Sample records for estimating production potentials

  1. Estimation of phytoplankton production from space: current status and future potential of satellite remote sensing.

    PubMed

    Joint; Groom

    2000-07-30

    A new generation of ocean colour satellites is now operational, with frequent observation of the global ocean. This paper reviews the potential to estimate marine primary production from satellite images. The procedures involved in retrieving estimates of phytoplankton biomass, as pigment concentrations, are discussed. Algorithms are applied to SeaWiFS ocean colour data to indicate seasonal variations in phytoplankton biomass in the Celtic Sea, on the continental shelf to the south west of the UK. Algorithms to estimate primary production rates from chlorophyll concentration are compared and the advantages and disadvantage discussed. The simplest algorithms utilise correlations between chlorophyll concentration and production rate and one equation is used to estimate daily primary production rates for the western English Channel and Celtic Sea; these estimates compare favourably with published values. Primary production for the central Celtic Sea in the period April to September inclusive is estimated from SeaWiFS data to be 102 gC m(-2) in 1998 and 93 gC m(-2) in 1999; published estimates, based on in situ incubations, are ca. 80 gC m(-2). The satellite data demonstrate large variations in primary production between 1998 and 1999, with a significant increase in late summer in 1998 which did not occur in 1999. Errors are quantified for the estimation of primary production from simple algorithms based on satellite-derived chlorophyll concentration. These data show the potential to obtain better estimates of marine primary production than are possible with ship-based methods, with the ability to detect short-lived phytoplankton blooms. In addition, the potential to estimate new production from satellite data is discussed.

  2. Estimation of potential biomass resource and biogas production from aquatic plants in Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fitzsimons, R. E.; Laurino, C. N.; Vallejos, R. H.

    1982-08-01

    The use of aquatic plants in artificial lakes as a biomass source for biogas and fertilizer production through anaerobic fermentation is evaluated, and the magnitude of this resource and the potential production of biogas and fertilizer are estimated. The specific case considered is the artificial lake that will be created by the construction of Parana Medio Hydroelectric Project on the middle Parana River in Argentina. The growth of the main aquatic plant, water hyacinth, on the middle Parana River has been measured, and its conversion to methane by anaerobic fermentation is determined. It is estimated that gross methane production may be between 1.0-4.1 x 10 to the 9th cu cm/year. The fermentation residue can be used as a soil conditioner, and it is estimated production of the residue may represent between 54,900-221,400 tons of nitrogen/year, a value which is 2-8 times the present nitrogen fertilizer demand in Argentina.

  3. Potential new production in two upwelling regions of the western Arabian Sea: Estimation and comparison

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liao, Xiaomei; Zhan, Haigang; Du, Yan

    2016-07-01

    Using satellite-derived and in situ data, the wind-driven potential new production (nitrate supply) for the 300 km wide coastal band in two upwelling regions of the western Arabian Sea (AS) during the southwest monsoon is estimated. The upward nitrate flux to the euphotic zone is generally based on the physical processes of coastal transport (Ekman transport and geostrophic transport) and offshore Ekman pumping. The coastal geostrophic current in the western AS influences the upwelling intensity and latitudinal distributions of nitrate supply. The Oman and Somalia upwelling regions have similar level of potential new production (nitrate supply) during the summer monsoon, while the satellite estimates of primary production off Oman are 2 times greater than those off Somalia. The much higher potential f-ratio in the Somalia upwelling region indicates that the primary production could be limited by availability of other macronutrients (e.g., silicate). The correlation analysis of the primary production and the aerosol optical thickness shows that the Oman upwelling region displays a stronger coupling between the atmospheric deposition and the phytoplankton abundance. The high summertime dust levels in the atmosphere are suggested to contribute to the high primary production in the Oman upwelling region.

  4. New Estimates of Land Use Intensity of Potential Bioethanol Production in the U.S.A.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kheshgi, H. S.; Song, Y.; Torkamani, S.; Jain, A. K.

    2016-12-01

    We estimate potential bioethanol land use intensity (the inverse of potential bioethanol yield per hectare) across the United States by modeling crop yields and conversion to bioethanol (via a fermentation pathway), based on crop field studies and conversion technology analyses. We apply the process-based land surface model, the Integrated Science Assessment model (ISAM), to estimate the potential yield of four crops - corn, Miscanthus, and two variants of switchgrass (Cave-in-Rock and Alamo) - across the U.S.A. landscape for the 14-year period from 1999 through 2012, for the case with fertilizer application but without irrigation. We estimate bioethanol yield based on recent experience for corn bioethanol production from corn kernel, and current cellulosic bioethanol process design specifications under the assumption of the maximum practical harvest fraction for the energy grasses (Miscanthus and switchgrasses) and a moderate (30%) harvest fraction of corn stover. We find that each of four crops included has regions where that crop is estimated to have the lowest land use intensity (highest potential bioethanol yield per hectare). We find that minimizing potential land use intensity by including both corn and the energy grasses only improves incrementally to that of corn (using both harvested kernel and stover for bioethanol). Bioethanol land use intensity is one fundamental factor influencing the desirability of biofuels, but is not the only one; others factors include economics, competition with food production and land use, water and climate, nitrogen runoff, life-cycle emissions, and the pace of crop and technology improvement into the future.

  5. Potential Improvements to Remote Primary Productivity Estimation in the Southern California Current System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacox, M.; Edwards, C. A.; Kahru, M.; Rudnick, D. L.; Kudela, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    A 26-year record of depth integrated primary productivity (PP) in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) is analyzed with the goal of improving satellite net primary productivity (PP) estimates. The ratio of integrated primary productivity to surface chlorophyll correlates strongly to surface chlorophyll concentration (chl0). However, chl0 does not correlate to chlorophyll-specific productivity, and appears to be a proxy for vertical phytoplankton distribution rather than phytoplankton physiology. Modest improvements in PP model performance are achieved by tuning existing algorithms for the SCCS, particularly by empirical parameterization of photosynthetic efficiency in the Vertically Generalized Production Model. Much larger improvements are enabled by improving accuracy of subsurface chlorophyll and light profiles. In a simple vertically resolved production model, substitution of in situ surface data for remote sensing estimates offers only marginal improvements in model r2 and total log10 root mean squared difference, while inclusion of in situ chlorophyll and light profiles improves these metrics significantly. Autonomous underwater gliders, capable of measuring subsurface fluorescence on long-term, long-range deployments, significantly improve PP model fidelity in the SCCS. We suggest their use (and that of other autonomous profilers such as Argo floats) in conjunction with satellites as a way forward for improved PP estimation in coastal upwelling systems.

  6. The Global Burden of Potential Productivity Loss from Uncorrected Presbyopia.

    PubMed

    Frick, Kevin D; Joy, Susan M; Wilson, David A; Naidoo, Kovin S; Holden, Brien A

    2015-08-01

    The onset of presbyopia in middle adulthood results in potential losses in productivity among otherwise healthy adults if uncorrected or undercorrected. The economic burden could be significant in lower-income countries, where up to 94% of cases may be uncorrected or undercorrected. This study estimates the global burden of potential productivity lost because of uncorrected functional presbyopia. Population data from the US Census Bureau were combined with the estimated presbyopia prevalence, age of onset, employment rate, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in current US dollars, and near vision impairment disability weights from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study to estimate the global loss of productivity from uncorrected and undercorrected presbyopia in each country in 2011. To allow comparison with earlier work, we also calculated the loss with the conservative assumption that the contribution to productivity extends only up to 50 years of age. The economic modeling did not require the use of subjects. We estimated the number of cases of uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia in each country among the working-age population. The number of working-age cases was multiplied by the labor force participation rate, the employment rate, a disability weight, and the GDP per capita to estimate the potential loss of GDP due to presbyopia. The outcome being measured is the lost productivity in 2011 US dollars resulting from uncorrected or undercorrected presbyopia. There were an estimated 1.272 billion cases of presbyopia worldwide in 2011. A total of 244 million cases, uncorrected or undercorrected among people aged <50 years, were associated with a potential productivity loss of US $11.023 billion (0.016% of global GDP). If all those people aged <65 years are assumed to be productive, the potential productivity loss would be US $25.367 billion or 0.037% of global GDP. Correcting presbyopia to the level achieved in Europe would reduce the burden to US $1

  7. Estimating the CO2 sequestration potential of depleted and fractured shale formations using CH4 production rates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clarens, A. F.; Tao, Z.

    2013-12-01

    Oil and gas production from hydraulically fractured shale formations is an abundant new source of domestically available energy for the United States. It will also result in significant CO2 emissions with important climate implications. Several studies have suggested that fractured shale formations could be used to permanently store CO2 once they are depleted of hydrocarbons. Many of the largest shale formations being developed in the United States have temperature and pressure profiles that are similar to those of saline aquifers being widely studied for geologic carbon sequestration. Here a modeling framework was developed that can be used to estimate the sequestration capacity for a shale formation based on historical CH4 production. The model is applied to those portions of the Marcellus formation found in Pennsylvania because reliable data on well production is readily available for this state. Production data from over 300 wells was compiled and used to estimate historical production and to extrapolate projected production. In shales, much of the CO2 would be sorbed to the pore and fracture surface and so this model considers sorption kinetics as well as total sorption capacity. The results suggest that shale formations could represent a significant repository for geologic carbon sequestration. The Marcellus shale in Pennsylvania alone could store between 10.4 and 18.4 Gigatonnes of CO2 between now and 2030. This would be over 50% of total annual US CO2 emissions from stationary sources. The mass transfer and sorption kinetics results indicate that CO2 injection proceeds several times faster than CH4 production. Model estimates were most sensitive to the permeability of the formation and assumptions about the ultimate ratio of adsorbed CH4 to CO2. CH4 production is a useful basis for calculating sequestration capacity because gas mass transfer out of the formation will be impacted by the same factors (e.g., temperature, pressure, and moisture content

  8. Concentrations and Potential Health Risks of Metals in Lip Products

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Sa; Rojas-Cheatham, Ann

    2013-01-01

    Background: Metal content in lip products has been an issue of concern. Objectives: We measured lead and eight other metals in a convenience sample of 32 lip products used by young Asian women in Oakland, California, and assessed potential health risks related to estimated intakes of these metals. Methods: We analyzed lip products by inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry and used previous estimates of lip product usage rates to determine daily oral intakes. We derived acceptable daily intakes (ADIs) based on information used to determine public health goals for exposure, and compared ADIs with estimated intakes to assess potential risks. Results: Most of the tested lip products contained high concentrations of titanium and aluminum. All examined products had detectable manganese. Lead was detected in 24 products (75%), with an average concentration of 0.36 ± 0.39 ppm, including one sample with 1.32 ppm. When used at the estimated average daily rate, estimated intakes were > 20% of ADIs derived for aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese. In addition, average daily use of 10 products tested would result in chromium intake exceeding our estimated ADI for chromium. For high rates of product use (above the 95th percentile), the percentages of samples with estimated metal intakes exceeding ADIs were 3% for aluminum, 68% for chromium, and 22% for manganese. Estimated intakes of lead were < 20% of ADIs for average and high use. Conclusions: Cosmetics safety should be assessed not only by the presence of hazardous contents, but also by comparing estimated exposures with health-based standards. In addition to lead, metals such as aluminum, cadmium, chromium, and manganese require further investigation. PMID:23674482

  9. Estimated costs of production and potential prices for the WHO Essential Medicines List

    PubMed Central

    Hill, Andrew M; Barber, Melissa J

    2018-01-01

    Introduction There are persistent gaps in access to affordable medicines. The WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (EML) includes medicines considered necessary for functional health systems. Methods A generic price estimation formula was developed by reviewing published analyses of cost of production for medicines and assuming manufacture in India, which included costs of formulation, packaging, taxation and a 10% profit margin. Data on per-kilogram prices of active pharmaceutical ingredient exported from India were retrieved from an online database. Estimated prices were compared with the lowest globally available prices for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis (TB) and malaria medicines, and current prices in the UK, South Africa and India. Results The estimation formula had good predictive accuracy for HIV/AIDS, TB and malaria medicines. Estimated generic prices ranged from US$0.01 to US$1.45 per unit, with most in the lower end of this range. Lowest available prices were greater than estimated generic prices for 214/277 (77%) comparable items in the UK, 142/212 (67%) in South Africa and 118/298 (40%) in India. Lowest available prices were more than three times above estimated generic price for 47% of cases compared in the UK and 22% in South Africa. Conclusion A wide range of medicines in the EML can be profitably manufactured at very low cost. Most EML medicines are sold in the UK and South Africa at prices significantly higher than those estimated from production costs. Generic price estimation and international price comparisons could empower government price negotiations and support cost-effectiveness calculations. PMID:29564159

  10. Estimating Prices of Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aster, R. W.; Chamberlain, R. G.; Zendejas, S. C.; Lee, T. S.; Malhotra, S.

    1986-01-01

    Company-wide or process-wide production simulated. Price Estimation Guidelines (IPEG) program provides simple, accurate estimates of prices of manufactured products. Simplification of SAMIS allows analyst with limited time and computing resources to perform greater number of sensitivity studies. Although developed for photovoltaic industry, readily adaptable to standard assembly-line type of manufacturing industry. IPEG program estimates annual production price per unit. IPEG/PC program written in TURBO PASCAL.

  11. The potential for improving remote primary productivity estimates through subsurface chlorophyll and irradiance measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacox, Michael G.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Kahru, Mati; Rudnick, Daniel L.; Kudela, Raphael M.

    2015-02-01

    A 26-year record of depth integrated primary productivity (PP) in the Southern California Current System (SCCS) is analyzed with the goal of improving satellite net primary productivity (PP) estimates. Modest improvements in PP model performance are achieved by tuning existing algorithms for the SCCS, particularly by parameterizing carbon fixation rate in the vertically generalized production model as a function of surface chlorophyll concentration and distance from shore. Much larger improvements are enabled by improving the accuracy of subsurface chlorophyll and light profiles. In a simple vertically resolved production model for the SCCS (VRPM-SC), substitution of in situ surface data for remote sensing estimates offers only marginal improvements in model r2 (from 0.54 to 0.56) and total log10 root mean squared difference (from 0.22 to 0.21), while inclusion of in situ chlorophyll and light profiles improves these metrics to 0.77 and 0.15, respectively. Autonomous underwater gliders, capable of measuring subsurface properties on long-term, long-range deployments, significantly improve PP model fidelity in the SCCS. We suggest their use (and that of other autonomous profilers such as Argo floats) in conjunction with satellites as a way forward for large-scale improvements in PP estimation.

  12. Developing estimates of potential demand for renewable wood energy products in Alaska

    Treesearch

    Allen M. Brackley; Valerie A. Barber; Cassie Pinkel

    2010-01-01

    Goal three of the current U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service strategy for improving the use of woody biomass is to help develop and expand markets for woody biomass products. This report is concerned with the existing volumes of renewable wood energy products (RWEP) that are currently used in Alaska and the potential demand for RWEP for residential and...

  13. Estimation of potential safety benefits for pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems.

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2017-04-01

    This report presents and exercises a methodology to estimate the effectiveness and potential safety benefits of production pedestrian crash avoidance/mitigation systems. The analysis focuses on light vehicles moving forward and striking a pedestrian ...

  14. Potential lost productivity resulting from the global burden of uncorrected refractive error.

    PubMed

    Smith, T S T; Frick, K D; Holden, B A; Fricke, T R; Naidoo, K S

    2009-06-01

    To estimate the potential global economic productivity loss associated with the existing burden of visual impairment from uncorrected refractive error (URE). Conservative assumptions and national population, epidemiological and economic data were used to estimate the purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (PPP-adjusted GDP) loss for all individuals with impaired vision and blindness, and for individuals with normal sight who provide them with informal care. An estimated 158.1 million cases of visual impairment resulted from uncorrected or undercorrected refractive error in 2007; of these, 8.7 million were blind. We estimated the global economic productivity loss in international dollars (I$) associated with this burden at I$ 427.7 billion before, and I$ 268.8 billion after, adjustment for country-specific labour force participation and employment rates. With the same adjustment, but assuming no economic productivity for individuals aged > 50 years, we estimated the potential productivity loss at I$ 121.4 billion. Even under the most conservative assumptions, the total estimated productivity loss, in $I, associated with visual impairment from URE is approximately a thousand times greater than the global number of cases. The cost of scaling up existing refractive services to meet this burden is unknown, but if each affected individual were to be provided with appropriate eyeglasses for less than I$ 1000, a net economic gain may be attainable.

  15. Potential lost productivity resulting from the global burden of uncorrected refractive error

    PubMed Central

    Frick, KD; Holden, BA; Fricke, TR; Naidoo, KS

    2009-01-01

    Abstract Objective To estimate the potential global economic productivity loss associated with the existing burden of visual impairment from uncorrected refractive error (URE). Methods Conservative assumptions and national population, epidemiological and economic data were used to estimate the purchasing power parity-adjusted gross domestic product (PPP-adjusted GDP) loss for all individuals with impaired vision and blindness, and for individuals with normal sight who provide them with informal care. Findings An estimated 158.1 million cases of visual impairment resulted from uncorrected or undercorrected refractive error in 2007; of these, 8.7 million were blind. We estimated the global economic productivity loss in international dollars (I$) associated with this burden at I$ 427.7 billion before, and I$ 268.8 billion after, adjustment for country-specific labour force participation and employment rates. With the same adjustment, but assuming no economic productivity for individuals aged ≥ 50 years, we estimated the potential productivity loss at I$ 121.4 billion. Conclusion Even under the most conservative assumptions, the total estimated productivity loss, in $I, associated with visual impairment from URE is approximately a thousand times greater than the global number of cases. The cost of scaling up existing refractive services to meet this burden is unknown, but if each affected individual were to be provided with appropriate eyeglasses for less than I$ 1000, a net economic gain may be attainable. PMID:19565121

  16. Microphytobenthos potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guarini, Jean-Marc; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, Jody L.; Gros, Philippe

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

  17. Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: Estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin

    PubMed Central

    Kreling, David H.

    1989-01-01

    Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues. PMID:10313098

  18. Assessing potential prescription reimbursement changes: estimated acquisition costs in Wisconsin.

    PubMed

    Kreling, D H

    1989-01-01

    Potential impacts from two methods of changing prescription drug ingredient reimbursement in the Wisconsin Medicaid program were estimated. Current reimbursement amounts were compared with those resulting from either direct prices for eight manufacturers' products and average wholesale price less 10.5 percent for other products or wholesaler cost plus 5.01 percent for all products. The resulting overall average ingredient cost reimbursement reductions were 6.64 percent ($0.56 per prescription) and 6.94 percent ($0.59 per prescription) for the two methods, respectively. The results should be viewed from the perspective of both program savings and reduced pharmacists' revenues.

  19. Market projections of cellulose nanomaterial-enabled products-- Part 2: Volume estimates

    Treesearch

    John Cowie; E.M. (Ted) Bilek; Theodore H. Wegner; Jo Anne Shatkin

    2014-01-01

    Nanocellulose has enormous potential to provide an important materials platform in numerous product sectors. This study builds on previous work by the same authors in which likely high-volume, low-volume, and novel applications for cellulosic nanomaterials were identified. In particular, this study creates a transparent methodology and estimates the potential annual...

  20. The impact of estimation errors on evaluations of timber production opportunities.

    Treesearch

    Dennis L. Schweitzer

    1970-01-01

    Errors in estimating costs and return, the timing of harvests, and the cost of using funds can greatly affect the apparent desirability of investments in timber production. Partial derivatives are used to measure the impact of these errors on the predicted present net worth of potential investments in timber production. Graphs that illustrate the impact of each type...

  1. VirtualToxLab — A platform for estimating the toxic potential of drugs, chemicals and natural products

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vedani, Angelo, E-mail: angelo.vedani@unibas.ch; Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of Basel, Klingelbergstrasse 50, 4056 Basel; Dobler, Max

    The VirtualToxLab is an in silico technology for estimating the toxic potential (endocrine and metabolic disruption, some aspects of carcinogenicity and cardiotoxicity) of drugs, chemicals and natural products. The technology is based on an automated protocol that simulates and quantifies the binding of small molecules towards a series of proteins, known or suspected to trigger adverse effects. The toxic potential, a non-linear function ranging from 0.0 (none) to 1.0 (extreme), is derived from the individual binding affinities of a compound towards currently 16 target proteins: 10 nuclear receptors (androgen, estrogen α, estrogen β, glucocorticoid, liver X, mineralocorticoid, peroxisome proliferator-activated receptormore » γ, progesterone, thyroid α, and thyroid β), four members of the cytochrome P450 enzyme family (1A2, 2C9, 2D6, and 3A4), a cytosolic transcription factor (aryl hydrocarbon receptor) and a potassium ion channel (hERG). The interface to the technology allows building and uploading molecular structures, viewing and downloading results and, most importantly, rationalizing any prediction at the atomic level by interactively analyzing the binding mode of a compound with its target protein(s) in real-time 3D. The VirtualToxLab has been used to predict the toxic potential for over 2500 compounds: the results are posted on (http://www.virtualtoxlab.org). The free platform — the OpenVirtualToxLab — is accessible (in client–server mode) over the Internet. It is free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and non-profit organizations. -- Highlights: ► In silico technology for estimating the toxic potential of drugs and chemicals. ► Simulation of binding towards 16 proteins suspected to trigger adverse effects. ► Mechanistic interpretation and real-time 3D visualization. ► Accessible over the Internet. ► Free of charge for universities, governmental agencies, regulatory bodies and NPOs.« less

  2. Estimating potential emerald ash borer (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) populations using ash inventory data.

    PubMed

    McCullough, Deborah G; Siegert, Nathan W

    2007-10-01

    Emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), a phloem-feeding pest native to Asia, was identified in June 2002 as the cause of widespread ash (Fraxinus spp.), mortality in southeastern Michigan and Windsor, Ontario, Canada. Localized populations of A. planipennis have since been found across lower Michigan and in areas of Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, and Ontario. Officials working to contain A. planipennis and managers of forestlands near A. planipennis infestations must be able to compare alternative strategies to allocate limited funds efficiently and effectively. Empirical data from a total of 148 green ash, Fraxinus pennsylvanica Marsh., and white ash, Fraxinus americana L., trees were used to develop models to estimate surface area of the trunk and branches by using tree diameter at breast height (dbh). Data collected from 71 additional F. pennsylvanica and F. americana trees killed by A. planipennis showed that on average, 88.9 +/- 4.6 beetles developed and emerged per m2 of surface area. Models were applied to ash inventory data collected at two outlier sites to estimate potential production of A. planipennis beetles at each site. Large trees of merchantable size (dbh > or = 26 cm) accounted for roughly 6% of all ash trees at the two sites, but they could have contributed 55-65% of the total A. planipennis production at both sites. In contrast, 75- 80% of the ash trees at the outlier sites were < or =13 cm dbh, but these small trees could have contributed only < or =12% of the potential A. planipennis production at both sites. Our results, in combination with inventory data, can be used by regulatory officials and resource managers to estimate potential A. planipennis production and to compare options for reducing A. planipennis density and slowing the rate of spread for any area of interest.

  3. School District Inputs and Biased Estimation of Educational Production Functions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watts, Michael

    1985-01-01

    In 1979, Eric Hanushek pointed out a potential problem in estimating educational production functions, particularly at the precollege level. He observed that it is frequently inappropriate to include school-system variables in equations using the individual student as the unit of observation. This study offers limited evidence supporting this…

  4. Industrial production and professional application of manufactured nanomaterials-enabled end products in Dutch industries: potential for exposure.

    PubMed

    Bekker, Cindy; Brouwer, Derk H; Tielemans, Erik; Pronk, Anjoeka

    2013-04-01

    In order to make full use of the opportunities while responsibly managing the risks of working with manufactured nanomaterials (MNM), we need to gain insight into the potential level of exposure to MNM in the industry. Therefore, the goal of this study was to obtain an overview of the potential MNM exposure scenarios within relevant industrial sectors, applied exposure controls, and number of workers potentially exposed to MNM in Dutch industrial sectors producing and applying MNM-enabled end products in the Netherlands. A survey was conducted in three phases: (i) identification of MNM-enabled end products; (ii) identification of relevant industrial sectors; and (iii) a tiered telephone survey to estimate actual use of the products among 40 sector organizations/knowledge centres (Tier 1), 350 randomly selected companies (Tier 2), and 110 actively searched companies (Tier 3). The most dominant industrial sectors producing or applying MNM-enabled end products (market penetration >5%) are shoe repair shops, automotive, construction, paint, metal, and textile cleaning industry. In the majority of the companies (76%), potential risks related to working with MNM are not a specific point of interest. The total number of workers potentially exposed to MNM during the production or application of MNM-enabled end products was estimated at approximately 3000 workers in the Netherlands. The results of this study will serve as a basis for in-depth exposure and health surveys that are currently planned in the Netherlands. In addition, the results can be used to identify the most relevant sectors for policy makers and future studies focussing on evaluating the risks of occupational exposure to MNM.

  5. Global climatology and variability of potential new production estimated from remote sensing of sea-surface temperature

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dugdale, Richard C.; Wilkerson, Frances P.

    1995-01-01

    During this project we have collected numerous shipboard data-bases of oceanic nitrate and silicate versus temperature for both equatorial and coastal upwelling regions. These cruises all have accompanying N-15 measurements of new production. The inverse relationships between nutrients and temperatures have been determined and are being used to obtain surface nutrient fields from sea surface temperatures measured remotely by satellite borne sensors- i.e. AVHRR data from NOAA satellites contained in the MCSST data set for the world ocean provided by the University of Miami. The images and data derived from space in this way show the strong seasonal fluctuations and interannual el Nino fluctuations of the nitrate field. the nitrate data has been used to make estimates of new production for the equatorial pacific which are compared with shipboard measurements when available. The importance of silicate as a nutrient driving new production and the ratio of nitrate to silicate has been discovered to be crucial to better understand the causes of new production variability, so we have added these parameters to our study and have begun to make estimates of these for the equatorial Pacific, derived from the weekly averaged sea surface temperatures (SSTs).

  6. [Estimate of the formation potential of secondary organic aerosol in Beijing summertime].

    PubMed

    Lü, Zi-Feng; Hao, Ji-Ming; Duan, Jing-Chun; Li, Jun-Hua

    2009-04-15

    Fractional aerosol coefficients (FAC) are used in conjunction with measurements of volatile organic compounds (VOC) during ozone episodes to estimate the formation potential of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) in the summertime of Beijing. The estimation is based on the actual atmospheric conditions of Beijing, and benzene and isoprene are considered as the precursors of SOA. The results show that 31 out of 70 measured VOC species are SOA precursors, and the total potential SOA formation is predicted to be 8.48 microg/m3, which accounts for 30% of fine organic particle matter. Toluene, xylene, pinene, ethylbenzene and n-undecane are the 5 largest contributors to SOA production and account for 20%, 22%, 14%, 9% and 4% of total SOA production, respectively. The anthropogenic aromatic compounds, which yield 76% of the calculated SOA, are the major source of SOA. The biogenic alkenes, alkanes and carbonyls produce 16%, 7% and 1% of SOA formation, respectively. The major components of produced SOA are expected to be aromatic compounds, aliphatic acids, carbonyls and aliphatic nitrates, which contribute to 72%, 14%, 11% and 3% of SOA mass, respectively. The SOA precursors have relatively low atmospheric concentrations and low ozone formation potential. Hence, SOA formation potential of VOC species, in addition to their atmospheric concentrations and ozone formation potential, should be considered in policy making process of VOCs control.

  7. Estimating maize production in Kenya using NDVI: Some statistical considerations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Lewis, J.E.; Rowland, James; Nadeau , A.

    1998-01-01

    A regression model approach using a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the potential for estimating crop production in East Africa. However, before production estimation can become a reality, the underlying model assumptions and statistical nature of the sample data (NDVI and crop production) must be examined rigorously. Annual maize production statistics from 1982-90 for 36 agricultural districts within Kenya were used as the dependent variable; median area NDVI (independent variable) values from each agricultural district and year were extracted from the annual maximum NDVI data set. The input data and the statistical association of NDVI with maize production for Kenya were tested systematically for the following items: (1) homogeneity of the data when pooling the sample, (2) gross data errors and influence points, (3) serial (time) correlation, (4) spatial autocorrelation and (5) stability of the regression coefficients. The results of using a simple regression model with NDVI as the only independent variable are encouraging (r 0.75, p 0.05) and illustrate that NDVI can be a responsive indicator of maize production, especially in areas of high NDVI spatial variability, which coincide with areas of production variability in Kenya.

  8. How EIA Estimates Natural Gas Production

    EIA Publications

    2004-01-01

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes estimates monthly and annually of the production of natural gas in the United States. The estimates are based on data EIA collects from gas producing states and data collected by the U. S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) in the Department of Interior. The states and MMS collect this information from producers of natural gas for various reasons, most often for revenue purposes. Because the information is not sufficiently complete or timely for inclusion in EIA's Natural Gas Monthly (NGM), EIA has developed estimation methodologies to generate monthly production estimates that are described in this document.

  9. Machine Learning Estimates of Natural Product Conformational Energies

    PubMed Central

    Rupp, Matthias; Bauer, Matthias R.; Wilcken, Rainer; Lange, Andreas; Reutlinger, Michael; Boeckler, Frank M.; Schneider, Gisbert

    2014-01-01

    Machine learning has been used for estimation of potential energy surfaces to speed up molecular dynamics simulations of small systems. We demonstrate that this approach is feasible for significantly larger, structurally complex molecules, taking the natural product Archazolid A, a potent inhibitor of vacuolar-type ATPase, from the myxobacterium Archangium gephyra as an example. Our model estimates energies of new conformations by exploiting information from previous calculations via Gaussian process regression. Predictive variance is used to assess whether a conformation is in the interpolation region, allowing a controlled trade-off between prediction accuracy and computational speed-up. For energies of relaxed conformations at the density functional level of theory (implicit solvent, DFT/BLYP-disp3/def2-TZVP), mean absolute errors of less than 1 kcal/mol were achieved. The study demonstrates that predictive machine learning models can be developed for structurally complex, pharmaceutically relevant compounds, potentially enabling considerable speed-ups in simulations of larger molecular structures. PMID:24453952

  10. Could a tax on unhealthy products sold for weight loss reduce consumer use? A novel estimation of potential taxation effects.

    PubMed

    Bryn Austin, S; Liu, Selena Hua; Tefft, Nathan

    2018-05-26

    Abuse of widely available, over-the-counter (OTC) drugs and supplements such as diet pills, laxatives, and diuretics by adolescents for weight control is well-documented, yet manufacturers and retailers can sell them to minors without restriction. The aim of our study was to estimate the effect of added taxation of OTC drugs and dietary supplements sold for weight loss on household purchases of these products. With data from 60,538 U.S. households in the 2012 waves of the Nielsen/IRi National Consumer Panel (NCP) and the Nielsen/IRi Retail Scanner (NRS) datasets, we conducted analyses in 2017 to tally annual quantities and expenditures on OTC drugs or dietary supplements making weight-loss, cleanse/detox, or diuretic claims. We estimated the percent reduction in household purchases due to a simulated 20% added tax on each category. Among the 14,151 households reporting at least one purchase in the three claims categories, a 20% higher average price of weight-loss products was associated with a 5.2% lower purchases of those products. Among households with children ages 12 to 17 years old present, purchases were 17.5% lower, and among households with a daughter present, purchases were 10.3% lower. Taxation may be an effective public health strategy to reduce purchasing of potentially dangerous OTC drugs and supplements sold for weight loss, especially for households that include children ages 12-17 years old or a daughter. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  11. Assessment of potential biomass energy production in China towards 2030 and 2050

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Guangling

    2018-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to provide a more detailed picture of potential biomass energy production in the Chinese energy system towards 2030 and 2050. Biomass for bioenergy feedstocks comes from five sources, which are agricultural crop residues, forest residues and industrial wood waste, energy crops and woody crops, animal manure, and municipal solid waste. The potential biomass production is predicted based on the resource availability. In the process of identifying biomass resources production, assumptions are made regarding arable land, marginal land, crops yields, forest growth rate, and meat consumption and waste production. Four scenarios were designed to describe the potential biomass energy production to elaborate the role of biomass energy in the Chinese energy system in 2030. The assessment shows that under certain restrictions on land availability, the maximum potential biomass energy productions are estimated to be 18,833 and 24,901 PJ in 2030 and 2050.

  12. Potential Utility of the Real-Time TMPA-RT Precipitation Estimates in Streamflow Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Su, Fengge; Gao, Huilin; Huffman, George J.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential utility of the real-time Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA-RT) data for streamflow prediction, both through direct comparisons of TMPA-RT estimates with a gridded gauge product, and through evaluation of streamflow simulations over four tributaries of La Plata Basin (LPB) in South America using the two precipitation products. Our assessments indicate that the relative accuracy and the hydrologic performance of TMPA-RT-based streamflow simulations generally improved after February 2005. The improvements in TMPA-RT since 2005 are closely related to upgrades in the TMPA-RT algorithm in early February, 2005 which include use of additional microwave sensors (AMSR-E and AMSU-B) and implementation of different calibration schemes. Our work suggests considerable potential for hydrologic prediction using purely satellite-derived precipitation estimates (no adjustments by in situ gauges) in parts of the globe where in situ observations are sparse.

  13. Linking Climate Suitability, Spread Rates and Host-Impact When Estimating the Potential Costs of Invasive Pests

    PubMed Central

    Kriticos, Darren J.; Leriche, Agathe; Palmer, David J.; Cook, David C.; Brockerhoff, Eckehard G.; Stephens, Andréa E. A.; Watt, Michael S.

    2013-01-01

    Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand’s merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates. PMID:23405097

  14. Regional estimates of reef carbonate dynamics and productivity Using Landsat 7 ETM+, and potential impacts from ocean acidification

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moses, C.S.; Andrefouet, S.; Kranenburg, C.; Muller-Karger, F. E.

    2009-01-01

    Using imagery at 30 m spatial resolution from the most recent Landsat satellite, the Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+), we scale up reef metabolic productivity and calcification from local habitat-scale (10 -1 to 100 km2) measurements to regional scales (103 to 104 km2). Distribution and spatial extent of the North Florida Reef Tract (NFRT) habitats come from supervised classification of the Landsat imagery within independent Landsat-derived Millennium Coral Reef Map geomorphologic classes. This system minimizes the depth range and variability of benthic habitat characteristics found in the area of supervised classification and limits misclassification. Classification of Landsat imagery into 5 biotopes (sand, dense live cover, sparse live cover, seagrass, and sparse seagrass) by geomorphologic class is >73% accurate at regional scales. Based on recently published habitat-scale in situ metabolic measurements, gross production (P = 3.01 ?? 109 kg C yr -1), excess production (E = -5.70 ?? 108 kg C yr -1), and calcification (G = -1.68 ?? 106 kg CaCO 3 yr-1) are estimated over 2711 km2 of the NFRT. Simple models suggest sensitivity of these values to ocean acidification, which will increase local dissolution of carbonate sediments. Similar approaches could be applied over large areas with poorly constrained bathymetry or water column properties and minimal metabolic sampling. This tool has potential applications for modeling and monitoring large-scale environmental impacts on reef productivity, such as the influence of ocean acidification on coral reef environments. ?? Inter-Research 2009.

  15. Updates to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Augustine, Chad

    The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

  16. Microphytobenthic potential productivity estimated in three tidal embayments of the San Francisco Bay: A comparative study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Guarini, J.-M.; Cloern, James E.; Edmunds, J.

    2002-01-01

    In this paper we describe a three-step procedure to infer the spatial heterogeneity in microphytobenthos primary productivity at the scale of tidal estuaries and embayments. The first step involves local measurement of the carbon assimilation rate of benthic microalgae to determine the parameters of the photosynthesis-irradiance (P-E) curves (using non-linear optimization methods). In the next step, a resampling technique is used to rebuild pseudo-sampling distributions of the local productivity estimates; these provide error estimates for determining the significance level of differences between sites. The third step combines the previous results with deterministic models of tidal elevation and solar irradiance to compute mean and variance of the daily areal primary productivity over an entire intertidal mudflat area within each embayment. This scheme was applied on three different intertidal mudflat regions of the San Francisco Bay estuary during autumn 1998. Microphytobenthos productivity exhibits strong (ca. 3-fold) significant differences among the major sub-basins of San Francisco Bay. This spatial heterogeneity is attributed to two main causes: significant differences in the photosynthetic competence (P-E parameters) of the microphytobenthos in the different sub-basins, and spatial differences in the phase shifts between the tidal and solar cycles controlling the exposure of intertidal areas to sunlight. The procedure is general and can be used in other estuaries to assess the magnitude and patterns of spatial variability of microphytobenthos productivity at the level of the ecosystems.

  17. Estimating the Effects of the Terminal Area Productivity Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, David A.; Kostiuk, Peter F.; Hemm, Robert V., Jr.; Wingrove, Earl R., III; Shapiro, Gerald

    1997-01-01

    The report describes methods and results of an analysis of the technical and economic benefits of the systems to be developed in the NASA Terminal Area Productivity (TAP) program. A runway capacity model using parameters that reflect the potential impact of the TAP technologies is described. The runway capacity model feeds airport specific models which are also described. The capacity estimates are used with a queuing model to calculate aircraft delays, and TAP benefits are determined by calculating the savings due to reduced delays. The report includes benefit estimates for Boston Logan and Detroit Wayne County airports. An appendix includes a description and listing of the runway capacity model.

  18. Mapping and imputing potential productivity of Pacific Northwest forests using climate variables

    Treesearch

    Gregory Latta; Hailemariam Temesgen; Tara Barrett

    2009-01-01

    Regional estimation of potential forest productivity is important to diverse applications, including biofuels supply, carbon sequestration, and projections of forest growth. Using PRISM (Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model) climate and productivity data measured on a grid of 3356 Forest Inventory and Analysis plots in Oregon and Washington, we...

  19. Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nalepka, R. F.; Colwell, J. E. (Principal Investigator); Rice, D. P.; Bresnahan, P. A.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. Large area LANDSAT yield estimates were generated. These results were compared with estimates computed using a meteorological yield model (CCEA). Both of these estimates were compared with Kansas Crop and Livestock Reporting Service (KCLRS) estimates of yield, in an attempt to assess the relative and absolute accuracy of the LANDSAT and CCEA estimates. Results were inconclusive. A large area direct wheat prediction procedure was implemented. Initial results have produced a wheat production estimate comparable with the KCLRS estimate.

  20. Estimating soil matric potential in Owens Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorenson, Stephen K.; Miller, R.F.; Welch, M.R.; Groeneveld, D.P.; Branson, F.A.

    1988-01-01

    Much of the floor of the Owens Valley, California, is covered with alkaline scrub and alkaline meadow plant communities, whose existence is dependent partly on precipitation and partly on water infiltrated into the rooting zone from the shallow water table. The extent to which these plant communities are capable of adapting to and surviving fluctuations in the water table depends on physiological adaptations of the plants and on the water content, matric potential characteristics of the soils. Two methods were used to estimate soil matric potential in test sites in Owens Valley. The first was the filter-paper method, which uses water content of filter papers equilibrated to water content of soil samples taken with a hand auger. The other method of estimating soil matric potential was a modeling approach based on data from this and previous investigations. These data indicate that the base 10 logarithm of soil matric potential is a linear function of gravimetric soil water content for a particular soil. Estimates of soil water characteristic curves were made at two sites by averaging the gravimetric soil water content and soil matric potential values from multiple samples at 0.1 m depths derived by using the hand auger and filter paper method and entering these values in the soil water model. The characteristic curves then were used to estimate soil matric potential from estimates of volumetric soil water content derived from neutron-probe readings. Evaluation of the modeling technique at two study sites indicated that estimates of soil matric potential within 0.5 pF units of the soil matric potential value derived by using the filter paper method could be obtained 90 to 95% of the time in soils where water content was less than field capacity. The greatest errors occurred at depths where there was a distinct transition between soils of different textures. (Lantz-PTT)

  1. Product line cost estimation: a standard cost approach.

    PubMed

    Cooper, J C; Suver, J D

    1988-04-01

    Product line managers often must make decisions based on inaccurate cost information. A method is needed to determine costs more accurately. By using a standard costing model, product line managers can better estimate the cost of intermediate and end products, and hence better estimate the costs of the product line.

  2. Potential Nationwide Improvements in Productivity and Health from Better Indoor Environments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fisk, W.J.; Rosenfeld, A.H.

    1998-05-01

    Theoretical considerations and empirical data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environments in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. Existing literature contains moderate to strong evidence that characteristics of buildings and indoor environments significantly influence rates of respiratory disease, allergy and asthma symptoms, sick building symptoms, and worker performance. While there is considerable uncertainty in our estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained by providing better indoor environments, the projected gains are very large. For the U.S., we estimate potential annual savings and productivity gains of $6 to $19 billion frommore » reduced respiratory disease, $1 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $20 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $12 to $125 billion from direct improvements in worker performance that are unrelated to health. In two example calculations, the potential financial benefits of improving indoor environments exceed costs by a factor of 8 and 14. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

  3. Potential nationwide improvements in productivity and health from better indoor environments

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fisk, W.J.; Rosenfeld, A.H.

    1998-07-01

    Theoretical considerations and empirical data suggest that existing technologies and procedures can improve indoor environments in a manner that significantly increases productivity and health. Existing literature contains moderate to strong evidence that characteristics of buildings and indoor environments significantly influence rates of respiratory disease, allergy and asthma symptoms, sick building symptoms, and worker performance. While there is considerable uncertainty in their estimates of the magnitudes of productivity gains that may be obtained by providing better indoor environments, the projected gains are very large. For the US, the authors estimate potential annual savings and productivity gains of $6 to $19 billionmore » from reduced respiratory disease, $1 to $4 billion from reduced allergies and asthma, $10 to $20 billion from reduced sick building syndrome symptoms, and $12 to $125 billion from direct improvements in worker performance that are unrelated to health. In two example calculations, the potential financial benefits of improving indoor environments exceed costs by a factor of 8 and 14. Productivity gains that are quantified and demonstrated could serve as a strong stimulus for energy efficiency measures that simultaneously improve the indoor environment.« less

  4. Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa.

    PubMed

    Ardö, Jonas

    2015-12-01

    Africa is an important part of the global carbon cycle. It is also a continent facing potential problems due to increasing resource demand in combination with climate change-induced changes in resource supply. Quantifying the pools and fluxes constituting the terrestrial African carbon cycle is a challenge, because of uncertainties in meteorological driver data, lack of validation data, and potentially uncertain representation of important processes in major ecosystems. In this paper, terrestrial primary production estimates derived from remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model are compared and quantified for major African land cover types. Continental gross primary production estimates derived from remote sensing were higher than corresponding estimates derived from a dynamic vegetation model. However, estimates of continental net primary production from remote sensing were lower than corresponding estimates from the dynamic vegetation model. Variation was found among land cover classes, and the largest differences in gross primary production were found in the evergreen broadleaf forest. Average carbon use efficiency (NPP/GPP) was 0.58 for the vegetation model and 0.46 for the remote sensing method. Validation versus in situ data of aboveground net primary production revealed significant positive relationships for both methods. A combination of the remote sensing method with the dynamic vegetation model did not strongly affect this relationship. Observed significant differences in estimated vegetation productivity may have several causes, including model design and temperature sensitivity. Differences in carbon use efficiency reflect underlying model assumptions. Integrating the realistic process representation of dynamic vegetation models with the high resolution observational strength of remote sensing may support realistic estimation of components of the carbon cycle and enhance resource monitoring, providing suitable validation data is available.

  5. Estimating soil matric potential in Owens Valley, California

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sorenson, Stephen K.; Miller, Reuben F.; Welch, Michael R.; Groeneveld, David P.; Branson, Farrel A.

    1989-01-01

    Much of the floor of Owens Valley, California, is covered with alkaline scrub and alkaline meadow plant communities, whose existence is dependent partly on precipitation and partly on water infiltrated into the rooting zone from the shallow water table. The extent to which these plant communities are capable of adapting to and surviving fluctuations in the water table depends on physiological adaptations of the plants and on the water content, matric potential characteristics of the soils. Two methods were used to estimate soil matric potential in test sites in Owens Valley. The first, the filter-paper method, uses water content of filter papers equilibrated to water content of soil samples taken with a hand auger. The previously published calibration relations used to estimate soil matric potential from the water content of the filter papers were modified on the basis of current laboratory data. The other method of estimating soil matric potential was a modeling approach based on data from this and previous investigations. These data indicate that the base-10 logarithm of soil matric potential is a linear function of gravimetric soil water content for a particular soil. The slope and intercepts of this function vary with the texture and saturation capacity of the soil. Estimates of soil water characteristic curves were made at two sites by averaging the gravimetric soil water content and soil matric potential values from multiple samples at 0.1-m depth intervals derived by using the hand auger and filter-paper method and entering these values in the soil water model. The characteristic curves then were used to estimate soil matric potential from estimates of volumetric soil water content derived from neutron-probe readings. Evaluation of the modeling technique at two study sites indicated that estimates of soil matric potential within 0.5 pF units of the soil matric potential value derived by using the filter-paper method could be obtained 90 to 95 percent of the

  6. Drought, Climate Change and Potential Agricultural Productivity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheffield, J.; Herrera-Estrada, J. E.; Caylor, K. K.; Wood, E. F.

    2011-12-01

    Drought is a major factor in agricultural productivity, especially in developing regions where the capacity for water resources management is limited and climate variability ensures that drought is recurrent and problematic. Recent events in East Africa are testament to this, where drought conditions that have slowly developed over multiple years have contributed to reduced productivity and ultimately food crises and famine. Prospects for the future are not promising given ongoing problems of dwindling water supplies from non-renewable sources and the potential for increased water scarcity and increased drought with climate change. This is set against the expected increase in population by over 2 billion people by 2050 and rise in food demand, coupled with changes in demographics that affect food choices and increases in non-food agriculture. In this talk we discuss the global variability of drought over the 20th century and recent years, and the projected changes over the 21st century, and how this translates into changes in potential agricultural productivity. Drought is quantified using land surface hydrological models driven by a hybrid reanalysis-observational meteorological forcing dataset. Drought is defined in terms of anomalies of hydroclimatic variables, in particular precipitation, evaporation and soil moisture, and we calculate changes in various drought characteristics. Potential agricultural productivity is derived from the balance of precipitation to crop water demand, where demand is based on potential evaporation and crop coefficients for a range of staple crops. Some regional examples are shown of historic variations in drought and potential productivity, and the estimated water deficit for various crops. The multitude of events over the past decade, including heat waves in Europe, fires in Russia, long-term drought in northern China, southeast Australia, the Western US and a series of droughts in the Amazon and Argentina, hint at the influence of

  7. Lexical stress encoding in single word production estimated by event-related brain potentials.

    PubMed

    Schiller, Niels O

    2006-09-27

    An event-related brain potentials (ERPs) experiment was carried out to investigate the time course of lexical stress encoding in language production. Native speakers of Dutch viewed a series of pictures corresponding to bisyllabic names which were either stressed on the first or on the second syllable and made go/no-go decisions on the lexical stress location of those picture names. Behavioral results replicated a pattern that was observed earlier, i.e. faster button-press latencies to initial as compared to final stress targets. The electrophysiological results indicated that participants could make a lexical stress decision significantly earlier when picture names had initial than when they had final stress. Moreover, the present data suggest the time course of lexical stress encoding during single word form formation in language production. When word length is corrected for, the temporal interval for lexical stress encoding specified by the current ERP results falls into the time window previously identified for phonological encoding in language production.

  8. Estimating the cost of production stoppage

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delionback, L. M.

    1979-01-01

    Estimation model considers learning curve quantities, and time of break to forecast losses due to break in production schedule. Major parameters capable of predicting costs are number of units made prior to production sequence, length of production break, and slope of learning curve produced prior to break.

  9. Validation databases for simulation models: aboveground biomass and net primary productive, (NPP) estimation using eastwide FIA data

    Treesearch

    Jennifer C. Jenkins; Richard A. Birdsey

    2000-01-01

    As interest grows in the role of forest growth in the carbon cycle, and as simulation models are applied to predict future forest productivity at large spatial scales, the need for reliable and field-based data for evaluation of model estimates is clear. We created estimates of potential forest biomass and annual aboveground production for the Chesapeake Bay watershed...

  10. Cyclic voltammetry to evaluate the antioxidant potential in winemaking by-products.

    PubMed

    José Jara-Palacios, M; Luisa Escudero-Gilete, M; Miguel Hernández-Hierro, J; Heredia, Francisco J; Hernanz, Dolores

    2017-04-01

    Grape pomace is composed of seeds, skins and stems that are an important source of phenolic substances, which have antioxidant properties and potential benefits to human health. Cyclic voltammetry (CV) has been used to measure the total antioxidant potential of different winemaking by-products. The electrochemical behavior of pomace, seeds, skins and stems was measured by CV and lipid peroxidation inhibition by thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) method. Differences for the electrochemical parameter were found between the by-products, pomace and seeds, which presented the greatest voltammetric peak area. Furthermore, the by-products induced inhibition of lipid peroxidation in rat liver homogenates. Pomace and seeds showed higher capacity to inhibit lipid peroxidation than stems and skins, which could be because these by-products are richer in flavanols. Simple regression analyses showed that voltammetric parameters are highly correlated to the values obtained for lipid peroxidation inhibition. CV is a promising technique to estimate the total antioxidant potential of phenolic extract from winemaking by-products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in southwest China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Di; Wang, Jing; Dai, Tong; Feng, Liping; Zhang, Jianping; Pan, Xuebiao; Pan, Zhihua

    2014-12-01

    The impact of climate change on maize potential productivity and the potential productivity gap in Southwest China (SWC) are investigated in this paper. We analyze the impact of climate change on the photosynthetic, light-temperature, and climatic potential productivity of maize and their gaps in SWC, by using a crop growth dynamics statistical method. During the maize growing season from 1961 to 2010, minimum temperature increased by 0.20°C per decade ( p < 0.01) across SWC. The largest increases in average and minimum temperatures were observed mostly in areas of Yunnan Province. Growing season average sunshine hours decreased by 0.2 h day-1 per decade ( p < 0.01) and total precipitation showed an insignificant decreasing trend across SWC. Photosynthetic potential productivity decreased by 298 kg ha-1 per decade ( p < 0.05). Both light-temperature and climatic potential productivity decreased ( p < 0.05) in the northeast of SWC, whereas they increased ( p < 0.05) in the southwest of SWC. The gap between light-temperature and climatic potential productivity varied from 12 to 2729 kg ha-1, with the high value areas centered in northern and southwestern SWC. Climatic productivity of these areas reached only 10%-24% of the light-temperature potential productivity, suggesting that there is great potential to increase the maize potential yield by improving water management in these areas. In particular, the gap has become larger in the most recent 10 years. Sensitivity analysis shows that the climatic potential productivity of maize is most sensitive to changes in temperature in SWC. The findings of this study are helpful for quantification of irrigation water requirements so as to achieve maximum yield potentials in SWC.

  12. Potential commercial uses of EOS remote sensing products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Leslie L.

    1991-01-01

    The instrument complement of the Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite system will generate data sets with potential interest to a variety of users who are now just beginning to develop geographic information systems tailored to their special applications and/or jurisdictions. Other users may be looking for a unique product that enhances competitive position. The generally distributed products from EOS will require additional value added processing to derive the unique products desired by specific users. Entrepreneurs have an opportunity to create these proprietary level 4 products from the EOS data sets. Specific instruments or collections of instruments could provide information for crop futures trading, mineral exploration, television and printed medium news products, regional and local government land management and planning, digital map directories, products for third world users, ocean fishing fleet probability of harvest forecasts, and other areas not even imagined at this time. The projected level 3 product are examined that will be available at launch from EOS instruments and commercial uses of the data after value added processing is estimated.

  13. Concurrent estimates of carbon export reveal physical biases in ΔO2/Ar-based net community production estimates in the Southern California Bight

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haskell, William Z.; Fleming, John C.

    2018-07-01

    Net community production (NCP) represents the amount of biologically-produced organic carbon that is available to be exported out of the surface ocean and is typically estimated using measurements of the O2/Ar ratio in the surface mixed layer under the assumption of negligible vertical transport. However, physical processes can significantly bias NCP estimates based on this in-situ tracer. It is actively debated whether discrepancies between O2/Ar-based NCP and carbon export estimates are due to differences in the location of biological production and export, or the result of physical biases. In this study, we calculate export production across the euphotic depth during two months of upwelling in Southern California in 2014, based on an estimate of the consumption rate of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and the dissolved: total organic carbon consumption ratio below the euphotic depth. This estimate equals the concurrent O2/Ar-based NCP estimates over the same period that are corrected for physical biases, but is significantly different than NCP estimated without a correction for vertical transport. This comparison demonstrates that concurrent physical transport estimates would significantly improve O2/Ar-based estimates of NCP, particularly in settings with vertical advection. Potential approaches to mitigate this bias are discussed.

  14. Update to Enhanced Geothermal System Resource Potential Estimate: Preprint

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Augustine, Chad

    2016-10-01

    The deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate maintained by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory was updated using the most recent temperature-at-depth maps available from the Southern Methodist University Geothermal Laboratory. The previous study dates back to 2011 and was developed using the original temperature-at-depth maps showcased in the 2006 MIT Future of Geothermal Energy report. The methodology used to update the deep EGS resource potential is the same as in the previous study and is summarized in the paper. The updated deep EGS resource potential estimate was calculated for depths between 3 and 7 km and is binned inmore » 25 degrees C increments. The updated deep EGS electricity generation resource potential estimate is 4,349 GWe. A comparison of the estimates from the previous and updated studies shows a net increase of 117 GWe in the 3-7 km depth range, due mainly to increases in the underlying temperature-at-depth estimates from the updated maps.« less

  15. Estimating Primary Production of Picophytoplankton Using the Carbon-Based Ocean Productivity Model: A Preliminary Study

    PubMed Central

    Liang, Yantao; Zhang, Yongyu; Wang, Nannan; Luo, Tingwei; Zhang, Yao; Rivkin, Richard B.

    2017-01-01

    Picophytoplankton are acknowledged to contribute significantly to primary production (PP) in the ocean while now the method to measure PP of picophytoplankton (PPPico) at large scales is not yet well established. Although the traditional 14C method and new technologies based on the use of stable isotopes (e.g., 13C) can be employed to accurately measure in situ PPPico, the time-consuming and labor-intensive shortage of these methods constrain their application in a survey on large spatiotemporal scales. To overcome this shortage, a modified carbon-based ocean productivity model (CbPM) is proposed for estimating the PPPico whose principle is based on the group-specific abundance, cellular carbon conversion factor (CCF), and temperature-derived growth rate of picophytoplankton. Comparative analysis showed that the estimated PPPico using CbPM method is significantly and positively related (r2 = 0.53, P < 0.001, n = 171) to the measured 14C uptake. This significant relationship suggests that CbPM has the potential to estimate the PPPico over large spatial and temporal scales. Currently this model application may be limited by the use of invariant cellular CCF and the relatively small data sets to validate the model which may introduce some uncertainties and biases. Model performance will be improved by the use of variable conversion factors and the larger data sets representing diverse growth conditions. Finally, we apply the CbPM-based model on the collected data during four cruises in the Bohai Sea in 2005. Model-estimated PPPico ranged from 0.1 to 11.9, 29.9 to 432.8, 5.5 to 214.9, and 2.4 to 65.8 mg C m-2 d-1 during March, June, September, and December, respectively. This study shed light on the estimation of global PPPico using carbon-based production model. PMID:29051755

  16. Behavioral factors affecting exposure potential for household cleaning products.

    PubMed

    Kovacs, D C; Small, M J; Davidson, C I; Fischhoff, B

    1997-01-01

    Behavioral experiments were performed on 342 subjects to determine whether behavior, which could affect the level of personal exposure, is exhibited in response to odors and labels which are commonly used for household chemicals. Potential for exposure was assessed by having subjects perform cleaning tasks presented as a product preference test, and noting the amount of cleaning product used, the time taken to complete the cleaning task, the product preference, and the exhibition of avoidance behavior. Product odor was found to affect product preference in the study with the pleasant odored product being preferred to the neutral and unpleasant products. Product odor was also found to influence the amount of product used; less of the odored products was used compared to the neutral product. The experiment also found that very few of the subjects in the study read the product labels, precluding analysis of the effect of such labels on product use. A postexperiment questionnaire on household cleaning product purchasing and use was administered to participants. The results indicate that significant gender differences exist. Women in the sample reported more frequent purchase and use of cleaning products resulting in an estimated potential exposure 40% greater than for the men in the sample. This finding is somewhat countered by the fact that women more frequently reported exposure avoidance behavior, such as using gloves. Additional significant gender differences were found in the stated importance of product qualities, such as odor and environmental quality. This study suggests the need for further research, in a more realistic use setting, on the impact of public education, labels, and product odor on preference, use, and exposure for different types of consumer products.

  17. Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, W. Kolby; Cleveland, Cory C.; Reed, Sasha C.; Miller, Norman L.; Running, Steven W.

    2012-01-01

    United States (U.S.) energy policy includes an expectation that bioenergy will be a substantial future energy source. In particular, the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) aims to increase annual U.S. biofuel (secondary bioenergy) production by more than 3-fold, from 40 to 136 billion liters ethanol, which implies an even larger increase in biomass demand (primary energy), from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 EJ yr–1. However, our understanding of many of the factors used to establish such energy targets is far from complete, introducing significgant uncertainty into the feasibility of current estimates of bioenergy potential. Here, we utilized satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data—measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S.—to estimate primary bioenergy potential (PBP). Our results indicate that PBP of the conterminous U.S. ranges from roughly 5.9 to 22.2 EJ yr–1, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents the potential when harvesting residues only, while the high end would require an annual biomass harvest over an area more than three times current U.S. agricultural extent. While EISA energy targets are theoretically achievable, we show that meeting these targets utilizing current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current crop harvest or the conversion of 60% of rangeland productivity. Accordingly, realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential are critical for effective incorporation of bioenergy into the national energy portfolio.

  18. Estimating a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria in communities.

    PubMed

    Kiszewski, A E; Darling, S T

    2010-12-01

    Probability models for assessing a mosquito repellent's potential to reduce malaria transmission are not readily available to public health researchers. To provide a means for estimating the epidemiological efficacy of mosquito repellents in communities, we developed a simple mathematical model. A static probability model is presented to simulate malaria infection in a community during a single transmission season. The model includes five parameters- sporozoite rate, human infection rate, biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product-acceptance rate. The model assumes that a certain percentage of the population uses a personal mosquito repellent over the course of a seven-month transmission season and that this repellent maintains a constant rate of protective efficacy against the bites of malaria vectors. This model measures the probability of evading infection in circumstances where vector biting pressure, repellent efficacy, and product acceptance may vary. [corrected] Absolute protection using mosquito repellents alone requires high rates of repellent efficacy and product acceptance. [corrected] Using performance data from a highly effective repellent, the model estimates an 88.9% reduction of infections over a seven- month transmission season. A corresponding reduction in the incidence of super-infection in community members not completely evading infection can also be presumed. Thus, the model shows that mass distribution of a repellent with >98% efficacy and >98% product acceptance would suppress new malaria infections to levels lower than those achieved with insecticide treated nets (ITNs). A combination of both interventions could create synergies that result in reductions of disease burden significantly greater than with the use of ITNs alone.

  19. Assessing concentration uncertainty estimates from passive microwave sea ice products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meier, W.; Brucker, L.; Miller, J. A.

    2017-12-01

    Sea ice concentration is an essential climate variable and passive microwave derived estimates of concentration are one of the longest satellite-derived climate records. However, until recently uncertainty estimates were not provided. Numerous validation studies provided insight into general error characteristics, but the studies have found that concentration error varied greatly depending on sea ice conditions. Thus, an uncertainty estimate from each observation is desired, particularly for initialization, assimilation, and validation of models. Here we investigate three sea ice products that include an uncertainty for each concentration estimate: the NASA Team 2 algorithm product, the EUMETSAT Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI-SAF) product, and the NOAA/NSIDC Climate Data Record (CDR) product. Each product estimates uncertainty with a completely different approach. The NASA Team 2 product derives uncertainty internally from the algorithm method itself. The OSI-SAF uses atmospheric reanalysis fields and a radiative transfer model. The CDR uses spatial variability from two algorithms. Each approach has merits and limitations. Here we evaluate the uncertainty estimates by comparing the passive microwave concentration products with fields derived from the NOAA VIIRS sensor. The results show that the relationship between the product uncertainty estimates and the concentration error (relative to VIIRS) is complex. This may be due to the sea ice conditions, the uncertainty methods, as well as the spatial and temporal variability of the passive microwave and VIIRS products.

  20. Estimating national crop yield potential and the relevance of weather data sources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Wart, Justin

    2011-12-01

    To determine where, when, and how to increase yields, researchers often analyze the yield gap (Yg), the difference between actual current farm yields and crop yield potential. Crop yield potential (Yp) is the yield of a crop cultivar grown under specific management limited only by temperature and solar radiation and also by precipitation for water limited yield potential (Yw). Yp and Yw are critical components of Yg estimations, but are very difficult to quantify, especially at larger scales because management data and especially daily weather data are scarce. A protocol was developed to estimate Yp and Yw at national scales using site-specific weather, soils and management data. Protocol procedures and inputs were evaluated to determine how to improve accuracy of Yp, Yw and Yg estimates. The protocol was also used to evaluate raw, site-specific and gridded weather database sources for use in simulations of Yp or Yw. The protocol was applied to estimate crop Yp in US irrigated maize and Chinese irrigated rice and Yw in US rainfed maize and German rainfed wheat. These crops and countries account for >20% of global cereal production. The results have significant implications for past and future studies of Yp, Yw and Yg. Accuracy of national long-term average Yp and Yw estimates was significantly improved if (i) > 7 years of simulations were performed for irrigated and > 15 years for rainfed sites, (ii) > 40% of nationally harvested area was within 100 km of all simulation sites, (iii) observed weather data coupled with satellite derived solar radiation data were used in simulations, and (iv) planting and harvesting dates were specified within +/- 7 days of farmers actual practices. These are much higher standards than have been applied in national estimates of Yp and Yw and this protocol is a substantial step in making such estimates more transparent, robust, and straightforward. Finally, this protocol may be a useful tool for understanding yield trends and directing

  1. Developing a Model to Estimate Freshwater Gross Primary Production Using MODIS Surface Temperature Observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saberi, S. J.; Weathers, K. C.; Norouzi, H.; Prakash, S.; Solomon, C.; Boucher, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    Lakes contribute to local and regional climate conditions, cycle nutrients, and are viable indicators of climate change due to their sensitivity to disturbances in their water and airsheds. Utilizing spaceborne remote sensing (RS) techniques has considerable potential in studying lake dynamics because it allows for coherent and consistent spatial and temporal observations as well as estimates of lake functions without in situ measurements. However, in order for RS products to be useful, algorithms that relate in situ measurements to RS data must be developed. Estimates of lake metabolic rates are of particular scientific interest since they are indicative of lakes' roles in carbon cycling and ecological function. Currently, there are few existing algorithms relating remote sensing products to in-lake estimates of metabolic rates and more in-depth studies are still required. Here we use satellite surface temperature observations from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) product (MYD11A2) and published in-lake gross primary production (GPP) estimates for eleven globally distributed lakes during a one-year period to produce a univariate quadratic equation model. The general model was validated using other lakes during an equivalent one-year time period (R2=0.76). The statistical analyses reveal significant positive relationships between MODIS temperature data and the previously modeled in-lake GPP. Lake-specific models for Lake Mendota (USA), Rotorua (New Zealand), and Taihu (China) showed stronger relationships than the general combined model, pointing to local influences such as watershed characteristics on in-lake GPP in some cases. These validation data suggest that the developed algorithm has a potential to predict lake GPP on a global scale.

  2. Reassessing Wind Potential Estimates for India: Economic and Policy Implications

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Phadke, Amol; Bharvirkar, Ranjit; Khangura, Jagmeet

    2011-09-15

    We assess developable on-shore wind potential in India at three different hub-heights and under two sensitivity scenarios – one with no farmland included, the other with all farmland included. Under the “no farmland included” case, the total wind potential in India ranges from 748 GW at 80m hub-height to 976 GW at 120m hub-height. Under the “all farmland included” case, the potential with a minimum capacity factor of 20 percent ranges from 984 GW to 1,549 GW. High quality wind energy sites, at 80m hub-height with a minimum capacity factor of 25 percent, have a potential between 253 GW (nomore » farmland included) and 306 GW (all farmland included). Our estimates are more than 15 times the current official estimate of wind energy potential in India (estimated at 50m hub height) and are about one tenth of the official estimate of the wind energy potential in the US.« less

  3. Viral lysis, flagellate grazing potential, and bacterial production in Lake Pavin.

    PubMed

    Bettarel, Y; Amblard, C; Sime-Ngando, T; Carrias, J-F; Sargos, D; Garabétian, F; Lavandier, P

    2003-02-01

    Abundances of different compartments of the microbial loop (i.e., viruses, heterotrophic bacteria, nonpigmented nanoflagellates, and pigmented nanoflagellates), bacterial heterotrophic production (BHP), viral lysis, and potential flagellate grazing impacts on the bacterial assemblages were estimated during a short-term study (24 h) conducted in June 1998 in the epilimnion (5 m) and metalimnion (10 m) of a moderate-altitude oligomesotrophic lake (Lake Pavin, France). Viral and bacterial abundances were higher in the metalimnion than in the epilimnion, whereas pigmented and nonpigmented nanoflagellates were more numerous in the epilimnion. The control of the BHP due to viral lysis (determined by examination of viral-containing bacteria using a transmission electron microscope) was significantly higher in the meta- (range = 6.0-33.7%, mean = 15.6%) than in the epilimnion (3.5-10.3%, 6.4%). The same was for the losses of BHP from the potential predation by nanoflagellates which ranged from 0.5 to 115.4% (mean = 38.7%) in the epilimnion, and from 0.7 to 97.5% (mean = 66.7%) in the metalimnion. Finally, estimated viral mediated mortality rates from the percentage of visibly infected cells and potential nanoflagellate grazing rates based on assumed clearance rates suggest that flagellates consumed a larger proportion of bacterial production than was lost to viral lysis.

  4. A technique for estimating seed production of common moist soil plants

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Laubhan, Murray K.

    1992-01-01

    accomplished on an area within a few days. Estimates of seed production derived with this technique are used, in combination with other available information, to determine the potential number of waterfowl use-days available and to evaluate the effects of various management strategies on a particular site.

  5. Comparison of Employer Productivity Metrics to Lost Productivity Estimated by Commonly Used Questionnaires.

    PubMed

    Gardner, Bethany T; Dale, Ann Marie; Buckner-Petty, Skye; Van Dillen, Linda; Amick, Benjamin C; Evanoff, Bradley

    2016-02-01

    The aim of the study was to assess construct and discriminant validity of four health-related work productivity loss questionnaires in relation to employer productivity metrics, and to describe variation in economic estimates of productivity loss provided by the questionnaires in healthy workers. Fifty-eight billing office workers completed surveys including health information and four productivity loss questionnaires. Employer productivity metrics and work hours were also obtained. Productivity loss questionnaires were weakly to moderately correlated with employer productivity metrics. Workers with more health complaints reported greater health-related productivity loss than healthier workers, but showed no loss on employer productivity metrics. Economic estimates of productivity loss showed wide variation among questionnaires, yet no loss of actual productivity. Additional studies are needed comparing questionnaires with objective measures in larger samples and other industries, to improve measurement methods for health-related productivity loss.

  6. Comparison of employer productivity metrics to lost productivity estimated by commonly used questionnaires

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Bethany T.; Dale, Ann Marie; Buckner-Petty, Skye; Van Dillen, Linda; Amick, Benjamin C.; Evanoff, Bradley

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess construct and discriminant validity of four health-related work productivity loss questionnaires in relation to employer productivity metrics, and to describe variation in economic estimates of productivity loss provided by the questionnaires in healthy workers. Methods 58 billing office workers completed surveys including health information and four productivity loss questionnaires. Employer productivity metrics and work hours were also obtained. Results Productivity loss questionnaires were weakly to moderately correlated with employer productivity metrics. Workers with more health complaints reported greater health-related productivity loss than healthier workers, but showed no loss on employer productivity metrics. Economic estimates of productivity loss showed wide variation among questionnaires, yet no loss of actual productivity. Conclusions Additional studies are needed comparing questionnaires with objective measures in larger samples and other industries, to improve measurement methods for health-related productivity loss. PMID:26849261

  7. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Guinea

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Van Bockstael, Mark; Diaby, Mamadou; Cissé, Kabinet; Diallo, Thierno Amadou; Sano, Mahmoud

    2012-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that export shipments of rough diamonds were free of conflict concerns. Outcomes of the meeting were formally supported later in December of 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. The goal of this study was to estimate the alluvial diamond resource endowment and the current production capacity of the alluvial diamond mining sector of Guinea. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within Guinea's diamondiferous regions, while the diamond-production capacity of these zones was estimated by inputting the number of artisanal miners, the number of days artisans work per year, and the average grade of the deposits into a formulaic expression. Guinea's resource potential was estimated to be approximately 40 million carats, while the production capacity was estimated to lie within a range of 480,000 to 720,000 carats per year. While preliminary results have been produced by integrating historical documents, five fieldwork campaigns, and remote sensing and GIS analysis, significant data gaps remain. The artisanal mining sector is dynamic and is affected by a variety of internal and external factors. Estimates of the number of artisans and deposit variables, such as grade, vary from site to site and from zone to zone. This report has been developed on the basis of the most detailed information available at this time. However, continued fieldwork and evaluation of artisanally mined deposits would increase the accuracy of the results.

