Science.gov

Sample records for ensemble streamflow forecasts

  1. A multisite seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracken, Cameron; Rajagopalan, Balaji; Prairie, James

    2010-03-01

    We present a technique for providing seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts at several locations simultaneously on a river network. The framework is an integration of two recent approaches: the nonparametric multimodel ensemble forecast technique and the nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique. The four main components of the proposed framework are as follows: (1) an index gauge streamflow is constructed as the sum of flows at all the desired spatial locations; (2) potential predictors of the spring season (April-July) streamflow at this index gauge are identified from the large-scale ocean-atmosphere-land system, including snow water equivalent; (3) the multimodel ensemble forecast approach is used to generate the ensemble flow forecast at the index gauge; and (4) the ensembles are disaggregated using a nonparametric space-time disaggregation technique resulting in forecast ensembles at the desired locations and for all the months within the season. We demonstrate the utility of this technique in skillful forecast of spring seasonal streamflows at four locations in the Upper Colorado River Basin at different lead times. Where applicable, we compare the forecasts to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center's Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and the National Resource Conservation Service "coordinated" forecast, which is a combination of the ESP, Statistical Water Supply, a principal component regression technique, and modeler knowledge. We find that overall, the proposed method is equally skillful to existing operational models while tending to better predict wet years. The forecasts from this approach can be a valuable input for efficient planning and management of water resources in the basin.

  2. Streamflow Ensemble Generation using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Watkins, D. W.; O'Connell, S.; Wei, W.; Nykanen, D.; Mahmoud, M.

    2002-12-01

    Although significant progress has been made in understanding the correlation between large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns and regional streamflow anomalies, there is a general perception that seasonal climate forecasts are not being used to the fullest extent possible for optimal water resources management. Possible contributing factors are limited knowledge and understanding of climate processes and prediction capabilities, noise in climate signals and inaccuracies in forecasts, and hesitancy on the part of water managers to apply new information or methods that could expose them to greater liability. This work involves a decision support model based on streamflow ensembles developed for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Central Texas. Predicative skill is added to ensemble forecasts that are based on climatology by conditioning the ensembles on observable climate indicators, including streamflow (persistence), soil moisture, land surface temperatures, and large-scale recurrent patterns such as the El Ni¤o-Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the North Atlantic Oscillation. A Bayesian procedure for updating ensemble probabilities is outlined, and various skill scores are reviewed for evaluating forecast performance. Verification of the ensemble forecasts using a resampling procedure indicates a small but potentially significant improvement in forecast skill that could be exploited in seasonal water management decisions. The ultimate goal of this work will be explicit incorporation of climate forecasts in reservoir operating rules and estimation of the value of the forecasts.

  3. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill

    2010-05-01

    We present a statistical procedure that generates short-term streamflow ensemble forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, forecasts operationally produced by the National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFC). The resulting ensemble forecast provides an estimate of the uncertainty in the single-valued forecast to aid risk-based decision making by the emergency managers and by the users of the forecast products and services. The single-valued forecasts are produced at a 6-hr time step for 5 days into the future, and reflect single-valued short-term quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF) and various run-time modifications (MOD), or manual data assimilation, by human forecasters to reduce various sources of error in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates 5 day-ahead ensemble traces of streamflow from a very parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecasts, QPF and recent streamflow observations. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a 10-year archive of the single-valued river stage forecasts for six forecast points in Oklahoma produced operationally by the Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC). To evaluate the procedure, we carried out dependent and leave-one-year-out cross validation. The resulting ensemble hindcasts are then verified using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS) developed at the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD).

  4. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France - Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, G.; Martin, E.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Massart, S.; Ricci, S.; Regimbeau, F.; Habets, F.

    2010-08-01

    The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Ensemble streamflow forecast systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics) ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc

  5. A past discharge assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France - Part 2: Impact on the ensemble streamflow forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, G.; Martin, E.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Massart, S.; Ricci, S.; Regimbeau, F.; Habets, F.

    2010-04-01

    The use of ensemble streamflow forecasts is developing in the international flood forecasting services. Such systems can provide more accurate forecasts and useful information about the uncertainty of the forecasts, thus improving the assessment of risks. Nevertheless, these systems, like all hydrological forecasts, suffer from errors on initialization or on meteorological data, which lead to hydrological prediction errors. This article, which is the second part of a 2-part article, concerns the impacts of initial states, improved by a streamflow assimilation system, on an ensemble streamflow prediction system over France. An assimilation system was implemented to improve the streamflow analysis of the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) hydro-meteorological suite, which initializes the ensemble streamflow forecasts at Météo-France. This assimilation system, using the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) and modifying the initial soil moisture states, showed an improvement of the streamflow analysis with low soil moisture increments. The final states of this suite were used to initialize the ensemble streamflow forecasts of Météo-France, which are based on the SIM model and use the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 10-day Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). Two different configurations of the assimilation system were used in this study: the first with the classical SIM model and the second using improved soil physics in ISBA. The effects of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts were assessed for these two configurations, and a comparison was made with the original (i.e. without data assimilation and without the improved physics) ensemble streamflow forecasts. It is shown that the assimilation system improved most of the statistical scores usually computed for the validation of ensemble predictions (RMSE, Brier Skill Score and its decomposition, Ranked Probability Skill Score, False Alarm Rate, etc.), especially for the first

  6. Towards reliable seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts for ephemeral rivers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, James; Wang, Qj; Li, Ming; Robertson, David

    2016-04-01

    Despite their inherently variable nature, ephemeral rivers are an important water resource in many dry regions. Water managers are likely benefit considerably from even mildly skilful ensemble forecasts of streamflow in ephemeral rivers. As with any ensemble forecast, forecast uncertainty - i.e., the spread of the ensemble - must be reliably quantified to allow users of the forecasts to make well-founded decisions. Correctly quantifying uncertainty in ephemeral rivers is particularly challenging because of the high incidence of zero flows, which are difficult to handle with conventional statistical techniques. Here we apply a seasonal streamflow forecasting system, the model for generating Forecast Guided Stochastic Scenarios (FoGSS), to 26 Australian ephemeral rivers. FoGSS uses post-processed ensemble rainfall forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere prediction system to force an initialised monthly rainfall runoff model, and then applies a staged hydrological error model to describe and propagate hydrological uncertainty in the forecast. FoGSS produces 12-month streamflow forecasts; as forecast skill declines with lead time, the forecasts are designed to transit seamlessly to stochastic scenarios. The ensemble rainfall forecasts used in FoGSS are known to be unbiased and reliable, and we concentrate here on the hydrological error model. The FoGSS error model has several features that make it well suited to forecasting ephemeral rivers. First, FoGSS models the error after data is transformed with a log-sinh transformation. The log-sinh transformation is able to normalise even highly skewed data and homogenise its variance, allowing us to assume that errors are Gaussian. Second, FoGSS handles zero values using data censoring. Data censoring allows streamflow in ephemeral rivers to be treated as a continuous variable, rather than having to model the occurrence of non-zero values and the distribution of non-zero values separately. This greatly simplifies parameter

  7. Post Processing Numerical Weather Prediction Model Rainfall Forecasts for Use in Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D.; Bennett, J.; Ward, P.; Wang, Q. J.

    2012-12-01

    Through the water information research and development alliance (WIRADA) project, CSIRO is conducting research to improve flood and short-term streamflow forecasting services delivered by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. WIRADA aims to build and test systems to generate ensemble flood and short-term streamflow forecasts with lead times of up to 10 days by integrating rainfall forecasts from Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and hydrological modelling. Here we present an overview of the latest progress towards developing this system. Rainfall during the forecast period is a major source of uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Ensemble rainfall forecasts are used in streamflow forecasting to characterise the rainfall uncertainty. In Australia, NWP models provide forecasts of rainfall and other weather conditions for lead times of up to 10 days. However, rainfall forecasts from Australian NWP models are deterministic and often contain systematic errors. We use a simplified Bayesian joint probability (BJP) method to post-process rainfall forecasts from the latest generation of Australian NWP models. The BJP method generates reliable and skilful ensemble rainfall forecasts. The post-processed rainfall ensembles are then used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall runoff model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts is evaluated on a number of Australian catchments and the benefits of using post processed rainfall forecasts are demonstrated.

  8. Toward an Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Over the Entire France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rousset, F.; Habets, F.; Noilhan, J.; Morel, S.; Le Moigne, P.

    2004-12-01

    Since the year 2003, the French National Weather Service (Meteo-France) uses an operationnal real-time system that provides a daily monitoring of the water budget, streamflows and aquifer levels over the entire France : the SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) system. This coupled model is composed of the ISBA surface scheme and of the distributed hydrological model MODCOU. The system is used in a forced mode, with the atmospheric forcing derived from observations through the use of the SAFRAN analysis system. Such a system has been validated over 3 large french basins~: the Rhone, the Adour-Garonne and the Seine basins. It was shown that the system satisfactorily reproduces the water and energy budgets, as well as the observed streamflows, aquifer levels and snow-packs. In particular, the main long-duration floods of the Seine are well simulated. The SIM system is also used for streamflow forecasting. As a first step, experiments of determinist forecasts have been performed over the Rhone basin, using 2- and 3-day quantitive precipitation forecast. The encouraging results showed the potential of SIM for flood forecasting. As a next step, an ensemble streamflow prediction system is now being built. The forecasts from the Ensemble Prediction System of the ECMWF are used to force the system. The initial conditions of soil moisture, aquifer levels, etc. are given by the operationnal run of SIM, and the results are analysed for each forecast day. This system is expected to give 10-day forecasts of the streamflow of the main french rivers with a measure of the associated confidence, which is greatly valuable for flood warning and water management.

  9. Skill of a global seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasting system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, Naze; Winsemius, Hessel; Weerts, Albrecht; van Beek, Rens; Bierkens, Marc

    2013-04-01

    Forecasting of water availability and scarcity is a prerequisite for managing the risks and opportunities caused by the inter-annual variability of streamflow. Reliable seasonal streamflow forecasts are necessary to prepare for an appropriate response in disaster relief, management of hydropower reservoirs, water supply, agriculture and navigation. Seasonal hydrological forecasting on a global scale could be valuable especially for developing regions of the world, where effective hydrological forecasting systems are scarce. In this study, we investigate the forecasting skill of the global seasonal streamflow forecasting system FEWS-World, using the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB. FEWS-World has been setup within the European Commission 7th Framework Programme project Global Water Scarcity Information Service (GLOWASIS). Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The assessment in historical simulation mode used a meteorological forcing based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the ERA-40 reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). We assessed the skill of the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing past discharge extremes in 20 large rivers of the world. This preliminary assessment concluded that the prospects for seasonal forecasting with PCR-GLOBWB or comparable models are positive. However this assessment did not include actual meteorological forecasts. Thus the meteorological forcing errors were not assessed. Yet, in a forecasting setup, the predictive skill of a hydrological forecasting system is affected by errors due to uncertainty from numerical weather prediction models. For the assessment in retroactive forecasting mode, the model is forced with actual ensemble forecasts from the seasonal forecast archives of ECMWF. Skill is assessed at 78 stations on large river basins across the globe, for all the months of

  10. Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 2. Streamflow verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, James D.; He, Minxue; Regonda, Satish; Wu, Limin; Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun

    2014-11-01

    Retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow were generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for a 20-year period between 1979 and 1999. The hindcasts were produced for two basins in each of four River Forecast Centers (RFCs), namely the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC, the Colorado Basin RFC, the California-Nevada RFC and the Middle Atlantic RFC. In a companion paper, temperature and precipitation hindcasts were produced with the Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP) and verified against observed temperature and precipitation, respectively. Inputs to the MEFP comprised raw precipitation and temperature forecasts from the frozen (circa 1997) version of the NWS Global Forecast System (MEFP-GFS) and a conditional or "resampled" climatology (MEFP-CLIM). For this paper, streamflow hindcasts were produced with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System and were bias-corrected with the Ensemble Post-processor (EnsPost). In order to separate the meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties, the raw streamflow forecasts were verified against simulated streamflows, as well as observed flows. Also, when verifying the bias-corrected streamflow forecasts, the total skill was decomposed into contributions from the MEFP-GFS and the EnsPost. In general, the streamflow forecasts are substantially more skillful when using the MEFP-GFS together with the EnsPost than using the MEFP with resampled climatology alone. However, both the raw and bias-corrected streamflow forecasts have lower biases, stronger correlations and are more skillful in CB- and CN-RFCs than AB- and MA-RFCs. In addition, there are strong variations in forecast quality with streamflow amount, forecast lead time, season and aggregation period. The relative importance of the meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties also varies between basins and is modulated by the same controls on forecast quality. For example, the MEFP

  11. Ensemble Streamflow Forecast Improvements in NYC's Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L.; Weiss, W. J.; Porter, J.; Schaake, J. C.; Day, G. N.; Sheer, D. P.

    2013-12-01

    Like most other water supply utilities, New York City's Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) has operational challenges associated with drought and wet weather events. During drought conditions, DEP must maintain water supply reliability to 9 million customers as well as meet environmental release requirements downstream of its reservoirs. During and after wet weather events, DEP must maintain turbidity compliance in its unfiltered Catskill and Delaware reservoir systems and minimize spills to mitigate downstream flooding. Proactive reservoir management - such as release restrictions to prepare for a drought or preventative drawdown in advance of a large storm - can alleviate negative impacts associated with extreme events. It is important for water managers to understand the risks associated with proactive operations so unintended consequences such as endangering water supply reliability with excessive drawdown prior to a storm event are minimized. Probabilistic hydrologic forecasts are a critical tool in quantifying these risks and allow water managers to make more informed operational decisions. DEP has recently completed development of an Operations Support Tool (OST) that integrates ensemble streamflow forecasts, real-time observations, and a reservoir system operations model into a user-friendly graphical interface that allows its water managers to take robust and defensible proactive measures in the face of challenging system conditions. Since initial development of OST was first presented at the 2011 AGU Fall Meeting, significant improvements have been made to the forecast system. First, the monthly AR1 forecasts ('Hirsch method') were upgraded with a generalized linear model (GLM) utilizing historical daily correlations ('Extended Hirsch method' or 'eHirsch'). The development of eHirsch forecasts improved predictive skill over the Hirsch method in the first week to a month from the forecast date and produced more realistic hydrographs on the tail

  12. Generation of ensemble streamflow forecasts using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    As water demand increases in the western United States, so does the need for accurate streamflow forecasts. We describe a method for generating ensemble streamflow forecasts (1-15 days) using an enhanced version of the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). Forecasts are produced for three snowmelt-dominated ...

  13. Ensemble Data Assimilation for Streamflow Forecasting: Experiments with Ensemble Kalman Filter and Particle Filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Gebremichael, M.; Hopson, T. M.; Wojick, R.

    2011-12-01

    We present results of data assimilation of ground discharge observation and remotely sensed soil moisture observations into Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SACSMA) model in a small watershed (1593 km2) in Minnesota, the Unites States. Specifically, we perform assimilation experiments with Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) and Particle Filter (PF) in order to improve streamflow forecast accuracy at six hourly time step. The EnKF updates the soil moisture states in the SACSMA from the relative errors of the model and observations, while the PF adjust the weights of the state ensemble members based on the likelihood of the forecast. Results of the improvements of each filter over the reference model (without data assimilation) will be presented. Finally, the EnKF and PF are coupled together to further improve the streamflow forecast accuracy.

  14. Short-term ensemble streamflow forecasting using operationally-produced single-valued streamflow forecasts - A Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Regonda, Satish Kumar; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lawrence, Bill; Brown, James D.; Demargne, Julie

    2013-08-01

    We present a statistical procedure for generating short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts from single-valued, or deterministic, streamflow forecasts produced operationally by the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). The resulting ensemble streamflow forecast provides an estimate of the predictive uncertainty associated with the single-valued forecast to support risk-based decision making by the forecasters and by the users of the forecast products, such as emergency managers. Forced by single-valued quantitative precipitation and temperature forecasts (QPF, QTF), the single-valued streamflow forecasts are produced at a 6-h time step nominally out to 5 days into the future. The single-valued streamflow forecasts reflect various run-time modifications, or "manual data assimilation", applied by the human forecasters in an attempt to reduce error from various sources in the end-to-end forecast process. The proposed procedure generates ensemble traces of streamflow from a parsimonious approximation of the conditional multivariate probability distribution of future streamflow given the single-valued streamflow forecast, QPF, and the most recent streamflow observation. For parameter estimation and evaluation, we used a multiyear archive of the single-valued river stage forecast produced operationally by the NWS Arkansas-Red River Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) in Tulsa, Oklahoma. As a by-product of parameter estimation, the procedure provides a categorical assessment of the effective lead time of the operational hydrologic forecasts for different QPF and forecast flow conditions. To evaluate the procedure, we carried out hindcasting experiments in dependent and cross-validation modes. The results indicate that the short-term streamflow ensemble hindcasts generated from the procedure are generally reliable within the effective lead time of the single-valued forecasts and well capture the skill of the single-valued forecasts. For smaller

  15. Constraining the Ensemble Kalman Filter for improved streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maxwell, Deborah; Jackson, Bethanna; McGregor, James

    2016-04-01

    Data assimilation techniques such as the Kalman Filter and its variants are often applied to hydrological models with minimal state volume/capacity constraints. Flux constraints are rarely, if ever, applied. Consequently, model states can be adjusted beyond physically reasonable limits, compromising the integrity of model output. In this presentation, we investigate the effect of constraining the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) on forecast performance. An EnKF implementation with no constraints is compared to model output with no assimilation, followed by a 'typical' hydrological implementation (in which mass constraints are enforced to ensure non-negativity and capacity thresholds of model states are not exceeded), and then a more tightly constrained implementation where flux as well as mass constraints are imposed to limit the rate of water movement within a state. A three year period (2008-2010) with no significant data gaps and representative of the range of flows observed over the fuller 1976-2010 record was selected for analysis. Over this period, the standard implementation of the EnKF (no constraints) contained eight hydrological events where (multiple) physically inconsistent state adjustments were made. All were selected for analysis. Overall, neither the unconstrained nor the "typically" mass-constrained forecasts were significantly better than the non-filtered forecasts; in fact several were significantly degraded. Flux constraints (in conjunction with mass constraints) significantly improved the forecast performance of six events relative to all other implementations, while the remaining two events showed no significant difference in performance. We conclude that placing flux as well as mass constraints on the data assimilation framework encourages physically consistent state updating and results in more accurate and reliable forward predictions of streamflow for robust decision-making. We also experiment with the observation error, and find that this

  16. Evaluation of an operational streamflow forecasting system driven by ensemble precipitation forecasts : a case study for the Gatineau watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, M.-A.; Perreault, L.; Tremblay, D.; Gaudet, J.; Minville, M.; Anctil, F.

    2009-04-01

    Among the various sources of uncertainty for hydrological forecasts, the uncertainty linked to meteorological inputs prevail. Precipitation is particularly difficult to forecast and observed values are often poor representation of the true precipitation field. In order to account for the uncertainty related to precipitation data, it can be interesting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts by feeding a hydrological model with ensemble precipitation forecasts issued by atmospheric models. In this study, we use ensemble precipitation forecasts to drive Hydrotel, a distributed hydrological model. We concentrate on the Gatineau watershed, which serves as an experimental watershed for Hydro-Québec, the major hydropower producer in Quebec. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate that ensemble precipitation forecasts can improve streamflow forecasting for the watershed of interest. The ensemble precipitation forecasts were produced by Environnement Canada from march first of 2002 to december 31st of 2003. They were obtained using two atmospheric models, SEF (8 members plus the control deterministic forecast) and GEM (8 members). The corresponding deterministic precipitation forecast issued by SEF model is also used with Hydrotel in order to compare ensemble streamflow forecasts with their deterministic counterparts. The quality of the precipitation forecasts is first assessed, using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), the logarithmic score, rank histograms and reliability diagrams. The performance of the corresponding streamflow forecasts obtained at the end of the process is also evaluated using the same quality assessment tools.

  17. A one year experience of an operationnal streamflow ensemble forecasting chain taking into account human expertise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Moulin, L.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.; Bernard, P.; Le Lay, M.; Zalachori, I.; Chardon, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety of both power plants and dams, they also enables to meet environmental standards and to improve water resources management and decision making. Indeed, hydrometeorological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of uncertainties from both meteorological and hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available information, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and from human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and has been in use since 2011: last year more than 1200 ensemble streamflow forecasts have been made on more than 30 watersheds covering different spatial scales. This chain is specific because in one hand it takes into account both meteorological and hydrological uncertainties by pre/post-processing, and on the other hand, the human expertise is encouraged : the forecasters can modify forecasted distributions of mean daily rainfall, mean daily air temperature and streamflow. Firstly, this paper presents the different components of this operational hydrometeorological ensemble forecasting chain. Secondly, performances of this chain are assessed on some particular cases. The main steps of this chain are the following: (1) Pre-processing of meteorological ensembles (temperature and rainfall bias and reliability correction), (2) streamflow forecasts using a rainfall-runoff model and streamflow data assimilation and (3) post-processing of streamflow ensembles. The pre-processing of meteorological input is based on the correction (bias and reliability) of EPS-ECMWF forecasts by statistical analog forecasts based on past observed geopotential fields. The post-processing of streamflow forecasts is based on a simple statistical modelisation of the empirical model error by streamflow class and lead-time. The performance

  18. Evaluation of Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter for Real-Time Assimilation of Streamflow Data in Operational Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafieei Nasab, A.; Seo, D.; LEE, H.; Kim, S.

    2012-12-01

    Various data assimilation (DA) methods have been used and are being explored for use in operational streamflow forecasting. For ensemble forecasting, Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an appealing candidate for familiarity and relative simplicity. EnKF, however, is optimal only if the observation equation is linear. As such, without an iterative approach, EnKF may not be appropriate for assimilating streamflow data into soil moisture accounting models. Maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), on the other hand, is not subject to the above limitation. Also, as an ensemble extension of variational assimilation (VAR), MLEF offers a strong connection with the traditional single-valued forecast process through the control, or the maximum likelihood, solution. In this work, we apply MLEF to the Sacramento (SAC) soil moisture accounting model and unit hydrograph (UH) for assimilation of streamflow, precipitation and potential evaporation (PE) data. A comparison between VAR and the control run of MLEF is made to verify the performance of MLEF, including that of the gradient approximation which does not require adjoint code. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to assess the performance of MLEF with respect to the ensemble size, the number of streamflow observations assimilated in each cycle, the statistical parameters for observation errors in streamflow, precipitation and PE, and for model error associated with the runoff from SAC. We also identify the science issues and challenges toward operationalization.

  19. Navigating a Path Toward Operational, Short-term, Ensemble Based, Probablistic Streamflow Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, R. K.; Schaake, J.

    2004-12-01

    The National Weather Service (NWS) has federal responsibility for issuing public flood warnings in the United States. Additionally, the NWS has been engaged in longer range water resources forecasts for many years, particularly in the Western U.S. In the past twenty years, longer range forecasts have increasingly incorporated ensemble techniques. Ensemble techniques are attractive because they allow a great deal of flexibility, both temporally and in content. This technique also provides for the influence of additional forcings (i.e. ENSO), through either pre or post processing techniques. More recently, attention has turned to the use of ensemble techniques in the short-term streamflow forecasting process. While considerably more difficult, the development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts has clear application and value for many NWS customers and partners. During flood episodes, expensive mitigation actions are initialed or withheld and critical reservoir management decisions are made in the absence of uncertainty and risk information. Limited emergency services resources and the optimal use of water resources facilities necessitates the development of a risk-based decision making process. The development of reliable short-term probabilistic streamflow forecasts are an essential ingredient in the decision making process. This paper addresses the utility of short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts and the considerations that must be addressed as techniques and operational capabilities are developed. Verification and validation information are discussed from both a scientific and customer perspective. Education and training related to the interpretation and use of ensemble products are also addressed.

  20. Developing Climate-Informed Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts over the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, W. P.; Lhotak, J.; Werner, K.; Stokes, M.

    2014-12-01

    As climate change is realized, the assumption of hydrometeorologic stationarity embedded within many hydrologic models is no longer valid over the Colorado River Basin. As such, resource managers have begun to request more information to support decisions, specifically with regards to the incorporation of climate change information and operational risk. To this end, ensemble methodologies have become increasingly popular among the scientific and forecasting communities, and resource managers have begun to incorporate this information into decision support tools and operational models. Over the Colorado River Basin, reservoir operations are determined, in large part, by forecasts issued by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC). The CBRFC produces both single value and ensemble forecasts for use by resource managers in their operational decision-making process. These ensemble forecasts are currently driven by a combination of daily updating model states used as initial conditions and weather forecasts plus historical meteorological information used to generate forecasts with the assumption that past hydroclimatological conditions are representative of future hydroclimatology. Recent efforts have produced updated bias-corrected and spatially downscaled projections of future climate over the Colorado River Basin. In this study, the historical climatology used as input to the CBRFC forecast model is adjusted to represent future projections of climate based on data developed by the updated projections of future climate data. Ensemble streamflow forecasts reflecting the impacts of climate change are then developed. These forecasts are subsequently compared to non-informed ensemble streamflow forecasts to evaluate the changing range of streamflow forecasts and risk over the Colorado River Basin. Ensemble forecasts may be compared through the use of a reservoir operations planning model, providing resource managers with ensemble information regarding changing

  1. Application of a Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System and an Ensemble Classification Method to Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahlow, M.; Moehrlen, C.; Joergensen, J.; Hundecha, Y.

    2007-12-01

    Europe has experienced a number of unusually long-lasting and intense rainfall events in the last decade, resulting in severe floods in most European countries. Ensemble forecasts emerged as a valuable resource to provide decision makers in case of emergency with adequate information to protect downstream areas. However, forecasts should not only provide a best guess of the state of the stream network, but also an estimate of the range of possible outcomes. Ensemble forecast techniques are a suitable tool to obtain the required information. Furthermore a wide range of uncertainty that may impact hydrological forecasts can be accounted for using an ensemble of forecasts. The forecasting system used in this study is based on a multi-scheme ensemble prediction method and forecasts the meteorological uncertainty on synoptic scales as well as the resulting forecast error in weather derived products. Statistical methods are used to directly transform raw weather output to derived products and thereby utilize the statistical capabilities of each ensemble forecast. The forecasting system MS-EPS (Multi-Scheme Ensemble Prediction System) used in this study is a limited area ensemble prediction system using 75 different numerical weather prediction (NWP) model parameterisations. These individual 'schemes' each differ in their formulation of the fast meteorological processes. The MS-EPS forecasts are used as input for a hydrological model (HBV) to generate an ensemble of streamflow forecasts. Determining the most probable forecast from an ensemble of forecasts requires suitable statistical tools. They must enable a forecaster to interpret the model output, to condense the information and to provide the desired product. For this purpose, a probabilistic multi-trend filter (pmt-filter) for statistical post-processing of the hydrological ensemble forecasts is used in this study. An application of the forecasting system is shown for a watershed located in the eastern part of

  2. Hindcast experiments of ensemble streamflow forecasting for the Paraopeba river (Brazil)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collischonn, W.; Meller, A.; Dias, P. L. S.; Moreira, D. S.

    2012-04-01

    Streamflow forecasts are routinely produced and used in Brazil to predict inflow to major hydropower reservoirs . In this field of application quantitative precipitation forecasts are becoming increasingly used to extend the range and increase the skill of streamflow forecasts. Forecasting systems designed to provide flood alert, on the other side, are relatively rare in Brazil, and are often based on simplified river routing models. However, a number of recent floods with significant loss of lives and economical impact is now motivating the creation of a new governmental institution dedicated to natural disaster and flood forecasting. This will further motivate the incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) as input data to hydrological flood forecasting models, with the aim of increasing forecast lead time. In this context ensemble meteorological forecasts will be increasingly useful, since it is expected that ensembles can give some idea of the confidence level of the forecasts, and that extremes can be better captured by a high number of NWP runs with different initial conditions, or with different meteorological models. Silva Dias and Moreira (2006) organized a grand ensemble including several different models and model members for South America. We used forecasts of individual models of this grand ensemble to run a series of streamflow hindcast experiments (in forecast mode), using the MGB-IPH hydrological model. These tests were conducted in the Paraopeba river basin, which is a tributary of the São Francisco river, located in Minas Gerais State, in a Tropical region in the range from 21 S to 19 S. Results of 72 hour streamflow forecasts were compared to hourly observed discharge at Porto Mesquita gauging station, were the drainage area is 10280 square kilometers, during the Austral Summer of 2011. Results were assessed by visual inspection of hydrographs and by the analysis of a number of summary statistics. These preliminary results suggest that

  3. Multimodel ensembles of streamflow forecasts: Role of predictor state in developing optimal combinations

    PubMed Central

    Devineni, Naresh; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Ghosh, Sujit

    2008-01-01

    A new approach for developing multimodel streamflow forecasts is presented. The methodology combines streamflow forecasts from individual models by evaluating their skill, represented by rank probability score (RPS), contingent on the predictor state. Using average RPS estimated over the chosen neighbors in the predictor state space, the methodology assigns higher weights for a model that has better predictability under similar predictor conditions. We assess the performance of the proposed algorithm by developing multimodel streamflow forecasts for Falls Lake Reservoir in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina (NC), by combining streamflow forecasts developed from two low-dimensional statistical models that use sea-surface temperature conditions as underlying predictors. To evaluate the proposed scheme thoroughly, we consider a total of seven multimodels that include existing multimodel combination techniques such as combining based on long-term predictability of individual models and by simple pooling of ensembles. Detailed nonparametric hypothesis tests comparing the performance of seven multimodels with two individual models show that the reduced RPS from multimodel forecasts developed using the proposed algorithm is statistically significant from the RPSs of individual models and from the RPSs of existing multimodel techniques. The study also shows that adding climatological ensembles improves the multimodel performance resulting in reduced average RPS. Contingency analyses on categorical (tercile) forecasts show that the proposed multimodel combination technique reduces average Brier score and total number of false alarms, resulting in improved reliability of forecasts. However, adding multiple models with climatology also increases the number of missed targets (in comparison to individual models' forecasts) which primarily results from the reduction of increased resolution that is exhibited in the individual models' forecasts under various forecast

  4. A past discharges assimilation system for ensemble streamflow forecasts over France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Martin, E.; Regimbeau, F.; Mahfouf, J.-F.; Massart, S.; Ricci, S.; Habets, F.

    2010-05-01

    The coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is developed at Météo-France for many years. This fully distributed catchment model is used in a pre-operational mode since 2005 for producing mid-range ensemble streamflow forecasts based on the 51-member 10-day ECMWF EPS. A past discharges assimilation system has been implemented in order to improve the initial states of these ensemble streamflow forecasts. The daily observed discharges of a selection of 186 gauging stations distributed over France were used over a 19-month period. The analysis operator is the Best Linear Unbiased Operator (BLUE), and 3 configurations of the assimilation system were tested, each one adjusting the soil moisture in a different way. An optional improvement of the physics of the model (the exponential profile of the hydraulic conductivity in the soil) was tested. The performance of the system was assessed for a selection of 148 assimilated stations, as well as for a selection of 49 totally independent stations for each configuration. A global improvement of the simulated streamflows was found, and the modifications imposed by the BLUE remained low. Finally, the impact of the assimilation system on the ensemble streamflow forecasts, and the impact of the improved physics were assessed separately in comparison with the operational streamflow forecasts. The results show a significant improvement of the forecasts, and the best configuration demonstrate the benefit of the method along the 10-day range, even for very high flows and for stations where assimilation was not directly performed.

  5. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  6. A multi-model hydrologic ensemble for seasonal streamflow forecasting in the western U.S.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bohn, T. J.; Wood, A. W.; Akanda, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2005-12-01

    Since 2003, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model has been applied in real time over the western U.S. for experimental ensemble hydrologic prediction at lead times of six months to a year. VIC hydrologic initial conditions are produced from gridded station observations during a two-year runup period prior to the forecast date; and hydrologic forecast ensembles are driven by climate forecasts from several sources, including NCEP and NASA climate model outputs, CPC official seasonal outlooks and, as a baseline forecast, Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We are now in the process of expanding this approach to include forecasts made from a Bayesian combination of the results from a suite of land surface models. Our initial set of LSMs includes VIC, the NWS grid-based Sacramento model (HL-RMS) and the NCEP NOAH model. All three LSMs are implemented on the 1/8 degree grid used by the North American Land Data Assimilation System (N-LDAS). Here we present preliminary results from several river basins in the Western US, focusing on both retrospective deterministic simulations and retrospective ESP-based ensemble forecasts and forecast error properties. We compare linear regression and Bayesian methods of combining model results, and investigate seasonal and geographic variations in forecast skill. Our data set includes 20+ years of 1-year, ESP-based, 25-member ensemble forecasts for each model, using both April 1 and October 1 as starting dates, from several basins including the Salmon River, ID, the Feather River, CA, and the San Juan River, UT.

  7. Assessing short to medium range ensemble streamflow forecast approaches in small to medium scale watersheds across CONUS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, A. W.; Newman, A. J.; Brekke, L. D.; Arnold, J. R.; Clark, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    As part of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service, the US National Weather Service River Forecasting Centers have implemented short to medium range ensemble streamflow forecasts. Hydrologic models are forced with meteorological forecast ensembles derived using a downscaling and calibration technique, MEFP, that leverages correlations at multiple temporal scales between large scale GEFS forecast ensemble mean and local scale observed precipitation and temperature. Strengths of MEFP include its use of multi-decade hindcast for calibration of local scale forecasts and production of verification information, but possible weaknesses include the use of precipitation and temperature ensemble mean information only, which requires the statistical synthesis of ensemble members. We explore whether using a larger set of atmospheric predictors and full ensemble members from the GEFS can lead to greater meteorological and hydrological predictability. Using 30+ year streamflow hindcasts, we evaluate 1-15 day streamflow predictions using the Snow-17/Sacramento hydrologic modeling approach in small to medium-sized watersheds across CONUS. We compare the MEFP approach and performance with regressive and analog-based statistical downscaling and calibration methods that rely on a range of atmospheric predictors to produce watershed-scale ensemble forecasts. This presentation describes the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches.

  8. An Integrated Risk Approach for Assessing the Use of Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts in Hydroelectric Reservoir Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lowry, T. S.; Wigmosta, M.; Barco, J.; Voisin, N.; Bier, A.; Coleman, A.; Skaggs, R.

    2012-12-01

    This paper presents an integrated risk approach using ensemble streamflow forecasts for optimizing hydro-electric power generation. Uncertainty in the streamflow forecasts are translated into integrated risk by calculating the deviation of an optimized release schedule that simultaneously maximizes power generation and environmental performance from release schedules that maximize the two objectives individually. The deviations from each target are multiplied by the probability of occurrence and then summed across all probabilities to get the integrated risk. The integrated risk is used to determine which operational scheme exposes the operator to the least amount of risk or conversely, what are the consequences of basing future operations on a particular prediction. Decisions can be made with regards to the tradeoff between power generation, environmental performance, and exposure to risk. The Hydropower Seasonal Concurrent Optimization for Power and Environment (HydroSCOPE) model developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) is used to model the flow, temperature, and power generation and is coupled with the DAKOTA (Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications) optimization package to identify the maximum potential power generation, the maximum environmental performance, and the optimal operational scheme that maximizes both for each instance of the ensemble forecasts. The ensemble forecasts were developed in a collaborative effort between the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the University of Washington to develop an Enhanced Hydrologic Forecasting System (EHFS) that incorporates advanced ensemble forecasting approaches and algorithms, spatiotemporal datasets, and automated data acquisition and processing. Both the HydroSCOPE model and the EHFS forecast tool are being developed as part of a larger, multi-laboratory water-use optimization project funded through the US Department of Energy. The simulations were based on the

  9. Potential application of wavelet neural network ensemble to forecast streamflow for flood management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasiviswanathan, K. S.; He, Jianxun; Sudheer, K. P.; Tay, Joo-Hwa

    2016-05-01

    Streamflow forecasting, especially the long lead-time forecasting, is still a very challenging task in hydrologic modeling. This could be due to the fact that the forecast accuracy measured in terms of both the amplitude and phase or temporal errors and the forecast precision/reliability quantified in terms of the uncertainty significantly deteriorate with the increase of the lead-time. In the model performance evaluation, the conventional error metrics, which primarily quantify the amplitude error and do not explicitly account for the phase error, have been commonly adopted. For the long lead-time forecasting, the wavelet based neural network (WNN) among a variety of advanced soft computing methods has been shown to be promising in the literature. This paper presented and compared WNN and artificial neural network (ANN), both of which were combined with the ensemble method using block bootstrap sampling (BB), in terms of the forecast accuracy and precision at various lead-times on the Bow River, Alberta, Canada. Apart from conventional model performance metrics, a new index, called percent volumetric error, was proposed, especially for quantifying the phase error. The uncertainty metrics including percentage of coverage and average width were used to evaluate the precision of the modeling approaches. The results obtained demonstrate that the WNN-BB consistently outperforms the ANN-BB in both the categories of the forecast accuracy and precision, especially in the long lead-time forecasting. The findings strongly suggest that the WNN-BB is a robust modeling approach for streamflow forecasting and thus would aid in flood management.

  10. Combining Statistical and Ensemble Streamflow Predictions to Cope with Consensus Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mirfenderesgi, G.; Najafi, M.; Moradkhani, H.

    2012-12-01

    Monthly and seasonal water supply outlooks are used for water resource planning and management including the industrial and agriculture water allocation as well as reservoir operations. Currently consensus forecasts are jointly issued by the operational agencies in the Western US based on statistical regression equations and ensemble streamflow predictions. However, an objective method is needed to combine the forecasts from these methods. In this study monthly and seasonal streamflow predictions are generated from various hydrologic and statistical simulations including: Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC), Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS), Conceptual Hydrologic MODel (HYMOD), and Principal and Independent Component Regression (PCR and ICR), etc. The results are optimally combined by several objective multi-modeling methods. The increase in forecast accuracy is assessed in comparison with the available best and worst prediction. The precision of each multi-model method is also estimated. The study is performed over the Lake Granby, located in the headwaters of the Colorado River Basin. Overall the results show improvements in both monthly and seasonal forecasts as compared with single model simulations.

  11. Operational value of ensemble streamflow forecasts for hydropower production: A Canadian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Tremblay, Denis; Luc, Perreault; François, Anctil

    2010-05-01

    increased hydropower production. The ensemble precipitation forecasts extend from March 1st of 2002 to December 31st of 2003. They were obtained using two atmospheric models, SEF (8 members plus the control deterministic forecast) and GEM (8 members). The corresponding deterministic precipitation forecast issued by SEF model is also used within HYDROTEL in order to compare ensemble streamflow forecasts with their deterministic counterparts. Although this study does not incorporate all the sources of uncertainty, precipitation is certainly the most important input for hydrological modeling and conveys a great portion of the total uncertainty. References: Fortin, J.P., Moussa, R., Bocquillon, C. and Villeneuve, J.P. 1995: HYDROTEL, un modèle hydrologique distribué pouvant bénéficier des données fournies par la télédétection et les systèmes d'information géographique, Revue des Sciences de l'Eau, 8(1), 94-124. Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T. and Schaer, C. 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8 (2), 281-291. Krzysztofowicz, R. 2001: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 2-9. Murphy, A.H. 1994: Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: An overview of methods, results and issues, Meteorological Applications, 1, 69-73. Mylne, K.R. 2002: Decision-Making from probability forecasts based on forecast value, Meteorological Applications, 9, 307-315. Laio, F. and Tamea, S. 2007: Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1267-1277. Roulin, E. 2007: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 725-737. Velazquez, J.-A., Petit, T., Lavoie, A., Boucher, M.-A., Turcotte, R., Fortin, V. and Anctil, F. 2009: An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble

  12. GloFAS - global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, L.; Burek, P.; Dutra, E.; Krzeminski, B.; Muraro, D.; Thielen, J.; Pappenberger, F.

    2013-03-01

    Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of populations affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. GloFAS is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the earth.

  13. Operational value of ensemble streamflow forecasts for hydropower production: A Canadian case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Tremblay, Denis; Luc, Perreault; François, Anctil

    2010-05-01

    increased hydropower production. The ensemble precipitation forecasts extend from March 1st of 2002 to December 31st of 2003. They were obtained using two atmospheric models, SEF (8 members plus the control deterministic forecast) and GEM (8 members). The corresponding deterministic precipitation forecast issued by SEF model is also used within HYDROTEL in order to compare ensemble streamflow forecasts with their deterministic counterparts. Although this study does not incorporate all the sources of uncertainty, precipitation is certainly the most important input for hydrological modeling and conveys a great portion of the total uncertainty. References: Fortin, J.P., Moussa, R., Bocquillon, C. and Villeneuve, J.P. 1995: HYDROTEL, un modèle hydrologique distribué pouvant bénéficier des données fournies par la télédétection et les systèmes d'information géographique, Revue des Sciences de l'Eau, 8(1), 94-124. Jaun, S., Ahrens, B., Walser, A., Ewen, T. and Schaer, C. 2008: A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 8 (2), 281-291. Krzysztofowicz, R. 2001: The case for probabilistic forecasting in hydrology, Journal of Hydrology, 249, 2-9. Murphy, A.H. 1994: Assessing the economic value of weather forecasts: An overview of methods, results and issues, Meteorological Applications, 1, 69-73. Mylne, K.R. 2002: Decision-Making from probability forecasts based on forecast value, Meteorological Applications, 9, 307-315. Laio, F. and Tamea, S. 2007: Verification tools for probabilistic forecasts of continuous hydrological variables, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 1267-1277. Roulin, E. 2007: Skill and relative economic value of medium-range hydrological ensemble predictions, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 11, 725-737. Velazquez, J.-A., Petit, T., Lavoie, A., Boucher, M.-A., Turcotte, R., Fortin, V. and Anctil, F. 2009: An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble

  14. A New Approach in Generating Meteorological Forecasts for Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting using Multivariate Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khajehei, S.; Madadgar, S.; Moradkhani, H.

    2014-12-01

    The reliability and accuracy of hydrological predictions are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model parameters and model structure. To reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications, one approach is to reduce the uncertainty in meteorological forcing by using the statistical methods based on the conditional probability density functions (pdf). However, one of the requirements for current methods is to assume the Gaussian distribution for the marginal distribution of the observed and modeled meteorology. Here we propose a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop the conditional distribution of precipitation forecast needed in deriving a hydrologic model for a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin. Copula functions are introduced as an alternative approach in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are capable to model the joint behavior of variables with any level of correlation and dependency. The method is applied to the monthly forecast of CPC with 0.25x0.25 degree resolution to reproduce the PRISM dataset over 1970-2000. Results are compared with Ensemble Pre-Processor approach as a common procedure used by National Weather Service River forecast centers in reproducing observed climatology during a ten-year verification period (2000-2010).

  15. A Distributed Modeling System for Short-Term to Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Forecasting in Snowmelt Dominated Basins

    SciTech Connect

    Wigmosta, Mark S.; Gill, Muhammad K.; Coleman, Andre M.; Prasad, Rajiv; Vail, Lance W.

    2007-12-01

    This paper describes a distributed modeling system for short-term to seasonal water supply forecasts with the ability to utilize remotely-sensed snow cover products and real-time streamflow measurements. Spatial variability in basin characteristics and meteorology is represented using a raster-based computational grid. Canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, and simplified soil water movement are simulated in each computational unit. The model is run at a daily time step with surface runoff and subsurface flow aggregated at the basin scale. This approach allows the model to be updated with spatial snow cover and measured streamflow using an Ensemble Kalman-based data assimilation strategy that accounts for uncertainty in weather forecasts, model parameters, and observations used for updating. Model inflow forecasts for the Dworshak Reservoir in northern Idaho are compared to observations and to April-July volumetric forecasts issued by the Natural Resource Conservation Service (NRCS) for Water Years 2000 – 2006. October 1 volumetric forecasts are superior to those issued by the NRCS, while March 1 forecasts are comparable. The ensemble spread brackets the observed April-July volumetric inflows in all years. Short-term (one and three day) forecasts also show excellent agreement with observations.

  16. Ensemble streamflow forecasting experiments in a tropical basin: The São Francisco river case study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando Mainardi; Collischonn, Walter; Meller, Adalberto; Botelho, Luiz César Mendes

    2014-11-01

    The present study shows experiments of ensemble forecasting applied to a large tropical river basin, where such forecasting methodologies have many potential applications. The case study is the Três Marias hydroelectric power plant basin (Brazil), on the São Francisco river, where forecast results are particularly important for reservoir operation and downstream flood control. Results showed some benefits in the use of ensembles, particularly for the reservoir inflow on flooding events, and in comparison to the deterministic values given by the control member of the ensemble and by the ensemble mean. The study also discusses the improvements that must be tested and implemented in order to achieve better results, what is particularly important for the smaller basins within the study case. Despite the necessary improvements mentioned, the results suggest that benefits can result from the application of ensemble forecasts for hydropower plants with large basins within the Brazilian energy system.

  17. Lessons learned from four years of actively using River Forecast Center Ensemble Streamflow Predictions to inform reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Polebitski, A.; Palmer, R.; Meaker, B.

    2012-12-01

    The National Weather Service's River Forecast Centers (RFCs), located throughout the US, produce operational streamflow forecasts for short term application and long-term lead forecasts at selected locations. These forecasts are targeted for a variety of users, including water supply management, flood control, hydropower production, navigation, and recreation. This presentation highlights the challenges and successes associated with the use of RFC produced ensemble streamflow predictions (ESP) in generating system operations forecasts over the past four years for Snohomish County Public Utility District #1's (SnoPUD) Henry Jackson hydropower system. This research documents a multiyear collaboration between SnoPUD and academic researchers. The collaboration began with a proof of concept study in 2007 and evolved into a weekly decision support activity that has been ongoing since 2008 ( documented in Alemu et al. 2010). The Alemu et al. paper demonstrates the usefulness of ESP forecasts in hydropower operations decision making. This paper focuses on the value of forecasts and a decision support system (DSS) in improving skills in operating reservoir systems. During the application period, the model provided weekly guidance on meeting operational objectives and a probabilistic approach to quantifying system vulnerability during critical periods such as floods and drought. The ESP forecasts and the DSS were heavily used during periods of uncertainty and less so during periods of high system constraint or low system risk.

  18. A retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrologic event: a case study of Hurricane Irene and on the Hudson River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saleh, Firas; Ramaswamy, Venkatsundar; Georgas, Nickitas; Blumberg, Alan F.; Pullen, Julie

    2016-07-01

    This paper investigates the uncertainties in hourly streamflow ensemble forecasts for an extreme hydrological event using a hydrological model forced with short-range ensemble weather prediction models. A state-of-the art, automated, short-term hydrologic prediction framework was implemented using GIS and a regional scale hydrological model (HEC-HMS). The hydrologic framework was applied to the Hudson River basin ( ˜ 36 000 km2) in the United States using gridded precipitation data from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and was validated against streamflow observations from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS). Finally, 21 precipitation ensemble members of the latest Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS/R) were forced into HEC-HMS to generate a retrospective streamflow ensemble forecast for an extreme hydrological event, Hurricane Irene. The work shows that ensemble stream discharge forecasts provide improved predictions and useful information about associated uncertainties, thus improving the assessment of risks when compared with deterministic forecasts. The uncertainties in weather inputs may result in false warnings and missed river flooding events, reducing the potential to effectively mitigate flood damage. The findings demonstrate how errors in the ensemble median streamflow forecast and time of peak, as well as the ensemble spread (uncertainty) are reduced 48 h pre-event by utilizing the ensemble framework. The methodology and implications of this work benefit efforts of short-term streamflow forecasts at regional scales, notably regarding the peak timing of an extreme hydrologic event when combined with a flood threshold exceedance diagram. Although the modeling framework was implemented on the Hudson River basin, it is flexible and applicable in other parts of the world where atmospheric reanalysis products and streamflow data are available.

  19. Description and validation of a streamflow assimilation system for a distributed hydrometeorological model over France. Impacts on the ensemble streamflow forecasts.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, G.; Martin, E.; Mahfouf, J. F.; Massart, S.; Ricci, S.; Regimbeau, F.; Habets, F.

    2009-09-01

    SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM) is a distributed hydro-meteorological model used at Météo-France to predict soil water content and river streamflows. In order to produce a more accurate initial state for the ensemble streamflow forecasts systems based on SIM, an assimilation system is developed at Météo-France. This assimilation system uses past streamflow measurements in order to assess the best initial state of soil water content of the model for ensemble streamflow prediction. The data assimilation system is developed with a modular software (PALM, from the Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, CERFACS), and is based on the Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) method. Data from a maximum of 186 gauge stations are assimilated over France, as well as for single stations, than for embedded stations networks. The first part of the study focuses on the selection of the best model variables for the assimilation process : root zone layer only, root zone and deep layers taken together, and finally taken apart. Two versions of the physics in SIM, including or not an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity in the soil, are tested for each one of the three configurations. A set of classical hydrological scores are performed on a 18-month period in order to describe the performances of the experiments. This work showed a significant improvement of the Nash criteria and a decrease of the root mean square error for the configuration using the exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity in the soil and with the state variable including the root zone and deep layers taken together. The assimilation system seems more efficient for floods than for low flows. The second part of the work is about the impact of the assimilated initial states of the model on two ensemble streamflow prediction systems (ESPS) based on SIM and the ECMWF EPS and the Météo-France PEARP EPS. The scores are assessed on the same 18-month period, and validated

  20. Verification of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow forecasts from the NOAA/NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS): 1. Experimental design and forcing verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brown, James D.; Wu, Limin; He, Minxue; Regonda, Satish; Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun

    2014-11-01

    Retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow were generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) for a 20-year period between 1979 and 1999. The hindcasts were produced for two basins in each of four River Forecast Centers (RFCs), namely the Arkansas-Red Basin RFC, the Colorado Basin RFC, the California-Nevada RFC, and the Middle Atlantic RFC. Precipitation and temperature forecasts were produced with the HEFS Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor (MEFP). Inputs to the MEFP comprised "raw" precipitation and temperature forecasts from the frozen (circa 1997) version of the NWS Global Forecast System (GFS) and a climatological ensemble, which involved resampling historical observations in a moving window around the forecast valid date ("resampled climatology"). In both cases, the forecast horizon was 1-14 days. This paper outlines the hindcasting and verification strategy, and then focuses on the quality of the temperature and precipitation forecasts from the MEFP. A companion paper focuses on the quality of the streamflow forecasts from the HEFS. In general, the precipitation forecasts are more skillful than resampled climatology during the first week, but comprise little or no skill during the second week. In contrast, the temperature forecasts improve upon resampled climatology at all forecast lead times. However, there are notable differences among RFCs and for different seasons, aggregation periods and magnitudes of the observed and forecast variables, both for precipitation and temperature. For example, the MEFP-GFS precipitation forecasts show the highest correlations and greatest skill in the California Nevada RFC, particularly during the wet season (November-April). While generally reliable, the MEFP forecasts typically underestimate the largest observed precipitation amounts (a Type-II conditional bias). As a statistical technique, the MEFP cannot detect, and thus

  1. SWIFT2: Software for continuous ensemble short-term streamflow forecasting for use in research and operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perraud, Jean-Michel; Bennett, James C.; Bridgart, Robert; Robertson, David E.

    2016-04-01

    Research undertaken through the Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) has laid the foundations for continuous deterministic and ensemble short-term forecasting services. One output of this research is the software Short-term Water Information Forecasting Tools version 2 (SWIFT2). SWIFT2 is developed for use in research on short term streamflow forecasting techniques as well as operational forecasting services at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The variety of uses in research and operations requires a modular software system whose components can be arranged in applications that are fit for each particular purpose, without unnecessary software duplication. SWIFT2 modelling structures consist of sub-areas of hydrologic models, nodes and links with in-stream routing and reservoirs. While this modelling structure is customary, SWIFT2 is built from the ground up for computational and data intensive applications such as ensemble forecasts necessary for the estimation of the uncertainty in forecasts. Support for parallel computation on multiple processors or on a compute cluster is a primary use case. A convention is defined to store large multi-dimensional forecasting data and its metadata using the netCDF library. SWIFT2 is written in modern C++ with state of the art software engineering techniques and practices. A salient technical feature is a well-defined application programming interface (API) to facilitate access from different applications and technologies. SWIFT2 is already seamlessly accessible on Windows and Linux via packages in R, Python, Matlab and .NET languages such as C# and F#. Command line or graphical front-end applications are also feasible. This poster gives an overview of the technology stack, and illustrates the resulting features of SWIFT2 for users. Research and operational uses share the same common core C++ modelling shell for consistency, but augmented by different software modules suitable for each context. The

  2. Comparison of streamflow prediction skills from NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT toward an ensemble flood forecasting framework over large scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajib, M. A.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Du, L.; Merwade, V.; Lin, P.

    2015-12-01

    Considering the differences in how individual models represent physical processes for runoff generation and streamflow routing, use of ensemble output is desirable in an operational streamflow estimation and flood forecasting framework. To enable the use of ensemble streamflow, comparison of multiple hydrologic models at finer spatial resolution over a large domain is yet to be explored. The objective of this work is to compare streamflow prediction skills from three different land surface/hydrologic modeling frameworks: NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT, over the Ohio River Basin with a drainage area of 491,000 km2. For a uniform comparison, all the three modeling frameworks share the same setup with common weather inputs, spatial resolution, and gauge stations being employed in the calibration procedure. The runoff output from NOAH-MP and VIC land surface models is routed through a vector-based river routing model named RAPID, that is set up on the high resolution NHDPlus reaches and catchments. SWAT model is used with its default tightly coupled surface-subsurface hydrology and channel routing components to obtain streamflow for each NHDPlus reach. Model simulations are performed in two modes, including: (i) hindcasting/calibration mode in which the models are calibrated against USGS daily streamflow observations at multiple locations, and (ii) validation mode in which the calibrated models are executed at 3-hourly time interval for historical flood events. In order to have a relative assessment on the model-specific nature of biases during storm events as well as dry periods, time-series of surface runoff and baseflow components at the specific USGS gauging locations are extracted from corresponding observed/simulated streamflow data using a recursive digital filter. The multi-model comparison presented here provides insights toward future model improvements and also serves as the first step in implementing an operational ensemble flood forecasting framework

  3. Toward Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using SNODAS Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barth, C.; Boyle, D. P.; Lamorey, G. W.; Bassett, S. D.

    2007-12-01

    As part of the Water 2025 initiative, researchers at the Desert Research Institute in collaboration with the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation are developing and improving water decision support system (DSS) tools to make seasonal streamflow forecasts for management and operations of water resources in the mountainous western United States. Streamflow forecasts in these areas may have errors that are directly related to uncertainties resulting from the lack of direct high resolution snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements. The purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of improving the accuracy of streamflow forecasts through the use of Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) products, which are high-resolution daily estimates of snow cover and associated hydrologic variables such as SWE and snowmelt runoff that are available for the coterminous United States. To evaluate the benefit of incorporating the SNODAS product into streamflow forecasts, a variety of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) are generated using the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). A series of manual and automatic calibrations of PRMS to different combinations of measured (streamflow) and estimated (SNODAS SWE) hydrologic variables is performed for several watersheds at various scales of spatial resolution. This study, which is embedded in the constant effort to improve streamflow forecasts and hence water operations DSS, shows the potential of using a product such as SNODAS SWE estimates to decrease parameter uncertainty related to snow variables and enhance forecast skills early in the forecast season.

  4. Impact of streamflow data assimilation and length of the verification period on the quality of short-term ensemble hydrologic forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randrianasolo, A.; Thirel, G.; Ramos, M. H.; Martin, E.

    2014-11-01

    Data assimilation has gained wide recognition in hydrologic forecasting due mainly to its capacity to improve the quality of short-term forecasts. In this study, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the impact of discharge data assimilation on the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modeling conceptualizations of catchment response. The sensitivity of the performance metrics to the length of the verification period is also investigated. The hydrological modeling approaches are: the coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU, a distributed model with a data assimilation procedure that uses streamflow measurements to assess the initial state of soil water content that optimizes discharge simulations, and the lumped soil moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP, which assimilates directly the last observed discharge to update the state of the routing store. The models are driven by the weather ensemble prediction system PEARP of Météo-France, which is based on the global spectral ARPEGE model zoomed over France. It runs 11 perturbed members for a forecast range of 60 h. Forecast and observed data are available for 86 catchments over a 17-month period (March 2005-July 2006) for both models and for 82 catchments over a 52-month period (April 2005-July 2009) for the GRP model. The first dataset is used to investigate the impact of streamflow data assimilation on forecast quality, while the second is used to evaluate the impact of the length of the verification period on the assessment of forecast quality. Forecasts are compared to daily observed discharges and scores are computed for lead times 24 h and 48 h. Results indicate an overall good performance of both hydrological models forced by the PEARP ensemble predictions when the models are run with their data assimilation procedures. In general, when data assimilation is performed, the quality of the forecasts increases: median differences between

  5. Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Haiden, Thomas; Richardson, David; Salamon, Peter

    2014-09-01

    In operational hydrological forecasting systems, improvements are directly related to the continuous monitoring of the forecast performance. An efficient evaluation framework must be able to spot issues and limitations and provide feedback to the system developers. In regional systems, the expertise of analysts on duty is a major component of the daily evaluation. On the other hand, large scale systems need to be complemented with semi-automated tools to evaluate the quality of forecasts equitably in every part of their domain. This article presents the current status of the monitoring and evaluation framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). For each grid point of the European river network, 10-day ensemble streamflow predictions are evaluated against a reference simulation which uses observed meteorological fields as input to a calibrated hydrological model. Performance scores are displayed over different regions, forecast lead times, basin sizes, as well as in time, considering average scores for moving 12-month windows of forecasts. Skilful predictions are found in medium to large rivers over the whole 10-day range. On average, performance drops significantly in river basins with upstream area smaller than 300 km2, partly due to underestimation of the runoff in mountain areas. Model limitations and recommendations to improve the evaluation framework are discussed in the final section.

  6. Precipitation and temperature ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schaake, J.; Demargne, J.; Hartman, R.; Mullusky, M.; Welles, E.; Wu, L.; Herr, H.; Fan, X.; Seo, D. J.

    2007-04-01

    A procedure is presented to construct ensemble forecasts from single-value forecasts of precipitation and temperature. This involves dividing the spatial forecast domain and total forecast period into a number of parts that are treated as separate forecast events. The spatial domain is divided into hydrologic sub-basins. The total forecast period is divided into time periods, one for each model time step. For each event archived values of forecasts and corresponding observations are used to model the joint distribution of forecasts and observations. The conditional distribution of observations for a given single-value forecast is used to represent the corresponding probability distribution of events that may occur for that forecast. This conditional forecast distribution subsequently is used to create ensemble members that vary in space and time using the "Schaake Shuffle" (Clark et al, 2004). The resulting ensemble members have the same space-time patterns as historical observations so that space-time joint relationships between events that have a significant effect on hydrological response tend to be preserved. Forecast uncertainty is space and time-scale dependent. For a given lead time to the beginning of the valid period of an event, forecast uncertainty depends on the length of the forecast valid time period and the spatial area to which the forecast applies. Although the "Schaake Shuffle" procedure, when applied to construct ensemble members from a time-series of single value forecasts, may preserve some of this scale dependency, it may not be sufficient without additional constraint. To account more fully for the time-dependent structure of forecast uncertainty, events for additional "aggregate" forecast periods are defined as accumulations of different "base" forecast periods. The generated ensemble members can be ingested by an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction system to produce ensemble forecasts of streamflow and other hydrological variables that reflect

  7. Probabilistic Downscaling Methods for Developing Categorical Streamflow Forecasts using Climate Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A. H.

