Science.gov

Sample records for estimated health risks

  1. Estimating risk.

    PubMed

    2016-07-01

    A free mobile phone app has been launched providing nurses and other hospital clinicians with a simple way to identify high-risk surgical patients. The app is a phone version of the Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT), originally developed for online use with computers by researchers from the National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death and the University College London Hospital Surgical Outcomes Research Centre. SORT uses information about patients' health and planned surgical procedures to estimate the risk of death within 30 days of an operation. The percentages are only estimates, taking into account the general risks of the procedures and some information about patients, and should not be confused with patient-specific estimates in individual cases. PMID:27369709

  2. Sensitivity of health risk estimates to air quality adjustment procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G.

    1997-06-30

    This letter is a summary of risk results associated with exposure estimates using two-parameter Weibull and quadratic air quality adjustment procedures (AQAPs). New exposure estimates were developed for children and child-occurrences, six urban areas, and five alternative air quality scenarios. In all cases, the Weibull and quadratic results are compared to previous results, which are based on a proportional AQAP.

  3. Health risks in wastewater irrigation: comparing estimates from quantitative microbial risk analyses and epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Mara, D D; Sleigh, P A; Blumenthal, U J; Carr, R M

    2007-03-01

    The combination of standard quantitative microbial risk analysis (QMRA) techniques and 10,000-trial Monte Carlo risk simulations was used to estimate the human health risks associated with the use of wastewater for unrestricted and restricted crop irrigation. A risk of rotavirus infection of 10(-2) per person per year (pppy) was used as the reference level of acceptable risk. Using the model scenario of involuntary soil ingestion for restricted irrigation, the risk of rotavirus infection is approximately 10(-2) pppy when the wastewater contains < or =10(6) Escherichia coli per 100ml and when local agricultural practices are highly mechanised. For labour-intensive agriculture the risk of rotavirus infection is approximately 10(-2) pppy when the wastewater contains < or = 10(5) E. coli per 100ml; however, the wastewater quality should be < or = 10(4) E. coli per 100ml when children under 15 are exposed. With the model scenario of lettuce consumption for unrestricted irrigation, the use of wastewaters containing < or =10(4) E. coli per 100ml results in a rotavirus infection risk of approximately 10(-2) pppy; however, again based on epidemiological evidence from Mexico, the current WHO guideline level of < or =1,000 E. coli per 100ml should be retained for root crops eaten raw. PMID:17402278

  4. Estimated human health risks of disposing of nonhazardous oil field waste in salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-09-01

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. In this assessment, several steps were used to evaluate potential human health risks: identifying potential contaminants of concern, determining how humans could be exposed to these contaminants, assessing the contaminants` toxicities, estimating contaminant intakes, and, finally, calculating human cancer and noncancer risks.

  5. Radiation risk estimation models

    SciTech Connect

    Hoel, D.G.

    1987-11-01

    Cancer risk models and their relationship to ionizing radiation are discussed. There are many model assumptions and risk factors that have a large quantitative impact on the cancer risk estimates. Other health end points such as mental retardation may be an even more serious risk than cancer for those with in utero exposures. 8 references.

  6. Estimating risk at a Superfund site using passive sampling devices as biological surrogates in human health risk models

    PubMed Central

    Allan, Sarah E.; Sower, Gregory J.; Anderson, Kim A.

    2013-01-01

    Passive sampling devices (PSDs) sequester the freely dissolved fraction of lipophilic contaminants, mimicking passive chemical uptake and accumulation by biomembranes and lipid tissues. Public Health Assessments that inform the public about health risks from exposure to contaminants through consumption of resident fish are generally based on tissue data, which can be difficulties to obtain and requires destructive sampling. The purpose of this study is to apply PSD data in a Public Health Assessment to demonstrate that PSDs can be used as a biological surrogate to evaluate potential human health risks and elucidate spatio-temporal variations in risk. PSDs were used to measure polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the Willamette River; upriver, downriver and within the Portland Harbor Superfund megasite for three years during wet and dry seasons. Based on an existing Public Health Assessment for this area, concentrations of PAHs in PSDs were substituted for fish tissue concentrations. PSD measured PAH concentrations captured the magnitude, range and variability of PAH concentrations reported for fish/shellfish from Portland Harbor. Using PSD results in place of fish data revealed an unacceptable risk level for cancer in all seasons but no unacceptable risk for non-cancer endpoints. Estimated cancer risk varied by several orders of magnitude based on season and location. Sites near coal tar contamination demonstrated the highest risk, particularly during the dry season and remediation activities. Incorporating PSD data into Public Health Assessments provides specific spatial and temporal contaminant exposure information that can assist public health professionals in evaluating human health risks. PMID:21741671

  7. Prevalence Estimates of Health Risk Behaviors of Immigrant Latino Men Who Have Sex with Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rhodes, Scott D.; McCoy, Thomas P.; Hergenrather, Kenneth C.; Vissman, Aaron T.; Wolfson, Mark; Alonzo, Jorge; Bloom, Fred R.; Alegria-Ortega, Jose; Eng, Eugenia

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: Little is known about the health status of rural immigrant Latino men who have sex with men (MSM). These MSM comprise a subpopulation that tends to remain "hidden" from both researchers and practitioners. This study was designed to estimate the prevalence of tobacco, alcohol, and drug use, and sexual risk behaviors of Latino MSM living in…

  8. Estimation of Hypertension Risk from Lifestyle Factors and Health Profile: A Case Study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Hypertension is a highly prevalent risk factor for cardiovascular disease and it can also lead to other diseases which seriously harm the human health. Screening the risks and finding a clinical model for estimating the risk of onset, maintenance, or the prognosis of hypertension are of great importance to the prevention or treatment of the disease, especially if the indicator can be derived from simple health profile. In this study, we investigate a chronic disease questionnaire data set of 6563 rural citizens in East China and find out a clinical signature that can assess the risk of hypertension easily and accurately. The signature achieves an accuracy of about 83% on the external test dataset, with an AUC of 0.91. Our study demonstrates that a combination of simple lifestyle features can sufficiently reflect the risk of hypertension onset. This finding provides potential guidance for disease prevention and control as well as development of home care and home-care technologies. PMID:25019099

  9. The economic value of reducing environmental health risks: Contingent valuation estimates of the value of information

    SciTech Connect

    Krieger, D.J.; Hoehn, J.P.

    1999-05-01

    Obtaining economically consistent values for changes in low probability health risks continues to be a challenge for contingent valuation (CV) as well as for other valuation methods. One of the cited condition for economic consistency is that estimated values be sensitive to the scope (differences in quantity or quality) of a good described in a CV application. The alleged limitations of CV pose a particular problem for environmental managers who must often make decisions that affect human health risks. This paper demonstrates that a well-designed CV application can elicit scope sensitive values even for programs that provide conceptually complex goods such as risk reduction. Specifically, it finds that the amount sport anglers are willing to pay for information about chemical residues in fish varies systematically with informativeness--a relationship suggested by the theory of information value.

  10. Quantitative microbial risk assessment combined with hydrodynamic modelling to estimate the public health risk associated with bathing after rainfall events.

    PubMed

    Eregno, Fasil Ejigu; Tryland, Ingun; Tjomsland, Torulv; Myrmel, Mette; Robertson, Lucy; Heistad, Arve

    2016-04-01

    This study investigated the public health risk from exposure to infectious microorganisms at Sandvika recreational beaches, Norway and dose-response relationships by combining hydrodynamic modelling with Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). Meteorological and hydrological data were collected to produce a calibrated hydrodynamic model using Escherichia coli as an indicator of faecal contamination. Based on average concentrations of reference pathogens (norovirus, Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia and Cryptosporidium) relative to E. coli in Norwegian sewage from previous studies, the hydrodynamic model was used for simulating the concentrations of pathogens at the local beaches during and after a heavy rainfall event, using three different decay rates. The simulated concentrations were used as input for QMRA and the public health risk was estimated as probability of infection from a single exposure of bathers during the three consecutive days after the rainfall event. The level of risk on the first day after the rainfall event was acceptable for the bacterial and parasitic reference pathogens, but high for the viral reference pathogen at all beaches, and severe at Kalvøya-small and Kalvøya-big beaches, supporting the advice of avoiding swimming in the day(s) after heavy rainfall. The study demonstrates the potential of combining discharge-based hydrodynamic modelling with QMRA in the context of bathing water as a tool to evaluate public health risk and support beach management decisions. PMID:26802355

  11. Estimating health risk from exposure to 1,4-dioxane in Japan.

    PubMed

    Makino, Ryoji; Kawasaki, Hajime; Kishimoto, Atsuo; Gamo, Masashi; Nakanishi, Junko

    2006-01-01

    Exposure to 1,4-dioxane from the atmosphere around high-emission plants and from consumer products used in daily life that contain the substance may have adverse health effects; however, its emission into the atmosphere is not regulated. In this study, the health risk posed by 1,4-dioxane is assessed to investigate whether measures should be undertaken to reduce exposure to 1,4-dioxane. The notion of the margin of exposure (MOE), given by the ratio of no observed adverse effect level (NOAEL) to actual or projected exposure level, is used to assess risk. In exposure assessment, two types of exposure channel are considered: (a) the use of consumer products that contain 1,4-dioxane and (b) the inhalation of air around high-emission plants. To estimate exposure via channel (a), we measured the concentration of 1,4-dioxane in consumer products and estimated the interindividual variability of exposure by Monte Carlo simulation that reflects the measured data. To estimate exposure via channel (b), we employed a local-level atmospheric dispersion model to estimate the concentration of 1,4-dioxane immediately around high-emission plants. For hazard assessment, we derived the inhalatory and oral NOAELs for liver adenomas and carcinomas and the uncertainty factor. The results suggest that measures are not needed to reduce exposure to 1,4-dioxane from consumer products. As for inhalation exposure around high-emission plants, some residents may be exposed to health risks if certain conservative analytical conditions are assumed. Even in this case, we conclude that it is not necessary for Plant A to stop the use of 1,4-dioxane immediately and that medium- to long-term emission reduction measures should be sufficient. PMID:16685251

  12. Risk estimates for deterministic health effects of inhaled weapons grade plutonium.

    PubMed

    Scott, Bobby R; Peterson, Vern L

    2003-09-01

    Risk estimates for deterministic effects of inhaled weapons-grade plutonium (WG Pu) are needed to evaluate potential serious harm to (1) U.S. Department of Energy nuclear workers from accidental or other work-place releases of WG Pu; and (2) the public from terrorist actions resulting in the release of WG Pu to the environment. Deterministic health effects (the most serious radiobiological consequences to humans) can arise when large amounts of WG Pu are taken into the body. Inhalation is considered the most likely route of intake during work-place accidents or during a nuclear terrorism incident releasing WG Pu to the environment. Our current knowledge about radiation-related harm is insufficient for generating precise estimates of risk for a given WG Pu exposure scenario. This relates largely to uncertainties associated with currently available risk and dosimetry models. Thus, rather than generating point estimates of risk, distributions that account for variability/uncertainty are needed to properly characterize potential harm to humans from a given WG Pu exposure scenario. In this manuscript, we generate and summarize risk distributions for deterministic radiation effects in the lungs of nuclear workers from inhaled WG Pu particles (standard isotopic mix). These distributions were developed using NUREG/CR-4214 risk models and time-dependent, dose conversion factor data based on Publication 30 of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 30 are more relevant to deterministic effects than are the dose conversion factors based on ICRP Publication 66, which relate to targets for stochastic effects. Risk distributions that account for NUREG/CR-4214 parameter and model uncertainties were generated using the Monte Carlo method. Risks were evaluated for both lethality (from radiation pneumonitis) and morbidity (due to radiation-induced respiratory dysfunction) and were found to depend strongly on absorbed

  13. Waste management programmatic environmental impact statement methodology for estimating human health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Bergenback, B.; Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.L.

    1995-05-01

    The US Department of Energy (DOE) has produced large quantities of radioactive and hazardous waste during years of nuclear weapons production. As a result, a large number of sites across the DOE Complex have become chemically and/or radiologically contaminated. In 1990, the Secretary of Energy charged the DOE Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste management (EM) with the task of preparing a Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS). The PEIS should identify and assess the potential environmental impacts of implementing several integrated Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM) alternatives. The determination and integration of appropriate remediation activities and sound waste management practices is vital for ensuring the diminution of adverse human health impacts during site cleanup and waste management programs. This report documents the PEIS risk assessment methodology used to evaluate human health risks posed by WM activities. The methodology presents a programmatic cradle to grave risk assessment for EM program activities. A unit dose approach is used to estimate risks posed by WM activities and is the subject of this document.

  14. Health risks.

    PubMed

    Longstreth, J; de Gruijl, F R; Kripke, M L; Abseck, S; Arnold, F; Slaper, H I; Velders, G; Takizawa, Y; van der Leun, J C

    1998-10-01

    The health risks associated with ozone depletion will principally be those due to increased ultraviolet B (UV-B) radiation in the environment, i.e., increased damage to the eyes, the immune system, and the skin. Some new risks may also be introduced with the increased use of alternatives to the ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). Quantitative risk estimates are available for some of the UV-B-associated effects, e.g., cataract and skin cancer; however, the data are insufficient to develop similar estimates for effects such as immunosuppression and the toxicity of alternatives. Ocular damage from UV exposures includes effects on the cornea, lens, iris, and associated epithelial and conjunctival tissues. The most common acute ocular effect of environmental ultraviolet radiation (UVR) is photokeratitis. Also known as snowblindness in skiers, this condition also occurs in other outdoor recreationists. Chronic eye conditions likely to increase with ozone depletion include cataract, squamous cell carcinoma, ocular melanoma, and a variety of corneal/conjunctival effects, e.g., pterygium and pinguecula. Suppression of local (at the site of UV exposure) and systemic (at a distant, unexposed site) immune responses to a variety of antigens has been demonstrated in both humans and animals exposed to UV-B. In experiments with animals these effects have been shown to worsen the course/outcome of some infectious diseases and cancers. There is reasonably good evidence that such immunosuppression plays a role in human carcinogenesis; however, the implications of such immunosuppression for human infectious diseases are still unknown. In light-skinned populations, exposure to solar UVR appears to be the most important environmental risk factor for basal and squamous cell carcinomas and cutaneous melanoma. Originally it was believed that total accumulated exposure to UVR was the most important environmental factor in determining risk for these tumors. Recent information now suggests

  15. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios

    PubMed Central

    Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A.; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

    2014-01-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

  16. The Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl and Its Use to Estimate the Health Impact of Public Health Policy Scenarios.

    PubMed

    Scarborough, Peter; Harrington, Richard A; Mizdrak, Anja; Zhou, Lijuan Marissa; Doherty, Aiden

    2014-01-01

    Noncommunicable disease (NCD) scenario models are an essential part of the public health toolkit, allowing for an estimate of the health impact of population-level interventions that are not amenable to assessment by standard epidemiological study designs (e.g., health-related food taxes and physical infrastructure projects) and extrapolating results from small samples to the whole population. The PRIME (Preventable Risk Integrated ModEl) is an openly available NCD scenario model that estimates the effect of population-level changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol and tobacco consumption on NCD mortality. The structure and methods employed in the PRIME are described here in detail, including the development of open source code that will support a PRIME web application to be launched in 2015. This paper reviews scenario results from eleven papers that have used the PRIME, including estimates of the impact of achieving government recommendations for healthy diets, health-related food taxes and subsidies, and low-carbon diets. Future challenges for NCD scenario modelling, including the need for more comparisons between models and the improvement of future prediction of NCD rates, are also discussed. PMID:25328757

  17. Estimating the Influence of Oil and Gas Emissions on Urban Ozone and Associated Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Capps, S.; Nsanzineza, R.; Turner, M. D.; Henze, D. K.; Zhao, S.; Russell, M. G.; Hakami, A.; Milford, J. B.

    2015-12-01

    Tropospheric ozone (O3) degrades air quality, impacting human health and public welfare. The National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) is designed to limit these impacts, but certain areas in the continental U.S. exceed this standard. Mitigating O3 NAAQS exceedances by designing emissions controls can be complicated in urban areas because of the long-range transport of ozone and its gaseous precursors as well as the complex mix of local emissions sources. Recent growth of unconventional oil and gas development near urban areas in Colorado, Texas, and the northeastern corridor has exacerbated this problem. To estimate the contribution of emissions from oil and gas development to urban O3 issues, we apply the CMAQ adjoint, which efficiently elucidates the relative influence of emissions sources on select concentration-based metrics. Specifically, the adjoint is used to calculate the spatially-specific relative contributions of emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) throughout the continental U.S. to O3 NAAQS exceedances and to ozone-related health risks in select urban areas. By evaluating these influences for different urban areas, including one in California that has been managing air quality with adjacent oil and gas development for a longer period of time, we are able to compare and contrast the emissions control strategies that may be more effective in particular regions. Additionally, the resulting relationships between emissions and concentrations provide a way to project ozone impacts when measurements provide refined estimates of emissions from this sector.

  18. Combining Radiation Epidemiology With Molecular Biology-Changing From Health Risk Estimates to Therapeutic Intervention.

    PubMed

    Abend, Michael; Port, Matthias

    2016-08-01

    The authors herein summarize six presentations dedicated to the key session "molecular radiation epidemiology" of the ConRad meeting 2015. These presentations were chosen in order to highlight the promise when combining conventional radiation epidemiology with molecular biology. Conventional radiation epidemiology uses dose estimates for risk predictions on health. However, combined with molecular biology, dose-dependent bioindicators of effect hold the promise to improve clinical diagnostics and to provide target molecules for potential therapeutic intervention. One out of the six presentations exemplified the use of radiation-induced molecular changes as biomarkers of exposure by measuring stabile chromosomal translocations. The remaining five presentations focused on molecular changes used as bioindicators of the effect. These bioindicators of the effect could be used for diagnostic purposes on colon cancers (genomic instability), thyroid cancer (CLIP2), or head and neck squamous cell cancers. Therapeutic implications of gene expression changes were examined in Chernobyl thyroid cancer victims and Mayak workers. PMID:27356062

  19. Health risk estimates for groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic: a convenient tool for identification and mapping of risk areas.

    PubMed

    Fajčíková, K; Cvečková, V; Stewart, A; Rapant, S

    2014-10-01

    We undertook a quantitative estimation of health risks to residents living in the Slovak Republic and exposed to contaminated groundwater (ingestion by adult population) and/or soils (ingestion by adult and child population). Potential risk areas were mapped to give a visual presentation at basic administrative units of the country (municipalities, districts, regions) for easy discussion with policy and decision-makers. The health risk estimates were calculated by US EPA methods, applying threshold values for chronic risk and non-threshold values for cancer risk. The potential health risk was evaluated for As, Ba, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, NO3 (-), Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for groundwater and As, B, Ba, Be, Cd, Cu, F, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se and Zn for soils. An increased health risk was identified mainly in historical mining areas highly contaminated by geogenic-anthropogenic sources (ore deposit occurrence, mining, metallurgy). Arsenic and antimony were the most significant elements in relation to health risks from groundwater and soil contamination in the Slovak Republic contributing a significant part of total chronic risk levels. Health risk estimation for soil contamination has highlighted the significance of exposure through soil ingestion in children. Increased cancer risks from groundwater and soil contamination by arsenic were noted in several municipalities and districts throughout the country in areas with significantly high arsenic levels in the environment. This approach to health risk estimations and visualization represents a fast, clear and convenient tool for delineation of risk areas at national and local levels. PMID:24729053

  20. Use of health effect risk estimates and uncertainty in formal regulatory proceedings: a case study involving atmospheric particulates

    SciTech Connect

    Habegger, L.J.; Oezkaynak, A.H.

    1984-01-01

    Coal combustion particulates are released to the atmosphere by power plants supplying electrical to the nuclear fuel cycle. This paper presents estimates of the public health risks associated with the release of these particulates at a rate associated with the annual nuclear fuel production requirements for a nuclear power plan. Utilization of these risk assessments as a new component in the formal evaluation of total risks from nuclear power plants is discussed. 23 references, 3 tables.

  1. Impact of Pesticide Exposure Misclassification on Estimates of Related Risks in the Agricultural Health Study

    EPA Science Inventory

    Background: The Agricultural Health Study (AHS) is a prospective study of licensed pesticide applicators (largely fanners) and their spouses in Iowa and North Carolina. We evaluate the impact of occupational pesticide exposure misclassification on relative risks using data from t...

  2. Biomarkers of exposure versus parameters of external exposure; practical applications in estimating health risks.

    PubMed

    Verberk, M M

    1995-07-26

    To estimate the health risk of a specific part of the population due to an environmental factor, the exposure can be measured and consecutively evaluated by means of toxicity data from the literature. To facilitate the choice between parameters of external exposure (ExEx) versus biomarkers of exposure (BmEx), a guideline is proposed, which consists of eleven considerations. (1) Local effects (directly on airways, eyes or skin) usually require ExEx, whereas systemic effects call for BmEx. (2) Determination of the contribution of a specific, environmental source among multiple, e.g., non-environmental sources of a substance calls for ExEx. (3) The availability of a reliable exposure-response relationship for the effect considered and of a health-based limit value; theoretically a relationship based on BmEx can be more reliable. (4) The possibility to determine reliably the exposure data that are needed, depending on the time and duration of the sampling with respect to the pattern of the external exposure, on the number of samples, and the toxicokinetic properties. (5) Inconvenient route of entry points to BmEx. (6) The presence of a group at risk due to intake-related behaviour or toxicokinetics calls for BmEx. (7) In the case of non-specificity of BmEx due to other substances the increase or decrease of the effect predicting value should be evaluated. (8) Substantial probability of effects calls for BmEx. (9) Feasibility of sampling technique and reliability of the analysis. (10) Acceptance by the public points to BmEx. (11) Cost-effectiveness. Several examples illustrate this guideline. PMID:7631319

  3. Estimated effect of ventilation and filtration on chronic health risks in U.S. offices, schools, and retail stores.

    PubMed

    Chan, W R; Parthasarathy, S; Fisk, W J; McKone, T E

    2016-04-01

    We assessed the chronic health risks from inhalation exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and particulate matter (PM2.5) in U.S. offices, schools, grocery, and other retail stores and evaluated how chronic health risks were affected by changes in ventilation rates and air filtration efficiency. Representative concentrations of VOCs and PM2.5 were obtained from available data. Using a mass balance model, changes in exposure to VOCs and PM2.5 were predicted if ventilation rate were to increase or decrease by a factor of two, and if higher efficiency air filters were used. Indoor concentrations were compared to health guidelines to estimate percentage exceedances. The estimated chronic health risks associated with VOC and PM2.5 exposures in these buildings were low relative to the risks from exposures in homes. Chronic health risks were driven primarily by exposures to PM2.5 that were evaluated using disease incidence of mortality, chronic bronchitis, and non-fatal stroke. The leading cancer risk factor was exposure to formaldehyde. Using disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to account for both cancer and non-cancer effects, results suggest that increasing ventilation alone is ineffective at reducing chronic health burdens. Other strategies, such as pollutant source control and the use of particle filtration, should also be considered. PMID:25639183

  4. EPA Workshop on Temporal Exposure Issues for Environmental Pollutants: Health Effects and Methodologies for Estimating Risk (January 2016)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA hosted a workshop to explore the state-of-the-science regarding the influence of duration and time-dependent concentrations or doses on a range of endpoints (health effects) and best practices for estimating risk. Additionally, the agency sought to advance the development ...

  5. EPA Workshop on Temporal Exposure Issues for Environmental Pollutants: Health Effects and Methodologies for Estimating Risk (January 2016)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA hosted a workshop to explore the state-of-the-science regarding the influence of duration and time-dependent concentrations or doses on a range of endpoints (health effects) and best practices for estimating risk. Additionally, the agency sought to advance the development ...

  6. EPA Workshop on Temporal Exposure Issues for Environmental Pollutants: Health Effects and Methodologies for Estimating Risk (January 2016)

    EPA Science Inventory

    EPA intends to explore the state-of-the-science regarding the influence of duration and time-dependent concentrations or doses on a range of endpoints (health effects) and best practices for estimating risk. Additionally, the agency aims to advance the development of methods f...

  7. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-01

    The radionuclides of 226Ra, 232Th and 40K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10-3 (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  8. Measurement of natural radionuclides in Malaysian bottled mineral water and consequent health risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Priharti, W.; Samat, S. B.; Yasir, M. S.

    2015-09-25

    The radionuclides of {sup 226}Ra, {sup 232}Th and {sup 40}K were measured in ten mineral water samples, of which from the radioactivity obtained, the ingestion doses for infants, children and adults were calculated and the cancer risk for the adult was estimated. Results showed that the calculated ingestion doses for the three age categories are much lower than the average worldwide ingestion exposure of 0.29 mSv/y and the estimated cancer risk is much lower than the cancer risk of 8.40 × 10{sup −3} (estimated from the total natural radiation dose of 2.40 mSv/y). The present study concludes that the bottled mineral water produced in Malaysia is safe for daily human consumption.

  9. RISK ESTIMATES FOR DETERMINISTIC HEALTH EFFECTS OF INHALED WEAPONS GRADE PLUTONIUM

    EPA Science Inventory

    Risk estimates for deterministic effects of inhaled weapons-grade plutonium (WG Pu) are needed to evaluate potential serious harm to: (1) U. S. Department of Energy nuclear workers from accidental or other work-place releases of WG Pu; and (2) the public from terrorist actions re...

  10. Estimation of human health risk associated with the consumption of pesticide-contaminated vegetables from Kumasi, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Akoto, Osei; Gavor, Sandra; Appah, Martin K; Apau, Joseph

    2015-05-01

    Analysis of pesticides consisting of 12 organophosphates (OPs), 10 organochlorines (OCs), and 6 pyrethroids in vegetables from Kumasi was conducted. Vegetable samples comprising 20 each of eggplants, okra, and tomatoes were analyzed. The method involves solvent extraction of pesticide residues followed by cleanup using silica gel. Residue analysis was carried out using a GC equipped with pulsed flame photometric detector for OP residues and electron capture detector for OC and pyrethroid residues. The results revealed that methamidophos exceeded the maximum residue limits (MRLs) in all vegetable commodities. Levels of malathion and dimethoate also exceeded the MRLs in eggplant and tomato samples. Endrin, α-endosulfan, γ-hexachlorocyclohexane (HCH), γ-chlordane, and heptachlor exceeded their MRLs in okra samples whereas methoxychlor, allethrin, and deltamethrin exceeded in eggplant samples. Health risk estimation revealed that dimethoate in tomato and endrin, heptachlor, γ-HCH, and γ-chlordane in okra could not pose potential toxicity to the consumer. The combined risk index showed no health risk to consumers due to intake of pyrethroid OC and OP residue on these vegetables. The overall risk index for combined pesticides due to consumption of all the vegetables was higher than 1, which signifies potential health risk to consumers. OPs were the major risk contributor for both eggplant and tomatoes which accounted for 87.78 and 95.84%, respectively, of the combined risk of pesticides in the vegetables. However, OC with 97.94% of the combined risk index was the major risk contributor for the okra. The carcinogenic risk of the OCs in okra was of no concern since their carcinogenic rates were below the acceptable risk level. PMID:25864079

  11. Estimating Health Services Requirements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Alexander, H. M.

    1985-01-01

    In computer program NOROCA populations statistics from National Center for Health Statistics used with computational procedure to estimate health service utilization rates, physician demands (by specialty) and hospital bed demands (by type of service). Computational procedure applicable to health service area of any size and even used to estimate statewide demands for health services.

  12. Estimation of bioaccessibility and potential human health risk of mercury in Chinese patent medicines.

    PubMed

    Liu, Lihong; Zhang, Yu; Yun, Zhaojun; He, Bin; Jiang, Guibin

    2016-01-01

    Mercury (Hg), mainly in cinnabar species, has been used in medicine for thousands of years in China, and worldwide concern has been raised on its toxicity. In this work, the amount of bioaccessible mercury in 16 Chinese patent medicines (CPMs) was measured by using an in vitro simulated digestion system, consisting of simulated gastric and intestinal fluid, to investigate the bioavailability of mercury in CPMs and evaluate its potential risk to human health. Total mercury and mercury in the gastrointestinal extracts were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). The levels of total Hg in 16 CPMs ranged from not detected to 11.89 mg/g, with a mean value of 1.13 mg/g, while the extractable Hg ranged from not detected to 4.37 μg/g, with a mean value of 0.42 μg/g. Mercury bioaccessibility varied significantly in the investigated CPMs, depending on the ingredient. Compared to the CPMs without cinnabar (2.5%-30.9%), the percentage of mercury in the gastrointestinal supernatants for CPMs with cinnabar was quite a bit lower (0.037%). By comparing with the Food and Agricultural Organization/World Health Organization Joint Expert Committee on Food Additives (FAO/WHO) safety guideline, the average daily intake dose (ADD) of Hg in the medicines was then calculated to access the risk of mercury to human health from taking CPMs. PMID:26899642

  13. Estimating the Return on Investment From a Health Risk Management Program Offered to Small Colorado-Based Employers

    PubMed Central

    Goetzel, Ron Z.; Tabrizi, Maryam; Henke, Rachel Mosher; Benevent, Richele; Brockbank, Claire v. S.; Stinson, Kaylan; Trotter, Margo; Newman, Lee S.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To determine whether changes in health risks for workers in small businesses can produce medical and productivity cost savings. Methods A 1-year pre- and posttest study tracked changes in 10 modifiable health risks for 2458 workers at 121 Colorado businesses that participated in a comprehensive worksite health promotion program. Risk reductions were entered into a return-on-investment (ROI) simulation model. Results Reductions were recorded in 10 risk factors examined, including obesity (−2.0%), poor eating habits (−5.8%), poor physical activity (−6.5%), tobacco use (−1.3%), high alcohol consumption (−1.7%), high stress (−3.5%), depression (−2.3%), high blood pressure (−0.3%), high total cholesterol (−0.9%), and high blood glucose (−0.2%). The ROI model estimated medical and productivity savings of $2.03 for every $1.00 invested. Conclusions Pooled data suggest that small businesses can realize a positive ROI from effective risk reduction programs. PMID:24806569

  14. Estimating NOA Health Risks from Selected Construction Activities at the Calaveras Dam Replacement Project (CDRP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez, D. W.

    2012-12-01

    The CDRP is a major construction project involving up to 400 workers using heavy earth moving equipment, blasting, drilling, rock crushing, and other techniques designed to move 7 million yards of earth. Much of this material is composed of serpentinite, blueschist, and other rocks that contain chrysotile, crocidolite, actinolite, tremolite, and Libby-class amphiboles. To date, over 1,000 personal, work area, and emission inventory related samples have been collected and analyzed by NIOSH 7400, NIOSH 7402, and CARB-AHERA methodology. Data indicate that various CDRP construction activities have the potential to generate significant mineral fibers and structures that could represent elevated on site and off site health risks. This presentation will review the Contractors air monitoring program for this major project, followed by a discussion of predictive methods to evaluate potential onsite and offsite risks. Ultimately, the data are used for planning control strategies designed to achieve a Project Action Level of 0.01 f/cc (one tenth the Cal/OSHA PEL) and risk-based offsite target levels.

  15. Determination of heavy metals in indoor dust from Istanbul, Turkey: estimation of the health risk.

    PubMed

    Kurt-Karakus, Perihan Binnur

    2012-12-01

    Levels of eight potentially toxic heavy metals in indoor dust from homes and offices in Istanbul were investigated. The concentrations of heavy metals in indoor dust from homes+office ranged from 62 to 1800 μgg(-1) for Cu, 3-200 μgg(-1) for Pb, 0.4-20 μgg(-1) for Cd, 210-2800 μgg(-1) for Zn, 2.8-460μgg(-1) for Cr, 8-1300μgg(-1) for Mn, 2.4-25μgg(-1) for Co, 120-2600μgg(-1) for Ni. Results of the study were comparable to other studies conducted on indoor dust and street dust from a variety of cities globally. Considering only ingestion + inhalation, the carcinogenic risk level of Cr for adults and children (3.7×10(-5) and 2.7×10(-5)) in Istanbul was in the range of EPA's safe limits (1×10(-6) and 1×10(-4)), indicating that cancer risk of Cr due to exposure to indoor dust in Istanbul can be acceptable. According to calculated Hazard Quotient (HQ), for non-cancer effects, the ingestion of indoor dust appears to be the major route of exposure to the indoor dust that results in a higher risk for heavy metals, followed by dermal contact and inhalation pathways. However, compared to ingestion and dermal contact exposure, exposure through inhalation is almost negligible. Hazard Index (HI) values for all studied elements were lower than safe limit of 1 and this result suggested that none of the population groups would likely to experience potential health risk due to exposure to heavy metals from indoor dust in the study area. PMID:23073482

  16. Estimation of the cardiovascular risk using World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) risk prediction charts in a rural population of South India

    PubMed Central

    Ghorpade, Arun Gangadhar; Shrivastava, Saurabh RamBihariLal; Kar, Sitanshu Sekhar; Sarkar, Sonali; Majgi, Sumanth Mallikarjuna; Roy, Gautam

    2015-01-01

    Background: World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts have been employed to predict the risk of cardiovascular outcome in heterogeneous settings. The aim of this research is to assess the prevalence of Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) risk factors and to estimate the cardiovascular risk among adults aged >40 years, utilizing the risk charts alone, and by the addition of other parameters. Methods: A cross-sectional study was performed in two of the villages availing health services of a medical college. Overall 570 subjects completed the assessment. The desired information was obtained using a pre-tested questionnaire and participants were also subjected to anthropometric measurements and laboratory investigations. The WHO/ISH risk prediction charts for the South-East Asian region was used to assess the cardiovascular risk among the study participants. Results: The study covered 570 adults aged above 40 years. The mean age of the subjects was 54.2 (±11.1) years and 53.3% subjects were women. Seventeen percent of the participants had moderate to high risk for the occurrence of cardiovascular events by using WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. In addition, CVD risk factors like smoking, alcohol, low High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol were found in 32%, 53%, 56.3%, and 61.5% study participants, respectively. Conclusion: Categorizing people as low (<10%)/moderate (10%-20%)/high (>20%) risk is one of the crucial steps to mitigate the magnitude of cardiovascular fatal/non-fatal outcome. This cross-sectional study indicates that there is a high burden of CVD risk in the rural Pondicherry as assessed by WHO/ISH risk prediction charts. Use of WHO/ISH charts is easy and inexpensive screening tool in predicting the cardiovascular event PMID:26340393

  17. Estimation of endotoxin inhalation from shower and humidifier exposure reveals potential risk to human health.

    PubMed

    Anderson, William B; George Dixon, D; Mayfield, Colin I

    2007-12-01

    This paper investigates potential exposure to endotoxin in drinking water through the inhalation of aerosols generated by showers and humidifiers. Adverse health effects attributable to the inhalation of airborne endotoxin in various occupational settings are summarized, as are controlled laboratory inhalation studies. Data from investigations estimating aerosolization of particulate matter by showers and humidifiers provide a basis for similar analyses with endotoxin, which like minerals in water, is nonvolatile. A theoretical assessment of the inhalation of aerosolized endotoxin showed that while the likelihood of an acute response while showering is minimal, the same is not true for humidifiers. Ultrasonic and impeller (cool mist) humidifiers efficiently produce large numbers of respirable particles. It is predicted that airway inflammation can occur if humidifier reservoirs are filled with tap water, sometimes even at typical drinking-water distribution-system endotoxin concentrations. Higher endotoxin levels occasionally found in drinking water (>1,000 EU/ml) are very likely to induce symptoms such as chills and fever if used as humidifier feed water. While it is unlikely that treated drinking water would contain extremely high endotoxin levels occasionally observed in cyanobacterial blooms (>35,000 EU/ml), the potential for serious acute health consequences exist if used in humidifiers. PMID:17878567

  18. Estimation of canine intestinal parasites in Córdoba (Spain) and their risk to public health.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Moreno, F J; Hernández, S; López-Cobos, E; Becerra, C; Acosta, I; Martínez-Moreno, A

    2007-01-19

    The prevalence of gastrointestinal parasites in dogs was studied in the province of Córdoba (southern Spain), with special attention to those parasites that can be transmitted to man. The experiment was completed with the examination of soil samples from public parks and city gardens. The study was carried out over a population of 1800 animals entered in the Control Animal Centre (CECA) by coprological methods, and within this group, 300 dogs were sacrificed and necropsied. The prevalence of any intestinal parasitic infection was 71.33%. The following parasites of the gastrointestinal tract were recorded: Isospora canis (22%), Isospora (Cystoisospora) spp. (10.22%), Sarcocystis (2.5%), Hammondia/Neospora (1.94%), Giardia canis (1%), Dipylidium caninum (13.2%), Taenia hydatigena (7.66%), Taenia pisiformis (4%), Uncinaria stenocephala (33.27%), Toxascaris leonina (14.94%), Toxocara canis (17.72%) and Trichuris vulpis (1.66%). Related to public health, it is important to point out the presence of T. canis only in puppies younger than one year and Uncinaria, more frequent in adult dogs. Soil samples of parks revealed the presence of eggs of Toxocara, and it suggests the existence of real risk for human infection. PMID:16971046

  19. Sensitivity study of six public health risk computation cases from the US Department of Energy risk- and cost-estimate process pilot study

    SciTech Connect

    Chamberlain, P.J. II; Droppo, J.G. Jr.; Castleton, K.J.; Eslinger, P.W.

    1993-09-01

    This report contains a description of the results from the analysis of the sensitivity of estimated public health risks to changes in model parameters relating to the contaminant source releases, contaminant transports, and human exposures contaminants from six waste sites. Estimated public health risks associated with these and other sites at US Department of Energy (DOE) compounds were reported in a pilot study done by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for the DOE (ORNL 1992). The objective of the sensitivity analysis was to identify the subset of model input parameters whose variations accounted for the majority of the variation in the computed public health risk values. All environmental modeling in this study and the pilot study done by ORNL (1992) was based on the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (Whelan et al. 1992). The results of the sensitivity analysis for the atmospheric case indicate that the most influential variables were emission rate and, to a lesser extent, population size. For groundwater cases, there was no consistent ordering of the influential variables. Depending on the case considered, some influential variables include the following: Equilibrium partition coefficient (K{sub d}), size of population, pore water velocity, constituent inventory, contaminant flux rate from source, and thickness of saturated zone. For the overland transport case, the regression model fit was not adequate for a reliable identification of the influential variables.

  20. Lifetime risk of stroke and impact of hypertension: estimates from the adult health study in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

    PubMed

    Takahashi, Ikuno; Geyer, Susan M; Nishi, Nobuo; Ohshita, Tomohiko; Takahashi, Tetsuya; Akahoshi, Masazumi; Fujiwara, Saeko; Kodama, Kazunori; Matsumoto, Masayasu

    2011-05-01

    Very few reports have been published on lifetime risk (LTR) of stroke by blood pressure (BP) group. This study included participants in the Radiation Effects Research Foundation Adult Health Study who have been followed up by biennial health examinations since 1958. We calculated the LTR of stroke for various BP-based groups among 7847 subjects who had not been diagnosed with stroke before the index age of 55 years using cumulative incidence analysis adjusting for competing risks. By 2003, 868 subjects had suffered stroke (512 (58.9%) were women and 542 (62.4%) experienced ischemic stroke). BP was a significant factor in determining risk of stroke for men and women, with distributions of cumulative risk for stroke significantly different across BP groups. The LTR of all-stroke for normotension (systolic BP/diastolic BP < 120/80 mm Hg), prehypertension (120-139/80-89 mm Hg), stage 1 hypertension (140-159/90-99 mm Hg) and stage 2 hypertension (> 160/100 mm Hg) were 13.8-16.9-25.8-25.8% in men and 16.0-19.9-24.0-30.5% in women, respectively (P < 0.001 among BP groups in both sexes). The estimates did not differ significantly (P = 0.16) between normotensive and prehypertensive subjects. One in five Japanese atomic bomb survivor subjects experienced stroke over their lifetime from the age of 55 years. Long-term stroke risks were elevated in those with hypertension (> 140/90 mm Hg) at any of the index ages of 45, 55, 65 and 75 years. PMID:21326305

  1. Injury Risk Estimation Expertise

    PubMed Central

    Petushek, Erich J.; Ward, Paul; Cokely, Edward T.; Myer, Gregory D.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Simple observational assessment of movement is a potentially low-cost method for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury screening and prevention. Although many individuals utilize some form of observational assessment of movement, there are currently no substantial data on group skill differences in observational screening of ACL injury risk. Purpose/Hypothesis: The purpose of this study was to compare various groups’ abilities to visually assess ACL injury risk as well as the associated strategies and ACL knowledge levels. The hypothesis was that sports medicine professionals would perform better than coaches and exercise science academics/students and that these subgroups would all perform better than parents and other general population members. Study Design: Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: A total of 428 individuals, including physicians, physical therapists, athletic trainers, strength and conditioning coaches, exercise science researchers/students, athletes, parents, and members of the general public participated in the study. Participants completed the ACL Injury Risk Estimation Quiz (ACL-IQ) and answered questions related to assessment strategy and ACL knowledge. Results: Strength and conditioning coaches, athletic trainers, physical therapists, and exercise science students exhibited consistently superior ACL injury risk estimation ability (+2 SD) as compared with sport coaches, parents of athletes, and members of the general public. The performance of a substantial number of individuals in the exercise sciences/sports medicines (approximately 40%) was similar to or exceeded clinical instrument-based biomechanical assessment methods (eg, ACL nomogram). Parents, sport coaches, and the general public had lower ACL-IQ, likely due to their lower ACL knowledge and to rating the importance of knee/thigh motion lower and weight and jump height higher. Conclusion: Substantial cross-professional/group differences in visual ACL

  2. Biased Exposure–Health Effect Estimates from Selection in Cohort Studies: Are Environmental Studies at Particular Risk?

    PubMed Central

    Sparrow, David; Hu, Howard; Power, Melinda C.

    2015-01-01

    Background The process of creating a cohort or cohort substudy may induce misleading exposure–health effect associations through collider stratification bias (i.e., selection bias) or bias due to conditioning on an intermediate. Studies of environmental risk factors may be at particular risk. Objectives We aimed to demonstrate how such biases of the exposure–health effect association arise and how one may mitigate them. Methods We used directed acyclic graphs and the example of bone lead and mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease) among 835 white men in the Normative Aging Study (NAS) to illustrate potential bias related to recruitment into the NAS and the bone lead substudy. We then applied methods (adjustment, restriction, and inverse probability of attrition weighting) to mitigate these biases in analyses using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Results Analyses adjusted for age at bone lead measurement, smoking, and education among all men found HRs (95% CI) for the highest versus lowest tertile of patella lead of 1.34 (0.90, 2.00), 1.46 (0.86, 2.48), and 2.01 (0.86, 4.68) for all-cause, cardiovascular, and ischemic heart disease mortality, respectively. After applying methods to mitigate the biases, the HR (95% CI) among the 637 men analyzed were 1.86 (1.12, 3.09), 2.47 (1.23, 4.96), and 5.20 (1.61, 16.8), respectively. Conclusions Careful attention to the underlying structure of the observed data is critical to identifying potential biases and methods to mitigate them. Understanding factors that influence initial study participation and study loss to follow-up is critical. Recruitment of population-based samples and enrolling participants at a younger age, before the potential onset of exposure-related health effects, can help reduce these potential pitfalls. Citation Weisskopf MG, Sparrow D, Hu H, Power MC. 2015. Biased exposure–health effect estimates

  3. Estimating exposure and dose to characterize health risks: the role of human tissue monitoring in exposure assessment.

    PubMed Central

    Sexton, K; Callahan, M A; Bryan, E F

    1995-01-01

    Exposure assessment is an integral part of health risk characterization. Exposure assessments typically address three critical aspects of exposure: the number of people exposed to the environmental toxicant, at specific concentrations, for the time period of interest; the resulting dose; and the relative contribution of important sources and pathways to exposure/dose. Because historically both "point-of-contact" measurements and information about dose and related pharmacokinetic processes have been lacking, exposure assessments have had to rely on construction of "scenarios" to estimate exposure and dose. This could change, however, as advances in development of biologic markers of exposure and dose make it possible to measure and interpret toxicant concentrations in accessible human tissues. The increasing availability of "biomarkers," coupled with improvements in pharmacokinetic understanding, present opportunities to estimate ("reconstruct") exposure from measurements of dose and knowledge of intake and uptake parameters. Human tissue monitoring, however, is not a substitute for more traditional methods of measuring exposure, but rather a complementary approach. A combination of exposure measurements and dose measurements provides the most credible scientific basis for exposure assessment. PMID:7635107

  4. Role of assessment components and recent adverse outcomes in risk estimation and prediction: Use of the Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability (START) in an adult secure inpatient mental health service.

    PubMed

    O'Shea, Laura E; Dickens, Geoffrey L

    2016-06-30

    The Short Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability is a structured judgement tool used to inform risk estimation for multiple adverse outcomes. In research, risk estimates outperform the tool's strength and vulnerability scales for violence prediction. Little is known about what its'component parts contribute to the assignment of risk estimates and how those estimates fare in prediction of non-violent adverse outcomes compared with the structured components. START assessment and outcomes data from a secure mental health service (N=84) was collected. Binomial and multinomial regression analyses determined the contribution of selected elements of the START structured domain and recent adverse risk events to risk estimates and outcomes prediction for violence, self-harm/suicidality, victimisation, and self-neglect. START vulnerabilities and lifetime history of violence, predicted the violence risk estimate; self-harm and victimisation estimates were predicted only by corresponding recent adverse events. Recent adverse events uniquely predicted all corresponding outcomes, with the exception of self-neglect which was predicted by the strength scale. Only for victimisation did the risk estimate outperform prediction based on the START components and recent adverse events. In the absence of recent corresponding risk behaviour, restrictions imposed on the basis of START-informed risk estimates could be unwarranted and may be unethical. PMID:27138837

  5. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-18

    Almost daily, Americans receive reports from the mass news media about some new and frightening risk to health and welfare. Most such reports emphasize the newsworthiness of the risks -- the possibility of a crisis, disagreements among experts, how things happened, who is responsible for fixing them, how much will it cost, conflict among parties involved, etc. As a rule, the magnitudes of the risks, or the difficulty of estimating those magnitudes, have limited newsworthiness, and so they are not mentioned. Because of this emphasis in the news media, most people outside the risk assessment community must judge the relative significance of the various risks to which we all are exposed with only that information deemed newsworthy by reporters. This information is biased and shows risks in isolation. There is no basis for understanding and comparing the relative importance of risks among themselves, or for comparing one risk, perhaps a new or newly-discovered one, in the field of all risks. The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which we are routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies.

  6. Estimates of associated outdoor particulate matter health risk and costs reductions from alternative building, ventilation and filtration scenarios.

    PubMed

    Sultan, Zuraimi M

    2007-05-01

    Although many studies have reported calculations of outdoor particulate matter (PM) associated externalities using ambient data, there is little information on the role buildings, their ventilation and filtration play. This study provides the framework to evaluate the health risk and cost reduction of building, ventilation and filtration strategies from outdoor PM pollution on a nationwide level and applied it to a case study in Singapore. Combining Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) and time weighted exposure models, with established concentration-response functions and monetary valuation methods, mortality and morbidity effects of outdoor PM on the population of Singapore under different building, ventilation and filtration strategies were estimated. Different interventions were made to compare the effects from the current building conditions. The findings demonstrate that building protection effect reduced approximately half the attributable health cases amounting to US$17.7 billion due to PM pollution when compared to levels computed using outdoor data alone. For residential buildings, nationwide adoption of natural ventilation from current state is associated with 28% higher cases of mortality and 13 to 38% higher cases for different morbidities, amounting to US$6.7 billion. The incurred cost is negligible compared to energy costs of air-conditioning. However, nationwide adoption of closed residence and air-conditioning are associated with outcomes including fewer mortality (10 and 6% respectively), fewer morbidities (8 and 4% respectively) and economic savings of US$1.5 and 0.9 billion respectively. The related savings were about a factor of 9 the energy cost for air-conditioning. Nationwide adoption of mechanical ventilation and filtration from current natural ventilation in schools is associated with fewer asthma hospital admissions and exacerbations; although the economic impact is not substantial. Enhanced workplace filtration reduces the mortality and morbidity

  7. Uranium mill tailings and risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Marks, S.

    1984-04-01

    Work done in estimating projected health effects for persons exposed to mill tailings at vicinity properties is described. The effect of the reassessment of exposures at Hiroshima and Nagasaki on the risk estimates for gamma radiation is discussed. A presentation of current results in the epidemiological study of Hanford workers is included. 2 references. (ACR)

  8. Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

    2006-01-01

    conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

  9. Estimating the effectiveness of health-risk communications with propensity-score matching: application to arsenic groundwater contamination in four US locations.

    PubMed

    Leidner, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research. PMID:25349622

  10. Estimating the Effectiveness of Health-Risk Communications with Propensity-Score Matching: Application to Arsenic Groundwater Contamination in Four US Locations

    PubMed Central

    Leidner, Andrew J.

    2014-01-01

    This paper provides a demonstration of propensity-score matching estimation methods to evaluate the effectiveness of health-risk communication efforts. This study develops a two-stage regression model to investigate household and respondent characteristics as they contribute to aversion behavior to reduce exposure to arsenic-contaminated groundwater. The aversion activity under study is a household-level point-of-use filtration device. Since the acquisition of arsenic contamination information and the engagement in an aversion activity may be codetermined, a two-stage propensity-score model is developed. In the first stage, the propensity for households to acquire arsenic contamination information is estimated. Then, the propensity scores are used to weight observations in a probit regression on the decision to avert the arsenic-related health risk. Of four potential sources of information, utility, media, friend, or others, information received from a friend appears to be the source of information most associated with aversion behavior. Other statistically significant covariates in the household's decision to avert contamination include reported household income, the presence of children in household, and region-level indicator variables. These findings are primarily illustrative and demonstrate the usefulness of propensity-score methods to estimate health-risk communication effectiveness. They may also be suggestive of areas for future research. PMID:25349622

  11. Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tenkate, Thomas D.

    1998-01-01

    Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

  12. Estimates of radiation dose and health risks to the United States population following the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident

    SciTech Connect

    Broadway, J.A.; Smith, J.M.; Norwood, D.L.; Porter, C.R.

    1988-09-01

    Estimates of both individual and collective doses received by the United States population following the Chernobyl accident have been made by using the data obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Ambient Monitoring System. Radionuclides associated with the debris first were measured in precipitation and surface air particulates at Portland, OR and Olympia, WA on 5 May 1986. Iodine-131 was the most consistently measured nuclide in all media, although several Cs and Ru isotopes also were observed. Strontium and any actinides notably were absent from the samples at the lower level of detection. The highest calculated individual-organ dose due to intake during May and June 1986 was 0.52 mSv to the infant thyroid in the state of Washington. This was predominantly (98%) from the ingestion of milk. The maximum U.S. collective dose equivalent to any organ was calculated to be 3,300 person-Sv to the thyroid. Risk estimates project three excess lung cancer deaths and an additional four deaths due to cancers of thyroid, breast and leukemia in the U.S. population over the next 45 y from exposure during the May-June 1986 interval. The only long-lived radionuclide measured in milk samples following the accident was 137Cs. We estimate 20 excess fatalities from the ingestion of 137Cs in milk during all subsequent years, with six of these due to lung cancer and the majority of the remainder distributed approximately equally among cancers of the thyroid, breast, liver and leukemia. A total of 100 excess fatalities from all dietary components was estimated. Because of the uncertainty of risk estimates from data such as those available for this study, all calculated values carry a range of uncertainty from a minimum of one-half the calculated value to a maximum of two times the calculated value.

  13. Health risks of energy systems.

    PubMed

    Krewitt, W; Hurley, F; Trukenmüller, A; Friedrich, R

    1998-08-01

    Health risks from fossil, renewable and nuclear reference energy systems are estimated following a detailed impact pathway approach. Using a set of appropriate air quality models and exposure-effect functions derived from the recent epidemiological literature, a methodological framework for risk assessment has been established and consistently applied across the different energy systems, including the analysis of consequences from a major nuclear accident. A wide range of health impacts resulting from increased air pollution and ionizing radiation is quantified, and the transferability of results derived from specific power plants to a more general context is discussed. PMID:9775447

  14. Estimating the accumulation of chemicals in an estuarine food web: A case study for evaluation of future ecological and human health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Iannuzzi, T.J.; Finley, B.L.

    1995-12-31

    A model was constructed and calibrated for estimating the accumulation of sediment associated nonionic organic chemicals, including selected PCBs and PCDD/Fs, in a simplified food web of the tidal Passaic River, New Jersey. The model was used to estimate concentrations of several chemicals in infaunal invertebrates, forage fish, blue crab, and adult finfish in the River as part of a screening-level risk assessment that was conducted during the preliminary phase of a CERCLA Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS). Subsequent tissue-residue data were collected to evaluate the performance of the model, and to calibrate the model for multiple chemicals of concern in the River. A follow-up program of data collection was designed to support a more detailed risk assessment. The objectives of calibrating the model are to supplement the extant tissue-residue data that is available for risk assessment, and to evaluate future scenarios of bioaccumulation (and potential ecological and human health risk) under various future conditions in the River. Results to-date suggest that the model performs well for the simplified food web that exists in the Passaic River. A case study was constructed to demonstrate the application of the model for future predictions of ecological risk. These preliminary results suggest that the model is sufficiently sensitive and accurate for estimating variations of bioaccumulation under varying degrees of source control or other future conditions.

  15. Pesticides and health risks.

    PubMed

    Gilden, Robyn C; Huffling, Katie; Sattler, Barbara

    2010-01-01

    Pesticides are a category of chemicals formulated to kill or repel a pest or halt its reproduction. In this article we review the toxicological and epidemiological literature; describe common potential pesticide exposures; and focus on the associated health risks to fetal development. Clinical implications are reviewed, and recommendations are made regarding the integration of this environmental health concern into nursing education, practice, research, and policy/advocacy work. Recommendations for pesticide elimination and reduction in health care settings are included. PMID:20409108

  16. Reinforcing flood-risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Reed, Duncan W

    2002-07-15

    Flood-frequency estimation is inherently uncertain. The practitioner applies a combination of gauged data, scientific method and hydrological judgement to derive a flood-frequency curve for a particular site. The resulting estimate can be thought fully satisfactory only if it is broadly consistent with all that is reliably known about the flood-frequency behaviour of the river. The paper takes as its main theme the search for information to strengthen a flood-risk estimate made from peak flows alone. Extra information comes in many forms, including documentary and monumental records of historical floods, and palaeological markers. Meteorological information is also useful, although rainfall rarity is difficult to assess objectively and can be a notoriously unreliable indicator of flood rarity. On highly permeable catchments, groundwater levels present additional data. Other types of information are relevant to judging hydrological similarity when the flood-frequency estimate derives from data pooled across several catchments. After highlighting information sources, the paper explores a second theme: that of consistency in flood-risk estimates. Following publication of the Flood estimation handbook, studies of flood risk are now using digital catchment data. Automated calculation methods allow estimates by standard methods to be mapped basin-wide, revealing anomalies at special sites such as river confluences. Such mapping presents collateral information of a new character. Can this be used to achieve flood-risk estimates that are coherent throughout a river basin? PMID:12804255

  17. Radiations in space: risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Fry, R J M

    2002-01-01

    The complexity of radiation environments in space makes estimation of risks more difficult than for the protection of terrestrial populations. In deep space the duration of the mission, position in the solar cycle, number and size of solar particle events (SPE) and the spacecraft shielding are the major determinants of risk. In low-earth orbit missions there are the added factors of altitude and orbital inclination. Different radiation qualities such as protons and heavy ions and secondary radiations inside the spacecraft such as neutrons of various energies, have to be considered. Radiation dose rates in space are low except for short periods during very large SPEs. Risk estimation for space activities is based on the human experience of exposure to gamma rays and to a lesser extent X rays. The doses of protons, heavy ions and neutrons are adjusted to take into account the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the different radiation types and thus derive equivalent doses. RBE values and factors to adjust for the effect of dose rate have to be obtained from experimental data. The influence of age and gender on the cancer risk is estimated from the data from atomic bomb survivors. Because of the large number of variables the uncertainities in the probability of the effects are large. Information needed to improve the risk estimates includes: (1) risk of cancer induction by protons, heavy ions and neutrons: (2) influence of dose rate and protraction, particularly on potential tissue effects such as reduced fertility and cataracts: and (3) possible effects of heavy ions on the central nervous system. Risk cannot be eliminated and thus there must be a consensus on what level of risk is acceptable. PMID:12382925

  18. Air pollution ranks as largest health risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wendel, JoAnna

    2014-04-01

    The World Health Organization (WHO) reports that 7 million people died in 2012 from air-pollution-related sicknesses, marking air pollution as the single largest environmental health risk. This finding, a result of better knowledge and assessment of the diseases, is more than double previous estimates of the risk of death from air pollution.

  19. Measurement and estimated health risks of volatile organic compounds and polychlorinated biphenyls in air at the Hanford Site

    SciTech Connect

    Patton, G.W.; Cooper, A.T.; Blanton, M.L.

    1994-10-01

    A variety of radioactive and nonradioactive chemicals have been released in effluent streams and discharged to waste disposal facilities during the nuclear materials production period at the Hanford Site. Extensive environmental surveillance for radioactive materials has occurred at Hanford; however, only limited information is available on the types and concentrations of organic pollutants potentially present. This report describes work performed to provide the Hanford Site Surface Environmental Surveillance Project with representative air concentration data for volatile organic compounds and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs). US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) volatile organic compound sampling methods evaluated for Hanford Site use were carbon-based adsorbent traps (TO-2) and Summa air canisters (TO-14). Polychlorinated biphenyls were sampled using USEPA method (TO-4), which uses glass fiber filters and polyurethane foam adsorbent beds to collect the PCBs. This report also presents results for environmental surveillance samples collected for volatile organic compound and PCB analyses from 1990 to 1993. All measured air concentrations of volatile organic compounds and PCBs were well below applicable maximum allowable concentration standards for air contaminants. Because of the lack of ambient air concentration standards, a conservative estimate is provided of the potential human health impacts from exposure to the ambient air concentrations measured on the Hanford Site.