  8. New Methodology for Natural Gas Production Estimates

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    A new methodology is implemented with the monthly natural gas production estimates from the EIA-914 survey this month. The estimates, to be released April 29, 2010, include revisions for all of 2009. The fundamental changes in the new process include the timeliness of the historical data used for estimation and the frequency of sample updates, both of which are improved.

  9. Site productivity - current estimates, change, and possible enhancements for the Northern Research Station

    Treesearch

    Scott A. Pugh

    2012-01-01

    Site productivity (SP) is the inherent capacity to grow crops of industrial wood. SP identifies the potential growth in cubic feet/acre/year and is based on the culmination of mean annual increment of fully stocked natural stands. Changes in SP were summarized for timberland and the associated effects on net growth and removal estimates were investigated using data...

  10. PRIMARY PRODUCTION ESTIMATES IN CHESAPEAKE BAY USING SEAWIFS

    EPA Science Inventory

    The temporal and spatial variability in primary production along the main stem of Chesapeake Bay was examined from 1997 through 2000. Primary production estimates were determined from the Vertically Generalized Production Model (VGPM) (Behrenfeld and Falkowski, 1997) using chloro...

  11. Volatile organic compounds in pesticide formulations: Methods to estimate ozone formation potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zeinali, Mazyar; McConnell, Laura L.; Hapeman, Cathleen J.; Nguyen, Anh; Schmidt, Walter F.; Howard, Cody J.

    2011-05-01

    The environmental fate and toxicity of active ingredients in pesticide formulations has been investigated for many decades, but relatively little research has been conducted on the fate of pesticide co-formulants or inerts. Some co-formulants are volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and can contribute to ground-level ozone pollution. Effective product assessment methods are required to reduce emissions of the most reactive VOCs. Six emulsifiable concentrate pesticide products were characterized for percent VOC by thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS). TGA estimates exceeded GC-MS by 10-50% in all but one product, indicating that for some products a fraction of active ingredient is released during TGA or that VOC contribution was underestimated by GC-MS. VOC profiles were examined using TGA-Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) evolved gas analysis and were compared to GC-MS results. The TGA-FTIR method worked best for products with the simplest and most volatile formulations, but could be developed into an effective product screening tool. An ozone formation potential ( OFP) for each product was calculated using the chemical composition from GC-MS and published maximum incremental reactivity ( MIR) values. OFP values ranged from 0.1 to 3.1 g ozone g -1 product. A 24-h VOC emission simulation was developed for each product assuming a constant emission rate calculated from an equation relating maximum flux rate to vapor pressure. Results indicate 100% VOC loss for some products within a few hours, while other products containing less volatile components will remain in the field for several days after application. An alternate method to calculate a product OFP was investigated utilizing the fraction of the total mass of each chemical emitted at the end of the 24-h simulation. The ideal assessment approach will include: 1) unambiguous chemical composition information; 2) flexible simulation models to estimate emissions under

  12. Methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants into recycling products - A case study from Austria.

    PubMed

    Knapp, Julika; Allesch, Astrid; Müller, Wolfgang; Bockreis, Anke

    2017-11-01

    Recycling of waste materials is desirable to reduce the consumption of limited primary resources, but also includes the risk of recycling unwanted, hazardous substances. In Austria, the legal framework demands secondary products must not present a higher risk than comparable products derived from primary resources. However, the act provides no definition on how to assess this risk potential. This paper describes the development of different quantitative and qualitative methods to estimate the transfer of contaminants in recycling processes. The quantitative methods comprise the comparison of concentrations of harmful substances in recycling products to corresponding primary products and to existing limit values. The developed evaluation matrix, which considers further aspects, allows for the assessment of the qualitative risk potential. The results show that, depending on the assessed waste fraction, particular contaminants can be critical. Their concentrations were higher than in comparable primary materials and did not comply with existing limit values. On the other hand, the results show that a long-term, well-established quality control system can assure compliance with the limit values. The results of the qualitative assessment obtained with the evaluation matrix support the results of the quantitative assessment. Therefore, the evaluation matrix can be suitable to quickly screen waste streams used for recycling to estimate their potential environmental and health risks. To prevent the transfer of contaminants into product cycles, improved data of relevant substances in secondary resources are necessary. In addition, regulations for material recycling are required to assure adequate quality control measures, including limit values. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. EU mitigation potential of harvested wood products.

    PubMed

    Pilli, Roberto; Fiorese, Giulia; Grassi, Giacomo

    2015-12-01

    The new rules for the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry sector under the Kyoto Protocol recognized the importance of Harvested Wood Products (HWP) in climate change mitigation. We used the Tier 2 method proposed in the 2013 IPCC KP Supplement to estimate emissions and removals from HWP from 1990 to 2030 in EU-28 countries with three future harvest scenarios (constant historical average, and +/-20% in 2030). For the historical period (2000-2012) our results are consistent with other studies, indicating a HWP sink equal on average to -44.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 (about 10% of the sink by forest pools). Assuming a constant historical harvest scenario and future distribution of the total harvest among each commodity, the HWP sink decreases to -22.9 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030. The increasing and decreasing harvest scenarios produced a HWP sink of -43.2 and -9.0 Mt CO 2 yr -1 in 2030, respectively. Other factors may play an important role on HWP sink, including: (i) the relative share of different wood products, and (ii) the combined effect of production, import and export on the domestic production of each commodity. Maintaining a constant historical harvest, the HWP sink will slowly tend to saturate, i.e. to approach zero in the long term. The current HWP sink will be maintained only by further increasing the current harvest; however, this will tend to reduce the current sink in forest biomass, at least in the short term. Overall, our results suggest that: (i) there is limited potential for additional HWP sink in the EU; (ii) the HWP mitigation potential should be analyzed in conjunction with other mitigation components (e.g. sink in forest biomass, energy and material substitution by wood).

  14. Regional and longitudinal estimation of product lifespan distribution: a case study for automobiles and a simplified estimation method.

    PubMed

    Oguchi, Masahiro; Fuse, Masaaki

    2015-02-03

    Product lifespan estimates are important information for understanding progress toward sustainable consumption and estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products. Publications reported actual lifespan of products; however, quantitative data are still limited for many countries and years. This study presents regional and longitudinal estimation of lifespan distribution of consumer durables, taking passenger cars as an example, and proposes a simplified method for estimating product lifespan distribution. We estimated lifespan distribution parameters for 17 countries based on the age profile of in-use cars. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the shape parameter of the lifespan distribution can be replaced by a constant value for all the countries and years. This enabled a simplified estimation that does not require detailed data on the age profile. Applying the simplified method, we estimated the trend in average lifespans of passenger cars from 2000 to 2009 for 20 countries. Average lifespan differed greatly between countries (9-23 years) and was increasing in many countries. This suggests consumer behavior differs greatly among countries and has changed over time, even in developed countries. The results suggest that inappropriate assumptions of average lifespan may cause significant inaccuracy in estimating the stocks and end-of-life flows of products.

  15. Estimating Potential Effects of Hypothetical Oil Spills on Polar Bears

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Durner, George M.; McDonald, T.L.; Johnson, W.R.

    2006-01-01

    Much is known about the transport and fate of oil spilled into the sea and its toxicity to exposed wildlife. Previously, however, there has been no way to quantify the probability that wildlife dispersed over the seascape would be exposed to spilled oil. Polar bears, the apical predator of the arctic, are widely dispersed near the continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean, an area also undergoing considerable hydrocarbon exploration and development. We used 15,308 satellite locations from 194 radiocollared polar bears to estimate the probability that polar bears could be exposed to hypothetical oil spills. We used a true 2 dimensional Gausian kernel density estimator, to estimate the number of bears likely to occur in each 1.00 km2 cell of a grid superimposed over near shore areas surrounding 2 oil production facilities: the existing Northstar oil production facility, and the proposed offshore site for the Liberty production facility. We estimated the standard errors of bear numbers per cell with bootstrapping. Simulated oil spill footprints for September and October, the times during which we hypothesized effects of an oil-spill would be worst, were estimated using real wind and current data collected between 1980 and 1996. We used ARC/Info software to calculate overlap (numbers of bears oiled) between simulated oil-spill footprints and polar bear grid-cell values. Numbers of bears potentially oiled by a hypothetical 5912 barrel spill (the largest spill thought probable from a pipeline breach) ranged from 0 to 27 polar bears for September open water conditions, and from 0 to 74 polar bears in October mixed ice conditions. Median numbers oiled by the 5912 barrel hypothetical spill from the Liberty simulation in September and October were 1 and 3 bears, equivalent values for the Northstar simulation were 3 and 11 bears. In October, 75% of trajectories from the 5912 barrel simulated spill at Liberty oiled 9 or fewer bears while 75% of the trajectories affected 20 or

  16. An Estimation of the Potential Utilization in Iranian Pharmaceutical Industry Involved in the Stock Exchange, 2008-2012.

    PubMed

    Annabi, Majid; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Mohammadi, Timor; Marashi Shoshtari, Seyed Nasrolah; Abedin Dorkoosh, Farid; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Heydari, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the potential of production and the capacity used in the pharmaceutical industry. Capacity use is the actual production rate to the potential output, which reflects the gap between actual production and production capacity . Through econometric methods, translog cost function in the short run along with functions of share cost of production factors is estimated through seemingly unrelated repeated regression (SURE) as a multivariate regression analysis provided by zeller. During the study the capacity used is decreasing. The capacity used, which calculated by weighted average, also decreased and the amount during the study period is much less than the simple average of the industry. Average capacity utilization in the industry over five years of study is equal to 57% while the average capacity used calculated by the weighted of industry average is 37%. To enhance the economic potential requires a proper use of resources, creation of favorable economic structure and productivity of the industry. Due to the large amount of unused capacity in the pharmaceutical industry there is no need to invest anymore unless in new grounds and it is obvious that more investment will change using capacity.

  17. An Estimation of the Potential Utilization in Iranian Pharmaceutical Industry Involved in the Stock Exchange, 2008-2012

    PubMed Central

    Annabi, Majid; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas; Mohammadi, Timor; Marashi Shoshtari, Seyed Nasrolah; Abedin Dorkoosh, Farid; Pourreza, Abolghasem; Heydari, Hassan

    2017-01-01

    The aim of this study was to measure the potential of production and the capacity used in the pharmaceutical industry. Capacity use is the actual production rate to the potential output, which reflects the gap between actual production and production capacity. Through econometric methods, translog cost function in the short run along with functions of share cost of production factors is estimated through seemingly unrelated repeated regression (SURE) as a multivariate regression analysis provided by zeller. During the study the capacity used is decreasing. The capacity used, which calculated by weighted average, also decreased and the amount during the study period is much less than the simple average of the industry. Average capacity utilization in the industry over five years of study is equal to 57% while the average capacity used calculated by the weighted of industry average is 37%. To enhance the economic potential requires a proper use of resources, creation of favorable economic structure and productivity of the industry. Due to the large amount of unused capacity in the pharmaceutical industry there is no need to invest anymore unless in new grounds and it is obvious that more investment will change using capacity. PMID:29552074

  18. Potential mercury emissions from fluorescent lamps production and obsolescence in mainland China.

    PubMed

    Tan, Quanyin; Li, Jinhui

    2016-01-01

    The use of fluorescent lamps has expanded rapidly all over the world in recent years, because of their energy-saving capability. Consequently, however, mercury emissions from production, breakage, and discard of the lamps are drawing increasing concern from the public. This article focuses on evaluating the amount of mercury used for fluorescent lamp production, as well as the potential mercury emissions during production and breakage, in mainland China. It is expected to provide a comprehensive understanding about the risks present in the mercury from fluorescent lamps, and to know about the impacts of the policies on fluorescent lamps after their implementation. It is estimated that, in 2020, mercury consumption will be about 11.30-15.69 tonnes, a significant reduction of 34.9%-37.4% from that used in 2013, owing to improvement in mercury dosing dosage technology and tighter limitations on mercury content in fluorescent lamps. With these improvements, the amount of mercury remaining in fluorescent lamps and released during production is estimated to be 10.71-14.86 and 0.59-0.83 tonnes, respectively; the mercury released from waste fluorescent lamps is estimated to be about 5.37-7.59 tonnes. Also, a significant reduction to the mercury emission can be expected when a collection and treatment system is well established and conducted in the future. © The Author(s) 2015.

  19. Identification of potentially hazardous human gene products in GMO risk assessment.

    PubMed

    Bergmans, Hans; Logie, Colin; Van Maanen, Kees; Hermsen, Harm; Meredyth, Michelle; Van Der Vlugt, Cécile

    2008-01-01

    Genetically modified organisms (GMOs), e.g. viral vectors, could threaten the environment if by their release they spread hazardous gene products. Even in contained use, to prevent adverse consequences, viral vectors carrying genes from mammals or humans should be especially scrutinized as to whether gene products that they synthesize could be hazardous in their new context. Examples of such potentially hazardous gene products (PHGPs) are: protein toxins, products of dominant alleles that have a role in hereditary diseases, gene products and sequences involved in genome rearrangements, gene products involved in immunomodulation or with an endocrine function, gene products involved in apoptosis, activated proto-oncogenes. For contained use of a GMO that carries a construct encoding a PHGP, the precautionary principle dictates that safety measures should be applied on a "worst case" basis, until the risks of the specific case have been assessed. The potential hazard of cloned genes can be estimated before empirical data on the actual GMO become available. Preliminary data may be used to focus hazard identification and risk assessment. Both predictive and empirical data may also help to identify what further information is needed to assess the risk of the GMO. A two-step approach, whereby a PHGP is evaluated for its conceptual dangers, then checked by data bank searches, is delineated here.

  20. Assessing the transferability of ecosystem service production estimates and functions

    EPA Science Inventory

    Estimates of ecosystem service (ES) production, and their responses to stressors or policy actions, may be obtained by direct measurement, other empirical studies, or modeling. Direct measurement is costly and often impractical, and thus many studies transfer ES production estim...

  1. Antimatter Production at a Potential Boundary

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    LaPointe, Michael R.; Reddy, Dhanireddy (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    Current antiproton production techniques rely on high-energy collisions between beam particles and target nuclei to produce particle and antiparticle pairs, but inherently low production and capture efficiencies render these techniques impractical for the cost-effective production of antimatter for space propulsion and other commercial applications. Based on Dirac's theory of the vacuum field, a new antimatter production concept is proposed in which particle-antiparticle pairs are created at the boundary of a steep potential step formed by the suppression of the local vacuum fields. Current antimatter production techniques are reviewed, followed by a description of Dirac's relativistic quantum theory of the vacuum state and corresponding solutions for particle tunneling and reflection from a potential barrier. The use of the Casimir effect to suppress local vacuum fields is presented as a possible technique for generating the sharp potential gradients required for particle-antiparticle pair creation.

  2. Yield estimation of corn with multispectral data and the potential of using imaging spectrometers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bach, Heike

    1997-05-01

    In the frame of the special yield estimation, a regular procedure conducted for the European Union to more accurately estimate agricultural yield, a project was conducted for the state minister for Rural Environment, Food and Forestry of Baden-Wuerttemberg, Germany) to test remote sensing data with advanced yield formation models for accuracy and timelines of yield estimation of corn. The methodology employed uses field-based plant parameter estimation from atmospherically corrected multitemporal/multispectral LANDSAT-TM data. An agrometeorological plant-production-model is used for yield prediction. Based solely on 4 LANDSAT-derived estimates and daily meteorological data the grain yield of corn stands was determined for 1995. The modeled yield was compared with results independently gathered within the special yield estimation for 23 test fields in the Upper Rhine Valley. The agrement between LANDSAT-based estimates and Special Yield Estimation shows a relative error of 2.3 percent. The comparison of the results for single fields shows, that six weeks before harvest the grain yield of single corn fields was estimated with a mean relative accuracy of 13 percent using satellite information. The presented methodology can be transferred to other crops and geographical regions. For future applications hyperspectral sensors show great potential to further enhance the results or yield prediction with remote sensing.

  3. Economic productivity by age and sex: 2007 estimates for the United States.

    PubMed

    Grosse, Scott D; Krueger, Kurt V; Mvundura, Mercy

    2009-07-01

    Human capital estimates of labor productivity are often used to estimate the economic impact of diseases and injuries that cause incapacitation or death. Estimates of average hourly, annual, and lifetime economic productivity, both market and household, were calculated in 2007 US dollars for 5-year age groups for men, women, and both sexes in the United States. Data from the American Time Use Survey were used to estimate hours of paid work and household services and hourly and annual earnings and household productivity. Present values of discounted lifetime earnings were calculated for each age group using the 2004 US life tables and a discount rate of 3% per year and assuming future productivity growth of 1% per year. The estimates of hours and productivity were calculated using the time diaries of 72,922 persons included in the American Time Use Survey for the years 2003 to 2007. The present value of lifetime productivity is approximately $1.2 million in 2007 dollars for children under 5 years of age. For adults in their 20s and 30s, it is approximately $1.6 million and then it declines with increasing age. Productivity estimates are higher for males than for females, more for market productivity than for total productivity. Changes in hours of paid employment and household services can affect economic productivity by age and sex. This is the first publication to include estimates of household services based on contemporary time use data for the US population.

  4. Estimating climate change effects on net primary production of rangelands in the United States

    Treesearch

    Matthew C. Reeves; Adam L. Moreno; Karen E. Bagne; Steven W. Running

    2014-01-01

    The potential effects of climate change on net primary productivity (NPP) of U.S. rangelands were evaluated using estimated climate regimes from the A1B, A2 and B2 global change scenarios imposed on the biogeochemical cycling model, Biome-BGC from 2001 to 2100. Temperature, precipitation, vapor pressure deficit, day length, solar radiation, CO2 enrichment and nitrogen...

  5. Potential Applications of Gosat Based Carbon Budget Products to Refine Terrestrial Ecosystem Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kondo, M.; Ichii, K.

    2011-12-01

    Estimation of carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystem associates with difficulties due to complex entanglement of physical and biological processes: thus, the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) estimated from simulation often differs among process-based terrestrial ecosystem models. In addition to complexity of the system, validation can only be conducted in a point scale since reliable observation is only available from ground observations. With a lack of large spatial data, extension of model simulation to a global scale results in significant uncertainty in the future carbon balance and climate change. Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT), launched by the Japanese space agency (JAXA) in January, 2009, is the 1st operational satellite promised to deliver the net land-atmosphere carbon budget to the terrestrial biosphere research community. Using that information, the model reproducibility of carbon budget is expected to improve: hence, gives a better estimation of the future climate change. This initial analysis is to seek and evaluate the potential applications of GOSAT observation toward the sophistication of terrestrial ecosystem model. The present study was conducted in two processes: site-based analysis using eddy covariance observation data to assess the potential use of terrestrial carbon fluxes (GPP, RE, and NEP) to refine the model, and extension of the point scale analysis to spatial using Carbon Tracker product as a prototype of GOSAT product. In the first phase of the experiment, it was verified that an optimization routine adapted to a terrestrial model, Biome-BGC, yielded the improved result with respect to eddy covariance observation data from AsiaFlux Network. Spatial data sets used in the second phase were consists of GPP from empirical algorithm (e.g. support vector machine), NEP from Carbon Tracker, and RE from the combination of these. These spatial carbon flux estimations was used to refine the model applying the exactly same

  6. Bioenergy potential of the United States constrained by satellite observations of existing productivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Reed, Sasha C.; Smith, William K.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Miller, Norman L.; Running, Steven W.

    2012-01-01

    Background/Question/Methods Currently, the United States (U.S.) supplies roughly half the world’s biofuel (secondary bioenergy), with the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA) stipulating an additional three-fold increase in annual production by 2022. Implicit in such energy targets is an associated increase in annual biomass demand (primary bioenergy) from roughly 2.9 to 7.4 exajoules (EJ; 1018 Joules). Yet, many of the factors used to estimate future bioenergy potential are relatively unresolved, bringing into question the practicality of the EISA’s ambitious bioenergy targets. Here, our objective was to constrain estimates of primary bioenergy potential (PBP) for the conterminous U.S. using satellite-derived net primary productivity (NPP) data (measured for every 1 km2 of the 7.2 million km2 of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S) as the most geographically explicit measure of terrestrial growth capacity. Results/Conclusions We show that the annual primary bioenergy potential (PBP) of the conterminous U.S. realistically ranges from approximately 5.9 (± 1.4) to 22.2 (± 4.4) EJ, depending on land use. The low end of this range represents current harvest residuals, an attractive potential energy source since no additional harvest land is required. In contrast, the high end represents an annual harvest over an additional 5.4 million km2 or 75% of vegetated land in the conterminous U.S. While we identify EISA energy targets as achievable, our results indicate that meeting such targets using current technology would require either an 80% displacement of current croplands or the conversion of 60% of total rangelands. Our results differ from previous evaluations in that we use high resolution, satellite-derived NPP as an upper-envelope constraint on bioenergy potential, which removes the need for extrapolation of plot-level observed yields over large spatial areas. Establishing realistically constrained estimates of bioenergy potential seems a

  7. Estimation of potential biomass resource and biogas production from aquatic plants in Argentina

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Fitzsimons, R.E.; Laurino, C.N.; Vallejos, R.H.

    1982-01-01

    The Argentine government's Agua y Energia Electrica is planning to construct a hydroelectric power-generation facility on the middle Parana River, which is already heavily infested with aquatic weeds such as water hyacinth. These species will probably proliferate in the lakes that will be formed by the power project and perhaps seriously interfere with the facility. As a solution to this problem, Argentine biochemists propose mechanical harvesting and anaerobic fermentation of the aquatic plants to produce biogas and fertilizer. According to an evaluation of this potential resource, gross methane production could reach 37-153 billion CF (1.0-4.1 billion m/sup 3/)/yr, and themore » digested residue could provide 60,500-244,000 tons (54,900-221,400 metric tons)/yr of nitrogen, which represents 2-8 times Argentina's current nitrogen fertilizer demand.« less

  8. Potentials of an integrated biomass utilization system: Estimation of carbon flow and energy consumption

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Ryosuke; Nishimura, Motoki; Yuan, Lee Chang; Kamahara, Hirotsugu; Atsuta, Yoichi; Daimon, Hiroyuki

    2017-10-01

    Utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion has been promoted for decades. However, it is still relatively uncommon especially in Japan. As an approach to promote the utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion, an integrated system that combines anaerobic digestion with greenhouse, composting and seaweed cultivation was proposed. Based on the concept of the integrated system, not only sewage sludge can be treated using anaerobic digestion that creates green energy, but also the by-products such as CO2 and heat produced during the process can be utilized for crops production. In this study, the potentials of such integrated system were discussed through the estimation of possible commercialized scale as well as comparison of energy consumption with conventional approach for sewage sludge treatment, which is the incineration. The estimation of possible commercialized scale was calculated based on the carbon flow of the system. Results showed that 25% of the current total electricity of the wastewater treatment plant can be covered by the energy produced using anaerobic digestion of sewage sludge. It was estimated that the total energy consumption of the integrated system was actually 14% lower when compared to incineration approach. In addition to the large amount of crops that can be produced, all in all this study aimed to be the showcase of the potentials of sewage sludge as a biomass by implementing the proposed integrated system. The extra values of producing crops through the utilization of CO2 and heat can serve as a stimulus to the public, which would surely lead to higher interest to implement the utilization of sewage sludge using anaerobic digestion.

  9. An integrated assessment of the potential of agricultural and forestry residues for energy production in China

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gao, Ji; Zhang, Aiping; Lam, Shu Kee

    Biomass has been widely recognized as an important energy source with high potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing environmental pollution. In this study, we employ the Global Change Assessment Model to estimate the potential of agricultural and forestry residue biomass for energy production in China. Potential availability of residue biomass as an energy source was analyzed for the 21st century under different climate policy scenarios. Currently, the amount of total annual residue biomass, averaged over 2003-2007, is around 15519PJ in China, consisting of 10818PJ from agriculture residues (70%) and 4701PJ forestry residues (30%). We estimate that 12693PJ ofmore » the total biomass is available for energy production, with 66% derived from agricultural residue and 34% from forestry residue. Most of the available residue is from south central China (3347PJ), east China (2862PJ) and south-west China (2229PJ), which combined exceeds 66% of the total national biomass. Under the reference scenario without carbon tax, the potential availability of residue biomass for energy production is projected to be 3380PJ by 2050 and 4108PJ by 2095, respectively. When carbon tax is imposed, biomass availability increases substantially. For the CCS 450ppm scenario, availability of biomass increases to 9002PJ (2050) and 11524PJ (2095), respectively. For the 450ppm scenario without CCS, 9183 (2050) and 11150PJ (2095) residue biomass, respectively, is projected to be available. Moreover, the implementation of CCS will have a little impact on the supply of residue biomass after 2035. Our results suggest that residue biomass has the potential to be an important component in China's sustainable energy production portfolio. As a low carbon emission energy source, climate change policies that involve carbon tariff and CCS technology promote the use of residue biomass for energy production in a low carbon-constrained world.« less

  10. Using the SPEI to Estimate Food Production in East Africa

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Husak, G. J.; Hobbins, M.; Verdin, J. P.; Peterson, P.; Funk, C. C.

    2015-12-01

    The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors critical environmental variables that impact food production in developing countries. Due to a sparse network of observations in the developing world, many of these variables are estimated using remotely sensed data. As scientists develop new techniques to leverage available observations and remotely sensed information there are opportunities to create products that identify the environmental conditions that stress agriculture and reduce food production. FEWS NET pioneered the development of the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with stations (CHIRPS) dataset, to estimate precipitation and monitor growing conditions throughout the world. These data are used to drive land surface models, hydrologic models and basic crop models among others. A new dataset estimating the reference evapotranspiration (ET0) has been developed using inputs from the ERA-Interim GCM. This ET0 dataset stretches back to 1981, allowing for a long-term record, stretching many seasons and drought events. Combining the CHIRPS data to estimate water availability and the ET0 data to estimate evaporative demand, one can estimate the approximate water gap (surplus or deficit) over a specific time period. Normalizing this difference creates the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which presents these gaps in comparison to the historical record for a specific location and accumulation period. In this study we evaluate the SPEI as a tool to estimate crop yields for different regions of Kenya. Identifying the critical time of analysis for the SPEI is the first step in building a relationship between the water gap and food production. Once this critical period is identified, we look at the predictability of food production using the SPEI, and assess the utility of it for monitoring food security, with the goal of incorporating the SPEI in the standard monitoring suite of FEWS NET tools.

  11. [Review of estimation on oceanic primary productivity by using remote sensing methods.

    PubMed

    Xu, Hong Yun; Zhou, Wei Feng; Ji, Shi Jian

    2016-09-01

    Accuracy estimation of oceanic primary productivity is of great significance in the assessment and management of fisheries resources, marine ecology systems, global change and other fields. The traditional measurement and estimation of oceanic primary productivity has to rely on in situ sample data by vessels. Satellite remote sensing has advantages of providing dynamic and eco-environmental parameters of ocean surface at large scale in real time. Thus, satellite remote sensing has increasingly become an important means for oceanic primary productivity estimation on large spatio-temporal scale. Combining with the development of ocean color sensors, the models to estimate the oceanic primary productivity by satellite remote sensing have been developed that could be mainly summarized as chlorophyll-based, carbon-based and phytoplankton absorption-based approach. The flexibility and complexity of the three kinds of models were presented in the paper. On this basis, the current research status for global estimation of oceanic primary productivity was analyzed and evaluated. In view of these, four research fields needed to be strengthened in further stu-dy: 1) Global oceanic primary productivity estimation should be segmented and studied, 2) to dee-pen the research on absorption coefficient of phytoplankton, 3) to enhance the technology of ocea-nic remote sensing, 4) to improve the in situ measurement of primary productivity.

  12. Stability of individual loudness functions obtained by magnitude estimation and production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hellman, R. P.

    1981-01-01

    A correlational analysis of individual magnitude estimation and production exponents at the same frequency is performed, as is an analysis of individual exponents produced in different sessions by the same procedure across frequency (250, 1000, and 3000 Hz). Taken as a whole, the results show that individual exponent differences do not decrease by counterbalancing magnitude estimation with magnitude production and that individual exponent differences remain stable over time despite changes in stimulus frequency. Further results show that although individual magnitude estimation and production exponents do not necessarily obey the .6 power law, it is possible to predict the slope of an equal-sensation function averaged for a group of listeners from individual magnitude estimation and production data. On the assumption that individual listeners with sensorineural hearing also produce stable and reliable magnitude functions, it is also shown that the slope of the loudness-recruitment function measured by magnitude estimation and production can be predicted for individuals with bilateral losses of long duration. Results obtained in normal and pathological ears thus suggest that individual listeners can produce loudness judgements that reveal, although indirectly, the input-output characteristic of the auditory system.

  13. Convergence of potential net ecosystem production among contrasting C3 grasslands

    PubMed Central

    Peichl, Matthias; Sonnentag, Oliver; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Kiely, Gerard; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Pio, Casimiro; Migliavacca, Mirco; Jones, Michael B.; Saunders, Matthew

    2013-01-01

    Metabolic theory and body size dependent constraints on biomass production and decomposition suggest that differences in the intrinsic potential net ecosystem production (NEPPOT) should be small among contrasting C3 grasslands and therefore unable to explain the wide range in the annual apparent net ecosystem production (NEPAPP) reported by previous studies. We estimated NEPPOT for nine C3 grasslands under contrasting climate and management regimes using multi-year eddy covariance data. NEPPOT converged within a narrow range suggesting little difference in the net carbon dioxide uptake capacity across C3 grasslands. Our results indicate a unique feature of C3 grasslands compared to other terrestrial ecosystems and suggest a state of stability in NEPPOT due to tightly coupled production and respiration processes. Consequently, the annual NEPAPP of C3 grasslands is primarily a function of seasonal and short-term environmental and management constraints, and therefore especially susceptible to changes in future climate patterns and associated adaptation of management practices. PMID:23346985

  14. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion

    PubMed Central

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-01-01

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification. PMID:26558436

  15. Global biomass production potentials exceed expected future demand without the need for cropland expansion.

    PubMed

    Mauser, Wolfram; Klepper, Gernot; Zabel, Florian; Delzeit, Ruth; Hank, Tobias; Putzenlechner, Birgitta; Calzadilla, Alvaro

    2015-11-12

    Global biomass demand is expected to roughly double between 2005 and 2050. Current studies suggest that agricultural intensification through optimally managed crops on today's cropland alone is insufficient to satisfy future demand. In practice though, improving crop growth management through better technology and knowledge almost inevitably goes along with (1) improving farm management with increased cropping intensity and more annual harvests where feasible and (2) an economically more efficient spatial allocation of crops which maximizes farmers' profit. By explicitly considering these two factors we show that, without expansion of cropland, today's global biomass potentials substantially exceed previous estimates and even 2050s' demands. We attribute 39% increase in estimated global production potentials to increasing cropping intensities and 30% to the spatial reallocation of crops to their profit-maximizing locations. The additional potentials would make cropland expansion redundant. Their geographic distribution points at possible hotspots for future intensification.

  16. Estimate of fine root production including the impact of decomposed roots in a Bornean tropical rainforest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katayama, Ayumi; Khoon Koh, Lip; Kume, Tomonori; Makita, Naoki; Matsumoto, Kazuho; Ohashi, Mizue

    2016-04-01

    Considerable carbon is allocated belowground and used for respiration and production of roots. It is reported that approximately 40 % of GPP is allocated belowground in a Bornean tropical rainforest, which is much higher than those in Neotropical rainforests. This may be caused by high root production in this forest. Ingrowth core is a popular method for estimating fine root production, but recent study by Osawa et al. (2012) showed potential underestimates of this method because of the lack of consideration of the impact of decomposed roots. It is important to estimate fine root production with consideration for the decomposed roots, especially in tropics where decomposition rate is higher than other regions. Therefore, objective of this study is to estimate fine root production with consideration of decomposed roots using ingrowth cores and root litter-bag in the tropical rainforest. The study was conducted in Lambir Hills National Park in Borneo. Ingrowth cores and litter bags for fine roots were buried in March 2013. Eighteen ingrowth cores and 27 litter bags were collected in May, September 2013, March 2014 and March 2015, respectively. Fine root production was comparable to aboveground biomass increment and litterfall amount, and accounted only 10% of GPP in this study site, suggesting most of the carbon allocated to belowground might be used for other purposes. Fine root production was comparable to those in Neotropics. Decomposed roots accounted for 18% of fine root production. This result suggests that no consideration of decomposed fine roots may cause underestimate of fine root production.

  17. Estimation of the sustainable geothermal potential of Vienna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tissen, Carolin; Benz, Susanne A.; Keck, Christiane A.; Bayer, Peter; Blum, Philipp

    2017-04-01

    Regarding the limited availability of fossil fuels and the absolute necessity to reduce CO2 emissions in order to mitigate the worldwide climate change, renewable resources and new energy systems are required to provide sustainable energy for the future. Shallow geothermal energy holds a huge untapped potential especially for heating and hot water, which represent up to 50% of the global energy demand. Previous studies quantified the capacity of shallow geothermal energy for closed and open systems in cities such as Vienna, London (Westminster) and Ludwigsburg in Germany. In the present study, these approaches are combined and also include the anthropogenic heat input by the urban heat island (UHI) effect. The objective of the present study is therefore to estimate the sustainable geothermal potential of Vienna. Furthermore, the amount of energy demand for heating and hot water that can be supplied by open and closed geothermal systems will be determined. The UHI effect in Vienna is reflected in higher ground water temperatures within the city centre (14 ˚ C to 18 ˚ C) in comparison to lower ones in rural areas (10 ˚ C to 13 ˚ C). A preliminary estimation of the anthropogenic heat flow into the ground water caused by elevated basement temperatures and land surface temperatures is 3,5 × 108 kWh/a. This additional heat flow leads to a total geothermal potential which is 2.5 times larger than the estimated annual energy demand for heating and hot water in Vienna.

  18. Estimating methane gas production in peat soils of the Florida Everglades using hydrogeophysical methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, William; Comas, Xavier

    2016-04-01

    The spatial and temporal variability in production and release of greenhouse gases (such as methane) in peat soils remains uncertain, particularly for low-latitude peatlands like the Everglades. Ground penetrating radar (GPR) is a hydrogeophysical tool that has been successfully used in the last decade to noninvasively investigate carbon dynamics in peat soils; however, application in subtropical systems is almost non-existent. This study is based on four field sites in the Florida Everglades, where changes in gas content within the soil are monitored using time-lapse GPR measurements and gas releases are monitored using gas traps. A weekly methane gas production rate is estimated using a mass balance approach, considering gas content estimated from GPR, gas release from gas traps and incorporating rates of diffusion, and methanotrophic consumption from previous studies. Resulting production rates range between 0.02 and 0.47 g CH4 m-2 d-1, falling within the range reported in literature. This study shows the potential of combining GPR with gas traps to monitor gas dynamics in peat soils of the Everglades and estimate methane gas production. We also show the enhanced ability of certain peat soils to store gas when compared to others, suggesting that physical properties control biogenic gas storage in the Everglades peat soils. Better understanding biogenic methane gas dynamics in peat soils has implications regarding the role of wetlands in the global carbon cycle, particularly under a climate change scenario.

  19. Quantitative Estimation of Risks for Production Unit Based on OSHMS and Process Resilience

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nyambayar, D.; Koshijima, I.; Eguchi, H.

    2017-06-01

    Three principal elements in the production field of chemical/petrochemical industry are (i) Production Units, (ii) Production Plant Personnel and (iii) Production Support System (computer system introduced for improving productivity). Each principal element has production process resilience, i.e. a capability to restrain disruptive signals occurred in and out of the production field. In each principal element, risk assessment is indispensable for the production field. In a production facility, the occupational safety and health management system (Hereafter, referred to as OSHMS) has been introduced to reduce a risk of accidents and troubles that may occur during production. In OSHMS, a risk assessment is specified to reduce a potential risk in the production facility such as a factory, and PDCA activities are required for a continual improvement of safety production environments. However, there is no clear statement to adopt the OSHMS standard into the production field. This study introduces a metric to estimate the resilience of the production field by using the resilience generated by the production plant personnel and the result of the risk assessment in the production field. A method for evaluating how OSHMS functions are systematically installed in the production field is also discussed based on the resilience of the three principal elements.

  20. A Two-Stage Method to Determine Optimal Product Sampling considering Dynamic Potential Market

    PubMed Central

    Hu, Zhineng; Lu, Wei; Han, Bing

    2015-01-01

    This paper develops an optimization model for the diffusion effects of free samples under dynamic changes in potential market based on the characteristics of independent product and presents a two-stage method to figure out the sampling level. The impact analysis of the key factors on the sampling level shows that the increase of the external coefficient or internal coefficient has a negative influence on the sampling level. And the changing rate of the potential market has no significant influence on the sampling level whereas the repeat purchase has a positive one. Using logistic analysis and regression analysis, the global sensitivity analysis gives a whole analysis of the interaction of all parameters, which provides a two-stage method to estimate the impact of the relevant parameters in the case of inaccuracy of the parameters and to be able to construct a 95% confidence interval for the predicted sampling level. Finally, the paper provides the operational steps to improve the accuracy of the parameter estimation and an innovational way to estimate the sampling level. PMID:25821847

  1. Deriving temporally continuous soil moisture estimations at fine resolution by downscaling remotely sensed product

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Yan; Ge, Yong; Wang, Jianghao; Heuvelink, Gerard B. M.

    2018-06-01

    Land surface soil moisture (SSM) has important roles in the energy balance of the land surface and in the water cycle. Downscaling of coarse-resolution SSM remote sensing products is an efficient way for producing fine-resolution data. However, the downscaling methods used most widely require full-coverage visible/infrared satellite data as ancillary information. These methods are restricted to cloud-free days, making them unsuitable for continuous monitoring. The purpose of this study is to overcome this limitation to obtain temporally continuous fine-resolution SSM estimations. The local spatial heterogeneities of SSM and multiscale ancillary variables were considered in the downscaling process both to solve the problem of the strong variability of SSM and to benefit from the fusion of ancillary information. The generation of continuous downscaled remote sensing data was achieved via two principal steps. For cloud-free days, a stepwise hybrid geostatistical downscaling approach, based on geographically weighted area-to-area regression kriging (GWATARK), was employed by combining multiscale ancillary variables with passive microwave remote sensing data. Then, the GWATARK-estimated SSM and China Soil Moisture Dataset from Microwave Data Assimilation SSM data were combined to estimate fine-resolution data for cloudy days. The developed methodology was validated by application to the 25-km resolution daily AMSR-E SSM product to produce continuous SSM estimations at 1-km resolution over the Tibetan Plateau. In comparison with ground-based observations, the downscaled estimations showed correlation (R ≥ 0.7) for both ascending and descending overpasses. The analysis indicated the high potential of the proposed approach for producing a temporally continuous SSM product at fine spatial resolution.

  2. Potential benefits of remote sensing: Theoretical framework and empirical estimate

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eisgruber, L. M.

    1972-01-01

    A theoretical framwork is outlined for estimating social returns from research and application of remote sensing. The approximate dollar magnitude is given of a particular application of remote sensing, namely estimates of corn production, soybeans, and wheat. Finally, some comments are made on the limitations of this procedure and on the implications of results.

  3. Estimating forest productivity with Thematic Mapper and biogeographical data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cook, Elizabeth A.; Iverson, Louis R.; Graham, Robin L.

    1989-01-01

    Spectral data from the Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) on three forest exosystems (the southern Illinois, the Great Smoky Mountains regions in Tennessee and North Carolina, and the central Adirondack Mountains in New York) were used in conjunction with ground-collected measures of forest productivity and such information as the area's slope, aspect, elevation, and soil and vegetation types, to develop models of regional forest productivity. It is shown that the models developed may be used to estimate the productivity of a region with a high degree of confidence, but that the reliability of single-pixel estimates is poor. The characteristics of a given ecosystem determine which spectral values are most closely related to forest productivity. Thus, mid-IR, NIR, and visible bands are most significant in Illinois and New York, while the thermal band is relatively more important in the Smokies.

  4. Central Appalachia: Production potential of low-sulfur coal

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Watkins, J.

    The vast preponderance of eastern US low sulfur and 1.2-lbs SO{sub 2}/MMBtu compliance coal comes from a relatively small area composed of 14 counties located in eastern Kentucky, southern West Virginia and western Virginia. These 14 counties accounted for 68% of all Central Appalachian coal production in 1989 as well as 85% of all compliance coal shipped to electric utilities from this region. A property-by-property analysis of total production potential in 10 of the 14 counties (Floyd, Knott, Letcher, Harlan, Martin and Pike in Kentucky and Boone, Kanawha, Logan and Mingo in West Virginia) resulted in the following estimates ofmore » active and yet to be developed properties: (1) total salable reserves for all sulfur levels were 5.9 billion tons and (2) 1.2-lbs. SO{sub 2}/MMBtu compliance'' reserves totaled 2.38 billion tons. This potential supply of compliance coal is adequate to meet the expanded utility demand expected under acid rain for the next 20 years. Beyond 2010, compliance supplies will begin to reach depletion levels in some areas of the study region. A review of the cost structure for all active mines was used to categorize the cost structure for developing potential supplies. FOB cash costs for all active mines in the ten counties ranged from $15 per ton to $35 per ton and the median mine cost was about $22 per ton. A total of 47 companies with the ability to produce and ship coal from owned or leased reserves are active in the ten-county region. Identified development and expansion projects controlled by active companies are capable of expanding the region's current production level by over 30 million tons per year over the next twenty years. Beyond this period the issue of reserve depletion for coal of all sulfur levels in the ten county region will become a pressing issue. 11 figs., 12 tabs.« less

  5. A new approach to Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portmann, R. W.; Daniel, J. S.; Yu, P.

    2017-12-01

    The Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) is given by the time integrated global ozone loss of an ozone depleting substance (ODS) relative to a reference ODS (usually CFC-11). The ODP is used by the Montreal Protocol (and subsequent amendments) to inform policy decisions on the production of ODSs. Since the early 1990s, ODPs have usually been estimated using an approximate formulism that utilizes the lifetime and the fractional release factor of the ODS. This has the advantage that it can utilize measured concentrations of the ODSs to estimate their fractional release factors. However, there is a strong correlation between stratospheric lifetimes and fractional release factors of ODSs and that this can introduce uncertainties into ODP calculations when the terms are estimated independently. Instead, we show that the ODP is proportional to the average global ozone loss per equivalent chlorine molecule released in the stratosphere by the ODS loss process (which we call the Γ factor) and, importantly, this ratio varies only over a relatively small range ( 0.3-1.5) for ODPs with stratospheric lifetimes of 20 to more than 1,000 years. The Γ factor varies smoothly with stratospheric lifetime for ODSs with loss processes dominated by photolysis and is larger for long-lived species, while stratospheric OH loss processes produce relatively small Γs that are nearly independent of stratospheric lifetime. The fractional release approach does not accurately capture these relationships. We propose a new formulation that takes advantage of this smooth variation by parameterizing the Γ factor using ozone changes computed using the chemical climate model CESM-WACCM and the NOCAR two-dimensional model. We show that while the absolute Γ's vary between WACCM and NOCAR models, much of the difference is removed for the Γ/ΓCFC-11 ratio that is used in the ODP formula. This parameterized method simplifies the computation of ODPs while providing enhanced accuracy compared to the

  6. Estimating the National Carbon Abatement Potential of City Policies: A Data-Driven Approach

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    O'Shaughnessy, Eric; Heeter, Jenny; Keyser, David

    strategies, could significantly augment the carbon abatement contributions of city actions toward national climate targets. The results suggest that cities may play a pivotal role in progress toward national climate targets. In addition to providing carbon and emissions estimates, this report estimates the national net economic impacts of policies for which cost and benefit data are available. Impact metrics include employment, worker earnings, and gross domestic product (GDP). For the policy areas studied, the economic analysis demonstrates that city carbon abatement may be achieved with only minimal and generally slightly positive economic impacts. Employment impacts range from 0.04% to 0.13% of U.S, employment during implementation and zero to 0.1% thereafter. GDP estimates show net impacts of 0.02% to 0.07% of GDP during implementation and impacts from -0.02% to zero thereafter. This report quantitatively demonstrates the material impact of a limited set of local policy areas on national carbon abatement potential. The magnitude of estimated carbon reductions from city policies, 3%-7% of national emissions by 2035, suggests an important role for city-led actions in reaching U.S. climate goals. Multi-level governance at the city, state, and national levels could augment the carbon abatement potential of city actions and make cities a key component of long-term U.S. climate strategies.« less

  7. A catalytic approach to estimate the redox potential of heme-peroxidases

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Ayala, Marcela; Roman, Rosa; Vazquez-Duhalt, Rafael

    2007-06-08

    The redox potential of heme-peroxidases varies according to a combination of structural components within the active site and its vicinities. For each peroxidase, this redox potential imposes a thermodynamic threshold to the range of oxidizable substrates. However, the instability of enzymatic intermediates during the catalytic cycle precludes the use of direct voltammetry to measure the redox potential of most peroxidases. Here we describe a novel approach to estimate the redox potential of peroxidases, which directly depends on the catalytic performance of the activated enzyme. Selected p-substituted phenols are used as substrates for the estimations. The results obtained with this catalyticmore » approach correlate well with the oxidative capacity predicted by the redox potential of the Fe(III)/Fe(II) couple.« less

  8. Estimation of average annual streamflows and power potentials for Alaska and Hawaii

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Verdin, Kristine L.

    2004-05-01

    This paper describes the work done to develop average annual streamflow estimates and power potential for the states of Alaska and Hawaii. The Elevation Derivatives for National Applications (EDNA) database was used, along with climatic datasets, to develop flow and power estimates for every stream reach in the EDNA database. Estimates of average annual streamflows were derived using state-specific regression equations, which were functions of average annual precipitation, precipitation intensity, drainage area, and other elevation-derived parameters. Power potential was calculated through the use of the average annual streamflow and the hydraulic head of each reach, which is calculated from themore » EDNA digital elevation model. In all, estimates of streamflow and power potential were calculated for over 170,000 stream segments in the Alaskan and Hawaiian datasets.« less

  9. Estimating and validating ground-based timber harvesting production through computer simulation

    Treesearch

    Jingxin Wang; Chris B. LeDoux

    2003-01-01

    Estimating ground-based timber harvesting systems production with an object oriented methodology was investigated. The estimation model developed generates stands of trees, simulates chain saw, drive-to-tree feller-buncher, swing-to-tree single-grip harvester felling, and grapple skidder and forwarder extraction activities, and analyzes costs and productivity. It also...

  10. Computer software to estimate timber harvesting system production, cost, and revenue

    Treesearch

    Dr. John E. Baumgras; Dr. Chris B. LeDoux

    1992-01-01

    Large variations in timber harvesting cost and revenue can result from the differences between harvesting systems, the variable attributes of harvesting sites and timber stands, or changing product markets. Consequently, system and site specific estimates of production rates and costs are required to improve estimates of harvesting revenue. This paper describes...

  11. Frontier production function estimates for steam electric generation: a comparative analysis

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Kopp, R.J.; Smith, V.K.

    1980-04-01

    The performance of three frontier steam electric generation estimators is compared in terms of the consideration given to new production technologies and their technical efficiency. The Cobb-Douglas, constant elasticity of substitution, and translog production functions are examined, using the Aigner-Chu linear programming, the sophisticated Aigner-Lovell-Schmidt stochastic frontier, and the direct method of adjusted ordinary least squares frontier estimators. The use of Cobb-Douglas specification is judged to have narrowed the perceived difference between competing estimators. The choice of frontier estimator is concluded to have a greater effect on the plant efficiency than functional form. 19 references. (DCK)

  12. A joint sparse representation-based method for double-trial evoked potentials estimation.

    PubMed

    Yu, Nannan; Liu, Haikuan; Wang, Xiaoyan; Lu, Hanbing

    2013-12-01

    In this paper, we present a novel approach to solving an evoked potentials estimating problem. Generally, the evoked potentials in two consecutive trials obtained by repeated identical stimuli of the nerves are extremely similar. In order to trace evoked potentials, we propose a joint sparse representation-based double-trial evoked potentials estimation method, taking full advantage of this similarity. The estimation process is performed in three stages: first, according to the similarity of evoked potentials and the randomness of a spontaneous electroencephalogram, the two consecutive observations of evoked potentials are considered as superpositions of the common component and the unique components; second, making use of their characteristics, the two sparse dictionaries are constructed; and finally, we apply the joint sparse representation method in order to extract the common component of double-trial observations, instead of the evoked potential in each trial. A series of experiments carried out on simulated and human test responses confirmed the superior performance of our method. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Evaluating MODIS satellite versus terrestrial data driven productivity estimates in Austria

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petritsch, R.; Boisvenue, C.; Pietsch, S. A.; Hasenauer, H.; Running, S. W.

    2009-04-01

    Sensors, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite, are developed for monitoring global and/or regional ecosystem fluxes like net primary production (NPP). Although these systems should allow us to assess carbon sequestration issues, forest management impacts, etc., relatively little is known about the consistency and accuracy in the resulting satellite driven estimates versus production estimates driven from ground data. In this study we compare the following NPP estimation methods: (i) NPP estimates as derived from MODIS and available on the internet; (ii) estimates resulting from the off-line version of the MODIS algorithm; (iii) estimates using regional meteorological data within the offline algorithm; (iv) NPP estimates from a species specific biogeochemical ecosystem model adopted for Alpine conditions; and (v) NPP estimates calculated from individual tree measurements. Single tree measurements were available from 624 forested sites across Austria but only the data from 165 sample plots included all the necessary information for performing the comparison on plot level. To ensure independence of satellite-driven and ground-based predictions, only latitude and longitude for each site were used to obtain MODIS estimates. Along with the comparison of the different methods, we discuss problems like the differing dates of field campaigns (<1999) and acquisition of satellite images (2000-2005) or incompatible productivity definitions within the methods and come up with a framework for combining terrestrial and satellite data based productivity estimates. On average MODIS estimates agreed well with the output of the models self-initialization (spin-up) and biomass increment calculated from tree measurements is not significantly different from model results; however, correlation between satellite-derived versus terrestrial estimates are relatively poor. Considering the different scales as they are 9km² from MODIS and

  14. Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Weir, Hannah K.; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S. Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

    2018-01-01

    Background Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008–2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed–expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer–related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. PMID:28003180

  15. Years of Life and Productivity Loss from Potentially Avoidable Colorectal Cancer Deaths in U.S. Counties with Lower Educational Attainment (2008-2012).

    PubMed

    Weir, Hannah K; Li, Chunyu; Henley, S Jane; Joseph, Djenaba

    2017-05-01

    Background: Educational attainment (EA) is inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk. Colorectal cancer screening can save lives if precancerous polyps or early cancers are found and successfully treated. This study aims to estimate the potential productivity loss (PPL) and associated avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths among screen-eligible adults residing in lower EA counties in the United States. Methods: Mortality and population data were used to examine colorectal cancer deaths (2008-2012) among adults aged 50 to 74 years in lower EA counties, and to estimate the expected number of deaths using the mortality experience from high EA counties. Excess deaths (observed-expected) were used to estimate potential years life lost, and the human capital method was used to estimate PPL in 2012 U.S. dollars. Results: County-level colorectal cancer death rates were inversely associated with county-level EA. Of the 100,857 colorectal cancer deaths in lower EA counties, we estimated that more than 21,000 (1 in 5) was potentially avoidable and resulted in nearly $2 billion annual productivity loss. Conclusions: County-level EA disparities contribute to a large number of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths. Increased prevention and improved screening potentially could decrease deaths and help reduce the associated economic burden in lower EA communities. Increased screening could further reduce deaths in all EA groups. Impact: These results estimate the large economic impact of potentially avoidable colorectal cancer-related deaths in economically disadvantaged communities, as measured by lower EA. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(5); 736-42. ©2016 AACR . ©2016 American Association for Cancer Research.

  16. Estimating fracture spacing from natural tracers in shale-gas production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, S. J.; McKenna, S. A.; Heath, J. E.; Gardner, P.

    2012-12-01

    Resource appraisal and long-term recovery potential of shale gas relies on the characteristics of the fracture networks created within the formation. Both well testing and analysis of micro-seismic data can provide information on fracture characteristics, but approaches that directly utilize observations of gas transport through the fractures are not well-developed. We examine transport of natural tracers and analyze the breakthrough curves (BTC's) of these tracers with a multi-rate mass transfer (MMT) model to elucidate fracture characteristics. The focus here is on numerical simulation studies to determine constraints on the ability to accurately estimate fracture network characteristics as a function of the diffusion coefficients of the natural tracers, the number and timing of observations, the flow rates from the well, and the noise in the observations. Traditional tracer testing approaches for dual-porosity systems analyze the BTC of an injected tracer to obtain fracture spacing considering a single spacing value. An alternative model is the MMT model where diffusive mass transfer occurs simultaneously over a range of matrix block sizes defined by a statistical distribution (e.g., log-normal, gamma, or power-law). The goal of the estimation is defining the parameters of the fracture spacing distribution. The MMT model has not yet been applied to analysis of natural in situ natural tracers. Natural tracers are omnipresent in the subsurface, potentially obviating the needed for introduced tracers, and could be used to improve upon fracture characteristics estimated from pressure transient and decline curve production analysis. Results of this study provide guidance for data collection and analysis of natural tracers in fractured shale formations. Parameter estimation on simulated BTC's will provide guidance on the necessary timing of BTC sampling in field experiments. The MMT model can result in non-unique or nonphysical parameter estimates. We address this

  17. Using simple environmental variables to estimate below-ground productivity in grasslands

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gill, R.A.; Kelly, R.H.; Parton, W.J.; Day, K.A.; Jackson, R.B.; Morgan, J.A.; Scurlock, J.M.O.; Tieszen, L.L.; Castle, J.V.; Ojima, D.S.; Zhang, X.S.

    2002-01-01

    In many temperate and annual grasslands, above-ground net primary productivity (NPP) can be estimated by measuring peak above-ground biomass. Estimates of below-ground net primary productivity and, consequently, total net primary productivity, are more difficult. We addressed one of the three main objectives of the Global Primary Productivity Data Initiative for grassland systems to develop simple models or algorithms to estimate missing components of total system NPP. Any estimate of below-ground NPP (BNPP) requires an accounting of total root biomass, the percentage of living biomass and annual turnover of live roots. We derived a relationship using above-ground peak biomass and mean annual temperature as predictors of below-ground biomass (r2 = 0.54; P = 0.01). The percentage of live material was 0.6, based on published values. We used three different functions to describe root turnover: constant, a direct function of above-ground biomass, or as a positive exponential relationship with mean annual temperature. We tested the various models against a large database of global grassland NPP and the constant turnover and direct function models were approximately equally descriptive (r2 = 0.31 and 0.37), while the exponential function had a stronger correlation with the measured values (r2 = 0.40) and had a better fit than the other two models at the productive end of the BNPP gradient. When applied to extensive data we assembled from two grassland sites with reliable estimates of total NPP, the direct function was most effective, especially at lower productivity sites. We provide some caveats for its use in systems that lie at the extremes of the grassland gradient and stress that there are large uncertainties associated with measured and modelled estimates of BNPP.

  18. Estimating the Economic Potential of Offshore Wind in the United States

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Beiter, P.; Musial, W.; Smith, A.

    The potential for cost reduction and market deployment for offshore wind varies considerably within the United States. This analysis estimates the future economic viability of offshore wind at more than 7,000 sites under a variety of electric sector and cost reduction scenarios. Identifying the economic potential of offshore wind at a high geospatial resolution can capture the significant variation in local offshore resource quality, costs, and revenue potential. In estimating economic potential, this article applies a method initially developed in Brown et al. (2015) to offshore wind and estimates the sensitivity of results under a variety of most likely electricmore » sector scenarios. For the purposes of this analysis, a theoretical framework is developed introducing a novel offshore resource classification system that is analogous to established resource classifications from the oil and gas sector. Analyzing economic potential within this framework can help establish a refined understanding across industries of the technology and site-specific risks and opportunities associated with future offshore wind development. The results of this analysis are intended to inform the development of the U.S. Department of Energy's offshore wind strategy.« less

  19. Potential for forest products in interior Alaska.

    Treesearch

    George R. Sampson; Willem W.S. van Hees; Theodore S. Setzer; Richard C. Smith

    1988-01-01

    Future opportunities for producing Alaska forest products were examined from the perspective of timber supply as reported in timber inventory reports and past studies of forest products industry potential. The best prospects for increasing industrial production of forest products in interior Alaska are for softwood lumber. Current softwood lumber production in the...

  20. Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott

    2010-01-01

    Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

  1. The global potential of local peri-urban food production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kriewald, Steffen; Garcia Cantu Ros, Anselmo; Sterzel, Till; Kropp, Jürgen P.

    2013-04-01

    Service (GlobCover), the global agricultural yield dataset from the Global Agro-ecological Zones (GAEZ) and census population data from the Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project, Version 1 (GRUMPv1) to estimate the potential of 2838 UBR worldwide. With regard to making use of local circumstances, the results of potential worldwide peri-urban agriculture emphasize the ongoing investigation of sustainable transitions of the socio-ecologic system. Identifying areas for increased food production while maintaining the natural resources and the urban needs will be a major task for cities in future.

  2. Estimations of expectedness and potential surprise in possibility theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prade, Henri; Yager, Ronald R.

    1992-01-01

    This note investigates how various ideas of 'expectedness' can be captured in the framework of possibility theory. Particularly, we are interested in trying to introduce estimates of the kind of lack of surprise expressed by people when saying 'I would not be surprised that...' before an event takes place, or by saying 'I knew it' after its realization. In possibility theory, a possibility distribution is supposed to model the relative levels of mutually exclusive alternatives in a set, or equivalently, the alternatives are assumed to be rank-ordered according to their level of possibility to take place. Four basic set-functions associated with a possibility distribution, including standard possibility and necessity measures, are discussed from the point of view of what they estimate when applied to potential events. Extensions of these estimates based on the notions of Q-projection or OWA operators are proposed when only significant parts of the possibility distribution are retained in the evaluation. The case of partially-known possibility distributions is also considered. Some potential applications are outlined.

  3. The greenhouse gas intensity and potential biofuel production capacity of maize stover harvest in the US Midwest

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jones, Curtis D.; Zhang, Xuesong; Reddy, Ashwan D.

    Agricultural residues are important sources of feedstock for a cellulosic biofuels industry that is being developed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve energy independence. While the US Midwest has been recognized as key to providing maize stover for meeting near-term cellulosic biofuel production goals, there is uncertainty that such feedstocks can produce biofuels that meet federal cellulosic standards. Here, we conducted extensive site-level calibration of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) terrestrial ecosystems model and applied the model at high spatial resolution across the US Midwest to improve estimates of the maximum production potential and greenhouse gas emissions expectedmore » from continuous maize residue-derived biofuels. A comparison of methodologies for calculating the soil carbon impacts of residue harvesting demonstrates the large impact of study duration, depth of soil considered, and inclusion of litter carbon in soil carbon change calculations on the estimated greenhouse gas intensity of maize stover-derived biofuels. Using the most representative methodology for assessing long-term residue harvesting impacts, we estimate that only 5.3 billion liters per year (bly) of ethanol, or 8.7% of the near-term US cellulosic biofuel demand, could be met under common no-till farming practices. However, appreciably more feedstock becomes available at modestly higher emissions levels, with potential for 89.0 bly of ethanol production meeting US advanced biofuel standards. Adjustments to management practices, such as adding cover crops to no-till management, will be required to produce sufficient quantities of residue meeting the greenhouse gas emission reduction standard for cellulosic biofuels. Considering the rapid increase in residue availability with modest relaxations in GHG reduction level, it is expected that management practices with modest benefits to soil carbon would allow considerable expansion of potential

  4. Years of potential life lost and productivity costs due to premature cancer-related mortality in Iran.

    PubMed

    Khorasani, Soheila; Rezaei, Satar; Rashidian, Hamideh; Daroudi, Rajabali

    2015-01-01

    Cancer is recently one of the major concerns of the public health both in the world and Iran. To inform priorities for cancer control, this study estimated years of potential life lost (YPLL) and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality in Iran in 2012. The number of cancer deaths by sex for all cancers and the ten leading causes of cancer deaths in Iran in 2012 were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. The life expectancy method and the human capital approach were used to estimate the YPLL and the value of productivity lost due to cancer-related premature mortality. There were 53,350 cancer-related deaths in Iran. We estimated that these cancer deaths resulted in 1,112,680 YPLL in total, 563,332 (50.6%) in males and 549,348 (49.4%) in females. The top 10 ranked cancers accounted for 75% of total death and 70% of total YPLL in the males and 69% for both death and YPLL in the females. The largest contributors for YPLL in the two genders were stomach and breast cancers, respectively. The total cost of lost productivity due to cancer-related premature mortality discounted at 3% rate in Iran, was US$ 1.93 billion. The most costly cancer for the males was stomach, while for the females it was breast cancer. The percentage of the total costs that were attributable to the top 10 cancers was 67% in the males and 71% in the females. The YPLL and productivity losses due to cancer-related premature mortality are substantial in Iran. Setting resource allocation priorities to cancers that occur in younger working-age individuals (such as brain and central nervous system) and/or cancers with high incidence and mortality rates (such as stomach and breast) could potentially decrease the productivity losses and the YPLL to a great extent in Iran.

  5. Use of wind data for estimating horizontal dilution potential of atmosphere.

    PubMed

    George, K V; Verma, P; Devotta, S

    2007-04-01

    In this study, a new methodology is suggested for estimating horizontal dilution potential of an area using wind data. The mean wind speed and wind direction variation are used as a measure of linear and angular spread of pollutants in the atmosphere. A formula is developed for estimating the potential of horizontal spread of pollutants in an area wherein only the wind speed and direction are used. The methodology is further applied to monitor wind data of one year. It is found that there is a very smooth variation of horizontal dilution potential over a year with limited dilution during post monsoon period and a high dilution in pre monsoon period.

  6. Estimating millet production for famine early warning: An application of crop simulation modelling using satellite and ground-based data in Burkina Faso

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thornton, P. K.; Bowen, W. T.; Ravelo, A.C.; Wilkens, P. W.; Farmer, G.; Brock, J.; Brink, J. E.

    1997-01-01

    Early warning of impending poor crop harvests in highly variable environments can allow policy makers the time they need to take appropriate action to ameliorate the effects of regional food shortages on vulnerable rural and urban populations. Crop production estimates for the current season can be obtained using crop simulation models and remotely sensed estimates of rainfall in real time, embedded in a geographic information system that allows simple analysis of simulation results. A prototype yield estimation system was developed for the thirty provinces of Burkina Faso. It is based on CERES-Millet, a crop simulation model of the growth and development of millet (Pennisetum spp.). The prototype was used to estimate millet production in contrasting seasons and to derive production anomaly estimates for the 1986 season. Provincial yields simulated halfway through the growing season were generally within 15% of their final (end-of-season) values. Although more work is required to produce an operational early warning system of reasonable credibility, the methodology has considerable potential for providing timely estimates of regional production of the major food crops in countries of sub-Saharan Africa.

  7. Estimation of potential impacts and natural resource damages of oil.

    PubMed

    McCay, Deborah French; Rowe, Jill Jennings; Whittier, Nicole; Sankaranarayanan, Sankar; Etkin, Dagmar Schmidt

    2004-02-27

    Methods were developed to estimate the potential impacts and natural resource damages resulting from oil spills using probabilistic modeling techniques. The oil fates model uses wind data, current data, and transport and weathering algorithms to calculate mass balance of fuel components in various environmental compartments (water surface, shoreline, water column, atmosphere, sediments, etc.), oil pathway over time (trajectory), surface distribution, shoreline oiling, and concentrations of the fuel components in water and sediments. Exposure of aquatic habitats and organisms to whole oil and toxic components is estimated in the biological model, followed by estimation of resulting acute mortality and ecological losses. Natural resource damages are based on estimated costs to restore equivalent resources and/or ecological services, using Habitat Equivalency Analysis (HEA) and Resource Equivalency Analysis (REA) methods. Oil spill modeling was performed for two spill sites in central San Francisco Bay, three spill sizes (20th, 50th, and 95th percentile volumes from tankers and larger freight vessels, based on an analysis of likely spill volumes given a spill has occurred) and four oil types (gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, and crude oil). The scenarios were run in stochastic mode to determine the frequency distribution, mean and standard deviation of fates, impacts, and damages. This work is significant as it demonstrates a statistically quantifiable method for estimating potential impacts and financial consequences that may be used in ecological risk assessment and cost-benefit analyses. The statistically-defined spill volumes and consequences provide an objective measure of the magnitude, range and variability of impacts to wildlife, aquatic organisms and shorelines for potential spills of four oil/fuel types, each having distinct environmental fates and effects.

  8. Potential for polyhydroxyalkanoate production on German or European municipal waste water treatment plants.

    PubMed

    Pittmann, T; Steinmetz, H

    2016-08-01

    Biopolymers, which are made of renewable raw materials and/or biodegradable residual materials present a possible alternative to common plastic. A potential analysis, based on experimental results in laboratory scale and detailed data from German waste water treatment plants, showed that the theoretically possible production of biopolymers in Germany amounts to more than 20% of the 2015 worldwide biopolymer production. In addition a profound estimation regarding all European Union member states showed that theoretically about 115% of the actual worldwide biopolymer production could be produced on European waste water treatment plants. With an upgraded biopolymer production and a theoretically reachable biopolymer proportion of around 60% of the cell dry weight a total of 1,794,656tPHAa or approximately 236% of today's biopolymer production could be produced on waste water treatment plants in the European Union, using primary sludge as raw material only. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Spatially distributed potential of landfill biogas production and electric power generation in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Lima, Rodolfo M; Santos, Afonso H M; Pereira, Camilo R S; Flauzino, Bárbara K; Pereira, Ana Cristina O S; Nogueira, Fábio J H; Valverde, José Alfredo R

    2018-04-01

    Due to the relatively low investment, operation costs, and technical requirements, landfills are still the most widespread alternative for final disposal of municipal solid waste (MSW). The biogas produced in the landfill, a renewable energy source, may be an important alternative for electric power generation. Brazil has a significant number of operating landfills, which receive the most part of the collected MSW. However, the country has only 17 landfill biogas power plants (LBPPs), resulting in about 122 MW of capacity. The United Kingdom, for instance, which is about 3 times smaller than Brazil in population, has 442 LBPPs (corresponding to 1051 MW of capacity). This fact highlights a considerable unexplored potential of landfill biogas in Brazil. It is also important to estimate this potential throughout the country to provide information for the government, researchers and companies in decision making, planning and formulation of public policies regarding this use of landfill biogas. Therefore, this study aims at estimating the spatially distributed potential of landfill biogas production that can be used for electric power generation in Brazil from 2015 to 2045, considering two scenarios: (i) operating sanitary landfills and (ii) hypothetical scenario of Territorial Arrangements (TA) comprising every Brazilian city, considering one landfill per TA. The total installed capacity estimated in 2018 for scenario 1 is about 523 MW and 87% of this number are related to LBPPs bigger than 1 MW. In this same year, the total installed capacity estimated for scenario 2 is 768 MW and 95% of this number are related to LBPPs bigger than 1 MW. These results emphasize that Brazil has a considerable unexplored potential of landfill biogas and the importance of municipal consortiums for MSW management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Wheat productivity estimates using LANDSAT data. [Michigan

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nalepka, R. F.; Colwell, J. (Principal Investigator); Rice, D. P.

    1977-01-01

    The author has identified the following significant results. An initial demonstration was made of the capability to make direct production forecasts for winter wheat using early season LANDSAT data. The approach offers the potential to make production forecasts quickly and simply, possibly avoiding some of the complexities of alternate procedures.