    2015-12-01

    Statistical information from climate forecast ensembles can be utilized in developing probabilistic streamflow forecasts for providing the uncertainty in streamflow forecast potential. This study examines the use of Multinomial Logistic Regression (MLR) in downscaling the probabilistic information from the large-scale climate forecast ensembles into a point-scale categorical streamflow forecasts. Performance of MLR in developing one-month lead categorical forecasts is evaluated for various river basins over the US Sunbelt. Comparison of MLR with the estimated categorical forecasts from Principle Component Regression (PCR) method under both cross-validation and split-sampling validation reveals that in general the forecasts from MLR has better performance and lower Rank Probability Score (RPS) compared to the PCR forecasts. In addition, MLR performs better than PCR method particularly in arid basins that exhibit strong skewness in seasonal flows with records of distinct dry years. A theoretical underpinning for this improved performance of MLR is also provided.

  8. Monthly hydrometeorological ensemble prediction of streamflow droughts and corresponding drought indices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fundel, F.; Jörg-Hess, S.; Zappa, M.

    2013-01-01

    Streamflow droughts, characterized by low runoff as consequence of a drought event, affect numerous aspects of life. Economic sectors that are impacted by low streamflow are, e.g., power production, agriculture, tourism, water quality management and shipping. Those sectors could potentially benefit from forecasts of streamflow drought events, even of short events on the monthly time scales or below. Numerical hydrometeorological models have increasingly been used to forecast low streamflow and have become the focus of recent research. Here, we consider daily ensemble runoff forecasts for the river Thur, which has its source in the Swiss Alps. We focus on the evaluation of low streamflow and of the derived indices as duration, severity and magnitude, characterizing streamflow droughts up to a lead time of one month. The ECMWF VarEPS 5-member ensemble reforecast, which covers 18 yr, is used as forcing for the hydrological model PREVAH. A thorough verification reveals that, compared to probabilistic peak-flow forecasts, which show skill up to a lead time of two weeks, forecasts of streamflow droughts are skilful over the entire forecast range of one month. For forecasts at the lower end of the runoff regime, the quality of the initial state seems to be crucial to achieve a good forecast quality in the longer range. It is shown that the states used in this study to initialize forecasts satisfy this requirement. The produced forecasts of streamflow drought indices, derived from the ensemble forecasts, could be beneficially included in a decision-making process. This is valid for probabilistic forecasts of streamflow drought events falling below a daily varying threshold, based on a quantile derived from a runoff climatology. Although the forecasts have a tendency to overpredict streamflow droughts, it is shown that the relative economic value of the ensemble forecasts reaches up to 60%, in case a forecast user is able to take preventive action based on the forecast.

  9. Using Ensemble Streamflows for Power Marketing at Bonneville Power Administration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barton, S. B.; Koski, P.

    2014-12-01

    Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) is a federal non-profit agency within the Pacific Northwest responsible for marketing the power generated from 31 federal hydro projects throughout the Columbia River Basin. The basin encompasses parts of five states and portions of British Columbia, Canada. BPA works with provincial entities, federal and state agencies, and tribal members to manage the water resources for a variety of purposes including flood risk management, power generation, fisheries, irrigation, recreation, and navigation. This basin is subject to significant hydrologic variability in terms of seasonal volume and runoff shape from year to year which presents new water management challenges each year. The power generation planning group at BPA includes a team of meteorologists and hydrologists responsible for preparing both short-term (up to three weeks) and mid-term (up to 18 months) weather and streamflow forecasts including ensemble streamflow data. Analysts within the mid-term planning group are responsible for running several different hydrologic models used for planning studies. These models rely on these streamflow ensembles as a primary input. The planning studies are run bi-weekly to help determine the amount of energy available, or energy inventory, for forward marketing (selling or purchasing energy up to a year in advance). These studies are run with the objective of meeting the numerous multi-purpose objectives of the basin under the various streamflow conditions within the ensemble set. In addition to ensemble streamflows, an ensemble of seasonal volume forecasts is also provided for the various water conditions in order to set numerous constraints on the system. After meeting all the various requirements of the system, a probabilistic energy inventory is calculated and used for marketing purposes.

  10. Assessment of SWE data assimilation for ensemble streamflow predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franz, Kristie J.; Hogue, Terri S.; Barik, Muhammad; He, Minxue

    2014-11-01

    An assessment of data assimilation (DA) for Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) using seasonal water supply hindcasting in the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) and the National Weather Service (NWS) hydrologic forecast models is undertaken. Two parameter sets, one from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (RFC) and one from the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm, are tested. For each parameter set, hindcasts are generated using initial conditions derived with and without the inclusion of a DA scheme that integrates snow water equivalent (SWE) observations. The DREAM-DA scenario uses an Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation (ICEA) framework that also considers model and parameter uncertainty. Hindcasts are evaluated using deterministic and probabilistic forecast verification metrics. In general, the impact of DA on the skill of the seasonal water supply predictions is mixed. For deterministic (ensemble mean) predictions, the Percent Bias (PBias) is improved with integration of the DA. DREAM-DA and the RFC-DA have the lowest biases and the RFC-DA has the lowest Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). However, the RFC and DREAM-DA have similar RMSE scores. For the probabilistic predictions, the RFC and DREAM have the highest Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Scores (CRPSS) and the RFC has the best discrimination for low flows. Reliability results are similar between the non-DA and DA tests and the DREAM and DREAM-DA have better reliability than the RFC and RFC-DA for forecast dates February 1 and later. Despite producing improved streamflow simulations in previous studies, the hindcast analysis suggests that the DA method tested may not result in obvious improvements in streamflow forecasts. We advocate that integration of hindcasting and probabilistic metrics provides more rigorous insight on model performance for forecasting applications, such as in this study.

  11. Streamflow forecasting using functional regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masselot, Pierre; Dabo-Niang, Sophie; Chebana, Fateh; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.

    2016-07-01

    Streamflow, as a natural phenomenon, is continuous in time and so are the meteorological variables which influence its variability. In practice, it can be of interest to forecast the whole flow curve instead of points (daily or hourly). To this end, this paper introduces the functional linear models and adapts it to hydrological forecasting. More precisely, functional linear models are regression models based on curves instead of single values. They allow to consider the whole process instead of a limited number of time points or features. We apply these models to analyse the flow volume and the whole streamflow curve during a given period by using precipitations curves. The functional model is shown to lead to encouraging results. The potential of functional linear models to detect special features that would have been hard to see otherwise is pointed out. The functional model is also compared to the artificial neural network approach and the advantages and disadvantages of both models are discussed. Finally, future research directions involving the functional model in hydrology are presented.

  12. Advancing monthly streamflow prediction accuracy of CART models using ensemble learning paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdal, Halil Ibrahim; Karakurt, Onur

    2013-01-01

    SummaryStreamflow forecasting is one of the most important steps in the water resources planning and management. Ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting and stacking have gained popularity in hydrological forecasting in the recent years. The study investigates the potential usage of two ensemble learning paradigms (i.e., bagging; stochastic gradient boosting) in building classification and regression trees (CARTs) ensembles to advance the streamflow prediction accuracy. The study, initially, investigates the use of classification and regression trees for monthly streamflow forecasting and employs a support vector regression (SVR) model as the benchmark model. The analytic results indicate that CART outperforms SVR in both training and testing phases. Although the obtained results of CART model in training phase are considerable, it is not in testing phase. Thus, to optimize the prediction accuracy of CART for monthly streamflow forecasting, we incorporate bagging and stochastic gradient boosting which are rooted in same philosophy, advancing the prediction accuracy of weak learners. Comparing with the results of bagged regression trees (BRTs) and stochastic gradient boosted regression trees (GBRTs) models possess satisfactory monthly streamflow forecasting performance than CART and SVR models. Overall, it is found that ensemble learning paradigms can remarkably advance the prediction accuracy of CART models in monthly streamflow forecasting.

  13. Advancing Ensemble Streamflow Prediction with Stochastic Meteorological Forcings for Hydrologic Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caraway, N.; Wood, A. W.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E. A.; Daugherty, L.

    2012-12-01

    River Forecast Centers of National Weather Service (NWS) produce seasonal streamflow forecasts via a method called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). NWS ESP forces the temperature index Snow17 and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model (SAC-SMA) models with historical weather sequences for the forecasting period, starting from models' current watershed initial conditions, to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. There are two major drawbacks of this method: (i) the ensembles are limited to the length of historical, limiting ensemble variability and (ii) incorporating seasonal climate forecasts (e.g., El Nino Southern Oscillation) relies on adjustment or weighting of ESP streamflow sequences. These drawbacks motivate the research presented here, which has two components: (i) a multi-site stochastic weather generator and (ii) generation of ensemble weather forecast inputs to the NWS model to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. We enhanced the K-nearest neighbor bootstrap based stochastic generator include: (i) clustering the forecast locations into climatologically homogeneous regions to better capture the spatial heterogeneity and, (ii) conditioning the weather forecasts on a probabilistic seasonal climate forecast. This multi-site stochastic weather generator runs in R and the NWS models run within the new Community Hydrologic Prediction System, a forecasting sequence we label WG-ESP. The WG-ESP framework was applied to generate ensemble forecasts of spring season (April-July) streamflow in the San Juan River Basin, one of the major tributaries of the Colorado River, for the period 1981-2010. The hydrologic model requires daily weather sequences at 66 locations in the basin. The enhanced daily weather generator sequences captured the distributional properties and spatial dependence of the climatological ESP, and also generated weather sequences consistent with conditioning on seasonal climate forecasts. Spring season ensemble forecast lead times from

  14. Effect of Streamflow Forecast Uncertainty on Real-Time Reservoir Operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, T.; Cai, X.; Yang, D.

    2010-12-01

    Various hydrological forecast products have been applied to real-time reservoir operation, including deterministic streamflow forecast (DSF), DSF-based probabilistic streamflow forecast (DPSF), and ensemble streamflow forecast (ESF), which represent forecast uncertainty in the form of deterministic forecast error, deterministic forecast error-based uncertainty distribution, and ensemble forecast errors, respectively. Compared to previous studies that treat these forecast products as ad hoc inputs for reservoir operation models, this paper attempts to model the uncertainties involved in the various forecast products and explores their effect on real-time reservoir operation decisions. In hydrology, there are various indices reflecting the magnitude of streamflow forecast uncertainty; meanwhile, few models illustrate the forecast uncertainty evolution process. This research introduces Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution (MMFE) from supply chain management and justifies its assumptions for quantifying the evolution of uncertainty in streamflow forecast as time progresses. Based on MMFE, this research simulates the evolution of forecast uncertainty in DSF, DPSF, and ESF, and applies the reservoir operation models (dynamic programming, DP; stochastic dynamic programming, SDP; and standard operation policy, SOP) to assess the effect of different forms of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation. Through a hypothetical single-objective real-time reservoir operation model, the results illustrate that forecast uncertainty exerts significant effects. Reservoir operation efficiency, as measured by a utility function, decreases as the forecast uncertainty increases. Meanwhile, these effects also depend on the type of forecast product being used. In general, the utility of reservoir operation with ESF is nearly as high as the utility obtained with a perfect forecast; the utilities of DSF and DPSF are similar to each other but not as efficient as ESF. Moreover

  15. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Seasonal forecasts have an important socio-economic value in hydro-meteorological forecasting. The applications are for example hydropower management, spring flood prediction and water resources management. The latter includes prediction of low flows, primordial for navigation, water quality assessment, droughts and agricultural water needs. Traditionally, seasonal hydrological forecasts are done using the observed discharge from previous years, so called Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). With the recent increasing development of seasonal meteorological forecasts, the incentive for developing and improving seasonal hydrological forecasts is great. In this study, a seasonal hydrological forecast, driven by the ECMWF's System 4 (SEA), was compared with an ESP of modelled discharge using observations. The hydrological model used for both forecasts was the LISFLOOD model, run over a European domain with a spatial resolution of 5 km. The forecasts were produced from 1990 until the present time, with a daily time step. They were issued once a month with a lead time of seven months. The SEA forecasts are constituted of 15 ensemble members, extended to 51 members every three months. The ESP forecasts comprise 20 ensembles and served as a benchmark for this comparative study. The forecast systems were compared using a diverse set of verification metrics, such as continuous ranked probability scores, ROC curves, anomaly correlation coefficients and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients. These metrics were computed over several time-scales, ranging from a weekly to a six-months basis, for each season. The evaluation enabled the investigation of several aspects of seasonal forecasting, such as limits of predictability, timing of high and low flows, as well as exceedance of percentiles. The analysis aimed at exploring the spatial distribution and timely evolution of the limits of predictability.

  16. An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Hogue, T. S.; Margulis, S. A.; Franz, K. J.

    2012-03-01

    The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA) and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE) data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF) to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS) snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC) of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions), the stand-alone ISURF and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile). The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic) forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean) streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.

  17. An integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation approach for improved operational streamflow predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Hogue, T. S.; Margulis, S. A.; Franz, K. J.

    2011-08-01

    The current study proposes an integrated uncertainty and ensemble-based data assimilation framework (ICEA) and evaluates its viability in providing operational streamflow predictions via assimilating snow water equivalent (SWE) data. This step-wise framework applies a parameter uncertainty analysis algorithm (ISURF) to identify the uncertainty structure of sensitive model parameters, which is subsequently formulated into an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) to generate updated snow states for streamflow prediction. The framework is coupled to the US National Weather Service (NWS) snow and rainfall-runoff models. Its applicability is demonstrated for an operational basin of a western River Forecast Center (RFC) of the NWS. Performance of the framework is evaluated against existing operational baseline (RFC predictions), the stand-alone ISURF, and the stand-alone EnKF. Results indicate that the ensemble-mean prediction of ICEA considerably outperforms predictions from the other three scenarios investigated, particularly in the context of predicting high flows (top 5th percentile). The ICEA streamflow ensemble predictions capture the variability of the observed streamflow well, however the ensemble is not wide enough to consistently contain the range of streamflow observations in the study basin. Our findings indicate that the ICEA has the potential to supplement the current operational (deterministic) forecasting method in terms of providing improved single-valued (e.g., ensemble mean) streamflow predictions as well as meaningful ensemble predictions.

  18. Conditional Weather Resampling Method for Seasonal Ensemble Streamflow Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, Joost; Weerts, Albrecht; Welles, Edwin

    2014-05-01

    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) is a commonly used method for water resources planning on the seasonal time scale. The starting point for the ESP is the current state of the hydrological system, which is generated form a short historical simulation up to the time of forecast. Starting from this initial state, a hydrologic model is run to produce an ensemble of possible realizations of future streamflows, taking meteorological time series from historical years as input. It is assumed that these historical weather time series represent climatology. One disadvantage of the original ESP method is that an expected deviation from average climatology is not accounted for. Here, we propose a variation to the ESP, in which shorter periods from historical time years are resampled and assembled to generate additional possible realizations of future weather. The resampling is done in such a way as to incorporate statistical deviations from the average climate that are linked to climate modes, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). These climate modes are known to affect the local weather in many regions around the world. The resampling of historical weather periods is conditioned on the climate mode indices, starting with the current climate index value and searching for historical years with similar climate indices. The resampled weather time series are used as input for the hydrological model, similar to the original ESP procedure. The method was implemented in the operational forecasting environment of Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), which based on Delft-FEWS. The method was run for 55 non-operational years of hindcasts (forecasts in retrospect) for the Columbia River in the North-West of the U.S. An increase in forecast skill up to 5% was found relative to the standard ESP for streamflow predictions at three test-locations.

  19. Seasonal hydrological ensemble forecasts over Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnal, Louise; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Stephens, Elisabeth; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    This study investigates the limits of predictability in dynamical seasonal discharge forecasting, in both space and time, over Europe. Seasonal forecasts have an important socioeconomic value. Applications are numerous and cover hydropower management, spring flood prediction, low flow prediction for navigation and agricultural water demands. Additionally, the constant increase in NWP skill for longer lead times and the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes, have amplified the incentive to promote and further improve hydrological forecasts on sub-seasonal to seasonal timescales. In this study, seasonal hydrological forecasts (SEA), driven by the ECMWF's System 4 in hindcast mode, were analysed against an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) benchmark. The ESP was forced with an ensemble of resampled historical meteorological observations and started with perfect initial conditions. Both forecasts were produced by the LISFLOOD model, run on the pan-European scale with a spatial resolution of 5 by 5 km. The forecasts were issued monthly on a daily time step, from 1990 until the current time, up to a lead time of 7 months. The seasonal discharge forecasts were analysed against the ESP on a catchment scale in terms of their accuracy, skill and sharpness, using a diverse set of verification metrics (e.g. KGE, CRPSS and ROC). Additionally, a reverse-ESP was constructed by forcing the LISFLOOD model with a single perfect meteorological set of observations and initiated from an ensemble of resampled historical initial conditions. The comparison of the ESP with the reverse-ESP approach enabled the identification of the respective contribution of meteorological forcings and hydrologic initial conditions errors to seasonal discharge forecasting uncertainties in Europe. These results could help pinpoint target elements of the forecasting chain which, after being improved, could lead to substantial increase in discharge predictability

  20. Multivariate streamflow forecasting using independent component analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Westra, Seth; Sharma, Ashish; Brown, Casey; Lall, Upmanu

    2008-02-01

    Seasonal forecasting of streamflow provides many benefits to society, by improving our ability to plan and adapt to changing water supplies. A common approach to developing these forecasts is to use statistical methods that link a set of predictors representing climate state as it relates to historical streamflow, and then using this model to project streamflow one or more seasons in advance based on current or a projected climate state. We present an approach for forecasting multivariate time series using independent component analysis (ICA) to transform the multivariate data to a set of univariate time series that are mutually independent, thereby allowing for the much broader class of univariate models to provide seasonal forecasts for each transformed series. Uncertainty is incorporated by bootstrapping the error component of each univariate model so that the probability distribution of the errors is maintained. Although all analyses are performed on univariate time series, the spatial dependence of the streamflow is captured by applying the inverse ICA transform to the predicted univariate series. We demonstrate the technique on a multivariate streamflow data set in Colombia, South America, by comparing the results to a range of other commonly used forecasting methods. The results show that the ICA-based technique is significantly better at representing spatial dependence, while not resulting in any loss of ability in capturing temporal dependence. As such, the ICA-based technique would be expected to yield considerable advantages when used in a probabilistic setting to manage large reservoir systems with multiple inflows or data collection points.

  1. Perturbation of convection-permitting NWP forecasts for flash-flood ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vincendon, B.; Ducrocq, V.; Nuissier, O.; Vié, B.

    2011-05-01

    Mediterranean intense weather events often lead to devastating flash-floods. Extending the forecasting lead times further than the watershed response times, implies the use of numerical weather prediction (NWP) to drive hydrological models. However, the nature of the precipitating events and the temporal and spatial scales of the watershed response make them difficult to forecast, even using a high-resolution convection-permitting NWP deterministic forecasting. This study proposes a new method to sample the uncertainties of high-resolution NWP precipitation forecasts in order to quantify the predictability of the streamflow forecasts. We have developed a perturbation method based on convection-permitting NWP-model error statistics. It produces short-term precipitation ensemble forecasts from single-value meteorological forecasts. These rainfall ensemble forecasts are then fed into a hydrological model dedicated to flash-flood forecasting to produce ensemble streamflow forecasts. The verification on two flash-flood events shows that this forecasting ensemble performs better than the deterministic forecast. The performance of the precipitation perturbation method has also been found to be broadly as good as that obtained using a state-of-the-art research convection-permitting NWP ensemble, while requiring less computing time.

  2. A System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) to lead times of 9 days

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Shrestha, Durga Lal; Wang, Q. J.; Enever, David; Hapuarachchi, Prasantha; Tuteja, Narendra K.

    2014-11-01

    This study describes a System for Continuous Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting (SCHEF) designed to forecast streamflows to lead times of 9 days. SCHEF is intended to support optimal management of water resources for consumptive and environmental purposes and ultimately to support the management of impending floods. Deterministic rainfall forecasts from the ACCESS-G numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are post-processed using a Bayesian joint probability model to correct biases and quantify uncertainty. Realistic temporal and spatial characteristics are instilled in the rainfall forecast ensemble with the Schaake shuffle. The ensemble rainfall forecasts are then used as inputs to the GR4H hydrological model to produce streamflow forecasts. A hydrological error correction is applied to ensure forecasts transit smoothly from recent streamflow observations. SCHEF forecasts streamflows skilfully for a range of hydrological and climate conditions. Skill is particularly evident in forecasts of streamflows at lead times of 1-6 days. Forecasts perform best in temperate perennially flowing rivers, while forecasts are poorest in intermittently flowing rivers. The poor streamflow forecasts in intermittent rivers are primarily the result of poor rainfall forecasts, rather than an inadequate representation of hydrological processes. Forecast uncertainty becomes more reliably quantified at longer lead times; however there is considerable scope for improving the reliability of streamflow forecasts at all lead times. Additionally, we show that the choice of forecast time-step can influence forecast accuracy: forecasts generated at a 1-h time-step tend to be more accurate than at longer time-steps (e.g. 1-day). This is largely because at shorter time-steps the hydrological error correction is able to correct streamflow forecasts with more recent information, rather than the ability of GR4H to simulate hydrological processes better at shorter time-steps. SCHEF will form the

  3. Role of climate forecasts and initial conditions in developing streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall-runoff regime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinha, T.; Sankarasubramanian, A.

    2013-02-01

    Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on a monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall-runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC) play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of updated monthly precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow and soil moisture for a rainfall-runoff mechanism dominated basin - Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a) updated monthly precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b) daily climatological ensembles. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR) model. The mean square error (MSE) in predicting monthly streamflows, using the VIC model, are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscilation) conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensembles and PCR models over 2-6 month lead time during winter and spring seasons in capturing streamflow variability and reduced mean square errors. However, at 1-month lead time, streamflow utilizing the

  4. CME Ensemble Forecasting - A Primer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; de Koning, C. A.; Cash, M. D.; Millward, G. H.; Biesecker, D. A.; Codrescu, M.; Puga, L.; Odstrcil, D.

    2014-12-01

    SWPC has been evaluating various approaches for ensemble forecasting of Earth-directed CMEs. We have developed the software infrastructure needed to support broad-ranging CME ensemble modeling, including composing, interpreting, and making intelligent use of ensemble simulations. The first step is to determine whether the physics of the interplanetary propagation of CMEs is better described as chaotic (like terrestrial weather) or deterministic (as in tsunami propagation). This is important, since different ensemble strategies are to be pursued under the two scenarios. We present the findings of a comprehensive study of CME ensembles in uniform and structured backgrounds that reveals systematic relationships between input cone parameters and ambient flow states and resulting transit times and velocity/density amplitudes at Earth. These results clearly indicate that the propagation of single CMEs to 1 AU is a deterministic process. Thus, the accuracy with which one can forecast the gross properties (such as arrival time) of CMEs at 1 AU is determined primarily by the accuracy of the inputs. This is no tautology - it means specifically that efforts to improve forecast accuracy should focus upon obtaining better inputs, as opposed to developing better propagation models. In a companion paper (deKoning et al., this conference), we compare in situ solar wind data with forecast events in the SWPC operational archive to show how the qualitative and quantitative findings presented here are entirely consistent with the observations and may lead to improved forecasts of arrival time at Earth.

  5. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-01-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a probabilistic statistical model to forecast streamflow 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  6. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  7. Bias correcting precipitation forecasts for extended-range skilful seasonal streamflow predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful, which has the potential to also benefit streamflow forecasting. Seasonal streamflow forecasts can help to take anticipatory measures for a range of applications, such as water supply or hydropower reservoir operation and drought risk management. This study assesses the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France in order to provide insights into the way bias correcting seasonal precipitation forecasts can contribute to maintain skill of seasonal flow predictions at extended lead times. First, we evaluate the skill of raw (i.e., without bias correction) seasonal precipitation ensemble forecasts for streamflow forecasting in sixteen French catchments. A lumped daily hydrological model is applied at the catchment scale to transform precipitation into streamflow. A reference prediction system based on historic observed precipitation and watershed initial conditions at the time of forecast (i.e., ESP method) is used as benchmark. In a second step, we apply eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the flow forecasts. The approaches were based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. The skill of the ensemble forecasts is assessed in reliability, sharpness, accuracy, and overall performance. The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are often more skilful than the conventional ESP method in terms of sharpness. However, reliability is an attribute that is not significantly improved. Forecast skill is generally improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods showed the best performance for the studied catchments, with, however, each method being more successful in improving specific attributes of forecast quality: the simple linear scaling of monthly values contributed mainly to increase forecast

  8. ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beckers, Joost V. L.; Weerts, Albrecht H.; Tijdeman, Erik; Welles, Edwin

    2016-08-01

    Oceanic-atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is proposed to incorporate climate mode information into the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method for seasonal forecasting. The ESP is conditioned on an ENSO index in two steps. First, a number of original historical ESP traces are selected based on similarity between the index value in the historical year and the index value at the time of forecast. In the second step, additional ensemble traces are generated by a stochastic ENSO-conditioned weather resampler. These resampled traces compensate for the reduction of ensemble size in the first step and prevent degradation of skill at forecasting stations that are less affected by ENSO. The skill of the ENSO-conditioned ESP is evaluated over 50 years of seasonal hindcasts of streamflows at three test stations in the Columbia River basin in the US Pacific Northwest. An improvement in forecast skill of 5 to 10 % is found for two test stations. The streamflows at the third station are less affected by ENSO and no change in forecast skill is found here.

  9. Quantifying predictive uncertainty of streamflow forecasts based on a Bayesian joint probability model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Tongtiegang; Wang, Q. J.; Bennett, James C.; Robertson, David E.; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Jianshi

    2015-09-01

    Uncertainty is inherent in streamflow forecasts and is an important determinant of the utility of forecasts for water resources management. However, predictions by deterministic models provide only single values without uncertainty attached. This study presents a method for using a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) model to post-process deterministic streamflow forecasts by quantifying predictive uncertainty. The BJP model is comprised of a log-sinh transformation that normalises hydrological data, and a bi-variate Gaussian distribution that characterises the dependence relationship. The parameters of the transformation and the distribution are estimated through Bayesian inference with a Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) algorithm. The BJP model produces, from a raw deterministic forecast, an ensemble of values to represent forecast uncertainty. The model is applied to raw deterministic forecasts of inflows to the Three Gorges Reservoir in China as a case study. The heteroscedasticity and non-Gaussianity of forecast uncertainty are effectively addressed. The ensemble spread accounts for the forecast uncertainty and leads to considerable improvement in terms of the continuous ranked probability score. The forecasts become less accurate as lead time increases, and the ensemble spread provides reliable information on the forecast uncertainty. We conclude that the BJP model is a useful tool to quantify predictive uncertainty in post-processing deterministic streamflow forecasts.

  10. Assessing the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in sixteen French catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful. Streamflow forecasting is one of the many applications than can benefit from these efforts. Seasonal flow forecasts generated using seasonal ensemble precipitation forecasts as input to a hydrological model can help to take anticipatory measures for water supply reservoir operation or drought risk management. The objective of the study is to assess the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France. First, we evaluated the skill of ECMWF SYS4 seasonal precipitation forecasts for streamflow forecasting in sixteen French catchments. Daily flow forecasts were produced using raw seasonal precipitation forecasts as input to the GR6J hydrological model. Ensemble forecasts are issued every month with 15 or 51 members according to the month of the year and evaluated for up to 90 days ahead. In a second step, we applied eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the flow forecasts. The approaches were based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. The skill of the ensemble forecasts was assessed in accuracy (MAE), reliability (PIT Diagram) and overall performance (CRPS). The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are more skilful in terms of accuracy and overall performance than a reference prediction based on historic observed precipitation and watershed initial conditions at the time of forecast. Reliability is the only attribute that is not significantly improved. The skill of the forecasts is, in general, improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods showed the best performance for the studied catchments: the simple linear scaling of monthly values and the empirical distribution mapping of daily values. L. Crochemore is funded by the Interreg IVB DROP Project (Benefit of governance in DROught adaPtation).

  11. Short-term Ensemble Flood Forecasting Experiments in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collischonn, Walter; Meller, Adalberto; Fan, Fernando; Moreira, Demerval; Dias, Pedro; Buarque, Diogo; Bravo, Juan

    2013-04-01

    Flood Forecasting and issuing early warnings to communities under risk can help reduce the impacts of those events. However, to be effective, warnings should be given several hours in advance. The best solution to extend the lead time is possibly the use of rainfall-runoff models with input given by rainfall and streamflow observations and by forecasts of future precipitation derived from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Recent studies showed that probabilistic or ensemble flood forecasts produced using ensemble precipitation forecasts as input data outperform deterministic flood forecasts in several cases in Europe and the United States, and ensemble flood forecasting systems are increasingly becoming operational in these regions. In Brazil, on the other hand, operational flood warning systems are rare, and often based on simplified river routing or linear transfer function models. However, a large number of global and regional meteorological models is operationally run covering most of the country, and forecasts of those models are available for recent years. We used this available data to conduct experiments of short term ensemble flood forecasting in the Paraopeba River basin (12 thousand km2), located in Southeastern Brazil. Streamflow forecasts were produced using the MGB-IPH hydrological model, using a simple empirical state updating method and using an ensemble of precipitation forecasts generated by several models, with different initial conditions and parameterizations, from several weather forecasting centers. A single deterministic streamflow forecast, based on a quantitative precipitation forecast derived from the optimal combination of several outputs of NWP models was used as a reference to assess the performance of the ensemble streamflow forecasts. Flood forecasts experiments were performed for three rainy seasons (austral summer) between 2008-2011. The results for predictions of dichotomous events, which mean exceeding or not flood

  12. Defining critical thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting and warning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weeink, Werner H. A.; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Booij, Martijn J.; Andréassian, Vazken; Krol, Maarten S.

    2010-05-01

    The use of weather ensemble predictions in ensemble flood forecasting is an acknowledged procedure to include the uncertainty of meteorological forecasts in a probabilistic streamflow prediction system. Operational flood forecasters can thus get an overview of the probability of exceeding a critical discharge or water level, and decide on whether a flood warning should be issued or not. This process offers several challenges to forecasters: 1) how to define critical thresholds along all the rivers under survey? 2) How to link locally defined thresholds to simulated discharges, which result from models with specific spatial and temporal resolutions? 3) How to define the number of ensemble forecasts predicting the exceedance of critical thresholds necessary to launch a warning? This study focuses on this third challenge. We investigate the optimal number of ensemble members exceeding a critical discharge in order to issue a flood warning. The optimal probabilistic threshold is the one that minimizes the number of false alarms and misses, while it optimizes the number of flood events correctly forecasted. Furthermore, in our study, an optimal probabilistic threshold also maximizes flood preparedness: the gain in lead-time compared to a deterministic forecast. Data used to evaluate critical thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting come from a selection of 208 catchments in France, which covers a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions (including catchment size) encountered in the country. The GRP hydrological forecasting model, a lumped soil-moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model, is used. The model is driven by the 10-day ECMWF deterministic and ensemble (51 members) precipitation forecasts for a period of 18 months. A trade-off between the number of hits, misses, false alarms and the gain in lead time is sought to find the optimal number of ensemble members exceeding the critical discharge. These optimal probability thresholds are further explored in

  13. Monthly streamflow forecasting using Gaussian Process Regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Alexander Y.; Wang, Dingbao; Xu, Xianli

    2014-04-01

    Streamflow forecasting plays a critical role in nearly all aspects of water resources planning and management. In this work, Gaussian Process Regression (GPR), an effective kernel-based machine learning algorithm, is applied to probabilistic streamflow forecasting. GPR is built on Gaussian process, which is a stochastic process that generalizes multivariate Gaussian distribution to infinite-dimensional space such that distributions over function values can be defined. The GPR algorithm provides a tractable and flexible hierarchical Bayesian framework for inferring the posterior distribution of streamflows. The prediction skill of the algorithm is tested for one-month-ahead prediction using the MOPEX database, which includes long-term hydrometeorological time series collected from 438 basins across the U.S. from 1948 to 2003. Comparisons with linear regression and artificial neural network models indicate that GPR outperforms both regression methods in most cases. The GPR prediction of MOPEX basins is further examined using the Budyko framework, which helps to reveal the close relationships among water-energy partitions, hydrologic similarity, and predictability. Flow regime modification and the resulting loss of predictability have been a major concern in recent years because of climate change and anthropogenic activities. The persistence of streamflow predictability is thus examined by extending the original MOPEX data records to 2012. Results indicate relatively strong persistence of streamflow predictability in the extended period, although the low-predictability basins tend to show more variations. Because many low-predictability basins are located in regions experiencing fast growth of human activities, the significance of sustainable development and water resources management can be even greater for those regions.

  14. Forecasting daily streamflow using online sequential extreme learning machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lima, Aranildo R.; Cannon, Alex J.; Hsieh, William W.

    2016-06-01

    While nonlinear machine methods have been widely used in environmental forecasting, in situations where new data arrive continually, the need to make frequent model updates can become cumbersome and computationally costly. To alleviate this problem, an online sequential learning algorithm for single hidden layer feedforward neural networks - the online sequential extreme learning machine (OSELM) - is automatically updated inexpensively as new data arrive (and the new data can then be discarded). OSELM was applied to forecast daily streamflow at two small watersheds in British Columbia, Canada, at lead times of 1-3 days. Predictors used were weather forecast data generated by the NOAA Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS), and local hydro-meteorological observations. OSELM forecasts were tested with daily, monthly or yearly model updates. More frequent updating gave smaller forecast errors, including errors for data above the 90th percentile. Larger datasets used in the initial training of OSELM helped to find better parameters (number of hidden nodes) for the model, yielding better predictions. With the online sequential multiple linear regression (OSMLR) as benchmark, we concluded that OSELM is an attractive approach as it easily outperformed OSMLR in forecast accuracy.

  15. Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in a Rainfall-Runoff Dominated Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinha, T.; Arumugam, S.

    2012-12-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts contingent on climate forecasts can be effectively utilized in updating water management plans and optimize generation of hydroelectric power. Streamflow in the rainfall-runoff dominated basins critically depend on forecasted precipitation in contrast to snow dominated basins, where initial hydrological conditions (IHCs) are more important. Since precipitation forecasts from Atmosphere-Ocean-General Circulation Models are available at coarse scale (~2.8° by 2.8°), spatial and temporal downscaling of such forecasts are required to implement land surface models, which typically runs on finer spatial and temporal scales. Consequently, multiple sources are introduced at various stages in predicting seasonal streamflow. Therefore, in this study, we addresses the following science questions: 1) How do we attribute the errors in monthly streamflow forecasts to various sources - (i) model errors, (ii) spatio-temporal downscaling, (iii) imprecise initial conditions, iv) no forecasts, and (iv) imprecise forecasts? and 2) How does monthly streamflow forecast errors propagate with different lead time over various seasons? In this study, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is calibrated over Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL in the southeastern US and implemented with observed 1/8° daily forcings to estimate reference streamflow during 1981 to 2010. The VIC model is then forced with different schemes under updated IHCs prior to forecasting period to estimate relative mean square errors due to: a) temporally disaggregation, b) spatial downscaling, c) Reverse Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (imprecise IHCs), d) ESP (no forecasts), and e) ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts. Finally, error propagation under different schemes are analyzed with different lead time over different seasons.

  16. Real-time hydrologic probability forecasting using ensemble dressing, with application to river Rhine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkade, Jan; Brown, James; Reggiani, Paolo; Weerts, Albrecht

    2013-04-01

    Hydrologic forecasts are affected by inherent uncertainties. These originate from multiple sources including atmospheric forcing, hydrologic model schematisation and its parameters, and observations used in the forecasting process. Hydrologic streamflow forecasts are often produced using ensemble forcing predictions without additional hydrologic post-processing. As a result, the streamflow ensembles can be underdispersive or overconfident because the estimated predictive distribution does not take into account hydrologic uncertainties. Under the assumption that the meteorological ensemble forecasts is unbiased, "ensemble dressing" constitutes a promising method for estimating combined forcing and hydrologic uncertainties. Hydrologic uncertainties are estimated from the joint distribution of streamflow simulations and observations, whereby simulations are produced using observed meteorological forcings. Each of the predicted streamflow ensemble members is then dressed using these estimates of hydrologic uncertainties. From the dressed ensembles, the combined predictive uncertainty distribution, i.e. the probability forecast is determined. The present paper describes a study for river Rhine where ensemble dressing is applied at multiple forecasting locations. Hydrologic uncertainties are characterised using the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor. Streamflow ensembles are produced by routing the 5 member ECMWF reforecast ensembles of precipitation and temperature through a conceptual HBV rainfall-runoff model. The ensemble members are used to create conditional estimates of hydrologic uncertainty. The posterior predictive distribution is produced by averaging probability distributions of each of the dressed ensemble members. From a record of approx. 2,900 hindcasts, a number of verification metrics is determined. These include correlation coefficient, relative mean error, the Brier skill score, the continuous ranked probability skill score, and the relative operating

  17. A Global Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System: Uncertainty Quantification and Data Assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, Y.; Zhang, Y.; Xue, X.; Wang, X.; Gourley, J. J.; Kirstetter, P.

    2012-12-01

    A Global Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System (GHEFS) driven by TRMM Multi-satellite Prediction Analysis (TMPA) precipitation ensembles and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) ensembles, via the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model, provides deterministic and probabilistic (e.g. 95% confidence boundaries) simulations of streamflow. The TMPA inputs enable flood monitoring and short-term forecasts while the GEFS ensembles provide for forecasts up to a seven-day lead time. This talk will focus on a quantification of the system's uncertainty and streamflow ensemble prediction generation using the following three techniques: 1) an error model that first quantifies and then perturbs both temporal and spatial variability of the real-time, TMPA precipitation estimates by considering the version-7 research product as the reference rainfall product; 2) in forecast mode, utilization of the Ensemble Transform method to account for the uncertainty of GEFS forecasts from its initial condition errors; 3) a sequential data assimilation approach - the Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter (EnSRF) applied to update the CREST model's internal states whenever observations (e.g. streamflow, soil moisture, and actual ET etc.) are available. The GHEFS is validated in several basins in the U.S. and other continents in terms of flood detection capability (e.g. CSI, NSCE, Peak, Timing), showing improved prognostic capability by offering more time for responding agencies and yielding unique uncertainty information about the magnitude of the forecast impacts.

  18. Assessing the skill of seasonal forecasting of streamflow and drought in the Limpopo basin, Southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, M.; Trambauer, P.; Winsemius, H.; Maskey, S.; Dutra, E. N.; Pappenberger, F.

    2014-12-01

    The semi-arid Limpopo Basin in Southern Africa experiences frequent droughts, leading to shortfall of water resources available to irrigation, drinking water supply and environmental flow requirements. In this paper we explore three approaches to seasonal forecasting streamflow and derived drought indices in the basin. The first applies the ECMWF seasonal forecast system (S4), an operational global atmospheric model that provides seasonal ensemble forecast with a lead time of six months. We apply a 30 year hindcast set available for S4 in forcing a 0.05O distributed hydrological model for the basin. The second approach uses the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method. This develops a forecast ensemble of six months lead time based on resampling historic meteorological data over the basin, and we again use this ensemble to force the hydrological model. The third approach again applies the ESP method, but we now use the ENSO index to condition the sampling probabilities. We focus on comparing forecast skill over the wet season which is the most relevant to water users in the basin. Comparison of the skill of the three forecasting approaches in forecasting drought indices and streamflow shows that S4 is moderately skilful at the lead times up to 3-5 months. The ESP forecasts are skilful when compared to climatology, but only for the short lead times, and the skill decays rapidly with lead time. Forecasts based on the conditional ESP ensemble have improved skill when compared to ESP, though S4 forecasts remain superior. Through exploring drought indices that are used by reservoir operators in determining curtailments to water users we show how the forecasts can be meaningful to reservoir operators and irrigators in the basin.

  19. Forecast of iceberg ensemble drift

    SciTech Connect

    El-Tahan, M.S.; El-Tahan, H.W.; Venkatesh, S.

    1983-05-01

    The objectives of the study are to gain a better understanding of the characteristics of iceberg motion and the factors controlling iceberg drift, and to develop an iceberg ensemble drift forecast system to be operated by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service. An extensive review of field and theoretical studies on iceberg behaviour, and the factors controlling iceberg motion has been carried out. Long term and short term behaviour of icebergs are critically examined. A quantitative assessment of the effects of the factors controlling iceberg motion is presented. The study indicated that wind and currents are the primary driving forces. Coriolis Force and ocean surface slope also have significant effects. As for waves, only the higher waves have a significant effect. Iceberg drift is also affected by iceberg size characteristics. Based on the findings of the study a comprehensive computerized forecast system to predict the drift of iceberg ensembles off Canada's east coast has been designed. The expected accuracy of the forecast system is discussed and recommendations are made for future improvements to the system.

  20. One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

    2015-04-01

    Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN

  1. One-day-ahead streamflow forecasting via super-ensembles of several neural network architectures based on the Multi-Level Diversity Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brochero, Darwin; Hajji, Islem; Pina, Jasson; Plana, Queralt; Sylvain, Jean-Daniel; Vergeynst, Jenna; Anctil, Francois

    2015-04-01

    Theories about generalization error with ensembles are mainly based on the diversity concept, which promotes resorting to many members of different properties to support mutually agreeable decisions. Kuncheva (2004) proposed the Multi Level Diversity Model (MLDM) to promote diversity in model ensembles, combining different data subsets, input subsets, models, parameters, and including a combiner level in order to optimize the final ensemble. This work tests the hypothesis about the minimisation of the generalization error with ensembles of Neural Network (NN) structures. We used the MLDM to evaluate two different scenarios: (i) ensembles from a same NN architecture, and (ii) a super-ensemble built by a combination of sub-ensembles of many NN architectures. The time series used correspond to the 12 basins of the MOdel Parameter Estimation eXperiment (MOPEX) project that were used by Duan et al. (2006) and Vos (2013) as benchmark. Six architectures are evaluated: FeedForward NN (FFNN) trained with the Levenberg Marquardt algorithm (Hagan et al., 1996), FFNN trained with SCE (Duan et al., 1993), Recurrent NN trained with a complex method (Weins et al., 2008), Dynamic NARX NN (Leontaritis and Billings, 1985), Echo State Network (ESN), and leak integrator neuron (L-ESN) (Lukosevicius and Jaeger, 2009). Each architecture performs separately an Input Variable Selection (IVS) according to a forward stepwise selection (Anctil et al., 2009) using mean square error as objective function. Post-processing by Predictor Stepwise Selection (PSS) of the super-ensemble has been done following the method proposed by Brochero et al. (2011). IVS results showed that the lagged stream flow, lagged precipitation, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993) were the most relevant variables. They were respectively selected as one of the firsts three selected variables in 66, 45, and 28 of the 72 scenarios. A relationship between aridity index (Arora, 2002) and NN

  2. Post-processing ECMWF precipitation and temperature ensemble reforecasts for operational hydrologic forecasting at various spatial scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Reggiani, P.; Weerts, A. H.

    2013-09-01

    The ECMWF temperature and precipitation ensemble reforecasts are evaluated for biases in the mean, spread and forecast probabilities, and how these biases propagate to streamflow ensemble forecasts. The forcing ensembles are subsequently post-processed to reduce bias and increase skill, and to investigate whether this leads to improved streamflow ensemble forecasts. Multiple post-processing techniques are used: quantile-to-quantile transform, linear regression with an assumption of bivariate normality and logistic regression. Both the raw and post-processed ensembles are run through a hydrologic model of the river Rhine to create streamflow ensembles. The results are compared using multiple verification metrics and skill scores: relative mean error, Brier skill score and its decompositions, mean continuous ranked probability skill score and its decomposition, and the ROC score. Verification of the streamflow ensembles is performed at multiple spatial scales: relatively small headwater basins, large tributaries and the Rhine outlet at Lobith. The streamflow ensembles are verified against simulated streamflow, in order to isolate the effects of biases in the forcing ensembles and any improvements therein. The results indicate that the forcing ensembles contain significant biases, and that these cascade to the streamflow ensembles. Some of the bias in the forcing ensembles is unconditional in nature; this was resolved by a simple quantile-to-quantile transform. Improvements in conditional bias and skill of the forcing ensembles vary with forecast lead time, amount, and spatial scale, but are generally moderate. The translation to streamflow forecast skill is further muted, and several explanations are considered, including limitations in the modelling of the space-time covariability of the forcing ensembles and the presence of storages.

  3. Multi-Model Long-Range Ensemble Forecast for Decision Support in Hydroelectric Operations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kunkel, M. L.; Parkinson, S.; Blestrud, D.; Holbrook, V. P.

    2014-12-01

    Idaho Power Company (IPC) is a hydroelectric based utility serving over a million customers in southern Idaho and eastern Oregon. Hydropower makes up ~50% of our power generation and accurate predictions of streamflow and precipitation drive our long-term planning and decision support for operations. We investigate the use of a multi-model ensemble approach for mid and long-range streamflow and precipitation forecasts throughout the Snake River Basin. Forecast are prepared using an Idaho Power developed ensemble forecasting technique for 89 locations throughout the Snake River Basin for periods of 3 to 18 months in advance. A series of multivariable linear regression, multivariable non-linear regression and multivariable Kalman filter techniques are combined in an ensemble forecast based upon two data types, historical data (streamflow, precipitation, climate indices [i.e. PDO, ENSO, AO, etc…]) and single value decomposition derived values based upon atmospheric heights and sea surface temperatures.

  4. A Multi-Site Streamflow Forecast Framework: Application to the Upper Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bracken, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Prairie, J.

    2007-12-01

    The multi-site streamflow forecast framework is a simple and parsimonious method for incorporating large-scale climate information into basin scale streamflow forecasts. The method is parsimonious because predictors need only be developed at one index gage, which is the sum of the seasonal flows at many spatial locations. In an application to the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts were made of the seasonal (April-July) flows at the index gage. A K nearest-neighbor (KNN) nonparametric disaggregation technique is implemented which provides seasonal forecasts at four spatial locations and in turn monthly forecasts for the peak flow season (April-July). The predictions made in a retroactive forecast mode were comparable to the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) predictions which are made using the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) model. The earliest forecast of the ESP model is January 1 because of its heavy reliance on snowpack information. The multi-site framework provides skillful predictions as early as November 1 by its inclusion of large scale climate information such as geopotential height, zonal winds, meridional winds and sea surface temperature. It is possible that the ESP model and the multi-site framework could be combined in a Bayesian context that could incorporate professional judgment.

  5. Towards integrated error estimation and lag-aware data assimilation for operational streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Y.; Ryu, D.; Western, A. W.; Wang, Q.; Robertson, D.; Crow, W. T.

    2013-12-01

    Timely and reliable streamflow forecasting with acceptable accuracy is fundamental for flood response and risk management. However, streamflow forecasting models are subject to uncertainties from inputs, state variables, model parameters and structures. This has led to an ongoing development of methods for uncertainty quantification (e.g. generalized likelihood and Bayesian approaches) and methods for uncertainty reduction (e.g. sequential and variational data assimilation approaches). These two classes of methods are distinct yet related, e.g., the validity of data assimilation is essentially determined by the reliability of error specification. Error specification has been one of the most challenging areas in hydrologic data assimilation and there is a major opportunity for implementing uncertainty quantification approaches to inform both model and observation uncertainties. In this study, ensemble data assimilation methods are combined with the maximum a posteriori (MAP) error estimation approach to construct an integrated error estimation and data assimilation scheme for operational streamflow forecasting. We contrast the performance of two different data assimilation schemes: a lag-aware ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) and the conventional ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The schemes are implemented for a catchment upstream of Myrtleford in the Ovens river basin, Australia to assimilate real-time discharge observations into a conceptual catchment model, modèle du Génie Rural à 4 paramètres Horaire (GR4H). The performance of the integrated system is evaluated in both a synthetic forecasting scenario with observed precipitation and an operational forecasting scenario with Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecast rainfall. The results show that the error parameters estimated by the MAP approach generates a reliable spread of streamflow prediction. Continuous state updating reduces uncertainty in initial states and thereby improves the forecasting accuracy

  6. Model averaging methods to merge operational statistical and dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasts in Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.

    2015-03-01

    The Australian Bureau of Meteorology produces statistical and dynamic seasonal streamflow forecasts. The statistical and dynamic forecasts are similarly reliable in ensemble spread; however, skill varies by catchment and season. Therefore, it may be possible to optimize forecasting skill by weighting and merging statistical and dynamic forecasts. Two model averaging methods are evaluated for merging forecasts for 12 locations. The first method, Bayesian model averaging (BMA), applies averaging to forecast probability densities (and thus cumulative probabilities) for a given forecast variable value. The second method, quantile model averaging (QMA), applies averaging to forecast variable values (quantiles) for a given cumulative probability (quantile fraction). BMA and QMA are found to perform similarly in terms of overall skill scores and reliability in ensemble spread. Both methods improve forecast skill across catchments and seasons. However, when both the statistical and dynamical forecasting approaches are skillful but produce, on special occasions, very different event forecasts, the BMA merged forecasts for these events can have unusually wide and bimodal distributions. In contrast, the distributions of the QMA merged forecasts for these events are narrower, unimodal and generally more smoothly shaped, and are potentially more easily communicated to and interpreted by the forecast users. Such special occasions are found to be rare. However, every forecast counts in an operational service, and therefore the occasional contrast in merged forecasts between the two methods may be more significant than the indifference shown by the overall skill and reliability performance.

  7. Seasonal streamflow forecasting with the global hydrological forecasting system FEWS-World

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.; Winsemius, H.; Bierkens, M. F.

    2011-12-01

    The year-to-year variability of river discharge brings about risks and opportunities in water resources management. Reliable hydrological forecasts and effective communication allow several sectors to make more informed management decisions. In many developing regions of the world, there are no efficient hydrological forecasting systems. For these regions, a global forecasting system which indicates increased probabilities of streamflow excesses or shortages over long lead-times can be of great value. FEWS-World is developed for this purpose. The system incorporates the global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB and delivers streamflow forecasts on a global scale. This study investigates the skill and value of FEWS-World. Skill is defined as the ability of the system to forecast discharge extremes; and value is its usefulness for possible users and ultimately for affected populations. Skill is assessed in historical simulation mode as well as retroactive forecasting mode. The eventual goal is to transfer FEWS-World to operational forecasting mode, where the system will use operational seasonal forecasts from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The results will be disseminated on the internet to provide valuable information for users in data and model-poor regions of the world. The preliminary skill assessment of PCR-GLOBWB in reproducing flow extremes is carried out for a selection of 20 large rivers of the world. The model is run for a historical period, with a meteorological forcing data set based on observations from the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, and the ERA-40 reanalysis of ECMWF. Model skill in reproducing monthly anomalies as well as floods and droughts is assessed by applying verification measures developed for deterministic meteorological forecasts. The results of this preliminary analysis shows that even where the simulated hydrographs are biased, higher skills can be attained in reproducing monthly

  8. Using climate model ensemble forecasts for seasonal hydrologic prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Andrew Whitaker

    Seasonal hydrologic forecasting has long played an invaluable role in the development and use of water resources. Despite notable advances in the science and practice of climate prediction, current approaches of hydrologists and water managers largely fail to incorporate seasonal climate forecast information that has become operationally available during the last decade. This study is motivated by the view that a combination of hydrologic and climate prediction methods affords a new opportunity to improve hydrologic forecast skill. A relatively direct statistical approach for achieving this combination (i.e., downscaling) was formulated that used ensemble climate model forecasts with a six month lead time produced by the NCEP/CPC Global Spectral Model (GSM) as input to the macroscale Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model to produce ensemble runoff and streamflow forecasts. The approach involved the bias correction of climate model precipitation and temperature fields, and spatial and temporal disaggregation from monthly climate model scale (about 2 degrees latitude by longitude) fields to daily hydrology model scale (1/8 degrees) inputs. A qualitative evaluation of the approach in the eastern U.S. suggested that it was successful in translating climate forecast signals to local hydrologic variables and streamflow, but that the dominant influence on forecast results tended to be persistence in initial hydrologic conditions. The suitability of the statistical downscaling approach for supporting hydrologic simulation was then assessed (using a continuous retrospective 20-year climate simulation from the DOE Parallel Climate Model) relative to dynamical downscaling via a regional, meso-scale climate model. The statistical approach generally outperformed the dynamical approach, in that the dynamical approach alone required additional bias-correction to reproduce the retrospective hydrology as well as the statistical approach. Finally, using 21 years of

  9. Seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar

    2014-05-01

    Streamflow forecasts are essential for making critical decision for optimal allocation of water supplies for various demands that include irrigation for agriculture, habitat for fisheries, hydropower production and flood warning. The major objective of this study is to explore the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) based forecast in New Zealand catchments and to highlights the present capability of seasonal flow forecasting of National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). In this study a probabilistic forecast framework for ESP is presented. The basic assumption in ESP is that future weather pattern were experienced historically. Hence, past forcing data can be used with current initial condition to generate an ensemble of prediction. Small differences in initial conditions can result in large difference in the forecast. The initial state of catchment can be obtained by continuously running the model till current time and use this initial state with past forcing data to generate ensemble of flow for future. The approach taken here is to run TopNet hydrological models with a range of past forcing data (precipitation, temperature etc.) with current initial conditions. The collection of runs is called the ensemble. ESP give probabilistic forecasts for flow. From ensemble members the probability distributions can be derived. The probability distributions capture part of the intrinsic uncertainty in weather or climate. An ensemble stream flow prediction which provide probabilistic hydrological forecast with lead time up to 3 months is presented for Rangitata, Ahuriri, and Hooker and Jollie rivers in South Island of New Zealand. ESP based seasonal forecast have better skill than climatology. This system can provide better over all information for holistic water resource management.

  10. Role of climate forecasts and initial land-surface conditions in developing operational streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall-runoff regime: skill assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sinha, T.; Sankarasubramanian, A.

    2012-04-01

    Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall-runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC) play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of monthly updated precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow for a rainfall-runoff mechanism dominated basin - Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a) monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b) daily climatological ensemble. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR) model. Mean square error (MSE) in predicting monthly streamflow using the above VIC model are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts, at 1-2 month lead time, obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensemble over all the seasons except forecasts issued in fall and the PCR models perform better during the fall months. Over longer lead times (3-6 months), VIC forecasts derived using ECHAM4.5 forcings alone performed better compared to the

  11. Use of medium-range numerical weather prediction model output to produce forecasts of streamflow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Clark, M.P.; Hay, L.E.

    2004-01-01

    he accuracy of precipitation forecasts over the northeastern United States, but overall, the accuracy of MOS-based precipitation forecasts is slightly lower than the raw NCEP forecasts. Four basins in the United States were chosen as case studies to evaluate the value of MRF output for predictions of streamflow. Streamflow forecasts using MRF output were generated for one rainfall-dominated basin (Alapaha River at Statenville, Georgia) and three snowmelt-dominated basins (Animas River at Durango, Colorado: East Fork of the Carson River near Gardnerville, Nevada: and Cle Elum River near Roslyn, Washington). Hydrologic model output forced with measured-station data were used as "truth" to focus attention on the hydrologic effects of errors in the MRF forecasts. Eight-day streamflow forecasts produced using the MOS-corrected MRF output as input (MOS) were compared with those produced using the climatic Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) technique. MOS-based streamflow forecasts showed increased skill in the snowmelt-dominated river basins, where daily variations in streamflow are strongly forced by temperature. In contrast, the skill of MOS forecasts in the rainfall-dominated basin (the Alapaha River) were equivalent to the skill of the ESP forecasts. Further improvements in streamflow forecasts require more accurate local-scale forecasts of precipitation and temperature, more accurate specification of basin initial conditions, and more accurate model simulations of streamflow. ?? 2004 American Meteorological Society.

  12. Layered Ensemble Architecture for Time Series Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Rahman, Md Mustafizur; Islam, Md Monirul; Murase, Kazuyuki; Yao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Time series forecasting (TSF) has been widely used in many application areas such as science, engineering, and finance. The phenomena generating time series are usually unknown and information available for forecasting is only limited to the past values of the series. It is, therefore, necessary to use an appropriate number of past values, termed lag, for forecasting. This paper proposes a layered ensemble architecture (LEA) for TSF problems. Our LEA consists of two layers, each of which uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron (MLP) networks. While the first ensemble layer tries to find an appropriate lag, the second ensemble layer employs the obtained lag for forecasting. Unlike most previous work on TSF, the proposed architecture considers both accuracy and diversity of the individual networks in constructing an ensemble. LEA trains different networks in the ensemble by using different training sets with an aim of maintaining diversity among the networks. However, it uses the appropriate lag and combines the best trained networks to construct the ensemble. This indicates LEAs emphasis on accuracy of the networks. The proposed architecture has been tested extensively on time series data of neural network (NN)3 and NN5 competitions. It has also been tested on several standard benchmark time series data. In terms of forecasting accuracy, our experimental results have revealed clearly that LEA is better than other ensemble and nonensemble methods. PMID:25751882

  13. An evaluation of the Canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Petit, T.; Lavoie, A.; Boucher, M.-A.; Turcotte, R.; Fortin, V.; Anctil, F.

    2009-11-01

    Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap. In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada) are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  14. An evaluation of the canadian global meteorological ensemble prediction system for short-term hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velázquez, J. A.; Petit, T.; Lavoie, A.; Boucher, M.-A.; Turcotte, R.; Fortin, V.; Anctil, F.

    2009-07-01

    Hydrological forecasting consists in the assessment of future streamflow. Current deterministic forecasts do not give any information concerning the uncertainty, which might be limiting in a decision-making process. Ensemble forecasts are expected to fill this gap. In July 2007, the Meteorological Service of Canada has improved its ensemble prediction system, which has been operational since 1998. It uses the GEM model to generate a 20-member ensemble on a 100 km grid, at mid-latitudes. This improved system is used for the first time for hydrological ensemble predictions. Five watersheds in Quebec (Canada) are studied: Chaudière, Châteauguay, Du Nord, Kénogami and Du Lièvre. An interesting 17-day rainfall event has been selected in October 2007. Forecasts are produced in a 3 h time step for a 3-day forecast horizon. The deterministic forecast is also available and it is compared with the ensemble ones. In order to correct the bias of the ensemble, an updating procedure has been applied to the output data. Results showed that ensemble forecasts are more skilful than the deterministic ones, as measured by the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS), especially for 72 h forecasts. However, the hydrological ensemble forecasts are under dispersed: a situation that improves with the increasing length of the prediction horizons. We conjecture that this is due in part to the fact that uncertainty in the initial conditions of the hydrological model is not taken into account.

  15. Ensemble Exigent Forecasting of Critical Weather Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, R. N.; Gombos, D.

    2011-12-01

    To improve the forecasting of and society's preparedness for "worst-case" weather damage scenarios, we have developed ensemble exigent analysis. Exigent analysis determines worst cast scenarios and associated probability quantiles from the joint spatial properties of multivariate damaging weather events. Using the ensemble-estimated forecast covariance, we (1) identify the forecast exigent analysis perturbation (ExAP) and (2) find the contemporaneous and antecedent meteorological conditions that are most likely to coexist with or to evolve into the ExAP at the forecast time. Here we focus on the first objective, the ExAP identification problem. The ExAP is the perturbation wrt to the ensemble mean at the forecast time that maximizes the damage in the subspace of the ensemble with respect to a user-defined damage metric (i.e. maximizes the sum of the damage perturbation over the domain of interest) and to a user-specified ensemble probability quantile (EPQ) defined in terms of the Mahalanobis distance of the perturbation to the ensemble mean. Making use of a universal relationship (for Gaussian ensembles) between the quantile of the damage functional and the EPQ, we explain the ExAP using topological arguments. Then, we formally define the ExAP by making use of the ensemble-estimated covariance of the damage ensemble in a Lagrangian minimization technique according to an exigent analysis theorem. Two case studies with varying complexities and expected accuracies are used to illustrate ensemble exigent analysis. The first case study employs the gridded forecast number of heating degree days (HDD) to analyze forecast heating demand over a large portion of the United Sates for a cold event on 9 January 2010. The second case uses ensemble forecasts of 2-meter temperature and estimates of the spatial distribution of citrus trees to define the damage functional as the percentage of Florida citrus trees damaged by the 11 January 2010 Florida freeze event. The ExAP of this

  16. A Simple Bayesian Climate Index Weighting Method for Seasonal Ensemble Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bradley, A.; Habib, M. A.; Schwartz, S. S.