  20. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  1. Secondary prevention and estimation of fracture risk.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Paul James; Chem, C

    2013-12-01

    The key questions addressed in this chapter are: • How can individual risk of fracture be best estimated? • What is the best system to prevent a further fracture? • How to implement systems for preventing further fractures? Absolute fracture risk calculators (FRCs) provide a means to estimate an individual's future fracture risk. FRCs are widely available and provide clinicians and patients a platform to discuss the need for intervention to prevent fragility fractures. Despite availability of effective osteoporosis medicines for almost two decades, most patients presenting with new fragility fractures do not receive secondary preventive care. The Fracture Liaison Service (FLS) model has been shown in a number of countries to eliminate the care gap in a clinically and cost-effective manner. Leading international and national organisations have developed comprehensive resources and/or national strategy documents to provide guidance on implementation of FLS in local, regional and national health-care systems. PMID:24836336

  2. ITER- International Toxicity Estimates for Risk, new TOXNET database.

    PubMed

    Tomasulo, Patricia

    2005-01-01

    ITER, the International Toxicity Estimates for Risk database, joined the TOXNET system in the winter of 2004. ITER features international comparisons of environmental health risk assessment information and contains over 620 chemical records. ITER includes data from the EPA, Health Canada, the National Institute of Public Health and the Environment of the Netherlands, and other organizations that provide risk values that have been peer-reviewed. PMID:15760833

  3. Health effects of risk-assessment categories

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, C.F.; Rybicka, K.; Knutson, A.; Morris, S.C.

    1983-10-01

    Environmental and occupational health effects associated with exposures to various chemicals are a subject of increasing concern. One recently developed methodology for assessing the health impacts of various chemical compounds involves the classification of similar chemicals into risk-assessment categories (RACs). This report reviews documented human health effects for a broad range of pollutants, classified by RACs. It complements other studies that have estimated human health effects by RAC based on analysis and extrapolation of data from animal research.

  4. Estimated inventory of radionuclides in Former Soviet Union Naval Reactors dumped in the Kara Sea and their associated health risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mount, M.E.; Layton, D.W.; Schwertz, N.L.; Anspaugh, L.R.; Robison, W.L.

    1993-05-01

    Radionuclide inventories have bin estimated for the reactor cores, reactor components, and primary system corrosion products in the former Soviet Union naval reactors dumped at the Abrosimov Inlet, Tsivolka Inlet, Stepovoy Inlet, Techeniye Inlet, and Novaya Zemlya Depression sites in the Kara Sea between 1965 and 1988. For the time of disposal, the inventories are estimated at 17 to 66 kCi of actinides plus daughters and 1695 to 4782 kCi of fission products in the reactor cores, 917 to 1127 kCi of activation products in the reactor components, and 1.4 to 1.6 kCi of activation products in the primary system corrosion products. At the present time, the inventories are estimated to have decreased to 6 to 24 kCi of actinides plus daughters and 492 to 540 kCi of fission products in the reactor cores, 124 to 126 kCi of activation products in the reactor components, and 0.16 to 0.17 kCi of activation products in the primary system corrosion products. All actinide activities are estimated to be within a factor of two.

  5. Improving Infant Exposure and Health Risk Estimates: Using Serum Data to Predict Polybrominated Diphenyl Ether Concentrations in Breast Milk

    EPA Science Inventory

    Women in the United States have breast milk concentrations of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) that are among the highest in the world, leading to concerns over the potential health implications to breastfeeding infants during critical stages of growth and development. Deve...

  6. Plastics and health risks.

    PubMed

    Halden, Rolf U

    2010-01-01

    By 2010, the worldwide annual production of plastics will surpass 300 million tons. Plastics are indispensable materials in modern society, and many products manufactured from plastics are a boon to public health (e.g., disposable syringes, intravenous bags). However, plastics also pose health risks. Of principal concern are endocrine-disrupting properties, as triggered for example by bisphenol A and di-(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate (DEHP). Opinions on the safety of plastics vary widely, and despite more than five decades of research, scientific consensus on product safety is still elusive. This literature review summarizes information from more than 120 peer-reviewed publications on health effects of plastics and plasticizers in lab animals and humans. It examines problematic exposures of susceptible populations and also briefly summarizes adverse environmental impacts from plastic pollution. Ongoing efforts to steer human society toward resource conservation and sustainable consumption are discussed, including the concept of the 5 Rs--i.e., reduce, reuse, recycle, rethink, restrain--for minimizing pre- and postnatal exposures to potentially harmful components of plastics. PMID:20070188

  7. Estimated Dietary Intake of Radionuclides and Health Risks for the Citizens of Fukushima City, Tokyo, and Osaka after the 2011 Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2014-01-01

    The radionuclides released from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 pose a health risk. In this study, we estimated the 1st-year average doses resulting from the intake of iodine 131 (131I) and cesium 134 and 137 (134Cs and 137Cs) in drinking water and food ingested by citizens of Fukushima City (∼50 km from the nuclear power plant; outside the evacuation zone), Tokyo (∼230 km), and Osaka (∼580 km) after the accident. For citizens in Fukushima City, we considered two scenarios: Case 1, citizens consumed vegetables bought from markets; Case 2, citizens consumed vegetables grown locally (conservative scenario). The estimated effective doses of 134Cs and 137Cs agreed well with those estimated through market basket and food-duplicate surveys. The average thyroid equivalent doses due to ingestion of 131I for adults were 840 µSv (Case 1) and 2700 µSv (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 370 µSv in Tokyo, and 16 µSv in Osaka. The average effective doses due to 134Cs and 137Cs were 19, 120, 6.1, and 1.9 µSv, respectively. The doses estimated in this study were much lower than values reported by the World Health Organization and the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, whose assessments lacked validation and full consideration of regional trade in foods, highlighting the importance of including regional trade. The 95th percentile effective doses were 2–3 times the average values. Lifetime attributable risks (LARs) of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 2.3–39×10−6 (Case 1) and 10–98×10−6 (Case 2) in Fukushima City, 0.95–14×10−6 in Tokyo, and 0.11–1.3×10−6 in Osaka. The contributions of LARs of thyroid cancers due to ingestion were 7.5%–12% of all exposure (Case 1) and 12%–30% (Case 2) in Fukushima City. PMID:25390339

  8. Health and environmental risks of energy systems

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.

    1984-01-01

    This paper gives four examples of health risk assessments of energy systems: (1) Comparative risk assessment of the health effects of the coal and nuclear fuel cycles. Estimates differ from previous values chiefly by inclusion of ranges of uncertainty, but some coal-cycle numbers were re-estimated. Upper-boundary public disease risks of air pollution from coal-fired plants dominate. Reactors probably account for most of the potential effect of major nuclear accidents. Accidental death rates in electricity generation are low for reactors and higher for coal. (2) Upper boundary air pollution health risks of existing fossil-based energy technologies in the United States. Preliminary mortality estimates were obtained combining potential impacts of three index pollutants - SO/sub 4/, NO/sub 2/, and CO - as independent measures of risk. Four fuel cycle trajectories leading to three end-uses were analyzed. Example results: domestic wood burning has substantial potential impact, with an upper boundary exceeding that of coal; upper-boundary air pollution impacts of gas can exceed those of oil, because of NO/sub 2/. (3) Health risks of acid deposition and other transported air pollutants, carried out as part of an assessment of the US Congress Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) Acid Rain and Transported Air Pollutants - Implications for Public Policy. Three scenarios were examined, leading to estimates of 40,000 to 50,000 annual premature deaths, depending on year (1978 vs 2000) and scenario (holding total emissions constant vs 30% reduction). (4) health effects of uranium mill tailings piles. Mortality risk is estimated to be minuscule (8.7 x 10/sup -9/ average individual lifetime cancer risk from a model mill, compared with 9.5 x 10/sup -4/ for background radiation). Methods that sum risks over the indefinite future are shown to be to be unrealistic. 39 references, 7 figures, 15 tables.

  9. Estimation of exposure to dietary acrylamide based on mercapturic acids level in urine of Polish women post partum and an assessment of health risk.

    PubMed

    Mojska, Hanna; Gielecińska, Iwona; Zielińska, Aleksandra; Winiarek, Joanna; Sawicki, Włodzimierz

    2016-05-01

    We determined metabolites of acrylamide and glycidamide concentrations (AAMA and GAMA, respectively) in urine of 93 women within the first days after delivery, using LC-MS/MS. The median AAMA and GAMA levels in urine were 20.9 μg/l (2.3÷399.0 μg/l) and 8.6 μg/l (1.3÷85.0 μg/l), respectively. In smokers we found significantly (P<0.01) higher levels of metabolites in comparison with the non-smoking women. As demonstrated by the 24-h dietary recall, acrylamide intake was low (median: 7.04 μg/day). Estimated exposure to acrylamide based on AAMA and GAMA levels in the whole group of women was 0.16 μg/kg b.w./day (1.15 μg/kg b.w./day, P95). We found significantly (P<0.05) higher exposure in women who consumed higher amount of acrylamide in the diet (≥10 μg/day vs <10 μg/day). A weak but significant positive correlation between acrylamide intake calculated on the basis of urinary levels of AAMA and GAMA and estimated on the basis of 24-h dietary recall (r=0.26, P<0.05) was found. The estimated margin of exposure values were below 10 000 and ranged from 156 for 95th percentile to 1938 for median acrylamide intake. Our results have shown that even a low dietary acrylamide intake may be associated with health risk. PMID:25827310

  10. Estimation of health risks and safety margins due to inhalation of ultrafine particles and nanoparticles in selected occupational, consumer and environmental settings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hänninen, Otto; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Loh, Miranda; Stoeger, Tobias; Kreyling, Wolfgang; Schmid, Otmar; Peters, Annette

    2009-05-01

    Nanoparticles exhibit properties different from those of the same bulk materials leading to unknown toxicological implications that have evoked concern for (1) occupational, (2) consumer and (3) environmental safety. The current work utilizes epidemiological and toxicological data for screening level assessment of these risks using various suggested health relevant dose metrics (mass, particle number and surface area) to (i) quantify the potential risk levels and to (ii) compare the properties of these alternative risk assessment methods.

  11. Auditory risk estimates for youth target shooting

    PubMed Central

    Meinke, Deanna K.; Murphy, William J.; Finan, Donald S.; Lankford, James E.; Flamme, Gregory A.; Stewart, Michael; Soendergaard, Jacob; Jerome, Trevor W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To characterize the impulse noise exposure and auditory risk for youth recreational firearm users engaged in outdoor target shooting events. The youth shooting positions are typically standing or sitting at a table, which places the firearm closer to the ground or reflective surface when compared to adult shooters. Design Acoustic characteristics were examined and the auditory risk estimates were evaluated using contemporary damage-risk criteria for unprotected adult listeners and the 120-dB peak limit suggested by the World Health Organization (1999) for children. Study sample Impulses were generated by 26 firearm/ammunition configurations representing rifles, shotguns, and pistols used by youth. Measurements were obtained relative to a youth shooter’s left ear. Results All firearms generated peak levels that exceeded the 120 dB peak limit suggested by the WHO for children. In general, shooting from the seated position over a tabletop increases the peak levels, LAeq8 and reduces the unprotected maximum permissible exposures (MPEs) for both rifles and pistols. Pistols pose the greatest auditory risk when fired over a tabletop. Conclusion Youth should utilize smaller caliber weapons, preferably from the standing position, and always wear hearing protection whenever engaging in shooting activities to reduce the risk for auditory damage. PMID:24564688

  12. Health Risks of Nuclear Power.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Bernard L.

    1978-01-01

    Deals with the wastes generated in nuclear power plants and the health risks involved as compared to those of wastes generated by coal-fired plants. Concludes that the risks of nuclear power plants are many times smaller than the risks from alternative energy resources. (GA)

  13. Human health risks from metals and metalloid via consumption of food animals near gold mines in Tarkwa, Ghana: estimation of the daily intakes and target hazard quotients (THQs).

    PubMed

    Bortey-Sam, Nesta; Nakayama, Shouta M M; Ikenaka, Yoshinori; Akoto, Osei; Baidoo, Elvis; Yohannes, Yared Beyene; Mizukawa, Hazuki; Ishizuka, Mayumi

    2015-01-01

    Heavy metal and metalloid contamination in food resulting from mining is of major concern due to the potential risk involved. Food consumption is the most likely route of human exposure to metals. This study was therefore to assess metals in different organs and different animal species near gold mines used for human consumption (free-range chicken, goat and sheep) in Tarkwa, Ghana, and to estimate the daily intake and health risk. The concentrations of Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd, and Pb were measured with an inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometer and Hg analysis was done using the mercury analyzer. Principal component analysis of the results showed a clear separation between chicken, grouped on one side, and the ruminants clustered on another side in both offal and muscle. Interestingly, As, Cd, Hg, Mn and Pb made one cluster in the offal of chicken. Chicken muscle also showed similar distribution with As, Hg and Pb clustered together. The daily intake of metals (μg/kg body weight/day) were in the following ranges; As [0.002 (kidneys of goat and sheep)-0.19 (chicken gizzard)], Cd [0.003 (chicken muscle)-0.55 (chicken liver)], Hg [0.002 (goat muscle)-0.29 (chicken liver)], Pb [0.01 (muscles and kidneys of goat and sheep)-0.96 (chicken gizzard)] and Mn [0.13 (goat kidney)-8.92 (sheep liver)]. From the results, daily intakes of As, Cd, Hg, Pb and Mn in these food animals were low compared to the provisional tolerable daily intake guidelines. The THQs although less than one, indicated that contributions of chicken gizzard and liver to toxic metal exposure in adults and especially children could be significant. PMID:25450929

  14. Children at health risks.

    PubMed

    Sekar, H R

    1992-01-01

    In India, 69% of the children of the working class die, most of whom are child laborers. Economic pressure forces parents to make their children work. Employers want child workers because they can manipulate them and pay them low wages, thereby ensuring their viability. The caste system induces social inequality, inheritance invokes cultural inequality, and patriarchal socialization is responsible for gender inequality, all of which perpetuates exploitation of children by employers. In Sivakasi, an estimated 125,000 children make up the child labor force, comprising 30% of the entire labor force. 75% are from the lowest castes. 90% of child workers are girls because they are more obedient and accept even lower wages than boys, and girls need to save for their dowry. Girls often suffer verbal and physical abuse. Like their parents who were also child workers, child workers are illiterate and work long hours. A small rich elite in Sivakasi controls most of the trading and industrial capital, educational institutions, and voluntary organizations. Employers' agents give parents a loan and use their children's labor as security. Each day, they bring child workers to Sivakasi in factory buses from villages to work at least 12 hour days. They work under hazardous conditions, e.g., working with toxic chemicals. Coughing, sore throat, dizziness, methemoglobinemia, and anemia are common effects of ingestion or inhalation of chlorate dust. Inhalation of sulphur dust causes respiratory infections, eye infections, and chronic lung diseases (e.g., asthma). Fires and explosions are common risks for working children. Factory management seldom undertake fire prevention measures. An extensive survey of the problem of child labor is needed in Sivakasi before systematic planning to protect children could be done. Overall development, especially agricultural development, is needed. Parents, employers, enforcement authorities, trade unions, and social groups need to be sensitized to the

  15. Health Risk of Radon

    MedlinePlus

    ... menu Learn the Issues Air Chemicals and Toxics Climate Change Emergencies Greener Living Health and Safety Land and Cleanup Pesticides Waste Water Science & Technology Air Climate Change Ecosystems Health Land, Waste and Cleanup Pesticides Substances ...

  16. Health Security and Risk Aversion.

    PubMed

    Herington, Jonathan

    2016-09-01

    Health security has become a popular way of justifying efforts to control catastrophic threats to public health. Unfortunately, there has been little analysis of the concept of health security, nor the relationship between health security and other potential aims of public health policy. In this paper I develop an account of health security as an aversion to risky policy options. I explore three reasons for thinking risk avoidance is a distinctly worthwhile aim of public health policy: (i) that security is intrinsically valuable, (ii) that it is necessary for social planning and (iii) that it is an appropriate response to decision-making in contexts of very limited information. Striking the right balance between securing and maximizing population health thus requires a substantive, and hitherto unrecognized, value judgment. Finally, I critically evaluate the current health security agenda in light of this new account of the concept and its relationship to the other aims of public health policy. PMID:26990349

  17. Real Time Radiation Exposure And Health Risks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hu, Shaowen; Barzilla, Janet E.; Semones, Edward J.

    2015-01-01

    Radiation from solar particle events (SPEs) poses a serious threat to future manned missions outside of low Earth orbit (LEO). Accurate characterization of the radiation environment in the inner heliosphere and timely monitoring the health risks to crew are essential steps to ensure the safety of future Mars missions. In this project we plan to develop an approach that can use the particle data from multiple satellites and perform near real-time simulations of radiation exposure and health risks for various exposure scenarios. Time-course profiles of dose rates will be calculated with HZETRN and PDOSE from the energy spectrum and compositions of the particles archived from satellites, and will be validated from recent radiation exposure measurements in space. Real-time estimation of radiation risks will be investigated using ARRBOD. This cross discipline integrated approach can improve risk mitigation by providing critical information for risk assessment and medical guidance to crew during SPEs.

  18. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, Janet M.; Springer, David L.

    1999-12-31

    Carbon tetrachloride has been used extensively within the DOE nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume consumer of CCl4 in the United States using 5000 gallons in 1977 alone (Ripple, 1992). At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl4 were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl4 in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford facility have exceeded 8 the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude (Illman, 1993). High levels of CCl4 at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl4 cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates, which assume that CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies was to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl4. Specific research objectives of this project were to: (1) compare the rates of CCl4 metabolism by rats, mice and hamsters in vivo and extrapolate those rates to man based on parallel studies on the metabolism of CCl4 by rat, mouse, hamster and human hepatic microsomes in vitro; (2) using hepatic microsome preparations, determine the role of specific cytochrome P450 isoforms in CCl4-mediated toxicity and the effects of repeated inhalation and ingestion of CCl4 on these isoforms; and (3) evaluate the toxicokinetics of inhaled CCl4 in rats, mice and hamsters. This information has been used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). Another major objective of the project was to provide scientific evidence that CCl4, like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing and regenerative proliferation. In

  19. Health risks of obesity

    MedlinePlus

    ... that increases your chance of getting a disease.) Body Mass Index Body mass index (BMI) is calculated using height and weight. It is used to estimate body fat. Starting at 25.0, the higher your ...

  20. Estimated soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    LaGoy, P.K.

    1987-09-01

    Assessing the risks to human health posed by contaminants present in soil requires an estimate of likely soil ingestion rates. In the past, direct measurements of soil ingestion were not available and risk assessors were forced to estimate soil ingestion rates based on observations of mouthing behavior and measurements of soil on hands. Recently, empirical data on soil ingestion rates have become available from two sources. Although preliminary, these data can be used to derive better estimates of soil ingestion rates for use in risk assessments. Estimates of average soil ingestion rates derived in this paper range from 25 to 100 mg/day, depending on the age of the individual at risk. Maximum soil ingestion rates that are unlikely to underestimate exposure range from 100 to 500 mg. A value of 5000 mg/day is considered a reasonable estimate of a maximum single-day exposure for a child with habitual pica. 12 references.

  1. Exposure Estimation and Interpretation of Occupational Risk: Enhanced Information for the Occupational Risk Manager

    PubMed Central

    Waters, Martha; McKernan, Lauralynn; Maier, Andrew; Jayjock, Michael; Schaeffer, Val; Brosseau, Lisa

    2015-01-01

    The fundamental goal of this article is to describe, define, and analyze the components of the risk characterization process for occupational exposures. Current methods are described for the probabilistic characterization of exposure, including newer techniques that have increasing applications for assessing data from occupational exposure scenarios. In addition, since the probability of health effects reflects variability in the exposure estimate as well as the dose-response curve—the integrated considerations of variability surrounding both components of the risk characterization provide greater information to the occupational hygienist. Probabilistic tools provide a more informed view of exposure as compared to use of discrete point estimates for these inputs to the risk characterization process. Active use of such tools for exposure and risk assessment will lead to a scientifically supported worker health protection program. Understanding the bases for an occupational risk assessment, focusing on important sources of variability and uncertainty enables characterizing occupational risk in terms of a probability, rather than a binary decision of acceptable risk or unacceptable risk. A critical review of existing methods highlights several conclusions: (1) exposure estimates and the dose-response are impacted by both variability and uncertainty and a well-developed risk characterization reflects and communicates this consideration; (2) occupational risk is probabilistic in nature and most accurately considered as a distribution, not a point estimate; and (3) occupational hygienists have a variety of tools available to incorporate concepts of risk characterization into occupational health and practice. PMID:26302336

  2. Health risks in perspective: Judging health risks of energy technologies. Revision 5/94

    SciTech Connect

    Rowe, M.D.

    1992-09-01

    The purpose of this report is to provide perspective on the various risks to which man is routinely exposed. It serves as a basis for understanding the meaning of quantitative risk estimates and for comparing new or newly-discovered risks with other, better-understood risks. Specific emphasis is placed on health risks of energy technologies. This report is not a risk assessment; nor does it contain instructions on how to do a risk assessment. Rather, it provides background information on how most of us think about risks and why it is difficult to do it rationally, it provides a philosophy and data with which to do a better job of judging risks more rationally, and it provides an overview of where risks of energy technologies fit within the spectrum of all risks. Much of the quantitative information provided here is on relative risk of dying of various causes. This is not because risk of dying is seen as the most important kind of risk, but because the statistics on mortality rates by cause are the highest quality data available on health risks in the general population.

  3. Estimating the spatial distribution of acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) and associated risk factors using emergency call data in India. A symptom-based approach for public health surveillance.

    PubMed

    Kauhl, Boris; Pilot, Eva; Rao, Ramana; Gruebner, Oliver; Schweikart, Jürgen; Krafft, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    The System for Early-warning based on Emergency Data (SEED) is a pilot project to evaluate the use of emergency call data with the main complaint acute undifferentiated fever (AUF) for syndromic surveillance in India. While spatio-temporal methods provide signals to detect potential disease outbreaks, additional information about socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk is necessary for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. The goal of this study is to investigate whether a spatial epidemiological analysis at the ecological level provides information on urban-rural inequalities, socio-ecological exposure factors and the main population at risk for AUF. Our results displayed higher risks in rural areas with strong local variation. Household industries and proximity to forests were the main socio-ecological exposure factors and scheduled tribes were the main population at risk for AUF. These results provide additional information for syndromic surveillance and could be used for evidence-based public health interventions and future preparedness strategies. PMID:25463924

  4. Prevention through health risk management.

    PubMed

    Friedman, G M

    1992-08-01

    Risk can lead to catastrophe. Risk-management systems are highly effective in preventing the catastrophes of fire, earthquakes, and work-site injuries. No such effective systems are present to prevent health and social problems. A practical, cost-effective system to manage risk in children is being developed by the nonprofit Arizona Health Evaluation and Longevity Planning (HELP) Foundation. Information regarding such risk is collected in the school setting. This voluntary information comes from the administration, the school nurse, physical fitness testing, blood testing by the local hospital, self-esteem instruments, and parent, teacher, and child questionnaires. The HELP Foundation then develops an individual child and class risk profile that is presented to the teacher, school nurse, principal, and parent. Those involved with each child then prioritize, plan, and implement programs and activities to manage the identified risk(s). Risks is tracked throughout the child's school career by periodic reassessment. Evaluation of change in problem outcome will be a natural extension of the process. PMID:1643740

  5. Dynamic cost risk estimation and budget misspecification

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ebbeler, D. H.; Fox, G.; Habib-Agahi, H.

    2003-01-01

    Cost risk for new technology development is estimated by explicit stochastic processes. Monte Carlo simulation is used to propagate technology development activity budget changes during the technology development cycle.

  6. Biological risk and occupational health.

    PubMed

    Corrao, Carmela Romana Natalina; Mazzotta, Adele; La Torre, Giuseppe; De Giusti, Maria

    2012-01-01

    Many work activities include hazards to workers, and among these biological risk is particularly important, mostly because of different types of exposure, contact with highly dangerous agents, lack of limit values able to compare all exposures, presence of workers with defective immune systems and therefore more susceptible to the risk. Bioaerosols and dust are considered important vehicles of microganisms at workplaces and interaction with other occupational agents is assumed. Moreover, biological risk can be significant in countries with increasing economic development or particular habits and some biological agents are also classified as carcinogenic to human. Specific emerging biological risks have been recently pointed out by Risk Observatory of the European Agency for Safety and Health at work, and we must consider the worker's attitude and behaviour, influenced by his own perception of risk more than his real knowledge, that could over-underestimate the risk itself. Therefore, biological risk at work requires a complex approach in relation to risk assessment and risk management, made more difficult due to the wide variety of biological agents, working environments and working techniques that can determine the exposures. PMID:22785422

  7. The Problem With Estimating Public Health Spending.

    PubMed

    Leider, Jonathon P

    2016-01-01

    Accurate information on how much the United States spends on public health is critical. These estimates affect planning efforts; reflect the value society places on the public health enterprise; and allows for the demonstration of cost-effectiveness of programs, policies, and services aimed at increasing population health. Yet, at present, there are a limited number of sources of systematic public health finance data. Each of these sources is collected in different ways, for different reasons, and so yields strikingly different results. This article aims to compare and contrast all 4 current national public health finance data sets, including data compiled by Trust for America's Health, the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials (ASTHO), the National Association of County and City Health Officials (NACCHO), and the Census, which underlie the oft-cited National Health Expenditure Account estimates of public health activity. In FY2008, ASTHO estimates that state health agencies spent $24 billion ($94 per capita on average, median $79), while the Census estimated all state governmental agencies including state health agencies spent $60 billion on public health ($200 per capita on average, median $166). Census public health data suggest that local governments spent an average of $87 per capita (median $57), whereas NACCHO estimates that reporting LHDs spent $64 per capita on average (median $36) in FY2008. We conclude that these estimates differ because the various organizations collect data using different means, data definitions, and inclusion/exclusion criteria--most notably around whether to include spending by all agencies versus a state/local health department, and whether behavioral health, disability, and some clinical care spending are included in estimates. Alongside deeper analysis of presently underutilized Census administrative data, we see harmonization efforts and the creation of a standardized expenditure reporting system as a way to

  8. Geosciences help to protect human health: estimation of the adsorbed radiation doses while flight journeys, as important step to radiation risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chernov, Anatolii; Shabatura, Olexandr

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of the adsorbed radiation dose while flight journeys is a complex problem, which should be solved to get correct evaluation of equivalent effective doses and radiation risk assessment. Direct measurements of the adsorbed dose in the aircrafts during regional flights (3-10 hours) has shown that the radiation in the plane may increase 10-15 times (to 2-4 mSv/h) compared to the values on the surface of the Earth (0.2-0.5 mSv/h). Results of instrumental research confirmed by the other investigations. It is a fact that adsorbed doses per year while flight journeys are less than doses from medical tests. However, while flight journeys passengers get the same doses as nuclear power plant staff, people in zones of natural radiation anomalies and so should be evaluated. According to the authors' research, flight journeys are safe enough, when solar activity is normal and if we fly under altitude of 18 km (as usual, while intercontinental flights). Most of people travel by plane not so often, but if flight is lasting in dangerous periods of solar activity (powerful solar winds and magnetic field storms), passengers and flight crew can adsorb great amount of radiation doses. People, who spend more than 500 hours in flight journeys (pilots, business oriented persons', government representatives, etc.) get amount of radiation, which can negatively influence on health and provoke diseases, such as cancer. Authors consider that problem actual and researches are still going on. It is revealed, that radiation can be calculated, using special equations. Great part of radiation depends on very variable outer-space component and less variable solar. Accurate calculations of doses will be possible, when we will take into account all features of radiation distribution (time, season of year and exact time of the day, duration of flight), technical features of aircraft and logistics of flight (altitude, latitude). Results of first attempts of radiation doses modelling confirmed

  9. 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) in the environment: human health risk estimation and its application to the Seveso case as an example

    SciTech Connect

    di Domenico, A.; Zapponi, G.A.

    1986-09-01

    Findings from selected dose-response experimental studies on 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD) carcinogenic action in rodents were utilized for low-dose lifetime cancer risk estimation in man. The Weibull, Armitage-Doll, and linearized Armitage-Doll mathematical models were employed in this work. Conversion factors, based on body surface, of 1/5 and 1/11 were also employed for rat- and mouse-to-man extrapolation. Conservative estimates from the linearized Armitage-Doll upper 99% confidence limit associate a 10(-5) risk probability level to TCDD daily doses of 0.15-2.4 pg/kg body wt., while levels of 10(-6) and 10(-7) are associated with uptakes 10- and 100-fold lower, respectively. Based on environmental microanalytical records, exposure to TCDD of Seveso (Milan, Italy) Zone B and R inhabitants was calculated from 0.5 year after the accident onward. Exposure through food produced locally was assumed to be zero. The lifetime cancer risk for the considered cohort at the highest exposure does not appear to exceed 10(-5).

  10. Oil shale health and environmental risk analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gratt, L.B.

    1983-04-01

    The potential human health and environmental risks of hypothetical one-million-barrels-per-day oil shale industry have been analyzed to serve as an aid in the formulation and management of a program of environmental research. The largest uncertainties for expected fatalities are in the public sector from air pollutants although the occupational sector is estimated to have 60% more expected fatalities than the public sector. Occupational safety and illness have been analyzed for the oil shale fuel cycle from extraction to delivery of products for end use. Pneumoconiosis from the dust environment is the worker disease resulting in the greatest number of fatalities, followed by chronic bronchitis, internal cancer, and skin cancers, respectively. Research recommendations are presented for reducing the uncertainties in the risks analyzed and to fill data gaps to estimate other risks.

  11. Submarine tower escape decompression sickness risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Loveman, G A M; Seddon, E M; Thacker, J C; Stansfield, M R; Jurd, K M

    2014-01-01

    Actions to enhance survival in a distressed submarine (DISSUB) scenario may be guided in part by knowledge of the likely risk of decompression sickness (DCS) should the crew attempt tower escape. A mathematical model for DCS risk estimation has been calibrated against DCS outcome data from 3,738 exposures of either men or goats to raised pressure. Body mass was used to scale DCS risk. The calibration data included more than 1,000 actual or simulated submarine escape exposures and no exposures with substantial staged decompression. Cases of pulmonary barotrauma were removed from the calibration data. The calibrated model was used to estimate the likelihood of DCS occurrence following submarine escape from the United Kingdom Royal Navy tower escape system. Where internal DISSUB pressure remains at - 0.1 MPa, escape from DISSUB depths < 200 meters is estimated to have DCS risk < 6%. Saturation at raised DISSUB pressure markedly increases risk, with > 60% DCS risk predicted for a 200-meter escape from saturation at 0.21 MPa. Using the calibrated model to predict DCS for direct ascent from saturation gives similar risk estimates to other published models. PMID:25109085

  12. Environment, Safety, and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP)

    SciTech Connect

    Eide, Steven Arvid; Thomas Wierman

    2003-12-01

    The Environment, Safety and Health Risk Assessment Program (ESHRAP) models human safety and health risk resulting from waste management and environmental restoration activities. Human safety and health risks include those associated with storing, handling, processing, transporting, and disposing of radionuclides and chemicals. Exposures to these materials, resulting from both accidents and normal, incident-free operation, are modeled. In addition, standard industrial risks (falls, explosions, transportation accidents, etc.) are evaluated. Finally, human safety and health impacts from cleanup of accidental releases of radionuclides and chemicals to the environment are estimated. Unlike environmental impact statements and safety analysis reports, ESHRAP risk predictions are meant to be best estimate, rather than bounding or conservatively high. Typically, ESHRAP studies involve risk predictions covering the entire waste management or environmental restoration program, including such activities as initial storage, handling, processing, interim storage, transportation, and final disposal. ESHRAP can be used to support complex environmental decision-making processes and to track risk reduction as activities progress.

  13. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data.

    PubMed

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Pfeiffer, Ruth M

    2014-04-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  14. Risk Analysis for Environmental Health Triage

    SciTech Connect

    Bogen, K T

    2005-11-18

    The Homeland Security Act mandates development of a national, risk-based system to support planning for, response to and recovery from emergency situations involving large-scale toxic exposures. To prepare for and manage consequences effectively, planners and responders need not only to identify zones of potentially elevated individual risk, but also to predict expected casualties. Emergency response support systems now define ''consequences'' by mapping areas in which toxic chemical concentrations do or may exceed Acute Exposure Guideline Levels (AEGLs) or similar guidelines. However, because AEGLs do not estimate expected risks, current unqualified claims that such maps support consequence management are misleading. Intentionally protective, AEGLs incorporate various safety/uncertainty factors depending on scope and quality of chemical-specific toxicity data. Some of these factors are irrelevant, and others need to be modified, whenever resource constraints or exposure-scenario complexities require responders to make critical trade-off (triage) decisions in order to minimize expected casualties. AEGL-exceedance zones cannot consistently be aggregated, compared, or used to calculate expected casualties, and so may seriously misguide emergency response triage decisions. Methods and tools well established and readily available to support environmental health protection are not yet developed for chemically related environmental health triage. Effective triage decisions involving chemical risks require a new assessment approach that focuses on best estimates of likely casualties, rather than on upper plausible bounds of individual risk. If risk-based consequence management is to become a reality, federal agencies tasked with supporting emergency response must actively coordinate to foster new methods that can support effective environmental health triage.

  15. [Estimation of risk areas for hepatitis A].

    PubMed

    Braga, Ricardo Cerqueira Campos; Valencia, Luís Iván Ortiz; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade; Escosteguy, Claudia Caminha

    2008-08-01

    This study estimated hepatitis A risk areas in a region of Duque de Caxias, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. A cross-sectional study consisting of a hepatitis A serological survey and a household survey were conducted in 19 census tracts. Of these, 11 tracts were selected and 1,298 children from one to ten years of age were included in the study. Geostatistical techniques allowed modeling the spatial continuity of hepatitis A, non-use of filtered drinking water, time since installation of running water, and number of water taps per household and their spatial estimation through ordinary and indicator kriging. Adjusted models for the outcome and socioeconomic variables were isotropic; risk maps were constructed; cross-validation of the four models was satisfactory. Spatial estimation using the kriging method detected areas with increased risk of hepatitis A, independently of the urban administrative area in which the census tracts were located. PMID:18709215

  16. Estimating health expenditure shares from household surveys

    PubMed Central

    Brooks, Benjamin PC; Hanlon, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Abstract Objective To quantify the effects of household expenditure survey characteristics on the estimated share of a household’s expenditure devoted to health. Methods A search was conducted for all country surveys reporting data on health expenditure and total household expenditure. Data on total expenditure and health expenditure were extracted from the surveys to generate the health expenditure share (i.e. fraction of the household expenditure devoted to health). To do this the authors relied on survey microdata or survey reports to calculate the health expenditure share for the particular instrument involved. Health expenditure share was modelled as a function of the survey’s recall period, the number of health expenditure items, the number of total expenditure items, the data collection method and the placement of the health module within the survey. Data exists across space and time, so fixed effects for territory and year were included as well. The model was estimated by means of ordinary least squares regression with clustered standard errors. Findings A one-unit increase in the number of health expenditure questions was accompanied by a 1% increase in the estimated health expenditure share. A one-unit increase in the number of non-health expenditure questions resulted in a 0.2% decrease in the estimated share. Increasing the recall period by one month was accompanied by a 6% decrease in the health expenditure share. Conclusion The characteristics of a survey instrument examined in the study affect the estimate of the health expenditure share. Those characteristics need to be accounted for when comparing results across surveys within a territory and, ultimately, across territories. PMID:23825879

  17. Preoperative Evaluation: Estimation of Pulmonary Risk.

    PubMed

    Lakshminarasimhachar, Anand; Smetana, Gerald W

    2016-03-01

    Postoperative pulmonary complications (PPCs) are common after major non-thoracic surgery and associated with significant morbidity and high cost of care. A number of risk factors are strong predictors of PPCs. The overall goal of the preoperative pulmonary evaluation is to identify these potential, patient and procedure-related risks and optimize the health of the patients before surgery. A thorough clinical examination supported by appropriate laboratory tests will help guide the clinician to provide optimal perioperative care. PMID:26927740

  18. Health risks of alcohol use

    MedlinePlus

    Alcoholism - risks; Alcohol abuse - risks; Alcohol dependence - risks; Risky drinking - risks ... sleep problems or make them worse Increase the risk of suicide Families are often affected when someone ...

  19. Potential human health risks from toxic metals, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and organochlorine pesticides via canned fish consumption: estimation of target hazard quotients.

    PubMed

    El Morsy, Fadia A M; El-Sadaawy, Manal M; Ahdy, Hoda H H; Abdel-Fattah, Laila M; El-Sikaily, Amany M; Khaled, Azza; Tayel, Fathi M T

    2013-01-01

    Canned fish (tuna and sardine) of different geographical regions were collected randomly from supermarkets and were analyzed for heavy metal contents (Hg, Cd and Pb) polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, polychlorinated biphenyls, and pesticides. Canned fish samples (two brands of sardines, six brands of tuna) that were purchased from Egyptian cities between 2009 and 2010, represent four countries (Morocco, Republic of Yemen, Indonesia and Thailand). Health risks on humans via dietary intake of seafood were assessed by the target hazard quotients (THQs), potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic effects. The contents of trace metals in canned tuna and canned sardines were found as: 0.149-0.218 μg/g for Cd; 0.312-0.937 μg/g for Pb and 0.053-0.022 μg/g for Hg. Canned sardines fluctuated between 0.55 and 1.82, 1.08 and 1.64, 11.91 and 26.24 ng/g for total HCHs, Total cyclodienes and DDTs respectively while the corresponding concentrations in canned tuna were 0.24-1.85, 0.24-1‥85 and 6.56-49.73 ng/g, respectively. Total PCBs fluctuated between 21.75 and 55.10 for canned sardines and 8.56-208.11 ng/g for canned tuna. On the other hand the total PAHs fluctuated between 0.006-9.775 and 1.556-2.686 ng/g for tuna and sardines. From the human health point of view, there is no adverse health effect for both PAHs and heavy metals content on consumers. PMID:23802155

  20. Spatial ascariasis risk estimation using socioeconomic variables.

    PubMed

    Valencia, Luis Iván Ortiz; Fortes, Bruno de Paula Menezes Drumond; Medronho, Roberto de Andrade

    2005-12-01

    Frequently, disease incidence is mapped as area data, for example, census tracts, districts or states. Spatial disease incidence can be highly heterogeneous inside these areas. Ascariasis is a highly prevalent disease, which is associated with poor sanitation and hygiene. Geostatistics was applied to model spatial distribution of Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events in a poor community in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Data were gathered from a coproparasitologic and a domiciliary survey in 1550 children aged 1-9. Ascariasis risk and socioeconomic risk events were spatially estimated using Indicator Kriging. Cokriging models with a Linear Model of Coregionalization incorporating one socioeconomic variable were implemented. If a housewife attended school for less than four years, the non-use of a home water filter, a household density greater than one, and a household income lower than one Brazilian minimum wage increased the risk of Ascariasis. Cokriging improved spatial estimation of Ascariasis risk areas when compared to Indicator Kriging and detected more Ascariasis very-high risk areas than the GIS Overlay method. PMID:16506435

  1. Estimating the re-identification risk of clinical data sets

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background De-identification is a common way to protect patient privacy when disclosing clinical data for secondary purposes, such as research. One type of attack that de-identification protects against is linking the disclosed patient data with public and semi-public registries. Uniqueness is a commonly used measure of re-identification risk under this attack. If uniqueness can be measured accurately then the risk from this kind of attack can be managed. In practice, it is often not possible to measure uniqueness directly, therefore it must be estimated. Methods We evaluated the accuracy of uniqueness estimators on clinically relevant data sets. Four candidate estimators were identified because they were evaluated in the past and found to have good accuracy or because they were new and not evaluated comparatively before: the Zayatz estimator, slide negative binomial estimator, Pitman’s estimator, and mu-argus. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed to evaluate the uniqueness estimators on six clinically relevant data sets. We varied the sampling fraction and the uniqueness in the population (the value being estimated). The median relative error and inter-quartile range of the uniqueness estimates was measured across 1000 runs. Results There was no single estimator that performed well across all of the conditions. We developed a decision rule which selected between the Pitman, slide negative binomial and Zayatz estimators depending on the sampling fraction and the difference between estimates. This decision rule had the best consistent median relative error across multiple conditions and data sets. Conclusion This study identified an accurate decision rule that can be used by health privacy researchers and disclosure control professionals to estimate uniqueness in clinical data sets. The decision rule provides a reliable way to measure re-identification risk. PMID:22776564

  2. IMPROVED RISK ESTIMATES FOR CARBON TETRACHLORIDE

    EPA Science Inventory

    Carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) has been used extensively within the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities. Costs associated with cleanup of CCl4 at DOE facilities are driven by current cancer risk estimates which assume CCl4 is a genotoxic carcinogen. However, a grow...

  3. Estimating Terrorist Risk with Possibility Theory

    SciTech Connect

    J.L. Darby

    2004-11-30

    This report summarizes techniques that use possibility theory to estimate the risk of terrorist acts. These techniques were developed under the sponsorship of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) as part of the National Infrastructure Simulation Analysis Center (NISAC) project. The techniques have been used to estimate the risk of various terrorist scenarios to support NISAC analyses during 2004. The techniques are based on the Logic Evolved Decision (LED) methodology developed over the past few years by Terry Bott and Steve Eisenhawer at LANL. [LED] The LED methodology involves the use of fuzzy sets, possibility theory, and approximate reasoning. LED captures the uncertainty due to vagueness and imprecision that is inherent in the fidelity of the information available for terrorist acts; probability theory cannot capture these uncertainties. This report does not address the philosophy supporting the development of nonprobabilistic approaches, and it does not discuss possibility theory in detail. The references provide a detailed discussion of these subjects. [Shafer] [Klir and Yuan] [Dubois and Prade] Suffice to say that these approaches were developed to address types of uncertainty that cannot be addressed by a probability measure. An earlier report discussed in detail the problems with using a probability measure to evaluate terrorist risk. [Darby Methodology]. Two related techniques are discussed in this report: (1) a numerical technique, and (2) a linguistic technique. The numerical technique uses traditional possibility theory applied to crisp sets, while the linguistic technique applies possibility theory to fuzzy sets. Both of these techniques as applied to terrorist risk for NISAC applications are implemented in software called PossibleRisk. The techniques implemented in PossibleRisk were developed specifically for use in estimating terrorist risk for the NISAC program. The LEDTools code can be used to perform the same linguistic evaluation as

  4. Community Health Risk Assessment of Primary Aluminum Smelter Emissions

    PubMed Central

    Larivière, Claude

    2014-01-01

    Objective: Primary aluminum production is an industrial process with high potential health risk for workers. We consider in this article how to assess community health risks associated with primary aluminum smelter emissions. Methods: We reviewed the literature on health effects, community exposure data, and dose–response relationships of the principal hazardous agents emitted. Results: On the basis of representative measured community exposure levels, we were able to make rough estimates on health risks associated with specific agents and categorize these as none, low, medium, or high. Conclusions: It is possible to undertake a rough-estimate community Health Risk Assessment for individual smelters on the basis of information available in the epidemiological literature and local community exposure data. PMID:24806724

  5. Levels and sources of volatile organic compounds including carbonyls in indoor air of homes of Puertollano, the most industrialized city in central Iberian Peninsula. Estimation of health risk.

    PubMed

    Villanueva, Florentina; Tapia, Araceli; Amo-Salas, Mariano; Notario, Alberto; Cabañas, Beatriz; Martínez, Ernesto

    2015-08-01

    Twenty nine organic air pollutants including carbonyl compounds, alkanes, aromatic hydrocarbons and terpenes were measured in the indoor environment of different houses together with the corresponding outdoor measurements in Puertollano, the most industrialized city in central Iberian Peninsula. VOCs were sampled during 8 weeks using Radiello(®) passive samplers, and a questionnaire on potential VOCs sources was filled out by the occupants. The results show that formaldehyde and hexanal was the most abundant VOCs measured in indoor air, with a median concentration of 55.5 and 46.4μgm(-3), respectively followed by butanal (29.1μgm(-3)), acetone (28.4μgm(-3)) and acetaldehyde (21.4μgm(-3)). After carbonyls, n-dodecane (13.1μgm(-3)) and terpenes (α-pinene, 13.4μgm(-3) and limonene, 13.4μgm(-3)) were the compounds with higher median concentrations. The indoor/outdoor (I/O) ratios demonstrated that sources in the indoor environment are prevailing for most of the investigated VOCs especially for limonene, α-pinene, hexanal, formaldehyde, pentanal, acetaldehyde, o-xylene, n-dodecane and acetone with I/O ratio >6. Multiple linear regressions were applied to investigate the indoor VOC determinants and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to establish common sources between VOCs. Finally, the lifetime cancer risk associated to formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and benzene exposure was estimated and they varied from 7.8×10(-5) to 4.1×10(-4) for formaldehyde, from 8.6×10(-6) to 3.5×10(-5) for acetaldehyde and from 2.0×10(-6) to 1.5×10(-5) for benzene. For formaldehyde, the attributed risk in most sampled homes was two orders of magnitude higher than the one (10(-6)) proposed as acceptable by risk management bodies. PMID:26025206

  6. [Considerations about health risk management].

    PubMed

    Bossi, A; Abetti, P; De Luca, S; Masullo, M

    2003-01-01

    From the birth of doctrines of Risk Management to today a lot of time is passed. From the initial application in the field of the insurances and the management of the enterprises, theories inspired to the identification, evaluation and correction of connected risks to the activity and the industrial trial has been figurative to the health, field in which the application of these principles results to be how much never profit and productive of benefits above all for the patients that suffer consequences of errors but also for the physicians and the personnel that, perfectly inserted in an organization aware of the trials to put into effect, can bring their contribution to underline the weak points of the relief trial. The economic cost and consequences of errors can decrease if a new culture is established inspired to the learning and the communication of the adverse events, to minimize the possibility that they again occurs. PMID:14969298

  7. Clean Slate transportation and human health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    Public concern regarding activities involving radioactive material generally focuses on the human health risk associated with exposure to ionizing radiation. This report describes the results of a risk analysis conducted to evaluate risk for excavation, handling, and transport of soil contaminated with transuranics at the Clean Slate sites. Transportation risks were estimated for public transport routes from the Tonopah Test Range (TTR) to the Envirocore disposal facility or to the Area 3 Radioactive Waste Management Site (RWMS) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) for both radiological risk and risk due to traffic accidents. Human health risks were evaluated for occupational and radiation-related health effects to workers. This report was generated to respond to this public concern, to provide an evaluation of the risk, and to assess feasibility of transport of the contaminated soil for disposal.

  8. Risk management frameworks for human health and environmental risks.

    PubMed

    Jardine, Cindy; Hrudey, Steve; Shortreed, John; Craig, Lorraine; Krewski, Daniel; Furgal, Chris; McColl, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    A comprehensive analytical review of the risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication approaches currently being undertaken by key national, provincial/state, territorial, and international agencies was conducted. The information acquired for review was used to identify the differences, commonalities, strengths, and weaknesses among the various approaches, and to identify elements that should be included in an effective, current, and comprehensive approach applicable to environmental, human health and occupational health risks. More than 80 agencies, organizations, and advisory councils, encompassing more than 100 risk documents, were examined during the period from February 2000 until November 2002. An overview was made of the most important general frameworks for risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication for human health and ecological risk, and for occupational health risk. In addition, frameworks for specific applications were reviewed and summarized, including those for (1)contaminated sites; (2) northern contaminants; (3) priority substances; (4) standards development; (5) food safety; (6) medical devices; (7) prescription drug use; (8) emergency response; (9) transportation; (10) risk communication. Twelve frameworks were selected for more extensive review on the basis of representation of the areas of human health, ecological, and occupational health risk; relevance to Canadian risk management needs; representation of comprehensive and well-defined approaches; generalizability with their risk areas; representation of "state of the art" in Canada, the United States, and/or internationally; and extent of usage of potential usage within Canada. These 12 frameworks were: 1. Framework for Environmental Health Risk Management (US Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, 1997). 2. Health Risk Determination: The Challenge of Health Protection (Health and Welfare Canada, 1990). 3. Health Canada Decision

  9. Estimated Levels of Environmental Contamination and Health Risk Assessment for Herbicides and Insecticides in Surface Water of Ceará, Brazil.

    PubMed

    Sousa, Anayla S; Duaví, Wersângela C; Cavalcante, Rivelino M; Milhome, Maria Aparecida L; do Nascimento, Ronaldo F

    2016-01-01

    Methodology using solid phase extraction and high performance liquid chromatography (SPE-C18/HPLC-DAD) was applied to pesticide determinations in ten water reservoirs in the semidarid region of northeastern Brazil. The validated method was suitable for determination of herbicides and insecticide in surface water. The recovery efficiency of atrazine, methyl-parathion and simazine was approximately 70%. The method also showed good linearity and selectivity with correlation coefficients (R) greater than 0.99. The limits of detection were below the maximum residue limits (MRLs) established by government agencies. Studied reservoirs showed presence of atrazine at mean levels from 7.0 to 15.0 µg/L. Simazine and methyl parathion were not detected during the period. The atrazine levels measured from this semiarid region are of the same magnitude as those found in regions with moderate to high agricultural activity. According to detected atrazine concentrations, the annual health risk to humans was insignificant. However, the control of herbicides is important to maintain the quality of water in the reservoirs of Ceará, Brazil. PMID:26537372

  10. How to estimate your tolerance for risk

    SciTech Connect

    Mackay, J.A.

    1996-12-31

    Risk tolerance is used to calculate the Risk Adjusted Value (RAV) of a proposed investment. The RAV incorporates both the expected value and risk attitude for a particular investment, taking into consideration your concern for catastrophic financial loss, as well as chance of success, cost and value if successful. Uncertainty can be incorporated into all of the above variables. Often a project is more valuable to a corporation if a partial working interest is taken rather than the entire working interest. The RAV can be used to calculate the optimum working interest and the value of that diversification. To estimate the Apparent Risk Tolerance (ART) of an individual, division or corporation several methods can be employed: (1) ART can be calculated from the working interest selected in prior investment decisions. (2) ART can be estimated from a selection of working interests by the decision maker in a proposed portfolio of projects. (3) ART can be approximated from data released to the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) in the annual 10K supplements (for both your company and possible partners). (4) ART can be assigned based on corporate size, budget, or activity. Examples are provided for the various methods to identify risk tolerance and apply it in making optimum working interest calculations for individual projects and portfolios.

  11. A toolbox for health risk related decisions

    SciTech Connect

    Easterly, C.E.; Jones, T.D.

    1996-10-01

    Development efforts since the late 1970s have resulted in a generalized method for ranking health hazards. This method provides the basis for a wide range of applications where decisions are needed for allocating resources on the basis of health risk considerations. It has been used for more than a decade to solve real problems, and it is supported by 23 publications in the open literature. The diversity of this generalized methodology allows us to provide support in a great number of problem areas. we give four examples in this manuscript: the relative toxicities of petroleum mixtures; a method to derive Emergency Response Planning Guides; an estimate of the possible carcinogenic potency of tungsten, an alternative material to depleted uranium for heavy armor penetrators; and an approach to low dose extrapolation. Our experience suggests that many more applications of the original concept and variations on it can be of utility in military situations. Some potentially fruitful areas may be in the: development of a health-risk-ranking system for alternative solutions to manufacturing, waste management, and remediation; provision of a basis for identifying levels of hazardous agents which are below health concerns, or which should be of concern; development of a framework for evaluating chemicals and radioactive materials on the same basis, and in the development of a battery of in vitro bioassays which could take the place of long-term whole animal tests.

  12. Atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in an industrialized city, Kocaeli, Turkey: study of seasonal variations, influence of meteorological parameters and health risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Gaga, Eftade O; Ari, Akif; Döğeroğlu, Tuncay; Çakırca, E Emel; Machin, Nesrin E

    2012-08-01

    Ambient gas and particle phase samples were collected during two sampling periods from a residential area of an industrialized city, Kocaeli, Turkey. The sampling occurred during winter months when structures were being heated, and summer months when structures were not being heated. Σ(13)PAH (gas + particle) concentrations ranged between 6.2 ng m(-3) (DahA) and 98.6 ng m(-3) (Phe) in the heating (winter) period and 3.0 ng m(-3) (BaA) and 35.1 ng m(-3) (Phe) in the non-heating (summer) period. Phe, Flt and Pyr were found to be at high concentrations in both sampling periods. Winter time to summer time concentration ratios for individual ambient PAH concentration ratios ranged between 1.2 (DahA) and 17.5 (Flu), indicating the effect of the emissions from residential heating on measured concentrations of PAHs, but great industrial plants and the only incinerator facility of Turkey are other important pollution sources around the city. Temperature dependence of gas phase PAHs was investigated using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. A high slope obtained (5069.7) indicated the effect of the local sources on measured gas phase PAHs. Correlation of the supercooled vapor pressure (P) with the gas particle partitioning coefficient (K(p)) and particle phase fraction was also evaluated. The relationship between the meteorological parameters and individual PAH (gas + particle) concentrations was investigated further by multiple linear regression analysis. It was found that the temperature had a significant effect on all of the measured PAH concentrations, while the effects of the wind speed and direction were not significant on the individual PAHs. On the other hand, PAH concentrations showed a strong linear relationship with the ventilation coefficient (VC) which showed the influence of local sources on measured PAHs. Benzo[a]pyrene toxic equivalent (BaP(eq.)) concentrations were used for health risk assessment purposes. The winter period risk level (2.92 × 10(-3)) due to

  13. INCORPORATING HUMAN INTERINDIVIDUAL BIOTRANSFORMATION VARIANCE IN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    The protection of sensitive individuals within a population dictates that measures other than central tendencies be employed to estimate risk. The refinement of human health risk assessments for chemicals metabolized by the liver to reflect data on human variability can be accom...

  14. A new approach to criteria for health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Spickett, Jeffery; Katscherian, Dianne; Goh, Yang Miang

    2012-01-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) is a developing component of the overall impact assessment process and as such needs access to procedures that can enable more consistent approaches to the stepwise process that is now generally accepted in both EIA and HIA. The guidelines developed during this project provide a structured process, based on risk assessment procedures which use consequences and likelihood, as a way of ranking risks to adverse health outcomes from activities subjected to HIA or HIA as part of EIA. The aim is to assess the potential for both acute and chronic health outcomes. The consequences component also identifies a series of consequences for the health care system, depicted as expressions of financial expenditure and the capacity of the health system. These more specific health risk assessment characteristics should provide for a broader consideration of health consequences and a more consistent estimation of the adverse health risks of a proposed development at both the scoping and risk assessment stages of the HIA process. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer A more objective approach to health risk assessment is provided. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences for chronic and acute impacts. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for the consequences on the health care system. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer An objective set of criteria for event frequency that could impact on health. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The approach presented is currently being trialled in Australia.

  15. Nonparametric estimation with recurrent competing risks data

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    Nonparametric estimators of component and system life distributions are developed and presented for situations where recurrent competing risks data from series systems are available. The use of recurrences of components’ failures leads to improved efficiencies in statistical inference, thereby leading to resource-efficient experimental or study designs or improved inferences about the distributions governing the event times. Finite and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained through simulation studies and analytically. The detrimental impact of parametric model misspecification is also vividly demonstrated, lending credence to the virtue of adopting nonparametric or semiparametric models, especially in biomedical settings. The estimators are illustrated by applying them to a data set pertaining to car repairs for vehicles that were under warranty. PMID:24072583

  16. Multilevel regression and poststratification for small-area estimation of population health outcomes: a case study of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease prevalence using the behavioral risk factor surveillance system.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xingyou; Holt, James B; Lu, Hua; Wheaton, Anne G; Ford, Earl S; Greenlund, Kurt J; Croft, Janet B

    2014-04-15

    A variety of small-area statistical models have been developed for health surveys, but none are sufficiently flexible to generate small-area estimates (SAEs) to meet data needs at different geographic levels. We developed a multilevel logistic model with both state- and nested county-level random effects for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) using 2011 data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We applied poststratification with the (decennial) US Census 2010 counts of census-block population to generate census-block-level SAEs of COPD prevalence which could be conveniently aggregated to all other census geographic units, such as census tracts, counties, and congressional districts. The model-based SAEs and direct survey estimates of COPD prevalence were quite consistent at both the county and state levels. The Pearson correlation coefficient was 0.99 at the state level and ranged from 0.88 to 0.95 at the county level. Our extended multilevel regression modeling and poststratification approach could be adapted for other geocoded national health surveys to generate reliable SAEs for population health outcomes at all administrative and legislative geographic levels of interest in a scalable framework. PMID:24598867

  17. The Health Risks of Asian Americans. Editorial.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yu, Elena S. H.

    1991-01-01

    Although Asian Americans are the fastest growing ethnic minority group in the United States, relatively little is known about the health risks and morbidity of different Asian-American groups. A national survey (National Health Interview Survey) is needed to clarify the health risks of major Asian-American subgroups. (SLD)

  18. Propidium monoazide RTqPCR assays for the assessment of hepatitis A inactivation and for a better estimation of the health risk of contaminated waters.

    PubMed

    Fuster, Noemí; Pintó, Rosa M; Fuentes, Cristina; Beguiristain, Nerea; Bosch, Albert; Guix, Susana

    2016-09-15

    health risk associated to contaminated waters. PMID:27262550

  19. Health risk of chrysotile revisited

    PubMed Central

    Dunnigan, Jacques; Hesterberg, Thomas; Brown, Robert; Velasco, Juan Antonio Legaspi; Barrera, Raúl; Hoskins, John; Gibbs, Allen

    2013-01-01

    This review provides a basis for substantiating both kinetically and pathologically the differences between chrysotile and amphibole asbestos. Chrysotile, which is rapidly attacked by the acid environment of the macrophage, falls apart in the lung into short fibers and particles, while the amphibole asbestos persist creating a response to the fibrous structure of this mineral. Inhalation toxicity studies of chrysotile at non-lung overload conditions demonstrate that the long (>20 µm) fibers are rapidly cleared from the lung, are not translocated to the pleural cavity and do not initiate fibrogenic response. In contrast, long amphibole asbestos fibers persist, are quickly (within 7 d) translocated to the pleural cavity and result in interstitial fibrosis and pleural inflammation. Quantitative reviews of epidemiological studies of mineral fibers have determined the potency of chrysotile and amphibole asbestos for causing lung cancer and mesothelioma in relation to fiber type and have also differentiated between these two minerals. These studies have been reviewed in light of the frequent use of amphibole asbestos. As with other respirable particulates, there is evidence that heavy and prolonged exposure to chrysotile can produce lung cancer. The importance of the present and other similar reviews is that the studies they report show that low exposures to chrysotile do not present a detectable risk to health. Since total dose over time decides the likelihood of disease occurrence and progression, they also suggest that the risk of an adverse outcome may be low with even high exposures experienced over a short duration. PMID:23346982

  20. Extreme Earthquake Risk Estimation by Hybrid Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chavez, M.; Cabrera, E.; Ashworth, M.; Garcia, S.; Emerson, D.; Perea, N.; Salazar, A.; Moulinec, C.

