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Sample records for european climate policy

  1. Evaluating European Climate Change Policy: An Ecological Justice Approach

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Muhovic-Dorsner, Kamala

    2005-01-01

    To date, the concept of ecological justice, when applied to international climate change policy, has largely focused on the North-South dichotomy and has yet to be extended to Central and Eastern European countries. This article argues that current formulations of climate change policy cannot address potential issues of ecological injustice to…

  2. A healthy turn in urban climate change policies; European city workshop proposes health indicators as policy integrators

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background The EU FP6 HENVINET project reviewed the potential relevance of a focus on climate change related health effects for climate change policies at the city region level. This was undertaken by means of a workshop with both scientists, city representatives from several EU-countries, representatives of EU city networks and EU-experts. In this paper we introduce some important health related climate change issues, and discuss the current city policies of the participating cities. Methods The workshop used a backcasting format to analyse the future relevance of a health perspective, and the main benefits and challenges this would bring to urban policy making. Results It was concluded that health issues have an important function as indicators of success for urban climate change policies, given the extent to which climate change policies contribute to public health and as such to quality of life. Simultaneously the health perspective may function as a policy integrator in that it can combine several related policy objectives, such as environmental policies, health policies, urban planning and economic development policies, in one framework for action. Furthermore, the participants to the workshop considered public health to be of strategic importance in organizing public support for climate change policies. One important conclusion of the workshop was the view that the connection of science and policy at the city level is inadequate, and that the integration of scientific knowledge on climate change related health effects and local policy practice is in need of more attention. In conclusion, the workshop was viewed as a constructive advance in the process of integration which hopefully will lead to ongoing cooperation. Conclusions The workshop had the ambition to bring together a diversity of actor perspectives for exchange of knowledge and experiences, and joint understanding as a basis for future cooperation. Next to the complementarities in experience and

  3. OER: A European Policy Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alquézar Sabadie, Jesús Maria; Castaño Muñoz, Jonatan; Puni, Yves; Redecker, Christine; Vuorikari, Riina

    2014-01-01

    The potential benefits of OER have led many European governments to implement policies supporting their creation and use. This chapter aims to put these OER policies in context, discussing their focus and scope and highlighting challenges and bottlenecks. On the basis of the analysis of the current state of the art, it is argued that one of main…

  4. Climate Change Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jepma, Catrinus J.; Munasinghe, Mohan; Bolin, Foreword By Bert; Watson, Robert; Bruce, James P.

    1998-03-01

    There is increasing scientific evidence to suggest that humans are gradually but certainly changing the Earth's climate. In an effort to prevent further damage to the fragile atmosphere, and with the belief that action is required now, the scientific community has been prolific in its dissemination of information on climate change. Inspired by the results of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Second Assessment Report, Jepma and Munasinghe set out to create a concise, practical, and compelling approach to climate change issues. They deftly explain the implications of global warming, and the risks involved in attempting to mitigate climate change. They look at how and where to start action, and what organization is needed to be able to implement the changes. This book represents a much needed synopsis of climate change and its real impacts on society. It will be an essential text for climate change researchers, policy analysts, university students studying the environment, and anyone with an interest in climate change issues. A digestible version of the IPCC 1995 Economics Report - written by two of IPCC contributors with a Foreword by two of the editors of Climate Change 1995: Economics of Climate Change: i.e. has unofficial IPCC approval Focusses on policy and economics - important but of marginal interest to scientists, who are more likely to buy this summary than the full IPCC report itself Has case-studies to get the points across Separate study guide workbook will be available, mode of presentation (Web or book) not yet finalized

  5. [Energy policy rather than climate policy].

    PubMed

    Kroonenberg, Salomon B

    2009-01-01

    Energy policy and climate policy are two different issues and should not be treated as if they were the same. Whether the climate gets warmer or colder, saving energy and developing sustainable forms of energy production remain of paramount importance because fossil hydrocarbons are likely to be exhausted soon. But climate policy is a fallacy: it is human arrogance to think we can control the climate by reducing emissions and by storing CO2 underground. In spite of rising CO2 levels, the climate has cooled down slightly over the past decade. Since the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) did not predict this, it is questionable whether they can reliably predict warming. Other factors such as solar activity are probably more important for climate than greenhouse gases. The danger of coupling energy policy to climate policy is evident: if the climate cools down, people will lose belief in the greenhouse effect and therefore also lose interest in saving energy. PMID:20025789

  6. Participation in European water policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Ast, J. A.; Boot, S. P.

    This paper considers the possibilities for interactive policy-making in European water management. In the new European Water Framework Directive, public information and consultation are major elements in the procedure (process) that leads to River Basin Management Plans. In general, decision making in integrated water management should not be limited to the application of models and desk studies. Important decisions need a high level of participation. In this interactive approach, visions, ideas, patterns of behaviour and solutions to perceived problems of different societal actors can be identified and incorporated into the decision-making process. For example, farmer organisations, environmental groups and associations of house owners, but also individual citizens often have various and differing ideas about measures that change the physical, chemical or biological characteristics of a river basin. Well-organised interaction has two main potential advantages: The quality of the decision will be higher because specific knowledge of people involved and their different views are taken into consideration. The interaction enables exchange of information which can lead to a better understanding of the ins and outs of the specific situation and in this way contribute to public support. By means of two examples of water related policy issues in Europe, i.e. economic approaches in the water framework directive and Integrated Product Policy, various opportunities for pluralistic as well as corporatist types of participation in modern water management are presented and discussed.

  7. Security Economics and European Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Ross; Böhme, Rainer; Clayton, Richard; Moor, Tyler

    In September 2007, we were awarded a contract by the European Network and Information Security Agency (ENISA) to investigate failures in the market for secure electronic communications within the European Union, and come up with policy recommendations. In the process, we spoke to a large number of stakeholders, and held a consultative meeting in December 2007 in Brussels to present draft proposals, which established most had wide stakeholder support. The formal outcome of our work was a detailed report, “Security Economics and the Internal Market”, published by ENISA in March 2008. This paper presents a much abridged version: in it, we present the recommendations we made, along with a summary of our reasoning.

  8. Europeanizing Education: Governing a New Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawn, Martin; Grek, Sotiria

    2012-01-01

    The study of common and diverse effects in the field of education across Europe is a growing field of inquiry and research. It is the result of many actions, networks and programmes over the last few decades and the development of common European education policies. "Europeanizing Education" describes the origins of European education policy, as…

  9. Natural Climate Variability and Future Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ricke, K.; Caldeira, K.

    2013-12-01

    Individual beliefs about climate change and willingness-to-pay for its mitigation are influenced by local weather and climate. Large ensemble climate modeling experiments have demonstrated the large role natural variability plays in local weather and climate on a multidecadal timescale. Here we illustrate how if support for global climate policies and subsequent implementation of those policies are determined by citizens' local experiences, natural variability could influence the timeline for implementation of emissions reduction policies by decades. The response of complex social systems to local and regional changes in weather and climate cannot be quantitatively predicted with confidence. Both the form and timing of the societal response can be affected by interactions between social systems and the physical climate system. Here, to illustrate one type of influence decadal natural variability can have on climate policy, we consider a simple example in which the only question is when, if ever, the different parties will support emissions reduction. To analyze the potential effect that unpredictable extreme events may have on the time to reach a global agreement on climate policy, we analyzed the output from a 40-member Community Climate System Model version 3 simulation ensemble to illustrate how local experiences might affect the timing of acceptance of strong climate policy measures. We assume that a nation's decision to take strong actions to abate emissions is contingent upon the local experiences of its citizens and then examine how the timelines for policy action may be influenced by variability in local weather. To illustrate, we assume that a social 'tipping point' is reached at the national level occurs when half of the population of a nation has experienced a sufficiently extreme event. If climate policies are driven by democratic consensus then variability in weather could result in significantly disparate times-to-action. For the top six CO2 emitters

  10. Climate change and respiratory disease: European Respiratory Society position statement.

    PubMed

    Ayres, J G; Forsberg, B; Annesi-Maesano, I; Dey, R; Ebi, K L; Helms, P J; Medina-Ramón, M; Windt, M; Forastiere, F

    2009-08-01

    Climate change will affect individuals with pre-existing respiratory disease, but the extent of the effect remains unclear. The present position statement was developed on behalf of the European Respiratory Society in order to identify areas of concern arising from climate change for individuals with respiratory disease, healthcare workers in the respiratory sector and policy makers. The statement was developed following a 2-day workshop held in Leuven (Belgium) in March 2008. Key areas of concern for the respiratory community arising from climate change are discussed and recommendations made to address gaps in knowledge. The most important recommendation was the development of more accurate predictive models for predicting the impact of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory healthcare workers also have an advocatory role in persuading governments and the European Union to maintain awareness and appropriate actions with respect to climate change, and these areas are also discussed in the position statement. PMID:19251790

  11. Standardizing the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lawn, Martin

    2011-01-01

    Countries in Europe, through the European Union, are creating, as part of the market and its governance, a new policy space in education. It is being formed through law, regulation, networking and harmonization. The development of standards across the different fields of policy, statistical calculation and commerce underpins and extends the…

  12. Suggesting a new European language policy.

    PubMed

    Nelde, Peter H

    2004-01-01

    Conflict is the most intriguing aspect of contact linguistics. Throughout history ever since the Tower of Babel was left unfinished, contacts between speakers of different languages have unavoidably resulted in conflicts between speakers of those languages. Without any doubt, the European Union (EU)--above all after the decision to enlarge the community--has accepted the multidisciplinary symbolic function of language and culture as a basis for European political unification. Accordingly, European Union policy makers have had to analyze conflicts caused by monolingualism and multilingualism, all aspects of contact linguistics. Can these conflicts be solved, minimized or neutralized by strategies of language planning, language policies and language politics? Initial results of European language policy strategies permit at least a cautious measure of optimism and open broad perspectives for the future of a New Multilingualism which will be discussed in our contribution. PMID:15156723

  13. Technology and international climate policy

    SciTech Connect

    Clarke, Leon; Calvin, Kate; Edmonds, James A.; Kyle, Page; Wise, Marshall

    2009-05-01

    Both the nature of international climate policy architectures and the development and diffusion of new energy technologies could dramatically influence future costs of reducing global emissions of greenhouse gases. This paper explores the implications of interactions between technology availability and performance and international policy architectures for technology choice and the social cost of limiting atmospheric CO2 concentrations to 500 ppm by the year 2095. Key issues explored in the paper include the role of bioenergy production with CO2 capture and storage (CCS), overshoot concentration pathways, and the sensitivity of mitigation costs to policy and technology.

  14. Recycling policy in the european union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gaballah, I.; Kanari, N.

    2001-11-01

    Recycling in the European Union (EU) has benefited from R&D efforts and strict environmental regulations of the EU’s members. Thanks to the adoption of sustainable development policies by the EU’s European Institutions, economic incentives are expected to further strengthen the recycling industry. Moreover, the historical accumulation of non-ferrous metals in Europe will likely enhance secondary metal production. Also contributing to EU recycling is mining in East European countries and the resulting industrial waste. The rate of growth of the recycling industry is expected to approach double digits for at least this decade.

  15. GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR FISHERIES

    EPA Science Inventory

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. hese include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. or fisheries resources, policy questions address eff...

  16. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    SciTech Connect

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability? Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come? This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  17. Economics, ethics, and climate policy

    SciTech Connect

    Howarth, R.B.; Monahan, P.A.

    1992-11-01

    Are the costs of greenhouse gas emissions abatement justified by the perceived benefits of sustained climate stability Do people of the present generation have a moral right to impose climate risks on their descendants in generations to come This report examines these questions in light of the emergent facts of climate science and their socioeconomic implications. We consider alternative normative criteria for social decision-making with particular emphasis on cost-benefit analysis and the principle of sustainable development. While each framework yields important insights, we argue that the gross uncertainties associated with climate change and the distribution of impacts between present and future generations constrain the usefulness of cost-benefit criteria in evaluating climate policy. If one accepts the ethical proposition that it is morally wrong to impose catastrophic risks on unborn generations when reducing those risks would not noticeably diminish the quality of life of existing persons, a case can be made for concerted policy action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

  18. Deconstructing "Aspiration": UK Policy Debates and European Policy Trends

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spohrer, Konstanze

    2011-01-01

    Strategies of "employability" and "activation" are increasingly favoured in the European Union policy context. These strategies are aimed at fostering inclusion by stressing the responsibility of the individual to participate in education and employment. Similar tendencies can be observed in the United Kingdom (UK) over the last decade, among them…

  19. European information on climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jol, A.; Isoard, S.

    2010-09-01

    Vulnerability to natural and technological disasters is increasing due to a combination of intensifying land use, increasing industrial development, further urban expansion and expanding infrastructure and also climate change. At EU level the European Commission's White Paper on adaptation to climate change (published in 2009) highlights that adaptation actions should be focused on the most vulnerable areas and communities in Europe (e.g. mountains, coastal areas, river flood prone areas, Mediterranean, Arctic). Mainstreaming of climate change into existing EU policies will be a key policy, including within the Water Framework Directive, Marine Strategy Framework Directive, Nature protection and biodiversity policies, integrated coastal zone management, other (sectoral) policies (agriculture, forestry, energy, transport, health) and disaster risk prevention. 2010 is the international year on biodiversity and the Conference of Parties of the biodiversity convention will meet in autumn 2010 (Japan) to discuss amongst other post-2010 strategies, objectives and indicators. Both within the Biodiversity Convention (CBD) and the Climate Change Convention (UNFCCC) there is increasing recognition of the need for integration of biodiversity conservation into climate change mitigation and adaptation activities. Furthermore a number of European countries and also some regions have started to prepare and/or have adopted national adaptation plans or frameworks. Sharing of good practices on climate change vulnerability methods and adaptation actions is so far limited, but is essential to improve such plans, at national, sub national and local level where much of the adaptation action is already taking place and will be expanding in future, also involving increasingly the business community. The EU Clearinghouse on CC impacts, vulnerability and adaptation should address these needs and it is planned to be operational end of 2011. The EEA is expected to have a role in its

  20. European healthcare policies for controlling drug expenditure.

    PubMed

    Ess, Silvia M; Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Szucs, Thomas D

    2003-01-01

    In the last 20 years, expenditures on pharmaceuticals - as well as total health expenditures - have grown faster than the gross national product in all European countries. The aim of this paper was to review policies that European governments apply to reduce or at least slow down public expenditure on pharmaceutical products. Such policies can target the industry, the wholesalers and retailers, prescribers, and patients. The objectives of pharmaceutical policies are multidimensional and must take into account issues relating to public health, public expenditure and industrial incentives. Both price levels and consumption patterns determine the level of total drug expenditure in a particular country, and both factors vary greatly across countries. Licensing and pricing policies intend to influence the supply side. Three types of pricing policies can be recognised: product price control, reference pricing and profit control. Profit control is mainly used in the UK. Reference pricing systems were first used in Germany and The Netherlands and are being considered in other countries. Product price control is still the most common method for establishing the price of drugs. For the aim of fiscal consolidation, price-freeze and price-cut measures have been frequently used in the 1980s and 1990s. They have affected all types of schemes. For drug wholesalers and retailers, most governments have defined profit margins. The differences in price levels as well as the introduction of a Single European Pharmaceutical Market has led to the phenomenon of parallel imports among member countries of the European Union. This may be facilitated by larger and more powerful wholesalers and the vertical integration between wholesalers and retailers. To control costs, the use of generic drugs is encouraged in most countries, but only few countries allow pharmacists to substitute generic drugs for proprietary brands. Various interventions are used to reduce the patients' demand for drugs by

  1. European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism

    PubMed Central

    Maltby, Tomas

    2013-01-01

    Focusing on gas, this article explores the role of the European Commission in the process of European Union energy security policy development, and the extent to which the policy area is becoming increasingly supranational. Situating the article within the literature on agenda-setting and framing, it is argued that a policy window was opened as a result of: enlargement to include more energy import dependent states, a trend of increasing energy imports and prices, and gas supply disruptions. From the mid-2000s, the Commission contributed to a shift in political norms, successfully framing import dependency as a problem requiring an EU-level solution, based on the institution’s pre-existing preferences for a diversified energy supply and internal energy market. Whilst Member States retain significant sovereignty, the Commission has achieved since 2006 creeping competencies in the internal, and to a lesser extent external, dimensions of EU energy policy. PMID:24926115

  2. European Union energy policy integration: A case of European Commission policy entrepreneurship and increasing supranationalism.

    PubMed

    Maltby, Tomas

    2013-04-01

    Focusing on gas, this article explores the role of the European Commission in the process of European Union energy security policy development, and the extent to which the policy area is becoming increasingly supranational. Situating the article within the literature on agenda-setting and framing, it is argued that a policy window was opened as a result of: enlargement to include more energy import dependent states, a trend of increasing energy imports and prices, and gas supply disruptions. From the mid-2000s, the Commission contributed to a shift in political norms, successfully framing import dependency as a problem requiring an EU-level solution, based on the institution's pre-existing preferences for a diversified energy supply and internal energy market. Whilst Member States retain significant sovereignty, the Commission has achieved since 2006 creeping competencies in the internal, and to a lesser extent external, dimensions of EU energy policy. PMID:24926115

  3. Climate policies under wealth inequality

    PubMed Central

    Vasconcelos, Vítor V.; Santos, Francisco C.; Pacheco, Jorge M.; Levin, Simon A.

    2014-01-01

    Taming the planet’s climate requires cooperation. Previous failures to reach consensus in climate summits have been attributed, among other factors, to conflicting policies between rich and poor countries, which disagree on the implementation of mitigation measures. Here we implement wealth inequality in a threshold public goods dilemma of cooperation in which players also face the risk of potential future losses. We consider a population exhibiting an asymmetric distribution of rich and poor players that reflects the present-day status of nations and study the behavioral interplay between rich and poor in time, regarding their willingness to cooperate. Individuals are also allowed to exhibit a variable degree of homophily, which acts to limit those that constitute one’s sphere of influence. Under the premises of our model, and in the absence of homophily, comparison between scenarios with wealth inequality and without wealth inequality shows that the former leads to more global cooperation than the latter. Furthermore, we find that the rich generally contribute more than the poor and will often compensate for the lower contribution of the latter. Contributions from the poor, which are crucial to overcome the climate change dilemma, are shown to be very sensitive to homophily, which, if prevalent, can lead to a collapse of their overall contribution. In such cases, however, we also find that obstinate cooperative behavior by a few poor may largely compensate for homophilic behavior. PMID:24469806

  4. Politics and Policies of Promoting Multilingualism in the European Union

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Romaine, Suzanne

    2013-01-01

    This article examines the politics of policies promoting multilingualism in the European Union (EU), specifically in light of the recently released European Union Civil Society Platform on Multilingualism. As the most far-reaching and ambitious policy document issued by the European Commission, the Platform warrants close scrutiny at a significant…

  5. The fingerprint of climate trends on European crop yields

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2015-01-01

    Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early 1990s as well as statistically significant warming during the growing season. Although it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term yield trends to a changing climate. Here, we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these tests to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends since 1989 have reduced continent-wide wheat and barley yields by 2.5% and 3.8%, respectively, and have slightly increased maize and sugar beet yields. These averages disguise large heterogeneity across the continent, with regions around the Mediterranean experiencing significant adverse impacts on most crops. This result means that climate trends can account for ∼10% of the stagnation in European wheat and barley yields, with likely explanations for the remainder including changes in agriculture and environmental policies. PMID:25691735

  6. European meteorological data: contribution to research, development, and policy support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biavetti, Irene; Karetsos, Sotiris; Ceglar, Andrej; Toreti, Andrea; Panagos, Panos

    2014-08-01

    The Joint Research Centre of the European Commission has developed Interpolated Meteorological Datasets available on a regular 25x25km grid both to the scientific community and the general public. Among others, the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets include daily maximum/minimum temperature, cumulated daily precipitation, evapotranspiration and wind speed. These datasets can be accessed through a web interface after a simple registration procedure. The Interpolated Meteorological Datasets also serve the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) at European level. The temporal coverage of the datasets is more than 30 years and the spatial coverage includes EU Member States, neighboring European countries, and the Mediterranean countries. The meteorological data are highly relevant for the development, implementation and assessment of a number of European Union (EU) policy areas: agriculture, soil protection, environment, agriculture, food security, energy, climate change. An online user survey has been carried out in order to assess the impact of the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets on research developments. More than 70% of the users have used the meteorological datasets for research purposes and more than 50% of the users have used those sources as main input for their models. The usefulness of the data scored more than 70% and it is interesting to note that around 25% of the users have published their scientific outputs based on the Interpolated Meteorological Datasets. Finally, the user feedback focuses mostly on improving the data distribution process as well as the visibility of the web platform.

  7. European water policy and research on water-related topics - An overview

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quevauviller, Philippe

    2014-10-01

    European water policy developments are essentially linked to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive and parent legislation, which is built upon the principle of river basin management planning with the objective of achieving good status for all European water bodies. Recent policy developments in the climate change area call for ‘climate proofing' of EU actions through mainstreaming of adaptation measures into policies and programmes. These policy trends are very closely related to the capacity to get access to supporting scientific information and to bridge the knowledge gap. This paper is about these features, serving as an introduction to the special issue of Journal of Hydrology on climatic change impact on water: overcoming data and science gaps.

  8. Cooperation and discord in global climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keohane, Robert O.; Victor, David G.

    2016-06-01

    Effective mitigation of climate change will require deep international cooperation, which is much more difficult to organize than the shallow coordination observed so far. Assessing the prospects for effective joint action on climate change requires an understanding of both the structure of the climate change problem and national preferences for policy action. Preferences have become clearer in light of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Conference of the Parties in December 2015. Although deep cooperation remains elusive, many partial efforts could build confidence and lead to larger cuts in emissions. This strategy of decentralized policy coordination will not solve the climate problem, but it could lead incrementally to deeper cooperation.

  9. From heterogeneity to harmonization? Recent trends in European health policy.

    PubMed

    Gerlinger, Thomas; Urban, Hans-Jürgen

    2007-01-01

    In the European Union (EU), health policy and the institutional reform of health systems have been treated primarily as national affairs, and health care systems within the EU thus differ considerably. However, the health policy field is undergoing a dynamic process of Europeanization. This process is stimulated by the orientation towards a more competitive economy, recently inaugurated and known as the Lisbon Strategy, while the regulatory requirements of the European Economic and Monetary Union are stimulating the Europeanization of health policy. In addition, the so-called open method of coordination, representing a new mode of regulation within the European multi-level system, is applied increasingly to the health policy area. Diverse trends are thus emerging. While the Lisbon Strategy goes along with a strategic upgrading of health policy more generally, health policy is increasingly used to strengthen economic competitiveness. Pressure on Member States is expected to increase to contain costs and promote market-based health care provision. PMID:17625641

  10. The Fingerprint of Climate Trends on European Crop Yields

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F.; Lobell, D. B.

    2014-12-01

    Europe has experienced a stagnation of some crop yields since the early-1990s as well as statistically-significant warming during the growing-season. While it has been argued that these two are causally connected, no previous studies have formally attributed long-term European yield trends to a changing climate. Here we present two statistical tests based on the distinctive spatial pattern of climate change impacts and adaptation, and explore their power under a range of parameter values. We show that statistical power for the identification of climate change impacts is high in many settings, but that power for identifying adaptation is almost always low. Applying these test to European agriculture, we find evidence that long-term temperature and precipitation trends have reduced continent-wide wheat, maize, and barley yields by 2.7%, 1.1%, and 3.9% respectively, and have increased sugarbeet yields by 1.0%. This can account for approximately 10% of the yield stagnation in Europe, with changes in agricultural and environmental policies likely explaining the remainder.

  11. Ruminants, climate change and climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ripple, William J.; Smith, Pete; Haberl, Helmut; Montzka, Stephen A.; McAlpine, Clive; Boucher, Douglas H.

    2014-01-01

    Greenhouse gas emissions from ruminant meat production are significant. Reductions in global ruminant numbers could make a substantial contribution to climate change mitigation goals and yield important social and environmental co-benefits.

  12. Climate, Companies, and Public Policy: How Transparent Is the Private Sector in Reporting Climate Policy Influence?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldman, G. T.; Carlson, C.

    2014-12-01

    To enact effective policies to address climate change, decision makers need both scientific and political support. One major barrier to U.S. climate policy enactment has been the opposition of private sector actors to proposed policies and to climate science itself. Increasingly, the public and investors are holding companies accountable for their actions around climate change—including political activies, affiliations with trade groups, and involvement with climate science. However, this accountability is inhibited by the prominent role that trade associations have played in climate policy debates in recent years. The opaque nature of such groups is problematic, as it inhibits the public from understanding who is obstructing progress on addressing climate change, and in some cases, impedes the public's climate literacy. Voluntary climate reporting can yield some information on companies' climate engagement and demonstrates the need for greater transparency in corporate political activities around climate change. We analyze CDP climate reporting data from 1,824 companies to assess the degree to which corporate actors disclosed their political influence on climate policies through their trade associations. Results demonstrate the limitations of voluntary reporting and the extent to which companies utilize their trade associations to influence climate change policy debates without being held accountable for these positions. Notably, many companies failed to acknowledge their board seat on trade groups with significant climate policy engagement. Of those that did acknowledge their board membership, some claimed not to agree with their trade associations' positions on climate change. These results raise questions about who trade groups are representing when they challenge the science or obstruct policies to address climate change. Recommendations for overcoming this barrier to informed decision making to address climate change will be discussed.

  13. Climate policy to defeat the green paradox.

    PubMed

    Fölster, Stefan; Nyström, Johan

    2010-05-01

    Carbon dioxide emissions have accelerated since the signing of the Kyoto Protocol. This discouraging development may partly be blamed on accelerating world growth and on lags in policy instruments. However, it also raises serious question concerning whether policies to reduce CO2 emissions are as effective as generally assumed. In recent years, a considerable number of studies have identified various feedback mechanisms of climate policies that often erode, and occasionally reinforce, their effectiveness. These studies generally focus on a few feedback mechanisms at a time, without capturing the entire effect. Partial accounting of policy feedbacks is common in many climate scenarios. The IPCC, for example, only accounts for direct leakage and rebound effects. This article attempts to map the aggregate effects of different types of climate policy feedback mechanisms in a cohesive framework. Controlling feedback effects is essential if the policy measures are to make any difference on a global level. A general conclusion is that aggregate policy feedback mechanisms tend to make current climate policies much less effective than is generally assumed. In fact, various policy measures involve a definite risk of 'backfiring' and actually increasing CO2 emissions. This risk is particularly pronounced once effects of climate policies on the pace of innovation in climate technology are considered. To stand any chance of controlling carbon emissions, it is imperative that feedback mechanisms are integrated into emission scenarios, targets for emission reduction and implementation of climate policy. In many cases, this will reduce the scope for subsidies to renewable energy sources, but increase the scope for other measures such as schemes to return carbon dioxide to the ground and to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gases from wetlands and oceans. A framework that incorporates policy feedback effects necessitates rethinking the design of the national and regional emission

  14. Integrating agricultural policies and water policies under water supply and climate uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MejíAs, Patricia; Varela-Ortega, Consuelo; Flichman, Guillermo

    2004-07-01

    Understanding the interactions of water and agricultural policies is crucial for achieving an efficient management of water resources. In the EU, agricultural and environmental policies are seeking to converge progressively toward mutually compatible objectives and, in this context, the recently reformed Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Water Framework Directive constitute the policy framework in which irrigated agriculture and hence water use will evolve. In fact, one of the measures of the European Water Directive is to establish a water pricing policy for improving water use and attaining a more efficient water allocation. The aim of this research is to investigate the irrigators' responses to these changing policy developments in a self-managed irrigation district in southern Spain. A stochastic programming model has been developed to estimate farmers' response to the application of water pricing policies in different agricultural policy scenarios when water availability is subject to varying climate conditions and water storage capacity in the district's reservoir. Results show that irrigators are price-responsive, but a similar water-pricing policy in different agricultural policy options could have distinct effects on water use, farmers' income, and collected revenue by the water authority. Water availability is a critical factor, and pricing policies are less effective for reducing water consumption in drought years. Thus there is a need to integrate the objectives of water policies within the objectives of the CAP programs to avoid distortion effects and to seek synergy between these two policies.

  15. Climate for Collaboration: Analysis of US and EU Lessons and Opportunities in Energy and Climate Policy

    SciTech Connect

    De Vita, A.; de Connick, H.; McLaren, J.; Cochran, J.

    2009-11-01

    A deepening of cooperation between the United States and the European Union requires mutual trust, and understanding of current policies, challenges and successes. Through providing such understanding among policymakers, industry and other stakeholders in both economies, opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate change and energy policy emerge. This paper sets out by discussing the environmental, legislative, and economic contexts of the EU and US as related to climate. This context is essential to understanding how cap-and-trade, renewable energy and sustainable transportation policies have taken shape in the EU and the US, as described in Chapter 3.1. For each of these policies, a barrier analysis and discussion is provided. Chapter 4 builds off this improved understanding to listobservations and possible lessons learned. The paper concludes with recommendations on topics where EU and US interests align, and where further cooperation could prove beneficial.

  16. Innovation Policies from the European Union: Methods for Classification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rodriguez, Victor; Montalvo, Carlos

    2007-01-01

    This study focuses on taxonomic and typological methods of innovation policies in the European institutional context. Although many types of policies affect innovation, no universally accepted criteria exist to classify them. As innovation policy in a myriad of thematic areas--systemic model--has become pluralized, this article offers a method for…

  17. Inclusive Education in Progress: Policy Evolution in Four European Countries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smyth, Fiona; Shevlin, Michael; Buchner, Tobias; Biewer, Gottfried; Flynn, Paula; Latimier, Camille; Šiška, Jan; Toboso-Martín, Mario; Rodríguez Díaz, Susana; Ferreira, Miguel A. V.

    2014-01-01

    This paper seeks to compare the evolution of inclusive education policy in the four countries of an EU-funded research project (QualiTYDES) operating under the shared policy environment of the UN, EU and European Commission. A shared policy cannot of course be assumed to result in common legislative or provisional outcomes at national level. The…

  18. The new European Competence Centre for Moor and Climate - A European initiative for practical peat bog and climate protection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smidt, Geerd; Tänzer, Detlef

    2013-04-01

    The new European Competence Centre for Moor and Climate (EFMK) is an initiative by different local communities, environmental protection NGOs, agricultural services, and partners from the peat and other industries in Lower Saxony (Germany). The Centre aims to integrate practical peat bog conservation with a focus on green house gas emission after drainage and after water logging activities. Together with our partners we want to break new ground to protect the remaining bogs in the region. Sphagnum mosses will be produced in paludiculture on-site in cooperation with the local peat industry to provide economic and ecologic alternatives for peat products used in horticulture business. Land-use changes are needed in the region and will be stimulated in cooperation with agricultural services via compensation money transfers from environmental protection funds. On a global scale the ideas of Carbon Credit System have to be discussed to protect the peat bogs for climate protection issues. Environmental education is an important pillar of the EFMK. The local society is invited to explore the unique ecosystem and to participate in peat bog protection activities. Future generations will be taught to understand that the health of our peat bogs is interrelated with the health of the local and global climate. Besides extracurricular classes for schools the centre will provide infrastructure for Master and PhD students, as well for senior researchers for applied research in the surrounding moor. International partners in the scientific and practical fields of peat bog ecology, renaturation, green house gas emissions from peat bogs, and environmental policy are invited to participate in the European Competence Center for Moor and Climate.

  19. Economic development, climate and values: making policy.

    PubMed

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-08-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

  20. Economic development, climate and values: making policy

    PubMed Central

    Stern, Nicholas

    2015-01-01

    The two defining challenges of this century are overcoming poverty and managing the risks of climate change. Over the past 10 years, we have learned much about how to tackle them together from ideas on economic development and public policy. My own work in these areas over four decades as an academic and as a policy adviser in universities and international financial institutions has focused on how the investment environment and the empowerment of people can change lives and livelihoods. The application of insights from economic development and public policy to climate change requires rigorous analysis of issues such as discounting, modelling the risks of unmanaged climate change, climate policy targets and estimates of the costs of mitigation. The latest research and results show that the case for avoiding the risks of dangerous climate change through the transition to low-carbon economic development and growth is still stronger than when the Stern Review was published. This is partly because of evidence that some of the impacts of climate change are happening more quickly than originally expected, and because of remarkable advances in technologies, such as solar power. Nevertheless, significant hurdles remain in securing the international cooperation required to avoid dangerous climate change, not least because of disagreements and misunderstandings about key issues, such as ethics and equity. PMID:26203007

  1. Climate policy: Reforming emissions trading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2014-08-01

    Courageous steps are required to reform the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme. To this end, an independent carbon authority has been proposed -- this is a move in the right direction, but should be part of a much broader discussion about reforming emissions trading.

  2. Information Policy in the European Community: Balancing Protection and Competition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sillince, J. A. A.

    1994-01-01

    Discusses European Community policy relating to information technology and the information industry. Topics addressed include the information services industry; transborder information flow, including electronic mail, data owner responsibility, and software piracy; digital data networks; electronic data interchange; telecommunications; information…

  3. Facing Global Challenges: A European University Perspective. Policy Perspectives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swail, Watson Scott

    2014-01-01

    This EPI Policy Perspectives covers a presentation given at the European University Association Annual Convention (March 20, 2009, in Prague, Czech Republic) that addresses the Bologna process in the European Union. The process raised many questions regarding the role of the university, and the entire tertiary/postsecondary system of education.…

  4. New perspectives for European climate services: HORIZON2020

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruning, Claus; Tilche, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    The developing of new end-to-end climate services was one of the core priorities of 7th Framework for Research and Technological Development of the European Commission and will become one of the key strategic priorities of Societal Challenge 5 of HORIZON2020 (the new EU Framework Programme for Research and Innovation 2014-2020). Results should increase the competitiveness of European businesses, and the ability of regional and national authorities to make effective decisions in climate-sensitive sectors. In parallel, the production of new tailored climate information should strengthen the resilience of the European society to climate change. In this perspective the strategy to support and foster the underpinning science for climate services in HORIZON2020 will be presented.

  5. COMPARING MODEL RESULTS TO NATIONAL CLIMATE POLICY GOALS: RESULTS FROM THE ASIA MODELING EXERCISE

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Jiang, Kejun

    2012-12-01

    While the world has yet to adopt a single unified policy to limit climate change, many countries and regions have adopted energy and climate policies that have implications for global emissions. In this paper, we discuss a few key policies and how they are included in a set of 24 energy and integrated assessment models that participated in the Asia Modeling Exercise. We also compare results from these models for a small set of stylized scenarios to the pledges made as part of the Copenhagen Accord and the goals stated by the Major Economies Forum. We find that the targets outlined by the United States, the European Union, Japan, and Korea require significant policy action in most of the models analyzed. For most of the models in the study, however, the goals outlined by India are met without any climate policy. The stringency of climate policy required to meet China’s Copenhagen pledges varies across models and accounting methodologies.

  6. European Higher Education Policy and the Formation of Entrepreneurial Students as Future European Citizens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papatsiba, Vassiliki

    2009-01-01

    In this article, the author argues that European education policies and rhetoric are imbued with orthodoxy of agency and models of empowered, entrepreneurial actors, striving to surpass the limits of national boundaries. Free circulation of citizens has progressively underpinned a new construction of "the European", who is entrepreneurial,…

  7. Governing by Inspection? European Inspectorates and the Creation of a European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Lawn, Martin; Ozga, Jenny; Segerholm, Christina

    2013-01-01

    This paper draws on the first, completed phase of a research project on inspection as governing in three European inspection systems. The data presented here draw attention to the rather under-researched associational activities of European inspectorates and their developing practices of policy learning and exchange, and highlight their…

  8. Climate politics: Designing energy policy under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mitchell, Catherine

    2015-06-01

    Countries need to cut greenhouse-gas emissions from the energy sector if the world is to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But no one is sure of the best path. New research highlights the key uncertainties driving energy policy debate in the UK.

  9. Climate policy and dependence on traded carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andrew, Robbie M.; Davis, Steven J.; Peters, Glen P.

    2013-09-01

    A growing number of countries regulate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions occurring within their borders, but due to rapid growth in international trade, the products consumed in many of the same countries increasingly rely on coal, oil and gas extracted and burned in other countries where CO2 is not regulated. As a consequence, existing national and regional climate policies may be growing less effective every year. Furthermore, countries that are dependent on imported products or fossil fuels are more exposed to energy and climate policies in other countries. We show that the combined international trade in carbon (as fossil fuels and also embodied in products) increased from 12.3 GtCO2 (55% of global emissions) in 1997 to 17.6 GtCO2 (60%) in 2007 (growing at 3.7% yr-1). Within this, trade in fossil fuels was larger (10.8 GtCO2 in 2007) than trade in embodied carbon (6.9 GtCO2), but the latter grew faster (4.6% yr-1 compared with 3.1% yr-1 for fuels). Most major economies demonstrate increased dependence on traded carbon, either as exports or as imports. Because energy is increasingly embodied in internationally traded products, both as fossil fuels and as products, energy and climate policies in other countries may weaken domestic climate policy via carbon leakage and mask energy security issues.

  10. Regional climate model simulations indicate limited climatic impacts by operational and planned European wind farms.

    PubMed

    Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; Tobin, Isabelle; Bréon, François-Marie; Devezeaux de Lavergne, Jean-Guy; Colette, Augustin; Yiou, Pascal; Ruti, Paolo Michele

    2014-01-01

    The rapid development of wind energy has raised concerns about environmental impacts. Temperature changes are found in the vicinity of wind farms and previous simulations have suggested that large-scale wind farms could alter regional climate. However, assessments of the effects of realistic wind power development scenarios at the scale of a continent are missing. Here we simulate the impacts of current and near-future wind energy production according to European Union energy and climate policies. We use a regional climate model describing the interactions between turbines and the atmosphere, and find limited impacts. A statistically significant signal is only found in winter, with changes within ±0.3 °C and within 0-5% for precipitation. It results from the combination of local wind farm effects and changes due to a weak, but robust, anticyclonic-induced circulation over Europe. However, the impacts remain much weaker than the natural climate interannual variability and changes expected from greenhouse gas emissions. PMID:24518587

  11. ''Measuring the Costs of Climate Change Policies''

    SciTech Connect

    Montgomery, W. D.; Smith, A. E.; Biggar, S. L.; Bernstein, P.M.

    2003-05-09

    Studies of the costs of climate change policies have utilized a variety of measures or metrics for summarizing costs. The leading economic models have utilized GNP, GDP, the ''area under a marginal cost curve,'' the discounted present value of consumption, and a welfare measure taken directly from the utility function of the model's representative agent (the ''Equivalent Variation''). Even when calculated using a single model, these metrics do not necessarily give similar magnitudes of costs or even rank policies consistently. This paper discusses in non-technical terms the economic concepts lying behind each concept, the theoretical basis for expecting each measure to provide a consistent ranking of policies, and the reasons why different measures provide different rankings. It identifies a method of calculating the ''Equivalent Variation'' as theoretically superior to the other cost metrics in ranking policies. When regulators put forward new economic or regulatory policies, there is a need to compare the costs and benefits of these new policies to existing policies and other alternatives to determine which policy is most cost-effective. For command and control policies, it is quite difficult to compute costs, but for more market-based policies, economists have had a great deal of success employing general equilibrium models to assess a policy's costs. Not all cost measures, however, arrive at the same ranking. Furthermore, cost measures can produce contradictory results for a specific policy. These problems make it difficult for a policy-maker to determine the best policy. For a cost measures to be of value, one would like to be confident of two things. First one wants to be sure whether the policy is a winner or loser. Second, one wants to be confident that a measure produces the correct policy ranking. That is, one wants to have confidence in a policy measure's ability to correctly rank policies from most beneficial to most harmful. This paper analyzes

  12. [Major milestones for European pharmaceutical policy].

    PubMed

    Sauer, Fernand

    2014-01-01

    Under the 1985 White Paper on the completion of the single market, several pharmaceutical harmonisation measures were unanimously adopted, in favor of biotech products and on pricing transparency, legal status of prescription, wholesale distribution and advertising. The European pharmaceutical harmonisation was extended to Norway and Iceland, to new accession member states and through major international conferences with the US and Japan (ICH). Starting in 1995, the European medicines agency has produced an efficient marketing authorisation system for new human and veterinary medicines. The system was extended to pediatric medicines and advanced therapies. The monitoring of drug adverse effects (pharmacovigilance) has been gradually strengthened. PMID:25668913

  13. Evolution of climate niches in European mammals?

    PubMed

    Dormann, Carsten F; Gruber, Bernd; Winter, Marten; Herrmann, Dirk

    2010-04-23

    Our ability to predict consequences of climate change is severely impaired by the lack of knowledge on the ability of species to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We used distribution data for 140 mammal species in Europe, together with data on climate, land cover and topography, to derive a statistical description of their realized climate niche. We then compared climate niche overlap of pairs of species, selected on the basis of phylogenetic information. In contrast to expectations, related species were not similar in their climate niche. Rather, even species pairs that had a common ancestor less than 1 Ma already display very high climate niche distances. We interpret our finding as a strong interspecific competitive constraint on the realized niche, rather than a rapid evolution of the fundamental niche. If correct, our results imply a very limited usefulness of climate niche models for the prediction of future mammal distributions. PMID:19828492

  14. Optimal Climate Protection Policies Under Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weber, M.; Barth, V.; Hasselmann, K.; Hooss, G.

    A cost-benefit analysis for greenhouse warming based on a globally integrated cou- pled climate-macro economic cost model SIAM2 (Structural Integrated Assessment Model) is used to compute optimal paths of global CO2 emissions. The aim of the model is to minimize the net time-integrated sum of climate damage and mitigation costs (or maximize the economic and social welfare). The climate model is repre- sented by a nonlinear impulse-response model (NICCS) calibrated against a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model and a three-dimensional global carbon cycle model. The latest version of the economic module is based a macro economic growth model, which is designed to capture not only the interactions between cli- mate damages and economic development, but also the conflicting goals of individual firms and society (government). The model includes unemployment, limited fossil fuel resources, endogenous and stochastic exogenous technological development (unpre- dictable labor or fuel efficiency innovations of random impact amplitude at random points in time). One objective of the project is to examine optimal climate protection policies in the presence of uncertainty. A stochastic model is introduced to simulate the development of technology as well as climate change and climate damages. In re- sponse to this (stochastic) prediction, the fiscal policy is adjusted gradually in a series of discrete steps. The stochastic module includes probability-based methods, sensitiv- ity studies and formal szenario analysis.

  15. Comparative study on Climate Change Policies in the EU and China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bray, M.; Han, D.

    2012-04-01

    Both the EU and China are among the largest CO2 emitters in the world; their climate actions and policies have profound impacts on global climate change and may influence the activities in other countries. Evidence of climate change has been observed across Europe and China. Despite the many differences between the two regions, the European Commission and Chinese government support climate change actions. The EU has three priority areas in climate change: 1) understanding, monitoring and predicting climate change and its impact; 2) providing tools to analyse the effectiveness, cost and benefits of different policy options for mitigating climate change and adapting to its impacts; 3) improving, demonstrating and deploying existing climate friendly technologies and developing the technologies of the future. China is very vulnerable to climate change, because of its vast population, fast economic development, and fragile ecological environment. The priority policies in China are: 1) Carbon Trading Policy; 2) Financing Loan Policy (Special Funds for Renewable Energy Development); 3) Energy Efficiency Labelling Policy; 4) Subsidy Policy. In addition, China has formulated the "Energy Conservation Law", "Renewable Energy Law", "Cleaner Production Promotion Law" and "Circular Economy Promotion Law". Under the present EU Framework Programme FP7 there is a large number of funded research activities linked to climate change research. Current climate change research projects concentrate on the carbon cycle, water quality and availability, climate change predictors, predicting future climate and understanding past climates. Climate change-related scientific and technological projects in China are mostly carried out through national scientific and technological research programs. Areas under investigation include projections and impact of global climate change, the future trends of living environment change in China, countermeasures and supporting technologies of global

  16. National climate policies across Europe and their impacts on cities strategies.

    PubMed

    Heidrich, O; Reckien, D; Olazabal, M; Foley, A; Salvia, M; de Gregorio Hurtado, S; Orru, H; Flacke, J; Geneletti, D; Pietrapertosa, F; Hamann, J J-P; Tiwary, A; Feliu, E; Dawson, R J

    2016-03-01

    Globally, efforts are underway to reduce anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and to adapt to climate change impacts at the local level. However, there is a poor understanding of the relationship between city strategies on climate change mitigation and adaptation and the relevant policies at national and European level. This paper describes a comparative study and evaluation of cross-national policy. It reports the findings of studying the climate change strategies or plans from 200 European cities from Austria, Belgium, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Spain and the United Kingdom. The study highlights the shared responsibility of global, European, national, regional and city policies. An interpretation and illustration of the influences from international and national networks and policy makers in stimulating the development of local strategies and actions is proposed. It was found that there is no archetypical way of planning for climate change, and multiple interests and motivations are inevitable. Our research warrants the need for a multi-scale approach to climate policy in the future, mainly ensuring sufficient capacity and resource to enable local authorities to plan and respond to their specific climate change agenda for maximising the management potentials for translating environmental challenges into opportunities. PMID:26696604

  17. Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Friederike E. L.; Frame, David J.; Otto, Alexander; Allen, Myles R.

    2015-10-01

    The 'pledge and review' approach to reducing greenhouse-gas emissions presents an opportunity to link mitigation goals explicitly to the evolving climate response. This seems desirable because the progression from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's fourth to fifth assessment reports has seen little reduction in uncertainty. A common reaction to persistent uncertainties is to advocate mitigation policies that are robust even under worst-case scenarios, thereby focusing attention on upper extremes of both the climate response and the costs of impacts and mitigation, all of which are highly contestable. Here we ask whether those contributing to the formation of climate policies can learn from 'adaptive management' techniques. Recognizing that long-lived greenhouse gas emissions have to be net zero by the time temperatures reach a target stabilization level, such as 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, and anchoring commitments to an agreed index of attributable anthropogenic warming would provide a transparent approach to meeting such a temperature goal without prior consensus on the climate response.

  18. The role of the Gulf Stream in European climate.

    PubMed

    Palter, Jaime B

    2015-01-01

    The Gulf Stream carries the warm, poleward return flow of the wind-driven North Atlantic subtropical gyre and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This northward flow drives a significant meridional heat transport. Various lines of evidence suggest that Gulf Stream heat transport profoundly influences the climate of the entire Northern Hemisphere and, thus, Europe's climate on timescales of decades and longer. The Gulf Stream's influence is mediated through feedback processes between the ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere. This review synthesizes paleoclimate archives, model simulations, and the instrumental record, which collectively suggest that decadal and longer-scale variability of the Gulf Stream's heat transport manifests in changes in European temperature, precipitation, and storminess. Given that anthropogenic climate change is projected to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, associated changes in European climate are expected. However, large uncertainty in the magnitude of the anticipated weakening undermines the predictability of the future climate in Europe. PMID:25560606

  19. A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of Shared Climate Policy Assumptions

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Edmonds, James A.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Ebi, Kristie L.; Kram, Tom; Riahi, Keywan; Winkler, Harald; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    The paper presents the concept of shared climate policy assumptions as an important element of the new scenario framework. Shared climate policy assumptions capture key climate policy dimensions such as the type and scale of mitigation and adaptation measures. They are not specified in the socio-economic reference pathways, and therefore introduce an important third dimension to the scenario matrix architecture. Climate policy assumptions will have to be made in any climate policy scenario, and can have a significant impact on the scenario description. We conclude that a meaningful set of shared climate policy assumptions is useful for grouping individual climate policy analyses and facilitating their comparison. Shared climate policy assumptions should be designed to be policy relevant, and as a set to be broad enough to allow a comprehensive exploration of the climate change scenario space.

  20. Climate change adaptation strategies and mitigation policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Fernández, Cristina

    2015-04-01

    The pace of climate change and the consequent warming of the Earth's surface is increasing vulnerability and decreasing adaptive capacity. Achieving a successful adaptation depends on the development of technology, institutional organization, financing availability and the exchange of information. Populations living in arid and semi-arid zones, low-lying coastal areas, land with water shortages or at risk of overflow or small islands are particularly vulnerable to climate change. Due to increasing population density in sensitive areas, some regions have become more vulnerable to events such as storms, floods and droughts, like the river basins and coastal plains. Human activities have fragmented and increased the vulnerability of ecosystems, which limit both, their natural adaptation and the effectiveness of the measures adopted. Adaptation means to carry out the necessary modifications for society to adapt to new climatic conditions in order to reduce their vulnerability to climate change. Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) and to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or face the consequences. Adaptation reduces the adverse impacts of climate change and enhance beneficial impacts, but will not prevent substantial cost that are produced by all damages. The performances require adaptation actions. These are defined and implemented at national, regional or local levels since many of the impacts and vulnerabilities depend on the particular economic, geographic and social circumstances of each country or region. We will present some adaptation strategies at national and local level and revise some cases of its implementation in several vulnerable areas. However, adaptation to climate change must be closely related to mitigation policies because the degree of change planned in different climatic variables is a function of the concentration levels that are achieved

  1. Atlantic Ocean forcing of North American and European summer climate.

    PubMed

    Sutton, Rowan T; Hodson, Daniel L R

    2005-07-01

    Recent extreme events such as the devastating 2003 European summer heat wave raise important questions about the possible causes of any underlying trends, or low-frequency variations, in regional climates. Here, we present new evidence that basin-scale changes in the Atlantic Ocean, probably related to the thermohaline circulation, have been an important driver of multidecadal variations in the summertime climate of both North America and western Europe. Our findings advance understanding of past climate changes and also have implications for decadal climate predictions. PMID:15994552

  2. Agreeing to disagree on climate policy

    PubMed Central

    Heal, Geoffrey M.; Millner, Antony

    2014-01-01

    Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate—the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time—are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus “correct” value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a “representative” rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics. PMID:24567383

  3. Agreeing to disagree on climate policy.

    PubMed

    Heal, Geoffrey M; Millner, Antony

    2014-03-11

    Disagreements about the value of the utility discount rate--the rate at which our concern for the welfare of future people declines with their distance from us in time--are at the heart of the debate about the appropriate intensity of climate policy. Seemingly small differences in the discount rate yield very different policy prescriptions, and no consensus "correct" value has been identified. We argue that the choice of discount rate is an ethical primitive: there are many different legitimate opinions as to its value, and none should receive a privileged place in economic analysis of climate policy. Rather, we advocate a social choice-based approach in which a diverse set of individual discount rates is aggregated into a "representative" rate. We show that performing this aggregation efficiently leads to a time-dependent discount rate that declines monotonically to the lowest rate in the population. We apply this discounting scheme to calculations of the social cost of carbon recently performed by the US government and show that it provides an attractive compromise between competing ethical positions, and thus provides a possible resolution to the ethical impasse in climate change economics. PMID:24567383

  4. Global climate change: Policy implications for fisheries

    SciTech Connect

    Gucinski, H.; Lackey, R.T.; Spence, B.C.

    1990-01-01

    Several government agencies are evaluating policy options for addressing global climate change. These include planning for anticipated effects and developing mitigation options where feasible if climate does change as predicted. For fisheries resources, policy questions address effects on international, national, and regional scales. Climate change variables expected to affect inland and offshore fisheries include temperature rise, changes in the hydrologic cycle, alterations in nutrient fluxes, and reduction and relocation of spawning and nursery habitat. These variables will affect resources at all levels of biological organization, including the genetic, organism, population, and ecosystem levels. In this context, changes in primary productivity, species composition in the food-web, migration, invasions, synchrony in biological cycles, shifts in utilization of niches, and problems of larvae entrainment in estuaries have been identified. Maintaining ecosystem robustness (i.e., high biodiversity) is another component of the problem. Action requires establishing priorities for information needs, determining appropriate temporal and spatial scales at which to model effects, and accounting for interactive changes in physical and biological cycles. A policy response can be derived when these results are integrated with social needs and human population constraints.

  5. European Perspectives on Global Climate Change.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kempton, Willett; Craig, Paul P.

    1993-01-01

    Explores why some European countries are much more eager than the United States to endorse international environmental treaties and the roles history, culture, economics, and geography play. Influential policymakers throughout Austria, Germany, Sweden, and the United Kingdom are interviewed. (12 references) (Author/MCO)

  6. Impact of climate change on European weather extremes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duchez, Aurelie; Forryan, Alex; Hirschi, Joel; Sinha, Bablu; New, Adrian; Freychet, Nicolas; Scaife, Adam; Graham, Tim

    2015-04-01

    An emerging science consensus is that global climate change will result in more extreme weather events with concomitant increasing financial losses. Key questions that arise are: Can an upward trend in natural extreme events be recognised and predicted at the European scale? What are the key drivers within the climate system that are changing and making extreme weather events more frequent, more intense, or both? Using state-of-the-art coupled climate simulations from the UK Met Office (HadGEM3-GC2, historical and future scenario runs) as well as reanalysis data, we highlight the potential of the currently most advanced forecasting systems to progress understanding of the causative drivers of European weather extremes, and assess future frequency and intensity of extreme weather under various climate change scenarios. We characterize European extremes in these simulations using a subset of the 27 core indices for temperature and precipitation from The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (Tank et al., 2009). We focus on temperature and precipitation extremes (e.g. extremes in daily and monthly precipitation and temperatures) and relate them to the atmospheric modes of variability over Europe in order to establish the large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that are conducive to the occurrence of extreme precipitation and temperature events. Klein Tank, Albert M.G., and Francis W. Zwiers. Guidelines on Analysis of Extremes in a Changing Climate in Support of Informed Decisions for Adaptation. WMO-TD No. 1500. Climate Data and Monitoring. World Meteorological Organization, 2009.

  7. Terminology of European Education and Training Policy: A Selection of 130 Key Terms. Second Edition

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cedefop - European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training, 2014

    2014-01-01

    This multilingual glossary defines 130 key terms used in European education and training policy. It is an extended and updated version of "Terminology of European education and training policy" (2008) and "Terminology of vocational training policy" (2004). It considers new priorities of European union policy, mainly in skills…

  8. Climate policy implications for agricultural water demand

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.; Calvin, Katherine V.

    2013-03-01

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of two alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which taxes terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which only taxes fossil fuel and industrial emissions but places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to almost triple demand for water for agricultural systems across the century even in the absence of climate policy. In general policies to mitigate climate change increase agricultural demands for water still further, though the largest changes occur in the second half of the century, under both policy regimes. The two policies examined profoundly affected both the sources and magnitudes of the increase in irrigation water demands. The largest increases in agricultural irrigation water demand occurred in scenarios where only fossil fuel emissions were priced (but not land-use change emission) and were primarily driven by rapid expansion in bioenergy production. In these scenarios water demands were large relative to present-day total available water, calling into question whether it would be physically possible to produce the associated biomass energy. We explored the potential of improved

  9. Educational Research Policy in European Countries. 1973 Survey.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council of Europe, Strasbourg (France). Documentation Center for Education in Europe.

    A report on research policy in 16 European countries commends itself to the attention of those research directors and civil servants who are concerned with planning, coordinating, and utilizing educational research to improve the educational system. An analysis of the 16 reports touches briefly on contemporary educational problems, sources for the…

  10. Indicators for European Union Policies. Business as Usual?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Saltelli, Andrea; D'Hombres, Beatrice; Jesinghaus, Jochen; Manca, Anna Rita; Mascherini, Massimiliano; Nardo, Michela; Saisana, Michaela

    2011-01-01

    This paper looks at the role of "statistics-based knowledge" in the making of EU policy. We highlight "shortcomings" in the use of statistical indicators made in the course of the Lisbon strategy, ended in 2010. In our opinion the shortcomings are: (i) The paradox of the "coexistence" within the same European Commission of "two holistic…

  11. The Education Lending Policy of the European Investment Bank

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tuijnman, Albert

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to present the latest Education Lending Policy (ELP) of the European Investment Bank (EIB), adopted by the Board of Governors in 2008. It is structured in two parts. The first briefly presents the EIB in general and the evolution of its education lending portfolio in particular. This sets the stage for the second…

  12. The Copernicus programme and its Climate Change Service (C3S): a European answer to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pinty, Bernard; Thepaut, Jean-Noel; Dee, Dick

    2016-07-01

    In November 2014, The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) signed an agreement with the European Commission to deliver two of the Copernicus Earth Observation Programme Services on the Commission's behalf. The ECMWF delivered services - the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) - will bring a consistent standard to how we measure and predict atmospheric conditions and climate change. They will maximise the potential of past, current and future earth observations - ground, ocean, airborne, satellite - and analyse these to monitor and predict atmospheric conditions and in the future, climate change. With the wealth of free and open data that the services provide, they will help business users to assess the impact of their business decisions and make informed choices, delivering a more energy efficient and climate aware economy. These sound investment decisions now will not only stimulate growth in the short term, but reduce the impact of climate change on the economy and society in the future. C3S is in its proof of concept phase and through its climate data store will provide global and regional climate data reanalyses; multi-model seasonal forecasts; customisable visual data to enable examination of wide range of scenarios and model the impact of changes; access to all the underlying data, including climate data records from various satellite and in-situ observations. In addition, C3S will provide key indicators on climate change drivers (such as carbon dioxide) and impacts (such as reducing glaciers). The aim of these indicators will be to support European adaptation and mitigation policies in a number of economic sectors. The presentation will provide an overview of this newly created Service, its various components and activities, and a roadmap towards achieving a fully operational European Climate Service at the horizon 2019-2020. It will focus on the requirements for quality-assured Observation

  13. Key challenges and priorities for modelling European grasslands under climate change.

    PubMed

    Kipling, Richard P; Virkajärvi, Perttu; Breitsameter, Laura; Curnel, Yannick; De Swaef, Tom; Gustavsson, Anne-Maj; Hennart, Sylvain; Höglind, Mats; Järvenranta, Kirsi; Minet, Julien; Nendel, Claas; Persson, Tomas; Picon-Cochard, Catherine; Rolinski, Susanne; Sandars, Daniel L; Scollan, Nigel D; Sebek, Leon; Seddaiu, Giovanna; Topp, Cairistiona F E; Twardy, Stanislaw; Van Middelkoop, Jantine; Wu, Lianhai; Bellocchi, Gianni

    2016-10-01

    Grassland-based ruminant production systems are integral to sustainable food production in Europe, converting plant materials indigestible to humans into nutritious food, while providing a range of environmental and cultural benefits. Climate change poses significant challenges for such systems, their productivity and the wider benefits they supply. In this context, grassland models have an important role in predicting and understanding the impacts of climate change on grassland systems, and assessing the efficacy of potential adaptation and mitigation strategies. In order to identify the key challenges for European grassland modelling under climate change, modellers and researchers from across Europe were consulted via workshop and questionnaire. Participants identified fifteen challenges and considered the current state of modelling and priorities for future research in relation to each. A review of literature was undertaken to corroborate and enrich the information provided during the horizon scanning activities. Challenges were in four categories relating to: 1) the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the sward 2) climate change effects on grassland systems outputs 3) mediation of climate change impacts by site, system and management and 4) cross-cutting methodological issues. While research priorities differed between challenges, an underlying theme was the need for accessible, shared inventories of models, approaches and data, as a resource for stakeholders and to stimulate new research. Developing grassland models to effectively support efforts to tackle climate change impacts, while increasing productivity and enhancing ecosystem services, will require engagement with stakeholders and policy-makers, as well as modellers and experimental researchers across many disciplines. The challenges and priorities identified are intended to be a resource 1) for grassland modellers and experimental researchers, to stimulate the development of new research

  14. Political Strategies and Language Policies: The European Union Lisbon Strategy and Its Implications for the EU's Language and Multilingualism Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Krzyzanowski, Michal; Wodak, Ruth

    2011-01-01

    This paper explores the interplay between the politics and policies of multilingualism by looking at the role of political macro-strategies in shaping language and multilingualism policies within the European Union. The paper focuses on the relationship between the European Union's 2000-2010 Lisbon Strategy on the European Knowledge-Based Economy…

  15. Impact of soil properties for European climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillod, B. P.; Davin, E. L.; Kündig, C.; Smiatek, G.; Seneviratne, S. I.