  11. Estimating productivity costs in health economic evaluations: a review of instruments and psychometric evidence.

    PubMed

    Tang, Kenneth

    2015-01-01

    Health economic evaluations (i.e. cost-effectiveness appraisal of an intervention) are useful aids for decision makers responsible for the allocation of scarce healthcare resources. The relevance of including health-related productivity costs (or benefits) in these evaluations is increasingly recognized and, as such, reliable and valid instruments to quantify productivity costs are needed. Over the years, a number of work productivity instruments have emerged in the literature, along with a growing body of psychometric evidence. The overall aim of this paper is to provide a review of available instruments with potential for estimating health-related productivity costs. This included the Health and Labor Questionnaire, Health and Work Performance Questionnaire, Health-Related Productivity Questionnaire Diary, Productivity and Disease Questionnaire, Quantity and Quality method, Stanford Presenteeism Scale 13, Valuation of Lost Productivity, Work and Health Interview, Work Limitations Questionnaire, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire, and Work Productivity Short Inventory. Critical discussions on the instruments' overall strengths and limitations, applicability for health economic evaluations, as well as the methodological quality of existing psychometric evidence were provided. Lastly, a set of reflective questions were proposed for users to consider when selecting an instrument for health economic evaluations.

  12. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children's potential exposures.

    PubMed

    Tulve, Nicolle S; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B; Vance, Marina E; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A; Marr, Linsey C

    2015-05-01

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children's potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child's potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child's potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children's potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

  13. Miscanthus biomass productivity within US croplands and its potential impact on soil organic carbon

    DOE PAGES

    Mishra, Umakant; Torn, Margaret S.; Fingerman, Kevin

    2012-08-10

    Interest in bioenergy crops is increasing due to their potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and dependence on fossil fuels. Here, we combined process-based and geospatial models to estimate the potential biomass productivity of miscanthus and its potential impact on soil carbon stocks in the croplands of the continental United States. The optimum (climatic potential) rainfed productivity for field-dried miscanthus biomass ranged from 1 to 23 Mg biomass ha -1 yr -1, with a spatial average of 13 Mg ha -1 yr -1 and a coefficient of variation of 30%. This variation resulted primarily from the spatial heterogeneity of effectivemore » rainfall, growing degree days, temperature, and solar radiation interception. Cultivating miscanthus would result in a soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration at the rate of 0.16–0.82 Mg C ha -1 yr -1 across the croplands due to cessation of tillage and increased biomass carbon input into the soil system. We identified about 81 million ha of cropland, primarily in the eastern United States, that could sustain economically viable (>10 Mg ha -1 yr -1) production without supplemental irrigation, of which about 14 million ha would reach optimal miscanthus growth. To meet targets of the US Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 using miscanthus as feedstock, 19 million ha of cropland would be needed (spatial average 13 Mg ha -1 yr -1) or about 16% less than is currently dedicated to US corn-based ethanol production.« less

  14. Anaerobic digestion of stillage fractions - estimation of the potential for energy recovery in bioethanol plants.

    PubMed

    Drosg, B; Fuchs, W; Meixner, K; Waltenberger, R; Kirchmayr, R; Braun, R; Bochmann, G

    2013-01-01

    Stillage processing can require more than one third of the thermal energy demand of a dry-grind bioethanol production plant. Therefore, for every stillage fraction occurring in stillage processing the potential of energy recovery by anaerobic digestion (AD) was estimated. In the case of whole stillage up to 128% of the thermal energy demand in the process can be provided, so even an energetically self-sufficient bioethanol production process is possible. For wet cake the recovery potential of thermal energy is 57%, for thin stillage 41%, for syrup 40% and for the evaporation condensate 2.5%. Specific issues for establishing AD of stillage fractions are evaluated in detail; these are high nitrogen concentrations, digestate treatment and trace element supply. If animal feed is co-produced at the bioethanol plant and digestate fractions are to be reused as process water, a sufficient quality is necessary. Most interesting stillage fractions as substrates for AD are whole stillage, thin stillage and the evaporation condensate. For these fractions process details are presented.

  15. Estimating crop net primary production using inventory data and MODIS-derived parameters

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bandaru, Varaprasad; West, Tristram O.; Ricciuto, Daniel M.

    2013-06-03

    National estimates of spatially-resolved cropland net primary production (NPP) are needed for diagnostic and prognostic modeling of carbon sources, sinks, and net carbon flux. Cropland NPP estimates that correspond with existing cropland cover maps are needed to drive biogeochemical models at the local scale and over national and continental extents. Existing satellite-based NPP products tend to underestimate NPP on croplands. A new Agricultural Inventory-based Light Use Efficiency (AgI-LUE) framework was developed to estimate individual crop biophysical parameters for use in estimating crop-specific NPP. The method is documented here and evaluated for corn and soybean crops in Iowa and Illinois inmore » years 2006 and 2007. The method includes a crop-specific enhanced vegetation index (EVI) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), shortwave radiation data estimated using Mountain Climate Simulator (MTCLIM) algorithm and crop-specific LUE per county. The combined aforementioned variables were used to generate spatially-resolved, crop-specific NPP that correspond to the Cropland Data Layer (CDL) land cover product. The modeling framework represented well the gradient of NPP across Iowa and Illinois, and also well represented the difference in NPP between years 2006 and 2007. Average corn and soybean NPP from AgI-LUE was 980 g C m-2 yr-1 and 420 g C m-2 yr-1, respectively. This was 2.4 and 1.1 times higher, respectively, for corn and soybean compared to the MOD17A3 NPP product. Estimated gross primary productivity (GPP) derived from AgI-LUE were in close agreement with eddy flux tower estimates. The combination of new inputs and improved datasets enabled the development of spatially explicit and reliable NPP estimates for individual crops over large regional extents.« less

  16. Estimating and Testing the Sources of Evoked Potentials in the Brain.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huizenga, Hilde M.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    1994-01-01

    The source of an event-related brain potential (ERP) is estimated from multivariate measures of ERP on the head under several mathematical and physical constraints on the parameters of the source model. Statistical aspects of estimation are discussed, and new tests are proposed. (SLD)

  17. Estimating Real-Time Zenith Tropospheric Delay over Africa Using IGS-RTS Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdelazeem, M.

    2017-12-01

    Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) is a crucial parameter for atmospheric modeling, severe weather monitoring and forecasting applications. Currently, the international global navigation satellite system (GNSS) real-time service (IGS-RTS) products are used extensively in real-time atmospheric modeling applications. The objective of this study is to develop a real time zenith tropospheric delay estimation model over Africa using the IGS-RTS products. The real-time ZTDs are estimated based on the real-time precise point positioning (PPP) solution. GNSS observations from a number of reference stations are processed over a period of 7 days. Then, the estimated real-time ZTDs are compared with the IGS tropospheric products counterparts. The findings indicate that the estimated real-time ZTDs have millimeter level accuracy in comparison with the IGS counterparts.

  18. A method for estimating fall adult sex ratios from production and survival data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wight, H.M.; Heath, R.G.; Geis, A.D.

    1965-01-01

    This paper presents a method of utilizing data relating to the production and survival of a bird population to estimate a basic fall adult sex ratio. This basic adult sex ratio is an average value derived from average production and survival rates. It is an estimate of the average sex ratio about which the fall adult ratios will fluctuate according to annual variations in production and survival. The basic fall adult sex ratio has been calculated as an asymptotic value which is the limit of an infinite series wherein average population characteristics are used as constants. Graphs are provided that allow the determination of basic sex ratios from production and survival data of a population. Where the respective asymptote has been determined, it may be possible to estimate various production and survival rates by use of variations of the formula for estimating the asymptote.

  19. Estimating post-marketing exposure to pharmaceutical products using ex-factory distribution data.

    PubMed

    Telfair, Tamara; Mohan, Aparna K; Shahani, Shalini; Klincewicz, Stephen; Atsma, Willem Jan; Thomas, Adrian; Fife, Daniel

    2006-10-01

    The pharmaceutical industry has an obligation to identify adverse reactions to drug products during all phases of drug development, including the post-marketing period. Estimates of population exposure to pharmaceutical products are important to the post-marketing surveillance of drugs, and provide a context for assessing the various risks and benefits, including drug safety, associated with drug treatment. This paper describes a systematic approach to estimating post-marketing drug exposure using ex-factory shipment data to estimate the quantity of medication available, and dosage information (stratified by indication or other factors as appropriate) to convert the quantity of medication to person time of exposure. Unlike the non-standardized methods often used to estimate exposure, this approach provides estimates whose calculations are explicit, documented, and consistent across products and over time. The methods can readily be carried out by an individual or small group specializing in this function, and lend themselves to automation. The present estimation approach is practical and relatively uncomplicated to implement. We believe it is a useful innovation. Copyright 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  20. Estimation of potassium and magnesium flows in animal production in Dianchi Lake basin, China.

    PubMed

    Amachika, Yuta; Anzai, Hiroki; Wang, Lin; Oishi, Kazato; Irbis, Chagan; Li, Kunzhi; Kumagai, Hajime; Inamura, Tatsuya; Hirooka, Hiroyuki

    2016-07-01

    The objectives of this study were to estimate and evaluate potassium (K) and magnesium (Mg) budgets and flows of animal production in the basin of Dianchi Lake, China. Feed sampling and farmer interviews were conducted in field surveys. The supplies of K and Mg from local and external feeds and the retention, production and excretion of animals were calculated individually for dairy cows, fattening pigs, breeding sows, and broilers and laying hens. The K and Mg flows on a regional level were estimated using the individual budgets. At the individual level, in dairy cattle, the K and Mg supplied from local feeds accounted for large parts of the total nutrient intakes, whereas in the other animal categories most of the K and Mg in the feeds depended on external resources. Our findings also suggested that excessive Mg intake resulted in high Mg excretion and low use efficiency in dairy cattle and fattening pigs. At the regional level, the K and Mg amounts of manure produced and applied in the area (K: 339 and Mg: 143 t/year) exceeded those used as local feeds. Our results imply the animal production potentially increased the K and Mg loads in the regional agriculture system. © 2015 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  1. Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

    PubMed

    Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

    2014-01-01

    In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

  2. Use of a BOD oxygen probe for estimating primary productivity

    Treesearch

    Raymond L. Czaplewski; Michael Parker

    1973-01-01

    The accuracy of a BOD oxygen probe for field measurements of primary production by the light and dark bottle oxygen technique is analyzed. A figure is presented with which to estimate the number of replicate bottles needed to obtain a given accuracy in estimating photosynthetic rates.

  3. Estimation of Potential Savings Through Therapeutic Substitution.

    PubMed

    Johansen, Michael E; Richardson, Caroline

    2016-06-01

    Therapeutic substitution offers potential to decrease pharmaceutical expenditures and potentially improve the efficiency of the health care system. To estimate potential savings through therapeutic substitution in terms of both overall and out-of-pocket expenditures of branded drugs when a generic in the same class with the same indication was available. Repeated cross-sectional study using the 107 132 individuals included in the nationally representative Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (2010-2012) along with their reported prescribed medicine use. The Orange Book, company financial statements, US Food and Drug Administration records, and published research were used for adjunctive information. Estimated excess expenditure due to branded drug overuse when a lower-cost generic in the same class with the same indication was available. The study included 107 132 individuals between 2010 and 2012, of whom 62.1% (95% CI, 61.4%-62.8%) reported use of any prescribed medicine. A total of 31.5% (95% CI, 30.7%-32.2%) used a medication from an included drug class, whereas 16.6% (95% CI, 16.0%-17.1%) of the population used a branded drug from the included classes compared with 24.0% (95% CI, 23.4%-24.7%) who used a generic and 9.1% (95% CI, 8.7%-9.4%) who used both. In the included drug classes, the majority of the drugs were generics, with a total of 93.5 billion standardized doses compared with 47.4 billion standardized doses of branded drugs. Total expenditure of the branded drugs accounted for $147 (95% CI, $137-$156) billion compared with $62.7 (95% CI, $58.9-$66.5) billion for the generics. Between 2010 and 2012, an estimated $73.0 (95% CI, $67.6-$78.5) billion in total excess expenditure and $24.6 (95% CI, $22.6-$26.5) billion in out-of-pocket excess expenditure was attributable to branded drug overuse. The excess was present across numerous drug classes throughout many aspects of medicine and equates to 9.6% of total and 14.1% of out-of-pocket prescribed medicine

  4. A hyperspectral approach to estimating biomass and plant production in a heterogeneous restored temperate peatland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byrd, K. B.; Schile, L. M.; Windham-Myers, L.; Kelly, M.; Hatala, J.; Baldocchi, D. D.

    2012-12-01

    Restoration of drained peatlands that are managed to reverse subsidence through organic accretion holds significant potential for large-scale carbon storage and sequestration. This potential has been demonstrated in an experimental wetland restoration site established by the U.S. Geological Survey in 1997 on Twitchell Island in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, where soil carbon storage is up to 1 kg C m-2 and root and rhizome production can reach over 7 kg m-2 annually. Remote sensing-based estimation of biomass and productivity over a large spatial extent helps to monitor carbon storage potential of these restored peatlands. Extensive field measurements of plant biophysical characteristics such as biomass, leaf area index, and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) [an important variable in light-use efficiency (LUE) models] have been collected for agricultural systems and forests. However the small size and local spatial variability of U.S. Pacific Coast wetlands pose new challenges for measuring these variables in the field and generating estimates through remote sensing. In particular background effects of non-photosynthetic vegetation (NPV), floating aquatic vegetation, and inundation of wetland vegetation influence the relationship between field measurements and multispectral or hyperspectral indices. Working at the USGS experimental wetland site, characterized by variable water depth and substantial NPV, or thatch, we collected field data on hardstem bulrush (Schoenoplectus acutus) and cattail (Typha spp.) coupled with reflectance data from a field spectrometer (350-2500 nm) every two to three weeks during the summers of 2011 and 2012. We calculated aboveground biomass with existing allometric relationships, and fAPAR was measured with line and point quantum sensors. We analyzed reflectance data to develop hyperspectral and multispectral indices that predict biomass and fAPAR and account for background effects of water

  5. Production, formulation and cost estimation of a commercial biosurfactant.

    PubMed

    Soares da Silva, Rita de Cássia Freire; de Almeida, Darne Germano; Brasileiro, Pedro Pinto Ferreira; Rufino, Raquel Diniz; de Luna, Juliana Moura; Sarubbo, Leonie Asfora

    2018-05-03

    Due to their amphipathic nature, biosurfactants are multifunctional molecules that have considerable potential in several industries, especially the petroleum industry. In this study, the commercial production of a biosurfactant from Pseudomonas cepacia CCT6659 grown on industrial waste was investigated in a semi-industrial 50-L bioreactor for use in the removal of hydrocarbons from oily effluents. A concentration of 40.5 g/L was achieved in the scale up and the surface tension was reduced to 29 mN/m. The biosurfactant was formulated with an added preservative, tyndallization and the combination of fluent vaporization plus the preservative. Formulated biosurfactant samples were stored for 120 days. Tensioactive properties and stability were evaluated with different pH values, temperatures and salt concentrations. The commercial biosurfactant obtained with all formulation methods demonstrated good stability, with tolerance to a wide range of pH values as well as high temperature and high salinity, enabling application in extreme environmental conditions, as it occurs in industrial plants. The biosurfactant proved to be economically viable for large-scale application, as demonstrated by the cost of the product, estimated at around US$ 0.14-0.15/L and US$ 0.02/g for the formulated and the isolated biosurfactant, respectively. Both products were applied in an oil-fired thermoelectric plant for the treatment of oily effluents and removed up to 100% of the oil. Therefore, this biosurfactant is suitable for application under extreme conditions, such as in the petroleum industry, and can be produced at a more attractive price compared to other commercially available products on the market.

  6. Multiple Component Event-Related Potential (mcERP) Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Knuth, K. H.; Clanton, S. T.; Shah, A. S.; Truccolo, W. A.; Ding, M.; Bressler, S. L.; Trejo, L. J.; Schroeder, C. E.; Clancy, Daniel (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    We show how model-based estimation of the neural sources responsible for transient neuroelectric signals can be improved by the analysis of single trial data. Previously, we showed that a multiple component event-related potential (mcERP) algorithm can extract the responses of individual sources from recordings of a mixture of multiple, possibly interacting, neural ensembles. McERP also estimated single-trial amplitudes and onset latencies, thus allowing more accurate estimation of ongoing neural activity during an experimental trial. The mcERP algorithm is related to informax independent component analysis (ICA); however, the underlying signal model is more physiologically realistic in that a component is modeled as a stereotypic waveshape varying both in amplitude and onset latency from trial to trial. The result is a model that reflects quantities of interest to the neuroscientist. Here we demonstrate that the mcERP algorithm provides more accurate results than more traditional methods such as factor analysis and the more recent ICA. Whereas factor analysis assumes the sources are orthogonal and ICA assumes the sources are statistically independent, the mcERP algorithm makes no such assumptions thus allowing investigators to examine interactions among components by estimating the properties of single-trial responses.

  7. Potential feedstock sources for ethanol production in Florida

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Rahmani, Mohammad; Hodges, Alan

    This study presents information on the potential feedstock sources that may be used for ethanol production in Florida. Several potential feedstocks for fuel ethanol production in Florida are discussed, such as, sugarcane, corn, citrus byproducts and sweet sorghum. Other probable impacts need to be analyzed for sugarcane to ethanol production as alternative uses of sugarcane may affect the quantity of sugar production in Florida. While citrus molasses is converted to ethanol as an established process, the cost of ethanol is higher, and the total amount of citrus molasses per year is insignificant. Sorghum cultivars have the potential for ethanol production.more » However, the agricultural practices for growing sweet sorghum for ethanol have not been established, and the conversion process must be tested and developed at a more expanded level. So far, only corn shipped from other states to Florida has been considered for ethanol production on a commercial scale. The economic feasibility of each of these crops requires further data and technical analysis.« less

  8. From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials

    PubMed Central

    Rasch, Malte; Logthetis, Nikos K.; Kreiman, Gabriel

    2010-01-01

    Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs, a circuit property) and spiking multi-unit activity (MUA). There has been increased interest in LFPs due to their correlation with fMRI measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same or nearby electrodes. We used Signal Estimation Theory to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one/few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positve time lags. The filter was similar across neocortical regions and behavioral conditions including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of ~1 mm and a temporal resolution of ~200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within ~10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In sum, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons. PMID:19889990

  9. Emission characteristics of VOCs emitted from consumer and commercial products and their ozone formation potential.

    PubMed

    Dinh, Trieu-Vuong; Kim, Su-Yeon; Son, Youn-Suk; Choi, In-Young; Park, Seong-Ryong; Sunwoo, Young; Kim, Jo-Chun

    2015-06-01

    The characteristics of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) emitted from several consumer and commercial products (body wash, dishwashing detergent, air freshener, windshield washer fluid, lubricant, hair spray, and insecticide) were studied and compared. The spray products were found to emit the highest amount of VOCs (~96 wt%). In contrast, the body wash products showed the lowest VOC contents (~1.6 wt%). In the spray products, 21.6-96.4 % of the VOCs were propane, iso-butane, and n-butane, which are the components of liquefied petroleum gas. Monoterpene (C10H16) was the dominant component of the VOCs in the non-spray products (e.g., body wash, 53-88 %). In particular, methanol was present with the highest amount of VOCs in windshield washer fluid products. In terms of the number of carbon, the windshield washer fluids, lubricants, insecticides, and hair sprays comprised >95 % of the VOCs in the range C2-C5. The VOCs in the range C6-C10 were predominantly found in the body wash products. The dishwashing detergents and air fresheners contained diverse VOCs from C2 to C11. Besides comprising hazardous VOCs, VOCs from consumer products were also ozone precursors. The ozone formation potential of the consumer and commercial spray products was estimated to be higher than those of liquid and gel materials. In particular, the hair sprays showed the highest ozone formation potential.

  10. Updated Estimates of the Remaining Market Potential of the U.S. ESCO Industry

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Larsen, Peter H.; Carvallo Bodelon, Juan Pablo; Goldman, Charles A.

    The energy service company (ESCO) industry has a well-established track record of delivering energy and economic savings in the public and institutional buildings sector, primarily through the use of performance-based contracts. The ESCO industry often provides (or helps arrange) private sector financing to complete public infrastructure projects with little or no up-front cost to taxpayers. In 2014, total U.S. ESCO industry revenue was estimated at $5.3 billion. ESCOs expect total industry revenue to grow to $7.6 billion in 2017—a 13% annual growth rate from 2015-2017. Researchers at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) were asked by the U.S. Department of Energymore » Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) to update and expand our estimates of the remaining market potential of the U.S. ESCO industry. We define remaining market potential as the aggregate amount of project investment by ESCOs that is technically possible based on the types of projects that ESCOS have historically implemented in the institutional, commercial, and industrial sectors using ESCO estimates of current market penetration in those sectors. In this analysis, we report U.S. ESCO industry remaining market potential under two scenarios: (1) a base case and (2) a case “unfettered” by market, bureaucratic, and regulatory barriers. We find that there is significant remaining market potential for the U.S. ESCO industry under both the base and unfettered cases. For the base case, we estimate a remaining market potential of $92-$201 billion ($2016). We estimate a remaining market potential of $190-$333 billion for the unfettered case. It is important to note, however, that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the estimates for both the base and unfettered cases.« less

  11. Models for estimating photosynthesis parameters from in situ production profiles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovač, Žarko; Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha; Antunović, Suzana

    2017-12-01

    The rate of carbon assimilation in phytoplankton primary production models is mathematically prescribed with photosynthesis irradiance functions, which convert a light flux (energy) into a material flux (carbon). Information on this rate is contained in photosynthesis parameters: the initial slope and the assimilation number. The exactness of parameter values is crucial for precise calculation of primary production. Here we use a model of the daily production profile based on a suite of photosynthesis irradiance functions and extract photosynthesis parameters from in situ measured daily production profiles at the Hawaii Ocean Time-series station Aloha. For each function we recover parameter values, establish parameter distributions and quantify model skill. We observe that the choice of the photosynthesis irradiance function to estimate the photosynthesis parameters affects the magnitudes of parameter values as recovered from in situ profiles. We also tackle the problem of parameter exchange amongst the models and the effect it has on model performance. All models displayed little or no bias prior to parameter exchange, but significant bias following parameter exchange. The best model performance resulted from using optimal parameter values. Model formulation was extended further by accounting for spectral effects and deriving a spectral analytical solution for the daily production profile. The daily production profile was also formulated with time dependent growing biomass governed by a growth equation. The work on parameter recovery was further extended by exploring how to extract photosynthesis parameters from information on watercolumn production. It was demonstrated how to estimate parameter values based on a linearization of the full analytical solution for normalized watercolumn production and from the solution itself, without linearization. The paper complements previous works on photosynthesis irradiance models by analysing the skill and consistency of

  12. SAR Agriculture Rice Production Estimation (SARPE)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raimadoya, M.

    2013-12-01

    The study of SAR Agriculture Rice Production Estimation (SARPE) was held in Indonesia on 2012, as part of Asia-Rice Crop Estimation & Monitoring (Asia-RiCE), which is a component for the GEO Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) initiative. The study was expected to give a breakthrough result, by using radar technology and paradigm shift of the standard production estimation system from list frame to area frame approach. This initial product estimation system is expected to be refined (fine tuning) in 2013, by participating as part of Technical Demonstration Site (Phase -1A) of Asia-RICE. The implementation period of this initial study was from the date of March 12 to December 10, 2012. The implementation of the study was done by following the approach of the BIMAS-21 framework, which has been developed since 2008. The results of this study can be briefly divided into two major components, namely: Rice-field Baseline Mapping (PESBAK - Peta Sawah Baku) and Crop Growth Monitoring. Rice-fields were derived from the mapping results of the Ministry of Agriculture (Kemtan), and validated through Student Extension Campaign of the Faculty of Agriculture, Bogor Agricultural University (IPB). While for the crop growth, it was derived from the results of image analysis process. The analysis was done, either on radar/Radarsat-2 (medium resolution) or optical/ MODIS (low resolution), based on the Planting Calendar (KATAM) of Kemtan. In this case, the planting season II/2012-2013 of rice production centers in West Java Province (Karawang, Subang and Indramayu counties). The selection of crop season and county were entirely dependent on the quality of the available PESBAK and procurement process of radar imagery. The PESBAK is still in the form of block instead of fields, so it can not be directly utilized in this study. Efforts to improve the PESBAK can not be optimal because the provided satellite image (ECW format) is not the original one. While the procurement process of

  13. Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

    2018-02-01

    We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m2 of suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.

  14. Characterization of silver nanoparticles in selected consumer products and its relevance for predicting children’s potential exposures

    PubMed Central

    Tulve, Nicolle S.; Stefaniak, Aleksandr B.; Vance, Marina E.; Rogers, Kim; Mwilu, Samuel; LeBouf, Ryan F.; Schwegler-Berry, Diane; Willis, Robert; Thomas, Treye A.; Marr, Linsey C.

    2015-01-01

    Due to their antifungal, antibacterial, antiviral, and antimicrobial properties, silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) are used in consumer products intended for use by children or in the home. Children may be especially affected by the normal use of consumer products because of their physiological functions, developmental stage, and activities and behaviors. Despite much research to date, children’s potential exposures to AgNPs are not well characterized. Our objectives were to characterize selected consumer products containing AgNPs and to use the data to estimate a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure. We identified and cataloged 165 consumer products claiming to contain AgNPs that may be used by or near children or found in the home. Nineteen products (textile, liquid, plastic) were selected for further analysis. We developed a tiered analytical approach to determine silver content, form (particulate or ionic), size, morphology, agglomeration state, and composition. Silver was detected in all products except one sippy cup body. Among products in a given category, silver mass contributions were highly variable and not always uniformly distributed within products, highlighting the need to sample multiple areas of a product. Electron microscopy confirmed the presence of AgNPs. Using this data, a child’s potential non-dietary ingestion exposure to AgNPs when drinking milk formula from a sippy cup is 1.53 μg Ag/kg. Additional research is needed to understand the number and types of consumer products containing silver and the concentrations of silver in these products in order to more accurately predict children’s potential aggregate and cumulative exposures to AgNPs. PMID:25747543

  15. Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

    2017-01-01

    Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

  16. Spline Laplacian estimate of EEG potentials over a realistic magnetic resonance-constructed scalp surface model.

    PubMed

    Babiloni, F; Babiloni, C; Carducci, F; Fattorini, L; Onorati, P; Urbano, A

    1996-04-01

    This paper presents a realistic Laplacian (RL) estimator based on a tensorial formulation of the surface Laplacian (SL) that uses the 2-D thin plate spline function to obtain a mathematical description of a realistic scalp surface. Because of this tensorial formulation, the RL does not need an orthogonal reference frame placed on the realistic scalp surface. In simulation experiments the RL was estimated with an increasing number of "electrodes" (up to 256) on a mathematical scalp model, the analytic Laplacian being used as a reference. Second and third order spherical spline Laplacian estimates were examined for comparison. Noise of increasing magnitude and spatial frequency was added to the simulated potential distributions. Movement-related potentials and somatosensory evoked potentials sampled with 128 electrodes were used to estimate the RL on a realistically shaped, MR-constructed model of the subject's scalp surface. The RL was also estimated on a mathematical spherical scalp model computed from the real scalp surface. Simulation experiments showed that the performances of the RL estimator were similar to those of the second and third order spherical spline Laplacians. Furthermore, the information content of scalp-recorded potentials was clearly better when the RL estimator computed the SL of the potential on an MR-constructed scalp surface model.

  17. From neurons to circuits: linear estimation of local field potentials.

    PubMed

    Rasch, Malte; Logothetis, Nikos K; Kreiman, Gabriel

    2009-11-04

    Extracellular physiological recordings are typically separated into two frequency bands: local field potentials (LFPs) (a circuit property) and spiking multiunit activity (MUA). Recently, there has been increased interest in LFPs because of their correlation with functional magnetic resonance imaging blood oxygenation level-dependent measurements and the possibility of studying local processing and neuronal synchrony. To further understand the biophysical origin of LFPs, we asked whether it is possible to estimate their time course based on the spiking activity from the same electrode or nearby electrodes. We used "signal estimation theory" to show that a linear filter operation on the activity of one or a few neurons can explain a significant fraction of the LFP time course in the macaque monkey primary visual cortex. The linear filter used to estimate the LFPs had a stereotypical shape characterized by a sharp downstroke at negative time lags and a slower positive upstroke for positive time lags. The filter was similar across different neocortical regions and behavioral conditions, including spontaneous activity and visual stimulation. The estimations had a spatial resolution of approximately 1 mm and a temporal resolution of approximately 200 ms. By considering a causal filter, we observed a temporal asymmetry such that the positive time lags in the filter contributed more to the LFP estimation than the negative time lags. Additionally, we showed that spikes occurring within approximately 10 ms of spikes from nearby neurons yielded better estimation accuracies than nonsynchronous spikes. In summary, our results suggest that at least some circuit-level local properties of the field potentials can be predicted from the activity of one or a few neurons.

  18. General circulation model response to production-limited fossil fuel emission estimates.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, K. W.; Rutledge, D.; Miller, C.

    2008-12-01

    The differences in emissions scenarios used to drive IPCC climate projections are the largest sources of uncertainty in future temperature predictions. These estimates are critically dependent on oil, gas, and coal production where the extremal variations in fossil fuel production used in these scenarios is roughly 10:1 after 2100. The development of emission scenarios based on production-limited fossil fuel estimates, i.e., total fossil fuel reserves can be reliably predicted from cumulative production, offers the opportunity to significantly reduce this uncertainty. We present preliminary results of the response of the NASA GISS atmospheric general circulation model to input forcings constrained by production-limited cumulative future fossil-fuel CO2 emissions estimates that reach roughly 500 GtC by 2100, which is significantly lower than any of the IPCC emission scenarios. For climate projections performed from 1958 through 2400 and a climate sensitivity of 5C/2xCO2, the change in globally averaged annual mean temperature relative to fixed CO2 does not exceed 3C with most changes occurring at high latitudes. We find that from 2100-2400 other input forcings such as increased in N2O play an important role in maintaining increase surface temperatures.

  19. Switchgrass nitrogen response and estimated production costs on diverse sites

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) has been the principal perennial herbaceous crop investigated for bioenergy production in North America given its high production potential, relatively low input requirements, and potential suitability for use on marginal lands. Few large trials have determined swit...

  20. Estimation of parameters of constant elasticity of substitution production functional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahaboob, B.; Venkateswarlu, B.; Sankar, J. Ravi

    2017-11-01

    Nonlinear model building has become an increasing important powerful tool in mathematical economics. In recent years the popularity of applications of nonlinear models has dramatically been rising up. Several researchers in econometrics are very often interested in the inferential aspects of nonlinear regression models [6]. The present research study gives a distinct method of estimation of more complicated and highly nonlinear model viz Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production functional model. Henningen et.al [5] proposed three solutions to avoid serious problems when estimating CES functions in 2012 and they are i) removing discontinuities by using the limits of the CES function and its derivative. ii) Circumventing large rounding errors by local linear approximations iii) Handling ill-behaved objective functions by a multi-dimensional grid search. Joel Chongeh et.al [7] discussed the estimation of the impact of capital and labour inputs to the gris output agri-food products using constant elasticity of substitution production function in Tanzanian context. Pol Antras [8] presented new estimates of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labour using data from the private sector of the U.S. economy for the period 1948-1998.

  1. Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Boswell, R.; Kurihara, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Koh, C.; Sloan, E.D.

    2008-01-01

    Gas hydrates are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural gas hydrate accumulations, the status of the primary international R&D programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing commercialization of production. After a brief examination of gas hydrate accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps are either not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of gas hydrate deposits, and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates over long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets, (b) methods to maximize production, and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain gas hydrate deposits undesirable for production. Copyright 2008, Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  2. Toward production from gas hydrates: Current status, assessment of resources, and simulation-based evaluation of technology and potential

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Moridis, G.J.; Collett, T.S.; Boswell, R.; Kurihara, M.; Reagan, M.T.; Koh, C.; Sloan, E.D.

    2009-01-01

    Gas hydrates (GHs) are a vast energy resource with global distribution in the permafrost and in the oceans. Even if conservative estimates are considered and only a small fraction is recoverable, the sheer size of the resource is so large that it demands evaluation as a potential energy source. In this review paper, we discuss the distribution of natural GH accumulations, the status of the primary international research and development (R&D) programs, and the remaining science and technological challenges facing the commercialization of production. After a brief examination of GH accumulations that are well characterized and appear to be models for future development and gas production, we analyze the role of numerical simulation in the assessment of the hydrate-production potential, identify the data needs for reliable predictions, evaluate the status of knowledge with regard to these needs, discuss knowledge gaps and their impact, and reach the conclusion that the numerical-simulation capabilities are quite advanced and that the related gaps either are not significant or are being addressed. We review the current body of literature relevant to potential productivity from different types of GH deposits and determine that there are consistent indications of a large production potential at high rates across long periods from a wide variety of hydrate deposits. Finally, we identify (a) features, conditions, geology and techniques that are desirable in potential production targets; (b) methods to maximize production; and (c) some of the conditions and characteristics that render certain GH deposits undesirable for production. Copyright ?? 2009 Society of Petroleum Engineers.

  3. A process model to estimate biodiesel production costs.

    PubMed

    Haas, Michael J; McAloon, Andrew J; Yee, Winnie C; Foglia, Thomas A

    2006-03-01

    'Biodiesel' is the name given to a renewable diesel fuel that is produced from fats and oils. It consists of the simple alkyl esters of fatty acids, most typically the methyl esters. We have developed a computer model to estimate the capital and operating costs of a moderately-sized industrial biodiesel production facility. The major process operations in the plant were continuous-process vegetable oil transesterification, and ester and glycerol recovery. The model was designed using contemporary process simulation software, and current reagent, equipment and supply costs, following current production practices. Crude, degummed soybean oil was specified as the feedstock. Annual production capacity of the plant was set at 37,854,118 l (10 x 10(6)gal). Facility construction costs were calculated to be US dollar 11.3 million. The largest contributors to the equipment cost, accounting for nearly one third of expenditures, were storage tanks to contain a 25 day capacity of feedstock and product. At a value of US dollar 0.52/kg (dollar 0.236/lb) for feedstock soybean oil, a biodiesel production cost of US dollar 0.53/l (dollar 2.00/gal) was predicted. The single greatest contributor to this value was the cost of the oil feedstock, which accounted for 88% of total estimated production costs. An analysis of the dependence of production costs on the cost of the feedstock indicated a direct linear relationship between the two, with a change of US dollar 0.020/l (dollar 0.075/gal) in product cost per US dollar 0.022/kg (dollar 0.01/lb) change in oil cost. Process economics included the recovery of coproduct glycerol generated during biodiesel production, and its sale into the commercial glycerol market as an 80% w/w aqueous solution, which reduced production costs by approximately 6%. The production cost of biodiesel was found to vary inversely and linearly with variations in the market value of glycerol, increasing by US dollar 0.0022/l (dollar 0.0085/gal) for every US

  4. Fructo-oligosaccharides: Production, Purification and Potential Applications.

    PubMed

    Bali, Vandana; Panesar, Parmjit S; Bera, Manab B; Panesar, Reeba

    2015-01-01

    The nutritional and therapeutic benefits of prebiotics have attracted the keen interest of consumers and food processing industry for their use as food ingredients. Fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS), new alternative sweeteners, constitute 1-kestose, nystose, and 1-beta-fructofuranosyl nystose produced from sucrose by the action of fructosyltransferase from plants, bacteria, yeast, and fungi. FOS has low caloric values, non-cariogenic properties, and help gut absorption of ions, decrease levels of lipids and cholesterol and bifidus-stimulating functionality. The purified linear fructose oligomers are added to various food products like cookies, yoghurt, infant milk products, desserts, and beverages due to their potential health benefits. This review is focused on the various aspects of biotechnological production, purification and potential applications of fructo-oligosaccharides.

  5. Estimating Most Productive Scale Size in Data Envelopment Analysis with Integer Value Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dwi Sari, Yunita; Angria S, Layla; Efendi, Syahril; Zarlis, Muhammad

    2018-01-01

    The most productive scale size (MPSS) is a measurement that states how resources should be organized and utilized to achieve optimal results. The most productive scale size (MPSS) can be used as a benchmark for the success of an industry or company in producing goods or services. To estimate the most productive scale size (MPSS), each decision making unit (DMU) should pay attention the level of input-output efficiency, by data envelopment analysis (DEA) method decision making unit (DMU) can identify units used as references that can help to find the cause and solution from inefficiencies can optimize productivity that main advantage in managerial applications. Therefore, data envelopment analysis (DEA) is chosen to estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) that will focus on the input of integer value data with the CCR model and the BCC model. The purpose of this research is to find the best solution for estimating most productive scale size (MPSS) with input of integer value data in data envelopment analysis (DEA) method.

  6. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of Mali

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Kone, Fatiaga

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in Mali (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in Mali and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, four different methodologies were used: the cylindrical calculation of the primary kimberlitic deposits, the surface area methodology, the volume and grade approach, and the content per kilometer approach. Approximately 700,000 carats are estimated to be in the alluvial deposits of the Kenieba region, with 540,000 carats calculated to lie within the concentration grade deposits. Additionally, 580,000 carats are estimated to have

  7. Determination of Trace Metals, Moisture, pH and Assessment of Potential Toxicity of Selected Smokeless Tobacco Products

    PubMed Central

    Prabhakar, V.; Jayakrishnan, G.; Nair, S. V.; Ranganathan, B.

    2013-01-01

    The characterization and classification of smokeless tobacco products has been a continuously evolving process. This is based on a number of different parameters like nicotine content, moisture content, amount of heavy metals, pH, and in vitro cytotoxicity assays. Their contexts often vary between countries, research institutions, and legal requirements. The categorisation of these products is quite challenging due to the diffused sample sizes, diverse array of branded products on offer, and the absence of a centralized manufacturing facility. This study aims at a systematic classification of 10 smokeless tobacco product samples from the retail market based on their potential toxicity upon long-term use. The estimation of potential toxicity follows a well-established method that employs the concentration of toxic metals in the different samples. The potential toxicity as well as heavy metal concentrations of the smokeless tobacco products analysed was found to be much higher than acceptable limits. For instance, the levels of lead, cadmium, copper and zinc of 2.5, 1, 4 and 23 ppm, respectively, are well above their recommended limits. The results from the study indicate that chronic use of smokeless tobacco products is a significant health risk, especially in the vulnerable population. Further studies of this nature will help establish a toxicological fingerprint on the diverse class of products that floods the market now. PMID:24082341

  8. Valuing productivity costs in a changing macroeconomic environment: the estimation of colorectal cancer productivity costs using the friction cost approach.

    PubMed

    Hanly, Paul; Koopmanschap, Marc; Sharp, Linda

    2016-06-01

    The friction cost approach (FCA) has been proposed as an alternative to the human capital approach for productivity cost valuation. However, FCA estimates are context dependent and influenced by extant macroeconomic conditions. We applied the FCA to estimate colorectal cancer labor productivity costs and assessed the impact of a changing macroeconomic environment on these estimates. Data from colorectal cancer survivors (n = 159) derived from a postal survey undertaken in Ireland March 2010 to January 2011 were combined with national wage data, population-level survival data, and occupation-specific friction periods to calculate temporary and permanent disability, and premature mortality costs using the FCA. The effects of changing labor market conditions between 2006 and 2013 on the friction period were modeled in scenario analyses. Costs were valued in 2008 euros. In the base-case, the total FCA per-person productivity cost for incident colorectal cancer patients of working age at diagnosis was €8543. In scenario 1 (a 2.2 % increase in unemployment), the fall in the friction period caused total productivity costs to decrease by up to 18 % compared to base-case estimates. In scenario 2 (a 9.2 % increase in unemployment), the largest decrease in productivity cost was up to 65 %. Adjusting for the vacancy rate reduced the effect of unemployment on the cost results. The friction period used in calculating labor productivity costs greatly affects the derived estimates; this friction period requires reassessment following changes in labor market conditions. The influence of changes in macroeconomic conditions on FCA-derived cost estimates may be substantial.

  9. Estimation and analysis of multifactor productivity in truck transportation : 1987 - 2003

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-02-01

    The analysis has three objectives: 1) to estimate multifactor : productivity (MFP) in truck transportation during : 1987-2003; 2) to examine changes in multifactor productivity : in U.S. truck transportation, over time, and : to compare these changes...

  10. [Smoking-attributable productivity loss in Germany--a partial sickness cost study based on the human capital potential method].

    PubMed

    Wegner, C; Gutsch, A; Hessel, F; Wasem, J

    2004-07-01

    Costs of productivity loss for the Federal Republic of Germany attributable to smoking in 1999 was to be determined. Mortality and morbidity attributable to smoking is determined by a 0.5 % sample of the smoking behaviour of the German population (microcensus 1999) and the relative mortality risks of smokers (US-American cancer prevention study II). Tobacco smoke-associated cancer illnesses, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory tract diseases and illnesses of children under one year are considered. Calculation of the productivity-relevant consequences of smoking due to morbidity and mortality is effected according to the so-called human potential capital method. In Germany total of 607,393 working years were lost because of smoking in the year 1999. The costs of productivity loss are estimated at 14,480 billion euro. From this 4,525 billion euro are allotted to premature mortality, 5.759 billion euro to permanent disablement and 4.196 billion euro to temporary incapacitation for work. If the costs of productivity loss by smoking are referred to the gross national product (BSP) in the year 1999, an economical damage at a value of 0.74 % of BSPs results. This corresponds to a productivity loss of 379 euro per present or former smoker. The sensitivity analysis manifests that the inclusion of "non-marketable production" results in an immense rise productivity losses attributable to smoking. However, it should be noted that in times of mass unemployment the human capital method which is based on full employment does not measure the actual, but only the potential productivity loss cost. This partial disease cost study shows that immense economic productivity losses are associated with smoking. This loss of resources can justify a purposeful promotion of studies regarding cost effectiveness of anti-smoking therapeutic measures or preventive measures against smoking. But it should be considered that the use of the human potential capital method results in an overestimation

  11. Bacterioplankton in antarctic ocean waters during late austral winter: abundance, frequency of dividing cells, and estimates of production.

    PubMed

    Hanson, R B; Shafer, D; Ryan, T; Pope, D H; Lowery, H K

    1983-05-01

    Bacterioplankton productivity in Antarctic waters of the eastern South Pacific Ocean and Drake Passage was estimated by direct counts and frequency of dividing cells (FDC). Total bacterioplankton assemblages were enumerated by epifluorescent microscopy. The experimentally determined relationship between in situ FDC and the potential instantaneous growth rate constant (mu) is best described by the regression equation ln mu = 0.081 FDC - 3.73. In the eastern South Pacific Ocean, bacterioplankton abundance (2 x 10 to 3.5 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (11%) were highest at the Polar Front (Antarctic Convergence). North of the Subantarctic Front, abundance and FDC were between 1 x 10 to 2 x 10 cells per ml and 3 to 5%, respectively, and were vertically homogeneous to a depth of 600 m. In Drake Passage, abundance (10 x 10 cells per ml) and FDC (16%) were highest in waters south of the Polar Front and near the sea ice. Subantarctic waters in Drake Passage contained 4 x 10 cells per ml with 4 to 5% FDC. Instantaneous growth rate constants ranged between 0.029 and 0.088 h. Using estimates of potential mu and measured standing stocks, we estimated productivity to range from 0.62 mug of C per liter . day in the eastern South Pacific Ocean to 17.1 mug of C per liter . day in the Drake Passage near the sea ice.

  12. Productivity ranges of sustainable biomass potentials from non-agricultural land

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schueler, Vivian; Fuss, Sabine; Steckel, Jan Christoph; Weddige, Ulf; Beringer, Tim

    2016-07-01

    Land is under pressure from a number of demands, including the need for increased supplies of bioenergy. While bioenergy is an important ingredient in many pathways compatible with reaching the 2 °C target, areas where cultivation of the biomass feedstock would be most productive appear to co-host other important ecosystems services. We categorize global geo-data on land availability into productivity deciles, and provide a geographically explicit assessment of potentials that are concurrent with EU sustainability criteria. The deciles unambiguously classify the global productivity range of potential land currently not in agricultural production for biomass cultivation. Results show that 53 exajoule (EJ) sustainable biomass potential are available from 167 million hectares (Mha) with a productivity above 10 tons of dry matter per hectare and year (tD Mha-1 a-1), while additional 33 EJ are available on 264 Mha with yields between 4 and 10 tD M ha-1 a-1: some regions lose less of their highly productive potentials to sustainability concerns than others and regional contributions to bioenergy potentials shift when less productive land is considered. Challenges to limit developments to the exploitation of sustainable potentials arise in Latin America, Africa and Developing Asia, while new opportunities emerge for Transition Economies and OECD countries to cultivate marginal land.

  13. Microphytobenthos primary production estimated by hyperspectral reflectance

    PubMed Central

    Jesus, Bruno; Barnett, Alexandre; Barillé, Laurent; Lavaud, Johann

    2018-01-01

    The use of remote sensing techniques allows monitoring of photosynthesis at the ecosystem level and improves our knowledge of plant primary productivity. The main objective of the current study was to develop a remote sensing based method to measure microphytobenthos (MPB) primary production from intertidal mudflats. This was achieved by coupling hyperspectral radiometry (reflectance, ρ and second derivative, δδ) and PAM-fluorometry (non-sequential light curves, NSLC) measurements. The latter allowed the estimation of primary production using a light use efficiency parameter (LUE) and electron transport rates (ETR) whereas ρ allowed to estimate pigment composition and optical absorption cross-section (a*). Five MPB species representative of the main growth forms: epipelic (benthic motile), epipsammic (benthic motile and non motile) and tychoplanktonic (temporarily resuspended in the water column) were submitted to increasing light intensities from dark to 1950 μmol photons.m-2.s-1. Different fluorescence patterns were observed for the three growth-forms and were linked to their xanthophyll cycle (de-epoxydation state). After spectral reflectance measurements, a* was retrieved using a radiative transfer model and several radiometric indices were tested for their capacity to predict LUE and ETR measured by PAM-fluorometry. Only one radiometric index was not species or growth-form specific, i.e. δδ496/508. This index was named MPBLUE and could be used to predict LUE and ETR. The applicability of this index was tested with simulated bands of a wide variety of hyperspectral sensors at spectral resolutions between 3 and 15 nm of Full Width at Half Maximum (FWHM). PMID:29758047

  14. NREL Triples Previous Estimates of U.S. Wind Power Potential (Fact Sheet)

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Not Available

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) recently released new estimates of the U.S. potential for wind-generated electricity, using advanced wind mapping and validation techniques to triple previous estimates of the size of the nation's wind resources. The new study, conducted by NREL and AWS TruePower, finds that the contiguous 48 states have the potential to generate up to 37 million gigawatt-hours annually. In comparison, the total U.S. electricity generation from all sources was roughly 4 million gigawatt-hours in 2009.

  15. Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer

    We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

  16. Estimating rooftop solar technical potential across the US using a combination of GIS-based methods, lidar data, and statistical modeling

    DOE PAGES

    Gagnon, Pieter; Margolis, Robert; Melius, Jennifer; ...

    2018-01-05

    We provide a detailed estimate of the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation throughout the contiguous United States. This national estimate is based on an analysis of select US cities that combines light detection and ranging (lidar) data with a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems. We use statistical models to extend this analysis to estimate the quantity and characteristics of roofs in areas not covered by lidar data. Finally, we model PV generation for all rooftops to yield technical potential estimates. At the national level, 8.13 billion m 2 ofmore » suitable roof area could host 1118 GW of PV capacity, generating 1432 TWh of electricity per year. This would equate to 38.6% of the electricity that was sold in the contiguous United States in 2013. This estimate is substantially higher than a previous estimate made by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The difference can be attributed to increases in PV module power density, improved estimation of building suitability, higher estimates of total number of buildings, and improvements in PV performance simulation tools that previously tended to underestimate productivity. Also notable, the nationwide percentage of buildings suitable for at least some PV deployment is high—82% for buildings smaller than 5000 ft 2 and over 99% for buildings larger than that. In most states, rooftop PV could enable small, mostly residential buildings to offset the majority of average household electricity consumption. Even in some states with a relatively poor solar resource, such as those in the Northeast, the residential sector has the potential to offset around 100% of its total electricity consumption with rooftop PV.« less

  17. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balkovic, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalsky, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey

    2014-05-01

    Global wheat production is strongly linked with food security as wheat is one of the main sources of human nutrition. Increasing or stabilizing wheat yields in response to climate change is therefore imperative. To do so will require agricultural management interventions that have different levels of flexibility at regional level. Climate change is expected to worsen wheat growing conditions in many places and thus negatively impact on future management opportunities for sustainable intensification. We quantified, in a spatially explicit manner, global wheat yield developments under the envelope of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5) under current and alternative fertilization and irrigation management to estimate future flexibility to cope with climate change impacts. A large-scale implementation of the EPIC model was integrated with the most recent information on global wheat cultivation currently available, and it was used to simulate regional and global wheat yields and production under historical climate and the RCP-driven and bias-corrected HadGEM2-ES climate projections. Fertilization and irrigation management scenarios were designed to project actual and exploitable (under current irrigation infrastructure) yields as well as the climate- and water-limited yield potentials. With current nutrient and water management, and across all RCPs, the global wheat production at the end of the century decreased from 50 to 100 Mt - with RCP2.6 having the lowest and RCP8.5 the highest impact. Despite the decrease in global wheat production potential on current cropland, the exploitable and climatic production gap of respectively 350 and 580 Mt indicates a considerable flexibility to counteract negative climate change impacts across all RCPs. Agricultural management could increase global wheat production by approximately 30% through intensified fertilization and 50% through improved fertilization and extended irrigation if nutrients or water

  18. Pathologic Criteria to Estimate the State of the Liver in Potential Donors.

    PubMed

    Shaimardanova, Caliya; Fedotovskikh, Galina; Savchuk, Aleksandr; Doszhan, Ainura; Smagulova, Aigerim; Gaipov, Abduzhappar

    2015-11-01

    The pathologic evaluation of the liver is one of the most important issues in liver transplants. We evaluated the histopathological condition of livers in potential donors. After liver biopsy, 37 potential donor livers were histologically studied. Liver tissue was stained by hematoxylin and eosin as well as Masson Trichrome. The results of the study showed the morphologic criteria used to estimate the state of the liver in potential donors is not only steatosis and fibrosis, but other important histologic criteria, such as proteinosis, necrosis of hepatocytes, endotheliitis of central veins, inflammatory infiltration, endarteritis in portal tracts and phlebitis in portal tracts, proliferation of the bile ducts, and cholestasis. Results of the study showed that the morphologic criteria to estimate the state of the liver in potential donors includes not only steatosis and fibrosis, but other important histologic criteria as well.

  19. Estimating annual bole biomass production using uncertainty analysis

    Treesearch

    Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O' Connell

    2007-01-01

    Two common sampling methodologies coupled with a simple statistical model were evaluated to determine the accuracy and precision of annual bole biomass production (BBP) and inter-annual variability estimates using this type of approach. We performed an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo methods in conjunction with radial growth core data from trees in three Douglas...

  20. Using Empirical Data to Estimate Potential Functions in Commodity Markets: Some Initial Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shen, C.; Haven, E.

    2017-12-01

    This paper focuses on estimating real and quantum potentials from financial commodities. The log returns of six common commodities are considered. We find that some phenomena, such as the vertical potential walls and the time scale issue of the variation on returns, also exists in commodity markets. By comparing the quantum and classical potentials, we attempt to demonstrate that the information within these two types of potentials is different. We believe this empirical result is consistent with the theoretical assumption that quantum potentials (when embedded into social science contexts) may contain some social cognitive or market psychological information, while classical potentials mainly reflect `hard' market conditions. We also compare the two potential forces and explore their relationship by simply estimating the Pearson correlation between them. The Medium or weak interaction effect may indicate that the cognitive system among traders may be affected by those `hard' market conditions.

  1. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom

    PubMed Central

    Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Moorby, Jon M.; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H.

    2018-01-01

    Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the ‘hottest’ 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today’s average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years. PMID:29738581

  2. Spatially explicit estimation of heat stress-related impacts of climate change on the milk production of dairy cows in the United Kingdom.

    PubMed

    Fodor, Nándor; Foskolos, Andreas; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Moorby, Jon M; Pásztor, László; Foyer, Christine H

    2018-01-01

    Dairy farming is one the most important sectors of United Kingdom (UK) agriculture. It faces major challenges due to climate change, which will have direct impacts on dairy cows as a result of heat stress. In the absence of adaptations, this could potentially lead to considerable milk loss. Using an 11-member climate projection ensemble, as well as an ensemble of 18 milk loss estimation methods, temporal changes in milk production of UK dairy cows were estimated for the 21st century at a 25 km resolution in a spatially-explicit way. While increases in UK temperatures are projected to lead to relatively low average annual milk losses, even for southern UK regions (<180 kg/cow), the 'hottest' 25×25 km grid cell in the hottest year in the 2090s, showed an annual milk loss exceeding 1300 kg/cow. This figure represents approximately 17% of the potential milk production of today's average cow. Despite the potential considerable inter-annual variability of annual milk loss, as well as the large differences between the climate projections, the variety of calculation methods is likely to introduce even greater uncertainty into milk loss estimations. To address this issue, a novel, more biologically-appropriate mechanism of estimating milk loss is proposed that provides more realistic future projections. We conclude that South West England is the region most vulnerable to climate change economically, because it is characterised by a high dairy herd density and therefore potentially high heat stress-related milk loss. In the absence of mitigation measures, estimated heat stress-related annual income loss for this region by the end of this century may reach £13.4M in average years and £33.8M in extreme years.

  3. Estimating the potential intensification of global grazing systems based on climate adjusted yield gap analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheehan, J. J.

    2016-12-01

    We report here a first-of-its-kind analysis of the potential for intensification of global grazing systems. Intensification is calculated using the statistical yield gap methodology developed previously by others (Mueller et al 2012 and Licker et al 2010) for global crop systems. Yield gaps are estimated by binning global pasture land area into 100 equal area sized bins of similar climate (defined by ranges of rainfall and growing degree days). Within each bin, grid cells of pastureland are ranked from lowest to highest productivity. The global intensification potential is defined as the sum of global production across all bins at a given percentile ranking (e.g. performance at the 90th percentile) divided by the total current global production. The previous yield gap studies focused on crop systems because productivity data on these systems is readily available. Nevertheless, global crop land represents only one-third of total global agricultural land, while pasture systems account for the remaining two-thirds. Thus, it is critical to conduct the same kind of analysis on what is the largest human use of land on the planet—pasture systems. In 2013, Herrero et al announced the completion of a geospatial data set that augmented the animal census data with data and modeling about production systems and overall food productivity (Herrero et al, PNAS 2013). With this data set, it is now possible to apply yield gap analysis to global pasture systems. We used the Herrero et al data set to evaluate yield gaps for meat and milk production from pasture based systems for cattle, sheep and goats. The figure included with this abstract shows the intensification potential for kcal per hectare per year of meat and milk from global cattle, sheep and goats as a function of increasing levels of performance. Performance is measured as the productivity achieved at a given ranked percentile within each bin.We find that if all pasture land were raised to their 90th percentile of

  4. Biodiesel production potential from fat fraction of municipal waste in Makkah

    PubMed Central

    2017-01-01

    In the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), millions of Muslims come to perform Pilgrimage every year. Around one million ton of municipal solid waste (MSW) is generated in Makkah city annually. The collected MSW is disposed of in the landfills without any treatment or energy recovery. As a result, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and contamination of the soil and water bodies along with leachate and odors are occurring in waste disposal vicinities. The composition of MSW shows that food waste is the largest waste stream (up to 51%) of the total generated MSW. About 13% of the food waste consists of fat content that is equivalent to about 64 thousand tons per year. This study aims to estimate the production potential of biodiesel first time in Makkah city from fat/oil fractions of MSW and highlight its economic and environmental benefits. It has been estimated that 62.53, 117.15 and 6.38 thousand tons of biodiesel, meat and bone meal (MBM) and glycerol respectively could be produced in 2014. A total electricity potential of 852 Gigawatt hour (GWh) from all three sources based on their energy contents, Higher Heating Value (HHV) of 40.17, 18.33 and 19 MJ/kg, was estimated for 2014 that will increase up to 1777 GWh in 2050. The cumulative net savings from landfill waste diversion (256 to 533 million Saudi Riyal (SAR)), carbon credits (46 to 96 million SAR), fuel savings (146 to 303 million SAR) and electricity generation (273 to 569 million SAR) have a potential to add a total net revenue of 611 to 1274 million SAR every year to the Saudi economy, from 2014 to 2050 respectively. However, further studies including real-time data about annual slaughtering activities and the amount of waste generation and its management are critical to decide optimum waste management practices based on life cycle assessment (LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC) methodologies. PMID:28207856

  5. Evaluation of Land Suitability and Potential Production of Gambir Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) at Salido Saribulan, Pesisir Selatan Regency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuni, Juniarti

    2017-04-01

    Gambir (Uncaria gambir Roxb. L) is a specific commodity of export in West Sumatra. Area of Gambir tree increases about 8 % per year in West Sumatera and until 1998 its production increased about 17% per year. However, in 1999 its area does not parallel with its production. In the last five years, the volume of export increases about 82.81%, while its value of export reaches US 2.5/kg. Therefore, this commodity has a strategic value for city's earnings. One of predicted causes is the use of unappropriated land. The aim of this research is to measure levels of land suitability in the buffer zone. TNKS (The National Park Kerinci-Seblat) in order to get the area, which is suitable for growing commodity of Gambir tree. To evaluate land suitability, quantitative model from FAO is used by combining environmental data, climate and condition of land (physical and chemical characteristic of the land). Estimation of Radiation Thermal Production Potential (RPP). Every data is measured (rating) individually and included in several mathematical formulas. After that, potential production of a land based on climate (Climate Production Potential) = CPP) is obtained quantitatively. By changing certain variant of this model program, it can predict the result of the plant in another area. By entering the real data of a land plant production, this model can predict the real plant production of land (Land Production Potential= LPP). Salido Saribulan area is included in class of land suitability S3f which is suitable for growing Gambir tree with a limitation factor of nutrient retention. Potential of actual gambir production at Salido Saribulan is 5 ton/ha, which is higher than actual gambir production.

  6. OLED Lighting Products: Capabilities, Challenges, Potential

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Miller, N. J.; Leon, F. A.

    A report that focuses on the potential for architectural OLED lighting – describing currently available OLED products as well as promised improvements, and addressing the technology and market hurdles that have thus far prevented wider use of OLEDs.

  7. Potentials for food waste minimization and effects on potential biogas production through anaerobic digestion.

    PubMed

    Schott, Anna Bernstad Saraiva; Vukicevic, Sanita; Bohn, Irene; Andersson, Tova

    2013-08-01

    Several treatment alternatives for food waste can result in both energy and nutrient recovery, and thereby potential environmental benefits. However, according to the European Union waste management hierarchy, waste prevention should be the prioritized strategy to decrease the environmental burdens from all solid waste management. The aim of the present study was therefore to investigate the potential for food waste minimization among Swedish households through an investigation of the amount of avoidable food waste currently disposed of. A further aim was to investigate the effect on the national biogas production potential through anaerobic digestion of food waste, considering minimization potentials. A method for waste composition analyses of household food waste, where a differentiation between avoidable and unavoidable food waste is made, was used in a total of 24 waste composition analyses of household waste from Swedish residential areas. The total household food waste generation reached 3.4 kg (household and week)(-1), on average, of which 34% is avoidable. The theoretical methane (CH4) potential in unavoidable food waste reached 442 Ndm(3) (kg VS)(-1) or 128 Nm(3) tonne(-1) wet waste, while the measured (mesophilic CH4 batch tests) CH4 production reached 399 Ndm(3) (kg VS)(-1), which is lower than several previous assessments of CH4 production from household food waste. According to this study the combination of a decrease in food waste generation-in case of successful minimization-and decreased CH4 production from unavoidable food waste will thus result in lower total potential energy recovery from household food waste through anaerobic digestion CH4 potential than previously stated.

  8. Quantifying the time lag between organic matter production and export in the surface ocean: Implications for estimates of export efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stange, P.; Bach, L. T.; Le Moigne, F. A. C.; Taucher, J.; Boxhammer, T.; Riebesell, U.

    2017-01-01

    The ocean's potential to export carbon to depth partly depends on the fraction of primary production (PP) sinking out of the euphotic zone (i.e., the e-ratio). Measurements of PP and export flux are often performed simultaneously in the field, although there is a temporal delay between those parameters. Thus, resulting e-ratio estimates often incorrectly assume an instantaneous downward export of PP to export flux. Evaluating results from four mesocosm studies, we find that peaks in organic matter sedimentation lag chlorophyll a peaks by 2 to 15 days. We discuss the implications of these time lags (TLs) for current e-ratio estimates and evaluate potential controls of TL. Our analysis reveals a strong correlation between TL and the duration of chlorophyll a buildup, indicating a dependency of TL on plankton food web dynamics. This study is one step further toward time-corrected e-ratio estimates.

  9. The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model estimates biofuel feedstock crop production across diverse agro-ecological zones within the state, under different future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kaffka, S.; Jenner, M.; Bucaram, S.; George, N.

    2012-12-01

    Both regulators and businesses need realistic estimates for the potential production of biomass feedstocks for biofuels and bioproducts. This includes the need to understand how climate change will affect mid-tem and longer-term crop performance and relative advantage. The California Biomass Crop Adoption Model is a partial mathematical programming optimization model that estimates the profit level needed for new crop adoption, and the crop(s) displaced when a biomass feedstock crop is added to the state's diverse set of cropping systems, in diverse regions of the state. Both yield and crop price, as elements of profit, can be varied. Crop adoption is tested against current farmer preferences derived from analysis of 10 years crop production data for all crops produced in California, collected by the California Department of Pesticide Regulation. Analysis of this extensive data set resulted in 45 distinctive, representative farming systems distributed across the state's diverse agro-ecological regions. Estimated yields and water use are derived from field trials combined with crop simulation, reported elsewhere. Crop simulation is carried out under different weather and climate assumptions. Besides crop adoption and displacement, crop resource use is also accounted, derived from partial budgets used for each crop's cost of production. Systematically increasing biofuel crop price identified areas of the state where different types of crops were most likely to be adopted. Oilseed crops like canola that can be used for biodiesel production had the greatest potential to be grown in the Sacramento Valley and other northern regions, while sugar beets (for ethanol) had the greatest potential in the northern San Joaquin Valley region, and sweet sorghum in the southern San Joaquin Valley. Up to approximately 10% of existing annual cropland in California was available for new crop adoption. New crops are adopted if the entire cropping system becomes more profitable. In

  10. Kernel PLS Estimation of Single-trial Event-related Potentials

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rosipal, Roman; Trejo, Leonard J.

    2004-01-01

    Nonlinear kernel partial least squaes (KPLS) regressior, is a novel smoothing approach to nonparametric regression curve fitting. We have developed a KPLS approach to the estimation of single-trial event related potentials (ERPs). For improved accuracy of estimation, we also developed a local KPLS method for situations in which there exists prior knowledge about the approximate latency of individual ERP components. To assess the utility of the KPLS approach, we compared non-local KPLS and local KPLS smoothing with other nonparametric signal processing and smoothing methods. In particular, we examined wavelet denoising, smoothing splines, and localized smoothing splines. We applied these methods to the estimation of simulated mixtures of human ERPs and ongoing electroencephalogram (EEG) activity using a dipole simulator (BESA). In this scenario we considered ongoing EEG to represent spatially and temporally correlated noise added to the ERPs. This simulation provided a reasonable but simplified model of real-world ERP measurements. For estimation of the simulated single-trial ERPs, local KPLS provided a level of accuracy that was comparable with or better than the other methods. We also applied the local KPLS method to the estimation of human ERPs recorded in an experiment on co,onitive fatigue. For these data, the local KPLS method provided a clear improvement in visualization of single-trial ERPs as well as their averages. The local KPLS method may serve as a new alternative to the estimation of single-trial ERPs and improvement of ERP averages.

  11. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The set of commercially available chemical substances in commerce that may have significant global warming potential (GWP) is not well defined. Although there are currently over 200 chemicals with high GWP reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization, or Environmental Protection Agency, there may be hundreds of additional chemicals that may also have significant GWP. Evaluation of various approaches to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) and atmospheric lifetime will help to refine GWP estimates for compounds where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study compares values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical compounds against the best available values. It is important to assess the reliability of the underlying computational methods for computing RE to understand the sources of deviations from the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models. The values derived using these models are found to be in reasonable agreement with reported RE values (though significant improvement is obtained through scaling). The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is also discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed values of RE in this study. Deviations of

  12. Solar and Net Radiation for Estimating Potential Evaporation from Three Vegetation Canopies

    Treesearch

    D.M. Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; G.W. Cheschier; G.P. Fernandez

    2000-01-01

    Solar and net radiation data are frequent/y used in estimating potential evaporation (PE) from various vegetative surfaces needed for water balance and hydrologic modeling studies. Weather parameters such as air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation, and net radiation have been continuously monitored using automated sensors to estimate PE for...

  13. Estimation of the radon production rate in granite rocks and evaluation of the implications for geogenic radon potential maps: A case study in Central Portugal.

    PubMed

    Pereira, A; Lamas, R; Miranda, M; Domingos, F; Neves, L; Ferreira, N; Costa, L

    2017-01-01

    The goal of this study was to estimate radon gas production rate in granitic rocks and identify the factors responsible for the observed variability. For this purpose, 180 samples were collected from pre-Hercynian and Hercynian rocks in north and central Portugal and analysed for a) 226 Ra activity, b) radon ( 222 Rn) per unit mass activity, and c) radon gas emanation coefficient. On a subset of representative samples from the same rock types were also measured d) apparent porosity and e) apparent density. For each of these variables, the values ranged as follows: a) 15 to 587 Bq kg -1 , b) 2 to 73 Bq kg -1 , c) 0.01 to 0.80, d) 0.3 to 11.4 % and e) 2530 to 2850 kg m -3 . Radon production rate varied between 40 to 1386 Bq m -3  h -1 . The variability observed was associated with geologically late processes of low and high temperature which led to the alteration of the granitic rock with mobilization of U and increase in radon 222 Rn gas emanation. It is suggested that, when developing geogenic radon potential maps, data on uranium concentration in soils/altered rock should be used, rather than data obtained from unaltered rock. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Estimation of the membrane potential of cultured macrophages from the fast potential transient upon microelectrode entry

    PubMed Central

    Ince, C; Ypey, DL; Van Furth, R; Verveen, AA

    1983-01-01

    Analysis of membrane potential recordings upon microelectrode impalement of four types of macrophages (cell lines P388D1 and PU5-1.8, cultured mouse peritoneal macrophages, and cultured human monocytes) reveals that these cells have membrane potentials at least two times more negative than sustained potential values (E(s)) frequently reported. Upon microelectrode entry into the cell (P388D1), the recorded potential drops to a peak value (E(p)) (mean -37 mV for 50 cells, range -15 to -70 mV) within 2 ms, after which it decays to a depolarized potential (E(n)) (mean -12 mV) in about 20 ms. Thereafter, the membrane develops one or a series of slow hyperpolarizations before a final sustained membrane potential (E(s)) (mean -14 mV, range -5 to -40) is established. The mean value of the peak of the first hyperpolarization (E(h)) is -30 mV (range -10 to -55 mV). The initial fast peak transient, measured upon microelectrode entry, was first described and analyzed by Lassen et al. (Lassen, U.V., A.M. T. Nielson, L. Pape, and L. O. Simonsen, 1971, J. Membr. Biol. 6:269-288 for other change in the membrane potential from its real value before impalement to a sustained depolarized value. This was shown to be true for macrophages by two-electrode impalements of single cells. Values of E(p), E(n), E(h), E(s), and membrane resistance (R(m)) measured for the other macrophages were similar to those of P388D1. From these results we conclude that E(p) is a better estimate of the true membrane potential of macrophages than E(s), and that the slow hyperpolarizations upon impalement should be regarded as transient repolarizations back to the original membrane potentials. Thus, analysis of the initial fast impalement transient can be a valuable aid in the estimation of the membrane potential of various sorts of small isolated cells by microelectrodes. PMID:6833384

  15. Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) manufacturing of advanced therapy medicinal products: a novel tailored model for optimizing performance and estimating costs.

