (2) Initial Design Suggestion (IDS) provides the designer with reasonable initial estimates of the design variables, (3) Rule-based Sensitivity Analysis (RSA) guides the user through redesign, and (4) Active Constraint Deduction (ACD) identifies the bottlenecks of design by heuristic knowledge. These frameworks eliminate unnecessary iterations and allows the user to obtain a satisfactory solution rapidly.

  6. How complexity emerges in urban systems: Theory of urban morphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goh, Segun; Choi, M. Y.; Lee, Keumsook; Kim, Kyung-min

    2016-05-01

    Human beings develop the land and transform land use patterns, constructing artificial structures. Among them, the city is a representative system and its morphology has attracted much attention. While most existing studies have been devoted to individual dynamics and focused on the proximity of specific areas of a city, we here pay attention to the city as a complex system, where interactions between individuals give rise to emergent properties. Specifically, analyzing the big data on every building in Seoul City, we specify the relevant interactions among constituents and probe the emergence of complex land use patterns. In particular, based on the empirical observations, we illustrate that interactions between land uses are frustrated, which serves as a basic postulate of the theory of urban morphology. We examine this conjecture with the help of a layered Ising-type model and disclose that the actual land use pattern emerges at the criticality of the system in the presence of heterogeneously distributed fields. It is also remarked that our model, allowing quantitative predictions, can easily be applied to other cities around the world.

  7. How complexity emerges in urban systems: Theory of urban morphology.

    PubMed

    Goh, Segun; Choi, M Y; Lee, Keumsook; Kim, Kyung-Min

    2016-05-01

    Human beings develop the land and transform land use patterns, constructing artificial structures. Among them, the city is a representative system and its morphology has attracted much attention. While most existing studies have been devoted to individual dynamics and focused on the proximity of specific areas of a city, we here pay attention to the city as a complex system, where interactions between individuals give rise to emergent properties. Specifically, analyzing the big data on every building in Seoul City, we specify the relevant interactions among constituents and probe the emergence of complex land use patterns. In particular, based on the empirical observations, we illustrate that interactions between land uses are frustrated, which serves as a basic postulate of the theory of urban morphology. We examine this conjecture with the help of a layered Ising-type model and disclose that the actual land use pattern emerges at the criticality of the system in the presence of heterogeneously distributed fields. It is also remarked that our model, allowing quantitative predictions, can easily be applied to other cities around the world. PMID:27300912

  8. Connectivity and complex systems in geomorphology: addressing some key challenges

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pöppl, Ronald; Turnbull-Lloyd, Laura; Parsons, Anthony; Bracken, Louise; Keesstra, Saskia; Masselink, Rens

    2016-04-01

    "Connectivity thinking" and related concepts have a long history in geomorphology. Since the beginning of the 21st century connectivity research experienced a huge boom in geomorphology as geomorphologists started to develop new concepts on connectivity to better understand the complexity of geomorphic systems and system response to change. However, progress in the field of connectivity in geomorphology has mostly been developing in a parallel manner, resulting in a multiplicity of definitions, concepts and methodological approaches. Nevertheless, a set of common key challenges amongst the different connectivity concepts and approaches used to understand complex geomorphic systems are also evident. In the course of a theory think tank of the COST Action ES1306 (CONNECTEUR - Connecting European Connectivity Research) the following five different key challenges were detected (Turnbull et al., in prep.): (i) defining the fundamental unit, (ii) distinguishing between structural and functional boundaries, (iii) emergent behavior, (iv) memory effects, (v) measuring connectivity. In this presentation we will a) discuss how these key challenges are addressed and approached in connectivity research in geomorphology, b) evaluate ways in which cross-disciplinary advances may be made by exploring potential for a common toolbox approach to the study of connectivity.

  9. Complex rostral neurovascular system in a giant pliosaur

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Foffa, Davide; Sassoon, Judyth; Cuff, Andrew R.; Mavrogordato, Mark N.; Benton, Michael J.

    2014-05-01

    Pliosaurs were a long-lived, ubiquitous group of Mesozoic marine predators attaining large body sizes (up to 12 m). Despite much being known about their ecology and behaviour, the mechanisms they adopted for prey detection have been poorly investigated and represent a mystery to date. Complex neurovascular systems in many vertebrate rostra have evolved for prey detection. However, information on the occurrence of such systems in fossil taxa is extremely limited because of poor preservation potential. The neurovascular complex from the snout of an exceptionally well-preserved pliosaur from the Kimmeridgian (Late Jurassic, c. 170 Myr ago) of Weymouth Bay (Dorset, UK) is described here for the first time. Using computed tomography (CT) scans, the extensive bifurcating neurovascular channels could be traced through the rostrum to both the teeth and the foramina on the dorsal and lateral surface of the snout. The structures on the surface of the skull and the high concentrations of peripheral rami suggest that this could be a sensory system, perhaps similar to crocodile pressure receptors or shark electroreceptors.