    2012-12-01

    The estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences i.e. the risk associated to the occurrence of extreme magnitude earthquakes in the neighborhood of urban or lifeline infrastructure, such as the 11 March 2011 Mw 9, Tohoku, Japan, represents a complex challenge as it involves the propagation of seismic waves in large volumes of the earth crust, from unusually large seismic source ruptures up to the infrastructure location. The large number of casualties and huge economic losses observed for those earthquakes, some of which have a frequency of occurrence of hundreds or thousands of years, calls for the development of new paradigms and methodologies in order to generate better estimates, both of the seismic hazard, as well as of its consequences, and if possible, to estimate the probability distributions of their ground intensities and of their economical impacts (direct and indirect losses), this in order to implement technological and economical policies to mitigate and reduce, as much as possible, the mentioned consequences. Herewith, we propose a hybrid modeling which uses 3D seismic wave propagation (3DWP) and neural network (NN) modeling in order to estimate the seismic risk of extreme earthquakes. The 3DWP modeling is achieved by using a 3D finite difference code run in the ~100 thousands cores Blue Gene Q supercomputer of the STFC Daresbury Laboratory of UK, combined with empirical Green function (EGF) techniques and NN algorithms. In particular the 3DWP is used to generate broadband samples of the 3D wave propagation of extreme earthquakes (plausible) scenarios corresponding to synthetic seismic sources and to enlarge those samples by using feed-forward NN. We present the results of the validation of the proposed hybrid modeling for Mw 8 subduction events, and show examples of its application for the estimation of the hazard and the economical consequences, for extreme Mw 8.5 subduction earthquake scenarios with seismic sources in the Mexican

  1. [Epidemiological data and radiation risk estimates].

    PubMed

    Cardis, E

    2002-01-01

    The results of several major epidemiology studies on populations with particular exposure to ionizing radiation should become available during the first years of the 21(st) century. These studies are expected to provide answers to a number of questions concerning public health and radiation protection. Most of the populations concerned were accidentally exposed to radiation in ex-USSR or elsewhere or in a nuclear industrial context. The results will complete and test information on risk coming from studies among survivors of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki atomic bombs, particularly studies on the effects of low dose exposure and prolonged low-dose exposure, of different types of radiation, and environmental and host-related factors which could modify the risk of radiation-induced effects. These studies are thus important to assess the currently accepted scientific evidence on radiation protection for workers and the general population. In addition, supplementary information on radiation protection could be provided by formal comparisons and analyses combining data from populations with different types of exposure. Finally, in order to provide pertinent information for public health and radiation protection, future epidemiology studies should be targeted and designed to answer specific questions, concerning, for example, the risk for specific populations (children, patients, people with genetic predisposition). An integrated approach, combining epidemiology and studies on the mechanisms of radiation induction should provide particularly pertinent information. PMID:11938114

  2. Health Risk Appraisal Use at Headquarters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borcherding, Donald

    1997-01-01

    Specific topics which relate to the NASA Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) include: (1) What is a HRA?; (2) Risk factors; (3) Program use at NASA Headquarters; (4) An alternative approach; (5) Group HRA reports; and (6) Future considerations and conclusion.

  3. Reexamination of spent fuel shipment risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    COOK,J.R.; SPRUNG,JEREMY L.

    2000-04-25

    The risks associated with the transport of spent nuclear fuel by truck and rail have been reexamined and compared to results published in NUREG-O170 and the Modal Study. The full reexamination considered transport of PWR and BWR spent fuel by truck and rail in four generic Type B spent fuel casks. Because they are typical, this paper presents results only for transport of PWR spent fuel in steel-lead steel casks. Cask and spent fuel response to collision impacts and fires were evaluated by performing three-dimensional finite element and one-dimensional heat transport calculations. Accident release fractions were developed by critical review of literature data. Accident severity fractions were developed from Modal Study truck and rail accident event trees, modified to reflect the frequency of occurrence of hard and soft rock wayside route surfaces as determined by analysis of geographic data. Incident-free population doses and the population dose risks associated with the accidents that might occur during transport were calculated using the RADTRAN 5 transportation risk code. The calculated incident-free doses were compared to those published in NUREG-O170. The calculated accident dose risks were compared to dose risks calculated using NUREG-0170 and Modal Study accident source terms. The comparisons demonstrated that both of these studies made a number of very conservative assumptions about spent fuel and cask response to accident conditions, which caused their estimates of accident source terms, accident frequencies, and accident consequences to also be very conservative. The results of this study and the previous studies demonstrate that the risks associated with the shipment of spent fuel by truck or rail are very small.

  4. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, Stanley B.

    1993-01-01

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  5. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B. ||

    1993-12-31

    A number of considerations must go into the process of determining the risk of deleterious effects of space radiation to travelers. Among them are (1) determination of the components of the radiation environment (particle species, fluxes and energy spectra) which will encounter, (2) determination of the effects of shielding provided by the spacecraft and the bodies of the travelers which modify the incident particle spectra and mix of particles, and (3) determination of relevant biological effects of the radiation in the organs of interest. The latter can then lead to an estimation of risk from a given space scenario. Clearly, the process spans many scientific disciplines from solar and cosmic ray physics to radiation transport theeory to the multistage problem of the induction by radiation of initial lesions in living material and their evolution via physical, chemical, and biological processes at the molecular, cellular, and tissue levels to produce the end point of importance.

  6. Climate-informed flood risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, T.; Devineni, N.; Lima, C.; Lall, U.

    2013-12-01

    Currently, flood risk assessments are typically tied to a peak flow event that has an associated return period and inundation extent. This method is convenient: based on a historical record of annual maximum flows, a return period can be calculated with some assumptions about the probability distribution and stationarity. It is also problematic in its stationarity assumption, reliance on relatively short records, and treating flooding as a random event disconnected from large-scale climate processes. Recognizing these limitations, we have developed a new approach to flood risk assessment that connects climate variability, precipitation dynamics, and flood modeling to estimate the likelihood of flooding. To provide more robust, long time series of precipitation, we used stochastic weather generator models to simulate the rainfall fields. The method uses a k-nearest neighbor resampling algorithm in conjunction with a non-parametric empirical copulas based simulation strategy to reproduce the temporal and spatial dynamics, respectively. Climate patterns inform the likelihood of heavy rainfall in the model. For example, ENSO affects the likelihood of wet or dry years in Australia, and this is incorporated in the model. The stochastic simulations are then used to drive a cascade of models to predict flood inundation. Runoff is generated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, fed into a full kinematic wave routing model at high resolution, and the kinematic wave is used as a boundary condition to predict flood inundation using a coupled storage cell model. Combining the strengths of a stochastic model for rainfall and a physical model for flood prediction allows us to overcome the limitations of traditional flood risk assessment and provide robust estimates of flood risk.

  7. A simulation study to determine the attenuation and bias in health risk estimates due to exposure measurement error in bi-pollutant models

    EPA Science Inventory

    To understand the combined health effects of exposure to ambient air pollutant mixtures, it is becoming more common to include multiple pollutants in epidemiologic models. However, the complex spatial and temporal pattern of ambient pollutant concentrations and related exposures ...

  8. Launch Risk Acceptability Considering Uncertainty in Risk Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collins, J. D.; Carbon, S. L.

    2010-09-01

    Quantification of launch risk is difficult and uncertain due to the assumptions made in the modeling process and the difficulty in developing the supporting data. This means that estimates of the risks are uncertain and the decision maker must decide on the acceptability of the launch under uncertainty. This paper describes the process to quantify the uncertainty and, in the process, describes the separate roles of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in obtaining the point estimate of the casualty expectation and, ultimately, the distribution of the uncertainty in the computed casualty expectation. Tables are included of the significant sources and the nature of the contributing uncertainties. In addition, general procedures and an example are also included to describe the computational procedure. The second part of the paper discusses how the quantified uncertainty should be applied to the decision-making process. This discussion describes the procedure proposed and adopted by the Risk Committee of the Range Commander’s Council Range Safety Group which will be published in RCC 321-10 [1].

  9. Health Risk Assessments for Alumina Refineries

    PubMed Central

    Coffey, Patrick S.

    2014-01-01

    Objective: To describe contemporary air dispersion modeling and health risk assessment methodologies applied to alumina refineries and to summarize recent results. Methods: Air dispersion models using emission source and meteorological data have been used to assess ground-level concentrations (GLCs) of refinery emissions. Short-term (1-hour and 24-hour average) GLCs and annual average GLCs have been used to assess acute health, chronic health, and incremental carcinogenic risks. Results: The acute hazard index can exceed 1 close to refineries, but it is typically less than 1 at neighboring residential locations. The chronic hazard index is typically substantially less than 1. The incremental carcinogenic risk is typically less than 10−6. Conclusions: The risks of acute health effects are adequately controlled, and the risks of chronic health effects and incremental carcinogenic risks are negligible around referenced alumina refineries. PMID:24806721

  10. Profiles of Risk: Maternal Health, Socioeconomic Status, and Child Health

    PubMed Central

    Hardie, Jessica Halliday; Landale, Nancy S.

    2013-01-01

    Child health is fundamental to well-being and achievement throughout the life course. Prior research has demonstrated strong associations between familial socioeconomic resources and children’s health outcomes, with especially poor health outcomes among disadvantaged youth who experience a concentration of risks, yet little is known about the influence of maternal health as a dimension of risk for children. This research used nationally representative U.S. data from the National Health Interview Surveys in 2007 and 2008 (N = 7,361) to evaluate the joint implications of maternal health and socioeconomic disadvantage for youth. Analyses revealed that maternal health problems were present in a substantial minority of families, clustered meaningfully with other risk factors, and had serious implications for children’s health. These findings support the development of health policies and interventions aimed at families. PMID:23794751

  11. Addressing Risks to Advance Mental Health Research

    PubMed Central

    Iltis, Ana S.; Misra, Sahana; Dunn, Laura B.; Brown, Gregory K.; Campbell, Amy; Earll, Sarah A.; Glowinski, Anne; Hadley, Whitney B.; Pies, Ronald; DuBois, James M.

    2015-01-01

    Objective Risk communication and management are essential to the ethical conduct of research, yet addressing risks may be time consuming for investigators and institutional review boards (IRBs) may reject study designs that appear too risky. This can discourage needed research, particularly in higher risk protocols or those enrolling potentially vulnerable individuals, such as those with some level of suicidality. Improved mechanisms for addressing research risks may facilitate much needed psychiatric research. This article provides mental health researchers with practical approaches to: 1) identify and define various intrinsic research risks; 2) communicate these risks to others (e.g., potential participants, regulatory bodies, society); 3) manage these risks during the course of a study; and 4) justify the risks. Methods As part of a National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH)-funded scientific meeting series, a public conference and a closed-session expert panel meeting were held on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. The expert panel reviewed the literature with a focus on empirical studies and developed recommendations for best practices and further research on managing and disclosing risks in mental health clinical trials. IRB review was not required because there were no human subjects. The NIMH played no role in developing or reviewing the manuscript. Results Challenges, current data, practical strategies, and topics for future research are addressed for each of four key areas pertaining to management and disclosure of risks in clinical trials: identifying and defining risks, communicating risks, managing risks during studies, and justifying research risks. Conclusions Empirical data on risk communication, managing risks, and the benefits of research can support the ethical conduct of mental health research and may help investigators better conceptualize and confront risks and to gain IRB approval. PMID:24173618

  12. Estimating the risk of Amazonian forest dieback.

    PubMed

    Rammig, Anja; Jupp, Tim; Thonicke, Kirsten; Tietjen, Britta; Heinke, Jens; Ostberg, Sebastian; Lucht, Wolfgang; Cramer, Wolfgang; Cox, Peter

    2010-08-01

    *Climate change will very likely affect most forests in Amazonia during the course of the 21st century, but the direction and intensity of the change are uncertain, in part because of differences in rainfall projections. In order to constrain this uncertainty, we estimate the probability for biomass change in Amazonia on the basis of rainfall projections that are weighted by climate model performance for current conditions. *We estimate the risk of forest dieback by using weighted rainfall projections from 24 general circulation models (GCMs) to create probability density functions (PDFs) for future forest biomass changes simulated by a dynamic vegetation model (LPJmL). *Our probabilistic assessment of biomass change suggests a likely shift towards increasing biomass compared with nonweighted results. Biomass estimates range between a gain of 6.2 and a loss of 2.7 kg carbon m(-2) for the Amazon region, depending on the strength of CO(2) fertilization. *The uncertainty associated with the long-term effect of CO(2) is much larger than that associated with precipitation change. This underlines the importance of reducing uncertainties in the direct effects of CO(2) on tropical ecosystems. PMID:20553387

  13. New Mexico Adolescent Health Risks Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Antle, David

    To inform students of health risks (posed by behavior, environment, and genetics) and provide schools with collective risk appraisal information as a basis for planning/evaluating health and wellness initiatives, New Mexico administered the Teen Wellness Check in 1985 to 1,573 ninth-grade students from 7 New Mexico public schools. Subjects were…

  14. Software risk estimation and management techniques at JPL

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hihn, J.; Lum, K.

    2002-01-01

    In this talk we will discuss how uncertainty has been incorporated into the JPL software model, probabilistic-based estimates, and how risk is addressed, how cost risk is currently being explored via a variety of approaches, from traditional risk lists, to detailed WBS-based risk estimates to the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool.

  15. Educated guesses: health risk assessment in environmental impact statements.

    PubMed

    Harvey, P D

    1990-01-01

    Environmental pollution threatens public health. The search for solutions has advanced the frontiers of science and law. Efforts to protect the environment and public health begin with describing potential adverse consequences of human activities and characterizing the predicted risk. The National Environmental Policy Act requires the preparation of environmental impact statements to describe the effects of proposed federal projects and provide information for agency decisionmakers and the public. Risks to public health are particularly difficult to quantify because of uncertainty about the relation between exposure to environmental contamination and disease. Risk assessment is the current scientific tool to present estimates of risk. The methodology has created controversy, however, when underlying assumptions and uncertainties are not clearly presented. Critics caution that the methodology is vulnerable to bias. This Note evaluates the use of risk assessment in the environmental impact statement process and offers recommendations to ensure informed decisions. PMID:2278245

  16. [Forest health ecological risk assessment in China].

    PubMed

    Xiao, Fengjin; Ouyang, Hua; Cheng, Shulan; Zhang, Qiang

    2004-02-01

    Forest health ecological risk assessment is an important factor in forest resources management. In this paper, we selected forest fire, forest disease-pest disasters and acid rain as main risk sources, described the risk resources by probability, intensity and distributing, and mapped each risk source. The endpoints were the damages that the risk acceptor might and these damages might cause ecosystems' organization and function changing under the uncertainty risk sources. Endpoints of forest might compose of productivity descent, reducing biodiversity, forest degrading, forest ecological function declining, furthermore, forest disappearing. We described exposure in terms of intensity, space, and time. In the exposure and hazard analysis, we used fragile index to show frangibility or resistibility (resistibility is reverse to frangibility), and analyzed the damages by different risk sources. Risk assessment and management was the integrated phase of the research. Because of the spatial heterogeneity of risk sources, all risk index were overlaid in the China map by GIS, which divided the region into 30 ecological risk sub-zones (provinces), according to risk index of each risk sub-zone, and the forest in China was divided into six levels of risk zones. In every level of risk zones, we also put forward the countermeasures for forest health ecological risk management. The result of assessment could provide scientific basis for forest management. PMID:15146655

  17. GFR Estimation: From Physiology to Public Health

    PubMed Central

    Levey, Andrew S.; Inker, Lesley A.; Coresh, Josef

    2014-01-01

    Estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is essential for clinical practice, research, and public health. Appropriate interpretation of estimated GFR (eGFR) requires understanding the principles of physiology, laboratory medicine, epidemiology and biostatistics used in the development and validation of GFR estimating equations. Equations developed in diverse populations are less biased at higher GFR than equations developed in CKD populations and are more appropriate for general use. Equations that include multiple endogenous filtration markers are more precise than equations including a single filtration marker. The Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equations are the most accurate GFR estimating equations that have been evaluated in large, diverse populations and are applicable for general clinical use. The 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation is more accurate in estimating GFR and prognosis than the 2006 Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation and provides lower estimates of prevalence of decreased eGFR. It is useful as a “first” test for decreased eGFR and should replace the MDRD Study equation for routine reporting of serum creatinine–based eGFR by clinical laboratories. The 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equation is as accurate as the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine equation in estimating eGFR, does not require specification of race, and may be more accurate in patients with decreased muscle mass. The 2012 CKD-EPI creatinine–cystatin C equation is more accurate than the 2009 CKD-EPI creatinine and 2012 CKD-EPI cystatin C equations and is useful as a confirmatory test for decreased eGFR as determined by an equation based on serum creatinine. Further improvement in GFR estimating equations will require development in more broadly representative populations, including diverse racial and ethnic groups, use of multiple filtration markers, and evaluation using statistical techniques to compare eGFR to “true GFR”. PMID

  18. Health Risk Behaviors in Parentally Bereaved Youth

    PubMed Central

    Muñiz-Cohen, Melissa; Melhem, Nadine M.; Brent, David A.

    2010-01-01

    Objective To investigate whether parentally bereaved offspring are more likely to engage in health risk behaviors than nonbereaved control offspring. Design Controlled population-based study. Setting Bereaved families were recruited from coroner records and by advertisement. Control families were recruited using random-digit dialing and by advertisement. Participants At 9.0 months after the death, 186 offspring aged 7 to 25 years of parents who died of suicide, accident, or sudden natural death were compared with 167 nonbereaved control offspring. Main Outcome Measures The association of bereavement with health risk behaviors was examined. The prevalences of health risk behaviors on the Youth Risk Behavior Questionnaire were compared between bereaved and nonbereaved offspring. Risk behaviors surveyed were related to unintentional injury, violence, sexual behavior, cigarette smoking, and alcohol or other drug use. Results No statistically significant difference was noted in the examined health risk behaviors between bereaved and nonbereaved offspring. Conclusions Bereaved offspring did not engage in more health risk behaviors compared with nonbereaved offspring. Primary care physicians counseling youth should inquire about health risk behaviors in general. PMID:20603461

  19. Estimates of Preventability and Their Relation to Health Behavior.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poole, Gary D.

    It was hypothesized that a person's estimates of the preventability of health problems would be related to health behaviors such that a person who engages in healthful behavior should make higher estimates of preventability. A study was conducted to investigate the relationship between causal attribution of health problems and health-related…

  20. Cancer Risk Estimates from Space Flight Estimated Using Yields of Chromosome Damage in Astronaut's Blood Lymphocytes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    George, Kerry A.; Rhone, J.; Chappell, L. J.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2011-01-01

    To date, cytogenetic damage has been assessed in blood lymphocytes from more than 30 astronauts before and after they participated in long-duration space missions of three months or more on board the International Space Station. Chromosome damage was assessed using fluorescence in situ hybridization whole chromosome analysis techniques. For all individuals, the frequency of chromosome damage measured within a month of return from space was higher than their preflight yield, and biodosimetry estimates were within the range expected from physical dosimetry. Follow up analyses have been performed on most of the astronauts at intervals ranging from around 6 months to many years after flight, and the cytogenetic effects of repeat long-duration missions have so far been assessed in four individuals. Chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes have been validated as biomarkers of cancer risk and cytogenetic damage can therefore be used to characterize excess health risk incurred by individual crewmembers after their respective missions. Traditional risk assessment models are based on epidemiological data obtained on Earth in cohorts exposed predominantly to acute doses of gamma-rays, and the extrapolation to the space environment is highly problematic, involving very large uncertainties. Cytogenetic damage could play a key role in reducing uncertainty in risk estimation because it is incurred directly in the space environment, using specimens from the astronauts themselves. Relative cancer risks were estimated from the biodosimetry data using the quantitative approach derived from the European Study Group on Cytogenetic Biomarkers and Health database. Astronauts were categorized into low, medium, or high tertiles according to their yield of chromosome damage. Age adjusted tertile rankings were used to estimate cancer risk and results were compared with values obtained using traditional modeling approaches. Individual tertile rankings increased after space

  1. Health risk and access to employer-provided health insurance.

    PubMed

    Buchmueller, T C

    1995-01-01

    The attractiveness of a job offering health benefits increases with a worker's expected medical expenditures. At the same time, employers have an incentive to screen out high-risk workers. Evidence from the 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation indicates that employer screening dominates high-risk workers' desire to select jobs that offer insurance. Workers who describe their health as fair or poor, report difficulty with physical tasks, or have a work-related disability are less likely to receive employer-provided health insurance than healthy workers. Part of this effect is explained by the negative impact of poor health on earnings and labor supply. PMID:7713620

  2. Global Building Inventory for Earthquake Loss Estimation and Risk Management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, Kishor; Wald, David; Porter, Keith

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat’s demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature.

  3. Uncertainty of Calculated Risk Estimates for Secondary Malignancies After Radiotherapy

    SciTech Connect

    Kry, Stephen F. . E-mail: sfkry@mdanderson.org; Followill, David; White, R. Allen; Stovall, Marilyn; Kuban, Deborah A.; Salehpour, Mohammad

    2007-07-15

    Purpose: The significance of risk estimates for fatal secondary malignancies caused by out-of-field radiation exposure remains unresolved because the uncertainty in calculated risk estimates has not been established. This work examines the uncertainty in absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of risk estimates between different treatment modalities. Methods and Materials: Clinically reasonable out-of-field doses and calculated risk estimates were taken from the literature for several prostate treatment modalities, including intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT), and were recalculated using the most recent risk model. The uncertainties in this risk model and uncertainties in the linearity of the dose-response model were considered in generating 90% confidence intervals for the uncertainty in the absolute risk estimates and in the ratio of the risk estimates. Results: The absolute risk estimates of fatal secondary malignancy were associated with very large uncertainties, which precluded distinctions between the risks associated with the different treatment modalities considered. However, a much smaller confidence interval exists for the ratio of risk estimates, and this ratio between different treatment modalities may be statistically significant when there is an effective dose equivalent difference of at least 50%. Such a difference may exist between clinically reasonable treatment options, including 6-MV IMRT versus 18-MV IMRT for prostate therapy. Conclusion: The ratio of the risk between different treatment modalities may be significantly different. Consequently risk models and associated risk estimates may be useful and meaningful for evaluating different treatment options. The calculated risk of secondary malignancy should be considered in the selection of an optimal treatment plan.

  4. Public Health Risk Conditioned by Chemical Composition of Ground Water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yankovich, E.; Osipova, N.; Yankovich, K.; Matveenko, I.

    2016-03-01

    The article studies the public health potential risk originated from water consumption and estimated on the basis of the groundwater chemical composition. We have processed the results of chemical groundwater analysis in different aquifers of Tomsk district (Tomsk Oblast, Russia). More than 8400 samples of chemical groundwater analyses were taken during long-term observation period. Human health risk assessment of exposure to contaminants in drinking water was performed in accordance with the risk assessment guidance for public health concerning chemical pollution of the environment (Russian reference number: 2.1.10.1920-04-M, 2004). Identified potential risks were estimated for consuming water of each aquifer. The comparative analysis of water quality of different aquifers was performed on the basis of the risk coefficient of the total non-carcinogenic effects. The non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the Tomsk district population due to groundwater consumption without prior sanitary treatment was admitted acceptable. A rather similar picture is observed for all aquifers, although deeper aquifers show lower hazard coefficients.

  5. Risk management issues in postmenopausal health care.

    PubMed

    Edozien, Leroy C

    2007-12-01

    As in other areas of clinical activity, unintended harm to patients may occur in the course of postmenopausal health care, and measures to ensure patient safety should be actively promoted. This paper discusses the application of some basic principles of risk management to postmenopausal health care. To facilitate communication and reduce errors in diagnosis and treatment, risk management should be incorporated in the development of a dedicated menopause service. PMID:18088524

  6. Health Risk Behaviors and Academic Achievement

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2009 † Health-Risk Behaviors Percentage of U.S. high school students who engaged in each risk behavior, by type of grades mostly earned A’s B’s C’s D’s/F’s Unintentional Injury and Violence-Related Behaviors Rarely or never wore a seat ...

  7. Air pollution and health risks due to vehicle traffic.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kai; Batterman, Stuart

    2013-04-15

    Traffic congestion increases vehicle emissions and degrades ambient air quality, and recent studies have shown excess morbidity and mortality for drivers, commuters and individuals living near major roadways. Presently, our understanding of the air pollution impacts from congestion on roads is very limited. This study demonstrates an approach to characterize risks of traffic for on- and near-road populations. Simulation modeling was used to estimate on- and near-road NO2 concentrations and health risks for freeway and arterial scenarios attributable to traffic for different traffic volumes during rush hour periods. The modeling used emission factors from two different models (Comprehensive Modal Emissions Model and Motor Vehicle Emissions Factor Model version 6.2), an empirical traffic speed-volume relationship, the California Line Source Dispersion Model, an empirical NO2-NOx relationship, estimated travel time changes during congestion, and concentration-response relationships from the literature, which give emergency doctor visits, hospital admissions and mortality attributed to NO2 exposure. An incremental analysis, which expresses the change in health risks for small increases in traffic volume, showed non-linear effects. For a freeway, "U" shaped trends of incremental risks were predicted for on-road populations, and incremental risks are flat at low traffic volumes for near-road populations. For an arterial road, incremental risks increased sharply for both on- and near-road populations as traffic increased. These patterns result from changes in emission factors, the NO2-NOx relationship, the travel delay for the on-road population, and the extended duration of rush hour for the near-road population. This study suggests that health risks from congestion are potentially significant, and that additional traffic can significantly increase risks, depending on the type of road and other factors. Further, evaluations of risk associated with congestion must

  8. Health risks from indoor formaldehyde exposures in northwest weatherized residences

    SciTech Connect

    Mellinger, P.J.; Sever, L.E.

    1986-10-01

    Conflicting opinions on the potential hazards associated with formaldehyde exposure triggered a national workshop to address the toxicological questions concerning the health effects of formaldehyde. Since quantitative human data are not available to derive a dose-response curve for formaldehyde risk assessment, nonhuman data are used. In the case of formaldehyde, data from animals exposed to high concentrations are used to estimate human risk at much lower concentrations. This study presents the several steps that make up a risk assessment and examines any additional data that might alter significantly the risk estimates presented in the 1984 EIS. Rat inhalation chronic bioassay data from a study sponsored by the Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology (CIIT) have been used to develop a risk equation that was subsequently used by BPA in its EIS. The CIIT data base remains the only acceptable animal data that can support the estimation of a dose-response curve. The development of mathematical models continues with a great deal of energy, and the use of different models is largely responsible for the great variability of the formaldehyde risk estimates. While one can calculate different values for carcinogenic risk associated with formaldehyde exposure than were presented earlier in the BPA EIS, they are not likely to be any better.

  9. Adjusting Population Risk for Functional Health Status.

    PubMed

    Fuller, Richard L; Hughes, John S; Goldfield, Norbert I

    2016-04-01

    Risk adjustment accounts for differences in population mix by reducing the likelihood of enrollee selection by managed care plans and providing a correction to otherwise biased reporting of provider or plan performance. Functional health status is not routinely included within risk-adjustment methods, but is believed by many to be a significant enhancement to risk adjustment for complex enrollees and patients. In this analysis a standardized measure of functional health was created using 3 different source functional assessment instruments submitted to the Medicare program on condition of payment. The authors use a 5% development sample of Medicare claims from 2006 and 2007, including functional health assessments, and develop a model of functional health classification comprising 9 groups defined by the interaction of self-care, mobility, incontinence, and cognitive impairment. The 9 functional groups were used to augment Clinical Risk Groups, a diagnosis-based patient classification system, and when using a validation set of 100% of Medicare data for 2010 and 2011, this study found the use of the functional health module to improve the fit of observed enrollee cost, measured by the R(2) statistic, by 5% across all Medicare enrollees. The authors observed complex nonlinear interactions across functional health domains when constructing the model and caution that functional health status needs careful handling when used for risk adjustment. The addition of functional health status within existing risk-adjustment models has the potential to improve equitable resource allocation in the financing of care costs for more complex enrollees if handled appropriately. (Population Health Management 2016;19:136-144). PMID:26348621

  10. The over-estimation of risk in pregnancy.

    PubMed

    Robinson, Monique; Pennell, Craig E; McLean, Neil J; Oddy, Wendy H; Newnham, John P

    2011-06-01

    The concept of risk is especially salient to obstetric care. Unknown factors can still be responsible for peri-natal morbidity and mortality in circumstances that appeared to present little risk, while perfectly healthy infants are born in high-risk circumstances: a contradiction that patients and providers struggle with on a daily basis. With such contradictions comes the potential for the over-estimation of risk during pregnancy in order to assure a positive outcome. Understanding and addressing the estimation of risk during pregnancy requires acknowledging the history of obstetric risk in addition to understanding risk-related psychological theory. A relationship of trust between provider and patient is vital in addressing risk over-estimation, as is encouraging the development of self-efficacy in patients. Ultimately obstetric care is complex and efforts to avoid pre-natal risk exposure based on heightened perceptions of threat may do more harm than the perceived threat itself. PMID:21480770

  11. The 2006 William Feinberg lecture: shifting the paradigm from stroke to global vascular risk estimation.

    PubMed

    Sacco, Ralph L

    2007-06-01

    By the year 2010, it is estimated that 18.1 million people worldwide will die annually because of cardiovascular diseases and stroke. "Global vascular risk" more broadly includes the multiple overlapping disease silos of stroke, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, and vascular death. Estimation of global vascular risk requires consideration of a variety of variables including demographics, environmental behaviors, and risk factors. Data from multiple studies suggest continuous linear relationships between the physiological vascular risk modulators of blood pressure, lipids, and blood glucose rather than treating these conditions as categorical risk factors. Constellations of risk factors may be more relevant than individual categorical components. Exciting work with novel risk factors may also have predictive value in estimates of global vascular risk. Advances in imaging have led to the measurement of subclinical conditions such as carotid intima-media thickness and subclinical brain conditions such as white matter hyperintensities and silent infarcts. These subclinical measurements may be intermediate stages in the transition from asymptomatic to symptomatic vascular events, appear to be associated with the fundamental vascular risk factors, and represent opportunities to more precisely quantitate disease progression. The expansion of studies in molecular epidemiology and detection of genetic markers underlying vascular risks also promises to extend our precision of global vascular risk estimation. Global vascular risk estimation will require quantitative methods that bundle these multi-dimensional data into more precise estimates of future risk. The power of genetic information coupled with data on demographics, risk-inducing behaviors, vascular risk modulators, biomarkers, and measures of subclinical conditions should provide the most realistic approximation of an individual's future global vascular risk. The ultimate public health benefit

  12. Methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl: health risk uncertainties and research directions.

    PubMed Central

    Davis, J M

    1998-01-01

    With the way cleared for increased use of the fuel additive methylcyclopentadienyl manganese tricarbonyl (MMT) in the United States, the issue of possible public health impacts associated with this additive has gained greater attention. In assessing potential health risks of particulate Mn emitted from the combustion of MMT in gasoline, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency not only considered the qualitative types of toxic effects associated with inhaled Mn, but conducted extensive exposure-response analyses using various statistical approaches and also estimated population exposure distributions of particulate Mn based on data from an exposure study conducted in California when MMT was used in leaded gasoline. Because of limitations in available data and the need to make several assumptions and extrapolations, the resulting risk characterization had inherent uncertainties that made it impossible to estimate health risks in a definitive or quantitative manner. To support an improved health risk characterization, further investigation is needed in the areas of health effects, emission characterization, and exposure analysis. PMID:9539013

  13. Kalman Filter Constraint Tuning for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2005-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. Recently published work has shown a new method for incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter, which has been shown to generally improve the filter s estimation accuracy. However, the incorporation of inequality constraints poses some risk to the estimation accuracy as the Kalman filter is theoretically optimal. This paper proposes a way to tune the filter constraints so that the state estimates follow the unconstrained (theoretically optimal) filter when the confidence in the unconstrained filter is high. When confidence in the unconstrained filter is not so high, then we use our heuristic knowledge to constrain the state estimates. The confidence measure is based on the agreement of measurement residuals with their theoretical values. The algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate engine health.

  14. Estimated radiation risks associated with endodontic radiography.

    PubMed

    Danforth, R A; Torabinejad, M

    1990-02-01

    Endodontic patients are sometimes concerned about the risks of tumors or cataracts from radiation exposure during root canal therapy. By using established dose and risk information, we calculated the extent of these risks. The chance of getting leukemia from an endodontic x-ray survey using 90 kVp was found to be 1 in 7.69 million, the same as the risk of dying from cancer from smoking 0.94 cigarettes or from an auto accident when driving 3.7 km. Risk of thyroid gland neoplasia was 1 in 667,000 (smoking 11.6 cigarettes, driving 45 km) and risk of salivary gland neoplasia 1 in 1.35 million (smoking 5.4 cigarettes, driving 21.1 km). Use of 70 kVp radiography reduced these risks only slightly. To receive the threshold dose to eyes to produce cataract changes, a patient would have to undergo 10,900 endodontic surveys. PMID:2390963

  15. Migration, refugees, and health risks.

    PubMed

    Carballo, M; Nerukar, A

    2001-01-01

    Migration both voluntary and forced is increasing all over the world. People are moving in larger numbers faster and further than at any other time in history. This is happening at a time when many countries are ill-prepared to deal with a changing demography and when policies and attitudes to population movement and immigration are hardening. The health implications of this are many, and, in some cases, illness and death rates associated with migration are exacerbated by a lack of policies needed to make migration a healthy and socially productive process. From a public health point of view, this is having and will continue to have serious ramifications for the people that move, the family they leave behind, and the communities that host the newcomers. PMID:11485671

  16. Relating space radiation environments to risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis, S.B.

    1991-10-01

    This lecture will provide a bridge from the physical energy or LET spectra as might be calculated in an organ to the risk of carcinogenesis, a particular concern for extended missions to the moon or beyond to Mars. Topics covered will include (1) LET spectra expected from galactic cosmic rays, (2) probabilities that individual cell nuclei in the body will be hit by heavy galactic cosmic ray particles, (3) the conventional methods of calculating risks from a mixed environment of high and low LET radiation, (4) an alternate method which provides certain advantages using fluence-related risk coefficients (risk cross sections), and (5) directions for future research and development of these ideas.

  17. Space Radiation and Risks to Human Health

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huff, Janice L.

    2014-01-01

    The radiation environment in space poses significant challenges to human health and is a major concern for long duration manned space missions. Outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere, astronauts are exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays, whose physical characteristics are distinct from terrestrial sources of radiation such as x-rays and gamma-rays. Galactic cosmic rays consist of high energy and high mass nuclei as well as high energy protons; they impart unique biological damage as they traverse through tissue with impacts on human health that are largely unknown. The major health issues of concern are the risks of radiation carcinogenesis, acute and late decrements to the central nervous system, degenerative tissue effects such as cardiovascular disease, as well as possible acute radiation syndromes due to an unshielded exposure to a large solar particle event. The NASA Human Research Program's Space Radiation Program Element is focused on characterization and mitigation of these space radiation health risks along with understanding these risks in context of the other biological stressors found in the space environment. In this overview, we will provide a description of these health risks and the Element's research strategies to understand and mitigate these risks.

  18. Assessment of health risks of policies

    SciTech Connect

    Ádám, Balázs; Molnár, Ágnes; Ádány, Róza; Bianchi, Fabrizio; Bitenc, Katarina; Chereches, Razvan; Cori, Liliana; Fehr, Rainer; Kobza, Joanna; Kollarova, Jana; and others

    2014-09-15

    The assessment of health risks of policies is an inevitable, although challenging prerequisite for the inclusion of health considerations in political decision making. The aim of our project was to develop a so far missing methodological guide for the assessment of the complex impact structure of policies. The guide was developed in a consensual way based on experiences gathered during the assessment of specific national policies selected by the partners of an EU project. Methodological considerations were discussed and summarized in workshops and pilot tested on the EU Health Strategy for finalization. The combined tool, which includes a textual guidance and a checklist, follows the top-down approach, that is, it guides the analysis of causal chains from the policy through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The tool discusses the most important practical issues of assessment by impact level. It emphasises the transparent identification and prioritisation of factors, the consideration of the feasibility of exposure and outcome assessment with special focus on quantification. The developed guide provides useful methodological instructions for the comprehensive assessment of health risks of policies that can be effectively used in the health impact assessment of policy proposals. - Highlights: • Methodological guide for the assessment of health risks of policies is introduced. • The tool is developed based on the experiences from several case studies. • The combined tool consists of a textual guidance and a checklist. • The top-down approach is followed through the levels of the full impact chain. • The guide provides assistance for the health impact assessment of policy proposals.

  19. Child Social Exclusion Risk and Child Health Outcomes in Australia

    PubMed Central

    Mohanty, Itismita; Edvardsson, Martin; Abello, Annie; Eldridge, Deanna

    2016-01-01

    Introduction This paper studies the relationship between the risk of child social exclusion, as measured by the Child Social Exclusion (CSE) index and its individual domains, and child health outcomes at the small area level in Australia. The CSE index is Australia’s only national small-area index of the risk of child social exclusion. It includes five domains that capture different components of social exclusion: socio-economic background, education, connectedness, housing and health services. Methods The paper used data from the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling (NATSEM), University of Canberra for the CSE Index and its domains and two key Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) data sources for the health outcome measures: the National Hospital Morbidity Database and the National Mortality Database. Results The results show positive associations between rates of both of the negative health outcomes: potentially preventable hospitalisations (PPH) and avoidable deaths, and the overall risk of child social exclusion as well as with the index domains. This analysis at the small-area level can be used to identify and study areas with unexpectedly good or bad health outcomes relative to their estimated risk of child social exclusion. We show that children’s health outcomes are worse in remote parts of Australia than what would be expected solely based on the CSE index. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that developing composite indices of the risk of child social exclusion can provide valuable guidance for local interventions and programs aimed at improving children’s health outcomes. They also indicate the importance of taking a small-area approach when conducting geographic modelling of disadvantage. PMID:27152596

  20. A 21st century roadmap for human health risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Pastoor, Timothy P; Bachman, Ammie N; Bell, David R; Cohen, Samuel M; Dellarco, Michael; Dewhurst, Ian C; Doe, John E; Doerrer, Nancy G; Embry, Michelle R; Hines, Ronald N; Moretto, Angelo; Phillips, Richard D; Rowlands, J Craig; Tanir, Jennifer Y; Wolf, Douglas C; Boobis, Alan R

    2014-08-01

    The Health and Environmental Sciences Institute (HESI)-coordinated Risk Assessment in the 21st Century (RISK21) project was initiated to develop a scientific, transparent, and efficient approach to the evolving world of human health risk assessment, and involved over 120 participants from 12 countries, 15 government institutions, 20 universities, 2 non-governmental organizations, and 12 corporations. This paper provides a brief overview of the tiered RISK21 framework called the roadmap and risk visualization matrix, and articulates the core principles derived by RISK21 participants that guided its development. Subsequent papers describe the roadmap and matrix in greater detail. RISK21 principles include focusing on problem formulation, utilizing existing information, starting with exposure assessment (rather than toxicity), and using a tiered process for data development. Bringing estimates of exposure and toxicity together on a two-dimensional matrix provides a clear rendition of human safety and risk. The value of the roadmap is its capacity to chronicle the stepwise acquisition of scientific information and display it in a clear and concise fashion. Furthermore, the tiered approach and transparent display of information will contribute to greater efficiencies by calling for data only as needed (enough precision to make a decision), thus conserving animals and other resources. PMID:25070413

  1. Synthetic-fuel plants: potential tumor risks to public health.

    PubMed

    Moskowitz, P D; Morris, S C; Fischer, H; Thode, H C; Hamilton, L D

    1985-09-01

    This article quantifies potential public health risks from tumor-producing pollutants emitted from two synthetic-fuel plants (direct liquefaction--Exxon Donor Solvent: and indirect liquefaction--Lurgi Fischer-Tropsch) located at a representative site in the eastern United States. In these analyses gaseous and aqueous waste streams were characterized; exposures via inhalation, terrestrial and aquatic food chains, and drinking water supplies were modeled. Analysis suggested that emissions of "polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons," "aromatic amines," "neutral N, O, S heterocyclics," "nitriles," and "other trace elements" pose the largest quantifiable risks to public health. Data and analysis for these pollutant categories should be refined to more accurately match compound-specific estimated exposure levels with tumorigenic potency estimates. Before these results are used for regulatory purposes, more detailed analysis for selected pollutant classes are needed, and more sophisticated aquatic exposure models must be developed. Also, differences in geographic scales among the environmental transport models used need to be rectified. PMID:3843682

  2. Prioritizing environmental health risks in the UAE.

    PubMed

    Willis, Henry H; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald; Shih, Regina A; Geschwind, Sandra; Olmstead, Sarah; Hu, Jianhui; Curtright, Aimee E; Cecchine, Gary; Moore, Melinda

    2010-12-01

    This article presents the results of a comparative environmental risk-ranking exercise that was conducted in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to inform a strategic planning process led by the Environment Agency-Abu Dhabi (EAD). It represents the first national-level application of a deliberative method for comparative risk ranking first published in this journal. The deliberative method involves a five-stage process that includes quantitative risk assessment by experts and deliberations by groups of stakeholders. The project reported in this article considered 14 categories of environmental risks to health identified through discussions with EAD staff: ambient and indoor air pollution; drinking water contamination; coastal water pollution; soil and groundwater contamination; contamination of fruits, vegetables, and seafood; ambient noise; stratospheric ozone depletion; electromagnetic fields from power lines; health impacts from climate change; and exposure to hazardous substances in industrial, construction, and agricultural work environments. Results from workshops involving 73 stakeholders who met in five separate groups to rank these risks individually and collaboratively indicated strong consensus that outdoor and indoor air pollution are the highest priorities in the UAE. Each of the five groups rated these as being among the highest risks. All groups rated soil and groundwater contamination as being among the lowest risks. In surveys administered after the ranking exercises, participants indicated that the results of the process represented their concerns and approved of using the ranking results to inform policy decisions. The results ultimately shaped a strategic plan that is now being implemented. PMID:20723144

  3. Parametric Estimation in a Recurrent Competing Risks Model

    PubMed Central

    Peña, Edsel A.

    2014-01-01

    A resource-efficient approach to making inferences about the distributional properties of the failure times in a competing risks setting is presented. Efficiency is gained by observing recurrences of the competing risks over a random monitoring period. The resulting model is called the recurrent competing risks model (RCRM) and is coupled with two repair strategies whenever the system fails. Maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the marginal distribution functions associated with each of the competing risks and also of the system lifetime distribution function are presented. Estimators are derived under perfect and partial repair strategies. Consistency and asymptotic properties of the estimators are obtained. The estimation methods are applied to a data set of failures for cars under warranty. Simulation studies are used to ascertain the small sample properties and the efficiency gains of the resulting estimators. PMID:25346751

  4. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quillian, Lincoln; Pager, Devah

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic…

  5. Evaluating Potential Health Risks in Relocatable Classrooms.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katchen, Mark; LaPierre, Adrienne; Charlin, Cary; Brucker, Barry; Ferguson, Paul

    2001-01-01

    Only limited data exist describing potential exposures to chemical and biological agents when using portable classrooms or outlining how to assess and reduce associated health risks. Evaluating indoor air quality involves examining ventilating rates, volatile organic compounds, and microbiologicals. Open communication among key stakeholders is…

  6. Health Risk Assessment for Cyanobacterial Toxins in Seafood

    PubMed Central

    Mulvenna, Vanora; Dale, Katie; Priestly, Brian; Mueller, Utz; Humpage, Andrew; Shaw, Glen; Allinson, Graeme; Falconer, Ian

    2012-01-01

    Cyanobacteria (blue-green algae) are abundant in fresh, brackish and marine waters worldwide. When toxins produced by cyanobacteria are present in the aquatic environment, seafood harvested from these waters may present a health hazard to consumers. Toxicity hazards from seafood have been internationally recognised when the source is from marine algae (dinoflagellates and diatoms), but to date few risk assessments for cyanobacterial toxins in seafood have been presented. This paper estimates risk from seafood contaminated by cyanobacterial toxins, and provides guidelines for safe human consumption. PMID:22690165

  7. Exploring perceptions of cancer risk, neighborhood environmental risks, and health behaviors of blacks.

    PubMed

    Rice, LaShanta J; Brandt, Heather M; Hardin, James W; Ingram, Lucy Annang; Wilson, Sacoby M

    2015-06-01

    Cancer risk perceptions and cancer worry are shaped by race/ethnicity, and social, economic, and environmental factors, which in turn shape health decision-making. A paucity of studies has explored risk perceptions and worry in metropolitan areas with disparate environmental conditions and cancer outcomes. This study examined perceptions of cancer risk, neighborhood environmental health risks, and risk-reducing health behaviors among Blacks. A 59-item survey was administered to respondents in Metropolitan Charleston, South Carolina from March to September 2013. A convenience sample of males and females was recruited at local venues and community events. Descriptive statistics, bivariate analyses (Chi square tests), and logistic regression models were estimated using SAS 9.3 software. Respondents (N = 405) were 100% Black, 81% female (n = 323), and ranged from 18 to 87 years of age (M = 49.55, SD = 15.27). Most respondents reported lower perceptions of cancer risk (37%) and equated their cancer beliefs to direct or indirect (i.e. personal or family) experiences. Low perceived cancer risk (absolute risk) was significantly associated (p < .05) with non-alcohol consumption, having a colon cancer screening test, being female, and being age 25-44 or 45-64. Cancer worry was significantly associated (p < .05) with being a current smoker, having a "fair" diet, non-alcohol consumption, and having any colon cancer screening test. Perceived cancer risk is an important indicator of health behaviors among Blacks. Direct or indirect experiences with cancer and/or the environment and awareness of family history of cancer may explain cancer risk perceptions. PMID:25315713

  8. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization.

    PubMed

    Quillian, Lincoln; Pager, Devah

    2010-03-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations (Dominitz and Manski 2002). Using zip code identifiers, we then match these survey data to local area characteristics from the census. The results show that: (1) the risk of criminal victimization is significantly overestimated relative to actual rates of victimization or other negative events; (2) neighborhood racial composition is strongly associated with perceived risk of victimization, whereas actual victimization risk is driven by nonracial neighborhood characteristics; and (3) white respondents appear more strongly affected by racial composition than nonwhites in forming their estimates of risk. We argue these results support a model of stereotype amplification in the formation of risk estimates. Implications for persistent racial inequality are considered. PMID:20686631

  9. Estimating Risk: Stereotype Amplification and the Perceived Risk of Criminal Victimization

    PubMed Central

    QUILLIAN, LINCOLN; PAGER, DEVAH

    2010-01-01

    This paper considers the process by which individuals estimate the risk of adverse events, with particular attention to the social context in which risk estimates are formed. We compare subjective probability estimates of crime victimization to actual victimization experiences among respondents from the 1994 to 2002 waves of the Survey of Economic Expectations (Dominitz and Manski 2002). Using zip code identifiers, we then match these survey data to local area characteristics from the census. The results show that: (1) the risk of criminal victimization is significantly overestimated relative to actual rates of victimization or other negative events; (2) neighborhood racial composition is strongly associated with perceived risk of victimization, whereas actual victimization risk is driven by nonracial neighborhood characteristics; and (3) white respondents appear more strongly affected by racial composition than nonwhites in forming their estimates of risk. We argue these results support a model of stereotype amplification in the formation of risk estimates. Implications for persistent racial inequality are considered. PMID:20686631

  10. [Estimation of the radiation risk of determined effects of human exposure in space].

    PubMed

    Petrov, V M; Vasina, Iu I; Vlasov, A G; Shurshakov, V A

    2001-01-01

    Subject of the paper is possibility to estimate radiation risk of determined consequences of exposure to solar space rays as a probability of violation of established dose limits. Analysis of specifies of spacecrew exposure to solar space rays in a long-term, particularly interplanetary mission suggests that immediate introduction of the principle in the radiation health policy can result in serious errors, mainly exaggeration, in determination of radiation risk. Proposed are approaches to radiation risk estimation with consideration of the specific of human exposure in space. PMID:11915752

  11. Emerging Radiation Health-Risk Mitigation Technologies

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, J.W.; Cucinotta, F.A.; Schimmerling, W.

    2004-02-04

    Past space missions beyond the confines of the Earth's protective magnetic field have been of short duration and protection from the effects of solar particle events was of primary concern. The extension of operational infrastructure beyond low-Earth orbit to enable routine access to more interesting regions of space will require protection from the hazards of the accumulated exposures of Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCR). There are significant challenges in providing protection from the long-duration exposure to GCR: the human risks to the exposures are highly uncertain and safety requirements places unreasonable demands in supplying sufficient shielding materials in the design. A vigorous approach to future radiation health-risk mitigation requires a triage of techniques (using biological and technical factors) and reduction of the uncertainty in radiation risk models. The present paper discusses the triage of factors for risk mitigation with associated materials issues and engineering design methods.

  12. Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

    SciTech Connect

    Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

    1994-05-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

  13. Thinking Concretely Increases the Perceived Likelihood of Risks: The Effect of Construal Level on Risk Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lermer, Eva; Streicher, Bernhard; Sachs, Rainer; Raue, Martina; Frey, Dieter

    2016-03-01

    Recent findings on construal level theory (CLT) suggest that abstract thinking leads to a lower estimated probability of an event occurring compared to concrete thinking. We applied this idea to the risk context and explored the influence of construal level (CL) on the overestimation of small and underestimation of large probabilities for risk estimates concerning a vague target person (Study 1 and Study 3) and personal risk estimates (Study 2). We were specifically interested in whether the often-found overestimation of small probabilities could be reduced with abstract thinking, and the often-found underestimation of large probabilities was reduced with concrete thinking. The results showed that CL influenced risk estimates. In particular, a concrete mindset led to higher risk estimates compared to an abstract mindset for several adverse events, including events with small and large probabilities. This suggests that CL manipulation can indeed be used for improving the accuracy of lay people's estimates of small and large probabilities. Moreover, the results suggest that professional risk managers' risk estimates of common events (thus with a relatively high probability) could be improved by adopting a concrete mindset. However, the abstract manipulation did not lead managers to estimate extremely unlikely events more accurately. Potential reasons for different CL manipulation effects on risk estimates' accuracy between lay people and risk managers are discussed. PMID:26111548

  14. Assessing the risk of Legionnaires' disease: the inhalation exposure model and the estimated risk in residential bathrooms.

    PubMed

    Azuma, Kenichi; Uchiyama, Iwao; Okumura, Jiro

    2013-02-01

    Legionella are widely found in the built environment. Patients with Legionnaires' disease have been increasing in Japan; however, health risks from Legionella bacteria in the environment are not appropriately assessed. We performed a quantitative health risk assessment modeled on residential bathrooms in the Adachi outbreak area and estimated risk levels. The estimated risks in the Adachi outbreak approximately corresponded to the risk levels exponentially extrapolated into lower levels on the basis of infection and mortality rates calculated from actual outbreaks, suggesting that the model of Legionnaires' disease in residential bathrooms was adequate to predict disease risk for the evaluated outbreaks. Based on this model, the infection and mortality risk levels per year in 10 CFU/100 ml (100 CFU/L) of the Japanese water quality guideline value were approximately 10(-2) and 10(-5), respectively. However, acceptable risk levels of infection and mortality from Legionnaires' disease should be adjusted to approximately 10(-4) and 10(-7), respectively, per year. Therefore, a reference value of 0.1 CFU/100 ml (1 CFU/L) as a water quality guideline for Legionella bacteria is recommended. This value is occasionally less than the actual detection limit. Legionella levels in water system should be maintained as low as reasonably achievable (<1 CFU/L). PMID:23195792

  15. The risks of innovation in health care.

    PubMed

    Enzmann, Dieter R

    2015-04-01

    Innovation in health care creates risks that are unevenly distributed. An evolutionary analogy using species to represent business models helps categorize innovation experiments and their risks. This classification reveals two qualitative categories: early and late diversification experiments. Early diversification has prolific innovations with high risk because they encounter a "decimation" stage, during which most experiments disappear. Participants face high risk. The few decimation survivors can be sustaining or disruptive according to Christensen's criteria. Survivors enter late diversification, during which they again expand, but within a design range limited to variations of the previous surviving designs. Late diversifications carry lower risk. The exception is when disruptive survivors "diversify," which amplifies their disruption. Health care and radiology will experience both early and late diversifications, often simultaneously. Although oversimplifying Christensen's concepts, early diversifications are likely to deliver disruptive innovation, whereas late diversifications tend to produce sustaining innovations. Current health care consolidation is a manifestation of late diversification. Early diversifications will appear outside traditional care models and physical health care sites, as well as with new science such as molecular diagnostics. They warrant attention because decimation survivors will present both disruptive and sustaining opportunities to radiology. Radiology must participate in late diversification by incorporating sustaining innovations to its value chain. Given the likelihood of disruptive survivors, radiology should seriously consider disrupting itself rather than waiting for others to do so. Disruption entails significant modifications of its value chain, hence, its business model, for which lessons may become available from the pharmaceutical industry's current simultaneous experience with early and late diversifications. PMID

  16. Frequency and Prioritization of Patient Health Risks from a Structured Health Risk Assessment

    PubMed Central

    Phillips, Siobhan M.; Glasgow, Russell E.; Bello, Ghalib; Ory, Marcia G.; Glenn, Beth A.; Sheinfeld-Gorin, Sherri N.; Sabo, Roy T.; Heurtin-Roberts, Suzanne; Johnson, Sallie Beth; Krist, Alex H.

    2014-01-01

    PURPOSE To describe the frequency and patient-reported readiness to change, desire to discuss, and perceived importance of 13 health risk factors in a diverse range of primary care practices. METHODS Patients (n = 1,707) in 9 primary care practices in the My Own Health Report (MOHR) trial reported general, behavioral, and psychosocial risk factors (body mass index [BMI], health status, diet, physical activity, sleep, drug use, stress, anxiety or worry, and depression). We classified responses as “at risk” or “healthy” for each factor, and patients indicated their readiness to change and/or desire to discuss identified risk factors with providers. Patients also selected 1 of the factors they were ready to change as most important. We then calculated frequencies within and across these factors and examined variation by patient characteristics and across practices. RESULTS On average, patients had 5.8 (SD = 2.12; range, 0–13) unhealthy behaviors and mental health risk factors. About 55% of patients had more than 6 risk factors. On average, patients wanted to change 1.2 and discuss 0.7 risks. The most common risks were inadequate fruit/vegetable consumption (84.5%) and overweight/obesity (79.6%). Patients were most ready to change BMI (33.3%) and depression (30.7%), and most wanted to discuss depression (41.9%) and anxiety or worry (35.2%). Overall, patients rated health status as most important. CONCLUSIONS Implementing routine comprehensive health risk assessments in primary care will likely identify a high number of behavioral and psychosocial health risks. By soliciting patient priorities, providers and patients can better manage counseling and behavior change. PMID:25384812

  17. Communicating Health Risks under Pressure: Homeland Security Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Garrahan, K.G.; Collie, S.L.

    2006-07-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) Office of Research and Development (ORD) Threat and Consequence Assessment Division (TCAD) within the National Homeland Security Research Center (NHSRC) has developed a tool for rapid communication of health risks and likelihood of exposure in preparation for terrorist incidents. The Emergency Consequence Assessment Tool (ECAT) is a secure web-based tool designed to make risk assessment and consequence management faster and easier for high priority terrorist threat scenarios. ECAT has been designed to function as 'defensive play-book' for health advisors, first responders, and decision-makers by presenting a series of evaluation templates for priority scenarios that can be modified for site-specific applications. Perhaps most importantly, the risk communication aspect is considered prior to an actual release event, so that management or legal advisors can concur on general risk communication content in preparation for press releases that can be anticipated in case of an actual emergency. ECAT serves as a one-stop source of information for retrieving toxicological properties for agents of concern, estimating exposure to these agents, characterizing health risks, and determining what actions need to be undertaken to mitigate the risks. ECAT has the capability to be used at a command post where inputs can be checked and communicated while the response continues in real time. This front-end planning is intended to fill the gap most commonly identified during tabletop exercises: a need for concise, timely, and informative risk communication to all parties. Training and customization of existing chemical and biological release scenarios with modeling of exposure to air and water, along with custom risk communication 'messages' intended for public, press, shareholders, and other partners enable more effective communication during times of crisis. For DOE, the ECAT could serve as a prototype that would be amenable to

  18. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: Selected 2011 National Health Risk Behaviors and Health Outcomes by Sex

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors priority health risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. The national YRBS is conducted every two years during the spring semester and provides data representative of 9th through 12th grade…

  19. Quantitative estimation in Health Impact Assessment: Opportunities and challenges

    SciTech Connect

    Bhatia, Rajiv; Seto, Edmund

    2011-04-15

    Health Impact Assessment (HIA) considers multiple effects on health of policies, programs, plans and projects and thus requires the use of diverse analytic tools and sources of evidence. Quantitative estimation has desirable properties for the purpose of HIA but adequate tools for quantification exist currently for a limited number of health impacts and decision settings; furthermore, quantitative estimation generates thorny questions about the precision of estimates and the validity of methodological assumptions. In the United States, HIA has only recently emerged as an independent practice apart from integrated EIA, and this article aims to synthesize the experience with quantitative health effects estimation within that practice. We use examples identified through a scan of available identified instances of quantitative estimation in the U.S. practice experience to illustrate methods applied in different policy settings along with their strengths and limitations. We then discuss opportunity areas and practical considerations for the use of quantitative estimation in HIA.

  20. Environmental and health risk studies at HHWCFs

    SciTech Connect

    Kehoe, C.

    1995-09-01

    Sanitary Fill Company is proposing to expand San Francisco`s household hazardous waste facility. This paper describes our proposal and discusses the environmental review and public involvement processes that are now required. Planning this expansion has been long and expensive. To my knowledge we are among the first programs to conduct a detailed study of the potential health risks associated with household facilities. I will present a summary of our planning process and compare the process to the outcome.