    2014-12-01

    Climate information — in the form of a measure of climate state or a climate forecast — can be an important predictor of future hydrologic conditions. For instance, streamflow variability for many locations around the globe is related to large-scale atmospheric oscillations, like the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or the Pacific/Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Furthermore, climate forecast models are growing more skillful in their predictions of future climate variables on seasonal time scales. Finding effective ways to translate this climate information into improved hydrometeorological predictions is an area of ongoing research. In ensemble streamflow forecasting, where historical weather inputs or streamflow observations are used to generate the ensemble, climate index weighting is one way to represent the influence of current climate information. Using a climate index, each forecast variable member of the ensemble is selectively weighted to reflect climate conditions at the time of the forecast. A simple Bayesian climate index weighting of ensemble forecasts is presented. The original hydrologic ensemble members define a sample of the prior distribution; the relationship between the climate index and the ensemble member forecast variable is used to estimate a likelihood function. Given an observation of the climate index at the time of the forecast, the estimated likelihood function is then used to assign weights to each ensemble member. The weighted ensemble forecast is then used to estimate the posterior distribution of the forecast variable conditioned on the climate index. The proposed approach has several advantages over traditional climate index weighting methods. The weights assigned to the ensemble members accomplish the updating of the (prior) ensemble forecast distribution based on Bayes' Theorem, so the method is theoretically sound. The method also automatically adapts to the strength of the relationship between the climate index and the

  17. Multimodel hydrological ensemble forecasts for the Baskatong catchment in Canada using the TIGGE database.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tito Arandia Martinez, Fabian

    2014-05-01

    Adequate uncertainty assessment is an important issue in hydrological modelling. An important issue for hydropower producers is to obtain ensemble forecasts which truly grasp the uncertainty linked to upcoming streamflows. If properly assessed, this uncertainty can lead to optimal reservoir management and energy production (ex. [1]). The meteorological inputs to the hydrological model accounts for an important part of the total uncertainty in streamflow forecasting. Since the creation of the THORPEX initiative and the TIGGE database, access to meteorological ensemble forecasts from nine agencies throughout the world have been made available. This allows for hydrological ensemble forecasts based on multiple meteorological ensemble forecasts. Consequently, both the uncertainty linked to the architecture of the meteorological model and the uncertainty linked to the initial condition of the atmosphere can be accounted for. The main objective of this work is to show that a weighted combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts based on different atmospheric models can lead to improved hydrological ensemble forecasts, for horizons from one to ten days. This experiment is performed for the Baskatong watershed, a head subcatchment of the Gatineau watershed in the province of Quebec, in Canada. Baskatong watershed is of great importance for hydro-power production, as it comprises the main reservoir for the Gatineau watershed, on which there are six hydropower plants managed by Hydro-Québec. Since the 70's, they have been using pseudo ensemble forecast based on deterministic meteorological forecasts to which variability derived from past forecasting errors is added. We use a combination of meteorological ensemble forecasts from different models (precipitation and temperature) as the main inputs for hydrological model HSAMI ([2]). The meteorological ensembles from eight of the nine agencies available through TIGGE are weighted according to their individual performance and

  18. Forecasting of Annual Streamflow Using Data-Driven Modeling Approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Miller, W. P.; Ahmad, S.; Lamb, K. W.

    2010-12-01

    In a water-stressed region, such as the western United States, it is essential to have long lead-time streamflow forecast for reservoir operation and water resources management. In this study, we develop and examine the accuracy of a data driven model incorporating large-scale climate information for extending streamflow forecast lead-time. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 1-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of “Hondo” region for a period of 1906-2006 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes for multiple sites in Gunnison River Basin (GRB) and San Juan River Basin (SJRB) located in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error the model shows satisfactory results, and the predictions are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Contrary to this, the current research shows a stronger signal between the “Hondo” region SST and GRB and SJRB streamflow for 1-year lead-time. Streamflow predictions from the SVM model are found to be better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed-forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network model and Multiple Linear Regression model. The streamflow forecast provide valuable and useful information for optimal management and planning of water resources in the basins.

  19. Ensemble flood forecasting on the Tocantins River - Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fan, Fernando; Collischonn, Walter; Jiménez, Karena; Sorribas, Mino; Buarque, Diogo; Siqueira, Vinicius

    2014-05-01

    The Tocantins River basin is located in the northern region of Brazil and has about 300.000 km2 of drainage area upstream of its confluence with river Araguaia, its major tributary. The Tocantins River is intensely used for hydropower production, with seven major dams, including Tucuruí, world's fourth largest in terms of installed capacity. In this context, the use of hydrological streamflow forecasts at this basin is very useful to support the decision making process for reservoir operation, and can produce benefits by reducing damages from floods, increasing dam safety and upgrading efficiency in power generation. The occurrence of floods along the Tocantins River is a relatively frequent event, where one recent example is the year of 2012, when a large flood occurred in the Tocantins River with discharge peaks exceeding 16.000m³/s, and causing damages to cities located along the river. After this flooding event, a hydrological forecasting system was developed and is operationally in use since mid-2012 in order to assist the decision making of dam operation along the river basin. The forecasting system is based on the MGB-IPH model, a large scale distributed hydrological model, and initially used only telemetric data as observed information and deterministic rainfall forecasts from the Brazilian Meteorological Forecasting Centre (CPTEC) with 7-days lead time as input. Since August-2013 the system has been updated and now works with two new features: (i) a technique for merging satellite TRMM real-time precipitation estimative with gauged information is applied to reduce the uncertainty due to the lack of observed information over a portion of the basin, since the total number of rain gages available is scarce compared to the total basin area; (ii) rainfall ensemble forecasts with 16-days lead time provided by the Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFs), from the 2nd Generation of NOAA Global Ensemble Reforecast Data Set, maintained by the National Center for

  20. Evaluating a coupled discrete wavelet transform and support vector regression for daily and monthly streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhiyong; Zhou, Ping; Chen, Gang; Guo, Ledong

    2014-11-01

    This study investigated the performance and potential of a hybrid model that combined the discrete wavelet transform and support vector regression (the DWT-SVR model) for daily and monthly streamflow forecasting. Three key factors of the wavelet decomposition phase (mother wavelet, decomposition level, and edge effect) were proposed to consider for improving the accuracy of the DWT-SVR model. The performance of DWT-SVR models with different combinations of these three factors was compared with the regular SVR model. The effectiveness of these models was evaluated using the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE). Daily and monthly streamflow data observed at two stations in Indiana, United States, were used to test the forecasting skill of these models. The results demonstrated that the different hybrid models did not always outperform the SVR model for 1-day and 1-month lead time streamflow forecasting. This suggests that it is crucial to consider and compare the three key factors when using the DWT-SVR model (or other machine learning methods coupled with the wavelet transform), rather than choosing them based on personal preferences. We then combined forecasts from multiple candidate DWT-SVR models using a model averaging technique based upon Akaike's information criterion (AIC). This ensemble prediction was superior to the single best DWT-SVR model and regular SVR model for both 1-day and 1-month ahead predictions. With respect to longer lead times (i.e., 2- and 3-day and 2-month), the ensemble predictions using the AIC averaging technique were consistently better than the best DWT-SVR model and SVR model. Therefore, integrating model averaging techniques with the hybrid DWT-SVR model would be a promising approach for daily and monthly streamflow forecasting. Additionally, we strongly recommend considering these three key factors when using wavelet-based SVR models (or other wavelet-based forecasting models).

  1. Evaluating Snow Data Assimilation Framework for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Using Hindcast Verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2012-12-01

    Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation is a key factor in producing reliable streamflow simulations and forecasts in snow dominated areas. However, measuring or predicting SWE has significant uncertainty. Sequential data assimilation, which updates states using both observed and modeled data based on error estimation, has been shown to reduce streamflow simulation errors but has had limited testing for forecasting applications. In the current study, a snow data assimilation framework integrated with the National Weather System River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) is evaluated for use in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). Seasonal water supply ESP hindcasts are generated for the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) in northern California. Parameter sets from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm and the Multistep Automated Calibration Scheme (MACS) are tested both with and without sequential data assimilation. The traditional ESP method considers uncertainty in future climate conditions using historical temperature and precipitation time series to generate future streamflow scenarios conditioned on the current basin state. We include data uncertainty analysis in the forecasting framework through the DREAM-based parameter set which is part of a recently developed Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation framework (ICEA). Extensive verification of all tested approaches is undertaken using traditional forecast verification measures, including root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), volumetric bias, joint distribution, rank probability score (RPS), and discrimination and reliability plots. In comparison to the RFC parameters, the DREAM and MACS sets show significant improvement in volumetric bias in flow. Use of assimilation improves hindcasts of higher flows but does not significantly improve performance in the mid flow and

  2. Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used as a method in meteorological modelling to indicate the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, as the ensembles often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process them. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters which are different in space and time, but still can give a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, and cannot directly be regionalized in the way we would like, so we suggest a different path below. The target of our work is to create a mean forecast with uncertainty bounds for a large number of locations in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu) We are therefore more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than the forecast skill of lower runoff levels. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to find a total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but assuring that they have some spatial correlation, by adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process. This can in some cases have a slight negative

  3. Ensemble postprocessing for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bentzien, S.; Friederichs, P.

    2012-12-01

    Precipitation is one of the most difficult weather variables to predict in hydrometeorological applications. In order to assess the uncertainty inherent in deterministic numerical weather prediction (NWP), meteorological services around the globe develop ensemble prediction systems (EPS) based on high-resolution NWP systems. With non-hydrostatic model dynamics and without parameterization of deep moist convection, high-resolution NWP models are able to describe convective processes in more detail and provide more realistic mesoscale structures. However, precipitation forecasts are still affected by displacement errors, systematic biases and fast error growth on small scales. Probabilistic guidance can be achieved from an ensemble setup which accounts for model error and uncertainty of initial and boundary conditions. The German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst, DWD) provides such an ensemble system based on the German-focused limited-area model COSMO-DE. With a horizontal grid-spacing of 2.8 km, COSMO-DE is the convection-permitting high-resolution part of the operational model chain at DWD. The COSMO-DE-EPS consists of 20 realizations of COSMO-DE, driven by initial and boundary conditions derived from 4 global models and 5 perturbations of model physics. Ensemble systems like COSMO-DE-EPS are often limited with respect to ensemble size due to the immense computational costs. As a consequence, they can be biased and exhibit insufficient ensemble spread, and probabilistic forecasts may be not well calibrated. In this study, probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts are derived from COSMO-DE-EPS and evaluated at more than 1000 rain gauges located all over Germany. COSMO-DE-EPS is a frequently updated ensemble system, initialized 8 times a day. We use the time-lagged approach to inexpensively increase ensemble spread, which results in more reliable forecasts especially for extreme precipitation events. Moreover, we will show that statistical

  4. Global analysis of seasonal streamflow predictability using an ensemble prediction system and observations from 6192 small catchments worldwide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dijk, Albert I. J. M.; PeñA-Arancibia, Jorge L.; Wood, Eric F.; Sheffield, Justin; Beck, Hylke E.

    2013-05-01

    Ideally, a seasonal streamflow forecasting system would ingest skilful climate forecasts and propagate these through calibrated hydrological models initialized with observed catchment conditions. At global scale, practical problems exist in each of these aspects. For the first time, we analyzed theoretical and actual skill in bimonthly streamflow forecasts from a global ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) system. Forecasts were generated six times per year for 1979-2008 by an initialized hydrological model and an ensemble of 1° resolution daily climate estimates for the preceding 30 years. A post-ESP conditional sampling method was applied to 2.6% of forecasts, based on predictive relationships between precipitation and 1 of 21 climate indices prior to the forecast date. Theoretical skill was assessed against a reference run with historic forcing. Actual skill was assessed against streamflow records for 6192 small (<10,000 km2) catchments worldwide. The results show that initial catchment conditions provide the main source of skill. Post-ESP sampling enhanced skill in equatorial South America and Southeast Asia, particularly in terms of tercile probability skill, due to the persistence and influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Actual skill was on average 54% of theoretical skill but considerably more for selected regions and times of year. The realized fraction of the theoretical skill probably depended primarily on the quality of precipitation estimates. Forecast skill could be predicted as the product of theoretical skill and historic model performance. Increases in seasonal forecast skill are likely to require improvement in the observation of precipitation and initial hydrological conditions.

  5. Ensemble Streamflow Predictions in the Três Marias Basin, Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Kuwajima, Julio; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Collischonn, Walter

    2014-05-01

    Hydropower is the main electricity source of Brazil. The related hydropower reservoirs are multi-purpose thus besides efficient and reliable energy production, they are relevant for flood control. In this context, the present study shows results of an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) for supporting the operational decision making implemented at Três Marias hydroelectric power project located in the São Francisco River basin in Brazil. It is a large tropical river basin with approximately 55,000km² up to the Três Marias dam. The hydrological model used in the study is the MGB-IPH (Modelo de Grandes Bacias from Instituto de Pesquisas Hidráulicas), a large scale distributed hydrological model. Applied in an operational forecasting mode, it uses an empirical data assimilation method to take into account real time streamflow observations to update its state variables. We present results of a hindcast experiment with observed precipitation and streamflow data from the local energy utility, CEMIG (Companhia Energética de Minas Gerais), and from the Brazilian water agency, ANA (Agencia Nacional de Água),. Probabilistic Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) from CPTEC (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos), ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) and NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) are used to generate the ESP. The data products and the MGB-IPH model are integrated into an open shell forecasting platform based on the software package Delft-FEWS. Inside the forecasting platform a hindcast mode over a forecast lead time of 10-16 days in recent rainfall periods is applied in. The ESP results are compared to deterministic forecasts of the Três Marias reservoir inflow. The results assessment verifies the added value of the ESP in general in comparison to the use of deterministic forecasts by means of different performance indicators. The ESP derived from the ECMWP ensemble shows the best performance. A future

  6. Evaluation of ensemble streamflow predictions of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alfieri, Lorenzo; Pappenberger, Florian; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Haiden, Thomas; Richardson, David; Salamon, Peter; Thielen, Jutta

    2014-05-01

    In operational hydrological forecasting systems, improvements are directly related to the continuous monitoring of the forecast performance. An efficient evaluation framework must be able to spot issues and limitations and provide feedback to the system developers. In regional systems, the expertise of analysts on duty is a major component of the daily evaluation. On the other hand, large scale systems need to be complemented with semi-automated tools to evaluate the quality of forecasts equitably in every part of their domain. This work presents the current status of the monitoring and evaluation framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Twice per day, EFAS performs hydrological simulation of ensemble weather predictions over Europe and detects river sections where forecast streamflow is likely to exceed flood warning thresholds in the coming days. In each 5x5 km2 grid point of the European river network, 10-day ensemble streamflow predictions driven by ECMWF weather forecasts are evaluated against a reference simulation which uses observed meteorological fields as input to a calibrated hydrological model. Performance scores are displayed spatially on maps and plotted against their forecast lead time, basin size, as well as in time, considering average scores for 12-month moving windows of forecasts. Results indicate skillful predictions in medium to large river basins over the 10-day range. An evaluation of 12-month average scores over the past 5 years suggests a moderate improvement for all 12-month forecasts ending from the beginning of 2013 onwards. Such improvement occurred notwithstanding an increasing negative forecast bias in mountain regions. On average, performance drops significantly in river basins with upstream area smaller than 300 km2, due to resolution issues and to the underestimation of the runoff in mountain areas. On the other hand, performance in rivers with large upstream area (i.e., 10,000 km2 and above) shows highly positive

  7. An Assessment of Melting Season Streamflow Forecasts using EPS for a Snow Dominated Basin in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ertaş, Cansaran; Şensoy, Aynur; Akkol, Bulut; Şorman, Arda; Uysal, Gökçen; Çoşkun, Cihan

    2016-04-01

    In many mountainous regions, snowmelt makes significant contribution to streamflow, particularly during spring and summer months. Therefore, runoff modeling and forecasting during spring and early summer is important in terms of energy and water resources management. In this study, the Upper Euphrates Basin (10,275 km2 area and elevation range of 1125-3500 m) located at the headwater of Euphrates River, one of Turkey's most important rivers, is selected as the application area. In this region, snowmelt runoff constitutes approximately 2/3 in volume of the total yearly runoff. The aim of the study is to make a forward-oriented, medium-range flow forecasting using Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) which is a pioneer study for Turkey. Conceptual hydrological model HBV, which has a common usage in the literature, is chosen to predict streamflows. According to preliminary results, Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiencies are 0.85 for calibration (2001-2008) and 0.71 for validation (2009-2014) respectively. After calibrating/validating the hydrologic model, EPS data including 51 different combinations produced by ECMWF is used as probability based weather forecasts. Melting period during March-June of 2009-2015 is chosen as the forecast period. The probabilistic skill of EPS based hydrological model results are analyzed to verify the ensemble forecasts.

  8. Comparative evaluation of maximum likelihood ensemble filter and ensemble Kalman filter for real-time assimilation of streamflow data into operational hydrologic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafieeinasab, Arezoo; Seo, Dong-Jun; Lee, Haksu; Kim, Sunghee

    2014-11-01

    Various data assimilation (DA) methods have been used and are being explored for use in operational streamflow forecasting. For ensemble forecasting, ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is an appealing candidate for familiarity and relative simplicity. EnKF, however, is optimal in the second-order sense, only if the observation equation is linear. As such, without an iterative approach, EnKF may not be appropriate for assimilating streamflow data for updating soil moisture states due to the strong nonlinear relationships between the two. Maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF), on the other hand, is not subject to the above limitation. Being an ensemble extension of variational assimilation (VAR), MLEF also offers a strong connection with the traditional single-valued forecast process through the control, or the maximum likelihood, solution. In this work, we apply MLEF and EnKF as a fixed lag smoother to the Sacramento (SAC) soil moisture accounting model and unit hydrograph (UH) for assimilation of streamflow, mean areal precipitation (MAP) and potential evaporation (MAPE) data for updating soil moisture states. For comparative evaluation, three experiments were carried out. Comparison between homoscedastic vs. heteroscedastic modeling of selected statistical parameters for DA indicates that heteroscedastic modeling does not improve over homoscedastic modeling, and that homoscedastic error modeling with sensitivity analysis may suffice for application of MLEF for soil moisture updating using streamflow data. Comparative evaluation with respect to the model errors associated with soil moisture dynamics, the ensemble size and the number of streamflow observations assimilated per cycle showed that, in general, MLEF outperformed EnKF under varying conditions of observation and model errors, and ensemble size, and that MLEF performed well with an ensemble size as small as 5 while EnKF required a much larger ensemble size to perform closely to MLEF. Also, MLEF was not very

  9. Ensemble forecasts of monthly catchment rainfall out to long lead times by post-processing coupled general circulation model output

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schepen, Andrew; Wang, Q. J.

    2014-11-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts with long lead time are being sought by water managers in Australia. In this study, we take a first step towards a monthly streamflow modelling approach by harnessing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) to produce monthly rainfall forecasts for three catchments across Australia. Bayesian methodologies are employed to produce forecasts based on CGCM raw rainfall forecasts and also CGCM sea surface temperature forecasts. The Schaake Shuffle is used to connect forecast ensemble members of individual months to form ensemble monthly time series forecasts. Monthly forecasts and three-monthly forecasts of rainfall are assessed for lead times of 0-6 months, based on leave-one-year-out cross-validation for 1980-2010. The approach is shown to produce well-calibrated ensemble forecasts that source skill from both the atmospheric and ocean modules of the CGCM. Although skill is generally low, moderate skill scores are observed in some catchments for lead times of up to 6 months. In months and catchments where there is limited skill, the forecasts revert to climatology. Thus the forecasts developed can be considered suitable for continuously forecasting time series of streamflow to long lead times, when coupled with a suitable monthly hydrological model.

  10. Pre- and post-processing of hydro-meteorological ensembles for the Norwegian flood forecasting system in 145 basins.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jahr Hegdahl, Trine; Steinsland, Ingelin; Merete Tallaksen, Lena; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Probabilistic flood forecasting has an added value for decision making. The Norwegian flood forecasting service is based on a flood forecasting model that run for 145 basins. Covering all of Norway the basins differ in both size and hydrological regime. Currently the flood forecasting is based on deterministic meteorological forecasts, and an auto-regressive procedure is used to achieve probabilistic forecasts. An alternative approach is to use meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts to quantify the uncertainty in forecasted streamflow. The hydrological ensembles are based on forcing a hydrological model with meteorological ensemble forecasts of precipitation and temperature. However, the ensembles of precipitation are often biased and the spread is too small, especially for the shortest lead times, i.e. they are not calibrated. These properties will, to some extent, propagate to hydrological ensembles, that most likely will be uncalibrated as well. Pre- and post-processing methods are commonly used to obtain calibrated meteorological and hydrological ensembles respectively. Quantitative studies showing the effect of the combined processing of the meteorological (pre-processing) and the hydrological (post-processing) ensembles are however few. The aim of this study is to evaluate the influence of pre- and post-processing on the skill of streamflow predictions, and we will especially investigate if the forecasting skill depends on lead-time, basin size and hydrological regime. This aim is achieved by applying the 51 medium-range ensemble forecast of precipitation and temperature provided by the European Center of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). These ensembles are used as input to the operational Norwegian flood forecasting model, both raw and pre-processed. Precipitation ensembles are calibrated using a zero-adjusted gamma distribution. Temperature ensembles are calibrated using a Gaussian distribution and altitude corrected by a constant gradient

  11. Improving Streamflow Forecasts Using Predefined Sea Surface Temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2011-12-01

    With the increasing evidence of climate variability, water resources managers in the western United States are faced with greater challenges of developing long range streamflow forecast. This is further aggravated by the increases in climate extremes such as floods and drought caused by climate variability. Over the years, climatologists have identified several modes of climatic variability and their relationship with streamflow. These climate modes have the potential of being used as predictor in models for improving the streamflow lead time. With this as the motivation, the current research focuses on increasing the streamflow lead time using predefine climate indices. A data driven model i.e. Support Vector Machine (SVM) based on the statistical learning theory is used to predict annual streamflow volume 3-year in advance. The SVM model is a learning system that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions in a Kernel induced higher dimensional feature space, and is trained with a learning algorithm from the optimization theory. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indices, comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), El Niño-Southern Oscillations (ENSO), and a new Sea Surface Temperature (SST) data set of "Hondo" Region for a period of 1906-2005 are used to generate annual streamflow volumes. The SVM model is applied to three gages i.e. Cisco, Green River, and Lees Ferry in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the western United States. Based on the performance measures the model shows very good forecasts, and the forecast are in good agreement with measured streamflow volumes. Previous research has identified NAO and ENSO as main drivers for extending streamflow forecast lead-time in the UCRB. Inclusion of "Hondo Region" SST information further improve the model's forecasting ability. The overall results of this study revealed that the annual streamflow of the UCRB is significantly influenced by

  12. Water balance models in one-month-ahead streamflow forecasting.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alley, W.M.

    1985-01-01

    Techniques are tested that incorporate information from water balance models in making 1-month-ahead streamflow forecasts in New Jersey. The results are compared to those based on simple autoregressive time series models. The relative performance of the models is dependent on the month of the year in question. -from Author

  13. Uncertainty in dispersion forecasts using meteorological ensembles

    SciTech Connect

    Chin, H N; Leach, M J

    1999-07-12

    The usefulness of dispersion forecasts depends on proper interpretation of results. Understanding the uncertainty in model predictions and the range of possible outcomes is critical for determining the optimal course of action in response to terrorist attacks. One of the objectives for the Modeling and Prediction initiative is creating tools for emergency planning for special events such as the upcoming the Olympics. Meteorological forecasts hours to days in advance are used to estimate the dispersion at the time of the event. However, there is uncertainty in any meteorological forecast, arising from both errors in the data (both initial conditions and boundary conditions) and from errors in the model. We use ensemble forecasts to estimate the uncertainty in the forecasts and the range of possible outcomes.

  14. A Streamflow Forecast Model for Central Arizona.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Young, Kenneth C.; Gall, Robert L.

    1992-05-01

    A spring-runoff forecast model for central Arizona was developed based on multiple discriminant analysis. More than 6500 potential predictor variables were analyzed, including local precipitation and temperature variables, as well as global sea level pressure variables. The forecast model was evaluated on nine years exclusive of the years on which the model was based. Forecasts are provided in the form of a cumulative distribution function (cdf) of the expected runoff, based on analogs. A ranked probability score to evaluate forecast skill for the cdf forecasts was developed. Ranked probability skill scores ranged from 25% to 45%.Local and global forecast models were developed and compared to the combined data source model. The global forecast model was equivalent in skill to the local forecast model. The combined model exhibited a marked improvement in skill over either the local or global models.Three recurrent patterns in the predictor variables used by the forecast model are analyzed in some depth. Above-normal pressure at Raoul Island northeast of New Zealand 14 to 18 months prior to the event forecast was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. A westward shift of the Bermuda high, as evidenced by the pressure change at Charleston, South Carolina, from December to August of the preceding year, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff. Above-normal pressure at Port Moresby, New Guinea coupled with below-normal pressure at San Diego, California, the month prior to the forecast, was found to be associated with above-normal runoff.

  15. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF : Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of meteorological and hydrological forecasts uncertainties and improve human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. An operational hydrological ensemble forecasting chain has been developed at EDF since 2008 and is being used since 2010 on more than 30 watersheds in France. This ensemble forecasting chain is characterized ensemble pre-processing (rainfall and temperature) and post-processing (streamflow), where a large human expertise is solicited. The aim of this paper is to compare 2 hydrological ensemble post-processing methods developed at EDF in order improve ensemble forecasts reliability (similar to Monatanari &Brath, 2004; Schaefli et al., 2007). The aim of the post-processing methods is to dress hydrological ensemble forecasts with hydrological model uncertainties, based on perfect forecasts. The first method (called empirical approach) is based on a statistical modelisation of empirical error of perfect forecasts, by streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and lead-time. The second method (called dynamical approach) is based on streamflow sub-samples of quantile class and streamflow variation, and lead-time. On a set of 20 watersheds used for operational forecasts, results show that both approaches are necessary to ensure a good post-processing of hydrological ensemble, allowing a good improvement of reliability, skill and sharpness of ensemble forecasts. The comparison of the empirical and dynamical approaches shows the limits of the empirical approach which is not able to take into account hydrological

  16. Prediction of regional streamflow frequency using model tree ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schnier, Spencer; Cai, Ximing

    2014-09-01

    This study introduces a novel data-driven method called model tree ensembles (MTEs) to predict streamflow frequency statistics based on known drainage area characteristics, which yields insights into the dominant controls of regional streamflow. The database used to induce the models contains both natural and anthropogenic drainage area characteristics for 294 USGS stream gages (164 in Texas and 130 in Illinois). MTEs were used to predict complete flow duration curves (FDCs) of ungaged streams by developing 17 models corresponding to 17 points along the FDC. Model accuracy was evaluated using ten-fold cross-validation and the coefficient of determination (R2). During the validation, the gages withheld from the analysis represent ungaged watersheds. MTEs are shown to outperform global multiple-linear regression models for predictions in ungaged watersheds. The accuracy of models for low flow is enhanced by explicit consideration of variables that capture human interference in watershed hydrology (e.g., population). Human factors (e.g., population and groundwater use) appear in the regionalizations for low flows, while annual and seasonal precipitation and drainage area are important for regionalizations of all flows. The results of this study have important implications for predictions in ungaged watersheds as well as gaged watersheds subject to anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes.

  17. Why large-scale seasonal streamflow forecasts are feasible

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bierkens, M. F.; Candogan Yossef, N.; Van Beek, L. P.

    2011-12-01

    Seasonal forecasts of precipitation and temperature, using either statistical or dynamic prediction, have been around for almost 2 decades. The skill of these forecasts differ both in space and time, with highest skill in areas heavily influenced by SST anomalies such as El Nino or areas where land surface properties have a major impact on e.g. Monsoon strength, such as the vegetation cover of the Sahel region or the snow cover of the Tibetan plateau. However, the skill of seasonal forecasts is limited in most regions, with anomaly correlation coefficients varying between 0.2 and 0.5 for 1-3 month precipitation totals. This raises the question whether seasonal hydrological forecasting is feasible. Here, we make the case that it is. Using the example of statistical forecasts of NAO-strength and related precipitation anomalies over Europe, we show that the skill of large-scale streamflow forecasts is generally much higher than the precipitation forecasts itself, provided that the initial state of the system is accurately estimated. In the latter case, even the precipitation climatology can produce skillful results. This is due to the inertia of the hydrological system rooted in the storage of soil moisture, groundwater and snow pack, as corroborated by a recent study using snow observations for seasonal streamflow forecasting in the Western US. These examples seem to suggest that for accurate seasonal hydrological forecasting, correct state estimation is more important than accurate seasonal meteorological forecasts. However, large-scale estimation of hydrological states is difficult and validation of large-scale hydrological models often reveals large biases in e.g. streamflow estimates. Fortunately, as shown with a validation study of the global model PCR-GLOBWB, these biases are of less importance when seasonal forecasts are evaluated in terms of their ability to reproduce anomalous flows and extreme events, i.e. by anomaly correlations or categorical quantile

  18. Effect of initial conditions of a catchment on seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Singh, Shailesh Kumar; Zammit, Christian; Hreinsson, Einar; Woods, Ross; Clark, Martyn; Hamlet, Alan

    2013-04-01

    Increased access to water is a key pillar of the New Zealand government plan for economic growths. Variable climatic conditions coupled with market drivers and increased demand on water resource result in critical decision made by water managers based on climate and streamflow forecast. Because many of these decisions have serious economic implications, accurate forecast of climate and streamflow are of paramount importance (eg irrigated agriculture and electricity generation). New Zealand currently does not have a centralized, comprehensive, and state-of-the-art system in place for providing operational seasonal to interannual streamflow forecasts to guide water resources management decisions. As a pilot effort, we implement and evaluate an experimental ensemble streamflow forecasting system for the Waitaki and Rangitata River basins on New Zealand's South Island using a hydrologic simulation model (TopNet) and the familiar ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) paradigm for estimating forecast uncertainty. To provide a comprehensive database for evaluation of the forecasting system, first a set of retrospective model states simulated by the hydrologic model on the first day of each month were archived from 1972-2009. Then, using the hydrologic simulation model, each of these historical model states was paired with the retrospective temperature and precipitation time series from each historical water year to create a database of retrospective hindcasts. Using the resulting database, the relative importance of initial state variables (such as soil moisture and snowpack) as fundamental drivers of uncertainties in forecasts were evaluated for different seasons and lead times. The analysis indicate that the sensitivity of flow forecast to initial condition uncertainty is depend on the hydrological regime and season of forecast. However initial conditions do not have a large impact on seasonal flow uncertainties for snow dominated catchments. Further analysis indicates

  19. Performance assessment of sequential data assimilation methods on streamflow forecasting using a distributed hydrologic model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noh, S. J.; Tachikawa, Y.; Shiiba, M.

    2012-04-01

    Flood disaster is the main cause of losses from natural hazards in the world and is responsible for a greater number of damaging events than any other type of natural disaster. Effective early-warning system is needed where floods regularly claim victims and rob people of their livelihoods. However, due to uncertainty of simulation model and observation, it is very hard to get accurate flood forecasting results for required lead time. Therefore, the applications of assimilation techniques have been increasing to estimate and reduce uncertainty in the predictions by updating state variables according to observation sequentially. In this study, performance of sequential data assimilation methods such as the ensemble Kalman filters (EnKF) and the particle filters (PF) is assessed for short-term streamflow forecasting with a distributed hydrologic model. For both the EnKF and the PF, sequential data assimilation is performed within a lag time window to take into account of lag and response times among internal hydrologic processes in a hydrologic model. Proposed methods are applied for several catchments in Japan and Korea to assess their performance. Model ensembles, perturbed by noises of states and parameters, are assimilated by streamflow observation. Improvement of forecasting accuracy is found in both the EnKF and the PF when sufficient lag times are provided. The EnKF is sensitive to lag times and shows limited forecasts in short lead times, while the PF shows more stable forecasts for overall lead times. Filtering in a lag time window also presents improved performance with a limited number of ensembles.

  20. Incorporating Multi-model Ensemble Techniques Into a Probabilistic Hydrologic Forecasting System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sonessa, M. Y.; Bohn, T. J.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2008-12-01

    Multi-model ensemble techniques have been shown to reduce bias and to aid in quantification of the effects of model uncertainty in hydrologic modeling. However, these techniques are only beginning to be applied in operational hydrologic forecast systems. To investigate the performance of a multi-model ensemble in the context of probabilistic hydrologic forecasting, we have extended the University of Washington's West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecasting System to use an ensemble of three models: the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model version 4.0.6, the NCEP NOAH model version 2.7.1, and the NWS grid-based Sacramento/Snow-17 model (SAC). The objective of this presentation is to assess the performance of the ensemble of the three models as compared to the performance of the models individually. Three forecast points within the West-wide forecast system domain were used for this research: the Feather River at Oroville, CA, the Salmon River at White horse, ID, and the Colorado River at Grand Junction. The forcing and observed streamflow data are for years 1951-2005 for the Feather and Salmon Rivers; and 1951-2003 for the Colorado. The models were first run for the retrospective period, then bias-corrected, and model weights were then determined using multiple linear regression. We assessed the performance of the ensemble in comparison with the individual models in terms of correlation with observed flows and Root Mean Square Error, and Nash-Sutcliffe. We found that for evaluations of retrospective simulations in comparison with observations, the ensemble performed better overall than any of the models individually even though in few individual months individual models performed slightly better than the ensemble. To test forecast skill, we performed Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) forecasts for each year of the retrospective period, using forcings from all other years, for individual models and for the multi-model ensemble. To form the ensemble for the ESP

  1. Probabilistic Flash Flood Forecasting using Stormscale Ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hardy, J.; Gourley, J. J.; Kain, J. S.; Clark, A.; Novak, D.; Hong, Y.

    2013-12-01

    Flash flooding is one of the most costly and deadly natural hazards in the US and across the globe. The loss of life and property from flash floods could be mitigated with better guidance from hydrological models, but these models have limitations. For example, they are commonly initialized using rainfall estimates derived from weather radars, but the time interval between observations of heavy rainfall and a flash flood can be on the order of minutes, particularly for small basins in urban settings. Increasing the lead time for these events is critical for protecting life and property. Therefore, this study advances the use of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from a stormscale NWP ensemble system into a distributed hydrological model setting to yield basin-specific, probabilistic flash flood forecasts (PFFFs). Rainfall error characteristics of the individual members are first diagnosed and quantified in terms of structure, amplitude, and location (SAL; Wernli et al., 2008). Amplitude and structure errors are readily correctable due to their diurnal nature, and the fine scales represented by the CAPS QPF members are consistent with radar-observed rainfall, mainly showing larger errors with afternoon convection. To account for the spatial uncertainty of the QPFs, we use an elliptic smoother, as in Marsh et al. (2012), to produce probabilistic QPFs (PQPFs). The elliptic smoother takes into consideration underdispersion, which is notoriously associated with stormscale ensembles, and thus, is good for targeting the approximate regions that may receive heavy rainfall. However, stormscale details contained in individual members are still needed to yield reasonable flash flood simulations. Therefore, on a case study basis, QPFs from individual members are then run through the hydrological model with their predicted structure and corrected amplitudes, but the locations of individual rainfall elements are perturbed within the PQPF elliptical regions using Monte

  2. National Weather Service (NWS) Implementation of the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hartman, R. K.; Fresch, M. A.; Wells, E.

    2015-12-01

    Operational hydrologic forecasters as well as the communities that they serve have long recognized the value of including uncertainty in hydrologic projections. While single value (deterministic) forecasts are easy to understand and link to specific mitigation actions, the potential for using modern risk management strategies is very limited. This is particularly evident at lead times beyond a few days when forecast skill may be low but the value (and costs) of mitigation actions may be quite high. Based on nearly ten years of research and development, the NWS's National Water Center (NWC, formerly the Office of Hydrologic Development) implemented and evaluated the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS, see Demargne et al. 2014 Brown et al., 2013, Brown et al., 2014a/b/c). The HEFS provides hydrologic forecasts that reflect the total uncertainty, including that contributed by the meteorological forcing and the hydrologic modeling. The HEFS leverages the skill in weather and climate forecasts to produce ensemble forecasts of precipitation, temperature and streamflow at forecast lead times ranging from one hour to one year. The resulting ensembles represent a rich dataset from which a wide variety of risk-based decision support information can be derived. The NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs) are starting to incorporate the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS,) into their routine operations. In 2012, five (of thirteen) RFCs began running and testing HEFS in an experimental mode. In 2015, HEFS was deployed (including training and software support) to the eight remaining RFCs. Currently, all RFCs are running the HEFS every day in real-time for an increasing number of forecast locations. Eventually, forecasts from the HEFS will be integrated into the warning/hazard services at the NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs). This contribution describes the HEFS framework, the development and deployment strategy, and the operational plans for HEFS going forward.

  3. A New Integrated Neural Network Architecture for Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teegavarapu, R. S.

    2005-12-01

    Streamflow time series often provide valuable insights into the underlying physical processes that govern response of any watershed. Patterns derived from time series based on repeated structures within these series can be beneficial for developing new or improved data-driven forecasting models. Data-driven models, artificial neural networks (ANN), are developed in the current study for streamflow prediction using input structures that are classified into geometrically similar patterns. The number of patterns that are identified in a series depends on the lagged values of streamflows used in the input structures of the ANN model. A new modular and integrated ANN architecture that combines several ANN models, referred to as pattern-classified neural network (PCNN), is proposed, developed and investigated in this study. The ANN models are used for one step-ahead prediction of streamflows for Reed Creek and Little River, Virginia. Results obtained from this study suggest that the use of these patterns in the process of training has improved the performance of the neural networks in prediction. The improved performance of the ANN models can be attributed to prior classification of data, which in a way has complimented and enhanced the already existing classification abilities of the neural networks. The PCNN architecture also provides the benefit of better generalization of a data-driven model by developing several independent models instead of one global data-driven prediction model for the entire data.

  4. Diagnostic studies of ensemble forecast "jumps"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Magnusson, Linus; Hewson, Tim; Ferranti, Laura; Rodwell, Mark

    2016-04-01

    During 2015 we saw exceptional consistency in successive seasonal forecasts produced at ECMWF, for the winter period 2015/16, right across the globe. This winter was characterised by a well-predicted and unusually strong El Nino, and some have ascribed the consistency to that. For most of December this consistency was mirrored in the (separate) ECMWF monthly forecast system, which correctly predicted anomalously strong (mild) zonal flow, over the North Atlantic and western Eurasia, even in forecasts for weeks 3 and 4. In monthly forecasts in general these weeks are often devoid of strong signals. However in late December and early January strong signals, even in week 2, proved to be incorrect, most notably over the North Atlantic and Eurasian sectors. Indeed on at least two occasions the outcome was beyond the ensemble forecast range over Scandinavia. In one of these conditions flipped from extreme mild to extreme cold as a high latitude block developed. Temperature prediction is very important to many customers, notably those dealing with renewable energy, because cold weather causes increased demand but also tends to coincide with reduced wind power production. So understandably jumps can cause consternation amongst some customer groups, and are very difficult to handle operationally. This presentation will discuss the results of initial diagnostic investigations into what caused the "ensemble jumps", particularly at the week two lead, though reference will also be made to a related shorter range (day 3) jump that was important for flooding over the UK. Initial results suggest that an inability of the ECMWF model to correctly represent convective outbreaks over North America (that for winter-time were quite extreme) played an important role. Significantly, during this period, an unusually large amount of upper air data over North America was rejected or ascribed low weight. These results bear similarities to previous diagnostic studies at ECMWF, wherein major

  5. Impact of the use of two different hydrological models on scores of hydrological ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramos, M. H.; Thirel, G.; Andréassian, V.; Martin, E.

    2009-04-01

    The aim of this study is two-fold. Firstly, a comparative analysis is conducted to assess the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modelling conceptualizations of catchment response, both driven by the same weather ensemble prediction system. Secondly, the results are jointly investigated with a view to providing guidance on the operational use of ensemble forecast products for flood warning at national hydrologic forecasting services. The study is based on weather forecasts from the ensemble prediction system PEARP of Météo-France, which was originally developed to better predict high impact storms in France. PEARP forecasts are based on the global spectral ARPEGE model zoomed over France. Initial perturbations are generated by the singular vector technique. The model runs 11 perturbed members for a forecast range of 60 hours. In this study, the two hydrological modelling approaches used are: 1) the coupled physically-based hydro-meteorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU developed at Météo-France and based on a fully distributed catchment model, and 2) the GRPE forecasting system developed at Cemagref and based on a lumped soil-moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model. Both models were set up and tested on about 1000 catchments in France. For this study, a common subset of about 250 gauging stations representative of a wide range of upstream areas and hydro-meteorological conditions was selected. The discharges simulated by both systems are compared over an 18-month period (March 2005-September 2006). Skill scores are then computed for the first two days of forecast range and the performance of both hydrologic ensemble forecasting systems is assessed. The results of this experiment are examined with a focus on the setting up of a fully operational product in real-time hydrological forecasting. The combined use of forecasts issued by different systems is a demand of French operational forecasting service to better guide flood warning

  6. From Interannual Streamflow Forecasts to New Water Management Strategies for Ceara, N. E. Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lall, U.; Sharma, A.; Arumugam, S.; de Souza Filho, A. F.

    2002-12-01

    Extended range climate forecasts are opening the way for innovations in water marketing and management. Here, we first describe how climate predictors are used for forecasting multivariate streamflow sequences up to 18 months into the future. These forecasts then provide the basis for a new scheme of allocation of water to different sectors of use via annual reliable contracts, derived through reservoir optimization and simulation using policy and economic measures, the ensemble forecasts, and reliability levels and monthly demand patterns for each contract type that are specified by a "river basin water committee". These wholesale contracts are then disaggregated within each sector through an auction or bidding process, where the rights of economically disadvantaged users are protected via bidding through coalitions or the state bidding on their behalf. Contract holders have the option of exercising or trading their contracts. Subsequently, the reservoir system is operated to meet these contracts at the specified level of reliability, prioritize failures, and to allocate non-contract water using updated forecasts. The contracts function like an insurance policy in that the holder is given compensation as per initially agreed on terms, in the event of contract failure. The process is being applied in Ceara, N. E. Brazil, where forecast skill and vulnerability to drought are high.

  7. Ensemble probabilistic streamflow generation using long-term MODIS snow product

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uysal, Gokcen; Sorman, Arda; Sensoy, Aynur

    2016-04-01

    Alternative techniques to generate streamflow provides more robust model sets for mountainous basins where there is data and model uncertainty due to harsh topography and atmospheric conditions. Dedicated satellite data have extensively increasing potential in water resources and using them in short and long term analysis will provide better understanding of accumulation and melting processes of snow. Snow covered area (SCA) is governed by various climatic and topographic parameters, besides it can be detected by optic satellites due to high reflectance in visible band. Snow probability can be calculated in each pixel from past records by assuming occurrence of snow within selected period. Probabilistic snow depletions curves (P-SDCs) can be derived using snow probability maps. In this study, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) with visible/near-IR satellite daily P-SDCs are generated for melting period using daily cloud-free snow cover MOD10A images of 2001 - 2012 data. Study mainly aims to identify long term snow potential of the basin based on P-SDCs and the performances of probabilistic snow maps in snowmelt/runoff. Karasu (Upper Euphrates) Basin is one of the pilot basins having large snow covered areas contributing to high snowmelt during spring and large reservoirs located in the downstream indicate the need for an operational studies system in the region. Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is calibrated and validated for the water years of 2002 - 2012 and ensemble streamflow estimations are generated for 2013-2015 melting periods. Ensemble forecasts are compared with observed discharges and each year shows high correlation with one of the cumulative probability ranges.

  8. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending

  9. Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

    2016-04-01

    Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PD&Facute;s centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments

  10. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting purpose

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D. E.; Wang, Q. J.; Pagano, T. C.; Hapuarachchi, H. A. P.

    2013-05-01

    The quality of precipitation forecasts from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in Southeast Australia. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitation at point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. The four models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) including ACCESS-G with a 80 km resolution, ACCESS-R 37.5 km, ACCESS-A 12 km, and ACCESS-VT 5 km. The skill of the NWP precipitation forecasts varies considerably between rain gauging stations. In general, high spatial resolution (ACCESS-A and ACCESS-VT) and regional (ACCESS-R) NWP models overestimate precipitation in dry, low elevation areas and underestimate in wet, high elevation areas. The global model (ACCESS-G) consistently underestimates the precipitation at all stations and the bias increases with station elevation. The skill varies with forecast lead time and, in general, it decreases with the increasing lead time. When evaluated at finer spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 5 km, hourly), the precipitation forecasts appear to have very little skill. There is moderate skill at short lead times when the forecasts are averaged up to daily and/or catchment scale. The precipitation forecasts fail to produce a diurnal cycle shown in observed precipitation. Significant sampling uncertainty in the skill scores suggests that more data are required to get a reliable evaluation of the forecasts. The non-smooth decay of skill with forecast lead time can be attributed to diurnal cycle in the observation and sampling uncertainty. Future work is planned to assess the benefits of using the NWP rainfall forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting. Our findings here suggest that it is necessary to remove the systematic biases in rainfall forecasts, particularly those from low resolution models, before the rainfall forecasts can be used for streamflow forecasting.

  11. Characterizing the Behavior of NOAA's Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Whitin, B.; Brown, J.; Fickenscher, P.; Henkel, A.; Talanki, S.; Hartman, R.

    2014-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s National Weather Service (NWS) is implementing the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) across the operating areas of the 13 NWS River Forecast Centers (RFCs). As the implementation progresses, hindcasting and validation is necessary to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the HEFS and to guide its operational use. Particularly in regions such as California that encompass a broad range of elevation, temperature, and precipitation gradients, the quality of the HEFS forecasts will vary geographically, and it is important to understand the degrees and controls on forecast quality in this context. This study aims to develop a comprehensive understanding of the quality of HEFS forecasts in California, with the aim of guiding and enhancing the implementation of the HEFS, as well as informing end-users about the expected quality of the HEFS forecasts. The HEFS was calibrated with temperature and precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Also, in order to determine forecast skill and to benchmark the HEFS against a simpler forecasting system, the HEFS was calibrated with a conditional ("resampled") climatology. The calibrated HEFS was used to generate retrospective forecasts of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow for a 25-year (1985-2009) period for six basins in the state. The forecast horizon was 1-14 days. The retrospective forecasts were verified conditionally on forecast lead time, magnitude, and season. Preliminary results indicate that HEFS forecasts are much more skillful when forced by inputs from the GEFS, rather than resampled climatology. However, there are noticeable differences in forecast quality among basins. These observations demonstrate the applicability of HEFS in a wide hydroclimatic gradient within California, while highlighting the difficulty in generalizing its behavior across the state.

  12. Uncertainty in Dispersion Forecasting Using Meteorological Ensembles

    SciTech Connect

    Leach, M J; Chin, H-N

    2000-03-23

    A approach for quantifying meteorological uncertainty is via development of an ensemble of forecasts from slightly perturbed initial conditions (Sivillo et al., 1997) to predict the time evolution of the probability density function of atmospheric variables (Mullen and Baurnhefner, 1994). We create an ensemble of forecasts by varying the initial (and boundary) conditions for the COAMPS meteorological model. The variations in the initial conditions must be consistent with analysis error. Optimally, the range of initial conditions would encompass the ''true'' atmospheric state, but which is never actually known. Our method for creating varying initial conditions is to use different global data sets to derive the necessary data. We use two models from the National Weather Service (the AVN and ETA models) and one from the Navy (the NOGAPS model). In addition to those data sets we perturb the data from those models, using a normally distributed random number at each grid point in the COAMPS model. We perturb the (u,v) wind components, the temperature and the moisture. The size of the perturbation is determined by the variability within that variable field. The forecasts are run for 48 hours. We then use the output from the COAMPS model to drive a Lagrangian dispersion model (LODI) for simulated releases. The results from a simulated release from hour 33 are shown in Figure 1. The center of the domain is Oakland airport and the basic on-shore wind is from the southwest. In three of the simulations, the plume goes over the top of the hills to the northeast, and in the other three the plume hugs the coastline and goes around those hills The two solutions reflect a dependence on the Froude number, a ratio of the Kinetic energy to Potential energy. Higher Kinetic energy flow (Higher Froude number) flow goes over the top of the mountain, while lower Kinetic energy flow goes around the hills.

  13. Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supply in snow-dominated river catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anghileri, D.; Voisin, N.; Castelletti, A.; Pianosi, F.; Nijssen, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2016-06-01

    We present a forecast-based adaptive management framework for water supply reservoirs and evaluate the contribution of long-term inflow forecasts to reservoir operations. Our framework is developed for snow-dominated river basins that demonstrate large gaps in forecast skill between seasonal and inter-annual time horizons. We quantify and bound the contribution of seasonal and inter-annual forecast components to optimal, adaptive reservoir operation. The framework uses an Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach to generate retrospective, one-year-long streamflow forecasts based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model. We determine the optimal sequence of daily release decisions using the Model Predictive Control (MPC) optimization scheme. We then assess the forecast value by comparing system performance based on the ESP forecasts with the performances based on climatology and perfect forecasts. We distinguish among the relative contributions of the seasonal component of the forecast versus the inter-annual component by evaluating system performance based on hybrid forecasts, which are designed to isolate the two contributions. As an illustration, we first apply the forecast-based adaptive management framework to a specific case study, i.e., Oroville Reservoir in California, and we then modify the characteristics of the reservoir and the demand to demonstrate the transferability of the findings to other reservoir systems. Results from numerical experiments show that, on average, the overall ESP value in informing reservoir operation is 35% less than the perfect forecast value and the inter-annual component of the ESP forecast contributes 20-60% of the total forecast value.

  14. A probabilistic approach to forecast the uncertainty with ensemble spread

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Schaeybroeck, Bert; Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2015-04-01

    For most purposes the information gathered from an ensemble forecast is the ensemble mean and its uncertainty. The ensemble spread is commonly used as a measure of the uncertainty. We propose a method to assess whether the ensemble spread is a good measure of uncertainty and to bring forward an underlying spread-skill relationship. Forecasting the uncertainty should be probabilistic of nature. This implies that, if only the ensemble spread is available, a probability density function (PDF) for the uncertainty forecast must be reconstructed based on one parameter. Different models are introduced for the composition of such PDFs and evaluated for different spread-error metrics. The uncertainty forecast can then be verified based on probabilistic skill scores. For a perfectly reliable forecast the spread-error relationship is strongly heteroscedastic since the error can take a wide range of values, proportional to the ensemble spread. This makes a proper statistical assessment of the spread-skill relation intricate. However, it is shown that a logarithmic transformation of both spread and error allows for alleviating the heteroscedasticity. A linear regression analysis can then be performed to check whether the flow-dependent spread is a realistic indicator of the uncertainty and to what extent ensemble underdispersion or overdispersion depends on the ensemble spread. The methods are tested on the ensemble forecast of wind and geopotential height of the European Centre of Medium-range forecasts (ECMWF) over Europe and Africa. A comparison is also made with spread-skill analysis based on binning methods.

  15. Application of quantitative precipitation forecasting and precipitation ensemble prediction for hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tao, P.; Tie-Yuan, S.; Zhi-Yuan, Y.; Jun-Chao, W.

    2015-05-01

    The precipitation in the forecast period influences flood forecasting precision, due to the uncertainty of the input to the hydrological model. Taking the ZhangHe basin as the example, the research adopts the precipitation forecast and ensemble precipitation forecast product of the AREM model, uses the Xin Anjiang hydrological model, and tests the flood forecasts. The results show that the flood forecast result can be clearly improved when considering precipitation during the forecast period. Hydrological forecast based on Ensemble Precipitation prediction gives better hydrological forecast information, better satisfying the need for risk information for flood prevention and disaster reduction, and has broad development opportunities.

  16. Experimental Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System for Collaborative R&D and Research-to-Operations Transition in NWS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D.; Liu, Y.; Herr, H.

    2008-12-01

    Providing uncertainty information is one of the most pressing needs of operational hydrologic forecasting in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) today. To address this need, the NWS Office of Hydrologic Development (OHD) is developing the EXperimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS), an integrated short- to long-range hydrologic ensemble prediction system to be implemented at the NWS River Forecast Centers for experimental operation within the next two years. The baseline system includes the Ensemble Pre-Processor (EPP3), Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP2) subsystem, Hydrologic Model Output Statistics (HMOS) streamflow ensemble processor, Ensemble Post-Processor (EnsPost) and the Ensemble Product Generator (EPG), and will use the service-oriented architecture of the Early Flood Warning System (FEWS) of Deltares. To support in-house and collaborative research and development of hydrologic ensemble prediction and data assimilation capabilities, NWS/OHD is developing a research and development version of XEFS, or R&D XEFS, of which the above baseline system is a subset. In this presentation, we describe the overall framework and major components of the R&D XEFS, progress to date, plans, challenges and opportunities for collaborative R&D and research-to-operations transition of the research outcome into NWS hydrologic operations and services.

  17. Evaluation of numerical weather prediction model precipitation forecasts for use in short-term streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shrestha, D. L.; Robertson, D. E.; Wang, Q. J.; Pagano, T. C.; Hapuarachchi, P.

    2012-11-01

    The quality of precipitation forecasts from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is evaluated over the Ovens catchment in southeast Australia. Precipitation forecasts are compared with observed precipitation at point and catchment scales and at different temporal resolutions. The four models evaluated are the Australian Community Climate Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) including ACCESS-G with a 80 km resolution, ACCESS-R 37.5 km, ACCESS-A 12 km, and ACCESS-VT 5 km. The high spatial resolution NWP models (ACCESS-A and ACCESS-VT) appear to be relatively free of bias (i.e. <30%) for 24 h total precipitation forecasts. The low resolution models (ACCESS-R and ACCESS-G) have widespread systematic biases as large as 70%. When evaluated at finer spatial and temporal resolution (e.g. 5 km, hourly) against station observations, the precipitation forecasts appear to have very little skill. There is moderate skill at short lead times when the forecasts are averaged up to daily and/or catchment scale. The skill decreases with increasing lead times and the global model ACCESS-G does not have significant skill beyond 7 days. The precipitation forecasts fail to produce a diurnal cycle shown in observed precipitation. Significant sampling uncertainty in the skill scores suggests that more data are required to get a reliable evaluation of the forecasts. Future work is planned to assess the benefits of using the NWP rainfall forecasts for short-term streamflow forecasting. Our findings here suggest that it is necessary to remove the systematic biases in rainfall forecasts, particularly those from low resolution models, before the rainfall forecasts can be used for streamflow forecasting.

  18. A Sequential Monte Carlo Approach for Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hsu, K.; Sorooshian, S.

    2008-12-01

    As alternatives to traditional physically-based models, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models offer some advantages with respect to the flexibility of not requiring the precise quantitative mechanism of the process and the ability to train themselves from the data directly. In this study, an ANN model was used to generate one-day-ahead streamflow forecasts from the precipitation input over a catchment. Meanwhile, the ANN model parameters were trained using a Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approach, namely Regularized Particle Filter (RPF). The SMC approaches are known for their capabilities in tracking the states and parameters of a nonlinear dynamic process based on the Baye's rule and the proposed effective sampling and resampling strategies. In this study, five years of daily rainfall and streamflow measurement were used for model training. Variable sample sizes of RPF, from 200 to 2000, were tested. The results show that, after 1000 RPF samples, the simulation statistics, in terms of correlation coefficient, root mean square error, and bias, were stabilized. It is also shown that the forecasted daily flows fit the observations very well, with the correlation coefficient of higher than 0.95. The results of RPF simulations were also compared with those from the popular back-propagation ANN training approach. The pros and cons of using SMC approach and the traditional back-propagation approach will be discussed.

  19. Decomposition of Sources of Errors in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting over the US Sunbelt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, A.; Sinha, T.; Kumar, S.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arumugam, S.

    2014-12-01

    In order to better manage water demands from multiple uses (e.g., municipal water demands, hydroelectric power generation, and agricultural operations), water resources managers and operators are interested to know potential changes in seasonal streamflow based on climate forecasts. However, various sources of uncertainty in forecasting streamflow pose significant challenges to utilize streamflow forecasts in real time operations. In this study we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from multiple Land Surface Models (LSMs) forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. The objectives of this study are: 1) Quantifying various sources of errors arising from each LSM, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques employed in developing streamflow forecasts, and 2) Comparing the performance and the skill of different LSMs in streamflow forecasting over selected target basins in the study area. First, three-month ahead precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 GCM for each season were statistically downscaled from 2.8° to 1/8° scale using Principal Component Regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using K-Nearest-Neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings excluding precipitation we obtained hourly climatology over almost 30 years (from 1979 to 2010) from NLDAS-2 dataset. Then LSMs such as NOAH3.2 and CLM2 were forced with precipitation forecasts and climatological forcings to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecast over the period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of different LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes were analyzed to quantify sources of errors and to validate forecasted streamflow.

  20. Assessing the potential skill of seasonal streamflow forecasting for the River Rhine and the Upper Danube Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, B.; Meissner, D.; Gerl, N.; Hemri, S.; Gneiting, T. J.

    2013-12-01

    the two basins. For the River Rhine with a catchment area of approx. 185.000 km2 the semi-distributed HBV model with a time-step of one day and for the Upper Danube Basin (102.000 km2) the water balance model COSERO with a time-step of 1 month are applied. As observed meteorological input the ERA Interim dataset is used, which is statistically downscaled from its relatively coarse grid resolution to the subbasins of the models. As meteorological forecast input two different approaches are used for the 30-year hindcast period in this study: (a) the Extended Streamflow Prediction ESP - a resampling approach of historical meteorology - which is applied to asses the potential predictability arising from the initial conditions and (b) the ensemble re-forecasts of the ECMWF seasonal forecast system 4 - a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model - used to quantify the potential benefit of numerical weather forecasts. Bayesian Model Averaging BMA and Ensemble-Model Output statistics EMOS are applied to the generated seasonal ensemble streamflow forecasts for calibration and the estimation of the predictive probability density function. Different skill measures are used to verify the potential skill of the seasonal forecasts of the different methods.

  1. Ensemble seasonal hydrological forecasting at the pan-European scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pechlivanidis, Ilias; Spångmyr, Henrik; Bosshard, Thomas; Gustafsson, David; Olsson, Jonas

    2015-04-01

    Recent advances in understanding and forecasting of climate and climate change have resulted into skillful and useful meteorological predictions, which can consequently increase the confidence of hydrological prognosis and awareness from an end-user perspective. However, the majority of seasonal impact modelling has commonly been conducted at only one or a limited number of basins limiting the need to understand large systems which are heavily influenced by human activities. In here, we complement the "deep" knowledge from basin based modelling using large scale multi-basin modelling, which is capable of representing human influences (i.e. irrigation, reservoirs and groundwater use). We analyse the seasonal predictive skill along Europe's hydro-climatic gradient using the pan-European E-HYPE v3.0 multi-basin hydrological model. Forcing data (mean daily precipitation and temperature) are derived from the WFDEI product for the period 1979-2010 and used to initialise the hydrological model (level in surface water, i.e. reservoirs, lakes and wetlands, soil moisture, snow depth). Re-forecast forcing data (daily mean precipitation and temperature for the period 1981-2010) from ECMWF's System 4 (15 members initialised every month) are firstly bias corrected using a modified version of the Distribution Based Scaling (DBS) method to account for drifting conditioning the bias correction on the lead month, and further used to drive E-HYPE. The predictive skill of river runoff for a number of European basins is assessed on seasonal timescales. Seasonal re-forecasts are evaluated with respect to their accuracy against observed impact variables, i.e. streamflow, at different space and time-scales; the value of the predictions are assessed using various performance metrics. Verification points (around 2600 stations) are used to represent various climatologies, soil-types, land uses, altitudes and basin scales within Europe. We finally identify regions of similar hydrological

  2. An evaluation of the combined benefits of post-processing forcing and flow ensembles when conducting ensemble streamflow prediction, with application to the River Rhine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Weerts, A.