  10. GT-CATS: Tracking Operator Activities in Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Callantine, Todd J.; Mitchell, Christine M.; Palmer, Everett A.

    1999-01-01

    Human operators of complex dynamic systems can experience difficulties supervising advanced control automation. One remedy is to develop intelligent aiding systems that can provide operators with context-sensitive advice and reminders. The research reported herein proposes, implements, and evaluates a methodology for activity tracking, a form of intent inferencing that can supply the knowledge required for an intelligent aid by constructing and maintaining a representation of operator activities in real time. The methodology was implemented in the Georgia Tech Crew Activity Tracking System (GT-CATS), which predicts and interprets the actions performed by Boeing 757/767 pilots navigating using autopilot flight modes. This report first describes research on intent inferencing and complex modes of automation. It then provides a detailed description of the GT-CATS methodology, knowledge structures, and processing scheme. The results of an experimental evaluation using airline pilots are given. The results show that GT-CATS was effective in predicting and interpreting pilot actions in real time.

  11. Health monitoring display system for a complex plant

    DOEpatents

    Ridolfo, Charles F.; Harmon, Daryl L.; Colin, Dreyfuss

    2006-08-08

    A single page enterprise wide level display provides a comprehensive readily understood representation of the overall health status of a complex plant. Color coded failure domains allow rapid intuitive recognition of component failure status. A three-tier hierarchy of displays provide details on the health status of the components and systems displayed on the enterprise wide level display in a manner that supports a logical drill down to the health status of sub-components on Tier 1 to expected faults of the sub-components on Tier 2 to specific information relative to expected sub-component failures on Tier 3.

  12. Ultra-short pulse propagation in complex optical systems.

    PubMed

    Fuchs, Ulrike; Zeitner, Uwe; Tünnermann, Andreas

    2005-05-16

    In application of ultra-short laser pulses the pulse parameters have to be controlled accurately. Hence the manipulation of the propagation behavior of ultra-short pulses requires for specially designed optics. We have developed a tool for the simulation of ultra-short laser pulse propagation through complex real optical systems based on a combination of ray-tracing and wave optical propagation methods. For the practical implementation of the approach two commercially available software packages have been linked together, which are ZEMAX and Virtual Optics Lab. The focussing properties of different lenses will be analyzed and the results are demonstrated. PMID:19495292

  13. A complex systems approach to computational molecular biology

    SciTech Connect

    Lapedes, A. |

    1993-09-01

    We report on the containing research program at Santa Fe Institute that applies complex systems methodology to computational molecular biology. Two aspects are stressed here are the use of co-evolving adaptive neutral networks for determining predictable protein structure classifications, and the use of information theory to elucidate protein structure and function. A ``snapshot`` of the current state of research in these two topics is presented, representing the present state of two major research thrusts in the program of Genetic Data and Sequence Analysis at the Santa Fe Institute.

  14. Designing Better Scaffolding in Teaching Complex Systems with Graphical Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Na

    Complex systems are an important topic in science education today, but they are usually difficult for secondary-level students to learn. Although graphic simulations have many advantages in teaching complex systems, scaffolding is a critical factor for effective learning. This dissertation study was conducted around two complementary research questions on scaffolding: (1) How can we chunk and sequence learning activities in teaching complex systems? (2) How can we help students make connections among system levels across learning activities (level bridging)? With a sample of 123 seventh-graders, this study employed a 3x2 experimental design that factored sequencing methods (independent variable 1; three levels) with level-bridging scaffolding (independent variable 2; two levels) and compared the effectiveness of each combination. The study measured two dependent variables: (1) knowledge integration (i.e., integrating and connecting content-specific normative concepts and providing coherent scientific explanations); (2) understanding of the deep causal structure (i.e., being able to grasp and transfer the causal knowledge of a complex system). The study used a computer-based simulation environment as the research platform to teach the ideal gas law as a system. The ideal gas law is an emergent chemical system that has three levels: (1) experiential macro level (EM) (e.g., an aerosol can explodes when it is thrown into the fire); (2) abstract macro level (AM) (i.e., the relationships among temperature, pressure and volume); (3) micro level (Mi) (i.e., molecular activity). The sequencing methods of these levels were manipulated by changing the order in which they were delivered with three possibilities: (1) EM-AM-Mi; (2) Mi-AM-EM; (3) AM-Mi-EM. The level-bridging scaffolding variable was manipulated on two aspects: (1) inserting inter-level questions among learning activities; (2) two simulations dynamically linked in the final learning activity. Addressing the first

  15. Integrated modeling tool for performance engineering of complex computer systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wright, Gary; Ball, Duane; Hoyt, Susan; Steele, Oscar

