Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brook, Marx

1991-01-01

The emergence of 24 hr operational lightning detection networks has led to the finding that positive lightning strokes, although still much fewer in number than the normal negative strokes, are present in summer and winter storms. Recent papers address the importance of understanding the meteorological conditions which lead to a dominance of one polarity of stroke over another; the appearance of positive strokes at the end of a storm appeared to presage the end-of-storm downdraft and subsidence leading to downburst activity. It is beginning to appear that positive strokes may be important meteorological indicators. Significant research accomplishments on the following topics are addressed: (1) a study to verify that the black boxes used in the lightning networks to detect both negative and positive strokes to ground were accurate; (2) the use of slow tails to determine the polarity of distant lightning; (3) lightning initiation in winter vs. summer storms; (4) the upgrade of sensors for the measurement of electric field signals associated with lightning; (5) the analysis of lightning flash records from storms between 40 and 125 km from the sensor; and (6) an interesting aspect of the initiation process which involves the physical processes driving the stepped leader. The focus of current research and future research plans are presented.

Impacts of winter storms on air-sea gas exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiqing; Perrie, Will; Vagle, Svein

2006-07-01

The objective of this study is to investigate air-sea gas exchange during winter storms, using field measurements from Ocean Station Papa in the Northeast Pacific (50°N, 145°W). We show that increasing gas transfer rates are coincident with increasing winds and deepening depth of bubble penetration, and that this process depends on sea state. Wave-breaking is shown to be an important factor in the gas transfer velocity during the peaks of the storms, increasing the flux rates by up to 20%. Gas transfer rates and concentrations can exhibit asymmetry, reflecting a sudden increase with the onset of a storm, and gradual recovery stages.

Satellite Video Shows Movement of Major U.S. Winter Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-12

A new NASA video of NOAA's GOES satellite imagery shows three days of movement of the massive winter storm that stretches from the southern U.S. to the northeast. Visible and infrared imagery from NOAA's GOES-East or GOES-13 satellite from Feb. 10 at 1815 UTC/1:15 p.m. EST to Feb. 12 to 1845 UTC/1:45 p.m. EST were compiled into a video made by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. In the video, viewers can see the development and movement of the clouds associated with the progression of the frontal system and related low pressure areas that make up the massive storm. The video also shows the snow covered ground over the Great Lakes region and Ohio Valley that stretches to northern New England. The clouds and fallen snow data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. On February 12 at 10 a.m. EST, NOAA's National Weather Service or NWS continued to issue watches and warnings from Texas to New England. Specifically, NWS cited Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories were in effect from eastern Texas eastward across the interior section of southeastern U.S. states and across much of the eastern seaboard including the Appalachians. Winter storm watches are in effect for portions of northern New England as well as along the western slopes of northern and central Appalachians. For updates on local forecasts, watches and warnings, visit NOAA's www.weather.gov webpage. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center or WPC noted the storm is expected to bring "freezing rain spreading into the Carolinas, significant snow accumulations are expected in the interior Mid-Atlantic states tonight into Thursday and ice storm warnings and freezing rain advisories are in effect across much of central Georgia. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous

Modelling the economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Martius, Olivia; Brönnimann, Stefan

2014-05-01

Severe winter storms such as "Vivian" in February 1990 and "Lothar" in December 1999 are among the most destructive meteorological hazards in Switzerland. Disaster severity resulting from such windstorms is attributable, on the one hand, to hazardous weather conditions such as high wind gust speeds; and on the other hand to socio-economic factors such as population density, distribution of values at risk, and damage susceptibility. For present-day winter storms, the data basis is generally good to describe the meteorological development and wind forces as well as the associated socio-economic impacts. In contrast, the information on historic windstorms is overall sparse and the available historic weather and loss reports mostly do not provide quantitative information. This study illustrates a promising technique to simulate the economic impacts of both historic and present winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our approach makes use of the novel Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) spanning 1871-present. The 2-degree spatial resolution of the global 20CR dataset is relatively coarse. Thus, the complex orography of Switzerland is not realistically represented, which has considerable ramifications for the representation of wind systems that are strongly influenced by the local orography, such as Föhn winds. Therefore, a dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was performed, for in total 40 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871. Based on the downscaled wind gust speeds and the climada loss model, the estimated economic losses were calculated at municipality level for current economic and social conditions. With this approach, we find an answer to the question what would be the economic losses of e.g. a hazardous Föhn storm - which occurred in northern Switzerland in February 1925 - today, i.e. under current socio-economic conditions. Encouragingly, the pattern of

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms

PubMed Central

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-01-01

Introduction: This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Methods: Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. Results: Results indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Discussion: Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced. PMID:25685629

Snow Tweets: Emergency Information Dissemination in a US County During 2014 Winter Storms.

PubMed

Bonnan-White, Jess; Shulman, Jason; Bielecke, Abigail

2014-12-22

This paper describes how American federal, state, and local organizations created, sourced, and disseminated emergency information via social media in preparation for several winter storms in one county in the state of New Jersey (USA). Postings submitted to Twitter for three winter storm periods were collected from selected organizations, along with a purposeful sample of select private local users. Storm-related posts were analyzed for stylistic features (hashtags, retweet mentions, embedded URLs). Sharing and re-tweeting patterns were also mapped using NodeXL. RESULTS indicate emergency management entities were active in providing preparedness and response information during the selected winter weather events. A large number of posts, however, did not include unique Twitter features that maximize dissemination and discovery by users. Visual representations of interactions illustrate opportunities for developing stronger relationships among agencies. Whereas previous research predominantly focuses on large-scale national or international disaster contexts, the current study instead provides needed analysis in a small-scale context. With practice during localized events like extreme weather, effective information dissemination in large events can be enhanced.

Applying stochastic small-scale damage functions to German winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-03-01

Analyzing insurance-loss data we derive stochastic storm-damage functions for residential buildings. On district level we fit power-law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, typically spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated exponents for 439 German districts roughly range from 8 to 12. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data, which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 3 independent parameters for each district. A Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages in Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitudes.

Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E.; Gachon, P., Sr.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2017-12-01

This study describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into extratropical cyclone (EC) activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981 - 2005) is firstly considered using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European global reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) used to drive the Canadian RCM - version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological EC track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while their intensity is well captured. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over the eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence from GCMs over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with main relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value from the CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Finally, time period near the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) is considered to analyze EC characteristic trends and changes relative to the current climate conditions, showing important modifications in storm activity for certain winter months, especially in term of intensity over the eastern coast.

Performance Comparison of the European Storm Surge Models and Chaotic Model in Forecasting Extreme Storm Surges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siek, M. B.; Solomatine, D. P.

2009-04-01

Storm surge modeling has rapidly developed considerably over the past 30 years. A number of significant advances on operational storm surge models have been implemented and tested, consisting of: refining computational grids, calibrating the model, using a better numerical scheme (i.e. more realistic model physics for air-sea interaction), implementing data assimilation and ensemble model forecasts. This paper addresses the performance comparison between the existing European storm surge models and the recently developed methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory in forecasting storm surge dynamics. The chaotic model is built using adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbours in the reconstructed phase space of observed time series data. The comparison focused on the model accuracy in forecasting a recently extreme storm surge in the North Sea on November 9th, 2007 that hit the coastlines of several European countries. The combination of a high tide, north-westerly winds exceeding 50 mph and low pressure produced an exceptional storm tide. The tidal level was exceeded 3 meters above normal sea levels. Flood warnings were issued for the east coast of Britain and the entire Dutch coast. The Maeslant barrier's two arc-shaped steel doors in the Europe's biggest port of Rotterdam was closed for the first time since its construction in 1997 due to this storm surge. In comparison to the chaotic model performance, the forecast data from several European physically-based storm surge models were provided from: BSH Germany, DMI Denmark, DNMI Norway, KNMI Netherlands and MUMM Belgium. The performance comparison was made over testing datasets for two periods/conditions: non-stormy period (1-Sep-2007 till 14-Oct-2007) and stormy period (15-Oct-2007 till 20-Nov-2007). A scalar chaotic model with optimized parameters was developed by utilizing an hourly training dataset of observations (11-Sep-2005 till 31-Aug-2007). The comparison results indicated the chaotic

Tree-ring record of droughts and severe winter storms in the Ouachita Mountains since 1745

Treesearch

Douglas J. Stevenson; Thomas B. Lynch; James M. Guldin

2015-01-01

Severe winter storms cause serious damage to trees, timber, power lines, and transportation systems each year. In the Ouachita Mountains, historical records of these storms extend back only 117 years, and many of them are of low-quality or have missing data.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Direct observations of atmosphere - sea ice - ocean interactions during Arctic winter and spring storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, R. M.; Itkin, P.; Granskog, M. A.; Assmy, P.; Cohen, L.; Duarte, P.; Doble, M. J.; Fransson, A.; Fer, I.; Fernandez Mendez, M.; Frey, M. M.; Gerland, S.; Haapala, J. J.; Hudson, S. R.; Liston, G. E.; Merkouriadi, I.; Meyer, A.; Muilwijk, M.; Peterson, A.; Provost, C.; Randelhoff, A.; Rösel, A.; Spreen, G.; Steen, H.; Smedsrud, L. H.; Sundfjord, A.

2017-12-01

To study the thinner and younger sea ice that now dominates the Arctic the Norwegian Young Sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) was launched in the ice-covered region north of Svalbard, from January to June 2015. During this time, eight local and remote storms affected the region and rare direct observations of the atmosphere, snow, ice and ocean were conducted. Six of these winter storms passed directly over the expedition and resulted in air temperatures rising from below -30oC to near 0oC, followed by abrupt cooling. Substantial snowfall prior to the campaign had already formed a snow pack of approximately 50 cm, to which the February storms contributed an additional 6 cm. The deep snow layer effectively isolated the ice cover and prevented bottom ice growth resulting in low brine fluxes. Peak wind speeds during winter storms exceeded 20 m/s, causing strong snow re-distribution, release of sea salt aerosol and sea ice deformation. The heavy snow load caused widespread negative freeboard; during sea ice deformation events, level ice floes were flooded by sea water, and at least 6-10 cm snow-ice layer was formed. Elevated deformation rates during the most powerful winter storms damaged the ice cover permanently such that the response to wind forcing increased by 60 %. As a result of a remote storm in April deformation processes opened about 4 % of the total area into leads with open water, while a similar amount of ice was deformed into pressure ridges. The strong winds also enhanced ocean mixing and increased ocean heat fluxes three-fold in the pycnocline from 4 to 12 W/m2. Ocean heat fluxes were extremely large (over 300 W/m2) during storms in regions where the warm Atlantic inflow is located close to surface over shallow topography. This resulted in very large (5-25 cm/day) bottom ice melt and in cases flooding due to heavy snow load. Storm events increased the carbon dioxide exchange between the atmosphere and ocean but also affected the pCO2 in surface waters

Links between North Atlantic atmospheric blocking and recent trends in European winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Joyce, Terrence

2015-04-01

European precipitation has sustained robust trends during wintertime (January - March) over recent decades. Central, western, and northern Europe have become wetter by an average 0.1-0.3% per annum for the period 1901-2010, while southern Europe, including the Iberian Peninsula, much of Italy and the Balkan States, has sustained drying of -0.2% per annum or more over the same period. The overall pattern is consistent across different observational precipitation products, while the magnitude of the precipitation trends varies amongst data sets. Using cluster analysis, which identifies recurrent states (or regimes) of European winter precipitation by grouping them according to an objective similarity criterion, changes in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns over the past century are evaluated. Considerable multi-decadal variability exists in the frequency of dominant winter precipitation patterns: more recent decades are characterised by significantly fewer winters with anomalous wet conditions over southern, western, and central Europe. In contrast, winters with dry conditions in western and southern Europe, but above-average rainfall in western Scandinavia and the northern British Isles, have been more common recently. We evaluate the associated multi-decadal large-scale circulation changes across the broader extratropical North Atlantic region, which accompany the observed wintertime precipitation variability using the 20th Century reanalysis product. Some influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in modulating the frequency of dominant precipitation patterns. However, recent trends in the characteristics of atmospheric blocking across the North Atlantic sector indicate a change in the dominant blocking centres (near Greenland, the British Isles, and west of the Iberian Peninsula). Associated changes in sea level pressure, storm track position and strength, and oceanic heat fluxes across the North Atlantic region are also

New Method for Estimating Landslide Losses for Major Winter Storms in California.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wills, C. J.; Perez, F. G.; Branum, D.

2014-12-01

We have developed a prototype system for estimating the economic costs of landslides due to winter storms in California. This system uses some of the basic concepts and estimates of the value of structures from the HAZUS program developed for FEMA. Using the only relatively complete landslide loss data set that we could obtain, data gathered by the City of Los Angeles in 1978, we have developed relations between landslide susceptibility and loss ratio for private property (represented as the value of wood frame structures from HAZUS). The landslide loss ratios estimated from the Los Angeles data are calibrated using more generalized data from the 1982 storms in the San Francisco Bay area to develop relationships that can be used to estimate loss for any value of 2-day or 30-day rainfall averaged over a county. The current estimates for major storms are long projections from very small data sets, subject to very large uncertainties, so provide a very rough estimate of the landslide damage to structures and infrastructure on hill slopes. More importantly, the system can be extended and improved with additional data and used to project landslide losses in future major winter storms. The key features of this system—the landslide susceptibility map, the relationship between susceptibility and loss ratio, and the calibration of estimates against losses in past storms—can all be improved with additional data. Most importantly, this study highlights the importance of comprehensive studies of landslide damage. Detailed surveys of landslide damage following future storms that include locations and amounts of damage for all landslides within an area are critical for building a well-calibrated system to project future landslide losses. Without an investment in post-storm landslide damage surveys, it will not be possible to improve estimates of the magnitude or distribution of landslide damage, which can range up to billions of dollars.

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Satellite Sees Major Winter Storm Ready to Wallop Mid-Atlantic

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-03-02

A major winter storm is poised to wallop the Mid-Atlantic and bring large amounts of snow to cities including Baltimore, Md., Washington, D.C. area on March 2 and 3, according to NOAA's National Weather Service. NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured this image of the clouds associated with the winter storm as it continued moving east toward those cities. On March 2, the National Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md. noted that there is a slight risk for severe thunderstorms over parts of the western Gulf Coast and the Lower Mississippi Valley as a result of the southern portion of the system. The update at 7 a.m. EST noted that freezing rain/sleet is possible over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the central Appalachians, while eastern Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley are expected to experience heavy rain. The NWS Short Range Forecast Discussion stated "A strong storm over the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley will advance northeastward along a quasi-stationary front to off the Southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will overrun and pool along the associated front producing an area of snow extending from the Central Plains into the Northeast." The clouds are associated with a cold from that stretches from eastern Maine through Maryland and west into the Tennessee Valley. The low pressure center associated with the front was located over Arkansas. At NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data created the entire picture of the position of this major winter storm. GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary

View from Space Shows Winter Storm Sweep Over U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-03-05

A winter storm was bringing snow, sleet and freezing rain from lower Mississippi Valley to Northeastern U.S. on Thursday, March 5, 2015. A new NASA animation of NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery showed the progression of the clouds associated with the storm system that triggered winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories from the southern Plains eastward through the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. The system also triggered flood warnings along and to the west of the central Appalachians. An animation of GOES satellite visible and infrared imagery from March 3 through March 5 showed clouds associated with a cold front push over U.S. East coast. Behind the front, Arctic air is expected to drop low temperatures into the single numbers from Washington, D.C. to Minnesota overnight. Temperatures in the Carolinas and Tennessee are expected to drop to the low 20s. NOAA's National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center (NWS NPC) in College Park, Maryland noted "a strong cold front moving across the eastern U.S. will bring heavy snow from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Northeast today (March 5) with rain, freezing rain and sleet possible from parts of the lower Mississippi Valley across the Southeast to the southern Mid-Atlantic. Snowfall totals of 5 to 10 inches are possible for some areas. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect from Texas to Nantucket." The animation ends at 17:45 UTC (12:45 p.m. EST). Before the end of the animation, the low pressure center along an arctic frontal boundary was nearly stationary over western North Carolina at 9 a.m. EST on March 5, according to the NWS NPC. NWS radar and surface observations indicated an extended swath of precipitation from near the Texas Gulf Coast through the interior eastern U.S. into southern New England. NPC's storm summary noted at that time "rain was changing to sleet/freezing rain and to all snow along a band within this swath as colder air continues to filter in from the north. Some

Diagnosis and Modeling of the Explosive Development of Winter Storms: Sensitivity to PBL Schemes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Pradhan, Prabodha K.

2014-05-01

The correct representation of extreme windstorms in regional models is of great importance for impact studies of climate change. The Iberian Peninsula has recently witnessed major damage from winter extratropical intense cyclones like Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010) and Gong (January 2013) which formed over the mid-Atlantic, experienced explosive intensification while travelling eastwards at lower latitudes than usual [Liberato et al. 2011; 2013]. In this paper the explosive development of these storms is simulated by the advanced mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF v 3.4.1), initialized with NCEP Final Analysis (FNL) data as initial and lateral boundary conditions (boundary conditions updated in every 3 hours intervals). The simulation experiments are conducted with two domains, a coarser (25km) and nested (8.333km), covering the entire North Atlantic and Iberian Peninsula region. The characteristics of these storms (e.g. wind speed, precipitation) are studied from WRF model and compared with multiple observations. In this context simulations with different Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) schemes are performed. This approach aims at understanding which mechanisms favor the explosive intensification of these storms at a lower than usual latitudes, thus improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics (including small-scale processes) on controlling the life cycle of midlatitude extreme storms and contributing to the improvement in predictability and in our ability to forecast storms' impacts over Iberian Peninsula. Acknowledgments: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). References: Liberato M.L.R., J.G. Pinto, I.F. Trigo, R.M. Trigo (2011) Klaus - an

Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929-2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ribera, P.; Gallego, D.; Pena-Ortiz, C.; Del Rio, L.; Plomaritis, T. A.; Benavente, J.

2011-06-01

This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

Satellite Views Powerful Winter Storm Battering Mid-Atlantic and New England

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-13

The monster winter storm that brought icing to the U.S. southeast moved northward along the Eastern Seaboard and brought snow, sleet and rain from the Mid-Atlantic to New England on February 13. A new image from NOAA's GOES satellite showed clouds associated with the massive winter storm stretch from the U.S. southeast to the northeast. Data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite taken on Feb. 13 at 1455 UTC/9:45 a.m. EST were made into an image by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The clouds and fallen snow data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites.The image showed that the clouds associated with the storm were blanketing much of the U.S. East Coast. At 3:11 a.m. EST, a surface map issued by the National Weather Service or NWS showed the storm's low pressure area was centered over eastern North Carolina. Since then, the low has continued to track north along the eastern seaboard. By 11 a.m. EST, precipitation from the storm was falling from South Carolina to Maine, according to National Weather Service radar. By 11 a.m. EST, the Washington, D.C. region snow and sleet totals ranged from 3" in far eastern Maryland to over 18" in the northern and western suburbs in Maryland and Virginia. NWS reported that snow, sleet and rain were still falling and more snow is expected as the back side of the low moves into the region. The New York City region remained under an NWS Winter Storm Warning until 6 a.m. on Friday, February 14 and the National Weather Service expects minor coastal impacts Thursday into Friday afternoon. New England was also being battered by the storm. At 10:56 a.m. EST, Barnstable, Mass. on Cape Cod was experiencing rain and winds gusting to 28 mph. An NWS wind advisory is in effect for Cape Cod until 7 p.m. EST. Further north

Application of an extreme winter storm scenario to identify vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the Sierra Nevada mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Dettinger, Michael; McCarthy, Maureen; Schaller, Kevin D.; Wellborn, Toby; Cox, Dale A.

2016-01-01

In the Sierra Nevada mountains (USA), and geographically similar areas across the globe where human development is expanding, extreme winter storm and flood risks are expected to increase with changing climate, heightening the need for communities to assess risks and better prepare for such events. In this case study, we demonstrate a novel approach to examining extreme winter storm and flood risks. We incorporated high-resolution atmospheric–hydrologic modeling of the ARkStorm extreme winter storm scenario with multiple modes of engagement with practitioners, including a series of facilitated discussions and a tabletop emergency management exercise, to develop a regional assessment of extreme storm vulnerabilities, mitigation options, and science needs in the greater Lake Tahoe region of Northern Nevada and California, USA. Through this process, practitioners discussed issues of concern across all phases of the emergency management life cycle, including preparation, response, recovery, and mitigation. Interruption of transportation, communications, and interagency coordination were among the most pressing concerns, and specific approaches for addressing these issues were identified, including prepositioning resources, diversifying communications systems, and improving coordination among state, tribal, and public utility practitioners. Science needs included expanding real-time monitoring capabilities to improve the precision of meteorological models and enhance situational awareness, assessing vulnerabilities of critical infrastructure, and conducting cost–benefit analyses to assess opportunities to improve both natural and human-made infrastructure to better withstand extreme storms. Our approach and results can be used to support both land use and emergency planning activities aimed toward increasing community resilience to extreme winter storm hazards in mountainous regions.

NASA Sees Major Winter Storm Headed for Eastern U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Jan. 20 at 2:30 p.m. EST the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP captured this image of the winter storm moving through the central U.S. Credits: NASA Goddard Rapid Response The low pressure area from the Eastern Pacific Ocean moved into the western U.S. and tracked across the four corners region into Texas where NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite observed the clouds associated with the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP satellite captured the visible image on January 20, 2016 at 19:30 UTC (2:30 p.m. EST) when the storm was over the central U.S. In the image, snow cover is visible in the Rockies and southern Great Lakes states. VIIRS collects visible and infrared imagery and global observations of land, atmosphere, cryosphere and oceans. That low pressure system located over the south central United States on Jan. 21 is expected to track east across the Tennessee Valley and will give way to a deepening coastal low pressure area. The National Weather Service said "This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds." The storm system is expected to bring an increased risk of severe weather from far southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida Panhandle on Thursday, Jan. 21. That threat for severe weather will move east as the low pressure area continues heading in that direction. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland said "A potentially crippling winter storm is anticipated for portions of the mid-Atlantic Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall may approach two feet for some locations, including the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. metro areas. Farther north, there is uncertainty in snowfall for the New York City-to-Boston corridor. Farther south, significant icing is likely for portions of Kentucky and North Carolina." NASA image use

Impacts of a Destructive and Well-Observed Cross-Country Winter Storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martner, Brooks E.; Rauber, Robert M.; Ramamurthy, Mohan K.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Prater, Erwin T.

1992-02-01

A winter storm that crossed the continental United States in mid-February 1990 produced hazardous weather across a vast area of the nation. A wide range of severe weather was reported, including heavy snowfall; freezing rain and drizzle; thunderstorms with destructive winds, lightning, large hail, and tornadoes; prolonged heavy rain with subsequent flooding; frost damage to citrus orchards; and sustained destructive winds not associated with thunderstorms. Low-end preliminary estimates of impacts included 9 deaths, 27 injuries, and $120 million of property damage. At least 35 states and southeastern Canada were adversely affected. The storm occurred during the field operations of four independent atmospheric research projects that obtained special, detailed observations of it from the Rocky Mountains to the eastern great Lakes.

Satellites see major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East Coast

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

NASA and NOAA satellites are providing various views of the major winter storm marching toward the U.S. East coast on March 13. The storm is forecast to merge with another system and is expected to bring large snowfall totals from the Mid-Atlantic to New England. NASA's Aqua satellite gathered infrared data from the storm system and the area ahead of the storm for cloud and ground temperatures. NOAA's GOES-East satellite provided visible and infrared imagery that showed the extent and the movement of the system. Forecasters at the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center (WPC) noted that the low pressure system crossing the Midwest states and Ohio Valley is expected to merge with another low off the southeast U.S. coast. WPC stated "This will allow for a strong nor'easter to develop near the coast and cause a late-season snowstorm from the central Appalachians to New England, including many of the big cities in the Northeast U.S." Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project

Exceptional winter storms affecting Western Iberia and extremes: diagnosis, modelling and multi-model ensemble projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Gil, V.; Ramos, A. M.; Trigo, R. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate autumn and winter weather over Western Europe and particularly over the Iberian Peninsula. Intense, high-impact storms are one of the major weather risks in the region, mostly due to the simultaneous occurrence of high winds and extreme precipitation events. These intense extratropical cyclones may result in windstorm damage, flooding and coastal storm surges, with large societal impacts. In Portugal, due to the extensive human use of coastal areas, the natural and built coastal environments have been amongst the most affected. In this work several historical winter storms that adversely affected the Western Iberian Peninsula are studied in detail in order to contribute to an improved assessment of the characteristics of these events. The diagnosis has been performed based on instrumental daily precipitation and wind records, on satellite images, on reanalysis data and through model simulations. For several examples the synoptic evolution and upper-level dynamics analysis of physical processes controlling the life cycle of extratropical storms associated with the triggering of the considered extreme events has also been accomplished. Furthermore, the space-time variability of the exceptionally severe storms affecting Western Iberia over the last century and under three climate scenarios (the historical simulation, the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios) is presented. These studies contribute to improving the knowledge of atmospheric dynamics controlling the life cycle of midlatitude storms associated to severe weather (precipitation and wind) in the Iberian Peninsula. AcknowledgementsThis work is supported by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT), Portugal, through project UID/GEO/50019/2013 - Instituto Dom Luiz. A. M. Ramos is also supported by a FCT postdoctoral grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012).

The Impact of Cloud Properties on Young Sea Ice during Three Winter Storms at N-ICE2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, S. Y.; Walden, V. P.; Cohen, L.; Hudson, S. R.

2017-12-01

The impact of clouds on sea ice varies significantly as cloud properties change. Instruments deployed during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice field campaign (N-ICE2015) are used to study how differing cloud properties influence the cloud radiative forcing at the sea ice surface. N-ICE2015 was the first campaign in the Arctic winter since SHEBA (1997/1998) to study the surface energy budget of sea ice and the associated effects of cloud properties. Cloud characteristics, surface radiative and turbulent fluxes, and meteorological properties were measured throughout the field campaign. Here we explore how cloud macrophysical and microphysical properties affect young, thin sea ice during three winter storms from 31 January to 15 February 2015. This time period is of interest due to the varying surface and atmospheric conditions, which showcase the variety of conditions the newly-formed sea ice can experience during the winter. This period was characterized by large variations in the ice surface and near-surface air temperatures, with highs near 0°C when warm, moist air was advected into the area and lows reaching -40°C during clear, calm periods between storms. The advection of warm, moist air into the area influenced the cloud properties and enhanced the downwelling longwave flux. For most of the period, downwelling longwave flux correlates closely with the air temperature. However, at the end of the first storm, a drop in downwelling longwave flux of about 50 Wm-2 was observed, independent of any change in surface or air temperature or cloud fraction, indicating a change in cloud properties. Lidar data show an increase in cloud height during this period and a potential shift in cloud phase from ice to mixed-phase. This study will describe the cloud properties during the three winter storms and discuss their impacts on surface energy budget.

Winter Storm Continues Across Central U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2013-12-06

The powerful winter storm that has been affecting much of the central and western U.S. continues to intensify as it moves into Canada. Snow is tapering off across the Upper Midwest, but heavy snow is possible on Thursday from the Ohio Valley to the mid-Mississippi Valley, with heavy rain possible from the central Appalachians to the lower Mississippi Valley. Freezing rain is possible from Texas to the Ohio Valley. This image was taken by GOES East at 1745Z on December 5, 2013. Credit: NOAA/NASA GOES Project Caption: NOAA NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

ERICA plans for winter storms field study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadlock, Ron

The Experiment on Rapidly Intensifying Cyclones over the Atlantic (ERICA) field study will be conducted between December 1, 1988, and February 28, 1989. The oceanic area that is approximately bounded by t he Gulf Stream and North America, from coastal Carolina to just east of Newfoundland, will be the region for special observations obtained by recently developed measurement systems, including high-resolution and safe Loran-C dropwindsondes, CLASS rawinsondes, an array of drifting data buoys, and multiple airborne Doppler radars. The special observations will be acquired within a framework of all conventional operational data available for the eastern United States and Canada, including that from the National Weather Service's land sites (plus supplemental rawinsonde observations), ocean platforms, U.S. Air Force WC-130 National Winter Storms Operations Plan reconnaissance flights, and civilian and military weather satellites. Satellite imagery and soundings willl be available in real time and archived through facilities of NOAA and the military.

Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hondula, David M.; Dolan, Robert

2010-07-01

Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'—such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989—are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the losses along the

GIS-based estimation of the winter storm damage probability in forests: a case study from Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany).

PubMed

Schindler, Dirk; Grebhan, Karin; Albrecht, Axel; Schönborn, Jochen; Kohnle, Ulrich

2012-01-01

Data on storm damage attributed to the two high-impact winter storms 'Wiebke' (28 February 1990) and 'Lothar' (26 December 1999) were used for GIS-based estimation and mapping (in a 50 × 50 m resolution grid) of the winter storm damage probability (P(DAM)) for the forests of the German federal state of Baden-Wuerttemberg (Southwest Germany). The P(DAM)-calculation was based on weights of evidence (WofE) methodology. A combination of information on forest type, geology, soil type, soil moisture regime, and topographic exposure, as well as maximum gust wind speed field was used to compute P(DAM) across the entire study area. Given the condition that maximum gust wind speed during the two storm events exceeded 35 m s(-1), the highest P(DAM) values computed were primarily where coniferous forest grows in severely exposed areas on temporarily moist soils on bunter sandstone formations. Such areas are found mainly in the mountainous ranges of the northern Black Forest, the eastern Forest of Odes, in the Virngrund area, and in the southwestern Alpine Foothills.

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ballester, Joan; Rodó, Xavier; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François Richard

2016-10-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (see ref. ) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe.

Modelling economic losses of historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Welker, Christoph; Martius, Olivia; Stucki, Peter; Bresch, David; Dierer, Silke; Brönnimann, Stefan

2015-04-01

simulate the wind field and related economic impact of both historic and present-day high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since end of the 19th century. Our technique involves the dynamical downscaling of the 20CR to 3 km horizontal resolution using the numerical Weather Research and Forecasting model and the subsequent loss simulation using an open-source impact model. This impact model estimates, for modern economic and social conditions, storm-related economic losses at municipality level, and thus allows a numerical simulation of the impact from both historic and present-day severe winter storms in Switzerland on a relatively fine spatial scale. In this study, we apply the modelling chain to a storm sample of almost 90 high-impact winter storms in Switzerland since 1871, and we are thus able to make a statement of the typical wind and loss patterns of hazardous windstorms in Switzerland. To evaluate our modelling chain, we compare simulated storm losses with insurance loss data for the present-day windstorms "Lothar" and "Joachim" in December 1999 and December 2011, respectively. Our study further includes a range of sensitivity experiments and a discussion of the main sources of uncertainty.

Partitioning of Metals Throughout a Winter Storm-Generated Fluid Mud Event, Atchafalaya Shelf, Louisiana

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clark, F. R.; McKee, B. A.; Duncan, D. D.

2002-12-01

Particulate and dissolved phases of a suite of metals and radionuclides were analyzed in fluid mud samples collected during a time series. This time series was taken during the passage of a winter storm on the Atchafalaya Shelf off the coast of Louisiana. The shelf receives an estimated 30% of the flow of the Mississippi River from its distributary, the Atchafalaya River. This input contributes a high sediment load to the shelf. Frequent winter storms provide shear stress to resuspend sediments and form fluid mud. Samples of fluid mud and overlying water were collected every two hours for 56 hours. Meteorological data as well as turbidity measurements by OBS were collected throughout the study. Bottom sediments were also collected before and after the time series. Partitioning effects were investigated on Be7, Th234, and Pb210 by gamma spectroscopy. These effects were also studied on several redox-sensitive metals, including Fe, Mn, Mo, Te, Re, U, Al, Ti, and V by ICP-MS analysis. Preliminary results indicate a rapid establishment of reducing conditions in fluid mud immediately overlying the seabed. These conditions persist until the suspended sediments in the fluid mud settle, and the fluid mud dissipates. The recurrence of storm front passages and their subsequent fluid mud formation cause repeated cycling from oxic to suboxic conditions in these coastal bottom waters. This redox cycling could potentially alter the fates of redox-sensitive metals, especially those associated with metal oxide carrier phases.

Winter maintenance performance measure.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-01-01

The Winter Performance Index is a method of quantifying winter storm events and the DOTs response to them. : It is a valuable tool for evaluating the States maintenance practices, performing post-storm analysis, training : maintenance personnel...

European seasonal mortality and influenza incidence due to winter temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodó, X.; Ballester, J.; Robine, J. M.; Herrmann, F. R.

2017-12-01

Recent studies have vividly emphasized the lack of consensus on the degree of vulnerability (sensu IPCC) of European societies to current and future winter temperatures. Here we consider several climate factors, influenza incidence and daily numbers of deaths to characterize the relationship between winter temperature and mortality in a very large ensemble of European regions representing more than 400 million people. Analyses highlight the strong association between the year-to-year fluctuations in winter mean temperature and mortality, with higher seasonal cases during harsh winters, in all of the countries except the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Belgium. This spatial distribution contrasts with the well-documented latitudinal orientation of the dependency between daily temperature and mortality within the season. A theoretical framework is proposed to reconcile the apparent contradictions between recent studies, offering an interpretation to regional differences in the vulnerability to daily, seasonal and long-term winter temperature variability. Despite the lack of a strong year-to-year association between winter mean values in some countries, it can be concluded that warmer winters will contribute to the decrease in winter mortality everywhere in Europe. More information in Ballester J, et al. (2016) Nature Climate Change 6, 927-930, doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3070.

Legal immigrants: invasion of alien microbial communities during winter occurring desert dust storms.

PubMed

Weil, Tobias; De Filippo, Carlotta; Albanese, Davide; Donati, Claudio; Pindo, Massimo; Pavarini, Lorenzo; Carotenuto, Federico; Pasqui, Massimiliano; Poto, Luisa; Gabrieli, Jacopo; Barbante, Carlo; Sattler, Birgit; Cavalieri, Duccio; Miglietta, Franco

2017-03-10

A critical aspect regarding the global dispersion of pathogenic microorganisms is associated with atmospheric movement of soil particles. Especially, desert dust storms can transport alien microorganisms over continental scales and can deposit them in sensitive sink habitats. In winter 2014, the largest ever recorded Saharan dust event in Italy was efficiently deposited on the Dolomite Alps and was sealed between dust-free snow. This provided us the unique opportunity to overcome difficulties in separating dust associated from "domestic" microbes and thus, to determine with high precision microorganisms transported exclusively by desert dust. Our metagenomic analysis revealed that sandstorms can move not only fractions but rather large parts of entire microbial communities far away from their area of origin and that this microbiota contains several of the most stress-resistant organisms on Earth, including highly destructive fungal and bacterial pathogens. In particular, we provide first evidence that winter-occurring dust depositions can favor a rapid microbial contamination of sensitive sink habitats after snowmelt. Airborne microbial depositions accompanying extreme meteorological events represent a realistic threat for ecosystem and public health. Therefore, monitoring the spread and persistence of storm-travelling alien microbes is a priority while considering future trajectories of climatic anomalies as well as anthropogenically driven changes in land use in the source regions.

Design and quantification of an extreme winter storm scenario for emergency preparedness and planning exercises in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Martin, Ralph F.; Hughes, M.; Das, T.; Neiman, P.; Cox, D.; Estes, G.; Reynolds, D.; Hartman, R.; Cayan, D.; Jones, L.

2012-01-01

The USGS Multihazards Project is working with numerous agencies to evaluate and plan for hazards and damages that could be caused by extreme winter storms impacting California. Atmospheric and hydrological aspects of a hypothetical storm scenario have been quantified as a basis for estimation of human, infrastructure, economic, and environmental impacts for emergency-preparedness and flood-planning exercises. In order to ensure scientific defensibility and necessary levels of detail in the scenario description, selected historical storm episodes were concatentated to describe a rapid arrival of several major storms over the state, yielding precipitation totals and runoff rates beyond those occurring during the individual historical storms. This concatenation allowed the scenario designers to avoid arbitrary scalings and is based on historical occasions from the 19th and 20th Centuries when storms have stalled over the state and when extreme storms have arrived in rapid succession. Dynamically consistent, hourly precipitation, temperatures, barometric pressures (for consideration of storm surges and coastal erosion), and winds over California were developed for the so-called ARkStorm scenario by downscaling the concatenated global records of the historical storm sequences onto 6- and 2-km grids using a regional weather model of January 1969 and February 1986 storm conditions. The weather model outputs were then used to force a hydrologic model to simulate ARkStorm runoff, to better understand resulting flooding risks. Methods used to build this scenario can be applied to other emergency, nonemergency and non-California applications. ?? 2011 The Author(s).

Winter storms drive rapid phenotypic, regulatory, and genomic shifts in the green anole lizard.

PubMed

Campbell-Staton, Shane C; Cheviron, Zachary A; Rochette, Nicholas; Catchen, Julian; Losos, Jonathan B; Edwards, Scott V

2017-08-04

Extreme environmental perturbations offer opportunities to observe the effects of natural selection in wild populations. During the winter of 2013-2014, the southeastern United States endured an extreme cold event. We used thermal performance, transcriptomics, and genome scans to measure responses of lizard populations to storm-induced selection. We found significant increases in cold tolerance at the species' southern limit. Gene expression in southern survivors shifted toward patterns characteristic of northern populations. Comparing samples before and after the extreme winter, 14 genomic regions were differentiated in the surviving southern population; four also exhibited signatures of local adaptation across the latitudinal gradient and implicate genes involved in nervous system function. Together, our results suggest that extreme winter events can rapidly produce strong selection on natural populations at multiple biological levels that recapitulate geographic patterns of local adaptation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Storm related closures of I-5 and I-90 : freight transportation economic impact assessment report, winter 2007-2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This report documents the economic impact analysis undertaken by WSDOTs Freight Systems Division in response to the : storm-related closures of I-5 and I-90 in the winter 2007-2008. The closures were the result of severe weather that : overwhelmed...

The effects of storms and storm-generated currents on sand beaches in Southern Maine, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, H.W.; Kelley, J.T.; Belknap, D.F.; Dickson, S.M.

2004-01-01

Storms are one of the most important controls on the cycle of erosion and accretion on beaches. Current meters placed in shoreface locations of Saco Bay and Wells Embayment, ME, recorded bottom currents during the winter months of 2000 and 2001, while teams of volunteers profiled the topography of nearby beaches. Coupling offshore meteorological and beach profile data made it possible to determine the response of nine beaches in southern Maine to various oceanographic and meteorological conditions. The beaches selected for profiling ranged from pristine to completely developed and permitted further examination of the role of seawalls on the response of beaches to storms. Current meters documented three unique types of storms: frontal passages, southwest storms, and northeast storms. In general, the current meter results indicate that frontal passages and southwest storms were responsible for bringing sediment towards the shore, while northeast storms resulted in a net movement of sediment away from the beach. During the 1999-2000 winter, there were a greater percentage of frontal passages and southwest storms, while during the 2000-2001 winter, there were more northeast storms. The sediment that was transported landward during the 1999-2000 winter was reworked into the berm along moderately and highly developed beaches during the next summer. A northeast storm on March 5-6, 2001, resulted in currents in excess of 1 m s-1 and wave heights that reached six meters. The storm persisted over 10 high tides and caused coastal flooding and property damage. Topographic profiles made before and after the storm demonstrate that developed beaches experienced a loss of sediment volume during the storm, while sediment was redistributed along the profile on moderately developed and undeveloped beaches. Two months after the storm, the profiles along the developed beaches had not reached their pre-storm elevation. In comparison, the moderately developed and undeveloped beaches

Interannual variability of the North Pacific winter storm track and its relationship with extratropical atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xiaojiao; Zhang, Yaocun

2018-01-01

Interannual variability of the North Pacific storm track and the three-dimensional atmosphere circulation during winter are investigated using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data during 1950-2015. Results show that year-to-year variations of the storm track exhibit two principal modes, i.e. the monopole intensity change and the meridional shift of the storm track, respectively. The intensity change mode is linked to weakening of the Siberian high, northward shift of the western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and well corresponding to the Western Pacific teleconnection. The meridional shift mode is related to intensification and south-eastward extension of western Pacific jet stream and Aleutian Low, and linked to the Pacific-North America teleconnection. The internal atmospheric dynamics responsible for the storm track variability is further investigated from the perspective of wave-flow energy conversion. For the intensity change mode, accompanied by the enhanced baroclinity over the entrance region of the storm track, more energy is converted from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and then transferred to eddy kinetic energy, which is favorable for the overall enhancement of the storm track intensity. For the meridional shift mode, more energy is transformed from mean available potential energy to eddy available potential energy and further transferred to eddy kinetic energy over the southern (northern) areas of the storm track, contributing to the southward (northward) shift of the storm track. Additionally, the increased (decreased) conversion from mean-flow kinetic energy to eddy kinetic energy over the north-eastern Pacific region is also in favor of the southward (northward) shift of the storm track.

Satellite Shows Major Winter Storm Hitting the U.S. South

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-11

Clouds associated with the major winter storm that is bringing wintry precipitation and chilly temperatures to the U.S. south is the focus in an image from NOAA's GOES-East satellite today, February 12 at 1310 UTC/ 8:10 EST. Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow are part of the large front that stretches from eastern Texas to the Carolinas in the Geostationary Operational Environmental satellite or GOES image. NOAA's weather maps show several areas of low pressure along the frontal boundary. One low pressure is in the northern Gulf of Mexico, while the other is in the Atlantic Ocean, just south of South Carolina. (Insert link: www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/noaa/noaad1.gif). NOAA's National Weather Service has been issuing watches and warnings throughout the south that extend along Mid-Atlantic east coast. The visible cloud and ground snow data in this image was taken from NOAA's GOES-East satellite. The image was created by the NASA GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. The clouds and fallen snow were overlaid on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer or MODIS instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. NOAA's Weather Prediction Center, or WPC noted on Feb. 11 at 3:59 a.m. EST, "Once the intensifying surface low moves off the Southeast coast and begins its track up the Eastern Seaboard Wednesday night...winter weather will start lifting northward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states." GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth's surface, appearing stationary. As a result, GOES provide a constant vigil for the atmospheric "triggers" for severe weather conditions such as tornadoes, flash floods, hail storms and hurricanes

A Numerical Simulation (Study) of a Strong West Coast December 2014 Winter Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smelser, I.; Xu, L.; Amerault, C. M.; Baker, N. L.; Satterfield, E.; Chua, B.

2016-12-01

From December 10 through December 13, 2014, a powerful winter storm swept across the western US coastal states bringing widespread power outages, numerous downed trees and power lines, heavy rains, flooding and even a tornado in the Los Angeles basin. This windstorm was the strongest since October 2009, and was similar to classic wind storms such as the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (Read, 2015).The storm started developing over the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii on Nov. 30, and formed an atmospheric river that eventually stretched from Hawaii to the west coast. The storm initially hit the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 9th and then split. The highest precipitation amounts started in British Colombia and moved south along the coast. By the Dec. 11th, the highest precipitation amounts were near San Francisco (CA). The peak wind gust (14.4 ms-1) for Monterey (CA) occurred at 1116Z on Dec. 11th while the heaviest 6-hr precipitation (42.9 mm) occurred between 18Z on Dec. 11th to 00Z on Dec. 12th. By Dec. 12th, the storm was centered over Southern California.This storm was poorly forecast by many operational NWP models even 2-3 days in advance (Mass, 2014). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) showed considerably variability between successive model runs, and significant differences existed between Environment Canada, UK Met Office and ECMWF model forecasts. To study this extreme weather event, we used the Navy global (NAVGEM) and mesoscale (COAMPS®) NWP models, and compared the resulting forecasts to observations, satellite imagery and ECMWF (TIGGE) forecasts. NAVGEM, with Hybrid 4DVar, was run with a resolution of 31 km, and generated the boundary conditions for COAMPS® 4DVar and forecasts, that were run with triple-nested grids of 27, 9, and 3 km. The MesoWest data from the University of Utah were used for forecast verification, and to locate the times of highest precipitation and wind speed for different points along the coast. Both the online API and the python module were

Impact of the winter 2013-2014 series of severe Western Europe storms on a double-barred sandy coast: Beach and dune erosion and megacusp embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Marieu, Vincent; Bujan, Stéphane; Splinter, Kristen D.; Robinet, Arhur; Sénéchal, Nadia; Ferreira, Sophie

2015-06-01

The winter of 2013/2014 was characterized by a striking pattern of temporal and spatial extreme storm wave clustering in Western Europe. The 110-km long Gironde coast, SW France, was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over the last 18 years. The period was outstanding in terms of the available energy to move sediment and cause large-scale erosion with the 2-month average significant wave height (Hs) exceeding 3.6 m, just below the 0.95 quantile, and 4 distinct 10-year return period storms with Hs > 9 m. These storm waves caused unprecedented beach and dune erosion along the Gironde coast, including severely damaged sea defences at the coastal towns. At the end of the winter, dune erosion scarp height was highly variable alongshore and often exceeded 10 m. Megacusp embayments were observed along the Gironde coast with an average alongshore spacing of 1000 m in the south progressively decreasing to 500 m in the north, with an average cross-shore amplitude of 20 m. While beach megacusps were previously observed to systematically couple to the inner bar along the Gironde coast during low- to moderate-energy wave conditions, severe storm-driven megacusp embayments cutting the dune were found to be enforced and coupled to the outer crescentic bar. A detailed inspection of the 1500 m-long bimonthly topographic surveys of Truc Vert beach shows that in early January 2014 the outstanding shore-normal incident storm swell 'Hercules', with Hs and peak wave period Tp peaking at 9.6 m and 22 s, respectively, triggered the formation of a localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. The subsequent storms progressively smoothed the megacusp by the end of the winter, mostly through severe erosion of the megacusp horns. Because of the very long period (16 s < Tp < 23 s) storm waves with persistent shore-normal incidence, the well-developed outer crescentic bar observed prior to the winter did

Forecasting Winter Storms in the Sierra: A Social Science Perspective in Keeping the Public Safe without Negatively Impacting the Local Tourism Industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milne, R.; Wallmann, J.; Myrick, D. T.

2010-12-01

The National Weather Service Office in Reno is responsible for issuing Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories for the Sierra, including the Lake Tahoe Basin and heavily traveled routes such as Interstate 80, Highway 395 and Highway 50. These forecast products prepare motorists for harsh travel conditions as well as those venturing into the backcountry, which are essential to the NWS mission of saving lives and property. During the winter season, millions of people from around the world visit the numerous world class ski resorts in the Sierra and the Lake Tahoe Basin, which is vital to the local economy. This situation creates a challenging decision for the forecasters to provide appropriate wording in winter statements to keep the public safe, without significantly impacting the local tourism-based economy. Numerous text and graphical products, including online weather briefings, are utilized by NWS Reno to highlight hazards in ensuring the public, businesses, and other government agencies are prepared for winter storms and take appropriate safety measures. The effectiveness of these product types will be explored, with past snowstorms used as examples to show how forecasters determine which type of text or graphical product is most appropriate to convey the hazardous weather threats.

Genetic control of plant height in European winter wheat cultivars.

PubMed

Würschum, Tobias; Langer, Simon M; Longin, C Friedrich H

2015-05-01

Plant height variation in European winter wheat cultivars is mainly controlled by the Rht - D1 and Rht - B1 semi-dwarfing genes, but also by other medium- or small-effect QTL and potentially epistatic QTL enabling fine adjustments of plant height. Plant height is an important goal in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) breeding as it affects crop performance and thus yield and quality. The aim of this study was to investigate the genetic control of plant height in European winter wheat cultivars. To this end, a panel of 410 winter wheat varieties from across Europe was evaluated for plant height in multi-location field trials and genotyped for the candidate loci Rht-B1, Rht-D1, Rht8, Ppd-B1 copy number variation and Ppd-D1 as well as by a genotyping-by-sequencing approach yielding 23,371 markers with known map position. We found that Rht-D1 and Rht-B1 had the largest effects on plant height in this cultivar collection explaining 40.9 and 15.5% of the genotypic variance, respectively, while Ppd-D1 and Rht8 accounted for 3.0 and 2.0% of the variance, respectively. A genome-wide scan for marker-trait associations yielded two additional medium-effect QTL located on chromosomes 6A and 5B explaining 11.0 and 5.7% of the genotypic variance after the effects of the candidate loci were accounted for. In addition, we identified several small-effect QTL as well as epistatic QTL contributing to the genetic architecture of plant height. Taken together, our results show that the two Rht-1 semi-dwarfing genes are the major sources of variation in European winter wheat cultivars and that other small- or medium-effect QTL and potentially epistatic QTL enable fine adjustments in plant height.