  1. Health risk associated with airborne asbestos.

    PubMed

    Pawełczyk, Adam; Božek, František

    2015-07-01

    The following paper presents an assessment of health risks associated with air polluted with respirable asbestos fibers in towns of southwest Poland. The aim of the work was to determine whether or not any prevention measures are necessary in order to reduce the level of exposure to the pollutant. The risk assessment was carried out based on the air analyses and the latest asbestos toxicity data published by the Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA), USA and Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment (OEHHA). It was found that in some sites, the concentration of the asbestos fibers exceeded the acceptable levels, which should be a reason of special concern. The highest concentration of asbestos was found in town centers during the rush hours. In three spots, the calculated maximum health risk exceeded 1E-04 which is considered too high according to the adopted standards. So far, it has not yet been possible to find a reasonable method of ensuring the hazard reduction. PMID:26070993

  2. Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Women's Health

    MedlinePlus

    ... Spectrum Disorders (FASDs) Impaired Driving Fact Sheets - Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Women's Health Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Women’s Health Although men ...

  3. Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Men's Health

    MedlinePlus

    ... Spectrum Disorders (FASDs) Impaired Driving Fact Sheets - Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Men's Health Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Excessive Alcohol Use and Risks to Men's Health Men are ...

  4. The economic costs of radiation-induced health effects: Estimation and simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Nieves, L.A.; Tawil, J.J.

    1988-08-01

    This effort improves the quantitative information available for use in evaluating actions that alter health risks due to population exposure to ionizing radiation. To project the potential future costs of changes in health effects risks, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) constructed a probabilistic computer model, Health Effects Costs Model (HECOM), which utilizes the health effect incidence estimates from accident consequences models to calculate the discounted sum of the economic costs associated with population exposure to ionizing radiation. Application of HECOM to value-impact and environmental impact analyses should greatly increase the quality of the information available for regulatory decision making. Three major types of health effects present risks for any population sustaining a significant radiation exposure: acute radiation injuries (and fatalities), latent cancers, and impairments due to genetic effects. The literature pertaining to both incidence and treatment of these health effects was reviewed by PNL and provided the basis for developing economic cost estimates. The economic costs of health effects estimated by HECOM represent both the value of resources consumed in diagnosing, treating, and caring for the patient and the value of goods not produced because of illness or premature death due to the health effect. Additional costs to society, such as pain and suffering, are not included in the PNL economic cost measures since they do not divert resources from other uses, are difficult to quantify, and do not have a value observable in the marketplace. 83 refs., 3 figs., 19 tabs.

  5. [Application of spatial relative risk estimation in communicable disease risk evaluation].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yewu; Guo, Qing; Wang, Xiaofeng; Yu, Meng; Su, Xuemei; Dong, Yan; Zhang, Chunxi

    2015-05-01

    This paper summaries the application of adaptive kernel density algorithm in the spatial relative risk estimation of communicable diseases by using the reported data of infectious diarrhea (other than cholera, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in Ludian county and surrounding area in Yunnan province in 2013. Statistically significant fluctuations in an estimated risk function were identified through the use of asymptotic tolerance contours, and finally these data were visualized though disease mapping. The results of spatial relative risk estimation and disease mapping showed that high risk areas were in southeastern Shaoyang next to Ludian. Therefore, the spatial relative risk estimation of disease by using adaptive kernel density algorithm and disease mapping technique is a powerful method in identifying high risk population and areas. PMID:26080648

  6. Do the Health Benefits of Cycling Outweigh the Risks?

    PubMed Central

    de Hartog, Jeroen Johan; Boogaard, Hanna; Nijland, Hans; Hoek, Gerard

    2010-01-01

    Background Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions, decreased greenhouse gas emissions, and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. Objective We describe whether the health benefits from the increased physical activity of a modal shift for urban commutes outweigh the health risks. Data sources and extraction We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. Data synthesis We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We have expressed mortality impacts in life-years gained or lost, using life table calculations. For individuals who shift from car to bicycle, we estimated that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3–14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8–40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5–9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents. Conclusions On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport. PMID:20587380

  7. Improvement in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Electronic Health Records.

    PubMed

    Pike, Mindy M; Decker, Paul A; Larson, Nicholas B; St Sauver, Jennifer L; Takahashi, Paul Y; Roger, Véronique L; Rocca, Walter A; Miller, Virginia M; Olson, Janet E; Pathak, Jyotishman; Bielinski, Suzette J

    2016-06-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the QRISKII, an electronic health data-based risk score, to the Framingham Risk Score (FRS) and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) score. Risk estimates were calculated for a cohort of 8783 patients, and the patients were followed up from November 29, 2012, through June 1, 2015, for a cardiovascular disease (CVD) event. During follow-up, 246 men and 247 women had a CVD event. Cohen's kappa statistic for the comparison of the QRISKII and FRS was 0.22 for men and 0.23 for women, with the QRISKII classifying more patients in the higher-risk groups. The QRISKII and ASCVD were more similar with kappa statistics of 0.49 for men and 0.51 for women. The QRISKII shows increased discrimination with area under the curve (AUC) statistics of 0.65 and 0.71, respectively, compared to the FRS (0.59 and 0.66) and ASCVD (0.63 and 0.69). These results demonstrate that incorporating additional data from the electronic health record (EHR) may improve CVD risk stratification. PMID:26960568

  8. Estimating real change in health care.

    PubMed

    Rosenberg, Linda

    2014-04-01

    The technology revolution has accelerated the pace of change and increased our tolerance for experimentation. The National Council for Behavioral Health owes it to those served by our member organizations to keep our eye on the future. To quote leadership guru Peter Drucker, "The greatest danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence. It is to act with yesterday's logic." Studies in this edition of JBHS&R address the capacity of different components of the current behavioral health workforce and examine training methods successful in preparing the workforce with the new skills and abilities which will be crucial in 2014 and beyond. PMID:24510643

  9. On cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution.

    PubMed Central

    Törnqvist, M; Ehrenberg, L

    1994-01-01

    The usefulness of data from various sources for a cancer risk estimation of urban air pollution is discussed. Considering the irreversibility of initiations, a multiplicative model is preferred for solid tumors. As has been concluded for exposure to ionizing radiation, the multiplicative model, in comparison with the additive model, predicts a relatively larger number of cases at high ages, with enhanced underestimation of risks by short follow-up times in disease-epidemiological studies. For related reasons, the extrapolation of risk from animal tests on the basis of daily absorbed dose per kilogram body weight or per square meter surface area without considering differences in life span may lead to an underestimation, and agreements with epidemiologically determined values may be fortuitous. Considering these possibilities, the most likely lifetime risks of cancer death at the average exposure levels in Sweden were estimated for certain pollution fractions or indicator compounds in urban air. The risks amount to approximately 50 deaths per 100,000 for inhaled particulate organic material (POM), with a contribution from ingested POM about three times larger, and alkenes, and butadiene cause 20 deaths, respectively, per 100,000 individuals. Also, benzene and formaldehyde are expected to be associated with considerable risk increments. Comparative potency methods were applied for POM and alkenes. Due to incompleteness of the list of compounds considered and the uncertainties of the above estimates, the total risk calculation from urban air has not been attempted here. PMID:7821292

  10. Managing risk: clinical decision-making in mental health services.

    PubMed

    Muir-Cochrane, Eimear; Gerace, Adam; Mosel, Krista; O'Kane, Debra; Barkway, Patricia; Curren, David; Oster, Candice

    2011-01-01

    Risk assessment and management is a major component of contemporary mental health practice. Risk assessment in health care exists within contemporary perspectives of management and risk aversive practices in health care. This has led to much discussion about the best approach to assessing possible risks posed by people with mental health problems. In addition, researchers and commentators have expressed concern that clinical practice is being dominated by managerial models of risk management at the expense of meeting the patient's health and social care needs. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the risk assessment practices of a multidisciplinary mental health service. Findings indicate that mental health professionals draw on both managerial and therapeutic approaches to risk management, integrating these approaches into their clinical practice. Rather than being dominated by managerial concerns regarding risk, the participants demonstrate professional autonomy and concern for the needs of their clients. PMID:22077745

  11. Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cucinotta, F. A.; Schimmerling, W.; Wilson, J. W.; Peterson, L. E.; Saganti, P.; Dicelli, J. F.

    2002-01-01

    The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

  12. Refining estimates of public health spending as measured in national health expenditure accounts: the Canadian experience.

    PubMed

    Ballinger, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    The recent focus on public health stemming from, among other things, severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian flu has created an imperative to refine health-spending estimates in the Canadian Health Accounts. This article presents the Canadian experience in attempting to address the challenges associated with developing the needed taxonomies for systematically capturing, measuring, and analyzing the national investment in the Canadian public health system. The first phase of this process was completed in 2005, which was a 2-year project to estimate public health spending based on a more classic definition by removing the administration component of the previously combined public health and administration category. Comparing the refined public health estimate with recent data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development still positions Canada with the highest share of total health expenditure devoted to public health than any other country reporting. The article also provides an analysis of the comparability of public health estimates across jurisdictions within Canada as well as a discussion of the recommendations for ongoing improvement of public health spending estimates. The Canadian Institute for Health Information is an independent, not-for-profit organization that provides Canadians with essential statistics and analysis on the performance of the Canadian health system, the delivery of healthcare, and the health status of Canadians. The Canadian Institute for Health Information administers more than 20 databases and registries, including Canada's Health Accounts, which tracks historically 40 categories of health spending by 5 sources of finance for 13 provincial and territorial jurisdictions. Until 2005, expenditure on public health services in the Canadian Health Accounts included measures to prevent the spread of communicable disease, food and drug safety, health inspections, health promotion, community mental health programs, public

  13. Risk adjusting community rated health plan premiums: a survey of risk assessment literature and policy applications.

    PubMed

    Giacomini, M; Luft, H S; Robinson, J C

    1995-01-01

    This paper surveys recent health care reform debates and empirical evidence regarding the potential role for risk adjusters in addressing the problem of competitive risk segmentation under capitated financing. We discuss features of health plan markets affecting risk selection, methodological considerations in measuring it, and alternative approaches to financial correction for risk differentials. The appropriate approach to assessing risk differences between health plans depends upon the nature of market risk selection allowed under a given reform scenario. Because per capita costs depend on a health plan's population risk, efficiency, and quality of service, risk adjustment will most strongly promote efficiency in environments with commensurately strong incentives for quality care. PMID:7639879

  14. Population-Attributable Risk Estimates for Risk Factors Associated with Campylobacter Infection, Australia

    PubMed Central

    Schluter, Philip J.; Wilson, Andrew J.; Kirk, Martyn D.; Hall, Gillian; Unicomb, Leanne

    2008-01-01

    In 2001–2002, a multicenter, prospective case-control study involving 1,714 participants >5 years of age was conducted in Australia to identify risk factors for Campylobacter infection. Adjusted population-attributable risks (PARs) were derived for each independent risk factor contained within the final multivariable logistic regression model. Estimated PARs were combined with adjusted (for the >5 years of age eligibility criterion) notifiable disease surveillance data to estimate annual Australian Campylobacter case numbers attributable to each risk factor. Simulated distributions of “credible values” were then generated to model the uncertainty associated with each case number estimate. Among foodborne risk factors, an estimated 50,500 (95% credible interval 10,000–105,500) cases of Campylobacter infection in persons >5 years of age could be directly attributed each year to consumption of chicken in Australia. Our statistical technique could be applied more widely to other communicable diseases that are subject to routine surveillance. PMID:18507899

  15. Health risk assessment of irradiated topaz

    SciTech Connect

    Nelson, J.W.; Baum, J.W. )

    1993-01-01

    Irradiated topaz gemstones are currently processed for color improvement by subjecting clear stones to neutron or high-energy electron irradiations, which leads to activation of trace elements in the stones. Assessment of the risk to consumers required the identification and quantification of the resultant radionuclides and the attendant exposure. Representative stones from Brazil, India, Nigeria, Sri Lanka were irradiated and analyzed for gamma ray and beta particle emissions, using sodium iodide and germanium spectrometers; and Geiger-Muller, plastic and liquid scintillation, autoradiography, and thermoluminescent-dosimetry measurement techniques. Based on these studies and other information derived from published literature, dose and related risk estimates were made for typical user conditions. New criteria and methods for routine assays for acceptable release, based on gross beta and gross photon emissions from the stones, were also developed.

  16. How to estimate the Value at Risk under incomplete information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Schepper, Ann; Heijnen, Bart

    2010-03-01

    A key problem in financial and actuarial research, and particularly in the field of risk management, is the choice of models so as to avoid systematic biases in the measurement of risk. An alternative consists of relaxing the assumption that the probability distribution is completely known, leading to interval estimates instead of point estimates. In the present contribution, we show how this is possible for the Value at Risk, by fixing only a small number of parameters of the underlying probability distribution. We start by deriving bounds on tail probabilities, and we show how a conversion leads to bounds for the Value at Risk. It will turn out that with a maximum of three given parameters, the best estimates are always realized in the case of a unimodal random variable for which two moments and the mode are given. It will also be shown that a lognormal model results in estimates for the Value at Risk that are much closer to the upper bound than to the lower bound.

  17. Behavioral science perspectives on health hazard/health risk appraisal.

    PubMed Central

    Becker, M H; Janz, N K

    1987-01-01

    Health-promotion efforts often employ HRA as a device for providing an individual with quantitative information about the consequences of personal health-related behaviors and as an attempt to motivate the client to adopt recommendations directed at establishing a healthier lifestyle. From a behavioral science perspective, the HRA approach and process contain elements that (at least in retrospective analysis) appear to be founded in relevant bodies of theory. First, HRA seems to be a reasonably efficient mechanism for transmitting information relative to associations between personal health behaviors and mortality risks. Moreover, while general knowledge and advice about the untoward consequences of risk factors (such as smoking, obesity, high blood pressure, etc.) are currently widespread, HRA provides new and specific information: the client's own relative risks. Some individuals who voluntarily participate in HRA bring to the experience an already high level of readiness to take action; for them, the technique may constitute the final necessary stimulus or "cue to action" [12]. Referring to a "borrowing from the future" phenomenon, Green points out that "some educational efforts are really only triggers to behavior that would have changed eventually anyway" [44, p. 159]. Thus, where motivation is sufficiently high, receipt of HRA feedback information may by itself be capable of inducing behavior change. Second, the focus on awareness and personalization of mortality risk fits well with most theoretical formulations concerning attitudes and beliefs involved in health-related decision making. Although the emphasis on mortality and often distant negative outcomes is problematic, increasing the client's perception of personal vulnerability is a psychologically defensible approach, and fear arousal can generate attitude change (although questions of appropriate level, duration of effects obtained, acceptability, etc. still need to be resolved). Third, HRA might be

  18. [Perception of health risks: psychological and social factors].

    PubMed

    Kurzenhäuser, S; Epp, A

    2009-12-01

    This article reviews central findings and current developments of psychological and sociological research on the perception of health risks. Risk perception is influenced by numerous psychological, social, political, and cultural factors. These factors can be categorized into (a) risk characteristics, (b) characteristics of the risk perceiving person and his/her situation, and (c) characteristics of risk communication. Thus, besides individual cognitive and affective processing of risk information, social processes of risk amplification (e.g., media effects) are also involved in the construction of individual risk perceptions. We discuss the recommendations for health risk communication that follow from these findings with regard to different communication goals. PMID:19862487

  19. Health and safety risks in production agriculture.

    PubMed Central

    Von Essen, S G; McCurdy, S A

    1998-01-01

    Production agriculture is associated with a variety of occupational illnesses and injuries. Agricultural workers are at higher risk of death or disabling injury than most other workers. Traumatic injury commonly occurs from working with machinery or animals. Respiratory illness and health problems from exposures to farm chemicals are major concerns, and dermatoses, hearing loss, certain cancers, and zoonotic infections are important problems. Innovative means of encouraging safe work practices are being developed. Efforts are being made to reach all groups of farmworkers, including migrant and seasonal workers, farm youth, and older farmers. PMID:9795581

  20. Studies on the extended Techa river cohort: cancer risk estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Kossenko, M M.; Preston, D L.; Krestinina, L Y.; Degteva, M O.; Startsev, N V.; Thomas, T; Vyushkova, O V.; Anspaugh, L R.; Napier, Bruce A. ); Kozheurov, V P.; Ron, E; Akleyev, A V.

    2001-12-01

    Initial population-based studies of riverside residents were begun in the late 1950s and in 1967 a systematic effort was undertaken to develop a well-defined fixed cohort of Techa river residents, to carry out ongoing mortality and (limited) clinical follow-up of this cohort, and to provide individualized dose estimates for cohort members. Over the past decade, extensive efforts have been made to refine the cohort definition and improve both the follow-up and dosimetry data. Analyses of the Techa river cohort can provide useful quantitative estimates of the effects of low dose rate, chronic external and internal exposures on cancer mortality and incidence and non-cancer mortality rates. These risk estimates complement quantitative risk estimates for acute exposures based on the atomic bomb survivors and chronic exposure risk estimates from worker studies, including Mayak workers and other groups with occupational radiation exposures. As the dosimetry and follow-up are refined it may also be possible to gain useful insights into risks associated with 90Sr exposures.

  1. Estimated long-term health effects

    SciTech Connect

    Cardis, F.; Okeanov, A.E.; Likthariev, I.; Prisyazhniuk; Anspaugh, L.R.; Mabuchi, K.; Ivanov, V.K.

    1996-04-01

    Apart from the dramatic increase in thyroid cancer in those exposed as children, there is no evidence to date of a major public health impact of the radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident in the three most affected countries. Although some increases in the frequency of cancer in exposed populations have been reported, these results are difficult to interpret, mainly because of differences in the intensity and method of follow-up between exposed populations and the general population to which they are compared. If the experience of atomic bomb survivors and of other exposed populations is applicable, the major radiological impact of the accident will be cancer and the total lifetime numbers of excess cancers will be greatest among the liquidators and among the residents of contaminated territories, of the order of 2,000 to 2,500. These increases would be difficult to detect epidemiologically against an expected background number of 41,500 and 433,000 respectively (size of the exposed populations: 200,000 and 3,700,000, respectively). It is noted, however, that the exposures received by populations exposed as a result of Chernobyl are different (in type and pattern) from those of atomic bomb survivors. Predictions derived from these populations are therefore uncertain. Indeed, the extent of the increase in thyroid cancer incidence in persons exposed as children was not foreseen. In addition, only ten years have passed since the accident. It is essential therefore that monitoring of the health of the population be continued in order to assess the public health impact of the accident, even if, apart from leukemia among liquidators, little detectable increase of cancers due to radiation from the Chernobyl accident is expected.

  2. A simple procedure for estimating pseudo risk ratios from exposure to non-carcinogenic chemical mixtures.

    PubMed

    Scinicariello, Franco; Portier, Christopher

    2016-03-01

    Non-cancer risk assessment traditionally assumes a threshold of effect, below which there is a negligible risk of an adverse effect. The Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry derives health-based guidance values known as Minimal Risk Levels (MRLs) as estimates of the toxicity threshold for non-carcinogens. Although the definition of an MRL, as well as EPA reference dose values (RfD and RfC), is a level that corresponds to "negligible risk," they represent daily exposure doses or concentrations, not risks. We present a new approach to calculate the risk at exposure to specific doses for chemical mixtures, the assumption in this approach is to assign de minimis risk at the MRL. The assigned risk enables the estimation of parameters in an exponential model, providing a complete dose-response curve for each compound from the chosen point of departure to zero. We estimated parameters for 27 chemicals. The value of k, which determines the shape of the dose-response curve, was moderately insensitive to the choice of the risk at the MRL. The approach presented here allows for the calculation of a risk from a single substance or the combined risk from multiple chemical exposures in a community. The methodology is applicable from point of departure data derived from quantal data, such as data from benchmark dose analyses or from data that can be transformed into probabilities, such as lowest-observed-adverse-effect level. The individual risks are used to calculate risk ratios that can facilitate comparison and cost-benefit analyses of environmental contamination control strategies. PMID:25667015

  3. Mobile Applications for Type 2 Diabetes Risk Estimation: a Systematic Review.

    PubMed

    Fijacko, Nino; Brzan, Petra Povalej; Stiglic, Gregor

    2015-10-01

    Screening for chronical diseases like type 2 diabetes can be done using different methods and various risk tests. This study present a review of type 2 diabetes risk estimation mobile applications focusing on their functionality and availability of information on the underlying risk calculators. Only 9 out of 31 reviewed mobile applications, featured in three major mobile application stores, disclosed the name of risk calculator used for assessing the risk of type 2 diabetes. Even more concerning, none of the reviewed applications mentioned that they are collecting the data from users to improve the performance of their risk estimation calculators or offer users the descriptive statistics of the results from users that already used the application. For that purpose the questionnaires used for calculation of risk should be upgraded by including the information on the most recent blood sugar level measurements from users. Although mobile applications represent a great future potential for health applications, developers still do not put enough emphasis on informing the user of the underlying methods used to estimate the risk for a specific clinical condition. PMID:26303152

  4. U.S. Department of Energy worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with environmental restoration and waste management

    SciTech Connect

    Blaylock, B.P.; Legg, J.; Travis, C.C.; Simek, M.A.; Sutherland, J.; Scofield, P.A.

    1995-06-01

    This document describes a worker health risk evaluation methodology for assessing risks associated with Environmental Restoration (ER) and Waste Management (WM). The methodology is appropriate for estimating worker risks across the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex at both programmatic and site-specific levels. This document supports the worker health risk methodology used to perform the human health risk assessment portion of the DOE Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS) although it has applications beyond the PEIS, such as installation-wide worker risk assessments, screening-level assessments, and site-specific assessments.

  5. Sensitivity of risk estimates to wildlife bioaccumulation factors in ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Karustis, C.G.; Brewer, R.A.

    1995-12-31

    The concept of conservatism in risk assessment is well established. However, overly conservative assumptions may result in risk estimates that incorrectly predict remediation goals. Therefore, realistic assumptions should be applied in risk assessment whenever possible. A sensitivity analysis was performed on conservative (i.e. bioaccumulation factor = 1) and scientifically-derived wildlife bioaccumulation factors (BAFs) utilized to calculate risks during a terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA). In the first approach, 100% bioaccumulation of contaminants was assumed to estimate the transfer of contaminants through the terrestrial food chain. In the second approach, scientifically-derived BAFs were selected from the literature. For one of the measurement species selected, total risks calculated during the first approach were higher than those calculated during the second approach by two orders of magnitude. However, potential risks due to individual contaminants were not necessarily higher using the conservative approach. Potential risk due to contaminants with low actual bioaccumulation were exaggerated while potential risks due to contaminants with greater than 100% bioaccumulation were underestimated. Therefore, the use of a default of 100% bioaccumulation (BAF = 1) for all contaminants encountered during an ERA could result in cases where contaminants are incorrectly identified as risk drivers, and the calculation of incorrect ecological risk-based cleanup goals. The authors suggest using site-specific or literature-derived BAFs whenever possible and realistic BAF estimates, based upon factors such as log K{sub ow}, when BAFs are unavailable.

  6. Becoming overweight: is there a health risk?

    PubMed

    Ginter, E; Simko, V

    2014-01-01

    Overweight and obesity is becoming widespread enough to generate an acceptable and misleading social status. By 2030, in the USA up to 86 % of adults will be overweight or obese. Some selected statistical data based on the body mass index (BMI) indicated that overweight was not associated with increased mortality, this provoked a conceivable interest. Added to this is the observation that while the prevalence of obesity is dramatically increasing, the cardiovascular mortality and life expectancy in the European Union and USA has improved. When more sensitive indicators of body adiposity and its distribution than the BMI, like the waist-thigh ratio in both sexes and the waist-hip ratio in women are projected on mortality, it becomes obvious that even overweight is associated with an increased health risk. Gaining excessive body fat is a continuous, frequently progressive process. Present obesity epidemic in childhood will manifest with deleterious consequences only in future years when adolescents reach adulthood. Prevention is thus essential even before the overweight sets in. Improved life expectancy observed in large populations despite obesity epidemic, is a favourable medical success in the management of hypertension, of serum lipid disorders and diabetes. While encouraging, when it is observed in large population, it does not take away the potential health risk of a metabolic disorder in an individual who is overweight (Fig. 7, Ref. 25). PMID:25318909

  7. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed Central

    2000-01-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  8. Evaluation and use of epidemiological evidence for environmental health risk assessment: WHO guideline document.

    PubMed

    2000-10-01

    Environmental health risk assessment is increasingly being used in the development of environmental health policies, public health decision making, the establishment of environmental regulations, and research planning. The credibility of risk assessment depends, to a large extent, on the strength of the scientific evidence on which it is based. It is, therefore, imperative that the processes and methods used to evaluate the evidence and estimate health risks are clear, explicit, and based on valid epidemiological theory and practice. Epidemiological Evidence for Environmental Health Risk Assessment is a World Health Organization (WHO) guideline document. The primary target audiences of the guidelines are expert review groups that WHO (or other organizations) might convene in the future to evaluate epidemiological evidence on the health effects of environmental factors. These guidelines identify a set of processes and general approaches to assess available epidemiological information in a clear, consistent, and explicit manner. The guidelines should also help in the evaluation of epidemiological studies with respect to their ability to support risk assessment and, consequently, risk management. Conducting expert reviews according to such explicit guidelines would make health risk assessment and subsequent risk management and risk communication processes more readily understood and likely to be accepted by policymakers and the public. It would also make the conclusions reached by reviews more readily acceptable as a basis for future WHO guidelines and other recommendations, and would provide a more rational basis for setting priorities for future research. PMID:11049823

  9. Risk estimations, risk factors, and genetic variants associated with Alzheimer's disease in selected publications from the Framingham Heart Study.

    PubMed

    Weinstein, Galit; Wolf, Philip A; Beiser, Alexa S; Au, Rhoda; Seshadri, Sudha

    2013-01-01

    The study of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the Framingham Heart Study (FHS), a multi-generational, community-based population study, began nearly four decades ago. In this overview, we highlight findings from seven prior publications that examined lifetime risk estimates for AD, environmental risk factors for AD, circulating and imaging markers of aging-related brain injury, and explorations on the genetics underlying AD. First, we describe estimations of the lifetime risk of AD. These estimates are distinguished from other measures of disease burden and have substantial public health implications. We then describe prospective studies of environmental AD risk factors: one examined the association between plasma levels of omega-3 fatty-acid and risk of incident AD, the other explored the association of diabetes to this risk in subsamples with specific characteristics. With evidence of inflammation as an underlying mechanism, we also describe findings from a study that compared the effects of serum cytokines and spontaneous production of peripheral blood mononuclear cell cytokines on AD risk. Investigating AD related endophenotypes increases sensitivity in identifying risk factors and can be used to explore pathophysiologic pathways between a risk factor and the disease. We describe findings of an association between large volume of white matter hyperintensities and a specific pattern of cognitive deficits in non-demented participants. Finally, we summarize our findings from two genetic studies: The first used genome-wide association (GWA) and family-based association methods to explore the genetic basis of cognitive and structural brain traits. The second is a large meta-analysis GWA study of AD, in which novel loci of AD susceptibility were found. Together, these findings demonstrate the FHS multi-directional efforts in investigating dementia and AD. PMID:22796871

  10. Human health risk assessment from exposure to trihalomethanes in Canadian cities.

    PubMed

    Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Hall, Kevin

    2010-07-01

    Lifetime exposure to trihalomethanes (THMs) through ingestion, inhalation and dermal contacts may pose risks to human health. Current approaches may under predict THMs exposure by using THMs in cold water during showering and bathing. Warming of chlorinated water during showering may increase THMs formation through reactions between organics and residual chlorine, which can increase human health risks. In this study, THMs concentrations in shower water were estimated using THMs rate increase model. Using cold water THMs, exposure through ingestion was estimated, while THMs exposure during showering was estimated using THMs in warm water. Human health cancer risks and additional expenses for 20 most populated Canadian cities from exposure to THMs were estimated. Inhalation and dermal contact during showering contributed 30% to 50% of total cancer risks, while risks from inhalation and dermal contacts were comparable for all cities. Overall cancer risks were estimated between 7.2 x 10(-6) and 6.4 x 10(-5) for these cities. Cancer incidents were estimated highest for Montreal (94/year) followed by Toronto (53/year), which may require additional medical expenses of 18.8 and 10.7 million dollars/year for Montreal and Toronto respectively. Cancer risks from exposure to THMs can be controlled by reducing THMs in water supply and varying shower stall volume, shower duration and air exchange rate in shower stall. PMID:20434775

  11. Worldwide Exposures to Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Associated Health Effects: Current Knowledge and Data Gaps.

    PubMed

    Tzoulaki, Ioanna; Elliott, Paul; Kontis, Vasilis; Ezzati, Majid

    2016-06-01

    Information on exposure to, and health effects of, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is needed to develop effective strategies to prevent CVD events and deaths. Here, we provide an overview of the data and evidence on worldwide exposures to CVD risk factors and the associated health effects. Global comparative risk assessment studies have estimated that hundreds of thousands or millions of CVD deaths are attributable to established CVD risk factors (high blood pressure and serum cholesterol, smoking, and high blood glucose), high body mass index, harmful alcohol use, some dietary and environmental exposures, and physical inactivity. The established risk factors plus body mass index are collectively responsible for ≈9.7 million annual CVD deaths, with high blood pressure accounting for more CVD deaths than any other risk factor. Age-standardized CVD death rates attributable to established risk factors plus high body mass index are lowest in high-income countries, followed by Latin America and the Caribbean; they are highest in the region of central and eastern Europe and central Asia. However, estimates of the health effects of CVD risk factors are highly uncertain because there are insufficient population-based data on exposure to most CVD risk factors and because the magnitudes of their effects on CVDs in observational studies are likely to be biased. We identify directions for research and surveillance to better estimate the effects of CVD risk factors and policy options for reducing CVD burden by modifying preventable risk factors. PMID:27267538

  12. Reconstruction of financial networks for robust estimation of systemic risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mastromatteo, Iacopo; Zarinelli, Elia; Marsili, Matteo

    2012-03-01

    In this paper we estimate the propagation of liquidity shocks through interbank markets when the information about the underlying credit network is incomplete. We show that techniques such as maximum entropy currently used to reconstruct credit networks severely underestimate the risk of contagion by assuming a trivial (fully connected) topology, a type of network structure which can be very different from the one empirically observed. We propose an efficient message-passing algorithm to explore the space of possible network structures and show that a correct estimation of the network degree of connectedness leads to more reliable estimations for systemic risk. Such an algorithm is also able to produce maximally fragile structures, providing a practical upper bound for the risk of contagion when the actual network structure is unknown. We test our algorithm on ensembles of synthetic data encoding some features of real financial networks (sparsity and heterogeneity), finding that more accurate estimations of risk can be achieved. Finally we find that this algorithm can be used to control the amount of information that regulators need to require from banks in order to sufficiently constrain the reconstruction of financial networks.

  13. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection.

    PubMed

    Codd, Geoffrey A; Morrison, Louise F; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles. PMID:15737680

  14. Cyanobacterial toxins: risk management for health protection

    SciTech Connect

    Codd, Geoffrey A.; Morrison, Louise F.; Metcalf, James S

    2005-03-15

    This paper reviews the occurrence and properties of cyanobacterial toxins, with reference to the recognition and management of the human health risks which they may present. Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in natural and controlled waterbodies include blooms and scums of planktonic species, and mats and biofilms of benthic species. Toxic cyanobacterial populations have been reported in freshwaters in over 45 countries, and in numerous brackish, coastal, and marine environments. The principal toxigenic genera are listed. Known sources of the families of cyanobacterial toxins (hepato-, neuro-, and cytotoxins, irritants, and gastrointestinal toxins) are briefly discussed. Key procedures in the risk management of cyanobacterial toxins and cells are reviewed, including derivations (where sufficient data are available) of tolerable daily intakes (TDIs) and guideline values (GVs) with reference to the toxins in drinking water, and guideline levels for toxigenic cyanobacteria in bathing waters. Uncertainties and some gaps in knowledge are also discussed, including the importance of exposure media (animal and plant foods), in addition to potable and recreational waters. Finally, we present an outline of steps to develop and implement risk management strategies for cyanobacterial cells and toxins in waterbodies, with recent applications and the integration of Hazard Assessment Critical Control Point (HACCP) principles.

  15. Neoplastic potential of gastric irradiation. IV. Risk estimates

    SciTech Connect

    Griem, M.L.; Justman, J.; Weiss, L.

    1984-12-01

    No significant tumor increase was found in the initial analysis of patients irradiated for peptic ulcer and followed through 1962. A preliminary study was undertaken 22 years later to estimate the risk of cancer due to gastric irradiation for peptic ulcer disease. A population of 2,049 irradiated patients and 763 medically managed patients has been identified. A relative risk of 3.7 was found for stomach cancer and an initial risk estimate of 5.5 x 10(-6) excess stomach cancers per person rad was calculated. A more complete follow-up is in progress to further elucidate this observation and decrease the ascertainment bias; however, preliminary data are in agreement with the Japanese atomic bomb reports.

  16. Psychology in health risk messages for workers.

    PubMed

    Cohen, A; Colligan, M J; Berger, P

    1985-08-01

    The content, style, and mode of company communications directed to workers regarding job hazards and health risks are frequently based only on concerns for technical accuracy and legal liability. These considerations as shaping factors in informational messages do not ensure worker understanding and responsiveness. Moreover, the uncertainty of health threats posed by many workplace chemical and physical agents, and the delayed, insidious disorders they may portend, present formidable obstacles in this regard. This report describes guidelines that attempt to overcome these difficulties, with specific reference to printed forms of informational material. The guidelines are based on concepts from the cognitive and social psychology literature, with additional input from experts in those fields as well as representatives from management and labor who have responsibilities for worker health education in their respective organizations. Selected guidelines are presented and critiques are offered of samples of hazard information materials directed to workers in light of the guidelines' prescriptions. Field trials are planned as a follow-up. PMID:4032089

  17. [Health risk among workers employed in rubber footwear plant].

    PubMed

    Szubert, Z; Wilczyńska, U; Sobala, W

    2001-01-01

    The aim of the study was to assess the health risk of workers performing specific jobs in the process of the rubber footwear production by defining the cause and length of temporary work disability, as well as mortality causes and level. The analysis was carried out in the groups of workers performing the following jobs: mixing, mill operation, pressing and vulcanizing (A); semi-product preparation and calendaring (B); finishing and sorting (C); production of polyvinyl chloride footwear (D); and auxiliary works (E). The sickness absence study covered all workers (208 men and 315 women) employed in a large rubber footwear company and performing all above-listed jobs in 1995. Standardized sick days ratio was used to analyze the risk of temporary work disability. Mortality rate was estimated on the basis of the results of the cohort study performed in the same company among workers who had worked at least three months during the years 1945-1985. The follow-up continued until 31 December 1997. The present study included sub-cohorts composed of 5628 men and 7197 women, performing jobs listed above. The results of both studies indicated the enhanced risk of cardiovascular diseases among workers employed in the basic phases of the production process. The increased risk of the diseases of the digestive system was observed in men and women employed in: finishing, sorting and packing of the products (group C); in men involved in mixing, pressing and vulcanizing (group A); and in women engaged in auxiliary works (group E). In addition, the enhanced risk of sickness absence due to the diseases of the respiratory, digestive, or genitourinary systems was related to the enhanced risk of death from malignant neoplasms in a given site. The analysis showed that the temporary work disability may be regarded as a parameter useful in early assessment of health effects of the work environmental hazards. PMID:11928670

  18. Estimation of myocardial volume at risk from CT angiography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Liangjia; Gao, Yi; Mohan, Vandana; Stillman, Arthur; Faber, Tracy; Tannenbaum, Allen

    2011-03-01

    The determination of myocardial volume at risk distal to coronary stenosis provides important information for prognosis and treatment of coronary artery disease. In this paper, we present a novel computational framework for estimating the myocardial volume at risk in computed tomography angiography (CTA) imagery. Initially, epicardial and endocardial surfaces, and coronary arteries are extracted using an active contour method. Then, the extracted coronary arteries are projected onto the epicardial surface, and each point on this surface is associated with its closest coronary artery using the geodesic distance measurement. The likely myocardial region at risk on the epicardial surface caused by a stenosis is approximated by the region in which all its inner points are associated with the sub-branches distal to the stenosis on the coronary artery tree. Finally, the likely myocardial volume at risk is approximated by the volume in between the region at risk on the epicardial surface and its projection on the endocardial surface, which is expected to yield computational savings over risk volume estimation using the entire image volume. Furthermore, we expect increased accuracy since, as compared to prior work using the Euclidean distance, we employ the geodesic distance in this work. The experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach on pig heart CTA datasets.

  19. Occupational Health Promotion Programs to Reduce Cardiovascular Risk.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glasgow, Russell E.; Terborg, James R.

    1988-01-01

    Surveys literature on worksite health promotion programs targeting cardiovascular risk factors. Reviews findings on health-risk appraisal, hypertension control, smoking cessation, weight reduction, exercise, and programs addressing multiple risk factors. Discusses current knowledge, highlights exemplary studies, and identifies problems and…

  20. Human health risks in megacities due to air pollution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gurjar, B. R.; Jain, A.; Sharma, A.; Agarwal, A.; Gupta, P.; Nagpure, A. S.; Lelieveld, J.

    2010-11-01

    This study evaluates the health risks in megacities in terms of mortality and morbidity due to air pollution. A new spreadsheet model, Risk of Mortality/Morbidity due to Air Pollution (Ri-MAP), is used to estimate the excess numbers of deaths and illnesses. By adopting the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline concentrations for the air pollutants SO 2, NO 2 and total suspended particles (TSP), concentration-response relationships and a population attributable-risk proportion concept are employed. Results suggest that some megacities like Los Angeles, New York, Osaka Kobe, Sao Paulo and Tokyo have very low excess cases in total mortality from these pollutants. In contrast, the approximate numbers of cases is highest in Karachi (15,000/yr) characterized by a very high concentration of total TSP (˜670 μg m -3). Dhaka (7000/yr), Beijing (5500/yr), Karachi (5200/yr), Cairo (5000/yr) and Delhi (3500/yr) rank highest with cardiovascular mortality. The morbidity (hospital admissions) due to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) follows the tendency of cardiovascular mortality. Dhaka and Karachi lead the rankings, having about 2100/yr excess cases, while Osaka-Kobe (˜20/yr) and Sao Paulo (˜50/yr) are at the low end of all megacities considered. Since air pollution is increasing in many megacities, and our database of measured pollutants is limited to the period up to 2000 and does not include all relevant components (e.g. O 3), these numbers should be interpreted as lower limits. South Asian megacities most urgently need improvement of air quality to prevent excess mortality and morbidity due to exceptionally high levels of air pollution. The risk estimates obtained from Ri-MAP present a realistic baseline evaluation for the consequences of ambient air pollution in comparison to simple air quality indices, and can be expanded and improved in parallel with the development of air pollution monitoring networks.

  1. Biomarkers: Dynamic "Tools" for Health and Safety Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Today informational flow from biomarkers contributes importantly to various types of health effects research, risk assessment and risk management decisions that impact, or have the potential to impact, public health and safety. Therefore, dependent upon the nature of the health r...

  2. Identifying health and safety risks for childcare workers.

    PubMed

    McGrath, Belinda J

    2007-08-01

    Childcare workers are exposed to several health and safety risks in their work environment, the most common being infectious diseases, musculoskeletal injuries, accidents, and occupational stress. Pregnant childcare workers have an additional risk of potential harm to the fetus. Occupational health nurses can work collaboratively with childcare workers to reduce these risks and provide workplace health promotion programs. This article explores the occupational health and safety issues for childcare workers and suggests health promotion strategies that could be implemented by occupational health nurses working in this arena. PMID:17847626

  3. Estimate of the risks of disposing nonhazardous oil field wastes into salt caverns

    SciTech Connect

    Tomasko, D.; Elcock, D.; Veil, J.

    1997-12-31

    Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) has completed an evaluation of the possibility that adverse human health effects (carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic) could result from exposure to contaminants released from nonhazardous oil field wastes (NOW) disposed in domal salt caverns. Potential human health risks associated with hazardous substances (arsenic, benzene, cadmium, and chromium) in NOW were assessed under four postclosure cavern release scenarios: inadvertent cavern intrusion, failure of the cavern seal, failure of the cavern through cracks or leaky interbeds, and a partial collapse of the cavern roof. To estimate potential human health risks for these scenarios, contaminant concentrations at the receptor were calculated using a one-dimensional solution to an advection/dispersion equation that included first order degradation. Assuming a single, generic salt cavern and generic oil-field wastes, the best-estimate excess cancer risks ranged from 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}12} to 1.1 {times} 10{sup {minus}8} and hazard indices (referring to noncancer health effects) ranged from 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 7 {times} 10{sup {minus}4}. Under worse-case conditions in which the probability of cavern failure is 1.0, excess cancer risks ranged from 4.9 {times} 10{sup {minus}9} to 1.7 {times} 10{sup {minus}5} and hazard indices ranged from 7.0 {times} 10{sup {minus}4} to 0.07. Even under worst-case conditions, the risks are within the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) target range for acceptable exposure levels. From a human health risk perspective, salt caverns can, therefore, provide an acceptable disposal method for NOW.

  4. Incidence of Online Health Information Search: A Useful Proxy for Public Health Risk Perception

    PubMed Central

    Scammon, Debra L

    2013-01-01

    resources, such as hospital care utilization (P=.008) and public health funds (P=.02)—have significant effects on Web searches for queries related to the flu. After controlling for the number of reported disease cases and Internet access rate by state, we estimate the contribution of social factors to the public health risk perception levels by state (R2=23.37%). The interaction effects between flu incidence and social factors for our search terms did not add to the explanatory power of our regression models (R2<1%). Conclusions Our study suggests a practical way to measure the public’s health risk perception for certain diseases using online information search volume by state. The social environment influences public risk perception regardless of disease incidence. Thus, monitoring the social variables can be very helpful in being ready to respond to the public’s behavior in dealing with public health threats. PMID:23773974

  5. Editorial: Lead Risk Assessment and Health Effects

    PubMed Central

    Mielke, Howard W.

    2016-01-01

    In 1980, Clair C. Patterson stated: “Sometime in the near future it probably will be shown that the older urban areas of the United States have been rendered more or less uninhabitable by the millions of tons of poisonous industrial lead residues that have accumulated in cities during the past century”. We live in the near future about which this quote expressed concern. This special volume of 19 papers explores the status of scientific evidence regarding Dr. Patterson’s statement on the habitability of the environments of communities. Authors from 10 countries describe a variety of lead issues in the context of large and small communities, smelter sites, lead industries, lead-based painted houses, and vehicle fuel treated with lead additives dispersed by traffic. These articles represent the microcosm of the larger health issues associated with lead. The challenges of lead risk require a concerted global action for primary prevention. PMID:27314364

  6. Editorial: Lead Risk Assessment and Health Effects.

    PubMed

    Mielke, Howard W

    2016-01-01

    In 1980, Clair C. Patterson stated: "Sometime in the near future it probably will be shown that the older urban areas of the United States have been rendered more or less uninhabitable by the millions of tons of poisonous industrial lead residues that have accumulated in cities during the past century". We live in the near future about which this quote expressed concern. This special volume of 19 papers explores the status of scientific evidence regarding Dr. Patterson's statement on the habitability of the environments of communities. Authors from 10 countries describe a variety of lead issues in the context of large and small communities, smelter sites, lead industries, lead-based painted houses, and vehicle fuel treated with lead additives dispersed by traffic. These articles represent the microcosm of the larger health issues associated with lead. The challenges of lead risk require a concerted global action for primary prevention. PMID:27314364

  7. Poor periodontal health: A cancer risk?

    PubMed Central

    Rajesh, K. S.; Thomas, Deepak; Hegde, Shashikanth; Kumar, M. S. Arun

    2013-01-01

    Evidence indicates that chronic infections and inflammation are associated with increased risk of cancer development. There has also been considerable evidence that proves the interrelationship between bacterial and viral infections and carcinogenesis. Periodontitis is a chronic oral infection thought to be caused by gram-negative anaerobic bacteria in the dental biofilm. Periodontal bacteria and viruses may act synergistically to cause periodontitis. Many studies have shown that periodontal pockets may act as reservoirs for human papilloma virus, cytomegalovirus, Epstein Barr virus, and suspected agents associated with oral cancer. Periodontitis, characterized by epithelial proliferation and migration, results in a chronic release of inflammatory cytokines, chemokines, growth factors, prostaglandins, and enzymes, all of which are associated with cancer development. This review article intends to shed light on the association between periodontal health and carcinogenesis. PMID:24554877

  8. Risk assessment for the Waste Technologies Industries (WTI) hazardous waste incinerator facility (east Liverpool, Ohio). Volume 5. Human health risk assessment (HHRA): Evaluation of potential risks from multipathway exposure to emissions. Draft report

    SciTech Connect

    1995-11-01

    The Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) portion of the WTI Risk Assessment involves the integration of information about the facility with site-specific data for the surrounding region and population to characterize the potential human health risks due to emissions from the facility. The estimation of human health risks is comprised of the following general steps: (1) identification of substances of potential concern; (2) estimation of the nature and magnitude of chemical releases from the WTI facility; (3) prediction of the atmospheric transport of the emitted contaminants; (4) determination of the types of adverse effects associated with exposure to the substances of potential concern (referred to as hazard identification), and the relationship between the level of exposure and the severity of any health effect (referred to as dose-response assessment); (5) estimation of the magnitude of exposure (referred to as exposure assessment); and (6) characterization of the health risks associated with exposure (referred to as risk characterization).

  9. Human health risk assessment from arsenic exposures in Bangladesh.

    PubMed

    Joseph, Tijo; Dubey, Brajesh; McBean, Edward A

    2015-09-15

    High arsenic exposures, prevalent through dietary and non-dietary sources in Bangladesh, present a major health risk to the public. A quantitative human health risk assessment is described as a result of arsenic exposure through food and water intake, tea intake, accidental soil ingestion, and chewing of betel quid, while people meet their desirable dietary intake requirements throughout their lifetime. In evaluating the contribution of each intake pathway to average daily arsenic intake, the results show that food and water intake combined, makes up approximately 98% of the daily arsenic intake with the balance contributed to by intake pathways such as tea consumption, soil ingestion, and quid consumption. Under an exposure scenario where arsenic concentration in water is at the WHO guideline (0.01 mg/L), food intake is the major arsenic intake pathway ranging from 67% to 80% of the average daily arsenic intake. However, the contribution from food drops to a range of 29% to 45% for an exposure scenario where arsenic in water is at the Bangladesh standard (0.05 mg/L). The lifetime excess risk of cancer occurrence from chronic arsenic exposure, considering a population of 160 million people, based on an exposure scenario with 85 million people at the WHO guideline value and 75 million people at the Bangladesh standard, and assuming that 35 million people are associated with a heavy activity level, is estimated as 1.15 million cases. PMID:26006052

  10. What risk assessments of genetically modified organisms can learn from institutional analyses of public health risks.

    PubMed

    Rajan, S Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

  11. What Risk Assessments of Genetically Modified Organisms Can Learn from Institutional Analyses of Public Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Rajan, S. Ravi; Letourneau, Deborah K.

    2012-01-01

    The risks of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) are evaluated traditionally by combining hazard identification and exposure estimates to provide decision support for regulatory agencies. We question the utility of the classical risk paradigm and discuss its evolution in GMO risk assessment. First, we consider the problem of uncertainty, by comparing risk assessment for environmental toxins in the public health domain with genetically modified organisms in the environment; we use the specific comparison of an insecticide to a transgenic, insecticidal food crop. Next, we examine normal accident theory (NAT) as a heuristic to consider runaway effects of GMOs, such as negative community level consequences of gene flow from transgenic, insecticidal crops. These examples illustrate how risk assessments are made more complex and contentious by both their inherent uncertainty and the inevitability of failure beyond expectation in complex systems. We emphasize the value of conducting decision-support research, embracing uncertainty, increasing transparency, and building interdisciplinary institutions that can address the complex interactions between ecosystems and society. In particular, we argue against black boxing risk analysis, and for a program to educate policy makers about uncertainty and complexity, so that eventually, decision making is not the burden that falls upon scientists but is assumed by the public at large. PMID:23193357

  12. Estimation of the environmental risk of regulated river flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Latu, Kilisimasi; Malano, Hector M.; Costelloe, Justin F.; Peterson, Tim J.

    2014-09-01

    A commonly accepted paradigm in environmental flow management is that a regulated river flow regime should mimic the natural hydrological regime to sustain the key attributes of freshwater ecosystems. Estimation of the environmental risk arising from flow regulation needs to consider all aspects of the flow regime when applied to water allocation decisions. We present a holistic, dynamic and robust approach that is based on a statistical analysis of the entire flow regime and accounts for flow stress indicators to produce an environmental risk time series based on the consequence of departures from the optimum flow range of a river or reach. When applied to a catchment, (Campaspe River, southern Australia) the model produced a dynamic and robust environmental risk time series that clearly showed that when the observed river flow is drawn away from the optimum range of environmental flow demand, the environmental risk increased. In addition, the model produced risk time series showing that the Campaspe River has reversed seasonal patterns of river flow due to water releases during summer periods, which altered the flow nature of the river. Hence, this resulted in higher environmental risk occurring during summer but lower in winter periods. Furthermore, we found that the vulnerability and coefficient of variation indices have the highest contributions to consequence in comparison to other indices used to calculate environmental risk.

  13. Estimation of earthquake risk curves of physical building damage

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raschke, Mathias; Janouschkowetz, Silke; Fischer, Thomas; Simon, Christian

    2014-05-01

    In this study, a new approach to quantify seismic risks is presented. Here, the earthquake risk curves for the number of buildings with a defined physical damage state are estimated for South Africa. Therein, we define the physical damage states according to the current European macro-seismic intensity scale (EMS-98). The advantage of such kind of risk curve is that its plausibility can be checked more easily than for other types. The earthquake risk curve for physical building damage can be compared with historical damage and their corresponding empirical return periods. The number of damaged buildings from historical events is generally explored and documented in more detail than the corresponding monetary losses. The latter are also influenced by different economic conditions, such as inflation and price hikes. Further on, the monetary risk curve can be derived from the developed risk curve of physical building damage. The earthquake risk curve can also be used for the validation of underlying sub-models such as the hazard and vulnerability modules.

  14. [Tobacco cadmium health risk assessment and reduction techniques: A review].

    PubMed

    Cao, Chen-liang; Ma, Yi-bing; Li, Ju-mei; Wei, Dong-pu; Shi, Yi

    2015-04-01

    Tobacco is one of the cadmium accumulation and tolerance plants. Decreasing cadmium content of tobacco contributes to environmental safety and human health. Three aspects on tobacco cadmium research were reviewed in this paper, i.e. uptake and distribution of cadmium in tobacco, and health risk assessment of cadmium in tobacco and reduction measures. The current situations and existing challenges in the research field were discussed. The cadmium tolerance mechanisms of tobacco were reviewed, the factors on cadmium uptake were analyzed, and the general distribution of cadmium in tobacco was summarized. From the point of health risk assessment, the lack of cadmium limits in tobacco was identified, the recommended formula to calculate cadmium limits of tobacco based on atmosphere cadmium limits and digestion cadmium limits was provided and the cadmium limits of tobacco were estimated using each formula, and suggestions on cadmium limits in tobacco were presented. At last, we put forward several effective reduction measures to lower cadmium level in tobacco leaves. PMID:26259474

  15. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.; Dear, Keith

    2015-01-01

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. PMID:25993102

  16. The Relation between Adolescent Self Assessment of Health and Risk Behaviours: Could a Global Measure of Health Provide Indications of Health Risk Exposures?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nkansah-Amankra, Stephen; Walker, Ashley Dawn

    2012-01-01

    Objective: Self-rated health (SRH) has become a key organizing construct for assessing multiple dimensions of populations' physical and psychosocial health functioning. However, it is unclear how adolescents' subjective self assessment of health reflects health risk exposures, co-occurring health risks (problem behaviours) and other pre-existing…

  17. Estimating Skin Cancer Risk: Evaluating Mobile Computer-Adaptive Testing

    PubMed Central

    Djaja, Ngadiman; Janda, Monika; Olsen, Catherine M; Whiteman, David C

    2016-01-01

    Background Response burden is a major detriment to questionnaire completion rates. Computer adaptive testing may offer advantages over non-adaptive testing, including reduction of numbers of items required for precise measurement. Objective Our aim was to compare the efficiency of non-adaptive (NAT) and computer adaptive testing (CAT) facilitated by Partial Credit Model (PCM)-derived calibration to estimate skin cancer risk. Methods We used a random sample from a population-based Australian cohort study of skin cancer risk (N=43,794). All 30 items of the skin cancer risk scale were calibrated with the Rasch PCM. A total of 1000 cases generated following a normal distribution (mean [SD] 0 [1]) were simulated using three Rasch models with three fixed-item (dichotomous, rating scale, and partial credit) scenarios, respectively. We calculated the comparative efficiency and precision of CAT and NAT (shortening of questionnaire length and the count difference number ratio less than 5% using independent t tests). Results We found that use of CAT led to smaller person standard error of the estimated measure than NAT, with substantially higher efficiency but no loss of precision, reducing response burden by 48%, 66%, and 66% for dichotomous, Rating Scale Model, and PCM models, respectively. Conclusions CAT-based administrations of the skin cancer risk scale could substantially reduce participant burden without compromising measurement precision. A mobile computer adaptive test was developed to help people efficiently assess their skin cancer risk. PMID:26800642

  18. Estimating the risks of cancer mortality and genetic defects resulting from exposures to low levels of ionizing radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Buhl, T.E.; Hansen, W.R.

    1984-05-01

    Estimators for calculating the risk of cancer and genetic disorders induced by exposure to ionizing radiation have been recommended by the US National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations, the UN Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, and the International Committee on Radiological Protection. These groups have also considered the risks of somatic effects other than cancer. The US National Council on Radiation Protection and Measurements has discussed risk estimate procedures for radiation-induced health effects. The recommendations of these national and international advisory committees are summarized and compared in this report. Based on this review, two procedures for risk estimation are presented for use in radiological assessments performed by the US Department of Energy under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA). In the first procedure, age- and sex-averaged risk estimators calculated with US average demographic statistics would be used with estimates of radiation dose to calculate the projected risk of cancer and genetic disorders that would result from the operation being reviewed under NEPA. If more site-specific risk estimators are needed, and the demographic information is available, a second procedure is described that would involve direct calculation of the risk estimators using recommended risk-rate factors. The computer program REPCAL has been written to perform this calculation and is described in this report. 25 references, 16 tables.

  19. Estimating the coverage of mental health programmes: a systematic review

    PubMed Central

    De Silva, Mary J; Lee, Lucy; Fuhr, Daniela C; Rathod, Sujit; Chisholm, Dan; Schellenberg, Joanna; Patel, Vikram

    2014-01-01

    Background The large treatment gap for people suffering from mental disorders has led to initiatives to scale up mental health services. In order to track progress, estimates of programme coverage, and changes in coverage over time, are needed. Methods Systematic review of mental health programme evaluations that assess coverage, measured either as the proportion of the target population in contact with services (contact coverage) or as the proportion of the target population who receive appropriate and effective care (effective coverage). We performed a search of electronic databases and grey literature up to March 2013 and contacted experts in the field. Methods to estimate the numerator (service utilization) and the denominator (target population) were reviewed to explore methods which could be used in programme evaluations. Results We identified 15 735 unique records of which only seven met the inclusion criteria. All studies reported contact coverage. No study explicitly measured effective coverage, but it was possible to estimate this for one study. In six studies the numerator of coverage, service utilization, was estimated using routine clinical information, whereas one study used a national community survey. The methods for estimating the denominator, the population in need of services, were more varied and included national prevalence surveys case registers, and estimates from the literature. Conclusions Very few coverage estimates are available. Coverage could be estimated at low cost by combining routine programme data with population prevalence estimates from national surveys. PMID:24760874

  20. A Review of Expertise and Judgment Processes for Risk Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    R. L. Boring

    2007-06-01

    A major challenge of risk and reliability analysis for human errors or hardware failures is the need to enlist expert opinion in areas for which adequate operational data are not available. Experts enlisted in this capacity provide probabilistic estimates of reliability, typically comprised of a measure of central tendency and uncertainty bounds. While formal guidelines for expert elicitation are readily available, they largely fail to provide a theoretical basis for expertise and judgment. This paper reviews expertise and judgment in the context of risk analysis; overviews judgment biases, the role of training, and multivariate judgments; and provides guidance on the appropriate use of atomistic and holistic judgment processes.

  1. A global human health risk assessment for Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5).

    PubMed

    Franzen, Allison; Van Landingham, Cynthia; Greene, Tracy; Plotzke, Kathy; Gentry, Robinan

    2016-02-01

    Decamethylcyclopentasiloxane (D5) is a low-molecular-weight cyclic siloxane used primarily as an intermediate in the production of several widely-used industrial and consumer products and intentionally added to consumer products, personal products and some dry cleaning solvents. The global use requires consideration of consumer use information and risk assessment requirements from various sources and authoritative bodies. A global "harmonized" risk assessment was conducted to meet requirements for substance-specific risk assessments conducted by regulatory agencies such as USEPA's Integrated Risk Information System (IRIS), Health Canada and various independent scientific committees of the European Commission, as well as provide guidance for chemical safety assessments under REACH in Europe, and other relevant authoritative bodies. This risk assessment incorporates global exposure information combined with a Monte Carlo analysis to determine the most significant routes of exposure, utilization of a multi-species, multi-route physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model to estimate internal dose metrics, benchmark modeling to determine a point of departure (POD), and a margin of safety (MOS) evaluation to compare the estimates of intake with the POD. Because of the specific pharmacokinetic behaviors of D5 including high lipophilicity, high volatility with low blood-to-air partition coefficients and extensive metabolic clearance that regulate tissue dose after exposure, the use of a PBPK model was essential to provide a comparison of a dose metric that reflects these processes. The characterization of the potential for adverse effects after exposure to D5 using a MOS approach based on an internal dose metric removes the subjective application of uncertainty factors that may be applied across various regulatory agencies and allows examination of the differences between internal dose metrics associated with exposure and those associated with adverse effects. PMID

  2. Correlating pharmaceutical data with a national health survey as a proxy for estimating rural population health

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Chronic disease accounts for nearly three-quarters of US deaths, yet prevalence rates are not consistently reported at the state level and are not available at the sub-state level. This makes it difficult to assess trends in prevalence and impossible to measure sub-state differences. Such county-level differences could inform and direct the delivery of health services to those with the greatest need. Methods We used a database of prescription drugs filled in the US as a proxy for nationwide, county-level prevalence of three top causes of death: heart disease, stroke, and diabetes. We tested whether prescription data are statistically valid proxy measures for prevalence, using the correlation between prescriptions filled at the state level and comparable Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data. We further tested for statistically significant national geographic patterns. Results Fourteen correlations were tested for years in which the BRFSS questions were asked (1999-2003), and all were statistically significant. The correlations at the state level ranged from a low of 0.41 (stroke, 1999) to a high of 0.73 (heart disease, 2003). We also mapped self-reported chronic illnesses along with prescription rates associated with those illnesses. Conclusions County prescription drug rates were shown to be valid measures of sub-state estimates of diagnosed prevalence and could be used to target health resources to counties in need. This methodology could be particularly helpful to rural areas whose prevalence rates cannot be estimated using national surveys. While there are no spatial statistically significant patterns nationally, there are significant variations within states that suggest unmet health needs. PMID:20840767

  3. Accuracy of Parents' Perceptions of Their College Student Children's Health and Health Risk Behaviors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bylund, Carma L.; Imes, Rebecca S.; Baxter, Leslie A.