    1989-01-01

    This report summarizes Advanced System Technologies' accomplishments on the Phase 2 SBIR contract NAS7-995. The technical objectives of the report are: (1) to develop an evaluation version of a graphical, integrated modeling language according to the specification resulting from the Phase 2 research; and (2) to determine the degree to which the language meets its objectives by evaluating ease of use, utility of two sets of performance predictions, and the power of the language constructs. The technical approach followed to meet these objectives was to design, develop, and test an evaluation prototype of a graphical, performance prediction tool. The utility of the prototype was then evaluated by applying it to a variety of test cases found in the literature and in AST case histories. Numerous models were constructed and successfully tested. The major conclusion of this Phase 2 SBIR research and development effort is that complex, real-time computer systems can be specified in a non-procedural manner using combinations of icons, windows, menus, and dialogs. Such a specification technique provides an interface that system designers and architects find natural and easy to use. In addition, PEDESTAL's multiview approach provides system engineers with the capability to perform the trade-offs necessary to produce a design that meets timing performance requirements. Sample system designs analyzed during the development effort showed that models could be constructed in a fraction of the time required by non-visual system design capture tools.

  16. Drought mitigation using operative indicators in complex water systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sechi, G. M.; Sulis, A.

    The definition of an effective link between drought indicators and drought mitigation measures in a regional water supply systems is a complex problem involving environmental, social and economical factors. The gap between research and practice in this field still limits the application of mathematical modelling tools more than institutional or technological features. In this paper, a methodology is developed to support the decision making process of water authorities facing droughts in complex water systems. The methodology is based on a full integration of optimization and simulation tools. The exploratory power of the optimization allows the rapid estimation of subsets of flow variables related to forecasted demands supplies and shortages that are used as operative indicators of the drought risk in future hydrological scenarios. The simulation model uses these indicators as triggers of mitigation measures in a proactive approach to drought. In the case of an overly optimistic forecast of the hydrological scenario, the proactive approach does not completely eliminate the risk of shortages. In this case, further measures have to be implemented in the water system simulation in a reactive approach to drought. These can include more expensive and higher impact measures to be taken later, after the severity of the drought event has been highlighted. In collaboration with the regional water authorities in southern Italy, the proposed methodology is currently being tested in the Agri-Sinni water system. Early applications to the Agri-Sinni water system are presented in the paper, showing the usefulness of the proposed methodology in mitigating the impacts of drought and selecting an economically efficient combination of proactive and reactive measures.

  17. Health economic evaluation in England.

    PubMed

    Raftery, James

    2014-01-01

    The 2010 National Health Service Constitution for England specified rights and responsibilities, including health economic evaluation for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) and the Joint Committee on Vaccinations and Immunisations. The National Screening Committee and the Health Protection Agency also provide advice to the Government based on health economic evaluation. Each agency largely follows the methods specified by NICE. To distinguish the methods from neoclassical economics they have been termed "extra-welfarist". Key differences include measurement and valuation of both benefits (QALYs) and costs (healthcare related). Policy on discounting has also changed over time and by agency. The debate over having NICE's methods align more closely with neoclassical economics has been prominent in the ongoing development of "value based pricing". The political unacceptability of some decisions has led to special funding for technologies not recommended by NICE. These include the 2002 Multiple Sclerosis Risk Sharing Scheme and the 2010 Cancer Drugs Fund as well as special arrangements for technologies linked to the end of life and for innovation. Since 2009 Patient Access Schemes have made price reductions possible which sometimes enables drugs to meet NICE's cost-effectiveness thresholds. As a result, the National Health Service in England has denied few technologies on grounds of cost-effectiveness. PMID:25444294

  18. Nonlinear Dynamics of Complex Coevolutionary Systems in Historical Times

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdigão, Rui A. P.

    2016-04-01

    A new theoretical paradigm for statistical-dynamical modeling of complex coevolutionary systems is introduced, with the aim to provide historical geoscientists with a practical tool to analyse historical data and its underlying phenomenology. Historical data is assumed to represent the history of dynamical processes of physical and socio-economic nature. If processes and their governing laws are well understood, they are often treated with traditional dynamical equations: deterministic approach. If the governing laws are unknown or impracticable, the process is often treated as if being random (even if it is not): statistical approach. Although single eventful details - such as the exact spatiotemporal structure of a particular hydro-meteorological incident - may often be elusive to a detailed analysis, the overall dynamics exhibit group properties summarized by a simple set of categories or dynamical regimes at multiple scales - from local short-lived convection patterns to large-scale hydro-climatic regimes. The overwhelming microscale complexity is thus conveniently wrapped into a manageable group entity, such as a statistical distribution. In a stationary setting whereby the distribution is assumed to be invariant, alternating regimes are approachable as dynamical intermittence. For instance, in the context of bimodal climatic oscillations such as NAO and ENSO, each mode corresponds to a dynamical regime or phase. However, given external forcings or longer-term internal variability and multiscale coevolution, the structural properties of the system may change. These changes in the dynamical structure bring about a new distribution and associated regimes. The modes of yesteryear may no longer exist as such in the new structural order of the system. In this context, aside from regime intermittence, the system exhibits structural regime change. New oscillations may emerge whilst others fade into the annals of history, e.g. particular climate fluctuations during