Generation of a Catalogue of European Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Baptiste Granier, Jean; Bordoy, Roger; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Mitchell-Wallace, Kirsten; Souch, Claire

2016-04-01

The probability of multiple wind-storm events within a year is crucial to any (re)insurance company writing European wind business. Indeed, the volatility of losses is enhanced by the clustering of storms (cyclone families), as occurred in early 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke), December 1999 (Lothar, Martin) or December 2015 (Desmond, Eva, Frank), among others. In order to track winter extratropical cyclones, we use the maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa of the new-released long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from the ECMWF since the beginning of the 20th Century until 2010. We develop an automatic procedure to define events. We then quantify the severity of each storm using loss and meteorological indices at country and Europe-wide level. Validation against market losses for the period 1970-2010 is undertaken before considering the severity and frequency of European windstorms for the 110 years period.

European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haylock, M. R.

2011-10-01

Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961-2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.

Martian dust storms witnessed by Viking Lander 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, H. J.; Guinness, R. E. A.

1984-01-01

Viking Lander 1 observations on Mars were punctuated by a strong local dust storm after two martian years of mild wind conditions. Tens of micrometers of dust settled to the surface during global dust storms of the first two falls and winters; some of this dust was locally removed during the second year. A late winter local dust storm of the first year caused little or no erosion of the surface materials despite wind speeds of 25 to 30 m/s. The strong local dust storm occurred during late winter of the third martian year. Winds of this storm altered and demolished small conical piles of surface materials constructed at the onset the first winter, removed 4 to 5 mm size fragments, displaced centimeter size fragments, destroyed clouds in areas disrupted by the sampler and footpad, eroded impact pits, and darkened the sky. Movement of erosional products and tiny wind tails indicate easterly to northeasterly winds. If the 4 to 5 mm size fragments were entrained and removd by the wind, threshold friction speeds near 3 to 5 m/s would have been required for the atmospheric temperatures and pressures that prevailed during the late winter of the third year.

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chadwick, Robin; Douville, Hervé; Skinner, Christopher B.

2017-11-01

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to CO_2 forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

Winter Survival: A Consumer's Guide to Winter Preparedness.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department of Energy, Washington, DC.

This booklet discusses a variety of topics to help consumers prepare for winter. Tips for the home include: winterizing the home, dealing with a loss of heat or power failure, and what you need to have on hand. Another section gives driving tips and what to do in a storm. Health factors include suggestions for keeping warm, signs and treatment for…

Severe European winters in a secular perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoy, Andreas; Hänsel, Stephanie

2017-04-01

Temperature conditions during the winter time are substantially shaped by a strong year-to-year variability. European winters since the late 1980s - compared to previous decades and centuries - were mainly characterised by a high temperature level, including recent record-warm winters. Yet, comparably cold winters and severe cold spells still occur nowadays, like recently observed from 2009 to 2013 and in early 2017. Central England experienced its second coldest December since start of observations more than 350 years ago in 2010, and some of the lowest temperatures ever measured in northern Europe (below -50 °C in Lapland) were recorded in January 1999. Analysing thermal characteristics and spatial distribution of severe (historical) winters - using early instrumental data - helps expanding and consolidating our knowledge of past weather extremes. This contribution presents efforts towards this direction. We focus on a) compiling and assessing a very long-term instrumental, spatially widespread and well-distributed, high-quality meteorological data set to b) investigate very cold winter temperatures in Europe from early measurements until today. In a first step, we analyse the longest available time series of monthly temperature averages within Europe. Our dataset extends from the Nordic countries up to the Mediterranean and from the British Isles up to Russia. We utilise as much as possible homogenised times series in order to ensure reliable results. Homogenised data derive from the NORDHOM (Scandinavia) and HISTALP (greater alpine region) datasets or were obtained from national weather services and universities. Other (not specifically homogenised) data were derived from the ECA&D dataset or national institutions. The employed time series often start already during the 18th century, with Paris & Central England being the longest datasets (from 1659). In a second step, daily temperature averages are involved. Only some of those series are homogenised, but

Occurrence and Transport of Diazinon in the Sacramento River and Selected Tributaries, California, during Two Winter Storms, January?February 2001

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dileanis, Peter D.; Brown, David L.; Knifong, Donna L.; Saleh, Dina

2003-01-01

Diazinon, an organophosphate insecticide, is applied as an orchard dormant spray in the Sacramento Valley during the winter months when the area receives most of its annual rainfall. During winter rainstorms that frequently follow dormant spray applications, some of the applied pesticide is transported in storm runoff to the Sacramento River and its tributaries. Diazinon is also used to control insect pests on residential and commercial properties in urban areas and is frequently detected in urban storm runoff draining into the Sacramento River system. Between January 24 and February 14, 2001, diazinon concentrations and loads were measured in the Sacramento River and selected tributaries during two winter storms that occurred after dormant spray applications were made to orchards in the Sacramento Valley. Water samples were collected at 21 sites that represented agricultural and urban inputs on a variety of scales, from small tributaries and drains representing local land use to main-stem river sites representing regional effects. Concentrations of diazinon ranged from below laboratory reporting levels to 1,380 nanograms per liter (ng/L), with a median of 55 ng/L during the first monitored storm and 26 ng/L during the second. The highest concentrations were observed in small channels draining predominantly agricultural land. About 26,000 pounds of diazinon were reported applied to agricultural land in the study area just before and during the monitoring period. About 0.2 percent of the applied insecticide appeared to be transported to the lower Sacramento River during that period. The source of about one third of the total load measured in the lower Sacramento River appears to be in the portion of the drainage basin upstream of the city of Colusa. About 12 percent of the diazinon load in the lower Sacramento River was transported from the Feather River Basin, which drains much of the mountainous eastern portions of the Sacramento River Basin. Diazinon use in the

Winter Precipitation Forecast in the European and Mediterranean Regions Using Cluster Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Totz, Sonja; Tziperman, Eli; Coumou, Dim; Pfeiffer, Karl; Cohen, Judah

2017-12-01

The European climate is changing under global warming, and especially the Mediterranean region has been identified as a hot spot for climate change with climate models projecting a reduction in winter rainfall and a very pronounced increase in summertime heat waves. These trends are already detectable over the historic period. Hence, it is beneficial to forecast seasonal droughts well in advance so that water managers and stakeholders can prepare to mitigate deleterious impacts. We developed a new cluster-based empirical forecast method to predict precipitation anomalies in winter. This algorithm considers not only the strength but also the pattern of the precursors. We compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models and a canonical correlation analysis-based prediction method demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

The role of volcanic aerosols and relativistic electrons in modulating winter storm vorticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tinsley, Brian A.; Zhou, Limin; Liu, Weiping

2012-09-01

Small changes in the vorticity of winter storms, responding to solar wind variations, are found in winters from 1957 to 2011, and are greater for winters with higher levels of stratospheric volcanic aerosols. Using 1993-2011 data, the response of the vorticity area index (VAI) is shown to be of larger amplitude when the days of minima in the relativistic electron flux (REF) precipitating from the radiation belts are used, instead of heliospheric current sheet (HCS) crossings, as key days in superposed epoch analyses. The HCS crossings mostly occur within a few days of the REF minima. The VAI is an objective measure of the area of high cyclonic vorticity, and for the present work is derived from ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses of global meteorological data. The VAI dependencies on the stratospheric aerosol content (SAC) and the REF are consistent with a model in which the ionosphere-earth current density (Jz) affects cloud microphysics. One of the ways in which Jz is modulated is by changes in stratospheric column resistance (S), which is increased by stratospheric aerosols. Because S is in series with the tropospheric column resistance (T), Jz modulation by REF requires that S be not negligible with respect to T. So the Jz modulation and the VAI response appear when the SAC is very high, or the REF reductions (which also increase S) are very deep, and when the product of the SAC and the reciprocal of the REF exceeds a threshold value dependent on T.

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Science as a foundation for discussing, recognizing and mitigating storm-disaster vulnerabilities in mountain and downstream communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCarthy, M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Kauneckis, D. L.; Cox, D. A.; Albano, C.; Welborn, T.

2014-12-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have historically caused ~80% of the most extreme winter storms and largest floods in California and parts of northwestern Nevada. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme-storm scenario to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to explore and mitigate potential impacts. The scenario was constructed by concatenating two historical AR sequences and quantified by simulating them using a regional-weather model nested within global weather fields, resulting in a climatologically plausible 23-day storm sequence. The ARkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six meetings with over 300 participants from local agencies, first-responders and local communities, each meeting having a different geographic or sectoral focus. These stakeholder meetings and an 18-question survey identified a wide range of social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs to prepare and mitigate consequenses, and proactive measures to minimize impacts. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human environments by impeding emergency response efforts. Natural resource impacts of greatest concern include flooding, impacts to water quality, spread and establishment of invasive species, and interactions with other disturbance types (e.g., fire, landslides). Science needs include improved monitoring and models to facilitate better prediction and response, real-time and forecast inundation mapping to understand flood risks, and vulnerability assessments related to geomorphic hazards and water quality impacts. Results from this effort highlight several opportunities for increasing the resilience of communities and the environment to extreme storm events. Information

Statistical Downscaling of Gusts During Extreme European Winter Storms Using Radial-Basis-Function Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Voigt, M.; Lorenz, P.; Kruschke, T.; Osinski, R.; Ulbrich, U.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2012-04-01

Winterstorms and related gusts can cause extensive socio-economic damages. Knowledge about the occurrence and the small scale structure of such events may help to make regional estimations of storm losses. For a high spatial and temporal representation, the use of dynamical downscaling methods (RCM) is a cost-intensive and time-consuming option and therefore only applicable for a limited number of events. The current study explores a methodology to provide a statistical downscaling, which offers small scale structured gust fields from an extended large scale structured eventset. Radial-basis-function (RBF) networks in combination with bidirectional Kohonen (BDK) maps are used to generate the gustfields on a spatial resolution of 7 km from the 6-hourly mean sea level pressure field from ECMWF reanalysis data. BDK maps are a kind of neural network which handles supervised classification problems. In this study they are used to provide prototypes for the RBF network and give a first order approximation for the output data. A further interpolation is done by the RBF network. For the training process the 50 most extreme storm events over the North Atlantic area from 1957 to 2011 are used, which have been selected from ECMWF reanalysis datasets ERA40 and ERA-Interim by an objective wind based tracking algorithm. These events were downscaled dynamically by application of the DWD model chain GME → COSMO-EU. Different model parameters and their influence on the quality of the generated high-resolution gustfields are studied. It is shown that the statistical RBF network approach delivers reasonable results in modeling the regional gust fields for untrained events.

The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss

PubMed Central

Screen, James A.

2017-01-01

Reductions in Arctic sea ice may promote the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO−). It has been argued that NAO-related variability can be used an as analogue to predict the effects of Arctic sea ice loss on mid-latitude weather. As NAO− events are associated with colder winters over Northern Europe, a negatively shifted NAO has been proposed as a dynamical pathway for Arctic sea ice loss to cause Northern European cooling. This study uses large-ensemble atmospheric simulations with prescribed ocean surface conditions to examine how seasonal-scale NAO− events are affected by Arctic sea ice loss. Despite an intensification of NAO− events, reflected by more prevalent easterly flow, sea ice loss does not lead to Northern European winter cooling and daily cold extremes actually decrease. The dynamical cooling from the changed NAO is ‘missing', because it is offset (or exceeded) by a thermodynamical effect owing to advection of warmer air masses. PMID:28262679

Winter Storm Jupiter of January 2017: Meteorological Drivers, Synoptic Evolution, and Climate Change Considerations in Portland, Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dean, S.; Loikith, P. C.

2017-12-01

Although the Pacific Northwest has some of the highest wintertime precipitation in the United States, most urban areas receive little in the way of snow. While 37 inches of wintertime rain fall in Portland on average annually, the city only receives four inches of snow on average. Although wintertime extreme snowstorm events are rare in Portland, in the last century they have occurred about once every ten years. On January 10-12th, 2017, winter storm Jupiter brought 11 inches of snow to downtown Portland within a 12-hour period, making it the largest snowstorm for the city in twenty years. The city declared a state of emergency, over 30,000 citizens lost power, and thousands of businesses were forced to shut down. The anomalously cold air and high amounts of snowfall in a short amount of time made the storm different from others in recent years. This study aims to discover the meteorological drivers behind the January 2017 snowstorm in Portland, Oregon. We also aim to understand how this storm compared with other local storms in the past, and assess the likelihood of a similar event occurring in the future. To do this, reanalysis data were used to display the synoptic evolution of the January 2017 storm. We compared this storm with two other extreme snowfall events from December 2008 and January 1980, assessing meteorological similarities and differences between storms. Results show that the 2017 event was associated with a slow moving, strong low-pressure system accompanied by a 500 hPa trough. These large-scale features helped drive slow moving, locally heavy snow bands over the city of Portland. At the same time, an unusually strong Arctic high-pressure system moved into the interior Pacific Northwest allowing for strong cold air advection west through the Cascade Mountain Range and Columbia River Gorge. Temperature trends show warming of 1-2 °C in the Pacific Northwest since the middle of the last century. Because of this, uncertainty associated with

Modeling of Coastal Inundation, Storm Surge, and Relative Sea-Level Rise at Naval Station Norfolk, Norfolk, Virginia, U.S.A.

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of 2 m. ADDITIONAL INDEX WORDS: Nearshore hydrodynamic modeling, waves, synthetic tropical storms , extratropical storms , Hurricane Isabel, land...an increase in SLR and coastal storms , including hurricanes (tropical storms ) and winter storms ( extratropical storms ), will increase the risk of... storms ) corresponding to 50-year and 100-year return periods and a most probable winter storm ( extratropical ) that occurred in October 1982 (Burks-Copes

Large Enhancements in the O/N2 Ratio in the Evening Sector of the Winter Hemisphere During Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, A. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Carignan, G. R.; Roble, R. G.

1995-01-01

In this paper, we have looked for enhancements of the O/N2 ratio in data measured by the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite in the middle latitudes of the winter hemisphere, based on a prediction that was made by the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/tonosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) that such increases occur. The NCAR-TIGCM predicts that these enhancements should be seen throughout the low latitude region and in many middle latitude locations, but that the enhancements in O/N2 are particularly strong in the middle-latitude, evening-to-midnight sector of the winter hemisphere. When this prediction was used to look for these effects in DE 2 NACS (neutral atmosphere composition spectrometer) data, large enhancements in the O/N2 ratio (approx. 50 to 90%) were seen. These enhancements were observed during the main phase of a storm that occurred on November 24, 1982, and were seen in the same region of the winter hemisphere predicted by the NCAR-TIGCM. They are partially the result of the depletion of N2 and, as electron loss is dependent on dissociative recombination at F(sub 2) altitudes, they have implications for electron densities in this area. Parcel trajectories, which have been followed through the NCAR-TIGCM history file for this event, show that large O/N2 enhancements occur in this limited region in the winter hemisphere for two reasons. First, these parcels of air are decelerated by the antisunward edge of the ion convection pattern; individual parcels converge and subsidence occurs. Thus molecular-nitrogen-poor air is brought from higher to lower heights. Because neutral parcels that are found a little poleward of the equatorial edge of the eveningside convection pattern are swept inward toward the center of the auroral oval, the enhancements occur only in a very limited range of latitudes. Second, nitrogen-poor air is transported from regions close to the magnetic pole in the winter hemisphere. During geomagnetic

Characteristics of ionospheric storms in East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xiao; Wang, Guojun; Shi, Jiankui

The ionosphere experiences intense response during the geomagnetic storm and it varies with latitude and longitude. The DPS-4 digisonde measurements and GPS-TEC data of ionospheric stations located at different latitudes in the longitudinal sector of 90-130E during 2002 to 2012 were analyzed to investigate the ionospheric effects in the different latitude of East Asia during geomagnetic storm. About 70 geomagnetic storms are selected according to the Dst index and observed data and they are in different seasons and different solar activity levels. A few quiet days’ averages of data before geomagnetic storm were used as the undisturbed level. Results show that for the middle and high latitude, the short-lived positive disturbance associated with the initial phase of the every storm was observed in each season and then the disturbances were negative till the termination of storm. At the low latitude, storm-time disturbances of foF2 have obvious diurnal, seasonal and solar cycle characteristics. Generally, geomagnetic activity will cause foF2 to increase at daytime and decrease at nighttime except for the summer in low solar activity period. The intensity of response of foF2 is stronger at nighttime than that at daytime. The negative ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in summer and the positive ionospheric storm effect is the strongest in winter. In high solar activity period, the diurnal variation of the response of foF2 is very pronounced in each season, and the strong ionospheric response can last several days. In low solar activity period, ionospheric response has very pronounced diurnal variation in winter only. It’s notable that geomagnetic activities occurred at local time nighttime can cause stronger and longer responses of foF2 at the low latitude. All in all, the obvious negative phase ionospheric storms often occurred at the low latitude. Moreover a notable phenomenon was observed for the low latitude, there are the intensive oscillations of foF2

Quantitative Estimation of the Impact of European Teleconnections on Interannual Variation of East Asian Winter Temperature and Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lim, Young-Kwon; Kim, Hae-Dong

2014-01-01

The impact of European teleconnections including the East AtlanticWest Russia (EA-WR), the Scandinavia (SCA), and the East Atlantic (EA) on East Asian winter temperature variability was quantified and compared with the combined effect of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), the Western Pacific (WP), and the El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which are originated in the Northern Hemispheric high-latitudes or the Pacific. Three European teleconnections explained 22-25 percent of the total monthly upper-tropospheric height variance over Eurasia. Regression analysis revealed warming by EA-WR and EA and cooling by SCA over mid-latitude East Asia during their positive phase and vice versa. Temperature anomalies were largely explained by the advective temperature change process at the lower troposphere. The average spatial correlation over East Asia (90-180E, 10-80N) for the last 34 winters between observed and reconstructed temperature comprised of AO, WP and ENSO effect (AWE) was approximately 0.55, and adding the European teleconnection components (ESE) to the reconstructed temperature improved the correlation up to approximately 0.64. Lower level atmospheric structure demonstrated that approximately five of the last 34 winters were significantly better explained by ESE than AWE to determine East Asian seasonal winter temperatures. We also compared the impact between EA-WR and AO on the 1) East Asian winter monsoon, 2) cold surge, and 3) the Siberian high. These three were strongly coupled, and their spatial features and interannual variation were somewhat better explained by EA-WR than AO. Results suggest that the EA-WR impact must be treated more importantly than previously thought for a better understanding of East Asian winter temperature and monsoon variability.

Response of winter North Atlantic storm track to climate change in the CNRM-CM5 simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chauvin, Fabrice; Oudar, Thomas; Sanchez-Gomez, Emilia; Terray, Laurent

2016-04-01

Climate variability in Europe in winter is largely controlled by North Atlantic storm tracks. These are associated with transport of energy, momentum, and water vapour, between the equator and mid latitudes. Extratropical cyclones have caused severe damages over some regions in north-western Europe, since they can combine extreme precipitation and strong winds. This is why it is relevant to study the impact of climate change on the extratropical cyclones, principally on their intensity, position or lifespan. Indeed, several recent studies have focused on this subject by using atmospheric reanalysis and general circulation models (GCMs). The main conclusions from the CMIP3 simulations showed a decreasing of the total number of cyclones and a poleward shift of their tracks in response to global warming. In the recent CMIP5 exercise, the consensus is not so clear, probably due to more complex feedbacks acting in the different models. Thus, the question of changes in North Atlantic storm-tracks with warming remains open. The main goal of this work is to explore the changes in the North Atlantic storm-tracks in the past and future decades and to analyze the contributions of the different external forcings (natural and anthropogenic) versus the internal variability. On this purpose, we use the Detection and Attribution (D&A) simulations performed with the coupled model CNRM-CM5. To characterize the extratropical cyclones and their tracks, a tracking scheme based on the detection of maximum of relative vorticity at 850 hPa is conducted. We show that the coupled model fairly well reproduces the storm genesis locations as well as the tracks pathways comparing to several atmospheric reanalysis products. In the recent historical period (1950-2005), the model shows a decrease in the number of storms in the southern North-Atlantic, when all the forcings (anthropogenic and natural) are prescribed. Even if the role of internal variability is important in the last decades (the

Impacts of extratropical storm tracks on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, Jianfen; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-05-01

Studies have indicated regime shifts in atmospheric circulation, and associated changes in extratropical storm tracks and Arctic storm activity, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and cyclone activity on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait by using a high resolution global ocean-sea ice model, MITgcm-ECCO2. The model was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter (in this study winter is defined as October-March and summer as April-September) storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Impact of storms on coastlines: preparing for the future without forgetting the past? Examples from European coastlines using a Storm Impact Database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, Paolo; Garnier, Emmanuel; Ferreira, Oscar; Spencer, Thomas; Armaroli, Clara

2017-04-01

Severe storms have historically affected many European coastlines but the impact of each storm has been evaluated in different ways in different countries, often using local socio-economic impact criteria (e.g. loss of lives and damage to properties). Although the Xynthia (2010) storm, Atlantic coast of France, was the largest coastal disaster of the last 50 years, similar events have previously impacted Europe. The 1953 storm surge in the southern North Sea, resulted in over 2000 deaths and extensive flooding and was the catalyst for post WWII improvements in flood defences and storm early warning systems. On a longer timescale, the very extreme storm of 1634 AD re-configured Wadden Sea coastlines, accompanied by thousands of deaths. Establishing patterns of coastal risk and vulnerability is greatly helped by the use of historical sources, as these allow the development of more complete time series of storm events and their impacts. The work to be presented was supported by the EU RISC-KIT (Resilience-Increasing Strategies for Coasts - toolKIT) Project. RISC-KIT (http://www.risckit.eu/np4/home.html) is a EU FP7 Collaborative project that has developed methods, tools and management approaches to reduce risk and increase resilience to low frequency, high-impact hydro-meteorological events in the coastal zone. These products will enhance forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities, improve the assessment of long-term coastal risk and optimize the mix of prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. We analyse historical large-scale events occurred from The Middle Ages to the 1960s at the case study sites of North Norfolk Coast (UK), the Charente-Maritime and Vendée coast (France), the Cinque Terre-Liguria (Italy), the Emilia-Romagna coast (Italy), and the Ria Formosa coast (Portugal). The work presented here uses a database of events built by the project, examining records for the last 300 years, including the characteristics of the storms as well as

DSD Characteristics of a Mid-Winter Tornadic Storm Using C-Band Polarimetric Radar and Two 2D-Video Disdrometers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thurai, M.; Petersen, W. A.; Carey, L. A.

2010-01-01

Drop size distributions in an evolving tornadic storm are examined using C-band polarimetric radar observations and two 2D-video disdrometers. The E-F2 storm occurred in mid-winter (21 January 2010) in northern Alabama, USA, and caused widespread damage. The evolution of the storm occurred within the C-band radar coverage and moreover, several minutes prior to touch down, the storm passed over a site where several disdrometers including two 2D video disdrometers (2DVD) had been installed. One of the 2DVDs is a low profile unit and the other is a new next generation compact unit currently undergoing performance evaluation. Analyses of the radar data indicate that the main region of precipitation should be treated as a "big-drop" regime case. Even the measured differential reflectivity values (i.e. without attenuation correction) were as high as 6-7 dB within regions of high reflectivity. Standard attenuation-correction methods using differential propagation phase have been "fine tuned" to be applicable to the "big drop" regime. The corrected reflectivity and differential reflectivity data are combined with the co-polar correlation coefficient and specific differential phase to determine the mass-weighted mean diameter, Dm, and the width of the mass spectrum, (sigma)M, as well as the intercept parameter , Nw. Significant areas of high Dm (3-4 mm) were retrieved within the main precipitation areas of the tornadic storm. The "big drop" regime assumption is substantiated by the two sets of 2DVD measurements. The Dm values calculated from 1-minute drop size distributions reached nearly 4 mm, whilst the maximum drop diameters were over 6 mm. The fall velocity measurements from the 2DVD indicate almost all hydrometeors to be fully melted at ground level. Drop shapes for this event are also being investigated from the 2DVD camera data.

ARkStorm@Tahoe: Stakeholder perspectives on vulnerabilities and preparedness for an extreme storm event in the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno, and Carson City region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Albano, Christine M.; Cox, Dale A.; Dettinger, Michael; Shaller, Kevin; Welborn, Toby L.; McCarthy, Maureen

2014-01-01

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are strongly linked to extreme winter precipitation events in the Western U.S., accounting for 80 percent of extreme floods in the Sierra Nevada and surrounding lowlands. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey developed the ARkStorm extreme storm scenario for California to quantify risks from extreme winter storms and to allow stakeholders to better explore and mitigate potential impacts. To explore impacts on natural resources and communities in montane and adjacent environments, we downscaled the scenario to the greater Lake Tahoe, Reno and Carson City region of northern Nevada and California. This ArkStorm@Tahoe scenario was presented at six stakeholder meetings, each with a different geographic and subject matter focus. Discussions were facilitated by the ARkStorm@Tahoe team to identify social and ecological vulnerabilities to extreme winter storms, science and information needs, and proactive measures that might minimize impacts from this type of event. Information collected in these meetings was used to develop a tabletop emergency response exercise and set of recommendations for increasing resilience to extreme winter storm events in both Tahoe and the downstream communities of Northern Nevada.Over 300 individuals participated in ARkStorm@Tahoe stakeholder meetings and the emergency response exercise, including representatives from emergency response, natural resource and ecosystem management, health and human services, public utilities, and businesses. Interruption of transportation, communications, and lack of power and backup fuel supplies were identified as the most likely and primary points of failure across multiple sectors and geographies, as these interruptions have cascading effects on natural and human systems by impeding emergency response efforts. Other key issues that arose in discussions included contamination risks to water supplies and aquatic ecosystems, especially in the Tahoe Basin and Pyramid Lake, interagency

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern

Changing climate shifts timing of European floods.

PubMed

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A P; Merz, Bruno; Arheimer, Berit; Aronica, Giuseppe T; Bilibashi, Ardian; Bonacci, Ognjen; Borga, Marco; Čanjevac, Ivan; Castellarin, Attilio; Chirico, Giovanni B; Claps, Pierluigi; Fiala, Károly; Frolova, Natalia; Gorbachova, Liudmyla; Gül, Ali; Hannaford, Jamie; Harrigan, Shaun; Kireeva, Maria; Kiss, Andrea; Kjeldsen, Thomas R; Kohnová, Silvia; Koskela, Jarkko J; Ledvinka, Ondrej; Macdonald, Neil; Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria; Mediero, Luis; Merz, Ralf; Molnar, Peter; Montanari, Alberto; Murphy, Conor; Osuch, Marzena; Ovcharuk, Valeryia; Radevski, Ivan; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José L; Sauquet, Eric; Šraj, Mojca; Szolgay, Jan; Viglione, Alberto; Volpi, Elena; Wilson, Donna; Zaimi, Klodian; Živković, Nenad

2017-08-11

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Readiness of Military Installations for Increasing Heavy Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demissie, Y. K.; Mortuza, M. R.; Yan, E.

2016-12-01

Recent analysis of historical and future precipitation data suggests that the frequency and intensity of heavy storms are in raising trends in most parts of U.S. Majority of the climate models also suggest that increased winter snow pack, and late winter rainfall, may result in groundwater level rise and soil saturation that can lead to potentially severe flooding. The Department of Defense, which own more than 7,000 military installations throughout the world, has also recognized that changes in precipitation and increasing storm frequency and intensity present a real threat to most of its installations and impacting the national security. Identify vulnerabilities is the first step to reduce the risks posed by climate change and associated change in storm magnitude and frequency. In this study, a risk/consequence based approach was applied to evaluating the vulnerability of the Joint Base Lewis-McChord, which is located in suburb of Seattle. The intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used to design storm water-related infrastructures was evaluated by considering the recent and expected changes in heavy storms in the region. The ability of existing stormwater management system to accommodate the changes in storms was assessed based on expected peaks and volumes of runoff, and suggestions were made to improve their overall effectiveness.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

Evaluation of sources and loading of pesticides to the Sacramento River, California, USA, during a storm event of winter 2005.

PubMed

Guo, Lei; Kelley, Kevin; Goh, Kean S

2007-11-01

A monitoring study was conducted in the tributaries and main stem of the Sacramento River, California, USA, during the storm event of January 26 to February 1, 2005. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the sources and loading of pesticides in the Sacramento River watershed during the winter storm season. A total of 26 pesticides or pesticide degradates were analyzed, among which five pesticides and one triazine degradate were detected. Diuron, diazinon, and simazine were found in all streams with a total load of 110.4, 15.4, and 15.7 kg, respectively, in the Sacramento River over the single storm event. Bromacil, hexazinone, and the triazine degradate diaminochlorotriazine were only detected in two smaller drainage canals with a load ranged from 0.25 to 7 kg. The major source of pesticides detected in the main stem Sacramento River was from the most upstream subbasin, the Sacramento River above Colusa, where detected pesticides either exceeded or were close to those at the main outlet of the Sacramento River at Alamar Marina. The higher precipitation in this subbasin was partly responsible for the greater contribution of pesticides observed. Diazinon was the only pesticide with concentrations above water quality criteria, indicating that additional mitigation measures may be needed to reduce its movement to surface water.

The Role of Thermodynamic Processes in the Evolution of Single and Multi-banding within Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganetis, Sara Anne

Mesoscale precipitation bands within Northeast U.S. (NEUS) winter storms result in heterogeneous spatial and temporal snowfall. Several studies have provided analysis of snowbands focusing on larger, meso-beta scale bands with lengths (L) > 200 km known as single bands. NEUS winter storms can also exhibit multiple bands with meso-beta scale (L < 200 km) and similar spatial orientation and when ≥ 3 occur are termed multi-bands; however, the genesis and evolution of multi-bands is less well understood. Unlike single bands, there is no multi-bands climatological study. In addition, there has been little detailed thermodynamic analysis of snowbands. This dissertation utilizes radar observations, reanalyses, and high-resolution model simulations to explore the thermodynamic evolution of single and multi-bands. Bands are identified within 20 cool season (October-April) NEUS storms. The 110-case dataset was classified using a combination of automated and manual methods into: single band only (SINGLE), multi-bands only (MULTI), both single and multi-bands (BOTH), and non-banded (NONE). Multi-bands occur with the presence of a single band in 55.4% of times used in this study, without the presence of a single band 18.1% of the time, and precipitation exhibits no banded characteristics 23.8% of the time. Most MULTI events occur in the northeast quadrant of a developing cyclone poleward of weak-midlevel forcing along a warm front, whereas multi-bands associated with BOTH events mostly occur in the northwest quadrant of mature cyclones associated with strong mid-level frontogenesis and conditional symmetric instability. The non-banded precipitation associated with NONE events occur in the eastern quadrants of developing and mature cyclones lacking mid-level forcing to concentrate the precipitation into bands. A high-resolution mesoscale model is used to explore the evolution of single and multi-bands based on two case studies, one of a single band and one of multi-bands. The

Winter precipitation forecast in the European and Mediterranean regions using cluster analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molnos, S.

2017-12-01

The European and Mediterranean climates are sensitive to large-scale circulation of the atmosphere andocean making it difficult to forecast precipitation or temperature on seasonal time-scales. In addition, theMediterranean region has been identified as a hotspot for climate change and already today a drying in theMediterranean region is observed.Thus, it is critically important to predict seasonal droughts as early as possible such that water managersand stakeholders can mitigate impacts.We developed a novel cluster-based forecast method to empirically predict winter's precipitationanomalies in European and Mediterranean regions using precursors in autumn. This approach does notonly utilizes the amplitude but also the pattern of the precursors in generating the forecast.Using a toy model we show that it achieves a better forecast skill than more traditional regression models. Furthermore, we compare our algorithm with dynamic forecast models demonstrating that our prediction method performs better in terms of time and pattern correlation in the Mediterranean and European regions.

Satellite Eyes New England Winter Storm Breaking Records

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-09

Another large snowstorm affecting New England was dropping more snow on the region and breaking records on February 9, as NOAA's GOES-East satellite captured an image of the clouds associated with the storm system. On Feb. 9, NOAA's National Weather Service in Boston, Massachusetts noted that "The 30-day snowfall total at Boston ending 7 a.m. this morning is 61.6 inches. This exceeds the previous maximum 30 day snowfall total on record at Boston, which was 58.8 inches ending Feb 7 1978." The GOES-East image was created by NASA/NOAA's GOES Project at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. It showed a blanket of clouds over the U.S. northeast that stretched down to the Mid-Atlantic where there was no snow on the ground in Washington, D.C. NOAA's National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center provided a look at the extent of the storm system and noted "Heavy snow will impact portions of New York State and New England as the new week begins. Freezing rain will spread from western Pennsylvania to Long Island, with rain for the mid-Atlantic states." The low pressure area bringing the snow to the northeast was located in central Pennsylvania. A cold front extended southward from the low across the Tennessee Valley while a stationary boundary extended eastward from the low across the central mid-Atlantic. To create the image, NASA/NOAA's GOES Project takes the cloud data from NOAA's GOES-East satellite and overlays it on a true-color image of land and ocean created by data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, instrument that flies aboard NASA's Aqua and Terra satellites. Together, those data created the entire picture of the storm. NOAA's GOES satellites provide the kind of continuous monitoring necessary for intensive data analysis. Geostationary describes an orbit in which a satellite is always in the same position with respect to the rotating Earth. This allows GOES to hover continuously over one position on Earth

On the role of sea-state in bubble-mediated air-sea gas flux during a winter storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Jun-Hong; Emerson, Steven R.; D'Asaro, Eric A.; McNeil, Craig L.; Harcourt, Ramsey R.; Sullivan, Peter P.; Yang, Bo; Cronin, Meghan F.

2017-04-01

Oceanic bubbles play an important role in the air-sea exchange of weakly soluble gases at moderate to high wind speeds. A Lagrangian bubble model embedded in a large eddy simulation model is developed to study bubbles and their influence on dissolved gases in the upper ocean. The transient evolution of mixed-layer dissolved oxygen and nitrogen gases at Ocean Station Papa (50°N, 145°W) during a winter storm is reproduced with the model. Among different physical processes, gas bubbles are the most important in elevating dissolved gas concentrations during the storm, while atmospheric pressure governs the variability of gas saturation anomaly (the relative departure of dissolved gas concentration from the saturation concentration). For the same wind speed, bubble-mediated gas fluxes are larger during rising wind with smaller wave age than during falling wind with larger wave age. Wave conditions are the primary cause for the bubble gas flux difference: when wind strengthens, waves are less-developed with respect to wind, resulting in more frequent large breaking waves. Bubble generation in large breaking waves is favorable for a large bubble-mediated gas flux. The wave-age dependence is not included in any existing bubble-mediated gas flux parameterizations.

High-resolution monitoring of stormwater quality in an urbanising catchment in the United Kingdom during the 2013/2014 winter storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, S. J.; Hutchins, M. G.; Kjeldsen, T. R.; Miller, J. D.; Bussi, G.; Loewenthal, M.

2015-12-01

Urban areas are widely recognised as a key source of contaminants entering our freshwater systems, yet in spite of this, our understanding of stormwater quality dynamics remains limited. The development of in-situ, high-resolution monitoring equipment has revolutionised our capability to capture flow and water quality data at a sub-hourly resolution, enabling us to potentially enhance our understanding of hydrochemical variations from contrasting landscapes during storm events. During the winter of 2013/2014, the United Kingdom experienced a succession of intense storm events, where the south of the country experienced 200% of the average rainfall, resulting in widespread flooding across the Thames basin. We applied high-frequency (15 minute resolution) water quality monitoring across ten contrasting subcatchments (including rural, urban and mixed land-use catchments), seeking to classify the disparity in water quality conditions both within- and between events. Rural catchments increasingly behave like "urban" catchments as soils wet up and become increasingly responsive to subsequent events, however water quality response during the winter months remains limited. By contrast, increasingly urban catchments yield greater contaminant loads during events, and pre-event baseline chemistry highlights a resupply source in dense urban catchments. Wastewater treatment plants were shown to dominate baseline chemistry during low-flow events but also yield a considerable impact on stormwater outputs during peak-flow events, as hydraulic push results in the outflow of untreated solid wastes into the river system. Results are discussed in the context of water quality policy; urban growth scenarios and BMP for stormwater runoff in contrasting landscapes.

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Facilitating Adaptation to Changing Storm Surge Patterns in Western Alaska.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murphy, K. A.; Holman, A.; Reynolds, J.

2014-12-01

Coastal regions of North America are already experiencing the effects of climate change and the consequences of new storm patterns and sea level rise. These climate change effects are even more pronounced in western Alaska where the loss of sea ice in early winter and spring are exposing the coast to powerful winter storms that are visibly altering the landscape, putting coastal communities at risk, and are likely impacting important coastal wildlife habitat in ways we don't yet understand. The Western Alaska Landscape Conservation Cooperative has funded a suite of projects to improve the information available to assist managers and communities to adapt changes in coastal storms and their impacts. Projects range from modeling tide, wave and storm surge patters, to ShoreZone and NHD mapping, to bathymetry mapping, community vulnerability assessments and risks to important wildlife habitat. This group of diverse projects has helped stimulate momentum among partners which will lead to better tools for communities to respond to dangerous storms. For example, the State of Alaska and NOAA are working together to compile a series of community-scale maps that utilize best-available datasets to streamline communication about forecasted storm surges, local elevations and potentially impacted infrastructure during storm events that may lead to coastal flooding.

Latitudinal features of Total Electron Content over the African and European longitude sector following the St. Patrick's day storm of 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paul, A.; Kascheyev, A.; Rodriguez-Bouza, M.; Pathak, K.; Ferreira, A. A.; Shetti, D.; Yao, J. N.

2018-04-01

GNSS TEC values have been obtained from 18 stations distributed from the magnetic equator to nearly 80°N magnetic dip in the African and west-European longitude sector corresponding to the March 17-18, 2015 geomagnetic storm. Significantly depleted ionosphere have been observed at stations north of 50°N geographic on March 18, 2015 following the above storm over a longitude swath 11.9°-21°E covering the Eastern Africa and Western European longitude sector. High ROTI values were noted on March 17th at locations around 80°N magnetic dip. Two prominent peaks in PCN were noted around 09:00 UT and 14:00 UT on March 17, 2015 and around 15:00 UT on March 18, 2015. Daytime thermospheric (O/N2) ratio was markedly less on March 18th at latitudes above 60°N geographic which is suggested to be the major driver behind depleted high latitude ionosphere during the recovery phase of the storm on March 18, 2015.

Latitudinal and Seasonal Investigations of Storm-Time TEC Variation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adimula, I. A.; Oladipo, O. A.; Adebiyi, S. J.

2016-07-01

The ionosphere responds markedly and unpredictably to varying magnetospheric energy inputs caused by solar disturbances on the geospace. Knowledge of the impact of the space weather events on the ionosphere is important to assess the environmental effect on the operations of ground- and space-based technologies. Thus, global positioning system (GPS) measurements from the international GNSS service (IGS) database were used to investigate the ionospheric response to 56 geomagnetic storm events at six different latitudes comprising the northern and southern hemispheres in the Afro-European sector. Statistical distributions of total electron content (TEC) response show that during the main phase of the storms, enhancement of TEC is more pronounced in most of the seasons, regardless of the latitude and hemisphere. However, a strong seasonal dependence appears in the TEC response during the recovery phase. Depletion of TEC is majorly observed at the high latitude stations, and its appearance at lower latitudes is seasonally dependent. In summer hemisphere, the depletion of TEC is more pronounced in nearly all the latitudinal bands. In winter hemisphere, enhancement as well as depletion of TEC is observed over the high latitude, while enhancement is majorly observed over the mid and low latitudes. In equinoxes, the storm-time TEC distribution shows a fairly consistent characteristic with the summer distribution, particularly in the northern hemisphere.

Coastal change from Hurricane Sandy and the 2012-13 winter storm season: Fire Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Brenner, Owen; Henderson, Rachel E.; Reynolds, B.J.

2013-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) mounted a substantial effort in response to Hurricane Sandy including an assessment of the morphological impacts to the beach and dune system at Fire Island, New York. Field surveys of the beach and dunes collected just prior to and after landfall were used to quantify change in several focus areas. In order to quantify morphologic change along the length of the island, pre-storm (May 2012) and post-storm (November 2012) lidar and aerial photography were used to assess changes to the shoreline and beach, and to measure volumetric changes. The extent and thicknesses of overwash deposits were mapped in the field, and measurements were used to determine volume, distribution, and characteristics of the deposits. The beaches and dunes on Fire Island were severely eroded during Hurricane Sandy, and the island breached in three locations on the eastern segment of the island. Landward shift of the upper portion of the beach averaged 19.7 meters (m) but varied substantially along the coast. Shoreline change was also highly variable, but the shoreline prograded during the storm by an average of 11.4 m, due to the deposition of material eroded from the upper beach and dunes onto the lower portion of the beach. The beaches and dunes lost 54.4 percent of their pre-storm volume, and the dunes experienced overwash along 46.6 percent of the island. The inland overwash deposits account for 14 percent of the volume lost from the beaches and dunes, indicating that the majority of material was moved offshore. In the winter months following Hurricane Sandy, seven storm events with significant wave heights greater than four m were recorded at a wave buoy 30 nautical miles south of Fire Island. Monthly shoreline and profile surveys indicate that the beach continued to erode dramatically. The shoreline, which exhibited a progradational trend immediately after Sandy, eroded an average of 21.4 m between November 2012 and mid-March 2013, with a maximum

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karremann, Melanie K.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Reyers, Mark; Klawa, Matthias

2015-04-01

During the last decades, several windstorm series hit Europe leading to large aggregated losses. Such storm series are examples of serial clustering of extreme cyclones, presenting a considerable risk for the insurance industry. Clustering of events and return periods of storm series affecting Europe are quantified based on potential losses using empirical models. Moreover, possible future changes of clustering and return periods of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of NCEP reanalysis data (1973/1974 - 2012/2013). Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels) are used to assess return periods of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Return periods of historical storm series are estimated based on the Poisson and the negative binomial distributions. Additionally, 800 winters of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 general circulation model simulations for present (SRES scenario 20C: years 1960- 2000) and future (SRES scenario A1B: years 2060- 2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries in Europe, and estimated return periods are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of return periods are estimated for fixed return levels and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter return periods are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter return periods are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the return periods for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of preindustrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed return levels. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a

Unintentional carbon monoxide poisoning following a winter storm--Washington, January 1993.

PubMed

1993-02-19

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisoning was a major health consequence of a severe storm that struck the Puget Sound region of western Washington state the morning of January 20, 1993. Wind gusts up to 94 miles per hour interrupted electrical power for an estimated 776,000 residents, and during the 4 nights following the storm, temperatures fell to near freezing. Because of the use of alternative sources of energy for indoor cooking and home heating, the risk of exposure to CO increased for many persons. This report summarizes cases of storm-related CO poisoning among persons who were initially evaluated at Seattle's Harborview Medical Center (HMC) or who were referred to the Virginia Mason Medical Center (VMMC) for hyperbaric oxygen therapy.

Evaluation of Mixed-Phase Microphysics Within Winter Storms Using Field Data and In Situ Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Colle, Brian A.; Molthan, Andrew; Yu, Ruyi; Nesbitt, Steven

2014-01-01

Snow prediction within models is sensitive to the snow densities, habits, and degree of riming within the BMPs. Improving these BMPs is a crucial step toward improving both weather forecasting and climate predictions. Several microphysical schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model down to 1.33-km grid spacing are evaluated using aircraft, radar, and ground in situ data from the Global Precipitation Mission Cold-season Precipitation Experiment (GCPEx) experiment over southern Ontario, as well as a few years (12 winter storms) of surface measurements of riming, crystal habit, snow density, and radar measurements at Stony Brook, NY (SBNY on north shore of Long Island) during the 2009-2012 winter seasons. Surface microphysical measurements at SBNY were taken every 15 to 30 minutes using a stereo microscope and camera, and snow depth and snow density were also recorded. During these storms, a vertically-pointing Ku band radar was used to observe the vertical evolution of reflectivity and Doppler vertical velocities. The GCPex presentation will focus on verification using aircraft spirals through warm frontal snow band event on 18 February 2012. All the BMPs realistically simulated the structure of the band and the vertical distribution of snow/ice aloft, except the SBU-YLIN overpredicted slightly and Thompson (THOM) underpredicted somewhat. The Morrison (MORR) scheme produced the best slope size distribution for snow, while the Stony Brook (SBU) underpredicted and the THOM slightly overpredicted. Those schemes that have the slope intercept a function of temperature (SBU and WSM6) tended to perform better for that parameter than others, especially the fixed intercept in Goddard. Overall, the spread among BMPs was smaller than in other studies, likely because there was limited riming with the band. For the 15 cases at SBNY, which include moderate and heavy riming events, the non-spherical snow assumption (THOM and SBU-YLIN) simulated a more realistic

Multiple ionospheric perturbations during the Saint Patrick's Day storm 2015 in the European-African sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borries, Claudia; Mahrous, Ayman M.; Ellahouny, Nada M.; Badeke, Ronny

2016-11-01

Strong ionospheric perturbations were generated by the intense geomagnetic storm on 17 March 2015. In this article, we are studying perturbations in the European-African sector observed in the total electron content (TEC). Focal points are wavelike phenomena considered as large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). In the European-African sector, the storm produced three different types of LSTIDs: (1) a concurrent TEC perturbation at all latitudes simultaneously; (2) one LSTID propagating toward the equator, having very large wave parameters (wavelength: ≈3600 km, period: ≈120 min, and speed: ≈500 m/s); and (3) several LSTIDs propagating toward the equator with typical wave parameters (wavelength: ≈2100 km, period: ≈60 min, and speed ≈600 m/s). The third type of LSTIDs is considered to be exited as most LSTIDs either due to variations in the Joule heating or variations in the Lorentz force, whereas the first two perturbation types are rather unusual in their appearance. They occurred during the partial recovery phase when the geomagnetic perturbations were minor and the interplanetary magnetic field turned northward. A westward prompt penetration electric field is considered to excite the first perturbation signature, which indicates a sudden TEC depletion. For the second LSTID type, variations in the Lorentz force because of perturbed electric fields and a minor particle precipitation effect are extracted as possible excitation mechanisms.

Impacts of Changed Extratropical Storm Tracks on Arctic Sea Ice Export through Fram Strait

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wei, J.; Zhang, X.; Wang, Z.

2017-12-01

Studies have indicated a poleward shift of extratropical storm tracks and intensification of Arctic storm activities, in particular on the North Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean. To improve understanding of dynamic effect on changes in Arctic sea ice mass balance, we examined the impacts of the changed storm tracks and activities on Arctic sea ice export through Fram Strait through ocean-sea ice model simulations. The model employed is the high-resolution Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm), which was forced by the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis (JRA-25) dataset. The results show that storm-induced strong northerly wind stress can cause simultaneous response of daily sea ice export and, in turn, exert cumulative effects on interannual variability and long-term changes of sea ice export. Further analysis indicates that storm impact on sea ice export is spatially dependent. The storms occurring southeast of Fram Strait exhibit the largest impacts. The weakened intensity of winter storms in this region after 1994/95 could be responsible for the decrease of total winter sea ice export during the same time period.

Klaus, an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France - a comparison between storm diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-05-01

The synoptic evolution and dynamical characteristics of storm "Klaus" (23 and 24 January 2009) are analysed. "Klaus" was an extratropical cyclone which developed over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean on the 21st January 2009, then moved eastward embedded in the strong westerly flow and experienced a notorious strengthening on the 23rd January. The storm moved into the Bay of Biscay and deepened further before hitting Northern Spain and Southwestern France with gusts of up to 198 km/h. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. "Klaus" was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes: a) the vorticity maxima based algorithm originally developed by Murray and Simmonds [1991], adapted for Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics [Pinto et al. 2005]; and b) the pressure minima based algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region [Trigo et al. 1999; 2002] and later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region [Trigo 2006]. Additionally, the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm are analysed. The vorticity based method detects the storm earlier than the pressure minima one. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor discrepancies being probably related to different ways of both methods handling the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple candidates for cyclonic centres. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During maximum intensity change within 24 hours was 1.165hPa/(deglat)2. References: Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) Aust

Treatment performance of a constructed wetland during storm and non-storm events in Korea.