    PubMed

    Abou-El-Enein, Mohamed; Römhild, Andy; Kaiser, Daniel; Beier, Carola; Bauer, Gerhard; Volk, Hans-Dieter; Reinke, Petra

    2013-03-01

    Advanced therapy medicinal products (ATMP) have gained considerable attention in academia due to their therapeutic potential. Good Manufacturing Practice (GMP) principles ensure the quality and sterility of manufacturing these products. We developed a model for estimating the manufacturing costs of cell therapy products and optimizing the performance of academic GMP-facilities. The "Clean-Room Technology Assessment Technique" (CTAT) was tested prospectively in the GMP facility of BCRT, Berlin, Germany, then retrospectively in the GMP facility of the University of California-Davis, California, USA. CTAT is a two-level model: level one identifies operational (core) processes and measures their fixed costs; level two identifies production (supporting) processes and measures their variable costs. The model comprises several tools to measure and optimize performance of these processes. Manufacturing costs were itemized using adjusted micro-costing system. CTAT identified GMP activities with strong correlation to the manufacturing process of cell-based products. Building best practice standards allowed for performance improvement and elimination of human errors. The model also demonstrated the unidirectional dependencies that may exist among the core GMP activities. When compared to traditional business models, the CTAT assessment resulted in a more accurate allocation of annual expenses. The estimated expenses were used to set a fee structure for both GMP facilities. A mathematical equation was also developed to provide the final product cost. CTAT can be a useful tool in estimating accurate costs for the ATMPs manufactured in an optimized GMP process. These estimates are useful when analyzing the cost-effectiveness of these novel interventions. Copyright © 2013 International Society for Cellular Therapy. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. 75 FR 27574 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Comment Request for the Production Estimate, Quarterly...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-05-17

    ... Request for the Production Estimate, Quarterly Construction Sand and Gravel and Crushed and Broken Stone... Production Estimate, Quarterly Construction Sand and Gravel and Crushed and Broken Stone. This collection... Construction Sand and Gravel and Crushed and Broken Stone. Type of Request: Extension of a currently approved...

  17. Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, M., II; Yuan, W.; Dong, J.; Zhang, F.; Cai, W.; Li, H.

    2017-12-01

    Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from twelve eddy covariance (EC) sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. The EC-LUE model explained 85.4% of the daily observed GPP variations through all of the twelve EC sites, and characterized very well the seasonal changes of GPP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature TA increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and PREC changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.

  18. Estimating sugarcane yield potential using an in-season determination of normalized difference vegetative index.

    PubMed

    Lofton, Josh; Tubana, Brenda S; Kanke, Yumiko; Teboh, Jasper; Viator, Howard; Dalen, Marilyn

    2012-01-01

    Estimating crop yield using remote sensing techniques has proven to be successful. However, sugarcane possesses unique characteristics; such as, a multi-year cropping cycle and plant height-limiting for midseason fertilizer application timing. Our study objective was to determine if sugarcane yield potential could be estimated using an in-season estimation of normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI). Sensor readings were taken using the GreenSeeker® handheld sensor from 2008 to 2011 in St. Gabriel and Jeanerette, LA, USA. In-season estimates of yield (INSEY) values were calculated by dividing NDVI by thermal variables. Optimum timing for estimating sugarcane yield was between 601-750 GDD. In-season estimated yield values improved the yield potential (YP) model compared to using NDVI. Generally, INSEY value showed a positive exponential relationship with yield (r(2) values 0.48 and 0.42 for cane tonnage and sugar yield, respectively). When models were separated based on canopy structure there was an increase the strength of the relationship for the erectophile varieties (r(2) 0.53 and 0.47 for cane tonnage and sugar yield, respectively); however, the model for planophile varieties weakened slightly. Results of this study indicate using an INSEY value for predicting sugarcane yield shows potential of being a valuable management tool for sugarcane producers in Louisiana.

  19. Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

  20. Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

  1. Using sightability-adjusted brood-pair ratios to estimate waterfowl productivity

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pagano, Anthony M.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Pieron, Matthew R.; Arnold, Todd W.; Kimmel, Timothy C.

    2014-01-01

    Historically, biologists used brood-pair ratios (BPRs) as an index to waterfowl productivity to help guide management decisions and evaluate conservation practices. However, BPRs are biased by imperfect detection probabilities, especially for broods. We conducted roadside surveys for breeding waterfowl pairs on 7–8 study sites in the springs of 2006–2008 in northeastern North Dakota, USA. Later each year, we conducted replicate counts of broods on the same wetlands and used mark–recapture methods to estimate sightability-adjusted BPRs (SA-BPRs). Traditional roadside brood surveys detected only 30–45% of the available broods, depending on species. We explored the potential for using SA-BPRs to measure hen success (i.e., the probability a female hatches ≥1 egg across all nesting attempts) for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and other upland-nesting dabbling ducks (Anas spp.). We found that SA-BPRs explained 40% of the variation in hen success over 5 species of dabbling ducks, and we were able to detect an effect of predator reduction on hen success in combined dabblers, but not in mallards alone. However, we found no relationship between SA-BPRs and mallard fledging rates (hen success × initial brood size × duckling survival). Our results suggest that SA-BPRs can provide a cost-effective alternative to traditional measures of productivity such as nesting success, but not to measures of duckling survival. Nevertheless, SA-BPRs may be useful in areas where traditional measures of waterfowl productivity are logistically or financially challenging.

  2. Combining LIDAR estimates of aboveground biomass and Landsat estimates of stand age for spatially extensive validation of modeled forest productivity.

    Treesearch

    M.A. Lefsky; D.P. Turner; M. Guzy; W.B. Cohen

    2005-01-01

    Extensive estimates of forest productivity are required to understand the relationships between shifting land use, changing climate and carbon storage and fluxes. Aboveground net primary production of wood (NPPAw) is a major component of total NPP and of net ecosystem production (NEP). Remote sensing of NPP and NPPAw is...

  3. Estimators of primary production for interpretation of remotely sensed data on ocean color

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Platt, Trevor; Sathyendranath, Shubha

    1993-01-01

    The theoretical basis is explained for some commonly used estimators of daily primary production in a vertically uniform water column. These models are recast into a canonical form, with dimensionless arguments, to facilitate comparison with each other and with an analytic solution. The limitations of each model are examined. The values of the photoadaptation parameter I(k) observed in the ocean are analyzed, and I(k) is used as a scale to normalize the surface irradiance. The range of this scaled irradiance is presented. An equation is given for estimation of I(k) from recent light history. It is shown how the models for water column production can be adapted for estimation of the production in finite layers. The distinctions between model formulation, model implementation and model evaluation are discussed. Recommendations are given on the choice of algorithm for computation of daily production according to the degree of approximation acceptable in the result.

  4. Estimating the duration of intracellular action potentials in muscle fibres from single-fibre extracellular potentials.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez, Javier; Navallas, Javier; Gila, Luis; Dimitrova, Nonna Alexandrovna; Malanda, Armando

    2011-04-30

    In situ recording of the intracellular action potential (IAP) of human muscle fibres is not yet possible, and consequently, knowledge concerning certain IAP characteristics is still limited. According to the core-conductor theory, close to a fibre, a single fibre action potential (SFAP) can be assumed to be proportional to the IAP second derivative. Thus, we might expect to be able to derive some characteristics of the IAP, such as the duration of its spike, from the SFAP waveform. However, SFAP properties not only depend on the IAP shape but also on the fibre-to-electrode (radial) distance and other physiological properties of the fibre. In this paper we, first, propose an SFAP parameter (the negative phase duration, NPD) appropriate for estimating the IAP spike duration and, second, show that this parameter is largely independent of changes in radial distance and muscle fibre propagation velocity. Estimation of the IAP spike duration from a direct measurement taken from the SFAP waveform provides a possible way to enhance the accuracy of SFAP models. Because IAP spike duration is known to be sensitive to the effects of fatigue and calcium accumulation, the proposed SFAP parameter, the NPD, has potential value in electrodiagnosis and as an indicator of IAP profile changes due to peripheral fatigue. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Estimating the production, consumption and export of cannabis: The Dutch case.

    PubMed

    van der Giessen, Mark; van Ooyen-Houben, Marianne M J; Moolenaar, Debora E G

    2016-05-01

    Quantifying an illegal phenomenon like a drug market is inherently complex due to its hidden nature and the limited availability of reliable information. This article presents findings from a recent estimate of the production, consumption and export of Dutch cannabis and discusses the opportunities provided by, and limitations of, mathematical models for estimating the illegal cannabis market. The data collection consisted of a comprehensive literature study, secondary analyses on data from available registrations (2012-2014) and previous studies, and expert opinion. The cannabis market was quantified with several mathematical models. The data analysis included a Monte Carlo simulation to come to a 95% interval estimate (IE) and a sensitivity analysis to identify the most influential indicators. The annual production of Dutch cannabis was estimated to be between 171 and 965tons (95% IE of 271-613tons). The consumption was estimated to be between 28 and 119tons, depending on the inclusion or exclusion of non-residents (95% IE of 51-78tons or 32-49tons respectively). The export was estimated to be between 53 and 937tons (95% IE of 206-549tons or 231-573tons, respectively). Mathematical models are valuable tools for the systematic assessment of the size of illegal markets and determining the uncertainty inherent in the estimates. The estimates required the use of many assumptions and the availability of reliable indicators was limited. This uncertainty is reflected in the wide ranges of the estimates. The estimates are sensitive to 10 of the 45 indicators. These 10 account for 86-93% of the variation found. Further research should focus on improving the variables and the independence of the mathematical models. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. User's guide: Nimbus-7 Earth radiation budget narrow-field-of-view products. Scene radiance tape products, sorting into angular bins products, and maximum likelihood cloud estimation products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kyle, H. Lee; Hucek, Richard R.; Groveman, Brian; Frey, Richard

    1990-01-01

    The archived Earth radiation budget (ERB) products produced from the Nimbus-7 ERB narrow field-of-view scanner are described. The principal products are broadband outgoing longwave radiation (4.5 to 50 microns), reflected solar radiation (0.2 to 4.8 microns), and the net radiation. Daily and monthly averages are presented on a fixed global equal area (500 sq km), grid for the period May 1979 to May 1980. Two independent algorithms are used to estimate the outgoing fluxes from the observed radiances. The algorithms are described and the results compared. The products are divided into three subsets: the Scene Radiance Tapes (SRT) contain the calibrated radiances; the Sorting into Angular Bins (SAB) tape contains the SAB produced shortwave, longwave, and net radiation products; and the Maximum Likelihood Cloud Estimation (MLCE) tapes contain the MLCE products. The tape formats are described in detail.

  7. Estimating the Enduring Effects of Fertiliser Subsidies on Commercial Fertiliser Demand and Maize Production: Panel Data Evidence from Malawi.

    PubMed

    Ricker-Gilbert, Jacob; Jayne, T S

    2017-02-01

    Most studies of input subsidy programmes confine their analyses to measuring programme effects over a one-year period. This article estimates the potential longer-run or enduring effects of fertiliser subsidy programmes on smallholder farm households' demand for commercial fertiliser and maize production over time. We use four waves of panel data on 462 farm households in Malawi for whom fertiliser use can be tracked for eight consecutive seasons between 2003/2004 and 2010/2011. Panel estimation methods are used to control for potential endogeneity of subsidised fertiliser acquisition. Results indicate that farmers acquiring subsidised fertiliser in three consecutive prior years are found to purchase slightly more commercial fertiliser in the next year. This suggests a small amount of crowding in of commercial fertiliser from the receipt of subsidised fertiliser in prior years. In addition, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in a given year has a modest positive impact on increasing maize output in that same year. However, acquiring subsidised fertiliser in multiple prior years generates no statistically significant effect on maize output in the current year. These findings indicate that potential enduring effects of the Malawi fertiliser subsidy programme on maize production are limited. Additional interventions that increase soil fertility can make using inorganic fertiliser more profitable and sustainable for smallholders in sub-Saharan Africa and thereby increase the cost-effectiveness of input subsidy programmes.

  8. Estimation of potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas using topographic and soil information

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    1999-01-01

    Digital topographic and soil information was used to estimate potential runoff-contributing areas throughout Kansas. The results then were used to compare 91 selected subbasins representing soil, slope, and runoff variability. Potential runoff-contributing areas were estimated collectively for the processes of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess overland flow using a set of environmental conditions that represented very high, high, moderate, low, very low, and extremely low potential runoff. For infiltration-excess overland flow, various rainfall-intensity and soil-permeability values were used. For saturation-excess overland flow, antecedent soil-moisture conditions and a topographic wetness index were used. Results indicated that very low potential-runoff conditions provided the best ability to distinguish the 91 selected subbasins as having relatively high or low potential runoff. The majority of the subbasins with relatively high potential runoff are located in the eastern half of the State where soil permeability generally is less and precipitation typically is greater. The ability to distinguish the subbasins as having relatively high or low potential runoff was possible mostly due to the variability of soil permeability across the State.

  9. Potential effects of sulfur pollutants on grape production in New York State

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Viessman, S.M.; Knudson, D.A.; Streets, D.G.

    1982-08-01

    The purpose was to design and carry out a prototype assessment of the potential effects of sulfur pollutants on a crop of local economic significance; and, to identify the adequacy of existing research data and other information for quantifying the possible extent of adverse effects of such pollutants. Grape production in New York State was selected for this prototype assessment. The prototype assessment attempts to translate the emission characteristics of sources of sulfur pollutants into ambient concentrations of the pollutants in the vicinity of grape-producing regions. The ambient data are then compared with available dose-response data to estimate the potentialmore » effects on the grape crop.« less

  10. The model for estimation production cost of embroidery handicraft

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nofierni; Sriwana, IK; Septriani, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Embroidery industry is one of type of micro industry that produce embroidery handicraft. These industries are emerging in some rural areas of Indonesia. Embroidery clothing are produce such as scarves and clothes that show cultural value of certain region. The owner of an enterprise must calculate the cost of production before making a decision on how many products are received from the customer. A calculation approach to production cost analysis is needed to consider the feasibility of each order coming. This study is proposed to design the expert system (ES) in order to improve production management in the embroidery industry. The model will design used Fuzzy inference system as a model to estimate production cost. Research conducted based on survey and knowledge acquisitions from stakeholder of supply chain embroidery handicraft industry at Bukittinggi, West Sumatera, Indonesia. This paper will use fuzzy input where the quality, the complexity of the design and the working hours required and the result of the model are useful to manage production cost on embroidery production.

  11. Biogas production from Pongamia biomass wastes and a model to estimate biodegradability from their composition.

    PubMed

    Gunaseelan, Victor Nallathambi

    2014-02-01

    In this study, I investigated the chemical characteristics, biochemical methane potential, conversion kinetics and biodegradability of untreated and NaOH-treated Pongamia plant parts, and pod husk and press cake from the biodiesel industry to evaluate their suitability as an alternative feedstock for biogas production. The untreated Pongamia seeds exhibited the maximum CH4 yield of 473 ml g (-1) volatile solid (VS) added. Yellow, withered leaves gave a yield as low as 122 ml CH4 g (-1) VS added. There were significant variations in the CH4 production rate constants, which ranged from 0.02 to 0.15 d (-1), and biodegradability, which ranged from 0.25 to 0.98. NaOH treatment of leaf and pod husk, which were highly rich in fibers, increased the yields by 15-22% and CH4 production rate constants by 20-75%. Utilization of Pongamia wastes in biogas digesters not only influences the economics of biodiesel production but also yields CH4 fuel and protects the environment. The experimental data from this study were used to develop a multiple regression model, which could estimate biodegradability based on biochemical characteristics. The model predicted the biodegradability of previously published biomass wastes (r(2) = 0.88) from their biochemical composition. The theoretical CH4 yields estimated as 350 ml g(-1) chemical oxygen demand destroyed are much higher than the experimental yields as 100% biodegradability is assumed for each substrate. Upon correcting the theoretical CH4 yields with biodegradability data obtained from chemical analyses of substrates, their ultimate CH4 yields could be predicted rapidly.

  12. Phytoplankton Productivity in an Arctic Fjord (West Greenland): Estimating Electron Requirements for Carbon Fixation and Oxygen Production

    PubMed Central

    Hancke, Kasper; Dalsgaard, Tage; Sejr, Mikael Kristian; Markager, Stiig; Glud, Ronnie Nøhr

    2015-01-01

    Accurate quantification of pelagic primary production is essential for quantifying the marine carbon turnover and the energy supply to the food web. Knowing the electron requirement (Κ) for carbon (C) fixation (Κ C) and oxygen (O2) production (Κ O2), variable fluorescence has the potential to quantify primary production in microalgae, and hereby increasing spatial and temporal resolution of measurements compared to traditional methods. Here we quantify Κ C and Κ O2 through measures of Pulse Amplitude Modulated (PAM) fluorometry, C fixation and O2 production in an Arctic fjord (Godthåbsfjorden, W Greenland). Through short- (2h) and long-term (24h) experiments, rates of electron transfer (ETRPSII), C fixation and/or O2 production were quantified and compared. Absolute rates of ETR were derived by accounting for Photosystem II light absorption and spectral light composition. Two-hour incubations revealed a linear relationship between ETRPSII and gross 14C fixation (R2 = 0.81) during light-limited photosynthesis, giving a Κ C of 7.6 ± 0.6 (mean ± S.E.) mol é (mol C)−1. Diel net rates also demonstrated a linear relationship between ETRPSII and C fixation giving a Κ C of 11.2 ± 1.3 mol é (mol C)−1 (R2 = 0.86). For net O2 production the electron requirement was lower than for net C fixation giving 6.5 ± 0.9 mol é (mol O2)−1 (R2 = 0.94). This, however, still is an electron requirement 1.6 times higher than the theoretical minimum for O2 production [i.e. 4 mol é (mol O2)−1]. The discrepancy is explained by respiratory activity and non-photochemical electron requirements and the variability is discussed. In conclusion, the bio-optical method and derived electron requirement support conversion of ETR to units of C or O2, paving the road for improved spatial and temporal resolution of primary production estimates. PMID:26218096

  13. Contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas emissions. An estimation based on typical farms.

    PubMed

    Hagemann, Martin; Ndambi, Asaah; Hemme, Torsten; Latacz-Lohmann, Uwe

    2012-02-01

    Studies on the contribution of milk production to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are rare (FAO 2010) and often based on crude data which do not appropriately reflect the heterogeneity of farming systems. This article estimates GHG emissions from milk production in different dairy regions of the world based on a harmonised farm data and assesses the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions. The methodology comprises three elements: (1) the International Farm Comparison Network (IFCN) concept of typical farms and the related globally standardised dairy model farms representing 45 dairy regions in 38 countries; (2) a partial life cycle assessment model for estimating GHG emissions of the typical dairy farms; and (3) standard regression analysis to estimate GHG emissions from milk production in countries for which no typical farms are available in the IFCN database. Across the 117 typical farms in the 38 countries analysed, the average emission rate is 1.50 kg CO(2) equivalents (CO(2)-eq.)/kg milk. The contribution of milk production to the global anthropogenic emissions is estimated at 1.3 Gt CO(2)-eq./year, accounting for 2.65% of total global anthropogenic emissions (49 Gt; IPCC, Synthesis Report for Policy Maker, Valencia, Spain, 2007). We emphasise that our estimates of the contribution of milk production to global GHG emissions are subject to uncertainty. Part of the uncertainty stems from the choice of the appropriate methods for estimating emissions at the level of the individual animal.

  14. An estimation of the artisanal small-scale production of gold in the world.

    PubMed

    Seccatore, Jacopo; Veiga, Marcello; Origliasso, Chiara; Marin, Tatiane; De Tomi, Giorgio

    2014-10-15

    The increase in gold price of over 400% between 2002 and 2012, due to a shift towards safe investments in a period of crisis in the global economy, created a rapid increase in gold production. A response to this shift in production was observed for artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) units in remote locations of the world, but this phenomenon has not been quantified yet. The work presented here was done to provide a quantitative tool for estimation of the gold (Au) produced by ASM and the population of workers involved in the production process, and assessment of mercury (Hg) consumed. The following hypotheses were addressed: i) It is possible to estimate, on first approximation, the amount of Au production in the world by artisanal mining; ii) Au production by artisanal mining varies by country and continent and iii) Hg consumption due to ASM can be correlated with the methods applied in the different countries and continents for the production of Au. To do this we estimated the number of miners, calculated the change in Au price and production and then applied an adjustment factor to calculate Hg production by country and continent. The amount of Au produced depends on technology of the miners by continents (highest in South America, medium in Asia and Central America, and lowest in Africa), and the geologic setting (not investigated here). The results of the estimation show that, as of 2011, over 16 million Artisanal Miners, in the world, were involved in gold extraction (mining or treatment), producing between 380 and 450 t of gold per year, with clear global behavior between the continents in terms of recovery efficiency, confirmed by data on Hg release that is higher in countries with lower technology. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Seed production estimation for mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. vaseyana)

    Treesearch

    Melissa L. Landeen; Loreen Allphin; Stanley G. Kitchen; Steven L. Petersen

    2017-01-01

    Seed production is an essential component of postdisturbance recovery for mountain big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata Nutt. ssp vaseyana [Rydb] Beetle; MBS). We tested a method for rapid estimation of MBS seed production using measurements of inflorescence morphology. We measured total stem length, stem length from first branchlet to stem tip, stem diameter, fresh...

  16. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Zhu; Guan, Dabo; Wei, Wei; Davis, Steven J; Ciais, Philippe; Bai, Jin; Peng, Shushi; Zhang, Qiang; Hubacek, Klaus; Marland, Gregg; Andres, Robert J; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Lin, Jintai; Zhao, Hongyan; Hong, Chaopeng; Boden, Thomas A; Feng, Kuishuang; Peters, Glen P; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Junguo; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Yu; Zeng, Ning; He, Kebin

    2015-08-20

    Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

  17. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Zhu; Guan, Dabo; Wei, Wei; Davis, Steven J.; Ciais, Philippe; Bai, Jin; Peng, Shushi; Zhang, Qiang; Hubacek, Klaus; Marland, Gregg; Andres, Robert J.; Crawford-Brown, Douglas; Lin, Jintai; Zhao, Hongyan; Hong, Chaopeng; Boden, Thomas A.; Feng, Kuishuang; Peters, Glen P.; Xi, Fengming; Liu, Junguo; Li, Yuan; Zhao, Yu; Zeng, Ning; He, Kebin

    2015-08-01

    Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China's total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China's carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption and clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000-2012 than the value reported by China's national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China's cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China's CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = +/-7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China's cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China's emissions in 2000-2013 may be larger than China's estimated total forest sink in 1990-2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China's land carbon sink in 2000-2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).

  18. Biogeochemical modelling vs. tree-ring data - comparison of forest ecosystem productivity estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zorana Ostrogović Sever, Maša; Barcza, Zoltán; Hidy, Dóra; Paladinić, Elvis; Kern, Anikó; Marjanović, Hrvoje

    2017-04-01

    Forest ecosystems are sensitive to environmental changes as well as human-induce disturbances, therefore process-based models with integrated management modules represent valuable tool for estimating and forecasting forest ecosystem productivity under changing conditions. Biogeochemical model Biome-BGC simulates carbon, nitrogen and water fluxes, and it is widely used for different terrestrial ecosystems. It was modified and parameterised by many researchers in the past to meet the specific local conditions. In this research, we used recently published improved version of the model Biome-BGCMuSo (BBGCMuSo), with multilayer soil module and integrated management module. The aim of our research is to validate modelling results of forest ecosystem productivity (NPP) from BBGCMuSo model with observed productivity estimated from an extensive dataset of tree-rings. The research was conducted in two distinct forest complexes of managed Pedunculate oak in SE Europe (Croatia), namely Pokupsko basin and Spačva basin. First, we parameterized BBGCMuSo model at a local level using eddy-covariance (EC) data from Jastrebarsko EC site. Parameterized model was used for the assessment of productivity on a larger scale. Results of NPP assessment with BBGCMuSo are compared with NPP estimated from tree ring data taken from trees on over 100 plots in both forest complexes. Keywords: Biome-BGCMuSo, forest productivity, model parameterization, NPP, Pedunculate oak

  19. Historical U.S. cropland areas and the potential for bioenergy production on abandoned croplands.

    PubMed

    Zumkehr, A; Campbell, J E

    2013-04-16

    Agriculture is historically a dominant form of global environmental degradation, and the potential for increased future degradation may be driven by growing demand for food and biofuels. While these impacts have been explored using global gridded maps of croplands, such maps are based on relatively coarse spatial data. Here, we apply high-resolution cropland inventories for the conterminous U.S. with a land-use model to develop historical gridded cropland areas for the years 1850-2000 and year 2000 abandoned cropland maps. While the historical cropland maps are consistent with generally accepted land-use trends, our U.S. abandoned cropland estimates of 68 Mha are as much as 70% larger than previous gridded estimates due to a reduction in aggregation effects. Renewed cultivation on the subset of abandoned croplands that have not become forests or urban lands represents one approach to mitigating the future expansion of agriculture. Potential bioenergy production from these abandoned lands using a wide range of biomass yields and conversion efficiencies has an upper-limit of 5-30% of the current U.S. primary energy demand or 4-30% of the current U.S. liquid fuel demand.

  20. Improved estimations of gross primary production using satellite-derived photosynthetically active radiation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Wenwen; Yuan, Wenping; Liang, Shunlin; Zhang, Xiaotong; Dong, Wenjie; Xia, Jiangzhou; Fu, Yang; Chen, Yang; Liu, Dan; Zhang, Qiang

    2014-01-01

    Terrestrial vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable in determining the global carbon cycle as well as the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The accuracy of GPP simulation is substantially affected by several critical model drivers, one of the most important of which is photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) which directly determines the photosynthesis processes of plants. In this study, we examined the impacts of uncertainties in radiation products on GPP estimates in China. Two satellite-based radiation products (GLASS and ISCCP), three reanalysis products (MERRA, ECMWF, and NCEP), and a blended product of reanalysis and observations (Princeton) were evaluated based on observations at hundreds of sites. The results revealed the highest accuracy for two satellite-based products over various temporal and spatial scales. The three reanalysis products and the Princeton product tended to overestimate radiation. The GPP simulation driven by the GLASS product exhibited the highest consistency with those derived from site observations. Model validation at 11 eddy covariance sites suggested the highest model performance when utilizing the GLASS product. Annual GPP in China driven by GLASS was 5.55 Pg C yr-1, which was 68.85%-94.87% of those derived from the other products. The results implied that the high spatial resolution, satellite-derived GLASS PAR significantly decreased the uncertainty of the GPP estimates at the regional scale.

  1. Estimating Subglottal Pressure from Neck-Surface Acceleration during Normal Voice Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fryd, Amanda S.; Van Stan, Jarrad H.; Hillman, Robert E.; Mehta, Daryush D.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the potential for estimating subglottal air pressure using a neck-surface accelerometer and to compare the accuracy of predicting subglottal air pressure relative to predicting acoustic sound pressure level (SPL). Method: Indirect estimates of subglottal pressure (P[subscript sg]') were obtained…

  2. Health impact assessment of a skin sensitizer: Analysis of potential policy measures aimed at reducing geraniol concentrations in personal care products and household cleaning products.

    PubMed

    Jongeneel, W P; Delmaar, J E; Bokkers, B G H

    2018-06-08

    A methodology to assess the health impact of skin sensitizers is introduced, which consists of the comparison of the probabilistic aggregated exposure with a probabilistic (individual) human sensitization or elicitation induction dose. The health impact of potential policy measures aimed at reducing the concentration of a fragrance allergen, geraniol, in consumer products is analysed in a simulated population derived from multiple product use surveys. Our analysis shows that current dermal exposure to geraniol from personal care and household cleaning products lead to new cases of contact allergy and induce clinical symptoms for those already sensitized. We estimate that this exposure results yearly in 34 new cases of geraniol contact allergy per million consumers in Western and Northern Europe, mainly due to exposure to household cleaning products. About twice as many consumers (60 per million) are projected to suffer from clinical symptoms due to re-exposure to geraniol. Policy measures restricting geraniol concentrations to <0.01% will noticeably reduce new cases of sensitization and decrease the number of people with clinical symptoms as well as the frequency of occurrence of these clinical symptoms. The estimated numbers should be interpreted with caution and provide only a rough indication of the health impact. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  3. Estimating and validating harvesting system production through computer simulation

    Treesearch

    John E. Baumgras; Curt C. Hassler; Chris B. LeDoux

    1993-01-01

    A Ground Based Harvesting System Simulation model (GB-SIM) has been developed to estimate stump-to-truck production rates and multiproduct yields for conventional ground-based timber harvesting systems in Appalachian hardwood stands. Simulation results reflect inputs that define harvest site and timber stand attributes, wood utilization options, and key attributes of...

  4. Liposome production by microfluidics: potential and limiting factors.

    PubMed

    Carugo, Dario; Bottaro, Elisabetta; Owen, Joshua; Stride, Eleanor; Nastruzzi, Claudio

    2016-05-19

    This paper provides an analysis of microfluidic techniques for the production of nanoscale lipid-based vesicular systems. In particular we focus on the key issues associated with the microfluidic production of liposomes. These include, but are not limited to, the role of lipid formulation, lipid concentration, residual amount of solvent, production method (including microchannel architecture), and drug loading in determining liposome characteristics. Furthermore, we propose microfluidic architectures for the mass production of liposomes with a view to potential industrial translation of this technology.

  5. Estimation of Radiative Efficiency of Chemicals with Potentially Significant Global Warming Potential.

    PubMed

    Betowski, Don; Bevington, Charles; Allison, Thomas C

    2016-01-19

    Halogenated chemical substances are used in a broad array of applications, and new chemical substances are continually being developed and introduced into commerce. While recent research has considerably increased our understanding of the global warming potentials (GWPs) of multiple individual chemical substances, this research inevitably lags behind the development of new chemical substances. There are currently over 200 substances known to have high GWP. Evaluation of schemes to estimate radiative efficiency (RE) based on computational chemistry are useful where no measured IR spectrum is available. This study assesses the reliability of values of RE calculated using computational chemistry techniques for 235 chemical substances against the best available values. Computed vibrational frequency data is used to estimate RE values using several Pinnock-type models, and reasonable agreement with reported values is found. Significant improvement is obtained through scaling of both vibrational frequencies and intensities. The effect of varying the computational method and basis set used to calculate the frequency data is discussed. It is found that the vibrational intensities have a strong dependence on basis set and are largely responsible for differences in computed RE values.

  6. A Greenhouse Gas and Soil Carbon Model for Estimating the Carbon Footprint of Livestock Production in Canada

    PubMed Central

    Vergé, Xavier P.C.; Dyer, James A.; Worth, Devon E.; Smith, Ward N.; Desjardins, Raymond L.; McConkey, Brian G.

    2012-01-01

    Simple Summary We developed a model to estimate the carbon footprint of Canadian livestock production. To include long term soil carbon storage and loss potential we introduced a payback period concept. The model was tested by reallocating 10% only of the protein production from a ruminant to a non ruminant source to minimize the risk of including rangeland or marginal lands. This displacement generated residual land which was found to play a major role in the potential mitigation of GHG emissions. The model will allow land use policies aimed at reducing the agricultural GHG emissions to be assessed. Abstract To assess tradeoffs between environmental sustainability and changes in food production on agricultural land in Canada the Unified Livestock Industry and Crop Emissions Estimation System (ULICEES) was developed. It incorporates four livestock specific GHG assessments in a single model. To demonstrate the application of ULICEES, 10% of beef cattle protein production was assumed to be displaced with an equivalent amount of pork protein. Without accounting for the loss of soil carbon, this 10% shift reduced GHG emissions by 2.5 TgCO2e y−1. The payback period was defined as the number of years required for a GHG reduction to equal soil carbon lost from the associated land use shift. A payback period that is shorter than 40 years represents a net long term decrease in GHG emissions. Displacing beef cattle with hogs resulted in a surplus area of forage. When this residual land was left in ungrazed perennial forage, the payback periods were less than 4 years and when it was reseeded to annual crops, they were equal to or less than 40 years. They were generally greater than 40 years when this land was used to raise cattle. Agricultural GHG mitigation policies will inevitably involve a trade-off between production, land use and GHG emission reduction. ULICEES is a model that can objectively assess these trade-offs for Canadian agriculture. PMID:26487032

  7. Cost and price estimate of Brayton and Stirling engines in selected production volumes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fortgang, H. R.; Mayers, H. F.

    1980-01-01

    The methods used to determine the production costs and required selling price of Brayton and Stirling engines modified for use in solar power conversion units are presented. Each engine part, component and assembly was examined and evaluated to determine the costs of its material and the method of manufacture based on specific annual production volumes. Cost estimates are presented for both the Stirling and Brayton engines in annual production volumes of 1,000, 25,000, 100,000 and 400,000. At annual production volumes above 50,000 units, the costs of both engines are similar, although the Stirling engine costs are somewhat lower. It is concluded that modifications to both the Brayton and Stirling engine designs could reduce the estimated costs.

  8. Potential exposures and risks from beryllium-containing products.

    PubMed

    Willis, Henry H; Florig, H Keith

    2002-10-01

    Beryllium is the strongest of the lightweight metals. Used primarily in military applications prior to the end of the Cold War, beryllium is finding new applications in many commercial products, including computers, telecommunication equipment, and consumer and automotive electronics. The use of beryllium in nondefense consumer applications is of concern because beryllium is toxic. Inhalation of beryllium dust or vapor causes a chronic lung disease in some individuals at concentrations as low as 0.01 microg/m3 in air. As beryllium enters wider commerce, it is prudent to ask what risks this might present to the general public and to workers downstream of the beryllium materials industry. We address this question by evaluating the potential for beryllium exposure from the manufacturing, use, recycle, and disposal of beryllium-containing products. Combining a market study with a qualitative exposure analysis, we determine which beryllium applications and life cycle phases have the largest exposure potential. Our analysis suggests that use and maintenance of the most common types of beryllium-containing products do not result in any obvious exposures of concern, and that maintenance activities result in greater exposures than product use. Product disposal has potential to present significant individual risks, but uncertainties concerning current and future routes of product disposal make it difficult to be definitive. Overall, additional exposure and dose-response data are needed to evaluate both the health significance of many exposure scenarios, and the adequacy of existing regulations to protect workers and the public. Although public exposures to beryllium and public awareness and concern regarding beryllium risks are currently low, beryllium risks have psychometric qualities that may lead to rapidly heightened public concern.

  9. Estimating of gross primary production in an Amazon-Cerrado transitional forest using MODIS and Landsat imagery.

    PubMed

    Danelichen, Victor H M; Biudes, Marcelo S; Velasque, Maísa C S; Machado, Nadja G; Gomes, Raphael S R; Vourlitis, George L; Nogueira, José S

    2015-09-01

    The acceleration of the anthropogenic activity has increased the atmospheric carbon concentration, which causes changes in regional climate. The Gross Primary Production (GPP) is an important variable in the global carbon cycle studies, since it defines the atmospheric carbon extraction rate from terrestrial ecosystems. The objective of this study was to estimate the GPP of the Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by the Vegetation Photosynthesis Model (VPM) using local meteorological data and remote sensing data from MODIS and Landsat 5 TM reflectance from 2005 to 2008. The GPP was estimated using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) calculated by MODIS and Landsat 5 TM images. The GPP estimates were compared with measurements in a flux tower by eddy covariance. The GPP measured in the tower was consistent with higher values during the wet season and there was a trend to increase from 2005 to 2008. The GPP estimated by VPM showed the same increasing trend observed in measured GPP and had high correlation and Willmott's coefficient and low error metrics in comparison to measured GPP. These results indicated high potential of the Landsat 5 TM images to estimate the GPP of Amazon-Cerrado Transitional Forest by VPM.

  10. Liposome production by microfluidics: potential and limiting factors

    PubMed Central

    Carugo, Dario; Bottaro, Elisabetta; Owen, Joshua; Stride, Eleanor; Nastruzzi, Claudio

    2016-01-01

    This paper provides an analysis of microfluidic techniques for the production of nanoscale lipid-based vesicular systems. In particular we focus on the key issues associated with the microfluidic production of liposomes. These include, but are not limited to, the role of lipid formulation, lipid concentration, residual amount of solvent, production method (including microchannel architecture), and drug loading in determining liposome characteristics. Furthermore, we propose microfluidic architectures for the mass production of liposomes with a view to potential industrial translation of this technology. PMID:27194474

  11. Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Das, Adrian J.; Stephenson, Nathan L.

    2015-01-01

    Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth–mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

  12. Estimating the potential refolding yield of recombinant proteins expressed as inclusion bodies.

    PubMed

    Ho, Jason G S; Middelberg, Anton P J

    2004-09-05

    Recombinant protein production in bacteria is efficient except that insoluble inclusion bodies form when some gene sequences are expressed. Such proteins must undergo renaturation, which is an inefficient process due to protein aggregation on dilution from concentrated denaturant. In this study, the protein-protein interactions of eight distinct inclusion-body proteins are quantified, in different solution conditions, by measurement of protein second virial coefficients (SVCs). Protein solubility is shown to decrease as the SVC is reduced (i.e., as protein interactions become more attractive). Plots of SVC versus denaturant concentration demonstrate two clear groupings of proteins: a more aggregative group and a group having higher SVC and better solubility. A correlation of the measured SVC with protein molecular weight and hydropathicity, that is able to predict which group each of the eight proteins falls into, is presented. The inclusion of additives known to inhibit aggregation during renaturation improves solubility and increases the SVC of both protein groups. Furthermore, an estimate of maximum refolding yield (or solubility) using high-performance liquid chromatography was obtained for each protein tested, under different environmental conditions, enabling a relationship between "yield" and SVC to be demonstrated. Combined, the results enable an approximate estimation of the maximum refolding yield that is attainable for each of the eight proteins examined, under a selected chemical environment. Although the correlations must be tested with a far larger set of protein sequences, this work represents a significant move beyond empirical approaches for optimizing renaturation conditions. The approach moves toward the ideal of predicting maximum refolding yield using simple bioinformatic metrics that can be estimated from the gene sequence. Such a capability could potentially "screen," in silico, those sequences suitable for expression in bacteria from those

  13. D-PSA-K: A Model for Estimating the Accumulated Potential Damage on Kiwifruit Canes Caused by Bacterial Canker during the Growing and Overwintering Seasons.

    PubMed

    Do, Ki Seok; Chung, Bong Nam; Joa, Jae Ho

    2016-12-01

    We developed a model, termed D-PSA-K, to estimate the accumulated potential damage on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the growing and overwintering seasons. The model consisted of three parts including estimation of the amount of necrotic lesion in a non-frozen environment, the rate of necrosis increase in a freezing environment during the overwintering season, and the amount of necrotic lesion on kiwifruit canes caused by bacterial canker during the overwintering and growing seasons. We evaluated the model's accuracy by comparing the observed maximum disease incidence on kiwifruit canes against the damage estimated using weather and disease data collected at Wando during 1994-1997 and at Seogwipo during 2014-2015. For the Hayward cultivar, D-PSA-K estimated the accumulated damage as approximately nine times the observed maximum disease incidence. For the Hort16A cultivar, the accumulated damage estimated by D-PSA-K was high when the observed disease incidence was high. D-PSA-K could assist kiwifruit growers in selecting optimal sites for kiwifruit cultivation and establishing improved production plans by predicting the loss in kiwifruit production due to bacterial canker, using past weather or future climate change data.

  14. kWIP: The k-mer weighted inner product, a de novo estimator of genetic similarity.

    PubMed

    Murray, Kevin D; Webers, Christfried; Ong, Cheng Soon; Borevitz, Justin; Warthmann, Norman

    2017-09-01

    Modern genomics techniques generate overwhelming quantities of data. Extracting population genetic variation demands computationally efficient methods to determine genetic relatedness between individuals (or "samples") in an unbiased manner, preferably de novo. Rapid estimation of genetic relatedness directly from sequencing data has the potential to overcome reference genome bias, and to verify that individuals belong to the correct genetic lineage before conclusions are drawn using mislabelled, or misidentified samples. We present the k-mer Weighted Inner Product (kWIP), an assembly-, and alignment-free estimator of genetic similarity. kWIP combines a probabilistic data structure with a novel metric, the weighted inner product (WIP), to efficiently calculate pairwise similarity between sequencing runs from their k-mer counts. It produces a distance matrix, which can then be further analysed and visualised. Our method does not require prior knowledge of the underlying genomes and applications include establishing sample identity and detecting mix-up, non-obvious genomic variation, and population structure. We show that kWIP can reconstruct the true relatedness between samples from simulated populations. By re-analysing several published datasets we show that our results are consistent with marker-based analyses. kWIP is written in C++, licensed under the GNU GPL, and is available from https://github.com/kdmurray91/kwip.

  15. Estimating contamination potential at waste-disposal sites using a natural tracer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stone, William J.

    1992-05-01

    Chloride is a conservative, natural tracer found in precipitation, soil water, and groundwater. The chloride mass-balance approach, long used to estimate groundwater recharge, also provides a downward flux of moisture and solute at sites where there is a potential for groundwater contamination. The flux is obtained by dividing the product of the mean annual precipitation and total annual chloride input (via precipitation and dust) by the mean soil-water chloride content. Chlorideversusdepth profiles can also be used to determine optimum depth of waste burial to minimize deterioration of waste containers. The method has been applied to three sites in arid alluvial-basin settings in New Mexico, U.S.A.: a proposed landfill, a battery recycling plant, and a hazardous-waste disposal facility. It is concluded that the method is reliable, economical, and practical. Furthermore, it can be applied at any stage in the development of a site. The chloride method should apply in any recharge area where the base of the root zone is separated from the water table by at least 3 m or so and chloride in soil water comes only from precipitation and dust.

  16. Improving waterfowl production estimates: Results of a test in the prairie pothole region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, P.M.; Cowardin, L.M.

    1985-01-01

    The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in an effort to improve and standardize methods for estimating waterfowl production tested a new technique in the four-county Arrowwood Wetland Management District (WMD) for three years (1982-1984). On 14 randomly selected 10.36 km2 plots, upland and wetland habitat was mapped, classified, and digitized. Waterfowl breeding pairs were counted twice each year and the proportion of wetland basins containing water was determined. Pair numbers and habitat conditions were entered into a computer model developed by Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center. That model estimates production on small federally owned wildlife tracts, federal wetland easements, and private land. Results indicate that production estimates were most accurate for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), the species for which the computer model and data base were originally designed. Predictions for the pintail (Anas acuta), gadwall (A. strepa), blue-winged teal (A. discors), and northern shoveler (A. clypeata) were believed to be less accurate. Modeling breeding period dynamics of a waterfowl species and making credible production estimates for a geographic area are possible if the data used in the model are adequate. The process of modeling the breeding period of a species aids in locating areas of insufficient biological knowledge. This process will help direct future research efforts and permit more efficient gathering of field data.

  17. Estimating production and consumption of solid reactive Fe phases in marine sediments from concentration profiles

    EPA Science Inventory

    1D diffusion models may be used to estimate rates of production and consumption of dissolved metabolites in marine sediments, but are applied less often to the solid phase. Here we used a numerical inverse method to estimate solid phase Fe(III) and Fe(II) consumption and product...

  18. Estimation of the use of pesticides and their potential environmental impacts in Hipólito Yrigoyen, Buenos Aires, Argentina

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gonzalo Mayoral, Eliana; Nuñez, Mariana

    2017-04-01

    The process of agriculturalisation in the Pampean Region of Argentina revealed not only a significant advance of agriculture on medium to low-end land, but also the adoption of certain cultural practices, including the use of pesticides. In this sense, this research aims to know the estimated use of herbicides in the Hipólito Yrigoyen District (PHY) during the agricultural campaign 2015/16 and the potential environmental impacts resulting from the society / nature relationships identified from ecological zoning of the same. The Ecological Zoning (ZE) of the PHY (166.300 ha) at a scale of 1:500.000 allowed to identify 3 Morphological Units (UM) and 6 Morpho-phytopedic Units (UMFE), which were evaluated according to their ecological rural suitability. This evaluation indicates that 34,46% of the PHY shows aptitude from regular to good for annual crop yield, while 65,54% of the remaining area has regular or good aptitude for livestock use of cultivated forage (46,21%) and native plants (19,33%). However, despite PHY's livestock-agricultural aptitude, the evolution of current land use indicates that since 1988 and especially in 2002, only agricultural activities have led land use, focusing on the production of a few crops. In fact, in the 2015/16 crop year, 92.900 ha were sown mainly with soybean (59,2%) and maize (19,38%), and to a lesser extent with oats, barley, wheat, sunflower and sorghum (21,42%). The estimation of the use of agrochemicals according to the productive approach identified in the Inland Pampa, allows to affirm that within the group of herbicides, the most used in the 2015/16 campaign in PHY was glyphosate (364.500 l), followed by atrazine (72.800 l), 2,4-D (48.550 l) and Metsulfuron-methyl (532.000 g). According to the above, in relation to the production modality and the estimation of the use of herbicides in the last agricultural season, the analysis of the society-nature relations in the PHY reveals the potential environmental impacts derived

  19. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

    DOE PAGES

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; ...

    2015-03-27

    Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of

  20. Modeling the potential effects of new tobacco products and policies: a dynamic population model for multiple product use and harm.

    PubMed

    Vugrin, Eric D; Rostron, Brian L; Verzi, Stephen J; Brodsky, Nancy S; Brown, Theresa J; Choiniere, Conrad J; Coleman, Blair N; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J

    2015-01-01

    Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

  1. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies: A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

    PubMed Central

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.; Brodsky, Nancy S.; Brown, Theresa J.; Choiniere, Conrad J.; Coleman, Blair N.; Paredes, Antonio; Apelberg, Benjamin J.

    2015-01-01

    Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health

  2. Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Vugrin, Eric D.; Rostron, Brian L.; Verzi, Stephen J.

    Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use formore » the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of

  3. Modeling Estimated Personnel Needs for a Potential Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreak

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Simmons, K; Hullinger, P

    2008-01-29

    Foot and Mouth disease (FMD) is a highly infectious and contagious viral disease affecting cloven-hoofed livestock that was last detected in the United States (US) in 1929. The prevalence of FMD in other countries, as well as the current potential for this virus to be used as a form of agroterrorism, has made preparations for a potential FMD outbreak a national priority. To assist in the evaluation of national preparedness, all 50 states were surveyed via e-mail, telephone and web search to obtain emergency response plans for FMD or for foreign animal diseases in general. Information from 33 states wasmore » obtained and analyzed for estimates of personnel resources needed to respond to an outbreak. These estimates were consolidated and enhanced to create a tool that could be used by individual states to better understand the personnel that would be needed to complete various tasks over time during an outbreak response. The estimates were then coupled, post-processing, to the output from FMD outbreaks simulated in California using the Multiscale Epidemiological/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) model at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to estimate the personnel resource demands, by task, over the course of an outbreak response.« less

  4. The utility of estimating net primary productivity over Alaska using baseline AVHRR data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Markon, C.J.; Peterson, Kim M.

    2002-01-01

    Net primary productivity (NPP) is a fundamental ecological variable that provides information about the health and status of vegetation communities. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, or NDVI, derived from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) is increasingly being used to model or predict NPP, especially over large remote areas. In this article, seven seasonally based metrics calculated from a seven-year baseline NDVI dataset were used to model NPP over Alaska, USA. For each growing season, they included maximum, mean and summed NDVI, total days, product of total days and maximum NDVI, an integral estimate of NDVI and a summed product of NDVI and solar radiation. Field (plot) derived NPP estimates were assigned to 18 land cover classes from an Alaskan statewide land cover database. Linear relationships between NPP and each NDVI metric were analysed at four scales: plot, 1-km, 10-km and 20-km pixels. Results show moderate to poor relationship between any of the metrics and NPP estimates for all data sets and scales. Use of NDVI for estimating NPP may be possible, but caution is required due to data seasonality, the scaling process used and land surface heterogeneity.

  5. Replacing climatological potential evapotranspiration estimates with dynamic satellite-based observations in operational hydrologic prediction models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franz, K. J.; Bowman, A. L.; Hogue, T. S.; Kim, J.; Spies, R.

    2011-12-01

    In the face of a changing climate, growing populations, and increased human habitation in hydrologically risky locations, both short- and long-range planners increasingly require robust and reliable streamflow forecast information. Current operational forecasting utilizes watershed-scale, conceptual models driven by ground-based (commonly point-scale) observations of precipitation and temperature and climatological potential evapotranspiration (PET) estimates. The PET values are derived from historic pan evaporation observations and remain static from year-to-year. The need for regional dynamic PET values is vital for improved operational forecasting. With the advent of satellite remote sensing and the adoption of a more flexible operational forecast system by the National Weather Service, incorporation of advanced data products is now more feasible than in years past. In this study, we will test a previously developed satellite-derived PET product (UCLA MODIS-PET) in the National Weather Service forecast models and compare the model results to current methods. The UCLA MODIS-PET method is based on the Priestley-Taylor formulation, is driven with MODIS satellite products, and produces a daily, 250m PET estimate. The focus area is eight headwater basins in the upper Midwest U.S. There is a need to develop improved forecasting methods for this region that are able to account for climatic and landscape changes more readily and effectively than current methods. This region is highly flood prone yet sensitive to prolonged dry periods in late summer and early fall, and is characterized by a highly managed landscape, which has drastically altered the natural hydrologic cycle. Our goal is to improve model simulations, and thereby, the initial conditions prior to the start of a forecast through the use of PET values that better reflect actual watershed conditions. The forecast models are being tested in both distributed and lumped mode.

  6. Proposed Method for Estimating Health-Promoting Glucosinolates and Hydrolysis Products in Broccoli (Brassica oleracea var. italica) Using Relative Transcript Abundance.

    PubMed

    Becker, Talon M; Jeffery, Elizabeth H; Juvik, John A

    2017-01-18

    Due to the importance of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products in human nutrition and plant defense, optimizing the content of these compounds is a frequent breeding objective for Brassica crops. Toward this goal, we investigated the feasibility of using models built from relative transcript abundance data for the prediction of glucosinolate and hydrolysis product concentrations in broccoli. We report that predictive models explaining at least 50% of the variation for a number of glucosinolates and their hydrolysis products can be built for prediction within the same season, but prediction accuracy decreased when using models built from one season's data for prediction of an opposing season. This method of phytochemical profile prediction could potentially allow for lower phytochemical phenotyping costs and larger breeding populations. This, in turn, could improve selection efficiency for phase II induction potential, a type of chemopreventive bioactivity, by allowing for the quick and relatively cheap content estimation of phytochemicals known to influence the trait.

  7. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

    DOE PAGES

    Liu, Z.; Guan, D.; Wei, W.; ...

    2015-08-19

    Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption andmore » clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).« less

  8. Reduced carbon emission estimates from fossil fuel combustion and cement production in China

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Liu, Z.; Guan, D.; Wei, W.

    Nearly three-quarters of the growth in global carbon emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and cement production between 2010 and 2012 occurred in China. Yet estimates of Chinese emissions remain subject to large uncertainty; inventories of China’s total fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2008 differ by 0.3 gigatonnes of carbon, or 15 per cent. The primary sources of this uncertainty are conflicting estimates of energy consumption and emission factors, the latter being uncertain because of very few actual measurements representative of the mix of Chinese fuels. Here we re-evaluate China’s carbon emissions using updated and harmonized energy consumption andmore » clinker production data and two new and comprehensive sets of measured emission factors for Chinese coal. We find that total energy consumption in China was 10 per cent higher in 2000–2012 than the value reported by China’s national statistics, that emission factors for Chinese coal are on average 40 per cent lower than the default values recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and that emissions from China’s cement production are 45 per cent less than recent estimates. Altogether, our revised estimate of China’s CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production is 2.49 gigatonnes of carbon (2 standard deviations = ±7.3 per cent) in 2013, which is 14 per cent lower than the emissions reported by other prominent inventories. Over the full period 2000 to 2013, our revised estimates are 2.9 gigatonnes of carbon less than previous estimates of China’s cumulative carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that overestimation of China’s emissions in 2000–2013 may be larger than China’s estimated total forest sink in 1990–2007 (2.66 gigatonnes of carbon) or China’s land carbon sink in 2000–2009 (2.6 gigatonnes of carbon).« less

  9. Sensitivity of quantitative groundwater recharge estimates to volumetric and distribution uncertainty in rainfall forcing products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Werner, Micha; Westerhoff, Rogier; Moore, Catherine

    2017-04-01

    Quantitative estimates of recharge due to precipitation excess are an important input to determining sustainable abstraction of groundwater resources, as well providing one of the boundary conditions required for numerical groundwater modelling. Simple water balance models are widely applied for calculating recharge. In these models, precipitation is partitioned between different processes and stores; including surface runoff and infiltration, storage in the unsaturated zone, evaporation, capillary processes, and recharge to groundwater. Clearly the estimation of recharge amounts will depend on the estimation of precipitation volumes, which may vary, depending on the source of precipitation data used. However, the partitioning between the different processes is in many cases governed by (variable) intensity thresholds. This means that the estimates of recharge will not only be sensitive to input parameters such as soil type, texture, land use, potential evaporation; but mainly to the precipitation volume and intensity distribution. In this paper we explore the sensitivity of recharge estimates due to difference in precipitation volumes and intensity distribution in the rainfall forcing over the Canterbury region in New Zealand. We compare recharge rates and volumes using a simple water balance model that is forced using rainfall and evaporation data from; the NIWA Virtual Climate Station Network (VCSN) data (which is considered as the reference dataset); the ERA-Interim/WATCH dataset at 0.25 degrees and 0.5 degrees resolution; the TRMM-3B42 dataset; the CHIRPS dataset; and the recently releases MSWEP dataset. Recharge rates are calculated at a daily time step over the 14 year period from the 2000 to 2013 for the full Canterbury region, as well as at eight selected points distributed over the region. Lysimeter data with observed estimates of recharge are available at four of these points, as well as recharge estimates from the NGRM model, an independent model

  10. Basin-scale estimates of oceanic primary production by remote sensing - The North Atlantic

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Platt, Trevor; Caverhill, Carla; Sathyendranath, Shubha

    1991-01-01

    The monthly averaged CZCS data for 1979 are used to estimate annual primary production at ocean basin scales in the North Atlantic. The principal supplementary data used were 873 vertical profiles of chlorophyll and 248 sets of parameters derived from photosynthesis-light experiments. Four different procedures were tested for calculation of primary production. The spectral model with nonuniform biomass was considered as the benchmark for comparison against the other three models. The less complete models gave results that differed by as much as 50 percent from the benchmark. Vertically uniform models tended to underestimate primary production by about 20 percent compared to the nonuniform models. At horizontal scale, the differences between spectral and nonspectral models were negligible. The linear correlation between biomass and estimated production was poor outside the tropics, suggesting caution against the indiscriminate use of biomass as a proxy variable for primary production.

  11. Price Elasticity Estimates for Tobacco Products in India

    PubMed Central

    John, Rijo M

    2009-01-01

    The tax base of tobacco in India is heavily dependent on about 14% of tobacco users, who smoke cigarettes. Non-cigarette tobacco products accounting for 85% of the tobacco consumption contributes only 15% of the total tobacco taxes. Though taxation is an important tool to regulate consumption of tobacco, there have been no estimates of price elasticities for different tobacco products in India to date, which can guide tax policy on tobacco. This paper, for the first time in India, examines the price elasticity of demand for bidis, cigarettes and leaf tobacco at the national level using a representative cross-section of households. This study found that own-price elasticity estimates of different tobacco products in India ranged between −0.4 to −0.9, with bidis (an indigenous hand-rolled smoked tobacco preparation in India) and leaf tobacco having elasticities close to unity. Cigarettes were the least price elastic of all. With some assumptions, it is shown that the tax on bidis can be increased to Rs. 100 per 1000 sticks compared with the current Rs. 14 and the tax on an average cigarette can be increased to Rs. 3.5 per stick without any fear of losing revenue. The paper argues that the current system of taxing cigarettes in India based on the presence of filters and the length of cigarettes has no justification on health grounds, and should be abolished, if reducing tobacco consumption and the consequent disease burden is one of the objectives of tobacco taxation policy. It also argues that attempts to regulate tobacco use without effecting significant tax increases on bidis may not produce desired results. PMID:18424474

  12. Price elasticity estimates for tobacco products in India.

    PubMed

    John, Rijo M

    2008-05-01

    The tax base of tobacco in India is heavily dependent on about 14% of tobacco users, who smoke cigarettes. Non-cigarette tobacco products accounting for 85% of the tobacco consumption contributes only 15% of the total tobacco taxes. Though taxation is an important tool to regulate consumption of tobacco, there have been no estimates of price elasticities for different tobacco products in India to date, which can guide tax policy on tobacco. This paper, for the first time in India, examines the price elasticity of demand for bidis, cigarettes and leaf tobacco at the national level using a representative cross-section of households. This study found that own-price elasticity estimates of different tobacco products in India ranged between -0.4 to -0.9, with bidis (an indigenous hand-rolled smoked tobacco preparation in India) and leaf tobacco having elasticities close to unity. Cigarettes were the least price elastic of all. With some assumptions, it is shown that the tax on bidis can be increased to Rs. 100 per 1000 sticks compared with the current Rs. 14 and the tax on an average cigarette can be increased to Rs. 3.5 per stick without any fear of losing revenue. The paper argues that the current system of taxing cigarettes in India based on the presence of filters and the length of cigarettes has no justification on health grounds, and should be abolished, if reducing tobacco consumption and the consequent disease burden is one of the objectives of tobacco taxation policy. It also argues that attempts to regulate tobacco use without effecting significant tax increases on bidis may not produce desired results.

  13. Probabilistic estimates of drought impacts on agricultural production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Madadgar, Shahrbanou; AghaKouchak, Amir; Farahmand, Alireza; Davis, Steven J.

    2017-08-01

    Increases in the severity and frequency of drought in a warming climate may negatively impact agricultural production and food security. Unlike previous studies that have estimated agricultural impacts of climate condition using single-crop yield distributions, we develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses projected climatic conditions (e.g., precipitation amount or soil moisture) throughout a growing season to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. We demonstrate the model by an analysis of the historical period 1980-2012, including the Millennium Drought in Australia (2001-2009). We find that precipitation and soil moisture deficit in dry growing seasons reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops in Australia (wheat, broad beans, canola, lupine, and barley) by 25-45% relative to the wet growing seasons. Our model can thus produce region- and crop-specific agricultural sensitivities to climate conditions and variability. Probabilistic estimates of yield may help decision-makers in government and business to quantitatively assess the vulnerability of agriculture to climate variations. We develop a multivariate probabilistic model that uses precipitation to estimate the probability distribution of crop yields. The proposed model shows how the probability distribution of crop yield changes in response to droughts. During Australia's Millennium Drought precipitation and soil moisture deficit reduced the average annual yield of the five largest crops.

  14. Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States: Methodology and Initial Results

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna

    The report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, is defined in this report as the subset of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity.

  15. Carbon storage potential increases with increasing ratio of C4 to C3 grass cover and soil productivity in restored tallgrass prairies.

    PubMed

    Spiesman, Brian J; Kummel, Herika; Jackson, Randall D

    2018-02-01

    Long-term soil carbon (C) storage is essential for reducing CO 2 in the atmosphere. Converting unproductive and environmentally sensitive agricultural lands to grasslands for bioenergy production may enhance C storage. However, a better understanding of the interacting effects of grass functional composition (i.e., relative abundance of C 4 and C 3 grass cover) and soil productivity on C storage will help guide sustainable grassland management. Our objective was to examine the relationship between grass functional composition and potential C storage and how it varies with potential soil productivity. We estimated C inputs from above- and belowground net primary productivity (ANPP and BNPP), and heterotrophic respiration (R H ) to calculate net ecosystem production (NEP), a measure of potential soil C storage, in grassland plots of relatively high- and low-productivity soils spanning a gradient in the ratio of C 4 to C 3 grass cover (C 4 :C 3 ). NEP increased with increasing C 4 :C 3 , but only in potentially productive soils. The positive relationship likely stemmed from increased ANPP, rather than BNPP, which was possibly related to efficient resource-use and physiological/anatomical advantages of C 4 plants. R H was negatively correlated with C 4 :C 3 , possibly because of changes in microclimate or plant-microbe interactions. It is possible that in potentially productive soils, C storage can be enhanced by favoring C 4 over C 3 grasses through increased ANPP and BNPP and reduced R H . Results also suggest that potential C storage gains from C 4 productivity would not be undermined by a corresponding increase in R H .

  16. Estimation of genetic parameters of the productive and reproductive traits in Ethiopian Holstein using multi-trait models.

    PubMed

    Ayalew, Wondossen; Aliy, Mohammed; Negussie, Enyew

    2017-11-01

    This study estimated the genetic parameters for productive and reproductive traits. The data included production and reproduction records of animals that have calved between 1979 and 2013. The genetic parameters were estimated using multivariate mixed models (DMU) package, fitting univariate and multivariate mixed models with average information restricted maximum likelihood algorithm. The estimates of heritability for milk production traits from the first three lactation records were 0.03±0.03 for lactation length (LL), 0.17±0.04 for lactation milk yield (LMY), and 0.15±0.04 for 305 days milk yield (305-d MY). For reproductive traits the heritability estimates were, 0.09±0.03 for days open (DO), 0.11±0.04 for calving interval (CI), and 0.47±0.06 for age at first calving (AFC). The repeatability estimates for production traits were 0.12±0.02, for LL, 0.39±0.02 for LMY, and 0.25±0.02 for 305-d MY. For reproductive traits the estimates of repeatability were 0.19±0.02 for DO, and to 0.23±0.02 for CI. The phenotypic correlations between production and reproduction traits ranged from 0.08±0.04 for LL and AFC to 0.42±0.02 for LL and DO. The genetic correlation among production traits were generally high (>0.7) and between reproductive traits the estimates ranged from 0.06±0.13 for AFC and DO to 0.99±0.01 between CI and DO. Genetic correlations of productive traits with reproductive traits were ranged from -0.02 to 0.99. The high heritability estimates observed for AFC indicated that reasonable genetic improvement for this trait might be possible through selection. The h2 and r estimates for reproductive traits were slightly different from single versus multi-trait analyses of reproductive traits with production traits. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended.

  17. Let it snow! Let it snow! Let it snow! Estimating cocaine production using a novel dataset based on reported seizures of laboratories in Colombia.

    PubMed

    Leoncini, Riccardo; Rentocchini, Francesco

    2012-11-01

    Data on the cocaine market appear inconsistent, as they tend to show declining prices vis-a-vis steady or increasing demand and a declining supply. This paper proposes an explanation for this trend by providing evidence of an under-estimation of the supply of cocaine. We propose a conservative estimate of cocaine production in Colombia for 2008, using data based on all reported seizures from 328 laboratories made by the counteracting organisations operating within the Colombian territory. Our conservative estimate of 935 tons from the seized laboratories is at least twice the estimate declared in official statistics of 295-450 tons. We are careful to keep all variables to their minimum boundary values. Our methodology could prove to be a useful tool, especially if used in parallel with the standard tools. Moreover, its characteristics (affordability, ease of use and potential for worldwide adoption) make it a powerful instrument to counteract cocaine production. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  18. Estimating Daytime Ecosystem Respiration to Improve Estimates of Gross Primary Production of a Temperate Forest

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Jinwei; Wu, Jiabing; Guan, Dexin; Yao, Fuqi; Yuan, Fenghui; Wang, Anzhi; Jin, Changjie

    2014-01-01

    Leaf respiration is an important component of carbon exchange in terrestrial ecosystems, and estimates of leaf respiration directly affect the accuracy of ecosystem carbon budgets. Leaf respiration is inhibited by light; therefore, gross primary production (GPP) will be overestimated if the reduction in leaf respiration by light is ignored. However, few studies have quantified GPP overestimation with respect to the degree of light inhibition in forest ecosystems. To determine the effect of light inhibition of leaf respiration on GPP estimation, we assessed the variation in leaf respiration of seedlings of the dominant tree species in an old mixed temperate forest with different photosynthetically active radiation levels using the Laisk method. Canopy respiration was estimated by combining the effect of light inhibition on leaf respiration of these species with within-canopy radiation. Leaf respiration decreased exponentially with an increase in light intensity. Canopy respiration and GPP were overestimated by approximately 20.4% and 4.6%, respectively, when leaf respiration reduction in light was ignored compared with the values obtained when light inhibition of leaf respiration was considered. This study indicates that accurate estimates of daytime ecosystem respiration are needed for the accurate evaluation of carbon budgets in temperate forests. In addition, this study provides a valuable approach to accurately estimate GPP by considering leaf respiration reduction in light in other ecosystems. PMID:25419844

  19. Estimating Renewable Energy Economic Potential in the United States. Methodology and Initial Results

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Brown, Austin; Beiter, Philipp; Heimiller, Donna

    This report describes a geospatial analysis method to estimate the economic potential of several renewable resources available for electricity generation in the United States. Economic potential, one measure of renewable generation potential, may be defined in several ways. For example, one definition might be expected revenues (based on local market prices) minus generation costs, considered over the expected lifetime of the generation asset. Another definition might be generation costs relative to a benchmark (e.g., a natural gas combined cycle plant) using assumptions of fuel prices, capital cost, and plant efficiency. Economic potential in this report is defined as the subsetmore » of the available resource technical potential where the cost required to generate the electricity (which determines the minimum revenue requirements for development of the resource) is below the revenue available in terms of displaced energy and displaced capacity. The assessment is conducted at a high geospatial resolution (more than 150,000 technology-specific sites in the continental United States) to capture the significant variation in local resource, costs, and revenue potential. This metric can be a useful screening factor for understanding the economic viability of renewable generation technologies at a specific location. In contrast to many common estimates of renewable energy potential, economic potential does not consider market dynamics, customer demand, or most policy drivers that may incent renewable energy generation.« less

  20. Are Methods for Estimating Primary Production and the Growth Rates of Phytoplankton Approaching Agreement?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cullen, J. J.

    2016-02-01

    During the 1980s, estimates of primary productivity and the growth rates of phytoplankton in oligotrophic waters were controversial, in part because rates based on seasonal accumulations of oxygen in the shallow oxygen maximum were reported to be much higher than could be accounted for with measurements of photosynthesis based on incubations with C-14. Since then, much has changed: tested and standardized methods have been employed to collect comprehensive time-series observations of primary production and related oceanographic properties in oligotrophic waters of the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the Sargasso Sea; technical and theoretical advances have led to new tracer-based estimates of photosynthesis (e.g., oxygen/argon and triple isotopes of dissolved oxygen); and biogeochemical sensor systems on ocean gliders and profiling floats can describe with unprecedented resolution the dynamics of phytoplankton, oxygen and nitrate as driven by growth, loss processes including grazing, and vertical migration for nutrient acquisition. Meanwhile, the estimation of primary productivity, phytoplankton biomass and phytoplankton growth rates from remote sensing of ocean color has matured, complementing biogeochemical models that describe and predict these key properties of plankton dynamics. In a selective review focused on well-studied oligotrophic waters, I compare methods for estimating the primary productivity and growth rates of phytoplankton to see if they are converging on agreement, not only in the estimated rates, but also in the underlying assumptions, such as the ratio of gross- to net primary production — and how this relates to the measurement — and the ratio of chlorophyll to carbon in phytoplankton. Examples of agreement are encouraging, but some stark contrasts illustrate the need for improved mechanistic understanding of exactly what each method is measuring.

  1. Demand Estimation with Heterogeneous Consumers and Unobserved Product Characteristics: A Hedonic Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bajari, Patrick; Benkard, C. Lanier

    2005-01-01

    We reconsider the identification and estimation of Gorman-Lancaster-style hedonic models of demand for differentiated products in the spirit of Sherwin Rosen. We generalize Rosen's first stage to account for product characteristics that are not observed and to allow the hedonic pricing function to have a general nonseparable form. We take an…

  2. Kato Smoothing and Strichartz Estimates for Wave Equations with Magnetic Potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    D'Ancona, Piero

    2015-04-01

    Let H be a selfadjoint operator and A a closed operator on a Hilbert space . If A is H-(super)smooth in the sense of Kato-Yajima, we prove that is -(super)smooth. This allows us to include wave and Klein-Gordon equations in the abstract theory at the same level of generality as Schrödinger equations. We give a few applications and in particular, based on the resolvent estimates of Erdogan, Goldberg and Schlag (Forum Mathematicum 21:687-722, 2009), we prove Strichartz estimates for wave equations perturbed with large magnetic potentials on , n ≥ 3.

  3. Improving Lidar-based Aboveground Biomass Estimation with Site Productivity for Central Hardwood Forests, USA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, G.; Gallion, J.; Fei, S.

    2016-12-01

    Sound forest aboveground biomass estimation is required to monitor diverse forest ecosystems and their impacts on the changing climate. Lidar-based regression models provided promised biomass estimations in most forest ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainties of biomass estimations have been reported in the temperate hardwood and hardwood-dominated mixed forests. Varied site productivities in temperate hardwood forests largely diversified height and diameter growth rates, which significantly reduced the correlation between tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) in mature and complex forests. It is, therefore, difficult to utilize height-based lidar metrics to predict DBH-based field-measured biomass through a simple regression model regardless the variation of site productivity. In this study, we established a multi-dimension nonlinear regression model incorporating lidar metrics and site productivity classes derived from soil features. In the regression model, lidar metrics provided horizontal and vertical structural information and productivity classes differentiated good and poor forest sites. The selection and combination of lidar metrics were discussed. Multiple regression models were employed and compared. Uncertainty analysis was applied to the best fit model. The effects of site productivity on the lidar-based biomass model were addressed.