    2005-01-01

    The authors compared parents' perceptions of their college student children's health and health risk behaviors with the college students' own reports. One hundred sixty-four parent-college student child dyads completed questionnaires regarding the students' health, illness status, and health risk behaviors. Parents tended to be overoptimistic…

  4. Public Health Service report on fluoride benefits and risks

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1991-06-14

    This report, Public Health Service Report on Fluoride Benefits and Risks is a summary of the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of Review of Fluoride Benefits and Risks: Report of the Ad Hoc Subcommittee on Fluoride of the Committee to Coordinate Environmental Health and Related Programs, published in February 1991. The full report was prepared by an ad hoc subcommittee of the United States Public Health Service's Committee to Coordinate Environmental Health and Related Programs (CCEHRP) at the request of the Assistant Secretary for Health. The full report can be obtained from the Public Health Service, Department of Health and Human Services.

  5. Health Risk Assessment for Area 514 RCRA Closure

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, G M; Hall, L C

    2005-05-26

    10{sup -3}, and an acute hazard index of 9 x 10{sup -1}. The estimated incremental cancer risk for the residential receptor, 1 x 10{sup -6}, was calculated by adjusting contaminant concentrations to account for background levels of metals at the Livermore LLNL site. When no adjustments for background concentrations are made, the estimated incremental cancer risk is 3 x 10{sup -6}. The chronic hazard index for the residential receptor, 2 x 10{sup -1}, was developed without accounting for background concentrations of metals. These values are all below levels associated with health concerns, and support the conclusion that further cleanup of the area is not necessary.

  6. Tracking Psychosocial Health in Adults with Epilepsy—Estimates from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey

    PubMed Central

    Kobau, R; Cui, W; Kadima, N; Zack, MM; Sajatovic, M; Kaiboriboon, K; Jobst, B

    2015-01-01

    Objective This study provides population-based estimates of psychosocial health among U.S. adults with epilepsy from the 2010 National Health Interview Survey. Methods Multinomial logistic regression was used to estimate the prevalence of the following measures of psychosocial health among adults with and those without epilepsy: 1) the Kessler-6 scale of Serious Psychological Distress; 2) cognitive limitation; the extent of impairments associated with psychological problems; and work limitation; 3) Social participation; and 4) the Patient Reported Outcome Measurement Information System Global Health scale. Results Compared with adults without epilepsy, adults with epilepsy, especially those with active epilepsy, reported significantly worse psychological health, more cognitive impairment, difficulty in participating in some social activities, and reduced health-related quality of life (HRQOL). Conclusions These disparities in psychosocial health in U.S. adults with epilepsy serve as baseline national estimates of their HRQOL, consistent with Healthy People 2020 national objectives on HRQOL. PMID:25305435

  7. Health risks due to radon in drinking water

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hopke, P.K.; Borak, T.B.; Doull, J.; Cleaver, J.E.; Eckerman, K.F.; Gundersen, L.C.S.; Harley, N.H.; Hess, C.T.; Kinner, N.E.; Kopecky, K.J.; Mckone, T.E.; Sextro, R.G.; Simon, S.L.

    2000-01-01

    Following more than a decade of scientific debate about the setting of a standard for 222Rn in drinking water, Congress established a timetable for the promulgation of a standard in the 1996 Amendments to the Safe Drinking Water Act. As a result of those Amendments, the EPA contracted with the National Academy of Sciences to undertake a risk assessment for exposure to radon in drinking water. In addition, the resulting committee was asked to address several other scientific issues including the national average ambient 222Rn concentration and the increment of 222Rn to the indoor- air concentration arising from the use of drinking water in a home. A new dosimetric analysis of the cancer risk to the stomach from ingestion was performed. The recently reported risk estimates developed by the BEIR VI Committee for inhalation of radon decay products were adopted. Because the 1996 Amendments permit states to develop programs in which mitigation of air- producing health-risk reductions equivalent to that which would be achieved by treating the drinking water, the scientific issues involved in such 'multimedia mitigation programs' were explored.

  8. Health Risk Assessment of Irradiated Topaz

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, Kevin Lyle

    1991-06-01

    Radiation-produced blue topaz, indistinguishable from natural blue topaz, is produced by several different techniques. Published information on radionuclides present, activity levels, equipment necessary to detect activated nuclides and dosimetric assessment is lacking. Using a 60 megawatt nuclear reactor, fifty-one samples of colorless topaz from Nigeria, Sri Lanka, India and Brazil were irradiated with thermal and fast neutron fluences ranging from 1.8 times 10 13 to 9.2 times 1018 neutrons cm^{-2}. Seventeen MeV electrons produced by a linear accelerator were also used to irradiate 36 colorless topaz from the same countries. Gamma ray or positron-emitting nuclides were identified using calibrated well-type NaI or germanium detectors. For germanium detectors having relative efficiencies of approximately 20 percent, an analysis time of one hour or more was needed. Geiger Mueller (G-M) detectors, scintillators (plastic and liquid), gas flow proportional counters, a ZnS detector and autoradiography techniques were used to measure charged particle activity. Isotopes produced from neutron activation included 182Ta, ^ {59}Fe, 46Sc, 51Cr, 54Mn, 124Sb, ^{32 }P, 77As, ^ {183}Ta, 77Ge, 72Ga, and ^{24 }Na. Possible nuclides produced from 17 MeV electron treatment include ^{68 }Ga, 64Cu, ^ {49}Cr, and 18F. Positive identification of the electron activated nuclides was not possible because of the short half-lives involved (<1 day). Of the possible pure beta emitters activated during neutron bombardment, 32P and 35S are the most likely to be produced. The identification of 32P was made using a three point beta absorption analysis with a G-M detector. Skin and breast cancer risk estimates were calculated for various sized topaz containing NRC exempt concentration levels. When compared to a negligible individual risk level (NIRL) of 10^{-7}, the risk of an irradiated topaz in contact with the skin or three inches from breast tissue was a small fraction of the NIRL. At a risk

  9. Inhalation exposure or body burden? Better way of estimating risk--An application of PBPK model.

    PubMed

    Majumdar, Dipanjali; Dutta, Chirasree; Sen, Subha

    2016-01-01

    non-linear relationship. At a higher exposure level such as for occupational exposure of petrol pump workers and drivers, the conventionally estimated risk is higher than risk estimated from internal body burden. Likewise, for environmental exposure the conventional risk estimation predict lower level than estimated in our study. This emphasizes the importance of body burden and to consider it as a key parameter while estimating health risk at varying level of exposure. PMID:26650798

  10. Assessing health risks of synthetic vitreous fibers: an integrative approach.

    PubMed

    McClellan, R O

    1994-12-01

    This paper reviews a tiered approach to acquiring information from multiple experimental systems to understand and assess the potential human health risks of exposure to airborne synthetic fibers. The approach is grounded in the now widely accepted research-risk assessment-risk management paradigm. It involves the acquisition of information that will provide mechanistic linkages within the exposure-dose-response paradigm. It advocates the use of the inhalation route of exposure for developing relevant information for assessing human health risks and calls attention to serious problems encountered using nonphysiologic routes of administration to assess human health risks. PMID:7724844

  11. Estimated incidence and risk factors of sudden unexpected death

    PubMed Central

    Lin, Feng-Chang; Mehta, Neil; Mounsey, Louisa; Nwosu, Anthony; Pursell, Irion; Chung, Eugene H; Mounsey, J Paul; Simpson, Ross J

    2016-01-01

    Objective In this manuscript, we estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for sudden unexpected death in a socioeconomically and racially diverse population in one county in North Carolina. Estimates of the incidence and risk factors contributing to sudden death vary widely. The Sudden Unexpected Death in North Carolina (SUDDEN) project is a population-based investigation of the incidence and potential causes of sudden death. Methods From 3 March 2013 to 2 March 2014, all out-of-hospital deaths in Wake County, North Carolina, were screened to identify presumed sudden unexpected death among free-living residents between the ages of 18 and 64 years. Death certificate, public and medical records were reviewed and adjudicated to confirm sudden unexpected death cases. Results Following adjudication, 190 sudden unexpected deaths including 122 men and 68 women were identified. Estimated incidence was 32.1 per 100 000 person-years overall: 42.7 among men and 22.4 among women. The majority of victims were white, unmarried men over age 55 years, with unwitnessed deaths at home. Hypertension and dyslipidaemia were common in men and women. African-American women dying from sudden unexpected death were over-represented. Women who were under age 55 years with coronary disease accounted for over half of female participants with coronary artery disease. Conclusions The overall estimated incidence of sudden unexpected death may account for approximately 10% of all deaths classified as ‘natural’. Women have a lower estimated incidence of sudden unexpected death than men. However, we found no major differences in age or comorbidities between men and women. African-Americans and young women with coronary disease are at risk for sudden unexpected death. PMID:27042316

  12. Improved risk estimates for carbon tetrachloride. 1998 annual progress report

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.; Springer, D.L.; Thrall, K.D.

    1998-06-01

    'The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the cancer risk associated with human exposure to carbon tetrachloride. Specifically, the toxicokinetics of inhaled carbon tetrachloride is being determined in rats, mice and hamsters. Species differences in the metabolism of carbon tetrachloride by rats, mice and hamsters is being determined in vivo and in vitro using tissues and microsomes from these rodent species and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all studies. The information will be used to improve the current physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for carbon tetrachloride. The authors will also determine whether carbon tetrachloride is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the results of these studies will provide the types of information needed to enable a refined risk estimate for carbon tetrachloride under EPA''s new guidelines for cancer risk assessment.'

  13. A comparison of genetic risk score with family history for estimating prostate cancer risk

    PubMed Central

    Helfand, Brian T

    2016-01-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa) testing is recommended by most authoritative groups for high-risk men including those with a family history of the disease. However, family history information is often limited by patient knowledge and clinician intake, and thus, many men are incorrectly assigned to different risk groups. Alternate methods to assess PCa risk are required. In this review, we discuss how genetic variants, referred to as PCa-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms, can be used to calculate a genetic risk score (GRS). GRS assigns a relatively unique value to all men based on the number of PCa-risk SNPs that an individual carries. This GRS value can provide a more precise estimate of a man's PCa risk. This is particularly relevant in situations when an individual is unaware of his family history. In addition, GRS has utility and can provide a more precise estimate of risk even among men with a positive family history. It can even distinguish risk among relatives with the same degree of family relationships. Taken together, this review serves to provide support for the clinical utility of GRS as an independent test to provide supplemental information to family history. As such, GRS can serve as a platform to help guide-shared decision-making processes regarding the timing and frequency of PCa testing and biopsies. PMID:27004541

  14. Possible health risks from low level exposure to beryllium.

    PubMed

    Stange, A W; Hilmas, D E; Furman, F J

    1996-07-17

    The first case of chronic beryllium disease (CBD) at the Rocky Flats Environmental Technology Site (Rocky Flats) was diagnosed in a machinist in 1984. Rocky Flats, located 16 miles northwest of Denver, Colorado, is part of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons complex. Research and development operations using beryllium began at Rocky Flats in 1953, and beryllium production operations began in 1957. Exposures could have occurred during foundry operations, casting, shearing, rolling, cutting, welding, machining, sanding, polishing, assembly, and chemical analysis operations. The Beryllium Health Surveillance Program (BHSP) was established in June 1991 at Rocky Flats to provide health surveillance for beryllium exposed employees using the Lymphocyte Proliferation Test (LPT) to identify sensitized individuals. Of the 29 cases of CBD and 76 cases of beryllium sensitization identified since 1991, several cases appear to have had only minimal opportunistic exposures to beryllium, since they were employed in administrative functions rather than primary beryllium operations. In conjunction with other health surveillance programs, a questionnaire and interview are administered to obtain detailed work and health histories. These histories, along with other data, are utilized to estimate the extent of an individual's exposure. Additional surveillance is in progress to attempt to characterize the possible risks from intermittent or brief exposures to beryllium in the workplace. PMID:8711738

  15. Catalogue of Risks: Natural, Technical, Social and Health Risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebi, Kristie L.

    2009-01-01

    Financial, geophysical, and terrorist-related disasters have been headline news in the past few months. As amply demonstrated on a regular basis, the recognition and evaluation of risks are skills that could be more widespread. As such, Proske's Catalogue of Risks is timely and of potential interest. The book is a revised and expanded version of an earlier German publication that aims to provide an encyclopedic discussion of issues related to risks and disasters, with a goal of facilitating an understanding of the components and assessment of risk. The book includes chapters that discuss the difficulty of coming to a consensus on a definition of risk, a comprehensive range of risks and disasters, objective risk measures, subjective risk judgment, quality of life measures, and legal aspects of risk. The book ends with an example of applying the concepts discussed to ship impacts against bridges.

  16. Risk estimation based on chromosomal aberrations induced by radiation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Durante, M.; Bonassi, S.; George, K.; Cucinotta, F. A.

    2001-01-01

    The presence of a causal association between the frequency of chromosomal aberrations in peripheral blood lymphocytes and the risk of cancer has been substantiated recently by epidemiological studies. Cytogenetic analyses of crew members of the Mir Space Station have shown that a significant increase in the frequency of chromosomal aberrations can be detected after flight, and that such an increase is likely to be attributed to the radiation exposure. The risk of cancer can be estimated directly from the yields of chromosomal aberrations, taking into account some aspects of individual susceptibility and other factors unrelated to radiation. However, the use of an appropriate technique for the collection and analysis of chromosomes and the choice of the structural aberrations to be measured are crucial in providing sound results. Based on the fraction of aberrant lymphocytes detected before and after flight, the relative risk after a long-term Mir mission is estimated to be about 1.2-1.3. The new technique of mFISH can provide useful insights into the quantification of risk on an individual basis.

  17. A probabilistic assessment of health risks associated with short-term exposure to tropospheric ozone

    SciTech Connect

    Whitfield, R.G; Biller, W.F.; Jusko, M.J.; Keisler, J.M.

    1996-06-01

    The work described in this report is part of a larger risk assessment sponsored by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Earlier efforts developed exposure-response relationships for acute health effects among populations engaged in heavy exertion. Those efforts also developed a probabilistic national ambient air quality standards exposure model and a general methodology for integrating probabilistic exposure-response relation- ships and exposure estimates to calculate overall risk results. Recently published data make it possible to model additional health endpoints (for exposure at moderate exertion), including hospital admissions. New air quality and exposure estimates for alternative national ambient air quality standards for ozone are combined with exposure-response models to produce the risk results for hospital admissions and acute health effects. Sample results explain the methodology and introduce risk output formats.

  18. Ozone risk assessment utilities (ORAMUS) user's manual and tutorial : Volume 2, Chronic health endpoints.

    SciTech Connect

    Clemmons, M. A.; Jusko, M. J.; Whitfield, R. G.

    1998-12-16

    The primary purpose of this manual is to provide instructions on how to install and use the ORAMUS (Ozone Risk AssessMent UtilitieS) software. ORAMUS is a DOS-based software system that allows you to calculate and view risk estimates for health effects attributable to short- and long-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. The system combines exposure estimates with exposure-response relationships and then calculates and displays estimates of the overall risk in the form of probability distributions. ORAMUS allows you to select from three basic models: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. It calculates a wide range of risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, 4 chronic health endpoints, and 3 populations of interest. This manual is a tutorial designed to guide you through a series of steps that will familiarize you with the features of the system. The manual consists of two volumes. Volume 1 addresses acute health endpoints, and Volume 2 covers chronic health endpoints. Acute results were used during the National Ambient Air Quality Standards review process for ozone. Chronic results were not used.

  19. Ozone risk assessment utilities (ORAMUS) user's manual and tutorial : Volume 1, Acute health endpoints.

    SciTech Connect

    Clemmons, M. A.; Jusko, M. J.; Whitfield, R. G.

    1998-12-16

    The primary purpose of this manual is to provide instructions on how to install and use the ORAMUS (Ozone Risk AssessMent UtilitieS) software. ORAMUS is a DOS-based software system that allows you to calculate and view risk estimates for health effects attributable to short- and long-term exposure to tropospheric ozone. The system combines exposure estimates with exposure-response relationships and then calculates and displays estimates of the overall risk in the form of probability distributions. ORAMUS allows you to select from three basic models: headcount risk, benchmark risk, and hospital admissions. It calculates a wide range of risk results for 27 air quality scenarios, 9 urban areas, 33 acute health endpoints, 4 chronic health endpoints, and 3 populations of interest. This manual is a tutorial designed to guide you through a series of steps that will familiarize you with the features of the system. The manual consists of two volumes. Volume 1 addresses acute health endpoints, and Volume 2 covers chronic health endpoints. Acute results were used during the National Ambient Air Quality Standards review process for ozone. Chronic results were not used.

  20. Depleted uranium human health risk assessment, Jefferson Proving Ground, Indiana

    SciTech Connect

    Ebinger, M.H.; Hansen, W.R.

    1994-04-29

    The risk to human health from fragments of depleted uranium (DU) at Jefferson Proving Ground (JPG) was estimated using two types of ecosystem pathway models. A steady-state, model of the JPG area was developed to examine the effects of DU in soils, water, and vegetation on deer that were hunted and consumed by humans. The RESRAD code was also used to estimate the effects of farming the impact area and consuming the products derived from the farm. The steady-state model showed that minimal doses to humans are expected from consumption of deer that inhabit the impact area. Median values for doses to humans range from about 1 mrem ({plus_minus}2.4) to 0.04 mrem ({plus_minus}0.13) and translate to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments (excess cancers) in the population. Monte Carlo simulation of the steady-state model was used to derive the probability distributions from which the median values were drawn. Sensitivity analyses of the steady-state model showed that the amount of DU in airborne dust and, therefore, the amount of DU on the vegetation surface, controlled the amount of DU ingested by deer and by humans. Human doses from the RESRAD estimates ranged from less than 1 mrem/y to about 6.5 mrem/y in a hunting scenario and subsistence fanning scenario, respectively. The human doses exceeded the 100 mrem/y dose limit when drinking water for the farming scenario was obtained from the on-site aquifer that was presumably contaminated with DU. The two farming scenarios were unrealistic land uses because the additional risk to humans due to unexploded ordnance in the impact area was not figured into the risk estimate. The doses estimated with RESRAD translated to less than 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}6} detriments to about 1 {times} 10{sup {minus}3} detriments. The higher risks were associated only with the farming scenario in which drinking water was obtained on-site.

  1. An integrated framework for health and ecological risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Suter, Glenn W. . E-mail: suter.glenn@epa.gov; Vermeire, Theo; Munns, Wayne R.; Sekizawa, Jun

    2005-09-01

    The worldHealth Organization's (WHO's) International Program for Chemical Safety has developed a framework for performing risk assessments that integrate the assessment of risks to human health and risks to nonhuman organisms and ecosystems. The WHO's framework recognizes that stakeholders and risk managers have their own processes that are parallel to the scientific process of risk assessment and may interact with the risk assessment at various points, depending on the context. Integration of health and ecology provides consistent expressions of assessment results, incorporates the interdependence of humans and the environment, uses sentinel organisms, and improves the efficiency and quality of assessments relative to independent human health and ecological risk assessments. The advantage of the framework to toxicologists lies in the opportunity to use understanding of toxicokinetics and toxicodynamics to inform the integrated assessment of all exposed species.

  2. Methodology for estimating extreme winds for probabilistic risk assessments

    SciTech Connect

    Ramsdell, J.V.; Elliott, D.L.; Holladay, C.G.; Hubbe, J.M.

    1986-10-01

    The US Nuclear Reguulatory Commission (NRC) assesses the risks associated with nuclear faciliies using techniques that fall under a generic name of Probabilistic Risk Assessment. In these assessments, potential accident sequences are traced from initiating event to final outcome. At each step of the sequence, a probability of occurrence is assigned to each available alternative. Ultimately, the probability of occurrence of each possible outcome is determined from the probabilities assigned to the initiating events and the alternative paths. Extreme winds are considered in these sequences. As a result, it is necessary to estimate extreme wind probabilities as low as 10/sup -7/yr/sup -1/. When the NRC staff is called on to provide extreme wind estimates, the staff is likely to be subjected to external time and funding constraints. These constraints dictate that the estimates be based on readily available wind data. In general, readily available data will be limited to the data provided by the facility applicant or licensee and the data archived at the National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, North Carolina. This report describes readily available data that can be used in estimating extreme wind probabilities, procedures of screening the data to eliminate erroneous values and for adjusting data to compensate for differences in data collection methods, and statistical methods for making extreme wind estimates. Supporting technical details are presented in several appendices. Estimation of extreme wind probabilities at a given location involves many subjective decisions. The procedures described do not eliminate all of the subjectivity, but they do increase the reproducibility of the analysis. They provide consistent methods for determining probabilities given a set of subjective decisions. By following these procedures, subjective decisions can be identified and documented.

  3. A clinical economics workstation for risk-adjusted health care cost management.

    PubMed Central

    Eisenstein, E. L.; Hales, J. W.

    1995-01-01

    This paper describes a healthcare cost accounting system which is under development at Duke University Medical Center. Our approach differs from current practice in that this system will dynamically adjust its resource usage estimates to compensate for variations in patient risk levels. This adjustment is made possible by introducing a new cost accounting concept, Risk-Adjusted Quantity (RQ). RQ divides case-level resource usage variances into their risk-based component (resource consumption differences attributable to differences in patient risk levels) and their non-risk-based component (resource consumption differences which cannot be attributed to differences in patient risk levels). Because patient risk level is a factor in estimating resource usage, this system is able to simultaneously address the financial and quality dimensions of case cost management. In effect, cost-effectiveness analysis is incorporated into health care cost management. PMID:8563361

  4. The Effect of Genetic Risk Information and Health Risk Assessment on Compliance with Preventive Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bamberg, Richard; And Others

    1990-01-01

    Results from a study of 82 males provide no statistical support and limited encouragement that genetic risk information may motivate persons to make positive changes in preventive health behaviors. Health risk assessments were used to identify subjects at risk for coronary heart disease or lung cancer because of genetic factors. (IAH)

  5. Waste area Grouping 2 Phase I task data report: Human health risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Purucker, S.T.; Douthat, D.M.

    1996-06-01

    This report is one of five reports issued in 1996 that provide follow- up information to the Phase 1 Remedial Investigation (RI) Report for Waste Area Grouping (WAG) 2 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The five reports address areas of concern that could cause potential human health risk and ecological risk within WAG2 at ORNL. The purpose of this report is to present a summary of the human health risk assessment results based on the data collected for the WAG 2 Phase 1 RI. Estimates of risk are provided based on measured concentrations in the surface water, floodplain soil, and sediment of White Oak Creek, Melton Branch, and their tributaries. The human health risk assessment methodology used in this risk assessment is based on Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (RAGS). First, the data for the different media are elevated to determine usability for risk assessment. Second, through the process of selecting chemicals of potential concern (COPCs), contaminants to be considered in the risk assessment are identified for each assessment of exposure potential is performed, and exposure pathways are identified. Subsequently, exposure is estimated quantitatively, and the toxicity of each of the COPCs is determined. The results of these analyses are combined and summarized in a risk characterization.

  6. Risk cross sections and their application to risk estimation in the galactic cosmic-ray environment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Curtis, S. B.; Nealy, J. E.; Wilson, J. W.; Chatterjee, A. (Principal Investigator)

    1995-01-01

    Radiation risk cross sections (i.e. risks per particle fluence) are discussed in the context of estimating the risk of radiation-induced cancer on long-term space flights from the galactic cosmic radiation outside the confines of the earth's magnetic field. Such quantities are useful for handling effects not seen after low-LET radiation. Since appropriate cross-section functions for cancer induction for each particle species are not yet available, the conventional quality factor is used as an approximation to obtain numerical results for risks of excess cancer mortality. Risks are obtained for seven of the most radiosensitive organs as determined by the ICRP [stomach, colon, lung, bone marrow (BFO), bladder, esophagus and breast], beneath 10 g/cm2 aluminum shielding at solar minimum. Spectra are obtained for excess relative risk for each cancer per LET interval by calculating the average fluence-LET spectrum for the organ and converting to risk by multiplying by a factor proportional to R gamma L Q(L) before integrating over L, the unrestricted LET. Here R gamma is the risk coefficient for low-LET radiation (excess relative mortality per Sv) for the particular organ in question. The total risks of excess cancer mortality obtained are 1.3 and 1.1% to female and male crew, respectively, for a 1-year exposure at solar minimum. Uncertainties in these values are estimated to range between factors of 4 and 15 and are dominated by the biological uncertainties in the risk coefficients for low-LET radiation and in the LET (or energy) dependence of the risk cross sections (as approximated by the quality factor). The direct substitution of appropriate risk cross sections will eventually circumvent entirely the need to calculate, measure or use absorbed dose, equivalent dose and quality factor for such a high-energy charged-particle environment.

  7. Perceived and calculated health risks: do the impacts differ

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, B.A.; Williams, R.G.

    1986-01-23

    In many cases of radioactive and hazardous waste management, some members of the general public perceive that human health risks associated with the wastes are higher than the calculated risks. Calculated risks are projections that have been derived from models, and it is these risks that are usually used as the basis for waste management. However, for various reasons, the calculated risks are often considered by the public as too low or inappropriate. The reasons that calculated risks are not perceived as accurate and the factors that affect these perceptions are explored in this paper. Also discussed are the impacts related to the perceived and calculated health risks: what they are, and if and how they differ. The kinds of potential impacts examined are health effects, land value changes, and social, transportation, and economic effects. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of incorporating these different risk perspectives in decisions on waste management.

  8. Simulation of microbial occurrence, exposure and health risks after drinking water treatment processes

    SciTech Connect

    Grubbs, W.D.; Macler, B.A.; Regli, S.

    1992-01-01

    For the development of the Disinfectant/Disinfection Byproduct Rule, EPA wishes to compare human health risks from microbial infection with those from chemical disinfectants and their byproducts. EPA is approaching the problem with the use of computer models that simulate occurrence levels of pathogenic organisms in raw water, then simulate disinfection and production of disinfection byproducts. The microbial and chemical concentrations thus generated are then used to estimate potential health risks. The paper presents the methodology used for these simulations and estimations and discusses the assumptions and uncertainties inherent to the modeling process.

  9. Which modifiable health risks are associated with changes in productivity costs?

    PubMed

    Kirkham, Heather S; Clark, Bobby L; Bolas, Cheryl A; Lewis, Geraint Hywel; Jackson, Allison S; Fisher, Don; Duncan, Ian

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of this retrospective, longitudinal study was to assess longitudinal associations between modifiable health risks and workplace absenteeism and presenteeism and to estimate lost productivity costs. Across the 4-year study period (2007-2010), 17,089 unique employees from a large US computer manufacturer with a highly technical workforce completed at least 1 health risk assessment. Generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the mean population-level absenteeism and presenteeism for 11 modifiable health risks and adjust for 9 sociodemographic and employment-related factors. Because patient age was highly correlated with several other variables, the analysis was stratified by age (<45 vs. ≥45 years). For all ages, poor emotional health, inadequate exercise, tobacco use, and having a body mass index (BMI) greater than 35 (all P<.05) were consistently associated with both absenteeism and presenteeism. Having a BMI over 35 and poor emotional health were associated with the largest impact in absenteeism (0.46 days) and presenteeism (4.03 days), respectively. Younger and older workers had similar associations between health risks and presenteeism; however, hypertension, blood sugar, inadequate exercise, and alcohol were associated (P⋜.01) with greater absenteeism among older but not younger workers. The results suggest that productivity loss is strongly related to emotional health and obesity-related health risks (eg, BMI, exercise) but differs by age. These findings could help prioritize preventive health programs offered by employers at their worksite health centers. Given the aging of the US workforce, keeping older workers healthy and productive will be crucial to remaining competitive in the global economy. (Population Health Management 2015;18:30-38). PMID:25375893

  10. Health risks from acid rain: a Canadian perspective.

    PubMed

    Franklin, C A; Burnett, R T; Paolini, R J; Raizenne, M E

    1985-11-01

    Acidic deposition, commonly referred to as acid rain, is causing serious environmental damage in eastern Canada. The revenues from forest products, tourism and sport fishing are estimated to account for about 8% of the gross national product. The impact on human health is not as clearcut and a multi-department program on the Long-Range Transport of Airborne Pollutants (LRTAP) was approved by the federal government in June 1980. The objectives of the LRTAP program are to reduce wet sulfate deposition to less than 20 kg/ha per year in order to protect moderately sensitive areas. This will require a 50% reduction in Canadian SO2 emissions east of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border and concomitant reductions in the eastern U.S.A. The objectives of the health sector of the program are to assess the risk to health posed by airborne pollutants which are subjected to long-range transport and to monitor the influence of abatement programs. Two major epidemiology studies were undertaken in 1983, one in which the health effects related to acute exposure to transported air pollutants were studied in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children, and another in which the effects of chronic exposure to these pollutants were studied in school children living in towns with high and low levels of pollutants. Preliminary analysis of the data do not indicate major health effects, but definitive conclusions must await final analysis. Studies on the indirect effects of acid deposition on water quality have shown that acidified lake water left standing in the plumbing system can adversely affect water quality and that federally set guidelines for copper and lead are exceeded. Flushing of the system before using the water rectifies the situation. Additional studies are planned to further delineate the magnitude of the health effects of acidified lake water. PMID:4076081

  11. Health risks from acid rain: a Canadian perspective.

    PubMed Central

    Franklin, C A; Burnett, R T; Paolini, R J; Raizenne, M E

    1985-01-01

    Acidic deposition, commonly referred to as acid rain, is causing serious environmental damage in eastern Canada. The revenues from forest products, tourism and sport fishing are estimated to account for about 8% of the gross national product. The impact on human health is not as clearcut and a multi-department program on the Long-Range Transport of Airborne Pollutants (LRTAP) was approved by the federal government in June 1980. The objectives of the LRTAP program are to reduce wet sulfate deposition to less than 20 kg/ha per year in order to protect moderately sensitive areas. This will require a 50% reduction in Canadian SO2 emissions east of the Saskatchewan/Manitoba border and concomitant reductions in the eastern U.S.A. The objectives of the health sector of the program are to assess the risk to health posed by airborne pollutants which are subjected to long-range transport and to monitor the influence of abatement programs. Two major epidemiology studies were undertaken in 1983, one in which the health effects related to acute exposure to transported air pollutants were studied in asthmatic and nonasthmatic children, and another in which the effects of chronic exposure to these pollutants were studied in school children living in towns with high and low levels of pollutants. Preliminary analysis of the data do not indicate major health effects, but definitive conclusions must await final analysis. Studies on the indirect effects of acid deposition on water quality have shown that acidified lake water left standing in the plumbing system can adversely affect water quality and that federally set guidelines for copper and lead are exceeded. Flushing of the system before using the water rectifies the situation. Additional studies are planned to further delineate the magnitude of the health effects of acidified lake water. Images FIGURE 1. FIGURE 2. PMID:4076081

  12. Estimation of value at risk and conditional value at risk using normal mixture distributions model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kamaruzzaman, Zetty Ain; Isa, Zaidi

    2013-04-01

    Normal mixture distributions model has been successfully applied in financial time series analysis. In this paper, we estimate the return distribution, value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) for monthly and weekly rates of returns for FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI) from July 1990 until July 2010 using the two component univariate normal mixture distributions model. First, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in empirical finance where we fit our real data. Second, we present the application of normal mixture distributions model in risk analysis where we apply the normal mixture distributions model to evaluate the value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) with model validation for both risk measures. The empirical results provide evidence that using the two components normal mixture distributions model can fit the data well and can perform better in estimating value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) where it can capture the stylized facts of non-normality and leptokurtosis in returns distribution.

  13. Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation for Tbilisi City

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsereteli, Nino; Alania, Victor; Varazanashvili, Otar; Gugeshashvili, Tengiz; Arabidze, Vakhtang; Arevadze, Nika; Tsereteli, Emili; Gaphrindashvili, Giorgi; Gventcadze, Alexander; Goguadze, Nino; Vephkhvadze, Sophio

    2013-04-01

    The proper assessment of seismic risk is of crucial importance for society protection and city sustainable economic development, as it is the essential part to seismic hazard reduction. Estimation of seismic risk and losses is complicated tasks. There is always knowledge deficiency on real seismic hazard, local site effects, inventory on elements at risk, infrastructure vulnerability, especially for developing countries. Lately great efforts was done in the frame of EMME (earthquake Model for Middle East Region) project, where in the work packages WP1, WP2 , WP3 and WP4 where improved gaps related to seismic hazard assessment and vulnerability analysis. Finely in the frame of work package wp5 "City Scenario" additional work to this direction and detail investigation of local site conditions, active fault (3D) beneath Tbilisi were done. For estimation economic losses the algorithm was prepared taking into account obtained inventory. The long term usage of building is very complex. It relates to the reliability and durability of buildings. The long term usage and durability of a building is determined by the concept of depreciation. Depreciation of an entire building is calculated by summing the products of individual construction unit' depreciation rates and the corresponding value of these units within the building. This method of calculation is based on an assumption that depreciation is proportional to the building's (constructions) useful life. We used this methodology to create a matrix, which provides a way to evaluate the depreciation rates of buildings with different type and construction period and to determine their corresponding value. Finally loss was estimated resulting from shaking 10%, 5% and 2% exceedance probability in 50 years. Loss resulting from scenario earthquake (earthquake with possible maximum magnitude) also where estimated.

  14. Combined methodology for estimating dose rates and health effects from exposure to radioactive pollutants

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Leggett, R.W.; Yalcintas, M.G.

    1980-12-01

    The work described in the report is basically a synthesis of two previously existing computer codes: INREM II, developed at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and CAIRD, developed by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The INREM II code uses contemporary dosimetric methods to estimate doses to specified reference organs due to inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. The CAIRD code employs actuarial life tables to account for competing risks in estimating numbers of health effects resulting from exposure of a cohort to some incremental risk. The combined computer code, referred to as RADRISK, estimates numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 persons due to continuous lifetime inhalation or ingestion of a radionuclide. Also briefly discussed in this report is a method of estimating numbers of health effects in a hypothetical cohort due to continuous lifetime exposure to external radiation. This method employs the CAIRD methodology together with dose conversion factors generated by the computer code DOSFACTER, developed at ORNL; these dose conversion factors are used to estimate dose rates to persons due to radionuclides in the air or on the ground surface. The combination of the life table and dosimetric guidelines for the release of radioactive pollutants to the atmosphere, as required by the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977.

  15. Heritability estimates of performance and health traits of Holstein calves

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The objective of this study was to estimate heritabilities of performance and health traits of Holstein calves. Data were available on 6410 AI sire-identified Holstein heifer calves reared at University of Minnesota, Southern Research and Outreach Center Calf and Heifer Research and Extension facili...

  16. Challenges in Obtaining Estimates of the Risk of Tuberculosis Infection During Overseas Deployment.

    PubMed

    Mancuso, James D; Geurts, Mia

    2015-12-01

    Estimates of the risk of tuberculosis (TB) infection resulting from overseas deployment among U.S. military service members have varied widely, and have been plagued by methodological problems. The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence of TB infection in the U.S. military resulting from deployment. Three populations were examined: 1) a unit of 2,228 soldiers redeploying from Iraq in 2008, 2) a cohort of 1,978 soldiers followed up over 5 years after basic training at Fort Jackson in 2009, and 3) 6,062 participants in the 2011-2012 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). The risk of TB infection in the deployed population was low-0.6% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.1-2.3%)-and was similar to the non-deployed population. The prevalence of latent TB infection (LTBI) in the U.S. population was not significantly different among deployed and non-deployed veterans and those with no military service. The limitations of these retrospective studies highlight the challenge in obtaining valid estimates of risk using retrospective data and the need for a more definitive study. Similar to civilian long-term travelers, risks for TB infection during deployment are focal in nature, and testing should be targeted to only those at increased risk. PMID:26416114

  17. Risk estimation for fast neutrons with regard to solid cancer.

    PubMed

    Kellerer, A M; Walsh, L

    2001-12-01

    In the absence of epidemiological information on the effects of neutrons, their cancer mortality risk coefficient is currently taken as the product of two low-dose extrapolations: the nominal risk coefficient for photons and the presumed maximum relative biological effectiveness of neutrons. This approach is unnecessary. Since linearity in dose is assumed for neutrons at low to moderate effect levels, the risk coefficient can be derived in terms of the excess risk from epidemiological observations at an intermediate dose of gamma rays and an assumed value, R(1), of the neutron RBE relative to this reference dose of gamma rays. Application of this procedure to the A-bomb data requires accounting for the effect of the neutron dose component, which, according to the current dosimetry system, DS86, amounts on average to 11 mGy in the two cities at a total dose of 1 Gy. With R(1) tentatively set to 20 or 50, it is concluded that the neutrons have caused 18% or 35%, respectively, of the total effect at 1 Gy. The excess relative risk (ERR) for neutrons then lies between 8 per Gy and 16 per Gy. Translating these values into risk coefficients in terms of the effective dose, E, requires accounting for the gamma-ray component produced by the neutron field in the human body, which will require a separate analysis. The risk estimate for neutrons will remain essentially unaffected by the current reassessment of the neutron doses in Hiroshima, because the doses are unlikely to change much at the reference dose of 1 Gy. PMID:11741494

  18. Risk factors for mental health problems in school-age children from a community sample.

    PubMed

    Mendes, Ana Vilela; Souza Crippa, José Alexandre de; Souza, Roberto Molina; Loureiro, Sonia Regina

    2013-12-01

    The epidemiological dimension of mental health problems in childhood and its impact warrant new studies. Knowledge about the predictors of mental health in children is scant in developing countries. The present study estimated the prevalence of psychiatric disorders in Brazilian school-age children based on a community sample from primary health care services, with the aim of verifying the predictive value of biological, social, and familial risk factors in children's mental health. The study was performed with 120 children of both genders identified through their mothers. The children's mental health was evaluated by sociodemographic factors and a diagnostic interview conducted with parents. Biological, social, and familial risk factors were evaluated by the Supplemental Questionnaire and Structured Clinical Interview for the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition. Of the 120 children, 45.8 % were diagnosed with at least one mental health disorder. Children with diagnoses of depressive disorder and generalized anxiety disorder presented evidence of greater exposure to risk factors compared with children without these psychiatric diagnoses. Children with more risk factors throughout their lifetime had greater comorbidities compared with children with a lower number of risk factors. The identification of groups exposed to interconnected risk factors represents a priority when planning mental health practices. The strong role of chronic familial risk factors needs to be emphasized because they are a possible target for the prevention of depressive and anxiety disorders. PMID:23212399

  19. Nuclear power — is the health risk too great?

    PubMed Central

    Wynne, B E

    1982-01-01

    Apparently objective and value-free `scientific' assessments of health risks are often highly value-laden and incorporate contentious social assumptions. Mr Wynne exposes some of the complexities underlying attempts to compare the health risks of nuclear and other sources of energy. PMID:7108912

  20. Supplementary Guidance for Conducting Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures

    EPA Science Inventory

    This document is a supplement to the EPA Guidelines for the Health Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures of 1986. The 1986 Guidelines represent the Agency's science policy and are a procedural guide for evaluating data on the health risks from exposures to chemical mixt...

  1. Rural Adolescent Health Risk Behaviors: Age, Gender, and Ethnic Differences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salzman, Stephanie A.; Girvan, James T.

    A survey of health risk behaviors was administered to a representative sample of 7,776 Idaho students in grades 8-12. Respondents were 86% White, 6% Hispanic, 4% American Indian, 3% Asian, and 2% Black. These rural adolescents reported that they had engaged in some health risk behaviors at rates comparable to those of other U.S. adolescents: 57%…

  2. TOXICOPROTEOMICS AND ITS APPLICATION TO HUMAN HEALTH RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    Humans are exposed to a variety of environmental toxicants, and this together with a large number of interacting factors can contribute to an individual's risk for health. To understand the toxic mechanisms and/or modes of action for human health risk assessment, molecular charac...

  3. A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System

    PubMed Central

    Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C.; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J.; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G. Machell

    2016-01-01

    Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

  4. A Methodological Approach to Small Area Estimation for the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.

    PubMed

    Pierannunzi, Carol; Xu, Fang; Wallace, Robyn C; Garvin, William; Greenlund, Kurt J; Bartoli, William; Ford, Derek; Eke, Paul; Town, G Machell

    2016-01-01

    Public health researchers have used a class of statistical methods to calculate prevalence estimates for small geographic areas with few direct observations. Many researchers have used Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) data as a basis for their models. The aims of this study were to 1) describe a new BRFSS small area estimation (SAE) method and 2) investigate the internal and external validity of the BRFSS SAEs it produced. The BRFSS SAE method uses 4 data sets (the BRFSS, the American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample, Nielsen Claritas population totals, and the Missouri Census Geographic Equivalency File) to build a single weighted data set. Our findings indicate that internal and external validity tests were successful across many estimates. The BRFSS SAE method is one of several methods that can be used to produce reliable prevalence estimates in small geographic areas. PMID:27418213

  5. Health risk assessment of exposure to organic matter from the use of reclaimed water in toilets.

    PubMed

    Niu, Zhi-Guang; Zang, Xue; Zhang, Jian-Guo

    2014-05-01

    To estimate the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of six volatile organic compounds (VOCs) found in reclaimed water used for flushing toilets, a probabilistic health risk assessment based on Monte Carlo simulations was used. Before Monte Carlo simulations, the contaminant volatilization model was applied to estimate the concentration of the pollutants in air. Moreover, a questionnaire was used to acquire daily exposure time and the Batch Fit tool of Crystal Ball software was applied to find the best-fitting distribution of a part of the input parameters. The risk analysis indicated that the health risks from six VOCs were lower than the negligible risk level (1 × 10(-8)) in all cases, and the health risk for females was slightly higher than that for males. Overall, exposure to organic pollutants in reclaimed water during toilet flushing does not currently pose a significant carcinogenic risk to humans. In this study, we want to provide some information on the health risk from reclaimed water used for toilet flushing in China and hope that it will be useful to promote the application of reclaimed water in water-deficient areas. PMID:24510531

  6. Leukemia risk associated with benzene exposure in the pliofilm cohort. II. Risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Paxton, M B; Chinchilli, V M; Brett, S M; Rodricks, J V

    1994-04-01

    The detailed work histories of the individual workers composing the Pliofilm cohort represent a unique resource for estimating the dose-response for leukemia that may follow occupational exposure to benzene. In this paper, we report the results of analyzing the updated Pliofilm cohort using the proportional hazards model, a more sophisticated technique that uses more of the available exposure data than the conditional logistic model used by Rinsky et al. The more rigorously defined exposure estimates derived by Paustenbach et al. are consistent with those of Crump and Allen in giving estimates of the slope of the leukemogenic dose-response that are not as steep as the slope resulting from the exposure estimates of Rinsky et al. We consider estimates of 0.3-0.5 additional leukemia deaths per thousand workers with 45 ppm-years of cumulative benzene exposure to be the best estimates currently available of leukemia risk from occupational exposure to benzene. These risks were estimated in the proportional hazards model when the exposure estimates of Crump and Allen or of Paustenbach et al. were used to derive a cumulative concentration-by-time metric. PMID:8008924

  7. Human health risk assessment of triclosan in land-applied biosolids.

    PubMed

    Verslycke, Tim; Mayfield, David B; Tabony, Jade A; Capdevielle, Marie; Slezak, Brian

    2016-09-01

    Triclosan (5-chloro-2-[2,4-dichlorophenoxy]-phenol) is an antimicrobial agent found in a variety of pharmaceutical and personal care products. Numerous studies have examined the occurrence and environmental fate of triclosan in wastewater, biosolids, biosolids-amended soils, and plants and organisms exposed to biosolid-amended soils. Triclosan has a propensity to adhere to organic carbon in biosolids and biosolid-amended soils. Land application of biosolids containing triclosan has the potential to contribute to multiple direct and indirect human health exposure pathways. To estimate exposures and human health risks from biosolid-borne triclosan, a risk assessment was conducted in general accordance with the methodology incorporated into the US Environmental Protection Agency's Part 503 biosolids rule. Human health exposures to biosolid-borne triclosan were estimated on the basis of published empirical data or modeled using upper-end environmental partitioning estimates. Similarly, a range of published triclosan human health toxicity values was evaluated. Margins of safety were estimated for 10 direct and indirect exposure pathways, both individually and combined. The present risk assessment found large margins of safety (>1000 to >100 000) for potential exposures to all pathways, even under the most conservative exposure and toxicity assumptions considered. The human health exposures and risks from biosolid-borne triclosan are concluded to be de minimis. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2358-2367. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:27552397

  8. The Impact of an Incentive-Based Worksite Health Promotion Program on Modifiable Health Risk Factors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poole, Kathleen; Kumpfer, Karol; Pett, Marjorie

    2001-01-01

    Examined the impact of participating in an incentive-based employee health promotion program on modifiable health risk factors over 4 years. Data from physiological and self-report measures indicated that modifiable health risks improved over time (smoking, physical activity, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and seat belt use). Cholesterol…

  9. Mental Health and Health Risk Behaviours of Homeless Adolescents and Youth: A Mixed Methods Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oppong Asante, Kwaku; Meyer-Weitz, Anna; Petersen, Inge

    2016-01-01

    Background: Homeless youth, as a vulnerable population are susceptible to various mental and health risk behaviours. However, less is known of the mental health status of these homeless youth and its role in risky sexual behaviours; neither do we understand the reasons homeless youth give for their engagement in various health risk behaviour.…

  10. Bridging Student Health Risks and Academic Achievement through Comprehensive School Health Programs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Symons, Cynthia Wolford; Cinelli, Bethann; James, Tammy C.; Groff, Patti

    1997-01-01

    Research confirms a direct link between student health risk behavior and education outcomes, education behaviors, and student attitudes. This article discusses barriers to comprehensive school health programming; summarizes relevant information concerning several health-risk behaviors (intentional injuries, diet, physical activity, sexual-risk…

  11. Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

    2013-04-01

    Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times

  12. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    SciTech Connect

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  13. Health Risk Appraisal (HRA) Use in the Classroom.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Petri, Cynthia J.

    Health risk appraisals (HRAs) may be useful in the classroom. Potential benefits include: increasing awareness of potential risk, decreasing feelings of overestimated risks, providing feedback, obtaining group data, and increasing motivation to make positive behavior changes. The HRA process involves three components: administering questionnaires…

  14. [Health risk assessment of coke oven PAHs emissions].

    PubMed

    Bo, Xin; Wang, Gang; Wen, Rou; Zhao, Chun-Li; Wu, Tie; Li, Shi-Bei

    2014-07-01

    Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) produced by coke oven are with strong toxicity and carcinogenicity. Taken typical coke oven of iron and steel enterprises as the case study, the dispersion and migration of 13 kinds of PAHs emitted from coke oven were analyzed using AERMOD dispersion model, the carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks at the receptors within the modeling domain were evaluated using BREEZE Risk Analyst and the Human Health Risk Assessment Protocol for Hazardous Waste Combustion (HHRAP) was followed, the health risks caused by PAHs emission from coke oven were quantitatively evaluated. The results indicated that attention should be paid to the non-carcinogenic risk of naphthalene emission (the maximum value was 0.97). The carcinogenic risks of each single pollutant were all below 1.0E-06, while the maximum value of total carcinogenic risk was 2.65E-06, which may have some influence on the health of local residents. PMID:25244863

  15. Reduction in health risks and disparities with participation in an employer-sponsored health promotion program.

    PubMed

    Burton, Wayne N; Chen, Chin-Yu; Li, Xingquan; Schultz, Alyssa B; Edington, Dee W

    2013-08-01

    There is an increasing awareness among employers and health care providers that health care needs to be tailored to address the diversity of the workforce. Population-based data have shown significant differences in health behaviors and health risks among different racial/ethnic groups in the United States. The purpose of this study was to examine health risks and changes in health risks over time in an employed population at a financial services corporation. This large financial services corporation is naturally concerned about any disparities in health among employees. The study population consists of employees who participated in the organization's medical plan and also the annual health risk appraisal questionnaire in both 2009 and 2010. Significant demographic differences exist among the four ethnic groups studied: whites, African Americans, Hispanics, and Asians. At baseline, African American employees had a significantly higher average number of health risks measured by the health risk appraisal, but they also experienced the greatest improvement in health risks by time 2. There were differences in the health risk profiles of the ethnic groups, with certain risk factors being more prevalent among some ethnicities than among others. The health care costs were not significantly different among the groups studied here. It is likely that other large employers may also find health risk differences among employees belonging to various ethnicities. Future research in this field should seek to understand the reasons behind differences in health among ethnic groups and how best to address them so that all employees can achieve a high level of health and wellness. PMID:23924828

  16. Estimation of Hail Risk in the UK and Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Eric; Parker, Melanie; Higgs, Stephanie

    2016-04-01

    Observations of hail events in Europe, and the UK especially, are relatively limited. In order to determine hail risk it is therefore necessary to use information other than relying purely on the historical record. One such methodology is to leverage reanalysis data, in this case ERA-Interim, along with a numerical model (WRF) to recreate the past state of the atmosphere. Relevant atmospheric properties can be extracted and used in a regression model to determine hail probability for each day contained within the reanalyses. The results presented here show the results of using a regression model based on convective available potential energy, deep level shear and weather type. Combined these parameters represent the probability of severe thunderstorm, and in turn hail, activity. Once the probability of hail occurring on each day is determined this can be used as the basis of a stochastic catalogue which can be used in the estimation of hail risk.

  17. Estimation of risks associated with paediatric cochlear implantation.

    PubMed

    Johnston, J Cyne; Smith, Andrée Durieux; Fitzpatrick, Elizabeth; O'Connor, Annette; Angus, Douglas; Benzies, Karen; Schramm, David

    2010-09-01

    The objectives of this study were to estimate the rates of complications associated with paediatric cochlear implantation use: a) at one Canadian cochlear implant (CI) centre, and b) in the published literature. It comprised a retrospective hospital-based chart review and a concurrent review of complications in the published literature. There were 224 children who had undergone surgery from 1994 to June 2007. Results indicate that the rates of complications at the local Canadian paediatric CI centre are not significantly different from the literature rates for all examined complication types. This hospital-based retrospective chart review and review of the literature provide readers with an estimation of the risks to aid in evidence-based decision-making surrounding paediatric cochlear implantation. PMID:19655302

  18. Health risks from computed tomographic screening.

    PubMed

    Krantz, Seth B; Meyers, Bryan F

    2015-05-01

    Results of the recent National Lung Cancer Screening Trial show a significant survival benefit for annual screening with a low-dose computed tomographic (CT) scan in high-risk individuals. This result has led the US Preventive Services Task Force to recommend annual low-dose CT scans for this at-risk population. Less well characterized are the risks from screening. The primary risks from screening are radiation exposure, false-positive results and unnecessary diagnostic and therapeutic procedures, overdiagnosis and overtreatment, and increased psychological distress. This article reviews these risks, which must be considered and weighed against the benefits when discussing enrollment with patients. PMID:25901559

  19. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  20. Estimating the risks of smoking, air pollution, and passive smoke on acute respiratory conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Ostro, B.D. )

    1989-06-01

    Five years of the annual Health Interview Survey, conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics, are used to estimate the effects of air pollution, smoking, and environmental tobacco smoke on respiratory restrictions in activity for adults, and bed disability for children. After adjusting for several socioeconomic factors, the multiple regression estimates indicate that an independent and statistically significant association exists between these three forms of air pollution and respiratory morbidity. The comparative risks of these exposures are computed and the plausibility of the relative risks is examined by comparing the equivalent doses with actual measurements of exposure taken in the homes of smokers. The results indicate that: (1) smokers will have a 55-75% excess in days with respiratory conditions severe enough to cause reductions in normal activity; (2) a 1 microgram increase in fine particulate matter air pollution is associated with a 3% excess in acute respiratory disease; and (3) a pack-a-day smoker will increase respiratory restricted days for a nonsmoking spouse by 20% and increase the number of bed disability days for young children living in the household by 20%. The results also indicate that the estimates of the effects of secondhand smoking on children are improved when the mother's work status is known and incorporated into the exposure estimate.

  1. A quantitative approach for integrating multiple lines of evidence for the evaluation of environmental health risks

    PubMed Central

    Schleier III, Jerome J.; Marshall, Lucy A.; Davis, Ryan S.

    2015-01-01

    Decision analysis often considers multiple lines of evidence during the decision making process. Researchers and government agencies have advocated for quantitative weight-of-evidence approaches in which multiple lines of evidence can be considered when estimating risk. Therefore, we utilized Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo to integrate several human-health risk assessment, biomonitoring, and epidemiology studies that have been conducted for two common insecticides (malathion and permethrin) used for adult mosquito management to generate an overall estimate of risk quotient (RQ). The utility of the Bayesian inference for risk management is that the estimated risk represents a probability distribution from which the probability of exceeding a threshold can be estimated. The mean RQs after all studies were incorporated were 0.4386, with a variance of 0.0163 for malathion and 0.3281 with a variance of 0.0083 for permethrin. After taking into account all of the evidence available on the risks of ULV insecticides, the probability that malathion or permethrin would exceed a level of concern was less than 0.0001. Bayesian estimates can substantially improve decisions by allowing decision makers to estimate the probability that a risk will exceed a level of concern by considering seemingly disparate lines of evidence. PMID:25648367

  2. 75 FR 70009 - Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-11-16

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Development of Health Risk Assessment Guidance AGENCY: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Department of Health and Human Services...

  3. Health Promotion and Risk Behaviors among Adolescents in Turkey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ortabag, Tulay; Ozdemir, Serpil; Bakir, Bilal; Tosun, Nuran

    2011-01-01

    Adolescents experience the onset and development of several health-related behaviors. The purpose of this study is to determine health risk and promotion behaviors of adolescents between the ages of 11 and 19 who were attending and to test the reliability and validity analysis of the Turkish version of Adolescent Health Promotion Scale (AHPS). The…

  4. A needs-based method for estimating the behavioral health staff needs of community health centers

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Federally Qualified Health Centers are expanding to increase access for millions of more Americans with a goal of doubling capacity to serve 40 million people. Health centers provide a lot of behavioral health services but many have difficulty accessing mental health and substance use professionals for their patients. To meet the needs of the underserved and newly insured it is important to better estimate how many behavioral health professionals are needed. Methods Using health center staffing data and behavioral health service patterns from the 2010 Uniform Data System and the 2010 National Survey on Drug Use and Health, we estimated the number of patients likely to need behavioral health care by insurance type, the number of visits likely needed by health center patients annually, and the number of full time equivalent providers needed to serve them. Results More than 2.5 million patients, 12 or older, with mild or moderate mental illness, and more than 357,000 with substance abuse disorders, may have gone without needed behavioral health services in 2010. This level of need would have required more than 11,600 full time providers. This translates to approximately 0.9 licensed mental health provider FTE, 0.1 FTE psychiatrist, 0.4 FTE other mental health staff, and 0.3 FTE substance abuse provider per 2,500 patients. These estimates suggest that 90% of current centers could not access mental health services or provide substance abuse services to fully meet patients’ needs in 2010. If needs are similar after health center expansion, more than 27,000 full time behavioral health providers will be needed to serve 40 million medical patients, and grantees will need to increase behavioral health staff more than four-fold. Conclusions More behavioral health is seen in primary care than in any other setting, and health center clients have greater behavioral health needs than typical primary care patients. Most health centers needed additional behavioral

  5. Human health risk assessment related to contaminated land: state of the art.

    PubMed

    Swartjes, F A

    2015-08-01

    Exposure of humans to contaminants from contaminated land may result in many types of health damage ranging from relatively innocent symptoms such as skin eruption or nausea, on up to cancer or even death. Human health protection is generally considered as a major protection target. State-of-the-art possibilities and limitations of human health risk assessment tools are described in this paper. Human health risk assessment includes two different activities, i.e. the exposure assessment and the hazard assessment. The combination of these is called the risk characterization, which results in an appraisal of the contaminated land. Exposure assessment covers a smart combination of calculations, using exposure models, and measurements in contact media and body liquids and tissue (biomonitoring). Regarding the time frame represented by exposure estimates, biomonitoring generally relates to exposure history, measurements in contact media to actual exposures, while exposure calculations enable a focus on exposure in future situations. The hazard assessment, which is different for contaminants with or without a threshold for effects, results in a critical exposure value. Good human health risk assessment practice accounts for tiered approaches and multiple lines of evidence. Specific attention is given here to phenomena such as the time factor in human health risk assessment, suitability for the local situation, background exposure, combined exposure and harmonization of human health risk assessment tools. PMID:25809961

  6. Kalman Filtering with Inequality Constraints for Turbofan Engine Health Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops two analytic methods of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The first method is a general technique of using hard constraints to enforce inequalities on the state variable estimates. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The second method uses soft constraints to estimate state variables that are known to vary slowly with time. (Soft constraints are constraints that are required to be approximately satisfied rather than exactly satisfied.) The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results. The use of the algorithm is demonstrated on a linearized simulation of a turbofan engine to estimate health parameters. The turbofan engine model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

  7. Projection models for health-effects assessment in populations exposed to radioactive and nonradioactive pollutants. Volume I. Introduction to the SPAHR demographic model for health risk

    SciTech Connect

    Collins, J.J.; Lundy, R.T.; Grahn, D.; Ginevan, M.E.