PubMed

Maniquiz, M C; Lee, S Y; Choi, J Y; Jeong, S M; Kim, L H

2012-01-01

The efficiency of a free water surface flow constructed wetland (CW) in treating agricultural discharges from stream was investigated during storm and non-storm events between April and December, 2009. Physico-chemical and water quality constituents were monitored at five sampling locations along the flow path of the CW. The greatest reduction in pollutant concentration was observed after passing the sedimentation zone at approximately 4% fractional distance from the inflow. The inflow hydraulic loading, flow rates and pollutant concentrations were significantly higher and variable during storm events than non-storm (baseflow) condition (p <0.001) that resulted to an increase in the average pollutant removal efficiencies by 10 to 35%. The highest removal percentages were attained for phosphate (51 ± 22%), ammonium (44 ± 21%) and phosphorus (38 ± 19%) while nitrate was least effectively retained by the system with only 25 ± 17% removal during non-storm events. The efficiency of the system was most favorable when the temperature was above 15 °C (i.e., almost year-round except the winter months) and during storm events. Overall, the outflow water quality was better than the inflow water quality signifying the potential of the constructed wetland as a treatment system and capability of improving the stream water quality.

Identifying Climate Model Teleconnection Mechanisms Between Arctic Sea Ice Loss and Mid-Latitude Winter Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kravitz, B.; Mills, C.; Rasch, P. J.; Wang, H.; Yoon, J. H.

2016-12-01

The role of Arctic amplification, including observed decreases in sea ice concentration, thickness, and extent, with potential for exciting downstream atmospheric responses in the mid-latitudes, is a timely issue. We identify the role of the regionality of autumn sea ice loss on downstream mid-latitude responses using engineering methodologies adapted to climate modeling, which allow for multiple Arctic sea regions to be perturbed simultaneously. We evaluate downstream responses in various climate fields (e.g., temperature, precipitation, cloud cover) associated with perturbations in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas and the Kara/Barents Seas. Simulations suggest that the United States response is primarily linked to sea ice changes in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, whereas Eurasian response is primarily due to Kara/Barents sea ice coverage changes. Downstream effects are most prominent approximately 6-10 weeks after the initial perturbation (sea ice loss). Our findings suggest that winter mid-latitude storms (connected to the so-called "Polar Vortex") are linked to sea ice loss in particular areas, implying that further sea ice loss associated with climate change will exacerbate these types of extreme events.

IRI STORM validation over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haralambous, Haris; Vryonides, Photos; Demetrescu, Crişan; Dobrică, Venera; Maris, Georgeta; Ionescu, Diana

2014-05-01

The International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) model includes an empirical Storm-Time Ionospheric Correction Model (STORM) extension to account for storm-time changes of the F layer peak electron density (NmF2) during increased geomagnetic activity. This model extension is driven by past history values of the geomagnetic index ap (The magnetic index applied is the integral of ap over the previous 33 hours with a weighting function deduced from physically based modeling) and it adjusts the quiet-time F layer peak electron density (NmF2) to account for storm-time changes in the ionosphere. In this investigation manually scaled hourly values of NmF2 measured during the main and recovery phases of selected storms for the maximum solar activity period of the current solar cycle are compared with the predicted IRI-2012 NmF2 over European ionospheric stations using the STORM model option. Based on the comparison a subsequent performance evaluation of the STORM option during this period is quantified.

Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

2016-01-01

The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

During a winter of storms in a small UK catchment, hydrology and water quality responses follow a clear rural-urban gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McGrane, Scott J.; Hutchins, Michael G.; Miller, James D.; Bussi, Gianbattista; Kjeldsen, Thomas R.; Loewenthal, Matt

2017-02-01

This paper presents the hydrological and water quality response from a series of extreme storm events that passed across the UK during the winter of 2013/2014, in an experimental catchment with a strong rural-urban gradient across four nested sub-catchment areas. The Ray catchment in the upper Thames basin, UK, was extensively monitored using in-situ, high-resolution (15 min) flow and water quality instrumentation. Dissolved oxygen, ammonium, turbidity and specific conductivity are used to characterise the water quality dynamics. The impact of the Swindon sewage treatment works (SSTW) on water chemistry at the catchment outlet is considerable. Hydrological and water-quality response varies considerably during the events, with the rural catchments exhibiting a much slower hydrological response compared to urban areas. A simple hydrological model (TETIS) was developed to provide insight into water sources in nested subcatchments, highlighting the disparity of the hydrological dynamics across contrasting land-uses during events. The variation in stormwater runoff sources impacts water quality signals with urban sites contributing to dilution dynamics in ammonium, whereas the more rural site experiences a peak in ammonium during the same event. Dissolved oxygen concentrations vary on a rural-urban gradient and experience a notable sag at the Water Eaton outlet (4.4 mg/l) during the events, that would have resulted in significant ecological harm had they occurred during the summer in warmer temperatures. The water-quality legacy of these storms in the wider context of the hydrological year is somewhat negligible, with markedly poorer water quality signals being observed during the summer months of 2014. Although ammonium concentrations during the events are elevated (above the 'good' status threshold under the WFD), higher values are observed during spring and summer months. The high flows actually appear to flush contaminants out of the Ray and its subcatchments

Aggregation of European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus ssp. melitensis) around cage fish farms. Do they benefit from the farmś resources?

PubMed

Aguado-Giménez, F; Sallent-Sánchez, A; Eguía-Martínez, S; Martínez-Ródenas, J; Hernández-Llorente, M D; Palanca-Maresca, C; Molina-Pardo, J L; López-Pastor, B; García-Castellanos, F A; Ballester-Moltó, M; Ballesteros-Pelegrín, G; García-García, B; Barberá, G G

2016-12-01

Cage aquaculture aggregates wild fauna due to food provision. Several seabirds frequent fish farms, including the European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis). This work investigates the presence of storm-petrels around two aquaculture areas interspersed between breeding colonies in western Mediterranean Sea. Contribution of aquaculture-derived resources to their diet was assessed. Storm-petrels were mist-netted at the colonies and marked by bleaching feathers. Density around aquaculture areas was estimated through visual counts. Marks recognition was conducted visually and by photo-capture. Storm-petrel regurgitates were used as target tissue to estimate diet sources contribution. Contribution of surface zooplankton, ichthyoplankton and aquaculture wastes was estimated through Bayesian mixing modelling combining carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes and fatty acids as biomarkers. Storm-petrel density was high in open-sea aquaculture area, but not observed around near shore farms. Temporal variability of storm-petrels density during the breeding season was linked to their reproductive phenology. Within the open-sea aquaculture area, bluefin tuna farm was more attractive for storm-petrels than seabream/seabass farms. Visual identification of bleaching marks was not useful. Photo-capture showed that 8.3% of the storm-petrels watched around farms were firstly trapped in some of the nearby colonies, and 91.7% were unmarked. Qualitative evidence of aquaculture-derived wastes utilization was obtained. However, its estimated contribution was low (4.3%) when compared to ichthyoplankton (61.1%) or zooplankton (34.6%). The studied open-sea farms significantly aggregated storm-petrels along their entire breeding season. Storm-petrels got a slight profit from aquaculture resources. Nevertheless, some concerns arise regarding the cost/benefit balance of the interaction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comprehensive Condition Survey and Storm Waves, Circulation, and Sediment Study, Dana Point Harbor, California

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-01

waters; 3) west to northwest local sea; 4) prefrontal local sea; 5) tropical storm swell; and 6) extratropical cyclone in the southern hemisphere...14-13 58 Prefrontal local sea The coastal zone within the south Orange County area is vulnerable under extratropical winter storm conditions (a...wave characteristics for severe extratropical storms during the 39 yr time period (1970–2008) are comparable to peak storm wave heights that were

Biomass yield and heterosis of crosses within and between European winter cultivars of turnip rape (Brassica rapa L.).

PubMed

Ofori, Atta; Schierholt, Antje; Becker, Heiko C

2012-02-01

Because of its high growth rate at low temperatures in early spring, there is renewed interest in Brassica rapa as a winter crop for biomass production in Europe. The available cultivars are not developed for this purpose however. An approach for breeding bioenergy cultivars of B. rapa could be to establish populations from two or more different cultivars with high combining ability. The objective of this study was to evaluate the heterosis for biomass yield in the European winter B. rapa genepool. The genetic variation and heterosis of the biomass parameters: dry matter content, fresh and dry biomass yields were investigated in three cultivars representing different eras of breeding by comparing full-sibs-within and full-sibs-between the cultivars. Field trials were performed at two locations in Germany in 2005-2006. Mean mid-parent heterosis was low with 2.5% in fresh and 3.0% in dry biomass yield in full-sibs-between cultivars. Mean values of individual crosses revealed a higher variation in mid-parent heterosis ranging from 14.6% to -7.5% in fresh biomass yield and from 19.7% to -12.7% in dry biomass yield. The low heterosis observed in hybrids between European winter cultivars can be explained by the low genetic variation between these cultivars as shown earlier with molecular markers. In conclusion, a B. rapa breeding program for biomass production in Europe should not only use European genetic resources, but should also utilize the much wider worldwide variation in this species.

Disentangling migratory routes and wintering grounds of Iberian near-threatened European Rollers Coracias garrulus.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Ruiz, Juan; de la Puente, Javier; Parejo, Deseada; Valera, Francisco; Calero-Torralbo, Miguel A; Reyes-González, José M; Zajková, Zuzana; Bermejo, Ana; Avilés, Jesús M

2014-01-01

Long-distance migrants are suffering drastic declines in the last decades. Causes beneath this problem are complex due to the wide spatial and temporal scale involved. We aim to reveal migratory routes, stopover areas, wintering grounds, and migratory strategies for the most southwestern populations of the near-threatened European Roller Coracias garrulus in order to identify conservation key areas for the non-breeding stage of this species. To this end, we used tracking data from seven satellite transmitters fitted to birds breeding in different populations throughout the Iberian Peninsula and four geolocators fitted to individuals in a southeastern Iberian population. Precise satellite data were used to describe daily activity patterns and speed in relation to the main regions crossed during the migration. Individuals from the most southwestern Iberian populations made a detour towards the Atlantic African coast whereas those from northeastern populations followed a straight north-to-south route. We identified important stopover areas in the Sahel belt, mainly in the surroundings of the Lake Chad, and wintering grounds on southwestern Africa farther west than previously reported for the species. Concerning the migratory strategy, satellite data revealed: 1) a mainly nocturnal flying activity, 2) that migration speed depended on the type of crossed habitat, with higher average speed while crossing the desert; and 3) that the migration was slower and lasted longer in autumn than in spring. The studied populations showed weak migratory connectivity, suggesting the confluence of birds from a wide range of breeding grounds in a restricted wintering area. Therefore, we suggest to target on defining precisely key areas for this species and identifying specific threats in them in order to develop an appropriate global conservation programme for the European Roller.

The likelihood of winter sprites over the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, Colin; Burrows, William; King, Patrick

2002-11-01

With the recent introduction of the Canadian Lightning Detection Network (CLDN), it was revealed that during the winter months every year, the highest lightning activity within the network occurs over the Gulf Stream, southeast of Nova Scotia. These storms over the Gulf Stream, in addition to being of importance to trans-Atlantic shipping and aviation, have an unusually high fraction of positive polarity lightning, with unusually large peak currents. Such intense positive lightning flashes are known to generate transient luminous events (TLEs) such as sprites and elves in the upper atmosphere. It is found that many of these large positive discharges produce extremely low frequency (ELF) electromagnetic radiation detected at a field station in the Negev Desert, Israel, 8000 km away, in agreement with previously documented sprite observations. Since these winter storms occur in the same location every year, it provides a good opportunity for field experiments focused on studying winter sprites and oceanic thunderstorms.

F layer positive response to a geomagnetic storm - June 1972

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, N. J.; Grebowsky, J. M.; Mayr, H. G.; Harris, I.; Tulunay, Y. K.

1979-01-01

A circulation model of neutral thermosphere-ionosphere coupling is used to interpret in situ spacecraft measurements taken during a topside midlatitude ionospheric storm. The data are measurements of electron density taken along the circular polar orbit of Ariel 4 at 550 km during the geomagnetically disturbed period June 17-18, 1972. It is inferred that collisional momentum transfer from the disturbed neutral thermosphere to the ionosphere was the dominant midday process generating the positive F-layer storm phase in the summer hemisphere. In the winter hemisphere the positive storm phase drifted poleward in the apparent response to magnetospheric E x B drifts. A summer F-layer positive phase developed at the sudden commencement and again during the geomagnetic main phase; a winter F-layer positive phase developed only during the geomagnetic main phase. The observed seasonal differences in both the onsets and the magnitudes of the positive phases are attributed to the interhemispheric asymmetry in thermospheric dynamics.

Extreme Storms. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kossin, J. P.; Hall, T.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; Trapp, R. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential

February 1994 ice storm: forest resource damage assessment in northern Mississippi

Treesearch

Dennis M. Jacobs

2000-01-01

During February 8­11, 1994, a severe winter storm moved from Texas and Oklahoma to the mid-Atlantic depositing in northern Mississippi a major ice accumulation of 3 to 6 inches. An assessment of forest resource damage was initiated immediately after the storm by performing an airborne video mission to acquire aerial imagery linked to global positioning coordinates....

Storm-Tracks in ERA-40 and ERA-Interim Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Extratropical cyclones, their dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector (85°W-70°E; 20°N-75°N) presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al., 1999, 2002) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo, 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows (Trigo et al. 1999), is applied to 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000-hPa from two reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Two storm-track databases are built over the Northern Atlantic European area, spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1989 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions (T106 and T255, respectively). This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclone formation and dissipation and main cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector. Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg, 1999: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696. Trigo I. F., G. R. Bigg and T. D. Davies, 2002: Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. R. L.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-09-01

The synoptic evolution and impacts of storm Klaus that swept through northern Iberia and southern France on 23-24 January 2009, are assessed. Klaus followed an unusual southern path and was the costliest weather hazard event worldwide during 2009. In particular, it was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. Several long-term records of maximum wind speed gust were broken, including Bordeaux, Narbonne and Perpignan. Storm Klaus first developed close to the Bermudas, traveled fast eastwards and underwent explosive development near the Iberian Peninsula. Its development was supported by an extended and intensified polar jet which stretched down to Western Europe and strong upper-air divergence associated with a second jet streak. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor minor discrepancies. These are likely associated to the fields used by each method for storm identification (near surface geopotential height and geostrophic vorticity, respectively) and to different handling of the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple cyclone candidates. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During the maximum intensification phase, the laplacian of surface pressure increased by 1.165hPa/(deglat)2 within 24 hours.

Air-sea interactions during strong winter extratropical storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Jill; He, Ruoying; Warner, John C.; Bane, John

2014-01-01

A high-resolution, regional coupled atmosphere–ocean model is used to investigate strong air–sea interactions during a rapidly developing extratropical cyclone (ETC) off the east coast of the USA. In this two-way coupled system, surface momentum and heat fluxes derived from the Weather Research and Forecasting model and sea surface temperature (SST) from the Regional Ocean Modeling System are exchanged via the Model Coupling Toolkit. Comparisons are made between the modeled and observed wind velocity, sea level pressure, 10 m air temperature, and sea surface temperature time series, as well as a comparison between the model and one glider transect. Vertical profiles of modeled air temperature and winds in the marine atmospheric boundary layer and temperature variations in the upper ocean during a 3-day storm period are examined at various cross-shelf transects along the eastern seaboard. It is found that the air–sea interactions near the Gulf Stream are important for generating and sustaining the ETC. In particular, locally enhanced winds over a warm sea (relative to the land temperature) induce large surface heat fluxes which cool the upper ocean by up to 2 °C, mainly during the cold air outbreak period after the storm passage. Detailed heat budget analyses show the ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux dominates the upper ocean heat content variations. Results clearly show that dynamic air–sea interactions affecting momentum and buoyancy flux exchanges in ETCs need to be resolved accurately in a coupled atmosphere–ocean modeling framework.

The Framework of a Coastal Hazards Model - A Tool for Predicting the Impact of Severe Storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Barnard, Patrick L.; O'Reilly, Bill; van Ormondt, Maarten; Elias, Edwin; Ruggiero, Peter; Erikson, Li H.; Hapke, Cheryl; Collins, Brian D.; Guza, Robert T.; Adams, Peter N.; Thomas, Julie

2009-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California (Jones and others, 2007) is a five-year project (FY2007-FY2011) integrating multiple USGS research activities with the needs of external partners, such as emergency managers and land-use planners, to produce products and information that can be used to create more disaster-resilient communities. The hazards being evaluated include earthquakes, landslides, floods, tsunamis, wildfires, and coastal hazards. For the Coastal Hazards Task of the Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California, the USGS is leading the development of a modeling system for forecasting the impact of winter storms threatening the entire Southern California shoreline from Pt. Conception to the Mexican border. The modeling system, run in real-time or with prescribed scenarios, will incorporate atmospheric information (that is, wind and pressure fields) with a suite of state-of-the-art physical process models (that is, tide, surge, and wave) to enable detailed prediction of currents, wave height, wave runup, and total water levels. Additional research-grade predictions of coastal flooding, inundation, erosion, and cliff failure will also be performed. Initial model testing, performance evaluation, and product development will be focused on a severe winter-storm scenario developed in collaboration with the Winter Storm Working Group of the USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California. Additional offline model runs and products will include coastal-hazard hindcasts of selected historical winter storms, as well as additional severe winter-storm simulations based on statistical analyses of historical wave and water-level data. The coastal-hazards model design will also be appropriate for simulating the impact of storms under various sea level rise and climate-change scenarios. The operational capabilities of this modeling system are designed to provide emergency planners with

Sources of primary and secondary organic aerosols in Chinese versus European Cities during winter time

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prevot, A. S.; Slowik, J.; El-Haddad, I.; Pieber, S. M.; Yuan, B.; Stefenelli, G.; Pospisilova, V.; Lopez-Hilfiker, F.; Qi, L.; Tong, Y.; Wang, L.; Daellenbach, K.; Klein, F.; Elser, M.; Junji, C.; Huang, R. J. J.; Baltensperger, U.

2017-12-01

In the recent years, aerosol mass spectrometric (AMS) measurements were performed in Beijing (China), Zurich (Switzerland) and other Chinese and European cities indicating the importance of not only primary sources but also secondary organic aerosol (SOA) sources despite low radiation levels for photooxidation. Among the primary sources, residential burning is especially important in winter including wood and coal burning. Also for secondary organic aerosols, VOC emissions of residential burning are likely an important source in winter. An interesting question is whether daytime photooxidation and/or night-time NO3 radical chemistry are important pathways for the SOA formation. Recently we developed a new measurement technique based on exctractive electrospray ionization (EESI) that allow for the study of the organic molecules in the particulate phase without fragmentation. Combined measurements with AMS and EESI will be discussed for smogchamber experiments (simulating both nighttime and daytime chemistry) SOA formation potential, the link between VOCs and SOA and the SOA composition. In-situ and off-line measurements in Europe and China are analyzed in the light of those experiments with a focus on the importance of residential burning to both primary and secondary organic aerosols in cities during winter.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Winter Art Education Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jokela, Timo

2007-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe how the Department of Art Education at the University of Lapland in Finland has developed winter art as a method of environmental and community-based art education. I will focus on the Snow Show Winter Art Education Project, a training project funded by the European Union and the State Provincial Office…

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zahn, Matthias

2018-06-01

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the

NASA Sees Winter's Northeastern U.S. Snowcover Extend Farther South

NASA Image and Video Library

2015-02-17

A winter storm that moved through the Mid-Atlantic on Feb. 16 and 17, 2015 extended the northeastern U.S. snowcover farther south. Until this storm hit, southern New Jersey and southeastern Pennsylvania appeared snow-free on satellite imagery from the previous week. The overnight storm blanketed the entire states of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as seen on this Feb. 16 image. The image was taken from the MODIS or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument that flies aboard NASA's Terra satellite. The snow cover from the storm actually extended even farther south than the image. Snowfall also blanketed West Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland, Delaware and Virginia, while freezing rain and icy conditions affected the Carolinas, Tennessee and Georgia. On Feb. 17, 2015, NOAA's National Weather Service noted "The winter storm that brought widespread snow, sleet and freezing rain to parts of the south-central U.S. and Mid-Atlantic will wind down as it moves offshore Tuesday. Lingering snow and freezing rain is possible early Tuesday for parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic, with rain across parts of the Southeast." Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

The extent of wind-induced undercatch in the UK winter storms of 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pollock, Michael; Colli, Matteo; Stagnaro, Mattia; Quinn, Paul; Dutton, Mark; O'Donnell, Greg; Wilkinson, Mark; Black, Andrew; O'Connell, Enda; Lanza, Luca

2016-04-01

The most widely used device for measuring rainfall is the rain gauge, of which the tipping bucket (TBR) is the most prevalent type. Rain gauges are considered by many to be the most accurate method currently available. The data they produce are used in flood-forecasting and flood risk management, water resource management, hydrological modelling and evaluating impacts on climate change; to name but a few. Rain gauges may provide the most accurate measurement of rainfall at a point in space and time, but they are subject to errors - and some gauges are more prone than others. The most significant error is the 'wind-induced undercatch'. This is caused by the gauge itself contributing to an acceleration of the wind speed near the orifice, which disturbs and distorts the airflow. The trajectories of precipitation particles are affected, resulting in an undercatch. Results from Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations, presented herein, describe in detail the physical processes contributing to this. High resolution field measurements of rainfall and wind are collected at four field research stations in the UK. Each site is equipped with juxtaposed rain gauges with different funnel profiles, in addition to a WMO reference pit rain gauge measurement. These data describe the rainfall measurement uncertainty. The sites were selected to represent the prevalent rainfall regimes observed in the UK. Two research stations are on the west coast; which is prone to frontal weather systems and storms swept in from the Atlantic, often enhanced by orography. Two are located in the east. Rural lowland and upland areas are represented, both in the west and the east. Urban sites will also have significant undercatch problems but are outside the scope of this study. Data from the four research stations are analysed for the 2015 winter storms which caused devastating flooding in the west of the UK, particularly Cumbria and the Scottish Borders, where two of the sites are located. An

Changing response of the North Atlantic/European winter climate to the 11 year solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Hedi; Chen, Haishan; Gray, Lesley; Zhou, Liming; Li, Xing; Wang, Ruili; Zhu, Siguang

2018-03-01

Recent studies have presented conflicting results regarding the 11 year solar cycle (SC) influences on winter climate over the North Atlantic/European region. Analyses of only the most recent decades suggest a synchronized North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like response pattern to the SC. Analyses of long-term climate data sets dating back to the late 19th century, however, suggest a mean sea level pressure (mslp) response that lags the SC by 2-4 years in the southern node of the NAO (i.e. Azores region). To understand the conflicting nature and cause of these time dependencies in the SC surface response, the present study employs a lead/lag multi-linear regression technique with a sliding window of 44 years over the period 1751-2016. Results confirm previous analyses, in which the average response for the whole time period features a statistically significant 2-4 year lagged mslp response centered over the Azores region. Overall, the lagged nature of Azores mslp response is generally consistent in time. Stronger and statistically significant SC signals tend to appear in the periods when the SC forcing amplitudes are relatively larger. Individual month analysis indicates the consistent lagged response in December-January-February average arises primarily from early winter months (i.e. December and January), which has been associated with ocean feedback processes that involve reinforcement by anomalies from the previous winter. Additional analysis suggests that the synchronous NAO-like response in recent decades arises primarily from late winter (February), possibly reflecting a result of strong internal noise.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

2011-12-01

Lance F. Bosart, Heather M. Archambault, and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York The Northern Hemisphere (NH) planetary-scale circulation during winter 2009-2010 was characterized by an unusual combination of persistent high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks, manifest by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), in conjunction with a moderate El Nino event. The high-latitude blocking activity and southward-displaced storm tracks supported episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, eastern North America, and western Europe as well as anomalous warmth over northeastern Canada and Greenland that delayed sea ice formation and ice thickening in these areas during winter 2009-2010. Although somewhat less extreme than winter 2009-2010, the first half of winter 2010-2011 was also characterized by high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks (manifest by negative values of the AO) while the Pacific-North American (PNA), initially negative, became neutral in late December and most of January. Winter 2010-2011 was characterized by moderate La Nina conditions in contrast to moderate El Nino conditions that prevailed during winter 2009-2010. Despite the reversal of the ENSO phase from winter 2009-2010 to winter 2010-2011, high-latitude blocking activity and the associated southward-displaced storm tracks again allowed for episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, central and eastern North America, and western Europe with delayed sea ice formation and thickening over the Davis Strait and adjacent regions during the first half of winter 2010-2011. Beginning in late January and continuing through early February 2011 the phase of the AO and the PNA reversed with the AO and PNA becoming positive and negative, respectively. This linked AO

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos , Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L−1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m−2 h−1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iavorivska, Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L-1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m-2 h-1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Effects of sea-ice and biogeochemical processes and storms on under-ice water fCO2 during the winter-spring transition in the high Arctic Ocean: Implications for sea-air CO2 fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fransson, Agneta; Chierici, Melissa; Skjelvan, Ingunn; Olsen, Are; Assmy, Philipp; Peterson, Algot K.; Spreen, Gunnar; Ward, Brian

2017-07-01

We performed measurements of carbon dioxide fugacity (fCO2) in the surface water under Arctic sea ice from January to June 2015 during the Norwegian young sea ICE (N-ICE2015) expedition. Over this period, the ship drifted with four different ice floes and covered the deep Nansen Basin, the slopes north of Svalbard, and the Yermak Plateau. This unique winter-to-spring data set includes the first winter-time under-ice water fCO2 observations in this region. The observed under-ice fCO2 ranged between 315 µatm in winter and 153 µatm in spring, hence was undersaturated relative to the atmospheric fCO2. Although the sea ice partly prevented direct CO2 exchange between ocean and atmosphere, frequently occurring leads and breakup of the ice sheet promoted sea-air CO2 fluxes. The CO2 sink varied between 0.3 and 86 mmol C m-2 d-1, depending strongly on the open-water fractions (OW) and storm events. The maximum sea-air CO2 fluxes occurred during storm events in February and June. In winter, the main drivers of the change in under-ice water fCO2 were dissolution of CaCO3 (ikaite) and vertical mixing. In June, in addition to these processes, primary production and sea-air CO2 fluxes were important. The cumulative loss due to CaCO3 dissolution of 0.7 mol C m-2 in the upper 10 m played a major role in sustaining the undersaturation of fCO2 during the entire study. The relative effects of the total fCO2 change due to CaCO3 dissolution was 38%, primary production 26%, vertical mixing 16%, sea-air CO2 fluxes 16%, and temperature and salinity insignificant.

The evolution of synoptic ozone anomalies during the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment in winter 1991/1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zerefos, Christos S.; Balis, Dimitrios S.; Bais, Alkiviadis F.; Ziomas, Ioannis C.; Tourpali, Kleareti; Meleti, Chariklea; Tzoumaka, Paraskevi; Mantis, Homer T.; Repapis, Christos C.; Fioletov, Vitali E.

1994-01-01

The evolution of ozone anomalies over the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere during the winter 1991-1992 is studied in this work. The largest monthly mean negative deviations in the middle latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere were about 10 percent in November and December, and up to 20 percent in January, February, and March over Eurasian territories, and much smaller over the Canadian sector. At the end of January, on individual days, total ozone values of 190-210 D.U. were observed over Eastern Europe and European part of Russia, that is 40-45 percent below normal. On the whole, the 1991-1992 winter was one of the most anomalous over all the period of ozone observations. Finally, an attempt is made to quantify the contribution of transport in the ozone layer changes over Europe during this period.

Fatal Canine Intoxications Linked to the Presence of Saxitoxins in Stranded Marine Organisms Following Winter Storm Activity

PubMed Central

Turner, Andrew D.; Dhanji-Rapkova, Monika; Dean, Karl; Milligan, Steven; Hamilton, Mike; Thomas, Julie; Poole, Chris; Haycock, Jo; Spelman-Marriott, Jo; Watson, Alice; Hughes, Katherine; Marr, Bridget; Dixon, Alan; Coates, Lewis

2018-01-01

At the start of 2018, multiple incidents of dog illnesses were reported following consumption of marine species washed up onto the beaches of eastern England after winter storms. Over a two-week period, nine confirmed illnesses including two canine deaths were recorded. Symptoms in the affected dogs included sickness, loss of motor control, and muscle paralysis. Samples of flatfish, starfish, and crab from the beaches in the affected areas were analysed for a suite of naturally occurring marine neurotoxins of dinoflagellate origin. Toxins causing paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) were detected and quantified using two independent chemical testing methods in samples of all three marine types, with concentrations over 14,000 µg saxitoxin (STX) eq/kg found in one starfish sample. Further evidence for PSP intoxication of the dogs was obtained with the positive identification of PSP toxins in a vomited crab sample from one deceased dog and in gastrointestinal samples collected post mortem from a second affected dog. Together, this is the first report providing evidence of starfish being implicated in a PSP intoxication case and the first report of PSP in canines. PMID:29495385

Stochastic Modeling of Empirical Storm Loss in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prahl, B. F.; Rybski, D.; Kropp, J. P.; Burghoff, O.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Based on German insurance loss data for residential property we derive storm damage functions that relate daily loss with maximum gust wind speed. Over a wide range of loss, steep power law relationships are found with spatially varying exponents ranging between approximately 8 and 12. Global correlations between parameters and socio-demographic data are employed to reduce the number of local parameters to 3. We apply a Monte Carlo approach to calculate German loss estimates including confidence bounds in daily and annual resolution. Our model reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over a wide range of magnitude.

Numerical Modeling of Coastal Inundation and Sedimentation by Storm Surge, Tides, and Waves at Norfolk, Virginia, USA

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-07-01

hurricanes (tropical) with a 50-year and a 100-year return period, and one winter storm ( extratropical ) occurred in October 1982. There are a total of 15...under the 0-m and 2-m SLR scenarios, respectively. • Tropical and extratropical storms induce extensive coastal inundation around the military...1 NUMERICAL MODELING OF COASTAL INUNDATION AND SEDIMENTATION BY STORM SURGE, TIDES, AND WAVES AT NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, USA Honghai Li 1 , Lihwa Lin 1

Evaluation of ikonos satellite imagery for detecting ice storm damage to oak forests in Eastern Kentucky

Treesearch

W. Henry McNab; Tracy Roof

2006-01-01

Ice storms are a recurring landscape-scale disturbance in the eastern U.S. where they may cause varying levels of damage to upland hardwood forests. High-resolution Ikonos imagery and semiautomated detection of ice storm damage may be an alternative to manually interpreted aerial photography. We evaluated Ikonos multispectral, winter and summer imagery as a tool for...

An evaluation of winter operational runway friction measurement equipment, procedures and research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-25

For many years, the aviation community has struggled with runway friction reporting practices. Airport operations personnel, in taking on the responsibility for conducting friction measurements during winter storms, work diligently to keep up with ra...

Assessing storm events for energy meteorology: using media and scientific reports to track a North Sea autumn storm.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kettle, Anthony

2016-04-01

Important issues for energy meteorology are to assess meteorological conditions for normal operating conditions and extreme events for the ultimate limit state of engineering structures. For the offshore environment in northwest Europe, energy meteorology encompasses weather conditions relevant for petroleum production infrastructure and also the new field of offshore wind energy production. Autumn and winter storms are an important issue for offshore operations in the North Sea. The weather in this region is considered as challenging for extreme meteorological events as the Gulf of Mexico with its attendant hurricane risk. The rise of the Internet and proliferation of digital recording devices has placed a much greater amount of information in the public domain than was available to national meteorological agencies even 20 years ago. This contribution looks at reports of meteorology and infrastructure damage from a storm in the autumn of 2006 to trace the spatial and temporal record of meteorological events. Media reports give key information to assess the events of the storm. The storm passed over northern Europe between Oct.31-Nov. 2, 2006, and press reports from the time indicate that its most important feature was a high surge that inundated coastal areas. Sections of the Dutch and German North Sea coast were affected, and there was record flooding in Denmark and East Germany in the southern Baltic Sea. Extreme wind gusts were also reported that were strong enough to damage roofs and trees, and there was even tornado recorded near the Dutch-German border. Offshore, there were a series of damage reports from ship and platforms that were linked with sea state, and reports of rogue waves were explicitly mentioned. Many regional government authorities published summaries of geophysical information related to the storm, and these form part of a regular series of online winter storm reports that started as a public service about 15 years ago. Depending on the

High-latitude topside ionospheric vertical electron density profile changes in response to large magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2016-05-01

Large magnetic-storm-induced changes were detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron density profiles Ne(h) in a database of profiles and digital topside ionograms, from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program, that enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained in nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm (Dst < -100 nT). Storms where Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere had better coverage of solar wind parameters than storms with available Ne(h) profiles in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during all storms, with enhancements and depletions sometimes near a factor of 10 and 0.1, respectively, but with substantial differences in the responses in the two hemispheres. Large spatial and/or temporal Ne(h) changes were often observed during Dst minimum and during the storm recovery phase. The storm-induced Ne(h) changes were the most pronounced and consistent in the Northern Hemisphere in that large enhancements were observed during winter nighttime and large depletions during winter and spring daytime. The limited available cases suggested that these Northern Hemisphere enhancements increased with increases of the time-shifted solar wind velocity v, magnetic field B, and with more negative values of the B components except for the highest common altitude (1100 km) of the profiles. There was also some evidence suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere depletions were related to changes in the solar wind parameters. Southern Hemisphere storm-induced enhancements and depletions were typically considerably less with depletions observed during summer nighttime conditions and enhancements during summer daytime and fall nighttime conditions.

High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron Density Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2016-01-01

Large magnetic-storm-induced changes were detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron density profiles Ne(h) in a database of profiles and digital topside ionograms, from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program, that enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained in nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm (Dst -100nT). Storms where Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude Northern Hemisphere had better coverage of solar wind parameters than storms with available Ne(h) profiles in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during all storms, with enhancements and depletions sometimes near a factor of 10 and 0.1, respectively, but with substantial differences in the responses in the two hemispheres. Large spatial andor temporal Ne(h) changes were often observed during Dst minimum and during the storm recovery phase. The storm-induced Ne(h) changes were the most pronounced and consistent in the Northern Hemisphere in that large enhancements were observed during winter nighttime and large depletions during winter and spring daytime. The limited available cases suggested that these Northern Hemisphere enhancements increased with increases of the time-shifted solar wind velocity v, magnetic field B, and with more negative values of the B components except for the highest common altitude (1100km) of the profiles. There was also some evidence suggesting that the Northern Hemisphere depletions were related to changes in the solar wind parameters. Southern Hemisphere storm-induced enhancements and depletions were typically considerably less with depletions observed during summer nighttime conditions and enhancements during summer daytime and fall nighttime conditions.

Predictability of ENSO, the QBO, and European winter 2015/16

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scaife, A. A.; Ineson, S.; Ruth, C.; Dunstone, N. J.; Fereday, D.; Folland, C. K.; Good, E.; Gordon, M.; Hermanson, L.; Karpechko, A.; Knight, J. R.; MacLachlan, C.; Maidens, A. V.; Peterson, A.; Slingo, J.; Smith, D.; Walker, B.

2016-12-01

The northern winter of 2015/16 gave rise to the strongest El Niño event since 1997/8. Central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies exceeded three degrees and closely resembled the strong El Niño in winter of 1982/3. A second feature of this winter was a strong westerly phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation and very strong winds in the stratospheric polar night jet. At the surface, intense extratropical circulation anomalies occurred in both the North Pacific and North Atlantic that were consistent with known teleconnections to the observed phases of ENSO and the QBO. The North Atlantic Oscillation was very positive in the early winter period (Nov-Dec) and was more blocked in the late winter. Initialised climate predictions were able to capture these signals at seasonal lead times. This case study adds to the evidence that north Atlantic circulation exhibits predictability on seasonal timescales, and in this case we show that even aspects of the detailed pattern and sub-seasonal evolution were predicted, providing warning of increased risk of extreme events such as the intense rainfall which caused extreme flooding in the UK in December.

Major dust storms and westward traveling waves on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Huiqun

2017-04-01

Westward traveling waves are observed during major dust storm periods in northern fall and winter. The close correlation in timing makes westward traveling wave one of the signature responses of the Martian atmosphere to major dust storms. Westward traveling waves are dominated by zonal wave number m = 1 in the middle atmosphere and are typically characterized by long wave period. They are associated with significant temperature perturbations near the edge of the north polar vortex. Their wind signals extend to the low latitudes and the southern hemisphere. Their eddy momentum and heat fluxes exhibit complex patterns on a global scale in the middle atmosphere.

Storm surge along the Pacific coast of North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bromirski, Peter D.; Flick, Reinhard E.; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-01-01

Storm surge is an important factor that contributes to coastal flooding and erosion. Storm surge magnitude along eastern North Pacific coasts results primarily from low sea level pressure (SLP). Thus, coastal regions where high surge occurs identify the dominant locations where intense storms make landfall, controlled by storm track across the North Pacific. Here storm surge variability along the Pacific coast of North America is characterized by positive nontide residuals at a network of tide gauge stations from southern California to Alaska. The magnitudes of mean and extreme storm surge generally increase from south to north, with typically high amplitude surge north of Cape Mendocino and lower surge to the south. Correlation of mode 1 nontide principal component (PC1) during winter months (December-February) with anomalous SLP over the northeast Pacific indicates that the dominant storm landfall region is along the Cascadia/British Columbia coast. Although empirical orthogonal function spatial patterns show substantial interannual variability, similar correlation patterns of nontide PC1 over the 1948-1975 and 1983-2014 epochs with anomalous SLP suggest that, when considering decadal-scale time periods, storm surge and associated tracks have generally not changed appreciably since 1948. Nontide PC1 is well correlated with PC1 of both anomalous SLP and modeled wave height near the tide gauge stations, reflecting the interrelationship between storms, surge, and waves. Weaker surge south of Cape Mendocino during the 2015-2016 El Niño compared with 1982-1983 may result from changes in Hadley circulation. Importantly from a coastal impacts perspective, extreme storm surge events are often accompanied by high waves.

Effect of the El Nino/southern oscillation on Gulf of Mexico, winter, frontal-wave cyclones: 1960-1989. (Volumes I and II)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Manty, R.E.

Seasonal counts of frontal-wave cyclones forming over the Gulf of Mexico and its coastal plain show more storms in the five El Nino winters and fewer storms in the eight La Nina winters, from 1960 to 1989, significant at the .01 level by a rank sum test. This is corroborated by two results. First, during the same period, the frequency of frontal-overrunning weather conditions in the region, indicative of storms, was higher in El Nino winters and lower in La Nina winters. Second, 100 years of precipitation and temperature records show wetter, cooler El Nino winters and drier, warmer Lamore » Nina winters at gulf-region land stations and climatic divisions. A threefold explanation, based on National Meteorological Center, upper-air data, is offered for the greater frequency of gulf-region cyclogenesis during El Nino winters between 1960 and 1989. (1) The winter, mean, 250-mb jet over the southern US is intensified by 5 to 10 ms[sup [minus]1] and displaced southward between 110[degrees] and 75[degrees]W by an average of 200 to 285 km during the five El Nino winters. This implies stronger and more frequent episodes of jet-associated, upper-level troughing and divergence over the region, reinforcing surface, frontal-wave cyclones. (2) In the five El Nino winters between 1963 and 1989, seasonal average heights and temperatures of the 850-, 700-, 500-, and 200-mb surfaces are lower over the region than they are in non-El Nino winters. This implies more-common presence of cold, low-pressure troughs at upper levels, reinforcing surface cyclones. (3) A 10[degrees] eastward shift, at sea level, of the western edge of the Bermuda high during the eight El Nino winters, changes normally due-easterly trades in the northwestern Caribbean Sea to slightly south of east, allowing greater advection of moisture and heat into the gulf from the tropics, preconditioning the area for development of surface cyclones. Only winter season shows all three conditions and an increase in

Occurrence and transport of diazinon in the Sacramento River, California, and selected tributaries during three winter storms, January-February 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dileanis, Peter D.; Bennett, Kevin P.; Domagalski, Joseph L.

2002-01-01

The organophosphate pesticide diazinon is applied as a dormant orchard spray in the Sacramento Valley, California, during the winter when the area receives a majority of its annual rainfall. Dormant spray pesticides, thus, have the potential to wash off the areas of application and migrate with storm runoff to streams in the Sacramento River Basin. Previous monitoring studies have shown that rain and associated runoff from winter storms plays an important role in the transport of diazinon from point of application to the Sacramento River and tributaries. Between January 30 and February 25, 2000, diazinon concentrations in the Sacramento River and selected tributaries were monitored on 5 consecutive days during each of three winter storms that moved through the Sacramento Valley after diazinon had been applied to orchards in the basin. Water samples were collected at 17 sites chosen to represent the effect of upstream land use at local and regional scales. Most samples were analyzed using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Analysis by gas chromatography with electron capture detector and thermionic specific detector (GC/ECD/TSD) and gas chromatography with mass spectrometry (GC/MS) was done on split replicates from over 30 percent of the samples to confirm ELISA results and to provide lower analytical reporting limits at selected sites [30 ng/L (nanogram per liter) for ELISA, 20 ng/L for GC/ECD/TSD, and 2 ng/L for GC/MS]. Concentrations determined from ELISA analyses were consistently higher than concentrations for split samples analyzed by gas chromatography methods. Because of bias between diazinon concentrations using ELISA and gas chromatography methods, results from ELISA analyses were not compared to water-quality criteria. Load calculations using the ELISA analyses are similarly biased. Because the bias was consistent, however, the ELISA data is useful in site-to-site comparisons used to rank the relative levels and contributions of diazinon from

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

Winter Is Coming: Seasonal Variation in Resting Metabolic Rate of the European Badger (Meles meles)

PubMed Central

McClune, David W.; Kostka, Berit; Delahay, Richard J.; Montgomery, W. Ian; Marks, Nikki J.; Scantlebury, David M.

2015-01-01

Resting metabolic rate (RMR) is a measure of the minimum energy requirements of an animal at rest, and can give an indication of the costs of somatic maintenance. We measured RMR of free-ranging European badgers (Meles meles) to determine whether differences were related to sex, age and season. Badgers were captured in live-traps and placed individually within a metabolic chamber maintained at 20 ± 1°C. Resting metabolic rate was determined using an open-circuit respirometry system. Season was significantly correlated with RMR, but no effects of age or sex were detected. Summer RMR values were significantly higher than winter values (mass-adjusted mean ± standard error: 2366 ± 70 kJ⋅d−1; 1845 ± 109 kJ⋅d−1, respectively), with the percentage difference being 24.7%. While under the influence of anaesthesia, RMR was estimated to be 25.5% lower than the combined average value before administration, and after recovery from anaesthesia. Resting metabolic rate during the autumn and winter was not significantly different to allometric predictions of basal metabolic rate for mustelid species weighing 1 kg or greater, but badgers measured in the summer had values that were higher than predicted. Results suggest that a seasonal reduction in RMR coincides with apparent reductions in physical activity and body temperature as part of the overwintering strategy (‘winter lethargy’) in badgers. This study contributes to an expanding dataset on the ecophysiology of medium-sized carnivores, and emphasises the importance of considering season when making predictions of metabolic rate. PMID:26352150

Sleep characteristics, chronotype and winter depression in 10-20-year-olds in northern European Russia.

PubMed

Borisenkov, Mikhail F; Petrova, Natalia B; Timonin, Vladimir D; Fradkova, Lyudmila I; Kolomeichuk, Sergey N; Kosova, Anna L; Kasyanova, Olga N

2015-06-01

The purpose of this work was to examine the relationships between geographical coordinates and the prevalence of winter depression (SADW ), and to compare the sleep characteristics and chronotype of youths with and without SADW . We conducted a cross-sectional study of self-reported sleep characteristics, chronotype and winter depression in northern European Russia. Two questionnaires, the Munich Chronotype Questionnaire (MCTQ) and the Seasonal Pattern Assessment Questionnaire (SPAQ), were administered to a total of 3435 adolescents aged 10-20 years (1517 males and 1918 females). The prevalence of SADW in the study population was 8.4% and sub-SADW 11.8%. Four variables predicted the likelihood of SADW in youths: sex [higher in females: odds ratio (OR): 1.87, P < 0.0001], age (increases with age: OR: 1.09, P < 0.001), latitude (higher in the North: OR: 1.49, P < 0.029) and position in the time zone (higher in the West: OR: 1.61, P < 0.001). Later sleeping and waking, longer sleep latencies, more severe sleep inertia, shorter total sleep times and lower sleep efficiencies were observed in both males and females with SADW . The influence of SADW on sleep characteristics was more pronounced on school days. Significant phase delays of the sleep-wake rhythm and severe social jetlag (the difference between the mid-point of sleep phase at weekends and on workdays) were observed in females with SADW , but not in males. There are significant differences in sleep characteristics and chronotype between people with SADW and no-SAD. We demonstrate that both latitude of residence and location within the time zone are significant predictors of SADW in young inhabitants of the North. © 2014 European Sleep Research Society.

Structural Variability of Tropospheric Growth Factors Transforming Mid-latitude Cyclones to Severe Storms over the North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2015-04-01

The development of European surface wind storms out of normal mid-latitude cyclones is substantially influenced by upstream tropospheric growth factors over the Northern Atlantic. The main factors include divergence and vorticity advection in the upper troposphere, latent heat release and the presence of instabilities of short baroclinic waves of suitable wave lengths. In this study we examine a subset of these potential growth factors and their related influences on the transformation of extra-tropical cyclones into severe damage prone surface storm systems. Previous studies have shown links between specific growth factors and surface wind storms related to extreme cyclones. In our study we investigate in further detail spatial and temporal variability patterns of these upstream processes at different vertical levels of the troposphere. The analyses will comprise of the three growth factors baroclinicity, latent heat release and upper tropospheric divergence. Our definition of surface wind storms is based on the Storm Severity Index (SSI) alongside a wind tracking algorithm identifying areas of exceedances of the local 98th percentile of the 10m wind speed. We also make use of a well-established extra-tropical cyclone identification and tracking algorithm. These cyclone tracks form the base for a composite analysis of the aforementioned growth factors using ERA-Interim Reanalysis from 1979 - 2014 for the extended winter season (ONDJFM). Our composite analysis corroborates previous similar studies but extends them by using an impact based algorithm for the identification of strong wind systems. Based on this composite analysis we further identify variability patterns for each growth factor most important for the transformation of a cyclone into a surface wind storm. We thus also address the question whether the link between storm intensity and related growth factor anomaly taking into account its spatial variability is stable and can be quantified. While the

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Defining Coastal Storm and Quantifying Storms Applying Coastal Storm Impulse Parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahmoudpour, Nader

2014-05-01

What defines a storm condition and what would initiate a "storm" has not been uniquely defined among scientists and engineers. Parameters that have been used to define a storm condition can be mentioned as wind speed, beach erosion and storm hydrodynamics parameters such as wave height and water levels. Some of the parameters are storm consequential such as beach erosion and some are not directly related to the storm hydrodynamics such as wind speed. For the purpose of the presentation, the different storm conditions based on wave height, water levels, wind speed and beach erosion will be discussed and assessed. However, it sounds more scientifically to have the storm definition based on the hydrodynamic parameters such as wave height, water level and storm duration. Once the storm condition is defined and storm has initiated, the severity of the storm would be a question to forecast and evaluate the hazard and analyze the risk in order to determine the appropriate responses. The correlation of storm damages to the meteorological and hydrodynamics parameters can be defined as a storm scale, storm index or storm parameter and it is needed to simplify the complexity of variation involved developing the scale for risk analysis and response management. A newly introduced Coastal Storm Impulse (COSI) parameter quantifies storms into one number for a specific location and storm event. The COSI parameter is based on the conservation of linear, horizontal momentum to combine storm surge, wave dynamics, and currents over the storm duration. The COSI parameter applies the principle of conservation of momentum to physically combine the hydrodynamic variables per unit width of shoreline. This total momentum is then integrated over the duration of the storm to determine the storm's impulse to the coast. The COSI parameter employs the mean, time-averaged nonlinear (Fourier) wave momentum flux, over the wave period added to the horizontal storm surge momentum above the Mean High

Major winter and nonwinter floods in selected basins in New York and Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langbein, Walter Basil

1947-01-01

The scientific design of flood-control works is based on an evaluation of the hydrologic factors basic to flood events, particularly how rainfall and snow runoff, soil conditions, and channel influences can combine to produce greater or lesser floods. For this purpose an analysis of the pertinent hydrologic data is needed. The methods of analysis adopted should conform as closely as possible to those already in use and must be adapted to the quality of the available information. Maximum floods in 8 basins in New York and Pennsylvania during the winter and nonwinter months were studied, a total of 21 floods. The most outstanding winter flood of record in the North Atlantic region was that of March 1936. Rainfall plus snow melt in the basins studied ranged between 3.04 and 6.87 inches, and associated volumes of direct runoff from 1.88 to 5.63 inches. Winter floods have a common characteristic in their relation to freezing temperature. The antecedent periods, representing a period of snow accumulation and frost penetration, are below freezing, and the flood itself is contemporaneous with a period of above-freezing temperatures, usually associated with rain, during which the previously accumulated snow is melted. A second common characteristic of major winter floods is their tendency to be associated with widespread causal meteorologic conditions. There was a more complete conversion of rainfall and snow melt into runoff during the winter storms studied than during the wettest nonwinter flood. Snow melt during winter floods ranged from 0.04 to 0.07 inch per degree-day above 32° F. The depth of mean areal rainfall produced by the nonwinter storms studied ranged from 3.05 to 4.96 inches. The maximum 24-hour quantity at single stations was 14 inches, which was measured during the storm of July 1935 in New York. The volume of direct runoff ranged between 1.39 and 3.41 inches. The portion of rainfall that was converted into runoff varied in accordance with the rate of

Migratory connectivity and effects of winter temperatures on migratory behaviour of the European robin Erithacus rubecula: a continent-wide analysis.