    2012-04-01

    Soil properties have a strong influence on the terrestrial water cycle, in particular by influencing soil water distribution and dynamics. This in turn affects evapotranspiration from the land to the atmosphere and thus climate conditions. While many studies have looked at the climatic influence of vegetation characteristics/land cover change, fewer investigated the importance of soil properties for climate, although soil properties can also be indirectly altered by land use changes. In this study, we investigate the influence of soil properties on the European climate using a regional climate model. First, two simulations using two different soil maps are investigated: the soil map of the world from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) and the European Soil Database (ESDB) from the European Commission Joint Research Center (JRC). These simulations highlight the importance of the specified soil texture in summer, with differences of up to 2°C in mean 2-meter temperature and 20% in precipitation due to changes in the partitioning of energy at the land surface into sensible and latent heat flux. In an additional set of experiments, we modify different sets of soil physical parameters to evaluate their relative importance. Hydraulic diffusivity as well as field capacity and plant wilting point are shown to play an important role, unlike hydraulic conductivity. We highlight the importance of the vertical profile of soil moisture for evapotranspiration as it impacts soil moisture dynamics. Our study highlights the importance of soil texture and related parameters for climate simulations. Given the uncertainty associated with the geographical distribution of soil texture, efforts to improve existing databases and their integration in climate and hydrological models are needed. Tackling unresolved issues in land-surface modeling related to the high variability of soil parameters, both spatially and within a soil textural class, would benefit a large community and

  16. International and European law on protected areas and climate change: need for adaptation or implementation?

    PubMed

    Cliquet, A

    2014-10-01

    The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future. PMID:24390082

  17. International and European Law on Protected Areas and Climate Change: Need for Adaptation or Implementation?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cliquet, A.

    2014-10-01

    The protection and management of protected areas must be adapted to the effects of climate change. An important question is if the law on protected areas is capable of dealing with the required changes. In general, both international nature conventions and European Union nature conservation law do not contain any specific provisions on climate change and protected areas. Attention has been paid to this link in non-binding decisions and policy documents. In order to adapt the law to increased dynamics from climate change, more flexibility is needed. This flexibility should not be understood as "legal" flexibility, in the sense of the weakening nature conservation provisions. Scientific uncertainties on the effects of climate change might conflict with the need for legal certainties. In order to adapt to the effects of climate change, the two crucial elements are the strengthening of core protected areas and connectivity between the core areas. At the international level, both elements can be found in non-binding documents. International law enables the required adaptation; however, it often lacks concrete obligations. A stronger legal framework can be found at the level of the European Union. The Birds and Habitats Directives contain sufficient tools to deal with the effects of climate change. The Directives have been insufficiently implemented so far. Especially the central goals of reaching a favorable conservation status and connectivity measures need to be addressed much more in the future.

  18. European scale climate information services for water use sectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Donnelly, Chantal; Strömbäck, Lena; Capell, René; Ludwig, Fulco

    2015-09-01

    This study demonstrates a climate information service for pan-European water use sectors that are vulnerable to climate change induced hydrological changes, including risk and safety (disaster preparedness), agriculture, energy (hydropower and cooling water use for thermoelectric power) and environment (water quality). To study the climate change impacts we used two different hydrological models forced with an ensemble of bias-corrected general circulation model (GCM) output for both the lowest (2.6) and highest (8.5) representative concentration pathways (RCP). Selected indicators of water related vulnerability for each sector were then calculated from the hydrological model results. Our results show a distinct north-south divide in terms of climate change impacts; in the south the water availability will reduce while in the north water availability will increase. Across different climate models precipitation and streamflow increase in northern Europe and decrease in southern Europe, but the latitude at which this change occurs varies depending on the GCM. Hydrological extremes are increasing over large parts of Europe. The agricultural sector will be affected by reduced water availability (in the south) and increased drought. Both streamflow and soil moistures droughts are projected to increase in most parts of Europe except in northern Scandinavia and the Alps. The energy sector will be affected by lower hydropower potential in most European countries and reduced cooling water availability due to higher water temperatures and reduced summer river flows. Our results show that in particular in the Mediterranean the pressures are high because of increasing drought which will have large impacts on both the agriculture and energy sectors. In France and Italy this is combined with increased flood hazards. Our results show important impacts of climate change on European water use sectors indicating a clear need for adaptation.

  19. Potential Impacts of Climatic Change on European Breeding Birds

    PubMed Central

    Huntley, Brian; Collingham, Yvonne C.; Willis, Stephen G.; Green, Rhys E.

    2008-01-01

    Background Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions. Methodology/Principal Findings For six climate scenarios for 2070–99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258–882 km in a direction between 341° (NNW) and 45° (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72–89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31–53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50×50 km grid square would decrease by 6·8–23·2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change. Conclusions/Significance Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here. PMID:18197250

  20. The Role of Marketization in the Europeanization of Defense Industry Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Britz, Malena

    2010-01-01

    European integration has increased to encompass security-related policies. One such policy is defense industry policy, which traditionally has been a national concern rooted in defense and security policy. Efforts have been made since the 1990s to create a European defense industry market. However, there have been different ideas of how this goal…

  1. Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic Climate Change: Science and Policy in the Arctic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bigras, S. C.

    2009-12-01

    It is an accepted fact that the Earth’s climate is warming. Recent research has demonstrated the direct links between the Arctic regions and the rest of the planet. We have become more aware that these regions are feeling the effects of global climate change more intensely than anywhere else on Earth -- and that they are fast becoming the new frontiers for resources and political disputes. This paper examines some of the potential climate change impacts in the Arctic and how the science of climate change can be used to develop policies that will help mitigate some of these impacts. Despite the growing body of research we do not yet completely understand the potential consequences of climate change in the Arctic. Climate models predict significant changes and impacts on the northern physical environment and renewable resources, and on the communities and societies that depend on them. Policies developed and implemented as a result of the research findings will be designed to help mitigate some of the more serious consequences. Given the importance of cost in making policy decisions, the financial implications of different scenarios will need to be considered. The Arctic Ocean Basin is a complex and diverse environment shared by five Arctic states. Cooperation among the states surrounding the Arctic Ocean is often difficult, as each country has its own political and social agenda. Northerners and indigenous peoples should be engaged and able to influence the direction of northern adaptation policies. Along with climate change, the Arctic environment and Arctic residents face many other challenges, among them safe resource development. Resource development in the Arctic has always been a controversial issue, seen by some as a solution to high unemployment and by others as an unacceptably disruptive and destructive force. Its inherent risks need to be considered: there are needs for adaptation, for management frameworks, for addressing cumulative effects, and for

  2. European Master-Doctorate Course on "Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change"

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lefèvre, R.-A.

    2009-04-01

    « Vulnerability of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change », European Master-Doctorate Course, Council of Europe, Strasbourg 7-11 September 2009 The character of Cultural Heritage is closely related to the climate, and the urban landscape and the built heritage have been designed with the local climate in mind. The stability of Cultural Heritage is, therefore, closely tied to its interactions with the ground and the atmosphere. Climate Change is thus expected to have either catastrophic or subtle effects on Cultural Heritage materials and Cultural Landscapes. The major aim of the 2009 Strasbourg Course is to ensure that young European students are informed on these important problems and will be able in the future to undertake rigorous ongoing scientific monitoring of changes in conditions of Cultural Heritage. The Programme of the Course will cover the following topics: • Heritage Climatology • Principles of Mitigation and Adaptation of Cultural Heritage to Climate Change • Impact of Climate Change on building structures • Dose-Response and Damage Functions for materials in a Changing Climate • Modelling sea salts transport and deposition • Modelling wetting and drying of historic buildings • Impact of Climate Change on building materials: stone, mortar, modern glass, stained glass windows • Impact of Climate Change on organic materials • Biological impact of Climate Change on Cultural Heritage • Sea level rise models and possible application to Cultural Heritage • Past, present and future for Venice • The policies and action plans of International Organisations (Council of Europe, UNESCO, ICCROM) The Course is addressed to young people with scientific background: physicists, chemists, geologists, biologists, engineers, because of the high scientific level of the background required to follow the lectures. Teaching will be delivered in English without any simultaneous translation. The teachers belong to European Universities, National

  3. Co-benefits of air quality and climate change policies on air quality of the Mediterranean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pozzoli, Luca; Mert Gokturk, Ozan; Unal, Alper; Kindap, Tayfun; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet

    2015-04-01

    The Mediterranean basin is one of the regions of the world where significant impacts due to climate changes are predicted to occur in the future. Observations and model simulations are used to provide to the policy makers scientifically based estimates of the necessity to adjust national emission reductions needed to achieve air quality objectives in the context of a changing climate, which is not only driven by GHGs, but also by short lived climate pollutants, such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols. There is an increasing interest and need to design cost-benefit emission reduction strategies, which could improve both regional air quality and global climate change. In this study we used the WRF-CMAQ air quality modelling system to quantify the contribution of anthropogenic emissions to ozone and particulate matter concentrations in Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean and to understand how this contribution could change in different future scenarios. We have investigated four different future scenarios for year 2050 defined during the European Project CIRCE: a "business as usual" scenario (BAU) where no or just actual measures are taken into account; an "air quality" scenario (BAP) which implements the National Emission Ceiling directive 2001/81/EC member states of the European Union (EU-27); a "climate change" scenario (CC) which implements global climate policies decoupled from air pollution policies; and an "integrated air quality and climate policy" scenario (CAP) which explores the co-benefit of global climate and EU-27 air pollution policies. The BAP scenario largely decreases summer ozone concentrations over almost the entire continent, while the CC and CAP scenarios similarly determine lower decreases in summer ozone but extending all over the Mediterranean, the Middle East countries and Russia. Similar patterns are found for winter PM concentrations; BAP scenario improves pollution levels only in the Western EU countries, and the CAP scenario determines

  4. An Age of Learning: Vocational Training Policy at European Level. CEDEFOP Vocational Training Policy Report, 2000.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bainbridge, Steve; Murray, Julie

    This document, which is intended to stimulate debate among vocational education researchers, policymakers, and practitioners, provides a comprehensive overview of the development of vocational training policy at the European level over the past 40 years. The following are among the topics discussed in the document's eight chapters: (1) moving from…

  5. Impact assessment and policy learning in the European Commission

    SciTech Connect

    Ruddy, Thomas F. Hilty, Lorenz M.

    2008-02-15

    Governance for sustainable development requires policy coherence and Environmental Policy Integration, which are being hindered by difficulties coordinating the two separate impact assessment processes being conducted in the European Commission. One of them, the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process, looks primarily at EU-internal impacts, whereas the other one, Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) in DG Trade, looks outward to other countries and intergovernmental organizations. Ideally, the two processes should complement one another, especially as the two are set to continue being done in parallel. The paper uses a case study of the reform of the European sugar regime under a World Trade Organization ruling to demonstrate how the two impact assessment processes could better complement one another. Feedback from the experience had with existing trade agreements could then promote policy learning and inform the negotiations on new agreements. The number of new bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements is expected to continue rising, thus increasing the importance of the Commission-wide Impact Assessment process required for them.

  6. 2500 Years of European Climate Variability and Human Susceptibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Büntgen, Ulf; Tegel, Willy; Nicolussi, Kurt; McCormick, Michael; Frank, David; Trouet, Valerie; Kaplan, Jed O.; Herzig, Franz; Heussner, Karl-Uwe; Wanner, Heinz; Luterbacher, Jürg; Esper, Jan

    2011-02-01

    Climate variations influenced the agricultural productivity, health risk, and conflict level of preindustrial societies. Discrimination between environmental and anthropogenic impacts on past civilizations, however, remains difficult because of the paucity of high-resolution paleoclimatic evidence. We present tree ring-based reconstructions of central European summer precipitation and temperature variability over the past 2500 years. Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration. Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and medieval prosperity. Increased climate variability from ~250 to 600 C.E. coincided with the demise of the western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period. Such historical data may provide a basis for counteracting the recent political and fiscal reluctance to mitigate projected climate change.

  7. Climate Change Impairs Nitrogen Cycling in European Beech Forests.

    PubMed

    Dannenmann, Michael; Bimüller, Carolin; Gschwendtner, Silvia; Leberecht, Martin; Tejedor, Javier; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche, Rainer; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz

    2016-01-01

    European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here

  8. Climate Change Impairs Nitrogen Cycling in European Beech Forests

    PubMed Central

    Dannenmann, Michael; Bilela, Silvija; Gasche, Rainer; Hanewinkel, Marc; Baltensweiler, Andri; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid; Polle, Andrea; Schloter, Michael; Simon, Judy; Rennenberg, Heinz

    2016-01-01

    European beech forests growing on marginal calcareous soils have been proposed to be vulnerable to decreased soil water availability. This could result in a large-scale loss of ecological services and economical value in a changing climate. In order to evaluate the potential consequences of this drought-sensitivity, we investigated potential species range shifts for European beech forests on calcareous soil in the 21st century by statistical species range distribution modelling for present day and projected future climate conditions. We found a dramatic decline by 78% until 2080. Still the physiological or biogeochemical mechanisms underlying the drought sensitivity of European beech are largely unknown. Drought sensitivity of beech is commonly attributed to plant physiological constraints. Furthermore, it has also been proposed that reduced soil water availability could promote nitrogen (N) limitation of European beech due to impaired microbial N cycling in soil, but this hypothesis has not yet been tested. Hence we investigated the influence of simulated climate change (increased temperatures, reduced soil water availability) on soil gross microbial N turnover and plant N uptake in the beech-soil interface of a typical mountainous beech forest stocking on calcareous soil in SW Germany. For this purpose, triple 15N isotope labelling of intact beech seedling-soil-microbe systems was combined with a space-for-time climate change experiment. We found that nitrate was the dominant N source for beech natural regeneration. Reduced soil water content caused a persistent decline of ammonia oxidizing bacteria and therefore, a massive attenuation of gross nitrification rates and nitrate availability in the soil. Consequently, nitrate and total N uptake of beech seedlings were strongly reduced so that impaired growth of beech seedlings was observed already after one year of exposure to simulated climatic change. We conclude that the N cycle in this ecosystem and here

  9. Impact of soil map specifications for European climate simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guillod, Benoit P.; Davin, Edouard L.; Kündig, Christine; Smiatek, Gerhard; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2013-01-01

    Soil physical characteristics can influence terrestrial hydrology and the energy balance and may thus affect land-atmosphere exchanges. However, only few studies have investigated the importance of soil textures for climate. In this study, we examine the impact of soil texture specification in a regional climate model. We perform climate simulations over Europe using soil maps derived from two different sources: the soil map of the world from the Food and Agricultural Organization and the European Soil Database from the European Commission Joint Research Center. These simulations highlight the importance of the specified soil texture in summer, with differences of up to 2 °C in mean 2-m temperature and 20 % in precipitation resulting from changes in the partitioning of energy at the land surface into sensible and latent heat flux. Furthermore, we perform additional simulations where individual soil parameters are perturbed in order to understand their role for summer climate. These simulations highlight the importance of the vertical profile of soil moisture for evapotranspiration. Parameters affecting the latter are hydraulic diffusivity parameters, field capacity and plant wilting point. Our study highlights the importance of soil properties for climate simulations. Given the uncertainty associated with the geographical distribution of soil texture and the resulting differences between maps from different sources, efforts to improve existing databases are needed. In addition, climate models would benefit from tackling unresolved issues in land-surface modeling related to the high spatial variability in soil parameters, both horizontally and vertically, and to limitations of the concept of soil textural class.

  10. Using a social justice and health framework to assess European climate change adaptation strategies.

    PubMed

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-12-01

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents. PMID:25464133

  11. Using a Social Justice and Health Framework to Assess European Climate Change Adaptation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    Boeckmann, Melanie; Zeeb, Hajo

    2014-01-01

    Climate change puts pressure on existing health vulnerabilities through higher frequency of extreme weather events, changes in disease vector distribution or exacerbated air pollution. Climate change adaptation policies may hold potential to reduce societal inequities. We assessed the role of public health and social justice in European climate change adaptation using a three-fold approach: a document analysis, a critical discourse analysis of a subgroup of strategies, and a ranking of strategies against our social justice framework. The ranking approach favored planning that includes various adaptation types, social issues and infrastructure changes. Themes on values identified in the five subgroup documents showed that risks are perceived as contradictory, technology is viewed as savior, responsibilities need to be negotiated, and social justice is advocated by only a few countries. Of 21 strategy documents assessed overall, those from Austria, England and Sweden received the highest scores in the ranking. Our qualitative assessment showed that in European adaptation planning, progress could still be made through community involvement into adaptation decisions, consistent consideration of social and demographic determinants, and a stronger link between infrastructural adaptation and the health sector. Overall, a social justice framework can serve as an evaluation guideline for adaptation policy documents. PMID:25464133

  12. Stating the Obvious: The European Qualifications Framework is "Not" a Neutral Evidence-Based Policy Tool

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cort, Pia

    2010-01-01

    In European Union policy documents, the European Qualifications Framework (EQF) is described as a neutral tool embedded in an evidence-based policy process. Its purpose is to improve the transparency, comparability and portability of qualifications in the European Union. The aim of this article is to denaturalise the EQF discourse through a…

  13. Active sonar, beaked whales and European regional policy.

    PubMed

    Dolman, Sarah J; Evans, Peter G H; Notarbartolo-di-Sciara, Giuseppe; Frisch, Heidrun

    2011-01-01

    Various reviews, resolutions and guidance from international and regional fora have been produced in recent years that acknowledge the significance of marine noise and its potential impacts on cetaceans. Within Europe, ACCOBAMS and ASCOBANS have shown increasing attention to the issue. The literature highlights concerns surrounding the negative impacts of active sonar on beaked whales in particular, where concerns primarily relate to the use of mid-frequency active sonar (1-10kHz), as used particularly in military exercises. The authors review the efforts that European regional policies have undertaken to acknowledge and manage possible negative impacts of active sonar and how these might assist the transition from scientific research to policy implementation, including effective management and mitigation measures at a national level. PMID:20451221

  14. Accessing European Climate Data Through The Internet - The Ecd Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Wel, F. J. M.; Agersten, S.

    The EUMETNET/ECSN Climate Data Set is a joint effort of KNMI and DNMI to disseminate European climate data since 1900 through the Internet. It concerns tem- perature, precipitation and atmospheric pressure data on a daily basis, attended by as much metadata as possible. This metadata relates to characteristics of the surround- ings of the observation station (location, height, land use) as well as to the quality of the measurements. Originally, ECD could be considered a technological extension to the European Cli- mate Assessment project, but now it pursues an ongoing effort to make updated data sets accessible for a wide range of users. Therefore, a JAVA application has been developed in order to browse online through the time series and to extract specific in- formation content according to a predefined set of queries. Results can be downloaded and used offline in climatological (GIS) applications. ECD should finish in May 2002 and result in a comprehensive database that could be part of a European network of data services as proposed by the UNIDART project (http://www.dwd.de/UNIDART).

  15. Policy assessments to enhance EU scientific advice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kowarsch, Martin

    2016-01-01

    The European Commission needs to amend its new Scientific Advice Mechanism. Highly integrated, participatory assessments of policy alternatives are required for multidimensional, value-laden policy issues such as the European Union's climate and energy policies.

  16. The European "We": From Citizenship Policy to the Role of Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olson, Maria

    2012-01-01

    This article sheds light on the European Union's policy on citizenship; on the collective dimension of this policy, its "we". It is argued that the inclusive, identity-constituting forces prominent in EU policy on European citizenship serve as a basis for the exclusion of people, which is illustrated by the recent expulsion of Romani from France.…

  17. Policies and Networks in the Construction of the European Higher Education Area

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lavdas, Kostas A.; Papadakis, Nikos E.; Gidarakou, Marrianna

    2006-01-01

    Within the European Union, issues of comparability and compatibility regarding higher education policy are defined by new challenges, while interest politics increasingly affect the actions and the discursive practices that constitute both the new European Higher Education Policy Area and its relation to other crucial public policies (economic,…

  18. Taming the Beast: Policy-based Solutions for Addressing Corporate Interference in Climate Policy Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grifo, F.

    2012-12-01

    Inappropriate corporate influence in science-based policy has been a persistent problem in the United States across multiple issue areas and through many administrations. Interference in climate change policy has been especially pervasive in recent years, with tremendous levels of corporate resources being utilized to spread misinformation on climate science and reduce and postpone regulatory action. Much of the influence exerted by these forces is concealed from public view. Better corporate disclosure laws would reveal who is influencing climate policy to policy makers, investors, and the public. Greater transparency in the political activity of corporate actors is needed to shed light on who is responsible for the misinformation campaigns clouding the discussion around climate change in the United States. Such transparency will empower diverse stakeholders to hold corporations accountable. Specific federal policy reforms can be made in order to guide the nation down a path of greater corporate accountability in climate change policy efforts.

  19. Visualisation and communication of probabilistic climate forecasts to renewable-energy policy makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steffen, Sophie; Lowe, Rachel; Davis, Melanie; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco J.; Rodó, Xavier

    2014-05-01

    Despite the strong dependence on weather and climate variability of the renewable-energy industry, and the existence of several initiatives towards demonstrating the added benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts into energy decision-making processes, weather and climate forecasts are still under-utilised within the sector. Improved communication is fundamental to stimulate the use of climate forecast information within decision-making processes, in order to adapt to a highly climate dependent renewable-energy industry. This work focuses on improving the visualisation of climate forecast information, paying special attention to seasonal time scales. This activity is central to enhance climate services for renewable energy and to optimise the usefulness and usability of inherently complex climate information. In the realm of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) initiative, and subsequent European projects: Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Service (SPECS) and the European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessment in Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS), this paper investigates the visualisation and communication of seasonal forecasts with regards to their usefulness and usability, to enable the development of a European climate service. The target end user is the group of renewable-energy policy makers, who are central to enhance climate services for the energy industry. The overall objective is to promote the wide-range dissemination and exchange of actionable climate information based on seasonal forecasts from Global Producing Centres (GPCs). It examines the existing main barriers and deficits. Examples of probabilistic climate forecasts from different GPC's are used to make a catalogue of current approaches, to assess their advantages and limitations and, finally, to recommend better alternatives. Interviews have been conducted with renewable-energy stakeholders to receive feedback for the

  20. Energy policies, liberalization and the framing of climate change policies in India

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cherian, Anilla

    Global climate change has emerged a new environmental issue affecting developing countries particularly after the signing of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in June 1992. This dissertation focuses on the factors which motivate Indian responses to global climate change at the international level. The study evaluates the relative impacts of two policy frames in the formulation of India's national climate change policy stance. The concept of "policy frames" refers to the idea that the definition of, and responses to a particular problem are constructed in terms of another more pressing and salient policy concern. A "policy frame" is an analytically constructed policy filter comprised of key, identifiable, policy features and existing resource constraints in a sector. The study traces the evolution of national energy (coal power and renewable energy) and environment sector policies under centralized planning based on a survey of a series of Five Year Plans (1970-1997). Characteristic sectoral policies are identified as constituting an "energy-related development policy frame" and an "environment-related development policy frame" under two distinct phases of national economic development--a managed economy and a liberalized economy. The study demonstrates that the 1991 shift towards phased economic liberalization resulted not only in a new set of energy (coal, power and renewable energy) policies and consequently an altered energy policy frame, but also in a largely unchanged set of environmental sector policies and consequently only a marginally altered environmental policy frame. The study demonstrates that the post-1991 energy policy changes together with existing energy resource constraints, constitute the dominant policy frame driving both the formulation of Indian policy stances at international climate change negotiations and also Indian responsiveness to coal, power, renewable energy, and climate change projects funded by the World Bank

  1. Agricultural pollution control under Spanish and European environmental policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    MartíNez, Yolanda; Albiac, José

    2004-10-01

    Nonpoint pollution from agriculture is an important environmental policy issue in Spain and the European Union. Agricultural pollution in Spain is being addressed by the National Irrigation Plan and by the European Water Framework Directive. This article contributes to the ongoing policy decision process by analyzing nonpoint pollution control and presenting results on the efficiency of abatement measures. Results question the reliance of the Water Framework Directive on water pricing as a pollution instrument for reaching good status for all waters because higher water prices close to full recovery cost advocated by the directive appear to be inefficient as an emission control instrument. Another important result is that abatement measures based on input taxes and standards on nitrogen appear to be more suitable than the National Irrigation Plan subsidies designed to promote irrigation investments. The results also contribute with further evidence to the discussion on the appropriate instrument base for pollution control, proving that nonpoint pollution control instruments cannot be assessed accurately without a correct understanding of the key underlying biophysical processes. Nonpoint pollution is characterized by nonlinearities, dynamics, and spatial dependency, and neglect of the dynamic aspects may lead to serious consequences for the design of measures. Finally, a quantitative assessment has been performed to explore discriminating measures based on crop pollution potential on vulnerable soils. No significant welfare gains are found from discriminating control, although results are contingent upon the level of damage, and discrimination could be justified in areas with valuable ecosystems and severe pollution damages.

  2. European regulatory policies on medicines and public health needs.

    PubMed

    Li Bassi, Luca; Bertele, Vittorio; Garattini, Silvio

    2003-09-01

    The establishment of the EMEA has been a revolutionary step in the European pharmaceutical system. The 15 Member States of the European Union now share a common system for the evaluation of new medicinal products entering the European market. The decisions taken apply to the whole EU, with important implications for both industry and patients who may benefit from new therapies. The main immediate consequences of this system are: i) the time and effort saved by Member States in the evaluation of new drug applications; ii) more consistent and quicker availability of medicines in EU countries; iii) the establishment of a homogeneous regulatory policy throughout the EU. Public health has been presented as the fundamental concern of the EMEA, the mission statement of which is 'to promote the protection of human health ... and of consumers of medicinal products'. However, we note that there are some inconsistencies with this objective and the current system, such as those regarding drug trial requirements and the institutional location and financing of the EMEA. In this paper, some aspects of the new system are reviewed and consideration given as to how they relate to public health needs. Proposals are made for debate alternatives and improvements to the present system that would better respond to patients' health needs. PMID:14533728

  3. The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S): A European Answer to Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thepaut, Jean-Noel

    2016-04-01

    Copernicus is the European Commission's flagship Earth observation programme that delivers freely accessible operational data and information services. ECMWF has been entrusted to operate two key parts of the Copernicus programme, which will bring a consistent standard to the measurement, forecasting and prediction of atmospheric conditions and climate change: • The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service, CAMS, provides daily forecasts detailing the makeup composition of the atmosphere from the ground up to the stratosphere. • The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (in development) will routinely monitor and analyse more than 20 essential climate variables to build a global picture of our climate, from the past to the future, as well as developing customisable climate indicators for relevant economic sectors, such as energy, water management, agriculture, insurance, health…. C3S has now taken off and a number of proof-of-concept sectoral climate services have been initiated. This paper will focus on the description and expected outcome of these proof-of-concept activities as well as the definition of a roadmap towards a fully operational European Climate Change Service.

  4. Guiding Science and Policy Through the Global Climate Change Debate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silson, J.; Bullock, M. A.; Frodeman, R. L.

    2001-12-01

    Facing the possibility of global climate change, policy makers are forced to make decisions about the research and application of science and technology to mitigate both the causes and effects of an evolving global climate. In the past, when deciding what kinds of research to fund, policy makers have relied on the criteria of feasibility and possible effectiveness in choosing areas to support. However, given both the complexity of the climate and its sensitivity to human decisions, future policy makers will need to develop a variety of criteria for choosing which subjects are worth pursuing. One issue that policy makers are likely to consider is the restriction of some areas of research based on the possible dangers that they may entail. This talk considers the question of whether and how policy makers should make such decisions within the context of global climate change.

  5. Modelling urban climate under global climate change in Central European cities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuvela-Aloise, Maja; Bokwa, Anita; Dobrovolny, Petr; Gal, Tamas; Geletic, Jan; Gulyas, Agnes; Hajto, Monika; Hollosi, Brigitta; Kielar, Rafal; Lehnert, Michal; Skarbit, Nora; Stastny, Pavel; Svec, Marek; Unger, Janos; Vysoudil, Miroslav; Walawender, Jakub P.

    2015-04-01

    The global and regional climate warming is expected to increase the heat load in urban areas. In order to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies in particular cities, it is necessary to evaluate possible range of heat load increase, in terms of both its magnitude and spatial extent. The present study shows preliminary results of an international project aimed to evaluate the expected heat load increase in four Central European cities (Krakow, Poland; Bratislava, Slovakia; Brno, Czech Republic and Szeged, Hungary) using the non-hydrostatic MUKLIMO 3 model developed by DWD (Deutscher Wetterdienst) for micro-scale urban climate and planning applications. The investigation is focused on the spatial gradients of temperature during potential summer day conditions and possible change in heat load signal under future climate conditions. In order to identify thermally sensitive areas within the city, idealized simulations of temperature, wind and relative humidity in the urban area are performed based on the orography and land use data with 100 m resolution. The model setup uses standardize classification of land use properties based on local climate zones (LCZ) classification system (Stewart and Oke, 2012) which allows inter-comparison of the modelling results. The Landsat satellite images are used to identify typical land use classes in all the cities. The climatological changes in urban heat load are evaluated in terms of expected increase in the mean annual number of summer days (Tmax ≥ 25°C). The 30-year climatological indices are calculated based on the cuboid method. Timeseries of mean daily temperature, wind and relative humidity from a local meteorological station are used to evaluate the climatic indices for the recent climatic period, while the future climate signal is based on the data from regional climate projections of the EURO-CORDEX project. The project "Urban climate in Central European cities and global climate change" is funded within the

  6. The visualisation and communication of probabilistic climate forecasts to renewable energy policy makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Doblas-Reyes, F.; Steffen, S.; Lowe, R.; Davis, M.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    Despite the strong dependence of weather and climate variability on the renewable energy industry, and several initiatives towards demonstrating the added benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts into energy decision making process, they are still under-utilised within the sector. Improved communication is fundamental to stimulate the use of climate forecast information within decision-making processes, in order to adapt to a highly climate dependent renewable energy industry. This paper focuses on improving the visualisation of climate forecast information, paying special attention to seasonal to decadal (s2d) timescales. This is central to enhance climate services for renewable energy, and optimise the usefulness and usability of inherently complex climate information. In the realm of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) initiative, and subsequent European projects: Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Prediction for the Improvement of European Climate Service (SPECS) and the European Provision of Regional Impacts Assessment in Seasonal and Decadal Timescales (EUPORIAS), this paper investigates the visualisation and communication of s2d forecasts with regards to their usefulness and usability, to enable the development of a European climate service. The target end user will be renewable energy policy makers, who are central to enhance climate services for the energy industry. The overall objective is to promote the wide-range dissemination and exchange of actionable climate information based on s2d forecasts from Global Producing Centres (GPC's). Therefore, it is crucial to examine the existing main barriers and deficits. Examples of probabilistic climate forecasts from different GPC's were used to prepare a catalogue of current approaches, to assess their advantages and limitations and finally to recommend better alternatives. In parallel, interviews were conducted with renewable energy stakeholders to receive feedback for the improvement of existing

  7. Climate Change Policy: What's Next for the U.S.?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannegan, B. J.

    2001-12-01

    A review of current U.S. domestic and international climate change policy will be presented, including discussion of key issues and key decision makers. Special attention will be paid to recent U.S. decisions taken in the context of international negotiations on the Kyoto Protocol, as well as decisions taken on domestic climate change policy as part of a broader national energy strategy. Pending legislative proposals being considered by the Congress and the President will be summarized, and the role of scientific research in the national climate policy debate will be discussed.

  8. Regaining momentum for international climate policy beyond Copenhagen

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    The 'Copenhagen Accord' fails to deliver the political framework for a fair, ambitious and legally-binding international climate agreement beyond 2012. The current climate policy regime dynamics are insufficient to reflect the realities of topical complexity, actor coalitions, as well as financial, legal and institutional challenges in the light of extreme time constraints to avoid 'dangerous' climate change of more than 2°C. In this paper we analyze these stumbling blocks for international climate policy and discuss alternatives in order to regain momentum for future negotiations. PMID:20525341

  9. Recent Extremes in European Climate: Assessment, Case Studies and Impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yiou, P.; Vautard, R.; D'Andrea, F.; Cattiaux, J.; Naveau, P.; Ciais, P.; Garnier, E.

    2008-12-01

    During the last centuries and up to the present decade, extreme climate events have certainly had larger economic impacts than any trend of temperature in Europe. In addition to an intrinsic scientific interest, their study is thus essential for society. One of the challenges of their investigation is that, depending on their definition, extreme climate events potentially have a behavior that is not connected to the secular temperature trend in a simple fashion. This presentation will review the statistical assessments of extremes in Europe, focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, and their connections with large-scale features of the atmospheric circulation. In particular, the questions of modeling their severity and frequency will be discussed in the first part of the presentation. I will then give two kinds of examples of European climate extremes: summer heatwaves and droughts, and winter warm waves. The mechanisms leading to such phenomena will be explored, and I will examine some of the impacts on the biosphere that were recently observed. In order to provide a long term perspective of those events, examples of historical droughts in France will be presented and connected with proxy records of temperature. It appears that the mechanisms that are favored for present-day climate might still have been valid during the past centuries. To conclude, new challenges for dynamical and statistical modeling will be explored.

  10. The Climate Policy Narrative for a Dangerously Warming World

    SciTech Connect

    Sanford, Todd; Frumhoff, Peter; Luers, Amy; Gulledge, Jay

    2014-01-01

    It is time to acknowledge that global average temperatures will likely rise above the 2 C policy target and consider how that deeply troubling prospect should affect priorities for communicating and managing the risks of a dangerously warming climate.

  11. Dirk Forrister -- Looking at U.S. climate change policy

    SciTech Connect

    1997-11-01

    This month, American Gas presents another in its series of interviews with influential policy-makers in Washington. This interview with Dirk Forrister, chairman of the White House Climate Change Task Force, focuses on the upcoming United Nations conference on global warming, being held December 1--10 in Kyoto, Japan, and on the Clinton administration`s position and policies on global climate change.

  12. European experience in chemicals management: integrating science into policy.

    PubMed

    Christensen, Frans M; Eisenreich, Steven J; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Sintes, Juan Riego; Sokull-Kluettgen, Birgit; Van de Plassche, Erik J

    2011-01-01

    The European Union (EU) adopted the first legislation on chemicals management in 1967 with the Dangerous Substances Directive (DSD). Over time the underlying concepts evolved: from hazard identification over risk assessment to safety assessment. In 1981 a premarketing notification scheme was introduced. Approximately 10 years later a risk assessment program started for existing substances following a data collection and prioritization exercise. Integration of science into EU chemicals legislation occurred via several technical committees managed by the European Chemicals Bureau (ECB) and resulted in the Technical Guidance Document on Risk Assessment (TGD), which harmonized the risk assessment methodology. The TGD was revised several times to adapt to scientific developments. The revision process, and the risk assessments for new and existing substances, led to scientific research on chemical risk assessment and thus increased in complexity. The new EU chemicals policy REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorization and Restriction of CHemicals) builds on previous experiences and aims to further enhance health and safety. REACH places the burden of proof for chemical safety on industry focusing on managing risks. REACH formalizes the precautionary principle. Furthermore, it underlines a continued scientific underpinning in its implementation, also via stakeholder involvement, and a focus on aligning with international fora. PMID:20958022

  13. COST 734-CLIVAGRI: Impacts of Climate change and Variability on European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orlandini, S.; Nejedlik, P.; Eitzinger, J.; Alexandrov, V.; Toulios, L.; Kajfez Bogataj, L.; Calanca, P.; Trnka, M.; Olesen, J. E.

    2009-09-01

    COST is an intergovernmental framework for European Cooperation in Science and Technology, funded by its member countries through the EU Framework Programme. The objective of COST is to coordinate, integrate and synthesise results from ongoing national research within and between COST member countries to add value to research investment. COST Actions aim to deliver scientific syntheses and analyses of best available practice to aid problem identification, risk assessment, public utilities and policy development. During 2006, COST Action 734 (CLIVAGRI-Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture) was launched thanks to the coordinated activity of 15 EU countries. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas (COST 734 MoU. www.cost.esf.org). Secondary objectives are: the collection and review of existing agroclimatic indices and simulation models, to assess hazard impacts on various European agricultural areas relating hazards to climatic conditions; building climate scenarios for the next few decades; the definition of harmonised criteria to evaluate the impacts of climate change and variability on agriculture; the definition of warning systems guidelines. Four working groups, with the integration of remote sensing sub working group 2.1 were created to address these aims: WG1 - Agroclimatic indices and simulation models WG2 - Evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and simulation model outputs describing agricultural impacts and hazard levels WG3 - Development and assessment of future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions WG4 - Risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture The activity of WGs has been structured like a matrix, presenting on the rows the methods of analysis and on the columns the phenomena and the hazards. Each intersection point describes the

  14. Mitigation and Adaptation within a Climate Policy Portfolio

    EPA Science Inventory

    An effective policy response to climate change will include, among other things, investments in lowering greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation), as well as short-term temporary (flow) and long-lived capital-intensive (stock) adaptation to climate change. A critical near-term ques...

  15. The Contribution of European Vocational Training Policy to Reforms in the Partner Countries of the European Union

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Masson, Jean-Raymond

    2007-01-01

    This article provides an overview of recent developments in EU vocational education and training (VET) policy, and of the issues and challenges faced by VET systems in the Western Balkans, Turkey, and other countries covered by the "wider European neighbourhood" policy. The purpose is to emphasise the relevance for these countries of the EU…

  16. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies.

    PubMed

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-10-16

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  17. Economics of nuclear power and climate change mitigation policies

    PubMed Central

    Bauer, Nico; Brecha, Robert J.; Luderer, Gunnar

    2012-01-01

    The events of March 2011 at the nuclear power complex in Fukushima, Japan, raised questions about the safe operation of nuclear power plants, with early retirement of existing nuclear power plants being debated in the policy arena and considered by regulators. Also, the future of building new nuclear power plants is highly uncertain. Should nuclear power policies become more restrictive, one potential option for climate change mitigation will be less available. However, a systematic analysis of nuclear power policies, including early retirement, has been missing in the climate change mitigation literature. We apply an energy economy model framework to derive scenarios and analyze the interactions and tradeoffs between these two policy fields. Our results indicate that early retirement of nuclear power plants leads to discounted cumulative global GDP losses of 0.07% by 2020. If, in addition, new nuclear investments are excluded, total losses will double. The effect of climate policies imposed by an intertemporal carbon budget on incremental costs of policies restricting nuclear power use is small. However, climate policies have much larger impacts than policies restricting the use of nuclear power. The carbon budget leads to cumulative discounted near term reductions of global GDP of 0.64% until 2020. Intertemporal flexibility of the carbon budget approach enables higher near-term emissions as a result of increased power generation from natural gas to fill the emerging gap in electricity supply, while still remaining within the overall carbon budget. Demand reductions and efficiency improvements are the second major response strategy. PMID:23027963

  18. Science integration into US climate and ocean policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petes, Laura E.; Howard, Jennifer F.; Helmuth, Brian S.; Fly, Elizabeth K.

    2014-08-01

    The pace of environmental change lends urgency to the need for integration of climate considerations into ocean policy and management. A recent rapid expansion of ocean and climate policies provides a timely window of opportunity for the scientific community to inform and support these efforts. Lessons can be learned from successful initiatives, where scientists are working hand-in-hand with decision makers and managers to enhance ocean resilience. Looking ahead, the most pressing decision-needs associated with oceans and climate change should serve to prioritize and drive scientific efforts.

  19. Climate Modeling in Support of Policy Decisionmaking in Germany

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brasseur, G. P.

    2010-12-01

    As a reaction to the increasing demand for climate information for adaptation strategies, the Climate Service Center (CSC) has been founded in Germany. The main objective of CSC is bringing together climate change information, impact assessments and economic and policy strategies in one institution and thus facilitating communication between the disciplines and sectors. It became obvious, that bridging the gap between available climate change information and the requirements of the impact, vulnerability and adaptation communities is of utmost importance. Two different aspects have to be considered: the temporal and spatial refinement of biogeophysical quantities, usually done via dynamical or statistical downscaling of the coarse-scale climate information, and the incorporation of uncertainty measures into the decision making process for adaptation policies. For both aspects, communication is the key necessity. Organizing thematic workshops to assemble the disciplines is therefore one keystone of the CSC work. During the presentation, the CSC vision, strategy and methodologies will be explained.

  20. Simulations of the climate effects of European air quality legislation in Pegasos

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    O'Donnell, Declan; Laaksonen, Ari; Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank

    2015-04-01

    Pegasos is a large-scale, multiyear project that studies the interactions between air quality and climate employing laboratory and field measurements, and modelling studies from process level to global scale. Among the scientific questions addressed by Pegasos is that of how the reduction in particulate emissions resulting from the cumulative European air quality legislation (which has been progressively enacted since 1970) affects the climate system. To investigate this question, we have performed multi-decadal climate simulations using the coupled Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) together with the fully integrated aerosol model HAM, using purpose-built emission inventories representing (i) a best estimate of modern-day (here taken as the year 2010) emissions and (ii) a scenario in which no European Union (EU) air quality legislation had been enacted. The difference between the two amounts to a total anthropogenic emission of some 2.8 Tg/yr PM2.5. The simulations were run using greenhouse gas concentrations fixed at 2010 levels and were each of 40 simulated years after spinup. As expected, the largest reductions in particulate matter concentrations are found over Europe. In contrast, the strongest climate signals are found in regions remote from the particulate emission sources. The global mean multiannual surface temperature does not show a strong response to the emission reductions, differing by less than 0.1°C between the simulations. However, this masks large regional differences, with the strongest signal not in the emission source regions, but in the Arctic and central Siberia, where the simluated temperature difference reaches over 1°C. Precipitation changes also show a stronger signal far from the source regions: tropical precipitation is affected to a greater degree than the extratropical, which seems to be due to the changes in the hemispherically asymmetric aerosol forcing influencing the location of the Intertropical Convergence Zone

  1. Resource allocation strategies in Southeastern European health policy.

    PubMed

    Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B

    2013-04-01

    The past 23 years of post-socialist restructuring of health system funding and management patterns has brought many changes to small Balkan markets, putting them under increasing pressure to keep pace with advancing globalization. Socioeconomic inequalities in healthcare access are still growing across the region. This uneven development is marked by the substantial difficulties encountered by local governments in delivering medical services to broad sectors of the population. This paper presents the results of a systematic review of the following evidence: published reports on health system reforms in the region commissioned by WHO, IMF, World Bank, OECD, European Commission; all available published evidence on health economics, funding, reimbursement in world/local languages since 1989 indexed at Medline, Excerpta Medica and Google Scholar; in depth analysis of official website data on medical care financing related legislation among key public institutions such as national Ministries of health, Health Insurance Funds, Professional Associations were applicable, in local languages; correspondence with key opinion leaders in the field in their respective communities. Contributors were asked to answer a particular set of questions related to the issue, thus enlightening fresh legislative developments and hidden patterns of policy maker's behavior. Cost awareness is slowly expanding in regional management, academic and industrial establishment. The study provides an exact and comprehensive description of its current extent and legislative framework. Western Balkans policy makers would profit substantially from health-economics-based decision-making to cope with increasing difficulties in funding and delivering medical care in emerging markets with a rapidly growing demand for health services. PMID:23143312

  2. The Longterm Effects of Climate Change in European Shrubland Ecosystems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Emmett, B.; Sowerby, A.; Smith, A.; EU Increase-infrastructure Project Team

    2011-12-01

    Shrublands constitute significant and important parts of European landscapes providing a large number of important ecosystem services. Biogeochemical cycles in these ecosystems have gained little attention relative to forests and grassland systems. As climate change progresses the potential feedback from the biosphere to the atmosphere through changes in above and below-ground structure and functioning will become increasingly important. A series of replicate long term climate change experiments have been running for ca. 10 years in contrasting shrubland types across Europe to quantify; (a) the potential changes in carbon sequestration, GHG emissions and nutrient cycling, (b) the links to above and below-ground biodiversity, and (c) implications for water quality, in response to warming and repeated summer drought. Results indicate a relatively high rate of below-ground carbon allocation compared to forest systems and the importance of modifying factors such as past and current management, atmospheric deposition and soil type in determining resilience to change. Unexpectedly, sustained reduction in soil moisture over winter (between drought periods and despite major winter rainfall) was observed in the repeated summer drought treatment, along with a reduction in the maximum water-holding capacity attained. The persistent reduction in soil moisture throughout the year resulted in a year-round increase in soil respiration flux, a response that accelerated over time to 40% above control levels in the hydric, organic-rich UK system. As above-ground biomass, litter production and diversity was remarkably stable, changes in soil fungal communities and soil physical structure appear to be critical in driving changes in soil carbon fluxes in this organic-rich site. Current ecosystem models may under-estimate potential changes in carbon loss in response to climate change if changes in soil biological and physical properties are not included.

  3. Climate change mitigation policies and poverty in developing countries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hussein, Zekarias; Hertel, Thomas; Golub, Alla

    2013-09-01

    Mitigation of the potential impacts of climate change is one of the leading policy concerns of the 21st century. However, there continues to be heated debate about the nature, the content and, most importantly, the impact of the policy actions needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions. One contributing factor is the lack of systematic evidence on the impact of mitigation policy on the welfare of the poor in developing countries. In this letter we consider two alternative policy scenarios, one in which only the Annex I countries take action, and the second in which the first policy is accompanied by a forest carbon sequestration policy in the non-Annex regions. Using an economic climate policy analysis framework, we assess the poverty impacts of the above policy scenarios on seven socio-economic groups in 14 developing countries. We find that the Annex-I-only policy is poverty friendly, since it enhances the competitiveness of non-Annex countries—particularly in agricultural production. However, once forest carbon sequestration incentives in the non-Annex regions are added to the policy package, the overall effect is to raise poverty in the majority of our sample countries. The reason for this outcome is that the dominant impacts of this policy are to raise returns to land, reduce agricultural output and raise food prices. Since poor households rely primarily on their own labor for income, and generally own little land, and since they also spend a large share of their income on food, they are generally hurt on both the earning and the spending fronts. This result is troubling, since forest carbon sequestration—particularly through avoided deforestation—is a promising, low cost option for climate change mitigation.

  4. Communicating the Needs of Climate Change Policy Makers to Scientists

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Molly E.; Escobar, Vanessa M.; Lovell, Heather

    2012-01-01

    This chapter will describe the challenges that earth scientists face in developing science data products relevant to decision maker and policy needs, and will describe strategies that can improve the two-way communication between the scientist and the policy maker. Climate change policy and decision making happens at a variety of scales - from local government implementing solar homes policies to international negotiations through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Scientists can work to provide data at these different scales, but if they are not aware of the needs of decision makers or understand what challenges the policy maker is facing, they are likely to be less successful in influencing policy makers as they wished. This is because the science questions they are addressing may be compelling, but not relevant to the challenges that are at the forefront of policy concerns. In this chapter we examine case studies of science-policy partnerships, and the strategies each partnership uses to engage the scientist at a variety of scales. We examine three case studies: the global Carbon Monitoring System pilot project developed by NASA, a forest biomass mapping effort for Silvacarbon project, and a forest canopy cover project being conducted for forest management in Maryland. In each of these case studies, relationships between scientists and policy makers were critical for ensuring the focus of the science as well as the success of the decision-making.

  5. Governing Education through Data: Scotland, England and the European Education Policy Space

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Grek, Sotiria; Ozga, Jenny

    2010-01-01

    This paper draws on interview data from national policy makers in England, Scotland and the European Commission to illustrate differences in the referencing of "Europe" in education policy-making in England and Scotland in order to highlight the emergent complexity of post-devolution policy-making in education through a focus on relations and…

  6. Expert Groups in the Building of European Public Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Robert, Cecile

    2012-01-01

    When it comes to building European public action, expertise is ubiquitous and polymorphic. This article intends to study the ways expertise is being used in the European Commission and the logics underlying its use. The massive use of expertise also has consequences for the practices and identities of actors with whom European institutions…

  7. Possible Orientations of the European Dimension in Romanian Educational Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Enache, Roxana

    2011-01-01

    Curricular reform in any educational system should be to balance national, European or international elements and should integrate diversity. European education calls for a democratic citizenship education that includes a political, cultural, social and economic education--an overall European dimension, which implies an awareness of the drive and…

  8. Advantages of a polycentric approach to climate change policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cole, Daniel H.

    2015-02-01

    Lack of progress in global climate negotiations has led scholars to reconsider polycentric approaches to climate policy. Several examples of subglobal mechanisms to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions have been touted, but it remains unclear why they might achieve better climate outcomes than global negotiations alone. Decades of work conducted by researchers associated with the Vincent and Elinor Ostrom Workshop in Political Theory and Policy Analysis at Indiana University have emphasized two chief advantages of polycentric approaches over monocentric ones: they provide more opportunities for experimentation and learning to improve policies over time, and they increase communications and interactions -- formal and informal, bilateral and multilateral -- among parties to help build the mutual trust needed for increased cooperation. A wealth of theoretical, empirical and experimental evidence supports the polycentric approach.

  9. Transition in Education: Policy Making and the Key Educational Policy Areas in the Central-European and Baltic Countries.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rado, Peter

    This report examines transition in educational systems and identifies key policy areas in Central-Eastern European countries. It summarizes policy implications of the transition process within the educational context of these countries. Chapter 1, "Transition and Education," outlines key characteristics of the transition process and describes the…

  10. The regrets of procrastination in climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Keller, Klaus; Robinson, Alexander; Bradford, David F.; Oppenheimer, Michael

    2007-04-01

    Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are projected to impose economic costs due to the associated climate change impacts. Climate change impacts can be reduced by abating CO2 emissions. What would be an economically optimal investment in abating CO2 emissions? Economic models typically suggest that reducing CO2 emissions by roughly ten to twenty per cent relative to business-as-usual would be an economically optimal strategy. The currently implemented CO2 abatement of a few per cent falls short of this benchmark. Hence, the global community may be procrastinating in implementing an economically optimal strategy. Here we use a simple economic model to estimate the regrets of this procrastination—the economic costs due to the suboptimal strategy choice. The regrets of procrastination can range from billions to trillions of US dollars. The regrets increase with increasing procrastination period and with decreasing limits on global mean temperature increase. Extended procrastination may close the window of opportunity to avoid crossing temperature limits interpreted by some as 'dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system' in the sense of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Global Climate Change.

  11. Report of a Policy Forum: Weather, Climate, and Energy

    SciTech Connect

    2002-07-01

    The report of a policy forum on Weather, Climate, and Energy presents findings and recommendations that, if implemented, could position the energy sector, the providers of weather and climate science and services, and energy consumers to mange more cooperatively and effectively the production, distribution, and consumption of electrical power and fossil fuels. Recent U.S. experience with a series of energy shortages encouraged the AMS Atmospheric Policy Program to join with the University of Oklahoma in the development of a forum to address the issues connected with responding to those shortages. Nearly 100 representatives from the public, private, and academic portions of the energy production sector, the meteorological community, political and corporate leaders, weather risk management analysts, and policy makers met on October 16-17, 2001 to discuss these policy issues.

  12. Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M.; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A.; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Porto, Antonio Lo; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J.; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

    2015-08-01

    There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60 % by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized.

  13. Climate Change and European Water Bodies, a Review of Existing Gaps and Future Research Needs: Findings of the ClimateWater Project.

    PubMed

    Garnier, Monica; Harper, David M; Blaskovicova, Lotta; Hancz, Gabriella; Janauer, Georg A; Jolánkai, Zsolt; Lanz, Eva; Lo Porto, Antonio; Mándoki, Monika; Pataki, Beata; Rahuel, Jean-Luc; Robinson, Victoria J; Stoate, Chris; Tóth, Eszter; Jolánkai, Géza

    2015-08-01

    There is general agreement among scientists that global temperatures are rising and will continue to increase in the future. It is also agreed that human activities are the most important causes of these climatic variations, and that water resources are already suffering and will continue to be greatly impaired as a consequence of these changes. In particular, it is probable that areas with limited water resources will expand and that an increase of global water demand will occur, estimated to be around 35-60% by 2025 as a consequence of population growth and the competing needs of water uses. This will cause a growing imbalance between water demand (including the needs of nature) and supply. This urgency demands that climate change impacts on water be evaluated in different sectors using a cross-cutting approach (Contestabile in Nat Clim Chang 3:11-12, 2013). These issues were examined by the EU FP7-funded Co-ordination and support action "ClimateWater" (bridging the gap between adaptation strategies of climate change impacts and European water policies). The project studied adaptation strategies to minimize the water-related consequences of climate change and assessed how these strategies should be taken into consideration by European policies. This article emphasizes that knowledge gaps still exist about the direct effects of climate change on water bodies and their indirect impacts on production areas that employ large amounts of water (e.g., agriculture). Some sectors, such as ecohydrology and alternative sewage treatment technologies, could represent a powerful tool to mitigate climate change impacts. Research needs in these still novel fields are summarized. PMID:26076892

  14. Large-scale climatic control on European precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lavers, David; Prudhomme, Christel; Hannah, David

    2010-05-01

    Precipitation variability has a significant impact on society. Sectors such as agriculture and water resources management are reliant on predictable and reliable precipitation supply with extreme variability having potentially adverse socio-economic impacts. Therefore, understanding the climate drivers of precipitation is of human relevance. This research examines the strength, location and seasonality of links between precipitation and large-scale Mean Sea Level Pressure (MSLP) fields across Europe. In particular, we aim to evaluate whether European precipitation is correlated with the same atmospheric circulation patterns or if there is a strong spatial and/or seasonal variation in the strength and location of centres of correlations. The work exploits time series of gridded ERA-40 MSLP on a 2.5˚×2.5˚ grid (0˚N-90˚N and 90˚W-90˚E) and gridded European precipitation from the Ensemble project on a 0.5°×0.5° grid (36.25˚N-74.25˚N and 10.25˚W-24.75˚E). Monthly Spearman rank correlation analysis was performed between MSLP and precipitation. During winter, a significant MSLP-precipitation correlation dipole pattern exists across Europe. Strong negative (positive) correlation located near the Icelandic Low and positive (negative) correlation near the Azores High pressure centres are found in northern (southern) Europe. These correlation dipoles resemble the structure of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The reversal in the correlation dipole patterns occurs at the latitude of central France, with regions to the north (British Isles, northern France, Scandinavia) having a positive relationship with the NAO, and regions to the south (Italy, Portugal, southern France, Spain) exhibiting a negative relationship with the NAO. In the lee of mountain ranges of eastern Britain and central Sweden, correlation with North Atlantic MSLP is reduced, reflecting a reduced influence of westerly flow on precipitation generation as the mountains act as a barrier to moist

  15. Regional climate impacts of a biofuels policy projection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Anderson, Christopher J.; Anex, Robert P.; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gelder, Brian K.; Khanal, Sami; Herzmann, Daryl E.; Gassman, Phillip W.

    2013-03-01

    The potential for regional climate change arising from adoption of policies to increase production of biofuel feedstock is explored using a regional climate model. Two simulations are performed using the same atmospheric forcing data for the period 1979-2004, one with present-day land use and monthly phenology and the other with land use specified from an agro-economic prediction of energy crop distribution and monthly phenology consistent with this land use change. In Kansas and Oklahoma, where the agro-economic model predicts 15-30% conversion to switchgrass, the regional climate model simulates locally lower temperature (especially in spring), slightly higher relative humidity in spring and slightly lower relative humidity in summer, and summer depletion of soil moisture. This shows the potential for climate impacts of biofuel policies and raises the question of whether soil water depletion may limit biomass crop productivity in agricultural areas that are responsive to the policies. We recommend the use of agronomic models to evaluate the possibility that soil moisture depletion could reduce productivity of biomass crops in this region. We conclude, therefore, that agro-economic and climate models should be used iteratively to examine an ensemble of agricultural land use and climate scenarios, thereby reducing the possibility of unforeseen consequences from rapid changes in agricultural production systems.

  16. Suggestions for Forest Conservation Policy under Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choe, H.; Thorne, J. H.; Lee, D. K.; Seo, C.

    2015-12-01

    Climate change and the destruction of natural habitats by land-use change are two main factors in decreasing terrestrial biodiversity. Studying land-use and climate change and their impact under different scenarios can help suggest policy directions for future events. This study explores the spatial results of different land use and climate models on the extent of species rich areas in South Korea. We built land use models of forest conversion and created four 2050 scenarios: (1) a loss trend following current levels, resulting in 15.5% lost; (2) similar loss, but with forest conservation in areas with suitable future climates; (3) a reduction of forest loss by 50%; and (4) a combination of preservation of forest climate refugia and overall reduction of loss by 50%. Forest climate refugia were identified through the use of species distribution models run on 1,031 forest plant species to project current and 2050 distributions. We calculated change in species richness under four climate projections, permitting an assessment of forest refugia zones. We then crossed the four land use models with the climate-driven change in species richness. Forest areas predominantly convert to agricultural areas, while climate-suitable extents for forest plants decline and move northward, especially to higher elevations. Scenario 2, that has the higher level of deforestation but protects future species rich areas, conserves nearly as much future biodiversity as scenario 3, which reduced deforestation rates by 50%. This points to the importance of including biogeographic climate dynamics in forest policy. Scenario 4 was the most effective at conserving forest biodiversity. We suggest conserving forest areas with suitable climates for biodiversity conservation and the establishment of monoculture plantations targeted to areas where species richness will decline based on our results.

  17. Emerging Forms of Climate Protection Governance: Urban Initiatives in the European Union

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, J. K.; Brunner, E.

    2006-12-01

    Changes in climate patterns are expected to pose increasing challenges for cities in the following decades, with adverse impacts on urban populations currently stressed by poverty, health and economic inequities. Simultaneously, a strong global trend towards urbanization of poverty exists, with increased challenges for local governments to protect and sustain the well-being of growing cities. In the context of these two overarching trends, interdisciplinary research at the city scale is prioritized for understanding the social impacts of climate change and variability and for the evaluation of strategies in the built environment that might serve as adaptive and mitigative responses to climate change. Urban managers, and transnational networks of municipalities and non-state actors, have taken an increasingly active role in climate protection, through research, policies, programs and agreements on adaptation and mitigation strategies. Concerns for urban impacts of climate change include the potential increase in frequency and intensity of damaging extreme weather events, such as heat waves, hurricanes, heavy rainfall or drought, and coastal flooding and erosion, and potentially adverse impacts on infrastructure, energy systems, and public health. Higher average summertime temperatures in temperate zone cities are also associated with environmental and public health liabilities such as decreased air quality and increased peak electrical demand. We review municipal climate protection programs, generally categorized as approaches based on technological innovation (e.g., new materials); changes in behavior and public education (e.g., use of cooling centers); and improvements in urban design (e.g., zoning for mixed land-use; the use of water, vegetation and plazas to reduce the urban heat island effect). Climate protection initiatives in three European cities are assessed within the context of the global collective efforts enacted by the Kyoto Protocol and United Nations

  18. The impact of European measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turnock, S.; Butt, E. W.; Richardson, T.; Mann, G.; Forster, P.; Haywood, J. M.; Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G. G. A.; Johnson, C.; Bellouin, N.; Spracklen, D. V.; Carslaw, K. S.; Reddington, C.