  4. Solar Tyrol project: using climate data for energy production estimation. The good practice of Tyrol in conceptualizing climate services.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petitta, Marcello; Wagner, Jochen; Costa, Armin; Monsorno, Roberto; Innerebner, Markus; Moser, David; Zebisch, Marc

    2014-05-01

    The scientific community in the last years is largely discussing the concept of "Climate services". Several definitions have been used, but it still remains a rather open concept. We used climate data from analysis and reanalysis to create a daily and hourly model of atmospheric turbidity in order to account the effect of the atmosphere on incoming solar radiation with the final aim of estimating electric production from Photovoltaic (PV) Modules in the Alps. Renewable Energy production in the Alpine Region is dominated by hydroelectricity, but the potential for photovoltaic energy production is gaining momentum. Especially the southern part of the Alps and inner Alpine regions offer good conditions for PV energy production. The combination of high irradiance values and cold air temperature in mountainous regions is well suited for solar cells. To enable more widespread currency of PV plants, PV has to become an important part in regional planning. To provide regional authorities and also private stakeholders with high quality PV energy yield climatology in the provinces of Bolzano/Bozen South Tirol (Italy) and Tyrol (Austria), the research project Solar Tyrol was inaugurated in 2012. Several methods are used to calculate very high resolution maps of solar radiation. Most of these approaches use climatological values. In this project we reconstructed the last 10 years of atmospheric turbidity using reanalysis and operational data in order to better estimate incoming solar radiation in the alpine region. Our method is divided into three steps: i) clear sky radiation: to estimate the atmospheric effect on solar radiation we calculated Linke Turbidity factor using aerosols optical depth (AOD), surface albedo, atmospheric pressure, and total water content from ECMWF and MACC analysis. ii) shadows: we calculated shadows of mountains and buildings using a 2 meter-resolution digital elevation model of the area and GIS module r.sun modified to fit our specific needs. iii

  5. Alluvial Diamond Resource Potential and Production Capacity Assessment of Ghana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.; Anum, Solomon; Phillips, Emily C.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflictual concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by both diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in 'conflict' diamonds while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was to assess the alluvial diamond resource endowment and current production capacity of the alluvial diamond-mining sector in Ghana. A modified volume and grade methodology was used to estimate the remaining diamond reserves within the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields. The production capacity of the sector was estimated using a formulaic expression of the number of workers reported in the sector, their productivity, and the average grade of deposits mined. This study estimates that there are approximately 91,600,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remaining in both the Birim and Bonsa diamond fields: 89,000,000 carats in the Birim and 2,600,000 carats in the Bonsa. Production capacity is calculated to be 765,000 carats per year, based on the formula used and available data on the number of workers and worker productivity. Annual production is highly dependent on the international diamond market and prices, the numbers of seasonal workers actively mining in the sector, and

  6. Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

    2014-01-01

    This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

  7. Using the interaction of mental health symptoms and treatment status to estimate lost employee productivity.

    PubMed

    Hilton, Michael F; Scuffham, Paul A; Vecchio, Nerina; Whiteford, Harvey A

    2010-02-01

    In Australia it has been estimated that mental health symptoms result in a loss of $ AU2.7 billion in employee productivity. To date, however, there has been only one study quantifying employee productivity decrements due to mental disorders when treatment-seeking behaviours are considered. The aim of the current paper was to estimate employee work productivity by mental health symptoms while considering different treatment-seeking behaviours. A total of 60 556 full-time employees responded to the World Health Organization Health and Work Performance Questionnaire. This questionnaire is designed to monitor the work productivity of employees for chronic and acute physical and mental health conditions. Contained within the questionnaire is the Kessler 6, a scale measuring psychological distress along with an evaluation of employee treatment-seeking behaviours for depression, anxiety and any other emotional problems. A univariate analysis of variance was performed for employee productivity using the interaction between Kessler 6 severity categories and treatment-seeking behaviours. A total of 9.6% of employees have moderate psychological distress and a further 4.5% have high psychological distress. Increasing psychological distress from low to moderate then to high levels is associated with increasing productivity decrements (6.4%, 9.4% and 20.9% decrements, respectively) for employees in current treatment. Combining the prevalence of Kessler 6 categories with treatment-seeking behaviours, mean 2009 salaries and number of Australian employees in 2009, it is estimated that psychological distress produces an $ AU5.9 billion reduction in Australian employee productivity per annum. The estimated loss of $ AU5.9 billion in employee productivity due to mental health problems is substantially higher than previous estimates. This finding is especially pertinent given the global economic crisis, when psychological distress among employees is likely to be increasing. Effective

  8. Fish assemblage production estimates in Appalachian streams across a latitudinal and temperature gradient

    Treesearch

    Bonnie J.E. Myers; C. Andrew Dolloff; Jackson R. Webster; Keith H. Nislow; Brandon Fair; Andrew L. Rypel

    2017-01-01

    Production of biomass is central to the ecology and sustainability of fish assemblages. The goal of this study was to empirically estimate and compare fish assemblage production, production-to-biomass (P/B) ratios and species composition for 25 second- to third-order streams spanning the Appalachian Mountains (from Vermont to North Carolina) that vary in their...

  9. Dent and Flint maize diversity panels reveal important genetic potential for increasing biomass production.

    PubMed

    Rincent, R; Nicolas, S; Bouchet, S; Altmann, T; Brunel, D; Revilla, P; Malvar, R A; Moreno-Gonzalez, J; Campo, L; Melchinger, A E; Schipprack, W; Bauer, E; Schoen, C-C; Meyer, N; Ouzunova, M; Dubreuil, P; Giauffret, C; Madur, D; Combes, V; Dumas, F; Bauland, C; Jamin, P; Laborde, J; Flament, P; Moreau, L; Charcosset, A

    2014-11-01

    Genetic and phenotypic analysis of two complementary maize panels revealed an important variation for biomass yield. Flowering and biomass QTL were discovered by association mapping in both panels. The high whole plant biomass productivity of maize makes it a potential source of energy in animal feeding and biofuel production. The variability and the genetic determinism of traits related to biomass are poorly known. We analyzed two highly diverse panels of Dent and Flint lines representing complementary heterotic groups for Northern Europe. They were genotyped with the 50 k SNP-array and phenotyped as hybrids (crossed to a tester of the complementary pool) in a western European field trial network for traits related to flowering time, plant height, and biomass. The molecular information revealed to be a powerful tool for discovering different levels of structure and relatedness in both panels. This study revealed important variation and potential genetic progress for biomass production, even at constant precocity. Association mapping was run by combining genotypes and phenotypes in a mixed model with a random polygenic effect. This permitted the detection of significant associations, confirming height and flowering time quantitative trait loci (QTL) found in literature. Biomass yield QTL were detected in both panels but were unstable across the environments. Alternative kinship estimator only based on markers unlinked to the tested SNP increased the number of significant associations by around 40% with a satisfying control of the false positive rate. This study gave insights into the variability and the genetic architectures of biomass-related traits in Flint and Dent lines and suggests important potential of these two pools for breeding high biomass yielding hybrid varieties.

  10. Potential Habitable Zone Exomoon Candidates and Radial Velocity Estimates for Giant Kepler HZ Candidates.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hill, M.; Kane, S.; Kopparapu, R.; Seperuelo Duarte, E.; Gelino, D.; Whittenmyer, R.

    2017-12-01

    The NASA Kepler mission has discovered thousands of new planetary candidates, many of which have been confirmed through follow-up observations. A primary goal of the mission is to determine the occurrence rate of terrestrial-size planets within the Habitable Zone (HZ) of their host stars. A major product of the Habitable Zone Working Group (HZWG) is a list of HZ exoplanet candidates from the Kepler Data Release 24 Q1- Q17 data vetting process [1]. We used a variety of criteria regarding HZ boundaries and planetary sizes to produce complete lists of HZ candidates, including a catalog of 104 candidates within the optimistic HZ. We cross-matched our HZ candidates with the Data Release 25 stellar properties and confirmed planet properties to provide robust stellar parameters and candidate dispositions. We also performed dynamical analysis simulations for multi-planet systems that contain candidates with radii less than two Earth radii as a step toward validation of those systems. From this list we found 39 planet candidates greater than 3 earth radii residing in the Optimistic Habitable Zone of their host star. While giant planets are not favored in the search for eta Earth, they do indicate a potential for large, potentially rocky moons residing in the habitable zone. These giant planets can also provide a potential for a wider range of "habitable" incident flux due to additional energy sources from tidal energy, etc. Thus we analyzed each giant planet, estimating their mass and then calculating the estimated Radial Velocity Semi Amplitudes of each planet for use in follow up observations. We then calculated the planets Hill radius and determined the maximum angular separation of potential moons. This presentation will describe the highlights of the HZ catalog giant planets and the plans for further validation of HZ candidates and follow-up studies. Fig. 1 - Plots both the unconfirmed and confirmed Giant (>3⊕R) Kepler candidates expected Radial Velocity signatures

  11. COMBINING LIDAR ESTIMATES OF BIOMASS AND LANDSAT ESTIMATES OF STAND AGE FOR SPATIALLY EXTENSIVE VALIDATION OF MODELED FOREST PRODUCTIVITY. (R828309)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Extensive estimates of forest productivity are required to understand the
    relationships between shifting land use, changing climate and carbon storage
    and fluxes. Aboveground net primary production of wood (NPPAw) is a major component
    of total NPP and...

  12. Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961-2010.

    PubMed

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961-2010. Here "potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density" denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961-2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3%) per decade

  13. Surveillance methods for identifying, characterizing, and monitoring tobacco products: potential reduced exposure products as an example

    PubMed Central

    O’Connor, Richard J.; Cummings, K. Michael; Rees, Vaughan W.; Connolly, Gregory N.; Norton, Kaila J.; Sweanor, David; Parascandola, Mark; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Shields, Peter G.

    2015-01-01

    Tobacco products are widely sold and marketed, yet integrated data systems for identifying, tracking, and characterizing products are lacking. Tobacco manufacturers recently have developed potential reduction exposure products (PREPs) with implied or explicit health claims. Currently, a systematic approach for identifying, defining, and evaluating PREPs sold at the local, state or national levels in the US has not been developed. Identifying, characterizing, and monitoring new tobacco products could be greatly enhanced with a responsive surveillance system. This paper critically reviews available surveillance data sources for identifying and tracking tobacco products, including PREPs, evaluating strengths and weaknesses of potential data sources in light of their reliability and validity. Absent regulations mandating disclosure of product-specific information, it is likely that public health officials will need to rely on a variety of imperfect data sources to help identify, characterize, and monitor tobacco products, including PREPs. PMID:19959680

  14. Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of mid-atlantic wadeable streams.

    PubMed

    Barber, M Craig; Rashleigh, Brenda; Cyterski, Michael J

    2016-01-01

    Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Average annual biomasses and population densities and annual productions are estimated for 352 randomly selected streams. Realized bioaccumulation factors (BAF) and biomagnification factors (BMF), which are dependent on these forecasted biomasses, population densities, and productions, are also estimated by assuming constant water exposures to methylmercury and tetra-, penta-, hexa-, and hepta-chlorinated biphenyls. Using observed biomasses, observed densities, and estimated annual productions of total fish from 3 regions assumed to support healthy fisheries as benchmarks (eastern Tennessee and Catskill Mountain trout streams and Ozark Mountains smallmouth bass streams), 58% of the region's wadeable streams are estimated to be in marginal or poor condition (i.e., not healthy). Using simulated BAFs and EMAP Hg fish concentrations, we also estimate that approximately 24% of the game fish and subsistence fishing species that are found in streams having detectable Hg concentrations would exceed an acceptable human consumption criterion of 0.185 μg/g wet wt. Importantly, such streams have been estimated to represent 78.2% to 84.4% of the Mid-Atlantic's wadeable stream lengths. Our results demonstrate how a dynamic simulation model can support regional assessment and trends analysis for fisheries. © 2015 SETAC.

  15. Alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessment of the Central African Republic

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Barthelemy, Francis; Ngbokoto, Francois A.

    2010-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, and attended by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that rough, exported diamonds were free of conflict concerns. This meeting was supported later in 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberly Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. Over 70 countries were included as members of the KPCS at the end of 2007. To prevent trade in "conflict diamonds" while protecting legitimate trade, the KPCS requires that each country set up an internal system of controls to prevent conflict diamonds from entering any imported or exported shipments of rough diamonds. Every diamond or diamond shipment must be accompanied by a Kimberley Process (KP) certificate and be contained in tamper-proof packaging. The objective of this study was (1) to assess the naturally occurring endowment of diamonds in the Central African Republic (potential resources) based on geological evidence, previous studies, and recent field data and (2) to assess the diamond-production capacity and measure the intensity of mining activity. Several possible methods can be used to estimate the potential diamond resource. However, because there is generally a lack of sufficient and consistent data recording all diamond mining in the Central African Republic and because time to conduct fieldwork and accessibility to the diamond mining areas are limited, two different methodologies were used: the volume and grade approach and the content per kilometer approach. Estimates are that approximately 39,000,000 carats of alluvial diamonds remain in the eastern and western zones of the CAR combined. This amount is roughly twice the total amount of diamonds reportedly exported from the Central African Republic since 1931. Production capacity is

  16. Productivity loss due to presenteeism among patients with arthritis: estimates from 4 instruments.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wei; Gignac, Monique A M; Beaton, Dorcas; Tang, Kenneth; Anis, Aslam H

    2010-09-01

    To estimate and compare lost work hours attributable to presenteeism, defined as reduced productivity while working, in individuals with osteoarthritis (OA) or rheumatoid arthritis (RA), according to 4 instruments. In our prospective study, 250 workers with OA (n = 130) or RA (n = 120) were recruited from community and clinical sites. Lost hours due to presenteeism at baseline were estimated using the Health and Labor Questionnaire (HLQ), the Work Limitations Questionnaire (WLQ), the World Health Organization's Health and Work Performance Questionnaire (HPQ), and the Work Productivity and Activity Impairment Questionnaire (WPAI). Only those respondents working over the past 2 weeks were included. Repeated-measures ANOVA was used to compare the lost-time estimates, according to each instrument. Of the 212 respondents included in the analyses, the frequency of missing and "0" values among the instruments was different (17% and 61% for HLQ, 8% and 5% for WLQ, 1% and 16% for HPQ, 0% and 27% for WPAI, respectively). The average numbers of lost hours (SD) per 2 weeks due to presenteeism using HLQ, WLQ, HPQ, and WPAI were 1.6 (3.9), 4.0 (3.9), 13.5 (12.5), and 14.2 (16.7). The corresponding costs for the 2-week period were CAN$30.03, $83.05, $284.07, and $285.10. The differences in the lost-hour estimates according to instruments were significant (p < 0.001). Among individuals with arthritis, estimates of productivity losses while working vary widely according to the instruments chosen. Further research on instrument design and implications for a standardized approach to estimate lost time due to presenteeism is needed.

  17. Estimating productivity costs using the friction cost approach in practice: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Kigozi, Jesse; Jowett, Sue; Lewis, Martyn; Barton, Pelham; Coast, Joanna

    2016-01-01

    The choice of the most appropriate approach to valuing productivity loss has received much debate in the literature. The friction cost approach has been proposed as a more appropriate alternative to the human capital approach when valuing productivity loss, although its application remains limited. This study reviews application of the friction cost approach in health economic studies and examines how its use varies in practice across different country settings. A systematic review was performed to identify economic evaluation studies that have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach and published in English from 1996 to 2013. A standard template was developed and used to extract information from studies meeting the inclusion criteria. The search yielded 46 studies from 12 countries. Of these, 28 were from the Netherlands. Thirty-five studies reported the length of friction period used, with only 16 stating explicitly the source of the friction period. Nine studies reported the elasticity correction factor used. The reported friction cost approach methods used to derive productivity costs varied in quality across studies from different countries. Few health economic studies have estimated productivity costs using the friction cost approach. The estimation and reporting of productivity costs using this method appears to differ in quality by country. The review reveals gaps and lack of clarity in reporting of methods for friction cost evaluation. Generating reporting guidelines and country-specific parameters for the friction cost approach is recommended if increased application and accuracy of the method is to be realized.

  18. HIV Patients Drop Out in Indonesia: Associated Factors and Potential Productivity Loss.

    PubMed

    Siregar, Adiatma Ym; Pitriyan, Pipit; Wisaksana, Rudi

    2016-07-01

    this study reported various factors associated with a higher probability of HIV patients drop out, and potential productivity loss due to HIV patients drop out. we analyzed data of 658 HIV patients from a database in a main referral hospital in Bandung city, West Java, Indonesia from 2007 to 2013. First, we utilized probit regression analysis and included, among others, the following variables: patients' status (active or drop out), CD4 cell count, TB and opportunistic infection (OI), work status, sex, history of injecting drugs, and support from family and peers. Second, we used the drop out data from our database and CD 4 cell count decline rate from another study to estimate the productivity loss due to HIV patients drop out. lower CD4 cell count was associated with a higher probability of drop out. Support from family/peers, living with family, and diagnosed with TB were associated with lower probability of drop out. The productivity loss at national level due to treatment drop out (consequently, due to CD4 cell count decline) can reach US$365 million (using average wage). first, as lower CD 4 cell count was associated with higher probability of drop out, we recommend (to optimize) early ARV initiation at a higher CD 4 cell count, involving scaling up HIV service at the community level. Second, family/peer support should be further emphasized to further ensure treatment success. Third, dropping out from ART will result in a relatively large productivity loss.

  19. Physiological tolerance and stoichiometric potential of cyanobacteria for hydrocarbon fuel production.

    PubMed

    Kämäräinen, Jari; Knoop, Henning; Stanford, Natalie J; Guerrero, Fernando; Akhtar, M Kalim; Aro, Eva-Mari; Steuer, Ralf; Jones, Patrik R

    2012-11-30

    Cyanobacteria are capable of directly converting sunlight, carbon dioxide and water into hydrocarbon fuel or precursors thereof. Many biological and non-biological factors will influence the ability of such a production system to become economically sustainable. We evaluated two factors in engineerable cyanobacteria which could potentially limit economic sustainability: (i) tolerance of the host to the intended end-product, and (ii) stoichiometric potential for production. Alcohols, when externally added, inhibited growth the most, followed by aldehydes and acids, whilst alkanes were the least inhibitory. The growth inhibition became progressively greater with increasing chain-length for alcohols, whilst the intermediate C6 alkane caused more inhibition than both C3 and C11 alkane. Synechocystis sp. PCC 6803 was more tolerant to some of the tested chemicals than Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942, particularly ethanol and undecane. Stoichiometric evaluation of the potential yields suggested that there is no difference in the potential productivity of harvestable energy between any of the studied fuels, with the exception of ethylene, for which maximal stoichiometric yield is considerably lower. In summary, it was concluded that alkanes would constitute the best choice metabolic end-product for fuel production using cyanobacteria if high-yielding strains can be developed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Mapping Oil and Gas Development Potential in the US Intermountain West and Estimating Impacts to Species

    PubMed Central

    Copeland, Holly E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Naugle, David E.; Pocewicz, Amy; Kiesecker, Joseph M.

    2009-01-01

    Background Many studies have quantified the indirect effect of hydrocarbon-based economies on climate change and biodiversity, concluding that a significant proportion of species will be threatened with extinction. However, few studies have measured the direct effect of new energy production infrastructure on species persistence. Methodology/Principal Findings We propose a systematic way to forecast patterns of future energy development and calculate impacts to species using spatially-explicit predictive modeling techniques to estimate oil and gas potential and create development build-out scenarios by seeding the landscape with oil and gas wells based on underlying potential. We illustrate our approach for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the western US and translate the build-out scenarios into estimated impacts on sage-grouse. We project that future oil and gas development will cause a 7–19 percent decline from 2007 sage-grouse lek population counts and impact 3.7 million ha of sagebrush shrublands and 1.1 million ha of grasslands in the study area. Conclusions/Significance Maps of where oil and gas development is anticipated in the US Intermountain West can be used by decision-makers intent on minimizing impacts to sage-grouse. This analysis also provides a general framework for using predictive models and build-out scenarios to anticipate impacts to species. These predictive models and build-out scenarios allow tradeoffs to be considered between species conservation and energy development prior to implementation. PMID:19826472

  1. Preliminary estimates of the quantities of rare-earth elements contained in selected products and in imports of semimanufactured products to the United States, 2010

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bleiwas, Donald I.; Gambogi, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    Rare-earth elements (REEs) are contained in a wide range of products of economic and strategic importance to the Nation. The REEs may or may not represent a significant component of that product by mass, value, or volume; however, in many cases, the embedded REEs are critical for the device’s function. Domestic sources of primary supply and the manufacturing facilities to produce products are inadequate to meet U.S. requirements; therefore, a significant percentage of the supply of REEs and the products that contain them are imported to the United States. In 2011, mines in China produced roughly 97 percent of the world’s supply of REEs, and the country’s production of these elements will likely dominate global supply until at least 2020. Preliminary estimates of the types and amount of rare-earth elements, reported as oxides, in semimanufactured form and the amounts used for electric vehicle batteries, catalytic converters, computers, and other applications were developed to provide a perspective on the Nation’s use of these elements. The amount of rare-earth metals recovered from recycling, remanufacturing, and reuse is negligible when the tonnage of products that contain REEs deposited in landfills and retained in storage is considered. Under favorable market conditions, the recovery of REEs from obsolete products could potentially displace a portion of the supply from primary sources.

  2. Sampling estimators of total mill receipts for use in timber product output studies

    Treesearch

    John P. Brown; Richard G. Oderwald

    2012-01-01

    Data from the 2001 timber product output study for Georgia was explored to determine new methods for stratifying mills and finding suitable sampling estimators. Estimators for roundwood receipts totals comprised several types: simple random sample, ratio, stratified sample, and combined ratio. Two stratification methods were examined: the Dalenius-Hodges (DH) square...

  3. Potential hazards due to food additives in oral hygiene products.

    PubMed

    Tuncer Budanur, Damla; Yas, Murat Cengizhan; Sepet, Elif

    2016-01-01

    Food additives used to preserve flavor or to enhance the taste and appearance of foods are also available in oral hygiene products. The aim of this review is to provide information concerning food additives in oral hygiene products and their adverse effects. A great many of food additives in oral hygiene products are potential allergens and they may lead to allergic reactions such as urticaria, contact dermatitis, rhinitis, and angioedema. Dental practitioners, as well as health care providers, must be aware of the possibility of allergic reactions due to food additives in oral hygiene products. Proper dosage levels, delivery vehicles, frequency, potential benefits, and adverse effects of oral health products should be explained completely to the patients. There is a necessity to raise the awareness among dental professionals on this subject and to develop a data gathering system for possible adverse reactions.

  4. Estimating the effects of potential climate and land use changes on hydrologic processes of a large agriculture dominated watershed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Neupane, Ram P.; Kumar, Sandeep

    2015-10-01

    Land use and climate are two major components that directly influence catchment hydrologic processes, and therefore better understanding of their effects is crucial for future land use planning and water resources management. We applied Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess the effects of potential land use change and climate variability on hydrologic processes of large agriculture dominated Big Sioux River (BSR) watershed located in North Central region of USA. Future climate change scenarios were simulated using average output of temperature and precipitation data derived from Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) (B1, A1B, and A2) for end-21st century. Land use change was modeled spatially based on historic long-term pattern of agricultural transformation in the basin, and included the expansion of corn (Zea mays L.) cultivation by 2, 5, and 10%. We estimated higher surface runoff in all land use scenarios with maximum increase of 4% while expanding 10% corn cultivation in the basin. Annual stream discharge was estimated higher with maximum increase of 72% in SRES-B1 attributed from higher groundwater contribution of 152% in the same scenario. We assessed increased precipitation during spring season but the summer precipitation decreased substantially in all climate change scenarios. Similar to decreased summer precipitation, discharge of the BSR also decreased potentially affecting agricultural production due to reduced future water availability during crop growing season in the basin. However, combined effects of potential land use change with climate variability enhanced for higher annual discharge of the BSR. Therefore, these estimations can be crucial for implications of future land use planning and water resources management of the basin.

  5. Flood frequency estimates and documented and potential extreme peak discharges in Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tortorelli, Robert L.; McCabe, Lan P.

    2001-01-01

    Knowledge of the magnitude and frequency of floods is required for the safe and economical design of highway bridges, culverts, dams, levees, and other structures on or near streams; and for flood plain management programs. Flood frequency estimates for gaged streamflow sites were updated, documented extreme peak discharges for gaged and miscellaneous measurement sites were tabulated, and potential extreme peak discharges for Oklahoma streamflow sites were estimated. Potential extreme peak discharges, derived from the relation between documented extreme peak discharges and contributing drainage areas, can provide valuable information concerning the maximum peak discharge that could be expected at a stream site. Potential extreme peak discharge is useful in conjunction with flood frequency analysis to give the best evaluation of flood risk at a site. Peak discharge and flood frequency for selected recurrence intervals from 2 to 500 years were estimated for 352 gaged streamflow sites. Data through 1999 water year were used from streamflow-gaging stations with at least 8 years of record within Oklahoma or about 25 kilometers into the bordering states of Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, New Mexico, and Texas. These sites were in unregulated basins, and basins affected by regulation, urbanization, and irrigation. Documented extreme peak discharges and associated data were compiled for 514 sites in and near Oklahoma, 352 with streamflow-gaging stations and 162 at miscellaneous measurements sites or streamflow-gaging stations with short record, with a total of 671 measurements.The sites are fairly well distributed statewide, however many streams, large and small, have never been monitored. Potential extreme peak-discharge curves were developed for streamflow sites in hydrologic regions of the state based on documented extreme peak discharges and the contributing drainage areas. Two hydrologic regions, east and west, were defined using 98 degrees 15 minutes longitude as the

  6. Spatio-temporal variation in click production rates of beaked whales: Implications for passive acoustic density estimation.

    PubMed

    Warren, Victoria E; Marques, Tiago A; Harris, Danielle; Thomas, Len; Tyack, Peter L; Aguilar de Soto, Natacha; Hickmott, Leigh S; Johnson, Mark P

    2017-03-01

    Passive acoustic monitoring has become an increasingly prevalent tool for estimating density of marine mammals, such as beaked whales, which vocalize often but are difficult to survey visually. Counts of acoustic cues (e.g., vocalizations), when corrected for detection probability, can be translated into animal density estimates by applying an individual cue production rate multiplier. It is essential to understand variation in these rates to avoid biased estimates. The most direct way to measure cue production rate is with animal-mounted acoustic recorders. This study utilized data from sound recording tags deployed on Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris, 19 deployments) and Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris, 16 deployments) beaked whales, in two locations per species, to explore spatial and temporal variation in click production rates. No spatial or temporal variation was detected within the average click production rate of Blainville's beaked whales when calculated over dive cycles (including silent periods between dives); however, spatial variation was detected when averaged only over vocal periods. Cuvier's beaked whales exhibited significant spatial and temporal variation in click production rates within vocal periods and when silent periods were included. This evidence of variation emphasizes the need to utilize appropriate cue production rates when estimating density from passive acoustic data.

  7. Estimation of organic carbon loss potential in north of Iran

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahriari, A.; Khormali, F.; Kehl, M.; Welp, G.; Scholz, Ch.

    2009-04-01

    The development of sustainable agricultural systems requires techniques that accurately monitor changes in the amount, nature and breakdown rate of soil organic matter and can compare the rate of breakdown of different plant or animal residues under different management systems. In this research, the study area includes the southern alluvial and piedmont plains of Gorgan River extended from east to west direction in Golestan province, Iran. Samples from 10 soil series and were collected from cultivation depth (0-30 cm). Permanganate-oxidizable carbon (POC) an index of soil labile carbon, was used to show soil potential loss of organic carbon. In this index shows the maximum loss of OC in a given soil. Maximum loss of OC for each soil series was estimated through POC and bulk density (BD). The potential loss of OC were estimated between 1253263 and 2410813 g/ha Carbon. Stable organic constituents in the soil include humic substances and other organic macromolecules that are intrinsically resistant against microbial attack, or that are physically protected by adsorption on mineral surfaces or entrapment within clay and mineral aggregates. However, the (Clay + Silt)/OC ratio had a negative significant (p < 0.001) correlation with POC content, confirming the preserving effect of fine particle.

  8. [Cytotoxicity of chemicals used in household products: estimation of eye irritating potency of 25 chemicals tested during 1991-1996].

    PubMed

    Ikarashi, Y; Tsuchiya, T; Nakamura, A

    1997-01-01

    Cytotoxicity potential of chemicals was evaluated by determining the concentrations inducing 50% reduction of neutral red (NR) uptake into Chinese hamster fibroblast V79 cells compared with control culture (IC50). The results of cytotoxicity test for surfactants with the data produced by the in vivo Draize eye and skin irritation test were compared. There was a good correlation between cytotoxicity and eye irritation score obtained from the Draize test. In contrast, no correlation was observed between Draize skin irritation score and cytotoxic potential of chemicals. Therefore, the NR cytotoxicity test was regarded as a possible in vitro model for predicting eye irritation. Based on the IC50 values in the NR cytotoxicity test, the eye irritation classification (weak, moderate and strong) for each chemical used in household products has been established. We evaluated the cytotoxicity of 25 chemicals used for antimicrobial, rubber accelerator, rubber antioxidant, ultraviolet absorber etc. in household products, and estimated the eye irritating potency of these test chemicals according to the criterion.

  9. Estimating farm-gate ammonia emissions from major animal production systems in China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Zhiling; Ma, Wenqi; Zhu, Gaodi; Roelcke, Marco

    2013-11-01

    Ammonia (NH3) emissions from livestock production in China are an important contributor to the global NH3 budget. In this study, by estimating total nitrogen (N) intake based on herd structures and excreted N, a mass balance model was used to estimate NH3 losses from animal housing and manure storage facilities of dairy cattle, beef cattle, pigs, broiler and layer productions within animal farm gate and their corresponding NH3 emission intensities on the basis of animal products, N and protein in animal products. In 2009, NH3 emissions from pigs, layers, beef and dairy cattle and broiler production systems in China were 1.23, 0.52, 0.24, 0.21 and 0.09 million tons, respectively. The NH3 emission intensities were 26.6 g NH3-N kg-1 of pork, 28.1 g NH3-N kg-1 of layer eggs, 39.4 g NH3-N kg-1 of beef meat, 6.0 g NH3-N kg-1 of dairy milk and 4.6 g NH3-N kg-1 of chicken meat, or 1260 (pigs), 1514 (layers), 1297 (beef), 1107 (dairy) and 123 g NH3-N (broilers) kg-1 N in animal products. Of the sectors of NH3 emission, manure storage facilities and farmyard manure (FYM) in animal housing were the major contributors to the total NH3 emissions except for layers; housing emissions from slurry were also major contributors for dairy and pig production.

  10. Potential consequences of climate change for primary production and fish production in large marine ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Blanchard, Julia L; Jennings, Simon; Holmes, Robert; Harle, James; Merino, Gorka; Allen, J Icarus; Holt, Jason; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Barange, Manuel

    2012-11-05

    Existing methods to predict the effects of climate change on the biomass and production of marine communities are predicated on modelling the interactions and dynamics of individual species, a very challenging approach when interactions and distributions are changing and little is known about the ecological mechanisms driving the responses of many species. An informative parallel approach is to develop size-based methods. These capture the properties of food webs that describe energy flux and production at a particular size, independent of species' ecology. We couple a physical-biogeochemical model with a dynamic, size-based food web model to predict the future effects of climate change on fish biomass and production in 11 large regional shelf seas, with and without fishing effects. Changes in potential fish production are shown to most strongly mirror changes in phytoplankton production. We project declines of 30-60% in potential fish production across some important areas of tropical shelf and upwelling seas, most notably in the eastern Indo-Pacific, the northern Humboldt and the North Canary Current. Conversely, in some areas of the high latitude shelf seas, the production of pelagic predators was projected to increase by 28-89%.

  11. Abuse liability assessment of tobacco products including potential reduced exposure products.

    PubMed

    Carter, Lawrence P; Stitzer, Maxine L; Henningfield, Jack E; O'Connor, Rich J; Cummings, K Michael; Hatsukami, Dorothy K

    2009-12-01

    The harm produced by tobacco products is a result of frequent use of a highly toxic product. Reducing the adverse public health impact of tobacco products might be most effectively achieved by reducing the likelihood of their use and the toxicity of the products. Products that retain some characteristics of cigarettes but have been altered with the intention of reducing toxicity have been referred to as modified risk tobacco products or potential reduced exposure products (MRTP/PREP). Evaluation of their content, emission, and toxicity is discussed in other articles in this special issue. Here, we discuss the methodology that has been used to examine the likelihood of abuse or addiction. Abuse liability assessment (ALA) methodology has been used by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other drug regulatory agencies world-wide for decades to assess the risks posed by a wide variety of pharmacologically active substances. ALA is routinely required among other evaluations of safety during the pre-market assessment of new drugs, and is continually adapted to meet the challenges posed by new drug classes and drug formulations. In the 2009 law giving FDA regulation over tobacco products, FDA is now required to evaluate new tobacco products including MRTP/PREPs to determine their risk for abuse and toxicity at the population level. This article describes the traditional tools and methods of ALA that can be used to evaluate new tobacco and nicotine products including MRTP/PREPs. Such ALA data could contribute to the scientific foundation on which future public policy decisions are based.

  12. Regional crop gross primary production and yield estimation using fused Landsat-MODIS data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, M.; Kimball, J. S.; Maneta, M. P.; Maxwell, B. D.; Moreno, A.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate crop yield assessments using satellite-based remote sensing are of interest for the design of regional policies that promote agricultural resiliency and food security. However, the application of current vegetation productivity algorithms derived from global satellite observations are generally too coarse to capture cropland heterogeneity. Merging information from sensors with reciprocal spatial and temporal resolution can improve the accuracy of these retrievals. In this study, we estimate annual crop yields for seven important crop types -alfalfa, barley, corn, durum wheat, peas, spring wheat and winter wheat over Montana, United States (U.S.) from 2008 to 2015. Yields are estimated as the product of gross primary production (GPP) and a crop-specific harvest index (HI) at 30 m spatial resolution. To calculate GPP we used a modified form of the MOD17 LUE algorithm driven by a 30 m 8-day fused NDVI dataset constructed by blending Landsat (5 or 7) and MODIS Terra reflectance data. The fused 30-m NDVI record shows good consistency with the original Landsat and MODIS data, but provides better spatiotemporal information on cropland vegetation growth. The resulting GPP estimates capture characteristic cropland patterns and seasonal variations, while the estimated annual 30 m crop yield results correspond favorably with county-level crop yield data (r=0.96, p<0.05). The estimated crop yield performance was generally lower, but still favorable in relation to field-scale crop yield surveys (r=0.42, p<0.01). Our methods and results are suitable for operational applications at regional scales.

  13. A new method for ageing Marbled Murrelets and the effect on productivity estimates

    Treesearch

    L.L. Long; C.J. Ralph; S. Miller

    2001-01-01

    Accurate knowledge of the number of newly-fledged juveniles offshore is critical to estimates of productivity of the threatened Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus). We describe a method for collecting productivity data which allows researchers to objectively evaluate age determinations and their effect on juvenile percentages. This has the...

  14. Biogas from poultry waste-production and energy potential.

    PubMed

    Dornelas, Karoline Carvalho; Schneider, Roselene Maria; do Amaral, Adriana Garcia

    2017-08-01

    The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of heat treatment on poultry litter with different levels of reutilisation for potential generation of biogas in experimental biodigesters. Chicken litter used was obtained from two small-scale poultry houses where 14 birds m -2 were housed for a period of 42 days per cycle. Litter from aviary 1 received no heat treatment while each batch of litter produced from aviary 2 underwent a fermentation process. For each batch taken, two biodigesters were set for each aviary, with hydraulic retention time of 35 days. The efficiency of the biodigestion process was evaluated by biogas production in relation to total solids (TS) added, as well as the potential for power generation. Quantified volumes ranged from 8.9 to 41.1 L of biogas for aviary 1, and 6.7 to 33.9 L of biogas for aviary 2, with the sixth bed reused from both aviaries registering the largest biogas potential. Average potential biogas in m 3  kg -1 of TS added were 0.022 to 0.034 for aviary 1 and 0.015 to 0.022 for aviary 2. Energy values ​​of biogas produced were calculated based on calorific value and ranged from 0.06 to 0.33 kWh for chicken litter without fermentation and from 0.05 to 0.27 kWh for chicken litter with fermentation. It was concluded that the re-use of poultry litter resulted in an increase in biogas production, and the use of fermentation in the microbiological treatment of poultry litter seems to have negatively influenced production of biogas.

  15. Estimating Leaf Water Potential of Giant Sequoia Trees from Airborne Hyperspectral Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francis, E. J.; Asner, G. P.

    2015-12-01

    Recent drought-induced forest dieback events have motivated research on the mechanisms of tree survival and mortality during drought. Leaf water potential, a measure of the force exerted by the evaporation of water from the leaf surface, is an indicator of plant water stress and can help predict tree mortality in response to drought. Scientists have traditionally measured water potentials on a tree-by-tree basis, but have not been able to produce maps of tree water potential at the scale of a whole forest, leaving forest managers unaware of forest drought stress patterns and their ecosystem-level consequences. Imaging spectroscopy, a technique for remote measurement of chemical properties, has been used to successfully estimate leaf water potentials in wheat and maize crops and pinyon-pine and juniper trees, but these estimates have never been scaled to the canopy level. We used hyperspectral reflectance data collected by the Carnegie Airborne Observatory (CAO) to map leaf water potentials of giant sequoia trees (Sequoiadendron giganteum) in an 800-hectare grove in Sequoia National Park. During the current severe drought in California, we measured predawn and midday leaf water potentials of 48 giant sequoia trees, using the pressure bomb method on treetop foliage samples collected with tree-climbing techniques. The CAO collected hyperspectral reflectance data at 1-meter resolution from the same grove within 1-2 weeks of the tree-level measurements. A partial least squares regression was used to correlate reflectance data extracted from the 48 focal trees with their water potentials, producing a model that predicts water potential of giant sequoia trees. Results show that giant sequoia trees can be mapped in the imagery with a classification accuracy of 0.94, and we predicted the water potential of the mapped trees to assess 1) similarities and differences between a leaf water potential map and a canopy water content map produced from airborne hyperspectral data, 2

  16. A Bayesian approach to estimate evoked potentials.

    PubMed

    Sparacino, Giovanni; Milani, Stefano; Arslan, Edoardo; Cobelli, Claudio

    2002-06-01

    Several approaches, based on different assumptions and with various degree of theoretical sophistication and implementation complexity, have been developed for improving the measurement of evoked potentials (EP) performed by conventional averaging (CA). In many of these methods, one of the major challenges is the exploitation of a priori knowledge. In this paper, we present a new method where the 2nd-order statistical information on the background EEG and on the unknown EP, necessary for the optimal filtering of each sweep in a Bayesian estimation framework, is, respectively, estimated from pre-stimulus data and obtained through a multiple integration of a white noise process model. The latter model is flexible (i.e. it can be employed for a large class of EP) and simple enough to be easily identifiable from the post-stimulus data thanks to a smoothing criterion. The mean EP is determined as the weighted average of the filtered sweeps, where each weight is inversely proportional to the expected value of the norm of the correspondent filter error, a quantity determinable thanks to the employment of the Bayesian approach. The performance of the new approach is shown on both simulated and real auditory EP. A signal-to-noise ratio enhancement is obtained that can allow the (possibly automatic) identification of peak latencies and amplitudes with less sweeps than those required by CA. For cochlear EP, the method also allows the audiology investigator to gather new and clinically important information. The possibility of handling single-sweep analysis with further development of the method is also addressed.

  17. Three-Dimensional Reconstruction and Solar Energy Potential Estimation of Buildings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Y.; Li, M.; Cheng, L.; Xu, H.; Li, S.; Liu, X.

    2017-12-01

    In the context of the construction of low-carbon cities, green cities and eco-cities, the ability of the airborne and mobile LiDAR should be explored in urban renewable energy research. As the main landscape in urban environment, buildings have large regular envelopes could receive a huge amount of solar radiation. In this study, a relatively complete calculation scheme about building roof and façade solar utilization potential is proposed, using building three-dimensional geometric feature information. For measuring the city-level building solar irradiance, the precise three-dimensional building roof and façade models should be first reconstructed from the airborne and mobile LiDAR, respectively. In order to obtaining the precise geometric structure of building facades from the mobile LiDAR data, a new method for structure detection and the three-dimensional reconstruction of building façades from mobile LiDAR data is proposed. The method consists of three steps: the preprocessing of façade points, the detection of façade structure, the restoration and reconstruction of building façade. As a result, the reconstruction method can effectively deal with missing areas caused by occlusion, viewpoint limitation, and uneven point density, as well as realizing the highly complete 3D reconstruction of a building façade. Furthermore, the window areas can be excluded for more accurate estimation of solar utilization potential. After then, the solar energy utilization potential of global building roofs and facades is estimate by using the solar irradiance model, which combine the analysis of the building shade and sky diffuse, based on the analysis of the geometrical structure of buildings.

  18. A framework for estimating potential fluid flow from digital imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luttman, Aaron; Bollt, Erik M.; Basnayake, Ranil; Kramer, Sean; Tufillaro, Nicholas B.

    2013-09-01

    Given image data of a fluid flow, the flow field, ⟨u,v⟩, governing the evolution of the system can be estimated using a variational approach to optical flow. Assuming that the flow field governing the advection is the symplectic gradient of a stream function or the gradient of a potential function—both falling under the category of a potential flow—it is natural to re-frame the optical flow problem to reconstruct the stream or potential function directly rather than the components of the flow individually. There are several advantages to this framework. Minimizing a functional based on the stream or potential function rather than based on the components of the flow will ensure that the computed flow is a potential flow. Next, this approach allows a more natural method for imposing scientific priors on the computed flow, via regularization of the optical flow functional. Also, this paradigm shift gives a framework—rather than an algorithm—and can be applied to nearly any existing variational optical flow technique. In this work, we develop the mathematical formulation of the potential optical flow framework and demonstrate the technique on synthetic flows that represent important dynamics for mass transport in fluid flows, as well as a flow generated by a satellite data-verified ocean model of temperature transport.

  19. Satellite Driven Estimation of Primary Productivity of Agroecosystems in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patel, N. R.; Dadhwal, V. K.; Agrawal, S.; Saha, S. K.

    2011-08-01

    Earth observation driven ecosystem modeling have played a major role in estimation of carbon budget components such as gross primary productivity (GPP) and net primary production (NPP) over terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture. The present study therefore evaluate satellite-driven vegetation photosynthesis (VPM) model for GPP estimation over agro-ecosystems in India by using time series of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from SPOT-VEGETATION, cloud cover observation from MODIS, coarse-grid C3/C4 crop fraction and decadal grided databases of maximum and minimum temperatures. Parameterization of VPM parameters e.g. maximum light use efficiency (ɛ*) and Tscalar was done based on eddy-covariance measurements and literature survey. Incorporation of C3/C4 crop fraction is a modification to commonly used constant maximum LUE. Modeling results from VPM captured very well the geographical pattern of GPP and NPP over cropland in India. Well managed agro-ecosystems in Trans-Gangetic and upper Indo-Gangetic plains had the highest magnitude of GPP with peak GPP during kharif occurs in sugarcane-wheat system (western UP) and it occurs in rice-wheat system (Punjab) during Rabi season. Overall, croplands in these plains had more annual GPP (> 1000 g C m-2) and NPP (> 600 g C m-2) due to input-intensive cultivation. Desertic tracts of western Rajasthan showed the least GPP and NPP values. Country-level contribution of croplands to national GPP and NPP amounts to1.34 Pg C year-1 and 0.859 Pg C year-1, respectively. Modeled estimates of cropland NPP agrees well with ground-based estimates for north-western India (R2 = 0.63 and RMSE = 108 g C m-2). Future research will focus on evaluating the VPM model with medium resolution sensors such as AWiFS and MODIS for rice-wheat system and validating with eddy-covariance measurements.

  20. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  1. Mangrove production and carbon sinks: A revision of global budget estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bouillon, S.; Borges, A.V.; Castaneda-Moya, E.; Diele, K.; Dittmar, T.; Duke, N.C.; Kristensen, E.; Lee, S.-Y.; Marchand, C.; Middelburg, J.J.; Rivera-Monroy, V. H.; Smith, T. J.; Twilley, R.R.

    2008-01-01

    Mangrove forests are highly productive but globally threatened coastal ecosystems, whose role in the carbon budget of the coastal zone has long been debated. Here we provide a comprehensive synthesis of the available data on carbon fluxes in mangrove ecosystems. A reassessment of global mangrove primary production from the literature results in a conservative estimate of ???-218 ?? 72 Tg C a-1. When using the best available estimates of various carbon sinks (organic carbon export, sediment burial, and mineralization), it appears that >50% of the carbon fixed by mangrove vegetation is unaccounted for. This unaccounted carbon sink is conservatively estimated at ??? 112 ?? 85 Tg C a-1, equivalent in magnitude to ??? 30-40% of the global riverine organic carbon input to the coastal zone. Our analysis suggests that mineralization is severely underestimated, and that the majority of carbon export from mangroves to adjacent waters occurs as dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). CO2 efflux from sediments and creek waters and tidal export of DIC appear to be the major sinks. These processes are quantitatively comparable in magnitude to the unaccounted carbon sink in current budgets, but are not yet adequately constrained with the limited published data available so far. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

  2. "The fairer the better?" Use of potentially toxic skin bleaching products.

    PubMed

    Darj, Elisabeth; Infanti, Jennifer J; Ahlberg, Beth Maina; Okumu, Jecinta

    2015-12-01

    Skin bleaching is a widespread phenomenon in spite of their potentially toxic health effects. This study aimed to determine if such products are used in Sweden in particular by pregnant women, furthermore to explore immigrant women's view skin bleaching. 455 pregnant women completed a questionnaire, which were statistically analysed. Focus groups and individual interviews were conducted with immigrant women, content analysis was used to assess the data. Skin bleaching products were used by 2.6% of pregnant women, significantlly more by women born in non-European countries. Motivating factors were associated with the concept of beauty together with social and economic advantages. The women had low awareness of the potential health risks of the products. Regulations on the trade of skin bleaching products have not effectively reduced the availability of the products in Sweden nor the popularity of skin bleaching. There is need for further research especially among pregnant women and possible effects on newborns. Products should be tested for toxicity. Public health information should be developed and health care providers educated and aware of this practice, due to their potential negative health implications.

  3. Global Marine Productivity and Living-Phytoplankton Carbon Biomass Estimated from a Physiological Growth Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arteaga, L.; Pahlow, M.; Oschlies, A.

    2016-02-01

    Primay production by marine phytoplankton essentially drives the oceanic biological carbon pump. Global productivity estimates are commonly founded on chlorophyll-based primary production models. However, a major drawback of most of these models is that variations in chlorophyll concentration do not necessarily account for changes in phytoplankton biomass resulting from the physiological regulation of the chlorophyll-to-carbon ratio (Chl:C). Here we present phytoplankton production rates and surface phytoplankton C concentrations for the global ocean for 2005-2010, obtained by combining satellite Chl observations with a mechanistic model for the acclimation of phytoplankton stoichiometry to variations in nutrients, light and temperature. We compare our inferred phytoplankton C concentrations with an independent estimate of surface particulate organic carbon (POC) to identify for the first time the global contribution of living phytoplankton to total POC in the surface ocean. Our annual primary production (46 Pg C yr-1) is in good agreement with other C-based model estimates obtained from satellite observations. We find that most of the oligotrophic surface ocean is dominated by living phytoplankton biomass (between 30-70% of total particulate carbon). Lower contributions are found in the tropical Pacific (10-30% phytoplankton) and the Southern Ocean (≈ 10%). Our method provides a novel analytical tool for identifying changes in marine plankton communities and carbon cycling.

  4. Estimating postfire changes in production and value of Northern Rocky Mountain-Intermountain rangelands

    Treesearch

    David L. Peterson; Patrick J. Flowers

    1984-01-01

    A simulation model was developed to estimate postfire changes in the production and value of grazing lands in the Northern Rocky Mountain-Intermountain region. Ecological information and management decisions were used to simulate expected changes in production and value after wildfire in six major rangeland types: permanent forested range (ponderosa pine), transitory...

  5. A Mathematical Model for Estimation of Kelp Bed Productivity: Age Dependence and Contributions of Subsurface Kelp

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trumbo, S. K.; Palacios, S. L.; Zimmerman, R. C.; Kudela, R. M.

    2012-12-01

    Macrocystis pyrifera, giant kelp, is a major primary producer of the California coastal ocean that provides habitat for marine species through the formation of massive kelp beds. The estimation of primary productivity of these kelp beds is essential for a complete understanding of their health and of the biogeochemistry of the region. Current methods involve either the application of a proportionality constant to remotely sensed biomass or in situ frond density measurements. The purpose of this research was to improve upon conventional primary productivity estimates by developing a model which takes into account the spectral differences among juvenile, mature, and senescent tissues as well as the photosynthetic contributions of subsurface kelp. A modified version of a seagrass productivity model (Zimmerman 2006) was used to quantify carbon fixation. Inputs included estimates of the underwater light field as computed by solving the radiative transfer equation (with the Hydrolight(TM) software package) and biological parameters obtained from the literature. It was found that mature kelp is the most efficient primary producer, especially in light-limited environments, due to increased light absorptance. It was also found that incoming light attenuates below useful levels for photosynthesis more rapidly than has been previously accounted for in productivity estimates, with productivity dropping below half maximum at approximately 0.75 m. As a case study for comparison with the biomass method, the model was applied to Isla Vista kelp bed in Santa Barbara, using area estimates from the MODIS-ASTER Simulator (MASTER). A graphical user-interface was developed for users to provide inputs to run the kelp productivity model under varying conditions. Accurately quantifying kelp productivity is essential for understanding its interaction with offshore ecosystems as well as its contribution to the coastal carbon cycle.

  6. Cardiac-Specific Conversion Factors to Estimate Radiation Effective Dose From Dose-Length Product in Computed Tomography.

    PubMed

    Trattner, Sigal; Halliburton, Sandra; Thompson, Carla M; Xu, Yanping; Chelliah, Anjali; Jambawalikar, Sachin R; Peng, Boyu; Peters, M Robert; Jacobs, Jill E; Ghesani, Munir; Jang, James J; Al-Khalidi, Hussein; Einstein, Andrew J

    2018-01-01

    This study sought to determine updated conversion factors (k-factors) that would enable accurate estimation of radiation effective dose (ED) for coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) and calcium scoring performed on 12 contemporary scanner models and current clinical cardiac protocols and to compare these methods to the standard chest k-factor of 0.014 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 . Accurate estimation of ED from cardiac CT scans is essential to meaningfully compare the benefits and risks of different cardiac imaging strategies and optimize test and protocol selection. Presently, ED from cardiac CT is generally estimated by multiplying a scanner-reported parameter, the dose-length product, by a k-factor which was determined for noncardiac chest CT, using single-slice scanners and a superseded definition of ED. Metal-oxide-semiconductor field-effect transistor radiation detectors were positioned in organs of anthropomorphic phantoms, which were scanned using all cardiac protocols, 120 clinical protocols in total, on 12 CT scanners representing the spectrum of scanners from 5 manufacturers (GE, Hitachi, Philips, Siemens, Toshiba). Organ doses were determined for each protocol, and ED was calculated as defined in International Commission on Radiological Protection Publication 103. Effective doses and scanner-reported dose-length products were used to determine k-factors for each scanner model and protocol. k-Factors averaged 0.026 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 (95% confidence interval: 0.0258 to 0.0266) and ranged between 0.020 and 0.035 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 . The standard chest k-factor underestimates ED by an average of 46%, ranging from 30% to 60%, depending on scanner, mode, and tube potential. Factors were higher for prospective axial versus retrospective helical scan modes, calcium scoring versus coronary CTA, and higher (100 to 120 kV) versus lower (80 kV) tube potential and varied among scanner models (range of average k-factors: 0.0229 to 0.0277 mSv·mGy -1 cm -1 ). Cardiac k

  7. Using neural networks to represent potential surfaces as sums of products.

    PubMed

    Manzhos, Sergei; Carrington, Tucker

    2006-11-21

    By using exponential activation functions with a neural network (NN) method we show that it is possible to fit potentials to a sum-of-products form. The sum-of-products form is desirable because it reduces the cost of doing the quadratures required for quantum dynamics calculations. It also greatly facilitates the use of the multiconfiguration time dependent Hartree method. Unlike potfit product representation algorithm, the new NN approach does not require using a grid of points. It also produces sum-of-products potentials with fewer terms. As the number of dimensions is increased, we expect the advantages of the exponential NN idea to become more significant.

  8. Regional prediction of long-term landfill gas to energy potential.

    PubMed

    Amini, Hamid R; Reinhart, Debra R

    2011-01-01

    Quantifying landfill gas to energy (LFGTE) potential as a source of renewable energy is difficult due to the challenges involved in modeling landfill gas (LFG) generation. In this paper a methodology is presented to estimate LFGTE potential on a regional scale over a 25-year timeframe with consideration of modeling uncertainties. The methodology was demonstrated for the US state of Florida, as a case study, and showed that Florida could increase the annual LFGTE production by more than threefold by 2035 through installation of LFGTE facilities at all landfills. The estimated electricity production potential from Florida LFG is equivalent to removing some 70 million vehicles from highways or replacing over 800 million barrels of oil consumption during the 2010-2035 timeframe. Diverting food waste could significantly reduce fugitive LFG emissions, while having minimal effect on the LFGTE potential; whereas, achieving high diversion goals through increased recycling will result in reduced uncollected LFG and significant loss of energy production potential which may be offset by energy savings from material recovery and reuse. Estimates showed that the power density for Florida LFGTE production could reach as high as 10 Wm(-2) with optimized landfill operation and energy production practices. The environmental benefits from increased lifetime LFG collection efficiencies magnify the value of LFGTE projects. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. MHODE: a local-homogeneity theory for improved source-parameter estimation of potential fields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fedi, Maurizio; Florio, Giovanni; Paoletti, Valeria

    2015-08-01

    We describe a multihomogeneity theory for source-parameter estimation of potential fields. Similar to what happens for random source models, where the monofractal scaling-law has been generalized into a multifractal law, we propose to generalize the homogeneity law into a multihomogeneity law. This allows a theoretically correct approach to study real-world potential fields, which are inhomogeneous and so do not show scale invariance, except in the asymptotic regions (very near to or very far from their sources). Since the scaling properties of inhomogeneous fields change with the scale of observation, we show that they may be better studied at a set of scales than at a single scale and that a multihomogeneous model is needed to explain its complex scaling behaviour. In order to perform this task, we first introduce fractional-degree homogeneous fields, to show that: (i) homogeneous potential fields may have fractional or integer degree; (ii) the source-distributions for a fractional-degree are not confined in a bounded region, similarly to some integer-degree models, such as the infinite line mass and (iii) differently from the integer-degree case, the fractional-degree source distributions are no longer uniform density functions. Using this enlarged set of homogeneous fields, real-world anomaly fields are studied at different scales, by a simple search, at any local window W, for the best homogeneous field of either integer or fractional-degree, this yielding a multiscale set of local homogeneity-degrees and depth estimations which we call multihomogeneous model. It is so defined a new technique of source parameter estimation (Multi-HOmogeneity Depth Estimation, MHODE), permitting retrieval of the source parameters of complex sources. We test the method with inhomogeneous fields of finite sources, such as faults or cylinders, and show its effectiveness also in a real-case example. These applications show the usefulness of the new concepts, multihomogeneity and

  10. Combining LANDSAT MSS, aerial photographs and ground measurements to estimate rangeland productivity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gialdini, M. J.

    1981-01-01

    The production of a vegetation map of over 2.2 million acres with detail down to the plant community level, and the production of estimates of rangeland productivity (pounds of usable forage per acre for cattle) for a 500,000 acre subset of area with a design goal for accuracy and precision of + or - 20% at the 80% confidence level, are considered. The data consist of five groups: maps of area, LANDSAT data, digital terrain data, large scale aerial photography, and ground plots. An outline of the data acquisition and data reduction schemes are presented.

  11. The potential of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) for the estimation of agroindustrial compost quality.

    PubMed

    Galvez-Sola, L; Moral, R; Perez-Murcia, M D; Perez-Espinosa, A; Bustamante, M A; Martinez-Sabater, E; Paredes, C

    2010-02-15

    Composting is an environmentally friendly alternative for the recycling of organic wastes and its use is increasing in recent years. An exhaustive monitoring of the composting process and of the final compost characteristics is necessary to certify that the values of compost characteristics are within the limits established by the legislation in order to obtain a safe and marketable product. The analysis of these parameters on each composting batch in the commercial composting plant is time-consuming and expensive. So, their estimation in the composting facilities based on the use of near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) could be an interesting approach in order to monitor compost quality. In this study, more than 300 samples from 20 different composting procedures were used to calibrate and validate the NIRS estimation of compost properties (pH, electrical conductivity (EC), total organic matter (TOM), total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and C/N ratio, macronutrient contents (N, P, K) and potentially pollutant element concentrations (Fe, Cu, Mn and Zn)). The composts used were elaborated using different organic wastes from agroindustrial activities (GS: grape stalk; EGM: exhausted grape marc; GM: grape marc; V: vinasse; CJW: citrus juice waste; Alpeorujo: olive-oil waste; AS: almond skin; EP: exhausted peat; TSW: tomato soup waste; SMS: spent mushroom substrate) co-composted with manures (CM: cattle manure; PM: poultry manure) or urban wastes (SS: sewage sludge) The estimation results showed that the NIRS technique needs to be fitted to each element and property, using specific spectrum transformations, in order to achieve an acceptable accuracy in the prediction. However, excellent prediction results were obtained for TOM and TOC, successful calibrations for pH, EC, Fe and Mn, and moderately successful estimations for TN, C/N ratio, P, K, Cu and Zn.

  12. A Rapid Protoyping Approach for the Evaluation of Potential GPM-Era Precipitation Products for Water Resources Management Applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anantharaj, V. G.; Houser, P. R.; Turk, F. J.; Peterson, C. A.; Hossain, F.; Moorhead, R. J.; Toll, D. L.; Mostovoy, G.

    2009-04-01

    societal benefits related to human health (soil moisture, climate and disease outbreak), homeland security (removal of chemical/biological/nuclear agents), flooding potential and warning, water availability, water quality, and agriculture and food security. In 2006, the NASA ASP sponsored two RPC experiments to evaluate potential GPM-era high resolution satellite precipitation products for water management applications. One of the current uncertainties involved in the GPM missions is the nature of the exact configuration of the constellations of satellites and hence the potential for the dynamic error characteristics over time of the precipitation estimates. For the RPC evaluations, we needed a satellite precipitation product that would be analogous to the GPM-era products. Our solution was to develop a suite of high resolution precipitation products, based on the NRL-Blend algorithm. We created a set of 10 different satellite precipitation estimates (hereafter referred to as the "GPM-proxy data"), using the currently available IR and microwave sensors. However, in each product we systematically left out sets of observations and/or sensors, such as AM orbits. The geographical focus of our study was the operational domain of the Arkansas Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) of the U.S. National Weather Service. We have evaluated the GPM-proxy data against the operational product (radar and gauge based) used by ABRFC. Further, we also performed a set of soil water content (SWC) sensitivity experiments using the Noah and Mosaic Land Surface Models (LSM) to quantify the impacts on water management applications involving land surface hydrology. Both the LSMs were forced with the same set of GPM-proxy data. Though the overall spatial patterns for both the models were similar, there were subtle differences in the respective model sensitivities to the different precipitation forcings. These experimental results illustrate the need for comprehensive pre-evaluations of applications

  13. Attributable Risk Analysis Reveals Potential Healthcare Savings from Increased Consumption of Dairy Products123

    PubMed Central

    Doidge, James C.; Segal, Leonie; Gospodarevskaya, Elena

    2012-01-01

    With rising burdens of obesity and chronic disease, the role of diet as a modifiable risk factor is of increasing public health interest. There is a growing body of evidence that low consumption of dairy products is associated with elevated risk of chronic metabolic and cardiovascular disorders. Surveys also suggest that dairy product consumption falls well below recommended targets for much of the population in many countries, including the USA, UK, and Australia. We reviewed the scientific literature on the health effects of dairy product consumption (both positive and negative) and used the best available evidence to estimate the direct healthcare expenditure and burden of disease [disability-adjusted life years (DALY)] attributable to low consumption of dairy products in Australia. We implemented a novel technique for estimating population attributable risk developed for application in nutrition and other areas in which exposure to risk is a continuous variable. We found that in the 2010–2011 financial year, AUD$2.0 billion (USD$2.1 billion, €1.6 billion, or ∼1.7% of direct healthcare expenditure) and the loss of 75,012 DALY were attributable to low dairy product consumption. In sensitivity analyses, varying core assumptions yielded corresponding estimates of AUD$1.1–3.8 billion (0.9–3.3%) and 38,299–151,061 DALY lost. The estimated healthcare cost attributable to low dairy product consumption is comparable with total spending on public health in Australia (AUD$2.0 billion in 2009–2010). These findings justify the development and evaluation of cost-effective interventions that use dairy products as a vector for reducing the costs of diet-related disease. PMID:22833660

  14. Estimates of occupational safety and health impacts resulting from large-scale production of major photovoltaic technologies

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Owens, T.; Ungers, L.; Briggs, T.

    1980-08-01

    The purpose of this study is to estimate both quantitatively and qualitatively, the worker and societal risks attributable to four photovoltaic cell (solar cell) production processes. Quantitative risk values were determined by use of statistics from the California semiconductor industry. The qualitative risk assessment was performed using a variety of both governmental and private sources of data. The occupational health statistics derived from the semiconductor industry were used to predict injury and fatality levels associated with photovoltaic cell manufacturing. The use of these statistics to characterize the two silicon processes described herein is defensible from the standpoint that many ofmore » the same process steps and materials are used in both the semiconductor and photovoltaic industries. These health statistics are less applicable to the gallium arsenide and cadmium sulfide manufacturing processes, primarily because of differences in the materials utilized. Although such differences tend to discourage any absolute comparisons among the four photovoltaic cell production processes, certain relative comparisons are warranted. To facilitate a risk comparison of the four processes, the number and severity of process-related chemical hazards were assessed. This qualitative hazard assessment addresses both the relative toxicity and the exposure potential of substances in the workplace. In addition to the worker-related hazards, estimates of process-related emissions and wastes are also provided.« less

  15. Summary of the reconnaissance investigation of the diamond resource potential and production capacity of Côte d’Ivoire

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.

    2012-01-01

    This study presents the results of a multiyear effort to monitor the diamond mining activities of Côte d’Ivoire’s two main diamond regions, Séguéla and Tortiya. The innovative approach developed for this study integrates archival reports and maps, high-resolution satellite imagery, and terrain modeling to assess the diamond resource potential and production capacity of the Séguéla and Tortiya deposits. A geologic resource assessment was conducted to calculate the remaining diamond reserves for Séguéla and Tortiya using archival geologic data, including gravel grade and thickness recorded by the Ivorian mining company Société pour le Développement Minier (SODEMI). These data were combined with terrain analysis and geomorphological maps in a geological process-driven model. After accounting for previous production, a total of 10,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Séguéla and a total of 1,100,000 carats are estimated to be remaining in Tortiya, based on currently known deposits.

  16. Using Geothermal Play Types as an Analogue for Estimating Potential Resource Size

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Terry, Rachel; Young, Katherine

    Blind geothermal systems are becoming increasingly common as more geothermal fields are developed. Geothermal development is known to have high risk in the early stages of a project development because reservoir characteristics are relatively unknown until wells are drilled. Play types (or occurrence models) categorize potential geothermal fields into groups based on geologic characteristics. To aid in lowering exploration risk, these groups' reservoir characteristics can be used as analogues in new site exploration. The play type schemes used in this paper were Moeck and Beardsmore play types (Moeck et al. 2014) and Brophy occurrence models (Brophy et al. 2011). Operatingmore » geothermal fields throughout the world were classified based on their associated play type, and then reservoir characteristics data were catalogued. The distributions of these characteristics were plotted in histograms to develop probability density functions for each individual characteristic. The probability density functions can be used as input analogues in Monte Carlo estimations of resource potential for similar play types in early exploration phases. A spreadsheet model was created to estimate resource potential in undeveloped fields. The user can choose to input their own values for each reservoir characteristic or choose to use the probability distribution functions provided from the selected play type. This paper also addresses the United States Geological Survey's 1978 and 2008 assessment of geothermal resources by comparing their estimated values to reported values from post-site development. Information from the collected data was used in the comparison for thirty developed sites in the United States. No significant trends or suggestions for methodologies could be made by the comparison.« less

  17. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; Phillips, Caleb; Elmore, Ryan

    2017-07-01

    We estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV’s ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely—from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city’s estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results, we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.

  18. Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the Western US

    PubMed Central

    NIRAULA, REWATI; MEIXNER, THOMAS; AJAMI, HOORI; RODELL, MATTHEW; GOCHIS, DAVID; CASTRO, CHRISTOPHER L.

    2018-01-01

    Groundwater is a major source of water in the western US. However, there are limited recharge estimates available in this region due to the complexity of recharge processes and the challenge of direct observations. Land surface Models (LSMs) could be a valuable tool for estimating current recharge and projecting changes due to future climate change. In this study, simulations of three LSMs (Noah, Mosaic and VIC) obtained from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) are used to estimate potential recharge in the western US. Modeled recharge was compared with published recharge estimates for several aquifers in the region. Annual recharge to precipitation ratios across the study basins varied from 0.01–15% for Mosaic, 3.2–42% for Noah, and 6.7–31.8% for VIC simulations. Mosaic consistently underestimates recharge across all basins. Noah captures recharge reasonably well in wetter basins, but overestimates it in drier basins. VIC slightly overestimates recharge in drier basins and slightly underestimates it for wetter basins. While the average annual recharge values vary among the models, the models were consistent in identifying high and low recharge areas in the region. Models agree in seasonality of recharge occurring dominantly during the spring across the region. Overall, our results highlight that LSMs have the potential to capture the spatial and temporal patterns as well as seasonality of recharge at large scales. Therefore, LSMs (specifically VIC and Noah) can be used as a tool for estimating future recharge rates in data limited regions. PMID:29618845

  19. New Methods for Estimating Seasonal Potential Climate Predictability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feng, Xia

    This study develops two new statistical approaches to assess the seasonal potential predictability of the observed climate variables. One is the univariate analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA) model, a combination of autoregressive (AR) model and analysis of variance (ANOVA). It has the advantage of taking into account the uncertainty of the estimated parameter due to sampling errors in statistical test, which is often neglected in AR based methods, and accounting for daily autocorrelation that is not considered in traditional ANOVA. In the ANOCOVA model, the seasonal signals arising from external forcing are determined to be identical or not to assess any interannual variability that may exist is potentially predictable. The bootstrap is an attractive alternative method that requires no hypothesis model and is available no matter how mathematically complicated the parameter estimator. This method builds up the empirical distribution of the interannual variance from the resamplings drawn with replacement from the given sample, in which the only predictability in seasonal means arises from the weather noise. These two methods are applied to temperature and water cycle components including precipitation and evaporation, to measure the extent to which the interannual variance of seasonal means exceeds the unpredictable weather noise compared with the previous methods, including Leith-Shukla-Gutzler (LSG), Madden, and Katz. The potential predictability of temperature from ANOCOVA model, bootstrap, LSG and Madden exhibits a pronounced tropical-extratropical contrast with much larger predictability in the tropics dominated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than in higher latitudes where strong internal variability lowers predictability. Bootstrap tends to display highest predictability of the four methods, ANOCOVA lies in the middle, while LSG and Madden appear to generate lower predictability. Seasonal precipitation from ANOCOVA, bootstrap, and Katz, resembling that

  20. Resource efficiency potential of selected technologies, products and strategies.

    PubMed

    Rohn, Holger; Pastewski, Nico; Lettenmeier, Michael; Wiesen, Klaus; Bienge, Katrin

    2014-03-01

    Despite rising prices for natural resources during the past 30 years, global consumption of natural resources is still growing. This leads to ecological, economical and social problems. So far, however, limited effort has been made to decrease the natural resource use of goods and services. While resource efficiency is already on the political agenda (EU and national resource strategies), there are still substantial knowledge gaps on the effectiveness of resource efficiency improvement strategies in different fields. In this context and within the project "Material Efficiency and Resource Conservation", the natural resource use of 22 technologies, products and strategies was calculated and their resource efficiency potential analysed. In a preliminary literature- and expert-based identification process, over 250 technologies, strategies, and products, which are regarded as resource efficient, were identified. Out of these, 22 subjects with high resource efficiency potential were selected. They cover a wide range of relevant technologies, products and strategies, such as energy supply and storage, Green IT, transportation, foodstuffs, agricultural engineering, design strategies, lightweight construction, as well as the concept "Using Instead of Owning". To assess the life-cycle-wide resource use of the selected subjects, the material footprint has been applied as a reliable indicator. In addition, sustainability criteria on a qualitative basis were considered. The results presented in this paper show significant resource efficiency potential for many technologies, products and strategies. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  1. A model for estimation of potential generation of waste electrical and electronic equipment in Brazil

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Araujo, Marcelo Guimaraes, E-mail: marcel_g@uol.com.br; Magrini, Alessandra; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

    2012-02-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Literature of WEEE generation in developing countries is reviewed. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We analyse existing estimates of WEEE generation for Brazil. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer We present a model for WEEE generation estimate. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer WEEE generation of 3.77 kg/capita year for 2008 is estimated. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Use of constant lifetime should be avoided for non-mature market products. - Abstract: Sales of electrical and electronic equipment are increasing dramatically in developing countries. Usually, there are no reliable data about quantities of the waste generated. A new law for solid waste management was enacted in Brazil in 2010, and the infrastructure to treat this waste mustmore » be planned, considering the volumes of the different types of electrical and electronic equipment generated. This paper reviews the literature regarding estimation of waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE), focusing on developing countries, particularly in Latin America. It briefly describes the current WEEE system in Brazil and presents an updated estimate of generation of WEEE. Considering the limited available data in Brazil, a model for WEEE generation estimation is proposed in which different methods are used for mature and non-mature market products. The results showed that the most important variable is the equipment lifetime, which requires a thorough understanding of consumer behavior to estimate. Since Brazil is a rapidly expanding market, the 'boom' in waste generation is still to come. In the near future, better data will provide more reliable estimation of waste generation and a clearer interpretation of the lifetime variable throughout the years.« less

  2. Assessing Potential Air Pollutant Emissions from Agricultural Feedstock Production using MOVES

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Eberle, Annika; Warner, Ethan; Zhang, Yi Min

    Biomass feedstock production is expected to grow as demand for biofuels and bioenergy increases. The change in air pollutant emissions that may result from large-scale biomass supply has implications for local air quality and human health. We developed spatially explicit emissions inventories for corn grain and six cellulosic feedstocks through the extension of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Feedstock Production Emissions to Air Model (FPEAM). These inventories include emissions of seven pollutants (nitrogen oxides, ammonia, volatile organic compounds, particulate matter, sulfur oxides, and carbon monoxide) generated from biomass establishment, maintenance, harvest, transportation, and biofuel preprocessing activities. By integrating the EPA'smore » MOtor Vehicle Emissions Simulator (MOVES) into FPEAM, we created a scalable framework to execute county-level runs of the MOVES-Onroad model for representative counties (i.e., those counties with the largest amount of cellulosic feedstock production in each state) on a national scale. We used these results to estimate emissions from the on-road transportation of biomass and combined them with county-level runs of the MOVES-Nonroad model to estimate emissions from agricultural equipment. We also incorporated documented emission factors to estimate emissions from chemical application and the operation of drying equipment for feedstock processing, and used methods developed by the EPA and the California Air Resources Board to estimate fugitive dust emissions. The model developed here could be applied to custom equipment budgets and is extensible to accommodate additional feedstocks and pollutants. Future work will also extend this model to analyze spatial boundaries beyond the county-scale (e.g., regional or sub-county levels).« less

  3. Company reference estimates for productivity loss due to migraine and productivity gains using rizatriptan 10 mg in Germany.