  19. Unravelling the complexity of cancer-immune system interplay.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Cara K; Brown, Michael P; Diener, Kerrilyn R; Hayball, John D

    2010-06-01

    The immune system has an intricate and complex relationship with tumorigenesis; while it has the capacity to identify and eliminate cancerous cells, the emergence of a tumor signifies its failure to do this. Thus, the immune-tumor interplay is paradoxical as through initial suppression of tumor growth, an immunologically silent or even suppressive tumor evolves. Furthermore, certain immune processes, such as chronic inflammation and immunosuppression, can facilitate malignant progression. Nevertheless, immunotherapeutic approaches can manipulate the immune milieu to improve the therapeutic outcomes of cancer treatments. Furthermore, particular conventional cancer therapies also have immunostimulatory properties in their own right. An in-depth understanding of the intimate involvement of the immune system in tumorigenesis and the potential to manipulate this interaction to improve disease outcomes will enable the development of new and broadly effective cancer therapies. PMID:20553215

  20. Preferential attachment and growth dynamics in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamasaki, Kazuko; Matia, Kaushik; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Fu, Dongfeng; Pammolli, Fabio; Riccaboni, Massimo; Stanley, H. Eugene

    2006-09-01

    Complex systems can be characterized by classes of equivalency of their elements defined according to system specific rules. We propose a generalized preferential attachment model to describe the class size distribution. The model postulates preferential growth of the existing classes and the steady influx of new classes. According to the model, the distribution changes from a pure exponential form for zero influx of new classes to a power law with an exponential cut-off form when the influx of new classes is substantial. Predictions of the model are tested through the analysis of a unique industrial database, which covers both elementary units (products) and classes (markets, firms) in a given industry (pharmaceuticals), covering the entire size distribution. The model’s predictions are in good agreement with the data. The paper sheds light on the emergence of the exponent τ≈2 observed as a universal feature of many biological, social and economic problems.

  1. Fair Water Allocation in Complex International River Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beck, L.; Bernauer, T.

    2011-12-01

    Conflicts over water allocation in international freshwater systems are recurring phenomena, and climatic changes are likely to make existing problems worse in many parts of the world. Science-based proposals for water allocation frequently focus on allocating water to the economically most efficient purposes. In reality, allocation outcomes are often shaped by political and economic power, rather than considerations of economic efficiency. This paper develops a new approach to fair international water allocation in complex international freshwater systems. This approach covers both needs-based criteria - if acute water scarcity is present - and criteria for fair water allocation pertaining to relative gains in water-abundant situations. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated with a case study on the Zambezi River Basin (ZRB). Based on a hydrological model, and scenarios for water availability and demand in the ZRB until 2050, the paper shows how the waters of the ZRB could be allocated in a way that fairly distributes costs and benefits.

  2. Precision of collective oscillations in complex dynamical systems with noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mori, Fumito; Mikhailov, Alexander S.

    2016-06-01

    Two kinds of oscillation precision are investigated for complex oscillatory dynamical systems under action of noise. The many-cycle precision determined by the variance of the times needed for a large number of cycles is closely related to diffusion of the global oscillation phase and provides an invariant property of a system. The single-cycle precision given by the variance in durations of single cycles is sensitive to the choice of an output variable and output checkpoint; it can be improved by an appropriate selection of them. A general analysis of the precision properties based on the Floquet perturbation theory is performed and analytical predictions are verified in numerical simulations of a model oscillatory genetic network.

  3. Indicator system for advanced nuclear plant control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1993-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  4. Indicator system for a process plant control complex

    DOEpatents

    Scarola, Kenneth; Jamison, David S.; Manazir, Richard M.; Rescorl, Robert L.; Harmon, Daryl L.

    1993-01-01

    An advanced control room complex for a nuclear power plant, including a discrete indicator and alarm system (72) which is nuclear qualified for rapid response to changes in plant parameters and a component control system (64) which together provide a discrete monitoring and control capability at a panel (14-22, 26, 28) in the control room (10). A separate data processing system (70), which need not be nuclear qualified, provides integrated and overview information to the control room and to each panel, through CRTs (84) and a large, overhead integrated process status overview board (24). The discrete indicator and alarm system (72) and the data processing system (70) receive inputs from common plant sensors and validate the sensor outputs to arrive at a representative value of the parameter for use by the operator during both normal and accident conditions, thereby avoiding the need for him to assimilate data from each sensor individually. The integrated process status board (24) is at the apex of an information hierarchy that extends through four levels and provides access at each panel to the full display hierarchy. The control room panels are preferably of a modular construction, permitting the definition of inputs and outputs, the man machine interface, and the plant specific algorithms, to proceed in parallel with the fabrication of the panels, the installation of the equipment and the generic testing thereof.