    2015-12-01

    European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, resulting in improved air quality and benefits to human health but also an unintended impact on regional climate. Here we used a coupled chemistry-climate model and a new policy relevant emission scenario to determine the impact of air pollutant emission reductions over Europe. The emission scenario shows that a combination of technological improvements and end-of-pipe abatement measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors reduced European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon and organic carbon by 53%, 59% and 32% respectively. We estimate that these emission reductions decreased European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, black carbon (BC) by 56% and particulate organic matter (POM) by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 107,000 (40,000-172,000, 5-95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually from cardiopulmonary disease and lung cancer across the EU member states. The decrease in aerosol concentrations caused a positive all-sky aerosol radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere over Europe of 2.3±0.06 W m-2 and a positive clear-sky forcing of 1.7±0.05 W m-2. Additionally, the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe increased by 3.3±0.07 W m-2 under all-sky and by 2.7±0.05 W m-2 under clear-sky conditions. Reductions in BC concentrations caused a 1 Wm-2 reduction in atmospheric absorption. We use an energy budget approximation to show that the aerosol induced radiative changes caused both temperature and precipitation to increase globally and over Europe. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human health over Europe, as well as altered the regional radiative balance and climate.

  19. Valuing Precaution in Climate Change Policy Analysis (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howarth, R. B.

    2010-12-01

    The U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations to prevent “dangerous anthropogenic interference” (DAI) with the global environment. This treaty language emphasizes a precautionary approach to climate change policy in a setting characterized by substantial uncertainty regarding the timing, magnitude, and impacts of climate change. In the economics of climate change, however, analysts often work with deterministic models that assign best-guess values to parameters that are highly uncertain. Such models support a “policy ramp” approach in which only limited steps should be taken to reduce the future growth of greenhouse gas emissions. This presentation will explore how uncertainties related to (a) climate sensitivity and (b) climate-change damages can be satisfactorily addressed in a coupled model of climate-economy dynamics. In this model, capping greenhouse gas concentrations at ~450 ppm of carbon dioxide equivalent provides substantial net benefits by reducing the risk of low-probability, catastrophic impacts. This result formalizes the intuition embodied in the DAI criterion in a manner consistent with rational decision-making under uncertainty.

  20. The United Nations and Climate Change: Legal and Policy Developments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bunn, Isabella D.

    2009-07-01

    The Secretary-General of the United Nations, Ban Ki-moon, has declared that climate change is "the defining challenge of our times." Climate change trends indicate increasingly severe negative impacts on the majority of countries, with disproportionate effects on poor and vulnerable populations. The scientific reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), as well as the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), have placed the issue on the forefront of the international agenda. This article examines how climate change is shaping legal and policy developments in five key areas of UN responsibility: international law, humanitarian affairs, human rights, development, and peace and security. It concludes with some observations about high-level efforts to coordinate the response of multilateral institutions, the changing stance of the US government, and the role of environmental protection in addressing the current global economic crisis.

  1. Formalization and separation: A systematic basis for interpreting approaches to summarizing science for climate policy.

    PubMed

    Sundqvist, Göran; Bohlin, Ingemar; Hermansen, Erlend A T; Yearley, Steven

    2015-06-01

    In studies of environmental issues, the question of how to establish a productive interplay between science and policy is widely debated, especially in relation to climate change. The aim of this article is to advance this discussion and contribute to a better understanding of how science is summarized for policy purposes by bringing together two academic discussions that usually take place in parallel: the question of how to deal with formalization (structuring the procedures for assessing and summarizing research, e.g. by protocols) and separation (maintaining a boundary between science and policy in processes of synthesizing science for policy). Combining the two dimensions, we draw a diagram onto which different initiatives can be mapped. A high degree of formalization and separation are key components of the canonical image of scientific practice. Influential Science and Technology Studies analysts, however, are well known for their critiques of attempts at separation and formalization. Three examples that summarize research for policy purposes are presented and mapped onto the diagram: the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the European Union's Science for Environment Policy initiative, and the UK Committee on Climate Change. These examples bring out salient differences concerning how formalization and separation are dealt with. Discussing the space opened up by the diagram, as well as the limitations of the attraction to its endpoints, we argue that policy analyses, including much Science and Technology Studies work, are in need of a more nuanced understanding of the two crucial dimensions of formalization and separation. Accordingly, two analytical claims are presented, concerning trajectories, how organizations represented in the diagram move over time, and mismatches, how organizations fail to handle the two dimensions well in practice. PMID:26477199

  2. Policy Formulation and Networks of Practice in European eLearning: The Emergence of a European E-Learning Area

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salajan, Florin D.

    2013-01-01

    This article discusses the emergence of a European E-Learning Area (EELA) as a consequence of three factors that can be observed in the e-learning developments over the past decade. The first factor consists of the carving of a policy sector in e-learning via formal instruments such as the eLearning Programme, the Lifelong Learning Programme and…

  3. State Policies on School Climate and Bully Prevention Efforts: Challenges and Opportunities for Deepening State Policy Support for Safe and Civil Schools

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Piscatelli, Jennifer; Lee, Chiqueena

    2011-01-01

    The National School Climate Center (NSCC) completed a 50-state policy scan on state school climate and anti-bullying policies to better understand the current state policy infrastructure supporting the development of positive school climates. This policy brief examines the current status of school climate and anti-bullying policies in each state,…

  4. The crisis as catalyst for reframing health care policies in the European Union.

    PubMed

    Helderman, Jan-Kees

    2015-01-01

    Seen from the perspective of health, the global financial crisis (GFC) may be conceived of as an exogenous factor that has undermined the fiscal sustainability of European welfare states and consequently, their (expanding) health systems as well. Being one of the core programs of European welfare states, health care has always belonged to the sovereignty of European Member States. However, in past two decades, European welfare states have in fact become semi-sovereign states and the European Union (EU) no longer is an exogenous actor in European health policy making. Today, the EU not only puts limits to unsustainable growth levels in health care spending, it also acts as an health policy agenda setter. Since the outbreak of the GFC, it does so in an increasingly coercive and persuasive way, claiming authority over health system reforms alongside the responsibilities of its Member States. PMID:25662196

  5. Modelling the effect of UK energy policy and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, Ronald Wai Ho

    The central aim of this thesis is to investigate various UK energy policy documents and identify how they are implanted to the main energy consuming sectors in order to achieve a reduction of 60 percent of carbon emissions by 2050. This has lead to two key questions: What are the pros and cons of the various UK energy policy documents What are the impacts of currently proposed environmental policies in UK on economic growth in the 21st century To answer these questions, the following four energy policy documents are reviewed. UK Energy White Paper Energy Efficiency Commitment Climate Change Levy and UK Emissions Trading Scheme Renewable Obligations Also, the following macro energy modelling work is also investigated: Markal Model E3ME The UK Energy White Paper has shown the government is being very eager to solve the climate change and its associated problems by reducing carbon dioxide emissions by 60 percent by 2050. The four documents have illustrated the UK government main strategies to tackle climate change they are based on developing new technology, improving energy efficiency and to increase the use of renewables considerably. The analysis of these policies and macro-scale model has forecasted that the UK is going to have a slow down economic growth due to the environmental pressure.

  6. Bioethics as a new human rights emphasis in European research policy.

    PubMed

    Elizalde, Jose

    1992-06-01

    Although issues of morals and ethics remain largely a national matter, the European Community (EC) and the Council of Europe have taken an increasing interest in identifying and harmonizing the often conflicting policies of the European countries on bioethical matters. This article examines the role these organizations are playing and identifies some of the initiatives that have been taken in specific areas. PMID:11645743

  7. The European Social Fund: A Very Specific Case Instrument of HRD Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tome, Eduardo

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: This paper aims to review the intervention of the European Social Fund (ESF) as an instrument of human resource development (HRD) policies in the European labor market. Design/methodology/approach: The paper uses an economic background, and reviews the official documents produced by the ESF during its history to try to define its economic…

  8. Employees' Organizations and Their Contribution to the Development of Vocational Training Policy in the European Community.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lemke, Horst

    This document includes eight chapters and an appendix that lists abbreviations and trade union organizations at the European Community (EC) level. Chapter 1 identifies the roles of employers, employee organizations or trade unions, and system conditions in the development of vocational training policies in the European community. Chapter 2…

  9. Developing Policy Instruments for Education in the EU: The European Qualifications Framework for Lifelong Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Elken, Mari

    2015-01-01

    The European Qualifications Framework (EQF) for lifelong learning has been characterized as a policy instrument with a number of contested ideas, raising questions about the process through which such instruments are developed at European level. The introduction of the EQF is in this article examined through variations of neo-institutional theory:…

  10. Efficiency and Equity within European Education Systems and School Choice Policy: Bridging Qualitative and Quantitative Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Poder, Kaire; Kerem, Kaie; Lauri, Triin

    2013-01-01

    We seek out the good institutional features of the European choice policies that can enhance both equity and efficiency at the system level. For causality analysis we construct the typology of 28 European educational systems by using fuzzy-set analysis. We combine five independent variables to indicate institutional features of school choice…

  11. Climate change and air quality: international perspectives and policy implications

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald Prinn; Stephen Dorling

    2005-10-01

    Three major air quality relevant atmospheric constituents that also influence the climate are methane, ozone, and aerosols. Their respective atmospheric lifetimes are roughly 10 years, several days (near surface) to a month (in the free troposphere), and a week. Both O{sub 3} and aerosols are important regional air pollutants in the troposphere. All three constituents also influence the radiative budget of the atmosphere. With the exception of black carbon (BC) aerosols reflect radiation and have a net cooling effect. BC, absorbs solar radiation and warms the atmosphere locally, setting off a readjustment of heat, momentum, clouds, and precipitation patterns that are at least regional in scale. They all have clear international relevance. Interactions between air quality and climate change are highly complex. The Prinn 7 calculations suggest that air pollution policies may have only a small influence, either positive or negative, on global-scale climate change. However, even small militations of climate change can be disproportionately important in economic terms. This occurs because the highest cost climate change mitigation measures, those occurring at the margin, may be avoided. More policy-relevant research needs to be undertaken. This research should include studies of (1) the effects of air pollution policy on overall demand for fossil fuels and individual demands for coal, oil, and gas; (2) the effects of caps on BC (as a regulated air pollutant) on climate; and (3) the effects on ecosystems of changes in deposition rates of acids, nitrates, and sulfates and levels of exposure to SO{sub 2} and NO{sub 2} resulting from air pollution reductions. This article is one of a set of six in this issue of EM devoted to understanding the interactions between climate change and air quality. 12 refs., 1 fig.

  12. Best of enemies: Using social network analysis to explore a policy network in European smoke-free policy.

    PubMed

    Weishaar, Heide; Amos, Amanda; Collin, Jeff

    2015-05-01

    Networks and coalitions of stakeholders play a crucial role in the development and implementation of policies, with previous research highlighting that networks in tobacco control are characterised by an antagonism between supporters and opponents of comprehensive tobacco control policies. This UK-based study used quantitative and qualitative network analysis (drawing on 176 policy submissions and 32 interviews) to systematically map and analyse a network of actors involved in the development of European Union (EU) smoke-free policy. Policy debates were dominated by two coalitions of stakeholders with starkly opposing positions on the issue. One coalition, consisting primarily of health-related organisations, supported comprehensive EU smoke-free policy, whereas the other, led by tobacco manufacturers' organisations, opposed the policy initiative. The data suggest that, aided by strong political commitment of EU decision makers to develop smoke-free policy, advocates supporting comprehensive EU policy were able to frame policy debates in ways which challenged the tobacco industry's legitimacy. They then benefited from the stark polarisation between the two coalitions. The paper provides empirical evidence of the division between two distinct coalitions in tobacco policy debates and draws attention to the complex processes of consensus-seeking, alliance-building and strategic action which are integral to the development of EU policy. Highlighting network polarisation and industry isolation as factors which seemed to increase tobacco control success, the study demonstrates the potential significance and value of FCTC article 5.3 for tobacco control policy-making. PMID:25863723

  13. The European Water Framework Directive: Challenges For A New Type of Social and Policy Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pahl-Wostl, C.

    Water resources managment is facing increasing uncertainties in all areas. Socio- economic boundary conditions change quickly and require more flexible management strategies. Climate change, for example results in an increase in uncertainties, in par- ticular extreme events. Given the fact that current management practices deal with extreme events by designing the technical systems to manage the most extreme of all cases (e.g. higher dams for the protection against extreme floods, larger water reser- voirs for droughts and to meet daily peak demand) a serious problem is posed for long-term planning and risk management. Engineering planning has perceived the hu- man dimension as exogenous boundary conditions. Legislation focused largely on the environmental and technological dimensions that set limits and prescribe new tech- nologies without taking the importance of institutional change into account. However, technology is only the "hardware" and it is becoming increasingly obvious that the "software", the social dimension, has to become part of planning and management processes. Hence, the inclusion of the human dimension into integrated models and processes will be valuable in supporting the introduction of new elements into plan- ning processes in water resources management. With the European Water Framework Directive environmental policy enters a new era. The traditional approach to solving isolated environmental problems with technological fixes and end-of-pipe solutions has started to shift towards a more thoughtful attitude which involves the development of integrated approaches to problem solving. The WFD introduces the river basin as the management unit, thus following the experience of some European countries (e.g. France) and the example of the management of some international rivers (e.g. the Rhine). Overall the WFD represents a general shift towards a polycentric understand- ing of policy making that requires the involvement of stakeholders as active

  14. Climate policy gets down to business

    SciTech Connect

    Powicki, C.R.; Douglas, J.

    2006-07-01

    As Europe negotiates caps and allocations for Phase 2 emissions trading (for 2008-2012) the United States' first mandatory cap and trade initiative is gathering steam in the northeast. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) is designed to stabilise CO{sub 2} emissions from regulated power plants in seven states at approximately 1990 levels from 2009 to 2014 and then reduce them by a total of 10% during a second five-year period. The states included are: Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York and Vermont. Meanwhile, a variety of other regional and state-level initiatives are taking shape over a total of 30 states, targeting the electric power, automotive, oil and gas, real estate and financial services sectors. Emissions targets have been set by several utilities such as American Electric Power, Cinergy and DTE Energy. Several have joined the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) to trade emissions allowances. Decentralised initiatives are seen by David Victor, director of the Program in Energy and Sustainable Development at Stamford University, as a necessary development, coined a Madisonian approach. Several legislation proposals aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have been introduced. Regardless of what Congress eventually turns into law, successful development of advanced technology will, in the authors' opinion, be the requisite for making them work. 5 figs.

  15. The Vocational Training Policy of the European Union.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ruberti, Antonio

    1994-01-01

    LEONARDO, the European Union's new vocational training action program, provides a political and operational tool to address the following: improving quality and innovation capacity, encouraging partnerships, and reinforcing activities through monitoring and evaluation. (JOW)

  16. Underlying Paradox in the European Union's Multilingualism Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Fern L.

    2013-01-01

    The European Union (EU) has developed comprehensive policies in recent years to promote multilingualism. In this article, major EU policy statements on multilingualism are analyzed to demonstrate how their underlying language ideology produces paradox by both encouraging multilingualism and regulating its definition within the EU. The first…

  17. Toward Theory-Led Evaluation: The Experience of European Science, Technology, and Innovation Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molas-Gallart, Jordi; Davies, Andrew

    2006-01-01

    This article reviews the literature and practice concerned with the evaluation of science, technology, and innovation (STI) policies and the way these relate to theories of the innovation process. Referring to the experience of the European Union (EU), the authors review the attempts to ensure that the STI policy theory is informed by advances in…

  18. Climate change and energy security: an analysis of policy research

    SciTech Connect

    King, Marcus Dubois; Gulledge, Jay

    2013-01-01

    The literature on climate change's impacts on energy security is scattered across disparate fields of research and schools of thought. Much of this literature has been produced outside of the academy by scholars and practitioners working in "think tanks," government agencies, and international/multilateral institutions. Here we reviewed a selected set of 58 articles and reports primarily from such sources and performed textual analysis of the arguments. Our review of this literature identifies three potential mechanisms for linking climate change and energy security: Climate change may 1) create second-order effects that may exacerbate social instability and disrupt energy systems; 2) directly impact energy supply and/or systems or 3) influence energy security through the effects of climate-related policies. We identify emerging risks to energy security driven by climate mitigation tech-nology choices but find less evidence of climate change's direct physical impacts. We used both empirical and qualitative selection factors for choosing the grey literature sample. The sources we selected were published in the last 5 years, available through electronic media and were written in language accessible to general policy or academic readers. The organi-zations that published the literature had performed previous research in the general fields of energy and/or climate change with some analytical content and identified themselves as non-partisan. This literature is particularly valuable to scholars because identifies understudied relationships that can be rigorously assessed through academic tools and methodologies and informs a translational research agenda that will allow scholars to engage with practitioners to address challenges that lie at the nexus of climate change and energy security.

  19. Providing Climate Policy Makers With a Strong Scientific Base (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Struzik, E.

    2009-12-01

    Scientists can and should inform public policy decisions in the Arctic. But the pace of climate change in the polar world has been occurring far more quickly than most scientists have been able to predict. This creates problems for decision-makers who recognize that difficult management decisions have to be made in matters pertaining to wildlife management, cultural integrity and economic development. With sea ice melting, glaciers receding, permafrost thawing, forest fires intensifying, and disease and invasive species rapidly moving north, the challenge for scientists to provide climate policy makers with a strong scientific base has been daunting. Clashing as this data sometimes does with the “traditional knowledge” of indigenous peoples in the north, it can also become very political. As a result the need to effectively communicate complex data is more imperative now than ever before. Here, the author describes how the work of scientists can often be misinterpreted or exploited in ways that were not intended. Examples include the inappropriate use of scientific data in decision-making on polar bears, caribou and other wildlife populations; the use of scientific data to debunk the fact that greenhouse gases are driving climate change, and the use of scientific data to position one scientist against another when there is no inherent conflict. This work will highlight the need for climate policy makers to increase support for scientists working in the Arctic, as well as illustrate why it is important to find new and more effective ways of communicating scientific data. Strategies that might be considered by granting agencies, scientists and climate policy decision-makers will also be discussed.

  20. Health and climate policy impacts on sulfur emission control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ming, Yi; Russell, Lynn M.; Bradford, David F.

    2005-12-01

    Sulfate aerosol from burning fossil fuels not only has strong cooling effects on the Earth's climate but also imposes substantial costs on human health. To assess the impact of addressing air pollution on climate policy, we incorporate both the climate and health effects of sulfate aerosol into an integrated-assessment model of fossil fuel emission control. Our simulations show that a policy that adjusts fossil fuel and sulfur emissions to address both warming and health simultaneously will support more stringent fossil fuel and sulfur controls. The combination of both climate and health objectives leads to an acceleration of global warming in the 21st century as a result of the short-term climate response to the decreased cooling from the immediate removal of short-lived sulfate aerosol. In the long term (more than 100 years), reducing sulfate aerosol emissions requires that we decrease fossil fuel combustion in general, thereby removing some of the coemitted carbon emissions and leading to a reduction in global warming.

  1. European food and nutrition policies in action. Finland's food and nutrition policy: progress, problems and recommendations.

    PubMed

    Milio, N

    1998-01-01

    Some progress has clearly been made in several aspects of Finland's food and nutrition policy: access to nutrition information and education, improvements in mass catering, increased availability of healthier food products, and pricing and quality requirements favourable to a healthy diet. Finnish eating patterns have improved in relation to some recommended foods and macronutrients. The structural changes in farm and food production are largely the result of new political and economic realities both in Finland and internationally, resulting in the Government focusing on fiscal efficiency, decentralization and a more competitive, consumer-oriented market. This new environment is creating pressures to reduce surplus animal fat production and to expand markets in new foods for Finns and other Europeans who, for reasons of demography, health or working or living arrangements, demand new and sometimes healthier foods. Within this context, some health leaders have been able to make and work for proposals that are consistent both with political and economic imperatives and with health needs. Although the populations health status is improving and in some respects is exemplary, diet-related death and illness rates and risk factors (such as serum cholesterol and obesity) are high and their decline, along with some healthy changes in eating patterns, has slowed since the mid-1980s (ironically, since the adoption of the nutrition policy). The more slowly improvements occur, the higher will be the social and economic costs. Major problems in policy implementation exist. Although much has been done in research and demonstration and in the development of national guidelines (in public catering and labeling, for example) there is an apparent lag in translating such soft technology into action and monitoring its implementation in order to develop corrective measures at the operational level. This problem may increase with decentralized budget control and a less regulated market

  2. The Emergent European Educational Policies under Scrutiny: The Bologna Process from a Central European Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwiek, Marek

    2004-01-01

    In this article, the Bologna Process and the European Research Area are viewed as the two sides of the same coin: that of the redefinition of the missions of the institution of the university. The Bologna Process is viewed as relatively closed to global developments: as largely inward-looking, focused on European regional problems (and European…

  3. Diminished States? National Power in European Education Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kupfer, Antonia

    2008-01-01

    The increasing research on international organisations' education policy lacks analyses of the relation between international organisations and nation states. This paper aims to analyse the power of nation states in international education policy. Focusing on the new degree system in higher education in Europe, partly from Foucault's…

  4. Core Elements of the European (Higher) Education Policy: Market-Driven Restructuring or Impetus for Intercultural Rapprochement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Starkie, Elisa Gavari

    2008-01-01

    For many years there has been a debate about the existence or not, of a common European education policy. In this article I argue that there has been a real European education policy since the approval of the Maastricht Treaty, with a proper content and which offers many new possibilities to students. The core of this policy is the setting up of…

  5. European Innovation Policy Concepts and the Governance of Innovation: Slovenia and the Struggle for Organizational Readiness at the National Level

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gebhardt, Christiane; Stanovnik, Peter

    2016-01-01

    This paper examines the interdependency of European Policy and governance of innovation. The authors elaborate on the policy implementation context of Slovenia, a small and less advanced European member state in a transition process. The literature on innovation policy, governance and existing innovation concepts aiming to accelerate economic…

  6. Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the need for strict climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lontzek, Thomas S.; Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.

    2015-05-01

    Perhaps the most `dangerous’ aspect of future climate change is the possibility that human activities will push parts of the climate system past tipping points, leading to irreversible impacts. The likelihood of such large-scale singular events is expected to increase with global warming, but is fundamentally uncertain. A key question is how should the uncertainty surrounding tipping events affect climate policy? We address this using a stochastic integrated assessment model, based on the widely used deterministic DICE model. The temperature-dependent likelihood of tipping is calibrated using expert opinions, which we find to be internally consistent. The irreversible impacts of tipping events are assumed to accumulate steadily over time (rather than instantaneously), consistent with scientific understanding. Even with conservative assumptions about the rate and impacts of a stochastic tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by ~50%. For a plausibly rapid, high-impact tipping event, today’s optimal carbon tax is increased by >200%. The additional carbon tax to delay climate tipping grows at only about half the rate of the baseline carbon tax. This implies that the effective discount rate for the costs of stochastic climate tipping is much lower than the discount rate for deterministic climate damages. Our results support recent suggestions that the costs of carbon emission used to inform policy are being underestimated, and that uncertain future climate damages should be discounted at a low rate.

  7. The Unions and the Relaunching of European Social Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Guasconi, Maria Eleonora

    2004-01-01

    The question of European trade unions' approach towards vocational training is an interesting example of a broader issue, involving both the role played by non-governmental actors in shaping the social dimension of the integration process, and the need to develop a social dialogue in the Community. In this context, the establishment of Cedefop in…

  8. Globalisation, Southern Europe and European Adult Education Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Borg, Carmel; Mayo, Peter

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the authors define some of the most evident features of globalisation from below, which they distinguish from hegemonic globalisation, and draw out its implications for adult education. They draw out the implications for European adult education that emerge from the different features of these two types of globalisations. They…

  9. Global Climate Change and Society: Scientific, Policy, and Philosophic Themes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frodeman, R.; Bullock, M. A.

    2001-12-01

    The summer of 2001 saw the inauguration of the Global Climate Change and Society Program (GCCS), an eight week, NSF-funded experiment in undergraduate pedagogy held at the University of Colorado and the National Center for Atmospheric Research. Acknowledging from the start that climate change is more than a scientific problem, GCCS began with the simultaneous study of basic atmospheric physics, classical and environmental philosophy, and public policy. In addition to lectures and discussions on these subjects, our twelve undergraduates (majoring in the physical sciences, social sciences, and humanities) also participated in internships with scholars and researchers at NCAR, University of Colorado's Center of the American West, and the Colorado School of Mines, on specific issues in atmospheric science, science policy, and ethics and values. This talk will discuss the outcomes of GCCS: specifically, new insights into interdisciplinary pedagogy and the student creation of an extraordinary "deliverable," a group summary assessment of the global climate change debate. The student assessment called for an integrated discussion of both the science of climate change and the human values related to how we inhabit the world. The problems facing society today cannot be addressed through the single-minded adherence to science and technology; instead, society must develop new means of integrating the humanities and science in a meaningful dialogue about our common future.

  10. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-19

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents' attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals' demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several "upstream" climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

  11. Using decision pathway surveys to inform climate engineering policy choices

    PubMed Central

    Gregory, Robin; Satterfield, Terre; Hasell, Ariel

    2016-01-01

    Over the coming decades citizens living in North America and Europe will be asked about a variety of new technological and behavioral initiatives intended to mitigate the worst impacts of climate change. A common approach to public input has been surveys whereby respondents’ attitudes about climate change are explained by individuals’ demographic background, values, and beliefs. In parallel, recent deliberative research seeks to more fully address the complex value tradeoffs linked to novel technologies and difficult ethical questions that characterize leading climate mitigation alternatives. New methods such as decision pathway surveys may offer important insights for policy makers by capturing much of the depth and reasoning of small-group deliberations while meeting standard survey goals including large-sample stakeholder engagement. Pathway surveys also can help participants to deepen their factual knowledge base and arrive at a more complete understanding of their own values as they apply to proposed policy alternatives. The pathway results indicate more fully the conditional and context-specific nature of support for several “upstream” climate interventions, including solar radiation management techniques and carbon dioxide removal technologies. PMID:26729883

  12. Climate Change Boot Camps: Targeting Policy Makers and Outreach Trainers in Arizona to Improve Climate Literacy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferguson, D. B.; Guido, Z. S.; Buizer, J.; Roy, M.

    2010-12-01

    Bringing climate change issues into focus for decision makers is a growing challenge. Decision makers are often confronted with unique informational needs, a lack of useable information, and needs for customized climate change training, among other issues. Despite significant progress in improving climate literacy among certain stakeholders such as water managers, recent reports have highlighted the growing demand for climate-change information in regions and sectors across the US. In recent years many ventures have sprung up to address these gaps and have predominantly focused on K-12 education and resource management agencies such as the National Park Service and National Weather Service. However, two groups that are critical for integrating climate information into actions have received less attention: (1) policy makers and (2) outreach experts, such as Cooperative Extension agents. Climate Change Boot Camps (CCBC) is a joint effort between the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS)—a NOAA Regionally Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program—and researchers at Arizona State University to diagnose climate literacy and training gaps in Arizona and develop a process that converts these deficiencies into actionable knowledge among the two aforementioned groups. This presentation will highlight the initial phases of the CCBC process, which has as its outcomes the identification of effective strategies for reaching legislators, climate literacy and training needs for both policy makers and trainers, and effective metrics to evaluate the success of these efforts. Specific attention is given to evaluating the process from initial needs assessment to the effectiveness of the workshops. Web curriculum and training models made available on the internet will also be developed, drawing on extensive existing Web resources for other training efforts and converted to meet the needs of these two groups. CCBC will also leverage CLIMAS’ long history of

  13. Biological and Environmental Research: Climate and Environmental Sciences Division: U.S./European Workshop on Climate Change Challenges and Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Mather, James; McCord, Raymond; Sisterson, Doug; Voyles, Jimmy

    2012-11-08

    The workshop aimed to identify outstanding climate change science questions and the observational strategies for addressing them. The scientific focus was clouds, aerosols, and precipitation, and the required ground- and aerial-based observations. The workshop findings will be useful input for setting priorities within the Department of Energy (DOE) and the participating European centers. This joint workshop was envisioned as the first step in enhancing the collaboration among these climate research activities needed to better serve the science community.

  14. Key uncertainties in climate change policy: Results from ICAM-2

    SciTech Connect

    Dowlatabadi, H.; Kandlikar, M.

    1995-12-31

    A critical aspect of climate change decision-making is uncertainties in current understanding of the socioeconomic, climatic and biogeochemical processes involved. Decision-making processes are much better informed if these uncertainties are characterized and their implications understood. Quantitative analysis of these uncertainties serve to: inform decision makers about the likely outcome of policy initiatives; and help set priorities for research so that outcome ambiguities faced by the decision-makers are reduced. A family of integrated assessment models of climate change have been developed at Carnegie Mellon. These models are distinguished from other integrated assessment efforts in that they were designed from the outset to characterize and propagate parameter, model, value, and decision-rule uncertainties. The most recent of these models is ICAM 2.0. This model includes demographics, economic activities, emissions, atmospheric chemistry, climate change, sea level rise and other impact modules and the numerous associated feedbacks. The model has over 700 objects of which over 1/3 are uncertain. These have been grouped into seven different classes of uncertain items. The impact of uncertainties in each of these items can be considered individually or in combinations with the others. In this paper we demonstrate the relative contribution of various sources of uncertainty to different outcomes in the model. The analysis shows that climatic uncertainties are most important, followed by uncertainties in damage calculations, economic uncertainties and direct aerosol forcing uncertainties. Extreme uncertainties in indirect aerosol forcing and behavioral response to climate change (adaptation) were characterized by using bounding analyses; the results suggest that these extreme uncertainties can dominate the choice of policy outcomes.

  15. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age

    PubMed Central

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T.; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-01-01

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological 14C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change. PMID:25404290

  16. Rapid climate change did not cause population collapse at the end of the European Bronze Age.

    PubMed

    Armit, Ian; Swindles, Graeme T; Becker, Katharina; Plunkett, Gill; Blaauw, Maarten

    2014-12-01

    The impact of rapid climate change on contemporary human populations is of global concern. To contextualize our understanding of human responses to rapid climate change it is necessary to examine the archeological record during past climate transitions. One episode of abrupt climate change has been correlated with societal collapse at the end of the northwestern European Bronze Age. We apply new methods to interrogate archeological and paleoclimate data for this transition in Ireland at a higher level of precision than has previously been possible. We analyze archeological (14)C dates to demonstrate dramatic population collapse and present high-precision proxy climate data, analyzed through Bayesian methods, to provide evidence for a rapid climatic transition at ca. 750 calibrated years B.C. Our results demonstrate that this climatic downturn did not initiate population collapse and highlight the nondeterministic nature of human responses to past climate change. PMID:25404290

  17. Current practices and future opportunities for policy on climate change and invasive species.

    PubMed

    Pyke, Christopher R; Thomas, Roxanne; Porter, Read D; Hellmann, Jessica J; Dukes, Jeffrey S; Lodge, David M; Chavarria, Gabriela

    2008-06-01

    Climate change and invasive species are often treated as important, but independent, issues. Nevertheless, they have strong connections: changes in climate and societal responses to climate change may exacerbate the impacts of invasive species, whereas invasive species may affect the magnitude, rate, and impact of climate change. We argue that the design and implementation of climate-change policy in the United States should specifically consider the implications for invasive species; conversely, invasive-species policy should address consequences for climate change. The development of such policies should be based on (1) characterization of interactions between invasive species and climate change, (2) identification of areas where climate-change policies could negatively affect invasive-species management, and (3) identification of areas where policies could benefit from synergies between climate change and invasive-species management. PMID:18577088

  18. The unequal health of Europeans: successes and failures of policies.

    PubMed

    Mackenbach, Johan P; Karanikolos, Marina; McKee, Martin

    2013-03-30

    Europe, with its 53 countries and divided history, is a remarkable but inadequately exploited natural laboratory for studies of the eff ects of health policy. In this paper, the fi rst in a Series about health in Europe, we review developments in population health in Europe, with a focus on trends in mortality, and draw attention to the main successes and failures of health policy in the past four decades. In western Europe, life expectancy has improved almost continuously, but progress has been erratic in eastern Europe, and, as a result, disparities in male life expectancy between the two areas are greater now than they were four decades ago. The falls in mortality noted in western Europe are associated with many different causes of death and show the combined eff ects of economic growth, improved health care, and successful health policies (eg, tobacco control, road traffic safety). Less favourable mortality trends in eastern Europe show economic and health-care problems and a failure to implement effective health policies. The political history of Europe has left deep divisions in the health of the population. Important health challenges remain in both western and eastern Europe and signify unresolved issues in health policy (eg, alcohol, food) and rising health inequalities within countries. PMID:23541053

  19. Frames in contestation: gendering domestic violence policies in five central and eastern European countries.

    PubMed

    Krizsan, Andrea; Popa, Raluca Maria

    2014-07-01

    The article looks at the translation of international norms on domestic violence to the national level in five Central and Eastern European countries. It argues that translation brings a concept of domestic violence, which stretches gender equality ideas underpinning international norms so as to be easier to endorse by mainstream policy actors, and results in policies framed in degendered individual rights terms. The potential for keeping gender equality in focus is then guaranteed by gendering policy processes through empowerment of gender equality actors at all stages. Absence of ownership of the policy by gender equality actors risks co-optation by frames contesting gender equality. PMID:25053673

  20. Tensions in water management: Dutch tradition and European policy.

    PubMed

    Ravesteijn, W; Kroesen, O

    2007-01-01

    Present-day worldwide water problems require new management tools and sustainable system innovations. At Delft University of Technology research is being carried out into water resources and management development aimed at forming such tools and innovations, focused on Integrated River Basin Management (IRBM). One of the case-studies deals with Dutch water management and technology in the context of European IRBM in the form of the 2000 Water Frame Directive. The Netherlands experience many water problems and European IRBM could bring help by offering a framework for both international cooperation and technological innovations. To work as an adequate management tool European IRBM should be tailored to the Dutch water tradition, which recently culminated in Integrated Water Management. Both approaches are in some respects contradicting. Europe pursues, for example, centralized control; while the Dutch have their strongly water boards based decentralized administration. The tensions between both approaches require mutual adaptation, for which the concept of subsidiarity might offer points of departure. This paper describes the first results of the case-research into Dutch water management and technology in the context of Europe as well as the backgrounds and the set-up of the research as a whole. PMID:17851211

  1. Effectiveness of a segmental approach to climate policy.

    PubMed

    Trancik, Jessika E; Chang, Michael T; Karapataki, Christina; Stokes, Leah C

    2014-01-01

    Resistance to adopting a cap on greenhouse gas emissions internationally, and across various national contexts, has encouraged alternative climate change mitigation proposals. These proposals include separately targeting clean energy uptake and demand-side efficiency in individual end-use sectors, an approach to climate change mitigation which we characterize as segmental and technology-centered. A debate has ensued on the detailed implementation of these policies in particular national contexts, but less attention has been paid to the general factors determining the effectiveness of a segmental approach to emissions reduction. We address this topic by probing the interdependencies of segmental policies and their collective ability to control emissions. First, we show for the case of U.S. electricity how the set of suitable energy technologies depends on demand-side efficiency, and changes with the stringency of climate targets. Under a high-efficiency scenario, carbon-free technologies must supply 60-80% of U.S. electricity demand to meet an emissions reduction target of 80% below 1990 levels by midcentury. Second, we quantify the enhanced propensity to exceed any intended emissions target with this approach, even if goals are set on both the supply and demand side, due to the multiplicative accumulation of emissions error. For example, a 10% error in complying with separate policies on the demand and supply side would combine to result in a 20% error in emissions. Third, we discuss why despite these risks, the enhanced planning capability of a segmental approach may help counteract growing infrastructural inertia. The emissions reduction impediment due to infrastructural inertia is significant in the electricity sectors of each of the greatest emitters: China, the U.S., and Europe. Commonly cited climate targets are still within reach but, as we show, would require more than a 50% reduction in the carbon intensity of new power plants built in these regions over

  2. The limits of scientific information for informing forest policy decisions under changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McLachlan, J. S.

    2011-12-01

    The distribution of tree species is largely determined by climate, with important consequences for ecosystem function, biodiversity, and the human economy. In the past, conflicts about priority among these various goods have produced persistent debate about forest policy and management. Despite this history of conflict, there has been general agreement on the framework for the debate: Our benchmark for assessing human impact is generally some historical condition (in the New World, this is often pre-European settlement). Wilderness is to be managed with minimal human intervention. Native species are preferred over non-natives. And regional landscapes can be effectively partitioned into independent jurisdictions with different management priorities. Each of these principles was always somewhat mythical, but the dynamics of broad scale species range shifts under climate change make all of them untenable in the future. Managed relocation (MR, or assisted migration) is a controversial proposal partly because it demands scientific answers that we do not have: Are trees naturally capable of shifting their ranges as fast as climate will force them? Will deliberate introductions of species beyond their native ranges have adverse impacts on the receiving ecosystem? What are appropriate targets for hydrologic or fire management under novel no-analog climates? However, these demands on science mask a more fundamental concern: the ethical framework underlying existing forest policy is unsupported in the context of long-term non-stationary environmental trends. Whether or not we conclude that MR is a useful policy option, debate about MR is useful because it forces us to place the global change ecology agenda in a larger ethical debate about our goals when managing novel ecosystems.

  3. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS

    SciTech Connect

    McCollum, David; Nagai, Yu; Riahi, Keywan; Marangoni, Giacomo; Calvin, Katherine V.; Pietzcker, Robert; Van Vliet, Jasper; van der Zwaan, Bob

    2013-11-01

    The levels of investment needed to mobilize an energy system transformation and mitigate climate change are not known with certainty. This paper aims to inform the ongoing dialogue and in so doing to guide public policy and strategic corporate decision making. Within the framework of the LIMITS integrated assessment model comparison exercise, we analyze a multi-IAM ensemble of long-term energy and greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. Our study provides insight into several critical but uncertain areas related to the future investment environment, for example in terms of where capital expenditures may need to flow regionally, into which sectors they might be concentrated, and what policies could be helpful in spurring these financial resources. We find that stringent climate policies consistent with a 2°C climate change target would require a considerable upscaling of investments into low-carbon energy and energy efficiency, reaching approximately $45 trillion (range: $30–$75 trillion) cumulative between 2010 and 2050, or about $1.1 trillion annually. This represents an increase of some $30 trillion ($10–$55 trillion), or $0.8 trillion per year, beyond what investments might otherwise be in a reference scenario that assumes the continuation of present and planned emissions-reducing policies throughout the world. In other words, a substantial "clean-energy investment gap" of some $800 billion/yr exists — notably on the same order of magnitude as present-day subsidies for fossil energy and electricity worldwide ($523 billion). Unless the gap is filled rather quickly, the 2°C target could potentially become out of reach.

  4. Climate-agriculture interactions and needs for policy making

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Phillips, J. G.

    2010-12-01

    Research exploring climate change interactions with agriculture has evolved from simplistic “delta T” simulation experiments with crop models to work highlighting the importance of climate variability and extreme events, which characterized the negative impacts possible if no adaptation occurred. There soon followed consideration of socioeconomic factors allowing for adaptive strategies that are likely to mitigate the worst case outcomes originally projected. At the same time, improved understanding of biophysical feedbacks has led to a greater recognition of the role that agriculture plays in modifying climate, with a great deal of attention recently paid to strategies to enhance carbon sequestration in agricultural systems. Advances in models of biogeochemical cycling applied to agronomic systems have allowed for new insights into greenhouse gas emissions and sinks associated with current, conventional farming systems. Yet this work is still relatively simplistic in that it seldom addresses interactions between climate dynamics, adoption of mitigation strategies, and feedbacks to the climate system and the surrounding environment. In order for agricultural policy to be developed that provides incentives for appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies over the next 50 years, a systems approach needs to be utilized that addresses feedbacks and interactions at field, farm and regional scales in a broader environmental context. Interactions between carbon and climate constraints on the one hand, and environmental impacts related to water, nutrient runoff, and pest control all imply a transformation of farming practices that is as of yet not well defined. Little attention has been paid to studying the implications of “alternative” farming strategies such as organic systems, intensive rotational grazing of livestock, or increases in the perennial component of farmscapes, all of which may be necessary responses to energy and other environmental constraints

  5. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Petermann, Nils; Krey, Volker; Schwanitz, Jana; Luderer, Gunnar; Ashina, Shuichi; Bosetti, Valentina; Eom, Jiyong; Kitous, Alban; Mejean, Aurelie; Paroussos, Leonidas; Sano, Fuminori; Turton, Hal; Wilson, Charlie; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economic systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. This article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of integrated assessment models to classify differences among models based on their carbon price responses. Model diagnostics can uncover patterns and provide insights into why, under a given scenario, certain types of models behave in observed ways. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study with 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to more easily explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

  6. Elevation Gradients of 21st Century European Climate Change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, S.; Lüthi, D.; Pall, P.; Schär, C.

    2010-09-01

    Given the importance of mountain regions for large-scale water supply and a high vulnerability of alpine ecosystems, elevation gradients of future climate change and possible modifications of large-scale climate change signals in mountain regions are of high interest for climate impact assessment. In this study, a transient climate scenario of the CLM regional climate model is evaluated with respect to the elevation dependency of surface climate change (near-surface air temperature, precipitation, snow cover) in Europe. The RCM experiment was carried out for the period 1950-2099 at a spatial resolution of 25 km and using a HadCM3 simulation as lateral driving data. For near-surface air temperature, the analysis reveals that in many regions climate change signals are subject to an elevation dependency. High altitudes typically experience a stronger warming which can in many cases be related to a decrease in snow cover and a corresponding decrease of surface albedo. Often, differences in the warming signal become more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century. Despite larger warming rates at high altitudes, we cannot identify a clear potential of high-altitude warming as an early detection tool for larger-scale warming. Also precipitation changes vary with altitude, especially during the summer season. Over most parts of Europe the relative change in summer precipitation is larger at low elevations. The reasons for the simulated elevation gradients of surface climate change are manifold and vary from region to region, in particular for precipitation. Our analysis will put a special focus on the Alps, where elevation gradients are most pronounced and where high altitudes cover a considerable fraction of the total surface area.

  7. Biophysical impact of forestation on European climate, as simulated by the RCM COSMO-CLM2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vanden Broucke, Sam; Van Lipzig, Nicole; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Janssens, Ivan

    2013-04-01

    In recent years, afforestation has been proposed as a promising strategy for climate change mitigation. However, when discussing the potential place of forestry in climate change mitigation policy, the biophysical impact of forestation, which could potentially offset or enhance biochemical cooling at the regional scale, is often overlooked. Several studies have therefore tried to quantify the biophysical effects of forestation for Europe, often resulting in conflicting conclusions. For example, while simulations with a GCM show that forestation leads to a mean temperature warming in all mid-latitude climates, some regional simulations for Europe indicate the opposite, and suggest that increased forestation cools the surface by increasing evapotranspiration and precipitation. The goal of this study is to contribute to the understanding of the biophysical impact of forestation in Europe. As a tool, we use the regional climate model COSMO-CLM2, a version of the non-hydrostatic atmospheric COSMO-CLM model coupled to the Community Land Model. Two one-year simulations were performed: a reference run with default vegetation and a sensitivity run replacing all forest with grassland/tundra. In addition to these model runs, observations for model validation were acquired through FLUXNET, a database of long term ground based ecosystem monitoring using the eddy covariance technique. Results show strong seasonal and regional differences in the sensitivity of local climate to forestation. The presence of temperate forests on the European mainland leads to a small to moderate biophysical warming of the lower boundary layer (0 to 0.5 K), compared to grassland. The effect is mostly limited to daytime temperatures, and can be attributed to a decrease in reflectivity, which leads to higher sunlight absorption and a relatively small increase in the sensible heat flux coming from the soil vegetation complex (+10%, on average), as well as an increase in latent heat (+2.5%, on average

  8. Predictors of African American and European American adolescents' endorsement of race-conscious social policies.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Julie Milligan; Bigler, Rebecca S

    2011-03-01

    To examine the predictors of adolescents' evaluations of affirmative action and school desegregation policies, African American and European American students (ns = 94 and 116, respectively; aged 14 to 17 years) attending a racially diverse high school in the Midwestern United States completed measures of (a) implicit racial attitudes, (b) knowledge about historical racism, and (c) perceptions of and attributions for racial disparities. The following day, adolescents learned about either a proposed affirmative action policy (n = 101) or a school desegregation policy (n = 109) and completed measures of their attitudes toward the policy. Results indicated racial differences in policy support and in the factors predicting policy support. Theoretical implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:21142372

  9. The state of Health in All policies (HiAP) in the European Union: potential and pitfalls.

    PubMed

    Koivusalo, Meri

    2010-06-01

    Health in All Policies (HiAP) was formally legitimated as a European Union (EU) approach in 2006. It resulted from more long-term efforts to enhance action on considering health and health policy implications of other policies, as well as recognition that European-level policies affect health systems and scope for health-related regulation at national level. However, implementation of HiAP has remained a challenge. European-level efforts to use health impact assessment to benefit public health and health systems have not become strengthened by the new procedures. And, as a result of the Lisbon Treaty, European-level policy-making is expected to become more important in shaping national policies. HiAP has at European level remained mostly as rhetoric, but legitimate health arguments and provides policy space for health articulation within EU policy-making. HiAP is a broader approach than health impact assessment and at European level requires consideration of mechanisms that recognise the nature of European policy-making, as well as extending from administrative tools to increased transparency, accountability and scope for health and health policy-related arguments within political decision-making in the EU. PMID:20466719

  10. Integrated assessment of climate change: Characterizing key policy issues

    SciTech Connect

    Turner, R.S.; O`Hara, F.M. Jr.

    1996-02-01

    A multidisciplinary, multiagency workshop was convened by the US Department of Energy in Washington, DC, June 29-30,1994. The goal of the workshop was to define key policy issues related to global climate change and the types of information pertaining to these issues that decision makers would find most useful. The workshop was organized by the Center for Global Environmental Studies and the Environmental Sciences Division, both of Oak Ridge National Laboratory, in cooperation with a steering committee composed of seven national laboratories.

  11. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps

    PubMed Central

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2011-01-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O3) and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics. Presently, ambient ground-level O3 concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO2 Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees. Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation. In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

  12. Effects of atmospheric and climate change at the timberline of the Central European Alps.

    PubMed

    Wieser, Gerhard; Matyssek, Rainer; Luzian, Roland; Zwerger, Peter; Pindur, Peter; Oberhuber, Walter; Gruber, Andreas

    2009-06-01

    This review considers potential effects of atmospheric change and climate warming within the timberline ecotone of the Central European Alps. After focusing on the impacts of ozone (O(3)) and rising atmospheric CO(2) concentration, effects of climate warming on the carbon and water balance of timberline trees and forests will be outlined towards conclusions about changes in tree growth and treeline dynamics.Presently, ambient ground-level O(3) concentrations do not exert crucial stress on adult conifers at the timberline of the Central European Alps. In response to elevated atmospheric CO(2)Larix decidua showed growth increase, whereas no such response was found in Pinus uncinata. Overall climate warming appears as the factor responsible for the observed growth stimulation of timberline trees.Increased seedling re-establishment in the Central European Alps however, resulted from invasion into potential habitats rather than upward migration due to climate change, although seedlings will only reach tree size upon successful coupling with the atmosphere and thus loosing the beneficial microclimate of low stature vegetation.In conclusion, future climate extremes are more likely than the gradual temperature increase to control treeline dynamics in the Central European Alps. PMID:21379395

  13. Climate implications of including albedo effects in terrestrial carbon policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, A. D.; Collins, W.; Torn, M. S.; Calvin, K. V.

    2012-12-01

    Proposed strategies for managing terrestrial carbon in order to mitigate anthropogenic climate change, such as financial incentives for afforestation, soil carbon sequestration, or biofuel production, largely ignore the direct effects of land use change on climate via biophysical processes that alter surface energy and water budgets. Subsequent influences on temperature, hydrology, and atmospheric circulation at regional and global scales could potentially help or hinder climate stabilization efforts. Because these policies often rely on payments or credits expressed in units of CO2-equivalents, accounting for biophysical effects would require a metric for comparing the strength of biophysical climate perturbation from land use change to that of emitting CO2. One such candidate metric that has been suggested in the literature on land use impacts is radiative forcing, which underlies the global warming potential metric used to compare the climate effects of various greenhouse gases with one another. Expressing land use change in units of radiative forcing is possible because albedo change results in a net top-of-atmosphere radiative flux change. However, this approach has also been critiqued on theoretical grounds because not all climatic changes associated with land use change are principally radiative in nature, e.g. changes in hydrology or the vertical distribution of heat within the atmosphere, and because the spatial scale of land use change forcing differs from that of well-mixed greenhouse gases. To explore the potential magnitude of this discrepancy in the context of plausible scenarios of future land use change, we conduct three simulations with the Community Climate System Model 4 (CCSM4) utilizing a slab ocean model. Each simulation examines the effect of a stepwise change in forcing relative to a pre-industrial control simulation: 1) widespread conversion of forest land to crops resulting in approximately 1 W/m2 global-mean radiative forcing from albedo

  14. Climate Mitigation Policy Implications for Global Irrigation Water Demand

    SciTech Connect

    Chaturvedi, Vaibhav; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Edmonds, James A.; Clarke, Leon E.; Kyle, G. Page; Davies, Evan; Wise, Marshall A.

    2013-08-22

    Energy, water and land are scarce resources, critical to humans. Developments in each affect the availability and cost of the others, and consequently human prosperity. Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will inevitably exact dramatic changes on energy and land systems and in turn alter the character, magnitude and geographic distribution of human claims on water resources. We employ the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), an integrated assessment model to explore the interactions of energy, land and water systems in the context of alternative policies to limit climate change to three alternative levels: 2.5 Wm-2 (445 ppm CO2-e), 3.5 Wm-2 (535 ppm CO2-e) and 4.5 Wm-2 (645 ppm CO2-e). We explore the effects of alternative land-use emissions mitigation policy options—one which values terrestrial carbon emissions equally with fossil fuel and industrial emissions, and an alternative which places no penalty on land-use change emissions. We find that increasing populations and economic growth could be anticipated to lead to increased demand for water for agricultural systems (+200%), even in the absence of climate change. In general policies to mitigate climate change will increase agricultural demands for water, regardless of whether or not terrestrial carbon is valued or not. Burgeoning demands for water are driven by the demand for bioenergy in response to emissions mitigation policies. We also find that the policy matters. Increases in the demand for water when terrestrial carbon emissions go un-prices are vastly larger than when terrestrial system carbon emissions are prices at the same rate as fossil fuel and industrial emissions. Our estimates for increased water demands when terrestrial carbon systems go un-priced are larger than earlier studies. We find that the deployment of improved irrigation delivery systems could mitigate some of the increase in water demands, but cannot reverse the increases in water demands when terrestrial carbon

  15. Policy recommendations and cost implications for a more sustainable framework for European human biomonitoring surveys.

    PubMed

    Joas, Anke; Knudsen, Lisbeth E; Kolossa-Gehring, Marike; Sepai, Ovnair; Casteleyn, Ludwine; Schoeters, Greet; Angerer, Jürgen; Castaño, Argelia; Aerts, Dominique; Biot, Pierre; Horvat, Milena; Bloemen, Louis; Reis, M Fátima; Lupsa, Ioana-Rodica; Katsonouri, Andromachi; Cerna, Milena; Berglund, Marika; Crettaz, Pierre; Rudnai, Peter; Halzlova, Katarina; Mulcahy, Maurice; Gutleb, Arno C; Fischer, Marc E; Becher, Georg; Fréry, Nadine; Jensen, Genon; Van Vliet, Lisette; Koch, Holger M; Den Hond, Elly; Fiddicke, Ulrike; Esteban, Marta; Exley, Karen; Schwedler, Gerda; Seiwert, Margarete; Ligocka, Danuta; Hohenblum, Philipp; Kyrtopoulos, Soterios; Botsivali, Maria; DeFelip, Elena; Guillou, Claude; Reniero, Fabiano; Grazuleviciene, Regina; Veidebaum, Toomas; Mørck, Thit A; Nielsen, Jeanette K S; Jensen, Janne F; Rivas, Teresa C; Sanchez, Jinny; Koppen, Gudrun; Smolders, Roel; Kozepesy, Szilvia; Hadjipanayis, Adamos; Krskova, Andrea; Mannion, Rory; Jakubowski, Marek; Fucic, J Aleksandra; Pereira-Miguel, Jose; Gurzau, Anca E; Jajcaj, Michal; Mazej, Darja; Tratnik, Janja Snoj; Lehmann, Andrea; Larsson, Kristin; Dumez, Birgit; Joas, Reinhard

    2015-08-01

    The potential of Human Biomonitoring (HBM) in exposure characterisation and risk assessment is well established in the scientific HBM community and regulatory arena by many publications. The European Environment and Health Strategy as well as the Environment and Health Action Plan 2004-2010 of the European Commission recognised the value of HBM and the relevance and importance of coordination of HBM programmes in Europe. Based on existing and planned HBM projects and programmes of work and capabilities in Europe the Seventh Framework Programme (FP 7) funded COPHES (COnsortium to Perform Human Biomonitoring on a European Scale) to advance and improve comparability of HBM data across Europe. The pilot study protocol was tested in 17 European countries in the DEMOCOPHES feasibility study (DEMOnstration of a study to COordinate and Perform Human biomonitoring on a European Scale) cofunded (50%) under the LIFE+ programme of the European Commission. The potential of HBM in supporting and evaluating policy making (including e.g. REACH) and in awareness raising on environmental health, should significantly advance the process towards a fully operational, continuous, sustainable and scientifically based EU HBM programme. From a number of stakeholder activities during the past 10 years and the national engagement, a framework for sustainable HBM structure in Europe is recommended involving national institutions within environment, health and food as well as European institutions such as ECHA, EEA, and EFSA. An economic frame with shared cost implications for national and European institutions is suggested benefitting from the capacity building set up by COPHES/DEMOCOPHES. PMID:25526891

  16. Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy: Partnering with Decision-Makers in Climate Change Adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, D.; Trainor, S.; Walsh, J.; Gerlach, C.

    2008-12-01

    The Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP; www.uaf.edu/accap) is one of several, NOAA funded, Regional Integrated Science and Policy (RISA) programs nation-wide (http://www.climate.noaa.gov/cpo_pa/risa/). Our mission is to assess the socio-economic and biophysical impacts of climate variability in Alaska, make this information available to local and regional decision-makers, and improve the ability of Alaskans to adapt to a changing climate. We partner with the University of Alaska?s Scenario Network for Alaska Planning (SNAP; http://www.snap.uaf.edu/), state and local government, state and federal agencies, industry, and non-profit organizations to communicate accurate and up-to-date climate science and assist in formulating adaptation and mitigation plans. ACCAP and SNAP scientists are members of the Governor?s Climate Change Sub-Cabinet Adaptation and Mitigation Advisory and Technical Working Groups (http://www.climatechange.alaska.gov/), and apply their scientific expertise to provide down-scaled, state-wide maps of temperature and precipitation projections for these groups. An ACCAP scientist also serves as co-chair for the Fairbanks North Star Borough Climate Change Task Force, assisting this group as they work through the five-step model for climate change planning put forward by the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives (http://www.investfairbanks.com/Taskforces/climate.php). ACCAP scientists work closely with federal resource managers in on a range of projects including: partnering with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to analyze hydrologic changes associated with climate change and related ecological impacts and wildlife management and development issues on Alaska?s North Slope; partnering with members of the Alaska Interagency Wildland Fire Coordinating Group in statistical modeling to predict seasonal wildfire activity and coordinate fire suppression resources state-wide; and working with Alaska Native Elders and

  17. Multi-Level Steering and Institution Building: The European Union's Approach to Research Policy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Young, Mitchell

    2012-01-01

    Adopting the conception of the university as a primary driver of innovation and economic growth has brought increased pressure for the European Union (EU) to actively steer university-based research policy, despite its being outside of the EU's direct jurisdiction. While the open method of coordination (OMC) was developed for such situations, the…

  18. European Education Policy: A Historical and Critical Approach to Understanding the Impact of Neoliberalism in Europe

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Arriazu Muñoz, Rubén

    2015-01-01

    Education constitutes an essential core of the political strategies adopted in the European Union. From the Treaty of Paris in 1951, educational policy in Europe has been consolidated through a combination of programs in different levels and contexts. However, a neoliberal economic model has guided the implementation and development of these…

  19. The Involvement of the European Union in Career Guidance Policy: A Brief History

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Watts, A. G.; Sultana, Ronald G.; McCarthy, John

    2010-01-01

    The history of the involvement of the European Union in the development of policy related to career guidance is analysed in terms of three broad periods. In the first two of these, interventions were confined to pilot projects, exchanges and placements, study visits and studies/surveys, with particular attention to young people; whereas the period…

  20. Have Anglo-Saxon Concepts Really Influenced the Development of European Qualifications Policy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clarke, Linda; Winch, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers how far Anglo Saxon conceptions of vocational education and training have influenced European Union vocational education and training policy, especially given the disparate approaches to vocational education and training across Europe. Two dominant approaches can be identified: the dual system (exemplified by Germany); and…

  1. Children and ICT European Initiatives and Policies on Protecting Children Online

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wojniak, Justyna; Majorek, Marta

    2016-01-01

    The paper concerns the opportunities of use information and communication technologies for the education purposes. It presents key assumptions of the European Union policy concerning innovative methods of training and the prospects for their further development. As nowadays one can observe increasing activity of the children and young people in…

  2. Vocational Education and Training in European Social Policy from its Origins to Cedefop

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varsori, Antonio

    2004-01-01

    The article, based to a large extent on archive sources, looks at Cedefop's origins and the development of its activities up to its transfer to Thessaloniki in the mid-1990s. The foundations of a European policy on vocational training, starting with the ECSC, are firstly reviewed, looking at the first steps taken in the 1960s in this field by the…

  3. Predictors of African American and European American Adolescents' Endorsement of Race-Conscious Social Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hughes, Julie Milligan; Bigler, Rebecca S.