    PubMed

    Yoon, M-S; Katsarava, Z; Liedert, B; Krobot, K J; Diener, H C; Limmroth, V

    2006-03-01

    The prevalence of migraine in Germany is up to 14% in the female and up to 8% in the male population and peaks between the age of 35 and 45. Few studies have investigated the productivity loss and resulting costs attributable to migraine in Germany or addressed the question whether these costs can be reduced by optimal treatment. In recent years, 5-HT(1B/D) agonists (so-called triptans), a generation of drugs highly specific for migraine treatment, have been introduced. Seven 5-HT(1B/D) agonists have been approved in Germany with more than 20 dosage forms. We present a model that enables employers to estimate the annual cost of migraine and the annual cost that could be saved by treatment of migraine with rizatriptan compared with the use of non-specific antimigraine medication. A representative German company with 10,000 employees is used for the reference case analysis. This company is predicted to have 580 female and 284 male employees with migraine. These employees are estimated to lose 6992 workdays or 31.8 person years of productive effort annually due to migraine, valued approximately 1,431,719 euros. The value of work loss that could be avoided by treating migraine with rizatriptan is estimated at 619,094 euros annually. These data indicate that costs arising from lost productivity can be reduced by treating migraine headaches with a triptan.

  4. Preliminary Estimates of the Potential for Carbon Mitigation in European Soils Through No-Till Farming

    DOE Data Explorer

    Smith, P. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Powlson, D. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Glendining, M. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK; Smith, J. [University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK

    2003-01-01

    in this paper we estimate the European potential for carbon mitigation of no-till farming using results from European tillage experiments. Our calculations suggest some potential in terms of (a) reduced agricultural fossil fuel emissions, and (b) increased soil carbon sequestration. We estimate that 100% conversion to no-till farming would be likely to sequester about 23 Tg C y–11 in the European Union or about 43 Tg C y–1 in the wider Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union). In addition, up to 3.2 Tg C y–1 could be saved in agricultural fossil fuel emissions. Compared to estimates of the potential for carbon sequestration of other carbon mitigation options, no-till agriculture shows nearly twice the potential of scenarios whereby soils are amended with organic materials. Our calculations suggest that 100% conversion to no-till agriculture in Europe could mitigate all fossil fuel-carbon emissions from agriculture in Europe. However, this is equivalent to only about 4.1% of total anthropogenic CO2-carbon produced annually in Europe (excluding the former Soviet Union) which in turn is equivalent to about 0.8% of global annual anthropogenic CO2-carbon emissions.

  5. Clinical Trials Methods for Evaluation of Potential Reduced Exposure Products

    PubMed Central

    Hatsukami, Dorothy K.; Hanson, Karen; Briggs, Anna; Parascandola, Mark; Genkinger, Jeanine M.; O'Connor, Richard; Shields, Peter

    2009-01-01

    Potential reduced exposure tobacco products (PREPs) may have promise in reducing tobacco-related morbidity or mortality or may promote greater harm to individuals or the population. Critical to determining the risks or benefits from these products are valid human clinical trial PREP assessment methods. Assessment involves determining the effects of these products on biomarkers of exposure and of effect, which serve as proxies for harm, and assessing the potential for consumer uptake and abuse of the product. This article raises the critical methodological issues associated with PREP assessment, reviews the methods that have been used to assess PREPs, and describes the strengths and limitations of these methods. Additionally, recommendations for clinical trials PREP assessment methods and future research directions in this area based on this review and on the deliberations from a National Cancer Institute sponsored Clinical Trials PREP Methods Workshop are provided. PMID:19959672

  6. A New Approach for Validating Satellite Estimates of Soil Moisture Using Large-Scale Precipitation: Comparing AMSR-E Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tuttle, S. E.; Salvucci, G.

    2012-12-01

    Soil moisture influences many hydrological processes in the water and energy cycles, such as runoff generation, groundwater recharge, and evapotranspiration, and thus is important for climate modeling, water resources management, agriculture, and civil engineering. Large-scale estimates of soil moisture are produced almost exclusively from remote sensing, while validation of remotely sensed soil moisture has relied heavily on ground truthing, which is at an inherently smaller scale. Here we present a complementary method to determine the information content in different soil moisture products using only large-scale precipitation data (i.e. without modeling). This study builds on the work of Salvucci [2001], Saleem and Salvucci [2002], and Sun et al. [2011], in which precipitation was conditionally averaged according to soil moisture level, resulting in moisture-outflow curves that estimate the dependence of drainage, runoff, and evapotranspiration on soil moisture (i.e. sigmoidal relations that reflect stressed evapotranspiration for dry soils, roughly constant flux equal to potential evaporation minus capillary rise for moderately dry soils, and rapid drainage for very wet soils). We postulate that high quality satellite estimates of soil moisture, using large-scale precipitation data, will yield similar sigmoidal moisture-outflow curves to those that have been observed at field sites, while poor quality estimates will yield flatter, less informative curves that explain less of the precipitation variability. Following this logic, gridded ¼ degree NLDAS precipitation data were compared to three AMSR-E derived soil moisture products (VUA-NASA, or LPRM [Owe et al., 2001], NSIDC [Njoku et al., 2003], and NSIDC-LSP [Jones & Kimball, 2011]) for a period of nine years (2001-2010) across the contiguous United States. Gaps in the daily soil moisture data were filled using a multiple regression model reliant on past and future soil moisture and precipitation, and soil

  7. Production Functions for Water Delivery Systems: Analysis and Estimation Using Dual Cost Function and Implicit Price Specifications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teeples, Ronald; Glyer, David

    1987-05-01

    Both policy and technical analysis of water delivery systems have been based on cost functions that are inconsistent with or are incomplete representations of the neoclassical production functions of economics. We present a full-featured production function model of water delivery which can be estimated from a multiproduct, dual cost function. The model features implicit prices for own-water inputs and is implemented as a jointly estimated system of input share equations and a translog cost function. Likelihood ratio tests are performed showing that a minimally constrained, full-featured production function is a necessary specification of the water delivery operations in our sample. This, plus the model's highly efficient and economically correct parameter estimates, confirms the usefulness of a production function approach to modeling the economic activities of water delivery systems.

  8. A method countries can use to estimate changes in carbon stored in harvested wood products and the uncertainty of such estimates

    Treesearch

    Kenneth E. Skog; Kim Pingoud; James E. Smith

    2004-01-01

    A method is suggested for estimating additions to carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWP) and for evaluating uncertainty. The method uses data on HWP production and trade from several decades and tracks annual additions to pools of HWP in use, removals from use, additions to solid waste disposal sites (SWDS), and decay from SWDS. The method is consistent with...

  9. Antifungal potential of marine natural products.

    PubMed

    El-Hossary, Ebaa M; Cheng, Cheng; Hamed, Mostafa M; El-Sayed Hamed, Ashraf Nageeb; Ohlsen, Knut; Hentschel, Ute; Abdelmohsen, Usama Ramadan

    2017-01-27

    Fungal diseases represent an increasing threat to human health worldwide which in some cases might be associated with substantial morbidity and mortality. However, only few antifungal drugs are currently available for the treatment of life-threatening fungal infections. Furthermore, plant diseases caused by fungal pathogens represent a worldwide economic problem for the agriculture industry. The marine environment continues to provide structurally diverse and biologically active secondary metabolites, several of which have inspired the development of new classes of therapeutic agents. Among these secondary metabolites, several compounds with noteworthy antifungal activities have been isolated from marine microorganisms, invertebrates, and algae. During the last fifteen years, around 65% of marine natural products possessing antifungal activities have been isolated from sponges and bacteria. This review gives an overview of natural products from diverse marine organisms that have shown in vitro and/or in vivo potential as antifungal agents, with their mechanism of action whenever applicable. The natural products literature is covered from January 2000 until June 2015, and we are reporting the chemical structures together with their biological activities, as well as the isolation source. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  10. Uncertainty quantification metrics for whole product life cycle cost estimates in aerospace innovation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwabe, O.; Shehab, E.; Erkoyuncu, J.

    2015-08-01

    The lack of defensible methods for quantifying cost estimate uncertainty over the whole product life cycle of aerospace innovations such as propulsion systems or airframes poses a significant challenge to the creation of accurate and defensible cost estimates. Based on the axiomatic definition of uncertainty as the actual prediction error of the cost estimate, this paper provides a comprehensive overview of metrics used for the uncertainty quantification of cost estimates based on a literature review, an evaluation of publicly funded projects such as part of the CORDIS or Horizon 2020 programs, and an analysis of established approaches used by organizations such NASA, the U.S. Department of Defence, the ESA, and various commercial companies. The metrics are categorized based on their foundational character (foundations), their use in practice (state-of-practice), their availability for practice (state-of-art) and those suggested for future exploration (state-of-future). Insights gained were that a variety of uncertainty quantification metrics exist whose suitability depends on the volatility of available relevant information, as defined by technical and cost readiness level, and the number of whole product life cycle phases the estimate is intended to be valid for. Information volatility and number of whole product life cycle phases can hereby be considered as defining multi-dimensional probability fields admitting various uncertainty quantification metric families with identifiable thresholds for transitioning between them. The key research gaps identified were the lacking guidance grounded in theory for the selection of uncertainty quantification metrics and lacking practical alternatives to metrics based on the Central Limit Theorem. An innovative uncertainty quantification framework consisting of; a set-theory based typology, a data library, a classification system, and a corresponding input-output model are put forward to address this research gap as the basis

  11. [Labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012].

    PubMed

    Cubí-Mollá, Patricia; Peña-Longobardo, Luz María; Casal, Bruno; Rivera, Berta; Oliva-Moreno, Juan

    2015-09-01

    To estimate the years of potential life lost, years of potential productive life lost and the labor productivity losses attributable to premature deaths due to traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain. Several statistical sources were combined (Spanish Registry of Deaths, Labor Force Survey and Wage Structure Survey) to develop a simulation model based on the human capital approach. This model allowed us to estimate the loss of labor productivity caused by premature deaths following traffic injuries from 2002 to 2012. In addition, mortality tables with life expectancy estimates were used to compute years of potential life lost and years of potential productive life lost. The estimated loss of labour productivity caused by fatal traffic injuries between 2002 and 2012 in Spain amounted to 9,521 million euros (baseline year 2012). The aggregate number of years of potential life lost in the period amounted to 1,433,103, whereas the years of potential productive life lost amounted to 875,729. Throughout the period analyzed, labor productivity losses and years of life lost diminished substantially. Labor productivity losses due to fatal traffic injuries decreased throughout the period analyzed. Nevertheless, the cumulative loss was alarmingly high. Estimation of the economic impact of health problems can complement conventional indicators of distinct dimensions and be used to support public policy making. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  12. Quantitative estimation of global patterns of surface ocean biological productivity and its seasonal variation on timescales from centuries to millennia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loubere, Paul; Fariduddin, Mohammad

    1999-03-01

    We present a quantitative method, based on the relative abundances of benthic foraminifera in deep-sea sediments, for estimating surface ocean biological productivity over the timescale of centuries to millennia. We calibrate the method using a global data set composed of 207 samples from the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans from a water depth range between 2300 and 3600 m. The sample set was developed so that other, potentially significant, environmental variables would be uncorrelated to overlying surface ocean productivity. A regression of assemblages against productivity yielded an r2 = 0.89 demonstrating a strong productivity signal in the faunal data. In addition, we examined assemblage response to annual variability in biological productivity (seasonality). Our data set included a range of seasonalities which we quantified into a seasonality index using the pigment color bands from the coastal zone color scanner (CZCS). The response of benthic foraminiferal assemblage composition to our seasonality index was tested with regression analysis. We obtained a statistically highly significant r2 = 0.75. Further, discriminant function analysis revealed a clear separation among sample groups based on surface ocean productivity and our seasonality index. Finally, we tested the response of benthic foraminiferal assemblages to three different modes of seasonality. We observed a distinct separation of our samples into groups representing low seasonal variability, strong seasonality with a single main productivity event in the year, and strong seasonality with multiple productivity events in the year. Reconstructing surface ocean biological productivity with benthic foraminifera will aid in modeling marine biogeochemical cycles. Also, estimating mode and range of annual seasonality will provide insight to changing oceanic processes, allowing the examination of the mechanisms causing changes in the marine biotic system over time. This article contains supplementary

  13. ESTIMATION OF GROUNDWATER POLLUTION POTENTIAL BY PESTICIDES IN MID-ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN WATERSHEDS

    EPA Science Inventory

    A simple GIS-based transport model to estimate the potential for groundwater pollution by pesticides has been developed within the ArcView GIS environment. The pesticide leaching analytical model, which is based on one-dimensional advective-dispersive-reactive (ADR) transport, ha...

  14. Monte Carlo simulations of product distributions and contained metal estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gettings, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Estimation of product distributions of two factors was simulated by conventional Monte Carlo techniques using factor distributions that were independent (uncorrelated). Several simulations using uniform distributions of factors show that the product distribution has a central peak approximately centered at the product of the medians of the factor distributions. Factor distributions that are peaked, such as Gaussian (normal) produce an even more peaked product distribution. Piecewise analytic solutions can be obtained for independent factor distributions and yield insight into the properties of the product distribution. As an example, porphyry copper grades and tonnages are now available in at least one public database and their distributions were analyzed. Although both grade and tonnage can be approximated with lognormal distributions, they are not exactly fit by them. The grade shows some nonlinear correlation with tonnage for the published database. Sampling by deposit from available databases of grade, tonnage, and geological details of each deposit specifies both grade and tonnage for that deposit. Any correlation between grade and tonnage is then preserved and the observed distribution of grades and tonnages can be used with no assumption of distribution form.

  15. Abuse Liability Assessment of Tobacco Products Including Potential Reduced Exposure Products (PREPs)

    PubMed Central

    Carter, Lawrence P.; Stitzer, Maxine L.; Henningfield, Jack E.; O'Connor, Rich J.; Cummings, K. Michael; Hatsukami, Dorothy K.

    2009-01-01

    The harm produced by tobacco products is a result of frequent use of a highly toxic product. Reducing the adverse public health impact of tobacco products might be most effectively achieved by reducing the likelihood of their use and the toxicity of the products. Products that retain some characteristics of cigarettes, but have been altered with the intention of reducing toxicity have been referred to as modified risk tobacco products or potential reduced exposure products (MRTP/PREPS). Evaluation of their content, emission, and toxicity is discussed in other articles in this special issue. Here, we discuss the methodology that has been used to examine the likelihood of abuse or addiction. Abuse liability assessment (ALA) methodology has been used by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) and other drug regulatory agencies world-wide for decades to assess the risks posed by a wide variety of pharmacologically active substances. ALA is routinely required among other evaluations of safety during the premarket assessment of new drugs, and is continually adapted to meet the challenges posed by new drug classes and drug formulations. In the 2009 law giving FDA regulation over tobacco products, FDA is now required to evaluate new tobacco products including MRTP/PREPs to determine their risk for abuse and toxicity at the population level. This paper describes the traditional tools and methods of ALA that can be used to evaluate new tobacco and nicotine products including MRTP/PREPs. Such ALA data could contribute to the scientific foundation on which future public policy decisions are based. PMID:19959676

  16. Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach.

    PubMed

    Horbowy, Jan; Tomczak, Maciej T

    2017-01-01

    Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low.

  17. Market potential for guinea fowl (Numidia meleagris) products.

    PubMed

    Madzimure, James; Saina, Happyson; Ngorora, Grace P K

    2011-12-01

    The survey evaluated the market potential for guinea fowl (GF; Numidia meleagris) products in the city of Harare, Zimbabwe. Questionnaires were administered to traders/producers (n = 17), retailers (n = 12), cafeteria industry (n = 33) and consumers (n = 1,680) to establish their perceptions on guinea fowl products. The average household size was 6 ± 2. Each trader sold 10 ± 6.30 keets (mean ± standard error), 33 ± 15.05 growers, 20 ± 12.69 breeders and 20 ± 10.1 crates of 30 eggs per month. Each household consumed 2.5 ± 1.39 kg of GF meat and 3 ± 0.65 dozens of GF eggs per month. Retailers purchased 52 ± 44.42 crates of GF eggs and 41 ± 30.50/kg of GF meat whilst cafeteria purchased 33.6 ± 14 crates of GF eggs and 65.5 ± 33.52 kg of GF meat per month. Growers for breeding were the major product for sale by traders (94.1%) at a price of US$7.50 ± 1.74/bird. Different industries were offering different prices for guinea fowl products because of their scarcity on the market. The mean purchase price per crate of 30 guinea fowl eggs sold to the retail and cafeteria were US$3.00 ± 0.58 and US$4.50 ± 0.50, respectively. The mean purchase prices for GF meat was lower (P < 0.05) for retailers (US$2.5 ± 0.81/kg) than cafeteria (US$3.67 ± 0.83/kg). The challenges faced by producers in the marketing of guinea fowl products included poor supply due to the absence of good road networks to connect source areas and the market, perishability of dressed chickens due to power cuts and poor publicity. Overall, the study showed that there is greater market potential for guinea fowl products and farmers can channel their products through traders, cafeteria and retail industries.

  18. The potential of biogas production from municipal solid waste in a tropical climate.

    PubMed

    Getahun, Tadesse; Gebrehiwot, Mulat; Ambelu, Argaw; Van Gerven, Tom; Van der Bruggen, Bart

    2014-07-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate the potential of organic municipal solid waste generated in an urban setting in a tropical climate to produce biogas. Five different categories of wastes were considered: fruit waste, food waste, yard waste, paper waste, and mixed waste. These fractions were assessed for their efficiency for biogas production in a laboratory-scale batch digester for a total period of 8 weeks at a temperature of 15-30 °C. During this period, fruit waste, food waste, yard waste, paper waste, and mixed waste were observed to produce 0.15, 0.17, 0.10, 0.08, and 0.15 m(3) of biogas per kilogram of volatile solids, respectively. The biogas produced and caloric value of each feedstock was in the range of 1.25 × 10(-3) m(3) (17 kWh)/cap/day (paper waste) to 15 × 10(-3) m(3) (170 kWh)/cap/day (mixed waste). Paper waste produced the least (<1×10(-3)(<17.8 kWh)/cap/day), and mixed waste produced the highest methane yield (10 × 10(-3) m(3) (178 kWh)/cap/day). Thus, mixed waste was found to be more efficient than other feedstocks for biogas and methane production; this was mainly related to the better C/N ratio in mixed waste. Taking the total waste production in Jimma into account, the total mixed organic solid waste could produce 865 × 10(3) m(3) (5.4 m(3)/capita) of biogas or 537 × 10(3) m(3) (3.4 m(3)/capita) of methane per year. The total caloric value of methane production potential from mixed organic municipal solid waste was many times higher than the total energy requirement of the area.

  19. Steady-state evoked potentials possibilities for mental-state estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Junker, Andrew M.; Schnurer, John H.; Ingle, David F.; Downey, Craig W.

    1988-01-01

    The use of the human steady-state evoked potential (SSEP) as a possible measure of mental-state estimation is explored. A method for evoking a visual response to a sum-of-ten sine waves is presented. This approach provides simultaneous multiple frequency measurements of the human EEG to the evoking stimulus in terms of describing functions (gain and phase) and remnant spectra. Ways in which these quantities vary with the addition of performance tasks (manual tracking, grammatical reasoning, and decision making) are presented. Models of the describing function measures can be formulated using systems engineering technology. Relationships between model parameters and performance scores during manual tracking are discussed. Problems of unresponsiveness and lack of repeatability of subject responses are addressed in terms of a need for loop closure of the SSEP. A technique to achieve loop closure using a lock-in amplifier approach is presented. Results of a study designed to test the effectiveness of using feedback to consciously connect humans to their evoked response are presented. Findings indicate that conscious control of EEG is possible. Implications of these results in terms of secondary tasks for mental-state estimation and brain actuated control are addressed.

  20. Error Estimates for Approximate Solutions of the Riccati Equation with Real or Complex Potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finster, Felix; Smoller, Joel

    2010-09-01

    A method is presented for obtaining rigorous error estimates for approximate solutions of the Riccati equation, with real or complex potentials. Our main tool is to derive invariant region estimates for complex solutions of the Riccati equation. We explain the general strategy for applying these estimates and illustrate the method in typical examples, where the approximate solutions are obtained by gluing together WKB and Airy solutions of corresponding one-dimensional Schrödinger equations. Our method is motivated by, and has applications to, the analysis of linear wave equations in the geometry of a rotating black hole.

  1. The impact of land use on estimates of pesticide leaching potential: Assessments and uncertainties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loague, Keith

    1991-11-01

    This paper illustrates the magnitude of uncertainty which can exist for pesticide leaching assessments, due to data uncertainties, both between soil orders and within a single soil order. The current work differs from previous efforts because the impact of uncertainty in recharge estimates is considered. The examples are for diuron leaching in the Pearl Harbor Basin. The results clearly indicate that land use has a significant impact on both estimates of pesticide leaching potential and the uncertainties associated with those estimates. It appears that the regulation of agricultural chemicals in the future should include consideration for changing land use.

  2. The investigation of probiotic potential of lactic acid bacteria isolated from traditional Mongolian dairy products.

    PubMed

    Takeda, Shiro; Yamasaki, Keiko; Takeshita, Masahiko; Kikuchi, Yukiharu; Tsend-Ayush, Chuluunbat; Dashnyam, Bumbein; Ahhmed, Abdulatef M; Kawahara, Satoshi; Muguruma, Michio

    2011-08-01

    The aims of this study were to investigate the diversity of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) isolated from traditional Mongolian dairy products, and to estimate the probiotic potential of the isolated strains. We collected 66 samples of the traditional Mongolian dairy products tarag (n = 45), airag (n = 7), aaruul (n = 8), byasulag (n = 1) and eezgii (n = 5), from which 543 LAB strains were isolated and identified based on 16S ribosomal DNA sequence. The predominant species of those products were Lactobacillus (L.) delbrueckii ssp. bulgaricus, L. helveticus, L. fermentum, L. delbrueckii ssp. lactis and Lactococcus lactis ssp. lactis. However, we could not detect any LAB strains from eezgii. All LAB isolates were screened for tolerance to low pH and to bile acid, gas production from glucose, and adherence to Caco-2 cells. In vitro, we found 10 strains possess probiotic properties, and almost identified them as L. plantarum or L. paracasei subspecies, based on 16S ribosomal DNA and carbohydrate fermentation pattern. These strains were differentiated from each other individually by randomly amplified polymorphic DNA analysis. Additionally, it was notable that 6/10 strains were isolated from camel milk tarag from the Dornogovi province. 2011 The Authors. Animal Science Journal © 2011 Japanese Society of Animal Science.

  3. Carbon in U.S. forests and wood products, 1987-1997: state-by-state estimates

    Treesearch

    R.A. Birdsey; G.M. Lewis

    2003-01-01

    Estimated changes in carbon stocks are reported for the forests and wood products of the 50 U.S. States. Carbon stocks on forest land and in harvested wood products increased between 1987 and 1997 at an annual rate of 190 million metric tons. Most of this increase was in biomass, followed closely by wood products and landfills. Changes in land use since 1987 caused a...

  4. Modeled Changes in Potential Grassland Productivity and in Grass-Fed Ruminant Livestock Density in Europe over 1961–2010

    PubMed Central

    Chang, Jinfeng; Viovy, Nicolas; Vuichard, Nicolas; Ciais, Philippe; Campioli, Matteo; Klumpp, Katja; Martin, Raphaël; Leip, Adrian; Soussana, Jean-François

    2015-01-01

    About 25% of European livestock intake is based on permanent and sown grasslands. To fulfill rising demand for animal products, an intensification of livestock production may lead to an increased consumption of crop and compound feeds. In order to preserve an economically and environmentally sustainable agriculture, a more forage based livestock alimentation may be an advantage. However, besides management, grassland productivity is highly vulnerable to climate (i.e., temperature, precipitation, CO2 concentration), and spatial information about European grassland productivity in response to climate change is scarce. The process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE-GM, containing an explicit representation of grassland management (i.e., herbage mowing and grazing), is used here to estimate changes in potential productivity and potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density across European grasslands over the period 1961–2010. Here “potential grass-fed ruminant livestock density” denotes the maximum density of livestock that can be supported by grassland productivity in each 25 km × 25 km grid cell. In reality, livestock density could be higher than potential (e.g., if additional feed is supplied to animals) or lower (e.g., in response to economic factors, pedo-climatic and biotic conditions ignored by the model, or policy decisions that can for instance reduce livestock numbers). When compared to agricultural statistics (Eurostat and FAOstat), ORCHIDEE-GM gave a good reproduction of the regional gradients of annual grassland productivity and ruminant livestock density. The model however tends to systematically overestimate the absolute values of productivity in most regions, suggesting that most grid cells remain below their potential grassland productivity due to possible nutrient and biotic limitations on plant growth. When ORCHIDEE-GM was run for the period 1961–2010 with variable climate and rising CO2, an increase of potential annual production (over 3

  5. Ocean Primary Production Estimates from Terra MODIS and Their Dependency on Satellite Chlorophyll Alpha Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Essias, Wayne E.; Abbott, Mark; Carder, Kendall; Campbell, Janet; Clark, Dennis; Evans, Robert; Brown, Otis; Kearns, Ed; Kilpatrick, Kay; Balch, W.

    2003-01-01

    Simplistic models relating global satellite ocean color, temperature, and light to ocean net primary production (ONPP) are sensitive to the accuracy and limitations of the satellite estimate of chlorophyll and other input fields, as well as the primary productivity model. The standard MODIS ONPP product uses the new semi-analytic chlorophyll algorithm as its input for two ONPP indexes. The three primary MODIS chlorophyll Q estimates from MODIS, as well as the SeaWiFS 4 chlorophyll product, were used to assess global and regional performance in estimating ONPP for the full mission, but concentrating on 2001. The two standard ONPP algorithms were examined with 8-day and 39 kilometer resolution to quantify chlorophyll algorithm dependency of ONPP. Ancillary data (MLD from FNMOC, MODIS SSTD1, and PAR from the GSFC DAO) were identical. The standard MODIS ONPP estimates for annual production in 2001 was 59 and 58 GT C for the two ONPP algorithms. Differences in ONPP using alternate chlorophylls were on the order of 10% for global annual ONPP, but ranged to 100% regionally. On all scales the differences in ONPP were smaller between MODIS and SeaWiFS than between ONPP models, or among chlorophyll algorithms within MODIS. Largest regional ONPP differences were found in the Southern Ocean (SO). In the SO, application of the semi-analytic chlorophyll resulted in not only a magnitude difference in ONPP (2x), but also a temporal shift in the time of maximum production compared to empirical algorithms when summed over standard oceanic areas. The resulting increase in global ONPP (6-7 GT) is supported by better performance of the semi-analytic chlorophyll in the SO and other high chlorophyll regions. The differences are significant in terms of understanding regional differences and dynamics of ocean carbon transformations.

  6. Climate change trade measures : estimating industry effects

    DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

    2009-06-01

    Estimating the potential effects of domestic emissions pricing for industries in the United States is complex. If the United States were to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, production costs could rise for certain industries and could cause output, ...

  7. Measurement of the incorporation rates of four amino acids into proteins for estimating bacterial production.

    PubMed

    Servais, P

    1995-03-01

    In aquatic ecosystems, [(3)H]thymidine incorporation into bacterial DNA and [(3)H]leucine incorporation into proteins are usually used to estimate bacterial production. The incorporation rates of four amino acids (leucine, tyrosine, lysine, alanine) into proteins of bacteria were measured in parallel on natural freshwater samples from the basin of the river Meuse (Belgium). Comparison of the incorporation into proteins and into the total macromolecular fraction showed that these different amino acids were incorporated at more than 90% into proteins. From incorporation measurements at four subsaturated concentrations (range, 2-77 nm), the maximum incorporation rates were determined. Strong correlations (r > 0.91 for all the calculated correlations) were found between the maximum incorporation rates of the different tested amino acids over a range of two orders of magnitude of bacterial activity. Bacterial production estimates were calculated using theoretical and experimental conversion factors. The productions calculated from the incorporation rates of the four amino acids were in good concordance, especially when the experimental conversion factors were used (slope range, 0.91-1.11, and r > 0.91). This study suggests that the incorporation of various amino acids into proteins can be used to estimate bacterial production.

  8. Comparison of polar cap potential drops estimated from solar wind and ground magnetometer data - CDAW 6

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reiff, P. H.; Spiro, R. W.; Wolf, R. A.; Kamide, Y.; King, J. H.

    1985-01-01

    It is pointed out that the maximum electrostatic potential difference across the polar cap, Phi, is a fundamental measure of the coupling between the solar wind and the earth's magnetosphere/ionosphere sytem. During the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshop (CDAW) 6 intervals, no suitably instrumented spacecraft was in an appropriate orbit to determine the polar-cap potential drop directly. However, two recently developed independent techniques make it possible to estimate the polar-cap potential drop for times when direct spacecraft data are not available. The present investigation is concerned with a comparison of cross-polar-cap potential drop estimates calculated for the two CDAW 6 intervals on the basis of these two techniques. In the case of one interval, the agreement between the potential drops and Joule heating rates is relatively good. In the second interval, however, the agreement is not very good. Explanations for this discrepancy are discussed.

  9. A methodology for conducting national-scale alluvial diamond resource potential and production capacity assessments, with a focus on artisanal mining

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chirico, Peter G.; Malpeli, Katherine C.

    2012-01-01

    In May of 2000, a meeting was convened in Kimberley, South Africa, by representatives of the diamond industry and leaders of African governments to develop a certification process intended to assure that export shipments of rough diamonds were free of conflict concerns. Outcomes of the meeting were formally supported later in December of 2000 by the United Nations in a resolution adopted by the General Assembly. By 2002, the Kimberley Process Certification Scheme was ratified and signed by diamond-producing and diamond-importing countries. As of August 2012, the Kimberley Process (KP) had 51 participants representing 77 countries. It is often difficult to obtain independent verification of the diamond production statistics that are provided to the KP. However, some degree of independent verification can be obtained through an understanding of a country’s naturally occurring endowment of diamonds and the intensity of mining activities. Studies that integrate these two components can produce a range of estimated values for a country’s diamond production, and these estimates can then be compared to the production statistics released by that country. This methodology is used to calculate (1) the diamond resource potential of a country, which refers to the total number of carats estimated to be remaining in the country, and (2) the diamond production capacity of a country, which is the current volume of diamonds that may realistically be produced per year utilizing current human and physical resources. The following sections outline the methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to perform diamond assessments in Mali, the Central African Republic, Ghana, and Guinea.

  10. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    DOE PAGES

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer; ...

    2017-07-06

    Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

  11. Using GIS-based methods and lidar data to estimate rooftop solar technical potential in US cities

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Margolis, Robert; Gagnon, Pieter; Melius, Jennifer

    Here, we estimate the technical potential of rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) for select US cities by combining light detection and ranging (lidar) data, a validated analytical method for determining rooftop PV suitability employing geographic information systems, and modeling of PV electricity generation. We find that rooftop PV's ability to meet estimated city electricity consumption varies widely - from meeting 16% of annual consumption (in Washington, DC) to meeting 88% (in Mission Viejo, CA). Important drivers include average rooftop suitability, household footprint/per-capita roof space, the quality of the solar resource, and the city's estimated electricity consumption. In addition to city-wide results,more » we also estimate the ability of aggregations of households to offset their electricity consumption with PV. In a companion article, we will use statistical modeling to extend our results and estimate national rooftop PV technical potential. In addition, our publically available data and methods may help policy makers, utilities, researchers, and others perform customized analyses to meet their specific needs.« less

  12. Measurements of the potential ozone production rate in a forest

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crilley, L.; Sklaveniti, S.; Kramer, L.; Bloss, W.; Flynn, J. H., III; Alvarez, S. L.; Erickson, M.; Dusanter, S.; Locoge, N.; Stevens, P. S.; Millet, D. B.; Alwe, H. D.

    2017-12-01

    Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC) are a significant source of organic compounds globally and alongside NOx play a key role in the formation of ozone in the troposphere. Understanding how changes in NOx concentrations feed through to altered ozone production in BVOC dominated environments will aid our understanding of future atmospheric composition, notably as developing nations transition from NOx dominated to NOx limited chemistry as a result of mitigation strategies. Here we empirically investigate this ambient ozone formation potential. We report deployment of a custom built instrument to measure in near real time the potential for in situ chemical ozone production, using an artificial light source. Our results are thus indicative of the ozone formation potential for a sampled ambient air mixture, including full VOC complexity, i.e. independent of characterization of individual organic compounds. Ground level measurements were performed as part of the PROPHET-AMOS 2016 field campaign, at a site located within a Northern Michigan forest that has typically low NOx abundance, but high isoprene and terpenoid loadings. As the ambient NOx concentrations were low during the campaign, experiments were performed in which NO was artificially added to the sampled ambient air mixture, to quantify changes in the potential ozone production rate as a function of NOx, and hence the ozone forming characteristics of the ambient air. Preliminarily results from these experiments are presented, and indicate that while ozone production increases with added NO, significant variation was observed for a given NO addition, reflecting differences in the ambient VOC chemical reactivity and ozone formation tendency.

  13. Productivity and population density estimates of the dengue vector mosquito Aedes aegypti (Stegomyia aegypti) in Australia.

    PubMed

    Williams, C R; Johnson, P H; Ball, T S; Ritchie, S A

    2013-09-01

    New mosquito control strategies centred on the modifying of populations require knowledge of existing population densities at release sites and an understanding of breeding site ecology. Using a quantitative pupal survey method, we investigated production of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti (L.) (Stegomyia aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) in Cairns, Queensland, Australia, and found that garden accoutrements represented the most common container type. Deliberately placed 'sentinel' containers were set at seven houses and sampled for pupae over 10 weeks during the wet season. Pupal production was approximately constant; tyres and buckets represented the most productive container types. Sentinel tyres produced the largest female mosquitoes, but were relatively rare in the field survey. We then used field-collected data to make estimates of per premises population density using three different approaches. Estimates of female Ae. aegypti abundance per premises made using the container-inhabiting mosquito simulation (CIMSiM) model [95% confidence interval (CI) 18.5-29.1 females] concorded reasonably well with estimates obtained using a standing crop calculation based on pupal collections (95% CI 8.8-22.5) and using BG-Sentinel traps and a sampling rate correction factor (95% CI 6.2-35.2). By first describing local Ae. aegypti productivity, we were able to compare three separate population density estimates which provided similar results. We anticipate that this will provide researchers and health officials with several tools with which to make estimates of population densities. © 2012 The Royal Entomological Society.

  14. Estimation of weekly 99Mo production by AHR 200 kW

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siregar, I. H.; Suharyana; Khakim, A.; Siregar, D.; Frida, A. R.

    2016-11-01

    The estimation of weekly 99Mo production by AHR 200 kW fueled with Low Enriched Uranium Uranyl Nitrate solution has been simulated by using MCNPX computer code. We have employed the AHR design of Babcock & Wilcox Medical Isotope Production System with 9Be Reflector and Stainless steel vessel. We found that when the concentration of uranium in the fresh fuel was 108 gr U/L of UO2(NO3)2 fuel solution, the multiplication factor was 1.0517. The 99Mo concentration reached saturated at tenth day operation. The AHR can produce approximately 1.96×103 6-day-Ci weekly.

  15. Potential Development Essential Oil Production of Central Java, Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alighiri, D.; Eden, W. T.; Supardi, K. I.; Masturi; Purwinarko, A.

    2017-04-01

    Indonesia is the source of raw essential oil in the world. Essential oils are used in various types of industries such as food and beverage, flavour, fragrance, perfumery, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics. However, the development of Indonesian essential oil industry has not been encouraging for the production of essential oils, further it is unable to meet global demand. Besides that, the quality of volatile oil resulted cannot meet the international market standards. Based on the facts, the potential of Indonesian essential oils needs to be developed to provide added value, through increased production, improved quality and product diversification. One part of Indonesia having abundant of raw essential oil source is Central Java. Central Java has the quite large potential production of essential oils. Some essential oils produced from refining industry owned by the government, private and community sectors include cananga oils (Boyolali district), clove oils (Semarang district), patchouli oils (Brebes district, Pemalang district, and Klaten district). The main problem in the development of plants industries that producing essential oil in Central Java is low crops production, farming properties, quality of essential oils are diverse, providing poor-quality products and volatile oil price fluctuations. Marketing constraints of Central Java essential oils are quite complex supply chain. In general, marketing constraints of essential oils due to three factors, namely the low quality due to type of essential oil business that generally shaped small businesses with different capital and technology, domestic marketing is still a buyer-market (price determined by the buyer) because of weak bargaining position processors businessman, and prices fluctuate (domestic and foreign) due to uncontrolled domestic production and inter-country competition among manufacturers.

  16. Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide

    PubMed Central

    Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W. R.; Bange, Hermann W.

    2012-01-01

    We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N2O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N2O and N2O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N2O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N2O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N2O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N2O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N2O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr−1. This is in agreement with estimates of the global N2O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N2O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N2O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed. PMID:22451110

  17. Global oceanic production of nitrous oxide.

    PubMed

    Freing, Alina; Wallace, Douglas W R; Bange, Hermann W

    2012-05-05

    We use transient time distributions calculated from tracer data together with in situ measurements of nitrous oxide (N(2)O) to estimate the concentration of biologically produced N(2)O and N(2)O production rates in the ocean on a global scale. Our approach to estimate the N(2)O production rates integrates the effects of potentially varying production and decomposition mechanisms along the transport path of a water mass. We estimate that the oceanic N(2)O production is dominated by nitrification with a contribution of only approximately 7 per cent by denitrification. This indicates that previously used approaches have overestimated the contribution by denitrification. Shelf areas may account for only a negligible fraction of the global production; however, estuarine sources and coastal upwelling of N(2)O are not taken into account in our study. The largest amount of subsurface N(2)O is produced in the upper 500 m of the water column. The estimated global annual subsurface N(2)O production ranges from 3.1 ± 0.9 to 3.4 ± 0.9 Tg N yr(-1). This is in agreement with estimates of the global N(2)O emissions to the atmosphere and indicates that a N(2)O source in the mixed layer is unlikely. The potential future development of the oceanic N(2)O source in view of the ongoing changes of the ocean environment (deoxygenation, warming, eutrophication and acidification) is discussed.

  18. Conflict minerals in the compute sector: estimating extent of tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold use in ICT products.

    PubMed

    Fitzpatrick, Colin; Olivetti, Elsa; Miller, Reed; Roth, Richard; Kirchain, Randolph

    2015-01-20

    Recent legislation has focused attention on the supply chains of tin, tungsten, tantalum, and gold (3TG), specifically those originating from the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The unique properties of these so-called “conflict minerals” lead to their use in many products, ranging from medical devices to industrial cutting tools. This paper calculates per product use of 3TG in several information, communication, and technology (ICT) products such as desktops, servers, laptops, smart phones, and tablets. By scaling up individual product estimates to global shipment figures, this work estimates the influence of the ICT sector on 3TG mining in covered countries. The model estimates the upper bound of tin, tungsten, tantalum, and gold use within ICT products to be 2%, 0.1%, 15%, and 3% of the 2013 market share, respectively. This result is projected into the future (2018) based on the anticipated increase in ICT device production.

  19. Theoretical and experimental investigations of the potential of osmotic energy for power production.

    PubMed

    Sharif, Adel O; Merdaw, Ali A; Aryafar, Maryam; Nicoll, Peter

    2014-08-08

    This paper presents a study on the potential of osmotic energy for power production. The study includes both pilot plant testing and theoretical modelling as well as cost estimation. A projected cost of £30/MWh of clean electricity could be achieved by using a Hydro-Osmotic Power (HOP) plant if a suitable membrane is used and the osmotic potential difference between the two solutions is greater than 25 bar; a condition that can be readily found in many sites around the world. Results have shown that the membrane system accounts for 50%-80% of the HOP plant cost depending on the salinity difference level. Thus, further development in membrane technology and identifying suitable membranes would have a significant impact on the feasibility of the process and the route to market. As the membrane permeability determines the HOP process feasibility, this paper also describes the effect of the interaction between the fluid and the membrane on the system permeability. It has been shown that both the fluid physical properties as well as the membrane micro-structural parameters need to be considered if further development of the HOP process is to be achieved.

  20. Gross domestic product estimation based on electricity utilization by artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stevanović, Mirjana; Vujičić, Slađana; Gajić, Aleksandar M.

    2018-01-01

    The main goal of the paper was to estimate gross domestic product (GDP) based on electricity estimation by artificial neural network (ANN). The electricity utilization was analyzed based on different sources like renewable, coal and nuclear sources. The ANN network was trained with two training algorithms namely extreme learning method and back-propagation algorithm in order to produce the best prediction results of the GDP. According to the results it can be concluded that the ANN model with extreme learning method could produce the acceptable prediction of the GDP based on the electricity utilization.

  1. The potential impacts of biomass feedstock production on water resource availability.

    PubMed

    Stone, K C; Hunt, P G; Cantrell, K B; Ro, K S

    2010-03-01

    Biofuels are a major topic of global interest and technology development. Whereas bioenergy crop production is highly dependent on water, bioenergy development requires effective allocation and management of water. The objectives of this investigation were to assess the bioenergy production relative to the impacts on water resource related factors: (1) climate and weather impact on water supplies for biomass production; (2) water use for major bioenergy crop production; and (3) potential alternatives to improve water supplies for bioenergy. Shifts to alternative bioenergy crops with greater water demand may produce unintended consequences for both water resources and energy feedstocks. Sugarcane and corn require 458 and 2036 m(3) water/m(3) ethanol produced, respectively. The water requirements for corn grain production to meet the US-DOE Billion-Ton Vision may increase approximately 6-fold from 8.6 to 50.1 km(3). Furthermore, climate change is impacting water resources throughout the world. In the western US, runoff from snowmelt is occurring earlier altering the timing of water availability. Weather extremes, both drought and flooding, have occurred more frequently over the last 30 years than the previous 100 years. All of these weather events impact bioenergy crop production. These events may be partially mitigated by alternative water management systems that offer potential for more effective water use and conservation. A few potential alternatives include controlled drainage and new next-generation livestock waste treatment systems. Controlled drainage can increase water available to plants and simultaneously improve water quality. New livestock waste treatments systems offer the potential to utilize treated wastewater to produce bioenergy crops. New technologies for cellulosic biomass conversion via thermochemical conversion offer the potential for using more diverse feedstocks with dramatically reduced water requirements. The development of bioenergy

  2. Polyhydroxyalkanoate production potential of heterotrophic bacteria in activated sludge.

    PubMed

    Inoue, Daisuke; Suzuki, Yuta; Uchida, Takahiro; Morohoshi, Jota; Sei, Kazunari

    2016-01-01

    This study was conducted to evaluate the polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) production potential of cultivable heterotrophic bacteria in activated sludge by genotypic and phenotypic characterizations. A total of 114 bacterial strains were isolated from four activated sludge samples taken from a lab-scale sequencing batch reactor and three wastewater treatment processes of two municipal wastewater treatment plants. PCR detection of the phaC genes encoding class I and II PHA synthase revealed that 15% of the total isolates possessed phaC genes, all of which had the closest similarities to known phaC genes of α- and β-Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria. PHA production experiments under aerobic and nitrogen-limited conditions showed that 68% of the total isolates were capable of producing PHA from at least one of the six substrates used (acetate, propionate, lactate, butyrate, glucose and glycerol). Genotypic and phenotypic characterizations revealed that 75% of the activated sludge bacteria had PHA production potential. Our results also indicated that short-chain fatty acids would be the preferable substrates for PHA production by activated sludge bacteria, and that there might be a variety of unidentified phaC genes in activated sludge. Copyright © 2015 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach

    PubMed Central

    Horbowy, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low. PMID:29131850

  4. Global wheat production potentials and management flexibility under the representative concentration pathways

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balkovič, Juraj; van der Velde, Marijn; Skalský, Rastislav; Xiong, Wei; Folberth, Christian; Khabarov, Nikolay; Smirnov, Alexey; Mueller, Nathaniel D.; Obersteiner, Michael

    2014-11-01

    Wheat is the third largest crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. A large geographic variation in wheat yields across similar climates points to sizeable yield gaps in many nations, and indicates a regionally variable flexibility to increase wheat production. Wheat is particularly sensitive to a changing climate thus limiting management opportunities to enable (sustainable) intensification with potentially significant implications for future wheat production. We present a comprehensive global evaluation of future wheat yields and production under distinct Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) agro-ecosystem model. We project, in a geographically explicit manner, future wheat production pathways for rainfed and irrigated wheat systems. We explore agricultural management flexibility by quantifying the development of wheat yield potentials under current, rainfed, exploitable (given current irrigation infrastructure), and irrigated intensification levels. Globally, because of climate change, wheat production under conventional management (around the year 2000) would decrease across all RCPs by 37 to 52 and 54 to 103 Mt in the 2050s and 2090s, respectively. However, the exploitable and potential production gap will stay above 350 and 580 Mt, respectively, for all RCPs and time horizons, indicating that negative impacts of climate change can globally be offset by adequate intensification using currently existing irrigation infrastructure and nutrient additions. Future world wheat production on cropland already under cultivation can be increased by ~ 35% through intensified fertilization and ~ 50% through increased fertilization and extended irrigation, if sufficient water would be available. Significant potential can still be exploited, especially in rainfed wheat systems in Russia

  5. Potential and Prospects of Continuous Polyhydroxyalkanoate (PHA) Production

    PubMed Central

    Koller, Martin; Braunegg, Gerhart

    2015-01-01

    Together with other so-called “bio-plastics”, Polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHAs) are expected to soon replace established polymers on the plastic market. As a prerequisite, optimized process design is needed to make PHAs attractive in terms of costs and quality. Nowadays, large-scale PHA production relies on discontinuous fed-batch cultivation in huge bioreactors. Such processes presuppose numerous shortcomings such as nonproductive time for reactor revamping, irregular product quality, limited possibility for supply of certain carbon substrates, and, most of all, insufficient productivity. Therefore, single- and multistage continuous PHA biosynthesis is increasingly investigated for production of different types of microbial PHAs; this goes for rather crystalline, thermoplastic PHA homopolyesters as well as for highly flexible PHA copolyesters, and even blocky-structured PHAs consisting of alternating soft and hard segments. Apart from enhanced productivity and constant product quality, chemostat processes can be used to elucidate kinetics of cell growth and PHA formation under constant process conditions. Furthermore, continuous enrichment processes constitute a tool to isolate novel powerful PHA-producing microbial strains adapted to special environmental conditions. The article discusses challenges, potential and case studies for continuous PHA production, and shows up new strategies to further enhance such processes economically by developing unsterile open continuous processes combined with the application of inexpensive carbon feedstocks. PMID:28955015

  6. Bioenergetics estimate of the effects of stocking density on hatchery production of smallmouth bass fingerlings

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robel, G.L.; Fisher, W.L.

    1999-01-01

    Production of and consumption by hatchery-reared tingerling (age-0) smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu at various simulated stocking densities were estimated with a bioenergetics model. Fish growth rates and pond water temperatures during the 1996 growing season at two hatcheries in Oklahoma were used in the model. Fish growth and simulated consumption and production differed greatly between the two hatcheries, probably because of differences in pond fertilization and mortality rates. Our results suggest that appropriate stocking density depends largely on prey availability as affected by pond fertilization and on fingerling mortality rates. The bioenergetics model provided a useful tool for estimating production at various stocking density rates. However, verification of physiological parameters for age-0 fish of hatchery-reared species is needed.

  7. Temporary hearing loss influences post-stimulus time histogram and single neuron action potential estimates from human compound action potentials

    PubMed Central

    Lichtenhan, Jeffery T.; Chertoff, Mark E.

    2008-01-01

    An analytic compound action potential (CAP) obtained by convolving functional representations of the post-stimulus time histogram summed across auditory nerve neurons [P(t)] and a single neuron action potential [U(t)] was fit to human CAPs. The analytic CAP fit to pre- and postnoise-induced temporary hearing threshold shift (TTS) estimated in vivoP(t) and U(t) and the number of neurons contributing to the CAPs (N). The width of P(t) decreased with increasing signal level and was wider at the lowest signal level following noise exposure. P(t) latency decreased with increasing signal level and was shorter at all signal levels following noise exposure. The damping and oscillatory frequency of U(t) increased with signal level. For subjects with large amounts of TTS, U(t) had greater damping than before noise exposure particularly at low signal levels. Additionally, U(t) oscillation was lower in frequency at all click intensities following noise exposure. N increased with signal level and was smaller after noise exposure at the lowest signal level. Collectively these findings indicate that neurons contributing to the CAP during TTS are fewer in number, shorter in latency, and poorer in synchrony than before noise exposure. Moreover, estimates of single neuron action potentials may decay more rapidly and have a lower oscillatory frequency during TTS. PMID:18397026

  8. Estimating the Availability of Potential Homes for Unwanted Horses in the United States

    PubMed Central

    Weiss, Emily; Dolan, Emily D.; Mohan-Gibbons, Heather; Gramann, Shannon; Slater, Margaret R.

    2017-01-01

    Simple Summary There are approximately 200,000 unwanted horses annually in the United States. Many are shipped to slaughter, enter rescue facilities, or are held on federal lands. This study aimed to estimate a potential number of available homes for unwanted horses in order to examine broadly the viability of pursuing re-homing policies as an option for the thousands of unwanted horses in the U.S. The results of this survey suggest there could be an estimated 1.2 million homes who have both the perceived resources and desire to house an unwanted horse. This number exceeds the approximately 200,000 unwanted horses living each year in the United States. These data suggest that efforts to reduce unwanted horses could involve matching such horses with adoptive homes and enhancing opportunities to keep horses in the homes they already have. Abstract There are approximately 200,000 unwanted horses annually in the United States. This study aimed to better understand the potential homes for horses that need to be re-homed. Using an independent survey company through an Omnibus telephone (land and cell) survey, we interviewed a nationally projectable sample of 3036 adults (using both landline and cellular phone numbers) to learn of their interest and capacity to adopt a horse. Potential adopters with interest in horses with medical and/or behavioral problems and self-assessed perceived capacity to adopt, constituted 0.92% of the total sample. Extrapolating the results of this survey using U.S. Census data, suggests there could be an estimated 1.25 million households who have both the self-reported and perceived resources and desire to house an unwanted horse. This number exceeds the estimated number of unwanted horses living each year in the United States. This study points to opportunities and need to increase communication and support between individuals and organizations that have unwanted horses to facilitate re-homing with people in their community willing to adopt

  9. Estimation of potential runoff-contributing areas in the Kansas-Lower Republican River Basin, Kansas

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Juracek, Kyle E.

    1999-01-01

    Digital soils and topographic data were used to estimate and compare potential runoff-contributing areas for 19 selected subbasins representing soil, slope, and runoff variability within the Kansas-Lower Republican (KLR) River Basin. Potential runoff-contributing areas were estimated separately and collectively for the processes of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess overland flow using a set of environmental conditions that represented high, moderate, and low potential runoff. For infiltration-excess overland flow, various rainfall intensities and soil permeabilities were used. For saturation-excess overland flow, antecedent soil-moisture conditions and a topographic wetness index were used. Results indicated that the subbasins with relatively high potential runoff are located in the central part of the KLR River Basin. These subbasins are Black Vermillion River, Clarks Creek, Delaware River upstream from Muscotah, Grasshopper Creek, Mill Creek (Wabaunsee County), Soldier Creek, Vermillion Creek (Pottawatomie County), and Wildcat Creek. The subbasins with relatively low potential runoff are located in the western one-third of the KLR River Basin, with one exception, and are Buffalo Creek, Little Blue River upstream from Barnes, Mill Creek (Washington County), Republican River between Concordia and Clay Center, Republican River upstream from Concordia, Wakarusa River downstream from Clinton Lake (exception), and White Rock Creek. The ability to distinguish the subbasins as having relatively high or low potential runoff was possible mostly due to the variability of soil permeability across the KLR River Basin.

  10. Potential Material Sources for Board Products: Used Pallets and Wastewood at Landfills

    Treesearch

    Philip A. Araman; Robert J. Bush; Vijay S. Reddy

    1997-01-01

    Millions of tons of pallets and other types of wood waste are being sent to landfills every year. At many landfills wood is or could be reclaimed. One potential use for this material is as furnish for board products. To evaluate the potential to reclaim wood waste for useful products we surveyed municipal solid waste (MSW) and construction and demolition (C&D)...

  11. The potential effects of climate change on the distribution and productivity of Cunninghamia lanceolata in China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yupeng; Yu, Deyong; Xun, Bin; Sun, Yun; Hao, Ruifang

    2014-01-01

    Climate changes may have immediate implications for forest productivity and may produce dramatic shifts in tree species distributions in the future. Quantifying these implications is significant for both scientists and managers. Cunninghamia lanceolata is an important coniferous timber species due to its fast growth and wide distribution in China. This paper proposes a methodology aiming at enhancing the distribution and productivity of C. lanceolata against a background of climate change. First, we simulated the potential distributions and establishment probabilities of C. lanceolata based on a species distribution model. Second, a process-based model, the PnET-II model, was calibrated and its parameterization of water balance improved. Finally, the improved PnET-II model was used to simulate the net primary productivity (NPP) of C. lanceolata. The simulated NPP and potential distribution were combined to produce an integrated indicator, the estimated total NPP, which serves to comprehensively characterize the productivity of the forest under climate change. The results of the analysis showed that (1) the distribution of C. lanceolata will increase in central China, but the mean probability of establishment will decrease in the 2050s; (2) the PnET-II model was improved, calibrated, and successfully validated for the simulation of the NPP of C. lanceolata in China; and (3) all scenarios predicted a reduction in total NPP in the 2050s, with a markedly lower reduction under the a2 scenario than under the b2 scenario. The changes in NPP suggested that forest productivity will show a large decrease in southern China and a mild increase in central China. All of these findings could improve our understanding of the impact of climate change on forest ecosystem structure and function and could provide a basis for policy-makers to apply adaptive measures and overcome the unfavorable influences of climate change.

  12. Estimation of genetic parameters for productive life, reproduction, and milk-production traits in US dairy goats.

    PubMed

    Castañeda-Bustos, V J; Montaldo, H H; Torres-Hernández, G; Pérez-Elizalde, S; Valencia-Posadas, M; Hernández-Mendo, O; Shepard, L

    2014-01-01

    Heritabilities and correlations for milk yield (MY), fat yield (FY), protein yield (PY), combined fat and protein yield (FPY), fat percentage (F%), protein percentage (P%), age at first kidding (AFK), interval between the first and second kidding (KI), and real and functional productive life at 72mo (FPL72) of 33,725 US dairy goats, were estimated using animal models. Productive life was defined as the total days in production until 72mo of age (PL72) for goats having the opportunity to express the trait. Functional productive life was obtained by correcting PL72 for MY, FY, PY, and final type score (FS). Six selection indexes were used, including or excluding PL72, with 6 groups of different economic weights, to estimate the responses to selection considering MY, FY, PY, and PL72 as selection criteria. The main criteria that determined the culling of a goat from the herd were low FS, MY, and FY per lactation. Heritability estimates were 0.22, 0.17, 0.37, 0.37, 0.38, 0.39, 0.54, 0.64, 0.09, and 0.16 for PL72, FPL72, MY, FY, PY, FPY, F%, P%, KI, and AFK, respectively. Most genetic correlations between the evaluated traits and PL72 or FPL72 were positive, except for F% (-0.04 and -0.06, respectively), P% (-0.002 and -0.03, respectively), and AFK (-0.03 and -0.01, respectively). The highest genetic correlations were between FPL72 and MY (0.39) and between PL72 and MY (0.33). Most phenotypic correlations between the traits evaluated and FPL72 and PL72 were positive (>0.23 and >0.26, respectively), except for F% (-0.004 and -0.02, respectively), P% (-0.05 and -0.02), KI (-0.01 and -0.07), and AFK (-0.08 and -0.08). The direct selection for PL72 increased it by 102.28d per generation. The use of MY, FY, PY, KI, or AFK as selection criteria increased PL72 by 39.21, 27.33, 35.90, -8.28, or 2.77d per generation, respectively. The inclusion of PL72 as selection criterion increased the expected response per generation from 0.15 to 17.35% in all selection indices studied

  13. Evaluations on the potential productivity of winter wheat based on agro-ecological zone in the world

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, H.; Li, Q.; Du, X.; Zhao, L.; Lu, Y.; Li, D.; Liu, J.

    2015-04-01

    Wheat is the most widely grown crop globally and an essential source of calories in human diets. Maintaining and increasing global wheat production is therefore strongly linked to food security. In this paper, the evaluation model of winter wheat potential productivity was proposed based on agro-ecological zone and the historical winter wheat yield data in recent 30 years (1983-2011) obtained from FAO. And the potential productions of winter wheat in the world were investigated. The results showed that the realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in Western Europe was highest and it was more than 7500 kg/hm2. The realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in North China Plain were also higher, which was about 6000 kg/hm2. However, the realistic potential productivity of winter wheat in the United States which is the main winter wheat producing country were not high, only about 3000 kg/hm2. In addition to these regions which were the main winter wheat producing areas, the realistic potential productivity in other regions of the world were very low and mainly less than 1500 kg/hm2, like in southwest region of Russia. The gaps between potential productivity and realistic productivity of winter wheat in Kazakhstan and India were biggest, and the percentages of the gap in realistic productivity of winter wheat in Kazakhstan and India were more than 40%. In Russia, the gap between potential productivity and realistic productivity of winter wheat was lowest and the percentage of the gap in realistic productivity of winter wheat in Russia was only 10%.

  14. Productivity losses from road traffic deaths in Turkey.

    PubMed

    Naci, Huseyin; Baker, Timothy D

    2008-03-01

    The importance of road traffic injuries in Turkey is not generally appreciated, in part due to lack of knowledge of its economic burden and in part due to major underestimation in official statistics. The total years of potential life lost and potentially productive years of life lost from mortality were calculated in order to estimate the cost of productivity losses from road traffic deaths in Turkey. More years of potentially productive life are lost due to road traffic deaths than to respiratory tract illnesses or diabetes mellitus, two other serious health problems in Turkey. Road traffic deaths cost Turkey an estimated USD 2.6 billion every year in productivity losses alone, more than the World Bank estimate of the indirect costs from the 1999 Marmara earthquake (USD 1.2-2 billion), Turkey's worst earthquake since 1939 (World Bank Turkey Country Office, 1999). This study highlights the importance of accurate information in ameliorating the burden of road traffic safety in Turkey. Turkey has great opportunities to implement cost-effective interventions to reduce the economic burden of fatal and non-fatal road traffic injuries.

  15. Preliminary estimate of 1942 lumber production in the Carolinas, Virginia, West Virgina, Kentucky, and Tennessee

    Treesearch

    Ardie D. Toler

    1943-01-01

    This report, giving the estimated 1942 lumber production in six states of the Appalachian Forest Experiment Station's territory, is based on a complete canvass of all sawmills. It was made during the first half of 1943 by the U.S. Forest Service in cooperation wit the Bureau of the Census, the Lumber and Lumber products Branch of the War Production Board, and the...

  16. The Learning Potential of Boundary Crossing in the Context of Product Introduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gustavsson, Maria; Säfsten, Kristina

    2017-01-01

    The aim is to explore challenges related to the integration between product development and production in product introduction and, given these challenges, to analyse the learning potential of boundary crossing in the context of product introduction. The paper draws on evidence from a Swedish manufacturing company. The theoretical framework is…

  17. Estimation of a Frontier Production Function for the South Carolina Educational Process.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooper, Samuel T.; Cohn, Elchanan

    1997-01-01

    Estimates frontier production functions for South Carolina's educational process, using data from 541 classes. Classes taught by teachers who received merit awards show greater mathematics and reading achievement gain scores, as do classes with fewer free-lunch students. There was a positive relationship between achievement and (larger) class…

  18. A simple estimate of ecosystem respiration across biomes based on MODIS products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaegermeyr, J.; Hostert, P.; Lucht, W.

    2010-12-01

    Beside carbon sequestration by terrestrial photosynthesis, in particular the subsequent carbon release by ecosystem respiration (Reco) is a crucial flux for estimating carbon budgets. Heterotrophic soil decomposition rates (Rh) and autotrophic respiration rates (Ra), which add up to Reco, are highly sensitive to environmental conditions and in some cases they determine net ecosystem productivity. Prior respiration modeling approaches revealed that a precise process-based and bottom-up modeling is important for realistic estimates. On a short timescale, as in the case of satellite environmental monitoring, simplified empirical models are not necessarily less accurate, though. For most major biomes, ecosystem carbon efflux is predominantly driven by air temperature. It can further be limited by water stress, plant activity and substrate quality. Developing simple, empirical and wall-to-wall respiration models from continuous Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land products on a continental scale can enhance our understanding of spatially explicit respiration patterns. We therefore accept model uncertainties by simplifying decay and respiratory processes in that we account for a single static carbon pool and do not include any feedback mechanisms. Preliminary results suggest that the 8-day MODIS 1km land surface temperature product (LST) and the vegetation-water index (NDWI) derived from the 8-day MODIS 500m surface reflectance product are sufficient to largely explain the variability of Reco. Spatial flux variations can be attributed to plant activity variation. We therefore introduce a site-specific, maximum leaf area index (LAI) from the MODIS 1km LAI product as a proxy. A biome-specific model parameterization and validation is performed, based on 8-day composite FLUXNET tower data representing major global biomes. We found that the frequently used temperature model by Loyd and Taylor (1994) does not show superior performance on 8-day ecosystem

  19. Identifying improvement potentials in cement production with life cycle assessment.

    PubMed

    Boesch, Michael Elias; Hellweg, Stefanie

    2010-12-01

    Cement production is an environmentally relevant process responsible for 5% of total anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions and 7% of industrial fuel use. In this study, life cycle assessment is used to evaluate improvement potentials in the cement production process in Europe and the USA. With a current fuel substitution rate of 18% in Europe and 11% in the USA, both regions have a substantial potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and save virgin resources by further increasing the coprocessing of waste fuels. Upgrading production technology would be particularly effective in the USA where many kiln systems with very low energy efficiency are still in operation. Using best available technology and a thermal substitution rate of 50% for fuels, greenhouse gas emissions could be reduced by 9% for Europe and 18% for the USA per tonne of cement. Since clinker production is the dominant pollution producing step in cement production, the substitution of clinker with mineral components such as ground granulated blast furnace slag or fly ash is an efficient measure to reduce the environmental impact. Blended cements exhibit substantially lower environmental footprints than Portland cement, even if the substitutes feature lower grindability and require additional drying and large transport distances. The highest savings in CO(2) emissions and resource consumption are achieved with a combination of measures in clinker production and cement blending.

  20. Potential restrictions for CO2 sequestration sites due to shale and tight gas production.

    PubMed

    Elliot, T R; Celia, M A

    2012-04-03

    Carbon capture and geological sequestration is the only available technology that both allows continued use of fossil fuels in the power sector and reduces significantly the associated CO(2) emissions. Geological sequestration requires a deep permeable geological formation into which captured CO(2)can be injected, and an overlying impermeable formation, called a caprock, that keeps the buoyant CO(2) within the injection formation. Shale formations typically have very low permeability and are considered to be good caprock formations. Production of natural gas from shale and other tight formations involves fracturing the shale with the explicit objective to greatly increase the permeability of the shale. As such, shale gas production is in direct conflict with the use of shale formations as a caprock barrier to CO(2) migration. We have examined the locations in the United States where deep saline aquifers, suitable for CO(2) sequestration, exist, as well as the locations of gas production from shale and other tight formations. While estimated sequestration capacity for CO(2) sequestration in deep saline aquifers is large, up to 80% of that capacity has areal overlap with potential shale-gas production regions and, therefore, could be adversely affected by shale and tight gas production. Analysis of stationary sources of CO(2) shows a similar effect: about two-thirds of the total emissions from these sources are located within 20 miles of a deep saline aquifer, but shale and tight gas production could affect up to 85% of these sources. These analyses indicate that colocation of deep saline aquifers with shale and tight gas production could significantly affect the sequestration capacity for CCS operations. This suggests that a more comprehensive management strategy for subsurface resource utilization should be developed.