  5. Poverty, disease, and the ecology of complex systems.

    PubMed

    Ngonghala, Calistus N; Pluciński, Mateusz M; Murray, Megan B; Farmer, Paul E; Barrett, Christopher B; Keenan, Donald C; Bonds, Matthew H

    2014-04-01

    Understanding why some human populations remain persistently poor remains a significant challenge for both the social and natural sciences. The extremely poor are generally reliant on their immediate natural resource base for subsistence and suffer high rates of mortality due to parasitic and infectious diseases. Economists have developed a range of models to explain persistent poverty, often characterized as poverty traps, but these rarely account for complex biophysical processes. In this Essay, we argue that by coupling insights from ecology and economics, we can begin to model and understand the complex dynamics that underlie the generation and maintenance of poverty traps, which can then be used to inform analyses and possible intervention policies. To illustrate the utility of this approach, we present a simple coupled model of infectious diseases and economic growth, where poverty traps emerge from nonlinear relationships determined by the number of pathogens in the system. These nonlinearities are comparable to those often incorporated into poverty trap models in the economics literature, but, importantly, here the mechanism is anchored in core ecological principles. Coupled models of this sort could be usefully developed in many economically important biophysical systems--such as agriculture, fisheries, nutrition, and land use change--to serve as foundations for deeper explorations of how fundamental ecological processes influence structural poverty and economic development. PMID:24690902

  6. Specificity and complexity in bacterial quorum-sensing systems

    PubMed Central

    Hawver, Lisa A.; Jung, Sarah A.; Ng, Wai-Leung

    2016-01-01

    Quorum sensing (QS) is a microbial cell-to-cell communication process that relies on the production and detection of chemical signals called autoinducers (AIs) to monitor cell density and species complexity in the population. QS allows bacteria to behave as a cohesive group and coordinate collective behaviors. While most QS receptors display high specificity to their AI ligands, others are quite promiscuous in signal detection. How do specific QS receptors respond to their cognate signals with high fidelity? Why do some receptors maintain low signal recognition specificity? In addition, many QS systems are composed of multiple intersecting signaling pathways: what are the benefits of preserving such a complex signaling network when a simple linear ‘one-to-one’ regulatory pathway seems sufficient to monitor cell density? Here, we will discuss different molecular mechanisms employed by various QS systems that ensure productive and specific QS responses. Moreover, the network architectures of some well-characterized QS circuits will be reviewed to understand how the wiring of different regulatory components achieves different biological goals. PMID:27354348

  7. Hidden in plain view: degeneracy in complex systems.

    PubMed

    Mason, P H; Domínguez D, J F; Winter, B; Grignolio, A

    2015-02-01

    Degeneracy is a word with two meanings. The popular usage of the word denotes deviance and decay. In scientific discourse, degeneracy refers to the idea that different pathways can lead to the same output. In the biological sciences, the concept of degeneracy has been ignored for a few key reasons. Firstly, the word "degenerate" in popular culture has negative, emotionally powerful associations that do not inspire scientists to consider its technical meaning. Secondly, the tendency of searching for single causes of natural and social phenomena means that scientists can overlook the multi-stranded relationships between cause and effect. Thirdly, degeneracy and redundancy are often confused with each other. Degeneracy refers to dissimilar structures that are functionally similar while redundancy refers to identical structures. Degeneracy can give rise to novelty in ways that redundancy cannot. From genetic codes to immunology, vaccinology and brain development, degeneracy is a crucial part of how complex systems maintain their functional integrity. This review article discusses how the scientific concept of degeneracy was imported into genetics from physics and was later introduced to immunology and neuroscience. Using examples of degeneracy in immunology, neuroscience and linguistics, we demonstrate that degeneracy is a useful way of understanding how complex systems function. Reviewing the history and theoretical scope of degeneracy allows its usefulness to be better appreciated, its coherency to be further developed, and its application to be more quickly realized. PMID:25543071

  8. Etoile Project : Social Intelligent ICT-System for very large scale education in complex systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgine, P.; Johnson, J.