PubMed

Ambrosini, Roberto; Cuervo, José Javier; du Feu, Chris; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Musitelli, Federica; Rubolini, Diego; Sicurella, Beatrice; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola; Møller, Anders Pape

2016-05-01

Many partially migratory species show phenotypically divergent populations in terms of migratory behaviour, with climate hypothesized to be a major driver of such variability through its differential effects on sedentary and migratory individuals. Based on long-term (1947-2011) bird ringing data, we analysed phenotypic differentiation of migratory behaviour among populations of the European robin Erithacus rubecula across Europe. We showed that clusters of populations sharing breeding and wintering ranges varied from partial (British Isles and Western Europe, NW cluster) to completely migratory (Scandinavia and north-eastern Europe, NE cluster). Distance migrated by birds of the NE (but not of the NW) cluster decreased through time because of a north-eastwards shift in the wintering grounds. Moreover, when winter temperatures in the breeding areas were cold, individuals from the NE cluster also migrated longer distances, while those of the NW cluster moved over shorter distances. Climatic conditions may therefore affect migratory behaviour of robins, although large geographical variation in response to climate seems to exist. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Winter precipitation trends for two selected European regions over the last 500 years and their possible dynamical background

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matti, C.; Pauling, A.; Küttel, M.; Wanner, H.

2009-01-01

We analyse winter (DJF) precipitation over the last 500 years on trends using a spatially and temporally highly resolved gridded multi-proxy reconstruction over European land areas. The trends are detected applying trend matrices, and the significance is assessed with the Mann-Kendall-trend test. Results are presented for southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco, two regions that show high reconstruction skill over the entire period. The absolute trend values found in the second part of the 20th century are unprecedented over the last 500 years in both regions. During the period 1715-1765, the precipitation trends were most pronounced in southwestern Norway as well as southern Spain/northern Morocco, with first a distinct negative trend followed by a positive countertrend of similar strength. Relating the precipitation time series to variations of the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) and the solar irradiance using running correlations revealed a couple of instationarities. Nevertheless, it appears that the NAO is responsible in both regions for most of the significant winter precipitation trends during the earlier centuries as well as during recent decades. Some of the significant winter precipitation trends over southwestern Norway and southern Spain/northern Morocco might be related to changes in the solar irradiance.

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.

Severe Storms Branch research report (April 1984 April 1985)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dubach, L. (Editor)

1985-01-01

The Mesoscale Atmospheric Processes Research Program is a program of integrated studies which are to achieve an improved understanding of the basic behavior of the atmosphere through the use of remotely sensed data and space technology. The program consist of four elements: (1) special observations and analysis of mesoscale systems; (20 the development of quanitative algorithms to use remotely sensed observations; (3) the development of new observing systems; and (4) numerical modeling. The Severe Storms Branch objectives are the improvement of the understanding, diagnosis, and prediction of a wide range of atmospheric storms, which includes severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flash floods, tropical cyclones, and winter snowstorms. The research often shed light upon various aspects of local weather, such as fog, sea breezes, air pollution, showers, and other products of nonsevere cumulus cloud clusters. The part of the program devoted to boundary layer processes, gust front interactions, and soil moisture detection from satellites gives insights into storm growth and behavior.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by

Mobility of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures: Impact of waves, currents and storm events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joshi, Siddhi; Duffy, Garret Patrick; Brown, Colin

2017-04-01

Maerl beds are free-living, non-geniculate coralline algae habitats which form biogenic reefs with high micro-scale complexity supporting a diversity and abundance of rare epifauna and epiflora. These habitats are highly mobile in shallow marine environments where substantial maerl beds co-exist with siliciclastic sediment, exemplified by our study site of Galway Bay. Coupled hydrodynamic-wave-sediment transport models have been used to explore the transport patterns of maerl-siliciclastic sediment during calm summer conditions and severe winter storms. The sediment distribution is strongly influenced by storm waves even in water depths greater than 100 m. Maerl is present at the periphery of wave-induced residual current gyres during storm conditions. A combined wave-current Sediment Mobility Index during storm conditions shows correlation with multibeam backscatter and surficial sediment distribution. A combined wave-current Mobilization Frequency Index during storm conditions acts as a physical surrogate for the presence of maerl-siliciclastic mixtures in Galway Bay. Both indices can provide useful integrated oceanographic and sediment information to complement coupled numerical hydrodynamic, sediment transport and erosion-deposition models.

[The high-molecular glutenins of the soft winter wheats from European countries and their relationship to the glutenin composition of the ancient and modern wheat varieties of Ukraine].

PubMed

Rabinovich, S V; Fedak, G; Lukov, O

2000-01-01

The sources of high-quality components of HMW glutenines determining grain quality, as initial material for breeding in the conditions of Ukraine were revealed on the base of analysis of 75 literature sources data about composition of high-molecular weight (HMW) glutenin and pedigrees of 598 European wheats from 12 countries, bred in 1923-1997, including, 449 cultivars from West and 149 East Europe. Origin of these components was observed in varieties of Great Britain, France and Germany from ancient Ukrainian wheat Red Fife and it derivative spring wheats of Canada--Marquis, Garnet, Regent, Saunders, Selkirk and of USA--spring wheat Thatcher and winter wheats--Kanred and Oro--as directly as via cultivars of European countries and Australia; in wheats of East European countries from winter wheats Myronivs'ka 808 and Bezostaya 1 (derivative of Ukrainian cultivars Ukrainka and Krymka) and their descendants; in wheats of Austria and Italy--from the both genetical sources.

A storm severity index based on return levels of wind speeds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Nissen, Katrin M.; Ulbrich, Uwe

2015-04-01

European windstorms related to extra-tropical cyclones cause considerable damages to infrastructure during the winter season. Leckebusch et al. (2008) introduced a storm severity index (SSI) based on the exceedances of the local 98th percentile of wind speeds. The SSI is based on the assumption that (insured) damage usually occurs within the upper 2%-quantile of the local wind speed distribution (i.e. if the 98th percentile is exceeded). However, critical infrastructure, for example related to the power network or the transportation system, is usually designed to withstand wind speeds reaching the local 50-year return level, which is much higher than the 98th percentile. The aim of this work is to use the 50-year return level to develop a modified SSI, which takes into account only extreme wind speeds relevant to critical infrastructure. As a first step we use the block maxima approach to estimate the spatial distribution of return levels by fitting the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to the wind speeds retrieved from different reanalysis products. We show that the spatial distributions of the 50-year return levels derived from different reanalyses agree well within large parts of Europe. The differences between the reanalyses are largely within the range of the uncertainty intervals of the estimated return levels. As a second step the exceedances of the 50-year return level are evaluated and compared to the exceedances of the 98th percentiles for different extreme European windstorms. The areas where the wind speeds exceed the 50-year return level in the reanalysis data do largely agree with the areas where the largest damages were reported, e.g. France in the case of "Lothar" and "Martin" and Central Europe in the case of "Kyrill". Leckebusch, G. C., Renggli, D., & Ulbrich, U. (2008). Development and application of an objective storm severity measure for the Northeast Atlantic region. Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 17(5), 575-587.

On the improvement of wave and storm surge hindcasts by downscaled atmospheric forcing: application to historical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bresson, Émilie; Arbogast, Philippe; Aouf, Lotfi; Paradis, Denis; Kortcheva, Anna; Bogatchev, Andrey; Galabov, Vasko; Dimitrova, Marieta; Morvan, Guillaume; Ohl, Patrick; Tsenova, Boryana; Rabier, Florence

2018-04-01

Winds, waves and storm surges can inflict severe damage in coastal areas. In order to improve preparedness for such events, a better understanding of storm-induced coastal flooding episodes is necessary. To this end, this paper highlights the use of atmospheric downscaling techniques in order to improve wave and storm surge hindcasts. The downscaling techniques used here are based on existing European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalyses (ERA-20C, ERA-40 and ERA-Interim). The results show that the 10 km resolution data forcing provided by a downscaled atmospheric model gives a better wave and surge hindcast compared to using data directly from the reanalysis. Furthermore, the analysis of the most extreme mid-latitude cyclones indicates that a four-dimensional blending approach improves the whole process, as it assimilates more small-scale processes in the initial conditions. Our approach has been successfully applied to ERA-20C (the 20th century reanalysis).

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

PubMed

Dannenberg, Matthew P; Wise, Erika K

2017-11-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks. �

Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chang, Edmund Kar-Man

The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonalmore » skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks« less

(abstract) Using GPS Measurements to Identify Global Ionospheric Storms in Near Real-Time

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ho, C. M.; Mannucci, A. J.; Lindqwister, U. J.; Rao, A. M.; Pi, X.; Wilson, B. D.; Yuan, D. N.; Reyes, M.

1996-01-01

The solar wind interacts with the Earth's magnetosphere, eventually dissipating energy into the ionosphere and atmosphere. As a terminator, the ionosphere responds to magnetic storms, which is very important in understanding the energy coupling process between the Sun and the Earth and in forecasting space weather changes.The worldwide GPS network, for the first time, makes near real-time global ionospheric TEC measurements a possibility. Based on these measurements, global ionospheric TEC maps are generated with time resolution of from 5 minutes to hours. Using these maps, we can analyze the global evolution of ionospheric storms on temporal and spatial scales, which have been dificult to study before. We find that for certain types of storms (such as TID-driven), it is possible to identify them near onset and issue warning signals during the early stages. Main attention has been paid on northern hemispheric winter storms. Their common features and physical mechanisms are being investigated.

Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

2011-01-01

The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

Early density management of longleaf pine reduces susceptibility to ice storm damage

Treesearch

Timothy B. Harrington; Thaddeus A. Harrington

2016-01-01

The Pax winter storm of February 2014 caused widespread damage to forest stands throughout the southeastern U.S. In a long-term study of savanna plant community restoration at the Savannah River Site, Aiken, SC, precommercial thinning (PCT) of 8- to 11-year-old plantations of longleaf pine (Pinus palustris) in 1994 reduced...

Seasonal Variations in Survival of Indicator Bacteria in Soil and Their Contribution to Storm-water Pollution

PubMed Central

Van Donsel, Dale J.; Geldreich, Edwin E.; Clarke, Norman A.

1967-01-01

Survival of a fecal coliform (Escherichia coli) and a fecal streptococcus (Streptococcus faecalis var. liquifaciens) was studied through several years at shaded and exposed outdoor soil plots. Death rates for both organisms were calculated for the different seasons at both sites. The 90% reduction times for the fecal coliform ranged from 3.3 days in summer to 13.4 days in autumn. For the fecal streptococcus, 90% reduction times were from 2.7 days in summer to 20.1 days in winter. During summer, the fecal coliform survived slightly longer than the fecal streptococcus; during autumn, survival was the same; and in spring and winter the fecal streptococcus survived much longer than the fecal coliform. Both organisms were isolated from storm-water runoff collected below a sampling site when counts were sufficiently high in soil. Isolation was more frequent during prolonged rains, lasting up to 10 days, than during short rain storms. There was evidence of aftergrowth of nonfecal coliforms in the soil as a result of temperature and rainfall variations. Such aftergrowth may contribute to variations in bacterial count of storm-water runoff which have no relation to the sanitary history of the drainage area. PMID:16349746

Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

2017-08-01

Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

Winter in Northern Europe (WINE). The project Winter in Northern Europe (MAP/WINE): Introduction and outlook

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vonzahn, U.

1989-01-01

The project Winter in Northern Europe (WINE) of the international Middle Atmosphere Program (MAP) comprised a multinational study of the structure, dynamics and composition of the middle atmosphere in winter at high latitudes. Coordinated field measurements were performed during the winter 1983 to 1984 by a large number of ground-based, air-borne, rocket-borne and satellite-borne instruments. Many of the individual experiments were performed in the European sector of the high latitude and polar atmosphere. Studies of the stratosphere, were, in addition, expanded to hemispheric scales by the use of data obtained from remotely sensing satellites. Beyond its direct scientific results, which are reviewed, MAP/WINE has stimulated quite a number of follow-on experiments and projects which address the aeronomy of the middle atmosphere at high and polar latitudes.

Sports injuries and illnesses during the 2015 Winter European Youth Olympic Festival.

PubMed

Ruedl, G; Schnitzer, M; Kirschner, W; Spiegel, R; Platzgummer, H; Kopp, M; Burtscher, M; Pocecco, E

2016-05-01

The prevention of injury and illness remains an important issue among young elite athletes. Systematic surveillance of injuries and illnesses during multi-sport events might provide a valuable basis to develop preventive measures, focusing especially on adequate information for youth athletes. To analyse the frequencies and characteristics of injuries and illnesses during the 2015 Winter European Youth Olympic Festival (W-EYOF). All National Olympic Committees were asked to report daily the occurrence or non-occurrence of newly sustained injuries and illnesses on a standardised reporting form. Among the 899 registered athletes (37% female) with a mean age of 17.1±0.8 years, a total of 38 injuries and 34 illnesses during the 5 competition days of the W-EYOF were reported, resulting in an incidence of 42.3 injuries and 37.8 illnesses per 1000 athletes, respectively. Injury frequency was highest in snowboard cross (11%), Nordic combined (9%), alpine skiing (6%), and ice hockey (6%), taking into account the respective number of registered athletes. In snowboard cross, females showed a significant higher injury frequency compared to males (22% vs 4%, p=0.033). The lower back (16%), the pelvis (13%), the knee (11%), and the face (11%) were the most common injury locations. About 58% of injuries occurred in competition and about 42% in training. In total, 42% of injuries resulted in an absence of training or competition. The prevalence of illness was highest in figure skating (10%) and Nordic combined (9%), and the respiratory system was affected most often (53%). Four per cent of the athletes suffered from an injury and 4% from illnesses during the 2015 W-EYOF, which is about twofold lower compared to the first Winter Youth Olympic Games in 2012. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Effect high intensity storms on soil slippage on mountainous watersheds in Southern California

Treesearch

R. M. Rice; G. T. Foggin

1971-01-01

The conversion of brush areas to grassland increased soil slip erosion on mountainous watersheds in southern California during the intense winter storms of 1969. The incidence of soil slippage, site factors affecting slope stability, and amount of debris generated by slippage were investigated for sample brush and grass areas in the San Dimas Experimental Forest. Soil...

How maize monoculture and increasing winter rainfall have brought the hibernating European hamster to the verge of extinction.

PubMed

Tissier, Mathilde L; Handrich, Yves; Robin, Jean-Patrice; Weitten, Mathieu; Pevet, Paul; Kourkgy, Charlotte; Habold, Caroline

2016-05-06

Over the last decades, climate change and agricultural intensification have been identified as two major phenomena negatively affecting biodiversity. However, little is known about their effects on the life-history traits of hibernating species living in agro-ecosystems. The European hamster (Cricetus cricetus), once a common rodent on agricultural land, is now on the verge of extinction in France. Despite the implemented measures for its protection, populations are still in sharp decline but the reasons for it remain unclear. To investigate how environmental change has affected this hibernating rodent, we used a data set based on 1468 recordings of hamster body mass at emergence from hibernation from 1937 to 2014. We reveal the adverse effects of increasing winter rainfall and maize monoculture intensification on the body mass of wild hamsters. Given the links that exist between body mass, reproductive success and population dynamics in mammals, these results are of particular importance to understand the decline of this species. In view of the rates of maize monoculture intensification and the predicted increase in winter rainfall, it is of the utmost importance to improve land management in Western Europe to avoid the extinction of this species.

Overview and first results of the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX): a field campaign to observe the formation of gusts using a Doppler lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Wieser, Andreas; Adler, Bianca; Corsmeier, Ulrich; Knippertz, Peter

2018-05-01

Wind gusts are responsible for most damages in winter storms over central Europe, but capturing their small scale and short duration is a challenge for both models and observations. This motivated the Wind and Storms Experiment (WASTEX) dedicated to investigate the formation of gusts during the passage of extratropical cyclones. The field campaign took place during the winter 2016-2017 on a former waste deposit located close to Karlsruhe in the Upper Rhine Valley in southwest Germany. Twelve extratropical cyclones were sampled during WASTEX with a Doppler lidar system performing vertical scans in the mean wind direction and complemented with a Doppler C-band radar and a 200 m instrumented tower. First results are provided here for the three most intense storms and include a potential sting jet, a unique direct observation of a convective gust and coherent boundary-layer structures of strong winds.

Lightning location relative to storm structure in a supercell storm and a multicell storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ray, Peter S.; Macgorman, Donald R.; Rust, W. David; Taylor, William L.; Rasmussen, Lisa Walters

1987-01-01

Relationships between lightning location and storm structure are examined for one radar volume scan in each of two mature, severe storms. One of these storms had characteristics of a supercell storm, and the other was a multicell storm. Data were analyzed from dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning-mapping systems. The distributions of VHF impulse sources were compared with radar reflectivity, vertical air velocity, and their respective gradients. In the supercell storm, lightning tended to occur along streamlines above and down-shear of the updraft and reflectivity cores; VHF impulse sources were most concentrated in reflectivities between 30 and 40 dBZ and were distributed uniformly with respect to updraft speed. In the multicell storm, on the other hand, lightning tended to coincide with the vertical reflectivity and updraft core and with the diverging streamlines near the top of the storm. The results suggest that the location of lightning in these severe storms were most directly associated with the wind field structure relative to updraft and reflectivity cores. Since the magnitude and vertical shear of the environmental wind are fundamental in determining the reflectivity and wind field structure of a storm, it is suggested that these environmental parameters are also fundamental in determining lightning location.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Munroe, Robert; Curtis, Scott

2017-07-01

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson's correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Niño (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Auroras observations of the MAIN in Apatity during 2014/15 winter season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guineva, V.; Despirak, I.; Kozelov, B.

2017-08-01

In this work we review substorms, originated during the 2014/2015 winter season. Observations of the Multiscale Aurora Imaging Network (MAIN) in Apatity have been used. Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters were estimated by the 1-min sampled OMNI data base from CDAWeb (http://cdaweb.gsfc.nasa.gov/cdaweb/ istp_public/). Auroral disturbances were verified by the 10-s sampled data of IMAGE magnetometers and by data of the all-sky camera at Apatity. Subject of the review were the peculiarities in the development of substorms occurred during different geomagnetic conditions. The behavior of the substorms developed in non-storm time and during different phases of geomagnetic storms was discussed.

An analysis of simulated and observed storm characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benestad, R. E.

2010-09-01

A calculus-based cyclone identification (CCI) method has been applied to the most recent re-analysis (ERAINT) from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts and results from regional climate model (RCM) simulations. The storm frequency for events with central pressure below a threshold value of 960-990hPa were examined, and the gradient wind from the simulated storm systems were compared with corresponding estimates from the re-analysis. The analysis also yielded estimates for the spatial extent of the storm systems, which was also included in the regional climate model cyclone evaluation. A comparison is presented between a number of RCMs and the ERAINT re-analysis in terms of their description of the gradient winds, number of cyclones, and spatial extent. Furthermore, a comparison between geostrophic wind estimated though triangules of interpolated or station measurements of SLP is presented. Wind still represents one of the more challenging variables to model realistically.

Multiple storm event impacts on epikarst storage and transport of organic soil amendments in South-Central Kentucky.

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The groundwater in agricultural karst areas is susceptible to contamination from organic soil amendments and pesticides. During major storm events of winter and spring 2011, dye traces were initiated using sulphorhodamine-B, fluorescein and eosine in a known groundwater recharge area where manure wa...

ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

2009-12-01

The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future

A Study of Ionospheric Storm Association with Intense Geomagnetic Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okpala, K. C.

2017-12-01

The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms have been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤100nT) that occurred during solar cycle 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storms were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric condition at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.

Quantification of storm-induced bathymetric change in a back-barrier estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ganju, Neil K.; Suttles, Steven E.; Beudin, Alexis; Nowacki, Daniel J.; Miselis, Jennifer L.; Andrews, Brian D.

2017-01-01

Geomorphology is a fundamental control on ecological and economic function of estuaries. However, relative to open coasts, there has been little quantification of storm-induced bathymetric change in back-barrier estuaries. Vessel-based and airborne bathymetric mapping can cover large areas quickly, but change detection is difficult because measurement errors can be larger than the actual changes over the storm timescale. We quantified storm-induced bathymetric changes at several locations in Chincoteague Bay, Maryland/Virginia, over the August 2014 to July 2015 period using fixed, downward-looking altimeters and numerical modeling. At sand-dominated shoal sites, measurements showed storm-induced changes on the order of 5 cm, with variability related to stress magnitude and wind direction. Numerical modeling indicates that the predominantly northeasterly wind direction in the fall and winter promotes southwest-directed sediment transport, causing erosion of the northern face of sandy shoals; southwesterly winds in the spring and summer lead to the opposite trend. Our results suggest that storm-induced estuarine bathymetric change magnitudes are often smaller than those detectable with methods such as LiDAR. More precise fixed-sensor methods have the ability to elucidate the geomorphic processes responsible for modulating estuarine bathymetry on the event and seasonal timescale, but are limited spatially. Numerical modeling enables interpretation of broad-scale geomorphic processes and can be used to infer the long-term trajectory of estuarine bathymetric change due to episodic events, when informed by fixed-sensor methods.

Coherence of river and ocean conditions along the US West Coast during storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kniskern, T.A.; Warrick, J.A.; Farnsworth, K.L.; Wheatcroft, R.A.; Goni, M.A.

2011-01-01

The majority of water and sediment discharge from the small, mountainous watersheds of the US West Coast occurs during and immediately following winter storms. The physical conditions (waves, currents, and winds) within and acting upon the proximal coastal ocean during these winter storms strongly influence dispersal patterns. We examined this river-ocean temporal coherence for four coastal river-shelf systems of the US West Coast (Umpqua, Eel, Salinas, and Santa Clara) to evaluate whether specific ocean conditions occur during floods that may influence coastal dispersal of sediment. Eleven years of corresponding river discharge, wind, and wave data were obtained for each river-shelf system from USGS and NOAA historical records, and each record was evaluated for seasonal and event-based patterns. Because near-bed shear stresses due to waves influence sediment resuspension and transport, we used spectral wave data to compute and evaluate wave-generated bottom-orbital velocities. The highest values of wave energy and discharge for all four systems were consistently observed between October 15 and March 15, and there were strong latitudinal patterns observed in these data with lower discharge and wave energies in the southernmost systems. During floods we observed patterns of river-ocean coherence that differed from the overall seasonal patterns. For example, downwelling winds generally prevailed during floods in the northern two systems (Umpqua and Eel), whereas winds in the southern systems (Salinas and Santa Clara) were generally downwelling before peak discharge and upwelling after peak discharge. Winds not associated with floods were generally upwelling on all four river-shelf systems. Although there are seasonal variations in river-ocean coherence, waves generally led floods in the three northern systems, while they lagged floods in the Santa Clara. Combined, these observations suggest that there are consistent river-ocean coherence patterns along the US West

Severe winter rings of oak trees (Quercus robur L.) from Central European Russia.

PubMed

Khasanov, B F

2013-11-01

Oak trees were sampled in a flood plain forest in the valley of the Zapadnaya Dvina (Daugava) river (Tver region, Russia). Annual rings of the time period from 1826 to 2010 were studied. Anatomically distinct rings with a stripe of small-sized cells in the innermost part and narrow earlywood vessels located in three to four rows occurred in 1861, 1862, 1929, 1940, 1942, 1956 and 1979. Deviations of earlywood development were associated with the drop of winter temperature below -42 °C. The percentage of severe winter ring (SWR) occurrence depends upon tree age and decreases from 75.6 % in younger specimens (under 41 years old at the time of the severe winter) to 27.1 % in middle-aged ones (from 41 to 80 years) to 3.5 % in trees older than 80 years. Described anatomical features can be used in the reconstruction of severe winter frequency in the past.

Links Between the Madden-Julian Oscillation and Severe Convective Storms in the U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barrett, B.

2015-12-01

Recent research has shown a tendency for severe convective storms to vary intraseasonally, including by phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The MJO is the leading mode of atmospheric intraseasonal variability and is characterized by large regions (1000-5000 km) of anomalous convective activity that generally propagate eastward along the equator. Anomalous upper-troposphere heating associated with this convection generates poleward-propagating Rossby waves that interact with the preexisting extratropical circulation. The projection of this interaction onto the synoptic scale - via the favoring of troughs and ridges at certain positions - is the hypothesized mechanism by which the MJO modulates severe convection. However, one unexplored aspect of this modulation is the extent to which severe convection in winter and early-spring months, especially Jan-Mar, may be influenced by different phases of the MJO. While climatologically rarer than events later in spring, severe thunderstorms in winter and early spring still have potential to be high-impact weather events, especially as they often occur in populated areas of the southeast U.S. that have shown more vulnerability than other regions such as the southern or central plains. Results from other studies (not necessarily focused on the question of severe convective storms) have indicated statistically significant modulation of upper- and mid-tropospheric circulation (from 200 hPa to 700 hPa), surface temperature, and sea level pressure. Thus, it is possible that the MJO's influence also extends to severe storms, as these are ingredients known to affect the likelihood of convective activity in the U.S. Using a methodology similar to other recent MJO studies, the impacts of the MJO on tornado, hail, and wind activity from Jan-Mar will be tested as part of this larger project to understand intraseasonal variability of severe storms.

Storm-driven Mixing and Potential Impact on the Arctic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Jiayan; Comiso, Josefino; Walsh, David; Krishfield, Richard; Honjo, Susumu; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Observations of the ocean, atmosphere, and ice made by Ice-Ocean Environmental Buoys (IOEBs) indicate that mixing events reaching the depth of the halocline have occurred in various regions in the Arctic Ocean. Our analysis suggests that these mixing events were mechanically forced by intense storms moving across the buoy sites. In this study, we analyzed these mixing events in the context of storm developments that occurred in the Beaufort Sea and in the general area just north of Fram Strait, two areas with quite different hydrographic structures. The Beaufort Sea is strongly influenced by inflow of Pacific water through Bering Strait, while the area north of Fram Strait is directly affected by the inflow of warm and salty North Atlantic water. Our analyses of the basin-wide evolution of the surface pressure and geostrophic wind fields indicate that the characteristics of the storms could be very different. The buoy-observed mixing occurred only in the spring and winter seasons when the stratification was relatively weak. This indicates the importance of stratification, although the mixing itself was mechanically driven. We also analyze the distribution of storms, both the long-term climatology as well as the patterns for each year in the last two decades. The frequency of storms is also shown to be correlated- (but not strongly) to Arctic Oscillation indices. This study indicates that the formation of new ice that leads to brine rejection is unlikely the mechanism that results in the type of mixing that could overturn the halocline. On the other hand, synoptic-scale storms can force mixing deep enough to the halocline and thermocline layer. Despite a very stable stratification associated with the Arctic halocline, the warm subsurface thermocline water is not always insulated from the mixed layer.

Geomagnetic Storm Effects in the Low- to Middle-Latitude Upper Thermosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, A. G.; Killeen, T. L.; Deng, W.; Carignan, G. R.; Roble, R. G.

1995-01-01

In this paper, we use data from the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite and a theoretical simulation made by using the National Center for Atmospheric Research thermosphere/ionosphere general circulation model (NCAR-TIGCM) to study storm-induced changes in the structure of the upper thermosphere in the low- to middle-latitude (20 deg-40 deg N) region of the winter hemisphere. Our principal results are as follows: (1) The winds associated with the diurnal tide weaken during geomagnetic storms, causing primarily zonally oriented changes in the evening sector, few changes in the middle of the afternoon, a combination of zonal and meridional changes in the late morning region, and mainly meridional changes early in the morning; (2) Decreases in the magnitudes of the horizontal winds associated with the diurnal tide lead to a net downward tendency in the vertical winds blowing through a constant pressure surface; (3) Because of these changes in the vertical wind, there is an increase in compressional heating (or a decrease in cooling through expansion), and thus temperatures in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere increase; (4) Densities of all neutral species increase on a constant height surface, but the pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is not well ordered on these surfaces; (5) The pattern of changes in the O/N2 ratio is better ordered on constant pressure surfaces. The increases in this ratio on constant pressure surfaces in the low- to middle-latitude, winter hemisphere are caused by a more downward tendency in the vertical winds that blow through the constant pressure surfaces. Nitrogen-poor air is then advected downward through the pressure surface, increasing the O/N2 ratio; (6) The daytime geographical distribution of the modeled increases in the O/N2 ratio on a constant pressure surface in the low- to middle-latitudes of the winter hemisphere correspond very closely with those of increases in the modeled electron densities at the F2 peak.

Understanding and predicting the impact of extreme storms events on European coastlines: the MICORE approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ciavola, P.

2009-04-01

Both the EU and The United Nations are now taking seriously the predicted climate change scenarios of the IPCC. Of particular relevance to Integrated Coastal Zone Management is the predicted increase in the intensity and frequency of powerful storm events characterised by larger peak wind speeds and consequently larger waves. Engineering has usually been favoured in the past as the best option for disaster mitigation at the coast. However, most engineering works are constrained by economics, and a compromise is sought between the potential threat to lives and property and the resources available for design and construction. Furthermore, the design of structures is based on predicted extreme events which themselves are subject to uncertainty, especially in a rapidly changing global climate. The huge damage to the city of New Orleans by Hurricane Katrina illustrates clearly what can go wrong when the engineering design is subjected to forcing beyond its design limits and when civil evacuation and management plans fail. The proposed paper will address the issue of encouraging and facilitating exchange of information on storm impacts produced by nationally funded projects in Member States; establishing robust data management and data quality control and engaging with stakeholders and end users to optimise dissemination strategies. It will heavily rely on the information produced by the MICORE Project (FP7 contract 202798), using and enlarging the database collated by the project regarding the characteristics of extreme storm events occurred in the last 50 years. The MICORE project (www.micore.eu) will provide the knowledge necessary to assess the present day risks and to study the economic and social impact of future severe storm events. Together, these elements will have an important strategic impact on the safety of the people living in coastal areas and upon decision processes aimed at minimising the economic consequences of extreme events. The project will also

Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Kevin Martin

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

2010-12-01

Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-07-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-04-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of

STORMVEX: The Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment Science and Operations Plan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mace, J; Matrosov, S; Shupe, M

2010-09-29

During the Storm Peak Lab Cloud Property Validation Experiment (STORMVEX), a substantial correlative data set of remote sensing observations and direct in situ measurements from fixed and airborne platforms will be created in a winter season, mountainous environment. This will be accomplished by combining mountaintop observations at Storm Peak Laboratory and the airborne National Science Foundation-supported Colorado Airborne Multi-Phase Cloud Study campaign with collocated measurements from the second ARM Mobile Facility (AMF2). We describe in this document the operational plans and motivating science for this experiment, which includes deployment of AMF2 to Steamboat Springs, Colorado. The intensive STORMVEX field phasemore » will begin nominally on 1 November 2010 and extend to approximately early April 2011.« less

On the mid-latitude ionospheric storm association with intense geomagnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okpala, Kingsley Chukwudi; Ogbonna, Chinasa Edith

2018-04-01

The bulk association between ionospheric storms and geomagnetic storms has been studied. Hemispheric features of seasonal variation of ionospheric storms in the mid-latitude were also investigated. 188 intense geomagnetic storms (Dst ≤ 100 nT) that occurred during solar cycles 22 and 23 were considered, of which 143 were observed to be identified with an ionospheric storm. Individual ionospheric storms were identified as maximum deviations of the F2 layer peak electron density from quiet time values. Only ionospheric storms that could clearly be associated with the peak of a geomagnetic storm were considered. Data from two mid-latitude ionosonde stations; one in the northern hemisphere (i.e. Moscow) and the other in the southern hemisphere (Grahamstown) were used to study ionospheric conditions at the time of the individual geomagnetic storms. Results show hemispheric and latitudinal differences in the intensity and nature of ionospheric storms association with different types of geomagnetic storms. These results are significant for our present understanding of the mechanisms which drive the changes in electron density during different types of ionospheric storms.

Evaluation of thunderstorm indices from ECMWF analyses, lightning data and severe storm reports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaltenböck, Rudolf; Diendorfer, Gerhard; Dotzek, Nikolai

This study describes the environmental atmospheric characteristics in the vicinity of different types of severe convective storms in Europe during the warm seasons in 2006 and 2007. 3406 severe weather events from the European Severe Weather Database ESWD were investigated to get information about different types of severe local storms, such as significant or weak tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds, and heavy precipitation. These data were combined with EUCLID (European Cooperation for Lightning Detection) lightning data to distinguish and classify thunderstorm activity on a European scale into seven categories: none, weak and 5 types of severe thunderstorms. Sounding parameters in close proximity to reported events were derived from daily high-resolution T799 ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts) analyses. We found from the sounding-derived parameters in Europe: 1) Instability indices and CAPE have considerable skill to predict the occurrence of thunderstorms and the probability of severe events. 2) Low level moisture can be used as a predictor to distinguish between significant tornadoes or non-severe convection. 3) Most of the events associated with wind gusts during strong synoptic flow situations reveal the downward transport of momentum as a very important factor. 4) While deep-layer shear discriminates well between severe and non-severe events, the storm-relative helicity in the 0-1 km and especially in the 0-3 km layer adjacent to the ground has more skill in distinguishing between environments favouring significant tornadoes and wind gusts versus other severe events. Additionally, composite parameters that combine measurements of buoyancy, vertical shear and low level moisture have been tested to discriminate between severe events.

Drastic shifts in the Levant hydroclimate during the last interglacial indicate changes in the tropical climate and winter storm tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

2017-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e was a warm interglacial with where with significantly varying insolation and hence varied significantly throughout this time suggesting highly variable climate. The ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered a 460m record of the past 220ka, reflecting the variable climate along MIS 5e. This time interval is reflected by alternating halite and detritus sequences, including 20m of halite-free detritus during the peak insolation at 125 ka. The Dead Sea salt budget indicates that the Levant climate was extremely arid when halite formed, reaching 20% of the present runoff. The halite-free detritus layer reflects increased precipitation to levels similar to present day, assuming similar spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. However, the 234U/238U activity ratio in the lake, reflected by authigenic minerals (aragonite, gypsum and halite), shifts from values of 1.5 (reflecting the Jordan River, the present main water source) down to 1.3 at 125-122ka during the MIS5e insolation peak and 1.0 at 118-116ka. The low 234U/238U reflects increased flash floods and eastern water sources (234U/238U 1.05-1.2) from the drier part of the watershed in the desert belt. The intermediate 234U/238U of 1.3 suggests that the Jordan River, fed from Mediterranean-sourced storm tracks, continued to flow along with an increase in southern and eastern water sources. NCAR CCSM3 climate model runs for 125ka indicate increases in both Summer and Winter precipitation. The drastic decrease to 234U/238U 1.0 occurs during the driest period, indicating a near shutdown of Jordan River flow, and water input only through flash floods and southern and eastern sources. The 120ka climate model runs shows a decrease in Winter and increase in Fall precipitation as a result of an increased precipitation in the tropics. The extreme aridity, associated with increased flooding is similar to patterns expected due to future warming. The increase in aridity is the result of expansion

Storm orientation impacts on atmospheric river induced precipitation efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mehran, A.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2016-12-01

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) along the Pacific North coast are often associated with heavy winter precipitation and flooding. We analyze 35 years (1981 2016) of landfalling ARs over a transect along the U.S. West Coast consisting of four river basins from coastal Washington to Southern California (Chehalis, Russian, Santa Ana, and Santa Margarita Rivers) to assess the impact of storm orientation on precipitation rainout efficiency. We define precipitation rainout efficiency as the correlation coefficient between the net integrated vapor transport and precipitation rate. We use 6-hourly climate data from the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for each of the landfalling ARs. We compute storm orientation from CFSR wind vectors (daily averaged over atmospheric levels between 1000 hPa and 300 hPa) associated with each AR event. We also compute integrated vapor transport (IVT) by multiplying precipitable water by the wind vector and compare with daily averaged precipitation averaged over the river basins, where daily precipitation is taken from Parameter-Elevation Relationships on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) to evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainfall efficiency. We calculate the local topographic orientation of each river basin (slope and aspect) from ArcGIS, which we related to storm orientation. To evaluate the impact of storm orientation on rainout efficiency over the Russian River basin (Northern California), we first calculated approaching IVT (for all of AR induced precipitations from 1981 to 2016) and daily averaged precipitation rate. Next, we calculated the correlation coefficient between IVT and precipitation rate (for all AR induced rainouts over the Russian River basin). Finally, by considering the local topographical changes (slope and aspect from ArcGIS) and integrating them into an effective IVT, we compared the correlation coefficients between actual and effective IVT and basin-average precipitation. We find that over the Russian

High-Latitude Topside Ionospheric Vertical Electron-Density-Profile Changes in Response to Large Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Benson, Robert F.; Fainberg, Joseph; Osherovich, Vladimir A.; Truhlik, Vladimir; Wang, Yongli; Bilitza, Dieter; Fung, Shing F.

2015-01-01

Large magnetic-storm induced changes have been detected in high-latitude topside vertical electron-density profiles Ne(h). The investigation was based on the large database of topside Ne(h) profiles and digital topside ionograms from the International Satellites for Ionospheric Studies (ISIS) program available from the NASA Space Physics Data Facility (SPDF) at http://spdf.gsfc.nasa.gov/isis/isis-status.html. This large database enabled Ne(h) profiles to be obtained when an ISIS satellite passed through nearly the same region of space before, during, and after a major magnetic storm. A major goal was to relate the magnetic-storm induced high-latitude Ne(h) profile changes to solar-wind parameters. Thus an additional data constraint was to consider only storms where solar-wind data were available from the NASA/SPDF OMNIWeb database. Ten large magnetic storms (with Dst less than -100 nT) were identified that satisfied both the Ne(h) profile and the solar-wind data constraints. During five of these storms topside ionospheric Ne(h) profiles were available in the high-latitude northern hemisphere and during the other five storms similar ionospheric data were available in the southern hemisphere. Large Ne(h) changes were observed during each one of these storms. Our concentration in this paper is on the northern hemisphere. The data coverage was best for the northern-hemisphere winter. Here Ne(h) profile enhancements were always observed when the magnetic local time (MLT) was between 00 and 03 and Ne(h) profile depletions were always observed between 08 and 10 MLT. The observed Ne(h) deviations were compared with solar-wind parameters, with appropriate time shifts, for four storms.

Monitoring water phase dynamics in winter clouds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campos, Edwin F.; Ware, Randolph; Joe, Paul; Hudak, David

2014-10-01

This work presents observations of water phase dynamics that demonstrate the theoretical Wegener-Bergeron-Findeisen concepts in mixed-phase winter storms. The work analyzes vertical profiles of air vapor pressure, and equilibrium vapor pressure over liquid water and ice. Based only on the magnitude ranking of these vapor pressures, we identified conditions where liquid droplets and ice particles grow or deplete simultaneously, as well as the conditions where droplets evaporate and ice particles grow by vapor diffusion. The method is applied to ground-based remote-sensing observations during two snowstorms, using two distinct microwave profiling radiometers operating in different climatic regions (North American Central High Plains and Great Lakes). The results are compared with independent microwave radiometer retrievals of vertically integrated liquid water, cloud-base estimates from a co-located ceilometer, reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity observations by nearby vertically pointing radars, and radiometer estimates of liquid water layers aloft. This work thus makes a positive contribution toward monitoring and nowcasting the evolution of supercooled droplets in winter clouds.

Monitoring water phase dynamics in winter clouds

DOE PAGES

Campos, Edwin F.; Ware, Randolph; Joe, Paul; ...

2014-10-01

This work presents observations of water phase dynamics that demonstrate the theoretical Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen concepts in mixed-phase winter storms. The work analyzes vertical profiles of air vapor pressure, and equilibrium vapor pressure over liquid water and ice. Based only on the magnitude ranking of these vapor pressures, we identified conditions where liquid droplets and ice particles grow or deplete simultaneously, as well as the conditions where droplets evaporate and ice particles grow by vapor diffusion. The method is applied to ground-based remote-sensing observations during two snowstorms, using two distinct microwave profiling radiometers operating in different climatic regions (North American Central Highmore » Plains and Great Lakes). The results are compared with independent microwave radiometer retrievals of vertically integrated liquid water, cloud-base estimates from a co-located ceilometer, reflectivity factor and Doppler velocity observations by nearby vertically pointing radars, and radiometer estimates of liquid water layers aloft. This work thus makes a positive contribution toward monitoring and now casting the evolution of supercooled droplets in winter clouds.« less

Multidecadal changes in winter circulation-climate relationship in Europe: frequency variations, within-type modifications, and long-term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Küttel, Marcel; Luterbacher, Jürg; Wanner, Heinz

2011-03-01

Using pressure fields classified by the SANDRA algorithm, this study investigates the changes in the relationship between North Atlantic/European sea level pressure (SLP) and gridded European winter (DJF) temperature and precipitation back to 1750. Important changes in the frequency of the SLP clusters are found, though none of them indicating significant long-term trends. However, for the majority of the SLP clusters a tendency toward overall warmer and partly wetter winter conditions is found, most pronounced over the last decades. This suggests important within-type variations, i.e. the temperature and precipitation fields related to a particular SLP pattern change their characteristics over time. Using a decomposition scheme we find for temperature and precipitation that within-type-related variations dominate over those due to changed frequencies of the SLP clusters: Approximately 70% (60%) of European winter temperature (precipitation) variations can be explained by within-type changes, most strongly expressed over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. This indicates that the current European winter warming cannot be explained by changed frequencies of the SLP patterns alone, but to a larger degree by changed characteristics of the patterns themselves. Potential sources of within-type variations are discussed.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus: 5 years online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Podladchikova, Tatiana; Petrukovich, Anatoly; Yermolaev, Yuri

2018-04-01

Forecasting geomagnetic storms is highly important for many space weather applications. In this study, we review performance of the geomagnetic storm forecasting service StormFocus during 2011-2016. The service was implemented in 2011 at SpaceWeather.Ru and predicts the expected strength of geomagnetic storms as measured by Dst index several hours ahead. The forecast is based on L1 solar wind and IMF measurements and is updated every hour. The solar maximum of cycle 24 is weak, so most of the statistics are on rather moderate storms. We verify quality of selection criteria, as well as reliability of real-time input data in comparison with the final values, available in archives. In real-time operation 87% of storms were correctly predicted while the reanalysis running on final OMNI data predicts successfully 97% of storms. Thus the main reasons for prediction errors are discrepancies between real-time and final data (Dst, solar wind and IMF) due to processing errors, specifics of datasets.

Freeze-thaw processes and intense winter rainfall: The one-two punch for high streambank legacy sediment and nutrient loads from Mid-Atlantic watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inamdar, S. P.; Johnson, E. R.; Rowland, R. D.; Walter, R. C.; Merritts, D.

2017-12-01

Historic and contemporary anthropogenic soil erosion combined with early-American milldams resulted in large deposits of legacy sediments in the valley bottoms of Piedmont watersheds of the eastern US. Breaching of milldams subsequently yielded highly incised streams with exposed vertical streambanks that are vulnerable to erosion. Streambank erosion is attributed to fluvial scouring, freeze-thaw processes and mass wasting. While streambanks represent a large reservoir of fine sediments and nutrients, there is considerable uncertainty about the contribution of these sources to watershed nonpoint source pollution. Using high-frequency hydrologic, sediment, and turbidity data we show that freeze-thaw events followed by intense winter rainstorms can export unusually high concentrations of suspended sediment and particulate nutrients from watersheds. Data from a 12 ha forested, Piedmont, stream following an intense rain event (54 mm) on February 2016 yielded suspended sediment and particulate nutrient (organic carbon and nitrogen) concentrations and exports that exceeded those from tropical storms Irene, Lee, and Sandy that had much greater rainfall and discharge amounts, but which occurred later in the year. A similar response was also observed with regards to turbidity data for USGS stream monitoring locations at Brandywine Creek (813 km2) and White Clay Creek (153 km2). We hypothesize that much of the sediment export associated with winter storms is likely due to erosion of streambank sediments and was driven by the coupled occurrence of freeze-thaw conditions and intense rainfall events. We propose that freeze-thaw erosion represents an important and underappreciated mechanism in streams that "recharges" the sediment supply, which then is available for flushing by moderate to large storms. Future climate projections indicate increased intensification of storm events and increased variability of winter temperatures. Freeze-thaw cycles coupled with winter rain events

Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

2013-01-01

Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

Meteorological conditions in a thinner Arctic sea ice regime from winter to summer during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice expedition (N-ICE2015)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Lana; Hudson, Stephen R.; Walden, Von P.; Graham, Robert M.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-07-01

Atmospheric measurements were made over Arctic sea ice north of Svalbard from winter to early summer (January-June) 2015 during the Norwegian Young Sea Ice (N-ICE2015) expedition. These measurements, which are available publicly, represent a comprehensive meteorological data set covering the seasonal transition in the Arctic Basin over the new, thinner sea ice regime. Winter was characterized by a succession of storms that produced short-lived (less than 48 h) temperature increases of 20 to 30 K at the surface. These storms were driven by the hemispheric scale circulation pattern with a large meridional component of the polar jet stream steering North Atlantic storms into the high Arctic. Nonstorm periods during winter were characterized by strong surface temperature inversions due to strong radiative cooling ("radiatively clear state"). The strength and depth of these inversions were similar to those during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean (SHEBA) campaign. In contrast, atmospheric profiles during the "opaquely cloudy state" were different to those from SHEBA due to differences in the synoptic conditions and location within the ice pack. Storm events observed during spring/summer were the result of synoptic systems located in the Barents Sea and the Arctic Basin rather than passing directly over N-ICE2015. These synoptic systems were driven by a large-scale circulation pattern typical of recent years, with an Arctic Dipole pattern developing during June. Surface temperatures became near-constant 0°C on 1 June marking the beginning of summer. Atmospheric profiles during the spring and early summer show persistent lifted temperature and moisture inversions that are indicative of clouds and cloud processes.