  1. Modeling low-temperature serpentinization reactions to estimate molecular hydrogen production with implications for potential microbial life on Saturn's moon Enceladus.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zwicker, Jennifer; Smrzka, Daniel; Taubner, Ruth-Sophie; Bach, Wolfgang; Rittmann, Simon; Schleper, Christa; Peckmann, Jörn

    2017-04-01

    Serpentinization of ultramafic rocks attracts much interest in research on the origin of life on Earth and the search for life on extraterrestrial bodies including icy moons like Enceladus. Serpentinization on Earth occurs in peridotite-hosted systems at slow-spreading mid-ocean ridges, and produces large amounts of molecular hydrogen and methane. These reduced compounds can be utilized by diverse chemosynthetic microbial consortia as a metabolic energy source. Although many hydrothermal vents emit hot and acidic fluids today, it is more likely that life originated in the Archean at sites producing much cooler and more alkaline fluids that allowed for the synthesis and stability of essential organic molecules necessary for life. Therefore, a detailed understanding of water-rock interaction processes during low-temperature serpentinization is of crucial importance in assessing the life-sustaining potential of these environments. In the course of serpentinization, the metasomatic hydration of olivine and pyroxene produces various minerals including serpentine minerals, magnetite, brucite, and carbonates. Hydrogen production only occurs if ferrous iron within iron-bearing minerals is oxidized and incorporated as ferric iron into magnetite. The PHREEQC code was used to model the pH- and temperature-dependent dissolution of olivine and pyroxene to form serpentine, magnetite and hydrogen under pressure and temperature conditions that may exist on Saturn's icy moon Enceladus. Various model setups at 25 and 50°C were run to assess the influence of environmental parameters on hydrogen production. The results reveal that hydrogen production rates depend on the composition of the initial mineral assemblage and temperature. The current assumption is that there is a gaseous phase between Enceladus' ice sheet and subsurface ocean. To test various scenarios, model runs were conducted with and without the presence of a gas phase. The model results show that hydrogen production is

  2. Comparison of methane production potential, biodegradability, and kinetics of different organic substrates.

    PubMed

    Li, Yeqing; Zhang, Ruihong; Liu, Guangqing; Chen, Chang; He, Yanfeng; Liu, Xiaoying

    2013-12-01

    The methane production potential, biodegradability, and kinetics of a wide range of organic substrates were determined using a unified and simple method. Results showed that feedstocks that contained high energy density and easily degradable substrates exhibited high methane production potential and biodegradability. Lignocellulosic biomass with high content of fibrous compositions had low methane yield and biodegradability. Feedstocks with high lignin content (≥ 15%, on a TS basis) had low first-order rate constant (0.05-0.06 1/d) compared to others. A negative linear correlation between lignin content and experimental methane yield (or biodegradability) was found for lignocellulosic and manure wastes. This could be used as a fast method to predict the methane production potential and biodegradability of fiber-rich substrates. The findings of this study provided a database for the conversion efficiency of different organic substrates and might be useful for applications of biomethane potential assay and anaerobic digestion in the future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H.

    2014-11-01

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006-3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires "filling up" all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four.

  4. Antimicrobial potential of bacteriocins in poultry and swine production.

    PubMed

    Ben Lagha, Amel; Haas, Bruno; Gottschalk, Marcelo; Grenier, Daniel

    2017-04-11

    The routine use of antibiotics in agriculture has contributed to an increase in drug-resistant bacterial pathogens in animals that can potentially be transmitted to humans. In 2000, the World Health Organization identified resistance to antibiotics as one of the most significant global threats to public health and recommended that the use of antibiotics as additives in animal feed be phased out or terminated, particularly those used to treat human infections. Research is currently being carried out to identify alternative antimicrobial compounds for use in animal production. A number of studies, mostly in vitro, have provided evidence indicating that bacteriocins, which are antimicrobial peptides of bacterial origin, may be promising alternatives to conventional antibiotics in poultry and swine production. This review provides an update on bacteriocins and their potential for use in the poultry and swine industries.

  5. Renewable Energy Production and Urban Remediation: Modeling the biogeochemical cycle at contaminated urban brownfields and the potential for renewable energy production and mitigation of greenhouse gases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gopalakrishnan, G.

    2014-12-01

    Brownfields or urban sites that have been contaminated as a result of historic practices are present throughout the world. In the United States alone, the National Research Council has estimated that there are approximately 300,000 to 400,000 sites which have been contaminated by improper use and disposal of chemicals (NRC 1993). The land available at these sites is estimated at several million acres; however, the presence of high levels of contamination in the soil and groundwater makes it difficult to utilize these sites for traditional purposes such as agriculture. Further, the time required to remediate these contaminants to regulated levels is in the order of decades, which often results in long-term economic consequences for the areas near these sites. There has been significant interest in developing these sites as potential sources of renewable energy production in order to increase the economic viability of these sites and to provide alternative land resources for renewable energy production (EPA 2012). Solar energy, wind energy, and bioenergy from lignocellulosic biomass production have been identified as the main sources of renewable energy that can be produced at these locations. However, the environmental impacts of such a policy and the implications for greenhouse gas emissions, particularly resulting from changes in land-use impacting the biogeochemical cycle at these sites, have not been studied extensively to date. This study uses the biogeochemical process-based model DNDC to simulate carbon sequestration, nitrous oxide emissions and methane emissions from typical urban brownfield systems in the United States, when renewable energy systems are deployed. Photovoltaic solar energy and lignocellulosic biomass energy systems are evaluated here. Plants modeled include those most widely used for both bioenergy and remediation such as woody trees. Model sensitivity to soil conditions, contaminant levels and local weather data and the resulting impacts on

  6. A parabolic function to modify Thornthwaite estimates of potential evapotranspiration for the eastern United States

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    McCabe, G.J.

    1989-01-01

    Errors of the Thornthwaite model can be analyzed using adjusted pan evaporation as an index of potential evapotranspiration. An examination of ratios of adjusted pan evaporation to Thornthwaite potential evapotranspiration indicates that the ratios are highest in the winter and lowest during summer months. This trend suggests a parabolic pattern. In this study a parabolic function is used to adjust Thornthwaite estimates of potential evapotranspiration. Forty locations east of the Rocky Mountains are analyzed. -from Author

  7. An assessment of potential degradation products in the gas-phase reactions of alternative fluorocarbons in the troposphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Niki, Hiromi

    1990-01-01

    Tropospheric chemical transformations of alternative hydrofluorocarbons (HCF's) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC's) are governed by hydroxyl radical initiated oxidation processes, which are likely to be analogous to those known for alkanes and chloroalkanes. A schematic diagram is used to illustrate plausible reaction mechanisms for their atmospheric degradation, where R, R', and R'' denote the F- and/or Cl-substituted alkyl groups derived from HCF's and HCFC's subsequent th the initial H atom abstraction by HO radicals. At present, virtually no kinetic data exist for the majority of these reactions, particularly for those involving RO. Potential degradation intermediates and final products include a large variety of fluorine- and/or chlorine-containing carbonyls, acids, peroxy acids, alcohols, hydrogen peroxides, nitrates and peroxy nitrates, as summarized in the attached table. Probably atmospheric lifetimes of these compounds were also estimated. For some carbonyl and nitrate products shown in this table, there seem to be no significant gas-phase removal mechanisms. Further chemical kinetics and photochemical data are needed to quantitatively assess the atmospheric fate of HCF's and HCFC's, and of the degradation products postulated in this report.

  8. Assessment of potential toxicity of a smokeless tobacco product (naswar) available on the Pakistani market.

    PubMed

    Zakiullah; Saeed, Muhammad; Muhammad, Naveed; Khan, Saeed Ahmad; Gul, Farah; Khuda, Fazli; Humayun, Muhammad; Khan, Hamayun

    2012-07-01

    'Naswar' is a smokeless tobacco product (STP) widely used in Pakistan. It has been correlated with oral and oesophageal cancer in recent clinical studies. The toxic effects associated with STPs have been associated with trace level contaminants present in these products. The toxin levels of Pakistani naswar are reported for the first time in this study. A total of 30 Pakistani brands of naswar were tested for a variety of toxic constituents and carcinogens such as cadmium, arsenic, lead and other carcinogenic metals, nitrite and nitrate, and nicotine and pH. The average values of all the toxins studied were well above their allowable limits, making the product a health risk for consumers. Calculated lifetime cancer risk from cadmium and lead was 1 lac (100,000) to 10 lac (1,000,000) times higher than the minimum 10E-4 (0.00001) to 10E-6 (0.000001), which is the 'target range' for potentially hazardous substances, according to the US Environmental Protection Agency. Similarly, the level of arsenic was in the range of 0.15 to 14.04 μg/g, the average being 1.25 μg/g. The estimated average bioavailable concentration of arsenic is 0.125-0.25 μg/g, which is higher than the allowable standard of 0.01 μg/g. Similarly, the average minimum daily intake of chromium and nickel was 126.97 μg and 122.01 μg, as compared to allowable 30-35 μg and 35 μg, respectively; a 4-5 times higher exposure. However, beryllium was not detected in any of the brands studied. The pH was highly basic, averaging 8.56, which favours the formation of tobacco specific amines thus making the product potentially toxic. This study validates clinical studies correlating incidence of cancer with naswar use in Pakistan. This study shows that the production, packaging, sale and consumption of naswar should be regulated so as to protect the public from the health hazards associated with its consumption.

  9. Non-auditory, electrophysiological potentials preceding dolphin biosonar click production.

    PubMed

    Finneran, James J; Mulsow, Jason; Jones, Ryan; Houser, Dorian S; Accomando, Alyssa W; Ridgway, Sam H

    2018-03-01

    The auditory brainstem response to a dolphin's own emitted biosonar click can be measured by averaging epochs of the instantaneous electroencephalogram (EEG) that are time-locked to the emitted click. In this study, averaged EEGs were measured using surface electrodes placed on the head in six different configurations while dolphins performed an echolocation task. Simultaneously, biosonar click emissions were measured using contact hydrophones on the melon and a hydrophone in the farfield. The averaged EEGs revealed an electrophysiological potential (the pre-auditory wave, PAW) that preceded the production of each biosonar click. The largest PAW amplitudes occurred with the non-inverting electrode just right of the midline-the apparent side of biosonar click generation-and posterior of the blowhole. Although the source of the PAW is unknown, the temporal and spatial properties rule out an auditory source. The PAW may be a neural or myogenic potential associated with click production; however, it is not known if muscles within the dolphin nasal system can be actuated at the high rates reported for dolphin click production, or if sufficiently coordinated and fast motor endplates of nasal muscles exist to produce a PAW detectable with surface electrodes.

  10. Estimating the maximum potential revenue for grid connected electricity storage :

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Byrne, Raymond Harry; Silva Monroy, Cesar Augusto.

    2012-12-01

    The valuation of an electricity storage device is based on the expected future cash flow generated by the device. Two potential sources of income for an electricity storage system are energy arbitrage and participation in the frequency regulation market. Energy arbitrage refers to purchasing (stor- ing) energy when electricity prices are low, and selling (discharging) energy when electricity prices are high. Frequency regulation is an ancillary service geared towards maintaining system frequency, and is typically procured by the independent system operator in some type of market. This paper outlines the calculations required to estimate the maximum potential revenue from participatingmore » in these two activities. First, a mathematical model is presented for the state of charge as a function of the storage device parameters and the quantities of electricity purchased/sold as well as the quantities o ered into the regulation market. Using this mathematical model, we present a linear programming optimization approach to calculating the maximum potential revenue from an elec- tricity storage device. The calculation of the maximum potential revenue is critical in developing an upper bound on the value of storage, as a benchmark for evaluating potential trading strate- gies, and a tool for capital nance risk assessment. Then, we use historical California Independent System Operator (CAISO) data from 2010-2011 to evaluate the maximum potential revenue from the Tehachapi wind energy storage project, an American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (ARRA) energy storage demonstration project. We investigate the maximum potential revenue from two di erent scenarios: arbitrage only and arbitrage combined with the regulation market. Our analysis shows that participation in the regulation market produces four times the revenue compared to arbitrage in the CAISO market using 2010 and 2011 data. Then we evaluate several trading strategies to illustrate how they compare to

  11. Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, James E.; Nichols, James D.

    2002-01-01

    Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, u i , provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in u i We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in u i . These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for u i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) u i ' is the appropriate estimator.

  12. Predictive tool for estimating the potential effect of water fluoridation on dental caries.

    PubMed

    Foster, G R K; Downer, M C; Lunt, M; Aggarwal, V; Tickle, M

    2009-03-01

    To provide a tool for public health planners to estimate the potential improvement in dental caries in children that might be expected in a region if its water supply were to be fluoridated. Recent BASCD (British Association for the Study of Community Dentistry) dental epidemiological data for caries in 5- and 11-year-old children in English primary care trusts in fluoridated and non-fluoridated areas were analysed to estimate absolute and relative improvement in dmft/DMFT and caries-free measures observed in England. Where data were sufficient for testing significance this analysis included the effect of different levels of deprivation. A table of observed improvements was produced, together with an example of how that table can be used as a tool for estimating the expected improvement in caries in any specific region of England. Observed absolute improvements and 95% confidence intervals were: for 5-year-olds reduction in mean dmft 0.56 (0.38, 0.74) for IMD 12, 0.73 (0.60, 0.85) for IMD 20, and 0.94 (0.76, 1.12) for IMD 30, with 12% (9%, 14%) more children free of caries; for 11-year-olds reduction in mean DMFT 0.12 (0.04, 0.20) for IMD 12, 0.19 (0.13, 0.26) for IMD 20, 0.29 (0.18, 0.40) and for IMD 30, with 8% (5%, 11%) more children free from caries. The BASCD data taken together with a deprivation measure are capable of yielding an age-specific, 'intention to treat' model of water fluoridation that can be used to estimate the potential effect on caries levels of a notional new fluoridation scheme in an English region.

  13. Probabilistic exposure assessment model to estimate aseptic-UHT product failure rate.

    PubMed

    Pujol, Laure; Albert, Isabelle; Magras, Catherine; Johnson, Nicholas Brian; Membré, Jeanne-Marie

    2015-01-02

    Aseptic-Ultra-High-Temperature (UHT) products are manufactured to be free of microorganisms capable of growing in the food at normal non-refrigerated conditions at which the food is likely to be held during manufacture, distribution and storage. Two important phases within the process are widely recognised as critical in controlling microbial contamination: the sterilisation steps and the following aseptic steps. Of the microbial hazards, the pathogen spore formers Clostridium botulinum and Bacillus cereus are deemed the most pertinent to be controlled. In addition, due to a relatively high thermal resistance, Geobacillus stearothermophilus spores are considered a concern for spoilage of low acid aseptic-UHT products. A probabilistic exposure assessment model has been developed in order to assess the aseptic-UHT product failure rate associated with these three bacteria. It was a Modular Process Risk Model, based on nine modules. They described: i) the microbial contamination introduced by the raw materials, either from the product (i.e. milk, cocoa and dextrose powders and water) or the packaging (i.e. bottle and sealing component), ii) the sterilisation processes, of either the product or the packaging material, iii) the possible recontamination during subsequent processing of both product and packaging. The Sterility Failure Rate (SFR) was defined as the sum of bottles contaminated for each batch, divided by the total number of bottles produced per process line run (10(6) batches simulated per process line). The SFR associated with the three bacteria was estimated at the last step of the process (i.e. after Module 9) but also after each module, allowing for the identification of modules, and responsible contamination pathways, with higher or lower intermediate SFR. The model contained 42 controlled settings associated with factory environment, process line or product formulation, and more than 55 probabilistic inputs corresponding to inputs with variability

  14. Estimation of NOx Production from Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cramer, E. S.; Briggs, M. S.; Liu, N.; Mailyan, B.; Rassoul, H.; Dwyer, J. R.

    2016-12-01

    The motivation of this work is to understand the effects of TGFs on the ozone layer. One of the main ozone-destroying mechanisms is the production of NOx in the stratospheric region. We first review the mechanisms for NOx production in this region, specifically looking at the global rate produced by lightning. Terrestrial Gamma-ray Flashes, with runaway electron avalanches and the subsequent bremsstrahlung gamma rays, produce atmospheric ionization at all altitudes of the atmosphere. TGFs might have a greater impact on the ozone concentration in the stratosphere since they directly produce ionization and thus NOx in the ozone layer. In order to study the effect from TGFs, we use the runaway electron avalanche model (REAM) to simulate a typical TGF. The photons are then transported through Earth's atmosphere, where they deposit some of their energy as ionization in the ozone layer. We then calculate the number of NOx molecules produced by considering the average energy required to produce one electron-ion pair (W = 35 eV). The W factor has been experimentally quantified and is constant for various types of radiation and over large energy ranges and electric fields. Finally, the effect of TGF NOx production is estimated using the global annual rate of TGFs.

  15. Combined Heat and Power Market Potential for Opportunity Fuels

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Jones, David; Lemar, Paul

    This report estimates the potential for opportunity fuel combined heat and power (CHP) applications in the United States, and provides estimates for the technical and economic market potential compared to those included in an earlier report. An opportunity fuel is any type of fuel that is not widely used when compared to traditional fossil fuels. Opportunity fuels primarily consist of biomass fuels, industrial waste products and fossil fuel derivatives. These fuels have the potential to be an economically viable source of power generation in various CHP applications.

  16. Winter Crop Mapping for Improving Crop Production Estimates in Argentina Using Moderation Resolution Satellite Imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Humber, M. L.; Copati, E.; Sanchez, A.; Sahajpal, R.; Puricelli, E.; Becker-Reshef, I.

    2017-12-01

    Accurate crop production data is fundamental for reducing uncertainly and volatility in the domestic and international agricultural markets. The Agricultural Estimates Department of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has worked since 2000 on the estimation of different crop production data. With this information, the Grain Exchange helps different actors of the agricultural chain, such as producers, traders, seed companies, market analyst, policy makers, into their day to day decision making. Since 2015/16 season, the Grain Exchange has worked on the development of a new earth observations-based method to identify winter crop planted area at a regional scale with the aim of improving crop production estimates. The objective of this new methodology is to create a reliable winter crop mask at moderate spatial resolution using Landsat-8 imagery by exploiting bi-temporal differences in the phenological stages of winter crops as compared to other landcover types. In collaboration with the University of Maryland, the map has been validated by photointerpretation of a stratified statistically random sample of independent ground truth data in the four largest producing provinces of Argentina: Buenos Aires, Cordoba, La Pampa, and Santa Fe. In situ measurements were also used to further investigate conditions in the Buenos Aires province. Preliminary results indicate that while there are some avenues for improvement, overall the classification accuracy of the cropland and non-cropland classes are sufficient to improve downstream production estimates. Continuing research will focus on improving the methodology for winter crop mapping exercises on a yearly basis as well as improving the sampling methodology to optimize collection of validation data in the future.

  17. An overview of algae biofuel production and potential environmental impact.

    PubMed

    Menetrez, Marc Y

    2012-07-03

    Algae are among the most potentially significant sources of sustainable biofuels in the future of renewable energy. A feedstock with virtually unlimited applicability, algae can metabolize various waste streams (e.g., municipal wastewater, carbon dioxide from industrial flue gas) and produce products with a wide variety of compositions and uses. These products include lipids, which can be processed into biodiesel; carbohydrates, which can be processed into ethanol; and proteins, which can be used for human and animal consumption. Algae are commonly genetically engineered to allow for advantageous process modification or optimization. However, issues remain regarding human exposure to algae-derived toxins, allergens, and carcinogens from both existing and genetically modified organisms (GMOs), as well as the overall environmental impact of GMOs. A literature review was performed to highlight issues related to the growth and use of algal products for generating biofuels. Human exposure and environmental impact issues are identified and discussed, as well as current research and development activities of academic, commercial, and governmental groups. It is hoped that the ideas contained in this paper will increase environmental awareness of issues surrounding the production of algae and will help the algae industry develop to its full potential.

  18. Factors that promote renewable energy production in U.S. states: A fixed effect estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nwokeji, Ekwuniru Chika

    2011-12-01

    The unsustainability of conventional energy sources and its environmental destructions are well-known; the sustainability of renewable energy and its environmental benefits are also well-documented. The United States in common with many other countries is increasingly focused on developing renewable energy. At first, the pursuit of this strategy in U.S. was seen more as a way to reduce dependence on oil importation. With increased awareness of environmental challenges resulting from the consumption and production of conventional energy, an additional strategy for the continued interest in renewable energy development in the United States was as a result of its potential to ameliorate environmental problems. The U.S. government are utilizing policy measures and dedicating funding to encourage the development of renewable energy technologies. Beside government policies, there are contextual factors that also affect renewable energy production. These include, but not limited to population growth, energy demand, economic growth, and public acceptance. Given the pressing need to develop a sustainable energy, this study embarks on an outcome assessment of the nature of relationship of renewable energy policy incentives, and selected contextual factors on renewable energy production in the United States. The policy incentive evaluated in this study is the Renewable Energy Production Incentive program. The contextual factors evaluated in this study are energy consumption, population growth, employment, and poverty. Understanding the contextual factors within which policies are placed is essential to defining the most appropriate policy features. The methodological approach to the study is quantitative, using panel data from 1976 to 2007. The study tested two hypotheses using fixed effect estimation with robust standard error as a statistical model. Statistical analyses reveal several interesting results which lend support that besides policy incentives, contextual factors

  19. Sensitivity of Simulated Global Ocean Carbon Flux Estimates to Forcing by Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gregg, Watson W.; Casey, Nancy W.; Rousseaux, Cecile S.

    2015-01-01

    Reanalysis products from MERRA, NCEP2, NCEP1, and ECMWF were used to force an established ocean biogeochemical model to estimate air-sea carbon fluxes (FCO2) and partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) in the global oceans. Global air-sea carbon fluxes and pCO2 were relatively insensitive to the choice of forcing reanalysis. All global FCO2 estimates from the model forced by the four different reanalyses were within 20% of in situ estimates (MERRA and NCEP1 were within 7%), and all models exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with in situ estimates across the 12 major oceanographic basins. Global pCO2 estimates were within 1% of in situ estimates with ECMWF being the outlier at 0.6%. Basin correlations were similar to FCO2. There were, however, substantial departures among basin estimates from the different reanalysis forcings. The high latitudes and tropics had the largest ranges in estimated fluxes among the reanalyses. Regional pCO2 differences among the reanalysis forcings were muted relative to the FCO2 results. No individual reanalysis was uniformly better or worse in the major oceanographic basins. The results provide information on the characterization of uncertainty in ocean carbon models due to choice of reanalysis forcing.

  20. Carbon sequestration potential estimates with changes in land use and tillage practice in Ohio, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tan, Z.; Lal, R.

    2005-01-01

    Soil C sequestration through changes in land use and management is one of the important strategies to mitigate the global greenhouse effect. This study was conducted to estimate C sequestration potential of the top 20 cm depth of soil for two scenarios in Ohio, USA: (1) with reforestation of both current cropland and grassland where SOC pools are less than the baseline SOC pool under current forest; (2) with the adoption of NT on all current cropland. Based on Ohio Soil Survey Characterization Database and long-term experimental data of paired conservation tillage (CT) versus no-till (NT), we specified spatial variations of current SOC pools and C sequestration potentials associated with soil taxa within each major land resource area (MLRA). For scenario I, there would be 4.56 Mha of cropland having an average SOC sequestration capacity of 1.55 kg C m−2 and 0.80 Mha of grassland with that of 1.35 kg C m−2. Of all potential area, 73% are associated with Alfisols and 15% with Mollisols, but the achievable potential could vary significantly with individual MLRAs. Alternately, an average SOC sequestration rate of 62 g C m−2 year−1 was estimated with conversion from CT to NT for cultivated Alfisols, by which a cumulative increase of 71 Tg C resulted from reforestation of cropland could be realized in 25 years. Soils with lower antecedent C contents have higher C sequestration rates. In comparison with the results obtained at the state scale, the estimates of SOC sequestration potentials taxonomically associated with each specific MLRA may be more useful to the formulation of C credit trading programs.

  1. Potential Roles of Vocational Education in Improving the Productivity of the Workforce.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Illinois Univ., Urbana. Coll. of Education.

    This monograph is a report on the impact vocational education can have on improving worker productivity. Specifically, the monograph presents a discussion of the relationship between vocational education and productivity and identifies potential areas of impact. The first chapter discusses the concept of productivity and its relationship to…

  2. Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets

    EIA Publications

    2012-01-01

    Potential Impacts of Reductions in Refinery Activity on Northeast Petroleum Product Markets is an update to a previous Energy Information Administration (EIA) report, Reductions in Northeast Refining Activity: Potential Implications for Petroleum Product Markets, released in December 2011. This update analyzes possible market responses and impacts in the event Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery closes this summer, in addition to the recently idled refineries on the East Coast and in the U.S. Virgin Islands.

  3. Estimating pharmacy level prescription drug acquisition costs for third-party reimbursement.

    PubMed

    Kreling, D H; Kirk, K W

    1986-07-01

    Accurate payment for the acquisition costs of drug products dispensed is an important consideration in a third-party prescription drug program. Two alternative methods of estimating these costs among pharmacies were derived and compared. First, pharmacists were surveyed to determine the purchase discounts offered to them by wholesalers. A 10.00% modal and 11.35% mean discount resulted for 73 responding pharmacists. Second, cost-plus percents derived from gross profit margins of wholesalers were calculated and applied to wholesaler product costs to estimate pharmacy level acquisition costs. Cost-plus percents derived from National Median and Southwestern Region wholesaler figures were 9.27% and 10.10%, respectively. A comparison showed the two methods of estimating acquisition costs would result in similar acquisition cost estimates. Adopting a cost-plus estimating approach is recommended because it avoids potential pricing manipulations by wholesalers and manufacturers that would negate improvements in drug product reimbursement accuracy.

  4. Estimation of invertebrate production from patterns of fish predation in western Lake Superior

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Johnson, Timothy B.; Mason, Doran M.; Bronte, Charles R.; Kitchell, James F.

    1998-01-01

    We used bioenergetic models for lake herring Coregonus artedi, bloater Coregonus hoyi, and rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax to estimate consumption of zooplankton,Mysis, andDiporeia in western Lake Superior for selected years between 1978 and 1995. Total invertebrate biomass consumed yearly ranged from 2.5 to 38 g/m2 with nearly 40% consumed between August and October in all years. Copepod zooplankton represented the largest proportion of biomass collectively consumed by the three species (81%), although rainbow smelt consumed almost twice as much Mysis as zooplankton. Growth efficiency was highest for rainbow smelt (3.84–16.64%) and lower for the coregonids (1.91–12.26%). In the absence of quantitative secondary production values, we suggest our estimates of predatory demand provide a conservative range of the minimum invertebrate production in western Lake Superior during the past 20 years.

  5. Small sample estimation of the reliability function for technical products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyamets, L. L.; Yakimenko, I. V.; Kanishchev, O. A.; Bliznyuk, O. A.

    2017-12-01

    It is demonstrated that, in the absence of big statistic samples obtained as a result of testing complex technical products for failure, statistic estimation of the reliability function of initial elements can be made by the moments method. A formal description of the moments method is given and its advantages in the analysis of small censored samples are discussed. A modified algorithm is proposed for the implementation of the moments method with the use of only the moments at which the failures of initial elements occur.

  6. Theoretical and Experimental Investigations of the Potential of Osmotic Energy for Power Production

    PubMed Central

    Sharif, Adel O.; Merdaw, Ali A.; Aryafar, Maryam; Nicoll, Peter

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a study on the potential of osmotic energy for power production. The study includes both pilot plant testing and theoretical modelling as well as cost estimation. A projected cost of £30/MWh of clean electricity could be achieved by using a Hydro-Osmotic Power (HOP) plant if a suitable membrane is used and the osmotic potential difference between the two solutions is greater than 25 bar; a condition that can be readily found in many sites around the world. Results have shown that the membrane system accounts for 50%–80% of the HOP plant cost depending on the salinity difference level. Thus, further development in membrane technology and identifying suitable membranes would have a significant impact on the feasibility of the process and the route to market. As the membrane permeability determines the HOP process feasibility, this paper also describes the effect of the interaction between the fluid and the membrane on the system permeability. It has been shown that both the fluid physical properties as well as the membrane micro-structural parameters need to be considered if further development of the HOP process is to be achieved. PMID:25110959

  7. Potential contribution of genomics and biotechnology in animal production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    The overall objective of the book chapter is to define the potential contribution of genomics in livestock production in Latin American countries. A brief description on what is genomics, genome-wide association studies (GWAS), and genomic selection (GS) is provided. Genomics has been rapidly adopte...

  8. Fish trypsins: potential applications in biomedicine and prospects for production.

    PubMed

    Jesús-de la Cruz, Kristal; Álvarez-González, Carlos Alfonso; Peña, Emyr; Morales-Contreras, José Antonio; Ávila-Fernández, Ángela

    2018-04-01

    In fishes, trypsins are adapted to different environmental conditions, and the biochemical and kinetic properties of a broad variety of native isoforms have been studied. Proteolytic enzymes remain in high demand in the detergent, food, and feed industries; however, our analysis of the literature showed that, in the last decade, some fish trypsins have been studied for the synthesis of industrial peptides and for specific biomedical uses as antipathogenic agents against viruses and bacteria, which have been recently patented. In addition, innovative strategies of trypsin administration have been studied to ensure that trypsins retain their properties until they exert their action. Biomedical uses require the production of high-quality enzymes. In this context, the production of recombinant trypsins is an alternative. For this purpose, E. coli -based systems have been tested for the production of fish trypsins; however, P. pastoris -based systems also seem to show great potential in the production of fish trypsins with higher production quality. On the other hand, there is a lack of information regarding the specific structures, biochemical and kinetic properties, and characteristics of trypsins produced using heterologous systems. This review describes the potential uses of fish trypsins in biomedicine and the enzymatic and structural properties of native and recombinant fish trypsins obtained to date, outlining some prospects for their study.

  9. Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

    1997-01-01

    The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

  10. Potential insurance products for Brownfields Cleanup and redevelopment. Survey results of insurance industry products available for transference of risk at potentially contaminated property

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    NONE

    The following report discusses the findings of this survey in greater depth. Section I provides an overview of the potential risks encountered by owners of potentially contaminated property and discusses common ways key players control these risks, including the use of insurance. Section II describes how the insurance industry works and provides an overview of the main environmental insurance products, a discussion of the survey findings, and market factors that influence environmental insurance policies. Section III offers concluding remarks and recommendations.

  11. Forest biorefinery: Potential of poplar phytochemicals as value-added co-products.

    PubMed

    Devappa, Rakshit K; Rakshit, Sudip K; Dekker, Robert F H

    2015-11-01

    The global forestry industry after experiencing a market downturn during the past decade has now aimed its vision towards the integrated biorefinery. New business models and strategies are constantly being explored to re-invent the global wood and pulp/paper industry through sustainable resource exploitation. The goal is to produce diversified, innovative and revenue generating product lines using on-site bioresources (wood and tree residues). The most popular product lines are generally produced from wood fibers (biofuels, pulp/paper, biomaterials, and bio/chemicals). However, the bark and other tree residues like foliage that constitute forest wastes, still remain largely an underexploited resource from which extractives and phytochemicals can be harnessed as by-products (biopharmaceuticals, food additives and nutraceuticals, biopesticides, cosmetics). Commercially, Populus (poplar) tree species including hybrid varieties are cultivated as a fast growing bioenergy crop, but can also be utilized to produce bio-based chemicals. This review identifies and underlines the potential of natural products (phytochemicals) from Populus species that could lead to new business ventures in biorefineries and contribute to the bioeconomy. In brief, this review highlights the importance of by-products/co-products in forest industries, methods that can be employed to extract and purify poplar phytochemicals, the potential pharmaceutical and other uses of >160 phytochemicals identified from poplar species - their chemical structures, properties and bioactivities, the challenges and limitations of utilizing poplar phytochemicals, and potential commercial opportunities. Finally, the overall discussion and conclusion are made considering the recent biotechnological advances in phytochemical research to indicate the areas for future commercial applications from poplar tree species. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Wavemill Product Assessment- Defining Products and Evaluating Potential Performance from a Novel Spaceborne Interferometric SAR

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cotton, P. D.; Gommenginger, C.; Martin, A.; Marquez, J.; Burbidge, G.; Quilfen, Y.; Chapron, B.; Reppucci, A.; Buck, C.

    2016-08-01

    Ocean Surface Currents are one of the most important ocean properties for oceanographers and operators in the maritime domain. Improved monitoring of ocean currents is systematically the number one requirement that emerges from any science or end user requirement surveys.Wavemill is a novel hybrid interferometric SAR system first proposed by ESA/ESTEC [Buck, 2005]. It offers the possibility of generating two-dimensional wide swath, high resolution, high precision maps of surface current vectors and ocean topography [Buck et al., 2009]. Based on a single spacecraft, it avoids the difficulties of synchronisation and baseline estimation associated with other interferometric SAR systems based on two or more satellites (e.g. the "cartwheel" or "helix" concept).The Wavemill concept has developed steadily since its first inception in 2005. A number of Wavemill studies in recent years have gradually put together facts and figures to support the case for Wavemill as a possible space-borne mission.The Wavemill Product Assessment study (WaPA) aimed to define the scientific capabilities and limitations of a spaceborne Wavemill instrument in preparation for a possible submission of the Wavemill concept as a candidate Earth Explorer Core mission. The WaPA project team brought together expert scientists and engineers in the field of SAR imaging of ocean currents, and included the National Oceanography Centre (UK), Starlab (Spain), IFREMER (France) and Airbus Defence and Space (UK). Overall project management was provided by Satellite Oceanographic Consultants (UK). The approach taken included:- A review of SAR imaging of ocean currents in along-track interferometric mode to learn from previous experiments and modelling what key phenomena need to be accounted for to determine the true performance of a spaceborne Wavemill system- Validation of proposed Wavemill primary products based on Wavemill airborne proof-of-concept data and numerical simulations to determine the capabilities

  13. Comparative Evaluation of Two Methods to Estimate Natural Gas Production in Texas

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    This report describes an evaluation conducted by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in August 2003 of two methods that estimate natural gas production in Texas. The first method (parametric method) was used by EIA from February through August 2003 and the second method (multinomial method) replaced it starting in September 2003, based on the results of this evaluation.

  14. Rainfall estimation by inverting SMOS soil moisture estimates: A comparison of different methods over Australia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brocca, Luca; Pellarin, Thierry; Crow, Wade T.; Ciabatta, Luca; Massari, Christian; Ryu, Dongryeol; Su, Chun-Hsu; Rüdiger, Christoph; Kerr, Yann

    2016-10-01

    Remote sensing of soil moisture has reached a level of maturity and accuracy for which the retrieved products can be used to improve hydrological and meteorological applications. In this study, the soil moisture product from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite is used for improving satellite rainfall estimates obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission multisatellite precipitation analysis product (TMPA) using three different "bottom up" techniques: SM2RAIN, Soil Moisture Analysis Rainfall Tool, and Antecedent Precipitation Index Modification. The implementation of these techniques aims at improving the well-known "top down" rainfall estimate derived from TMPA products (version 7) available in near real time. Ground observations provided by the Australian Water Availability Project are considered as a separate validation data set. The three algorithms are calibrated against the gauge-corrected TMPA reanalysis product, 3B42, and used for adjusting the TMPA real-time product, 3B42RT, using SMOS soil moisture data. The study area covers the entire Australian continent, and the analysis period ranges from January 2010 to November 2013. Results show that all the SMOS-based rainfall products improve the performance of 3B42RT, even at daily time scale (differently from previous investigations). The major improvements are obtained in terms of estimation of accumulated rainfall with a reduction of the root-mean-square error of more than 25%. Also, in terms of temporal dynamic (correlation) and rainfall detection (categorical scores) the SMOS-based products provide slightly better results with respect to 3B42RT, even though the relative performance between the methods is not always the same. The strengths and weaknesses of each algorithm and the spatial variability of their performances are identified in order to indicate the ways forward for this promising research activity. Results show that the integration of bottom up and top down approaches

  15. The potential of using remote sensing data to estimate air-sea CO2 exchange in the Baltic Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parard, Gaëlle; Rutgersson, Anna; Parampil, Sindu Raj; Alexandre Charantonis, Anastase

    2017-12-01

    In this article, we present the first climatological map of air-sea CO2 flux over the Baltic Sea based on remote sensing data: estimates of pCO2 derived from satellite imaging using self-organizing map classifications along with class-specific linear regressions (SOMLO methodology) and remotely sensed wind estimates. The estimates have a spatial resolution of 4 km both in latitude and longitude and a monthly temporal resolution from 1998 to 2011. The CO2 fluxes are estimated using two types of wind products, i.e. reanalysis winds and satellite wind products, the higher-resolution wind product generally leading to higher-amplitude flux estimations. Furthermore, the CO2 fluxes were also estimated using two methods: the method of Wanninkhof et al. (2013) and the method of Rutgersson and Smedman (2009). The seasonal variation in fluxes reflects the seasonal variation in pCO2 unvaryingly over the whole Baltic Sea, with high winter CO2 emissions and high pCO2 uptakes. All basins act as a source for the atmosphere, with a higher degree of emission in the southern regions (mean source of 1.6 mmol m-2 d-1 for the South Basin and 0.9 for the Central Basin) than in the northern regions (mean source of 0.1 mmol m-2 d-1) and the coastal areas act as a larger sink (annual uptake of -4.2 mmol m-2 d-1) than does the open sea (-4 mmol m-2 d-1). In its entirety, the Baltic Sea acts as a small source of 1.2 mmol m-2 d-1 on average and this annual uptake has increased from 1998 to 2012.

  16. A Study on Grid-Square Statistics Based Estimation of Regional Electricity Demand and Regional Potential Capacity of Distributed Generators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kato, Takeyoshi; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Suzuoki, Yasuo

    We established a procedure for estimating regional electricity demand and regional potential capacity of distributed generators (DGs) by using a grid square statistics data set. A photovoltaic power system (PV system) for residential use and a co-generation system (CGS) for both residential and commercial use were taken into account. As an example, the result regarding Aichi prefecture was presented in this paper. The statistical data of the number of households by family-type and the number of employees by business category for about 4000 grid-square with 1km × 1km area was used to estimate the floor space or the electricity demand distribution. The rooftop area available for installing PV systems was also estimated with the grid-square statistics data set. Considering the relation between a capacity of existing CGS and a scale-index of building where CGS is installed, the potential capacity of CGS was estimated for three business categories, i.e. hotel, hospital, store. In some regions, the potential capacity of PV systems was estimated to be about 10,000kW/km2, which corresponds to the density of the existing area with intensive installation of PV systems. Finally, we discussed the ratio of regional potential capacity of DGs to regional maximum electricity demand for deducing the appropriate capacity of DGs in the model of future electricity distribution system.

  17. The potential of C4 grasses for cellulosic biofuel production

    PubMed Central

    van der Weijde, Tim; Alvim Kamei, Claire L.; Torres, Andres F.; Vermerris, Wilfred; Dolstra, Oene; Visser, Richard G. F.; Trindade, Luisa M.

    2013-01-01

    With the advent of biorefinery technologies enabling plant biomass to be processed into biofuel, many researchers set out to study and improve candidate biomass crops. Many of these candidates are C4 grasses, characterized by a high productivity and resource use efficiency. In this review the potential of five C4 grasses as lignocellulosic feedstock for biofuel production is discussed. These include three important field crops—maize, sugarcane and sorghum—and two undomesticated perennial energy grasses—miscanthus and switchgrass. Although all these grasses are high yielding, they produce different products. While miscanthus and switchgrass are exploited exclusively for lignocellulosic biomass, maize, sorghum, and sugarcane are dual-purpose crops. It is unlikely that all the prerequisites for the sustainable and economic production of biomass for a global cellulosic biofuel industry will be fulfilled by a single crop. High and stable yields of lignocellulose are required in diverse environments worldwide, to sustain a year-round production of biofuel. A high resource use efficiency is indispensable to allow cultivation with minimal inputs of nutrients and water and the exploitation of marginal soils for biomass production. Finally, the lignocellulose composition of the feedstock should be optimized to allow its efficient conversion into biofuel and other by-products. Breeding for these objectives should encompass diverse crops, to meet the demands of local biorefineries and provide adaptability to different environments. Collectively, these C4 grasses are likely to play a central role in the supply of lignocellulose for the cellulosic ethanol industry. Moreover, as these species are evolutionary closely related, advances in each of these crops will expedite improvements in the other crops. This review aims to provide an overview of their potential, prospects and research needs as lignocellulose feedstocks for the commercial production of biofuel. PMID:23653628

  18. Improved estimates of net primary productivity from MODIS satellite data at regional and local scales

    Treesearch

    Yude Pan; Richard Birdsey; John Hom; Kevin McCullough; Kenneth Clark

    2006-01-01

    We compared estimates of net primary production (NPP) from the MODIS satellite with estimates from a forest ecosystem process model (PnET-CN) and forest inventory and analysis (FIA) data for forest types of the mid-Atlantic region of the United States. The regional means were similar for the three methods and for the dominant oak? hickory forests in the region. However...

  19. Age ratios as estimators of productivity: testing assumptions on a threatened seabird, the marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus)

    Treesearch

    M. Zachariah Peery; Benjamin H. Becker; Steven R. Beissinger

    2007-01-01

    The ratio of hatch-year (HY) to after-hatch-year (AHY) individuals (HY:AHY ratio) can be a valuable metric for estimating avian productivity because it does not require monitoring individual breeding sites and can often be estimated across large geographic and temporal scales. However, rigorous estimation of age ratios requires that both young and adult age classes are...

  20. Comparison of modeling approaches to prioritize chemicals based on estimates of exposure and exposure potential.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, Jade; Arnot, Jon A; Jolliet, Olivier; Georgopoulos, Panos G; Isukapalli, Sastry; Dasgupta, Surajit; Pandian, Muhilan; Wambaugh, John; Egeghy, Peter; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A; Vallero, Daniel A

    2013-08-01

    While only limited data are available to characterize the potential toxicity of over 8 million commercially available chemical substances, there is even less information available on the exposure and use-scenarios that are required to link potential toxicity to human and ecological health outcomes. Recent improvements and advances such as high throughput data gathering, high performance computational capabilities, and predictive chemical inherency methodology make this an opportune time to develop an exposure-based prioritization approach that can systematically utilize and link the asymmetrical bodies of knowledge for hazard and exposure. In response to the US EPA's need to develop novel approaches and tools for rapidly prioritizing chemicals, a "Challenge" was issued to several exposure model developers to aid the understanding of current systems in a broader sense and to assist the US EPA's effort to develop an approach comparable to other international efforts. A common set of chemicals were prioritized under each current approach. The results are presented herein along with a comparative analysis of the rankings of the chemicals based on metrics of exposure potential or actual exposure estimates. The analysis illustrates the similarities and differences across the domains of information incorporated in each modeling approach. The overall findings indicate a need to reconcile exposures from diffuse, indirect sources (far-field) with exposures from directly, applied chemicals in consumer products or resulting from the presence of a chemical in a microenvironment like a home or vehicle. Additionally, the exposure scenario, including the mode of entry into the environment (i.e. through air, water or sediment) appears to be an important determinant of the level of agreement between modeling approaches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Comparison of modeling approaches to prioritize chemicals based on estimates of exposure and exposure potential

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Jade; Arnot, Jon A.; Jolliet, Olivier; Georgopoulos, Panos G.; Isukapalli, Sastry; Dasgupta, Surajit; Pandian, Muhilan; Wambaugh, John; Egeghy, Peter; Cohen Hubal, Elaine A.; Vallero, Daniel A.

    2014-01-01

    While only limited data are available to characterize the potential toxicity of over 8 million commercially available chemical substances, there is even less information available on the exposure and use-scenarios that are required to link potential toxicity to human and ecological health outcomes. Recent improvements and advances such as high throughput data gathering, high performance computational capabilities, and predictive chemical inherency methodology make this an opportune time to develop an exposure-based prioritization approach that can systematically utilize and link the asymmetrical bodies of knowledge for hazard and exposure. In response to the US EPA’s need to develop novel approaches and tools for rapidly prioritizing chemicals, a “Challenge” was issued to several exposure model developers to aid the understanding of current systems in a broader sense and to assist the US EPA’s effort to develop an approach comparable to other international efforts. A common set of chemicals were prioritized under each current approach. The results are presented herein along with a comparative analysis of the rankings of the chemicals based on metrics of exposure potential or actual exposure estimates. The analysis illustrates the similarities and differences across the domains of information incorporated in each modeling approach. The overall findings indicate a need to reconcile exposures from diffuse, indirect sources (far-field) with exposures from directly, applied chemicals in consumer products or resulting from the presence of a chemical in a microenvironment like a home or vehicle. Additionally, the exposure scenario, including the mode of entry into the environment (i.e. through air, water or sediment) appears to be an important determinant of the level of agreement between modeling approaches. PMID:23707726

  2. Estimating Precipitation Susceptibility in Warm Marine Clouds Using Multi-sensor Aerosol and Cloud Products from A-Train Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bai, H.; Gong, C.; Wang, M.; Zhang, Z.

    2017-12-01

    Precipitation susceptibility to aerosol perturbation plays a key role in understanding aerosol-cloud interactions and constraining aerosol indirect effects. However, large discrepancies exist in the previous satellite estimates of precipitation susceptibility. In this paper, multi-sensor aerosol and cloud products, including those from CALIPSO, CloudSat, MODIS, and AMSR-E from June 2006 to April 2011 are analyzed to estimate precipitation susceptibility (including precipitation frequency susceptibility SPOP, precipitation intensity susceptibility SI, and precipitation rate susceptibility SR) in warm marine clouds. Our results show that SPOP demonstrates relatively robust features throughout independent LWP products and diverse rain products. In contrast, the behaviors of SI are more subject to LWP or rain products. Our results further show that SPOP strongly depends on atmospherics stability, with larger value under more stable environment. Precipitation susceptibility calculated with respect to cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) is generally much larger than that estimated with respect to aerosol index (AI), which results from the weak dependency of CDNC on AI.

  3. Noise-induced errors in geophysical parameter estimation from retarding potential analyzers in low Earth orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Debchoudhury, Shantanab; Earle, Gregory

    2017-04-01

    Retarding Potential Analyzers (RPA) have a rich flight heritage. Standard curve-fitting analysis techniques exist that can infer state variables in the ionospheric plasma environment from RPA data, but the estimation process is prone to errors arising from a number of sources. Previous work has focused on the effects of grid geometry on uncertainties in estimation; however, no prior study has quantified the estimation errors due to additive noise. In this study, we characterize the errors in estimation of thermal plasma parameters by adding noise to the simulated data derived from the existing ionospheric models. We concentrate on low-altitude, mid-inclination orbits since a number of nano-satellite missions are focused on this region of the ionosphere. The errors are quantified and cross-correlated for varying geomagnetic conditions.

  4. Intracranial EEG potentials estimated from MEG sources: A new approach to correlate MEG and iEEG data in epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Grova, Christophe; Aiguabella, Maria; Zelmann, Rina; Lina, Jean-Marc; Hall, Jeffery A; Kobayashi, Eliane

    2016-05-01

    Detection of epileptic spikes in MagnetoEncephaloGraphy (MEG) requires synchronized neuronal activity over a minimum of 4cm2. We previously validated the Maximum Entropy on the Mean (MEM) as a source localization able to recover the spatial extent of the epileptic spike generators. The purpose of this study was to evaluate quantitatively, using intracranial EEG (iEEG), the spatial extent recovered from MEG sources by estimating iEEG potentials generated by these MEG sources. We evaluated five patients with focal epilepsy who had a pre-operative MEG acquisition and iEEG with MRI-compatible electrodes. Individual MEG epileptic spikes were localized along the cortical surface segmented from a pre-operative MRI, which was co-registered with the MRI obtained with iEEG electrodes in place for identification of iEEG contacts. An iEEG forward model estimated the influence of every dipolar source of the cortical surface on each iEEG contact. This iEEG forward model was applied to MEG sources to estimate iEEG potentials that would have been generated by these sources. MEG-estimated iEEG potentials were compared with measured iEEG potentials using four source localization methods: two variants of MEM and two standard methods equivalent to minimum norm and LORETA estimates. Our results demonstrated an excellent MEG/iEEG correspondence in the presumed focus for four out of five patients. In one patient, the deep generator identified in iEEG could not be localized in MEG. MEG-estimated iEEG potentials is a promising method to evaluate which MEG sources could be retrieved and validated with iEEG data, providing accurate results especially when applied to MEM localizations. Hum Brain Mapp 37:1661-1683, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Production potential of biomass feedstocks. Final report. [Saltbush, Johnsongrass, Kochia, Mesquite

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Goodin, J.R.; Newton, R.J.

    1983-08-31

    This final report summarizes biomass research on unconventional plants utilizing the concept that semi-arid lands may be advantageous and unique for biomass production because there would be little competition for irrigation water and land areas traditionally used for food and fiber production. The objectives are to: (1) evaluate the establishment and productivity potential of plant species in west Texas as influenced by rainfall, temperature and minimum cultural practices; and (2) accurately assess the present distribution and acreages inhabited by the four candidates in west Texas as well as the soil, geographical and climatic factors which govern their adaptation; and (3)more » provide productivity data in order to make adequate economic and sociological assessments of biomass production in west Texas. Seedlings of four biomass plant species originally screened from 2900 potential species have been established in a greenhouse and transplants of saltbush (Atriplex canescens), Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense), kochia (Kochia scoparia), and mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa) have been planted at Brady, Big Lake, El Paso and Lubbock. Saltbush seedlings have also been established at Pecos. 35 references, 12 figures, 21 tables.« less

  6. Investigations of potential bias in the estimation of lambda using Pradel's (1996) model for capture-recapture data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.

    2002-01-01

    Pradel's (1996) temporal symmetry model permitting direct estimation and modelling of population growth rate, lambda sub i provides a potentially useful tool for the study of population dynamics using marked animals. Because of its recent publication date, the approach has not seen much use, and there have been virtually no investigations directed at robustness of the resulting estimators. Here we consider several potential sources of bias, all motivated by specific uses of this estimation approach. We consider sampling situations in which the study area expands with time and present an analytic expression for the bias in lambda hat sub i. We next consider trap response in capture probabilities and heterogeneous capture probabilities and compute large-sample and simulation-based approximations of resulting bias in lambda hat sub i. These approximations indicate that trap response is an especially important assumption violation that can produce substantial bias. Finally, we consider losses on capture and emphasize the importance of selecting the estimator for lambda sub i that is appropriate to the question being addressed. For studies based on only sighting and resighting data, Pradel's (1996) lambda hat prime sub i is the appropriate estimator.

  7. Real time estimation of generation, extinction and flow of muscle fibre action potentials in high density surface EMG.

    PubMed

    Mesin, Luca

    2015-02-01

    Developing a real time method to estimate generation, extinction and propagation of muscle fibre action potentials from bi-dimensional and high density surface electromyogram (EMG). A multi-frame generalization of an optical flow technique including a source term is considered. A model describing generation, extinction and propagation of action potentials is fit to epochs of surface EMG. The algorithm is tested on simulations of high density surface EMG (inter-electrode distance equal to 5mm) from finite length fibres generated using a multi-layer volume conductor model. The flow and source term estimated from interference EMG reflect the anatomy of the muscle, i.e. the direction of the fibres (2° of average estimation error) and the positions of innervation zone and tendons under the electrode grid (mean errors of about 1 and 2mm, respectively). The global conduction velocity of the action potentials from motor units under the detection system is also obtained from the estimated flow. The processing time is about 1 ms per channel for an epoch of EMG of duration 150 ms. A new real time image processing algorithm is proposed to investigate muscle anatomy and activity. Potential applications are proposed in prosthesis control, automatic detection of optimal channels for EMG index extraction and biofeedback. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. A Framework of Combining Case-Based Reasoning with a Work Breakdown Structure for Estimating the Cost of Online Course Production Projects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    He, Wu

    2014-01-01

    Currently, a work breakdown structure (WBS) approach is used as the most common cost estimation approach for online course production projects. To improve the practice of cost estimation, this paper proposes a novel framework to estimate the cost for online course production projects using a case-based reasoning (CBR) technique and a WBS. A…

  9. Years of potential life lost and productivity costs because of cancer mortality and for specific cancer sites where human papillomavirus may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis-United States, 2003.

    PubMed

    Ekwueme, Donatus U; Chesson, Harrell W; Zhang, Kevin B; Balamurugan, Appathurai

    2008-11-15

    Although years of potential life lost (YPLL) and mortality-related productivity costs comprise a substantial portion of the burden of cancers where human papillomavirus (HPV) may be a risk factor for carcinogenesis (called HPV-associated cancers in this report), estimates of these costs are limited. The authors estimated the mortality-related burden (in terms of YPLL and productivity costs) of HPV-associated cancers (without regard to the percentage of each of these cancers that could be attributed to HPV) and all malignant cancers in the United States in 2003. The authors used 2003 national mortality data and US life tables to estimate YPLL for HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. YPLL was estimated by using the life expectancy method. The human capital approach was used to estimate the value of the expected future lifetime productivity losses caused by premature deaths from HPV-associated cancers and all malignant cancers. Indirect mortality costs were estimated as the product of the number of deaths and the expected value of individuals' future earnings, including an imputed value of housekeeping services. In 2003, HPV-associated cancers accounted for 181,026 YPLL, which represented 2.4% of the estimated 7.5 million YPLL attributable to all malignant cancers in the United States. The average number of YPLL was 21.8 per HPV-associated cancer death and 16.3 per death from overall malignant cancers. Overall, HPV-associated cancers had the largest relative contribution to YPLL in women ages 30 to 34 years. The lifetime productivity cost from mortality in 2003 was $3.7 billion for HPV-associated cancer mortality and $133.5 billion for overall malignant cancer mortality. HPV-associated cancers impose a considerable burden in terms of premature deaths and productivity losses.

  10. Price Estimation Guidelines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chamberlain, R. G.; Aster, R. W.; Firnett, P. J.; Miller, M. A.

    1985-01-01

    Improved Price Estimation Guidelines, IPEG4, program provides comparatively simple, yet relatively accurate estimate of price of manufactured product. IPEG4 processes user supplied input data to determine estimate of price per unit of production. Input data include equipment cost, space required, labor cost, materials and supplies cost, utility expenses, and production volume on industry wide or process wide basis.

  11. Further Characterization of CELSS Wastes: A Review of Solid Wastes Present to Support Potential Secondary Biomass Production

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muller, Matthew S.

    1996-01-01

    Controlled ecological life support systems (CELSS) may one day play an essential role in extraterrestrial colonies. Key to the success of any CELSS will be the system's ability to approach a self-supporting status through recovery and reuse of basic resources. Primary CELSS solid wastes with potential to support secondary biomass production will be inedible plant biomass and metabolic human wastes. Solid waste production is summarized and reported as 765 g N per day per person, including 300 g C and 37 g N per day per person. One Resource Recovery configuration using the bioprocessing of solid wastes into a Tilapia feed stream is examined. Based on estimated conversion efficiencies, 12 g of protein per day per person is produced as a nutrition supplement. The unique tissue composition of crops produced at the Kennedy Space Center CELSS Program highlights the need to evaluate Resource Recovery components with data generated in the CELSS environment.

  12. Membrane bioreactors' potential for ethanol and biogas production: a review.

    PubMed

    Ylitervo, Päivi; Akinbomia, Julius; Taherzadeha, Mohammad J

    2013-01-01

    Companies developing and producing membranes for different separation purposes, as well as the market for these, have markedly increased in numbers over the last decade. Membrane and separation technology might well contribute to making fuel ethanol and biogas production from lignocellulosic materials more economically viable and productive. Combining biological processes with membrane separation techniques in a membrane bioreactor (MBR) increases cell concentrations extensively in the bioreactor. Such a combination furthermore reduces product inhibition during the biological process, increases product concentration and productivity, and simplifies the separation of product and/or cells. Various MBRs have been studied over the years, where the membrane is either submerged inside the liquid to be filtered, or placed in an external loop outside the bioreactor. All configurations have advantages and drawbacks, as reviewed in this paper. The current review presents an account of the membrane separation technologies, and the research performed on MBRs, focusing on ethanol and biogas production. The advantages and potentials of the technology are elucidated.

  13. Communication: Estimating the initial biasing potential for λ-local-elevation umbrella-sampling (λ-LEUS) simulations via slow growth

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Bieler, Noah S.; Hünenberger, Philippe H., E-mail: phil@igc.phys.chem.ethz.ch

    2014-11-28

    In a recent article [Bieler et al., J. Chem. Theory Comput. 10, 3006–3022 (2014)], we introduced a combination of the λ-dynamics (λD) approach for calculating alchemical free-energy differences and of the local-elevation umbrella-sampling (LEUS) memory-based biasing method to enhance the sampling along the alchemical coordinate. The combined scheme, referred to as λ-LEUS, was applied to the perturbation of hydroquinone to benzene in water as a test system, and found to represent an improvement over thermodynamic integration (TI) in terms of sampling efficiency at equivalent accuracy. However, the preoptimization of the biasing potential required in the λ-LEUS method requires “filling up”more » all the basins in the potential of mean force. This introduces a non-productive pre-sampling time that is system-dependent, and generally exceeds the corresponding equilibration time in a TI calculation. In this letter, a remedy is proposed to this problem, termed the slow growth memory guessing (SGMG) approach. Instead of initializing the biasing potential to zero at the start of the preoptimization, an approximate potential of mean force is estimated from a short slow growth calculation, and its negative used to construct the initial memory. Considering the same test system as in the preceding article, it is shown that of the application of SGMG in λ-LEUS permits to reduce the preoptimization time by about a factor of four.« less

  14. Polyhydroxyalkanoate Production on Waste Water Treatment Plants: Process Scheme, Operating Conditions and Potential Analysis for German and European Municipal Waste Water Treatment Plants

    PubMed Central

    Pittmann, Timo; Steinmetz, Heidrun

    2017-01-01

    This work describes the production of polyhydroxyalkanoates (PHA) as a side stream process on a municipal waste water treatment plant (WWTP) and a subsequent analysis of the production potential in Germany and the European Union (EU). Therefore, tests with different types of sludge from a WWTP were investigated regarding their volatile fatty acids (VFA) production-potential. Afterwards, primary sludge was used as substrate to test a series of operating conditions (temperature, pH, retention time (RT) and withdrawal (WD)) in order to find suitable settings for a high and stable VFA production. In a second step, various tests regarding a high PHA production and stable PHA composition to determine the influence of substrate concentration, temperature, pH and cycle time of an installed feast/famine-regime were conducted. Experiments with a semi-continuous reactor operation showed that a short RT of 4 days and a small WD of 25% at pH = 6 and around 30 °C is preferable for a high VFA production rate (PR) of 1913 mgVFA/(L×d) and a stable VFA composition. A high PHA production up to 28.4% of cell dry weight (CDW) was reached at lower substrate concentration, 20 °C, neutral pH-value and a 24 h cycle time. A final step a potential analysis, based on the results and detailed data from German waste water treatment plants, showed that the theoretically possible production of biopolymers in Germany amounts to more than 19% of the 2016 worldwide biopolymer production. In addition, a profound estimation regarding the EU showed that in theory about 120% of the worldwide biopolymer production (in 2016) could be produced on European waste water treatment plants. PMID:28952533

  15. Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

    1994-01-01

    Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface

  16. Determining the potential productivity of food crops in controlled environments

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bugbee, Bruce

    1992-01-01

    The quest to determine the maximum potential productivity of food crops is greatly benefitted by crop growth models. Many models have been developed to analyze and predict crop growth in the field, but it is difficult to predict biological responses to stress conditions. Crop growth models for the optimal environments of a Controlled Environment Life Support System (CELSS) can be highly predictive. This paper discusses the application of a crop growth model to CELSS; the model is used to evaluate factors limiting growth. The model separately evaluates the following four physiological processes: absorption of PPF by photosynthetic tissue, carbon fixation (photosynthesis), carbon use (respiration), and carbon partitioning (harvest index). These constituent processes determine potentially achievable productivity. An analysis of each process suggests that low harvest index is the factor most limiting to yield. PPF absorption by plant canopies and respiration efficiency are also of major importance. Research concerning productivity in a CELSS should emphasize: (1) the development of gas exchange techniques to continuously monitor plant growth rates and (2) environmental techniques to reduce plant height in communities.

  17. Measures for Assessing Subjective Effects of Potential Reduced Exposure Products

    PubMed Central

    Hanson, Karen; O’Connor, Richard; Hatsukami, Dorothy

    2009-01-01

    Potential reduced exposure products (PREPs) may reduce toxicant exposure and thereby may possibly reduce health risks associated with conventional tobacco use. However, lessened health risk to the individual or harm to the population through use of PREPs is unknown. Research is being conducted to evaluate the possible health effects associated with PREP use. As part of this evaluation, it is critical to provide sound measures of subjective responses to PREPs to determine the use and the abuse potential of a product, that is the likelihood that this product will lead to addiction. The goal of this paper is to conduct a systematic review of scales that have been used to measure the subjective responses to PREPs and examine their characteristics. In this paper, scales are identified and the items on the scales are described. Scales are also examined to determine whether they are sensitive in testing PREPs. Furthermore, scales to assess PREPs are recommended to investigators. Where no scales exist, items that may be critical for the development and validation of new scales are identified. PMID:19959674

  18. Estimating ocean production from satellite-derived chlorophyll - Insights from the EASTROPAC data set

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eppley, R. W.; Stewart, E.; Abbott, M. R.; Owen, R. W.

    1985-01-01

    The EASTROPAC expedition took place in 1967-68 in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Primary production was related to near-surface chlorophyll in these data. Much of the variability in the relation was due to the light-history of the phytoplankton and its photoadaptive state. This was due to changes in the depth of mixing of the surface waters more than changes in insolation. Accurate estimates of production from satellite chlorophyll measurements may require knowledge of the temporal and spatial variation in mixing of this region.

  19. Estimation of potential bridge scour at bridges on state routes in South Dakota, 2003-07

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, Ryan F.; Fosness, Ryan L.

    2008-01-01

    Flowing water can erode (scour) soils and cause structural failure of a bridge by exposing or undermining bridge foundations (abutments and piers). A rapid scour-estimation technique, known as the level-1.5 method and developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was used to evaluate potential scour at bridges in South Dakota in a study conducted in cooperation with the South Dakota Department of Transportation. This method was used during 2003-07 to estimate scour for the 100-year and 500-year floods at 734 selected bridges managed by the South Dakota Department of Transportation on State routes in South Dakota. Scour depths and other parameters estimated from the level-1.5 analyses are presented in tabular form. Estimates of potential contraction scour at the 734 bridges ranged from 0 to 33.9 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 35.8 feet for the 500-year flood. Abutment scour ranged from 0 to 36.9 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 45.9 feet for the 500-year flood. Pier scour ranged from 0 to 30.8 feet for the 100-year flood and from 0 to 30.7 feet for the 500-year flood. The scour depths estimated by using the level-1.5 method can be used by the South Dakota Department of Transportation and others to identify bridges that may be susceptible to scour. Scour at 19 selected bridges also was estimated by using the level-2 method. Estimates of contraction, abutment, and pier scour calculated by using the level-1.5 and level-2 methods are presented in tabular and graphical formats. Compared to level-2 scour estimates, the level-1.5 method generally overestimated scour as designed, or in a few cases slightly underestimated scour. Results of the level-2 analyses were used to develop regression equations for change in head and average velocity through the bridge opening. These regression equations derived from South Dakota data are compared to similar regression equations derived from Montana and Colorado data. Future level-1.5 scour investigations in South

  20. Statistical estimation of the potential possibilities for panoramic hydro-optic laser sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shamanaev, Vitalii S.; Lisenko, Andrey A.

    2017-11-01

    For statistical estimation of the potential possibilities of the lidar with matrix photodetector placed on board an aircraft, the nonstationary equation of laser sensing of a complex multicomponent sea water medium is solved by the Monte Carlo method. The lidar return power is estimated for various optical sea water characteristics in the presence of solar background radiation. For clear waters and brightness of external background illumination of 50, 1, and 10-3 W/(m2ṡμmṡsr), the signal/noise ratio (SNR) exceeds 10 to water depths h = 45-50 m. For coastal waters, SNR >= 10 for h = 17-24 m, whereas for turbid sea waters, SNR >= 10 only to depths h = 8-12 m. Results of statistical simulation have shown that the lidar system with optimal parameters can be used for water sensing to depths of 50 m.

  1. High-global warming potential F-gas emissions in California: comparison of ambient-based versus inventory-based emission estimates, and implications of refined estimates.

    PubMed

    Gallagher, Glenn; Zhan, Tao; Hsu, Ying-Kuang; Gupta, Pamela; Pederson, James; Croes, Bart; Blake, Donald R; Barletta, Barbara; Meinardi, Simone; Ashford, Paul; Vetter, Arnie; Saba, Sabine; Slim, Rayan; Palandre, Lionel; Clodic, Denis; Mathis, Pamela; Wagner, Mark; Forgie, Julia; Dwyer, Harry; Wolf, Katy

    2014-01-21

    To provide information for greenhouse gas reduction policies, the California Air Resources Board (CARB) inventories annual emissions of high-global-warming potential (GWP) fluorinated gases, the fastest growing sector of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions globally. Baseline 2008 F-gas emissions estimates for selected chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-12), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFC-22), and hydrofluorocarbons (HFC-134a) made with an inventory-based methodology were compared to emissions estimates made by ambient-based measurements. Significant discrepancies were found, with the inventory-based emissions methodology resulting in a systematic 42% under-estimation of CFC-12 emissions from older refrigeration equipment and older vehicles, and a systematic 114% overestimation of emissions for HFC-134a, a refrigerant substitute for phased-out CFCs. Initial, inventory-based estimates for all F-gas emissions had assumed that equipment is no longer in service once it reaches its average lifetime of use. Revised emission estimates using improved models for equipment age at end-of-life, inventories, and leak rates specific to California resulted in F-gas emissions estimates in closer agreement to ambient-based measurements. The discrepancies between inventory-based estimates and ambient-based measurements were reduced from -42% to -6% for CFC-12, and from +114% to +9% for HFC-134a.

  2. Estimating Urban Gross Primary Productivity at High Spatial Resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Miller, David Lauchlin

    Gross primary productivity (GPP) is an important metric of ecosystem function and is the primary way carbon is transferred from the atmosphere to the land surface. Remote sensing techniques are commonly used to estimate regional and global GPP for carbon budgets. However, urban areas are typically excluded from such estimates due to a lack of parameters specific to urban vegetation and the modeling challenges that arise in mapping GPP across heterogeneous urban land cover. In this study, we estimated typical midsummer GPP within and among vegetation and land use types in the Minneapolis-Saint Paul, Minnesota metropolitan region by deriving light use efficiency parameters specific to urban vegetation types using in situ flux observations and WorldView-2 high spatial resolution satellite imagery. We produced a land cover classification using the satellite imagery, canopy height data from airborne lidar, and leaf-off color-infrared aerial orthophotos, and used regional GIS layers to mask certain land cover/land use types. The classification for built-up and vegetated urban land cover classes distinguished deciduous trees, evergreen trees, turf grass, and golf grass from impervious and soil surfaces, with an overall classification accuracy of 80% (kappa = 0.73). The full study area had 52.1% vegetation cover. The light use efficiency for each vegetation class, with the exception of golf grass, tended to be low compared to natural vegetation light use efficiencies in the literature. The mapped GPP estimates were within 11% of estimates from independent tall tower eddy covariance measurements. The order of the mapped vegetation classes for the full study area in terms of mean GPP from lowest to highest was: deciduous trees (2.52 gC m -2 d-1), evergreen trees (5.81 gC m-2 d-1), turf grass (6.05 gC m-2 d-1), and golf grass (11.77 gC m-2 d-1). Turf grass GPP had a larger coefficient of variation (0.18) than the other vegetation classes (˜0.10). Mean land use GPP for the

  3. Estimating bacterial production in marine waters from the simultaneous incorporation of thymidine and leucine.

    PubMed

    Chin-Leo, G; Kirchman, D L

    1988-08-01

    We examined the simultaneous incorporation of [H]thymidine and [C]leucine to obtain two independent indices of bacterial production (DNA and protein syntheses) in a single incubation. Incorporation rates of leucine estimated by the dual-label method were generally higher than those obtained by the single-label method, but the differences were small (dual/single = 1.1 +/- 0.2 [mean +/- standard deviation]) and were probably due to the presence of labeled leucyl-tRNA in the cold trichloroacetic acid-insoluble fraction. There were no significant differences in thymidine incorporation between dual- and single-label incubations (dual/ single = 1.03 +/- 0.13). Addition of the two substrates in relatively large amounts (25 nM) did not apparently increase bacterial activity during short incubations (<5 h). With the dual-label method we found that thymidine and leucine incorporation rates covaried over depth profiles of the Chesapeake Bay. Estimates of bacterial production based on thymidine and leucine differed by less than 25%. Although the need for appropriate conversion factors has not been eliminated, the dual-label approach can be used to examine the variation in bacterial production while ensuring that the observed variation in incorporation rates is due to real changes in bacterial production rather than changes in conversion factors or introduction of other artifacts.