    2011-12-01

    and temperature reforecasts from the ECMWF EPS are used to force the HBV hydrological model. The atmospheric forcing is rescaled to the hydrologic sub-basins used in the HBV model and bias-corrected using the Indicator Cokriging (ICK) post-processor. The hydrologic forecasts are post-processed and evaluated at multiple forecast lead times and for sub-basins of the River Rhine, as well as the outlet at Lobith. A number of techniques including ICK, Quantile Regression, and the Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor are used to bias-correct the streamflow ensemble forecasts. Comparisons are made between the bias-corrected flow ensembles with and without the forcing post-processing for several attributes of forecast quality, including the unconditional bias, Type-I conditional bias (reliability), Type-II conditional bias, and forecast skill.

  3. An evaluation of the combined benefits of post-processing forcing and flow ensembles when conducting ensemble streamflow prediction, with application to the River Rhine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verkade, J. S.; Brown, J. D.; Weerts, A. H.

    2012-04-01

    and temperature reforecasts from the ECMWF EPS are used to force the HBV hydrological model. The atmospheric forcing is rescaled to the hydrologic sub-basins used in the HBV model and bias-corrected using the normal regression and Indicator Cokriging (ICK) techniques for temperature and precipitation forcings respectively. The hydrologic forecasts are post-processed and evaluated at multiple forecast lead times and for sub-basins of the River Rhine, as well as the outlet at Lobith. The Hydrologic Uncertainty Processor is used to bias-correct the streamflow ensemble forecasts. Comparisons are made between the bias-corrected flow ensembles with and without the forcing post-processing for several attributes of forecast quality, including the unconditional bias, Type-I conditional bias (reliability), Type-II conditional bias, and forecast skill.

  4. Impact of Spatial Interpolation Methods for Precipitation on Ensemble Streamflow Simulation From Watershed Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Y.; Clark, M. P.; Rajagopalan, B.

    2005-05-01

    Watershed models are used for simulating basin streamflows based on spatially sparse precipitation and temperature observations. The sparse observations are typically interpolated on a regular grid or a subbasin as inputs to the hydrologic models. Given the paucity in observations and nonhomogenous nature of the precipitation process, differences in interpolation methods can potentially impact the simulated streamflow. Of course, hydrologic model parameter uncertainty also contribute to the errors, but in this paper we focus on the uncertainty due to interpolation methods. To this end, first we developed a two-step process in which the precipitation occurrence is first generated via a logistic regression model, and the amounts are then estimated using a Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and Locally Weighted Polynomial Regression (LWP). The two-step approach is shown to capture the spatial variability of precipitation effectively than other competing traditional methods. Secondly, interpolated precipitation estimates are input into the watershed model, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) to estimate daily and consequently, monthly and seasonal streamflows. Streamflow estimates from PRMS are obtained for three methods of precipitation interpolation, MLR, LWP and the currently used method in PRMS, Climatological MLR (CMLR). Streamflows are compared on a variety of attributes. We find that the MLR and LWP methods perform much better in simulating the streamflows compared to CMLR. Ensembles of precipitation from the two methods (MLR and LWP) coupled with the logistic regression for precipitation occurrence, are generated to subsequently generate ensembles of streamflows from the watershed model. This approach captures the input uncertainty.

  5. A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2011-12-01

    The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density

  6. Streamflow forecast uncertainty evolution and its effect on real-time reservoir operation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Lu; Singh, Vijay P.; Lu, Weiwei; Zhang, Junhong; Zhou, Jianzhong; Guo, Shenglian

    2016-09-01

    When employing streamflow forecasting in practical applications, such as reservoir operation, one important issue is to deal with the uncertainty involved in forecasting. Traditional studies dealing with the uncertainty in streamflow forecasting have been limited in describing the evolution of forecast uncertainty. This paper proposes a copula-based uncertainty evolution (CUE) model to describe the evolution of streamflow forecast uncertainty. The generated forecast uncertainty series fits the observed series well in terms of observed mean, standard deviation and skewness. Daily flow with forecast uncertainty are simulated and used to determine the effect of forecast uncertainty on real-time reservoir operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR), China. Results show that using the forecast inflow coupled with the pre-release module for reservoir operation of TGR in flood season cannot increase the flood risk.

  7. Streamflow Forecasts in Poorly Documented Basins from Meteorological Fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uribe, E. M.; Shuttleworth, J. W.; Gupta, H. V.; Mullen, S. L.; Zeng, X.

    2006-12-01

    This paper describes research undertaken in support of a project that seeks to enable the interpretation of predicted meteorological fields in terms of the streamflow in poorly documented catchments. The focus in this presentation is on addressing the issues involved in parameterizing and calibrating the hydrological model to do this in basins where available local data is limited. Hydrological modeling depends on the information available for basin characterization and model validation and calibration and most publicly available models require information not readily available in many regions of the world. Therefore, alternative approaches to the characterization of a basin are required so that stakeholders can benefit from climate forecasts via model estimates of streamflow. An alternative methodology for the parameterization of a basin using globally and publicly available data is proposed for the Modular Modeling System Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (MMS-PRMS). The methodology is based on deriving topography, soil and vegetation parameters from remote sensing and processed digital maps. In this study this model was forced with daily rainfall observations from a local rain gauge network between 1948 and 1978 and the resulting streamflow predictions evaluated and the model calibrated against long records of daily observations. The short-term predictive capabilities of the calibrated model are then tested using daily rainfall forecasts derived from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) from 1979 to 1990. The methodology is tested in the basin of the "Rio Grijalva", which is located in southern Mexico. Use of the model in this basin benefits from the alternative characterization methods described because the local information available for this basin is not sufficient to parameterize physically-based hydrological models. Additionally, the events responsible for the rainfall variability during the wet-season in this basin include diverse weather

  8. Streamflow forecasting and data assimilation: bias in precipitation, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCreight, J. L.; Gochis, D. J.; Hoar, T.; Dugger, A. L.; Yu, W.

    2014-12-01

    Uncertainty in precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and model groundwater fluxes are first-order sources of error in streamflow forecasting. While near-surface estimates of soil moisture are now available from satellite, very few soil moisture observations below 5 cm depth or groundwater discharge estimates are available for operational forecasting. Radar precipitation estimates are subject to large biases, particularly during extreme events (e.g. Steiner et al., 2010) and their correction is not typically available in real-time. Streamflow data, however, are readily available in near-real-time and can be assimilated operationally to help constrain uncertainty in these uncertain states and improve streamflow forecasts. We examine the ability of streamflow observations to diagnose bias in the three most uncertain variables: precipitation forcing, soil moisture states, and groundwater fluxes. We investigate strategies for their subsequent bias correction. These include spinup and calibration strategies with and without the use of data assimilation and the determination of the proper spinup timescales. Global and spatially distributed multipliers on the uncertain states included in the assimilation state vector (e.g. Seo et al., 2003) will also be evaluated. We examine real cases and observing system simulation experiments for both normal and extreme rainfall events. One of our test cases considers the Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 where the range of disagreement amongst five precipitation estimates spanned a factor of five with only one exhibiting appreciable positive bias (Gochis et al, submitted). Our experiments are conducted using the WRF-Hydro model with the NoahMP land surface component and the data assimilation research testbed (DART). A variety of ensemble data assimilation approaches (filters) are considered. ReferencesGochis, DJ, et al. "The Great Colorado Flood of September 2013" BAMS (Submitted 4-7-14). Seo, DJ, V Koren, and N

  9. Ensemble approach for hydrological forecasting in ungauged catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Randrianasolo, Annie; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Andreassian, Vazken

    2013-04-01

    This study focuses on the application of ensemble approaches to forecast flows in ungauged catchments. The aim is to study the best strategy to search for information in gauged "donor" basins and to transfer it to the ungauged site. We investigate what information is needed to set up a rainfall-runoff model and to perform forecast updating in real time. These two components of a flood forecasting system are thus decoupled in our approach. The methodology adopted integrates the scenarios of regional transfer of information and the scenarios of ensemble weather forecasting together in a forecasting system. The approach of ensemble forecasting is thus generalised to the particular case of hydrological forecasting in ungauged basins. The study is based on 211 catchments in France and on an archive of about 4.5 years of ensemble forecasts of rainfall, which are used for hydrological modelling on a daily time step. Flow forecasts are evaluated with special attention paid to the attributes of reliability and accuracy of the forecasts. The results show that forecast reliability in ungauged sites can be improved by using several sets of parameters from neighbour catchments, while forecast accuracy is improved with the transfer of updating information from gauged neighbour catchments.

  10. Using ensemble streamflow prediction in the reservoir operation during drought by implicit and explicit stochastic optimization: case study in Shihmen Reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, Kuan-wen; Jiing-Yun You, Gene; Jang, Jiun-Huei

    2016-04-01

    One of the important goals of water resource management is the establishment of realistic reservoir operating policies for water allocation, especially during periods of drought. In the context of short-term (a few months) water management such as drought, we need to predict the future inflow and allocate current and future water resource to avoid severe economic loss. Because the future flow condition in uncertain, applying the stochastic optimization technique is common in guide reservoir operation. This study is trying to use the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in reservoir operation during drought. We develop reservoir operation model based on two stochastic optimization frameworks, the explicit stochastic optimization (ESO) or implicit stochastic optimization (ISO). Because the forecast is updated time by time, the rolling process is adapted, the decision process is ''rolled over'' every periods and extended into the future. This study use Shihmen Reservoir as a case study. The ensemble streamflow prediction is produced and provided by National Science and Technology Center for Disaster Reduction (NCDR). Not only expect to provide an appropriate framework in integrating streamflow forecast a reservoir operation during drought, we also aim to compare the ISO and ESO to identify their advantages and disadvantages. As a result, the streamflow forecast can directly contribute, rather than just be kept in mind, in the reservoir operation during drought period.

  11. Ensemble Bayesian forecasting system Part I: Theory and algorithms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herr, Henry D.; Krzysztofowicz, Roman

    2015-05-01

    The ensemble Bayesian forecasting system (EBFS), whose theory was published in 2001, is developed for the purpose of quantifying the total uncertainty about a discrete-time, continuous-state, non-stationary stochastic process such as a time series of stages, discharges, or volumes at a river gauge. The EBFS is built of three components: an input ensemble forecaster (IEF), which simulates the uncertainty associated with random inputs; a deterministic hydrologic model (of any complexity), which simulates physical processes within a river basin; and a hydrologic uncertainty processor (HUP), which simulates the hydrologic uncertainty (an aggregate of all uncertainties except input). It works as a Monte Carlo simulator: an ensemble of time series of inputs (e.g., precipitation amounts) generated by the IEF is transformed deterministically through a hydrologic model into an ensemble of time series of outputs, which is next transformed stochastically by the HUP into an ensemble of time series of predictands (e.g., river stages). Previous research indicated that in order to attain an acceptable sampling error, the ensemble size must be on the order of hundreds (for probabilistic river stage forecasts and probabilistic flood forecasts) or even thousands (for probabilistic stage transition forecasts). The computing time needed to run the hydrologic model this many times renders the straightforward simulations operationally infeasible. This motivates the development of the ensemble Bayesian forecasting system with randomization (EBFSR), which takes full advantage of the analytic meta-Gaussian HUP and generates multiple ensemble members after each run of the hydrologic model; this auxiliary randomization reduces the required size of the meteorological input ensemble and makes it operationally feasible to generate a Bayesian ensemble forecast of large size. Such a forecast quantifies the total uncertainty, is well calibrated against the prior (climatic) distribution of

  12. Upper Colorado River and Great Basin streamflow and snowpack forecasting using Pacific oceanic-atmospheric variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oubeidillah, Abdoul A.; Tootle, Glenn A.; Moser, Cody; Piechota, Thomas; Lamb, Kenneth

    2011-11-01

    SummaryWater managers in western U.S., including areas such as the State of Utah, are challenged with managing scarce resources and thus, rely heavily on forecasts to allocate and meet various water demands. The need for improved streamflow and snowpack forecast models in the Upper Colorado River and Great Basin is of the utmost importance. In this research, the use of oceanic and climatic variables as predictors to improve the long lead-time (three to nine months) forecast of streamflow and snowpack was investigated. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was used to identify a region of Pacific Ocean SSTs and a region of 500 mbar geopotential height (Z 500) that were teleconnected with streamflow (and snowpack) in Upper Colorado River and Great Basin headwaters. The resulting Pacific Ocean SSTs and Z 500 regions were used to create indices that were then used as predictors in a non-parametric forecasting model. The majority of forecasts resulted in positive statistical skill, which indicated an improvement of the forecast over the climatology or no-skill forecast. The results indicated that derived indices from Pacific Ocean SSTs were better suited for long lead-time (six to nine month) forecasts of streamflow (and snowpack) while the derived indices from Z 500 improved short-lead time (3 month) forecasts. In all, the results of the forecast model indicated that incorporating Pacific oceanic-atmospheric climatic variability in forecast models can lead to improved forecasts for both streamflow and snowpack.

  13. Using ensembles in water management: forecasting dry and wet episodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van het Schip-Haverkamp, Tessa; van den Berg, Wim; van de Beek, Remco

    2015-04-01

    Extreme weather situations as droughts and extensive precipitation are becoming more frequent, which makes it more important to obtain accurate weather forecasts for the short and long term. Ensembles can provide a solution in terms of scenario forecasts. MeteoGroup uses ensembles in a new forecasting technique which presents a number of weather scenarios for a dynamical water management project, called Water-Rijk, in which water storage and water retention plays a large role. The Water-Rijk is part of Park Lingezegen, which is located between Arnhem and Nijmegen in the Netherlands. In collaboration with the University of Wageningen, Alterra and Eijkelkamp a forecasting system is developed for this area which can provide water boards with a number of weather and hydrology scenarios in order to assist in the decision whether or not water retention or water storage is necessary in the near future. In order to make a forecast for drought and extensive precipitation, the difference 'precipitation- evaporation' is used as a measurement of drought in the weather forecasts. In case of an upcoming drought this difference will take larger negative values. In case of a wet episode, this difference will be positive. The Makkink potential evaporation is used which gives the most accurate potential evaporation values during the summer, when evaporation plays an important role in the availability of surface water. Scenarios are determined by reducing the large number of forecasts in the ensemble to a number of averaged members with each its own likelihood of occurrence. For the Water-Rijk project 5 scenario forecasts are calculated: extreme dry, dry, normal, wet and extreme wet. These scenarios are constructed for two forecasting periods, each using its own ensemble technique: up to 48 hours ahead and up to 15 days ahead. The 48-hour forecast uses an ensemble constructed from forecasts of multiple high-resolution regional models: UKMO's Euro4 model,the ECMWF model, WRF and

  14. Verification of ensemble flow forecasts for the River Rhine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renner, M.; Werner, M. G. F.; Rademacher, S.; Sprokkereef, E.

    2009-10-01

    SummaryEnsemble stream flow predictions obtained by forcing rainfall-runoff models with probabilistic weather forecasting products are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this paper the performance of ensemble flow forecasts at various stations in the Rhine basin are studied by the means of probabilistic verification statistics. When compared to climatology positive skill scores are found at all river gauges for lead times of up to 9 days, thus proving the medium-range flow forecasts to be useful. A preliminary comparison between the low resolution ECMWF-EPS forecast and the high-resolution COSMO-LEPS forecast products shows that downscaling of global meteorological forecast products is recommended before use in forcing rainfall-runoff models in flow forecasting.

  15. An Ensemble Approach for Forecasting Net Interchange Schedule

    SciTech Connect

    Vlachopoulou, Maria; Gosink, Luke J.; Pulsipher, Trenton C.; Ferryman, Thomas A.; Zhou, Ning; Tong, Jianzhong

    2013-09-01

    The net interchange schedule (NIS) is the sum of the transactions (MW) between an ISO/RTO and its neighbors. Effective forecasting of the submitted NIS can improve grid operation efficiency. This paper applies a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique to forecast submitted NIS. As an ensemble approach, the BMA method aggregates different forecasting models in order to improve forecasting accuracy and consistency. In this study, the BMA method is compared to two alternative approaches: a stepwise regression method and an artificial neural network (ANN) trained for NIS forecasting. In our comparative analysis, we use field measurement data from the Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland (PJM) Regional Transmission Organization (RTO) to train and test each method. Our preliminary results indicate that ensemble-based methods can provide more accurate and consistent NIS forecasts in comparison to non-ensemble alternate methods.

  16. Toward Integrative Uncertainty Accounting in Operational Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seo, D.; Demargne, J.; Wu, L.; Brown, J. D.; Schaake, J. C.

    2007-12-01

    Operational hydrologic forecasts are subject to large meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties, i.e., uncertainties in the hydrologic initial and boundary conditions, future boundary conditions, and observations. To produce reliable and skillful hydrologic ensemble forecasts, it is essential that both meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties are accurately accounted for. Toward that goal, NWS is developing a prototype hydrologic ensemble forecasting capability referred to as the eXperimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS) for operation at the NWS River Forecast Centers (RFC). It is envisioned that all or parts of this system may be shared with the research community for collaborative research and development toward improved operational hydrologic forecasting. In this talk, we describe the XEFS framework for integrative uncertainty accounting, identify key issues and share initial results.

  17. An educational model for ensemble streamflow simulation and uncertainty analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    AghaKouchak, A.; Nakhjiri, N.; Habib, E.

    2013-02-01

    This paper presents the hands-on modeling toolbox, HBV-Ensemble, designed as a complement to theoretical hydrology lectures, to teach hydrological processes and their uncertainties. The HBV-Ensemble can be used for in-class lab practices and homework assignments, and assessment of students' understanding of hydrological processes. Using this modeling toolbox, students can gain more insights into how hydrological processes (e.g., precipitation, snowmelt and snow accumulation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff generation) are interconnected. The educational toolbox includes a MATLAB Graphical User Interface (GUI) and an ensemble simulation scheme that can be used for teaching uncertainty analysis, parameter estimation, ensemble simulation and model sensitivity. HBV-Ensemble was administered in a class for both in-class instruction and a final project, and students submitted their feedback about the toolbox. The results indicate that this educational software had a positive impact on students understanding and knowledge of uncertainty in hydrological modeling.

  18. Trends in the predictive performance of raw ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, Stephan; Scheuerer, Michael; Pappenberger, Florian; Bogner, Konrad; Haiden, Thomas

    2015-04-01

    Over the last two decades the paradigm in weather forecasting has shifted from being deterministic to probabilistic. Accordingly, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been run increasingly as ensemble forecasting systems. The goal of such ensemble forecasts is to approximate the forecast probability distribution by a finite sample of scenarios. Global ensemble forecast systems, like the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble, are prone to probabilistic biases, and are therefore not reliable. They particularly tend to be underdispersive for surface weather parameters. Hence, statistical post-processing is required in order to obtain reliable and sharp forecasts. In this study we apply statistical post-processing to ensemble forecasts of near-surface temperature, 24-hour precipitation totals, and near-surface wind speed from the global ECMWF model. Our main objective is to evaluate the evolution of the difference in skill between the raw ensemble and the post-processed forecasts. The ECMWF ensemble is under continuous development, and hence its forecast skill improves over time. Parts of these improvements may be due to a reduction of probabilistic bias. Thus, we first hypothesize that the gain by post-processing decreases over time. Based on ECMWF forecasts from January 2002 to March 2014 and corresponding observations from globally distributed stations we generate post-processed forecasts by ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) for each station and variable. Parameter estimates are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over rolling training periods that consist of the n days preceding the initialization dates. Given the higher average skill in terms of CRPS of the post-processed forecasts for all three variables, we analyze the evolution of the difference in skill between raw ensemble and EMOS forecasts. The fact that the gap in skill remains almost constant over time, especially for near

  19. A retrospective assessment of National Centers for Environmental Prediction climate model-based ensemble hydrologic forecasting in the western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, Andrew W.; Kumar, Arun; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2005-02-01

    We assess the potential forecast skill of a climate model-based approach for seasonal ensemble hydrologic and streamflow forecasting for the western United States. By using climate model ensemble forecasts and ensembles formed via the resampling of observations, we distinguish hydrologic forecast skill resulting from the predictable evolution of initial hydrologic conditions from that derived from the climate model forecasts. Monthly climate model ensembles of precipitation and temperature produced by the National Centers for Environmental prediction global spectral model (GSM) are downscaled for use as forcings of the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrologic model. VIC then simulates ensembles of streamflow and spatially distributed hydrologic variables such as snowpack, soil moisture, and runoff. The regional averages of the ensemble forcings and derived hydrologic variables were evaluated over five regions: the Pacific Northwest, California, the Great Basin, the Colorado River basin, and the upper Rio Grande River basin. The skill assessment focuses on a retrospective 21-year period (1979-1999) during which GSM retrospective forecast ensembles (termed hindcasts), created using similar procedures to GSM real-time forecasts, are available. The observational verification data set for the hindcasts was a retrospective hydroclimatology at 1/8°-1/4° consisting of gridded observations of temperature and precipitation and gridded hydrologic simulation results (for hydrologic variables and streamflow) based on the observed meteorological inputs. The GSM hindcast skill was assessed relative to that of a naive ensemble climatology forecast and to that of ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) hindcasts, a forecast baseline sharing the same initial condition information as the GSM-based hindcasts. We found that the unconditional (all years) GSM hindcasts for regionally averaged variables provided practically no skill improvement over the ESP hindcasts and did not

  20. Modification of input datasets for the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction based on large-scale climatic indices and weather generator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Šípek, Václav; Daňhelka, Jan

    2015-09-01

    Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) provides an efficient tool for seasonal hydrological forecasts. In this study, we propose a new modification of input data series for the ESP system used for the runoff volume prediction with a lead of one month. These series are not represented by short historical weather datasets but by longer generated synthetic weather data series. Before their submission to the hydrological model, their number is restricted by relations among observed meteorological variables (average monthly precipitation and temperature) and large-scale climatic patterns and indices (e.g. North Atlantic Oscillation, sea level pressure values and two geopotential heights). This modification was tested over a four-year testing period using the river basin in central Europe. The LARS-WG weather generator proved to be a suitable tool for the extension of the historical weather records. The modified ESP approach proved to be more efficient in the majority of months compared both to the original ESP method and reference forecast (based on probability distribution of historical discharges). The improvement over traditional ESP was most obvious in the narrower forecast interval of the expected runoff volume. The inefficient forecasts of the modified ESP scheme (compared to traditional ESP) were conditioned by an insufficient restriction of input synthetic weather datasets by the climate forecast.

  1. Decomposition of sources of errors in seasonal streamflow forecasting over the U.S. Sunbelt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mazrooei, Amirhossein; Sinha, Tushar; Sankarasubramanian, A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

    2015-12-01

    Seasonal streamflow forecasts, contingent on climate information, can be utilized to ensure water supply for multiple uses including municipal demands, hydroelectric power generation, and for planning agricultural operations. However, uncertainties in the streamflow forecasts pose significant challenges in their utilization in real-time operations. In this study, we systematically decompose various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecasts from two Land Surface Models (LSMs) (Noah3.2 and CLM2), which are forced with downscaled and disaggregated climate forecasts. In particular, the study quantifies the relative contributions of the sources of errors from LSMs, climate forecasts, and downscaling/disaggregation techniques in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. For this purpose, three month ahead seasonal precipitation forecasts from the ECHAM4.5 general circulation model (GCM) were statistically downscaled from 2.8° to 1/8° spatial resolution using principal component regression (PCR) and then temporally disaggregated from monthly to daily time step using kernel-nearest neighbor (K-NN) approach. For other climatic forcings, excluding precipitation, we considered the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2) hourly climatology over the years 1979 to 2010. Then the selected LSMs were forced with precipitation forecasts and NLDAS-2 hourly climatology to develop retrospective seasonal streamflow forecasts over a period of 20 years (1991-2010). Finally, the performance of LSMs in forecasting streamflow under different schemes was analyzed to quantify the relative contribution of various sources of errors in developing seasonal streamflow forecast. Our results indicate that the most dominant source of errors during winter and fall seasons is the errors due to ECHAM4.5 precipitation forecasts, while temporal disaggregation scheme contributes to maximum errors during summer season.

  2. Streamflow Forecasting Using Nuero-Fuzzy Inference System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nanduri, U. V.; Swain, P. C.

    2005-12-01

    The prediction of flow into a reservoir is fundamental in water resources planning and management. The need for timely and accurate streamflow forecasting is widely recognized and emphasized by many in water resources fraternity. Real-time forecasts of natural inflows to reservoirs are of particular interest for operation and scheduling. The physical system of the river basin that takes the rainfall as an input and produces the runoff is highly nonlinear, complicated and very difficult to fully comprehend. The system is influenced by large number of factors and variables. The large spatial extent of the systems forces the uncertainty into the hydrologic information. A variety of methods have been proposed for forecasting reservoir inflows including conceptual (physical) and empirical (statistical) models (WMO 1994), but none of them can be considered as unique superior model (Shamseldin 1997). Owing to difficulties of formulating reasonable non-linear watershed models, recent attempts have resorted to Neural Network (NN) approach for complex hydrologic modeling. In recent years the use of soft computing in the field of hydrological forecasting is gaining ground. The relatively new soft computing technique of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), developed by Jang (1993) is able to take care of the non-linearity, uncertainty, and vagueness embedded in the system. It is a judicious combination of the Neural Networks and fuzzy systems. It can learn and generalize highly nonlinear and uncertain phenomena due to the embedded neural network (NN). NN is efficient in learning and generalization, and the fuzzy system mimics the cognitive capability of human brain. Hence, ANFIS can learn the complicated processes involved in the basin and correlate the precipitation to the corresponding discharge. In the present study, one step ahead forecasts are made for ten-daily flows, which are mostly required for short term operational planning of multipurpose reservoirs. A

  3. Forecasting European Droughts using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thober, Stephan; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis; Sheffield, Justin; Schäfer, David; Mai, Juliane

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture droughts have the potential to diminish crop yields causing economic damage or even threatening the livelihood of societies. State-of-the-art drought forecasting systems incorporate seasonal meteorological forecasts to estimate future drought conditions. Meteorological forecasting skill (in particular that of precipitation), however, is limited to a few weeks because of the chaotic behaviour of the atmosphere. One of the most important challenges in drought forecasting is to understand how the uncertainty in the atmospheric forcings (e.g., precipitation and temperature) is further propagated into hydrologic variables such as soil moisture. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) provides the latest collection of a multi-institutional seasonal forecasting ensemble for precipitation and temperature. In this study, we analyse the skill of NMME forecasts for predicting European drought events. The monthly NMME forecasts are downscaled to daily values to force the mesoscale hydrological model (mHM). The mHM soil moisture forecasts obtained with the forcings of the dynamical models are then compared against those obtained with the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) approach. ESP recombines historical meteorological forcings to create a new ensemble forecast. Both forecasts are compared against reference soil moisture conditions obtained using observation based meteorological forcings. The study is conducted for the period from 1982 to 2009 and covers a large part of the Pan-European domain (10°W to 40°E and 35°N to 55°N). Results indicate that NMME forecasts are better at predicting the reference soil moisture variability as compared to ESP. For example, NMME explains 50% of the variability in contrast to only 31% by ESP at a six-month lead time. The Equitable Threat Skill Score (ETS), which combines the hit and false alarm rates, is analysed for drought events using a 0.2 threshold of a soil moisture percentile index. On average, the NMME

  4. Verification of the Forecast Errors Based on Ensemble Spread

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vannitsem, S.; Van Schaeybroeck, B.

    2014-12-01

    The use of ensemble prediction systems allows for an uncertainty estimation of the forecast. Most end users do not require all the information contained in an ensemble and prefer the use of a single uncertainty measure. This measure is the ensemble spread which serves to forecast the forecast error. It is however unclear how best the quality of these forecasts can be performed, based on spread and forecast error only. The spread-error verification is intricate for two reasons: First for each probabilistic forecast only one observation is substantiated and second, the spread is not meant to provide an exact prediction for the error. Despite these facts several advances were recently made, all based on traditional deterministic verification of the error forecast. In particular, Grimit and Mass (2007) and Hopson (2014) considered in detail the strengths and weaknesses of the spread-error correlation, while Christensen et al (2014) developed a proper-score extension of the mean squared error. However, due to the strong variance of the error given a certain spread, the error forecast should be preferably considered as probabilistic in nature. In the present work, different probabilistic error models are proposed depending on the spread-error metrics used. Most of these models allow for the discrimination of a perfect forecast from an imperfect one, independent of the underlying ensemble distribution. The new spread-error scores are tested on the ensemble prediction system of the European Centre of Medium-range forecasts (ECMWF) over Europe and Africa. ReferencesChristensen, H. M., Moroz, I. M. and Palmer, T. N., 2014, Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts. In press, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society. Grimit, E. P., and C. F. Mass, 2007: Measuring the ensemble spread-error relationship with a probabilistic approach: Stochastic ensemble results. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 203

  5. Soil Moisture Initialization Error and Subgrid Variability of Precipitation in Seasonal Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koster, Randal D.; Walker, Gregory K.; Mahanama, Sarith P.; Reichle, Rolf H.

    2013-01-01

    Offline simulations over the conterminous United States (CONUS) with a land surface model are used to address two issues relevant to the forecasting of large-scale seasonal streamflow: (i) the extent to which errors in soil moisture initialization degrade streamflow forecasts, and (ii) the extent to which a realistic increase in the spatial resolution of forecasted precipitation would improve streamflow forecasts. The addition of error to a soil moisture initialization field is found to lead to a nearly proportional reduction in streamflow forecast skill. The linearity of the response allows the determination of a lower bound for the increase in streamflow forecast skill achievable through improved soil moisture estimation, e.g., through satellite-based soil moisture measurements. An increase in the resolution of precipitation is found to have an impact on large-scale streamflow forecasts only when evaporation variance is significant relative to the precipitation variance. This condition is met only in the western half of the CONUS domain. Taken together, the two studies demonstrate the utility of a continental-scale land surface modeling system as a tool for addressing the science of hydrological prediction.

  6. Operational Short-Term Flood Forecasting for Bangladesh: Application of ECMWF Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopson, T. M.; Webster, P. J.

    2004-12-01

    The country of Bangladesh frequently experiences severe catchment-scale flooding from the combined discharges of the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. Beginning in 2003, we have been disseminating upper-catchment discharge forecasts for this country to provide advanced warning for evacuation and relief measures. These forecasts are being generated using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) shortterm ensemble weather forecasts and a combination of distributed and data-based modeling techniques. The forecasts from each of these models are combined using the multi-ensemble technique commonly employed in numerical weather prediction. This leads to a reduction in the overall forecast error and capitalizes on the strengths of each model during different periods of the monsoon season. In addition, the models are combined such that the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts is retained while being combined with the discharge modeling error to produce true probabilistic forecasts of discharge that are being employed operationally.

  7. Online probabilistic learning with an ensemble of forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorey, Jean; Mallet, Vivien; Chaussin, Christophe

    2016-04-01

    Our objective is to produce a calibrated weighted ensemble to forecast a univariate time series. In addition to a meteorological ensemble of forecasts, we rely on observations or analyses of the target variable. The celebrated Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is used to evaluate the probabilistic forecasts. However applying the CRPS on weighted empirical distribution functions (deriving from the weighted ensemble) may introduce a bias because of which minimizing the CRPS does not produce the optimal weights. Thus we propose an unbiased version of the CRPS which relies on clusters of members and is strictly proper. We adapt online learning methods for the minimization of the CRPS. These methods generate the weights associated to the members in the forecasted empirical distribution function. The weights are updated before each forecast step using only past observations and forecasts. Our learning algorithms provide the theoretical guarantee that, in the long run, the CRPS of the weighted forecasts is at least as good as the CRPS of any weighted ensemble with weights constant in time. In particular, the performance of our forecast is better than that of any subset ensemble with uniform weights. A noteworthy advantage of our algorithm is that it does not require any assumption on the distributions of the observations and forecasts, both for the application and for the theoretical guarantee to hold. As application example on meteorological forecasts for photovoltaic production integration, we show that our algorithm generates a calibrated probabilistic forecast, with significant performance improvements on probabilistic diagnostic tools (the CRPS, the reliability diagram and the rank histogram).

  8. Interactive 3D visualisation of ECMWF ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2013-04-01

    We investigate the feasibility of interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble weather predictions in a way suited for weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns. The study builds upon our previous work on web-based, 2D visualisation of numerical weather prediction data for the purpose of research flight planning (Rautenhaus et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 5, 55-71, 2012). Now we explore how interactive 3D visualisation of ensemble forecasts can be used to quickly identify atmospheric features relevant to a flight and to assess their uncertainty. We use data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) and present techniques to interactively visualise the forecasts on a commodity desktop PC with a state-of-the-art graphics card. Major objectives of this study are: (1) help the user transition from the ``familiar'' 2D views (horizontal maps and vertical cross-sections) to 3D visualisation by putting interactive 2D views into a 3D context and enriching them with 3D elements, at the same time (2) maintain a high degree of quantitativeness in the visualisation to facilitate easy interpretation; (3) exploitation of the Graphics Processing Unit (GPU) for maximum interactivity; (4) investigation of how visualisation can be performed directly from datasets on ECMWF hybrid model levels; (5) development of a basic forecasting tool that provides synchronized navigation through forecast base and lead times, as well as through the ensemble dimension and (6) interactive computation and visualisation of ensemble-based quantities. A prototype of our tool was used for weather forecasting during the aircraft-based T-NAWDEX-Falcon field campaign, which took place in October 2012 at the German Aerospace Centre's (DLR) Oberpfaffenhofen base. We reconstruct the forecast of a warm conveyor belt situation that occurred during the campaign and discuss challenges and opportunities posed by employing three

  9. Ensemble forecasting of major solar flares: First results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guerra, J. A.; Pulkkinen, A.; Uritsky, V. M.

    2015-10-01

    We present the results from the first ensemble prediction model for major solar flares (M and X classes). The primary aim of this investigation is to explore the construction of an ensemble for an initial prototyping of this new concept. Using the probabilistic forecasts from three models hosted at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (NASA-GSFC) and the NOAA forecasts, we developed an ensemble forecast by linearly combining the flaring probabilities from all four methods. Performance-based combination weights were calculated using a Monte Carlo-type algorithm that applies a decision threshold Pth to the combined probabilities and maximizing the Heidke Skill Score (HSS). Using the data for 13 recent solar active regions between years 2012 and 2014, we found that linear combination methods can improve the overall probabilistic prediction and improve the categorical prediction for certain values of decision thresholds. Combination weights vary with the applied threshold and none of the tested individual forecasting models seem to provide more accurate predictions than the others for all values of Pth. According to the maximum values of HSS, a performance-based weights calculated by averaging over the sample, performed similarly to a equally weighted model. The values Pth for which the ensemble forecast performs the best are 25% for M-class flares and 15% for X-class flares. When the human-adjusted probabilities from NOAA are excluded from the ensemble, the ensemble performance in terms of the Heidke score is reduced.

  10. The use of MOGREPS ensemble rainfall forecasts in operational flood forecasting systems across England and Wales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schellekens, J.; Weerts, A. H.; Moore, R. J.; Pierce, C. E.; Hildon, S.

    2011-03-01

    Operational flood forecasting systems share a fundamental challenge: forecast uncertainty which needs to be considered when making a flood warning decision. One way of representing this uncertainty is through employing an ensemble approach. This paper presents research funded by the Environment Agency in which ensemble rainfall forecasts are utilised and tested for operational use. The form of ensemble rainfall forecast used is the Met Office short-range product called MOGREPS. It is tested for operational use within the Environment Agency's National Flood Forecasting System (NFFS) for England and Wales. Currently, the NFFS uses deterministic forecasts only. The operational configuration of the NFFS for Thames Region is extended to trial the use of the new ensemble rainfall forecasts in support of probabilistic flood forecasting. Evaluation includes considering issues of model performance, configuration (how to fit the ensemble forecasts within the current configurations), data volumes, run times and options for displaying probabilistic forecasts. Although ensemble rainfall forecasts available from MOGREPS are not extensive enough to fully verify product performance, it is concluded that their use within current Environment Agency regional flood forecasting systems can provide better information to the forecaster than use of the deterministic forecasts alone. Of note are the small number of false alarms of river flow exceedance generated when using MOGREPS as input and that small flow events are also forecasted rather well, notwithstanding the rather coarse resolution of the MOGREPS grid (24 km) compared to the studied catchments. In addition, it is concluded that, with careful configuration in NFFS, MOGREPS can be used in existing systems without a significant increase in system load.

  11. Impact of state updating and multi-parametric ensemble for streamflow hindcasting in European river basins

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noh, S. J.; Rakovec, O.; Kumar, R.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate and reliable streamflow prediction is essential to mitigate social and economic damage coming from water-related disasters such as flood and drought. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. However, if parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by model ensemble may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we evaluate impacts of streamflow data assimilation over European river basins. Especially, a multi-parametric ensemble approach is tested to consider the effects of parametric uncertainty in DA. Because augmentation of parameters is not required within an assimilation window, the approach could be more stable with limited ensemble members and have potential for operational uses. To consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes, lagged particle filtering is utilized. The presentation will be focused on gains and limitations of streamflow data assimilation and multi-parametric ensemble method over large-scale basins.

  12. Ensemble Solar Forecasting Statistical Quantification and Sensitivity Analysis: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Cheung, WanYin; Zhang, Jie; Florita, Anthony; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Lu, Siyuan; Hamann, Hendrik F.; Sun, Qian; Lehman, Brad

    2015-12-08

    Uncertainties associated with solar forecasts present challenges to maintain grid reliability, especially at high solar penetrations. This study aims to quantify the errors associated with the day-ahead solar forecast parameters and the theoretical solar power output for a 51-kW solar power plant in a utility area in the state of Vermont, U.S. Forecasts were generated by three numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, including the Rapid Refresh, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh, and the North American Model, and a machine-learning ensemble model. A photovoltaic (PV) performance model was adopted to calculate theoretical solar power generation using the forecast parameters (e.g., irradiance, cell temperature, and wind speed). Errors of the power outputs were quantified using statistical moments and a suite of metrics, such as the normalized root mean squared error (NRMSE). In addition, the PV model's sensitivity to different forecast parameters was quantified and analyzed. Results showed that the ensemble model yielded forecasts in all parameters with the smallest NRMSE. The NRMSE of solar irradiance forecasts of the ensemble NWP model was reduced by 28.10% compared to the best of the three NWP models. Further, the sensitivity analysis indicated that the errors of the forecasted cell temperature attributed only approximately 0.12% to the NRMSE of the power output as opposed to 7.44% from the forecasted solar irradiance.

  13. Evaluating reliability and resolution of ensemble forecasts using information theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weijs, Steven; van de Giesen, Nick

    2010-05-01

    Ensemble forecasts are increasingly popular for the communication of uncertainty towards the public and decision makers. Ideally, an ensemble forecast reflects both the uncertainty and the information in a forecast, which means that the spread in the ensemble should accurately represent the true uncertainty. For ensembles to be useful, they should be probabilistic, as probability is the language to precisely describe an incomplete state of knowledge, that is typical for forecasts. Information theory provides the ideal tools to deal with uncertainty and information in forecasts. Essential to the use and development of models and forecasts are ways to evaluate their quality. Without a proper definition of what is good, it is impossible to improve forecasts. In contrast to forecast value, which is user dependent, forecast quality, which is defined as the correspondence between forecasts and observations, can be objectively defined, given the question that is asked. The evaluation of forecast quality is known as forecast verification. Numerous techniques for forecast verification have been developed over the past decades. The Brier score (BS) and the derived Ranked Probability Score (RPS) are among the most widely used scores for measuring forecast quality. Both of these scores can be split into three additive components: uncertainty, reliability and resolution. While the first component, uncertainty, just depends on the inherent variability in the forecasted event, the latter two measure different aspects of the quality of forecasts themselves. Resolution measures the difference between the conditional probabilities and the marginal probabilities of occurrence. The third component, reliability, measures the conditional bias in the probability estimates, hence unreliability would be a better name. In this work, we argue that information theory should be adopted as the correct framework for measuring quality of probabilistic ensemble forecasts. We use the information

  14. Using satellite and multi-modeling for improving soil moisture and streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toll, David; Li, Bailing; Xiwu, Zhan; Brian, Cosgrove

    2010-05-01

    Work for this project is towards improving the stream flow forecasts for the NOAA River Forecast Centers (RFC) throughout the U.S. using multi-model capability primarily from the NASA Land Information System and remote sensing data provided by AMSR-E for soil moisture. The RFCs address a range of issues, including peak and low flow predictions as well as river floods and flash floods. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) provides a data integration framework for combining a range of ancillary and satellite data with state of the art data assimilation capabilities. We are currently including: 1) the Noah land surface model (LSM) simulates soil moisture (both liquid and frozen), soil temperature, skin temperature, snowpack water equivalent, snowpack density, canopy water content, and the traditional energy flux and water flux terms of the surface energy and surface water balance; 2) the Sacramento Distributed model is based on the lumped 'SAC-SMA' model used for hydrological simulations; and 3) the Catchment land surface model that is distinctive in the way land surface elements are depicted as hydrological catchments. Results from assimilating AMSR-E (Advances Microwave Sounding Radiometer) soil moisture with the Noah LSM using ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation. Results for a test site in Oklahoma, US show significant improvement for soil moisture estimation assimilating AMSR-E data. We used a conservation of mass procedure within a soil column to provide a more physically based approach to transfer observed soil moisture state to the lower soil moisture profiles. Overall the AMSR-e results shows improvement for improving the true spatial mean of soil moisture improvements. Noah LSM comparisons to determine if AMSR-E contributed to an improved streamflow showed inconclusive results. More accurate hydrologic improvements are expected from the new SMOS (Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity) and the future SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive). Future work will compare

  15. Ensembles of extremely randomized trees and feature ranking for streamflow prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Castelletti, Andrea; Galelli, Stefano

    2010-05-01

    Accurate and reliable stream-flow predictions are an important input to water resources planning and management processes, which heavily depend upon the availability of water (e.g. river basin planning, optimal reservoir operation, irrigation system management). Hydrological processes are extremely complex, combining high non-linearity and spatial-temporal variability. The prediction of hydrological variables is therefore a challenging task, very often complicated by lack of data and/or the presence of outliers. Usually, data-driven modelling provides a good balance between model accuracy and complexity, which are ultimately critical to the adoption of optimization-based approaches. While neural networks have been widely used in hydrological modelling (e.g. Govindaraju and Rao, 2000), tree-based model is a relatively unexplored methodology (Solomatine and Dual, 2003; Solomatine and Xue, 2004; Iorgulescu and Beven, 2004; Stravs and Brilly, 2007). In this paper a new data-driven modelling approach based on Ensembles of Extremely Randomized Trees (ETs; Geurts et al., 2006) is proposed for stream-flow prediction using different hydro-meteorological predictors. By randomizing the tree construction process and merging a forest of diversified trees to predict the output, ETs alleviate the well-known poor generalization property of traditional standalone decision tress (e.g. CART), thus avoid over fitting the training data. Input to the model are selected using a tree-based feature ranking algorithm, which ranks the candidate predictors (e.g. precipitation and evaporation at different stations, linear combinations thereof) according to their contribution in explaining the variance of an underlying ETs-based model of the stream-flow process. The approach is applied in the Red river basin (Vietnam), a sub-tropical catchment characterized by extremely variable weather conditions, where strong precipitations significantly contribute to the high flow. Results shown that

  16. Improving ensemble forecasting with q-norm bred vectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pazo, Diego; Lopez, Juan Manuel; Rodriguez, Miguel Angel

    2016-04-01

    Error breeding is a popular and simple method to generate initial perturbations for use in ensemble forecasting that is used for operational purposes in many weather/climate centres worldwide. There is a widespread belief among practitioners that the type of norm used in the periodic normalizations of BVs does not have an effect on the performance of ensemble forecasting systems. However, we have recently reported that BVs constructed with different norms have indeed very different dynamical and spatial properties. In particular, BVs constructed with the 0-norm or geometric norm has nice properties (e.g. enhancement of the ensemble diversity), which in principle render it more adequate to construct ensembles than other norm types like the Euclidean one. These advantages are clearly demonstrated here in a simple experiment of ensemble forecasting for the Lorenz-96 model with ensembles of BVs. Our simple numerical assimilation experiment shows how the increased statistical diversity of geometric BVs leads to improved scores regarding forecasting capabilities as compared with BVs constructed with the standard Euclidean norm.

  17. Forecasts of seasonal streamflow in West-Central Florida using multiple climate predictors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Risko, Susan L.; Martinez, Christopher J.

    2014-11-01

    Large-scale climate can provide predictive information for streamflow forecasts in many parts of the world. However, the optimal selection of predictors can be problematic when focusing on a localized region. This work evaluated multiple gridded climate datasets in order to determine optimal predictors of seasonal streamflow in West-Central Florida. Using persistence in streamflow, existing indices of climate, and sea surface temperature (SST) expansion coefficient time-series from singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis, this work developed probability of exceedance streamflow forecasts for multiple stations, seasons, and lead-times. Forecasts were found to be generally skillful between the September-November and April-June seasons with this range narrowing as lead time increased and skill was mainly related to the impact of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the region. Using multiple indices of ENSO that were determined by correlation and composite analyses to track its evolution from the west Pacific at long lead-times to the east Pacific at short lead-times was not found to appreciably improve forecasts over using the Niño 3.4 index alone. Using SST expansion coefficient time-series from SVD analysis was found to capture the evolution of ENSO from west to east and to provide skillful forecasts of streamflow at earlier leads (up to 7 months in advance) compared to that found by pre-defined indices, indicating the importance of predictor selection in achieving optimal forecast skill.

  18. Probabilistic flood warning using grand ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Y.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H.; Pappenberger, F.; Wilson, M.; Freer, J.; McGregor, G.

    2009-04-01

    As the severity of floods increases, possibly due to climate and landuse change, there is urgent need for more effective and reliable warning systems. The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood warning system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and can lead to a high number of false or missed warnings. An ensemble of weather forecasts from one Ensemble Prediction System (EPS), when used on catchment hydrology, can provide improved early flood warning as some of the uncertainties can be quantified. EPS forecasts from a single weather centre only account for part of the uncertainties originating from initial conditions and stochastic physics. Other sources of uncertainties, including numerical implementations and/or data assimilation, can only be assessed if a grand ensemble of EPSs from different weather centres is used. When various models that produce EPS from different weather centres are aggregated, the probabilistic nature of the ensemble precipitation forecasts can be better retained and accounted for. The availability of twelve global EPSs through the 'THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for the design of an improved probabilistic flood forecasting framework. This work presents a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning on a meso-scale catchment. The upper reach of the River Severn catchment located in the Midlands Region of England is selected due to its abundant data for investigation and its relatively small size (4062 km2) (compared to the resolution of the NWPs). This choice was deliberate as we hypothesize that the uncertainty in the forcing of smaller catchments cannot be represented by a single EPS with a very limited number of ensemble members, but only through the variance given by a large number ensembles

  19. Diagnosing forecast model errors with a perturbed physics ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mulholland, David; Haines, Keith; Sparrow, Sarah

    2016-04-01

    Perturbed physics ensembles are routinely used to analyse long-timescale climate model behaviour, but have less often been used to study model processes on shorter timescales. We present a method for diagnosing the sources of error in an initialised forecast model by using information from an ensemble of members with known perturbations to model physical parameters. We combine a large perturbed physics ensemble with a set of initialised forecasts to deduce possible process errors present in the standard HadCM3 model, which cause the model to drift from the truth in the early stages of the forecast. It is shown that, even on the sub-seasonal timescale, forecast drifts can be linked to perturbations in individual physical parameters, and that the parameters which exert most influence on forecast drifts vary regionally. Equivalent parameter perturbations are recovered from the initialised forecasts, and used to suggest the physical processes that are most critical to controlling model drifts on a regional basis. It is suggested that this method could be used to improve forecast skill, by reducing model drift through regional tuning of parameter values and targeted parameterisation refinement.

  20. Accounting for three sources of uncertainty in ensemble hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiboult, Antoine; Anctil, François; Boucher, Marie-Amélie

    2016-05-01

    Seeking more accuracy and reliability, the hydrometeorological community has developed several tools to decipher the different sources of uncertainty in relevant modeling processes. Among them, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), multimodel approaches and meteorological ensemble forecasting proved to have the capability to improve upon deterministic hydrological forecast. This study aims to untangle the sources of uncertainty by studying the combination of these tools and assessing their respective contribution to the overall forecast quality. Each of these components is able to capture a certain aspect of the total uncertainty and improve the forecast at different stages in the forecasting process by using different means. Their combination outperforms any of the tools used solely. The EnKF is shown to contribute largely to the ensemble accuracy and dispersion, indicating that the initial conditions uncertainty is dominant. However, it fails to maintain the required dispersion throughout the entire forecast horizon and needs to be supported by a multimodel approach to take into account structural uncertainty. Moreover, the multimodel approach contributes to improving the general forecasting performance and prevents this performance from falling into the model selection pitfall since models differ strongly in their ability. Finally, the use of probabilistic meteorological forcing was found to contribute mostly to long lead time reliability. Particular attention needs to be paid to the combination of the tools, especially in the EnKF tuning to avoid overlapping in error deciphering.

  1. Upper Colorado River and Great Basin Streamflow and Snowpack Forecasting using Pacific Oceanic-Atmospheric Variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aziz, O. A.; Tootle, G. A.; Moser, C.; Piechota, T. C.; Lamb, K. W.; Kao, S.

    2011-12-01

    Water managers in western U.S., including areas such as the State of Utah, are challenged with managing scarce resources and thus, rely heavily on forecasts to allocate and meet various water demands. The need for improved streamflow and snowpack forecast models in the Upper Colorado River and Great Basin is of the utmost importance. In this research, the use of oceanic and climatic variables as predictors to improve the long lead-time (three to nine months) forecast of streamflow and snowpack was investigated. Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis was used to identify a region of Pacific Ocean SSTs and a region of 500 mbar geopotential height (Z500) that were teleconnected with streamflow (and snowpack) in Upper Colorado River and Great Basin headwaters. The resulting Pacific Ocean SSTs and Z500 regions were used to create indices that were then used as predictors in a non-parametric forecasting model. The majority of forecasts resulted in positive statistical skill, which indicates an improvement over the climatology or no-skill forecast (i.e., ranking of events using the Weibull distribution). The results indicated that derived indices from Pacific Ocean SSTs were better suited for long lead-time (six to nine month) forecasts of streamflow (and snowpack) while the derived indices from Z500 improved short-lead time (3 month) forecasts. In all, the results of the forecast model indicated that incorporating Pacific oceanic-atmospheric climatic variability in forecast models can lead to improved forecasts for both streamflow and snowpack. This method will be applied and tested at several selected hydropower projects in the study area, and some preliminary results will be shown.

  2. Probabilistic regional wind power forecasts based on calibrated Numerical Weather Forecast ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Späth, Stephan; von Bremen, Lueder; Junk, Constantin; Heinemann, Detlev

    2014-05-01

    With increasing shares of installed wind power in Germany, accurate forecasts of wind speed and power get increasingly important for the grid integration of Renewable Energies. Applications like grid management and trading also benefit from uncertainty information. This uncertainty information can be provided by ensemble forecasts. These forecasts often exhibit systematic errors such as biases and spread deficiencies. The errors can be reduced by statistical post-processing. We use forecast data from the regional Numerical Weather Prediction model COSMO-DE EPS as input to regional wind power forecasts. In order to enhance the power forecast, we first calibrate the wind speed forecasts against the model analysis, so some of the model's systematic errors can be removed. Wind measurements at every grid point are usually not available and as we want to conduct grid zone forecasts, the model analysis is the best target for calibration. We use forecasts from the COSMO-DE EPS, a high-resolution ensemble prediction system with 20 forecast members. The model covers the region of Germany and surroundings with a vertical resolution of 50 model levels and a horizontal resolution of 0.025 degrees (approximately 2.8 km). The forecast range is 21 hours with model output available on an hourly basis. Thus, we use it for shortest-term wind power forecasts. The COSMO-DE EPS was originally designed with a focus on forecasts of convective precipitation. The COSMO-DE EPS wind speed forecasts at hub height were post-processed by nonhomogenous Gaussian regression (NGR; Thorarinsdottir and Gneiting, 2010), a calibration method that fits a truncated normal distribution to the ensemble wind speed forecasts. As calibration target, the model analysis was used. The calibration is able to remove some deficits of the COSMO-DE EPS. In contrast to the raw ensemble members, the calibrated ensemble members do not show anymore the strong correlations with each other and the spread-skill relationship

  3. Integration of Snow Data from Remote Sensing into Operational Streamflow Forecasting in the Western United States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bender, S.; Painter, T. H.; Miller, W. P.; Andreadis, K.

    2014-12-01

    Managers of water resources depend on snowmelt-driven runoff for multiple purposes including water supply, irrigation, attainment of environmental goals, and power generation. Emergency managers track flood potential, particularly in years with above-normal snow conditions. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) of the National Weather Service issues operational streamflow forecasts in the western United States. Runoff during the critical April through July period is predominantly driven by snowmelt; therefore, the CBRFC and users of its forecasts consider snow observations to be highly valuable. In CBRFC's area of responsibility, the density of stations within gauge-based observation networks is not ideal. Snowpack estimates from satellite-borne instruments may aid in filling data gaps where information from point networks is unavailable. CBRFC has partnered with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) under funding from NASA to incorporate remotely-sensed snow data from NASA's MODIS instrument into CBRFC forecasts. The partnership will enter its third year in 2015 and demonstrates an invaluable collaboration between operational and research scientists. Research indicates that streamflow prediction errors could be reduced through use of remotely-sensed snow data. In the first two years of collaboration, CBRFC and JPL increased forecaster awareness of snow conditions via the MODIS datasets, which subsequently increased forecaster confidence in manual modifications to snowpack simulations. Indication of the presence or lack of snow by MODIS assisted CBRFC forecasters in determining the cause of divergence between modeled and gauged streamflow. Indication of albedo conditions at the snow surface provided supporting information about the potential for accelerated snowmelt rates. CBRFC and JPL also continued retrospective analysis of relationships between the remotely-sensed snow data and streamflow patterns. Utilization of remotely-sensed snow data is an

  4. Ensemble stream flow predictions, a way towards better hydrological forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edlund, C.

    2009-04-01

    The hydrological forecasting division at SMHI has been using hydrological EPS and hydrological probabilities forecasts operationally since some years ago. The inputs to the hydrological model HBV are the EPS forecasts from ECMWF. From the ensemble, non-exceedance probabilities are estimated and final correction of the ensemble spread, based on evaluation is done. Ensemble stream flow predictions are done for about 80 indicator basins in Sweden, where there is a real-time discharge gauge. The EPS runs are updated daily against the latest observed discharge. Flood probability maps for exceeding a certain threshold, i.e. a certain warning level, are produced automatically once a day. The flood probabilistic forecasts are based on a HBV- model application, (called HBV-Sv, HBV Sweden) that covers the whole country and consist of 1001 subbasins with an average size between 200 and 700 km2. Probabilities computations for exceeding a certain warning level are made for each one of these 1001 subbasins. Statistical flood levels have been calculated for each river sub-basin. Hydrological probability forecasts should be seen as an early warning product that can give better support in decision making to end-users communities, for instance Civil Protections Offices and County Administrative Boards, within flood risk management. The main limitations with probability forecasts are: on one hand, difficulties to catch small-scale rain (mainly due to resolution of meteorological models); on the other hand, the hydrological model can't be updated against observations in all subbasins. The benefits of working with probabilities consist, first of all, of a new approach when working with flood risk management and scenarios. A probability forecast can give an early indication for Civil Protection that "something is going to happen" and to gain time in preparing aid operations. The ensemble stream flow prediction at SMHI is integrated with the national forecasting system and the products

  5. Probabilistic aspects of meteorological and ozone regional ensemble forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Monache, L D; Hacker, J; Zhou, Y; Deng, X; Stull, R

    2006-03-20

    This study investigates whether probabilistic ozone forecasts from an ensemble can be made with skill; i.e., high verification resolution and reliability. Twenty-eight ozone forecasts were generated over the Lower Fraser Valley, British Columbia, Canada, for the 5-day period 11-15 August 2004, and compared with 1-hour averaged measurements of ozone concentrations at five stations. The forecasts were obtained by driving the CMAQ model with four meteorological forecasts and seven emission scenarios: a control run, {+-} 50% NO{sub x}, {+-} 50% VOC, and {+-} 50% NO{sub x} combined with VOC. Probabilistic forecast quality is verified using relative operating characteristic curves, Talagrand diagrams, and a new reliability index. Results show that both meteorology and emission perturbations are needed to have a skillful probabilistic forecast system--the meteorology perturbation is important to capture the ozone temporal and spatial distribution, and the emission perturbation is needed to span the range of ozone-concentration magnitudes. Emission perturbations are more important than meteorology perturbations for capturing the likelihood of high ozone concentrations. Perturbations involving NO{sub x} resulted in a more skillful probabilistic forecast for the episode analyzed, and therefore the 50% perturbation values appears to span much of the emission uncertainty for this case. All of the ensembles analyzed show a high ozone concentration bias in the Talagrand diagrams, even when the biases from the unperturbed emissions forecasts are removed from all ensemble members. This result indicates nonlinearity in the ensemble, which arises from both ozone chemistry and its interaction with input from particular meteorological models.

  6. Combined use of SOM-classification and Feed-Forward Networks for multinetwork streamflow forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toth, E.

    2009-04-01

    The contribution presents the results of a modular approach for real-time streamflow forecasting, that applies different rainfall-runoff models, on the basis of the hydro-meteorological situation characterising each forecast instant. Modular neural networks or multi-network modelling for streamflow forecasting have been successfully applied in the recent years (e.g. Abrahart and See, 2000; Corzo and Solomatine, 2007; Parasuraman and Elshorbagy 2007). The hydrological and meteorological conditions of the watershed in the instant in which the forecast is issued determine, in fact, which hydrological processes will be dominant in the following period: the future evolution of the streamflow values is then simulated with a rainfall-runoff model that is specific for each forecast instant, parameterised on the basis of the evolution of the similar situations observed in the past. In the present work, the hydro-meteorological conditions are classified with a clustering technique based on unsupervised artificial neural networks, namely self-organisation maps (SOMs) or Kohonen networks. Following the SOM classification, the streamflow forecasts for an Italian mid-sized mountain watershed are issued by specific multilayer feed-forward artificial neural network (FFN). The results confirm that an adequate distinction of the hydro-meteorological conditions characterising the basin at the forecast instant, thus including additional knowledge on the forthcoming hydrological processes, may considerably improve the rainfall-runoff modelling performance.

  7. Multimodel Ensembling in Seasonal Climate Forecasting at IRI.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barnston, Anthony G.; Mason, Simon J.; Goddard, Lisa; Dewitt, David G.; Zebiak, Stephen E.