Climate Driven Life Histories: The Case of the Mediterranean Storm Petrel

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Massa, Bruno; Gimenez, Olivier

2014-01-01

Seabirds are affected by changes in the marine ecosystem. The influence of climatic factors on marine food webs can be reflected in long-term seabird population changes. We modelled the survival and recruitment of the Mediterranean storm petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis) using a 21-year mark-recapture dataset involving almost 5000 birds. We demonstrated a strong influence of prebreeding climatic conditions on recruitment age and of rainfall and breeding period conditions on juvenile survival. The results suggest that the juvenile survival rate of the Mediterranean subspecies may not be negatively affected by the predicted features of climate change, i.e., warmer summers and lower rainfall. Based on considerations of winter conditions in different parts of the Mediterranean, we were able to draw inferences about the wintering areas of the species for the first time. PMID:24728099

Subtropical Storm Andrea

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The circling clouds of an intense low-pressure system sat off the southeast coast of the United States on May 8, 2007, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA's Terra satellite captured this image. By the following morning, the storm developed enough to be classified as a subtropical storm, a storm that forms outside of the tropics, but has many of the characteristics--hurricane-force winds, driving rains, low pressure, and sometimes an eye--of a tropical storm. Although it arrived several weeks shy of the official start of the hurricane season (June 1), Subtropical Storm Andrea became the first named storm of the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm has the circular shape of a tropical cyclone in this image, but lacks the tight organization seen in more powerful storms. By May 9, the storm's winds reached 75 kilometers per hour (45 miles per hour), and the storm was not predicted to get any stronger, said the National Hurricane Center. Though Subtropical Storm Andrea was expected to remain offshore, its strong winds and high waves pummeled coastal states, prompting a tropical storm watch. The winds fueled wild fires (marked with red boxes) in Georgia and Florida. The wind-driven flames generated thick plumes of smoke that concentrated in a gray-brown mass over Tampa Bay, Florida. Unfortunately for Georgia and Florida, which are experiencing moderate to severe drought, Subtropical Storm Andrea was not predicted to bring significant rain to the region right away, according to reports on the Washington Post Website.

Mid-latitude storm track variability and its influence on atmospheric composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

2013-12-01

Using the storm tracking algorithm, TRACK (Hodges, 1994, 1995, 1999), we have studied the behaviour of storm tracks in the North Atlantic basin, using 850-hPa relative vorticity from the ERA-Interim Re-analysis (Dee et al., 2011). We have correlated surface ozone measurements at rural coastal sites in Europe to the storm track data to explore the role mid-latitude cyclones and their transport of pollutants play in determining surface air quality in Western Europe. To further investigate this relationship, we have used the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition Climate (MACC) Re-analysis dataset (Inness et al., 2013) in TRACK. The MACC Re-analysis is a 10-year dataset which couples a chemistry transport model (Mozart-3; Stein 2009, 2012) to an extended version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). Storm tracks in the MACC Re-analysis compare well to the storm tracks using the ERA-Interim Re-analysis for the same 10-year period, as both are based on ECMWF IFSs. We also compare surface ozone values from MACC to surface ozone measurements previously studied. Using TRACK, we follow ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) through the life cycle of storms from North America to Western Europe. Along the storm tracks, we examine the distribution of CO and O3 within 6 degrees of the center of each storm and vertically at different pressure levels in the troposphere. We hope to better understand the mechanisms with which pollution is vented from the boundary layer to the free troposphere, as well as transport of pollutants to rural areas. Our hope is to give policy makers more detailed information on how climate variability associated with storm tracks between 1979-2013 may affect air quality in Northeast USA and Western Europe.

Investigating and Modeling Ecosystem Response to an Experimental and a Natural Ice Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhraei, H.; Driscoll, C. T.; Rustad, L.; Campbell, J. L.; Groffman, P.; Fahey, T.; Likens, G.; Swaminathan, R.

2017-12-01

Our understanding of ecosystem response to the extreme events is generally limited to rare observations from the natural historical events. However, investigating extreme events under controlled conditions can improve our understanding of these natural phenomena. A novel field experiment was conducted in a northern hardwood forest at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire in the northeastern United States to quantify the influence of ice storms on the ecological processes. During subfreezing conditions in the winters of 2016 and 2017, water from a nearby stream was pumped and sprayed on the canopy of eight experimental plots to accrete ice to a targeted thickness on the canopy. The experiment was conducted at three levels of icing thickness (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 in.) in 2016 comparable to the naturally occurring 1998 ice storm and a second 0.5 in. treatment 2017 which were compared with reference plots. The most notable response of the icing treatments was a marked increase in fine and course litter fall which increased exponentially with increases in the icing thickness. Post-treatment openings in the canopy caused short-term increases in soil temperature in the ice-treatment plots compared to the reference plots. No response from the ice storm treatments were detected for soil moisture, net N mineralization, net nitrification, or denitrification after both natural and experimental ice storm. In contrast to the marked increase in the stream water nitrate after the natural occurring 1998 ice storm, we have not observed any significant change in soil solution N concentrations in the experimental ice storm treatments. Inconsistency in the response between the natural and experimental ice storm is likely due to differences in geophysical characteristics of the study sites including slope and lateral uptake of nutrient by the trees outside the experimental plots. In order to evaluate the long-term impacts of ice storms on northern hardwood forests, we used

Low-E Storm Windows Gain Acceptance as a Home Weatherization Measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gilbride, Theresa L.; Cort, Katherine A.

This article for Home Energy Magazine describes work by the U.S. Department of Energy to develop low-emissivity storm windows as an energy efficiency-retrofit option for existing homes. The article describes the low-emissivity invisible silver metal coatings on the glass, which reflect heat back into the home in winter or back outside in summer and the benefits of low-e storm windows including insulation, air sealing, noise blocking, protection of antique windows, etc. The article also describes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's efforts on behalf of DOE to overcome market barriers to adoption of the technology, including performance validation studies in the PNNLmore » Lab Homes, cost effectiveness analysis, production of reports, brochures, how-to guides on low-e storm window installation for the Building America Solution Center, and a video posted on YouTube. PNNL's efforts were reviewed by the Pacific Northwest Regional Technical Forum (RTF), which serves as the advisory board to the Pacific Northwest Electric Power Planning Council and Bonneville Power Administration. In late July 2015, the RTF approved the low-e storm window measure’s savings and specifications, a critical step in integrating low-e storm windows into energy-efficiency planning and utility weatherization and incentive programs. PNNL estimates that more than 90 million homes in the United States with single-pane or low-performing double-pane windows would benefit from the technology. Low-e storm windows are suitable not only for private residences but also for small commercial buildings, historic properties, and facilities that house residents, such as nursing homes, dormitories, and in-patient facilities. To further assist in the market transformation of low-e storm windows and other high-efficiency window attachments, DOE helped found the window Attachment Energy Rating Council (AERC) in 2015. AERC is an independent, public interest, non-profit organization whose mission is to rate

The Influence of Global Climate Changes on Storm-Tracks of Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Y.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.

2012-12-01

Non-stationary eddies in mid-latitude storm-tracks are an important mechanism of energy, moment and moisture transfer in climate system [1]. Baroclinic eddies bring heavy rains and other hazard weather phenomena in the middle latitudes, play an important role in the global energy and the hydrological cycle. Recently, the increase of a cyclones rate at high latitudes with their frequency decrease in the second half of the 20th century was discovered using reanalysis data [2,3]. However, there is still no common point of view about how storm-track's distribution and intensity will be changed under the climate change influence [4,5]. In our work we investigate a variation of transient eddies general propagation tracks as a result of the global climate change effect. Using global large-scale intermediate complexity model of climate system [6] the numerical experiment was provided for the time period from 850 to 3000 year with a scenario of greenhouse gases influence on climate. From 850 to 2005 this impact was set according to the protocol "Historical simulations" of CMIP5 [7]. For 21th century anthropogenic effects were set according to the most aggressive scenario RCP 8.5 [8]. For the period 22-23 centuries CO2 concentration was on the level of 2100 year, and for 24-30 centuries it returned to pre-industrial value linearly in time of 100 years. Using a filter [9] we defined three variation intervals: low-frequency, medium-frequency and high-frequency. In our work we paid attention to medium-scale waves (i.e. 2-8 days). Two seasons were chosen: winter and summer. For each season we considered average fields of parameters characterizing poleward heat flux at 700 mb and transient eddies variance at 250 mb. Besides of the sensitivity of storm-track dynamic we considered some other features of "warm" climate. The work is partially supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation #(#07.514.11.4044), RFBR grants #10-07-00547, #11-05-01190, and SB

Identifying long term empirical relationships between storm characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tashie, Arik; Mirus, Benjamin B.; Pavelsky, Tamlin

2016-01-01

Shallow aquifers are an important source of water resources and provide base flow to streams; yet actual rates of groundwater recharge are difficult to estimate. While climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme precipitation events, the resulting impact on groundwater recharge remains poorly understood. We quantify empirical relations between precipitation characteristics and episodic groundwater recharge for a wide variety of geographic and land use types across North Carolina. We extract storm duration, magnitude, average rate, and hourly weighted intensity from long-term precipitation records over periods of 12–35 years at 10 locations. Using time series of water table fluctuations from nearby monitoring wells, we estimate relative recharge to precipitation ratios (RPR) to identify statistical trends. Increased RPR correlates with increased storm duration, whereas RPR decreases with increasing magnitude, average rate, and intensity of precipitation. Agricultural and urban areas exhibit the greatest decrease in RPR due to increasing storm magnitude, average rate, and intensity, while naturally vegetated areas exhibit a larger increase in RPR with increased storm duration. Though RPR is generally higher during the winter than the summer, this seasonal effect is magnified in the Appalachian and Piedmont regions. These statistical trends provide valuable insights into the likely consequences of climate and land use change for water resources in subtropical climates. If, as predicted, growing seasons lengthen and the intensity of storms increases with a warming climate, decreased recharge in Appalachia, the Piedmont, and rapidly growing urban areas of the American Southeast could further limit groundwater availability.

Modelling and in-situ measurements of intense currents during a winter storm in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michaud, Héloïse; Leredde, Yann; Estournel, Claude; Berthebaud, Éric; Marsaleix, Patrick

2013-09-01

While oceanic circulation in the Gulf of Lion (GoL) has often been studied in calm weather or with northerly winds (Tramontane or Mistral) through observations and numerical circulation models, few studies have focused on southeasterly storm events. Yet, correct representation of the circulation during storms is crucial if the suspension of sediments is to be correctly modelled throughout the Gulf. The purpose of this paper is to describe the hydrodynamics in the Gulf of Aigues-Mortes (NW of the GoL) during the storm of 18 February 2007 by using a set of data from an ADCP station placed at a depth of 65 m on the sea bed off the coast at Sète, supplemented by the ocean circulation model SYMPHONIE. This storm was characterized by a moderate south-easterly wind (15 m . s-1) and waves of up to 5 m of significant height at its apex. At the ADCP, strong currents of up to 0.8 m . s-1 near the surface and 0.5 m . s-1 near the bottom were recorded, parallel to the coast, flowing towards the south-west. The simulated currents were widely underestimated, even taking the effect of waves into account in the model. It was suspected that the representation of the wind in the atmospheric model was an underestimation. A new simulation was therefore run with an arbitrarily chosen stronger wind and its results were in much better agreement with the measurements. A simplified theoretical analysis successfully isolated the wind-induced processes, responsible for the strong currents measured during the apex and the strong vertical shear that occurred at the beginning of the storm. These processes were: 1/ the barotropic geostrophic current induced by a wind parallel to the coast and 2/ the Ekman spiral. The duration of the storm (about 36 h at the apex) explains the continuous increase of the current as predicted by the theory. The frictionally induced Ekman transport explains the current shear in the surface layer in the rising stage of the storm, and the addition of high waves and

The Dragon Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-02-24

A large, bright and complex convective storm that appeared in Saturn's southern hemisphere in mid-September 2004 was the key in solving a long-standing mystery about the ringed planet. Saturn's atmosphere and its rings are shown here in a false color composite made from Cassini images taken in near infrared light through filters that sense different amounts of methane gas. Portions of the atmosphere with a large abundance of methane above the clouds are red, indicating clouds that are deep in the atmosphere. Grey indicates high clouds, and brown indicates clouds at intermediate altitudes. The rings are bright blue because there is no methane gas between the ring particles and the camera. The complex feature with arms and secondary extensions just above and to the right of center is called the Dragon Storm. It lies in a region of the southern hemisphere referred to as "storm alley" by imaging scientists because of the high level of storm activity observed there by Cassini in the last year. The Dragon Storm was a powerful source of radio emissions during July and September of 2004. The radio waves from the storm resemble the short bursts of static generated by lightning on Earth. Cassini detected the bursts only when the storm was rising over the horizon on the night side of the planet as seen from the spacecraft; the bursts stopped when the storm moved into sunlight. This on/off pattern repeated for many Saturn rotations over a period of several weeks, and it was the clock-like repeatability that indicated the storm and the radio bursts are related. Scientists have concluded that the Dragon Storm is a giant thunderstorm whose precipitation generates electricity as it does on Earth. The storm may be deriving its energy from Saturn's deep atmosphere. One mystery is why the radio bursts start while the Dragon Storm is below the horizon on the night side and end when the storm is on the day side, still in full view of the Cassini spacecraft. A possible explanation is

Riding the storm--landslide danger in the San Francisco Bay Area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Adams, Karen

2007-01-01

Movie Synopsis: --A catastrophic 1982 rainstorm triggered 18,000 landslides in the Bay Area, claiming 25 lives and causing $66 million in property damage. --The combination of steep slopes, weak rocks, and intense winter storms make Bay Area uplands an ideal setting for landslides. --Landslides include both swift, potentially deadly debris flows and slower, but destructive deepseated slides. --Learn what USGS scientists have discovered about landslide dynamics and which slopes are most susceptible to sliding. --Hear the devastating stories of Bay Area residents affected by landslides and learn to recognize the danger signs.

Recent Responses of Western North American Forests and Hydroclimate to Pacific Storm Track Position and Intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

2017-12-01

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the October to March cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may shift in the future due to climate change. Using historical climate, tree-ring, and remote sensing data, we assessed the sensitivity of western North American hydroclimate and ecosystems to the position and intensity of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. From 1980-2014, mean annual cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N to 53°N, with substantial interannual variability in both the position and intensity of the storm tracks. We examined relationships between storm tracks and two hydroclimatic variables: the cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index and April snow water equivalent. We also assessed how historical storm track variability affected ecosystems using forest growth estimates from a large tree-ring network as well as land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from AVHRR and Landsat, respectively. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. These hydroclimatic impacts were largely driven by the latitudinal position of storm tracks during the "shoulder" seasons (i.e., autumn and early spring). Ecosystems of the western U.S. tended to be greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern U.S. were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. Assuming that these historical relationships continue to hold under future climate scenarios, our

An outbreak of carbon monoxide poisoning after a major ice storm in Maine.

PubMed

Daley, W R; Smith, A; Paz-Argandona, E; Malilay, J; McGeehin, M

2000-01-01

Unintentional carbon monoxide (CO) exposure kills over 500 people in the U.S. annually. Outbreaks of CO poisoning have occurred after winter storms. The objective of this study was to describe clinical features and identify important risk factors of a CO poisoning outbreak occurring after a major ice storm. The study design included a case series of CO poisoning patients, a telephone survey of the general community, and a case-controlled study of households using specific CO sources. The setting was the primary service area of four hospital emergency departments located in the heavily storm-impacted interior region of Maine. Participants included all patients with a laboratory-confirmed diagnosis of CO poisoning during the 2 weeks after the storm onset, and a population-based comparison group of 522 households selected by random digit dialing. There were 100 cases identified, involving 42 common-source exposure incidents, most of them during the first week. Though classic CO symptoms of headache, dizziness, and nausea predominated, 9 patients presented with chest pain and 10 were asymptomatic. One patient died and 5 were transferred for hyperbaric oxygen therapy. Gasoline-powered electric generators were a CO source in 30 incidents, kerosene heaters in 8, and propane heaters in 4. In the community, 31.4% of households used a generator after the ice storm. The strongest risk factor for poisoning was locating a generator in a basement or an attached structure such as a garage. Cases of CO poisoning with various presentations can be expected in the early aftermath of a severe ice storm. Generators are a major CO source and generator location an important risk factor for such disasters.

Outcome of Doctors Attending the European Society for Paediatric Endocrinology Winter Schools 2008-2014.

PubMed

Donaldson, Malcolm D C

2017-01-01

Since 1995, the European Society for Paediatric Endocrinology (ESPE) has hosted Winter School (WS), a 5-day interactive meeting of 25 trainees and 7 teachers designed to cover all main endocrine topics. The aim of the present study was to determine subsequent outcome in ex-WS "students." A questionnaire was sent in August 2016 to all ESPE WS participants between 2008 and 2014. Information was requested on job/training status at WS attendance and in 2016, and subsequent involvement with ESPE. Of 174 participants (144 women, 30 men) including 5 attending two WS, 129 (74.5%) responded. At the time of WS/2016 survey 58/3 participants were junior trainees, 38/21 senior trainees, and 33/101 consultants. One hundred and seventeen (90.6%) responders were still involved with endocrinology, 107 (82%) rating WS as having a strong/very strong influence on their careers. Following WS, 80/174 (46%) participants had attended at least one ESPE main meeting, 28 (16%) had been awarded ESPE fellowships, and 34 (19%) had become ESPE members. The great majority of WS participants responding to the questionnaire are still involved with endocrinology and rated WS as influential. This favourable outcome supports the continuing funding of WS and similar educational programmes. © 2017 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Desert Storm and Its Meaning; The View from Moscow

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

Rokke, USAF, Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. European Command; Air Vice Marshal (Ret.) R. A. Mason and Group Captain Andrew Vallance ...Lieutenant Colonel William O’Malley, Jonathan Pollack, and James Quinlivan for comments on specific portions of the report; as well as Richard Kugler...sponsorship of the Secretary of the Air Force. See also Richard Hallion, Storm Over Iraq, Washington, D.C., Smithsonian Institution Press, 1992

An early warning system for marine storm hazard mitigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Almeida, L. P.; Pacheco, A.; Ferreira, O.

2012-04-01

The present contribution presents efforts towards the development of an operational Early Warning System for storm hazard prediction and mitigation. The system consists of a calibrated nested-model train which consists of specially calibrated Wave Watch III, SWAN and XBeach models. The numerical simulations provide daily forecasts of the hydrodynamic conditions, morphological change and overtopping risk at the area of interest. The model predictions are processed by a 'translation' module which is based on site-specific Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) (Ciavola et al., 2011, Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project, Environmental Science & Policy, Vol 14), and warnings are issued when pre-defined threshold values are exceeded. For the present site the selected SIIs were (i) the maximum wave run-up height during the simulations; and (ii) the dune-foot horizontal retreat at the end of the simulations. Both SIIs and pre-defined thresholds were carefully selected on the grounds of existing experience and field data. Four risk levels were considered, each associated with an intervention approach, recommended to the responsible coastal protection authority. Regular updating of the topography/bathymetry is critical for the performance of the storm impact forecasting, especially when there are significant morphological changes. The system can be extended to other critical problems, like implications of global warming and adaptive management strategies, while the approach presently followed, from model calibration to the early warning system for storm hazard mitigation, can be applied to other sites worldwide, with minor adaptations.

High resolution climate projection of storm surge at the Venetian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mel, R.; Sterl, A.; Lionello, P.

2013-04-01

Climate change impact on storm surge regime is of great importance for the safety and maintenance of Venice. In this study a future storm surge scenario is evaluated using new high resolution sea level pressure and wind data recently produced by EC-Earth, an Earth System Model based on the operational seasonal forecast system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The study considers an ensemble of six 5 yr long simulations of the rcp45 scenario at 0.25° resolution and compares the 2094-2098 to the 2004-2008 period. EC-Earth sea level pressure and surface wind fields are used as input for a shallow water hydrodynamic model (HYPSE) which computes sea level and barotropic currents in the Adriatic Sea. Results show that a high resolution climate model is needed for producing realistic values of storm surge statistics and confirm previous studies in that they show little sensitivity of storm surge levels to climate change. However, some climate change signals are detected, such as increased persistence of high pressure conditions, an increased frequency of windless hour, and a decreased number of moderate windstorms.

Genome-wide association mapping of resistance to eyespot disease (Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides) in European winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and fine-mapping of Pch1.

PubMed

Zanke, Christine D; Rodemann, Bernd; Ling, Jie; Muqaddasi, Quddoos H; Plieske, Jörg; Polley, Andreas; Kollers, Sonja; Ebmeyer, Erhard; Korzun, Viktor; Argillier, Odile; Stiewe, Gunther; Zschäckel, Thomas; Ganal, Martin W; Röder, Marion S

2017-03-01

Genotypes with recombination events in the Triticum ventricosum introgression on chromosome 7D allowed to fine-map resistance gene Pch1, the main source of eyespot resistance in European winter wheat cultivars. Eyespot (also called Strawbreaker) is a common and serious fungal disease of winter wheat caused by the necrotrophic fungi Oculimacula yallundae and Oculimacula acuformis (former name Pseudocercosporella herpotrichoides). A genome-wide association study (GWAS) for eyespot was performed with 732 microsatellite markers (SSR) and 7761 mapped SNP markers derived from the 90 K iSELECT wheat array using a panel of 168 European winter wheat varieties as well as three spring wheat varieties and phenotypic evaluation of eyespot in field tests in three environments. Best linear unbiased estimations (BLUEs) were calculated across all trials and ranged from 1.20 (most resistant) to 5.73 (most susceptible) with an average value of 4.24 and a heritability of H 2  = 0.91. A total of 108 SSR and 235 SNP marker-trait associations (MTAs) were identified by considering associations with a -log 10 (P value) ≥3.0. Significant MTAs for eyespot-score BLUEs were found on chromosomes 1D, 2A, 2D, 3D, 5A, 5D, 6A, 7A and 7D for the SSR markers and chromosomes 1B, 2A, 2B, 2D, 3B and 7D for the SNP markers. For 18 varieties (10.5%), a highly resistant phenotype was detected that was linked to the presence of the resistance gene Pch1 on chromosome 7D. The identification of genotypes with recombination events in the introgressed genomic segment from Triticum ventricosum harboring the Pch1 resistance gene on chromosome 7DL allowed the fine-mapping of this gene using additional SNP markers and a potential candidate gene Traes_7DL_973A33763 coding for a CC-NBS-LRR class protein was identified.

Storms in Space

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freeman, John W.

2012-11-01

Introduction; The cast of characters; Vignettes of the storm; 1. Two kinds of weather; 2. The saga of the storm; 3. Weather stations in space; 4. Lights in the night: the signature of the storm; 5. A walking tour of the magnetosphere; 6. The sun: where it all begins; 7. Nowcasting and forecasting storms in space; 8. Technology and the risks from storms in space; 9. A conversation with Joe Allen; 10. Manned exploration and space weather hazards; 11. The present and future of space weather forecasting; Mathematical appendix. A closer look; Glossary; Figure captions.

Quantifying contributions to storm runoff through end-member mixing analysis and hydrologic measurements at the Panola Mountain research watershed (Georgia, USA)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burns, Douglas A.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Hooper, R.P.; Peters, N.E.; Freer, J.E.; Kendall, C.; Beven, K.

2001-01-01

The geographic sources and hydrologic flow paths of stormflow in small catchments are not well understood because of limitations in sampling methods and insufficient resolution of potential end members. To address these limitations, an extensive hydrologic dataset was collected at a 10 ha catchment at Panola Mountain research watershed near Atlanta, GA, to quantify the contribution of three geographic sources of stormflow. Samples of stream water, runoff from an outcrop, and hillslope subsurface stormflow were collected during two rainstorms in the winter of 1996, and an end-member mixing analysis model that included five solutes was developed. Runoff from the outcrop, which occupies about one-third of the catchment area, contributed 50-55% of the peak streamflow during the 2 February rainstorm, and 80-85% of the peak streamflow during the 6-7 March rainstorm; it also contributed about 50% to total streamflow during the dry winter conditions that preceded the 6-7 March storm. Riparian groundwater runoff was the largest component of stream runoff (80-100%) early during rising streamflow and throughout stream recession, and contributed about 50% to total stream runoff during the 2 February storm, which was preceded by wet winter conditions. Hillslope runoff contributed 25-30% to peak stream runoff and 15-18% to total stream runoff during both storms. The temporal response of the three runoff components showed general agreement with hydrologic measurements from the catchment during each storm. Estimates of recharge from the outcrop to the riparian aquifer that were independent of model calculations indicated that storage in the riparian aquifer could account for the volume of rain that fell on the outcrop but did not contribute to stream runoff. The results of this study generally indicate that improvements in the ability of mixing models to describe the hydrologic response accurately in forested catchments may depend on better identification, and detailed spatial and

Storm-Related Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: An Investigation of Target Audience Knowledge and Risk Behaviors.

PubMed

Damon, Scott A; Poehlman, Jon A; Rupert, Douglas J; Williams, Peyton N

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisonings in the United States consistently occur when residents improperly use portable gasoline-powered generators and other tools following severe storms and power outages. However, protective behaviors-such as installing CO alarms and placing generators more than 20 feet away from indoor structures-can prevent these poisonings. This study identified knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs that lead consumers to adopt risk and protective behaviors for storm-related CO poisoning and post-storm generator use. Four focus groups (32 participants in total) were conducted with generator owners in winter and summer storm-prone areas to explore home safety, portable generator use, CO poisoning knowledge, and generator safety messages. Discussions were transcribed, and findings analyzed using an ordered meta-matrix approach. Although most generator owners were aware of CO poisoning, many were unsure what constitutes a safe location for generator operation and incorrectly stated that enclosed areas outside the home-such as attached garages, sheds, and covered porches-were safe. Convenience and access to appliances often dictated generator placement. Participants were receptive to installing CO alarms in their homes but were unsure where to place them. These findings suggest a deficit in understanding how to operate portable generators safely and a need to correct misconceptions around safe placement. In terms of behavioral price, the simple installation and maintenance of inexpensive CO alarms may be the most important strategy for ultimately protecting homes from both storm-related and other CO exposures.

Storm-Related Carbon Monoxide Poisoning: An Investigation of Target Audience Knowledge and Risk Behaviors

PubMed Central

Damon, Scott A.; Poehlman, Jon A.; Rupert, Douglas J.; Williams, Peyton N.

2015-01-01

Carbon monoxide (CO) poisonings in the United States consistently occur when residents improperly use portable gasoline-powered generators and other tools following severe storms and power outages. However, protective behaviors—such as installing CO alarms and placing generators more than 20 feet away from indoor structures—can prevent these poisonings. This study identified knowledge, attitudes, and beliefs that lead consumers to adopt risk and protective behaviors for storm-related CO poisoning and post-storm generator use. Four focus groups (32 participants in total) were conducted with generator owners in winter and summer storm-prone areas to explore home safety, portable generator use, CO poisoning knowledge, and generator safety messages. Discussions were transcribed, and findings analyzed using an ordered meta-matrix approach. Although most generator owners were aware of CO poisoning, many were unsure what constitutes a safe location for generator operation and incorrectly stated that enclosed areas outside the home—such as attached garages, sheds, and covered porches—were safe. Convenience and access to appliances often dictated generator placement. Participants were receptive to installing CO alarms in their homes but were unsure where to place them. These findings suggest a deficit in understanding how to operate portable generators safely and a need to correct misconceptions around safe placement. In terms of behavioral price, the simple installation and maintenance of inexpensive CO alarms may be the most important strategy for ultimately protecting homes from both storm-related and other CO exposures. PMID:26345640

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/2014 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-04-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/2014 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. In such circumstances, coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. We therefore provide these levels for the winter storms, as well as discussing their application to the given data sets and case studies (two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England; and Suffolk, east England). We use tide gauge records and wave buoy data to compare the 2013/2014 storms with return periods from a national dataset, and also generate joint probabilities of sea level and waves, incorporating the recent events. The UK was hit at a national scale by the 2013/2014 storms, although the return periods differ with location. We also note that the 2013/2014 high water and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a very high return period at both case study sites. Our return period analysis shows that the national scale impact of this event is due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations as the tide and storm propagated across the continental shelf. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment should be recorded alongside details of defence performance and upgrade, with other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) included and appropriate offsetting for linear trends (e.g. mean sea level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. Local offsetting of the mean trends in sea level allows long-term comparison of

A risk analysis of winter navigation in Finnish sea areas.

PubMed

Valdez Banda, Osiris A; Goerlandt, Floris; Montewka, Jakub; Kujala, Pentti

2015-06-01

Winter navigation is a complex but common operation in north-European sea areas. In Finnish waters, the smooth flow of maritime traffic and safety of vessel navigation during the winter period are managed through the Finnish-Swedish winter navigation system (FSWNS). This article focuses on accident risks in winter navigation operations, beginning with a brief outline of the FSWNS. The study analyses a hazard identification model of winter navigation and reviews accident data extracted from four winter periods. These are adopted as a basis for visualizing the risks in winter navigation operations. The results reveal that experts consider ship independent navigation in ice conditions the most complex navigational operation, which is confirmed by accident data analysis showing that the operation constitutes the type of navigation with the highest number of accidents reported. The severity of the accidents during winter navigation is mainly categorized as less serious. Collision is the most typical accident in ice navigation and general cargo the type of vessel most frequently involved in these accidents. Consolidated ice, ice ridges and ice thickness between 15 and 40cm represent the most common ice conditions in which accidents occur. Thus, the analysis presented in this article establishes the key elements for identifying the operation types which would benefit most from further safety engineering and safety or risk management development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Storm Surge and Tide Interaction: A Complete Paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsburgh, K.

2014-12-01

Estimates show that in 2005, in the largest 136 coastal cities, there were 40 million people and 3,000 billion of assets exposed to 1 in 100 year coastal flood events. Mean sea level rise will increase this exposure to 150 million people and 35,000 billion of assets by 2070. Any further change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact severely on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. We present results from a storm surge model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation in tide gauge records. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that flood forecasting models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge model

A study of severe storm electricity via storm intercept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, Roy T.; Horsburgh, Steven D.; Rust, W. David; Burgess, Don

1985-01-01

Storm electricity data, radar data, and visual observations were used both to present a case study for a supercell thunderstorm that occurred in the Texas Panhandle on 19 June 1980 and to search for insight into how lightning to ground might be related to storm dynamics in the updraft/downdraft couplet in supercell storms. It was observed that two-thirds of the lightning ground-strike points in the developing and maturing stages of a supercell thunderstorm occurred within the region surrounding the wall cloud (a cloud feature often characteristic of a supercell updraft) and on the southern flank of the precipitation. Electrical activity in the 19 June 1980 storm was atypical in that it was a right-mover. Lightning to ground reached a peak rate of 18/min and intracloud flashes were as frequent as 176/min in the final stages of the storm's life.

Lightning Activity Relative to the Microphysical and Kinematic Structure of Storms during a Thunder-Snow Episode on 29-30 November 2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emersic, C.; Macgorman, D.; Schuur, T.; Lund, N.; Payne, C.; Bruning, E.

2007-12-01

We have examined lightning activity relative to the microphysical and kinematic structure of a winter thunderstorm complex (a thunder-snow episode) observed east of Norman, Oklahoma during the evening of 29-30 November 2006. Polarimetric radar provided information about the type of particles present in various regions of the storms. The Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) recorded VHF signals produced by developing lightning channels. The times of arrival of these lightning signals across the array were then used to reconstruct the location and structure of lightning, and these reconstructions were overlaid with radar data to examine the relationship between lightning properties and storm particle types. Four storms in this winter complex have been examined. It was inferred from lightning structure that, in their mature stage, all cells we examined had a positive tripole electrical structure (an upper positive charge center, a midlevel negative charge center, and a lower positive charge center). The storms began with lightning activity in the lower dipole (lower positive and midlevel negative regions), but this evolved into lightning activity throughout the tripole structure within approximately 15-20 minutes. In the longer lived storms, the mature stage lasted for approximately 1.5-2 hours. During this stage, the lower positive charge region was situated less than 5 km above ground, the midlevel negative charge region was typically above 5 km, and the upper positive charge region was located at an altitude of less than 10 km in all the storm cells analyzed. The charge regions descended over approximately the last 30 minutes of lightning activity, the lower charge regions eventually reaching ground. This resulted in the loss of the lower positive charge center and the subsequent diminishment of the lower negative charge center. Lightning initiation usually coincided with the edges of regions of high reflectivity and was coincident with the presence of graupel and ice

Strong signatures of high-latitude blocks and subtropical ridges in winter PM10 over Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ordonez, C.; Garrido-Perez, J. M.; Garcia-Herrera, R.

2017-12-01

Atmospheric blocking is associated with persistent, slow-moving high pressure systems that interrupt the eastward progress of extratropical storm systems at middle and high latitudes. Subtropical ridges are low latitude structures manifested as bands of positive geopotential height anomalies extending from sub-tropical latitudes towards extra-tropical regions. We have quantified the impact of blocks and ridges on daily PM10 (particulate matter ≤ 10 µm) observations obtained from the European Environment Agency's air quality database (AirBase) for the winter period of 2000-2010. For this purpose, the response of the PM10 concentrations to the location of blocks and ridges with centres in two main longitudinal sectors (Atlantic, ATL, 30˚-0˚ W; European, EUR, 0˚-30˚ E) is examined. EUR blocking is associated with a collapse of the boundary layer as well as reduced wind speeds and precipitation occurrence, yielding large positive anomalies which average 12 µg m-3 over the whole continent. Conversely, the enhanced zonal flow around 50˚-60˚ N and the increased occurrence of precipitation over northern-central Europe on days with ATL ridges favour the ventilation of the boundary layer and the impact of washout processes, reducing PM10 concentrations on average by around 8 µg m-3. The presence of EUR blocks is also concurrent with an increased probability of exceeding the European air quality target (50 µg m-3 for 24-h averaged PM10) and the local 90th percentiles for this pollutant at many sites, while the opposite effect is found for ridges. In addition, the effect of synoptic persistence on the PM10 concentrations is particularly strong for EUR blocks. Finally, we have found that the effect of both synoptic patterns can partly control the interannual variability of winter mean PM10 at many sites of north-western and central Europe, with coefficients of determination (R2) exceeding 0.80 for southern Germany. These results indicate that the response of the

Warmer winters modulate life history and energy storage but do not affect sensitivity to a widespread pesticide in an aquatic insect.

PubMed

Arambourou, Hélène; Stoks, Robby

2015-10-01

Despite the increased attention for the effects of pesticides under global warming no studies tested how winter warming affects subsequent sensitivity to pesticides. Winter warming is expected to cause delayed negative effects when it increases metabolic rates and thereby depletes energy reserves. Using a common-garden experiment, we investigated the combined effect of a 4 °C increase in winter temperature and subsequent exposure to chlorpyrifos in the aquatic larvae of replicated low- and high-latitude European populations of the damselfly Ischnura elegans. The warmer winter (8 °C) resulted in a higher winter survival and higher growth rates compared to the cold winter (4 °C) commonly experienced by European high-latitude populations. Low-latitude populations were better at coping with the warmer winter, indicating thermal adaptation to the local winter temperatures. Subsequent chlorpyrifos exposure at 20 °C induced strong negative effects on survival, growth rate, lipid content and acetylcholinesterase activity while phenoloxidase activity increased. These pesticide effects were not affected by winter warming. Our results suggest that for species where winter warming has positive effects on life history, no delayed effects on the sensitivity to subsequent pesticide exposure should be expected. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projections of extreme storm surge levels along Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Annunziato, Alessandro; Giardino, Alessio; Feyen, Luc

2016-11-01

Storm surges are an important coastal hazard component and it is unknown how they will evolve along Europe's coastline in view of climate change. In the present contribution, the hydrodynamic model Delft3D-Flow was forced by surface wind and atmospheric pressure fields from a 8-member climate model ensemble in order to evaluate dynamics in storm surge levels (SSL) along the European coastline (1) for the baseline period 1970-2000; and (2) during this century under the Representative Concentration Pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Validation simulations, spanning from 2008 to 2014 and driven by ERA-Interim atmospheric forcing, indicated good predictive skill (0.06 m < RMSE < 0.29 m and 10 % < RMSE < 29 % for 110 tidal gauge stations across Europe). Peak-over-threshold extreme value analysis was applied to estimate SSL values for different return periods, and changes of future SSL were obtained from all models to obtain the final ensemble. Values for most scenarios and return periods indicate a projected increase in SSL at several locations along the North European coastline, which is more prominent for RCP8.5 and shows an increasing tendency towards the end of the century for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Projected SSL changes along the European coastal areas south of 50°N show minimal change or even a small decrease, with the exception of RCP8.5 under which a moderate increase is projected towards the end of the century. The present findings indicate that the anticipated increase in extreme total water levels due to relative sea level rise (RSLR), can be further enforced by an increase of the extreme SSL, which can exceed 30 % of the RSLR, especially for the high return periods and pathway RCP8.5. This implies that the combined effect could increase even further anticipated impacts of climate change for certain European areas and highlights the necessity for timely coastal adaptation and protection measures. The dataset is publicly available under this link: http://data.jrc.ec.europa.eu/collection/LISCOAST.

Effects of lightning NOx production during the 21 July European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project storm studied with a three-dimensional cloud-scale chemical transport model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ott, Lesley E.; Pickering, Kenneth E.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L.; Huntrieser, Heidi; Schumann, Ulrich

2007-03-01

The 21 July 1998 thunderstorm observed during the European Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Project (EULINOX) project was simulated using the three-dimensional Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. The simulation successfully reproduced a number of observed storm features including the splitting of the original cell into a southern cell which developed supercell characteristics and a northern cell which became multicellular. Output from the GCE simulation was used to drive an offline cloud-scale chemical transport model which calculates tracer transport and includes a parameterization of lightning NOx production which uses observed flash rates as input. Estimates of lightning NOx production were deduced by assuming various values of production per intracloud and production per cloud-to-ground flash and comparing the results with in-cloud aircraft observations. The assumption that both types of flashes produce 360 moles of NO per flash on average compared most favorably with column mass and probability distribution functions calculated from observations. This assumed production per flash corresponds to a global annual lightning NOx source of 7 Tg N yr-1. Chemical reactions were included in the model to evaluate the impact of lightning NOx on ozone. During the storm, the inclusion of lightning NOx in the model results in a small loss of ozone (on average less than 4 ppbv) at all model levels. Simulations of the chemical environment in the 24 hours following the storm show on average a small increase in the net production of ozone at most levels resulting from lightning NOx, maximizing at approximately 5 ppbv day-1 at 5.5 km. Between 8 and 10.5 km, lightning NOx causes decreased net ozone production.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951-2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-04-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951-2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September-November PD/TGS and an increase in December-February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, Gregory J.; Wolock, David M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease.

Long-term variability in Northern Hemisphere snow cover and associations with warmer winters

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Wolock, D.M.

2010-01-01

A monthly snow accumulation and melt model is used with gridded monthly temperature and precipitation data for the Northern Hemisphere to generate time series of March snow-covered area (SCA) for the period 1905 through 2002. The time series of estimated SCA for March is verified by comparison with previously published time series of SCA for the Northern Hemisphere. The time series of estimated Northern Hemisphere March SCA shows a substantial decrease since about 1970, and this decrease corresponds to an increase in mean winter Northern Hemisphere temperature. The increase in winter temperature has caused a decrease in the fraction of precipitation that occurs as snow and an increase in snowmelt for some parts of the Northern Hemisphere, particularly the mid-latitudes, thus reducing snow packs and March SCA. In addition, the increase in winter temperature and the decreases in SCA appear to be associated with a contraction of the circumpolar vortex and a poleward movement of storm tracks, resulting in decreased precipitation (and snow) in the low- to mid-latitudes and an increase in precipitation (and snow) in high latitudes. If Northern Hemisphere winter temperatures continue to warm as they have since the 1970s, then March SCA will likely continue to decrease. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Dissolved oxygen in the Tualatin River, Oregon, during winter flow conditions, 1991 and 1992

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kelly, V.J.

1996-01-01

Throughout the winter period, November through April, wastewater treatment plants in the Tualatin River Basin discharge from 10,000 to 15,000 pounds per day of biochemical oxygen demand to the river. These loads often increase substantially during storms when streamflow is high. During the early winter season, when streamflow is frequently less than the average winter flow, the treatment plants discharge about 2,000 pounds per day of ammonia. This study focused on the capacity of the Tualatin River to assimilat oxygen-demanding loads under winter streamflow conditions during the 1992 water year, with an emphasis on peak-flow conditions in the river, and winter-base-flow conditions during November 1992. Concentrations of dissolved oxygen throughout the main stem of the river during the winter remained generally high relative to the State standard for Oregon of 6 milligrams per liter. The most important factors controlling oxygen consumption during winter-low-flow conditions were carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand and input of oxygen-depleted waters from tributaries. During peak-flow conditions, reduced travel time and increased dilution associated with the increased streamflow minimized the effect of increased oxygen-demanding loads. During the base-flow period in November 1992, concentrations of dissolved oxygen were consistently below 6 milligrams per liter. A hydrodynamic water-quality model was used to identify the processes depleting dissolved oxygen, including sediment oxygen demand, nitrification, and carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand. Sediment oxygen demand was the most significant factor; nitrification was also important. Hypothetical scenarios were posed to evaluate the effect of different wastewater treatment plant loads during winter-base-flow conditions. Streamflow and temperature were significant factors governing concentrations of dissolved oxygen in the main-stem river.

Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Gonzalez, Walter D.

1998-01-01

One of the oldest mysteries in geomagnetism is the linkage between solar and geomagnetic activity. The 11-year cycles of both the numbers of sunspots and Earth geomagnetic storms were first noted by Sabine. A few years later, speculation on a causal relationship between flares and storms arose when Carrington reported that a large magnetic storm followed the great September 1859 solar flare. However, it was not until this century that a well-accepted statistical survey on large solar flares and geomagnetic storms was performed, and a significant correlation between flares and geomagnetic storms was noted. Although the two phenomena, one on the Sun and the other on the Earth, were statistically correlated, the exact physical linkage was still an unknown at this time. Various hypotheses were proposed, but it was not until interplanetary spacecraft measurements were available that a high-speed plasma stream rich in helium was associated with an intense solar flare. The velocity of the solar wind increased just prior to and during the helium passage, identifying the solar ejecta for the first time. Space plasma measurements and Skylab's coronagraph images of coronal mass elections (CMES) from the Sun firmly established the plasma link between the Sun and the Earth. One phenomenon associated with magnetic storms is brilliant "blood" red auroras, as shown.

A new climate index controlling winter wave activity along the Atlantic coast of Europe: The West Europe Pressure Anomaly

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Dodet, Guillaume; Masselink, Gerd; Scott, Tim

2017-02-01

A pioneering and replicable method based on a 66-year numerical weather and wave hindcast is developed to optimize a climate index based on the sea level pressure (SLP) that best explains winter wave height variability along the coast of western Europe, from Portugal to UK (36-52°N). The resulting so-called Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) is based on the sea level pressure gradient between the stations Valentia (Ireland) and Santa Cruz de Tenerife (Canary Islands). The WEPA positive phase reflects an intensified and southward shifted SLP difference between the Icelandic low and the Azores high, driving severe storms that funnel high-energy waves toward western Europe southward of 52°N. WEPA outscores by 25-150% the other leading atmospheric modes in explaining winter-averaged significant wave height, and even by a largest amount the winter-averaged extreme wave heights. WEPA is also the only index capturing the 2013/2014 extreme winter that caused widespread coastal erosion and flooding in western Europe.

Ambient particulate matter and carbon monoxide at an urban site of India: Influence of anthropogenic emissions and dust storms.

PubMed

Yadav, Ravi; Sahu, L K; Beig, G; Tripathi, Nidhi; Jaaffrey, S N A

2017-06-01

Continuous measurements of PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO were conducted at an urban site of Udaipur in India from April 2011 to March 2012. The annual mean concentrations of PM 2.5, PM 10 and CO were 42 ± 17 μg m -3 , 114 ± 31 μg m -3 and 343 ± 136 ppbv, respectively. Concentrations of both particulate and CO showed high values during winter/pre-monsoon (dry) period and lowest in the monsoon season (wet). Local anthropogenic emission and long-range transport from open biomass burning sources along with favourable synoptic meteorology led to elevated levels of pollutants in the dry season. However, higher values of PM 10 /PM 2.5 ratio during pre-monsoon season were caused by the episodes of dust storm. In the monsoon season, flow of cleaner air, rainfall and negligible emissions from biomass burning resulted in the lowest levels of pollutants. The concentrations of PM 2.5 , PM 10 and CO showed highest values during morning and evening rush hours, while lowest in the afternoon hours. In winter season, reductions of PM 2.5, CO and PM 10 during weekends were highest of 15%, 13% and 9%, respectively. In each season, the highest PM 2.5 /PM 10 ratio coincided with the highest concentrations of pollutants (CO and NO X ) indicating predominant emissions from anthropogenic sources. Exceptionally high concentrations of PM 10 during the episode of dust storm were due to transport from the Arabian Peninsula and Thar Desert. Up to ∼32% enhancements of PM 10 were observed during strong dust storms. Relatively low levels of O 3 and NO x during the storm periods indicate the role of heterogeneous removal. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Increasing large scale windstorm damage in Western, Central and Northern European forests, 1951–2010

PubMed Central

Gregow, H.; Laaksonen, A.; Alper, M. E.

2017-01-01

Using reports of forest losses caused directly by large scale windstorms (or primary damage, PD) from the European forest institute database (comprising 276 PD reports from 1951–2010), total growing stock (TGS) statistics of European forests and the daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, we identify a statistically significant change in storm intensity in Western, Central and Northern Europe (17 countries). Using the validated set of storms, we found that the year 1990 represents a change-point at which the average intensity of the most destructive storms indicated by PD/TGS > 0.08% increased by more than a factor of three. A likelihood ratio test provides strong evidence that the change-point represents a real shift in the statistical behaviour of the time series. All but one of the seven catastrophic storms (PD/TGS > 0.2%) occurred since 1990. Additionally, we detected a related decrease in September–November PD/TGS and an increase in December–February PD/TGS. Our analyses point to the possibility that the impact of climate change on the North Atlantic storms hitting Europe has started during the last two and half decades. PMID:28401947

Analysis of twitter users' sharing of official new york storm response messages.

PubMed

Genes, Nicholas; Chary, Michael; Chason, Kevin

2014-01-01

Twitter is a social network where users read, send, and share snippets of text ("tweets"). Tweets can be disseminated through multiple means; on desktop computers, laptops, and mobile devices, over ethernet, Wi-Fi or cellular networks. This redundancy positions Twitter as a useful tool for disseminating information to the public during emergencies or disasters. Previous research on dissemination of information using Twitter has mostly investigated the characteristics of tweets that are most effective in raising consumer awareness about a new product or event. In particular, they describe characteristics that increase the chance the messages will be shared ("retweeted") by users. In comparison, little has been published on how information from municipal or state government agencies spreads on Twitter during emergency situations. Retweeting these messages is a way to enhance public awareness of potentially important instructions from public officials in a disaster. The aim of this study is to (1) describe the tweets of select New York State and New York City agencies by public officials surrounding two notable recent winter storms that required a large-scale emergency response, and (2) identify the characteristics of the tweets of public officials that were most disseminated (retweeted). For one week surrounding Superstorm Sandy (October 2012) and the winter blizzard Nemo (February 2013), we collected (1) tweets from the official accounts for six New York governmental agencies, and (2) all tweets containing the hashtags #sandy (or #nemo) and #nyc. From these data we calculated how many times a tweet was retweeted, controlling for differences in baseline activity in each account. We observed how many hashtags and links each tweet contained. We also calculated the lexical diversity of each tweet, a measure of the range of vocabulary used. During the Sandy storm, 3242 shared (retweeted) messages from public officials were collected. The lexical diversity of official

Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

2017-10-01

Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

Assessment and comparison of extreme sea levels and waves during the 2013/14 storm season in two UK coastal regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wadey, M. P.; Brown, J. M.; Haigh, I. D.; Dolphin, T.; Wisse, P.

2015-10-01

The extreme sea levels and waves experienced around the UK's coast during the 2013/14 winter caused extensive coastal flooding and damage. Coastal managers seek to place such extremes in relation to the anticipated standards of flood protection, and the long-term recovery of the natural system. In this context, return periods are often used as a form of guidance. This paper provides these levels for the winter storms, and discusses their application to the given data sets for two UK case study sites: Sefton, northwest England, and Suffolk, east England. Tide gauge records and wave buoy data were used to compare the 2013/14 storms with return periods from a national data set, and also joint probabilities of sea level and wave heights were generated, incorporating the recent events. The 2013/14 high waters and waves were extreme due to the number of events, as well as the extremity of the 5 December 2013 "Xaver" storm, which had a high return period at both case study sites. The national-scale impact of this event was due to its coincidence with spring high tide at multiple locations. Given that this event is such an outlier in the joint probability analyses of these observed data sets, and that the season saw several events in close succession, coastal defences appear to have provided a good level of protection. This type of assessment could in the future be recorded alongside defence performance and upgrade. Ideally other variables (e.g. river levels at estuarine locations) would also be included, and with appropriate offsetting for local trends (e.g. mean sea-level rise) so that the storm-driven component of coastal flood events can be determined. This could allow long-term comparison of storm severity, and an assessment of how sea-level rise influences return levels over time, which is important for consideration of coastal resilience in strategic management plans.