  4. Potential mineral resources, Payette National Forest, Idaho: description and probabilistic estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bookstrom, Arthur A.; Johnson, Bruce R.; Cookro, Theresa M.; Lund, Karen; Watts, Kenneth C.; King, Harley D.; Kleinkopf, Merlin D.; Pitkin, James A.; Sanchez, J. David; Causey, J. Douglas

    1998-01-01

    The Payette National Forest (PNF), in west-central Idaho, is geologically diverse and contains a wide variety of mineral resources. Mineral deposit types are grouped into locatable, leasable, and salable categories. The PNF has substantial past production and identified resources of locatable commodities, including gold, silver, copper, zinc, tungsten, antimony, mercury, and opal. Minor lignitic coal is the only leasable mineral resource known to be present in the PNF. Resources of salable commodities in the PNF include sand-and-gravel, basalt for crushed-rock aggregate, and minor gypsum. Locatable mineral resources are geographically divided between eastern and western parts of the PNF. The western PNF lies west of the Riggins-to-Cascade highway (US 95 - Idaho 55), and the eastern PNF is east of that highway. The western and eastern parts of the PNF are geologically distinctive and have different types of locatable mineral deposits, so their locatable mineral resources are described separately. Within the western and eastern parts of the PNF, locatable deposit types generally are described in order of decreasing geologic age. An expert panel delineated tracts considered geologically permissive and (or) favorable for the occurrence of undiscovered mineral deposits of types that are known to be present within or near the PNF. The panel also estimated probabilities for undiscovered deposits, and used numerical simulation, based on tonnage-grade distribution models, to derive estimates of in-situ metals contained. These estimates are summarized in terms of mean and median measures of central tendency. Most grade and tonnage distributions appear to be log-normal, with the median lower than the mean. Inasmuch as the mean is influenced by the largest deposits in the model tonnage-grade distribution, the median provides a lower measure of central tendency and a more conservative estimation of undiscovered resources.

  5. Estimating Gross Primary Production in Cropland with High Spatial and Temporal Scale Remote Sensing Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lin, S.; Li, J.; Liu, Q.

    2018-04-01

    Satellite remote sensing data provide spatially continuous and temporally repetitive observations of land surfaces, and they have become increasingly important for monitoring large region of vegetation photosynthetic dynamic. But remote sensing data have their limitation on spatial and temporal scale, for example, higher spatial resolution data as Landsat data have 30-m spatial resolution but 16 days revisit period, while high temporal scale data such as geostationary data have 30-minute imaging period, which has lower spatial resolution (> 1 km). The objective of this study is to investigate whether combining high spatial and temporal resolution remote sensing data can improve the gross primary production (GPP) estimation accuracy in cropland. For this analysis we used three years (from 2010 to 2012) Landsat based NDVI data, MOD13 vegetation index product and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) geostationary data as input parameters to estimate GPP in a small region cropland of Nebraska, US. Then we validated the remote sensing based GPP with the in-situ measurement carbon flux data. Results showed that: 1) the overall correlation between GOES visible band and in-situ measurement photosynthesis active radiation (PAR) is about 50 % (R2 = 0.52) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA-Interim reanalysis data can explain 64 % of PAR variance (R2 = 0.64); 2) estimating GPP with Landsat 30-m spatial resolution data and ERA daily meteorology data has the highest accuracy(R2 = 0.85, RMSE < 3 gC/m2/day), which has better performance than using MODIS 1-km NDVI/EVI product import; 3) using daily meteorology data as input for GPP estimation in high spatial resolution data would have higher relevance than 8-day and 16-day input. Generally speaking, using the high spatial resolution and high frequency satellite based remote sensing data can improve GPP estimation accuracy in cropland.

  6. Methyl-coenzyme M reductase A as an indicator to estimate methane production from dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Aguinaga Casañas, M A; Rangkasenee, N; Krattenmacher, N; Thaller, G; Metges, C C; Kuhla, B

    2015-06-01

    The evaluation of greenhouse gas mitigation strategies requires the quantitative assessment of individual methane production. Because methane measurement in respiration chambers is highly accurate, but also comprises various disadvantages such as limited capacity and high costs, the establishment of an indicator for estimating methane production of individual ruminants would provide an alternative to direct methane measurement. Methyl-coenzyme M reductase is involved in methanogenesis and the subunit α of methyl-coenzyme M reductase is encoded by the mcrA gene of rumen archaea. We therefore examined the relationship between methane emissions of Holstein dairy cows measured in respiration chambers with 2 different diets (high- and medium-concentrate diet) and the mcrA DNA and mcrA cDNA abundance determined from corresponding rumen fluid samples. Whole-body methane production per kilogram of dry matter intake and mcrA DNA normalized to the abundance of the rrs gene coding for 16S rRNA correlated significantly when using qmcrA primers. Use of qmcrA primers also revealed linear correlation between mcrA DNA copy number and methane yield. Regression analyses based on normalized mcrA cDNA abundances revealed no significant linear correlation with methane production per kilogram of dry matter intake. Furthermore, the correlations between normalized mcrA DNA abundance and the rumen fluid concentration of acetic and isobutyric acid were positive, whereas the correlations with propionic and lactic acid were negative. These data suggest that the mcrA DNA approach based on qmcrA primers could potentially be a molecular proxy for methane yield after further refinement. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Potential reduced exposure products (PREPs) in industry trial testimony.

    PubMed

    Wayne, Geoffrey Ferris

    2006-12-01

    To identify patterns in trial testimony that may reflect on the intentions or expectations of tobacco manufacturers with regard to the introduction of potential reduced exposure products (PREPs). Research was conducted using the Deposition and Trial Testimony Archive (DATTA) collection of trial testimony and depositions housed online at Tobacco Documents Online (www.tobaccodocuments.org). Relevant testimony was identified through full-text searches of terms indicating PREPs or harm reduction strategies. The role and function of PREPs in testimony were classified according to common and contrasting themes. These were analysed in the context of broader trial arguments and against changes in time period and the market. Analysis of testimony suggests that the failure of PREPs in the market tempered initial industry enthusiasm and made protection of the conventional cigarette market its major priority. The "breakthrough" character of PREPs has been de-emphasised, with trial arguments instead positioning PREPs as simply another choice for consumers. This framework legitimises the sale of conventional brands, and shifts the responsibility for adoption of safer products from the manufacturer to the consumer. Likewise, testimony has abandoned earlier dramatic health claims made with regard to PREPs, which had undermined industry arguments regarding efforts to reduce harm in conventional products. More recent testimony advocates the broad acceptance of independent guidelines that would validate use of health claims and enable the industry to market PREPs to consumers. Trial testimony reflects the changing role and positioning of PREPs by the tobacco industry. The findings are of particular importance with regard to future evaluation and potential regulation of reduced harm products.

  8. Coral reef ecosystem decline: changing dynamics of coral reef carbonate production and implications for reef growth potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perry, Chris

    2016-04-01

    Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition and are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. It has been suggested that one effect of these ecological changes will be to lower reef carbonate production rates, which will impair reef growth potential and, ultimately, may lead to states of net reef erosion. However, quantitative data to support such assertions are limited, and linkages between the ecological state of coral reefs and their past and present geomorphic performance (in other words their growth potential) are poorly resolved. Using recently collected data from sites in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, and which have undergone very different post-disturbance ecological trajectories over the last ~20-30 years, the differential impacts of disturbance on contemporary carbonate production regimes and on reef growth potential can be explored. In the Caribbean, a region which has been severely impacted ecological over the last 30+ years, our datasets show that average carbonate production rates on reefs are now less than 50% of pre-disturbance rates, and that calculated accretion rates (mm yr-1) are an about order of magnitude lower within shallow water habitats compared to Holocene averages. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now propagating through the system to impact on the geomorphic performance of Caribbean reefs and will impair their future growth potential. In contrast, the carbonate budgets of most reefs across the Chagos archipelago (central Indian Ocean), which is geographically remote and largely isolated from direct human disturbances, have recovered rapidly from major past disturbances (specifically the 1998 coral bleaching event). The carbonate budgets on these remote reefs now average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, which were most severely impacted by the 1998 bleaching event, average +8.4 G

  9. Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Loar, J.M.

    2001-06-11

    The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are notmore » available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies

  10. Validation and Recommendation of Methods to Measure Biogas Production Potential of Animal Manure

    PubMed Central

    Pham, C. H.; Triolo, J. M.; Cu, T. T. T.; Pedersen, L.; Sommer, S. G.

    2013-01-01

    In developing countries, biogas energy production is seen as a technology that can provide clean energy in poor regions and reduce pollution caused by animal manure. Laboratories in these countries have little access to advanced gas measuring equipment, which may limit research aimed at improving local adapted biogas production. They may also be unable to produce valid estimates of an international standard that can be used for articles published in international peer-reviewed science journals. This study tested and validated methods for measuring total biogas and methane (CH4) production using batch fermentation and for characterizing the biomass. The biochemical methane potential (BMP) (CH4 NL kg−1 VS) of pig manure, cow manure and cellulose determined with the Moller and VDI methods was not significantly different in this test (p>0.05). The biodegradability using a ratio of BMP and theoretical BMP (TBMP) was slightly higher using the Hansen method, but differences were not significant. Degradation rate assessed by methane formation rate showed wide variation within the batch method tested. The first-order kinetics constant k for the cumulative methane production curve was highest when two animal manures were fermented using the VDI 4630 method, indicating that this method was able to reach steady conditions in a shorter time, reducing fermentation duration. In precision tests, the repeatability of the relative standard deviation (RSDr) for all batch methods was very low (4.8 to 8.1%), while the reproducibility of the relative standard deviation (RSDR) varied widely, from 7.3 to 19.8%. In determination of biomethane concentration, the values obtained using the liquid replacement method (LRM) were comparable to those obtained using gas chromatography (GC). This indicates that the LRM method could be used to determine biomethane concentration in biogas in laboratories with limited access to GC. PMID:25049861

  11. US Low-Temperature EGS Resource Potential Estimate

    DOE Data Explorer

    Katherine Young

    2016-06-30

    Shapefile of shallow, low-temperature EGS resources for the United States, and accompanying paper (submitted to GRC 2016) describing the methodology and analysis. These data are part of a very rough estimate created for use in the U.S. Department of Energy Geothermal Technology Office's Vision Study. They are not a robust estimate of low-temperature EGS resources in the U.S, and should be used accordingly.

  12. Estimating the Societal Benefits of THA After Accounting for Work Status and Productivity: A Markov Model Approach.

    PubMed

    Koenig, Lane; Zhang, Qian; Austin, Matthew S; Demiralp, Berna; Fehring, Thomas K; Feng, Chaoling; Mather, Richard C; Nguyen, Jennifer T; Saavoss, Asha; Springer, Bryan D; Yates, Adolph J

    2016-12-01

    Demand for total hip arthroplasty (THA) is high and expected to continue to grow during the next decade. Although much of this growth includes working-aged patients, cost-effectiveness studies on THA have not fully incorporated the productivity effects from surgery. We asked: (1) What is the expected effect of THA on patients' employment and earnings? (2) How does accounting for these effects influence the cost-effectiveness of THA relative to nonsurgical treatment? Taking a societal perspective, we used a Markov model to assess the overall cost-effectiveness of THA compared with nonsurgical treatment. We estimated direct medical costs using Medicare claims data and indirect costs (employment status and worker earnings) using regression models and nonparametric simulations. For direct costs, we estimated average spending 1 year before and after surgery. Spending estimates included physician and related services, hospital inpatient and outpatient care, and postacute care. For indirect costs, we estimated the relationship between functional status and productivity, using data from the National Health Interview Survey and regression analysis. Using regression coefficients and patient survey data, we ran a nonparametric simulation to estimate productivity (probability of working multiplied by earnings if working minus the value of missed work days) before and after THA. We used the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry to obtain revision rates because it contained osteoarthritis-specific THA revision rates by age and gender, which were unavailable in other registry reports. Other model assumptions were extracted from a previously published cost-effectiveness analysis that included a comprehensive literature review. We incorporated all parameter estimates into Markov models to assess THA effects on quality-adjusted life years and lifetime costs. We conducted threshold and sensitivity analyses on direct costs, indirect costs, and revision

  13. Use of short-term breath measures to estimate daily methane production by cattle.

    PubMed

    Velazco, J I; Mayer, D G; Zimmerman, S; Hegarty, R S

    2016-01-01

    Methods to measure enteric methane (CH4) emissions from individual ruminants in their production environment are required to validate emission inventories and verify mitigation claims. Estimates of daily methane production (DMP) based on consolidated short-term emission measurements are developing, but method verification is required. Two cattle experiments were undertaken to test the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate did not differ from DMP measured in respiration chambers (RC). Short-term emission rates were obtained from a GreenFeed Emissions Monitoring (GEM) unit, which measured emission rate while cattle consumed a dispensed supplement. In experiment 1 (Expt. 1), four non-lactating cattle (LW=518 kg) were adapted for 18 days then measured for six consecutive periods. Each period consisted of 2 days of ad libitum intake and GEM emission measurement followed by 1 day in the RC. A prototype GEM unit releasing water as an attractant (GEM water) was also evaluated in Expt. 1. Experiment 2 (Expt. 2) was a larger study based on similar design with 10 cattle (LW=365 kg), adapted for 21 days and GEM measurement was extended to 3 days in each of the six periods. In Expt. 1, there was no difference in DMP estimated by the GEM unit relative to the RC (209.7 v. 215.1 g CH(4)/day) and no difference between these methods in methane yield (MY, 22.7 v. 23.7 g CH(4)/kg of dry matter intake, DMI). In Expt. 2, the correlation between GEM and RC measures of DMP and MY were assessed using 95% confidence intervals, with no difference in DMP or MY between methods and high correlations between GEM and RC measures for DMP (r=0.85; 215 v. 198 g CH(4)/day SEM=3.0) and for MY (r=0.60; 23.8 v. 22.1 g CH(4)/kg DMI SEM=0.42). When data from both experiments was combined neither DMP nor MY differed between GEM- and RC-based measures (P>0.05). GEM water-based estimates of DMP and MY were lower than RC and GEM (P<0

  14. Random Forests (RFs) for Estimation, Uncertainty Prediction and Interpretation of Monthly Solar Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assouline, Dan; Mohajeri, Nahid; Scartezzini, Jean-Louis

    2017-04-01

    Solar energy is clean, widely available, and arguably the most promising renewable energy resource. Taking full advantage of solar power, however, requires a deep understanding of its patterns and dependencies in space and time. The recent advances in Machine Learning brought powerful algorithms to estimate the spatio-temporal variations of solar irradiance (the power per unit area received from the Sun, W/m2), using local weather and terrain information. Such algorithms include Deep Learning (e.g. Artificial Neural Networks), or kernel methods (e.g. Support Vector Machines). However, most of these methods have some disadvantages, as they: (i) are complex to tune, (ii) are mainly used as a black box and offering no interpretation on the variables contributions, (iii) often do not provide uncertainty predictions (Assouline et al., 2016). To provide a reasonable solar mapping with good accuracy, these gaps would ideally need to be filled. We present here simple steps using one ensemble learning algorithm namely, Random Forests (Breiman, 2001) to (i) estimate monthly solar potential with good accuracy, (ii) provide information on the contribution of each feature in the estimation, and (iii) offer prediction intervals for each point estimate. We have selected Switzerland as an example. Using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) along with monthly solar irradiance time series and weather data, we build monthly solar maps for Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), and Extraterrestrial Irradiance (EI). The weather data include monthly values for temperature, precipitation, sunshine duration, and cloud cover. In order to explain the impact of each feature on the solar irradiance of each point estimate, we extend the contribution method (Kuz'min et al., 2011) to a regression setting. Contribution maps for all features can then be computed for each solar map. This provides precious information on the spatial variation of the features impact all

  15. Estimation of potential scour at bridges on local government roads in South Dakota, 2009-12

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Thompson, Ryan F.; Wattier, Chelsea M.; Liggett, Richard R.; Truax, Ryan A.

    2014-01-01

    In 2009, the U.S. Geological Survey and South Dakota Department of Transportation (SDDOT) began a study to estimate potential scour at selected bridges on local government (county, township, and municipal) roads in South Dakota. A rapid scour-estimation method (level-1.5) and a more detailed method (level-2) were used to develop estimates of contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Data from 41 level-2 analyses completed for this study were combined with data from level-2 analyses completed in previous studies to develop new South Dakota-specific regression equations: four regional equations for main-channel velocity at the bridge contraction to account for the widely varying stream conditions within South Dakota, and one equation for head change. Velocity data from streamgages also were used in the regression for average velocity through the bridge contraction. Using these new regression equations, scour analyses were completed using the level-1.5 method on 361 bridges on local government roads. Typically, level-1.5 analyses are completed at flows estimated to have annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent (100-year flood) and 0.2 percent (500-year flood); however, at some sites the bridge would not pass these flows. A level-1.5 analysis was then completed at the flow expected to produce the maximum scour. Data presented for level-1.5 scour analyses at the 361 bridges include contraction, abutment, and pier scour. Estimates of potential contraction scour ranged from 0 to 32.5 feet for the various flows evaluated. Estimated potential abutment scour ranged from 0 to 40.9 feet for left abutments, and from 0 to 37.7 feet for right abutments. Pier scour values ranged from 2.7 to 31.6 feet. The scour depth estimates provided in this report can be used by the SDDOT to compare with foundation depths at each bridge to determine if abutments or piers are at risk of being undermined by scour at the flows evaluated. Replicate analyses were completed at 24 of the 361 bridges

  16. Application of Vegetation Indices to Estimate Acorn Production at Iberian Peninsula

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Escribano, Juan A.; Díaz-Ambrona, Carlos G. H.; Recuero, Laura; Huesca, Margarita; Cicuendez, Victor; Palacios, Alicia; Tarquis, Ana M.

    2014-05-01

    The Iberian pig valued natural resources of the pasture when fattened in mountain. The variability of acorn production is not contained in any line of Spanish agricultural insurance. However, the production of arable pasture is covered by line insurance number 133 for loss of pasture compensation. This scenario is only contemplated for breeding cows and brave bulls, sheep, goats and horses, although pigs are not included. This insurance is established by monitoring ten-day composites Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) measured by satellite over treeless pastures, using MODIS TERRA satellite. The aim of this work is to check if we can use a satellite vegetation index to estimate the production of acorns. In order to do so, two Spanish grassland locations have been analyzed: regions of Olivenza (Jerez-Oliva) and Merida (Badajoz). The acorns production was evaluated through 2002-2005 gauging conducted by the Grupo Habitat de la Orden (Badajoz). Medium resolution (500x500 m2) MODIS images were used during the same time period to estimate the ten-day composites NDVI at these locations. Finally, meteorological data was obtained from SIAR and MAGRAMA network stations, calculating the ten-day averaged temperature and ten day accumulated precipitation. Considering two accumulated factors, NDVI and temperature, three phenological stages were well defined being the second one which pointed differences among campaigns. Then, accumulated precipitation versus accumulated NDVI was plot for this second phenological stage obtaining maximum differences at 300 mm of cumulative rainfall. Analyzing acorn production with accumulated NDVI in that moment a production function was obtained with a correlation coefficient of 0.71. These results will be discussed in detail. References J.A. Escribano, C.G.H. Diaz-Ambrona, L. Recuero, M. Huesca, V. Cicuendez, A. Palacios-Orueta y A.M. Tarquis. Aplicacion de Indices de Vegetacion para evaluar la falta de produccion de pastos y

  17. Production of a bioemulsifier with potential application in the food industry.

    PubMed

    Campos, Jenyffer M; Stamford, Tânia L M; Sarubbo, Leonie A

    2014-03-01

    Biosurfactants are of considerable interest due to their biodegradability, low degree of toxicity, and diverse applications. However, the high production costs involved in the acquisition of biosurfactants underscore the need for optimization of the production process to enable viable application on an industrial scale. The aims of the present study were to select a species of Candida that produces a biosurfactant with the greatest emulsifying potential and to investigate the influence of components of the production medium and cultivation conditions. Candida utilis achieved the lowest surface tension (35.53 mN/m), best emulsification index (73%), and highest yield (12.52 g/l) in a medium containing waste canola frying oil as the carbon source and ammonium nitrate as the nitrogen source. The best combination of medium components and cultivation conditions was 6% (w/v) glucose, 6% (w/v) waste canola frying oil, 0.2% (w/v) ammonium nitrate, 0.3% (w/v) yeast extract, 150 rpm, 1% inoculum (w/v), and 88 h of fermentation. The greatest biosurfactant production and the lowest surface tension were achieved in the first 24 h of production, and the maximum biomass production was recorded at 72 h. The biosurfactant produced from C. utilis under the conditions investigated in the present study has a potential to be a bioemulsifier for application in the food industry.

  18. Frozen blood products: clinically effective and potentially ideal for remote Australia.

    PubMed

    Holley, A; Marks, D C; Johnson, L; Reade, M C; Badloe, J F; Noorman, F

    2013-01-01

    The development of effective cryopreservation techniques for both red blood cells and platelets, which maintain ex vivo biological activity, in combination with frozen plasma, provides for a unique blood banking strategy. This technology greatly enhances the storage life of these products. The rationale and potential advantages of using cryopreservation techniques for the provision of blood products to remote and military environments have been effectively demonstrated in several conflicts over the last decade. Current haemostatic resuscitation doctrine for the exsanguinating patient supports the use of red blood cells, platelets and frozen plasma early in the resuscitation. We believe an integrated fresh-frozen blood bank inventory could facilitate provision of blood products, not only in the military setting but also in regional Australia, by overcoming many logistic and geographical challenges. The processes involved in production and point of care thawing are sufficiently well developed and achievable to make this technology a viable option. The potential limitations of cryopreservation and subsequent product thawing need to be considered if such a strategy is to be developed. A substantial body of international experience using cryopreserved products in remote settings has already been accrued. This experience provides a template for the possible creation of an Australian integrated fresh-frozen blood bank inventory that could conceivably enhance the care of patients in both regional Australia and in the military setting.

  19. Estimating Drought Thresholds for Wheat in the Canadian Prairies Using Remote Sensing Products

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Munoz Hernandez, A.

    2013-12-01

    Droughts affect millions of people around the world, and depending on their duration and intensity, crops, cattle, and ecosystems can be decimated. One of the most susceptible economic sectors to drought is agriculture. Planners in the agricultural sector understand that drought conditions translate into lower yields, and subsequently reduced profits, but the relationship between drought thresholds and economic impacts remain unclear. This project focuses on estimating the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the Palliser Triangle to develop an understanding of the relationship between droughts and economic impacts on the production of wheat. The Palliser Triangle is a semi-arid region that experiences severe episodic droughts and is located primarily within two provinces: Alberta and Saskatchewan. The region supports a variety of crops including grains, oilseed, and forage crops, but predominantly wheat. The SPI is a probability index based entirely on precipitation deficits that identifies drought conditions with negative values and wet conditions using positive values. For this project, the SPI was estimated on a monthly basis for a period of thirty-four years utilizing precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation Systems (NDLAS) with a resolution of 1/8 degrees. Agricultural data was collected from Statistics Canada, Agriculture Division on a yearly basis for each agricultural district located within the study area. The SPI estimated values were compared against the yield reduction of wheat for a period of thirty years using statistical linear regression. The combination of highest r-squared and lowest standard error was selected. The use of remote sensing products in Canada is optimal since the in-situ measurement networks are very sparse. However, selecting the appropriate satellite products is challenging. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) has been successfully used to improve the understanding of precipitation within

  20. Robust estimation of event-related potentials via particle filter.

    PubMed

    Fukami, Tadanori; Watanabe, Jun; Ishikawa, Fumito

    2016-03-01

    In clinical examinations and brain-computer interface (BCI) research, a short electroencephalogram (EEG) measurement time is ideal. The use of event-related potentials (ERPs) relies on both estimation accuracy and processing time. We tested a particle filter that uses a large number of particles to construct a probability distribution. We constructed a simple model for recording EEG comprising three components: ERPs approximated via a trend model, background waves constructed via an autoregressive model, and noise. We evaluated the performance of the particle filter based on mean squared error (MSE), P300 peak amplitude, and latency. We then compared our filter with the Kalman filter and a conventional simple averaging method. To confirm the efficacy of the filter, we used it to estimate ERP elicited by a P300 BCI speller. A 400-particle filter produced the best MSE. We found that the merit of the filter increased when the original waveform already had a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) (i.e., the power ratio between ERP and background EEG). We calculated the amount of averaging necessary after applying a particle filter that produced a result equivalent to that associated with conventional averaging, and determined that the particle filter yielded a maximum 42.8% reduction in measurement time. The particle filter performed better than both the Kalman filter and conventional averaging for a low SNR in terms of both MSE and P300 peak amplitude and latency. For EEG data produced by the P300 speller, we were able to use our filter to obtain ERP waveforms that were stable compared with averages produced by a conventional averaging method, irrespective of the amount of averaging. We confirmed that particle filters are efficacious in reducing the measurement time required during simulations with a low SNR. Additionally, particle filters can perform robust ERP estimation for EEG data produced via a P300 speller. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Organoleptic characteristics and nutritive value estimation of baked food products from Manonjaya variety salacca flour

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sumarto; Aprianty, D.; Bachtiar, R. A.; Kristiana, L.

    2018-01-01

    Manonjaya salacca (snake fruit) is one of the original varieties of Indonesia which is currently declining due to the quality of taste less favoured than the snake fruit on the market. This variety in the future is feared to be lost, so it is necessary to revitalize the utilization of this snake fruit by diversifying processed products, one of them is baked food products from Manonjaya salacca flour. The purpose of this research was to know the acceptance level of baked food products from Manonjaya salacca flour organoleptically and the nutritional value estimation. This research method was observational with a descriptive explanation. Panellists in this study were consumers with a total of 61 people. Organoleptically, respondents tend to value cake, muffin, cookies, and flakes in every color, flavor, taste, and texture parameters. Nutritional value per 100 g of baked food products from Salacca flour (cake, muffin, cookies, flakes) were energy 287.5-479.0 kcal, water 0.8-3.8 g, protein 6.0-6.7 g, fat 0.8-31.0 g, carbohydrates 45.0-98.8 g, and fiber 1.1-4.6 g. Panellists were accepted the organoleptic characteristics and the estimated nutritional values on baked food products from Manonjaya variety salacca flour were varied.

  2. Contamination of organic nutrient sources with potentially toxic elements, antibiotics and pathogen microorganisms in relation to P fertilizer potential and treatment options for the production of sustainable fertilizers: A review.

    PubMed

    Bloem, E; Albihn, A; Elving, J; Hermann, L; Lehmann, L; Sarvi, M; Schaaf, T; Schick, J; Turtola, E; Ylivainio, K

    2017-12-31

    Organic nutrient sources such as farmyard manure, sewage sludge, their biogas digestates or other animal by-products can be valuable fertilizers delivering organic matter to the soil. Currently, especially phosphorus (P) is in the focus of research since it is an essential plant nutrient with finite resources, estimated to last only for some more decades. Efficient utilization of organic P sources in agriculture will help to preserve P resources and thereby has the potential to close nutrient cycles and prevent unwanted P-losses to the environment, one of the major causes for eutrophication of water bodies. Unfortunately, organic P sources usually contain also various detrimental substances, such as potentially toxic elements or organic contaminants like pharmaceuticals as well as pathogenic microorganisms. Additionally, the utilization of some of these substrates such as sewage sludge or animal by-products is legally limited in agriculture because of the potential risk to contaminate sites with potentially toxic elements and organic contaminants. Thus, to close nutrient cycles it is important to develop solutions for the responsible use of organic nutrient sources. The aim of this review is to give an overview of the contamination of the most important organic nutrient sources with potentially toxic elements, antibiotics (as one important organic contaminant) and pathogenic microorganisms. Changes in manure and sewage sludge management as well as the increasing trend to use such substrates in biogas plants will be discussed with respect to potential risks posed to soils and water bodies. Some examples for abatement options by which contamination can be reduced to produce P fertilizers with high amounts of plant available P forms are presented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Global a priori estimates for the inhomogeneous Landau equation with moderately soft potentials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, Stephen; Silvestre, Luis; Snelson, Stanley

    2018-05-01

    We establish a priori upper bounds for solutions to the spatially inhomogeneous Landau equation in the case of moderately soft potentials, with arbitrary initial data, under the assumption that mass, energy and entropy densities stay under control. Our pointwise estimates decay polynomially in the velocity variable. We also show that if the initial data satisfies a Gaussian upper bound, this bound is propagated for all positive times.

  4. Market projections of cellulose nanomaterial-enabled products- Part 1: Applications

    Treesearch

    Jo Anne Shatkin; Theodore H. Wegner; E.M. (Ted) Bilek; John Cowie

    2014-01-01

    Nanocellulose provides a new materials platform for the sustainable production of high-performance nano-enabled products in an array of applications. In this paper, potential applications for cellulose nanomaterials are identified as the first step toward estimating market volume. The overall study, presented in two parts, estimates market volume on the basis of...

  5. A new bio-optical model to estimate phytoplankton primary production: An application in the eastern Mediterranean Sea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefanì, Chiara; Bonamano, Simone; Melchiorri, Cristiano; Piermattei, Viviana; Fani, Fabiola; Lazzara, Luigi; Marcelli, Marco

    2015-04-01

    The estimation of phytoplankton primary production provides basic input for the quantification of carbon flux in the ocean because of the strong relationship between available photosynthetic energy at the ocean surface and energy storage by algal photosynthesis. We used a new version of PhytoVFP (Variable Fluorescence Phytoplankton Production) bio-optical model to calculate phytoplankton primary production (PP) in the euphotic zone. PhytoVFP is classified as a Wavelength- and Depth-resolved (WRDR) model and is based on the implementation of photosynthetic efficiency (Fv / Fmax), measured in-situ by the PrimProd probe. An innovation of the model is the reproduction of the daily photoacclimation process by varying photosynthetic parameters (Ek, alfa and Pbmax ) along the water column as a function of stratification. The PhytoVFP model is structured into three main modules: (1) "PAR estimation ";- (2) "Photo-acclimation of marine phytoplankton"; - (3) "Phytoplankton primary production estimation". The performance of the PhytoVFP model was evaluated using PAR and 14C primary production measures collected during the SAMCA3 and SAMCA4 oceanographic cruises. The comparison between the measured and calculated radiation showed a good correlation, both in the surface and along the water column (R2 = 0.8992 in the presence, and R2 = 0.8747 in the absence, of clouds) Sensitivity tests, carried out on phie (photosynthetic quantum yield) and beta (photoinhibition parameter), allowed us to identify the best model parametrization which minimized the MAE (Mean Absolute Error). The values assigned to these parameters allowed to have a good correlation between the measured and estimated primary production values (R² = 0.808923). The results of PhytoVFP model have been also compared with its older version and the Morel (1991) model showing that the MAE of the new version is lower than the other models. The PhytoVFP model was applied on Primprod data collected during MedGOOS12 cruise

  6. Study of the geothermal production potential in the Williston Basin, North Dakota

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Chu, Min H.

    1991-09-10

    Preliminary studies of geothermal production potential for the North Dakota portion of the Williston Basin have been carried out. Reservoir data such as formation depth, subsurface temperatures, and water quality were reviewed for geothermal brine production predictions. This study, in addition, provides important information about net pay thickness, porosity, volume of geothermal water available, and productivity index for future geothermal direct-use development. Preliminary results show that the Inyan Kara Formation of the Dakota Group is the most favorable geothermal resource in terms of water quality and productivity. The Madison, Duperow, and Red River Formations are deeper formations but because ofmore » their low permeability and great depth, the potential flow rates from these three formations are considerably less than those of the Inyan Kara Formation. Also, poor water quality and low porosity will make those formations less favorable for geothermal direct-use development.« less

  7. Indoor terpene emissions from cooking with herbs and pepper and their secondary organic aerosol production potential

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Felix; Farren, Naomi J.; Bozzetti, Carlo; Daellenbach, Kaspar R.; Kilic, Dogushan; Kumar, Nivedita K.; Pieber, Simone M.; Slowik, Jay G.; Tuthill, Rosemary N.; Hamilton, Jacqueline F.; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.; El Haddad, Imad

    2016-01-01

    Cooking is widely recognized as an important source of indoor and outdoor particle and volatile organic compound emissions with potential deleterious effects on human health. Nevertheless, cooking emissions remain poorly characterized. Here the effect of herbs and pepper on cooking emissions was investigated for the first time to the best of our knowledge using state of the art mass spectrometric analysis of particle and gas-phase composition. Further, the secondary organic aerosol production potential of the gas-phase emissions was determined by smog chamber aging experiments. The emissions of frying meat with herbs and pepper include large amounts of mono-, sesqui- and diterpenes as well as various terpenoids and p-cymene. The average total terpene emission rate from the use of herbs and pepper during cooking is estimated to be 46 ± 5 gg-1Herbs min-1. These compounds are highly reactive in the atmosphere and lead to significant amounts of secondary organic aerosol upon aging. In summary we demonstrate that cooking with condiments can constitute an important yet overlooked source of terpenes in indoor air. PMID:27830718

  8. Indoor terpene emissions from cooking with herbs and pepper and their secondary organic aerosol production potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Klein, Felix; Farren, Naomi J.; Bozzetti, Carlo; Daellenbach, Kaspar R.; Kilic, Dogushan; Kumar, Nivedita K.; Pieber, Simone M.; Slowik, Jay G.; Tuthill, Rosemary N.; Hamilton, Jacqueline F.; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S. H.; El Haddad, Imad

    2016-11-01

    Cooking is widely recognized as an important source of indoor and outdoor particle and volatile organic compound emissions with potential deleterious effects on human health. Nevertheless, cooking emissions remain poorly characterized. Here the effect of herbs and pepper on cooking emissions was investigated for the first time to the best of our knowledge using state of the art mass spectrometric analysis of particle and gas-phase composition. Further, the secondary organic aerosol production potential of the gas-phase emissions was determined by smog chamber aging experiments. The emissions of frying meat with herbs and pepper include large amounts of mono-, sesqui- and diterpenes as well as various terpenoids and p-cymene. The average total terpene emission rate from the use of herbs and pepper during cooking is estimated to be 46 ± 5 gg-1Herbs min-1. These compounds are highly reactive in the atmosphere and lead to significant amounts of secondary organic aerosol upon aging. In summary we demonstrate that cooking with condiments can constitute an important yet overlooked source of terpenes in indoor air.

  9. Indoor terpene emissions from cooking with herbs and pepper and their secondary organic aerosol production potential.

    PubMed

    Klein, Felix; Farren, Naomi J; Bozzetti, Carlo; Daellenbach, Kaspar R; Kilic, Dogushan; Kumar, Nivedita K; Pieber, Simone M; Slowik, Jay G; Tuthill, Rosemary N; Hamilton, Jacqueline F; Baltensperger, Urs; Prévôt, André S H; El Haddad, Imad

    2016-11-10

    Cooking is widely recognized as an important source of indoor and outdoor particle and volatile organic compound emissions with potential deleterious effects on human health. Nevertheless, cooking emissions remain poorly characterized. Here the effect of herbs and pepper on cooking emissions was investigated for the first time to the best of our knowledge using state of the art mass spectrometric analysis of particle and gas-phase composition. Further, the secondary organic aerosol production potential of the gas-phase emissions was determined by smog chamber aging experiments. The emissions of frying meat with herbs and pepper include large amounts of mono-, sesqui- and diterpenes as well as various terpenoids and p-cymene. The average total terpene emission rate from the use of herbs and pepper during cooking is estimated to be 46 ± 5 gg -1 Herbs min -1 . These compounds are highly reactive in the atmosphere and lead to significant amounts of secondary organic aerosol upon aging. In summary we demonstrate that cooking with condiments can constitute an important yet overlooked source of terpenes in indoor air.

  10. Leaching potential of silver from nanosilver-treated textile products.

    PubMed

    Limpiteeprakan, P; Babel, S

    2016-03-01

    The use of nanosilver as an antibacterial agent for various products has increased, especially so, in textiles. This study aims to investigate the potential of Ag to leach from commercial products which contain nano-Ag by using the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP) test in accordance with USEPA method 1311. Eight nano-Ag products were purchased from the market. Only those products that are likely to be disposed of in a landfill after end use were selected. Nano-Ag fabrics of different concentrations were also prepared at the laboratory scale, and the TCLP test was performed on them as well. The current study assumes that the new products were discarded without use. The Ag content was quantified by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) and ranged from 0.95 to 2.82 μg/g of the product in the commercial products and from 1.49 to 350 μg/g of the product in the lab-prepared fabrics. In the TCLP test results, Ag concentrations ranged from 4.3 to 64.9 μg/L in the commercial products and from 28.9 to 28,381 μg/L in the lab-prepared fabrics. The results also indicate that the amount of Ag released depends on the type of the fabrics. Additionally, the size of the nano-Ag released in percentage is different for each prepared fabric. This study can help in understanding the amount of Ag released during the disposal phase of a product in a landfill.

  11. Inversely Estimating the Vertical Profile of the Soil CO2 Production Rate in a Deciduous Broadleaf Forest Using a Particle Filtering Method

    PubMed Central

    Sakurai, Gen; Yonemura, Seiichiro; Kishimoto-Mo, Ayaka W.; Murayama, Shohei; Ohtsuka, Toshiyuki; Yokozawa, Masayuki

    2015-01-01

    Carbon dioxide (CO2) efflux from the soil surface, which is a major source of CO2 from terrestrial ecosystems, represents the total CO2 production at all soil depths. Although many studies have estimated the vertical profile of the CO2 production rate, one of the difficulties in estimating the vertical profile is measuring diffusion coefficients of CO2 at all soil depths in a nondestructive manner. In this study, we estimated the temporal variation in the vertical profile of the CO2 production rate using a data assimilation method, the particle filtering method, in which the diffusion coefficients of CO2 were simultaneously estimated. The CO2 concentrations at several soil depths and CO2 efflux from the soil surface (only during the snow-free period) were measured at two points in a broadleaf forest in Japan, and the data were assimilated into a simple model including a diffusion equation. We found that there were large variations in the pattern of the vertical profile of the CO2 production rate between experiment sites: the peak CO2 production rate was at soil depths around 10 cm during the snow-free period at one site, but the peak was at the soil surface at the other site. Using this method to estimate the CO2 production rate during snow-cover periods allowed us to estimate CO2 efflux during that period as well. We estimated that the CO2 efflux during the snow-cover period (about half the year) accounted for around 13% of the annual CO2 efflux at this site. Although the method proposed in this study does not ensure the validity of the estimated diffusion coefficients and CO2 production rates, the method enables us to more closely approach the “actual” values by decreasing the variance of the posterior distribution of the values. PMID:25793387

  12. The potential contribution of the natural products from Brazilian biodiversity to bioeconomy.

    PubMed

    Valli, Marilia; Russo, Helena M; Bolzani, Vanderlan S

    2018-01-01

    The development of our society has been based on the use of biodiversity, especially for medicines and nutrition. Brazil is the nation with the largest biodiversity in the world accounting for more than 15% of all living species. The devastation of biodiversity in Brazil is critical and may not only cause the loss of species and genes that encode enzymes involved in the complex metabolism of organisms, but also the loss of a rich chemical diversity, which is a potential source for bioeconomy based on natural products and new synthetic derivatives. Bioeconomy focus on the use of bio-based products, instead of fossil-based ones and could address some of the important challenges faced by society. Considering the chemical and biological diversity of Brazil, this review highlights the Brazilian natural products that were successfully used to develop new products and the value of secondary metabolites from Brazilian biodiversity with potential application for new products and technologies. Additionally, we would like to address the importance of new technologies and scientific programs to support preservation policies, bioeconomy and strategies for the sustainable use of biodiversity.

  13. Integrating landslide and liquefaction hazard and loss estimates with existing USGS real-time earthquake information products

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Allstadt, Kate E.; Thompson, Eric M.; Hearne, Mike; Nowicki Jessee, M. Anna; Zhu, J.; Wald, David J.; Tanyas, Hakan

    2017-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has made significant progress toward the rapid estimation of shaking and shakingrelated losses through their Did You Feel It? (DYFI), ShakeMap, ShakeCast, and PAGER products. However, quantitative estimates of the extent and severity of secondary hazards (e.g., landsliding, liquefaction) are not currently included in scenarios and real-time post-earthquake products despite their significant contributions to hazard and losses for many events worldwide. We are currently running parallel global statistical models for landslides and liquefaction developed with our collaborators in testing mode, but much work remains in order to operationalize these systems. We are expanding our efforts in this area by not only improving the existing statistical models, but also by (1) exploring more sophisticated, physics-based models where feasible; (2) incorporating uncertainties; and (3) identifying and undertaking research and product development to provide useful landslide and liquefaction estimates and their uncertainties. Although our existing models use standard predictor variables that are accessible globally or regionally, including peak ground motions, topographic slope, and distance to water bodies, we continue to explore readily available proxies for rock and soil strength as well as other susceptibility terms. This work is based on the foundation of an expanding, openly available, case-history database we are compiling along with historical ShakeMaps for each event. The expected outcome of our efforts is a robust set of real-time secondary hazards products that meet the needs of a wide variety of earthquake information users. We describe the available datasets and models, developments currently underway, and anticipated products

  14. Investigating the potential for subsurface primary production fueled by serpentinization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brazelton, W. J.; Nelson, B. Y.; Schrenk, M. O.

    2011-12-01

    Ultramafic rocks in the Earth's mantle represent a tremendous reservoir of carbon and reducing power. Tectonic uplift of these materials into the crust can result in serpentinization, a highly exothermic geochemical reaction that releases hydrogen gas (H2) and promotes the abiogenic synthesis of organic molecules. The extent and activity of microbial communities in serpentinite-hosted subsurface habitats is almost entirely unknown, but they clearly have great potential to host extensive sunlight-independent primary production fueled by H2 and abiotic carbon compounds. We have been testing this hypothesis at several sites of serpentinization around the globe utilizing a suite of techniques including metagenomics, 16S rRNA pyrotag sequencing, and stable isotope tracing experiments. All four of our study sites, which include deep-sea hydrothermal vents, terrestrial alkaline springs, and continental drill holes, are characteristically low in archaeal and bacterial genetic diversity. In carbonate chimneys of the Lost City hydrothermal field (Mid-Atlantic Ridge), for example, a single archaeal phylotype dominates the biofilm community. Stable isotope tracing experiments indicated that these archaeal biofilms are capable of both production and anaerobic oxidation of methane at 80C and pH 10. Both production and oxidation were stimulated by H2, suggesting a possible syntrophic relationship among cells within the biofilm. Preliminary results from similar stable isotope tracing experiments at terrestrial alkaline seeps at the Tablelands Ophiolite (Newfoundland), Ligurian springs (Italy), and McLaughlin Reserve (California) have indicated the potential for microbial activity fueled by H2 and acetate. Furthermore, recent metagenomic sequencing of fluids from the Tablelands and Ligurian springs have revealed genomic potential for chemolithotrophy powered by iron reduction with H2. In summary, these data support the potential for extensive microbial activity fueled by

  15. orbit-estimation: Fast orbital parameters estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackereth, J. Ted; Bovy, Jo

    2018-04-01

    orbit-estimation tests and evaluates the Stäckel approximation method for estimating orbit parameters in galactic potentials. It relies on the approximation of the Galactic potential as a Stäckel potential, in a prolate confocal coordinate system, under which the vertical and horizontal motions decouple. By solving the Hamilton Jacobi equations at the turning points of the horizontal and vertical motions, it is possible to determine the spatial boundary of the orbit, and hence calculate the desired orbit parameters.

  16. Regional economic activity and absenteeism: a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of employee productivity loss.

    PubMed

    Bankert, Brian; Coberley, Carter; Pope, James E; Wells, Aaron

    2015-02-01

    This paper presents a new approach to estimating the indirect costs of health-related absenteeism. Productivity losses related to employee absenteeism have negative business implications for employers and these losses effectively deprive the business of an expected level of employee labor. The approach herein quantifies absenteeism cost using an output per labor hour-based method and extends employer-level results to the region. This new approach was applied to the employed population of 3 health insurance carriers. The economic cost of absenteeism was estimated to be $6.8 million, $0.8 million, and $0.7 million on average for the 3 employers; regional losses were roughly twice the magnitude of employer-specific losses. The new approach suggests that costs related to absenteeism for high output per labor hour industries exceed similar estimates derived from application of the human capital approach. The materially higher costs under the new approach emphasize the importance of accurately estimating productivity losses.

  17. Assessing the potential of polyculture to accelerate algal biofuel production

    DOE PAGES

    Newby, Deborah T.; Mathews, Teresa J.; Pate, Ron C.; ...

    2016-10-24

    To date, the algal biofuel industry has focused on the cultivation of monocultures of highly productive algal strains, but scaling up production remains challenging. However, algal monocultures are difficult to maintain because they are easily contaminated by wild algal strains, grazers, and pathogens. In contrast, theory suggests that polycultures (multispecies assemblages) can promote both ecosystem stability and productivity. A greater understanding of species interactions and how communities change with time will need to be developed before polycultures can be successfully applied to large-scale algal production efforts. Here in this paper we review the agricultural and ecological literature to explore opportunitiesmore » for increased annual biomass production through the use of algal polycultures. We discuss case studies where algal polycultures have been successfully maintained for industries other than the biofuel industry, as well as the few studies that have compared biomass production of algal polycultures to that of monocultures. Assemblages that include species with complementary traits are of particular promise. These assemblages have the potential not only to increase crop productivity and stability, but they may also be capable of utilizing natural resources (e.g. light, nutrients, water) more efficiently via tighter niche packing. Therefore, algal polycultures show promise for enhancing biomass productivity, enabling sustainable production and reducing overall production costs.« less

  18. Assessing the potential of polyculture to accelerate algal biofuel production

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Newby, Deborah T.; Mathews, Teresa J.; Pate, Ron C.

    To date, the algal biofuel industry has focused on the cultivation of monocultures of highly productive algal strains, but scaling up production remains challenging. However, algal monocultures are difficult to maintain because they are easily contaminated by wild algal strains, grazers, and pathogens. In contrast, theory suggests that polycultures (multispecies assemblages) can promote both ecosystem stability and productivity. A greater understanding of species interactions and how communities change with time will need to be developed before polycultures can be successfully applied to large-scale algal production efforts. Here in this paper we review the agricultural and ecological literature to explore opportunitiesmore » for increased annual biomass production through the use of algal polycultures. We discuss case studies where algal polycultures have been successfully maintained for industries other than the biofuel industry, as well as the few studies that have compared biomass production of algal polycultures to that of monocultures. Assemblages that include species with complementary traits are of particular promise. These assemblages have the potential not only to increase crop productivity and stability, but they may also be capable of utilizing natural resources (e.g. light, nutrients, water) more efficiently via tighter niche packing. Therefore, algal polycultures show promise for enhancing biomass productivity, enabling sustainable production and reducing overall production costs.« less

  19. Using LANDSAT to provide potato production estimates to Columbia Basin farmers and processors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    The estimation of potato yields in the Columbia basin is described. The fundamental objective is to provide CROPIX with working models of potato production. A two-pronged approach was used to yield estimation: (1) using simulation models, and (2) using purely empirical models. The simulation modeling approach used satellite observations to determine certain key dates in the development of the crop for each field identified as potatoes. In particular, these include planting dates, emergence dates, and harvest dates. These critical dates are fed into simulation models of crop growth and development to derive yield forecasts. Purely empirical models were developed to relate yield to some spectrally derived measure of crop development. Two empirical approaches are presented: one relates tuber yield to estimates of cumulative intercepted solar radiation, the other relates tuber yield to the integral under GVI (Global Vegetation Index) curve.

  20. Estimation of zeta potential of electroosmotic flow in a microchannel using a reduced-order model.

    PubMed

    Park, H M; Hong, S M; Lee, J S

    2007-10-01

    A reduced-order model is derived for electroosmotic flow in a microchannel of nonuniform cross section using the Karhunen-Loève Galerkin (KLG) procedure. The resulting reduced-order model is shown to predict electroosmotic flows accurately with minimal consumption of computer time for a wide range of zeta potential zeta and dielectric constant epsilon. Using the reduced-order model, a practical method is devised to estimate zeta from the velocity measurements of the electroosmotic flow in the microchannel. The proposed method is found to estimate zeta with reasonable accuracy even with noisy velocity measurements.

  1. Estimating Oceanic Primary Production Using Vertical Irradiance and Chlorophyll Profiles from Ocean Gliders in the North Atlantic.

    PubMed

    Hemsley, Victoria S; Smyth, Timothy J; Martin, Adrian P; Frajka-Williams, Eleanor; Thompson, Andrew F; Damerell, Gillian; Painter, Stuart C

    2015-10-06

    An autonomous underwater vehicle (Seaglider) has been used to estimate marine primary production (PP) using a combination of irradiance and fluorescence vertical profiles. This method provides estimates for depth-resolved and temporally evolving PP on fine spatial scales in the absence of ship-based calibrations. We describe techniques to correct for known issues associated with long autonomous deployments such as sensor calibration drift and fluorescence quenching. Comparisons were made between the Seaglider, stable isotope ((13)C), and satellite estimates of PP. The Seaglider-based PP estimates were comparable to both satellite estimates and stable isotope measurements.

  2. Potential of water surface-floating microalgae for biodiesel production: Floating-biomass and lipid productivities.

    PubMed

    Muto, Masaki; Nojima, Daisuke; Yue, Liang; Kanehara, Hideyuki; Naruse, Hideaki; Ujiro, Asuka; Yoshino, Tomoko; Matsunaga, Tadashi; Tanaka, Tsuyoshi

    2017-03-01

    Microalgae have been accepted as a promising feedstock for biodiesel production owing to their capability of converting solar energy into lipids through photosynthesis. However, the high capital and operating costs, and high energy consumption, are hampering commercialization of microalgal biodiesel. In this study, the surface-floating microalga, strain AVFF007 (tentatively identified as Botryosphaerella sudetica), which naturally forms a biofilm on surfaces, was characterized for use in biodiesel production. The biofilm could be conveniently harvested from the surface of the water by adsorbing onto a polyethylene film. The lipid productivity of strain AVFF007 was 46.3 mg/L/day, allowing direct comparison to lipid productivities of other microalgal species. The moisture content of the surface-floating biomass was 86.0 ± 1.2%, which was much lower than that of the biomass harvested using centrifugation. These results reveal the potential of this surface-floating microalgal species as a biodiesel producer, employing a novel biomass harvesting and dewatering strategy. Copyright © 2016 The Society for Biotechnology, Japan. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Global Potential Net Prmary Production Predicted from Vegetation Class, Precipitation, and Temperature

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Net Primary Production (NPP), the difference between CO2 fixed by photosynthesis and CO2 lost to autotrophic respiration, is one of the most important components of the carbon cycle. Our goal was to develop a simple regression model to estimate global NPP using climate and land cover data. Approxima...

  4. Estimating Bacterial Production in Marine Waters from the Simultaneous Incorporation of Thymidine and Leucine

    PubMed Central

    Chin-Leo, Gerardo; Kirchman, David L.

    1988-01-01

    We examined the simultaneous incorporation of [3H]thymidine and [14C]leucine to obtain two independent indices of bacterial production (DNA and protein syntheses) in a single incubation. Incorporation rates of leucine estimated by the dual-label method were generally higher than those obtained by the single-label method, but the differences were small (dual/single = 1.1 ± 0.2 [mean ± standard deviation]) and were probably due to the presence of labeled leucyl-tRNA in the cold trichloroacetic acid-insoluble fraction. There were no significant differences in thymidine incorporation between dual- and single-label incubations (dual/ single = 1.03 ± 0.13). Addition of the two substrates in relatively large amounts (25 nM) did not apparently increase bacterial activity during short incubations (<5 h). With the dual-label method we found that thymidine and leucine incorporation rates covaried over depth profiles of the Chesapeake Bay. Estimates of bacterial production based on thymidine and leucine differed by less than 25%. Although the need for appropriate conversion factors has not been eliminated, the dual-label approach can be used to examine the variation in bacterial production while ensuring that the observed variation in incorporation rates is due to real changes in bacterial production rather than changes in conversion factors or introduction of other artifacts. PMID:16347706

  5. Estimating global nitrous oxide emissions by lichens and bryophytes with a process-based productivity model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porada, Philipp; Pöschl, Ulrich; Kleidon, Axel; Beer, Christian; Weber, Bettina

    2017-03-01

    Nitrous oxide is a strong greenhouse gas and atmospheric ozone-depleting agent which is largely emitted by soils. Recently, lichens and bryophytes have also been shown to release significant amounts of nitrous oxide. This finding relies on ecosystem-scale estimates of net primary productivity of lichens and bryophytes, which are converted to nitrous oxide emissions by empirical relationships between productivity and respiration, as well as between respiration and nitrous oxide release. Here we obtain an alternative estimate of nitrous oxide emissions which is based on a global process-based non-vascular vegetation model of lichens and bryophytes. The model quantifies photosynthesis and respiration of lichens and bryophytes directly as a function of environmental conditions, such as light and temperature. Nitrous oxide emissions are then derived from simulated respiration assuming a fixed relationship between the two fluxes. This approach yields a global estimate of 0.27 (0.19-0.35) (Tg N2O) year-1 released by lichens and bryophytes. This is lower than previous estimates but corresponds to about 50 % of the atmospheric deposition of nitrous oxide into the oceans or 25 % of the atmospheric deposition on land. Uncertainty in our simulated estimate results from large variation in emission rates due to both physiological differences between species and spatial heterogeneity of climatic conditions. To constrain our predictions, combined online gas exchange measurements of respiration and nitrous oxide emissions may be helpful.

  6. Estimates of phytoplankton class-specific and total primary production in the Mediterranean Sea from satellite ocean color observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uitz, Julia; Stramski, Dariusz; Gentili, Bernard; D'Ortenzio, Fabrizio; Claustre, Hervé

    2012-06-01

    An approach that combines a recently developed procedure for improved estimation of surface chlorophyll a concentration (Chlsurf) from ocean color and a phytoplankton class-specific bio-optical model was used to examine primary production in the Mediterranean Sea. Specifically, this approach was applied to the 10 year time series of satellite Chlsurfdata from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor. We estimated the primary production associated with three major phytoplankton classes (micro, nano, and picophytoplankton), which also yielded new estimates of the total primary production (Ptot). These estimates of Ptot (e.g., 68 g C m-2 yr-1for the entire Mediterranean basin) are lower by a factor of ˜2 and show a different seasonal cycle when compared with results from conventional approaches based on standard ocean color chlorophyll algorithm and a non-class-specific primary production model. Nanophytoplankton are found to be dominant contributors to Ptot (43-50%) throughout the year and entire basin. Micro and picophytoplankton exhibit variable contributions to Ptot depending on the season and ecological regime. In the most oligotrophic regime, these contributions are relatively stable all year long with picophytoplankton (˜32%) playing a larger role than microphytoplankton (˜22%). In the blooming regime, picophytoplankton dominate over microphytoplankton most of the year, except during the spring bloom when microphytoplankton (27-38%) are considerably more important than picophytoplankton (20-27%).

  7. Developing a 30-m grassland productivity estimation map for central Nebraska using 250-m MODIS and 30-m Landsat-8 observations

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

    2015-01-01

    Accurately estimating aboveground vegetation biomass productivity is essential for local ecosystem assessment and best land management practice. Satellite-derived growing season time-integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GSN) has been used as a proxy for vegetation biomass productivity. A 250-m grassland biomass productivity map for the Greater Platte River Basin had been developed based on the relationship between Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) GSN and Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) annual grassland productivity. However, the 250-m MODIS grassland biomass productivity map does not capture detailed ecological features (or patterns) and may result in only generalized estimation of the regional total productivity. Developing a high or moderate spatial resolution (e.g., 30-m) productivity map to better understand the regional detailed vegetation condition and ecosystem services is preferred. The 30-m Landsat data provide spatial detail for characterizing human-scale processes and have been successfully used for land cover and land change studies. The main goal of this study is to develop a 30-m grassland biomass productivity estimation map for central Nebraska, leveraging 250-m MODIS GSN and 30-m Landsat data. A rule-based piecewise regression GSN model based on MODIS and Landsat (r = 0.91) was developed, and a 30-m MODIS equivalent GSN map was generated. Finally, a 30-m grassland biomass productivity estimation map, which provides spatially detailed ecological features and conditions for central Nebraska, was produced. The resulting 30-m grassland productivity map was generally supported by the SSURGO biomass production map and will be useful for regional ecosystem study and local land management practices.

  8. A life-cycle approach to low-invasion potential bioenergy production

    USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

    Increasing demand for energy has increased economic incentives to develop and deploy novel bioenergy crops for biomass production. Similarities in plant traits between many candidate bioenergy crops and known invasive species have raised concerns about the potential for bioenergy crops to escape pro...

  9. Natural-product-based chromenes as a novel class of potential termiticides.

    PubMed

    Meepagala, Kumudini M; Osbrink, Weste; Burandt, Charles; Lax, Alan; Duke, Stephen O

    2011-11-01

    Among the termite infestations in the United States, the Formosan subterranean termite, Coptotermes formosanus Shiraki (Isoptera: Rhinotermitidae), is considered to be the most devastating termite pest. This pest most likely invaded North America as a result of the disembarkation of wooden military cargo at the port of New Orleans that arrived from Asia during and after World War II. It has now spread over other states, including Texas, Florida, South Carolina and California. Devastation caused by C. formosanus in North America has been estimated to cost $ US 1 billion a year. Over the past decades, organochlorines and organophosphates, the two prominent classes of termite control agents, have been banned owing to environmental and human health concerns. At the present time, phenylpyrazoles, pyrethroids, chloronicotinyls and pyrroles are being used as termite control agents. Mammalian toxicity and seeping of these compounds into groundwater are some of the drawbacks associated with these treatments. The instruction for the application of these termiticides indicate ground water advisory. Hence, with the increasing spread of termite infestation there is an increased need to discover effective, environmentally friendly and safe termite control agents with minimal mammalian toxicity. Chromene analogs derived from a natural-product-based chromene amide isolated from Amyris texana were tested in a collaborative discovery program for effective, environmentally friendly termite control agents. Several chromene derivatives were synthesized and characterized as a novel class of potential termiticides, followed by bioassays. These compounds exhibited significantly higher mortalities compared with untreated controls in laboratory bioassays. Chromene derivatives have been shown to be a potential novel class of termiticides against Formosan subterranean termites. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  10. Use of metabolic inhibitors to estimate protozooplankton grazing and bacterial production in a monomictic eutrophic lake with an anaerobic hypolimnion

    DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

    Sanders, R.W.; Porter, K.G.

    Inhibitors of eucaryotes (cycloheximide and amphotericin B) and procaryotes (penicillin and chloramphenical) were used to estimate bacterivory and bacterial production in a eutrophic lake. Bacterial production appeared to be slightly greater than protozoan grazing in the aerobic waters of Lake Oglethorpe. Use of penicillin and cycloheximide yielded inconsistent results in anaerobic water and in aerobic water when bacterial production was low. Production measured by inhibiting eucaryotes with cycloheximide did not always agree with (/sup 3/H)thymidine estimates or differential filtration methods. Laboratory experiments showed that several common freshwater protozoans continued to swim and ingest bacterium-size latex beads in the presence ofmore » the eucaryote inhibitor. Penicillin also affected grazing rates of some ciliates. The authors recommended that caution and a corroborating method be used when estimating ecologically important parameters with specific inhibitors.« less

  11. Productivity and cost estimators for conventional ground-based skidding on steep terrain using preplanned skid roads

    Treesearch

    Michael D. Erickson; Curt C. Hassler; Chris B. LeDoux

    1991-01-01

    Continuous time and motion study techniques were used to develop productivity and cost estimators for the skidding component of ground-based logging systems, operating on steep terrain using preplanned skid roads. Comparisons of productivity and costs were analyzed for an overland random access skidding method, verses a skidding method utilizing a network of preplanned...

  12. Turkey's High Temperature Geothermal Energy Resources and Electricity Production Potential

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bilgin, Ö.

    2012-04-01

    Turkey is in the first 7 countries in the world in terms of potential and applications. Geothermal energy which is an alternative energy resource has advantages such as low-cost, clean, safe and natural resource. Geothermal energy is defined as hot water and steam which is formed by heat that accumulated in various depths of the Earth's crust; with more than 20oC temperature and which contain more than fused minerals, various salts and gases than normal underground and ground water. It is divided into three groups as low, medium and high temperature. High-temperature fluid is used in electricity generation, low and medium temperature fluids are used in greenhouses, houses, airport runways, animal farms and places such as swimming pools heating. In this study high temperature geothermal fields in Turkey which is suitable for electricity production, properties and electricity production potential was investigated.

  13. Real-time recognition of feedback error-related potentials during a time-estimation task.

    PubMed

    Lopez-Larraz, Eduardo; Iturrate, Iñaki; Montesano, Luis; Minguez, Javier

    2010-01-01

    Feedback error-related potentials are a promising brain process in the field of rehabilitation since they are related to human learning. Due to the fact that many therapeutic strategies rely on the presentation of feedback stimuli, potentials generated by these stimuli could be used to ameliorate the patient's progress. In this paper we propose a method that can identify, in real-time, feedback evoked potentials in a time-estimation task. We have tested our system with five participants in two different days with a separation of three weeks between them, achieving a mean single-trial detection performance of 71.62% for real-time recognition, and 78.08% in offline classification. Additionally, an analysis of the stability of the signal between the two days is performed, suggesting that the feedback responses are stable enough to be used without the needing of training again the user.

  14. Estimate of the potential impact of folic acid fortification of corn masa flour on the prevention of neural tube defects.

    PubMed

    Tinker, Sarah C; Devine, Owen; Mai, Cara; Hamner, Heather C; Reefhuis, Jennita; Gilboa, Suzanne M; Dowling, Nicole F; Honein, Margaret A

    2013-10-01

    Hispanics in the US have a higher prevalence of neural tube defect (NTD) -affected pregnancies than non-Hispanic whites, and lower median total folic acid (FA) intake. FA fortification of corn masa flour (CMF) is a policy-level intervention for NTD prevention; however, the impact on NTD prevalence has not been estimated. We developed a model to estimate the percentage reduction in prevalence of spina bifida and anencephaly (NTDs) that could occur with FA fortification of CMF. Model inputs included estimates of the percentage reduction in United States NTD prevalence attributed to FA fortification of enriched cereal grain products (1995-1996 vs. 1998-2002), the increase in median FA intake after enriched cereal grain product fortification, and the estimated increase in median FA intake that could occur with CMF fortification at the same level as enriched cereal grain products (140 μg/100 g). We used Monte Carlo simulation to quantify uncertainty. We stratified analyses by racial/ethnic group and rounded results to the nearest 10. We estimated CMF fortification could prevent 30 Hispanic infants from having spina bifida (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 80) and 10 infants from having anencephaly (95% uncertainty interval: 0, 40) annually. The estimated impact among non-Hispanic whites and blacks was smaller. CMF fortification with FA could prevent from 0 to 120 infants, with the most likely value of approximately 40, from having spina bifida or anencephaly among Hispanics, the population most likely to benefit from the proposed intervention. While this estimated reduction is unlikely to be discernible using current birth defect surveillance methods, it still suggests an important benefit to the target population. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Assessment of the Potential for Flux Estimation Using Concentration Data from Mobile Surveys

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gyenis, A.; Zahasky, C.; Moriarty, D. M.; Benson, S. M.

    2014-12-01

    Carbon capture and storage is a climate change mitigation technology with the potential to serve as a bridge technology as society transitions from a fossil fuel dependent energy system to a renewable energy dominated system. One of the greatest concerns associated with wide-scale adoption of carbon capture and storage technology is the risk of carbon dioxide leakage from sequestration reservoirs. Thus there is a need to develop efficient and effective strategies for monitoring and verification of geologically stored carbon dioxide. To evaluate the potential for estimating leakage fluxes based on mobile surveys, we establish correlations between concentration data and flux measurements made with a flux chamber. These correlations are then used to estimate leakage fluxes over a 70-meter long horizontal well buried approximately 1.8 meters below the surface at the Zero Emissions Research and Technology (ZERT) facility operated by Montana State University. The CO2 had a leakage rate of 0.15 t/d, which is comparable to a small leak in an industrial scale project (0.005% of a 1 Mt/yr storage project). A Picarro gas analyzer was used to measure 12CO2 and 13CO2 at heights of 3 cm above the ground surface. Previous studies (Moriarty, 2014) show that concentration data at this height provides a very high likelihood (>95%) of detecting leaks within a distance of 2.5 m of the leak. Measured concentration data show a noisy but significant correlation with flux measurements, thus providing the possibility to obtain rough estimates of leakage fluxes from mobile measurements. Moriarty, Dylan, 2014. Rapid Surface Detection of CO2 Leaks from Geologic Sequestration Sites. MS Thesis, Stanford University.

  16. Application of remote sensing to estimating soil erosion potential

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris-Jones, D. R.; Kiefer, R. W.

    1980-01-01

    A variety of remote sensing data sources and interpretation techniques has been tested in a 6136 hectare watershed with agricultural, forest and urban land cover to determine the relative utility of alternative aerial photographic data sources for gathering the desired land use/land cover data. The principal photographic data sources are high altitude 9 x 9 inch color infrared photos at 1:120,000 and 1:60,000 and multi-date medium altitude color and color infrared photos at 1:60,000. Principal data for estimating soil erosion potential include precipitation, soil, slope, crop, crop practice, and land use/land cover data derived from topographic maps, soil maps, and remote sensing. A computer-based geographic information system organized on a one-hectare grid cell basis is used to store and quantify the information collected using different data sources and interpretation techniques. Research results are compared with traditional Universal Soil Loss Equation field survey methods.

  17. Temporal analysis of vegetation indices related to biophysical parameters using Sentinel 2A images to estimate maize production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macedo, Lucas Saran; Kawakubo, Fernando Shinji

    2017-10-01

    Agricultural production is one of the most important Brazilian economic activities accounting for about 21,5% of total Gross Domestic Product. In this scenario, the use of satellite images for estimating biophysical parameters along the phenological development of agricultural crops allows the conclusion about the sanity of planting and helps the projection on design production trends. The objective of this study is to analyze the temporal patterns and variation of six vegetion indexes obtained from the bands of Sentinel 2A satellite, associated with greenness (NDVI and ClRE), senescence (mARI and PSRI) and water content (DSWI and NDWI) to estimate maize production. The temporal pattern of the indices was analyzed in function of productivity data collected in-situ. The results obtained evidenced the importance of the SWIR and Red Edge ranges with Pearson correlation values of the temporal mean for NDWI 0.88 and 0.76 for CLRE.

  18. Estimating consumer willingness to pay a price premium for Alaska secondary wood products.

    Treesearch

    Geoffrey H. Donovan; David L. Nicholls

    2003-01-01

    Dichotomous choice contingent valuation survey techniques were used to estimate mean willingness to pay (WTP) a price premium for made-in-Alaska secondary wood products. Respondents were asked to compare two superficially identical end tables, one made in China and one made in Alaska. The surveys were administered at home shows in Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Sitka in...

  19. Method for estimating potential wetland extent by utilizing streamflow statistics and flood-inundation mapping techniques: Pilot study for land along the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kim, Moon H.; Ritz, Christian T.; Arvin, Donald V.

    2012-01-01

    Potential wetland extents were estimated for a 14-mile reach of the Wabash River near Terre Haute, Indiana. This pilot study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). The study showed that potential wetland extents can be estimated by analyzing streamflow statistics with the available streamgage data, calculating the approximate water-surface elevation along the river, and generating maps by use of flood-inundation mapping techniques. Planning successful restorations for Wetland Reserve Program (WRP) easements requires a determination of areas that show evidence of being in a zone prone to sustained or frequent flooding. Zone determinations of this type are used by WRP planners to define the actively inundated area and make decisions on restoration-practice installation. According to WRP planning guidelines, a site needs to show evidence of being in an "inundation zone" that is prone to sustained or frequent flooding for a period of 7 consecutive days at least once every 2 years on average in order to meet the planning criteria for determining a wetland for a restoration in agricultural land. By calculating the annual highest 7-consecutive-day mean discharge with a 2-year recurrence interval (7MQ2) at a streamgage on the basis of available streamflow data, one can determine the water-surface elevation corresponding to the calculated flow that defines the estimated inundation zone along the river. By using the estimated water-surface elevation ("inundation elevation") along the river, an approximate extent of potential wetland for a restoration in agricultural land can be mapped. As part of the pilot study, a set of maps representing the estimated potential wetland extents was generated in a geographic information system (GIS) application by combining (1) a digital water-surface plane representing the surface of inundation elevation that sloped in the downstream

  20. Recycling of osmotic solutions in microwave-osmotic dehydration: product quality and potential for creation of a novel product.

    PubMed

    Wray, Derek; Ramaswamy, Hosahalli S

    2016-08-01

    Despite osmotic dehydration being a cost effective process for moisture removal, the cost implications of making, regenerating, and properly disposing of the spent osmotic solutions contributes greatly to the economic feasibility of the drying operation. The potential for recycling of osmotic solutions and their use for creation of a novel product was explored using microwave-osmotic dehydration under continuous flow spray (MWODS) conditions. Identical runs were repeated 10 times to determine the progressive physical and compositional effects of the thermal treatment and leaching from the cranberry samples. The microbiological stability and constant drying performance indicated that MWODS would be well suited for employing recycled solutions. While the anthocyanin content of the solution never approached that of cranberry juice concentrate, it is demonstrated that the spent syrup can infuse these health positive components into another product (apple). This study found that re-using osmotic solutions is a viable option to reduce cost in future MWODS applications, with no detriment to product quality and potential to use the spent solution for novel products. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.