    2003-12-01

    The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate Prediction seasonal forecast system is based largely on the predictions of ensembles of several atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by two versions of an SST prediction—one consisting of persisted SST anomalies from the current observations and one of evolving SST anomalies as predicted by a set of dynamical and statistical SST prediction models. Recently, an objective multimodel ensembling procedure has replaced a more laborious and subjective weighting of the predictions of the several AGCMs. Here the skills of the multimodel predictions produced retrospectively over the first 4 years of IRI forecasts are examined and compared with the skills of the more subjectively derived forecasts actually issued. The multimodel ensemble predictions are generally found to be an acceptable replacement, although the precipitation forecasts do benefit from inclusion of empirical forecast tools. Planned pattern-level model output statistics (MOS) corrections for systematic biases in the AGCM forecasts may render them more sufficient in their own right.

  8. Evaluation of annual, global seismicity forecasts, including ensemble models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taroni, Matteo; Zechar, Jeremy; Marzocchi, Warner

    2013-04-01

    In 2009, the Collaboratory for the Study of the Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) initiated a prototype global earthquake forecast experiment. Three models participated in this experiment for 2009, 2010 and 2011—each model forecast the number of earthquakes above magnitude 6 in 1x1 degree cells that span the globe. Here we use likelihood-based metrics to evaluate the consistency of the forecasts with the observed seismicity. We compare model performance with statistical tests and a new method based on the peer-to-peer gambling score. The results of the comparisons are used to build ensemble models that are a weighted combination of the individual models. Notably, in these experiments the ensemble model always performs significantly better than the single best-performing model. Our results indicate the following: i) time-varying forecasts, if not updated after each major shock, may not provide significant advantages with respect to time-invariant models in 1-year forecast experiments; ii) the spatial distribution seems to be the most important feature to characterize the different forecasting performances of the models; iii) the interpretation of consistency tests may be misleading because some good models may be rejected while trivial models may pass consistency tests; iv) a proper ensemble modeling seems to be a valuable procedure to get the best performing model for practical purposes.

  9. Climatic fluctuations and forecasting of streamflow in the lower Colorado River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thomas, B.E.

    2007-01-01

    Water-resource managers need to forecast streamflow in the Lower Colorado River Basin to plan for water-resource projects and to operate reservoirs for water supply. Statistical forecasts of streamflow based on historical records of streamflow can be useful, but statistical assumptions, such as stationarity of flows, need to be evaluated. This study evaluated the relation between climatic fluctuations and stationarity and developed regression equations to forecast streamflow by using climatic fluctuations as explanatory variables. Climatic fluctuations were represented by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Historical streamflow within the 25- to 30-year positive or negative phases of AMO or PDO was generally stationary. Monotonic trends in annual mean flows were tested at the 21 sites evaluated in this study; 76% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of AMO and 86% of the sites had no significant trends within phases of PDO. As climatic phases shifted in signs, however, many sites had nonstationary flows; 67% of the sites had significant changes in annual mean flow as AMO shifted in signs. The regression equations developed in this study to forecast streamflow incorporate these shifts in climate and streamflow, thus that source of nonstationarity is accounted for. The R 2 value of regression equations that forecast individual years of annual flow for the central part of the study area ranged from 0.28 to 0.49 and averaged 0.39. AMO was the most significant variable, and a combination of indices from both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans explained much more variation in flows than only the Pacific Ocean indices. The average R2 value for equations with PDO and SOI was 0.15. ?? 2007 American Water Resources Association.

  10. Daily streamflow forecasting by machine learning methods with weather and climate inputs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rasouli, Kabir; Hsieh, William W.; Cannon, Alex J.

    2012-01-01

    SummaryWeather forecast data generated by the NOAA Global Forecasting System (GFS) model, climate indices, and local meteo-hydrologic observations were used to forecast daily streamflows for a small watershed in British Columbia, Canada, at lead times of 1-7 days. Three machine learning methods - Bayesian neural network (BNN), support vector regression (SVR) and Gaussian process (GP) - were used and compared with multiple linear regression (MLR). The nonlinear models generally outperformed MLR, and BNN tended to slightly outperform the other nonlinear models. Among various combinations of predictors, local observations plus the GFS output were generally best at shorter lead times, while local observations plus climate indices were best at longer lead times. The climate indices selected include the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region, the Pacific-North American teleconnection (PNA), the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the binary forecasts for extreme (high) streamflow events, the best predictors to use were the local observations plus GFS output. Interestingly, climate indices contribute to daily streamflow forecast scores during longer lead times of 5-7 days, but not to forecast scores for extreme streamflow events for all lead times studied (1-7 days).

  11. Combining Observations with a Distributed Hydrological Model for Imporved Streamflow Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Small, S.

    2015-12-01

    The Iowa Flood Center operates a real-time flood forecasting system for the state of Iowa based upon a distributed hydrological model. This model partitions the landscape into individual control volumes called hillslopes, which are determined from a 90 meter DEM. In addition to the results of this hydrological model, streamflow observations are available at more than 300 locations, including measurements from USGS operated streamflow gauges and Iowa Flood Center operated bridge sensors. Augmenting the model outputs with available observations can improve forecast accuracy. Combining these sources of information requires computing sensitivities of model states at each location to upstream states. These sensitivities greatly increase the number of computations and require additional computational power to maintain real-time usability.This presentation documents developments with a real-time distributed streamflow forecasting model with assimilated data. The forecasting system applied to the State of Iowa (about 140,000 square kilometers) will be detailed. A comparison of streamflow forecasts with model states influenced by observations to forecasts without influence by observations is given to show the effectiveness of our methods.

  12. Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River Basin using Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Hao, Z.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2013-09-01

    A Hierarchal Bayesian model for forecasting regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead using exogenous climate variables for East Central China is presented. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multilevel structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multivariate normal distribution results in partial-pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include Receiver Operating Characteristic, Reduction of Error, Coefficient of Efficiency, Rank Probability Skill Scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast regional summer rainfall and streamflow season-ahead offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

  13. Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River basin using hierarchical Bayesian modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, X.; Hao, Z.; Devineni, N.; Lall, U.

    2014-04-01

    A Hierarchal Bayesian model is presented for one season-ahead forecasts of summer rainfall and streamflow using exogenous climate variables for east central China. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multi-level structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multi-variate normal distribution resulting in partial pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include receiver operating characteristic, reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency, rank probability skill scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast season-ahead regional summer rainfall and streamflow offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies.

  14. Hydrologic ensemble prediction experiment focuses on reliable forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franz, Kristie; Ajami, Newsha; Schaake, John; Buizza, Roberto

    The Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX), an effort involving meteorological and hydrological scientists from research, operational, and user communities around the globe, is building a research project focused on advancing probabilistic hydrologic forecasting.HEPEX was launched in March 2004 at a meeting hosted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), in Reading, United Kingdom http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2004/HEPEX/). The goal of HEPEX is “to bring the international hydrological and meteorological communities together to demonstrate how to produce reliable hydrological ensemble forecasts that can be used with confidence by the emergency management and water resources sectors to make decisions that have important consequences for the economy, public health, and safety.”

  15. Bayesian Processor of Ensemble for Precipitation Forecasting: A Development Plan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Toth, Z.; Krzysztofowicz, R.

    2006-05-01

    The Bayesian Processor of Ensemble (BPE) is a new, theoretically-based technique for probabilistic forecasting of weather variates. It is a generalization of the Bayesian Processor of Output (BPO) developed by Krzysztofowicz and Maranzano for processing single values of multiple predictors into a posterior distribution function of a predictand. The BPE processes an ensemble of a predictand generated by multiple integrations of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, and optimally fuses the ensemble with climatic data in order to quantify uncertainty about the predictand. As is well known, Bayes theorem provides the optimal theoretical framework for fusing information from different sources and for obtaining the posterior distribution function of a predictand. Using a family of such distribution functions, a given raw ensemble can be mapped into a posterior ensemble, which is well calibrated, has maximum informativeness, and preserves the spatio-temporal and cross-variate dependence structure of the NWP output fields. The challenge is to develop and test the BPE suitable for operational forecasting. This talk will present the basic design components of the BPE, along with a discussion of the climatic and training data to be used in its potential application at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The technique will be tested first on quasi-normally distributed variates and next on precipitation variates. For reasons of economy, the BPE will be applied on the relatively coarse resolution grid corresponding to the ensemble output, and then the posterior ensemble will be downscaled to finer grids such as that of the National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD).

  16. Regionalization of post-processed ensemble runoff forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2016-05-01

    For many years, meteorological models have been run with perturbated initial conditions or parameters to produce ensemble forecasts that are used as a proxy of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, the ensembles are usually both biased (the mean is systematically too high or too low, compared with the observed weather), and has dispersion errors (the ensemble variance indicates a too low or too high confidence in the forecast, compared with the observed weather). The ensembles are therefore commonly post-processed to correct for these shortcomings. Here we look at one of these techniques, referred to as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). Originally, the post-processing parameters were identified as a fixed set of parameters for a region. The application of our work is the European Flood Awareness System (http://www.efas.eu), where a distributed model is run with meteorological ensembles as input. We are therefore dealing with a considerably larger data set than previous analyses. We also want to regionalize the parameters themselves for other locations than the calibration gauges. The post-processing parameters are therefore estimated for each calibration station, but with a spatial penalty for deviations from neighbouring stations, depending on the expected semivariance between the calibration catchment and these stations. The estimated post-processed parameters can then be used for regionalization of the postprocessing parameters also for uncalibrated locations using top-kriging in the rtop-package (Skøien et al., 2006, 2014). We will show results from cross-validation of the methodology and although our interest is mainly in identifying exceedance probabilities for certain return levels, we will also show how the rtop package can be used for creating a set of post-processed ensembles through simulations.

  17. Identifying needs for streamflow forecasting in the Incomati basin, Southern Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sunday, Robert; Werner, Micha; Masih, Ilyas; van der Zaag, Pieter

    2013-04-01

    Despite being widely recognised as an efficient tool in the operational management of water resources, rainfall and streamflow forecasts are currently not utilised in water management practice in the Incomati Basin in Southern Africa. Although, there have been initiatives for forecasting streamflow in the Sabie and Crocodile sub-basins, the outputs of these have found little use because of scepticism on the accuracy and reliability of the information, or the relevance of the information provided to the needs of the water managers. The process of improving these forecasts is underway, but as yet the actual needs of the forecasts are unclear and scope of the ongoing initiatives remains very limited. In this study questionnaires and focused group interviews were used to establish the need, potential use, benefit and required accuracy of rainfall and streamflow forecasts in the Incomati Basin. Thirty five interviews were conducted with professionals engaged in water sector and detailed discussions were held with water institutions, including the Inkomati Catchment Management Agency (ICMA), Komati Basin Water Authority (KOBWA), South African Weather Service (SAWS), water managers, dam operators, water experts, farmers and other water users in the Basin. Survey results show that about 97% of the respondents receive weather forecasts. In contrast to expectations, only 5% have access to the streamflow forecast. In the weather forecast, the most important variables were considered to be rainfall and temperature at daily and weekly time scales. Moreover, forecasts of global climatic indices such as El Niño or La Niña were neither received nor demanded. There was limited demand and/or awareness of flood and drought forecasts including the information on their linkages with global climatic indices. While the majority of respondents indicate the need and indeed use the weather forecast, the provision, communication and interpretation were in general found to be with too

  18. Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Anctil, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Perrin, Charles

    2010-05-01

    An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single estimate of the flow, for which no distribution is obtainable (the deterministic forecast). In the past years, efforts towards the development of probabilistic hydrological prediction systems were made with the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The additional information provided by the different available Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) was evaluated in a hydrological context on various case studies (see the review by Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). For example, the European ECMWF-EPS was explored in case studies by Roulin et al. (2005), Bartholmes et al. (2005), Jaun et al. (2008), and Renner et al. (2009). The Canadian EC-EPS was also evaluated by Velázquez et al. (2009). Most of these case studies investigate the ensemble predictions of a given hydrological model, set up over a limited number of catchments. Uncertainty from weather predictions is assessed through the use of meteorological ensembles. However, uncertainty from the tested hydrological model and statistical robustness of the forecasting system when coping with different hydro-meteorological conditions are less frequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance and the reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models applied to a large number of catchments in an operational ensemble forecasting context. Some of these models were evaluated in a previous study (Perrin et al. 2001) for their ability to simulate streamflow. Results demonstrated that very simple models can achieve a level of performance almost as high (sometimes higher) as models with more parameters. In the present study, we focus on the ability of the hydrological models to

  19. Decision Support on the Sediments Flushing of Aimorés Dam Using Medium-Range Ensemble Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mainardi Fan, Fernando; Schwanenberg, Dirk; Collischonn, Walter; Assis dos Reis, Alberto; Alvarado Montero, Rodolfo; Alencar Siqueira, Vinicius

    2015-04-01

    In the present study we investigate the use of medium-range streamflow forecasts in the Doce River basin (Brazil), at the reservoir of Aimorés Hydro Power Plant (HPP). During daily operations this reservoir acts as a "trap" to the sediments that originate from the upstream basin of the Doce River. This motivates a cleaning process called "pass through" to periodically remove the sediments from the reservoir. The "pass through" or "sediments flushing" process consists of a decrease of the reservoir's water level to a certain flushing level when a determined reservoir inflow threshold is forecasted. Then, the water in the approaching inflow is used to flush the sediments from the reservoir through the spillway and to recover the original reservoir storage. To be triggered, the sediments flushing operation requires an inflow larger than 3000m³/s in a forecast horizon of 7 days. This lead-time of 7 days is far beyond the basin's concentration time (around 2 days), meaning that the forecasts for the pass through procedure highly depends on Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) models that generate Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF). This dependency creates an environment with a high amount of uncertainty to the operator. To support the decision making at Aimorés HPP we developed a fully operational hydrological forecasting system to the basin. The system is capable of generating ensemble streamflow forecasts scenarios when driven by QPF data from meteorological Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS). This approach allows accounting for uncertainties in the NWP at a decision making level. This system is starting to be used operationally by CEMIG and is the one shown in the present study, including a hindcasting analysis to assess the performance of the system for the specific flushing problem. The QPF data used in the hindcasting study was derived from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) database. Among all EPS available on TIGGE, three were

  20. Ensemble stream flow predictions using the ECMWF forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiczko, Adam; Romanowicz, Renata; Osuch, Marzena; Pappenberger, Florian; Karamuz, Emilia

    2015-04-01

    Floods and low flows in rivers are seasonal phenomena that can cause several problems to society. To anticipate high and low flow events, flow forecasts are crucial. They are of particular importance in mountainous catchments, where the lead time of forecasts is usually short. In order to prolong the forecast lead-time, numerical weather predictions (NWPs) are used as a hydrological model driving force. The forecasted flow is commonly given as one value, even though it is uncertain. There is an increasing interest in accounting for the uncertainty in flood early warning and decision support systems. When NWP are given in the form of ensembles, such as the ECMWF forecasts, the uncertainty of these forecasts can be accounted for. Apart from the forecast uncertainty the uncertainty related to the hydrological model used also plays an important role in the uncertainty of the final flow prediction. The aim of this study is the development of a stream flow prediction system for the Biała Tarnowska, a mountainous catchment in the south of Poland. We apply two different hydrological models. One is a conceptual HBV model for rainfall-flow predictions, applied within a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework, the second is a data-based DBM model, adjusted for Polish conditions by adding the Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) and snow-melt modules. Both models provide the uncertainty of the predictions, but the DBM approach is much more numerically efficient, therefore more suitable for the real-time forecasting.. The ECMWF forecasts require bias reduction in order to correspond to observations. Therefore we applied Quantile Mapping with and without seasonal adjustment for bias correction. Up to seven-days ahead forecast skills are compared using the Relative Operation Characteristic (ROC) graphs, for the flood warning and flood alarm flow value thresholds. The ECMWF forecasts are obtained from the project TIGGE (http

  1. The Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting: Global and CONUS Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flamig, Z.; Vergara, H. J.; Clark, R. A.; Gourley, J. J.; Kirstetter, P. E.; Hong, Y.

    2015-12-01

    The Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) is a distributed hydrologic modeling framework combining water balance components such as the Variable Infiltration Curve (VIC) and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) with kinematic wave channel routing. The Snow-17 snow pack model is included as an optional component in EF5 for basins where snow impacts are important. EF5 also contains the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) parameter estimation scheme for model calibration. EF5 is made to be user friendly and as such training has been developed into a weeklong course. This course has been tested in modeling workshops held in Namibia and Mexico. EF5 has also been applied to specialized applications including the Flooded Locations and Simulated Hydrographs (FLASH) project. FLASH aims to provide flash flood monitoring and forecasting over the CONUS using Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor precipitation forcing. Using the extensive field measurements database from the 10,000 USGS measurement locations across the CONUS, parameters were developed for the kinematic wave routing in FLASH. This presentation will highlight FLASH performance over the CONUS on basins less than 1,000 km2 and discuss the development of simulated streamflow climatology over the CONUS for data mining applications. A global application of EF5 has also been developed using satellite based precipitation measurements combined with numerical weather prediction forecasts to produce flood and impact forecasts. The performance of this global system will be assessed and future plans detailed.

  2. Ensemble Ionospheric Total Electron Content Forecasting during Storms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chartier, A.; Mitchell, C. N.; Lu, G.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hoar, T. J.; Bust, G. S.; Matsuo, T.

    2014-12-01

    Earth's ionosphere presents a threat to human activities such as satellite positioning and timing, radio communications and surveillance. Nowcasts and forecasts of the ionosphere could help mitigate these damaging effects. Recent advances in the field of ionospheric imaging, as well as new storm-time ionospheric forecasting results are presented here. The approach combines globally distributed GPS Total Electron Content (TEC) measurements with an ensemble of coupled thermosphere-ionosphere models in order to produce short-term forecasts during a storm. One-hour forecast accuracy is much better than a climatological model run. Using this ensemble approach, it is possible to infer the neutral O/N2 ratio from TEC measurements so that subsequent TEC forecasts are improved. A review of ionospheric physics and data assimilation will also be given. The term data assimilation refers to a group of techniques designed to estimate atmospheric or oceanic states. In practice, data assimilation techniques seek to improve modeled estimates of the atmospheric state by incorporating observations. The relationship between data assimilation and forecasting is explored with reference to the physics of the thermosphere-ionosphere system. The work presented here uses the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), which is an ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation framework. This is combined with a version of the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) that has been modified to accept more detailed solar and geomagnetic driver specifications. Future directions of work include the inference of Solar and geomagnetic drivers from the data assimilation process as well as coupling with lower-atmospheric models.

  3. Verification of Advances in a Coupled Snow-runoff Modeling Framework for Operational Streamflow Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

    2011-12-01

    The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) River Forecast Centers (RFCs) issue hydrologic forecasts related to flood events, reservoir operations for water supply, streamflow regulation, and recreation on the nation's streams and rivers. The RFCs use the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) for streamflow forecasting which relies on a coupled snow model (i.e. SNOW17) and rainfall-runoff model (i.e. SAC-SMA) in snow-dominated regions of the US. Errors arise in various steps of the forecasting system from input data, model structure, model parameters, and initial states. The goal of the current study is to undertake verification of potential improvements in the SNOW17-SAC-SMA modeling framework developed for operational streamflow forecasts. We undertake verification for a range of parameters sets (i.e. RFC, DREAM (Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis)) as well as a data assimilation (DA) framework developed for the coupled models. Verification is also undertaken for various initial conditions to observe the influence of variability in initial conditions on the forecast. The study basin is the North Fork America River Basin (NFARB) located on the western side of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in northern California. Hindcasts are verified using both deterministic (i.e. Nash Sutcliffe efficiency, root mean square error, and joint distribution) and probabilistic (i.e. reliability diagram, discrimination diagram, containing ratio, and Quantile plots) statistics. Our presentation includes comparison of the performance of different optimized parameters and the DA framework as well as assessment of the impact associated with the initial conditions used for streamflow forecasts for the NFARB.

  4. Medium Range Ensembles Flood Forecasts for Community Level Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fakhruddin, S.; Kawasaki, A.; Babel, M. S.; AIT

    2013-05-01

    Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, there has been a major advancement in medium range and seasonal forecasting. These could provide a great opportunity to improve early warning systems and advisories for early action for strategic and long term planning. This could result in increasing emphasis on proactive rather than reactive management of adverse consequences of flood events. This can be also very helpful for the agricultural sector by providing a diversity of options to farmers (e.g. changing cropping pattern, planting timing, etc.). An experimental medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh which provides 51 set of discharge ensembles forecasts of one to ten days with significant persistence and high certainty. This could help communities (i.e. farmer) for gain/lost estimation as well as crop savings. This paper describe the application of ensembles probabilistic flood forecast at the community level for differential decision making focused on agriculture. The framework allows users to interactively specify the objectives and criteria that are germane to a particular situation, and obtain the management options that are possible, and the exogenous influences that should be taken into account before planning and decision making. risk and vulnerability assessment was conducted through community consultation. The forecast lead time requirement, users' needs, impact and management options for crops, livestock and fisheries sectors were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and questionnaire survey.

  5. Translating Ensemble Weather Forecasts into Probabilistic User-Relevant Information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, Matthias; Sharman, Robert; Hopson, Thomas; Liu, Yubao; Chapman, Michael

    2010-05-01

    Weather-related decisions increasingly rely on probabilistic information as a means of assessing the risk of one potential outcome over another. Ensemble forecasting presents one of the key approaches trying to grasp the uncertainty of weather forecasting. Moreover, in the future decision makers will rely on tools that fully integrate weather information into the decision making process. Through these decision support tools, weather information will be translated into impact information. This presentation will highlight the translation of gridded ensemble weather forecasts into probabilistic user-relevant information. Examples will be discussed that relate to the management of air traffic, noise and pollution dispersion, missile trajectory prediction, water resources and flooding, wind energy production, and road maintenance. The primary take-home message from these examples will be that weather forecasts have to be tailored with a specific user perspective in mind rather than a "one fits all" approach, where a standard forecast product gets thrown over the fence and the user has to figure out what to do with it.

  6. Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasts for Flash Flood Warnings at Ungauged Locations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Javelle, Pierre; Organde, Didier; Ramos, Maria-Helena

    2013-04-01

    Development of operational flash flood warning systems is one of the challenges in operational hydrology: flash floods are devastating but difficult to monitor and predict due to their nature. To provide flash flood warnings for ungauged basins, Météo-France and Irstea (formally Cemagref) have developed a discharge-threshold flood warning system called AIGA, which combines radar-gauge rainfall grids with a simplified distributed rainfall-runoff model run every 15 minutes at a 1-km² resolution. Operational since 2005 in the Southern part of France, the AIGA system produces, every 15 minutes, a map of the river network with a color chart indicating the range of the estimated return period of the ongoing flood event. To increase forecast lead time and quantify the forcing input uncertainty, the rainfall-runoff distributed model ingests the 11 precipitation ensemble members from the PEARP ensemble prediction system of Météo-France. Performance of the experimental probabilistic precipitation and flow forecasts is evaluated from a variety of ensemble verification metrics (e.g., Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score, Relative Operating Characteristic score) for different French basins. We also discuss planned enhancements and challenges to assess other sources of hydrologic uncertainty and effectively communicate the uncertainty information to forecasters for better risk-based decision making.

  7. An Application of Advanced Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Methods to Assess Potential Impacts of the 2015 - 2016 ENSO Event over the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, W. P.; Lamb, K. W.; Piechota, T. C.; Lakshmi, V.; Santos, N. I.; Tootle, G. A.; Kalra, A.; Fayne, J.

    2015-12-01

    Water resource managers throughout the Western United States have struggled with persistent and severe drought since the early 2000s. In the Colorado River Basin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) provides forecasts of water supply conditions to resource managers throughout the basin using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methods that are largely driven by historical observations of temperature and precipitation. Currently, the CBRFC does not have a way to incorporate information from climatic teleconnections such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). ENSO describes warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that typically correlate with cool and wet winter precipitation events in California and the Lower Colorado River Basin during an El Niño event. Past research indicates the potential to identify analog ENSO events to evaluate the impact to reservoir storage in the Colorado River Basin. Current forecasts indicate the potential for one of the strongest El Niño events on record this winter. In this study, information regarding the upcoming ENSO event is used to inform water supply forecasts over the Upper Colorado River Basin. These forecasts are then compared to traditionally derived water supply forecast in an attempt to evaluate the possible impact of the El Niño event to water supply over the Colorado River Basin.

  8. Improved forecasting of thermospheric densities using multi-model ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elvidge, Sean; Godinez, Humberto C.; Angling, Matthew J.

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. The MME, with its reduced uncertainties, can then be used as the initial conditions in a physics-based thermosphere model for forecasting. This should increase the forecast skill since a reduction in the errors of the initial conditions of a model generally increases model skill. In this paper the Thermosphere-Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Exosphere 2000 (NRLMSISE-00), and Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) have been used to construct the MME. As well as comparisons between the MMEs and the "standard" runs of the model, the MME densities have been propagated forward in time using the TIE-GCM. It is shown that thermospheric forecasts of up to 6 h, using the MME, have a reduction in the root mean square error of greater than 60 %. The paper also highlights differences in model performance between times of solar minimum and maximum.

  9. Post-processing of medium-range ensemble hydrological forecasting: impact of forcing, initial conditions and model errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roulin, Emmanuel; Vannitsem, Stéphane

    2015-04-01

    The impact of errors in the forcing, errors in the model structure and parameters, and errors in the initial conditions are investigated in a simple hydrological ensemble prediction system. The hydrological model is forced by precipitation forecasts from the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System. The post-processing of the precipitation and/or the streamflow using information from the reforecasts performed by ECMWF are tested. For this purpose, hydrological reforecasts are obtained by forcing the hydrological model with the precipitation from the reforecast data. In the present case study, it is found that the post-processing of the hydrological ensembles with a statistical model fitted on the hydrological reforecasts improves the verification scores better than the use of post-processed precipitation ensembles. In the case of large biases in the precipitation, combining the post-processing of both precipitation and streamflow allows for further improvements. During winter, errors in the initial conditions have a larger impact on the scores than errors in the model structure as designed in the experiments. Errors in the parameter values are largely corrected with the post-processing.

  10. Hydro-meteorological evaluation of downscaled global ensemble rainfall forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaborit, Étienne; Anctil, François; Fortin, Vincent; Pelletier, Geneviève

    2013-04-01

    Ensemble rainfall forecasts are of high interest for decision making, as they provide an explicit and dynamic assessment of the uncertainty in the forecast (Ruiz et al. 2009). However, for hydrological forecasting, their low resolution currently limits their use to large watersheds (Maraun et al. 2010). In order to bridge this gap, various implementations of the statistic-stochastic multi-fractal downscaling technique presented by Perica and Foufoula-Georgiou (1996) were compared, bringing Environment Canada's global ensemble rainfall forecasts from a 100 by 70-km resolution down to 6 by 4-km, while increasing each pixel's rainfall variance and preserving its original mean. For comparison purposes, simpler methods were also implemented such as the bi-linear interpolation, which disaggregates global forecasts without modifying their variance. The downscaled meteorological products were evaluated using different scores and diagrams, from both a meteorological and a hydrological view points. The meteorological evaluation was conducted comparing the forecasted rainfall depths against nine days of observed values taken from Québec City rain gauge database. These 9 days present strong precipitation events occurring during the summer of 2009. For the hydrologic evaluation, the hydrological models SWMM5 and (a modified version of) GR4J were implemented on a small 6 km2 urban catchment located in the Québec City region. Ensemble hydrologic forecasts with a time step of 3 hours were then performed over a 3-months period of the summer of 2010 using the original and downscaled ensemble rainfall forecasts. The most important conclusions of this work are that the overall quality of the forecasts was preserved during the disaggregation procedure and that the disaggregated products using this variance-enhancing method were of similar quality than bi-linear interpolation products. However, variance and dispersion of the different members were, of course, much improved for the

  11. Generation of a Solar Wind Ensemble for Space Weather Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hassan, E.; Morley, S.; Steinberg, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Knowing the upstream solar wind conditions is essential in forecasting the variations in the geomangetic field and the status of the Earth's ionosphere. Most data-driven simulations or data-assimilation codes, used for space weather forecasting, are based on the solar wind measurements at 1 AU, or more specifically at the first Lagrangian orbit (L1), such as observations from the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). However, L1 measurements may not represent the solar wind conditions just outside the magnetosphere. As a result, time-series measurements from L1 by themselves are not adequate to run simulations to derive probabilistic forecasts of the magnetosphere and ionosphere. To obtain confidence levels and uncertainty estimates, a solar wind ensemble data set is desirable. Therefore we used three years of measurements atACE advected using the flat delay method to the Interplanetary Monitoring Platform (IMP8) spacecraft location. Then, we compared both measurements to establish Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) functions for IMP8 measurements based on ACE measurements. In addition, we used a 4-categorization scheme to sort the incoming solar wind into ejecta, coronal-hole-origin, sector-reversal-regions, and streamer-belt-origin categories at both ACE and IMP8. We established the KDE functions for each category and compared with the uncategorized KDE functions. The location of the IMP8 spacecraft allows us to use these KDE functions to generate ensemble of solar wind data close to Earth's magnetopause. The ensemble can then be used to forecast the state of the geomagnetic field and the ionosphere.

  12. Ensemble-based methods for forecasting census in hospital units

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The ability to accurately forecast census counts in hospital departments has considerable implications for hospital resource allocation. In recent years several different methods have been proposed forecasting census counts, however many of these approaches do not use available patient-specific information. Methods In this paper we present an ensemble-based methodology for forecasting the census under a framework that simultaneously incorporates both (i) arrival trends over time and (ii) patient-specific baseline and time-varying information. The proposed model for predicting census has three components, namely: current census count, number of daily arrivals and number of daily departures. To model the number of daily arrivals, we use a seasonality adjusted Poisson Autoregressive (PAR) model where the parameter estimates are obtained via conditional maximum likelihood. The number of daily departures is predicted by modeling the probability of departure from the census using logistic regression models that are adjusted for the amount of time spent in the census and incorporate both patient-specific baseline and time varying patient-specific covariate information. We illustrate our approach using neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) data collected at Women & Infants Hospital, Providence RI, which consists of 1001 consecutive NICU admissions between April 1st 2008 and March 31st 2009. Results Our results demonstrate statistically significant improved prediction accuracy for 3, 5, and 7 day census forecasts and increased precision of our forecasting model compared to a forecasting approach that ignores patient-specific information. Conclusions Forecasting models that utilize patient-specific baseline and time-varying information make the most of data typically available and have the capacity to substantially improve census forecasts. PMID:23721123

  13. An assessment of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) based global drought early warning forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, E. F.; Yuan, X.; Sheffield, J.; Pan, M.; Roundy, J.

    2013-12-01

    One of the key recommendations of the WCRP Global Drought Information System (GDIS) workshop is to develop an experimental real-time global monitoring and prediction system. While great advances has been made in global drought monitoring based on satellite observations and model reanalysis data, global drought forecasting has been stranded in part due to the limited skill both in climate forecast models and global hydrologic predictions. Having been working on drought monitoring and forecasting over USA for more than a decade, the Princeton land surface hydrology group is now developing an experimental global drought early warning system that is based on multiple climate forecast models and a calibrated global hydrologic model. In this presentation, we will test its capability in seasonal forecasting of meteorological, agricultural and hydrologic droughts over global major river basins, using precipitation, soil moisture and streamflow forecasts respectively. Based on the joint probability distribution between observations using Princeton's global drought monitoring system and model hindcasts and real-time forecasts from North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) project, we (i) bias correct the monthly precipitation and temperature forecasts from multiple climate forecast models, (ii) downscale them to a daily time scale, and (iii) use them to drive the calibrated VIC model to produce global drought forecasts at a 1-degree resolution. A parallel run using the ESP forecast method, which is based on resampling historical forcings, is also carried out for comparison. Analysis is being conducted over global major river basins, with multiple drought indices that have different time scales and characteristics. The meteorological drought forecast does not have uncertainty from hydrologic models and can be validated directly against observations - making the validation an 'apples-to-apples' comparison. Preliminary results for the evaluation of meteorological drought onset

  14. An alternate approach to ensemble ENSO forecast spread: Application to the 2014 forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Larson, Sarah M.; Kirtman, Ben P.

    2015-11-01

    Evaluating the 2014 El Niño forecast as a "bust" may be tapping into a bigger issue, namely that forecast "overconfidence" from single-model ensembles could affect the retrospective assessment of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictions. The present study proposes a new approach to quantifying an "expected" spread and uncertainty from noise-driven processes and supplementing these measures with actual ENSO forecasts. Expanding on a previously developed coupled model framework that isolates noise-driven ENSO-like errors, an experimental design is implemented to generate an expected December Niño-3.4 spread from March initial condition sea surface temperature errors that have similar structure to the 2014 and 2015 observed. Results reveal that the 2014 ENSO forecast falls within the expected uncertainty generated by ENSO-independent, forecast-independent, noise-driven errors.

  15. Theoretical basis for operational ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pizzo, V. J.; Koning, C.; Cash, M.; Millward, G.; Biesecker, D. A.; Puga, L.; Codrescu, M.; Odstrcil, D.

    2015-10-01

    We lay out the theoretical underpinnings for the application of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge-Enlil modeling system to ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in an operational environment. In such models, there is no magnetic cloud component, so our results pertain only to CME front properties, such as transit time to Earth. Within this framework, we find no evidence that the propagation is chaotic, and therefore, CME forecasting calls for different tactics than employed for terrestrial weather or hurricane forecasting. We explore a broad range of CME cone inputs and ambient states to flesh out differing CME evolutionary behavior in the various dynamical domains (e.g., large, fast CMEs launched into a slow ambient, and the converse; plus numerous permutations in between). CME propagation in both uniform and highly structured ambient flows is considered to assess how much the solar wind background affects the CME front properties at 1 AU. Graphical and analytic tools pertinent to an ensemble approach are developed to enable uncertainties in forecasting CME impact at Earth to be realistically estimated. We discuss how uncertainties in CME pointing relative to the Sun-Earth line affects the reliability of a forecast and how glancing blows become an issue for CME off-points greater than about the half width of the estimated input CME. While the basic results appear consistent with established impressions of CME behavior, the next step is to use existing records of well-observed CMEs at both Sun and Earth to verify that real events appear to follow the systematic tendencies presented in this study.

  16. Development of Ensemble Model Based Water Demand Forecasting Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; So, Byung-Jin; Kim, Seong-Hyeon; Kim, Byung-Seop

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, Smart Water Grid (SWG) concept has globally emerged over the last decade and also gained significant recognition in South Korea. Especially, there has been growing interest in water demand forecast and optimal pump operation and this has led to various studies regarding energy saving and improvement of water supply reliability. Existing water demand forecasting models are categorized into two groups in view of modeling and predicting their behavior in time series. One is to consider embedded patterns such as seasonality, periodicity and trends, and the other one is an autoregressive model that is using short memory Markovian processes (Emmanuel et al., 2012). The main disadvantage of the abovementioned model is that there is a limit to predictability of water demands of about sub-daily scale because the system is nonlinear. In this regard, this study aims to develop a nonlinear ensemble model for hourly water demand forecasting which allow us to estimate uncertainties across different model classes. The proposed model is consist of two parts. One is a multi-model scheme that is based on combination of independent prediction model. The other one is a cross validation scheme named Bagging approach introduced by Brieman (1996) to derive weighting factors corresponding to individual models. Individual forecasting models that used in this study are linear regression analysis model, polynomial regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines(MARS), SVM(support vector machine). The concepts are demonstrated through application to observed from water plant at several locations in the South Korea. Keywords: water demand, non-linear model, the ensemble forecasting model, uncertainty. Acknowledgements This subject is supported by Korea Ministry of Environment as "Projects for Developing Eco-Innovation Technologies (GT-11-G-02-001-6)

  17. Artificial intelligence based models for stream-flow forecasting: 2000-2015

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yaseen, Zaher Mundher; El-shafie, Ahmed; Jaafar, Othman; Afan, Haitham Abdulmohsin; Sayl, Khamis Naba

    2015-11-01

    The use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has increased since the middle of the 20th century as seen in its application in a wide range of engineering and science problems. The last two decades, for example, has seen a dramatic increase in the development and application of various types of AI approaches for stream-flow forecasting. Generally speaking, AI has exhibited significant progress in forecasting and modeling non-linear hydrological applications and in capturing the noise complexity in the dataset. This paper explores the state-of-the-art application of AI in stream-flow forecasting, focusing on defining the data-driven of AI, the advantages of complementary models, as well as the literature and their possible future application in modeling and forecasting stream-flow. The review also identifies the major challenges and opportunities for prospective research, including, a new scheme for modeling the inflow, a novel method for preprocessing time series frequency based on Fast Orthogonal Search (FOS) techniques, and Swarm Intelligence (SI) as an optimization approach.

  18. Impacts of Forecasted Climate Change on Snowpack, Glacier Recession, and Streamflow in the Nooksack River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murphy, R. D.; Mitchell, R. J.; Bandaragoda, C.; Grah, O. J.

    2015-12-01

    Like many watersheds in the North Cascades Mountain range, streamflow in the Nooksack River is strongly influenced by precipitation and snowmelt in the spring and glacial melt in the warmer summer months. With a maritime climate and a high relief basin with glacial ice (3400 hectares), the streamflow response in the Nooksack is sensitive to increases in temperature, thus forecasting the basins response to future climate is of vital importance for water resources planning purposes. The watershed (2000 km2) in the northwest of Washington, USA, is a valuable freshwater resource for regional municipalities, industry, and agriculture, and provides critical habitat for endangered salmon species. Due to a lack of spatially distributed long-term historical weather observations in the basin for downscaling purposes, we apply publically available statistically derived 1/16 degree gridded surface data along with the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM; Wigmosta et al., 1992) with newly developed coupled dynamic glacier model (Clarke et al., 2015) to simulate hydrologic processes in the Nooksack River basin. We calibrate and validate the DHSVM to observed glacial mass balance and glacial ice extent as well as to observed daily streamflow and SNOTEL data in the Nooksack basin. For the historical period, we model using a gridded meteorological forcing data set (1950-2010; Livneh et al., 2013). We simulate forecasted climate change impacts, including glacial recession on streamflow, using gridded daily statically downscaled data from global climate models of the CMIP5 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios developed using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs method (Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). Simulation results project an increase in winter streamflows due to more rainfall rather than snow, and a decrease in summer flows with a general shift in peak spring flows toward earlier in the spring. Glacier melt contribution to streamflow initially increases

  19. Streamflow forecasts on seasonal and interannual time scales for reservoir management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robertson, A. W.; Lu, M.; Lall, U.

    2014-12-01

    Seasonal climate forecasts are beginning to be complemented by improved forecasting capabilities at both sub-seasonal and interannual annual timescales, with the future prospect of seamless climate forecasts for water system operations. While seasonal predictability is often very limited by physical and modeling constraints, harnessing additional predictable components of the climate system may in some cases substantially increase their usable information content, and provide more flexible forecasts in terms of the kinds of management decisions that can be informed. Here we present an example of combining season and year-ahead streamflow forecasts as input to a multi-use reservoir optimization model, applied to the Bhakra Dam in NW India. Bi-timescale forecasts are made with a seasonal periodic autoregressive (PAR) model with exogenous climate-forecast inputs, together with an annual PAR model fit to observed flows used as a baseline for year-ahead forecasts. Annual net revenue from irrigation and hydropower supplies are calculated with contracts optimized using the reservoir optimization model. With Bhakra Dam inflows deriving from both winter storms/snow melt and the summer monsoon, it is found that net annual revenue is maximized when new contracts are initiated in March and June. We explore various choices of PARX model seasonal predictors based on climate model output and data and show that, with the choice of a good start date, even forecasts with relatively low skill can have value.

  20. Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

    2013-07-01

    Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modelling. In this paper, we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modelling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalisation property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analysed on two real-world case studies - Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia) - representing two different morphoclimatic contexts. The evaluation is performed against other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

  1. Assessing the predictive capability of randomized tree-based ensembles in streamflow modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Galelli, S.; Castelletti, A.

    2013-02-01

    Combining randomization methods with ensemble prediction is emerging as an effective option to balance accuracy and computational efficiency in data-driven modeling. In this paper we investigate the prediction capability of extremely randomized trees (Extra-Trees), in terms of accuracy, explanation ability and computational efficiency, in a streamflow modeling exercise. Extra-Trees are a totally randomized tree-based ensemble method that (i) alleviates the poor generalization property and tendency to overfitting of traditional standalone decision trees (e.g. CART); (ii) is computationally very efficient; and, (iii) allows to infer the relative importance of the input variables, which might help in the ex-post physical interpretation of the model. The Extra-Trees potential is analyzed on two real-world case studies (Marina catchment (Singapore) and Canning River (Western Australia)) representing two different morphoclimatic contexts comparatively with other tree-based methods (CART and M5) and parametric data-driven approaches (ANNs and multiple linear regression). Results show that Extra-Trees perform comparatively well to the best of the benchmarks (i.e. M5) in both the watersheds, while outperforming the other approaches in terms of computational requirement when adopted on large datasets. In addition, the ranking of the input variable provided can be given a physically meaningful interpretation.

  2. Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

    2012-12-01

    Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m

  3. Two-stage seasonal streamflow forecasts to guide water resources decisions and water rights allocation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Block, P. J.; Gonzalez, E.; Bonnafous, L.

    2011-12-01

    Decision-making in water resources is inherently uncertain producing copious risks, ranging from operational (present) to planning (season-ahead) to design/adaptation (decadal) time-scales. These risks include human activity and climate variability/change. As the risks in designing and operating water systems and allocating available supplies vary systematically in time, prospects for predicting and managing such risks become increasingly attractive. Considerable effort has been undertaken to improve seasonal forecast skill and advocate for integration to reduce risk, however only minimal adoption is evident. Impediments are well defined, yet tailoring forecast products and allowing for flexible adoption assist in overcoming some obstacles. The semi-arid Elqui River basin in Chile is contending with increasing levels of water stress and demand coupled with insufficient investment in infrastructure, taxing its ability to meet agriculture, hydropower, and environmental requirements. The basin is fed from a retreating glacier, with allocation principles founded on a system of water rights and markets. A two-stage seasonal streamflow forecast at leads of one and two seasons prescribes the probability of reductions in the value of each water right, allowing water managers to inform their constituents in advance. A tool linking the streamflow forecast to a simple reservoir decision model also allows water managers to select a level of confidence in the forecast information.

  4. Ovis: A Framework for Visual Analysis of Ocean Forecast Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Höllt, Thomas; Magdy, Ahmed; Zhan, Peng; Chen, Guoning; Gopalakrishnan, Ganesh; Hoteit, Ibrahim; Hansen, Charles D; Hadwiger, Markus

    2014-08-01

    We present a novel integrated visualization system that enables interactive visual analysis of ensemble simulations of the sea surface height that is used in ocean forecasting. The position of eddies can be derived directly from the sea surface height and our visualization approach enables their interactive exploration and analysis.The behavior of eddies is important in different application settings of which we present two in this paper. First, we show an application for interactive planning of placement as well as operation of off-shore structures using real-world ensemble simulation data of the Gulf of Mexico. Off-shore structures, such as those used for oil exploration, are vulnerable to hazards caused by eddies, and the oil and gas industry relies on ocean forecasts for efficient operations. We enable analysis of the spatial domain, as well as the temporal evolution, for planning the placement and operation of structures.Eddies are also important for marine life. They transport water over large distances and with it also heat and other physical properties as well as biological organisms. In the second application we present the usefulness of our tool, which could be used for planning the paths of autonomous underwater vehicles, so called gliders, for marine scientists to study simulation data of the largely unexplored Red Sea. PMID:26357365

  5. Evaluation of ensemble forecast uncertainty using a new proper score: application to medium-range and seasonal forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christensen, Hannah; Moroz, Irene; Palmer, Tim

    2015-04-01

    Forecast verification is important across scientific disciplines as it provides a framework for evaluating the performance of a forecasting system. In the atmospheric sciences, probabilistic skill scores are often used for verification as they provide a way of unambiguously ranking the performance of different probabilistic forecasts. In order to be useful, a skill score must be proper -- it must encourage honesty in the forecaster, and reward forecasts which are reliable and which have good resolution. A new score, the Error-spread Score (ES), is proposed which is particularly suitable for evaluation of ensemble forecasts. It is formulated with respect to the moments of the forecast. The ES is confirmed to be a proper score, and is therefore sensitive to both resolution and reliability. The ES is tested on forecasts made using the Lorenz '96 system, and found to be useful for summarising the skill of the forecasts. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system (EPS) is evaluated using the ES. Its performance is compared to a perfect statistical probabilistic forecast -- the ECMWF high resolution deterministic forecast dressed with the observed error distribution. This generates a forecast that is perfectly reliable if considered over all time, but which does not vary from day to day with the predictability of the atmospheric flow. The ES distinguishes between the dynamically reliable EPS forecasts and the statically reliable dressed deterministic forecasts. Other skill scores are tested and found to be comparatively insensitive to this desirable forecast quality. The ES is used to evaluate seasonal range ensemble forecasts made with the ECMWF System 4. The ensemble forecasts are found to be skilful when compared with climatological or persistence forecasts, though this skill is dependent on region and time of year.

  6. A hybrid approach to monthly streamflow forecasting: Integrating hydrological model outputs into a Bayesian artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.

    2016-09-01

    Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.

  7. The skill of seasonal ensemble low flow forecasts for four different hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirel, M. C.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2014-05-01

    This paper investigates the skill of 90 day low flow forecasts using two conceptual hydrological models and two data-driven models based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the Moselle River. One data-driven model, ANN-Indicator (ANN-I), requires historical inputs on precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), groundwater (G) and observed discharge (Q), whereas the other data-driven model, ANN-Ensemble (ANN-E), and the two conceptual models, HBV and GR4J, use forecasted meteorological inputs (P and PET), whereby we employ ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts. We compared low flow forecasts without any meteorological forecasts as input (ANN-I) and five different cases of seasonal meteorological forcing: (1) ensemble P and PET forecasts; (2) ensemble P forecasts and observed climate mean PET; (3) observed climate mean P and ensemble PET forecasts; (4) observed climate mean P and PET and (5) zero P and ensemble PET forecasts as input for the other three models (GR4J, HBV and ANN-E). The ensemble P and PET forecasts, each consisting of 40 members, reveal the forecast ranges due to the model inputs. The five cases are compared for a lead time of 90 days based on model output ranges, whereas the four models are compared based on their skill of low flow forecasts for varying lead times up to 90 days. Before forecasting, the hydrological models are calibrated and validated for a period of 30 and 20 years respectively. The smallest difference between calibration and validation performance is found for HBV, whereas the largest difference is found for ANN-E. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict low flows using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90 day low flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model when using ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts as input. GR4J, HBV and ANN-E under-predicted 90 day ahead low flows in the very dry year 2003 without precipitation data, whereas ANN

  8. Visualization of 3D ensemble weather forecasts to predict uncertain warm conveyor belt situations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Grams, Christian M.; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    We present the application of interactive 3D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt (WCB) situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns under consideration of uncertainty in the forecast. Based on requirements of the 2012 T-NAWDEX-Falcon campaign, a method based on ensemble Lagrangian particle trajectories has been developed to predict 3D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of WCBs. The method has been integrated into the new open-source 3D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D. The integration facilitates interactive visual exploration of predicted WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. To judge forecast uncertainty, Met.3D's interactivity enables the user to compute and visualize ensemble statistical quantities on-demand and to navigate the ensemble members. A new visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region assists the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. In this presentation, we focus on a case study that illustrates how we envision the use of 3D ensemble visualization for weather forecasting. The case study revisits a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon and demonstrates the practical application of the proposed uncertainty visualization methods.

  9. 3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-02-01

    We present the application of interactive 3-D visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and forecast wind field resolution. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (three to seven days before take-off).

  10. Ensemble forecast of typhoon generated by orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Zhenhua; Duan, Wansuo; Zhou, Feifan

    2016-04-01

    Orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations (CNOPs) are the initial perturbations that have the largest impact on the forecast results in orthogonal subspaces of the initial perturbation space. Previous studies demonstrate the successful application of orthogonal CNOPs in ensemble forecasting. And further analysis indicates that orthogonal CNOPs may be more adapt to the prediction of strong events, among which typhoon events occur in the tropical or subtropical areas where the diabatic physical processes is very important and has strong nonlinear behavior. For these reasons, this paper focuses on the application of orthogonal CNOPs in ensemble forecast of typhoon. In this study, orthogonal CNOPs, orthogonal singular vectors (SVs), bred vectors (BVs) and random perturbations (RPs) are applied for typhoon ensemble forecasts using MM5 model. The results show that, for typhoons Matsa in 2005 and Sepat in 2007, ensemble forecasts generated by orthogonal CNOPs greatly improve the control forecast, successfully predicts the landing location of Matsa, and gives the warning information of the landing of Sepat. In detail, for the ensemble mean associated with orthogonal CNOPs, the averaging track forecast error over 5 days is decreased by 45.58 km for Matsa and 87.8 km for Sepat, compared with control forecast. However, ensemble forecasts generated by other three methods could not successfully predict the landing location of Matsa and give the warning information of the landing of Sepat. Compared with orthogonal SVs, BVs and RPs, ensemble forecasts generated by orthogonal CNOPs corresponds to the largest ensemble spread, improves the control forecast at the largest extent, and best samples the distribution of initial analysis errors. All these results show that orthogonal CNOPs may provide another useful technique for ensemble forecast of typhoon.

  11. Advancing the cyberinfrastructure for sustaining high resolution, real-time streamflow and flood forecasts at a national scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arctur, D. K.; Maidment, D. R.; Clark, E. P.; Gochis, D. J.; Somos-Valenzuela, M. A.; Salas, F. R.; Nelson, J.

    2015-12-01

    In just the last year, it has become feasible to generate and refresh national 15-hour forecasts of streamflow and flood inundation, every hour at high resolution (average 3km stream segments), based on a workflow integrating US National Weather Service forecasts, the WRF-Hydro land surface model, the RAPID streamflow routing model, and other models. This capability has come about through a collaboration of numerous agencies, academic research and data centers, and commercial software vendors. This presentation provides insights and lessons learned for the development and evolution of a scalable architecture for water observations and forecasts that should be sustained operationally.

  12. Downscaling medium-range ensemble forecasts using a neural network approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohba, M.; Kadokura, S.; Yoshida, Y.; Nohara, D.; Toyoda, Y.

    2015-06-01

    In this study, we present an application of self-organizing maps (SOMs) to downscaling weekly ensemble forecasts for probabilistic prediction of local precipitation in Japan. SOM is simultaneously employed on four elemental variables derived from the JRA55 reanalysis over area of study (Southwestern Japan), whereby a two-dimensional lattice of weather patterns (WPs) dominated during the 1958-2008 period is obtained. Downscaling weekly ensemble forecasts to local precipitation are conducted by using the obtained SOM lattice based on the WPs of the global model ensemble forecast. A probabilistic local precipitation is easily and quickly obtained from the ensemble forecast. The predictability skill of the ensemble forecasts for the precipitation is significantly improved under the downscaling technique.

  13. Streamflow forecasting using the modular modeling system and an object-user interface

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jeton, A.E.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation (BOR), developed a computer program to provide a general framework needed to couple disparate environmental resource models and to manage the necessary data. The Object-User Interface (OUI) is a map-based interface for models and modeling data. It provides a common interface to run hydrologic models and acquire, browse, organize, and select spatial and temporal data. One application is to assist river managers in utilizing streamflow forecasts generated with the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System running in the Modular Modeling System (MMS), a distributed-parameter watershed model, and the National Weather Service Extended Streamflow Prediction (ESP) methodology.

  14. Ensemble hydrological prediction of streamflow percentile at ungauged basins in Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waseem, Muhammad; Ajmal, Muhammad; Kim, Tae-Woong

    2015-06-01

    Streamflow records with sufficient spatial and temporal coverage at the site of interest are usually scarce in Pakistan. As an alternative, various regional methods have been frequently adopted to derive hydrological information, which in essence attempt to transfer hydrological information from gauged to ungauged catchments. In this study, a new concept of ensemble hydrological prediction (EHP) was introduced which is an improved regional method for hydrological prediction at ungauged sites. It was mainly based on the performance weights (triple-connection weights (TCW)) derived from Nash Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and hydrological variable (here percentiles) calculated from three traditional regional transfer methods (RTMs) with suitable modification (i.e., three-step drainage area ratio (DAR) method, inverse distance weighting (IDW) method, and three-step regional regression analysis (RRA)). The overall results indicated that the proposed EHP method was robust for estimating hydrological percentiles at ungauged sites as compared to traditional individual RTMs. The comparative study based on NSE, percent bias (PBIAS) and the relative error (RE) as performance criteria resulted that the EHP is a constructive alternative for hydrological prediction of ungauged basins.

  15. Exploring the calibration of a wind forecast ensemble for energy applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heppelmann, Tobias; Ben Bouallegue, Zied; Theis, Susanne

    2015-04-01

    In the German research project EWeLiNE, Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and Fraunhofer Institute for Wind Energy and Energy System Technology (IWES) are collaborating with three German Transmission System Operators (TSO) in order to provide the TSOs with improved probabilistic power forecasts. Probabilistic power forecasts are derived from probabilistic weather forecasts, themselves derived from ensemble prediction systems (EPS). Since the considered raw ensemble wind forecasts suffer from underdispersiveness and bias, calibration methods are developed for the correction of the model bias and the ensemble spread bias. The overall aim is to improve the ensemble forecasts such that the uncertainty of the possible weather deployment is depicted by the ensemble spread from the first forecast hours. Additionally, the ensemble members after calibration should remain physically consistent scenarios. We focus on probabilistic hourly wind forecasts with horizon of 21 h delivered by the convection permitting high-resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS which has become operational in 2012 at DWD. The ensemble consists of 20 ensemble members driven by four different global models. The model area includes whole Germany and parts of Central Europe with a horizontal resolution of 2.8 km and a vertical resolution of 50 model levels. For verification we use wind mast measurements around 100 m height that corresponds to the hub height of wind energy plants that belong to wind farms within the model area. Calibration of the ensemble forecasts can be performed by different statistical methods applied to the raw ensemble output. Here, we explore local bivariate Ensemble Model Output Statistics at individual sites and quantile regression with different predictors. Applying different methods, we already show an improvement of ensemble wind forecasts from COSMO-DE-EPS for energy applications. In addition, an ensemble copula coupling approach transfers the time-dependencies of the raw

  16. Long-range seasonal streamflow forecasting over the Iberian Peninsula using large-scale atmospheric and oceanic information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hidalgo-Muñoz, J. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Díez, Y.; Argüeso, D.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

    2015-05-01

    Identifying the relationship between large-scale climate signals and seasonal streamflow may provide a valuable tool for long-range seasonal forecasting in regions under water stress, such as the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The skill of the main teleconnection indices as predictors of seasonal streamflow in the IP was evaluated. The streamflow database used was composed of 382 stations, covering the period 1975-2008. Predictions were made using a leave-one-out cross-validation approach based on multiple linear regression, combining Variance Inflation Factor and Stepwise Backward selection to avoid multicollinearity and select the best subset of predictors. Predictions were made for four forecasting scenarios, from one to four seasons in advance. The correlation coefficient (RHO), Root Mean Square Error Skill Score (RMSESS), and the Gerrity Skill Score (GSS) were used to evaluate the forecasting skill. For autumn streamflow, good forecasting skill (RHO>0.5, RMSESS>20%, GSS>0.4) was found for a third of the stations located in the Mediterranean Andalusian Basin, the North Atlantic Oscillation of the previous winter being the main predictor. Also, fair forecasting skill (RHO>0.44, RMSESS>10%, GSS>0.2) was found in stations in the northwestern IP (16 of these located in the Douro and Tagus Basins) with two seasons in advance. For winter streamflow, fair forecasting skill was found for one season in advance in 168 stations, with the Snow Advance Index as the main predictor. Finally, forecasting was poorer for spring streamflow than for autumn and winter, since only 16 stations showed fair forecasting skill in with one season in advance, particularly in north-western of IP.

  17. A seasonal climate and streamflow forecasting testbed for the Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wood, A. W.; Werner, K.; Schmidt, M.

    2011-12-01

    CBRFC, NIDIS, USBR, and others have documented a consistent need for climate forecasts from one season to two years lead time to support a variety of applications, and particularly for streamflow forecasting for water, energy and agricultural management. The Colorado River basin presents a challenge due to the limited forecast skill that can be harnessed from traditional sources (e.g., ENSO) even at shorter lead times for runoff-generating headwaters in the upper basin. Nonetheless, management and planning objectives related to the larger reservoirs that USBR manages make use of predictions out to two full years. To facilitate intercomparison of research results toward improving climate and flow prediction at these lead times, CBRFC has formed a tested that targets CBRFC's USBR-oriented predictions in the Colorado River basin. The testbed contains climate and flow hindcasts for eight critical watersheds, defining the current state of the practice to support basin water management. These forecasts include those derived from the CFS and GFS, and from the CPC objective consolidation. The testbed environment also illustrates pathways for transfer of promising methods into the operational forecast environment, and define the constraints applicable to those pathways. This presentation describes the testbed and the skill of the hindcasts it currently contains, and invites additional contributions from the climate and flow forecasting community.

  18. Log-normal distribution based Ensemble Model Output Statistics models for probabilistic wind-speed forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baran, Sándor; Lerch, Sebastian

    2015-07-01

    Ensembles of forecasts are obtained from multiple runs of numerical weather forecasting models with different initial conditions and typically employed to account for forecast uncertainties. However, biases and dispersion errors often occur in forecast ensembles, they are usually under-dispersive and uncalibrated and require statistical post-processing. We present an Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) method for calibration of wind speed forecasts based on the log-normal (LN) distribution, and we also show a regime-switching extension of the model which combines the previously studied truncated normal (TN) distribution with the LN. Both presented models are applied to wind speed forecasts of the eight-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble, of the fifty-member ECMWF ensemble and of the eleven-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service, and their predictive performances are compared to those of the TN and general extreme value (GEV) distribution based EMOS methods and to the TN-GEV mixture model. The results indicate improved calibration of probabilistic and accuracy of point forecasts in comparison to the raw ensemble and to climatological forecasts. Further, the TN-LN mixture model outperforms the traditional TN method and its predictive performance is able to keep up with the models utilizing the GEV distribution without assigning mass to negative values.

  19. Dynamically downscaled multi-model ensemble seasonal forecasts over Ethiopia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asharaf, Shakeel; Fröhlich, Kristina; Fernandez, Jesus; Cardoso, Rita; Nikulin, Grigory; Früh, Barbara

    2016-04-01

    Truthful and reliable seasonal rainfall predictions have an important social and economic value for the east African countries as their economy is highly dependent on rain-fed agriculture and pastoral systems. Only June to September (JJAS) seasonal rainfall accounts to more than 80% crop production in Ethiopia. Hence, seasonal foresting is a crucial concern for the region. The European Provision of Regional Impact Assessment on a seasonal to decadal timescale (EUPORIAS) project offers a common framework to understand hindcast uncertainties through the use of multi-model and multi-member simulations over east Africa. Under this program, the participating regional climate models (RCMs) were driven by the atmospheric-only version of the ECEARTH global climate model, which provides hindcasts of a five-months period (May to September) from 1991-2012. In this study the RCMs downscaled rainfall is evaluated with respect to the observed JJAS rainfall over Ethiopia. Both deterministic and probabilistic based forecast skills are assessed. Our preliminary results show the potential usefulness of multi-model ensemble simulations in forecasting the seasonal rainfall over the region.

  20. Seasonal streamflow forecasts in a semi-arid Andean watershed using remotely sensed snow cover data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cartes, M.; McPhee, J.; Vargas, X.