High resolution modelling of wind fields for optimization of empirical storm flood predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brecht, B.; Frank, H.

2014-05-01

High resolution wind fields are necessary to predict the occurrence of storm flood events and their magnitude. Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) created a catalogue of detailed wind fields of 39 historical storms at the German North Sea coast from the years 1962 to 2011. The catalogue is used by the Niedersächsisches Landesamt für Wasser-, Küsten- und Naturschutz (NLWKN) coastal research center to improve their flood alert service. The computation of wind fields and other meteorological parameters is based on the model chain of the DWD going from the global model GME via the limited-area model COSMO with 7 km mesh size down to a COSMO model with 2.2 km. To obtain an improved analysis COSMO runs are nudged against observations for the historical storms. The global model GME is initialised from the ERA reanalysis data of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As expected, we got better congruency with observations of the model for the nudging runs than the normal forecast runs for most storms. We also found during the verification process that different land use data sets could influence the results considerably.

Storm surge and tide interaction: a complete paradigm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Jane; Proctor, Robert

2014-05-01

Globally, 200 million people live on coastal floodplains and about 1 trillion worth of assets lie within 1 metre of mean sea level. Any change in the statistics of flood frequency or severity would impact on economic and social systems. It is therefore crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges, and to have confidence in datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. Much previous research has focussed on the process of tide-surge interaction, and it is now widely accepted that the physical basis of tide-surge interaction is that a phase shift of the tidal signal represents the effect of the surge on the tide. The second aspect of interaction is that shallow water momentum considerations imply that differing tidal states should modulate surge generation: wind stress should have greater surge-generating potential on lower tides. This has been shown previously by analytical models but not as yet confirmed by fully non-linear models of the continental shelf. We present results from an operational model of the European shelf that demonstrate that tidal range does have an effect on the surges generated. The cycle-integrated effects of wind stress (i.e. the skew surge) are generally greater when tidal range is low. Our results contradict the absence of any such correlation observed in the complete record of UK tide gauge data. This suggests that whilst the modulating effect of the tide on the skew surge (the time-independent difference between peak prediction and observations) is significant, the difference between individual storms is dominant. This implies that forecasting systems must predict salient detail of the most intense storms. A further implication is that operational models need to simulate tides with acceptable accuracy at all coastal locations. We extend our model analysis to show that the same modulation of storm surges (by tidal conditions) applies to tropical cyclones. We conduct simulations using a mature operational storm surge

Toward an integrated storm surge application: ESA Storm Surge project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Boram; Donlon, Craig; Arino, Olivier

2010-05-01

Storm surges and their associated coastal inundation are major coastal marine hazards, both in tropical and extra-tropical areas. As sea level rises due to climate change, the impact of storm surges and associated extreme flooding may increase in low-lying countries and harbour cities. Of the 33 world cities predicted to have at least 8 million people by 2015, at least 21 of them are coastal including 8 of the 10 largest. They are highly vulnerable to coastal hazards including storm surges. Coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems depend on the crosscutting cooperation of different scientific disciplines and user communities. An integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting offers an optimal strategy for building improved operational forecasts and warnings capability for coastal inundation. The Earth Observation (EO) information from satellites has demonstrated high potential to enhanced coastal hazard monitoring, analysis, and forecasting; the GOCE geoid data can help calculating accurate positions of tide gauge stations within the GLOSS network. ASAR images has demonstrated usefulness in analysing hydrological situation in coastal zones with timely manner, when hazardous events occur. Wind speed and direction, which is the key parameters for storm surge forecasting and hindcasting, can be derived by using scatterometer data. The current issue is, although great deal of useful EO information and application tools exist, that sufficient user information on EO data availability is missing and that easy access supported by user applications and documentation is highly required. Clear documentation on the user requirements in support of improved storm surge forecasting and risk assessment is also needed at the present. The paper primarily addresses the requirements for data, models/technologies, and operational skills, based on the results from the recent Scientific and Technical Symposium on Storm Surges (www

Pesticides in storm runoff from agricultural and urban areas in the Tuolumne River basin in the vicinity of Modesto, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kratzer, Charles R.

1998-01-01

The occurrence, concentrations, and loads of dissolved pesticides in storm runoff were compared for two contrasting land uses in the Tuolumne River Basin, California, during two different winter storms: agricultural areas (February 1994) and the Modesto urban area (February 1995). Both storms followed the main application period of pesticides on dormant almond orchards. Eight samples of runoff from agricultural areas were collected from a Tuolumne River site, and 10 samples of runoff from urban areas were collected from five storm drains. All samples were analyzed for 46 pesticides. Six pesticides were detected in runoff from agricultural areas, and 15 pesticides were detected in runoff from urban areas. Chlorpyrifos, diazinon, dacthal (DCPA), metolachlor, and simazine were detected in almost every sample. Median concentrations were higher in the runoff from urban areas for all pesticides except napropamide and simazine. The greater occurrence and concentrations in storm drains is partly attributed to dilution of agricultural runoff by nonstorm base-flow in the Tuolumne River and by storm runoff from nonagricultural and nonurban land. In most cases, the occurrence and relative concentrations of pesticides found in storm runoff from agricultural and urban areas were related to reported pesticide application. Pesticide concentrations in runoff from agricultural areas were more variable during the storm hydrograph than were concentrations in runoff from urban areas. All peak pesticide concentrations in runoff from agricultural areas occurred during the rising limb of the storm hydrograph, whereas peak concentrations in the storm drains occurred at varying times during the storm hydrograph. Transport of pesticides from agricultural areas during the February 1994 storm exceeded transport from urban areas during the February 1995 storm for chlorpyrifos, diazinon, metolachlor, napropamide, and simazine. Transport of DCPA was about the same from agricultural and urban

Relation of precipitation quality to storm type, and deposition of dissolved chemical constituents from precipitation in Massachusetts, 1983-85

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gay, F.B.; Melching, C.S.

1995-01-01

Precipitation samples were collected for 83 storms at a rural inland site in Princeton, Mass., and 73 storms at a rural coastal site in Truro, Mass., to examine the quality of precipitation from storms and relate quality to three storm types (oceanic cyclone, continental cyclone, and cold front). At the inland site, Princeton, ranked-means of precipitation depth, storm duration, specific conductance, and concentrations and loads of hydrogen, sulfate, aluminum, bromide, and copper ions were affected by storm type. At the coastal site, Truro, ranked means of precipitation depth, storm duration, and concentrations and loads of calcium, chloride, magnesium, potassium, and sodium ions were affected by storm type. Precipitation chemistry at the coastal site was 85 percent oceanic in orgin, whereas precipitation 72 kilometers inland was 60 percent hydrogen, nitrate, and sulfate ions, reflecting fossil-fuel combustion. Concentrations and loads for specific conductance and 9 chemical constituents on an annual and seasonal basis were determined from National Atmospheric Deposition Program data for spring 1983 through winter 1985 at Quabbin (rural, inland), Waltham (suburban, inland) and Truro (rural, coastal), Massachusetts. Concentrations of magnesium, potassium, sodium, and chloride concentrations were highest at the coast and much lower inland, with very little difference between Waltham and Quabbin. Loads of ammonium, nitrate, sulfate, and hydrogen are highest at Quabbin and are about equal at Waltham and Truro. About twice as much nitrate and hydrogen and about 35 percent more sulfate is deposited at Quabbin than at Waltham or Truro; this pattern indicates that the interior of Massachusetts receives more acidic precipitation than do the eastern or the coastal areas of Massachusetts.

Healthcare4VideoStorm: Making Smart Decisions Based on Storm Metrics.

PubMed

Zhang, Weishan; Duan, Pengcheng; Chen, Xiufeng; Lu, Qinghua

2016-04-23

Storm-based stream processing is widely used for real-time large-scale distributed processing. Knowing the run-time status and ensuring performance is critical to providing expected dependability for some applications, e.g., continuous video processing for security surveillance. The existing scheduling strategies' granularity is too coarse to have good performance, and mainly considers network resources without computing resources while scheduling. In this paper, we propose Healthcare4Storm, a framework that finds Storm insights based on Storm metrics to gain knowledge from the health status of an application, finally ending up with smart scheduling decisions. It takes into account both network and computing resources and conducts scheduling at a fine-grained level using tuples instead of topologies. The comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework has good performance and can improve the dependability of the Storm-based applications.

Comparisons of Modeled and Observed Reflectivities and Fall Speeds for Snowfall of Varied Riming Degree During Winter Storms on Long Island, New York

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Molthan, Andrew L.; Colle, Brian A.; Yuter, Sandra E.; Stark, David

2016-01-01

Derived radar reflectivity and fall speed for four Weather Research and Forecasting model bulk microphysical parameterizations (BMPs) run at 1.33 km grid spacing are compared with ground-based, vertically-pointing Ku-band radar, scanning S- band radar, and in situ measurements at Stony Brook, NY. Simulations were partitioned into periods of observed riming degree as determined manually using a stereo microscope and camera during nine winter storms. Simulations were examined to determine whether the selected BMPs captured the effects of varying riming intensities, provided a reasonable match to the vertical structure of radar reflectivity or fall speed, and whether they produced reasonable surface fall speed distributions. Schemes assuming non spherical mass-diameter relationships yielded reflectivity distributions closer to observed values. All four schemes examined in this study provided a better match to the observed, vertical structure of reflectivity during moderate riming than light riming periods. The comparison of observed and simulated snow fall speeds had mixed results. One BMP produced episodes of excessive cloud water at times, resulting in fall speeds that were too large. However, most schemes had frequent periods of little or no cloud water during moderate riming periods and thus underpredicted the snow fall speeds at lower levels. Short, 1-4 hour periods with relatively steady snow conditions were used to compare BMP and observed size and fall speed distributions. These limited data suggest the examined BMPs underpredict fall speeds of cold-type snow habits and underrepresent aggregates larger than 4 mm diameter.

Effect of Geomagnetic Storms on Ocean-Atmospheric Interactions over the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reddy, S.; Karim, R.

There is accumulated evidence from recent past literature to show the possible relation between solar and geomagnetic activity, and meteorological parameters (Pittock, 1978; Reddy et.al. 1979; Bhalme et.al. 1979; Reddy and Karim, 2003). Not many studies have been reported on the relationship between geomagnetic activity and terrestrial weather including ocean-atmospheric interactions that have significant impacts over the large-scale atmospheric circulations. Between the ocean surface and the atmosphere, there is an exchange of heat and moisture that depend in part, on temperature differences between water and air. In winter, when air-water temperature contrasts are greatest, there is a substantial transfer of sensible and latent heat from the ocean surface into the atmosphere. This energy helps to maintain the global airflow. Previous studies (Reddy and Miller, 1997; Reddy et.al. 1998, 1999) have established the relationship between ocean-atmospheric interactions and tropical cyclones/hurricanes over the Gulf of Mexico. In the present study, we investigate the relationship between Geomagnetic Storms and ocean-atmospheric interactions including heat, momentum and moisture fluxes over the Gulf of Mexico during the winter (December to February) for the period, 2001-2003.The data used in this study include, (i) Geomagnetic storms, and (ii) Buoy data (sea surface temperature, air temperature, sea level pressure and wind speed) obtained from National Data Buoy Center (NDBC). The fluxes were computed using standard bulk formulae. The statistical techniques used for data analysis include superposed epoch analysis and student test .The result of the study has pointed out a significant increase in the fluxes 1-3 days after the storm occurrence. The effect of these fluxes on Gulf coast weather is noticed. The study is important for further understanding the climate variability of large-scale circulations including ElNino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results and the

Solute Response To Arid-Climate Managed-River Flow During Storm Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McLean, B.; Shock, E.

2006-12-01

Storm pulses are widely used in unmanaged, temperate and subtropical river systems to resolve in-stream surface and subsurface flow components. Resulting catchment-scale hydrochemical mixing models yield insight into mechanisms of solute transport. Managed systems are far more complicated due to the human need for high quality water resources, which drives processes that are superimposed on most, if not all, of the unmanaged components. As an example, an increasingly large portion of the water supply for the Phoenix metropolitan area is derived from multiple surface water sources that are impounded, diverted and otherwise managed upstream from the urban core that consumes the water and produces anthropogenic impacts. During large storm events this managed system is perturbed towards natural behavior as it receives inputs from natural hydrologic pathways in addition to impervious surfaces and storm water drainage channels. Our goals in studying managed river systems during this critical transition state are to determine how the well- characterized behavior of natural systems break down as the system responds then returns to its managed state. Using storm events as perturbations we can contrast an arid managed system with the unmanaged system it approaches during the storm event. In the process, we can extract geochemical consequences specifically related to unknown urban components in the form of chemical fingerprints. The effects of river management on solute behavior were assessed by taking advantage of several anomalously heavy winter storm events in late 2004 and early 2005 using a rigorous sampling routine. Several hundred samples collected between January and October 2005 were analyzed for major ion, isotopic, and trace metal concentrations with 78 individual measurements for each sample. The data are used to resolve managed watershed processes, mechanisms of solute transport and river mixing from anthropogenic inputs. Our results show that concentrations of

Anticipating and Communicating Plausible Environmental and Health Concerns Associated with Future Disasters: The ShakeOut and ARkStorm Scenarios as Examples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plumlee, G. S.; Morman, S. A.; Alpers, C. N.; Hoefen, T. M.; Meeker, G. P.

2010-12-01

Disasters commonly pose immediate threats to human safety, but can also produce hazardous materials (HM) that pose short- and long-term environmental-health threats. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has helped assess potential environmental health characteristics of HM produced by various natural and anthropogenic disasters, such as the 2001 World Trade Center collapse, 2005 hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2007-2009 southern California wildfires, various volcanic eruptions, and others. Building upon experience gained from these responses, we are now developing methods to anticipate plausible environmental and health implications of the 2008 Great Southern California ShakeOut scenario (which modeled the impacts of a 7.8 magnitude earthquake on the southern San Andreas fault, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/scenario08/), and the recent ARkStorm scenario (modeling the impacts of a major, weeks-long winter storm hitting nearly all of California, http://urbanearth.gps.caltech.edu/winter-storm/). Environmental-health impacts of various past earthquakes and extreme storms are first used to identify plausible impacts that could be associated with the disaster scenarios. Substantial insights can then be gleaned using a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) approach to link ShakeOut and ARkStorm effects maps with data extracted from diverse database sources containing geologic, hazards, and environmental information. This type of analysis helps constrain where potential geogenic (natural) and anthropogenic sources of HM (and their likely types of contaminants or pathogens) fall within areas of predicted ShakeOut-related shaking, firestorms, and landslides, and predicted ARkStorm-related precipitation, flooding, and winds. Because of uncertainties in the event models and many uncertainties in the databases used (e.g., incorrect location information, lack of detailed information on specific facilities, etc.) this approach should only be considered as the first of multiple steps

American woodcock winter distribution and fidelity to wintering areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Diefenbach, D.R.; Derleth, E.L.; Vander Haegen, W. Matthew; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

1990-01-01

We examined winter distribution and fidelity to wintering areas for the American Woodcock (Scolopax minor), which exhibits reversed, sexual size dimorphism. Band-recovery data revealed no difference in winter distributions of different age/sex classes for woodcock from the same breeding ares. Similarly, band recoveries from woodcock banded on wintering grounds revealed no difference in fidelity to wintering sites. Males may winter north of a latitude that is optimal for survival based on physiological considerations, but they gain a reproductive advantage if they are among the first to arrive on the breeding grounds. This may explain our results, which indicate males and females have similar distribution patterns during winter.

Southern California Beaches during the El Niño Winter of 2009/2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doria, A.; Guza, R. T.; Yates, M. L.; O'Reilly, W.

2010-12-01

Storms during the El Niño winter 2009/2010 produced prolonged periods of energetic waves, and severely eroded southern California beaches. Sand elevations were measured at several beaches over alongshore spans of a few km, for up to 5 years, on cross-shore transects extending from the back beach to about 8 meters depth, and spaced every 100 meters alongshore. Wave conditions were estimated using the CDIP network of directional wave buoys. At the Torrey Pines Outer Buoy, the median significant wave height for January 2010 was the largest for any month in the past 10 year record. Anomalous changes in beach sand level, characterized as the excess volume displaced relative to average-winter profiles, were extreme in both the amount of shoreline erosion and the amount of offshore accretion. Anomalous shoreline erosion volumes were almost twice as large as the second-most severe winter, with vertical deviations as large as -2.3m. Anomalous offshore accretion, in depths between 4-8m and as large as 1.5m vertical, was also exceptional. Beach widths, based on the cross-shore location of the Mean Sea Level (MSL) contour, were narrower than measured in previous winters. The accuracy of shoreline (MSL) location, predicted using an existing shoreline change equilibrium model driven with the estimated waves, will be assessed. Beach recovery, based on ongoing surveys, will also be discussed.

Dedication to Professor Hannspeter Winter (1941 2006): Dedication to Professor Hannspeter Winter (1941 2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCullough, Bob

2007-03-01

Professor H Winter. It was with great sadness that we learnt of the death of colleague and friend Professor Hannspeter Winter in Vienna on the 8 November 2006. In memory of him and the contribution he made both to our conference and to the field of the physics of highly charged ions we dedicate these proceedings. Hannspeter was one of our distinguished invited speakers at HCI2006 and gave a talk on the status of the ITER programme. His invited paper on the subject is included in these proceedings. Hannspeter will be particularly remembered for his pioneering work on ion-surface interactions that, together with his colleagues at the Vienna University of Technology (TUW), has stimulated a worldwide experimental and theoretical interest in this field. He was appointed Director of the Institut fuer Allgemeine Physik at TUW in 1987 and using both his scientific and management skills has made it one of the leading university physics laboratories in the world. His research publications, of which there are 270, have inspired many others to work in the field of atomic and plasma physics. He was also a great European playing a major role in the EURATOM fusion programme, the European Physical Society and the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics and was an evaluator and advisory board member for many national and international institutions. Hannspeter was also an interesting and friendly social companion with interests in current affairs, music and fine wines and will be greatly missed both on a scientific and social level. Our condolences go to his wife Renate, son Dorian and his relatives. R W McCullough Co-chair HCI2006

Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

2003-01-01

The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

Merging Saturnian Storms

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-04-08

Three months before its scheduled arrival at Saturn, the Cassini spacecraft has observed two storms in the act of merging. With diameters close to 1,000 kilometers (621 miles), both storms, which appear as spots in the southern hemisphere, were seen moving west, relative to the rotation of Saturn's interior, for about a month before they merged on March 19 through 20, 2004. This set of eight images was taken between Feb. 22 and March 22, 2004. The top four frames span 26 days. They are portions of images from the narrow angle camera taken through a filter accepting light in the near-infrared region of the spectrum centered at 619 nanometers, and they show two storms approaching each other. Both storms are located at 36 degrees south latitude and sit in an anti-cyclonic shear zone, which means that the flow to the north is westward relative to the flow to the south. Consequently, the northern storm moves westward at a slightly greater rate than the southern one, 11 meters versus 6 meters per second (25 and 13 mph), respectively. The storms drift with these currents and engage in a counterclockwise dance before merging with each other. The bottom four frames are from images taken on March 19, 20, 21 and 22, in a region of the spectrum visible to the human eye; they illustrate the storms' evolution. Just after the merger, on March 20, the new feature is elongated in the north-south direction, with bright clouds on either end. Two days later, on March 22, the storm has settled into a more circular shape, and the bright clouds have spread around the circumference to form a halo. Whether the bright clouds are particles of a different composition or simply at a different altitude is uncertain. The new storm is a few tenths of a degree farther south than either of its progenitors. There, its westward velocity is weaker, and it is almost stationary relative to the planet's rotation. Although these particular storms move slowly west, storms at Saturn's equator move east at

Skill and predictability in multimodel ensemble forecasts for Northern Hemisphere regions with dominant winter precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ehsan, Muhammad Azhar; Tippett, Michael K.; Almazroui, Mansour; Ismail, Muhammad; Yousef, Ahmed; Kucharski, Fred; Omar, Mohamed; Hussein, Mahmoud; Alkhalaf, Abdulrahman A.

2017-05-01

Northern Hemisphere winter precipitation reforecasts from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast System-4 and six of the models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble are evaluated, focusing on two regions (Region-A: 20°N-45°N, 10°E-65°E and Region-B: 20°N-55°N, 205°E-255°E) where winter precipitation is a dominant fraction of the annual total and where precipitation from mid-latitude storms is important. Predictability and skill (deterministic and probabilistic) are assessed for 1983-2013 by the multimodel composite (MME) of seven prediction models. The MME climatological mean and variability over the two regions is comparable to observation with some regional differences. The statistically significant decreasing trend observed in Region-B precipitation is captured well by the MME and most of the individual models. El Niño Southern Oscillation is a source of forecast skill, and the correlation coefficient between the Niño3.4 index and precipitation over region A and B is 0.46 and 0.35, statistically significant at the 95 % level. The MME reforecasts weakly reproduce the observed teleconnection. Signal, noise and signal to noise ratio analysis show that the signal variance over two regions is very small as compared to noise variance which tends to reduce the prediction skill. The MME ranked probability skill score is higher than that of individual models, showing the advantage of a multimodel ensemble. Observed Region-A rainfall anomalies are strongly associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, but none of the models reproduce this relation, which may explain the low skill over Region-A. The superior quality of multimodel ensemble compared with individual models is mainly due to larger ensemble size.

Ionospheric and Thermospheric Response to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm: a Global Multi-Instrumental Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Astafyeva, E.; Zakharenkova, I.; Foerster, M.; Doornbos, E.; Encarnacao, J.; Siemes, C.

2015-12-01

We study the ionospheric response to the geomagnetic storm of 17-18 March 2015 (the St. Patrick's Day 2015 storm) that was up to now the strongest in the 24th solar cycle (minimum SYM-H value of -233 nT). For this purpose, we use data of ground-based GPS-receivers and ionosondes, along space-borne instruments onboard the following satellites: Jason-2, GRACE, Terra-SAR-X, the three Swarm satellites (A, B, and C), and GUVI/TIMED. The storm consisted of two successive moderate storms. In the response to the first short storm, a short-term positive effect in the ionospheric vertical electron content (VTEC) occurred at low- and mid-latitudes on the dayside. The second event lasted longer and caused significant and complex storm-time changes around the globe. At high-latitudes, negative storm signatures were recorded in all longitudinal regions. The negative storm phase was found to be strongest in the Asian sector, in particular in the northern hemisphere (NH), but developed globally on March 18 at the beginning of the recovery phase. At mid-latitudes, inverse hemispheric asymmetries occurred in different longitudinal regions: in the European-African sector, positive storm signatures were observed in the NH, whereas in the American sector, a large positive storm occurred in the southern hemisphere (SH), and the NH experienced a negative storm. These observations performed around the spring equinox signify the existence of other impact factors than seasonal dependence for hemispheric asymmetries to occur. At low-latitudes, data from multiple satellites revealed the strongest storm-time effects in the morning (~100-150% enhancement) and post-sunset (~80-100% enhancement) sectors in the topside ionosphere. These dramatic VTEC enhancements were observed at different UT, but around the same area of Eastern Pacific region. To further understand the storm development, we are planning to use thermospheric data from Swarm-C satellite, as well as the data from the electric field

Post-storm evolution a high-energy remote sandy beach backed by a high and wide coastal dune

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelle, Bruno; Bujan, Stéphane; Ferreira, Sophie

2016-04-01

During the winter 2013/2014, the high-energy meso-macrotidal remote beach of Truc Vert (SW France) was exposed to the most energetic wave conditions over at least the last 65 years with, for instance, the 2-month averaged significant wave height at the coast exceeding 3.6 m. Unprecedented beach and dune erosion was observed with the notable presence of a 700-m long localized megacusp embayment with the erosion scarp height exceeding 6 m in its centre where the dune retreat reached 30 m. Both the beach and the coastal dune eroded by about 90 m3/m within 3 months of severe storm activity, that is, a total beach-dune system sediment loss reaching 180m3/m. Beach and dune evolution after the winter 2013/2014 was inspected from March 2014 to November 2015 using bimonthly topographic surveys covering 1500+ m alongshore. 1.5 years after the winter 2014/2015, the beach-dune system did not fully recover to its pre-winter 2014/2015 level. The dune accreted by only a few m3/m while the beach accreted by an impressive amount of approximately 150m3/m, to reach a total volume that was only exceeded in 2012 within our full 10-year time series. Despite little volumetric changes, the dune showed significant morphological change through slumping and onshore wave- and wind-driven sediment transport. Seasonal natural revegetation was observed with large dune grass growth into the summer berm and within the erosion scarp with slumped clots of dune grass re-establishing their growth during the winter 2014/2015. In late 2015, the onset of morphological foredune development was observed. It is anticipated that, if Truc Vert is not exposed to a cluster of severe storms during the winter 2015/2016, the coastal dune will increase in volume within 2016 at a much higher rate than during 2015. Last but not least, starting in late 2015, the coastal dune of Truc Vert is now intensively monitored through regular 4-km long UAV photogrammetric surveys. Given that, nowadays, some scientists advocate

Storming ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Fourteen tropical storms, nine hurricanes, and four intense hurricanes with winds above 111 mph. That's the forecast for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Basin for the upcoming hurricane season which extends from June 1 through November 30, 1999, according to a Colorado State Hurricane Forecast team led by William Gray, professor of atmospheric science. The forecast supports an earlier report by the team.Hurricane activity, said Gray will be similar to 1998—which yielded 14 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes, and 3 intense storms. These numbers are significantly higher than the long-term statistical averages of 9.3, 5.8, and 2.2, annually.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Sub-Tropical Dust Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pokharel, Ashok Kumar

Meso-alpha/beta scale observational and meso-beta/gamma scale numerical model analyses were performed to study the atmospheric dynamics responsible for generating Harmattan, Saudi Arabian, and Bodele Depression dust storms. For each dust storm case study, MERRA reanalysis datasets, WRF simulated very high resolution datasets, MODIS/Aqua and Terra images, EUMETSAT images, NAAPS aerosol modelling plots, CALIPSO images, surface observations, and rawinsonde soundings were analyzed. The analysis of each dust storm carried out separately and an in-depth comparison of the events shows some similarities among the three case studies: (1) the presence of a well-organized baroclinic synoptic scale system, (2) small scale dust emission events which occurred prior to the formation of the primary large-scale dust storms, (3) cross mountain flows which produced a strong leeside inversion layer prior to the large scale dust storm, (4) the presence of thermal wind imbalance in the exit region of the mid-tropospheric jet streak in the lee of the mountains shortly after the time of the inversion formation, (5) major dust storm formation was accompanied by large magnitude ageostrophic isallobaric low-level winds as part of the meso-beta scale adjustment process, (6) substantial low-level turbulence kinetic energy (TKE), (7) formation in the lee of nearby mountains, and (8) the emission of the dust occurred initially in narrow meso-beta scale zones parallel to the mountains, and later reached the meso-alpha scale when suspended dust was transported away from the mountains. In addition to this there were additional meso-beta scale and meso-gamma scale adjustment processes resulting in Kelvin waves in the Harmattan and the Bodele Depression cases and the thermally-forced MPS circulation in all of these three cases. The Kelvin wave preceded a cold pool accompanying the air behind the large scale cold front instrumental in the major dust storm. The Kelvin wave organized the major dust

Mass movement and storms in the drainage basin of Redwood Creek, Humboldt County, California: a progress report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harden, Deborah Reid; Janda, Richard J.; Nolan, K. Michael

1978-01-01

Numerous active landslides are clearly significant contributors to high sediment loads in the Redwood Creek basin. Field and aerial-photograph inspections indicate that large mass-movement features, such as earthflows and massive streamside debris slides, occur primarily in terrain underlain by unmetamorphosed or slightly metamorphosed sedimentary rocks. These features cannot account for stream sediment derived from schist. Observed lithologic heterogeneity of stream sediment therefore suggests that large-scale mass movement is only one part of a complex suite of processes supplying sediment to streams in this basin. Other significant sediment contributors include various forms of fluvial erosion and small-scale discrete mass failures, particularly on oversteepened hillslopes adjacent to perennial streams. Photo-interpretive studies of landslide and timber-harvest history adjacent to Redwood Creek, together with analysis of regional precipitation and runoff records for six flood-producing storms between 1953 and 1975, indicate that loci and times of significant streamside landsliding are influenced by both local storm intensity and streamside logging. Analysis of rainfall records and historic accounts indicates that the individual storms comprising a late-19th-century series of storms in northwestern California were similar in magnitude and spacing to those of the past 25 years. The recent storms apparently initiated more streamside landslides than comparable earlier storms, which occurred prior to extensive road construction and timber harvest. Field observations and repeated surveys of stake arrays at 10 sites in the basin indicate that earthflows are especially active during prolonged periods of moderate rainfall; but that during brief intense storms, fluvial processes are the dominant erosion mechanism. Stake movement occurs mostly during wet winter months. Spring and summer movement was detected at some moist streamside sites. Surveys of stake arrays in two

In the Eye of the Storm: A Participatory Course on Coastal Storms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Curtis, Scott

2013-01-01

Storm disasters are amplified in the coastal environment due to population pressures and the power of the sea. The upper-division/graduate university course "Coastal Storms" was designed to equip future practitioners with the skills necessary to understand, respond to, and mitigate for these natural disasters. To accomplish this, "Coastal Storms"…

Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knight, Jeff R.; Maidens, Anna; Watson, Peter A. G.; Andrews, Martin; Belcher, Stephen; Brunet, Gilbert; Fereday, David; Folland, Chris K.; Scaife, Adam A.; Slingo, Julia

2017-07-01

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013-14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean-atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013-14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013-14.

Improved forecasts of winter weather extremes over midlatitudes with extra Arctic observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Kazutoshi; Inoue, Jun; Yamazaki, Akira; Kim, Joo-Hong; Maturilli, Marion; Dethloff, Klaus; Hudson, Stephen R.; Granskog, Mats A.

2017-02-01

Recent cold winter extremes over Eurasia and North America have been considered to be a consequence of a warming Arctic. More accurate weather forecasts are required to reduce human and socioeconomic damages associated with severe winters. However, the sparse observing network over the Arctic brings errors in initializing a weather prediction model, which might impact accuracy of prediction results at midlatitudes. Here we show that additional Arctic radiosonde observations from the Norwegian young sea ICE expedition (N-ICE2015) drifting ice camps and existing land stations during winter improved forecast skill and reduced uncertainties of weather extremes at midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. For two winter storms over East Asia and North America in February 2015, ensemble forecast experiments were performed with initial conditions taken from an ensemble atmospheric reanalysis in which the observation data were assimilated. The observations reduced errors in initial conditions in the upper troposphere over the Arctic region, yielding more precise prediction of the locations and strengths of upper troughs and surface synoptic disturbances. Errors and uncertainties of predicted upper troughs at midlatitudes would be brought with upper level high potential vorticity (PV) intruding southward from the observed Arctic region. This is because the PV contained a "signal" of the additional Arctic observations as it moved along an isentropic surface. This suggests that a coordinated sustainable Arctic observing network would be effective not only for regional weather services but also for reducing weather risks in locations distant from the Arctic.

Impact of prolonged storm activity on the Ecological Status of intertidal benthic habitats within oyster (Crassostrea gigas) trestle cultivation sites.

PubMed

O'Carroll, Jack P J; Quinn, Christina; Forde, James; Patterson, Adrian; O'Beirn, Francis X; Kennedy, Robert

2016-09-15

The Ecological Status (ES; sensu the Water Framework Directive) of intertidal benthic communities within six oyster trestle cultivation sites was found to be negatively impacted along the access routes to trestles in a 2013 study. All cultivation sites occur within Natura 2000 sites. The current study revisited four of the 2013 cultivation sites in February 2014 one month after the storm activity of winter 2013/14 to test if the compaction effect along access routes persisted after the storms. Three levels of the fixed factor treatment were sampled; immediately below the trestles, along the access route and 300m away from any anthropogenic activity. The compaction effect at the Access treatment persisted in spite of the major storm activity. The current study showed the IQI to be effective for assessing the impacts of aquaculture and highlights the IQI as a tool for monitoring Conservation Status of intertidal communities under the Habitats Directive. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterization of Mediterranean hail-bearing storms using an operational polarimetric X-band radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vulpiani, G.; Baldini, L.; Roberto, N.

2015-07-01

This work documents the fruitul use of X-band radar observations for the monitoring of severe storms in an operational framework. More specifically, a couple of severe hail-bearing Mediterranean storms occurred in 2013 in southern Italy, flooding two important cities of Sicily, are described in terms of their polarimetric radar signatures and retrieved rainfall fields. It is used the X-band dual-polarization radar operating inside the Catania airport (Sicily, Italy), managed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. A suitable processing is applied to X-band radar measurements. The crucial procedural step relies on the differential phase processing based on an iterative approach that uses a very short-length (1 km) moving window allowing to properly catch the observed high radial gradients of the differential phase. The parameterization of the attenuation correction algorithm, which use the reconstructed differential phase shift, is derived from electromagnetic simulations based on 3 years of DSD observations collected in Rome (Italy). A Fuzzy Logic hydrometeor classification algorithm was also adopted to support the analysis of the storm characteristics. The precipitation fields amount were reconstructed using a combined polarimetric rainfall algorithm based on reflectivity and specific differential phase. The first considered storm was observed on the 21 February, when a winter convective system, originated in the Tyrrhenian sea, hit only marginally the central-eastern coastline of Sicily causing the flash-flood of Catania. Due to the optimal radar location (the system is located at just few kilometers from the city center), it was possible to well retrieve the storm characteristics, including the amount of rainfall field at ground. Extemporaneous signal extinction, caused by close-range hail core causing significant differential phase shift in very short range path, is documented. The second storm, occurred on 21 August 2013, is a summer mesoscale

An extreme dust storm over the Arabian Peninsula in Spring 2015: the role of convective mixing and vortex stretching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hauser, Seraphine; Pante, Gregor; Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter

2017-04-01

The Arabian Peninsula is one of the World's largest dust sources. Severe dust storms occur throughout the year dominated by synoptic-scale driven frontal systems in winter and spring and convective systems during summer and autumn. Dust storm frequency peaks in spring, when extra-tropical upper-level troughs associated with near-surface cold fronts regularly penetrate into the peninsula. In this study we investigate the dynamics of an extreme springtime dust event, which covered the entire Arabian Peninsula and the adjacent Indian Ocean in early April 2015. In addition to the more common trough/frontal characteristics, EUMETSAT's false-colour dust product shows a striking vortex-like structure during the initial state of the storm. Several SYNOP stations on the Arabian Peninsula report severe dust storms, rapid temperature drop, strong increase in wind speed up to 40 kn and zero visibility for several hours on 01 and 02 April. Remarkably also, 61 mm of rainfall are observed on 01 April at the station Arar in northern Saudi Arabia (annual average 52 mm), clearly indicating a convective contribution to this event. Some evidence for significant precipitation is also found in satellite products. Operational analyses of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) show a distinct short-wave upper-level trough swiftly propagating across the region during this period, accompanied by high relative vorticity values of up to 10 times the planetary vorticity. This vorticity is associated with the trough's curvature, but also with the large cyclonic shear at the northern side of the subtropical jet. The passage of the upper-level disturbance is well timed to overpass the region of the Arabian Peninsula heat low around midday, where vorticity is thermally generated. Most likely the deep boundary layer facilitated the triggering of convection by the upper-level forcing. Ultimately, downward mixing of the high vorticity by convection plus vortex stretching cause

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

PubMed

Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

Two Pairs of Storms

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-06-04

Two pairs of dark spots, or storms, in Saturn atmosphere squeeze past each other as they dance around the planet. In this group of four storms, the top left and lower right storms are fringed with white clouds as seen by NASA Cassini spacecraft.

Characteristics of storm runoff and sediment dispersal in the San Pedro Channel, southern California.

PubMed

Ahn, J H; Grant, S B

2007-01-01

In-site measurements of particle size spectra were obtained from three offshore cruises to evaluate the physical consequences of increased sediment transport and deposition offshore which was caused by episodic storm runoff water from the Santa Ana River watershed, a highly urbanised coastal watershed in southern California. Of the total annual runoff discharge to the coastal ocean, 89.2% occurred in the 2003/2004 winter season, and 0.22 Mt of sediment mass was transported during the storm events. The runoff plume at surface taken offshore by cross-shore currents progressed rapid aggregation and sedimentation, while the initially high concentration of suspended sediment discharged from the river outlet was dominated by small particles. Vertical profiles of particle size spectra revealed two separated plumes near the river outlet and turbidity plume along the bottom consisted of an abundance of very fine and dense particles. It would appear to support the theory that even if the storm runoff does not carry a high concentration of sediment being capable of generating negative buoyancy, sediment deposition on the shelf might mobilise in dense, fluid mud transported offshore by gravity. In a coastal pollution context, sediment particle size spectra information may offer potentially useful means of characterising particle-associated pollutants for purposes of source tracking and environmental interpretation.

Adolescent storm and stress, reconsidered.

PubMed

Arnett, J J

1999-05-01

G. S. Hall's (1904) view that adolescence is a period of heightened "storm and stress" is reconsidered in light of contemporary research. The author provides a brief history of the storm-and-stress view and examines 3 key aspects of this view: conflict with parents, mood disruptions, and risk behavior. In all 3 areas, evidence supports a modified storm-and-stress view that takes into account individual differences and cultural variations. Not all adolescents experience storm and stress, but storm and stress is more likely during adolescence than at other ages. Adolescent storm and stress tends to be lower in traditional cultures than in the West but may increase as globalization increases individualism. Similar issues apply to minority cultures in American society. Finally, although the general public is sometimes portrayed by scholars as having a stereotypical view of adolescent storm and stress, both scholars and the general public appear to support a modified storm-and-stress view.

Defecation rate in captive European bison, Bison bonasus.

PubMed

Eycott, Amy; Daleszczyk, Katarzyna; Drese, Jacqueline; Cantero, Adrià Solé; Pèbre, Jennifer; Gladys, Samuel

2013-01-01

Data on the digestive characteristics of European bison, Bison bonasus (L.), are needed for studies of their role as the largest extant herbivore in Europe and a potential keystone species of the temperate forest ecosystem. Very little published data are available, particularly on the defecation rate which affects population estimates from dropping counts and also the individual seed deposition rate. We gathered data from a captive bison group kept at the Show Reserve of the Białowieża National Park. Droppings accumulated in the enclosure over a 72-h period were counted in winter 2010. In addition, the group was observed over approximately 6-h periods three times in winter and 16 times in summer. The count of accumulated droppings over a 72-h period gave eight defecations per day. The summer direct observations recorded 7.5 defecations per day and winter observation 5.4 defecations per day. These estimates are within the range for other bovids of similar size. The difference between summer and winter observation-based estimates may be accounted for by a higher frequency of defecation in early morning and late afternoon, periods not covered in winter observations. Given the published density of seedlings emerging from droppings of the ∼470 free-living bison in the nearby forest, eight defecations a day mean that seed deposition by European bison may contribute significantly to realize seed dispersal and plant establishment.

European temperature responses to blocking and ridge regional patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Pedro M.; Trigo, Ricardo M.; Barriopedro, David; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Santos, João A.

2018-01-01

Blocking occurrence and its impacts on European temperature have been studied in the last decade. However, most previous studies on blocking impacts have focused on winter only, disregarding its fingerprint in summer and differences with other synoptic patterns that also trigger temperature extremes. In this work, we provide a clear distinction between high-latitude blocking and sub-tropical ridges occurring in three sectors of the Euro-Atlantic region, describing their climatology and consequent impacts on European temperature during both winter and summer. Winter blocks (ridges) are generally associated to colder (warmer) than average conditions over large regions of Europe, in some areas with anomalies larger than 5 °C, particularly for the patterns occurring in the Atlantic and Central European sectors. During summer, there is a more regional response characterized by above average temperature for both blocking and ridge patterns, especially those occurring in continental areas, although negative temperature anomalies persist in southernmost areas during blocking. An objective analysis of the different forcing mechanisms associated to each considered weather regime has been performed, quantifying the importance of the following processes in causing the temperature anomalies: horizontal advection, vertical advection and diabatic heating. While during winter advection processes tend to be more relevant to explain temperature responses, in summer radiative heating under enhanced insolation plays a crucial role for both blocking and ridges. Finally, the changes in the distributions of seasonal temperature and in the frequencies of extreme temperature indices were also examined for specific areas of Europe. Winter blocking and ridge patterns are key drivers in the occurrence of regional cold and warm extreme temperatures, respectively. In summer, they are associated with substantial changes in the frequency of extremely warm days, but with different signatures in

Numerical simulation of a winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-09-01

This study analyzes the cause of rare occurrence of winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options, hail or graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. On evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that hail option shows similar precipitation intensity with TRMM observation than the graupel option and is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model simulated output with hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached upto the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of WD. Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Application of regional climate models to the Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas.

PubMed

Dimri, A P; Yasunari, T; Wiltshire, A; Kumar, P; Mathison, C; Ridley, J; Jacob, D

2013-12-01

The Himalayan region is characterized by pronounced topographic heterogeneity and land use variability from west to east, with a large variation in regional climate patterns. Over the western part of the region, almost one-third of the annual precipitation is received in winter during cyclonic storms embedded in westerlies, known locally as the western disturbance. In the present paper, the regional winter climate over the western Himalayas is analyzed from simulations produced by two regional climate models (RCMs) forced with large-scale fields from ERA-Interim. The analysis was conducted by the composition of contrasting (wet and dry) winter precipitation years. The findings showed that RCMs could simulate the regional climate of the western Himalayas and represent the atmospheric circulation during extreme precipitation years in accordance with observations. The results suggest the important role of topography in moisture fluxes, transport and vertical flows. Dynamical downscaling with RCMs represented regional climates at the mountain or even event scale. However, uncertainties of precipitation scale and liquid-solid precipitation ratios within RCMs are still large for the purposes of hydrological and glaciological studies. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal index related to the shoreline dynamics during a storm: the case of Jesolo beach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Archetti, Renata; Paci, Agnese; Carniel, Sandro; Bonaldo, Davide

2016-05-01

The paper presents an application of shoreline monitoring aimed at understanding the response of a beach to single storms and at identifying its typical behaviour, in order to be able to predict shoreline changes and to properly plan the defence of the shore zone. On the study area, in Jesolo beach (northern Adriatic Sea, Italy), a video monitoring station and an acoustic wave and current profiler were installed in spring 2013, recording, respectively, images and hydrodynamic data. The site lacks previous detailed hydrodynamic and morphodynamic data. Variations in the shoreline were quantified in combination with available near-shore wave conditions, making it possible to analyse the relationship between the shoreline displacement and the wave features. Results denote characteristic patterns of beach response to storm events, and highlight the importance of improving beach protection in this zone, notwithstanding the many interventions experimented in the last decades. A total of 31 independent storm events were selected during the period October 2013-October 2014, and for each of them synthetic indexes based on storm duration, energy and maximum wave height were developed and estimated. It was found that the net shoreline displacements during a storm are well correlated with the total wave energy associated to the considered storm by an empirical power law equation. A sub-selection of storms in the presence of an artificial dune protecting the beach (in the winter season) was examined in detail, allowing to conclude that the adoption of this coastal defence strategy in the study area can reduce shoreline retreat during a storm. This type of intervention can sometimes contribute to prolonging overall stability not only in the replenished zone but also in downdrift areas. The implemented methodology, which confirms to be economically attractive if compared to more traditional monitoring systems, proves to be a valuable system to monitor beach erosive

Probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storms associated with the magnetosphere disturbance storm time events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, T. L.; Arikan, F.; Stanislawska, I.

2014-11-01

The ionospheric W index allows to distinguish state of the ionosphere and plasmasphere from quiet conditions (W = 0 or ±1) to intense storm (W = ±4) ranging the plasma density enhancements (positive phase) or plasma density depletions (negative phase) regarding the quiet ionosphere. The global W index maps are produced for a period 1999-2014 from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, designed by Jet Propulson Laboratory, converted from geographic frame (-87.5:2.5:87.5° in latitude, -180:5:180° in longitude) to geomagnetic frame (-85:5:85° in magnetic latitude, -180:5:180° in magnetic longitude). The probability of occurrence of planetary ionosphere storm during the magnetic disturbance storm time, Dst, event is evaluated with the superposed epoch analysis for 77 intense storms (Dst ≤ -100 nT) and 230 moderate storms (-100 < Dst ≤ -50 nT) with start time, t0, defined at Dst storm main phase onset. It is found that the intensity of negative storm, iW-, exceeds the intensity of positive storm, iW+, by 1.5-2 times. An empirical formula of iW+ and iW- in terms of peak Dst is deduced exhibiting an opposite trends of relation of intensity of ionosphere-plasmasphere storm with regard to intensity of Dst storm.

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.

1998-01-01

This paper examines the three dimensional characteristics of lightning flashes and severe storms observed in Central Florida during 1997-1998. The lightning time history of severe and tornadic storms were captured during the on-going ground validation campaign supporting the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) experiment on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ground validation campaign is a collaborative experiment that began in 1997 and involves scientists at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, MIT/Lincoln Laboratories, and the NWS Forecast Office at Melbourne, FL. Lightning signatures that may provide potential early warning of severe storms are being evaluated by the forecasters at the NWS/MLB office. Severe storms with extreme flash rates sometimes exceeding 300 per minute and accompanying rapid increases in flash rate prior to the onset of the severe weather (hall, damaging winds, tornadoes) have been reported by Hodanish et al. and Williams et al. (1998-this conference). We examine the co-evolving changes in storm structure (mass, echo top, shear, latent heat release) and kinematics associated with these extreme and rapid flash rate changes over time. The flash frequency and density are compared with the three dimensional radar reflectivity structure of the storm to help interpret the possible mechanisms producing the extreme and rapidly increasing flash rates. For two tornadic storms examined thus far, we find the burst of lightning is associated with the development of upper level rotation in the storm. In one case, the lightning burst follows the formation of a bounded weak echo region (BWER). The flash rates diminish with time as the rotation develops to the ground in conjunction with the decent of the reflectivity core. Our initial findings suggest the dramatic increase of flash rates is associated with a sudden and dramatic increase in storm updraft intensity which we hypothesize is stretching vertical vorticity as well as enhancing the

Research Opportunities at Storm Peak Laboratory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I. B.

2006-12-01

The Desert Research Institute (DRI) operates a high elevation facility, Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL), located on the west summit of Mt. Werner in the Park Range near Steamboat Springs, Colorado at an elevation of 3210 m MSL (Borys and Wetzel, 1997). SPL provides an ideal location for long-term research on the interactions of atmospheric aerosol and gas- phase chemistry with cloud and natural radiation environments. The ridge-top location produces almost daily transition from free tropospheric to boundary layer air which occurs near midday in both summer and winter seasons. Long-term observations at SPL document the role of orographically induced mixing and convection on vertical pollutant transport and dispersion. During winter, SPL is above cloud base 25% of the time, providing a unique capability for studying aerosol-cloud interactions (Borys and Wetzel, 1997). A comprehensive set of continuous aerosol measurements was initiated at SPL in 2002. SPL includes an office-type laboratory room for computer and instrumentation setup with outside air ports and cable access to the roof deck, a cold room for precipitation and cloud rime ice sample handling and ice crystal microphotography, a 150 m2 roof deck area for outside sampling equipment, a full kitchen and two bunk rooms with sleeping space for nine persons. The laboratory is currently well equipped for aerosol and cloud measurements. Particles are sampled from an insulated, 15 cm diameter manifold within approximately 1 m of its horizontal entry point through an outside wall. The 4 m high vertical section outside the building is capped with an inverted can to exclude large particles.

Medicolegal aspects of tornadic storms in Kansas, U.S.A.