    2011-01-01

    To examine the predictors of adolescents' evaluations of affirmative action and school desegregation policies, African American and European American students (ns = 94 and 116, respectively; aged 14 to 17 years) attending a racially diverse high school in the Midwestern United States completed measures of (a) implicit racial attitudes, (b)…

  4. Designing Dreams or Constructing Contradictions? European Union Multifunctional Policies and the Polish Organic Farm Sector

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    De Master, Kathryn

    2012-01-01

    Analysts have heralded the principle of "multifunctionality" undergirding the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy "Second Pillar" support mechanisms as a "new...and strong paradigm" for agriculture (van der Ploeg and Roep 2003), with the potential to re-embed social, environmental, and ethical concerns into the structure of the…

  5. Good practices and health policy analysis in European sports stadia: results from the 'Healthy Stadia' project.

    PubMed

    Drygas, Wojciech; Ruszkowska, Joanna; Philpott, Matthew; Björkström, Olav; Parker, Mike; Ireland, Robin; Roncarolo, Federico; Tenconi, Maria

    2013-06-01

    Sport plays an important role within society and sports stadia provide significant settings for public health strategies. In addition to being places of mass gathering, stadia are often located in less affluent areas and are traditionally attended by 'harder to reach' communities. Unfortunately sports stadia and the clubs they host are rarely perceived as places that promote healthy lifestyles. Fast food, alcohol and tobacco are commonly advertized, served and consumed during sports games giving the spectators and TV fans contradictory messages concerning healthy choices. As part of a wider programme of work part-funded by the European Union, a study was therefore designed to explore current 'good practice' relating to positive health interventions in sports stadia across a number of European countries. Using a specially designed questionnaire, information about health policies and good practices relating to food offerings in stadia, physical activity promotion among local communities, tobacco policy, positive mental health initiatives, environmental sustainability practices and social responsibility policies were collected in 10 European countries (England and Northern Ireland, Finland, Georgia, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Poland, Spain and Sweden) involving 88 stadia. The audit results show that stadia health policies differ considerably between specific countries and sports. Based on the literature analysed, the examples of good practices collected through the study, and the subsequent instigation of a European Healthy Stadia Network, it shows that there is considerable potential for stadia to become health promoting settings. PMID:22139638

  6. Climate change in China and China's policies and actions for addressing climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qin, D.; Huang, J.; Luo, Y.

    2010-12-01

    Since the first assessment report (FAR) of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, the international scientific community has made substantial progresses in climate change sciences. Changes in components of climate system, including the atmosphere, oceans and cryosphere, indicate that global warming is unequivocal. Instrumental records demonstrate that the global mean temperature has a significant increasing trend during the 20th century and in the latest 50 years the warming become faster. In the meantime, the global sea level has a strong increasing trend, as well as the snow coverage of Northern Hemisphere showed an obvious downward trend. Moreover, the global warming plays a key role in significantly affecting the climate system and social-economy on both global and regional scales, such as sea level rise, melting of mountain glaciers and ice sheets, desertification, deforestation, increase of weather extremes (typhoon, hurricane and rainstorm) and so on. The state of the art understanding of IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) was most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in the concentrations of anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Climate change issues, as a grave challenge to the sustainable development of the human society, have received ever greater attention from the international community. Deeply cognizant of the complexity and extensive influence of these issues and fully aware of the arduousness and urgency of the task of addressing climate change, the Chinese government is determined to address climate change in the process of pursuing sustainable development. The facts of climate change in China and its impacts, and China’s policies and actions for addressing climate change are introduced in this paper.

  7. Celebrity Climate Contrarians: Understanding a keystone species in contemporary climate science-policy-public interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boykoff, M. T.

    2012-12-01

    Since the 1980s, a keystone species called 'climate contrarians' has emerged and thrived. Through resistance to dominant interpretations of scientific evidence, and often outlier views on optimal responses to climate threats, contrarians have raised many meta-level questions: for instance, questions involve to what extent have their varied interventions been effective in terms of sparking a new and wise Copernican revolution; or do their amplified voices instead service entrenched carbon-based industry interests while they blend debates over 'climate change' with other culture wars? While the value of their influence has generated numerous debates, there is no doubt that climate contrarians have had significant influence on climate science, policy and public communities in ways that are larger than would be expected from their relative abundance in society. As such, a number of these actors have achieved 'celebrity status' in science-policy circles, and, at times, larger public spaces. This presentation focuses on how - particularly through amplified mass media attention to their movements - various outlier interventions have demonstrated themselves to be (often deliberately) detrimental to efforts that seek to enlarge rather than constrict the spectrum of possibility for mobilizing appropriate responses to ongoing climate challenges. Also, this work analyses the growth pathways of these charismatic megafauna through interview data and participant observations completed by the author at the 2011 Heartland Institute's Sixth International Conference on Climate Change. This provides detail on how outlier perspectives characterized as climate contrarians do work in these spaces under the guise of public intellectualism to achieve intended goals and objectives. The research undertaken and related in the presentation here seeks to better understand motivations that prop up these contrarian stances, such as possible ideological or evidentiary disagreement to the orthodox

  8. Policies of Adult Education in Portugal and France: The European Agenda of Validation of Non-Formal and Informal Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cavaco, C.; Lafont, P.; Pariat, M.

    2014-01-01

    This article analyses the influence of the European Union's educational policies on the implementation of devices for the recognition and the validation of informal and non-formal learning within public policies on education and training for adults in European Union Member States. Portugal and France are taken as examples. The European…

  9. The Quality of Teacher Educators in the European Policy Debate: Actions and Measures to Improve the Professionalism of Teacher Educators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Snoek, Marco; Swennen, Anja; van der Klink, Marcel

    2011-01-01

    This study examines how the contemporary European policy debate addresses the further development of the quality of teacher educators. A classification framework based on the literature on professionalism was used to compare European and Member State policy actions and measures on the quality of teacher educators through an analysis of seven…

  10. Adaptation potential of European agriculture in response to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, Frances C.; Lobell, David B.

    2014-07-01

    Projecting the impacts of climate change on agriculture requires knowing or assuming how farmers will adapt. However, empirical estimates of the effectiveness of this private adaptation are scarce and the sensitivity of impact assessments to adaptation assumptions is not well understood. Here we assess the potential effectiveness of private farmer adaptation in Europe by jointly estimating both short-run and long-run response functions using time-series and cross-sectional variation in subnational yield and profit data. The difference between the impacts of climate change projected using the short-run (limited adaptation) and long-run (substantial adaptation) response curves can be interpreted as the private adaptation potential. We find high adaptation potential for maize to future warming but large negative effects and only limited adaptation potential for wheat and barley. Overall, agricultural profits could increase slightly under climate change if farmers adapt but could decrease in many areas if there is no adaptation. Decomposing the variance in 2040 projected yields and farm profits using an ensemble of 13 climate model runs, we find that the rate at which farmers will adapt to rising temperatures is an important source of uncertainty.

  11. 21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Stoffel, Markus; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Beniston, Martin

    2014-05-01

    The Alps are particularly sensitive to global warming and warmed twice as much as the global average in the recent past. In addition, the Alps and its surroundings are a densly populated areas where society is affected by climate change in many ways, which calls for reliable estimates of future climate change. However, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in future climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. It will be demonstrated that considerable and accelerating changes are not only to be expected with regard to temperature, but also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be effected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will most probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity. More intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential are particularly expected in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500 - 2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic variables and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. Acknowledgements: This study has been initiated and is partly funded by

  12. Comprehensive mapping of national school food policies across the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland

    PubMed Central

    Storcksdieck genannt Bonsmann, S

    2014-01-01

    Childhood obesity is a major public health challenge in Europe. Schools are seen as an important setting to promote healthy diet and lifestyle in a protected environment and school food-related practices are essential in this regard. To understand what policy frameworks European countries have created to govern these practices, a systematic assessment of national school food policies across the European Union plus Norway and Switzerland (n = 30 countries) was carried out. The survey revealed that all 30 countries currently have a school food policy in place; a total of 34 relevant policies were identified, 18 of which were mandatory and the remaining 16 voluntary. Major policy objectives specified were those to improve child nutrition (97% of policies), to help children learn and adopt healthy diet and lifestyle habits (94%) and to reduce or prevent childhood obesity (88%). Most commonly (>90%), the policies offered food-based standards for menu composition, and portion sizes were guided by age-appropriate energy requirements. Lunch and snacks were the most widely addressed mealtimes for almost 90% of all policies examined. Other important areas covered included food marketing to children; the availability of vending services; training requirements for catering staff; and whether nutrition education is a mandatory part of the national curriculum. Evaluation was mentioned in 59% of the school food policies reviewed. Future analyses should focus on evaluating the implementation of these policies and more importantly, their effectiveness in meeting the objectives defined therein. Comparable and up-to-date information along with data on education, attainment and public health indicators will enable a comprehensive impact assessment of school food policies and help facilitate optimal school food provision for all. PMID:25663818

  13. Effect of the economic recession on pharmaceutical policy and medicine sales in eight European countries

    PubMed Central

    Mantel-Teeuwisse, Aukje K; Vogler, Sabine; Valkova, Silvia; de Joncheere, Kees; Leufkens, Hubert GM; Wagner, Anita K; Ross-Degnan, Dennis; Laing, Richard

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Objective To identify pharmaceutical policy changes during the economic recession in eight European countries and to determine whether policy measures resulted in lower sales of, and less expenditure on, pharmaceuticals. Methods Information on pharmaceutical policy changes between 2008 and 2011 in eight European countries was obtained from publications and pharmaceutical policy databases. Data on the volume and value of the quarterly sales of products between 2006 and 2011 in the 10 highest-selling therapeutic classes in each country were obtained from a pharmaceutical market research database. We compared these indicators in economically stable countries; Austria, Estonia and Finland, to those in economically less stable countries, Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Slovakia and Spain. Findings Economically stable countries implemented two to seven policy changes each, whereas less stable countries implemented 10 to 22 each. Of the 88 policy changes identified, 33 occurred in 2010 and 40 in 2011. They involved changing out-of-pocket payments for patients in 16 cases, price mark-up schemes in 13 and price cuts in 11. Sales volumes increased moderately in all countries except Greece and Portugal, which experienced slight declines after 2009. Sales values decreased in both groups of countries, but fell more in less stable countries. Conclusion Less economically stable countries implemented more pharmaceutical policy changes during the recession than economically stable countries. Unexpectedly, pharmaceutical sales volumes increased in almost all countries, whereas sales values declined, especially in less stable countries. PMID:25378754

  14. Projections of European summer tourism demand at a +2 degrees warmer climate.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Tsanis, Ioannis; Jacob, Daniela

    2015-04-01

    Tourism is a billion euros industry for Europe and especially for the southern countries for which summer tourism is an important contribution to their GDP. It is highly dependent on the climate and any future changes will alter the favorability of European destinations. The impact of a potential global temperature increase of 1.5 and 2 degrees on European tourism was investigated in the frame of IMPACT2C FP7 project. Climate information from four ENSEMBLES and five Euro-CORDEX RCMs were used to estimate the Tourism Climatic Index (TCI) under the A1B, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The monthly averages of the historical TCI estimates were correlated to the recorded monthly averages of overnight stays for all considered NUTS3 regions in Europe. The correlation proved to be significantly high for the majority of these regions with higher values for the European South, while the lowest correlation was attained for Sweden Denmark and Austria. The correlation estimates was then used to provide information about the change in tourism activity due to changes in the future climate favorability through the TCI. The results show that for the May to October "summer tourism" season, and under +1.5 and +2 degrees climate the potential overnight stays are projected to increase in average in almost the entire European domain, except Cyprus which exhibits a consistent decrease, robust across all scenarios. In contrast, for the peak of the summer season between June and August, it is projected that the European south will potentially exhibit decrease in the overnight stays to as high as 20% and for some cases to even higher than 30% (Greece). Key strength of the results are the correlation of measured tourism indicators to a conceptual index, which gives the ability to quantify the change in the tourism indicator, rather than investigating the coarser concept of climate risk.

  15. European Union policy on pesticides: implications for agriculture in Ireland.

    PubMed

    Jess, Stephen; Kildea, Steven; Moody, Aidan; Rennick, Gordon; Murchie, Archie K; Cooke, Louise R

    2014-11-01

    European Community (EC) legislation has limited the availability of pesticide active substances used in effective plant protection products. The Pesticide Authorisation Directive 91/414/EEC introduced the principle of risk assessment for approval of pesticide active substances. This principle was modified by the introduction of Regulation (EC) 1107/2009, which applies hazard, the intrinsic toxicity of the active substance, rather than risk, the potential for hazard to occur, as the approval criterion. Potential impacts of EC pesticide legislation on agriculture in Ireland are summarised. While these will significantly impact on pesticide availability in the medium to long term, regulations associated with water quality (Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EC and Drinking Water Directive 1998/83/EC) have the potential to restrict pesticide use more immediately, as concerns regarding public health and economic costs associated with removing pesticides from water increase. This rationale will further reduce the availability of effective pesticide active substances, directly affecting crop protection and increasing pesticide resistance within pest and disease populations. In addition, water quality requirements may also impact on important active substances used in plant protection in Ireland. The future challenge for agriculture in Ireland is to sustain production and profitability using reduced pesticide inputs within a framework of integrated pest management. PMID:24753219

  16. Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Margalida, Antoni; Colomer, M.A. Àngels

    2012-10-01

    Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shortage on the population dynamics of vultures, and is necessary to assess the potential impacts of policy decisions on future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services. A novel computational model (P-systems) was used to model these effects, forecasting a rapid decline in the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus). By contrast, vulture species with greater plasticity in their dietary range appeared less sensitive to declining food availability. This study extends our understanding of vulture ecosystem services, which have social and economic implications.

  17. Modelling the effects of sanitary policies on European vulture conservation

    PubMed Central

    Margalida, Antoni; Colomer, Ma Àngels

    2012-01-01

    Biodiversity losses are increasing as a consequence of negative anthropogenic effects on ecosystem dynamics. However, the magnitude and complexity of these effects may still be greatly underestimated. Most Old World vultures have experienced rapid population declines in recent years. In Europe, their immediate conservation depends on changes in health regulations affecting the availability of food provided by domestic carcasses. Information is lacking on the effects of a hypothetical food shortage on the population dynamics of vultures, and is necessary to assess the potential impacts of policy decisions on future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services. A novel computational model (P-systems) was used to model these effects, forecasting a rapid decline in the Eurasian griffon vulture (Gyps fulvus). By contrast, vulture species with greater plasticity in their dietary range appeared less sensitive to declining food availability. This study extends our understanding of vulture ecosystem services, which have social and economic implications. PMID:23082243

  18. The future of immunization policies in Italy and in the European Union: The Declaration of Erice

    PubMed Central

    Odone, Anna; Fara, Gaetano M; Giammaco, Giuseppe; Blangiardi, Francesco; Signorelli, Carlo

    2015-01-01

    On December 2014 the Employment, Social Policy, Health and Consumer Affairs Council (EPSCO) of the European Union adopted the Council Conclusions on “Vaccinations as an effective tool in public health,” a crucial step to strengthen EU action supporting Member States (MS) to implement effective immunization policies and programs. As a contribution to the ongoing pan-European discussion and to the Italian commitment to stay at the forefront of promoting vaccination polices, the Erice Declaration was drafted by Italy's best experts in the field of immunization to transpose to the national level the goals set by the EPSCO Conclusions. The aim of the current letter is to present to the broader international audience the Italian perspective as a case study to assess different immunization policy models, challenges and priorities. PMID:25806425

  19. Climate change impacts on urban wildfire and flooding policy in Idaho: a comparative policy network perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindquist, E.; Pierce, J. L.

    2013-12-01

    Numerous frameworks and models exist for understanding the dynamics of the public policy process. A policy network approach considers how and why stakeholders and interests pay attention to and engage in policy problems, such as flood control or developing resilient and fire resistant landscapes. Variables considered in this approach include what the relationships are between these stakeholders, how they influence the process and outcomes, communication patterns within and between policy networks, and how networks change as a result of new information, science, or public interest and involvement with the problem. This approach is useful in understanding the creation of natural hazards policy as new information or situations, such as projected climate change impacts, influence and disrupt the policy process and networks. Two significant natural hazard policy networks exist in the semi-arid Treasure Valley region of Southwest Idaho, which includes the capitol city of Boise and the surrounding metropolitan area. Boise is situated along the Boise River and adjacent to steep foothills; this physiographic setting makes Boise vulnerable to both wildfires at the wildland-urban interface (WUI) and flooding. Both of these natural hazards have devastated the community in the past and floods and fires are projected to occur with more frequency in the future as a result of projected climate change impacts in the region. While both hazards are fairly well defined problems, there are stark differences lending themselves to comparisons across their respective networks. The WUI wildfire network is large and well developed, includes stakeholders from all levels of government, the private sector and property owner organizations, has well defined objectives, and conducts promotional and educational activities as part of its interaction with the public in order to increase awareness and garner support for its policies. The flood control policy network, however, is less defined

  20. What is the public appetite for healthy eating policies? Evidence from a cross-European survey.

    PubMed

    Mazzocchi, Mario; Cagnone, Silvia; Bech-Larsen, Tino; Niedźwiedzka, Barbara; Saba, Anna; Shankar, Bhavani; Verbeke, Wim; Traill, W Bruce

    2015-07-01

    World Health Organization estimates that obesity accounts for 2-8% of health care costs in different parts of Europe, and highlights a key role for national policymaking in curbing the epidemic. A variety of healthy-eating policy instruments are available, ranging from more paternalistic policies to those less intrusive. Our aim is to measure and explain the level of public support for different types of healthy eating policy in Europe, based on data from a probabilistic sample of 3003 respondents in five European countries. We find that the main drivers of policy support are attitudinal factors, especially attribution of obesity to excessive availability of unhealthy foods, while socio-demographic characteristics and political preferences have little explanatory power. A high level of support for healthy eating policy does not translate into acceptance of higher taxes to fund them, however. PMID:25170630

  1. Multi-basket approaches to climate and environmental policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tanaka, Katsumasa

    2014-05-01

    Short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) such as methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) receive increasing attention because emission abatements of most of these substances not only reduce air pollution but also slow down the global warming. Cutting the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), a long-lived gas in contrast, is of primary importance to mitigate the global climate change as well as to stop ocean acidification. To keep abreast of such multiple challenges in a flexible and cost-effective manner, emission caps can be specified in terms of a reference gas (e.g., CO2) and emissions of different components can be converted according to emission metrics. However, under a current one-basket approach (used continuously in the Kyoto Protocol), which allows trading for all the components, any emission metrics may not be scientifically acceptable due to their diverse atmospheric lifetimes among many other reasons. Here we question whether an emerging multi-basket approach, which groups substances based on their atmospheric lifetimes and permits trading for components within each basket, is more robust in guiding us to achieve multiple policy targets and more useful to maintain the balance between SLCP and CO2 abatements with relatively small additional costs. In a wider context a multi-basket approach may simplify the dialogue among stakeholders and underpin a parallel pursuit of multiple climate and environmental challenges that our society faces.

  2. The Future Of European Floodplain Wetlands Under A Changing Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Christof; Flörke, Martina; Geerling, Gertjan; Duel, Harm; Grygoruk, Mateusz; Okruszko, Tomasz

    2010-05-01

    Floodplain wetlands are defined by their recurring inundation caused by flooding of adjacent rivers and often, the health of riverine ecosystems is dependent on the natural pattern of these inundation events (Junk et al. 1989). In the future, climate change may severely alter flood patterns over large regional scales. Consequently, besides other anthropogenic factors, climate change depicts a potential threat to river ecosystems. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of climate change on floodplain inundation for important floodplain wetlands in Europe and to place these results in an ecological context. This work is performed within the SCENES project considering three different climate change projections for the 2050s. The global scale hydrological model WaterGAP is applied to simulate current and future river discharges which are then used to i) estimate bankfull flow conditions, ii) analyse all overbank flows by different inundation parameters, and iii) evaluate the hydrological consequences and their relation to ecology. Bankfull flow marks an important breakpoint as above this level generally flooding occurs which hydraulically connects rivers to adjacent floodplains and riparian wetlands leading to radical change in the biological processes. Bankfull flow is determined by flood frequency analysis whereas we make use of the partial duration series and an increasing threshold censoring procedure. Any flow greater than bankfull flow is considered a critical flow to investigate. Volume, duration and timing of inundation are regarded as crucial for sustaining floodplain habitats and their ecological functions. Finally, we combine the modelling approach with a scenario analysis which has become a common tool for assessing future trends of environmental problems, particularly those that are complex and poorly described. Precipitation and temperature interact differently at different locations leading to unfavourable changes in the river flow regimes with

  3. Lessons for climate policy from The Great Stink of London

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skuce, A.

    2012-12-01

    A rapidly growing population and the introduction of the flush toilet in nineteenth-century London caused a crisis with sewage pollution in the River Thames (Halliday, 1999). There were decades of delays in implementing solutions owing to: inadequate governance institutions; political inertia; difficulties with financing; opposition from vested interests; scientific uncertainties; and technological challenges. Effective counter-measures were started only once the problem arose, quite literally, under the noses of parliamentarians. There are parallels, some of them pointed out earlier by Alley et al (2010), between the sewage crisis in Victorian London and the current problem with climate change. Both involve the unsustainable use of a common resource (a river, the atmosphere) for the unconstrained disposal of human waste products. Alley (2011) estimated that the costs of providing clean water and sanitation are comparable to the expected costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Despite the similarities, the climate change issue is actually much more difficult because of: a) the unequal and uncertain global distribution of cause and effect; b) its long, intergenerational time lines; c) the insufficiency of adequate institutions, conventions or the tools— political, moral or economic—for tackling the climate crisis. This analysis is consistent with the model proposed by Gardiner (2011) in his book A Perfect Moral Storm. The three "storms" he identifies, the global, intergenerational and theoretical storms, combine in a powerful synergy to create a challenge of unprecedented intractability, providing opportunities for what Gardiner calls moral corruption: the obscuring of the buck-passing and procrastination that characterizes climate policy today. In Victorian London, the crucial steps to solve the sewage crises were not taken until the stench from the River Thames during the hot summer of 1858 rendered the House of Commons uninhabitable. A greater stink of a

  4. Using the New Scenarios Framework to Inform Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Finland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carter, T. R.

    2013-12-01

    a firm basis for future climate change impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, offering RCP/SSP-based scenarios that are not only related to the global New Scenarios Framework, but are also recognised by national policy makers and key stakeholders, via the revised national climate change adaptation strategy. References IPCC (2000) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios: A Special Report of Working Group III of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. [Nakićenović, N. et al. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, 600 pp. Kriegler E et al. (2012) The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways. Glob. Envir. Change 22:807-822. Marttila V et al. (2005) Finland's National Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change, MMM publications 1a/2005, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Helsinki, Finland, 280 pp. Moss RH et al. (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747-756. Taylor KE et al. (2012) A summary of the CMIP5 experiment design. BAMS 93:485-498. van Vuuren DP et al. (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim. Change 109:5-31. Vautard R et al. (2013) The simulation of European heat waves from an ensemble of regional climate models within the EURO-CORDEX project. Clim. Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-013-1714-z

  5. Accounting for health in climate change policies: a case study of Fiji

    PubMed Central

    Morrow, Georgina; Bowen, Kathryn

    2014-01-01

    Background Climate change is expected to affect the health of most populations in the coming decades, having the greatest impact on the poorest and most disadvantaged people in the world. The Pacific islands, including Fiji, are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Objective The three major health impacts of climate change in Fiji explored in this study were dengue fever, diarrhoeal disease, and malnutrition, as they each pose a significant threat to human health. The aim of this study was to investigate to what extent the Fiji National Climate Change Policy, and a selection of relevant sectoral policies, account for these human health effects of climate change. Design The study employed a three-pronged policy analysis to evaluate: 1) the content of the Fijian National Climate Change Policy and to what extent health was incorporated within this; 2) the context within which the policy was developed; 3) the relevant processes; and 4) the actors involved. A selection of relevant sectoral policies were also analysed to assess the extent to which these included climate change and health considerations. Results The policy analysis showed that these three health impacts of climate change were only considered to a minor extent, and often indirectly, in both the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and the corresponding National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, as well as the Public Health Act. Furthermore, supporting documents in relevant sectors including water and agriculture made no mention of climate change and health impacts. Conclusions The projected health impacts of climate change should be considered as part of reviewing the Fiji National Climate Change Policy and National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and the Public Health Act. In the interest of public health, this should include strategies for combating dengue fever, malnutrition, and water-borne disease. Related sectoral policies in water and agriculture should also be revised to

  6. Different welfare states--different policies? An analysis of the substance of national health promotion policies in three European countries.

    PubMed

    Fosse, Elisabeth

    2011-01-01

    This study examines healthy public policy development in three European countries representing different welfare regimes: England representing the liberal model; Norway, the social democratic model; and the Netherlands, the corporatist model. National policy documents were used for the analysis. In England and Norway, health promotion has a prominent place and there is a political focus on the broader determinants of health. However, while the Norwegian policies have an explicit focus on the social gradient, the English policies have a much clearer focus on disadvantaged groups and geographic areas. In the Netherlands, the main focus is on disease prevention and risk behaviors. In the Netherlands and England there is a strong focus on the free will of the population in changing unhealthy lifestyles. By analyzing the different policies in the light of Esping-Andersen's typology of welfare state regimes, it is possible to better understand the differences among the countries. While all types of regimes seem willing to develop targeted measures, the social democratic regime seems the most willing to also develop structural measures addressing the wider social determinants of health. PMID:21563624

  7. Water constraints on European power supply under climate change: impacts on electricity prices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Vliet, Michelle T. H.; Vögele, Stefan; Rübbelke, Dirk

    2013-09-01

    Recent warm, dry summers showed the vulnerability of the European power sector to low water availability and high river temperatures. Climate change is likely to impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power production. Here, we show the impacts of climate change and changes in water availability and water temperature on European electricity production and prices. Using simulations of daily river flows and water temperatures under future climate (2031-2060) in power production models, we show declines in both thermoelectric and hydropower generating potential for most parts of Europe, except for the most northern countries. Based on changes in power production potentials, we assess the cost-optimal use of power plants for each European country by taking electricity import and export constraints into account. Higher wholesale prices are projected on a mean annual basis for most European countries (except for Sweden and Norway), with strongest increases for Slovenia (12-15%), Bulgaria (21-23%) and Romania (31-32% for 2031-2060), where limitations in water availability mainly affect power plants with low production costs. Considering the long design life of power plant infrastructures, short-term adaptation strategies are highly recommended to prevent undesired distributional and allocative effects.

  8. The role of SEA in integrating and balancing high policy objectives in European cohesion funding programmes

    SciTech Connect

    Jiricka, Alexandra Proebstl, Ulrike

    2013-01-15

    Funding programmes for European cohesion policy are a crucial tool to support the sustainability goals of the European Union and national policies of its member states. All these funding programmes require a Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) to enhance sustainable development. This article compares five first SEA applications at cohesion policy level to discuss challenges, limitations and benefits of this instrument. In order to support the SEA-process a 'Handbook on SEA for Cohesion Policy 2007-13' (GRDP 2006) was developed. The paper examines the special requirements and challenges at the programme level given the special conditions for stakeholder involvement, integration of SEA in the programme development process and strategies to cope with uncertainties to ensure real compatibility with policy goals. Using action research and in-depth interviews with SEA planners and programme managers enabled us to analyse the suitability of the methodology proposed by the handbook. The results show that some recommendations of the handbook should be changed in order to increase the transparency and to enhance the standard and comparability of the SEA-documents. Overall the SEA proved to be a rather successful tool for the integration of sustainability goals at the EU and national policy levels. Its particular strengths emerged as the process makes uncertainties visible and leads to possible redefinitions while maintaining actual policy goals. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Comparing five case studies of first applications of SEA at cohesion policy level. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Overall the SEA proved to be a rather successful tool for the integration of sustainability goals. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The study makes uncertainties visible and shows how SEA could lead to possible redefinitions.

  9. Is climate an important driver of post-European vegetation change in the Eastern United States?

    PubMed

    Nowacki, Gregory J; Abrams, Marc D

    2015-01-01

    Many ecological phenomena combine to direct vegetation trends over time, with climate and disturbance playing prominent roles. To help decipher their relative importance during Euro-American times, we employed a unique approach whereby tree species/genera were partitioned into temperature, shade tolerance, and pyrogenicity classes and applied to comparative tree-census data. Our megadata analysis of 190 datasets determined the relative impacts of climate vs. altered disturbance regimes for various biomes across the eastern United States. As the Euro-American period (ca. 1500 to today) spans two major climatic periods, from Little Ice Age to the Anthropocene, vegetation changes consistent with warming were expected. In most cases, however, European disturbance overrode regional climate, but in a manner that varied across the Tension Zone Line. To the north, intensive and expansive early European disturbance resulted in the ubiquitous loss of conifers and large increases of Acer, Populus, and Quercus in northern hardwoods, whereas to the south, these disturbances perpetuated the dominance of Quercus in central hardwoods. Acer increases and associated mesophication in Quercus-Pinus systems were delayed until mid 20th century fire suppression. This led to significant warm to cool shifts in temperature class where cool-adapted Acer saccharum increased and temperature neutral changes where warm-adapted Acer rubrum increased. In both cases, these shifts were attributed to fire suppression rather than climate change. Because mesophication is ongoing, eastern US forests formed during the catastrophic disturbance era followed by fire suppression will remain in climate disequilibrium into the foreseeable future. Overall, the results of our study suggest that altered disturbance regimes rather than climate had the greatest influence on vegetation composition and dynamics in the eastern United States over multiple centuries. Land-use change often trumped or negated the impacts

  10. Venezuelan policies and responses on climate change and natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Caponi, Claudio; Rosales, Anibal

    1992-06-01

    Venezuela is an intertropical country which has the fortune not to suffer the severities of natural hazards which are usual in other countries of this region. It is a developing country, whose economy is heavily dependent on oil production and exports. Its greenhouse gas emissions are relatively low, but it is expected that the planned industrialization development will bring an associated increase in emissions. As a nation, Venezuela has a highly developed environmental consciousness. The Ministry of environment, the first in Latin America, was created in 1977, and has been the main contributor to the national policy of Disaster Prevention and Reduction. As in many developing countries actions and responses in this regard have been rather limited in scope, and even though legislation has been developed, many problems arise for its enforcement. Several local warning systems, civil defense procedures, and infrastructural protection measures are operational, however they have not been designed, revised, or planned taking into consideration the potential impacts of climate change. Presently Venezuela is an active participant state in the negotiation for a framework convention on climate change. That is a very difficult negotiation for our country. Here we have to conciliate enviromental principles with national economic interests. The elements of our position in this contex are presented in this statement.

  11. General and Partial Equilibrium Modeling of Sectoral Policies to Address Climate Change in the United States

    SciTech Connect

    Pizer, William; Burtraw, Dallas; Harrington, Winston; Newell, Richard; Sanchirico, James; Toman, Michael

    2003-03-31

    This document provides technical documentation for work using detailed sectoral models to calibrate a general equilibrium analysis of market and non-market sectoral policies to address climate change. Results of this work can be found in the companion paper, "Modeling Costs of Economy-wide versus Sectoral Climate Policies Using Combined Aggregate-Sectoral Model".

  12. [European innovation partnership on active and healthy aging: moving from policy to action].

    PubMed

    García Lizana, Francisca

    2013-01-01

    Demographic change and aging are a common challenge in Europe. The rising number of elderly people will need support at home, and will consume more healthcare services, putting further pressure on the welfare system. Collaborative, integrated and people-centered care provision, whether in hospitals, homes or in the community, is a way forward to sustainable and efficient care systems. Innovative treatments to address chronic diseases and the functional decline of older people will enable them to live longer in better health and with a better quality of life. To fully unleash the potential of aging in the European Union, the European Commission -within its Innovation Union policy- launched the first European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing (EIP AHA). Promoting engagement and partnerships among all stakeholders in the healthcare chain is essential. This article describes the theoretical foundations, the development and expectations of the initiative, and its first actions. PMID:23140981

  13. Assessing climate impacts of planning policies-An estimation for the urban region of Leipzig (Germany)

    SciTech Connect

    Schwarz, Nina Bauer, Annette Haase, Dagmar

    2011-03-15

    Local climate regulation by urban green areas is an important urban ecosystem service, as it reduces the extent of the urban heat island and therefore enhances quality of life. Local and regional planning policies can control land use changes in an urban region, which in turn alter local climate regulation. Thus, this paper describes a method for estimating the impacts of current land uses as well as local and regional planning policies on local climate regulation, using evapotranspiration and land surface emissivity as indicators. This method can be used by practitioners to evaluate their policies. An application of this method is demonstrated for the case study Leipzig (Germany). Results for six selected planning policies in Leipzig indicate their distinct impacts on climate regulation and especially the role of their spatial extent. The proposed method was found to easily produce a qualitative assessment of impacts of planning policies on climate regulation.

  14. Policies to improve the health and well-being of Roma people: the European experience.

    PubMed

    Fésüs, Gabriella; Östlin, Piroska; McKee, Martin; Ádány, Róza

    2012-04-01

    The Roma constitute the largest ethnic minority in the European Region. The many policy initiatives designed over the past two decades to tackle their adverse social conditions in Central and South Eastern Europe, where the Roma population is concentrated, have had limited success. This paper reviews what is being done to improve the health and social situation of Roma communities in the Region and identifies factors that may limit the effectiveness of these policy initiatives. Strong political commitment, measures to overcome prejudices against Roma, inter-sectoral policy coordination, adequate budgets, evidence-based policies, and Roma involvement can be identified as key preconditions for improved health outcomes and well-being. However, developing a sound evidence-based approach to Roma inclusion requires removing obstacles to the collection of reliable data and improving analytical and evaluation capacity. Health policies seeking to reduce health inequalities for Roma people need to be aligned with education, economic, labour market, housing, environmental and territorial development policies and form part of comprehensive policy frameworks allowing for effective integration. PMID:22217864

  15. Estimation of the change in the harmfulness of selected pests in expected climate - European area

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svobodova, E.; Trnka, M.; Zalud, Z.; Semeradova, D.; Dubrovsky, M.; Sefrova, H.

    2010-09-01

    Climate change is likely to be a dominant factor affecting the lifecycle and overall occurrence of pest's species whose development is directly linked with climate conditions. This study is focused on the estimation of the potential occurrence and generation growth of selected pests causing the significant damages on the yield of crops over western part of Europe in changing climate. Modelled species involved the main pest of potato Colorado potato beetle (Leptinotarsa decemlineata, Say 1824), the pest of maize European corn borer (Ostrinia nubilalis, Hubner 1796), the pest which causes the damages in orchards and decreases the yield of apples, Codling moth (Cydia pomonella, Linnaeus 1758) and Cereal leaf beetle (Oulema melanopus, Linnaeus 1758) seriously affecting wheat production. The development of these pests' is driven mainly by temperature of the environment, which is in turn function of air temperature. The climate change is likely to lead to an earlier once and prolongation of the growing season and in the same time accelerate pests' developmental rate and will increase number of generations. Estimates of potential distribution of selected pest species for the present as well as expected climate conditions are based on the dynamical model CLIMEX. This approach exploits the expression of the overall climate suitability for the species longterm survival in terms of ecoclimatic index. The CLIMEX model was at first validated with observed data of pests' occurrences using CRU 10´ climate data set a source of climate data. All pest models listed were then used to study the effects of climate change on pests by estimating changes in population dynamics and/or infestation pressure during the first half of the 21st century. Outputs of the models were applied within the European scale in the 10´ resolution using digital terrain model. Simulations of the impacts of expected climate on the pests distribution were conducted under three global circulation models (Had

  16. Effects of climate change, invasive species, and disease on the distribution of native European crayfishes.

    PubMed

    Capinha, César; Larson, Eric R; Tricarico, Elena; Olden, Julian D; Gherardi, Francesca

    2013-08-01

    Climate change will require species to adapt to new conditions or follow preferred climates to higher latitudes or elevations, but many dispersal-limited freshwater species may be unable to move due to barriers imposed by watershed boundaries. In addition, invasive nonnative species may expand into new regions under future climate conditions and contribute to the decline of native species. We evaluated future distributions for the threatened European crayfish fauna in response to climate change, watershed boundaries, and the spread of invasive crayfishes, which transmit the crayfish plague, a lethal disease for native European crayfishes. We used climate projections from general circulation models and statistical models based on Mahalanobis distance to predict climate-suitable regions for native and invasive crayfishes in the middle and at the end of the 21st century. We identified these suitable regions as accessible or inaccessible on the basis of major watershed boundaries and present occurrences and evaluated potential future overlap with 3 invasive North American crayfishes. Climate-suitable areas decreased for native crayfishes by 19% to 72%, and the majority of future suitable areas for most of these species were inaccessible relative to native and current distributions. Overlap with invasive crayfish plague-transmitting species was predicted to increase. Some native crayfish species (e.g., noble crayfish [Astacus astacus]) had no future refugia that were unsuitable for the modeled nonnative species. Our results emphasize the importance of preventing additional introductions and spread of invasive crayfishes in Europe to minimize interactions between the multiple stressors of climate change and invasive species, while suggesting candidate regions for the debatable management option of assisted colonization. PMID:23531056

  17. Patterns of 21st Century Climate Change in the European Alps: The CORDEX RCM ensembles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, Sven; Zubler, Elias; Fischer, Andreas; Winter, Kevin J.-P. M.; Gobiet, Andreas; Liniger, Mark A.

    2016-04-01

    The European Alps are a hot spot of climate change and of related impacts on a large variety of natural and socioeconomic systems. Due to their physiographic complexity and their location between distinct climatic zones, climate change and climate impact assessments in this region are challenging and often associated with substantial uncertainties. In particular, previous studies have highlighted the added value of high-resolution climate models to capture fine scale spatio-temporal Alpine climate variability and to assess climate change impacts for high elevation regions. Against this background, we here exploit the currently available CORDEX multi-GHG-multi-model ensembles to assess 21st century climate change over the European Alps. We focus on the spatial change pattern, explicitly including elevation dependencies, and on the uncertainties of the projections. For this purpose we analyze the available EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX ensembles carried out at resolutions of 12 km and 50 km. The results largely confirm the findings of previous studies based on the ENSEMBLES experiments, but also yield a number of new insights. The projected increase of winter precipitation, for instance, appears to be stronger and more robust while the model agreement on summer drying is less pronounced. Elevation dependencies of the near-surface temperature change can be substantial. In springtime, strongest warming occurs at medium elevations where snow cover changes are largest, indicating a contribution of the snow albedo feedback to the vertical profile of near-surface warming confirming previous works. These elevation dependencies, however, can differ between the high and the low resolution RCM ensemble. Obvious model deficiencies in the Alpine area were identified. For instance, several high-resolution RCM versions (12 km runs) tend to constantly accumulate snow cover at some isolated grid cells resulting in a distortion of the temperature change signal.

  18. Adapting to Uncertainty: Comparing Methodological Approaches to Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huda, J.; Kauneckis, D. L.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change adaptation represents a number of unique policy-making challenges. Foremost among these is dealing with the range of future climate impacts to a wide scope of inter-related natural systems, their interaction with social and economic systems, and uncertainty resulting from the variety of downscaled climate model scenarios and climate science projections. These cascades of uncertainty have led to a number of new approaches as well as a reexamination of traditional methods for evaluating risk and uncertainty in policy-making. Policy makers are required to make decisions and formulate policy irrespective of the level of uncertainty involved and while a debate continues regarding the level of scientific certainty required in order to make a decision, incremental change in the climate policy continues at multiple governance levels. This project conducts a comparative analysis of the range of methodological approaches that are evolving to address uncertainty in climate change policy. It defines 'methodologies' to include a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches involving both top-down and bottom-up policy processes that attempt to enable policymakers to synthesize climate information into the policy process. The analysis examines methodological approaches to decision-making in climate policy based on criteria such as sources of policy choice information, sectors to which the methodology has been applied, sources from which climate projections were derived, quantitative and qualitative methods used to deal with uncertainty, and the benefits and limitations of each. A typology is developed to better categorize the variety of approaches and methods, examine the scope of policy activities they are best suited for, and highlight areas for future research and development.

  19. Historical climates explain contrasting dormancy-breaking requirements in North American, Asian, and European woody species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zohner, Constantin M.; Benito, Blas M.; Fridley, Jason D.; Svenning, Jens-Christian; Renner, Susanne S.

    2016-04-01

    Leaf-out times in temperate woody species are determined by winter chilling and spring warming, with day length playing a minor role. The species-specific relative importance of these phenological cues determines the sensitivity of leaf unfolding to climate warming in the globe's temperate forests. Using experimental and monitoring data on leaf-out cues in 495 woody species [about 1/3rd each from Asia, Europe, and North America (NA)], we show that NA species have higher winter chilling and spring warming requirements than do European and Asian species of similar genetic stock. The continent effect remained significant when controlling for the modern climates that species are adapted to, suggesting that contrasting historic climate conditions led to the differentiation of leaf-out strategies among NA, European, and Asian plants. The NA flora experienced more and longer periods of climatic instability and harshness (esp. since the Pliocene) than did southern Europe and East Asia, which may explain why NA species have higher dormancy requirements and leaf-out later than Asian species, which are characterized by a more shallow dormancy. That species from Asia require significantly less chilling than their NA relatives suggests contrasting responses of NA and Asian temperate forests to continued climate warming. Earlier leaf-out in NA trees and shrubs will be constrained by unmet chilling requirements as winters get warmer, whereas Asian woody species generally lack such temperature limitations.

  20. Policies for Migration and Development: A European Perspective. Policy Brief No. 30

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Katseli, Louka T.; Lucas, Robert E. B.; Xenogiani, Theodora

    2006-01-01

    Managing migration has become a priority for policy makers both in developed and developing countries. Large immigration or emigration flows relative to domestic population's impact on almost all aspects of an economy and society: family structures, community life, educational and health systems, labour markets, security systems, governance and…

  1. Future central European summer drying in a high-resolution global climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haarsma, Reindert; Selten, Frank

    2016-04-01

    Using the SST forced high-resolution (~25km) EC-Earth global climate model we have investigated future central European summer drying. Compared to the standard resolution model (~150 km) a large increase in severe summer droughts for the end of the 21st century is observed. The mechanisms responsible for these differences are analysed. They are related to changes in large scale atmospheric circulation patterns and moisture transport, and changes in the local surface moisture budget that involve precipitation, evaporation and run off. The different contributions of these drivers to the occurrence of future droughts and their representation in climate models are analysed and discussed.

  2. Climate Change Communication by a Research Institute: Experiences, Successes, and Challenges from a North European Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lyytimäki, Jari; Nygrén, Nina A.; Ala-Ketola, Ulla; Pellinen, Sirpa; Ruohomäki, Virpi; Inkinen, Aino

    2013-01-01

    Communicating about climate change is challenging not only because of the multidisciplinary and complex nature of the issue itself and multiple policy options related to mitigation and adaptation, but also because of the plenitude of potential communication methods coupled with limited resources for communication. This article explores climate…

  3. Paratethys-Southern Ocean teleconnection in the mid-Burdigalian: European climate on the verge to the Miocene Climate Optimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grunert, P.; Tzanova, A.; Harzhauser, M.; Piller, W. E.

    2013-12-01

    The Early Ottnangian Cooling (EOC), a distinct cold-spell in European climate at ~18 Ma preceding the Miocene Climate Optimum, is frequently reported in Paratethys records; however, the duration, magnitude, and underlying causes are poorly understood. A new paleoclimatic data-set provides unexpected insights into this event. UK'37-based sea surface temperatures > 25°C between 18.6 and 17.7 Myrs substantially exceed existing estimates, and indicate a significantly warmer European climate than previously assumed for this usually poorly recovered time interval. The EOC is expressed as an average drop of 2-3°C in Paratethyan water temperatures between ~18.1 and 17.8 Myrs punctuated by two distinct cold snaps at ~17.86 Ma and ~17.81 Ma. The short duration of the EOC excludes Tethyan Seaway closure as its underlying cause. Instead, the revealed paleoclimatic pattern shows a strong correlation with isotope event Mi1b in deep-sea δ18O records (ODP Site 1090), and we propose a tight paleoclimatic coupling between the Southern Ocean and the Paratethys/Mediterranean realm as an alternative hypothesis. Eccentricity forcing most likely acted as pacemaker of this teleconnection, a mechanism recently emphasized in Early Miocene studies.

  4. Influence of policy and climate change on air quality within the UK West Midlands plume

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walker, H. L.; Baker, J.

    2009-04-01

    The photochemical trajectory model (PTM), coupled with the Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM v3.1), was used to assess the contribution of locally emitted anthropogenic and biogenic emissions to ambient secondary pollutant levels recorded in Birmingham, UK during the summer Pollution in the Urban Midlands Atmosphere (PUMA) campaign (9 June - 12 July 1999). The contribution to ozone (and particulate matter) formation were found to be small, 0.0 to 3.2 ppb (0 to 11 %), with an overall average contribution of about 0.35 ppb or 1.0 % of the total ozone during the period. Subsequently, a stationary or slowly advecting boundary layer scenario was used to assess the timescales for which the local emissions within the West Midlands react and impact on secondary pollutant levels within or downwind of the region. Considering averaged biogenic and anthropogenic emissions across the region as representative of the West Midlands plume, the formation of ozone was found to be VOC-limited, and increased emissions of BVOCs were found to overall increase the reactivity of the plume. Future emissions scenarios were then modelled for 2010, 2015 and 2020 taking into account implementation of European legislation and possible climate change. This work reports on the predicted effects of these policy implementations and possible climate changes have on air quality within and downwind of the West Midlands connurbation.

  5. FACOTRS TO DETERMINE RISK PERCEPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE, AND ATTITUDE TOWARD ADAPTATION POLICY OF THE PUBLIC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baba, Kenshi; Sugimoto, Takuya; Kubota, Hiromi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Tanaka, Mitsuru

    This study clarifies the factors to determine risk perception of climate change and attitudes toward adaptation policy by analyzing the data collecting from Internet survey to the general public. The results indicate the followings: 1) more than 70% people perceive some sort of risk of climate change, and most people are awaken to wind and flood damage. 2) most people recognize that mitigation policy is much more important than adaptation policy, whereas most people assume to accept adaptation policy as self-reponsibility, 3) the significant factors to determinane risk perception of climate chage and attitude towerd adaptation policy are cognition of benefits on the policy and procedural justice in the policy process in addion to demographics such as gender, experience of disaster, intension of inhabitant.

  6. Support for Climate Change Policy: Social Psychological and Social Structural Influences

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dietz, Thomas; Dan, Amy; Shwom, Rachael

    2007-01-01

    We investigated preferences for climate change mitigation policies and factors contributing to higher levels of policy support. The sample was comprised of 316 Michigan and Virginia residents, all of whom completed mail surveys. Of the eight policies proposed to reduce the burning of fossil fuels, respondents overwhelmingly indicated they would…

  7. Assumptions in the European Union biofuels policy: frictions with experiences in Germany, Brazil and Mozambique.

    PubMed

    Franco, Jennifer; Levidow, Les; Fig, David; Goldfarb, Lucia; Hönicke, Mireille; Mendonça, Maria Luisa

    2010-01-01

    The biofuel project is an agro-industrial development and politically contested policy process where governments increasingly become global actors. European Union (EU) biofuels policy rests upon arguments about societal benefits of three main kinds - namely, environmental protection (especially greenhouse gas savings), energy security and rural development, especially in the global South. Each argument involves optimistic assumptions about what the putative benefits mean and how they can be fulfilled. After examining those assumptions, we compare them with experiences in three countries - Germany, Brazil and Mozambique - which have various links to each other and to the EU through biofuels. In those case studies, there are fundamental contradictions between EU policy assumptions and practices in the real world, involving frictional encounters among biofuel promoters as well as with people adversely affected. Such contradictions may intensify with the future rise of biofuels and so warrant systematic attention. PMID:21125723

  8. Managing diversity and European policy: Towards a typology for sport pedagogy.

    PubMed

    Dinold, Maria; Diketmüller, Rosa; Grix, Jonathan; Phillpots, Lesley

    2013-01-01

    This article adds to the growing body of knowledge in sport pedagogy and focuses specifically upon the intersection of gender and disability. Its purpose is twofold, to create a typology for examining good practice in sport pedagogy that is reflective and inclusive and raises awareness of the diverse needs of all participants in physical activity 'regardless' of gender and ability for all children. We acknowledge that access to physical activity, education and sport are complex and multifaceted, however, the main purpose of this paper is to raise awareness of 'diversity' by focusing specifically upon the role of gender and ability. Through an examination of gender and disability policies in official European Union (EU) policy documents and commercial examples of policy-in-practice we propose a typology for diversity and diversity management. A close look at EU level is instructive because national policies of the member countries vary a lot with respect to diversity issues but should be in accordance in the main areas. Such a reading enables the building of a typology of recommendations for how such policy can be rendered in sport pedagogy practice. We suggest six significant, but related principles that include (1) mainstreaming; (2) teaching and coaching sensitive to difference; (3) empowerment; (4) inclusion; (5) adaptation; and (6) inner differentiation. This holistic typology seeks to 'mainstream' issues of gender and disability policy by providing a set of principles that can be applied to a range of teaching and coaching settings. PMID:24251747

  9. The effect of climate policy on the impacts of climate change on river flows in the UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arnell, Nigel W.; Charlton, Matthew B.; Lowe, Jason A.

    2014-03-01

    This paper compares the effects of two indicative climate mitigation policies on river flows in six catchments in the UK with two scenarios representing un-mitigated emissions. It considers the consequences of uncertainty in both the pattern of catchment climate change as represented by different climate models and hydrological model parameterisation on the effects of mitigation policy. Mitigation policy has little effect on estimated flow magnitudes in 2030. By 2050 a mitigation policy which achieves a 2 °C temperature rise target reduces impacts on low flows by 20-25% compared to a business-as-usual emissions scenario which increases temperatures by 4 °C by the end of the 21st century, but this is small compared to the range in impacts between different climate model scenarios. However, the analysis also demonstrates that an early peak in emissions would reduce impacts by 40-60% by 2080 (compared with the 4 °C pathway), easing the adaptation challenge over the long term, and can delay by several decades the impacts that would be experienced from around 2050 in the absence of policy. The estimated proportion of impacts avoided varies between climate model patterns and, to a lesser extent, hydrological model parameterisations, due to variations in the projected shape of the relationship between climate forcing and hydrological response.

  10. Linking science more closely to policy-making: Global climate change and the national reorganization of science and technology policy

    SciTech Connect

    Glasser, R.D.

    1994-04-01

    This paper examines the national trends behind recent efforts to link science and technology more closely to policy-making. It describes the politics surrounding the establishment of the National Science and Technology Council and its committee on Environment and Natural Resources (of which the global change program is a part). It discusses the evolution of the ``assessments`` function within the climate change program in general, and within the Department of Energy, in particular, and how the Clinton Administration`s approach to climate change ``assessments`` function within the climate change program in general, and within the Department of Energy, in particular, and how the Clinton Administration`s approach to climate change ``assessments`` differs from that of its predecessor. The paper concludes with a critique both of the national reorganization of science and technology policy and of the assessments component of the climate change program.

  11. Impacts of Climate Policy on Regional Air Quality, Health, and Air Quality Regulatory Procedures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thompson, T. M.; Selin, N. E.

    2011-12-01

    Both the changing climate, and the policy implemented to address climate change can impact regional air quality. We evaluate the impacts of potential selected climate policies on modeled regional air quality with respect to national pollution standards, human health and the sensitivity of health uncertainty ranges. To assess changes in air quality due to climate policy, we couple output from a regional computable general equilibrium economic model (the US Regional Energy Policy [USREP] model), with a regional air quality model (the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with Extensions [CAMx]). USREP uses economic variables to determine how potential future U.S. climate policy would change emissions of regional pollutants (CO, VOC, NOx, SO2, NH3, black carbon, and organic carbon) from ten emissions-heavy sectors of the economy (electricity, coal, gas, crude oil, refined oil, energy intensive industry, other industry, service, agriculture, and transportation [light duty and heavy duty]). Changes in emissions are then modeled using CAMx to determine the impact on air quality in several cities in the Northeast US. We first calculate the impact of climate policy by using regulatory procedures used to show attainment with National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for ozone and particulate matter. Building on previous work, we compare those results with the calculated results and uncertainties associated with human health impacts due to climate policy. This work addresses a potential disconnect between NAAQS regulatory procedures and the cost/benefit analysis required for and by the Clean Air Act.

  12. The effects of country-level population policy for enhancing adaptation to climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunasekara, N. K.; Kazama, S.; Yamazaki, D.; Oki, T.

    2013-11-01

    The effectiveness of population policy in reducing the combined impacts of population change and climate change on water resources is explored. One no-policy scenario and two scenarios with population policy assumptions are employed in combination with water availability under the SRES scenarios A1b, B1 and A2 for the impact analysis. The population data used are from the World Bank. The river discharges per grid of horizontal resolution 0.5° are obtained from the Total Runoff Integrating Pathways (TRIP) of the University of Tokyo, Japan. Unlike the population scenarios utilized in the SRES emission scenarios and the newest representative concentration pathways, the scenarios employed in this research are based, even after 2050, on country-level rather than regional-level growth assumptions. Our analysis implies that the heterogeneous pattern of population changes across the world is the dominant driver of water stress, irrespective of future greenhouse gas emissions, with highest impacts occurring in the already water-stressed low latitudes. In 2100, Africa, Middle East and parts of Asia are under extreme water stress under all scenarios. The sensitivity analysis reveals that a small reduction in populations over the region could relieve a large number of people from high water stress, while a further increase in population from the assumed levels (SC1) might not increase the number of people under high water stress considerably. Most of the population increase towards 2100 occurs in the already water-stressed lower latitudes. Therefore, population reduction policies are recommended for this region as a method of adaptation to the future water stress conditions. Population reduction policies will facilitate more control over their future development pathways, even if these countries were not able to contribute significantly to greenhouse gas (GHG) emission cuts due to economic constraints. However, for the European region, the population living in water

  13. Multiple carbon accounting to support just and effective climate policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steininger, Karl W.; Lininger, Christian; Meyer, Lukas H.; Muñoz, Pablo; Schinko, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Negotiating reductions in greenhouse gas emission involves the allocation of emissions and of emission reductions to specific agents, and notably, within the current UN framework, to associated countries. As production takes place in supply chains, increasingly extending over several countries, there are various options available in which emissions originating from one and the same activity may be attributed to different agents along the supply chain and thus to different countries. In this way, several distinct types of national carbon accounts can be constructed. We argue that these accounts will typically differ in the information they provide to individual countries on the effects their actions have on global emissions; and they may also, to varying degrees, prove useful in supporting the pursuit of an effective and just climate policy. None of the accounting systems, however, prove 'best' in achieving these aims under real-world circumstances; we thus suggest compiling reliable data to aid in the consistent calculation of multiple carbon accounts on a global level.

  14. Water use impacts of future transport fuels: role of California's climate policy & National biofuel policies (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teter, J.; Yeh, S.; Mishra, G. S.; Tiedeman, K.; Yang, C.

    2013-12-01

    In the coming decades, growing demand for energy and water and the need to address climate change will create huge challenges for energy policy and natural resource management. Synergistic strategies must be developed to conserve and use both resources more efficiently. California (CA) is a prime example of a region where policymakers have began to incorporate water planning in energy infrastructure development. But more must be done as CA transforms its energy system to meet its climate target. We analyze lifecycle water use of current and future transport fuel consumption to evaluate impacts & formulate mitigation strategies for the state at the watershed scale. Four 'bounding cases' for CA's future transportation demand to year 2030 are projected for analysis: two scenarios that only meet the 2020 climate target (business-as-usual, BAU) with high / low water use intensity, and two that meet long-term climate target with high / low water use intensity (Fig 1). Our study focuses on the following energy supply chains: (a) liquid fuels from conventional/unconventional oil & gas, (b) thermoelectric and renewable generation technologies, and (c) biofuels (Fig 2-3). We develop plausible siting scenarios that bound the range of possible water sources, impacts, and dispositions to provide insights into how to best allocate water and limit water impacts of energy development. We further identify constraints & opportunities to improve water use efficiency and highlight salient policy relevant lessons. For biofuels we extend our scope to the entire US as most of the biofuels consumed in California are and will be produced from outside of the state. We analyze policy impacts that capture both direct & indirect land use effects across scenarios, thus addressing the major shortcomings of existing studies, which ignore spatial heterogeneity as well as economic effects of crop displacement and the effects of crop intensification and extensification. We use the agronomic

  15. Preparing the Way for New Policy Regarding Adaptation of US Electricity Infrastructure to Climate Change

    SciTech Connect

    Allen, Melissa R

    2013-10-01

    The following pages represent the status of policy regarding adaptation of the electric grid to climate change and proposed directions for new policy development. While strides are being made to understand the current climate and to predict hazards it may present to human systems, both the science and the policy remain at present in an analytical state. The policy proposed in this document involves first continued computational modeling of outcomes which will produce a portfolio of options to be considered in light of specific region-related risks. It is proposed that the modeling continue not only until reasonable policy at various levels of jurisdiction can be derived from its outcome but also on a continuing basis so that as improvements in the understanding of the state and trajectory of climate science along with advancements in technology arise, they can be incorporated into an appropriate and evolving policy.

  16. Indicators for Tracking European Vulnerabilities to the Risks of Infectious Disease Transmission due to Climate Change

    PubMed Central

    Suk, Jonathan E.; Ebi, Kristie L.; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C.

    2014-01-01

    A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change. PMID:24566049

  17. Indicators for tracking European vulnerabilities to the risks of infectious disease transmission due to climate change.