    2009-04-01

    Forecasts of monthly streamflow during the snowmelt season are highly relevant for real-time decision making such as hydropower production scheduling, irrigation planning, and water transfers in market-driven water resource systems. The Chilean water bureau issues such forecasts, for a number of snowmelt-driven watersheds in northern and central Chile, based on measurements from a sparse network of snow course stations. This research aims at improving the accuracy of the government-issued seasonal forecasts by combining streamflow data and remotely sensed snow cover information through a recurrent neural network (RNN). The snow cover area (SCA) obtained from MODIS-Surface Reflectance product (MOD09) and the Normalized Differentiation Snow Index (NDSI), from 2000-2008 period, allow us to understand the variation of the snowmelt and accumulation processes in six different basins located in central Chile (32,5° - 34,5° south latitude; 69,5° -70,5° west longitude). For the three basins located at higher altitudes (> 1800 m.s.l.), after applying a cross-correlation procedure we determined a strong relation (r > 0.7) between SCA and the seasonal hydrograph, lagged around 4 months. The basin SCA, the NDSI at specific points inside the basin and past basin streamflow data are input to the RNN for recognizing the pattern variation of seasonal hydrograph through supervised learning. The determination coefficients for the validation period (r2 > 0.6) indicate a good support for the application of this methodology in normal-humid hydrological years. Particularly for the dryer years we obtain a considerable overestimation (around 30%) of the monthly snowmelt runoff. These results are limited by the availability of data for different types (dry, normal or humid) of hydrological years.

  1. Including Impacts of Climate Change in Long-Range Forecasts of Future Tuolumne River Streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenward, T.; Crawford, N. H.; Dufour, A.; McGurk, B. J.; Monier, W.

    2011-12-01

    Future streamflow is assessed for the Tuolumne River, a representative watershed in Sierra Nevada Mountains in California that provides 85% of the San Francisco Public Utility Commission's water supply for 2.5 million Bay Area residents and water to 8000 agricultural customers and over 200,000 electrical customers of the Turlock and Modesto Irrigation Districts. The Hydrocomp Forecasting and Analysis Model (HFAM) is a hydrologic simulation model which provides probabilistic inflow forecasts based on a continuous long-term simulation of a watershed driven by a historical meteorological database. The HFAM model is used to assess potential changes in the timing and volume of streamflow by driving the model with a long-term meteorological database that has been altered to represent the future climate in a specific year, for a given climate change scenario. In the Tuolumne, historical trends show increases to daily minimum temperatures but not to daily maximum temperatures. A static meteorological database that represents the current climate condition is generated by removing trends from historical data. Climate change scenarios for paired changes in temperature and precipitation were developed based on the range of predictions by global climate models. For each future climate condition, hourly temperature increases to the static database are calculated that are consistent with historical trends in daily minimum temperatures, while retaining a reasonable daily range in temperatures. Changes in future seasonal and annual probabilistic inflow forecasts are given for the Tuolumne River for each climate change scenario. The results show the importance of using probabilistic methods to assess climate change rather than mean values because impacts are more significant in low streamflow years.

  2. Are hybrid models integrated with data preprocessing techniques suitable for monthly streamflow forecasting? Some experiment evidences

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoli; Peng, Yong; Zhang, Chi; Wang, Bende

    2015-11-01

    A number of hydrological studies have proven the superior prediction performance of hybrid models coupled with data preprocessing techniques. However, many studies first decompose the entire data series into components and later divide each component into calibration and validation datasets to establish models, which sends some amount of future information into the decomposition and reconstruction processes. As a consequence, the resulting components used to forecast the value of a particular moment are computed using information from future values, which are not available at that particular moment in a forecasting exercise. Since most papers don't present their model framework in detail, it is difficult to identify whether they are performing a real forecast or not. Even though several other papers have explicitly stated which experiment they are performing, a comparison between results in the hindcast and forecast experiments is still missing. Therefore, it is necessary to investigate and compare the performance of these hybrid models in the two experiments in order to estimate whether they are suitable for real forecasting. With the combination of three preprocessing techniques, such as wavelet analysis (WA), empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and two modeling methods (i.e. ANN model and ARMA model), six hybrid models are developed in this study, including WA-ANN, WA-ARMA, EMD-ANN, EMD-ARMA, SSA-ANN and SSA-ARMA. Preprocessing techniques are used to decompose the data series into sub-series, and then these sub-series are modeled using ANN and ARMA models. These models are examined in hindcasting and forecasting of the monthly streamflow of two sites in the Yangtze River of China. The results of this study indicate that the six hybrid models perform better in the hindcast experiment compared with the original ANN and ARMA models, while the hybrid models in the forecast experiment perform worse than the original models and the

  3. Comparison of the performance and reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models driven by ECMWF rainfall ensemble forecasts: a case study on 29 French catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Velázquez, Juan Alberto; Anctil, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Perrin, Charles

    2010-05-01

    An ensemble forecasting system seeks to assess and to communicate the uncertainty of hydrological predictions by proposing, at each time step, an ensemble of forecasts from which one can estimate the probability distribution of the predictant (the probabilistic forecast), in contrast with a single estimate of the flow, for which no distribution is obtainable (the deterministic forecast). In the past years, efforts towards the development of probabilistic hydrological prediction systems were made with the adoption of ensembles of numerical weather predictions (NWPs). The additional information provided by the different available Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) was evaluated in a hydrological context on various case studies (see the review by Cloke and Pappenberger, 2009). For example, the European ECMWF-EPS was explored in case studies by Roulin et al. (2005), Bartholmes et al. (2005), Jaun et al. (2008), and Renner et al. (2009). The Canadian EC-EPS was also evaluated by Velázquez et al. (2009). Most of these case studies investigate the ensemble predictions of a given hydrological model, set up over a limited number of catchments. Uncertainty from weather predictions is assessed through the use of meteorological ensembles. However, uncertainty from the tested hydrological model and statistical robustness of the forecasting system when coping with different hydro-meteorological conditions are less frequently evaluated. The aim of this study is to evaluate and compare the performance and the reliability of 18 lumped hydrological models applied to a large number of catchments in an operational ensemble forecasting context. Some of these models were evaluated in a previous study (Perrin et al. 2001) for their ability to simulate streamflow. Results demonstrated that very simple models can achieve a level of performance almost as high (sometimes higher) as models with more parameters. In the present study, we focus on the ability of the hydrological models to

  4. A New Multivariate Approach in Generating Ensemble Meteorological Forcings for Hydrological Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khajehei, Sepideh; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2015-04-01

    Producing reliable and accurate hydrologic ensemble forecasts are subject to various sources of uncertainty, including meteorological forcing, initial conditions, model structure, and model parameters. Producing reliable and skillful precipitation ensemble forecasts is one approach to reduce the total uncertainty in hydrological applications. Currently, National Weather Prediction (NWP) models are developing ensemble forecasts for various temporal ranges. It is proven that raw products from NWP models are biased in mean and spread. Given the above state, there is a need for methods that are able to generate reliable ensemble forecasts for hydrological applications. One of the common techniques is to apply statistical procedures in order to generate ensemble forecast from NWP-generated single-value forecasts. The procedure is based on the bivariate probability distribution between the observation and single-value precipitation forecast. However, one of the assumptions of the current method is fitting Gaussian distribution to the marginal distributions of observed and modeled climate variable. Here, we have described and evaluated a Bayesian approach based on Copula functions to develop an ensemble precipitation forecast from the conditional distribution of single-value precipitation forecasts. Copula functions are known as the multivariate joint distribution of univariate marginal distributions, which are presented as an alternative procedure in capturing the uncertainties related to meteorological forcing. Copulas are capable of modeling the joint distribution of two variables with any level of correlation and dependency. This study is conducted over a sub-basin in the Columbia River Basin in USA using the monthly precipitation forecasts from Climate Forecast System (CFS) with 0.5x0.5 Deg. spatial resolution to reproduce the observations. The verification is conducted on a different period and the superiority of the procedure is compared with Ensemble Pre

  5. Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

    2012-12-01

    The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble

  6. Development and application of an atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic flood forecasting model driven by TIGGE ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Hongjun; Zhao, Linna

    2012-02-01

    A coupled atmospheric-hydrologic-hydraulic ensemble flood forecasting model, driven by The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data, has been developed for flood forecasting over the Huaihe River. The incorporation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) information into flood forecasting systems may increase forecast lead time from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP model forecast from a single forecast center, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and leads to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble NWP systems through TIGGE offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Xinanjiang model used for hydrological rainfall-runoff modeling and the one-dimensional unsteady flow model applied to channel flood routing are coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE data from the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the UK Met Office (UKMO), and the US National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The developed ensemble flood forecasting model is applied to flood forecasting of the 2007 flood season as a test case. The test case is chosen over the upper reaches of the Huaihe River above Lutaizi station with flood diversion and retarding areas. The input flood discharge hydrograph from the main channel to the flood diversion area is estimated with the fixed split ratio of the main channel discharge. The flood flow inside the flood retarding area is calculated as a reservoir with the water balance method. The Muskingum method is used for flood routing in the flood diversion area. A probabilistic discharge and flood inundation forecast is provided as the end product to study the potential benefits of using the TIGGE ensemble forecasts. The results demonstrate satisfactory flood forecasting with clear signals of probability of floods up to a

  7. Streamflow hindcasting in European river basins via multi-parametric ensemble of the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Noh, Seong Jin; Rakovec, Oldrich; Kumar, Rohini; Samaniego, Luis

    2016-04-01

    There have been tremendous improvements in distributed hydrologic modeling (DHM) which made a process-based simulation with a high spatiotemporal resolution applicable on a large spatial scale. Despite of increasing information on heterogeneous property of a catchment, DHM is still subject to uncertainties inherently coming from model structure, parameters and input forcing. Sequential data assimilation (DA) may facilitate improved streamflow prediction via DHM using real-time observations to correct internal model states. In conventional DA methods such as state updating, parametric uncertainty is, however, often ignored mainly due to practical limitations of methodology to specify modeling uncertainty with limited ensemble members. If parametric uncertainty related with routing and runoff components is not incorporated properly, predictive uncertainty by DHM may be insufficient to capture dynamics of observations, which may deteriorate predictability. Recently, a multi-scale parameter regionalization (MPR) method was proposed to make hydrologic predictions at different scales using a same set of model parameters without losing much of the model performance. The MPR method incorporated within the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM, http://www.ufz.de/mhm) could effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters in a distributed model using global parameters. In this study, we present a global multi-parametric ensemble approach to incorporate parametric uncertainty of DHM in DA to improve streamflow predictions. To effectively represent and control uncertainty of high-dimensional parameters with limited number of ensemble, MPR method is incorporated with DA. Lagged particle filtering is utilized to consider the response times and non-Gaussian characteristics of internal hydrologic processes. The hindcasting experiments are implemented to evaluate impacts of the proposed DA method on streamflow predictions in multiple European river basins

  8. Improving urban streamflow forecasting using a high-resolution large scale modeling framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Read, Laura; Hogue, Terri; Gochis, David; Salas, Fernando

    2016-04-01

    Urban flood forecasting is a critical component in effective water management, emergency response, regional planning, and disaster mitigation. As populations across the world continue to move to cities (~1.8% growth per year), and studies indicate that significant flood damages are occurring outside the floodplain in urban areas, the ability to model and forecast flow over the urban landscape becomes critical to maintaining infrastructure and society. In this work, we use the Weather Research and Forecasting- Hydrological (WRF-Hydro) modeling framework as a platform for testing improvements to representation of urban land cover, impervious surfaces, and urban infrastructure. The three improvements we evaluate include: updating the land cover to the latest 30-meter National Land Cover Dataset, routing flow over a high-resolution 30-meter grid, and testing a methodology for integrating an urban drainage network into the routing regime. We evaluate performance of these improvements in the WRF-Hydro model for specific flood events in the Denver-Metro Colorado domain, comparing to historic gaged streamflow for retrospective forecasts. Denver-Metro provides an interesting case study as it is a rapidly growing urban/peri-urban region with an active history of flooding events that have caused significant loss of life and property. Considering that the WRF-Hydro model will soon be implemented nationally in the U.S. to provide flow forecasts on the National Hydrography Dataset Plus river reaches - increasing capability from 3,600 forecast points to 2.7 million, we anticipate that this work will support validation of this service in urban areas for operational forecasting. Broadly, this research aims to provide guidance for integrating complex urban infrastructure with a large-scale, high resolution coupled land-surface and distributed hydrologic model.

  9. Real-time application of meteorological ensembles for Danube flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Csík, A.; Gauzer, B.; Gnandt, B.; Balint, G.

    2009-04-01

    Flood forecasting schemes may have the most diverse structure depending on catchment size, response or concentration time and the availability of real time input data. The centre of weight of the hydrological forecasting system is often shifted from hydrological tools to the meteorological observation and forecasting systems. At lowland river sections simple flood routing techniques prevail where accuracy of discharge estimation might depend mostly on the accuracy of upstream discharge estimation. In large river basin systems both elements are present. Attempts are made enabling the use of ensemble of short and medium term meteorological forecast results for real-time flood forecasting by coupling meteorological and hydrological modelling tools. The system is designed in three parts covering the upper and central Danube. The large number of nodes (41) makes the system in fact semi distributed in basin scale. All of the nodes are prepared for forecast purposes. Real time mode runs are carried out in 6 hourly time steps. The available meteorological analysis and forecasting tools are linked to the flood forecasting system. Meteorological forecasts include 6 days and 12 days out of the ECMWF 10-14-day ahead EPS and VarEPS. The hydrological side of the system includes the data ingestion part producing semi distributed catchment wise input from gridded fields and rainfall-runoff, flood routing modules. Operational application of the of the ensemble system has been studied by the comparison of real time deterministic forecast and the experimental real time ensemble forecast results since the summer of 2008 on the river Danube. The period of June-October 2008 included mostly low water period interrupted by smaller floods. The real time ensemble hydrological forecasting experiment proved that the use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue forecasts with describing current uncertainties. As the result of the

  10. Retrospective analysis and forecasting of streamflows using a shifting level model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fortin, V.; Perreault, L.; Salas, J. D.

    2004-08-01

    Shifting level models have been suggested in the literature since the late 1970's for stochastic simulation of streamflow data. Parameter estimation for these models has been generally based on the method of moments. While this estimation approach has been useful for simulation studies, some limitations are apparent. One is the difficulty of evaluating the uncertainty of the model parameters, and another one is that the proposed model is not amenable to forecasting because the underlying mean of the process, which changes with time, is not estimated. In this paper, we reformulate the original shifting level model to conform to the so-called Hidden Markov Chain models (HMMs). These models are increasingly used in applied statistics and techniques such as Monte-Carlo Markov chain, and in particular Gibbs sampling, are well suited for estimating the parameters of HMMs. We use Gibbs sampling in a Bayesian framework for parameter estimation and show the applicability of the reformulated shifting level model for detection of abrupt regime changes and forecasting of annual streamflow series. The procedure is illustrated using annual flows of the Senegal River in Africa.

  11. Estimating and communicating hydrometeorological uncertainty in a context of operational hydrological ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Ramos, M.; Gailhard, J.; Bernard, P.; Garçon, R.

    2010-12-01

    In the context of a national energy company (EDF :Electricité de France), hydro-meteorological forecasts are necessary to ensure safety and security of installations, meet environmental standards and improve water ressources management and decision making. Given that the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. In this context, the good estimation and communication of hydrological forecasts uncertainties is an essential step to improve the efficient use of forecasts by end-users. This communication is based on operational experiences and focuses on the estimation and communication of uncertain hydro-meteorological forecasts. First, an operational hydro-meteorological ensemble chain developed at EDF is introduced. This chain takes into account both meteorological and hydrological uncertainties, in order to achieve a good probabilistic calibration of forecasts. Probabilistic calibration is absolutely necessary to avoid misrepresentation of uncertainties and under-confidence of forecasts by forecasters and end-users. Then, typical case-studies based on rare hydro-meteorological events will illustrate forecasters difficulty to estimate and communicate forecast uncertainties. Examples on the Durance (Alps) and Loire (Cevennes) watersheds show the cascading and mixing of uncertainties. Forecasters are used to face rather complex situations and cope with uncertain spatio-temporal meteorological forecasts, uncertain rainfall-runoff models and their own expertise. This communication illustrate the daily forecaster experience of hydrometeorological uncertainties and the difficulties to

  12. Development and evaluation of an ensemble forecasting system for regional ocean wave at KMA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    PARK, J. S.

    2015-12-01

    KMA developed an ensemble forecasting system for regional wave. The system predicts ocean (wind) waves based on meteorological forcing from the KMA-EPSG (Ensemble Prediction System for Global at KMA), which has been running twice per day on experiment. It consisted of 24 ensemble members including the control member. It made 87 hour forecasts for 00 and 12 UTC each day. Its spatial resolution is 0.083° in latitude and longitude from 115E to 150E and from 20N to 50N regionally. The wind forcing for the 24 ensemble members are obtained from KMA-EPSG 10m wind fields and are updated every three hours.Hereafter, the ensemble ocean wave forecasts will be evaluated using moored buoy data from 8 locations around the coast of South Korea. Statistical verification will be performed for the typhoon cases during summer in 2015. The RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) is calculated for four types of forecasts: the ensemble control, the perturbed ensemble members, the mean of all ensemble members (including the control), and the existing operational deterministic waves forecasts. Also, this study will be conducted probability analysis such as brier score (BS), economical value on the performance of the system.

  13. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2013-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography. These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as multi

  14. Verification of Meteorological and Oceanographic Ensemble Forecasts in the U.S. Navy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klotz, S. P.; Hansen, J.; Pauley, P.; Sestak, M.; Wittmann, P.; Skupniewicz, C.; Nelson, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Navy Ensemble Forecast Verification System (NEFVS) has been promoted recently to operational status at the U.S. Navy's Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center (FNMOC). NEFVS processes FNMOC and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) meteorological and ocean wave ensemble forecasts, gridded forecast analyses, and innovation (observational) data output by FNMOC's data assimilation system. The NEFVS framework consists of statistical analysis routines, a variety of pre- and post-processing scripts to manage data and plot verification metrics, and a master script to control application workflow. NEFVS computes metrics that include forecast bias, mean-squared error, conditional error, conditional rank probability score, and Brier score. The system also generates reliability and Receiver Operating Characteristic diagrams. In this presentation we describe the operational framework of NEFVS and show examples of verification products computed from ensemble forecasts, meteorological observations, and forecast analyses. The construction and deployment of NEFVS addresses important operational and scientific requirements within Navy Meteorology and Oceanography (METOC). These include computational capabilities for assessing the reliability and accuracy of meteorological and ocean wave forecasts in an operational environment, for quantifying effects of changes and potential improvements to the Navy's forecast models, and for comparing the skill of forecasts from different forecast systems. NEFVS also supports the Navy's collaboration with the U.S. Air Force, NCEP, and Environment Canada in the North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) project and with the Air Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) program. This program is tasked with eliminating unnecessary duplication within the three agencies, accelerating the transition of new technology, such as

  15. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Y.; Cluckie, I. D.; Wang, Y.

    2009-03-01

    Advances in mesoscale numerical weather predication make it possible to provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possible to incorporate high-resolution NWPs directly into flood forecasting systems in order to obtain an extended lead time. It is recognised, however, that direct application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable uncertainty to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be magnified by the scaling process. As the ensemble weather forecast has become operationally available, it is of particular interest to the hydrologist to investigate both the potential and implication of ensemble rainfall inputs to the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we employ a distributed hydrological model to analyse the performance of the ensemble flow forecasts based on the ensemble rainfall inputs from a short-range high-resolution mesoscale weather model. The results show that: (1) The hydrological model driven by QPF can produce forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) The ensemble hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself; and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematic biases are sometimes significant and, as such, extra effort needs to be made to improve the quality of such a system.

  16. Uncertainty analysis of hydrological ensemble forecasts in a distributed model utilising short-range rainfall prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cluckie, I. D.; Xuan, Y.; Wang, Y.

    2006-10-01

    Advances in meso-scale numerical weather predication make it possible to provide rainfall forecasts along with many other data fields at increasingly higher spatial resolutions. It is currently possible to incorporate high-resolution NWPs directly into flood forecasting systems in order to obtain an extended lead time. It is recognised, however, that direct application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable uncertainty to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be magnified by the scaling process. As the ensemble weather forecast has become operationally available, it is of particular interest to the hydrologist to investigate both the potential and implication of ensemble rainfall inputs to the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. In this paper, we employ a distributed hydrological model to analyse the performance of the ensemble flow forecasts based on the ensemble rainfall inputs from a short-range high-resolution mesoscale weather model. The results show that: (1) The hydrological model driven by QPF can produce forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) The ensemble hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself; and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematic biases are sometimes significant and, as such, extra effort needs to be made to improve the quality of such a system.

  17. Assimilating in situ and radar altimetry data into a large-scale hydrologic-hydrodynamic model for streamflow forecast in the Amazon River basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Paiva, R. C.; Collischonn, W.; Bonnet, M.; Goncalves, L.; Getirana, A.; Calmant, S.

    2012-12-01

    Large-scale hydrological models and forecast systems may be important tools to reduce the vulnerability of local population in places such as the Amazon River basin, where extreme hydrological events have occurred in the past few years. Due to the size of the basin and the slow speed of movement of its floods, uncertainty on model initial conditions (ICs) may play an important role for discharge forecasts using large scale hydrological models, even for relatively large lead times (~ 1 to 3 months). Data assimilation (DA) methods may provide an interesting way of merging both in situ and newly remotely sensed observations with models to estimate optimal ICs. We present the development and evaluation of a data assimilation framework for both gauged and radar altimetry based discharge and water levels into a large scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model of the Amazon River basin. We also explore the usefulness of such system to provide streamflow forecasts when forced by past climate and based mostly on model initial conditions. This work is in the context of recent developments of techniques for integrating information from models and remotely sensed data, and also of regional/global hydrological forecast systems including poorly gauged basins. We use the conceptual and physically based MGB-IPH model. The model uses the Penman Monteith for evapotranspiration and the Moore and Clarke model for soil water storage. River dynamics is simulated using full Saint-Venant equations and a simple floodplain storage model. The model was forced using satellite-derived daily rainfall (TRMM 3B42). We implemented a DA scheme based on the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) capable of assimilating three types of data: (1) discharge observations; (2) water levels provided by the ENVISAT radar altimeter; and (3) discharge estimated from radar altimetry. All state variables of the hydrological model were updated at each analyses time step. Model state variables errors were generated by

  18. Skill improvement of seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasts using bias-correction and ensemble calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krikken, Folmer; Hazeleger, Wilco; Vlot, Willem; Schmeits, Maurice; Guemas, Virginie

    2016-04-01

    We explore the standard error and skill of dynamical seasonal sea ice forecasts of the Arctic using different bias-correction and ensemble calibration methods. The latter is often used in weather forecasting, but so far has not been applied to Arctic sea ice forecasts. We use seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice of a 5-member ensemble forecast using the fully coupled GCM EC-Earth, with model initial states obtained by nudging towards ORAS4 and ERA-Interim. The raw model forecasts contain large biases in total sea ice area, especially during the summer months. This is mainly caused by a difference in average seasonal cycle between EC-Earth and observations, which translates directly into the forecasts yielding large biases. Further errors are introduced by the differences in long term trend between the observed sea ice, and the uninitialised EC-earth simulation. We find that extended logistic regression (ELR) and heteroscedastic extended logistic regression (HELR) both prove viable ensemble calibration methods, and improve the forecasts substantially compared to standard bias correction techniques. No clear distinction between ELR and HELR is found. Forecasts starting in May have higher skill (CRPSS > 0 up to 5 months lead time) than forecasts starting in August (2-3 months) and November (2-3 months), with trend-corrected climatology as reference. Analysis of regional skill in the Arctic shows distinct differences, where mainly the Arctic ocean and the Kara and Barents sea prove to be one of the more predictable regions with skilful forecasts starting in May up to 5-6 months lead time. Again, forecasts starting in August and November show much lower regional skill. Overall, it is still difficult to beat relative simple statistical forecasts, but by using ELR and HELR we are getting reasonably close to skilful seasonal forecasts up to 12 months lead time. These results show there is large potential, and need, for using ensemble calibration in seasonal forecasts of

  19. Analyses and forecasts of a tornadic supercell outbreak using a 3DVAR system ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhuang, Zhaorong; Yussouf, Nusrat; Gao, Jidong

    2016-05-01

    As part of NOAA's "Warn-On-Forecast" initiative, a convective-scale data assimilation and prediction system was developed using the WRF-ARW model and ARPS 3DVAR data assimilation technique. The system was then evaluated using retrospective short-range ensemble analyses and probabilistic forecasts of the tornadic supercell outbreak event that occurred on 24 May 2011 in Oklahoma, USA. A 36-member multi-physics ensemble system provided the initial and boundary conditions for a 3-km convective-scale ensemble system. Radial velocity and reflectivity observations from four WSR-88Ds were assimilated into the ensemble using the ARPS 3DVAR technique. Five data assimilation and forecast experiments were conducted to evaluate the sensitivity of the system to data assimilation frequencies, in-cloud temperature adjustment schemes, and fixed- and mixed-microphysics ensembles. The results indicated that the experiment with 5-min assimilation frequency quickly built up the storm and produced a more accurate analysis compared with the 10-min assimilation frequency experiment. The predicted vertical vorticity from the moist-adiabatic in-cloud temperature adjustment scheme was larger in magnitude than that from the latent heat scheme. Cycled data assimilation yielded good forecasts, where the ensemble probability of high vertical vorticity matched reasonably well with the observed tornado damage path. Overall, the results of the study suggest that the 3DVAR analysis and forecast system can provide reasonable forecasts of tornadic supercell storms.

  20. Performance comparison of meso-scale ensemble wave forecasting systems for Mediterranean sea states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pezzutto, Paolo; Saulter, Andrew; Cavaleri, Luigi; Bunney, Christopher; Marcucci, Francesca; Torrisi, Lucio; Sebastianelli, Stefano

    2016-08-01

    This paper compares the performance of two wind and wave short range ensemble forecast systems for the Mediterranean Sea. In particular, it describes a six month verification experiment carried out by the U.K. Met Office and Italian Air Force Meteorological Service, based on their respective systems: the Met Office Global-Regional Ensemble Prediction System and the Nettuno Ensemble Prediction System. The latter is the ensemble version of the operational Nettuno forecast system. Attention is focused on the differences between the two implementations (e.g. grid resolution and initial ensemble members sampling) and their effects on the prediction skill. The cross-verification of the two ensemble systems shows that from a macroscopic point of view the differences cancel out, suggesting similar skill. More in-depth analysis indicates that the Nettuno wave forecast is better resolved but, on average, slightly less reliable than the Met Office product. Assessment of the added value of the ensemble techniques at short range in comparison with the deterministic forecast from Nettuno, reveals that adopting the ensemble approach has small, but substantive, advantages.

  1. Operational hydrological ensemble forecasts in France, taking into account rainfall and hydrological model uncertainties.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mathevet, T.; Garavaglia, F.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.; Dubus, L.

    2009-09-01

    In operational conditions, the actual quality of meteorological and hydrological forecasts do not allow decision-making in a certain future. In this context, meteorological and hydrological ensemble forecasts allow a better representation of forecasts uncertainties. Compared to classical deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts improve the human expertise of hydrological forecasts, which is essential to synthesize available informations, coming from different meteorological and hydrological models and human experience. In this paper, we present a hydrological ensemble forecasting system under development at EDF (French Hydropower Company). Our results were updated, taking into account a longer rainfall forecasts archive. Our forecasting system both takes into account rainfall forecasts uncertainties and hydrological model forecasts uncertainties. Hydrological forecasts were generated using the MORDOR model (Andreassian et al., 2006), developed at EDF and used on a daily basis in operational conditions on a hundred of watersheds. Two sources of rainfall forecasts were used : one is based on ECMWF forecasts, another is based on an analogues approach (Obled et al., 2002). Two methods of hydrological model forecasts uncertainty estimation were used : one is based on the use of equifinal parameter sets (Beven & Binley, 1992), the other is based on the statistical modelisation of the hydrological forecast empirical uncertainty (Montanari et al., 2004 ; Schaefli et al., 2007). Daily operational hydrological 7-day ensemble forecasts during 4 years (from 2005 to 2008) in few alpine watersheds were evaluated. Finally, we present a way to combine rainfall and hydrological model forecast uncertainties to achieve a good probabilistic calibration. Our results show that the combination of ECMWF and analogues-based rainfall forecasts allow a good probabilistic calibration of rainfall forecasts. They show also that the statistical modeling of the hydrological forecast empirical

  2. Application of dynamic linear regression to improve the skill of ensemble-based deterministic ozone forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Pagowski, M O; Grell, G A; Devenyi, D; Peckham, S E; McKeen, S A; Gong, W; Monache, L D; McHenry, J N; McQueen, J; Lee, P

    2006-02-02

    Forecasts from seven air quality models and surface ozone data collected over the eastern USA and southern Canada during July and August 2004 provide a unique opportunity to assess benefits of ensemble-based ozone forecasting and devise methods to improve ozone forecasts. In this investigation, past forecasts from the ensemble of models and hourly surface ozone measurements at over 350 sites are used to issue deterministic 24-h forecasts using a method based on dynamic linear regression. Forecasts of hourly ozone concentrations as well as maximum daily 8-h and 1-h averaged concentrations are considered. It is shown that the forecasts issued with the application of this method have reduced bias and root mean square error and better overall performance scores than any of the ensemble members and the ensemble average. Performance of the method is similar to another method based on linear regression described previously by Pagowski et al., but unlike the latter, the current method does not require measurements from multiple monitors since it operates on individual time series. Improvement in the forecasts can be easily implemented and requires minimal computational cost.

  3. Short-term optimal operation of water systems using ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raso, L.; Schwanenberg, D.; van de Giesen, N. C.; van Overloop, P. J.

    2014-09-01

    Short-term water system operation can be realized using Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC is a method for operational management of complex dynamic systems. Applied to open water systems, MPC provides integrated, optimal, and proactive management, when forecasts are available. Notwithstanding these properties, if forecast uncertainty is not properly taken into account, the system performance can critically deteriorate. Ensemble forecast is a way to represent short-term forecast uncertainty. An ensemble forecast is a set of possible future trajectories of a meteorological or hydrological system. The growing ensemble forecasts’ availability and accuracy raises the question on how to use them for operational management. The theoretical innovation presented here is the use of ensemble forecasts for optimal operation. Specifically, we introduce a tree based approach. We called the new method Tree-Based Model Predictive Control (TB-MPC). In TB-MPC, a tree is used to set up a Multistage Stochastic Programming, which finds a different optimal strategy for each branch and enhances the adaptivity to forecast uncertainty. Adaptivity reduces the sensitivity to wrong forecasts and improves the operational performance. TB-MPC is applied to the operational management of Salto Grande reservoir, located at the border between Argentina and Uruguay, and compared to other methods.

  4. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, Vera; Bisselink, Bernard; Pappenberger, Florian; Thielen, Jutta

    2015-04-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions of the ECMWF and critical hydrological thresholds. In this study the predictive capability is investigated, to estimate AFFS' potential as an operational flood forecasting system for the whole of Africa. This is done in a hindcast mode, by reproducing pan-African hydrological predictions for the whole year of 2003 where important flood events were observed. Results were analysed in two ways, each with its individual objective. The first part of the analysis is of paramount importance for the assessment of AFFS as a flood forecasting system, as it focuses on the detection and prediction of flood events. Here, results were verified with reports of various flood archives such as Dartmouth Flood Observatory, the Emergency Event Database, the NASA Earth Observatory and Reliefweb. The number of hits, false alerts and missed alerts as well as the Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate and Critical Success Index were determined for various conditions (different regions, flood durations, average amount of annual precipitations, size of affected areas and mean annual discharge). The second part of the analysis complements the first by giving a basic insight into the prediction skill of the general streamflow. For this, hydrological predictions were compared against observations at 36 key locations across Africa and the Continuous Rank Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the limit of predictability and reliability were calculated. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas

  5. A dual-pass error-correction technique for forecasting streamflow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pagano, T. C.; Wang, Q. J.; Hapuarachchi, P.; Robertson, D.

    2011-08-01

    SummaryThis study reports the development and testing of a "dual-pass" method for correcting slowly varying errors in simulations of streamflow. Error correction is a form of data assimilation used to improve streamflow forecasts. The dual-pass method is ideally suited for catchments with long-lasting shifts in runoff efficiency that the hydrologic model poorly simulates. In a first pass, the simulation is rescaled (i.e. multiplicative correction is applied), based on the cumulative error over the prior 365 days. In a second pass, a correction is added to the adjusted series, based on the error from the most recent timestep. When tested on 330 Australian and 183 United States catchments, the dual-pass approach improved the median four-measure validation skill score from 0.83 to 0.89 for the GR4J model and from 0.56 to 0.79 for a naïve coefficient model. The majority of improvement comes from the second pass (the short-memory component). The magnitudes of correction at each pass are controlled by two tuneable parameters; a global sensitivity analysis determined that satisfactory performance could be had without tuning of the long-memory (first pass) error-correction parameter. For most catchments, the use of the long-memory error-correction neither degrades nor significantly improves performance. International hydrological modeling datasets have relatively fewer catchments with slowly varying errors than might be encountered in operational forecasting environments, therefore, there is a need for better identification and study of such problem catchments.

  6. A Multitemporal Remote Sensing Approach to Streamflow Prediction and Flood Vulnerability Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weissling, B. P.; Xie, H.

    2006-12-01

    precipitation, land surface temperature, and select vegetation indices accounted for 78% (R2adj = 0.78) of the variance of gage station observed streamflow for calendar year 2004. Efforts are underway to calibrate and validate this model for other time periods within the data availability window of MODIS imagery products, and for other watersheds of varying size and similar climatic regime within the Guadalupe River and neighboring basins. The success of this remote sensing approach will have implications for developing near real-time flood risk and vulnerability forecasting models for both gaged and ungaged watersheds, as well as water supply management in regions of the world with limited resources to undertake conventional ground-based hydrologic studies.

  7. Uncertainty Analysis of the Ensemble Hydrological Forecasts in the Coupled Meteorological-Hydrological Modelling Environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xuan, Y.; Cluckie, I. D.

    2006-12-01

    The advances in meso-scale numerical weather predication render hydrologists the capability to incorporate high-resolution NWP directly into flood forecasting systems in order to obtain an extended lead time. However, such a direct application of rainfall outputs from the NWP model can contribute considerable uncertainties to the final river flow forecasts as the uncertainties inherent in the NWP are propagated into hydrological domains and can also be highlighted by the scaling process. In this research, the ensemble hydrological forecasts driven by the ensemble weather prediction are investigated in an effort trying to understand both the potential and the implication of the ensemble rainfall inputs to the hydrological modelling systems in terms of uncertainty propagation. A data-rich catchment facilitated with dense rainguage network as well as high resolution weather radar was chosen to run the ensemble hydrological simulations of a distributed hydrological model driven by the high resolution NWP predictions. The uncertainties of the amount and the location/timing of the rainfall prediction are discussed whith the results showing that: (1) the hydrological model driven by the short-range NWP can produce forecasts comparable with those from a raingauge-driven one; (2) the ensemble hydrological forecast is able to disseminate abundant information with regard to the nature of the weather system and the confidence of the forecast itself; and (3) the uncertainties as well as systematical biases sometimes are significantly large and, as such, extra efforts need to be made to improve the quality of such a system.

  8. Ensemble forecasting for renewable energy applications - status and current challenges for their generation and verification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinson, Pierre

    2016-04-01

    The operational management of renewable energy generation in power systems and electricity markets requires forecasts in various forms, e.g., deterministic or probabilistic, continuous or categorical, depending upon the decision process at hand. Besides, such forecasts may also be necessary at various spatial and temporal scales, from high temporal resolutions (in the order of minutes) and very localized for an offshore wind farm, to coarser temporal resolutions (hours) and covering a whole country for day-ahead power scheduling problems. As of today, weather predictions are a common input to forecasting methodologies for renewable energy generation. Since for most decision processes, optimal decisions can only be made if accounting for forecast uncertainties, ensemble predictions and density forecasts are increasingly seen as the product of choice. After discussing some of the basic approaches to obtaining ensemble forecasts of renewable power generation, it will be argued that space-time trajectories of renewable power production may or may not be necessitate post-processing ensemble forecasts for relevant weather variables. Example approaches and test case applications will be covered, e.g., looking at the Horns Rev offshore wind farm in Denmark, or gridded forecasts for the whole continental Europe. Eventually, we will illustrate some of the limitations of current frameworks to forecast verification, which actually make it difficult to fully assess the quality of post-processing approaches to obtain renewable energy predictions.

  9. Improving the accuracy of flood forecasting with transpositions of ensemble NWP rainfall fields considering orographic effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Wansik; Nakakita, Eiichi; Kim, Sunmin; Yamaguchi, Kosei

    2016-08-01

    The use of meteorological ensembles to produce sets of hydrological predictions increased the capability to issue flood warnings. However, space scale of the hydrological domain is still much finer than meteorological model, and NWP models have challenges with displacement. The main objective of this study to enhance the transposition method proposed in Yu et al. (2014) and to suggest the post-processing ensemble flood forecasting method for the real-time updating and the accuracy improvement of flood forecasts that considers the separation of the orographic rainfall and the correction of misplaced rain distributions using additional ensemble information through the transposition of rain distributions. In the first step of the proposed method, ensemble forecast rainfalls from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model are separated into orographic and non-orographic rainfall fields using atmospheric variables and the extraction of topographic effect. Then the non-orographic rainfall fields are examined by the transposition scheme to produce additional ensemble information and new ensemble NWP rainfall fields are calculated by recombining the transposition results of non-orographic rain fields with separated orographic rainfall fields for a generation of place-corrected ensemble information. Then, the additional ensemble information is applied into a hydrologic model for post-flood forecasting with a 6-h interval. The newly proposed method has a clear advantage to improve the accuracy of mean value of ensemble flood forecasting. Our study is carried out and verified using the largest flood event by typhoon 'Talas' of 2011 over the two catchments, which are Futatsuno (356.1 km2) and Nanairo (182.1 km2) dam catchments of Shingu river basin (2360 km2), which is located in the Kii peninsula, Japan.

  10. Ensemble seasonal forecast of extreme water inflow into a large reservoir

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gelfan, A. N.; Motovilov, Yu. G.; Moreido, V. M.

    2015-06-01

    An approach to seasonal ensemble forecast of unregulated water inflow into a large reservoir was developed. The approach is founded on a physically-based semi-distributed hydrological model ECOMAG driven by Monte-Carlo generated ensembles of weather scenarios for a specified lead-time of the forecast (3 months ahead in this study). Case study was carried out for the Cheboksary reservoir (catchment area is 374 000 km2) located on the middle Volga River. Initial watershed conditions on the forecast date (1 March for spring freshet and 1 June for summer low-water period) were simulated by the hydrological model forced by daily meteorological observations several months prior to the forecast date. A spatially distributed stochastic weather generator was used to produce time-series of daily weather scenarios for the forecast lead-time. Ensemble of daily water inflow into the reservoir was obtained by driving the ECOMAG model with the generated weather time-series. The proposed ensemble forecast technique was verified on the basis of the hindcast simulations for 29 spring and summer seasons beginning from 1982 (the year of the reservoir filling to capacity) to 2010. The verification criteria were used in order to evaluate an ability of the proposed technique to forecast freshet/low-water events of the pre-assigned severity categories.

  11. Usefulness of ECMWF system-4 ensemble seasonal climate forecasts for East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogutu, Geoffrey; Franssen, Wietse; Supit, Iwan; Omondi, Philip; Hutjes, Ronald

    2016-04-01

    This study evaluates whether European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) system-4 seasonal forecasts can potentially be used as input for impact analysis over East Africa. To be of any use, these forecasts should have skill. We used the 15-member ensemble runs and tested potential forecast skill of precipitation (tp), near surface air temperature (tas) and surface downwelling shortwave radiation (rsds) for future use in impact models. Probabilistic measures verified the ECMWF ensemble forecasts against the WATCH Forcing Data methodology applied to ERA-Interim data (WFDEI) climatology for the period 1981-2010. The Ranked Probability Skill Score (RPSS) assesses the overall forecast skill, whereas the Relative Operating Curve Skill Score (ROCSS) analyses skill of the forecasted tercile at both grid cell and over sub-regions with homogeneous rainfall characteristics. The results show that predictability of the three variables varies with season, location and forecast month (lead-time) before start of the seasons. Quantile-quantile bias correction clears biases in the raw forecasts but does not improve probabilistic skills. The October-December (OND) tp forecasts show skill over a larger area up to lead-time of three months compared to the March-May (MAM) and June-August (JJA) seasons. Temperature forecasts are skillful up to a minimum three months lead-time in all seasons, while the rsds is less skillful. ROCSS analyses indicate high skill in simulation of upper- and lower-tercile forecasts compared to simulation of the middle-terciles. Upper- and lower-tercile precipitation forecasts are 20-80% better than climatology over a larger area at 0-3 month lead-time; tas forecasts are 40-100% better at shorter lead-times while rsds forecasts are less skillful in all seasons. The forecast system captures manifestations of strong El Niño and La Niña years in terms of precipitation but the skill scores are region dependent.

  12. A Kalman-filter bias correction of ozone deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts

    SciTech Connect

    Monache, L D; Grell, G A; McKeen, S; Wilczak, J; Pagowski, M O; Peckham, S; Stull, R; McHenry, J; McQueen, J

    2006-03-20

    Kalman filtering (KF) is used to postprocess numerical-model output to estimate systematic errors in surface ozone forecasts. It is implemented with a recursive algorithm that updates its estimate of future ozone-concentration bias by using past forecasts and observations. KF performance is tested for three types of ozone forecasts: deterministic, ensemble-averaged, and probabilistic forecasts. Eight photochemical models were run for 56 days during summer 2004 over northeastern USA and southern Canada as part of the International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation New England Air Quality (AQ) Study. The raw and KF-corrected predictions are compared with ozone measurements from the Aerometric Information Retrieval Now data set, which includes roughly 360 surface stations. The completeness of the data set allowed a thorough sensitivity test of key KF parameters. It is found that the KF improves forecasts of ozone-concentration magnitude and the ability to predict rare events, both for deterministic and ensemble-averaged forecasts. It also improves the ability to predict the daily maximum ozone concentration, and reduces the time lag between the forecast and observed maxima. For this case study, KF considerably improves the predictive skill of probabilistic forecasts of ozone concentration greater than thresholds of 10 to 50 ppbv, but it degrades it for thresholds of 70 to 90 ppbv. Moreover, KF considerably reduces probabilistic forecast bias. The significance of KF postprocessing and ensemble-averaging is that they are both effective for real-time AQ forecasting. KF reduces systematic errors, whereas ensemble-averaging reduces random errors. When combined they produce the best overall forecast.

  13. On the Value of Climate Elasticity Indices to Assess the Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Projection using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirel, Mehmet; Moradkhani, Hamid

    2015-04-01

    Changes in two climate elasticity indices, i.e. temperature and precipitation elasticity of streamflow, were investigated using an ensemble of bias corrected CMIP5 dataset as forcing to two hydrologic models. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) hydrologic models, were calibrated at 1/16 degree resolution and the simulated streamflow was routed to the basin outlet of interest. We estimated precipitation and temperature elasticity of streamflow from: (1) observed streamflow; (2) simulated streamflow by VIC and SAC-SMA models using observed climate for the current climate (1963-2003); (3) simulated streamflow using simulated climate from 10 GCM - CMIP5 dataset for the future climate (2010-2099) including two concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and two downscaled climate products (BCSD and MACA). The streamflow sensitivity to long-term (e.g., 30-year) average annual changes in temperature and precipitation is estimated for three periods i.e. 2010-40, 2040-70 and 2070-99. We compared the results of the three cases to reflect on the value of precipitation and temperature indices to assess the climate change impacts on Columbia River streamflow. Moreover, these three cases for two models are used to assess the effects of different uncertainty sources (model forcing, model structure and different pathways) on the two climate elasticity indices.

  14. The total probabilities from high-resolution ensemble forecasting of floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

    2015-04-01

    Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used in meteorological modelling, to give an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. As meteorological ensemble forecasts often show some bias and dispersion errors, there is a need for calibration and post-processing of the ensembles. Typical methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). To make optimal predictions of floods along the stream network in hydrology, we can easily use the ensemble members as input to the hydrological models. However, some of the post-processing methods will need modifications when regionalizing the forecasts outside the calibration locations, as done by Hemri et al. (2013). We present a method for spatial regionalization of the post-processed forecasts based on EMOS and top-kriging (Skøien et al., 2006). We will also look into different methods for handling the non-normality of runoff and the effect on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev

  15. Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

    2012-12-01

    This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

  16. Forecasting the Solar photospheric magnetic field using solar flux transport model and local ensemble Kalman filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate forecasting the solar photospheric magnetic field distribution play an important role in the estimates of the inner boundary conditions of the coronal and solar wind model. Forecasting solar photospheric magnetic field using the solar flux transport (SFT) model can achieve an acceptable match to the actual field. The observations from ground-based or spacecraft instruments can be assimilated to update the modeled flux. The local ensemble Kalman filtering (LEnKF) method is utilized to improve forecasts and characterize their uncertainty by propagating the SFT model with different model parameters forward in time to control the evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic field. Optimal assimilation of measured data into the ensemble produces an improvement in the fit of the forecast to the actual field. Our approach offers a method to improve operational forecasting of the solar photospheric magnetic field. The LEnKF method also allows sensitivity analysis of the SFT model to noise and uncertainty within the physical representation.

  17. Forecasting the solar photospheric magnetic field using solar flux transport model and local ensemble Kalman filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Ying; Du, Aimin; Feng, Xueshang

    2015-04-01

    Accurate forecasting the solar photospheric magnetic field distribution play an important role in the estimates of the inner boundary conditions of the coronal and solar wind model. Forecasting solar photospheric magnetic field using the solar flux transport (SFT) model can achieve an acceptable match to the actual field. The observations from ground-based or spacecraft instruments can be assimilated to update the modeled flux. The local ensemble Kalman filtering (LEnKF) method is utilized to improve forecasts and characterize their uncertainty by propagating the SFT model with different model parameters forward in time to control the evolution of the solar photospheric magnetic field. Optimal assimilation of measured data into the ensemble produces an improvement in the fit of the forecast to the actual field. Our approach offers a method to improve operational forecasting of the solar photospheric magnetic field. The LEnKF method also allows sensitivity analysis of the SFT model to noise and uncertainty within the physical representation.

  18. Coupling ensemble weather predictions based on TIGGE database with Grid-Xinanjiang model for flood forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, H.-J.; Zhao, L.-N.; He, Y.; Li, Z.-J.; Wetterhall, F.; Cloke, H. L.; Pappenberger, F.; Manful, D.

    2011-02-01

    The incorporation of numerical weather predictions (NWP) into a flood forecasting system can increase forecast lead times from a few hours to a few days. A single NWP forecast from a single forecast centre, however, is insufficient as it involves considerable non-predictable uncertainties and lead to a high number of false alarms. The availability of global ensemble numerical weather prediction systems through the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble' (TIGGE) offers a new opportunity for flood forecast. The Grid-Xinanjiang distributed hydrological model, which is based on the Xinanjiang model theory and the topographical information of each grid cell extracted from the Digital Elevation Model (DEM), is coupled with ensemble weather predictions based on the TIGGE database (CMC, CMA, ECWMF, UKMO, NCEP) for flood forecast. This paper presents a case study using the coupled flood forecasting model on the Xixian catchment (a drainage area of 8826 km2) located in Henan province, China. A probabilistic discharge is provided as the end product of flood forecast. Results show that the association of the Grid-Xinanjiang model and the TIGGE database gives a promising tool for an early warning of flood events several days ahead.

  19. Determining optimal clothing ensembles based on weather forecasts, with particular reference to outdoor winter military activities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morabito, Marco; Pavlinic, Daniela Z.; Crisci, Alfonso; Capecchi, Valerio; Orlandini, Simone; Mekjavic, Igor B.

    2011-07-01

    Military and civil defense personnel are often involved in complex activities in a variety of outdoor environments. The choice of appropriate clothing ensembles represents an important strategy to establish the success of a military mission. The main aim of this study was to compare the known clothing insulation of the garment ensembles worn by soldiers during two winter outdoor field trials (hike and guard duty) with the estimated optimal clothing thermal insulations recommended to maintain thermoneutrality, assessed by using two different biometeorological procedures. The overall aim was to assess the applicability of such biometeorological procedures to weather forecast systems, thereby developing a comprehensive biometeorological tool for military operational forecast purposes. Military trials were carried out during winter 2006 in Pokljuka (Slovenia) by Slovene Armed Forces personnel. Gastrointestinal temperature, heart rate and environmental parameters were measured with portable data acquisition systems. The thermal characteristics of the clothing ensembles worn by the soldiers, namely thermal resistance, were determined with a sweating thermal manikin. Results showed that the clothing ensemble worn by the military was appropriate during guard duty but generally inappropriate during the hike. A general under-estimation of the biometeorological forecast model in predicting the optimal clothing insulation value was observed and an additional post-processing calibration might further improve forecast accuracy. This study represents the first step in the development of a comprehensive personalized biometeorological forecast system aimed at improving recommendations regarding the optimal thermal insulation of military garment ensembles for winter activities.

  20. Post-processing of multi-model ensemble river discharge forecasts using censored EMOS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

    2014-05-01

    When forecasting water levels and river discharge, ensemble weather forecasts are used as meteorological input to hydrologic process models. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the input ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the output ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, statistical post-processing is required in order to achieve calibrated and sharp predictions. Standard post-processing methods such as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) that have their origins in meteorological forecasting are now increasingly being used in hydrologic applications. Here we consider two sub-catchments of River Rhine, for which the forecasting system of the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) uses runoff data that are censored below predefined thresholds. To address this methodological challenge, we develop a censored EMOS method that is tailored to such data. The censored EMOS forecast distribution can be understood as a mixture of a point mass at the censoring threshold and a continuous part based on a truncated normal distribution. Parameter estimates of the censored EMOS model are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over the training dataset. Model fitting on Box-Cox transformed data allows us to take account of the positive skewness of river discharge distributions. In order to achieve realistic forecast scenarios over an entire range of lead-times, there is a need for multivariate extensions. To this end, we smooth the marginal parameter estimates over lead-times. In order to obtain realistic scenarios of discharge evolution over time, the marginal distributions have to be linked with each other. To this end, the multivariate dependence structure can either be adopted from the raw ensemble like in Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC), or be estimated from observations in a training period. The censored EMOS model has been applied to multi-model ensemble forecasts issued on a

  1. The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast System (ExREF): Its Use in NWS Forecast Operations and Preliminary Verification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reynolds, David; Rasch, William; Kozlowski, Daniel; Burks, Jason; Zavodsky, Bradley; Bernardet, Ligia; Jankov, Isidora; Albers, Steve

    2014-01-01

    The Experimental Regional Ensemble Forecast (ExREF) system is a tool for the development and testing of new Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methodologies. ExREF is run in near-realtime by the Global Systems Division (GSD) of the NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and its products are made available through a website, an ftp site, and via the Unidata Local Data Manager (LDM). The ExREF domain covers most of North America and has 9-km horizontal grid spacing. The ensemble has eight members, all employing WRF-ARW. The ensemble uses a variety of initial conditions from LAPS and the Global Forecasting System (GFS) and multiple boundary conditions from the GFS ensemble. Additionally, a diversity of physical parameterizations is used to increase ensemble spread and to account for the uncertainty in forecasting extreme precipitation events. ExREF has been a component of the Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) NWP suite in the 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 winters. A smaller domain covering just the West Coast was created to minimize band-width consumption for the NWS. This smaller domain has and is being distributed to the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office and California Nevada River Forecast Center in Sacramento, California, where it is ingested into the Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS I and II) to provide guidance on the forecasting of extreme precipitation events. This paper will review the cooperative effort employed by NOAA ESRL, NASA SPoRT (Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center), and the NWS to facilitate the ingest and display of ExREF data utilizing the AWIPS I and II D2D and GFE (Graphical Software Editor) software. Within GFE is a very useful verification software package called BoiVer that allows the NWS to utilize the River Forecast Center's 4 km gridded QPE to compare with all operational NWP models 6-hr QPF along with the ExREF mean 6-hr QPF so the forecasters can build confidence in the use of the

  2. A novel hybrid ensemble learning paradigm for tourism forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shabri, Ani

    2015-02-01

    In this paper, a hybrid forecasting model based on Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) is proposed to forecast tourism demand. This methodology first decomposes the original visitor arrival series into several Intrinsic Model Function (IMFs) components and one residual component by EMD technique. Then, IMFs components and the residual components is forecasted respectively using GMDH model whose input variables are selected by using Partial Autocorrelation Function (PACF). The final forecasted result for tourism series is produced by aggregating all the forecasted results. For evaluating the performance of the proposed EMD-GMDH methodologies, the monthly data of tourist arrivals from Singapore to Malaysia are used as an illustrative example. Empirical results show that the proposed EMD-GMDH model outperforms the EMD-ARIMA as well as the GMDH and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models without time series decomposition.

  3. CEREF: A hybrid data-driven model for forecasting annual streamflow from a socio-hydrological system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Hongbo; Singh, Vijay P.; Wang, Bin; Yu, Yinghao

    2016-09-01

    Hydrological forecasting is complicated by flow regime alterations in a coupled socio-hydrologic system, encountering increasingly non-stationary, nonlinear and irregular changes, which make decision support difficult for future water resources management. Currently, many hybrid data-driven models, based on the decomposition-prediction-reconstruction principle, have been developed to improve the ability to make predictions of annual streamflow. However, there exist many problems that require further investigation, the chief among which is the direction of trend components decomposed from annual streamflow series and is always difficult to ascertain. In this paper, a hybrid data-driven model was proposed to capture this issue, which combined empirical mode decomposition (EMD), radial basis function neural networks (RBFNN), and external forces (EF) variable, also called the CEREF model. The hybrid model employed EMD for decomposition and RBFNN for intrinsic mode function (IMF) forecasting, and determined future trend component directions by regression with EF as basin water demand representing the social component in the socio-hydrologic system. The Wuding River basin was considered for the case study, and two standard statistical measures, root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), were used to evaluate the performance of CEREF model and compare with other models: the autoregressive (AR), RBFNN and EMD-RBFNN. Results indicated that the CEREF model had lower RMSE and MAE statistics, 42.8% and 7.6%, respectively, than did other models, and provided a superior alternative for forecasting annual runoff in the Wuding River basin. Moreover, the CEREF model can enlarge the effective intervals of streamflow forecasting compared to the EMD-RBFNN model by introducing the water demand planned by the government department to improve long-term prediction accuracy. In addition, we considered the high-frequency component, a frequent subject of concern in EMD

  4. Investigating the interactions between data assimilation and post-processing in hydrological ensemble forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bourgin, François; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Thirel, Guillaume; Andreassian, Vazken

    2015-04-01

    Statistical post-processing and data assimilation (also called real-time model updating in the engineering community), although generally dealt with separately, can be intrinsically related in the hydrological forecasting framework. Both represent techniques that may be used in a forecasting system to improve the quality of the forecasts (i.e., to provide more accurate and reliable forecasts) and to, ultimately, enhance the usefulness of the forecasts in decision-making. In this study, we investigate how data assimilation and post-processing contribute, either separately or together, to the skill of a hydrological ensemble forecasting system. Based on a set of 202 unregulated catchments spread over France, we compare four forecasting options: without data assimilation and post-processing, without data assimilation but with post-processing, with data assimilation but without post-processing, and with both data assimilation and post-processing. A short-range meteorological ensemble prediction system, the Météo-France PEARP EPS, and the GRP hydrological model, a continuous, lumped storage-type model specifically designed for flood forecasting, were used to produce hourly hydrological ensemble forecasts. The data assimilation procedure used exploits the last available observed discharge to directly update the routing store state of the hydrological model, and the last relative error to correct the model output with a multiplicative coefficient. For post-processing, we used a hydrological uncertainty processor (HUP) that assesses model simulation uncertainties and compute empirical uncertainty bounds to flow simulations. Results indicate that both strategies have complementary effects. Data assimilation has mainly a very positive effect on forecast accuracy. Its impact however decreases with increasing lead time. Post-processing, by accounting specifically for hydrological uncertainty, has a very positive and longer lasting effect on forecast reliability. As a

  5. Hydrological ensemble forecasting in mesoscale catchments: Sensitivity to initial conditions and value of reforecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fundel, Felix; Zappa, Massimiliano

    2011-09-01

    Hydrological forecasts can benefit from model climatologies compiled from long, consistent, retrospective forecasts (reforecasts). Typical areas of application include the estimation of return periods for extreme events, the detection of model deficiencies, such as systematic errors or the calibration of current forecasts using the reforecasts, and suitable observations. One difficulty when creating long reforecasts is the availability of good states for the model initialization, as a sufficiently dense network of meteorological observations is rarely available in most catchments for a long period. With this study, the creation of forecast and reforecasts in such catchments is motivated by considering two aspects: first, a comparison where it is shown that hydrological forecasts benefit most from high-quality initial conditions on the basis of local observations, however, less accurate initial conditions using ERA-interim reanalysis are also sufficient to provide skillful hydrological forecasts useful for many users. Second, we demonstrate that hydrological reforecasts compiled without long-term meteorological observations have an additional value, e.g., they allow for more skillful runoff forecasts. Utilizing those reforecasts can compensate for forecast errors induced by less accurate initializations. For this study, hourly hydrological reforecasts, based on the PREcipitation-Runoff-EVApotranspiration HRU Model (PREVAH) were used, with an 18 year long, five-member global ensemble reforecast data set from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Variable Resolution Ensemble Prediction System (VarEPS) as forcing for lead times up to 10 days. Three mesoscale catchments of different characteristics in the Swiss Alps were analyzed.

  6. Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Chengfei; Zhi, Xiefei; You, Qinglong; Song, Bin; Fraedrich, Klaus

    2015-08-01

    This study conducted 24- to 72-h multi-model ensemble forecasts to explore the tracks and intensities (central mean sea level pressure) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Forecast data for the northwestern Pacific basin in 2010 and 2011 were selected from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble project. The Kalman Filter was employed to conduct the TC forecasts, along with the ensemble mean and super-ensemble for comparison. The following results were obtained: (1) The statistical-dynamic Kalman Filter, in which recent observations are given more importance and model weighting coefficients are adjusted over time, produced quite different results from that of the super-ensemble. (2) The Kalman Filter reduced the TC mean absolute track forecast error by approximately 50, 80 and 100 km in the 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts, respectively, compared with the best individual model (ECMWF). Also, the intensity forecasts were improved by the Kalman Filter to some extent in terms of average intensity deviation (AID) and correlation coefficients with reanalysis intensity data. Overall, the Kalman Filter technique performed better compared to multi-models, the ensemble mean, and the super-ensemble in 3-day forecasts. The implication of this study is that this technique appears to be a very promising statistical-dynamic method for multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs.

  7. On the performance of updating Stochastic Dynamic Programming policy using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction in a snow-covered region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martin, A.; Pascal, C.; Leconte, R.

    2014-12-01

    Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) is known to be an effective technique to find the optimal operating policy of hydropower systems. In order to improve the performance of SDP, this project evaluates the impact of re-updating the policy at every time step by using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP). We present a case study of the Kemano's hydropower system on the Nechako River in British Columbia, Canada. Managed by Rio Tinto Alcan (RTA), this system is subject to large streamflow volumes in spring due to important amount of snow depth during the winter season. Therefore, the operating policy should not only maximize production but also minimize the risk of flooding. The hydrological behavior of the system is simulated with CEQUEAU, a distributed and deterministic hydrological model developed by the Institut national de la recherche scientifique - Eau, Terre et Environnement (INRS-ETE) in Quebec, Canada. On each decision time step, CEQUEAU is used to generate ESP scenarios based on historical meteorological sequences and the current state of the hydrological model. These scenarios are used into the SDP to optimize the new release policy for the next time steps. This routine is then repeated over the entire simulation period. Results are compared with those obtained by using SDP on historical inflow scenarios.