    2009-04-01

    The project will devise new theory and implement new ICT-based methods of delivering high-quality low-cost postgraduate education to many thousands of people in a scalable way, with the cost of each extra student being negligible (< a few Euros). The research will create an in vivo laboratory of one to ten thousand postgraduate students studying courses in complex systems. This community is chosen because it is large and interdisciplinary and there is a known requirement for courses for thousand of students across Europe. The project involves every aspect of course production and delivery. Within this the research focused on the creation of a Socially Intelligent Resource Mining system to gather large volumes of high quality educational resources from the internet; new methods to deconstruct these to produce a semantically tagged Learning Object Database; a Living Course Ecology to support the creation and maintenance of evolving course materials; systems to deliver courses; and a ‘socially intelligent assessment system'. The system will be tested on one to ten thousand postgraduate students in Europe working towards the Complex System Society's title of European PhD in Complex Systems. Étoile will have a very high impact both scientifically and socially by (i) the provision of new scalable ICT-based methods for providing very low cost scientific education, (ii) the creation of new mathematical and statistical theory for the multiscale dynamics of complex systems, (iii) the provision of a working example of adaptation and emergence in complex socio-technical systems, and (iv) making a major educational contribution to European complex systems science and its applications.

  9. SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burl, Michael; Wang, Esther; Enke, Brian; Merline, William J.

    2013-01-01

    Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software

  10. Toward a new system approach of complexity in geomorphology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masson, E.

    2012-04-01

    Since three decades the conceptual vision of catchment and fluvial geomorphology is strongly based on the "fluvial system" (S. A. Schumm, 1977) and the "river continuum system" (R. L. Vannote et al., 1980) concepts that can be embedded in a classical physical "four dimensions system" (C. Amoros and G.-E. Petts, 1993). Catchment and network properties, sediment and water budgets and their time-space variations are playing a major role in this geomorpho-ecological approach of hydro-geomorphosystems in which human impacts are often considered as negative externalities. The European Water Framework Directive (i.e. WFD, Directive 2000/60/EC) and its objective of good environmental status is addressing the question of fluvial/catchment/landscape geomorphology and its integration into IWRM in such a sustainable way that deeply brings back society and social sciences into the water system analysis. The DPSIR methodology can be seen as an attempt to cope with the analysis of unsustainable consequences of society's water-sediment-landscape uses, environmental pressures and their consequences on complex fluvial dynamics. Although more and more scientific fields are engaged in this WFD objective there's still a lack of a global theory that could integrate geomorphology into the multi-disciplinary brainstorming discussion about sustainable use of water resources. Our proposition is to promote and discuss a trans-disciplinary approach of catchments and fluvial networks in which concepts can be broadly shared across scientific communities. The objective is to define a framework for thinking and analyzing geomorphological issues within a whole "Environmental and Social System" (i.e. ESS, E. Masson 2010) with a common set of concepts and "meta-concepts" that could be declined and adapted in any scientific field for any purpose connected with geomorphology. We assume that geomorphological research can benefit from a six dynamic dimensions system approach based on structures

  11. Complex dynamics in systems with many degrees of freedom

    SciTech Connect

    Bourzutschky, M.S.

    1993-01-01

    Complex dynamics in systems with many degrees of freedom are investigated with two classes of computational models. The models in the first class are motivated by the experimental observation of spatiotemporal chaos in strongly driven convection cells, and are designed to display chaotic evolution in discrete space and time. A local conservation law is incorporated into the equations of motion, and its importance is discussed. The central limit theorem is applied to characterize fluctuations over large uncorrelated regions, and a simple theory predicting the wavelength properties of the models is developed and verified numerically. The applicability of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and the maximum entropy principle to nonequilibrium systems is tested extensively. A possible application to an experimental situation is outlined. The models in the second class are motivated by the concept of self-organized criticality, which predicts that driven dynamical systems naturally evolve to a statistically stationary state displaying scale invariance. Several scenarios of how scaling behavior can occur in dynamical systems are discussed, using ideas from dimensional analysis. A simple mean field theory for a large class of cellular automata models is developed. Extensive numerical simulations are described which test the validity of scaling forms and demonstrate possible errors resulting from finite size effects.

  12. Active Learning for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Burl, Michael C.; Wang, Esther

    2009-01-01

    Physics-based simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. Such codes provide the highest-fidelity representation of system behavior, but are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. For example, conducting an exhaustive sweep over a d-dimensional input parameter space with k-steps along each dimension requires k(sup d) simulation trials (translating into k(sup d) CPU-days for one of our current simulations). An alternative is directed exploration in which the next simulation trials are cleverly chosen at each step. Given the results of previous trials, supervised learning techniques (SVM, KDE, GP) are applied to build up simplified predictive models of system behavior. These models are then used within an active learning framework to identify the most valuable trials to run next. Several active learning strategies are examined including a recently-proposed information-theoretic approach. Performance is evaluated on a set of thirteen synthetic oracles, which serve as surrogates for the more expensive simulations and enable the experiments to be replicated by other researchers.