    PubMed

    Suk, Jonathan E; Ebi, Kristie L; Vose, David; Wint, Willy; Alexander, Neil; Mintiens, Koen; Semenza, Jan C

    2014-02-01

    A wide range of infectious diseases may change their geographic range, seasonality and incidence due to climate change, but there is limited research exploring health vulnerabilities to climate change. In order to address this gap, pan-European vulnerability indices were developed for 2035 and 2055, based upon the definition vulnerability = impact/adaptive capacity. Future impacts were projected based upon changes in temperature and precipitation patterns, whilst adaptive capacity was developed from the results of a previous pan-European study. The results were plotted via ArcGISTM to EU regional (NUTS2) levels for 2035 and 2055 and ranked according to quintiles. The models demonstrate regional variations with respect to projected climate-related infectious disease challenges that they will face, and with respect to projected vulnerabilities after accounting for regional adaptive capacities. Regions with higher adaptive capacities, such as in Scandinavia and central Europe, will likely be better able to offset any climate change impacts and are thus generally less vulnerable than areas with lower adaptive capacities. The indices developed here provide public health planners with information to guide prioritisation of activities aimed at strengthening regional preparedness for the health impacts of climate change. There are, however, many limitations and uncertainties when modeling health vulnerabilities. To further advance the field, the importance of variables such as coping capacity and governance should be better accounted for, and there is the need to systematically collect and analyse the interlinkages between the numerous and ever-expanding environmental, socioeconomic, demographic and epidemiologic datasets so as to promote the public health capacity to detect, forecast, and prepare for the health threats due to climate change. PMID:24566049

  18. A cohesive European policy for hepatitis B vaccination, are we there yet?

    PubMed

    Lernout, T; Hendrickx, G; Vorsters, A; Mosina, L; Emiroglu, N; Van Damme, P

    2014-05-01

    Despite the availability of safe and effective hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccines for more than 30 years, the burden of hepatitis B disease is still substantial. In 1992, the WHO recommended the inclusion of HBV vaccination in all national vaccination programmes. As of 2012, 47 of the 53 European countries (89%) had implemented a universal hepatitis B vaccination programme. The most recent countries to follow the recommendation were Ireland (in 2008) and the Netherlands (in 2011). Still, six countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden and the UK) adopt risk-group-targeted vaccination only, instead of adding a universal vaccination programme. However, changing demography, increasing immigration and the current vaccine costs make the cost–benefit ratios in these remaining low endemicity countries strongly in favour of universal HBV vaccination. Global efforts, including a cohesive European vaccination policy, are essential to control and prevent hepatitis B. PMID:24829936

  19. Asylum applications in the European Union: patterns and trends and the effects of policy measures.

    PubMed

    Bocker, A; Havinga, T

    1998-09-01

    "Statistics on asylum applications have been used in a highly selective way in the debates on refugees and asylum policies in Western Europe, to justify restrictive measures. This paper provides a more systematic analysis of these statistics. It focuses on the pattern of origins and destinations for asylum seekers in the European Union in the period 1985-1994.... When the patterns of origin and destinations are compared for separate years, it becomes clear that the destinations of asylum movements have been constantly changing. Though some of the more remarkable shifts were clearly related to policy measures in the relevant countries, many measures produced only limited effects or failed to have any effect at all." PMID:12295700

  20. A Climate Information Portal for Copernicus: a central portal for European climate services?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Juckes, Martin; Swart, Rob; Thysse, Peter; Som de Cerff, Wim; Groot, Annemarie; Bennett, Victoria; Costa, Luis; Lückenkötter, Johannes; Callaghan, Sarah

    2015-04-01

    The FP7 project "Climate Information Portal for Copernicus" (CLIPC) is developing a demonstration portal for the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). This project is one of a suite of FP7 research activities which are administratively independent of Copernicus, focussed on creating the technical and scientific building blocks needed for the service. It is to be expected that at EGU 2015 there will be many presentations describing portals delivering new and innovative ranges of services. It would be unwise to seek to replace all this creative activity with a single portal -- instead CLIPC is designing a portal to make distributed resources more accessible through flexible discovery systems. CLIPC needs to deliver more than a directory of resources: resources need to be presented in common protocols so that users can access multiple datasets. More information about the project objectives is available at www.clipc.eu. The gulf between the climate science communities and the end user communities is a central challenge being addressed in the project. It is important to understand that there is significant diversity and multiple communication barriers within these two sets of communities as well as between them. The CLIPC services must presentation will provide a review of progress towards this ambitious goal, through a discussion of user requirements activities, an overview of the proposed architecture, work on assessing and adjusting model biasses, and a discussion of the climate impact indicators which will be provided through the portal. When looking at the usability of data for the various users, CLIPC will implement a set of services functioning as a "knowledge base" supplying information to users about the data, including definitions of terminology used, quality of datasets, versioning, and user annotations.

  1. School Climate: Research, Policy, Practice, and Teacher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cohen, Jonathan; McCabe, Libby; Michelli, Nicholas M.; Pickeral, Terry

    2009-01-01

    Background/Context: Educators have written about and studied school climate for 100 years. School climate refers to the quality and character of school life. School climate is based on patterns of people's experiences of school life and reflects norms, goals, values, interpersonal relationships, teaching and learning practices, and organizational…

  2. Validation of an ensemble modelling system for climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tinker, Jonathan; Lowe, Jason; Holt, Jason; Pardaens, Anne; Wiltshire, Andy

    2015-11-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a modelling system used to represent the northwest European shelf seas. Variants of the coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate model, HadCM3, were run under conditions of historically varying concentrations of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active constituents. The atmospheric simulation for the shelf sea region and its surrounds was downscaled to finer spatial scales using a regional climate model (HadRM3); these simulations were then used to drive a river routing scheme (TRIP). Together, these provide the atmospheric, oceanic and riverine boundary conditions to drive the shelf seas model POLCOMS. Additionally, a shelf seas simulation was driven by the ERA-40 reanalysis in place of HadCM3. We compared the modelling systems output against a sea surface temperature satellite analysis product, a quality controlled ocean profile dataset and values of volume transport through particular ocean sections from the literature. In addition to assessing model drift with a pre-industrial control simulation the modelling system was evaluated against observations and the reanalysis driven simulation. We concluded that the modelling system provided an excellent (good) representation of the spatial patterns of temperature (salinity). It provided a good representation of the mean temperature climate, and a sufficient representation of the mean salinity and water column structure climate. The representation of the interannual variability was sufficient, while the overall shelf-wide circulation was qualitatively good. From this wide range of metrics we judged the modelling system fit for the purpose of providing centennial climate projections for the northwest European shelf seas.

  3. Remote Monitoring of Chronic Diseases: A Landscape Assessment of Policies in Four European Countries

    PubMed Central

    Rojahn, Katherine; Laplante, Suzanne; Sloand, James; Main, Claire; Ibrahim, Aftab; Wild, Janet; Sturt, Nicky; Areteou, Thelga; Johnson, K. Ian

    2016-01-01

    Background Remote monitoring (RM) is defined as the surveillance of device-transmitted outpatient data. RM is expected to enable better management of chronic diseases. The objective of this research was to identify public policies concerning RM in four European countries. Methods Searches of the medical literature, the Internet, and Ministry of Health websites for the United Kingdom (UK), Germany, Italy, and Spain were performed in order to identify RM policies for chronic diseases, including end stage renal disease (ESRD), chronic pulmonary obstructive disease (COPD), diabetes, heart failure, and hypertension. Searches were first performed in Q1 2014 and updated in Q4 2015. In addition, in depth interviews were conducted with payers/policymakers in each country. Information was obtained on existing policies, disease areas and RM services covered and level of reimbursement, other incentives such as quality indicators, past/current assessments of RM technologies, diseases perceived to benefit most from RM, and concerns about RM. Results Policies on RM and/or telemedicine were identified in all four countries. Pilot projects (mostly in diabetes, COPD, and/or heart failure) existed or were planned in most countries. Perceived value of RM was moderate to high, with the highest rating given for heart failure. Interviewees expressed concerns about sharing of medical information, and the need for capital investment. Patients recently discharged from hospital, and patients living remotely, or with serious and/or complicated diseases, were believed to be the most likely to benefit from RM. Formal reimbursement is scarce, but more commonly available for patients with heart failure. Conclusions In the four European countries surveyed, RM has attracted considerable interest for its potential to increase the efficiency of healthcare for chronic diseases. Although rare at this moment, incentives to use RM technology are likely to increase in the near future as the body of

  4. Weather Regimes and cyclonic activity in the North Atlantic European region: present and future climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodrigues, Tiago; Rocha, Alfredo; Melo-Gonçalves, Paulo; Santos, João A.; Pinto, Joaquim G.

    2014-05-01

    Damages associated with extratropical storms are amongst the most important natural hazards on Western Europe. Thus, in this work we analyse: (i) the relationships between several cyclone characteristics: intensity, depth, radius, cyclogenesis, cyclolysis, and total number of cyclones (identified by applying the Murray and Simmonds method to 6-hourly 850 hPa geopotential height); (ii) their links to four large-scale weather regimes (WRs) over a North Atlantic-European sector (NAE, 90W-30E, 20N-80N); and (iii) the projected changes for future climates under emission scenarios. Four WRs are identified by a 4-means clustering of the daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields (Blocking, Zonal or NAO+, Atlantic Ridge, and Greenland Anticyclonic). Furthermore, daily 500 hPa geopotential height from four CMIP3 simulations are clustered using the ERA centroids, for both the recent-past climate (1961-1990) and two future climates: 2021-2050 and 2069-2098. The impact of anthropogenic forcing on the cyclonic activity over the NAE sector is thereby quantified for each of the four weather regimes. Acknowledgments: this work is supported by European Union Funds (FEDER/COMPETE - Operational Competitiveness Programme) and by national funds (FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology) under the project CLIPE (PTDC/AAC-CLI/111733/2009).

  5. Impacts of climate change and variability on European agriculture: results of inventory analysis in COST 734 countries.

    PubMed

    Orlandini, Simone; Nejedlik, Pavol; Eitzinger, Josef; Alexandrov, Vesselin; Toulios, Leonidas; Calanca, Pierluigi; Trnka, Miroslav; Olesen, Jørgen E

    2008-12-01

    Climate plays a fundamental role in agriculture because of to its influence on production. All processes are regulated by specific climatic requirements. Furthermore, European agriculture, based on highly developed farming techniques, is mainly oriented to high quality food production that is more susceptible to meteorological hazards. These hazards can modify environment-genotype interactions, which can affect the quality of production. The COST 734 Action (Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on European Agriculture), launched in 2006, is composed of 28 signature countries and is funded by the European Commission. The main objective of the Action is the evaluation of possible impacts arising from climate change and variability on agriculture and the assessment of critical thresholds for various European areas. The Action will concentrate on four different tasks: agroclimatic indices and simulation models, including review and assessment of tools used to relate climate and agricultural processes; evaluation of the current trends of agroclimatic indices and model outputs, including remote sensing; developing and assessing future regional and local scenarios of agroclimatic conditions; and risk assessment and foreseen impacts on agriculture. The work will be carried out by respective Working Groups. This paper presents the results of the analysis of the first phase of inventory activity. Specific questionnaires were disseminated among COST 734 countries to collect information on climate change analysis, studies, and impact at the European level. The results were discussed with respect to their spatial distribution in Europe and to identify possible common long- and short-term strategies for adaptation. PMID:19076423

  6. Social and health policies or interventions to tackle health inequalities in European cities: a scoping review

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Health inequalities can be tackled with appropriate health and social policies, involving all community groups and governments, from local to global. The objective of this study was to carry out a scoping review on social and health policies or interventions to tackle health inequalities in European cities published in scientific journals. Methods Scoping review. The search was done in “PubMed” and the “Sociological Abstracts” database and was limited to articles published between 1995 and 2011. The inclusion criteria were: interventions had to take place in European cities and they had to state the reduction of health inequalities among their objectives. Results A total of 54 papers were included, of which 35.2% used an experimental design, and 74.1% were carried out in the United Kingdom. The whole city was the setting in 27.8% of them and 44.4% were based on promoting healthy behaviours. Adults and children were the most frequent target population and half of the interventions had a universal approach and the other half a selective one. Half of the interventions were evaluated and showed positive results. Conclusions Although health behaviours are not the main determinants of health inequalities, the majority of the selected documents were based on evaluations of interventions focusing on them. PMID:24564851

  7. Promoting mental well-being in the workplace: a European policy perspective.

    PubMed

    McDaid, D; Curran, C; Knapp, M

    2005-10-01

    The nature of the workplace continues to change as Europe adapts to the challenges of competing in a global marketplace. Across the European Union there is a trend of increasing absenteeism and early retirement due to mental health problems, particularly stress and depression. The social and economic costs of lost productivity in Europe are substantial. Moreover, the sustainability of social protection systems may be challenged further by increases in the levels of disability benefits paid to people who have left work on grounds of poor mental health. Yet despite these significant consequences, at both national and pan-European levels, decision-makers have been slow to recognise the importance of promoting mental health within the workplace, although recently there have been some positive developments. This paper outlines some of the socio-economic arguments for the promotion of good mental well-being in the labour force and identifies how they link with different national and European policy agendas around four key issues: economic growth and development, the promotion of a high level of public health, sustainability of social welfare systems and social inclusion. The role and activities to promote mental well-being in the workplace undertaken by both national and international organizations in Europe are outlined along with important gaps and challenges that need to be addressed. PMID:16194816

  8. Companies and Climate Risk: Opportunities to Engage the Business Community in Promoting Climate-conscious Policies (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldman, G. T.; Rogerson, P.

    2013-12-01

    Regardless of their policy orientation, the business community has an interest in how climate change impacts will affect their operations and ultimately change their bottom line. The reality that climate change presents material and financial risks to many companies in diverse sectors of the economy presents an opportunity to engage companies on climate-related issues. Company investors are exposed to such financial risks and can pressure public companies to change behavior through shareholder resolutions, voting, and election of new board members. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) obligates all publicly traded companies to discuss risks that might materially affect their business in their annual Form 10-K filings. In 2010, the guidance for the Form 10-K specifically suggested that companies consider and discuss any significant risks to their business from climate change--both from its physical effects and from impacts of climate regulations. Form 10-Ks for 28 US companies were analyzed for the years 2009 and 2010. Results indicate that some companies comprehensively considered climate-related risks. However, in spite of the SEC guidance, some fail to mention climate change at all. Additionally, many companies discuss only the impacts that regulation would have on their business--not the physical effects of climate change itself. The lack of consideration of climate-related risks in companies' risk assessments demonstrates a need for a more uniform understanding of SEC requirements and additionally, this state of affairs presents an opportunity to push companies to more deeply consider climate change impacts. Several avenues are available for engaging with companies themselves, their shareholders, the SEC, and the public. We will explore what strategies have been effective for engaging such actors and what further opportunities exist for working with the business community to promote more climate-conscious policies and practices.

  9. Mitigation and adaptation within a climate change policy portfolio: A research program

    EPA Science Inventory

    It is now recognized that optimal global climate policy is a portfolio of the two key responses for reducing the risks of climate change: mitigation and adaptation. Significant differences between the two responses have inhibited understanding of how to appropriately view these...

  10. Efficacy Trade-Offs in Individuals' Support for Climate Change Policies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosentrater, Lynn D.; Saelensminde, Ingrid; Ekström, Frida; Böhm, Gisela; Bostrom, Ann; Hanss, Daniel; O'Connor, Robert E.

    2013-01-01

    Using survey data, the authors developed an architecture of climate change beliefs in Norway and their correlation with support for policies aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions. A strong majority of respondents believe that anthropogenic climate change is occurring and identify carbon dioxide emissions as a cause. Regression analysis shows…

  11. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost-benefit assessment of climate policies.

    PubMed

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L; Lenton, Timothy M; Lontzek, Thomas S; Narita, Daiju

    2015-04-14

    Most current cost-benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost-benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost-benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost-benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  12. Environmental tipping points significantly affect the cost−benefit assessment of climate policies

    PubMed Central

    Cai, Yongyang; Judd, Kenneth L.; Lenton, Timothy M.; Lontzek, Thomas S.; Narita, Daiju

    2015-01-01

    Most current cost−benefit analyses of climate change policies suggest an optimal global climate policy that is significantly less stringent than the level required to meet the internationally agreed 2 °C target. This is partly because the sum of estimated economic damage of climate change across various sectors, such as energy use and changes in agricultural production, results in only a small economic loss or even a small economic gain in the gross world product under predicted levels of climate change. However, those cost−benefit analyses rarely take account of environmental tipping points leading to abrupt and irreversible impacts on market and nonmarket goods and services, including those provided by the climate and by ecosystems. Here we show that including environmental tipping point impacts in a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model profoundly alters cost−benefit assessment of global climate policy. The risk of a tipping point, even if it only has nonmarket impacts, could substantially increase the present optimal carbon tax. For example, a risk of only 5% loss in nonmarket goods that occurs with a 5% annual probability at 4 °C increase of the global surface temperature causes an immediate two-thirds increase in optimal carbon tax. If the tipping point also has a 5% impact on market goods, the optimal carbon tax increases by more than a factor of 3. Hence existing cost−benefit assessments of global climate policy may be significantly underestimating the needs for controlling climate change. PMID:25825719

  13. The Effects of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Cycle Interactions on Mitigation Policy Stringency

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Bond-Lamberty, Benjamin; Edmonds, James A.; Hejazi, Mohamad I.; Waldhoff, Stephanie T.; Wise, Marshall A.; Zhou, Yuyu

    2015-07-01

    Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their economic implications are not well understood. Here we examine the effect of climate change on the carbon cycle, the uncertainty in climate outcomes inherent in any given policy target, and the economic implications. We examine three policy scenarios—a no policy “Reference” (REF) scenario, and two policies that limit total radiative forcing—with four climate sensitivities using a coupled integrated assessment model. Like previous work, we find that, within a given scenario, there is a wide range of temperature change and sea level rise depending on the realized climate sensitivity. We expand on this previous work to show that temperature-related feedbacks on the carbon cycle result in more mitigation required as climate sensitivity increases. Thus, achieving a particular radiative forcing target becomes increasingly expensive as climate sensitivity increases.

  14. Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Owen, Jennifer S. R.

    2014-05-01

    Despite the enormous advances made in climate change research, robust projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic stormtrack are not yet possible. In particular with respect to damaging windstorms, this incertitude bears enormous risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies have addressed the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data and found that there is large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such statistical evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms. Compensating effects between the two might conceal errors and suggest higher reliability than there really is. A possible way to separate influences of fast and slow processes in climate projections is through a "seamless" approach of hindcasting historical, severe storms with climate models started from predefined initial conditions and run in a numerical weather prediction mode on the time scale of several days. Such a cost-effective case-study approach, which draws from and expands on the concepts from the Transpose-AMIP initiative, has recently been undertaken in the SEAMSEW project at the University of Leeds funded by the AXA Research Fund. Key results from this work focusing on 20 historical storms and using different lead times and horizontal and vertical resolutions include: (a) Tracks are represented reasonably well by most hindcasts. (b) Sensitivity to vertical resolution is low. (c) There is a systematic underprediction of cyclone depth for a coarse resolution of T63, but surprisingly no systematic bias is found for higher-resolution runs using T127, showing that climate models are in fact able to represent the

  15. Holocene climate dynamics in the central part of the East European plain (Russia)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Novenko, Elena

    2013-04-01

    The Holocene climate and vegetation dynamics in the broad-leaved forest zone of the central part of the East European plain have been reconstructed on the base of pollen, plant macrofossil, testate amoebae and radiocarbon data from the mire Klukva (N 53.834812, E 36.252488), located in the kast depression in the Upper Oka River basin (Tula region, European Russia). The reconstruction of main parameters of past climate (the mean annual temperature precipitation) was carried out by the "Best Modern Analog" approach. Reconstructions of vegetation show that in the early Holocene the territory was occupied mainly by birch and pine-birch forests. Significant changes in the plant cover of the Upper Oka River basin are attributed to the 7.5 cal kyr BP). The climatic conditions were favorable for development of the broad-leaved forests those persisted in this area up to industrial period. In the 17th century, when the population density greatly increased and watersheds were ploughed, natural vegetation communities were gradually destroyed and transformed into agricultural landscapes. According to obtained climatic reconstructions the period 10-8.5 cal kyr BP was relatively cold and wet, when the mean annual temperature was in 3°C lower and precipitation was in 50-100 mm higher then nowadays. The significant climate warming occurred in about 7.0-5.0 cal kyr BP (The Holocene thermal maximum): the mean annual temperature in 2°C exceeded the modern value and precipitation was close to that. The environment conditions were drier due to decrease of effective moisture. In the second part of the Holocene the sequence of second-, and even third-order climatic oscillations expressed against the background of the overall slight trend towards cooling have been determined. The most pronounced cool and wet intervals were reconstructed in 2.5-2.0 cal kyr BP and 1.5-1.3 cal kyr BP. The mean annual temperature decreased in 1.5-2 °C and precipitation rose in 200 mm in compare to modern

  16. European climate variability and human susceptibility over the past 2500 years

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Buentgen, U.

    2010-09-01

    Climate variations including droughts in the western US and African Sahel, landfalls of Atlantic hurricanes, and shifts in the Asian monsoon have affected human societies throughout history mainly by modulating water supply and agricultural productivity, health risk and civil conflict. Yet, discriminations of environmental impacts from political, economical and technological drivers of societal shifts are may be hampered by the indirect effects of climate on society, but certainly by the paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimatic evidence. Here we present a tree-ring network of 7284 precipitation sensitive oak series from lower elevations in France and Germany, and a compilation of 1546 temperature responsive conifers from higher elevations in the Austrian Alps, both covering the past 2500 years. Temporal distribution of historical felling dates of construction timber refers to changes in settlement activity that mirror different stages of economic wealth. Variations in Central European summer precipitation and temperature are contrasted with societal benchmarks. Prolonged periods of generally wet and warm summers, favourable for cultural prosperity, appeared during the Roman epoch between ~200 BC and 200 AD and from ~700-1000 AD, with the latter facilitating the rapid economic, cultural and political growth of medieval Europe. Unprecedented climate variability from ~200-500 AD coincides with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the subsequent Barbarian Migrations. This period was characterized by continental-scale political turmoil, cultural stagnation and socio-economic instability including settlement abandonment, population migration, and societal collapse. Driest and coldest summers of the Late Holocene concurred in the 6th century, during which regional consolidation began. The recent political, cultural and fiscal reluctance to adapt to and mitigate projected climate change reflects the common belief of societal insusceptibility to environmental

  17. Climate change and malaria risk in the European part of Russia in 21st century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shartova, N.; Malkhazova, S.

    2009-04-01

    The purpose of this research is development of prognostic model of malaria risk for European part of Russia (EPR) in the 21st century according to climate scenario IPCC "A2". The following issues have been formulated to reach the goal of the research: define the basic epidemiological parameters describing malaria situation and methods of data processing; creating of maps of malaria risk; analysis of changes in malaria distribution for predictable future climate conditions in comparison with conditions of a modern climate. A lot of reasons (biological, social and economic) impact on malaria distribution. Nevertheless, incubation period of the parasite first of all depends on temperature. This is a primary factor that defines a potential area of infection, ability and specificity to transmit malaria. According to this, the model is based on the relationship between climate (average daily temperature) and the intensity of malaria transmission. The object of research is malaria parasite Plasmodium vivax, which has for Russia (particularly for EPR) the greatest importance because it has the lowest minimal temperature threshold for development. Climate data is presented by daily average temperatures of air for three analyzed periods. 1961 -1989 describes a modern climate and corresponds to the minimum 30-year period that is necessary for an assessment of climate and changes connected with biotic components. Prognostic malaria model is based on predicted daily average temperatures for 2046-2065 (the middle of century) and 2089-2100 (the end of century). All data sets for EPR are presented in the grid 2x2. The conclusion on possible changes in malaria distribution and transmission in the middle and the end of the 21st century: There is going to be the increase of duration of effective temperatures period (period when parasite development is possible), period of effective susceptibility to infection of mosquitoes (period when malaria transmission cycle is possible); shift

  18. International policy implications of abrupt climate change scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Molitor, M.R.

    1997-12-31

    New theoretical and empirical evidence supports the view that in the recent past [Holocene] abrupt climate changes occurred over very short [decadal] time periods. One leading possibility of future changes involves the North Atlantic Ocean conveyor that transfers warm surface waters from the equator to northern latitudes and helps maintain Europe`s climate. The predicted abrupt climate change scenario theorizes that the conveyor may be modified as a result of disruption of the thermohaline circulation driving North, Atlantic Deep Water. This would lead, the theory contends, to a rapid cooling of Europe`s climate. In light of the EPCC`s 1995 Second Assessment Report conclusion that there is a {open_quotes}discernible{close_quotes} human influence on the global climate system, there are many emerging questions concerning possible abrupt climate change scenarios.

  19. European Climate and Pinot Noir Grape-Harvest Dates in Burgundy, since the 17th Century

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tourre, Y. M.

    2011-12-01

    Time-series of growing season air temperature anomalies in the Parisian region and of 'Pinot Noir' grape-harvest dates (GHD) in Burgundy (1676-2004) are analyzed in the frequency-domain. Variability of both time-series display three significant frequency-bands (peaks significant at the 5% level) i.e., a low-frequency band (multi-decadal) with a 25-year peak period; a 3-to-8 year band period (inter-annual) with a 3.1-year peak period; and a 2-to-3 year band period (quasi-biennial) with a 2.4-year peak period. Joint sea surface temperature/sea level pressure (SST/SLP) empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analyses during the 20th century, along with spatio-temporal patterns for the above frequency-bands are presented. It is found that SST anomalies display early significant spatial SST patterns in the North Atlantic Ocean (air temperature lagging by 6 months) similar to those obtained from EOF analyses. It is thus proposed that the robust power spectra for the above frequency-bands could be linked with Atlantic climate variability metrics modulating Western European climate i.e., 1) the global Multi-decadal Oscillation (MDO) with its Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) footprint; 2) the Atlantic Inter-Annual (IA) fluctuations; and 3) the Atlantic Quasi-Biennial (QB) fluctuations, respectively. Moreover these specific Western European climate signals have effects on ecosystem health and can be perceived as contributors to the length of the growing season and the timing of GHD in Burgundy. Thus advance knowledge on the evolution and phasing of the above climate fluctuations become important elements for viticulture and wine industry management. It is recognized that anthropogenic effects could have modified time-series patterns presented here, particularly since the mid 1980s.

  20. 21st century climate change in the European Alps--a review.

    PubMed

    Gobiet, Andreas; Kotlarski, Sven; Beniston, Martin; Heinrich, Georg; Rajczak, Jan; Stoffel, Markus

    2014-09-15

    Reliable estimates of future climate change in the Alps are relevant for large parts of the European society. At the same time, the complex Alpine region poses considerable challenges to climate models, which translate to uncertainties in the climate projections. Against this background, the present study reviews the state-of-knowledge about 21st century climate change in the Alps based on existing literature and additional analyses. In particular, it explicitly considers the reliability and uncertainty of climate projections. Results show that besides Alpine temperatures, also precipitation, global radiation, relative humidity, and closely related impacts like floods, droughts, snow cover, and natural hazards will be affected by global warming. Under the A1B emission scenario, about 0.25 °C warming per decade until the mid of the 21st century and accelerated 0.36 °C warming per decade in the second half of the century is expected. Warming will probably be associated with changes in the seasonality of precipitation, global radiation, and relative humidity, and more intense precipitation extremes and flooding potential in the colder part of the year. The conditions of currently record breaking warm or hot winter or summer seasons, respectively, may become normal at the end of the 21st century, and there is indication for droughts to become more severe in the future. Snow cover is expected to drastically decrease below 1500-2000 m and natural hazards related to glacier and permafrost retreat are expected to become more frequent. Such changes in climatic parameters and related quantities will have considerable impact on ecosystems and society and will challenge their adaptive capabilities. PMID:23953405

  1. Linking science more closely to policy-making: Global climate change and the national reorganization of science and technology policy

    SciTech Connect

    Glasser, R.D.

    1994-12-31

    This paper examines the national trends behind recent efforts to link science and technology more closely to policy-making. It describes the politics surrounding the establishment of the National Science and Technology Council and its Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (of which the global change program is a part). It discusses the evolution of the ``assessments`` function within the climate change program in general, and within the Department of Energy in particular, and how the Clinton Administration`s approach to climate change ``assessments`` differs from that of its predecessor. The paper concludes with a critique both of the national reorganization of science and technology policy and of the assessments component of the climate change program.

  2. Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

    2015-08-01

    Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent

  3. Can we trust climate models to realistically represent severe European windstorms?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trzeciak, Tomasz M.; Knippertz, Peter; Pirret, Jennifer S. R.; Williams, Keith D.

    2016-06-01

    Cyclonic windstorms are one of the most important natural hazards for Europe, but robust climate projections of the position and the strength of the North Atlantic storm track are not yet possible, bearing significant risks to European societies and the (re)insurance industry. Previous studies addressing the problem of climate model uncertainty through statistical comparisons of simulations of the current climate with (re-)analysis data show large disagreement between different climate models, different ensemble members of the same model and observed climatologies of intense cyclones. One weakness of such evaluations lies in the difficulty to separate influences of the climate model's basic state from the influence of fast processes on the development of the most intense storms, which could create compensating effects and therefore suggest higher reliability than there really is. This work aims to shed new light into this problem through a cost-effective "seamless" approach of hindcasting 20 historical severe storms with the two global climate models, ECHAM6 and GA4 configuration of the Met Office Unified Model, run in a numerical weather prediction mode using different lead times, and horizontal and vertical resolutions. These runs are then compared to re-analysis data. The main conclusions from this work are: (a) objectively identified cyclone tracks are represented satisfactorily by most hindcasts; (b) sensitivity to vertical resolution is low; (c) cyclone depth is systematically under-predicted for a coarse resolution of T63 by both climate models; (d) no systematic bias is found for the higher resolution of T127 out to about three days, demonstrating that climate models are in fact able to represent the complex dynamics of explosively deepening cyclones well, if given the correct initial conditions; (e) an analysis using a recently developed diagnostic tool based on the surface pressure tendency equation points to too weak diabatic processes, mainly latent

  4. European drought under climate change and an assessment of the uncertainties in projections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, R. M. S.; Osborn, T.; Conway, D.; Warren, R.; Hankin, R.

    2012-04-01

    Extreme weather/climate events have significant environmental and societal impacts, and anthropogenic climate change has and will continue to alter their characteristics (IPCC, 2011). Drought is one of the most damaging natural hazards through its effects on agricultural, hydrological, ecological and socio-economic systems. Climate change is stimulating demand, from public and private sector decision-makers and also other stakeholders, for better understanding of potential future drought patterns which could facilitate disaster risk management. There remain considerable levels of uncertainty in climate change projections, particularly in relation to extreme events. Our incomplete understanding of the behaviour of the climate system has led to the development of various emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and global climate models (GCMs). Uncertainties arise also from the different types and definitions of drought. This study examines climate change-induced changes in European drought characteristics, and illustrates the robustness of these projections by quantifying the effects of using different emission scenarios, carbon cycle models and GCMs. This is achieved by using the multi-institutional modular "Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS)" (Warren et al., 2008), a flexible integrated assessment system for modelling climate change. Simulations generated by the simple climate model MAGICC6.0 are assessed. These include ten C4MIP carbon cycle models and eighteen CMIP3 GCMs under five IPCC SRES emission scenarios, four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and three mitigation scenarios with CO2-equivalent levels stabilising at 550 ppm, 500 ppm and 450 ppm. Using an ensemble of 2160 future precipitation scenarios, we present an analysis on both short (3-month) and long (12-month) meteorological droughts based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the baseline period (1951-2000) and two future periods of 2001-2050 and 2051

  5. Directed International Technological Change and Climate Policy: New Methods for Identifying Robust Policies Under Conditions of Deep Uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molina-Perez, Edmundo

    It is widely recognized that international environmental technological change is key to reduce the rapidly rising greenhouse gas emissions of emerging nations. In 2010, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of the Parties (COP) agreed to the creation of the Green Climate Fund (GCF). This new multilateral organization has been created with the collective contributions of COP members, and has been tasked with directing over USD 100 billion per year towards investments that can enhance the development and diffusion of clean energy technologies in both advanced and emerging nations (Helm and Pichler, 2015). The landmark agreement arrived at the COP 21 has reaffirmed the key role that the GCF plays in enabling climate mitigation as it is now necessary to align large scale climate financing efforts with the long-term goals agreed at Paris 2015. This study argues that because of the incomplete understanding of the mechanics of international technological change, the multiplicity of policy options and ultimately the presence of climate and technological change deep uncertainty, climate financing institutions such as the GCF, require new analytical methods for designing long-term robust investment plans. Motivated by these challenges, this dissertation shows that the application of new analytical methods, such as Robust Decision Making (RDM) and Exploratory Modeling (Lempert, Popper and Bankes, 2003) to the study of international technological change and climate policy provides useful insights that can be used for designing a robust architecture of international technological cooperation for climate change mitigation. For this study I developed an exploratory dynamic integrated assessment model (EDIAM) which is used as the scenario generator in a large computational experiment. The scope of the experimental design considers an ample set of climate and technological scenarios. These scenarios combine five sources of uncertainty

  6. CEC's Policy on Safe and Positive School Climate

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Council for Exceptional Children (NJ3), 2008

    2008-01-01

    The Council for Exceptional Children (CEC) recognizes the important impact a safe and positive school climate has on the personal development and academic achievement of all students. Research has shown that schools implementing supportive and positive school climate strategies are more successful in creating environments conducive to learning. As…

  7. The alignment of agricultural and nature conservation policies in the European Union.

    PubMed

    Hodge, Ian; Hauck, Jennifer; Bonn, Aletta

    2015-08-01

    Europe is a region of relatively high population density and productive agriculture subject to substantial government intervention under the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Many habitats and species of high conservation interest have been created by the maintenance of agricultural practices over long periods. These practices are often no longer profitable, and nature conservation initiatives require government support to cover the cost for them to be continued. The CAP has been reformed both to reduce production of agricultural commodities at costs in excess of world prices and to establish incentives for landholders to adopt voluntary conservation measures. A separate nature conservation policy has established an extensive series of protected sites (Natura 2000) that has, as yet, failed to halt the loss of biodiversity. Additional broader scale approaches have been advocated for conservation in the wider landscape matrix, including the alignment of agricultural and nature conservation policies, which remains a challenge. Possibilities for alignment include further shifting of funds from general support for farmers toward targeted payments for biodiversity goals at larger scales and adoption of an ecosystem approach. The European response to the competing demands for land resources may offer lessons globally as demands on rural land increase. PMID:25998969

  8. Impacts of climate change on water resources in watersheds of four European lagoons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stefanova, Anastassi; Hesse, Cornelia; Krysanova, Valentina

    2014-05-01

    The hydrologic impacts of projected climate change were assessed for the drainage areas of four European lagoons: the Ria de Aveiro lagoon in Portugal, the Mar Menor lagoon in Spain, the Vistula lagoon in Poland and Kaliningrad region and the Tyligulski lagoon in Ukraine. The eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water Integrated Model) was applied to each of the four case study areas individually, considering basin-specific characteristics and management settings. All four watersheds were calibrated and validated towards river discharge at one or more gauges, reaching satisfactory to very good modelling results, depending on the quality and availability of input data (i.e. observed climate and discharge data). For the assessment of climate change impacts we forced the four model set-ups with scenario data from the ENSEMBLES project. Therefore a set of 15 climate scenarios, all running until the end of the 21st century, was applied to SWIM for one reference and three future periods of 30 years each. We evaluated the long-term changes of total freshwater inflow to the four lagoons and compared the results considering average trends and uncertainties induced by the different climate scenarios. The comparison not only shows differences in the magnitude of potential impacts among the four regions but also differences in the direction of change. In Spain and Portugal an average decrease in discharge of about -5% and -15% can be expected, while at the same time the total inflow to the Vistula and the Tyligulski lagoon is projected to increase by 18% and 20% on average by the end of the century. The agreement of climate projections among scenarios is varies between regions and in consequence the uncertainty in model outputs also differs between the four case studies. In the watershed of the Tyligulski lagoon the projected changes in river discharge vary between -70% and 120%, whereas the results for the Ria de Aveiro lagoon range between -1% and -27% for the last three

  9. Use of a climatic rule and fuzzy sets to model geographic distribution of climatic risk for European canker (Neonectria galligena) of apple.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kwang Soo; Beresford, Robert M

    2012-02-01

    A rule-based model was developed to assess climatic risk of European canker (Neonectria galligena), which is a major disease of apple in some temperate zones. A descriptive rule was derived from published observations on climatic conditions favorable for European canker development. Fuzzy set theory was used to evaluate the descriptive rule quantitatively. The amount and frequency of rainfall and the average number of hours between 11 and 16°C/day were used as input variables whose values were matched with terms in the rule, e.g., 'high' or 'low'. The degree of a term, e.g., the state of being high or low, to a given input value was determined using a membership function that converts an input value to a number between 0 and 1. The rule was evaluated by combining the degree of the terms associated with monthly climate data. Monthly risk index values derived using the rule were combined for pairs of consecutive months over 12 months. The annual risk of European canker development was represented by the maximum risk index value for 2 months combined. The membership function parameters were adjusted iteratively to achieve a specified level of risk at Talca (Chile), Loughgall (Northern Ireland), East Malling (UK), and Sebastopol (USA), where European canker risk was known. The rule-based model was validated with data collected from Canada, Ecuador, Denmark, Germany, Norway, Poland, Sweden, the Netherlands, New Zealand, and the Pacific Northwest (USA), where European canker has been reported to occur. In these validation areas, the model's risk prediction agreed with reports of disease occurrence. The rule-based model also predicted high risk areas more reliably than the climate matching model, CLIMEX, which relies on correlations between the spatial distribution of a species and climatic conditions. The combination of a climatic rule and fuzzy sets could be used for other applications where prediction of the geographic distribution of organisms is required for

  10. Selection of climate policies under the uncertainties in the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drouet, L.; Bosetti, V.; Tavoni, M.

    2015-10-01

    Strategies for dealing with climate change must incorporate and quantify all the relevant uncertainties, and be designed to manage the resulting risks. Here we employ the best available knowledge so far, summarized by the three working groups of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5; refs , , ), to quantify the uncertainty of mitigation costs, climate change dynamics, and economic damage for alternative carbon budgets. We rank climate policies according to different decision-making criteria concerning uncertainty, risk aversion and intertemporal preferences. Our findings show that preferences over uncertainties are as important as the choice of the widely discussed time discount factor. Climate policies consistent with limiting warming to 2 °C above preindustrial levels are compatible with a subset of decision-making criteria and some model parametrizations, but not with the commonly adopted expected utility framework.

  11. Phylogenetic patterns of climatic, habitat and trophic niches in a European avian assemblage

    PubMed Central

    Pearman, Peter B; Lavergne, Sébastien; Roquet, Cristina; Wüest, Rafael; Zimmermann, Niklaus E; Thuiller, Wilfried

    2014-01-01

    Aim The origins of ecological diversity in continental species assemblages have long intrigued biogeographers. We apply phylogenetic comparative analyses to disentangle the evolutionary patterns of ecological niches in an assemblage of European birds. We compare phylogenetic patterns in trophic, habitat and climatic niche components. Location Europe. Methods From polygon range maps and handbook data we inferred the realized climatic, habitat and trophic niches of 405 species of breeding birds in Europe. We fitted Pagel's lambda and kappa statistics, and conducted analyses of disparity through time to compare temporal patterns of ecological diversification on all niche axes together. All observed patterns were compared with expectations based on neutral (Brownian) models of niche divergence. Results In this assemblage, patterns of phylogenetic signal (lambda) suggest that related species resemble each other less in regard to their climatic and habitat niches than they do in their trophic niche. Kappa estimates show that ecological divergence does not gradually increase with divergence time, and that this punctualism is stronger in climatic niches than in habitat and trophic niches. Observed niche disparity markedly exceeds levels expected from a Brownian model of ecological diversification, thus providing no evidence for past phylogenetic niche conservatism in these multivariate niches. Levels of multivariate disparity are greatest for the climatic niche, followed by disparity of the habitat and the trophic niches. Main conclusions Phylogenetic patterns in the three niche components differ within this avian assemblage. Variation in evolutionary rates (degree of gradualism, constancy through the tree) and/or non-random macroecological sampling probably lead here to differences in the phylogenetic structure of niche components. Testing hypotheses on the origin of these patterns requires more complete phylogenetic trees of the birds, and extended ecological data on

  12. Disparity in elevational shifts of European trees in response to recent climate warming.

    PubMed

    Rabasa, Sonia G; Granda, Elena; Benavides, Raquel; Kunstler, Georges; Espelta, Josep M; Ogaya, Romá; Peñuelas, Josep; Scherer-Lorenzen, Michael; Gil, Wojciech; Grodzki, Wojciech; Ambrozy, Slawomir; Bergh, Johan; Hódar, José A; Zamora, Regino; Valladares, Fernando

    2013-08-01

    Predicting climate-driven changes in plant distribution is crucial for biodiversity conservation and management under recent climate change. Climate warming is expected to induce movement of species upslope and towards higher latitudes. However, the mechanisms and physiological processes behind the altitudinal and latitudinal distribution range of a tree species are complex and depend on each tree species features and vary over ontogenetic stages. We investigated the altitudinal distribution differences between juvenile and adult individuals of seven major European tree species along elevational transects covering a wide latitudinal range from southern Spain (37°N) to northern Sweden (67°N). By comparing juvenile and adult distributions (shifts on the optimum position and the range limits) we assessed the response of species to present climate conditions in relation to previous conditions that prevailed when adults were established. Mean temperature increased by 0.86 °C on average at our sites during the last decade compared with previous 30-year period. Only one of the species studied, Abies alba, matched the expected predictions under the observed warming, with a maximum abundance of juveniles at higher altitudes than adults. Three species, Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris, showed an opposite pattern while for other three species, such as Quercus ilex, Acer pseudoplatanus and Q. petraea, we were no able to detect changes in distribution. These findings are in contrast with theoretical predictions and show that tree responses to climate change are complex and are obscured not only by other environmental factors but also by internal processes related to ontogeny and demography. PMID:23572443

  13. Problems of Recreational Industry in European Russia: Changes in Infrastructure, Environment, and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yakovleva, M.; Lyaskovskiy, S. I.

    2011-12-01

    Forest and forest-steppe zones of European Russia have a great potential for recreation, including its active form, tourism. Soft peaceful landscapes and moderate summer climate provide pleasant conditions for family vacations. Numerous lakes and rivers provide places for swimming, boating, and fishing. These pleasant environmental conditions are complemented with abundant recreational choices such as historical places, old cities, towns, and monasteries filled with museums that deliver detailed information about the millennium-long Russian history. There are the vibrant cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg; cities along the Volga River; and the oldest cities in northwestern Russia, Novgorod and Pskov provide numerous options for cultural and entertaining programs for the most demanding travelers. The country has a broad range of private tour operators that cater to national and international travelers. Still there are problems which should be taken into account by travelers who chose to spend their precious vacation time in Russia. Infrastructure problems include a deficit of three-star hotels that are the mainstream of contemporary tourist business. Their number is growing exponentially in the past decade and at present remains insufficient, but the capacity building is progressing favorably. Climatic and environmental changes became a new and unexpected factor affecting the tourist industry in European Russia. Stable and strongly sustainable climate has been interrupted by extreme events that may cause additional discomfort for some people. Tour operators and hotel hosts both need to invest more to confront incremental weather (first of all investments in air conditioning are needed) and/or have substitute travel variants that are of equivalent quality. One of the unresolved issues remains the air quality problem in Moscow due to intense traffic and the possibility of peat fires in the neighboring Shatura region southeast of the city. This increases risks that must

  14. Integrating science, economics and law into policy: The case of carbon sequestration in climate change policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, Kenneth

    Carbon sequestration, the extraction and storage of carbon from the atmosphere by biomass, could potentially provide a cost-effective means to reduce net greenhouse gas emissions. The claims on behalf of carbon sequestration may be inadvertently overstated, however. Several key observations emerge from this study. First, although carbon sequestration studies all report results in terms of dollars per ton, the definition of that term varies significantly, meaning that the results of various analyses can not be meaningfully compared. Second, when carbon sequestration is included in an energy-economy model of climate change policy, it appears that carbon sequestration could play a major, if not dominant role in a national carbon emission abatement program, reducing costs of emissions stabilization by as much as 80 percent, saving tens of billions of dollars per year. However, the results are very dependant upon landowners' perceived risk. Studies may also have overstated the potential for carbon sequestration because they have not considered the implementation process. This study demonstrates that three factors will reduce the cost-effectiveness of carbon sequestration. First, the implementation costs associated with measurement and governance of the government-private sector relation are higher than in the case of carbon source control. Second, legal constraints limit the range of instruments that the government can use to induce private landowners to expand their carbon sinks. The government will likely have to pay private parties to expand their sinks, or undertake direct government production. In either case, additional revenues will be required, introducing social costs associated with excess burden. Third, because of the very long time involved in developing carbon sinks (up to several decades) the government may not be able to make credible commitments against exactions of one type or another that would effectively reduce the value of private sector investments

  15. An analysis of European shale gas policies: Why EU member states are pursuing divergent 'fracking' strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thorne, Ben

    The recent progression in hydraulic fracturing or 'fracking' has enabled energy companies to extract once-considered, inaccessible hydrocarbons. The United States has been at the forefront of this controversial industry, revolutionizing the energy market by becoming the world's largest oil and natural gas producer as a result of its vast shale deposits. Shale oil and gas deposits are not unique to North America, however. EU member states are faced with the dilemma of whether to permit fracking domestically or suspend operations. The United Kingdom and Romania have issued concessions for exploring their reserves, while France and Bulgaria have halted all drilling efforts, citing environmental concerns. This paper evaluates why these four European countries pursued divergent fracking policies, arguing that energy security and Russian-relations are more relevant and powerful explanatory factors than a country's commitment to protecting the environment.

  16. How may the regional climate change redraw the European terrestrial wild mammals' living territory in the 21st century?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nagy, Julia; Bartholy, Judit; Pongracz, Rita; Hufnagel, Levente

    2013-04-01

    Climate is one of the abiotic factors, which controls primarily the range areas of wildlife. Animals tend to occupy geographical regions with climatic conditions, which are optimal to their specific needs. Due to the projected global warming and climate change the living territory of wild animals' may be reshaped in the future, some of the species may even suffer extinction. In this research we aim to estimate how climate change alters the distributions of European terrestrial mammal species and modifies biodiversity in the 21st century. For this purpose, first, hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to species for forming major groups. Climatic information is provided by using the E-OBS gridded database for 1961-1990. Then, carefully selecting typical species from the major groups it is possible to predict changes in area by displaying their climate indicator profile maps. For the range datasets the Atlas of European Mammals are analyzed, which was published in 1999 and is now widely used as a reference work. It contains data for pre-1970 and post-1970 presence of mammal species in Europe. Then, in order to assess future changes, available datasets of regional climate model results from the European project ENSEMBLES for 1951-2100 using the moderate SRES A1B emission scenario are considered with 25 km horizontal resolution. Simultaneous analysis of climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of European terrestrial mammal species to regional climate change. The results suggest that rapid change and significant decline in habitats and fauna redraw the wild animals' living territory and make them migrate northward.

  17. Effects of California's Climate Policy in Facilitating CCUS

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Burton, Elizabeth

    2014-12-31

    California is at the forefront of addressing the challenges involved in redesigning its energy infrastructure to meet 2050 GHG reduction goals, but CCUS commercialization lags in California as it does elsewhere. It is unclear why this is the case given the state’s forefront position in aggressive climate change policy. The intent of this paper is to examine the factors that may explain why CCUS has not advanced as rapidly as other GHG emissions mitigation technologies in California and identify ways by which CCUS commercialization may be advanced in the context of California’s future energy infrastructure. CCUS has application to reducemore » GHG emissions from the power, industrial and transportation sectors in the state. Efficiency, use of renewable energy or nuclear generation to replace fossil fuels, use of lower or no-net-carbon feedstocks (such as biomass), and use of CCUS on fossil fuel generation are the main options, but California has fewer options for making the deep cuts in CO2 emissions within the electricity sector to meet 2050 goals. California is already the most efficient of all 50 states as measured by electricity use per capita, and, while further efficiency measures can reduce per capita consumption, increasing population is still driving electricity demand upwards. A 1976 law prevents building any new nuclear plants until a federal high-level nuclear waste repository is approved. Most all in-state electricity generation already comes from natural gas; although California does plan to eliminate electricity imports from out-of-state coal-fired generation. Thus, the two options with greatest potential to reduce in-state power sector CO2 emissions are replacing fossil with renewable generation or employing CCUS on natural gas power plants. Although some scenarios call on California to transition its electricity sector to 100 percent renewables, it is unclear how practical this approach is given the intermittency of renewable generation

  18. Effects of California's Climate Policy in Facilitating CCUS

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, Elizabeth

    2014-12-31

    California is at the forefront of addressing the challenges involved in redesigning its energy infrastructure to meet 2050 GHG reduction goals, but CCUS commercialization lags in California as it does elsewhere. It is unclear why this is the case given the state’s forefront position in aggressive climate change policy. The intent of this paper is to examine the factors that may explain why CCUS has not advanced as rapidly as other GHG emissions mitigation technologies in California and identify ways by which CCUS commercialization may be advanced in the context of California’s future energy infrastructure. CCUS has application to reduce GHG emissions from the power, industrial and transportation sectors in the state. Efficiency, use of renewable energy or nuclear generation to replace fossil fuels, use of lower or no-net-carbon feedstocks (such as biomass), and use of CCUS on fossil fuel generation are the main options, but California has fewer options for making the deep cuts in CO2 emissions within the electricity sector to meet 2050 goals. California is already the most efficient of all 50 states as measured by electricity use per capita, and, while further efficiency measures can reduce per capita consumption, increasing population is still driving electricity demand upwards. A 1976 law prevents building any new nuclear plants until a federal high-level nuclear waste repository is approved. Most all in-state electricity generation already comes from natural gas; although California does plan to eliminate electricity imports from out-of-state coal-fired generation. Thus, the two options with greatest potential to reduce in-state power sector CO2 emissions are replacing fossil with renewable generation or employing CCUS on natural gas power plants. Although some scenarios call on California to transition its electricity sector to 100 percent renewables, it is unclear how practical this approach is given the intermittency of renewable

  19. Defining climate modeling user needs: which data are actually required to support impact analysis and adaptation policy development?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swart, R. J.; Pagé, C.

    2010-12-01

    Until recently, the policy applications of Earth System Models in general and climate models in particular were focusing mainly on the potential future changes in the global and regional climate and attribution of observed changes to anthropogenic activities. Is climate change real? And if so, why do we have to worry about it? Following the broad acceptance of the reality of the risks by the majority of governments, particularly after the publication of IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report and the increasing number of observations of changes in ecological and socio-economic systems that are consistent with the observed climatic changes, governments, companies and other societal groups have started to evaluate their own vulnerability in more detail and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies. After an early focus on the most vulnerable developing countries, recently, an increasing number of industrialized countries have embarked on the design of adaptation and mitigation plans, or on studies to evaluate the level of climate resilience of their development plans and projects. Which climate data are actually required to effectively support these activities? This paper reports on the efforts of the IS-ENES project, the infrastructure project of the European Network for Earth System Modeling, to address this question. How do we define user needs and can the existing gap between the climate modeling and impact research communities be bridged in support of the ENES long-term strategy? In contrast from the climate modeling community, which has a relatively long history of collaboration facilitated by a relatively uniform subject matter, commonly agreed definitions of key terminology and some level of harmonization of methods, the climate change impacts research community is very diverse and fragmented, using a wide variety of data sources, methods and tools. An additional complicating factor is that researchers working on adaptation usually closely collaborate with non

  20. European air pollution in 2050, a regional air quality and climate perspective under CMIP5 scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colette, A.; Bessagnet, B.; Vautard, R.; Szopa, S.; Rao, S.; Schucht, S.; Klimont, Z.; Holland, M.; Menut, L.; Meleux, F.; Rouïl, L.

    2013-12-01

    Air pollution and climate change are closely related. They share both driving geophysical processes and mitigation strategies. Increased temperature, changes in weather regimes and precipitation patterns will alter the formation of pollution episodes. At the same time curbing greenhouse gases emission will also induce indirect co-benefits for air pollutant emissions. As a consequence, understanding the long-term efficiency of air pollution mitigation strategies requires the integrated implementation of comprehensive geophysical and economical models. Coupling air pollution and climate models for long term projections raise a number of scientific and technical issues. Global scale circulation outputs must be downscaled in order to provide high resolution three dimensional meteorological fields at high temporal frequency to the chemistry transport model. The computational cost of the air quality model is comparable to the cost of the regional climate model. So that the computing demand and storage call for an efficient design of a complex modelling suite. Moreover the cost of the project prohibits the implementation of large ensemble of model, thereby raising concerns on the treatment of uncertainty analyses of the projections. We present an integrated assessment of future air quality that relies on up-to-date emission scenarios and full-frame geophysical models of climate and atmospheric chemistry which are themselves embedded in monetised economical models to propose a cost-benefit assessment. Emissions: For long lived trace species, we use the Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP) produced for the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of IPCC whereas regional air quality modelling is based on the updated emissions scenarios produced in the framework of the Global Energy Assessment (GEA) that offer an explicit representation of air quality policies. Climate and chemistry models: We use the latest sources of recent coordinated model intercomparison projects, each

  1. Response of the European Vegetation to the Global Climatic Changes during the Neogene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Popescu, S.; Jimenez-Moreno, G.; Suc, J.; Rabineau, M.

    2009-12-01

    The beginning of the Neogene coincides with a transient cooler climate event (Mi-1) as response to the intermittent expansion on the EAIS. The Miocene is characterized by warm and humid climate that implied the development of forest environments in Europe. The vegetation was composed mainly by tropical, subtropical and warm-temperate plants, which attempted the maximum of diversity during the Miocene Climate Optimum event (17-15 Ma). Reconstruction of climatic parameters, applied to our pollen records, indicates for the NE Spain, for the Early Miocene a MAT~19°C, a MTW~24.5°C, a MTC~7.5 °C, and MAP = 900 - 1700 mm. Several cooling events (Mi-1 to Mi-7) are responsible for a progressive impoverishment in tropical and subtropical plants, which will be replaced by warm-temperate ones. The most important, Monterey Cooling Event induce the decrease of MAT about 2-4°C implying the disappearance of the Avicennia mangrove from the NW Mediterranean coastline. Warm climate characterized the Serravallian and Tortonian. Paleoclimatic reconstruction for the Late Miocene indicates a MAT=15-24°C, with a strong seasonality correlated with high precipitation values (1100 -1550 mm) in N.Europe and respectively low seasonality and precipitation values (320-680 mm) in SW Europe and N Africa. The West Antarctic glaciations at 6 Ma, probably caused the disappearance of the Avicennia mangrove from S. Mediterranean coastlines. During the Early Pliocene, the climate was relatively warmer with MAT higher of about 1-5°C than today.Increase in humidity characterize the Central and Eastern Europe (MAP higher of about 400 -1000 mm than today), that promoted the development of forest vegetation in this area. The pollen floras from the European Early Pliocene allow a refined geographic specification of the different kinds of reconstructed vegetation. The Late Pliocene is still too much poorly-documented and needs more attention as it represents the key-moment of the progressive transition

  2. Association between Integration Policies and Immigrants’ Mortality: An Explorative Study across Three European Countries

    PubMed Central

    Ikram, Umar Z.; Malmusi, Davide; Juel, Knud; Rey, Grégoire; Kunst, Anton E.

    2015-01-01

    Background To integrate immigrants into their societies, European countries have adopted different types of policies, which may influence health through both material and psychosocial determinants. Recent studies have suggested poorer health outcomes for immigrants living in countries with poorly rated integration policies. Objective To analyse mortality differences of immigrants from the same country of origin living in countries with distinct integration policy contexts. Methods From the mortality dataset collected in the Migrant Ethnic Health Observatory (MEHO) project, we chose the Netherlands (linked data from 1996-2006), France (unlinked; 2005-2007) and Denmark (linked; 1992-2001) as representatives of the inclusive, assimilationist and exclusionist policy models, respectively, based on the Migrant Integration Policy Index. We calculated for each country sex- and age-standardized mortality rates for Turkish-, Moroccan- and local-born populations aged 20-69 years. Poisson regression was used to estimate the mortality rate ratios (MRRs) for cross-country and within-country comparisons. The analyses were further stratified by age group and cause of death. Results Compared with their peers in the Netherlands, Turkish-born immigrants had higher all-cause mortality in Denmark (MRR men 1.92; 95% CI 1.74-2.13 and women 2.11; 1.80-2.47) but lower in France (men 0.64; 0.59-0.69 and women 0.58; 0.51-0.67). A similar pattern emerged for Moroccan-born immigrants. The relative differences between immigrants and the local-born population were also largest in Denmark and lowest in France (e.g., Turkish-born men MRR 1.52; 95% CI 1.38-1.67 and 0.62; 0.58-0.66, respectively). These patterns were consistent across all age groups, and more marked for cardiovascular diseases. Conclusions Although confounders and data comparability issues (e.g., French cross-sectional data) may affect the findings, this study suggests that different macro-level policy contexts may influence

  3. White paper on the future chemical policy in the European Union - implications for animal welfare.

    PubMed

    Sauer, U G

    2001-01-01

    In February 2001, the European Commission adopted a White Paper on a Future Chemicals Policy. Its main goals are better to protect humans and the environment from unknown risks through chemicals. The "promotion of non-animal testing" is one of the key elements of the proposed strategy. For low production volume chemicals, only data from in vitro-tests are to be requested. The data requirements for higher production volume chemicals shall be designed flexibly so that only data relevant for the respective chemical are collected. From the point of view of animal welfare concrete risk management strategies should be defined before test batteries are put together. The test catalogues currently listed in the Classification Directive 67/548/EEC are to be replaced by tiered testing strategies, and concrete waiving strategies are to be designed so that the requested tailor-made testing can actually be realized. Another essential prerequisite for the promotion of non-animal testing is that the funding of alternative method research is formulated as a key action with a concrete budget in the Sixth Research Framework Program of the European Union. PMID:11753540

  4. Strategic effects of future environmental policy commitments: climate change, solar radiation management and correlated air pollutants.

    PubMed

    Qu, Jingwen; Silva, Emilson Caputo Delfino

    2015-03-15

    We study the effects of environmental policy commitments in a futuristic world in which solar radiation management (SRM) can be utilized to reduce climate change damages. Carbon and sulfur dioxide emissions (correlated pollutants) can be reduced through tradable permits. We show that if nations simultaneously commit to carbon permit policies, national SRM levels rise with carbon quotas. Alternatively, if they simultaneously commit to SRM policies, the global temperature falls with each unit increase in the global SRM level. A nation always wishes to be a leader in policymaking, but prefers carbon to SRM policymaking. The globe prefers SRM policy commitments. PMID:25528270

  5. How a policy requiring all highways infrastructure projects to consider climate change was born

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murdock, T. Q.; Sobie, S. R.; Nyland, D.; Wolf, J.

    2015-12-01

    The Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium has provided projected climate change scenarios including for use in several adaptation case studies by the British Columbia Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure. Subsequent to these individual case studies throughout the Province, a sub-committee consisting of engineers, adaptation experts, and climate scientists was formed to provide input on forming a Province-wide requirement for all design projects to consider climate change. The work of this committee has recently culminated in the release of Technical Circular T06-15 (http://www2.gov.bc.ca/assets/gov/driving-and-transportation/transportation-infrastructure/engineering-standards-and-guidelines/technical-circulars/2015/t06-15.pdf). A collaboration with the Association of Professional Engineers and Geoscientists of British Columbia has resulted in the development of Professional Practice Guidelines. These guidelines are meant to assist engineers without special climate adaptation training to make appropriate use of climate information in accordance with the Technical Circular. An overview of the process that led to this concrete policy decision will be presented. Lessons learned include pitfalls to avoid as well as what worked well. In particular, successful aspects of the process include active involvement of climate scientists in regional climate adaptation case studies, an emphasis on cross-discipline (engineer-climate scientist) communication, and consultation with professionals who would be affected by the policy.

  6. What the eye does not see: a critical interpretive synthesis of European Union policies addressing sexual violence in vulnerable migrants.