  8. An ensemble forecast system for prediction of Atlantic-UK wind waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunney, Chris; Saulter, Andy

    2015-12-01

    Ensemble prediction systems (EPS) provide a numerical method for determining uncertainty associated with forecasts of environmental conditions. A system is presented that has been designed to quantify uncertainties in short range (up to 7 days ahead) wave forecasts for the Atlantic Ocean and shelf seas around the UK. Variability in the wave ensemble is primarily introduced via wind forcing taken from an Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter based atmospheric EPS. Restart files for each member in the wave ensemble use a short range forecast from a previous run of the same member, in order to retain spread in initial conditions. Wave model run times were optimised through the choice of source term physics scheme and application of a spherical multi-cell grid. Verification of the wave-EPS shows good overall performance, since a substantial component of ensemble under-spread can be attributed to observation errors. Systematic biases, relating to the choice of source term, are noted when statistics are broken down regionally and have a major impact on the quality of the forecasts at short lead times, when spread is limited.

  9. Impact of improved meteorological forcing, profile of soil hydraulic conductivity and data assimilation on an operational Hydrological Ensemble Forecast System over France

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Coustau, Mathieu; Rousset-Regimbeau, Fabienne; Thirel, Guillaume; Habets, Florence; Janet, Bruno; Martin, Eric; de Saint-Aubin, Céline; Soubeyroux, Jean-Michel

    2015-06-01

    A Hydrological Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) known as SIMPE has been run over France in real time by Météo-France since 2004. The system combines the 51-member, 10-day ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at a 1.5° resolution with the ISBA-MODCOU physically-based distributed hydrological model to provide streamflow forecasts over France. The initial conditions for all the HEFS runs are provided by SIM; i.e., the ISBA-MODCOU model forced by the outputs of the mesoscale meteorological analysis system SAFRAN. A previous study introduced and tested two improvements of this system over a past period. These modifications consisted of an improved representation of the profile of hydraulic conductivity and the implementation of a data assimilation subsystem. The purpose of the present study was to test the HEFS and its two modifications in operational mode, with the new higher-resolution ECMWF EPS atmospheric forcing at 0.25° resolution, available in real time on the Météo-France database, and with less observed discharge available for the data assimilation subsystem. The new ISBA physics scheme led to a notable improvement in the discharge simulation in western and northeastern France, where no aquifers were simulated by the MODCOU model. This improvement was not impacted by real-time conditions. Likewise, the improvement resulting from the data assimilation system applied over France was not significantly affected by real-time conditions. The propagation of the data assimilation correction to gauging stations located upstream or downstream of the assimilated stations limited the deterioration of forecasted streamflow due to real-time conditions. Finally, the ECMWF EPS high-resolution atmospheric forcing had a significant impact on the streamflow forecasts for small catchments, which increased with lead time.

  10. The assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble for business risk forecasting and an implementation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Hui; Hong, Lu-Yao; Zhou, Qing; Yu, Hai-Jie

    2015-08-01

    The business failure of numerous companies results in financial crises. The high social costs associated with such crises have made people to search for effective tools for business risk prediction, among which, support vector machine is very effective. Several modelling means, including single-technique modelling, hybrid modelling, and ensemble modelling, have been suggested in forecasting business risk with support vector machine. However, existing literature seldom focuses on the general modelling frame for business risk prediction, and seldom investigates performance differences among different modelling means. We reviewed researches on forecasting business risk with support vector machine, proposed the general assisted prediction modelling frame with hybridisation and ensemble (APMF-WHAE), and finally, investigated the use of principal components analysis, support vector machine, random sampling, and group decision, under the general frame in forecasting business risk. Under the APMF-WHAE frame with support vector machine as the base predictive model, four specific predictive models were produced, namely, pure support vector machine, a hybrid support vector machine involved with principal components analysis, a support vector machine ensemble involved with random sampling and group decision, and an ensemble of hybrid support vector machine using group decision to integrate various hybrid support vector machines on variables produced from principle components analysis and samples from random sampling. The experimental results indicate that hybrid support vector machine and ensemble of hybrid support vector machines were able to produce dominating performance than pure support vector machine and support vector machine ensemble.

  11. Using ensemble NWP wind power forecasts to improve national power system management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cannon, D.; Brayshaw, D.; Methven, J.; Coker, P.; Lenaghan, D.

    2014-12-01

    National power systems are becoming increasingly sensitive to atmospheric variability as generation from wind (and other renewables) increases. As such, the days-ahead predictability of wind power has significant implications for power system management. At this time horizon, power system operators plan transmission line outages for maintenance. In addition, forecast users begin to form backup strategies to account for the uncertainty in wind power predictions. Under-estimating this uncertainty could result in a failure to meet system security standards, or in the worst instance, a shortfall in total electricity supply. On the other hand, overly conservative assumptions about the forecast uncertainty incur costs associated with the unnecessary holding of reserve power. Using the power system of Great Britain (GB) as an example, we construct time series of GB-total wind power output using wind speeds from either reanalyses or global weather forecasts. To validate the accuracy of these data sets, wind power reconstructions using reanalyses and forecast analyses over a recent period are compared to measured GB-total power output. The results are found to be highly correlated on time scales greater than around 6 hours. Results are presented using ensemble wind power forecasts from several national and international forecast centres (obtained through TIGGE). Firstly, the skill with which global ensemble forecasts can represent the uncertainty in the GB-total power output at up to 10 days ahead is quantified. Following this, novel ensemble forecast metrics are developed to improve estimates of forecast uncertainty within the context of power system operations, thus enabling the development of more cost effective strategies. Finally, the predictability of extreme events such as prolonged low wind periods or rapid changes in wind power output are examined in detail. These events, if poorly forecast, induce high stress scenarios that could threaten the security of the power

  12. Using oceanic-atmospheric oscillations for long lead-time streamflow forecasting in the Upper Colorado River Basin

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2007-12-01

    In the recent past, oceanic-atmospheric oscillations have been used successfully for long lead-time streamflow forecasting. Herein, we present a data-driven model, Support Vector Machine (SVM) for the long lead-time streamflow forecast incorporating oceanic-atmospheric oscillations. The SVM is based on Statistical Learning Theory that uses a hypothesis space of linear functions based on Kernel approach and can be used to predict a quantity forward in time based on training that uses past data. The principal strength of SVM lies in minimizing the empirical classification error and maximizing the geometric margin by solving inverse problems. The SVMs are considered superior to the Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) due to the tendency of formulating a quadratic optimization problem which ensures a global optimum that is found missing in the traditional ANN approach. The SVM model was applied to four unimpaired gages in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). The streamflow data for the selected gages was used from 1906¡§C2004. Annual oceanic-atmospheric indexes comprising of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) for a period of 1906¡§C2001 were used to generate streamflow volumes for three years ahead. The SVM model was trained with 86 years of data (1906¡§C1991) and tested for 10 years of data (1992-2001). The testing criteria used for the model effectiveness was based on correlation coefficient r, root means square error (RMSE) and nash sutcliffe efficiency coefficient e. Predictions during the testing phase showed a good agreement with measured streamflow volumes for the selected gages in UCRB. Rigorous sensitivity analysis was performed to evaluate the effect of individual oscillation. The results indicated a strong signal for NAO and ENSO indexes as compared to PDO and AMO indexes for the long lead-time streamflow forecast. The oceanic

  13. Dynamics and Predictability of Hurricane Humberto (2007) Revealed from Ensemble Analysis and Forecasting

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sippel, Jason A.; Zhang, Fuqing

    2009-01-01

    This study uses short-range ensemble forecasts initialized with an Ensemble-Kalman filter to study the dynamics and predictability of Hurricane Humberto, which made landfall along the Texas coast in 2007. Statistical correlation is used to determine why some ensemble members strengthen the incipient low into a hurricane and others do not. It is found that deep moisture and high convective available potential energy (CAPE) are two of the most important factors for the genesis of Humberto. Variations in CAPE result in as much difference (ensemble spread) in the final hurricane intensity as do variations in deep moisture. CAPE differences here are related to the interaction between the cyclone and a nearby front, which tends to stabilize the lower troposphere in the vicinity of the circulation center. This subsequently weakens convection and slows genesis. Eventually the wind-induced surface heat exchange mechanism and differences in landfall time result in even larger ensemble spread. 1

  14. A component-resampling approach for estimating probability distributions from small forecast ensembles

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dettinger, M.

    2006-01-01

    In many meteorological and climatological modeling applications, the availability of ensembles of predictions containing very large numbers of members would substantially ease statistical analyses and validations. This study describes and demonstrates an objective approach for generating large ensembles of "additional" realizations from smaller ensembles, where the additional ensemble members share important first-and second-order statistical characteristics and some dynamic relations within the original ensemble. By decomposing the original ensemble members into assuredly independent time-series components (using a form of principal component decomposition) that can then be resampled randomly and recombined, the component-resampling procedure generates additional time series that follow the large and small scale structures in the original ensemble members, without requiring any tuning by the user. The method is demonstrated by applications to operational medium-range weather forecast ensembles from a single NCEP weather model and application to a multi-model, multi-emission-scenarios ensemble of 21st Century climate-change projections. ?? Springer 2006.

  15. Skill Assessment of National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shukla, S.; Hoell, A.; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, C. C.; Robertson, F. R.

    2014-12-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as 2011, part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at a seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However, seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges including lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts. The National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME); a state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system is potentially a promising tool for drought prediction in this region. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ forecasts ensemble members. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any of the individual model. However, thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like East Africa has largely been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons of the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September, and October-November-December). Additionally we describe a hybrid approach that combines statistical method with NMME forecasts to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts skill is lacking. This approach uses constructed analog method to improve NMME's March-April-May rainfall forecast skill in East Africa.

  16. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  17. Seasonal Drought Prediction in East Africa: Can National Multi-Model Ensemble Forecasts Help?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shukla, Shraddhanand; Roberts, J. B.; Funk, Christopher; Robertson, F. R.; Hoell, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    The increasing food and water demands of East Africa's growing population are stressing the region's inconsistent water resources and rain-fed agriculture. As recently as in 2011 part of this region underwent one of the worst famine events in its history. Timely and skillful drought forecasts at seasonal scale for this region can inform better water and agro-pastoral management decisions, support optimal allocation of the region's water resources, and mitigate socio-economic losses incurred by droughts. However seasonal drought prediction in this region faces several challenges. Lack of skillful seasonal rainfall forecasts; the focus of this presentation, is one of those major challenges. In the past few decades, major strides have been taken towards improvement of seasonal scale dynamical climate forecasts. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction's (NCEP) National Multi-model Ensemble (NMME) is one such state-of-the-art dynamical climate forecast system. The NMME incorporates climate forecasts from 6+ fully coupled dynamical models resulting in 100+ ensemble member forecasts. Recent studies have indicated that in general NMME offers improvement over forecasts from any single model. However thus far the skill of NMME for forecasting rainfall in a vulnerable region like the East Africa has been unexplored. In this presentation we report findings of a comprehensive analysis that examines the strength and weakness of NMME in forecasting rainfall at seasonal scale in East Africa for all three of the prominent seasons for the region. (i.e. March-April-May, July-August-September and October-November- December). Simultaneously we also describe hybrid approaches; that combine statistical approaches with NMME forecasts; to improve rainfall forecast skill in the region when raw NMME forecasts lack in skill.

  18. Challenges in communicating and using ensemble forecasts in operational flood risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nobert, Sébastien; Demeritt, David; Cloke, Hannah

    2010-05-01

    Following trends in operational weather forecasting, where ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are now increasingly the norm, a number of hydrological and flood forecasting centres internationally have begun to experiment with using similar ensemble methods. Most of the research to date has focused on the substantial technical challenges of developing coupled rainfall-runoff systems to represent the full cascade of uncertainties involved in predicting future flooding. As a consequence much less attention has been given to the communication and eventual use of EPS flood forecasts. Thus, this talk addresses the general understanding and communicative challenges in using EPS in operational flood forecasting. Drawing on a set of 48 semi-structured interviews conducted with flood forecasters, meteorologists and civil protection authorities (CPAs) dispersed across 17 European countries, this presentation pulls out some of the tensions between the scientific development of EPS and their application in flood risk management. The scientific uncertainties about whether or not a flood will occur comprise only part of the wider ‘decision' uncertainties faced by those charged with flood protection, who must also consider questions about how warnings they issue will subsequently be interpreted. By making those first order scientific uncertainties more explicit, ensemble forecasts can sometimes complicate, rather than clarify, the second order decision uncertainties they are supposed to inform.

  19. Potentialities of ensemble strategies for flood forecasting over the Milano urban area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravazzani, Giovanni; Amengual, Arnau; Ceppi, Alessandro; Homar, Víctor; Romero, Romu; Lombardi, Gabriele; Mancini, Marco

    2016-08-01

    Analysis of ensemble forecasting strategies, which can provide a tangible backing for flood early warning procedures and mitigation measures over the Mediterranean region, is one of the fundamental motivations of the international HyMeX programme. Here, we examine two severe hydrometeorological episodes that affected the Milano urban area and for which the complex flood protection system of the city did not completely succeed. Indeed, flood damage have exponentially increased during the last 60 years, due to industrial and urban developments. Thus, the improvement of the Milano flood control system needs a synergism between structural and non-structural approaches. First, we examine how land-use changes due to urban development have altered the hydrological response to intense rainfalls. Second, we test a flood forecasting system which comprises the Flash-flood Event-based Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff Transformation, including Water Balance (FEST-WB) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models. Accurate forecasts of deep moist convection and extreme precipitation are difficult to be predicted due to uncertainties arising from the numeric weather prediction (NWP) physical parameterizations and high sensitivity to misrepresentation of the atmospheric state; however, two hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) have been designed to explicitly cope with uncertainties in the initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBCs) and physical parameterizations of the NWP model. No substantial differences in skill have been found between both ensemble strategies when considering an enhanced diversity of IC/LBCs for the perturbed initial conditions ensemble. Furthermore, no additional benefits have been found by considering more frequent LBCs in a mixed physics ensemble, as ensemble spread seems to be reduced. These findings could help to design the most appropriate ensemble strategies before these hydrometeorological extremes, given the computational

  20. Wave ensemble forecast in the Western Mediterranean Sea, application to an early warning system.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pallares, Elena; Hernandez, Hector; Moré, Jordi; Espino, Manuel; Sairouni, Abdel

    2015-04-01

    The Western Mediterranean Sea is a highly heterogeneous and variable area, as is reflected on the wind field, the current field, and the waves, mainly in the first kilometers offshore. As a result of this variability, the wave forecast in these regions is quite complicated to perform, usually with some accuracy problems during energetic storm events. Moreover, is in these areas where most of the economic activities take part, including fisheries, sailing, tourism, coastal management and offshore renewal energy platforms. In order to introduce an indicator of the probability of occurrence of the different sea states and give more detailed information of the forecast to the end users, an ensemble wave forecast system is considered. The ensemble prediction systems have already been used in the last decades for the meteorological forecast; to deal with the uncertainties of the initial conditions and the different parametrizations used in the models, which may introduce some errors in the forecast, a bunch of different perturbed meteorological simulations are considered as possible future scenarios and compared with the deterministic forecast. In the present work, the SWAN wave model (v41.01) has been implemented for the Western Mediterranean sea, forced with wind fields produced by the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). The wind fields includes a deterministic forecast (also named control), between 11 and 21 ensemble members, and some intelligent member obtained from the ensemble, as the mean of all the members. Four buoys located in the study area, moored in coastal waters, have been used to validate the results. The outputs include all the time series, with a forecast horizon of 8 days and represented in spaghetti diagrams, the spread of the system and the probability at different thresholds. The main goal of this exercise is to be able to determine the degree of the uncertainty of the wave forecast, meaningful

  1. The skill of seasonal ensemble low-flow forecasts in the Moselle River for three different hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirel, M. C.; Booij, M. J.; Hoekstra, A. Y.

    2015-01-01

    This paper investigates the skill of 90-day low-flow forecasts using two conceptual hydrological models and one data-driven model based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for the Moselle River. The three models, i.e. HBV, GR4J and ANN-Ensemble (ANN-E), all use forecasted meteorological inputs (precipitation P and potential evapotranspiration PET), whereby we employ ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts. We compared low-flow forecasts for five different cases of seasonal meteorological forcing: (1) ensemble P and PET forecasts; (2) ensemble P forecasts and observed climate mean PET; (3) observed climate mean P and ensemble PET forecasts; (4) observed climate mean P and PET and (5) zero P and ensemble PET forecasts as input for the models. The ensemble P and PET forecasts, each consisting of 40 members, reveal the forecast ranges due to the model inputs. The five cases are compared for a lead time of 90 days based on model output ranges, whereas the models are compared based on their skill of low-flow forecasts for varying lead times up to 90 days. Before forecasting, the hydrological models are calibrated and validated for a period of 30 and 20 years respectively. The smallest difference between calibration and validation performance is found for HBV, whereas the largest difference is found for ANN-E. From the results, it appears that all models are prone to over-predict runoff during low-flow periods using ensemble seasonal meteorological forcing. The largest range for 90-day low-flow forecasts is found for the GR4J model when using ensemble seasonal meteorological forecasts as input. GR4J, HBV and ANN-E under-predicted 90-day-ahead low flows in the very dry year 2003 without precipitation data. The results of the comparison of forecast skills with varying lead times show that GR4J is less skilful than ANN-E and HBV. Overall, the uncertainty from ensemble P forecasts has a larger effect on seasonal low-flow forecasts than the uncertainty from ensemble PET

  2. Informing Water Management by Direct Use of Snow Information as Surrogate of Medium-to-Long Range Streamflow Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denaro, S.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.

    2014-12-01

    Medium-to-long range streamflow forecast provide a key assistance in anticipating hydro- climatic adverse events and prompting effective adaptation measures. For instance, accurate medium-long range streamflow forecasts have a great potential to improve water reservoir operation by enabling more efficient allocation of water volumes in time (e.g. via hedging). Unfortunately, these forecasts often lacks reliability and accuracy, especially when low-frequency climate forcing (e.g. ENSO) is not intense enough to improve the forecast lead time (e.g. in Europe), and might be computationally very demanding, In this work, we explore the direct use of both rough snow data (e.g. snow depth) and snow water equivalent estimates as surrogate of medium-to-long range streamflow forecast to inform the operation of a regulated lake. The underlying idea is that snow data contains key information on current and future water availability throughout the snow melting season that might significantly improve the operation's anticipation potential. We adopt a three step methodology: First, we compute the upper bound of the system performance by assuming perfect foresight and we assess the value of additional information as the difference between this ideal solution and current operation. Using input variable selection, we then select the most relevant snow information to explain the release trajectory associated to the upper bound operating policy. Finally, we derive the optimal policy conditioned upon the selected variables by Multi-Objecting Evolutionary Direct Policy Search. The methodology is demonstrated on the snow-dominated Lake Como river basin, in the Italian Alps. Lake Como is a regulated lake primarily used to supply water to a large cultivated area and snowmelt from May-July is the most important contribution to the creation of the seasonal storage. Results show that using raw data or simple SWE estimates can largely improve anticipation capability in the daily operation of

  3. An application of ensemble/multi model approach for wind power production forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandrini, S.; Pinson, P.; Hagedorn, R.; Decimi, G.; Sperati, S.

    2011-02-01

    The wind power forecasts of the 3 days ahead period are becoming always more useful and important in reducing the problem of grid integration and energy price trading due to the increasing wind power penetration. Therefore it's clear that the accuracy of this forecast is one of the most important requirements for a successful application. The wind power forecast applied in this study is based on meteorological models that provide the 3 days ahead wind data. A Model Output Statistic correction is then performed to reduce systematic error caused, for instance, by a wrong representation of surface roughness or topography in the meteorological models. For this purpose a training of a Neural Network (NN) to link directly the forecasted meteorological data and the power data has been performed. One wind farm has been examined located in a mountain area in the south of Italy (Sicily). First we compare the performances of a prediction based on meteorological data coming from a single model with those obtained by the combination of models (RAMS, ECMWF deterministic, LAMI). It is shown that the multi models approach reduces the day-ahead normalized RMSE forecast error (normalized by nominal power) of at least 1% compared to the singles models approach. Finally we have focused on the possibility of using the ensemble model system (EPS by ECMWF) to estimate the hourly, three days ahead, power forecast accuracy. Contingency diagram between RMSE of the deterministic power forecast and the ensemble members spread of wind forecast have been produced. From this first analysis it seems that ensemble spread could be used as an indicator of the forecast's accuracy at least for the first three days ahead period.

  4. Flash flood warnings using the ensemble precipitation forecasting technique: A case study on forecasting floods in Taiwan caused by typhoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Tsun-Hua; Yang, Sheng-Chi; Ho, Jui-Yi; Lin, Gwo-Fong; Hwang, Gong-Do; Lee, Cheng-Shang

    2015-01-01

    A flash flood is an event that develops rapidly. Given early warnings with sufficient lead time, flood forecasting can help people prepare disaster prevention measures. To provide this early warning, a statistics-based flood forecasting model was developed to evaluate the flooding potential in urban areas using ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (the Taiwan Cooperative Precipitation Ensemble Forecast Experiment, TAPEX). The proposed model uses different sources of information, such as (i) the designed capacity of storm sewer systems, (ii) a flood inundation potential database, and (iii) historical flooding observations, to evaluate the potential for flash flooding situations to occur. Using 24-, 48- and 72-h ahead precipitation forecasts from the TAPEX, the proposed model can assess the flooding potential with two levels of risk and at the township scale with a 3-day lead time. The proposed model is applied to Pingtung County, which includes 33 townships and is located in southern Taiwan. A dataset of typhoon storms from 2010 to 2014 was used to evaluate the model performance. The accuracy and threat score for testing events are 0.68 and 0.30, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The accuracy and threat score for training events are 0.82 and 0.31, respectively, with a lead time of 24 h. The model performance decreases when the lead time is extended. However, the model demonstrates its potential as a valuable reference to improve emergency responses to alleviate the loss of lives and property due to flooding.

  5. Comparison of Two Machine Learning Regression Approaches (Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network) Coupled with Wavelet Decomposition to Forecast Monthly Streamflow in Peru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ticlavilca, A. M.; Maslova, I.; McKee, M.

    2011-12-01

    This research presents a modeling approach that incorporates wavelet-based analysis techniques used in statistical signal processing and multivariate machine learning regression to forecast monthly streamflow in Peru. Two machine learning regression approaches, Multivariate Relevance Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network, are compared in terms of performance and robustness. The inputs of the model utilize information of streamflow and Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). The monthly Pacific SST data (from 1950 to 2010) are obtained from the NOAA Climate Prediction Center website. The inputs are decomposed into meaningful components formulated in terms of wavelet multiresolution analysis (MRA). The outputs are the forecasts of streamflow two, four and six months ahead simultaneously. The proposed hybrid modeling approach of wavelet decomposition and machine learning regression can capture sufficient information at meaningful temporal scales to improve the performance of the streamflow forecasts in Peru. A bootstrap analysis is used to explore the robustness of the hybrid modeling approaches.

  6. Combining multiobjective optimization and Bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    WöHling, Thomas; Vrugt, Jasper A.

    2008-12-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multiobjective optimization and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multiobjective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are postprocessed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multiobjective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  7. Ensemble forecasting of potential habitat for three invasive fishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poulos, Helen M.; Chernoff, Barry; Fuller, Pam L.; Butman, David

    2012-01-01

    Aquatic invasive species pose major ecological and economic threats to aquatic ecosystems worldwide via displacement, predation, or hybridization with native species and the alteration of aquatic habitats and hydrologic cycles. Modeling the habitat suitability of alien aquatic species through spatially explicit mapping is an increasingly important risk assessment tool. Habitat modeling also facilitates identification of key environmental variables influencing invasive species distributions. We compared four modeling methods to predict the potential continental United States distributions of northern snakehead Channa argus (Cantor, 1842), round goby Neogobius melanostomus (Pallas, 1814), and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (Valenciennes, 1844) using maximum entropy (Maxent), the genetic algorithm for rule set production (GARP), DOMAIN, and support vector machines (SVM). We used inventory records from the USGS Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database and a geographic information system of 20 climatic and environmental variables to generate individual and ensemble distribution maps for each species. The ensemble maps from our study performed as well as or better than all of the individual models except Maxent. The ensemble and Maxent models produced significantly higher accuracy individual maps than GARP, one-class SVMs, or DOMAIN. The key environmental predictor variables in the individual models were consistent with the tolerances of each species. Results from this study provide insights into which locations and environmental conditions may promote the future spread of invasive fish in the US.

  8. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 2: Forecasting warm conveyor belt situations for aircraft-based field campaigns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Grams, C. M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present the application of interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of ensemble weather predictions to forecasting warm conveyor belt situations during aircraft-based atmospheric research campaigns. Motivated by forecast requirements of the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign, a method to predict 3-D probabilities of the spatial occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) has been developed. Probabilities are derived from Lagrangian particle trajectories computed on the forecast wind fields of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ensemble prediction system. Integration of the method into the 3-D ensemble visualization tool Met.3D, introduced in the first part of this study, facilitates interactive visualization of WCB features and derived probabilities in the context of the ECMWF ensemble forecast. We investigate the sensitivity of the method with respect to trajectory seeding and grid spacing of the forecast wind field. Furthermore, we propose a visual analysis method to quantitatively analyse the contribution of ensemble members to a probability region and, thus, to assist the forecaster in interpreting the obtained probabilities. A case study, revisiting a forecast case from T-NAWDEX-Falcon, illustrates the practical application of Met.3D and demonstrates the use of 3-D and uncertainty visualization for weather forecasting and for planning flight routes in the medium forecast range (3 to 7 days before take-off).

  9. GEOWOW - Benefits of TIGGE ensemble forecast data for the GEOSS community

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zsoter, Ervin

    2014-05-01

    GEOWOW (GEOSS interoperability for Weather, Ocean and Water) is an EU-funded project with the main challenge to improve Earth Observation data discovery, accessibility and exploitability, and to evolve the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) for the benefit of all Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) with focus on Weather, Ocean Ecosystems and Water. There is a particular focus on supporting multi-disciplinary interoperability across different SBAs, including the use of weather forecast ensembles in applications. The weather community in GEOWOW, led by ECMWF, addresses the elements of the GEO Capacity Building Strategy by improving the access to TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) data in which global ensemble predictions from 10 leading global NWP centres are collected in near real-time to support research on ensemble prediction. GEOWOW extends the TIGGE archive with ensemble weather forecasts from limited area models and will build a multi-model ensemble time-series archive (Global and LAM containing data only for specific points) to increase the accessibility of TIGGE for a wider community. GEOWOW work also includes the development and demonstration of (multi-model) products using TIGGE data to support high impact weather forecasting in areas such as tropical cyclone tracks, heavy precipitation events and strong winds. Testing and delivery of these products is in collaboration with participants in the WMO Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP). The SWFDP is a WMO capacity building project which uses a Cascading Forecasting Process to support a basic capability to issue severe weather warnings in developing and least-developed countries. A specific area of work covers the demonstration and documentation of the potential use of TIGGE data in high impact weather forecasting through mainly case studies. Analysed cases include various types of severe weather and different regions - for example rainfall and flooding in West

  10. Intelligent Ensemble Forecasting System of Stock Market Fluctuations Based on Symetric and Asymetric Wavelet Functions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lahmiri, Salim; Boukadoum, Mounir

    2015-08-01

    We present a new ensemble system for stock market returns prediction where continuous wavelet transform (CWT) is used to analyze return series and backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) for processing CWT-based coefficients, determining the optimal ensemble weights, and providing final forecasts. Particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used for finding optimal weights and biases for each BPNN. To capture symmetry/asymmetry in the underlying data, three wavelet functions with different shapes are adopted. The proposed ensemble system was tested on three Asian stock markets: The Hang Seng, KOSPI, and Taiwan stock market data. Three statistical metrics were used to evaluate the forecasting accuracy; including, mean of absolute errors (MAE), root mean of squared errors (RMSE), and mean of absolute deviations (MADs). Experimental results showed that our proposed ensemble system outperformed the individual CWT-ANN models each with different wavelet function. In addition, the proposed ensemble system outperformed the conventional autoregressive moving average process. As a result, the proposed ensemble system is suitable to capture symmetry/asymmetry in financial data fluctuations for better prediction accuracy.

  11. Impact of EOS MLS ozone data on medium-extended range ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheung, J. C. H.; Haigh, J. D.; Jackson, D. R.

    2014-08-01

    As the stratosphere is largely characterized by its ozone abundance, the quality of the ozone field is important for a realistic representation of the stratosphere in weather and climate models. While the stratosphere is directly affected by radiative heating from ozone photodissociation, ozone abundance might also impact the representation of the troposphere since the stratosphere and troposphere are dynamically linked. In this paper, we examine the potential benefits of using ozone data from the Earth Observing System (EOS) Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for medium-extended range tropospheric forecasts in a current numerical weather prediction system. The global component of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System is used, which is run at a resolution of N216 L85 with 24 ensemble members. We compare two scenarios of 31 day forecasts covering the same period, one with the current operational ozone climatology and the other with a monthly mean zonally averaged ozone field computed from the MLS data set. In the extreme case of the Arctic "ozone hole" of March 2011, our results show a general reduction in stratospheric forecast errors in the tropics and Southern Hemisphere as a result of the improved representation of ozone. However, even in such a scenario, where the MLS ozone field is much superior to that of the control, we find that tropospheric forecast errors in the medium-extended range are dominated by the spread of ensemble members and no significant reduction in the root-mean-square forecast errors.

  12. Operational water management of Rijnland water system and pilot of ensemble forecasting system for flood control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Zwan, Rene

    2013-04-01

    The Rijnland water system is situated in the western part of the Netherlands, and is a low-lying area of which 90% is below sea-level. The area covers 1,100 square kilometres, where 1.3 million people live, work, travel and enjoy leisure. The District Water Control Board of Rijnland is responsible for flood defence, water quantity and quality management. This includes design and maintenance of flood defence structures, control of regulating structures for an adequate water level management, and waste water treatment. For water quantity management Rijnland uses, besides an online monitoring network for collecting water level and precipitation data, a real time control decision support system. This decision support system consists of deterministic hydro-meteorological forecasts with a 24-hr forecast horizon, coupled with a control module that provides optimal operation schedules for the storage basin pumping stations. The uncertainty of the rainfall forecast is not forwarded in the hydrological prediction. At this moment 65% of the pumping capacity of the storage basin pumping stations can be automatically controlled by the decision control system. Within 5 years, after renovation of two other pumping stations, the total capacity of 200 m3/s will be automatically controlled. In critical conditions there is a need of both a longer forecast horizon and a probabilistic forecast. Therefore ensemble precipitation forecasts of the ECMWF are already consulted off-line during dry-spells, and Rijnland is running a pilot operational system providing 10-day water level ensemble forecasts. The use of EPS during dry-spells and the findings of the pilot will be presented. Challenges and next steps towards on-line implementation of ensemble forecasts for risk-based operational management of the Rijnland water system will be discussed. An important element in that discussion is the question: will policy and decision makers, operator and citizens adapt this Anticipatory Water

  13. Probabilistic Runoff Forecasting using a Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Verbunt, M.; Walser, A.; Gurtz, J.; Montani, A.; Schär, C.

    2004-12-01

    A high-resolution atmospheric ensemble forecasting system, based on 51 runs of a Limited Area Model (LAM) has been used to make probabilistic runoff forecasts for the Alpine Rhine basin. The operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Ensemble Prediction System (ECMWF EPS) provides the initial and boundary conditions for the LAM integrations with the Local Model (LM) for a 5 day forecasting period. The LM runs in a horizontal resolution of 0.09 degree (10 km) and provides output with an hourly interval. Output from this model is used to drive a distributed hydrological model with a resolution of 500 m and a time-step of one hour. Runoff generation in the Precipitation Runoff EVApotranspiration Hydrotope (PREVAH) model is based on the HBV-model. The model further contains modules, which calculate snow and glacier melt, after a combined radiation and temperature index approach. The case-study investigated is the spring 1999 flood event, when a combination of snowmelt and heavy precipitation caused severe floods in Central Europe. The area investigated is the upper part of the Rhine catchment (34550 km2) in Central Europe. This river catchment, characterized by highly complex topography, has an altitude range from 262 m up to 4225 m a.s.l. The hydrological model component has been calibrated for the period 1997-1998 using ground observations, and validated for 1999-2002. This study focuses on the feasibility of ensemble prediction data for runoff forecasting and addresses the predictability of this flood event. Forecast uncertainties are investigated and runoff predictions from the deterministic forecast are compared with those obtained from probabilistic atmospheric forecasts. Further analyses include the changes in predictability when using different quantities of representative members.

  14. Application of object-oriented verification techniques to ensemble precipitation forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gallus, W.

    2009-04-01

    Both the Method for Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) and Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) object-oriented verification techniques have been used to analyze precipitation forecasts from two sets of ensembles to determine if spread-skill behavior observed using traditional measures can be seen in the object parameters, and to examine several methods of obtaining forecast guidance from the object parameters. One set of ensembles consisted of two 8 member Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model ensembles, one having mixed physics and dynamics with common initial and lateral boundary conditions (Phys) and another using common physics and dynamic core but with perturbed initial and lateral boundary conditions (IC/LBC). Traditional measures had found that spread grows much faster in IC/LBC than in Phys such that although skill and spread initially are as large or larger in Phys than in IC/LBC, after roughly 24 hours, better skill and spread are found in IC/LBC. These measures also reflected the strong diurnal signal of precipitation dominating the central United States during the warm season. The other set of ensembles included 5 members of a 4 km grid spacing WRF ensemble (ENS4) and 5 members of a 20 km WRF ensemble (ENS20). Traditional measures applied to these ensembles suggested that the diurnal signal was better in ENS4 and spread increased more rapidly than in ENS20. Standard deviations (SDs) of four object parameters computed for the first set of ensembles showed the trend of enhanced spread growth in IC/LBC compared to Phys that had been observed in traditional measures, with areal coverage of precipitation exhibiting the greatest growth in spread with time. The two techniques did not produce identical results, although they did show the same general trends. CRA better showed differences between Phys and IC/LBC for SDs of rain rate, while MODE showed more of a difference for SDs of rain volume. A diurnal cycle had some influence on the SDs of all parameters, especially

  15. Ensemble approach to wheat yield forecasting in Ukraine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kussul, Nataliia; Kolotii, Andrii; Skakun, Sergii; Shelestov, Andrii; Kussul, Olga; Kravchenko, Oleksii

    2014-05-01

    Crop yield forecasting is an extremely important component of the agriculture monitoring domain. In our previous study [1], we assessed relative efficiency and feasibility of using an NDVI-based empirical model for winter wheat yield forecasting at oblast level in Ukraine. Though the NDVI-based model provides minimum data requirements, it has some limitations since NDVI is indirectly related just to biomass but not meteorological conditions. Therefore, it is necessary to assess satellite-derived parameters that incorporate meteorology while maintaining the requirement of minimum data inputs. The objective of the proposed paper is several-fold: (i) to assess efficiency of using biophysical satellite-derived parameters for crop yield forecasting for Ukraine and select the optimal ones based on rigorous feature selection procedure; (ii) to assimilate predictions made by models built on various satellite-derived parameters. Two new parameters are considered in the paper: (i) vegetation health index (VHI) at 4 km spatial resolution derived from a series of NOAA satellites; (ii) Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) derived from SPOT-VEGETATION at 1 km spatial resolution. VHI data are provided as weekly composites and FAPAR data are provided as decadal composites. The particular advantage of using VHI is that it incorporates moisture and thermal conditions of vegetation canopy, while FAPAR is directly related to the primary productivity of photosynthesis It is required to find a day of the year for which a parameter is taken and used in the empirical model. For this purpose, a Random Forest feature selection procedure is applied. It is found that VHI and FAPAR values taken in April-May provided the minimum error value when comparing to the official statistics, thus enabling forecasts 2-3 months prior to harvest, and this corresponds to results derived from LOOCV procedure. The best timing for making reliable yield forecasts is nearly the same

  16. Verification of an ensemble prediction system for storm surge forecast in the Adriatic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mel, Riccardo; Lionello, Piero

    2014-12-01

    In the Adriatic Sea, storm surges present a significant threat to Venice and to the flat coastal areas of the northern coast of the basin. Sea level forecast is of paramount importance for the management of daily activities and for operating the movable barriers that are presently being built for the protection of the city. In this paper, an EPS (ensemble prediction system) for operational forecasting of storm surge in the northern Adriatic Sea is presented and applied to a 3-month-long period (October-December 2010). The sea level EPS is based on the HYPSE (hydrostatic Padua Sea elevation) model, which is a standard single-layer nonlinear shallow water model, whose forcings (mean sea level pressure and surface wind fields) are provided by the ensemble members of the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS. Results are verified against observations at five tide gauges located along the Croatian and Italian coasts of the Adriatic Sea. Forecast uncertainty increases with the predicted value of the storm surge and with the forecast lead time. The EMF (ensemble mean forecast) provided by the EPS has a rms (root mean square) error lower than the DF (deterministic forecast), especially for short (up to 3 days) lead times. Uncertainty for short lead times of the forecast and for small storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty of the initial condition of the hydrodynamical model. Uncertainty for large lead times and large storm surges is mainly caused by uncertainty in the meteorological forcings. The EPS spread increases with the rms error of the forecast. For large lead times the EPS spread and the forecast error substantially coincide. However, the EPS spread in this study, which does not account for uncertainty in the initial condition, underestimates the error during the early part of the forecast and for small storm surge values. On the contrary, it overestimates the rms error for large surge values. The PF (probability forecast) of the EPS

  17. Ensemble Statistical Post-Processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing Ozone Forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

    2013-01-01

    An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone

  18. ASCAT soil moisture data assimilation through the Ensemble Kalman Filter for improving streamflow simulation in Mediterranean catchments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loizu, Javier; Massari, Christian; Álvarez-Mozos, Jesús; Casalí, Javier; Goñi, Mikel

    2016-04-01

    Assimilation of Surface Soil Moisture (SSM) observations obtained from remote sensing techniques have been shown to improve streamflow prediction at different time scales of hydrological modeling. Different sensors and methods have been tested for their application in SSM estimation, especially in the microwave region of the electromagnetic spectrum. The available observation devices include passive microwave sensors such as the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observation System (AMSR-E) onboard the Aqua satellite and the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. On the other hand, active microwave systems include Scatterometers (SCAT) onboard the European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1/2) and the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) onboard MetOp-A satellite. Data assimilation (DA) include different techniques that have been applied in hydrology and other fields for decades. These techniques include, among others, Kalman Filtering (KF), Variational Assimilation or Particle Filtering. From the initial KF method, different techniques were developed to suit its application to different systems. The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), extensively applied in hydrological modeling improvement, shows its capability to deal with nonlinear model dynamics without linearizing model equations, as its main advantage. The objective of this study was to investigate whether data assimilation of SSM ASCAT observations, through the EnKF method, could improve streamflow simulation of mediterranean catchments with TOPLATS hydrological complex model. The DA technique was programmed in FORTRAN, and applied to hourly simulations of TOPLATS catchment model. TOPLATS (TOPMODEL-based Land-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme) was applied on its lumped version for two mediterranean catchments of similar size, located in northern Spain (Arga, 741 km2) and central Italy (Nestore, 720 km2). The model performs a separated computation of energy and water balances. In those balances, the soil

  19. Bivariate ensemble model output statistics approach for joint forecasting of wind speed and temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baran, Sándor; Möller, Annette

    2016-06-01

    Forecast ensembles are typically employed to account for prediction uncertainties in numerical weather prediction models. However, ensembles often exhibit biases and dispersion errors, thus they require statistical post-processing to improve their predictive performance. Two popular univariate post-processing models are the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and the ensemble model output statistics (EMOS). In the last few years, increased interest has emerged in developing multivariate post-processing models, incorporating dependencies between weather quantities, such as for example a bivariate distribution for wind vectors or even a more general setting allowing to combine any types of weather variables. In line with a recently proposed approach to model temperature and wind speed jointly by a bivariate BMA model, this paper introduces an EMOS model for these weather quantities based on a bivariate truncated normal distribution. The bivariate EMOS model is applied to temperature and wind speed forecasts of the 8-member University of Washington mesoscale ensemble and the 11-member ALADIN-HUNEPS ensemble of the Hungarian Meteorological Service and its predictive performance is compared to the performance of the bivariate BMA model and a multivariate Gaussian copula approach, post-processing the margins with univariate EMOS. While the predictive skills of the compared methods are similar, the bivariate EMOS model requires considerably lower computation times than the bivariate BMA method.

  20. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting.

    PubMed

    Men, Zhongxian; Yee, Eugene; Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an "optimal" weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

  1. Accounting for Intermittency in Generation of Precipitation Ensembles from Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cong, S.; Herr, H. D.; Wu, L.; Demargne, J.; Duan, Q.; Seo, D.

    2006-05-01

    To generate short-term (1-5 days ahead) ensemble forecasts of precipitation from single-value quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF), the National Weather Service (NWS) is currently using an experimental ensemble precipitation preprocessor at three River Forecast Centers (RFC). The preprocessor is based on modeling of the conditional probability distribution of observed precipitation given QPF in the normal space following the normal quantile transform (NQT). Whereas probably distributions of observed and forecast precipitation are of mixed type with probability mass at zero and continuous probability density for positive amount, currently the NQT is applied to the entire probability distribution. As such, it is very difficult in the current ensemble preprocessor approach to preserve precipitation intermittency explicitly. In this talk, we present an approach that addresses the issue by introducing in the preprocessor formulation the conditional probability of no observed precipitation given positive QPF, where the NQT is applied only to the continuous distribution. This procedure is general and may also be applied to other problems where modeling via NQT of the conditional probability distribution of a discrete-continuous variable is needed.

  2. Ensemble Nonlinear Autoregressive Exogenous Artificial Neural Networks for Short-Term Wind Speed and Power Forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Lien, Fue-Sang; Yang, Zhiling; Liu, Yongqian

    2014-01-01

    Short-term wind speed and wind power forecasts (for a 72 h period) are obtained using a nonlinear autoregressive exogenous artificial neural network (ANN) methodology which incorporates either numerical weather prediction or high-resolution computational fluid dynamics wind field information as an exogenous input. An ensemble approach is used to combine the predictions from many candidate ANNs in order to provide improved forecasts for wind speed and power, along with the associated uncertainties in these forecasts. More specifically, the ensemble ANN is used to quantify the uncertainties arising from the network weight initialization and from the unknown structure of the ANN. All members forming the ensemble of neural networks were trained using an efficient particle swarm optimization algorithm. The results of the proposed methodology are validated using wind speed and wind power data obtained from an operational wind farm located in Northern China. The assessment demonstrates that this methodology for wind speed and power forecasting generally provides an improvement in predictive skills when compared to the practice of using an “optimal” weight vector from a single ANN while providing additional information in the form of prediction uncertainty bounds. PMID:27382627

  3. A Hybrid Wavelet-Machine Learning Approach for Short- and Long-Term Streamflow Forecasting in Western U.S. by Using Local and Global Climate Patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ticlavilca, A. M.; Maslova, I.; McKee, M.

    2012-12-01

    This research is focused on a hybrid computational intelligence modeling approach based on wavelet techniques and multivariate machine learning regression to produce short- and long-term streamflow forecasts. The streamflow data are obtained from selected USGS gauge stations located in rivers across the Western U.S. The machine learning model is based on a multivariate Bayesian approach for regression. The inputs of the model utilize past information of streamflow, precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent and Pacific sea surface temperature. These inputs are decomposed into meaningful components formulated in terms of wavelet multiresolution analysis and used to improve the forecasting potential of the machine learning model. The proposed hybrid modeling approach can incorporate important information from trends of the local and global climate time series into models that learn these patterns to produce improved streamflow predictions at different time scales. A bootstrap analysis is used to explore the robustness of the proposed modeling approach.

  4. Benchmark verification of deterministic and ensemble forecasts for the river Rhine

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Osnabrugge, Bart; Weerts, Albrecht; Verkade, Jan; den Toom, Matthijs; Uijlenhoet, Remko; Sprokkereef, Eric

    2016-04-01

    As part of the IMPREX project (IMproving PRedictions and management of EXtremes) we perform a benchmark verification study (tier 1) of an operational active hydrological forecasting system of the river Rhine. We assess the current forecast skill and contributions of current DA methods (e.g. error correction) to forecast skill. Our results will be compared with previous verification studies (Renner et al., 2009, Verkade et al., 2013) for the Rhine. Based on the results we will identify weaknesses and opportunities for future improvements. After model improvements and introduction of more advanced (ensemble) DA methods the benchmark will be conducted again later in the project (tier 2). From these experiments, we hope to show the relative importance of data assimilation, the availability of real-time hydrologic measured data in comparison with (improved) meteorological forecast skill and their effect on hydrologic predictability for the river Rhine.

  5. Forecasting quantitative rainfall over India using multi-model ensemble technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Durai, V. R.; Bhardwaj, Rashmi

    2014-10-01

    A new approach to ensemble forecasting of rainfall over India based on daily outputs of four operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in the medium-range timescale (up to 5 days) is proposed in this study. Four global models, namely ECMWF, JMA, GFS and UKMO available on real-time basis at India Meteorological Department, New Delhi, are used simultaneously with adequate weights to obtain a multi-model ensemble (MME) technique. In this technique, weights for each NWP model at each grid point are assigned on the basis of unbiased mean absolute error between the bias-corrected forecast and observed rainfall time series of 366 daily data of 3 consecutive southwest monsoon periods (JJAS) of 2008, 2009 and 2010. Apart from MME, a simple ensemble mean (ENSM) forecast is also generated and experimented. The prediction skill of MME is examined against observed and corresponding outputs of each constituent model during monsoon 2011. The inter-comparison reveals that MME is able to provide more realistic forecast of rainfall over Indian monsoon region by taking the strength of each constituent model. It has been further found that the weighted MME technique has higher skill in predicting daily rainfall compared to ENSM and individual member models. RMSE is found to be lowest in MME forecasts both in magnitude and area coverage. This indicates that fluctuations of day-to-day errors are relatively less in the MME forecast. The inter-comparison of domain-averaged skill scores for different rainfall thresholds further clearly demonstrates that the MME algorithm improves slightly above the ENSM and member models.

  6. Ensemble statistical post-processing of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability: Enhancing ozone forecasts in Baltimore, Maryland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garner, Gregory G.; Thompson, Anne M.

    2013-12-01

    An ensemble statistical post-processor (ESP) is developed for the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) to address the unique challenges of forecasting surface ozone in Baltimore, MD. Air quality and meteorological data were collected from the eight monitors that constitute the Baltimore forecast region. These data were used to build the ESP using a moving-block bootstrap, regression tree models, and extreme-value theory. The ESP was evaluated using a 10-fold cross-validation to avoid evaluation with the same data used in the development process. Results indicate that the ESP is conditionally biased, likely due to slight overfitting while training the regression tree models. When viewed from the perspective of a decision-maker, the ESP provides a wealth of additional information previously not available through the NAQFC alone. The user is provided the freedom to tailor the forecast to the decision at hand by using decision-specific probability thresholds that define a forecast for an ozone exceedance. Taking advantage of the ESP, the user not only receives an increase in value over the NAQFC, but also receives value for costly decisions that the NAQFC couldn't provide alone.

  7. Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model - II: forecast error statistics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bannister, R. N.; Migliorini, S.; Dixon, M. A. G.

    2011-05-01

    A 24-member ensemble of 1-h high-resolution forecasts over the Southern United Kingdom is used to study short-range forecast error statistics. The initial conditions are found from perturbations from an ensemble transform Kalman filter. Forecasts from this system are assumed to lie within the bounds of forecast error of an operational forecast system. Although noisy, this system is capable of producing physically reasonable statistics which are analysed and compared to statistics implied from a variational assimilation system. The variances for temperature errors for instance show structures that reflect convective activity. Some variables, notably potential temperature and specific humidity perturbations, have autocorrelation functions that deviate from 3-D isotropy at the convective-scale (horizontal scales less than 10 km). Other variables, notably the velocity potential for horizontal divergence perturbations, maintain 3-D isotropy at all scales. Geostrophic and hydrostatic balances are studied by examining correlations between terms in the divergence and vertical momentum equations respectively. Both balances are found to decay as the horizontal scale decreases. It is estimated that geostrophic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 75 km, and hydrostatic balance becomes less important at scales smaller than 35 km, although more work is required to validate these findings. The implications of these results for high-resolution data assimilation are discussed.

  8. A Preliminary Application of Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter System to Rainfall Forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tie, Wang

    2014-05-01

    WangTie(1,2),YangXiaofeng(1),ZangXin(1),GengLining(1),ZhouYan(1) (1)NanJing China-Spacenet Satellite Telecom CO., Ltd, Nanjing, 210061, China,(2)Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, LASG, Beijing, 100029, China The Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter(ETKF) method is applied to WRF model(Weather Research & Forecast Model system) Version 3.5.1, and the ETKF based data assimilation system is constructed. The accurate of forecast result and the sensitivity of initial data error on a heavy rainfall from 5th to 7th July 2003 in Jiangsu province China are investigated. The numerical result indicated that the ETKF method could decrease the forecast error and improves the forecast result either the synoptic scale system and the meso-scale system, the RMSEs of wind decrease less than 18 percent, while the temperature and humidity decrease about 6 precent. The forecast of precipitation, especially the 12h accumulated precipitation is improved significant after ETKF assimilation. Keywords: intense rainfall, prediction error, Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter(ETKF), WRF model

  9. Application of an ensemble technique based on singular spectrum analysis to daily rainfall forecasting.

    PubMed

    Baratta, Daniela; Cicioni, Giovambattista; Masulli, Francesco; Studer, Léonard

    2003-01-01

    In previous work, we have proposed a constructive methodology for temporal data learning supported by results and prescriptions related to the embedding theorem, and using the singular spectrum analysis both in order to reduce the effects of the possible discontinuity of the signal and to implement an efficient ensemble method. In this paper we present new results concerning the application of this approach to the forecasting of the individual rain-fall intensities series collected by 135 stations distributed in the Tiber basin. The average RMS error of the obtained forecasting is less than 3mm of rain. PMID:12672433

  10. Streamflow Forecasting using Satellite Products: A Benchmark Approach. Can We Reduce Uncertainty by using Multiple Products and Multiple Models?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roy, T.; Serrat-Capdevila, A.; Gupta, H.; Valdes, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Real-time satellite precipitation products can be used to drive hydrologic forecasts in downstream areas of poorly gauged basins. We present an improved approach to hydrologic modeling using satellite precipitation estimates to reduce uncertainty, consisting of: (1) bias-correction of satellite products, (2) re-calibration of hydrologic models using bias-corrected estimates, (3) bias-correction of streamflow outputs, and (4) plotting of uncertainty intervals. In addition, we evaluate the benefits of multi-product and model forecasts using four satellite precipitation products (CHIRPS, CMORPH, TMPA, and PERSIANN-CCS) to drive two hydrologic models (HYMOD and HBV-EDU), generating eight forecasts from different model-product-combinations following the approach described above. These probabilistic forecasts are then merged in an attempt to produce an improved forecast with higher accuracy and smaller uncertainty. These methods are applied in the Mara Basin in Kenya, facing serious water sustainability challenges, in an effort to support water management decisions balancing human and environmental needs, as part of the NASA SERVIR Applied Sciences Team.

  11. A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zhiyong; Wu, Juan; Lu, Guihua

    2015-11-01

    Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

  12. A one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system with combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zhiyong; Wu, Juan; Lu, Guihua

    2016-09-01

    Coupled hydrological and atmospheric modeling is an effective tool for providing advanced flood forecasting. However, the uncertainties in precipitation forecasts are still considerable. To address uncertainties, a one-way coupled atmospheric-hydrological modeling system, with a combination of high-resolution and ensemble precipitation forecasting, has been developed. It consists of three high-resolution single models and four sets of ensemble forecasts from the THORPEX Interactive Grande Global Ensemble database. The former provides higher forecasting accuracy, while the latter provides the range of forecasts. The combined precipitation forecasting was then implemented to drive the Chinese National Flood Forecasting System in the 2007 and 2008 Huai River flood hindcast analysis. The encouraging results demonstrated that the system can clearly give a set of forecasting hydrographs for a flood event and has a promising relative stability in discharge peaks and timing for warning purposes. It not only gives a deterministic prediction, but also generates probability forecasts. Even though the signal was not persistent until four days before the peak discharge was observed in the 2007 flood event, the visualization based on threshold exceedance provided clear and concise essential warning information at an early stage. Forecasters could better prepare for the possibility of a flood at an early stage, and then issue an actual warning if the signal strengthened. This process may provide decision support for civil protection authorities. In future studies, different weather forecasts will be assigned various weight coefficients to represent the covariance of predictors and the extremes of distributions.

  13. Urban water demand forecasting and uncertainty assessment using ensemble wavelet-bootstrap-neural network models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tiwari, Mukesh K.; Adamowski, Jan

    2013-10-01

    A new hybrid wavelet-bootstrap-neural network (WBNN) model is proposed in this study for short term (1, 3, and 5 day; 1 and 2 week; and 1 and 2 month) urban water demand forecasting. The new method was tested using data from the city of Montreal in Canada. The performance of the WBNN method was compared with the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and autoregressive integrated moving average model with exogenous input variables (ARIMAX), traditional NNs, wavelet analysis-based NNs (WNN), bootstrap-based NNs (BNN), and a simple naïve persistence index model. The WBNN model was developed as an ensemble of several NNs built using bootstrap resamples of wavelet subtime series instead of raw data sets. The results demonstrated that the hybrid WBNN and WNN models produced significantly more accurate forecasting results than the traditional NN, BNN, ARIMA, and ARIMAX models. It was also found that the WBNN model reduces the uncertainty associated with the forecasts, and the performance of WBNN forecasted confidence bands was found to be more accurate and reliable than BNN forecasted confidence bands. It was found in this study that maximum temperature and total precipitation improved the accuracy of water demand forecasts using wavelet analysis. The performance of WBNN models was also compared for different numbers of bootstrap resamples (i.e., 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500) and it was found that WBNN models produced optimum results with different numbers of bootstrap resamples for different lead time forecasts with considerable variability.

  14. Hydrologic ensemble hindcasting and verification in the U.S. National Weather Service

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demargne, Julie; Liu, Yuqiong; Brown, James; Seo, Dong-Jun; Wu, Limin; Weerts, Albrecht; Werner, Micha

    2010-05-01

    Quantifying the predictive uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts is one of the most pressing needs in operational hydrologic forecasting, to support risk-based decision making for a wide range of applications (e.g. flood risk management, water supply management, streamflow regulation, and recreation planning). Towards this goal, the Office of Hydrologic Development of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), in collaboration with the NWS River Forecast Centers, Deltares and other partners, has been developing the Experimental Ensemble Forecast System (XEFS). The XEFS includes the Ensemble Pre-Processor, the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction subsystem, the Ensemble Post-Processor, the Hydrologic Model Output Statistics streamflow ensemble processor, as well as the Ensemble Verification System for assessing the quality of the probabilistic forecasts generated therein. It is currently being integrated into the NWS's Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which builds on the service-oriented architecture of the Delft FEWS Flood Early Warning System. The CHPS-XEFS also provides ensemble hindcasting capabilities to retroactively apply the newly developed ensemble forecasting approaches, and produce large samples of ensemble hindcasts that are necessary for verification. The verification results based on these hindcasts may be used to evaluate the benefits of new or improved ensemble forecasting approaches. Additionally these can be used to analyze the various sources of uncertainty and error in the forecasting system, as well as guide targeted improvements. Hindcasts may also be required by sophisticated forecast users to calibrate their decision support system, and could help operational forecasters identify historical analogue forecasts to make informed decisions in real-time. In this paper, we describe our hindcasting procedures using CHPS-XEFS, present verification results of ensemble hindcasts generated therein

  15. Basis for a streamflow forecasting system to Rincón del Bonete and Salto Grande (Uruguay)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Talento, Stefanie; Terra, Rafael

    2013-10-01

    This paper presents the basis for the design of streamflow prediction systems for the hydroelectric dams of Rincón del Bonete (Uruguay) and Salto Grande (Uruguay-Argentina). The prediction is made, independently, for each reservoir and each month of the year with two methodologies: data-driven statistical models and hybrid downscaling that includes atmospheric predictors. We determine a set of potential predictors and then fit linear models coupled with variable selection techniques, under the hypothesis of perfectly known predictors. The predictive skill of the schemes outperforms the climatological forecast throughout the year in both reservoirs (except August in Rincón del Bonete). This remains the case even when the forecast lead does not allow for the use of preceding flows as predictors. While in Rincón del Bonete it is not possible to distinguish a period of high predictability, in Salto Grande, there is a robust signal in March-May and October-December.

  16. How do I know if my forecasts are better? Using benchmarks in hydrological ensemble prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pappenberger, F.; Ramos, M. H.; Cloke, H. L.; Wetterhall, F.; Alfieri, L.; Bogner, K.; Mueller, A.; Salamon, P.

    2015-03-01

    The skill of a forecast can be assessed by comparing the relative proximity of both the forecast and a benchmark to the observations. Example benchmarks include climatology or a naïve forecast. Hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) are currently transforming the hydrological forecasting environment but in this new field there is little information to guide researchers and operational forecasters on how benchmarks can be best used to evaluate their probabilistic forecasts. In this study, it is identified that the forecast skill calculated can vary depending on the benchmark selected and that the selection of a benchmark for determining forecasting system skill is sensitive to a number of hydrological and system factors. A benchmark intercomparison experiment is then undertaken using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS), a reference forecasting system and a suite of 23 different methods to derive benchmarks. The benchmarks are assessed within the operational set-up of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) to determine those that are 'toughest to beat' and so give the most robust discrimination of forecast skill, particularly for the spatial average fields that EFAS relies upon. Evaluating against an observed discharge proxy the benchmark that has most utility for EFAS and avoids the most naïve skill across different hydrological situations is found to be meteorological persistency. This benchmark uses the latest meteorological observations of precipitation and temperature to drive the hydrological model. Hydrological long term average benchmarks, which are currently used in EFAS, are very easily beaten by the forecasting system and the use of these produces much naïve skill. When decomposed into seasons, the advanced meteorological benchmarks, which make use of meteorological observations from the past 20 years at the same calendar date, have the most skill discrimination. They are also good at discriminating skill in low flows and for all

  17. A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marécal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Andersson, C.; Andersson, S.; Arteta, J.; Beekmann, M.; Benedictow, A.; Bergström, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Cansado, A.; Chéroux, F.; Colette, A.; Coman, A.; Curier, R. L.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Drouin, A.; Elbern, H.; Emili, E.; Engelen, R. J.; Eskes, H. J.; Foret, G.; Friese, E.; Gauss, M.; Giannaros, C.; Guth, J.; Joly, M.; Jaumouillé, E.; Josse, B.; Kadygrov, N.; Kaiser, J. W.; Krajsek, K.; Kuenen, J.; Kumar, U.; Liora, N.; Lopez, E.; Malherbe, L.; Martinez, I.; Melas, D.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Moinat, P.; Morales, T.; Parmentier, J.; Piacentini, A.; Plu, M.; Poupkou, A.; Queguiner, S.; Robertson, L.; Rouïl, L.; Schaap, M.; Segers, A.; Sofiev, M.; Tarasson, L.; Thomas, M.; Timmermans, R.; Valdebenito, Á.; van Velthoven, P.; van Versendaal, R.; Vira, J.; Ung, A.