  13. Finger mouse system based on computer vision in complex backgrounds

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Jun; Zhang, Xiong

    2013-12-01

    This paper presents a human-computer interaction system and realizes a real-time virtual mouse. Our system emulates the dragging and selecting functions of a mouse by recognizing bare hands, hence the control style is simple and intuitive. A single camera is used to capture hand images and a DSP chip is embedded as the image processing platform. To deal with complex backgrounds, particularly where skin-like or moving objects appear, we develop novel hand recognition algorithms. Hand segmentation is achieved by skin color cue and background difference. Each input image is corrected according to the luminance and then skin color is extracted by Gaussian model. We employ a Camshift tracking algorithm which receives feedbacks from the recognition module. In fingertip recognition, a method combining template matching and circle drawing is proposed. Our system has advantages of good real-time performance, easy integration and energy conservation. Experiments show that the system is robust to the scaling and rotation of hands.

  14. Multi-Element Unstructured Analyses of Complex Valve Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sulyma, Peter (Technical Monitor); Ahuja, Vineet; Hosangadi, Ashvin; Shipman, Jeremy

    2004-01-01

    The safe and reliable operation of high pressure test stands for rocket engine and component testing places an increased emphasis on the performance of control valves and flow metering devices. In this paper, we will present a series of high fidelity computational analyses of systems ranging from cryogenic control valves and pressure regulator systems to cavitating venturis that are used to support rocket engine and component testing at NASA Stennis Space Center. A generalized multi-element framework with sub-models for grid adaption, grid movement and multi-phase flow dynamics has been used to carry out the simulations. Such a framework provides the flexibility of resolving the structural and functional complexities that are typically associated with valve-based high pressure feed systems and have been difficult to deal with traditional CFD methods. Our simulations revealed a rich variety of flow phenomena such as secondary flow patterns, hydrodynamic instabilities, fluctuating vapor pockets etc. In the paper, we will discuss performance losses related to cryogenic control valves, and provide insight into the physics of the dominant multi-phase fluid transport phenomena that are responsible for the choking like behavior in cryogenic control elements. Additionally, we will provide detailed analyses of the modal instability that is observed in the operation of the dome pressure regulator valve. Such instabilities are usually not localized and manifest themselves as a system wide phenomena leading to an undesirable chatter at high flow conditions.

  15. Practical reliability and uncertainty quantification in complex systems : final report.

    SciTech Connect

    Grace, Matthew D.; Ringland, James T.; Marzouk, Youssef M.; Boggs, Paul T.; Zurn, Rena M.; Diegert, Kathleen V.; Pebay, Philippe Pierre; Red-Horse, John Robert

    2009-09-01

    The purpose of this project was to investigate the use of Bayesian methods for the estimation of the reliability of complex systems. The goals were to find methods for dealing with continuous data, rather than simple pass/fail data; to avoid assumptions of specific probability distributions, especially Gaussian, or normal, distributions; to compute not only an estimate of the reliability of the system, but also a measure of the confidence in that estimate; to develop procedures to address time-dependent or aging aspects in such systems, and to use these models and results to derive optimal testing strategies. The system is assumed to be a system of systems, i.e., a system with discrete components that are themselves systems. Furthermore, the system is 'engineered' in the sense that each node is designed to do something and that we have a mathematical description of that process. In the time-dependent case, the assumption is that we have a general, nonlinear, time-dependent function describing the process. The major results of the project are described in this report. In summary, we developed a sophisticated mathematical framework based on modern probability theory and Bayesian analysis. This framework encompasses all aspects of epistemic uncertainty and easily incorporates steady-state and time-dependent systems. Based on Markov chain, Monte Carlo methods, we devised a computational strategy for general probability density estimation in the steady-state case. This enabled us to compute a distribution of the reliability from which many questions, including confidence, could be addressed. We then extended this to the time domain and implemented procedures to estimate the reliability over time, including the use of the method to predict the reliability at a future time. Finally, we used certain aspects of Bayesian decision analysis to create a novel method for determining an optimal testing strategy, e.g., we can estimate the 'best' location to take the next test to

  16. Mathematical test criteria for filtering complex systems: Plentiful observations

    SciTech Connect

    Castronovo, E.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A.J.

    2008-03-20

    An important emerging scientific issue is the real time filtering through observations of noisy turbulent signals for complex systems as well as the statistical accuracy of spatio-temporal discretizations for such systems. These issues are addressed here in detail for the setting with plentiful observations for a scalar field through explicit mathematical test criteria utilizing a recent theory [A.J. Majda, M.J. Grote, Explicit off-line criteria for stable accurate time filtering of strongly unstable spatially extended systems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (4) (2007) 1124-1129]. For plentiful observations, the number of observations equals the number of mesh points. These test criteria involve much simpler decoupled complex scalar filtering test problems with explicit formulas and elementary numerical experiments which are developed here as guidelines for filter performance. The theory includes information criteria to avoid filter divergence with large model errors, asymptotic Kalman gain, filter stability, and accurate filtering with small ensemble size as well as rigorous results delineating the role of various turbulent spectra for filtering under mesh refinement. These guidelines are also applied to discrete approximations for filtering the stochastically forced dissipative advection equation with very turbulent and noisy signals with either an equipartition of energy or -5/3 turbulent spectrum with infrequent observations as severe test problems. The theory and companion simulations demonstrate accurate statistical filtering in this context with implicit schemes with large time step with very small ensemble sizes and even with unstable explicit schemes under appropriate circumstances provided the filtering strategies are guided by the off-line theoretical criteria. The surprising failure of other strongly stable filtering strategies is also explained through these off-line criteria.