    PubMed

    Keygnaert, Ines; Guieu, Aurore

    2015-11-01

    In Europe, refugees, asylum seekers and undocumented migrants are more vulnerable to sexual victimisation than European citizens. They face more challenges when seeking care. This literature review examines how legal and policy frameworks at national, European and international levels condition the prevention of and response to sexual violence affecting these vulnerable migrant communities living in the European Union (EU). Applying the Critical Interpretive Synthesis method, we reviewed 187 legal and policy documents and 80 peer-reviewed articles on migrant sexual health for elements on sexual violence and further analysed the 37 legal and 12 peer-reviewed articles among them that specifically focused on sexual violence in vulnerable migrants in the EU-27 States. Legal and policy documents dealing with sexual violence, particularly but not exclusively in vulnerable migrants, apply 'tunnel vision'. They ignore: a) frequently occurring types of sexual violence, b) victimisation rates across genders and c) specific risk factors within the EU such as migrants' legal status, gender orientation and living conditions. The current EU policy-making paradigm relegates sexual violence in vulnerable migrants as an 'outsider' and 'female only' issue while EU migration and asylum policies reinforce its invisibility. Effective response must be guided by participatory rights- and evidence-based policies and a public health approach, acknowledging the occurrence and multiplicity of sexual victimisation of vulnerable migrants of all genders within EU borders. PMID:26718996

  7. Adaptive Governance, Uncertainty, and Risk: Policy Framing and Responses to Climate Change, Drought, and Flood.

    PubMed

    Hurlbert, Margot; Gupta, Joyeeta

    2016-02-01

    As climate change impacts result in more extreme events (such as droughts and floods), the need to understand which policies facilitate effective climate change adaptation becomes crucial. Hence, this article answers the question: How do governments and policymakers frame policy in relation to climate change, droughts, and floods and what governance structures facilitate adaptation? This research interrogates and analyzes through content analysis, supplemented by semi-structured qualitative interviews, the policy response to climate change, drought, and flood in relation to agricultural producers in four case studies in river basins in Chile, Argentina, and Canada. First, an epistemological explanation of risk and uncertainty underscores a brief literature review of adaptive governance, followed by policy framing in relation to risk and uncertainty, and an analytical model is developed. Pertinent findings of the four cases are recounted, followed by a comparative analysis. In conclusion, recommendations are made to improve policies and expand adaptive governance to better account for uncertainty and risk. This article is innovative in that it proposes an expanded model of adaptive governance in relation to "risk" that can help bridge the barrier of uncertainty in science and policy. PMID:26630544

  8. Does the European eddy flux tower network represent the climatic and ecophysiological diversity of Europe?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Canfora, E.; Papale, D.; Luyssaert, S.; Sulkava, M.

    2009-04-01

    In analyzing the increase of greenhouse gas concentration in terrestrial atmosphere, the studies about the role of vegetation in the carbon exchange regulation are relevant. In this respect, a network using the eddy covariance technique to measure CO2 and H2O exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and atmosphere, has been established. When the network was established, 16 towers all located in forest ecosystems were maintained. In the past 15 years, the network grew and the current Carboeurope-IP monitoring network consists of more than 100 flux towers (www.carboaurope.org) located all over Europe aiming to represent the diversified of geographic regions, climatic and vegetation characteristics (Plant Functional Types). Because the growth of the network was driven by funding and administrative issues rather than scientific needs, we evaluated, in retrospective, the representativeness of the current network based on climatic and ecophysiological characteristics of the sites and the European territory. We used a cluster approach based on the distance matrix of Self Organizing Maps (SOM) (Kohonen 2001), where the SOM was trained with 21 variables describing main meteorological and productivity characteristics and their inter-annual and seasonal variability of the European territory. A separate SOM was trained for each PFT and the representativeness of eddy towers sites has been evaluated on the basis of their positions on the SOM clusters map (i.e. the 21-D variable-space). The main underlying assumption was that the number of clusters within each PFT was similar to the current number of towers. The analysis showed that the current network is representing the European domain quite well in respect to the variables considered, although North-Eastern and South-Eastern climatic and ecosphysiological conditions are poorly sampled for several PFT. The same approach was used to propose a new tower arrangement that maximizes the network representativeness. Further, our

  9. Climate Change and Public Health Policy: Translating the Science

    PubMed Central

    Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

    2013-01-01

    Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

  10. Climate change and public health policy: translating the science.

    PubMed

    Braks, Marieta; van Ginkel, Rijk; Wint, William; Sedda, Luigi; Sprong, Hein

    2014-01-01

    Public health authorities are required to prepare for future threats and need predictions of the likely impact of climate change on public health risks. They may get overwhelmed by the volume of heterogeneous information in scientific articles and risk relying purely on the public opinion articles which focus mainly on global warming trends, and leave out many other relevant factors. In the current paper, we discuss various scientific approaches investigating climate change and its possible impact on public health and discuss their different roles and functions in unraveling the complexity of the subject. It is not our objective to review the available literature or to make predictions for certain diseases or countries, but rather to evaluate the applicability of scientific research articles on climate change to evidence-based public health decisions. In the context of mosquito borne diseases, we identify common pitfalls to watch out for when assessing scientific research on the impact of climate change on human health. We aim to provide guidance through the plethora of scientific papers and views on the impact of climate change on human health to those new to the subject, as well as to remind public health experts of its multifactorial and multidisciplinary character. PMID:24452252

  11. Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

    2013-12-01

    Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This

  12. Overview of vaccination policies for the elderly in Western European countries.

    PubMed

    Samson, Sandrine I; Mégard, Yves

    2009-06-01

    Age-related changes in the immune system are associated with increased susceptibility to infections, greater disease severity and poorer outcomes in the elderly compared with young adults. Both influenza and pneumonia are important causes of morbidity and mortality in the elderly, and herpes zoster also represents an important disease burden in this population. Vaccinations against influenza and Streptococcus pneumoniae (pneumococcus) have been shown to reduce the incidence of influenza and invasive pneumococcal disease, respectively, in the elderly. In addition, as is the case with diphtheria/tetanus and herpes zoster vaccines, they can help to reduce the associated burden of disease in vaccinated individuals. Despite the evidence of these benefits, there are considerable variations among the countries of Western Europe in their policies for vaccination in the elderly. Western European countries face the prospect of a population in which the proportion of elderly people is increasing, with a consequent increase in demand on the healthcare system. Acknowledgement of the benefits of vaccination in the elderly, together with comprehensive vaccination policies for this age group, could help to reduce some of these demands. PMID:19571644

  13. Modelling recovery from soil acidification in European forests under climate change.

    PubMed

    Reinds, Gert Jan; Posch, Maximilian; Leemans, Rik

    2009-10-15

    A simple soil acidification model was applied to evaluate the effects of sulphur and nitrogen emission reductions on the recovery of acidified European forest soils. In addition we included the effects of climate change on soil solution chemistry, by modelling temperature effects on soil chemical processes and including temperature and precipitation effects on nitrogen uptake and on leaching. Model results showed a strong effect of the emission reduction scenarios on soil solution chemistry. Using the Current Legislation (CLE) scenario, the forest area in Europe with soil solution Al/Bc >1 mol mol(-1) (a widely used critical limit) decreased from about 4% in 1990 to about 1.7% in 2050. Under Maximum Feasible Reductions (MFR), the exceeded area will be <1% in 2050. In addition, the area where limits for the nitrate concentration in soils are violated is predicted to be smaller under MFR than under CLE. Using the most stringent criterion for nitrate ([NO(3)] <0.3mg l(-1)), the area with nitrate concentrations in excess of the critical limit is about 33% in 2050 under CLE, but only 12% under MFR. Recovery, i.e. attaining non-violation of the criterion, is also much faster under MFR than under CLE. Climate change leads to higher weathering rates and nitrogen uptake in the model, but positive effects on recovery from acidification are limited compared to current climate, and differences between the A1 and B2 climate change scenarios were small. Target loads for 2050 exist for 4% of the area for Al/Bc=1 and for 12% of the area when using a criterion of ANC=0 for the soil solution. In about 30% of the area where meaningful target loads exists, the computed target load is lower than the deposition under MFR, and thus cannot be attained with current emission abatement technologies. PMID:19647858

  14. Climate-induced warming imposes a threat to north European spring ecosystems.

    PubMed

    Jyväsjärvi, Jussi; Marttila, Hannu; Rossi, Pekka M; Ala-Aho, Pertti; Olofsson, Bo; Nisell, Jakob; Backman, Birgitta; Ilmonen, Jari; Virtanen, Risto; Paasivirta, Lauri; Britschgi, Ritva; Kløve, Bjørn; Muotka, Timo

    2015-12-01

    Interest in climate change effects on groundwater has increased dramatically during the last decade. The mechanisms of climate-related groundwater depletion have been thoroughly reviewed, but the influence of global warming on groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) remains poorly known. Here we report long-term water temperature trends in 66 northern European cold-water springs. A vast majority of the springs (82%) exhibited a significant increase in water temperature during 1968-2012. Mean spring water temperatures were closely related to regional air temperature and global radiative forcing of the corresponding year. Based on three alternative climate scenarios representing low (RCP2.6), intermediate (RCP6) and high-emission scenarios (RCP8.5), we estimate that increase in mean spring water temperature in the region is likely to range from 0.67 °C (RCP2.6) to 5.94 °C (RCP8.5) by 2086. According to the worst-case scenario, water temperature of these originally cold-water ecosystems (regional mean in the late 1970s: 4.7 °C) may exceed 12 °C by the end of this century. We used bryophyte and macroinvertebrate species data from Finnish springs and spring-fed streams to assess ecological impacts of the predicted warming. An increase in spring water temperature by several degrees will likely have substantial biodiversity impacts, causing regional extinction of native, cold-stenothermal spring specialists, whereas species diversity of headwater generalists is likely to increase. Even a slight (by 1 °C) increase in water temperature may eliminate endemic spring species, thus altering bryophyte and macroinvertebrate assemblages of spring-fed streams. Climate change-induced warming of northern regions may thus alter species composition of the spring biota and cause regional homogenization of biodiversity in headwater ecosystems. PMID:26300476

  15. Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

    2015-04-01

    During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a

  16. On Cooperation and Competition: A Comparative Analysis of National Policies for Internationalisation of Higher Education in Seven Western European Countries

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luijten-Lub, Anneke; Van der Wende, Marijk; Huisman, Jeroen

    2005-01-01

    The focus of this article is on a comparison of the national policies for internationalisation in seven Western European countries (Austria, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, and the United Kingdom). In this comparison, it will be shown that the trend suggested in previous research of increasing economical rationales for…

  17. European Union and Greek Lifelong Learning Policy within an Intercultural Context: Preliminary Insights from Research in the Sociology of Law

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koutidou, Evangelia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents preliminary findings of an extensive socio-legal research project, currently in progress, concerning the implementation of the European Union and the Greek institutional framework on lifelong learning (LLL) and exploring the social effectiveness of LLL policy. The main outcomes, based on testing two research hypotheses through…

  18. The Modernisation of European Universities: Cross-National Academic Perspectives. Higher Education Research and Policy. Volume 1

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kwiek, Marek, Ed.; Kurkiewicz, Andrzej, Ed.

    2012-01-01

    The recent decade brought about new ways of thinking about universities. European-level educational policies became increasingly influential as the agenda of university reforms was viewed as part of greater Lisbon strategy reforms. National governments adopted the economic concept of the university consistently developed in subsequent official…

  19. The Globalisation Challenge for European Higher Education: Convergence and Diversity, Centres and Peripheries. Higher Education Research and Policy. Volume 4

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zgaga, Pavel, Ed.; Teichler, Ulrich, Ed.; Brennan, John, Ed.

    2013-01-01

    The last decade has marked the European higher education with a particular dynamics. Today, after a decade of a «concerted» policy, national systems look much more convergent but new questions and dilemmas are emerging: about its nature and quality, about real impact of recent reforms in different countries as well as about its future. The book…

  20. "Who Marks the Bench?" A Critical Review of the Neo-European "Paradigm Shift" through Higher Education Policies and Discourses

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pasias, George; Roussakis, Yannis

    2012-01-01

    This paper attempts to critically analyze the educational discourses and policies of the European Union over the last decade (2000-2010) in the context of the Lisbon Strategy initiatives (Council of the EU, 2000) and provide an account on "The Shape of Things to Come". It will be argued that the symbolic and actual construction of the "Europe of…

  1. Science and policy applicability of the transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelj, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Transient Climate Response to cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) provides a quantification of the near-linear relationship between cumulative emissions of carbon and global-mean temperature increase. For its most recent report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change bases its assessment on a large body of literature which encompasses multiple lines of evidence. In this session I will look at the literature basis that was available for TCRE at the time of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, providing an easy-to-access introduction into the TCRE concept. Building on this basis and summarizing my own recent work on this, I will discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the use of TCRE for climate policy. While the TCRE concept provides a clear long-term view of what is required to stabilize global-mean temperature increase, I will explore how TCRE uncertainties might pose problems for using TCRE as the only policy guidance in near-term policy decisions.

  2. Policy trade-offs between climate mitigation and clean cook-stove access in South Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cameron, Colin; Pachauri, Shonali; Rao, Narasimha D.; McCollum, David; Rogelj, Joeri; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-01-01

    Household air pollution from traditional cook stoves presents a greater health hazard than any other environmental factor. Despite government efforts to support clean-burning cooking fuels, over 700 million people in South Asia could still rely on traditional stoves in 2030. This number could rise if climate change mitigation efforts increase energy costs. Here we quantify the costs of support policies to make clean cooking affordable to all South Asians under four increasingly stringent climate policy scenarios. Our most stringent mitigation scenario increases clean fuel costs 38% in 2030 relative to the baseline, keeping 21% more South Asians on traditional stoves or increasing the minimum support policy cost to achieve universal clean cooking by up to 44%. The extent of this increase depends on how policymakers allocate subsidies between clean fuels and stoves. These additional costs are within the range of financial transfers to South Asia estimated in efforts-sharing scenarios of international climate agreements.

  3. An analysis of European riverine flood risk and adaptation measures under projected climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouwer, Laurens; Burzel, Andreas; Holz, Friederike; Winsemius, Hessel; de Bruijn, Karind

    2015-04-01

    There is increasing need to assess costs and benefits of adaptation at scales beyond the river basin. In Europe, such estimates are required at the European scale in order to set priorities for action and financing, for instance in the context of the EU Adaptation Strategy. The goal of this work as part of the FP7 BASE project is to develop a flood impact model that can be applied at Pan-European scale and that is able to project changes in flood risk due to climate change and socio-economic developments, and costs of adaptation. For this research, we build upon the global flood hazard estimation method developed by Winsemius et al. (Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 2013), that produces flood inundation maps at different return period, for present day (EU WATCH) and future climate (IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and 8.5, for five climate models). These maps are used for the assessment of flood impacts. We developed and tested a model for assessing direct economic flood damages by using large scale land use maps. We characterise vulnerable land use functions, in particular residential, commercial, industrial, infrastructure and agriculture, using depth-damage relationships. Furthermore, we apply up to NUTS3 level information on Gross Domestic Product, which is used as a proxy for relative differences in maximum damage values between different areas. Next, we test two adaptation measures, by adjusting flood protection levels and adjusting damage functions. The results show the projected changes in flood risk in the future. For example, on NUTS2 level, flood risk increases in some regions up to 179% (between the baseline scenario 1960-1999 and time slice 2010-2049). On country level there are increases up to 60% for selected climate models. The conference presentation will show the most relevant improvements in damage modelling on the continental scale, and results of the analysis of adaptation measures. The results will be critically discussed under the aspect of major

  4. The Discourse of Social Justice within European Education Policy Developments: The Example of Key Competences and Indicator Development towards Assuring the Continuation of Democracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoskins, Bryony

    2008-01-01

    Neo-liberal discourse is described by many critical education researchers as almost the only discourse within European education policy making. However, although this discourse clearly exists and is powerful, the author identifies an alternative discourse within European Union policy making which incorporates narratives of social justice,…

  5. European warming linked to Greenland melting during the Last Interglacial North Atlantic climate optimum

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sanchez Goni, M.; Michel, E.; Desprat, S.; Carlson, A. E.; Naughton, F.; Fletcher, W. J.; Rossignol, L.

    2010-12-01

    Recent models and data synthesis suggest that the Last Interglacial North Atlantic warm optimum, ~130 ±2 ka, corresponded with a sea level stand of 4-9 m higher than that of the present-day implying that a substantial part of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melted at that time. This makes this interglacial a good analogue for understanding the impact of the ongoing global warming and GIS melting on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and adjacent landmasses. Here we provide new insights on the impact of insolation and AMOC changes on western European ecosystems and climate and their regional transmission during an episode of GIS melting that can be considered somehow similar to that predicted for 2100 C.E. from IPCC projections. We have revisited three pollen-rich western European margin sequences distributed from 37 to 45°N, MD04-2845, MD95-2042 and MD99-2331, which span all of MIS 5 and are directly affected by the descending branch of the North Atlantic Drift. The analysis of these sequences allows us to directly correlate marine tracers of AMOC variability and changes in ice volume, sea surface temperature (SST), iceberg discharges and pollen-derived European vegetation and climate. The comparison of these observations with those inferred from other locations in the North Atlantic region directly affected by the AMOC and records from the Eirik Drift off southern Greenland document the response of North Atlantic climate to GIS melting during the Last Interglacial. Large and rapid increase in the Western European forest cover and mid-latitude North Atlantic SST at the beginning of MIS 5e benthic isotopic plateau following the YD-like event coincide with strong GIS melting. Despite continued GIS melting during this interval, AMOC strength gradually increases. The dramatic expansion of western European forest could be the result of both AMOC and insolation increase. Subsequently sustained warm SSTs and strong AMOC do not preclude the long term

  6. Induced technological change with applications to modeling of climate-change policies

    SciTech Connect

    Nordhaus, Wiliam D.

    2002-04-01

    This grant supported research on induced innovation in the energy sector and the implications of induced innovation for climate change and climate-change policy. The first part of the research investigated the impact of energy prices on inventive activity focusing on the energy sector. The purpose was to improve our understanding of the determinants of inventive activity and to examine a number of hypotheses and specifications of the relationship. The second part incorporated the theoretical specifications and empirical results of the first part into the DICE integrated assessment models of climate change. This resulted in a revised model, known as the ''R&DICE model,'' and the major results are forthcoming in Grubler, Nakicenovic, and Nordhaus (GNN), ''Induced Technological Change and the Environment, Resources for the Future'', Washington, D.C., 2002, in a chapter entitled, ''Modeling Induced Innovation in Climate-Change Policy.''

  7. How the Timing of Climate Change Policy Affects Infrastructure Turnover in the Electricity Sector: Engineering, Economic and Policy Considerations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izard, Catherine Finlay

    The electricity sector is responsible for producing 35% of US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Estimates suggest that ideally, the electricity sector would be responsible for approximately 85% of emissions abatement associated with climate polices such as America's Clean Energy and Security Act (ACES). This is equivalent to ˜50% cumulative emissions reductions below projected cumulative business-as-usual (BAU) emissions. Achieving these levels of emissions reductions will require dramatic changes in the US electricity generating infrastructure: almost all of the fossil-generation fleet will need to be replaced with low-carbon sources and society is likely to have to maintain a high build rate of new capacity for decades. Unfortunately, the inertia in the electricity sector means that there may be physical constraints to the rate at which new electricity generating capacity can be built. Because the build rate of new electricity generating capacity may be limited, the timing of regulation is critical---the longer the U.S. waits to start reducing GHG emissions, the faster the turnover in the electricity sector must occur in order to meet the same target. There is a real, and thus far unexplored, possibility that the U.S. could delay climate change policy implementation for long enough that it becomes infeasible to attain the necessary rate of turnover in the electricity sector. This dissertation investigates the relationship between climate policy timing and infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector. The goal of the dissertation is to answer the question: How long can we wait before constraints on infrastructure turnover in the electricity sector make achieving our climate goals impossible? Using the Infrastructure Flow Assessment Model, which was developed in this work, this dissertation shows that delaying climate change policy increases average retirements rates by 200-400%, increases average construction rates by 25-85% and increases maximum construction

  8. The European Union Food Distribution programme for the Most Deprived Persons of the community, 1987-2013: From agricultural policy to social inclusion policy?

    PubMed

    Caraher, Martin

    2015-07-01

    The European Union Food Distribution programme for the Most Deprived Persons (MDP) of the community ran from 1987 until 2013. It was funded from Common Agricultural Policy budgets. The programme initially made use of surplus foods from the food mountains resulting from intervention stocks. This food was then distributed through aid agencies within member states, coordinated at a national government level. Reform of the CAP and global rises in food prices resulted in an increase in budget from €300 to €500 million Euros in 2010 with the added power to buy food on the open market. This led to a formal challenge to the scheme on the basis that buying goods on the open market shifted the emphasis from an agricultural/financial basis to a social one. A court ruling found that because the program was no longer used for removing surpluses the link to agriculture policy has become tenuous and therefore had no basis in community law. As a result of this legal challenge a number of policy compromises ensured the MDP would continue until the end of 2013 with a reduced budget. The scheme has been superseded by a new scheme in March 2014 called the Fund for European Aid to the Most Deprived (FEAD). This is seen as a social programme. The way that policy and politics developed and changed the MDP programme are set out. The article tracks its move from being an agricultural policy to a social welfare one. The key policy players and actors in this move are set out as are the changing context and policy frameworks. The replacement of the MDP by FEAD is discussed as is how intensive lobbying in 2012/13 resulted in the development of a new Fund for European Aid to the Most Deprived (FEAD). PMID:26001298

  9. Trade-offs of different land and bioenergy policies on the path to achieving climate targets

    SciTech Connect

    Calvin, Katherine V.; Wise, Marshall A.; Kyle, G. Page; Patel, Pralit L.; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.

    2013-10-16

    Many papers have shown that bioenergy and land-use are potentially important elements in a strategy to limit anthropogenic climate change. But, significant expansion of bioenergy production can have a large terrestrial footprint. In this paper, we test the implications for land use, the global energy system, carbon cycle, and carbon prices of meeting a specific climate target, using a single fossil fuel and industrial sector policy instrument—the carbon tax, but with five alternative bioenergy and land-use policy architectures. We find that the policies we examined have differing effects on the different segments of the economy. Comprehensive land policies can reduce land-use change emissions, increasing allowable emissions in the energy system, but have implications for the cost of food. Bioenergy taxes and constraints, on the other hand, have little effect on food prices, but can result in increased carbon and energy prices.

  10. The Climaware project: Impacts of climate change on water resources management - regional strategies and European view

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thirel, Guillaume; D'Agostino, Daniela; Démerliac, Stéphane; Dorchies, David; Flörke, Martina; Jay-Allemand, Maxime; Jost, Claudine; Kehr, Katrin; Perrin, Charles; Scardigno, Alessandra; Schneider, Christof; Theobald, Stephan; Träbing, Klaus

    2014-05-01

    Climate projections produced with CMIP5 and applied by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in its fifth assessment report indicate that changes in precipitation and temperature are expected to occur throughout Europe in the 21th century, with a likely decrease of water availability in many regions. Besides, water demand is also expected to increase, in link with these expected climate modifications, but also due to socio-economic and demographic changes. In this respect, the use of future freshwater resources may not be sustainable from the current water management perspective. Therefore adaptation strategies will most likely be needed to cope with these evolutions. In this context, the main objective of the ClimAware project (2010-2013 - www.uni-kassel.de/fb14/wasserbau/CLIMAWARE/, a project implemented within the IWRM-NET Funding Initiative) was to analyse the impacts of climate change (CC) on freshwater resources at the continental and regional scales and to identify efficient adaptation strategies to improve water management for various socio-economic sectors. This should contribute to a more effective implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and its instruments (river basin management plans, programmes of measures). The project developed integrated measures for improved freshwater management under CC constraints. More specifically, the objectives of the ClimAware project were to: • elaborate quantitative projections of changes in river flows and consequences such as flood frequency, drought occurrence and sectorial water uses. • analyse the effect of CC on the hydromorphological reference conditions of rivers and therefore the definition of "good status". • define management rules/strategies concerning dam management and irrigation practices on different time perspectives. • investigate uncertainties in climate model - scenario combinations. The research approach considered both European and regional perspectives, to get

  11. Comparison and interactions between the long-term pursuit of energy independence and climate policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jewell, Jessica; Vinichenko, Vadim; McCollum, David; Bauer, Nico; Riahi, Keywan; Aboumahboub, Tino; Fricko, Oliver; Harmsen, Mathijs; Kober, Tom; Krey, Volker; Marangoni, Giacomo; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; van der Zwaan, Bob; Cherp, Aleh

    2016-06-01

    Ensuring energy security and mitigating climate change are key energy policy priorities. The recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report emphasized that climate policies can deliver energy security as a co-benefit, in large part through reducing energy imports. Using five state-of-the-art global energy-economy models and eight long-term scenarios, we show that although deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions would reduce energy imports, the reverse is not true: ambitious policies constraining energy imports would have an insignificant impact on climate change. Restricting imports of all fuels would lower twenty-first-century emissions by only 2–15% against the Baseline scenario as compared with a 70% reduction in a 450 stabilization scenario. Restricting only oil imports would have virtually no impact on emissions. The modelled energy independence targets could be achieved at policy costs comparable to those of existing climate pledges but a fraction of the cost of limiting global warming to 2 ∘C.

  12. An empirical examination of echo chambers in US climate policy networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jasny, Lorien; Waggle, Joseph; Fisher, Dana R.

    2015-08-01

    Diverse methods have been applied to understand why science continues to be debated within the climate policy domain. A number of studies have presented the notion of the `echo chamber' to model and explain information flows across an array of social settings, finding disproportionate connections among ideologically similar political communicators. This paper builds on these findings to provide a more formal operationalization of the components of echo chambers. We then empirically test their utility using survey data collected from the community of political elites engaged in the contentious issue of climate politics in the United States. Our survey period coincides with the most active and contentious period in the history of US climate policy, when legislation regulating carbon dioxide emissions had passed through the House of Representatives and was being considered in the Senate. We use exponential random graph (ERG) modelling to demonstrate that both the homogeneity of information (the echo) and multi-path information transmission (the chamber) play significant roles in policy communication. We demonstrate that the intersection of these components creates echo chambers in the climate policy network. These results lead to some important conclusions about climate politics, as well as the relationship between science communication and policymaking at the elite level more generally.

  13. Campus Racial Climate Policies: The View from the Bottom Up.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Michelle Hughes; Anderson, Rick; Cannon, Julie Harms; Perez, Eduardo; Moore, Helen A.

    1998-01-01

    Reviews debates over campus multicultural goals from the perspectives of university officials and 433 students. The role of campus experiences and diverse racial/ethnic and socioeconomic backgrounds in shaping these opinions was considered. Findings demonstrate important patterns in student policy attitudes linked to racial/ethnic status.…

  14. Linking Climate Risk, Policy Networks and Adaptation Planning in Public Lands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lubell, M.; Schwartz, M.; Peters, C.

    2014-12-01

    Federal public land management agencies in the United States have engaged a variety of planning efforts to address climate adaptation. A major goal of these efforts is to build policy networks that enable land managers to access information and expertise needed for responding to local climate risks. This paper investigates whether the perceived and modeled climate risk faced by different land managers is leading to larger networks or more participating in climate adaptation. In theory, the benefits of climate planning networks are larger when land managers are facing more potential changes. The basic hypothesis is tested with a survey of public land managers from hundreds of local and regional public lands management units in the Southwestern United States, as well as other stakeholders involved with climate adaptation planning. All survey respondents report their perceptions of climate risk along a variety of dimensions, as well as their participation in climate adaptation planning and information sharing networks. For a subset of respondents, we have spatially explicity GIS data about their location, which will be linked with downscaled climate model data. With the focus on climate change, the analysis is a subset of the overall idea of linking social and ecological systems.

  15. Support for climate policy and societal action are linked to perceptions about scientific agreement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ding, Ding; Maibach, Edward W.; Zhao, Xiaoquan; Roser-Renouf, Connie; Leiserowitz, Anthony

    2011-12-01

    Although a majority of US citizens think that the president and Congress should address global warming, only a minority think it should be a high priority. Previous research has shown that four key beliefs about climate change--that it is real, human caused, serious and solvable--are important predictors of support for climate policies. Other research has shown that organized opponents of climate legislation have sought to undermine public support by instilling the belief that there is widespread disagreement among climate scientists about these points--a view shown to be widely held by the public. Here we examine if this misperception is consequential. We show that the misperception is strongly associated with reduced levels of policy support and injunctive beliefs (that is, beliefs that action should be taken to mitigate global warming). The relationship is mediated by the four previously identified key beliefs about climate change, especially people's certainty that global warming is occurring. In short, people who believe that scientists disagree on global warming tend to feel less certain that global warming is occurring, and show less support for climate policy. This suggests the potential importance of correcting the widely held public misperception about lack of scientific agreement on global warming.

  16. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crippa, Monica; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Dentener, Frank; Guizzardi, Diego; Sindelarova, Katerina; Muntean, Marilena; Van Dingenen, Rita; Granier, Claire

    2016-03-01

    The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research) global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3) and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon) air pollutants for the period 1970-2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport), which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3) higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27), demonstrating the large role that technology has

  17. Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertram, Christoph; Luderer, Gunnar; Pietzcker, Robert C.; Schmid, Eva; Kriegler, Elmar; Edenhofer, Ottmar

    2015-03-01

    Economic theory suggests that comprehensive carbon pricing is most efficient to reach ambitious climate targets, and previous studies indicated that the carbon price required for limiting global mean warming to 2 °C is between US$16 and US$73 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 (ref. ). Yet, a global implementation of such high carbon prices is unlikely to be politically feasible in the short term. Instead, most climate policies enacted so far are technology policies or fragmented and moderate carbon pricing schemes. This paper shows that ambitious climate targets can be kept within reach until 2030 despite a sub-optimal policy mix. With a state-of-the-art energy-economy model we quantify the interactions and unique effects of three major policy components: (1) a carbon price starting at US$7 per tonne of CO2 in 2015 to incentivize economy-wide mitigation, flanked by (2) support for low-carbon energy technologies to pave the way for future decarbonization, and (3) a moratorium on new coal-fired power plants to limit stranded assets. We find that such a mix limits the efficiency losses compared with the optimal policy, and at the same time lowers distributional impacts. Therefore, we argue that this instrument mix might be a politically more feasible alternative to the optimal policy based on a comprehensive carbon price alone.

  18. Using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis to assess climate variability for the European wind industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bett, Philip E.; Thornton, Hazel E.; Clark, Robin T.

    2015-09-01

    We characterise the long-term variability of European near-surface wind speeds using 142 years of data from the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), and consider the potential of such long-baseline climate data sets for wind energy applications. The low resolution of the 20CR would severely restrict its use on its own for wind farm site-screening. We therefore perform a simple statistical calibration to link it to the higher-resolution ERA-Interim data set (ERAI), such that the adjusted 20CR data has the same wind speed distribution at each location as ERAI during their common period. Using this corrected 20CR data set, wind speeds and variability are characterised in terms of the long-term mean, standard deviation and corresponding trends. Many regions of interest show extremely weak trends on century timescales, but contain large multidecadal variability. Since reanalyses such as ERAI are often used to provide the background climatology for wind farm site assessments, but contain only a few decades of data, our results can be used as a way of incorporating decadal-scale wind climate variability into such studies, allowing investment risks for wind farms to be reduced.

  19. Simulated European stalagmite record and its relation to a quasi-decadal climate mode

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lohmann, G.; Wackerbarth, A.; Langebroek, P.; Werner, M.; Fohlmeister, J.; Scholz, D.; Mangini, A.

    2012-08-01

    A synthetic stalagmite record for the Bunker cave is constructed using a combined climate-stalagmite modeling approach. The power spectrum of the simulated speleothem calcite δ18O record has a pronounced peak at quasi-decadal time scale. Interestingly, mixing processes in the soil and karst above the cave represent a natural low-pass filter of the speleothem climate archive. We identify a quasi-decadal mode characterized by a "tripole pattern" of sea surface temperature affecting stalagmite δ18O values. This pattern, which is well-known in literature as the quasi-decadal mode in the North Atlantic, propagates eastwards and affects western European temperature surrounding the cave. Stalagmite δ18O values at Bunker Cave lag the regional surface temperature (r = 0.4) and soil moisture (r = -0.4) signal by 2-3 yr. Our modelling study suggests that stalagmite records from Bunker Cave are representative for large-scale teleconnections and can be used to obtain information about the North Atlantic and its decadal variability.

  20. Long term effects on regional European boreal climate due to structural vegetation changes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rydsaa, J. H.; Stordal, F.; Tallaksen, L. M.

    2014-11-01

    Amplified warming at high latitudes over the past decades has led to changes in the boreal and arctic climate system, such as structural changes in high latitude ecosystems and soil moisture properties. These changes trigger land-atmosphere feedbacks, through altered energy partitioning in response to changes in albedo and surface water fluxes. Local scale changes in the arctic and boreal zone may propagate to affect large scale climatic features. In this study, MODIS land surface data are used with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF V3.5.1) and Noah LSM, in a series of experiments to simulate the influence of structural vegetation changes over a Northern European boreal ecosystem. Emphasis is placed on surface energy partitioning and near surface atmospheric variables, in order to investigate changes in atmospheric response due to observed and anticipated structural vegetation changes. We find that a northward migration of evergreen needle leaf forest into tundra regions causes an increase in latent rather than sensible heat fluxes, increased near surface temperatures and boundary layer height. Shrub expansion in tundra areas has only small effects on surface fluxes. However, it influences near surface wind speeds and boundary layer height. Northward migration of mixed forest across the present southern border of the boreal forest has largely opposite effects on surface fluxes and the near surface atmosphere, and acts to moderate the overall mean regional effects of boreal forest migration on the near surface atmosphere.

  1. Confluence of climate change policies and international trade

    SciTech Connect

    Vickery, R.E. Jr.

    1997-12-31

    The paper summarizes market information on energy conservation and renewable energy industries in the U.S., and highlights activities of the International Trade Administration. International treaties agreements on environmental issues are examined with respect to their influence on U.S. trade promotion and job creation. A sectoral analysis of the economic impact of greenhouse gas emissions reductions on industries is very briefly summarized. Finally, the need for a climate change treaty in spite of possible adverse impacts is discussed. 1 tab.

  2. Regional aspects of climate change impacts and related adaptation options in European agriculture

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eitzinger, J.

    2009-09-01

    Through a change in climatic conditions and variability, for example, extreme weather events (heat waves, droughts, etc.) are likely to occur more frequently in different spatial and time scales in future. Since agriculture is one the man' activities more dependant on weather behaviour, the impact on risks of agricultural production is indeed one of the most important issues in climate change assessments. Therefore an early recognition of risks and implementation of adaptation strategies is crucial as anticipatory and precautionary adaptation is more effective and less costly than forced, last minute, emergency adaptation or retrofitting. Results of climate change impact and adaptation studies often show considerable different results, depending on the spatial scale of regionalisation. However, for a decision maker, only a high spatial resolution of related study results are useful as it can represent local conditions and its spatial variablitiy much better. Therefore the ADAGIO project (adagio-eu.org) was designed to focus on regional studies in order to uncover regional specific problems. In this context a bottom-up approach is used beside the top-down approach of using scientifc studies, involving regional experts and farmers in the evaluation of potential regional vulnerabilites and adaptation options. Preliminary results of the regional studies and gathered feedback from experts and farmers show in general that (increasing) drought and heat is the main factor having impact on agricultural vulnerability not only in the mediterranean region, but also in the Central and Eastern European regions. Another important aspect is that the increasing risk of pest and diseases may play a more important role for agricultural vulnerability than assumed before, however, till now this field is only rarely investigated in Europe. An important aspect is also that there are increasing regional differences in the crop production potential in Europe due to climate change and that

  3. Variations in European ammonia emissions due to daily weather fluctuations and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ambelas Skjøth, C.; Geels, C.

    2012-04-01

    Ammonia plays an important role in atmospheric processes. It is the main alkaline component in the atmosphere and is highly reactive in forming either aerosols or by depositing fast to most surfaces including sensitive ecosystems. The geographical distribution of ammonia emission has been highly studied, while the temporal variations have been somewhat neglected. Climate and daily meteorology affects the temporal distribution and the amount of ammonia emissions. This forms an important feed-back mechanism e.g. by changing ammonia emissions thus affecting aerosol composition and the sensitive ecosystems through associated nitrogen depositions. This feed-back mechanism has so far been overlooked in climate change and earth system science studies. Here we assess annual variations in ammonia emissions in central and Northern Europe as well as emission changes due to projected temperature changes in the future. We use the dynamical ammonia emission model (Skjøth et al., 2011) within the DAMOS system (Geels et al., 2012) with focus on the period 2000-2100. The model use hourly meteorological data from the MM5 model and bias-corrected climate data from the ENSEMBLES project. The model reproduces hourly changes in ammonia emissions due to climate and is also capable of taking into account changes in production methods as well as policy measures. Here we study the effect of climate change on five main agricultural sources to ammonia: 1) heated stables, 2) open cattle barns, 3) storage facilities, 4) animal waste and mineral fertilizer 5) grazing animals. Climate change increase emissions due to increased temperatures. The expected increase in ammonia emissions is typically 20-40% for cattle barns, storage facilities and application of manure in form of animal waste. Heated stables (e.g. pigs and poultry) are only marginally affected by climatic changes as these sources typically are heated to maintain a constant temperature. The heated stables therefore have a more or less

  4. Summary for Policy Makers: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report Renewable Energy Sources (SRREN)

    SciTech Connect

    Arvizu, Dan; Bruckner, Thomas; Christensen, John; Devernay, Jean-Michel; Faaij , Andre; Fischedick, Manfred; Goldstein, Barry; Hansen, Gerrit; Huckerby , John; Jager-Waldau, Arnulf; Kadner, Susanne; Kammen, Daniel; Krey, Volker; Kumar, Arun; Lewis , Anthony; Lucon, Oswaldo; Matschoss, Patrick; Maurice, Lourdes; Mitchell , Catherine; Moomaw, William; Moreira, Jose; Nadai, Alain; Nilsson, Lars J.; Nyboer, John; Rahman, Atiq; Sathaye, Jayant; Sawin, Janet; Schaeffer, Roberto; Schei, Tormod; Schlomer, Steffen; Sims, Ralph; von Stechow, Christoph; Verbruggen, Aviel; Urama, Kevin; Wiser, Ryan; Yamba, Francis; Zwickel, Timm

    2011-05-08

    The Working Group III Special Report on Renewable Energy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation (SRREN) presents an assessment of the literature on the scientific, technological, environmental, economic and social aspects of the contribution of six renewable energy (RE) sources to the mitigation of climate change. It is intended to provide policy relevant information to governments, intergovernmental processes and other interested parties. This Summary for Policymakers provides an overview of the SRREN, summarizing the essential findings. The SRREN consists of 11 chapters. Chapter 1 sets the context for RE and climate change; Chapters 2 through 7 provide information on six RE technologies, and Chapters 8 through 11 address integrative issues.

  5. Durability of the Indian Kandla Grey sandstone under Western European climatic conditions.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boever, W.; Cnudde, V.; Dewanckele, J.; De Kock, T.; Boone, M.; Boone, M. N.; Silversmit, G.; Van Ranst, E.; Derluyn, H.; Peetermans, S.; Hovind, J.; Modregger, P.; Stampanoni, M.; De Buysser, K.; De Schutter, G.

    2012-04-01

    An increasing amount of imported natural building stones are being used in Western Europe, often as a replacement of more traditional, local building stones. Unlike for these traditional stones, which have been used under the prevailing climatic conditions in Western Europe, the durability of these imported stones is largely unknown. Therefore, it is essential to study their behaviour under these climatic conditions in order to predict their weathering resistance. Thus, the chemical and structural properties of these new building materials need to be determined and their behaviour under changing environmental conditions needs to be studied. When these materials are being used in Western Europe, they have to resist to significant mechanical stresses due to the imbibition of de-icing salt solutions. These de-icing salts are very frequently used during winter in Western Europe, while temperature fluctuates between freezing and thaw conditions. In this research, focus has been laid on the multi-disciplinary characterization of the compact Kandla Grey layered sandstone. This stone is recently frequently imported from India to Belgium. Besides traditional techniques, (according to European Standards for natural stone testing) highly advanced research techniques such as neutron and X-ray imaging (at synchrotron and in laboratory) and µ-XRF were used to characterize and monitor the changes under different external conditions such as freezing, thawing and salt crystallization. The results of this study demonstrate that the structural properties of the laminations inside Kandla Grey have an influence on the resistance of the stone to frost and salt weathering. Based on these results, it can be concluded that Kandla Grey can be vulnerable to these types of weathering under the current climatic conditions in Western Europe.

  6. The role of science assessments in policy making in response to climatic change

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, J.

    1996-12-31

    The paper traces three scientific debates on issues related to anthropogenic climate change: the introduction of non-CO{sub 2} greenhouse gases into assessments; the assessment of the climate sensitivity; and the changing evaluations of the risk of sea-level rise. These stories illustrate how science assessments affected the perceived urgency of the response as well as showing the nature of climate change assessments and the role they have played in developing a policy response to climatic change. Looking at major assessments of the magnitude and timing of the potential climatic change also gives clear indications of factors that contribute to a successful scientific assessment. These factors include broad international participation, careful preparation of peer-reviewed executive summaries and the avoidance of parallel assessments which require input from one another. The material presented in this paper is based on the output from a major international project on Social Learning in the Management of Global Environmental Risks.

  7. How much can disaster and climate science contribute to loss and damage mechanisms in international climate policy?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huggel, Christian; Allen, Simon; Eicken, Hajo; Hansen, Gerrit; Stone, Dáithí

    2015-04-01

    As the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recently has shown, there is increasing evidence of observed impacts of climate change on natural and human systems. Some of these impacts are negative and result in damage and loss of lives and assets. In international climate policy negotiations under the UNFCCC the discussions on loss and damage have gained significant traction during the past negotiation rounds. At COP 19 the Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WIM) was created as an institutional arrangement to address this issue. Thereby, loss and damage (L&D) are typically defined as the residual damage and loss that occur beyond mitigation and adaptation efforts. This implies that effective mitigation and adaptation policy can substantially reduce L&D. While there is wide agreement that knowledge and understanding needs to be strengthened on how L&D due to climate change affects countries, in particular highly vulnerable countries and populations, there is still substantial disagreement on several aspects. In fact, after COP20 in Lima a number of options are on the table, including whether L&D should be located under the adaptation framework or form a separate institutional arrangement, or whether a compensation regime should be established to support developing countries. Similarly, the scientific framework for a clear L&D concept, its application in real-world cases, and implications for international climate policy, in particular with respect to questions of responsibility, liability, compensation and financing, is still evolving. Earlier proposals, for instance, have included a threshold concept, with payments released upon crossing of certain thresholds of climate (related) parameters, similar to insurance procedures. The threshold would be defined as a departure of the parameter from baseline conditions, for instance a rainfall event that is more intense than a certain baseline based threshold. Further

  8. European river flow regimes: assessing space-time dynamics and links to large-scale climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hannah, D. M.; Kingston, D. G.; Laize, C.; Lavers, D. A.; Wilson, D.

    2011-12-01

    Given heightened concerns about climate change/ variability and human impacts on hydrology, there is a pressing need for research to quantify temporal variability and spatial structure in river flow regimes, and to establish hydroclimatological (climate-flow) associations as a basis for predicting future water stress. This paper draws together findings from studies undertaken at the UK and pan-European scale (using datasets of >100 stations with time series >25 years) and aims: (1) to demonstrate the utility of classification schemes for identifying space-time patterns in river flow regimes and (2) to explore the hydroclimatological relationships between large-scale atmospheric circulation and river flow response. Often, classification is undertaken prior to detailed analysis of large-scale patterns in river flow. In this paper, a suite of novel cluster analysis based methods are presented that identify hydrological regions as well as inter-annual river flow regime variation within regions. Statistical characteristics of the emergent classifications are analysed including geographical expression, teleconnections and presence of time-series trends. Results show that classification provides a useful general organising framework for large-scale hydrological research and facilitates systematic testing of hypotheses about drivers of hydrological variation across wide spatial domains. To investigate climate controls on space-time river flow variation, three methods for characterising atmospheric influences are considered: air-mass types, large-scale climate indices and gridded re-analyses (ECMWF ERA-40). A new air-mass classification for Europe (Spatial Synoptic Classification 2) is presented that classifies daily air-masses. Data are pooled by long-term flow regime regions to assess air-mass - flow regime (shape and magnitude) class associations across Europe; and multiple discriminant function analysis (MDFA) is used to model links between the categorical data. The

  9. Climate Change Adaptation Among Tibetan Pastoralists: Challenges in Enhancing Local Adaptation Through Policy Support

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Yao; Grumbine, R. Edward; Wilkes, Andreas; Wang, Yun; Xu, Jian-Chu; Yang, Yong-Ping

    2012-10-01

    While researchers are aware that a mix of Local Ecological Knowledge (LEK), community-based resource management institutions, and higher-level institutions and policies can facilitate pastoralists' adaptation to climate change, policy makers have been slow to understand these linkages. Two critical issues are to what extent these factors play a role, and how to enhance local adaptation through government support. We investigated these issues through a case study of two pastoral communities on the Tibetan Plateau in China employing an analytical framework to understand local climate adaptation processes. We concluded that LEK and community-based institutions improve adaptation outcomes for Tibetan pastoralists through shaping and mobilizing resource availability to reduce risks. Higher-level institutions and policies contribute by providing resources from outside communities. There are dynamic interrelationships among these factors that can lead to support, conflict, and fragmentation. Government policy could enhance local adaptation through improvement of supportive relationships among these factors. While central government policies allow only limited room for overt integration of local knowledge/institutions, local governments often have some flexibility to buffer conflicts. In addition, government policies to support market-based economic development have greatly benefited adaptation outcomes for pastoralists. Overall, in China, there are still questions over how to create innovative institutions that blend LEK and community-based institutions with government policy making.

  10. Two Billion Cars: What it Means for Climate and Energy Policy

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel Sperling

    2009-04-15

    April 13, 2009: Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis, presents the next installment of Berkeley Lab's Environmental Energy Technologies Divisions Distinguished Lecture series. He discusses Two Billion Cars and What it Means for Climate and Energy Policy.

  11. Natural Hazards and Climate Change: Making the Link for Policy Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Folger, P.

    2003-04-01

    Debate about global warming in the U.S. Congress often deteriorates when proposals for restricting consumption of fossil fuels, and thus curtailing carbon dioxide emissions, is mentioned. The negative economic implications of curtailing CO2 emissions often stifle Congressional thinking about strategies to deal with climate change. Some policy makers often malign climate change research as irrelevant to their citizens, e.g. why is simulating temperature trends 100 years into the future meaningful to their voters? An alternative approach is to connect climate change with ongoing natural events such as severe weather, drought and floods. These extreme events may or may not be exacerbated by anthropogenic CO2 emissions, but policy makers can debate and legislate approaches to mitigate against natural hazards now without mentioning carbon. What strategy might connect research results on understanding climate change and natural hazards mitigation in their minds? 1. Identify a specific situation where a key legislator's voters are threatened or affected by extreme natural phenomena, 2. Suggest a policy approach that provides protection or relief for those constituents, 3. Help the policy maker vet the idea within and without the scientific community, 4.Turn that idea into legislation and advocate for its passage.

  12. Two Billion Cars: What it Means for Climate and Energy Policy

    ScienceCinema

    Daniel Sperling

    2010-01-08

    April 13, 2009: Daniel Sperling, director of the Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Davis, presents the next installment of Berkeley Lab's Environmental Energy Technologies Divisions Distinguished Lecture series. He discusses Two Billion Cars and What it Means for Climate and Energy Policy.

  13. Recent Trends in National Policy on Education for Sustainable Development and Climate Change Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Laessøe, Jeppe; Mochizuki, Yoko

    2015-01-01

    Climate change education (CCE) is a new phenomenon which is gaining increasing significance in the work of international organizations and international non-governmental organizations. Based primarily on a cross-national desk study of national policy documents relevant to CCE in 17 countries, which was commissioned by UNESCO to gain a robust…

  14. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China.

    PubMed

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L; Sabel, Clive E

    2016-03-01

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn't been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high-tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co-benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered. PMID:27007389

  15. Do Climate Change Policies Promote or Conflict with Subjective Wellbeing: A Case Study of Suzhou, China

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Hiscock, Rosemary; Li, Qin; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L.; Sabel, Clive E.

    2016-01-01

    As public expectations for health rise, health measurements broaden from a focus on death, disease, and disability to wellbeing. However, wellbeing hasn’t been incorporated into the framework of climate change policy decision-making in Chinese cities. Based on survey data (n = 763) from Suzhou, this study used Generalized Estimation Equation approach to model external conditions associated with wellbeing. Then, semi-quantitative analyses were conducted to provide a first indication to whether local climate change policies promote or conflict with wellbeing through altering these conditions. Our findings suggested: (i) Socio-demographic (age, job satisfaction, health), psychosocial (satisfaction with social life, ontological security/resilience) and environmental conditions (distance to busy road, noise annoyance and range hoods in the kitchen) were significantly associated with wellbeing; (ii) None of existing climate change strategies in Suzhou conflict with wellbeing. Three mitigation policies (promotion of tertiary and high–tech industry, increased renewable energy in buildings, and restrictions on car use) and one adaption policy (increasing resilience) brought positive co–benefits for wellbeing, through the availability of high-satisfied jobs, reduced dependence on range hoods, noise reduction, and valuing citizens, respectively. This study also provided implications for other similar Chinese cities that potential consequences of climate change interventions for wellbeing should be considered. PMID:27007389

  16. Policy Directions Addressing the Public Health Impact of Climate Change in South Korea: The Climate-change Health Adaptation and Mitigation Program.

    PubMed

    Shin, Yong Seung; Ha, Jongsik

    2012-01-01

    Climate change, caused by global warming, is increasingly recognized as a major threat to mankind's survival. Climate change concurrently has both direct and modifying influences on environmental, social, and public health systems undermining human health as a whole. Environmental health policy-makers need to make use of political and technological alternatives to address these ramifying effects. The objective of this paper is to review public health policy in Korea, as well as internationally, particularly as it relates to climate change health adaptation and mitigation programs (such as C-CHAMP of Korea), in order to assess and elicit directions for a robust environmental health policy that is adaptive to the health impacts of climate change. In Korea, comprehensive measures to prevent or mitigate overall health effects are limited, and the diffusion of responsibility among various government departments makes consistency in policy execution very difficult. This paper proposes integration, synergy, and utilization as the three core principles of policy direction for the assessment and adaptation to the health impacts of climate change. For specific action plans, we suggest policy making based on scientifically integrated health impact assessments and the prioritization of environmental factors in climate change; the development of practical and technological tools that support policy decisions by making their political implementation more efficient; and customized policy development that deals with the vulnerability of local communities. PMID:23256088

  17. Coastal Blue Carbon: Climate and Coastal Resilience National and International Policy Opportunities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sutton-Grier, A.; McCarty, A.

    2014-12-01

    There is growing interest nationally and internationally in leveraging the carbon benefits (termed "blue carbon") of coastal habitats in climate and coastal resilience policies. Coastal wetlands (specifically mangroves, salt marshes, and seagrass meadows) have unique characteristics that make them incredibly efficient, natural carbon sinks with most carbon stored belowground in soils. Protecting and restoring these ecosystems around the globe will help maintain all the societal benefits these ecosystems provide including the natural climate mitigation benefits, but also the food security, water quality, and storm protection benefits that enhance coastal communities and economies. This presentation will focus on some emerging policy opportunities including: (1) incorporation of coastal wetland carbon in U.S. national climate, resilience, and conservation efforts; (2) potential steps to incorporate coastal wetlands in national greenhouse gas inventories as suggested by the 2013 International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Wetlands Supplement; and (3) dialogue at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) about blue carbon habitats and their potential for inclusion. The presentation will conclude by highlighting some of the most pressing blue carbon scientific gaps that need to be filled in order to support these developing policies.

  18. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Shindell, D. T.; Faluvegi, G.; Pinder, R. W.

    2015-11-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that reduces 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using NASA GISS ModelE2, we look at the impacts in year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions and the rest of the world emissions are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in the future but result in positive radiative forcing. Surface PM2.5 is reduced by ~ 2 μg m-3 on average over the US, and surface ozone by ~ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the US, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (~ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduces the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) by both aerosols direct and indirect forcing: total RF is ~ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe; ~ 0.8 W m-2 over the US. Under the hypothetical climate policy, future US energy relies less on coal and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it leads to climate dis-benefits over the US. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing, while the global mean total RF is -0.06 W m-2 due to the dominant negative CO2 RF (instantaneous RF). To achieve a regional-scale climate benefit via a climate policy, it is critical (1) to have multi-national efforts to reduce GHGs emissions and (2) to target emission reduction of light-absorbing species (e.g., BC and O3) on top of long-lived species. The latter is very desirable as the

  19. Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy integration in Zambia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pilli-Sihvola, K.; Väätäinen-Chimpuku, S.

    2015-12-01

    Integration of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) policies, their implementation measures and the contribution of these to development has been gaining attention recently. Due to the shared objectives of CCA and particularly Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a component of DRM, their integration provides many benefits. At the implementation level, DRR and CCA are usually integrated. Policy integration, however, is often lacking. This study presents a novel analysis of the policy integration of DRR and CCA by 1) suggesting a definition for their integration at a general and further at horizontal and vertical levels, 2) using an analysis framework for policy integration cycle, which separates the policy formulation and implementation processes, and 3) applying these to a case study in Zambia. Moreover, the study identifies the key gaps in the integration process, obtains an understanding of identified key factors for creating an enabling environment for the integration, and provides recommendations for further progress. The study is based on a document analysis of the relevant DRM, climate change (CC), agriculture, forestry, water management and meteorology policy documents and Acts, and 21 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders. Horizontal integration has occurred both ways, as the revised DRM policy draft has incorporated CCA, and the new CC policy draft has incorporated DRR. This is not necessarily an optimal strategy and unless carefully implemented, it may create pressure on institutional structures and duplication of efforts in the implementation. Much less vertical integration takes place, and where it does, no guidance on how potential goal conflicts with sectorial and development objectives ought to be handled. The objectives of the instruments show convergence. At the programme stage, the measures are fully integrated as they can be classified as robust CCA measures, providing benefits in the current and future

  20. Characterizing the species composition of European Culicoides vectors by means of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Biting midges of the genus Culicoides spp. (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are vectors for the Bluetongue virus, the African horse sickness virus and the recently emerged Schmallenberg virus. Here, species of the C. obsoletus complex, the C. pulicaris complex and C. imicola were considered. The objective was to compile a map of these Culicoides species and their relation to the popular climate classification defined by Wladimir Köppen and Rudolf Geiger to provide a quick view on the species composition in Europe. Findings Major parts of Central and Northern Europe are covered by a warm temperate fully humid climate, characterized by warm summers. For this so-called Cfb climate fractions of 89% C. obsoletus complex and 11% C. pulicaris complex were estimated. Further investigations comprise the continental climate Dfb (76% C. obsoletus, 24% C. pulicaris), the warm temperate climate with hot summers Cfa (35% C. obsoletus, 65% C. pulicaris), the warm temperate dry climate, characterized by warm summers Csb (38% C. obsoletus, 51% C. pulicaris, 11% C. imicola) and the warm temperate dry climate with hot summers Csa of the Mediterranean area (11% C. obsoletus, 12% C. pulicaris, 77% C. imicola). Conclusions A highly significant association coefficient of RV = 0.64 (Cramer’s V) confirms the correlation between Culicoides spp. and climate zones. Moreover, climate projections for the end of the century give an impression on expected changes in the European Culicoides spp. composition. PMID:24267276

  1. Health risks of climate change: An assessment of uncertainties and its implications for adaptation policies

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Projections of health risks of climate change are surrounded with uncertainties in knowledge. Understanding of these uncertainties will help the selection of appropriate adaptation policies. Methods We made an inventory of conceivable health impacts of climate change, explored the type and level of uncertainty for each impact, and discussed its implications for adaptation policy. A questionnaire-based expert elicitation was performed using an ordinal scoring scale. Experts were asked to indicate the level of precision with which health risks can be estimated, given the present state of knowledge. We assessed the individual scores, the expertise-weighted descriptive statistics, and the argumentation given for each score. Suggestions were made for how dealing with uncertainties could be taken into account in climate change adaptation policy strategies. Results The results showed that the direction of change could be indicated for most anticipated health effects. For several potential effects, too little knowledge exists to indicate whether any impact will occur, or whether the impact will be positive or negative. For several effects, rough ‘order-of-magnitude’ estimates were considered possible. Factors limiting health impact quantification include: lack of data, multi-causality, unknown impacts considering a high-quality health system, complex cause-effect relations leading to multi-directional impacts, possible changes of present-day response-relations, and difficulties in predicting local climate impacts. Participants considered heat-related mortality and non-endemic vector-borne diseases particularly relevant for climate change adaptation. Conclusions For possible climate related health impacts characterised by ignorance, adaptation policies that focus on enhancing the health system’s and society’s capability of dealing with possible future changes, uncertainties and surprises (e.g. through resilience, flexibility, and adaptive capacity) are

  2. A balance of bottom-up and top-down in linking climate policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Jessica F.; Sterner, Thomas; Wagner, Gernot

    2014-12-01

    Top-down climate negotiations embodied by the Kyoto Protocol have all but stalled, chiefly because of disagreements over targets and objections to financial transfers. To avoid those problems, many have shifted their focus to linkage of bottom-up climate policies such as regional carbon markets. This approach is appealing, but we identify four obstacles to successful linkage: different levels of ambition; competing domestic policy objectives; objections to financial transfers; and the difficulty of close regulatory coordination. Even with a more decentralized approach, overcoming the 'global warming gridlock' of the intergovernmental negotiations will require close international coordination. We demonstrate how a balance of bottom-up and top-down elements can create a path toward an effective global climate architecture.

  3. Global climate change policy issues related to the movement of industry from developed to rapidly industrializing countries

    SciTech Connect

    Lesperance, A.M.; Waltemath, L.A.

    1990-10-01

    Global climate change policies adopted by developed countries may encourage industries to move to countries with less restrictive policies. The purpose of this study is to identify policy-driven issues that may result in such a movement. This report (1) summarizes the conclusions of previous studies that have explored the relationship between environmental regulations and industrial movement, (2) identifies and summarizes existing and proposed US global climate change policy options, and (3) discusses issues and topics relating to possible industrial relocation because of the global climate change policy options. It concludes with recommendations for further research. Although federal global climate change policy options are the primary focus of this report, some international and regional efforts addressing this issue are also included. A potential regional industrial migration issue is highlighted. 14 refs., 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  4. Policy Goals of European Integration and Competitiveness in Academic Collaborations: An Examination of Joint Master's and Erasmus Mundus Programmes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Papatsiba, Vassiliki

    2014-01-01

    This study examines policy goals pertaining to joint Master's in Europe as presented in Bologna-related and Erasmus Mundus (EM) policy texts. The profile of joint programmes has risen in the aftermath of the Bologna Process (BP), together with the launch of the EU EM. Despite a European policy tradition of cooperation in higher education…

  5. A mixed-methods study of the implementation of medication adherence policy solutions: how do European countries compare?