    1982-09-01

    The Simulation Package for the Analysis of Health Risk (SPAHR) is a computer software package based upon a demographic model for health risk projections. The model extends several health risk projection models by making realistic assumptions about the population at risk, and thus represents a distinct improvement over previous models. Complete documentation for use of SPAHR is contained in this five-volume publication. The demographic model in SPAHR estimates population response to environmental toxic exposures. Latency of response, changing dose level over time, competing risks from other causes of death, and population structure can be incorporated into SPAHR to project health risks. Risks are measured by morbid years, number of deaths, and loss of life expectancy. Comparisons of estimates of excess deaths demonstrate that previous health risk projection models may have underestimated excess deaths by a factor of from 2 to 10, depending on the pollutant and the exposure scenario. The software supporting the use of the demographic model is designed to be user oriented. Complex risk projections are made by responding to a series of prompts generated by the package. The flexibility and ease of use of SPAHR make it an important contribution to existing models and software packages. The first volume presents the theory behind the SPAHR health risk projection model and several applications of the model to actual pollution episodes. The elements required for an effective health risk projection model are specified, and the models that have been used to date in health risk projections are outlined. These are compared with the demographic model, whose formulation is described in detail. Examples of the application of air pollution and radiation dose-response functions are included in order to demonstrate the estimation of future mortality and morbidity levels and the range of variation in excess deaths that occurs when populations structure is changed.

  8. Survivorship models for estimating the risk of decompression sickness.

    PubMed

    Kumar, K V; Powell, M R

    1994-07-01

    Several approaches have been used for modeling the incidence of decompression sickness (DCS) such as Hill's dose-response and logistic regression. Most of these methods do not include the time-to-onset information in the model. Survival analysis (failure time analysis) is appropriate when the time to onset of an event is of interest. The applicability of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS is illustrated by using data obtained from hypobaric chamber exposures simulating extravehicular activities (n = 426). Univariate analysis of incidence-free survival proportions were obtained for Doppler-detectable circulating microbubbles (CMB), symptoms of DCS and test aborts. A log-linear failure time regression model with 360-min half-time tissue ratio (TR) as covariate was constructed, and estimated probabilities for various TR values were calculated. Further regression analysis by including CMB status in this model showed significant improvement (p < 0.05) in the estimation of DCS over the previous model. Since DCS is dependent on the exposure pressure as well as the duration of exposure, we recommend the use of survival analysis for modeling the risk of DCS. PMID:7945136

  9. Developing a risk-based air quality health index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wong, Tze Wai; Tam, Wilson Wai San; Yu, Ignatius Tak Sun; Lau, Alexis Kai Hon; Pang, Sik Wing; Wong, Andromeda H. S.

    2013-09-01

    We developed a risk-based, multi-pollutant air quality health index (AQHI) reporting system in Hong Kong, based on the Canadian approach. We performed time series studies to obtain the relative risks of hospital admissions for respiratory and cardiovascular diseases associated with four air pollutants: sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm (PM10). We then calculated the sum of excess risks of the hospital admissions associated with these air pollutants. The cut-off points of the summed excess risk, for the issuance of different health warnings, were based on the concentrations of these pollutants recommended as short-term Air Quality Guidelines by the World Health Organization. The excess risks were adjusted downwards for young children and the elderly. Health risk was grouped into five categories and sub-divided into eleven bands, with equal increments in excess risk from band 1 up to band 10 (the 11th band is 'band 10+'). We developed health warning messages for the general public, including at-risk groups: young children, the elderly, and people with pre-existing cardiac or respiratory diseases. The new system addressed two major shortcomings of the current standard-based system; namely, the time lag between a sudden rise in air pollutant concentrations and the issue of a health warning, and the reliance on one dominant pollutant to calculate the index. Hence, the AQHI represents an improvement over Hong Kong's existing air pollution index.

  10. Pathways to Health Risk Exposure in Adult Film Performers

    PubMed Central

    Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2008-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers’ exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18709554

  11. Pathways to health risk exposure in adult film performers.

    PubMed

    Grudzen, Corita R; Ryan, Gery; Margold, William; Torres, Jacqueline; Gelberg, Lillian

    2009-01-01

    Despite being part of a large and legal industry in Los Angeles, little is known about adult film performers' exposure to health risks and when and how these risks might occur. The objective was to identify exposure to physical, mental, and social health risks and the pathways to such risks among adult film performers and to determine how risks differ between different types of performers, such as men and women. Semi-structured in-depth interviews were conducted with 18 female and ten male performers as well as two key informants from the industry. Performers and key informants were recruited through Protecting Adult Welfare, adult film venues, and snowball sampling. Performers engaged in risky health behaviors that included high-risk sexual acts that are unprotected, substance abuse, and body enhancement. They are exposed to physical trauma on the film set. Many entered and left the industry with financial insecurity and suffered from mental health problems. Women were more likely than men to be exposed to health risks. Adult film performers, especially women, are exposed to health risks that accumulate over time and that are not limited to sexually transmitted diseases. PMID:18709554

  12. Occupational health and safety: Designing and building with MACBETH a value risk-matrix for evaluating health and safety risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lopes, D. F.; Oliveira, M. D.; Costa, C. A. Bana e.

    2015-05-01

    Risk matrices (RMs) are commonly used to evaluate health and safety risks. Nonetheless, they violate some theoretical principles that compromise their feasibility and use. This study describes how multiple criteria decision analysis methods have been used to improve the design and the deployment of RMs to evaluate health and safety risks at the Occupational Health and Safety Unit (OHSU) of the Regional Health Administration of Lisbon and Tagus Valley. ‘Value risk-matrices’ (VRMs) are built with the MACBETH approach in four modelling steps: a) structuring risk impacts, involving the construction of descriptors of impact that link risk events with health impacts and are informed by scientific evidence; b) generating a value measurement scale of risk impacts, by applying the MACBETH-Choquet procedure; c) building a system for eliciting subjective probabilities that makes use of a numerical probability scale that was constructed with MACBETH qualitative judgments on likelihood; d) and defining a classification colouring scheme for the VRM. A VRM built with OHSU members was implemented in a decision support system which will be used by OHSU members to evaluate health and safety risks and to identify risk mitigation actions.

  13. Ergogenic risks elevate health risks in young athletes.

    PubMed

    Giesemer, Bernard A

    2003-11-01

    Young athletes may use many products and techniques in an attempt to increase competitive edge in sports. The doping techniques that were previously seen in elite adult athletes are now being noted in increasingly competitive elementary, middle, and high school male and female athletes. The risk of significant morbidity and mortality associated with the use of these products is substantially increased when other risk factors are present. The risk for heat-related illness and possible heat-related mortality is higher in physiologically immature, overweight, and poorly conditioned young athletes. These are the same athletes who may be more likely to use stimulant or anabolic steroid products in attempts to catch up on training and conditioning regimens, improve their competitive advantage, or improve their physiques. The risk for heat-related incidents is higher in young athletes who are predisposed to these events because of a family trait or a previous heat-related adverse event in their own medical histories. Combinations of these factors (eg, high osmotic dietary supplements, stimulants, pre-existing medical factors, adverse ambient conditions) may significantly increase a young athlete's chances of a serious, potentially fatal event. Similarly, the risk of cardiac-related sudden death in a young athlete is significantly increased by the use of stimulants such as methamphetamine. As is the case with heat-related adverse events, the risk of cardiac-related morbidity and mortality may be significantly increased when other variables are present, such as the presence of other medications and pre-existing medical factors. As athletic competition becomes increasingly intense for younger athletes, pediatricians need to be aware of the possibility that their young patients are using ergogenic aids that may increase the risk for sudden death significantly. Pediatricians should be aware of the products available to these young competitors, and of the co-factors that

  14. Estimating doses and risks associated with decontamination and decommissioning activities using the CRRIS

    SciTech Connect

    Miller, C.W.; Sjoreen, A.L.; Cotter, S.J.

    1986-01-01

    The Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System (CRRIS) is applicable to determining doses and risks from a variety of decontamination and decommissioning activities. For example, concentrations in air from resuspended radionuclides initially deposited on the ground surface and the concentrations of deposited radionuclides in various soil layers can be obtained. The CRRIS will estimate exposure to radon and its progeny in terms of working-level months, and will compute the resulting health risks. The CRRIS consists of seven integrated computer codes that stand alone or are run as a system to calculate environmental transport, doses, and risks. PRIMUS output provides other CRRIS codes the capability to handle radionuclide decay chains. ANEMOS and RETADD-II calculate atmospheric dispersion and deposition for local and regional distances, respectively. Multiple ANEMOS runs for sources within a small area are combined on a master grid by SUMIT. MLSOIL is used to estimate effective ground surface concentrations for dose computations. TERRA calculates food chain transport, and ANDROS calculates individual or population exposures, doses, and risks. Applications of the CRRIS to decontamination problems are discussed. 16 refs., 1 fig.

  15. Estimates of radiological risk from depleted uranium weapons in war scenarios.

    PubMed

    Durante, Marco; Pugliese, Mariagabriella

    2002-01-01

    Several weapons used during the recent conflict in Yugoslavia contain depleted uranium, including missiles and armor-piercing incendiary rounds. Health concern is related to the use of these weapons, because of the heavy-metal toxicity and radioactivity of uranium. Although chemical toxicity is considered the more important source of health risk related to uranium, radiation exposure has been allegedly related to cancers among veterans of the Balkan conflict, and uranium munitions are a possible source of contamination in the environment. Actual measurements of radioactive contamination are needed to assess the risk. In this paper, a computer simulation is proposed to estimate radiological risk related to different exposure scenarios. Dose caused by inhalation of radioactive aerosols and ground contamination induced by Tomahawk missile impact are simulated using a Gaussian plume model (HOTSPOT code). Environmental contamination and committed dose to the population resident in contaminated areas are predicted by a food-web model (RESRAD code). Small values of committed effective dose equivalent appear to be associated with missile impacts (50-y CEDE < 5 mSv), or population exposure by water-independent pathways (50-y CEDE < 80 mSv). The greatest hazard is related to the water contamination in conditions of effective leaching of uranium in the groundwater (50-y CEDE < 400 mSv). Even in this worst case scenario, the chemical toxicity largely predominates over radiological risk. These computer simulations suggest that little radiological risk is associated to the use of depleted uranium weapons. PMID:11768794

  16. The Relationship of Depression to Health Risk Behaviors and Health Perceptions in Korean College Students.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kim, Oksoo

    2002-01-01

    Investigates the relationship of depression to health risk behaviors and health perceptions in Korean college students. The level of students' depression predicted alcohol consumption, symptom pattern, and physical health. Students who were more depressed reported more symptoms and perceived their health as worse than those who were less…

  17. Health Risk Reduction Programs in Employer-Sponsored Health Plans: Part II—Law and Ethics

    PubMed Central

    Rothstein, Mark A.; Harrell, Heather L.

    2011-01-01

    Objective We sought to examine the legal and ethical implications of workplace health risk reduction programs (HRRPs) using health risk assessments, individually focused risk reduction, and financial incentives to promote compliance. Methods We conducted a literature review, analyzed relevant statutes and regulations, and considered the effects of these programs on employee health privacy. Results A variety of laws regulate HRRPs, and there is little evidence that employer-sponsored HRRPs violate these provisions; infringement on individual health privacy is more difficult to assess. Conclusion Although current laws permit a wide range of employer health promotion activities, HRRPs also may entail largely unquantifiable costs to employee privacy and related interests. PMID:19625971

  18. Multi-pathway assessment of human health risk posed by polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons.

    PubMed

    Qu, Changsheng; Li, Bing; Wu, Haisuo; Wang, Shui; Giesy, John P

    2015-06-01

    To assess aggregate exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) via several environmental media and pathways, a probabilistic framework for multi-pathway health risk assessment that integrates PAHs potency equivalence factors, risk estimation modeling, and Monte Carlo simulation was applied to a case study in Nanjing, which is an important industrial city in China. Incremental lifetime risk of additional cancers posed by exposure to 16 USEPA priority PAHs in air, water, soil, and fish was assessed. Risks to three age groups, infants, children, and adults, through various exposure pathways, including oral ingestion, dermal absorption, and inhalation, were estimated. Results of the analysis of risk indicated that B[a]P, B[b]F, and BA were the predominant PAHs pollutants in Nanjing. Risk of additional cancer for local adults was on average 2.62 × 10(-5). The risks were primarily due to ingestion of fish and inhalation, which contributed 99 % of the total risks. By contrast, risk to infants was essentially negligible. Results of a sensitivity analysis indicated that the input variables of concentration of PAHs in fish (C f), the body weight (BW), and the ingestion rate of fish (IRf) were the major influences on estimates of risks. PMID:25571860

  19. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  20. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Mansfield, Theodore J.; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    be avoided if the entire population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas. PMID:27200327

  1. Estimating Active Transportation Behaviors to Support Health Impact Assessment in the United States.

    PubMed

    Mansfield, Theodore J; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

    2016-01-01

    population walked 37.4 min per week for transportation (the amount of transportation walking observed in previous US studies of walkable neighborhoods). The approach developed here is useful both for estimating baseline behaviors in transportation HIAs and for comparing the magnitude of risks associated with physical inactivity to other competing health risks in urban areas. PMID:27200327

  2. Assessing the Risks to Human Health in Heterogeneous Aquifers under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, Felipe

    2015-04-01

    Reliable quantification of human health risk from toxic chemicals present in groundwater is a challenging task. The main difficulty relies on the fact that many of the components that constitute human health risk assessment are uncertain and requires interdisciplinary knowledge. Understanding the impact from each of these components in risk estimation can provide guidance for decision makers to manage contaminated sites and best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. This presentation will focus on the impact of aquifer heterogeneity in human health risk. Spatial heterogeneity of the hydrogeological properties can lead to the formation of preferential flow channels which control the plume spreading rates and travel time statistics, both which are critical in assessing the risk level. By making use of an integrated hydrogeological-health stochastic framework, the significance of characteristic length scales (e.g. characterizing flow, transport and sampling devices) in both controlling the uncertainty of health risk and determining data needs is highlighted. Through a series of examples, we show how fundamental knowledge on the main physical mechanisms affecting solute pathways are necessary to understand the human health response to varying drivers.

  3. Mapping heatwave health risk at the community level for public health action

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Climate change poses unprecedented challenges, ranging from global and local policy challenges to personal and social action. Heat-related deaths are largely preventable, but interventions for the most vulnerable populations need improvement. Therefore, the prior identification of high risk areas at the community level is required to better inform planning and prevention. We aimed to demonstrate a simple and flexible conceptual framework relying upon satellite thermal data and other digital data with the goal of easily reproducing this framework in a variety of urban configurations. Results The study area encompasses Rennes, a medium-sized French city. A Landsat ETM + image (60 m resolution) acquired during a localized heatwave (June 2001) was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and derive a hazard index. A land-use regression model was performed to predict the LST. Vulnerability was assessed through census data describing four dimensions (socio-economic status, extreme age, population density and building obsolescence). Then, hazard and vulnerability indices were combined to deliver a heatwave health risk index. The LST patterns were quite heterogeneous, reflecting the land cover mosaic inside the city boundary, with hotspots of elevated temperature mainly observed in the city center. A spatial error regression model was highly predictive of the spatial variation in the LST (R2 = 0.87) and was parsimonious. Three land cover descriptors (NDVI, vegetation and water fractions) were negatively linked with the LST. A sensitivity analysis (based on an image acquired on July 2000) yielded similar results. Southern areas exhibited the most vulnerability, although some pockets of higher vulnerability were observed northeast and west of the city. The heatwave health risk map showed evidence of infra-city spatial clustering, with the highest risks observed in a north–south central band. Another sensitivity analysis gave a very high

  4. Health Risks Information Reaches Secondary School Smokers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ridout, Fran; Charlton, Anne; Hutchison, Iain

    2008-01-01

    This cross-sectional study aimed to assess smoking prevention and cessation education delivered as part of the UK National Curriculum and to evaluate the relative effectiveness of health, social influence and other/non-health components. In all, 1789 students aged 11-15 from 12 secondary schools completed online surveys assessing smoking status,…

  5. Moving towards a new paradigm for global flood risk estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Troy, Tara J.; Devineni, Naresh; Lima, Carlos; Lall, Upmanu

    2013-04-01

    model is implemented at a finer resolution (<=1km) in order to more accurately model streamflow under flood conditions and estimate inundation. This approach allows for efficient computational simulation of the hydrology when not under potential for flooding with high-resolution flood wave modeling when there is flooding potential. We demonstrate the results of this flood risk estimation system for the Ohio River basin in the United States, a large river basin that is historically prone to flooding, with the intention of using it to do global flood risk assessment.

  6. Direct estimates of low-level radiation risks of lung cancer at two NRC-compliant nuclear installations: why are the new risk estimates 20 to 200 times the old official estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Bross, I. D.; Driscoll, D. L.

    1981-01-01

    An official report on the health hazards to nuclear submarine workers at the Portsmouth Naval Shipyard (PNS), who were exposed to low-level ionizing radiation, was based on a casual inspection of the data and not on statistical analyses of the dosage-response relationships. When these analyses are done, serious hazards from lung cancer and other causes of death are shown. As a result of the recent studies on nuclear workers, the new risk estimates have been found to be much higher than the official estimates currently used in setting NRC permissible levels. The official BEIR estimates are about one lung cancer death per year per million persons per rem[s]. The PNS data show 189 lung cancer deaths per year per million persons per rem. PMID:7336762

  7. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  8. 41 CFR 102-80.50 - Are Federal agencies responsible for identifying/estimating risks and for appropriate risk...

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... (Continued) FEDERAL MANAGEMENT REGULATION REAL PROPERTY 80-SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL MANAGEMENT Safety and Environmental Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.50 Are Federal agencies responsible for... identify and estimate safety and environmental management risks and appropriate risk reduction...

  9. Characterizing public health and microbial risks due to water contaminants

    EPA Science Inventory

    This research track evaluates risks associated with the occurrence of waterborne disease in the population. A clear understanding of the health burden associated with exposure to contaminated drinking water is critical to developing regulations that are protective of public healt...

  10. Uncertainties associated with assessing the public health risk from Legionella

    PubMed Central

    Whiley, Harriet; Keegan, Alexandra; Fallowfield, Howard; Ross, Kirstin

    2014-01-01

    Legionella is an opportunistic pathogen of public health concern. Current regulatory and management guidelines for the control of this organism are informed by risk assessments. However, there are many unanswered questions and uncertainties regarding Legionella epidemiology, strain infectivity, infectious dose, and detection methods. This review follows the EnHealth Risk Assessment Framework, to examine the current information available regarding Legionella risk and discuss the uncertainties and assumptions. This review can be used as a tool for understanding the uncertainties associated with Legionella risk assessment. It also serves to highlight the areas of Legionella research that require future focus. Improvement of these uncertainties will provide information to enhance risk management practices for Legionella, potentially improving public health protection and reducing the economic costs by streamlining current management practices. PMID:25309526

  11. Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System for Assessing Doses and Health Risks from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides.

    SciTech Connect

    RAINE, III, DUDLEY A.

    1998-11-10

    Version: 00 CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both the released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and by the RETADD-II computer code for regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides.

  12. Computerized Radiological Risk Investigation System for Assessing Doses and Health Risks from Atmospheric Releases of Radionuclides.

    Energy Science and Technology Software Center (ESTSC)

    1998-11-10

    Version: 00 CRRIS consists of eight fully integrated computer codes which calculate environmental transport of atmospheric releases of radionuclides and resulting doses and health risks to individuals or populations. Each code may be used alone for various assessment applications. Because of its modular structure, CRRIS allows assessments to be tailored to the user's needs. Radionuclides are handled by CRRIS either in terms of the released radionuclides or the exposure radionuclides which consist of both themore » released nuclides and decay products that build up during environmental transport. Atmospheric dispersion calculations are performed by the ANEMOS computer code for distances less than 100 km and by the RETADD-II computer code for regional-scale distances. Both codes estimate annual-average air concentrations and ground deposition rates by location. SUMIT will translate and scale multiple ANEMOS runs onto a master grid. TERRA reads radionuclide air concentrations and deposition rates to estimate concentrations of radionuclides in food and surface soil. Radiologic decay and ingrowth, soil leaching, and transport through the food chain are included in the calculations. MLSOIL computes an effective radionuclide ground-surface concentration to be used in computing external health effects. The five-layer model of radionuclide transport through soil in MLSOIL provides an alternative to the single-layer model used in TERRA. DFSOIL computes dose factors used in MLSOIL to compute doses from the five soil layers and from the ground surface. ANDROS reads environmental concentrations of radionuclides computed by the other CRRIS codes and produces tables of doses and risks to individuals or populations from atmospheric releases of radionuclides.« less

  13. Analysis of Diesel Particulate Matter Health Risk Disparities in Selected US Harbor Areas

    PubMed Central

    Hartley, Seth; Holder, Chris

    2011-01-01

    Objectives. People near major transportation emissions sources experience higher exposure to hazardous pollutants. We present population size and demographic composition estimates for exposure to diesel particulate matter (DPM) exhaust from US harbor activities. Methods. We examined 43 US marine harbor areas to determine outdoor, ambient concentrations from port-related DPM emissions and then determined intake fractions of those emissions in each harbor area. We estimated the distribution of health risk by combining ambient concentrations with exposure and carcinogenic risk factors. We assessed demographic differences by stratifying the health risks by race/ethnicity and income. Results. Intake fractions for 42 of the harbor areas ranged from 0.02 × 10−6 to 3.66 × 10−6. A DPM-affected population of more than 4 million has a risk level greater than 100 per million; a population of 41 million, a risk level greater than 10 per million. Most exposures occur in a small number of marine harbor areas. Low-income households and both Hispanics and non-Hispanic Blacks are overrepresented in the affected populations. Conclusions. The most important factor for predicting DPM intake fractions for harbor activities is the proximate population density. The largest uncertainty in predicting DPM carcinogenic health risk is the carcinogenic inhalation unit risk factor. PMID:21836118

  14. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection

    PubMed Central

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience. PMID:27069825

  15. Estimating risks of importation and local transmission of Zika virus infection.

    PubMed

    Nah, Kyeongah; Mizumoto, Kenji; Miyamatsu, Yuichiro; Yasuda, Yohei; Kinoshita, Ryo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

    2016-01-01

    Background. An international spread of Zika virus (ZIKV) infection has attracted global attention. ZIKV is conveyed by a mosquito vector, Aedes species, which also acts as the vector species of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Methods. Arrival time of ZIKV importation (i.e., the time at which the first imported case was diagnosed) in each imported country was collected from publicly available data sources. Employing a survival analysis model in which the hazard is an inverse function of the effective distance as informed by the airline transportation network data, and using dengue and chikungunya virus transmission data, risks of importation and local transmission were estimated. Results. A total of 78 countries with imported case(s) have been identified, with the arrival time ranging from 1 to 44 weeks since the first ZIKV was identified in Brazil, 2015. Whereas the risk of importation was well explained by the airline transportation network data, the risk of local transmission appeared to be best captured by additionally accounting for the presence of dengue and chikungunya viruses. Discussion. The risk of importation may be high given continued global travel of mildly infected travelers but, considering that the public health concerns over ZIKV infection stems from microcephaly, it is more important to focus on the risk of local and widespread transmission that could involve pregnant women. The predicted risk of local transmission was frequently seen in tropical and subtropical countries with dengue or chikungunya epidemic experience. PMID:27069825

  16. Declining bioavailability and inappropriate estimation of risk of persistent compounds

    SciTech Connect

    Kelsey, J.W.; Alexander, M.

    1997-03-01

    Earthworms (Eisenia foetida) assimilated decreasing amounts of atrazine, phenanthrene, and naphthalene that had been incubated for increasing periods of time in sterile soil. The amount of atrazine and phenanthrene removed from soil by mild extractants also decreased with time. The declines in bioavailability of the three compounds to earthworms and of naphthalene to bacteria were not reflected by analysis involving vigorous methods of solvent extraction; similar results for bioavailability of phenanthrene and 4-nitrophenol to bacteria were obtained in a previous study conducted at this laboratory. The authors suggest that regulations based on vigorous extractions for the analyses of persistent organic pollutants in soil do not appropriately estimate exposure or risk to susceptible populations.

  17. 76 FR 39399 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-06

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Notice of Availability... availability of EPA's preliminary human health risk assessment for the registration review of chlorpyrifos and... comprehensive preliminary human health risk assessment for all chlorpyrifos uses. After reviewing...

  18. 76 FR 52945 - Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-08-24

    ... AGENCY Chlorpyrifos Registration Review; Preliminary Human Health Risk Assessment; Extension of Comment... availability of the chlorpyrifos registration review; preliminary human health risk assessment. This document... for the chlorpyrifos reregistration review, preliminary human health risk assessment, established...

  19. In Sickness but Not in Wealth: Field Evidence on Patients' Risk Preferences in Financial and Health Domains.

    PubMed

    Galizzi, Matteo M; Miraldo, Marisa; Stavropoulou, Charitini

    2016-05-01

    We present results from a hypothetical framed field experiment assessing whether risk preferences significantly differ across the health and financial domains when they are elicited through the same multiple price list paired-lottery method. We consider a sample of 300 patients attending outpatient clinics in a university hospital in Athens during the Greek financial crisis. Risk preferences in finance were elicited using paired-lottery questions with hypothetical payments. The questions were adapted to the health domain by framing the lotteries as risky treatments in hypothetical health care scenarios. Using maximum likelihood methods, we estimated the degree of risk aversion, allowing for the estimates to be dependent on domain and individual characteristics. The subjects in our sample, who were exposed to both health and financial distress, tended to be less risk averse in the financial domain than in the health domain. PMID:26856889

  20. A Combined Approach for Estimating Health Staff Requirements

    PubMed Central

    FAKHRI, Ali; SEYEDIN, Hesam; DAVIAUD, Emmanuelle

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background Many studies have been carried out and many methods have been used for estimating health staff re-quirements in health facilities or system, each have different advantages and disadvantages. Differences in the extent to which utilization matches needs in different conditions intensify the limitations of each approach when used in iso-lation. Is the utilization-based approach efficient in a situation of over servicing? Is it sufficient in a situation of under-utilization? These questions can be similarly asked about the needs-based approach. This study is looking for a flexible approach to estimate the health staff requirements efficiently in these different conditions. Method This study was carried out in 2011 in some stages: It was conducted in order to identify the formula used in the different approaches. The basic formulas used in the utilization-based approach and the needs-based approach were identified and then combined using simple mathematical principles to develop a new formula. Finally, the new formula was piloted by assessing family health staff requirements in the health posts in Kashan City, Iran. Results Comparison of the two formulas showed that the basic formulas used in the two approaches can be com-bined by including the variable ‘Coverage’. The pilot study confirmed the role of coverage in the suggested combined approach. Conclusions The variables in the developed formula allow combining needs-based, target-based and utilization-based approaches. A limitation of this approach is applicability to a given service package. PMID:26060687

  1. Application of a Spatial Intelligent Decision System on Self-Rated Health Status Estimation.

    PubMed

    Calzada, Alberto; Liu, Jun; Wang, Hui; Nugent, Chris; Martinez, Luis

    2015-11-01

    Self- assessed general health status is a commonly-used survey technique since it can be used as a predictor for several public health risks such as mortality, deprivation, and fear of crime or poverty. Therefore, it is a useful alternative measure to help assessing the public health situation of a neighborhood or town, and can be utilized by authorities in many decision support situations related to public health, budget allocation and general policy-making, among others. It can be considered as spatial decision problems, since both data location and spatial relationships make a prominent impact during the decision making process. This paper utilizes a recently-developed spatial intelligent decision system, named, Spatial RIMER(+), to model the self-rated health estimation decision problem using real data in the areas of Northern Ireland, UK. The goal is to learn from past or partial observations on self-rated health status to predict its future or neighborhood behavior and reference it in the map. Three scenarios in line of this goal are discussed in details, i.e., estimation of unknown, downscaling, and predictions over time. They are used to demonstrate the flexibility and applicability of the spatial decision support system and their positive capabilities in terms of accuracy, efficiency and visualization. PMID:26330224

  2. Information security risk management for computerized health information systems in hospitals: a case study of Iran

    PubMed Central

    Zarei, Javad; Sadoughi, Farahnaz

    2016-01-01

    Background In recent years, hospitals in Iran – similar to those in other countries – have experienced growing use of computerized health information systems (CHISs), which play a significant role in the operations of hospitals. But, the major challenge of CHIS use is information security. This study attempts to evaluate CHIS information security risk management at hospitals of Iran. Materials and methods This applied study is a descriptive and cross-sectional research that has been conducted in 2015. The data were collected from 551 hospitals of Iran. Based on literature review, experts’ opinion, and observations at five hospitals, our intensive questionnaire was designed to assess security risk management for CHISs at the concerned hospitals, which was then sent to all hospitals in Iran by the Ministry of Health. Results Sixty-nine percent of the studied hospitals pursue information security policies and procedures in conformity with Iran Hospitals Accreditation Standards. At some hospitals, risk identification, risk evaluation, and risk estimation, as well as risk treatment, are unstructured without any specified approach or methodology. There is no significant structured approach to risk management at the studied hospitals. Conclusion Information security risk management is not followed by Iran’s hospitals and their information security policies. This problem can cause a large number of challenges for their CHIS security in future. Therefore, Iran’s Ministry of Health should develop practical policies to improve information security risk management in the hospitals of Iran. PMID:27313481

  3. HEALTH RISKS OF HUMAN EXPOSURE TO WASTEWATER

    EPA Science Inventory

    The primary objective of this research was to determine the health effects, if any, associated with occupational exposure to biological agents present in municipal wastewater. An additional objective was to determine the sensitivity of the methodology for detecting potential heal...

  4. Glutaraldehyde: a potential health risk to nurses

    SciTech Connect

    Newman, M.A.; Kachuba, J.B.

    1992-06-01

    This article discusses the potential toxicity of glutaraldehyde, a chemical commonly used in endoscopy units. The literature review cites adverse health effects experienced by workers exposed to glutaraldehyde. The sampling methodology for glutaraldehyde relative to the Occupational Safety and Health standard for glutaraldehyde is presented. Air monitoring should be performed to assess employee exposure to airborne glutaraldehyde in endoscopy departments. Recommendations for reducing exposure to glutaraldehyde in endoscopy units are included.

  5. Health Risk Behavior and Sexual Assault Among Ethnically Diverse Women

    PubMed Central

    Littleton, Heather L.; Grills-Taquechel, Amie E.; Buck, Katherine S.; Rosman, Lindsey; Dodd, Julia C.

    2013-01-01

    Sexual assault is associated with a number of health risk behaviors in women. It has been hypothesized that these risk behaviors, such as hazardous drinking, may represent women's attempts to cope with psychological distress, such as symptoms of depression and anxiety. However, extant research has failed to evaluate these relationships among ethnic minority samples or identify the mechanisms responsible for this association. The current study examined sexual assault history and two health risk behaviors (hazardous drinking and engaging in sexual behavior to regulate negative affect) in a diverse sample of 1,620 college women. Depression and anxiety were examined as mediators of the relationship between sexual assault and health risk behaviors. There was evidence of moderated mediation, such that for European American women, but not for ethnic minority women, both forms of psychological distress were significant mediators of the sexual assault/hazardous drinking relationship. In contrast, among all ethnic groups, the relationship between sexual assault and both forms of psychological distress was mediated by the use of sexual behavior as an affect regulation strategy. Results support a need to evaluate the assault experiences of ethnically diverse women, as well as the impact of the assault on their postassault experiences including health risk behaviors and psychological adjustment. Additionally, results suggest that practitioners should carefully assess health risk behaviors among victims of sexual assault and be aware that there may be differences in the risk factors and motives for these behaviors among women of various ethnic backgrounds. PMID:24223467

  6. Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater.

    PubMed

    Ma, Yukun; Egodawatta, Prasanna; McGree, James; Liu, An; Goonetilleke, Ashantha

    2016-07-01

    Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150μm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas. PMID:27046140

  7. Estimation of Tsunami Risk for the Caribbean Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zahibo, N.

    2004-05-01

    The tsunami problem for the coast of the Caribbean basin is discussed. Briefly the historical data of tsunami in the Caribbean Sea are presented. Numerical simulation of potential tsunamis in the Caribbean Sea is performed in the framework of the nonlinear-shallow theory. The tsunami wave height distribution along the Caribbean Coast is computed. These results are used to estimate the far-field tsunami potential of various coastal locations in the Caribbean Sea. In fact, five zones with tsunami low risk are selected basing on prognostic computations, they are: the bay "Golfo de Batabano" and the coast of province "Ciego de Avila" in Cuba, the Nicaraguan Coast (between Bluefields and Puerto Cabezas), the border between Mexico and Belize, the bay "Golfo de Venezuela" in Venezuela. The analysis of historical data confirms that there was no tsunami in the selected zones. Also, the wave attenuation in the Caribbean Sea is investigated; in fact, wave amplitude decreases in an order if the tsunami source is located on the distance up to 1000 km from the coastal location. Both factors wave attenuation and wave height distribution should be taken into account in the planned warning system for the Caribbean Sea. Specially the problem of tsunami risk for Lesser Antilles including Guadeloupe is discussed.

  8. [Health alert management and emerging risk].

    PubMed

    Pillonel, J

    2010-12-01

    Following health crisis that have occurred in the nineties (contaminated blood, mad cow, asbestos, etc.) and more recently those generated by the heat wave in 2003 or by emerging infectious pathogens (SARS, West Nile, Chikungunya, H5N1, H1N1…), a real health vigilance system has been progressively developed in France. After a brief historical overview of the health alert system, this article will give the guiding principles of its current organization in France and will present two examples of recent health alerts (Chikungunya in the Reunion Island in 2005-2006 and hepatitis A outbreak in the Côtes-d'Armor in August 2007), that have needed the implementation of preventive measures regarding the blood donor selection. These two examples have shown that the position of the alert in the French health vigilance system needs to be very close to the event. In that case, health alert is a very useful tool for decision making especially when measures have to be taken to prevent transfusion-transmitted pathogens. PMID:21051258

  9. Weight Misperception and Health Risk Behaviors Among Early Adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Pasch, Keryn E.; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Laska, Melissa N.; Velazquez, Cayley E.; Moe, Stacey G.; Lytle, Leslie A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives To examine associations between weight misperception and youth health risk and protective factors. Methods Three thousand ten US seventh-graders (72.1% white, mean age: 12.7 years) self-reported height, weight, risk, and projective factors. Analyses were conducted to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between weight overestimation and health risk and protective factors. Results Risk and protective factors had significant cross-sectional associations with weight overestimation. However, only depressive symptoms and reduced optimism predicted weight overestimation in eighth grade. Weight overestimation did not predict engagement in risky behaviors. Conclusions Weight overestimation and risk factors appear to co-occur, suggesting a constellation of risk that warrants further research. PMID:22251770

  10. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    PubMed

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-06-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts. PMID:27341027

  11. How to Estimate Epidemic Risk from Incomplete Contact Diaries Data?

    PubMed Central

    Mastrandrea, Rossana; Barrat, Alain

    2016-01-01

    Social interactions shape the patterns of spreading processes in a population. Techniques such as diaries or proximity sensors allow to collect data about encounters and to build networks of contacts between individuals. The contact networks obtained from these different techniques are however quantitatively different. Here, we first show how these discrepancies affect the prediction of the epidemic risk when these data are fed to numerical models of epidemic spread: low participation rate, under-reporting of contacts and overestimation of contact durations in contact diaries with respect to sensor data determine indeed important differences in the outcomes of the corresponding simulations with for instance an enhanced sensitivity to initial conditions. Most importantly, we investigate if and how information gathered from contact diaries can be used in such simulations in order to yield an accurate description of the epidemic risk, assuming that data from sensors represent the ground truth. The contact networks built from contact sensors and diaries present indeed several structural similarities: this suggests the possibility to construct, using only the contact diary network information, a surrogate contact network such that simulations using this surrogate network give the same estimation of the epidemic risk as simulations using the contact sensor network. We present and compare several methods to build such surrogate data, and show that it is indeed possible to obtain a good agreement between the outcomes of simulations using surrogate and sensor data, as long as the contact diary information is complemented by publicly available data describing the heterogeneity of the durations of human contacts. PMID:27341027

  12. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of 134Cs, 137Cs, and 131I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  13. Estimates of Radiation Doses and Cancer Risk from Food Intake in Korea.

    PubMed

    Moon, Eun-Kyeong; Ha, Wi-Ho; Seo, Songwon; Jin, Young Woo; Jeong, Kyu Hwan; Yoon, Hae-Jung; Kim, Hyoung-Soo; Hwang, Myung-Sil; Choi, Hoon; Lee, Won Jin

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to estimate internal radiation doses and lifetime cancer risk from food ingestion. Radiation doses from food intake were calculated using the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the measured radioactivity of (134)Cs, (137)Cs, and (131)I from the Ministry of Food and Drug Safety in Korea. Total number of measured data was 8,496 (3,643 for agricultural products, 644 for livestock products, 43 for milk products, 3,193 for marine products, and 973 for processed food). Cancer risk was calculated by multiplying the estimated committed effective dose and the detriment adjusted nominal risk coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiation Protection. The lifetime committed effective doses from the daily diet are ranged 2.957-3.710 mSv. Excess lifetime cancer risks are 14.4-18.1, 0.4-0.5, and 1.8-2.3 per 100,000 for all solid cancers combined, thyroid cancer, and leukemia, respectively. PMID:26770031

  14. Environmental risks and children's health: what can PRAMS tell us?

    PubMed

    Korfmacher, Katrina Smith; Suter, Barbara J; Cai, Xueya; Brownson, Susan A; Dozier, Ann M

    2014-07-01

    Environmental exposures during pregnancy have a lasting impact on children's health. We combined environmental and maternal risk factor survey data to inform efforts to protect children's health. We made recommendations for future use of such data. A modified version of the Pregnancy Risk Assessment Monitoring System (PRAMS) mail survey was conducted based on weighted sampling design with low-income and non-low income women in Monroe County, NY (1,022 respondents). A series of environmental questions were included in the questionnaire. Data were analyzed using Chi square tests and Poisson loglinear regression model to identify patterns in environmental health risk and sociodemographic characteristics. We identified women who rented their homes, had lower incomes, and lived in inner city zip codes as "high environmental health risk" (HEHR). HEHR respondents were more likely to report that a health care provider talked with them about lead and on average reported more behaviors to protect their children from lead poisoning. Combining environmental and perinatal risk factor data could yield important recommendations for medical practice, health education, and policy development. However, at present PRAMS gathers only limited and inconsistent environmental data. We found that existing PRAMS environmental questions are insufficient. Further work is needed to develop updated and more comprehensive environmental health survey questions and implement them consistently across the country. PMID:23955384

  15. Gambling disorder: estimated prevalence rates and risk factors in Macao.

    PubMed

    Wu, Anise M S; Lai, Mark H C; Tong, Kwok-Kit

    2014-12-01

    An excessive, problematic gambling pattern has been regarded as a mental disorder in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders (DSM) for more than 3 decades (American Psychiatric Association [APA], 1980). In this study, its latest prevalence in Macao (one of very few cities with legalized gambling in China and the Far East) was estimated with 2 major changes in the diagnostic criteria, suggested by the 5th edition of DSM (APA, 2013): (a) removing the "Illegal Act" criterion, and (b) lowering the threshold for diagnosis. A random, representative sample of 1,018 Macao residents was surveyed with a phone poll design in January 2013. After the 2 changes were adopted, the present study showed that the estimated prevalence rate of gambling disorder was 2.1% of the Macao adult population. Moreover, the present findings also provided empirical support to the application of these 2 recommended changes when assessing symptoms of gambling disorder among Chinese community adults. Personal risk factors of gambling disorder, namely being male, having low education, a preference for casino gambling, as well as high materialism, were identified. PMID:25134026

  16. Victimization and Health Risk Factors among Weapon-Carrying Youth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stayton, Catherine; McVeigh, Katharine H.; Olson, E. Carolyn; Perkins, Krystal; Kerker, Bonnie D.

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To compare health risks of 2 subgroups of weapon carriers: victimized and nonvictimized youth. Methods: 2003-2007 NYC Youth Risk Behavior Surveys were analyzed using bivariate analyses and multinomial logistic regression. Results: Among NYC teens, 7.5% reported weapon carrying without victimization; 6.9% reported it with victimization.…

  17. Weight Misperception and Health Risk Behaviors among Early Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pasch, Keryn E.; Klein, Elizabeth G.; Laska, Melissa N.; Velazquez, Cayley E.; Moe, Stacey G.; Lytle, Leslie A.

    2011-01-01

    Objectives: To examine associations between weight misperception and youth health risk and protective factors. Methods: Three thousand ten US seventh-graders (72.1% white, mean age: 12.7 years) self-reported height, weight, risk, and protective factors. Analyses were conducted to determine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between…

  18. The FRIENDS Emotional Health Program for Minority Groups at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Iizuka, Cristina A.; Barrett, Paula M.; Gillies, Robyn; Cook, Clayton R.; Miller, Debbie

    2014-01-01

    Background: Despite the existence of evidence-based interventions for promoting mental health in children, the number of children at risk remains high. One of the reasons is that such interventions are not reaching specific groups at risk such as low socioeconomic status and ethnic minority groups. This study evaluated an adaptation of a…

  19. Health Risk Behavior and Sexual Assault among Ethnically Diverse Women

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Littleton, Heather L.; Grills-Taquechel, Amie E.; Buck, Katherine S.; Rosman, Lindsey; Dodd, Julia C.

    2013-01-01

    Sexual assault is associated with a number of health risk behaviors in women. It has been hypothesized that these risk behaviors, such as hazardous drinking, may represent women's attempts to cope with psychological distress, such as symptoms of depression and anxiety. However, extant research has failed to evaluate these relationships among…

  20. Thoracic and respirable particle definitions for human health risk assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Provides estimates of the thoracic and respirable fractions, for adults and children during typical activities during both nasal and oral inhalation, that may be used in the design of experimental studies and interpretation of evidence of health effects.

  1. Methods and software for estimating health disparities: the case of children's oral health.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Nancy F; Han, Pamela Z; Gansky, Stuart A

    2008-10-15

    The National Center for Health Statistics recently issued a monograph with 11 guidelines for reporting health disparities. However, guidelines on confidence intervals (CIs) cannot be readily implemented with the complex sample surveys often used for disease surveillance. In the United States, dental caries (decay) is the most common chronic childhood disease-5 times more common than asthma. Racial/ethnic minorities, immigrants, and persons of lower socioeconomic position (SEP) have a greater prevalence of caries. The authors provide methods for applying National Center for Health Statistics guidelines to complex sample surveys (health disparity indices and absolute and relative difference measures assessing associations of race/ethnicity and SEP to health outcomes with CIs); illustrate the application of those methods to children's untreated caries; provide relevant software; and report results from a simulation varying prevalence. They use data on untreated caries from the California Oral Health Needs Assessment of Children 2004-2005 and school percentage of participation in free/reduced-price lunch programs to illustrate the methods. Absolute and relative measures, the Slope Index of Inequality, the Relative Index of Inequality (mean and ratio), and the Health Concentration Index were estimated. Taylor series linearization and rescaling bootstrap methods were used to estimate CIs. Oral health differed significantly between White children and all non-White children and was significantly related to SEP. PMID:18779387

  2. Risk distribution across multiple health insurance funds in rural Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    Chomi, Eunice Nahyuha; Mujinja, Phares Gamba; Enemark, Ulrika; Hansen, Kristian; Kiwara, Angwara Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Multiple insurance funds serving different population groups may compromise equity due to differential revenue raising capacity and an unequal distribution of high risk members among the funds. This occurs when the funds exist without mechanisms in place to promote income and risk cross-subsidisation across the funds. This paper analyses whether the risk distribution varies across the Community Health Fund (CHF) and National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) in two districts in Tanzania. Specifically we aim to 1) identify risk factors associated with increased utilisation of health services and 2) compare the distribution of identified risk factors among the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. Methods Data was collected from a survey of 695 households. A multivariate logisitic regression model was used to identify risk factors for increased health care utilisation. Chi-square tests were performed to test whether the distribution of identified risk factors varied across the CHF, NHIF and non-member households. Results There was a higher concentration of identified risk factors among CHF households compared to those of the NHIF. Non-member households have a similar wealth status to CHF households, but a lower concentration of identified risk factors. Conclusion Mechanisms for broader risk spreading and cross-subsidisation across the funds are necessary for the promotion of equity. These include risk equalisation to adjust for differential risk distribution and revenue raising capacity of the funds. Expansion of CHF coverage is equally important, by addressing non-financial barriers to CHF enrolment to encourage wealthy non-members to join, as well as subsidised membership for the poorest. PMID:25574326

  3. Assessing human health risk in the USDA forest service

    SciTech Connect

    Hamel, D.R.

    1990-12-31

    This paper identifies the kinds of risk assessments being done by or for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service. Summaries of data sources currently in use and the pesticide risk assessments completed by the agency or its contractors are discussed. An overview is provided of the agency`s standard operating procedures for the conduct of toxicological, ecological, environmental fate, and human health risk assessments.

  4. Assessment of cardiovascular risk in primary health care

    PubMed Central

    Korhonen, Päivi; Vesalainen, Risto; Aarnio, Pertti; Kautiainen, Hannu; Järvenpää, Salme; Kantola, Ilkka

    2012-01-01

    Objective This study aimed at investigating whether cardiovascular risk factors and their impact on total risk estimation differ between men and women. Design Cross-sectional cohort study. Subjects Finnish cardiovascular risk subjects (n = 904) without established cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or known diabetes. Main outcome measures Ankle-brachial index (ABI), estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), oral glucose tolerance test, and total cardiovascular risk using SCORE risk charts. Results According to the SCORE risk charts, 27.0% (95% CI 23.1–31.2) of the women and 63.1% (95% CI 58.3–67.7) of the men (p < 0.001) were classified as high-risk subjects. Of the women classified as low-risk subjects according to SCORE, 25% had either subclinical peripheral arterial disease or renal insufficiency. Conclusions The SCORE system does not take into account cardiovascular risk factors typical in women, and thus underestimates their total cardiovascular risk. Measurement of ABI and eGFR in primary care might improve cardiovascular risk assessment. especially in women. PMID:22643155

  5. Physical Activity Protects against the Health Risks of Obesity.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Welk, Gregory J.; Blair, Steven N.

    2000-01-01

    This paper reviews the relationships between physical fitness and body composition and their combined effect on health. After discussing the epidemiologic evidence for a protective effect of physical fitness on the health risks associated with obesity, it describes the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study, an ongoing observational study that…

  6. Comparison of health risk behavior, awareness, and health benefit beliefs of health science and non-health science students: An international study.

    PubMed

    Peltzer, Karl; Pengpid, Supa; Yung, Tony K C; Aounallah-Skhiri, Hajer; Rehman, Rehana

    2016-06-01

    This study determines the differences in health risk behavior, knowledge, and health benefit beliefs between health science and non-health science university students in 17 low and middle income countries. Anonymous questionnaire data were collected in a cross-sectional survey of 13,042 undergraduate university students (4,981 health science and 8,061 non-health science students) from 17 universities in 17 countries across Asia, Africa, and the Americas. Results indicate that overall, health science students had the same mean number of health risk behaviors as non-health science university students. Regarding addictive risk behavior, fewer health science students used tobacco, were binge drinkers, or gambled once a week or more. Health science students also had a greater awareness of health behavior risks (5.5) than non-health science students (4.6). Linear regression analysis found a strong association with poor or weak health benefit beliefs and the health risk behavior index. There was no association between risk awareness and health risk behavior among health science students and an inverse association among non-health science students. PMID:26538523

  7. Aircraft Turbofan Engine Health Estimation Using Constrained Kalman Filtering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, Dan; Simon, Donald L.

    2003-01-01

    Kalman filters are often used to estimate the state variables of a dynamic system. However, in the application of Kalman filters some known signal information is often either ignored or dealt with heuristically. For instance, state variable constraints (which may be based on physical considerations) are often neglected because they do not fit easily into the structure of the Kalman filter. This paper develops an analytic method of incorporating state variable inequality constraints in the Kalman filter. The resultant filter is a combination of a standard Kalman filter and a quadratic programming problem. The incorporation of state variable constraints increases the computational effort of the filter but significantly improves its estimation accuracy. The improvement is proven theoretically and shown via simulation results obtained from application to a turbofan engine model. This model contains 16 state variables, 12 measurements, and 8 component health parameters. It is shown that the new algorithms provide improved performance in this example over unconstrained Kalman filtering.

  8. Taking risks to save lives and health.

    PubMed

    Mohamad, K

    1993-01-01

    To reduce the serious health consequences of illegal abortion, the Indonesian Planned Parenthood Association is providing menstrual regulation services. At present, the Association has 15 comprehensive family planning clinics located in 13 out of 27 province capitals. Initially, menstrual regulation was available only in cases of contraceptive failure, but indicators for this service were quickly broadened to meet the large demand for termination of unwanted pregnancies. The ambiguity of the 1992 health law's wording on abortion--abortion is not explicitly mentioned, in an apparent effort to alienate neither anti-abortion forces nor promoters of safe abortion--threatens to stalemate further gains for Indonesian women. Although abortionists are rarely prosecuted, family planning organizations must be cautious to avoid liability suits. The situation in Indonesia is an example of women's health being held hostage to political interests. PMID:12345326

  9. The health risks of new-wave vegetarianism.

    PubMed

    Szabo, L

    1997-05-15

    Many young people call themselves vegetarians because they don't eat meat, but the eating style they are adopting is fraught with health risks. In this article, which won CMAJ's 1996 Army Chouinard Memorial Essay Contest for Canadian journalism students, Laura Brydges Szabo looks at the "new vegetarianism" and the recommendations health care professionals are making to young people intent on following this incomplete diet. The contest encourages journalism students to write on health care topics. PMID:9164409

  10. The health risks of new-wave vegetarianism

    PubMed Central

    Szabo, L

    1997-01-01

    Many young people call themselves vegetarians because they don't eat meat, but the eating style they are adopting is fraught with health risks. In this article, which won CMAJ's 1996 Army Chouinard Memorial Essay Contest for Canadian journalism students, Laura Brydges Szabo looks at the "new vegetarianism" and the recommendations health care professionals are making to young people intent on following this incomplete diet. The contest encourages journalism students to write on health care topics. PMID:9164409

  11. Window panes of eternity. Health, disease, and inherited risk.

    PubMed Central

    Scriver, C. R.

    1982-01-01

    Personal health reflects harmony between individual and experience; it is optimal homeostasis. Disease is an outcome of incongruity leading to dishomeostasis. Relative to earlier times, disease in modern society has higher "heritability" (in the broad meaning of the term). Inherited risks are facts compatible with anticipation and prevention of disease. This viewpoint has major implications for medical practice, deployment of health services, themes of research, and education of health care personnel and citizens. PMID:6763817

  12. Soil-ecological risks for soil degradation estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trifonova, Tatiana; Shirkin, Leonid; Kust, German; Andreeva, Olga

    2016-04-01

    Soil degradation includes the processes of soil properties and quality worsening, primarily from the point of view of their productivity and decrease of ecosystem services quality. Complete soil cover destruction and/or functioning termination of soil forms of organic life are considered as extreme stages of soil degradation, and for the fragile ecosystems they are normally considered in the network of their desertification, land degradation and droughts /DLDD/ concept. Block-model of ecotoxic effects, generating soil and ecosystem degradation, has been developed as a result of the long-term field and laboratory research of sod-podzol soils, contaminated with waste, containing heavy metals. The model highlights soil degradation mechanisms, caused by direct and indirect impact of ecotoxicants on "phytocenosis- soil" system and their combination, frequently causing synergistic effect. The sequence of occurring changes here can be formalized as a theory of change (succession of interrelated events). Several stages are distinguished here - from heavy metals leaching (releasing) in waste and their migration downward the soil profile to phytoproductivity decrease and certain phytocenosis composition changes. Phytoproductivity decrease leads to the reduction of cellulose content introduced into the soil. The described feedback mechanism acts as a factor of sod-podzolic soil self-purification and stability. It has been shown, that using phytomass productivity index, integrally reflecting the worsening of soil properties complex, it is possible to solve the problems dealing with the dose-reflecting reactions creation and determination of critical levels of load for phytocenosis and corresponding soil-ecological risks. Soil-ecological risk in "phytocenosis- soil" system means probable negative changes and the loss of some ecosystem functions during the transformation process of dead organic substance energy for the new biomass composition. Soil-ecological risks estimation is

  13. When Is Lead a Health Risk?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Renner, Rebecca

    1995-01-01

    Although some communities welcome environmental cleanup, others reject official advice about the hazards of living in a high-lead environment. Discusses a predictive model developed by the Environmental Protection Agency and its ability to provide new guidance. Examines mechanisms for human exposure to lead, in particular, the risk to children.…

  14. Evaluation of health risks for contaminated aquifers.

    PubMed Central

    Piver, W T; Jacobs, T L; Medina, M A

    1997-01-01

    This review focuses on progress in the development of transport models for heterogeneous contaminated aquifers, the use of predicted contaminant concentrations in groundwater for risk assessment for heterogeneous human populations, and the evaluation of aquifer remediation technologies. Major limitations and areas for continuing research for all methods presented in this review are identified. Images Figure 2. PMID:9114282

  15. Health Warnings on Alcoholic Beverages: Perceptions of the Health Risks and Intentions towards Alcohol Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Wigg, Sophie; Stafford, Lorenzo D.

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Research has demonstrated that packaging which includes pictorial health warnings are more effective in altering smokers’ perceptions and intentions as well as changing smoking behaviours compared to text-only health warnings. However, very few studies have investigated the effectiveness of health warnings on alcoholic beverages Methods Participants (N = 60) viewed alcoholic beverages presenting one of three health warnings (No health warning, Text-only, Pictorial) and then responded to questions relating to level of fear arousal and their perceptions toward alcohol use. Results We found that pictorial health warnings were associated with significantly higher fear arousal, increased perceptions of the health risks of consuming alcohol as well as greater intentions to reduce and quit alcohol consumption compared to the control. Conclusions These novel findings suggest pictorial health warnings on alcoholic beverages may be an important way of making the public aware of the health risks of alcohol consumption. PMID:27105210

  16. A Temporal, Multicity Model to Estimate the Effects of Short-Term Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution on Health

    PubMed Central

    Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Stieb, David M.; Jessiman, Barry; Goldberg, Mark S.; Brion, Orly; Brook, Jeff; Ramsay, Tim; Burnett, Richard T.

    2008-01-01

    Background Countries worldwide are expending significant resources to improve air quality partly to improve the health of their citizens. Are these societal expenditures improving public health? Objectives We consider these issues by tracking the risk of death associated with outdoor air pollution over both space and time in Canadian cities. Materials and methods We propose two multi-year estimators that use current plus several previous years of data to estimate current year risk. The estimators are derived from sequential time series analyses using moving time windows. To evaluate the statistical properties of the proposed methods, a simulation study with three scenarios of changing risk was conducted based on 12 Canadian cities from 1981 to 2000. Then an optimal estimator was applied to 24 of Canada’s largest cities over the 17-year period from 1984 to 2000. Results The annual average daily concentrations of ozone appeared to be increasing over the time period, whereas those of nitrogen dioxide were decreasing. However, the proposed method returns different time trends in public health risks. Evidence for some monotonic increasing trends in the annual risks is weak for O3 (p = 0.3870) but somewhat stronger for NO2 (p = 0.1082). In particular, an increasing time trend becomes apparent when excluding year 1998, which reveals lower risk than proximal years, even though concentrations of NO2 were decreasing. The simulation results validate our two proposed methods, producing estimates close to the preassigned values. Conclusions Despite decreasing ambient concentrations, public health risks related to NO2 appear to be increasing. Further investigations are necessary to understand why the concentrations and adverse effects of NO2 show opposite time trends. PMID:18795155

  17. Modelling microbial health risk of wastewater reuse: A systems perspective.

    PubMed

    Beaudequin, Denise; Harden, Fiona; Roiko, Anne; Stratton, Helen; Lemckert, Charles; Mengersen, Kerrie

    2015-11-01

    There is a widespread need for the use of quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) to determine reclaimed water quality for specific uses, however neither faecal indicator levels nor pathogen concentrations alone are adequate for assessing exposure health risk. The aim of this study was to build a conceptual model representing factors contributing to the microbiological health risks of reusing water treated in maturation ponds. This paper describes the development of an unparameterised model that provides a visual representation of theoretical constructs and variables of interest. Information was collected from the peer-reviewed literature and through consultation with experts from regulatory authorities and academic disciplines. In this paper we explore how, considering microbial risk as a modular system, following the QMRA framework enables incorporation of the many factors influencing human exposure and dose response, to better characterise likely human health impacts. By using and expanding upon the QMRA framework we deliver new insights into this important field of environmental exposures. We present a conceptual model of health risk of microbial exposure which can be used for maturation ponds and, more importantly, as a generic tool to assess health risk in diverse wastewater reuse scenarios. PMID:26277638

  18. A study of Minnesota's high-risk health insurance pool.

    PubMed

    Zellner, B B; Haugen, D K; Dowd, B

    1993-01-01

    This is a report of a study of Minnesota's high-risk health insurance pool for "medically uninsurable" persons. The study consisted of a survey of current and past enrollees carried out in the Spring of 1990 and an analysis of the claims and membership files for 1988 and 1989. The main policy conclusion we reached is that Minnesota's high-risk pool is an adequate approach to the problem raised by risk segmentation on the basis of health status, providing that enrollment remains a small fraction of the population. The recent high, enrollment growth rates the Minnesota risk pool has experienced raise the possibility that basic structural reforms of the nongroup and small-group health insurance markets are needed. PMID:8314605

  19. Youth Risk Behavior Surveillance System: Selected 2011 National Health Risk Behaviors and Health Outcomes by Race/Ethnicity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2011

    2011-01-01

    The national Youth Risk Behavior Survey (YRBS) monitors priority health risk behaviors that contribute to the leading causes of death, disability, and social problems among youth and adults in the United States. The national YRBS is conducted every two years during the spring semester and provides data representative of 9th through 12th grade…

  20. Cryptosporidium and Giardia in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with domestic sewage: estimation of bathing-associated disease risks.