  17. Mathematical test criteria for filtering complex systems: Plentiful observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castronovo, E.; Harlim, J.; Majda, A. J.

    2008-03-01

    An important emerging scientific issue is the real time filtering through observations of noisy turbulent signals for complex systems as well as the statistical accuracy of spatio-temporal discretizations for such systems. These issues are addressed here in detail for the setting with plentiful observations for a scalar field through explicit mathematical test criteria utilizing a recent theory [A.J. Majda, M.J. Grote, Explicit off-line criteria for stable accurate time filtering of strongly unstable spatially extended systems, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104 (4) (2007) 1124-1129]. For plentiful observations, the number of observations equals the number of mesh points. These test criteria involve much simpler decoupled complex scalar filtering test problems with explicit formulas and elementary numerical experiments which are developed here as guidelines for filter performance. The theory includes information criteria to avoid filter divergence with large model errors, asymptotic Kalman gain, filter stability, and accurate filtering with small ensemble size as well as rigorous results delineating the role of various turbulent spectra for filtering under mesh refinement. These guidelines are also applied to discrete approximations for filtering the stochastically forced dissipative advection equation with very turbulent and noisy signals with either an equipartition of energy or -5/3 turbulent spectrum with infrequent observations as severe test problems. The theory and companion simulations demonstrate accurate statistical filtering in this context with implicit schemes with large time step with very small ensemble sizes and even with unstable explicit schemes under appropriate circumstances provided the filtering strategies are guided by the off-line theoretical criteria. The surprising failure of other strongly stable filtering strategies is also explained through these off-line criteria.

  18. Approaching complexity by stochastic methods: From biological systems to turbulence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Friedrich, Rudolf; Peinke, Joachim; Sahimi, Muhammad; Reza Rahimi Tabar, M.

    2011-09-01

    This review addresses a central question in the field of complex systems: given a fluctuating (in time or space), sequentially measured set of experimental data, how should one analyze the data, assess their underlying trends, and discover the characteristics of the fluctuations that generate the experimental traces? In recent years, significant progress has been made in addressing this question for a class of stochastic processes that can be modeled by Langevin equations, including additive as well as multiplicative fluctuations or noise. Important results have emerged from the analysis of temporal data for such diverse fields as neuroscience, cardiology, finance, economy, surface science, turbulence, seismic time series and epileptic brain dynamics, to name but a few. Furthermore, it has been recognized that a similar approach can be applied to the data that depend on a length scale, such as velocity increments in fully developed turbulent flow, or height increments that characterize rough surfaces. A basic ingredient of the approach to the analysis of fluctuating data is the presence of a Markovian property, which can be detected in real systems above a certain time or length scale. This scale is referred to as the Markov-Einstein (ME) scale, and has turned out to be a useful characteristic of complex systems. We provide a review of the operational methods that have been developed for analyzing stochastic data in time and scale. We address in detail the following issues: (i) reconstruction of stochastic evolution equations from data in terms of the Langevin equations or the corresponding Fokker-Planck equations and (ii) intermittency, cascades, and multiscale correlation functions.

  19. A system of three-dimensional complex variables

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martin, E. Dale

    1986-01-01

    Some results of a new theory of multidimensional complex variables are reported, including analytic functions of a three-dimensional (3-D) complex variable. Three-dimensional complex numbers are defined, including vector properties and rules of multiplication. The necessary conditions for a function of a 3-D variable to be analytic are given and shown to be analogous to the 2-D Cauchy-Riemann equations. A simple example also demonstrates the analogy between the newly defined 3-D complex velocity and 3-D complex potential and the corresponding ordinary complex velocity and complex potential in two dimensions.

  20. Modelling Complex Systems by Integration of Agent-Based and Dynamical Systems Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bosse, Tibor; Sharpanskykh, Alexei; Treur, Jan

    Existing models for complex systems are often based on quantitative, numerical methods such as Dynamical Systems Theory (DST) [Port and Gelder 1995]. Such approaches often use numerical variables to describe global aspects and specify how they affect each other over time. An advantage of such approaches is that numerical approximation methods and software are available for simulation.