PubMed

Eckert, W G

1991-12-01

Kansas is known for its fierce whether, including tornados in the spring and fall and blizzards in the winter. A recent series of tornados cut a path of destruction a mile wide for greater than 40 miles (64 km), killed 20 people, and caused several hundred casualities on the evening of April 26, 1991, in Tornado Alley, which runs from the northern border of Oklahoma through southern Kansas past Wichita toward Emporium, Kansas. The wind velocity was greater than 200 mph. Twenty people were killed, 17 of these in Andover, Kansas, a small town east of Wichita. Injuries caused by the tornados and the excellent emergency response and care provided by medical, law-enforcement, and volunteer personnel in the wake of the storms are described here.

A survey of major east coast snowstorms, 1960-1983. Part 2: Case studies of eighteen storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kocin, P. J.; Uccellini, L. W.

1985-01-01

Snowfall, surface and upper air charts, and available satellite images are presented for eighteen major East Coast snowstorms that occurred between 1960 and 1983. The charts and descriptions of key fields are provided so that students, weather forecasters, and researchers alike can visualize how a large sample of major winter cyclones form and intensify. Although there are noted similarities in certain aspects of the surface and upper tropospheric development of the storms, significant case-to-case variability precludes the ability to effectively composite these weather systems.

Dissolved Organic Matter Compositional Change and Biolability During Two Storm Runoff Events in a Small Agricultural Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eckard, Robert S.; Pellerin, Brian A.; Bergamaschi, Brian A.; Bachand, Philip A. M.; Bachand, Sandra M.; Spencer, Robert G. M.; Hernes, Peter J.

2017-10-01

Agricultural watersheds are globally pervasive, supporting fundamentally different organic matter source, composition, and concentration profiles in comparison to natural systems. Similar to natural systems, agricultural storm runoff exports large amounts of organic carbon from agricultural land into waterways. But intense management of upper soil layers, waterway channelization, wetland and riparian habitat removal, and postharvest vegetation removal promise to uniquely drive organic matter release to waterways. During a winter first flush and a subsequent storm event, this study investigated the influence of a small agricultural watershed on dissolved organic matter (DOM) source, composition, and biolability. Storm water discharge released strongly terrestrial yet biolabile (23 to 32%) dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Following a 21 day bioassay, a parallel factor analysis identified an 80% reduction in a protein-like (phenylpropyl) component (C2) that was previously correlated to lignin phenol concentration, and a 10% reduction in a humic-like, terrestrially sourced component (C4). Storm-driven releases tripled DOC concentration (from 2.8 to 8.7 mg L-1) during the first flush event in comparison to base flow and were terrestrially sourced, with an eightfold increase in vascular plant derived lignin phenols (23.0 to 185 μg L-1). As inferred from system hydrology, lignin composition, and nitrate as a groundwater tracer, an initial pulse of dilute water from the upstream watershed caused a counterclockwise DOC hysteresis loop. DOC concentrations peaked after 3.5 days, with the delay between peak discharge and peak DOC attributed to storm water hydrology and a period of initial water repellency of agricultural soils, which delayed DOM leaching.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

7 CFR 760.702 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms, ice storms, snow, blizzard, hurricane, typhoons, tropical storms, and cold wet weather. A disaster..., moisture, humidity, severe storms, thunderstorms, ground saturation or standing water, hail, winter storms...

Collapse of the 2017 Winter Beaufort High: A Response to Thinning Sea Ice?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, G. W. K.; Schweiger, A.; Zhang, J.; Steele, M.

2018-03-01

The winter Arctic atmosphere is under the influence of two very different circulation systems: extratropical cyclones travel along the primary North Atlantic storm track from Iceland toward the eastern Arctic, while the western Arctic is characterized by a quasi-stationary region of high pressure known as the Beaufort High. The winter (January through March) of 2017 featured an anomalous reversal of the normally anticyclonic surface winds and sea ice motion in the western Arctic. This reversal can be traced to a collapse of the Beaufort High as the result of the intrusion of low-pressure systems from the North Atlantic, along the East Siberian Coast, into the Arctic Basin. Thin sea ice as the result of an extremely warm autumn (October through December) of 2016 contributed to the formation of an anomalous thermal low over the Barents Sea that, along with a northward shift of the tropospheric polar vortex, permitted this intrusion. The collapse of the Beaufort High during the winter of 2017 was associated with simultaneous 2-sigma sea level pressure, surface wind, and sea ice circulation anomalies in the western Arctic. As the Arctic sea ice continues to thin, such reversals may become more common and impact ocean circulation, sea ice, and biology.

Observations of Sprites and Elves Associated With Winter Thunderstorms in the Eastern Mediterranean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ganot, M.; Yair, Y.; Price, C.; Ziv, B.; Sherez, Y.; Greenberg, E.; Devir, A.; Yaniv, R.; Bor, J.; Satori, G.

2006-12-01

The results of the 2005-6 winter sprite campaign in Israel are reported. We conducted optical ground-based observations aiming to detect transient luminous events (TLEs) above winter thunderstorms in Israel and in the area over the Mediterranean Sea between Israel, Cyprus and Lebanon. We alternated between two observation sites: the Tel-Aviv University campus in central Tel-Aviv (32.5N, 34.5E) and the Wise astronomical observatory in the Negev desert, near Mitzpe-Ramon (30N, 34.5E). We used 2 WATEC cameras, mounted on a pan-and- tilt unit with GPS time-base and event-detection software (UFO-Capture). The system was remote-controlled via the Internet and targets were chosen in real-time based on lightning locations derived from a BOLTEK lightning detection system stationed in Tel-Aviv. Detailed weather forecasts and careful analysis of lightning probability allowed us to choose between the two observation sites. The optical campaign was accompanied by ELF and VLF electromagnetic measurements from the existing TAU array in southern Israel. During five separate winter storms (December 2005 through March 2006) we detected 31 events: 27 sprites (4 halo sprites) and 4 elves. Detection ranges varied from 250 to 450km. Sprites were found to occur almost exclusively over the sea, in the height range 44-105km. Most sprites were columnar, and the number of elements varied from 1 to 9 with lengths varying from 10 to 48km. The average duration of sprites was ~43ms. All TLEs were accompanied by distinct positive ELF transients, which were clearly identified by our ELF station in Mizpe-Ramon and by the ELF station near Sopron, Hungary (range ~2500km). Calculated charge moment values were 800-1870 C·km, with some events exceeding 2500 C·km. We employed different lightning location systems (Israel Electrical Company LPATS and TOGA, ZEUS global networks) to determine the ground location of the parent lightning and succeeded in geo-locating 7 events. Based on weather radar and

[Diagnosis and treatment of thyroid storm].

PubMed

Akamizu, Takashi

2012-11-01

Thyrotoxic storm is a life-threatening condition requiring emergency treatment. Neither its epidemiological data nor diagnostic criteria have been fully established. We clarified the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of thyroid storm using nationwide surveys and then formulate diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm. To perform the nationwide survey on thyroid storm, we first developed tentative diagnostic criteria for thyroid storm, mainly based upon the literature (the first edition). We analyzed the relationship of the major features of thyroid storm to mortality and to certain other features. Finally, based upon the findings of these surveys, we revised the diagnostic criteria. Thyrotoxic storm is still a life-threatening disorder with over 10% mortality in Japan.

Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

Treesearch

Johnny M. III Grace

2008-01-01

Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

Characterization of Mediterranean hail-bearing storms using an operational polarimetric X-band radar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vulpiani, G.; Baldini, L.; Roberto, N.

2015-11-01

This work documents the effective use of X-band radar observations for monitoring severe storms in an operational framework. Two severe hail-bearing Mediterranean storms that occurred in 2013 in southern Italy, flooding two important Sicilian cities, are described in terms of their polarimetric radar signatures and retrieved rainfall fields. The X-band dual-polarization radar operating inside the Catania airport (Sicily, Italy), managed by the Italian Department of Civil Protection, is considered here. A suitable processing is applied to X-band radar measurements. The crucial procedural step relies on the differential phase processing, being preparatory for attenuation correction and rainfall estimation. It is based on an iterative approach that uses a very short-length (1 km) moving window, allowing proper capture of the observed high radial gradients of the differential phase. The parameterization of the attenuation correction algorithm, which uses the reconstructed differential phase shift, is derived from electromagnetic simulations based on 3 years of drop size distribution (DSD) observations collected in Rome (Italy). A fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm was also adopted to support the analysis of the storm characteristics. The precipitation field amounts were reconstructed using a combined polarimetric rainfall algorithm based on reflectivity and specific differential phase. The first storm was observed on 21 February when a winter convective system that originated in the Tyrrhenian Sea, marginally hit the central-eastern coastline of Sicily, causing a flash flood in Catania. Due to an optimal location (the system is located a few kilometers from the city center), it was possible to retrieve the storm characteristics fairly well, including the amount of rainfall field at the ground. Extemporaneous signal extinction, caused by close-range hail core causing significant differential phase shift in a very short-range path, is documented. The second

Research on the impacts of past and future hurricanes on the endangered Florida manatee: Chapter 6J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Beck, C.A.; Butler, Susan M.

2007-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from 1982 through 1998 identified lower apparent survival rates for adult manatees during years when Hurricane Elena (1985), the March "Storm of the Century"(1993), and Hurricane Opal (1995) hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although our analysis showed that a significant number of our monitored individual manatees failed to return to their winter homes after these storms, their actual fate remains unknown. With the aid of new satellite technology to track manatees during storms and new statistical techniques to determine survival and emigration rates, researchers are working to understand how hurricanes impact the endangered species by studying manatees caught in the path of the destructive hurricanes of 2004 and 2005.

The threshold between storm overwash and inundation and the implication to paleo-storm records and climate signatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Long, J.; Osterman, L. E.; Plant, N. G.; Marot, M. E.; Bernier, J.; Flocks, J. G.; Adams, C. S.

2014-12-01

In modern coastal systems, the sensitivity of a coastal site to erosion or deposition during storm conditions depends largely on the geomorphic configuration (e.g. dune or beach height and width) and the storm-induced oceanographic processes (surge and waves). Depending on the magnitude of these variables, coastal systems may be eroded, overwashed, breached, and/or inundated during the storm. To date, there has been no attempt to evaluate how these observable modern differences in storm-impact regimes might be utilized to interpret paleo-storm intensities and frequencies. Time-series of sediment texture, radioisotopic, and foraminiferal data from back-barrier environments along the Chandeleur Islands (Louisiana, USA) document the emplacement of a storm event deposit from Hurricane Isaac and we use this event to test paleo-storm intensity reconstruction methods. Water level reconstructed for the event layer using an advection (grain-size) settling model are 2 - 3 times greater than measured during the storm. The over-estimation is linked to the reconstruction model's assumptions concerning sediment transport during storms (i.e., overwash only), while actual processes included inundation as well. These contrasts may result in misidentification (i.e., presence/absence) and/or misclassification (i.e., intensity) of storms in the geologic record (e.g., low geomorphic conditions and high water levels) that would in turn affect the ability to link storm frequency or intensity to climatic drivers.

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, Ravi; Ramachandran, Rahul; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, Stephen; Sharp, David; Williams, Earle; Boldi, Bob; Matlin, Anne; Weber, Mark

1998-01-01

A number of prior studies have examined the association of lightning activity with the occurrence of severe weather and tornadoes, in particular. High flash rates are often observed in tornadic storms (Taylor, 1973; Johnson, 1980; Goodman and Knupp, 1993) but not always. Taylor found that 23% of nontornadic storms and 1% of non-severe storms had sferics rates comparable to the tornadic storms. MacGorman (1993) found that storms with mesocyclones produced more frequent intracloud (IC) lightning than cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. MacGorman (1993) and others suggest that the lightning activity accompanying tomadic storms will be dominated by intracloud lightning-with an increase in intracloud and total flash rates as the updraft increases in depth, size, and velocity. In a recent study, Perez et al. (1998) found that CG flash rates alone are too variable to be a useful predictor of (F4, F5) tornado formation. Studies of non-tomadic storms have also shown that total lightning flash rates track the updraft, with rates increasing as the updraft intensities and decreasing rapidly with cessation of vertical growth or downburst onset (Goodman et al., 1988; Williams et al., 1989). Such relationships result from the development of mixed phase precipitation and increased hydrometer collisions that lead to the efficient separation of charge. Correlations between updraft strength and other variables such as cloud-top height, cloud water mass, and hail size have also been observed.

The ionospheric response to the Saint Patrick storm over South East Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spogli, L.; Alfonsi, L.; Di Mauro, D.; Pezzopane, M.; Cesaroni, C.; Povero, G., Sr.; Pini, M., Sr.; Dovis, F., Sr.; Romero, R.; Linty, N.; Abadi, P.; Nuraeni, F.; Husin, A.; Huy Le, M.; La The, V.; Pillat, V. G.; Floury, N.

2015-12-01

ERICA, a project funded by the European Space Agency, aims at characterizing the ionospheric variability of the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly in the South East Asia. In particular, ERICA focuses on the variation of the plasma electron density in the southern and northern crests of the anomaly and over the dip equator identified by the Equatorial Ionospheric Trough. To achieve this goal, an ad hoc measurements campaign is on-going with ground-based instruments located in the footprints of the Equatorial Ionospheric Anomaly and of the Equatorial Ionospheric Trough in Vietnam and Indonesia.The campaign started on the 1st of March 2015, timing to monitor the Saint Patrick storm effects on the ionosphere by means of ionosondes, double frequency hardware and software defined radio GNSS receivers, ground based and spaceborne magnetometers and Langmuir probe. Such multi-instrumental and multi-parametric observations of the region enables an in-depth investigation of the ionospheric response to the largest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle. The observations record positive and negative ionospheric storms, sporadic E layer and spread F conditions, scintillations enhancement and inhibition, TEC gradients. The ancillary information on the local magnetic field allows to highlight the variety of ionospheric perturbations happened during the main and the long recovery phase of the storm.The paper presents the outcomes of the investigation evidencing the peculiarities of a region not yet extensively reported in the open literature.

Large-Scale Antecedent Conditions Associated with 2014-2015 Winter Onset over North America and mid-Winter Storminess Along the North Atlantic Coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Papin, P. P.; Bentley, A. M.; Benjamin, M.; Winters, A. C.

2015-12-01

Winter 2014-2015 was marked by the coldest November weather in 35 years east of the Rockies and record-breaking snowstorms and cold from the eastern Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada in January and February 2015. Record-breaking warmth prevailed across the Intermountain West and Rockies beneath a persistent upper-level ridge. Winter began with a series of arctic air mass surges that culminated in an epic lake-effect snowstorm occurred over western New York before Thanksgiving and was followed by a series of snow and ice storms that disrupted Thanksgiving holiday travel widely. Winter briefly abated in part of December, but returned with a vengeance between mid-January and mid-February 2015 when multiple extreme weather events that featured record-breaking monthly and seasonal snowfalls and record-breaking daily minimum temperatures were observed. This presentation will show how: (1) the recurvature and extratropical transition (ET) of Supertyphoon (STY) Nuri in the western Pacific in early November 2014, and its subsequent explosive reintensification as an extratropical cyclone (EC), disrupted the North Pacific jet stream and downstream Northern Hemisphere (NH) circulation, produced high-latitude ridging and the formation of an omega block over western North America, triggered downstream baroclinic development and the formation of a deep trough over eastern North America, and ushered in winter 2014-2015, (2) the ET/EC of STY Nuri increased subsequent week two predictability over the North Pacific and North America in association with diabatically influenced high-latitude ridge building, and (3) the amplification of the large-scale NH flow pattern beginning in January 2015 resulted in the formation of persistent high-amplitude ridges over northeastern Russia, Alaska, western North America, and the North Atlantic while deep troughs formed over the eastern North Pacific and eastern North America. This persistent amplified flow pattern supported the occurrence of frequent

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model

Thromboembolic complications of thyroid storm.

PubMed

Min, T; Benjamin, S; Cozma, L

2014-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare but potentially life-threatening complication of hyperthyroidism. Early recognition and prompt treatment are essential. Atrial fibrillation can occur in up to 40% of patients with thyroid storm. Studies have shown that hyperthyroidism increases the risk of thromboembolic events. There is no consensus with regard to the initiation of anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation in severe thyrotoxicosis. Anticoagulation is not routinely initiated if the risk is low on a CHADS2 score; however, this should be considered in patients with thyroid storm or severe thyrotoxicosis with impending storm irrespective of the CHADS2 risk, as it appears to increase the risk of thromboembolic episodes. Herein, we describe a case of thyroid storm complicated by massive pulmonary embolism. Diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical findings. Early recognition and prompt treatment could lead to a favourable outcome.Hypercoagulable state is a recognised complication of thyrotoxicosis.Atrial fibrillation is strongly associated with hyperthyroidism and thyroid storm.Anticoagulation should be considered for patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and atrial fibrillation irrespective of the CHADS2 score.Patients with severe thyrotoxicosis and clinical evidence of thrombosis should be immediately anticoagulated until hyperthyroidism is under control.

Tropical Storm Sam, Eastern Indian Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-01-20

STS032-80-036 (9-20 Jan. 1990) --- This oblique view of Tropical Storm Sam in the eastern Indian Ocean off the western coast of Australia was photographed with a 70mm camera by the astronauts. Tropical Storm Sam (known as Willy-Willy in Australia) was born in the eastern Indian Ocean near the islands of Timor and Sumba in Indonesia. The storm tracked southwestward attaining sustained winds in excess of 60 knots (70 miles per hour). Other than on Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands south of Java, and for strong swells along the western Australia coast, the storm had little impact on land areas. At the time this photograph was taken, the storm was beginning to dissipate in the south Indian Ocean. The eye of the storm is still visible near center, with the swirling bands of the storm propagating in a clockwise direction toward the center. Winds aloft have begun to shear the tops of thunderstorms associated with the storm, forming a high cirrus cloud cover over the center portions of the storm. This picture was used by the crew at their January 30, 1990 Post-Flight Press Conference (PFPC).

Earthward penetration of Pc 4-5 waves and radiation belt electron enhancements during geospace magnetic storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daglis, I. A.; Georgiou, M.; Zesta, E.; Balasis, G.; Tsinganos, K.

2013-12-01

This paper addresses the question whether radiation belt electron enhancements are associated with ultra-low frequency (ULF) wave power penetrating to lower L-shells during intense geospace magnetic storms. We have examined the variation of relativistic electron fluxes in the inner magnetosphere during small, moderate, and intense storms and have compared them with concurrent variations of the power of Pc 4-5 waves, using multi-point wave observations from the IMAGE and CARISMA ground-based magnetometer arrays. We discuss the excitation, growth and decay characteristics of Pc 4-5 waves during the different phases of the three classes of magnetic storms, with particular emphasis on the distribution of wave power over a range of L shells. The work leading to this paper has received funding from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7-SPACE-2011-1) under grant agreement no. 284520 for the MAARBLE (Monitoring, Analyzing and Assessing Radiation Belt Energization and Loss) collaborative research project.

Perfect storm: Therapeutic plasma exchange for a patient with thyroid storm.

PubMed

McGonigle, Andrea M; Tobian, Aaron A R; Zink, Jennifer L; King, Karen E

2018-02-01

Thyroid storm is a potentially lethal complication of hyperthyroidism with increased thyroid hormones and exaggerated symptoms of thyrotoxicosis. First-line therapy includes methimazole (MMI) or propylthiouracil (PTU) to block production of thyroid hormones as a bridge toward definitive surgical treatment. Untreated thyroid storm has a mortality rate of up to 30%; this is particularly alarming when patients cannot tolerate or fail pharmacotherapy, especially if they cannot undergo thyroidectomy. Therapeutic plasma exchange (TPE) is an ASFA category III indication for thyroid storm, meaning the optimum role of this therapy is not established, and there are a limited number of cases in the literature. Yet TPE can remove T3 and T4 bound to albumin, autoantibodies, catecholamines and cytokines and is likely beneficial for these patients. We report a patient with thyroid storm who could not tolerate PTU, subsequently failed therapy with MMI, and was not appropriate for thyroidectomy. TPE was therefore performed daily for 4 days (1.0 plasma volume with 5% albumin replacement and 2 U of plasma). Over the treatment course, the patient's thyroid hormones normalized and symptoms of thyroid storm largely resolved; his T3 decreased from 2.27 to 0.81 ng/mL (normal 0.8-2.0), T4 decreased from 4.8 to 1.7 ng/mL (0.8-1.8), heart rate normalized, altered mental status improved, and he converted to normal sinus rhythm. He was ultimately discharged in euthyroid state. He experienced no side effects from his TPE procedures. TPE is a safe and effective treatment for thyroid storm when conventional treatments are not successful or appropriate. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Episodic acidification of a coastal plain stream in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Brien, A. K.; Eshleman, K.N.

1996-01-01

This study investigates the episodic acidification of Reedy Creek, a wetland-influenced coastal plain stream near Richmond, Virginia. Primary objectives of the study were to quantify the episodic variability of acid- base chemistry in Reedy Creek, to examine the seasonal variability in episodic response and to explain the hydrological and geochemical factors that contribute to episodic acidification. Chemical response was similar in each of the seven storms examined, however, the ranges in concentrations observed were commonly greater in summer/fall storms than in winter/spring storms. An increase in SO4/2- concentration with discharge was observed during all storms and peak concentration occurred at or near peak flow. Small increases in Mg2+, Ca2+, K+ concentrations and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were observed during most storms. At the same time, ANC, Na+ and Cl- concentrations usually decreased with increasing discharge. In summer/fall storms, the absolute increase in SO4/2- concentration was one-third to 15 times the increase observed in winter/spring storms; the decrease in ANC during summer/fall storms was usually within the range of the decrease observed in winter/spring storms. In contrast, the decrease in Na+ and Cl- concentrations during winter/spring storms was much greater than that observed during summer/fall storms. Data show that while base flow anion deficit was higher in summer/fall than in winter/spring, anion deficit decreased during most summer/fall storms. In contrast, base flow anion deficit was lower in spring and winter, but increased during winter/spring storms. Increased SO4/2- concentration was the main cause of episodic acidification during storms at Reedy Creek, but increased anion deficit indicates organic acids may contribute to episodic acidification during winter/spring storms. Changes in SO4/2- concentration coincident with the hydrograph rise indicate quick routing of water through the watershed. Saturation overland flow

Storm-driven delivery of sediment to the continental slope: Numerical modeling for the northern Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harris, C. K.; Kniskern, T. A.; Arango, H.

2016-02-01

The supply of sediment from the continental shelf to deeper waters is of critical importance for building continental margin repositories of sediment, and may also factor into episodic events on the continental slope such as turbidity currents and slope failures. While numerical sediment transport models have been developed for coastal and continental shelf areas, they have not often been used to infer sediment delivery to deeper waters. A three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic - suspended sediment transport model for the northern Gulf of Mexico has been developed and run to evaluate the types of conditions that are associated with delivery of suspended sediment to the continental slope. Accounting for sediment delivery by riverine plumes and for sediment resuspension by energetic waves and currents, the sediment transport calculations were implemented within the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). The model domain represents the northern Gulf of Mexico shelf and slope including the Mississippi birdfoot delta and the Mississippi and DeSoto Canyons. To investigate the role of storms in driving down-slope sediment fluxes, model runs that encompassed fall, 2007 through late summer, 2008 the summer and fall of 2008 were analyzed. This time period included several winter storms, and the passage of two hurricanes (Ike and Gustav) over the study area. Preliminary results indicated that sediment delivery to the continental slope was triggered by the passage of these storm events, and focused at certain locations, such as submarine canyons. Additionally, a climatological analysis indicates that storm track influences both the wind-driven currents and wave energy on the shelf, and as such plays an important role in determining which storms trigger delivery of suspended continental shelf sediment to the adjacent slope.

Dust Storm Covers Opportunity

NASA Image and Video Library

2018-06-10

This global map of Mars shows a growing dust storm as of June 6, 2018. The map was produced by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter spacecraft. The blue dot shows the approximate location of Opportunity. The storm was first detected on June 1. The MARCI camera has been used to monitor the storm ever since. Full dust storms like this one are not surprising, but are infrequent. They can crop up suddenly but last weeks, even months. During southern summer, sunlight warms dust particles, lifting them higher into the atmosphere and creating more wind. That wind kicks up yet more dust, creating a feedback loop that NASA scientists still seek to understand. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA22329

Influence of Solar Variability on the North Atlantic / European Sector.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gray, L. J.

2016-12-01

The 11year solar cycle signal in December-January-February averaged mean-sea-level pressure and Atlantic/European blocking frequency is examined using multilinear regression with indices to represent variability associated with the solar cycle, volcanic eruptions, the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results from a previous 11-year solar cycle signal study of the period 1870-2010 (140 years; 13 solar cycles) that suggested a 3-4 year lagged signal in SLP over the Atlantic are confirmed by analysis of a much longer reconstructed dataset for the period 1660-2010 (350 years; 32 solar cycles). Apparent discrepancies between earlier studies are resolved and stem primarily from the lagged nature of the response and differences between early- and late-winter responses. Analysis of the separate winter months provide supporting evidence for two mechanisms of influence, one operating via the atmosphere that maximises in late winter at 0-2 year lags and one via the mixd-layer ocean that maximises in early winter at 3-4 year lags. Corresponding analysis of DJF-averaged Atlantic / European blocking frequency shows a highly statistically significant signal at 1-year lag that originates promarily from the late winter response. The 11-year solar signal in DJF blocking frequency is compared with other known influences from ENSO and the AMO and found to be as large in amplitude and have a larger region of statistical significance.

A Process-Based Insight into the Severity of 'Super' Storm Desmond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom; Murphy, Conor; Gerard, McCarthy; Rob, Wilby

2017-04-01

Climate warming is projected to increase winter rainfall and societally-impactful flood frequency across the British-Irish Isles (BI). The dynamical explanation for this change is linked to the North Atlantic (NA) storm track, with projections indicating both an enhanced frequency of wintertime extratropical cyclones ('cyclones'), and an increase in their average precipitation. The latter is, in part, a result of more intense moisture transport in cyclones' warm sectors by 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), thermodynamically-driven by enhanced absolute humidity consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. It is against this backdrop that we scrutinise the physical drivers of the record-breaking rain and flood event associated with 'Storm Desmond' in December, 2015. We find that more than 3,500 km2 experienced rainfall in excess of the mean annual maximum during the storm's passage. The exceptional rain amounts were due to an AR more intense than any other in our observational record (1979-2015). However, we find that its unparalleled strength was as much a consequence of strong wind speeds as high humidity, so its severity cannot be attributed so simply to climate warming. This position is made clearer through a Lagrangian air mass tracking procedure, where we show that most (67%) of the moisture that precipitated out over BI during Desmond's passage evaporated from sea surfaces that were cooler than their 1951-1980 average. We therefore conclude that 1) the process-based observational approach applied here can provide valuable insight into climate change attribution assessments; and 2) Storm Desmond - despite being the most severe on record - was perhaps moderated by the anomalously cool NA sea-surface temperatures, which may have suppressed evaporation and vapour transport. The capacity for an even more impactful AR should SSTs in the sub-polar NA return to even their 20th Century averages, given otherwise identical synoptic circulation, should therefore be

Assessment of the Barren Ground Caribou Die-off During Winter 2015-2016 Using Passive Microwave Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolant, C.; Montpetit, B.; Langlois, A.; Brucker, L.; Zolina, O.; Johnson, C. A.; Royer, A.; Smith, P.

2018-05-01

In summer 2016, more than 50 Arctic Barren Ground caribous were found dead on Prince Charles Island (Nunavut, Canada), a species recently classified as threatened. Neither predator nor sign of diseases was observed and reported. The main hypothesis is that caribous were not able to access food due to a very dense snow surface, created by a strong storm system in spring. Using satellite microwave data, a significant increase in brightness temperature polarization ratio at 19 and 37 GHz was observed in spring 2016 (60% higher than previous two winter seasons). Based on microwave radiative transfer simulations, such anomaly can be explained with a very dense snow surface. This is consistent with the succession of storms and strong winds highlighted in ERA-Interim over Prince Charles Island in spring 2016. Using several sources of data, this study shows that changes in snow conditions explain the caribou die-off due to restricted foraging.

Numerical simulation of a rare winter hailstorm event over Delhi, India on 17 January 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chevuturi, A.; Dimri, A. P.; Gunturu, U. B.

2014-12-01

This study analyzes the cause of the rare occurrence of a winter hailstorm over New Delhi/NCR (National Capital Region), India. The absence of increased surface temperature or low level of moisture incursion during winter cannot generate the deep convection required for sustaining a hailstorm. Consequently, NCR shows very few cases of hailstorms in the months of December-January-February, making the winter hail formation a question of interest. For this study, a recent winter hailstorm event on 17 January 2013 (16:00-18:00 UTC) occurring over NCR is investigated. The storm is simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) microphysics scheme with two different options: hail and graupel. The aim of the study is to understand and describe the cause of hailstorm event during over NCR with a comparative analysis of the two options of GCE microphysics. Upon evaluating the model simulations, it is observed that the hail option shows a more similar precipitation intensity with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation than the graupel option does, and it is able to simulate hail precipitation. Using the model-simulated output with the hail option; detailed investigation on understanding the dynamics of hailstorm is performed. The analysis based on a numerical simulation suggests that the deep instability in the atmospheric column led to the formation of hailstones as the cloud formation reached up to the glaciated zone promoting ice nucleation. In winters, such instability conditions rarely form due to low level available potential energy and moisture incursion along with upper level baroclinic instability due to the presence of a western disturbance (WD). Such rare positioning is found to be lowering the tropopause with increased temperature gradient, leading to winter hailstorm formation.

Ionospheric storms at geophysically-equivalent sites - Part 1: Storm-time patterns for sub-auroral ionospheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendillo, M.; Narvaez, C.

2009-04-01

The systematic study of ionospheric storms has been conducted primarily with groundbased data from the Northern Hemisphere. Significant progress has been made in defining typical morphology patterns at all latitudes; mechanisms have been identified and tested via modeling. At higher mid-latitudes (sites that are typically sub-auroral during non-storm conditions), the processes that change significantly during storms can be of comparable magnitudes, but with different time constants. These include ionospheric plasma dynamics from the penetration of magnetospheric electric fields, enhancements to thermospheric winds due to auroral and Joule heating inputs, disturbance dynamo electrodynamics driven by such winds, and thermospheric composition changes due to the changed circulation patterns. The ~12° tilt of the geomagnetic field axis causes significant longitude effects in all of these processes in the Northern Hemisphere. A complementary series of longitude effects would be expected to occur in the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we begin a series of studies to investigate the longitudinal-hemispheric similarities and differences in the response of the ionosphere's peak electron density to geomagnetic storms. The ionosonde stations at Wallops Island (VA) and Hobart (Tasmania) have comparable geographic and geomagnetic latitudes for sub-auroral locations, are situated at longitudes close to that of the dipole tilt, and thus serve as our candidate station-pair choice for studies of ionospheric storms at geophysically-comparable locations. They have an excellent record of observations of the ionospheric penetration frequency (foF2) spanning several solar cycles, and thus are suitable for long-term studies. During solar cycle #20 (1964-1976), 206 geomagnetic storms occurred that had Ap≥30 or Kp≥5 for at least one day of the storm. Our analysis of average storm-time perturbations (percent deviations from the monthly means) showed a remarkable agreement at both

Particulate Organic Matter Composition in Stream Runoff Following Large Storms: Role of POM Sources, Particle Size, and Event Characteristics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Erin R.; Inamdar, Shreeram; Kan, Jinjun; Vargas, Rodrigo

2018-02-01

Large storm events possess significant erosive energy capable of mobilizing large amounts of sediment and particulate organic matter (POM) into fluvial systems. This study investigated how stream POM composition varied as a function of the watershed POM source, particle size, storm event magnitude, and seasonal timing. POM composition was characterized for multiple watershed sources and for stream POM following storms in a second-order forested stream. Carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) amount, C:N ratio and isotopic content (13C and 15N) were determined for solid phase POM, whereas dissolved organic C, total N concentrations, and fluorescence characteristics were determined for solution/extracted POM. Key findings from this study were the following: (1) Composition of POM varied greatly with watershed sources with forest floor litter being C and N rich and labile, while stream banks and bed were C and N poor and recalcitrant. (2) Summer storms mobilized more carbon and nitrogen-rich labile sources, while winter events mobilized more carbon- and nitrogen-poor refractory material from near-stream sources. (3) POM composition varied by size class, with the coarse POM showing more C and N rich and labile properties, while the fine POM displayed more degraded and refractory properties. If climate variability increases the magnitude and intensity of large storm events, our observations suggest that this will not only increase the inputs of POM to aquatic systems but also result in the delivery of coarser, C and N rich, and more bioavailable POM to the stream drainage network.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

Mesoscale Coastal Behavior of a Deltaic Barrier Island: Storm-Driven Evolution and Morphodynamic Feedbacks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Zăinescu, Florin; Tătui, Florin; Preoteasa, Luminişa

2017-04-01

overwash) are of 10-30 years, depending on the storm climate. Therefore, the multi-decadal transformations of the central Sacalin depend on the interplay between storm regime and barrier widths, which points to a major influence of the morphodynamic feedbacks in modulating the storm morphological impact and imposing a rhythmic evolution of the barrier, with the narrow sectors becoming wide and vice-versa. Nevertheless, large oscillations in storm regime may induce unusual barrier morphodynamics. It was the case of the last calm interval (2005-2015), in fact an exceptional negative anomaly, when the storm frequency decreased to half of the multi-decadal average. As a consequence, the formation of washover fans was inhibited and restricted to only a few small-size fans, contributing to the unprecedented central barrier narrowing. In these conditions, during 2012-2013 winter, an atypical southern storm (December 2012), very short but intense, produced a high storm surge which caused massive overtopping in the central part of the spit, favoured by the small width of the island in this sector, creating an exceptional large breach (of ca. 2 km). In the next two months, even low storms enlarged the breach, transforming it into the biggest breaching (3.5 km wide) ever recorded in more than 100 yr of Sacalin evolution. This case documents how a prolonged low storminess interval may trigger barrier island destabilisation or even destruction.

Profiles of Ionospheric Storm-enhanced Density during the 17 March 2015 Great Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Wang, W.; Burns, A. G.; Yue, X.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Y.

2015-12-01

Ionospheric F2 region peak densities (NmF2) are expected to show a positive phase correlation with total electron content (TEC), and electron density is expected to have an anti-correlation with electron temperature near the ionospheric F2 peak. However, we show that, during the 17 March 2015 great storm, TEC and F2 region electron density peak height (hmF2) over Millstone Hill increased, but the F2 region electron density peak (NmF2) decreased significantly during the storm-enhanced density (SED) phase of the storm compared with the quiet-time ionosphere. This SED occurred where there was a negative ionospheric storm near the F2 peak and below it. The weak ionosphere below the F2 peak resulted in much reduced downward heat conduction for the electrons, trapping the heat in the topside. This, in turn, increased the topside scale height, so that, even though electron densities at the F2 peak were depleted, TEC increased in the SED. The depletion in NmF2 was probably caused by an increase in the density of the molecular neutrals, resulting in enhanced recombination. In addition, the storm-time topside ionospheric electron density profile was much closer to diffusive equilibrium than non-storm time profile because of less daytime plasma flow from the ionosphere to the plasmasphere.

Ionospheric redistribution during geomagnetic storms

PubMed Central

Immel, T J; Mannucci, A J

2013-01-01

[1]The abundance of plasma in the daytime ionosphere is often seen to grow greatly during geomagnetic storms. Recent reports suggest that the magnitude of the plasma density enhancement depends on the UT of storm onset. This possibility is investigated over a 7year period using global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) produced at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The analysis confirms that the American sector exhibits, on average, larger storm time enhancement in ionospheric plasma content, up to 50% in the afternoon middle-latitude region and 30% in the vicinity of the high-latitude auroral cusp, with largest effect in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate whether this effect is related to the magnitude of the causative magnetic storms. Using the same advanced Dst index employed to sort the TEC maps into quiet and active (Dst<−100 nT) sets, we find variation in storm strength that corresponds closely to the TEC variation but follows it by 3–6h. For this and other reasons detailed in this report, we conclude that the UT-dependent peak in storm time TEC is likely not related to the magnitude of external storm time forcing but more likely attributable to phenomena such as the low magnetic field in the South American region. The large Dst variation suggests a possible system-level effect of the observed variation in ionospheric storm response on the measured strength of the terrestrial ring current, possibly connected through UT-dependent modulation of ion outflow. PMID:26167429

Ionospheric redistribution during geomagnetic storms.

PubMed

Immel, T J; Mannucci, A J

2013-12-01

[1]The abundance of plasma in the daytime ionosphere is often seen to grow greatly during geomagnetic storms. Recent reports suggest that the magnitude of the plasma density enhancement depends on the UT of storm onset. This possibility is investigated over a 7year period using global maps of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) produced at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The analysis confirms that the American sector exhibits, on average, larger storm time enhancement in ionospheric plasma content, up to 50% in the afternoon middle-latitude region and 30% in the vicinity of the high-latitude auroral cusp, with largest effect in the Southern Hemisphere. We investigate whether this effect is related to the magnitude of the causative magnetic storms. Using the same advanced Dst index employed to sort the TEC maps into quiet and active ( D s t <-100 nT) sets, we find variation in storm strength that corresponds closely to the TEC variation but follows it by 3-6h. For this and other reasons detailed in this report, we conclude that the UT-dependent peak in storm time TEC is likely not related to the magnitude of external storm time forcing but more likely attributable to phenomena such as the low magnetic field in the South American region. The large Dst variation suggests a possible system-level effect of the observed variation in ionospheric storm response on the measured strength of the terrestrial ring current, possibly connected through UT-dependent modulation of ion outflow.

Modeling of storm runoff and pollutant wash off processes during storm event in rapidly urbanizing catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, H. P.; Yu, X. Y.; Khu, S. T.

2009-04-01

Many urban catchments in developing countries are undergoing fast economic growth, population expansion and land use/cover change. Due to the mixture of agricultural/industrial/residential land use or different urbanization level as well as lack of historical monitoring data in the developing area, storm-water runoff pollution modeling is faced with challenges of considerable spatial variations and data insufficiency. Shiyan Reservoir catchment is located in the rapidly urbanizing coastal region of Southeast China. It has six sub-catchments with largely different land use patterns and urbanization levels. A simple semi-distributed model was used to simulate the storm-water runoff pollution process during storm event in the catchment. The model adopted modified IHACRES model and exponential wash-off functions to describe storm-runoff and pollutant wash-off processes, respectively, in each of six sub-catchments. Temporary hydrological and water quality monitoring sites were set at the downstream section of each sub-catchment in Feb-May 2007, spanning non-rain and rain seasons. And the model was calibrated for storm-runoff and water quality data during two typical storm events with rainfall amount of 10mm/4hr and 73mm/5hr, respectively. The results indicated that the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) coefficients are greater than 0.65 and 0.55 respectively for storm-runoff model calibration and validation. However although NS coefficients can reach 0.7~0.9 for pollutant wash-off model calibration based on measured data in each storm event, the simulation data can not fit well with the measured data in model validation. According to field survey observation, many litters and residuals were found to distribute in disorder in some sub-catchments or their drainage systems and to instantaneously wash off into the surface water when the rainfall amount and intensity are large enough. In order to improve storm-water runoff pollution simulation in the catchment, the variations of pollutant

Appraisal of storm-water quality near Salem, Oregon

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Miller, T.L.

Stormwater runoff for the period December 1979 to May 1981, at 13 sites in the vicinity of Salem, Oregon, was sampled and analyzed for water quality. Constituent concentrations for urban storm water were relatively small when compared to samples from Portland and Medford, Oregon and to samples from Denver, Colorado. The data indicated that levels of suspended sediment, ultimate CBOD (carbonaceous biochemical oxygen demand), and total lead increased with increased urbanization. Because of small chemical concentrations and winter high flow and low temperature conditions in the Willamette River, Salem storm water probably has little effect on biological or on mostmore » chemical conditions in the Willamette River. An analysis of data from a stormwater detention pond indicated that the facility was about 47% efficient in reducing suspended sediment loads. Precipitation samples collected at one site for a year were found to be acidic, with a median pH of 4.6. Median total lead concentration was 8 micrograms/L (ug/L) in precipitation, whereas the median total lead concentration in runoff from the 12 basins ranged from 8 to 110 ug/L. The median dissolved ammonia concentration in precipitation was larger than the median dissolved ammonia concentration at all 13 sites. In contrast, the median total Kjeldahl nitrogen concentration in precipitation samples was about half the median for streamwater concentrations. Median ratios of sulfate to chloride and nitrate to chloride in precipitation were much higher than ratios expected for sea water, suggesting anthropogenic sources for sulfate and nitrate. 24 refs., 6 figs., 7 tabs.« less

Landslides triggered by the winter 1996-97 storms in the Puget Lowland, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baum, Rex L.; Chleborad, Alan F.; Schuster, Robert L.

1998-01-01

Snowmelt and rainfall events triggered many landslides and debris flows in the Seattle, Washington, area during late December 1996 and January and March 1997. Landslides caused the deaths of at least four people, millions of dollars in damage to public and private property, lost revenues, traffic diversions, and other direct and indirect losses. Although shallow slides and debris flows were the most common slope failures, many deep-seated slides also occurred. Comparing maps that show distribution of historic landslides with reports of landslides compiled by city and county governments for the winter of 1996-97 and our field reconnaissance of recent landslide deposits and scars indicates that many bluffs and steep hillsides are sites of recurring failures. Investigation of the 1996-97 landslides indicates that houses and other structures built downslope from steep bluffs are in particular danger of impact by debris flows, while those on the benches, slopes, or rim of bluffs are subject to severe damage by deep slides.

The Electric Storm of November 1882

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Love, Jeffrey J.

2018-01-01

In November 1882, an intense magnetic storm related to a large sunspot group caused widespread interference to telegraph and telephone systems and provided spectacular and unusual auroral displays. The (ring current) storm time disturbance index for this storm reached maximum -Dst ≈ 386 nT, comparable to Halloween storm of 29-31 October 2003, but from 17 to 20 November the aa midlatitude geomagnetic disturbance index averaged 214.25 nT, the highest 4 day level of disturbance since the beginning of aa index in 1868. This storm contributed to scientists' understanding of the reality of solar-terrestrial interaction. Past occurrences of magnetic storms, like that of November 1882, can inform modern evaluations of the deleterious effects that a magnetic superstorm might have on technological systems of importance to society.

A statistical model of extreme storm rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, James A.; Karr, Alan F.

1990-02-01

A model of storm rainfall is developed for the central Appalachian region of the United States. The model represents the temporal occurrence of major storms and, for a given storm, the spatial distribution of storm rainfall. Spatial inhomogeneities of storm rainfall and temporal inhomogeneities of the storm occurrence process are explicitly represented. The model is used for estimating recurrence intervals of extreme storms. The parameter estimation procedure developed for the model is based on the substitution principle (method of moments) and requires data from a network of rain gages. The model is applied to a 5000 mi2 (12,950 km2) region in the Valley and Ridge Province of Virginia and West Virginia.

Coastal Storm Hazards from Virginia to Maine

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

study, storm surge, tide, waves, wind, atmospheric pressure, and currents were the dominant storm responses computed. The effect of sea level change on...coastal storm hazards and vulnerability nationally (USACE 2015). NACCS goals also included evaluating the effect of future sea level change (SLC) on...the computed high-fidelity responses included storm surge, astronomical tide, waves, wave effects on water levels, storm duration, wind, currents

European core curriculum in neurorehabilitation

PubMed Central

Sandrini, Giorgio; Binder, Heinrich; Hömberg, Volker; Saltuari, Leopold; Tarkka, Ina; Smania, Nicola; Corradini, Claudio; Giustini, Alessandro; Kätterer, Christian; Picari, Ledina; Diserens, Karin; Koenig, Eberhard; Geurts, Alexander; Anghelescu, Aurelian; Opara, Józef; Tonin, Paolo; Kwakkel, Gert; Golyk, Volodymyr; Onose, Gelu; Pérennou, Dominique; Picelli, Alessandro

2017-01-01

Summary To date, medical education lacks Europe-wide standards on neurorehabilitation. To address this, the European Federation of NeuroRehabilitation Societies (EFNR) here proposes a postgraduate neurorehabilitation training scheme. In particular, the European medical core curriculum in neurorehabilitation should include a two-year residency in a neurorehabilitation setting where trainees can gain practical experience. Furthermore, it should comprise six modules of classroom training organized as weekend seminars or summer/winter schools. In conclusion, after defining the European medical core curriculum in neurorehabilitation, the next activities of the EFNR will be to try and reach the largest possible consensus on its content among all national societies across Europe in order to further validate it and try to extend it to the other, non-medical, professionals on the neurorehabilitation team in line with their core curricula defined by each professional association. PMID:28676138

At the eye of the storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flasar, F. M.

1991-01-01

The great storm now going on in the atmosphere of Saturn is discussed. Observational results are summarized, and possible explanations for the storm's origin are addressed. The potential for ongoing observations to clarify the storm's causes is considered.

Thyroid storm: an updated review.

PubMed

Chiha, Maguy; Samarasinghe, Shanika; Kabaker, Adam S

2015-03-01

Thyroid storm, an endocrine emergency first described in 1926, remains a diagnostic and therapeutic challenge. No laboratory abnormalities are specific to thyroid storm, and the available scoring system is based on the clinical criteria. The exact mechanisms underlying the development of thyroid storm from uncomplicated hyperthyroidism are not well understood. A heightened response to thyroid hormone is often incriminated along with increased or abrupt availability of free hormones. Patients exhibit exaggerated signs and symptoms of hyperthyroidism and varying degrees of organ decompensation. Treatment should be initiated promptly targeting all steps of thyroid hormone formation, release, and action. Patients who fail medical therapy should be treated with therapeutic plasma exchange or thyroidectomy. The mortality of thyroid storm is currently reported at 10%. Patients who have survived thyroid storm should receive definite therapy for their underlying hyperthyroidism to avoid any recurrence of this potentially fatal condition. © The Author(s) 2013.

The electric storm of November 1882

USGS Publications Warehouse

Love, Jeffrey J.

2018-01-01

In November 1882, an intense magnetic storm related to a large sunspot group caused widespread interference to telegraph and telephone systems and provided spectacular and unusual auroral displays. The (ring current) storm time disturbance index for this storm reached maximum −Dst ≈ 386 nT, comparable to Halloween storm of 29–31 October 2003, but from 17 to 20 November the aa midlatitude geomagnetic disturbance index averaged 214.25 nT, the highest 4 day level of disturbance since the beginning of aa index in 1868. This storm contributed to scientists' understanding of the reality of solar‐terrestrial interaction. Past occurrences of magnetic storms, like that of November 1882, can inform modern evaluations of the deleterious effects that a magnetic superstorm might have on technological systems of importance to society.

Solar radio continuum storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1974-01-01

Radio noise continuum emission observed in metric and decametric wave frequencies is discussed. The radio noise is associated with actively varying sunspot groups accompanied by the S-component of microwave radio emissions. It is shown that the S-component emission in microwave frequencies generally occurs several days before the emission of the noise continuum storms of lower frequencies. It is likely that energetic electrons, 10 to 100 Kev, accelerated in association with the variation of sunspot magnetic fields, are the sources of the radio emissions. A model is considered to explain the relation of burst storms on radio noise. An analysis of the role of energetic electrons on the emissions of both noise continuum and type III burst storms is presented. It is shown that instabilities associated with the electrons and their relation to their own stabilizing effects are important in interpreting both of these storms.

Atmospheric impacts of the strongest known solar particle storm of 775 AD.

PubMed

Sukhodolov, Timofei; Usoskin, Ilya; Rozanov, Eugene; Asvestari, Eleanna; Ball, William T; Curran, Mark A J; Fischer, Hubertus; Kovaltsov, Gennady; Miyake, Fusa; Peter, Thomas; Plummer, Christopher; Schmutz, Werner; Severi, Mirko; Traversi, Rita

2017-03-28

Sporadic solar energetic particle (SEP) events affect the Earth's atmosphere and environment, in particular leading to depletion of the protective ozone layer in the Earth's atmosphere, and pose potential technological and even life hazards. The greatest SEP storm known for the last 11 millennia (the Holocene) occurred in 774-775 AD, serving as a likely worst-case scenario being 40-50 times stronger than any directly observed one. Here we present a systematic analysis of the impact such an extreme event can have on the Earth's atmosphere. Using state-of-the-art cosmic ray cascade and chemistry-climate models, we successfully reproduce the observed variability of cosmogenic isotope 10 Be, around 775 AD, in four ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica, thereby validating the models in the assessment of this event. We add to prior conclusions that any nitrate deposition signal from SEP events remains too weak to be detected in ice cores by showing that, even for such an extreme solar storm and sub-annual data resolution, the nitrate deposition signal is indistinguishable from the seasonal cycle. We show that such a severe event is able to perturb the polar stratosphere for at least one year, leading to regional changes in the surface temperature during northern hemisphere winters.