    PubMed

    Betancourt, Walter Q; Duarte, Diana C; Vásquez, Rosa C; Gurian, Patrick L

    2014-08-15

    Sewage is a major contributor to pollution problems involving human pathogens in tropical coastal areas. This study investigated the occurrence of intestinal protozoan parasites (Giardia and Cryptosporidium) in tropical recreational marine waters contaminated with sewage. The potential risks of Cryptosporidium and Giardia infection from recreational water exposure were estimated from the levels of viable (oo) cysts (DIC+, DAPI+, PI-) found in near-shore swimming areas using an exponential dose response model. A Monte Carlo uncertainty analysis was performed in order to determine the probability distribution of risks. Microbial indicators of recreational water quality (enterococci, Clostridium perfringens) and genetic markers of sewage pollution (human-specific Bacteroidales marker [HF183] and Clostridium coccoides) were simultaneously evaluated in order to estimate the extent of water quality deterioration associated with human wastes. The study revealed the potential risk of parasite infections via primary contact with tropical marine waters contaminated with sewage; higher risk estimates for Giardia than for Cryptosporidium were found. Mean risks estimated by Monte Carlo were below the U.S. EPA upper bound on recreational risk of 0.036 for cryptosporidiosis and giardiasis for both children and adults. However, 95th percentile estimates for giardiasis for children exceeded the 0.036 level. Environmental surveillance of microbial pathogens is crucial in order to control and eradicate the effects that increasing anthropogenic impacts have on marine ecosystems and human health. PMID:24975093

  1. Risk equalisation and voluntary health insurance: The South Africa experience.

    PubMed

    McLeod, Heather; Grobler, Pieter

    2010-11-01

    South Africa intends implementing major reforms in the financing of healthcare. Free market reforms in private health insurance in the late 1980s have been reversed by the new democratic government since 1994 with the re-introduction of open enrolment, community rating and minimum benefits. A system of national health insurance with income cross-subsidies, risk-adjusted payments and mandatory membership has been envisaged in policy papers since 1994. Subsequent work has seen the design of a Risk Equalisation Fund intended to operate between competing private health insurance funds. The paper outlines the South African health system and describes the risk equalisation formula that has been developed. The risk factors are age, gender, maternity events, numbers with certain chronic diseases and numbers with multiple chronic diseases. The Risk Equalisation Fund has been operating in shadow mode since 2005 with data being collected but no money changing hands. The South African experience of risk equalisation is of wider interest as it demonstrates an attempt to introduce more solidarity into a small but highly competitive private insurance market. The measures taken to combat over-reporting of chronic disease should be useful for countries or funders considering adding chronic disease to their risk equalisation formulae. PMID:20619476

  2. Mining the potential interrelationships between human health and ecological risk assessments of metal-contaminated sites

    SciTech Connect

    Appling, J.W.

    1994-12-31

    Conservative approaches to human health or ecological risk assessment often result in evaluations that indicate a risk at metal concentrations near or below background levels. This presents a complex dilemma to regulators, responsible parties, and the public: How can risk be more realistically estimated so that the public is not unnecessarily alarmed into thinking normal exposures pose abnormal risk, and site remediation can be responsible yet cost-effective? One answer is using-ecological and human health studies together to improve the quality of both types of assessments. Mammalian herbivores and roving children are good spatial and temporal integrators of exposure; biomarkers or Monte Carlo-based models of exposure to herbivores can support realistic estimates of exposure to children. Reduced bioavailability of metals in soils at mining sites is well recognized for many metals and is amenable to study in ecological species; such studies reduce the overestimate of risk to humans through direct contact or exposure via the food chain. Recent and current human health studies of lead and arsenic bioavailability also support ecological assessments. Mixtures of metals pose special challenges because of the potential for antagonistic, additive, or synergistic effects with respect to bioavailability, absorption, distribution, excretion, toxic effects and nutritional or physiological essentiality. Combining results from pharmacokinetic, mechanistic, and environmental studies of mixtures enhances the predictive abilities of risk assessments.

  3. Integrating Risk Adjustment and Enrollee Premiums in Health Plan Payment

    PubMed Central

    McGuire, Thomas G.; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P.; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D.; Zuvekas, Samuel

    2013-01-01

    In two important health policy contexts – private plans in Medicare and the new state-run “Exchanges” created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) – plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

  4. Integrating risk adjustment and enrollee premiums in health plan payment.

    PubMed

    McGuire, Thomas G; Glazer, Jacob; Newhouse, Joseph P; Normand, Sharon-Lise; Shi, Julie; Sinaiko, Anna D; Zuvekas, Samuel H

    2013-12-01

    In two important health policy contexts - private plans in Medicare and the new state-run "Exchanges" created as part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA) - plan payments come from two sources: risk-adjusted payments from a Regulator and premiums charged to individual enrollees. This paper derives principles for integrating risk-adjusted payments and premium policy in individual health insurance markets based on fitting total plan payments to health plan costs per person as closely as possible. A least squares regression including both health status and variables used in premiums reveals the weights a Regulator should put on risk adjusters when markets determine premiums. We apply the methods to an Exchange-eligible population drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS). PMID:24308878

  5. Risk Selection under Public Health Insurance with Opt-Out.

    PubMed

    Panthöfer, Sebastian

    2016-09-01

    This paper studies risk selection between public and private health insurance when some, but not all, individuals can opt out of otherwise mandatory public insurance. Using a theoretical model, I show that public insurance is adversely selected when insurers and insureds are symmetrically informed about health-related risks, and that there can be adverse or advantageous selection when insureds are privately informed. Using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel, I find that (i) public insurance is, on balance, adversely selected under the German public health insurance with opt out scheme, (ii) individuals advantageously select public insurance based on risk aversion and residential location, and (iii) there is suggestive evidence of asymmetric information in the market for private health insurance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:27237082

  6. Prevalence of Suicide Risk Factors and Suicide-Related Outcomes in the National Mental Health Study, Colombia

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Posada-Villa, Jose; Camacho, Juan Camilo; Valenzuela, Jose Ignacio; Arguello, Arturo; Cendales, Juan Gabriel; Fajardo, Roosevelt

    2009-01-01

    A community survey in 4,426 adults was undertaken as part of the World Mental Health Survey Initiative reporting the prevalence and risk factors for suicide-related outcomes in Colombia. Lifetime prevalence estimates of suicide ideation, plans, attempts, and risk factors for suicide-related outcomes were assessed. Retrospective reports of…

  7. Health risk appraisal: review of evidence for effectiveness.

    PubMed Central

    Schoenbach, V J; Wagner, E H; Beery, W L

    1987-01-01

    Since its introduction some two decades ago, health risk appraisal (HRA) has become a standard offering in the health promotion repertoire. The technique's distinctive feature is its use of epidemiologic data to generate quantitative risk messages for the client. Yet despite the dedication and considerable investments that have gone into HRA's development, dissemination, and use, there is only limited empirical evidence that these quantitative risk messages have any effect on clients. There do not appear to be any formal studies of HRA's effect on participation in health promotion programs, although increasing recruitment is regarded as a major benefit of using HRA. There are few indications of HRA effects on health beliefs. Most positive reports of effects on behavior change come from uncontrolled studies; several randomized controlled trials have yielded ambiguous findings. Virtually no data exist concerning the impact of the quantitative risk messages that distinguish HRA from other assessment techniques and that have motivated the substantial efforts toward developing and refining HRA. HRA has evident appeal and is probably a useful health education device for middle-class, middle-aged, nonminority clients. It may well have desirable effects on health-related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors when accompanied by counseling or education, but available evidence has not established its effectiveness. Given the difficulty of obtaining definitive evidence of the effectiveness of HRA and specifically of its use of quantitative risk projections, the need for such evidence is debatable. An adequately funded and reviewed research program to examine whether projections of absolute risk affect knowledge, beliefs, attitudes, and intention to change is recommended as the most fruitful next step. Epidemiologically based HRA procedures that provide feedback in terms of qualitative statements or relative risk may be a promising approach to prospective health assessment. PMID

  8. Draugen HSE-case - occupational health risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Glas, J.J.P.; Kjaer, E.

    1996-12-31

    The Draugen HSE-Case serves as a risk management tool. Originally, risk management included only major safety hazards to personnel, environment and assets. Work Environment risks such as ergonomics, psycho-social factors and exposure to chemicals and noise, was not given the same attention. The Draugen HSE-Case addresses this weakness and extends all work environment risks. In order to promote line responsibility and commitment, relevant personnel is involved in the Case development. {open_quotes}THESIS{degrees}, a software application, is used to systematize input and to generate reports. The Draugen HSE-case encompasses: HSE risk analyses related to specific activities; Control of risk related to work environment; Established tolerability criteria; Risk reducing measures; Emergency contingency measures; and Requirements for Competence and Follow-up. The development of Draugen HSE-Case is a continuous process. It will serve to minimize the potential of occupational illnesses, raise general awareness, and make occupational health management more cost-effective.

  9. [Risk communication in analysis of occupational health risk for industrial workers].

    PubMed

    Barg, A O; Lebedeva-Nesevrya, N A

    2015-01-01

    The article covers problems of risk communication system function on industrial enterprise. Sociologic study in machinery construction enterprise of Perm area helped to consider main procedures of informing on occupational risk for health of workers exposed to occupational hazards, to describe features and mechanisms of risk communication, to specify its model. The authors proved that main obstacles for efficient system of occupational risks communication are insufficiently thorough legal basis, low corporative social responsibility of the enterprise and low social value of health for workers. This article was prepared with the support of the Russian Humanitarian Science Foundation (Project No. 14-16-59011). PMID:26596113

  10. Methods of estimating or accounting for neighborhood associations with health using complex survey data.

    PubMed

    Brumback, Babette A; Cai, Zhuangyu; Dailey, Amy B

    2014-05-15

    Reasons for health disparities may include neighborhood-level factors, such as availability of health services, social norms, and environmental determinants, as well as individual-level factors. Investigating health inequalities using nationally or locally representative data often requires an approach that can accommodate a complex sampling design, in which individuals have unequal probabilities of selection into the study. The goal of the present article is to review and compare methods of estimating or accounting for neighborhood influences with complex survey data. We considered 3 types of methods, each generalized for use with complex survey data: ordinary regression, conditional likelihood regression, and generalized linear mixed-model regression. The relative strengths and weaknesses of each method differ from one study to another; we provide an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of each method theoretically, in terms of the nature of the estimable associations and the plausibility of the assumptions required for validity, and also practically, via a simulation study and 2 epidemiologic data analyses. The first analysis addresses determinants of repeat mammography screening use using data from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey. The second analysis addresses disparities in preventive oral health care using data from the 2008 Florida Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey. PMID:24723000

  11. Human Health Risk Assessment of Trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A

    PubMed Central

    Sin, Saemi

    2012-01-01

    This study investigated the human health risks of trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A. The excessive carcinogenic risks for central tendency exposure were 1.40 × 10?5 for male and female residents in the vicinity of Industrial Complex A. The excessive cancers risk for reasonable maximum exposure were 2.88 × 10?5 and 1.97 × 10?5 for males and females, respectively. These values indicate that there are potential cancer risks for exposure to these concentrations. The hazard index for central tendency exposure to trichloroethylene was 1.71 for male and female residents. The hazard indexes for reasonable maximum exposure were 3.27 and 2.41 for males and females, respectively. These values were over one, which is equivalent to the threshold value. This result showed that adverse cancer and non-cancer health effects may occur and that some risk management of trichloroethylene from Industrial Complex A was needed. PMID:24278607

  12. Comparative quantification of health risks: Conceptual framework and methodological issues

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Christopher JL; Ezzati, Majid; Lopez, Alan D; Rodgers, Anthony; Vander Hoorn, Stephen

    2003-01-01

    Reliable and comparable analysis of risks to health is key for preventing disease and injury. Causal attribution of morbidity and mortality to risk factors has traditionally been conducted in the context of methodological traditions of individual risk factors, often in a limited number of settings, restricting comparability. In this paper, we discuss the conceptual and methodological issues for quantifying the population health effects of individual or groups of risk factors in various levels of causality using knowledge from different scientific disciplines. The issues include: comparing the burden of disease due to the observed exposure distribution in a population with the burden from a hypothetical distribution or series of distributions, rather than a single reference level such as non-exposed; considering the multiple stages in the causal network of interactions among risk factor(s) and disease outcome to allow making inferences about some combinations of risk factors for which epidemiological studies have not been conducted, including the joint effects of multiple risk factors; calculating the health loss due to risk factor(s) as a time-indexed "stream" of disease burden due to a time-indexed "stream" of exposure, including consideration of discounting; and the sources of uncertainty. PMID:12780936

  13. Childhood CT scans and cancer risk: impact of predisposing factors for cancer on the risk estimates.

    PubMed

    Journy, N; Roué, T; Cardis, E; Le Pointe, H Ducou; Brisse, H; Chateil, J-F; Laurier, D; Bernier, M-O

    2016-03-01

    To investigate the role of cancer predisposing factors (PFs) on the associations between paediatric computed tomography (CT) scan exposures and subsequent risk of central nervous system (CNS) tumours and leukaemia. A cohort of children who underwent a CT scan in 2000-2010 in 23 French radiology departments was linked with the national childhood cancers registry and national vital status registry; information on PFs was retrieved through hospital discharge databases. In children without PF, hazard ratios of 1.07 (95% CI 0.99-1.10) for CNS tumours (15 cases) and 1.16 (95% CI 0.77-1.27) for leukaemia (12 cases) were estimated for each 10 mGy increment in CT x-rays organ doses. These estimates were similar to those obtained in the whole cohort. In children with PFs, no positive dose-risk association was observed, possibly related to earlier non-cancer mortality in this group. Our results suggest a modifying effect of PFs on CT-related cancer risks, but need to be confirmed by longer follow-up and other studies. PMID:26878249

  14. The challenge of health & environment: profiling risks & strategic priorities for now & the future.

    PubMed

    Narain, Jai P

    2012-08-01

    A substantial burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases in the developing countries is attributable to environmental risk factors. WHO estimates that the environmental factors are responsible for an estimated 24 per cent of the global burden of disease in terms of healthy life years lost and 23 per cent of all deaths; children being the worst sufferers. Given that the environment is linked with most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), without proper attention to the environmental risk factors and their management, it will be difficult to achieve many MDGs by 2015. The impact of environmental degradation on health may continue well into the future and the situation in fact, is likely to get worse. In order to address this challenge, two facts are worth noting. First, that much of the environmental disease burden is attributable to a few critical risk factors which include unsafe water and sanitation, exposure to indoor smoke from cooking fuel, outdoor air pollution, exposure to chemicals such as arsenic, and climate change. Second, that environment and health aspects must become, as a matter of urgency, a national priority, both in terms of policy and resources allocation. To meet the challenge of health and environment now and in the future, the following strategic approaches must be considered which include conducting environmental and health impact assessments; strengthening national environmental health policy and infrastructure; fostering inter-sectoral co-ordination and partnerships; mobilizing public participation; and enhancing the leadership role of health in advocacy, stewardship and capacity building. PMID:22960884

  15. Chemical speciation of trace metals emitted from Indonesian peat fires for health risk assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Betha, Raghu; Pradani, Maharani; Lestari, Puji; Joshi, Umid Man; Reid, Jeffrey S.; Balasubramanian, Rajasekhar

    2013-03-01

    Regional smoke-induced haze in Southeast Asia, caused by uncontrolled forest and peat fires in Indonesia, is of major environmental and health concern. In this study, we estimated carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic health risk due to exposure to fine particles (PM2.5) as emitted from peat fires at Kalimantan, Indonesia. For the health risk analysis, chemical speciation (exchangeable, reducible, oxidizable, and residual fractions) of 12 trace metals (Al, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Ti, V and Zn) in PM2.5 was studied. Results indicate that Al, Fe and Ti together accounted for a major fraction of total metal concentrations (~ 83%) in PM2.5 emissions in the immediate vicinity of peat fires. Chemical speciation reveals that a major proportion of most of the metals, with the exception of Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni and Cd, was present in the residual fraction. The exchangeable fraction of metals, which represents their bioavailability, could play a major role in inducing human health effects of PM2.5. This fraction contained carcinogenic metals such as Cd (39.2 ng m- 3) and Ni (249.3 ng m- 3) that exceeded their WHO guideline values by several factors. Health risk estimates suggest that exposure to PM2.5 emissions in the vicinity of peat fires poses serious health threats.

  16. The challenge of health & environment: Profiling risks & strategic priorities for now & the future

    PubMed Central

    Narain, Jai P.

    2012-01-01

    A substantial burden of communicable and non-communicable diseases in the developing countries is attributable to environmental risk factors. WHO estimates that the environmental factors are responsible for an estimated 24 per cent of the global burden of disease in terms of healthy life years lost and 23 per cent of all deaths; children being the worst sufferers. Given that the environment is linked with most of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), without proper attention to the environmental risk factors and their management, it will be difficult to achieve many MDGs by 2015. The impact of environmental degradation on health may continue well into the future and the situation in fact, is likely to get worse. In order to address this challenge, two facts are worth noting. First, that much of the environmental disease burden is attributable to a few critical risk factors which include unsafe water and sanitation, exposure to indoor smoke from cooking fuel, outdoor air pollution, exposure to chemicals such as arsenic, and climate change. Second, that environment and health aspects must become, as a matter of urgency, a national priority, both in terms of policy and resources allocation. To meet the challenge of health and environment now and in the future, the following strategic approaches must be considered which include conducting environmental and health impact assessments; strengthening national environmental health policy and infrastructure; fostering inter-sectoral co-ordination and partnerships; mobilizing public participation; and enhancing the leadership role of health in advocacy, stewardship and capacity building. PMID:22960884

  17. Peer health advisor program to reduce the health risks of university students.

    PubMed Central

    Carey, M I

    1984-01-01

    Health promoters in the United States need to address the challenge of reducing health risks in young adults. The conditions that lead to the largest percentages of early disabilities and deaths are related to lifestyle characteristics. As health care costs continue spiraling upward, many professionals question the use of solely medical solutions to health problems. Health leaders have called for a change in priorities from curing the sick to keeping people well. Reducing health risks will increase longevity, improve quality of life, and reduce health care costs. It is widely believed that during the adolescent and young adult years many important health habits are formed and set. An individual person's health destiny can, in fact, be greatly shaped by the attitudes, behavior, and knowledge adopted during the early years of independence. For these reasons, wellness and self-care programming for college students is vital and worthy of being rigorously explored and evaluated. In this health promotion proposal, peers deliver a Lifestyle Health Planning Program to university students. They can encourage an internal locus of control over health matters and a perception of choice in those they counsel. The peer advisors conduct one-on-one sessions and outreach programs in the subject areas of fitness, nutrition, health-impairing habits, stress management, and sexuality. Promoting self-responsibility during college years can set lifelong positive health habits. A group of trained peer health advisors can be an innovative device to implement a health promotion program in a university setting. PMID:6440207

  18. Potential risk of using General Estimates System: bicycle safety.

    PubMed

    Kweon, Young-Jun; Lee, Joyoung

    2010-11-01

    Beneficial effects of bicycle helmet use have been reported mostly based on medical or survey data collected from hospitals. This study was to examine the validity of the United States General Estimates System (GES) database familiar to many transportation professionals for a beneficial effect of helmet use in reducing the severity of injury to bicyclists and found potential risk of erroneous conclusions that can be drawn by a narrowly focused study when the GES database is used. Although the focus of the study was on bicycle helmet use, its findings regarding potential risk might be true for any type of traffic safety study using the GES data. A partial proportional odds model reflecting intrinsic ordering of injury severity was mainly used. About 16,000 bicycle-involved traffic crash records occurring in 2003 through 2008 in the United States were extracted from the GES database. Using the 2003-2008 GES data, a beneficial effect of helmet use was found in 2007, yet a detrimental effect in 2004 and no effect in 2003, 2005, 2006, and 2008, which are contrary to the past findings from medical or hospital survey data. It was speculated that these mixed results might be attributable to a possible lack of representation of the GES data for bicycle-involved traffic crashes, which may be supported by the findings, such as the average helmet use rates at the time of the crashes varying from 12% in 2004 to 38% in 2008. This suggests that the GES data may not be a reliable source for studying narrowly focused issues such as the effect of helmet use. A considerable fluctuation over years in basic statistical values (e.g., average) of variables of interest (e.g., helmet use) may be an indication of a possible lack of representation of the GES data. In such a case, caution should be exercised in interpreting and generalizing analysis results. PMID:20728621

  19. A global building inventory for earthquake loss estimation and risk management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Jaiswal, K.; Wald, D.; Porter, K.

    2010-01-01

    We develop a global database of building inventories using taxonomy of global building types for use in near-real-time post-earthquake loss estimation and pre-earthquake risk analysis, for the U.S. Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program. The database is available for public use, subject to peer review, scrutiny, and open enhancement. On a country-by-country level, it contains estimates of the distribution of building types categorized by material, lateral force resisting system, and occupancy type (residential or nonresidential, urban or rural). The database draws on and harmonizes numerous sources: (1) UN statistics, (2) UN Habitat's demographic and health survey (DHS) database, (3) national housing censuses, (4) the World Housing Encyclopedia and (5) other literature. ?? 2010, Earthquake Engineering Research Institute.

  20. Spatially interpolated disease prevalence estimation using collateral indicators of morbidity and ecological risk.

    PubMed

    Congdon, Peter

    2013-10-01

    This paper considers estimation of disease prevalence for small areas (neighbourhoods) when the available observations on prevalence are for an alternative partition of a region, such as service areas. Interpolation to neighbourhoods uses a kernel method extended to take account of two types of collateral information. The first is morbidity and service use data, such as hospital admissions, observed for neighbourhoods. Variations in morbidity and service use are expected to reflect prevalence. The second type of collateral information is ecological risk factors (e.g., pollution indices) that are expected to explain variability in prevalence in service areas, but are typically observed only for neighbourhoods. An application involves estimating neighbourhood asthma prevalence in a London health region involving 562 neighbourhoods and 189 service (primary care) areas. PMID:24129116

  1. The Impact of Perceived Frailty on Surgeons’ Estimates of Surgical Risk

    PubMed Central

    Ferguson, Mark K.; Farnan, Jeanne; Hemmerich, Josh A.; Slawinski, Kris; Acevedo, Julissa; Small, Stephen

    2015-01-01

    Background Physicians are only moderately accurate in estimating surgical risk based on clinical vignettes. We assessed the impact of perceived frailty by measuring the influence of a short video of a standardized patient on surgical risk estimates. Methods Thoracic surgeons and cardiothoracic trainees estimated the risk of major complications for lobectomy based on clinical vignettes of varied risk categories (low, average, high). After each vignette, subjects viewed a randomly selected video of a standardized patient exhibiting either vigorous or frail behavior, then re-estimated risk. Subjects were asked to rate 5 vignettes paired with 5 different standardized patients. Results Seventy-one physicians participated. Initial risk estimates varied according to the vignette risk category: low, 15.2 ± 11.2% risk; average, 23.7 ± 16.1%; high, 37.3 ± 18.9%; p<0.001 by ANOVA. Concordant information in vignettes and videos moderately altered estimates (high risk vignette, frail video: 10.6 ± 27.5% increase in estimate, p=0.006; low risk vignette, vigorous video: 14.5 ± 45.0% decrease, p=0.009). Discordant findings influenced risk estimates more substantially (high risk vignette, vigorous video: 21.2 ± 23.5% decrease in second risk estimate, p<0.001; low risk vignette, frail video: 151.9 ± 209.8% increase, p<0.001). Conclusions Surgeons differentiated relative risk of lobectomy based on clinical vignettes. The effect of viewing videos was small when vignettes and videos were concordant; the effect was more substantial when vignettes and videos were discordant. The information will be helpful in training future surgeons in frailty recognition and risk estimation. PMID:24932570

  2. Estimating urban flood risk - uncertainty in design criteria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newby, M.; Franks, S. W.; White, C. J.

    2015-06-01

    The design of urban stormwater infrastructure is generally performed assuming that climate is static. For engineering practitioners, stormwater infrastructure is designed using a peak flow method, such as the Rational Method as outlined in the Australian Rainfall and Runoff (AR&R) guidelines and estimates of design rainfall intensities. Changes to Australian rainfall intensity design criteria have been made through updated releases of the AR&R77, AR&R87 and the recent 2013 AR&R Intensity Frequency Distributions (IFDs). The primary focus of this study is to compare the three IFD sets from 51 locations Australia wide. Since the release of the AR&R77 IFDs, the duration and number of locations for rainfall data has increased and techniques for data analysis have changed. Updated terminology coinciding with the 2013 IFD release has also resulted in a practical change to the design rainfall. For example, infrastructure that is designed for a 1 : 5 year ARI correlates with an 18.13% AEP, however for practical purposes, hydraulic guidelines have been updated with the more intuitive 20% AEP. The evaluation of design rainfall variation across Australia has indicated that the changes are dependent upon location, recurrence interval and rainfall duration. The changes to design rainfall IFDs are due to the application of differing data analysis techniques, the length and number of data sets and the change in terminology from ARI to AEP. Such changes mean that developed infrastructure has been designed to a range of different design criteria indicating the likely inadequacy of earlier developments to the current estimates of flood risk. In many cases, the under-design of infrastructure is greater than the expected impact of increased rainfall intensity under climate change scenarios.

  3. WHAT DO ORGANIC BABY FOOD PURCHASES TELL US ABOUT PARENTAL VALUES FOR REDUCTIONS IN RISKS TO CHILDREN'S HEALTH

    EPA Science Inventory

    Willingness-to-pay estimates of the value of reductions in health risks abound in the economics literature. These estimates are used in the conduct of benefit-cost analyses to inform policy decisions regarding competing government programs and to assess the effectiveness of inte...

  4. Developing Hydrogeological Site Characterization Strategies based on Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, F.; Rubin, Y.; Maxwell, R. M.

    2013-12-01

    In order to provide better sustainable groundwater quality management and minimize the impact of contamination in humans, improved understanding and quantification of the interaction between hydrogeological models, geological site information and human health are needed. Considering the joint influence of these components in the overall human health risk assessment and the corresponding sources of uncertainty aid decision makers to better allocate resources in data acquisition campaigns. This is important to (1) achieve remediation goals in a cost-effective manner, (2) protect human health and (3) keep water supplies clean in order to keep with quality standards. Such task is challenging since a full characterization of the subsurface is unfeasible due to financial and technological constraints. In addition, human exposure and physiological response to contamination are subject to uncertainty and variability. Normally, sampling strategies are developed with the goal of reducing uncertainty, but less often they are developed in the context of their impacts on the overall system uncertainty. Therefore, quantifying the impact from each of these components (hydrogeological, behavioral and physiological) in final human health risk prediction can provide guidance for decision makers to best allocate resources towards minimal prediction uncertainty. In this presentation, a multi-component human health risk-based framework is presented which allows decision makers to set priorities through an information entropy-based visualization tool. Results highlight the role of characteristic length-scales characterizing flow and transport in determining data needs within an integrated hydrogeological-health framework. Conditions where uncertainty reduction in human health risk predictions may benefit from better understanding of the health component, as opposed to a more detailed hydrogeological characterization, are also discussed. Finally, results illustrate how different dose

  5. The Integration of LNT and Hormesis for Cancer Risk Assessment Optimizes Public Health Protection.

    PubMed

    Calabrese, Edward J; Shamoun, Dima Yazji; Hanekamp, Jaap C

    2016-03-01

    This paper proposes a new cancer risk assessment strategy and methodology that optimizes population-based responses by yielding the lowest disease/tumor incidence across the entire dose continuum. The authors argue that the optimization can be achieved by integrating two seemingly conflicting models; i.e., the linear no-threshold (LNT) and hormetic dose-response models. The integration would yield the optimized response at a risk of 10 with the LNT model. The integrative functionality of the LNT and hormetic dose response models provides an improved estimation of tumor incidence through model uncertainty analysis and major reductions in cancer incidence via hormetic model estimates. This novel approach to cancer risk assessment offers significant improvements over current risk assessment approaches by revealing a regulatory sweet spot that maximizes public health benefits while incorporating practical approaches for model validation. PMID:26808876

  6. VALUE-OF-INFORMATION APPROACH TO MOTIVATE UNCERTAINTY FACTORS WITH MECHANISTIC DATA: CHLORINE HUMAN HEALTH INHALATION RISK CASE STUDY

    EPA Science Inventory

    Data on the health effects of inhaled chlorine gas are available for rats, mice, monkeys, and humans. This makes it an ideal candidate to evaluate the value of quantitative interspecies extrapolation modeling to derive human health risk estimates. This project includes both expe...

  7. In vitro assessment of equivalence of occupational health risk: welders.

    PubMed Central

    Stern, R M

    1983-01-01

    The possibility of using in vitro testing to determine the equivalence of risk for various occupational groups is discussed. In the absence of epidemiological evidence or relevant animal in vivo bioassays on which to determine the health effects of specific occupational exposures, it is proposed to use similarities in the in vitro response to substances with known (or strongly suspected) and unknown risk to demonstrate their risk equivalence. Identification and evaluation of a high risk "hot spot" due to exposure to Cr(VI) for stainless steel welders is discussed in terms of recent developments in collection, analysis and bioassay of welding fumes. PMID:6641655

  8. RADON EXPOSURE ASSESSMENT AND DOSIMETRY APPLIED TO EPIDEMIOLOGY AND RISK ESTIMATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    Epidemiological studies of underground miners provide the primary basis for radon risk estimates for indoor exposures as well as mine exposures. A major source of uncertainty in these risk estimates is the uncertainty in radon progeny exposure estimates for the miners. In addit...

  9. Topical Review: ADHD and Health-Risk Behaviors: Toward Prevention and Health Promotion.

    PubMed

    Schoenfelder, Erin N; Kollins, Scott H

    2016-08-01

    Across the lifespan, attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is associated with increased health risk behaviors including substance abuse, binge eating and obesity, and unsafe sexual behavior. These risks are directly linked to the neurocognitive deficits associated with ADHD, and are also mediated by the cascade of psychosocial impairments and stressors caused by ADHD across development. However, little is known about optimal approaches to improve health outcomes in this high-risk population. This topical review provides an overview of health risks associated with ADHD and the limited existing research relevant to health promotion for children and adolescents with ADHD. Future research questions and implications for clinicians are also addressed-especially how psychologists and medical practitioners may improve child health through early screenings, increasing medication adherence, and treating psychosocial impairments. PMID:26717959

  10. Compounding conservatisms: EPA's health risk assessment methods

    SciTech Connect

    Stackelberg, K. von; Burmaster, D.E. )

    1993-03-01

    Superfund conjures up images of hazardous waste sites, which EPA is spending billions of dollars to remediate. One of the law's most worrisome effects is that it drains enormous economic resources without returning commensurate benefits. In a Sept. 1, 1991, front page article in The New York Times, experts argued that most health dangers at Superfund sites could be eliminated for a fraction of the billions that will be spent cleaning up the 1,200 high-priority sites across the country. Even EPA has suggested that the Superfund program may receive disproportionate resources, compared with other public health programs, such as radon in houses, the diminishing ozone layer and occupational diseases. Public opinion polls over the last decade consistently have mirrored the public's vast fear of hazardous waste sites, a fear as great as that held for nuclear power plants. Fear notwithstanding, the high cost of chosen remedies at given sites may have less to do with public health goals than with the method EPA uses to translate them into acceptable contaminant concentrations in soil, groundwater and other environmental media.

  11. Including pathogen risk in life cycle assessment of wastewater management. 1. Estimating the burden of disease associated with pathogens.

    PubMed

    Harder, Robin; Heimersson, Sara; Svanström, Magdalena; Peters, Gregory M

    2014-08-19

    The environmental performance of wastewater and sewage sludge management is commonly assessed using life cycle assessment (LCA), whereas pathogen risk is evaluated with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA). This study explored the application of QMRA methodology with intent to include pathogen risk in LCA and facilitate a comparison with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA. Pathogen risk was estimated for a model wastewater treatment system (WWTS) located in an industrialized country and consisting of primary, secondary, and tertiary wastewater treatment, anaerobic sludge digestion, and land application of sewage sludge. The estimation was based on eight previous QMRA studies as well as parameter values taken from the literature. A total pathogen risk (expressed as burden of disease) on the order of 0.2-9 disability-adjusted life years (DALY) per year of operation was estimated for the model WWTS serving 28,600 persons and for the pathogens and exposure pathways included in this study. The comparison of pathogen risk with other potential impacts on human health considered in LCA is detailed in part 2 of this article series. PMID:25058492

  12. Evaluating the Impact of Contaminant Dilution and Biodegradation in Uncertainty Quantification of Human Health Risk

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zarlenga, Antonio; de Barros, Felipe; Fiori, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    We present a probabilistic framework for assessing human health risk due to groundwater contamination. Our goal is to quantify how physical hydrogeological and biochemical parameters control the magnitude and uncertainty of human health risk. Our methodology captures the whole risk chain from the aquifer contamination to the tap water assumption by human population. The contaminant concentration, the key parameter for the risk estimation, is governed by the interplay between the large-scale advection, caused by heterogeneity and the degradation processes strictly related to the local scale dispersion processes. The core of the hazard identification and of the methodology is the reactive transport model: erratic displacement of contaminant in groundwater, due to the spatial variability of hydraulic conductivity (K), is characterized by a first-order Lagrangian stochastic model; different dynamics are considered as possible ways of biodegradation in aerobic and anaerobic conditions. With the goal of quantifying uncertainty, the Beta distribution is assumed for the concentration probability density function (pdf) model, while different levels of approximation are explored for the estimation of the one-point concentration moments. The information pertaining the flow and transport is connected with a proper dose response assessment which generally involves the estimation of physiological parameters of the exposed population. Human health response depends on the exposed individual metabolism (e.g. variability) and is subject to uncertainty. Therefore, the health parameters are intrinsically a stochastic. As a consequence, we provide an integrated in a global probabilistic human health risk framework which allows the propagation of the uncertainty from multiple sources. The final result, the health risk pdf, is expressed as function of a few relevant, physically-based parameters such as the size of the injection area, the Péclet number, the K structure metrics and

  13. Environmental Risks to Public Health in the United Arab Emirates: A Quantitative Assessment and Strategic Plan

    PubMed Central

    Farah, Zeinab S.

    2012-01-01

    Background: Environmental risks to health in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have shifted rapidly from infectious to noninfectious diseases as the nation has developed at an unprecedented rate. In response to public concerns over newly emerging environmental risks, the Environment Agency–Abu Dhabi commissioned a multidisciplinary environmental health strategic planning project. Objectives: In order to develop the environmental health strategic plan, we sought to quantify the illnesses and premature deaths in the UAE attributable to 14 environmental pollutant categories, prioritize these 14 risk factors, and identify interventions. Methods: We estimated the disease burden imposed by each risk factor using an attributable fraction approach, and we prioritized the risks using an empirically tested stakeholder engagement process. We then engaged government personnel, scientists, and other stakeholders to identify interventions. Results: The UAE’s environmental disease burden is low by global standards. Ambient air pollution is the leading contributor to premature mortality [~ 650 annual deaths; 95% confidence interval (CI): 140, 1,400]. Risk factors leading to > 10,000 annual health care facility visits included occupational exposures, indoor air pollution, drinking water contamination, seafood contamination, and ambient air pollution. Among the 14 risks considered, on average, outdoor air pollution was ranked by the stakeholders as the highest priority (mean rank, 1.4; interquartile range, 1–2) and indoor air pollution as the second-highest priority (mean rank 3.3; interquartile range, 2–4). The resulting strategic plan identified 216 potential interventions for reducing environmental risks to health. Conclusions: The strategic planning exercise described here provides a framework for systematically deciding how to invest public funds to maximize expected returns in environmental health, where returns are measured in terms of reductions in a population

  14. The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR) of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution), LandScan (~1 km), UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km), and GPW3 (~5 km). More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was consistently more

  15. Quantitative risk estimation for a Legionella pneumophila infection due to whirlpool use.

    PubMed

    Bouwknegt, Martijn; Schijven, Jack F; Schalk, Johanna A C; de Roda Husman, Ana Maria

    2013-07-01

    Quantitative microbiological risk assessment was used to quantify the risk associated with the exposure to Legionella pneumophila in a whirlpool. Conceptually, air bubbles ascend to the surface, intercepting Legionella from the traversed water. At the surface the bubble bursts into dominantly noninhalable jet drops and inhalable film drops. Assuming that film drops carry half of the intercepted Legionella, a total of four (95% interval: 1-9) and 4.5×10(4) (4.4×10(4) - 4.7×10(4) ) cfu/min were estimated to be aerosolized for concentrations of 1 and 1,000 legionellas per liter, respectively. Using a dose-response model for guinea pigs to represent humans, infection risks for active whirlpool use with 100 cfu/L water for 15 minutes were 0.29 (∼0.11-0.48) for susceptible males and 0.22 (∼0.06-0.42) for susceptible females. A L. pneumophila concentration of ≥1,000 cfu/L water was estimated to nearly always cause an infection (mean: 0.95; 95% interval: 0.9-∼1). Estimated infection risks were time-dependent, ranging from 0.02 (0-0.11) for 1-minute exposures to 0.93 (0.86-0.97) for 2-hour exposures when the L. pneumophila concentration was 100 cfu/L water. Pool water in Dutch bathing establishments should contain <100 cfu Legionella/L water. This study suggests that stricter provisions might be required to assure adequate public health protection. PMID:23078231

  16. Food safety risks and consumer health.

    PubMed

    Chassy, Bruce M

    2010-11-30

    The major food safety risks are not eating a healthy diet, and failure to avoid foodborne illness. Over one billion people in the world suffer from food insecurity and malnutrition. Nutritionally enhanced transgenic crops such as Golden Rice are one potential strategy for reducing malnutrition in the world. Transgenic crops are subjected to a rigorous pre-market safety assessment. The safety of novel proteins and other products is established, and through compositional analysis and animal studies, the safety of any observed changes is evaluated. These studies provide evidence that the new product is as safe as, or safer than, comparable varieties. It must be asked, however, if this rigorous analysis is necessary, because unregulated crops produced by other breeding methods also undergo genetic changes and contain unintended effects. Golden Rice poses infinitesimally small, if any, risk to consumers whilst it has the potential to spare millions of lives each year. However, because it is a transgenic crop, it cannot be deployed without years of expensive pre-market safety review. Paradoxically, if Golden Rice had been produced by less precise conventional methods of breeding, it would already be in the hands of poor farmers. It is concluded that the hyper-precautionary regulatory process applied to transgenic crops works to the extreme disadvantage of the hungry and the poor. PMID:20621653

  17. Nanoparticles – known and unknown health risks

    PubMed Central

    Hoet, Peter HM; Brüske-Hohlfeld, Irene; Salata, Oleg V

    2004-01-01

    Manmade nanoparticles range from the well-established multi-ton production of carbon black and fumed silica for applications in plastic fillers and car tyres to microgram quantities of fluorescent quantum dots used as markers in biological imaging. As nano-sciences are experiencing massive investment worldwide, there will be a further rise in consumer products relying on nanotechnology. While benefits of nanotechnology are widely publicised, the discussion of the potential effects of their widespread use in the consumer and industrial products are just beginning to emerge. This review provides comprehensive analysis of data available on health effects of nanomaterials. PMID:15588280

  18. Review of health risks of low testosterone and testosterone administration

    PubMed Central

    Jia, Huanguang; Sullivan, Charles T; McCoy, Sean C; Yarrow, Joshua F; Morrow, Matthew; Borst, Stephen E

    2015-01-01

    Hypogonadism is prevalent in older men and testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) for older hypogonadal men is a promising therapy. However, a number of important clinical concerns over TRT safety remain unsolved due to a lack of large-scale randomized clinical trials directly comparing the health risks of untreated hypogonadism vs long-term use of TRT. Meta-analyses of clinical trials of TRT as of 2010 have identified three major adverse events resulting from TRT: polycythemia, an increase in prostate-related events, and a slight reduction in serum high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. There are other purported health risks but their incidence can be neither confirmed nor denied based on the small number of subjects that have been studied to date. Furthermore, subsequent literature is equivocal with regard to the safety and utility of TRT and this topic has been subject to contentious debate. Since January 2014, the United States Food and Drug Administration has released two official announcements regarding the safety of TRT and clinical monitoring the risks in TRT users. Additionally, the health risks related to the clinical presentation of low or declining testosterone levels not been resolved in the current literature. Because TRT is prescribed in the context of putative risks resulting from reduced testosterone levels, we reviewed the epidemiology and reported risks of low testosterone levels. We also highlight the current information about TRT utilization, the risks most often claimed to be associated with TRT, and current or emerging alternatives to TRT. PMID:25879005

  19. Health, safety and environmental risk management in laboratory fields

    PubMed Central

    Yarahmadi, Rasoul; Moridi, Parvin; Roumiani, YarAllah

    2016-01-01

    Background: Research project risks are uncertain contingent events or situations that, if transpire, will have positive or negative effects on objectives of a project. The Management of Health and Safety at Work (MHSW) Regulations 1999 require all employers and the self-employed persons to assess the risks from their work on anyone who may be affected by their activities. Risk assessment is the first step in risk-management procedure, and due to its importance, it has been deemed to be a vital process while having a unique place in the researchbased management systems. Methods: In this research, a two-pronged study was carried out. Firstly, health and safety issues were studied and analyzed by means of ISO 14121. Secondly, environmental issues were examined with the aid of Failure Mode and Effect Analysis. Both processes were utilized to determine the risk level independently for each research laboratory and corrective measure priorities in each field (laboratory). Results: Data analysis showed that the total main and inherent risks in laboratory sites reduced by 38% to 86%. Upon comparing the average risk levels before and after implementing the control and protective actions utilizing risk management approaches which were separate from health, safety and environmental aspects, a highly effective significance (p<0.001) was obtained for inherent risk reduction. Analysis of health, safety and environmental control priorities with the purpose of comparing the ratio of the number of engineering measures to the amount of management ones showed a relatively significant increase. Conclusion: The large number of engineering measures was attributed to the employment of a variety of timeworn machinery (old technologies) along with using devices without basic protection components. PMID:27284544

  20. The age of risk: risk perception and determination following the Mental Health Act 2007.

    PubMed

    Glover-Thomas, Nicola

    2011-01-01

    Reforms to the mental health law framework for England and Wales, which were introduced by the Mental Health Act 2007, are now having a practical effect on day-to-day mental health decision-making. The 2007 Act amends the Mental Health Act 1983, which governs the compulsory hospitalisation and treatment of people with mental disorder; and represents the culmination of a protracted and controversial reform process which has spanned much of the last 15 years. One of the key foci in the 2007 Act is the question of the risk posed by the patient, primarily to others; a result of both the social and political impetus behind the reform process and mounting public anxiety at the management of the mentally disordered. The new Act seeks, as with past legislation, to find the elusive balance between protecting and facilitating the individual's autonomy while also providing an effective framework for the wider public right to protection. The 2007 Act solidifies the dominance of risk by providing a legitimating framework in which risk can be assessed, monitored, and managed. This attitudinal change is demonstrated by the gradual and almost insidious adoption of risk terminology within the practical decision-making setting and the increasing use of risk assessment and management tools. This article is informed by an empirical study which examined individual professional and institutional responses to the mental health legislation in relation to risk. It examines whether the amended legislative framework amplifies risk as an increasingly dominant concern within decision-making. The paper then goes on to consider how decision-makers use risk to assist with their daily roles. Extrapolated from data obtained through the study, several models of risk determination are then discussed. Finally, some thought is given to whether the extension of the risk concept has the potential to become more fundamental within the organisation and legitimisation of mental health care. PMID:22038745

  1. Hybrid EANN-EA System for the Primary Estimation of Cardiometabolic Risk.

    PubMed

    Kupusinac, Aleksandar; Stokić, Edita; Kovaćevic, Ilija

    2016-06-01

    The most important part of the early prevention of atherosclerosis and cardiovascular diseases is the estimation of the cardiometabolic risk (CMR). The CMR estimation can be divided into two phases. The first phase is called primary estimation of CMR (PE-CMR) and includes solely diagnostic methods that are non-invasive, easily-obtained, and low-cost. Since cardiovascular diseases are among the main causes of death in the world, it would be significant for regional health strategies to develop an intelligent software system for PE-CMR that would save time and money by extracting the persons with potentially higher CMR and conducting complete tests only on them. The development of such a software system has few limitations - dataset can be very large, data can not be collected at the same time and the same place (eg. data can be collected at different health institutions) and data of some other region are not applicable since every population has own features. This paper presents a MATLAB solution for PE-CMR based on the ensemble of well-learned artificial neural networks guided by evolutionary algorithm or shortly EANN-EA system. Our solution is suitable for research of CMR in population of some region and its accuracy is above 90 %. PMID:27106582

  2. Distribution of Major Health Risks: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

    PubMed Central

    2004-01-01

    ABSTRACT Background Most analyses of risks to health focus on the total burden of their aggregate effects. The distribution of risk-factor-attributable disease burden, for example by age or exposure level, can inform the selection and targeting of specific interventions and programs, and increase cost-effectiveness. Methods and Findings For 26 selected risk factors, expert working groups conducted comprehensive reviews of data on risk-factor exposure and hazard for 14 epidemiological subregions of the world, by age and sex. Age-sex-subregion-population attributable fractions were estimated and applied to the mortality and burden of disease estimates from the World Health Organization Global Burden of Disease database. Where possible, exposure levels were assessed as continuous measures, or as multiple categories. The proportion of risk-factor-attributable burden in different population subgroups, defined by age, sex, and exposure level, was estimated. For major cardiovascular risk factors (blood pressure, cholesterol, tobacco use, fruit and vegetable intake, body mass index, and physical inactivity) 43%–61% of attributable disease burden occurred between the ages of 15 and 59 y, and 87% of alcohol-attributable burden occurred in this age group. Most of the disease burden for continuous risks occurred in those with only moderately raised levels, not among those with levels above commonly used cut-points, such as those with hypertension or obesity. Of all disease burden attributable to being underweight during childhood, 55% occurred among children 1–3 standard deviations below the reference population median, and the remainder occurred among severely malnourished children, who were three or more standard deviations below median. Conclusions Many major global risks are widely spread in a population, rather than restricted to a minority. Population-based strategies that seek to shift the whole distribution of risk factors often have the potential to produce

  3. Occupational health and safety risks and potential health consequences perceived by U.S. workers, 1985.

    PubMed Central

    Shilling, S; Brackbill, R M

    1987-01-01

    Data from the Health Promotion and Disease Prevention Questionnaire, part of the 1985 National Health Interview Survey, were used to report workers' perceptions of occupational risk in their present jobs. This information will be used to monitor progress between 1985 and 1990 toward achieving broad goals in health promotion and disease prevention. The proportions of currently employed persons who perceived exposure to health-endangering substances, work conditions, or risks of injuries were reported for age, race, sex, and occupation groups. Occupational groups were further characterized by the proportion of men and women who reported specific exposures (such as exposure to chemicals or to loud noise) and specific health consequences of exposure (such as risk of developing cancer or hearing impairment). Greater proportions of men than women reported perceived risk from exposure to health-endangering substances, work conditions, and injuries in their present job. Also, a greater proportion of workers perceived risk of injury in their present job than other occupational risk categories. The greatest proportions of perceived exposure to occupational risk were reported by farm operators and managers, police and firefighters, and by workers in forestry and fishing occupations. Among workers reporting perceived exposures, chemicals, noise, and risk of injuries from vehicles were cited by the greatest proportion of workers, as were such health consequences as lung and respiratory problems and hearing impairment. Data from this study may be used to target employment groups for health promotion or education and to develop indepth studies of specific occupational groups to reduce or prevent risk at the worksite. PMID:3101121

  4. Assessing health risk due to exposure to arsenic in drinking water in Hanam Province, Vietnam.

    PubMed

    Huy, Tung Bui; Tuyet-Hanh, Tran Thi; Johnston, Richard; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2014-08-01

    We assessed health risks related to Arsenic (As) in contaminated drinking water in Hanam, applying the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework, which promotes stakeholder involvement in risk assessments. As concentrations in 300 tube-well water samples, before and after filtration, were analyzed and the water consumption levels in 150 households were estimated. Skin cancer risk was characterized using Cancer Slope Factor index and lifetime average daily dose with a probabilistic approach. The results showed that arsenic concentrations in tube-well water ranged from 8-579 ppb (mean 301 ppb) before filtration and current sand filters used by the households did not meet the standard for As removal. Arsenic daily consumption of 40% of the adults exceeded the level of TDI (Tolerable Daily Intake) at 1 µg/kg/day. The average skin cancer risk in adults due to consuming filtered tube-well water for drinking purpose were 25.3 × 10-5 (using only well water) and 7.6 × 10-5 (using both well and rain water). The skin cancer risk would be 11.5 times higher if the water was not filtered. Improvement of filtration measures or the replacement of the current drinking water sources to minimize the health risks to the local population is urgently needed. PMID:25062276

  5. Risk and management of blood-borne infections in health care workers.

    PubMed

    Beltrami, E M; Williams, I T; Shapiro, C N; Chamberland, M E

    2000-07-01

    Exposure to blood-borne pathogens poses a serious risk to health care workers (HCWs). We review the risk and management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in HCWs and also discuss current methods for preventing exposures and recommendations for postexposure prophylaxis. In the health care setting, blood-borne pathogen transmission occurs predominantly by percutaneous or mucosal exposure of workers to the blood or body fluids of infected patients. Prospective studies of HCWs have estimated that the average risk for HIV transmission after a percutaneous exposure is approximately 0.3%, the risk of HBV transmission is 6 to 30%, and the risk of HCV transmission is approximately 1.8%. To minimize the risk of blood-borne pathogen transmission from HCWs to patients, all HCWs should adhere to standard precautions, including the appropriate use of hand washing, protective barriers, and care in the use and disposal of needles and other sharp instruments. Employers should have in place a system that includes written protocols for prompt reporting, evaluation, counseling, treatment, and follow-up of occupational exposures that may place a worker at risk of blood-borne pathogen infection. A sustained commitment to the occupational health of all HCWs will ensure maximum protection for HCWs and patients and the availability of optimal medical care for all who need it. PMID:10885983

  6. Assessing Health Risk due to Exposure to Arsenic in Drinking Water in Hanam Province, Vietnam

    PubMed Central

    Bui Huy, Tung; Tuyet-Hanh, Tran Thi; Johnston, Richard; Nguyen-Viet, Hung

    2014-01-01

    We assessed health risks related to Arsenic (As) in contaminated drinking water in Hanam, applying the Australian Environmental Health Risk Assessment Framework, which promotes stakeholder involvement in risk assessments. As concentrations in 300 tube-well water samples, before and after filtration, were analyzed and the water consumption levels in 150 households were estimated. Skin cancer risk was characterized using Cancer Slope Factor index and lifetime average daily dose with a probabilistic approach. The results showed that arsenic concentrations in tube-well water ranged from 8–579 ppb (mean 301 ppb) before filtration and current sand filters used by the households did not meet the standard for As removal. Arsenic daily consumption of 40% of the adults exceeded the level of TDI (Tolerable Daily Intake) at 1 µg/kg/day. The average skin cancer risk in adults due to consuming filtered tube-well water for drinking purpose were 25.3 × 10−5 (using only well water) and 7.6 × 10−5 (using both well and rain water). The skin cancer risk would be 11.5 times higher if the water was not filtered. Improvement of filtration measures or the replacement of the current drinking water sources to minimize the health risks to the local population is urgently needed. PMID:25062276

  7. Risk and Management of Blood-Borne Infections in Health Care Workers

    PubMed Central

    Beltrami, Elise M.; Williams, Ian T.; Shapiro, Craig N.; Chamberland, Mary E.

    2000-01-01

    Exposure to blood-borne pathogens poses a serious risk to health care workers (HCWs). We review the risk and management of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in HCWs and also discuss current methods for preventing exposures and recommendations for postexposure prophylaxis. In the health care setting, blood-borne pathogen transmission occurs predominantly by percutaneous or mucosal exposure of workers to the blood or body fluids of infected patients. Prospective studies of HCWs have estimated that the average risk for HIV transmission after a percutaneous exposure is approximately 0.3%, the risk of HBV transmission is 6 to 30%, and the risk of HCV transmission is approximately 1.8%. To minimize the risk of blood-borne pathogen transmission from HCWs to patients, all HCWs should adhere to standard precautions, including the appropriate use of hand washing, protective barriers, and care in the use and disposal of needles and other sharp instruments. Employers should have in place a system that includes written protocols for prompt reporting, evaluation, counseling, treatment, and follow-up of occupational exposures that may place a worker at risk of blood-borne pathogen infection. A sustained commitment to the occupational health of all HCWs will ensure maximum protection for HCWs and patients and the availability of optimal medical care for all who need it. PMID:10885983

  8. Associations between multiple health risk behaviors and mental health among Chinese college students.

    PubMed

    Ye, Yong-ling; Wang, Pei-gang; Qu, Geng-cong; Yuan, Shuai; Phongsavan, Philayrath; He, Qi-qiang

    2016-01-01

    Although there is substantial evidence that health risk behaviors increase risks of premature morbidity and mortality, little is known about the multiple health risk behaviors in Chinese college students. Here, we investigated the prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors and its relation to mental health among Chinese college students. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Wuhan, China from May to June 2012. The students reported their health risk behaviors using self-administered questionnaires. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the self-rating depression scale and self-rating anxiety scale, respectively. A total of 2422 college students (1433 males) aged 19.7 ± 1.2 years were participated in the study. The prevalence of physical inactivity, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior, Internet addiction disorder (IAD), frequent alcohol use and current smoking was 62.0, 42.6, 29.8, 22.3, 11.6 and 9.3%, respectively. Significantly increased risks for depression and anxiety were found among students with frequent alcohol use, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior and IAD. Two-step cluster analysis identified two different clusters. Participants in the cluster with more unhealthy behaviors showed significantly increased risk for depression (odds ratio (OR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.67) and anxiety (OR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.92). This study indicates that a relatively high prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors was found among Chinese college students. Furthermore, the clustering of health risk behaviors was significantly associated with increased risks for depression and anxiety. PMID:26222809

  9. Pathways from childhood abuse and other adversities to adult health risks: The role of adult socioeconomic conditions.

    PubMed

    Font, Sarah A; Maguire-Jack, Kathryn

    2016-01-01

    Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), including child abuse, have been linked with poor health outcomes in adulthood. The mechanisms that explain these relations are less understood. This study assesses whether associations of ACEs and health risks are mediated by adult socioeconomic conditions, and whether these pathways are different for maltreatment than for other types of adversities. Using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System 2012 survey (N=29,229), we employ structural equation modeling to (1) estimate associations of the number and type of ACEs with five health risks-depression, obesity, tobacco use, binge drinking, and self-reported sub-optimal health; and (2) assess whether adult socioeconomic conditions-marriage, divorce and separation, educational attainment, income and insurance status-mediate those associations. Findings suggest both direct and indirect associations between ACEs and health risks. At high numbers of ACEs, 15-20% of the association between number of ACEs and adult health risks was attributable to socioeconomic conditions. Associations of three ACEs (exposure to domestic violence, parental divorce, and residing with a person who was incarcerated) with health risks were nearly entirely explained by socioeconomic conditions in adulthood. However, child physical, emotional, and sexual abuse were significantly associated with several adult health risks, beyond the effects of other adversities, and socioeconomic conditions explained only a small portion of these associations. These findings suggest that the pathways to poor adult health differ by types of ACEs, and that childhood abuse is more likely than other adversities to have a direct impact. PMID:26059537

  10. The impact of communicating genetic risks of disease on risk-reducing health behaviour: systematic review with meta-analysis

    PubMed Central

    Hollands, Gareth J; French, David P; Griffin, Simon J; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; King, Sarah

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the impact of communicating DNA based disease risk estimates on risk-reducing health behaviours and motivation to engage in such behaviours. Design Systematic review with meta-analysis, using Cochrane methods. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, CINAHL, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials up to 25 February 2015. Backward and forward citation searches were also conducted. Study selection Randomised and quasi-randomised controlled trials involving adults in which one group received personalised DNA based estimates of disease risk for conditions where risk could be reduced by behaviour change. Eligible studies included a measure of risk-reducing behaviour. Results We examined 10 515 abstracts and included 18 studies that reported on seven behavioural outcomes, including smoking cessation (six studies; n=2663), diet (seven studies; n=1784), and physical activity (six studies; n=1704). Meta-analysis revealed no significant effects of communicating DNA based risk estimates on smoking cessation (odds ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval 0.63 to 1.35, P=0.67), diet (standardised mean difference 0.12, 95% confidence interval −0.00 to 0.24, P=0.05), or physical activity (standardised mean difference −0.03, 95% confidence interval −0.13 to 0.08, P=0.62). There were also no effects on any other behaviours (alcohol use, medication use, sun protection behaviours, and attendance at screening or behavioural support programmes) or on motivation to change behaviour, and no adverse effects, such as depression and anxiety. Subgroup analyses provided no clear evidence that communication of a risk-conferring genotype affected behaviour more than communication of the absence of such a genotype. However, studies were predominantly at high or unclear risk of bias, and evidence was typically of low quality. Conclusions Expectations that communicating DNA based risk estimates changes behaviour is not supported by existing evidence

  11. Environmental degradation and health risks in Beijing, China.

    PubMed

    Qi, Jun; Yang, Linsheng; Wang, Wuyi

    2007-01-01

    As China's capital city, Beijing is experiencing unprecedented environmental degradation accompanied by complex interactions between urbanization and global environmental change, which places human health at risk on a large spatial and temporal scale. For sustainable development that supports environmental and human health in Beijing and during the upcoming "green" Olympic games in 2008, experts and political leaders must acknowledge the urgent health risks from environmental changes related to urbanization. A range of urban health hazards and associated health risks in Beijing result from a variety of factors including heat islands, air pollution, water crisis, soil pollution, infectious diseases, and urban consumerism; in addition, some hazardous health conditions are associated with inequality in living and working conditions. The authors suggest 2 main areas for policy action and research direction: (1) the need to get full-scale information related to environmental monitoring data and health data (and then to provide new methodological approaches and techniques to implement interventions) and (2) the need for effective cooperation among different sectors. PMID:18171645

  12. Estimating uncertainty in policy analysis: health effects from inhaled sulfur oxides

    SciTech Connect

    Amaral, D.A.L.

    1983-01-01

    This study presents methods for the incorporation of uncertainty into quanitative analysis of the problem of estimating health risks from coal-fired power plants. Probabilistic long-range models of sulfur material balance and sets of plume trajectories are combined to produce probabilistic estimates of population exposure to sulfur air pollution for the addition of a hypothetical coal-burning power plant in the Ohio River Valley. In another segment, the change in population exposure which might occur if ambient sulfate were to be reduced everywhere in the northeastern United States is calculated. A third case is made up of a set of hypothetical urban and rural scenarios representing typical northeastern situations. Models of health impacts obtained through the elicitation of subjective expert judgment are applied to each of these population exposure estimates. Seven leading experts in the field of sulfur air pollution and health participated, yielding five quantitative models for morbidity and/or mortality effects from human exposure to ambient sulfate. In each case analyzed, the predictions based on probability distributions provided by the experts spanned several orders of magnitude, including some predictions of zero effects and some of up to a few percent of the total morality. It is concluded that uncertainty about whether sulfate has adverse effects dominates the scientific uncertainty about the atmospheric processes which generate and transport this pollutant.