    2015-09-01

    This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in the MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014) and analyses the performance of the multi-model ensemble. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs (non-methane volatile organic compounds) and PAN+PAN precursors) over eight vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performance of the system is assessed daily, weekly and every 3 months (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the ensemble median to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10. The statistical indicators for ozone in summer 2014 show that the ensemble median gives on average the best performances compared to the seven models. There is very little degradation of the scores with the forecast day but there is a marked diurnal cycle, similarly to the individual models, that can be related partly to the prescribed diurnal variations of anthropogenic emissions in the models

  18. Forecasting skills of the ensemble hydro-meteorological system for the Po river floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricciardi, Giuseppe; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Pecora, Silvano; Tonelli, Fabrizio

    2013-04-01

    The Po basin is the largest and most economically important river-basin in Italy. Extreme hydrological events, including floods, flash floods and droughts, are expected to become more severe in the next future due to climate change, and related ground effects are linked both with environmental and social resilience. A Warning Operational Center (WOC) for hydrological event management was created in Emilia Romagna region. In the last years, the WOC faced challenges in legislation, organization, technology and economics, achieving improvements in forecasting skill and information dissemination. Since 2005, an operational forecasting and modelling system for flood modelling and forecasting has been implemented, aimed at supporting and coordinating flood control and emergency management on the whole Po basin. This system, referred to as FEWSPo, has also taken care of environmental aspects of flood forecast. The FEWSPo system has reached a very high level of complexity, due to the combination of three different hydrological-hydraulic chains (HEC-HMS/RAS - MIKE11 NAM/HD, Topkapi/Sobek), with several meteorological inputs (forecasted - COSMOI2, COSMOI7, COSMO-LEPS among others - and observed). In this hydrological and meteorological ensemble the management of the relative predictive uncertainties, which have to be established and communicated to decision makers, is a debated scientific and social challenge. Real time activities face professional, modelling and technological aspects but are also strongly interrelated with organization and human aspects. The authors will report a case study using the operational flood forecast hydro-meteorological ensemble, provided by the MIKE11 chain fed by COSMO_LEPS EQPF. The basic aim of the proposed approach is to analyse limits and opportunities of the long term forecast (with a lead time ranging from 3 to 5 days), for the implementation of low cost actions, also looking for a well informed decision making and the improvement of

  19. Forecasting of Severe Weather in Austria and Hungary Using High-Resolution Ensemble Prediction System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Szucs, Mihaly; Simon, Andre; Szintai, Balazs; Suklitsch, Martin; Wang, Yong; Wastl, Clemens; Boloni, Gergely

    2015-04-01

    The study presents and compares several approaches in EPS (ensemble prediction system) forecasting based on the non-hydrostatic, high resolution AROME model. The PEARP (global ARPEGE model EPS) was used for coupling. Besides, AROME-EPS was also generated upon hydrostatic ALADIN-EPS forecasts (LAEF), which were used as initial and lateral boundary conditions for each AROME-EPS run. The horizontal resolution of the AROME model is 2.5km and it uses 60 vertical levels for the vertical discretization. In most of the tests, the AROME-EPS run with 10+1 members in Hungarian and 16 members in Austrian implementation. The forecast length was usually set to 30-36 hours. The use of high-resolution EPS has advantages in almost all situations with severe convection (mostly in forecasting intense multicell thunderstorms or mesoscale convective systems of non-frontal origin). The possibility of severe thunderstorm was indicated by several EPS runs even if the deterministic (reference) AROME model failed to forecast the event. Similarly, it could be shown that the AROME-EPS can perform better than hydrostatic global or ALADIN-EPS models in situations with strong wind or heavy precipitation induced by large-scale circulation (mainly in mountain regions). Both EDA (Ensemble of Data Assimilation) and SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parameterized Tendencies) methods were tested as a potential perturbation generation method on limited area. The EDA method was able to improve the accuracy of single members through the reduction of the analysis error by applying local data assimilation. It was also able to increase the spread of the system in the early hours due to the additional analysis perturbations. The impact of the SPPT scheme was proven to be smaller in comparison to the impact of this method in global ensemble systems. Further possibilities of improving the assimilation methods and the setup of the AROME-EPS are also discussed.

  20. Probabilistic rainfall and streamflow prediction in Japanese small basin using EnKF

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ushiyama, Tomoki; Sayama, Takahiro; Iwami, Yoichi; Miyoshi, Takemasa

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic rainfall and streamflow forecasts have recently been recognized to have a highest potential for flood warning and disaster mitigation. Those forecast systems were proved to improve forecast skill considerably than deterministic approach. However, the smaller the target basins were chosen, the harder they forecast right amount of rainfall in the right place. The quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) for strong rainfall in limited areas is still a challenging research targets. Although countries like Japan with complex terrain with steep slopes divided in small river basins needs QPF with high horizontal resolution, no such probabilistic streamflow forecasting system had been developed in Japan. We developed a probabilistic rainfall and streamflow forecast system, and applied it to a Japanese small basin for two typhoon events. Our objective is to examine the potential of this forecasting system. The numerical weather prediction (NWP) part is based on Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model combined with the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) which is a sort of EnKF. The lateral boundary conditions were given by 5km resolution operational mesoscale model by Japan Meteorological Agency. The system assimilates PREPBUFR by NCEP and ground observed wind and air temperature. The WRF were run in 3km and 15km resolution, and 21 member ensemble run and deterministic runs were discussed. Predicted rainfall patterns were applied to our originally developed distributed hydrological model, named Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model, and we obtain streamflow pattern in the target basin, Hiyoshi Dam basin, in the center of Japan with a catchment size of 290km^2. Two typhoon cases, TALAS and ROKE in 2011, were examined which caused severe flood and landslide in this area. We implemented intermittent predictions with predictions updated every 6 hours, during about 5 day long period in both cases. The fraction skill scores (FSS) of the rainfall

  1. Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

    2016-06-01

    Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

  2. Integrating Hydrometeorological Information for Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasting Using Artificial Neural Networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.; Chang, F.

    2008-12-01

    The major purpose of this study is to effectively construct artificial neural networks-based multistep ahead flood forecasting using hydrometeorological and numerical weather prediction (NWP) information. To achieve this goal, we first compare three mean areal precipitation forecasts: radar/NWP multisource-derived forecasts (Pr), NWP precipitation forecasts (Pn), and improved precipitation forecasts (Pm) by merging Pr and Pn. The analysis shows that the accuracy of Pm is higher than that of Pr and Pn. The analysis also indicates that the NWP precipitation forecasts do provide relative effectiveness to the merging procedure, particularly for forecast lead time of 4-6 h. In sum, the merged products performed well and captured the main tendency of rainfall pattern. Subsequently, a recurrent neural network (RNN)-based multistep ahead flood forecasting techniques is produced by feeding with the merged precipitation. The evaluation of 1-6 h flood forecasting schemes strongly shows that the proposed hydrological model provides accurate and stable flood forecasts in comparison with conventional case and significantly improves the peak flow forecasts and the time-lag problem. An important finding is the hydrologic model responses seem not sensitive to precipitation predictions in lead times of 1-3 h, whereas the runoff forecasts are highly dependent on predicted precipitation information for longer lead times (4-6 h). Overall, the results demonstrate that accurate and consistent multistep ahead flood forecasting can be obtained by integrating predicted precipitation information into ANNs modeling.

  3. Sub-Optimal Ensemble Filters and distributed hydrologic modeling: a new challenge in flood forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baroncini, F.; Castelli, F.

    2009-09-01

    Data assimilation techniques based on Ensemble Filtering are widely regarded as the best approach in solving forecast and calibration problems in geophysics models. Often the implementation of statistical optimal techniques, like the Ensemble Kalman Filter, is unfeasible because of the large amount of replicas used in each time step of the model for updating the error covariance matrix. Therefore the sub optimal approach seems to be a more suitable choice. Various sub-optimal techniques were tested in atmospheric and oceanographic models, some of them are based on the detection of a "null space". Distributed Hydrologic Models differ from the other geo-fluid-dynamics models in some fundamental aspects that make complex to understanding the relative efficiency of the different suboptimal techniques. Those aspects include threshold processes , preferential trajectories for convection and diffusion, low observability of the main state variables and high parametric uncertainty. This research study is focused on such topics and explore them through some numerical experiments on an continuous hydrologic model, MOBIDIC. This model include both water mass balance and surface energy balance, so it's able to assimilate a wide variety of datasets like traditional hydrometric "on ground" measurements or land surface temperature retrieval from satellite. The experiments that we present concern to a basin of 700 kmq in center Italy, with hourly dataset on a 8 months period that includes both drought and flood events, in this first set of experiment we worked on a low spatial resolution version of the hydrologic model (3.2 km). A new Kalman Filter based algorithm is presented : this filter try to address the main challenges of hydrological modeling uncertainty. The proposed filter use in Forecast step a COFFEE (Complementary Orthogonal Filter For Efficient Ensembles) approach with a propagation of both deterministic and stochastic ensembles to improve robustness and convergence

  4. A general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction based on Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hao, Zengchao; Hao, Fanghua; Singh, Vijay P.

    2016-08-01

    Drought is among the costliest natural hazards worldwide and extreme drought events in recent years have caused huge losses to various sectors. Drought prediction is therefore critically important for providing early warning information to aid decision making to cope with drought. Due to the complicated nature of drought, it has been recognized that the univariate drought indicator may not be sufficient for drought characterization and hence multivariate drought indices have been developed for drought monitoring. Alongside the substantial effort in drought monitoring with multivariate drought indices, it is of equal importance to develop a drought prediction method with multivariate drought indices to integrate drought information from various sources. This study proposes a general framework for multivariate multi-index drought prediction that is capable of integrating complementary prediction skills from multiple drought indices. The Multivariate Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (MESP) is employed to sample from historical records for obtaining statistical prediction of multiple variables, which is then used as inputs to achieve multivariate prediction. The framework is illustrated with a linearly combined drought index (LDI), which is a commonly used multivariate drought index, based on climate division data in California and New York in the United States with different seasonality of precipitation. The predictive skill of LDI (represented with persistence) is assessed by comparison with the univariate drought index and results show that the LDI prediction skill is less affected by seasonality than the meteorological drought prediction based on SPI. Prediction results from the case study show that the proposed multivariate drought prediction outperforms the persistence prediction, implying a satisfactory performance of multivariate drought prediction. The proposed method would be useful for drought prediction to integrate drought information from various sources

  5. Comparison of two ways for representation of the forecast probability density function in ensemble-based sequential data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Shinya

    2013-04-01

    In the ensemble-based sequential data assimilation, the probability density function (PDF) at each time step is represented by ensemble members. These ensemble members are usually assumed to be Monte Carlo samples drawn from the PDF, and the probability density is associated with the concentration of the ensemble members. On the basis of the Monte Carlo approximation, the forecast ensemble, which is obtained by applying the dynamical model to each ensemble member, provides an approximation of the forecast PDF on the basis of the Chapman-Kolmogorov integral. In practical cases, however, the ensemble size is limited by available computational resources, and it is typically much less than the system dimension. In such situations, the Monte Carlo approximation would not well work. When the ensemble size is less than the system dimension, the ensemble would form a simplex in a subspace. The simplex can not represent the third or higher-order moments of the PDF, but it can represent only the Gaussian features of the PDF. As noted by Wang et al. (2004), the forecast ensemble, which is obtained by applying the dynamical model to each member of the simplex ensemble, provides an approximation of the mean and covariance of the forecast PDF where the Taylor expansion of the dynamical model up to the second-order is considered except that the uncertainties which can not represented by the ensemble members are ignored. Since the third and higher-order nonlinearity is discarded, the forecast ensemble would provide some bias to the forecast. Using a small nonlinear model, the Lorenz 63 model, we also performed the experiment of the state estimation with both the simplex representation and the Monte Carlo representation, which corresponds to the limited-sized ensemble case and the large-sized ensemble case, respectively. If we use the simplex representation, it is found that the estimates tend to have some bias which is likely to be caused by the nonlinearity of the system rather

  6. The Performance and Feasibility of Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations-based Proactive Quality Control Scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, T. C.; Hotta, D.; Kalnay, E.

    2015-12-01

    Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems occasionally exhibit "forecast skill dropouts" in which the forecast skill drops to an abnormally low level, due in part to the assimilation of flawed observational data. Recent studies have shown that a diagnostic technique called Ensemble Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (EFSO) can detect such observations (Kalnay et.al 2012; Ota et al. 2013, Tellus A). Based on this technique, a new Quality Control (QC) scheme called Proactive QC (PQC) has been proposed which detects "flawed" observations using EFSO after just 6 hours forecast, when the analysis at the next cycle becomes available for verification and then repeats the analysis and forecast without using the detected observations (Hotta 2014). In Hotta (2014), it was shown using the JCSDA S4 Testbed that the 6hr PQC reduces the 24-hour forecast errors from the detected skill dropout events. With such encouraging results we are performing preliminary experiments towards operational implementation. First, we show that offline PQC correction can significantly reduce forecast errors up to 5 days, and that the reduction and improved areal coverage can grow with synoptic weather disturbances for several days. Second, with online PQC cycle experiment the reduction of forecast error is shown to be even larger than in the offline version, since the effect could accumulate over each time we perform a PQC correction. Finally, the operational center imposes very tight schedule in order to deliver the products on time, thus the computational cost has to be minimized in order for PQC to be implemented. To avoid performing the analysis twice, which is the most expensive part of PQC, we test the accuracy of constant-K approximation, which assumes the Kalman gain K doesn't change much given the fact that only a small subset of observation is rejected. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the performance and feasibility of PQC implementation in real-time operational

  7. Tropospheric predictability around stratospheric warming events examined with an idealized forecast ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hörnqvist, E.; Körnich, H.

    2012-04-01

    By representing sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs) in numerical weather prediction models, the predictability length could possibly be improved. It has been suggested that this improvement depends on the initial day of the forecast relative to the central date of the SSW. In this project this hypothesis is tested in the framework of an idealized general circulation model. Furthermore, it will be examined how uncertainties of the initial conditions and model errors in the forecast model affect the predictability around stratospheric warming events. Identical-twin forecast experiments are performed with the Kühlungsborn Mechanistic general Circulation Model KMCM that extends to the stratopause. In a 20-year truth run with perpetual January conditions, 21 SSWs are identified. Ensemble forecasts using random field perturbations in the initial conditions are conducted with initial dates from 20 days before to 20 days after each SSW central date. In four different experiments, we examine how the tropospheric predictability depends on perturbations in troposphere, stratosphere or both, and on model errors in the stratospheric radiative equilibrium temperature. The results show that a forecast initialised before the SSW central date has a greater forecast skill than after. On average useful forecast for the zonal mean zonal wind at 60N and 850 hPa are extended by 10 days, when initialized up to 12 days before the SSW. This extension is robust for the different perturbation experiments and also when a model error was introduced. Thus, the experiments confirm that the largest improvement of predictability is achieved, when the forecast is initialised before the sudden stratospheric warming event.

  8. Hydrological Forecasting in Mexico: Extending the University of Washington West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz-Arriola, F.; Thomas, G.; Wood, A.; Wagner-Gomez, A.; Lobato-Sanchez, R.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2007-12-01

    Hydrologic forecasting in areas constrained by the availability of hydrometeorological records is a notable challenge in water resource management. Techniques from the University of Washington West-wide Seasonal Hydrologic Forecast system www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/westwide) for generating daily nowcasts in areas with sparse and time-varying station coverage have been extended from the western U.S. into Mexico. The primary forecasting approaches consist of ensembles based on the NWS ensemble streamflow prediction method (ESP; essentially resampling of climatology) and on NCEP Coupled Forecast System (CFS) outputs. These in turn are used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model to produce streamflow ensembles. The initial hydrologic state utilized in the seasonal forecasting is generated by VIC using daily real-time hydrologic nowcasts, produced using forcings derived via an 'index-station percentile' approach from meteorological station data accessed in real time from Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (SMN). One-year lead time streamflow forecasts at monthly time step are produced at a set of major river locations in Mexico. As a case study, the streamflow forecasts, along with forecasts of reservoir evaporation, are used as input to the Simulation-Optimization (SIMOP) model of the Rio Yaqui system, one of the major agricultural production centers of Mexico. This is the first step in an eventual planned water management implementation over all of Mexico.

  9. Hurricane Irene (2011) “worst-case” estimates of wind damage to property from exigent analysis of ECMWF ensemble forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffman, Ross N.; Gombos, Daniel

    2012-08-01

    In late August 2011, Hurricane Irene damaged property along the U.S. East Coast, making landfalls in the Carolinas and in the New York metro area. At each initial forecast time, the ECMWF forecast ensemble provides a measure of the possible outcomes. For each ensemble member the maximum sustained wind predicted at each location is used to estimate the expected property damage due to wind. “Worst-case” or exigent scenarios are developed that are consistent with the range of forecasts in the ensemble. Exigent scenarios are potentially useful to emergency responders and planners and applicable to any area of geophysics for which spatial uncertainty is represented by an ensemble of realizations. For the case of Hurricane Irene, the exigent patterns of damage are centered on New York Harbor and the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay.

  10. A pan-African medium-range ensemble flood forecast system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thiemig, V.; Bisselink, B.; Pappenberger, F.; Thielen, J.

    2015-08-01

    The African Flood Forecasting System (AFFS) is a probabilistic flood forecast system for medium- to large-scale African river basins, with lead times of up to 15 days. The key components are the hydrological model LISFLOOD, the African GIS database, the meteorological ensemble predictions by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Ranged Weather Forecasts) and critical hydrological thresholds. In this paper, the predictive capability is investigated in a hindcast mode, by reproducing hydrological predictions for the year 2003 when important floods were observed. Results were verified by ground measurements of 36 sub-catchments as well as by reports of various flood archives. Results showed that AFFS detected around 70 % of the reported flood events correctly. In particular, the system showed good performance in predicting riverine flood events of long duration (> 1 week) and large affected areas (> 10 000 km2) well in advance, whereas AFFS showed limitations for small-scale and short duration flood events. The case study for the flood event in March 2003 in the Sabi Basin (Zimbabwe) illustrated the good performance of AFFS in forecasting timing and severity of the floods, gave an example of the clear and concise output products, and showed that the system is capable of producing flood warnings even in ungauged river basins. Hence, from a technical perspective, AFFS shows a large potential as an operational pan-African flood forecasting system, although issues related to the practical implication will still need to be investigated.

  11. Ensemble Modeling with Data Assimilation Models: A New Strategy for Space Weather Science, Specifications and Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schunk, R. W.; Scherliess, L.; Eccles, J. V.; Gardner, L. C.; Sojka, J. J.; Zhu, L.; Pi, X.; Mannucci, A.; Wilson, B. D.; Komjathy, A.; Wang, C.; Rosen, G.; Tobiska, W.; Schaefer, R. K.; Paxton, L. J.

    2012-12-01

    The Earth's Ionosphere-Thermosphere-Electrodynamics (I-T-E) system varies markedly on a range of spatial and temporal scales and these variations can have adverse effects on human operations and systems. Consequently, there is a need to both mitigate and forecast near-Earth space weather. Following the meteorologists, our goal is to specify and forecast the global I-T-E system with data assimilation models, because they are reliable and the models are already available. Currently, our team has first-principles-based data assimilation models for the ionosphere, ionosphere-plasmasphere, thermosphere, high-latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics, and mid-low latitude ionosphere-electrodynamics. These models assimilate a myriad of different ground- and space-based observations, and there are several data assimilation models for each near-Earth space domain. This enables us to conduct Multimodel Ensemble Data Assimilation of the I-T-E system that can account for different physical modeling assumptions, numerical techniques, and model initialization approaches. The application of ensemble modeling with several different data assimilation models will lead to a paradigm shift in how basic physical processes are studied in near-Earth space, and it should also lead to a significant advance space weather forecasting.

  12. Maximization of seasonal forecasts performance combining Grand Multi-Model Ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alessandri, Andrea; De Felice, Matteo; Catalano, Franco; Lee, Doo Young; Yoo, Jin Ho; Lee, June-Yi; Wang, Bin

    2014-05-01

    Multi-Model Ensembles (MMEs) are powerful tools in dynamical climate prediction as they account for the overconfidence and the uncertainties related to single-model errors. Previous works suggested that the potential benefit that can be expected by using a MME amplify with the increase of the independence of the contributing Seasonal Prediction Systems. In this work we combine the two Multi Model Ensemble (MME) Seasonal Prediction Systems (SPSs) independently developed by the European (ENSEMBLES) and by the Asian-Pacific (CliPAS/APCC) communities. To this aim, all the possible multi-model combinations obtained by putting together the 5 models from ENSEMBLES and the 11 models from CliPAS/APCC have been evaluated. The grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC Multi-Model enhances significantly the skill compared to previous estimates from the contributing MMEs. The combinations of SPSs maximizing the skill that is currently attainable for specific predictands/phenomena is evaluated. Our results show that, in general, the better combinations of SPSs are obtained by mixing ENSEMBLES and CliPAS/APCC models and that only a limited number of SPSs is required to obtain the maximum performance. The number and selection of models that perform better is usually different depending on the region/phenomenon under consideration. As an example for the tropical Pacific, the maximum performance is obtained with only the combination of 5-to-6 SPSs from the grand ENSEMBLES-CliPAS/APCC MME. With particular focus over Tropical Pacific, the relationship between performance and bias of the grand-MME combinations is evaluated. The skill of the grand-MME combinations over Euro-Mediterranean and East-Asia regions is further evaluated as a function of the capability of the selected contributing SPSs to forecast anomalies of the Polar/Siberian highs during winter and of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation during summer. Our results indicate that, combining SPSs from independent MME sources is a good

  13. Multi-model ensemble-based probabilistic prediction of tropical cyclogenesis using TIGGE model forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaiswal, Neeru; Kishtawal, C. M.; Bhomia, Swati; Pal, P. K.

    2016-02-01

    An extended range tropical cyclogenesis forecast model has been developed using the forecasts of global models available from TIGGE portal. A scheme has been developed to detect the signatures of cyclogenesis in the global model forecast fields [i.e., the mean sea level pressure and surface winds (10 m horizontal winds)]. For this, a wind matching index was determined between the synthetic cyclonic wind fields and the forecast wind fields. The thresholds of 0.4 for wind matching index and 1005 hpa for pressure were determined to detect the cyclonic systems. These detected cyclonic systems in the study region are classified into different cyclone categories based on their intensity (maximum wind speed). The forecasts of up to 15 days from three global models viz., ECMWF, NCEP and UKMO have been used to predict cyclogenesis based on multi-model ensemble approach. The occurrence of cyclonic events of different categories in all the forecast steps in the grided region (10 × 10 km2) was used to estimate the probability of the formation of cyclogenesis. The probability of cyclogenesis was estimated by computing the grid score using the wind matching index by each model and at each forecast step and convolving it with Gaussian filter. The proposed method is used to predict the cyclogenesis of five named tropical cyclones formed during the year 2013 in the north Indian Ocean. The 6-8 days advance cyclogenesis of theses systems were predicted using the above approach. The mean lead prediction time for the cyclogenesis event of the proposed model has been found as 7 days.

  14. Forecasting European cold waves based on subsampling strategies of CMIP5 and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cordero-Llana, Laura; Braconnot, Pascale; Vautard, Robert; Vrac, Mathieu; Jezequel, Aglae

    2016-04-01

    Forecasting future extreme events under the present changing climate represents a difficult task. Currently there are a large number of ensembles of simulations for climate projections that take in account different models and scenarios. However, there is a need for reducing the size of the ensemble to make the interpretation of these simulations more manageable for impact studies or climate risk assessment. This can be achieved by developing subsampling strategies to identify a limited number of simulations that best represent the ensemble. In this study, cold waves are chosen to test different approaches for subsampling available simulations. The definition of cold waves depends on the criteria used, but they are generally defined using a minimum temperature threshold, the duration of the cold spell as well as their geographical extend. These climate indicators are not universal, highlighting the difficulty of directly comparing different studies. As part of the of the CLIPC European project, we use daily surface temperature data obtained from CMIP5 outputs as well as Euro-CORDEX simulations to predict future cold waves events in Europe. From these simulations a clustering method is applied to minimise the number of ensembles required. Furthermore, we analyse the different uncertainties that arise from the different model characteristics and definitions of climate indicators. Finally, we will test if the same subsampling strategy can be used for different climate indicators. This will facilitate the use of the subsampling results for a wide number of impact assessment studies.

  15. Ensemble forecasting of coronal mass ejections using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmons, D.; Acebal, A.; Pulkkinen, A.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P.; Odstrcil, D.

    2013-03-01

    The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

  16. Ensemble Forecasting of Coronal Mass Ejections Using the WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Emmons, D.; Acebal, A.; Pulkkinen, A.; Taktakishvili, A.; MacNeice, P.; Odstricil, D.

    2013-01-01

    The combination of the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) coronal model, ENLIL heliospherical model version 2.7, and CONED Model version 1.3 (WSA-ENLIL with CONED Model) was employed to form ensemble forecasts for 15 halo coronal mass ejections (halo CMEs). The input parameter distributions were formed from 100 sets of CME cone parameters derived from the CONED Model. The CONED Model used image processing along with the bootstrap approach to automatically calculate cone parameter distributions from SOHO/LASCO imagery based on techniques described by Pulkkinen et al. (2010). The input parameter distributions were used as input to WSA-ENLIL to calculate the temporal evolution of the CMEs, which were analyzed to determine the propagation times to the L1 Lagrangian point and the maximum Kp indices due to the impact of the CMEs on the Earth's magnetosphere. The Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula was employed to calculate the maximum Kp indices based on the predicted solar wind parameters near Earth assuming two magnetic field orientations: a completely southward magnetic field and a uniformly distributed clock-angle in the Newell et al. (2007) Kp index formula. The forecasts for 5 of the 15 events had accuracy such that the actual propagation time was within the ensemble average plus or minus one standard deviation. Using the completely southward magnetic field assumption, 10 of the 15 events contained the actual maximum Kp index within the range of the ensemble forecast, compared to 9 of the 15 events when using a uniformly distributed clock angle.

  17. Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

    2016-07-01

    Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N-45°N, 10°E-65°E and Region-B: 20°N-55°N, 205°E-255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983-2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size.

  18. Fast Ensemble Kalman Filter for Model Calibration with Streamline-Assisted Pseudo Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, M. J.; Khodabakhshi, M.; Jafarpour, B.

    2011-12-01

    Characterization and modeling of subsurface flow and transport properties is critical for modeling, performance prediction and design of a number of important environmental and energy applications, including groundwater flow and contaminant transport, energy recovery from geothermal and hydrocarbon reservoirs, and geologic storage of CO2. Inverse modeling is typically applied to infer hydraulic rock properties from available static and dynamic measurements. Data sparsity and nonlinearity with respect to model parameters often result in significant uncertainty and solution non-uniqueness in solving the resulting inverse problems. Stochastic methods have become increasingly popular for dealing with inverse modeling solution non-uniqueness and uncertainty quantification. In particular, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has been widely applied for stochastic characterization of aquifer hydraulic properties from dynamic field measurements. For practical applications, where large-scale models are used, the computational cost of the forward simulation severely constrains the number of model realizations that can be included in ensemble predictions. Consequently, the statistics computed from a limited-size ensemble becomes spurious, making the resulting EnKF model updates unreliable. Localization and local analysis methods have been introduced to mitigate the effect of spurious correlations by reducing or removing the unphysical numerical correlations between model parameters (and/or states) and observations at distant locations. While these methods have proven useful, they require prior tuning of localization parameters and do not address the impact of small ensemble size approximation on the existing physical correlations between parameters and close-by observations. An alternative approach to localization is to approximate the correct statistics from computationally efficient surrogate models. Here, we present an efficient streamline-based pseudo forecast method for

  19. Probabilistic maize yield simulation over East Africa using ensemble seasonal climate forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogutu, Geoffrey; Supit, Iwan; Hutjes, Ronald

    2016-04-01

    Seasonal climate variability influences crop yields, especially in areas where rain fed agriculture is widely practiced such as in the East African region. Assuming that seasonal climate prediction skill would translate to similarly skillful prediction of impacts, an ensemble seasonal climate hindcast (ECMWF system4 EPS) for the period 1981 to 2010 at different initialization dates (lead months) before sowing is used to drive a crop simulation model: the World Food Studies (WOFOST) model, implemented for a single season Maize crop. The water-limited yield predictions were assessed against reference yields produced by the same crop model forced by the WATCH Forcing Data ERA-Interim (WFDEI) at grid point level. We focus on the main sowing dates of June/July (Northern region), March (Equatorial East Africa) and November (Southern region). Deviation of yields from the mean over the study period is used to indicate regions in which probabilistic yield forecasts would be useful while the Relative Operating Curve Skill Score (ROCSS) indicates prediction skill of above normal, near normal and below normal yield prediction. Equatorial regions of East Africa and coastal Kenya with sowing date in March show a mean deviation of ≥ 500 Kg/ha. Here probabilistic yield forecasts can potentially be useful as opposed to the northern and southern regions with less deviation. The high deviation in this region may also be due to the existence of more than one cropping season corresponding to the bi-modal rainfall regime since the model only simulates a single season. A positive ROCSS over a large extent of the equatorial region show predictability skill of all the tercile forecasts simulated by forecasts initialized at the start of sowing date (March i.e. lead 0 forecasts) and no predictability at longer lead months. Over Ethiopia in the northern region of East Africa, November harvests with a sowing date of June show predictability of the upper, lower and middle terciles at lead-0

  20. Comparative evaluation of ensemble Kalman filter, particle filter and variational techniques for river discharge forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hirpa, F. A.; Gebremichael, M.; LEE, H.; Hopson, T. M.

    2012-12-01

    Hydrologic data assimilation techniques provide a means to improve river discharge forecasts through updating hydrologic model states and correcting the atmospheric forcing data via optimally combining model outputs with observations. The performance of the assimilation procedure, however, depends on the data assimilation techniques used and the amount of uncertainty in the data sets. To investigate the effects of these, we comparatively evaluate three data assimilation techniques, including ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), particle filter (PF) and variational (VAR) technique, which assimilate discharge and synthetic soil moisture data at various uncertainty levels into the Sacramento Soil Moisture accounting (SAC-SMA) model used by the National Weather Service (NWS) for river forecasting in The United States. The study basin is Greens Bayou watershed with area of 178 km2 in eastern Texas. In the presentation, we summarize the results of the comparisons, and discuss the challenges of applying each technique for hydrologic applications.

  1. Decision-relevant early-warning thresholds for ensemble flood forecasting systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephens, Liz; Pappenberger, Florian; Cloke, Hannah; Alfieri, Lorenzo

    2014-05-01

    Over and under warning of potential future floods is problematic for decision-making, and could ultimately lead to trust being lost in the forecasts. The use of ensemble flood forecasting systems for early warning therefore requires a consideration of how to determine and implement decision-relevant thresholds for flood magnitude and probability. This study uses a year's worth of hindcasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) to explore the sensitivity of the warning system to the choice of threshold. We use a number of different methods for choosing these thresholds, building on current approaches that use model climatologies to determine the critical flow magnitudes, to those that can provide 'first guesses' of potential impacts (through integration with global-scale inundation mapping), as well as methods that could incorporate resource limitations.

  2. An Evaluation of Real-Time Streamflow Forecasts From a Distributed, Physically Based, Hydrologic Model Applied in the Upper Rio Grande Basin.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gorham, T. A.; Boyle, D. P.; McConnell, J. R.; Hobson, A. N.

    2002-12-01

    Different uses compete for the water resources of the Upper Rio Grande Basin including agriculture, municipalities, industry, recreation, ecology and water quality. For water operations management in the Upper Rio Grande, resource managers rely on accurate forecasts (both short and long term) of streamflow at several locations, or nodes on the river. In this study, the USGS Precipitation Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) is used to predict quantity of runoff in the headwater basin above the USGS streamflow gage near Del Norte, Colorado. Because fine-tuning of the PRMS can result in improved forecasts, predictions were made using three adaptations of the model: 1) low-spatial resolution, 2) high-spatial resolution, 3) using an alternate method of distributing climate variables throughout the basin. A post-forecast evaluation of the real-time streamflow forecasts is made via comparisons with forecasts made by the National Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). This study is highly collaborative between researchers at the Desert Research Institute (DRI) and the USGS as part of the NSF funded Center for Sustainability of semi-Arid Hydrology and Riparian Areas (SAHRA) efforts to improve models of snow distribution and snowmelt processes.

  3. Using ensemble rainfall predictions in a countrywide flood forecasting model in Scotland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cranston, M. D.; Maxey, R.; Tavendale, A. C. W.; Buchanan, P.

    2012-04-01

    Improving flood predictions for all sources of flooding is at the centre of flood risk management policy in Scotland. With the introduction of the Flood Risk Management (Scotland) Act providing a new statutory basis for SEPA's flood warning responsibilities, the pressures on delivering hydrological science developments in support of this legislation has increased. Specifically, flood forecasting capabilities need to develop in support of the need to reduce the impact of flooding through the provision of actively disseminated, reliable and timely flood warnings. Flood forecasting in Scotland has developed significantly in recent years (Cranston and Tavendale, 2012). The development of hydrological models to predict flooding at a catchment scale has relied upon the application of rainfall runoff models utilising raingauge, radar and quantitative precipitation forecasts in the short lead time (less than 6 hours). Single or deterministic forecasts based on highly uncertain rainfall predictions have led to the greatest operational difficulties when communicating flood risk with emergency responders, therefore the emergence of probability-based estimates offers the greatest opportunity for managing uncertain predictions. This paper presents operational application of a physical-conceptual distributed hydrological model on a countrywide basis across Scotland. Developed by CEH Wallingford for SEPA in 2011, Grid-to-Grid (G2G) principally runs in deterministic mode and employs radar and raingauge estimates of rainfall together with weather model predictions to produce forecast river flows, as gridded time-series at a resolution of 1km and for up to 5 days ahead (Cranston, et al., 2012). However the G2G model is now being run operationally using ensemble predictions of rainfall from the MOGREPS-R system to provide probabilistic flood forecasts. By presenting a range of flood predictions on a national scale through this approach, hydrologists are now able to consider an

  4. 3-D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Kern, M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-02-01

    We present Met.3D, a new open-source tool for the interactive 3-D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns, however, is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output - 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization, and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantitites. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 campaign.

  5. Three-dimensional visualization of ensemble weather forecasts - Part 1: The visualization tool Met.3D (version 1.0)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, M.; Kern, M.; Schäfler, A.; Westermann, R.

    2015-07-01

    We present "Met.3D", a new open-source tool for the interactive three-dimensional (3-D) visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns; however, it is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output - 3-D visualization, ensemble visualization and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2-D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3-D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3-D context. We address the issue of spatial perception in the 3-D view and present approaches to using the ensemble to allow the user to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to our approach. Met.3D uses modern graphics technology to achieve interactive visualization on standard consumer hardware. The tool supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and can operate directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. We describe the employed visualization algorithms, and analyse the impact of the ECMWF grid topology on computing 3-D ensemble statistical quantities. Our techniques are demonstrated with examples from the T-NAWDEX-Falcon 2012 (THORPEX - North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment) campaign.

  6. Applications of satellite snow cover in computerized short-term streamflow forecasting. [Conejos River, Colorado

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leaf, C. F.

    1975-01-01

    A procedure is described whereby the correlation between: (1) satellite derived snow-cover depletion and (2) residual snowpack water equivalent, can be used to update computerized residual flow forecasts for the Conejos River in southern Colorado.

  7. The impact of open boundary forcing on forecasting the East Australian Current using ensemble data assimilation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sandery, Paul A.; Sakov, Pavel; Majewski, Leon

    2014-12-01

    We investigate the performance of an eddy resolving regional ocean forecasting system of the East Australian Current (EAC) for both ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a focus on open boundary model nesting solutions. The performance of nesting into a global re-analysis; nesting into the system's own analysis; and nesting into a free model is quantified in terms of forecast innovation error. Nesting in the global reanalysis is found to yield the best results. This is closely followed by the system that nests inside its own analysis, which seems to represent a viable practical option in the absence of a suitable analysis to nest within. Nesting into a global reanalysis without data assimilation and nesting into an unconstrained model were both found to be unable to constrain the mesoscale circulation at all times. We also find that for a specific interior area of the domain where the EAC separation takes place, there is a mixture of results for all the systems investigated here and that, whilst the application of EnKF generates the best results overall, there are still times when not even this method is able to constrain the circulation in this region with the available observations.

  8. Ensemble flood forecasting to support dam water release operation using 10 and 2 km-resolution JMA Nonhydrostatic Model ensemble rainfalls

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kobayashi, K.; Otsuka, S.; Apip; Saito, K.

    2015-12-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency Nonhydrostatic Model are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolution. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km-resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km-resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1; a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km-resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while, at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km-resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls show much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  9. Forecasting the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic: an ensemble approach, with uncertainties based on data from operational ocean forecasting systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drillet, Y.; Lellouche, J. M.; Levier, B.; Drévillon, M.; Le Galloudec, O.; Reffray, G.; Regnier, C.; Greiner, E.; Clavier, M.

    2014-12-01

    Operational systems operated by Mercator Ocean provide daily ocean forecasts, and combining these forecasts we can produce ensemble forecast and uncertainty estimates. This study focuses on the mixed-layer depth in the Northeast Atlantic near the Porcupine Abyssal Plain for May 2013. This period is of interest for several reasons: (1) four Mercator Ocean operational systems provide daily forecasts at a horizontal resolution of 1/4, 1/12 and 1/36° with different physics; (2) glider deployment under the OSMOSIS project provides observation of the changes in mixed-layer depth; (3) the ocean stratifies in May, but mixing events induced by gale force wind are observed and forecast by the systems. Statistical scores and forecast error quantification for each system and for the combined products are presented. Skill scores indicate that forecasts are consistently better than persistence, and temporal correlations between forecast and observations are greater than 0.8 even for the 4-day forecast. The impact of atmospheric forecast error, and for the wind field in particular (miss or time delay of a wind burst forecast), is also quantified in terms of occurrence and intensity of mixing or stratification events.

  10. Ensemble Data Assimilation for Channel Flow Routing to Improve Operational Hydrologic Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Y.; Lee, H.; Seo, D.; Brown, J.; Corby, R.; Howieson, T.

    2008-12-01

    Channel flow routing, which predicts hydrograph transformation as water moves downstream, is a critical step in operational forecasting of floods and water resources. Like hydrologic modeling for headwater basins, routing modeling involves many kinds of uncertainties arising from observational data and the model itself. In addition to in-channel transformations, routing must also consider uncertainties from less-than-well-known sources and sinks along the channel. Data assimilation holds large potential in accounting for these different uncertainties in a dynamically and statistically consistent way. In this presentation, we describe an application of ensemble data assimilation for a hydrologic channel routing model based on the variable three-parameter Muskingum method, in which we consider errors in the inflow and outflow observations, and uncertainties in the initial conditions and Muskingum parameters. For data assimilation, we adopt the Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter (or MLEF, Zupanski 2005), which combines the strengths of variational data assimilation and ensemble filtering techniques. Results from applications to selected river sections in Texas in the WGRFC's service area will be presented, along with issues from research and operational perspectives.

  11. Maximum Likelihood Ensemble Filter-based Data Assimilation with HSPF for Improving Water Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Riazi, H.; Shin, C.; Seo, D.

    2013-12-01

    Due to the large dimensionality of the state vector and sparsity of observations, the initial conditions (IC) of water quality models are subject to large uncertainties. To reduce the IC uncertainties in operational water quality forecasting, an ensemble data assimilation (DA) procedure for the Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model has been developed and evaluated for the Kumho River Subcatchment of the Nakdong River Basin in Korea. The procedure, referred to herein as MLEF-HSPF, uses maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) which combines strengths of variational assimilation (VAR) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). The Control variables involved in the DA procedure include the bias correction factors for mean areal precipitation and mean areal potential evaporation, the hydrologic state variables, and the water quality state variables such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonium (NH4), nitrate (NO3), phosphate (PO4) and chlorophyll a (CHL-a). Due to the very large dimensionality of the inverse problem, accurately specifying the parameters for the DA procdedure is a challenge. Systematic sensitivity analysis is carried out for identifying the optimal parameter settings. To evaluate the robustness of MLEF-HSPF, we use multiple subcatchments of the Nakdong River Basin. In evaluation, we focus on the performance of MLEF-HSPF on prediction of extreme water quality events.

  12. Ensemble Data Assimilation with HSPF for Improved Real-Time Water Quality Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, S.; Riazi, H.; rafieei nasab, A.; Shin, C.; Seo, D.

    2013-05-01

    An ensemble data assimilation (DA) procedure for the Hydrologic Simulation Program - Fortran (HSPF) model has been developed, tested and evaluated for implementation in real-time water quality forecasting. The procedure, referred to herein as MLEF-HSPF, uses maximum likelihood ensemble filter (MLEF) which combines strengths of variational assimilation (VAR) and ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). To evaluate the procedure, MLEF-HSPF was run daily for a 2-yr period for the Kumho River Subbasin of the Nakdong River Basin in Korea. A set of performance measures was used to assess the marginal value of DA-aided predictions of stream flow and water quality variables such as water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), ammonium (NH4), nitrate (NO3), phosphate (PO4) and chlorophyll a. Due to large dimensionality of the state vector and complexity of the biochemical processes involved, DA with HSPF poses additional challenges. In this presentation, we describe MLEF-HSPF, summarize the evaluation results and identify the challenges.

  13. A regional air quality forecasting system over Europe: the MACC-II daily ensemble production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marécal, V.; Peuch, V.-H.; Andersson, C.; Andersson, S.; Arteta, J.; Beekmann, M.; Benedictow, A.; Bergström, R.; Bessagnet, B.; Cansado, A.; Chéroux, F.; Colette, A.; Coman, A.; Curier, R. L.; Denier van der Gon, H. A. C.; Drouin, A.; Elbern, H.; Emili, E.; Engelen, R. J.; Eskes, H. J.; Foret, G.; Friese, E.; Gauss, M.; Giannaros, C.; Guth, J.; Joly, M.; Jaumouillé, E.; Josse, B.; Kadygrov, N.; Kaiser, J. W.; Krajsek, K.; Kuenen, J.; Kumar, U.; Liora, N.; Lopez, E.; Malherbe, L.; Martinez, I.; Melas, D.; Meleux, F.; Menut, L.; Moinat, P.; Morales, T.; Parmentier, J.; Piacentini, A.; Plu, M.; Poupkou, A.; Queguiner, S.; Robertson, L.; Rouïl, L.; Schaap, M.; Segers, A.; Sofiev, M.; Thomas, M.; Timmermans, R.; Valdebenito, Á.; van Velthoven, P.; van Versendaal, R.; Vira, J.; Ung, A.

    2015-03-01

    This paper describes the pre-operational analysis and forecasting system developed during MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) and continued in MACC-II (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate: Interim Implementation) European projects to provide air quality services for the European continent. The paper gives an overall picture of its status at the end of MACC-II (summer 2014). This system is based on seven state-of-the art models developed and run in Europe (CHIMERE, EMEP, EURAD-IM, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH, MOCAGE and SILAM). These models are used to calculate multi-model ensemble products. The MACC-II system provides daily 96 h forecasts with hourly outputs of 10 chemical species/aerosols (O3, NO2, SO2, CO, PM10, PM2.5, NO, NH3, total NMVOCs and PAN + PAN precursors) over 8 vertical levels from the surface to 5 km height. The hourly analysis at the surface is done a posteriori for the past day using a selection of representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. The performances of the system are assessed daily, weekly and 3 monthly (seasonally) through statistical indicators calculated using the available representative air quality data from European monitoring stations. Results for a case study show the ability of the median ensemble to forecast regional ozone pollution events. The time period of this case study is also used to illustrate that the median ensemble generally outperforms each of the individual models and that it is still robust even if two of the seven models are missing. The seasonal performances of the individual models and of the multi-model ensemble have been monitored since September 2009 for ozone, NO2 and PM10 and show an overall improvement over time. The change of the skills of the ensemble over the past two summers for ozone and the past two winters for PM10 are discussed in the paper. While the evolution of the ozone scores is not significant, there are improvements of PM10 over the past two winters

  14. Global and Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction Systems deployed for Wind Power Forecasting

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petroliagis, T. I.; Jacques, M.; Montani, A.; Bremen, L. V.; Heinemann, D.

    2010-09-01

    The integration of wind generation into power systems is affected by uncertainties in the forecasting of expected power output. Misestimating of meteorological conditions or large forecasting errors (phase errors, near cut-off speeds etc.) has proved to be very costly for infrastructures (i.e. unexpected loads on turbines) and reduces the value of wind energy for end-users. The state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting has focused so far on the 'usual' operating conditions rather than on extreme events. Thus, the current wind forecasting technology presents several strong bottlenecks. End-users urge for dedicated approaches to reduce large prediction errors or predict extremes from a local scale (gusts, shears) up to a European scale as extremes and forecast errors may propagate. The aim of the new European FP7 Project, namely SAFEWIND, is to substantially improve wind power predictability in challenging or extreme situations and at different temporal and spatial scales. One of the areas that SAFEWIND concentrates on is the use of Global and Local Area Model (LAM) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) forecasts for improved wind predictions on local to regional scales. More specifically, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) EPS has been deployed as the backbone Global EPS platform for the SAFEWIND. The operational ECMWF EPS uses perturbations based on initial and evolved singular vectors. Model uncertainties are presented currently by the stochastic physics scheme that perturbs the parametrised physics tendencies by multiplicative noise. The current horizontal resolution of the ECMWF EPS is roughly 32 km while its corresponding 'deterministic' IFS (Integrated Forecast System) forecast and analysis fields have a resolution of about 16 km. On the other hand, LEPS (Limited-Area Ensemble Prediction System) components have been provided by the COSMO-LEPS. This system is based on the non-hydrostatic COSMO-model developed within the COnsortium for

  15. An Observational Case Study of Persistent Fog and Comparison with an Ensemble Forecast Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Price, Jeremy; Porson, Aurore; Lock, Adrian

    2015-05-01

    We present a study of a persistent case of fog and use the observations to evaluate the UK Met Office ensemble model. The fog appeared to form initially in association with small patches of low-level stratus and spread rapidly across southern England during 11 December 2012, persisting for 24 h. The low visibility and occurrence of fog associated with the event was poorly forecast. Observations show that the surprisingly rapid spreading of the layer was due to a circulation at the fog edge, whereby cold cloudy air subsided into and mixed with warmer adjacent clear air. The resulting air was saturated, and hence the fog layer grew rapidly outwards from its edge. Measurements of fog-droplet deposition made overnight show that an average of 12 g m h was deposited but that the liquid water content remained almost constant, indicating that further liquid was condensing at a similar rate to the deposition, most likely due to the slow cooling. The circulation at the fog edge was also present during its dissipation, by which time the fog top had lowered by 150 m. During this period the continuing circulation at the fog edge, and increasing wind shear at fog top, acted to dissipate the fog by creating mixing with, by then, the drier adjacent and overlying air. Comparisons with a new, high resolution Met Office ensemble model show that this type of case remains challenging to simulate. Most ensemble members successfully simulated the formation and persistence of low stratus cloud in the region, but produced too much cloud initially overnight, which created a warm bias. During the daytime, ensemble predictions that had produced fog lifted it into low stratus, whilst in reality the fog remained present all day. Various aspects of the model performance are discussed further.

  16. Effect of different uncertainty sources on the skill of 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts for two hydrological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Demirel, Mehmet C.; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2013-07-01

    This paper aims to investigate the effect of uncertainty originating from model inputs, parameters and initial conditions on 10 day ensemble low flow forecasts. Two hydrological models, GR4J and HBV, are applied to the Moselle River and performance in the calibration, validation and forecast periods, and the effect of different uncertainty sources on the quality of low flow forecasts are compared. The forecasts are generated by using meteorological ensemble forecasts as input to GR4J and HBV. The ensembles provided the uncertainty range for the model inputs. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is used to estimate parameter uncertainty. The quality of the probabilistic low flow forecasts has been assessed by the relative confidence interval, reliability and hit/false alarm rates. The daily observed low flows are mostly captured by the 90% confidence interval for both models. However, GR4J usually overestimates low flows whereas HBV is prone to underestimate them, particularly when the parameter uncertainty is included in the forecasts. The total uncertainty in GR4J outputs is higher than in HBV. The forecasts issued by HBV incorporating input uncertainty resulted in the most reliable forecast distribution. The parameter uncertainty was the main reason reducing the number of hits. The number of false alarms in GR4J is twice the number of false alarms in HBV when considering all uncertainty sources. The results of this study showed that the parameter uncertainty has the largest effect whereas the input uncertainty had the smallest effect on the medium range low flow forecasts.

  17. Met.3D - a new open-source tool for interactive 3D visualization of ensemble weather forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rautenhaus, Marc; Kern, Michael; Schäfler, Andreas; Westermann, Rüdiger

    2015-04-01

    We introduce Met.3D, a new open-source tool for the interactive 3D visualization of numerical ensemble weather predictions. The tool has been developed to support weather forecasting during aircraft-based atmospheric field campaigns, however, is applicable to further forecasting, research and teaching activities. Our work approaches challenging topics related to the visual analysis of numerical atmospheric model output -- 3D visualisation, ensemble visualization, and how both can be used in a meaningful way suited to weather forecasting. Met.3D builds a bridge from proven 2D visualization methods commonly used in meteorology to 3D visualization by combining both visualization types in a 3D context. It implements methods that address the issue of spatial perception in the 3D view as well as approaches to using the ensemble in order to assess forecast uncertainty. Interactivity is key to the Met.3D approach. The tool uses modern graphics hardware technology to achieve interactive visualization of present-day numerical weather prediction datasets on standard consumer hardware. Met.3D supports forecast data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts and operates directly on ECMWF hybrid sigma-pressure level grids. In this presentation, we provide an overview of the software --illustrated with short video examples--, and give information on its availability.

  18. Using GEFS ensemble forecasts for decision making in reservoir management in California

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scheuerer, M.; Hamill, T.; Webb, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    Reservoirs such as Lake Mendocino in California's Russian River Basin provide flood control, water supply, recreation, and environmental stream flow regulation. Many of these reservoirs are operated by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (Corps) according to water control manuals that specify elevations for an upper volume of reservoir storage that must be kept available for capturing storm runoff and reducing flood risk, and a lower volume of storage that may be used for water supply. During extreme rainfall events, runoff is captured by these reservoirs and released as quickly as possible to create flood storage space for another potential storm. These flood control manuals are based on typical historical weather patterns - wet during the winter, dry otherwise - but are not informed directly by weather prediction. Alternative reservoir management approaches such as Forecast-Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO), which seek to incorporate advances in weather prediction, are currently being explored as means to improve water supply availability while maintaining flood risk reduction and providing additional ecosystem benefits.We present results from a FIRO proof-of-concept study investigating the reliability of post-processed GEFS ensemble forecasts to predict the probability that day 6-to-10 precipitation accumulations in certain areas in California exceed a high threshold. Our results suggest that reliable forecast guidance can be provided, and the resulting probabilities could be used to inform decisions to release or hold water in the reservoirs. We illustrate the potential of these forecasts in a case study of extreme event probabilities for the Russian River Basin in California.

  19. Evaluation of precipitation forecasts over the Alps using the D-PHASE multi-model ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weusthoff, T.; Arpagaus, M.; Rotach, M. W.

    2010-09-01

    In the scope of the WWRP Forecast and Demonstration Project D-PHASE a real-time end-to-end forecasting system for heavy precipitation and subsequent flood events in the Alpine region was set up. Based on probabilistic and deterministic atmospheric and hydrological models as well as on nowcasting tools, warnings were issued for specified river catchments. The forecast data of the participating numerical models, including high resolution convection resolving models and models with parameterized convection, are stored in a central data archive in the World Data Center for Climate in Hamburg. They provide a huge amount of data which is well suited to investigate the use of atmospheric/hydrological models for flood forecasting in mountainous regions. Various methods are applied to get an objective verification of the model forecasts and their ability to correctly predict precipitation amounts and spatial patterns. The focus is hereby on a comparison of models with different horizontal mesh-sizes. The evaluation is done for the full D-PHASE observation period (DOP, June - November 2007) and for the whole D-PHASE domain covering basically the Alpine region. Amongst others, neighborhood verification techniques, where the forecast is evaluated on increasing spatial scales by defining an event based on the statistics of moving window domains, are applied with gridded VERA data serving as reference observation. The respective VERA analyses have been calculated by the University of Vienna based on the Joint D-PHASE/COPS (JDC) data consisting of more than 1000 GTS stations and more than 10000 non-GTS stations collected from national and regional weather services of Central Europe. A key feature of VERA is that no first guess is necessary to run the analysis - this makes the system Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model independent and therefore suitable for verification. This way, the multi-model ensemble of NWP models contributing to D-PHASE is evaluated for the highly

  20. Weather Research and Forecasting Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System: WRFDA

    SciTech Connect

    Barker, D.; Huang, X. Y.; Liu, Z. Q.; Auligne, T.; Zhang, X.; Rugg, S.; Ajjaji, R.; Bourgeois, A.; Bray, J.; Chen, Y. S.; Demirtas, M.; Guo, Y. R.; Henderson, T.; Huang, W.; Lin, H. C.; Michalakes, J.; Rizvi, S.; Zhang, X. Y.

    2012-06-01

    Data assimilation is the process by which observations are combined with short-range NWP model output to produce an analysis of the state of the atmosphere at a specified time. Since its inception in the late 1990s, the multiagency Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model effort has had a strong data assimilation component, dedicating two working groups to the subject. This article documents the history of the WRF data assimilation effort, and discusses the challenges associated with balancing academic, research, and operational data assimilation requirements in the context of the WRF effort to date. The WRF Model's Community Variational/Ensemble Data Assimilation System (WRFDA) has evolved over the past 10 years, and has resulted in over 30 refereed publications to date, as well as implementation in a wide range of real-time and operational NWP systems.

  1. Combining multi-objective optimization and bayesian model averaging to calibrate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models

    SciTech Connect

    Vrugt, Jasper A; Wohling, Thomas

    2008-01-01

    Most studies in vadose zone hydrology use a single conceptual model for predictive inference and analysis. Focusing on the outcome of a single model is prone to statistical bias and underestimation of uncertainty. In this study, we combine multi-objective optimization and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models. To illustrate our method, we use observed tensiometric pressure head data at three different depths in a layered vadose zone of volcanic origin in New Zealand. A set of seven different soil hydraulic models is calibrated using a multi-objective formulation with three different objective functions that each measure the mismatch between observed and predicted soil water pressure head at one specific depth. The Pareto solution space corresponding to these three objectives is estimated with AMALGAM, and used to generate four different model ensembles. These ensembles are post-processed with BMA and used for predictive analysis and uncertainty estimation. Our most important conclusions for the vadose zone under consideration are: (1) the mean BMA forecast exhibits similar predictive capabilities as the best individual performing soil hydraulic model, (2) the size of the BMA uncertainty ranges increase with increasing depth and dryness in the soil profile, (3) the best performing ensemble corresponds to the compromise (or balanced) solution of the three-objective Pareto surface, and (4) the combined multi-objective optimization and BMA framework proposed in this paper is very useful to generate forecast ensembles of soil hydraulic models.

  2. Prediction of East Asian Summer Tropospheric Temperature in ENSEMBLES Multi-model Seasonal Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, L.; Zhou, T.

    2012-12-01

    Based on the ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts system in Stream 2 starting from 1st May, the predictability of East Asian summer tropospheric temperature (EASTT) changes during 1960-2005 are examined. The results show that multi-model ensemble (MME) can reasonably predict the interannual variability of EASTT. The hindcast skills over the Tropics are higher than that over the mid-latitude and the predictability of tropospheric mean temperature is higher than any single layer temperature. Compared to temperature at 200-hPa and 850-hPa, the skill of temperature at 500-hPa is the highest. The interannual variations of temperature predicted by MME are weaker than NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, partly due to weakly-predicted climatology. The prediction skills exhibit obvious interannual variations. High prediction skill years witness strong negative temperature anomalies over East Asia, while low prediction skill years see positive (negative) Z200 anomalies over Korea-Japan (west to 100°E) and cold (warm) anomalies at 200-hPa (850-hPa). The prediction skill highly depends on predictabilities of both the strength and phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). When sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) is stronger in the initial month and no ENSO phase transits during the forecast period, the EASTT tends to be well predicted. When SSTA is not strong or there is ENSO phase transition, the predictability would be low. Therefore, a better prediction of ENSO is the precondition for a better prediction of EASTT. Examination on the predicted surface temperature and precipitation anomalies during high and low prediction skill years shows that the prediction skill of the upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies is higher than that on the surface.

  3. Ensemble downscaling in coupled solar wind-magnetosphere modeling for space weather forecasting

    PubMed Central

    Owens, M J; Horbury, T S; Wicks, R T; McGregor, S L; Savani, N P; Xiong, M

    2014-01-01

    Advanced forecasting of space weather requires simulation of the whole Sun-to-Earth system, which necessitates driving magnetospheric models with the outputs from solar wind models. This presents a fundamental difficulty, as the magnetosphere is sensitive to both large-scale solar wind structures, which can be captured by solar wind models, and small-scale solar wind “noise,” which is far below typical solar wind model resolution and results primarily from stochastic processes. Following similar approaches in terrestrial climate modeling, we propose statistical “downscaling” of solar wind model results prior to their use as input to a magnetospheric model. As magnetospheric response can be highly nonlinear, this is preferable to downscaling the results of magnetospheric modeling. To demonstrate the benefit of this approach, we first approximate solar wind model output by smoothing solar wind observations with an 8 h filter, then add small-scale structure back in through the addition of random noise with the observed spectral characteristics. Here we use a very simple parameterization of noise based upon the observed probability distribution functions of solar wind parameters, but more sophisticated methods will be developed in the future. An ensemble of results from the simple downscaling scheme are tested using a model-independent method and shown to add value to the magnetospheric forecast, both improving the best estimate and quantifying the uncertainty. We suggest a number of features desirable in an operational solar wind downscaling scheme. Key Points Solar wind models must be downscaled in order to drive magnetospheric models Ensemble downscaling is more effective than deterministic downscaling The magnetosphere responds nonlinearly to small-scale solar wind fluctuations PMID:26213518

  4. A regional ensemble forecast system for stratiform precipitation events in the Northern China Region. Part II: Seasonal evaluation for summer 2010

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Jiangshan; Kong, Fanyou; Lei, Hengchi

    2013-01-01

    In this study, the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences — regional ensemble forecast system (IAP-REFS) described in Part I was further validated through a 65-day experiment using the summer season of 2010. The verification results show that IAP-REFS is skillful for quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPF) and probabilistic QPF, but it has a systematic bias in forecasting near-surface variables. Applying a 7-day running mean bias correction to the forecasts of near-surface variables remarkably improved the reliability of the forecasts. In this study, the perturbation extraction and inflation method (proposed with the single case study in Part I) was further applied to the full season with different inflation factors. This method increased the ensemble spread and improved the accuracy of forecasts of precipitation and near-surface variables. The seasonal mean profiles of the IAP-REFS ensemble indicate good spread among ensemble members and some model biases at certain vertical levels.

  5. On the combination of Stochastic Pertubation of Physical Tendencies and parameter perturbation for convection-permitting ensemble forecast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marsigli, Chiara; Montani, Andrea; Paccagnella, Tiziana; Torrisi, Lucio; Marcucci, Francesca

    2016-04-01

    A convection-permitting ensemble based on the COSMO model (COSMO-IT-EPS) has been developed for Italy. The ensemble is run at 2.8 km of horizontal resolution, with 10 members, and receive initial and boundary conditions from a coarser resolution ensemble covering the entire Mediterranean area. A deficiency in the spread/skill relation of the ensemble in terms of near-surface weather parameter had been found in a previous study, in agreement with results reported in literature for similar limited-area ensemble systems. In order to address this issue, the physics perturbation methodology applied to the ensemble is here studied, with the aim of combining different sources of model uncertainties. Three configurations of the ensemble have been run for one month period in Autumn 2015: i) a control configuration, which is a pure downs