Contrasting responses of the extended Gulf Stream to severe winter forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, Z.; Grist, J. P.; Marsh, R.; Josey, S. A.; Sinha, B.

2015-12-01

Changes in the path and strength of the extended Gulf Stream, downstream of Cape Hatteras, and the North Atlantic Current (GSNAC), are associated with strong wintertime air-sea interactions that can further influence the atmospheric storm track. The GSNAC response to anomalous air-sea heat fluxes in particular is dependent on the location of excess heat loss, in turn related to meteorological circumstances. Outbreaks of cold continental air may lead to excess cooling over the Sargasso Sea, as in 1976-77. Under these circumstances, the Gulf Stream may intensify through a steepening of cross-stream density gradients. An alternative scenario prevailed during the cold outbreak of 2013-14 where excess cooling occurred over the central subpolar gyre and may have influenced the extreme storminess experienced in western Europe. An objectively-analysed temperature and salinity product (EN4) is used to investigate the variability of the GSNAC. Temperature and salinity profiles are used to obtain geostrophic transport at selected GSNAC transects, confirming strong horizontal temperature gradients and a positive geostrophic velocity anomaly at 70oW in spring 1977, the strongest spring transport seen in the 1970s at this location. In addition to observations, an eddy-resolving model hindcast spanning 1970-2013, is used to further characterise GSNAC transport variability, allowing a fuller assessment of the relationship between the winter surface heat flux, end-of-winter mixed layer depth, subtropical mode water volume and GSNAC transports. Preliminary results reveal a significant negative correlation between the winter surface heat flux over the Sargasso Sea and the GSNAC transport in the following spring.

Winter precipitation particle size distribution measurement by Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Gwo-Jong; Kleinkort, Cameron; Bringi, V. N.; Notaroš, Branislav M.

2017-12-01

From the radar meteorology viewpoint, the most important properties for quantitative precipitation estimation of winter events are 3D shape, size, and mass of precipitation particles, as well as the particle size distribution (PSD). In order to measure these properties precisely, optical instruments may be the best choice. The Multi-Angle Snowflake Camera (MASC) is a relatively new instrument equipped with three high-resolution cameras to capture the winter precipitation particle images from three non-parallel angles, in addition to measuring the particle fall speed using two pairs of infrared motion sensors. However, the results from the MASC so far are usually presented as monthly or seasonally, and particle sizes are given as histograms, no previous studies have used the MASC for a single storm study, and no researchers use MASC to measure the PSD. We propose the methodology for obtaining the winter precipitation PSD measured by the MASC, and present and discuss the development, implementation, and application of the new technique for PSD computation based on MASC images. Overall, this is the first study of the MASC-based PSD. We present PSD MASC experiments and results for segments of two snow events to demonstrate the performance of our PSD algorithm. The results show that the self-consistency of the MASC measured single-camera PSDs is good. To cross-validate PSD measurements, we compare MASC mean PSD (averaged over three cameras) with the collocated 2D Video Disdrometer, and observe good agreements of the two sets of results.

Storm-wave-induced seabed deformation: Results from in situ observation in the Yellow River subaqueous delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Y.; Wang, Z. Mr; Liu, X.; Shan, H.

2017-12-01

Submarine landslides move large volumes of sediment and are often hazardous to offshore installations. Current research into submarine landslides mainly relies on marine surveying techniques. In contrast, in situ observations of the submarine landslide process, specifically seabed deformation, are sparse, and therefore restrict our understanding of submarine landslide mechanisms and the establishment of a disaster warning scheme. The submarine landslide monitoring (SLM) system, which has been designed to partly overcome these pitfalls, can monitor storm-wave-induced submarine landslides in situ and over a long time period. The SLM system comprises two parts: (1) a hydrodynamic monitoring tripod for recording hydrodynamic data and (2) a shape accel array for recording seabed deformation at different depths. This study recorded the development of the SLM system and the results of in situ observation in the Yellow River Delta, China, during the boreal winter of 2014-2015. The results show an abrupt small-scale storm-wave-induced seabed shear deformation; the shear interface is in at least 1.5-m depth and the displacement of sediments at 1.23-m depth is more than 13 mm. The performance of the SLM system confirms the feasibility and stability of this approach. Further, the in situ observations, as well as the laboratory tests, helped reveal the profound mechanism of storm-wave-induced seabed deformation.

Dynamical characterization of the 2010/2011 winter Arctic ozone depletion replaced in a climatologic context

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiéblemont, R.; Huret, N.; Hauchecorne, A.; Drouin, M.

2011-12-01

The 2010/2011 stratospheric winter has recorded one of the strongest ozone depletion in the Arctic region since observations began. Such phenomenon is currently very difficult to predict as it strongly depends on winter dynamical conditions. The aim of this study is to characterize winter/spring dynamical stratospheric conditions and the ozone depletion yield. We used the AURA-MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder) measurements, the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) Era-Interim meteorological fields and the results of the potential vorticity contour advection model MIMOSA (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection). Dynamical processes associated with the 2010/2011 winter have been investigated and replaced in a climatologic context by comparing this winter to previous similar and different winter/spring seasons over the last 20 years. Preliminary results show that the polar night jet in 2010/2011 was of an extraordinary strength during February-March, as for the same period in 1995/1996 where the ozone depletion was close to 30 %. Using MIMOSA model, we also show that the polar vortex during February-March 2010/2011 was more centred above the pole than the climatologic location. Wave activity and heat fluxes deduced from ECMWF data allow us to evaluate the specific conditions encountered during this 2010/2011 winter and mechanisms which lead to such extreme situation.

Hazards of geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Herzog, D.C.

1992-01-01

Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment. 

33 CFR 100.109 - Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Winter Harbor Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. 100.109 Section 100.109 Navigation and Navigable Waters COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF... Lobster Boat Race, Winter Harbor, ME. (a) Regulated area. The regulated area includes all waters of Winter...

Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

2014-05-01

Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Bungato, D.; Cierniewski, J.; Jusem, J. C.; Przybylak, R.; Schubert, S.; Starr, D.; Walczewski, J.

2002-01-01

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud

Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-11-01

Vickery, P., D. Wadhera, A. Cox, V. Cardone , J. Hanson, and B. Blanton. 2012. Coastal storm surge analysis: Storm forcing (Intermediate Submission No...CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) Jeffrey L. Hanson, Michael F. Forte, Brian Blanton

The storm-time equatorial electrojet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrows, K.; Sastry, T. S. G.; Sampath, S.; Stolarik, J. D.; Usher, M. J.

1977-01-01

A Petrel rocket carrying a double cell rubidium magnetometer was launched from the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station during the early main phase of a magnetic storm. No ionospheric currents associated with the storm were observed, and the large field depression at the flight time must therefore be attributed to currents at higher altitudes. The equatorial enhancement of ionospheric magnetic storm currents, predicted on the basis of theory and earlier ground data, was not observed.

The storm-time equatorial electrojet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burrows, K.; Sastry, T. S. G.; Sampath, S.; Stolarik, J. D.; Usher, M. J.

1976-01-01

A Petrel rocket carrying a double cell rubidium magnetometer was launched from the Thumba Equatorial Rocket Launching Station during the early main phase of a magnetic storm. No ionospheric currents associated with the storm were observed and the large field depression, at the flight time, must therefore be attributed to currents at higher altitudes. The equatorial enhancement of ionospheric magnetic storm currents, predicted on the basis of theory and earlier ground data, was not observed.

Hubble Observes a New Saturn Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1994-01-01

This NASA Hubble Space Telescope image of the ringed planet Saturn shows a rare storm that appears as a white arrowhead-shaped feature near the planet's equator. The storm is generated by an upwelling of warmer air, similar to a terrestrial thunderhead. The east-west extent of this storm is equal to the diameter of the Earth (about 7,900 miles). Hubble provides new details about the effects of Saturn's prevailing winds on the storm. The new image shows that the storm's motion and size have changed little since its discovery in September, 1994.

The storm was imaged with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) in the wide field mode on December 1, 1994, when Saturn was 904 million miles from the Earth. The picture is a composite of images taken through different color filters within a 6 minute interval to create a 'true-color' rendition of the planet. The blue fringe on the right limb of the planet is an artifact of image processing used to compensate for the rotation of the planet between exposures.

The Hubble images are sharp enough to reveal that Saturn's prevailing winds shape a dark 'wedge' that eats into the western (left) side of the bright central cloud. The planet's strongest eastward winds (clocked at 1,000 miles per hour from analysis of Voyager spacecraft images taken in 1980-81) are at the latitude of the wedge.

To the north of this arrowhead-shaped feature, the winds decrease so that the storm center is moving eastward relative to the local flow. The clouds expanding north of the storm are swept westward by the winds at higher latitudes. The strong winds near the latitude of the dark wedge blow over the northern part of the storm, creating a secondary disturbance that generates the faint white clouds to the east (right) of the storm center.

The storm's white clouds are ammonia ice crystals that form when an upward flow of warmer gases shoves its way through Saturn's frigid cloud tops. This current storm is larger than the white clouds

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years. PMID:28178351

Winter to winter recurrence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia and its impact on winter surface air temperature anomalies.

PubMed

Zhao, Xia; Yang, Guang

2017-01-01

The persistence of atmospheric circulation anomalies over East Asia shows a winter to winter recurrence (WTWR) phenomenon. Seasonal variations in sea level pressure anomalies and surface wind anomalies display significantly different characteristics between WTWR and non-WTWR years. The WTWR years are characterized by the recurrence of both a strong (weak) anomalous Siberian High and an East Asian winter monsoon over two successive winters without persistence through the intervening summer. However, anomalies during the non-WTWR years have the opposite sign between the current and ensuing winters. The WTWR of circulation anomalies contributes to that of surface air temperature anomalies (SATAs), which is useful information for improving seasonal and interannual climate predictions over East Asia and China. In the positive (negative) WTWR years, SATAs are cooler (warmer) over East Asia in two successive winters, but the signs of the SATAs are opposite in the preceding and subsequent winters during the non-WTWR years.

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 169.329 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 169.329 Section 169.329 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) NAUTICAL SCHOOLS SAILING SCHOOL VESSELS Construction and Arrangement Rails and Guards § 169.329 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

Towards robust optimal design of storm water systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marquez Calvo, Oscar; Solomatine, Dimitri

2015-04-01

In this study the focus is on the design of a storm water or a combined sewer system. Such a system should be capable to handle properly most of the storm to minimize the damages caused by flooding due to the lack of capacity of the system to cope with rain water at peak times. This problem is a multi-objective optimization problem: we have to take into account the minimization of the construction costs, the minimization of damage costs due to flooding, and possibly other criteria. One of the most important factors influencing the design of storm water systems is the expected amount of water to deal with. It is common that this infrastructure is developed with the capacity to cope with events that occur once in, say 10 or 20 years - so-called design rainfall events. However, rainfall is a random variable and such uncertainty typically is not taken explicitly into account in optimization. Rainfall design data is based on historical information of rainfalls, but many times this data is based on unreliable measures; or in not enough historical information; or as we know, the patterns of rainfall are changing regardless of historical information. There are also other sources of uncertainty influencing design, for example, leakages in the pipes and accumulation of sediments in pipes. In the context of storm water or combined sewer systems design or rehabilitation, robust optimization technique should be able to find the best design (or rehabilitation plan) within the available budget but taking into account uncertainty in those variables that were used to design the system. In this work we consider various approaches to robust optimization proposed by various authors (Gabrel, Murat, Thiele 2013; Beyer, Sendhoff 2007) and test a novel method ROPAR (Solomatine 2012) to analyze robustness. References Beyer, H.G., & Sendhoff, B. (2007). Robust optimization - A comprehensive survey. Comput. Methods Appl. Mech. Engrg., 3190-3218. Gabrel, V.; Murat, C., Thiele, A. (2014

A weather regime characterisation of Irish wind generation and electricity demand in winters 2009–11

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cradden, Lucy C.; McDermott, Frank

2018-05-01

Prolonged cold spells were experienced in Ireland in the winters of 2009–10 and 2010–11, and electricity demand was relatively high at these times, whilst wind generation capacity factors were low. Such situations can cause difficulties for an electricity system with a high dependence on wind energy. Studying the atmospheric conditions associated with these two winters offers insights into the large-scale drivers for cold, calm spells, and helps to evaluate if they are rare events over the long-term. The influence of particular atmospheric patterns on coincidental winter wind generation and weather-related electricity demand is investigated here, with a focus on blocking in the North Atlantic/European sector. The occurrences of such patterns in the 2009–10 and 2010–11 winters are examined, and 2010–11 in particular was found to be unusual in a long-term context. The results are discussed in terms of the relevance to long-term planning and investment in the electricity system.

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

46 CFR 72.40-10 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 3 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 72.40-10 Section 72.40-10 Shipping COAST... and Guards § 72.40-10 Storm rails. (a) Suitable storm rails shall be installed in all passageways and at the deckhouse sides where passengers or crew might have normal access. Storm rails shall be...

Thyroid storm precipitated by duodenal ulcer perforation.

PubMed

Natsuda, Shoko; Nakashima, Yomi; Horie, Ichiro; Ando, Takao; Kawakami, Atsushi

2015-01-01

Thyroid storm is a rare and life-threatening complication of thyrotoxicosis that requires prompt treatment. Thyroid storm is also known to be associated with precipitating events. The simultaneous treatment of thyroid storm and its precipitant, when they are recognized, in a patient is recommended; otherwise such disorders, including thyroid storm, can exacerbate each other. Here we report the case of a thyroid storm patient (a 55-year-old Japanese male) complicated with a perforated duodenal ulcer. The patient was successfully treated with intensive treatment for thyroid storm and a prompt operation. Although it is believed that peptic ulcer rarely coexists with hyperthyroidism, among patients with thyroid storm, perforation of a peptic ulcer has been reported as one of the causes of fatal outcome. We determined that surgical intervention was required in this patient, reported despite ongoing severe thyrotoxicosis, and reported herein a successful outcome.

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

46 CFR 177.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 7 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 177.920 Section 177.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS (UNDER 100 GROSS TONS) CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENT Rails and Guards § 177.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be...

46 CFR 127.320 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 127.320 Section 127.320 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) OFFSHORE SUPPLY VESSELS CONSTRUCTION AND ARRANGEMENTS Rails and Guards § 127.320 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails must be installed in each passageway and at...

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

46 CFR 116.920 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 116.920 Section 116.920 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) SMALL PASSENGER VESSELS CARRYING MORE THAN 150... and Guards § 116.920 Storm rails. Suitable storm rails or hand grabs must be installed where necessary...

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

DOE PAGES

Halford, Alexa J.; Fraser, Brian J; Morley, Steven Karl; ...

2016-06-08

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we showmore » that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.« less

Dependence of EMIC wave parameters during quiet, geomagnetic storm, and geomagnetic storm phase times

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Halford, Alexa J.; Fraser, Brian J; Morley, Steven Karl

As electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) waves may play an important role in radiation belt dynamics, there has been a push to better include them into global simulations. How to best include EMIC wave effects is still an open question. Recently many studies have attempted to parameterize EMIC waves and their characteristics by geomagnetic indices. However, this does not fully take into account important physics related to the phase of a geomagnetic storm. In this paper we first consider how EMIC wave occurrence varies with the phase of a geomagnetic storm and the SYM-H, AE, and Kp indices. Here we showmore » that the storm phase plays an important role in the occurrence probability of EMIC waves. The occurrence rates for a given value of a geomagnetic index change based on the geomagnetic condition. Then in this study we also describe the typical plasma and wave parameters observed in L and magnetic local time for quiet, storm, and storm phase. These results are given in a tabular format in the supporting information so that more accurate statistics of EMIC wave parameters can be incorporated into modeling efforts.« less

Analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the wind speed prediction during extreme storms in the NE U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Delle Monache, L.; Alessandrini, S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy of weather forecasts in Northeast U.S. has become very important in recent years, given the serious and devastating effects of extreme weather events. Despite the use of evolved forecasting tools and techniques strengthened by increased super-computing resources, the weather forecasting systems still have their limitations in predicting extreme events. In this study, we examine the combination of analog ensemble and Bayesian regression techniques to improve the prediction of storms that have impacted NE U.S., mostly defined by the occurrence of high wind speeds (i.e. blizzards, winter storms, hurricanes and thunderstorms). The predicted wind speed, wind direction and temperature by two state-of-the-science atmospheric models (WRF and RAMS/ICLAMS) are combined using the mentioned techniques, exploring various ways that those variables influence the minimization of the prediction error (systematic and random). This study is focused on retrospective simulations of 146 storms that affected the NE U.S. in the period 2005-2016. In order to evaluate the techniques, leave-one-out cross validation procedure was implemented regarding 145 storms as the training dataset. The analog ensemble method selects a set of past observations that corresponded to the best analogs of the numerical weather prediction and provides a set of ensemble members of the selected observation dataset. The set of ensemble members can then be used in a deterministic or probabilistic way. In the Bayesian regression framework, optimal variances are estimated for the training partition by minimizing the root mean square error and are applied to the out-of-sample storm. The preliminary results indicate a significant improvement in the statistical metrics of 10-m wind speed for 146 storms using both techniques (20-30% bias and error reduction in all observation-model pairs). In this presentation, we discuss the various combinations of atmospheric predictors and techniques and illustrate how the

On the watch for geomagnetic storms

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Arthur W.; Brown, William M.

1997-01-01

Geomagnetic storms, induced by solar activity, pose significant hazards to satellites, electrical power distribution systems, radio communications, navigation, and geophysical surveys. Strong storms can expose astronauts and crews of high-flying aircraft to dangerous levels of radiation. Economic losses from recent geomagnetic storms have run into hundreds of millions of dollars. With the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) as the lead agency, an international network of geomagnetic observatories monitors the onset of solar-induced storms and gives warnings that help diminish losses to military and commercial operations and facilities.

Electrical storms and their prognostic implications.

PubMed

Awan, Zahid Aslam; ul Hassan, Mahmood; Bangash, Kamran; Shah, Bakhtawar; Noor, Lubna

2009-01-01

Prevention of sudden cardiac death has always been a challenge for electrophysiologists and to date, automatic implantable cardiovertor defibrillator (AICD) is found to be the only remedy. This device delivers an intracardiac shock whenever it senses a fatal ventricular arrhythmia in order to achieve sinus rhythm. If the delivery of these intracardiac shocks becomes frequent, the situation is declared as an electrical storm. This article deals with the frequency, precipitating factors and prevention of electrical storms. One hundred and ten episodes of electrical storms (a total of 668 shocks) were retrospectively analysed in 25 recipients of automatic implantable cardioverter defibrillators. ECG, echocardiography, serum electrolytes, urea and creatinine were done for all the patients, and they were hospitalized for a minimum of 24 hours. During the 3 year study period, all the 25 patients with an implantable cardiovertor defibrillator, on an average, received one shock per two years. However, 12 out of these 25 patients (50%) had more than two shocks within 24 hours. Most of these patients with electrical storms were having active ischemia, electrolytes imbalances or renal failure. Electrical storms are common in patients with coronary artery disease with impaired left ventricular functions. Ischemia, electrolytes imbalances and renal failure predispose to the electrical storms. Electrical Storms are predictors of poor prognosis.

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

46 CFR 108.221 - Storm rails.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46 Shipping 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Storm rails. 108.221 Section 108.221 Shipping COAST GUARD, DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY (CONTINUED) A-MOBILE OFFSHORE DRILLING UNITS DESIGN AND EQUIPMENT Construction and Arrangement Rails § 108.221 Storm rails. Each unit must have a storm rail in the following...

Improvements of Storm Surge Modelling in the Gulf of Venice with Satellite Data: The ESA Due Esurge-Venice Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Biasio, F.; Bajo, M.; Vignudelli, S.; Papa, A.; della Valle, A.; Umgiesser, G.; Donlon, C.; Zecchetto, S.

2016-08-01

Among the most detrimental natural phenomena, storm surges heavily endanger the environment, the economy and the everyday life of sea-side countries and coastal zones. Considering that 120.000.000 people live in the Mediterranean area, with additional 200.000.000 presences in Summer for tourism purposes, the correct prediction of storm surges is crucial to avoid fatalities and economic losses. Earth Observation (EO) can play an important role in operational storm surge forecasting, yet it is not widely diffused in the storm surge community. In 2011 the European Space Agency (ESA), through its Data User Element (DUE) programme, financed two projects aimed at encouraging the uptake of EO data in this sector: eSurge and eSurge-Venice (eSV). The former was intended to address the issues of a wider users' community, while the latter was focused on a restricted geographical area: the northern Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Venice. Among the objectives of the two projects there were a number of storm surge hindcast experiments using satellite data, to demonstrate the improvements on the surge forecast brought by EO. We report here the results of the hindcast experiments of the eSV project. They were aimed to test the sensitivity of a storm surge model to a forcing wind field modified with scatterometer data in order to reduce the bias between simulated and observed winds. Hindcast experiments were also performed to test the response of the storm surge model to the assimilation, with a dual 4D-Var system, of satellite altimetry observations as model errors of the initial state of the sea surface level. Remarkable improvements on the storm surge forecast have been obtained for what concerns the modified model wind forcing. Encouraging results have been obtained also in the assimilation experiments.

The eSurge-Venice project: how satellite data can improve the storm surge forecasting in the northern Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zecchetto, Stefano; Vignudelli, Stefano; Donlon, Craig; De Biasio, Francesco; Della Valle, Antonio; Umgiesser, Georg; Bajo, Marco

The Data User Element (DUE) program of the European Space Agency (ESA) is funding two projects (eSurge and eSurge-Venice) aimed to demonstrate the improvement of the storm surge forecasting through the use of Earth Observation (EO) data. eSurge-Venice (http://www.esurge-venice.eu/), is specifically focused on the Gulf of Venice, northern Adriatic Sea. The project objectives are: a) Select a number of Storm Surge Events occurred in the Venice lagoon since 1999; b) Provide the available satellite EO data related to the Storm Surge Events, mainly satellite winds and altimeter data, as well as all the available in-situ data and model forecasts; c) Provide a demonstration Near Real Time service (eSurge-Venice live) of EO data products and services in support of operational and experimental forecasting and warning services; d) Run a number of re-analysis cases, both for historical and contemporary storm surge events, to demonstrate the usefulness of EO data. Present storm surge models use atmospheric model wind fields as forcing. These are know to underestimate the wind in small basins like the Adriatic Sea (~1000 km by 300 km), where the orography plays an important role in shaping the winds. Therefore there is the need to verify and tune the atmospheric model wind fields used in the storm surge modeling, an activity which can easily done using satellite scatterometer winds. The project is now in the middle of his life, and promising preliminary results have been achieved using satellite scatterometer wind data to forge the atmospheric model wind fields forcing the storm surge model. This contribution will present the methodology adopted to tune the model wind fields according to the bias with scatterometer winds and the improvements induced in the storm surge model hindcast.

Storms and Moons

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

The New Horizons Long Range Reconnaissance Imager (LORRI) took this 2-millisecond exposure of Jupiter at 04:41:04 UTC on January 24, 2007. The spacecraft was 57 million kilometers (35.3 million miles) from Jupiter, closing in on the giant planet at 41,500 miles (66,790 kilometers) per hour. At right are the moons Io (bottom) and Ganymede; Ganymede's shadow creeps toward the top of Jupiter's northern hemisphere.

Two of Jupiter's largest storms are visible; the Great Red Spot on the western (left) limb of the planet, trailing the Little Red Spot on the eastern limb, at slightly lower latitude. The Great Red Spot is a 300-year old storm more than twice the size of Earth. The Little Red Spot, which formed over the past decade from the merging of three smaller storms, is about half the size of its older and 'greater' counterpart.

Progress in the Study of Coastal Storm Deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiong, Haixian; Huang, Guangqing; Fu, Shuqing; Qian, Peng

2018-05-01

Numerous studies have been carried out to identify storm deposits and decipher storm-induced sedimentary processes in coastal and shallow-marine areas. This study aims to provide an in-depth review on the study of coastal storm deposits from the following five aspects. 1) The formation of storm deposits is a function of hydrodynamic and sedimentary processes under the constraints of local geological and ecological factors. Many questions remain to demonstrate the genetic links between storm-related processes and a variety of resulting deposits such as overwash deposits, underwater deposits and hummocky cross-stratification (HCS). Future research into the formation of storm deposits should combine flume experiments, field observations and numerical simulations, and make full use of sediment source tracing methods. 2) Recently there has been rapid growth in the number of studies utilizing sediment provenance analysis to investigate the source of storm deposits. The development of source tracing techniques, such as mineral composition, magnetic susceptibility, microfossil and geochemical property, has allowed for better understanding of the depositional processes and environmental changes associated with coastal storms. 3) The role of extreme storms in the sedimentation of low-lying coastal wetlands with diverse ecosystem services has also drawn a great deal of attention. Many investigations have attempted to quantify widespread land loss, vertical marsh sediment accumulation and wetland elevation change induced by major hurricanes. 4) Paleostorm reconstructions based on storm sedimentary proxies have shown many advantages over the instrumental records and historic documents as they allow for the reconstruction of storm activities on millennial or longer time scales. Storm deposits having been used to establish proxies mainly include beach ridges and shelly cheniers, coral reefs, estuary-deltaic storm sequences and overwash deposits. Particularly over the past few

Tropical Storm Gaemi approaching Vietnam

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

It is easy to see the effect of the strong northeasterly wind shear battering Tropical Storm Gaemi in satellite imagery from NASA. This true-color image acquired on Oct. 5 shows a large oval-shaped area of showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm, southwest of the exposed center of circulation. NASA's Aqua satellite passed over Tropical Storm Gaemi as it was approaching Vietnam on Oct. 5, 2012 at 0550 UTC (1:50 a.m. EDT). A true-color image of the storm was captured by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument and shows bulk of showers and thunderstorms were clearly to the southwest of the center. The circulation center appears as a ring of concentric bands of clouds northeast of the large rounded area of clouds and showers associated with the storm. On Tuesday, October 5, 2012 at 1500 UTC (11 a.m. EDT), Tropical Storm Gaemi still had maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/65 km/h) as it did 24 hours before. It was located 425 nautical miles (489 miles/787 km) east of Hue, Vietnam near 14.7 North latitude and 117.7 East longitude. Early on October 7, Tropical Storm Gaemi made landfall over Vietnam with wind speeds reported at 34 mph (55 mph), and bringing rainfall of more than 4 inches in some areas of Vietnam. Once ashore, the storm quickly moved inland and rapidly weakened as it headed towards Cambodia. With winds reduced, Gaemi served primarily as a rainmaker, but the rain may bring flooding and landslides to the region. Credit: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response Team NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Sea surface salinity and temperature-based predictive modeling of southwestern US winter precipitation: improvements, errors, and potential mechanisms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, T.; Schmitt, R. W.; Li, L.

2017-12-01

Using 69 years of historical data from 1948-2017, we developed a method to globally search for sea surface salinity (SSS) and temperature (SST) predictors of regional terrestrial precipitation. We then applied this method to build an autumn (SON) SSS and SST-based 3-month lead predictive model of winter (DJF) precipitation in southwestern United States. We also find that SSS-only models perform better than SST-only models. We previously used an arbitrary correlation coefficient (r) threshold, |r| > 0.25, to define SSS and SST predictor polygons for best subset regression of southwestern US winter precipitation; from preliminary sensitivity tests, we find that |r| > 0.18 yields the best models. The observed below-average precipitation (0.69 mm/day) in winter 2015-2016 falls within the 95% confidence interval of the prediction model. However, the model underestimates the anomalous high precipitation (1.78 mm/day) in winter 2016-2017 by more than three-fold. Moisture transport mainly attributed to "pineapple express" atmospheric rivers (ARs) in winter 2016-2017 suggests that the model falls short on a sub-seasonal scale, in which case storms from ARs contribute a significant portion of seasonal terrestrial precipitation. Further, we identify a potential mechanism for long-range SSS and precipitation teleconnections: standing Rossby waves. The heat applied to the atmosphere from anomalous tropical rainfall can generate standing Rossby waves that propagate to higher latitudes. SSS anomalies may be indicative of anomalous tropical rainfall, and by extension, standing Rossby waves that provide the long-range teleconnections.

Observing storm surges from satellite altimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Guoqi

2016-07-01

Storm surges can cause catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to enhance our capabilities of observing and forecasting storm surges for mitigating damage and loss. In this presentation we show examples of observing storm surges around the world using nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy, Igor, and Isaac, as well as other cyclone events. The satellite observations are evaluated against tide-gauge observations and discussed for dynamic mechanisms. We also show the potential of a new wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

Winter is losing its cool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, S.

2017-12-01

Winter seasons have significant societal impacts across all sectors ranging from direct human health to ecosystems, transportation, and recreation. This study quantifies the severity of winter and its spatial-temporal variations using a newly developed winter severity index and daily temperature, snowfall and snow depth. The winter severity and the number of extreme winter days are decreasing across the global terrestrial areas during 1901-2015 except the southeast United States and isolated regions in the Southern Hemisphere. These changes are dominated by winter warming, while the changes in daily snowfall and snow depth played a secondary role. The simulations of multiple CMIP5 climate models can well capture the spatial and temporal variations of the observed changes in winter severity and extremes during 1951-2005. The models are consistent in projecting a future milder winter under various scenarios. The winter severity is projected to decrease 60-80% in the middle-latitude Northern Hemisphere under the business-as-usual scenario. The winter arrives later, ends earlier and the length of winter season will be notably shorter. The changes in harsh winter in the polar regions are weak, mainly because the warming leads to more snowfall in the high latitudes.

Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Norton, C. C.

1985-01-01

A final progress report is presented on the Centralized Storm Information System (CSIS). The primary purpose of the CSIS is to demonstrate and evaluate real time interactive computerized data collection, interpretation and display techniques as applied to severe weather forecasting. CSIS objectives pertaining to improved severe storm forecasting and warning systems are outlined. The positive impact that CSIS has had on the National Severe Storms Forecast Center (NSSFC) is discussed. The benefits of interactive processing systems on the forecasting ability of the NSSFC are described.

Economic Impact Analyses of Interdisciplinary Multi-hazard Scenarios: ShakeOut and ARkStorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wein, A. M.; Rose, A.; Sue Wing, I.; Wei, D.

2011-12-01

U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists are using an interdisciplinary strategy to develop and analyze multi-hazard scenarios to help communities enhance resilience to natural hazard disasters. Two such scenarios are the southern California ShakeOut earthquake and the California ARkStorm winter storm. Both scenarios are multi-hazard: Shakeout ground motions trigger landslides and liquefaction and ARkStorm involves wind, flood, landslide, and coastal hazards. A collaborative scenario-process engages partners and stakeholders throughout the development and use of the scenarios, In doing so, community resilience is enhanced by educating communities about hazards and hazard interdependencies, building networks from scientists to decision makers, exercising emergency management strategies, identifying emergency management issues, and motivating solutions prior to an event. In addition, interdisciplinary scenarios stimulate research on the various steps of analysis (e.g., natural hazard processes, physical damages, societal consequences, and policy connections). In particular, USGS scientists have collaborated with economists to advance methods to estimate the economic impacts (business interruption losses) of disasters. Our economic impact analyses evolved from the economic module in the Federal Emergency Management Agency's loss-estimation tool, HAZUS-MH, to a more encompassing input-output analysis for ShakeOut, to a more sophisticated Computable General Equilibrium model for ARkStorm. The analyses depend on physical damage and restoration time estimates from engineers and geographic analyses of economic assets in hazard zones. Economic resilience strategies are incorporated to represent resourcefulness and ingenuity that avoids potential losses during and after an event. Such strategies operate at three levels of the economy: micro (e.g., ability to catch up on lost production time), meso (e.g., coordination within a sector to share resources), and macro (e

Winter Ecology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birkeland, Karl W.; Halfpenny, James C.

1987-01-01

Discusses some of the ecological variables involved with plant and animal survival during the winter months. Addresses the effects of changing climatic conditions on habitats, foot-loading indexes, and the overall concept of adaptation. Provides some simple teaching activities dealing with winter survival. (TW)

No Calm After the Storm: A Systematic Review of Human Health Following Flood and Storm Disasters.

PubMed

Saulnier, Dell D; Brolin Ribacke, Kim; von Schreeb, Johan

2017-10-01

Introduction How the burden of disease varies during different phases after floods and after storms is essential in order to guide a medical response, but it has not been well-described. The objective of this review was to elucidate the health problems following flood and storm disasters. A literature search of the databases Medline (US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA); Cinahl (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Global Health (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA); Embase (Elsevier; Amsterdam, Netherlands); and PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) was conducted in June 2015 for English-language research articles on morbidity or mortality and flood or storm disasters. Articles on mental health, interventions, and rescue or health care workers were excluded. Data were extracted from articles that met the eligibility criteria and analyzed by narrative synthesis. The review included 113 studies. Poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections, and skin or soft tissue infections all increased after storms. Gastrointestinal infections were more frequent after floods. Leptospirosis and diabetes-related complications increased after both. The majority of changes occurred within four weeks of floods or storms. Health changes differently after floods and after storms. There is a lack of data on the health effects of floods alone, long-term changes in health, and the strength of the association between disasters and health problems. This review highlights areas of consideration for medical response and the need for high-quality, systematic research in this area. Saulnier DD , Brolin Ribacke K , von Schreeb J . No calm after the storm: a systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):568-579.

GPS & GLONASS Observations of Large-Scale Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zakharenkova, I.; Astafyeva, E.; Cherniak, I.

2016-12-01

We investigate signatures of the large-scale travelling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) that they leave in the ground-based total electron content (TEC) during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day Storm. We take advantage of a large number of the ground-based GPS/GNSS receivers to analyze simultaneous LSTIDs propagation in different sectors from very dense and multipoint observations. The region of interest includes the both Northern and Southern American sectors, as well as the whole European sector. We use measurements derived from more than 5000 GPS/GNSS receivers of numerous global and regional GNSS networks. We considerably increase number of available observations by processing signals from not only GPS but also from GLONASS. We retrieve a perturbation component of the resulted TEC maps constructed with high spatial and temporal resolution. LSTIDs originating in the auroral oval and propagating equatorward were clearly identified in both hemispheres. In this report we discuss features of the observed LSTIDs, in particular, 1) similarities and differences of their simultaneous propagation over American and European sectors ; 2) interhemispheric LSTIDs propagation in the American sector; 3) dependence of the LSTIDs characteristic parameters (velocity, wavelength) on the intensification of the auroral activity during the main phase of this storm.

Global differences between moderate and large storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valek, P. W.; Buzulukova, N.; Fok, M. C. H.; Goldstein, J.; Keesee, A. M.; McComas, D. J.; Perez, J. D.

2015-12-01

The current solar maximum has been relatively quiet compared to previous solar cycles. Whereas numerous moderate storms (Dst < -50 nT) have occurred, there have been only a small number of large (Dst < - 100 nT) and extreme (Dst < -200 nT) storms. Throughout this sequence of storms, the Two Wide-angle Imaging Neutral-atom Spectrometers (TWINS) mission has since 2008 observed the inner magnetosphere. TWINS consists of two ENA cameras flown aboard two separate spacecraft in Molniya orbits. TWINS images the ENA emissions from the inner magnetosphere across a broad range of energies (1 to 100 keV for H, 16 to 256 keV for O). This allows TWINS to observe the evolution in space and time of the trapped and precipitating particles most relevant for storm time dynamics on very high time scales (i.e., minutes). Here we will present the differences seen between moderate storms and the two large storms of 17 March 2015 (Dst < -223, St. Patrick's day storm) and 22 June 2015 (Dst < -195 nT). We will present composition-separated ENA observations of the inner magnetosphere covering the both the medium (1 to 30 keV) and high (30 to > 100 keV) energy ranges, and describe how the inner magnetosphere evolves during storm time.

Tropical Storms Bud and Dera

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Like dancers pirouetting in opposite directions, the rotational patterns of two different tropical storms are contrasted in this pair of Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) nadir-camera images. The left-hand image is of Tropical Storm Bud, acquired on June 17, 2000 (Terra orbit 2656) as the storm was dissipating. Bud was situated in the eastern Pacific Ocean between Socorro Island and the southern tip of Baja California. South of the storm's center is a vortex pattern caused by obstruction of the prevailing flow by tiny Socorro Island. Sonora, Mexico and Baja California are visible at the top of the image. The right-hand image is of Tropical Cyclone Dera, acquired on March 12, 2001. Dera was located in the Indian Ocean, south of Madagascar. The southern end of this large island is visible in the top portion of this image. Northern hemisphere tropical storms, like Bud, rotate in a counterclockwise direction, whereas those in the southern hemisphere, such as Dera, rotate clockwise. The opposite spins are a consequence of Earth's rotation. Each image covers a swath approximately 380 kilometers wide. Image courtesy NASA/JPL/GSFC/LaRC, MISR Team

Tropical Storms Bud and Dera

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-04

Like dancers pirouetting in opposite directions, the rotational patterns of two different tropical storms are contrasted in this pair of MISR nadir-camera images. The left-hand image is of Tropical Storm Bud, acquired on June 17, 2000 (Terra orbit 2656) as the storm was dissipating. Bud was situated in the eastern Pacific Ocean between Socorro Island and the southern tip of Baja California. South of the storm's center is a vortex pattern caused by obstruction of the prevailing flow by tiny Socorro Island. Sonora, Mexico and Baja California are visible at the top of the image. The right-hand image is of Tropical Cyclone Dera, acquired on March 12, 2001 (Terra orbit 6552). Dera was located in the Indian Ocean, south of Madagascar. The southern end of this large island is visible in the top portion of this image. Northern hemisphere tropical storms, like Bud, rotate in a counterclockwise direction, whereas those in the southern hemisphere, such as Dera, rotate clockwise. The opposite spins are a consequence of Earth's rotation. Each image covers a swath approximately 380 kilometers wide. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA03400

Stratospheric minor species vertical distributions during polar winter by balloon borne UV-Vis spectrometry

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pommereau, J. P.; Piquard, J.

1994-01-01

A light, relatively cheap and easy to operate balloonborne UV-visible spectrometer was designed for investigating ozone photochemistry in the Arctic winter. The instrument was flown 11 times during the European Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Experiment (EASOE) in winter 1991-92 in Northern Scandinavia. The first simultaneous measurements of vertical distributions of aerosols, PSC's, O3, NO2 and OClO inside the vortex during flight no. 6 on 16 January, in cold conditions are reported, which show that nitrogen oxides were almost absent (lower than 100 ppt) in the stratosphere below 22 km, while a layer of relatively large OClO concentration (15 ppt) was present at the altitude of the minimum temperature.

The use of coastal altimetry to support storm surge studies in project eSurge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cipollini, P.; Harwood, P.; Snaith, H.; Vignudelli, S.; West, L.; Zecchetto, S.; Donlon, C.

2012-04-01

One of the most promising applications of the new field of coastal altimetry, i.e. the discipline aiming to recover meaningful estimates of geophysical parameters (sea level, significant wave height and wind speed) from satellite altimeter data in the coastal zone, is the study of storm surges. The understanding and realistic modelling of surges supports both preparation and mitigation activities and should eventually bring enormous societal benefits, especially to some of the world's poorest countries (like Bangladesh). Earth Observation data have an important role to play in storm surge monitoring and forecasting, but the full uptake of these data by users (such as environmental agencies and tidal prediction centres) must first be encouraged by showcasing their usefulness, and then supported by providing easy access. Having recognized the above needs, The European Space Agency has recently launched a Data User Element (DUE) project called eSurge. The main purposes of eSurge are a) to contribute to an integrated approach to storm surge, wave, sea-level and flood forecasting through Earth Observation, as part of a wider optimal strategy for building an improved forecast and early warning capability for coastal inundation; and b) to increase the use of the advanced capabilities of ESA and other satellite data for storm surge applications. The project is led by Logica UK, with NOC (UK), DMI (Denmark), CMRC (Ireland) and KNMI (Netherlands) as scientific partners. A very important component of eSurge is the development, validation and provision of dedicated coastal altimetry products, which is the focus of the present contribution. Coastal altimetry has a prominent role to play as it measures the total water level envelope directly, and this is one of the key quantities required by storm surge applications and services. But it can also provide important information on the wave field in the coastal strip, which helps the development of more realistic wave models that in

Large Geomagnetic Storms: Introduction to Special Section

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gopalswamy, N.

2010-01-01

Solar cycle 23 witnessed the accumulation of rich data sets that reveal various aspects of geomagnetic storms in unprecedented detail both at the Sun where the storm causing disturbances originate and in geospace where the effects of the storms are directly felt. During two recent coordinated data analysis workshops (CDAWs) the large geomagnetic storms (Dst < or = -100 nT) of solar cycle 23 were studied in order to understand their solar, interplanetary, and geospace connections. This special section grew out of these CDAWs with additional contributions relevant to these storms. Here I provide a brief summary of the results presented in the special section.

Winter precipitation changes during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age in arid Central Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fohlmeister, Jens; Plessen, Birgit; Dudashvili, Alexey Sergeevich; Tjallingii, Rik; Wolff, Christian; Gafurov, Abror; Cheng, Hai

2017-12-01

The strength of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is considered to be the main driver of climate changes over the European and western Asian continents throughout the last millennium. For example, the predominantly warm Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the following cold period of the Little Ice Age (LIA) over Europe have been associated with long-lasting phases with a positive and negative NAO index. Its climatic imprint is especially pronounced in European winter seasons. However, little is known about the influence of NAO with respect to its eastern extent over the Eurasian continent. Here we present speleothem records (δ13C, δ18O and Sr/Ca) from the southern rim of Fergana Basin (Central Asia) revealing annually resolved past climate variations during the last millennium. The age control of the stalagmite relies on radiocarbon dating as large amounts of detrital material inhibit accurate 230Th dating. Present-day calcification of the stalagmite is most effective during spring when the cave atmosphere and elevated water supply by snow melting and high amount of spring precipitation provide optimal conditions. Seasonal precipitation variations cause changes of the stable isotope and Sr/Ca compositions. The simultaneous changes in these geochemical proxies, however, give also evidence for fractionation processes in the cave. By disentangling both processes, we demonstrate that the amount of winter precipitation during the MCA was generally higher than during the LIA, which is in line with climatic changes linked to the NAO index but opposite to the higher mountain records of Central Asia. Several events of strongly reduced winter precipitation are observed during the LIA in Central Asia. These dry winter events can be related to phases of a strong negative NAO index and all results reveal that winter precipitation over the central Eurasian continent is tightly linked to atmospheric NAO modes by the westerly wind systems.

Beach morphodynamics and types of foredune erosion generated by storms along the Emilia-Romagna coastline, Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armaroli, Clara; Grottoli, Edoardo; Harley, Mitchell D.; Ciavola, Paolo

2013-10-01

The objectives of this study are to examine the response of a dune and beach system on the Adriatic coastline in northern Italy to the arrival of storms, compare it with seasonal (months) and medium-term (3-year) morphodynamic change, and evaluate results predicted by the numerical model XBeach. The studied coastline stretches 4 km from the Bevano River mouth to the north of the site to the township of Lido di Classe to the south, where the beach is protected by coastal structures. Fieldwork consisted of topographic profile surveys using RTK-DGPS technology (7 times over an approx. 3-year period). 103 samples of surface sediment were collected along 20 of the cross-shore profiles at 6 distinct cross-shore positions, selected on the basis of morphological beach characteristics. Data analyses of dune and beach slopes enabled the study area to be divided into 6 separate morphological zones using the spatial (longshore and cross-shore) variation of morphologies located on the backshore and intertidal beach observed in a preliminary survey of the area. Other criteria were a spatial consistency in beach slopes and/or presence/absence of intertidal morphologies identified in the aerial photographs and Lidar data. The swash zone slope did not show any significant variability for the entire area. A weak seasonal trend in the variability of the mean foredune slope was observed, with steeper slopes typically during winter and flatter slopes during summer. Analysis of grain size revealed that the beach sediment is well-sorted fine sand tending to medium, with a decreasing trend in size from the Bevano River mouth southwards towards Lido di Classe. According to the Masselink and Short (1993) classification, the natural part of the study site has an Intermediate Barred Beach (IBB) and following the Short (1999) classification, results in a modally LBT (longshore bar-trough) or LTT (low tide terrace) with a small section being TBR (transverse bar and rip). Storms are considered

Sand/dust storm processes in Northeast Asia and associated large-scale circulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y. Q.; Hou, Q.; Zhou, C. H.; Liu, H. L.; Wang, Y. Q.; Niu, T.

2008-01-01

This paper introduces a definition of sand/dust storm process as a new standard and idea of sand/dust storm (SDS) groups a number of SDS-events in Northeast Asia. Based on the meteorological data from WMO/GOS network, 2456 Chinese surface stations and NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, the sand/dust storm processes in Northeast Asia in spring 2000-2006 are investigated. And the evolutions of anomalies of general circulation in the troposphere are analyzed by comparing the spring having most and least occurrences of SDS in year 2006 and 2003. Associated with the noticeably increased occurrence of SDS processes in spring 2006, the anomalies in 3-D structure of general circulation especially in the mid-and high latitudes of the Northen Hemisphere (NH) are revealed. The transition period from the winter of 2005 to spring 2006 has witnessed a fast-developed high center over the circumpolar vortex area in the upper troposphere, which pushes the polar vortex more southwards to mid-latitudes with a more extensive area over the east NH. In spring 2006, there are the significant circulation anomalies in the middle troposphere from the Baikal Lake to northern China with a stronger southward wind anomaly over Northeast Asia. Compared with a normal year, stronger meridional wind with a southward wind anomaly also in the lower troposphere prevail over the arid and semiarid regions in Mongolia and northern China during spring 2006. The positive anomalies of surface high pressure registered an abnormal high of 4-10 hPa in the Tamil Peninsular make a stronger cold air source for the repeated cold air outbreak across the desert areas in spring 2006 resulting in the most frequent SDS seasons in the last 10 years in Northeast Asia.

Mapping hurricane rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, C.; Mason, R.R.; Blanchard, S.F.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of affected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-h intervals from midnight (00:00 hours) through noon (12:00 hours) on 24 September 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared with the extent of flood inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks. ?? 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Mapping Hurricane Rita inland storm tide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Berenbrock, Charles; Mason, Jr., Robert R.; Blanchard, Stephen F.; Simonovic, Slobodan P.

2009-01-01

Flood-inundation data are most useful for decision makers when presented in the context of maps of effected communities and (or) areas. But because the data are scarce and rarely cover the full extent of the flooding, interpolation and extrapolation of the information are needed. Many geographic information systems (GIS) provide various interpolation tools, but these tools often ignore the effects of the topographic and hydraulic features that influence flooding. A barrier mapping method was developed to improve maps of storm tide produced by Hurricane Rita. Maps were developed for the maximum storm tide and at 3-hour intervals from midnight (0000 hour) through noon (1200 hour) on September 24, 2005. The improved maps depict storm-tide elevations and the extent of flooding. The extent of storm-tide inundation from the improved maximum storm-tide map was compared to the extent of flood-inundation from a map prepared by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The boundaries from these two maps generally compared quite well especially along the Calcasieu River. Also a cross-section profile that parallels the Louisiana coast was developed from the maximum storm-tide map and included FEMA high-water marks.

Jupiter Swirling Pearl Storm

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-03-30

This image, taken by the JunoCam imager on NASA's Juno spacecraft, highlights a swirling storm just south of one of the white oval storms on Jupiter. The image was taken on March 27, 2017, at 2:12 a.m. PDT (5:12 a.m. EDT), as the Juno spacecraft performed a close flyby of Jupiter. At the time the image was taken, the spacecraft was about 12,400 miles (20,000 kilometers) from the planet. Citizen scientist Jason Major enhanced the color and contrast in this image, turning the picture into a Jovian work of art. He then cropped it to focus our attention on this beautiful example of Jupiter's spinning storms. https://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21387

Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

2012-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when