    PubMed Central

    Clyne, Wendy; McLachlan, Sarah

    2015-01-01

    Objectives We describe a key informant study that invited national medicines policy leads for the European Union member states to self-assess the level of implementation of medicines adherence initiatives in their country and the adequacy of that implementation. Interviews with medicines policy leads enabled in-depth understanding of the variation in adherence support across nations and the ways in which different nations prioritize, plan, and implement medicines adherence systems and services. Methods Ten national policy leads (Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, and the Netherlands) completed a self-assessment survey, and seven (Estonia, Finland, Germany, Ireland, Lithuania, Malta, and the Netherlands) engaged in a follow-up interview. Key findings Policy leads varied in the level of implementation of medication adherence solutions that they reported in their nations; most initiatives were aimed directly at patients with few initiatives at government or health care commissioner levels of action. Policy leads reported insufficient implementation of medication adherence initiatives across all potential domains. Barriers to implementation included lack of resources, strategic planning, evidence to support action, the “hidden” nature of medication adherence within policy work, and dispersed responsibility for medication adherence as a policy and practice theme. Conclusion This study has international significance and summarizes the emergent characteristics of nations with and without coordinated medication adherence activity. We highlight the importance of sharing good practice in policy formulation and implementation for medication adherence. PMID:26604703

  6. The policy of school autonomy and the reform of educational administration Hungarian changes in an East European perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Halász, Gábor

    1993-11-01

    The paper presents the background, the main elements and the contradictions of the reform of educational administration in Hungary in the late '80s in a Central and East European perspective. It also tries to provide an analysis of the challenges that have emerged with the political changes of the '90s. The introductory part of the paper analyses the differences between policies of decentralization in Eastern and Western Europe. In the second part, the most important changes introduced by the 1985 Hungarian Education Act are summarized, and the policy background of these changes is presented. It is assumed that the policy behind the decentralization measures had a negative character: it intended more to abolish the existing structures of control than to establish new ones. In the final part of the paper those factors are presented which may play a role in the future for or against the policy of decentralization.

  7. Representing ozone extremes in European megacities: the importance of resolution in a global chemistry climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Pyle, J. A.

    2014-04-01

    The continuing growth of the world's urban population has led to an increasing number of cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The higher emissions of pollutants, coupled to higher population density, makes predictions of air quality in these megacities of particular importance from both a science and a policy perspective. Global climate models are typically run at coarse resolution to enable both the efficient running of long time integrations, and the ability to run multiple future climate scenarios. However, when considering surface ozone concentrations at the local scale, coarse resolution can lead to inaccuracies arising from the highly nonlinear ozone chemistry and the sensitivity of ozone to the distribution of its precursors on smaller scales. In this study, we use UM-UKCA, a global atmospheric chemistry model, coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model, to investigate the impact of model resolution on tropospheric ozone, ranging from global to local scales. We focus on the model's ability to represent the probability of high ozone concentrations in the summer and low ozone concentrations, associated with polluted megacity environments, in the winter, and how this varies with horizontal resolution. We perform time-slice integrations with two model configurations at typical climate resolution (CR, ~150 km) and at a higher resolution (HR, ~40 km). The CR configuration leads to overestimation of ozone concentrations on both regional and local scales, while it gives broadly similar results to the HR configuration on the global scale. The HR configuration is found to produce a more realistic diurnal cycle of ozone concentrations and to give a better representation of the probability density function of ozone values in urban areas such as the megacities of London and Paris. We find the observed differences in model behaviour between CR and HR configurations to be largely caused by chemical differences during the winter and meteorological differences

  8. Representing ozone extremes in European megacities: the importance of resolution in a global chemistry climate model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, Z. S.; Russo, M. R.; Pyle, J. A.

    2013-10-01

    The continuing growth of the world's urban population has led to an increasing number of cities with more than 10 million inhabitants. The higher emissions of pollutants, coupled to higher population density, makes predictions of air quality in these megacities of particular importance from both a science and a policy perspective. Global climate models are typically run at coarse resolution to enable both the efficient running of long time integrations, and the ability to run multiple future climate scenarios. However, when considering surface ozone concentrations at the local scale, coarse resolution can lead to inaccuracies arising from the highly non-linear ozone chemistry and the sensitivity of ozone to the distribution of its precursors on smaller scales. In this study, we use UM-UKCA, a global atmospheric chemistry model, coupled to the UK Met Office Unified Model, to investigate the impact of model resolution on tropospheric ozone, ranging from global to local scales. We focus on the model's ability to represent the probability of high ozone concentrations in the summer and low ozone concentrations, associated with polluted megacity environments, in the winter, and how this varies with horizontal resolution. We perform time-slice integrations with two model configurations at typical climate resolution (CR, ~150 km) and at a higher resolution (HR, ~40 km). The CR configuration leads to overestimation of ozone concentrations on both regional and local scales, while it gives broadly similar results to the HR configuration on the global scale. The HR configuration is found to produce a more realistic diurnal cycle of ozone concentrations and to give a better representation of the probability density function of ozone values in urban areas such as the megacities of London and Paris. We discuss the possible causes for the observed difference in model behaviour between CR and HR configurations and estimate the relative contribution of chemical and meteorological

  9. Who's getting the job done? An interview with Alden Meyer on the slow pace of climate change policy.

    PubMed

    Ames, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    New Solutions interviewed Alden Meyer, the director of strategy & policy for the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). His work focuses primarily on climate change policy at the state, federal and international levels. He discusses the current state of climate change policy, progress and innovation on the state and international fronts, and the tangible impacts we can make as citizens to hasten political action. PMID:23380258

  10. A bioeconomy to fight climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Renssen, Sonja

    2014-11-01

    The use of biomass for energy generation is helping European Union countries meet their renewable energy and emissions targets, but demand from other sectors means policy needs to be developed for maximum climate benefits, reports Sonja van Renssen.

  11. Space and the complexity of European rules and policies: The common projects Galileo and GMES—precedence for a new European legal approach?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Froehlich, Annette

    2010-04-01

    The two European flagship space projects, Galileo and GMES, clearly show that the current existing legal rules of the two organisations involved (European Union and European Space Agency) are not compatible. Moreover, it is quite impossible to implement a common project if every single organisation insists on the application of its own rules strictu sensu. Nevertheless, due to the political desire to advance these projects rapidly and to make them a success, legal obstacles were to be overcome. Consequently, recently concluded agreements between ESA and the EU-Commission concerning the financial and governmental matters of the Galileo and GMES implementation feature a new approach to cooperation between these two organisations. However, the question remains if they can be taken as precedence for a future institutionalised cooperation? It follows that the agreements have to be analysed in order to understand how a mutually acceptable agreement was reached despite the disparity in the rules of both organisations. In this regard, especially the financial decision agreement concerning Galileo in December 2007 shows a very interesting and unique way in applying EU-competition law. In the same way, the GMES-Delegation Agreement of spring 2008 is a good example of how two different legal systems can be applied to make a project success. Additionally, the reasons and arguments of both organisations have to be considered, especially once the Treaty of Lisbon will be in force. As these two main projects of the European Space Policy are characterized by the desire for a successful European cooperation, they can be regarded as an important step forward for a new legal approach. A new system emerges which could be taken into consideration for further common projects undertaken by ESA and the EU.

  12. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin — Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy

    PubMed Central

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S.

    2015-01-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  13. Impacts of Climate Change on Vector Borne Diseases in the Mediterranean Basin - Implications for Preparedness and Adaptation Policy.

    PubMed

    Negev, Maya; Paz, Shlomit; Clermont, Alexandra; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Shalom, Uri; Yeger, Tamar; Green, Manfred S

    2015-06-01

    The Mediterranean region is vulnerable to climatic changes. A warming trend exists in the basin with changes in rainfall patterns. It is expected that vector-borne diseases (VBD) in the region will be influenced by climate change since weather conditions influence their emergence. For some diseases (i.e., West Nile virus) the linkage between emergence andclimate change was recently proved; for others (such as dengue) the risk for local transmission is real. Consequently, adaptation and preparation for changing patterns of VBD distribution is crucial in the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed six representative Mediterranean countries and found that they have started to prepare for this threat, but the preparation levels among them differ, and policy mechanisms are limited and basic. Furthermore, cross-border cooperation is not stable and depends on international frameworks. The Mediterranean countries should improve their adaptation plans, and develop more cross-sectoral, multidisciplinary and participatory approaches. In addition, based on experience from existing local networks in advancing national legislation and trans-border cooperation, we outline recommendations for a regional cooperation framework. We suggest that a stable and neutral framework is required, and that it should address the characteristics and needs of African, Asian and European countries around the Mediterranean in order to ensure participation. Such a regional framework is essential to reduce the risk of VBD transmission, since the vectors of infectious diseases know no political borders. PMID:26084000

  14. Immigrant Integration policies and perceived Group Threat: A Multilevel Study of 27 Western and Eastern European Countries.

    PubMed

    Schlueter, Elmar; Meuleman, Bart; Davidov, Eldad

    2013-05-01

    Although immigrant integration policies have long been hypothesized to be associated with majority members' anti-immigrant sentiments, systematic empirical research exploring this relationship is largely absent. To address this gap in the literature, the present research takes a cross-national perspective. Drawing from theory and research on group conflict and intergroup norms, we conduct two studies to examine whether preexisting integration policies that are more permissive promote or impede majority group members' subsequent negative attitudes regarding immigrants. For several Western and Eastern European countries, we link country-level information on immigrant integration policies from 2006 with individual-level survey data from the Eurobarometer 71.3 collected in 2009 (Study 1) and from the fourth wave of the European Value Study collected between 2008 and 2009 (Study 2). For both studies, the results from multilevel regression models demonstrate that immigrant integration policies that are more permissive are associated with decreased perceptions of group threat from immigrants. These findings suggest that immigrant integration policies are of key importance in improving majority members' attitudes regarding immigrants, which is widely considered desirable in modern immigrant-receiving societies. PMID:23521987

  15. Similar and Yet So Different: Cash-for-Care in Six European Countries’ Long-Term Care Policies

    PubMed Central

    Da Roit, Barbara; Le Bihan, Blanche

    2010-01-01

    Context: In response to increasing care needs, the reform or development of long-term care (LTC) systems has become a prominent policy issue in all European countries. Cash-for-care schemes—allowances instead of services provided to dependents—represent a key policy aimed at ensuring choice, fostering family care, developing care markets, and containing costs. Methods: A detailed analysis of policy documents and regulations, together with a systematic review of existing studies, was used to investigate the differences among six European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Sweden). The rationale and evolution of their various cash-for-care schemes within the framework of their LTC systems also were explored. Findings: While most of the literature present cash-for-care schemes as a common trend in the reforms that began in the 1990s and often treat them separately from the overarching LTC policies, this article argues that the policy context, timing, and specific regulation of the new schemes have created different visions of care and care work that in turn have given rise to distinct LTC configurations. Conclusions: A new typology of long-term care configurations is proposed based on the inclusiveness of the system, the role of cash-for-care schemes and their specific regulations, as well as the views of informal care and the care work that they require. PMID:20860573

  16. Implications of potentially lower climate sensitivity on climate projections and policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogelj, Joeri; Meinshausen, Malte; Sedláček, Jan; Knutti, Reto

    2014-03-01

    Climate sensitivity, the long-term temperature response to CO2, has been notoriously difficult to constrain until today. Estimates based on the observed warming trends favor lower values, while the skill with which comprehensive climate models are able to simulate present day climate implies higher values to be more plausible. We find that much lower values would postpone crossing the 2 °C temperature threshold by about a decade for emissions near current levels, or alternatively would imply that limiting warming to below 1.5 °C would require about the same emission reductions as are now assumed for 2 °C. It is just as plausible, however, for climate sensitivity to be at the upper end of the consensus range. To stabilize global-mean temperature at levels of 2 °C or lower, strong reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in order to stay within the allowed carbon budget seem therefore unavoidable over the 21st century. Early reductions and the required phase-out of unabated fossil fuel emissions would be an important societal challenge. However, erring on the side of caution reduces the risk that future generations will face either the need for even larger emission reductions or very high climate change impacts.

  17. The interaction of climate observation, parameter estimation, and mitigation decisions: Modeling climate policy under uncertainty with a partially observable Markov decision process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fertig, E.; Webster, M.

    2013-12-01

    Though climate sensitivity remains poorly constrained, the trajectory of future greenhouse gas emissions and observable climate data could lead to improved estimates. Updated parameter estimates could alter decisions on greenhouse mitigation policy, which in turn influences future observed climate data and parameter estimation. Previous research on global climate mitigation policy neglects the cyclic nature of climate observation, parameter estimation, and policy action, instead treating uncertainty in climate sensitivity with scenario analysis or assuming that it will be resolved completely at some point in the future. This paper advances quantitative analysis of decision making under uncertainty (DMUU) in climate sensitivity by modeling the observation/parameter estimation/policy action cycle as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). In a POMDP framework, an objective function is maximized while both observable parameters and probability distributions over unobservable parameters are retained as system states. As time progresses and more data are collected, the probability distributions are updated with Bayesian analysis. To model anthropogenic climate change as a POMDP, we maximize social welfare using a modified DICE model. Climate sensitivity is never directly observable; instead it is modeled with a distribution that is subject to Bayesian updating after observation of stochastic changes in global mean temperature. The maximization problem is posed as a stochastic Bellman equation, which expresses total social welfare as the sum of immediate social welfare resulting from a current mitigation decision under current knowledge of climate sensitivity and the expected cost-to-go, which is the discounted future social welfare in the subsequent time interval as a function of both global mean temperature and the consequent probability distribution over climate sensitivity. While similar, smaller stochastic dynamic programming problems can be solved

  18. Sensitivity of Multi-gas Climate Policy to Emission Metrics

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Steven J.; Karas, Joseph F.; Edmonds, James A.; Eom, Jiyong; Mizrahi, Andrew H.

    2013-04-01

    Multi-gas greenhouse emission targets require that different emissions be combined into an aggregate total. The Global Warming Potential (GWP) index is currently used for this purpose, despite various criticisms of the underlying concept. It is not possible to uniquely define a single metric that perfectly captures the different impacts of emissions of substances with widely disparate atmospheric lifetimes, which leads to a wide range of possible index values. We examine the sensitivity of emissions and climate outcomes to the value of the index used to aggregate methane emissions using a technologically detailed integrated assessment model. We find that the sensitivity to index value is of order 4-14% in terms of methane emissions and 2% in terms of total radiative forcing, using index values between 4 and 70 for methane, with larger regional differences in some cases. The sensitivity to index value is much higher in economic terms, with total 2-gas mitigation cost decreasing 4-5% for a lower index and increasing 10-13% for a larger index, with even larger changes if the emissions reduction targets are small. The sensitivity to index value also depends on the assumed maximum amount of mitigation available in each sector. Evaluation of the maximum mitigation potential for major sources of non-CO2 greenhouse gases would greatly aid analysis

  19. Review of Progress in Vocational Education and Training Reform of the Candidate Countries for Accession to the European Union in the Light of Developments in European Policy on Vocational Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    European Training Foundation, Turin (Italy).

    This document reviews progress in vocational education and training (VET) reform in the candidate countries for accession to the European Union in light of developments in European policy on vocational training. The document consists of a cross-country overview and individual overviews of VET in 12 candidate countries: Bulgaria, the Czech…

  20. New modes of regulation for health and safety: post-enlargement policy perspectives for the European Union.

    PubMed

    Woolfson, Charles

    2006-01-01

    The recent joining of ten new member states to the European Union, eight of which are former communist countries, has reopened inherent tensions in current European Union (EU) policy-making on safety and health in the workplace. These spring from seemingly incompatible objectives; the need to ensure broad EU member state compliance with regulation, around agreed minimum standards through active regulatory enforcement, and the promotion of "softer" voluntary initiatives in the management of workplace risks and hazards in order to create "a culture of prevention." The present EU strategy which ends in 2006, seeks to secure a balance between both sets of objectives. However, with respect to the post-communist new member states of Central and Eastern Europe, the appropriateness of the current strategy is doubtful. This article therefore focuses on the implications of the expansion of the European Union in May 2004 in the context of the elaboration of the new "soft law" modes of regulatory governance at the EU level. In turn, this provokes the question: will the "new" European policy for occupational health and safety from 2007 onwards, be "new," or simply more of the same? If the latter, it is suggested that the future for working environment standards in Europe as a whole may be significantly compromised. PMID:16943136

  1. European public health policies for managing contacts of invasive meningococcal disease cases better harmonised in 2013 than in 2007.

    PubMed

    Vygen, Sabine; Hellenbrand, Wiebke; Stefanoff, Pawel; Hanquet, Germaine; Heuberger, Sigrid; Stuart, James

    2016-01-01

    In 2007, a European survey identified variation in country policies on public health management of invasive meningococcal disease (IMD). In 2009-10, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) published evidence-based guidance on IMD. We therefore surveyed again European countries to describe policies for managing IMD cases and contacts in 2013. We asked national IMD public health experts from 32 European countries to complete a questionnaire focusing on post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) for IMD contacts and meningococcal vaccination. Proportions in 2007 and 2013 were compared using the chi-squared test. All 32 countries responded, with responses from two regions for Belgium and Italy; half stated having used ECDC guidance to update national recommendations. PEP was recommended to close contacts in 33 of 34 countries/regions, mainly ciprofloxacin for adults (29/32 countries) and rifampicin for children (29/32 countries). ECDC guidance for managing IMD contacts in airplanes was strictly followed by five countries/regions. Twenty-three countries/regions participated in both surveys. Compared with 2007, in 2013, more countries/regions recommended i) ceftriaxone for children (15/23 vs 6/20; p = 0.03), ii) PEP for all children in the same preschool group (8/23 vs 17/23; p = 0.02). More countries/regions recommended evidence-based measures for IMD public health management in 2013 than 2007. However, some discrepancies remain and they call for further harmonisation. PMID:26875517

  2. Time for a reality check on global climate change policies

    SciTech Connect

    O`Keefe, W.F.

    1995-12-31

    Right now no one knows enough about global warming to advocate with certainty the kinds of actions that could jeopardize our economic well being -- and the economic aspirations of developing countries. That doesn`t mean no action, which is usually described perjoratively and erroneously as business as usual. It does mean actions must be based on facts, not misperceptions and myths. It does mean a mindset that reexamines, rethinks and changes course based on new knowledge. In short, I am advocating a reality check on the process based on the political, scientific and economic realities. Each of these realities has an important role in determining how we respond to the global warming threat. Our goal should be to identify actions that do the least damage to material well-being and that preserve the path to a better way of life, especially for the developing nations. What we have instead is a process driven by political gamesmanship that will devolve into beggar the neighbor policies reminiscent of 18th century mercantilism.

  3. Policies for accelerating access to clean energy, improving health, advancing development, and mitigating climate change.

    PubMed

    Haines, Andy; Smith, Kirk R; Anderson, Dennis; Epstein, Paul R; McMichael, Anthony J; Roberts, Ian; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodcock, James; Woods, Jeremy

    2007-10-01

    The absence of reliable access to clean energy and the services it provides imposes a large disease burden on low-income populations and impedes prospects for development. Furthermore, current patterns of fossil-fuel use cause substantial ill-health from air pollution and occupational hazards. Impending climate change, mainly driven by energy use, now also threatens health. Policies to promote access to non-polluting and sustainable sources of energy have great potential both to improve public health and to mitigate (prevent) climate disruption. There are several technological options, policy levers, and economic instruments for sectors such as power generation, transport, agriculture, and the built environment. However, barriers to change include vested interests, political inertia, inability to take meaningful action, profound global inequalities, weak technology-transfer mechanisms, and knowledge gaps that must be addressed to transform global markets. The need for policies that prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate while addressing the energy needs of disadvantaged people is a central challenge of the current era. A comprehensive programme for clean energy should optimise mitigation and, simultaneously, adaption to climate change while maximising co-benefits for health--eg, through improved air, water, and food quality. Intersectoral research and concerted action, both nationally and internationally, will be required. PMID:17868819

  4. An Assessment of Reservoir Filling Policies under a Changing Climate for Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, A.; Block, P. J.

    2012-12-01

    Climate variability and change cause unsteady hydrologic response, commonly experienced through varying river flows. These variations affect the performance and reliability of water resources dependent systems, including domestic, agriculture, energy, and the environment, with economic implications. Long-term design and operation of these systems is therefore inherently uncertain, producing copious risks at time-scales of months to decades. Yet evaluation of system performance under non-stationary climate conditions is typically ignored. Here we demonstrate the potential performance of Ethiopia's forthcoming Grand Renaissance hydropower dam on the Blue Nile River, subject to coincident climate change and reservoir filling policies. Presently, no agreed-upon reservoir retention policy exists between Ethiopia and downstream countries, even though construction has already begun. We will present a tool designed to allow users to select expected future climate conditions and reservoir filling rates, from a stochastic perspective. Additionally, the maximum reservoir volume may also be varied. Major outputs include hydropower generation and downstream flow for use by policy-makers. Ethiopia's desire to rapidly expand hydropower dams on the Nile constitutes an enormous financial investment and latent risk, with further implications on streamflow reduction to Sudan and Egypt, and a need for multi-national energy contracts, necessitating proper advanced planning.

  5. Developing local climate services to support climate adaptation policies for Greek region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsanis, Ioannis; Grillakis, Manolis; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Jacob, Daniela

    2013-04-01

    The main aim of the Eclise EU FP6 project is to improve the delivery of climate services. The realization of climate service to Greek stakeholders is attempted in several sectors of interest within the project framework. High interest was raised for climate information related to solar energy, extremes of precipitation and temperature and information related to water resources. Technical University of Crete, partner of the ECLISE project has the role of delivering this information to relevant end users in the form of report and datasets with appropriate spatiotemporal resolution, as well as communication of the embedded uncertainties. Currently, simulations from 10 RCMs in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario at a spatial resolution of 25km and data from 3 GCMs in the frame of WATCH FP6 for A2 and B1 emission scenarios interpolated at a spatial resolution of 0.5o were used for the analysis. Additionally, RCM runs of RCA model at various spatial resolutions (50, 25, 12.5 and 6km) were provided from SMHI in order to study the effect of model scale on the ability to simulate the present climate. The analysis of the climate simulations will assist in the long-term strategic water resources planning and climate hazard mitigation. Regarding solar energy information, historical and projected radiation data from 11 RCMs in the frame of ENSEMBLES FP6 under A1B emission scenario at a spatial resolution of 25km were downloaded for comparison with local measurements. The produced information will assist the future solar energy investments planning and security.

  6. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  7. Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

    PubMed

    Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

    2013-01-01

    Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

  8. Balance between climate change mitigation benefits and land use impacts of bioenergy: conservation implications for European birds

    PubMed Central

    Meller, Laura; Thuiller, Wilfried; Pironon, Samuel; Barbet-Massin, Morgane; Hof, Andries; Cabeza, Mar

    2015-01-01

    Both climate change and habitat modification exert serious pressure on biodiversity. Although climate change mitigation has been identified as an important strategy for biodiversity conservation, bioenergy remains a controversial mitigation action due to its potential negative ecological and socio-economic impacts which arise through habitat modification by land-use change. While the debate continues, the separate or simultaneous impacts of both climate change and bioenergy on biodiversity have not yet been compared. We assess projected range shifts of 156 European bird species by 2050 under two alternative climate change trajectories: a baseline scenario, where the global mean temperature increases by 4°C by the end of the century, and a 2 degrees scenario, where global concerted effort limits the temperature increase to below 2°C. For the latter scenario, we also quantify the pressure exerted by increased cultivation of energy biomass as modelled by IMAGE2.4, an integrated land-use model. The global bioenergy use in this scenario is in the lower end of the range of previously estimated sustainable potential. Under the assumptions of these scenarios, we find that the magnitude of range shifts due to climate change is far greater than the impact of land conversion to woody bioenergy plantations within the European Union, and that mitigation of climate change reduces the exposure experienced by species. However, we identified potential for local conservation conflict between priority areas for conservation and bioenergy production. These conflicts must be addressed by strict bioenergy sustainability criteria that acknowledge biodiversity conservation needs beyond existing protected areas and apply also to biomass imported from outside the European Union. PMID:26681982

  9. Metro East Coast Regional Assessment of Climate Variability and Change: Policy Lessons and Responses

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenzweig, C.

    2002-05-01

    The recent Metro East Coast (MEC) Regional Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change provides a laboratory for raising questions regarding policy-relevant versus policy-driven research. A regional component of the U.S. National Assessment sponsored by the U.S. Global Change Research Program, the MEC Assessment engaged area researchers and stakeholders from a spectrum of agencies at differing levels of jurisdiction in seven sector teams. The stakeholders participated actively in the assessment process, i.e., they were involved in shaping research questions, providing data and models, and drawing major conclusions. Stakeholders participating in the assessment had specific science-based information needs, as well as policy-based considerations. Conflicts arose, at times, as policy considerations mutated over time within the agencies. Continuity of funding emerged as a major issue regarding effectiveness of researcher-stakeholder engagement.

  10. Understanding the climate science policy nexus: Lessons from modeling climate impacts to temperature control regimes on Lake Shasta, CA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kauneckis, D. L.; Saito, L.; Sapin, J. R.; Rajagopalan, B.; Hanna, R. B.

    2014-12-01

    Investigators in the natural sciences have long been frustrated by the slow diffusion of increasing knowledge about the potential impacts of climate change into policy and decision making about the management of those system most likely to be affected. This presentation uses information based on the case study of a recent project that worked closely with water managers to incorporate stochastic climate conditions into two-dimensional hydrodynamic model (CE-QUAL-W2) in order to examine the downstream impacts of reservoir operations at Shasta Lake in northern California. The inclusion of reservoir operational rules was incorporated into the coupled model in order to better represent the operating conditions under which management decisions are made. Shasta Dam utilizes a unique temperature control device (TCD) that allows water releases from multiple levels of the reservoir in order to control downstream temperatures and meet management guidelines for Chinook salmon. The case study illustrates how three characteristics of a decision system influence the use of climate science: (i) the built structural components of ecosystem service delivery, (ii) institutional rule structures that include regulatory systems, operational rules, and informal decision criteria, (iii) decision systems used to manage competing demands on a natural resource. Additional cases are used to develop a general framework for understanding under what conditions climate science can provide information useful to decision makers.

  11. Extreme Heat Wave over European Russia in Summer 2010: Anomaly or a Manifestation of Climatic Trend?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Razuvaev, V.; Groisman, P. Y.; Bulygina, O.; Borzenkova, I.

    2010-12-01

    Extraordinary temperature anomalies over European Russia (ER) in summer 2010 raised a legitimate question in the title of this presentation. A 60-days-long hot anticyclonic weather system with daily temperature anomalies as high as +10K and no or negligible amount of rainfall first decimated crops in the forest-steppe zone of ER, gradually dried wetlands in the forest zone and, finally, caused numerous natural and anthropogenic fires that at the time of this abstract preparation have not yet been extinguished. The extreme heat, lack of precipitation, and forest fires have caused hundreds of deaths and multimillion dollars in property losses. Indirect losses of lives due to this weather anomaly, with the ensuing fires and related air pollution, as well as the absence of air conditioning in apartments has yet to be estimated. The center of European Russia was well covered by meteorological observations for the past 130 years. These data, historical weather records (yearbooks or "letopisi" , which were carried on in the major Russian monasteries), and finally, dendroclimatological information, all show that this summer temperature anomaly was well above all known extremes in the past 1000 years. Like ocean waves and ocean tides, weather and climate variability go together strengthening (or mitigating) each other. We shall show the precursors of the current outbreak using principally the most accurate meteorological records of the past century updated to 2009 (at the Session, the 2010 data will also be presented). While a careful analyses of these records and thoughtful analyses of recent similar temperature outbreaks in Western Europe could not prevent the occurrence of this disaster, the lessons learned from these analyses (a) would warn about its increasing probability and (b) mitigation and adaptation measures could well be made to reduce its negative consequences. Among our arguments are: (1)There is a century-long tendency of reduction of equator minus pole

  12. Climate adaptation heuristics and the science/policy divide

    SciTech Connect

    Preston, Benjamin L.; Mustelin, Johanna; Maloney, Megan C.

    2013-09-05

    The adaptation science enterprise has expanded rapidly in recent years, presumably in response to growth in demand for knowledge that can facilitate adaptation policy and practice. However, evidence suggests such investments in adaptation science have not necessarily translated into adaptation implementation. One potential constraint on adaptation may be the underlying heuristics that are used as the foundation for both adaptation research and practice. In this paper, we explore the adaptation academic literature with the objective of identifying adaptation heuristics, assessing the extent to which they have become entrenched within the adaptation discourse, and discussing potential weaknesses in their framing that could undermine adaptation efforts. This investigation is supported by a multi-method analysis that includes both a quantitative content analysis of the adaptation literature that evidences the use of adaptation heuristics and a qualitative analysis of the implications of such heuristics for enhancing or hindering the implementation of adaptation. Results demonstrate that a number of heuristic devices are commonly used in both the peer-reviewed adaptation literature as well as within grey literature designed to inform adaptation practitioners. Furthermore, the apparent lack of critical reflection upon the robustness of these heuristics for diverse contexts may contribute to potential cognitive bias with respect to the framing of adaptation by both researchers and practitioners. Finally, we discuss this phenomenon by drawing upon heuristic-analytic theory, which has explanatory utility in understanding both the origins of such heuristics as well as the measures that can be pursued toward the co-generation of more robust approaches to adaptation problem-solving.

  13. Climate adaptation heuristics and the science/policy divide

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Preston, Benjamin L.; Mustelin, Johanna; Maloney, Megan C.

    2013-09-05

    The adaptation science enterprise has expanded rapidly in recent years, presumably in response to growth in demand for knowledge that can facilitate adaptation policy and practice. However, evidence suggests such investments in adaptation science have not necessarily translated into adaptation implementation. One potential constraint on adaptation may be the underlying heuristics that are used as the foundation for both adaptation research and practice. In this paper, we explore the adaptation academic literature with the objective of identifying adaptation heuristics, assessing the extent to which they have become entrenched within the adaptation discourse, and discussing potential weaknesses in their framing thatmore » could undermine adaptation efforts. This investigation is supported by a multi-method analysis that includes both a quantitative content analysis of the adaptation literature that evidences the use of adaptation heuristics and a qualitative analysis of the implications of such heuristics for enhancing or hindering the implementation of adaptation. Results demonstrate that a number of heuristic devices are commonly used in both the peer-reviewed adaptation literature as well as within grey literature designed to inform adaptation practitioners. Furthermore, the apparent lack of critical reflection upon the robustness of these heuristics for diverse contexts may contribute to potential cognitive bias with respect to the framing of adaptation by both researchers and practitioners. Finally, we discuss this phenomenon by drawing upon heuristic-analytic theory, which has explanatory utility in understanding both the origins of such heuristics as well as the measures that can be pursued toward the co-generation of more robust approaches to adaptation problem-solving.« less

  14. Role of motor vehicle lifetime extension in climate change policy.

    PubMed

    Kagawa, Shigemi; Nansai, Keisuke; Kondo, Yasushi; Hubacek, Klaus; Suh, Sangwon; Minx, Jan; Kudoh, Yuki; Tasaki, Tomohiro; Nakamura, Shinichiro

    2011-02-15

    Vehicle replacement schemes such as the "cash for clunkers" program in the U.S. and the "scrappage scheme" in the UK have featured prominently in the economic stimulation packages initiated by many governments to cope with the global economic crisis. While these schemes were designed as economic instruments to support the vehicle production industry, governments have also claimed that these programs have environmental benefits such as reducing CO2 emissions by bringing more fuel-efficient vehicles onto the roads. However, little evidence is available to support this claim as current energy and environmental accounting models are inadequate for comprehensively capturing the economic and environmental trade-offs associated with changes in product life and product use. We therefore developed a new dynamic model to quantify the carbon emissions due to changes in product life and consumer behavior related to product use. Based on a case study of Japanese vehicle use during the 1990-2000 period, we found that extending, not shortening, the lifetime of a vehicle helps to reduce life-cycle CO2 emissions throughout the supply chain. Empirical results also revealed that even if the fuel economy of less fuel-efficient ordinary passenger vehicles were improved to levels comparable with those of the best available technology, i.e. hybrid passenger cars currently being produced in Japan, total CO2 emissions would decrease by only 0.2%. On the other hand, we also find that extending the lifetime of a vehicle contributed to a moderate increase in emissions of health-relevant air pollutants (NOx, HC, and CO) during the use phase. From the results, this study concludes that the effects of global warming and air pollution can be somewhat moderated and that these problems can be addressed through specific policy instruments directed at increasing the market for hybrid cars as well as extending lifetime of automobiles, which is contrary to the current wisdom. PMID:21265568

  15. The Policy-Science Interface for Land Management in a Changing Climate -- Closing the Gap Between Scientists, Natural Resource Managers and Policy Makers. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Daley-Laursen, S. B.

    2013-12-01

    Climate change and related perturbations present significant challenges and opportunities for effective communications among natural resource managers, scientists and policy makers. Communication is important because of the potential dire and sometimes irreversible impacts of climate change, but challenges abound because of the lack of perceived immediacy and direct impact upon the public and land managers. The USGS national network of eight Climate Science Centers endeavors to increase communications among scientists, managers and policy makers through processes of consultation during the establishment of a science agenda and science prioritization based on inputs from a broad array of stakeholders. A Climate Science Boot Camp also fosters open dialogue and working relationships between early career climate scientists and an array of practicing natural resource managers. Professor of Natural Resources, former Dean of NR and University President Interim, PI Northwest Climate Science Center, Director Northwest Knowledge Network, Federal Relations Officer

  16. A multi-metric global source-receptor model for integrated impact assessment of climate and air quality policy scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Dingenen, Rita; Leitao, Joana; Dentener, Frank

    2014-05-01

    As a response to emerging needs for swift and integrated evaluation of air quality and climate policy scenarios at the regional and global scale, the European Commission Joint Research Centre has developed the 'Fast Scenario Screening Tool TM5-FASST'. TM5-FASST is a global simplified source-receptor model, calculating various air quality and climate impacts resulting from emissions of short-lived air pollutants and methane. TM5-FASST makes use of semi-linear relations expressing the sensitivity of pollutant concentrations in any receptor location of the globe to a change in pollutant emissions in any source region. The tool operates with 56 pre-defined source areas, defined as countries or country clusters. The source-receptor sensitivity matrices were calculated with the global chemical transport model TM5 by applying a 20% emission perturbation on year 2000 emissions for each of the 56 source regions, and for all relevant air pollutants. The model evaluates metrics relevant for health impacts (pollutant concentrations, premature mortalities from exposure to PM2.5 and O3), for vegetation and ecosystems (AOT40 and seasonal mean daytime O3, N and S deposition), as well as climate-relevant metrics of relevant short-lived climate pollutants (instantaneous forcing, AGWP and AGTP for various time horizons, black carbon deposition to snow surface). Climate metrics include short term impacts of O3 precursors (i.e. the direct formation of O3 as a greenhouse gas), as well as long-term effects on the oxidative capacity of the atmosphere with impacts on the methane lifetime and background O3. It is a strong feature of the model that all impacts, both air quality and climate related, are calculated from the same set of underlying pollutant concentration fields, and hence are internally consistent with respect to impact categories and with respect to geographical coverage. Here we will present in more detail the methodologies used in TM5-FASST, demonstrate its validity and

  17. Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate

    PubMed Central

    Chapin, F. Stuart; Lovecraft, Amy L.; Zavaleta, Erika S.; Nelson, Joanna; Robards, Martin D.; Kofinas, Gary P.; Trainor, Sarah F.; Peterson, Garry D.; Huntington, Henry P.; Naylor, Rosamond L.

    2006-01-01

    Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social–ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously. PMID:17008403

  18. Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany

    PubMed Central

    Uehleke, Reinhard

    2016-01-01

    The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats. PMID:27054192

  19. Data of a willingness to pay survey for national climate change mitigation policies in Germany.

    PubMed

    Uehleke, Reinhard

    2016-06-01

    The dataset includes responses from a contingent valuation study about the national climate change mitigation policies in Germany. The online survey was carried out in the spring of 2014. It assesses the willingness to pay for an increase of the national CO2 reduction target by 10 percentage points, which closely represents Germany׳s climate change mitigation strategy. Respondents were randomly allocated to one of the following three question formats: The dichotomous choice referendum, the dissonance minimizing referendum and the two-sided payment ladder. The data can be used to investigate the influence of alternative statistical approaches on the willingness to pay measures and their comparison across question formats. PMID:27054192

  20. Regional climate modeling on European scales: A joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, Sven; Keuler, Klaus; Bossing Christensen, Ole; Colette, Augustin; Déqué, Michel; Gobiet, Andreas; Goergen, Klaus; Jacob, Daniela; Lüthi, Daniel; van Meijgaard, Erik; Nikulin, Grigory; Schär, Christoph; Teichmann, Claas; Vautard, Robert; Warrach-Sagi, Kirsten; Wulfmeyer, Volker

    2014-05-01

    EURO-CORDEX is an international climate downscaling initiative that aims to provide high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe. Here an evaluation of the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble is presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatio-temporal patterns of the European climate for the period 1989-2008. Model evaluation focuses on near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and uses the E-OBS dataset as observational reference. The ensemble consists of 17 simulations carried out by seven different models at grid resolutions of 12 km (nine experiments) and 50 km (eight experiments). Several performance metrics computed from monthly and seasonal mean values are used to assess model performance over eight sub-domains of the European continent. Results are compared to those for the ERA40-driven ENSEMBLES simulations. The analysis confirms the ability of RCMs to capture the basic features of the European climate, including its variability in space and time. But it also identifies non-negligible deficiencies of the simulations for selected metrics, regions and seasons. Seasonally and regionally averaged temperature biases are mostly smaller than 1.5 °C, while precipitation biases are typically located in the +/- 40% range. Some bias characteristics, such as a predominant cold and wet bias in most seasons and over most parts of Europe and a warm and dry summer bias over southern and south-eastern Europe reflect common model biases. For seasonal mean quantities averaged over large European sub-domains, no clear benefit of an increased spatial resolution (12 km vs. 50 km) can be identified. The bias ranges of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble mostly correspond to those of the ENSEMBLES simulations, but some improvements in model performance can be identified (e.g., a less pronounced southern European warm summer bias). The temperature bias spread across different configurations of

  1. Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, S.; Keuler, K.; Christensen, O. B.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Gobiet, A.; Goergen, K.; Jacob, D.; Lüthi, D.; van Meijgaard, E.; Nikulin, G.; Schär, C.; Teichmann, C.; Vautard, R.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Wulfmeyer, V.

    2014-07-01

    EURO-CORDEX is an international climate downscaling initiative that aims to provide high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe. Here an evaluation of the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble is presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatiotemporal patterns of the European climate for the period 1989-2008. Model evaluation focuses on near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and uses the E-OBS data set as observational reference. The ensemble consists of 17 simulations carried out by seven different models at grid resolutions of 12 km (nine experiments) and 50 km (eight experiments). Several performance metrics computed from monthly and seasonal mean values are used to assess model performance over eight subdomains of the European continent. Results are compared to those for the ERA40-driven ENSEMBLES simulations. The analysis confirms the ability of RCMs to capture the basic features of the European climate, including its variability in space and time. But it also identifies nonnegligible deficiencies of the simulations for selected metrics, regions and seasons. Seasonally and regionally averaged temperature biases are mostly smaller than 1.5 °C, while precipitation biases are typically located in the ±40% range. Some bias characteristics, such as a predominant cold and wet bias in most seasons and over most parts of Europe and a warm and dry summer bias over southern and southeastern Europe reflect common model biases. For seasonal mean quantities averaged over large European subdomains, no clear benefit of an increased spatial resolution (12 vs. 50 km) can be identified. The bias ranges of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble mostly correspond to those of the ENSEMBLES simulations, but some improvements in model performance can be identified (e.g., a less pronounced southern European warm summer bias). The temperature bias spread across different configurations of one

  2. Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kotlarski, S.; Keuler, K.; Christensen, O. B.; Colette, A.; Déqué, M.; Gobiet, A.; Goergen, K.; Jacob, D.; Lüthi, D.; van Meijgaard, E.; Nikulin, G.; Schär, C.; Teichmann, C.; Vautard, R.; Warrach-Sagi, K.; Wulfmeyer, V.

    2014-01-01

    EURO-CORDEX is an international climate downscaling initiative that aims to provide high-resolution climate scenarios for Europe. Here an evaluation of the ERA-Interim-driven EURO-CORDEX regional climate model (RCM) ensemble is presented. The study documents the performance of the individual models in representing the basic spatio-temporal patterns of the European climate for the period 1989-2008. Model evaluation focuses on near-surface air temperature and precipitation, and uses the E-OBS dataset as observational reference. The ensemble consists of 17 simulations carried out by seven different models at grid resolutions of 12 km (nine experiments) and 50 km (eight experiments). Several performance metrics computed from monthly and seasonal mean values are used to assess model performance over eight sub-domains of the European continent. Results are compared to those for the ERA40-driven ENSEMBLES simulations. The analysis confirms the ability of RCMs to capture the basic features of the European climate, including its variability in space and time. But it also identifies non-negligible deficiencies of the simulations for selected metrics, regions and seasons. Seasonally and regionally averaged temperature biases are mostly smaller than 1.5 °C, while precipitation biases are typically located in the ±40% range. Some bias characteristics, such as a predominant cold and wet bias in most seasons and over most parts of Europe and a warm and dry summer bias over southern and south-eastern Europe reflect common model biases. For seasonal mean quantities averaged over large European sub-domains, no clear benefit of an increased spatial resolution (12 km vs. 50 km) can be identified. The bias ranges of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble mostly correspond to those of the ENSEMBLES simulations, but some improvements in model performance can be identified (e.g., a less pronounced southern European warm summer bias). The temperature bias spread across different configurations of one

  3. Effects of European land use on contemporary tree-climate relationships in the northeastern United States: Implications for predictive models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goring, S. J.; Cogbill, C. V.; Dawson, A.; Hooten, M.; McLachlan, J. S.; Mladenoff, D. J.; Paciorek, C. J.; Ruid, M.; Tipton, J.; Williams, J. W.; Record, S.; Matthes, J. H.; Dietze, M.

    2014-12-01

    Much of our understanding of the climatic controls on tree species distributions is based on contemporary observational datasets. For example, forest inventory analysis (FIA) and other spatial datasets are used to build correlative models of climate suitability for plant taxa for use in environmental niche models. More complex dynamic models rely on species interactions, physiological processes, and competition, among other processes, that are also parameterized against contemporary data. However, as much as a quarter of the forested region in the upper Midwestern United States may be considered novel relative to pre-settlement baselines (Goring et al. submitted). Hence, modern surveys or even long-term datasets may represent only a portion of the ecological or climate space taxa might occupy. Using gridded datasets of pre-settlement vegetation for the northeastern United States from Town Propritor Suveys and the Public Land Survey, we examine the effects of European land-use conversion - logging, agricultural conversion and re-establishment - on climate-vegetation relationships. We show that in regions where land-use change is climatically biased, such as conversion to agriculture along the prairie-forest boundary, impacts on the realized climatic niches for various tree taxa can be significant. Improving predicted distributions of taxa is critical for planning and mitigating the effects of widespread shifts in forest composition resulting from climate change. Using pre-settlement data can improve our understanding of the potential niches occupied by major forest taxa, improving the predictive abilities of environmental niche and mechanistic models.

  4. Population Trends of Central European Montane Birds Provide Evidence for Adverse Impacts of Climate Change on High-Altitude Species

    PubMed Central

    Flousek, Jiří; Telenský, Tomáš; Hanzelka, Jan; Reif, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    Climate change is among the most important global threats to biodiversity and mountain areas are supposed to be under especially high pressure. Although recent modelling studies suggest considerable future range contractions of montane species accompanied with increased extinction risk, data allowing to test actual population consequences of the observed climate changes and identifying traits associated to their adverse impacts are very scarce. To fill this knowledge gap, we estimated long-term population trends of montane birds from 1984 to 2011 in a central European mountain range, the Giant Mountains (Krkonoše), where significant warming occurred over this period. We then related the population trends to several species' traits related to the climate change effects. We found that the species breeding in various habitats at higher altitudes had more negative trends than species breeding at lower altitudes. We also found that the species moved upwards as a response to warming climate, and these altitudinal range shifts were associated with more positive population trends at lower altitudes than at higher altitudes. Moreover, long-distance migrants declined more than residents or species migrating for shorter distances. Taken together, these results indicate that the climate change, besides other possible environmental changes, already influences populations of montane birds with particularly adverse impacts on high-altitude species such as water pipit (Anthus spinoletta). It is evident that the alpine species, predicted to undergo serious climatically induced range contractions due to warming climate in the future, already started moving along this trajectory. PMID:26426901

  5. Space-time clustering analysis of wildfires: The influence of dataset characteristics, fire prevention policy decisions, weather and climate.

    PubMed

    Parente, Joana; Pereira, Mário G; Tonini, Marj

    2016-07-15

    The present study focuses on the dependence of the space-time permutation scan statistics (STPSS) (1) on the input database's characteristics and (2) on the use of this methodology to assess changes on the fire regime due to different type of climate and fire management activities. Based on the very strong relationship between weather and the fire incidence in Portugal, the detected clusters will be interpreted in terms of the atmospheric conditions. Apart from being the country most affected by the fires in the European context, Portugal meets all the conditions required to carry out this study, namely: (i) two long and comprehensive official datasets, i.e. the Portuguese Rural Fire Database (PRFD) and the National Mapping Burnt Areas (NMBA), respectively based on ground and satellite measurements; (ii) the two types of climate (Csb in the north and Csa in the south) that characterizes the Mediterranean basin regions most affected by the fires also divide the mainland Portuguese area; and, (iii) the national plan for the defence of forest against fires was approved a decade ago and it is now reasonable to assess its impacts. Results confirmed (1) the influence of the dataset's characteristics on the detected clusters, (2) the existence of two different fire regimes in the country promoted by the different types of climate, (3) the positive impacts of the fire prevention policy decisions and (4) the ability of the STPSS to correctly identify clusters, regarding their number, location, and space-time size in spite of eventual space and/or time splits of the datasets. Finally, the role of the weather on days when clustered fires were active was confirmed for the classes of small, medium and large fires. PMID:27058134

  6. Updated estimates of the climate response to emissions and their policy implications (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, A.; Stocker, T. F.; Frame, D. J.

    2013-12-01

    We review the implications of observations of the global energy budget over recent decades, particularly the 'warming hiatus' period over the 2000s, for key climate system properties including equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), transient climate response (TCR) and transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE). We show how estimates of the upper bound of ECS remain, as ever, sensitive to prior assumptions and also how ECS, even if it were better constrained, would provide much less information about the social cost of carbon than TCR or TCRE. Hence the excitement over recent, apparently conflicting, estimates of ECS, is almost entirely misplaced. Of greater potential policy significance is the fact that recent observations imply a modest (of order 25%) downward revision in the upper bound and most likely values of TCR and TCRE, as compared to some, but not all, of the estimates published in the mid-2000s. This is partly due to the recent reduced rate of warming, and partly due to revisions in estimates of total anthropogenic forcing to date. Both of these developments may turn out to be short-lived, so the policy implications of this modest revision in TCR/TCRE should not be over-sold: nevertheless, it is interesting to explore what they are. The implications for climate change adaptation of a 25% downward revision in TCR and TCRE are minimal, being overshadowed by uncertainty due to internal variability and non-CO2 climate forcings over typical timescales for adaptation planning. We introduce a simple framework for assessing the implications for mitigation in terms of timing of peak emissions average rates of emission reduction required to avoid specific levels of peak warming. We show that, as long as emissions continue to increase approximately exponentially, the implications for mitigation of any revisions in the climate response are surprisingly small.

  7. A decision support tool for simulating the effects of alternative policies affecting water resources: an application at the European scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fassio, A.; Giupponi, C.; Hiederer, R.; Simota, C.

    2005-03-01

    This paper presents the methodology applied and results obtained from testing the Decision Support System 'mDSS' developed by the MULINO Project (Multi-sectoral, integrated and operational decision support system for the sustainable use of water resources at the catchment scale), for assessing alternative measures for the reduction of nitrogen pressure from agriculture on water resources at European level. The European policy background is set by the EU Nitrates Directive (91/676/EEC) and the Water Framework Directive (2000/60/EC). The nature of the research is exploratory. It is aimed in particular at testing the usefulness of available official statistics for ex ante evaluations of alternative policy measures at the European scale, and the feasibility of such operations within the newly released mDSS software. Alternative measures for reducing N-pressure and spatial targets were designed and simulated in a GIS environment based on raster maps of 1 km resolution. The geographic extent of the present work is defined as the agricultural land of EU15. Data deriving from official statistics were used to calculate a simplified nitrogen balance, in which the sources of nitrogen are separated into organic (livestock manure) and mineral fertilisers, to distinguish the potential contribution of livestock and crop productions to water pollution at the river basin scale. Spatial indicators and evaluation indices were defined within a conceptual framework. For the study the DPSIR approach (Driving force, Pressure, State, Impact, Response), proposed by the European Environmental Agency, was adopted. The approach was subsequently elaborated by means of the multi-criteria functionality provided by mDSS. The results of this application test at the regional scale highlight the potential of the tool for evaluating the effects of policy measures targeted at different spatial implementation strategies through the application of simple screening models and using available data

  8. Influence of the North Atlantic oceanograghic and climatic parameters on the Spanish European Eel population recruitment: relationships in the past and for a future climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert; Díaz, Estíbaliz; Korta, María; Chust, Guillem

    2016-04-01

    The status of the European eel population is critical.; the annual recruitment of glass eel to European waters in 2015 is 1.2% of the 1960-1979 level in the 'North Sea' area, and 8.4% in the rest of Europe (ICES 2015) . There are a number of anthropogenic impacts potentially affecting eel population including commercial exploitation, habitat loss, dam and weir construction, hydropower, pumping stations and surface water abstractions. Furthermore, the first eel stages and larval migration and marine survival are heavily influenced by oceanic and climatic factors since the species breeds in the Sargasso Sea and migrates to the continental shelf of the Atlantic coast of Europe and North Africa. Therefore, the study of the relations between recruitment and oceanic conditions may allow to study the potential effect of climatic change on the future eel recruitment and therefore stock. In the present study, the relation between glass eel recruitment and oceanic and climatic factors has been studied. Historic glass eel catches data beginning in the 50s from two Mediterranean and two Atlantic estuaries have been used as a proxy of recruitment. The relation of catches with the main oceanographic and climatic factors identified in the literature was established using an ocean reanalysis, the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) and determined which variables are significantly related to the number of catches. The analysis shows significant relationships between catches and oceanic (Surface Downward Stress, Sea Water Temperature and Sea Water Velocity) and atmospheric (NAO Index, AMO Index) variables. Subsequently, we applied the results of three climate models (GFDL-ESM2M, CanESM2 and CNRM-CM5), associated with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under two simulations of climate change (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), both associated with the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC, for possible future influences on the eel. This research was funded by the Spanish

  9. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

  10. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  11. Geospatial Issues in Energy-Climate Modeling: Implications for Modelers, Economists, Climate Scientists and Policy Makers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newmark, R. L.; Arent, D.; Sullivan, P.; Short, W.

    2010-12-01

    Accurate characterizations of renewable energy technologies, particularly wind, solar, geothermal, and biomass, require an increasingly sophisticated understanding of location-specific attributes, including generation or production costs and the cost of transmission or transportation to a point of use, and climate induced changes to the resource base. Capturing these site-specific characteristics in national and global models presents both unique opportunities and challenges. National and global decisions, ideally, should be informed by geospatially rich data and analysis. Here we describe issues related to and initial advances in representing renewable energy technologies in global models, and the resulting implications for climate stabilization analysis and global assessments, including IPCC’s Assessment Round 5 and IEA’s World Energy Outlook.

  12. An Integrated Systems Approach to Designing Climate Change Adaptation Policy in Water Resources

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ryu, D.; Malano, H. M.; Davidson, B.; George, B.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change projections are characterised by large uncertainties with rainfall variability being the key challenge in designing adaptation policies. Climate change adaptation in water resources shows all the typical characteristics of 'wicked' problems typified by cognitive uncertainty as new scientific knowledge becomes available, problem instability, knowledge imperfection and strategic uncertainty due to institutional changes that inevitably occur over time. Planning that is characterised by uncertainties and instability requires an approach that can accommodate flexibility and adaptive capacity for decision-making. An ability to take corrective measures in the event that scenarios and responses envisaged initially derive into forms at some future stage. We present an integrated-multidisciplinary and comprehensive framework designed to interface and inform science and decision making in the formulation of water resource management strategies to deal with climate change in the Musi Catchment of Andhra Pradesh, India. At the core of this framework is a dialogue between stakeholders, decision makers and scientists to define a set of plausible responses to an ensemble of climate change scenarios derived from global climate modelling. The modelling framework used to evaluate the resulting combination of climate scenarios and adaptation responses includes the surface and groundwater assessment models (SWAT & MODFLOW) and the water allocation modelling (REALM) to determine the water security of each adaptation strategy. Three climate scenarios extracted from downscaled climate models were selected for evaluation together with four agreed responses—changing cropping patterns, increasing watershed development, changing the volume of groundwater extraction and improving irrigation efficiency. Water security in this context is represented by the combination of level of water availability and its associated security of supply for three economic activities (agriculture

  13. Modeling the Evolution of Riparian Woodlands Facing Climate Change in Three European Rivers with Contrasting Flow Regimes

    PubMed Central

    Rivaes, Rui P.; Rodríguez-González, Patricia M.; Ferreira, Maria Teresa; Pinheiro, António N.; Politti, Emilio; Egger, Gregory; García-Arias, Alicia; Francés, Felix

    2014-01-01

    Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change. PMID:25330151

  14. Relating climate change policy to poverty policy: assessing the global exposure of the poor to floods and droughts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Winsemius, Hessel; Jongman, Brenden; Veldkamp, Ted; Hallegatte, Stéphane; Bangalore, Mook; Ward, Philip

    2016-04-01

    Prior to the COP21 conference in Paris this year, the World Bank published a report called "Shockwaves - Managing the Impacts of Climate Change on Poverty". The report flagged that ending poverty and stabilizing climate change should be jointly tackled and that without a good joint policy, a further 100 million people could become trapped in poverty by 2050. As part of the "Shockwaves" report, we investigated whether low-income households are disproportionately overrepresented in hazard-prone areas compared to households with higher income. Furthermore, the hazardous conditions under which poor households are exposed to now may become worse due to climate change with resulting increases in intensity and frequency of floods and droughts. We also show how the amount of affected people to these natural hazards change in the future if nothing is done. We use recent advances in the global spatial modeling of flood and drought hazard and a large sample of household surveys containing asset and income data to explore the relationships.

  15. Language Educational Policy and Language Learning Quality Management: The "Common European Framework of Reference"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barenfanger, Olaf; Tschirner, Erwin

    2008-01-01

    The major goal of the Council of Europe to promote and facilitate communication and interaction among Europeans of different mother tongues has led to the development of the "Common European Framework of Reference for Languages: Learning, Teaching, Assessment" (CEFR). Among other things, the CEFR is intended to help language professionals reflect…

  16. New Directions in European Vocational Education and Training Policy and Practice: Lessons for Australia. A National Vocational Education and Training Research and Evaluation Program Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harris, Roger; Simons, Michele; Maher, Katie

    2009-01-01

    In light of recent developments in educational policy and the positioning of vocational education and training (VET) across the European Union, it was timely to explore these new directions and the lessons for Australian VET. A striking feature both in the European Union and Australia is the wide scope of issues that governments are addressing and…

  17. The Road to the European Union: Macroeconomic Policy Challenges for Hungary and Poland. Fulbright-Hayes Summer Seminars Abroad Program, 2002 (Hungary and Poland).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ramirez, Teresita R.

    Prospects for the enlargement of the European Union (EU) became imminent when the EU Commission agreed in 1997 to open formal negotiations with five of the Central and Eastern European countries: (1) the Czech Republic; (2) Hungary; (3) Poland; (4) Slovenia; and (5) Estonia. This research project discusses macroeconomic policy challenges that…

  18. Political and Legal Framework for the Development of Training Policy in the European Union. Part I--From the Treaty of Rome to the Treaty of Maastricht.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bainbridge, Steve; Murray, Julie

    2000-01-01

    Reviews the history of vocational training policy from the establishment of the European Economic Community in the Treaty of Rome in 1957 to the Treaty of Maastricht, which created the European Union in 1992. Discusses the evolution from a centralized legislative approach to a more user-oriented approach promoting mobility. (Contains 40…

  19. Land-Use Change: Impacts of Climate Variations and Policies Examples From Northern Shaanxi Province, China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostwald, M.

    2003-12-01

    Phases of dynamical change are taking place in many developing countries causing land-use change. In China there has been enormous economic growth since 1978 followed by impacts on the environmental, social and economical conduct of the society. One of the counter actions taken by the Government to halt the environmental degradation in the Loess Plateau has been the introduction of the Crop Conversion Program in 1999, stopping agricultural activity in slope areas, mainly used by small-scale farmers. At the same time climate variations have also been evident in the area with decreases in rainfall and increases in temperature since 1970. The aim here is to examine what vegetation changes are seen on large scales in the area from 2000-2002, and how they correlate to local land-use changes. We then investigate how the land-use changes correlated with climate variations and/or policies and reforms. The data included in this integrated assessment includes remote sensing information from MODIS and ASTER images, climate and statistical data as well as farmer's participatory data. The results show that the large-scale vegetation has increased and that correlates well with dramatic local land-use change caused by the policy implementation. This however is not correlated with the climate variation found during this time (both lagged and simultaneous) which show a less favorable vegetation condition; all very well perceived by farmers. Hence the direct force behind the extreme land-use change is more associated with policy and economics than climate

  20. The European Federation of Organisations for Medical Physics Policy Statement No. 6.1: Recommended Guidelines on National Registration Schemes for Medical Physicists.

    PubMed

    Christofides, Stelios; Isidoro, Jorge; Pesznyak, Csilla; Bumbure, Lada; Cremers, Florian; Schmidt, Werner F O

    2016-01-01

    This EFOMP Policy Statement is an update of Policy Statement No. 6 first published in 1994. The present version takes into account the European Union Parliament and Council Directive 2013/55/EU that amends Directive 2005/36/EU on the recognition of professional qualifications and the European Union Council Directive 2013/59/EURATOM laying down the basic safety standards for protection against the dangers arising from exposure to ionising radiation. The European Commission Radiation Protection Report No. 174, Guidelines on Medical Physics Expert and the EFOMP Policy Statement No. 12.1, Recommendations on Medical Physics Education and Training in Europe 2014, are also taken into consideration. The EFOMP National Member Organisations are encouraged to update their Medical Physics registration schemes where these exist or to develop registration schemes taking into account the present version of this EFOMP Policy Statement (Policy Statement No. 6.1"Recommended Guidelines on National Registration Schemes for Medical Physicists"). PMID:26851162

  1. Mamizu climate policy: an evaluation of Japanese carbon emissions reduction targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pielke, Roger A., Jr.

    2009-12-01

    This letter evaluates Japan's so-called 'Mamizu' climate policies proposed in mid-2009 in terms of the implied rates of decarbonization of the Japanese economy for short-term and long-term targets. The letter uses the Kaya identity to structure the evaluation, employing both a bottom up approach (based on projections of future Japanese population, economic growth, and technology) and a top down approach (deriving implied rates of decarbonization consistent with the targets and various rates of economic growth). Both approaches indicate that the Japanese economy would have to achieve rates of decarbonization of 2.6% to meet a 2020 target of reducing emissions by 15% below 2005 levels, and 5.0% to meet a 2050 target of an 80% reduction below 2005 levels. A target of 25% below 1990 emissions proposed by the opposition party (which subsequently formed a government following elections in August 2009) implies a rate of decarbonization of 4.6% annually to 2020. The letter argues that international criticism of Japanese Mamizu climate policy proposals as being too weak was unfounded, and if anything, the proposals may have been too ambitious. In either case, climate policy would be strengthened through the support of a diversity of approaches to decarbonization.