  13. State Estimates of Adolescent Cigarette Use and Perceptions of Risk of Smoking: 2012 and 2013

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2015 STATE ESTIMATES OF ADOLESCENT CIGARETTE USE AND PERCEPTIONS OF RISK OF SMOKING: 2012 AND 2013 AUTHORS ... with an inverse association between use and risk perceptions (i.e., the prevalence of use is lower ...

  14. Estimating the risks of multiple, covarying stressors in the National Lakes Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    The National Lakes Assessment (NLA) used relative and attributable risks to measure the apparent nationwide effects of excess nitrogen, reduced lakeshore habitat, and other stressors, on planktonic assemblages in lakes. The risk measures, borrowed from human health research,...

  15. Health risk assessment for residents exposed to atmospheric diesel exhaust particles in southern region of Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chio, Chia-Pin; Liao, Chung-Min; Tsai, Ying-I.; Cheng, Man-Ting; Chou, Wei-Chun

    2014-03-01

    Evidence shows a strong association among air pollution, oxidative stress (OS), deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) damage, and diseases. Recent studies indicated that the aging, human neurodegenerative diseases and cancers resulted from mitochondrial dysfunction and OS. The purpose of this study is to provide a probabilistic risk assessment model to quantify the atmospheric diesel exhaust particles (DEP)-induced pre-cancer biomarker response and cancer incidence risk for residents in south Taiwan. We conducted entirely monthly particulate matter sampling data at five sites in Kaohsiung of south Taiwan in the period 2002-2003. Three findings were found: (i) the DEP dose estimates and cancer risk quantification had heterogeneously spatiotemporal difference in south Taiwan, (ii) the pre-cancer DNA damage biomarker and cancer incidence estimates had a positive yet insignificant association, and (iii) all the estimates of cancer incidence in south Taiwan populations fell within and slight lower than the values from previous cancer epidemiological investigations. In this study, we successfully assessed the tumor incidence for residents posed by DEP exposure in south Taiwan compared with the epidemiological approach. Our approach provides a unique way for assessing human health risk for residences exposed to atmospheric DEP depending on specific combinations of local and regional conditions. Our work implicates the importance of incorporating both environmental and health risk impacts into models of air pollution exposure to guide adaptive mitigation strategies.

  16. Asbestos in the air of public buildings: a public health risk?

    PubMed

    Whysner, J; Covello, V T; Kuschner, M; Rifkind, A B; Rozman, K K; Trichopoulos, D; Williams, G M

    1994-01-01

    The Environmental Health and Safety Council of the American Health Foundation has examined current estimates of cancer risks associated with the presence of asbestos-containing materials (ACM) in public buildings. The Council finds that even complete removal of asbestos from all of these buildings will provide no measurable benefit to public health. The removal of nonfriable ACM only can be postulated to protect the public against a small hypothetical risk that cannot be measured epidemiologically. Moreover, examination of the assumptions used in the risk assessment calculations leads to the conclusion that these small calculated risks are likely to represent overestimates. In recent surveys, the measured asbestos levels in indoor air cast some doubt on whether occupant exposure to asbestos levels are contributed to significantly by ACM even when some of the material is friable or in bad condition. Furthermore, the models used for cancer risk estimates assume no threshold level for cancer and conclude that any exposure is carcinogenic. This may be unjustified in light of information on the mechanisms for some asbestos-caused disease. Based on the best available data, it is very unlikely that cancer will result from indoor asbestos exposure, especially where ACM is well maintained. PMID:8016027

  17. Risk Estimates From an Online Risk Calculator Are More Believable and Recalled Better When Expressed as Integers

    PubMed Central

    Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Waters, Erika A; Gavaruzzi, Teresa; Fagerlin, Angela

    2011-01-01

    Background Online risk calculators offer different levels of precision in their risk estimates. People interpret numbers in varying ways depending on how they are presented, and we do not know how the number of decimal places displayed might influence perceptions of risk estimates. Objective The objective of our study was to determine whether precision (ie, number of decimals) in risk estimates offered by an online risk calculator influences users’ ratings of (1) how believable the estimate is, (2) risk magnitude (ie, how large or small the risk feels to them), and (3) how well they can recall the risk estimate after a brief delay. Methods We developed two mock risk calculator websites that offered hypothetical percentage estimates of participants’ lifetime risk of kidney cancer. Participants were randomly assigned to a condition where the risk estimate value rose with increasing precision (2, 2.1, 2.13, 2.133) or the risk estimate value fell with increasing precision (2, 1.9, 1.87, 1.867). Within each group, participants were randomly assigned one of the four numbers as their first risk estimate, and later received one of the remaining three as a comparison. Results Participants who completed the experiment (N = 3422) were a demographically diverse online sample, approximately representative of the US adult population on age, gender, and race. Participants whose risk estimates had no decimal places gave the highest ratings of believability (F 3,3384 = 2.94, P = .03) and the lowest ratings of risk magnitude (F 3,3384 = 4.70, P = .003). Compared to estimates with decimal places, integer estimates were judged as highly believable by 7%–10% more participants (χ2 3 =17.8, P < .001). When comparing two risk estimates with different levels of precision, large majorities of participants reported that the numbers seemed equivalent across all measures. Both exact and approximate recall were highest for estimates with zero decimals. Odds ratios (OR) for correct

  18. Estimating the Global Public Health Implications of Electricity and Coal Consumption

    PubMed Central

    Thomas, Reuben; Woodward, Alistair; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Prüss-üstün, Annette; Hales, Simon; Portier, Christopher J.

    2011-01-01

    Background: The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity. Objectives: We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes. Methods: Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year’s LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results. Results: The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation. Conclusions: Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts. PMID:21339091

  19. Hospital Expenditure at the End-of-Life: What Are the Impacts of Health Status and Health Risks?

    PubMed Central

    Geue, Claudia; Lorgelly, Paula; Lewsey, James; Hart, Carole; Briggs, Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Background It is important for health policy and expenditure projections to understand the relationship between age, death and expenditure on health care (HC). Research has shown that older age groups incur lower hospital costs than previously anticipated and that remaining time to death (TTD) was a much stronger indicator for expenditure than age. How health behaviour or risk factors impact on HC utilisation and costs at the end of life is relatively unknown. Smoking and Body Mass Index (BMI) have featured most prominently and mixed findings exist as to the exact nature of this association. Methods This paper considers the relationship between TTD, age and expenditure for inpatient care in the last 12 quarters of life; and introduces measures of health status and risks. A longitudinal dataset covering 35 years is utilised, including baseline survey data linked to hospital and death records. The effect of age, TTD and health indicators on expenditure for inpatient care is estimated using a two-part model. Results As individuals approach death costs increase. This effect is highly significant (p<0.01) from the last until the 8th quarter before death and influenced by age. Statistically significant effects on costs were found for: smoking status, systolic blood pressure and lung function (FEV1). On average, smokers incurred lower quarterly costs in their last 12 quarters of life than non-smokers (~7%). Participants’ BMI at baseline did show a negative association with probability of HC utilisation however this effect disappeared when costs were estimated. Conclusions Health risk measures obtained at baseline provide a good indication of individuals’ probability of needing medical attention later in life and incurring costs, despite the small size of the effect. Utilising a linked dataset, where such measures are available can add substantially to our ability to explain the relationship between TTD and costs. PMID:25746728

  20. Perceived Risk of Mental Health Problems in Primary Care

    PubMed Central

    Paúl, Constança; Teixeira, Laetitia; Azevedo, Maria João; Alves, Sara; Duarte, Mafalda; O’Caoimh, Rónán; Molloy, William

    2015-01-01

    In the face of limited resources and an aging population with increasingly care needs, healthcare systems must identify community-dwelling older adults with mental health problems at higher risk of adverse outcomes such as institutionalization, hospitalization and death, in order to deliver timely and efficient care. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of mental health concerns and the associated perceived risk of adverse outcomes in a large sample of older patients in primary care (PC). We trained general practitioners and nurses to use the Risk Instrument for Screening in the Community to rank perceived risk of mental health concerns (including neurocognitive and mood disorders) from 1 (mild) to 3 (severe). The mean age of the 4499 people assessed was 76.3 years (SD = 7.3) and 2645 (58.8%) were female. According to the PC team 1616 (35.9%) were perceived to have mental health concerns of whom 847 (52.4%) were mild, 559 (34.6%) were moderate and 210 (13%) were severe. Patients with mental health concerns had higher odds of perceived risk of adverse outcomes (OR = 2.22, 95% CI 1.83–2.69 for institutionalization; OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.41–1.94 for hospitalization; OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.42–2.01 for death). These results suggest a high prevalence of mental health concerns among older adults and supports the need for early identification of patients at high-risk of adverse healthcare outcomes. PMID:26635600

  1. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management-global radiocontamination and information disaster.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-06-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the "Fukushima Health Management Survey Project" for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  2. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Project” for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  3. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  4. A Review of Health Risks and Pathways for Exposure to Wastewater Use in Agriculture

    PubMed Central

    Dickin, Sarah K.; Schuster-Wallace, Corinne J.; Qadir, Manzoor; Pizzacalla, Katherine

    2016-01-01

    Background: Wastewater is increasingly being used in the agricultural sector to cope with the depletion of freshwater resources as well as water stress linked to changing climate conditions. As wastewater irrigation expands, research focusing on the human health risks is critical because exposure to a range of contaminants must be weighed with the benefits to food security, nutrition and livelihoods. Objectives: The goal of this paper was to review research examining health risks and exposure pathways associated with wastewater irrigation to identify research trends and gaps. Methods: We conducted a review of the literature and identified a total of 126 studies published from 1995 to 2013. Findings were summarized based on several themes including types of exposure pathways, wastewater contaminants, methodological approaches and the geographical distribution of research. Results: Only 23 studies used epidemiological methods, while most research applied alternative methods to estimate risk, such as quantitative risk assessment models or comparisons of crop contamination to established guidelines for wastewater reuse. A geographic breakdown demonstrated a focus on microbiological contaminants in specific regions such as sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia, despite growing chemical risks associated with rapid urbanization and industrialization that may change the types and distribution of wastewater contaminants. Conclusions: To provide a more comprehensive understanding of the health risks of wastewater use in agriculture, future research should consider multiple exposure routes, long-term health implications, and increase the range of contaminants studied, particularly in regions heavily dependent on wastewater irrigation. Citation: Dickin SK, Schuster-Wallace CJ, Qadir M, Pizzacalla K. 2016. A review of health risks and pathways for exposure to wastewater use in agriculture. Environ Health Perspect 124:900–909; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1509995 PMID

  5. Concurrent multiple health risk behaviors among adolescents in Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Multiple health risk behaviors (HRBs) among adolescents pose a threat to their health, including HIV/AIDS. Health risk behaviors such as alcohol use, smoking, substance use, and sexual risk behaviors among youth have been shown to co-occur with each others. The objectives of this study was to estimate the prevalence of single and concurrent health risk behaviors and to explore how health risk behavior is associated with socio-demographic factors and peers' behaviors. Methods A cross sectional design was used to examine health risk behaviors of adolescents between the age 14 and 19 years living in the Luangnamtha province, Lao PDR. The study was conducted between June and August, 2008. An ordinal logistic regression model that simultaneously explored demographic factors and the influence of the behavior of peers on three categories of multiple HRBs (no risk, one risk, and two or more health risk behaviors) was performed. Results A total of 1360 respondents, 669 (49.1%) boys with mean age 16.7 ± 1.6 and 699 (50.9%) girls aged 16.1 ± 1.5 were recruited into the study. The majority reported two or fewer risk behaviors. However, multiple risk behaviors increased with age for both sexes. About 46.8% (n = 637) reported no risk, 39.3 percent (n = 535) reported one risk, 8.1 percent (n = 110) reported two risks, and 5.8 percent reported more than two health risk behaviors. The protective factors among boys were school attendance (OR = .53, CI = .33-.86), being Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = .48, CI-.26-.90), while being above the age of 15 (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.33-3.60), Akha ethnicity (OR = 2.20, 95% CI = 1.04-4.61), peer's smoking (OR = 3.11, 95% CI = 2.1-4.6), and peer's drinking alcohol (OR = 1.88, 95% CI = 1.1-3.21) were significantly associated with the presence of multiple risk behaviors among boys. Having some education (OR = 0.17, 95% CI = 0.06-0.45), and being of Hmong and Yao ethnicity (OR = 0.38, 95% CI = 0.18-0.80) were factors that protected girls

  6. Health of North American forests: Stress and risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, W.H. )

    1990-01-01

    The 1980s will be remembered by forest professionals as a decade of intense and widespread societal concern for the vitality and integrity of forest systems. Daily reports of tropical deforestation and temperate forest decline have heightened social consciousness of forest health. It is therefore appropriate, as we enter the 1990s, to assess the health of our forests and propose new initiatives in this critically important area. Making generalizations about the health of North American forests is difficult because of the extraordinary diversity of forests, management regimes, and stress factors. This overview article summarizes forest health fundamentals, significant health risks, and priorities in future forest health management for temperate forests of the United States.

  7. Impact of actinide recycle on nuclear fuel cycle health risks

    SciTech Connect

    Michaels, G.E.

    1992-06-01

    The purpose of this background paper is to summarize what is presently known about potential impacts on the impacts on the health risk of the nuclear fuel cycle form deployment of the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR){sup 1} and Integral Fast Reactor (IF){sup 2} technology as an actinide burning system. In a companion paper the impact on waste repository risk is addressed in some detail. Therefore, this paper focuses on the remainder of the fuel cycle.

  8. Effective Health Risk Communication About Pandemic Influenza for Vulnerable Populations

    PubMed Central

    Tinker, Timothy

    2009-01-01

    The consequences of pandemic influenza for vulnerable populations will depend partly on the effectiveness of health risk communications. Strategic planning should fully consider how life circumstances, cultural values, and perspectives on risk influence behavior during a pandemic. We summarize recent scientific evidence on communication challenges and examine how sociocultural, economic, psychological, and health factors can jeopardize or facilitate public health interventions that require a cooperative public. If ignored, current communication gaps for vulnerable populations could result in unequal protection across society during an influenza pandemic. We offer insights on communication preparedness gleaned from scientific studies and the deliberations of public health experts at a meeting convened by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, May 1 and 2, 2008. PMID:19797744

  9. Historical perspectives on the uses and health risks of beryllium

    SciTech Connect

    Preuss, O.P.

    1985-07-01

    Unawareness of the health risks of beryllium resulted in a decade of unmitigated exposure of several thousand workers and numerous cases of beryllium disease in employees and nearby residents. Subsequent adoption of exposure limits and their implementation with effective technical controls reduced the occurrence of new cases, which were mainly due to accidental exposures, to a minimum. The fact that continuously growing production and consumption did not alter this trend demonstrates the effectiveness of the present threshold limit value. It shows that the potential health hazard can be well contained and that beryllium can be produced and fabricated without undue risk to employees or the general public.

  10. A Model for Risk Assessment in Health Care.

    PubMed

    Prijatelj, Vesna; Rajkovič, Vladislav; Šušteršič, Olga

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of our research is to reduce risks and hence prevent errors in the health care process. The aim is to design an organizational information model using error prevention methods for risk assessment in a clinical setting. The model is based on selected indicators of quality nursing care, resulting from the world-known theoretical and practical models combined with experience in the Slovenian health care. The proposed organizational information model and software solution has a significant impact on the professional attention, communication and information, critical thinking, experience and knowledge. PMID:27332383

  11. Health insurance and the demand for medical care: Instrumental variable estimates using health insurer claims data.

    PubMed

    Dunn, Abe

    2016-07-01

    This paper takes a different approach to estimating demand for medical care that uses the negotiated prices between insurers and providers as an instrument. The instrument is viewed as a textbook "cost shifting" instrument that impacts plan offerings, but is unobserved by consumers. The paper finds a price elasticity of demand of around -0.20, matching the elasticity found in the RAND Health Insurance Experiment. The paper also studies within-market variation in demand for prescription drugs and other medical care services and obtains comparable price elasticity estimates. PMID:27107371

  12. Overweight, Obesity, Youth, and Health-Risk Behaviors

    PubMed Central

    Farhat, Tilda; Iannotti, Ronald J.; Simons-Morton, Bruce

    2010-01-01

    Background The prevalence and severity of obesity have increased among children and adolescents. While the medical and psychosocial consequences of youth obesity have been well-documented, less information exists on the association of overweight/obesity with health risk behaviors, which are considered to be a primary threat to adolescent health. Objectives This study examined the association of overweight and obesity with health-risk behaviors among U.S. youth. Methods Self-reported height and weight, substance use, violence and bullying were assessed in a nationally representative sample of students aged 11 to 17 years (N=7825) who participated in the 2005/6 Health Behaviors in School-Aged Children survey. Data were analyzed in 2009. Results Significant gender and age differences in the relationship of overweight/obesity with risk behaviors were observed. Overweight and obesity were significantly associated with substance use among girls only: frequent smoking and drinking were associated with overweight and obesity among younger girls, whereas they were associated with obesity among older girls. Frequent smoking and cannabis use were associated with overweight among younger girls only. Relationships between violent behavior and overweight/obesity were mainly observed among boys: Younger obese boys were more likely to be victims of bullying, whereas older obese boys were more likely to carry weapons, compared to boys of normal weight. Conclusions Overweight and obese youth are at risk of developing health compromising behaviors which may compound medical and social problems associated with excess weight. PMID:20171527

  13. Health benefits and risks of plant proteins.

    PubMed

    Krajcovicova-Kudlackova, M; Babinska, K; Valachovicova, M

    2005-01-01

    Plant proteins have a reduced content of essential amino acids in comparison to animal proteins. A significant reduction of limiting amino acids (methionine, lysine, tryptophan) means lower protein synthesis. In subjects with predominant or exclusive consumption of plant food a higher incidence of hypoproteinemia due to significant reduction of methionine and lysine intakes was observed. On the other hand, lower intake of these amino acids provides a preventive effect against cardiovascular disease via cholesterol regulation by an inhibited hepatic phospholipid metabolism. Vegetarians have a significantly higher intake of non-essential amino acids arginine and pyruvigenic amino acids glycine, alanine, serine. When plant protein is high in non-essential amino acids, down-regulation of insulin and up-regulation of glucagon is a logical consequence. The action of glucagon in the liver is mediated by stimulation of adenyl cyclase that raises cyclic-AMP (adenosine-3,5-monophosphate) concentrations. Cyclic-AMP down-regulates the synthesis of a number of enzymes required for de novo lipogenesis and cholesterol synthesis, up-regulates key gluconeogenic enzymes and the LDL receptors and decreases the IGF-1 activity (insulin-like growth factor). Cyclic-AMP thus provides a reduction of atherosclerosis risk factors as well as a retardation of cancer development. A sufficient consumption of plant proteins has the protective effects against chronic degenerative diseases (Tab. 2, Ref. 26). PMID:16201743

  14. Cancer risk estimation caused by radiation exposure during endovascular procedure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kang, Y. H.; Cho, J. H.; Yun, W. S.; Park, K. H.; Kim, H. G.; Kwon, S. M.

    2014-05-01

    The objective of this study was to identify the radiation exposure dose of patients, as well as staff caused by fluoroscopy for C-arm-assisted vascular surgical operation and to estimate carcinogenic risk due to such exposure dose. The study was conducted in 71 patients (53 men and 18 women) who had undergone vascular surgical intervention at the division of vascular surgery in the University Hospital from November of 2011 to April of 2012. It had used a mobile C-arm device and calculated the radiation exposure dose of patient (dose-area product, DAP). Effective dose was measured by attaching optically stimulated luminescence on the radiation protectors of staff who participates in the surgery to measure the radiation exposure dose of staff during the vascular surgical operation. From the study results, DAP value of patients was 308.7 Gy cm2 in average, and the maximum value was 3085 Gy cm2. When converted to the effective dose, the resulted mean was 6.2 m Gy and the maximum effective dose was 61.7 milliSievert (mSv). The effective dose of staff was 3.85 mSv; while the radiation technician was 1.04 mSv, the nurse was 1.31 mSv. All cancer incidences of operator are corresponding to 2355 persons per 100,000 persons, which deemed 1 of 42 persons is likely to have all cancer incidences. In conclusion, the vascular surgeons should keep the radiation protection for patient, staff, and all participants in the intervention in mind as supervisor of fluoroscopy while trying to understand the effects by radiation by themselves to prevent invisible danger during the intervention and to minimize the harm.

  15. Estimating Risk of Alcohol Dependence Using Alcohol Screening Scores*

    PubMed Central

    Rubinsky, Anna D.; Kivlahan, Daniel R.; Volk, Robert J.; Maynard, Charles; Bradley, Katharine A.

    2010-01-01

    Brief alcohol counseling interventions can reduce alcohol consumption and related morbidity among non-dependent risky drinkers, but more intensive alcohol treatment is recommended for persons with alcohol dependence. This study evaluated whether scores on common alcohol screening tests could identify patients likely to have current alcohol dependence so that more appropriate follow-up assessment and/or intervention could be offered. This cross-sectional study used secondary data from 392 male and 927 female adult family medicine outpatients (1993–1994). Likelihood ratios were used to empirically identify and evaluate ranges of scores of the AUDIT, the AUDIT-C, two single-item questions about frequency of binge drinking, and the CAGE questionnaire for detecting DSM-IV past-year alcohol dependence. Based on the prevalence of past-year alcohol dependence in this sample (men: 12.2%; women: 5.8%), zones of the AUDIT and AUDIT-C identified wide variability in the post-screening risk of alcohol dependence in men and women, even among those who screened positive for alcohol misuse. Among men, AUDIT zones 5–10, 11–14 and 15–40 were associated with post-screening probabilities of past-year alcohol dependence ranging from 18–87%, and AUDIT-C zones 5–6, 7–9 and 10–12 were associated with probabilities ranging from 22–75%. Among women, AUDIT zones 3–4, 5–8, 9–12 and 13–40 were associated with post-screening probabilities of past-year alcohol dependence ranging from 6–94%, and AUDIT-C zones 3, 4–6, 7–9 and 10–12 were associated with probabilities ranging from 9–88%. AUDIT or AUDIT-C scores could be used to estimate the probability of past-year alcohol dependence among patients who screen positive for alcohol misuse and inform clinical decision-making. PMID:20042299

  16. Health risk implications from simultaneous exposure to multiple environmental contaminants.

    PubMed

    Genthe, B; Le Roux, W J; Schachtschneider, K; Oberholster, P J; Aneck-Hahn, N H; Chamier, J

    2013-07-01

    Water quality has deteriorated in the upper Olifants River system, South Africa, as a result of land use activities which include mining, agriculture and industries. A health risk assessment was conducted from 2009 to 2011 in the catchment to determine the possible risks local communities face from various pollutants such as microbials, heavy metals and oestrogen in the river water and vegetation. Aluminium and manganese accumulated in plants and vanadium and aluminium concentrations found in selective water samples posed significant health risks when consumed. A quantitative microbial risk assessment revealed that the combined risk of infection ranged from 1 to 26 percent with the Norovirus posing the overall greatest health risk. The anticipated disability adjusted life years resulting from drinking untreated water from these sites are in the order of 10,000 times greater than what is considered acceptable. The oestradiol activity, caused by endocrine disrupting compounds in the water, measured above the trigger value of 0.7ngL(-1). Impoverished communities in the area, who partially depend on river water for potable and domestic use, are exposed to immune-compromising metals that increase their probability of infection from waterborne diseases caused by the excess microbial pathogens in the contaminated surface water. PMID:23669339

  17. Human and Animal Sentinels for Shared Health Risks

    PubMed Central

    Rabinowitz, Peter; Scotch, Matthew; Conti, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    Summary The tracking of sentinel health events in humans in order to detect and manage disease risks facing a larger population is a well accepted technique applied to influenza, occupational conditions, and emerging infectious diseases. Similarly, animal health professionals routinely track disease events in sentinel animal colonies and sentinel herds. The use of animals as sentinels for human health threats, or of humans as sentinels for animal disease risk, dates back at least to the era when coal miners brought caged canaries into mines to provide early warning of toxic gases. Yet the full potential of linking animal and human health information to provide warning of such “shared risks” from environmental hazards has not been realized. Reasons appear to include the professional segregation of human and animal health communities, the separation of human and animal surveillance data, and evidence gaps in the linkages between human and animal responses to environmental health hazards. The One Health initiative and growing international collaboration in response to pandemic threats, coupled with development the fields of informatics and genomics, hold promise for improved sharing of knowledge about sentinel events in order to detect and reduce environmental health threats shared between species. PMID:20148187

  18. Human Health Risk Assessment Calculator. In: SMARTe20ll, EPA/600/C-10/007

    EPA Science Inventory

    This calculator is aimed at supporting a human health risk assessment. Risk scenarios can be built by combining various health effects, exposure pathways, exposure parameters, and analytes. Scenario risk are calculated for each exposure pathway and analyte combination. The out...

  19. The Impact of Preventive Health Behaviors and Risk Factors on Health Status of Ghanaians

    PubMed Central

    Saeed, Bashiru I. I.; Abdul-Aziz, A. R.; Nguah, Samuel Blay; Zhao, Xicang

    2013-01-01

    The article here investigated the impact of Preventive Health Behaviors and Risk Factors as measures of Health Status of Ghanaians. We carry out a cross-sectional analysis of 5573 adults who participated and had indicated that they needed to state their health description in the three years prior to the phase 2007 World Health Organization, a study on Global Ageing and Adult health (SAGE) conducted in Ghana. The ordinal logistic regression model was employed for analysis using R. The results suggest that, there is incontrovertible evidence showing a strong relationship between preventive health behaviors and health status of Ghanaians. Again, the lifestyle of Ghanaians clearly manifests in their positive correlation with the good and moderate health state due to the high percentage (38.96% and 39.04%) respectively. The outcome points to a potential link with the Ghanaian social and health policies. PMID:23985114

  20. Substance Use and Mental Health Estimates from the 2013 National Survey on Drug Use and Health-Overview of Findings

    MedlinePlus

    ... and mental health issues. IN BRIEF XX An estimated 24.6 million individuals aged 12 or older ... including 1.6 million adolescents. XX Of the estimated 22.7 million individuals aged 12 or older ...

  1. A profile of health risks among blue-collar workers.

    PubMed

    Gottlieb, N H; Weinstein, R P; Baun, W B; Bernacki, E J

    1992-01-01

    Despite national objectives for extending health promotion programs to blue-collar workers and to small work sites, baseline behavior information for planning such programs is lacking. This study seeks to describe the health risks and norms specific to a population of male, blue-collar gas pipeline workers in remote sites. These workers (n = 395) completed a health risk appraisal and a "health gauge" survey designed to measure nutrition, physical activity, tobacco use, participatory patterns in health-enhancing activities, group norms, and change efforts. Selected behaviors were similar to those of other Texas men (eg, smoking 27% versus 26%) although others were not (eg, smokeless tobacco 18% versus 8%). Multivariate analysis confirmed the relationship of friends' behavior patterns, risk-taking, and interpersonal experience to four lifestyle health behaviors. With 75% or more of workers expressing an interest in various programs, the findings suggest that programming for this population can be successful if tailored to current behaviors and the worksite culture. PMID:1552385

  2. Children in nonparental care: health and social risks.

    PubMed

    Beal, Sarah J; Greiner, Mary V

    2016-01-01

    Approximately 2.3 million children in the United States live separately from both parents; 70-90% of those children live with a relative. Compared with children living with one or both parents, children in nonparental care are in poorer health, are at heightened risk for experiencing disruptions and instability in caregiving, and are vulnerable to other social antecedents of child health (e.g., neglect, poverty, maltreatment). Given the significant impact of adversity in childhood on health across the lifespan, which is increased among children in nonparental care, it is informative to consider the health risks of children living in nonparental care specifically. Research examining the contributions of poverty, instability, child maltreatment, and living in nonparental care, including meta-analyses of existing studies, are warranted. Longitudinal studies describing pathways into and out of nonparental care and the course of health throughout those experiences are also needed. Despite these identified gaps, there is sufficient evidence to indicate that attention to household structure is not only relevant but also essential for the clinical care of children and may aid in identifying youth at risk for developing poor health across the lifespan. PMID:26466078

  3. Risk management assessment of Health Maintenance Organisations participating in the National Health Insurance Scheme

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Princess Christina; Korie, Patrick Chukwuemeka; Nnaji, Feziechukwu Collins

    2014-01-01

    Background: The National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS), operated majorly in Nigeria by health maintenance organisations (HMOs), took off formally in June 2005. In view of the inherent risks in the operation of any social health insurance, it is necessary to efficiently manage these risks for sustainability of the scheme. Consequently the risk-management strategies deployed by HMOs need regular assessment. This study assessed the risk management in the Nigeria social health insurance scheme among HMOs. Materials and Methods: Cross-sectional survey of 33 HMOs participating in the NHIS. Results: Utilisation of standard risk-management strategies by the HMOs was 11 (52.6%). The other risk-management strategies not utilised in the NHIS 10 (47.4%) were risk equalisation and reinsurance. As high as 11 (52.4%) of participating HMOs had a weak enrollee base (less than 30,000 and poor monthly premium and these impacted negatively on the HMOs such that a large percentage 12 (54.1%) were unable to meet up with their financial obligations. Most of the HMOs 15 (71.4%) participated in the Millennium development goal (MDG) maternal and child health insurance programme. Conclusions: Weak enrollee base and poor monthly premium predisposed the HMOs to financial risk which impacted negatively on the overall performance in service delivery in the NHIS, further worsened by the non-utilisation of risk equalisation and reinsurance as risk-management strategies in the NHIS. There is need to make the scheme compulsory and introduce risk equalisation and reinsurance. PMID:25298605

  4. Exploring Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks: a photographic approach to risk analysis.

    PubMed

    Börner, Susanne; Albino, Juan Carlos Torrico; Caraveo, Luz María Nieto; Tejeda, Ana Cristina Cubillas

    2015-05-01

    The objective of this study was to explore Mexican adolescents' perceptions of environmental health risks in contaminated urban areas, and to test the environmental photography technique as a research tool for engaging adolescents in community-based health research. The study was conducted with 74 adolescents from two communities in the city of San Luis Potosi, Mexico. Participants were provided with disposable cameras and asked to take photographs of elements and situations which they believed affected their personal health both at home and outside their homes. They were also asked to describe each photograph in writing. Photographs and written explanations were analyzed by using quantitative and qualitative content analysis. Risk perception plays a crucial role in the development of Risk Communication Programs (RCPs) aimed at the improvement of community health. The photography technique opens up a promising field for environmental health research since it affords a realistic and concise impression of the perceived risks. Adolescents in both communities perceived different environmental health risks as detrimental to their well-being, e.g. waste, air pollution, and lack of hygiene. Yet, some knowledge gaps remain which need to be addressed. PMID:26017963

  5. Health Risk Assessment for Exposure to Benzene in Petroleum Refinery Environments

    PubMed Central

    Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

    2015-01-01

    The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

  6. Health risk assessment for exposure to benzene in petroleum refinery environments.

    PubMed

    Edokpolo, Benjamin; Yu, Qiming Jimmy; Connell, Des

    2015-01-01

    The health risk resulting from benzene exposure in petroleum refineries was calculated using data from the scientific literature from various countries throughout the world. The exposure data was collated into four scenarios from petroleum refinery environments and plotted as cumulative probability distributions (CPD) plots. Health risk was evaluated for each scenario using the Hazard Quotient (HQ) at 50% (CEXP50) and 95% (CEXP95) exposure levels. Benzene levels were estimated to pose a significant risk with HQ50 > 1 and HQ95 > 1 for workers exposed to benzene as base estimates for petroleum refinery workers (Scenario 1), petroleum refinery workers evaluated with personal samplers in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 2B) and evaluated using air inside petroleum refineries in Bulgarian refineries (Scenario 3B). HQ50 < 1 were calculated for petroleum refinery workers with personal samplers in Italian refineries (Scenario 2A), air inside petroleum refineries (Scenario 3A) and air outside petroleum refineries (Scenario 4) in India and Taiwan indicating little possible adverse health effects. Also, HQ95 was < 1 for Scenario 4 however potential risk was evaluated for Scenarios 2A and 3A with HQ95 > 1. The excess Cancer risk (CR) for lifetime exposure to benzene for all the scenarios was evaluated using the Slope Factor and Overall Risk Probability (ORP) methods. The result suggests a potential cancer risk for exposure to benzene in all the scenarios. However, there is a higher cancer risk at 95% (CEXP95) for petroleum refinery workers (2B) with a CR of 48,000 per 106 and exposure to benzene in air inside petroleum refineries (3B) with a CR of 28,000 per 106. PMID:25588154

  7. Health risks from increases in methylmercury exposure.

    PubMed Central

    Mottet, N K; Shaw, C M; Burbacher, T M

    1985-01-01

    Our present knowledge of the human health effects of methylmercury exposure is derived from study of major outbreaks of human poisonings in Japan and Iraq and experimental studies on primates. Methylmercury readily passes through such physiological barriers as the blood-brain barrier, blood-testes barrier, and the placenta. Its major pathological effects are on the nervous and reproductive systems and the developing embryo/fetus. The neurotoxicity of methylmercury is well established in both humans and non-human primates. Lesions in the cerebral and cerebellar gray matter consist of necrosis and lysis of neurons, phagocytosis and gliosis. The changes are most prominent in the deep sulci and may have a vascular component. A late effect is cerebral atrophy. At high dose levels the liver, kidneys, and other organs may also have degenerative changes. Although not yet described in humans, a major effect of exposure of female primates is an adverse effect on pregnancy. Maternal female M. fascicularis blood mercury levels above 1 ppm are associated with a decreased pregnancy rate and increased abortion rate. To date our experimental data lack sufficient numbers to detect infrequent pregnancy effects below 1 ppm. Preliminary studies also reveal that methylmercury may also decrease the number and function (swim speed) of sperm. Both human and primate studies demonstrate deleterious effects of methylmercury on the developing embryo/fetus. Autopsies on human and primate infants reveal retarded brain development and the occurrence of a cerebral palsy-like behavior in the newborns, whereas the mother may be free of signs and symptoms of methylmercury toxicity. The fetal blood level of mercury is higher than the maternal level.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS) Images FIGURE 1. FIGURE 2. FIGURE 3. FIGURE 5. PMID:3908085

  8. Prevalence of enteropathogenic bacteria in treated effluents and receiving water bodies and their potential health risks.

    PubMed

    Teklehaimanot, Giorgis Z; Genthe, B; Kamika, I; Momba, M N B

    2015-06-15

    The failure of wastewater treatment plants to produce effluents of a high microbiological quality is a matter of great concern in terms of water resource pollution. A more serious concern is that this water source is used by communities in developing countries for multiple purposes, which include drinking, recreation and agriculture. The current study investigated the prevalence and potential health risks of enteropathogenic bacteria (Salmonella typhimurium, Shigella dysenteriae and Vibrio cholerae) in the treated effluents of three selected South African Wastewater Treatment Works as well as their receiving water bodies. Culture-based and polymerase chain reaction techniques were used to detect and identify the pathogenic bacteria. The conventional methods revealed that of the 272 water samples collected, 236 samples (86.8%) tested presumptively positive for Salmonella spp., 220 samples (80.9%) for Shigella spp. and 253 samples (93.0%) for V. cholerae. Molecular test results indicated that out of the randomly selected presumptive positive samples (145), zero to 60% of samples were positive for S. typhimurium and S. dysenteriae and 20% to 60% for V. cholerae. For the health risk assessment, the daily combined risk of S. typhimurium, S. dysenteriae and V. cholerae infection was above the lowest acceptable risk limit of 10(-4) as estimated by the World Health Organization for drinking water. This study showed that the target treated wastewater effluents and their receiving water bodies could pose a potential health risk to the surrounding communities. PMID:25777950

  9. Heavy metals contamination and human health risk assessment around Obuasi gold mine in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Bempah, Crentsil Kofi; Ewusi, Anthony

    2016-05-01

    Gold mining has increased the prevalence and occurrence of heavy metals contamination at the Earth's surface and is causing major concern due to the potential risk involved. This study investigated the impact of gold mine on heavy metals (As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb, Hg, Ni, Fe, Mn, and Zn) pollution and evaluated the potential health risks to local residents via consumption of polluted groundwater, agricultural soils, and vegetable crops grown at three community farms surrounding the mine at Obuasi municipality of Ghana. The results showed levels of As, Cd, Cr, Hg, Fe, and Mn higher than the allowable drinking water standards. The vegetable samples analyzed showed high accumulation of As and Ni above the normal value. Bioaccumulation factors of heavy metals were significantly higher for vegetables grown in the Sanso soils. Estimated average daily intake and hazard quotient for As in drinking water as well as As, Pb, and Hg in vegetable samples exceeded permissible limit. Unacceptable non-cancer health risk levels were found in vegetable samples analyzed for As, Pb, and Hg. An unacceptable cancer risk was found via drinking of groundwater, in consumption of vegetables, and in soil. The hazard index for vegetables was higher than 1, indicating very high health risk to heavy metals contamination through consumption of vegetables grown around the sampling sites. The results recommend the need for regular monitoring of groundwater and food crops to protect consumers' health. PMID:27037696

  10. Covariations of Adolescent Weight-Control, Health-Risk and Health-Promoting Behaviors.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rafiroiu, Anca Codruta; Sargent, Roger G.; Parra-Medina, Deborah; Drane, Wanzer J.; Valois, Robert F.

    2003-01-01

    Assessed the prevalence of dieting, investigating clusters of risk behaviors among adolescents. Data from the 1999 South Carolina Youth Risk Behavior Survey indicated that weight control behaviors related to several other important health behaviors. Differences existed between adolescents who used extreme weight loss measures and moderate dieters…

  11. Environmental health risk assessment and management for global climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, P.

    2014-12-01

    This environmental health risk assessment and management approach for atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution is based almost entirely on IPCC AR5 (2014) content, but the IPCC does not make recommendations. Large climate model uncertainties may be large environmental health risks. In accordance with environmental health risk management, we use the standard (IPCC-endorsed) formula of risk as the product of magnitude times probability, with an extremely high standard of precaution. Atmospheric GHG pollution, causing global warming, climate change and ocean acidification, is increasing as fast as ever. Time is of the essence to inform and make recommendations to governments and the public. While the 2ºC target is the only formally agreed-upon policy limit, for the most vulnerable nations, a 1.5ºC limit is being considered by the UNFCCC Secretariat. The Climate Action Network International (2014), representing civil society, recommends that the 1.5ºC limit be kept open and that emissions decline from 2015. James Hansen et al (2013) have argued that 1ºC is the danger limit. Taking into account committed global warming, its millennial duration, multiple large sources of amplifying climate feedbacks and multiple adverse impacts of global warming and climate change on crops, and population health impacts, all the IPCC AR5 scenarios carry extreme environmental health risks to large human populations and to the future of humanity as a whole. Our risk consideration finds that 2ºC carries high risks of many catastrophic impacts, that 1.5ºC carries high risks of many disastrous impacts, and that 1ºC is the danger limit. IPCC AR4 (2007) showed that emissions must be reversed by 2015 for a 2ºC warming limit. For the IPCC AR5 only the best-case scenario RCP2.6, is projected to stay under 2ºC by 2100 but the upper range is just above 2ºC. It calls for emissions to decline by 2020. We recommend that for catastrophic environmental health risk aversion, emissions decline

  12. Mental health risk assessment - a guide for GPs.

    PubMed

    Balaratnasingam, Sivasankaran

    2011-06-01

    BACKGROUND Risk assessment of patients in general practice is a challenging area of clinical practice. Competing interests of managing patient wishes, consideration of duty to warn others and invoking the Mental Health Act while practising in a medicolegally accountable manner can be difficult. OBJECTIVE This article summarises the risk assessment of patients with possible mental disorders and provides suggestions regarding measures that may be undertaken to manage risk in psychiatric emergencies. DISCUSSION The evidence of effectiveness for risk assessment interventions in acute settings is limited. While it is not possible for general practitioners to predict the future, and particularly to predict fatal outcomes, they can be expected to meet a standard of care that identifies those at risk and provide an acceptable clinical response. PMID:21655480

  13. Health Status and Health Risks of the "Hidden Majority" of Adults with Intellectual Disability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Emerson, Eric

    2011-01-01

    Little is known about the health status of and health risks faced by adults with intellectual disability who do not use intellectual disability services. Self-report data collected from 1,022 people with mild intellectual disability in England indicated that people who do not use intellectual disability services are more likely to smoke tobacco…

  14. Environmental Health and Aging: Activity, Exposure and Biological Models to Improve Risk Assessment and Health Promotion

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies are concerned that the environmental health of America’s growing population of older adults has not been taken into consideration in current approaches to risk assessment. The reduced capacity to respo...

  15. Health risk assessment of organic micropollutants in greywater for potable reuse.

    PubMed

    Etchepare, Ramiro; van der Hoek, Jan Peter

    2015-04-01

    In light of the increasing interest in development of sustainable potable reuse systems, additional research is needed to elucidate the risks of producing drinking water from new raw water sources. This article investigates the presence and potential health risks of organic micropollutants in greywater, a potential new source for potable water production introduced in this work. An extensive literature survey reveals that almost 280 organic micropollutants have been detected in greywater. A three-tiered approach is applied for the preliminary health risk assessment of these chemicals. Benchmark values are derived from established drinking water standards for compounds grouped in Tier 1, from literature toxicological data for compounds in Tier 2, and from a Threshold of Toxicological Concern approach for compounds in Tier 3. A risk quotient is estimated by comparing the maximum concentration levels reported in greywater to the benchmark values. The results show that for the majority of compounds, risk quotient values were below 0.2, which suggests they would not pose appreciable concern to human health over a lifetime exposure to potable water. Fourteen compounds were identified with risk quotients above 0.2 which may warrant further investigation if greywater is used as a source for potable reuse. The present findings are helpful in prioritizing upcoming greywater quality monitoring and defining the goals of multiple barriers treatment in future water reclamation plants for potable water production. PMID:25472689

  16. [Urbanization--a factor that increases the risk for health].

    PubMed

    Fridman, K B; Kriukova, T V

    2015-01-01

    The negative impact of urbanization on public health is obvious. However; due to the comprehensiveness and polymorphicity of its manifestations there are not established criteria for them. Health risk methodology allows, in principle, to obtain quantitative indices of the separate results of the impact on the health status of the citizens of metropolis that can be extremely effective in this area. The total cross-media riskfrom traffic pollution, drinking water quality, open ponds, noise, etc. permits to use of hygiene criteria in urban planning, insurance, taxation, etc. PMID:26031033

  17. [The operational role of the occupational health physician in the assessment and management of health risks related to night risks].

    PubMed

    Mucci, Nicola; Giorgi, Gabriele; Gonnelli, Irene Margherita; Garbarino, Sergio; Cupelli, Vincenzo; Arcangelil, Giulio

    2016-01-01

    The operational role of the occupational health physician in the assessment and management of health risks related to night work. Night work, in the last 30-40 years, has been extended to almost all areas of employment. The potential effects on workers' health--related to the disruption of circadian rhythms--are now well defined and studied in the Literature. All issues about the protection of safety and health for night workers are governed by the Italian Legislative Decree no. 66/2003 and subsequent amendments. The management of night work hasn't been included into the main Law on Occupational Safety and Health (Italian Legislative Decree no. 81/2008 and subsequent amendments) and a coordination between the two disciplines is desirable. The occupational health physician, as a global consultant for the protection of all health issues into a company, has to evaluate the potential effects of night work on health, both individually and as a group of workers. In this way, the physician may use either traditional tools (history, physical examination, blood tests) or innovative tools (questionnaires, health promotion programs, interventions on shift schedules). In the management of night work is useful to employ schedules that respect both psychophysical integrity and social welfare of workers and the needs of the production. The occupational health physician plays a significant role in information and training of workers, both individually and as a group of workers, and in the organization of health promotion programs (whit a voluntary participation by the workers). PMID:27311142

  18. Lessons learned: Needs for improving human health risk assessment at USDOE Sites

    SciTech Connect

    Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.; Daniels, J.I.; Layton, D.W.; Anspaugh, L.R.

    1993-09-01

    Realistic health risk assessments were performed in a pilot study of three U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) sites. These assessments, covering a broad spectrum of data and methods, were used to identify needs for improving future health risk assessments at USDOE sites. Topics receiving specific recommendations for additional research include: choice of distributions for Monte Carlo simulation; estimation of risk reduction; analysis of the U.S. Department of Agriculture Database on food and nutrient intakes; investigations on effects of food processing on contaminant levels; background food and environmental concentrations of contaminants; method for handling exposures to groundwater plumes, methods for analyzing less than lifetime exposure to carcinogens; and improvement of bioaccumulation factors.

  19. Latent-failure risk estimates for computer control

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, William R.; Folsom, Rolfe A.; Green, Owen R.

    1991-01-01

    It is shown that critical computer controls employing unmonitored safety circuits are unsafe. Analysis supporting this result leads to two additional, important conclusions: (1) annual maintenance checks of safety circuit function do not, as widely believed, eliminate latent failure risk; (2) safety risk remains even if multiple, series-connected protection circuits are employed. Finally, it is shown analytically that latent failure risk is eliminated when continuous monitoring is employed.

  20. State Estimates of Adolescent Marijuana Use and Perceptions of Risk of Harm from Marijuana Use: 2013 and 2014

    MedlinePlus

    ... 2014 estimates to 2012–2013 estimates). However, youth perceptions of great risk of harm from monthly marijuana ... change. State Estimates of Adolescent Marijuana Use and Perceptions of Risk of Harm From Marijuana Use: 2013 ...

  1. Exposure Estimation for Risk Assessment of the Phthalate Incident in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Chu-Chih; Wang, Shu-Li; Wu, Ming-Tsang; Wang, Yin-Han; Huang, Po-Chin; Chen, Bai-Hsiun; Sun, Chien-Wen; Ho, Chi-Kung; Shih, Yang-Chih; Shiu, Ming-Neng; Pan, Wen-Harn; Chen, Mei-Lien; Lee, Ching-Chang; Hsiung, Chao A.

    2016-01-01

    Background In May 2011, di(2-ethylhexyl) phthalates (DEHP) and, to a lesser extent, di-iso-nonyl phthalate (DiNP) were found to have been illegally used for many years in Taiwan as clouding agents in foods including sports drinks, juice beverages, tea drinks, fruit jam/nectar/jelly, and health or nutrient supplements. Objective To estimate the DEHP exposure for the study participants for the follow-up epidemiological study and health risk assessment. Methods A total of 347 individuals possibly highly exposed to phthalate-tainted foods participated in the study. Exposure assessment was performed based on the participants' responses to a structured questionnaire, self-report of exposure history, urinary metabolite concentrations, and DEHP concentration information in 2449 food records. A Bayesian statistical approach using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was employed to deal with the uncertainties in the DEHP concentrations of the contaminated foods and the participants' likelihood of being exposed. Results An estimated 37% and 15% of children younger than 12 years old were exposed to DEHP at medium (20–50 μg / kg_bw / day) and high AvDIs (50–100 μg / kg_bw / day), respectively, prior to the episode (9% and 3% in adults, respectively). Moreover, 11% of children and 1% of adults were highly exposed (> 100 μg / kg_bw / day), with a maximum of 414.1 μg / kg_bw / day and 126.4 μg / kg_bw / day, respectively. Conclusions The phthalate exposure-associated adverse health effects for these participants warrant further investigation. The estimation procedure may be applied to other exposure assessment with various sources of uncertainties. PMID:26960145

  2. Improved risk estimated from carbon tetrachloride. Annual progress report, October 1, 1996--September 30, 1997

    SciTech Connect

    Benson, J.M.

    1997-10-27

    'Carbon tetrachloride (CCl{sub 4}) has been used extensively within the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapons facilities. Rocky Flats was formerly the largest volume user of CCl{sub 4} in the US, with 5,000 gallons used there in 1977 alone. At the Hanford site, several hundred thousand gallons of CCl{sub 4} were discharged between 1955 and 1973 into underground cribs for storage. Levels of CCl{sub 4} in groundwater at highly contaminated sites at the Hanford. facility have exceeded the drinking water standard of 5 ppb by several orders of magnitude. High levels of CCl{sub 4} at these facilities represent a potential health hazard for workers conducting cleanup operations and for surrounding communities. The level of CCl{sub 4} cleanup required at these sites and associated costs are driven by current human health risk estimates which assume that CCl{sub 4} is a genotoxic carcinogen. The overall purpose of these studies is to improve the scientific basis for assessing the health risk associated with human exposure to CCl{sub 4}. Specifically, the authors will determine the toxicokinetics of inhaled and ingested CCl{sub 4} in F344/Crl rats, B6C3F1 mice, and Syrian hamsters. They will also evaluate species differences in the metabolism of CCl{sub 4} by rats, mice, hamsters, and man. Dose-response relationships will be determined in all these studies. This information will be used to improve the physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for CCl4 originally developed by Paustenbach et al. (1988) and more recently revised by Thrall and Kenny (1996). They will also provide scientific evidence that CCl{sub 4} , like chloroform, is a hepatocarcinogen only when exposure results in cell damage, cell killing, and regenerative cell proliferation. In combination, the studies outlined in this proposal will provide the exact types of information needed to enable refined cancer risk estimates for CCl{sub 4} under the new guidelines for risk assessment proposed by the

  3. Indoor radon and lung cancer. Estimating the risks.

    PubMed Central

    Samet, J. M.

    1992-01-01

    Radon is ubiquitous in indoor environments. Epidemiologic studies of underground miners with exposure to radon and experimental evidence have established that radon causes lung cancer. The finding that this naturally occurring carcinogen is present in the air of homes and other buildings has raised concern about the lung cancer risk to the general population from radon. I review current approaches for assessing the risk of indoor radon, emphasizing the extrapolation of the risks for miners to the general population. Although uncertainties are inherent in this risk assessment, the present evidence warrants identifying homes that have unacceptably high concentrations. PMID:1734594

  4. Occupational HIV risk for health care workers: risk factor and the risk of infection in the course of professional activities

    PubMed Central

    Wyżgowski, Przemysław; Rosiek, Anna; Grzela, Tomasz; Leksowski, Krzysztof

    2016-01-01

    Virtually created panic among health care workers about pandemic acquired immune deficiency syndrome prompted us to review the scientific literature to investigate the risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission in the daily works of health care workers, especially surgeons and anesthesiologists. In this review, we report worldwide valuations of the number of HIV infections that may occur from unsafe daily work in health care. We also present how to minimize the risk of infection by taking precautions and how to utilize postexposure prophylaxis in accordance with the latest reports of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. HIV-infected patients will be aging, and most of them will become the candidates for procedures such as major vascular reconstruction and artery bypass grafting, where the risks of blood contact and staff injury are high. For these reasons, all health care workers need to know how to prevent, and fight following the accidental exposure to HIV. PMID:27366077

  5. Associations of muscular fitness with psychological positive health, health complaints, and health risk behaviors in Spanish children and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Padilla-Moledo, Carmen; Ruiz, Jonatan R; Ortega, Francisco B; Mora, Jesús; Castro-Piñero, José

    2012-01-01

    We examined the association of muscular fitness with psychological positive health, health complaints, and health risk behaviors in 690 (n = 322 girls) Spanish children and adolescents (6-17.9 years old). Lower body muscular strength was assessed with the standing long jump test, and upper-body muscular strength was assessed with the throw basketball test. A muscular fitness index was computed by means of standardized measures of both tests. Psychosocial positive health, health complaints, and health risk behaviors were self-reported using the items of the Health Behavior in School-aged Children questionnaire. Psychological positive health indicators included the following: perceived health status, life satisfaction, quality of family relationships, quality of peer relationships, and academic performance. We computed a health complaints index from 8 registered symptoms: headache, stomach ache, backache, feeling low, irritability or bad temper, feeling nervous, difficulties getting to sleep, and feeling dizzy. The health risk behavior indicators studied included tobacco use, alcohol use, and getting drunk. Children and adolescents with low muscular fitness (below the mean) had a higher odds ratio (OR) of reporting fair (vs. excellent) perceived health status, low life satisfaction (vs. very happy), low quality of family relationships (vs. very good), and low academic performance (vs. very good). Likewise, children and adolescents having low muscular fitness had a significantly higher OR of reporting smoking tobacco sometimes (vs. never), drinking alcohol sometimes (vs. never), and getting drunk sometimes (vs. never). The results of this study suggest a link between muscular fitness and psychological positive health and health risk behavior indicators in children and adolescents. PMID:22158258

  6. Youth "At Risk"? Young People, Sexual Health and Consent

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Anastasia

    2007-01-01

    In Australia, there is a growing expectation that sexuality education should reduce the risks associated with youth sex by providing young people with information on protecting their sexual health. However, this information may be insufficient to ensure that young people make choices that support their sexual safety and autonomy. This paper…

  7. Older Women: A Population at Risk for Mental Health Problems.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wisniewski, Wendy; Cohen, Donna

    The expanding population of older women relative to older men or the "feminization of aging" is a significant demographic trend with important implications for the future. Older women are at risk for extended years of widowhood, living alone, institutionalization, poverty, and mental health problems. Although the dementias of late life appear to…

  8. A 21st Century Roadmap for Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    For decades human health risk assessment has depended primarily on animal testing to predict adverse effects in humans, but that paradigm has come under question because of calls for more accurate information, less use of animals, and more efficient use of resources. Moreover, t...

  9. Do You Know the Health Risks of Being Overweight?

    MedlinePlus

    ... and conducts clinical studies on prevention and treatment. Kidney Disease What is kidney disease? Your kidneys are two bean-shaped organs that ... problems that can harm your health. How is kidney disease linked to overweight? Obesity increases the risk of ...

  10. Contextual Stress and Health Risk Behaviors among African American Adolescents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Copeland-Linder, Nikeea; Lambert, Sharon F.; Chen, Yi-Fu; Ialongo, Nicholas S.

    2011-01-01

    This study examined the longitudinal association between contextual stress and health risk behaviors and the role of protective factors in a community epidemiologically-defined sample of urban African American adolescents (N = 500; 46.4% female). Structural equation modeling was used to create a latent variable measuring contextual stress…

  11. Environmental Epigenetics: Potential Application in Human Health Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    Although previous studies have shown a significant involvement of epigenetic dysregulation in human diseases, the applicability of epigenetic data in the current human health risk assessment paradigm is unclear. The goals of this study are to compare the relative sensitivities of...

  12. Health and Risk Behaviors of Massachusetts Youth, 2007: The Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2008

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents the results of two coordinated surveys of Massachusetts adolescents, the 2007 Massachusetts Youth Risk Behavior Survey (ESE) and the Massachusetts Youth Health Survey (DPH). These two surveys were supported by funding from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and administered in a random selection of 124 public…

  13. Daily salt intake estimated by overnight urine collections indicates a high cardiovascular disease risk in Thailand.

    PubMed

    Yokokawa, Hirohide; Yuasa, Motoyuki; Nedsuwan, Supalert; Moolphate, Saiyud; Fukuda, Hiroshi; Kitajima, Tsutomu; Minematsu, Kazuo; Tanimura, Susumu; Marui, Eiji

    2016-01-01

    This cross-sectional study (February 2012 to March 2013) was conducted to estimate daily salt intake and basic characteristics among 793 community-dwelling participants at high risk of cardiovascular disease (Framingham risk score >15%), who had visited diabetes or hypertension clinics at health centres in the Muang district, Chiang Rai, Thailand. We performed descriptive analysis of baseline data and used an automated analyser to estimate the average of 24-hour salt intake estimated from 3 days overnight urine collection. Participants were divided into two groups based on median estimated daily salt intake. Mean age and proportion of males were 65.2 years and 37.6% in the higher salt intake group (>=10.0 g/day, n=362), and 67.5 years and 42.7% in the lower salt intake group (<10.0 g/day, n=431), respectively (p=0.01, p<0.01). The higher salt intake group comprised more patients with a family history of hypertension, antihypertensive drug use, less ideal body mass index (18.5-24.9), higher exercise frequency (>=2 times weekly) and lower awareness of high salt intake. Among higher salt intake participants, those with lower awareness of high salt intake were younger and more often had a family history of hypertension, relative to those with more awareness. Our data indicated that families often share lifestyles involving high salt intake, and discrepancies between actual salt intake and awareness of high salt intake may represent a need for salt reduction intervention aiming at family level. Awareness of actual salt intake should be improved for each family. PMID:26965760

  14. Effects of suicide bereavement on mental health and suicide risk.

    PubMed

    Pitman, Alexandra; Osborn, David; King, Michael; Erlangsen, Annette

    2014-06-01

    Between 48 million and 500 million people are thought to experience suicide bereavement every year. Over the past decade, increased policy attention has been directed towards suicide bereavement, but with little evidence to describe the effect of exposure or to provide appropriate responses. We used a systematic approach to carry out a narrative review of studies of the effect of suicide bereavement on mortality, mental health, and social functioning, and compared them with effects from other bereavements. We found 57 studies that satisfied strict inclusion criteria. Results from these studies suggested that exposure to suicide of a close contact is associated with several negative health and social outcomes, depending on an individual's relationship to the deceased. These effects included an increased risk of suicide in partners bereaved by suicide, increased risk of required admission to psychiatric care for parents bereaved by the suicide of an offspring, increased risk of suicide in mothers bereaved by an adult child's suicide, and increased risk of depression in offspring bereaved by the suicide of a parent. Some evidence was shown for increased rejection and shame in people bereaved by suicide across a range of kinship groups when data were compared with reports of relatives bereaved by other violent deaths. Policy recommendations for support services after suicide bereavement heavily rely on the voluntary sector with little input from psychiatric services to address described risks. Policymakers should consider how to strengthen health and social care resources for people who have been bereaved by suicide to prevent avoidable mortality and distress. PMID:26360405

  15. The Aggregate Risk Index: An intuitive tool providing the health risks of air pollution to health care community and public

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sicard, Pierre; Talbot, Charles; Lesne, Olivia; Mangin, Antoine; Alexandre, Nicolas; Collomp, Rémy

    2012-01-01

    In the framework of the European project PASODOBLE (FP7), we set up downstream information services by combining environmental and health data with a view to support the health care community and to improve vulnerable people welfare. Indeed there is a profound relationship between human health, well-being and air pollution levels. The main objectives are to establish correlations between air quality, exposure of populations and their reactivity, to develop and validate air quality indexes and to construct a prediction model of this sanitary index. This index will be implemented on 3 European sites: Greece (Athens and Thessaloniki), the Netherlands and "Provence Alpes Côte d'Azur" (South East of France). The selected region and cities are among the