  2. The Impact of Near-term Climate Policy Choices on Technology and Emissions Transition Pathways

    SciTech Connect

    Eom, Jiyong; Edmonds, James A.; Krey, Volker; Johnson, Nils; Longden, Thomas; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores the implications of delays associated with currently formulated climate policies (compared to optimal policies) for long-term transition pathways to limit climate forcing to 450ppm CO2e on the basis of the AMPERE Work Package 2 model comparison study. The paper highlights the critical importance of the 2030-2050 period for ambitious mitigation strategies. In this period, the most rapid shift to non-greenhouse gas emitting technology occurs. In the delayed response emissions mitigation scenarios, an even faster transition rate in this period is required to compensate for the additional emissions before 2030. Our physical deployment measures indicate that, without CCS, technology deployment rates in the 2030-2050 period would become considerably high. Yet the presence of CCS greatly alleviates the challenges to the transition particularly after the delayed climate policies. The results also highlight the critical role that bioenergy and CO2 capture and storage (BECCS) could play. If this technology is available, transition pathways exceed the emissions budget in the mid-term, removing the excess with BECCS in the long term. Excluding either BE or CCS from the technology portfolio implies that emission reductions need to take place much earlier.

  3. Global climate policy impacts on livestock, land use, livelihoods, and food security

    PubMed Central

    Golub, Alla A.; Henderson, Benjamin B.; Hertel, Thomas W.; Gerber, Pierre J.; Rose, Steven K.; Sohngen, Brent

    2013-01-01

    Recent research has shed light on the cost-effective contribution that agriculture can make to global greenhouse gas abatement; however, the resulting impacts on agricultural production, producer livelihoods, and food security remain largely unexplored. This paper provides an integrated assessment of the linkages between land-based climate policies, development, and food security, with a particular emphasis on abatement opportunities and impacts in the livestock sector. Targeting Annex I countries and exempting non-Annex I countries from land-based carbon policies on equity or food security grounds may result in significant leakage rates for livestock production and agriculture as a whole. We find that such leakage can be eliminated by supplying forest carbon sequestration incentives to non-Annex I countries. Furthermore, substantial additional global agricultural abatement can be attained by extending a greenhouse gas emissions tax to non-Annex I agricultural producers, while compensating them for their additional tax expenses. Because of their relatively large emissions intensities and limited abatement possibilities, ruminant meat producers face the greatest market adjustments to land-based climate policies. We also evaluate the impacts of climate policies on livelihoods and food consumption in developing countries. In the absence of non-Annex I abatement policies, these impacts are modest. However, strong income and food consumption impacts surface because of higher food costs after forest carbon sequestration is promoted at a global scale. Food consumption among unskilled labor households falls but rises for the representative farm households, because global agricultural supplies are restricted and farm prices rise sharply in the face of inelastic food demands. PMID:23019587

  4. Antarctica and Global Environmental Change - Lessons from the Past Inform Climate Change Policy Today

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunbar, R. B.; Scientific Team Of Odp Drilling Leg 318; Andrill Science Team

    2011-12-01

    Antarctic's continental ice, sea ice, and the broader Southern Ocean form a coupled and complex climate system that interacts in important yet poorly understood ways with the low and mid-latitudes. Because of its unusual sovereignty status and the fact that there is no indigenous human population, information about climate change in Antarctica penetrates the policy world less readily than findings from other regions. Yet, Antarctica's potential to impact climate change globally is disproportionately large. Vulnerable portions of the ice sheet may contribute up to 3 to 5 meters of sea level rise in the coming centuries, including significant amounts within the next 50 years. Loss of sea ice and other changes in the Southern Ocean may reduce oceanic uptake of excess atmospheric carbon dioxide, exacerbating global warming worldwide. Antarctica's impact on the Southern Hemisphere wind field is now well-established, contributing to ongoing decadal-scale perturbations in continental precipitation as well as major reorganizations of Southern Ocean food chains. Recent scientific drilling programs in the Ross Sea and off Wilkes Land, Antarctica, provide valuable insights into past climatic and biogeochemical change in Antarctica, insights of great relevance to international and national climate change policy. In this paper, we discuss polar amplification, sea level variability coupled to Antarctic ice volume, and response timescales as seen through the lens of past climate change. One key result emerging from multiple drilling programs is recognition of unanticipated dynamism in the Antarctic ice sheet during portions of the Pliocene (at a time with pCO2 levels equivalent to those anticipated late this century) as well as during "super-interglacials" of the Pleistocene. Evidence for substantially warmer ocean temperatures and reduced sea ice cover at these times suggests that polar amplification of natural climate variability, even under scenarios of relative small amounts

  5. New institutional mechanisms to bridge the information gap between climate science and public policy decisions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rogers, W.; Gulledge, J. M.

    2010-12-01

    Many decision makers lack actionable scientific information needed to prepare for future challenges associated with climate change. Although the scope and quality of available scientific information has increased dramatically in recent years, this information does not always reach - or is not presented in a form that is useful to - decision makers who need it. The producer (i.e. scientists) community tends to be stovepiped, even though consumers (i.e. decision makers) often need interdisciplinary science and analysis. Consumers, who may also be stovepiped in various agencies or subject areas, may lack familiarity with or access to these separate communities, as well as the tools or time to navigate scientific information and disciplines. Closing the communication gap between these communities could be facilitated by institutionalizing processes designed for this purpose. We recommend a variety of mainstreaming policies within the consumer community, as well as mechanisms to generate a strong demand signal that will resonate more strongly with the producer community. We also recommend institutional reforms and methods of incentivizing policy-oriented scientific analysis within the producer community. Our recommendations focus on improving information flow to national security and foreign policy decision makers, but many are relevant to public policy writ large. Recommendations for Producers 1. The scientific community should formally encourage collaborations between natural and social scientists and reward publications in interdisciplinary outlets Incentives could include research funding and honorary awards recognizing service to public policy. 2. Academic merit review should reward research grants and publications targeted at interdisciplinary and/or policy-oriented audiences. Reforms of merit review may require new policies and engaged institutional leadership. Recommendations for Consumers 1. Congress should amend Title VI of the National Defense Education Act

  6. Effects of climate and land-use change on species abundance in a Central European bird community.

    PubMed

    Lemoine, Nicole; Bauer, Hans-Günther; Peintinger, Markus; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin

    2007-04-01

    Although it is known that changes in land use and climate have an impact on ecological communities, it is unclear which of these factors is currently most important. We sought to determine the influence of land-use and climate alteration on changes in the abundance of Central European birds. We examined the impact of these factors by contrasting abundance changes of birds of different breeding habitat, latitudinal distribution, and migratory behavior. We examined data from the semiquantitative Breeding Bird Atlas of Lake Constance, which borders Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. Changes in the regional abundance of the 159 coexisting bird species from 1980-1981 to 2000-2002 were influenced by all three factors. Farmland birds, species with northerly ranges, and long-distance migrants declined, and wetland birds and species with southerly ranges increased in abundance. A separate analysis of the two decades between 1980-1981 and 1990-1992 and between 1990-1992 and 2000-2002 showed that the impact of climate change increased significantly over time. Latitudinal distribution was not significant in the first decade and became the most significant predictor of abundance changes in the second decade. Although the spatial scale and temporal resolution of our study is limited, this is the first study that suggests that climate change has overtaken land-use modification in determining population trends of Central European birds. PMID:17391199

  7. The impact of European legislative and technology measures to reduce air pollutants on air quality, human health and climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turnock, S. T.; Butt, E. W.; Richardson, T. B.; Mann, G. W.; Reddington, C. L.; Forster, P. M.; Haywood, J.; Crippa, M.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Johnson, C. E.; Bellouin, N.; Carslaw, K. S.; Spracklen, D. V.

    2016-02-01

    European air quality legislation has reduced emissions of air pollutants across Europe since the 1970s, affecting air quality, human health and regional climate. We used a coupled composition-climate model to simulate the impacts of European air quality legislation and technology measures implemented between 1970 and 2010. We contrast simulations using two emission scenarios; one with actual emissions in 2010 and the other with emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of technological improvements and end-of-pipe treatment measures in the energy, industrial and road transport sectors. European emissions of sulphur dioxide, black carbon (BC) and organic carbon in 2010 are 53%, 59% and 32% lower respectively compared to emissions that would have occurred in 2010 in the absence of legislative and technology measures. These emission reductions decreased simulated European annual mean concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 35%, sulphate by 44%, BC by 56% and particulate organic matter by 23%. The reduction in PM2.5 concentrations is calculated to have prevented 80 000 (37 000-116 000, at 95% confidence intervals) premature deaths annually across the European Union, resulting in a perceived financial benefit to society of US232 billion annually (1.4% of 2010 EU GDP). The reduction in aerosol concentrations due to legislative and technology measures caused a positive change in the aerosol radiative effect at the top of atmosphere, reduced atmospheric absorption and also increased the amount of solar radiation incident at the surface over Europe. We used an energy budget approximation to estimate that these changes in the radiative balance have increased European annual mean surface temperatures and precipitation by 0.45 ± 0.11 °C and by 13 ± 0.8 mm yr-1 respectively. Our results show that the implementation of European legislation and technological improvements to reduce the emission of air pollutants has improved air quality and human

  8. What is preventing relevant understanding of climate science in the public, media, and policy arenas?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reisman, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    We need to do a critical self examination of why the communication has thus far failed to sufficiently convey relevance in order to provide a basis for public and policy-maker understanding of the science. This session will focus on major impediments to communicating relevance and the foundations of climate science in two target audiences, those that are unsure, and those that have been misled. The question of 'why' is key. Considerations focus on social psychology and confluence effects that improve, or impede, climate communications and achievement of relevant understanding. Key components of human understanding require context in order to be addressed. Understanding these components form the basis for more effective climate communications.

  9. Health impact assessment of global climate change: expanding on comparative risk assessment approaches for policy making.

    PubMed

    Patz, Jonathan; Campbell-Lendrum, Diarmid; Gibbs, Holly; Woodruff, Rosalie

    2008-01-01

    Climate change is projected to have adverse impacts on public health. Cobenefits may be possible from more upstream mitigation of greenhouse gases causing climate change. To help measure such cobenefits alongside averted disease-specific risks, a health impact assessment (HIA) framework can more comprehensively serve as a decision support tool. HIA also considers health equity, clearly part of the climate change problem. New choices for energy must be made carefully considering such effects as additional pressure on the world's forests through large-scale expansion of soybean and oil palm plantations, leading to forest clearing, biodiversity loss and disease emergence, expulsion of subsistence farmers, and potential increases in food prices and emissions of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Investigators must consider the full range of policy options, supported by more comprehensive, flexible, and transparent assessment methods. PMID:18173382

  10. Biological and climatic controls on leaf litter decomposition across European forests and grasslands revealed by reciprocal litter transplantation experiments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Portillo-Estrada, M.; Pihlatie, M.; Korhonen, J. F. J.; Levula, J.; Frumau, A. K. F.; Ibrom, A.; Lembrechts, J. J.; Morillas, L.; Horváth, L.; Jones, S. K.; Niinemets, Ü.

    2015-11-01

    Projection of carbon and nitrogen cycles to future climates is associated with large uncertainties, in particular due to uncertainties how changes in climate alter soil turnover, including litter decomposition. In addition, future conditions are expected to result in changes in vegetation composition, and accordingly in litter type and quality, but it is unclear how such changes could potentially alter litter decomposition. Litter transplantation experiments were carried out across 6 European sites (4 forest and 2 grasslands) spanning a large geographical and climatic gradient (5.6-11.4 °C in annual temperature 511-878 mm in precipitation) to gain insight into biological (litter origin and type, soil type) and climatic controls on litter decomposition. The decomposition k rates were overall higher in warmer and wetter sites than in colder and drier sites, and positively correlated to the litter total specific leaf area. Also, litter N content increased as less litter mass remained and decay went further. Surprisingly, this study demonstrates that climatic controls on litter decomposition are quantitatively more important than species, litter origin and soil type. Cumulative climatic variables, precipitation and air temperature (ignoring days with air temperatures below 0 °C), were appropriate to predict the litter remaining mass during decomposition (Mr). And Mr and cumulative air temperature were found to be the best predictors for litter carbon and nitrogen remaining during decomposition. We concluded with an equation for predicting the decomposition k rate by using mean annual air temperature and litter total specific leaf area.

  11. Modelling the combined impacts of climate change and direct anthropogenic drivers on the ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wakelin, Sarah L.; Artioli, Yuri; Butenschön, Momme; Allen, J. Icarus; Holt, Jason T.

    2015-12-01

    The potential response of the marine ecosystem of the northwest European continental shelf to climate change under a medium emissions scenario (SRES A1B) is investigated using the coupled hydrodynamics-ecosystem model POLCOMS-ERSEM. Changes in the near future (2030-2040) and the far future (2082-2099) are compared to the recent past (1983-2000). The sensitivity of the ecosystem to potential changes in multiple anthropogenic drivers (river nutrient loads and benthic trawling) in the near future is compared to the impact of changes in climate. With the exception of the biomass of benthic organisms, the influence of the anthropogenic drivers only exceeds the impact of climate change in coastal regions. Increasing river nitrogen loads has a limited impact on the ecosystem whilst reducing river nitrogen and phosphate concentrations affects net primary production (netPP) and phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. Direct anthropogenic forcing is seen to mitigate/amplify the effects of climate change. Increasing river nitrogen has the potential to amplify the effects of climate change at the coast by increasing netPP. Reducing river nitrogen and phosphate mitigates the effects of climate change for netPP and the biomass of small phytoplankton and large zooplankton species but amplifies changes in the biomass of large phytoplankton and small zooplankton.

  12. Trans-Nationalization of Educational Policy Making: From European Innovation Projects in Adult Education to an Emerging European Space for Lifelong Learning: What Model for the European Vocational Education and Training Policy?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonnafous, Laurence

    2014-01-01

    This article is drawn from broader qualitative research on innovation in the field of professional adult training within the framework of European pilot projects such as the LEONARDO projects. This research aims at contributing to a general understanding of the phenomenon of innovation, in the context of European calls for projects, as an…

  13. Migration Related to Climate Change: Impact, Challenges and Proposed Policy Initiatives

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, A.

    2015-12-01

    Migration of human population possesses a great threat to human development and nation building. A significant cause for migration is due to change in climatic conditions and vulnerabilities associated with it. Our case study focuses on the consequent reason and impact of such migration in the coastal areas of West Bengal, India. The changes in rainfall pattern and the variation of temperature have been considered as parameters which have resulted in migration. It is worthy to note that the agricultural pattern has subsequently changed over the last two decades due to change in rainfall and temperature. India being an agriculture oriented economy, the changes in the meteorological variables have not only altered the rate of agricultural pattern but also the rate of migration. A proposed framework depicting relationship between changes in meteorological variables and the migration pattern, and an estimate of how the migration pattern is expected to change over the next century by utilizing the downscaled values of future rainfall and temperature has been analyzed. Moreover, various public policy frameworks has also been proposed through the study for addressing the challenges of migration related to climate change. The proposed public policy framework has been streamlined along the lines of various international treaties and conventions in order to integrate the policy initiatives through universalization of law and policy research.

  14. The impact of climate policies on the operation of a thermal power plant

    SciTech Connect

    Orvika Rosnes

    2008-04-15

    Climate policy measures aimed at power markets influence the cost structure of producers and price patterns, and are therefore likely to influence the production decision of power plants, even in the short run. When power plants have costs related to starting and stopping, decisions on short-term production are intertemporal, and the conventional 'price vs. marginal cost' rule is not sufficient to predict production in thermal power plants. This paper analyzes how the optimal production decision is influenced by climate policies: namely, CO{sub 2} trading mechanisms, the expansion of renewables and the interaction between these policies. The main result is that higher power price variation (as a result of increased wind power production) makes the thermal power producer less flexible, but the effect on emissions is ambiguous. A CO{sub 2} cost (as a result of an emission trading system) increases the flexibility of the producer and the operation decision resembles the conventional 'price vs. marginal cost' rule more. This implies lower emissions. However, when the CO{sub 2} price is coupled with higher power price variation, the positive effects may be reversed since the two policies have opposing effects.

  15. Developing research about extreme events and impacts to support international climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Otto, Friederike; James, Rachel; Parker, Hannah; Boyd, Emily; Jones, Richard; Allen, Myles; Mitchell, Daniel; Cornforth, Rosalind

    2015-04-01

    Climate change is expected to have some of its most significant impacts through changes in the frequency and severity of extreme events. There is a pressing need for policy to support adaptation to changing climate risks, and to deal with residual loss and damage from climate change. In 2013, the Warsaw International Mechanism was established by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to address loss and damage in developing countries. Strategies to help vulnerable regions cope with losses from extreme events will presumably require information about the influence of anthropogenic forcing on extreme weather. But what kind of scientific evidence will be most useful for the Warsaw Mechanism? And how can the scientific communities working on extreme events and impacts develop their research to support the advance of this important policy? As climate scientists conducting probabilistic event attribution studies, we have been working with social scientists to investigate these questions. Our own research seeks to examine the role of external drivers, including greenhouse gas emissions, on the risk of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, flooding, and drought. We use large ensembles of climate models to compute the probability of occurrence of extreme events under current conditions and in a world which might have been without anthropogenic interference. In cases where the models are able to simulate extreme weather, the analysis allows for conclusions about the extent to which climate change may have increased, decreased, or made no change to the risk of the event occurring. These results could thus have relevance for the UNFCCC negotiations on loss and damage, and we have been communicating with policymakers and observers to the policy process to better understand how we can develop our research to support their work; by attending policy meetings, conducting interviews, and using a participatory game developed with the Red Cross

  16. Are Sexual and Reproductive Health Policies Designed for All? Vulnerable Groups in Policy Documents of Four European Countries and Their Involvement in Policy Development

    PubMed Central

    Ivanova, Olena; Dræbel, Tania; Tellier, Siri

    2015-01-01

    Background: Health policies are important instruments for improving population health. However, experience suggests that policies designed for the whole population do not always benefit the most vulnerable. Participation of vulnerable groups in the policy-making process provides an opportunity for them to influence decisions related to their health, and also to exercise their rights. This paper presents the findings from a study that explored how vulnerable groups and principles of human rights are incorporated into national sexual and reproductive health (SRH) policies of 4 selected countries (Spain, Scotland, Republic of Moldova, and Ukraine). It also aimed at discussing the involvement of vulnerable groups in SRH policy development from the perspective of policy-makers. Methods: Literature review, health policy analysis and 5 semi-structured interviews with policy-makers were carried out in this study. Content analysis of SRH policies was performed using the EquiFrame analytical framework. Results: The study revealed that vulnerable groups and core principles of human rights are differently addressed in SRH policies within 4 studied countries. The opinions of policy-makers on the importance of mentioning vulnerable groups in policy documents and the way they ought to be mentioned varied, but they agreed that a clear definition of vulnerability, practical examples, and evidences on health status of these groups have to be included. In addition, different approaches to vulnerable group’s involvement in policy development were identified during the interviews and the range of obstacles to this process was discussed by respondents. Conclusion: Incorporation of vulnerable groups in the SRH policies and their involvement in policy development were found to be important in addressing SRH of these groups and providing an opportunity for them to advocate for equal access to healthcare and exercise their rights. Future research on this topic should include

  17. Corporate coalitions and policy making in the European Union: how and why British American Tobacco promoted "Better Regulation".

    PubMed

    Smith, Katherine Elizabeth; Fooks, Gary; Gilmore, Anna B; Collin, Jeff; Weishaar, Heide

    2015-04-01

    Over the past fifteen years, an interconnected set of regulatory reforms, known as Better Regulation, has been adopted across Europe, marking a significant shift in the way that European Union policies are developed. There has been little exploration of the origins of these reforms, which include mandatory ex ante impact assessment. Drawing on documentary and interview data, this article discusses how and why large corporations, notably British American Tobacco (BAT), worked to influence and promote these reforms. Our analysis highlights (1) how policy entrepreneurs with sufficient resources (such as large corporations) can shape the membership and direction of advocacy coalitions; (2) the extent to which "think tanks" may be prepared to lobby on behalf of commercial clients; and (3) why regulated industries (including tobacco) may favor the use of "evidence tools," such as impact assessments, in policy making. We argue that a key aspect of BAT's ability to shape regulatory reform involved the deliberate construction of a vaguely defined idea that could be strategically adapted to appeal to diverse constituencies. We discuss the theoretical implications of this finding for the Advocacy Coalition Framework, as well as the practical implications of the findings for efforts to promote transparency and public health in the European Union. PMID:25646389

  18. Clinical evaluation of cardiovascular devices: principles, problems, and proposals for European regulatory reform. Report of a policy conference of the European Society of Cardiology.

    PubMed

    Fraser, Alan G; Daubert, Jean-Claude; Van de Werf, Frans; Estes, N A Mark; Smith, Sidney C; Krucoff, Mitchell W; Vardas, Panos E; Komajda, Michel

    2011-07-01

    The European Commission announced in 2008 that a fundamental revision of the medical device directives is being considered in order to clarify and strengthen the current legal framework. The system for testing and approving devices in Europe was established >20 years ago as a 'New Approach' to a previously little-regulated industry. It is recognized by many that the regulatory system has not kept pace with technological advances and changing patterns of medical practice. New legislation will be drafted during 2011, but medical experts have been little involved in this important process. This context makes it an opportune time for a professional association to advise from both clinical and academic perspectives about changes which should be made to improve the safety and efficacy of devices used in clinical practice and to develop more appropriate systems for their clinical evaluation and post-marketing surveillance. This report summarizes how medical devices are regulated and it reviews some serious clinical problems that have occurred with cardiovascular devices. Finally, it presents the main recommendations from a Policy Conference on the Clinical Evaluation of Cardiovascular Devices that was held at the European Heart House in January 2011. PMID:21572115

  19. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios describe emission developments in 26 world regions for the 21st century, using a matrix of climate and air pollution policies. For climate policy, the study uses a baseline resulting in forcing levels slightly above RCP6.0 and an ambitious climate policy scenario similar to RCP2.6. For air pollution, the study explores increasingly tight emission standards, ranging from no improvement, current legislation and three variants assuming further improvements. For all pollutants, the results show that more stringent control policies are needed after 2030 to prevent a rise in emissions due to increased activities and further reduce emissions. The results also show that climate mitigation policies have the highest impact on SO2 and NOX emissions, while their impact on BC and OC emissions is relatively low, determined by the overlap between greenhouse gas and air pollutant emission sources. Climate policy can have important co-benefits; a 10% decrease in global CO2 emissions by 2100 leads to a decrease of SO2 and NOX emissions by about 10% and 5%, respectively compared to 2005 levels. In most regions, low levels of air pollutant emissions can also be achieved by solely implementing stringent air pollution policies. The largest differences across the scenarios are found in Asia and other developing regions, where a combination of climate and air pollution policy is needed to bring air pollution levels below those of today.

  20. A Comparative Analysis of E-Learning Policy Formulation in the European Union and the United States: Discursive Convergence and Divergence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erichsen, Elizabeth Roumell; Salajan, Florin D.

    2014-01-01

    This study developed a framework that compares the content and purposes of "federal" level European Union (EU) and United States (US) e-learning policy to ascertain trends, patterns, and points of convergence and divergence across the years 1994-2010. It reveals that the EU and US are applying similar rhetoric for policy framing,…

  1. Global land-use and market interactions between climate and bioenergy policies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Golub, A.; Hertel, T. W.; Rose, S. K.

    2011-12-01

    Over the past few years, interest in bioenergy has boomed with higher oil prices and concerns about energy security, farm incomes, and mitigation of climate change. Large-scale commercial bioenergy production could have far reaching implications for regional and global land use and output markets associated with food, forestry, chemical, and energy sectors, as well as household welfare. Similarly, there is significant interest in international agricultural and forestry based carbon sequestration and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, which could also provide revenue to developing countries and farmers in exchange for modifying land management practices. However, bioenergy and climate policies are being formulated largely independent of one another. Understanding the interaction between these potentially competing policy objectives is important for identifying possible constraints that one policy might place on the other, potential complementarities that could be exploited in policy design, and net land-use change and management implications over time. This study develops a new dynamic global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model GDyn-E-AEZ to assess the interaction between biofuels production and climate mitigation policies. The model is built on several existing CGE platforms, including 1) GTAP-AEZ-GHG model (Golub et al., 2009), 2) GTAP-BIO (Birur et al., 2008; Taheripour and Tyner, 2011), and 3) GDyn framework (Ianchovichina and McDougall, 2001) extended to investigate the role of population and per capita income growth, changing consumption patterns, and global economic integration in determining long-run patterns of land-use change. The new model is used to assess the effects of domestic and global bioenergy expansion on future land use, as well as sectoral, regional and global GHG emissions mitigation potential. Do bioenergy programs facilitate or constrain GHG mitigation opportunities? For instance, Golub et al. (2009) estimate substantial GHG

  2. Combined Methods for Quantifying Uncertainty of Regional Climate Change for Use in Policy and Resources Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mearns, L. O.; Tebaldi, C.

    2006-12-01

    Over tha past few years, methods for quantifying uncertainty in regional climate change have seen an upswing in development, and this was greatly facilitated by the creation of a relatively large multi-member ensemble of coupled climate model runs for the Fourth Assessment of the IPCC. Usually the rationale for developing such probabilistic methods is for use by impacts researchers, policy makers, and resource managers, to aid in their decision making. While these developments have been welcome, it is clear that probabilisitc information developed in a Bayesian framework, alone will not suffice for providng levels of confidence in the future projections. While some of the methods have attempted to weight the members of multi-model ensembles by evaluating how well the models reproduce current climate, so far these methods have been overly simplistic. It may well be that qualitative information regarding the model's reproduction of critical processes that determine the climate of a particular region needs to be considered along with probabilistic information. We discuss how these different types of information (qualitative process-based and probability density functions) could be combined to provide a more complete assessment of how confident we should be regarding regional cliamte change. measure of uncertainty for regional scale climate change.

  3. Program on Promoting Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Bridging Policy Making and Science Research in Taiwan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiang, Y.; Chiang, W.; Sui, C.; Tung, C.; Ho, H.; Li, M.; Chan, S.; Climate Change Adaptation Technologies Program, National Science Council, Taiwan

    2010-12-01

    the third group, Risk Management and Adaptation Technology, is to develop the procedures and principles of planning adaptation measures, to propose social-economic tactics and science development strategies, and to integrate policy early warning and decision making supported with risk management. International collaborations and knowledge/experience exchanges with a variety of climate change sensitive sectors, organizations, and nations are highly expected.

  4. Modeling water scarcity and droughts for policy adaptation to climate change in arid and semiarid regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahil, Mohamed Taher; Dinar, Ariel; Albiac, Jose

    2015-03-01

    Growing water extractions combined with emerging demands for environment protection increase competition for scarce water resources worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid regions. In those regions, climate change is projected to exacerbate water scarcity and increase the recurrence and intensity of droughts. These circumstances call for methodologies that can support the design of sustainable water management. This paper presents a hydro-economic model that links a reduced form hydrological component, with economic and environmental components. The model is applied to an arid and semiarid basin in Southeastern Spain to analyze the effects of droughts and to assess alternative adaptation policies. Results indicate that drought events have large impacts on social welfare, with the main adjustments sustained by irrigation and the environment. The water market policy seems to be a suitable option to overcome the negative economic effects of droughts, although the environmental effects may weaken its advantages for society. The environmental water market policy, where water is acquired for the environment, is an appealing policy to reap the private benefits of markets while protecting ecosystems. The current water management approach in Spain, based on stakeholders' cooperation, achieves almost the same economic outcomes and better environmental outcomes compared to a pure water market. These findings call for a reconsideration of the current management in arid and semiarid basins around the world. The paper illustrates the potential of hydro-economic modeling for integrating the multiple dimensions of water resources, becoming a valuable tool in the advancement of sustainable water management policies.

  5. Carbon Lock-in Through Capital Stock Inertia Associated with Weak Near-term Climate Policies

    SciTech Connect

    Bertram, Christoph; Johnson, Nils; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Isaac, Morna; Eom, Jiyong

    2015-01-01

    Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a strict limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are so far lacking. Based on an ensemble of ten energy-economy models, we explore how long-term transformation pathways depend on policies pursued during the next two decades. We find that weak GHG emission targets for 2030 lead, in that year alone, to excess carbon dioxide emissions of nearly half of the annual emissions in 2010, mainly through coal electricity generation. Furthermore, by consuming more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the first two decades, weak policy increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions. Therefore, to be successful under weak policies, models must prematurely retire much of the additional coal capacity post-2030 and remove large quantities of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, makes the post-2030 transition easier.

  6. The Role of Technology for Achieving Climate Policy Objectives: Overview of the EMF 27 Study on Technology Strategies and Climate Policy Scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Kriegler, Elmar; Weyant, John; Blanford, Geoffrey J.; Krey, Volker; Clarke, Leon E.; Edmonds, James A.; Fawcett, Allen A.; Luderer, Gunnar; Riahi, Keywan; Richels, Richard G.; Rose, Steven; Tavoni, Massimo; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2014-04-01

    This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 19 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the value of individual mitigation technologies such as energy intensity improvements, carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), nuclear power, solar and wind power and bioenergy for climate mitigation. Achieving atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration targets at 450 and 550 ppm CO2 equivalent requires massive greenhouse gas emissions reductions. A fragmented policy approach at the level of current ambition is inconsistent with these targets. The availability of a negative emissions technology, in most models biofuels with CCS, proved to be a key element for achieving the climate targets. Robust characteristics of the transformation of the energy system are increased energy intensity improvements and the electrification of energy end use coupled with a fast decarbonization of the electricity sector. Non-electric energy end use is hardest to decarbonize, particularly in the transport sector. Technology is a key element of climate mitigation. Versatile technologies such as CCS and bioenergy have largest value, due in part to their combined ability to produce negative emissions. The individual value of low-carbon power technologies is more limited due to the many alternatives in the sector. The scale of the energy transformation is larger for the 450 ppm than for the 550 ppm CO2e target. As a result, the achievability and the costs of the 450 ppm target are more sensitive to variations in technology variability. Mitigation costs roughly double when moving from 550 ppm to 450 ppm CO2e, but remain below 3% of GDP for most models.

  7. Climate change impacts on the power generation potential of a European mid-century wind farms scenario

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tobin, Isabelle; Jerez, Sonia; Vautard, Robert; Thais, Françoise; van Meijgaard, Erik; Prein, Andreas; Déqué, Michel; Kotlarski, Sven; Fox Maule, Cathrine; Nikulin, Grigory; Noël, Thomas; Teichmann, Claas

    2016-03-01

    Wind energy resource is subject to changes in climate. To investigate the impacts of climate change on future European wind power generation potential, we analyze a multi-model ensemble of the most recent EURO-CORDEX regional climate simulations at the 12 km grid resolution. We developed a mid-century wind power plant scenario to focus the impact assessment on relevant locations for future wind power industry. We found that, under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, changes in the annual energy yield of the future European wind farms fleet as a whole will remain within ±5% across the 21st century. At country to local scales, wind farm yields will undergo changes up to 15% in magnitude, according to the large majority of models, but smaller than 5% in magnitude for most regions and models. The southern fleets such as the Iberian and Italian fleets are likely to be the most affected. With regard to variability, changes are essentially small or poorly significant from subdaily to interannual time scales.

  8. High-end climate change impact on European runoff and low flows - exploring the effects of forcing biases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Papadimitriou, Lamprini V.; Koutroulis, Aristeidis G.; Grillakis, Manolis G.; Tsanis, Ioannis K.

    2016-05-01

    Climate models project a much more substantial warming than the 2 °C target under the more probable emission scenarios, making higher-end scenarios increasingly plausible. Freshwater availability under such conditions is a key issue of concern. In this study, an ensemble of Euro-CORDEX projections under RCP8.5 is used to assess the mean and low hydrological states under +4 °C of global warming for the European region. Five major European catchments were analysed in terms of future drought climatology and the impact of +2 °C versus +4 °C global warming was investigated. The effect of bias correction of the climate model outputs and the observations used for this adjustment was also quantified. Projections indicate an intensification of the water cycle at higher levels of warming. Even for areas where the average state may not considerably be affected, low flows are expected to reduce, leading to changes in the number of dry days and thus drought climatology. The identified increasing or decreasing runoff trends are substantially intensified when moving from the +2 to the +4° of global warming. Bias correction resulted in an improved representation of the historical hydrology. It is also found that the selection of the observational data set for the application of the bias correction has an impact on the projected signal that could be of the same order of magnitude to the selection of the Global Climate Model (GCM).

  9. Long-term perspective underscores need for stronger near-term policies on climate change

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcott, S. A.; Shakun, J. D.; Clark, P. U.; Mix, A. C.; Pierrehumbert, R.; Goldner, A. P.

    2014-12-01

    Despite scientific consensus that substantial anthropogenic climate change will occur during the 21st century and beyond, the social, economic and political will to address this global challenge remains mired in uncertainty and indecisiveness. One contributor to this situation may be that scientific findings are often couched in technical detail focusing on near-term changes and uncertainties and often lack a relatable long-term context. We argue that viewing near-term changes from a long-term perspective provides a clear demonstration that policy decisions made in the next few decades will affect the Earth's climate, and with it our socio-economic well-being, for the next ten millennia or more. To provide a broader perspective, we present a graphical representation of Earth's long-term climate history that clearly identifies the connection between near-term policy options and the geological scale of future climate change. This long view is based on a combination of recently developed global proxy temperature reconstructions of the last 20,000 years and model projections of surface temperature for the next 10,000 years. Our synthesis places the 20th and 21st centuries, when most emissions are likely to occur, into the context of the last twenty millennia over which time the last Ice Age ended and human civilization developed, and the next ten millennia, over which time the projected impacts will occur. This long-term perspective raises important questions about the most effective adaptation and mitigation policies. For example, although some consider it economically viable to raise seawalls and dikes in response to 21st century sea level change, such a strategy does not account for the need for continuously building much higher defenses in the 22nd century and beyond. Likewise, avoiding tipping points in the climate system in the short term does not necessarily imply that such thresholds will not still be crossed in the more distant future as slower components

  10. Trends and Issues in California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard - Learning from Response to Existing Climate Policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Witcover, J.

    2015-12-01

    emissions in transportation, as other jurisdictions weigh similar climate policies and debate mechanisms and costs and California announced an ambitious target of halving petroleum use by 2030.

  11. The Role of Decision Support in Climate Science Research Policy: can the US Climate Science Program Fulfill its Mission?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, R. M.

    2006-12-01

    The US Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) is a massive, $2 billion-per-year effort to combine a broad portfolio of scientific activity into one coherent and integrated climate science program. The bulk of this is manifested in traditional scientific inquiry to generate knowledge about Earth systems, and the development of the infrastructure needed to support this effort. But the guiding vision and supporting mission of the program itself are expressed in terms of societal outcomes that rely on the use of knowledge, not just its generation. Thus an important question for CCSP is how will it translate scientific activity to meet the societal goals it has set for itself? Traditional research policy analysis has tended to focus on products (peer-reviewed papers, new research tools, etc.) or impacts (usually economic) that have no necessary connection to the achievement of societal goals such as those outlined in the CCSP. In this poster I present some initial analysis based on a new methodology called Public Value Mapping which addresses this challenge. With Public Value Mapping, the internal logic of a science policy structure is taken as a starting point for assessing its ability to achieve self- defined goals of intrinsic public value. In the case of the CCSP, decision support is highlighted as a key component that will determine whether or not the program can successfully translate its basic and applied science to socially robust knowledge that is of value to the stakeholders it seeks to serve. I discuss the CCSP's approach to decision support, and the implications of this for the program as a whole, in the context of previous work on the use of science in decision support.

  12. Language Policies and Practices in the Internationalisation of Higher Education on the European Margins: An Introduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cots, Josep M.; Llurda, Enric; Garrett, Peter

    2014-01-01

    Following Spolsky's definition of language policy, this introductory paper offers a brief reflection on the three main lines of research that are represented in this special issue regarding the relationship between internationalisation and language policies in higher education: management and planning, practices, and beliefs. In the first…

  13. Climate adaptation and policy-induced inflation of coastal property value.

    PubMed

    McNamara, Dylan E; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D; Murray, A Brad

    2015-01-01

    Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities. PMID:25806944

  14. Energy sector water use implications of a 2 °C climate policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fricko, Oliver; Parkinson, Simon C.; Johnson, Nils; Strubegger, Manfred; van Vliet, Michelle TH; Riahi, Keywan

    2016-03-01

    Quantifying water implications of energy transitions is important for assessing long-term freshwater sustainability since large volumes of water are currently used throughout the energy sector. In this paper, we assess direct global energy sector water use and thermal water pollution across a broad range of energy system transformation pathways to assess water impacts of a 2 °C climate policy. A global integrated assessment model is equipped with the capabilities to account for the water impacts of technologies located throughout the energy supply chain. The model framework is applied across a broad range of 2 °C scenarios to highlight long-term water impact uncertainties over the 21st century. We find that water implications vary significantly across scenarios, and that adaptation in power plant cooling technology can considerably reduce global freshwater withdrawals and thermal pollution. Global freshwater consumption increases across all of the investigated 2 °C scenarios as a result of rapidly expanding electricity demand in developing regions and the prevalence of freshwater-cooled thermal power generation. Reducing energy demand emerges as a robust strategy for water conservation, and enables increased technological flexibility on the supply side to fulfill ambitious climate objectives. The results underscore the importance of an integrated approach when developing water, energy, and climate policy, especially in regions where rapid growth in both energy and water demands is anticipated.

  15. Climate Adaptation and Policy-Induced Inflation of Coastal Property Value

    PubMed Central

    McNamara, Dylan E.; Gopalakrishnan, Sathya; Smith, Martin D.; Murray, A. Brad

    2015-01-01

    Human population density in the coastal zone and potential impacts of climate change underscore a growing conflict between coastal development and an encroaching shoreline. Rising sea-levels and increased storminess threaten to accelerate coastal erosion, while growing demand for coastal real estate encourages more spending to hold back the sea in spite of the shrinking federal budget for beach nourishment. As climatic drivers and federal policies for beach nourishment change, the evolution of coastline mitigation and property values is uncertain. We develop an empirically grounded, stochastic dynamic model coupling coastal property markets and shoreline evolution, including beach nourishment, and show that a large share of coastal property value reflects capitalized erosion control. The model is parameterized for coastal properties and physical forcing in North Carolina, U.S.A. and we conduct sensitivity analyses using property values spanning a wide range of sandy coastlines along the U.S. East Coast. The model shows that a sudden removal of federal nourishment subsidies, as has been proposed, could trigger a dramatic downward adjustment in coastal real estate, analogous to the bursting of a bubble. We find that the policy-induced inflation of property value grows with increased erosion from sea level rise or increased storminess, but the effect of background erosion is larger due to human behavioral feedbacks. Our results suggest that if nourishment is not a long-run strategy to manage eroding coastlines, a gradual removal is more likely to smooth the transition to more climate-resilient coastal communities. PMID:25806944

  16. Mitigation implications of midcentury targets that preserve long-term climate policy options

    PubMed Central

    O’Neill, Brian C.; Riahi, Keywan; Keppo, Ilkka

    2010-01-01

    Midcentury targets have been proposed as a guide to climate change policy that can link long-term goals to shorter-term actions. However no explicit mitigation analyses have been carried out of the relationship between midcentury conditions and longer-term outcomes. Here we use an integrated assessment modeling framework with a detailed representation of the energy sector to examine the dependence of climate change outcomes in 2100 on emissions levels, atmospheric concentrations, and technology characteristics in 2050. We find that midcentury conditions are crucial determinants of longer-term climate outcomes, and we identify feasibility thresholds describing conditions that must be met by midcentury to keep particular long-term options open. For example, to preserve the technical feasibility of a 50% likelihood of keeping global average temperature at < 2 °C above preindustrial in 2100, global emissions must be reduced by about 20% below 2000 levels by 2050. Results are sensitive to several assumptions, including the nature of future socio-economic development. In a scenario with high demand for energy and land, being below 2 °C with 50% likelihood requires a 50% reduction in emissions below 2000 levels by 2050, which is only barely feasible with known technologies in that scenario. Results suggest that a greater focus on midcentury targets could facilitate the development of policies that preserve potentially desirable long-term options. PMID:20080696

  17. CO₂ emission mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine; Wada, Kenichi; van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher than coal prices. A first deviation from optimal transition pathways is delayed action that relaxes global emission targets until 2030 in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger—twice and more—than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects to balance the full-century carbon budget. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear-cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because trade and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ across models. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  18. The effect of framing and normative messages in building support for climate policies.

    PubMed

    Hurlstone, Mark J; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R; Sewell, Brittany

    2014-01-01

    Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a "foregone-gain"--incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts--rather than as a "loss"--incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

  19. The Effect of Framing and Normative Messages in Building Support for Climate Policies

    PubMed Central

    Hurlstone, Mark J.; Lewandowsky, Stephan; Newell, Ben R.; Sewell, Brittany

    2014-01-01

    Deep cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are required to mitigate climate change. However, there is low willingness amongst the public to prioritise climate policies for reducing emissions. Here we show that the extent to which Australians are prepared to reduce their country's CO2 emissions is greater when the costs to future national income are framed as a “foregone-gain”—incomes rise in the future but not by as much as in the absence of emission cuts—rather than as a “loss”—incomes decrease relative to the baseline expected future levels (Studies 1 & 2). The provision of a normative message identifying Australia as one of the world's largest CO2 emitters did not increase the amount by which individuals were prepared to reduce emissions (Study 1), whereas a normative message revealing the emission policy preferences of other Australians did (Study 2). The results suggest that framing the costs of reducing emissions as a smaller increase in future income and communicating normative information about others' emission policy preferences are effective methods for leveraging public support for emission cuts. PMID:25501009

  20. CO2 emissions mitigation and fossil fuel markets: Dynamic and international aspects of climate policies

    SciTech Connect

    Bauer, Nico; Bosetti, Valentina; Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem; Kitous, Alban; McCollum, David; Mejean, Aurelie; Rao, Shilpa; Turton, Hal; Paroussos, Leonidas; Ashina, Shuichi; Calvin, Katherine V.; Wada, Kenichi; Van Vuuren, Detlef

    2015-01-01

    This paper explores a multi-model scenario ensemble to assess the impacts of idealized and non-idealized climate change stabilization policies on fossil fuel markets. Under idealized conditions climate policies significantly reduce coal use in the short- and long-term. Reductions in oil and gas use are much smaller, particularly until 2030, but revenues decrease much more because oil and gas prices are higher and decrease with mitigation. A first deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes global emission targets until 2030, in accordance with the Copenhagen pledges and regionally-specific low-carbon technology targets. Fossil fuel markets revert back to the no-policy case: though coal use increases strongest, revenue gains are higher for oil and gas. To balance the carbon budget over the 21st century, the long-term reallocation of fossil fuels is significantly larger - twice and more - than the short-term distortion. This amplifying effect results from coal lock-in and inter-fuel substitution effects. The second deviation from the optimal transition pathway relaxes the global participation assumption. The result here is less clear cut across models, as we find carbon leakage effects ranging from positive to negative because leakage and substitution patterns of coal, oil, and gas differ. In summary, distortions of fossil fuel markets resulting from relaxed short-term global emission targets are more important and less uncertain than the issue of carbon leakage from early mover action.

  1. Land cover or climate? In search of dominant factors inducing groundwater recharge and fen hydrology in European scale

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grygoruk, Mateusz; Kotowski, Wiktor

    2016-04-01

    Groundwater recharge plays the crucial role in development and stability of fens. It was hypothesized that the mid- and late-Holocene acceleration of fens' development in Europe could have been induced by changes in land cover: decreasing areas of forests resulting from the expanding agriculture have enhanced groundwater recharge by decreasing evapotranspiration and interception and promoting infiltration. However, regardless human-related changes of the landscape, recorded climatic fluctuations could also be considered as drivers of changing groundwater recharge that affects fen stability and development. Nowadays, when up to 90% of European wetlands is considered degraded, assessing vulnerability of groundwater recharge to changing landscape and climate is of the crucial importance for setting fen restoration and management strategies. Main goal of our study was to assess the magnitude of changes in groundwater recharge estimation resulting from modelled changes of the landscape and climatic features in >300 fens located in Poland, Germany, The Netherlands, Sweden, UK and Norway. In our approach we (1) delineated the most probable extents of catchments of particular fens analysed, (2) assumed hypothetical and the most probable changes of land cover within these catchments, (3) assumed the most probable ranges of climatic changes in each of the catchments including historical reconstructions (Holocene) and future projections (A1B scenario, CSIRO:MK3 and UKMO:HADCM3 GCM-RCM ensembles), (4) developed, tested and calibrated automatic, GIS-based groundwater recharge calculation algorithm to be applied in the study, (5) calculated groundwater recharge in multiple probable combinations of landscape and climatic conditions and (6) performed statistical analysis in order to reveal whether the climate or landscape changes were the dominant factors that could have probably influenced groundwater recharge in catchments of fens analysed. We revealed that in the case of 80% of

  2. Climate Risk and Production Shocks: Using Index Insurance to Link Climate Science to Policy for Sustainable Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCarney, G. R.; Osgood, D. E.

    2011-12-01

    Smallholder farmers in developing countries are often severely impacted by droughts and other climate related events. However, agricultural insurance programs are largely unavailable in lower-income countries because of limitations in traditional loss-based indemnity insurance. As a result, it is often the case that farmers who are the most vulnerable to climate shocks lack access to the insurance tools that could help to reduce their production risk. Index insurance, a recent financial innovation, has the potential to increase access to insurance for smallholder farmers (Barrett et al. 2007). Index insurance allows farmers to insure their production risk based on a weather index (such as total seasonal rainfall) rather than on crop yields. The use of a weather index addresses many of the perverse incentive problems found in traditional crop insurance, and greatly reduces the costs of insuring smallholder farmers. The trade-off in index insurance, however, is limited accuracy in calibrating payouts to actual losses, a phenomenon commonly known as basis risk. While index insurance has promise as a risk-smoothing instrument, many argue it has greater promise as a mechanism for improving access to credit for smallholder farmers in developing countries (e.g. Barnett, Barrett & Skees 2008). In these areas, farmers are often fully exposed to climate shocks, which greatly affect their willingness to borrow. By smoothing the uncertainty in climate shocks, insurance may allow farmers to take credit for productive risks. There has been much discussion as to the optimal strategy for combining index insurance with credit, specifically if the financial institutions or the individual farmers themselves should hold the insurance policy. Many existing insurance implementations insure the farmer directly. However, since a weather index is a proxy for yield loss based on regional data, there is basis risk due to uninsured idiosyncratic differences between farmers. As a response to

  3. Groundwater Management Policies for Maintaining Stream Flow Given Variable Climatic Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pohll, G.; Carroll, R. W.; Brozovic, N.

    2012-12-01

    Groundwater is an important resource to agriculture throughout the semi-arid United States, where farmers often supplement surface water diversions with groundwater pumping. Understanding the complex exchange over space and time between rivers and aquifers is important in developing management alternatives that are capable of preserving stream flow for habitat and increasing water deliveries downstream while minimizing lost crop production. Previous integrated hydrologic-economic models have generally assumed superposition of the impacts of groundwater pumping on the hydrologic system for analytical tractability. Although this assumption may be reasonable for some surface water-groundwater systems, in many systems the behavior diverges considerably from the linear assumption. We present analyses using an integrated hydrologic-economic model of surface water-groundwater interaction with nonlinear dynamics, developed for the Mason Valley area in Nevada. The study area has active water conflict between upstream and downstream water users, where groundwater pumping has an important impact on streamflow. The model replicates the movement of water throughout the coupled river and aquifer of the Walker River system and is used to analyze hypothetical tradeoffs between increasing streamflow at the basin outlet and meeting crop water demands for irrigation. The model is run from 1997 to 2006 to capture wet and dry climatic conditions, including a four year drought period in which groundwater pumping accounts for more than 50% of the irrigated water budget. Three alternate groundwater management policies are analyzed to compare economic performance (resulting from reductions in crop area due to reduced groundwater pumping) and hydrologic impact (in terms of increased stream discharge at the basin outlet). First, uniform pumping quotas are the simplest policy to implement and are modeled here as equal reductions in groundwater pumping for each stakeholder at a lumped field

  4. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions – Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras

    PubMed Central

    Liebergesell, Mario; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J. Hans C.; Peñuelas, Josep

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

  5. Functional Resilience against Climate-Driven Extinctions - Comparing the Functional Diversity of European and North American Tree Floras.

    PubMed

    Liebergesell, Mario; Reu, Björn; Stahl, Ulrike; Freiberg, Martin; Welk, Erik; Kattge, Jens; Cornelissen, J Hans C; Peñuelas, Josep; Wirth, Christian

    2016-01-01

    Future global change scenarios predict a dramatic loss of biodiversity for many regions in the world, potentially reducing the resistance and resilience of ecosystem functions. Once before, during Plio-Pleistocene glaciations, harsher climatic conditions in Europe as compared to North America led to a more depauperate tree flora. Here we hypothesize that this climate driven species loss has also reduced functional diversity in Europe as compared to North America. We used variation in 26 traits for 154 North American and 66 European tree species and grid-based co-occurrences derived from distribution maps to compare functional diversity patterns of the two continents. First, we identified similar regions with respect to contemporary climate in the temperate zone of North America and Europe. Second, we compared the functional diversity of both continents and for the climatically similar sub-regions using the functional dispersion-index (FDis) and the functional richness index (FRic). Third, we accounted in these comparisons for grid-scale differences in species richness, and, fourth, investigated the associated trait spaces using dimensionality reduction. For gymnosperms we find similar functional diversity on both continents, whereas for angiosperms functional diversity is significantly greater in Europe than in North America. These results are consistent across different scales, for climatically similar regions and considering species richness patterns. We decomposed these differences in trait space occupation into differences in functional diversity vs. differences in functional identity. We show that climate-driven species loss on a continental scale might be decoupled from or at least not linearly related to changes in functional diversity. This might be important when analyzing the effects of climate-driven biodiversity change on ecosystem functioning. PMID:26848836

  6. Prediction of soil and ground water contamination with fungicides of different classes according to soil and climate conditions in Ukrain and other European countries.

    PubMed

    Vavrinevych, O; Antonenko, A; Omelchuk, S; Korshun, M; Bardov, V

    2015-05-01

    It was established that most of tested pesticides are moderately and low persistent in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine, but more stable in Western and Northern Europe countries due to peculiarities of their climate type and soil characteristics. In addition, it was determined that all studied fungicides pertain to non- and low mobile compound (except moderately mobile pyrimethanil). Recommendations on application of studied fungicides in soil and climatic conditions of Ukraine and other European countries were given. PMID:26042452

  7. Climate-physiographically differentiated Pan-European landslide susceptibility assessment using spatial multi-criteria evaluation and transnational landslide information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Günther, Andreas; Van Den Eeckhaut, Miet; Malet, Jean-Philippe; Reichenbach, Paola; Hervás, Javier

    2014-11-01

    With the adoption of the EU Thematic Strategy for Soil Protection in 2006, small-scale (1:1 M) assessments of threats affecting soils over Europe received increasing attention. As landslides have been recognized as one of eight threats requiring a Pan-European evaluation, we present an approach for landslide susceptibility evaluation at the continental scale over Europe. Unlike previous continental and global scale landslide susceptibility studies not utilizing spatial information on the events, we collected more than 102,000 landslide locations in 22 European countries. These landslides are heterogeneously distributed over Europe, but are indispensable for the evaluation and classification of Pan-European datasets used as spatial predictors, and the validation of the resulting assessments. For the analysis we subdivided the European territory into seven different climate-physiographical zones by combining morphometric and climatic data for terrain differentiation, and adding a coastal zone defined as a 1 km strip inland from the coastline. Landslide susceptibility modeling was performed for each zone using heuristic spatial multicriteria evaluations supported by analytical hierarchy processes, and validated with the inventory data using the receiver operating characteristics. In contrast to purely data-driven statistical modeling techniques, our semi-quantitative approach is capable to introduce expert knowledge into the analysis, which is indispensable considering quality and resolution of the input data, and incompleteness and bias in the inventory information. The reliability of the resulting susceptibility map ELSUS 1000 Version 1 (1 km resolution) was examined on an administrative terrain unit level in areas with landslide information and through the comparison with available national susceptibility zonations. These evaluations suggest that although the ELSUS 1000 is capable for a correct synoptic prediction of landslide susceptibility in the majority of the

  8. A compilation of Western European terrestrial records 60-8 ka BP: towards an understanding of latitudinal climatic gradients

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreno, Ana; Svensson, Anders; Brooks, Stephen J.; Connor, Simon; Engels, Stefan; Fletcher, William; Genty, Dominique; Heiri, Oliver; Labuhn, Inga; Perşoiu, Aurel; Peyron, Odile; Sadori, Laura; Valero-Garcés, Blas; Wulf, Sabine; Zanchetta, Giovanni

    2014-12-01

    Terrestrial records of past climatic conditions, such as lake sediments and speleothems, provide data of great importance for understanding environmental changes. However, unlike marine and ice core records, terrestrial palaeodata are often not available in databases or in a format that is easily accessible to the non-specialist. As a consequence, many excellent terrestrial records are unknown to the broader palaeoclimate community and are not included in compilations, comparisons, or modelling exercises. Here we present a compilation of Western European terrestrial palaeo-records covering, entirely or partially, the 60-8-ka INTIMATE time period. The compilation contains 56 natural archives, including lake records, speleothems, ice cores, and terrestrial proxies in marine records. The compilation is limited to include records of high temporal resolution and/or records that provide climate proxies or quantitative reconstructions of environmental parameters, such as temperature or precipitation, and that are of relevance and interest to a broader community. We briefly review the different types of terrestrial archives, their respective proxies, their interpretation and their application for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. We also discuss the importance of independent chronologies and the issue of record synchronization. The aim of this exercise is to provide the wider palaeo-community with a consistent compilation of high-quality terrestrial records, to facilitate model-data comparisons, and to identify key areas of interest for future investigations. We use the compilation to investigate Western European latitudinal climate gradients during the deglacial period and, despite of poorly constrained chronologies for the older records, we summarize the main results obtained from NW and SW European terrestrial records before the LGM.

  9. Don't shoot the messenger: re-framing climate policy to respond to evolving science (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Allen, M. R.; Otto, F. E.; Otto, A.; Rayner, S.

    2013-12-01

    Lack of progress in mitigation policy, as atmospheric CO2 concentrations climb apparently inexorably past 400ppm, is often blamed on a failure to 'communicate the climate change message' effectively. A small but increasing number of commentators is arguing that the problem is not communication, but the way in which climate policy choices are framed. In particular, the overt politicization of climate science, with so-called 'belief in climate change' being invoked as automatically implying support for a global carbon price or cap-and-trade regime, or even as an argument for voting for specific parties, makes it increasingly difficult to discuss policy options in the light of evolving science. At the heart of the problem is the interpretation of the 'precautionary principle', which is widely invoked in climate policy as a response to scientific uncertainty: policies, it is argued, should be designed to be robust to the range of possible future climates, or to deliver the ';best' possible probability-weighted outcome. The problem with this approach is that it very often makes policy contingent on worst-case scenarios - such as the risk of high climate sensitivity or rapid non-linear climate change - which are often the most uncertain aspects of climate science and hence subject to frequent revision. To be relevant to policies that are based on mitigating worst-case risks, the scientific community is also required to focus on establishing what these risks are, leaving it open, unjustly but understandably, to the accusation of alarmism. Focusing on worst-case scenarios can also give the impression that the mitigation problem is unachievable, and the only option is short-term adaptation followed by geo-engineering. One way of reducing the politicization of climate science is to make policy explicitly contingent on the climate response, such that a high (or low) rate of anthropogenic warming over the coming decades is automatically met with an aggressive (or moderate

  10. Worker health is good for the economy: union density and psychosocial safety climate as determinants of country differences in worker health and productivity in 31 European countries.

    PubMed

    Dollard, Maureen F; Neser, Daniel Y

    2013-09-01

    Work stress is recognized globally as a social determinant of worker health. Therefore we explored whether work stress related factors explained national differences in health and productivity (gross domestic product (GDP)). We proposed a national worker health productivity model whereby macro market power factors (i.e. union density), influence national worker health and GDP via work psychosocial factors and income inequality. We combined five different data sets canvasing 31 wealthy European countries. Aggregated worker self-reported health accounted for 13 per cent of the variance in national life expectancy and in national gross domestic product (GDP). The most important factors explaining worker self-reported health and GDP between nations were two levels of labor protection, macro-level (union density), and organizational-level (psychosocial safety climate, PSC, i.e. the extent of management concern for worker psychological health). The majority of countries with the highest levels of union density and PSC (i.e., workplace protections) were Social Democratic in nature (i.e., Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Norway). Results support a type of society explanation that social and economic factors (e.g., welfare regimes, work related policies) in concert with political power agents at a national level explain in part national differences in workplace protection (PSC) that are important for worker health and productivity. Attention should be given across all countries, to national policies to improve worker health, by bolstering national and local democratic processes and representation to address and implement policies for psychosocial risk factors for work stress, bullying and violence. Results suggest worker health is good for the economy, and should be considered in national health and productivity accounting. Eroding unionism may not be good for worker health or the economy either. PMID:23849285

  11. Between Too Little and Too Late: Political Opportunity Costs in Climate Policy Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; Vandenbergh, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Discussion of climate policy has focused almost exclusively on comprehensive regulatory instruments to price emissions with tradeable permits or emissions taxes. More recently, a number of proposals have been advanced to abandon comprehensive emissions pricing in favor of focusing exclusively on clean-energy innovation. Neither approach adequately accounts for the combination of timing and scale. Advocates of emissions pricing are persuasive that this is the most likely way to reduce emissions sufficiently to stabilize greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at desirable levels. However, as innovation advocates point out, the political climate is inhospitable to such sweeping regulations and it is unlikely that comprehensive carbon pricing can be enacted and implemented in the next decade. However, clean-energy innovation by itself is a high-stakes gamble that may fail to reduce emissions sufficiently to stabilize GHG concentrations, and may reduce support for the kind of comprehensive pricing measures that could stabilize GHG concentrations.We propose that analysis of climate policies take account of the opportunity costs associated with the process of enacting a proposed policy: If one measure is much more controversial than another, how does the difference in time necessary to persuade the public and legislators to adopt them affect their ultimate impact? As General Patton is reputed to have said, "A good solution applied with vigor now is better than a perfect solution applied ten minutes later." Similarly, it is important to consider whether adopting one measure would build or erode support for complementary ones. As an example, we consider the largely neglected role of nonregulatory measures, such as private governance and household-level behavior change, as examples of actions that could buy time by producing rapid, although modest, impacts without eroding support for more comprehensive measures later on.

  12. Untangling the confusion around land carbon science and climate change mitigation policy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackey, Brendan; Prentice, I. Colin; Steffen, Will; House, Joanna I.; Lindenmayer, David; Keith, Heather; Berry, Sandra

    2013-06-01

    Depletion of ecosystem carbon stocks is a significant source of atmospheric CO2 and reducing land-based emissions and maintaining land carbon stocks contributes to climate change mitigation. We summarize current understanding about human perturbation of the global carbon cycle, examine three scientific issues and consider implications for the interpretation of international climate change policy decisions, concluding that considering carbon storage on land as a means to 'offset' CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels (an idea with wide currency) is scientifically flawed. The capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to store carbon is finite and the current sequestration potential pr